2023 Derby Rankings – Week 2
We had a minor shakeup in Week 2, due in good part to a sloppy track at Oaklawn Park, resulting in some disappointing performances, and of course we had the emergence of yet another Bob Baffert bullet, as we lead into what promises to be an action packed weekend on both coasts. ~ Steve Haskin
Derby Rankings: Jan. 30, 2023 – Week 2
By Steve Haskin
1—Forte (Todd Pletcher, Violence – Queen Caroline, by Blame)
He had his second work back, breezing an easy half in :51 2/5. We know he can beat you in many ways, winning by open lengths with strong stretch runs and fighting it out to the wire. He seems to have no weaknesses and can handle any kind of surface. All that is left right now is making the transition from 2 to 3, which we won’t know until he runs, and how far he wants to go. So let’s go to his pedigree. His sire Violence, a son of Medaglia d’Oro, was on his way to stardom, winning graded stakes at 2 on both coasts, but suffered a fractured sesamoid in his second-place finish in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, his only defeat in four career starts. Violence is a magnificent-looking horse who has already had success at stud. Forte’s dam, who won five minor stakes in Maryland and Indiana, is by Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Blame, who is making a name for himself as a broodmare sire. Third dam Kew Garden is by Seattle Slew, out of multiple graded stakes winner Jeano, a daughter of Fappiano, out of Delaware Handicap winner Basie. This female line traces though three generations of top-class Phipps/Wheatley breeding to the Colonel Bradley mare Baby League, dam of Horse of the Year Busher, and finally to Baby League’s dam, the iconic La Troienne. Forte also has Secretariat in his pedigree three times, Dr. Fager twice, and Damascus once, as well as three English Derby winners. In short, Forte will run as far as they card races.
2—Arabian Knight (Bob Baffert, Uncle Mo – Borealis Night, by Astrology)
What to do about these (temporary?) Baffert horses? One thing about watching them win, you know they’re going to very early in the race. It didn’t take long to realize that Arabian Knight had the Southwest Stakes field at his mercy. Not only did he, like the vast majority of Baffert horses, skip to an uncontested lead at 2-5, he had John Velazquez riding high in the saddle and doing everything effortlessly. He turned back a brief challenge from 46-1 shot Frosted Departure and then opened up in the slop, winning by 5 1/2 lengths over a fast-closing Red Route One in typical Baffert fashion. I still don’t like this colt’s action the way he paddles his left leg, but it certainly doesn’t affect his performance. He’s just plain faster than anyone else. We won’t know if his main threats simply didn’t handle the sloppy track or they’re just not in his league. What we do know is that Arabian Knight and others will have to leave Baffert’s barn by February 28 to be able to earn Derby points if Baffert doesn’t win his hearing this Thursday to get an injunction that would allow his horses to run in the Derby and get points. As for his pedigree, he is a complete outcross through his first five generations. His fifth dam is by Accipiter, a son of Damascus, and he has Dr. Fager in his female family three times. So we have yet another lightly raced Derby horse who likely will have only four career starts before the Run for the Roses. We know he handles the slop and can set solid fractions and come home his final sixteenth in :06 1/5. We just don’t know what he beat on Saturday with the sloppy track.
3—Cave Rock (Bob Baffert for now, Arrogate – Georgie’s Angel, by Bellamy Road)
Now that we’re heading into February and the major action is about to pick up he needs to show up on the work tab in order to assure us he is well and on schedule. We’ll keep him hanging around the Top 5 for one more week, but it is looking more and more like he will run out of time. Like with stablemate Arabian Knight It’s too early to tell if he is a need the lead type of horse and how far he can carry his speed. We know he also is incredibly fast, having demolished his opposition in his first three starts and running seven furlongs in 1:20 4/5 in the Del Mar Futurity. So what can we expect to see this year? Looking at his pedigree, it is interesting to note that his sire and broodmare both turned in two of the freakiest performances anyone has ever seen when it comes to carrying speed a distance. We’re talking about Arrogate in the Travers and Bellamy Road in the Wood Memorial, both of whom had speed figures busting through the roof while winning by the length of the stretch. Arrogate’s sire Unbridled’s Song was another brilliantly fast horse who could carry his speed (seven furlongs in 1:21 2/5) a distance (1 1/8 miles in 1:47 4/5). Also note that one of the most dominant Kentucky Derby winners was Barbaro, whose sire Dynaformer is the maternal great-grandsire of Cave Rock. Dynaformer is by English Derby winner Roberto, who crushed the previously undefeated Brigadier Gerard in the Benson & Hedges Gold Cup in course record time. Finally, Cave Rock’s fifth dam, Town Ad, is by a son of Triple Crown winner War Admiral, out of a dam by Kentucky Derby and Belmont winner Middleground. So this is a family filled with brilliant horses who can carry their speed, with plenty of connections to classic winners.
4—Practical Move (Tim Yakteen, Practical Joke – Ack Naughty, by Afleet Alex)
We really won’t have a good idea who he is until he gets on a plane and breaks loose from the Baffert Brigade that he has been battling in droves every race. He has held his own, getting placed first on a disqualification in a maiden race and soundly beating a trio of Baffert horses in the Los Alamitos Futurity. Just think, if he hadn’t been put up on a DQ he might still be trying to break his maiden, although Yakteen might have said the heck with it, let’s put him in the Los Al Futurity as a maiden. His pedigree is not that revealing, but he has enough balance top and bottom to combine good miler’s speed with classic-winning stamina. He is by the fast and classy Practical Joke, who was strong going seven furlongs, one mile, and 1 1/8 miles in top company, out of a miler-type mare by Preakness and Belmont Stakes winner Afleet Alex. His second dam is by General Meeting, a graded stakes winner by Seattle Slew, out of an Alydar mare. His fourth dam is by Dr. Fager’s son Dr. Blum, who won or placed in 11 stakes in New York. So, while this is a solid pedigree that suggests distance will not be a problem it doesn’t tell us that much more about him that we don’t already know.
5—Cyclone Mischief (Dale Romans, Into Mischief – Areyoucominghere, by Bernardini)
Here is a great example of what you’re looking for with Into Mischief on top. Cyclone Mischief’s dam is by the top-class Bernardini, winner of the Preakness, Jockey Club Gold Cup, Travers, out of a half-sister to 2-year-filly champion Composure and West Virginia Derby winner Ready Set, by Belmont and Preakness winner Afleet Alex. Third dam Party Cited is by two-time Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe winner Alleged. And talk about a blast from the ’70’s, racing golden age, Cyclone Mischief has all three Triple Crown winners, Secretariat. Seattle Slew, and Affirmed in his pedigree, as well as Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner Spectacular Bid. Now that’s what you call four aces. No trainer wants to win the Kentucky Derby more than Dale Romans, who grew up a few blocks from Churchill Downs and is still in the same barn as his father, for whom he worked for when he was just a kid over 40 years ago. Cyclone Mischief tuned up for the Holy Bull Stakes with a five-furlong drill in 1:01 2/5.
6—Instant Coffee (Brad Cox, Bolt d’Oro – Follow No One, by Uncle Mo)
I had been hung up on his speed figures, but watching his races again he looks like a tough honest horse who likes to win. He had been running mediocre 7 1/2 and 8 1/2 Thoro-Graph numbers but made a big jump to a 2 1/2 in the Lecomte Stakes, so it looks as if he is moving forward the right way. Bolt d’Oro has become one of the hot young sires, on the track and at the sales. Of course being by the ageless Medaglia d’Oro, whose offspring are still selling for big numbers, out of an A.P. Indy mare doesn’t hurt. He should not have any problems with distance, as his broodmare sire Uncle Mo is a Derby-winning sire, and Uncle Mo’s sire Indian Charlie is the broodmare sire of Flightline. Now we do have to add that Instant Coffee’s dam and second dam were mediocre sprinters, and his third dam was three-for-19, but did manage to finish third against the boys in the 1 1/16-mile San Felipe Stakes and produced the classy million-dollar earner Lady Apple. His fourth and fifth dams were unraced, but his fifth dam is out of a full-sister to Affirmed. And returning to his second dam, she is by Belmont winner Empire Maker, who is by Kentucky Derby and Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Unbridled. Finally, breeders should latch on to Instant Coffee because he is a rare outcross though five generations.
7—Tapit Trice (Todd Pletcher, Tapit – Danzatrice, by Dunkirk)
This colt made a quantum leap into the rankings this week in anticipation of his next race, which will be in an allowance race on Saturday, as Pletcher decided not to rush him into stakes just yet. He really caught my eye watching his first two races based on his overall appearance and demeanor, as well as his fluid action, the huge extension of his stride, and the way he drops his head and levels off in the stretch. This is a bold move putting him up this high, but he just has a look of class about him, and with his pedigree and the length of his stride he will get better the farther he goes. His Brisnet speed figures are impressive, jumping from an 85 to a 96, with 99 late pace figures in both starts, which indicates a strong and consistent closer. His Beyers also showed big improvement, going from a 73 to an 87. In his first start going a flat mile, he broke to the outside, dropping far off the pace. He was still sixth at the quarter pole and then closed through a narrow opening, which I liked to see. He was too far back to catch the leaders, but was running strongly to the wire and continued to gallop out strong in an excellent debut. In his next start, also at a mile, he broke last and trailed the field before moving up steadily and settling in seventh. This time, however, he showed a good turn of foot, unleashing a big move while circling the field five-wide before hooking up with Slip Mahoney turning for home. The two battled the length of the stretch with Slip Mahoney bumping Tapit Trice, who outgamed him to the wire to win by a neck. And we saw how courageous Slip Mahoney is when he came back to win last week, refusing to be passed by the Pletcher-trained Crupi. It’s still early and he has a lot to prove, but he has two strong flat miles under him and one can see why he sold as a yearling for $1.3 million.
8—Giant Mischief (Brad Cox, Into Mischief – Vertical Oak, by Giant Oak)
This horse has looked so good visually, displaying a powerful turn of foot and the willingness to fight in the stretch and come out on top, that I have overlooked the speed that inundates his male and female families. I no longer believe for obvious reasons that Into Mischiefs are a question mark going classic distances. But I still prefer to see stamina in the female family. Giant Mischief’s dam Vertical Oak won or placed in 11 stakes at six furlongs and her only other stakes placing was at 6 1/2 furlongs. Vertical Oak’s dam also won or placed in 11 stakes, all of them sprints. But there is a little stamina to fall back on. Broodmare sire Giant Oak was a top-class horse mainly at 1 1/8 miles, but did finish second in the 1 1/4-mile Hawthorne Gold Cup and third in the 1 3/4-mile Breeders’ Cup Marathon. Giant Oak’s sire Giant’s Causeway was best at 1 1/4 miles in Europe and was beaten a neck by Tiznow in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Giant Mischief also has the stamina-laden His Majesty, a son of Ribot, in his male and female family. So you can make of that what you wish. It’s not an ideal classic pedigree, but horses today seem to go farther than their pedigree might suggest if they have the mind, and this colt seems to have that attribute.
