2023 Derby Handicapping Analysis
Well, it’s finally the end of the road and for all the questions to be answered…we hope. Here is an overview of what has happened since January and who is left from the hundreds of Derby hopefuls. We will conclude with a feeble attempt to explain our wagers, knowing we are all grasping for straws when it comes to the wild and wacky world of the Kentucky Derby. ~ Steve Haskin
Will Forte or the Gray Make Pletcher’s Day?
By Steve Haskin
There is a lot to cover, so no need for any introductions. Let’s just get right to it beginning with some interesting random notes.
TODD’S SENIOR SET
The three oldest horses in the Derby field are all trained by Todd Pletcher. It seems a lot of people have jumped off the Forte bandwagon, whether it’s because they weren’t impressed with his Florida Derby victory, he didn’t wow anyone in his workouts, or that his speed figures have not improved since last year, and in fact have regressed. Could it be that by being the second oldest horse in the field, with a February 3 foaling date and shipping to Pletcher on March 25 last year and debuting in brilliant fashion on May 28, he peaked early and has not been able to improve his form from last summer and fall? It sounds strange considering he hasn’t lost since last July while racking up four Grade 1 victories along the way. But it wouldn’t surprise me to see his stablemate Tapit Trice go off as the favorite or close to it. I feel people still like and respect Forte, but not as the 2-1 or 5-2 and are looking elsewhere for value.
On the other hand, that same statistic, along with a few others have made me do a complete 180 on my handicapping the Derby. Two of the first horses I eliminated were Mage and Kingsbarns because of them having only three lifetime starts and not racing at 2. The only horse to overcome that much history (108 years and 141 years) is Justify and he was special enough to win the Triple Crown. So why do I now believe that Kingsbarns has a very good shot to win the Derby? It is because of stats that you won’t find in the past performances. First off, Kingsbarns is the oldest horse in the field and the only horse foaled in January (Jan. 17). So although he’s had only three starts he likely is more physically and mentally mature than the majority of the field. He just had a few minor issues coming out of the 2-year-old that made his connections take their time with him. But his physical and mental maturity may have been evident when Todd Pletcher decided to start off his career going a flat mile at Gulfstream Park, which is a tough distance in which to debut. Not only did Kingsbarns win, he won like a seasoned professional overcoming major traffic problems at the head of the stretch when he was totally boxed in with nowhere to go.
After winning over the quirky Tampa Bay surface for fun, he was given another tough assignment having to go 1 3/16 miles off only two lifetime starts. Many people dismiss his victory, even though it was by a comfortable 3 1/2 lengths, because of the slow fractions he set. But there are several important points that are being overlooked.
In 2017 I raved about Always Dreaming in my Derby Dozen after a 1 1/8-mile allowance victory and ranked him No. 8 before the Florida Derby even though he had never run in a stakes and people knocked his allowance win because of how slow he went (:51 3/5, 1:16 4/5, and 1:53 4/5 for the nine furlongs). But I used that as a positive because of how fast I knew he was, having run :45 and change opening half-miles sprinting. For a horse that fast to be able to turn off that speed and run that slow when asked showed me this was a push-button horse who will run as fast or as slow as you want him to. We all know what happened with Always Dreaming. Well, with Kingsbarns, he had worked a quarter at the Gulfstream Park 2-year-old over a dead racetrack in an insane :20 3/5. His consignor Tom McCrocklin said to work that fast at Gulfstream was “science fiction.” It’s not supposed to happen. So here we have a horse with tremendous speed who is able to slow down the pace in a 1 3/16-mile race, going in :49 3/5 and 1:14 3/5 only because no one else wanted the lead. What also went overlooked was that, even with the slow fractions, Kingsbarns’ final three-sixteenths in :18 1/5 was remarkable considering Preakness winners don’t come home that fast and he did it on the lead.
So the bottom line is perhaps having only three starts isn’t as much of a negative with him as we think it is. And perhaps he has shown us that what he’s done in those three starts only enhances how special a horse he really is and that his early foaling date shows us he is mature far beyond his years. I went back to Week 1 in the Derby Rankings and this is how I began my comment on his debut: “The horse who really caught my eye, but is not quite ready to be ranked in the Top 12, was the Todd Pletcher-trained Kingsbarns, who debuted at a mile at Gulfstream and got so much out of the race it gave him a lot more experience than other horses with only one start.” So there is my 180 turn and I will live with the historical consequences. In short, I have no idea how good this colt really is and how good he may be. If he wins the Derby watch how many times the words Triple Crown will be used.
RIDE WITH THE STRIDE
We no longer have Trakus to help us break down the interior parts of a race, but we do now have GPS, which provides us with the number of strides a horse takes and the varying lengths of his stride. So, did Forte get stronger at the end of the Florida Derby or did Mage get weaker? It’s a combination of both, but there is no doubt Mage was shortening stride. Forte’s maximum stride came in his fourth furlong, reaching a whopping 26 feet, 40 inches. He did shorten it to 24.13 at the eighth pole, but picked it up in that furious final eighth, finishing up at 24.27, which was matched only by Tapit Trice’s 25.39 at the finish of the Blue Grass Stakes and Angel of Empire (25.19) in the Arkansas Derby. The latter is the only horse whose stride got progressively longer in the final three furlongs, which is pretty impressive considering distance had no effect on the length of his stride. As for Mage, his stride got progressively shorter, going down to 21.16 at the end, so he no doubt was tiring in the final furlong. One thing that did impress me about Forte was that 26-foot stride earlier in the race and the fact he was able to lengthen his stride at the wire after it appeared as if he was tiring just before that.
THE SCOOP ON SYNTHETICS
Most of us are aware that Churchill Downs, with its clay base surface, is friendly to horses running on grass and synthetic surfaces. If you are in a quandary about whether Two Phil’s moved way up on Turfway’s Tapeta surface in the Jeff Ruby Steaks or he is simply improving at the right time, it really doesn’t matter. It’s probably a combination of both, but even if he mostly improved because of the synthetic surface, coming off it should help him. Animal Kingdom had never run on dirt going into the Derby. Paddy O’Prado was a grass horse who finished third the Derby. Dullahan excelled on grass and synthetic and also finished third in the Derby. Barbaro was a grass horse, who in his first race over a fast dirt track was all out to beat the distance challenged Sharp Humor by a half-length in the Florida Derby before romping in the Kentucky Derby. And of course last year we had Rich Strike coming off a third in the same Jeff Ruby Steaks. So don’t worry about Two Phil’s, who has already won big in the slop at Churchill Downs and placed twice in graded stakes at Fair Grounds. Even if he isn’t as dynamic as he was at Turfway Park he still has the credentials and the speed figures to win on Saturday and could actually move up coming off the synthetic track.
A TALE OF TWO HORSES
It has been rare for me to rank a horse coming off a maiden victory, especially if the horse broke his maiden in a photo or in a sprint or on a sloppy track. Times obviously are changing so you have to be more flexible and simply go by what your eyes tell you. Are you seeing a horse with star potential who will excel at classic distances? This year in Week 1 back in January I ranked a horse at No. 12 off a maiden sprint victory, who hadn’t run for 4 1/2 months. He had a lot going against him time-wise, but he showed me enough from his mechanics, raw ability and closing punch to suggest he had a bright future and enough time to get in a couple of two-turn races. But it was going to be very tight and everything would have to work out perfectly. And he still needed to show what he could do going two turns.
A week later I added an even more unusual horse to the Rankings and even had the audacity to rank him at No. 7. I originally put him at No. 5 but figured at the last minute that was going a bit too far so I moved him down two places. What made him unusual was that he only won by a neck coming off one third-place finish and it was on a muddy track. To rank him at all was out of the ordinary, but to rank him that high was insane. However, from a visual standpoint he was outstanding, with a magnificent, fluid stride you rarely see in a young horse. Even in a photo finish there was something dominant about him. So there were these two maiden winners with plenty of question marks taking up two spots in the Rankings in Week 2.
Needless to say there is no way I will not be boxing an exacta of Disarm and Tapit Trice in the Derby, especially after they turned in two of the most impressive works I’ve seen all week. Disarm has looked so strong and focused every day and his two works have been so eye-popping I fear he is now a wise-guy horse who will take a lot of money. All I know is that both horses sure have come a long way.
THOROUGHLY THORO-GRAPH
Here are the horses I feel are on the strongest Thoro-Graph pattern.
Angel of Empire – His first four races were slow, running a career-best 9 1/4 in the Smarty Jones Stakes in his fourth start. Then in the Risen Star Stakes at 13-1 he made a huge leap to a 2 1/4. Many horses will bounce off such a big jump, but he pretty much paired up that number with a 2 in the Arkansas Derby, which means he likely will now make another move forward.
Two Phil’s – Running on all kinds of surfaces at all distances at different racetracks, he was able to remain very consistent with three straight numbers of 7 3/4. When it was time to finally show some improvement he ran a 4 in the LeComte and paired that up with another 4 in the Risen Star. Then came the move to synthetic and he jumped to a 2. That put him in position for another improved performance, and if he is just getting good now he could make a significant jump.
Tapit Trice – His 1 in the Blue Grass Stakes makes him the fastest horse in the field and it followed a 4 1/4 and 4 1/2 pairing, which shows what you can expect when a horse pairs up career-best numbers. The second number validates the first one and then comes the big jump forward.
Verifying – He is on a similar pattern as Tapit Trice, going from a 5 1/2 pairing to a 1 1/2, but is not as sure a thing to improve going another quarter of a mile. If he does he will be dangerous.
Skinner – I love his pattern. Once again we have a horse making a huge leap from a 17 to a 4 1/2 and then pairing up that number to validate it. Although he then finished third in the Santa Anita Derby, his 2 1/4 number was faster than the winner and the runner-up and was another example of a horse making a significant move forward after pairing up career-best number. The extra furlong should help him improve once again.
Derma Sotogake – After the UAE Derby I considered moving him into the Top 3 and then when he was given a 1 1/2 Thoro-Graph number following a 6 1/2 and 6 3/4 pairing to back it up I was tempted to put him No. 2 or even No. 1. His UAE Derby figure, and his projected Beyer, make his stirring victory faster than the Dubai World Cup, and that makes him a serious horse.
I also have to say that the two lightly raced horses, Kingsbarns and Mage, are in very similar steadily improving patterns they still need another jump of about two to three points. Kingsbarns has run a 9 1/2, a 4 1/2, and a 3, due in part to the pace, so who knows how much of an improvement he has in him?
MORNING GLORY
It’s still early but let’s look at the horses who have made the best impression in the morning. There is no doubt that Disarm heads this list with his powerful gallops and two picture-perfect works. This colt has thrived since the unscheduled Lexington Stakes, coming back with a monster work just nine days later following several gallops in which he was really in a zone with his head down into the bit and his neck arched. What stood out in his two works was the way he was extending himself, reaching out with powerful strides, while doing everything on his own. The mile and a quarter should only help him.
Although Confidence Game had a stunning work, just floating over the ground, and is putting a lot of bottom under him with strong gallop-outs, I still can’t ignore the fact he is coming off a 10-week layoff. It just hasn’t been done and I can’t project it happening now. More important, I don’t want it to happen. These horses are too lightly raced already and we really have no idea who they are. I barely remember Confidence Game, it’s been so long since he raced.
Tapit Trice had a simple, but powerful half-mile work, in which he demonstrated how easily he can do things while showing off that big stride of his and how strong he is on the gallop-out. When this horse fully matures he is going to be a beast. Will it happen on Saturday? Post 5 might be a little too far inside for him, as he is more comfortable outside of horses and he is one horse you don’t want to get stopped. He just has no speed out of the gate and doesn’t have the maneuverability of some of the others. But we know he can make more than one run and there is no one I’d rather have on his back than Luis Saez. This horse doesn’t just outrun you, he steamrolls you.
One horse who is constantly improving in everything he does is Angel of Empire. His :36 4/5 final three-eighths and :12 1/5 final eighth in the Arkansas Derby were powerful and he keeps making great strides at the right time. He did everything easily in his half-mile breeze in company with Jace’s Road, even throwing in an :11 flat eighth and then galloping out like a powerhouse, opening up a 10 to 15-length advantage down the backstretch.
Two Phil’s’ five-furlong work in :59 at Hawthorne was a thing of beauty. He did everything so easily with the rider’s elbows extended, but when he moved his hands just a little, the colt dropped down and opened five lengths on his workmate in a flash.
The forgotten horse, who also might be sliding in popularity, is Practical Move. Like Forte, all he does is win, perfect trips or no perfect trips. He also has sneakily been working lights out. In his last work he somehow was able to go five furlongs in :59 even with his rider standing straight up in the saddle trying to keep him from hooking up with another worker in the stretch who was under a drive. Every one of his works has been spot on, going fast under no urging with the rider way up in the saddle.
