2023 Derby Rankings – Week 3
It was a strange weekend with the allowance winners taking the spotlight over the stakes winners. As a result we have yet another shakeup to the Rankings and even more confusion in this muddled Derby picture. Hopefully, things will start to clear up when some of top 2-year-olds make their long-awaited debuts. ~ Steve Haskin
Derby Rankings: Feb. 6, 2023 – Week 3
By Steve Haskin
1—Forte (Todd Pletcher, Violence – Queen Caroline, by Blame)
The New “Yawk” partnership of Vinnie Viola and Mike Repole normally spend big bucks for the majority of their sales horses, especially at the Keeneland September yearling sale, but sometimes they are willing to wait it out and look for an occasional bargain during the later, far less glitzy, part of the sale when thousands of yearlings have already been sold and most of the big buyers are long gone. So it was in 2021 when they waited until Hip#2035 on the last day they bought horses before finding the 2-year-old champion and early Kentucky Derby favorite for a measly $110,000, the fifth cheapest of the 43 yearlings they purchased at the sale. That is quite a difference from the $1.05 million they paid for a son of City of Light earlier in the sale. Now we just wait for the Fountain of Youth Stakes on March 4, which seems so far off when looking for new things to say about a horse.
2—Tapit Trice (Todd Pletcher, Tapit – Danzatrice, by Dunkirk)
My only mistake with this colt was originally having him at No. 5 and moving him to No. 7 at the last minute, feeling I may have gone overboard putting a maiden winner by a neck that high. I’m not making that mistake again. Yes, this was an allowance race, but I haven’t seen a stakes winner so far this year that has impressed me or looked more like a Derby horse than this colt, even Arabian Knight, who still has to show he’s not a one-dimensional speed horse. And raise your hand if you don’t think he would have crushed the field in the Holy Bull Stakes, in which the three-quarters was run in 1:13 3/5 and the mile in 1:38 2/5, while the allowance race was run in 1:11 4/5 and 1:36 2/5. Not only did Tapit Trice win by eight lengths, he opened up the eight lengths in the final furlong and kept going past the wire, galloping out strongly. Credit Luis Saez for getting him off the rail after a slow break and angling him to the far outside where he could use that big stride of his. It takes him a while to build up power so he has to be pushed along early, but once he gets in high gear he is a thing of beauty to watch. As I mentioned last week, he is a visually stunning colt who reaches out with great extension, yet his stride is so fluid it seems effortless for him. Pletcher said it was between the allowance and the Holy Bull, and I was hoping he would go in the Holy Bull. But no way I’m doubting Pletcher. Yes, he has to step up in class and face stakes competition, but from what I’ve seen so far that should not be a problem. When a horse can gut out one race and then win by eight lengths the next race you know he can pretty much do it all.
3—Arabian Knight (Bob Baffert, Uncle Mo – Borealis Night, by Astrology)
Another reason I put Tapit Trice ahead of him is stability, as we still have to find out if this colt will have to be turned over to another trainer on February 28. The word out of the Baffert camp is that he is the “real deal,” but most people already feel that way. There is no use predicting where he will run next because Baffert, if he remains his trainer, is the master of calling audibles at the last minute depending on a how a horse is doing at the time. Most likely it will be a return to Oaklawn for the Rebel Stakes or staying home for the San Felipe. Baffert often will send different horses to Oaklawn for their preps and the fact that he sent Arabian Knight there for an early prep off one maiden sprint he might not want to ship back there, possibly twice. I have mentioned his paddling action and although that shouldn’t affect his performance I have found that it can take its toll at longer distances later on. There aren’t many 3-year-olds that have dazzled us in stakes so far, so when you get one who has you have to take him very seriously. Looking at the other end, we also have to remember that his two main foes in the Southwest Stakes never ran a lick in the slop and the second and third-place finishers had won four of their 14 starts with one six-furlong listed stakes win. Also, his Thoro-Graph numbers regressed from a 2 1/4 to a 3 1/2 in the Southwest. If he stays in California we might not know how good he really is until the Kentucky Derby.
4—Practical Move (Tim Yakteen, Practical Joke – Ack Naughty, by Afleet Alex)
He continued his string of sharp works with five-furlong drills in 1:00 1/5 and 1:01 1/5 as he prepares to resume his assault on Baffert and then the Run for the Roses. Is anyone aware that this colt was bred by Chad Brown and Sol Kumin’s Head of Plains Partners? The last time Kumin saw him he was soundly beating two horses who are co-owned by Kumin — Carmel Road and Fort Bragg. So Kumin sold Practical Move for $230,000 and then watched him beat two horses he and his partners paid a total of $1.35 million for. This colt is a true stalker who is always in the hunt, whether they run the half in :44 1/5 or :46 4/5 or if the distance is 6 1/2 furlongs, seven furlongs, one mile, or 1 1/16 miles or if it’s at Santa Anita, Del Mar or Los Alamitos. At the half-mile call he’s been second, third, fourth, and fifth, and other than his career debut when he was four lengths back, he’s never been farther back than 2 1/2 lengths. So all this adds up to a very dangerous battle-tested horse who has excellent tactical speed and can rate off any kind of pace. You would expect nothing less from a horse who is by a Grade 1 winner at seven furlongs and a mile, out of a mare by a Preakness and Belmont winner who came within one length of sweeping the Triple Crown, and probably would have if he didn’t come out of the Kentucky Derby with a minor lung infection.
5—Blazing Sevens (Chad Brown, Good Magic – Trophy Girl, by Warrior’s Reward)
Now that he’s had three works over the deeper Payson Park surface he seems to be coming around as well as Brown could hope for and shouldn’t need a lot of works with his foundation. Looking at his races more closely there is a lot to like about him and I feel he should be moved up in the rankings. I like that he was able to win first time out going six furlongs at Saratoga and doing it eased up. I like that in his first two starts sprinting his Brisnet figures were faster early and slower late, but after stretching out to a mile and 1 1/16 miles they were slower early and faster late, with his last two late pace figures a 98 and 100. I like that his Brisnet and Beyer figures both were faster in his Breeders’ Cup Juvenile fourth-place finish than in his 3 1/4-length victory in the Champagne Stakes the race before. The only reason his Thoro-Graph number went from a 3 to a 5 1/4 in the Juvenile was because of his ground-saving trip. Actually, if Flavien Prat had stayed where he was, a hole opened up right in his path you could have driven a Sherman tank through. Instead he swung about six or seven-wide and was running strongly at the end down the shortened stretch. Also, Verifying, the Champagne runner-up he defeated decisively, looked extremely impressive winning an allowance race in January following a troubled start in the BC Juvenile when he bumped soundly from both sides. So, in summary, Blazing Sevens has the experience in Grade 1 company, has never been off the board, has won on fast and sloppy tracks, and has a pedigree geared toward stamina. Brown has finished a good second (with Blazing Sevens’ sire) and third in the Kentucky Derby, so this could be his year.
6—Instant Coffee (Brad Cox, Bolt d’Oro – Follow No One, by Uncle Mo)
Although he has done nothing to dazzle you, there is something to be said for professionalism and knowing how to win. He continues to improve with every start, and in his only defeat in the Breeders’ Futurity he was way too far back in a 14-horse field and closed well enough to miss third by a head. He won a strong maiden race in his career debut at Saratoga, running the seven furlongs in 1:22 3/5, so we know he does have brilliance in him, and his Thoro-Graph numbers took a big jump forward in the LeComte Stakes. If you want to feel old, in his tail-female family he has Holy Bull in his fifth generation. The other two fifth generation ancestors in his tail-female family were foals of 1967 and 1969. As I mentioned, he is a complete outcross and could be a throwback to those tough, sound, and consistent horses of the past. He should meet better horses in the Risen Star Stakes, but you always have to feel confident he is going to be right there battling to the end.
7—Giant Mischief (Brad Cox, Into Mischief – Vertical Oak, by Giant Oak)
Even though beating Arabian Lion in that Keeneland allowance doesn’t look as impressive now as it then I still like everything I’ve seen of this colt. Arabian Lion has since come apart at the seams for whatever reason, but he sure looked good going into that allowance race coming off a maiden score in 1:09 3/5. And Giant Mischief ran him down and out-fought him to the wire in 1:22 1/5 for the seven furlongs, getting a 95 Beyer figure and 99 Brisnet figure. I keep mentioning his impressive turn of foot, which will help him get out of traffic problems, so all we can do for now is wait for the Rebel Stakes and see what kind of transition he’s made from 2 to 3. With two of his three starts in Indiana and Oklahoma he has to show what he can do on the big stage when the major points come into play and everyone is on their “A” game. He also has to give some kind of indication that classic distances will not be a problem, as he does have quite a bit of speed on both sides. But all in all, he looks like a quality horse with a bright future.
8—Reincarnate (Bob Baffert, Good Magic – Allanah, by Scat Daddy)
After a closer study of all the Baffert horses I really couldn’t find anything not to like about this colt. Baffert needed to get a race in him in September and had no choice but to start him off on the grass. In his first start going a mile he went to the lead and turned back three separate challenges, then re-rallied when looked in the eye tuning for home, and just got nailed at the wire. He then was entered in the Zuma Beach Stakes on grass, but was scratched after drawing in the also-eligibles in post 13. He drew poorly again in a maiden race, breaking from post 10 and got fanned four-wide into the first turn. He stalked the leader but they came home fast and he couldn’t catch him, falling 1 1/2 lengths short. He was finally put on the dirt at 1 1/16 miles and after going three-wide on the first turn he tracked his stablemate, the 1-5 Fort Bragg, who had already finished first in his previous start before being disqualified. He closed well in the stretch and was getting to Fort Bragg, but was beaten three-quarters of a length. He finally broke his maiden going wire-to-wire at Del Mar and then was 16-1 in the Sham Stakes against his two more highly regarded stablemates Newgate and National Treasure, who had already run well in four grade 1 stakes between them, with the latter placing in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He went to the lead, battled head and head, and gamely dug in to hold off both of them, with his Beyer figure jumping from an 84 to a 95 and Thoro-Graph number from a 9 3/4 to a 2 3/4, one of the fastest numbers of the year. He is a strong, tough colt with a 1 1/16-mile race and four mile races under him already. He is a tough, improving colt and turned in a sharp five-furlong work in :59 2/5.
9—Signator (Shug McGaughey, Tapit – Pension, by Seeking the Gold)
Although there is no work listed for him at Payson Park since January 25, I was sent a video of him working in company in the fog on February 1. He was on the inside and he and his workmate finished on even terms and galloped out strongly together. According to his exercise rider he is “getting better every day.” When asked if he had any races in mind for the colt, McGaughey simply said, “Not yet.” So, like with many others on the Derby trail this year, we just wait and see how he progresses and where he shows up for his 3-year-old debut. He has not raced since October 14 and with only two starts and not having faced winners, the sooner the better, as he needs to improve his speed figures quite a bit. But we know that is not McGaughey’s style. As it looks now he will have to move way up in class from a maiden race while coming off approximately a four-month layoff. That is asking a lot. As you know I really like everything about this colt, but I can’t get too excited until he runs and faces stakes-caliber competition and gets faster. At this point it looks as if he will have only two starts, so everything is going to have work perfectly for him.
10—Victory Formation (Brad Cox, Tapwrit – Smart N Soft, by Smart Strike)
He turned is a sharp five-furlong work in 1:00 2/5 for his likely debut in the Risen Star or Rebel Stakes. He has won the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn, but is stabled at Fair Grounds, so we’ll see what Cox decides to do. He has a classic pedigree, has won by 4 3/4 and three lengths and also in a dogfight by a neck, and has won two races on the front end and one stalking the leader, so he’s pretty much done all that’s been asked of him. He’s been though the sales ring three times as a weanling, yearling, and 2-year-old, so he no doubt is tough mentally. Like so many 3-year-olds this year he has to take another step forward and also pick up his Thoro-Graph numbers. He has improved with each race, but in small increments, from a 9 1/2 to 8 1/4 to 7 1/4, so he still has to make that one good leap to compete with the top horses.
11—Dubyuhnell (Danny Gargan, Good Magic – Wild Gams, by Forest Wildcat)
He breezed a half in :51 1/5 at Palm Beach Downs. What makes one wonder about this work is that his previous works have been at Palm Meadows. So did Danny Gargan pack up and move? He seemed to be ready for a big effort in a weak Holy Bull Stakes, but looks to have opted for Saturday’s Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay, which also looks to be a good spot for him. This could very well be his coming out party with another strong effort.. The big key to him is how he does on a fast track, with both his victories coming on a sloppy track. There is no telling how good this colt is, and let’s remember that he got a rare triple-digit Brisnet figure in the Remsen Stakes and a “1 1/4” Thoro-Graph number, the fastest of any member of this crop. Now let’s see if he is just as fast on a dry track. If he is he should skyrocket up the standings.