9—Signator (Shug McGaughey, Tapit – Pension, by Seeking the Gold)
If you feel bloodlines was even partly responsible for Flightline’s greatness then you’re going to love this guy. If you rely heavily on speed ratings to influence you you’re not going to like him, at least not now. If you go by the visual aspect of a horse’s performances then you’re going to like him. I gave you the visuals last week, and now I can add that his Beyer, Brisnet, and Thoro-Graph numbers have been slow, although the Thoro-Graph numbers are not that bad for January and an improvement of just three or four points will put him right there where he belongs. As for his pedigree we must start with Flightline, who is by Tapit and whose fifth dam is the Phipps-bred Blitey though her daughter, Grade 1 winner Fantastic Find. Signator also is by Tapit and his third dam is Blitey through her daughter, grade 1 winner Furlough. So both Signator and Flightline share the same sire and trace to the same mare through their grade 1-winning half sisters. They also are both inbred three times to Mr. Prospector. Blitey is by Riva Ridge, champion and winner of two legs of the Triple Crown, out of Lady Pitt, champion and winner of two legs of the Filly Triple Crown. Lady Pitt is by Horse of the Year and Belmont winner Sword Dancer. Lady Pitt won the CCA Oaks, so she, along with Sword Dancer and Riva Ridge all won the third and most demanding leg of their respective Triple Crowns. Speaking of the Belmont, Signator has an amazing eight Belmont winners in his first five generations, not to mention Tapit, who has sired four Belmont winners. So I’m not going by speed figures at this early stage, because I feel this colt, with his pedigree and strong mechanics, is only going to keep improving.
10—Banishing (Brendan Walsh, Ghostzapper – Dowager, by A.P. Indy)
He has to be considered a bit of a question mark until he gets over the cuts he suffered before last week’s allowance race that forced him to miss an important prep race, in which he would have been a big favorite. We’ll see if he’s recovered enough to show up on Saturday. As I mentioned last week he seems to have all the physical tools and does have good bottom for such a lightly raced horse. And he covers a lot of ground. From a pedigree standpoint he has three Breeders’ Cup Classic winners in his first two generations – Ghostzapper, Awesome Again, and A.P, Indy. His second, third, and fourth dams are all stakes winners and his fifth dam is by Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe winner Vaguely Noble, one of the great stamina influences. His female family also includes top stamina influences Buckpasser, Round Table, and Hail to Reason twice, so he is another with enough stamina top and bottom to get classic distances with no problem. All he has to do now is get back on track and find a good spot for his return…and fairly quickly.
11—Dubyuhnell (Danny Gargan, Good Magic – Wild Gams, by Forest Wildcat)
My big question with him is how he will do on a fast track, as his only two victories have come in the slop, including an off-the-turf maiden race. His career debut was an OK race finishing a non-threatening fourth behind Instant Coffee. I believe the proverbial light bulb went on in midstretch of his second race when he switched to his right lead and quickly shifted to another gear, blowing by the leaders and drawing off impressively with his ears pricked. I loved the way he was striding out at the end. It was bold move then putting him in the 1 1/8-mile Remsen Stakes, and you had to love the way he hooked a tough competitor in Arctic Arrogance and out-fought him the length of the stretch. His 1 3/4 Thoro-graph number was the fastest of any horse from this crop, including Forte and Cave Rock. He is nominated to Saturday’s Holy Bull Stakes and we’ll see if he runs and if he can step up in competition and duplicate his form on a fast track. His name even showed up in the early Saudi Derby entries. From a pedigree standpoint, he’ll get plenty of stamina from his male side. His dam was a top-class sprinter who won seven stakes all at six furlongs, but his tail-female family traces to the Greentree-bed Cohoes, who could sprint in top company or run long, winning the Brooklyn Handicap and Whitney Stakes. Cohoes is best known for siring the Belmont and Travers winner Quadrangle.
12—Red Route One (Steve Asmussen, Gun Runner – Red House, by Tapit)
He ran a bang-up race to finish a fast closing second in the Southwest Stakes at 15-1, and I believe if he didn’t have a horrendous trip in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes he would have won or at worst been a close second. Intent on bypassing sprints with him they ran him twice on grass to start off his career. In his first race at Saratoga going 1 1/16 miles he got caught behind and agonizingly slow pace and was beaten 4 1/2 lengths, coming home in a swift :23 and :06. He then showed up in a mile race at Kentucky Downs and that gave him a ton of bottom over a very deep, undulating course and long stretch, as he drew off to win by 3 3/4 lengths. Thrown into the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity for his dirt debut he rallied along the inside after changing leads late to finish third, just edging out Instant Coffee for the show spot. He then finished a well-beaten fifth in the Street Sense Stakes in the slop, but was bounced around like a three-cushion billiard shot going into the first turn. In the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes he was trapped the entire race and was unable to get out when Instant Coffee went by him with a clear outside run. Turning for home he was “crying out for room,” as the track announcer said. He tried to ease out twice but was bumped each time, knocking him back behind a wall of horses. He tried to make another run, but there was no room inside or outside. He finally found a small opening inside the sixteenth pole and shot through. He rallied strongly to be fourth, beaten in a four-horse photo for second and 1 1/2 lengths for all the money. In the Southwest, he dropped some eight lengths behind the next to last horse before unleashing a big late run five-wide. He jumped back to his left lead in midstretch and still flew home on his wrong lead to finish a clear-cut second. Dirt, grass, slop, traffic, bumping, he has seen it all.
13—Disarm (Steve Asmussen, Gun Runner – Easy Tap, by Tapit)
He continues to progress in his training, breezing a half in :49 3/5 at Fair Grounds. Again, I’m taking a real shot with him considering he’s had only two starts and hasn’t been farther that seven furlongs. But he did make a good impression in his last race, with his Beyer speed figure jumping 20 points from a 68 to an 88, his Brisnet figure from a 76 to a 91, and his Thoro-Graph number from a 15 3/4 to a 6 1/4. Those are all dramatic leaps forward and I’m banking on seeing another jump when he goes two turns. By Gun Runner, out of a Tapit mare, he has royal blood up close and I love that his only inbreeding is in the fifth generation and it is to Fappiano three times. The Fappiano sire line is arguably the most potent in the country, and Disarm traces to him through his sons Unbridled, Quiet American, and Cryptoclearance, the last going through Cryptoclearance’s grandson Candy Ride, the sire of Gun Runner. What I found interesting about his tail-female family is that his fourth generation sire is by the seldom seen Crimson Satan and his fourth generation dam is by the seldom seen Jaipur. And Jaipur and Crimson Satan finished first and third, respectively, in the 1962 Belmont Stakes and first and second in the Jersey Derby, separated by a nose.
14—Victory Formation (Brad Cox, Tapwrit – Smart N Soft, by Smart Strike)
He turned in his second work since his victory in the Smarty Jones Stakes, breezing a solid half in :48 3/5 at Fair Grounds. There are so many horses you can round out the rankings with, but there is something to be said for being undefeated, especially at three different distances and winning by open lengths twice and gutting out a photo after a hard-fought battle. His sire is a Belmont winner and his paternal grandsire Tapit sired four Belmont winners. Broodmare sire Smart Strike sired 12 champions, four Breeders’ Cup winners, and two classic winners. Victory Formation also is inbred three times to Seattle Slew. Once again we have his fifth generation sire and dam being by Jaipur and Crimson Satan, the one-three finishers of the Belmont Stakes. So there are plenty of classic influences in his pedigree.
15—Blazing Sevens (Chad Brown, Good Magic – Trophy Girl, by Warrior’s Reward)
He had his second three-furlong blowout at Payson Park. There is no rush with him, as he has enough bottom and experience at 2, and Payson Park’s surface should get him fit fairly quickly. Although his pedigree is solid enough and distance should not be a problem, there is nothing too exciting about it, as he is inbred four times to Mr. Prospector. Good Magic has been a presence so far on the Derby trail with two sons in the Top 15 and others knocking at the door. Broodmare sire Warrior’s Reward’s only stakes victory came in the seven-furlong Carter Handicap, but he did place in the Jim Dandy and Dwyer and he is by Medaglia d’Oro, out of a Seeking the Gold mare, and his third dam is by Graustark, out of a Princequillo mare. Blazing Seven’s fourth dam Hortensia was a top-class filly in France who won the Prix de l’Opera. We will just have to sit on him for a while until his works pick up and Brown maps out a schedule for him.
KNOCKING ON THE DOOR
JACES’S ROAD and CORONA BOLT were big disappointments in the Southwest Stakes, but we really don’t know if they are not as good as they looked in their previous start or simply couldn’t handle the sloppy track. Did Brad Cox lose two of his big Derby hopefuls already? There is nothing to do now but see where they show up next and if they can improve off their dismal efforts. It was a shock to see the only horse posing a threat to Arabian Knight at the top of the stretch being FROSTED DEPARTURE, a mediocre sprinter who had already run nine times. He actually hung on well to finish third, which does raise the question about how legitimate this race was under the conditions. Frosted Departure’s stablemate, SUN THUNDER, who finished fourth in the Southwest, was considered a far better Derby prospect.
Remember when Bob Baffert used to win all those big races with what he called “ham sandwiches?” Well, this year he’s dining on a 10-course feast from Baluga caviar to filet mignon. The menu reads as follows: Hejazi ($3.55 million), Arabian Knight ($2.3 million), Newgate ($850,000), Faustin ($800,000), Fort Bragg ($700,000), Carmel Road ($650,000), Arabian Lion ($600,000), Cave Rock ($550,000), National Treasure ($500,000), and Harlocap ($400,000).
My vote for trainer of the week goes to Ryan Hanson, that’s right, Ryan Hanson, who prevented Baffert from becoming the only trainer in memory to have every starter in a stakes race, or likely any race for that matter. With Baffert having four of the five horses entered in Sunday’s seven-furlong San Vicente Stakes and running three, it didn’t scare off Hanson, who entered Man Child even though the last time they went up against three Baffert horses in the American Pharoah Stakes Man Child was beaten 24 lengths at 72-1. The other cupboards in Southern California must be awfully bare of 3-year-olds to allow Baffert to run amok in every stakes, but at least this trainer’s got chutzpah. Oh, wait, Santa Anita lists four horses for Saturday’s Robert Lewis Stakes and all four are trained by Baffert. Ryan Hanson, where are you?
As for the race itself, it went pretty much according to script with the far more accomplished and experienced HAVNAMELTDOWN going wire to wire and holding off the impressive maiden winner FAUSTIN by 1 1/2 lengths in 1:22 1/5. Both horses went off at even-money and basically ran around there in a paid workout. While the winner looks like a superior sprinter, Faustin, who is by Curlin, should be better suited to two turns.
Catching up from last week, the Leonatus Stakes at Turfway Park, which Rich Strike put on the map last year, was won this year by FUNTASTIC AGAIN, who now has back-to-back impressive wins over Turfway’s synthetic surface. Trained by Wesley Ward, the son of Funtastic did beak his maiden in an off-the-turf dirt race by 6 3/4 lengths, but was well beaten in the Breeder’s Futurity at 40-1, a race that was way over his head. He no doubt will remain on Turfway’s road to the Derby.
Add another name to Bob Baffert’s legion of 3-year-olds. HARLOCAP, a son of Justify, out of a Bodemeister mare, broke his maiden on January 22 going 1 1/16 miles following two second-place finishes. As the even-money favorite he went wire to wire, winning by 4 1/2 lengths and getting an 85 Beyer speed figure. He is an efficient mover and I like the way he kept opening up without being asked when challenged. In his previous start he had to take up sharply in tight quarters going into the first turn, dropping back to fourth, and then rushing up to challenge for the lead. He opened up a two-length advantage at eighth pole, but his early problems caught up to him and he was nailed near the wire. With his maiden victory out of the way he could prove to be a sleeper in the Baffert barn.
Also last weekend at Fair Grounds, the Upstart colt CAGLIOSTRO gave trainer Cherie DeVaux a nice winner when he broke his maiden by 3 1/2 lengths, breaking awkwardly and dropping back to last and then circling the field four wide.
