2022 Kentucky Derby Handicapping Analysis
Here is one final look at the Derby, in what looks to be a very competitive and confusing race. There are so many factors involved you just have pick out a couple of horses and stick with them otherwise it’s going to get way too complicated. Here is my analysis of the race, and good luck to everyone. ~ Steve Haskin
2022 Kentucky Derby Handicapping Analysis
By Steve Haskin
STICKING WITH Z FAVORITE
I believe this year’s Kentucky Derby is top heavy, with a great deal of depth down to the top seven or eight. I can’t look past one or two longshots as win candidates, so this looks more like an exotics race. There may be too many horses to box in the trifectas unless you can narrow it down to five horses you’re high on, so it is best to find one or two you really like to win and key them in the trifectas with as many as you wish.
If you read my Derby Sleeper column from October 18 you will understand why I am too committed to Zandon to go off him now. In addition, he fits the Kentucky profile in all categories and no one has worked better than him. And you sure can’t knock post 10, which gives him a number of options to be placed wherever Flavien Prat wants him.
I don’t bet favorites in the Derby, so my wagers would only include him in all exotics. But Zandon, after the long journey from that maiden race back in October, is my pick, with another of my early favorites right there. I want to see Zandon no farther back than midpack, so he needs to break sharper than he did in his last two races. We know he has early speed from his first two races. He was able to sit right off the pace in the Remsen. Of course now that he’s had three two-turn races you just have to hope he hasn’t gotten into the habit of taking way back and can use that tactical speed we know he has. But it is reassuring to know that if he is farther back he has the ability to weave his way through traffic, as he demonstrated in the Blue Grass.
The other horse I alluded to whose reputation has suffered recently, going from the Derby favorite most of the year and my No. 1-ranked horse for 10 weeks to 20-1 on the morning line is Smile Happy. Although I admit on the surface he does not look as strong as he did going into the year or even after the Risen Star, I still think he is on an upward spiral and could be ready to peak on Derby Day. Some feel because he could not handle Zandon in the final furlong of the Blue Grass and being a son of Runhappy he is suspect at 1 ¼ miles. But he has one of the strongest and most classic female families I have ever seen. And Runhappy is not exactly bred to be a sprinter, being by a Kentucky Derby winner, out of a mare by a Belmont and Breeders’ Cup Classic winner.
There are several factors regarding his performance in the Blue Grass Stakes that must be addressed. First, you have to remember he was given a pretty easy race in the Risen Star, with Corey Lanerie never asking him to run until it was way too late. That is because of an issue he had last year and they didn’t want to do too much with him going 1 1/8 miles off a layoff. Then in the Blue Grass he drew post 10 and got hung five-wide on the first turn. Lanerie then moved him up early down the backstretch to stay close to the loose on the lead Emmanuel. He was able to put Emmanuel, a very talented horse, away and open a clear lead at the eighth pole. After all that, I can’t be down on him for getting passed by Zandon. Despite getting beat 2 ½ lengths he got the same Thoro-Graph number as Zandon. He came out of the race a bit tired, drinking a lot of water, which means he really needed this this race and should be much fitter now.
I have had Smile Happy and Zandon ranked 1,2 almost every week and I am still high on both horses, with Zandon obviously having made greater strides in the last month. The three who also look like strong win candidates are Epicenter, Mo Donegal, and Messier. White Abarrio could be a big overlay, with Simplification a forgotten horse. The two longshots who could win this race are Tiz the Bomb and Crown Pride, although the latter is getting big buzz with his stunning works and overall appearance. As for Taiba, I have no clue what to do with him. He is the fastest horse in the field, but I just cannot bet a horse with two lifetime starts and only one work in the past four weeks. If he is a freak, which is very possible, then he surely can win, which would turn the whole process of handicapping the Derby upside down, leaving no boundaries. I love the way he moves over the track and you can see the great extension he has to his stride. He is one horse you have to go by your gut feeling.
TRAINING:
Most everyone is looking good in the morning, but the ones who have stood out to me are Zandon, Crown Pride, and Charge It. I also love the way White Abarrio looks out there every morning but he hasn’t done any serious training at Churchill so it’s difficult to get a good line on him other than his works at Gulfstream have been terrific. At Churchill he’s done everything right and is really into the bit in his gallops and just makes a great overall appearance.
Zandon’s work was one of the best I’ve seen in a long time, the way he glides over the track with long fluid strides and does everything smoothly and on his own. He is all class in everything he does.
Crown Pride’s training has caught everyone’s eye and his routine isn’t anything we’ve seen before. The bottom line with him is that he is loving the track and his works and gallops have been flawless. He final work on Wednesday – a half in :46 3/5 – was sensational the way he was striding out with a final quarter in a brilliant :22 and change. In his last two works you had to love the way he finished and how strong he was on the gallop-out. In short, this horse is for real, and the way the Japanese horses have dominated all over the world you have to take him very seriously.
Charge It has been a bit under the radar, but he is another who is loving this track. He is very light on his feet, has a big beautiful stride and does things effortlessly. I was taken with his mechanics in his maiden victory and was surprised to see him race so greenly in the Florida Derby. But it was only his third career start and he should only improve in the Derby. My only negative with him is having three career starts, so, like Taiba and Zozos, inexperience is a big factor as well having history against him.
The other horse who has impressed me is Tiz the Bomb, who has been extremely sharp, and for a grass/synthetic horse is really handling this track beautifully.
A brief mention must be made of Smile Happy getting a bit lathered around the neck on several mornings. That can be tricky, as it’s something you don’t like seeing, especially on cool mornings, but often it means little or nothing. It all depends on the horse. It’s been negligible and Kenny McPeek says it’s normal for him so I’m going to ignore it and assume it will not be an issue on Derby Day.
THORO-GRAPH NUMBERS:
As you well know I have been referring to Thoro-Graph all year, looking for the horses who are fast and more important on a good pattern.
The only horse to get a negative number (the lower the number the better) has been Taiba in the Santa Anita Derby, and to accomplish that in his second career start is mind-boggling. If he is the freak many believe him to be and he doesn’t bounce (regress) off that number then who knows what he is capable of on Saturday. We really haven’t seen anything like him before. We’re in uncharted territory trying to handicap him.
Taiba’s stablemate Messier is on a terrific pattern. After getting a career best “1 ½” in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes he was given two months off and then paired up that number in the Santa Anita Derby when he might not have been 100 percent coming off the layoff and having to chase a fast horse in Forbidden Kingdom for most of the race. Having established that strong number he is now likely to improve off it, and it won’t take much improvement to win the Derby.
I also love the pattern my two top horses – Zandon and Smile Happy – are on, as both have shown steady improvement with each race. Zandon’s numbers have been 6 ½..4 ½..2 ¼..and 1 ½, while Smile Happy’s have been been 7 ¼..2..2 ½..1 ½. So as mentioned earlier, Smile Happy ran as fast as Zandon in the Blue Grass Stakes.
The tricky horse is White Abarrio, who has never been considered a really fast horse. But despite the absurdly slow fractions of the Florida Derby (if they are correct) he still improved from a “3” in the Holy Bull Stake to a “1,” which is the second fastest number behind Taiba. I have to admit I don’t know how good this horse is.
I’ve been mentioning Crown Pride’s exceptional training, but it must be noted in his last two starts he has jumped from a “7” in the Hyacinth Stakes on a wet track in Japan to a “2 ½” in the UAE Derby. Who knows how far he can move forward off that?
Other horses who should move forward, but would need to improve at least two points are Epicenter, Mo Donegal, Charge It, and Cyberknife.
WET TRACK:
I am not going to predict which horses will thrive on a wet track, as there a too many variables. I will only say that one horse I believe will move up in the mud is Smile Happy, as his pedigree is loaded with wet track influences.
STRATEGY:
There are number of horses who want to be on or near the lead, which should assure an honest pace. Zozos will have to break sharply and come running from post 19 to get a good position near the lead and not get hung wide, as does Classic Causeway from post 17, but the horse to watch at the break is Epicenter from post 3. He has to two closers inside him, which means he basically is breaking from the rail. With fast horses Summer is Tomorrow in post 4 and Messier in post 6, he will also have to break sharply and either outrun the other two or tuck in right behind them. He just doesn’t want to get shut off having them cut right in front of him while he is full of run. So the key is for him to be able to settle behind them without getting too rank. There is going to be a herd of stalkers all looking to get good position, so we could have quite a cavalry charge going into the first turn.
BETTING:
There are so many horses who can win this race you can go crazy trying to cover your bases without leaving anyone out. So I’m just going to stick with my two horses, and my first inclination not seeing the odds is to key Zandon and Smile Happy in the trifectas with Epicenter, Mo Donegal, Messier, Taiba, Tiz the Bomb, Crown Pride, Charge It, White Abarrio, Simplification, and Cyberknife. You could even add a few more like Zozos, Pioneer of Medina, and Barber Road if you really want to stretch it out, as all three can pick up a piece of it with their top effort. But 10 is sufficient for me.
My key horses in exacta and trifecta boxes are Zandon, Smile Happy, Epicenter, Messier, and Mo Donegal. The last named is one horse I have to key on because of what is so obvious, which are his sensational closing fractions of :35 2/5 and final eighth in :11 4/5 in the Wood Memorial. Yes, the track was fast but he had to overcome a strong speed-biased track to run down a fast and classy horse in the final strides. Unfortunately boxing these horses will not pay much. I’m still trying to figure out what to do with Taiba. Is he a super horse or not? The price horses underneath are Tiz the Bomb, Crown Pride, Simplification, and White Abarrio.
It’s still early, but my sure bets as of Thursday morning, just trying for big exacta payoffs, are Zandon and Smile Happy on top of longshots Crown Pride, Tiz the Bomb, Simplification and potential overlay White Abarrio.
I will also place win bets on Tiz the Bomb, Simplification, and Crown Pride, as I believe all have the talent to pull it off on their best day. I am still high on Simplification, who was really on the muscle Thursday morning and wanting to do more, and he would be my main longshot right now. And finally, if Smile Happy is anywhere near his 20-1 morning line odds I will certainly be getting down on him. I’ll even take 8-1 or 9-1. Most are not giving him much of a chance anymore, but I cannot abandon him at this late date. He may not be the horse I became enamored with last year, but I have to give him one more chance.
Back a few years ago, I played a hunch in the Derby, exacta box(s) with horses in which their sire was trained by the same trainer. Maximum Security, out of New Years Day, and Country House out of Lookin at Lucky were trained by Baffert. There were a couple other combos from Pletcher and another that escapes me now. I played them but unfortunately got DQ’d out of a decent price exacta. This years Derby I played the same combo’s except for the one that counted. Strike it Rich sire, Keen Ice and Epicenter sire, Not This Time were trained by by Dale Romans. Needless to say I’ve been kicking myself.
