2023 Derby Rankings – Week 10
With a lot of action over the weekend, some big performances, and new exciting faces added to the Derby picture we are expanding the Rankings this week to 20. Saturday’s Florida Derby and Arkansas Derby should be pretty formful, so it doesn’t seem too likely we’re going to get any major surprises.~ Steve Haskin
Derby Rankings: March 27, 2023 – Week 10
By Steve Haskin
1—Forte (Todd Pletcher, Violence – Queen Caroline, by Blame)
In some odd way the pressure will be on in the Florida Derby, as he towers over his 11 opponents and nothing short of a victory would be acceptable unless something unforeseen happens in the race, even breaking from the 11 post and the addition of the former Baffert horse Fort Bragg, who was scratched out of Sunday’s Sunland Derby. You never want to put the whammy on a horse, but on paper this looks like a pretty easy spot despite the size of the field and the post, especially with Fountain of Youth runner-up Rocket Can passing the race and heading to the Arkansas Derby. Yes, he could get caught wide going into the first turn, but Irad Ortiz will know where to put him and he is good enough to overcome a wide trip. Better that than running into traffic problems stuck down on the inside. What to watch out for is the speed of Cyclone Mischief, the vast improvement of the lightly raced Mage, and whether Remsen winner Dubyuhnell can bounce back off a terrible performance and breaking from post 12. But those three and Fort Bragg are not in the same class as Forte.
2—Practical Move (Tim Yakteen, Practical Joke – Ack Naughty, by Afleet Alex)
Could Practical Move vs. Forte be racing’s next rivalry? No one is bred for it more than Practical Move. His sire traces to Affirmed and his dam traces to Alydar. His sire traces to Damascus and his dam traces to Dr. Fager. His sire traces to Swaps and his dam traces to Nashua. If you’re looking for the perfect blend of speed on top and stamina on the bottom, his sire won Grade 1 stakes at seven furlongs and a one-turn mile and his broodmare sire won the Belmont Stakes by seven lengths. If you’re looking for improving speed figures, his last four Beyers have been 73, 82, 88, and 100 and his late closing Brisnet figures have gone from 75 to 79 to 84 to 94 to 107. Also his 105 Brisnet speed figure in the Los Alamitos Futurity is the highest of any 3-year-old. With his new stablemates Reincarnate and National Treasure headed out of town as is Fort Bragg, he’ll be on his own in the Santa Anita Derby, which unlike the Florida Derby with Forte, should provide a pretty stiff test for him, especially if Mandarin Hero turns out to another of those deadly Japanese invaders. So far he has been the quintessential pro, handling everything thrown at him at all distances, and that should be beneficial when he gets to Churchill Downs. He turned in another strong work, going five furlongs in :59 1/5.
3—Tapit Trice (Todd Pletcher, Tapit – Danzatrice, by Dunkirk)
One of the great mysteries in racing is why no Blue Grass Stakes winner has won the Kentucky Derby since Strike the Gold in 1991. To save you the time, that was 32 years ago. The last Derby winner to even come out of the Blue Grass was Street Sense and that was when it was run on Polytrack. Even the Jeff Ruby Steaks, or whatever it was called at the time, and the Sunland Park Derby have produced more Derby winners than the Blue Grass in the past 16 years. With Tapit Trice trying to break that ignominious streak we do have a legitimate shot of having a historic edition of the race and making the Lexington bluebloods proud. There is an excellent chance we could have stablemates going into the Derby as the top headliners if Tapit Trice and Forte both win their final preps, making them the most potent one-two punch since American Pharoah and Dortmund in 2015. Add Kingsbarns now and Pletcher is totally loaded. As of now Tapit Trice’s main foes could be Gotham winner Raise Cain, National Treasure, Rebel winner Confidence Game, and he is iffy, and Verifying. For Tapit Trice it will all be about how he breaks, especially if he draws an outside post. With a good break and a clean trip I believe he can beat anyone. But he still has to prove it against far better horses than he beat in the Tampa Derby.
4—Hit Show (Brad Cox, Candy Ride – Actress, by Tapit)
He wasn’t entered in the Arkansas Derby so it’s a return to New York for the Wood Memorial where he will be the likely favorite. He demonstrated his sharpness with a six-furlong work in 1:12 3/5, so he looks ready to take on anyone. It just means another trip back up north with the hope for good weather. He is proven at 1 1/8 miles and should be even better than he was in the Withers. What I love from a speed figure standpoint is that he made a huge leap on Thoro-Graph from a 12 1/4 to 4 3/4 two races back, but instead of “bouncing” he took another big move forward with a 2 in the Withers. As we have mentioned he is a May 9 foal and has always had a wonderful disposition, so he should take another step forward in the Wood and still have plenty left in the tank to peak on the first Saturday in May. Some may claim the Wood has not had any success in recent years when it comes to the Derby, but it is still the same track and distance that produced Secretariat, Seattle Slew, Foolish Pleasure, Easy Goer, Empire Maker, Funny Cide, Monarchos, Pleasant Colony, Bold Forbes, Fusaichi Pegasus, Vino Rosso, Frosted, and Mo Donegal. It’s not the race, it’s who the trainers send there. And I believe Cox is sending two good ones this year headed by this guy.
5—Reincarnate (Tim Yakteen, Good Magic – Allanah, by Scat Daddy)
If you ask me what single moment stands out on the Derby trail this year from a visual standpoint I would have to say it was the sight of Reincarnate powering down the stretch with that great extension and fluid stride to finish third in the Rebel after having just about everything go wrong for him in the race, which was his first on a sloppy track, first outside California, and first in a new barn. You don’t have to win to show what you are, and although I was impressed with his courage and tenacity in winning the Sham Stakes after battling on the lead the whole way, I was even more impressed with him in the Rebel coming from ninth, a dozen lengths off the pace. This horse even looks tough from a physical standpoint with his powerful fame, charcoal gray coat and white splotches. His former trainer Bob Baffert, not a man of many words when texting, summed him up in only three words back on February 4: “Strong colt. Tough.” That strength and toughness should have him in the fight down the stretch of the Kentucky Derby. But first he has to take care of business in his second trip back to Oaklawn against some pretty good horses.
6—Derma Sotogake (Hidetaki Otonashi, Mind Your Biscuits – Neo Universe, by Sunday Silence)
We all know by now how formidable the Japanese horses have been all over the world, becoming more and more dominant, and this is a very serious horse who is more than capable of winning the Kentucky Derby after his brilliant performance in the UA Derby. Make of this what you wish, but if he crawled home another sixteenth in :07 1/5 he would have won the Dubai World Cup. We saw his versatility when he went right to the front despite being a confirmed come from behind horse with a powerful late kick. Once he was able to put it in cruise control flicking his ears around you knew he was going to be very tough to catch. But he absolutely crushed his rivals and did it mostly all on his own as he strung out the field in the stretch in his first start over a mile, while striding out beautifully in the final furlong. Yes he is by a top-class sprinter who had a good deal of stamina in his pedigree, but he really gets his stamina from his dam, whose two grandsires are Sunday Silence, winner of the Kentucky Derby, Preakness, and Breeders’ Cup Classic, and Tony Bin, winner of the Arc de Triomphe. His third dam is by the rarely seen Dike, winner of the Gotham and Wood Memorial and a close third in the Kentucky Derby behind Majestic Prince and Arts and Letters. Derma Sotogake actually bears a close resemblance to the flashy chestnut Dike, who ironically also deviated from his late-running style to set the pace in the Belmont Stakes before finishing third. Dike is by major stamina influence Herbager and Derma Sotogake is inbred top and bottom to the class and stamina influence Hail to Reason.
7—Disarm (Steve Asmussen, Gun Runner – Easy Tap, by Tapit)
I gave him the slightest edge over Kingsbarns because I thought so highly of him early on I actually had him ranked No. 12 in Week 1 as a maiden sprint winner. He has done nothing this year to alter that opinion. He just has got to find a better neighborhood in which to hang out, because every time he goes out he gets robbed. That’s twice now he’s had a race stolen right out from under him, and both times the thief took off so fast at the end there was no way he could catch them. First it was Two Eagles River, who set an easy pace and flew home, and now it was Kingsbarns, who was allowed to crawl a half in :49 3/5 and three-quarters in a sluggish 1:14 3/5 in the Louisiana Derby. Disarm, meanwhile, was busy ducking in at the break and bumping with Sun Thunder and then ducking in again, almost into the rail, soon after. He was down on the rail the whole race, and could only watch Kingsbarns open up and come home his final three-sixteenths in a sensational :18 1/5, while he might have even closed a tick faster than that. And he kept going after the wire, galloping out strongly. He has now had two races this year and no chance to win either one while closing strongly each time to get second. But he got a lot out of both of them after being sidelined for six months. With the way he’s come back at 3 and his pedigree, along with getting his much-needed 40 points, I think it’s safe to say he is now ready to peak in the Kentucky Derby, having a strong mile and a 1 3/16-mile race under him. He should be a good price in the next Future Wager, and that is the time to bet him and get a potential huge overlay.
8—Kingsbarns (Todd Pletcher, Uncle Mo – Lady Tapit, by Tapit)
The bad news is that he will go into the Kentucky Derby off only three career starts, the last of which he was able to steal with a lackadaisical three-quarters in 1:14 3/5, which is trotting horse time. The good news is that he gets extra credit for all the work he put in in his troubled career debut (see the very first Knocking on the Door), and by closing his final three-sixteenths in the 1 3/16-mile Louisiana Derby in :18 1/5 he put himself in a position where he was virtually impossible to catch, drawing off to a 3 1/2-length victory. Good luck finding a Preakness in which they came home faster than that. Spendthrift Farm paid $800,000 for him at the OBS 2-year-old sale. He was a big beautiful colt with a great pedigree who breezed fast and did it easily. He came out of the sale with a few minor issues so they took their time with him. Spendthrift general manager Ned Toffey always likes to quote the farm’s late owner B. Wayne Hughes, who used to say he liked horses who had excuses to get beat, but still won anyway. He would have loved Kingsbarns after his first race, because most horses would have gotten beat, but he found a way to win, and that was going one mile, a tough distance to start a career. So although he’s had only three starts he could very well have the necessary experience and is as battle-tested as horses with more than three starts. Who knows, he could be the most talented of Pletcher’s three stars.
9—Raise Cain (Ben Colebrook, Violence – Lemon Belle, by Lemon Drop Kid)
He still has to make believers out of the skeptics who have never known what to make of him, and he has a tough road ahead going against Tapit Trice, National Treasure, Verifying, and possibly Confidence Game in the Blue Grass Stakes. He has finished first and second at odds of 23-1, so he has already surprised a lot of people. He also has won by margins of 5 1/4 and 7 1/2 lengths, the latter in the Gotham Stakes, so he knows how to finish his opponents off. He has also come from third, fourth, fifth, ninth, and 10th in his races, so we know he can be running anywhere on the racetrack. And his six starts have been at five different distances. So do we really know who this horse is and what to expect from him? If his Gotham performance was who he is then we should expect more fireworks from him, especially when he stretches out in distance in what looks to be a tough Arkansas Derby field. The only time he’s been 1 1/16 miles he finished a strong second to a loose on the lead Jace’s Road in the Gun Runner Stakes. Let’s remember, it’s not easy for a horse to put in a big rally from the back of the pack in a 14-horse field, be forced to check when another horse came in on him, and then not only get going again and continuing his rally, but win by 7 1/2 lengths. It might not be wise to underestimate this colt.