The hard-knocking ARCTIC ARROGANCE tuned up for Saturday’s 1 1/8-mile Withers Stakes, breezing five furlongs in 1:02 3/5. He likely will face the Brad Cox-trained HIT SHOW, who was scratched from the Southwest Stakes. As a point of interest, they are calling for temperatures of well below zero for Saturday and much warmer for Sunday, so we’ll see if NYRA reschedules the Withers for Sunday.
Another Brad Cox-trained colt, VERIFYING, runner-up in the Champagne, had his first work at Fair Grounds since his impressive 5 1/4-length score in an allowance race, breezing a half in :49 1/5. The son of Justify is right on the edge of being ranked in the Top 15.
With the Kentucky Jockey Club form now looking as if it might be better than originally thought, we have to throw the runner-up CURLY JACK into the mix. Another son of Good Magic, he boasts enough credentials in six starts, at distances from 5 1/2 to 1 1/16 miles, to be considered a legitimate Derby contender. After a brief freshening he has returned to the work tab at Fair Grounds with a pair of easy breezes for trainer Tom Amoss.
The highly touted EXTRA ANEJO could be back training in the not too distant future, but making the Derby looks like a huge longshot for the son of Into Mischief, who won his only start last October at Keeneland by 9 1/2 lengths under wraps for Steve Asmussen before suffering a setback.
There is a good 1 1/16-mile maiden race at Gulfstream Monday afternoon, featuring a pair of Todd Pletcher horses. We will update later in the afternoon if warranted.
Racing historian, author, and award-winning retired journalist for the Daily Racing Form and The Blood-Horse, Steve Haskin was inducted into the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame’s Media Roll of Honor in 2016. Known for his racing knowledge and insightful prose, he has been an exclusive contributor to Secretariat.com since 2020.
I, for one, didn’t see this coming…..
Beyers for the Robert Baffert Stakes yesterday….
Newgate 100
Hard To Figure 100
Worcester 98
Arabian Lion 92
Which is on par with the BC Juvenile….Forte (101) Cave Rock (99) National Treasure (96)
Or about the biggest Beyer prep race in February I’ve seen in a while.
Wow. If this is anything close to reality then Baffert earns kudos
It wasn’t a dirt race, but….MAN, Genius Jimmy looked good, Saturday! (Santa Anita)…Blinkers on and lasix…..but wow! Set legitimate fractions, from the 10 post….they were really spread out down the backside….that usually signals a closers race—nobody gave Jimmy the memo, he set sail down the lane, and coming back he was not wet…and looked like he would be challenged, to blow out a candle! 1:46 4/5 you-za! Something “tells” me…..there’s Derby fever going around…..
Charge It returns in style. Phew, you never know.
Taiba, Country Grammer, Art Collector, Defunded and Newgrange will have hard times contending with the 3/4 brother of Flghtline…
Nelson, you’ll have to get them at the same place at the same time. Ha ha Pletcher has already stated Metropolitan and Whitney for Charge It. Taiba and Country Grammer are heading to the Middle East then may be seen later around September. Defunded and Newgrange will knock heads in the West while Art Collector can pick and choose from there. Perhaps, Proxy but avoidance is the aim of the game and share the spoils.
I am so happy for you Davids and the connections.
Always a wonderful feeling when the horse one is so fond of and that we never give up on, returns to the track and wins!
Thanks Lynda but the happiness goes to Whisper Hill Farm. When you invest so much into thoroughbred racing/breeding it’s gratifying to see these type of returns. Whisper Hill could have a banner year and good luck to them.
Yes, very happy for Mandy and agree looking like a good year for her.
I would think Newgate, (winner of the Robert B. Lewis) has to be included somewhere in the Week 3 Derby Rankings.
Possibly, in the top 10. He rated well, making a strong move in the stretch, to prove best of Baffert’s four entries.
Not sure what Beyer number he received, but he received an Equibase Speed Figure of 102, which is quite high.
Has he jumped ahead of Cave Rock? Probably not.
My current top Derby Dozen
1) Hit Show
2) Forte
3) Arabian knight
4) Cave Rock
5) Tapit Trice
6) Practical Move
7) Newgate
8) Signator
9) Instant Coffee
10) Reincarnate
11) Victory Formation
12) Giant Mischief
Bill, he got a 100 Beyer. Pretty snappy.
Thanks for that Beyer number Ms Blacktype. That 100 Beyer has to be one of the highest Beyers awarded to a horse from this year’s crop of 3yr. olds. It will be interesting to see if Steve mentions Newgate’s Thoro-Graph progression.
I thought in two more strides Newgate would have finished 2nd.
One of those Woulda, Coulda, Shoulda situtations. 🙂
Cave Rock returned to galloping last week. I cannot find that he has had any timed workouts.
Sneak peek at a couple of Beyers from today tucked into drf write-ups: Rocket Can got an 82 for his Holy Bull win, which seems kind of low, and General Jim got a 90. I’ll be interested to see the figures for Tapit Trice, who ran his mile in 1:36 1/5. The mile time for the Holy Bull was 1:38 and change.
92 for Tapit Trice.
Thanks, John!
Emmanuel was also a good graded winner today on turf at Tampa Bay, broke the 24 year old track record for 1 1/16 f. He could probably also try dirt if they wanted to, he started on dirt last year and was a KD prospect but didn’t perforn that well in the preps. Major Dude, also an impressive winner on turf today, may try dirt according to Todd P. What a well turned out colt he was, heading toward the starting gate, looked head and shoulders above the rest, won going away and is also a Bolt D’Oro offspring. He had a graded win last fall but got 9th in the Breeders Cup Juvenile turf after being bottled up on the rail or blocked somehow. These horses I mentioned may all be trained by Todd P., but they’re individuals in their own right, and 2 of the 3 I mentioned surprised with strong wins.
Yes, Discopartner, it was good to see Emmanuel running so well today (he’d been on the shelf for at least six months, according to the wrap-up I read). And Major Dude is a really good 3YO — very convincing win. I’d like to see some of the 3YO dirt stakes horses do as well.
Emmanuel was one of my favorites. So good to see his return to the track!
Congratulations!
The best looking race horse in my eyes today was King’s Fortune in race 5 at Gulfstream. He won a 3 yo maiden race as a first time starter, was not favored, a long, leggy Bolt D’Oro offspring, won going away on tapeta, subbing for turf. Maybe he’ll go on dirt now. First horse for this ownership group but the names sound familiar.
Niall Brennan is a pin hooker, prepares horses for the auctions and runs a training center in Ocala.
A number of successful race horses are graduates of his training center (example: Essential Quality, Early Voting).
Niall Brennan has broken and trained horse for the Phipps family, Jenny, such as Orb, Point of Entry, Data Link etc; Kobe’s Back, Palace Malice, Revolutionary, Nyquist etc, Bob Baffert has trained quite a few from Brennan’s consignments over the years. If you follow the sales, Brennan Stables is well known.
Davids, I checked out King’s Fortune on Brennan’s website.
He is a very impressive looking colt.
His dam is Royal Ocean who was bred and raced in Australia. She is by Fastnet out of a Giant Causeway broodmare.
Spendthrift Australia purchased her at auction in Australia.
This colt looks very much like Giant Causeway. He has that same massive hip and he has beautiful walk out (there is a video of him).
I read down the list of Mr Brennan’s “success stories” and is very lengthy with many, many well known racehorses.
Was curious if King’s Fortune is the first horse he has raced?
I could find no record of one.
Won on his birthday. Thanks for the info.
Sorry, Lynda, my knowledge of Brennan is through the success of others who have believed in his attributes. Mike Ryan is another who has often bought horses from Brennan’s consignment.
Thanks Davids
There’s a lot of Fastnet Rock in King’s Fortune, perhaps more so than Giant’s Causeway.
I visited Niall Brennan’s website per Ms. King’s post and watched the video of King’s Fortune. He certainly is an impressive looking colt and has a beautiful athletic walk. I agree, he does look a lot like Giant’s Causeway, with that powerful hip. He’s also got the long and leggy build of his sire with the dark chocolate coloring. Loved the move he made in the stretch and powered past the other colts with his ears pricked at the end. Seemed like could have easily gone farther.
Rachel, I think we will see good things from this colt. All the pieces are there!
Saw an upclose photo of Rocket Can after winning today.
My goodness but that colt has a gorgeous head and those eyes.
Lots of width between his eyes too..always an indication of intelligence.
Doesn’t have all that hardware in his mouth either, just a racing snaffle.
Congrats to all the winners and their connections today.
And such an unusual and lovely roan color. He definitely looks like he has a future if he stays healthy.
Charge It returns in a canter, easy victory. Where from here is the next question?
Nothing came out today that will change anything with regards to the KD….even the Baffert situation. Unimpressed with the races at SA and even GP, and even the ‘sub’ races at these tracks.
Going forward it means a little more than look at these three year old leaders with workouts such as today (Saturday)
Forte….50.61 for 4 (21/31)
Hejazi..100.2 for 4 ((19/67)
Count me in on the Tapit Trice bandwagon. While Bill Mott’s duo of Rocket Can and Shadow Dragon impressed in the Holy Bull — despite dreary speed figures — Tapit Trice looked like an emerging star. I am also pleased that Newgate got his first stakes winner, even if it was against his own stablemates. We still don’t know very much about the Baffert horses really stack up — except that Arabian Lion is no longer in the mix.
Now on to the UNC-Dook game. My preference there is clear.
You wouldn’t want to be cynical about the Robert B. Lewis Stakes but the most expensive colt gets a Graded stakes win which will be a bonus for future resale kudos. Shocking, to think like that about racing.
Davids, I just hope the Santa Anita Derby isn’t the same way.
Don’t worry about that, Ms Blacktype, the Santa Anita Derby is a prestigious race by itself as well as being an instant entry into the Kentucky Derby. If those runners are the only entries from California expect a flood from the East but it simply won’t happen.
Ms Blacktype, I agree about Arabian Lion. I think his talent is as sprinter.
Not sure yet about Triple Trice. Have to see how he does in graded stakes (in agreement with Davids comment below).
The one who impressed me today was Red Carpet Ready, the filly. She extended her win streak today. After a bobble at the start she recovered and responded beautifully when asked.
Rocket Can and Shadow Dragon look very promising for Mr Mott.
Interesting that Oscar Performance is throwing dirt prospects.
Army Mule stands for 12,500 but his first crop is bringing good prices.
Newgate is interesting. Just my opinion but he is somewhat inconsistent. Frankie D might have made the difference. I counted 8 owners for the colt. He has the pedigree to go the distance and I like the fact there is no inbreeding through first 5 generations.
Looking forward to next week’s Derby rankings from Steve. Not going to try and predict what he will do, LOL.
Lynda: Red Carpet Ready was impressive, wasn’t she? And you summed up Mott’s 1-2 finishers just right: they are promising — not world beaters yet.
Another impressive filly yesterday was Cairo Consort who won the Sweetest Gal turf race at GP yesterday for Mike Repole and Todd Pletcher.
After the race Mr Pletcher said they might try her on dirt next time out.
Question: Where will Steve have Tapit Trice listed in Derby Rankings Week 3?
I’m guessing Tapit Trice will be listed at # 4.
Granted, he has yet to face Stakes company, but the way he won that AOC race at GP on Saturday, 2-4, he stamped himself as a legitimate Derby contender. Next race, Tampa Bay Derby?
Steve, I can see you’ll be busy amending your Derby Rankings. Shadow Dragon looked good prior to the race in the Holy Bull a ran accordingly might be a dark horse to follow. Tapit Trice is obviously on the improve but still to face stakes competition.
