2023 Derby Rankings – Week 5
Because of a brain meltdown trying to plod through this crop of 3-year-olds, we’re back to a Top 15. This year so far, the weeks come and go with not too much to get excited about. And then there is the confusion of where the Bob Baffert horses are going and which ones will be leaving. I can’t recall ranking this many graded stakes winners so low or not at all. At least we are down to two weeks before the heavy hitters return on March 4 and hopefully clear up this muddled picture. ~ Steve Haskin
Derby Rankings: Feb. 20, 2023 – Week 5
By Steve Haskin
1—Forte (Todd Pletcher, Violence – Queen Caroline, by Blame)
Pletcher loves the way he’s been progressing, especially his most recent five-furlong work in 1:01 2/5. Before we forget just what this colt accomplished as a 2-year-old, he was able to romp by almost eight lengths going five furlongs in his career debut; win the seven-furlong Hopeful Stakes in the slop by three lengths in a swift 1:22 2/5 beating eventual Champagne winner Blazing Sevens by 12 lengths; stretch out to two turns and win the 1 1/16-mile Breeders’ Futurity in a gut-wrenching stretch battle with the talented Loggins; and finally blow by the undefeated California sensation Cave Rock in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile to win going away by 1 1/2 lengths. So until he makes his long-awaited debut on March 4 you have to ask yourself, is there anything this horse can’t do? He knows how to win big, he knows how to gut it out in a close finish, he knows how to win in the slop, he knows how to run fast times, and he knows how to run on the inside and the outside. And he is bred to run all day. That’s the kind of horse you want to face the many challenges of the Kentucky Derby.
2—Tapit Trice (Todd Pletcher, Tapit – Danzatrice, by Dunkirk)
Pletcher said his next race is “still to be determined.” Last week I said I was going to discuss Tapit Trice’s broodmare sire Dunkirk. A son of Unbridled’s Song who sold as a yearling for a whopping $3.7 million, he did not race at 2 and then easily won his first two career starts at 3. He was thrown into the Florida Derby and rallied from eight lengths back to be beaten by 1 3/4 lengths by Quality Road in a swift 1:47 3/5. With only three career starts he ran in the Kentucky Derby and had a horrible trip in the slop, stumbling badly at the start and then having to steady, finishing in midpack. He then ran in the Belmont Stakes and set a strong pace, then battled back gamely when challenged in the stretch by Mine That Bird. He never saw the winner, Summer Bird, who rallied out in the middle of the track, and had to settle for second. His performance looked all the more remarkable when he was found to have suffered a condylar fracture to his left hind cannon bone during the race. He never raced again and was retired to Ashford Stud. Tapit Trice is inbred 3 x 4 top and bottom to Kentucky Derby and Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Unbridled and 3 x 4 top and bottom to Belmont Stakes and Breeders’ Cup Classic winner A.P. Indy. His tail-female line traces to Drone, the broodmare sire of two Kentucky Derby winners and an Arc de Triomphe winner who we wrote about last week. Tapit Trice, a gray like Dunkirk, Drone and Unbridled’s Song, reminds me a great deal of all three off these imposing brilliant colts.
3—Arabian Knight (Bob Baffert, Uncle Mo – Borealis Night, by Astrology)
Baffert is not known for working his top Derby horses three furlongs, but he worked Arabian Knight in :35 3/5 and he’s had only that one short blowout in the past three weeks. Here we are heading to the end of February and we either have no idea where a number of the top-ranked horses are running next or we still have to wait several weeks until their 3-year-old debut. So it is just questions and speculation each week. So where does that leave this colt? I have no idea who will be training him after February 28, but either way I am guessing he will stay in California and point for the San Felipe on March 4 rather than travel cross-county again. But you would think he needs to start putting some serious works. Hopefully in the next couple of days. Right now all we can do is try to figure out if he is as good as he’s looked in his first two starts. Remember, his Thoro-Graph number in the Southwest was a bit slower than his maiden victory, which is not really a bad thing considering what a big number he got in that first race. He is the only brilliant 3-year-old we’ve seen so far so we’ll just stay on the bandwagon…for now.
4—Practical Move (Tim Yakteen, Practical Joke – Ack Naughty, by Afleet Alex)
I still can’t believe this colt closed at 83-1 in the most recent Future Wager. He is the only horse in California you could have bet on and he was totally ignored by everyone. Check out his last three works, all at five furlongs — :59, :59 1/5, and :59 1/5. Also, check out his last three Thoro-Graph numbers – 8 1/4, 5 1/4, and 3 3/4. So not only is he training up a storm he is improving at a steady pace. And he is the only horse in California to derail the Baffert Express. He as the speed figures, the running style, the foundation, and the pedigree to be a major player on the Derby trail. Did I mention 83-1? There is no doubt he is sitting on a huge effort in the March 4 San Felipe Stakes. Yakteen, according to the Gotham nominations list, has already received several of Baffert’s horses, but the big names are still in their barn, so he should get a good test, which he will need having only two starts.
5—Hit Show (Brad Cox, Candy Ride – Actress, by Tapit)
One thing I like about him is not only has his Beyer figures gotten faster with each race they have increased 11 points, 11 points, and nine points. These obviously are consistently big jumps and he has still left himself room to make another significant move forward in his next race. In his allowance victory prior to the Withers his Thoro-Graph numbers jumped from a 10 1/2 and 12 3/4 to a 4 3/4. You might expect a regression off such a big jump or at best to stay around that same number, but he actually took another step forward to a 2, which is the fastest number by a 3-year-old this year. So this colt is ascending rapidly. He likely will have only one more start with a 1 1/16-mile race, a one-mile race, and a 1 1/8-mile race already under his belt, and that should come in a return trip to New York for the Wood Memorial, giving him a two-month layoff between nine-furlong races. Having already run so fast on Thoro-Graph and being on such an upward progression I would imagine one more race should be all he needs to put him in position to peak on Derby Day. And as I mentioned last week he won’t even turn 3 until May 9. So this colt has a lot going for him right now.
6—Blazing Sevens (Chad Brown, Good Magic – Trophy Girl, by Warrior’s Reward)
He stretched out to five furlongs in his works, going an easy 1:02 1/5 at Payson Park. He remains on target for the March 4 Fountain of Youth Stakes where he will have to take on last year’s champion Forte. Even a fast-closing second or third would be a good first step, but he would have to come back with a huge effort in his final prep. Despite his Champagne Stakes victory in his third career start I don’t think we’ve seen anywhere near the best of him, and his fourth-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile may be the best race he’s run considering the trouble he had. All signs point to him improving with every start and I am looking forward to seeing what kind of transition he’s made from 2 to 3. He should also have a good foundation working over the deeper Payson Park surface.
7—Verifying (Brad Cox, Justify – Diva Delitee, by Repent)
His new ranking is mainly in preparation n for a big effort in Saturday’s Rebel Stakes, where he squares off with stablemate Giant Mischief, and if either of these two should win and win impressively then they have to emerge as major Derby contenders. Both colts tuned up for the Rebel with sharp five-furlong works in :59 4/5, and both horses are coming off identical 5 1/2 Thoro-Graph numbers. I like that Verifying came off a six-furlong career debut to finish second in the Champagne Stakes and bounced back from a troubled start in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile to win a one-mile allowance race by 5 1/2 lengths with first-time Lasix, easily handling runner-up Gun Pilot and Two Eagles River, who both came back to score impressive allowance victories. It is the form from that race that gives Verifying a slight edge in the Rankings over Giant Mischief. Verifying’s Beyer figures are climbing with every race and he looks like a colt with good tactical speed who can carry it.
8—Giant Mischief (Brad Cox, Into Mischief – Vertical Oak, by Giant Oak)
As mentioned, Cox has two heavy hitters going in Saturday’s Rebel Stakes, with this colt making his 3-year-old debut and Verifying coming off an impressive allowance victory. This will be by far the best field Giant Mischief has faced in is three career starts. He should have won the Springboard Mile, but lost all chance when he broke far behind the field. We know he can gut it out in a stretch battle, even though the horse he beat, Arabian Lion, has turned out to be a big disappointment. But he sure looked like a promising colt going into that race. All I’m looking for from Giant Mischief is to get a clean trip and show that same quick turn of foot he displayed in his previous races, and of course be closing at the end. As I’ve been saying, I’m still not sure how far he wants to go or how he will fare against better quality horses, but this race will show us if he belongs and which direction he is heading. I actually like him slightly better than Verifying as a potential Derby horse because of his style of running, his versatility, and the aforementioned turn of foot. But for now Verifying looks to be the more brilliant of the two and is coming off that formful allowance victory.
9—Cave Rock (Bob Baffert, Arrogate – Georgie’s Angel, by Bellamy Road)
He returns to the Rankings after finally having is first work of the year. Not only did her return after a much-needed three-month freshening for whatever reason, he came back running with a sharp half-mile drill in :47 4/5. I’m not sure if he was intended to go that fast, as he hooked up with another worker at the top of the stretch. But he did everything easily with the rider up in the saddle and never moving his hands. He had his usual smooth low action and was striding out beautifully. I can pretty much repeat what I wrote about Arabian Knight and where he might wind up and with whom. With him, however, the key word is “when.” We will have to see how many works it is going to take him to get race ready, but we do know he is going to need two starts, and once that big March 4 weekend passes it is going to get petty dicey trying to accomplish that. Let’s not forget how talented and brilliantly fast this colt is and how he dominated all his opponents in Southern California, as Baffert-heavy as they were. I’m giving him a pass in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile because I am convinced he wasn’t right in that race, especially the way he lost his action in the stretch after setting a contentious pace, lugging in and jumping back to his left lead. So we not only need to see the old Cave Rock, we need to see Cave Rock, period. Until then it is more waiting and seeing what develops over the next couple of weeks.
10—Instant Coffee (Brad Cox, Bolt d’Oro – Follow No One, by Uncle Mo)
He finally returned to the work tab after a month and now is likely to make his next start in the Louisiana Derby. Even though he seems to be back on track after taking a mini vacation, despite having only four career starts, he will have only one race in 14 weeks going into the Kentucky Derby. I don’t know if Cox is a speed sheets follower, but Instant Coffee’s Thoro-Graph numbers did jump from an 8 1/2 to a 2 1/2 in the LeComte, so is it possible that is what contributed to him skipping the Risen Star, to prevent a “bounce” or regression and give him more time to recover from such a big leap forward? The LeComte runner-up Two Phil’s did come back in the Risen Star and finished a rather lackluster third, tiring in the final furlong in a race that got only an 87 Beyer speed figure. Or was this Cox’s plan along? Let’s face it, we know most horses now hardly race, with the days of two and three weeks between races long gone, but we will just have to see if such a light campaign and so little racing leading up to the Derby proves successful, whether it was originally intended or not. His record shows he belongs among the top-ranked horses, even though the two horses who finished second to him in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes and LeComte have not exactly set the world on fire since. But give him credit at least for winning two stakes in a row and three of four lifetime and always giving 100 percent.
11—Reincarnate (Tim Yakteen, Good Magic – Allanah, by Scat Daddy)
He was entered in Saturday’s Rebel Stakes under trainer Tim Yakteen’s name as the exodus continues. He worked six furlongs in company with National Treasure with both going in 1:11 4/5. Reincarnate sat off his stablemate’s flank, pulled on even terms nearing the quarter pole but couldn’t get his head in front down the stretch and on the gallop-out. When the roles were reversed in the Sham Stakes it was National Teeasure who couldn’t get past Reincarnate. We should know more about him after the Rebel Stakes, as he makes is first start back east and under a new trainer and faces his toughest field so far. We know this colt is strong and tough and has learned how to win his races after starting his career on the grass. And he should have the stamina to carry his speed. So far, Yakteen has been able to keep his new Baffert horses away from his own star, Practical Move.
12—General Jim (Shug McGaughey, Into Mischief – Inspired by Grace, by Curlin)
Because of his victory at seven furlongs not many are looking at him as a major Derby contender or even a Derby contender period. Churchill Downs has declared sprints persona non grata when it comes to the Derby. But he doesn’t run or look like a sprinter, McGaughey has already trained a Derby winner, Into Mischief has already sired a Derby winner, Curlin is a Preakness and Breeders’ Cup Classic winner, he has already won at 1 1/16 miles twice, and his female family is inundated with stamina influences. To me his 51-1 odds in the Future Wager look pretty appealing for those who decided he could be a Derby horse. McGaughey as usual thought of the horse first and felt the sprint was the best place for him, points or no points. We should know a lot more after his next start in the Gotham Stakes, which could lead to the Wood Memorial.
13—Angel of Empire (Brad Cox, Classic Empire – Armony’s Empire, by To Honor and Serve)
Well, he did win the Risen Star Stakes, the first 50-pointer, and he did turn the tables on his Smarty Jones Stakes conqueror Victory Formation. But other than that the quality of the Risen Star remains open to question. After five starts he hit his high Beyer figure, but it was only an 87, which leaves him a lot to do before being considered one of the top Derby contenders. His first three starts were run at Horseshoe Indianapolis (formerly Indiana Grand) twice and Kentucky Downs so he is pretty much just beginning his climb up class ladder, and he hasn’t done badly at all with a stakes placing at Oaklawn Park and a stakes victory at Fair Grounds. In any event, the Cox deluge continues and we have no choice but to stuff the Rankings with them until the big-name horses show up.
14—Red Route One (Steve Asmussen, Gun Runner – Red House, by Tapit)
He breezed an easy half in :50 4/5 at Oaklawn Park in preparation for Saturday’s Rebel Stakes. I can see this colt moving up in the Rankings after this race despite the high level of competition expected. In short I expect him to be closing at the end no matter how the race shapes up and who wins. He is a lot better than his record might indicate and he surly has the foundation and the experience with six lifetime starts, all at a mile or longer. And as I have mentioned he is bred to run all day. I am still convinced he would have won the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes if he didn’t have such a horrible trip. He could turn out to be quite an overlay in the Future Wager at 58-1.
15—Sun Thunder (Kenny McPeek, Into Mischief – Greenfield d’Oro, by Medaglia d’Oro)
Even though he was outrun and beaten fair and square by Angel of Empire in the Risen Star Stakes, I liked the way he rebounded off his fourth-place finish in the Southwest Stakes in the slop and the way he was striding out in the stretch of the Risen Star after closing from 10th to be beaten a length. Yes, he needs to improve his speed ratings but at least they have been getting better with each race. He just needs to start picking it up and repeat that explosive move his showed in his maiden victory.
KNOCKING ON THE DOOR
I can’t remember so many horses looking like potential Derby contenders one day and looking like non contenders the next. But horses keep plummeting off the Rankings, with VICTORY FORMATION and BANISHING being the latest to disappoint, along with the established CURLY JACK and to a lesser degree TWO PHIL’S and TAPIT’S CONQUEST, who didn’t run badly in the Risen Star, but didn’t run that well either. And the first two finishers, Angel of Empire and Sun Thunder, showed they still have a ways to go before being considered serious Derby contenders. That is how it has gone this year, which is why we are reaching into allowance races. But as Banishing and several others have shown, even that hasn’t worked out very often.
Speaking of allowance races, all that TWO EAGLES RIVER needed apparently was an easy uncontested lead from the rail to put it all together, as he ran off with a one-mile allowance race at Oaklawn Sunday, winning by four lengths and coming home is last two eighths each in a quick :12 1/5 while striding out beautifully in the stretch. This was a big improvement off his well-beaten third to Verifying in a strong allowance race. This could be a breakout race for the son of Cloud Computing, who already has a strong victory and second at Churchill Downs. Do not dismiss the runner-up DISARM, who will move way up off his second-place finish. The son of Gun Runner hadn’t run since early August, was making only his third career start, was stretching out to two turns for the first time, and had to run hard all the way and then try to catch the loose on the lead winner off those fast last fractions. He still was able to distance himself from the rest of field and was finding his best stride in the final furlong. This colt was ranked early on because of his potential and that potential is still there.
Are we seeing a new weird trend on the Derby trail that we have never seen before? First we had Maximum Security running in a $16,000 claiming race and winning by almost 10 lengths, then finishing first in the Kentucky Derby. Then we had Rich Strike running in a $20,000 claiming race and winning by 17 1/4 lengths, then winning the Kentucky Derby at 80-1. Now we have AIRTIME running in a $50,000 claiming race and winning by 10 1/4 lengths, then coming right back and beating the 3-2 favorite SHOPPER’S REVENGE in an allowance race, which put him on the Derby trail. In the last two races we mentioned, both horses were claimed out of that race. Is this a case of trainers and owners misjudging the talent of their horses, or horses just making huge improvement, or simply that there isn’t that much difference between the so-called good horses and bad horses? From a history standpoint, when Charismatic, who ran in a $62,500 claiming race, won the Kentucky Derby he became the first former claimer to win the Derby since Dust Commander nearly 30 years earlier.
Going back to the spacing of Instant Coffee’s races leading up to the Derby, I am going to interject a memory/history lesson. In 1969 most everyone feared that the Derby favorite Top Knight was not right because his trainer Ray Metcalf said he was not going to run the colt in the five weeks between the Florida Derby and Kentucky Derby. That was pretty much unheard of back then. As it turned out Top Knight was not right and was never the same horse. There was no other reason to wait five whole weeks. Now we have Oaklawn Park changing the date of the Arkansas Derby from three weeks out, where it had good success, to five weeks out. The Blue Grass Stakes had great success when it was run nine days before the Derby. Now it is four weeks out and the last Blue Grass winner to win the Derby was Strike the Gold over 30 years ago. Is anyone aware that Triple Crown winners Citation and Whirlaway and most of the Calumet Farm Kentucky Derby winners ran in the Derby Trial four days before the Derby… and they all had a workout in between? Do you think the training game, and perhaps the Thoroughbred, has changed?
One horse whose two-turn debut should be very revealing is the Baffert-trained FAUSTIN, who blazed five furlongs in :58 4/5. We could see him in the San Felipe, as well as the recent impressive maiden winner SKINNER, trained by John Shirreffs.
Others to watch in the Rebel Stakes are the aforementioned allowance winner GUN PILOT and the Southwest third-place finisher FROSTED DEPARTURE.
Getting back to the Gotham Stakes nominations, three of the colts nominated, HEJAZI, CARMEL ROAD, and ARABIAN LION, all formerly trained by Baffert, are now listed under the name Tim Yakteen. Hejazi, the $3.55 million 2-year-old purchase, and Carmel Road, second in the Los Alamitos Futurity to Practical Move, both worked five furlongs in :59 1/5 and would seem to fit very well in the Gotham. Another former Baffert colt, FORT WARREN, a well-beaten third in the San Vicente Stakes, is on the Gotham nominations list with trainer Brittany Russell.
