2023 Derby Rankings – Week 4
With such a mish mash at the bottom of the Top 15 and basically groping in the dark, and with the 50-point races hopefully about to sort things out, this is a good week to go back to a “Derby Dozen,” and let those at the bottom of the list, those knocking on the door, and those who still have not started this year sort themselves out until we have a clearer picture of what exactly we’re dealing with and who the real Derby contenders are. ~ Steve Haskin
Derby Rankings: Feb. 13, 2023 – Week 4
By Steve Haskin
1—Forte (Todd Pletcher, Violence – Queen Caroline, by Blame)
What do you write about every week about a 2-year-old champion and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner who is still ranked No. 1 on most everyone’s Derby rankings and is not going to run until March 4? That is still three weeks away, which seems like an eternity. What you do is wait for new exciting faces to emerge who you feel are special enough to replace him. Well, we’re six weeks into 2023 and we haven’t found any such horses, unless you feel Arabian Knight, with two lifetime starts and one stakes victory against questionable competition, is one. The fact is, not a single 3-year-old this year has run a faster Thoro-graph number than Forte did in the Juvenile. So, with a dearth of fast horses and exciting performances up to this point we just have to keep finding new things to say about him and keep him on top. Pletcher certainly isn’t rushing him, working him a leisurely five furlongs in 1:03 2/5. I imagine he will start cranking down on him next week, as he will have to be sharp for the Fountain of Youth Stakes with only two starts before the Kentucky Derby. But after watching the Mucho Macho Man and Holy Bull Stakes I have major questions about the talent level of the stakes horses we’ve seen so far in Florida.
2—Tapit Trice (Todd Pletcher, Tapit – Danzatrice, by Dunkirk)
Although he has not run in a stakes yet I have no doubt he would have won the Holy Bull Stakes handily. And his Future Book odds plummeted after his stunning allowance victory on the undercard, so you know how highly he is regarded by the Vegas oddsmakers, and he got pounded down to 15-1 third choice in the Future Wager. I have been raving about this colt for several weeks and that was first based on his neck maiden score. He is the most visually impressive colt I’ve seen this year and there is nothing left now but to look at his speed figures, which all show the kind of progression you want to see. Not only has his Brisnet speed figures gone from an 85 to a 96 to a 99, his late pace figures have gone from a pair of 99s to a 107. So although he started off his career running fastest at the end with strong numbers, he still upped that quite a bit in his last start. His Beyer speed figures have jumped from a 73 to an 87 to a 92, which mirrors his Thoro-Graph numbers. While he still needs to get a bit faster he has shown a steady progression on Thoro-Graph going from an 8 3/4 to a 6 1/2 to a 4 1/2. If he keeps up that pattern of improving two points a race he will be ready for a Derby-winning performance after his next two starts. This progression is far better than if he had made a gigantic leap forward and then have to worry about a “bounce.” Quickly, you might not be familiar with Dunkirk, but he was an exceptionally talented colt trained by Pletcher who we will go into in more detail next week.
3—Arabian Knight (Bob Baffert, Uncle Mo – Borealis Night, by Astrology)
Well, we have two weeks for a ruling to be made whether or not we’re going to see some kind of mass exodus from the Baffert barn. Will we see a repeat of last year when Baffert’s two big Derby horses were sent to Tim Yakteen, who has his own big Derby horse this year, or will we see them spread around, or maybe we won’t see them going anywhere and Churchill Downs will have to bite the bullet and accept Baffert and whoever he decides to run in the Derby. As of now Arabian Knight’s next race is undecided. Having already been to Oaklawn, would Baffert want to ship east again with him, not once but possibly twice and then again to Kentucky? That is a lot of shipping for such a lightly raced horse. The other alternative is to keep him home for the more traditional route, the San Felipe and Santa Anita Derby. But the biggest question is still, how good is this horse? He has dominated both his races, but has he beaten any quality horses? So, there are many questions surrounding this colt. The first answer we need is who will be training him.
4—Practical Move (Tim Yakteen, Practical Joke – Ack Naughty, by Afleet Alex)
He continues to train brilliantly for his next Baffert battle in the San Felipe, working five furlongs in a bullet :59 1/5, fastest of 44 works at the distance. Do you think he might be an overlay at 83-1 in the Future Wager? Like with Forte and several other top 2-year-olds we just sit back and wait for March 4 when we likely will clear up this muddled Derby picture and tell us who the leading contenders really are and not have to go searching into maiden and allowance races to find them. But for a race still three weeks away this colt looks awfully sharp right now. Let’s remember that he already has plenty of bottom with five starts, two of them at a mile and 1 1/16 miles, and in his most recent race, a resounding victory over three Baffert horses, he earned a lofty 105 Brisnet speed figure, by far the best of his career, as well as a career-high 3 3/4 Thoro-Graph number. However, if you follow the Beyer figures he still needs to get faster, so we’ll know more after the San Felipe. Right now he looks solid and that’s enough based on what we’ve seen so far this year.
5—Blazing Sevens (Chad Brown, Good Magic – Trophy Girl, by Warrior’s Reward)
He continues to work well for his debut, likely in the Fountain of Youth Stakes or Tampa Bay Derby, breezing a half in :49 4/5 at Payson Park. I found it interesting that his Brisnet and Beyer figures in his fourth-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile were faster than his victory in the Champagne Stakes the race before. That keeps him on an upward trajectory. And as I mentioned last week, it looks as if the only reason that didn’t hold true on Thoro-Graph is because he lost ground in the Champagne and saved ground in the Juvenile. I also like the fact that he was able to blow his field away by 6 1/4 lengths in his career debut at Aqueduct, overcoming a rough start and racing a bit greenly in the upper stretch, and then being eased in the final 100 yards. And I like the way his Brisnet late pace figures have gone from an 82 to an 84 to a 98 to a 100 while racing at four different distances at three different racetracks. He has no flaws in his stride and just looks like a dependable horse who is always going to run his race no matter what the distance is.
6—Hit Show (Brad Cox, Candy Ride – Actress, by Tapit)
People are going to look at Withers Stakes victory and see the agonizingly slow final time of 1:54 3/5 and closing fractions and toss the race. But we have seen enough of Aqueduct in the late fall and winter to know that time means little here. We saw Early Voting win last year’s Withers in 1:55 4/5 and go on to win the Preakness, running faster at 1 3/16 miles than he did at 1 1/8 miles. We saw Mo Donegal win the Remsen in a hard-fought photo in 1:53 3/5 and then go on to win the Belmont Stakes. So, two of the three Triple Crown race winners last year had run similar slow times at Aqueduct in the fall and winter. There were a lot of positives to take out of his victory. He drew off from a tough stakes horse in Arctic Arrogance to win by 5 1/2 lengths with his ears pricked the final sixteenth. He was trapped down on the inside for a good portion of the race and just roared by Arctic Arrogance, who had already run big going 1 1/8 miles at Aqueduct. His Beyer figures have climbed steadily from 60 to 71 to 82 to 91 and his Thoro-Graph numbers have already made a huge leap from “12 1/4″ to a “4 3/4.” He won despite racing greenly in the stretch, drifting in about five paths after clearing the runner-up, who finished 6 1/4 lengths ahead of the third horse. He had won his previous race impressively with first time Lasix and now won even more impressively without Lasix. This race on this surface got him dead-fit and he can now wait for the Wood Memorial with a ton of bottom under him. He has now run four times at four different tracks at four different distances in three different states. He has done a lot for a May 9 foal who won’t even be 3 on Derby Day, which is why he is still a bit green and why they gave him time to develop. With his stamina-oriented pedigree, his closing kick, his ability to break sharply and then sit anywhere from two to nine lengths off the pace, and his ability to travel and handle any track, how can you not look at him as a legitimate Derby contender.
7—Giant Mischief (Brad Cox, Into Mischief – Vertical Oak, by Giant Oak)
After working five furlongs in :59 4/5 in company with Verifying, second fastest of 62 works at the distance, he no doubt is sharp and ready for a big effort in the Risen Star Stakes. You’re not going to find any big names in the bottom of his female family and none other than Giant’s Causeway in his entire female family, so we have no idea how far it can carry Into Mischief on top. All we can go by for now is what we’ve seen on the track, and we have seen a horse with a big turn of foot who also is a fighter and has won at 5 1/2 furlongs and a mile. Although Cox does start some of his young horses at Horseshoe Indianapolis, the Indiana track is not exactly known as a launch pad for Derby horses. But he just keeps getting better and should have won the Springboard Mile had it not been for a horrendous start. He has yet to face a legitimate Derby contender so we’ll just have to see what he does against classier opposition. He Brisnet Prime Power rating is ranked second of the 39 horses in the Future Wager. Don’t ask for an explanation on what that means, but if you follow Brisnet it obviously is an important rating and worth mentioning.
8—Reincarnate (Bob Baffert, Good Magic – Allanah, by Scat Daddy)
Once again, we are faced with a dilemma trying to figure out what this colt’s immediate future is. Baffert has already lost one promising 3-year-old with Harlocap going to Steve Asmussen to point for the Risen Star Stakes. So we just wait and see if he too will wind up with another trainer. It is so hard to gauge the Southern California 3-year-olds when all the good ones who have run this year are from the same barn. With Cave Rock following Corniche last year as Baffert’s latest big 2-year-old to fail to make it back for the Derby and the loss of Newgate to a minor injury, Reincarnate, a 16-1 winner of the Sham Stakes, has climbed up the Baffert ladder right behind Arabian Knight. But Reincarnate looks to be the real deal as his speed figures continue to get dramatically faster and he has already shown he is a fighter who doesn’t like to get passed in the stretch. And he has the pedigree to run all day. He’s been training brilliantly, with his latest work a six-furlong drill in 1:11 3/5 in company with National Treasure, and we’ll just have to see what the future brings for him and where e shows up next.
9—Banishing (Brendan Walsh, Ghostzapper – Dowager, by A. P. Indy
Walsh fortunately was able to find another allowance race for him at Fair Grounds on Saturday, but this one looks to be a lot tougher than the one he scratched out of, which in a way is a good thing. But I think he fits very well with the Risen Star field, which surely has no world beaters. By missing his last race, Walsh will either have to then squeeze in two stakes races in a short span of time or just put it all on the line in one of the 100-pointers and hope he can get enough points to make it into the Derby. He showed he is back on track with a pair of strong five-furlong works, the most recent being a 1:01 1/5 drill. He still hasn’t faced winners so that is a test he will have to pass on Saturday. Needless to say everything will have to go perfectly from now on, but on the bright side his two races have been at a mile and 1 1/16 miles, so he does have some bottom, and he was brilliant breaking is maiden last out by 8 1/2 lengths, looking a lot more mature and much smoother than he did in his career debut. Numbers-wise his Brisnet figure jumped from a 78 to a 96 and his Beyer number from a 65 to a 90. Also his Brisnet late pace figure went from a 75 to a 101 and his Thoro-Graph number improved from a “12” to a “7.” So you can see the tremendous improvement he showed all around.