12—Red Route One (Steve Asmussen, Gun Runner – Red House, by Tapit)
There’s not much more to say about that wasn’t said last week following his big effort in the Southwest Stakes. He has the experience, he has the closing kick, and he has the pedigree to run all day. I’m not sure he’s the type who can win the Derby, but he looks like the type who often is closing late to pick up a piece of it at a big price. But one of these days these types will fool you and take it all with the right setup. He has been running against top competition and become very dependable, knowing he is going to give his all and will be closing at the end. He has stamina top and bottom, and one name you never see in a pedigree is his dam’s broodmare sire Prized, who had the distinction of beating Sunday Silence in the Swaps Stakes and later that year winning the Breeders’ Cup Turf in his first race on grass.
13—Verifying (Brad Cox, Justify – Diva Delite, by Repent)
He has been right on the cusp of being ranked, and he made it this week following the allowance victory by Gun Pilot, who he handled easily in an allowance race in January, winning 5 1/4 lengths. That was enough to show that he defeated a good horse and did it impressively. Normally I would be skeptical with him winning that race with first time Lasix and coming off a poor race in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, but he got creamed from both sides coming out of the gate and then squeezed back in the Juvenile, so he gets a pass on that one. In addition he did break his maiden and finish second in the Champagne Stakes without Lasix, so I’m not going to pay attention to him running a big race on it for the first time. He simply looks like a good horse who is improving, jumping to a 97 Beyer last out and a 95 Brisnet figure. He has shown he can win on the lead or just off it. He is another Cox-trained colt who is stabled at Fair Grounds, where he just worked five furlongs in 1:01 1/5, but shipped to Oaklawn to run, so once again we’ll have to see how Cox divides his forces with big preps coming up.
14—Gun Pilot (Steve Asmussen, Gun Runner — Bush Pilot, by Smart Strike)
As you can see I am still looking at the allowance winners and projecting they will turn out to be stakes-caliber horses until the stakes horses show me more. Although the pace and final time of Saturday’s allowance victory at Oaklawn were slow I believe it made him look more impressive being trapped down on the rail behind horses for most of the race through an agonizingly slow three-quarters in 1:13 2/5. But he bided his time until he was able to ease out for a clear run nearing the top of the stretch. He ran down a pretty good horse in Bourbon Bash, who was coming off five straight stakes races, and powered his way to a two-length victory under a hand ride, coming home his final eighth in :12 2/5 and then galloping out strongly. This was a big step forward being taken back off the pace for the first time and covered up instead of being on the lead where I don’t believe he wanted to be. He is yet another talented colt sired by the still red-hot Gun Runner, and being a grandson of Candy Ride and inbred to Quiet American it means he is inbred three times to Fappiano and has Dr. Fager in his pedigree five times. He has always been highly regarded by owner and breeder Three Chimneys Farm and has required patient handling by Asmussen.
15—Disarm (Steve Asmussen, Gun Runner – Easy Tap, by Tapit)
Not having run since August and not having run farther than seven furlongs, I can’t remember why I even ranked him. So I watched is maiden win again and again was impressed with what I saw, including beating eventual Holy Bull Stakes winner Rocket Can by 9 1/2 lengths. I guess I also went by his pedigree. With stakes almost every weekend he’s not going to be on the Rankings much longer without running, and there aren’t many options open to him at this late date except the Risen Star and possibly the Rebel, and I’m not sure he’s ready for either one of those races. His last work was a solid five-furlong breeze in 1:01 3/5. It’s time to start looking for him in the entries.
KNOCKING ON THE DOOR
I think ROCKET CAN and SHADOW DRAGON, the one-two finishers in the Holy Bull Stakes both are colts to watch down the road, but as Derby horses they still have a ways to go, and both have to get noticeably faster in a hurry. Shadow Dragon made a big leap forward with his strong late run and not having run since finishing up the track in the Sleepy Hollow Stakes for New York-breds in October. And Rocket Can also moved forward from his game second in a Churchill Downs allowance race in November. But this was a pretty weak field for the Holy Bull, compounded by the dismal performance by the big favorite CYCLONE MISCHIEF, one of several promising horses who have fallen from the Rankings in the past two weeks, showing how easy it is to go from a good race to a bad race when you are dealing young unproven horses. We’ll just wait and see how he came out of his race. Rocket Can and Shadow Dagon have put Bill Mott on the Derby trail in a hurry and that’s always a good thing. Now let’s see where both horses go from here and if they can take another step forward.
It is very rare to have two graded stakes at major tracks with no one making the Rankings. We know NEWGATE is a good horse who, like his stablemate National Treasure, has been knocking on the door. But the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, despite its lofty Beyer figure, bore no resemblance to a stakes race, with all four starters from the same barn. Not only did Arabian Lion run last for the second straight race despite coming off a bullet :58 4/5 work, Newgate, the even-money favorite, had to struggle to beat the 12-1 HARD TO FIGURE by a neck. The last time Hard to Figure ran, in the Bob Hope Stakes in November, he finished 12 lengths behind Newgate. So did Hard to Figure improve that much? Let’s wait to find out if Newgate and some of the others are staying with Baffert or heading to new trainers before we take up another spot in the Rankings. There has been no competition for the Baffert brigade and there won’t be until Practical Move shows up in the San Felipe. By then, Practical Move’s trainer Tim Yakteen might be training several of these Baffert horses.
To give you an idea what kind of warped Derby trail it has been in Southern California, the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, won in the past by the likes of I’ll Have Another, Medina Spirit, Pioneerof the Nile, and Dortmund, drew only four horses, all of them trained by Bob Baffert. Those four horses have lost a total of 12 races in California, and in those 12 races they have finished behind 17 stablemates.
You can sort of understand if some of the good horses not trained by Baffert were nominated for the Lewis and then something came up to prevent them from running. But of the 16 horses nominated, 14 of them are trained by Baffert, which is insane. You can’t blame Baffert for having a lot of good 3-year-olds, but it is apparent that something is wrong out there.
Everything I’ve heard so far indicates it is going to be very difficult getting CAVE ROCK to the Derby. Watching him in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, it is possible something happened to him the way he ducked in sharply after turning for home for no apparent reason and being on his wrong lead. That is pure speculation, but the fact is there has been no word on him. At this point it is not worth taking up a spot with him. It is a lot easier to put him back if he should start training up a storm.
One Baffert colt I really like is FAUSTIN, but I am reluctant to rank him because Baffert decided to sprint him again in the San Vicente against his fastest 3-year-old, Havenameltdown, rather than stretch him out two turns in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes against three stablemates who appear to be inferior to him. So I am thinking that perhaps he is looking at Faustin more as a one-turn horse. Why else would he not stretch him out in what looked to be an ideal spot?
Saturday’s seven-furlong Swale Stakes was won by the consistent and hard-knocking GENERAL JIM, who was dropping back to a sprint after four straight distance races at a mile and 1 1/16 miles, just like the old days when all good horses hit the Derby trail sprinting. What was impressive about his victory was the way he chased down the 4-5 favorite Super Chow, winner of five of his six starts and last four. Super Chow had opened a four-length lead and looked home free around the turn, but General Jim, wearing blinkers for the first time, kept coming and was relentless in the stretch, winning by a length, with an 11-length gap to the third horse. General Jim’s two victories had come on the grass, but he most likely would have won the Mucho Macho Man Stakes last out if not for an absolutely disastrous trip. By Into Mischief, out of a Curlin mare, his tail-female line is inundated with stamina through Relaunch and Temperence Hill all the way to Nashua and Nasrullah. I can’t wait to see him stretch out again, possibly in the Fountain of Youth Stakes.
BANISHING not banished after all. I had originally wrote “with no works yet from BANISHING since being scratched from an important allowance race after suffering cuts in his stall we have no idea of the severity of his wounds and again can only wait to see if he shows up on the work tab and in the entries in the near future. He is another who will return to the rankings with anything positive to report.” But I just saw this morning he worked five furlongs in 1:01 and it’s too late to put him back, so he will likely be ranked again next week. I was happy to see him come back with a sharp five-furlongs, so all looks good.
Speaking of Banishing, to demonstrate the importance of several promising horses’ next start, Banishing, SHOPPER’S REVENGE, and Hit Show are just some of the horses who won big last out with the addition of Lasix for the first time and will now have to race without it when they step into stakes competition. Hit Show did break his maiden without Lasix, but finished out of the money two starts back without it when facing winners for the first time. So we’ll give these horses one more race. If they run big next time without Lasix then they become legitimate Derby contenders.
With the sub-zero temperatures forcing the cancelation of the Withers Stakes we have to wait a week to see the hard-knocking Remsen and Jerome runner-up ARCTIC ARROGANCE defend his home turf against the aforementioned Oaklawn invader HIT SHOW, who indicated he was razor-sharp for last Saturday with a bullet five-furlong work in 1:00 2/5. Brad Cox said he will re-enter the colt and stick to his original plan. He has plenty of ammunition at Oaklawn heading for the Rebel and Hit Show should relish the mile and an eighth of the Withers. With the race canceled, Arctic Arrogance worked on Friday, breezing an easy five furlongs in 1:03 1/5. I’m looking forward to seeing how he does with blinkers on for the first time. He has shown he’s a warrior, but just needs something to reverse those photo finishes. A good race by either of these two will catapult them onto the Rankings, as they both appear to have bright futures.
One horse flying way under the radar is the Saffie Joseph-trained PRAIRIE HAWK, who will be trying for his third staight victory at Tampa Bay Downs in Saturday’s Sam F. Davis Stakes. He showed how sharp he is right now with a sizzling half-mile work in :46 2/5 at Gulfstream. Another horse I’ll be watching in the Sam Davis, if not for now then later, is the lightly raced LITIGATE, trained by Todd Pletcher. The son of Blame has a pedigree inundated with stamina and tons of class, and he is only going to keep improving as the distances stretch out. Watch out for this guy down the road. How far down the road we’ll see on Saturday.
Continuing on the Brad Cox front, Smarty Jones Stakes runner-up ANGEL OF EMPIRE worked five furlongs in 1:00 4/5 at Oaklawn Park. The son of Classic Empire has won both his starts with Lasix and lost both his starts without Lasix, so his next race will be important. Another Cox horse, TAPIT’S CONQUEST, who is improving and maturing with every start, breezed a half in :48 4/5 at Fair Grounds. There are only so many races for all these Cox horses to race and they most likely are going to have to weed themselves out.
Another horse who is sharp right now is Kentucky Jockey Club runner-up CURLY JACK, who drilled five furlongs in a bullet :59 4/5 at Fair Grounds, as he prepares for his 3-year-old debut in the Risen Star Stakes. He is another who easily could have been ranked, but after six starts his speed figures are still pretty slow, so he is another who will remain on the watch list for now.
One New York defector, LUGAN KNIGHT, gutsy winner of the Jerome, breezed a half-mile in :50 4/5 at of all places the Churchill Downs training center.
Racing historian, author, and award-winning retired journalist for the Daily Racing Form and The Blood-Horse, Steve Haskin was inducted into the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame’s Media Roll of Honor in 2016. Known for his racing knowledge and insightful prose, he has been an exclusive contributor to Secretariat.com since 2020.
Steve, thanks for all your hard work, week after week, in keeping us informed. You do an amazing job and it’s always appreciated.
Cave Rock just worked 47.80 this morning at SA.
Add Reincarnate’s work yesterday of 1.11.60 for 6 (1/5) to my earlier list.
More about Skinner….he was sixth, at the 3/4 pole, and lately the dirt track has been favoring speed! No problem Circling and went right on by….
Yes, very impressive performance, Matthew. The dam was a sprinter which would worry me normally but there could be many reasons for that which may or may not impact on Skinner. Have you seen the colt run previously?
Yes in the Del Mar Futurity, as a maiden he got 3rd, finishing in front of 6 horses, before finishing up the track in the American Pharoah and then getting shelved…
Ah, thanks Matthew.
Brad Cox hinted that the Wood Memorial would be Hit Show’s next start.
Hey Steve…do you know about a 34 year old horse named Maritime Traveler? He’s believed to be the last living foal of Secretariat, he spent a long time as a teaser stallion..