Ms Blacktype for you:
Arthur’s Ride
Notes Tapit grey colt 22
Activity type Entry
Activity date 02-11-2023
Track Gulfstream Park
Surface Dirt
Distance 1 Mile
Race number 10
Purse $84,000
Race type Maiden Special Weight
Post position 3
Jockey Prado E S
Thanks for finding this out a week in advance, Davids, and from the other side of the world, no less. What did you think of today’s races for 3YOs? Or have you had a chance to see them?!
Obviously from you comments above, you have! My mind is like a sieve anymore.
Tapit Trice, I’ve always been high on but the acid test is stakes competition. In the Holy Bull, from viewing, I thought Shadow Dragon and West Coast Cowboy might surprise. Shadow Dragon, I’ve noted beforehand.
Cyclone Mischief looked too heavy, Rocket Can impressed before and after the race. Gulfstream Park isn’t Churchill Downs so it’s hard to determine what you’re actually seeing.
Cyclone Mischief is a case in point about stakes competition. He’s built like a sprinter. I hope Romans backs off and tries that route before pushing him to go a distance again — I know he desperately wants to win the Derby. Gotta do what’s best for the horse.
That was my first reaction as well, Cyclone Mischief didn’t have the easiest of trips but he’s not for me.
Rocket Can wins the Holy Bull, he closed at 121-1 in Derby Futures Pool 3. Hmmmmmm.
Shadow Dragon 2nd. 1, 2 for Mr Mott.
Hard pass!
Tapit Trice wins with ease as expected. Where from here now?
Tapit Trice, is a legitimate contender on the Derby Trail.
Impressive closing power … 12 3/5 for the last furlong at 1:36 2/5 is very respectable time.
The son of Tapit would be even better with faster breaks… his Achilles’ heel is being slow leaving the starting gate
Let’s see how the Holy Bull horses do comparatively… tough to top TT performance today !!!!
Yes indeed, very impressive performance by Tapit Trice. More than likely, Pletcher will be working him from the gate to improve that problem. The next question, which stakes race will Pletcher point TT for his next start. Forte, who appears to be the numbere one colt in his barn, is pointed to the Fountain of Youth on March 4th, in which case Pletcher might consider the Tampa Bay Derby for Tapit Trice’s next start. We’ll see.
correction TT logged 12 1/5 for the last furlong… equivalent to 12 30/100
Sooner or later, a Tapit colt is going to win the KD, this could be the year. He closed at 45-1 in Derby Futures Pool 3.
I boxed him with Hit Show (77-1) in my exacta wager. Should Tapit Trice win the Derby and Hit Show finishes 2nd, my Pool 3 exacta wager will pay me $26,598. Fingers crossed. 🙂
That would be a big hit… Hit Show will be showing his stuff next week…Hope he wins big as well…good luck!
Thanks Nelson
Needless to say, I’m looking forward to the Withers Stakes, just to see how Hit Show performs going 9 furlongs.
From my perspective, Hit Show has one of the best pedigrees, if not the best pedigree, to be super competitive at the Classic distance.
Indeed…! Candy Ride also deserves a Derby winner.
and Tapit as a broodmare Sire should be something too…
Thanks so much for your evaluation and commentary. Always exciting to read about the three year olds on their way to the first Saturday in May. Good health to them all. So many I have to catch up on with their races on replay.
Be warm and safe I’m reading how very cold it is in the east.
Posted on Secretariat website today:
Born on this day in 1941, the late Bill Nack wrote with passion and fluidity in “Secretariat: The Making of a Champion.” In one sentence, he encapsulated the young chestnut’s maturation as a 2-year-old:
“Sometime in late June and July of 1972, Secretariat woke up as a racehorse, ceased being an overgrown pumpkin of a colt, and began to like the business of racing: to get with it when the gates opened, pumping the legs and the neck and tracking the leaders for a while and then–once the legs began to mesh and the rhythm took over–picking up speed, grabbing the bit, and racing hell-bent past them for the wire”.
Happy Heavenly Birhday Mr Nack.
With the Withers Stakes rescheduled for February 11th, the entries will be redrawn on Wednesday, February 8th.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Brad Cox opts out with Hit Show, and points him elsewhere. He’s been working lights out at Oaklawn Park, the latest a bullet 4 furlongs, in 1:00.40, 1/50, on 1-28. Sooner or later he’ll probably have to face Baffert’s best colt (Arabian Knight), who is entered in the Rebel Stakes on Feb. 25th. Why not keep Hit Show at Oaklawn Park, enter him in the Rebel, and see how he stacks up against Baffert’s best colt moving forward on the Derby trail?
Obviously, this is pure speculation on my part.
Cox said he is re enteing.
So be it.
Thanks for the reply Steve.
He has Giant Mischief for the Rebel, possbly Victory Formation (or Risen Star) and Angel of Empire. As you can see from his workout he is ready to run right now. Even next week is a bummer for him, never mind Feb. 25.
All good points Steve.
Why is it I think Giant Mischief had a big performance coming up?!!..
Hi Bill…!
Who do you like in the Holy Bull? Is Cyclone Mischief vulnerable or too fast for them?
Lord Miles got blinkers and Irad… perhaps these changes is what he need to show all his talent tomorrow.
He was awfully wide coming to the stretch and then erratic while closing strongly in the Mucho Macho Man. He was the one with the strongest gallop out…10 more yards and he’s be the winner…!
Lord Miles offers great value at 5 to 1 in my view. He we will be my key horse in the Holy Bull.
Hey Nelson
I beleive the odds maker has it right, Cyclone Mischief is the colt to beat in the Holy Bull, at 2-1.
He has shown the ability to carry his impressive speed of a distance of ground, as he showed last out, in that one mile, 75K AOC, finishing in 1:36.48, drawing off by 5 3/4 lengths.
For whatever reason, he lacked response in the late going of the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, so Romans put him on the shelf for a while. Tyler Gaffalione appears to be a good fit aboard Cyclone Mischief, and will remain there for the Holy Bull.
So, to answer your question, I believe Cyclone Mischief will win the Holy Bull, and move on to the Fountain of Youth.
Thanks for the reply Bill.
I just hope Luis Saez and Legacy Isle won’t become a hindrance to the chances of the son of Into Mischief.
Good luck this week end…
You’re welcome Nelson, and good luck to you as well.
BTW, regarding this weekend’s races, the race I’m looking forward to is the 8th, at GP.
Pletcher’s two colts, (Tapit Trice and Shesterkin) appear to have a bright future. Of the two, I’m leaning towards Tapit Trice with Luis Saez in the irons.
Steve’s remarks around the unhelpful lack of experience of some Derby hopefuls made me review the track record of runners with 3 career starts before D Day during the last 22 years.
But before I show the results, and to lay out some perspective, I would like to share a table showing the average starts of Derby winners as 2-year-olds, 3-year-old starts before the first Saturday of May and their total starts before retirement. I will show average starts by decade starting with the Golden SEVENTIES.
AVERAGE STARTS PER DECADE AND FINAL CAMPAIGN FOR DERBY WINNERS
Decade…. Starts before Derby…… 2-yo-starts……….3-yo-starts……Total Campaign
70’s………………..13………………………………8.9…………………….4.6………..….26.1
80’s………………..9…………………………………6……………………….3.3………..….20.5
90’s………………..9……………………………..…5.2…………………….3.8………..….19.4
2000-2009……..6……………………………….…3…………..………….3.1………..….12.1
2010-2019……..5.8………………………………3.2…………………….2.6………..….11.4
2021-2022…….. 6 …………………………………3……………..……….3………………10
Three starts as a 3-year-old before the Derby seems to (understandably) be the norm.
Noteworthy is the decline in the average 2-year-old starts from 9 to 3. Also down is the total career starts (from 26 to 11) during the last 50 years. As reiterated here, top horses are running less now (beyond their 3-year-old age). That is what happens when the horse racing transitions from one owner having 100 horses to one horse having 100 owners and the finish line is substituted by the bottom line…!
Anyway, back to the rookies …
As for the lightly raced winners of the Derby (since 1970), Big Brown and Justify were the only ones with 3 total starts before May. Animal Kingdom had 4 career starts before taking the Derby.
For the last 22 years I gather 14 other horses with a total of 3 pre-Derby starts: Charge It (17th ), Zozos (10th), Sainthood (11th ), Helium (8th), Rock Your World (17th), Soup and Sandwich (19th ), Money Moves* (13th), Hofburg (7th ), Patch (14th ), Materiality (6th ), Dunkirk (11th ), Summer Bird (6th ), CURLIN (3rd ), Showing Up (6th ). China Visit with only 2 starts finished 6th in 2000.
We see that not even the mighty Curlin was able to win the Derby with 3 career starts.
As a disclaimer I should restate that stats don’t make the horse, it is the other way around. These figures are merely base lines to use as starting points to differentiate Derby prospects.
Having said that, it seems sensible to expect a horse with more than 4 starts before the Derby to have an assured advantage to win it…
Thank you Nelson, excellent information.
My research, though not as detailed shows the same.
There have been on going discussions on racing blog sites (including Steve’s), horse racing forums and in FB groups that I belong to as to the root causes for diminished field sizes znd canceled race cards for lack of entries.
Your information is one of causes for this trend at the race tracks.
I have been working on it for several days amd hope to have it ready in a day or so.
My pleasure Lynda…
It is a complicated topic you and your groups are trying to elucidate.
I should emphasize that the figures belong to Derby winners and participants exclusively. I am not sure we can translate them to what is, for instance, happening in California w.r.t. horse population.
Great topic for discussions though…!
Not to forget that Bays have won 38.74%, Chestnuts – 32.43%, Browns – 11.49%, Gray/Roan – 5.41% of all the Kentucky Derby races. Ha ha
Nelson Maan, that’s an outstanding analysis. Looks like two winners from a small sample is actually pretty good. And if I’m not mistaken, both winners were the only undefeated favorites from that group going into the derby gate. So 2 for 2 on that count.
Plus, one was a Florida Derby winner (YAY!) and the other was a Santa Anita Derby winner. Surprise surprise!
Thanks Roberta.
It would be a sample of 16 horses who entered the Derby with only 3 previous starts. So the strike rate is 2 winners out of 16 tries this Century.
Rock Your World, Materiality, and Curlin were all undefeated in 3 starts coming to the Derby.
As you implied, it takes a freak to win the Derby with limited racing experience…
It most certainly does take a freak to win the Derby with just three starts under its belt. I was referring to favorites in the derby that were undefeated. So, of those, the record is two out of two. Correct?
Undefeated, 3 starts, favorite, that is.
Noted
Impressive bit of research, Nelson! Trouble is, it all points to the fact that trying to figure out which horse will win the Kentucky Derby is even more difficult now than it was only 10 years ago. One day, all 20 horses will be so unprepared that the winner plods home in 2:14. I hope not soon.
Thanks Ms Blacktype. I appreciate it!
You reminded me of the 20 Derbies (1980 -1999) after Spectacular Bid without a single favorite winning it. In contrast with that period is the one from 2013 to 2018 with all favorite taking the Roses.
Your are right that there are at least 6 horses not prepared for the huddle but there will always be a handful of hopefuls with great quality while asserting for dominance.
That’s what we live and breathe for! FWIW, my pick for the Holy Bull is Lord Miles, who comes from a stellar female family. Cyclone Mischief’s female side is honorable enough (3rd dam is a Grade 3 winner), but I like the thicket of recent, high quality stakes winners around Lady Esme (Lord Miles’s dam) including 2017 2YO filly champion Caledonia Road and Officiating, who won Grade 3 stakes in 2021 and 2022. Could Lord Miles be next?
FYI, Here are the current Circa odds for Steve’s top 15. I just returned from Tuscany location to press a few.