10—General Jim (Shug McGaughey, Into Mischief – Inspired by Grace, by Culin)
The more I watch his races the better I like him. He just runs hard on all kinds of surfaces and I simply like everything I see, whether it’s on dirt or grass, one turn or two turns, and if you like consistency he always manages to be in the same position in the first two calls in all his races. Despite running in the Swale Stakes he doesn’t look like a sprinter, doesn’t run like a sprinter, and isn’t bed to be a sprinter. And to get back on my pulpit, which I have not been on in a number of years, let me ask, what does General Jim have in common with Secretariat, Seattle Slew, Spectacular Bid, Affirmed, Dr. Fager, Damascus, Buckpasser, Citation, Whirlaway, Swaps, Majestic Prince, Arts and Letters, Sword Dancer, Northern Dancer, Riva Ridge, and Foollsh Pleasure, just to name a few, who started off the Derby trail in a sprint, something that’s not done anymore, mainly because Churchill Downs has refused to give points in sprint races and trainers today just don’t do that anymore, except for an old school trainer like McGaughey. Yes, General Jim did race on January 1 in a one-mile race, but that was a drop back to one turn, just as the Swale was a drop back in distance. John Nerud once told me trainers did that to give their horses much-needed sharpness before stretching them out in distance. Obviously no one is comparing General Jim to those horses, but it is good to see a Derby-caliber horse use a race like the Swale to hopefully start him off on the Derby trail, with his next stop likely the Gotham. By the way, how many truly great horses have won the Derby in this century or even back through the ‘90s?
11—Victory Formation (Brad Cox, Tapwrit – Smart N Soft, by Smart Strike)
All I can do is ask the question, how is he going to fare breaking from post 13 in Saturday’s Risen Star Stakes? Fortunately, he does have good early speed and none of the immediate seven horses inside him look like they have the speed to outrun him. So he could wind up in a decent position outside Harlocap and Determinedly, but he is going to have to break sharply and have things set up for him going into the first turn. Flavien Prat sticks with him after their victory in the Smarty Jones Stakes and that certainly will help. Cox also has Angel of Empire and Tapit’s Conquest in the race as he tries to sort out all his 3-year-olds, so another question to ponder is whether Cox runs him or waits for Rebel Stakes the following week where he has already won a stakes. Victory Formation and Tapit’s Conquest worked five furlongs in a sharp 1:00 2/5 in company over the weekend. Let’s also remember that Victory Formation is undefeated and that’s pretty rare with this cop of 3-year-olds, and he knows how to beat you by open lengths or in a tight finish.
12—Red Route One (Steve Asmussen, Gun Runner – Red House, by Tapit)
I easily could have chosen between 10 to 12 horses to fill this final spot. While he doesn’t fit the profile of a Derby winner, he does fit the profile of the late-closing longshot that rallies for second or third. And we know he will stay the mile and a quarter. He is one of those you like to bet on because you’re really never out of it knowing at some point he will come running. Between Asmussen, Cox, Pletcher, and Baffert it is going to take some divine act for the little guy to sneak in this year. But with racing you never know. If he didn’t have such bad luck in the Kentucky Jockey Club he very well could have been a Top 5 horse type of horse. But as it turned out he has to be considered an intriguing Future Wager bet at 58-1.
KNOCKING ON THE DOOR
You know it’s not your typical Derby trail when there are nine horses on the Future Wager list who have started either once or twice. And with a number of last year’s big 2-year-olds making late starts you really have to dig deep to find the true contenders.
We lost two Derby hopefuls this week when NEWGATE and SIGNATOR suffered minor injuries that knocked them off the trail. If you’re wondering why INSTANT COFFEE is no longer ranked, we can only go by instinct while trying to put the pieces of the puzzle surrounding him together at the risk of being totally off base. First off he has not worked since the LeComte Stakes on January 21. I have found one thing when contacting trainers. If a trainer is good about answering your texts quickly and you ask him why his horse hasn’t worked and if he is OK and you don’t hear back from him you have no choice but to be on alert that something could be amiss. It’s not always the case, but when that trainer then enters three horses in a stakes, and the one horse you expect to see in there as the favorite is not among them then I feel it is best to drop that horse until more is known about what is going on with him. For what it’s worth, Instant Coffee is still taking a lot of money in the Future Wager and was only 18-1 on Sunday afternoon, which would lead one to believe he is still on course for the Derby. What that course is I have no idea. But I feel it is best to put him on the other side of the door this week and if we find out he is doing fine he obviously will jump right back into the fray. Better to be here for now than take up a spot high on the list if there are questions.
The toughest decision this week was whether to put Sam F. Davis winner LITIGATE in the Top 12. The final decision was to wait one more race. The main reason were the dismal performances by DUBYUHNELL and PRAIRIE HAWK, who were never in the race due in good part to terrible trips early on. Litigate overcame a bad post by breaking like a bullet and getting to the inside and then easing to the outside for a clear run. He was hard ridden a long way out and to the wire, closing his last two fractions in a sluggish :26 2/5 and :07. I do like him from a visual standpoint, as he has a nice fluid stride and good low extension. And his pedigree is fantastic, with the best of the Phipps bloodlines on top and bottom, as well as Claiborne and Darby Dan at the very top. This colt needs to get much faster and against better horses, but he definitely is a work in progress. It’s easy to say he looks more like a Belmont horse, but I still want to see how much improvement he can show between now and his next race. All the pieces seem to be there, it’s just a question of how long they will take to come together.
It’s nice to see Eoin Harty with a promising colt for Godolphin again. Harty, who had good success for Godolphin years ago, finished second in the Sam F. Davis Stakes with the 21-1 shot GROVELAND, who closed well along the rail to be beaten 1 1/4 lengths. Trapped for most the race, he attempted a bold move to come inside the pacesetter at the half-mile pole, but had to steady and drop back a bit. He tried to get going again on the turn, but the victorious Litigate had gotten the jump on him. When the leader finally did come off the rail in the stretch, Groveland gave it another shot and was able to get though and close strongly. The son of Street Sense has not finished out of the money in five career starts and has tons of stamina throughout his pedigree, with a Breeders’ Cup Sprint winner, the filly Desert Stormer, thrown in there. Watch out for this guy when the distances stretch out.
Harty sent out another classically bred 3-year-old for Godolphin, SUERTE, who scored an impressive wire-to-wire maiden victory at Tampa Bay Downs. The son of Frosted had to be gelded and started off his career running for a $50,000 claiming tag. He showed some promise, finishing second to Prairie Hawk in his third start, but couldn’t break his maiden until his fifth start when Harty removed his blinkers. He did show his greenness when he ducked out sharply from a left-handed whip from Tyler Gaffalione, but was fine after Gaffalione put the whip away and just showed it to him the rest of the way as he drew off to a three-length score. It’s a shame they had to geld him as he is inbred to an American (Seattle Slew) and English (Nijinsky) Triple Crown winner and has class and stamina all though his pedigree. He also is inbred to Unbridled.
I didn’t like taking VERIFYING off the Rankings, but he most likely will be back next week in preparation for the Rebel Stakes. Although DISARM has been put on a wait and see status I am still high on him, but with such a traffic jam after the Top 12 I have to remind myself he has had only two sprints and hasn’t run in 6 1/2 months. And at this juncture he doesn’t have much time to gain experience, face winners, and get Derby points. So for now we’ll just keep an eye on him.
Looking at the Thoro-Graph numbers for the Holy Bull Stakes, ROCKET CAN ran his third consecutive “8,” so not only does he have to get faster, he has to start showing some improvement numbers-wise. But he did have to go five-wide into the first turn and was wide throughout, so he surely deserves another chance to move forward
Runner-up SHADOW DRAGON, our spotlight horse of the week who like Rocket Can is trained by Bill Mott, went from a “14” in his first two races to a “10 1/4,” so he definitely needs to get a lot faster as well. But I did like what I saw coming off two New York-bred races and a three-month layoff, having to rally from far back through a very slow three-quarters in 1:13 3/5, circling four-wide on the far turn, and not changing leads until the sixteenth pole. He does have two races with triple-digit late pace figures on Brisnet. His sire was a sprinter whose career was cut short after winning the Grade 1 Carter Handicap in only his third career start, and his dam is by Medaglia d’Oro out of Jostle, who was Rick Porter and John Servis’ first big horse, winning the Coaching Club American Oaks, Alabama, Black-Eyed Susan, Cotillion, and Demoiselle Stakes.
Shadow Dragon has the much-coveted Rasmussen Factor, being inbred to Cap and Bells through her daughter Lady Capulet, the dam of El Prado, sire of Medaglia d’Oro, and also through her son Drone, a massive powerhouse of a horse who had superstar written all over him after winning his first four starts by margins of four to nine lengths. Drone, a Claiborne Farm owned and bred son of Sir Gaylord, came along in the same crop as Arts and Letters and Majestic Prince, and his trainer Lucien Laurin called him the best horse he ever trained. Laurin was so distraught after losing Drone to a calcium deposit in his knee while on the Derby trail he said, “This has to be the most heartbreaking game in the world. What an unlucky sonofagun I am.” Shortly after, Laurin retired only to return to train a half-brother to Sir Gaylord named Secretariat. After that the game wasn’t quite as heartbreaking for Laurin, who no longer could complain about being unlucky. As for Drone, you don’t usually see him this close up in a young horse’s pedigree anymore, but if you’re not familiar with him he is the broodmare sire of Kentucky Derby winners Grindstone and Charismatic, as well as the great Dancing Brave, winner of the English Derby, 2,000 Guineas, King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes, and Eclipse Stakes, and Hall of Famer Princess Rooney, the first Breeders’ Cup Distaff winner. I’m looking to see big improvement from Shadow Dragon. The fact that Bill Mott put him in the Holy Bull when he had Rocket Can says a lot.
Mott sent out another runner this past weekend in ARTHUR’S RIDE, a stunning gray son of Tapit with a big bounding stride. Battling through fast fractions in the one-mile maiden race, he opened up in the stretch and had no problem holding off the Todd Pletcher first timer DREAMLIKE to win by 1 1/2 lengths in a solid 1:36 1/5.
In Week 1 I mentioned a horse who really caught my eye in his career debut was the Pletcher-trained KINGSBARNS, who won despite a horrible trip. Well, he came back Sunday with a perfect trip in a mile and 40-yard allowance race at Tampa Bay and was extremely impressive storming by the leader from the inside near the half-mile pole, opening a clear lead on the turn while still on cruise control and drawing off to a 7 3/4-length victory. He was hit with three right-handed whips in the stretch, but only to keep him from drifting out. He is a classy-looking colt with a beautiful bounding stride and it’s only a question now if he has enough time to get two stakes in and pick up Derby points. He definitely is one to watch.