10—Two Phil’s (Larry Rivelli, Hard Spun – Mia Torri, by General Quarters)
If there is one thing I’ve learned on the Derby trail it is to respect horses coming off a synthetic surface, especially when they are already proven dirt horses. Two Phil’s has been a trainer’s dream, having run at six tracks and finishing in the money at five of them, four in stakes, including a powerful victory in Saturday’s Jeff Ruby Steaks in his first start over a synthetic surface and defeating a number of proven stakes horses. He has now won or placed in stakes at Turfway Park, Churchill Downs, Fair Grounds, and Canterbury Downs. Not only did he defeat stakes winners on synthetic or grass Funtastic Again, Congruent, and Major Dude and an undefeated synthetic horse Wadsworth, he mowed them down like he’d been running on synthetic all his life, drawing off to a 5 1/4-length victory in 1:49 flat and coming home his final three-eighths in a sensational :36 2/5 (:24 1/5 and :12 1/5). He now has now won stakes at six furlongs and 1 1/16 miles on dirt and 1 1/8 miles on synthetic, and now heads back to dirt, just as Rich Strike did last year. His breeder withdrew him from a sale as a weanling, had to buy him back when he failed to meet is reserve as a yearling, and withdrew him again from a sale as a 2-year-old, finally having to keep him and race him. We should all be so unlucky being forced to keep a horse who has already earned almost $700,000 and is heading to the Kentucky Derby.
11—Geaux Rocket Ride (Dick Mandella, Candy Ride – Beyond Grace, by Uncle Mo)
If you’re looking for a good back story, in 2021, Matt Wiseman of Equine Analysis Systems met Jim and Dana Bernhard at the Fasig-Tipton Kentucky yearling sale. The Bernhards had never owned a Thoroughbred and Jim wanted to buy one for Dana for her birthday, so he asked Wiseman to find him one. He and his team, as they always do, used their technology and data to measure physiology along with traditional horsemanship. One horse in particular came up with a high statistical likelihood of success, so they bought him for the Bernhards for $350,000. They had high hopes for the colt, and it was confirmed the following year when Wiseman went to see him at Keith Asmussen’s training center in Laredo, Texas where he was being broke. The colt had grown and filled out into a beautiful physical specimen and Wiseman began thinking they might have something special. Even the conservative Dick Mandella raved about him after he began training him. In October of 2022 The Bernhards bought the historic Pin Oak Stud, owned by the late Josephine Abercrombie. They now have started a full-fledged breeding and racing operation, and it all started with the first horse Jim ever bought as a birthday present for his wife. That horse, named Geaux Rocket Ride, is now one of the favorites for the Santa Anita Derby. Now that’s what I call an introduction to racing.
12—Skinner (John Shirreffs, Curlin – Winding Way, by Malibu Moon)
Now that several of the 100-point races have been run and we’ve had some solid additions to the probable Derby hopefuls list, and with two more big races this weekend, it is time for him and others in Southern California to turn up their A game and pick up the necessary points in the Santa Anita Derby. There will be some formidable opponents standing in his way, including the brilliant non-Derby participant Cave Rock, and of course Practical Move. He should get the lively pace he needs with Geaux Rocket Ride in there as well, so if he can get the right setup and a good trip he should be able to earn his way into the Kentucky Derby with another strong closing effort. He is one horse who has really matured over the winter and developed into a professional racehorse. Now we just have to see how he handles a field of fast and classy horses. There is no urgency to win; just close well enough to pick up second and possibly even third, although the latter would make it too close for comfort.
13—Red Route One (Steve Asmussen, Gun Runner – Red House, by Tapit)
We all have seen what a powerful closer this horse is, and perhaps we have asked ourselves what is a son of Gun Runner doing coming from so far back when the vast majority of his offspring have shown good early speed just as he did? Well, the answer might be as simple as looking at his past performances and seeing that in seven career starts he has never sprinted. In his career debut going 1 1/16 miles on grass at Saratoga, he was running sixth in a seven-horse field through sluggish fractions of :50 4/5 and 1:16. He was closer to the pace in his next start, also on grass, at tricky Kentucky Downs, but that was over an extremely deep course and they went the three-quarters in 1:15. So when they put him on dirt for the first time there is a good chance that whatever speed he might have had was taken away from him and it’s often hard to put it back. We keep forgetting how beneficial sprints can be to put speed into a horse. With all that said, he has developed into a dangerous stretch runner, but he has to depend on the speed of others to be most effective.
14—National Treasure (Tim Yakteen, Quality Road – Treasure, by Medaglia d’Oro)
He continued his string of brilliant works with a six-furlong drill in 1:12 1/5. You never want to see a Derby campaign interrupted, especially by a physical setback, so when he missed the San Felipe with a minor foot bruise that put a big question mark over his head. Fortunately he was able to get back to the work tab and with a flourish after being turned over to Yakteen and now looks to be back on track to make the Run for the Roses following some eye-popping works. So instead of following the Santa Anita path he gets an extra week and will head to Keeneland to face Tapit Trice in the Blue Grass Stakes, and there is no reason to think he won’t come back with a strong effort. He has already picked up points in his stakes placings and he just needs to turn in one of his typical solid performances to continue on to Churchill Downs.
15—Slip Mahoney (Brad Cox, Arrogate – Got Lucky, by A.P. Indy)
In his four races, here is where he’s been at the half-mile call: 2nd by a head, 2nd by a half-length, 9th by 5 1/2 lengths, and 13th by 11 lengths. The last two were after breaking slowly. The impressive part is that he ran a big race in all of them, so in some sense it doesn’t matter where he is. Does that sound a bit like his sire Arrogate, who won the Travers in a track-record romp on the front end, the Breeders’ Cup Classic laying just off the pace, and the Dubai World Cup coming from far back in last after breaking slowly? No one is comparing him to Arrogate, but there does seem to be a similar pattern there, so perhaps in some ways he is his father’s son in that he can adjust to anything and still run his race. Looking at his pedigree, we know all about Arrogate, but his dam, by A.P. Indy, won the grade 1 Spinster Stakes and his third dam Get Lucky was a grade 3 winner bred by Ogden Phipps and is a full-sister to Travers winner and 2-year-old champion Rhythm. Get Lucky’s dam Dance Number, a daughter of Hall of Famer Numbered Account, won the grade 1 Beldame Stakes and is a half sister to multiple grade 1 winner Private Account, sire of the great Personal Ensign. Good luck trying to find a better female line than that. He is still one of my top two or three sleepers for the Kentucky Derby.
16—Angel of Empire (Brad Cox, Classic Empire – Armony’s Empire, by To Honor and Serve)
Saturday’s Arkansas Derby will determine if he is the real deal and that his victory in the Risen Star Stakes was just the first step in becoming one of the leading Kentucky Derby contenders. For Cox the Louisiana Derby didn’t go quite as he planned, so a lot of his hopes are now pinned to this guy. His speed figures are all over the place, depending on whether you believe in his Beyers, which say he is too slow right now, or his Brisnet and Thoro-Graph numbers, which say he is right up the with the fastest 3-year-olds. What I do find interesting about him is that in his five starts he’s been ridden by four different jockeys. Take away his one poor effort going 6 1/2 furlongs on grass at Kentucky Downs in his second career start and he has three victories and a second in four starts, all at a mile or 1 1/8 miles. I have never ranked him very high because the Risen Star did not look like a strong race visually, but I’m starting to believe that maybe we’ve only scratched the surface with him and there is still a lot of improvement there. We’ll find out on Saturday when he faces far more talented horses.
17—Rocket Can (Bill Mott, Into Mischief – Tension, by Tapit)
Bill Mott had to pick his poison and he chose a deep, wide-open Arkansas Derby for Rocket Can over crossing paths with Forte again. He had a great shot to finish second again in the Florida Derby and pick up big points, and while he likely has a better shot to win the Arkansas Derby, he also has a better shot to finish out of the money and come away with nothing facing the likes of Reincarnate, Angel of Empire, Red Route One, Two Eagles River, and several up and comers. It all depends on how much improvement he’s made since his well-beaten second-place finish in the Fountain of Youth Stakes and how he handles the move to Oaklawn. If he takes another significant step forward and gets a good trip in a big field he could be right there. This is a tougher spot overall, but you have respect Mott’s decision to go for broke and try for the win.
18—Verifying (Brad Cox, Justify – Diva Delite, by Repent)
I expect to move him higher following this weekend’s races. Following his stunning six-furlong work in 1:12 4/5 at Fair Grounds I am looking forward to seeing him go up against Tapit Trice in the Blue Grass Stakes following his unlucky trip in the Rebel Stakes. He will also be facing the runaway Gotham winner Raise Cain and possibly the Rebel winner Confidence Game, who could go straight to the Derby. So with or without Confidence Game this is shaping up as an intriguing race. I gave him a pass in the Rebel after being hampered by traffic at a crucial point in the race and still managing to finish fourth. I am more inclined to look at his 5 1/4-length allowance victory over Gun Pilot and Two Eagles River and his second-place finish in the Champagne Stakes coming off one six-furlong maiden score. With all the strong Derby contenders Cox had at one point, he could be one of the strongest by the first Saturday in May with a big effort in the Blue Grass.
19—Two Eagles River (Chris Hartman, Cloud Computing – Majestic Island, by Majestic Warrior)
The more I watch his allowance victory over Disarm the more impressed I am from a visual standpoint and by how fast he closed. I decided to put him in the rankings after seeing how fast Disarm came home once again in the Louisiana Derby. This is a horse who got a monster 104 Brisnet speed figure in his career debut going five furlongs in the slop and then ran back-to-back figures of 95. After a regression stretching out to a mile he went back up to a 96 in his last start with a 103 late pace figure. I can’t say this is a Kentucky Derby horse and I don’t know if he can carry is speed a mile and a quarter, as he does have several speed influences in his female family, but I can see him taking the Arkansas Derby field a long way, depending on how Reincarnate breaks and what his strategy will be.
20—Cyclone Mischief (Dale Romans, Into Mischief – Areyoucominghere, by Bernardini)
With the exception of Forte, the Florida Derby has come up a weak race, and there is no reason to believe he won’t take them farther than he did when third in the Fountain of Youth, which was a big bounce back race after his dismal performance in the Holy Bull Stakes. You can bet if he picks up enough points Romans will run him in the Kentucky Derby. His only two victories have come in a maiden and an allowance race, but he was right there at the eighth pole in the Fountain and only gave way late when Forte pulled away from him. He could go right to the front again on Saturday if no one challenges him, but he is more than capable of sitting just off the pace, as he did in his 5 3/4-length allowance victory.
KNOCKING ON THE DOOR
If you want to know how difficult it was to close from off the pace in the Louisiana Derby after those extremely slow fractions just watch the way INSTANT COFFEE picked off horses on the far turn like he was going to blow by everyone only to have his big move stopped abruptly once they turned for home. Remember, he had been off a long time and could very well have been a bit short coming back at 1 3/16 miles. Now I don’t know where he stands. I would keep him at the bottom of the Rankings, feeling he needed the race, but with only 32 points and a number of big races still to be run, there is a major question of whether he will make the cut. That is the drawback when you skip a race with a seemingly healthy horse and then have to lay everything on the line in one race off a layoff and stretching out that far in distance. We’ll just have to monitor how the leader board shapes up in the weeks to come.