On Saturday, Belmont runs The Peter Pan which is the traditional prep for The Belmont four weeks later. We can usually count on one or two runners out of The Peter Pan to show up for The Belmont. Rudolphe Brisset brings back We the People who was so disappointing in The Arkansas Derby. We the People was mentioned in Steve Haskin’s Knocking on the Door section as late as week#10. We the People won his first 2 starts very impressively. So impressively that he went off at 2-1 in The Arkansas Derby. A very solid 2nd choice to Secret Oath in the race that was won by Cyberknife at 5-1. In that Arkansas Derby, Ace-jockey Flavien Prat got We the People trapped 5-wide going into the first turn causing him to back off and spotting the field about 5 lengths. The trouble is that he didn’t appear to do much running after that and finished 7th. The Arkansas Derby was probably too much for him in only his 3rd start. I’m not sure where that leaves him going into The Peter Pan. At first glance, there are no monsters in The Peter Pan. Trainer Brisset stays aggressive with the horse after the bad race in Arkansas and Flavien Prat rides him back. We might see the horse that won his first 2 starts so impressively.
One thing that I’ve noticed is that the Oaklawn horses are not running very well away from Oaklawn. With the exception of the filly Secret Oath. There was another one last Saturday in the 13th race at Churchill. The race after The Derby. Life Is Hard, who was so impressive at Oaklawn, went off as the 7-2 favorite and ran up the track to finish 8th.
Besides We the People, Rodolphe Brisset is also running Western River; the Tapit full brother to Creator, the 2016 Belmont Stakes winner. Moreover, Richard Mandella is running Set Sail who has shown flashes of ability.
There may not be any “monsters” going into the Peter Pan Stakes but there could quite easily be a handful of “monsters” coming out of the Pan Pan Stakes that will run right past what we’ve seen in the Kentucky Derby, come the Belmont Stakes renewal.
As speculated, a “monster” has leapt right out of the Peter Pan straight into the Belmont Stakes fire. Moreover, one may suggest that We the People ‘is’ now the one to beat come June, 11.
Epicenter has been confirmed for The Preakness. I think that 6-week break before The Derby will payoff there. All he needs is a decent post position and a realistic pace. If he and Early Voting can keep from running a sub 22-second first quarter like was run in The Derby, they could run one-two all the way around the track. In The Derby, the pacesetters looked like quarterhorses as they ran down the stretch the first time.
I’ve watched the Derby replay several times now. I still can’t figure out what the World Class rider aboard Crown Pride was thinking pushing that suicidal pace. Joel Rosario on Epicenter immediately recognized a “hot pace” and took back. I didn’t like Crown Pride going into the race and none of my losing bets included him. But, I think Crown Pride could have been involved in the finish with a mid-pack trip. He’s a real good horse.
Epicenter was valiant in defeat and was best of the rest. He ran a terrific race. Zandon appeared to be heading to victory, but Epicenter was able to hold him off. Did Zandon “hang” a little bit? Maybe. Maybe the mile and a quarter is just a “bridge too far” for him. He ran his race and was 3rd best on the day. But, nobody was holding off the rocket coming up the rail. I enjoyed Rich Strike’s run much more on the replays and after I cooled off about my failed Derby wagers. He’ll be easy to root for in The Preakness.
While it would be terrific to see Rich Strike win The Preakness and put himself in position for a “Triple Crown” try on June 11th in New York, I doubt that he will get the same pace setup that he got in The Derby. Maybe he’ll be good enough to swallow up the field no matter what the pace is. Rich Strike will still be on a rising numbers pattern. Could he “bounce” after jumping all the way up to a 101 BSF. Sure. But, unlike most people, I always feel like the 2-weeks between The Derby and the Preakness negates the “bounce factor”. Strike while the iron is hot. Rich Strike! Don’t forget that Early Voting, who Chad Brown has rightly been pointing to The Preakness, was unable to hold off Mo Donegal in The Wood Memorial despite a perfect “lone-F” trip. As a fan, I would love to see Rich Strike do it again. But, I’m not sure where my wagering dollars will be going yet. If Epicenter runs back in The Preakness, he might be a “sure thing” sitting just off of Early Voting on a more reasonable pace. Oh! Wait! I forgot that there are no sure things in Horseracing. I’ll wait to see which horses are entered and for post positions before making a commitment.
If Epicenter doesn’t run, Early Voting could get another chance. Steve Haskin has liked the horse and an improving Chad Brown horse is always easy to like. I also like that Chad Brown and Klaravich Stables fought off “Derby Fever” and pointed to The Preakness. I’ll never forget how heavily Taiba was bet in The Derby. Without the Mattress Mac money on Epicenter, would Taiba have gone off favored? That was more than “casual” money being bet on Taiba. He was bet like a “good thing”. I doubt that Taiba having the best last race BSF of 103 attracted that kind of wagering action. My observation was that Taiba was all “keyed up” before the race. Probably disturbed by that huge raucous crowd. That crazy pace might not have suited him. Can Tim Yakteen get Taiba to recover in just 2 weeks from his bad experience in The Derby? IDK.
Now comes word that Kenny McPeek will NOT run Smile Happy back in The Preakness. But, fear not. McPeek reaches deep into his bag of tricks and pulls out Creative Minister to represent his barn in The Preakness. Creative Minister has 2 wins and a second in 3 starts including an impressive daylight win on The Derby undercard. He’s improving. I’m not sure what kind of number he earned for his Saturday Churchill win, but, if it was only an 88 or 89 BSF, he will need to improve “bigtime” again to win The Preakness. Of course, he would also be coming back in just 2 weeks. Without Epicenter or Zandon, he might have a shot.
TommyMc, the opinion in the TDN article that I mentioned below is that Zandon simply got outkicked in the deep stretch by Epi. From my vantage point watching the race here at home on NBC Sports, I would agree.
TommyMc, per the below comment you will see that I too questioned LeMarie’s ride.
I think he made a tactical error that cost Crown Pride finishing in the top 5.
Was hoping he would stay in the US and run in the Belmont. He certainly has the stamina and endurance and speed to have done well in the Belmont.
So far UnOjo, Simplification, Skippylongstocking, and Early Voting are confirmed/highly probable for the Preakness. Taiba and Messier have both returned to California. Decision this weekend on Zandon, Epicenter being discussed. D. Wayne has not made a decision about Ethereal Road or Secret Echo. Other possibilities are Happy Jack, Rattle and Role and Creative Minister.
Rich Strike will have the target on his back in the Preakness and there probably not be the same pace set-up in my opinion. Do not hink that the Derby took much if anything out of Richey and he had plenty left over after the race.
Rich Strike aside, were you surprised, Steve, that Zandon could not get by Epicenter ? Mo Donegal came on like gangbusters to finish 5th. Ortiz had him parked on the rail in the final turn with a wall of horses ahead of him. He decided to take him outside and, according to the form, was 10w before the rider could set him down. If Ortiz had waited, maybe he gets through on the rail as the patient jock from the old River Downs did and Mo bests RS and gets the Roses. But that’s a could’ve been. I was watching him as you mentioned keying on Mo Donegal because of his sensational closing fractions to catch the leader on a speed biased track. You weren’t far from the truth done in by the traffic problems of a 20 horse field and Ortiz’s judgment that his only chance was to swing wide.
Excellent article today on Thoroughbred Daily News, “TDN Derby Rundown” that includes comments from most of the jockeys.
In a year where there were many entrants that had few races…$163 winner was the 2nd most raced with 7 previous..
I thought, after the race, the number of races each runner had raced in beforehand could be relevant in the result. Epicenter, a January colt, had run in one less race than Rich Strike. Zando, a March colt, had run in 3 less races than the winner.
I thought the same….BEFORE the race. 😉
My faith in Zandon was unwavering. The Kentucky Derby hasn’t changed my view either.
No reason it should. He ran a heckuva race.
There is a handful of runners in the Peter Pan Stakes that, should they run well, might frighten the life out of the Belmont Stakes. The Preakness Stakes looks very ordinary considering on who is likely to run.
I have one bad taste in my mouth after the race yesterday and each time I have watched the replay my disappointment turns into anger.
Crown Pride had an excellent chance of being in the money.
His running style has been a stalker.
Why on God’s Green Earth did Christophe Lamaire get into that speed duel (the fastest first half in the history of the Derby) with Summer is Tomorrow then Messier?
Was it to get bragging rights that Crown Pride out ran Messier and Summer is Tomorrow?
Was it arrogance? (Lemaire was the world’s top jockey in 2020, knocking Frankie Dettori out of that spot)
Was it stupidity?
Maybe Lemaire should take some lessons from Sonny Leon before he rides a horse in the United States again.
If Crown Pride was my horse or if I had been his trainer, Lemaire would have gotten a piece of mind after that exhibition and I would not have been “nice”.
Have not heard how Crown Pride came out of the race, only that he was shipping to Chicago today to head for home.
One sure way to ruin a horse is to expect him to deliver everything he has in the first half of the race at those blistering fractions.
Could it have been that Crown Pride was simply too “on the muscle” and wouldn’t relax for Lemaire? The pre-race commentators noted that in the paddock, CP looked like he wanted to run over White Abarrio, who was walking in front of him much of the time.
I watched the pre-race and the walk over and will say yes that Crown Pride was on his toes but he was not the only one. Epicenter was on his as well. The “commentators” said that Taiba was on his as well but I did not see it that way. Taiba was clinging to his pony like a vine, foamy saliva was pouring out of his mouth. I saw no such signs from Crown Pride, he was not sweating etc.
Crown Pride has raced in big fields and before crowds much bigger and louder than the Derby was. He has not, to my knowledge ever had a problem relaxing.
I am, not by the way, the only person who has commented on the ride Lemaire gave the colt. They are as confused by it as I am.
Lynda, your scalding of Christophe Lamaire might be a little unfair if Crown Pride was in the state that arlingtonfan has described. There is not much the jockey can do but strangle the horse back which is, arguably, more detrimental than letting the horse fly.
At least the owners felt good for 60 seconds of the race rather then being disappointed through the full 2 minutes.
Davids, I have watched the replay of the race three times (focusing on Crown Pride) and large screen and in slow motion.
Crown Pride’s ears were flicking back and forth waiting on instruction from Lemaire. He was not running with ears pinned back nor was he fighting Lemaire. Lemaire’s body language does not speak of trying to settle Crown Pride rather encouraging the colt to run full out. That is most clearly evident when Messier challenged Crown Pride.
Lemaire is a big time rider, being at one time the Aga Khan’s first jockey, perhaps they were the instructions – just go? Mind you, many big time jockeys have made mistakes. I basically only saw flashes of the walkover and then bang the start and haven’t replayed the race close up. The disappointment of Zandon not overwhelming the field was heavy but that’s the Kentucky Derby.
I just watched the replay again, and I see what you mean about his ears flicking back and forth and the fact that he’s not fighting Lemaire. Hmm. I was so struck by his behavior in the paddock that I figured he must have been too keyed up to listen to his rider. But that doesn’t seem to be it.
Rich Strike earned a 101 Beyer Speed Figure for his upset Derby win yesterday. Not very fast IMO. I would expect 104-108 for The Derby winner. A fast early pace. They must have come home pretty slow.
Numbers mean ZERO for me. He prevailed!
TommyMc, I think your recollection of the 104-108 range is from another time!
Medina Spirit 102
Maximum Security 101
Justify 103
Always Dreaming 102
Nyquist 103
American Pharoah 105
California Chrome 97
Orb 104
I’ll Have Another 101
Animal Kingdom 103
Agree Eddie! Some become hung up on numbers.
What? 101 is solid. He certainly came home faster than Zandon and Epicenter didn’t he?!