The comeback performance of the week was turned in by the John Shirrreffs-trainer SKINNER, who made his first start since getting beat 28 lengths in the American Pharoah Stakes and stormed to an impressive 3 1/4-length victory in a one-mile maiden race at Santa Anita Sunday with first time Lasix.
One horse who could very well dominate the remaining Turfway Stakes is Leonatus Stakes winner FUNTASTIC AGAIN, who was always thought of very highly by owner Three Chimneys Farm and trainer Wesley Ward. Three Chimneys stands Funtastic and will often look at his sales horses. They liked what they saw with Funtastic Again, feeling he was an attractive, athletic colt and were able to get him for $60,000 at the Keeneland November mixed sale. They liked him so much they even bought his dam in foal to Not This Time. Funtastic recently breezed five furlongs in 1:02 at Turfway.
Even losing a few Derby hopefuls, Brad Cox still has quite an arsenal. TAPIT’S CONQUEST looks like one of his sleepers who just needs a little more experience to put it all together and he definitely will get in the Risen Star. The ability is there and his numbers are improving, and he showed he’s ready for the next step after working five furlongs in 1:00 2/5 in company with the stakes-winning Victory Formation. Two Cox horses looking for redemption following disappointing efforts in the sloppy Southwest Stakes, JACE’S ROAD and CORONA BOLT, who we had ranked in Week 1, returned to the work tab going a half in :49 1/5 and :48 1/5, respectively.
Speaking of redemption, SUN THUNDER, another colt who impressed us visually, but didn’t show too much in the Southwest Stakes coming off Lasix, finishing a well-beaten fourth, turned in a strong five-furlong work in 1:00 1/5 for the Risen Star Stakes. I haven’t given up on this colt, who I believe is much better than he showed last time. He could be an Interesting longshot.
Another horse who caught my eye early on was the Bob Baffert-trained HARLOCAP, who as mentioned earlier has been turned over to Steve Asmussen and is entered in the Risen Star Stakes where he will come off Lasix after an impressive victory.
On the Risen Star card facing Banishing in the 1 1/16-mile allowance are some names you should be hearing from, including the still green TAPIT SHOES, impressive first out winners FIRST DEFENDER and WILLAKENZIE, and recent allowance winner CAGLIOSTRO.
The hard-knocking DREW’S GOLD had no trouble winning the six-furlong Jimmy Winkfield Stakes at Aqueduct, but trainer James Chapman said he would prefer going for the seven-furlong Bay Shore Stakes next rather than stretch him out in the Gotham. One horse who is headed for the Gotham is the gutsy SLIP MAHONEY, a son of Arrogate who battled Tapit Trice to the wire, losing by a neck, and then fought back to hold off the late charge of the Pletcher-trained CRUPI, winning by a head. His Brisnet figures have improved from an 84 to a 96 to a 98, as has his late pace figures, from an 85 to a 96 to a 99. So he not only can close, he can close off strong middle pace figures. Like many up-and-comers this year he will have to come off Lasix in the Gotham, but he did run big without it against Tapit Trice. With the main body of the Brad Cox army down south he could hold down the fort up in New York. If you’re not familiar with the name, Slip Mahoney was the leader of the Bowery Boys, who were popular on TV in the 1950s.
Last Saturday’s El Camino Real Derby on the synthetic track at Golden Gate was won in workmanlike fashion by CHASE THE CHAOS, who has won two straight and has finished in the money in all six of his starts, including his first two on the grass at Canterbury Downs.
Finally, not only do we have our first filly in the Future Wager, but the undefeated HOOSIER PHILLY, a run-away winner of the Golden Rod and Rags to Riches Stakes, closed as the second choice at 11-1.
Racing historian, author, and award-winning retired journalist for the Daily Racing Form and The Blood-Horse, Steve Haskin was inducted into the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame’s Media Roll of Honor in 2016. Known for his racing knowledge and insightful prose, he has been an exclusive contributor to Secretariat.com since 2020.
32 horses nominated to the FOY, including Forte, Tapit Twice, General Jim, Kingsbarns, Rocket Can, Arthur’s Ride, and Blazing Sevens. I’m really looking forward to it. It should be the best prep so far.
Roberta, I wish the Tampa Bay Derby nominations were available as well so we could determine who is going where. 😉
Kingsbarns is the KD winner
My Current Derby Dozen (as of 2-19), are pretty much the same as last week, the only exception, I dropped Victory Formation and added Angel of Empire
1) Hit Show
2) Forte
3) Arabian Knight
4) Tapit Trice
5) Practical Move
6) Reincarnate
7) Litigate
8) Blazing Sevens
9) Giant Mischief
10) General Jim
11) Lugan Knight
12) Angel of Empire
My favorite 12 are:
1. Forte
2. Tapit Trice
3. Verifying
4. Instant Coffee
5. Practical Move
6. Giant Mischief
7. Hit Show
8. Blazing Sevens
9. Angel of Empire
10. General Jim
11. Kingsbarns
12. Disarm
I am assuming Disarm shows his true mettle in one hour at Oaklawn…
I think Disarm will run well today..
Yes Matthew… the son of Gun Runner looks radiant in the paddock and for what is worth he will very likely be win 10,000 for Steve Asmussen… it would be good omen.
In 12 minutes we will know…!
He is studdish though … not good for his concentration though!!!
Good second for Disarm considering he lost to a very fast horse in 1:37 and he did not break that well…
1:38 for Disarm was what I was expecting after 6 month-layoff.
He will improve next time for sure.
Through roses colored glasses I fear. Just another disappointment to be tallied up. Next!
Nelson, I agree with your assessment of Disarm in his Allow. race today at OP. He did break slow but recovered quickly to secure third along the rail. He rallied in the stretch to get second and he galloped out well. He looks to be a horse that wants to go longer than a mile like he did today. Now that he is healthy and has shaken off the rust off of the long layoff I hope they target a KY Derby points race next. It will be interesting to see what Steve has to say about Disarm. I am still high on him and hope he gets his shot in a stakes race next time out.
I am placing SUN THUNDER in 12th now
Give yourself a baker’s dozen. Lol.
That’s a good group, Mr. Maan. I’m holding off on anointing Forte as the leader of the pack. The record of BC juvy winners in the Kentucky Derby is abysmal. With two exceptions, they either never get there or they underperform. I’m focusing on Tapit Trice as numero uno, followed by four colts I bet in Future Wager 4– Game Change at 165-1, Practical Move at 83-1, Gun Pilot at 66-1, and Giant Mischief at a paltry 43-1. This has been an underwhelming derby trail, but only the shadow knows what’s in store for us.
Your four futures look very good so far. Giant Mischief will be one of the favored horses in the Rebel next Saturday. Verifying and Reincarnate will get a lot of attention there as well.
Game Change is one I am following with interest… wondering what Shug has in mind for him.
Tapit Trice is the most impressive winner so far … I don’t know where Pletcher is going to allocate him but the son of Tapit needs to prove himself in Stakes company.
I am sure there are many worthy challengers who can unseat Forte by Derby day… as you said, meanwhile we let the shadow on every page of the trail tell us what might be coming…
Found this on twitter.. Is this true ???
Jeffrey Byrnes
@jeffbyrnes96
Very notable: Four nominated horses trained by Bob Baffert (Arabian Lion, Carmel Road, Fort Warren, and Hejazi) are listed under different trainers.
Arabian Lion, Carmel Road, Hejazi: Tim Yakteen
Fort Warren: Brittany Russell
The tweet referenced the Gotham Stakes for which nominations closed yesterday – two owned by Amr Zedan and two owned by SF Racing. The top BB Derby contenders will be moved soon, if they haven’t already. I wouldn’t bet on any horse in the Derby that was transferred from the Baffert barn.
I agree with your assessment Simon… the disruption from one system to another will be too much for any ex-Baffert horse.
I agree with you, Nelson. Although I’d love it if Arabian Knight won the Derby. That would frost CD’s you know whats.
“system” LOL!
Fairgrounds is having a promotion….if you bring a flashlight and point it toward the track….you get free admission!…(hehe)..
Ha ha! What were they thinking? Last race scheduled for 6:15.
6:15 central time!
No kidding! I could hardly see the horses. I marveled that John Dooley was able to call the race!
LOL..No wonder I did not enjoy a dull Risen Star … I was trying to change the brightness of my desktop screen but there was no light to be found….!
What a pity the whole power system didn’t go down. What a dreadful race and to think the winner is guaranteed to a spot in the Kentucky Derby. Hopefully, CDI can see the point system needs an overhaul.
Steve, is this the worst beginning of the Kentucky Derby trail ever?
The Japanese and Aidan O’Brien must be rubbing their hands…ha ha!
But seriously, I expect that the next showings of top horses like Forte, Tapit Trice, Blazing Sevens, Verifying, Practical Move, Kingsbarns, Giant Mischief and General Jim will lead to a better grading of this 2023 class.
Actually Nelson, I hope you’re right. Especially Aidan O’Brien he’d at least have a few to consider, seriously. I’m just speculating if the ‘not running the better prospects in enough races earlier’ is catching up with the trainers. The hot house flowers wilted away under a hot pace in the Risen Star Stakes, too fragile?
I wish Signator hadn’t got injured. Oh well, on to the Rebel Stakes, will some Bafferts turn up in disguise?
Davids, I know that the point system could use some adjustments. But the best horses always get in the derby, so I wouldn’t want an overhaul.
Roberta, I feel the structure takes excitement out of the Derby Trial these 50 point races are over generous- instant spot in the Derby from a race in February is silly. Think again, CDI.
Guessing Steve’s moves in the ranking….
Victory Formation and Banishing (who were anyway at the bottom of the list) will be out of the ranking and will perhaps be replaced by Angel of Empire. Despite not being the most impressive winner this weekend he is the Derby and the ranking should ultimately comprise the potential Derby field.
Disarm is resuming today at Oaklawn and a convincing win could put him in the top 12.
Instant Coffee worked yesterday 4 furlongs in 49.80 at Fair Grounds, so I assume Steve will be assessing the quality of that workout to mull on reinstatig the son of Bolt D’Oro in the ranking.
The one I like most from Cox battalion is Verifying who looked even better working 5 furlongs in 59.80 seconds with Giant Mischief at Fair Grounds.
Talking about notable workouts, Forte logged a super impressive 1.01.41 for the 5 furlongs at Palm Beach Downs. The Fountain of Youth looks to become a triumphal return for him.
