2023 Derby Rankings – Week 11
Well, we have two more 100 pointers in the book and we’re starting to get some clarity. After this week’s three big races everything will come into focus and we will know who the top 20 point getters are and who might still have a chance of getting in through the back door. And we learned last year that even the back door can lead to the winner’s circle. And of course we have to keep a close eye on Japan’s rising sons. ~ Steve Haskin
Derby Rankings: April 3, 2023 – Week 11
By Steve Haskin
Photo courtesy of Adam Coglianese
1—Forte (Todd Pletcher, Violence – Queen Caroline, by Blame)
On paper, the Florida Derby looked like the most uninspiring Derby prep in memory and Forte the most lopsided favorite, even with the 11 post. Well, it didn’t go quite as scripted. Forte, who was a bit wet before the race and antsy in the gate, had to go four-wide into the first turn. He then uncharacteristically let the lightly raced Mage blow by him on the far turn and appeared to be going nowhere, even after swinging 5 to 6-wide turning for home. The upset of the year looked imminent. But we’re not sure what happened after that. Either Forte turned back into Forte and found yet another way to win or Mage, with only two career starts and making a huge early move, simply got tired inside the final sixteenth. Whatever the reason, Forte came steamrolling down the stretch to catch both Mage and Cyclone Mischief. So what did we learn from the Florida Derby? Basically it was that Forte keeps finding new ways to win and is never out of a race even when his engine appears to be conking out on him. On the other hand, for the first time in his career he showed no acceleration on the turn and then was life and death to run down a horse with only two lifetime starts who he had beaten by almost seven lengths in his last start and another horse he had beaten by almost six lengths? A lot will be made of his readjusted Beyer speed figure of 95, but we’ll see what he gets on Thoro-Graph. He may have given his Derby opponents a ray of hope that he can be beaten, but when a proven winning machine like Forte is running the worst race of his career and still pulls out a victory you can never lose confidence in him regardless of the circumstances.
2—Practical Move (Tim Yakteen, Practical Joke – Ack Naughty, by Afleet Alex)
Some may look at his past performances and see that he failed to finish first in his first four starts, chasing a slew of Bob Baffert horses, but the only statistic that is important is that he is undefeated (3-for-3) in two-turn races. He continues to turn in one strong work after another and move forward with every race and work. Having paired up a career-high “3 3/4” in his last two starts one would expect him to improve off that in the Santa Anita Derby. And he will have to assuming Geaux Rocket Ride and Skinner, who chased him home in the San Felipe, will also improve and are sitting on career-high numbers. But most of all he will have to contend with the brilliant Cave Rock, who will be using the Santa Anita Derby as a prep for the Preakness. That is one horse you don’t want to see loose on the lead. And who knows how good the Japanese invader Mandarin Hero is? So this should provide Practical Move with some tough competition and if he passes the test we should have an intriguing East vs. West showdown at Churchill Downs.
3—Tapit Trice (Todd Pletcher, Tapit – Danzatrice, by Dunkirk)
He has a lot to live up to in the Pletcher barn with his two stablemates already passing their final test and cementing their role as major players in the Kentucky Derby. Who knows, if he wins the Blue Grass Stakes impressively and Practical Joke gets beat in the Santa Anita Derby Pletcher could have no worse than three of the top four favorites at Churchill Downs. Right now he has the three favorites in the Future Wager. And let’s see if he has another Bourbonic in the Wood Memorial, with three longshots listed as possible starters. So what are we looking from Tapit Trice in the Blue Grass? First off we need to see him break well and not wind up at the back of the pack again. One race is OK, two becomes a habit, and this long-striding powerhouse of a colt is not the type you want having to weave his way through traffic in a 20-horse Kentucky Derby field. He won’t be facing Classic Car Wash and Classic Legacy. Like Forte he has shown he can beat you in many ways, whether sitting just off the pace, out-dueling you in a furious stretch battle, or coming from far back. He will get a good test in the Blue Grass, having never faced horses of this caliber.
4—Angel of Empire (Brad Cox, Classic Empire – Armony’s Empire, by To Honor and Serve)
I have to admit I totally underestimated this horse and saw nothing to indicate he could run as big a race as he did in the Arkansas Derby. He had never broken an 89 Beyer speed figure and since his career debut he had never run a Brisnet late pace figure over 89. But to show how inconclusive his speed figures have been, he somehow was able to jump from a career-high “9 1/4” Thoro-Graph number in the Smarty Jones Stakes to a “2 1/2” in his Risen Star Stakes victory at 13-1. Even after the Risen Star third-place finisher Two Phil’s ran a monster race in last weekend’s Jeff Ruby Steaks, Angel of Empire still went off as the fourth choice in the Arkansas Derby. This is a horse who has never gotten any respect. A Pennsylvania-bred, he was a $32,000 RNA as a weanling and was snatched out of the Keeneland September yearling sale for a meager $70,000; quite a steal by the Albaugh family. He hasn’t been able to keep a jockey, having five different riders in his six starts. Even Luis Saez, who won the Risen Star on him, stayed in Florida to ride Mage against Forte in the Florida Derby. It was not a shock that he won, especially with a 58-1 shot finishing second, it was the way he won, making a big sweeping run on the far turn, taking the lead after turning for home, and then simply pouring it on with a :12 flat final eighth and :36 3/5 final three-eighths to win by a widening 4 1/4 lengths in 1:49 3/5. The bottom line is that his record on dirt is now five starts with four wins and a second. Maybe this is a really good horse after all.
5—Hit Show (Brad Cox, Candy Ride – Actress, by Tapit)
He tuned up for his likely start in the Wood Memorial with a sharp five-furlong work in :59 2/5 at Keeneland in company with Blue Grass starter Verifying. He hasn’t run in two months, but is coming off a very strong race in the 1 1/8-mile Withers Stakes, where he ran a career-high Thoro-Graph number of “2” over a deep and tiring track, so it certainly made sense to give him some time to recover from that race, especially going that far so early in the year. There is a long range forecast of a possible shower for Saturday and he has never run on an off track, but he should have no trouble handling it. Todd Pletcher could run his highly touted maiden Dreamlike, a $975,000 yearling purchase who has finished second in both his starts, and two other horses. With the hard-nosed Arctic Arrogance and Slip Mahoney in there this shouldn’t be quite as easy as his Withers score. He is going to have to run a big race to leap back over his stablemate Angel of Empire in the Rankings, and we have no idea how high his ceiling is based on a single stakes victory in the Withers. But in his three victories he has drawn off and won by open lengths each time. Now let’s see if he can do it again against better horses.
6—Derma Sotogake (Hidetaki Otonashi, Mind Your Biscuits – Neo Universe, by Sunday Silence)
The deeper we’ve gotten into the Derby trail the more pronounced it’s become that we have not had a horse run faster than a “2” on Thoro-Graph. Even the Beyer and Brisnet figures have been uninspiring. Well, we finally have a horse who has broken and “2” and his name is Derma Sotogake, who got a “1 1/2” in the UAE Derby. You knew it was going to be fast when compared to the Dubai World Cup. Derma Sotogake could actually have won that race based on final time. We obviously don’t have the numbers yet from this past weekend, but as of April 3 the fastest 3-year-old on the Derby trail is from Japan. Is this further enlightenment regarding the amazing impact the Japanese have made in international competition or could this be our worst nightmare having a Japanese horse make a mockery of our best 3-year-olds on America’s biggest stage? Perhaps it would be a wake-up call if it does happen. If you’re looking for a horse with a strong foundation, Derma Sotogake has already run twice at a mile, once at 1 1/16 miles, four times at 1 1/8 miles, and once at 1 3/16 miles. And he seems to be getting stronger and faster. He still has to get on a plane and fly here, so let’s see if everything goes according plan.
7—Disarm (Steve Asmussen, Gun Runner – Easy Tap, by Tapit)
As high as I have always been on this horse, actually ranking him in the Top 12 off a seven-furlong maiden victory at 2, there might be one concern. With him being sidelined for 6 1/2 months between his first two starts and last two starts he may need one more start before peaking, especially considering he hasn’t had a fast or contentious pace to run at and hasn’t gotten within 3 1/2 lengths of the winner despite closing in fast fractions. This can be reflected in his speed figures. Although he has improved to a 90 on Beyer and improved to a “5” on Thoro-Graph, he still has quite a bit of improving to do to reach Derby-winning figures. That is where one more start would help in getting within range. He just hasn’t had a chance to win either of his two races. With that said, I still am ranking him high because I believe he is extremely talented and who knows how much he can improve with the right kind pace and setup. Asmussen normally does not work his horses long and fast but he gave him a strong six-furlong work in 1:13 1/5, galloping out a mile before the Louisiana Derby just to put that extra bottom into him. He is already at Churchill Downs and we’ll see if he gets another lung opener before the Kentucky Derby.
8—Kingsbarns (Todd Pletcher, Uncle Mo – Lady Tapit, by Tapit)
With three talented horses likely heading to the Derby having only three lifetime starts I wouldn’t have any idea who to rank higher, but I just can’t bring myself to rank any of them higher than this with so much history against them. I guess I’m still a bit too old school. For now here a little background story on this colt. Mark Toothaker and Tom McCrocklin were friends at Louisiana Tech and have remained close friends ever since. Back then they had to scrape and claw to get $5 for a pack of bologna. Both went into horse racing and when Tom became a trainer and opened a string at Rockingham Park in the mid ‘80s, Mark left his job as assistant to Wayne Lukas to join him as an assistant. In the winter Tom took the better horses to Florida and left the others with Mark. One day he called Mark and said he was staying in Florida and the horses at Rockingham were now Mark’s. Tom eventually got his own place in Ocala and began breaking yearlings and preparing 2-year-olds for the sales while Mark became the Stallion Sales Manager at Spendthrift Farm. In 2021, Tom bought an Uncle Mo yearling for $250,000 with the intention of pinhooking him the following year. It didn’t take him long to realize the colt could be special. His breezes were so phenomenal he had to take him out of the group because he was too much horse for his peers. When Tom put him in the 2-year-old at Gulfstream he turned in a sensational quarter-mile breeze in :20 3/5, and it takes a lot of horse to work that fast at Gulfstream. At the sale, the colt was sold to Spendthrift Farm for $800,000 and named Kingsbarns. After all those years Mark and Tom have been brought together once again and their long journey has them on the threshold of the Kentucky Derby.
9—Two Phil’s (Larry Rivelli, Hard Spun — Mia Torri, by General Quarters)
If his last start wasn’t on a synthetic surface you could make a case for ranking him in the top 3 or 4 based on numbers alone. First on Thoro-Graph he paired up career best “4’s” in the LeComte and Risen Star and then jumped to a “2,” in the Jeff Ruby, equaling the fastest number by a 3-year-old in this country. Not only was his Brisnet speed figure of 107 in the Jeff Ruby the fastest of any 3-year-old, his late pace figure was an excellent 106 and he did it coming off a middle pace figure of 102. That combined figure of 208 again is the highest of any 3-year-old and shows that he has a huge middle move and can sustain it and still come home fast. Remember, it is the final three-eighths in the Derby that is most important, not the final quarter or eighth. If you look at this third- and second-place finishes in the Risen Star and LeComte, he put in huge middle pace figures of 113 and 109 and couldn’t sustain it, getting caught in the final furlong each time. So was it the synthetic surface that allowed him to keep going or is just learning how to pace himself better? With his Jeff Ruby score, he now has a Brisnet Prime Power number ranked second only to Forte. He has won his four races by an average margin of 5 1/2 lengths, on dirt, slop, and synthetic, and has done it from six furlongs to 1 1/8 miles. If he can replicate that big three-eighths of a mile move at Churchill Downs he is going to be very tough in the Derby.
10—Mage (Gustavo Delgado, Good Magic – Puca, by Big Brown)
Here is the second three-race wonder who was bet way down in the Florida Derby and ran a huge race, putting a big scare in Forte after dropping far back and then blowing right by the 1-5 favorite on the far turn with a big sweeping move. He then opened up in the stretch and looked like a sure winner before he either got tired or Forte found another gear and caught him in the final strides. So he improved almost six lengths off his fourth to Forte in the Fountain of Youth Stakes. Can he make another move forward in his fourth career start in a 20-horse field? I have no idea; I’m just along for the ride like everyone else. I do know this horse is for real and has unlimited potential. Ironically it was his broodmare sire Big Brown who became the first horse in 93 years to win the Derby off only three lifetime starts. I know times are changing and I guess I’m going to have to change with them and acknowledge the fact that more and more horses are going to run in the Derby with so few starts and we’re going to have another winner in the near future, which could very well be this year, especially if Geaux Rocket Ride joins Kingsbarns and Mage with a huge race in the Santa Anita Derby. That’s three possible contenders this year with three starts and I have no idea what to do with them. I refused to put Justify on top and look where that got me.