In my opinion the most impressive 3yo this weekend was Skinner, who had missed work bit came back and broke his maiden today in 1:36 3/5—very impressive!
Steve watch the replay of Skinner, and watch him coming back he is a fabulous looking son of Curlin, big engine (rear) on that big frame! This is a horse that John Shirreffs liked so much he entered him in a Gr1 in his 2nd start—horse looked professional today, and had a few starts, as a two year old….
I’ve watched it several times already
I’ve watched it several times already. I was impessed.
My current top Derby Dozen
1) Hit Show
2) Forte
3) Arabian Knight
4) Tapit Trice
5) Practical Move
6) Reincarnate
7) Litigate
8) Victory Formation
9) Blazing Sevens
10) Giant Mischief
11) General Jim
12) Lugan Knight
I’m looking forward to Steve’s Derby Rankings Week #4. Will Hit Show make the top 12? Stay tuned.
Discopartner’s “Walk on by” comment reminded me of Burt Bacharach, I have heard things, about Burt and what a man he was! Donated big, to the Gregson Foundation and Old Friends, and after Linda Pincay passed, Burts family would scoop up Laffit and his young kids for weekly dinners, I’m sure that helped a family in shock! I remember when his Afternoon Deelights was running in Derby preps, and Heartlight Number One and Soul of the Matter, Burt bred his horses and was generous with praise, for Horse Racing!
Yes, that was a deliberate pun on the song by Burt B. I remember his hit music, it was the main pop music for the last half of the 60’s and into the 70’s, constantly on the radio, played often at parties and dances, and on Ed Sullivan a lot.
It is easy to guess Steve filling the two spots left by Signator and Dubyuhnell with Hit Show and Litigate who are 20 points closer to the Derby (4h and 5th in the standing)…I believe Banishing will need to race again to gain a spot within the big 16…is that a fair guess?
Nelson, Banishing is entered in an allowance on the Risen Star undercard next weekend. In my opinion, he’s missing a chance not only at points, but a big fat stakes win. That’s ANOTHER weak-looking prep. Perhaps his trainer (Brendan Walsh) doesn’t wish to rush him.
Nearly one third of the 2023 Triple Crown nominations—-are from three trainers..
I wonder what the percentage will be for two trainers when the Baffert horses are redistributed.
I’m presuming the Big Four are: A, B, C & P?
I mentioned THREE, with 1/3 of the noms….A..B..P….
Oops my bad! B….C …P!..
Some works yesterday beside the Harlocap breeze…
Forte 103.48 for 5 (4/5)
Hejazi 100.60 for 5 (17/49)
Practical Move 59.20 for 5 (1/49)
Hit Show 91 Beyer Litigate 76 Beyer Dreaming of Snow 83…..
Matthew, out of 10, how high would you rate a Beyer number as a handicapping tool?
The Risen Star was drawn today, very nice field of 14! Interesting note on Harlcap, he was recently transferred from the Baffert barn to Mr. Asmussen, and Johnny V stays aboard! Hmmmm, transfer made just in time to gain some Derby points??! Also, in the race before the Risen Star, Hoosier Philly is entered to run, makes for a fun day of racing!!
That is VERY interesting. I don’t remember reading anything about the switch but I guess it’s because the horse isn’t a big name yet. As for Hoosier Philly, she is at this moment the favorite in the future wager. Yes…the favorite!
yes can you believe that, she’s currently at 8-1!! Guess the money knows she’s going to take a shot at the boys here pretty soon!!!?
Yes, saw that about Harlocap…..also just worked 1.11.8 yesterday (1/7).
Litigate could be a Derby contender. He probably needed this race to get into condition, should have won by more over Groveland and others. Nice looking runner. The Tampa Bay dirt looks like the AW track at Gulfstream, was it slow or what? A lot of wire to wire winners by the local jockeys, upsetting the stars. I don’t like seeing the eclipse award winner losing to a 78:1 shot ridden by a local hotshot.
I think the times were pretty decent at Tampa. How do you mean that it looks like the AW track at Gulfstream? Physically? Running times? I know that closers have a much better chance on Gulfstream’s AW. Speaking of times, the Withers was REALLY slow. Oh, Dreaming of Snow was 38-1.
Physically, same color and texture, doesn’t clump like dirt does.
The times of the other races were good, just not the Sam Davis. Other three stakes were wire to wire, an ‘S’ type went to the lead and won, some ‘E’s’ were closers, thought it was odd and thought the local jockeys and trainers were on to something about how the track was playing.
I like Litigate because he won with his just off the pace style, but his passing fraction was slower than I thought, got it mixed up with the 3/4 fraction when I posted above.
I don’t know if Tampa was slow, there were races where the fractions were very fast and the leaders kept on going so it was probably on the fast side…..
Discopartner, I am not bothered by Wonder Wheel taking 2nd to Dreaming of Snow though it did surprise me. This was her first race back after a four month layoff. If the race had been longer it is my opinion she would have passed Dreaming of Snow.
I was expecting a better performance from Julia Shining. She challenged Wonder Wheel I think three times and Wonder Wheel came right back. She looked sluggish to me at the end of the race.
Dreaming of Snow is a well bred filly. Her sire, Jess’s Dream as you probably know is Rachel Alexandra’s first foal by Curlin. He won his first and only race in his debut, had set backs and was finally retired. He has shown some success as a stallion with several blacktype winners. Her damsire is Old Fashioned who Rick Porter campaigned in 2008 and 2009. The colt was well on his way to the Derby after a couple of major wins but was retired after an injury. She is a small, very feminine filly as compared to Wonder Wheel and this was her home track, her regular rider was up and she has won there. Remains to be seen if she can stretch out in longer races.
Remains to be seen as well if Julia Shining is an Oaks contender.
Wonder Wheel, Julia Shining and Hoosier Fillly are my three favorite 3 year old fillies.
Wonder Wheel looked like a giant in size compared to the others, thought she would “walk on by” on the turn. No doubt will come back and has lost before, but still makes you wonder.
No Derby contenders today! Count me as one who does not like 50 point press in mid Feb, 50 points means you’re IN….
PREPS!..
Yes, agree. Too many points are given away too early. The points program needs revitalization.
Everything in life can be improved, including the point system. But I don’t think that there have been very many deserving horses denied entry in the Kentucky Derby since the system was established. There were probably many more deserving horses denied entry in the days when earnings ruled.
That’s the problem, Roberta, too many undeserving colts get to run in the Kentucky Derby. The Breeders’ Cup Classic doesn’t have 20 horse fields, I wonder why?
Good performances by Hit Show in the Withers and Litigate in the Sam Davis. And a sparkling maiden win by Arthur’s Ride (who apparently is “my” horse, thanks to those who’ve been enthusiastically sharing updates on works with me). I’d say Litigate is a little farther along than Hit Show, but both have Derby potential. Litigate looked really professional out there.
I saw a tweet that Hit Show got a 91 Beyer. Wonder what figs Litigate and Arthur’s Ride will receive? And what will Steve Haskin have to say about it all?
Can’t wait for that!
Ms Blacktype, there has been many tales written about King Arthur. Who knows, perhaps red roses and twin towers are to become part of the fabulous fable. Dream, dream, dream…
Davids, you are weaving a romance around Arthur’s Ride! For now he’s a nice, nearly white 3YO. Hope he gets a better fig than Litigate. A 76 Beyer for the winner of the Sam Davis? Something’s not quite right there. Perhaps that weird rainstorm during the running of the race changed the track.
“… For happily-ever-aftering than here
In Camelot” – sing along Ms Blacktype
I would, but I’d get an earworm! That was a much-played album in my house when I was a child.
Hit Show didn’t let me down. He came from off the pace, just as I thought he would, and won the G3 Withers, drawing off by 5 1/2 lengths. Brad Cox had Hit Show cranked, and Manuel Franco rode him perfectly.
I keyed him on top, with Arctic Arrogance and General Banker underneath in a $50.00 trifecta p/w. I cashed for $850.00.
This made up for my losing trifecta wager in the Sam Davis, (7/ 2,11/ 2,11). Dubyuhnell certainly didn’t live up to expectations.
Where will Steve place Hit Show in his Derby Rankings Week #4? Stay tuned for that.
BTW, for all you football fans out there, you can bet the farm that the Eagles will cover the spread, and take down the Chiefs.
Hit Show won nice but the time was sloooooow and you had to hold your nose as the other horses came past the finish line. Will wait and see on him. Has the right connections though. Liked Litigate in the Sam Davis better.
As expected, Arctic Arrogance set the pace, which was relatively slow. Manuel Franco just held Hit Show back until the real racing began, in the stretch. Bottom line, the final time is unimportant. It’s how the race played out to Hit Show’s advantage, closing on that slow pace. If in fact, the pace would have been faster, the outcome would have been the same, IMO.
It is my belief that Hit Show has one of the best, if not the best pedigrees, to handle the Classic distance.
Hit Show, by Candy Ride, out of Actress, by Tapit, is a Gary and Mary West homebred that should improve moving forward on the Derby trail, IMO.
Congrats on hitting the trifecta in the Withers, Bill. Would have been nice to cash two in one day, wouldn’t it?
Thanks, Ms Blacktype
Yes, that would have nice, but you can’t win them all.
I looked to me like Arctic Arrogance was hounded the entire way, and Hit Show got a dream trip….
Yes, and Arctic Arrogance is a better at a mile than 9f. Moreover, Dubyuhnell, who just beat Arctic Arrogence in the 9f. Remsen Stakes, flopped in the Sam F. Davis Stakes. I wouldn’t be carried away with Hit Show’s specious boundless talent either.
Dismiss Hit Show at your own peril. 🙂
It’s way too early to start ‘nailing your colors to the mast’ but good luck, nonetheless.
Loved the way Litigate ran in the Sam Davis. Jockey took him off the pace and horse responded on the turn coming into the stretch…Very nice!!!
Absolutely.
Do not know what happened to the Gargan and Casse entries.
Other than Groveland not much to say about anybody else in that race. Not a big Todd Pletcher fan when it comes to the Kentucky Derby but this horse looked very professional. He may have something here will be anxious to see how he runs in his next race.
I’m guessing that Champions Dream may have bled. He was contesting the early pace but then dropped back and was eased before they got to the stretch.
For those that have following other pubs there is a three old $1.55 million colt in the 10th and final race at Santa Anita on Saturday….trained by John Sadler (Flightline) this colt has the following 7 works since last December:
Nuclear
25.2 for 2 (4/7) on 12-5
35.6 for 3 (1/12) on 12-14
47.8 for 4 (5/40) on 12-27
48.6 for 4 (27/80) on 1-7
101.6 for 5 ((15/37) on 1-13
100.6 for 5 (17/76) on 1-20
100.0 for 5 (3/60) on 1-28
101.2 for 5 (41/67) just last week
The next “Flightline”? The new rival for Baffert’s three year olds? Or just another expensive colt?
You don’t want to give his name?
Nuclear.
Reporting from TBD and using my cell phone. So don’t be upset by typos that might ensue. Looks like the thunderstorms might hold off until the races have finished. It’s about 80°, cloudy, and breezy. The wind, I think, will be hitting the horses as they turn into the stretch. Suerte looks really nice and strong. He finished second to prairie hawk a couple of races back. I like him here and my brother’s going to bet big! I hope he doesn’t disown me after this. Haha!
Hi Roberta:
Thanks for the weather report! I was hoping race 11 would stay on the turf. I kind of like the #1, first time on turf….hope to see something close-to or above 10-1 ml….Best of luck to you today!
I love the #1 Little Miss Moonlight!…she’s been bet down to 7-1, 5 min to post..
6-1???
Thanks Roberta, on the weather update and even better on Suerte. Nice win, indeed.
Thanks, Biggy and Davids. And you’re welcome! Good luck, Biggy, with the finale. That’s a wide open race. Yours has a shot at a good price. Gotta watch out for the first timers from the Clement and Brown barns. Then there’s Juniper’s Moon, who’s turf race back in November was pretty good, and she’s by Galileo. Wowie! That’s some maiden turf race. But first….the stakes races. Dark clouds to the west. Fingers crossed.
I still like Champions Dream in the Sam Davis. I don’t think the rain has affected the track too much.
Nice call on Junipers Moon!
Thanks! I picked a few losers in between Suerte and Juniper’s Moon. But it was a fun day even with the late precipitation. I’m staying for the races tomorrow at TBD. The sixth race is an allowance for 3-year-olds. Kingsbarns is the 6-5 morning line favorite. Looks like Todd Pletcher didn’t want Kingsbarns to lose the Sam Davis to his own Litigate.