1. Forte +800
2. Arabian Knight +650
3. Cave Rock +4200
4. Practical Move +9000
5. Cyclone Mischief +4500
6. Instant Coffee +2000
7. Tapit Trice +3000
8. Giant Mischief +4000
9. Signator +5500
10. Banishing +6500
11. Dubyuhnell +12000
12. Red Route One +5500
13. Disarm +8500
14. Victory Formation +2700
15. Blazing Sevens +8000
Lots of high odds before the serious racing starts and the distances increase…
Greek to me, LOL.
My little list that I am following includes Forte, Arabian Knight, Cyclone Mischief, Signator, Banishing and Geoux Rocket Ride ( not on Steve ‘s list).
Hi Lynda:
You can get Geaux Rocket Ride at +12500….
I like your stable!
Thank you
Lynda:
Odds are for $100 wagered, so for current odds, just remove last 2 zeros! Geaux is 125-1
Got it! Thank you.
Practical Move and Blazing Sevens would be an attractive wager, at those odds..
You got to wonder if Churchill Downs secretly, quietly hopes they get overruled today and Baffert wins his appeal. Would be sort of embarrassing if Baffert’s owners don’t desert him and he wins a majority of the preps for the KD. Just a thought
Imagine the embarrassment if Baffert wins the appeal and then wins the Derby. Churchill does not want to lose this.
Could be an embarrassing either way for them
Saw that Baffert worked Taiba and Country Grammar on 1/29/23 5 furlong in 59.20 (wonder if they worked together). i think he is getting them ready for the Saudi Cup if so, Zedan will have a nice 1-2 punch for that race. It is scheduled for Feb 25th.
Both Taiba and Country Grammer received nominations to the Saudi Cup as the result of their stakes wins in December. Rich Strike has also received a nomination. As of this morning these three have not booked.
Quality Emblem, last year’s winner has already been booked.
Japan is sending 5 of their stars including Crown Pride, Cafe Pharoah and Jun Light Bolt (Ryan Moore booked to ride).
It is nice to see that the top horses in the ranking are sired by elite stallions (Uncle Mo, Tapit, Into Mischief, Ghostzapper) and by up-and-coming sires (Gun Runner, Arrogate, Bolt D’Oro, Tapwrit, Practical Joke and Good Magic). A leading sire not seen yet in the ranking is Curlin; Pletcher, Baffert and Joseph will be able to eventually promote some of their Curlin hopefuls into Steve’s ranking in the coming weeks. BTW Curlin had at least one son in the Derby in all his crops except for 3 of them. Finally, it was one of his sons who sired a Derby winner (Rich Strike by Keen Ice by Curlin).
A highlight from the ranking is the success of Good Magic’s first crop. It includes Derby hopefuls Blazing Sevens, Reincarnate, Curly Jack and Dubyuhnell; and last Saturday another son of Good Magic named Mage looked really good winning his 7-furlong debut at Gulfstream in 1:22.54. His trainer Gustavo Delgado took Majesto and the then maiden Bodexpress to the Derby via the Florida Derby.
Good Magic reminds me of Uncle Mo whose promising first crop included half a dozen prospects including Derby champion Nyqyist.
BTW Baffert’s last rising star, Faustin, got the same cross as that of champion God Magic (son of Curlin out of a Hard Spun mare).
I am quite partial to Signator’s family. Steve gave a complete and compelling analysis of his pedigree. Many of us expect Tapit to win a Derby before he is retired from stud duties. The last Derby winners produced by Phipps lineages were Super Saver in 2010 and Orb in 2013. Coincidentally both won on a sloppy sealed track… Providing Signator runs 2 or 3 more times he will be primed to a good show in the Derby…
Another pedigree analysis resonating with me is that of Cyclone Mischief by Into Mischief who is the most successful elite sire in the Derby (2 wins). Let’s see how Romans’ prospect states his case in the Holy Bull this Saturday where he has two strong challengers in Rocket Can (Into Mischief) and Lord Miles (Curlin).
Also interesting is Steve mentioning Cagliostro by Upstart the sire of top 3-year-old last year Zandon. His broodmare Sire, Hard Spun, was 2nd in the Derby and the fastest member of the best 3-year assembly of the 21st century. Other damsires at the female side of Cagliostro are Unbridled’s Song, Deputy Minister and Blushing Groom… they don’t need any introduction…
I added Cagliostro to my virtual stable at once… some times we focus so much on the recurring Derby trainers that we overlook new comers. But as you well know, there have been a lot of Trainers who won the Derby in their first attempt.
Nelson, you may be a little premature with giving Into Mischief 2 Derby sons. Authentic won in September, 2020 which should have an asterisk attached. Is the Medina Spirit attempt to regain the roses back battle over yet? There are so many disputes in racing at present I’ve basically given up reading the full report and just read the headlines. US racing is destroying itself within, those opposing racing don’t even have to lift a finger.
Tapits best chance to sire a Derby and Preakness could be this year. There are a dozen or so who appear to have the talent and, more so, temperament to be dominant threats. Why Essential Quality didn’t win the Derby is still a puzzle. Tapit’s chances of of siring a Derby winner may decrease rapidly by the hands of his own sons. Constitution had some very impressive sons at the sales last year and should only improve from there; Essential Quality and Flightline will be given every opportunity to succeed so the competition will be fierce.
Signator has been spotted by many, myself included, as a threat in the Derby but he is yet to win a stakes race. Let’s hope that disappointment is not around the corner. Who trained Greatest Honour? Memories.
Cagliostro was an expensive son of Upstart, $385,000, and selected by David Ingordo so he’s been on the radar for a while. His win a few weeks back was as impressive as he looks. Good Upstarts are as racy looking as they come. This son shouldn’t find 10f a burden. Is he a Derby horse though?
Since the Withers has been rescheduled for a week from Saturday perhaps Bob Baffert can turn his attention away temporarily from SA and Oaklawn and fly two or three of his level B, C or even D horses back to NY and put the fear of God into locals there…and .I’m sure that the NYRA officials will let bygones be bygones and greet B, if he chooses to travel, with open arms and maybe a garland of roses at the JFK International.
Hmmm …. Interesting … Is the entry box going to be re-opened for that race?
Don’t really know. I actually wrote these comments with a bit of ‘tongue in cheek’ and satire. But if there was an open door it would interesting indeed.
I recall, with great detail, when the Gotham was rescheduled due to a nor’easter approaching Long Island late in the week. NYRA did race on that Saturday, following the storm, but moved the Gotham back a week. This was done to appease Woody Stephens, who had already shipped favorite Devil’s Bag up to Belmont from Florida, but refused to run as scheduled.
The race was redrawn at normal entry time the following week, as if nothing had occurred prior. Except….. Woody then shipped his colt to Keeneland for the Forerunner Stakes & Derby Trial, which he both won. Although Derby favorite, his career was over with chipped knee.
The “next Secretariat!”
Just read the entry box will be re-opened and entries will be taken on Wednesday. Weather on Feb 11 looks to be in the 40’s with rain in the forecast. Not sure if Baffert would want to send any of his horses into that but you never know.
As I recall Devil’s Bag had already shown distance limits, but they did anoint him!….Easy Goer was also hyped, he was really good……Hoist the Flag…Roving Boy….A P Indy and Eskendaria were might have been Derby Winners…I’ll Have Another probably would have won the Triple Crown..
Covid, sending the Derby to September, stole the Derby away from Tiz the Law, no question.
Eskendereya is the one that I had huge hopes for. I still think he would have done great things if he’d had the chance.
Absolutely. Quality Road is another, he would have got away with the 10f in May. I Want Revenge is another.
I love your posts, BUT. …I’ll have to say no and no, to both! No to Quality Road being able to withstand Derby pressure and 10 furlongs….no to Jeff Mullins’s horse, who ran that big number but was due for a bounce….in the “Luck” story he “is” that obnoxious cowboy character. ..
Ha ha I just think Quality Road had his best chance of winning at 10f in May but you make a fair point. With I Want Revenge, it’s a tossup really but I liked the horse.
Was that the character that Gary Stevens played. “Luck” was just getting extremely interesting, addictive, when they pulled it. Possibly, the best racing tv show made.
Yes Luck was terrific! They “had” to stop it because three horses broke down….the “supposed” Mullins character was the trainer who wore a cowboy hat was obnoxious….I thought Steven’s acted pretty good, with Nick Nolte, who was able to draw tears, talking about the great stud who got whacked, referring (probably) to the Alydar story….by far the best Horse Racing venture, they got into many angles, of the sport…
Yes agree, Gary Stevens could have made a very successful acting career if started earlier. The best film I’ve seen from Nick Nolte was in “Affliction”. Disturbing film on human conflict from childhood and it’s impact in later life.
Totally agree about “Affliction”, which was hard to watch, I identified with much of the story, having had a detached father and grandfather, which caused massive familial suffering..
Matthew, the same with me. Extremely, distressing to watch the film. The flashbacks in the film…
In December, 1983, Devil’s Bag was syndicated, led by Seth Hancock’s Claiborne Farm, for $36 million the highest price for any two year old in the history of racing. You wouldn’t want him to flop returning as a three year old…
True, but there was a bit of embarrassment involved, anyway, even if it was happy embarrassment. After touting Devil’s Bag up to $36 million, Seth went ahead and won the Derby himself with Swale. Some felt that he was selling them the wrong horse.
Swale was a favorite, his sad demise was heart wrenching. No doubt Woody Stephens would have known which colt was going to be the better 3 year old.
It certainly was heart-wrenching, and after that tragic event less than two months after the Derby, I’m sure the buyers were happy to have the live horse. But immediately following Swale’s Derby there was some head shaking.
Baffert had been sent packing from AQ before the ban, his shippers were beat bad in recent years, might have given up on the idea.
Saturday Aqueduct card canceled as expected. Withers will be run Feb. 11.
No Aqueduct, rain at Gulfstream Park, and ‘nothing much’ at Santa Anita has certainly put a dampener on the Derby Trail. Here in Melbourne, during February the temperature can easily sore to 105. Today it’s hovering around 50f with the heater on. Crazy.
In a word, “discombobulated”. Just cannot seem to get my head around any of these colts other than Forte though I do see potential pedigree wise in several on the list.
Seems to be a slow start this year and the shadow hanging over Baffert adds to the drama.
Could it be the continuance of what seems to be a trend to hold out for the 50 point races?
Have to agree Steve, Baffert does have a ten course feast to choose from this year.
I think if he loses his latest appeal, most of the Derby hopefuls will be farmed out. Last year Zedan held put to the last possible minute on Taiba but when it came crunch time, he was handed off.
70% chance of rain for Gulfstream on Saturday (rain starts after midnight on Friday).
Good luck to all on your bets and safe races.
It is a shame there will be rain at GP on Saturday; really like; a first-time turfer in Race 5; the #3; 12-1 ml, but don’t think race will stay on the turf…
biggy, it has been monsoon season here (southeastern US) for weeks.
The pattern has been rain with temps in 50’s to 60’s and low around 40.
When the rain clears out the temps drop in the low 40’s day and mid 20s at night.
Was, rinse, teoeat.
It is pouring right now, been raining all day and will rain all night.
I know I have mud from mid December. Not enough sun to dry it up.
I was looking at the long range for the Risen Star and rain is possible on one site.
I guess the up side is that we will get a good idea as to how many mud guppies we will have in the Derby.
Texas by the way is getting snow as is my home state, Virginia.
Hi Steve
Any current word on Aqueduct’s Saturday race card? You mentioned that the Withers might be rescheduled for Sunday ( due to extreme cold weather). Per forecast reports, Sunday should be much warmer.