In other works of note, Holy Bull Stakes winner ROCKET CAN breezed a half in :49 4/5 at Payson Park, and at Turfway Park, Leonatus Stakes winner FUNTASTIC AGAIN worked a strong five furlongs in 1:01.
As if Brad Cox doesn’t have enough 3-year-olds to keep track of, watch out for the undefeated EYEING CLOVER in the Gotham Stakes, which is looking like a very live race. The son of Lookin At Lucky has won a pair of six-furlong sprints, the last a 9 3/4-length romp at Oaklawn. He is bred to go long, so if he runs a big race in the Gotham he likely will return to Oaklawn and point for the Arkansas Derby.
Another Baffert horse, WORCESTER, a son of Empire Maker who finished third in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes as a maiden, is headed for the UAE Derby.
Racing historian, author, and award-winning retired journalist for the Daily Racing Form and The Blood-Horse, Steve Haskin was inducted into the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame’s Media Roll of Honor in 2016. Known for his racing knowledge and insightful prose, he has been an exclusive contributor to Secretariat.com since 2020.
New Rankings should be posted shortly
While we await Steve’s Week 6 Rankings, I’ll revise my top 15 (based on the transfer of Arabian Knight)
1) Hit Show
2) Forte
3) Arabian Knight
4) Tapit Trice
5) Practical Move
6) Confidence Game
7) Red Route One
8) Blazing Sevens
9) Angel of Empire
10) Instant Coffee
11) Reincarnate
12) Cave Rock
13) Two Eagles River
14) Litigate
15) Lugan Knight
Ooh, I love Equibase! Something occurred to me about the Fountain of Youth Stakes so I looked it up on Equibase. It’s an interesting parallel between this year’s race and one not too long ago. I’ll keep you all in suspense until Steve’s week 6 ranking is posted. Ha ha!
Roberta:
I can’t wait!
I am very much looking forward to FOY; maybe it will have a definitive winner in a fast time…
Hi Roberta
Steve usually posts his Weekly Derby Rankings early, on Monday mornings. I’m wondering, why the delay?
I’m sure he has his reasons. Hopefully, he is well and will post Week 6 at his earliest convenience.
Bill, as far as I know Steve is fine. He posted on FB earlier today.
He does usually post his rankings by 11 though.
Could be gremlins on the cable lines again.
I thought maybe he was reworking his column based on the announcement of the transfer of Arabian Knight to Mr Yakteen.
We got a late start because of the last minute Arabian Knight announcement so I had to make some late changes. But I havent even gotten the column to review so I dont know whats holding it up this long.
Gremlins.
It’s offical, Baffert has switched his top Derby contenders, includng Arabian Knight to Tim Yakeen’s barn.
After the Derby, those horses will be switched back to Baffert.
I’m hoping that the lengthy, off-topic posts/arguments about genetics end with Derby Rankings-Week 5. They add nothing of value to discussions about the Kentucky Derby. Fine if you want to mention LHG in passing as a factor in your considerations, but this blog is about the Derby and about our observations and handicapping evaluations of Derby hopefuls.
No idea how long you have been commenting on Steve’s blog both here and on Blood Horse, but we have often gone off topic even on the Derby Dozen and on the Derby Rankings.
Sometimes these discussions have arisen has the result of a question or statement Steve makes in his rankings.Sometimes the ” off topic” conversations come in relation to “handicapping” these races and the horses.
On this particular post, Steve asked the question in the Knocking On the Door section if the training methods have changed ot the Thoroughbred has changed.
If you or anyone else for that matter sees a post that you are not interested in either as the result of the content or the person making the comment, one can always do what many people on FB do…blow on by it.
The one thing I have so appreciated about Steve’s blogs for years is the family or community aspect of the followers.
People who live in different sections of the country and in other countries; people from different professions and people who have owned horses, even if that is just a share in a race horse; people who have followed the sport for decades or are newbies; people who bet and people who don’t.
Sometimes I read most all the comments, sometimes I don’t. When followers start going in depth on handicapping the horses and races, as a rule I don’t say anything. I tend not to put my 2 cents worth in on a topic that I know nothing about.
If I have a wish gor the blog going forward it would be more courtesy and fewer personal attacks or making someone who comments feel like they are of no value to the conversation.
Steve has been very gracious down through the years with not only sharing his knowledge and expertise but also his photo album of all these horses and people he has met up close and personal down through years. The back stories on the horses, the owners, the jockeys and the trainers.
Steve has been very gracious and generous to let our conversations go off topic. We have cried together, laughed together, celebrated together and mourned together and learned not only from him but each other.
I don’t think you will find all of this anywhere else.
You just can’t help yourself, I guess. I expressed my hope and my opinion. I didn’t tell anyone what to do. If you consider my posts to be personal attacks, just “blow on by” them. You already said that you would do so, yet you continue to read my comments.
Simon, there’s a blog on The Blood-Horse website called “Unlocking Winners” you might find of more value to you. The blog concentrates on handicapping. Steve’s assessments are always fun to read and of value here. Steve always advises to just simply ignore the posters that annoy you and don’t respond in their comments.
Don’t change..
I’m not saying I’m all that into bloodlines, but it is interesting. A bigtime trainer once said he judges horses three ways..first and foremost is running talent.. .a close second is conformation, and third is blood lineage, so I guess he liked Chrome!..
Matthew W..I laughed out loud when I read this about the trainer and Chrome. Thank you!
We all need more laughing moments! You’re a treasure, Lynda..
You too Matthew!
If I have a wish for the Derby Rankings going forward it would more respect, more courtesy for each other snd less of making people feel as they have nothing to contribute or making things “personal”.
Way down in this blog thread you asked where I am from, Utopia?
Not Utopia, but many of us think it is utopia here.
In case you haven’t guessed I am GRITS…girls raised in the South.
My cat’s name is Grit!..She’s tough as nails!
Great name for a female cat!
Wonder…has a filly ever been named Grit?
Very old Bedoiun and Native American superstition. Do not give a horse a human name, its bad luck.
Name them something that describes them.
Well then our pets follow those caveats, Our cat is Grit….Great Dane is Blues…..and two rabbits named Snowball and Mustachio, who after having several litters (monthly) we had her spayed….she already had the double mustache, after spaying she grew a beard!.
It’s NOT personal. I don’t know you and you don’t know me.
Other than occasional posts here i have never engaged in any type of social media. Maybe that is apparent, since based on responses, or lack thereof, i just don’t have a knack for conversational writing. Having said that, i do enjoy reading most of the posts and find it unfortunate that some people turn differences of opinion about race horses turns personal attacks. Could be just another symptom of our current culture of self isolation and its effects on communication skills. A songwriter i admire penned the line “knowledge adds, wisdom lets slide.” I aspire to abide by that sentiment.
Todd, whether fortunately or unfortunately for me, I am a conversational writer.
I so wish sometimes that I could say in 6 words what I say in 6 paragraphs, LOL.
I find your comment interesting. The Internet age, 24/hour news cycles, headline new and reporting, texting are just z few of the factors that have lead to an “instant gratification” society. Maybe as far as far back as the Vietmam War with embedded reporters being the lead story on the evening news. Short, point by point reporting with video telling most of the story.
I can tell by the comments on other sites, be it news or FB etc that most people today read and comment on just the headlines.
Growing up my late Dad read the newspaper 7 days a week front to back wirh exception of the Sports section, which he handed off to me.
How many people today take delivery of the newspapers, much less read it cover to cover?
My writing style did serve me well in my career that required technical writing skills. Being able to make an argument for either an extension to run a USDA product or receive a temporary approval required my writing style.
Hi Simon
I’ll take full responsibility for starting the discussions on the X-Factor large heart gene, but when you state “they add nothing of value to discussions about the Kentucky Derby”, I find that statement somewhat troubling. I see no harm in discussing pedigrees and the genetics that are associated with same. The handicapping process involves the factoring in of various criterion, which must include his or her pedigree, IMO.
If and when Steve Haskin requests an ending to all discussions relating to the large heart gene, I will certainly abide by that request.
Have a great day Simon.
Hi, Bill. I made a point about “lengthy” posts. In fact, I was thinking about your occasional comments on the LHG when I wrote about “mention[ing] LHG in passing as a factor.” I have no more issue with that than I do with an occasional comment about a favorite horseracing movie or the best restaurant in Lexington or Saratoga Springs. But, in this blog, it’s not easy to go back to previous threads to follow the conversations, and it’s even harder when there are very lengthy posts to scroll through.
Your points are well taken Simon.
Peace Brother.
Bill, it was directed at me eventhough my name was not used.
Guess I am done here, at least on this topic.
One final comment about large hearts, inbreeding etc in Thoroughbred race horses.
The discovery of DNA in the 50’s and the subsequent development of methodology to test DNA in the 1980’s have both served to revolutionize the science of genetics.
Theories are a dime a dozen, but really have no value because they are theories, opinions that expound upon “circumstantial” evidence.
The late Marianna Haun was present at Claiborne Farm or so she says the night Secretariat was euthanized. She is the one too who supposedly released the news about his death to the press.
When she learned about the autopsy report on the weight of Secretariat’s heart, she came up with a theory about LHG and proceeded to provide an explanation about how this X-factor evolved.
When Anne Peters “debunked” Ms Haun’s theory, she used basically the same process that Ms Haun did, pedigree analysis.
Neither of these women used The Scientific Method; neither of these women explored what science and genetic testing of DNA has learned so far.
Ms Haun did take the first step in The Scientific Method, however, by forming a question that leads or should lead to a hypothesis.
Eclipse was an extraordinary horse. He was what we would refer to as a “freak”, an anomaly. He raced 18 times, he won 18 times plus he won 7 race heats. When Eclipse was racing it was in an era when a heat was run on a 4 mile track and there were up to 3 heats raced on one day. He carried up to 168 pounds in weight in most of his races.
Eclipse stood slightly over 16 hands, his croup was one inch higher than his withers. He was sound, very strong and was very difficult to handle because of his temperament. His running style was described as being lowering his head down so far that his nose almost touched the ground. He was ridden, switching from galloping to walking, for up to 68 miles to get to racetracks. His stride is said to have been 25 feet and at top speed he could cover 83 feet per second.
Upon his death at age 27 from a colic, there was a necropsy performed. His heart was recorded as having weighed 14 pounds.
Yes, his pedigree is somewhat sketchy. In those days breeding records were not very well maintained. In addition Eclipse raced before the first official stud book in 1791. However we do his sire was from the Darley line and his damsire from the Godolphin and in both his dam and sire lines, “Turk”.
Was Eclipse’s heart a recessive mutant gene that first showed up in him? Was his large heart the result of a double copy? These are questions that have not been definitively answered by “science”, but “science” is getting closer because of DNA testing and gene mapping in the Thoroughbred.
What has been learned so far is there is a speed gene (which started as a theory), that there are at least 7 genetic factors that distinguish the Thoroughbred and the Arabian from all other breeds of horses and that these 7 factors also appear in the American Quarter Horse and the Morgan.
In the conversation below, Sarah mentions the Royal Foundation mares. Based on study in 2010 that was published in 2010 by the Royal Society, based on DNA testing, these mares were largely from the British Isles followed by Oriental (non Arab, Turk and Barb) and Arabian (purebred).
There has been some research to indicate some of the British mares were a now extinct Irish Connemara type.
Based on a report published around 2002 by the Smurfit Genetic Institute, there were 28 mares that had the greatest impact on the Thoroughbred and an additional 50 or so who had a lesser impact.
The point of all this is that Eclipse was the first Thoroughbred to be reported as having a larger than average heart; the large heart was again reported from the necropsies of Phar Lap, Secretariat and Key To The Mint and supposedly Sham.
The origins of a so called LHG have not been established.
A specific LHG has not yet been identified through genetic testing. As Sarah suggests in her comment it might be expressed in an epigene. The other possibility is the large heart is the result of a combination of several of the 7 genes identified in the 2022 report.
Ultimately it will be genetic research and DNA testing that will determine the existence of such a “gene” which will lead to the origins of the “gene” and how it was passed down generation after generation.
The American Thoroughbred was originally a very diverse breed, as diverse as the Arabian, the Morgan and the English and Irish Thoroughbred.
Because of intentional and deep inbreeding for almost 50 years to Native Dancer, Mr Prospector, Unbridled and Unbridled’s Song and ultimately to a 95% saturation of the Darley Arabian, the diversity score for the American Thoroughbred has dropped like a rock. This intense intense in breeding has brought its own set of problems ranging from infertility rates for mares and stallions, lethal genes emergering, skeletal breakdowns and sudden cardiac arrest deaths.
The question has been asked as to why Japan has emerged as a leading country on the International scene. The answer most likely is the result of the attention that the JRC has paid to genetic research in the past 40 years. As Panthalassa’s trainer said, it has all finally come together.
In closing, I think it is very foolish for anyone to discount the possibility of a large heart gene or X-factor (X representing unknown) based on one person’s take, that person being Anne Peters.
On a side note, I was in college study for a degree in Medical Research Technology when the procedures for DNA testing evolved. I retired a few years ago from over a 25 year career in the Food Industry, specifically in the Meat and Poultry Industry. Most of my positions and career were in Research and Developement and Quality Assurance, both driven by science.
A few years ago genetic research finally proved that Native American Indians have one common ancestor, which for years was just a theory. The reason that was important to me was that I am one fourth blood quorum Native American Indian (specifically Cherokee and an a now extinct Siouan Tribe. I had known for years that I was Cherokee, on paper, by studying my “pedigree”.
Yes pedigree analysis is important but it is genetic testing that confirms it.
Equine DNA and genetics is very complicated and very similar to human genetics. It takes years to unravel it.
So I continue to take the stance, “TBD” on the X-Factor gene and that because of my “science” background, the ultimate answer will come from “science”.
Excellent post, Lynda. I’m going to clip and save it. Thanks, too, for telling us about your personal genealogical research and Cherokee heritage. At the moment I’m re-reading Thirteen Moons by Charles Frazier, which is set in the years before and during the expulsion of the Cherokee from far west North Carolina and northwest Georgia. There are still Cherokee in this region today, undoubtedly some of which are your ancestors. If you haven’t read the book, I highly recommend it. Frazier turned dry, painful history into a beautifully written story.
A clarification: some of the Cherokee remained here after the expulsion, undoubtedly some of which are your ancestors.
Thank you for the book suggestion. I will certainly read it.
My Native American Indian ancestry actually originates from both sides of my family.
My maternal great Grandfather was full blood Cherokee. He was from North Carolina and moved from North Carolina to the Mount Airy area of North Carolina then over the mountain to Virginia, finally settling in southwest Virginia in the 1880 ‘s. My maternal great grandmother was his second wife. His first wife was Cherokee.
One of my paternal great grandmothers was Cherokee and Scot. A second paternal great, great grandmother was half Cherokee.
After the passage of the Indian Removal Act, many Cherokee and other tribes were forced on the Trail of Tears. Other Cherokee stayed behind and lived on the Cherokee Reservation. Others fled into the Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains and assimilated into the Scot families in Virginia.
Your true family history is a story unto itself!
Pedigree Ann mentioned Ann Peters yesterday, on another blog….coincidence! Sometimes I see a coincidence like that and think stars allining!
Matthew, Anne Peters is one of the most highly respected professionals regarding pedigree analysis. You can search The Blood-Horse to read numerous articles written by her.
Well stated Lynda
I’m sure you’re held in high esteem by members of the Cherokee Nation, and by several of the regulars on this site, myself included.
Please continue to express your thoughts and opinions, they’re well received on this end.
Take care Lynda.
Hi Steve- what’s your views on Kingsbarns as a KY Derby contender. Two weeks ago he romped in an Allow. race at TB and he is being pointed to the LA Derby to get points. How do you view his pedigree Steve? It seems to me that even though he is lightly raced colt that he could have a shot in the LA Derby seeing how no apparent standouts have emerged. The LA Derby is 1 3/16 so Kingsbarns stamina will be put to the test.
I wrote after his maiden win how much I like him. But I’m not crazy about him having three lifetime starts before the Ky. Derby Everythingg else about him I love.
I wish Tim Yakteen well—he won’t get much credit for any wins–but he’ll get all the blame for any losses..
I didn’t see Tim riding Reincarnate so I doubt he will get any blame.
Maybe Johnny V should take a bit of the blame for expecting that there would be no rough riding on the slop….
Matthew, Tim Yakteen has 5 colts entered in the San Filipe Stakes, that’s a lot of owners to try and please while giving that many jockeys instructions prior to a race. I hope Yakteen shines through it all, it’s a tough ask.
I wonder if in Tim’s barn area there will be any of Bobby’s staff giving assistance….
hmmmm
Interesting question, BrudderA. Steve and Matthew would know more than I would. I know Marcelo Polanco is presently a trainer in California.
Humberto Ascanio, Jose Cuevas, Ikm not sure about, Sally Lundy passed in September 2017, and Ruben Loza I’m not sure about either. Hopefully, Steve or Matthew can be more helpful. Good luck.
Sorry BrudderA, it’s a very late night here with red wine. I was thinking of Bobby Frankel’s team, not Bob Baffert’s team and just realized your question was about Bob Baffert’s team. Lol.
Matthew or Steve could answer that better than I could. Ask them. I’m living in Melbourne, Australia now. Ha ha
No problems. I’m currently in Adelaide…
Ah, ha, the city of churches. No doubt you are appreciating the cooler weather now. Last week was just horrid.
It rained cats and dogs in SoCal yesterday, rainy and cold…..and Santa Anita being in the mountain foothills gets lots more rain….
A frog strangler was it?
LOL.
That’s your ‘atmospheric river’ downloading its volume, Matthew. Perhaps, it’s the ‘Pineapple Express’, funny name, it’s a renowned atmospheric river that is often bringing moisture from the tropics near Hawaii over to the US West Coast.
Sydney gets atmospheric river downfalls in Australia as well. Not sure how the change in weather pattern from La Niña to El Niño, from wet to dry, at the end of this year is going to affect the Pacific Rim countries. Drought seems inevitable.
It’s drizzling here in Melbourne at the moment after a heat weave but not serious rain which we need.
Not an ‘Pineapple Express’ that comes from the south Pacific nor an atmospheric river….as I can know being in the Pacific Northwest but a coaster ‘hugger’ bringing cold temps down from the south Alaska, south BC, south Washington state and into California.