11—Raise Cain (Ben Colebrook, Violence – Lemon Belle, by Lemon Drop Kid)
He most likely will stay at home and run in the Blue Grass Stakes, but Colebrook still has the option of heading back up to New York for the Wood Memorial depending on who shows up where. As of now the Blue Grass looks to be the deeper and tougher of the two with several serious Derby contenders. But he would get to run out of his own barn, so it looks like that is where he is running. Many handicappers dismiss the Gotham because of the pace meltdown, setting it up for three deep closers to finish in the money. While there is no denying that, you still have to remember that he was forced to check while making his big run and he still won the race by 7 1/2 lengths, so he not only crushed all the speed horses who were close to the torrid pace, he also crushed the closers who were rallying from far back. And his Thoro-Graph number for the Gotham was a “2,” which still makes him one of the fastest 3-year-olds in the country. He still is a bit of an unknown considering his Gotham was so powerful and he had never shown that kind of explosiveness before other than his impressive maiden victory going seven furlongs at 2. So his next start will tell us a lot about him.
12—Slip Mahoney (Brad Cox, Arrogate – Got Lucky, by A.P. Indy)
Churchill Downs finally came to its senses and put him in the final Future Wager field. And you still could have gotten him at 99-1. Chad Summers, who owned and trained Derma Sotogake’s sire Mind Your Biscuits, picked out Slip Mahoney along with Joe Hardoon at the Keeneland September yearling sale for $150,000, which from his pedigree alone looks like a steal. But he was on the small side, and the hope was that he would grow, being by the imposing Arrogate out of a good sized mare. When they asked Hill n Dale’s John Sikura about his reserve he said $150,000 because no one seemed to like him, and that’s what they got him for. He was always a feisty little guy, and he sure hasn’t lost that feistiness on the racetrack. Summers said he had a great attitude about himself and possesses the heart of a lion, likening it to a ”Napoleon complex,” which is defined as a “domineering or aggressive attitude perceived as a form of overcompensation for being physically small or short.” We know he likes a good fight and made Tapit Trice run his guts out to beat him, but now that he has learned how to close from off the pace and having to go nine or 10 wide it would be to his benefit not to hook Arctic Arrogance, another scrapper, too early in the Wood Memorial. Every time Summers and Hardoon have seen him they have liked him more and more, and after Saturday don’t be surprised if everyone likes him.
13—Geaux Rocket Ride (Dick Mandella, Candy Ride – Beyond Grace, by Uncle Mo)
We already have the Louisiana Derby winner and the Florida Derby runner-up with only three career starts. Are we going to add this guy after the Santa Anita Derby? Is this year’s muddled Kentucky Derby picture providing us with a look into the future where horses we hardly know and never heard of at the start of the year become overnight Derby contenders? Before we get too enamored with these late-blooming newcomers just remember that only two of them with three lifetime starts, Justify and Big Brown, have won the Derby in over a century, and Justify is the only one who did not race at 2. Also both were extraordinarily talented horses who came along in a poor crop. As for Geaux Rocket Ride, he has shown a professionalism beyond his years and there is no telling how good this colt is. And if we are witnessing the beginning of a new era in racing when it comes to experience, then he would have to be taken very seriously with another big effort in the Santa Anita Derby. If you saw his last six-furlong work in 1:13 and how strong he was after the wire you would have to think he is going tough to beat despite having only two lifetime starts. So we could have three lightly raced horses bucking history and I can’t separate them at all.
14—Skinner (John Shirreffs, Curlin – Winding Way, by Malibu Moon)
With Practical Move and Geaux Rocket Ride getting most of the headlines and the Japanese invader Mandarin Hero also getting a good deal of press, Skinner quietly moves closer to his moment of truth in the Santa Anita Derby. I don’t know if he’s good enough or fast enough to beat these horses, but at least with Cave Rock and Geaux Rocket Ride in there he will get a good pace to run at. Shirreffs knows he has to be sharp to run with these horses and worked him five furlongs in :59 1/5, second fastest of 64 works at the distance, No one wants to lose any of these big Grade 1 preps, but if I were strategizing with a horse like this I wouldn’t bust a gut trying to win it with a mile and a quarter horse when all I need is a second or third to get in the Derby and then let it all loose going a more favorable distance with hopefully a contentious pace. His strength is the final furlong, so if the Santa Anita Derby should fall into his lap then by all means go for it. He may be sharp enough now to win this race, but it’s the next race that he needs to get to.
15—National Treasure (Tim Yakteen, Quality Road – Treasure, by Medaglia d’Oro)
For the third time he worked in company with Reincarnate, going five furlongs in :59 4/5 last week, and for the third time he just got the better of him. He came back on Sunday with a six-furlong work in 1:12 3/5. Despite the minor injury that forced him to miss the San Felipe Stakes he has come back extremely sharp and let’s not forget the company he’s been keeping in his races. He has already shipped to Keeneland for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, finishing a respectable third behind Forte and Cave Rock, so we know he can handle the track and top-class competition, and he should be razor-sharp for his return in Saturday’s Blue Grass Stakes. Remember, his “6 1/4” Thoro-Graph number in his career debut is the slowest number he’s ever run, so unlike most of these horses he has never run a slow race. This could be a hidden treasure
KNOCKING ON THE DOOR
There are too many good horses running this weekend to rank them all, so you’re just going to have to figure this one out for yourself, although I did include a few of them who have been ranked for a while. One horse I would look out for in the Blue Grass is VERIFYING, who was ranked last week and should run big with a better trip than he had in the Rebel Stakes.
This past weekend we saw the emergence of KING RUSSELL, who came off a nose maiden victory to close for second in the Arkansas Derby at 58-1. I must admit I knew little about this horse until I heard Chad Summers, for whom I have tremendous respect and is someone who knows how to recognize a good horse when he sees one, basically guarantee this horse was going to run a monster race on his YouTube handicapping show. I went and watched his races and could see what he was talking about. So it wasn’t a surprise when he came flying late out in the middle of the track to finish second. I don’t believe this was a fluke and that this is a colt to keep an eye on. I just couldn’t find a spot for him in the Rankings, but that could very well change next week.
We also have to acknowledge the big race CYCLONE MISCHIEF ran to be third in the Florida Derby. It’s just a question of whether he can improve going a mile and a quarter. I hated losing REINCARNATE from the Rankings. He did dig in gamely once again and refused to let horses get by him, but that was for third and after having a perfect stalking trip, so I just don’t know where he fits now. He is one who needs to be re-evaluated before deciding if he is ready for the Derby.
If you’re looking for a big Kentucky Derby contender to come out of the Santa Anita Derby, you, and most of all Churchill Downs, could very well come away disappointed if CAVE ROCK, lurking in the shadows, returns even close to the horse we saw last year. You can imagine how Bob Baffert would feel throwing the Derby picture into even more turmoil after being banned from the event and having to give up a good deal of his 3-year-olds. If Cave Rock is the same horse and gets loose on the lead good luck trying to catch him. And after that good luck to the Kentucky Derby winner trying to beat him in the Preakness. He remains sharp while building a foundation, working six furlongs in 1:12 3/5.
CLEAR THE AIR, who has not had the best of trips in his last two races, including a troubled fifth in the Gotham Stakes, will try again in Saturday’s Wood Memorial. The son of Ransom the Moon, a son of Malibu Moon, has plenty of stamina and should appreciate stretching out to two turns for the first time. His third dam is Champion Older Mare Hidden Lake, a three-time Grade 1 winner and earner of almost $1 million, and he is inbred to Hail to Reason through his stamina influence sons Halo and Roberto. He is a May 5 foal, so he should still be improving.
Although ARCTIC ARROGANCE has finished second in his last three starts, two of them in hard-fought stretch battles, he is not one to be overlooked in the Wood Memorial. The son of Frosted is a fighter and might not have cared for the addition of blinkers in the Withers. He has turned in two strong six-furlong works since in 1:12 3/5 and 1:13 1/5 and looks to be sitting on a big race. Those are excellent works over the Belmont training track. If the track does come up wet he has shown he handles it just as well as a fast track. At 99-1 in the Future Wager you should get a run for your money. As of now Todd Pletcher has three possible starters for the Wood, the aforementioned DREAMLIKE, as well as CLASSIC CATCH and CRUPI.
If you’re in a forgiving mood and were a fan of BLAZING SEVENS, you can always throw out his Fountain of Youth debacle and hope you get the same horse who was a Grade 1 winner and one of the top 2-year-olds in the Blue Grass Stakes. He has been turning in sharp works over the deep Payson Park surface, the latest being a half in :48 4/5, and the fact that Chad Brown is giving him another shot makes him an interesting bounce back candidate. Remember, once he started working this year he was moved up to No. 5 in the Rankings. Two potential bombs that bear watching in the Blue Grass are MENDELSSOHNS MARCH and SCOOBIE QUANDO. Kenny McPeek has always been high on the former, who is just coming into his own, and we’ll see if Ben Colebook runs Scoobie Quando against Raise Cain after his fast-closing second in the John Battaglia.
The enigmatic CONFIDENCE GAME is not listed as a probable or possible starter for the Blue Grass, so who knows what’s going on with him. People still have faith in him betting him down to 25-1 in the Future Wager in spite of his lack of activity and possibly going into the Kentucky Derby without a race since February 25. If he should pop up in the Blue Grass at least we’ll have some idea what to do with him.
INSTANT COFFEE probably deserves another chance after his disappointing performance in the Louisiana Derby. He might have been short coming off a two-month layoff and was victimized by the extremely slow pace set by the winner, being so far back early. Brad Cox said he is going to see how he trains before deciding whether or not run him in the Lexington Stakes to pick up some important points.
We don’t know how MANDARIN HERO will run in the Santa Anita Derby, but we do know the Japanese are sending two other horses for the Derby, both of them proven in top-class company. In addition to Derma Sotogake they will also be represented by CONTINUAR, a son of Drefong. Yes, he was third, beaten 10 lengths by Derma Sotogake in the UAE Derby, but he did win the one-mile Cattleya Stakes, which is part of the Road to the Kentucky Derby series, and he was beaten only a nose by Derma Sotogake last November going 1 1/8 miles and finished only three-quarters of a length behind him in the Saudi Derby. Both horses will leave Dubai this week and fly to Chicago, where they will be in quarantine before vanning to Churchill Downs on April 8.
I searched and searched but could not find the race fractions for the UAE Derby. Anyone know where they exist?
Or since Derma led the whole way, his individual splits would work. Thanks I’m advance.
Also, I’m curious how horses performed next race after setting a track record. I know Derma didn’t quite break it, but wondering if the numbers are heavily against another good race next out.
this horsefan is just glad to someone really cares to keep publishing derby stuff for true horse players look forward to what you have to say about this crazy upcoming 2023 derby-thanks.
Thanks very much Shannon.
I don’t understand why there’s a discussion about whether Mandarin Hero has been nominated for the Triple Crown. He was nominated on or before the January 28 deadline. A late nomination was not and is not necessary.
Roberta, I had a giggle about that as well. Lol. The Blood-Horse even has the list in their Triple Crown menu items.
The only official Derby points leaderboard is the one posted on the Kentucky Derby website.
As of this morning and the update from yesterday race results,the bubble is 45 points.
There are currently 4 horses that have 45 points; Reincarnate, Jaces Road and Skinner. Cyclone Mischief is the 4th horse now in 21st position because unrestricted stakes winning is the tie breaker and Continaur).
Mandarin Hero is not on the list because he has not yet been nominated to the Triple Crown Races. I do not know what the final nomination date is for the Derby. I only know that for the Oaks it is April 15th.
The two Japanese horses who are nominated are Derma Sotogake and Continuar (30 points). Note, KD website is showing 30 points for Continuar and Road to Japan is showing 40. Regardless, Continuar will be the 20th horse. Should it still be possible for Mandarin Hero to be nominated, Cyclone Mischief, Major Dude (40), King Russell (40) and Disarm (40) would all have to defect or dome combination of these 4 and horses higher on the leaderboard. Mandarin Hero is the lowest in 40 point category because his winnings is lower than the other 3.
I did not realize until this morning that MH had not been nominated.