I debated long and hard what to do with CONFIDENCE GAME, who I admit deserves to be ranked off his record. But I honestly don’t know what’s going on with him mentally that forced Keith Desormeaux to skip both the Louisiana and Arkansas Derbys and even contemplate going straight to the Kentucky Derby off a 10-week layoff. If the reason is mental that doesn’t bode well for the Derby anyway. So the final option is running in the Blue Grass Stakes, which is going to be a tough race. But if he runs he definitely will return to the Rankings, and if he doesn’t I just can’t see him being a factor off such a long layoff and the reason for it.
The unknown factor for the Florida Derby will be California invader FORT BRAGG, who was scratched from the Sunland Derby by new trainer Tim Yakteen and re-routed to Gulfstream to take on Forte. The son of Tapit was third in the Los Alamitos Futurity and most recently finished fifth in the San Felipe.
The isn’t much to say about Sunday’s Sunland Derby won by 35-1 shot WILD ON ICE, who was beaten more than 20 lengths in both the Riley Allison Derby and Mine The Bird Derby. But this time he tracked the two big favorites, HARD TO FIGURE and HENRY Q and went on to outduel LOW EXPECTATIONS while they both tired.
Here is this week’s trivia quiz. What do these 3-year-old stakes horses have in common? Fountain of Youth winner Forte, Rebel winner Confidence Game, Risen Star winner Angel of Empire, Gotham winner Raise Cain, Gotham runner-up Slip Mahoney, and Mine That Bird Derby winner Henry Q? Answer: All sold at the world’s most exclusive yearling sale, Keeneland September, for under $200,000. Angel of Empire sold for $70,000 and Confidence Game fo $25,000. Even the Kentucky Derby favorite Forte sold for only $110,000. It’s fine if people want to spend millions for yearlings in Book 1 and 2 of the sale, but you can find a top horse way down in the late books if you know what you’re looking at and have a bit of luck. So far this year the Derby trail has been dominated by Keeneland’s Bargain Basement Babies.
ARCTIC ARROGANCE continues to build up his stamina for the Wood Memorial, working six furlongs in a quick 1:13 1/5. This is a tough, hard-trying horse with a strong foundation who has been in his share of battles and you can bet he will make his presence felt in the Wood as he always does. Watch for him to possibly make the Rankings next week, depending what happens on Saturday.
Earlier I mentioned MAGE as a horse who should show big improvement in the Florida Derby after being competitive and giving way grudgingly against Forte in the Fountain of Youth. He was right there going eyeball to eyeball with him turning for home. He had a strange work this week, breezing six furlongs in 1:16 2/5. If that is what trainer Gustavo Delgado was looking for perhaps he is trying to take some of his speed away from him. This is a horse who won his debut going seven furlongs in 1:22 2/5.
The consistent and hard-knocking CLASSIC CAR WASH, second in the Tampa Bay Derby and third in the Sam F. Davis Stakes after impressive victories in a maiden and allowance race, breezed a half in :49 4/5 for trainer Mark Casse. This is another horse who is improving at the right time.
With one serious Japanese horse already to consider, we might want to throw in a couple more possibilities. We have already mentioned MANDARIN HERO who runs in the Santa Anita Derby, and now we have MITONO O, who captured the 1 1/8-mile Fukuryu Stakes, the final race on Japan’s road to the Kentucky Derby. The son of Japanese-bred Logotype was able to score a wire-to-wire 2 1/2-length victory over the right-handed track at Nakayama. Runner-up MOKKU MOKKU closed fast and late from far back and way out in the middle of the track to cut the winner’s margin down from five to six lengths while never threatening.
I was disappointed to see Gulfstream had to adjust the race time for the FL Dby, they added about .9 second, all to the final fraction, which may have just been an expedient. The final was around 13.02, but I figured that Forte ran a half second faster than that, 12.5 (I don’t use 1/5’s), which is respectable, but not the unreal fraction it was for a day, less than 12. GP had the same problem last year! What’s wrong with 1/ST? The name? They never used to have these problems.
Equibase, not Gulfstream. Only the final time was corrected. See TDN site for the story.
According to the official chart from Equibase – as of Sunday night I see that the time is still 1:48.51.
https://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbPDFChartPlus.cfm?RACE=14&BorP=P&TID=GP&CTRY=USA&DT=04/01/2023&DAY=D&STYLE=EQB
Forte’s final furlong was about 12 2/5 sec. That’s pretty good.
Thanks Roberta, I read the story.
Pedigree Online Thoroughbred Database continues to list Dosage Profiles, Dosage Indexes and Center of Distribution (CD)
on the horses that they profile. Some would say this is an outdated science, but if that ‘s the case, why does the database continue to list profiles? I for one, believe the profile, on any given horse, may suggest an indication of speed and stamina.
Nyquist had a high Dosage Index of 6.00, which is relatively high for a Kentucky Derby winner. Yesterday, we saw Angel of Empire win the Arkansas Derby, showing exceptional speed in the late going. He has a Dosage Index of 9.00, which leads me to believe he just might use that late speed to be a major contender in the KD.
Bill, if one is looking for stamina, Angel of Empire has it on the tail of his pedigree. I certainly love his broodmare sire, To Honor and Serve. Further back in his pedigree you will find the Buckpasser/Princequillo combination of stamina. Angel of Empire should be able to carry his speed for a long distance.
Randy Moss was right. I used a stopwatch four times on the telecast replay. The final time ranged from 1:49.35 to 1:49.44. Moss timed it at 1:49.39, so my average is in line with his time. This means that Forte’s final eighth was okay, but not exceptional. I wonder if Equibase will make corrections.
You mean they went with Moss hand timing it? There are ways of doing this using video frame counters, you can’t just hand time it by watching a video with a watch, sorry. And equibase took it as gospel. I wonder what started it because they had all the times up for the race, but didn’t have them for the early races. Why would he raise the issue in the first place? Someone should investigate the investigation.
Equibase has adjusted the final time (only) to 1:49.37. See the story on TDN.
Sincere apologies, just realized I gave Cyclone Mischief a new name.
We all knew who you meant. And Cyclone Magic is a good name. Maybe somebody will use it someday.
Steve…have you ever seen a year where every Derby prep is won by closers? Is there any speed going in the 2023 Kentucky Derby? IF….Geaux Rocket Ride wins next Sat—and he might—-could Richard Mandella and son Gary be coming to Louisville with the controlling speed?..
Derma Sotogake, would appear to be the speed but it’s Churchill Downs not Dubai.
I’ve read some interesting comments made by horseracing analysts and journalists regarding Forte today saying that Forte has not taken a step forward while others such as Mage, Practical Move, Two Phils and Kingsbarns has taken that step up. I even admitted in a comment prior to the Florida Derby that perhaps Forte had reached his ceiling.
Now it comes out that Beyer has downgraded his figure for Forte from 98 to 95.
I just don’t see it that way anymore. I believe that Forte is a winning machine. It could be Ortiz, Jr. or the horse or a combination of both but this team knows how to win.
It reminds me the heavyweight championship years of Ali, Frazier and Foreman. All had charisma and excitement. Then after they left Larry Holmes came on the scene. To some he lacked the charisma and excitement of the other three but Holmes won and won and won. He was a winning machine.
Or for movie buffs I remember “The Verdict” (1982) whereas Ed Concannon played by James Mason opposite Paul Newman and head of a large, powerful law firm would ask his young proteges how a trial went and each time the protege would answer “I did my best” James Mason would then ask “But did you win?”. And what an actor Mason was.
Even Al Davis of the Oakland Raiders would often say “Just win baby.”.
Forte wins. He is a winning machine.
John, using your boxing analogy, perhaps Larry Holmes is about to meet Mike Tyson in the Kentucky Derby. Forte lost a bit of gloss in the Florida Derby in some people’s eyes. Time will tell.
Question is, have they moved Angel of Empire’s Beyer up? Personally, both horses are real contenders for the win at Churchill Downs, no matter what the Beyers say.
We’ll have time to get Steve’s take on ALL the figures well before the horses go to the post.
What the BSF are screaming, with Forte at 95 and the Angel’s at 94, is the winner will be a surprise package-late developer!
Forte has run twice this year, and he has taken a step forward into the winners circle both times!..
Right now, my favorites are Kingsbarns and Angel of Empire. Both of their pedigrees are replete with stamina on the tail.
94 Beyer for Angel of Empire means….if he wins the Derby Beyer will CHANGE the numbers of the Risen Star and Arkensas Derby….I recall Jumron…..72 Beyer at Portland Meadows goes to Bay Meadows 108 Beyer, horse had run several times in the northwest….horse was good, no way did he jump up 36 points in 5 weeks….I recall I’ll Have Another ran 1:40 4/5 and received a 94 Beyer, then won three gr1s…..
Matthew, I just saw this from Mike Welsch at DRF: “According to representatives of the Beyer Speed Figures, the Beyer Figure for Florida Derby winner Forte has been lowered to 95 based on a corrected final time of 1:49.39 as calculated by Randy Moss. No official change in the final time has been reported yet by Equibase.” What the ****?
Ha ha! I’ll wait for the Brisnet figures, and the Thoro-Graph numbers reported by Steve.
Florida derby appeared visually to be a slow race with pace collapsing, and not highest of quality of horses running.
Yes, Jeff. The Ark Derby was a better field, which AoE destroyed!
Your top Derby horses looked like a good list….Hopper runs 1:37 3/5, Angel 1:49 3/5 so he got an extra furlong in :12…….track at Oaklawn not that fast yesterday 1:49 3/5 a TERRIFIC time, I’m worried about a possible bounce, if he repeats that effort in Louisville I think he’ll be a major player!
Bounces ain’t what they used to be. With these lightly raced colts, it’s difficult to bounce off of a big effort. Besides, I don’t think AoE’s figures will be much higher than his Risen Star performance.
I know that it’s very difficult to adequately rank the horses that haven’t had their final prep with those that have. But I will anyway. My Derby Half-Dozen:
1) Practical Move, 2) Forte, 3) Angel of Empire, 4) Tapit Trice, 5) Hit Show, 6) Two Phil’s
Mage, Kingsbarns, and Geaux Rocket Ride don’t make it because I don’t think that any of them are at the level of Justify as colts that didn’t race at 2.
Roberta, the Derby has finally come alive. Forte and Angel of Empire look solid and if Practical Move and Tapit Trice perform well next Saturday, not sure who is in the Wood Memorial at this stage, we’ll have 5 colts, I’m adding Mage, with every chance of winning. The Japanese colts are too difficult to judge, they could be world beaters or totally overrated, who knows? The fun begins, the dreaded post positions.
You’re on target, Davids. I’ve got PM on top because he has the tactical speed that typically wins the derby. Staying out of trouble is a good philosophy in life and in racing.
We’re on the same wavelength, Roberta. The only concern I have with Practical Move is the 10f but the Santa Anita Derby always give you the answer on that score. In the Kentucky Derby, you like colts that can adapt quickly and avoid the inevitable logjams that occur in a 20 horse field.
Angel of Empire got a 94 Beyer, which probably puts both King Russell and one of my favorite horses this year, Reincarnate, in the high 80s.
While I was impressed with both Forte and Angel of Empire, Forte looked more of a beast, at least to me. That said, Angel of Empire really surprised me by burying some good horses in his field. Other than my top two (Forte and Practical Move) yesterday’s races made a big change in my Derby 20. Steve’s rankings should be verrry, verrrry interesting, as Arte Johnson would say.
Yes, Ms Blacktype, Angel of Empire keeps improving with leaps and bounds just the type that wins a Kentucky Derby.