Thanks John, I was wondering if it was an ‘atmospheric river’ or not because they can cause catastrophic damage and loss of life when it downloads the huge volume of water. Do you know if California or other parts of the West Coast are in danger of one of theses atmospheric rivers in the near future? Thanks.
Yes, it happens as it follows the jet stream which may take dead aim on Calfifornia. However, living in the Seattle area the jet stream often follows a nothern route and has Seattle in its bullseye…hence the saying it rains in Seattle nine months out of the year.
From approximately November through February and many times beyond it is normal to have the jet stream brings two or three storms a week to the Pacific Northwest.
I couldn’t quite believe that horny old chestnut “X factor or Large heart gene,” which was disproved way back in 2016 by Anne Peters, was resurfacing as fact by a poster on Steve Haskin’s Derby Rankings. Here’s a snippet of the scientific explanation from Anne Peters’ longer essay debunking this fantasy.
“Third, and most importantly, while it wouldn’t be surprising to find that natural heart size has a genetic component, and so could be inherited in a reasonably predictable manner, the mapping of the equine genome has proven that heart size is not passed on the X chromosome. If Haun hadn’t been so adamant that the large heart factor was on the X chromosome specifically, she wouldn’t have dug such a deep hole for her theory.
As I’ve said, if a breeding strategy doesn’t make genetic sense, then it’s not a valid breeding strategy. If the Large Heart Gene does not exist in horses on the X chromosome as the theory states, that’s about as solid a genetic debunking as you can get.” – Anne Peters 2016
Anne Peters is one of the most respected pedigree analysts in the US. Anne worked for The Blood-Horse for many years and numerous stud farms, Three Chimneys Farm among others. For those who want to read the full:
“Pedigree Theories and Selection Techniques The “X Factor” or Large Heart Gene – Thumbs Down” on her website pedigreegoddess dot com
As I explained previously, if the “X Factor or Large Heart Gene” had any credibility Keeneland, Fasig-Tipton et al, the stud farms would be using it as a promotional tool to sell horses. Leave generics to the scientists.
Frankly, people can believe whatever they wish as far as I’m concerned. If the reality hurts your sensibilities go argue with Anne, she’s the expert.
“Frankly, people can believe whatever they wish as far as I’m concerned”.
Your ability to state the obvious is amazing. 🙂
Your facilities are clearly exposed by what you post. Enjoy the day.
If that’s your best comeback, then your facilities are clearly exposed. Very weak to say the least.
Edit: just saw a photo of Max Player on my Twitter feed with a notation that he is alert and comfortable and he is undergoing diagnostics and will be transfered to a vet hospital for additional evaluation.
Good Sunday Morning all.
First of all, Congratulations to all the winners and their connections yesterday and to those of you who had winning bets.
Just random thoughts to more or less tie up the week in a neat little package with a pretty bow.
Race results – Read late last evening that Max Player was eased in his race and vanned off the track. Steve A said that they thought MP stepped in a hole and clipped his heel. Checked around this morning and did not find any additional information. Hope it was nothing serious.
Rebel Stakes – absolutely thrilled for Keith D, Don’t Tell My Wife and Jane Lyon, Summerwind Farm. I have always had a soft place in my heart for an underdog. I had hoped Red Route One would do well and he did not disappoint. Did think going into this race that Reincarnate would win…just goes to show “That on any given Saturday”.
Saudi Cup – once again Japan has demonstrated their ever increasing dominance in International racing. They are taking home 57% of the total purse offerings. My respect for the Japanese racing program has taken another leap. State of the art training tracks and race tracks, using the latest in technology, careful and selective breeding and breeding for soundness and stamina is paying off for them. Many comments among my horse racing friends is that the United States could learn a lot from Japan. If you have never visited the JRC website, I would encourage you to do so.
Going somewhat out on limb here and make prediction that in the next 5 years, maybe less, Japan will rise to the top and dominate both turf and dirt track racing.
Country Grammer – just gotta have a lot of respect for this honest, steady horse. Think he is nicely set up for the Dubai World Cup.
Taiba – lots of opinions out there as to why he did so poorly in the race. Guess most of you have heard that he is being shipped back to US and is bypassing the DWC. My personal opinion is that Taiba left his race at the training gate. He is somewhat inconsistent, alternating between brilliant and unremarkable. Could be a mental maturity issue?
It did not go unnoticed by me that all 5 of the top finishers in the Saudi Cup go back to Secretariat. He may not have reproduced himself but he was one heck of a broodmare sire and here we are, the 50th anniversary of his Triple Crown and his influence on both dirt and turf is still being felt not only here but around the world.
Steve’s list on Monday. My prediction is that there will be another reshuffling of the rankings; couple of horses will come off, at least one will be added and one will be moved up.
LHG/X-Factor – there was a lively conversation this week on this topic.
My personal opinion is that the theory has not been definitively proven or disproven.
There was a study released in December 2022 that was conducted by a team of experts, geneticists and scientists from several countries. The study was conducted off the discovery of the speed gene,
The team went to Mongolia and collected mitochondrial DNA samples from the Mongolian horses.
I can hear the eye rolls (LOL) and the thoughts by some that what does this have to do with Thoroughbreds and racing. Ezy Pzy, the Monguls were the first to domesticate the horse and the first “galloping” horse races.
In a nut shell, the results of the study of the DNA, was the identification of 7 core genes that are the drivers for successful race horses.
This is the link to the study that you can read and decide for yourselves the importance of this study:
wwwdotnaturedotcomforwardslasharticles
Couple of outakes of this study by me:
1) Mariana Hahn was onto something about a LHG/ X-Factor. While the study does not specifically single out such a gene, it does lend itself to identification of core genes that dictate a large heart.
2) I can foresee that one day (not in my lifetime) that breeding stallions and broodmares and their progeny will have a genetic fingerprint as a part of their pedigree so that breeders and buyers can make better informed decisions.
Being the curious person that I am, I traced Secretariat’s pedigree back to Eclipse in his sire and dam line.
I did these because of the 2 theories on a LHG; one being that it was a mutant recessive gene that was passed on by Eclipse and two that the LHG was a double copy gene defined as a gene that is inherited from both the sire and the dam.
It is mostly true that the 3 foundation sires for the Thoroughbred are the Darley, Godolphin and the Byerley Turk. However, there were other Arabians and Turk stallions and mares that were imported.
The Byerley Turk was thought to be an Arabian based on his appearance and speed. That was never proven. If you look up his pedigree, you will see that none exists. In that he was called a “Turk” lends itself to his origins being a Mongolian horse.
Eclipse’s great great grandsire was the Darley and his great damsire was the Godolphin. There are Turks in both his sire and dam line, not specifically named as the Byerley.
In taking Somethingroyal all the way back, I saw that her dam all those generations back was Turk breeding.
It’s my opinion that whether there is a LHG or if the MLK-2 gene identified by the above study is responsible for the development of the heart muscle, the double copy theory is brought into play.
The other discussion this week was about the unsoundness that has resulted from multiple inbreeding in the Native Dancer, Mr Prospector, Unbridled and Unbridled’s Song lines. We may be able to draw perspective from the identication of the skeletal gene in the above study.
Taking this just a couple more steps. This study would indicate that Secretariat, Phar Lap and Eclipse inherited all 7 of these genes. This study could be expanded to include the detrimental effect that inbreeding back to these lines are indeed responsible for skeletal failures in the modern American Thoroughbred.
I want to make it perfectly clear to anyone who reads this that I am in any way saying that the LHG gene exists or that extensive line in breeding is responsible for catastrophic
life or career ending fractures. What I am saying is that there needs to be more scientific based studies on mitochondrial DNA.
Thank you to everyone who read took time to readv what I know is a lengthy, seemingly never ending post.
Excellent points about Japanese breeding and racing, Lynda. It took me a couple of readings to grok all the information about large heart factor and the seven core genes and how they relate to modern thoroughbreds.
My question: do we know whether certain horses thought to be sources of unsoundness lack any of these seven genes, or is that what you mean by the need for further study?
And I may be reading into what you wrote, but could there be a relationship between horses that both have the large heart gene from sire lines known for unsoundness AND catastrophic breakdowns? In other words, the large heart enables a horse to run beyond the capacity of its fragile legs to sustain it. I’d love to know what you think, and if there’s any research on this idea.
Hi Ms B.
You are correct, more study is needed.
Interesting thought you have about the LHG and horses running faster than their structural skeletons can support!
I think that is entirely possible and an excellent study.
When I read this report I found it to be very informative and fascinating. It opens so many doors to other studies.
Hi Lynda
Thank you for providing your thoughts on the X-Factor large heart gene, and skeletal issues. I enjoyed every word of your post.
You stated, “my personal opinion is that the theory has not been definitively proven or disproven”. I completely agree with that.
With respect to the “double copy theory” and which mares carry that double copy LHG, enabling said mares to not only pass the gene to her sons, but to her daughters as well. In theory, the LHG follows a zig/zag pattern, stallion to daughter, daughter to son, son to daughter, and so on. However, as I mentioned, in the case of a double copy mare, she can pass the gene to son and daughter.
That’s what got my attention regarding Confidence Game’s pedigree. His 2nd dam, Vertigeux was more than likely a double copy mare, and passed the gene to her daughter, Eblouissante, who in turn passed to her son Confidence Game. As I pointed out in an earlier post, Vertigeux is the dam of Zenyatta. Vertigeux follows the zig/zag pattern back through her sire, Kris S, his dam Sharp Queen and to her sire Princequillo, one of the four original carriers of the large heart gene.
As you probably gathered by now, I’m a pedigree freak. From my perspective, a horse’s potential to succeed on the track, starts and ends with his or her pedigree make up.
It’s all in the genes, as they say.
Thanks again, Lynda, keep your posts coming, lengthy or otherwise. 🙂
Thank you Bill.
I too am a pedigree freak, LOL, in case you haven’t noticed.
Right there with you, pedigree is my first stop.and I go back further than the first 5 generations.
Do not agree with the school of thought shared by many today that influence on a horse decreases with each
As my handle implies, I too am a pedigree freak — but my fascination is with female lines and families rather than male lines, possibly because there are so many more variables given the way certain sire lines dominate. Would much prefer to see horses inbred to superior females than males. Possibly inbreeding to superior sires is what’s led to this trend toward unsoundness, especially since it’s hard NOT to bred a mare and a stallion without producing a foal with two crosses of Northern Dancer or Mr. Prospector — or more.
Ms B, cannot get my hands on it at the moment but there was a study about the correlation between a Blue Hen broodmare and and her successful progeny on the track.If I find it, I will post the link.
Mr Chenery assembled one of the best broodmare bands in the country in the 40’s and 50’s and was key to his success on the racetrack.
You are spot on, it is difficult to find a stallion that is not deeply inbred to the lines you mention.
Agree too that inbreeding is a factor in unsoundness. We just need solid scientific research thru DNA testing to prove it.
Princequillo isn’t one of the four ORIGINAL carriers of the large heart gene– those were the royal mares from the late 17th and 18th centuries, since scholars can’t trace the pedigrees back any further! For that matter, the large hearts observed in the necropsies of Eclipse and Phar Lap could well be caused by a change in how a gene regulating heart size/ function is expressed (epigene), not a gene. And all the talk about the value of a large-hearted stallion like Secretariat is unfortunate, for the theory postulates that stallions can only pass the gene on to daughters. Thus War Admiral’s large heart came not from his great sire Man o’ War, but his dam and her sire Sweep, who would’ve inherited from Domino (actually a sprinter, unlike Man o’ War). Secretariat didn’t start a long-lasting sire-line, but his daughter’s sons did. It’s a shame Secretariat’s daughters didn’t get sounder stallions. Storm Bird had problems, and so did Seattle Slew, even if Seattle Slew was a great horse. Given that we had other viable lines around at the time which now have become less common– including Relaunch (a Man o’ War descendant whose damsire traced to La Troienne, suiting him for Weekend Surprise’s Buckpasser), and Domino-line Broad Brush, likely another large heart carrier from his damsire Hoist the Flag and War Admiral (Zenyatta has Hoist the Flag in addition to Princequillo), and several excellent Ribot-line stallions from excellent female families, it’s a real shame.
Thank you, Sarah, for this excellent, coherent, accessible understanding of large hearts in thoroughbreds and from where they originated.
Thank you, Sarah Cole Rowe.
I’ve read your post a couple of times, and correct me if I’m wrong, but from what you stated, you give the large heart gene concept at least some degree of validity. I would appreaciate any thoughts you might have on any of the current contenders on this year’s Derby trail that might have inherited the large heart gene.
If you choose not to, that’s fine.
At any rate, I enjoyed reading your post which brought some degree of clarity to this very controversial subject.
Thanks again Sarah, I hope to see more of your posts in the future.
Lynda I remember—decades ago–reading about how horses get their air–which is related some, to the heart—certain horses get more air, than others, and certain horses seemingly “figure it out”—John Henry comes to mind….if you looked over a big field of grade one horses, you wouldn’t look twice at John Henry, but he had a distinctive head positioning, andI read a theory about it, how a horse’s head is positioned, I noticed it in Best Pal, who had a similar low-slung way about his stride, and I look for that when I try to figure if a horse could get the tenth furlong, A P Indy had it—I don’t know if it’s natural….or if the horse is just intelligent….or if it’s all hogwash, but in Horse Racing it’s just another of thousands of angles us handicappers (detectives!) like to banter about…..
MatthewW, I honestly do not have an answer. I do however agree that AP Indy, Arrogate and Arrogate all had a low neck set when racing. It is one of the things that I look for when a horse is working on the track.
One of the 7 essential genes identified in the study is neurological which includes intelligence.
It stands to reason I think that intelligence could and would play a role in a horse’s adaptability.
If you come across any studies, please share with us. I would be very interested in reading it.
Great post! Certainly a lot to consider. Always wondered why Breeders didn’t save semen from the great ones, DNA would prove it’s origin. I’ve read the above mentioned articles and they are fascinating. We still have a lot to learn. Thanks again, I really enjoyed your posts.
Thank you Kenny.
I too would think that saving sperm for genetic testing would have been beneficial.
Steve I like Skinner a lot— I wonder what happened, in the American Pharoah, did he bleed? As I have said– he had an 18 day gap, in his January works, before coming from 6th, over a track favoring speed—he looked good, and he has grown some— big backside! By Curlin, he may be getting good at the right time, coming back in 3 weeks, off of a layoff, is the question…
Reincarnate impressed me….barn change and ship—ate mud and got pinched at the wrong time, could have packed it it but he was charging—
As of 2-25-23, the following are my top 15 contenders on the Derby trail.
1) Hit Show
2) Forte
3) Tapit Trice
4) Red Route One
5) Practical Move
6) Blazing Sevens
7) Confidence Game
8) Angel of Empire
9) Reincarnate
10) Instant Coffee
11) Cave Rock
12) Two Eagles River
13) Litigate
14) Lugan Knight
15) Sun Thunder
I dropped Arabian Knight (too many questions moving forward) and Giant Mischief (poor showing in the Rebel, empty late)
I see you are still very high on Hit Show… my top 15 are:
1. Forte – Northern Dancer
2. Tapit Trice – Seattle Slew/A.P. Indy
3. Instant Coffee- Northern Dancer
4. Practical Move – Northern Dancer
5. Hit Show- Mr. Prospector
6. Blazing Sevens – Mr. Prospector
7. Reincarnate- Mr. Prospector
8. Angel of Empire – Mr. Prospector
9. Red Route One – Mr. Prospector
10. Kingsbarns – Caro
11. General Jim – Northern Dancer
12. Verifying – Northern Dancer
13. Mage – Mr. Prospector
14. Rocket Can-Northern Dancer
15. Litigate-Hail to Reason
I am elevating Reincarnate while dropping Verifying (his pp 1 was detrimental in the Rebel though he might rebound).
Reincarnate was the unluckiest runner in the Rebel. Never in contention the first 5 furlongs and when finally found his stride he lost all momentum in the stretch after being smashed by Bourbon Bash…I just hope the massive son of Good Magic is OK…Anyway, looking forward to Steve’s assessment…
Slip Mahoney, Mage, Hejazi and National Treasure could enter my top 15 with convincing performances on March 4…
Yes indeed, Hit Show has been at the top of my Derby contender list since early January.
BTW, I see Confidence Game didn’t make your top 15 list, other than that, we’re relatively close with our respective lists.
Hopefully, we can touch bases later on this week to exchange thoughts on the FOY, Gotham and San Felipe prep races.
I liked the fact that you mentioned the sire line, on your top 15 contenders.
Take care Nelson.
Thanks for your reply Bill.
I was precisely deliberating between Litigate and Confidence Game for the 15th spot… if it means anything at all…
Yes… I know that Keith Desormeaux is famous for buying and developing inexpensive horses to reach Stakes levels. You may remember a horse named Swipe who was bought by a meager $5,000. The crafty trainer took the son of Birdstone to 4 seconds in Grade I and Grade II Stakes behind champion Nyquist…
Other reaffirming examples of his peculiar efficacy are Sueno, Texas Red ($17,000), Ive Struck a Nerve, Call Me Midnight and My Boy Jack 5th in the Derby was bought for $20,000. The brilliant mud runner even Exaggerator with this tag price of $110,000 might be considered a real bargain since he is by the mighty Curlin.
Anyway, until I understand why a son, maternal grandson of Elite Sires and related to Zenyatta brought only $25K at Keeneland September Yearling sale… Someone must have first hand information on that inconsistency…
I just feel like Litigate is being overlooked because his Sam Davis win is considered subpar… but to me the son of Blame ran better than it looks on paper and that he got a ton of upside under him.
Their next races will clarify their real potential…
For those keeping tabs on figures, Confidence Game got a raw Beyer of 94.
Regarding Confidence Games’s speed figures, he earned an impressive Equibase Speed Figure of 104.
Reincarnate was the best horse in the Rebel. He is still live as a Derby threat IMHO
He needs points. Probably back to Cal. and the Santa Anita Derby…
Congratulations to Bill Dawson, who correctly picked the winner in a salty, hard to figure Rebel Stakes. As for clearing up the Kentucky Derby picture, it’s more of the same except we now know:
• Include Red Route One in all exotics. Heck, he may even win the Derby, given that he likes to run into a hot pace.
• Reincarnate is a good horse. (And his spots are simply adorable.)
• The first three horses can perform well on a sloppy track. The rest, not so much.