The other horse from Japan, Dura Erede (40 points), is not on nominations list.
If my memory serves me correctly it was Thursday before the Derby that Rich Strike earned a gate and late nomination fees had to be paid.
The field for the Lexington has not been set. Probables are Victory Formation, Larry, Curly and Moe; Confidence Game, and Midnight Rising. Confidence Game is already in at 57 points.
My humble opinion on the three preps on Saturday:
I did not see anything that would prompt me to drop Forte, Angel of Empire, Kingsbarn and Derma Sotogake from my most likely to win list. Should and that is a doubtful should, Mandrian Hero get in, will add him to the list. Also serious attention will be given to Vanishing and Skinner.
I saw a couple of dents in the armour for Practical Move and Triple Trice that makes both vulnerable. Tapit Trice is still somewhat green, he was still turning his head to the right and a bit slow getting started.
As to Practical Joke, yes he ran a good race. However as they crossed the finish line, Mandarin Hero’s leap took him past Practical Joke. Both PJ and TT had to work for their wins.
Side notes: Mandrian Hero’s jockey, Kazushi Kimura was the 2019 Apprentice Jockey Eclipse Award winner. He divides his time between Canada and Japan and has been successful.
J Paul Reddam is dispersing his broodmare band, he owns around a 100 horses. This will be a blow to California racing. If you recall Mr Reddam owned I’ll Have Another and Nyquist.
Good article on Blood Horse today about the points.
Congratulations to all the winners (horses and bettors).
Beautiful day here after 36 hours of heavy rain.
Between Jace’s Road, Reincarnate and Skinner I’m on Skinner seven days a week and twice on Sunday! Only has a quarter mile kick so Victor needs to get him covered and WAIT…..does have a torrid move! As for Practical Move—I did not think Tim had him cranked up, his final work was practically a breeze—I think he is one of the main contenders….but I also like “The Big Grey”….he keeps on trucking. ..Mage is intriguing because he has speed, if and when he ever comes out with the leaders LOOK OUT! Forte just wins, baby! Forte and Practical Move are legit favorites, 2023 reminds me of 2012, where you have ten horses with legit shots—HEY! I hit big, in 2012! But I was on the winner all along, this year I need to look and watch–and hope Skinner draws in!..
Matthew W, I have not discounted Mage. He is still on my little list.
Was just delighted for Mr Sheriff’s and Victor and Skinner.
Gallop outs are overrated!
Watch the gallop outs of the 2022 & 2023 Jeff Ruby.
#RichStrike
#TwoPhil’s (foreshadowing)
Just checked the site and they have Mandrian Hero at 23 so even without the Lexington somebody has to drop out for him to get in. What I did like about all 3 of yesterday’s races were how tight the finishes were in all 3 at the wire.
We still have a ways to go but it looks like the Derby is going to be a very competitive race. Here is hoping for another Affirmed/Alydar Triple Crown year. The sport needs it. The “right” kind of drama so to speak.
Hoping the Reddam broodmares go to another person as dedicated to the sport. Are any of them in foal right now do you know? It will be interesting regardless to see where they end up.
I also noticed Tapit Trice looking around until it counted. Not that many races under his girth. Then again, none of them race as much as they used to getting to the Derby.
Laura, I do not know the status of Mr Reddam’s broodmares. It does not sound like he is getting totally out of racing, but rather the breeding side.
It is probably going to have an impact on Doug O’Neil. Doug trains most of not all of Mr Reddam’s horses.
Not meaning to spread rumors but if the Wests continue with trainers based on the East Coast, that will also hurt California Racing. Their breeding operation is in Kentucky.
Hope the mares land in a soft place. So often they do not.
Am in agreement with you about the preps yesterday having tight finishes. I am sure all of the horses that won or placed yesterday got a lot out of the races….and that is what they needed.
I am all for the “right kind of drama”!
Good stuff Lynda. My only question is there still time available, if need be, to nominate Mandarin Hero to the KD with hope he might get in thru scratches?
I believe that the TP fees go up ten fold in March, let alone in April, or does it close off.
For a horse that traveled all the way from Japan to the US and to put up a 100 Beyer in his first race in this hemisphere and to just lose by a head is truly amazing.
Hey John,
Yes last year the connections for Rich Strike had to pay the fee, I believe in May.
Not sure of amount. I will try to find out.
Yes, Mandarin Hero did run a great race. I thought he had it, so close.
He arrived in the US on March 30, spent 4 days in quarantine; had one trip around the track and had one gallop a couple of daus later (47/47 per Equibase).
I have read that the Japanese horses travel very well.
Mandarin Hero’s trainer said that he did all of his training before shipping and was on schedule with the look around and the gallop.
Something else about their training methods is they do a lot of ground work, like dressage.
If you recall Crown Pride did a lot ground work in a back paddock before the Derby.
200,000 after March 27 plus 25,000 entry fee and 25,000 starting fee plus minimum Jockey fee 500.
150,000 for Preakness and 50,000 for Belmont.
It will be a shame if Cyclone Mischief doesn’t make it in. Easily in top 15 contenders.
It is probably a good strategy this year for the Japanese horses to be at Churchill Downs much earlier than prior entrants were, to acclimate and train. To me, the most impressive winner of a prep race is Derma Sotogake UAE Derby win. It seems that there is not much separation in speed ratings from US-based 3 year olds this year. It seems pretty competitive with more than a few with a serious shot to win. Now, looking forward to seeing who is training well…
Fair assessment, biggy312. Now comes the real guesswork, which one of say the top 6 is going to improve the most over the next 4 weeks. Thinking caps on!! Ha ha
Faiza ran a banger of a race in the SA Oaks, which stamps her a top 3 year old filly in the country. She won’t be participating at the Kentucky Oaks as she is trained by baffert. Owner is extremely happy, and the KD oaks will miss out on a special filly.
Yep.
It’s a real shame Faiza can’t run in the Kentucky Oaks, she’d waltz in.
Was chatting with Jimmy the Hat just outside the walking ring when Mandarin Hero walked by a let out huge snort. The horse was pretty pissed off about something. I liked how he cleared his lungs and thought he was ready for a big effort. Very impressive.
Tom, was that Mandarin Hero that the handlers had to keep turning around?
I saw that, thought it was him but the camera angle was too tar back for me to be sure.
Oh I’m not sure. Mandarin Hero startled me and that’s all I recall.
I’m pretty sure Forte will remain the favorite, he won the most Gr. 1’s and money.
Thoughts about yesterday’s KD prep races…
The BG and SA Derby ran to what I just about expected with both Tapit Trice and Verifying outclassing their competition while Practical Move holding off a determined Mandarin Hero, who might have been the best horse yesterday but is on the outside the bubble looking in thto start in the KD. Then you had the longshot winning the Wood.
If MH doesn’t get into the KD then the onus is on the horse’s connections for not bringing MH earlier to the US for some point awarding prep races.
Yet, congrats goes to TT and PM for their wins.
PM’s 100 Beyer is his second triple B this year.
That said, this year’s KD is shaping up to anyone’s guess let alone who will be the favorite. Many horses seem to be clustered together in the mid to upper 90’s Beyer range with no really ‘super’ horse breaking thru. At least not as yet.
I didn’t expect Practical Move to win yesterday, and in yhe stretch I thought he would get third….Tim took a bit of edge off him with that last work, if he is looking good in coming weeks—two works out— I like his chances, he’s big and sturdy, can go thru a hole and can take a bump—and should be in front of most, at the quarter pole….
Agree that Practical Move is downright a bull dog with talent; he is my #1, but I do like the work Sherriff has done with Skinner- horse would have to overcome his running style and potential lack of pace in KD but he is developing fast. That SA derby pace was fast.
Skinner is not large— medium sized with a big bum! Kicks hard BUT…unlike most dirt horses his top end kick is only a quarter mile long then he lose momentum….Victor HAS to get him covered and WAIT for top of stretch— just pick them off slowly, around the turn, and whamo! Let him kick down that quarter mile homestretch, he has a big turn of foot….
At this stage, the six that seem more likely to be part of the finish of the Derby are, going down Steve’s list: Forte, Practical Move, Tapit Trice, Angel of Empire, Mage, and Skinner with Derma Sotogake a possible wild card.
Nothing surprising there. The post positions will separate the pack in favorable to less favorable.
Beyer employees and professional handicappers should not be allowed to be the official timers of any horse race, they are not the judge and jury of race horses. The track should hire a non biased third party with proven technical competence, when the time is disputed, before the time is published. Time meaning final, fractional or both. Randy Moss, Greg Milkowski and David Aragona act like their own horse racing.
Well, Steve should have a lot to say in the next rankings. The Beyers came up almost level for the Blue Grass and Santa Anita Derby. Practical Move and Mandarin Hero — I keep wanting to type Mandarin ORANGE — paired up with 100 each. In the Blue Grass, Tapit Trice and Verifying both got 99s. Top Beyers in the Wood were 93 for the one, two, three horses (Lord Miles, Hit Show, Dreamlike). What should really be interesting are the Thoro-Graph figs once they’re known.
I did a top 20 ranking of the horses with the most points and found the following horses on the outside looking in:
Skinner, Mandarin Hero, Jace’s Road, Disarm, Dura Erede, Red Route One and Instant Coffee. I just hope Skinner and Mandarin Hero can make the cut. They deserve it.
I watched those Mandarin Hero races….bullring tracks, photo wins….second string, we were told…..and he comes over and is inches away from America’s top Beyer 3yo? No way….Dominating Dubai, dominating Breeders Cup, dominating Saudi Cup….all of the sudden, and I wonder about what a little man with his little $16k claimer was caught saying, on federal wiretap: ” Its working TOO good, I’m winning TOO much”…..Racing WANTS the far east wagering pools, so there won’t be nary a whisper—from the place where they slaughtered Ferdinand for dog food, they are winning and winning and their B-LEAGUE horse nearly beats the top US Beyer colt—My gut says uh-uh…..
I say he almost won fair and square.
And I hope you’re right..
Then why did you bring up that he must have been cheating? I think it says more about Practical Move’s limits than it does about possible drug cheating by Mandarin Hero. I thought in some ways it was a weak race, 3 on the finish line, small field with several no hopers, rail trips, slow last fraction. The main positive was the fractional and final times on a slowish track, were better than all other preps and very good. But that’s it. I don’t know if that means the most, in how the Derby plays out. I believe the horses winning the slower preps can also go faster; Forte, Angel of Empire, Tapit Trice, and even Kingsbarns. They tend to run at a slower pace in eastern racing, but they finish faster.
First re Ferdinand, the outcry over that happening caused a change in the approach in Japan to racehorses and their treatment when retired. Second, the conception of NAR as the second string is not entirely accurate. In Japan, turf racing is emphasized and tends to have bigger purses but they do have dirt races which are run primarily on the NAR circuit. If your horse is conformed for dirt and better running on it, you’re going to probably run on the NAR circuit. It doesn’t mean the horse is second string.
PM was on top of a very fast pace at Santa Anita, and gutted out a tough win against quality horses closing into that fast pace. The pace of the race hurt his normal kick and too me was even more impressive despite potentially being short on works thru the year and disadvantage with the pace scenario versus his main rivals
Had a perfect rail trip, is going to have trouble if he has to run outside.
Disgusting post. Xenophobic as well. And you are a fan of Baffert…Maybe the West coast 3 year olds aren’t that special or maybe the Japanese take EXCELLENT care of their horses, treating them much better than the US trainers who keep their horses stalled 99% of the time. I love your columns Steve, but I won’t be coming back after seeing the crap that’s allowed.
Matthew W,
I find your comment to be insulting to the Japanese and horse racing in Japan amd honestly I am surprised you made such a comment. Seems out of character for you.
No that’s me…..I question things …didn’t say anybody is cheating, did anybody question Jason Servis, when he was winning 35%? I mentioned it and got flack for it, too, and they still cannot detect the stuff, it took Fed wire taps….otherwise he’s still a wise old time trainer with quirky training methods….call me what pleases you but I stand by my words, it’s too sudden….
Dozens of bloggers and bettors questioned Jason Servis repeatedly for years on all the main horse racing blogs, and at the track, with all kinds of statistics.
My top 12, in order:
Forte
Angel of Empire
Tapit Trice
Two Phil’s
Derma Sotogake
Practical Move
Kingsbarns
Hit Show
Mage
Verifying
Mandarin Hero
Skinner
Just wondering when the deadline to register for the Lexington is. I was wondering if some of those horses that ran the last weekend in March like Disarm and Major Dude could enter. They wouldn’t even have to win to get qualified. Didn’t know if it was possible.