Practical Move and Blazing Sevens too remain solid in the ranking after working 5 furlongs in 59.20 and 1.02.2 respectively.
Denington and Airtime deserve some comments in the KOTD section.
But I think, KINGSBARNS is likely to enter the top dozen as he is much better than Litigate in my view…
In conclusion, my guess is that the two spots available will be filled by Angel of Empire, Disarm or Kingsbarns …
I’m hoping that Disarm impresses today also. I love to see the Gun Runners do well. But so many maiden winners disappoint against fields of other winners. Disarm has to deal with an extra furlong and an extra turn. Two Eagles River is the most interesting foe. His trainer is hot hot hot. I’m referring to his win percentage at the meet of course. Ha ha!
Yes Roberta Two Eagles River is the only real gauge to weigh up Disarm’s current form…. if the son of Gun Runner and grandson of the great Tapit wins in 1:38 or faster we will be a sure addition to the ranking.
BTW you were right about the Risen Star’s contentious early pace … I did not expect Victory Formation being that aggressive out of the gate, and even the explosion of Shaq Diesel against Harlocap and Determinedly .
That 1:12.21 for the 6 furlongs overtaxed all the speed horses.
Anyway, I don’t know if it was the lack of light but there is nothing stirring about that 50-point prep…
Well, I did predict the contentious early pace. But the first two finishers were among my first throwouts. You’re right about the race. I can’t imagine the Derby winner will come from it.
About Two Eagles River, I believe he was 2-1 as the horses were loaded into the gate. His final odds were 6-5, almost the favorite. There was some serious money put through the windows on TER.
Well done, Roberta. Did you win a free meal?
Ha ha! That’s only when the girls go out to the track.
Notable workouts yesterday (Saturday)…..
Forte 101.41 for 5 (1/10)
Practical Move 59.2 for 5 (2/44)
Thx for posting! Blazing Sevens also worked five furlongs in 1:02.2 at Payson Park (1/6).
Don’t think we saw Derby winner in Risen Star! 🙂
A faster workout time doesn’t mean a better workout; different trainers, different times.
From the thundering silence about the results of the Risen Star, I gather no one was very impressed. I’m disappointed that Victory Formation ran so poorly. Beyer figs (87 for the winner and Sun Thunder) were better than those for the Sam F. Davis. Angel of Empire seems like a nice horse, but he could be a one-hit wonder, like so many 3YOs turn out to be. I sure hope Disarm fires big today.
Ms Blacktype, I was beginning to think this morning that I had been booted off the forum because of 3 of my comments in the past few days. Was very much relieved to see your post!
Yes, the silence both last evening and again this morning has been deafening. Not much being said on other forums either.
Another shakeup in the points leaderboard in addition to Angel of Empire; Sun Thunder and Two Phils moved up into the top ten.
Tapits Conquest, who I was leaning towards, finished 4th.
Brad Cox possibly has a new shooter in Bishops Bay. Per Steve Byk on Twitter, Bishops Bay received a 97 for his effort at 6f and gave Brad Cox his 2000th win.
Big disappointment for me was Hoosiers Philly in the RA Stakes. She came into race 3 for 3 and received a 90 in her last
race. The winner of the RA Stakes, Pretty Mischevious received an 83. Hoosiers Philly defeated Pretty Mischievous in their last meeting (3rd). Hoosiers Philly did stumble pretty badly out of the gate. She just did not seem to have it together after that. Not sure of course, but this might spell the end for Kentucky Derby dreams for her. Hope she is OK, have not heard. She did go over on the one fetlock (right fore as I recall) twice as she stumbled.
Once again, it will be interesting to see what Steve has to day about the Risen Star results.
Where did Crupi finish?
He finished 7th, Pony Boy.
Piroli won today by 9 1/2 lengths, in 1:36 3/5….not a 3yo but I yhought it was worth mentioning—Piroli is on of three horses sired by Battle of Midway….
I ex/tri boxed Single Ruler, Harlocap, Sun Thunder & played Sun Thunder wps in a terrific betting race!
Good return on your place and show bets. Nice play!
Really liking Tapits Conquest and Harlocap in the RS. I will do a $10 EX Box with those 2. They are the only 2 I will be using in my Late P5 All stakes at the FG today. 1,7,8/2,3,6,7,8/2,4,8/2,4/5,8. Hopefully Chop Chop can upset Hoosier Philly to spice up the P5.
A case could be made for at least seven horses that look very formitable in the Risen Star Stakes. Those seven are; Harlocap, Crupi, Victory Formation, Tapit’s Conquest, Determinedly, Two Phil’s and Silver Heist.
Crupi has yet to break his maiden, but Todd Pletcher thinks enough of him to enter him in a G2 Stakes race. At 15-1, Crupi offers excellent betting value, IMO. Harlocap, recently switched to the Asmussen barn, has a lot to like at 8-1 and will be
my pick in the Risen Star. Victory Formation didn’t draw well, but with his early speed, he should be out there with the early pace setters coming out of the first turn. Tapit’s Conquest certainly deserves considertion, at least in the exotic wagers.
That said, I’ll key Harlocap on top, with Determinedly, Tapit’s Conquest, Crupi and Victory Formation underneath in a $4.00 superfecta p/w wager. That is, 5/ 4,8,12,13/ 4,8,12,13/ 4,8,12,13.
BTW, keep an eye on the 8th race, (at the FG) today. Banashing appears to be the horse to beat, but First Defender could be a very special Three Chimneys homebred colt moving forward for trainer Steve Asmussen. He has a ton of class and stamina influence on both sides of his very impressive pedigree. His inbreeding to Secretariat on the dam side speaks volumes. With John Velazquez in the saddle, First Defender looks to be Banashing’s main rival in that 8.5 furlong AOC race.
Safe trips to all.
Very logic superfecta Bill.
I am also rooting for Harlocap … he just needs a clean break from pp5…imagine if Asmussen gets his win 10,000 with him and John V.
Asmussen is closer now 9998 after winning the first at Sam Houston.
Regarding Banishing it seems very tough to defeat him today… Godolphin is in a hot streak. Yesterday the powerhouse won 4 yesterday at Meydan and started the day in USA with a Stakes win with the two fillies Frost Point taking the Heavenly Prize at Aqueduct and Comparative in Fair Ground.
Good luck Bill !
*Comparative won a Special Maiden Weight by 6 lengths at FG…Godolphin’s First Mission and St. John’s look good in their debut in FG 5th in 15 minutes … but there are other highly regarded debutants like the half to champion Jackie’s Warrior named Ocean City (JV piloting for Asmussen) and a son of Uncle Mo named Bishops Bay for Brad Cox.
Thanks Nelson
If you get a chance, take a close look at First Defender’s pedigree, I think you’ll be impressed.
There are those that dismiss the large heart gene, conversely, there are those that give the large heart gene concept some degree of credence, myself included. First Defender “could” be a carrier of the large heart gene, IMO.
He should be very competitive as the distance increases.
Good luck to you as well, Nelson.
Update: Steve Asmussen needs only one win to get the 10,000 milestone.
He also won the first at Oaklawn with Canada’s Customs…
Denington’s win in the FG 8 puts good validating light on Two Phill’s, Victory Formation and Angel of Empire for the Risen Star…!
Banishing is not only out of the Ranking but also from the trail … something amiss with him.
Hey Nelson
First Defender didn’t live up to my expectations, nor did Banishing. I did notice that First Defender’s last work at 4 furlongs was a relatively slow 51 2/5. A case could be made that Asmussen didn’t have First Defender fully cranked for this race.
That said, I will not give up on First Defender. I’ll look for him to make amends in his next start.
Hit Show remains my top Derby contender, at this point.
Late this afternoon the Judge in the Baffert case against CDI ruled the leave the suspension in place.
Next step for the Baffert team would be to appeal the decision to a 6 judge appeals court. No word as of yet from the Baffert team as to how they will proceed.
I have tried very hard to stay out of this but will be happy when it is over.
Between this situation, Covid, the disqualification of Maximum Security and the death of Medina Spirit, there have been long shadows hovering over the sport for a long time. Then there is the matter of the prize money still being held by the UAE.
To add to the drama, the connections for Rich Strike are going to appeal the decision by HISA over “shoegate”.
I am ready for normal and no more crazy.
Bill Dawson, I apologize for not giving you the latest information.
I had not checked my Twitter account late this afternoon before I responded to your question below.
No need to apologize Lynda, you just commented on the information you had available, at the time of your posting.
It appears Bob Baffert up against it, and will not be entering his horses in the Derby.
BTW, I consider you as one of the more knowledgeable contributors on this site, with an abundance of class that shines through in your comments.
Best of luck moving forward.
Thank you Bill. Very nice of you to day that.
I am in agreement with you that Mr Baffert is up against it and will be transferring his horses out.
No legal experience but it would seem to me that getting an appeal before the 28th would be almost impossible.
“…prize money still being held by the UAE.”
What race was that? If its concerns Maximum Security, you have the wrong country!
The Risen Start features 14 horses looking for the 50-point express pass to the Derby. Providing there won’t be any scratch, it would be the third time that this Derby prep shows a full field this Century.
For the last four years, the Risen Star has been relevant to the Triple Crown thanks to top trainers Asmussen, Cox and Casse. The first two are numerically in advantage to win this Risen Star again as their horses fill almost half of the field.
Keith Desormeaux has won the Risen Star just once but was a memorable one for him. In 2013 Ive Struck a Nerve a 135 to 1 upset closed strongly to edge Baffert’s Code West by a nose… The astute Trainer is attempting to replicate that surprise with Single Ruler who seems to be improving but it is still a tall order for the son of Empire Maker. Anyway, if you want your horse to stun the world you better have Jose Riquelme as your jockey.
The maiden Crupi is the only one with experience at the 9 furlongs and Pletcher is a master in getting Derby points, but I believe this Risen Star is not favorable to deep closers. Crupi may run out of real state as the pace seems to be on the moderate side.
I am leaning toward a horse that has three Hall of Fame pros in his corner. Harlocap is a solid speedster bound to dictate the pace the way John Velazquez did in his (super easy) win at Santa Anita.
The son of Justify got an ideal post position (pp 6) with the other speed horse (Determinedly) to his inside and the favorite Victory Formation starting from the unfavorable pp 13. Anyhow, Victory Formation commands a lot of respect for being undefeated in 3 starts and the winner of the Smarty Jones in his first 2-turn attempt.
I am aware the top horses in the Risen Star field had this Stakes as their prime goal and that Harlocap seems to be just “crashing” there but speed needs no plans… you simply go fast and far as you can.
My RS Trifecta so far looks like this:
Harlocap/Victory Formation
Victory Formation, Two Phil’s, Tapit’s Conquest
Two Phil’s, Tapit’s Conquest, Curly Jack, Crupi, Silver Heist
Happy and safe racing… and Good luck to everyone.