And congrats to Confidence Game and his connections. Let’s hope it was a breakout performance and that he is not a one-hit wonder.
Thanks Ms Blacktype
I certainly agree that Red Route One should be included in all exotics.
The 9 furlong Arkansas Derby should be right up his alley.
Reincarnate was very unlucky having to run against his running style… perhaps he did not get hold of the track who knows but he is not a closer for sure…!
I believe he would be elevated to the seventh (7) spot in the reanking.
Bill Dawson…you had CONFIDENCE in the GAME. Kudos to you!
Thanks Simon
Red Route One, made a very impressive close from 11th to 2nd. Had the race been at 9 furlongs, I believe he would have won it.
Hat off to Steve for sticking with RRO.
Steve, all the best and good luck with selecting a decent dozen this week. Lol. I expected an upset in the Rebel Stakes and that was about all she wrote. The Fountain of Youth Stakes and Tampa Bay Derby can’t come too soon to see if the top are the top two. Can’t wait for your latest appraisal.
Bill:
Awesome pick on Confidence Game!
Thanks biggy312
Confidence Game’s pedigree reflects speed, class and stamina. His dam, Eblouissante, is a half sister to the great Zenyatta who, more than likely, carried the X-Factor large heart gene. There’s a strong possibility that Eblouissante has the large heart gene as well.
Just don’t tell Davids, he shoots down the large heart gene theory at every opportunity. 🙂
I missed my superfecta p/w wager, because I keyed two longshots on top. Lesson learned; key one longshot on one ticket, and key the other longshot on another ticket.
Hats off to Steve, his Red Rocket Run, closed like a freight train (from 11th to 2nd). Had the Rebel been a 9 furlong race, I belive RRR would have won it.
Good luck biggy312.
Edit to state, Red Route One
Nice pick, Bill!….Reincarnate got an unlucky pinch–had plenty in the tank—Red Rock ran lights out!…good race! Bargain Baby got the money!..
No excuses for Event Detail…good time….
Thanks Matthew W
It appears Confidence Game has made the Derby starting gate (if he stays healthy).
He’s bred to run all day.
Bill Dawson, As this year is the 50th Anniversary of Secretariat’s Triple Crown, we are going to see unusual events happening. And they are not occurring due to happenstance.
Dreaming of Snow, whose sire is Jess’s Dream has beaten the top two three year old fillies in the country: Wonder Wheel and Julia Shining. She won the Sun Coast Stakes on a track very similar to Churchill Downs. Jess’s Dream is out of Rachel Alexandra and by Curlin.
And Zenyatta’s nephew, Confidence Game won the Rebel Stakes getting enough points to enter the Kentucky Derby. Confidence Game is out of Eblouissante (Zenny’s half sister) by Candy Ride. Ebby was purchased by Jane Lyon at Tattersalls.
Ms. Penny Chenery and Mr. Jess Jackson are having a good laugh up in heaven along with Ebby’s original owner.
Hi Terri Z
It’s Monday, the 27th, and I’m just now reading your post which I missed yesterday. You make excellent points regarding Confidence Game’s family. It’s a mystery to me why he sold at the bargin basement price of 25K.
Currently, Confidence Game is setting at the top of the Kentucky Derby points leader board. Go figure. 🙂
I hope to see more of your posts in the near future, Terri Z.
I’m heading out to GP for the Sprint Stakes. I would love to see Candy Man Rocket win. He’s undefeated at GP. But this could be a torrid pace and Scaramouche or Cajun’s Magic could benefit. Boy is it hot here! Like summertime. I can’t wait to hear track announcer Pete Aiello call the name Scaramouche during the race. Ha ha!
Roberta, you should be saving yourself for the next weekend. Lol. Good luck.
Ha ha! I was there for only an hour. Entries are out for Saturday. EIGHT stakes races. I need to get in shape.
Roberta, it’s a great card at Gulfstream Park for the Fountain of Youth Stakes day. The return of Forte is highly anticipated, the Herecomesthebride Stakes is competitive but Charge It’s return in the Gulfstream Park Mile is the race I’m really looking forward to. Have a wonderful day.
Thank you, Davids. Yes, I am also looking forward to the GP Mile race. You probably know that this race was back in the day the Gulfstream Park Handicap…at 10 furlongs! Charge It is the absolute class of the field and one mile is his best distance by far. It’s a good field of horses with GP experience. My heart is with Shug’s General Jim in the FOY. Forte? I’ve seen too many colts ship in as heavy favorites and lose. And Mott’s Rocket Can – does he get more consideration after Confidence Game’s win (RC was a close second to CG at Churchill)?
I’m confused as ever after the results of the Risen Star. How about Bill picking Confidence Game. Wow! Too bad he didn’t get his superfecta. Red Route One made an exceptional run, but that type is always at a disadvantage to win. BTW, he’s a full brother to Gun Runner’s first ever winner, Red Run. I’m so disappointed with Giant Mischief. For all the runners, we really don’t know whether the track condition helped or hurt. Can’t give up yet on Reincarnate and Verifying.
Yes Roberta, I remember the old structure of the races at Gulfstream prior to the inception of the Pegasus World Cup all too well. Best of luck to you with Shug’s General Jim in the Fountain of Youth, you always want Shug to do well. I’m following the Army Mule colts to see how they pan out over distance so an outside hope for Shadow Dragon will bring a smile.
You’re write about Forte, a loss wouldn’t surprise me. It’ll be interesting to see what he’s like prior to the race. Temperament and fitness wise. You would expect Mott’s colts to improve substantially from last time so Forte won’t find it easy going.
I’ve forgotten the Rebel Stakes already, with the conditions you thought an upset was a real possibility. Are the colts in Louisiana and Arkansas a notch below those in Florida? Very possibly. All the prep races this weekend should start to sort out the more likely, than the less likely, to make an impact come May. You want them all to do well. Lol. I am really missing not being there. Have a great day ang the best of luck.
The Rebel, not the Risen Star.
Today, 2-25, Hit Show breezed 4F, in 49.00, (16/90), at the Fair Grounds. This was Hit Show’s first work since winning the Withers on 2-11. Everything looks good as he moves forward to the Wood Stakes, on April 8th.
Hit Show checks a lot of boxes. As it stands now, he continues to be my top contender on the Derby trail.
And Forte tuned up with a breezing of 5 furlongs in 1.01:99 lookin ready for reassuring 3-year-old debut in the Fountain of Youth…
Also at Palm Beach Downs Tapit Trice went 4 furlongs in 49:44.
Perhaps the best workouts for the FOY are the ones of Blazing Sevens who logged 1.01:60 for five furlongs and Rocket Can and Shadow Dragon who worked 5 furlong together in 1.01:60 also at Payson Park
Thoughts regarding today…..looks like Taiba either steadied down the backstretch or clipped the heels of another horse….no excuses…or perhaps didn’t like the starting gate…that and $5 will get you a double tall latte.
Wow….have the horses from Japan really, really exploded on the scene or what? Can this be traceable to Sunday Silence at stud that started years ago?
Kudos to Country Grammer to have aged to be as honest horse as you can race….the last two years…second in the Grade 2 Californian, won the Grade 1 Hollypark Gold Cup, second in the Grade 2 San Diego Handicap, second in the Grade 1 Pacific Classic, second in the Grade 1 Awesome Again, won the Grade 2 San Antonio and now second in the Saudi Cup….this horse is a battle tested warrior.
Havnemeltdown just wasn’t good enough to win but enough for second.
Still getting the grasp of what happened in the Rebel other than the slop really might have affected some horses from their truely race potential….translation….threw this race out (other than the points and purse money of course) with regards to preps to the KD Derby.
Fast forward to today….Forte had another workout but slower than last week….101.99 (5/9) and Tapit Trice worked 49.44 (5/28) which is a little better that this horse had a week earlier.
Panthalassa the top Japanese Turf runner wins wire to wire the Saudi Cup over a furiously closing Country Grammar. Heartbreaking defeat for Dettori who needed just 20 more yards … !
The time for the 1800 meters was 1:50.80 … Taiba found the track to be very tiring for him finishing mid field.
Good lesson for owners of first-rate turf runners to try dirt elsewhere…!
Nelson, Country Grammer needed that extra furlong 9f is just a smidgen too short. Why isn’t the Saudi Cup 10f? Taiba flopped but his inexperience was probably the culprit, reports of his over eagerness were either going to be a positive or a negative, obviously the latter. Are you actually there?
Commissioner King wins the Saudi Derby for Commissioner which was a thrill and a boost for the sire.
You’re correct to ask that question, Davids. The richest distance race in the world should be at least 10f.
Some never believe BB horses can lose.
Aarrgghh! I had Country Grammer, not because I loved him in the race but more because I DIDN’T like Taiba. Yoshito Yahagi of 2021 Breeders Cup fame scores with a first-timer on dirt.
Yes, Simon, it’s tough. Country Grammer is your old style campaigner that needs 10f or longer. Baffert thought he had a chance of beating Flightline with Country Grammer at 12f. Ambitious, but you take his point. Nonetheless, Country Grammer must be sitting on perfect for the Dubai World Cup.
I was the same with Taiba and the draw sealed it for me.
Frankie Dettori and Elite Power have just won the $1.5M Riyadh Dirt Sprint Stakes closing like a rocket from 6th place.
The American Champion Sprinter is close to be the world champion sprinter if he wins in Dubai next time…
American speed reasserting its supremacy with Gunite in second over the Japanese Remark… Dancing Prince (JPN) last year’s winner finished out of the board.
the time was 1:11.01 in a very tiring track.
Frankie Dettori is riding the best he’s ever been.
Crown Pride or JLB for home run.
I think it’s insane that Event Detail is 30-1 ml in the Rebel. Should be 15-1 tops.
If speed isn’t holding up Saturday, watch out.
I agree that it’s too high. But considering that the ML is the track handicapper’s prediction of post-time odds, my guess is that he’ll be around 20-1. Factors include just one dirt race, a mediocre sprint debut; two good subsequent races, both on AW; the good races were at Turfway Park, a lower-level track; hasn’t raced against winners; trainer and jockey aren’t household names. On the bright side, his dirt race at CD wasn’t horrible. The winner and 2nd-place finisher came back to win.
All valid points Simon. I guess the question is do you wait to see what he can do at that next level or do you take a shot while the odds are still there.
I would never EVER try to talk someone off a longshot.
He’s very intriguing because he has a turn of foot and is improving.
He’s a big, beautiful January foal, in a race full of expensive yearling purchases–He’s a $600K WEANLING purchase..
Bingo.
Yes, yes, and yes.
As I mentioned a couple of days ago, I’ll swing for the fences in the Rebel stakes.
I’ll key Event Detail and Confidence Game on top, with Verifying, Red Route One, Gun Pilot, Giant Mischief and Reincarnate underneath in the 3rd and 4th slots in my superfecta p/w wager.
That is; 7,9/ 7,9/ 1,3,4,5,6/ 1,3,4,5,6
Cost: $40.00
Nothing ventured, nothing gained.
Safe trips to all.
Go Bill!! Love it.
I will play Event Detail across the board. Plus exactas and tris with the top choices.
I put up a big ( for me) $20wps wager …I rarely bet that kind of money, in a eastern race, but I have the moolah—I’ve (so far) had a very good Santa Anita meet!..
Graded stakes experience among Rebel entrants:
> Verifying – 2nd by 3 in the Champagne, 6th by 12 in the BCJ
> Powerful – 11th by 30 in the Breeders Futurity
> Red Route One – 3rd by 7 in the Breeders Futurity, 5th by 13 in the Street Sense, 4th by 1.5 in the Ky JC, 2nd by 5.5 in the Southwest
> Reincarnate – 1st by a neck in the Sham
> Confidence Game – 5th by 10 in the Iroquois, 3rd by 7 3/4 in the Lecomte
> Bourbon Bash – 5th by 24 in the Hopeful, 12th by 30 in the Breeders Futurity
> Frosted Departure – 10th by 23 in the Breeders Futurity, 7th by 28 in the Street Sense, 3rd by 7.5 in the Southwest
Penultimate derby preps should be better than this. The Fountain of Youth will likely be better, with 4 graded stakes winners listed as probable.
Hejazi and Carmel Road were both entered into the Gotham as well as the San Felipe today for two races scheduled for March 4.
I think you mean nominated, and I’m wondering if Bob will keep National Treasure, I see McCarthy has nominated Genius Jimmy, who was very impressive winning a 9 furlong turf (maiden) race on Feb 4th, and Shirreffs nominated Skinner, who won his comeback race on Feb 12th….
The slightly amusing feature is that Hejazi and Carmel Road are nominated in the Gotham Stakes under Tim Yakteen while in the San Felipe they are nominated under Bob Baffert.
Yes….nominated….thanks.
Steve – your thoughts on a Brad Cox winner (#2000 for Cox) – Bushers Bay….Thank you
Are you sure you have the right spelling?
My fault Steve – Bishop’s Bay
Re: Fountain of Youth Stakes, Mar. 4th, GP
Forte will take on 10 colts, listed as “probable” in the FOY. The entries are as follows;
Forte
Rocket Can
Blazing Sevens
General Jim
Cyclone Mischief
Legacy Isle
IL Miracolo
Shadow Dragon
Great Navigator
Dangerous Ride
Mage
Blazing Sevens appears to be Forte’s main competition, IMO.
General Jim is also one to consider after a sharp win of the 7-furlong of the Swale…
Mage is a very good horse … he will likely be an overlay in the FOY.
Great Navigator is one of the only three horses who have defeated Forte (in the Sanford Stakes)… but 7-month layoff is too much to overcome facing that field.
Cyclone Mischief poses the recurrent question in every Derby trail… Is he going to rebound?
Perhaps Forte will have his final tune up tomorrow … he looks ready for a good 3-year-old debut…!
Mage is a very interesting long-shot. His dam, PUCA, finished 2nd in the G2 Gazelle at 9f to Condo Commando, the 3-5 favorite who was lose on the lead.
Then there Mage’s trainer, Gustavo Delgado, who has a knack for moving his MSW runners directly into stakes races:
CARACARO broke his maiden at Gulfstream in his 2nd start and followed it up with 2nd-place finishes in the Peter Pan and the Travers — losing to Country Grammer and Tiz the Law, respectively.
BODEXPRESS was still a maiden when he finished 2nd to Maximum Security in the Florida Derby.
PAOLA QUEEN broke her maiden at Gulfstream in her 4th start and then finished 2nd in the G2 Gulfstream Park Oaks.
MAJESTO broke his maiden in his 5th start and followed it up with a 2nd-place finish to Nyquist in the Florida Derby.
Delgado has also been successful with MSW winners moving into nongraded stakes and winning.
You are right about Gustavo Delgado’s ability to successfully move talented young horses rather quickly to Stakes company.
I had referred to Bodexpress and Majesto in a post after Mage debut and to illustrate Good Magic’s great first crop…!
The crafty trainer could be replicating those successes in Mage’s career…
His nephew Jorge Delgado is an up and coming trainer in Florida.
I had also posted under Steve forums about Gustavo Delgado’s great achievements in Venezuela and his induction to the Caribbean and Central American Hall of Fame …
Yes, he was numero uno.
It’ll be interesting if Bill Mott actually enters both his colts, you would expect improvement from both the way Mott ‘builds’ his horses. Army Mule is doing exceptionally well all things considered, Hill ‘n’ Dale always had a lot of confidence that he would succeed. I’m intrigued to see how far Shadow Dragon can extend his abilities.
With regards to the Breeders’ Cup going to Del Mar in 2024 making it the third time in eight years at the seaside oval and not going to Churchill Downs (second with nine BCs but only one in the last 13 years) some might believe this was maybe a statement to CD Inc. with regard to their vindictive punitive overreach of the Baffert situation.
Just thinking…..
Enough!
Congratulations to Luis Saez who won the Saudi Cup Jockey Challenge. Yuga Kuwada of Japan won second and Joanna Moore of England placed third.
Thanks for the good news, Lynda. My man, Luis, is in peak riding form in recent weeks.
Steve, Taiba might be sitting on a big race in the Saudi Cup.
I first saw the photo of him rearing straight up yesterday, almost flipping over backwards as they were leading him to the gate for training. I do not know who was on him. This morning I saw the video. He was way up on his toes, frothing heavily in the mouth, tossing his head etc and he was fighting his handlers every step of the way. They finally got him settled enough to walk in the gate to stand for a few seconds then backed out. Mike might have his full getting him to settle on Saturday.
That gate is very narrow.
March 2, race 8 at FG – A full brother to multiple graded-stakes filly Wicked Halo is entered for the 6f MSW. Asmussen trains the first-time starter named Wicked Again. Several other promising colts are entered. Too late for the Derby, of course. But down the road …
Expecting a good race from both Verifying and Reincarnate in the Rebel. My money will be on Reincarnate.
Update for the March 4th Gotham at Aqueduct….looks like Carmel Road (Yakteem/Baffert) will be going to NY to run in the Gotham….did have a 59.0 workout on February 20th but another SF Racing comglomerate horse (Fort Warren) might make the trip to NY as well.
Over the past 30 years, 16 Kentucky Derby winners were produced from the Mr. Prospector sire line, which works out to 53%.
Over that same period, only 6 were produced from the Northern Dancer sire line, or 20%. Together, Mr. Prospector and Northern Dancer have produced 73% of the past 30 Derby winners.
This year, there are 20 colts that were produced from the Mr. Prospector sire line that made some degree of noice on the Derby trail. There are 11 colts produced from the Northern Dancer sire line that made some noice as well.
From my perspective, a colt from the Mr. Prospector sire line, has an advantage over colts from various sire lines, including the Northern Dancer line.
A this stage of the Derby trail, I consider the following colts (from the Mr. P line) as the top contenders moving forward.
Hit Show, Blazing Sevens, Cave Rock, Confidence Game, Two Eagles River, Reincarnate, Gun Pilot, Faustin and National Treasurer.
From the Northern Dancer sire line, I like Forte, General Jim, Giant Mischief, Instant Coffee, Practical Move, Verifying and Rocket Can.
So there it is, take your pick from those two sire lines.
Good luck.
Hi, Bill. If 53% of Derby runners were produced by the Mr P sire line, it’s a wash. On the other hand, if 40% of Derby runners came from that line, you may have hit on a pretty good angle. I doubt, though, that either of us is inclined to do the pedigree research on ALL Derby runners of the past 30 years. Anyway, thanks for info. If I were to also consider current value along with the pedigree angle, I’d pick Gun Pilot and Giant Mischief (or Practical Move).