To Steve Haskin:
Did Forte’s antics in the show ring and on the track remind you of his second cousin: Zenyatta? I fell more in love with Forte due to his lovable prancing, dancing, and show boating much like his cousin. And he even has her great closing kick. Irad said that is his usual behavior and then he gets down to business.
To those unfamiliar with Zenyatta: Zenyatta, Forte, and Blame are related through Kris S.Zenyatta’s dam Vertigineux’s sire is Kris S. Forte’s dam is from Blame. Blame’s sire, Arch, was fathered by Chris S. Forte and Zenyatta are second cousins.
Yes, his antics do remind me of Zenyatta!
Thanks Lynda, I thought he reminded me of his cousin, Zenyatta.
Lynda King, I thought Forte was amazing in how he won the race. I love everything about him.
And the biggest irony is that his dam was bred by a Claiborne stallion, Blame, who is a first cousin to Zenyatta. And this is the 50th Anniversary of Secretariat’s Triple Crown. And Penny Chenery started the Secretariat Vox Populi and chose Zenyatta to be the first recipient.
There are not coincidences, the Horse Racing Gods and Ms. Chenery are very busy up in heaven. This year will be special.
Terri, have you watched the overhead view of the stretch?
Mage blew by Forte and then Ortiz boldly sent him 5 wide.
Forte won a race that supposedly impossible for him to win.
What an amazing day on the Derby trail! When Forte entered the walking ring he looked so sharp and ready for a fight. But by the time we got to the rail to get a good position for the post-parade and warmups, he looked liked a different horse. To Nelson Maan, Terri Z, and anyone else who was there, did you see the same thing? I told my friends that I didn’t like how Forte looked, and that Mage looked great. So they bet on Mage to WPS.
When Mage started his impressive rally before the turn, and then passed Forte, I thought he was a winner. Though it looked hopeless at the 1/8th pole, Forte found his stride. I haven’t seen the chart, but I’ll bet he went the final furlong in 12 seconds…or LESS. Did Saez move too soon with Mage? As for Forte, he’ll have to break better in the KD, and be closer to the leader when they straighten out into the stretch.
How about Angel of Empire? Somebody here was high on him and wrote a couple of times in recent weeks about how he was being overlooked. Was that Matthew? Simon? Looks like the Risen Star Stakes has become pivotal since FG increased the distance.
As a longtime South Floridian, I must acknowledge the miraculous run by Florida Atlantic in the NCAA tournament. Univ of Miami’s journey was almost as amazing an accomplishment. Kudos to finalists SDSU and UConn. I must add that local Nova Southeastern University won the Division II championship.
Three big ones to go!
It was not Matthew W who liked Angel of Empire, admittedly….
Hi Roberta.
Great day of racing yesterday at Gulfstream…
I watched the Florida Derby bunch from the saddling area to the waling ring and loved how Mage looked. I was recording with my phone the horses in the walking ring and Forte’s handler was kind enough to spin the horse in modeling for of us…
but I realized afterward that I had unknowingly stopped recording after the first pass of Mage … the light rain made me clean the phone many times and apparently in one touch I stopped the recording.
Anyway, I saw Forte full of energy in the walking ring and he was all business focusing during warm up as you said….
I thought the race was over for Mage when he broke completely last but Luis Saez was great in driving the chestnut circling the field and at some point he looked to leave Forte way behind in their dash. As we expected Mage made the Forte work a bit harder this time… but the champion is a worthy Derby favorite after his impressive closing kick… he has done everything now.
I hope all the horses come back well from those efforts and keep healthy and happy until D day…!
Nelson, I was looking for you…based on your online photo attached to your comments. Dou you still have a beard? Ha ha!
Yes Roberta…
Nelson, I just watched the replay. Mage’s move was even more stunning than what I could see from the rail. He is a very talented colt. And as close as I was to the start of the race, I didn’t realize his start was as bad as it looked in the replay. He is going to win some big races as he gains experience.
Nelson, your faith in Mage has come to fruition, for a second, you thought he had the Florida Derby. I thought Mage ran the best race especially when he broke slowly. Luis Saez, as you say, should be congratulated on his ride.
Roberta, something that surprised more than anything in the Florida Derby was how well Mr. Ripple performed considering he was so washy, rearing at the start, sweating profusely yet was only 5 lengths from the winner. For me, Forte lost composure, during the post parade, warmup, start I didn’t think he was going to perform as expected. Mage, ran as he looked, had the jockey waited a tad more it would have been much closer.
That should be a good learning experience for Mage AND Saez. As for Mr. Ripple…Who was that masked man? Ha ha!
Thanks Roberta Greevey. Several people were quite concerned when they saw Forte sweating on the track. After the race, Gulfstream showed the interview of all of the connections of Forte (2023 Florid Derby Interview on You Tube). Irad Ortiz, jr., said that this is Forte’s usual behavior on the track and in the walking ring. Don’t forget he has that large efficient heart in his pedigree like his relatives Zenyatta and Blame and he can worked up and is still good to go.
What a personality Forte has, so much talent, and intelligence. What a horse!! Do we ever need a really talented horse like we did 50 years back.
First, congrats to the winners today at America’s prep KD races….Forte and Angel of Empire…..but dang, Forte just received a 98 Beyer for his win today….is this horse about as consistently good or what?
Another 98 Beyer? A believe the last five or six races this horse has run has been measured by Beyer in the 98-100….and another win.
If you want a horse that gives you a 98-100 Beyer every race they run then who better than Forte?
Going forward will this be enough?
PS…congrats to the Aztecs of San Diego State for reaching the title game.
That is the eternal question, John. The answer is in the running. Ha ha
John, I think Forte had a great race and no doubt learned from it.
Some have commented about his behavior in the paddock and in the post parade.
If one has been following Forte as I have and watched his schooling sessions they would know that being up on his toes is normal for him.
When asked in an interview after the race, Todd said that if he was not up before the race that he would be concerned and that after his warm-up gallop he settled down to business.
So far I am impressed by how he seems to be holding his weight and condition and seems to bounce back quickly after a race.
That is something I think is very important in this long run up to the Derby.
You have hit on something else that I think is important…consistency. That too is something I look for as well.
Others have commented on the win margin of being only a length.
Not only is a win a win but in this instance Forte demonstrated that he has more in the tank in the stretch.
Linda King: As a Zenyatta fan, I loved the show that Forte put on in the show ring and on the track. He was prancing, showing off, and playing like his much older cousin, Zenyatta had done on the track.
Forte is related to Zenyatta through his damsire Blame. Blame’s sire, Arch, was Kris S. Zenyatta’s dam was Vertigineux who was sired by Kris S. Blame and Zeynyatta are first cousins. Then Forte and Zenyatta are second cousins.
I have been in love with Forte since I first watch him race at Saratoga (on TV). But I am even more in love with his with his antics.+
Steve look at todays Santa Anita race four….Ultimate Gamble, $1.75 million 2yo purchase….had the one maiden race last August, vs Cave Rock and Practical Move, today he went a mile, 1:36 3/5 he is a huge horse by Medaglia d’Oro out of a Ghostzapper mare….big strides, 2 1/2 lengths gallop out way in front..
Final comment on the day.
Mike Repole’s enthusiasm for the sport and the horses is so refreshing. He makes me smile!
So happy for Dale Romans. Just the nicest, kindest person. He and is team are just awesome. He looks great after his weight loss.
Forte did not disappoint!
Terri Z, you were spot on. It takes a really good horse to win out of the 11 in that deep track. I think Forte proved himself today. Not always find of Irad but have to admit he is probably the best jockey in the US now.
Angel Empire and Cyclone Magic both came out of the race in good shape.
Dale said in an interview after the race that the time off made all the difference in Cyclone Magic.
Hi Lynda, totally agree on Dale. He comes across so genuine and kind in his interviews. And I commented earlier that Cyclone’s coat was much healthier compared to the FOY. He’s on the improve. I just wonder, can he get 1 1/4 miles?
Hello Demolition Derby.
$64,000 question I guess, not only for CM but all these colts.
His pedigree certainly says he can.
If you believe as I do, based on research, the Nearctic was the carrier of the speed gene, he does have speed. I know many like to see inbreeding to Mr Prospector and there has always been some doubt if Into Mischief can consistently sire a speed horse that can go the Derby distance.
I have always been a believer that on any given first Saturday in May that any horse can win the Derby.
There are just so many variables in the Derby, including track and weather conditions, post position, jockey strategy, the break and on and on.
Add too that these colts are raced so lightly now, it is hard for them to get experience racing.
Not much of an answer I guess.
He is, according to Dale, going in the right direction even though he is not 3 yet.
Appreciate the insight Lynda. 1 1/4 is still a grey area imo. Only until you get to 1 1/2 miles is where you can be a little more certain/confident with the distance pedigree.
I don’t think Forte lost any status only winning in the final stretch by just over a length. The pace was fast as in the Derby, maybe a bit faster. He may have been a bit too far back, caught by surprise by the fast pace. I would not overlook the winning time or the come home time, they were well above average. The bottom line is he won and showed again he could fight to the finish.
I agree. I’m a fan of Forte–I wanted him to win today and I want him and Irad to win five weeks from today. I feel more confident after this race than I would have if he’d won easily like Angel of Empire did. He had a lot going against him–a bad post, he was said to be sweating and acting up in the paddock, he had a lot of ground to make up, and at one point he appeared to be going nowhere. But he was able to get it all together, to close with a rush, and to win. I was reminded of all the times I thought Buckpasser was beaten but he always got to the wire first. Forte proved that he’s not intimidated–he can overcome bad situations and he doesn’t give up. He showed the qualities I wanted to see, and I was very pleased with him.
It was the ‘sweating and acting up in the paddock’ that concerned me the most more than the closish win. Normally, Forte is so composed, just something that seemed out of character. Mind you, it may be nothing, wait and see. I feel the competition is catching up with Forte though, makes for a more exciting race come the first Saturday in May.
As I recall, the FOY day temp was in the low 80s, like yesterday. Forte looked great that day in the walking ring and the warmups. To think that he may have been a bit off yesterday yet win the way he did…Wow!
Yes Roberta, Forte in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and the Fountain of Youth appeared, on the internet anyway, ready to explode but in total control. Cool, calm, collected – composed, ready to perform. In the Florida Derby, on the internet, Forte appeared agitated, sweating slightly, wanting things to be over. I hadn’t seen this behavior before from Forte, it may be nothing but at Churchill Downs…
Swing and a miss! lol
Forte is good.
It ain’t over until it’s over.
San Diego St. Aztecs advances to the title game, with a last second shot to beat Florida Atlantic.
This one’s for you Simon.
Angel…OMG!!!
Gosh, you folks are faster than the drf. Thanks Linda!
LOL!
1:49 3/5 is a very good time, for the Arkansas Derby… earlier Hopper won the Oakjawn Mile in 1:37 3/5 so this time is faster…
Forte won like he was galloping…..there’s more…much more in his tank….Arkansas Derby I gotta think Harlocap is going to send, being that Steve also has Red Route One….thought Fort Bragg ran OK, but if you’re going to send, you need to break better than a length behind the field, Joel….can they fit another person on that Oaklawn apron?!…must be 50,000 at least….
Forte won but perhaps it was his least impressive race, I expected more but then again the Florida Derby is a prep to the main event. Mage is improving at the right time. Agree with you on Rosario’s ride but Fort Bragg is definitely not a 10f horse anyway.
Angel of Empire impressed more in the Arkansas Derby win but how good was the field? Next week the Santa Anita Derby, Blue Grass Stakes and Wood Memorial will answer more questions.