I loved Derma Sotogake’s last work, the way he settled down and how he was getting over the ground once the rider let up on the reins and gave him his head. This is a horse who wants action.
Two longshots who have looked good working are Hit Show and Sun Thunder. The latter will be getting blinkers, as will Rocket Can. I’m not a fan of equipment changes for the Derby, but both colts seem much more focused with them, and Rocket Can’s last work was exceptional. Hit Show showed great improvement settling in his work compared to his prior headstrong gallops.
THE BETS
This race is way too complicated with too many mysteries to get too creative and go overboard. I am quickly going to mention one of those mysteries and that is pace. Will it be Kingsbarns, Verifying, Jace’s Road, Derma Sotogake? The fact is that Reincarnate has more natural speed than any of them. He doesn’t want to pass horses after sitting just off the pace, but when he’s in front he won’t let horses pass him, so I fully expect John Velazquez to send him and outrun everyone. Even in the Arkansas Derby when he stalked the leader and was passed by Angel of Empire, he dug in and wouldn’t let horses pass him for second until King Russell came flying out in the middle of the track where he couldn’t see him. No one will pay any attention to him on the lead, so don’t be shocked if he and Johnny V pull off another Medina Spirit.
And I must mention the question of Skinner possibly being a hanger who doesn’t finish off his runs. Giacomo, like Skinner, had only one maiden win to his credit and had been a notorious hanger who couldn’t finish off his run. But John Shirreffs uses preps as preps and has his horses learn from each one with the goal being to peak on Derby Day. The truth is horses don’t hang in the Derby. They have too much on their mind in a 20-horse stampede. Giacomo was more intent on finding a hole to get through in the stretch to think about hanging. Once he stormed through his momentum and 150,000 cheering fans got him to the finish line first. You might bring up Zandon last year, who could not get by Epicenter. But he was not hanging, he simply was being outrun by the best 3-year-old in the country. So don’t even give hanging a second thought.
With all that said I feel in the end the Derby could very well come down to the three best horses – Forte, Tapit Trice, and Angel of Empire, with a sprinkling of price horses to back them up. But that’s not why I’m here. If I was a big bettor and looking for value among the favorites I would consider making my big win bet and key my exotics with Angel of Empire on top. While Forte and Tapit Trice have had their moments of concern in their recent races Angel of Empire has done everything perfectly, in the afternoon and morning, and is moving forward faster than anyone. And what you are looking for are horses getting good quickly this time of year. Angel of Empire fits that bill. I don’t know if he can duplicate his Arkansas Derby win against far better horses. My gut feeling is that he will run another big race, but a lot of it will depend on the pace.
Putting everything together and looking for big prices because of my tiny budget I was leaning toward a $1 trifecta box with Two Phil’s, Angel of Empire, Tapit Trice, Skinner, and Disarm. But after my late Kingsbarns revelation I may have to go with a .50 cent six-horse box instead. I hate not using my No. 1 ranked horse, Forte, but I can’t use a horse with such low odds whose Thoro-Graph numbers have remained stagnant for so long. But it sure wouldn’t surprise me if he won, because that’s what he does.
I definitely will throw in win bets on price horses Two Phil’s, Disarm, and Skinner. And I have to add Derma Sotogake. I would rather bet him and lose than not bet him and have him make history after I was so high on him following the UAE Derby. Maybe the stars are aligning for him. Not only would he make history by winning, how appropriate would it be for him to become the first horse to win the Derby from post 17, the only post that has not produced a Derby winner. This is not your typical Japanese Kentucky Derby horse. This horse has a legitimate shot to win without it being even a mild surprise.
Those are my bets on Wednesday evening. But as we know, things can change, especially after seeing the live odds on Derby Day. Two win bets I have in my back pocket are on bombs Reincarnate and Hit Show if their odds draw me in. I don’t trust Johnny V and Reincarnate not to pull off another theft. And I have had Hit Show ranked high most of the year and won’t hold his Wood Memorial against him. He’d been traveling back and forth from Louisiana to New York and hadn’t run in two months. He is the second youngest horse in the field and won’t even turn 3 until three days after the Derby, and he really got battle-tested after being roughed up from both sides the length of the stretch in the Wood. He has settled in nicely the longer he’s been at Churchill and might be sitting on a big race even from the dreaded rail post. It all depends on his odds.
And finally what to do about Kingsbarns? Again it will all be about his odds at post time and how much I’m willing to bet. Right now I’m content to add him to my trifecta box, but I just may splurge if he keeps growing on me and his price is enticing enough. I am also looking for 12-1 to 15-1 on Practical Move hoping he will be the forgotten horse, as I had him ranked second most of the year, and his mainly unnoticed works stamp him as a serious contender. That’s all I needed was another dilemma. I will let everyone know where I stand with these extra win bets in the comments on Saturday afternoon or as an addition at the end of this column.
So in summation, I have my (now) six-horse trifecta box, three definite win bets, a saver on Derma Sotogake, and of course my Tapit Trice – Disarm exacta box for fun. And I am holding Reinarnate, Hit Show, and especially Kingsbarns in my back pocket until closer to post time. But I doubt I will do much with them if anything. Kingsbarns could turn out to be the smartest play of them all. He will turn out to be either just another three-career-start loser or racing’s next superstar. If it’s the latter you might want to hop on for the ride. But then what do I know?
****LATE BETS AFTER SCRATCHES. My .50 cent six horse trifeicta boxes aee now — Angel of Empire, Disarm, King Russell, Two Phil’s, Kingsbarns, and Reincarnate and another box substituring Angel of Empire with Tapit Trice. Dont want the two favotites in the same box. Win prices are now terrible 60-1 shots are 30-1.
Racing historian, author, and award-winning retired journalist for the Daily Racing Form and The Blood-Horse, Steve Haskin was inducted into the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame’s Media Roll of Honor in 2016. Known for his racing knowledge and insightful prose, he has been an exclusive contributor to Secretariat.com since 2020.
Steve, I think you went over the cliff when you used the GPS info about FORTE and MAGE.
I wished you had not written that Paragraph and even more I wished I had not read that same paragraph.
You were right about Two Phil’s. If not for the GPS info- you me would have hit the Win , Exacta and Tri.
I did much better in the OAKS.
RIDE WITH THE STRIDE
We no longer have Trakus to help us break down the interior parts of a race, but we do now have GPS, which provides us with the number of strides a horse takes and the varying lengths of his stride. So, did Forte get stronger at the end of the Florida Derby or did Mage get weaker? It’s a combination of both, but there is no doubt Mage was shortening stride. Forte’s maximum stride came in his fourth furlong, reaching a whopping 26 feet, 40 inches. He did shorten it to 24.13 at the eighth pole, but picked it up in that furious final eighth, finishing up at 24.27, which was matched only by Tapit Trice’s 25.39 at the finish of the Blue Grass Stakes and Angel of Empire (25.19) in the Arkansas Derby. The latter is the only horse whose stride got progressively longer in the final three furlongs, which is pretty impressive considering distance had no effect on the length of his stride. As for Mage, his stride got progressively shorter, going down to 21.16 at the end, so he no doubt was tiring in the final furlong. One thing that did impress me about Forte was that 26-foot stride earlier in the race and the fact he was able to lengthen his stride at the wire after it appeared as if he was tiring just before that.
Final comments on 2023 Kentucky Derby :
Again , congratulations to Mage, the connections and Joel.
He has always been one of my favorite jockeys and so happy he got his Derby.
I had both Disarm and Angel of Empire on my shortlist to win or place well.
So very pleased with both of their performances.
Disarm is a mini me of his sire, amd if he is like his sire, he will get better and better in the coming months.
Since the connections do like racing beyond 3, he might possibly be awesome as a 4 year old.
Angel of Empire also performed well. I think he will like the extra distance of the Belmont.
Best race of the day however and possibly now the best dirt horse in America is Coady’s Wish.
If there is a more beautiful backstory for any of these horses than Coady’s Wish and young Coady, I cannot think of one. The heart to heart connections of these two is something to behold.
The death of 7 horses will always be a shadow over this Derby. I have no answers but somehow, someway more has to be done. We will never get the numbers down to zero, that is a statistical impossibility, but we can, should and must do better.
Would like to thank Japan for sending 3 to run in the Derby. And Jeff, they all left today, but they did not have their tails tucked between their legs. I hope that does not upset you!
Thank you too for all the hard work, hours and efforts from all the trainers, jockeys, exercise riders, grooms, connections and horses. I applaud each and every one of you even the trainer who was referred to as “Sgt Shulz” and the owner who was referred to as “insufferable” and the same two who were basically called “liars” regarding the timeline on Forte. Just as an FYI to that person, please be advised that if knew anything about horses, you would know that a hoof bruise or a stone bruise does not always show up that same day or even the next day.
Steve, thank you, thank you for another ” mostly” delightful run up to the Kentucky Derby.
Now it is time to move forward off this Derby and onto the Preakness, Belmont and all the other upcoming races.
Personally looking forward to the Royal Ascot in June. Queen Camilla is said to be a big supporter of horse racing, more so that the King. Hopefully the traditions and pageantry of the Royal Ascot will continue.
7 deaths in a week is sad and tragic. Hope they get more information, particularly , on the conditions of the track. Japanese owners didn’t want to try the Preakness? Sorry but that’s weak in my view, be a sportsman and be the first. Oh well maybe next year they can try again, but the field will surely be deeper in talent than this years running-making it harder for them to win their first.
Steve thanks for all you do to make the Kentucky derby build up so much fun ! Since January your columns each week have been awesome
Thank you Nick. Hey, I finished 2,3,4 in my trifecta box. Not too bad, but lost money again Lol
I did exactly the same threw out the winner at the last minute for Kingsbarns life goes on but I thought the riders didn’t adjust to the pace
I really thought Loveberry was too aggressive with Two Phil’s on the backside and by taking the lead so early in the turn, if he gives the horse a breather in the turn I think he wins easily. Congratulations to the winner and the connections!
That horse ran awesome considering the ride he got. Everyone within 2 lengths of the lead finished up the track. He was 2nd, beaten one length
In addition, Steve he was on his toes, for the walk up and in the saddling area, which I do not like it takes energy…Two Phils ran the hardest….
Yes, too much on his toes. Might have cost him
Darn! I thought it was a very good sign regardless of how much time he’s on his toes pre-race.
My father taught me to look for calmness, just walking …prancing on toes is a sign of willingness, for sure—its also a sign of nervousness, and it does take energy.
Noted! Thanks, Matthew.
Steve, i used your top 12 for my trifecta boxes and am happy to say that I got the winning ticket so THANK YOU.
Really? Thats great, so happy for you. Btw my last rankings was a Top 10 and two were scratched, so I’m happy I had the top 3 finishers in the eight ranked horses.
Awesome race and thrilling finish. As for the rest it has all the intrigue of a Dick Francis novel.
The best part of the race was the interview with Javier. It was very touching. I noticed Mage’s face covered in dirt and realized Mage was very special indeed to not only win but to do it in the midst of all the kickback. For me, it solidifies also that I was right to think Forte had a great chance, also. It also reminds me to really pay attention the horse’s pedigree especially with all these lightly raced horses and also important to watch the workouts. I tossed a number of horses just based on the workouts. If they were too wound up, they got tossed. lol I’m happy to be surprised that Mage won. Also does anyone think Angel of Empire didn’t get sent soon enough? A genuine question because I haven’t really watched the race too many times yet but he was definitely eating up that ground at the end. I’m also pleased 2 Phils did well. I had picked him as well as Angel of Empire once Forte scratched. I look forward to Steve’s article about Mage because to me, Mage is a lovely continuation of the Curlin legacy.
Rachael, both Mage and AoE ran near each other for nearly the entire race. I think that Mage on the outside had a clearer run as they came out of the final turn, but AoE followed him. He didn’t seem to have an excuse. One of the many reasons I liked AoE was that he never got into trouble in his 6-race career.
Thanks for the insight. based on his accelerating speed towards the end he might be a natural Belmont bet? Though he has the highest dosage index of the whole field. That whole formula, I read about it in depth a few years ago so now my recollection of it is tenuous at best. But AOE’s dosage was 9. Which is very high and points to mainly sprinting bloodlines if I remember right.