Thanks for the reply Simon.
It will be interesting to see how many colts from the Mr. Prospector sire line make the Derby starting gate this year.
Also, I’ve been meaning to ask you if you have an opinion of the X-Factor large heart gene concept.
There are many that consider it an unproven science, hog wash, ect. ect. Conversely, there are those that give credence to it’s concept, myself included.
The following colts on this year’s Derby trail “could” carry the large heart gene:
Forte
Blazing Sevens
Hit Show
Disarm
Echo Again
First Defender
Kingsbarns
Lugan Knight
Tapit Trice
Rocket Can
Two Eagles River
Thoughts?
Hi, Bill. I’ve read a bit about the LHG theory, and I’ve noted your comments about it for some time. I don’t have enough of a scientific background to evaluate the research and related opinions. I will say that it is a fascinating topic. That’s quite a list of possible carriers, though. Nevertheless, when you use the word “could,” I lean toward skepticism.
As a handicapper, what do the potential implications of the theory add to (a) what you already know of a horse’s past performance and (b) what you can predict about future performance? I can understand how those in the breeding industry may find the research helpful. But handicapping a specific race is a whole other ball game.
Anyway, keep it coming. And good luck tomorrow!
Simon, the reputable pedigree consultant debunked this pseudo-theory years ago you might want to read “Pedigree Theories and Selection Techniques” The “X Factor” or Large Heart Gene – Thumbs Down”
Website: pedigreegoddess dot com
Anne Peters
Just read it. Very interesting.
Simon, if you are interested in thoroughbred breeding this book – “Thoroughbred Breeding: Pedigree Theories and the Science of Genetics” by Tony Morris – is worth buying. Morris’ reputation is impeccable.
Thanks, Davids.
I would counter that with the following:
Dr. Frederic Fregin, an internationally renowned equine cardiologist, measured 400 horses with an ECG, and found the X-Factor to be 100% consistent, a rarity in scientific research. The heart scores on certain lines have been so consistent that we were able to determine which X chromsome was expressed and to identify the four largest “superhearts” found in today’s pedigrees. These four heart lines come from Princequillo, (the largest), and from War Admiral, Blue Larkspur and Mahmoud.
Bottom line, there are two sides to every story.
Have a nice evening Davids.
Bill, there’s a lot of hocus pocus theories going around in the thoroughbred industry. Has it ever occurred to you that when million dollar yearlings are being sold at auction around the world a reference to X factor heart size in a pedigree is never mentioned.? The proof of the pudding is in the eating.
Believe whatever you like, years ago I encouraged you to read “ Thoroughbred Breeding: Pedigree Theories and the Science of Genetics” by Tony Morris.
Davids, I would encourage to read Marianna Haun’s “Understanding the Power of the X-Factor, Patterns of the Heart Score and Performance”. In addition, I would encourage you to read, “Kentucky Derby Winners and the Large Heart pedigree”, by Mark Gingery.
Pedigree analyst, Laurie Ross, refers to horses that “may” carry the large heart gene when she feels it applies.
A high percentage of horses that “may” carry the large heart gene, have curly, leaf like ears, an outward physical trait associated with the gene, which she mentioned.
Dismiss the X-Factor as you wish, you’re not alone. However, for those of us who believe there just might be something to the cencept, let us believe what we want to believe, without being subjected to ridicule.
Thanks Davids
Edit to read, concept
Bill, I first heard about the large heart theory a long time before Haun’s book came out. Australian vets thought/believe in the correlation between Phar Lap’s large heart and his extraordinary performances then they started tracing back. The theory was first mentioned in the late 1950s by an Australian veterinarians later in the 1970s Australian vets Dr. J. D. Steel and Dr. A. Stewart published the results of a study which they believe proved the theory. Now the theory doesn’t hold much water but racing is full of Romanticism and that’s part of the fun – you never really know.
The American breeding is so inundated with Mr. Prospector sire line that it is just natural to see those high percentages of winners.
Gold Stage was the first son of Mr. Prospector participating in the Kentucky Derby. It was 1980 since then it took 10 years for the first Mr. Prospector paternal grandson to win the Derby (Unbridled), then came Thunder Gulch, Grindstone and Real Quite before a son of Mr. Prospector took the Roses (Fusaichi Pegasus) in 2000.
The Nearco/Nasrullah/Bold Ruler line that reigned supreme in the seventies is now represented by the Seattle Slew/A.P. Indy line. Nasrullah line is also alive through Uncle Mo.
The Raise a Native line that produced Affirmed, Genuine Risk, Alysheba, Strike the Gold and Monarchos is now carried out by the mighty Mr. Prospector.
The sire lines of Hail to Reason, Buckpasser and Ribot are practically absent from the Derby fields.
The future sires by Into Mischief and Tapit might be changing the dominance of the Mr. Prospector sire line in the near future…
Inbreeding to Mr. Prospector and Northern Dancer is another interesting stats …
Nelso
Nelson, is a link you might find interesting about the inbreeding of horses to certain bloodlines and disastrous breakdowns of Thoroughbreds.
You might recall that Mike deKock trained Mubtaahij for the Derby. His training methods were considered to be quite unconventional by Americans.
I had read this article some years ago and consider it to be one of the best on the topic because it is written in layman’s terms that are relatable and does not require a degree in genetics to understand.
https://mikedekockracing.com/2017/05/25/the-weakening-breed/
Another article you might be interested in is on “kissing spine” being genetic. Kissing spine is linked to fatal breakdowns in Thoroughbreds and other breeds and is becoming more prominent in the taller, heavy, horses like Justify and Arrogate (just as examples).
Inbreeding of Thoroughbreds has also been linked to fertility issues and smaller hearts that might be the source of sudden cardiac arrest deaths in horses.
And if you have time after reading all this, should you choose to do so, read the autopsy results on Arrogate and the discover of a core leison on his spinal cord.
https://thehorse.com/196838/researchers-confirm-kissing-spines-is-hereditary/
Steve, please allow this to post. Sometimes posts with web addresses will not. Thank you
I have nothing to do with the website and its policies. That is in the hands of Leonard Lusky.
It did post after moderation.
Thank you, Lynda, for posting this. I often see multiple catastrophic breakdowns in the produce of a single mare, especially in more recent years. It’s truly a tragedy.
Sadly, yes, it is a tragedy.
Thanks for the links Lynda. Very interesting articles.
Regarding some of the opinions there, I find no convincing evidence that (inbreeding to) Native Dancer is the origin of the alleged fragility of the modern Thoroughbreds.
I agree that the use of corticosteroids and pain killers, that mask the intrinsic damages of knees, ankles and fragile bones, is the main risk factor for fatal injuries.
The underlying reasons of catastrophic injuries are complex. Breeding unsound horses seems like a logical reason but how we measure the percentage of frail horses in any given crop? How many of those “flawed” horses suffer from catastrophic injuries? How are environmental factors influencing the rate of injuries? Are there stats about the location at which catastrophic fractures occurred during races and during training?
How many Sires are completely sound despite being retired with limited racing?
How many horses with irregular ankles, offset knees, pigeon toes and other conformation faults succumb to fatal injuries?
I got a list of 65 fatalities related to fractures, musculoskeletal and leg injuries while racing and training last year. I checked their pedigrees and found that only 30% of those unlucky horses showed inbreeding in his four first generations. I know there are a lot of initiatives by researchers and veterinarians to prevent and/or minimize risks of injuries including studying undertraining, overtraining, fatigue fractures, influence of horse age, etc.
You can check veterinarians(dot)com for exclusive data about causes of horse deaths by year in USA…there have been 34 fatalities as of February 22 this year; 14 due to injuries while racing.
Just as, a background I would like to share the stats from the Jockey Club’s Equine Injury Database.
The rate of fatal injuries in the US decreased from 2 in 2009 to 1.39 per thousand starts in 2021. This represents a decline of 30.5% in the risk of fatal injuries. 99.86% of races finished without a fatality in 2021.
For comparison purposes there was an overall incidence of 0.59 deaths/1000 starts in New South Wales and the Australian Capital Territory, Australia, for the 2009-2014 period.
Japan which is Hail to Reason territory shows a fatality rate of 1.13 per 1000 starts. Hong Kong was at 0.6 per 1,000 starts rate for the period 2014-2018. I can not seem to find the latest figures.
These benchmarks suggest that US racing could improve greatly its safety record by enhancing Tracking tools, boosting research, horse welfare and education. I believe we can learn the best practices policies from Hong Kong and Australia to minimize catastrophic injuries of racehorses in America.
Again, even conferences about catastrophic injuries in racehorses do not answer all pertinent questions…
Excellent post. The fatality rate decrease in the U.S. may not be where we’d like it to be, but at least it’s progress. Unless the decrease reflects a change in reporting.
The Rebel Stakes theoretically features 8 front-runners and speedy horses, 2 stalkers (Giant Mischief and Event Detail) and only one closer (Red Route One).
One should guesstimate some scenarios when handicapping the best Derby prep so far.
A possible setup is that the fastest horse beats all the other speedsters from the get go and that the closer and stalkers find some traffic trouble from the wall of horses faltering behind the leader. That horse with the most dominating and durable speed is then bound to win.
Another scenario entails the three fastest horses (Reincarnate, Verifying and Confidence Game) engaging in very punishing speed fight benefiting the tracker, mid-pack of closer runners. Knowing that 8 out of 11 runners have run their best races in front running fashion one could easily assume that the pace of the Rebel will be prohibitive.
Of course, is up to the jockey to come up with in-race adjustments to maximize the chances of his horse. A sharp jockey can rate with the fastest horse and reserve him to drive clear through the finish line.
It is no surprise Florent Geroux choosing Verifying over Giant Mischief. As Steve rightfully stated, the son of Justify got better Stakes credentials than those of the son of Into Mischief.
Another drawback I see in Giant Mischief is his propensity to break slow from the gate. If you review his first two races you will see that he was slow to start; in his debut he was edgy in the starting gate…
The trouble is that instead of getting better, Giant Mischief, just lost every chance at the start in his last race at Remington Park. Giant Mischief is the ideal stalker, but he needs to break clean to enhance his chances.
Reincarnate appears to be the fastest horse in the field. The son of Good Magic carries Baffert brand of the supreme speed that has captured the Rebel 8 times.
For many it is not that reassuring that Reincarnate last win was just a public Baffert workout but the time was the fastest mile at Santa Anita this year. Besides, Newgate and National Treasure are very good Stakes horses.
The four ranked horses by Steve in the Rebel Stakes look like the best horses and it is expected them confirming their standings.
My $16 Trifecta at this point looks like this:
1-Verifying, 6-Reincarnate /1-Verifying, 6-Reincarnate, 5-Giant Mischief/ 1-Verifying, 6-Reincarnate, 5-Giant Mischief, 2-Powerful, 3-Red Route One, 4-Gun Pilot
Safe and happy running to everybody this weekend…
Nelson, good work and good luck. It’s supposed to rain Friday and Saturday in Hot Springs. Does this change you thoughts at all? I’m expecting an upset but there’s too many to choose from. Verifying seems the logical choice.
Towhead for the Honeybee Stakes.
Thanks Davids…
The expected rain was something I factored in my bets. In fact I remembered how Justify and Good Magic were gliding on the quagmire of the 2018 Derby and assumed that their sons Verifying and Reincarnate inherited that trait…
Anyway, wet, muddy, sloppy or even sealed track would be handled just fine by frontrunners.
Best of luck, Nelson, it’ll be exciting no matter what the result is.
I like your analysis. The first half mile will be as fascinating as the final 1/16th. As for Giant Mischief, I don’t see a serious issue with his starts. For sure, his last race was disastrous. But horrible starts can happen to any horse, particularly one that has raced only twice previously. He seems to be mid-pack runner, and with Irad Ortiz in the saddle there’s a good chance that he’ll have a decent position out of the gate.
I am not inclined to agree that the Rebel is the best Derby prep so far. Reincarnate is the only graded stakes winner. Two others, long-shots Powerful and Bourbon Bash, won nongraded sprints. Good luck with the tri.
I completely agree that this version of the Rebel will have a ton of early pace. Did you see how Lucas is training Bourbon Bash coming into this? January 27th – 5F breeze in 59.40 – first of 36. February 13th – 4F Breeze in 47.60 – first of 71! February 21 – 5F in 48 flat!! Again first of 31.
If he gets totally free on the lead he could even have a live chance, but of all the longshots I like Event Detail. Even though we haven’t seen many by City of Light yet, early returns are good. His dosage is 1.0 and his center of distribution is 0.0. I can’t imagine him having distance limitations. Would love Steve’s input into his pedigree.
Bourbon Bash has worked fast throughout his short career with little to show for it.
My longshot prediction is Angel of Empire will win the Derby. I’m not a fan at all, but I see a horse with stamina and excellent conformation. His connections can make it happen. By that I mean, they’re not a detriment. He’s got a good story, non KY breds have been doing well in big races the last few years. First he has to win the next race, with a bit faster finish. Although he has the points, he’ll have another race for sure. Classic Empire his sire was a gifted horse with back problems who never reached his potential. I see too many being swayed by Baffert horses, whether transferred or hanging in for the other two legs of the triple crown, I just think a third party will win, not a predictable favorite. Forte is good, he’s been carrying the laurels in the absence of others, but his schedule this year may be too light to do it, he could possibly overcome it, just not sure how good he is. If several once trained by Baffert get in, most are front runners, a pace collapse awaits.
Steve take a look at Event Detail’s two Turfway (maiden) races….his Jan 1 race he made a sustained and big run, and was always trying—he looks to have natural stamina, because horses just don’t keep coming like that….but in his next start, where he breaks his maiden…he breaks much better, then into the clubhouse turn he is knocked in the side HARD—then chases a fast p;(:46 1/5), the field is very strung out down the backstretch, and he is fairly close, at that point, having been bumped hard…and he just keeps on coming again—horse appears to have mucho stamina, and has worked fast for a Lobo—cost $600K—there has been two bombshell payouts, in recent years, in the Rebel—possibly a third such payout Sat? First time mud, likely–but he is drawn wide, which just might be to his advantage…..”Ca-Ching”???…
I was very impressed with Two Eagles River, (mentioned in the KOTD segment), and the way he put away Disarm by 4 lengths in that $100K AOC race at Oaklawn Park. His sire line leads to Mr. Prospector (always a plus), and he “could” carry the X-Factor large heart gene, another plus if it’s there. I’m hopeful that his connections will point him to the Arkansas Derby, to see if they have a Derby contender on their hands.
The 2024 Breeders’ Cup has been awarded to Del Mar (November 1 & 2)….can’t wait to see workouts again in the heavy fog and a thick marine layer from the Pacific Ocean coming in before the first race is even run.
Being a long time resident of San Diego, I was delighted to hear the Breeders’ Cup will be returning to Del Mar in 2024.
The price of admission will be through the roof, certainly not for your average Joe Blow horse player. I just hope the world situation will be back to normal when November, 2024 rolls around. However, this begs the question, “what is normal” ? 🙂
That is a shame to hear. Track is not suitable for the Breeders Cup races Short stretch, sharp turns & eastern horses usually don’t do as well at Del Mar. Beautiful race track though. I spent a lot of summers there while growing up.
Just a little humor but maybe Flightline will come out of retirement just to run in the BCC. He appears to love the racing surface.
2017 Del Mar—Rushing Fall (east)….Mendellsohn (Europe)…Battle of Midway (Cali)…Gun Runner (east)…Good Magic (east)…Talismans (Europe)…World Approval (east)…Roy H (Cali)…Wuheida (Europe). Bar of Gold (east) Stormy Liberal (Cali)…Caledonia Road (east)…Forever Unbridled (east)…
2021 Del Mar—Knicks Go (east)…Yibir (east/Europe)…Aloha West (east)…Life Is Good (east)….Golden Pal (east)…Echo Zulu (east)…Twilight Gleaming (east)…Pizza Bianca (east)…Modern Games (Europe)…Loves Only You (Japan)…Space Blues (Europe)…Marche Loraine (Japan)…
I’m missing one from 2021, looks like eastern and Europe runners have cleaned house, at Del Mar in both Breeders Cups they have held.
UPDATE! The 2021 winner I missed was Ce Ce (Cali)…..bottom line why not just ALWAYS have it out west? Western based horses ship east three, four, five times a year, what’s wrong with having to ship east ONE TIME, they do fine, and it’s FAIR!
Meant to say what’s wrong with having to ship WEST one time… .weather is often a problem, last year 30 mph headwind…previous Keeneland Breeders Cup a quarter of the turf horses were sklipping all over, and then there’s the sloppy tracks at Mommouth, at Belmont, at Churchill….
Hey Matthew
Thanks for posting those BC Del Mar winners, and where they shipped in from.
I’m wondering if Deacon will respond. 🙂
Bill I attended the 2003 Breeders Cup, and it was very hot at Santa Anita….they said the Europeans would not like the heat, and they won every turf race!..
Oh he responded alright, I disagreed with his statement about eastern based horses not liking Del Mar, by pointing out how they have dominated in both Breeders Cups there, and he got offended…it’s Horse Racing, where everyone has an opinion or fifty—he made a statement and I disagreed, by making a general statement, with supporting details just like Mrs Lang taught me, in 4th grade (best teacher of my life!)..
To paraphrase the great haberdasher Harry Truman, if they can’t stand the heat they should get out of the kitchen.
I was thinking the same thing, but I was too lazy to prove the point.
I am aware of this Matthew. Of course there will be a few winners, I would venture to guess that I spent a whole lot more there then most. Through the late 1950’s, all of the 1960’s we would spend 5 weeks every summer there.
My assessments of the track conditions & its short stretch & sharp turns make it unsuitable for the Breeders Cup/
I found your post to be somewhat condescending. Besides I don’t get your point. All I said was eastern struggle at Del Mar. I never said they never won a race. Even Steve has said similar. Try & get off your high horse.
I just won’t post very often anymore.
I really didn’t appreciate your response.
Deacon, just want you to know that I always appreciate your perspective on things.
I understand your reluctance to post very much in the future as I am feeling the same.
Several times a week I write a post or a reply in Word and end up not posting it as I never know how it will be received and critiqued by some.
People like to “take down” someone’s comments by posting something directly contrary to it immediately below it. Then if you come back at them, they say you’re being over sensitive or over reacting.
Discopartner, my experience in the past few weeks has been as you state. I know how Deacon feels.