I think at this stage, the KD, is wide open. People will play the safe play in Forte. He won’t win, I’m taking that stand. Has it run over a 100 BSF yet?
I think you’re right but there still appears quite a chasm between the top half dozen or so, this will either expand or shrink after next Saturday’s preps.
I think Angel of Empire, and possibly Practical Move, are the horses at this point. Maybe Pletcher didnt’ have Forte quite sharp today, but he still hasn’t progressed from last year, and he got outmoved on the turn. Forte is a winner, but he needs to be faster. Angel of Empire manhandled a deep field and has a great stride. Looks like the most likely Derby winner to me.
I would agree with you that Angel of Empire has had the most impressive win thus far this year, you only have to compare where Mage finished behind Forte in the Fountain of Youth and where Mage finished behind Forte in the Florida Derby to determine which colt is progressing the most as the distances advance to 10f.
Next weekend’s major preps can’t come sooner. I’d have Forte, Practical Move, and Angel of Empire all equal at No. 1 with Tapit Trice and Mage equal at No. 2 or equal No. 4 depending on how you want to count the numbers down.
Just over the moon! Forte, Mage, Cyclone Magic!
Haven’t even seen the race yet (I’m at an event) but the first three were my picks (Forte on top of course!). Will see the race when I get home.
Good race, you will love it !
Forte-nah. Be smart and play others in KD
He had some adversity, still won going away.
I think the field got closer to Forte after the Florida Derby. Makes things more interesting on the first Saturday in May though.
Forte…YES!
Congrats to Wet Paint. Was hoping she would win!
The bet is in. Of course where I started isn’t where I landed.
$100 Win/Place – Dubyuhnell
And some exacta box keys with Dub – bigger with Forte & Cyclone, smaller with Bragg.
I’ll likely bet Rocket Can in the Ark, amount depending on what happens in the Florida.
Let’s get lucky
Hope you played Duby in the KDFW at 99-1….?? Not sure what he finished at, TVG goes up to 99-1 and after that it’s a guess??
Oaklawn is sunshine and fast, and a sea of humanity on the apron!..
Yes, Matthew, it looks a perfect day. Let’s hope the racing is just as good.
I live for days like this. Enjoy!
Has anyone heard whether racing at Hot Springs today will be affected by the tornados that ripped through the state last night? I checked three racing sites and didn’t see a word about it.
Nothing on the web page to indicate racing canceled.
List of scratches posted for each race.
Kolomio has been scratched from the Arkansas Derby.No reason given.
Game Winner has also been scratched from an earlier race with no reason given.
Racing did continue yesterday after the tornado passed.That same tornado did the destruction and damage with 5 deaths so far in Little Rock. Emergency workers are still searching for people trapped in homes and buildings and there are mass power outages.
Oaklawn dodged a bullet, that is for sure.
Thanks Lynda. That whole storm track looked horrific last night and crossed directly over places where we have relatives. Hope it missed your corner of Georgia.
Ms B, thanks
Thank ypu. Most of the front tracked north in to west Tenn, west KY and up to Illinois.
I live in NE GA.
Hope your relatives are safe and no damage!
Yes, we think so.
I heard they’re expecting fast.
For the future wager, Churchill Downs lists Baffert as being the trainer for National Treasure. Ha ha ha!
Bill Dawson…Best of luck for your knee surgery!
Thank you Roberta, I appreciate your support.
Be sure you have a patient helper for the first few days afterwards. I did that for my brother for both his knee surgeries and he really needed it!
Thanks Ms. Blacktype, I got that covered.
Good luck with your surgery Bill. My dad is getting a knee replacement on the 24th, so I’m especially empathetic to anyone dealing with mobility issues these days.
Davids, I’ve been real busy this week and just finally had a chance to look here. I saw your message from a few days ago asking if I could read Morse code. I can’t. Ha ha!
We’re going to try to get out to Gulfstream early. It’s a beautiful day. I think it’s beautiful in Hot Springs, also. I’m looking for Forte to run great from that post just like Big Brown and Barbaro before him. I like Mage to be second. Rocket Can in Arkansas.
Good luck, Roberta. I just started watching, 4:30 am here, it’s a fantastic card just wish I was there. Gulfstream looks a perfect day for racing. Have a great time and win.
Good choices, Roberta. I really like Forte and Rocket Can, and I wish them well. In Florida I would pick Forte, Dubyanell, and Cyclone Mischief, and in Arkansas I would say Rocket Can, Red Route One, and Angel of Empire. But whatever happens, it will be exciting, and I’m really looking forward to both races.
Thanks, Davids and Jiffy. Oh my!…I thought my phone was fully charged. But it’s very low. This morning I was checking Florida Derby history and found that in the last 20+ years, there have been only three odds-on favorites in the race. Greatest Honour, Mohaymen, and Union Rags. No wins, no seconds. There were several even-money favorites, and none of them won. I hope Forte overcomes the curse. If not, I’d love to see Mage win. He didn’t disgrace himself in the FOY despite the horrible start. He’s only raced TWICE!
Great crowd here. Good energy at the rail and around the walking ring. Getting close to the feature of all features at GP. Have fun everyone!
Interesting, Roberta, that could be an omen. I’m intrigued to see how Fort Bragg runs in the Florida Derby and I agree with you and Nelson that Mage is a real danger. Best of luck.
WOW. I feel like I might have solved the Florida Derby mystery.
Go to Cyclone Mischief’s Twitter page and scroll down his feed to find the video of him 1) Schooling today 2) Schooling March 3rd. (you just need to scroll down further).
Look at the difference in his coat. It was maybe a B- then. It’s an A+ today. That tells me he’s doing a lot better now than in the Fountain of Youth.
Couple that with his rebound in his Beyer cycle the last three, 90>63>89, I have to believe he’s going to peak in this race.
I can’t ignore these two puzzle pieces. He’s the play for me. Win/Place on Cyclone + a backup/box with Forte.
Thanks for the information, Demolition Derby. I’ll take particular interest of Cyclone Mischief’s condition prior to the start of the Florida Derby.
Tornado warning Oaklawn Park.
Severe weather outbreak in Arkansas.
Today, 3-31, Hit Show breezed 5 furlongs in 59.40 (6/19) at Keenland for Brad Cox. It appears Hit Show is right on schedule for a big showing in the Wood Momorial on April 8th. However, all eyes will be on the Florida Derby and Arkansas Derby coming up on Saturday. I like Two Eagles River in the Arkansas Derby, and it’s Forte’s race to lose in the Florida Derby.
Safe trips to all.
Very possible that three horses from Japan will be running in the Derby depending of course on how Mandarin Hero performs in the Santa Anita Derby.
In addition to Derma Sotagake who won the UAE Derby, Continuar who placed 3rd in the UAE Derby is set to run in the Kentucky Derby.
Continuar is trained by the very famous and well regarded Yoshito Yahagi.
Continuar is by Drefong out of Pan de Ring (King Kamehameha). Pan de Ring is out of Fusaichi Pandora who was the dam of Almond Eye. Pan de Ring’s damsire was Sunday Silence.
Will any of the three be a threat to American horses in the Kentucky Derby?
That I do not know but will say this.
Japan is serious about winning more and more races on the International scene. They can no longer be dismissed.
Their horses are impeccably bred for speed and stamina as well as durability and sustainability.
They race their horses beyond 3 and do not shuttle them off to stud or as broodmares before their full potential is developed.
The pedigrees are very diverse and Japan is proving that highly successful race horses can win on both turf and dirt.
As someone who appreciates a well bred horse and a foundation breeding program that produces results without the deep, multi-generational inbreeding , I am fascinated by what Japan is doing.
Japan’s program is the way Thoroughbreds use to be bred and raced in the United States until the greed for the need for speed mentality seized the sport.
Linda King–
Thanks for your pedigree analysis and thoughts on the possible Japanese contestants for the Kentucky Derby.
If Forte wins from the outside post in the Florida Derby, he is a freak. And only champions have won from the outside at Gulfstream at 1 1/8 miles on the dirt.
I am going to the Florida Derby tomorrow. Best of luck.
Agree about Forte.
Hope you have fun day on Saturday and good luck!
Thanks for good luck and hope all is well at Oaklawn.
They’re a threat to American horses trying to get into the Kentucky Derby ….
Matthew W:
Most of the Japanese horses are descendants of American bred horses.
There is no restriction on what country of origin horses are who enter the Kentucky Derby. It’s like America itself that welcomes individuals from all over planet Earth.
I don’t recall any recent complaints about US bred horses doing well at Royal Ascot.
P.S. the reason the Queen’s Plate in Canada is ungraded because only Canadian bred horses are allowed to compete. When the entrance requirements are restricted, stakes lose their graded status.
Linda King posed the question “Are they a threat to US horses, in the Kentucky Derby?” I answered, is all ….
Terri: Good post, much the bedt!
much the best!
Terri, very true. In researching the pedigrees of the horses from Japan, many do go back to American bred horses who were very successful on the race track.
Watch a brief video of Mandrin Hero arriving at Santa Anita this morning. He had been in quarantine at LAX for several days.
Beautiful, colt, carrying good weight, nice walk.
I can see both Shangai Bobby and Sunday Silence in him.
Food for thought…
Forte ($110K), in his wins, has beaten Steve’s #13,14,17,20.
Fort Bragg ($700K), in his wins, has beaten Steve’s #2,5.
Forte beat Cave Rock… and National Treasure…..and Blazing Sevens. …..
I should have phrased my comment differently. Wasn’t knocking Forte. I’m trying to figure out how do you not include Fort Bragg in the top 20 when he’s won races where he finished ahead of the #2 and #5 ranked horses above?
@David, he finished 1st ahead of Practical but was DQ’d, placed 2nd. I’ll give you half points for the call out lol. 🙂
I’m hopeful Fort Bragg does well, from the 10 hole….I’m betting him wps!…I expect his ML to come up to around 10-1….
Nice, good luck!
Point taken Demolition Derby, but I was giving Practical Move the nod over Fort Bragg in the DQ. We’ll share the spoils. Ha ha
Hopefully, after the Florida Derby, Fort Bragg will be in the top 10 and in the line up for the Kentucky Derby.
I don’t think Fort Bragg has ever beaten Practical Move, but he has beaten Reincarnate though. Excitement builds.
Mendelssohns March is somehow in the final derby pool. will he even run in a prep race?
Blue Grass next
I see he’s a half brother to Mr. Big News, who ran third in Authentic’s Derby win in 2020. I had completely forgotten about that horse!
I burst out laughing when I saw the Derby Futures Pool 6 odds on Two Eagles River. Would you believe he’s currently listed at 13-1. Keep in mind he closed at 270-1 in Derby Futures Pool 5, which I jumped all over in a $40.00 win bet, and boxed him with Raise Cain (66-1) in a $20.00 exacta wager. I figured his odds would drop in Pool 6, but from 270-1 to 13-1 is hard to fathom. Evidently, the word is finally getting out that Two Eagles River could be something special moving forward.
He’s listed at 10-1 in the Arkansas Derby, but I look for single digit odds at post time.
Hi Steve, any thoughts on Fort Bragg’s workout on March 26, 2/59? You didn’t mention anything above, but I was curious your take on the rider pulling back hard on the reigns at the wire. That was the part I didn’t get.