TODAY at Tampa Bay Downs
My longshot pick for the Sam F. Davis is Dreaming of Kona, whom no one is discussing although he finished first in the Mucho Macho Man. Perhaps his dead even mediocre speed figs (all 72 on the Beyer scale) have something to do with that. Would be thrilled to see Champion’s Dream, Classic Legacy or Dubyanell take a big step forward in this race.
Ms Blacktype, Arthur’s Ride looked very promising on return. Worth the wait.
I’ll say, Davids. We’ll know more once he races in a stakes. I don’t want to get my hopes up, but he seems to have progressed well since he raced at Saratoga last summer.
Looks like Champions Dream and Dubayunell need to head back to NY.
Steve, do you have any prior knowledge if Aristocracy, Cagliostro, or Shopper’s Revenge are liable to run in the Risen Star Stakes? I was surprised to see that only 11 colts have being nominated. What’s going on, you would have expected twice that number?
In 2020, there were 2 Divisions of the Risen Star Stakes.
I haven’t looked that far ahead yet. I would say Shopper’s Revenge is a good possibility. It looks like Brad Cox is going to dominate this race.
Thanks Steve, actually it’s Asmussen rather than Cox with the most entries, followed by Pletcher, but same old, same old. I surprised by the limited entries, nonetheless.
Cox 3, Asmussen 3, but will they all run?
Wonder Wheel, last seen winning the BC Juvenile Fillies, is entered in the Suncoast, at TB, on Saturday 2-11.
After Casse gave her some time off, she resumed training, and has fired four straight bullet works.
She’s listed at even money on the M/L, but I see her at 2/5 or 3/5 at post time. Julia Shining and Ticker Tape Home appear to be her main competition on the outside posts. I’ll key Wonder Wheel on top, with Julia Shining/Ticker Tape Home underneath in a fairly large Trifecta P/W wager.
1/ 8,9/ 8,9
I think this is Wonder Wheels race to lose. She also won the Eclipse last month.
Julia Shinning is full sister to Malathaat who won back to back Older Dirt Mare Eclipse Awards.
Julia has also been nominated to the Triple Crown races.
Should be an interesting race.
Hoosier Philly is another filly nominated for the Triple Crown races. She’s undefeated in three career starts.
In Derby Future Wagers Pool 4, Hoosier Philly is currently listed at 13-1.
BTW, only two fillies were nominated for this year’s Triple Crown races, Julia Shinning and Hoosier Philly.
Doug O’Neill’s 3-year-old Tall Boy (Lookin At Lucky-Madame Mayra by Scat Daddy) won the UAE 2000 Guineas today at Meydan for Calumet Farm. His time for the mile was 1:37:32 which is better than the 1:37:74 logged by Shadwell’s Alkaamel in winning a Handicap for older horses two hours earlier.
This international win compliments Practical Move who was two seconds faster than Tall Boy while winning the Los Alamitos Futurity on December 17th .
Doug O’Neill and Calumet are trying to get a Derby ticket for Tall Boy via the UAE Derby. I hope they are luckier this time after a failed try last year with Get Back Goldie …
WOW, that is great news!
I knew he had taken Tall Boy to the Saudi Cup races to try for the ticket to the Derby.
Thank you sharing. I had not checked race results this evening.
Nelson, William Buick was very complimentary about Tall Boy. “Tremendous stride, pleasant attitude and definitely can go further”.
Kentucky Derby Futures Pool 4 opened today, (Friday, 2-10), and closes on Sunday, 2-12, at 6:00 pm (eastern time)
The following are few bombers, listed on Steve’s Derby Rankings Week 3.
#4, Practical Move, 99-1
#7, Giant Mischief, 87-1
#11, Dubyuhnell, 99-1
#14, Gun Pilot, 89-1
#15, Disarm, 99-1
KOTD Segment
Hit Show, 74-1
Ligigate, 99-1
Obviously, if Dubyuhnell or Litigate were to win the Sam Davis Stakes, their odds would drop big time at closing time.
If Hit Show were to win the Withers, then his odds would drop as well.
Another horse worth mentioning is General Jim listed at 56-1. Steve had a nice write up on GJ in his KOTD segment.
“I have mentioned his paddling action and although that shouldn’t affect his performance I have found that it can take its toll at longer distances later on.”
For that reason I bet against Essential Quality in the 2021 Belmont. That didn’t work out so well. I’m not sure the paddling matters.
Essential Quality’s paddling was extremely slight. And as you quoted me…”can take its toll at longer distances LATER ON”. For whatever reason they did decide not to race him at 4. As I said, Arabian Knight’s, which is more noticeable, should not affect him. I mention it because its there, not to dissuade anyone frrom betting him.
I firmly believe paddling does affect a race horse as they age….maybe not as the distances increase—but the older they race I believe it has some effect—
Mr Zedan was well aware that Arabian Knight paddled/wingedout bit that rhat did not determine him from purchasing the colt.
The conformation fault can affect performance horses in some horse sports but have not found that is a major problem on tace horses.
California Chrome had a similar problem. He was splayed footed which is a conformation fault that can result in paddling. He paddled I think on the left fore if memory serves me correctly and it never affected his performance.
The progeny Mr. Prospector and Storm Cat were riddled with conformation faults but a lot of them could run. I remember Bill Farish saying that the only Mr. Prospector he’d seen that had perfect conformation was the excellent broodmare/racehorse was Prospectors Delite.
Well that is two off my list this week, Signator and Newgate.
What happened to Signator, I see he hasn’t worked since Jan 25??
Connections have not given specifics, at least that I read.
Just making a guess that it has to do with his wrenched ankle injury he had.
Bummer, thanks for the info Lynda!!
You are welcome Bruce.
Newgate out of training 60 to 90 days. Hock injury.
Injury minor, fully recovery expected.
Dettori was counting on the son of Into Mischief to compete in the Derby…
Maybe he can pick up another mount for the Derby. Sure he would love to retire at the end of this yea with a Derby win.
He is one of the world’s best riders.
Actually three horses off my list, Cyclone Mischief. Have not heard anymore about what his condition may or may not be. Possible
He has a trapped epiglottis or flipped palate. Both conditions would result in his poor performance and the “noise”. Not spreading rumors, just speculation on my part.
Every year it seems that colts and fillies that I like and have high hopes for go off the Derby and Oaks trail.
Basically I am down to two on my list…Forte and Instant Coffee and there are a couple more I am watching. Banishing is one.
It is early in the prep season so someone might come through fir me.
Be curious to see if Julia Ravishing or Hoosier Filly hit the Derby Trail. Both are on the Triple Crown nominations list. Not likely of course. Preakness maybe.
Last year’s trail was good in terms of consistency.
Out of the top 12 in Steve’s very first ranking (January 17) seven made it to the Derby (Smile Happy, Zandon, Mo Donegal, Tiz the Bomb, Simplification, Classic Causeway and Epicenter).
Rattle N Roll, Pappacap, Slow Down Andy, Giant Game and Commanderperformance were out due to lack of points and not due to health problems.
My top 12 seem to be going well so far in terms of training.
1. Tapit Trice
2. Forte
3. Verifying
4. Instant Coffee
5. Practical Move
6. Giant Mischief
7. Hit Show
8. Blazing Sevens
9. Tapit’s Conquest
10. Curly Jack
11. Red Route One
12. Banishing
Regarding Giant Game, I am not sure if his breathing problem was definitively solved by Dale Romans after the debacle in the Holy Bull … another flop in the Tampa Bay Derby and a long layoff suggest he was not good at all…
The history seems to be repeating with Cyclone Mischief…
Nelson, Mr Romans posted today on FB that Cyclone Mischief came put of race OK and had a couple of photos of him.
He also said CM went out for a gallop today.
Mr Romans is still at Gulfstream for the meet.
I find that encouraging. Quite sure he was checked out thoroughly.
Guess we will know more when he returns to the work tab.
Lynda, I doubt Frankie Dettori will be too concerned about losing the mount on Newgate or missing the Kentucky Derby for that matter. The coronation of King Charles III will take place on May 6 next year, the same day as the 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket. Dettori is the regular rider of Chaldean, one of the favourites for the Guineas.
That’s May 6, 2023 for the Coronation not 2024 as written above. Sometimes you forget the year has turned over when projecting future events. Lol.
Davids, I think but do not know for sure that Nelson was sourcing an interview that Frankie gave not long ago.
I know I was thinking in terms of the interview.
From looking at his bio, it appears that Frankie has accomplished winning most every important race and championship during his career other than the Kentucky Derby. The list of horses he has ridden over the years reads like a Who’s Who in Thoroughbred horse racing.
During the interview he was asked several questions about his time in Santa Anita and one response was the possibility of “stumbling across a horse to ride in the Kentucky Derby”.
You are absolutely right Lynda,… I sensed from Dettori’s public statements that he wishes to win the Kentucky Derby … as you wisely said, it would be a crowning achievement for an International Star to have a Kentucky Derby triumph in his resume.
I believe that no International Jockey has ever won the run for the Roses… of course some European or other overseas fans would not care much about that accomplishment…
Bummer about Newgate, Lynda. I had him right behind Tapit Trice on my list and the rest of my dozen are hard to separate at this point. That may change this weekend with the running of three preps.
I always keep an “off the trail” list as well as a master list and a top 12 – 15 or 20 list. Some years are worse than others. So far, no fatalities. Fingers crossed there.
Ms Blacktype, same here…fingers crossed.
Guess I am going to have to start my list all over again.
Following Steve’s rankings each week helps so much.
In 2014 I had Honor Code as my top choice, then he was taken off the trail due to injury.
Steve had California Chrome in the Knocking on the Door section.
I started following him and he became my favorite to win.
Maybe there is a sleeper out there that will catch my eye.
Steve, it’s great to be back at it reading your insights on the new kids. I told myself, no comments until I reviewed all the film. Well, mission accomplished. The Lecomte drew my attention. As Instant coffee took the lead, my ears heard a different call of that race.
“And now instant coffee has taken the lead but down on the rail, Joy Boy is gaining and just to his outside is Bookman. It’s Instant Coffee, Joy Boy, Bookman and on the far outside HERE COMES ATOMIC WEDGIE! ATOMIC WEDGIE has pulled off the upset at 99-1. Ooh, that hurts!
All I can say is their must be gold in them their barns because all I’ve seen is a bunch of bronze. One or two exceptions but here’s to the horses who have not run. It’s seems like this is the new norm.
Great to back here having a great time reading your words. Thanks so much.
So great to see you back
Ooh! The first race at Tampa on Saturday is a maiden event for 3-year-olds at 1m 40y. There are two really nice firsters: Champagne Juan and Arch Runner. The damn of CJ was a graded stakes winner on the turf. A daughter of AR’s dam was also a graded stakes winner on the turf. But no reason to think these two won’t handle dirt.
I’m expecting (hoping) improvement from Ski Country but there are quite a few interesting colts here that could make a noise before May.
I like Champagne Juan to win. The son of Justify has been working fast in the heavy track of Payson.
Arch Runner is not nominated to the Triple Crown but he can be with a late payment of $6,000 until March 27.
Talking about TC nominees, you may also like the 10th at Gulfstream this Saturday. The very fine debutants Dreamlike (Gun Runner), Justice Department (Gun Runner), Union Trail (Constitution) and Monegasque (Uncle Mo) will be tested against two good runners in Arthur’s Ride (Tapit) and Case (Sky Mesa).
We are approaching the debut deadline (February 18) set by Justify… what a delight is seeing all these new faces representing great families…!
Watching the movie “Drive a Crooked Mile”, with Mickey Rooney…they’re planning a bank heist, and the team leader says it will take 4 minutes to drive a hard road for a mile and an eighth….his partner says it took Noor 1:46 4/5 so they should make it—-and I wondered if Mick had that line put into the script…..later on Rooney made the comedy “A Nice Little Bank That Should Be Robbed”, about two lovable lovers (Mickey and Tom Ewell) robbing banks, to support their one-horse racing stable…
Lovable LOSERS…
Ha ha! Lovable lovers would have been much more interesting.
Thanks for the updates Steve. I was hoping you wouldn’t mention Prairie Hawk..wanted to get a nicer price!!
Way under the radar indeed!!
UPDATE! Definitely using Praire Hawk, maybe a 3 horse box but agree about this nice horse!
Hey Matthew
Prairie Hawk’s two wins were contested over the Tampa Bay track, so he should be right at home in the Sam S. Davis Stakes. He closed at 171-1 in Derby Futures Pool 3, so that would have been the time to jump on him with a futures wager, IMO.