Kent won the first two at Santa Anita today. Is one of three riders with a 50% ITM at the meet..
And his ROI is positive which is also outstanding. Kent Desormeaux is holding his own in a good jockey colony. His story is one of admirable redemption… A lucid Kent is making Santa Anita more enjoyable while competing with other two Hall of Fame Jockeys (Smith and Velazquez) and the one and only Frankie Dettori…
I just hope he finds a breakthrough horse for him to flaunt his high-class skills …
Hello, Nelson. Harlocap is interesting. He probably would have broken his maiden in his second career race but for the trouble. So he’s gotten a little behind in the schedule I guess. It’s a good sign that the owners switched him early to Steve Asmussen. But it’s kind of strange to see the switch of a horse by Justify out of a Bodemeister mare to another trainer.
I think there will be a pretty contentious early duel. It should set it up for Two Phil’s (my top pick), Tapit’s Conquest, and Curly Jack.
Good luck with your trifecta wager. I don’t know a lot about exotic wagering, but I think I figured out what you’re doing. Ha ha!
Thanks for your reply Roberta.
You brought a good point about Harlocap being unlucky in his second start. In fact, he was not breaking alertly the first two starts but in his last he finally put it together. I hope he can break well today.
I am not sure how long Determinedly may last but I expect a kind of “armistice” between Victory Formation and Harlocap so that they don’t engage in a prohibitive early fight.
Your picks are very solid ones… Silver Heist looked backwards and green in his two turn debut but he got a huge upside as he becomes more professional…
There are other good horses there and we should check if the track bias could be a factor for a possible upset.
Definitely a very entertaining race.
RE: Fairgrounds, Saturday, 2-18, 8th race, 1 1/16 80K, AOC
First Defender, by Quality Road, out of Love and Pride, by A.P. Indy, looked super impressive breaking his maiden race at first asking. Setting fast fractions, early on, he finished the 6 furlong distance in 1:10 4/5, drawing off by 5 1/4 lengths.
He appears to have more speed than Banashing, the only question, can he carry his speed over a distance of ground.
Both of these colts share the same broodmare sire, (A.P. Indy), but what impressed me about First Defender, his dam, Love and Pride was a G1 winning router. Suffice to say, there’s plenty of stamina influence top and bottom, and with his speed, I see no problem that First Defender is well suited for 8.5 furlongs. Obviously, Banashing is the horse to beat, but First Defender will be my pick in referenced race.
Safe trips to all.
For all you pedigree geeks out there, First Defender shows inbreeding to Secretariat on the dam side. It’s little wonder that First Defender’s dam, Love and Pride was a G1 winning router. If he wins that 8.5 furlong AOC race on Saturday, don’t be surprised if Asmussen just trains him up for the Louisiana Derby, on March 25. 🙂
Breaking news…Baffert case dismissed, and he will not be trainer of note in Derby this year. Let’s see where his stock goes now! Fun!
An interesting development to say the least.
Thanks for the heads up The Local Seth.
What I read was the request for the Judge reviewing his appeal to recuse herself for conflict of interest was dismissed. Mr Baffert and his legal team are still awaiting the court decision.
This makes me wonder on what grounds did Baffert’s legal team as the Judge to recuse herself from the case.
This case is far from over.
Thanks for the heads up Lynda.
Edit to say, “ask the Judge”.
The case is over. Most of the lawsuit has been dismissed. Baffert will not be in the Derby this year.
Bill, what I read was that Baffert’s legal team filed the motion because they felt that the Judge’s husband, who has worked as a lobbyist for the Jockey Club, created a conflict of interest and that Judge should recuse herself.
That is the motion that was dismissed today.
As far as I know the Judge has not made a decision on the latest suit brought by Baffert and his legal team against CDI.
Why don’t you do some research? Go to DRF maybe. Or Bloodhorse: “Trainer Bob Baffert was dealt another litigation setback Feb. 17 when a federal court judge in Louisville, Ky., turned down a request for a preliminary injunction the trainer filed against Churchill Downs Inc., its CEO, and board chairman.”
The decision was handed down late this afternoon after the motion for the judge to recuse herself was dismissed.
I have a life outside horse racing and not checked my Twitter feed since the motion was dismissed.
I find your comment to be rather snarky….seems to be more and more common place these days.
The Local Seth told you twice that Baffert’s motion was denied. If you didn’t believe him, you could have checked it on your own. I apologize for the snark.
I am going to make my case for the inclusion of Authentic on the list of truly great horses that won the Derby and as a response to Davids’ comments.
Authentic is in very elite company in that he is one of 6 horses in 28 years to win both the Kentucky Derby and the Breeders Cup Classic and even more noteworthy, he is one of only 4 horses to win both the Derby and the Breeders Cup Classic as 3 year old.
Authentic is first horse to wire the Kentucky Derby since War Emblem.
Authentic’s final time in the Kentucky Derby was the fastest since Monarchos.
Authentic broke American Pharoah’s record time in the Breeders Cup Classic with a time of 1:59.60.
Easy lead in Derby and BBC…….overrated
The 2020 Derby cannot be compared to any traditional May derbies. It was a difficult year, and horse-racing suffered. Colts are much more developed in September than they were in May. Plus the pandemic threw everything out of whack–training, race schedules. It’s just not the same. Authentic was very good. He was the best horse that year. But nobody that I know in the horse-racing world believes that Authentic would have won the Derby in May. We will, unfortunately, never know.
No matter what happens in court…Churchill won, and Bob lost….for prescribed overages Bob is now widely known as a horse doper, and nothing can change that—Bob lost more than he could ever regain—Churchill WON, ENOUGH, already, let him train and let him enter!
Baffert has long been an enigma to me. I know that during his early run of derby successes, when i was younger and probably a little self righteous, i enjoyed casting him as the villian. Like his predecessor Wayne Lukas, Baffert was easy to see as the perennial Goliath, beating up on a succession of meek Davids. I still question what may happen to his young colts during that patented fall break, but that is conjecture. I don’t know that he is taking any edges not taken by the competition. What i have heard is that he has done many good deeds for people in racing who are experiencing difficulties. Beyond that, i’ve realized in recent years that i just like the guy. Like Lukas, he has aged well and racing would be poorer in his absence. Churchill just seems petty and vindictive.
Oh my! I think you misread the story of David and Goliath. Ha ha!
I agree with you Todd, although this thing with Churchill Downs may have turned him bitter. I also wonder what “last shoe” is going to drop on him after this years’ Derby.
Lukas pushes hard on horses. As for BB, no one cares . Overkill!
….’widely known as a horse doper’….where do you want to go with this? Are we to include Steve Asmussen whose drug violations include lidocaine metobolite in 2008 or Mepivicaine in 2006 or Acepromazine in 2019 jsut to name a few. Or we to include Chad Brown, an admittedj physical harassing of a female and a convicted wage thief?
I only need to look at Facebook postings, from people who know next to nothing…he is referred to as a horse doper—CDI muddled this up! Bob is responsible for the therapeutic overages, CDI for turning it onto horse doping….
Large number of horses he ruined. Glad Zen was never in his barn, as well as Asmussens,Lukas, several.
Yes Bob and Lukas. …they ask a lot—- no argument….if I had a horse I’d go with Shirreffs…..Bob asks a lot, Bob gets a lot—and many cannot make the grade—-your call…Bob is the best there ever was, regardless, in the Triple Crown..
We got to know a special kind of greatness—because they made Rachel Alexandra prove it vs older males 9 fur dirt….and it probably ruined her….She is legend. …
RA = MISMANGED!!!
You suffer from BDS!
lol Sure!
A prominent NY trainer got to run, claim, horses while having violated protocols….Bob was clean in NY but we didn’t see Taiba in the Travers! We didn’t see any horses last year ! In NY….Bob has been working under different rules, ENOUGH!..
Baffert, a California trainer, has won the following Grade 1 stake races in New York…the Acorn (5 times), the Alabama, the Ballerina, the Carter Handicap, the Champagne Stakes, the Cigar Mile Handicap (3 times), the Coaching Club American Oaks, the Forego Stakes (2 times), the Frizette Stakes (2 times), the Gazelle Handicap, the Jockey Club Gold Cup (2 times), the King’s Bishop Stakes (2 times), the Metropolitan Handicap, the Ogden Phipps, the Personal Ensign Stakes, the Prioress Stakes, the Ruffian Stakes, the Test Stakes (3 times), the Travers Stakes (3 times), the Whitney Stakes (2 times), the Wood Memorial and finally the Woodward Stakes.
I count 36 grade 1 wins withouut any medication violations.
A California trainer winning 36 Gtade 1 races in NY might be a bit much for NYRA to stomach.
How many turf stakes has he won? Pletcher is 15 years younger than your idol and has won most of those stakes multiple times too.
I forgot. Add 3 Belmont Stakes to the Baffert list.
When you went through your list you must have noticed many other trainers have also won these stakes multiple times, in recent years and also further back in time.
First, Medina Spirit was not DQed for an overage. Kentucky racing regulations allow no detectable betamethasone in a horse’s system on race day.
Second, the suspension is understandable considering that Baffert tarnished the event that defines Churchill Downs. Churchill Downs IS the Kentucky Derby. The Kentucky Derby IS Churchill Downs. The Kentucky Derby is one of the most famous and revered sporting events in the world. How many times has a Derby runner tested positive for a banned substance? Just twice! Dancer’s Image in 1968 and Medina Spirit in 2021.
Then there’s the controversy surrounding the positive test result of Baffert’s Justify in California just weeks before his win in the Kentucky Derby and subsequent Triple Crown. All that has occurred in penalizing the trainer is understandable and appropriate.
At this point, I like Tapit Trice for the derby. I haven’t read anything about his next race, but I’m sure it won’t be the FOY…unless Forte doesn’t run. For the Risen Star 1) Two Phil’s, 2) Tapit’s Conquest, 3) Curly Jack. I like Two Phil’s as the winner because he ran a good second to Instant Coffee (who had won the KJC) after nearly 3 months off.
Roberta, we are in agreement – Tapit Trice for the Kentucky Derby – at this stage anyway. Ha ha Pletcher will probably do a “Dunkirk” and send Tapit Trice straight to Florida Derby. The Tampa Bay Derby is another option so be prepared for another trip. No doubt you’ll be going anyway.
For the Risen Star I like: Tapit’s Conquest, Silver Heist, and Victory Formation but post positions for the latter two are not favorable so they could out of the race on the first turn. That’s racing. Ha ha
We’re having a heat wave here in Melbourne 102 max with a minimum of 75 plus humidity for the past couple of days. Relief tomorrow though. Good luck.