We are getting closer and closer. I’ve been a little out of the loop, so having to to some catching up. Derby Ranking is the best place to do that. I get a feel for what the spring action as been. Thanks for continuing to do this, Steve! It would be Derby without Derby Rankings by Steve Haskin. 🙂
There is one very important thing to remember about the Florida Derby. At 1 1/8 mile, on the dirt, it is VERY difficult to win from an outside post; the turn comes up very quickly and it takes a talented horse to win from the outside. Therefore, if Forte wins from Post 11, he is a FREAK. Other horses who won from the outside posts include Big Brown (FL Derby) and Gun Runner (Pegasus); both races are 1 1/8 miles.
I did not see a comment as I know you like Disarm as he finished nicely in the Lousiana Derby considering Kingsbarn crawled and they all sat back and watched for which in this game you get tired of jockeys and trainers playing the wait and see game constantly. It bothers me when someone does not say the heck with it and go after him on the backstretch. Just thoughts or maybe I am blind and to naieve. In my analysis of the race, the horses that come up for me in handicapping style and Steve does not mention the other Asmussen Grey Shopper’s revenge who flattened out and was very, very, rank and when Santana Jr. went to pull him out in the stretch he bumped with Colagistro (Cherie Deveux) horse and it took his already depleting energy from his rankness and Santana Jr. trying to get him settled. This horse has talent, will be interested to see if Steve brings him back in the Bluegrass or waits for the Preakness on this one.
My spidey senses are tingling after watching Fort Bragg’s workout on March 26.
I excuse the fade last out after pulling so hard for so long off the 2.5 month layoff.
Warrants a deep dive James Cameron style.
And the fade wasn’t so bad, when you consider the winner was drawing off from them all….the field spread out in the stretch, Fort Bragg stayed in the first bunch behind the winner, and he has worked well since I think he will step up from that effort…not saying he will beat Forte but he may give Forte a target in the stretch…
I’m thinking about California horses going 3,000 miles to run in the Florida Derby, Nyquist did and won….Snow Chief won the Florida Derby then went back and won the SA Derby, in a Jim French type maneuver….it’s a rarity, really….you don’t see Florida horses running in the SA Derby either….
I’ll be taking a closer look Friday.
Hopefully, Fort Bragg is totally composed prior to the start of the Florida Derby, it would be fun if he gives Forte a fright or even better… There are a lot of unknown quantities in the Florida Derby so it’s hard to gauge with the ‘better’ colts drawn outside. Builds excitement though and lots of fun.
Steve do you know Bill Spawr? Terrific interview by one of the 4-H writers…his early years, his mentors. His tremendous successes with claimers, some bought very cheap that became big winners… how he treated $5K claimers as if they were gr1 horses and finally his retirement, bittersweet to say the least—Racing loses a monumental talent..
No I dont know him.
I believe Bill Spawr was either trainer or owner of Amazombie, BC Dirt Mile or Dirt Sprint winner.
He bought him for $5K….
For those that haven’t seen the morning line odds on the Arkansas Derby, see below.
1) Bourbon Bash, 15-1
2) Interlock Empire, 20-1
3) Harlocap, 15-1
4) Two Eagles River, 10-1
5) Airtime, 15-1
6) Angel of Empire, 9/2
7) Rocket Can, 4-1
8) Reincarnate, 5/2
9) King Russell, 30-1
10) Red Route One, 3-1
11) Kolomio, 30-1
I’m expecting Tim Yakteen having a good Saturday, Fort Bragg at around 9-1, I think he runs well here, with Forte, the “Two Fort horses”…..at Hot Springs I think Reincarnate is your 3-1 winner!..
I’m warming even more to the idea of Fort Bragg is going to qualify into the Kentucky Derbyby placing or upsetting in the Florida Derby this Saturday with Joel Rosario aboard. Fort Bragg defeated Steve’s No. 5 horse Reincarnate, last November, and favorite for the Arkansas Derby which some are saying is the toughest prep yet. Yes, very intriguing, Matthew.
Fort Bragg will be helped by some withdrawals as well. As for the Arkansas Derby, will Airtime qualify for the Kentucky Derby coming in third or better?
Fort Bragg not only got the right conformation but also hails from the same cross of Flightline… son of Tapit and Indian Charlie not broodmare Sire but as the second damsire.
I am glad to have the opportunity to see him in person this Saturday…
Good for you, Nelson. Weather wise, the day is perfect for racing. Yes, Fort Bragg looks a racy type. Henry Field is a dynamic Australian breeder/entrepreneur who has grown and grown in stature over the past decade. Best of luck.
There seems to be several of us feeling Fort Bragg.
Reading the paragraph of the Keeneland’s Bargain Basement Babies left me also thinking about the breeders who keep and race their own foals in the best tradition of the affluent breeders/owners of a bygone era.
It is common knowledge that, roughly until the mid-eighties, the majority of the Kentucky Derby winners were bred and raced by the rich and aristocrats of the time. But history shows that after Smarty Jones (2004) the homebreds continue to be successful in the Kentucky Derby. Their record is 12 wins in the last 19 years (63%) with the more distinguished names being Smarty Jones, Barbaro, Street Sense, California Chrome and AMERICAN PHAROAH.
Some notable homebreds this year are Arctic Arrogance (Chester Broman & Mary R. Broman), Disarm (Winchell), Hit Show (Gary & Mary West) , Red Route One (Winchell), Wild on Ice (Frank Sumpter); and perhaps the most prominent is Tapit Trice whose breeder, Gainesway, is keeping part-ownership of the big gray. I am not sure if the son of Tapit can be considered a homebred as he brought 1.3-Million-dollar cheque at a September Keeneland yearling sale…
We are accustomed to see great homebreds from global powerhouses like Godolphin and Juddmonte. The latter is about to get an official verdict for its first Derby with Mandaloun; but Godolphin has not won it yet and won’t have any entrant this year… Banishing did just that from the trail by February and the super talented First Mission sems to be late to the party. Many of us thought the Derby spell for Godolphin would have ended with Essential Quality but the son of Tapit ran out of luck quickly after taking two violent blows at the start.
There are some prominent breeders/owners determined to win their first Derby. The list include renown names like Stonestreet, Godolphin, Charles Fipke , Whisper Hill Farm, Chester Broman & Mary Broman, Live Oak, Coolmore, W Bruce Lunsford, Three Chimneys and Winchell with its Gun Runners.
If you count the many small and big breeder/owners in Florida, California, New York and other Thoroughbred States persevering with their homebreds you can then surmise that there will be no shortage of horsemen aspiring to breed and race their own Derby hopefuls.
They enjoy breeding and can live with disappointment but the gratification of eventually creating a masterpiece tend to supersedes the choice of just trying to discover one at public auctions…
Nelson, I think it’s a bit of a stretch calling Tapit Trice a homebred especially as he runs in Whisper Hill’s silks. Moreover, there are so many shared ownerships from sales yearlings etc now, with the breeders keeping a piece, that it doesn’t truly cover what homebreds mean.
Hopefully, Godolphine wins the Kentucky Derby one day with a son of Essential Quality, that would be more than pleasing. It’s hard to believe what the world of horse racing would be without Al Maktoum family’s input.
I agree the definition of homebred is somehow blurred by the breeder keeping ownership. Moreover, Rich Strike who was running for his breeder Calumet was claimed for $30K by RED TR-Racing… the son of Keen Ice did not go through any public auction but was anyway sold by his breeder…
Godolphin and the Japanese (i.e. Yoshida and his brothers) will be knocking on the Derby door for many years to come …
Not to forget that Aidan O’Brian has Auguste Rodin (Deep Impact (Jpn)) lined up to tackle the English Triple Crown this year with high expectations of doing so. Auguste Rodin is the ante-post favorite for the 2,000 Guineas and the Epsom Derby.
Arguably, the most difficult part of the Triple Crown for Auguste Rodin is probably the 2,000 Guineas. Same day as the Kentucky Derby, excitement builds on both sides of the Atlantic come the First Saturday in May. Imagine Japanese sires winning the Epsom Derby and the Kentucky Derby on the same day in 2023.
Very sleepy eyes for me. Lol.
That should be ‘winning the 2,000 Guineas and Kentucky Derby on the same day in 2023.’ Getting too excited. Ha ha
Hi Nelson
In an attempt to find a potential Kentucky Derby contender, I utilize four main criterion, which are as follows;
1) Does colt’s sire line lead directly to Mr. Prospector?
2) Is the colt homebred?
3) Is he a likely carrier of the large-heart gene?
4) Is he a result of the Mr. Prospector/Northern Dancer cross? (sire line leading to Mr. Prospector and the broodmare sire line to ND)
Granted, other criterion must be factored in as well, such as past performances, connections, temperment, etc, etc.
Thanks Nelson, your post pointing out the success of homebreds in the Kentucky Derby, should serve as an eye-opener to those that may have missed it.
Thank you Bill…
Homebreds seem to be blessed by all the love and dedication of horsemen who dear to dream big from the very first time they conceive a cross.
Running style and conformation come to mind as well to short-list Derby contenders.
We all have our own formula I am a sucker for family 1x … four (4) of the last five (5) 2-year-old champions descend from La Troienne. It is amazing how the reine de course is still an influencing force in modern breeding…
Nelson, great post!
I would only add two from the past, Secretariat and Carry Back! Sure there are many others.
Thanks Lynda.
As you have read in my post I was focusing on homebred performance since 2004… it was only a subset of the overall stats as I always try to make my post as succinct as possible.
I counted 39 homebreds winning the Derby from 1920 to 1986;
The 1987 – 2003 period was the least prolific to hombebreds with only two landing the garland of Roses (Sea Hero and Grindstone).
Finally, Homebreds show 53 wins during the last 103 years (51%)… seems like there has been one homebred winning the Derby every two years…
It is just another additional curious matchup spicing up the Derby along with the quintessential East vs. West rivalry…
Nelson, thank you for the additional information on hombred Derby winners.
I Don’t Get It looked incredible, on his recent (slow) work, over the SA training track, perhaps a sign they are shipping to NY—He will fetch 25-1 and he can run! $42K purchase by Cloud Computing…..a Dennis O’Neill special..
I anxiously awaited your take on the UAE Derby, one of the most brilliant wins I’ve seen in some time. It seems to me he’s not getting much love, likely as Japan has made no impact on the Kentucky Derby thus far. Also, likely because of his sprint sire. But as you point out, Mind Your Biscuits (always a favorite of mine) has a good deal of stamina influence in his pedigree and you never know which genes will assert themselves in the offspring. Derma Sotogake is definitely the horse to watch for me.
I also appreciated your pedigree notes on Practical Move. I’ve always been a strong proponent of speed over stamina when looking for a horse that can excel at classic distances and Practical Move is definitely bred in that mold. Practical Joke was a favorite of mine; crossed on an Afleet Alex mare, I think this son of Practical Joke may be able to accomplish what his sire could not.
An interesting weekend of racing coming up, for sure!
Japan pools can and have influenced odds, most recently in Dubai, where several Japan entrants came off heavily bet—that helped enable big prices, on some Euro horses, like Broome….with THREE Japan horses on their was to Louisville, including the horse de jour that won in Dubai… I’m thinking you might get a price on local “improvers”…..
One of my friends from Face Book, who writes about horse racing on a on-line publication, said that 12 additional horses were supplemented to the Kentucky Derby. Oh my. Steve Haskin, I don’t know how you do it.
Lol. I saw the list. Nothing exciting.
20s, but it probably should be 6.
I hope that the 3rd generation of Sunday Silence’s progeny are majority of the horses that are added to the eligible entries from Japan. I am so happy that Arthur Hancock III is around to see it.