Pending the outcome of his performance in the Sam Davis, one thing is clear, Prairie Hawk will not close at those odds in Pool 4.
BTW, I’ve got him boxed with Hit Show (Withers Stakes) in my Derby Futures exacta wager, Pool 3.
I believe Dubyuhnell is the horse to beat in the Sam S. Davis Stakes.
I’ve been lucky enough to hit big on the Derby three times, in 1989, 1993 and 2012…..the biggest futures wager I think I ever bet was $20, its just not my thing…what I like about Praire Hawk are his subsequent two works, so I wouldn’t have been looking at him back when he was 171-1….
His last few works have been awesome and he has won his last two there. I will play him alone as well as with Dubyuhnell
I like Prairie Hawk BUT. .his recent wins have been vs tiny fields, his latest the big favorite blew the start— so he is really stepping up, tomorrow. I do like him though…but I understand why he’s 10-1…
Well Praire Hawk was moving around in the gate…when they opened he wasn’t standing well and he came out behind the field, on that surface that was all she wrote!..
Hey Bill… how’d you like my Trifecta “perfecta” for the Sam Davis. Litigate first and five others at the bottom
11-Litigate:::
1-Worthington(20/1),3-Classic Legacy(12/1),5-Groveland(12/1),7-Dubyuhnell(9/5), 10-Dreaming of Kona(12/1)
Hey Nelson
I like Litigate, but not on top. I consider Dubyuhnell the class of the Sam F. Davis field, and will use him on top on my trifecta p/w wager. My trifecta will be as follows; key Dubyuhnell on top, with Prairie Hawk and Ligigate underneath.
That is: 7/ 2-11/ 2-11
Good luck with your wager Nelson.
Very affordable Tri…($2 !!).
I see you are very confident about your three favored horses.
Good luck !
Hey Nelson
Just to be clear, I plan on betting a $50.00 trifecta P/W (not just a $2.00 wager) which will cost me $100.00.
Good luck to you as well Nelson.
I only played that kind of trifenta once in my life….and I hit it! 1989 Derby I had $155….I put Sunday Silence on top of Easy Goer…and three horses for 3rd, and cashed a $52 trifecta when Dansil got 4th, because Awe Inspiring who finished 3rd was part of a Phipps entry…I cashed around $5300, Dansil only beat Hawkster by a nose, for 4th…..I don’t think I have played more than a $10 tri since, but that was some day for me!
His price will go up or down anyway depending on how he runs on Saturday
I love Litigate but am looking at Groveland, with the better draw…..
HISA has given a final decision that Hot Rod Charlie’s racing plates were not in violation.
Rich Strike’s owner is said to be in consultation with his attorneys about taking the case to court.
On and on and on when will it stop. You feel you’re in a daily courtroom drama rather than horse racing.
I know! Never ending story.
For a minute there, Lynda, I thought you were talking about the 2022 Derby. Whew, It was a minor kerfuffle about the Lukas Classic.
Sorry, did not intentionally mean to “scare” anyone. Guess my thought was that everyone would know what I was talking about.
Re: G3 Withers Stakes, at Aquduct, Saturday, 2-11.
Jungfrau, by Arrogate, out of South Bank, by Tapit was a late addition to the Withers redraw. A short field of 7 with contest this G3 9 furlong race, which offers 20 Derby points to the winner. The entries are as follows;
1) Arctic Arrogance
2) Prove Right
3) Jungfrau
4) Hit Show
5) General Banker
6) Ninetyprcentmaddie
7) Andiamo a Firenze
The morning line odds have yet to be posted.
The Sam Davis has a full field of 12, including Remsen winner Dubyuhnell. Good luck trying to handicap the Sam Davis.
Prairie Hawk deserves a long look in the Sam Davis, IMO.
My “Just in Case” list of prospective Derby horses just got a lot longer. After reviewing the first TC nomination list, I had to cut some pretty good horses from my list, including Sanford winners MO STRIKE, Sapling winner LOST ARK, double stakes winner RECRUITER, WILDATLANTICSTORM (Springboard Mile — is he injured?), Pasco winner ZYDECEAUX and Florida series stakes winner AWESOME STRONG — not to mention several promising winners like Bromley, Johannes, and Massimo. Of course, they can be nominated in March (or even right before the Derby) but I’ve got them on the back burner for now.
The 10th race at Gulfstream on Saturday looks like a really good MSW 1 mile for 3 year olds. Nice mix of colts that have run, like Case and Arthur’s Ride, and firsters, like Union Tap, Monegasque, Justice Department, and Dreamlike. Dreamlike was a $975,000 purchase and the dam was unraced and hasn’t had a stakes winner yet. Looking forward to watching the race in person. You never know what you might be seeing.
Yes Roberta, are you attending? Need I ask? Ha ha Arthur’s Ride I’ve been waiting to see as a 3 year old for a while and it’s Union Trail, of the two Unions, that interests me more. He comes from Janney/Phipps family and trained by Barclay Tagg for Sackatoga Stable. First start though, one to watch rather than wager. Have fun!!
Arthur’s Ride, my boy! Hope he can break his maiden.
Good luck, Ms Blacktype. One mile at Gulfstream might be a bit tough/short on resuming but he should be steaming home.
That race looks like it’s coming up tough, and I haven’t even seen PPs yet.
Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay – who do you like? Roberta, Ms Blacktype?
I’m giving Laver his last chance not to double fault.
My brain says Dubyanell, my funny bone is going for Classic Car Wash.
The Sam F. Davis Stakes often throws you a curveball…don’t sweat too hard on it. Ha ha
Davids, I like this race so much more than the Holy Bull a few days ago. I’m thinking of making the long drive to oldsmar. Dubyuh sports that 100 Brisnet figure in the Remsen, but I like Champions Dream. He won the Nashua and had 2 months rest before a nice 7/8 tune-up at Tampa.
Roberta, would it take you longer than 3 1/2 hours to get to Oldsmar? Agreed, much better race than the Holy Bull Stakes. I don’t like the Remsen Stakes – too long, too late in the year. Good luck and go if it’s a lovely day. My heart wants Laver to win but a placing would be exciting enough to continue on with the Derby Trail.
it takes about 4 hours, direct with no stops. but I have family about 50 miles south of Tampa Bay Downs, so I get to rest up the night before the day at the track. Good luck with Laver.
That sounds good. You could listen to the racing chatter shows on the way or beautiful music. Good luck with Champion Dream. I’ll be watching from Race 3. onwards. Excitement is building.
Steve Haskin-
Just read your comment on Litigate. Checked the bloodlines. Checked the Future Bet Pool 4. He is listed at 80-1. A Pletcher Blame colt bred in deep purple. Will take a swing with Litigate. Thanks for the Derby Ranking Week 3. It’s still a little early, but it’s starting too get interesting. Good luck with KD 2023.
7.5 Furlongs
My brother had a Derby theory, and it rubbed off on me—I want a horse that ran two turns, as a 2yo….I want a horse that ran well, vs other good 2yos—not necessarily win, I want a horse that was competitive….as a 2yo….what Justify did was a rarity, a real good horse and a so-so crop… I love me a big framed horse like Blazing Sevens, who might not have as tough of a field, in New York, the Wood Memorial not being as tough in recent decades…and that’s fine, for the horse, get his points then on to Kentucky….maybe not as fast as some….colt will have bottom, and looks suited to the 10 furlongs, that’s a contender!
Yes, I like late developer types that have been given time. A win or placings late in the year preferred. Not keen on 2 year olds running over a mile but indicating that further distance isn’t a problem. Balanced, correct, tough, and the right mind. Medium size with pedigree.
Champion Forte will eventually hit the Derby trail as the king of the hill, but 38 years of Breeder’s Cup Juvenile history suggests that he will likely be dethroned by Derby Day.
The winner of the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile (BCJ) is normally crowned champion 2-year-old. Notable exceptions were champions Easy Goer (2nd), Dehere (8th) and Lookin At Lucky who was second by a head to European invader Vale of York.
Champions Forty Niner, Declan’s Moon, Maria’s Mon, American Pharoah, and Shared Belief did not need to run in the BCJ to earn the title.
A signature of the Golden seventies was that the 2-year-old Champion was bound to win the Derby; that decade was a joyful sea of reliability; then it took 27 years after Spectacular Bid for another champion 2-year-old to win the Roses.
As you would expect, the 2-year-old Champion is generally the early winter-book favorite for the Derby and at the top of the majority of rankings by January.
Forte’s standing prompts some probing questions: what is the weight of the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile (BCJ) as a source for Derby fields and winners? How the top young thoroughbreds endure 6 months of hard training after that momentous Grade One battle in November?
Since the inception of the Breeder’s Cup in 1984 until 2021 there have been a total of 453 starters in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile. 101 (22%) of them made it to the Derby and 6 won it (Spend a Buck, Alysheba, Sea Hero, Street Sense, Mine That Bird, Nyquist).
51 top three horses from the BCJ made it to the run for the Roses. Underperformers like Sea Hero (7th) and Mine That Bird (12th) went on to win the Derby.
The 2011 BCJ holds the record of delivering NINE (9) Derby starters (Alpha, Creative Cause, Daddy Long Legs, Dullahan, Hansen, Optimizer, Prospective, Take Charge Indy, Union Rags).
The 2006 BCJ edition yielded 6 to the Derby gates (Street Sense, Scat Daddy, Circular Quay, Great Hunter, Stormello, and Teuflesberg). The bronze medal goes to the 1986 and the 2017 BCJ editions with five (5) Derby competitors (Alysheba, Bet Twice, Gulch, Demons Begone, Capote) and (Bolt d’Oro, Firenze Fire, Free Drop Billy, Good Magic, Solomini ). The BCJ editions of 1996, 2012, 2019* and 2021 did not produce a single Derby entrant.
19 winners (50%) of the BCJ reached the Derby and only two (2) were able to win (Street Sense and Nyquist). It is also fair to mention that 13 BCJ winners were out of the Derby Road due to injuries or illness.
The tally for the BC Juvenile winners in the Derby is:
1st places: 2 (Street Sense and Nyquist)
2nd : 1 (Good Magic)
3rd : 2 (Timber Country, Essential Quality)
4th: 2 (Brocco, Classic Empire)
5th: 2 (Fly so Free, Game Winner)
Off the Board: 10 [Rhythm (7th), Capote (DNF), Arazi (8th ), Favorite Trick (8th), Answer Lively (10TH), Anees (13TH ), Johannesburg (8th), Action This Day (8th), Wilko (6th),Hansen (9th)]
So, there you have it… statistically you can expect 2 to 4 participants of the 2022 BCJ to make it to the 2023 Derby. You can also expect a steadfast up-and-comer to end up wearing the garland of Roses. In fact, the last six Derby winners lacked Graded Stakes experience in their 2-year-old campaigns; going further back, since 1985, 18 (47%) Derby winners had Stakes experience and 20 (53%) horses did not run in any graded Stakes during their 2-year-old campaigns.
Is Forte a true champion able to beat 38 years of adverse history? We can only watch and let him answer that… let him run his race.
When you are the champion, it is just you against the whole world.
Nelson, it was actually Demons Begone who did not finish in the 1987 Kentucky Derby, Capote finished 16th. Demons Begone bled profusely from both nostrils and jockey Pat Day pulled him up.
Demons Begone did not finish and Capote was also eased… DNF as per Equibase.
BTW I was referring to winners of the BCJ in the Derby … hence I did not mention the son of Elocutionist in the compiled tally.
Your tally shows the better suited to 19 furlong horses doing, well better! Before the Breeders Cup …horses still ran in 1 1/16 stakes races in late Oct/early Nov, 9 BCup winners finished top five in the Derby sounds about right, the Derby is 10 furlongs, not 8 1/2…..
Meant 10 fur..
Answer to your rhetoric question is yes, Forte was true champion…..whether or not he wins the Derby….
Thank you Nelson. Very interesting information and well researched.
For some reason(s), Juvenile BC winners just do not transition well from being two year olds to three year olds.
Just curious if you or anyone has a theory as to why.
Thanks Lynda.
I have not read any theories to explain it.
There might be many compounding factors like the heavy toll of pushing young horses to peak in November , abundance of talented hopefuls who develop faster after steady improvements as 2-year-olds (in non-stakes races),
It is a complex topic… remember how an early highly regarded 2-year-old named Instagrand was “preserved” after his spectacular two first wins in order to “make him a better 3-year-old”… he was not able to win again…
Without knowing more details I recall that his owner was the one who decided passing on Del Mar Futurity and on all the following Stakes…
Thank you Nelson.