There was an amazing youtube channel this year that showed the workouts from the backstretch. So neat, and well organized. Neat to watch them change leads over and over again. I really enjoyed watching those and based on them I tossed Tapit Trice and Derma and a few others. I think Mage was only featured very briefly in the video I saw though and he looked prim and proper and very workman-like with an efficient stride. Not flashy but certainly impressive. But I thought he was too lightly raced. But perhaps this is a sign of the times, and we will see horse more skipping the 2 year old campaign, that’s got to be better for them from a developmental standpoint for a longer lasting career. I’m also beyond happy they have ditched lasix in major races. It needs to be ditched altogether.
— we will see more horses, I meant
I’ve read that studies have indicated horses who race at two actually tend to be less injury-prone than those that start racing later. Seems counterintuitive in some ways, but I think the theory is that training and racing earlier helps them build up bone density.
arlingtonfan, you are correct. 2 year olds do suffer fewer fractures than 3 year olds. The Jockey Club annual reports on bone injuries confirms that fact.
There is a really good article titled “The Bare Bones: A Primer with Larry Bramlage” that explains why.
Multiple studies also point to a correlation between bone loss and horses being stalled with few or limited opportunities for exercise…sprint gallops. If you read the article by Dr Bramlage he mentions 1/8th mile sprints.
This same research indicates that the bone loss can start as soon as two weeks when the horse is kept in a stall and that hand walking or being on the hot walkers does not build bone density. The bones most affected by bone loss are the sesamoids. Fractures of the sesamoids are the leading cause for the necessity to euthanize the horse.
The Japanese also did a twenty year study that showed that most fractures occur on the forelegs and at the times during the race
when several lead changes are needed and on the turns. There is also a direct correlation per this study, between track surface conditions and fractures.
The Japanese do great work in this area. If you had the name of the study, I’d be very interested in getting a look at it.
Epidemiology in Thoroughbred Race Horses with special reference to bone fractures: Japanese experience from 1980s to 2000s.
Rachael, I think that AoE will be well-suited to 12 furlongs. Mage, too. About that dosage thing: There was a discussion about it on this blog a while back, and I looked into the dosage system until a migraine hit me. Ha ha! The original dosage system was created by Steven Roman, who retired about 6 or 7 years ago. The system was based on a somewhat subjective designation of top sires in several categories related to distance. I believe the system was dormant for a few years before being brought back to life…maybe by more than one thoroughbred pedigree “expert.” One of them is/was Steve (a common name apparently, ha ha) Miller from London. In 2019 he added to the chefs-de-race roster the likes of Darshaan, Dubawi, Fasliyev, Linamix, Shamardal, and Unbridled’s Song. Not exactly sires you’ll find in North American pedigrees (except for Unbridled’s Song). At least according to the numbers in equinelinedotcom, Always Dreaming, Nyquist, and American Pharoah didn’t “qualify” among recent Derby winners. I see that AoE easily had the highest dosage in this year’s Derby, yet he finished ahead of all but two runners, gaining on the top two with each stride. (There were only two runners with dosage numbers above the 4.00 threshold.) Additionally, the system doesn’t take into account the dams in a horse’s pedigree. Bottom line, in my admittedly amateur opinion, is that it’s an unreliable system in handicapping Kentucky Derby entries.
At this point, I don’t have a solid opinion about racing or not racing at 2. I thought we were returning to more experienced fields when there were only two runners having fewer than 5 starts (Mage and Kingsbarns had 3 starts). Last year there were 7 with fewer than 5 career races! But Mage’s win may reverse the short-lived trend.
Mage is a grandson of Big Brown, who won the Derby in 2008 with the experience of just three races. Big Brown’s trainer Rick Dutrow returned yesterday from a 10-year suspension to win an allowance race at Belmont Park. Only in horse racing!
For me, Mage’s win took the sting out of seeing Angel of Empire come up short by a length and a half. It’s gratifying to see the joy of Gustavo Delgado and his owners in the winner’s circle. This is a trainer that came to the U.S. in 2014 after an illustrious career in Venezuela, and until yesterday had won purses of more than $1 million in only three of those nine years.
I’m also happy to see that the curse of Maximum Security has been lifted from the Florida Derby. I’m hoping to see many more Derby winners come out of Gulfstream’s marquee event for 3 year olds. Looking forward to reading Steve’s thoughts on Mage and another bizarre Kentucky Derby.
Thanks Roberta Greevey about your thoughts about Big Brown and his former trainer. I am so pleased for Big Brown that he’s now won as a broodmare sire. I loved his son Dortmond as well.
I am so pleased for Javier Castellano and I am glad that he has finally fully recuperated from Covid. He was much more ill than it was known.
And what a story for this year’s Derby. And I am especially proud since Mage’s ownership group is from my adopted hometown.
Terri, it was your previous comment (about Big Brown) that got me thinking about the connections. Mage’s win was indeed a great story amid the tumult of Derby week.
That is so true, Roberta. There is always an ‘omen’ connection in racing. When Rick Dutfow said “Thanks Babe” to Maggie Wolfendale the mind started thinking…
Ha ha! I missed that. On my!
I like the Dutrow reference. Big personalities seem to be disappearing from many areas, as everyone is so easily offended. Horse safety must be paramount, but i wonder if Dutrow and Baffert are bigger offenders or if their glib personalities make them ripe targets for the buttoned down powers that be?
Congratulations to everyone in Team Mage. What a story that starts in Venezuela and goes through Miami and onto Kentucky. I couldn’t be happier for Javier Castello and his trainer Gustavo Delgado, who both were from the same town in Venezuela. Javier’s dad was a jockey for Delgado in Venezuela. And how pleasing a win it is for Good Magic, the sire, and Big Brown, the broodmare sire. And this story is reminiscent of Cannonaro II.
This is a story waiting to be told by Steve Haskin.
Yes Terri, my thoughts exactly. Waiting for one of Steve’s dreamy, historical ‘trips’ full of beauty.
Great story Terri. I hope Steve does write about it!
Lynda King Steve Haskin wrote great stories about Canonero I and Canonero II a few years ago in the Blood Horse.
I am sure he will update it.
Incidentally, Delgado was a trainer at Calder in Miami after moving from Venezuela. Then he eventually moved to Churchill Downs. I am sure that Steve is contacting everyone and getting updates to the story.
Hi, Terri. I’m pretty sure that Mr. Delgado is still based in South Florida, specifically at Gulfstream. Of course, he races his horses in a number of circuits including many runners in Kentucky.
Congrats to the winner and especially Javier Castellano for his first KD win after 15 tries….well done. Again, congrats to JC and this horse’s connections.
But who can continue without that beautiful story for Cody’s Wish and see this horse’s win. Wow. And after what we saw/read about how a horse, Wild On Ice, lost their life while training for the Derby while another champion, Forte, lost his chance to race that might been to hard to handle for some.
Hopefullyl that said, can we now move to normality with Baffert horses going forward to the Preakness and the Belmont?
Is National Security the Baffert horse that is going to the Preakness?
Did you say “move to normality with Baffert horses”? That’s funny.
Eight Preakness chamnpions without any medical violations…where do you want to take this Roberta?
No “medical violations” means what exactly? That the chemistry used was not detected at Pimlico, a track owned by Belinda Stronach, who is oblivious to what he gets away with at SA and her other tracks.
Trainers with lofty winning percentages are not a special breed and not the norm. He was banned for a year for administering morphine.
Instead of spewing false narratives, speak the truths. Baffert win percentage the last two years has been at highest ever. BTW the last two years his horses have been at their highest scrutiny with drug testing. No positives. The results for the last two derbies in my eyes show what a superior trainer for the Derby baffert is versus all others. He is the Michael Jordan of horse racing.
If you want to ignore Baffert’s history of violations, that’s your prerogative as an anonymous commenter. But if you call for truth you need to be truthful. Baffert’s win percentage for the past two years HAS NOT been his “highest ever.” Anyone can easily check the record. How have the “last two derbies” shown Baffert’s superiority? That’s another absurd comment. And Baffert is not an athlete, so the comparison to Jordan is ridiculous. And Michael Jordan was CLEAN.
No I don’t ignore past violations. I asked ‘where do you want to take this’? Like I mention before are we to include Steve Asmussen whose rap sheet is long and a confessed wage theft. Chad Brown has confessed to physically harrassing a female and a convicted wage theft. Todd Fletcher, as recently as a year ago was fined by the New York Gaming Commission..
Okay then! “John Goggin” is “Jeff.” I’m not really surprised.
Another assumption that is wrong.
No medical violations means exactly that. Don’t spin the truth. They tested his horses. The New York tracks tested his horses. Stick to the truth.
I didn’t like his lonely lead wins becoming the norm in the Derby, with no one challenging the lead horse. Also I don’t care for the just off the pace horses being declared superior based soley on running style, year after year, by writers and posters trying to handicap with this belief system. This year was different, the best horses were the stalkers and closers and it showed, time and again. But, there were also several pacers, capable of leading, some of them not bad, who set a decent pace, sure they got caught up in a speed duel, but that’s what happens in a COMPETITION. Maybe the riders could have done differently, but even Johnnie V. an experienced lone lead winner, got caught up two years in a row. This was a throw back Derby to decades ago, maybe, where there are several good who run in different positions. I hope it continues like this. It just seemed like a large group of people like predictable formula races. But I admit I want my favorite to win, he was scratched though.
They’ve been testing horses for a long time. If they don’t know what they are testing for, they will not find it.
There’s a reason Servis and Navarro are serving jail time. They used UNDETACTABLE concoctions. Stop defending your idol. He doesn’t even know you exist.
A little acknowledgement for Mark S. whose observations provided the Superfecta in his 5:04 p.m. posting today!
Attn: admin
I keyed All on top, (which included 3,8,11) and used 1-5-14 underneath.
Do you know if this is a winning superfecta ticket.
8-3-11-14
Thanks
Congratulations to Mark S.
After I got home, I checked my superfecta tickets. I’m not sure but I think I just might have hit the Super.
I keyed All on top, with 1,5,14 underneath.
The order of finish was 8-3-14-11.
Anyone out there know if this is a winning ticket?
Congrats. Glad to hear
Hey Jeff
I’m still not sure if my ticket is a superfecta winner.
I keyed All on top which did not include AOE (14) but I have him in the 4th slot.
8-3-14-11
AoE ended up 3rd. You had him for 4th. I would say you just missed on the super.
If it was a boxed super, you cashed!
Hey how’d the knee replacement go?
Thanks for the reply ChiefsCrown
Rats! That’s what I was afraid of.
The knee replacement surgery went well. It’s been almost five weeks since the knee replacement, and with the aid of a cane, I’m walking well.
Thanks for your support.
A few thoughts:
Congrats to Mage and team. Wonderful development;
Pletcher is an utterly a disaster running horses in the Derby, if I had all his millionaire horses, off the street, I would’ve had a better record;
Baffert will get more horses for next year run, it’s very telling on why he is the all time winner;
UAE Derby is a horrible prep for the derby;
Japanese horses have a long long way to go before they can be counted on versus American 3 year olds
The chart notes indicated that Derma Sotogake brushed the side of his gate stall “soundly” at the start, and Mandarin Hero got bumped hard going around the final turn and lost his momentum after that. Neither had a chance to show their best today.
Hopefully the owners run Derma in the Preakness and not go back to Japan with his tail between his legs..
That’s a horrid thing to say!
Congrats to Mage in the KY Derby. So proud of Disarm who rallied for 4th after getting body slammed in the stretch and kept coming to get fourth. Glad to win my KDFW2 bet Field/Disarm . The 3 horses finishing ahead of Disarm were field horses from KDFW2. Glad to win! That made my day.
Nice score, Joe! WOW! Interestingly, Disarm was horse #11 listed in KDFW2, same number as his saddlecloth/original post position… After Saturday, I love Disarm in the Travers; Best finisher in this year’s Derby w/ Saratoga experience
As someone who loved Arlington, I just have to give a shout-out to Two Phil’s, Larry Rivelli, and Jareth Loveberry. What a race “Phil” ran! I can’t even imagine how thrilled Jareth must have been as he entered the homestretch on top.
As they say hindsight 20/20, no disrespect to Larry Collmus and Travis Stone who did another great job calling the Derby for NBC and Churchill respectively, as Two Phil’s took the lead at the top of the stretch, it would have been real cool if one of them did an impromptu Phil Georgeff tribute and shout “Here they come spinning put of the turn!” My mom and my sweetheart were rooting on Two Phils big time as I watching my choice Disarm try to pick through the pack
Update on Hear Mi Song.
Radiography showed no abnormalities.
Probably overheated.
After cooling down, appears to be OK.
Good news of course!
Congratulations to Mage, all the connections and Javier.
So happy he got his first Derby win!