I read on another site his speed (mph) for the last 1/16th mile was clocked @ 44 and change vs. Epicenter and Zandon’s 40 and change.
Rosario never looked left to see Rich Strike coming on the rail, probably thought he had the race in the bag.
In the past 20 years we’ve had four Kentucky Derby winners that paid more than $100.00. That’s 20 per cent of the winners during that time. Maybe that’s something to think about.
Nah…I wouldn’t bet on horses like Mine That Bird or Rich Strike even if I knew they were going to win! 🙂
2022 Derby one of cleanest run ever..
Pace collapse, horses changing position in a big way and for the most part a clean run horse race..
Like every year with 18-20 runners, there were quite a few tough trips yeaterday.
I agree, Matthew. I’d like to think it’s the new gate, but only time will tell.
It is said that every vote counts. In the Kentucky Derby, every point counts. Rich Strike earned a single (1) Derby point for finishing fourth in the Battaglia Stakes on March 5. That one point led to his 21 total points and allowed him entry over Rattle N Roll (20 points).
The absurdly inflated UAE Derby brought its first two finishers to Kentucky, and they proceeded to set the fastest quarter mile and second fastest half mile in Ky Derby history. They finished 13th and 20th.
When Asmussen ran RA, said he would never prevail in Derb. How am I doing?
Really?….
I did,back in ’09. No fan of him.
Richard E. Dawson, (no relation) is the owner of Rich Stike. He owns an oil and natural gas company in Oklahoma.
Had I known my namesake was the owner, prior to the race, surely I would have placed a small win wager on Rich Strike.
In one of my Super P/W wagers, I keyed 3,10,13// 3,10,13// 3,10,13// ALL. Coming down the stretch I thought I had the Super. If Rich Strike had finished 4th instead of winning it, I would have nailed it. Rats! 🙁
I hear you, Bill. I had Epicenter, Zandon, and Simplification in the correct order, but my 4th boxed superfecta choice was the OTHER longshot from the Jeff Ruby, Tawny Port. I seldom bet, so I’m happy with coming close. In 50+ years of following the Derby, I think I’ve picked about four winners.
Hey Bill…I was right there with ya on your picks..I had a $1.00 superfecta box on : 1-3-10-13. I never even looked at # 21 Rich Strike on my program. haha Take care Bill, and GL on your futures bets!!
I waited as long as I could to make my Derby bet and I almost got shut out. TVG almost went down with heavy traffic. It took me a half hour to make my last Win & Place bet. In hindsight, it’s too bad for me that I didn’t get shut out. Next year, I’ll be betting early. This morning, I read that there was record wagering on The Derby card. Like I’ve said, Racing is alive and well. At least on the biggest days. On to Baltimore in 2 weeks. Is there any reason for any Derby horses besides Rich Strike to head for Pimlico? Steve Asmussen likes to run his horses. Didn’t the ill-fated Midnight Bourbon run in all 3 Triple Crown Races last year? I enjoy Preakness Day, but I LOVE Belmont Day. You just know that there will be a couple of “Pletchers” and a couple of “Browns” waiting in the weeds for Rich Strike if he wins The Preakness.
Can The Preakness be another rare occasion when The Derby winner doesn’t go off favored? Like Rachel Alexandra being favored over Derby winner Mine that Bird. The Media seems to be pushing D Wayne Lukas to run in The Preakness. No disrespect, but I don’t think Secret Oath is any Rachel Alexandra. Heck, Calvin Borel jumped off his Derby winner to ride “Rachel” in Maryland. Personally, without knowing which horses will be running, I’d give Early Voting a real hard look in the second jewel of The Triple Crown. If Epicenter comes back in 2 weeks, he would be very tough. But, Epicenter ran very hard yesterday. 2 weeks to figure it out. Hopefully, Steve Haskin will give us some help.
I really don’t think that it’s in Chad Brown’s nature to run Zandon back in 2 weeks unless he would have won The Derby. I think that the chances of Zandon showing up in Baltimore are very low.
Derby winner won’t be favored…Coach thinking about running his filly which in my opinion is a bad idea….
He’s had several ‘bad ideas’ @ expense of his horses.
Agreed…saw little Serena’s Song, #14 in the Big Cap….battling for the early lead going past…saw her trailing second time past. .
Saw her back in ’12 @ farm, no dumb group.
Derby winner over/under 8-1 in Preakness.
Early forecast for Preakness field –
Secret Oath
Taiba
Simplification
Early Voting
Smile Happy
Ethereal Road
Rich Strike
Happy Jack
No decision on Epicenter and Zandon
Unlikely
Mo Donegal
Tawny Port
Zozos
Charge It
Cyberknife
Pioneer of Medina
Not going
Barber Road
Tiz the Bomb
Classic Causeway
Crown Pride (shipping today to Chicago)
Messier
White Abarri
Summer Is Tomorrow (shipping out to Dubai)
Good work, Lynda!
Of the likely runners, Simplification jumps out for me. I believe Rich Strike is a good horses, but I don’t think he will get a dream set up in the Preakness.
I didn’t see any excuses for Mo Donegal except for his usual slow break from the gate. His #1 post isn’t what got him beat IMO. I think that they should skip The Preakness and point for The Belmont where his closing/grinding style could play very well. He ran good yesterday. I think he finished 5th or there-abouts. He just doesn’t have the quick turn of foot like some of the others. But, he keeps on coming.
Agree, :21 3/5 & :45 1/5 and he didn’t hit the board, sheesh!..
Simplification is interesting. He ran real well yesterday and we know that he can show more speed if need be.
Sometimes the good closers don’t make it up in time, he was a neck shy of 4th and went outside after being inside for half the race.
Travers will be the race, this year! Zozos will be there, seasoned and he won’t be shutter shy!
Mattress Mac’s big bet took Epicenter from 5-1 to 4-1. Taiba was really bet hard. He was 5-1 co-favorite for most of the betting period between races. Taiba went off at 5-1 even after Mac dropped the hammer on Epicenter. Taiba looks to have a very bright future. He just needs experience to handle a crowd like that. Which he’ll never see again unless they run him on a Derby undercard. I guess that a Breeders Cup card can get pretty big. Especially at a venue like Keenland. Experience is the key. Steve Haskin said that all along.
Jerry Bailey said that he wanted to change his “pick” after seeing Taiba walk by in the post parade. I completely disagree. While he looked like a beast physically, he was all “keyed up” and may have spent all his energy before the race. I said to myself that I didn’t have to worry about him. Maybe it was the huge crowd. A completely different experience than his 2 races at Santa Anita. Which reminds me, The Derby was Rich Strike’s 8th race. Only Tiz the Bomb had more. Maybe experience counts for something after all.
TommyMc, yes I heard Bailey say that and the other NBC commentator said something about how Taiba was on his toes.
Did not agree with either of their assessments about Taiba.
The colt was clinging to his pony and foamy saliva was pouring from his mouth. He was working that bit big time. Nervous energy or insecurity? As you suggest, I think it was the crowd but also think it was the size of the field both of which go back to lack of experience.
I’ll never take a late entry into the KD lightly again. That 17 LENGTH win in his maiden debut, claiming race or not, was a bright red flag.
BTW, Rich Strike has a terrific pedigree. Sire Keen Ice famously defeated Triple Crown winner American Pharoah in the Travers, and his dam, Gold Strike, was Canadian 3YO filly champion. Rich Strike has two crosses of stout Smart Strike blood close up (2×4) and THREE crosses of Gold Digger/Raise a Native in the first 5 generations (two of them from Mr. Prospector). Keen Ice himself has three crosses of Mr. P. So you’ve got stoutness and an abundance of speed all in one package.
TommyMc, yes I heard Bailey say that and the other NBC commentator said something about how Taiba was on his toes.
Did not agree with either of their assessments about Taiba.
The colt was clinging to his pony and foamy saliva was pouring from his mouth. He was working that bit big time. Nervous energy or insecurity? As you suggest, I think it was the crowd but also think it was the size of the field both of which go back to lack of experience.
duplicate post sorry
Was in wrong race.
MsBlacktype, I too think that Rich Strike has an impressive pedigree both on sire and dam sides.
I looked at it early this morning. Notable in addition to the horses you mention are Kris S, Bold Ruler and Sir Gaylord (out of SomethingRoyale).
Rich Strike was right next to Mo Donegal for most of the race. The difference is that Mo Donegal made his grinding move while Rich Strike “took off” while weaving through traffic. At the break, Sonny Leon immediately headed towards the rail to join Mo Donegal. Really good ride. The owner is right. We all know Sonny Leon now. I think he was the longest shot in the field. I have to admit, I don’t ever remember looking at the horse in the Racing Form until after the race. I was that confident that I would hit a score with the 5 horses I was alive to. Four of the five finished 2nd through 5th. The hardest race in America to hit.
The 2 Kenny McPeek horses finished next to each other. Smile Happy in 8th and Tiz the Bomb 9th.
Corey Lanerie on Smile Happy was following Epicenter until “push came to shove” around the far turn when Epicenter left Smile Happy in his wake. Kenny McPeek has to be hugely disappointed. Maybe he can pull off a surprise in The Belmont. I just don’t think he has any horses that can do it. No offense.
Yes, Rich Strike was indeed the longest shot in the field. I agree; Sonny Leon gave him a terrific ride!
Who would have thought that the key Derby prep races were the Battaglia and Ruby stakes at Turfway! That is why horse racing is so enjoyable: any horse can win, as long as they are in the starting gate, even in the biggest races of the year. Very humbling! Makes those with definitive opinions look pretty foolish! Looking forward to the Preakness, as well as the later 3 year old races…
A month ago: Futures players are like “HEY! I got Taiba in the “all others”, slot, 18-1, YES!!!” He runs upthe track…..RATS! There goes my 18-1…….and they cash, anyway!
What a Derby!! This outcome is worthy of a Steve Haskin take on the whole story.
And how about the longshot, Rich Strike, who was bred and one time owned by no other than Calumet Farm.
It was ultimately a story about good karma. Eric Reed, the trainer lost 26 horses in a barn fire in the middle of the night. All sorts of people came out to help him.
The owner is a hugh Keen Ice fan and only breeds and owns horses with Keen Ice in their pedigree.
And I am so happy for Brad Kelley and Calumet Farm. He deserves this win.
Calumet finally has another Derby winner.
Kudos to the jockey, Sonny Leon, who gave a wonderful ride to Rich Strike.
By the way, I read that Smart Strike, to whom Rich Strike is related to by his dam and sire, was one tough cookie. He required two cones be place in front of his stall.
Standing ovation here for Sonny Leon!
Now that I’ve had a relatively good night’s sleep, I’ve been reflecting on events of yesterday’s 19th hour:
1. WTF?!?!?
2. I believe there were 7 runners that had just 2, 3, or 4 career starts. Zandon ran well to finish a close third. What kept him from winning? Three straight 9f races? Or the lack of experience? The next best finish of those 7 was by Smile Happy in 8th place, 10 lengths behind the winner.
3. Has anyone EVER seen so many horses fan wide (I’m talking 7- to 12-path wide, folks!) as they rounded into the stretch? I think that Simplification and Mo Donegal finished the best of them.