Ooh! 102 AND humidity? Even south Florida doesn’t see that. Stay inside …please! The TB Derby would be a great spot for Tapit Trice. He would surely be the favorite. I’d love to be able to see Forte in the FOY and then Tapit Trice in the TB Derby a week later.
It would be an exciting week, especially if they both won. However, as much as I like the Tampa Bay Derby a wide post is almost impossible to overcome so you need an inside post. Moreover, the Fountain of Youth is usually highly competitive so Forte had better be ready to run from the get go.
Makes for exciting races though. Ha ha
Yes indeed, very exciting! But I don’t think you need to worry too much about the post positions in the TB Derby. In three of the last four runnings, post 10 has won twice and post 11 has won once. Now it could hurt a horse like Victory Formation because he may NEED to get to the lead. I agree, Forte will need to be at his best.
confused. you have 7—Giant Mischief in the risen star. What race did you mean next for him? also you list 9—Banishing as Risen star what race did you mean for him next? thanks
That’s where I was told he was heading, and this was written before I saw the entries. I was going to change it on the website after I saw the entries but forgot. He also worked 5f in :59 4/5 last Saturday, so I have no idea why he wasnt entered. Same with Instant Coffee. I can only conclude he will go in the Rebel, I cant keep up with all his horses and he never responded to my last text, so I’m just going along like everyone else.
Just read somewhere that Baffert’s National Treasure was just nominated for the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn a week from Saturday….had a work on Sunday going 1.11.60 (1/5)….
Boring.
Equibase have all the 63 nominations for the Rebel Stakes. Nominations closed on February 10, 2023.
If a former Baffert trained colt wins the Kentucky Derby but was sent to an East trainer just prior to the running of the Derby is the colt a California or an Eastcoast horse?
Steve please delete this comment. I hit submit in error and have since decided to not complete the post.
Jackstown, by Speightstown, out of No Name Needed, by Medaglia D’Oro, has not been seen since winning his 5 1/2 furlong maiden race, in a very fast 1:03.47, back in July. Baffert has him back on the work tab, the latest being a 4 furlong bullet, in 46.40 (1/50), at SA, on Feb. 12th. Obviously, this colt is way behind, versus the top prospects on the Derby trail, but it will be interesting to see where Baffert points him for his next start. He just might stretch him out in a one mile, AOC race, in the near future, and go from there. Jackstown is certainly a colt to keep an eye on moving forward, IMO.
Bill, no chance for a reversal. None!
The one thing I’ve noticed about your posts, they’re ususally on the negative side. Just for a change, how about posting a comment on the positive side. A positive comment on a horse, a trainer, a race outcome or anything relating to horse racing would be welcome.
Thanks Mike
Called an opinion Bill. Scroll down.
You’re right Mike, everyone is entitled to their opinion, be it good, bad or indifferent.
Have a nice day Mike.
Afternoon Delights was the west coast Devils Bag—- they both were fast, exciting—and early Spring people were talking about greatness ..
How often is it that the uncanny occurs. Burt Bacharach passes then one of his best horses follows.
Hannity Caulder (Raquel Welch) passed..
HANNIE Caulder! My favorite Raquel movie..
As a kid “Fantastic Voyage” was the favorite but later “Myra Breckinridge”. It was so insanely funny you couldn’t quite believe the story line.
Ms. Welch’s career took off when she won the Del Mar Fairest of the Fair contest in 1958. She appeared as the Weather Girl at the local CBS station (ch. 8) here in San Diego. She was a real beauty, with that charming smile to melt men’s hearts.
It is uncanny, but it does happen. John W. Galbreath, one of the all-time great horse owners, died on July 20, 1988, and two of his best stallions died within a few weeks, Roberto on August 2 and Graustark on August 21. I always found that incredible.
That’s exactly right, Jiffy. I remember that sequence as well. Only last year, The late Queen’s favourite horse Royal Applause died at the age of 29 at Sandringham on Christmas Eve, 2023.
I saw that John Vietch Alydar’s trainer has passed. Will always remember 1978’s triple crown .
So sorry to hear that, Kenny! Vietch came from a multi-generational training family — and I recall thinking of him as YOUNG about the time he left training to become a commentator. What does that make me??!
Will the 31 length hooded sweatshirt – zip up – ever come in any colors?
Pastel blue or red would surely be a top seller.
Try information @Secretariat.com
Pastel blue for me.
“By the way, how many truly great horses have won the Derby in this century or even back through the ‘90s?” – Steve Haskin
Very interesting question Steve, I’d say Unbridled and American Pharoah. Is that too tough? I’d be very interested on who you would consider to be ‘truly great horses’ who won the Kentucky Derby during that period.
I guess it depends how you define “truly great.” I would include Justify. I know he only ran six races but he did everything that was asked of him, he beat everything he ran against, and he competed in our top races. I’d call him great. California Chrome may not be quite “truly great,” but I’d give him an honorable mention. We’ll never know about Barbaro, but I think he had the potential, although Bernardini might have got in the way. So I think the two Triple Crown winners were truly great and Unbridled was, too. But the term itself is tough, and it doesn’t leave room for too many.
The two defeats California Chrome suffered at the hands of Arrogate as well as loses to Shared Belief, Tonalist, and Bayern knocks the ‘truly great’ for me. Justify’s win in the Belmont Stakes was fraught with so many ‘concerns’ that I’m sceptical about his ‘truly great’ status. I thought Repole had a fair argument but the win remained. I know Baffert has inferred that Justify was superior but he doesn’t have the record of American Pharoah.
Jiffy I am in agreement with you as to what the definition of truly great is. It is as Steve as commented several times, highly subjective.
However if we are going to try and list the truly great Kentucky Derby winners, American Pharoah followed by Justify would top the list.
There are several other Derby winners from 1990 through 2022 that, in my opinion, belong on the list:
Authentic, California Chrome, Maximum Security and Silver Charm.
California Chrome and Silver Charm both won two legs of the Triple Crown and went on to have successful racing careers after
the TC season. Authentic and Maximum Security (eventhough he was dropped to last place) both had a successful career after the Derby.
Saw Chrome in showing.
American Pharoah. And I’d put California Chrome close as a two-time classic winner and a two-time Horse of the Year, as well as a grade 1 winner on dirt and grass. Justify did a great thing, but like Chrome he came along in a weak crop. Arrogate may have been the most extraordinary talent of them in that era before he went bad after Dubai.
Thanks Steve. With Unbridled his running down of Housebuster was so extraordinary and his obvious influence in the breeding shed tilt me to think of him as truly great but I realise you were referring to racing performances only.
I believe Pharoah made SIX cross country trips, in 2015….Bob thought the public galloping session on the eve of the Travers cost him the race, I thought he was great..
Considered a “west coast horse”, American Pharoah ran every one of his 2015 races in the east.
I wish they had skipped the Haskell to cut one of those cross country trips, then American Pharoah would have won the Travers Stakes no matter what happened with Frosted in the Travers nor the final workout prior to the Travers.
6 races and was done, unlike Chrome who raced in over 30 races.
I believe Pharoah ran in 8 races as a 3yo, and Chrime ran in less than 30 races, I get ya— they don’t run them enough, had Chrome been better bred they likely would have retired him earlier, after all Mike—they went for the $$$, selling to Japan….
I thought Unbridled’s Derby was GREAT….but I would not call Unbridled great…Like Best Pal—he could run some great races, which would compete with great ones, but not always, you could throw Skip Away into that mix, COULD run great….or not..
Fair argument, Matthew. Unbridled’s sometimes forgotten influence in the breeding shed, which was equal to A. P. Indy before his passing, makes me think of him as truly great the racing talent was there but as you say Unbridled could be inconsistent.
I was waiting for you to tackle Steve’s alluring question … ha ha!
The consensus among us here is that a true great should not only be a first-rate 2-year-old but also a chief 3-year-old who was able to be equally brilliant at older ages. The standard is the one established by the Triple Crown champions of the 70’s and before.
As we have iterated in our chats here, many Derby winners did not have the opportunity to extend their careers beyond their 3-year-old. Since 1990, 14 Derby champions were able to run in their 4 and/or 5-year-old ages. From that group, I would cast my vote in favor of Silver Charm and California Chrome.
1990 Derby winner, Unbridled, can be labeled as an excellent 3-year-old (with the Derby and BCC honors) but did not reach the same level in his (seven starts) as a 4-year-old; nonetheless the son of Fappiano is by far the greatest Sire among the last 33 Derby Champions.
American Pharoah was a great 3-year-old (TC and BC champion). He has a place secured in the Hall of Fame …
That is true Nelson because, over the span Steve was referring, only Unbridled and American Pharoah have won the Kentucky Derby and Breeders’ Cup Classic as 3 years olds. I discount Authentic because the Kentucky Derby is in May not September. Subsequently, for me, Unbridled and American Pharoah stand taller than most.
Authentic won the Derby and the BCC.
Lynda, as mentioned above your post: “I discount Authentic because the Kentucky Derby is in May not September.” Have you forgotten this?
No Davids, I did not forget what you posted about Authentic. I just happen to disagree with you.
Oh, ok, I’ll differentiate American Pharoah and Unbridled by defining them as of more importance to Authentic because they were the only 3 year olds to win the Kentucky Derby in the traditional month of May as well as the Breeders’ Cup Classic later on. Moreover, neither American Pharoah nor Unbridled ever lost to a filly.
Authentic won the Kentucky Derby in September, not in the traditional first Saturday in May, but then was defeated in the Preakness Stakes by the filly Swiss Skydiver in October, again not the traditional month for the Preakness Stakes. Nonetheless, Authentic managed to regroup to win the Breeders’ Cup Classic later on.
PS: Man City walloped Arsenal, 3 – 1, we’re on top again but Arsenal have a game in hand. When Haaland plays, City are invincible, 26th goal of the year for Haaland equaling the club record. A good omen for the Risen Star Stakes.
I would chime in and say a few became great.
Obviously: Secretariat, Seattle Slew, Spectacular Bid, Majestic Prince, Affirmed, Northern Dancer, Swaps, Citation & a few others.
California Chrome and Cigar for me. I love American Pharoah, But one race and win against older horses doesn’t do it for me.
Saw Cigar,Chrome in person.
It’s good to see General Jim making the top 10. We all must agree that the son of Into Mischief is much more than the typical sprinter we are accustomed to see winning the Swale Stakes.
As Steve said, General Jim seems to be a Derby hopeful who will be benefiting from the “staircase approach” of infusing speed into stamina by running sprint races.