Yes and he earned it. He moved forward of that last race. He and Derma were in the same spot at the turn for home and he charged into the spot. Derma was beat at that moment. Mage turned on the jets and looked brilliant. What a race by Mage and Javier. They earned it. He was the best horse and anyone saying Forte would have won is wrong. This horsed stepped up his game. Forte will have his chance down the road but my money is on this guy to repeat in the Preakness. The Belmont is another race but we will have a full field in Baltimore for sure.
How can anyone know one way or the other what would have happened if Forte had been in the race?
Exactly. They can’t but it is easy to see that they would think that given the results of the Florida Derby. But the reality is Mage improved and we won’t know if Forte could have until the next race.
I unfortunately did not follow my own advice about betting horses who thrive in the cooler weather after leaving the florida heat. Mage’s trainer said just that this week. I did have mage in my tri for that reason, but i thought A of E would win.
A fast early pace once again: 22 1/5, 45 3/5, 1:10. Great setup for the top finishers. A Florida Derby runner wins the roses for the first time since 2017. Yay! The top three were wonderful. And most important, all runners appear to have gone back to their barns in good condition.
I am overcome with happiness after Mage’s historic win. Javier deserved a Derby for so long. It was nice he did it with a great group of compatriots who are first-class horsemen as well… As I always preach here, the Venezuelan diaspora got the professionalism and skills to achieve great things in America’s Horse Racing.
Looking forward to a rematch between the son of Good Magic and Forte in two weeks…
So, is not going bad for Venezuela … a Venezuelan Jockey last year and Venezuelan connections today.
Congratulations Nelson!
Thanks Lynda… I am happy I decided to see him in the Florida Derby… the majority of my videos was about him.
Well done Nelson, I followed your lead with Mage early on, prior to the Florida Derby. Ended up with Tapit Trice, Angel of Empire and Mage with all the scratches.
Did you end up doing well in your wagering, you seem to have Kingsbarns everywhere?
I did not like Two Phil’s so my trifecta were doomed.
I played an a 2$-exacta with Mage first and the field beneath hunting for a big longshot for place.
But the real money I did today was with Webslinger in the American Turf Stakes.
BTW Did you see the payout of the 0.20 Pick 6 Jackpot … $1.1 million despite three solid single horses winning (General Jim, Cody’s Wish, and Up to the Mark and Mage in my calculations as well). I think a I could have at least 5 winners including Webslinger and I could perhaps include the 38-1 longshot (Nobals) going deep in the first race as the cost permitted.
Sometimes is a good idea trying pick 6 for a change…
Good for you, Nelson. I had Webslinger as well. By the way, did you see the Sayouni 2 year old colt, Johannes Brahms, win at Naas on Saturday. Stardom bound!!
I was not watching Naas but TDN Rising Star notification for Johannes Brahms was sent to my email.
So, I watched the replay in the link. He looked good and his time was respectable (1:13.90).
The son of Siyouni brings back memories of another superior debut winner at Naas named Siskin…
I will be following this one for sure…
Thanks for the note.
Ah, Siskin very nice colt. It’ll be interesting to see how he performs in Japan at stud. He’s free of Halo blood and has the great family of Best In Show.
Dermot Weld was right about Tahiyra she obviously needed the extra 2 weeks. Thrilling race though. The Irish 1,000 should be just right for her. I wish in Europe they’d give the good runners at least 1 run before going into the Guineas races. Six months is a long time between races.
Paddington is the 3 year old colt I like the most. After a Guineas run, Irish or French, he heads for the Prix du Jockey Club the race that makes stallions these days.
Just realized your ‘secret weapon’ did the business. When you’re on a good thing…
That was a very exciting race; very happy for winner’s jockey and numerous owners! I put $60 on Mage just before the race, and the $960 I won just about paid for all my futures…Very much looking forward to a competitive Preakness; should be a good betting race…
Mage was originally one of my picks. When Mandarin Hero and King Russell drew in, I decided to drop him. This very morning, when I learned Forte, another of my picks, scratched, I thought, “Should I add Mage back in?” Decided not to. Sigh. Happy for Javier Castellano, though!
Wow. Great race. The commonwealth group wins. This is a great day for thoroughbred racing. Who’s going to invest now? Anybody who loves the game. Big moment.
I guess the notion that a horse needs seasoning to win the Derby has been now effectively tossed out the window! Betting angles have become more complicated for the Derby but it’s always a hard one to handicap. Congrats Mage!
Did not see Mage coming! Brilliant victory, and how bout that Two Phil’s? And Angel and Disarm finished 3rd and 4th.
And trained by Gustavo Delgado, a great and much underrated trainer.
Hi
I am calling Verifying to salvage a disappointing day for Coolmore.
I hope all the horses and jockeys return safely and that it is a clean race.
greg (Fan of Damascus)
Greg, don’t feel too bad for Coolmore, they have a sparkling new 2 year old colt, Johannes Brahms, who won at Naas on Saturday.
Ok here are my picks, Super 6,14,17 with 6,14,17 w 3-6,11,14,17,22 w 1,3-6,11,14,17,22
Super 17 w 2,7 w 3-6,11,14,22 w 1,3-6,11,13,14,22
Tri 3-6,11 w14,17, w 3-6,11,14,17,22
Not a Mattress Wager but hopefully, a winning one. Good luck to all.
Hear Mi Song vanned off after finishing 4th.
No details as of yet
Two have been put down today..
Can’t believe Forte, Practical Move, and Skinner are all out of the derby.
Think the runway is clear for Derma to take off, crush this field now.
My bet is in. Good luck everyone.
$75 Win – Derma = $75
.50 Trifecta – Derma > All > All = $136
.50 Trifecta – Derma > Angel, Tapit > All = $16
.50 Trifecta – Derma > All > Angel, Tapit = $16
$1 Oaks/Derby Double – All > Derma = $14
But, who do you really like? 🙂
Someone on the NBC feed mentioned Joel Rosario is on a 0 – 13 run at the Churchill meet. That an a weird hunch feeling led me to make a $5 bet on Disarm.
“Turn speed” just like Cody’s Wish did it. Two Phil’s, Disarm, Angel of Empire, Mage all seem to have that move.
Good call!
Well said Mark S. – that’s the superfecta you gave out today 2 hours before the race!!!
Well done. I hope you put your house on it.
Chloe’s Dream fractured knee in 2nd race at CHD.
Vanned off and euthanized.
Just when I was celebrating General Jim’s victory in the Pat Day Mile. Two horses dead so far. Safe trips for all the rest.
Oh,no! Two of them today? Maybe being scratched isn’t as bad as I thought.
Yes, both on dirt.
Just heartbroken for the connections.
I was so worried about Cody’s Wish.
Cody’ Wish wins by 4 lengths.
I know little Cody Dorman is over the moon.
He did not look well out there..the boy, not the horse. ..
I think Cody looked wonderful.
Tough day today, but watching Cody’s Wish run so well and win for Cody really emphasizes the bond between horses and their caretakers. It’s not always about the money. Long live Cody, long Live Cody’s Wish.
EB, his win brought tears!
They took him over to see Cody after the race.
There is a connection there between this horse and this young man that just cannot be explained.
Mr Mott said Cody’s Wish stopped as of he looking for him.
Hands down, in my opinion, the best race of the day!
Freezing Point suffered a fracture in Pat Day Mile, vanned off and has been euthanized.
I’m on Mage….If he can sit off the frontrunner, Reincarnate, Verifying and Derma S—who just may send from out there—Mage can swing around them, at the top of the stretch and wave goodbye, and sayanora!..
Track is fast….a quality horse with natural speed could win the roses!..
Congrats on your winning pick!
Thank you I got the Oaks/Derby double four times…the exacta…the trifecta…and win/place/show the ONLY horse I ended up playing, Blues my Great Dane gets a porterhouse steak….wifey gets most of my winnings…and I get respect—because I picked the right horse, and I played it right!…..I wanted a good break, and he broke last—I thought Hit Show was going to win he was perfectly positioned, but the pace was too fast, closers ran top four….
Very impressive! I hope your doggie shares some of his steak with you. 😉
Congrats, Matthew. That was an exciting race.
Expletives, expletives! I really wanted this one for Forte, and as I’ve said before, I thought he had it. All year my Derby Dozen would have been Forte, Forte, Forte,… etc., etc. Now I don’t know what I think. I guess I’m going to go for his stablemates Tapit Trice and Kingsbarns with Mandarin Hero as a longshot pick. And I’ll hope that Forte is okay for the Preakness.
Remember when I Want Revenge and A. P. Indy were scratched late from the Derby, body blows.
Oh, yes. This week is the 60th anniversary of my interest in horse racing, and I’ve seen this happen before but not to a horse I loved as much as Forte. But if you lengthen the time span by a week or so, then you get Graustark and Eskendereya, and those two were similarly devastating. We just have to move on, but the Derby really lost something today.
ML favorite Omaha Beach was a late scratch, too.
I felt the same when Omaha Beach was scratched.
Go back to week 4 analysis of Forte and the verdict was that he wont start (according to the form guide given from his ancestory)…
And so it is!
New plan of attack after reviewing PPs. I identified three A horses (Tapit Trice, Angel of Empire, and Verifying), two Bs (Derma Sotogake and Two Phil’s) and 2 Cs (Confidence Game, Reincarnate). Going to bet all 7 in a $42 exacta box. If I can get into my Twin Spires account.
Oh dear, I actually bet real money. Had no idea it was so easy.
Good luck, Ms Blacktype. That made me laugh. I’m on to a third coffee, after a second tea. Lol.
Here’s an angle that’s been incredibly successful since 2014…even with favorites:
*Horse won a G1 final prep by 3 lengths or more.*
Check it out!
That stat points to Angel of Empire, Two Phil’s, and Kingsbarns.
I thought I replied, but it’s not here! Anyway, the angle is about a Grade ONE final prep. So it points only to AoE.
Roberta, anything is possible for this Derby. Crazy… best of luck. I’m hoping Tapit Trice can get a clear run 2 furlongs out.
What a week! Good luck to you as well!
Roberta, I turned my iPad on for news from the Kentucky Derby and this was the lead “Seven Horses Die in Kentucky Derby Week”. I fear this will be the story from the Kentucky Derby not who won.
Sorry to say that whatever negative attention is directed at thoroughbred racing is deserved and necessary. Something is rotten, and not just in the state of Kentucky.
Who was the seventh one? I know about the two on Derby Day, the two trained by Saffie Joseph, Wild on Ice, and a Lukas filly. But I didn’t hear about the other one. Whoever they are, it’s seven too many, but I just wondered what I missed.
“On April 29, 3-year-old gelding Code of Kings died after flipping and breaking his neck in Churchill’s temporary paddock before a race.”
Jiffy, this might be the one you have missed, a direct quote from the news report.
Thank you. That must have been the one I missed. What an awful accident!
Here’s my top 5 for the KY Derby: KingsBarns/AOE/Derma S./TT/Disarm. I bet a big exacta box KB/AOE. My TRI key horse is KingsBarns. I boxed KB with my other 4. I boxed my 5 in a SF Box . I did leave off TT for the Win spot in the SF. I’m hoping KB and Disarm fire a big shot, those are my 2 KDFW horses. Also played a late P5. 1,5,7,9/1,2,11/7/5,7,9/5,6,11,14/17. I believe KB will win the KY Derby. Safe trips to all.
Hit Show, Verifying, Angel of Empire in a Cox Box.
LOL…Cox box. Good luck!
YAY, I GOT COX IN A BOX! WHEN IN DOUBT, BOX COX! GOOD LUCK TO YOU, ROBERTA! YAY COX!
In TV interviews today, both Repole and Pletcher said that Forte’s bruise was noticed on Wednesday. I must be getting senile, as I can’t recall that disclosure. /s
Pletcher was asked about a three-quarter shoe put on Forte for his Thursday gallop. He didn’t mention the bruise, just said it was something he routinely did with his horses. Talk about coy.
Roberta, remember when one of the press guys asked Pletcher about Forte’s stumble on the track – Pletcher kind of clarified that the question was about the stumble. With hindsight…
Yeah, Pletcher is the Sgt Schultz of thoroughbred trainers.
Ha ha made me giggle. Imagining Pletcher with the helmet on saying “I know nothing…NoTHING!!
Just went back over the Derby field with the free PPs available on drf and have settled on Mandarin Hero (whom I fondly call Mandarin Orange) as my pick to win. Have absolutely no confidence in my choice, given all the kerfuffle of the last 48 hours. It’s like we’ve all entered a reality TV show where the producers changed things up at the last minute to throw everyone a curve.
Should go back and try to figure out how the race will unfold.
I am using Mage as a proxy for Forte and Mandarin Hero for Skinner in my exotics.