Yes I remember Instagrand. I checked out what happened to him. He is standing at Taylor Made for $7500.
He has matured into a beautiful stallion.
Great research, but….how did you miss the initial BC Juvenile winner Chief’s Crown? He did, after all, finish 3rd in ’85 Derby to Spend a Buck, then 2nd Preakness and 3rd in Belmont. Add to that his 4 Grade 1 wins that year. Quite a bit more accomplished than many included on your list.
Thanks SJ… I must clarify that I focused on BCJ Winners … I removed the record of the other BCJ competitors (who did not win) in the Derby to make the post shorter…
Therefore, Chief’s Crown should have been listed along with Timber Country & Essential Quality.
You are right SJ …
I missed Chief’s Crown. Should add him as follows:
3rd places : 3 (Chief’s Crown, Timber Country, Essential Quality) … the apostrophe in his name somehow hindered the automatic search in my databases…
It happened to Unbridled’s Song also who finished 5th in the Derby. So another amendment is:
5th places: 3 (Unbridled’s Song, Fly so Free, Game Winner)
Good catch…Thanks !
Also Storm the Court was left out because it was written Storm The Court in another table… Computers are stupid indeed !…LOL
Storm the Court had to be included in the “off the board” list…
Ensuing correction: 22 winners (58%) of the BCJ reached the Derby …
Nelson, that’s a wonderful overview of the BCJ and the Ky derby. To add to your research on the topic, I would throw in the fact that Mr Pletcher has had bad luck bringing his top BCJ runners along the Derby trail. I’ve been digging through equibase and have come up with four of his horses that one or came in second in the BCJ. Two of them, BCJ winners, were undefeated champion 2-year-olds. Neither made it to the Ky derby. Two others were favorites in the BCJ and finished second. One finished 10th in the derby while the other finished 6th.
Forte is a beautiful looking colt, and I wish him well. But Mr Pletcher needs to find a four-leaf clover real fast.
Sorry…”four of his horses that WON or came in second”
Thanks Roberta.
You are right about Pletcher’s champion 2-year-old colts.
I had to leave out my comments about his champions Shanghai Bobby and Uncle Mo to reduce the size of my post.
I also Removed more description about all the horses forced out of the trail due to injuries and the names of the Derby winners without Grade I experience in their 2-year-old races since 1984…
I don’t mind long posts. Especially yours.
Gun Pilot has something in common with the 2022 Kentucky Derby winner, Rich Strike. They both have the dam sire, Smart Strike. I bet he can run all day like Rich Strike, and the difference is he will have a much better jockey.
Steve Haskin –
Thank you for Derby Rankings Week 3. I was not aware that Gun Pilot had run at Oaklawn Park Feb. 4. Missed his allowance race victory. As you mention, he has a pretty solid pedigree, and I like the Smarten – Nodouble nick in his fourth – fifth generation. If the Future Bet Pool 4 is open this weekend, will back Gun Pilot. Need another horse to back in Pool 4. Would like to find a Bolt d’Oro or Violence colt that no one is talking about. Will have a little time this weekend to search the Internet. Thanks for all the info you put out there.
7.5 Furlongs
Signator off Derby Trail. Needs 60 days off.
I just read TDN’s article …Very disappointing but the most important thing is for him to get completely healthy and ready to resume training for the fall and even next year.
I agree Nelson.
Just like Dorothy in the “Wizard of Oz,” Tapit Trice clicked his heels three times and homeward bound he went. At last, the dreary Derby Trail was ignited by this exciting son of Tapit. Todd Pletcher may have been too eager with Dunkirk and Charge It in their sophomore years but he’s being extra cautious with Tapit Trice. Where to next time?
Steve, placing Tapit Trice, a non stakes winner no less, at number 2. is probably the most audacious you’ve ever been. Good for you. I’m in a bind now, which Tapit colt is the most impressive thus far: Signator or Tapit Trice? Decisions, decisions. Both seem to have the cool headed temperament of the mighty Flightline and the exciting Charge It along with their determination to win. Both have pedigrees that should excel at the Classic distance.
I watched “Mary Poppins” sing “Supercalifragilisticexpialidocious” on stage the night before Saturday’s racing at Gulfstrean Park so I should have expected so magic to rub off and it did. If Tapit Trice can keep improving Forte is in deep trouble. I’m not sure what I saw in California but it seemed to lack conviction. Who Knows?
Thanks again, Steve, for the most enjoyable coverage of the Derby Trail. Could this be the year when a son of Tapit finally steals the roses.
Apologize for double pasting of my commentary.
My error, still not up to speed working in the latest version of Word and on this tablet.
Takes awhile for we old dogs to learn the new tricks.
Steve and all, there are a number of explanations and theories being floated for what seems to be a trend for fewer entries in graded stakes dirt races and card cancellations.
One theory that has been discussed frequently is the diminishing numbers of the Thoroughbred foal crops. Since 1990 when the foal crop was 40,000, the size of the crops has been steadily dropping every year with the exception of years 1998-2000 when there was a small increase. Per the Jockey Club, a low of 17,800 was reported in 2021. Estimates for 2022 are slightly higher at 18,200. Many see this statistic as the leading indicator of diminished field sizes and card cancelations because there are fewer foals entering the pipeline that have the talent and stamina to be trained up for the stakes races.
Reductions in foal crops also has the effect of supply and demand economic principles. When demand exceeds supply, prices go up and there is competition for the available supply. This in turn helps explain in part why we are seeing high 6 and 7 figure sale prices. This squeezes out potential buyers who simply cannot afford these prices and explains the growth of the ownership shares market. In examining the ownership of many Thoroughbreds running today, I see that only the very wealthy such as Mr. Zedan can make an outright purchase. Many horses are owned by LLCs that have been formed that include the breeder, racing shares and breeding shares when the colt is retired. It also explains the growth in companies such as West Point Thoroughbreds, Team Valor, Pocket Aces and My Racehorse sll of which sell shares in a racehorse to the general public.
There are explanations for the reduction in foal crops over the past 30 plus years.
For decades until 1990, the horse breeding and racing industry was a vertically integrated business model. The owner or private stable (homebreds) of the horse was in control of every step of the production process. The owner made all the breeding decisions, owned the mares and often the stallions and had dedicated trainers on site to “break the horse” to saddle and condition the horse for racing and in consult with owner made all the decisions as to when and where the horse would race. This same ownership had dedicated jockeys in their employ.
Steve, several years ago you wrote on Blood Horse about the demise of the private stables and the few that have managed to survive. I witnessed this demise first hand when I traveled with a friend to the heartland of Thoroughbred breeding farms around Lexington, Kentucky. It was heart breaking to see the number of breeding farms that had been closed and were up for sale. The same thing was happening in my home state of Virginia to not only horse farms (all breeds) but to small family owned agricultural farms.
Often times the heirs to the farms were not interested in continuing the family business. Others could not pay the inheritance taxes and had no choice but to sell out. Others went out of business as the result of inflationary pressures, downturns in the economy and rising costs and government regulations. Some were the result of poor management, heavy debt loads and no longer being competitive.
In addition to seeing first hand the closing of family owned farms and stables I saw a dramatic change in the business model for horse racing in the 1997 Kentucky Derby. I had taken a hiatus from watching live horse racing after the death of Ruffian eventhough I still followed the sport.
Gone were the names of the owners (with the exception of Clairborne), the trainers (with the exception of D Wayne Lucas and Nick Zito) and gone were the jockeys (with the exception of Pat Day).
Most of you probably recall that last year the Jockey Club initiated limitations on the number of mares in a stallion’s book. This was met with stiff resistance by the bigger breeding farms in Kentucky and there was a threat of lawsuits and passage of a law In the Kentucky State House.
In all fairness the Jockey Club had good intentions. It was meant to level the playing field for small breeders and to slow the line breeding to the same lines over and over again thus narrowing the gene pool.
The business model that is practiced today as the result of the demise of the private stable is lateral. Breeding decisions are often based on computer models or after consultation with bloodstock agents. Most of the foals are sent to auction as yearlings and many are snatched up by pin hookers who prep the yearlings for auction as two year olds. This prep often includes training up to put on exhibit before auction. Horses are sent to training centers such as Mayberry’s or Brennan’s facility before going a trainer facilty such as Bob Baffert or Todd Pletcher for conditioning to race. The trainer makes all the decisions as to when and where and at what distance the horse is raced and usually who the jockey will be. In other words, all the steps from breeding to racing are farmed out to other entities in the supply chain.
Summary:
From1990 to 2019, the size of foal crops dropped 53% and the number of breeding farms during the same time period dropped 56%.
In response to the economic recession the United States experienced in 2009, stud fees were dropped so as to be an incentive to breeding farms to breed mares. Once the economy stabilized, the stud fees stabilized and an increase in stud fees followed.
In 2014, Blood Horse published an article that warned drastic measures were needed to correct the falling number of race starts by 20.2 % and 26% drop in race handle between 2003 and 2013. In 2013, 58, 138 horses in the US and Canada had 367, 567 starts. Based on foal crop projections, that would result in a 25% reduction in race starts by 2022. Reduction is starts would be followed by reductions in field sizes.
The Jockey Club projection for the 2023 crop is predicted to be less than 2022.
Breeding operations, especially the smaller ones, have having taking a hit by the commercial market. Many offerings are RNA. Many breeders are not recovering costs much less making profit off the foals they raise so foal crops numbers are not improving.
One of the drivers for the commercial market today are the first crop sires based on their success on the race track and their pedigrees. Applications for breeding mares to a stallion are carefully screened. Not all mares measure up to the large breeder’s requirements. The other driver in the commercial market is the visual of the yearlings and two year olds. The buyer wants a horse that looks ready to race…tall, big, heavily muscled and very fast in the exhibitions.
Something else that has changed is the demographics of the foal crops. 47% of all foals are bred in Kentucky. Foal crop numbers for New York and California have dropped. There are no first crop sires who were successful on the track in graded stakes races standing in either New York or California or Virginia amd Maryland.
In conclusion, the warnings put forth in the 2014 Blood Horse report appear to have come to fruition.
Steve and all, there are a number of explanations and theories being floated for what seems to be a trend for fewer entries in graded stakes dirt races and card cancellations.
One theory that has been discussed frequently is the diminishing numbers of the Thoroughbred foal crops. Since 1990 when the foal crop was 40,000, the size of the crops has been steadily dropping every year with the exception of years 1998-2000 when there was a small increase. Per the Jockey Club, a low of 17,800 was reported in 2021. Estimates for 2022 were slightly higher at 18,200. Many see this statistic as the leading indicator of diminished field sizes and card cancelations because there are fewer foals entering the pipeline that have the talent and stamina to be trained up for the stakes races.
Reductions in foal crops also has the effect of supply and demand economic principles. When demand exceeds supply, prices go up and there is competition for the available supply. This in turn helps explain in part why we are seeing high 6 and 7 figure sale prices. This squeezes out potential buyers who simply cannot afford these prices and explains the growth of the ownership shares market. In examining the ownership of many Thoroughbreds running today, I see that only the very wealthy such as Mr. Zedan can make an outright purchase. Many horses are owned by LLCs that have been formed that include the breeder, racing shares and breeding shares when the colt is retired. It also explains the growth in companies such as West Point Thoroughbreds, Team Valor, Pocket Aces and My Racehorse sll of which sell shares in a racehorse to the general public.
There are explanations for the reduction in foal crops over the past 30 plus years.
For decades until 1990, the horse breeding and racing industry was a vertically integrated business model. The owner or private stable (homebreds) of the horse was in control of every step of the production process. The owner made all the breeding decisions, owned the mares and often the stallions and had dedicated trainers on site to “break the horse” to saddle and condition the horse for racing and in consult with owner made all the decisions as to when and where the horse would race. This same ownership had dedicated jockeys in their employ.
Steve, several years ago you wrote on Blood Horse about the demise of the private stables and the few that have managed to survive. I witnessed this demise first hand when I traveled with a friend to the heartland of Thoroughbred breeding farms around Lexington, Kentucky. It was heart breaking to see the number of breeding farms that had been closed and were up for sale. The same thing was happening in my home state of Virginia to not only horse farms (all breeds) but to small family owned agricultural farms.
Often times the heirs to the farms were not interested in continuing the family business. Others could not pay the inheritance taxes and had no choice but to sell out. Others went out of business as the result of inflationary pressures, downturns in the economy and rising costs and government regulations. Some were the result of poor management, heavy debt loads and no longer being competitive.