I am wondering how California Chrome, Animal Kingdom, Caravaggio, and Bricks and Mortar will cross with Sunday Silence horses. Please excuse as I didn’t include the top fillies and mares who were sold to Japan.
Terri, Chrome ‘s progeny in Japan are just this year starting in training.
The Japanese tend to start two year olds much later than we do in the United States.
They want the colts and fillies to become fully socialized in a herd environment and for them to have ample opportunity to devlope good muscle and bone. They are not “hot house flowers” and are out in all kinds of weather.
Chrome’s progeny have done very well in Chile and in other countries.
I tried to find out what bloodlines the broodmares are from but not much success.
I am in a FB group that follows Chrome in Japan and have seen many photos of his foals in Japan.
So hoping they are successful. LOL, would enjoy some crow feathers being spit out from US breeders who turned their nose up at him.
Right now I am totally in love with Equinox. His pedigree has do much diversity in it. Something we rarely see anymore in the United States.
When you got Forte and a bunch of I don’t knows your Derby Dozen turns into 20 LOL.
20s but probably should be 6. Lol
“.– …. . .-. . / .- .-. . / -.– — ..- –..– / .-. — -… . .-. – .- ..–.. / .- .-. . / -.– — ..- / –. — .. -. –. / – — / – …. . / ..-. .-.. — .-. .. -.. .- / -.. . .-. -… -.– ..–..”
Roberta, are able to translate Morse Code?
Ok where’s Bill Dawson? Bill I know you’re high on Two Eagles River so you must be drooling at his 99-1 in KDFW 6!!!? And the pool closes Saturday PRIOR to the two big derby preps, so chances are you’ll get something close to those odds?? Good luck!!
Hi Bruce
I’ve already got a $40.00 win bet on Two Eagles River, at 270-1, in Derby Futures Pool 5. In addition, I boxed him with Raise Cain, at 66-1 in a $20.00 exacta wager. Best case scenario for me, Two Eagles River finishes 1st in the KD, and Raise Cain finishes 2nd.
I would cash for $68,118. I’ll probably pass on any Futures bets in Pool 6. I’ve got knee replacement surgery scheduled for April 3rd, and I’ve got several things that I have to do in the next few days prior to that scheduled surgery.
Good luck to you as well Bruce.
Oops my bad Bill, I forgot that TER was the horse you had the 270-1, so yes, 99-1 is just chump change. LOL
Good luck with your knee surgery, Bill. I hope that all goes well and that you’ll be able to handicap the “big 3” preps while recuperating. Hit Show all the way!
Many thanks Dewey, I appreciate your support. When you mentioned the “big 3” I assume you’re referring to the Wood, Blue Grass and SA Derby. Yes indeed, those 3 three races will make or break the current contenders/pretenders on the Derby trail.
I’m looking forward to this weekend as well, especially the Arkansas Derby, with the most competitive field seen to date, IMO.
Regarding the Florida Derby, it’s Forte’s race to lose. I drew a line through Dubyuhnell’s last race, where he finished 8th in the Sam F. Davis, never really getting involved. If he can replicate the form he disiplayed in the Remsen, I believe he’ll finish in the money and secure enough points to make the Derby starting gate.
Yes indeed, Hit Show all the way!
Good luck Dewey.
Yes Bill, I was refering to the Wood, BG and SAD. I know that you must be anxious to see Hit Show run in the Wood. As for myself, I’m looking forward to the Blue Grass where my top Derby pick, Tapit Trice will run. Improvement is expected and I can’t wait to see him give it his best.
Of course, we have two good races this weekend with the Arkansas Derby and the Florida Derby. I really don’t feel like investing much in these races. Yet, to have a rooting interest, I will bet a $10 exacta box of Reincarnate and Red Route One in the Arkansas Derby. Not much of a price, but I can see these two alone at the wire. For the Florida Derby I’ll bet a $10 exacta box of Forte and Mage. Mage had all kinds of excuses (bad start, lost ground both turns) in the FOY missing 2nd by a length. Our friend, Steve, also expects a much improved effort from Mage.
Bill, best wishes for a successful surgery and a speedy recovery!
Many thanks Lynda, I appreciate your support.
Knee surgery huh! I had both knees replaced between ’13 and ’20. No more pain walking or standing for long periods (bone on bone) but kneeling on fake knees….OUCH!!! Like kneeling on a stone, i find it painful. Good luck with the surgery Bill.
Right now i’m looking at Two Phils and Disarm as part of a Kdy trifecta play, liking these as longshots. Might change in the next month.
Raise Cain intrigues me as well.
Thanks Chiefs Crown, I appreciate your support.
I’ll keep that in mind about kneeling. My doctor didn’t mention that, probably thinking I’ll learn on my own soon enough.
I like Raise Cain as well, along with Two Eagles as my Derby longshots. However, first things first, Two Eagles River has to win or place 2nd in the Arkansas Derby.
Good Luck Chiefs
Hi Steve. Kudos on your exceptional observations as always! 2 things, would you print the THOROGRAPH pattern for Red Route One please and do you think there’s ANY way Victory Formation can work his way into the Derby? Thanks.
Thanks John. 17 1/4, 13 1/4, 6 1/2, 16 1/2, 10 1/2, 6 1/2, 3 3/4
Thank you, Steve, for your insights on Derma Sotogake. He certainly impressed me with the way he won the UAE Derby. He gets his speed from his sire, Mind Your Bisquits, and stamina from his dam sires, Sunday Silence and Tony Bin. All three of these sires (despite their brilliant racing records) were rejected by American and European breeders and ended up in Japan. Derma Sotogake certainly deserves the high ranking on your list. I’ll be following his morning works when he arrives in Louisville.
BTW, there’s a very interesting and informative article by Ray Paulick on his website, the Paulick Report, regarding “Japan’s Rise on the World Racing Stage”. It touches on the Yoshida family and an Italian bloodstock agent named Columbo (I kid you not). It’s a fascinating read. Check it out.
Columbo s/b spelled Colombo.
I have my own history lesson coming up
Thank you, Steve. I’m looking forward to reading it.
Thank you Steve for tackling this challenging Derby Rankings. This is definitely not an easy task this year but you are making it so even I can understand it! At this time of year I know the ” girls ” get overlooked because the “boys” take center stage but I just have to give a shout out about Munnys Gold 3-0 who won at Tampa Bay over the weekend by over 17 lenghts and broke the track record for 7 furlongs in 1:20.09. Her jockey (Irad Ortiz?) just asked her at the top of the stretch to go and she sure did. A really nice filly to watch for in the future.
She looked awesome.
Agreed! That filly ran a bang up race and didn’t look like she’d stop anytime soon. However, I hear she’ll stay sprinting, pointed toward the Eight Belles on the Derby undercard. But, man oh man, she is impressive.
Still plenty of intrigue! Will National Treasure stamp his ticket, in the Bluegrass? Will the Mandella boys bring the speed to the Derby? Can Reincarnate go back to Oaklawn, and redeem himself?…Will Red Route One get up in time?…Will Tapit Trice continue to improve?…Will Forte do what Forte does, and come to Louisville the solid favorite? Will Practical Joke win his fourth route race in a row, going away?…Will Skinner improve enough, in his third race of his form cycle?…Is Hit Show the real deal?…Is there someone “hiding” out there, with a big performance under his belt?..
Matthew, you hit the nail on the head of what Derby intrigue is all about! After the next couple of weeks, the actual race could be a letdown (especially if you don’t win). Depending on what my credit card balance looks like, I may pony up for another $100 bankroll this year. I’ll post my intended bets so others can avoid them.
Ms Blacktype another promising three year old that is flying way under the radar is I Don’t Get It, who looked good running down Mandella’s trial maiden Yellow Brick—himself a talented horse…..bought on the cheap by Cloud Computing—I predict stakes success, for I Don’t Get It..
Funny you should bring that up Matthew, with all the uncertainty this close to the actual running of the Derby it wouldn’t surprise me if a totally forgotten colt wins the race, not so much an outsider just a descent forgotten colt.. Lil E. Tee or Thunder Gulch come to mind.
National Treasure has been working lights out. He could be dangerous
He fits the pattern my brother laid out way back when….he ran well two turns against good horses at TWO….but without any racing this year I don’t know, he IS a good horse, and in his Sept 3rd debut he set a :44 1/5 pace and still won, I bet on a big chestnut that day called Practical Move, in the first race I saw that day, after taking the train to see a horse, now who was that horse I saw that day, ran real good, in t heir marquee race…name slips me he was here and gone in six starts…
Steve do you know if Saez has been taken off of Angel of Empire or did he opt to ride Mage, vs Forte?
Good question, unfortunately I dont know. Angel of Empire has had had a lot of jockeys. Hard to take off a horse you just won a grade 2 stakes on.
Matthew, I saw that Gulfstream has carded 10 stakes for Saturday, 5 of which are graded. Our boy Luis Saez is booked to ride all 14 races on Saturday including Mage in the Florida Derby. Anxious to see Mage run as he had an eventful trip in the FOY.
I think Luis has chosen Tapit Trice for his Derby mount and Todd Pletcher has been quoted as saying that Luis fits Tapit Trice very well.
Javier Castellano may have campaigned to get the ride on Angel of Empire as he is looking for a Derby mount.
Oops! Hadn’t had my coffee yet. Flavien Prat has the mount on Angel of Empire. Curious that Pletcher has used so many jockeys on him. I would guess that Prat would stick with Kingsbarn unless AOE puts up a spectacular win on Saturday. Personally, I think it’s Reincarnate’s race to lose.
I agree about Reincarnate, if he breaks with the leaders I think he wins big…
Well Steve, you certainly dotted your I’s and crossed the T’s this week. How you managed to cover all these horses so comprehensively is a credit to your journalism. After the top three, Forte, Practical Move, Tapit Trice, there appears to be a large chasm, at this stage anyway, to the other contenders. However, this may reverse order over the next couple of weekends.
Arguably, the win by Derma Sotogake in the United Arab Emirates Derby could be a real game changer while upsetting the plans of the top three contenders game plans. Derma Sotogake is a real wild card and possibly a crown making all rolled into one. Can the Derma Sotogake juggernaut be stopped?
Another danger is Cave Rock. He may not be able to collect points to get in the Derby but he can certainly deprive others from getting into the field by denying needed points. More a Blue Whale, than an Elephant in the room, Cave Rock could start engulfing our present three year old stars akin to a black hole on a feeding frenzy. Bad Boy B[o]bby will be taking no prisoners but that’s for another time and place.
Let’s hope the final major preps are replete with spine tingling photo finishes ensuring that the upcoming Kentucky Derby will sparkle brightly on the first Saturday in May and, moreover, allowing Steve Haskin to have a worthy field to dissect while stimulate his little grey cells to predict the winner.
Cave Rock effects Geaux Rocket Ride, in my opinion..makes him a pace chaser, instead of front runner..
Baffert never runs a short horse, so, if Cave Rock makes the Santa Anita Derby there will be some fireworks for sure.
That’s not necessarily true. Taiba was a short horse in the Haskell, just one example. CR also hasn’t worked since the 19th.
Well he better had worked today, cuz rains are coming tonight….
Cave Rock is also nominated for the Lafayette Stakes 7f at Keeneland on April 7 so perhaps they’re going that way for the Preakness. Anyone’s guess.
I’d say Cyberknife’s dream run on the rail that beat Taiba in the Haskell; a nose defeat in track-record time.
Agree! Taiba didn’t like the kickback and fell further back, cane running vs a colt that employed a rail run to victory, in very fast time Taiba got beat but I would not contend he was short ..