Well reasoned, Nelson!
Dettori FOREVER!
Spectacular ride with Chaldean to win the 2000 Guineas … the great Jockey is retiring in style!!!!
Oh what a sire Frankel has become!
Congratulations to Frankie and Juddmont!!!
That was a wonderful race for Chaldean, and thrilled that Frankel has his first Guineas winner. Dettori’s second Guineas of the week! (He won the Italian Guineas on May 1.)
Ms Blacktype, Frankie Dettori has won the 2,000 Guineas before: 1996 Mark of Esteem, 1999 Island Sands, 2016 Galileo Gold. There goes the chances of an English Triple Crown for this year as Chaldean is really a pure miler but so happy for Frankie Dettori.
Nelson, Frankie Dettori is riding as good as ever such a pity he has to retire, he gives European racing so much sparkle. I always think it’s best to give the colts a race before the 2,000 Guineas, Auguste Rodin looked flat. Man City beat Leeds so the premiership is looking good.
Best of luck in the Kentucky Derby.
As per usual they will be blaming the condition of the turf for subpar race of Auguste Rodin…
Perhaps Dettori will play a Tom Brady card and will come out of retirement because he would miss all the fun …
Nelson, O’Brien said this beforehand: “Everything has gone well with the two colts in the lead-up, but the one concern I would have is that they travelled over on Friday and will spend the night in Newmarket. We’ve never travelled the day before to the Guineas so this is something we’re not used to doing. As regards the ground, I hope the rain stays away for both horses.”
I’m a bit worried about Tahiyra now in the 1,000 Guineas as Dermot Weld said: “She traveled over on the ferry on Friday. It was a long journey but she’s fine. The race is two weeks earlier than I’d have ideally liked.” She looked truly special last year.
Since they drew the field on Monday 25% of the field scratched..
Technically, 4 out of 20 is one-fifth, but it’s still a lot, Matthew. After this, we can all use a fifth (of bourbon).
It’s difficult to keep track with so many scratches, but Forte is the 5th one.
Irony, Todd Pletcher was asked earlier about the scratchings and he responded by saying “you kind of expect that these days.”
If the current Cultural environment were dominant in the 70’s a horse like Forego would have never race … I am sure you can come up with other great horses who never were “100%-pain-free” but always showed great performances and survived in doing so…
This is a hot topic that merits a lot of debate/discussion… there is a lot of conflicting interests in those shaky decisions.
Good point Nelson. The world has changed and racing will have to follow, the deaths this week/today will no doubt be more fuel for those who want to close down racing. Between you and me, I think dirt racing is doomed. Turf racing is safer, is more aesthetically pleasing, and joins the world.
5 out of 20 is 25%….since the draw 5 scratches..
…but I love your comment, about we can all use a fifth!!!
Still got a few hours to go…what other “shoes” are going to drop? After the tragic death of Wild On Ice defections just cascaded from there. This was after it seems horses and their connections in the top 20 were clutching their golden tickets…with apologies to Willy Wonka.
Look for Churchill Downs to soon declare the 149th Kentucky Derby a non-betting affair-tongue in cheek, of course.
First thing I saw when I opened up my laptop was that Forte was scratched. That tiny gate at the Preakness is getting mighty full.
Not only do we all have the re-sort the players, we have to figure out what gate each horse is REALLY leaving from. I’m now thinking one of the horses that go for the lead (Reincarnate, Verifying) could win the Roses.
I posted new trifecta boxes. Totally confusing race.
Care to share with us, Steve? The odds are going to be all over the place in any case.
The nightmare continues. Back to the drawing board again.
Been watching coronation and just saw the announcement about Forte.
What an awful ten days this has been.
A week ago, all signs pointed to a spectacular, uncontroversial Kentucky derby.. This is horrible.
Wow now Forte has scratched…what we gonna do here Steve? This is wild
I know I just saw that myself, wild indeed
Hi Steve, awesome stuff as usual. Will you be making another post with adjustments since Skinner scratched? Best of luck to you and a safe trip for all. You’re the man!
Thank you very much Michael. Right now I’m still trying to recover from the .morning news and make some sense of it. I may wait to see how the odds change tomorrow morning. Reincarnate is taking too much money and I like King Russell but have to figure out what to do with him. He, Hit Show, Thunder snow are bombs for underneath and I’m going to go heavier now on Disarm. I have to figure out what to do with the favorites Tapit Trice, Angel, and Two Phil’s. Very confusing right now
None of the experts like Kingsbarns at all. Hmmm. I was against him too until the other day We’ll see.
Steve, thank you and good luck in rearranging your betting options. With all the confusion over the past 24 hours everything feels a little unsettling, especially from this distance. Your Derby Rankings have been such a pleasure to read week, by week, and better than ever. Will you miss not writing the Derby Rankings?
Your top three colts look the most likely to succeed but their chances are somewhat diminished by their style of running. Whoever receives the most luck during the race will probably win. I was going for a Pletcher double in the Oaks – Derby but Gambling Girl just failed by a stride or so, hopefully, Tapit Trice will go one better.
Busy night/early morning ahead for me: 2,000 Guineas, Manchester City vs Leeds (go City), Coronation of King Charles III, then all eyes on Churchill Downs for a safe, spectacular day of racing. Bliss!!
GO Magpies. We’ll kick Arsenal in the jimmy for you!
I’m counting on you doing exactly that, Newcastle are having a brilliant year as well. Good luck.
Unsettling is the perfect word.
Just saw the sweetest photo of Cody Dorman looking at photos of Cody’s Wish at bedtime.
If there is one horse I want to win more than any other on Saturday it is Cody’s Wish!
Steve, I really appreciate this last summary. You may very well be correct about Kingsbarns. I was impressed with his LA Derby and I like Disarm, but I was not high on him because I felt like many that he just stole the race with cheap fractions on the front. That most likely should be put in the plus column not the minus. As you point out, he does have more speed than those fractions show and he just might be a very intelligent horse on top of all that. He’ll have to show another dimension rating off the pace tomorrow but I do like his chances of being there at the wire. I am landing on Derma and AOE as the top two but I am going to put Kingsbarns in the top and second place of my super as I now have a good feeling about him as well. I’ll use Disarm, Tapit T, Confidence Game, Forte, Two Phils in 3rd place, and maybe add verifying,reincarnate, and mandarin hero on the bottom. I am also going to do a back up super in case the pace holds with Derma on top, verifying and reincarnate in second, AOE and Kingsbarns in 3rd and load the gun for 4th. This super saver is a very likely in my mind. Those two(verifying and reincarnate) might hang in their with Derma. Dropping big bucks since I hit the trifecta in the Oaks today. Thanks again for all your hard work and generosity. Your insight and wealth of information is always appreciated. Good luck with your plays tomorrow. This has been a great road the Derby. All the best Steve and hope you get a good hit tomorrow.
Well done with your Oaks trifecta. I thought Gambling Girl’s run in the Gazelle was the perfect prep. She’ll be hard to beat in the important New York fillies’ races. Good luck tomorrow.
Thank you Davids, and best of luck to you tomorrow. This is going to be a fun race. So many outcomes possible in this wide open Derby. I only kid myself that Derma will have his way. If it were that simple, I would retire early. It’s still more enjoyable than most hobbies. I take it you might be a fan of the Melbourne Cup? We’ll discuss another time. Cheers Mate!
Thanks mate. You’re right, the race is wide open and luck will be the decider. The Cox Plate is the better race than the Melbourne Cup but the most fun is to follow the 2 year old Triple Crown races. It’s structured on similar lines as the US Triple Crown. Good luck, and win.
Congratulations!
Thank you Linda. Can’t wait for tomorrow. This race is such a quintessential slice of the American landscape. I hope we have good weather, safe trips and an all out clean run for the roses more than anything. We can all use a great race without unnecessary drama.
Is there a site to view what the Oaks/Derby double will pays look like? Thanks.
Congratulations to all the winners today and thankful for safe races.
Feel bad for Rich Strike. He looked so good. He may have lost his confidence.
Was hoping Secret Oath would win.
I haven’t said much about the Derby horses this year because I haven’t had anything original to say. I loved Forte last year and I love Forte this year. I want him to win and I think he can. Nothing that he or anyone else has done has changed any of that. I haven’t decided who I like to be second and third. Maybe a Pletcher triple–that would be interesting–or maybe Derma Sotogake in there somewhere or maybe Mandarin Hero. But the important thing is Go, Forte!
Congratulations to PRETTY MISCHIEVOUS, hung out there in post 14! In retrospect, a predictable pick: Family 1X, by Into Mischief from a Grade 1 stakes winning dam. So pleased for Brendan Walsh on his first Oaks victory!
I figured this race was right for an upset, just picked the wrong horse (Defining Purpose, who was too close to a hot pace and faded).
Yes, Ms Blacktype I thought the same. I had Gambling Girl, the pedigree seemed ideal for an Oaks filly.
Davids: I wish I’d looked up the pedigrees of all the Oaks fillies before I closed my laptop this morning before a 3 hour drive that turned into 4 (thank you Mass Pike work crew). I’m not sure a stellar pedigree helps as much with the Derby runners, except possibly to eliminate horses you would automatically throw out based on past performances.
How are you planning your day between the Guineas, the Derby, and the Coronation? I suppose you can watch the latter well before bed!
Reverse cycle. Ha ha Sleep during the day then awake during the night from around 10 pm. The Kentucky Derby is run around 9 am here on Sunday.
Hope you are a night owl, Davids!
Hoot, hoot!! Ha ha Good luck with picking the Derby winner. I think Tapit Trice can pull it off with Angel of Empire and Forte the main dangers. Mage an upset chance to split the above. I’d like the Japanese runners a lot more if they were had posts closer to the rail.
Have no idea who will actually win the race. I may gamble on a couple of superfectas tomorrow if I can log in to my Twin Spires account. One I came up with today with no notes as a passenger in a car:
Forte
Two Phil’s
Verifying
Reincarnation
Might get one out of four!
That’s quite a feasible superfecta, Ms Blacktype, especially if a couple of the more favored runners don’t show up. Good luck. So many possible scenarios for this Derby.
Also thrilled to see that NBC has broken the Derby Day broadcast into only TWO segments, which means I won’t have to wade through thousands of commercials while watching a 4 or 5 p.m. feed. I can probably get in a bike ride and some work on the porch!
I looked at her pedigree and remembered Pretty City Dancer fondly–but did I pick her in the race? Noooo!
Aw, Tyler won aboard Pretty Mischievous. One of my favorite jockeys, he is always so affectionate with the horses.
Yes, he seems like a good guy as well as a good jockey.
Yes, always positive and enthusiastic a great ambassador for the sport.
Got an oaks derby double. All / Derma
Really liking KingsBarns chances tomorrow in the KYDerby. I’m glad TP made it clear that all 3 of his horses are doing well heading into the KY Derby. Disarm is flying under the radar and looks to be sitting on a big race. KB a good price at 11-1 in the early betting as well as Disarm at 25-1 in early betting. KingsBarns has looked like a real pro in all 3 of his races and his Beyers have taken big leaps in all 3 starts. Disarm is dead fit and his training has shown it . Would love to see a KB/Disarm exacta to compliment my remaining KDFW horses.
Steve: I meant to comment on last week’s column. The old “Derby Doings” led to my best Derby score. The great Joe Hirsch said something like ” Ferdinand has blossomed here in these last two weeks. And as he crossed the finish line is his final Derby work, a rainbow broke out over these historic Downs.” That and Whittingham were enough for me, and thanks to one of the all-time great rides by Willie Shoemaker, he pulled the upset. Thanks again for all your hard work and good luck tomorrow.
I remember that ride….from the one post Shoe got him out OK….was in front of several but then when the outside horses came over he got pinched back to last place, abd down the backstretch they picked them off, one by one and then they found that inside seam, and Shoe drove Ferdinand into the history books, beating Rampage to the spot—otherwise the 1986 Derby would’ve been won by Rampage, and Pat Day….
Spot-n analysis. I watched the replay earlier today.
I thought Snow Chief, who had won three 9 furlong Derbies…was sitting perfectly, but that pace was torrid, and the wall of horses came along, a pace collapse!..
Who is riding cyclone mischief can’t seem to find thanks good luck all !
Lanerie
My two biggest ($10) futures wagers were Practical Move at 89-1 and Skinner at around 50-1—- was patting myself on the back on Monday, drawing very well and then WHAM-O! Now it’s an Oaks double, all–Mage, and place/show Mage thus year with the fever bug my sails are standing but there’s little wind, even liking Johannes and Fort Bragg on the undercarriage has been tempered, by the questions, are they sick or getting sick? Anyway at least my first big play today was on Smile Happy, who looks good!