Greg, the stakes nominations for the Lexington Stakes are already closed. If you search Equibase Stakes Nominations for Keeneland you’ll see who’s be nominated there.
Major Dude and Disarm have both been nominated for the Lexington Stakes so they are able to run if desired by the connections.
Thought about the final preps:
* I’m not going to get too involved in figuring the derby points situation. With some connections coming to their senses about the chances of their horses (even if they have enough points), and with the unfortunate but inevitable attrition due to sickness/injury, things will be sorted out in time. What looks hopeless now may turn out to be historic (e.g., Rich Strike).
* Steve’s rankings will look different on Monday. Raise Cain, Slip Mahoney, Geaux Rocket Ride, and National Treasure will drop out….more if Steve stops at 12. Verifying and Mandarin Hero will be ranked, and possibly King Russell. I suppose that long-shot Lord Miles will make it in. What about Blazing Sevens? I guess it depends on whether it’s 12 or 15 horses.
*After watching 3 riveting stretch duels today, I looked at past derbies to see how runners fared in the derby after a tough stretch duel. Not counting the Sept 2020 derby that had Authentic off for 7 weeks, the last derby winner that had a long, close stretch duel was I’ll Have Another in 2012. Before that, we saw Super Saver, Street Sense, Barbaro, and Funny Cide win the derby in this century.
*Speed figures for today’s races will help a bit to solve the derby puzzle. But we’ll have to wait a few days for Brisnet and Thoro-Graph numbers. I think the SA derby will earn good numbers. The pace was similar to the typical Kentucky Derby. In the Blue Grass, Tapit Trice and Verifying came home in 12 2/5 sec, easily the fastest final furlong of the three races.
Now I’ll take a break until Steve’s rankings on Monday.
Roberta, I think there may be a wild scramble for points in the Lexington Stakes next Saturday. The preps are not over just yet but the serious contenders have established themselves. Now for the dreaded post position draw to contend with.
It’ll be interesting to see if Steve tinkers much with his present list.
Wonderful races today! How ’bout that Mandarin Hero? He gave Practical Move a run for his money!
Three great races, almost back to back! Love it! And the cards at all three tracks were chock-full of talented stakes races.
Of the three, the Blue Grass looked most impressive. Tapit Trice (now my No. 1, although Forte has done nothing wrong) and Verifying ran a wonderful race.
Practical Move found a way to win in the Santa Anita Derby, but if second-place finisher Mandarin Hero is a Japanese second-stringer, our 3YO colts may be in t-r-o-u-b-l-e. Lord Miles is a toss for me in the Derby, but Hit Show ran an excellent race, considering the layoff and the outside post.
Congratulations to all the winners: these prep races are important victories in and of themselves.
Yes, Ms Blacktype, Tapit Trice’s Blue Grass Stakes impressed me the most while the Wood Memorial was so slow it’s hard to consider it a vital race. The Santa Anita Derby might be deceptive to judge just yet, Practical Move wasn’t really stopping and they went relatively fast.
I need to watch the replay to confirm it but I got the feeling that Jockey Ramon Vazquez was overconfident with Practical Move … he could have moved earlier instead of being hustled by the explosive advance of Skinner on his outside.
Anyway, Mandarin Hero’s performance was stounding under any perspective…
I think you may be right, Nelson. I’d have to watch again to be sure but as you say Vazquez may have been overconfident while trying to save the horse a bit but then having to desperately ride to win. Agree, Mandarin Hero put in an outstanding effort while unlucky to lose.
Wow! A fantastic day of racing with thrilling close finishes in all three preps. Witnessing these horses and riders giving their best is what it’s all about and makes me glad that I’m a horseracing fan. Thank you, racing gods for a memorable afternoon.
Lord Miles wins the Wood.
This was the most exciting day of Derby preps that I have EVER experienced. Congratulations to all!
Hi Roberta:
I have to agree! Awesome races and finishes: going to take a bit to digest!
Yes, Roberta, exciting preps. The Wood Memorial was almost 3 seconds slower than the Santa Anita Derby that’s 15 lengths or so, just filling the Derby field.
It will be interesting to see today’s speed figures: highest probably top 3 in SA Derby?
Yes, biggy312, but I always go by the Thoro-Graph figures.
Japan is bringing solid horses this year.
If a Japanese coming from a second tier circuit is able to almost defeat Practical Move what could we expect from Derma Sotogake…
Will also the Derby belong to Japan this year?
Stay tuned…!
I’m a believer now!
You’re the MAN Nelson.
Yesterday, April 7th, you posted the following to me; “My get well present to you is Lord Miles in the Wood Memorial, you may want to squeeze him in any of your exotics”.
Hats off to you Nelson, I hope you won a ton of money betting Lord Miles at 59-1!
Fortunately, my KD horse, Hit Show, finished 2nd, which gives him enough points to make the KD starting gate.
BTW, I believe you’re spot on with your take on these up and coming Japanese horses.
Happy for you both! Congrats.
Thanks Lynda!
Thanks for your message Bill…I hit a 2_dollar trifecta but would have been a huge pay day had I been a bit bolder
I just wanted to share a clear huge longshot with you …
You’re welcome Nelson
As I mentioned in an earlier post, I didn’t make any bets today because of my knee surgery this past monday.
In the future, I’ll certainly pay particular attention to your longshot picks. 🙂
Good luck moving forward with your KD pick.
Congratulations Nelson!! You ROCK hitting that tri!
Impressive to call a longshot like that. More impressive to cash nicely on it. Congrats Nelson.
Tapit Trice, yes!! On to Churchill Downs with confidence.
Wow. I don’t have any room at the moment, but TT could move from my 2nd group of three to my 1st group of three. Saez knew the pace wasn’t fast and brilliantly got TT in a good position so he wouldn’t be too far back going into the stretch. I think he might have had his nose in front at the furlong pole. Final eighth in 12 2/5. Verifying was GAME!
Yes, Roberta, If Saez hadn’t gone the long way around the race was over, they stalled upfront, so Saez went for it with confidence then hands and heels at the end. Tapit Trice still likes looking around at the start and a bit in the straight but Churchill Down should be a good track to ‘run.’ He’s maturing, slowly. Exciting race, not sure what the protest was about, interesting what Saez said when interviewed by Gabby Gaudet.
I didn’t hear the interview. What did he say?
Saez implied that Gaffalione tried to bump Tapit Trice when he passed Verifying in an attempt to create a means to protest. Saez said he felt something, bump, from behind him so he knew the objection was a waste of time.
Thanks, Davids. It was frivolous. Same in the Wood.
Santa Anita Derby was a fantastic race, fear the top three especially Mandarin Hero. Wow.
GREAT races so far. Looks like Mandarin Hero (40 pts) may not have enough points. Skinner has 45.
The points are getting tricky now but 40 usually is enough. I thought there could more to protest in the Santa Anita Derby than in the Blue Grass Stakes.
Sentimental choice for me is Derma Sotogake. I love seeing Sunday Silence’s line represented in G1 competition.
Same here, Fuzzi. I’m a big fan of Sunday Silence and it’s why I also like Mandarin Hero who has Sunday Silence as his dam’s grand sire. I wonder if Mandarin Hero has any Japanese Derby points to qualify for the KD. If not, the 40 points he earned today might not be enough to qualify for the Derby.
Dewey, MH has no other Derby points. He still might make it in with defections and scratches. The bubble right now is at 45 points I believe. In past years many horses have made the cut with fewer than 40 points. Do not fhink I would be sending MH home just yet.
Lynda, you’re right, I keep forgetting about defections and scratches. Imagine having three Japanese horses in the Derby? Churchill must be salivating at the prospect of having tons of Japanese money to boost the mutuels. If yesterday’s races were an indication, we’re in for a very exciting Derby
Got my popcorn ready. Not betting any of these preps. Decided to save my Kingsbarns/Louisiana winnings to go all in on Two Phil’s in the derby, hopefully at 15-1 or higher. So… I’ll be rooting for all the favorites today – Practical Move, Tapit Trice, and Hit Show, so my stock price (odds) on Two Phil’s goes up.
Good luck to everyone betting today. Let’s have some exciting and safe racing.
Demo, I think you got your wish! Two Phil’s is pretty high on my new Derby list, which took some epic rearrangement once I realized that for some horses, 45 POINTS may not be enough to get into the race. Until the defections start, which they will.
Hi Ms. Blacktype, yes I couldn’t have asked for much more. Think the odds I’d like to see will be there. And I definitely saved money by not betting today. Time to go big or go home in the derby.
DEVASTATED!!!!!!!!!!!!! GRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR!!!!!!!!!!!! Feels like a punch in the gut. Oh well, better to know now than after the race that he’s not feeling well. So disappointing for his connections. Guess we may see GRR in the Preakness.
Yes, El Kabong, I had the same feeling when Signator was injured albeit much earlier.
1 – I Don’t Get It (15-1)
2 – Dazzlemesilver (30-1)
3 – Geaux Rocket Ride (scratched)
4 – One in Vermillion (30-1)
5 – Practical Move (6-5)
6 – National Treasure (5-2)
7 – Skinner (3-1)
8 – Mandarin Hero (6-1)
9 – Low Expectations (20-1)
Revised morning line odds as result of GRR scratch. He was favorite to win this morning.
Lynda, Practical Move was the 8-5 ML favorite. Both GRR and National Treasure were 3-1.
Looks like PM is certain to be odds on.
Roberta, I copied this off two tweets that Byron White retweeted.
I do not follow odds as a rule because the state of Georgia does not allow pari-mutual betting.
Addionally I cannot set up a TVG or any other account on line. Once I enter my zip code, I am told it’s not allowed.
The tweet popped up in my Twitter account and I simply shared it.
Hi, Lynda. You should move south to Florida. Anything goes there gambling wise! I know a real estate agent in Central Florida if you’re looking for property in the Ocala area (“Horse Capital of the World”). Ha ha! The revised ML you posted is correct. Only your final comment was inaccurate.
The big races are upon us!
That was not my comment.
Geaux Rocket Ride has a “slight temperature.” Scratched from SA Derby. What a shame.
Yes, such a shame indeed!!! Gotta feel for Mandella, he’s had such bad luck when it comes to getting to the Derby!! Next year will be the year…..I hope.
Just saw the tweet. Very unfortunate indeed.
White Abarrio was supposed to race this weekend. He too has spiked a fever and has a cough and has been scratched.
Thing about this shipping fever viruses is that they can spread quickly through a barn or training stable.
Err, Practical Move.
Questions to be answered in today’s Derby preps…..
Wood Memorial: Will Hit Show be able to overcome his outside post (13) or be a flop on Broadway?
Blue Grass Stakes: Will Tapit Trice leave the gate in quick order or enjoy the view from the rear?
Santa Anita Derby: Will Mandarin Hero be a candidate to throw in a Political Move or lay an egg foo yung?
My key horses to use in exotic wagers today will be….
Wood: Slip Mahoney
Blue Grass: Tapit Trice
Santa Anita: Mandarin Hero
May the horse be with you!
Ha ha! I love egg foo yung!
Dewey, what do you like about Mandarin Hero? I just don’t see anything about him that I can hang my hat on. Are his ML odds so low because Japanese wagering is commingled?
Sunday Silence (an all time favorite of mine) is dam’s grandaddy and Mandarin Hero consistently puts in a powerful rally. Also, what really got my attention was the cool, calm and collected confidence that his trainer had coming into Santa Anita. He assured everyone that MH would put in a winning performance. As a “cherry on top”, the trainer (Mr. Fujito?) said that he was surprised and pleased that Mandarin Hero broke so quickly while gate training here. The vibes were positive.
Correction: trainer s/b Fujita Terunobu.
Thanks, Dewey. I’m glad that I don’t bet. Ha ha! Great pick!
Dewey, I take back my original comment. Ha ha! Great pick, even if he lost by a whisker.
Whew! What an exiting race. It’s a shame Mandarin Hero lost the photo as I doubt that the 40 points he earned will be enough to enter the Derby.
Don’t give up hope, Dewey.
Dewey, I’m pretty sure egg foo young originated in CHINA, not Japan. In any case, Mandarin Hero did NOT lay an egg. I was sure concerned he might mug the horses on either side of him coming out of the gate, he was so skittish in the post parade. But he ran a great race.
But “Mandarin” IS Chinese.