Thanks Steve.
No word yet. Just got the advance from NYRA and no mention of the forecast.
Thanks Steve.
Geaux Rocket Ride debut was pretty solid! Dueled from the rail vs a Bob B horse, and then spurted away with quick strides—maybe not the long strides of a two-turn horse—it’s hard to tell—he showed some good speed in the stretch, 1:09 2/5 and it’s good to see Mr Mandella has a three year old!
Watched a replay of the race. He won by seven lengths. There were two Baffert horses in the race. The one GRR was dueling with is ownedby Jill Baffert. The colt is by Candy Ride out of a Uncle Mo daughter whose dam is Storm Cat line.
His pedigree certainly says he can stretch out. Saw the speed figure somewhere, a 92 I think.
Papa Mandella is one of my favorite trainers. Hoping he can take this colt to Kentucky.
I think he might look at Sunland, might try to dodge Bob……maybe Preakness, as a rule Mandella does not ask a horse this early….
Sometimes a colt or filly makes an impression on me and GRR did.
Time will tell if he progresses.
For what it’s worth the official winning margin was 5 3/4…..
Hey Steve. I was impressed by Capture the Flag when he won his maiden at Saratoga for Shug M. I have not seen anything about this horse since however, and there are no recorded workouts from him last I checked Equibase. I have to assume that we will not be seeing this horse on the derby trail. Have you heard anything ?
I have also been looking for him but nothing so he obviously is out of the picture.
Disarm put in a sharp work at 5F at the FG today for his possible next start which could be the Risen Star on FEB 18. Disarm went at 5 1/2 and 7F as a Juvenile Maiden to start his career. He would be leaping to 9 FG in the Risen Star and hopefully he is ready for the challenge. I really am high on him and and glad to have bet him at 45-1 in KDFW2. I see that Verifying is also listed as possible for the Risen Star. Hopefully Disarm will continue to train well and strut his stuff in the Risen Star.
Great to have you back Steve.
Baffert seems to be really high on Faustin. Wish he had a better jockey, but I think he will be in your top 10 eventually!
So do I. Baffert’s top horses will get the top jockeys. If he runs big next time going 2 turns baffert will get him a top rider…if hes training him .
Doesn’t Johnny Velasquez ride Baffert’s best prospect?
Yes, I just said he will get a top jockey, not necesssarily JV.
The Baffert saga makes it difficult for the jockeys as well. They could lose a top ride by riding a Baffert horse that might not get to Churchill Downs due to lack of points etc.
I know it has nothing to do with the preps this weekend but according to the DRF Cave Rock, as I had mentioned earlier, is now out galloping at SA but does not have a set workout or ‘breeze’ scheduled AND time, according to Baffert maybe running out for CR for the Rebel – which was B’s plans for the horse.
Practical Move did have a workout on the 28th…1.00.2 for 5 (9/60) and impressed trainer Yakteen.
Taken a face value I still don’t know what to make of Forte’s recent works (5/5 and 31/31) with the FOY a goal (5 months from the BCJ).
Regarding horses lined up for this weekend’s Robert Baffert Stakes aka the Baffert Invitational Arabian Lion just worked on the 29th going 58.4 for 5 and 1/73 that day at that distance.
Well, Steve, by the end of the week there should some clarity on whether Baffert’s colts stay with him or they will depart and, moreover, whether Aqueduct’s Saturday card will take place. The answer to both questions will probably be in the negative so the guessing game will continue. For me, it spoils the rhythm of the Derby trial, discordant notes ruin harmony. With that in mind, I’m a little hesitant to get too excited on the better Baffert runners.
Besides thoroughly enjoying reading your Derby Rankings every week, while watching the shifting sands of your numerical order, alternating on a weekly basis, I have a list of ten Tapit colts that I monitor. I still have Signator on top but that may shift if Tapit Trice shows the expected improvement on Saturday. Besides the Tapits, there are quite a few inexperienced colts I like but have yet to prove their quality. There is nothing better in passing time than reading racing speculation by your contemporaries. Agreeing and disagreeing makes life interesting.
So, if the Derby was to be run this Saturday who would win? – Forte. Next weekend cannot come too soon. Charge It’s return to the races at Gulfstream on Sunday is the highlight for me. Thanks again, Steve, much appreciated.
I just wish the Holy Bull had come up with a few serious Derby contenders. Where are all the top Florida 3yos? And the Lewis is a wasted prep race. Baffert has the whole field and none of them are considerd among his top horses. Maybe someting will emerge. The Withers is the best race but that might not happen. So this could be a lost weekend. The best race could be the GP allowance.,
Steve, I agree with you about the Holy Bull race. No entrants by either Pletcher or Chad Brown. There must be a horse or two in there they fear. As far as Baffert horses in the Lewis Stakes would just say of those horses in that race it is too early to say none would be considered his top horses but if I am the racing secretary at Santa Anita I would be looking at all the 3 year olds stabled there and going to the trainers and questioning why aren’t you entering them into these stake races ??? O’neill , Sadler, Mandella, D’ Amato like you said what is going on !!! Especially with KD points on the line
BTW.. 3 horses I like in the HB , Lord Miles (get Irad Ortiz Jr.), Cyclone Mischief (another Dale Roman teaser ?), and Legacy Isle ( this race should tell us if he is the real deal )
When I say none of them are considered I mean now. They could at some point. I dont think any of those trainers have any good 3yos. I havent seen any of their horses with nice maiden wins. last year or this year. Mandella just had a first timer sprint winner that looks good but way behind.
Bob Baffert is not getting any younger, when he retires what happens to California then? Where or with whom do Baffert’s clients send their horses? East or to the California trainers that don’t have these type of 3 year olds now?
A lot of his clients will look eastward, but some want them in the west, some want to go out and see them run….but Bob should be around a while!
Richard Mandella is not far behind Bob Baffert, Doug O’Neil is relatively young but doesn’t seem to have the same cachet as Baffert. California needs new star jockeys and brash new star trainers. Santa Anita is one of the most unique, aesthetically beautiful, racetracks in the world racing needs Santa Anita.
I wouldn’t count out Baffert’s youngest son , Bode . he seems pretty interested in the horses. Unless Baffert is discouraging it. We will see what develops there. We could have another BB.
Europe could export a trainer or two, it’s very limiting there if you are not supported by the big stud farms.
That’s how I see it as well, Steve. An allowance could be the most important race toward the Kentucky Derby. The point system is creating an aspect that was not considered beforehand. Horses now only compete with one or two preps to get in the Derby. It has to be reconfigured. Preps for the major preps – Santa Anita Derby, Florida Derby, Blue Grass Stakes, Wood Memorial – shouldn’t give horses enough points to get in the Derby.
Let’s hope the Withers goes ahead. Speaking of Aqueduct, what do you think of the proposal to close Aqueduct down altogether with only Belmont standing in New York. With this happening wouldn’t they have to open Saratoga up for another meet? How can you maintain a major track without lengthy breaks?
Aqueduct is on borrowed time but they will have to rebuild Belmont which is a terrible cold weather track and I dont who is going to go all the way out there in the winter. . You can only push Saratoga so far and you cant go past Labor Day when vacation time is over.
Perhaps they’ll close a few weeks over Winter which wouldn’t be a bad idea but then there are obvious ramifications from doing that. You’re definitely right about no one going out to Belmont during Winter, you’d have to be a masochist. Lol.
New York racing used to close from December to March.
Thanks Steve, I’d forgotten that altogether. Just checked, Winter racing in New York started in 1975. There can be too much racing.
Is your top-ten Tapit List the same as mine?
1. Signator
2. Tapit Trice
3. Fort Bragg
4. Tapit’s Conquest
5. Tapit Shoes
6. Arthur’s Ride
7. Shopper’s Revenge
8. Silver Heist
9. Aristocracy
10. Congruent
Just about Nelson, but I have Whitewalker instead of Congruent who appears to me more a miler/turf, at this stage, than a 10f dirt horse. Whitewalker comes from a great family that achieves, particular at the Classic distances.
Game Warden is another on the cusp. Mindtap might return as well.
Whitewalker got a spectacular pedigree…Smart Strike and Dixieland Band are the most successful Derby Broodmare sires this Century.
I did think Whitewalker was going to enter the Derby trail as his trainer is not known for having the “fever”… but who knows? he is training at Gulfstream and could be winning his first race rather impressively.
It’s been a slow-burn by many trainers this year, could be a trend or just this crop. Building a momentum to the first Saturday in May is difficult when the highly fancied runners are reduced to minimal appearances. You’re used to that in Europe for the Epsom Derby but for the Kentucky Derby it drags from the anticipation.
Re: Gulfstream Park, 8th race, one mile, 75K, OC, Saturday 2-4
It would come as no surprise if the two Pletcher colts, (Tapit Trice & Shesterkin) finished 1,2 in referenced race. The only question, which one wins it. This could present an interesting scenairio for Pletcher moving forward for the Fountain of Youth.
He’s already stated Forte will run in the FOY, so where will he point the likely winner of Saturday’s race.
You would think he doesn’t want to run all three in the FOY, so the Tampa Bay Derby could be an option for Tapit Trice and Shesterkin. I trust Pletcher will make the right decision.
Pletcher said he was betweeen the allowance and the Holy Bull. I cant underrstand why Tapit Trice isnt in the Holy Bull, especially when he has Shesterkin for the allowance. But he does seem to need more gate work.
Forte just posted a workout three days ago….51.43 for 4 (31/31) and before that going 38.38 (5/5) ten days ago.
Bob takes a lot of heat, but I’m not sure if he has blame because the Lewis only drew four, he entered a bunch—and not his best– not sure what he did that was so wrong….I know you understand Steve…
Totally agree. It’s not Bob Baffert’s fault he is the desired trainer in California. I just wish he’d put one of his more ‘interesting’ colts in the race. It’s a real prep with points.
It’s not his fault no one wants to run against him. I think he enters so many horses to assure the race goes. But its not a good look for Califonia racing that they dont have any good 3 year-olds other than Baffert and Practical Move.
Practical Move, by Practical Joke.
Your top pick will be my Derby horse, if he stays healthy. Tapit Twice is interesting
I noticed Tapit Trice when he got up to beat the horse i had played after i thought i was home. Tapit Trice got left then appeared to have no idea what he was supposed to do, yet still got there. I don’t know if he’s fast or professional enough, but there may be something there.
Considering that Tapit Trice is not running in the Holy Bull Stakes means that there is still quite a bit of education needed before a Stakes attempt will be made. Exciting colt, let’s hope he for fills that promise
Any thoughts on Geaux Rocket Ride? He beat 2 Bafferts Sunday and ran faster fractions than Havnameltdown in the stakes race (the race before) at all calls. He ended up getting a 92 beyer and 115 timeform, which is really impressive for a Mandella horse (usually not fully cranked on debut). Bred to be a good thing.
I thought he was extemely impressive and isnt even bred to sprint, but if he had one more start I would consider him a Derby horse, but debuting at 6f in late January really puts him behind the eight ball and Mandella is the last person to rush a a horse to make the Derby.
Davids, Charge It returns to the track Sunday at Gulfstream Park where he has been in training.
Know he is a favorite of yours.
Yes, Lynda. This is the race for me on the weekend. Let’s hope the wait is worth it.
I liked that Red Route One was closing so well in the Southwest Stakes! Glad to see him make your list!
I watched Tapit Trices’ last race, a stretch battle with Slip Mahoney! Dead End Kid, Bowery Boys leader. So I looked at Slips’ last out 1/21 r9 Aqu. He prevailed in a total throw down with Crupi. Both Crupi and Slip will be worth watching going forward. Thanks for continuing the Derby Dozen+.