….(love that spell check)…..
Tough break Matthew. There is a virus running around at SA. It took Go Rocket Ride out of the SA Derby and now it takes out these two from the Derby.
When you’re marooned in one spot….bugs can get to you! In a way, though….Practical Move and Skinner were fortunate–fortunate to escape the Derby gruel…..they will resurface, and as there are no big dirt races out here, for three year olds they will either go east or run in the Pacific Classic, probably they will travel….
These shipping fever type infections spread easily from horse to horse, barn to barn.
Hope they recover quickly and are back in top form soon.
Very talented colts, they have a bright future!
Goodness, this has been an eventful 24 hours! I am delighted for the connections of King Russell but especially sorry for Juan Hernandez, missing out on what would have been his first Kentucky Derby. I’m sure he’ll get more chances in the coming years.
KD appears to be an east coast race with a couple midwest horses. Is Baffert running in Preakness to make it more balanced of a race? Any update on cave rock?
So two of the four (!) scratches are due to an elevated temperature. Both shipped from SoCal. Were they on the same plane?
Roberta, I think they were. That was a question I was going to ask. Reincarnate as I recall arrived separately as did Mandarin Hero.
I did not notice that the three horses from Japan are staying and working out of the isolation barn.There were several videos posted earlier of these 3 in the isolation barn.
Skinner flew solo. Reincanate and Practical move flew together.
Thank you Steve.
Hate to be the poor soul in the middle seat between those two…
Oh brother. Not a good thing for Reincarnate’s chances. A virus took out Go Rocket Ride from the SA Derby and now these two. Something is going around down there. I hope Reincarnate doesn’t spike up before Saturday.
Good article on Blood Horse this morning, interview with Todd.
All three of his Derby entries on course for Saturday.
Brief video of Forte galloping, very smooth and perfect lead changes.
Todd also said the it is standard procedure for all entries to be on the Vets List before the Derby.
Both Forte and Kingsbarns cooled out just fine from their gallops this morning.
Disappointed of course for Skinner, out with a fever. Hoping he recovers quickly and will be back on the track soon.
The article said it was standard procedure for all horses to be closely tracked by the KHRC. Not that it’s standard procedure for all to be on the Vet’s List. Kingsbarns, and some Brad C. horses are on the list, not every horse in the Derby. They’re scheduled to come off it tomorrow, wouldn’t say why Forte was on it. I think the reference to standard protocol was to how it’s handled once they’re on the list, and what puts them on the list in the first place, they went on it on April 22.
Pletcher is the one who said that is was standard protocol to be on the list and that had been since April 22nd.
The problem as I see it is that these rumors that are flying are coming from people who have seen the lists and trying to put 2 and 2 together and spreading gossip that Forte is going to be scratched.
Great to hear your voice again on Byk. What the hell is goin on.
Skinner out.
Have to make new bets. Everything is messed up.
Still got a day and a half to go…hang tight.
Thanks for the update. Back to the drawing board. This year has got to be one of the craziest ever.
Ugh!!!
Don’t sleep on King Russell
So aggravating and so much nonsense the past few years.
Is that old Wall Street job looking any better, Steve?
I hope someone can figure out and tell us how the pace scenario will unfold — and how this affects PPs.
Johnny V just in an interview said he will be going to lead with Reincarnate No worse sitting 3rd but wants the lead.
Thanks Jeff. I have him in one of my superfectas.
So bummed. They might be running this Derby without me. Maybe I’ll get my first round of golf in instead.
Steve, thanks for all your hard work. I bet your phone has been ringing and buzzing like crazy the last 24 hrs with calls and texts. I know mine has and I’m not even a famous racing columnist.
Clownskill, I am with you! Might put a tiny wager on reincarnate but this is a weak sauce KD.
Good grief! So the East vs West battle is between Tapit Trice and Mandarin Hero? Ha ha!
No. Forte vs Mandarin Hero! (For a moment, I thought the favorite was scratched!)
My pick for the Oaks is DEFINING PURPOSE. She’s a grade 1 winner, and I really liked her last work, a bullet and best of 150 at 4 furlongs. Morning line for her is a ridiculously high 12 to 1, so she’s a value pick too. Of course, my picking her means Wet Paint will bury the field.
Mandarin Hero and King Russell are both hitting the board!
Update! Steve are you hearing rumors? Mehopes it’s BS mehopes for a 20-horse field..
You’ve got my attention. Any clues as to what may or may not be happening?
Rumors about what? King Russell getting in? That one is true.
Well at least Mandarin Hero drew in…. a horse that finishes a nose 2nd in the Santa Anita Derby should be in….I’m not using either of the Japan horses, not because they aren’t good, I’ve noticed over the decades—horses can run very well right off of the plane, because the time change catches up with their system, their first starts are usually better than their next starts—after drawing 20—there are three defections, and a trainer has been branded, Ala Chuck Connors, who as the song goes “was innocent, not a charge was true”….something doesn’t pass the smell test,,about Mr Joseph, who was going to scratch his other weekend entrants, for why, and what reason?….so they had the 2019 DQ, and two years later find the trainer had been cheating.. they had the 2021 DQ for a therapeutic overage….and now they have a cloud covering the biggest day in American Horse Racing— Horse Racing is under siege..
And to ad—the 2019 thero overage was one of many by a trainer who just didn’t seem to care enough about throwing shade on Horse Racing’s biggest days, he has a hand in this cloud that covers our sport…..I like the guy—but not once did or has he apologized to US ALL—-about making news, bad news, in our sport—fight your case, he was a terrific horse that fought them all off—fight for his honor, but apologize, to us, to the sport—and to Medina Spirit.
MEANT this to be trainer of 2021 Derby….
Horse racing is under siege from outside influences but our biggest problem comes from within and if we don’t treat this cancer it won’t be Call to Post being trumpeted it will be Joshua’s Horn .
So…there is a #23 this year?…
What a crazy day! At this rate, we may see a 14-horse field.
Please, make it real.
Roberta, with all this scrutiny CDI have now why don’t they limit the race to 14 horses and give most horses a reasonable chance of winning. I can’t remember such ludicrous activity before a world famous race. How many handicappers have lost out by the forced, and unforced, scratchings?
Haven’t the recent outlawing(s) deterred the unscrupulous?
Well…Japan has 20-horse fields, and often….I like the race, yes its tough, but the winner is usually a pretty good horse, it’s unique, HERE—I like betting it!..
Matthew, Tokyo Racecourse is much larger in size than Churchill Downs. 20 horse fields would be fine at Belmont Park.
If you go to 14 horse gate you will lower the bar for greatness.
Derek, the 1973 field for the Kentucky Derby was 13, the 1977 field was 15, 1978 field was 11, 1979 field was 10. These winners lack greatness? I think not.
Continuar scratched king Russell in good luck all
Drama, tragedy, to farce all in a few hours what a shemozzle.
And I just finished reorganizing my list! Continuar was at the bottom in any event. Like so many others here, I see about six or seven horses who have real chances to win with the right trip. It’s just which six!
Mandarin Hero is now the third Japanese horse vying for the Roses. He was a mystery horse in the Santa Anita Derby. He did not win as it happened in the Black Stallion movie but roared loud and clearly against the best Californians. Did not help Mandarin Hero’s case the fact that he had run exclusively at the Tokyo City racetrack which belongs to a circuit of Racing by Local Governments（NAR). There are 15 racecourses administered by different prefectures and municipal governments.
That circuit is perceived as one offering lesser quality of horses, but the following international dirt horses came from that system.
Chuwa Wizard(JPN): 2nd and 3rd in two consecutives Dubai World Cups
Master Fencer(JPN): 6th in the 2019 Kentucky Derby only 4 lengths behind Maximum Security.
Matera Sky(USA): second in three top level sprint Stakes at Saudi Arabia and Dubai.
Marche Lorraine(JPN): winner of the 2021 Breeder’s Cup Distaff
Mandarin Hero is a small horse with great agility which are big assets in the Derby however the post position (20) could prove detrimental to his chances. Anyway, the small warrior brings a lot of intrigue this Saturday.
Many examples abound proving that a really good horse could come from anywhere… and if this anywhere happens to be Japan then the notion is much more plausible.
And his jockey won the Eclipse for Apprentice Jockey in 2019 as I recall and he has been very successful in Canada.
Only thing that concerns me is that he had very little time on the track at CHD.
He does deserve consideration. He traveled, competed well, and does deserve respect. If he takes a step forward he is in the mix. Back to the drawing board. Hope this is the end of in, not in at Louisville.
Wouldn’t be the first horse not to spend much time at CD before the race. The race just got a bit more interesting and more controversy as they will talk non stop about how he got in
Laura I was speaking in terms of International Horses, not American horses.
Yes Lynda. Kimura is already leading the Jockey standings at Woodbine and he was champion jockey there last year. He’s had a remarkable run in only five years in NA.
He also was successful in Grade Stakes company while wintering at Santa Anita.
Watching Kimura winning the Frank E. Kilroe Mile with Gold Phoenix against a group of elite Jockeys convinced me he got a brilliant future in North America.
The Derby will be a litmus test for the Japanese connections though…
Thanks Steve, it really is a puzzle with so many pieces. I’m going to use Confidence Game. The layoff doesn’t bother me. Desormeaux knows more about training horses than I do. CG looks fantastic. I remember you writing about Dr.Fager and the way he looked with his mane blowing in the wind, looking wild. I think Keith may have him primed perfectly and the breeding – jeez – how could he be bought for $25k! I think he’ll get a piece .Good luck! PS: looks like I be using Mandarin Hero on some tickets as well.
Dear Steve Haskin–
I hope you will have a chance to contact Stone Farm and speak with Arthur Hancock III. That would be an interesting conversation and article. Three of Sunday Silence’s great grandsons are running in the Derby this year. I would love to hear his take on it.
Thanks again for doing such a marvelous job of researching each horse’s pedigree, style of racing, past performances, and then handicapping them and analyzing their post positions. It’s a daunting task.
Terri, do you know that Auguste Rodin, the red hot favorite for the 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket this Saturday, is by Deep Impact. Aidan O’Brian is confident that Auguste Rodin can win the English Triple Crown with Auguste Rodin.
Auguste Rodin also goes back to Secretatiat thru his dam, Rhododendron.
Thanks Davids and Lynda King for your information about Auguste Rodin. ( By the way, I love the Rodin Museum in Philadelphia.) What a great combination: Deep Impact and Secretariat.
TerriZ, Mandarin Hero also goes back to Secretariat through Storm Cat.
Another name that caught my eye in Mandarin Hero’s pedigree on the dam side was Shecky Green who finished 6th to Secretariat in the 1973 Kentucky Derby.
Sigh…this matter with Saffie is fast moving.
I had to remind myself a few minutes ago that we do not know everything and that the investigation is on going.
So, going forward, mum is the word for me.
I sincerely hope that Practical Move will he over his temperature in time for the Preakness or the Belmont.
So many disappointed people, owners and connections have had their hearts broken and dreams shattered in the past week.
Thoughts and prayers for all.
Thanks Lynda King for your kind thoughts. The poor two horses that died. Oh my. At least the autopsies are being done at Univ of Kentucky.
Everything in my eyes point to Skinner wearing the roses. Sherriff has expertly developed the colt to have primed for a monster run. Workouts at Anita since the SA Derby so so strong. People forget west coast horses have had a rough go training the past 5 months with all time record rains. Skinner now is at high level condition over coming inactivity, even his gallop has been raved by clockers at KD. Lastly, his BSF is just as good as any of the favorites.
I’m so happy for Mandarin Hero to make it into the Derby! At the same time, I’m sorry for those Saffie Joseph horses and I don’t know why so many of them would drop dead at almost the same time. There could be all kinds of reasons, and I hope Churchill Downs does the right kinds of digging– bloodwork, vet bills, barn cameras, etc. I know Bob Baffert used to give all his horse thyroid medication (which most of them wouldn’t need) in order to make them eat better, and I wonder if maybe that could have helped Medina Spirit drop dead. As far as I’m concerned, Medina Spirit (as well other horses like him) was an innocent victim, and I think most people crying foul against Bob Bafffert, Saffie Joseph, and their ilk would agree.
On the brisnet.com past performance sheet, I always pay particular attention to the four categories at the top of the sheet;
“Speed Last Race”, “Prime Power”, “Class Rating” and “Best Speed at Distance”.
Of the four, Prime Power intrigues me the most. I’m not sure how brisnet calculates Prime Power, but I’m sure they know more than I do about handicapping a horse race.