4. The race caller didn’t call Rich Strike’s name until about 50 yards before the finish, just when RS got his head in front of Epicenter.
5. WTF?!?!?
Tom Durkin didn’t call Mine That Bird until he was 5 in front! And he was the best, I thought the Collmus call was pretty good.
In a way, Larry Collmus’ call was fitting because his shock at seeing Rich Strike up there reflected what we were all feeling.
I thought it was Mo Donegal..
Me, too. I was cheering for Mo Donegal, and I thought he was the one closing on the inside. When Rich Strike was called, I said, “That’s not possible. There’s no way this can be happening.” But I was happy for his people, and the horse ran a great race. He deserves a lot of credit.
I though his call was good…until the final seconds. Isn’t that the most important part? 😉
I was reminded of Tom Durkin’s call when Mine That Bird won. He didn’t call that horse at all until he was well in front. I suspect both of them couldn’t believe their eyes and didn’t dare voice what they thought they were seeing.
Sorry I didn’t see that Matthew had already made that observation. My apologies. Larry Colmus is one of my favorite race callers and I forgive him for a moment’s hesitation.
Rewatching that race and again….I think Zandon’s doing it again I thought he was going to go right by….just like he did before….and become a really good horse—and then he didn’t, but you won’t see that racebut every 35 years, thinking of Ferdinand 1986 pace collapse except…..some of the better closers didnt close the Turfway horse did! So …he probably won’t be as tired as the rest, he only ran 3/8! Mine That Bird ran a heckuva Teiple Crown, will #21 run well again in two weeks? He looked plenty heavy in the winners circle….What a historical race, and it shows to Goya, when you think you’ve seen everything, and in a year where practeveryone was saying it is a good crop…..and the $30k CLAIMED horsre wins going away…
I know about Stymie and I know about Lava Man, #21 is already in that group of great claims!..ironic, that I refer to him ad #21….it’s because I can’t remember his name!
The irony of the racing gods, Rich Strike and they certainly struck it rich Saturday
This was the stunner of them all. Ferdinand had been second or third in the G1 Hollywood Futurity, the G2 San Rafael, and the G1 Santa Anita Derby. Giacomo was also in the money in the G1 Hollywood Futurity, the then listed Sham Stakes, and the G2 San Felipe. Even the miraculous Mine That Bird won a graded stakes as a 2 year old.
Right, but they were both pace collapses….
I believe this generation of 3 year olds are slower giving a chance to a 30k claimer. And when u consider the trainer factor of Mcpeek, Brown, Asmussen, and even Pletcher awful record in the Derby, I can see a long shot winning.
lol How did ‘dream horses’ do for u?
Yes, not so impressive when push came to shove, they wilted.
10th place for Zozos not too shabby, right off of that pace and wide both turns, I thought he was falling back to last but he fought, that’s a good horse.
Epicenter and Zandon ran well, Rich Strike ran great, Mo Donegal, Simplification and Barber Road ran okay, and the rest fared poorly. Messier folded like a cheap suitcase on the lead and blocked the winner who had to go around him as he was falling back. Taiba never did any running. Considering the buildup they got, I want a refund on my entertainment costs. Zandon idled when trying to pass Epicenter and needs a different jockey, he showed more fight under Johnnie V. I was disappointed to see how White Abarrio fared, he wasn’t ready for this but no one should assume those outer posts are easy, it’s hard to move in from there and stay near the front, Classic Causeway came up behind him and passed him and that was it.
This race was a throw out for me where Mo Donegal is concerned. Feel somewhat the same way
about White Abarrio. The class of the field was Epicenter and Zandon also right there with him. Simplification
ran a great race too. But the story of an 80-1 longshot, in post position 20, winning the Derby, is something
otherworldly and I was thrilled to see it. Very happy for Rich Strike’s connections. What a Kentucky Derby!
Well, maybe a bunch of them will meet up in the Travers, to rectify matters. I had liked Mo D. but last few days thought he was just okay, not especially good. I thought much the same of Zandon, so he did better than I expected. The first six ran to form, except the winner ran way above it, and the others mostly fell below. I don’t know where they’ll race next, when you lose badly the road comes to an abrupt end, one of the shortcomings of this Derby prep setup. They should have a few more 3 yo races for also rans after the Derby. I guess the Ohio Dby and others serve that purpose. I feel disappointed, don’t think most of them were prepared well enough for the race by their trainers. I was glad to see a closer win and break this trend of only certain types winning, it had badly dumbed down the Derby to be that way. Also very glad to see mysterious SF Racing’s win streak come to an inglorious end, and hope it stays that way.
I guess their last victory was before ’21. Adios again, nonetheless.
Hi Steve
In your final Derby Rankings, you had Zandon ranked at #1, and Epicenter at #2. Box those 2 with every horse in the field, in a $1.00 Trifecta, (at a cost of $108.00) you would have collected $14,870.00. Yah, I know, shoulda, woulda, coulda.
Something to consider in future Kentucky Derbies? 🙂
Javier Castellano with only 2 mounts on Derby weekend????? Anyone have a clue why??
I don’t know why Javier Castellano is in such a slump. I hope to he goes to a top doctor to get checked out.
I was disappointed in his ride on Kathleen O in the Kentucky Oaks. She was boxed in and behind a wall of horses.
Just yesterday, Rich Strike’s trainer Eric Reed was asked the ideal scenario for his horse breaking from post 20:
“Get a good break and work over to the inside,” Reed said. “Start picking them up midway on the backstretch and then pass them all before the finish line!”
You can’t make this stuff up!
First time I’ve EVER bet on a Derby favorite…and THIS happens? As for White Abarrio, maybe that final fraction in the Florida Derby was correct after all. Ugh.
Fractions and final time:
21 3/5 (fastest in Derby history), 45 1/5 (tied for second fastest), 1:10 1/5, 1:36 4/5, 2:02 3/5
Thank God we had 7:30 reservations at our favorite Italian restaurant and were able to escape to the real world
Or join it…
LOL. Hope you didn’t suffer an UPSET stomach.
Steve, did you see Three Technique finally got a set up that suited him. That was nice.
Just let it go, they’ll never run in a 20 horse field at 10f again and the Breeders’ Cup Classic is at Keeneland this year. My favorite three year old Classic is the Belmont Stakes, the Kentucky Derby is just a prep. Ha ha But true!!
Yeah, we’ll get over this eventually. By the fall, we’ll be watching the 2-year-olds race and wondering which ones are Derby material. Maybe the maiden claiming races will get a bit more attention!
Weeks ago, said Zedan pushing his horse off a cliff. Am I wrong?
No, you were not, Mike. I thought it was foolish as well. Not great for racing to see a horse with
so little foundation go into the Derby. Justify was an unique and even he ended up with issues.
Paula, owner is an full blown egomanic,who placed his horse under bus.
Yup. I never gave Taiba any serious consideration. Horseplayers either loved or hated his chances in the Derby. There wasn’t much middle ground.
Never gave him or Messier a look.
1) Epicenter was up near the pace he ran by far the best race….2) Zandon was gifted the race, and didn’t close the deal….3) winner steadied, in the stretch, and won, anyway 4)…That was not anything like a regular race I’m not ready to say all of the pace types were weak, it was a record run down the first quarter…5) Epicenter and Zandon should win some important races, but if Zandon is going to win, Epicenter had better not be in the race.
I have to wonder if Steve will still think it’s worth it after this one…
The fun is in the prep races, the Kentucky Derby is always an ugly race with luck triumphant. Hope springs eternal.
I’m having serious doubts
Steve, the result was a major letdown but come January, 2023 you’ll be itching to get right back into it. I sincerely hope so, anyway.
The one wish, that will never be fore-filled, is they reduce the field to suit the size of the track.
Does anyone know the order of finish?
I was focused on Epicenter and Zandon and lost sight of everyone else, except it looked like Crown Pride was backed off.
Horse Racing Nation.
Thanks Davids.
Your thoughts on the race?
Lynda, if Zandon had more experience he may have finished stronger. Nothing, Chad Brown pointedly stated he wants Zandon for a long career not to win just one race. We’ll see if Zandon is a true 10f horse at the end of the year.
Never read too much into the result of the Kentucky Derby except it’s a good prep for the Preakness Stakes. Ha ha True though.
Also Bob’s 2 ‘Super Horses’. Fizzled!
Anybody remember the old newspaper big picture of the Derby finish? With nameplates. ..
Hell yeah! Used to save ’em…
Nice going Rich S!
Wow! I love an upstart longshot! What a run by Rich Strike.
There should have been an inquiry. For interference with logic!!!
As they say, anything can happen in horse racing! I didn’t pick Rich Strike, but I can’t help but be happy for the trainer since he lost 23 horses in a barn fire in 2016. To draw into the race the day before, go off at 80-1, and win! What a story! Sounds like something out of a movie.
Is he the biggest longshot ever to win the Derby? Certainly he’s the biggest in recent memory. Mine That Bird was “only” 50-1.
No one did.
arlingtonfan, I agree.
I am so happy for the connections!
Biggest since the year after the Titanic sank!
Didnt it hit a keen ice?
I didn’t know who his sire was until Bloodhorse had it. Lol
Ah yes, now I see–Donerail in 1913 at 91-1 was the only winner with longer odds. Thanks for the tip!
The world ain’t always what it seems gunny… except now y’all need that shovel to prove it…
Like many people, I thought that I was looking good with 3 members of my 5 horse trifecta box(Epicenter, Zandon, and Simplification) in control at the 16th pole. I’ll bet I’m not the only one.
No Tommy, you weren’t, I was thinking okay this is good, and then this horse dropped in from the clouds and boom lol
Saw this comment on another social media site.
LOL
Yep, this about sums it up.
Literally have no idea why I even wasted 2 months of my life pouring over these preps… to watch a horse with zero chance, beaten by everyone convincingly everywhere, just casually stroll by at 80-1.
And then watch this horse spend 5 minutes trying to kill everyone trying to calm him down.
Just like… what the %*$@
Feeling the pain, especially without this horse I bagged a super. This hurts. So much time spent and all would have been swell without the scratch of Ethereal Road. OUCH!
Skin will get thicker after this.
Me too. Went all for fourth, so if Rich Strike was 4th or worse
How about 4 months
DRF said best Beyer 64 I’m like whattttt lol
OMG how funny!!
Another Derby disappointment. The horse won his 2nd race in The Kentucky Derby from the #20 post. Good for him. He’s a big-time closer that got his perfect set-up. The one thing is that the horse had won his only race at Churchill by 17 lengths in a $30,000 Maiden Claimer. BTW, he was claimed that day away from Joe Sharp. I assume by the current connections. By Keen Ice from a Smart Strike mare. The horse has no speed at all, but he came into the race with a nice rising numbers pattern. Has there ever been a #21 winner of The Derby? IDK. Maybe in the days before the 20-horse limit. He’d been beaten by Epicenter, Tawny Port, and Tiz the Bomb twice. No disrespect to the horse or connections. I’m stunned & shocked to say the least.
Never do I go on dumb numbers. Horse deserves where he is. Said if i lose, which I did, would be on me.
Rode the rail (rail was supposed to be bad)….big steady at 1/8 pole behind Messier…..caught Epicenter who was close to that toxic pace and Zandon who was given a good ride but hung like a Van Gogh—-the only way I cash is with Zandon, on my two futures plays and I THOUGHT he was going to…..