Steve’s reminders about the distinctive 7-furlong sharpener made me recall Nyquist 3-year-old debut winning the 2016 San Vicente over Exaggerator in a spectacular 1:20 3/5. That February 15th Stakes turned out to be a key prep for the Derby as Nyquist’s next race was an easy win the Florida Derby and Exaggerator went on to win the Santa Anita Derby in even easier fashion. Their 3-year-old debut at 7-furlongs compounded by their strong 2-year-old foundation was, to many of us, instrumental to their first and second places in the Derby… at any rate, it was a game plan that worked well. O’Neill and Desormeaux earned the reputation of being willing to forego some points to better prepare their horses.
Awarding points to the San Vicente and Swale Stakes has been often proposed by Steve and echoed by many of his followers. It would be a good incentive for true Derby contenders to get the proverbial sharpener. Some argue the proposed amendment would make some pure sprinters meddle in the Derby. I doubt that pure sprinters would win 100-point races.
General Jim is not only different from the Trinniberg’s of the past Derby trails, but his trainer is also unique. McGaughey three previous Swale winners were endowed with stamina. Easy Goer’s 3-year-old debut was a comfortable win in the Swale which was a springboard to his historical Gotham … you may very well know it already, but it gives me joy to say it… Easy Goer won by 13 lengths in an insuperable time of 1:32 2/5 for a mile. BTW Easy Goer started his 4-year-old campaign easily winning a listed race at 7 furlongs … And surely, the Swale wins did not spoil the ability of Roar and Seeking the Gold to shine at longer distances.
Watching General Jim winning at Keeneland made me imagine him as a kind of Animal Kingdom brand.
McGaughey may have lost his best Derby horse in Signator but General Jim seems to be a respectable surrogate … the Derby affairs look good for another son of Into Mischief…!
Good post Nelson, and you a so right about Nyquist and Exxagerator, who both won classics in addition to thir 1,2 finish in the Derby. Churcill will never open their eyes on this issue.
The Strub Series began with The Malibu, and a look-see at past winners—back when it was a Series…..a pretty good list….
I was sorry to read the obituaries of John Veitch and Diana Firestone, two very accomplished individuals who were certainly a credit to racing. My sympathy to both of their families.
Yes Jiffy, the passing of John Veitch and Diana Firestone was a real shock, both were large figures in the racing world. It seems like only yesterday when Alydar and Genuine Risk were major stars.
They dominated the era between the mid ’70s and mid ’80s along with the Firestones’ trainer Leroy Jolley. They were pretty much pre-Lukas.
Good points, Steve. You feel history is fading away in front of your eyes.
Thanking you in advance for covering the story about Tapit Trice’s dam’s sire: Dunkirk.
As Dunkirk has been standing in Japan, I wonder if he was bred here prior to his going to Japan. From what I have read, he has sired winners in Japan.
Poor Dunkirk, it is difficult for any thoroughbred to meet the expectations of a sale price of 3.7 million dollars.
Dunkirk was purchased by the Japan Race Horse Agency to stand at East Stud on the island of Hokkaido in 2015.
Dunkirk was the leading freshman sire by earnings in 2013. Dunkirk sired the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes winner Havana among others.
Davids, thanks for the additional information about Dunkirk.
I saw Quality Road win the Florida Derby when he overtook Dunkirk. I think he was a defeated horse after that race; I believe the loss effected him psychologically. The Florida Derby was the first race in which Quality Road in which he broke the track record.
Terri, I think that’s a fair estimation. I argree Dunkirk never seemed to rebuild his confidence/arrogance after losing the Florida Derby to Quality Road. Moreover, I thought Dunkirk was rushed too fast, too soon and may have been a much better horse given more time to develop. You do see this time and time again.
Watch what a gutsy race he ran in the Belmont Stakes
Steve Haskin, it would be great to have Dunkirk’s grandson win some of the Triple Crown races. In a way, it reminds me of Holy Bull’s descendants wins in the Classics. Giacomo won the Kentucky Derby for his sire, Holy Bull. And Mucho Macho Man won the Breeders Cup Classic for the Bull who was never entered in the race.
I saw a great photo of Giacomo laughing along with his owners after he won the Derby; he is saying I won it for pops.
Yes Steve, Dunkirk was extremely courageous in the Belmont Stakes but like his sire, Unbridled’s Song, we never saw the best of these horses they could have been anything.
Terri, Dunkirk was one of my two favorites to win the Derby that year. The other one was Fresian Fire.
Dunkirk was a gorgeous grey with those snowflake dapples.
I was doing some analysis of the Risen Star today and really like the chances of Private Creed even though he is stuck way outside in gate 14. He has raced only on turf, but impressively so. Seems like a stalking type that makes one sustained run and can keep it up for a distance. I love his pedigree and it certainly looks to be dirt-friendly, and his speed figures are as good as anyone in the race as far as I can tell. Would love to hear from Steve on this one!
He’s pretty much a guess on the dirt and that is a brutal post. But I would love to see how he handles the dirt.
I know that Arabian Knight had a workout yesterday….but I thought that Baffert had earlier said he would give AK some time off….interesting.
Having lost Signator, I am loathe to pick another favorite for fear I will jinx him/her. Right now I like Litigate. Love his pedigree. Also General Jim. Shug McCaughey is a genius and I would love to see him be rewarded by the racing gods. I am a long time admirer of Claiborne and the Phipps family. Back in the day, Drone was also my Derby pick. Really big sigh. Thanks Steve for your insightful analysis.
Steve I am quite fond of two horses right now, one you have highly ranked, Blazing Sevens. He has a very powerful stride and I really didn’t like the ride Prat gave him in the Juvenile. That wide move didn’t seem necessary and it was not rewarded on a short stretch at Keeneland. Looking forward to his next race.
The other is not on your radar yet but he really impressed me with a solid very professional score in his maiden win at Santa Anita. Geaux Rocket Ride will go right into the San Felipe off that maiden score for Richard Mandella, a trainer I know is very conservative about placing his horses. Mandella must be excited about this guy so hopefully he develops and takes to the two turns.
Thanks again for your coverage and thoughtful insights.
GRR is a small blip on my radar. He looks like a very talnted horse, but he is so far behind and with a very consevative trainer I need to take a wait and see approach.
He is way behind. He’ll have to stomp some grapes in the San Felipe and then do it again in the SA Derby if anyone expects to raise a glass of wine to his chances in Louisville, but he sure looks talented. Fingers crossed here and I would love to see Richard get a special horse for May. He’s earned it.
Enjoy reading your comments and columns. A little early to pass judgement on Cave Rock, don’t you think? If you believe Baffert’s comments, he didn’t seem worried about the Rock. He has foundation. He was fast as a two-year-old. He doesn’t need to move forward as much as some of the others to win. Amoss is running Hoosier Philly off only 3 best of works since she ran in late November. Too often, we compare a horse’s race prep today to what seems to have worked before. Each is unique and can have good and bad days just like us. The Rock look solid and went after that inside horse. I can smell what the ROCK is cooking!
Thank you, I didnt pass judgment. If he had worked before Monday before this weeks rankings were sent in he’d still be ranked even though he’ll likely have to go east to get two starts in assuming he’ll have four works and if he is sent to another trainer. Everything you said about him not needing much I said several times in the earlier Rankings. I will see if I can get anything out of Baffert this week if he thinks he can make the Derby. I have already texted him. If he can, with this sharp work in he will be back in the rankings next week .
Baffert can’t talk Derby or plans right now with everyting still up in the air.
True enough. I reiterated some of your comments merely reminding you. I look forward to reading any word you get from Bob. If he was galloping for weeks as reported, it should be full ahead. We’ll see. He’s been my lean for a while. He looked tired in BC Juv which was his 4th race. I like his low to the ground stretching strides. Reminds me a little of Justify. His chest is big and powerful looking. A different build than Knight and Forte who are leggy and ook.like distance shouldn’t be a problem
I think something happened to im in the BC the way he lugged in and lost his action. This was a fast work first time out, so he obviously is getting sharp quickly and shouldnt need much. I heard fom Baffert. He cant talk Derby now on the assumption he’s going to lose these horses. I would hate to see this horse in particular have to change barns.
With Cox and Pletcher having many candidates, why not Doug O? He knows how to train and ship a Derby winner. I am not too worried bout moving horses. Like Bob has said, if the horse is good enough he’ll take you there
I’m guessing Tim Yakteen will get him, if he changes barns.. .they are close.
Thanks again Steve. Faustin: do you know for sure about Faustin being pointed toward one turn races? I believe he is entered in the next Santa Anita 1 1/16 points race. Is it possible that the sheer amount of Baffert horses precluded Faustin to be included in the Lewis?
I’m waiting to hearing somethhing about Baffert’s horses. I would be more convinced he was Derby bound if Baffert had worrked him farther than a half mile, while his other big horses worked 6 furlongs. To me he looks and runs like a distance horse but I’ll wait one more week to see if we learn someting new.
Steve, this year’s Derby Trail is certainly one of the oddest in many a year. Thus far a high proportion of ‘suggested’ real challengers are hidden away or are competing in Allowance races while the Baffert runners are ‘pointless’ achievers. Forgive the pun. How you are monitoring all these colts is a triumph over difficult circumstances. Mind you, I think your overall coverage has been the best yet.
Shadow Dragon intrigues me as well, excellent pedigree review, the Australian sires in the pedigree were blindingly fast sprinters with Marscay winning the prestigious Golden Slipper Stakes. Shadow Dragon’s speed figures should improve as Mott increases the pressure.
Speaking of the Rasmussen Factor (RF), Shopper’s Revenge is running at Oaklawn Park on Saturday in Race 6., yes, in another Allowance. This Tapit colt appears to have oozing talent along with a pedigree to match. There is certainly going to be a scramble for points in a month or so and you can see some unhappy campers at the end of all this. As you mentioned, there are quite a few Tapit colts still in the hunt despite the departure of Signator.
In the Risen Star Stakes, Tapit’s Conquest and Silver Heist have a good chance in representing their great sire along with the grandson in Victory Formation. Will they all start that’s a debatable question.
Thanks again Steve, for your astute observations on what is, and what is not happening, in this year’s run for the roses.
I appreciate it David, thank you. Shopper’s Revenge didnt draw well breaking from the far outside, but his main foes didnt draw great either. All these allowance horses now will likely have only one shot to get Derrby points unless they cram in another race.
Shopper’s Revenge is nominated for the Rebel Stakes so perhaps they’ll skip the allowance because of the poor draw and go to the much tougher Rebel Stakes. Whisper Hill also has Tapit Trice as well so it does allow for a daring move in this very conservative/cautious Derby prep year. Wait and see, I guess.
Steve, any idea where Recruiter may go next? His last work on 2/8 was a bullet, so he’s headed *somewhere.* Would love to see him stretch out.
I havn’t heard anything. I only see he is working well and I’m pretty sure he’ll go 2 turns next time. Just not sure how far he wants to go. I was a little surpised he wasnt entered in Saturday’s Miracle Wood Stakes at a mile.