Airtime is intriguing. Bred by Gary and Mary West
Sire American Freedom finished ahead of Gunrunner in the travers and haskell.
Jockey Cristian Torres has great stats.
Allowance victory over Shoppers Revenge.
Look forward to seeing if he moves forward.
Agree Streakindash, Airtime’s win over Shopper’s Revenge drew some interest although Shopper’s Revenge did have a bad start. Good Luck.
Thanks for the update especially your insights on Derma Sotogake. I hope the Galt House has a Sushi chef. I would love to know your thoughts on Equinox.
Equinox is more proof the japanese have figured it out and are producing dominating horses. Equinox is starting to look freaky.
I’m thinking Fort Bragg is doing well and they wanted one more week….he’s a good horse!..
Yes Matthew, Fort Bragg switched from the deep track, I presume this is still the case, at Santa Anita to a fast Gulfstream Park could be interesting. If there are a few scratchings it could be really interesting in the Florida Derby.
SA not the deep tiring track surface it was from 2017-2021..
Thanks Matthew, that would better for Cave Rock should he run in the Santa Anita Derby.
I might put up a Forte/Fort Bragg straight exacta, I think they got Fort Bragg’s ML wrong, he’s going to go off closer to 10-1, I thought he ran well, in the San Felipe.
Yes, Matthew, Fort Bragg’s performance in the Florida Derby might have wider ramifications in determining where the best colts are running. Normally, you’d be think that Forte should win in a canter but this year has been full of surprises.
I’m not sure Practical Move wants the 10 furlongs, BUT…. he ran away from a good bunch in the San Felipe, and in his three routes he’s coming away late, and galloping out like a nice thing! If they both continue to win— Forte will be 7/5 and Practical will be 7-1!..
The next two weekend points races will gives us a better understanding of what to expect from these young three olds. As for Forte being bet down to 7/5 in the KD… at that price, I will definitely pass. His barn mate Tapit Trice might be the play.
If the top three win there last preps impressively, like Zanytactics, I’d prefer Tapit Trice depending on post positions. I’m a bit sceptical of Forte at 10f as well as Practical Move especially if Derma Sotogake takes off.
Hi Steve – My 2 KDFW horses killed it over the weekend in the LA Derby. KingsBarns at 43-1 in KDFW5 and Disarm at 45-1,50-1 and 60-1 in KDFW 2,4,5. KingsBarns breaks well out of the gate and is tactical which will help him greatly in the KY Derby. He reminds me a lot of Always Dreaming with his tactical ability. I am so proud of Disarm. He does look to be peaking at the right time and will get pace to run at in the KY Derby. Disarm is tactical enough to sit midpack and Rosario has plenty of time to get him within striking distance before they hit the long CD Stretch. I’m glad that you rewarded KingsBarns and Disarm with lofty rankings of 8 and 7 in your rankings. Hoping one of these brings home the roses and the other hits the board. Who knows, maybe they will run 1-2 like they did in the LA Derby with Disarm running past KB late. Forte is certainly a force and I’m glad I have both KB and Disarm boxed with Forte at big odds in the KDFW. Great analysis Steve, fun times ahead.
Excellent week 10 of the Derby rankings in anticipation of the most relevant month of the trail.
The trivia quiz was very interesting… certainly you don’t need to acquire million dollar horses to get legitimate Derby contenders.
In my eyes the $290K paid for Mage will look like a bargain after the Florida Derby… I totally agree with Steve in that the son of Good Magic should improve a lot this Saturday. The more I watch the Fountain of Youth the more I like Mage to make Forte work a bit more this time… the extra distance suits him
BTW in Mage’s paragraph the trainer should be corrected to Gustavo Delgado … Thanks.
Good luck with Mage in the Florida Derby, Nelson. Hopefully, Forte is forced to run and there’s some dazzle for a change. I’ve found this year’s Derby Trail as lacking lustre so some standout performances on the weekend midget ignite the excitement. Fort Bragg’s appearance in the Florida Derby is intriguing on many levels.
Thanks Davids…
I can understand the perception of a not so brilliant trail so far. Maybe contributing to the dullness is the inconsistency and disappointing performances of horses like Giant Mischief, Cyclone Mischief, Banishing, Instant Coffee, Victory Formation, Blazing Sevens and Dubyuhnell.
However, no one can ask more brilliance from Forte and Practical Move and hopefully, Tapit Trice and Reincarnate will be adding some flare to the trail after this weekend.
It is not sure that any worthy challenger (to the top two) would be emerging after the final stage of the trail though…
It would have been a much better trail with Cave Rock and Arabian Knight fully engaged in it…
Just out of curiosity, which was the Derby trail that inspired the most excitement in your mind?
To me the last most interesting Derby trails were those of 2015, 2019 and 2021 …
Nelson, the most impressive trial would be 2015 with American Pharoah. He moved so beautifully and with such confidence that a Triple Crown winner looked possible. Mind you, those thoughts at one stage during the Kentucky Derby seem to evaporate and that American Pharoah might get beaten, then he extended and wouldn’t be denied – champion racehorse.
During this trial thus far, in my eyes, Practical Move’s win in the San Felipe was the most impressive followed by Forte’s win in the Fountain of Youth and Tapit Trice’s win in the Tampa Bay Derby. They look the 3 outstanding colts at this stage but the major preps will either confirm this or throw a spanner in that thanking.
Fixed. Thanks
Coming up with a 20-horse Derby Rankings was a labor of love for us, Steve. Thanks very much. I also was very impressed with Derma Sotogake (my #6 horse) and thought so highly of Kingsbarns I have him at #4. I considered putting him as high as #3 but kept Reincarnate (who I’m smitten with) in that spot, even though he only has 15 points.
Glad too, that you provided a deeper look at Disarm’s performance. I wasn’t aware who fast he ran that last 3/16s until you wrote about it.
The Road to the Derby is getting interesting now!
Best thing about Monday is reading you new insights & updates. I believe Brad Cox knew all along Verifying & Hit Show were going to be his main contenders just by the way he has shipped & spotted them in their races. We are about to find out how good they are….
Thanks Jerry.
I too, was impressed by Two Phil’s, the question being has he improved–as three year olds often do, this time of year. ..of was it the surface? Methinks he is a nust-include, and he will probably be a price—he may be 2023’s wiseguy horse, he passed a pretty nice colt impressively!..
Steve Haskin-
Thanks for the pedigree analysis for Derma Sotogake. Anytime Hail to Reason and Dike/Herbager appear in bloodlines, that’s usually a good thing for distance racing. In case anyone is interested, the translation for “Sotogake” to English is a manuever on offense in sumo wrestling to take down the opponent. If done successfully, the opponent is thrown to the mat with a loud thud. LOL. Not really into the sport, but that’s what I read on the internet.
On a different note, do you have any info for Steve Asmussen horses running in the Arkansas Derby April 1? How many? Which ones? Thanks.
7.5 Furlongs
Your information on Derma Sotogake made me giggle quite as well as being informative. In case you haven’t seen the Arkansas Derby field yet, Steve Asmussen has Harlocap post 3. and Red Route One post 10. in the race. Good luck.
There might just be a loud thud at the end of the Kentucky Derby. An omen bet? Lol.
Thanks for the Asmussen horses update. I had hoped he entered Three Chimneys Gun Pilot in the Arkansas race. Been working out steadily since Rebel Stakes and Three Chimneys is usually eager to run well-bred colts. Asmussen must have other plans.
Keeneland has the Lafayette Stakes and Lexington Stakes, both offering $400,000 so they could be other options for Gun Pilot. Nothing to sneeze at there.
Looks Like Gun Pilot is entered in an allowance on undercard on Arkansas Derby Day. Same race as Eyeing Clover. Should be a good one to watch (a pseudo Pat Day Mile prep in my view).
Thanks Armaan, there are many options available for the colts that find 9f+ too demanding at the higher level.
Kingsbarns did not steal the race, it was given to him. Disarm ran a fine race, but he will need to be closer to the pace in a 20-horse field.
The horse did only what he had to do to win the Louisiana Derby. He was having fun out there; just galloping along. One has to throw speed figures out the window when the pacesetter is uncontested; the other horses had no interest in pressing him. I think it would have been a closer race if Disarm hadn’t run into trouble; the other horses just flattened out.
Kingsbarns has the pedigree to run all day long. The tail is inundated with stamina; there is a strong Princequillo influence past the 5x. Princequillo was one of the greatest long-distance runners of all time. He also was an influential broodmare sire; I’m thinking about Secretariat
Kingsbarns has the speed, stamina, and versality to be a major player in the derby. The La. Derby was a nice, long workout for him.
Mary, I was very impressed with Kingsbarns too (have him at #4, above Tapit Trice since I was more impressed with the King). Good to know about all that fine Princequillo blood in his background — I’ll spend some time looking at that when I examine his pedigree tonight.
Look at the tail/female line of Kingsbarns pedigree.
I also like Raise Cain’s pedigree. I am a huge fan of his broodmare sire, Lemon Drop Kid.
Hes as talented as any of them. My only concern is having only 3 starts before the Derby. Only been done twice in over 100 years and both ..Justify and
Big brown.. came among in bad crops that they towered over.
Thank you for your response, Mr. Haskin. Kingsbarns is a January foal and his first two starts were impressive. He may not win the Kentucky Derby, but if he comes out of it in good order, Mr. Pletcher will likely point him to the Belmont. Nevertheless, I’ll place a win wager on him and thereafter have a mint julep or two.
Disarm’s 2nd place finish in the Louisiana Derby, compliments Two Eagles River, who beat Disarm by 4 open lengths in their last out race at Oaklawn Park. I’m all in on Two Eagles River in the Arkansas Derby, regardless of the odds.
Good luck Mary.
Good luck to you too, Bill. I like Two Eagles River and his pedigree; I hope he wins
Hit show at number 4. It will be 56 days between races for him. Didn’t work out so good for instant coffee.
Also the pace in the LA derby has received a lot of talk, but it seems to me the best horse, and the best prepared horse won. All the other trainers and jocks were really no match for the winning connections, imo.
It will be hard to leave out Two Eagles River and Airtime out of the exotics. Looking forward to see how they run.
Ft bragg at 5-1. lol
Looking forward to the races and your rankings next week.
Streakindash, I agree with you. The best horse won the La. Derby.
Two Phil’s jumped right to the top of my Derby rankings after the Jeff Ruby. 101 Beyer and has the perfect pedigree for the KY Derby. Is the one to beat right now IMO.
That was a huge performance. We just dont know if he can duplicate it on dirt. We know he handles dirt very well. But he hasnt done anything like this.
Do we have another Animal Kingdom on our hands?
Hi Steve
I see you added 5 more horses to your Derby Rankings this week, for a total of 20 promising prospects moving forward.
I was delighted to see my sleeper horse, Two Eagles River, land at #19. He closed at 270-1 in Derby Futures Pool 5, which I found hard to believe. I placed a $40.00 win wager on him, and boxed him with Raise Cain (66-1) in a $20.00 exacta wager.
He’ll make the Derby starting gate with a win, or a 2nd place finish, in the Arkansas Derby. Fingers crossed.
Thank you for providing another informative analysis on your Week 10 Derby Rankings.
BTW, when do you think you’ll start the “Derby Dozen”?
Thanks Steve.
I’ll probably go back to the Derby Dozen after the big preps weed out the pretenders.
Makes sense to me Steve.
Thanks for the reply.
Excellent Steve, thank you. Like the 20 horse list too.