I think you are right about Zandon. He looked like he was going to pass Epicenter for sure. Epicenter ran his eyeballs out.
Great ride for the winner. My $2 went out the window when the French jockey thought he was going to win running down the speed horses up front. Not sure how to say off the horse in French or Japanese but I would have been saying it!
Had $50 to place and $25 to win on Rich Strike
Congrats, you made one!
Great job!
Congrats!
Big, big congratulations, Blake!
Stunning score, Blake. Congratulations! Was it the big Late Pace figure in the Ruby Steaks that sold you on RS? 😉
LOL no just a feeling. I also had a tri wheel with Epi #1 spot Zandon #2 and RS #3 so I just missed that as well
Congrats to the winner connections.
That said, I seriously doubt Mattress Mike plunked down millions on this horse.
Not happy running 2nd and 3rd and getting beat by a horse who last won a 30,000 claiming race last September.
Say what???? Am at a musical event so I haven’t even see the race. At least my $50 plunge came in second.
Did anyone have that horse???!
Yes
Yes,i had Rich Strike and Classic Causeway. Could not make a decision between the others and i knew if the pace was fast a closer had a chance and i just had a feeling that a longshot would win. Sometimes its good to listen to the trainers, not always, but sometimes, last year Mark Casse before the 4StarDave said that Got Stormy loved Saratoga and those tight turns, i took his advice. And this trainer said that Rich Strike loved CD and was training well, getting better all the time, but his jockey did give him the perfect trip. Congrats to his connections
Nice! He certainly did like CD in his maiden win. I guess they were just waiting for 10 furlongs…and longer!
That was a STUNNER!
Sired by Keen Ice out of Smart Strike mare.
Bred by Calumet.
Congratulations!!!
One for the underdog! Yes, I suspected it would be a massive closer due to all the front speed, but didn’t anticipate this horse!
Holy Cow 80-1! From the 20 hole! Speechless right now.
Number 1-3 draws are deal breakers! Period!
#3 put up a tremendous race.
1 did fine. He would have done better if Barber Road had not been veering into him on two occasions down the lane.
He was like a nice piece of hickory… and how about that sire having his colts run 2nd and 4th in the KD… like that stallion just got (Taylor) “made”.
Agreed!
We still don’t know for sure which horse goes favored with still an hour to the race. But, in the Double will-pays from Santin, the winner of the 11th race to The Derby, Zandon is the solid favorite.
I hope Mac has a security team with him if he’s walking around in that crowd carrying $3-$4million.
I know for a fact that “Harley” wouldn’t fit into that new Derby starting gate.
LOL.
Love me some Harley.
One of the best horses ever had was an Appaloosa/Percheron cross.
Here are my final thoughts and picks on the Kentucky Derby
Messier and Taiba. Baffert / Takteen 1 and 2 punch.
Messier looks to be sitting on Big One… Training lights out and needed last race. Needs a good start in this race
Taiba … Would like to see him in the middle of the pack in this race. My fear is Smith gets him too close to the front too early in this race and the horse will have nothing left in the stretch.
Cyberknive… Cannot get out of my head the long sustained drive in the Arkansas Derby and he did it effortlessly and still had plenty left in the end… His works since have been super. Cannot see why he is being overlooked.
Barber Road Here is another fast closer that tries every race but …. would definitely have him my Superfecta.
White Abarrio … doing everything right but is he a horse for course type of horse?
Mo Donegal / Charge it (Pletcher duet)… Usually, not a Pletcher fan for KD but these horses fit the bill with his training pattern and their running … both will need a lot of racing luck
MYSTERY OF RACE…. Classic Causeway was his dismal last really caused by a palate issue?
Crown Pride … The Japanese factor… seems to like the racing surface and should have a good base under him.
Good Luck to all !!!
YES, YES, YES….Jackie’s Warrior!!!
Cash a ticket or sentimental victory?
$1000 on Zandon for win!
The rail is dead. Riders have been avoiding it like the plague all day.
This is my 50th derby…..I have been watching since I was a little kid.
My heart thinks and hopes White Abarrio wins today. I relooked at his loss in the KJC. At the top of the stretch there was a hole that closed, he was shuffled back but still rallied to finish 3rd. He could have been undefeated if he had a better trip. He is a small horse but has good energy.
My head thinks it will be Mo Donegal. He is a closer, which I love…..he has a powerful finishing kick. Very impressive. As a weird hunch, my brother in law who knows nothing about racehorses sent me a text about this horse. He is running from the one hole, usually a kiss of death for a derby horse but ran from the one hole in his last race and won it impressively.
Taiba, eye-popping winner in last race, is too lightly raced. Tall order to run again against the best of the best. I was burned backing Rock Your World last year.
The logical horse is Epicenter. His brilliant Loisiana Derby was fast enough to win the Preakness. My only knock is that it was a long time ago.
My biggest hope is that it is a clean race with no disqualifications, and no injuries to horse or runner.
Have a great Derby, everyone.
Wow, happy 50th derby!
The bet is in! Good luck everyone – hope as many of us cash tickets as possible.
* White Abarrio is the top horse on my board.
* I see Zandon as the main threat.
* And Mo Donegal is the other use.
I have $75 Win / $75 Place on White Abarrio. And a bunch of exactas and trifectas with those three keyed with seven other horses – Epi, Smile, Mess, Charge, Taiba, Simp, Cyber. Total bet $225.
Keying Charge It on top (Win, Exactas, Trifecta’s)
Good Luck To All!!!!
Ok, Here we go. Pay close attention so you know who to NOT bet this year. I am playing two scenarios. Pace holds, Pace Folds.
Superfecta Pace Holds
Messier, Taiba
with
Messier, Taiba, Zozos, Mo Donegal( Mo is in here for good luck)
with
Mo, Epicenter, Smile Happy, Messier, Crown Pride, Zandon, Charge it, Zozoz
with
Mo, Epicenter, Smile, Crown P, Charge it, Zandon, Zozos
Superfecta Pace Folds
Mo D, Epicenter
with
Mo D, Epicenter, Zandon, Messier
with
Mo D, Epicenter, Messier, Zandon, Smile Happy, Crown P, Charge it
with
Mo D, Epicenter, Messier, Smile Happy, Crown, Charge It, Zandon, Barber Road
Now, out of my respect for the Bard, the Haskin/El Kabong Saver Tri
Zandon,
with
Mo D, Epicenter, Messier, Smile Happy, Zozos, CrownP, CHarge it, , Tiz The Bomb
with
Mo D, Epicenter, Messier, Smile Happy, Zozos, CrownP, CHarge it, , Tiz The Bomb, Simplification, White Abarrio, Cyberknife.
Good Luck to all. Remember, always gamble responsibly and ignore everything I have told you.
Good luck with your picks, El Kabong! Who knows what will happen? The odds are bizarre at the moment.
Major edit in Pace folds in 3rd and 4th place.
Since it was looking to chalky I flipped 3rd place horses with 4th. Also added Simplification and Zozos into 3rd. Still with me……?
Mattress Mac was just interviewed on TVG2. He now says that he will be betting $3-$4million on The Derby. He also said that he wouldn’t make his bet until 10 minutes before post time. Remember that just a few days ago he said that he would be betting early. The interviewer pressed him on who he would be betting and he said he wasn’t sure yet and that it was important that he bets on the favorite because of his furniture store promotion. Apparently, anyone that bought a mattress from him during this promotion gets their money back if the favorite wins The Derby. I wouldn’t want to get stuck behind him in the betting line. Anybody that does, risks getting “shut out”.
I think that Matthew has been right all along, and that Epicenter will go favored. I just don’t know how a $3-$4million bet in the last 10 minutes wouldn’t affect the betting pool. Even with the huge pool of The Derby. I’ll be watching closely just for fun.
Jerry Bailey just said that they had 50,000 fans at the track on Thursday and another 100,000 on Friday. Another huge crown is expected today. Horse racing is alive and well. At least in the State of Kentucky.
crowd
Safe trips to all for the KY Derby and all of the undercard races. I will be focusing on Zandon for the KY Derby because he is my KDFW1 wager. I will also be using Messier, Epicenter, Tiz The Bomb and Smile Happy in my exotics. I will also play the All Dirt All Stakes P5 which concludes with the KY Derby. 2,4,7/3,5/2,6,7/3,6/3,5,6,9,10. I am using 5 horses for the KY Derby so hopefully my ticket will still be live.
An enticing group of horses in the 12- to 14-1 range: Smile Happy, Charge It, White Abarrio, and Cyberknife.
Pretty much the same deal today as yesterday. FS2 at 10:30am. TVG2 will show only the first 3 races and the last 2 races(13 & 14) with no “live streaming” of races 4 – 12. USA Network starts coverage from 12noon-2:30pm EST. Then NBC takes over from 2:30pm- 7:30pm EST. Like I said, races 13 and 14 will be shown on TVG2. BTW, those last 2 races are at 7:55pm and 8:30pm EST. I hope that their lights are working. Whatever, this is going to be a longggggggg day of racing. I love it. Only 2 weeks to The Preakness.
They did have the lights on early this morning so ok there. If you can stream Twinspires .com will cover all of it. Downside there is you don’t get all the audio coverage once the network stuff starts. Stuff like the interview on the pony with the winning jockey, some interviews with the trainers.
thanks.
Did anyone hear who Mike Welsch has selected? I was curious to see if went with his Florida kids or if he doubts them and if he likes WA or Charge it better.
Overcast at the track this morning but not raining. Track already closed to training so they can get it ready for racing starting at 10 AM they said.
I’ve really enjoyed all the columns and comments here for the past several months, and I’m going to miss them when the race is over. My thanks to everyone who posted. I’ve learned a lot about the horses, but it seems that the more I know, the more confusing it gets. I can make a good case for ten of the entries. So I’m making choices that are partly sentimental and partly logical. In order, I’m picking Mo Donegal, Zandon, White Abarrio, and Simplification. I’m heavy on finishers because I’m thinking the speed may not hold up and because I happen to like those horses.
Jimmy Fallon’s puppies just predicted Taiba, but I claim foul. The puppy representing Taiba was the first to get to the food, but I think Mo Donegal put his nose down first. Another contested event.
Crown Pride is poised to run a huge race. If you watch his UAE race you will see that he was able to accelerate for position twice, both after the break and on the far turn and relax both times before making his run. He also is a May foal, so vast improvement is much more likely than a January foal like Epicenter. And his works since he arrived at Churchill give good indication that he is 100% fit. Maintenance work and then two bullets. I see him breaking hard for position and then chilling out like he did in UAE. Not sure if he is fast enough to win, but I do think he will get into position and relax and make his run. Being 3×4 to Sunday Silence, a win is definitely within less than 10:1.
The early betting on The Derby can change fast as the day winds down to post time. I like to go by the Oaks-Derby Double will-pays to see which horse is taking action. Epicenter is favored in the doubles. Taiba is 2nd favorite and Zandon 3rd. Taiba was bet in the Doubles like a horse that will go off at around 5-1 which is way down from his 12-1 Morning Line. Too low IMO. Zandon at around 5-1 could be fair. Simplification looks like value at around 30-1. Up from his 20-1 ML. Messier is likely to be in that same 5-1 or 6-1 range. Again, too low IMO.