Yes, Recruiter is an impressive colt but he wasn’t actually nominated for the Triple Crown so they may stick to sprints/mile races. Army Mule has a future as a sire.
STEVE. Great DERBY DOZEN on 2-6 That’s one hell of a KNOCKING ON THE DOOR on 2-13. THANK YOU JOEDERBY
Cannot wait for Forte to run again. Should help the rankings.
Faustin worked 4 furlongs in 46 and change and Reincarnate had a nice work too. I hope they get to somebody as I think they will be major players. Dubyhnell got knocked silly in the Sam Davis so I think he still could be nice. I’m not sure Litigate is the real deal. The rest to me is still a wait and see but so far no others I’m all in On.
Call me crazy but I do like Red Route One the way he can close. About me being crazy, that’s what everybody told me in 2005 when I had Giacomo in the pools and on Derby Day.
Big Monday for Baffert level A horse workouts….besides the breeze from Cave Rock, Arabian Knight worked 3 in 35.60
Check out Faustin and Reincarnates works
Reincarnate….yes….1.11.60 but Faustin…46.40 on Sunday (1/49)….wow.
We’re so fortunate to have Steve writing this Derby blog and keeping it fresh week after week. I learn so much from him, and from the wonderful commenters. Thanks to all of you!
I love what Steve had to say about Kingsbarns and Suerte. I saw both of them at TBD this past weekend and was very impressed. I hope they stay in Florida for the big preps. With the confirmations of Steve’s analyses last week, I actually placed my first wagers in many years. For the Future Wager, I bet $5 each on Practical Move (83-1) and Giant Mischief (43-1). Winnings, if any, will be given to the Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance.
One note about Steve’s comments on Hit Show and how slow times at Aqueduct have translated recently into triple crown success: Hit Show has one or two races to prove that he’s a top contender. Both Mo Donegal and Early Voting had a quick Wood after their slow final times in the Remsen and Withers, respectively.
An unrelated note: Congrats to my absolute favorite football player, Patrick Mahomes, and the rest of the Kansas City Chiefs! Yay!! (Sorry, Bill D)
No problem Roberta
It was one of the best Super Bowls ever, and the Magic Man (Mahomes) deserves being voted MVP of the year, and for the game as well.
Although, I must say that last holding call on the Eagles was questionable to say the least.
Bottom line, I believe the Eagles were out coached.
A lot worse than questionable, especially in that spot. That call decided the game. Great game with a bad, drawn out, inevitable ending because of that call.
Could not have put it better….it’s like refs shut down the game, with two minutes to go and we just watched the clock run out….we (my son and I) were perplexed….
If it was a movie, it was like watching a great thiller that keeps you guessing and then you find out the ending early and have to sit through the last few minutes just waiting for the inevitable conclusion. Puts a damper on the whole movie.
All week long they were comparing Mahomes and Brady, and you just got the feeling they were following a narrative….
But we’re spoiled, Steve! We follow a sport where it’s decided—-in the last jump!
Hello Steve- Glad to see Disarm entered in a 1 Mile Allow. this Sunday at Oaklawn. The race drew 7 and Disarm drew well from PP7. He will be ridden by Ricardo Santana. He has been training light out at the FG and even though it’s a 6 month layoff he looks ready to go. Hopefully he wins this then moves on to challenge in the LA Derby or stay at Oaklawn and train for the ARK Derby. Either way this is exciting news for fans of Disarm. Third place in the 100 point races niw gets you a strong 30 points, which could get you on the Derby with the slew of defections leading up to the race which happens every year. I bet Disarm at 45-1 in November in KDFW2 to win and boxed him with the field. I boxed him in KDFW 5 at 50-1 with Tapits Conquest and Forte. This weekend will be exciting for my KDFW prospects because Tapits Conquest runs on Saturday in the Risen Star. Hope to see Disarm crack your top 12 next week after a strong win in the Allie. And TC moving onto your list with a strong Performance in the Risen Star.
Both should un well. Disarm has a lot of catching up to do, still not having been two turns. Like others he probably will have one stakes race to get points. Good luck with your bets.
Hi Steve – great report as usual. In your comments about Giant Mischief you note that Horseshoe Indianapolis is not exactly a springboard for the Derby, which is true. However, you will recall that Brad Cox used that very track to allow Shedaresthedevil to capture her first stakes. So it has been a springboard for the Oaks! That particular filly always showed great late pace, but started her career breaking so slowly that she had 20 lengths to make up. Her stakes race in Indy was the first time she ran early and just kept pouring it on. I watched her races and training videos coming into the Oaks and played her at 22:1, knowing she was the equal to the very classy horses in that particular Oaks – which I think was one of the most exciting Oaks run in the past few decades.
Steve, I hear you about not going out on a limb with these inexperienced horses! Here it is mid-February and I find myself more excited about recent maiden and allowance winners than any of the stakes horses. The Beyer figs for the Tampa Bay Derby were dismal — Litigate impressed visually but only earned a 77 Beyer. Perhaps the Brisnet and Thoro-Graph figs will tell a different story. From your report, I see those metrics confirmed the slow 82 Beyer Rocket Can received in the Holy Bull.
In recent years, the Kentucky Derby winner has usually made his first 3YO appearance by February. Might this be the year for another American Pharoah or Justify? Or will this be the year a non-stakes winner or — dare I say it — MAIDEN — takes the roses? It could happen.
Thanks for the shout-out on Arthur’s Ride. Was pleased he ran so well in breaking his maiden. The Beyer, if any one is interested, is 89.
Ms Blacktype, I wouldn’t be too concerned about Beyer speed figures at this stage. A lot of the winners, and those placed, this year are extremely inexperienced colts compared to previous years. Wait for the final preps to determine on how the speed figures compare. Expect rapid improvements in a month or so. Let’s hope so. Ha ha
Steve, Groveland should have received 8 points for placing 2nd in Sam F Davis.
I have checked all sites this morning and not seeing his name anywhere.
Any idea why? (Did see Litigate with 20).
Thanks
Not nominated? Maybe that’s why.
Godolphin not nominated?..
A quick word about Crupi. The last time Pletcher ran a maiden in a major stakes he finished 2nd in the Champagne with Commandperformance. Crupi’s last race was by far his best. Hard luck horse who drew badly. Inside source told me they have always liked this horse.
Outside of Arabian Knight I haven’t been impressed by any prep race runner, in 2023….Arabian Knight, Tapit Trice and Skinner have impressed me…..
The Risen Star Stakes might add some sizzle to a somewhat humdrum Derby Trial thus far but that will ultimately depend on who actually starts. There’s been some interesting Allowance races, to build up hope, but this new wave/trend of skipping stakes races with points for allowance races might just backfire at the end.
Really. I thought Reincarnate looked great and pretty darn powerful and Faustin is sitting on go and was never a sprinter so he is going old school but watch out when the distance gets long
I forgot about Reincarnate, I need more than one turn to evaluate Faustin…
Man, I know its early but I don’t like anything yet.
Understandable. I have to like some horses. Lol
Hi Steve
It was good to see the return of the Derby Dozen, and as always, your indepth analysis on your top twelve contenders and those in the KOTD segment. I was delighted to see Hit Show at #6, he continues to be my top selection at this point.
Yesterday, (2-12), I posted by top twelve, ten of which appear on your Week 4 list.
While I was at casino on Saturday, I played a few $2.00 exacta p/w wagers, in Derby Futures Pool 4. I keyed a few bombers on top, with 10 other bombers underneath.
I keyed the following on top, with their closing odds in Pool 4.
Practical Move, (83-1), General Jim, (51-1), Giant Mischief, (43-1), Gun Pilot, (66-1), Rocket Can, (35-1), Litagate, (28-1), Blazing Sevens, (27-1), Verifying, (34-1), Instant Coffee, (22-1) and last but not least Hit Show, (28-1)
Thanks again for all the time and effort you put in, week after week, on your Derby Dozen rankings.
I appreciate it Bill. Those are all good horses. It’s so wide open this year.
I did similar, keying Blazing Sevens and Practical Move top and underneath of: Forte, Instant Coffee, Tapit Trice and all-others, as well as each other….Practical Move is a fetching price! His trainer has a been in the Kentucky Derby winners circle twice, with Bob….
I agree regarding Practical Move. I just returned from Circa and pressed Practical Move at 70-1 and Blazing Sevens at 40-1 (just lowered). I am hopeful both are stronger and faster in their 3 year old debuts soon; then their odds should plummet. Currently, Practical Move is worth $15k and Blazing Sevens is worth $12k….I am happy to load up early at high odds! Good luck: I like to wagers!
I like your wagers! Need to edit!
Hello Steve- Great synopsis on your top 12 and your knocking at the door section. Disarm worked a bullet 1/10 for 5F at FG today. He is bypassing the 14 horse Risen Star field to presumably wait for an allowance race. Based on his works Disarm looks to be sitting on go and hopefully this month he will get entered in a race soon to kick off his 3 year old campaign. The new points system allots 30 points to a 3rd place finisher in the 100 point Races, so maybe Disarm could still get enough points to get in and save his best for Louisville. Either way, he is ready to run now and you have to believe the connections will find him a race soon that fits him. I also am high on Tapit’s Conquest. I bet him to win in KDFW4 at 63-1 and boxed him with Disarm,Forte, and the Field. I also boxed Disarm with Forte. These are my 2 KDFW horses and I’m glad to see TC running in the Risen Star this Saturday. TC drew well from PP8 and seems like he will enjoy the 1 1/8 Risen Star Distance. TC has never finished worse than 2nd in his brief career and IMO is a serious win contender in the Risen Star. A strong performance in the Risen Star would stamp him as a serious Derby contender. I am still high on Disarm and will be happy when he is finally entered in a race. Hopefully Louisville beckons for both of my 2 KDFW horses.
I still like him a lot but he is pushing it now and has a lot of catching up to do. Allowance and then one stakes against the top horsesto get enough points
Correct about Drone, But Lucien didn’t retire then. Remember he still had Dike & Jay Ray on the Triple Crown trail then. He was about to “retire” and visit his friend Alec Head in France, when Eddie Neloy died in ’71 and the Phipps empire began their search for a new trainer.
I said shortly after. Were talking 1969 to 1971. That is shortly after. I wasnt referring to that same year. I remember Dike and Jay Ray very well but this was just about Drone and had to jump forward.
I agree Sun Thunder could step up— he was bogged down inside, in the slop…..not sure about Griveland, I watched his races, small fields and he always gets beat, until a bigger field at Tampa—-I thought he sat a good trip, I just do not think Groveland will be good enough….
Just as a carryover update from week 3 Cave Rock worked out this morning (Monday) going 47.80 for 4 at Santa Anita.
Too little too late
I hate Monday works. Lol.