So solly, Ms. Blacktype, but as Ms. Roberta has pointed out, Mandarin Hero is Chinese name. Now, maybe big wagers will come in not only from Japan but also Hong Kong. Oh boy, more egg foo yung, please!
Hi Steve! Thought you might want to know that here in Northern Virginia at least, some of the local newspapers have picked up on Forte’s connections in Clarke County. The article that was mentioned was going back to a long history of champion thoroughbreds there going back to Sir Barton that stood stud at Audley Farm in Clarke County for a bit.
Thanks, sounds intresting. Next week’s Rankings will have some other background on Forte.
I’m glad to see KingsBarns back to the worktab. He is my top pick to win the KY Derby. I also hope Disarm makes the cut. We will know after this week what rank he is in the 20’s after the preps (he’s at 18 now). It will be interesting to see if Disarm runs in the Lexington to grab more points . Slip Mahoney should run big today in the Wood from his PP5. I’m glad that Dylan Davis is back aboard. KB,Disarm, and Slip Mahoney are my three KDFW horses, and I’m hoping Disarm and Slip get in the Derby to join KingsBarns. I am singling Slip in my Wood P5. 1,3,9/1,4/2,4,6/4,5,7,11/5. Hoping to hit the $1 P5. Safe trips to all.
Adding #2 Lady Jasmine to my Wood Memorial P5. in race 7, the first leg. My 11 year old Border Collie Lady sadly passed away on April 5 from cancer. Prayers and love to my best friend in Heaven. Happy Easter to all.
I am so sorry, 1JoeP. The love that you gave to each other will sustain you.
Thanks for the kind words Roberta.
So very sorry for your loss of Lady.
Sadly I know all too well about such losses.
Thank you Lynda . I hope you and your family has a Happy and healthy Easter.
My picks, FWIW.
BLUE GRASS–Tapit Trice has the same challenge in this race as Forte has in the Kentucky Derby. That is, he needs to be closer to the leaders by the stretch call than he was in the TB Derby. I see Classic Car Wash turning the tables on TT.
SANTA ANITA DERBY–Practical Move is the best out west. And the best today.
WOOD MEMORIAL–Post position will hurt the favorite. Slip Mahoney and Dylan Davis will get the job done.
Can’t wait for tomorrow. Fingers are crossed for Geaux Rocket Ride. Hope he gets a good ride and a clean trip. That was a nice work at 6f’s. Mandella deserves a SA Derby and a Kentucky Derby contender, he’s a class act. Every time I see this horses name I get a mental picture of Slim Pickens riding that rocket in Dr. Strangelove. Guess I don’t know anyone else who’s done it.
Hope he runs a big race, El Kabong! Like
Slim Pickens wahooing atop that bomb!
El Kabong, I too hope GRR has a great race tomorrow.
Love your analogy.
Mr Mandella is so deserving of a SA and Derby, I agree.
I also really like GRR.
Do you remember Slim Pickens playing “Wild Jack” Monroe in the Mary Tyler More Show? Wild Jack owner of WJM-TV, Mary meets cowboy Wild Jack riding a wooden horse. Lol.
That’s Moore not More, I just love Apple’s autocorrect. The Santa Anita Derby is a fascinating race with quite a few trainers whose colts you’d like to win the race for besides Dick Mandella. John Shirreffs, Tim Yakteen, Keith Desormeaux as well.
It’s an interesting race….I like Skinner but also think Geaux Rocket Ride is a player! Skinner needed the San Felipe, I was there, and Geaux Rocket Ride had dapples, a sign of fitness…O’Neill’s I Don’t Get It is also a good horse, not to mention Tim’s duo and Mandaran Hero. ..I like Classic Catch in the Wood Memorial….and there’s a Bob hirse—now trained by Brittany Russell named Uncle Jake, $675K yearling who debuted in the Geaux Rocket Ride maiden race, and was bet—big price….
Best of luck, Matthew. I like too many to be honest but if Practical Move dominates he has to be the new favorite for the Derby. Have a great day if you’re going.
You are correct. I like them all. Still in Mandella’s corner but would not be unhappy if the others got there.
Best of luck. I agree with you.
Whoa! Had no idea Slim Pickens played the owner of the TV station MTM worked at. Did he axe the staff?! That would have been hysterical.
Thanks, David, for your superb memory.
Ha ha Ms Blacktype, I won’t embarrass myself by telling you how many times I’ve watched the whole Mary Tyler Moore Show over again but it’s more than a dozen times. My father’s work meant we were travelling a lot as children, certain things grounded you. Horse racing was one along with certain TV Shows.
Ha! I am watching MTM on Hulu. Steph and I are only on season 5 and I haven’t seen it yet. But I’ll get there. Can’t wait.
My first boss was just like Mr Grant, turned the boy into a man. Still refer to him as Mr… respect.
Defining Purpose wins (upset) Ashland Oaks out of 1 hole. Punchbowl 2nd and Julia Shining 3rd.
Interesting that the Wests seemed to have moved all their horses from Baffert. Temporary because of Baffert’s status at CHD?
Thanks for posting the Ashland results, Lynda. Forgot to tape it. Had an early dinner and am at a concert with older Boomers—this place would have been rockin’ 45 years ago. Now everybody’s fighting to get one of a diminishing number of seats!
Fortunately they’re starting at 7 instead of 8.
Sounds like a good time. Enjoy!!
We were all done by 10. LOL. Although some of the folkies from the 50s (!) and 60s had more energy than I did. Perhaps because they were further from the (frigid) front door.
Lynda King I wouldn’t be surprised if the Wests did after what happened to their horse (Maximum Security) with another trainer, Jason Servis. Although what happened with Maximum Security has nothing to do with Baffert, it would look irresponsible as owners to stay with BB.
P.S. I feel badly for John Servis, Jason Servis’ brother. He’s a classy and rule abiding trainer. He doesn’t need to be associated with criminal conduct of his brother.
Per Mandarin Hero’s trainer, slow work was on purpose. He put in his works in Japan. Everything on schedule for SA Derby.
The Japanese do train differently than American trainers.
Angel of Empire has emerged as a serious challenger to Forte and Practical Move.
The way Angel of Empire engulfed the field coming to the homestretch is the kind of move you can see typically winning the Derby. As highlighted by Steve, you ought to be not only impressed by his final 600 meters but also convinced that the Derby distance will greatly play in his favor. The son of Classic Empire has taken off in a big way…
Angel of Empire’s pedigree is rich in prominent names. His sire, Classic Empire was a 2-year-old champion who also won the Arkansas Derby but was a very unlucky morning line favorite in the Derby. Grandsire Pioneerof the Nile is the sire of TC Champion American Pharoah. Broodmare sire, To Honor and Serve was a top 2-year-old (winner of the Remsen and Nashua Stakes) who Steve ranked second behind Uncle Mo until the Fountain of Youth.
To Honor and Serve exited his 3rd in the Florida Derby with a minor injury and needed 4 months to recover. He won the Pennsylvania Derby in Stakes record time and the Cigar mile to close his 3-year-old campaign. He also won the Woodward defeating future BCC winner Mucho Macho Man..
Being a son of Bernardini and maternal grandson of Deputy Minister one can only guess that To Honor and Serve would be also a good broodmare sire…
Angel of Empire’s second dam is by Carson City the broodmare sire of the unforgettable Barbaro. When you see Miswaki in the sire and female family you may very well remember his best daughter Urban Sea… a real royal family.
Angel of Empire and Practical Move have beaten all odds and are the former underdogs who can beat the champion…
Thanks for the interesting pedigree overview, Nelson. I had forgotten that Carson City was the broodmare sire of Barbaro. Oh…Barbaro. When he died, I was devastated.
You are right on about AoE and PM as major challenges to Forte. Those three are my top Derby colts, and there’s a big gap to my 2nd three.
Yes Nelson, Angel of Empire looks as though he’s thriving at the right time. To Honor and Serve was a favorite of mine, his dam’s family traces back to Golden Trail a blue hen/foundation mare for Darby Dan Farm. By the way, To Honor and Serve defeated Mucho Macho Man in both the Nashua and Remsen Stakes earlier on.
Fingers crossed that Tapit Trice breaks with the field in the Blue Grass Stakes because going by today’s results he’ll struggle with a bad start.
I’m happy to see that Steve hasn’t doubted Practical Move for reasons related to his sire’s alleged distance limitations. I just read another so-called expert who believes that Practical Move is suspect simply because of his sire, Practical Joke. I’d like to throw out the names Boundary, Maria’s Mon, Leroidesanimaux, Malibu Moon, Lucky Pulpit, Uncle Mo, Scat Daddy, New Year’s Day, Into Mischief, and Protonico. Not one of those racehorses was proven at distances beyond 9f, either because they never attempted the distance or failed at the distance. Yet all of them sired a Kentucky Derby winner in the past 15 years.
Practical Joke, unlike the aforementioned runners, at least got to the Derby and ran a respectable 5th from Post 19. (Scat Daddy ran in the Derby, but finished 18th.) Practical Move hasn’t done anything to date ON THE TRACK that would indicate distance limitations for the Derby. If you want an expert’s opinion of his pedigree, look no further than Steve’s Week 10 rankings.
I simply do not understand why so many people only talk about the sire, with little or no regard for the most influential mare.
Many people thought that Secretariat could not get the distance in the classic races; Bold Ruler was a speedy horse, but he was distance limited. Secretariat was blessed with the innate ability to carry his “Bold Ruler” speed for a “Princequillo” long distance.
Take a look at the influential mares on the dam side of Angel of Empire and Kingsbarns pedigrees. Both horses should be able to carry their speed at classic distances.
Thanks, Mary. Some focus on just the sire simply because it’s easy.
Exactly, Roberta. Add in Nureyev and Siyouni – sprinter/milers that throw brilliant speed into mares packed with stamina. The end result is dynamite that will carry a distance. As Mary stated above, the mare is the vital cog in the wheel.
Thanks, Davids. Nureyev! I don’t know a lot about pedigrees, but that name gives me goosebumps. Ha ha!
Both brilliant stars, man and horse.
I too underestimated Angel of Empire, underestimated him twice, won’t do that again. I really think he’s the real deal. Looking forward to this weekend’s preps.
Just want to wish Happy Easter and Happy Passover to everyone.
And that the traditional Easter break gives you all the occasion to spend time with your families and loved ones that may not have been possible during Covid epidemic the past two years.
Safe travels if you are flying or driving.
Thank you, Lynda. The same to you and yours.
Thanks Lynda and wishing that you and your loved ones have a lovely Holiday.
The Bluegrass is a major coming out event for Tapit Trice, the hard to assess one. I thought he closed great, but is that enough? Maybe he’ll squeak by with a win but still not break well and barely make it up to win in a mediocre time. Or maybe he’ll be super impressive, win by 4 lengths and run the final fraction in under 6 seconds until Randy Moss says that’s impossible and changes it to 7. Also think Slim Mahoney could be a fast horse, or not, last year a few Wood runners disappointed, one with Steve A. who now can’t win an allowance race. Mage from the Florida Derby deserves credit for going beyond expectations, in a similar situation.
Dur to my recent knee replalcement surgery this past Monday, (4-3), I will be unable to make it to the casino to place a few wagers on the Big 3 Derby prep races on Saturday. However, just for the record these would have been my superfecta bets.
Blue Grass; Key #1, Tapit Trice on top of Verfying, Sun Thunder, Blazing Sevens and Raise Cain. 1/3-7-8-10
Wood Memorial; Key #13, Hit Show on top of Dreamlike, Slip Mahoney, Arctic Arrogance and Classic Catch, 13/1-5-6-11
Santa Anita Derby; Key #5, Practical Move on top of Geaux Rocket Ride, National Treasure, Skinner and Mandarin Hero.
5/3-6-7-8
Good luck to everyone.
Bill, I trust that the surgery went well. You may want to reconsider the BGS and throw in Classic Car Wash for your non-bet bet. Casse has come close in the post-AW years with Flameaway and Danzig Moon. I think this one has a fair chance to beat the favorite.
Take care!
Thanks Roberta, the surgery went well. I completed three “laps” around the nurses station, 4 hours after the surgery.
Good luck.
Great to hear!
Very chalky, Bill, but I’m in sync with your assessment of the “big three”. I’m anxious to see how Tapit Trice performs in the Blue Grass, particularly at the start. Being on the rail, if he doesn’t get a good start, he’ll find himself at the back of the pack and be dependent on a fast pace in order to put in his winning rally. Also anxious for Hit Show who drew the outside in post 13. Will he pull an “Instant Coffee” with the ten week gap between the Withers and Wood? Let’s hope not.