Here’s the thing. The Doubles were bet as if The Derby is a 10-horse race. 10 horses were bet and 10 were pretty much ignored.
Epicenter at 3-1 or 7-2 is not interesting to me. I’d like Zandon better at 5-1 or more.
Smile Happy & Crown Pride are going to be very close in odds based on the Doubles. Less than their 20-1 MLs at around 15-1 or 16-1.
Charge It looks to be around 12-1 or less.
I played four in the Oaks to five in the Derby, cost $20 my biggest is Zozos over $300….
I hope you hit it. I dropped about 28% of my bankroll yesterday. Hoping for better today. The weather should be fine.
I have the following live doubles: Simplification, White Abarrio, and Smile Happy.
So yesterday in the Oaks, I played Desert Dawn to win, and Wheeled it in all the exacta’s. If by chance she could have beat Nest for 2nd, it would have been a huge exacta. Maybe if she had not been so wide, she could have run 2nd.
Zandon for home run.
If Zandon gets lose 2 furlongs out the race is over!!
Loose ha ha not lose ha ha
For sure David.
The odds right now for the Derby are head shaking indeed. Happy Jack down from 30-1 to 22-1. Simplification doubling up from 20-1 to 41-1. Taiba has taken significant action down from 12-1 to 5-1.
Cybberknife’s Arkansas Derby win looks all that more impressive now. Wasn’t that long ago a few here were saying the 3yo Filly crop was better than the male division.
Just read the latest odds for the KY Derby based upon early betting ….co-favorites of Taiba and Epicenter….
These are just the minnows, the big fish pounce with only a few seconds to spare.
“D Wayne can still train” as Secret Oath crossed the wire. She was having no part of those lilies though! They never did get them on her.
In the post race interview, the owners didn’t see fit to credit Lukas or Saez in any way whatsoever.
Too busy dwelling on how hard *they* worked…
Excuse me! Were u napping? Owner acknowledged Lukas. lol
Just got done watching Lukas and the owner interview. Thought it was great when the owner was like how many top trainers has Wayne trained? Then the Lukas dinner plans were a stop at Wendy’s
I may have dozed off for a moment…
Poor choice of words, (me).
I loved his interview. He is a hands on owner, not some rich guy writing the checks. I loved hering his pride in owning Secret Oath’s dam and second dam. It waa refreshing.
Agree.
Love Secret Oath! She probably would have won Ark Derby if she had Saez….
No.
Her win really did not surprise me considering how well she ran in the Arkansas Derby.
Always thought she looks very much like Arrogate (body wise).
Congrats to all!
Just a shame that Arrogate died so young. I think he would have made a really good sire.
She does have a similar physique, especially her head.
Lukas was not ashamed either to say Baffert had called him to let him know how much this filly reminded him of Arrogate. Still getting a chuckle of Secret Oath and the garland. The assistant wore them back to the barn!
That’s a chestnut mare for you.
Hi folks:
Just wanted to alert everyone that Epicenter and Messier are not likely to win because I bet them — with real money! My thought is that this will give Zandon or Taiba an edge. Have a faint hope that one of three exactas I placed on the Oaks may pay off.
More food for thought: Last year’s superfecta (Medina Spirit, Mandaloun, Hot Rod Charlie, Essential Quality) were all well regarded horses at short odds with the exception of Medina. The super paid more than $9K, so that’s evidence there’s no need to rely on longshots if you prefer better horses.
In 2016, the first four favorites finished 1,2, 3, 4 — in correct order: Nyquist, Exaggerator, Gun Runner, Mohaymen. Talk about formful races!
So, not necessarily the usual thing — but maybe for years with lots of strong contenders? That said, looked how the Oaks played out today. Two of the top four mares ran 1-2, a total toss ran 3rd, and yet another favorite ran 4th. So maybe the best supers will include three of the top horses and one longshot. But which top three, and which longshot?
More often than not, there’s a big longshot in the first four. I don’t have a clue which one it could be tomorrow. BTW, the longshot last year was Mandaloun at 26-1. Medina Spirit was well bet at 12-1.
D’oh! How quickly we forget. That said, what is up with Simplification at 41 to 1? That’s worth $2 right there.
Ms Blacktype, quite a few thought that the Oaks speed set-up would be advantageous to Desert Dawn. Toss, certainement pas!! It was such a pity that Kathleen O. became so thin during the last week. Fatten her up.
Ms Blacktype says: I used to say the same thing when I went through a stretch of losers. Personally. I don’t think Epicenter wins either & I also don’t Zandon wins. I do believe Taiba is the real deal & if he gets a good trip then he has a great chance. I am staying mostly with Smile Happy, Zozos & Taiba in the exotics. Maybe throw in White Abarrio.
Good luck to you.
He’s over his head, no experience w/ an over zealous owner. Good luck!
Yes, Deacon, but I seldom bet unless I’m actually at the track. Good luck to you!
Still handicapping lol.
I think Cyberknife has a very legit chance to get third, make the trifecta payout more juicy.
Secret Oath’s win makes Cyber look a little bit better!
So far it’s a boring chalk fest today. sigh
Still a long way to go, but if the heavy rain can hold off until after the last race at 7 o’clock and they get the track sealed up tight, we could be OK for tomorrow. It looks pretty dark off in the distance though.
Its early….Zandon currently 5th choice..
When is ‘James Franklin’ intending to lower the boom?
Beware of morning line favorites in the Battaglia era that are not post-time favorites: 0 for 10.
I much more fearful of selections by: Andy Serling = Messier and Andy Bayer = White Albarrio. ‘Handy Andys’ they are not.
You can almost dismiss winning chances when the above deals out the poison challis. We’ll see.
Well, Davids. You know what Hubert Hawkins said: “The pellet with the poison’s in the vessel with the pestle. The chalice from the palace has the brew that is true.” I rest my case!
If Andy Serling doesn’t like a horse, thats the one to bet!
That’s for sure, you always feel better if Andy is disparaging about a horse you like.
There are as many as eleven horses capable of running the open half mile faster than 47 seconds in this Derby. This could benefit deep closers or very resilient classy stalkers.
I foresee Summer of Tomorrow, Classic Causeway and Zozos dashing burning early fractions with 8 stalkers bunched together in the backstretch. Messier, Taiba and Epicenter are very likely to be vying for control of the race coming to the homestretch with Zandon and Smile Happy taking decisive aim at them. I am not sure if any other closers are able to knock down the “fantastic four” at the finish line but they can very well complete the Super and Trifectas.
I am leaning towards the following echelon trifecta:
Messier/Taiba/Epicenter/Zandon
Messier/Taiba/Epicenter/Zandon/ Smile Happy
Messier/Taiba/Epicenter/Zandon/Mo Donegal/Tiz the Bomb/Smile Happy/Crown Pride
I will be keeping an eye on Cox’s horses to see if I bet some savers including them…
Happy Derby Day and Good luck to everybody !
Do I detect an admirer of Eurico Rosa da Silva? Either way, good luck to you and good luck to everybody. And safe trip to everyone too.
Yes Dawn… you are right.
His gusto during interviews was so contagious that I tend to repeat his trademark closing phrase…!
I know exactly what you mean, Nelson. His interviews were such a pleasure and his closing phrase was such a good one that I’ll repeat it here again: Good luck to everybody!
Good luck, Nelson. Unfortunately, I sense a grey cloud in White Abarrio and Charge It might ruin your party celebrations.
Thanks Davids… I am assuming that the Derby will be run like the Florida Derby in terms of demanding open 3/4 with the end result of making him finishing not as strong as others… anyway, good luck with the Grays… if the track ends up sloppy I might consider them in some auxiliary bets… The extra money I made today may aid in expanding my selections…
Mike Welsch, during the week, said that White Abarrio has never looked so good. You obviously know about the two hiccups earlier in the year. Expect a stronger finish if he gets a descent trip. His mind is perfect for 150, 000 spectators. Charge It has just looked spectacular at Churchill, along with Zandon.
Brad Free did say that Messier ‘makes a loud noise when training’ – breathing.
Messier is so intelligent that he knows that you should breath from your nose and your mouth to get the extra oxygenation while racing… nice trait when you run 10 furlongs and longer…
I’ve felt Messier has been going backwards since the Robert B. Lewis Stakes.
Nelson, I think that the half-mile time will need to be considerably fast (e.g., a blistering 45!) for a closer to win. The median time in the points era is 46 2/5. When the last closer won the Derby (Orb in 2013), the 4f time was 45 1/5. A couple of times, the half was in 45 3/5 and the winners were both second at that call. I agree with you that the ones fighting for the early lead will be the three you named, and the 4f time will be around 46 2/5. The winner will likely come from that second flight, which I see as comprising Epicenter, Messier, Charge It, Pioneer of Medina, Taiba, and White Abarrio. My money will be on Epi and WA.
I see this one unfolding somehow similar to the 2005 Derby more in terms of complexion than very fast split times. Zandon could take the role of Afleet Alex. Tiz the Bomb and Crown Pride got the same running style as Giacomo and Closing Argument respectively. Messier and Taiba would take the role of a more successful Bellamy Road.
Much less than Monarchos Derby which was run under exceptionally fast early fractional times.
If the track ends up fast after (forecasted) midnight rain we can see times close to the following
23 _ 46_ 71_ 95_ ===> 121_
Can’t argue that scenario, other than your predicted 1m time. One minute and 35 sec would be close to the fastest EVER in Derby history: 1:34 4/5 by Spend A Buck.
The early ($207,704 pool) odds from the Oaks/Derby Double are very interesting.
Epicenter 4-1
Zandon 9-2
Taiba 5-1
Messier 11-2
Mo Donegal 10-1
White Abarrio 13-1
The favorites always tend to get overbet in this wager, so I would expect the odds to be a slight bit longer in the actual betting.
Actually, I believe that Zandon is listed as 9-1.
John,
These are the odds I computed out from the Oaks/Derby Double betting.
Paul
It looks like Messier is taking plenty of action.
AB also said Zen was ‘slow’. lol
Right before she won the Classic Beyer said she had lost a step! She won her next 6 starts, and barely lost her last!
Agree w/ u .
I’m watching the horses walking around the paddock right now on TVG2. No rain right now. I don’t see a lot of raincoats on that well dressed crowd. As always on Oaks Day, lots of pink for a good cause. Fast and firm as of right now.
Ethereal Road scratched, Rich Strike in just reported.
zzzzz
got it
Rich Strike may surprise you in the exotics.
Did you wake up from your Z’s now Haskin? Rich Strike was bred for the distance and showed it!
Rich Strike’s trainer is the one who lost a number of horses in a barn fire some years ago.
Steve, who would you say is on the Blossom.
I’m not there so its hard to tell. I cant see their coats if you mean physically.
Derek if you have FB, look for Michele Macdonald. She has taken a number of photos of the entries (both colts and fillies) at Churchill Downs this week.
Just reading her comments about each horse, the filly Nest, Zandon, White Abarrio and Crown Pride are the stand outs in physical appearance. She has one of Zandon making eye contact with her. I am very much an “eye” person when it comes to horses, their eyes are the first thing I look at and the depth of Zandon’s eyes just reach out and grab you and pull you in.