Deacon is a highly respected poster on Steve’s blog both on this site and previously on Blood Horse.
He posted on Blood Horse (Hangin With Haskin and the Derby Dozen) at least as far back to 2011 (when I started following Steve on Bloodhorse), maybe even longer.
The use of the idiom “If you cannot take the heat, then get out of the kitchen” is rude, disrespectful and condescending, at least where I come from.
LOL. You said you would ignore my posts. So anyway…where do you come from? Utopia?
Another posting technique is to try to discredit a response someone makes to someone else’s comment, by giving a “better” and different response directly above it. This just happened to me. These are adults doing this and some follow racing, but like to over rule or get their difference of opinion in if at all possible. There’s a couple of peopke like that on here. I confess to doing this too but usually in defense.
Deacon: Please continue to share your considerable knowledge of the sport with us. Like Lynda, I enjoy your posts very much.
Question: Should the Breeders’ Cup be held in the East, year after year, just to favor the eastern horses?
The BC powers that be, factor in various criterion when selecting the tracks where the Breeders’ Cup will be held.
The bottom line is money. Del Mar has been a windfall in that regard.
Two of every three in the east would be fair and enjoyable.
Friday blizzard warning in LA County first time since 1989..
Here in Melbourne, Victoria, we had snow falls in the Victorian Alps during early February 2023. February is the hottest month of the year. The weather is totally erratic these days.
Hello Steve – Great news concerning Disarm. It has been reported that Disarm has come out of his Allow. race in good health and will be pointed to the Apr 1 ARK Derby. I know how high you are on this colt Steve and I share your opinion. He is sure to be an overlay once again in the upcoming March KDFW5 pool where I will surely put some more bets in on him. Arabian Lion looks to be going to the SA Derby, so it’s likely that there will be no standouts on the ARK Derby which would give Disarm a good chance to pick up those Derby points and get in. Maybe Disarm will again crack your Dozen now Steve after the ARK Derby news.
Correction, I meant to say Arabian Knight Going to the SA Derby. At least I got the Arabian part right!
If Arabian Knight is going to wait until the SA Derby and he hasn’t been moved to another trainer by nowand he has had only a 3f blowout in 4 weeks it is only logical to think he will remain with Baffert and point for the Preakness. They have less than week to move him or no Derby. As of now I am seriously considering dropping him from the Rankings unless something dramatic happens.
As for Disarm, I’m not sure if got enough out of the one allowance race to finish first or second in the Arkansas Derby. He does need to show more acceleration, but if Asmussen runs him there he obviously feels he has a shot to be right there and thats good enough for me. I think hhe got a lot out of the race. If he can improve a few lengths I can see him finishing in the money and hopefully that will be enough to have ready for the Ky. Derby. He could be back in the Rankings sooner than you think. I .am waiting on this Thoro-Graph number
Also would Asmussen run against Red Route One if he runs big in the Rebel? Disarm has to finish 1,2 to definitely make the Derby field.
Hi again Steve – A third from Disarm in the ARK Derby would net him 30 points and he would be on the bubble, but with likely defections this could very well get him in. I agree that a 2nd would definitely get him in. Asmussen is very high on Disarm and says he has ‘limitless potential’. For this this reason I don’t see a problem with running him against Red Route One regardless of how he does in the Rebel. RRO seems like a deep closer and Disarm seems more tactical and should get the jump on him in the stretch for the derby points. I believe Steve A views Disarm as his best horse and I’m glad he is taking the leap with this Maiden winner in the ARK Derby. I like the way he eats up ground with those powerful strides and like you I believe he got a lot out of his Allow. race. Even if the talented Two Eagles River goes in the ARK Derby I believe Disarm can turn the tables on him. He won’t get that easy uncontested lead in the ARK Derby like he did in the Allow. Disarm has an extra 1/8 to reel him in. I liked the gallop out by Disarm in the Allow. He looks to want more ground. He has a big frame and once he gets going he is like a freight train. I like that he has progressed from 5 1/2 to 7 to 8 and now 9 furlongs next out.
When a good frontrunner on an easy lead comes home in :12 1/5 and :12 flat he’s not going to get beat. For him to come home in :12 2/5 and :12 flat off that layoff is extraordinary. As I said he will be back in the rankings sooner than you think.
Hey Steve – glad to hear Disarm was closing fast chasing that front runner off of that long layoff. I believe he will be in your rankings Very soon, maybe your next one. It’s scary exciting to anticipate how well Disarm may improve and do on the ARK Derby. The KY Derby would be his 3rd start off of the layoff. But first things first.Let’s see him train strongly at OP leading up to the ARK Derby so he can fire a big shot. You know Steve A will be tightening the screws for the ARK Derby because right now he has no KY Derby points. All he has to is get back to his MSW form when he cruised by Arthur’s Ride to be ready to roll in the ARK Derby. I like that the ARK Derby is on 4-1. This gives Disarm 5 weeks to prepare for the KY Derby if he can fire a big shot.
I have already spoken to Scott Blasi about him and he said they really like him.
Surprised to see Disarm’s Thoro Graph number come back so slow and a major regression from his maiden when which he should have improved from.
Hi Steve – I am not as concerned as you are by the decrease in his TG number. He was coming off a long layoff and as you said he was coming home fast against a loose on the lead horse, and his gallop out was strong. He is likely to improve greatly from that Allow. performance in the ARK Derby and will have to if he wants to hit the board and have a chance to go to Louisville in May. Keep the faith Steve. I think you have this one pegged right. We will find out if he is the real deal in the ARK Derby. I have confidence that he will fire a big shot and will will be in the mix at the finish line.
1JoeP, I agree with you about statistical regression in Disarm’s last race. It was a most promising effort off the long layoff.
Is that a good or bad omen, the Florida Derby and the Arkansas Derby are both on April Fools’ Day, 2023?
You’ll find out when you try to cash what you think are winning tickets.
Ha ha touché, you’re right of course. That’s what I’m afraid of. Lol.
Just also noticed that Arabian Knight has been lowered Monday at Caesars Sportsbook to 6-1….’lowered’, that is, with the next horse, Forte at 9-1 second choice.
What do they know and we do not?
So I guess you do not see Verifying or Giant Mischief or another touted winner of the Rebel Stakes as possible standouts Disarm could face in the Arkansas Derby?
Quite a shock to read in TDN that, Haras de Fresnay-le Buffard, formerly owned by Marcel Boussac and presently owned by the Niarchos family is up for sale. This historic stud farm has bred no less than 45 European Classic winners. Situated in a beautiful part of Normandy, let’s hope a prominent racing conglomerate buys Fresnay without delay.
Re: Rebel Stakes, Saturday, 2-25, Oaklawn Park, R11
Confidence Game, by Candy Ride, out of Eblouissante, by Bernardini, showed promise early on, and has finished in the money in 4 out of 5 races. His dam, Eblouissante, is a half sister to the great Zenyatta, so you would think the class and stamina influence is in his blood. I don’t believe this colt has shown his best, and could pull off the upset in the Rebel at 15-1 or more when the gates open. The other longshot I like is Event Detail, shipping in from Turfway Park who’s listed at 30-1.
That said, I’ll key CG and ED on top in the first two slots, with Verifying, Red Route One, Gun Pilot, Giant Mischief and Reincarnate underneath, in the 3rd and 4th slots.
That is: 7,9/ 7,9/ 1,3,4,5,6/ 1,3,4,5,6
Cost $40.00
There’s not much money to be made betting the favorites here, so I’ll swing for the fences in this race.
Safe trips to all.
That’s a *bold* bet! I wish you the best of luck.
Thanks Simon, I’ll need all the luck I can get. 🙂
I too like Event Detail…..as for Confidence Game—- he went through auction, and everyone knew who he was related to, and he still went cheap, I played him last time but didn’t bet much…
Hey Matthew W
I realize that I’m going out on a very shaky limb, keying my two longshots (Event Detail & Confidence Game), on top, with 5 others underneath in my superfecta p/w wager.
That’s why they call it gambling. I’ll stand by my statement that we haven’t seen the best of Confidence Game, and I’m not concerned about his auction price, ($25,000).
Obviously, Confidence Game and Event Detail are up against it, with the likes of Giant Mischief, Reincarnate, Verifying, RRO and Gun Pilot running in the Rebel Stakes.
Bottom line, the race could turn out to be the best Derby prep race to date, IMO.
Good luck if you bet the race, Mathew W.
Wonder no more. Forte will be Pletcher’s only entrant in the Fountain of Youth. Tapit Trice will be entered in the TB Derby, and Litigate and Kingsbarns will go to the Louisiana Derby (Marty McGee, DRF, 2/22/23).
Kingsbarn to the Kentucky Derby after a 1-mile MSW at GP in January, a 1m 40yd allowance at TB in February, and the 9.5f Louisiana Derby in late March? I’ll bet he’s not Derby bound. Pletcher has sent a fair number of this type to the Derby with little success.
Hey Simon
I can understand why Pletcher wants to seperate Forte and Tapit Trice. The FOY and the TB Derby offer 50 Derby points to the winner.
If both of his colts win their respective races, both will make the KD starting gate, which is the ultimate goal.
Keeping owners happy is probably the most stressful thing that trainers have to deal with.
That said, I’m somewhat disappointed that Forte and Tapit Trice will not face each other in the FOY.
The Derby trail is starting to get real interesting, starting with this weekend’s Rebel Stakes.
I figured Tapit Trice for the TB Derby. But I was hoping Kingsbarns would have four races to the Derby. Yes, the suspense is building!
Thanks Simon. You expected that scenario would play out for both colts, Forte and Tapit Trice. It’s probably better that Tapit Trice has a more arduous task than Forte, surface wise. Tampa Bay isn’t the easiest track unless everything falls into place.
Should Tapit Trice succeed at Tampa Bay the next race would probably be the Blue Grass Stakes. Unless they attempt to replicate the same failed schedule as Destin was given in 2016. Tampa Bay Derby to Kentucky Derby, no stops.
Destin! In retrospect, it looks like the Derby was a prep for the Belmont.
That is an interesting comment Simon, I noticed that Tapwrit won the Tampa Bay Derby then won the Belmont Stakes, Tacitus won the Tampa Bay Derby then was just nosed out in the Belmont Stakes (overconfident bad ride lost the race for Tacitus). Classic Causeway won the Tampa Bay Derby then won the Belmont Derby.
Coincidence or the track at Tampa Bay aids in building stamina at a later date in the Belmont Stakes/Derby?
Coincidence.
LOL
Forte will be the favorite in FOY and the Florida Derby if everything goes as planned ….
I find unlikely that Pletcher will not be using the Blue Grass, Wood Memorial and/or Arkansas Derby for his other top horses.
Anyway, Pletcher is the most successful Trainer taking horses to the Derby with an average of 3 horses per year o participation… he can easily have 3 or 4 this year.
Something I didn’t realise until looking it up but Pletcher has won more Arkansas Derby races than anyone else. Which isn’t that surprising considering but I never really associate Pletcher with Oaklawn Park. My blind spot. Lol.
I’m not feeling overwhelmed with confidence in seeing Tapit Trice will pursue the Tampa Bay Derby. The Tampa Bay route to the Twin Towers I really enjoy but for more seasoned colts that Tapit Trice.
Whenever I see a trainer separate his horses I think it’s a sign that he likes both— and when they run several in the same (prep) race it’s a sign he’s not that thrilled with either—just my two cents, Davids—I enjoy your posts!..
Thanks Matthew, I enjoy reading your posts as well and I agree with you about separating the better horses in separate preps rather than the same race. Obviously, Bob Baffert has so many to test that he often has to run a group together. Sharing the prize money around with his various prominent clients.
That is a bit surprising about Pletcher and the Ark Derby. I wouldn’t be too concerned about TT’s seasoning. Recent Tampa Derby winners Helium, King Guillermo, Tacitus, and Quip were lightly raced.
Yes Simon, the above results build confidence for Tapit Trice to run well but as you’d know post position can impact more so on an inexperienced runners. As well, the track is somewhat quirky although less so than in previous years.
Pletcher obviously believes that Tapit Trice has the aptitude to overcome any problems that might arise at Tampa Bay.
TT is the real deal. No knocks in my handicapping book. Well, except for price if he wins out!
Well, I like the Tampa Bay Derby, Blue Grass route. I know there has not been a Kentucky Derby winner since Street Sense, but Essential Quality and Zandon did not do too bad using the Blue Grass Stakes as a prep.
Pebbles, one reason trainers did not take the Blue Grass Stakes route is that from 2007 to 2014 the track was synthetic.
You are correct, prior to 2007 several horses from the 1990’s ran in the Blue Grass including Unbridled, Sea Hero and Strike The Gold. Good Magic is the latest colt to run in the Blue Grass Stakes and win the Derby.
Lynda, Good Magic ran a good race in the Derby, but finished 2nd to Justify. Todd Pletcher has sent many of his Derby prospects to the Blue Grass and he will do the same with Tapit Trice whom I like to win the roses this year. Can’t wait to see TT run at Tampa Bay. The excitement is building.
p.s. I enjoy your posts, Lynda, particularly when you discuss pedigree which I am weak on. Steve has attracted many knowledgeable commenters, of which you are one. Thank you for your contributions.
Hi Dewey, thank you for the correction. I always appreciate it when someone points an error out o me.
Thank you too for the compliment.
There are many knowledgeable commenters on this site.
I invariably learn something new all the time!
1. Panthalassa (Jpn) (Lord Kanaloa {Jpn}) Jockey Yutakada Yosheida; Trainer Yahagi; Owner Hiroo Race Co.
2.Taiba (USA) (Gun Runner {USA}) Jockey Mike Smith; Trainer Bob Baffert; Owner Amb Zedan
3.Crown Pride (Jpn) (Reach the Crown {Jpn}) Jockey Damien Lane; Trainer Shintani; Owner Yoshida
4. Scotland Yard (SA) (Quality Road {USA}) Jockey Victor Guitterez; Trainer Almulwalah; Owner Prince Saud Bin
5. Sunset Flash (Ire) (Mayson {GB}) Jockey Aseel Alsharhani; Trainer Naif Almandeel; Owner Fahain Almandeel
6. Jun Light Bolt (Jpn) (King Kamehameha {Jpn}) Jockey Ryan Moore; Trainer Jasuo Tomomichi; Owner Junji Kawai
7. Remorse (Ire) (Dubawi {Ire}) Jockey Tadhg O’Shea; Trainer Bhupat Seemar; Owner Al Rashid Stables
8. Emblem Road (SA) (Quality Road {USA}) Jockey Alexis Moreno; Trainer Almuwalah; Owner Prince Saud Bin
9. Vin de Garde (Jpn) (Deep Impact {Jpn}) Jockey Mickael Barzelona; Trainer; Fujiwara; Owner Shadai Horse Co.
10. Country Grammer (USA) (Tonalist {USA}) Jockey Frankie Dettori; Trainer Bob Baffert; Owner Amb Zedan
11. Lagertha Rhyme (Ire) (F) (Gutaifan {Ire}) Jockey Ricardo Sousa Ferreira; Trainer Almindeel; Owner Alshakareen Stable
12. Geoglyph (Jpn) (Drefong {USA}) Jockey Christophe Lemarie; Trainer Kimura Owner Sunday Racing Co.
13. Cafe Pharoah (JPN) (American Pharoah {USA} Jockey Joao Moreira; Trainer N Hori; Owner Nishikawa
Gate draws, jockey assignments for Saudi Cup, in case anyone is interested.
Japan is looking to continue their dominance on International stage from last year.
USA duo is looking for 1.2 finish for American horses Taiba, Country Grammer.
Emblem Road is looking to repeat last year’s win.
Thanks Lynda…I am curious to see how Cafe Pharoah runs against top international horses…Taiba looks like the most likely winner of the Saudi Cup at only 9 furlongs …
I’m all aboard ‘Frankie’s Farewell Tour,” I hope Frankie and Country Grammar put on a show to remember.
I am also following Dettori’s Adios with devotion.
Country Grammer will find the 2000 meters of the Dubai WC more fitting than the 1800 of the Saudi Cup… But the son of Tonalist will be brightening up the $20-million race for sure.
Dettori will be energized and productive with a lot of mounts this weekend:
FRIDAY FEBRUARY 24
RACE 1- FILLIES MILE: THEQATEE (KSA) (Turki Alsubaie)
RACE 2- INTERNATIONAL JOCKEY CHALLENGE R1: GHADHBAH (KSA) (Ahmed Mohamoud)
RACE 3- INTERNATIONAL JOCKEY CHALLENGE R2: INZEH (KSA) (Abdullah Almonif)
RACE 4- TUWAIQ CUP: CALCULATION (GB) (Meshal Almutairi)
RACE 5 – INTERNATIONAL JOCKEY CHALLENGE R3: AASSER (FR) (Abdullah Alsaif)
RACE 6 – INTERNATIONAL JOCKEY CHALLENGE R4: GENERAL LEE (IRE) (Abdah Alathaab)
SATURDAY FEBRUARY 25
RACE 1-HANDICAP: 2-ALMOBEER (Hamad Al Rasheed)
RACE 5- LONGINES RED SEA TURF HANDICAP: 2-TRAWLERMAN (John & Thady Gosden)
RACE 6- SAUDI DERBY:12- HAVNAMELTDOWN (BAFFERT)
RACE 7- RIYADH DIRT SPRINT: 2- ELITE POWER (MOTT)
RACE 8= THE SAUDI CUP: 2- COUNTRY GRAMMER (BAFFERT)
Yes Nelson, thanks. His stamina has never failed him over the years. I first met him in 1989 when he was quite a shy, slightly introverted teenager under the guidance of Luca Cumani. The confidence certainly grew. Ha ha I really think he is still riding at his peak, as confident as he has ever been. The world of racing will certainly miss this star performer when he finally departs the scene. In the meantime, go Frankie!
Hi Nelson. Based on what little checking I did after the draw today, the concensus seems to be that Taiba will win the SC.
Bob B seemed to be pleased with Taiba’s draw, not so much Country Grammer”s.
Hope Cafe P does well. So want to see AP do well as a stallion.
Bob was quoted wishing for a wider draw for Taiba, only one turn and they’re inside…
Yes Matthew, Baffert wasn’t enthusiastic on either horse’s post draw. Luck will be needed.
Source: Draw and Reaction The Saudi Cup
22 February 2023
thesaudicupdotcomdotsa
Taiba (USA) Bob Baffert “I think it is good to have a speed horse inside him. He likes company, to run with another to get him into the race”.