Glad to hear that your surgery went well and you’re back in training. Hope you’ll be close to 100% for the “run for the roses”.
Good Luck!
Many thanks Dewey.
Regarding the Blue Grass, I completely agree that Tapit Trice could be up against it breaking from the one hole. However, the late speed he showed in his last two races, could suit him well coming out of the far turn getting him in contention during the stretch drive.
Raise Cain showed an impressive turn of foot in the Gotham, closing from far back, to draw away by 7 1/2 open lengths.
With master closer Joel Rosario in the irons, I look for Raise Cain to be right there at the wire. Keep in mind Raise Cain has the same sire as Forte, and his broodmare sire, Lemon Drop Kid could close like a freight train. Bottom line, Raise Cain could spring an upset.
Regarding Hit Show, his outside draw could be a concern, but I’m hopeful he can sit mid-pack, and make a late run approaching the far turn, and be in contention during the stretch run. I have a lot of Derby Futures wagers on Hit Show in Pools 3,4, and 5.
In addition to a $100.00 win bet on Hit Show, at 77-1. I keyed him on top with the entire pool 3 & 5 field in my Exacta wagers.
In Pool 3, I have a $40.00 win be on Practical Move, at 58-1, and keyed him on top with the entire Pool 5 field.
I was blown away by the size of Practical Move, who appears to be a man amongst boys, if you get my drift.
I’ll be at the casino, come hell or high water, on Derby Day.
Good luck with your wagers Dewey.
Hi Bill…!
I am glad to know that you are well and great shape to enjoy and handicap horse racing.
My get well present to you is Lord Miles in the Wood Memorial… you may want to squeeze him in any of your exotics…
Thank you so much Nelson
Wow, Lord Miles, at 30-1, would produce a nice exotic payout if he hits the board. As I metioned, I will not be making it to the casino this weekend due to my knee surgery. However, my main interest in the Wood Memorial, is to have Hit Show secure enough points to make the Derby starting gate.
Good luck with your wagers Nelson.
Congratulations Nelson, Lord Miles won the Wood Momerial at 59-1. I hope you won a ton of money with your pick.
Lord Miles certainly didn’t show a lot in four previous starts, so just out of curiosity, how did you see his potential as a longshot entry in the Wood? Curlin colts are usually late bloomer types, but not this one.
Fortunately, my horse Hit Show finished 2nd and secured enough Derby points to make the KD starting gate.
I haven’t seen the Exotics payouts, hope you scored big.
Bill, good luck with the recovery and your weekend picks. Just curious, you mentioned not being able to go and place a wager at the casino. Do you live in Vegas?
Thanks for the support Zanytactics, I appreciate it.
Actually, I live in San Diego, and place my bets at an Indian Casino, about 30 miles East of San Diego.
Good luck Zanytactics.
Bill, good to see your post. Hope your surgery went well and your recovery will be smooth and speedy.
Thanks Lynda, the knee replacement surgery went exceptionally well, and I’m on the road to recovery. Medical technology is nothing short of amazing these days.
Good luck tomorrow. 🙂
You too Bill!
Steve Keeneland race two tomorrow #11 Upper Case—I think the oldest racehorse ever is 55 years old!
Is Riva Ridge running too?
LOL
When I last saw Smarty Jones at Parx few years ago, he looked ready to run. You never know. Riva is coming back for the 50th Anniversary.
It’s not right. .there was a $20K claimer named Manta…..
Oldest living horse on record was a Shire/Cob cross who lived to age 61.
Oldest living Thoroughbred was 51.
Have a friend whose Arabian gelding lived to age 40. He was still being used as an Equine Therapy horse when he died.
My Appaloosa mare was 36 going on 37 when she died.
Neighbor had a QH who was 36 when he died.
Part of it is luck and part genetics and of course good care.
My mare was old line Appaloosa going back to original Nez Perce Indian Tribe.
Just read that Mandarin Hero is listed as 8-1 in the morning line for the SA Derby. Another website is stating that this horse (MH) will ‘likely be a double-digit longshot’.
Interesting. Very interesting….of course with apologies to Major Hans Kuehn (Hogan’s Heroes).
Major Hans Kuehn? In Hogan’s Heroes? I must have missed that episode. Ha ha!
I hope that Mandarin Hero has a safe trip. For himself and the other runners.
“I see nothing. Nothing!!” – Hans who? Lol.
Roberta, if you’re up for it, again, Royal Randwick has four Group 1 races and three Group 2 races this Saturday (Australian Eastern Time) as an hors d’oeuvre in wait for the main meal(s) in New York, Kentucky, and California. Could be fun.
Thanks! I’ll try!!
Excellent, Roberta. It’s going to be sunny/cloudy/windy while the track will be heavy. Here in Melbourne we are expecting the coldest Easter in 70 years but everything is relative. Ha ha It’s only 59, a mild day really.
I’d love to have a few 59-degree days in South Florida. How about Cascadian to beat the favorite in the Queen Elizabeth?
Sorry, Roberta, I’m going with Anamoe to keep winning. It’s been bucketing down in Sydney but clearing with wind tomorrow. Here in Melbourne, it’s raining cats and dogs right now, very pleasant with champagne listening to Ella Fitzgerald and Louis Armstrong- “April in Paris”. Dreamy, best time to be there. Or was.
I’ll forgive you, Davids. We’ll always have Paris.
That’s right, Roberta. Looking over the beauty of Paris from the balcony of the Centre Pompidou, c’est magnifique!
Explosive Jack, just won the Sydney Cup, mate!! Mate, is the second word in the Sydney vernacular, mate!! Ha ha
On to the Queen Elizabeth, Roberta.
Dubai Honour had too much stamina in the Queen Elizabeth, Roberta. The Europeans have a raft of top line turf runners and the crème de la crème are invincible. Dubai Honour is just below the top rung.
Hope you have been enjoying the races.
Davids, unfortunately I fell asleep before the QE stakes. Just watched the replay. Do you know why Cascadian was scratched? The betting all along favored Dubai Honour, which was significant considering how popular is Anamoe. But WOW, closers sure do have an advantage on that course!
That’s Major Hans Schultz
That’s Sergeant Hans Schultz….
Richtig, mein freund!!
No Cave Rock in the SA Derby!! That’s a big surprise to me, and really opens it up for possibilities! IMO
I’m glad he’s not in there to ruin the entire Derby picture in Californina
Yes Steve but where does Cave Rock run as a prep for the Preakness Stakes? Lexington Stakes would appear most likely or something in California then ship.
Maybe he wont make the Preakness. Who knows if hes OK.
Steve, it’s looking unlikely now, perhaps they’ll wait for a tilt at the Travers, Breeders’ Cup Classic double. Cave Rock’s value at stud is immeasurable right now. That value could go either way, depending.
Hear, hear! Plus, the workout pattern was a red flag, so this news should not be a surprise.
Exactly what I said two days ago. People get fooled by the “fast” works. But when you pay attention to the pattern, it tells a different story.
No reason to rush the horse and ruin him for the sake of glory.
This was after Cave Rock worked 1.12.3 for six on the second of April or just three days ago….have no clue to what Baffert is planning for CR.
Bruce, may be totally wrong, but have the feeling Bob is going prepare Cave Rock for the Travers with a graded stakes race before August.
D Wayne Lucas said that Bob had a talent for targeting races that he is confident they will win.
The Wood and the Blue Grass have some fascinating elements and possibilities. I haven’t seen the SA Derby PPs. In the Blue Grass, Tapit Trice drew Post 1. Coincidentally, he had his best race (the 1-turn mile at GP) breaking from Post 1. Major Blue seems to be the only frontrunner, but he would need to improve dramatically even with a clear early lead. Verifying, a stalker, will be contending early. Classic Car Wash would be an enticing long-shot but for the missed workout this past weekend. Raise Cain broke his maiden in the slop at Keeneland, so maybe his win in the Gotham mud was because he’s good and not just a mudder.
In the Wood, Hit Show has the outside Post 13. (Sorry, Bill Dawson…Hope your surgery went well!) He’ll need a lot of luck to find a good spot fairly close to the pace. There’ll be plenty of pace with Slip Mahoney, Arctic Arrogance, and Uncle Jake dueling early. I’ll give the maiden, Dreamlike (by Gun Runner out of a Tapit mare!), a lot of consideration. Does Pletcher have a derby stable for the ages or what?!?!
At first glance, Roberta, I thought this is trouble for Tapit Trace but looking across the gate he should be ok as long as Luis Saez can break reasonably well. If they can keep position until the turn Tapit Trice could explode down the straight. If they faulted badly at the start there won’t be a get out of jail free card this time. Luis, it’s up to you.
I’m happy with Arctic Arrogance’s post so we’ll see if he’s matured some since his last race. It would be good for racing to have Linda Rice in the Kentucky Derby. East vs West, Boy vs Girl always play well. Ha ha
In the Santa Anita Derby, Practical Move looks the winner but a Geaux Rocket Ride or Skinner triumph would be just as joyous. What a day of racing, coast to coast and that’s only the Derby preps. Easter break as well. Sunshine at Keeneland, cloudy at Aqueduct but no rain, sunshine at Santa Anita. Perfect. Good luck to everyone.
Davids, those forecasts are good news! You know that Linda Rice has never had a derby runner? She came close in the covid year, but Max Player was moved to the Asmussen barn. Arctic Arrogance has a great post. He will surely make his presence felt. I am so excited about Saturday’s races.
Thanks Roberta, I wasn’t quite sure whether Linda Rice had or hadn’t participated in the Derby beforehand. Fingers crossed for her. Yes, the excitement is bubbling over. The Blue Grass Stakes is always such a special day at Keeneland wish I was there, I’m a bit anxious for Tapit Trice as well let’s hope he performs well. The Santa Anita Derby should be thrilling but who will win?
I’ll go out on a limb and say that Practical Move will win. Ha ha!
Someone named a horse Low Expectations. I’m not kidding. It’s right there in the PPs.
Ha ha Yes, I can see the shrewd angle by which you’ve come up with Practical Move. Lol!! Two separate ambitious, or desperate, owners actually called their horses Dont Lose. Good luck with that.
Oh my!
Great draw for Slip Mahoney PP5 in the Wood Memorial. Hit Show is marooned in the 13 PP. I’m glad to have bet SM at 130-1 in KDFW6. I bet him to win and boxed him with Forte, Disarm, KingsBarns, Derma S. Hoping for a strong 1 or 2 finish for Slip to stamp him as a major KY Derby contender. Slip should live the 2 turns and the 1 1/8 with his stout pedigree.
Poor Hit Show drew the outside 13 post in the Wood. Probably needs a top 3 finish to make the Derby.
Here’s to the man that makes the sweetest two minutes in sports even sweeter for all of us. HAPPY BIRTHDAY. Mines Friday and I’m getting a great card at Keeneland opening day.
You talkin about me? Lol. Thank you Derek, that’s very kind of you. And an early Happy Birthday to you. What better way to spend it than at Keeneland on opening day.
Watch Two Phil’s gallop out on the Turfway track feed, he looks like he wants to go around again. He’s now my #1.
Yes I saw that. He was fighting the rider when he tried pulling him up. Outrider had to help get him stopped. That is my angle for next week’s comment.
Fantastic, can’t wait to read it. My lucky number is 6, so I’ll be curious to see if he moves up into that top 6 range in your upcoming rankings. If yes, I would have to consider the stars truly aligned. 🙂
We’ll see what happens this weekend. I’ll try my best to make it happen.
Here are my top four, Two Phils, Forte Disarm and Derma. I think Two Phil’s is the real deal, and after watching the Jeff Ruby replay I was impressed with that middle move where he just put everything into that effort and made it look as if he was having a good time running past them all. I’m looking for Turfway to get on the map yet again with its series of pre-Derby races for 3 y. o’s.
Derma S is quite the puzzle.
Thank you Steve for keeping us up to date. The UAE Derby was most impressive. If the Japanese want to win though they in my opinion should keep in mind the jockey. Getting sucked into a speed duel at the start of the KY Derby probably not the way to go. Some real experience at CD wouldn’t hurt either. As the breeder of Forte is right down the road from me in the next county a little partial. I think Todd is due a derby win but that does not mean Forte will be the one. Look at how many times the favorite going in comes up short,
You will like next week’s comment in the Rankings.
Anybody know anything about instant coffee?