In addition to seeing first hand the closing of family owned farms and stables I saw a dramatic change in the business model for horse racing in the 1997 Kentucky Derby. I had taken a hiatus from watching live horse racing after the death of Ruffian eventhough I still followed the sport.
Gone were the names of the owners (with the exception of Clairborne), the trainers (with the exception of D Wayne Lucas and Nick Zito) and gone were the jockeys (with the exception of Pat Day).
Most of you probably recall that last year the Jockey Club initiated limitations on the number of mares in a stallion’s book. This was met with stiff resistance by the bigger breeding farms in Kentucky and there was a threat of lawsuits and passage of a law In the Kentucky State House.
In all fairness the Jockey Club had good intentions. It was meant to level the playing field for small breeders and to slow the line breeding to the same lines over and over again thus narrowing the gene pool.
The business model that is practiced today as the result of the demise of the private stable is lateral. Breeding decisions are often based on computer models or after consultation with bloodstock agents. Most of the foals are sent to auction as yearlings and many are snatched up by pin hookers who prep the yearlings for auction as two year olds. This prep often includes training up to put on exhibit before auction. Horses are sent to training centers such as Mayberry’s or Brennan’s facility before going a trainer facilty such as Bob Baffert or Todd Pletcher for conditioning to race. The trainer makes all the decisions as to when and where and at what distance the horse is raced and usually who the jockey will be. In other words, all the steps from breeding to racing are farmed out to other entities in the supply chain.
Summary:
From1990 to 2019, the size of foal crops dropped 53% and the number of breeding farms during the same time period dropped 56%.
In response to the economic recession the United States experienced in 2009, stud fees were dropped so as to be an incentive to breeding farms to breed mares. Once the economy stabilized, the stud fees stabilized and an increase in stud fees followed.
In 2014, Blood Horse published an article that warned drastic measures were needed to correct the falling number of race starts by 20.2 % and 26% drop in race handle between 2003 and 2013. In 2013, 58, 138 horses in the US and Canada had 367, 567 starts. Based on foal crop projections, that would result in a 25% reduction in race starts by 2022. Reduction is starts would be followed by reductions in field sizes.
The Jockey Club projection for the 2023 crop is predicted to be less than 2022.
Breeding operations, especially the smaller ones, have having taking a hit by the commercial market. Many offerings are RNA. Many breeders are not recovering costs much less making profit off the foals they raise so foal crops numbers are not improving.
One of the drivers for the commercial market today are the first crop sires based on their success on the race track and their pedigrees. Applications for breeding mares to a stallion are carefully screened. Not all mares measure up to the large breeder’s requirements. The other driver in the commercial market is the visual of the yearlings and two year olds. The buyer wants a horse that looks ready to race…tall, big, heavily muscled and very fast in the exhibitions.
Something else that has changed is the demographics of the foal crops. 47% of all foals are bred in Kentucky. Foal crop numbers for New York and California have dropped. There are no first crop sires who were successful on the track in graded stakes races standing in either New York or California or Virginia amd Maryland.
In conclusion, the warnings put forth in the 2014 Blood Horse report appear to have come to fruition.
Enjoyed your article, Lynda, didn’t mind reading it twice. It seems that racing is suffering at the top and bottom levels. The loss of sportsman breeders certainly has diminished the presence of classically bred horses with eyes on long careers and breeding legacies. We’ve also lost hobby breeders and trainers who would run a few horses at the local track for sport, and maybe cash an occasional bet. Some of that is cultural change of fewer farmers living on the land. I’m sure it’s also discouraging to have a few high volume trainers at every track claiming everything to run through the claiming grinder, especially with slot inflated purses. I’m not qualified to offer solutions. As with most changes i’ve experienced as i get older, i just say it’s not my world anymore.
Lynda, good work. Arguably, it was in the 1980s that present racing model was formulated. The market for horses reached a frenzy around 1986, fueled by lucrative tax breaks and strong foreign demand for American horses. However, the tax act of 1986 followed by the recession and competition from casinos and lotteries burst the speculative bubble.
Here’s a copy of foal registration in the 1980s:
1980 35,679
1981 38,669
1982 42,894
1983 47,236
1984 49,241
1985 50,430
1986 51,296
1987 50,917
1988 49,221
1989 48,235
Davids, it was actually the Economic Recovery Act that spurred the growth of investing in Thoroughbred racehorses as a tax shelter. The 1986 Tax Reform Act hurt the Thoroughbred breeding industry though it was not realized at the time. If you look at the foal crop stats for the 80’s decade you will see the size of foal crops increased steadily from 1981 to 1887 and started to decline in 1988 and has been declining ever since.
Imports/Exports have always been one of the indicators of the state of the economy. In looking at a graph of the import/export of Thoroughbreds in the 1980’s, yes, there was an increase in the exports of American Thoroughbreds to other countries including Japan.That leveled off with the occasional uptick in some years now largely the result of exports to Japan.
Horses are considered to be an agriculture commodity in the United States….that is all horse breeds not just Thoroughbreds.
At least in my lifetime, it has been very sensitive to the downturns in our economy.
Not only was there a boom of the Thoroughbred breeding industry in the 1980’s there was also a boom in the production of all horse breeds. When the Thoroughbred breeding industry bubble burst, the breeding of other horse breeds suffered the same f downturn.
The size of Thoroughbred foal crops is one of several factors that has resulted in smaller field sizes, there are others.
Lynda, you are probably not aware but in Australia, during the 1980s, they had similar tax breaks in the racing industry along with their film industry in an attempt to grow these industries. It worked for racing less so in film.
Don’t worry I’ve been reading The Blood-Horse since I was a kid so the rise/slump/rise/slump in bloodstock is a common occurrence the world over.
Where Australia has advance in racing, while the US has stagnated and Europe to a certain extent, is wagering. Betting on thoroughbred racing is a well established pastime in Australia for well over a century, strongly reflected in the average amount wagered on horse racing per capita. On average the Australian adult punts $735 a year, while that figure plummets to $274 in the UK, $146 in France and $43 in the USA. Revenue streams like this are essential in ensuring the prosperity of the industry going forward.
Davids, you are correct. I was not aware of the tax break incentives in n Australia. Here in the United States most tax break incentives for film, TV etc comes under each state not under the Federal Government other than PBS which is partially funded by the Federal Government via tax payer dollars.
As to horse breeding and racing here in the US, breeding incentives and tax breaks are on a state by state basis. Since horses are considered an agricultural commodity, a land use designation as a horse farm results in reduced real estate taxes for example.
The 1981 Economic Recovery Act included the tax shelter for investors in horse breeding (not just Thoroughbreds) largely because of The American Horse Council which is powerful and wealthy lobbying group. 1981 Recovery Act was passed by Congress in an effort to stimulate the American economy after a lengthy recession following the crude oil crisis that erupted when the Shah of Iran was deposed.
In September 2014, Racing Information Services Australia Pty Ltd (RISA) purchased the assets of the Australian Stud Book (ASB). Subsequently on 13 April 2015, RISA along with its assets the ASB and AGT merged with the Australian Racing Board (ARB) to form one entity named Racing Australia Pty Ltd.
Racing Australia is the peak body for Australian breeding and racing consisting of the six State and two Territory racing authorities which are recognised by the Australian Rules of Racing as Principal Racing Authorities (PRAs).
This is what the US racing needs. IMO. Racing in Australia has blossomed under this auspice. However, reNSW is stupidly trying to compete with the historic Spring Racing Carnival instead of working alongside each other. Stupidity is a human, universal.
PS: Spring Racing Carnival is in Victoria, Australia.
US racing definitely needs something. Getting everyone on the same song sheet will be the biggest challenge.
An excellent summary of recent bloodstock and breeding history, Linda. I spend a lot of time tracing thoroughbred families, trolling for stakes winners (I call it indexing). While ridiculously time consuming, I also find myself spotting key trends — for example, when Davids mentioned the dominance of Danehill in Australian pedigrees, I began to notice just how dominant they are. Another trend is the vanishing of little known a/o minor stakes winners as sires (they usually appear as dam sires) in a stakes winners’ line. Today all those horses would have been gelded as early as their 2YO years, part of what’s leading to a lack of diversity in sire lines. Unsoundness shows up in heart-breaking ways, too — last night under a single mare’s produce record of about 10 foals I noticed two (or was it three?) horses that had euthanized on the track due to catastrophic injuries. Sickening.
Ms Blacktype, something I read a few days on FB page that I follow is slightly off topic but I think it applies Thoroughbred racing.
The page owner lives in Vermont and is a retired eventing rider and trainer.
You probably know that the Thoroughbred was the go to breed for eventing, cross country, the hunt and often endurance racing for many, many decades (going back to Colonial times) and was the mount for several of our US Presidents who fought in wars.
Living in Virginia I knew people who raised Thoroughbreds not for racing but for eventing, cross country, point to point etc. and showing hunter on the flat.
The owner of the FB page started out training and riding Thoroughbreds (he later switched to Morgans, another versatile breed).
The Thoroughbred does have stamina, durability, endurance and in the jumping events, shows great scope.
In recent years all of these venues with the exception of endurance have dramatically shortened the length of the course from 7-10 miles per event to 3-5 miles per event; a reduction from 30 miles to 15. The number of deaths and fatal accidents have increased. Last summer for example there were 6 horse deaths and 3 rider deaths. You might recall (if you watch the Olympic Equestrian events) that one of the horses broke down and died in a water hazard.
In reading the comments from the people who follow his page who are eventers, the feeling was that shortening the course (along with changes in course design) is the cause of these breakdowns and sudden deaths. The training regimine is no longer focused on stamina and endurance. One individual commented that in the old days, eventing horses were put a set of shoes every ten days.
Now I am making a big leap here when I say that most Thoroughbreds usually get a set of new racing plates about every 4 to 6 weeks.
Decades ago there were many mile and a half to 2 mile and sometimes 3 mile races. Today a colt will only run in one mile and a half race. Stamina and endurance both in the bloodlines and in the actual races for speed.
I am not a saying by any means that shorter distance races are contributing to injuries and breakdowns but rather than training methods (for dirt races) may be.
Recently a training center similar to Fair Hill was built in Texas. WinStar is in the process or may have already completed a training center similar to Fair Hill in Kentucky. While they will continue to use outside use outside trainers, they will employ in house trainers and assistant trainers.
Seems like Cave Rock has run out of time. Without any breeze at this stage relegation of the ultra-fast son of Arrogate is justified. Also warranted was taking out Cyclone Mischief after his debacle in the Holy Bull.
I see the powerful Reincarnate debuting in the ranking at a nice 8th position. Verifying and Gun Pilot are also entering the top 15.
Nice to see Signator hanging in there as he has already worked four times since December 31st… this we know thanks to Steve sharing the exclusive information about Signator’s exercise on February 1st.
We know Shug McGaughey is true to his philosophy of listening to the horses and letting them tell when they are primed to shine. The Hall of Fame trainer are among the few who are immune to Derby Fever Syndrome.
Orb (1st) and Code of Honor (2nd) are testaments to the efficacy of Shug McGaughey’s way.
What are the similarities between the 2-year-old performances Orb and Code of Honor to the one of Signator?
Orb ran 4 times as a 2-year-old starting on August 18th and breaking his maiden on November 24th. His 3-year-old campaign started with a win in an Allowance on January 26th followed by victories in the Fountain of Youth and the Florida Derby. He was undefeated in three (3-year-old) starts before taking the Derby.
If you ask me, I would say that Signator’s two first races were more promising than those of Orb …
Code of Honor, on the other hand, was highly regarded 2-year-old since his winning debut followed by a 2nd in the prestigious Champagne Stakes. An ill-timed fever ousted Code of Honor from the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and he was not 100% in Shug’s eyes for the Remsen Stakes.
The son of Noble Mission returned in the Mucho Macho Man with a disappointing 4th as the 4-5 favorite. Shug recognized that he should have prepared Code of Honor better for his 3-year-old debut…
Orb and Code of Honor were able to run in January while Signator has not done so. Then, you could say that the son of Tapit is lagging behind in form.
Under Shug McGaughey’s model the game plan for the son of Tapit is mainly NOT to hustle the youngster on the road to the Triple Crown.
Sometimes I ask myself what the Derby quality would be if more trainers heed Shug McGaughey’s example …
Nelson, what Shug McGaughey has in spades is the prior knowledge of how certain families develop. When to start and at what speed and when to stop. Let’s hope that Signator progresses with all the promise we saw in him last year. Tapit Trice couldn’t have been more impressive on Saturday. Is it possible that the two grey sons of Tapit are going to fight it out for supremacy on the first Saturday in May?