Not the same as Steve’s keen eye of course, but she is the closest thing we have who are not in Louisville.
Aw, what the heck, just CHARGE IT.
Well, I think that I’ve figured out how and where to watch the races from Churchill Downs today. It’s ridiculous that fans should have to bounce all over the place to find the races. FS2 is showing horse racing starting at 10:30am EST and Belmont doesn’t start until 1pm. So, I figure that we can see at least the early Churchill races there. TVG2 will only be showing the first 5 Churchill races and the last two races(12 & 13). The USA Network will start showing Churchill Downs races at 1pm until only 6pm. As I said, TVG2 will then show the final two races(12 & 13). Not only that, but TVG will have no “live-streaming” of races 6-11. Tomorrow it gets even worse as NBC enters the picture. Tomorrow we get to bounce around among FS2, USA, and NBC. I don’t know what TVG or TVG2 have on their schedule for tomorrow.
Obviously, none of this is in the best interest of the fans. Fans get caught up in the ADW wars. Churchill keeps TVG from showing their best races. TVG moves the Churchill races that they can show to TVG2 which many people don’t have access to. Throw in the fact that Churchill tries to milk every penny that they can from their customers, and it all gets very frustrating. Sorry for the rant. Let me go see if the scratches and changes are up yet. The forecast looks bad today. The rain could stop by Saturday afternoon. Who knows what the track will be like by then? I suppose a “fast” track could be possible for The Derby if they were to race over a sealed track all day today. We’ll see.
Why the heck would horse racing ever be on USA Network?
Hey! The Lamborghini Super Trofeo Series is on USA Network as we speak!! 😉
Are they taking wagers on that event?
Somewhere, no doubt!
I believe NBC owns the USA Network but I could be wrong
You must be right, Steve. I see the NBC Peacock on the crawl at the bottom of the screen and also on the front of the desk that serves as the set for the commentators. Plus, it’s the usual NBC crew at the “mics”.
It stinks when you watch all the preps (most ran on dry tracks) and make your picks only to have to start over because of a crappy track! Happens every other year.
Thoro-Graph figures for the past 10 first-place Derby finishers in 3yo preps:
2021 Medina Spirit
3 ¼ (Jan 2), 3 ½, 3 ¼, 3
2020 Authentic
3 ½ (Jan 4), 1 ½, 1 ¾, ½ (July 28)
2019 Maximum Security
6 ½ (Jan 24), ¾, 1 ½
2018 Justify
¾ (Feb 18), 2, -1
2017 Always Dreaming
9 ¼ (Jan 25), 9 ¼, -½
2016 Nyquist
2 ¾ (Feb 15), 3
2015 American Pharaoh
1 ½ (Mar 14), -1
2014 California Chrome
1 (Jan 25), ½, 1 ½
2013 Orb
7 ½ (Jan 26), 1, -2
2012 I’ll Have Another
1 ¼ (Feb 4), 3
Those numbers point Medina Spirit out as an unlikely winner. No wonder he paid over $20.
Great information EddieF… you are to be commended for your exhaustive research.
Thanks, Nelson. I’m not sure, though, about what it tells us. 🙂
Steve, like yourself, Zandon has had me spellbound since last October, he looks the Derby winner and should he get a clean run I would expect him to distance himself from the pack. I agree with you that Zandon, Charge It, White Abarrio, and Crown Pride have impressed the most in the workouts whether that follows through to success is up to the gods of racing. Luck is always the deciding factor.
Perhaps, the gods will take pity on Barber Road so that he hits the board; the small engine I think I can, I think I can. There are so many chances really and a slew of alternatives wouldn’t surprise anyone really. One wish is for fine weather though, Oaks day already appears to be washed out.
Like good wine, your assessment skills are improving with age and you’re not even at Churchill Downs close up anymore. I heard you on Steve Byk’s show with Lenny today that brought back old memories. What fun “And They’re Off” was, too funny at times.
All the best, great work as always. Go, Zandon!!
Fun little game I made up.
* I’ll put up my 3 horses against your 3 horses.
* Whatever placing the horse finishes, that’s how many points he gets. So if he finishes 1st, he gets 1 point.
* Add up the points your 3 horses got, that’s your total score.
* Lowest total score wins (meaning your horses combined finished better than the loser’s horses).
I’ll take White Abarrio > Mo Donegal > Zandon (that’s the exact order of finish btw haha)
Who ya got?
Epicenter, White Abarrio, Messier
Formidable 🙂
Andrew Beyer doesn’t have the best record in picking Derby winners, but last year he did pick Medina Spirt. This year, he likes White Abarrio for the win. Jay Privman likes Zandon and Simplification.
Boxing those three in a trifecta might work.
Even a blind squirrel…………..well I hope that is the case. He is a good athlete(WA) I just think he is not fast enough to compete. Not here at this distance. I like that pony he is lunch pail but not cut for this distance. He could burn me so leave it to a horse to make me look like an ass.
I’m getting a last minute case of the Zozos, read about his owner and he’s really involved, he picked out the mating, because Munnings gets runners. He said right from the start he knew Zozos was going to understand what they were trying to do, because he had a good brain, and that is telling….horse LOOKS like he lifts barbells! CALM, fast, ran HUGE first time stakes, against Epicenter and owner said something interesting….he said Zozos was surprised that he was passed, the kind of Horse that learns, fast……he’s in my 6-horse tri box, and a genuine win candidate, improving….big….strong….works are strong….
I think he is the best in the Cox Barn and I hope he lays off the pace. I like his progress into this more than Cyberknife.
I’ll third that. Agree, Munnings gets runners with real heart, who often surpass pedigree limitations. The 19. Post is unfortunate but if Zozos can tuck in just behind the speed early on… As you say, every time you saw him work, he impressed. A real danger, with a descent trip.
Steve,
Thanks again for taking us through the run up to the Derby. It has been a real pleasure to follow along as you spell it out for those of us who still choose to read. The others probably tune into Steve Byk….. not that there’s anything WRONG with that. There is a real need in a post literate society for those services and those people should also think about getting a chip for themselves the next time they take their dog or cat into the vet.
I am still grinding out my wagers which I plan to post and right now I really think that one of two scenarios will play out. In one, Messier and Taiba steal this race with their speed, but that assumes they get away ok and that the other speed concerns, Summer is Tomorrow, Classic Causeway and perhaps Zozos don’t go all Palice Malice on the front end. I have concerns about Taiba getting a good start but not Messier. In the other scenario I can see Epicenter and Zandon, who I think will both be in the second group of horses running behind the front group, gunning down Messier at the wire with Mo Donegal. Smile Happy, Charge It and Crown Pride should be picking up the remaining pieces.
Good luck with your wagers. I am also going to do a skinny super with Mo Donegal winning just because I’m a sentimental old fool who loves to root for that horse. Plus, it wouldn’t hurt the Wood any to have those green and yellow checkers bring back some respect to the Big A.
Enjoy the race my friend, your analysis is second to none.
I appreciate that very much. Thank you! Good luck!!
Thank you, Steve, for your excellent, comprehensive Derby rankings throughout the Derby Trail. They really are the highlight of my “racing reading” week. You must spend a tremendous amount of time watching races and works, analyzing pedigrees, talking to connections to get the backstory, etc. Your efforts are much appreciated.
I’m going with a handful of horses: Zandon, Epicenter, Mo Donegal, Crown Pride, and Messier. I think Zandon is the most likely winner (yeah, I know, really going out on a limb here.) Crown Pride is certainly training well and has the momentum of his home country on his side, but somehow I just think something is going to go wrong on Derby Day. I loved Messier, but do not love the fact that he’s been passed twice in the stretch in his preps. I would also love to see Taiba do well, but he does not seem like a colt with a very strong constitution, and I think the races and works have taken a lot out of him. I just think he’s a classic bounce candidate after only 2 races and one real work in the last month plus. But…I will be happy no matter who wins! It will be great to see the crowds back under the Twin Spires this year.
Thank you very much Amy, I really appreciate that. Best of luck.
Many thanks Steve for your comprehensive and very articulate analysis of the Derby.
After you confirming that Taiba got the best TG figure I am compelled to believe he is the “real deal”.
After Taiba’s epic win in the Santa Anita Derby few people would doubt he will be relishing the Derby distance.
Despite his dam being basically a brilliant sprinter one can ascribe his stamina to proven Classic 10-furlong horses in his pedigree like his Sire Gun Runner and you also see a fountain of stamina in A.P. Indy at the 3rd generation of his female family.
At the bottom you see the sprinters Afleet and Phone Trick which are not in the lineage of any Derby winner. Despite that, Taiba seems to get a good balance of speed and stamina as a whole.
This time I would like to highlight the presence of Montparnase in Taiba’s fifth generation of the dam side. This Argentinian Stallion is not as famous as his country fellows Forli, Candy Ride, Lord at War or even the broodmare Taba, but his status as a proven source of stamina cannot be overlooked. On top of that, and perhaps most significant, is that Montparnasse is the damsire of Wishing Well the Dam of none other than SUNDAY SILENCE.
Montparnasse was the runner up in the 1961 Grande Premio Brasil an important 3,000 meter-Stakes in South American for its best stayers. Montparnasse was also 3rd in the Canadian Valedictory Stakes at 1 3⁄4 miles.
The famous Californian breeder George Pope Jr. acquired Montparnasse to serve at his El Peco Ranch. Pope was able to develop a successful Nick of Montparnasse with Hillary.
As a sire Montparnasse got 25 Stakes winners with his best sons being outstanding stayers like Arsenal, Straightway, Montmartre and Marinca the winner of the Hasta la Vista Handicap (15 furlongs on the Turf). The most famous son of Montparnasse in America was Big Shot though.
Taiba exhibits ten Stakes winners at 10-furlongs in his 5-generation pedigree which is about half of those in Messier’s pedigree. Despite that difference Taiba is able to be a tough rival going one furlong further.
The pricey son of Gun Runner is already fit enough to run 10 furlongs and Yakteen would not want to over train him. So, I am not worried about the 38 seconds he clocked for his 3-furlong final easy breeze. Yakteen is just making the same move he ordered 3 days before the Santa Anita Derby… and it worked well… didn’t it.
Joel Rosario filling in for Mike Smith on Taiba’s last breeze brought back memories of the Jockey of Canonero II, Gustavo Avila, working Bold Reason before the Derby for Ángel Pena.
After breezing Bold Reason Gustavo Avila confided to Canonero’s Trainer Juan Arias that the Venezuelan Cannonball was the better horse. “I don’t know about the others but this one is not beating us” were Avila’s prophetic words to the humble Trainer.
I wonder if Rosario was able to appraise the running power of Taiba in comparison to Epicenter’s… it is hard to say since it was a very easy breeze …
Thank you Nelson and good luck on all your bets
I knew I recognized that name: Montparnasse. Then you spring the Sunday Silence connection. Nice detail, Nelson.
Steve, and everyone on this site: Best of Luck!!!
I am looking forward to seeing many post-race posts with lots of cashed winning tickets! The exotics should pay really well….Saturday is my favorite day of the year…
Steve
Thanks for another great 15 weeks of insight and remarks .