I bet him in the future pool 4 at 18-1
I mentioned him in Knocking on the Door. May go in Lexington if he trains well
Needs pts to get in, it’s Lexington or bust
Yes, he’s slow lol
To follow Terri Z’s plea to the horse racing gods, here is my request:
Dear racing gods,
May we please have a normal Kentucky Derby this year? I will remind you of the havoc you have wreaked these past several years.
2018 – If racing rules had been followed, Justify would not have been allowed entry in the derby. He was entered, and he won the Triple Crown.
2019 – Omaha Beach, the morning line favorite, is scratched days before the derby due to a trapped epiglottis. Maximum Security finishes first but is disqualified for interference in the stretch run. A horse unaffected by the interference, Country House, is made the winner.
2020 – The pandemic causes CD to postpone the derby until September. A derby in name only.
2021 – Medina Spirit finishes first but is disqualified for an illegal race-day medication. The official ruling is announced in February 2022. Mandaloun is anointed as the derby winner.
2022 – The derby is won by 80-1 Rich Strike, who gained entry due to a late scratch. He proceeded to benefit from the fastest opening quarter mile in derby history, set by a colt that had raced only in the UAE.
2023 – ?????
It’s in your hands, derby gods. Give us a break!
Roberta great post… considering 2019…Maximum Security is placed 18th. .do you think it odd, that Medina Spirit is placed last, for picograms of a therapeutic substance (rules are rules), but Maximum Security was not placed last because of his trainer’s FBI wire tapped admissions? “It’s working TOO good”?….Hiding it, and getting away with it?….Max still 18th …..
Thanks, Matthew. I believe that the rules required Max to be placed immediately after the horses that he obstructed. War of Will, who finished 8th, and Long Range Toddy, who finished 17th.
Yes…but they now know more about the horse’s trainer ….
Stop going after Maximum Security in your posts. Until Servis admits he was given peds for THAT race, I don’t consider him to have been under the influence. Servis made a general statement that was wiretapped, that he tried it on everything, but he never admitted which specific races he used it on Max. I wish he was required to make such a statement, to end the doubts. I became a big fan, I don’t like to see the horse cut down.
So true. I said to someone that I would like a Derby winner who finishes first on the first Saturday of May with a number between 1 and 20. That sounds pretty basic but it hasn’t happened since 2018.
It’s also interesting to note that in the past 20 years, 20% of the Derby winners have paid more than $100.00.
Yes indeed, there have been some crazy results. But this year will be different. Right? Right? Ha ha!
Last year’s Derby was legitimate, not plagued like others you listed, and if you look at the order of finish, the best horse finished 2nd. What would the order be without the strong pace? Maybe Epicenter would have won? No way was Messier or Taiba, the favorite, going to. I think it proved who wasn’t as good as billed; namely, those two, who are not 10 f. horses.
I just think Taiba and Messier were both over rated for the Derby and the people who were upset by the Japanese horses’ pace pretty much implied one or the other of them would have won if it had been a more normal pace. But in fact, two of the most credible horses finished 2nd and 3rd. It’s very likely Epicenter would have won without the torrid pace, as it is he got 2nd. Other closers did okay, Mo Donegal was 5th, in line with expectations. Taiba has done okay since, but wasn’t prepared to win at 10f. and still hasn’t. So despite the complaints, the race was formful, except for the winner, who has to be given credit and a trophy he gets to keep, plus the purse. I didn’t like it either, but have to admire the jockey and horse who won that day.
Good on you, Roberta, I hope the racing gods will take heed from your plea. I’ve lost count/interest but isn’t there still another decision to be made on the 2021 Kentucky in June or July? While you’re asking can we have a gray colt this year. Ha ha
Yes, I think that a ruling on the appeal by the connections of MS is due at any time. As for a gray winning, there are a few candidates this year!
2018-Racing rules were followed: what are your talking about. It’s old news and the TC was completely earned
2019-maximum security shouldn’t been DQ unless it was drug related. This was brought in by Churchill downs.
2020-deserving winner and who cares about when the race happened;
2021- Churchill Downs shot themselves in the foot again. Don’t feel any empathy for their dumb decisions;
2022- Rich Strike well deserved win Again the pace makes a race, and Rich Strike has proven to be of quality
Hi, Jeff. Everything I stated is fact. All of those circumstances were not normal in regard to Derby history. I think you may have misunderstood the essence of my post.
Justify earned his way into the TC, won the TC, nothing unusual about that, except Justify was an exceptional horse. Also, he has had great success with offspring. Your comment on IF racing rules were followed, Justify would NOT been allowed as a Derby entrant. The Jimson weed argument was considered a conspiracy theory by courts, and experts alike that it was contaminated feed.
Opinions….everyone has one just like you have yours. The TC was earned because the CHRB looked the other way. CA racing specifically SA, is circling the drain.
Maximum Security went from the one path to the 6th patch in an instant around the far turn. If that’s not interference….I don’t was is.
But, it’s all water under the bridge. Hopefully, we’ll have a good race this year!
Cali racing IS Circling the Drain as you stated…but I wouldn’t dismuss their three year olds this year! Practical Move, Cave Rock, National Treasure, Geaux Rocket Ride, Skinner and I Don’t Get It—-a Sixpack of good horses!…..Triple Crown went through a 37 year draught….two in three years, in an era where horses don’t run in the Preakness, after losing in the Derby, they enter the Belmont fresh—much harder to win the TC today—Cali racing circling the drain, yes—dismiss the horse’s? Nope..
My point being…in 2023 there are an unusual number of good three year olds, in Cali….
That’s exactly what keeps worrying me, how good are colts from the Golden State?
Steve I know we have had this conversation on Dosage Index factor & that times have changed. Angel of Empire sports a 9.00 & all of the other high Dosage colts I tossed out on Future wagers on trips to Vegas in Dec & Jan have held serve to date they all gone by the way side as the races have gotten longer except this one. Hit Show, Verifying, Disarm & Practical Move are huge paydays both Vegas & Ky Future Exactas even with the Field several the early Pools.
Saw the Mandarin Hero work, thought his action was good, time very slow because they took a long time to get going, is all….
Thanks for the information, Matthew.
SWEDE: THANKS FOR ALL YOU DO FOR US ON THE KD TRAIL. I WOULD LIKE TO HAVE THE TG#s FOR FORTE AND AOE IN THERE LAST RACES. I WOULD TO SEE DERMA S WIN THE KD TO WAKE UP THE USA. THANKS SWEDE
Thoro Graph numbers we I’ll be published in the next Rankings.
Hey Steve — another great year of the great analyses we’ve come to expect. Love your work, and I was probably somewhere near you at Secretariat’s TC races 50 years ago. I also liked the comment by Matthew W. About Ferdinand. I love to bet these horses from barns that don’t bring a horse to Louisville unless they have a good chance of winning. Many horses are in the Derby so a cast of thousands can have an experience. I had Ferdinand and also Orb by favoring the old school trainers.
Thanks very much Larry.
I’m late posting in part because Saturday’s races left me feeling surprised, conflicted, confused, and somewhat dazed.
Steve, you’ve masterfully captured what I felt and made sense of it as part of your analysis. Who knows what will happen in one months’ time?
I can foresee scenarios where ANY of the horses on your list could emerge the winner of the Derby. Not to mention several of those knocking on the door — for example, what if Dreamlike wins the Wood Memorial? Does Pletcher throw him into the mix, or wait for the Preakness? Don’t count Verifying or Blazing Sevens out either if they run big races this weekend.
And Matthew W., you nailed it when you said this year’s Derby will be a good betting race. I have no idea now who is going to win.
Happy Birthday to the Wordsmith Extraordinaire and Best Wishes for many, many more!!!
I second that!
Thank you Lynda and Ms. B. I appreciate it.
We are fellow Aries. My birthday is next week.
Me too, mine is couple of weeks away too, though I am an Aries, not a Taurus. My granddaughters birthday is today. Same ss Steve’s.
Perhaps if we got together there would be a meltdown. A poet (in a college creative writing class) once described me as a “volcano.”
An early Happy Birthday to both of you
Thank you
Happy Early Birthday Ms B.
You are most welcome!
Well Happy Birthday Steve!!! Hope you and your wife made it a special day!! Thank you again for making this such a great site to take part in!!
I am asking something of the Horse Racing Gods and other angels up in heaven. I am hoping for a miracle, like what happened 50 years ago. A magical, almost mythical handsome chestnut thoroughbred, brought us all together as a nation.
Secretariat brought a very divided nation together and helped to heal deep wounds.
Derma Sotogake will grant your wish.
2023 looks like a tremendous betting proposition! I think Prat will stand pat, with Angel of Empire, leaving the unbeaten Kingsbarns for another rider, a horse with huge upside! Kingsbarns will go off around 12-1…..perhaps higher, this year reminds me of 2012, so many nice horses with good prices….
Hi Matthew- IMO Prat will choose Undefeated KingsBarns for the KY Derby. AOE is very good and peaking at the right time but KB is undefeated and is tactical, which will serve him well in the KY Derby. Prat believes that KB will run better with a target, which he will get with Derma S. in the race. KB reminds me of another Pletcher horse Always Dreaming. AD stalked the derby pace and won the KY Derby. I know you are also high like me on Disarm Matthew. IMO he is ready to fire big in the KY Derby. Hopefully he will get in with his 40 points. He is already working at CD and maybe his connections will opt for the Lexington to grab more points. The Derby picture should get a lot clearer after this SAT big 3 Preps. Watch out for Slip Mahoney in the Wood. I bet him at 130-1 in KDFW6. My three KDFW horses at big odds are: Disarm,KingsBarns,Slip Mahoney.
It would surprise me were Prat to opt for Kingsbarns over Angel of Empire..
We learned Angel of Empire can pass the field quickly….we learned Kingsbarns
can wire a field going an unmolested 1:14 2/5……
I agree!
Kingsbarns came home very strong. He certainly didn’t steal the race, it was given to him. Prat said that at the top of the stretch, the race was over; he had a lot of horse under him. There was no good reason for Prat to turn on the speed, there was no other horse to compete with. Go back and watch his maiden and allowance wins.
I am not interested in speed figures; they can change dramatically from one race to another; the pedigree never changes.
I wish Mr. Haskin would write more relative to pedigree; it is important in these classic races. It is all about the mare in the stamina category.
I think it’s more about the racing.
In 1986 people (me included) didn’t make much out of Charles Whittingham entering Ferdinand—his first Derby entrant in nearly 30 years.. if Geaux Rocket Ride wires them on Sat, and he might—another trainer that does not enter in the Kentucky Derby very often will be coming with :46 4/5 speed—
Mandarin Hero “officially” worked yesterday and was timed 53.60 for 4 furlongs (47/47). I stated the word officially loosely.
I’m sure it was just a gallop around the track and to take in the surroundings at SA.
Seeing the Brisnet figures for Angel of Empire and Forte, I’m confident that both are ready for big efforts in the Ky Derby. AoE went from a 97 in the Risen Star to a 101 in the Ark Derby. Forte went from a 103 in the FoY to a 100 in the Florida Derby. A slight regression for Forte was expected, as he had a 4-month layoff before the FoY.
Thanks, Roberta. It will be interesting to see what the figures are for the Santa Anita Derby, Blue Grass Stakes, and Wood Memorial we could have 5 colts at very even terms come Easter Monday.
I’m ready to explode!
After this weekend Prat, Frankie and Johnny V move to Keeneland, and Kimura goes back to Woodbine….it seems Brad Cox had replaced one French rider with another, with his top horses. ..
I love to hear the French jockeys being interviewed. Ooh la la!
The French stewards are very strict disciplinarians so the French jockeys are usually excellent riders and polite to a fault.
The French are polite even when they’re not polite. Ha ha!
Hello Steve
Longtime reader of your great work. Thanks for your perspectives each year on the KD trail. You make it extra exciting!
Looking forward to “hidden” National Treasures return.
Thank you very much Kim.
He does seem hidden, has run all good races, and working well for this….
Hi Steve,
Will you be writing an article on the pedigrees of each horse in your rankings? I’ve found this to be super useful in previous years.
I’m specifically interested in learning if Two Phil’s has the pedigree to get 1 1/4 and 1 1/2 miles. This is my “gut feeling” horse this year.
Thanks.
I have written about a lot of the pedigrees, but I will go over them again after next weeks races.
Excellent, thanks. Your pedigree analysis is my secret weapon for the Belmont, where it’s obviously amplified.