“Taiba got gate 2 for the 1 1/8-mile Cup and Baffert said he “hoped he would draw a little more outside. ‘Country’ got number 10. But now that’s a problem for the jockeys. They’ll figure it out”
“The Blood-Horse” ‘Saudi Cup Field Includes 2022 Winner, Baffert Duo’ – Bob Kierkhefer
Suggest you read the full article.
horseracesdotnet
2023 Saudi Cup Entries
02/23/2023
After drawing post 2 for favorite Taiba, Bob Baffert said, “I think it’s good to have a speed horse (Panthalassa) inside of him. He likes company, to run with another horse to get him into the race.”
He’s got Crown Prince right outside him..
Crown Pride….whi set that crazy Derby pace….if Taiba sends it will be torrid pace if he waits …he MAY get to come through an inside hole, as those others bear out but that would be lucky…probably will need to work out a trip, which is likely, cuz he’s probably the best horse..
Yes Matthew, as Baffert commented an outer post would have been better for Taiba, the sand at King Abdulaziz Racetrack stings like no other. Getting stuck inside could be problematical.
Thanks Lynda. Baffert’s two horses have been leisurely working (seven furlongs gallops in mid February) towards this race and will be probably follow up this Saudi Cup with the Dubai World Cup a month from Saturday.
Of course, I believe these two horses will run 1-2 but stranger things do happen….like last year.
Look for Taiba to have a big race after a 106 Beyer Malibu.
Hi John. Caught a few seconds of both Taiba and CG working out on the track over there). Both look great. BB made the comment that CG loves that track. I think if I were a horse, I would love it too and the accommodations as well.
Good luck and safe racing to all and good luck to everyone with their bets. Should be a good race I think.
D’oh, it took me a sec to realize these are the entries for the Saudi Cup!
LOL, well it is small condensed print.
My play is Jun Light Bolt. He began as a turf colt and with his switch to dirt, he’s become a star.
With Ryan Moore aboard, look out!
“Is anyone aware that Triple Crown winners Citation and Whirlaway and most of the Calumet Farm Kentucky Derby winners ran in the Derby Trial four days before the Derby… and they all had a workout in between? Do you think the training game, and perhaps the Thoroughbred, has changed?”
Gosh…I miss those days….and Handicap races too while we are at it. 🙁
Me too Gerard.
Gerard, if you’re old enough to remember watching those Calumet derby winners, all I can say is HERE’S TO YOU!
Steve, Thanks again for your weekly assessment for the Derby. I noticed no mention of Litigate ( I know you said you wanted to see another race before passing judgment) or Groveland, but then again it is your column and I respect that. The thing that really impressed me with him (Litigate) in the Sam Davis is that the jockey shot him out of the gate and then pulled back on him. A lot of young horses would have sulked and in most cases thrown the bit, but he accepted it and when asked to start running again he took off. To me that shows maturity in a horse. Something weird about the Beyer figure as that had to be a changing track throughout the day due to the rain but the fractions for the race to me were pretty decent. For the 1/4 — 23.92, 1/2 –46.94, 3/4 — 1:11.27, 1M — 1:37.78 and 1 1/16 — 1:44.37. Were as HIT SHOW fractions were 1/4 — 23.53, 1/2 — 48.09, 3/4 — 1:13.43; 1M — 1:40.65, 1 1/8 — 1:54.71.
As for the Derby itself and the exclusion of Baffert ( I am a big Baffert fan as you may have guessed from some of my previous post) I am no longer interested in it. The owners that are leaving him I call them “JUDAS’s”. Although he probably accepts it (inside of him you know he feels betrayed ). I probably won’t be making anymore post until
The Preakness
So Baffert is being betrayed by owners that want to win the Kentucky Derby. Why do you think that they gave their young colts to Baffert? It’s not like an owner who moves his horse from a young/less experienced trainer to a trainer with experience so that the horse has a supposedly better chance of getting to the derby. Baffert brought this upon himself by violating rules. You must think that the owners are responsible for a trainer’s transgressions. They are not.
Loyalty is Loyalty , and they knew Baffert’s situation before they gave there young colts to him. They desert like rats on a sinking ship. He had little chance of winning as we now know with the State of Kentucky’s kangaroo court system. The judge had to choose between Baffert or her family’s livelihood and we all know what she chose. Medina Spirit won major races after the KD without the medication he was disqualified for.
Actually, I believe Bob Baffert’s usual clientele have been extremely loyal to him in every respect. They could have decided not to send any of their young stock to the Baffert barn until the entire matter had been resolved, leaving the trainer high and dry for a lengthy period.
The days of “Puddle-Covering Chivalry” are long gone. Everyone is pragmatic these days, including Bob Baffert.
I stand were I stand and that “clientele” just used Baffert and deserted him when he needed them most. I don’t think Baffert would ever have a problem finding new clientele!!!
You did say that you’re a “big Baffert fan,” and along with saying something like “The judge had to choose between Baffert or her family’s livelihood and we all know what she chose,” we can be certain you have no objectivity with regard to the Baffert controversy.
Sorry, cant mention everyone. I plan on catching up with Litigate next week.
Thanks Steve
What are you talking about nobody’s leaving him, he’ll get them back, after the Derby, sheesh..
Just for fun, Rebel Stakes Trvia
Rebel has been a part of The Road to the Kentucky Derby since 2013.
Record time – Vanlandingham 1:40 1984
Largest winning margin – 7 lengths (1968 & 1989)
Owner with most wins – Loblolly Stable 5 (including Vanlandingham).
Jockey with most wins – Mike Smith (1986, 1993, 1999, 2014 on Hoppertunity, 2019 on Omaha Beach)
Trainer with most wins – Bob Baffert (2010 w/Lookin at Lucky, 2011 w/The Factor, 2012 w/ Secret Circle, 2014 w/Hoppertunity, 2015 w/American Pharoah, 2016 w/Cupid, 2020 w/Nadal, 2021w/Concert Tour
Rebel – Arkansas Derby Double – 14 including Smarty Jones in 2004, Curlin in 2007, and American Pharoah in 2016
The Rebel is often considered to be a prep race for the Arkansas Derby
Each of last ten winners were within 2 lengths of the lead at half-mile and 5 of the 10 winners led after the half-mile.
9 winners since 2014 had single digit odds going into the race.
Shippers typically do better than locals.
Race favors last out winners.
Highest winning timeform was 119 by The Factor
Interesting stuff Lynda, thank you!
Hi Lynda
Thanks for providing the likely winner of the Rebel Stakes. Based on your input, Reincarnate will win the Rebel. 🙂
BTW, he does possess the highest Equibase Speed Figure in the field, at 103, and the highest last out Brisnet, at 98.
Thanks for taking the time to post all that info.
Good luck Lynda.
Thank you Bill.
Yes, as I was gathering all this info it quickly came to mind that Reincarnate is the most likely winner.
You’re welcome Lynda
Event Detail, in post position 9, will be making a hugh step up in class, coming off his maiden win at Turfway Park. It comes as no surprise that this City of Light colt is listed at 30-1 on the morning line. He earned an impressive Equibase Speed Figure of 99 for his maiden win, which puts him right there with Reincarnate (103), Verifying (102), RRO (98) and GM (98).
A $10.00 WPS wager (across the board) on Event Detail, might return a few bucks.
However, just to be clear, we’re on the same page that Reincarnate is the likely winner of the Rebel Stakes.
Great compilation Lynda…! Thank you!
Just to keep having fun I am adding some other figures:
Since 1980 the Rebel horses show the following results in the Derby: 59 horses-3 firsts-2 seconds- 3 thirds)
Since 2008 when the Rebel became Grade II, the biggest longshot was last year’s winner Un Ojo (Laoban) at 75.40 to 1, the second largest pay out was Win Willy (Monarchos) a 56.80 to 1 winner in 2009.
Rebel/Kentucky Derby winners
1983 Sunny’s Halo
2004 Smarty Jones
2015 American Pharoah
Undefeated winners: Smarty Jones, Curlin, Nadal, The Factor and Magnum Moon
Winningest Jockey/Trainer combo: Joel Rosario/Bob Baffert: 2 wins
Martin Garcia/Bob Baffert: 2 wins
John McKee/Robert E. Holthus: 2 wins
Good stuff Nelson! Thank you for adding more information.
Re: “Shippers typically do better than locals.”
Since the inception of the point systems, far more runners have shipped in to Oaklawn for the Rebel. Only one horse that last raced at Oaklawn has won the Rebel since 2013: Long Range Toddy in 2019 [I read this in the same Keeler Johnson article from which you collected your list] when only two of the seven runners last raced at Oaklawn.
So this year, Verifying, Gun Pilot, and Red Route One will try to buck the trend. Giant Mischief and Reincarnate have the advantage of shipping in.
Simon says:, I have come to accept the fact over the past few weeks that you are going to pick at something in most, if not all of my posts and comments.
Just as an FYI to you, I collected information for my “Just for fun, Rebel Stakes Trivia” post from several sources not just Keeler Johnson’s article.
For some reason you have singled me out for criticism. Have I stepped on your toes? Have I insulted you in some way? Have I been rude to you? Exactly what is your problem with me?
Best thing for me to do moving forward is to just ignore your remarks and replies to me.
Fair enough!
Speaking of plagiarism and AI, have you ever used Microsoft Bing AI, ChatGPT, EsseyGenius et al. They are incredible as are the AI plagiarism checkers. You can ask them to write an essay at any length on any topic in your own style then bingo. Universities, newspapers etc are very concerned that AI in the future will enable students, journalists etc can simply press buttons to do the hard work without proper research or references let alone understanding the subject matter.
Well Davids, if you or Simonsays think I committed plagiarism, you can always report me to the FBI. That is the easy we roll these days in good ole ‘Mericka.
Good lord, get a grip, what on earth are you raving on about? Paranoia? I was talking to Simon about plagiarism, AI, and University students where I work. Real research that counts with major implications to people’s future, not chat forums.
FBI, stop taking yourself so seriously.
It’s definitely a problem that has gotten worse in recent years. Most of the milder offenses could easily be avoided by simply citing sources and using quotation marks.
We’ve played around with a few of the various ‘writing assistants’ and, amazingly enough, they can construct cogent essays with an argument. Scary stuff.
Perhaps human are becoming redundant. We’ve had a good run for ourselves. For the planet, not so much. 😉
Simon, you may have heard it but if you haven’t, there is an extraordinary podcast from the BBC’s highly respect Reith Lectures on AI and the future. Professor Stuart Russell of Computer Science and founder of the Centre for Human-Compatible Artificial Intelligence of the University of California, Berkeley, is giving the lectures.
“Living with Artificial Intelligence”
1. The Biggest Event in Human History
2. AI in Warfare
3. AI in the Economy
4. AI: A Future for Humans
On the one hand he assures you have nothing to worry about then on the other he scares the life out of you. The future is AI and humans are becoming obsolete. It’s worth listening to at any level.
Thanks! I’ll check it out.
humans
Just for information:
Odds
1 Verifying (KY) 3/C F Geroux 122 B H Cox 2/1
2 Powerful (KY) 3/C I Castillo 117 S M Asmussen 20 /1
3 Red Route One (KY) 3/C C A Torres 117 S M Asmussen 10/1
4 Gun Pilot (KY) 3/C R Santana, Jr. 122 S M Asmussen 8/1
5 Giant Mischief (KY) 3/C I Ortiz, Jr. 117 B H Cox 5/2
6 Reincarnate (KY) 3/C J R Velazquez 122 T Yakteen 7/2
7 Confidence Game (KY) 3/C J Graham 119 J K Desormeaux 15/1
8 Talladega (KY) 3/C F Prat 117 R Brisset 30/1
9 Event Detail (KY) 3/C G Corrales 117 P H Lobo 30/1
10 Bourbon Bash (KY) 3/C M Michel 117 D W Lukas 20/1
11 Frosted Departure (KY) 3/C F Arrieta 117 K G McPeek 20/1
Thanks Steve for the clear and concise updates. It’s manna from heaven. Still intrigued with Red Route One, shades of Giacomo
Forte’s status is growing by the compound effect of him training impressively and the lack of worthy challengers so far. Steve listed his strengths, and we can understand how those traits set him apart from many of previous 2-year-old champions.
After watching the head-on replay of the BC Juvenile, I realized that another forte of Forte is his fortitude to overcome racing troubles. You can see clearly how Irad Ortiz Jr. could not avoid the son of Violence veering violently to his right at the break.
Forte slammed Verifying who in a chain reaction also bumped Blazing Sevens very hard.
No one can know how that mishap affected Blazing Sevens and Verifying, but clearly it did not hamper Forte. Even if Forte was the one striking two horses, he also lost power and momentum trying to find his initial strides.
Although I also believe that Cave Rock was not himself in the BC Juvenile (evidenced by his drastic decline of his speed figure) still Forte’s display of agility and late surging power is outstanding.
It is curious that in his three Grade One wins Forte defeated the odds-on favorite. Gulfport and Loggins are out of contention; and Cave Rock is lagging in his training.
Forte is still standing tall, and his game plan is going well. Pletcher has the privileged problem of properly allocating Forte, Tapit Trice, Kingsbarns and Litigate to get non-competing points.
One thing is sure, the Hall of Fame trainer needs no one telling him how to do it…
I am fortunate to have read the following turn of phrase: “another forte of Forte is his fortitude.”
I’ll withhold judgement on Forte until he actually becomes a 3 year old runner.
Thanks Simon. I am glad you liked this little Alliteration/consonance…
There is great expectations for Forte 3-y-old debut… I bank on him winning easily given the undistinguished quality of the competition at Gulfstream so far.
But you are right … we all have to wait and see if he is another Nyquist or Essential Quality type of runner.
Who knows. But the FOY field may be better than you anticipate.
There have been only two long-shots to win this year’s derby preps, and 7 of the 10 winners (including 5 faves) were 5-2 or lower. The Rebel will have two runners that fit the profile: Verifying (2-1 ML) and Giant Mischief (5-2 ML). GM is one of my four future bets, and so is Gun Pilot. If GP goes off around his 8-1 line, I think he’s good value. If he’s bet down to 5-1, maybe not. Asmussen has had to rush this colt for the Derby, but entering him for the Rebel just 3 weeks after the allowance win tells me that the trainer thinks he has a good shot. Watch his last race, particularly the final 70 yards where Santana seemed to have pushed a button for an extra gear. I use that description because the running line says “push button.” 😉
Hey Simon
I’ve got Derby Futures exacta wagers on Verifying, Gun Pilot and Giant Mischief, in Pool 3 & 4, so I hope they do well.
I keyed those three, along with six other longshots, on top, with ten bombers underneath in my $2.00 exacta wagers.
The horses I keyed on top are as follows (with their closing odds indicated)
Giant Mischief (43-1), Gun Pilot (66-1), Practical Move (83-1), Rocket Can (35-1), Verifying (34-1), Litigate (28-1), Hit Show (28-1) and Instant Coffee (22-1). I used 10 horses underneath in each of those exacta p/w wagers.
Best case scenario for me; Hit Show wins the Derby and Gun Pilot, comes in second which would pay me $27,168.
That is;
Hit Show/Gun Pilot = $15,199 (Pool 3)
Hit Show/Gun Pilot = $4,095 (Pool 4)
Hit Show, $100 to win = $7,874 (Pool 3)
Total: $27,168
A pipe dream? Without question. 🙂
That’s some derby futures bet! Good luck.
Thanks Simon, good luck to you as well.
Thanks! We all need it.
Nice column Steve as always, I don’t know what to make of Arabian Knight I am not sure he beat anything in the slop we will find out soon enough next out as it gets much deeper. I think Cox sending Hit Show to NY & spliting up his runners helps him. We know he can travel & that slow track he glided over & returned a nice number too. Wood Memorial he will be taking on all comers then back to Ky hopefully…. Something about Verifying troubled trip in Breeders Cup Juvenile tells me that they were high on him from the start & he has bounced back since maybe the star of the barn will know more after Saturday. As for Shug he’s old school he spots his horses with a purpose watch out if General Jim is the goods. It’s wide open & getting late already the Ky Derby winner is not coming from the Fairgrounds unless somebody ships in IMO plodders
It’s official, per Brad Cox, Loggins is off the Derby trail.
A shame, as Loggins ran the best race of any 2 year old last year. Took all the pace heat, then dug in on Forte despite Irad up to his usual tricks laying all over him. Probably should have been placed first.
He was never on it..
Rainy weekend at Santa Anita coming up….following Sat is Big Cap day, Geaux Rocket Ride expected, Practical Move…maybe Skinner, whom I am high on! Others, for sure….March 4th will tell plenty—three major preps!..
I would think that most people involved in the Horse Racing Industry, (owners, trainers and fans) would agree that Irad Ortiz Jr. is currently the top jockey in the country. When and if Forte makes the Derby starting gate, without question Irad will be aboard. However, Luis Saez is performing at a high level as well, IMO. He (Luis) has ridden several winners in important stepping stone Derby races, such as, Instant Coffee, Litigate, Angel of Empire, General Jim and Tapit Trice. It will be interesting to see where in lands in the upcoming 50 point Derby races, on March 4th, and ultimately the Kentucky Derby.
If Tapit Trice can win a 50 point, and/or a 100 point race, and makes the Derby starting gate, I would think Luis Saez will be aboard TT. Stay tuned.
Instant Coffee has put together a fast last 5/16s come home time, and the Derby pace is usually solid—whomever is aboard I like his chances, to hit the board…..If Luis opts for another—-Kent D would be a terrific fit, he knows what it takes, to get into the Derby winners enclosure!..
Great tip, Matthew W. I’ll add it to my notes on him.
I mean no disrespect to Kent Desormesx, but I believe Kent’s best riding days are behind him. Enough said.
Edit to state: Desormeaux
There’s a guy who must be impersonating him out here, outriding guys in THEIR prime—and he’s been there, done that!..
He’s off to a good start this year, but we’ll probably see a regression to the mean.
His times are way to slow to be a Ky Derb6 winner in my opinion. I’ll pass
“Hitting the board” is top four..
Bill, I’ll never forget the look on Luis’ face when he dismounted Tapit Trice in the winners circle… he was grinning ear to ear. Now, I’m no lip reader, but, it looked like he was asking Todd Pletcher to please let him keep the mount. I really believe that Luis thinks that Tapit Trice is his best chance for the Derby this year. I’d really like to see Luis win the roses to make up for the disappointment of his disqualification aboard Maximum Security.