Arabian Knight was certainly impressive. I rode several horses that paddle and they remained sound so it is likely that won’t bother him. Red Route One did close well and looks promising.
Looks like Good Magic is starting off his stallion career with a blast.
No one paddled worse than Vekoma a few years ago and he was very good 3yo and won the Met Mile at 4. But thats as far as he got. I have noticed several who paddled run well, but dont have real long careers. Maybe just a coincidence. Good Magic is starting to look like this year’s Gun Runner.
Steve, Vekoma won his last three races at 4; two were G1, the Met and the Clark.
He developed a hoof abscess in August of his 4 yrar old srason which took him out of contention for awhile. He trained up for the BC Mile but spiked a fever just before the race and was scratched. He was retired to Spendthrift not long after.
After the Kentucky Derby he did not race for ten months but I do not know why.
As I said the Met Mile was as far he got and he needed a long vacation between 3 and 4.. Again, maybe just a coincidence but mostof the paddlers I’ve seen did not have long careers. This colt may, and I hope he does, but we’ll see how long he can carry this kind of raw speed.
Correction Carter not Clark.
Holy Bull field came up dreadful for a stakes. But not as bad as all-Baffert Robert Lewis field and not even his good ones. And Withers could be canceled with sub zero temps for Saturday. First big stakes weekend is awful. Where are all the real Derby horses? Main race could be GP allowance with Tapit Trice and Shesterkin. Cant imagine why Pletcher would run both and not run Tapit Trice in the Holy Bull for points, instead going in his third staight mile race.
Hi Steve
I was very disappointed to read that Saturday’s card, at Aqueduct might be cancelled. Brad Cox will have to figure out where to send Hit Show for his next start. He has three options to choose from, the Sam Davis, at TB Downs, on February 11th, the Risen Star, at the Fair Grounds, on February 18th, or the Rebel, at Oaklawn Park, on February 25th.
I’m thinking the Risen Star might be his best options.
Thoughts?
I was just anticipating the possibilty. I see it looks a little warmer now with highs around 12 to 15 with wind chills just below zero. So we’ll see. Aqueduct is right off Jamaica Bay so its aways colder there. I hope they run because the Withers is the best race of the day. Besides Hit Show I’m a big fan of Arctic Arrogance. Tough hard knocking horse. If not, Sunday is going to be much warmer ad sunny so maybe they can run it the following day rather than wait another week.
Thanks for the reply Steve.
Yes, Arctic Arrogance was tested for class in the G2 Remsen, finishing a close 2nd to Dubyuhnell.
Hit Show and Arctic Arrogance appear to be the top two in the Withers. Hopefully, the race goes off as scheduled, or on Sunday. We’ll see.
Not racing colts, that need points, in races that have points to get in the Derby is quite mystifying. You have as much chance of getting a bad trip in any race, and time is of the essence. One thing I’ve noticed in this crop is how most of the ‘expectant’ Tapit who may be Derby contenders were being developed at a slower rate than would be expected. Not entering 2 year old stakes races etc or just entered one or two races as 2 year olds. Too much cotton wool?
I like Arctic Arrogance as well but doesn’t seem to want to pass, hopefully, the blinkers will help. Arguably, the colt should really have won his last two races.
Steve, you know this but is missed in Practical Move’s information above. General Meeting was trained by David Hofmans. General Challenge and Excellent Meeting, both by General Meeting, were both trained by Bob Baffert for Golden Eagle Farm. You miss the Mabee horses.
Changed. thanks
Davids as a rule paddling or winging out on the forelegs is not an issue with a race horse. It is considered to be a conformation fault because most paddlers/wingers are pigeon toed.
Basically the lower leg, when flexed does not align with the top of the leg.
Most horses do learn to compensate.
Sometimes how much a horse paddles/wings can be reduced through shoeing and trimming.
These horses do wear down their hooves on the side quicker than horses that do not.
My App/QH mare winged out slightly her right fore but it never affected her performance nor did she ever receive any sort of injury 0n that leg.
Winging/paddling is quite common in some American Saddlebred, TWH, speed racking and other gaited horse breeds.
It is not desirable in dressage horses.
Thanks Lynda, interesting information on paddling within other breeds who have various gaits. Yes, I know only too well how undesirable paddling is in dressage. Quite a few teenage friends, manly female ha ha, would instruct on various faults their competitive ponies had, but not their own. Lol.
Davids, that is a no no…speaking badly about another person ‘s horse. Whete I come from that is the same is speaking badly about someone’s children. LOL
Ha ha Lynda, it’s alright they spoke with their hands covering their mouths. So discreet. Lol!! Lol!! Have you ever been to dog and cat judging. The venom spoken there is phenomenal and highly entertaining if you are not the subject to be derided. Ha ha
Davids, I have watched dog shows like Westminster. Talk about something being subjective, dog shows are! Almost as bad as halter classes for horses (Arabians).
It seems that the same breed wins the dog shows all the time.
My personal preference is the working breeds, Border Collies, Heelers and Australian Shepherds. Also like the LGD breeds like the Great Pyrennnes.
I read a couple of days ago that Denmark (I think it was) has banned ownership, sale, breeding and import of certain bulldogs..the ones with the flat faces and noses. The reason for the ban is the health implications associated with these breeds. They did grandfather in existing ownership.
Wire Fox Terrier, Beagle, poodles, Pekingese, Setters seem to win a lot. Last year the best bloodhound I’ve ever seen won at Westminster, gorgeous dog. I’ve always wanted an English Mastiff but with climate change and the soaring temperatures expected in the future the fear of heart failure has curbed my childhood desire. You have to be practical these days. English Pointers are a healthy breed and are more natural than most breeds.
Yes, the Blood Hound. Beautiful dog.
Have a few friends who show dogs (sporting dogs who are also trained to do what they were bred for) and they were thrilled!
Steve, was happy to see you look past some of the #s Instant Coffee has put up, and you did your homework on the breeding of this horse think there might be something special here, also thanks for showing the love for red route one, wow can this horse close, can’t wait to see what happens in there next races. Keep up the good work, it is cristal clear to me that you love what you do, and you are very good at it.
Thanks very much. I appreciate it
Nice yes- something special as far as the Tc and big races, i think he gets swallowed up once the major players hit the scene.
Nice yes- something special as far as the Tc and big races, i am not on board. I think he gets swallowed up once the major players hit the scene.
Steve, I meant to ask this on Saturday, was Arabian Knight’s paddling more extreme at Oaklawn than at Keeneland or was it the wet track more than anything else?
Same. Paddling is a horse’s natural action on any kind of track.
Thanks Steve, the action (paddling) did seem more extreme at Oaklawn than at Keeneland. At Oaklawn, Arabian Knight’s didn’t appear as those distance was of any concern but the paddling was more magnified. It may have been the camera angle from the different tracks. Who knows?
Davids, I am in total agreement with Steve that a horse who paddles/wingsout will do so on any surface; dirt, turf, synthetic, show ring, sawdust etc and I might add at all gaits.
However I do think your observation has merit. Racing in mud or slop is very tiring for a horse’s forelegs and requires the horse to work harder off the forehand. It stands to reason I think that the paddling/wingingout would be more noticeable under those conditions.
One thing that impresses me about certain racehorses is how well they run in the mud and slop. That more than anything else impressed me about Arabusn Knight.
Muddy, sloppy tracks have been the undoing of many potentially great racehorses; Riva Ridge comes to mind.
My observation of horses over the years has been that most of them do not like being hit in the face by rain, sleet, freezing rain or debris such as leaves and dirt in the wind or kickback from horses in front of them.
I think it as an instinct thing. The horse is a prey animal and have survived all these thousands of years because of their instincts and their senses ( sight, smell and hearing). They are only one of two domesticated species that have not had their instincts bred out of them (the other is dogs).
Our region that includes Louisville has been under monsoon conditions since the fall with no break in sight. It is entirely possible that we might have another mudslinging fest come Derby day like the year Justify won.
Yes, Lynda, it always amazes me the mud larks on dirt surfaces. I’d broaden your list of domesticated animals that still have their natural instincts. Cats, more than dogs, are capable of hunting prey to survive. Dogs when ‘dumped’ tend to scavenge rather than hunt, pigs revert fairly quickly to a wild state, goats, camels the same. Beef breeds of cattle would be fine but dairy cows might not.
Dogs quickly form packs that do hunt and go totally feral in one generation. We have a lot problems in rural areas such as where Iive with of wild dogs attacking both livestock and humans.
LOL, do not think cats have ever been totally domesticated. They are the free spirits of the animal kingdom and they just let you live in their world.
Yes, Lynda, it’s the same in Australia. Feral cats and dogs are an absolute menace killing of the wildlife. Rabbits, cane toads are another scourge. The other day a giant cane toad was discovered in northern Queensland it was almost 3kg. Cane toads, an introduced species in Australia, are marching their way to the beautiful untouched wilderness of Kakadu if they get there a world heritage will be destroyed. Tragedy by human folly.
Bob put four horses into the race so that there IS the race!..
Good question Matt W…. Churchill changes the rules seems like weekly … Stay Tune !!!!
If….they keep Arabian Knight with Bob, and plan for The Preakness ….if they win a major Derby prep are the points vacated?
Matthew W, I’m pretty sure that any Baffert trained horse that finishes in a position to earn points does not get those points. Those points go to Derby points heaven.
Not sure why this posted with your other post.
Good question Matt W…. Churchill changes the rules seems like weekly … Stay Tune !!!!
Thank you Steve for keeping up with this Derby Dozen every year! With some of these colts being lightly raced and others facing possible barn changes it is very challenging. I do note though in the past you have discussed paddling in other successful racehorses. Might not look pretty but if it gets the job done I’m okay with it.
Steve: Another wonderful stroll through some of the most promising Derby prospects, with interesting pedigree notes. It took me a long time to get through your post because I kept pausing to look them all up! Disarm is especially interesting because he’s a half brother to Tap Daddy, a stakes winner in the U.S. and winner of the Clásico Jockey Club de Venezuela, a Grade 1. Is that race considered the national Derby of Venezuela? I could’t quickly confirm it.
Disarm also hails from the same family (the somewhat obscure #26) as last year’s speedball Forbidden Kingdom.
Hi Ms.Blacktype – I hope Disarm lives up to his pedigree because I gave him at 45-1 in KDFW2. He is listed as possible for the FEB 18 Risen Star. I’m hoping he runs well if he goes in the Risen Star and stamps himself as a major derby contender.
Hi Ms Blacktype.
Tap Daddy ran 8 races in Venezuela winning 5 and 3 seconds. All in Grade One Stakes. He won the Clásico Jockey Club de Venezuela twice in 2018 and 2019. The most important Stakes in Venezuela is the Clásico Simón Bolívar which he won in 2018 and was second in the 2019 edition. It was a courageous effort losing by a head to a champion mare after suffering an injury in his left leg.
All his wins were very authoritative at distances of 1800, 2000, 2400 and 3200 meters.
I am not sure if he was named champion Imported horse 2019 but his credentials were enough to get that title… He is now a hyped Stallion in Venezuela … his first foals are yearlings this year.
Great info, Nelson Maan. What is the current state of racing in Venezuela?
Hi Roberta !
Despite the economic troubles of the Venezuelan population gambling on horse racing is still one of the favorites pastimes there. A never-ending problem though is the illegal gambling which is a source of wealth to a lot of corrupted rings. As you may suspect those groups got so much money that they can rig any race…
In terms of Thoroughbred qualities, Venezuela is (within the Central America and Caribbean territory) at the same level of México, Panamá and way above Puerto Rico, Ecuador, Jamaica, Dominican Republic and Trinidad.