For the Derby, the top three “Prime Power” horses, are Forte (159.2), Hit Show (151.0) and Tapit Trice (150.5).
That said, I’ll box those three in a fairly large trifecta wager.
I’m still working on my Superfecta and Super Hi-5 wagers, but I’ll probably key those three on top in the first three slots, with ALL underneath in the 4th slot in one of my Superfecta wagers.
Confidence Game is my longshot, at 20-1. I’ll swing for he fences, keying him on top, with four others underneath in my Super Hi-5 bet.
I asked my wife to pick four horses, just going by the names. She came up with Forte, Kingsbarns, Rocket Can and Reincarnate. I’ll box those four in a superfecta wager. If she hits, I’ll never hear the end of it. 🙂
Good luck to you Bill and especially to your wife. Stranger things have happened. I recommended Monarchos to my husband as the last good horse left at a Derby party in 2001. He won the entire pool.
Thanks Ms Blacktype.
Just out of curiosity, who is your top pick in the Derby?
Good luck to you as well.
Very flattered, Bill, but I’m not sure which horse is my pick with all of today’s defections. Tossup between Forte, Tapit Trice and Mandarin Hero.
Hi, Bill. That’s a nice trifecta wager. Hit Show will make it a good payout. Brisnet describes Prime Power as “number that measures the quality of each horse’s most recent starts by combining dozens of handicapping factors into one easy-to-use rating. Speed, class, pace, form, weight, distance, and many more factors are combined by a sophisticated algorithm to form this rating.”
Since 2000, only four Derby entries had Prime Power advantages of 6.0 or higher:
Fusiachi Pegasus had an 11-pt advantage. He won the Derby.
Harlan’s Holiday had a 6.3 advantage, and he finished 7th in the Derby.
Big Brown had a 6.4 advantage. He won the Derby.
Tiz the Law had a 6.8 advantage, and he finished 2nd in the Derby.
So…two were winners, and one came in second. Not a bad record at all, even though all four were Derby favorites (Harlan’s Holiday was the 6-1 favorite!). The problem with a big advantage in Prime Power is that you’re not likely to find a horse that’s under the radar. Forte, with a PP advantage of 8.2, will be no exception.
That is the only Prime Power angle that my research has found to be productive for picking Derby winners. But I just can’t bring myself to backing a favorite! Ha ha. That said, Derby winners Medina Spirit, Authentic, Justify, American Pharoah, and Smarty Jones were 2nd in Prime Power. Derby winners Nyquist, California Chrome, and Monarchos were PP leaders with slight advantages.
I hope your wife wins BIG! Ha ha!
Thanks for the reply Roberta
The Prime Power algorithm not only sounds “sophisticated”, but complicated as well. Yes indeed, Forte checks a lot of boxes, and certainly appears to be the horse to beat. I’m starting to give Angel of Empire a hard look, with the highest Equibase Speed Figure in the race, at 106. His speed increases as the distance increases, as evidenced in Arkansas Derby, finishing the last furlong in 12.12 seconds, which produced a “late pace figure” of 108, (2nd highest in the Derby field).
Good luck Roberta.
Good luck to you snd your wife Bill.
Thanks Lynda, and good luck to you as well.
Bill, I agree with your wife on Forte and Kingsbarns, but my support is based on their exceptional pedigrees, not their names. I have no interest in speed figures, particularly in the classic races. Pedigree, track conditions, how a horse looks in the morning, and jockey, are all much more important to me. We all have our own way of handicapping; this works for me. Pedigree analysis is at the top of my list.
There is one thing I know for sure; Johnny V. aboard Reincarnate will make an attempt to go wire to wire. He may be in one of my wagers; he could hang on to hit the superfecta.
With all of the scratches, there is much more work to be done.
Saffie horse out. The 22 is in and live!
I am just thrilled that Mandarin Hero gets a chance to run! I was so impressed with him in the SA Derby.
Mandarin Hero has just entered the chat
Been out all day.
See that Practical Move is out, spiked a fever.
Lord Miles and all of Saffie’s horses scratched as ordered by stewards.
Cyclone Mischief and Mandarin Hero on.
Saw Verifying dumped his rider this morning.
What’s this about Forte stumbling? Did he get hurt ?
Yikes, things are changing by the hour!
Hope Practical Move will be OK.
Where did you see news on Forte? I saw him do it on the video early this morning, it was slight. But what “news” did that generate?
It generated a rumor that he was going to be scratched. The rumor was on FB and Twitter.
I had been out all day and was trying to catch up on all the news that happened today.
I looked for a video of the “stumble” but could find nothing. Guess I did not go far enough in the Twitter feed to see the video.
A filly running in the Oaks also unseated her rider this morning. Both she and Verifying ate daid to be OK, WHEW…thankful.
Good to hear Forte’s stumble was slight.
He was on the May 4th KD morning works show, jogging when he stumbled but recovered right away. Still a concern.
Will find out for sure tomorrow, one way or another, I guess.
This just in, Saffie Joseph and has been suspended and Lord Miles has been scratched.
If he has been suspended, they most have found something suspicious in the blood work.
Article I just read said they were doing additional blood tests.
This is an easy race to bet just box…..8-9-14-15-17. I can’t believe I’m in an act of giving a gift away lol
First of all, let me start by thanking Steve for sharing what some gurus call his crystallized and fluid knowledge about the Kentucky Derby. If you have been following Steve rankings, you don’t even have to review the Past Performances to have a pretty good idea of where every horse stands with respect to each other.
Forte had all the excuses to lose his final prep but still won. In the Florida Derby Forte was so out moved by Mage coming home that I, for an instant, thought that the Champ was getting injured or suffering from some discomfort at least. Now my reading of the Florida Derby is that Forte has an unbreakable will to win.
Forte has always been a non-spectacular worker, so I am not worried about his three last below-average workouts. As for his perceived regression I must just recall previous Derby winners coming off a regression or non-improving last race like Sea Hero, Thunder Gulch, Monarchos, Street Sense, Mine That Bird, I’ll Have Another, and the most notorious case in Mandaloun.
To be fair, there was the case of champion 2-year-old Game Winner giving signals of regressing before the Derby. His wear was confirmed by finishing 5th fencing off the Japanese longshot (58-1) Master Fencer by just a head. I don’t know if this is even comparable to Forte’s case as this champ keeps winning and Game Winner never regained championship level after the BC Juvenile…
Having said that, I agree with Steve in hinting that Angel of Empire could be triggering “from zero to hero” headlines this Saturday. The son of Classic Empire needs only to replicate his performance in the Arkansas Derby to have a winning shot at the Roses.
The pace would be a more decisive factor in this Derby even with the fast Cyclone Mischief entering after the scratch of Practical Move. I foresee that the target horses will be Reincarnate, Mage and Verifying but the latter might be affected by today’s incident (dropping jockey and running lose for 7 furlongs). Depending on how demanding the early fractions are, Forte, Tapit Trice and Angel of Empire may be late by the time their final kicks are in full swing. However, one horse who appears to be immune to any pace is Kingsbarns… he will be Pletcher’s forgotten horse but the one who could be doing the job at the end.
Reincarnate was not 100% fit for the Arkansas Derby due to persistent rains in California during the end of March and mid-April. The son of Good Magic could be the greatest overlay since Country House in 2019.
I find Steve comments about Shirreffs’ preps for preps and horses having no time for hanging while running the Derby to be great arguments in favor of Skinner … after all no one should be surprised by a son of Curlin winning the Derby.
My trifecta reflects a good balance between speed horses and closers.
6 Kingsbarns /7 Reincarnate /14 Angel of Empire/ 15 Forte
6 Kingsbarns /7 Reincarnate /8 Mage/9 Skinner /14 Angel of Empire/ 15 Forte
6 Kingsbarns /7 Reincarnate /8 Mage/9 Skinner /14 Angel of Empire/ 15 Forte
If Mandarin Hero gets in, I will have to somehow accommodate him in the exotics.
Following Steve’s lead I will also have winning tickets for Reincarnate and 50 exacta boxes with him and Kingbarns.
Safe trips and good luck to everyone … Happy Kentucky Derby to all!
I appreeciate it Nelson, thank you and good luck
Nelson, you are so correct about Forte. His workouts have never been impressive. He just wins races at the highest level — four G1s! Let’s not forget a few things about that “regression” in the Florida Derby. First, it came after his spectacular return in the FOY following a 4-month layoff. Second, by the time he came out onto the track for the post parade and warmup, he was not looking good. So we will need to look closely at his appearance prior to Saturday’s race. It will be telling.
About Reincarnate…you wrote about the rains in California affecting his fitness for the Arkansas Derby. Looking at the past performances, I see that he had regular workouts between the Rebel Stakes and the Arkansas Derby. I think that what may have kept him from peak performance was being in a new barn and shipping to Arkansas twice. Good luck with your wagers!
Good Luck, Nelson. I’m hoping Johnny V really goes for it with Reincarnate so he sets it up for Tapit Trice, Angel of Empire, Forte and Skinner now that Practical Move is out. Mage and Confidence Game are the dangers to upset the above four.
Don’t forget the 2,000 Guineas this Saturday and the 1,000 Guineas this Sunday both at Newmarket. The favorites Auguste Rodin for the 2,000 and Tahiyra for the 1,000 look the part. Both could be special.
How the general public will react to the fiasco that’s happening to the Kentucky Derby is hard to determine but you can’t think of anything worse that could happen. Perhaps all the world should run on turf with universal rules.
Thanks Davids.
Reincarnate is strong and resolute enough so as to make Johnny V strategies work beautifully. I am just unable to forget his impressive Sham and how he could have won the Rebel rather easily.
The explanation the HoF Jockey gave for Reincarnate’s subpar Arkansas Derby was interruptions in his training… I believe he is referring to the gallops or other things they do between workouts that were stopped by heavy rains… who knows ? but I can feel the confidence there… it would be beautiful if he can avenge his grand-grand daddy (Holy Bull) flop in the Derby
The 2000 Guineas will be a spectacular race indeed… I am rooting for the other powerhouses in the race: Chaldean (for Juddmonte and Dettori) looking for vindication after running his last without Frankie. Godolphin’s Noble Style and Silver Knott will be giving good account of themselves.
Yes Davids… another K Derby filled with drama. Nothing worst could happen to the Trainer. CDI is playing the safe card but it is also pretending to be judge and executioner at the same time. The general public would not be shocked by the fact that two horses were scratched and two are filling in … you are right about the need of clear rules to avoid visceral reactions. CDI should be prepared for some litigations coming down the pipe… and it will win as usual… abuse of power or being over protective?
Yes Nelson, a win for Frankie would be the highlight. Looks like rain for Saturday at Newmarket which is disappointing but you never know.
Let’s hope the Kentucky Derby is a cleanly run race and will not end up in the courts, again.
Best of luck to you.
Steve, it’s been a long and winding road to the Kentucky Derby. Every week you shared your thoughts and insights on the top contenders. Finally, we are two days away from the big dance and the field is still being sorted out with another defection. All along, you haven’t wavered from your top choice until this column. I am with you on Angel of Empire. He seems to be peeking at the right time.
What is Forte’s, Disarm’s and Rocket Can’s best Thoro-Graph number?
I hsvent chaged my rankings. This is just about handicapping and value. Forte is still ranked No. 1 until they take it away from him. That has nothing to do with betting
Solid ending to a wonderful series. Thank you for your learned knowledge in trying to make sense of all the information of a 20 horse field. Personally I think it would be great if Two Phil’s crossed the line first for several reasons. Good luck to all!
Saw on Dave Grening’s twitter feed that all of Saffie Joseph’s horses to be scratched. If true, Lord Miles out, Mandarin Hero in
And a few minutes ago, Grening reported that “Churchill Downs has now suspended Saffie Joseph Jr. indefinitely from racing and/or applying for stalls at any CDI tracks.” As a regular at Gulfstream for many years, I am not surprised by this action. Whatever is necessary to make horses safer and racing cleaner, I support.
Have been traveling and just now getting a chance this most anticipated of all your columns, Steve. Hilarious that you ended it by saying, “But what do I know?” That’s not true — you probably know more than all the rest of us combined, and this years’ analyses have been the best ever, in my opinion. But this I know if true: trying to pick one single horse to win the Kentucky Derby is like going outside in traffic stark naked.
Like all of us here, I am so grateful to you for sharing all your knowledge and insight with us.
Thank you Ms. B. I appreciate it.
Derma Dominates Derby – I think that will be the headline come Saturday.
He’s busting out of his skin to run another big race in my opinion.
And I just don’t see any of the U.S. horses sitting on a huge race.