Yes Davids. Another factor in Shug’s successful managing of talented horses is the complete harmony of ownership expectations with his philosophy.
You may remember how another brilliant son of Tapit, Greatest Honour, was on his way to be a chief contender in the 2021 Derby… but he suffered from bone bruising in his front ankles after finishing 3rd as the 4-5 favorite in the Florida Derby. Greatest Honour, like Orb, developed into a strong 3-year-old after steady progression during his 2-year-old campaign. He is entering stud this year as one of the most promising sires by Tapit… given his great female family his $7,500 stud fee looks like a real bargain…
Shug might have the right horses also in Game Change and General Jim… who knows?
Talking about grey prospects, I can count at least dozen in my watch list led by Tapit Trice, Hit Show, Shopper’s Revenge, Reincarnate and Faustin.
Tapit Trice is making this crop look better …
Nelson, it’s awful how history can repeat, and repeat. I wrote this only last week:
“Signator has been spotted by many, myself included, as a threat in the Derby but he is yet to win a stakes race. Let’s hope that disappointment is not around the corner. Who trained Greatest Honour? Memories.”
Oh, well. Down to nine Tapit sons now. Shame, but that’s racing. Let’s hope Signator makes a full recovery.
Lynda has shared TDN’s report about Signator taking time off… just hoping he gets well enough to be a factor this fall and even stronger next year…
In the long term this set back could be a positive.
I hope so…
A lot to think about. Still torn in different directions. What about the Filly, Tom Amoss’s Hoosier Philly, heard anything about her?
She is scheduled to return to the track in the Rachel Alexandra Stakes next weekend.
Looking forward to see Tapit Trice in his next progression in preparation for the upcoming Triple Crown races. Will both he and Forte run in the Fountain of Youth? I would think that Pletcher will ship one out to run at New York or Tampa.
Thanks for your brilliant analysis of all the contenders for the Derby.
Terri, I will be interested to hear what Steve has to say about Pletcher’s plans for the two colts. Pletcher rarely enters two runners in the FOY (or the Fl Derby), particularly if he has the expected favorites as Forte and Tapit Trice should be. The Tampa derby would be a good spot for TT. I’d love to see the next Ky derby winner prep in my backyard. It’s been a few years since Always Dreaming.
The real question may be, who is taking the Road to the Derby through Turfway!? Thanks again Steve, nobody does it better than you!
Thank you. Keep an eye on Funtastic Again. I’m hearing good things about him.
Since the list for Kentucky Derby rankings are starting to resemble a hodge podge assemblance of what have you done recently to what have you ever done topped with sprinkles from the flavor of the week to produce a mishmash of would of, could of and should of leaders-I think I’ll add my own spices to this stew…
Hejazi
1. On Jan. 15 Mike Smith decided to let H take the lead and won in hand going the last half furlong in 6.17…prior Hejazi was all over the place in the American Pharoah…going 8 wide on the first turn…rushing up, then falling back, and rushing up again.
2. Would be the second most expensive yearling, as I believe, to win the Kentucky Derby behind Fusaich Pegasus.
3. Scheduled to run in the San Felipe in March the same race FP won in 2000 leading up to his Derby win.
4. Have been working out twice in the last 10 days.
5. Bred to run….
6. Owned by Amr Zedan which would give a second opportunity after Taiba to ‘stick it’ to Churchill Downs, Inc.
7. Just like last year when Taiba was transferred to Tim Yakteen if Baffert is denied an injunction then they already have gone down this path.
8. Would be the only second NY bred (Funny Cide) to win KD.
Second, second, second….the dueces are wild.
With the lasix ban its hard to figure …he certainly ran better with lasix, will come back off it now….
Hejazi sold as a 2 year old
Any news on Fort Bragg?
Working well, but so many Baffet horses to keep tabs on
Word is that Arabian Knight will have some time off before his next race so thus likely means the Rebel is skipped for the Arkansas Derby.
I think you will see Faustin in a 2 turn race next out. Not uncommon for Baffert to put 2 sprints into them before stretching out. I wouldn’t see why this horse would have any distance limitations unless he has breathing issues.
He shouldnt have distance problems. Lewis was the perfect spot, Instead he put him in a race he wasnt going to win
Years ago a 7 furlong race was a great way to start the 3 year old season. Not emptying the tank but getting a solid foundation. San Vincent has a wonderful history being utilized to move a horse forward.
Ive been preaching that for years
Yes, you have been preaching that! I also like the 7 furlong race as it seems to me that Trainers actually use this as a prep but not care as much as winning….
I don’t understand why they can’t encompass the Swale, San Vicente etc into the point system anyway. The points program needs remodeling now as the trainers have engineered a system that suits them but takes away from the intention of the prep races in the first place.
More points for the major preps, shave points off the 50 point win races and 20 point win races a smidgen while giving the sprints 10 points so it makes the point system more dynamic for the punters and fans.
Yes,an impressive history of moving hordes forward, but only4 or 5 Kentucky Derby winners.
Hi Steve – Banishing looks to be running in an allowance race on the Risen Star undercard. Verifying and Victory Formation both like to be forward which could set up nicely at 1 1/8 for Disarm coming from off of the pace if he can shake off the rust from his layoff. I would be glad to see Disarm running strongly at the end and a third place finish would get him 15 Derby points. This race could be a good sharpener and stepping stone to the LA Derby for Disarm. Glad to get Disarm at 45-1 in KDFW2.
Agree on all points. But he better be a good horse.
Damon’s Mound had his 2nd work yesterday, :48 flat for 4F, 3/81. Risen Star, maybe?
I want a Tapit to win the Derby so badly ! the Belmont is in his Pocket now is the time for Tapit Trice. Good trainer, excellent pedigree and easy on the eyes. I hope he stays healthy
Prairie Hawk flying under the radar – good one, Steve.
Tapits in the Ky Derby are not for me.
Tapit Trice for the Belmont though, I’m all in.
Cyclone Mischief FB page has quote from Tyler…at quarter pole he started making noise, switched off lead.
No details on “noise”
Connections thanked Tyler for taking care of him.
That makes sense. Something had to have happened to him.
Palm Meadows was shutdown for resurfacing so that’s why he had to move. I love Reincarnate , great work and if he takes a step forward like Newgate, (He beat him in the Sham) he could be another star to watch. Loved Taprit Trice’s Run and he sure could be a star but i wonder why he ran in that race. Could it be like Cyclone Mischief and needs LASIX. I’ll wait for the FOY to see if there is any cause for concern
Aha! Thank you Mark. I wondered too about Tapit Trice in the allowance. Surprised and disappointed. As you said Fountain of Youth will tell all. I had Cyclone Mischief ranked high because he broke his maiden without Lasix. But something went bad with him. I know Dale Romans loved him, but Dale loves all his horses. That was too bad to be true.
Factoid. Dale Romans 0 -45 in 3 yrold stakes in Jan and Feb at Gulfstream. That along with No Lasix was the reason I didn’t throw mone6 his way
Good afternoon all. Thanks Steve for well thought out list. It has given me a couple of colts to take a look at.
Couple of things, still looking for the colt that checks all my boxes: connections, pedigree; progression; workouts..just a short list.
Baffert may not be the only trainer who will possibly have to farm out his Derby contenders. Linda Rice is facing a decision on her appeal. 5 year suspension of her license in New York and $50,000 fine.
Checked the points ranking on KD site, little or no change there.
There is some chatter out there that the points system needs some modifications. The 10, 20 point races are not attracting many colts. Trainers, owners etc holding out for the 40 pts and up races.
Not surprised that you added Tapit Trice, just not expecting that high. Cyclone Mischief was disappointing. Not read any explanations.
Have a great week everyone.
Finally some sunshine for which I am very thankful.
Urggggg. I thought because Rice was still training that had all been settled. Five years might as well be a lifetime ban these days.
She is still training pending the outcome of her appeal.
Yes Lynda, the 50 points for a win in a prep for a major prep guaranteeing a start in the Kentucky Derby seems wrong.
Davids, actually 40 points earns a gate in the Derby.
Actually Lynda a whole lot less on occasions. Lol. Nonetheless, the races I am referring to have 50 points for the winner.
Was at Gulfstream Saturday and saw Tapit Trice.
Broke a bit slow definitely a concern
Saez brought him outside, does the horse not like the inside feels pressure?
Saez really had to ride him hard to get going, once going though he went.
The most impressive colt on the day.
GL to all
John
Hi Steve
Thank you for providing another thought-provoking analysis on your top 15 Derby contenders, and those mentioned in your KOTD segment. I was delighted to see 9 of my top 12 horses listed in your top 12. Several of those 9 horses closed at big odds in KD Future Wagers Pool 3; Tapit Trice, 45-1, Practical Move, 58-1, Signator, 34-1, Giant Mischief, 27-1 and Instant Coffee, 15-1.
I’m looking forward to see how Hit Show performs in the Withers, coming up on Saturday. I boxed him with the entire Pool 3 field in my exacta wager. Hit Show’s pedigree is what got my attention early on. He’s a Gary and Mary West homebred that’s bred to run all day. The 9 furlong Withers should be right up his alley, and the Classic distance should be well within his range, IMO.
Hit Show should run big. Those are all great bets. Should be an exciting Derby trail for you. Good luck
Thanks Steve
Yes indeed, I’m very excited about this year’s KD trail. I’m looking forward to this weekend’s Derby Futures Pool 4. There could be a few bombers worth betting in the exacta wagering. Obviously, we wouldn’t see Tapit Trice at 45-1, like he closed at in Pool 3.
It would come as no surprise if he closed at single digit odds when Pool 4 closes on Sunday, 2-12.
BTW, I have a $100.00 win bet on Hit Show, at 77-1, in Pool 3.
Good luck to you as well, Steve.
Another well-thought-out rankings, Steve. There was some discussion on last week’s blog on where you would put Tapit Trice — no one thought it would be as high as No. 2! I very much like him and hope he confirms that high placement in his next race. Gun Pilot impressed as well, but it never occurred to me to put him in my Top 12. We should find out a lot about these three year olds in the next couple of weeks, as some make their 3YO debuts and others face stakes competition for the first time.
It’s an exciting time of the year! Thanks so much for helping put it all in perspective for us.
I normally would never do that, but I never thought I would put a neck maiden winner at No. 7 last week. Partly because I really like him and partly because I don’t like that many horses at this point. Might as well take a shot with unproven horses who have impressed me
Decisions like moving TT to No.2 — and making a sound argument in favor of your decision — are why we all avidly read your column.
You’re top six look rock solid, this early….from there it’s a drop off, in my opinion, the early stakes being so-so at best….I’d like to know if the Genius Jimmy camp are getting a case of Derby fever, after fitting him with blinkers and watching him break his maiden on turf, at 9 furlongs….he strung them out all the way— halfway thru the race its looking like he will slow down but he crushed, 4 lengths on turf is like 10 lengths on dirt— he didn’t break a sweat..
I looked up Genius Jimmy and found out Dennis O’Neill bought him as a 2yo for a whopping $30K…..he owns him, along with several others…trainer is McCarthy, and that is a bit perplexing….I looked thru his works, this horse has seemingly never missed a beat, a long spread of works, to go along with his four maiden races, each one better that the previous race—with the huge jump up in his Feb 4th effort, which came with the blinkers added—as well as the lasix—first try was on dirt, then three two-turn turf races, the owners are playing with “house money”, and I just wonder what are the plans, for this bargain buy? He wins by four, with a bigger gap to third place–fast splits and fast final time maybe you could do some Haskinization, on this one, and see if they might be looking for a Derby points race?
Hi Steve – Banishing fired a bullet work on FEB 5 at the FG for his next possible start in the Risen Star on FEB 18. That race looks to be loaded with Verifying and Disarm also possible. I hope Disarm runs in the Risen Star and runs well. Like you said he may not be ready for this yet coming off of a long layoff, but as you said he is talented and his MSW sure was impressive. Glad you kept him in your top 15 with his works progressing and the Risen Star only 2 weeks away now.
I saw that this morning and added it. But it was too late to put him back in the rankings. He’ll be back next week. But I’m sorry he missed his allowance race and has to go in the Risen Star off a maiden win and only two starts. He would have romped in that allowance race.
curly Jack going to run there as well
Curky Jack going to run there as well , so it should be tough. I think you fill see Instant Coffee tumble. Just my opinion
Thank you Steve. Your insights are invaluable. I’m going to read this several times because every time I do things become clearer.