South American countries like Argentina, Chile, Brazil and even Uruguay breed better horses than the aforementioned countries do..
Thanks, Nelson. It’s horrible what’s going on there.
Thanks, Nelson, I figured you or Davids would be on top of doings in Venezuela. Tap Daddy is certainly an impressive sibling for Practical Move to have.
Oops, I meant DISARM. I also have Practical Move on my mind. PM descends in tail female from La Toucques (1860) who won the French Oaks, French Derby and a Grade 1 equivalent in Germany in her 3YO year. Of course she’s something like his 14th great grandam, which is about what Thomas Cromwell is to me (my 13th great grandfather).
I haven’t worked with royalty or beheaded any queens yet. Give me time!
Steve I am a long time fan of your work.
You mentioned the possibility of Baffert having the only starters in the race yesterday.
I remember a few years ago at Saratoga in a turf stake there was a field of three and Chad Brown had all three. If I remember correctly Regal Glory came from last (third) to win the race.
Yep. Except it was prevalent this past summer at Saratoga. How many times was there a six field stakes race with Chad Brown having three horses entered and his three were the favorites….or how many times did Saratoga offer a five field stakes race on the dirt with Tddd Pletcher having at least two of the runners with at least one of them odds on?
This problem is not unique just to southern California tracks.
It’s not the same, the Lake George isn’t a prep. for a major event.
The Lewis is a prep for the San Felipe… it’s February 4th, 90 days from the Derby.
Ok if Baffert does not win in the courts this week. If any 3 yr horses he has in his barn are not transferred to another trainer by Feb 28th they cannot run in the Kentucky Derby. With that said and Baffert’s comment of AK needing time before race and his say ” I will be sending someone here (referring to the Rebel Stakes) I am not sure we will see AK in the Derby owners will leave Baffert remains to be seen. I am not sure Zedan wants AK with any other trainer. Baffert could probably run him in the Ark Derby and wait for the Preakness (more time between races) Baffert could also find races for Zedan (and other owner for that fact) other horses , SA Derby, Keeneland, Wood Memorial and possibly the Florida Derby (for some reason he usually doesn’t send a horse there). Can’t go to Louisiana Derby ….Churchill Property. ( a little trivia here… Only 2 horses have won the Louisian a Derby and then went on to win the Kentucky Derby…. some horse named Black Gold and Grindstone 1996 …. BRAD COX why are you training there???? Your horses ran miserable this past weekend !!! )
Have a good week !!!
i think he sends REINCARNATE there. He has been working well and they pulled him from the Robert Lewis.
Probably a good assumption along with a couple of others . He is so deep with 3 yr olds
Epicenter almost won it last year going through the Louisiana grinder
What are your thoughts about Lugan Knight?
Improving colt. Not sure why they sent him to the Churchill Downs training center so well see where he shows up next.
Thanks, Steve. I wondered what had happened to him
As always, great insight on these colts. Updating my spreadsheet after this week’s races.
Does anyone understand Bafferts suspension? I believe Churchill is the only track currently that has him suspended?? So his barn can run in the Preakness and Belmont without his horses changing barns?
Correct. Pimlico even said they welcome him. I dont even try to explain what Churchill Downs does.
Question. Are other race tracks owned by CDI included in the suspension such as Turfway Park and the Fair Grounds?
Yep, it applies to all CDI-owned tracks.
Yes, all the CDI tracks inclusive.
Hey Steve you mentioned BB’s horses except Reincarnate unless I missed it?
I only mentioned Baffert’s horses who ran over the weekend. Reincarnate was mentioned last week.
I anxious to see where Baffert will point Reincarnate for his next race. He’s had two good works since his win in the Sham Stakes on January 8th, but for whatever reason, Baffert choose not to run him in the Robert B. Lewis. He’s owned by the same ownership group as Newgate and Worcester, so that could have been the reason Baffert choose not enter Reincarnate.
Reincarnate, by Good Magic, out of Allanah, by Scat Daddy is certainly a colt to keep an eye on moving forward.
He is on a stong Thoro-Graph pattern and has really im.proved. Baffert is letting the Lewis just slide by. Now its either waitingg for the San Felipe or shipping out of town.
Thanks for that info Steve.
I think REINCARNATE will go to the Rebel. H e had a strong 4 furlong work in 47 and change.
Hey Steve – Glad you are keeping the faith with Disarm keeping him in your top 15. I would love to see him get some derby points soon and this might happen. I see that he is listed as possible for the 50 points to the winner Risen Star Stakes on FEB 18. He will have 2 more works at the FG before that race, so maybe he will enter. He has only won a MSW so far and he is coming off of a long layoff and will have to go 1 1/8 going 2 turns after previously going 7 F in his MSW romp. I am very high on him as you are and will be hoping he enters the Risen Star and runs well off of the layoff . I am glad to have gotten him at 45-1 in KDFW2. On a side note Steve, I haven’t seen Eddie comment lately. I hope all is well for him. His humor and insightful opinions add spice to the blog.
He hasnt commented in a long time, almost a year I would guess. He is missed. Good luck with Disarm.
There was a spat between Eddie F and another contributor on ‘commenting too often’ on this site.’ Last word from Eddie F was “Done.” Meaning he was leaving, forever.
Hello David’s – it’s a shame that Eddie left. He shouldn’t be disparaged by others by commenting a lot because his comments were insightful and used friendly humor.
I agree with you, Joe. Eddie’s light hearted humor especially helped to fill periods when there was little racing activity. Hopefully, everything is fine with him.
Thanks Steve, the winter blues get brighten by your great Derby analysis. Faustin appears to be the real deal in my eyes. Hopefully you can do a pedigree analysis in the soon future.
Next week, Jeff. Didnt have time to go into detail on him this week because of the Sunday post. I like him a lot. waiting to hear on a possible next start stretching out.
i like him too
Just some comments on California racing I am reading.
Some are blaming CHRB..that the authority and the State Capitol have chased trainers, owners and breeders away who are now located in Kentucky, Texas and other racing friendly states.
Heck, California does not want cows and dairy farms. Why would they want horse racing?
Santa Anita is prime real estate. Cha ching, cha ching, cha ching…you know the dollars signs are glowing in the eyes of real estate investors and the California treasury at the prospect of tax revenue and making investors wealthier than they already are. Not to mention PETA and other extreme animal rights groups.
I personally think it is just another red flag warning that horse racing is getting closer to its demise in the United States.
Well said Lynda, and I completely agree with you! I have the same feeling as you that horse racing….especially in California….is on the way out. We can’t even get more then 6 entries for a stakes race anymore!! And as you mentioned, the real estate that Santa Anita is sitting on is a prime target for real estate developers!! Very sad though….
They have been saying that for years. Horse racing isn’t going anywhere.
The city of Arcadia has a lot of money and owns the huge parking lot next door to Santa Anita. It’s one of the largest flat parking lots in America if not the world. Anyways, Arcadia has been rumored to want to develop the parking lot and the mall it services. But there is no actual plan in place. City of Arcadia is in no hurry and doesn’t need the money. What Arcadia needs is Santa Anita because of its’ history and because it’s part of the city’s identity. I believe Santa Anita will be around for a long, long time.
Seriously, if SA management was trying to make racing competitive then the Robert B Lewis would be an exhibition race with 1, 1A, 1B, 1X as the entries and would add another event onto the card so that punters can really have something to think about.
Afterwards Lanfranco might attempt an acrobatic dismount in the mounting yard and the media can take some visuals and show how racing attract fans….
It seems every year Bob has an even better group of three year olds! Doug says he avoids running against Bob cuz he doesn’t want his young colts to get badly beaten, so early in their careers….Bob also trains a 4yo named Hopper, who was caught the other day, in his first race in 7 months, at 9 furlongs….he is going to be a big player, for HOY…..my prediction!..
A little update…two Baffert horses worked yesterday (Sunday) at SA….Hejazi going 36.80 for 3 (6/16) and Reincarnate doing 47.80 for 4 (7/55).
i like REINCARNATE , HE IS A BIG STRONG LOOKING HORSE THAT LOOKS LIKE A THROWBACK TO THE IRON HORSES NOT TO MENTION HE IS FAST AS WELL. DEF ONE TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
Wonderful analysis, Steve. You have an amazing eye. My amateur eyes see Pletcher’s Shesterkin in an allowance race at GP on Saturday. I saw him close up in his debut maiden win on December 31. He’s a nice looker! As for your comments about Baffert in stakes races in California… Well, it’s not lady like to say but What the F??? He has all four entries in the Robert Lewis. Disgraceful!
I was impressed with Shesterkin, but with only the one sprint I decided to wait to see what Pletcher does with him. If he runs him Saturday then I would be surprised that Pletcher didnt run Tapit Trice in the Holy Bull . That would be two really good horses facing each other.
Steve, Tapit Trice is not entered in the HB. But Cyclone Mischief is!
Tapit Trice is entered in Race 8 at Gulfstream Park on Saturday, an allowance. Eagerly anticipated to see how he performs.
Roberta, are you attending again on Saturday, looks like another great card? Lucky you.
Hi, Davids. Yes, that should be a good allowance race between the two Pletcher colts. I like Shesterkin because he has good early speed. I’m a bit disappointed in the field for the Holy Bull, other than Cyclone Mischief. But there are a couple of upset possibilities like Legacy Isle, who’s very quick and would be undefeated but for the DQ in the Mucho Macho Man. Mr. Bob had a mess of trouble out of the gate in the same race.
Gulfstream is still fun because of the quality of the horses, but it ain’t what it used to be for someone who just likes to go for the live racing. I sure do miss that big grandstand. Nevertheless, at my age, the only thing that keeps me away from a Saturday at GP is a funeral. Ha! Or any racing day for that matter.
Yes, Roberta, when the old Gulfstream grandstand went so did a lot of the atmosphere, to a certain extent. Flemington, here in Melbourne, has managed to blend the old gracious surrounds with the new ultramodern – it works, beautifully.
The Holy Bull field lacks stardom but, by the end of the race, a new star may be born. With the Swale, Super Chow could put in an explosive performance, he looks promising. Hope you picks some winners, the weather forecast isn’t too promising but that’s days away. Have fun.
Yeah, beautiful all week…until Saturday. Ugh. Well, we’ll stay under cover, but every half hour or so we’ll get wet for a couple of minutes. Ha ha! I’d love to see Australia. Someday maybe. Will look at Super Chow. Enjoy!
Good luck, Roberta. I’ve been checking the weather every day and instead of improving on Saturday there seems more rain will come. You can’t win, Aqueduct might close on Saturday, Santa Anita hasn’t any horses, while Gulfstream looks as though the track will be a soup. Just as well, I’m used to disappointment and adapt accordingly. Ha ha I’m going to enjoy the races no matter what. Hope you have a great day, and win. Ha ha
I think I might live here in Melbourne forever now. Beautiful city, lovely, friendly people, excellent restaurants, coffee bars and you can walk around the city in safety, day or night without any fear. No guns.
Hi Steve
Thank you for providing an outstanding analysis on your top 15 colts moving forward on the Derby trail. I like the fact that you have Tapit Trice positioned at #7. He closed at 45-1 in KD Futures Pool 3, so he appears to be flying under the radar.
I have Tapit Trice boxed with Hit Show in my Pool 3 Exacta wager which would pay a $26,588 if Tapit Trice would win the Derby and Hit Show finished 2nd.
I can dream can’t I?
Good luck with that.