Great stuff everyone! Thanks
At last, Steve, the fog is clearing and the real contenders are beginning to line up. Moreover, after last weekend’s prep races I believe the Kentucky Derby isn’t as clear cut as it once may have been. Agree you entirely in that the Florida Derby was Forte’s worse effort thus far and what bad timing. Mind you, he still won which is the positive, the negative is will he do the same thing at Churchill Downs. You would think not, but the slight unraveling will be at the back of your mind come Derby day.
I thought you’re placing of Mage at No. 10 somewhat parsimonious considering how gallant his performance was in almost toppling the top dog. Would the half dozen above Mage have performed as well? I understand your reasoning/judgement but surely Mage deserves a few more steps up the ladder. Ha ha
Yes, I’m guilty as well in undervaluing Angel of Empire, his win in the Arkansas Derby is full of merit while appearing as though the further the race went, the further Angel of Empire was going to win by. He must be considered a real threat to Forte now.
On to this Saturday’s major preps with haste. The Wood Memorial looks like anyone’s race really but having a soft spot for Arctic Arrogance let’s hope he overcomes his non-willingness to pass horses with more built in stamina. Tapit Trice should win the Blue Grass Stakes on talent alone but he can be his own worst enemy. Moreover, Keeneland can by a difficult track to manoeuvre if not given a good post so fingers crossed. As for the Santa Anita Derby, this could be the fireworks we’ve all be waiting for, especially if Cave Rock is in the field. If Practical Move repeats in the same manner as his past few races you would expect Practical Move to become the new favorite for the Kentucky Derby.
However, if Cave Rock ‘rocks the casbah’ at Santa Anita Derby it will be the Preakness Stakes not the Kentucky Derby that will be whetting the appetite. Steve, from a somewhat dull Derby Trail over the past few months we are now suddenly in in a frenzy of high excitement. Can’t wait for your next chapter. Allez, Tapit Trice, Arctic Arrogance and Cave Rock if he runs.
Excellent post, Davids. I agree with you on all points. Mage is so talented…it’s too bad, as Mary said below, that he debuted in late January. Quite a few like that have tried: Curlin, Dunkirk, Materiality, etc.
Thanks Roberta, yes it’s a difficult assignment to keep progressing toward the Derby when there is no foundation behind them. As you point out the Derby tends to catch them out. It’s a pity Steve isn’t at Churchill Downs to observe the colts close up to see how they are looking. The internet can only show you so much. Sometimes they are look too beautiful to lose. Ha ha
I’m not discounting the Japanese entries. I believe the trainers learned a bunch after last year’s KD edition and will put that knowledge to good use this year.
We’re in the home stretch waiting for one more BIG weekend of racing to sort out the points and entries for the KD.
The Santa Anita Derby is loaded with probable entries. Practical Move, National Treasure, Skinner, GRR, Mandarin Hero, etc.
The question is, why would BB run Cave Rock in this race with only 6 works since his last race in the BCJ and first reported work in mid February. A few gaps here and there in the interim. Besides stiffing the competition for points and prize money…what does the horse gain out of running in a tough race without the proper conditioning?
No other prep for the Preakness. Have you watched his works?
Yes. The typical BB blazing speed works. Two in five days and two in 24 days.
Are you suggesting there are no other races for three year olds besides the SA Derby? The Lexington Stakes should be an easier path for the horse.
If he ran in the Lexington then what? Ship back to California and then back to Baltimore? Last year Baffert ran Taiba in SA Derby having only one sprint race in his life
Just checked out Cave Rocks 6f workout and I have to say absolutely Wow! He’s an absolute beast;
Time off seems to have developed him physically and mentally. If he runs anywhere near his papa, lookout-might be seeing something special later in year.
You’re right about the gaps in workouts for Cave Rock. Very unusual for a Baffert horse.
7 days, 12 days, 5 days, 10 days, 14 days
Red flag!
Steve, thanks for update especially a concise assessment of the Fla Derby. One question, Is there a separate pool for the Japanese betting handle or will it be combined? Have a Happy Passover from that happy gentile crying in the wilderness.
Not sure Derek. When the British run a horse the betting in England is separate. I’ll try to find out.
Derek, I believe that the betting is separate. Otherwise, the Japan runners in previous derbies would have been at much lower odds in our pool.
I think it’s combined this year…
Art Sherman told me Chrome was ready for the Kentucky Derby after the San Felipe, that his peak race was his SA Derby…..Todd saved horse, Forte has plenty in the tank, I look for a similar run from Practical Move this Sat— he doesn’t need to peak this weekend, he might get beat but as long as he is finishing well I like his Derby chances! The SA Derby is short on horses but some nice horse flesh, like you said Steve he keeps on winning around two turns, three wins, all better than previous—rooting for Tim! He’s 2 for 24 in two years with Bob’s transfers…but has Practical Move and Johannes, a 3yo turf miler that went 1:33 4/5 yesterday in his two turn debut.
Matthew, I think that Practical Move should win even if he’s not 100% for the prep. The race is shaping up to be like so many other recent preps (except the Ark Derby) with few graded stakes winners. Betting has been crazy. Both the San Felipe and the Arkansas Derby had just one last-out graded stakes winner (Practical Move at SA and Angel of Empire at Oaklawn). Both were 4th in the win pool. Practical Move SHOULD be the favorite again, but I wouldn’t bet on it. Ha ha!
There aren’t that many graded stakes out west, I’m not worried about that…I think with Cave Rock not entering Geaux Rocket Ride will be close to Practical Move in odds, nayve even favorite—The San Felipe was an oddly run race, very bunched until the homestretch, this time Mandella’s colt should be in front, unless Hejazi goes again…..it’s put up time, Practical Move does not need to win and I think he won’t…
That’s true about the number of stakes in California. It’s always been that way. But the Cal horses had two opportunities to beat PM out there, and they were soundly beaten. They could also go east for stakes. BTW, Hejazi is entered in the 7f Lafayette at Keeneland on Friday.
Of all the horses who have run their final derby prep already, I’m on team Sotogake.
Will be visiting Japan for the first time a week after the derby, so that could make it more fun.
Mr. H, I’ve been reading your analysis over and over for much of the past three hours. It’s your best yet. Maybe that’s because, as you said, there’s greater clarity after Saturday’s events. One passage that got me researching past derbies was the paragraph on Two Phil’s, where you wrote about pace figures and said “it is the final three-eighths in the Derby that is most important…”
What I came up with (and this may have been mentioned in last year’s blog or comments) is the importance in the final prep of being on or close to the lead by the stretch call. I found that, with the exception of Rich Strike, all derby winners back to 1987 were either 1st or 2nd at the stretch call of the final prep OR were within 2 1/2 lengths of the leader. Forte was 5th at the stretch call of the Florida Derby, 2 3/4 lengths behind the leader Mage.
Do we quibble about a fraction of a length? Or should we be concerned about Forte’s ability to put himself in the most advantageous position? As he’ll likely be the favorite, I’d lean toward the latter.
Thank you for the best Derby writing anywhere.
Thanks. He better put himself in a better position in the Derby. This wont be Mage he’ll be trying to run down. He has to show the acceleration hes always shown.
Roberta, I enjoyed reading your analysis as well as your critique of Steve’s column; the best this year for sure. One thing worth considering is the Japanese runner Derma Sotogake. This colt might just go hell for leather to see how far it will take him, splitting the field hither and thither and giving closers a better chance to repeat like last year.
Thanks so much, Davids. Maybe the Japanese connections learned something last year when the 1st and 2nd place UAE Derby runners (one of which was from Japan) set the fastest-ever quarter mile and 5th fastest half mile fractions. And they burned themselves out. Honestly, I don’t want a replay of 2022.
Yes, Roberta, you would hope they have learnt from experience but I can’t see the Japanese runners tucking in and waiting patiently like the Europeans. A good solid pace, that gives everyone room to manoeuvre, is what you’re after, a thrill. Ha ha
I’d like to see a typical early pace, like about 46 2/5 for the half mile.
Yes, perfect. The new Australian designed gate has improved upon the ‘fatal’ start but with 20 horses cramming for position early is inevitably going to have a negative impact for some.
I love all the pageantry, history surrounding the Kentucky Derby but the Belmont Stakes is the Triple Crown race I truly enjoy. Fair to everyone.
The Belmont Stakes is special. Survival of the fittest.
I saw the Kingsbarns/Flightline side by side pictures, outside of Flightline’s bigger rear leg muscle it looked like the same horse, both crossed with similar bloodlines…
Kingsbarns is beautifully bred to run all day long. He is proven at 1 3/16. He won’t be the pacesetter as he was in the Louisiana Derby, rather he’ll settle back in a stalking position. It is concerning that he didn’t begin his career until January, but he is a January foal. Nevertheless, he will be in my wagers.
If cave rock wins the Santa Anita Derby how are the points distributed?
Thanks
The 100 points are erased….if Cave Rock goes it’ll likely hurt the others, except for Skinner, who would surely get more pace…
Florida Derby seemed to take a lot out of Forte. Maybe he’s peaked too soon. I’ll be looking elsewhere on Derby day especially at that price.
I’ll include Forte in a trifecta wager, but not to win. I don’t know why, but I often have good luck with trifecta wagers in the Kentucky Derby. I’m not much of a gambler, so I never win a lot of money. I just like playing the game in my head and studying pedigree.
What the BSF are screaming and no TG below a “2”, with Forte at 95 and the Angel’s at 94, is the winner will be a surprise package-late developer! I hope it is not a Japanese horse winning;
With Cave Rock going to the SA derby, does this “flash” that Bob is confident? I thought he would’ve put Cave in a shorter race or allowance race.
thanks again Steve for your efforts
The pedigrees of Slip Mahoney, Kingsbarns, Raise Cain, and Angel of Empire are inundated with stamina on the tail. Speed figures are somewhat important, but in these classic races, stamina is most important. Of course, Forte should be included in all wagers.
Slip Mahoney may be little, but he is fierce, Shakespeare. Secretariat stood 16.2 hands, Seabiscuit 15.3 hands, and Kentucky Derby winner, Mine That Bird, approximately 15.2 hands. Gun Runner is 16.2 hands. Secretariat appeared larger because he had a deep chest with a huge girth.
How are you gonna get an allowance race to fill? The SA Derby is his prep for the Preakness.
Cave Rock isn’t definite for the SA Derby. We’ll know on Wednesday.
Hi Steve – Good to see Disarm work an easy .50 half at CD today only 9 days after his 2nd in the LA Derby. He will likely be out of the top 20 after 3 more 100 point races this weekend. Disarm is lightly raced and may have to run again to assure a derby spot which he deserves. Maybe he will run in the Lexington to sew up his derby spot. As you said Steve, you would have preferred one more start before the derby for Disarm and maybe he will go in the Lexington. How do you feel about Disarm possibly going in the Lexington Steve? I agree with you and believe Slip Mahoney will have a big shot in the Wood Memorial this weekend. I’m glad to have bet him at astronomical odds of 130-1 in KDFW6. I bet him to win and boxed him with Forte,Derma Sotagake,KingsBarns, and Disarm. The son of Arrogate is versatile and has proven to run a strong race closing or being up close and tactical. Slip almost beat Tapit Trice which is a feather in his cap. I’m glad to have added Slip Mahoney to my KDFW lineup with Disarm and KingsBarns.
I doubt he’ll run again. Sometimes the 100 point races eliminate more than they add.
Keep the faith, 1JoeP. There’s always a great deal of attrition in the weeks before the Derby. Keep your fingers crossed that Practical Move, Raise Cain, and Tapit Trice win on Saturday.
Hi Roberta – keeping the faith is always a good thing to do ! I agree that that several horses are likely to defect on the weeks leading up to the derby, so Disarm still has a good chance to make it with his 40 points even though he will probably be a bubble horse after the 3 preps this weekend. Hopefully Tapit Trice and Raise Cain both finish in top 3 in the Bluegrass because they are already in. Cave Rock should win or get second in the SA Derby along with Practical Move who is already in. I like Slip Mahoney to pass Disarm on the board and hope for him to run in top 2 in the Wood. There could be a couple of horses in the Lexington to leap frog Disarm, so we really won’t know how he stands with his 40 points until after the Lexington. I hope Disarm does make it because he is already at CD and revving up his engine for the big One in Louisville. Maybe he will run in the Lexington to get more points himself, time Will tell.
So many possibilities. I’m so excited!
Oops. I thought Raise Cain was headed for the Wood. Looks like he’ll be entered in the Blue Grass vs Tapit Trice.