I am going with 369131516. Ex and tri . Being from North Haven Connecticut it was hard to drop Mo Donegal. I will have a win bet on him because of John Buckley .
With Tiz The Bomb and Simplification across the board and Win bet White Abarrio Place bet on Cyberknife .
Thank You And Best Of Luck
Good luck Chris.
Steve you really are the best…THANK YOU for not “handicapping” sloppy track loving horses….thank you for not handicapping the horse’s birthdays ( like another site thought was important)…I try to read as much as I can, about the Triple Crown…your columns are must-read material, you’re ZzzzzBEST!
LOL. Thanks so much. Matthew.
Well Steve the Derby Journey has come to an end. Al that’s left is putting in the bets and watching the race. I can’t wait to bet the undercard because I will be betting the All Dirt Late P5 which ends with the KY Derby. I’ll be back with a post here on SAT after scratches to give my P5 ticket. I also really like Zandon and have been on him since Nov KDFW1 pool where I got him at 56-1. I bet him to win and boxed him with the field which will be 14 horses. I boxed Zandon in exactas with Tiz The Bomb from KDFW2 and with Smile Happy and Epicenter from KDFW5. The bottom line is if Zandon can get at least 2nd I will win unless Mo Donegal wins. I like you believe that Prat will attempt to get Zandon much closer in the Derby like he did with Country House so Z doesn’t have to pass as many horses as he will have to if he starts far back. I will be using Messier, Epicenter, Smile Happy and Tiz The Bomb in my exacta bets. I will be focusing on Zandon and hope he doesn’t get shuffled back like he did in the Bluegrass and can save ground into the first turn. I hope we both cash on Zandon Steve. Good luck to you .
Good luck, Joe, and thank you
Hi Steve,
Regarding Smile Happy. You are spot on. Off the layoff Corey sat on him the whole race and really never asked him to do anything until the stretch when he gave him a liitle yank w the reins then closed nicely. In the Blue Grass he got caught wide and Corey had no choice but to rate the horse. In the KD IMO he sits back a bit then will employ the same tactics in the risen as well as in the Kentucky Gold Cup.
Lots to like. He loves the track and w Super Saver, Marias Mon, Broken Vow, Pleasant Tap, etc., are all slop influences. Will use w TTB, Zandon, Epic Center and Messier.
The winnings will fund a vacation to CRAB KEY where maybe under the mango tree there may be a 25 year old version of Ursualla Andrews.
Thanks Again Steve,
DR NO
Good luck James
BTW, loved the “Sticking with Z favorite” heading. I think that’s how Flavien Prat would pronounce it. 😉
Love it. I never even thought of that. Lol
It was buried deep within your subconscious.
Sticking with zed favourite. Because Flavien is French. 🙂
EddieF, lthat was cute!
Had to giggle just a bit when Christophe Lemaire talked about Crown Pride switching his legs perfectly when he rode him on Wednesday. He meant leads of course.
I just love an English, French and Scott accent.
Well, “legs” is appropriate, too. LOL
Steve, your two columns (Monday’s and today’s) are the best Derby analyses anywhere on the internet or in print. Thanks for all the work you put into the blog. As for my take… I don’t fool around with exotics. Too much for my head to absorb, plus I don’t get a lot of satisfaction from multiple combinations — even on the rare occasions when I’ve managed a profit. So I’m keeping it simple on Saturday. Barring any unforeseen events, I’ll be betting WHITE ABARRIO across the board and a smaller win bet just for insurance (maybe a slight profit) on EPICENTER.
The issue I have with Zandon and Mo Donegal is that in a 20-horse field, they’ll be in the last flight of horses (e.g., 14th-20th) in the early stages. I count 13 horses that will likely be in in front of those two runners. And that’s a best-case scenario. That’s not where I would want to be in a point-system era Derby.
I admire your allegiance to Zandon and Smile Happy. I was Smile Happy’s #1 fan here from his first race to, well, just before the stretch of the Blue Grass Stakes. I am no longer confident, but I wouldn’t mind at all if he’s the one that beats my pick(s). Then there Simplification, who also got passed in the stretch of his final prep. He was my only future bet this year, at 43-1. I don’t expect a top effort, but I’ll be rooting for him.
Thank you very much, Eddie. I appreciate it. I have been getting strong feelings about White Abarrio and have been lining up people to talk to in case he wins. As I mentioned I think he will be an overlay. Not that that much buzz around him
Often a buzz is a presage to a fly in the ointment.
Zozos thought he was your #1 fan. “Wert thou more fickle than the restless sea“ – William Morris
Fell in love with SH in October! But I did think that Zozos was special after his allowance win. Late start to his career makes him a big longshot on Saturday. Post doesn’t help either.
Hi Steve,
I didn’t know you were here with your Derby Dozen, I googled your name the other day and found you yeah! Always enjoyed your Derby Dozen, the stories and the pictures you would share on Bloodhorse! 🙂
Glad you found me JR. Better late than never but we’ve had a lot of fun here all winter and spring. Please come back now that you know where I am.
You can count on it Steve!! Will you be doing the Preakness and Belmont?
Thanks Steve for your analysis….been watching and reading the comments from both trainers as well as owners as to workouts or lack of workouts. Tim Yakteen seems very, very satisfied with both his horses. That said, I going with a replay of the Santa Anita Derby with Taiba running down Messier (who I believe is the second best three year old only to Taiba) again to win the Run for the Roses. I get the lack of experience angle but this horse screams “Wow!”. Not going to get into the hyperbole talk but this horse could be that time that what you watch is something completely unexpected….much like what Shohei Ohtani is doing in MLB.
Hi Steve
Thanks for providing an excellent betting guide. Now, it’s time to finalize our betting strategy, which is always a major challenge in every Kentucky Derby.
You mentioned that you’ll be keying Smile Happy and Zandon in your trifecta wager, which looks attractive, not only from what they’ve accomplished, but they’ve drawn favorable post positions. With respect to past winning post positions, #5 (Smile Happy) has the most wins, (10), followied by #10 (Zandon) with (9).
In some of my exotic wagers, I’ll be keying those two as well.
Thanks for the ride Steve, it’s been a great journey on this year’s Derby trail.
You trying to boost my confidence, Bill? Lol
Frankly Steve, you don’t need a confidence booster, you’ve been spot on with Zandon from the get go. I wouldn’t be surprised if Mike Bagttaglia waited for your Final Rankings before he established Zandon as the morning line favorite.
It was good to read that you’re still high on Simplification, I’ve got two big Futures win wagers on him, as well as several exactas.
I plan on keying Simplification and Epicenter on top, in several Superfectas and Super Hi-5 wagers. With all these enticing longshots, the Super and Super Hi-5 payouts could be epic.
Good luck Steve.
This year, I thought I’d try the A-B-C method perfected by another Steve (Crist) to plan superfectas, coming up with these picks:
A’s
3 Epicenter
10 Zandon
13 Simplification
B’s
1 Mo Donegal
7 Crown Pride
15 White Abarrio
C’s (had to winnow these quite a bit)
11 Pioneer of Medina
14 Barber Road
16 Cyberknife
18 Tawny Port
What’s the best way to box them as $1 superfectas? Take one from each category, with two from A or B?
Ms Blacktype, so wish I knew enough to help you. Might I suggest a dart board? lol, JUST KIDDING!
Maybe I should just go with my gut and gamble $100 to win on Epicenter. I squander that much on clothing frequently and if he wins that would be somewhere between $300 and $400.
Hi Lynda:
Well, I did it! I set up an account at Twin Spires and could only persuade myself to put $50 on Epicenter. Watching the USA feed and now Randy and Jerry have me thinking I should put a $10 saver on Messier. (Lot of second-place SA Derby finishers have won lately, and what’s not to like about a horse I LOVED after the Robert B. Lewis.) Better check Steve’s report on his Thoro-Graph patterns.
Steve:
Wonderful and thoughtful analysis as always. What’s more impressive, you may have spotted the key to the race when you said Epicenter and Summer is Tomorrow will break first and vie for the lead, likely tracked by Messier. If Epicenter gets to the lead and doesn’t have to fend off multiple attacks, he could well lead from start to finish.
Thanks Ms. B. I agree he could take them all the way if he gets to the front as long as he does it within himself
I’m not an experienced viewer of morning works, but of all the videos I watched of this year’s candidates, I thought he not only looked like the most impressive individual, he had the smoothest, most efficient stride. Fingers crossed for Asmussen to finally get his Derby win!
I love Steve Haskin’s analysis. The best I’ve seen so far. Keeping it simple is always the smartest way to go. My bets will be very close to Mr. Haskin’s. I want Smile Happy to be my big Derby bet and I find Steve Haskin’s comments about Smile Happy’s wet track pedigree very encouraging. I’ll want at least 12-1 though. I’ll be watching the track condition. Rain could stop by mid-afternoon on Saturday, but how much damage will have been done? There is one kind of track, muddy & heavy, that will cause me to switch my bet to Mo Donegal. Cards on the table time: Win & Place-Smile Happy, Exacta Box Key- Smile Happy w-Mo Donegal & Epicenter, Trifecta Key- Smile Happy w-Mo Donegal, Epicenter, Tiz the Bomb, & Zandon, w-“Mo”, “Epi”, “Tiz”, & “Z”. Those will be my big bets.
Full disclosure: I will make much smaller $2 Exacta & Trifecta Boxes using all 5 of my horses.
Superfecta? The Derby is race #25 of 27. Let’s see how I stand after the Old Forrester Turf Classic.
Am I a little chalky? Maybe. I can’t help it. It’s the way that I see it. 2 chalks, w-10-1, 20-1, & 30-1 MLs.
Good luck to everybody and I look forward to reading about some “big scores” on Saturday night and Sunday afternoon. Even when I lose, it cheers me up to read about other people’s scores and how they did it.
Both Flavien Prat’s and Joel Rosario’s Derby wins were over “off” tracks. Who can forget Rosario charging down the center of the track in the slop on Orb? Prat’s win on Country House is very forgettable to me. I don’t even remember where Country House was in the race. I don’t even think that he was involved in the incident that caused the DQ of Maximum Security. Let’s hope we don’t see another race like that 2019 quagmire. I do remember there was something like a 20-minute wait while the Stewards decided what to do. I’ve always wondered if there were some phone calls to management during that 2-minute delay.
Thanks Tommy. Good luck!
Steve, once again you have thoughtfully put it all out there and even though I am not a handicapper, I agree with everything you say!
Stuck like glue on Zandon, Crown Pride, White Abarrio, Messier. Epicenter and Tiz the Bomb with Pioneer of Medina and Happy Jack as the long shots. Just cannot go with Taiba even though I love this beautiful colt by one of my all time favorites, Gun Runner. Time is of the essence and I simply do not feel that Taiba has had enough time on the track to win the Derby.
Good luck to all and may the racing gods smile down on each horse and jockey in both the Derby and the Oaks and all the undercards that are all safe and sound!
Thank you Lynda. Best of luck with all your bets.
As for Taiba listened to Mike Smith talking about him this morning. Noted how intelligent he is. Mike is one of the best riders out there. Mike just might make it happen. Good luck
Mike always seems to develop a relationship, a connection with the horses he rides. He always has confidence in their abilities and the horses pick up on that. It might very well make the difference on Saturday.