Forte and Skinner round out my top 3.
Steve, this has been a brilliant Derby Trail season. I think you’re best! Thank you for the magical ride to get us to this point. I haven’t been able to discount KIngsbarns because the info you provided about his age and the 2 year old work at Gulfstream. If he gets away clean, I can see him being in position to strike. Same with Two Phil’s. I think in the stretch that horses are going to have to run down Derma Sotogake. Will they be able to? IF Two Phil’s gets the right trip I think he wins this race. I won’t be disappointed if Forte wins. I’ll be happy for Repole. I think I’ll be betting Two Phil’s, Kingsbarns, Skinner, Disarm and Derma S. in various scenarios. On the bubble with Verifying, Mage, Rocket Can & Tapit Trice. Thank you for a FANTASTIC Derby Trail 2023!!!
Thanks Tex I like all those bets
Forte, Angel of Empire, Kingsbarns, Mage, Two Phils, Skinner my 6-horse tri box ($60)……nothing against the big grey, but can’t play them all….my last tri box was 2021, I played Rock Your World $200 win…O’Besos $20 wps…and a 5-horse tri box that cost $30, and ran one/two/three/four/five….my case against TT is he’s hard to ride— but looks wise it’s between him and Kingsbarns…
Practical Move scratched, Cyclone Mischief is in.
Hunch play – Rich Strike drew in from also eligible, ran 3rd in final prep. Won the Derby. Cyclone Mischief draws in from also eligible, ran 3rd in final prep. Wins the Derby, anything can happen?? Good luck to all.
What would the Derby trail be without this blog? Far less interesting for sure!
A bit of birthplace trivia relating to my top pick Angel of Empire (who also seems to be the choice of many Haskin blog commenters and others!). Angel was bred in Pennsylvania as I’m sure everyone here knows. According to the Derby media guide, 14 Derby runners since 1966 were bred in PA, with two of them winning. Three of those PA-breds had their final prep in the Arkansas Derby:
*LIL E TEE in 1992 lost the Ark Derby (as 2-1 second favorite) by a neck to odds-on favorite and eventual Preakness winner Pine Bluff, and he won the Ky Derby at odds of 16-1.
*SMARTY JONES in 2004 won the Ark Derby as the even-money favorite and then won the Ky Derby as the 4-1 favorite.
*Falling Sky in 2013 was a fading 4th in the Ark Derby at 9-1, then was the longest shot on the board in the Ky Derby, where he finished last.
Is that a good omen for Angel of Empire? I’d say so!
It’s by far the best blog, I learn from everyone on here. ..
Thank you Roberta. That’s interesting stuff.
Yeah and look who came from Virginia!
George Washington!
Yes Roberta, but “Rhode Island is Famous for You” ha ha I love that song with Blossom Dearie singing it. If you don’t know the song it’s on YouTube.
I’ll look for it, Davids. Blossom Dearie…a blast from the past.
And Secretariat was born in Virginia while Forte was raised there. Good stats for Virginia.
Tale of two chestnuts—I’ll Have Another huge Lewis win, nose win in SA Derby……..Practical Move huge Felipe win, nose win SA Derby… both have fast gallops, both climbed in odds on Derby Day….
With $44K in the win pool PM currently 13-1..
I can’t get past Todd’s record in the Derby. It’s not as if he always goes in with Also Rans. His mounts just don’t put in their best efforts in this race. To me Kingsbarns is this year’s Charge It. He will probably be a ridiculous 4 year old.
I’m keeping the TAPs off of the top of my tickets. I also think Practical Move was the third best horse in the Santa Anita so I’ll pass on him. Tapit Trice and Mage neither one break well so I have them pegged as 19th and 20th the first time past the wire. Too much to ask for either one. I like Two Phil’s, Derma Sotogake and Angel of Empire. I’ll Key AOE in the top 3 spots in a trifecta with Hit Show, Verifying, Skinner, Sun Thunder, Disarm and Continuar for prices. I’m also keying AOE over and under any horse greater than 20-1 just in case! LOL!
Good luck to all the connections and all the bettors (who agree with me!) 🙂
Pletcher has had 62 Derby starters. But he’s 1 for 1 with a Derby favorite. Ha!
Hi Steve,
I can’t make my final Derby bets each year without reading all of your great analysis. I’m glad to see that your thoughts validate my own. I’m torn between Derma and Angel of Empire, but will play a number of exotics mixed with them and the horses you mentioned. Good Luck to everyone and as the late great Harvey Pack used to say “May the Horse be with You”!
Best,
Hammer
Thanks very much, Hammer.
Steve – thanks so much for all of your insights and for always making the Kentucky Derby so much more than the best two minutes in sports. You make it the best sporting season of the year for me. I also love the insights of all the people posting on this board. I think this year is as wide open as any in recent memory. With no stateside super freak standouts this year, I think taking a shot on Derma makes a lot of sense – he could be a special kind. Cementing it for me is that I was graduating college with Sunday Silence won in 1989, and my son graduates this weekend.
The longshot that I like based on great workouts and troubled trips in prep races is Sun Thunder. I will be playing Derma on top as key, with Sun Thunder in exacta, third in trifecta (with AOE, Forte, TT, PM, Kings), and third/fourth in the super (with same others). Good luck to all and thanks again Steve!
I really appreciate that Greg. Thank you very much. Good luck with your bets.
Although I wont be betting him or writing about him at this late hour, there is a decent chance Cyclone Mischief will get in. Just want to add that no horse has made a better phyical appearance than this colt. He is muscled out all over with great muscle tone and moving powerfully in the morning. He is basically one-paced but can keep going. Interesting horse for the back end of the exotics.
“A decent chance Cyclone Mischief will get in”?? So who has a decent chance of scratching?
Looks like Steve had been in discussions with Tim Yakteen. Sad to see but I think Practical Move was best suited for Preakness – maybe this is a blessing in disguise. Hopefully he is well and ready to run in 3+ weeks.
Yep very tough break
I feel just AWFUL for the connections and all racing fans who fell in love with Practical Move, but most of all for the gutsy colt. May he quickly recover, and may we see him contend in the big races ahead.
Thank you Steve for all of your hard work and for sharing your knowledge and insights. May you prosper on Saturday.looking forward to the weekend. Thanks again.
I appreciate it Kenny, thank you
Thoughts…
Did Beyer do a projected number for the UAE Derby…can’t locate it as yet. I’m sticking with Derma Sotogake especially if he breaks from pp #17….#17 gotta win sometime right?
And UAE runners are something like 0/18…that streak is overdue to be broken.
Question of the day and I always struggle with this answer….was Stephen Foster’s My Old Kentucky Home anti-slavery or pro-slavery?
About a 105.
Thanks, which sets DS a couple of notches ahead of the logjam of several horses in the 96-101 range.
Thank you Steve for your “wrap up” on the Derby trail. It’s been a delight since week 1. Appreciate it very much!
I’ve come to the conclusion that there is only 1 colt that stands above the field. Tapit Trice. He has not missed a step getting to the wire 1st this year. Good luck to everyone and let’s enjoy the pinnacle of this classic event.
Thank you Kim and good luck.
Steve, a sincere thank you for all your work and analysis for this. I don’t know where we could of gotten a more clear and concise assessment of all the players. I can’t dismiss Derma Sotogake and to tell the truth I’ve always been a sucker for the UAE Derby winners. Hooking him up with Angel of Empire and Practical Move and Skinner. With that I always read a ditty I have from the 1980 Derby Green Sheet.
My Horse Has a Chance
If he stays sound throughout the race and
If he is not interfered with and
If the race goes as figured and
If the track is to his liking and
If he doesn’t get to much outside and
If his equipment doesn’t break and
If he doesn’t get boxed in and
If he doesn’t cast a shoe and
If he doesn’t get disqualified and
If the Man upstairs is with us all the way
I’d say WE Have a Chance
I just love that piece and to EVERYBODY Good Luck and HAPPY DERBY From Derby Derek.
It’s not saying enough “thanks Steve just thanks”
Lol. greeat stuff, thank you. Btw, I added some comments on Practical Move.
Steve:
Thank you, again, for all of your analysis, insights, stories, and everything else you do on the ride to the Derby: It is a very enjoyable ride! It also has gone by very quickly this year, I fear a consequence of getting older! I am not exaggerating to say that your weekly columns have been a huge part of enjoying my early retirement!
Now, on to the bets: First, best of luck to you: I hope you cash!
Since I have 7 futures horses in with high returns on Practical Move and Verifying, the horse I am concerned about that I don’t have is Angel of Empire, so I placed the following trifecta wheel uding A of E as key horse: it is obviously not a hedge, but I don’t have enough to hedge with a win bet!
14(2,3,5,9,10,15)(2,3,5,9,10,15)
I also added exacta box: 14(3,9,10)
I think Angel of Empire, Two Phils and Practical Move will run big races, but would not be surprised if any of 6 or 7 won…
Good luck to all and really hoping for safe trips.
I really appciate that. Thank you very much. And best of luck with all your bets
The registered foal crop in 2020 was 18,436.
Only .0011% of the number of foals born in 2020 made it into starting gate for the 2023 Kentucky Derby.
I want to congratulate each and every colt and their connections for being a part of that .0011%.
It starts with a dream that is followed by hours and hours of hard work and dedication from the trainers, exercise riders, grooms, hot walkers and the horses themselves just to get a chance of getting into the Derby and I applaud each and every one.
Prayers for the safety of all the horses and jockeys. It is always a win win for every horse and rider to return safely to the barn. May each horse and jockey’s Guardian Angel be with them.
As always Steve, so very appreciative of your expertise, dedication and devotion to the sport of horseracing.
On the 50th Anniversiary of Secretariat’s Triple Crown, we might very well see history made again.
Having watched all of the workouts, reviewed all the pedigrees, watched replays of races, and reviewed race pedigrees, I have narrowed down my list of probables to win or finish in the top 4 to:
Angel of Empire, Confidence Game, Derma Sotagake, Disarm, Forte. (Please note they are listed in alphabetical order).
Long shot selection is Lord Miles. I seem to recall that sometime ago Steve that you wrote about the mare born without eyes, Begum. The late Alice Chandler of Mill Ridge Farm did everything possible to make sure the filly survived and thrived. Begum is Lord Miles’ 6th dam.
Best of luck everyone with your selections and bets.
All the best Lynda. Thank you
Good luck on your picks Steve and great analysis as usual. I am in complete agreement with Kingsbarns. He is my top pick to win the KY Derby. I will be doing a $1 TRI Box with KingsBarns as my key horse having to finish top 3. The other 5 I will use in my TRI Box with KingsBarns are Forte, Disarm, Angel of Empire, Derma Sotagake, and Tapit Trice. I will be swinging for the fences with a $1 SF with KingsBarns on top of the 5 horses that I listed. KingsBarns breaks out of the gate like a shot and I fully expect him to settle in the first flight stalking the pace from whoever guns to the lead. I agree that Disarn has impressed and I am glad to have him at 45-1 in KDFW2. I boxed Disarm with the Field and bet him to win. The field includes 15 horses! I also have boxes with Forte and added some with KingsBarns for Disarm. I bet KingsBarns in KDFW5 to win at 43-1. I boxed him with Disarm and Forte as well as with the Field which includes Derma Sotagake. I will do EX boxes with KingsBarns/ AOE and Tapit Trice on Derby Day. I will bet the late pick 5 using my top 6 led by KingsBarns. Thanks for all that you do Steve. The Derby is finally here and this years derby appears wide open which could lead to big payouts. Good luck on your bets!
Just can’t get enthused about this one.
Anything but the insufferable Repole gang in the winner’s circle would be a plus…
Steve: Regardless of who wins the Derby your analysis over these several months have been outstanding. I have truly enjoyed reading your Derby Rankings each week. Hard to believe its almost over.
I never get tired of saying this, “you are an amazing writer”.
Thank you this thrilling ride.
Bravo!!
I am going with Angel of Empire. I have liked him since day 1 and I see no reason to jump off now.
Exotics will include Forte (can’t believe he would not finish in the top 4), Skinner, Practical Move (been my 2nd choice all along). I may add a couple others like Verifying and Derma Sotogake.
Angel of Empire is a solid #1 for me.
Good luck Maestro:
That is so kind of you Deacon. Thank you very much and have a great Derby
Steve,
God bless for your detailed analysis of the Derby. There just does not seem to be any standouts. But I know that once the race is over, we will all be scratching our heads as to why we did not see that result coming. For myself, I like Angel Of Empire and Two Phils. Thank you for all your hard work each week on the Derby Trail. Am grateful for your expertise and insight.
Thank you Scott. I appreciate the kind words