Both Forte and TT are nominated for the Fountain of Youth. Personally, I’d like to see both of them race against each other. Forte has the edge in foundation but TT is improving steadily. Besides, I’m no fan of the Tampa Bay Derby as a prep for the Derby.
Thanks for the reply Dewey
I agree with all your points. I’d like to see Forte and Tapit Trice throw down in the FOY, and let the best horse win.
A Tapit colt has yet to win the Kentucky Derby, maybe this will be the year. Tapit colts do much better in the Belmont, as you probably know.
BTW, any thoughts on Hit Show, I like his chances moving forward on the Derby trail. He has an impressive turn of foot, as he displayed in his last two outtings and his maiden win.
Good luck Dewey.
I know you’re a big fan of Hit Show, Bill, and I can see why with the way he won the Withers. There’s been a few that have been critical of his win due to the relatively slow time, but the winter surface at Aqueduct is conducive to slow times rather than speed. If anything, the heavy track at Aqueduct will do a great deal for a horse’s conditioning. Hit Show won the Withers with authority and appears to have a flexible running style to suit any pace. He is definitely a Derby contender to be reckoned with.
Good luck with your Futures bets, Bill. I declined to make any Futures bets due to my bad history with these wagers. My horses would often get sidelined and not even make the starting gate. So, Tapit Trice, among others, won’t have to worry about me jinxing them. lol
Thanks for your support of Hit Show, Dewey. Just reading between the lines, it appears Cox will point him to the Wood for his next start. What caught my eye, early on, was his impressive pedigree, top and bottom. He’s from the Mr. Prospector sire line, which has produced a lot of Kentucky Derby winners. The class and stamina influence on his dam side is something to behold. His dam and 2nd dam with graded winners routing. Milwaukee Brew, sire of his 2nd dam, (Milwaukee Appeal) won close to 3 million dollars in career earnings. In addition, Hit Show is a Gary and Mary West homebred which adds to his appeal, IMO. Over the past 20 years or so, about 60% of the Kentucky Winners have been homebred.
Bottom line, Hit Show checks a lot of boxes.
BTW, I haven’t been very successful on my past Derby Futures bets either. I was all in on Simplification last year, and Rock Your World in 2021. When I saw that Hit Show was 77-1 in Futures Pool 3, I could resist placing a $100.00 win wager on him, and keyed him on top with the entire Pool 3 field, in my exacta wager.
The way I look at it, “you can’t take it with you”.
Why not just bet a few dollars? You can still have some fun.
Because it’s more fun to win big money, rather than chump change. 🙂
Bill Dawson, that advice was for Dewey, who is now betting nada on derby futures.
Got it. No problem Simon.
It wasn’t really the money, Simon (my futures bets were in the $20 – $50 range). My frustration betting futures was that I always seemed to jinx the horses I bet on. Maybe I’m too superstitious, but now I’d rather see them in the post parade before I place a bet. Good luck to all who bet the Derby futures…. you’re gonna need it.
I’m not an expert in Jinx Science, but I would guess that your futures bets have no bearing on a horse’s performance. But just to be safe, go ahead and bet but don’t tell anyone which horses you bet on.
Jockeys/agents often make choices they later regret. I don’t have any data to support that observation, but I have noted “bad” choices many times over the years.
Don’t really know the plans for Cave Rock but this horse did workout yesterday (Monday)….
49.40 for 4 (18/22) now two straight weeks of workouts.
However, missing was Arabian Knight, whom had a workout last Monday-the same day as CR but not yesterday…
Steve, National Treasure is possibly for than San Felipe and Fort Bragg is nominated for the Mine That Bird Derby. Do you think they will stay with Baffert and skip the Derby and aim for the Preakness Stakes instead? They seem to be forgotten somewhat in the shuffle. Thanks, if you know anything.
The. owners have so many horses with Baffert they have to keep a bunch and pass the Derby and go for the Preakness. National Treasure is one of their better ones but doesnt win much so he could stay with Baffert. I would think if they were thinking Derby they would have moved him by now.
Rains this weekend, at Santa Anita, they close when it’s wet now, and the horse death yesterday is headline news, out here— I cannot believe they are clamoring for Santa Anita to close permanently! California is a different world!
Weird that they would announce a Friday cancelation on Monday because of a forecast of rain.
Weird is the word! It pours rain, and the state flushes if all out to sea….natural gas price has TRIPLED—state buys from other states, does not mine its own (plentiful) gas fields….there’s nobody to complain to its a one party state now and likely forever..
Steve and Matthew, with climate change there has developed these new ‘atmospheric rivers’ that build up offshore then create storms akin to rivers in the sky that dump massive amounts of rain which can cause flooding, trigger mudslides, loss of life and enormous property damage.
California is a prime example of these atmospheric rivers, they can forecast when the huge dumps of rain are liable to occur.
Excellent!
Thanks Steve. That was my take, the 10f at Churchill Downs could be a step too far for these two but the Preakness might be attempted should they show the aptitude/form beforehand.
“[T]here isn’t that much difference between the so-called good horses and bad horses?”, yes Steve, the answer to your question is, yes!! Until there is a colt that really starts to dominate I’m expecting flip, flopping backwards and forwards all the way to the first Saturday in May. Although, this is fun in itself, you always hope to see a handful of special colts compete for the roses.
Perhaps this will come to pass in a month or so but at the moment this crop appears to lack Star power. Tapit Trice is the exception but an Allowance win is just that. No stakes win, no points collected. I saw Agatha Christie’s “The Mousetrap” last Saturday and the Risen Star Stakes result was a much bigger mystery. Whodunnit – “Angel of Empire” – who would have guessed?
Steve, your intrepid reporting skills and hopeful explanations on results are making this Derby Trial a lot more interesting for me, and everyone else for sure, than it really is. Things, can only get better, so we’ll stick to it. When the Baffert – nonBaffert – colts start running things will pickup, I hope and the arrival of Forte is highly anticipated. Pletcher might just have the best two colts so separating them will be intriguing.
On to the Rebel Stakes with no doubt another mystery to be unraveled after the event. Hercule Haskin is on the case.
Lol. Thanks very much David.
Good assessments on these young 3 year old’s.
What a crapshoot we have this season. You said it correctly after Justify won the Derby & Triple Crown. The new norm may be lightly raced horses in the Derby & Triple Crown. It sure is looking that way. Personally, I believe that not running horses gives a greater chance of injury. Bones, ligaments & etc need to develop
As you know & you are the expert on this, light racing then we ask young horses to go 10 furlongs is very taxing on the body. I think horses should run at least 1 or 2 sprint races before the Derby.
Thanks for your continued Derby Rankings. I know its hard work. I am very thankful that you do this.
My 3 picks so far are the same.
Arabian Knight
Faustin
Verifying
I couldnt agree more Deacon. There is a reason why the days of great crops of 4 and 5 year olds are gone. Football players who try not to get hurt often get hurt.
There are no experts when it comes to horses, but I appeciate you saying it. 🙂
Maybe the fact that Baffert works his horses hard (and fast) is why he has such success (with seemingly durability)? He doesn’t seem to pussy-foot around. I’m sad for his absence again this Derby season. Lucian Lauren seemed concerned about working Secretariat too hard between Preakness and Belmont but recognized the horse thrived on the work.
He pushes horses hard. No fan of his.
Looking for Cox’s GM running huge.
Thanks as always for your weekly nuggets of knowledge! I was VERY high on Victory Formation. Any comments on why he got beat by 15 lengths? I realize the wide post and wide trip but I still thought he would look more competitive. maybe he’s not as good as I figured?! I wasn’t super impressed with anyone in that race, were you? Thanks.
There have been lot of horses this year who are not as good as we figured. If I hear anything about him I will let you know.
KENTUCKY DERBY POINTS 50-20-15-10-5
Oaklawn Park – February 25, 2023
RACE 11 Rebel S. (Grade II) POST TIME – 6:23 PM ET
Purse $1,000,000. Three Year Olds. One And One Sixteenth Miles.
PP Horse A/S Med Jockey Wgt Trainer
1 Verifying (KY) 3/C F Geroux 122 B H Cox
2 Powerful (KY) 3/C I Castillo 117 S M Asmussen
3 Red Route One (KY) 3/C C A Torres 117 S M Asmussen
4 Gun Pilot (KY) 3/C R Santana, Jr. 122 S M Asmussen
5 Giant Mischief (KY) 3/C I Ortiz, Jr. 117 B H Cox
6 Reincarnate (KY) 3/C J R Velazquez 122 T Yakteen
7 Confidence Game (KY) 3/C J Graham 119 J K Desormeaux
8 Talladega (KY) 3/C F Prat 117 R Brisset
9 Event Detail (KY) 3/C G Corrales 117 P H Lobo
10 Bourbon Bash (KY) 3/C M Michel 117 D W Lukas
11 Frosted Departure (KY) 3/C F Arrieta 117 K G McPeek
Thanks for the list, better race than I thought it would be.
You are welcome.
Hi Lynda
At first glance, Verifying, Red Route One, Giant Mischief and Reincarnate appear to be the top four colts in the Rebel Stakes, IMO.
The morning line odds have yet to be posted, but I intend to take a long look at Event Detail, who could surprise at good odds.
Bill, I agree about top 4.
I do too, although I only glanced at the entries while awaiting a flight at LGA.
Thanks Lynda. Did you notice that the Cox, Asmussen and Yakteen/Baffert horses all got the inside? Cox has never won this race but neither has Johnny V, Ortiz Jr, Geroux nor Prat….I look for one of these streaks to be broken.
At 50 points to the winner then 20 points and even 15 this is a race that a horse can run second and possible third and still be on the bubble of getting into the KD.
You are welcome John. Yes I did notice the inside draw for the 4. I agree that one of the streaks will be broken.
Something new this year in the points system is the addition of points for 4th place which you and others have probably noticed.
The bubble has averaged around 40 points each year to make the field. (Since 2013).
Actually, the average is 23.5 points, not including the Sept 2020 covid derby with 15 runners.
Simon says:, the average number of points to be assured of earning a gate in the Derby has been on average right around 40 points in the ten year history of the points system.
For example, Forte has 40 points from his two year old campaign. In theory he might not race or accumulate any more points in 2023 and still be in.
Additionally, I was confirming what John said about a colt accumulating enough points by taking a second and a third and be in the Derby witout actually winning a prep race. I would add that a horse could take second in a 100 point race and be in.
I’m pretty sure John was writing about the minimum number of points to get in the gate. That’s why he referred to the 20 and 15 points awarded to 2nd and 3rd place finishers. My number refers to the average number of points for the last horse in. For example, Rich Strike was the last horse in the gate last year with 20 points.
John, I do need to make one correction in my reply to you. Starting in 2022-2023 points are given for fifth place. I had typed fourth.
Steve:
Just a quick note to thank you for continuing to make sense of this very confusing race to the Derby. Who knows? Maybe Forte will prevail and put an end to all the confusion. Really looking forward to his 3YO debut.
Ms Blactype, there isn’t much confusion really, apart from Tapit Trice’s performance, the rest we’ve seen so far are below par. The past two crops have had spectacular colts, this crop…
Davids, don’t overlook Arabian Knight, even though he’s probably already been transferred away from Baffert. He’s a brilliant colt.
If they want to run him in the San Felipe he has to be out of there pretty soon. I’m not crazy about him having only one 3 furlong work in the past 3 weeks. You would think with only 2 starts he’s be putting in some solid works at at least 5 furlongs. Timing-wise he should have worked this morrning, so we’ll have to see whats going on there and if he works in the next couple of days
Ms Blacktype, I’m not a “this crop is rubbish” February knocker but you have to admit there’s been a ton of fizzle with very little sizzle so far this year. Arabian Knight didn’t thrash some very average colts in the Southwaest Stakes. Just go over their previous history. Then Sun Thunder 4th in the Southwest Stakes comes second in the Risen StarStakes.
If Frosted Departure does well in the Rebel Stakes…
He won’t! You make a valid point. I hate being underwhelmed by these preps. I tend to follow the careers of horses I’ve seen on various Derby trails, and many of the stakes horses who don’t move all the way to the top (and are then retired after their 3YO years) tend to disappear into the allowance and claiming ranks. I’ve come to the conclusion that it’s a rare stakes caliber horse who can maintain that form for more than the first few races of his or her career. That may be why I love character horses who hang around forever, like Manny Wah, briefly on the trail in 2019 (38 starts, 1 Grade 2 stakes win, and nearly $1M in earnings). So few horses now can stand up to the rigors of racing.
You’re probably right Ms Blacktype, Frosted Departure has a poor post position and that is probably the difference between most of these colts. Better trips, better post positions rather than more talent.
After the Derby most of the parade revert back to distances, races they are better suited to anyway. Some go to stud while most as you described above disappear off the radar never to be mentioned again.
Hi Steve
Thank you for providing the insight that we depend on, moving forward, on this year’s Derby trail. It was good to see Hit Show move up a notch to number 5, on your Derby Rankings Week 5.
Lugan Knight, winner of the Jerome Stakes, appears to be flying under the radar, but I like his chances in the upcoming G3 Gotham Stakes, on March 4th. His pedigree reflects a lot of speed influence, but not a lot of stamina influence top or bottom.
However, as you know, horses have been known to outrun their respective pedigrees occasionally.
BTW, I posted my top five Derby contenders yesterday. We have the same top five, only in slightly different order. 🙂
Will Yakteen be taking nearly all of Baffert’s derby hopefuls? Is his stable capable of handling such an influx of trainees? And how will all of this impact his own derby horse, Practical Move?
Both good questions with no answer at this point
Yakteen is ideal because they are close, and after the Derby they will go back to Bob….not sure other trainers would accept those terms—also Bob has a lot of 3yos, but he usually only has one maybe two, for the actual Derby….
Yes, that probably answers the first question. But the next two questions may be difficult to answer at this time…as Mr H said.
Steve, liked your comments on two Knocking on the Door; Two Eagles River and Eyeing Clover. Both came on my radar yesterday when I was checking out race results.
Regarding Banishing, I read that he was injured while cast in his stall but it was not serious and had healed. May or may not account for poor performance over the weekend. Not sure how long before the race he was cast and injured.
He was injured before his last race when he had to be scratched. I imagine he was over that if he ran but who knows if that affected him. He stopped awfully abruptly.
The Rebel is shaping up to be a fun race with some top talent. I think it will Verifying’s coming out party you will see him in Steve’s top 3 next week!
I think folks are underestimating the talent of Reincarnate but that’s ok. They underestimated him in the Sham. Its going to be a good race and we will have a lot more to go on after this weekend.
Guess we’ll see if the transfer to Yakteen makes a difference on gameday
Shouldnt this week as he will be shipped to ARK but it may after that.
There are hurdles, barn change on top of the race…the ship….the high weight…
Hey Steve – I’m glad you haven’t lost faith in Disarm. I agree with you that he ran a good race in his Allow. considering he was coming off of a 6 month layoff and chasing a talented loose leader. Disarm was rolling late and galloped out strong. It gives me confidence that you believe he will move way up in his next start, which will hopefully be a 100 point KY Derby prep to try to get in. A couple of questions for you Steve. First, do you believe Steve Asmussen believes in Disarm enough after his Allow. race to target a 100 point prep next? Second, to me it looked like Tapit’s Conquest was going to win the Risen Star in the stretch, but he swung extremely wide and flattened out at the end, although he was running to the wire and was gaining on Two Phil’s and almost caught him. Do you believe his performance can be somewhat forgiven because of that wide swing in the stretch which may have taken the starch out of him? Lastly, maybe the 2nd by Disarm will keep his KDFW odds high in pool 5, a good opportunity for me to add some more money on him as he hopefully targets a derby prep next.
I think a lot of it will depend on what Ron Winchell wants to do. I think he is capable of showing more improvement next than anyone. He really needed this race and got a lot out of it. Tapits Conquest can improve but this turned out to be a pretty weak race .
Reincarnate entered in the REBEL in Tim Yakeen’s name and Johnny V riding. While i am not excited about the trainer , im happy he has a chance to get DERBY POINTS and i have heard he has gotten bigger and stronger. He is in my top 3 right now and i cant wait to see him run here at OAKLAWN
For whatever it’s worth, I wouldn’t give up on Disarm. He was barely in the gate and didn’t have time to take a breath before they sprung the latch and Two Eagles River, with the advantage of much more recency, went out to an easy lead. Disarm was on chase mode the whole way around. We should hopefully see him move forward from this.
Shopper’s Revenge was also the victim of a poor break — broke about three lengths slow, then was able to save ground but had to make a big wide sustained move to get into contention. It does worry me that the winner had been in for a tag, and I think Revenge was supposed to win anyway if he’s going to be a Derby horse, but he did have a trip.
Register is behind if he wants to make the Derby, but this colt ran an outstanding maiden race at Aqueduct this weekend and will always offer value if he shows up in stakes company because he’s not with one of the big-name trainers.
I believe the last Derby winner to make his 3yo debut after at least a 5-mo layoff and lose was Grindstone in 1996. But these days, anything can happen.
Simon, I think that’s about the best way to look at these colts “anything can happen.” As much as I like Tapit Trice, a flop in his next race would only be a mild surprise. Even Forte putting in a shocker on return wouldn’t be that unexpected. Compared to the last two crops this crop doesn’t seem to match up at all, at this stage anyway.
You just hope for something better. Even the supposed ‘wonder fillies’ haven’t come back well either.
Seems that the allowance races have had the most disappointing outcomes. Of the 10 derby preps this year, 5 were won by the favorite. Three were won by logical contenders at odds of 7-2, 5-2, and 5-2, while two were won by long-shots at 16-1 and 13-1.
Could be that we’re underestimating this crop. It’s still early. I’ve got a good collection of Brisnet derby PPs, and the speed figures so far this year stack up pretty well against previous years by late February.
From what I understand Hejazi worked yesterday (Sunday) in the company of Laurel River (who has won 3 straight races the last being the Grade 2 Pat O’Brien Handicap) and blew right past LR in 59.20 (1/62).
Also, Reincarnate had a work on Sunday as well…1.00.80 (22/62)
I thought Cave Rock running into that Nov 5th backstretch headwind was an excuse, but even if Forte was just better, he still ran well in his four races last year, in fact I like all four of the top finishers, in the Breeders Cup…..
Cave Rock had beaten himself prior to the race even starting. Had Cave Rock kept his composure, which he had done so previously, he may easily have won. Forte on the other hand looked the winner prior to the race – perfect composure, ready to explode.