2023 Derby Rankings – Week 7
We finally got the kind of results we’ve been looking for as Forte and Practical Move established themselves as the two top horses, and we had several horses who were defeated that put their names in the mix with brighter things to come. Now it’s on to the Tampa Bay Derby. ~ Steve Haskin
Derby Rankings: March 6, 2023 – Week 7
By Steve Haskin
No. 1 ranked Forte, photo courtesy of Coglianese Photos/Lauren King
1—Forte (Todd Pletcher, Violence – Queen Caroline, by Blame)
I will repeat what I have asked before, is there anything this colt can’t do? And I will add, does he have any weaknesses? So far, the only answer I can come up with on both questions is no. You never know how a horse is going to make the transition from 2 to 3, but Forte showed he is at worst the same horse he was last year. Coming off a four-month layoff, he always looked to be in command even being stuck down on the rail. We knew he was sharp coming off the layoff from the way he broke, but he settled nicely behind horses, patiently waiting for running room. All the while you knew once Irad Ortiz was able to pull the trigger the race was over. He finally was able to get him out in the clear four-wide and the race indeed was over. He quickly drew off with a :24 2/5 quarter and final sixteenth in :06 1/5, geared down in the final sixteenth, to win by 4 1/2 lengths. As I mentioned earlier, whether he’s inside or outside it doesn’t matter. Simply put, he knows how to get the job done. Finally, we have some clarity in the Derby picture, which for now revolves around Forte.
2—Practical Move (Tim Yakteen, Practical Joke – Ack Naughty, by Afleet Alex)
Could it be we now will have a fascinating East vs. West showdown to look forward to on the first Saturday in May? Practical Move’s victory in the San Felipe mirrored Forte’s score in the Fountain of Youth in a number of ways. Both were coming off layoffs, both were down on the inside for most of the running, patiently biding their time, and both ran like seasoned professionals who didn’t miss a beat despite the time off. Unlike Forte, who got to the outside, Practical Move waited for the rail to open up, and when the pacesetting Hijazi obliged, he shot through and methodically drew off a 2 1/2-length victory over the highly touted maiden winner Geaux Rocket Ride. Practical Move came home in almost identical closing fractions as Forte (:24 3/5 and :06 1/5) before galloping out some eight lengths clear of the others, looking like he wanted to around again. Yakteen and Practical Move have now beaten six Bob Baffert horses in their last two races, even if Yakteen was listed as the trainer of the three horses in the San Felipe. So we now have two emphatic leaders on both coasts who appear to be extremely talented and professional colts, who keep improving with every start. By the way, do you think he looks like a bargain now at 83-1 in the latest Future Wager? What in the world were people thinking? And he goes off as fourth choice in the San Felipe.
3—Tapit Trice (Todd Pletcher, Tapit – Danzatrice, by Dunkirk)
Yes, Pletcher does have another potential star who could make it a Big 3 if he wins Saturday’s Tampa Bay Derby as impressively as he won an allowance race in his last start. This is another colt who appears to have all the tools and can beat you by a nose in a dogfight or leave you far behind. The horse he outdueled in his maiden score, Slip Mahoney, actually ran a good second in the Gotham Stakes after breaking poorly and dropping way out of it in last. Tapit Trice had his final work for his stakes debut, breezing a half in :49 1/5 in company with the promising Dreamlike. Breaking off a length behind his workmate he collared him on the turn, and as Pletcher horses always do, they finished up together with Tapit Trice edging a half-length in front at the wire and then galloping out extremely strongly, again getting the better of Dreamlike, who had the advantage of being on the inside. One horse who could test him is the Swale Stakes winner General Jim if he recovers from the cough that kept him out of the Fountain of Youth Stakes. This colt has unlimited potential and will be the highlight of Saturday’s races on the Derby trail, as we near that mid-March lull before the big 100 point races begin on March 25
4—Hit Show (Brad Cox, Candy Ride – Actress, by Tapit)
All we need now is a big powerhouse from New York to give the Derby trail a true regional scope just like we used to have, and this would be the horse to accomplish that if he can land back-to-back mile and an eighth graded stakes wins at the Big A in the Wood Memorial, if Brad Cox decides to send him back there after his decisive victory in the Withers Stakes. But we still have a long wait for that race, so all we can do is hope he stays healthy and look back at how he has progressed with every start, having run four times at four different distances at four different tracks. He did break his maiden impressively at Keeneland in his career debut, so you can’t rule out the Blue Grass Stakes the same day as the Wood if Cox decides to go that route. Either way he will have two months between races and he might just need it after going nine furlongs on that deep tiring Aqueduct surface. In the meantime he had a solid five-furlong work in 1:01 3/5 at Fair Grounds.
5—Reincarnate (Tim Yakteen, Good Magic – Allanah, by Scat Daddy)
It seems after the first five or six spots there is a gap to the rest of the horses, not regarding pure talent as much as accomplishments, foundation, proven class, and being a sure thing to handle the mile and a quarter. We do have several talented horses who have questions concerning experience, but this guy is not one of them, with six career starts all at a mile or longer and on fast and sloppy tracks and grass. We all saw what he did in the Rebel Stakes with a new trainer, traveling cross-country for the first time, running in the slop for the first time, and overcoming a poor start that left him far back in the 11-horse field after being on or just off the lead in all his previous starts. And on top of that he had his run stopped in the upper stretch when two horses put the squeeze on him forcing him to steady, recover, and then put in a big run to finish third. What was most impressive was how he was striding out in the final furlong with great extension despite all he had gone through earlier. He is a tough, gutsy colt who generates a lot of power and should be a major force from now on.
6—Instant Coffee (Brad Cox, Bolt d’Oro – Follow No One, by Uncle Mo)
It’s not that I still don’t have concerns about his lack of racing, skipping the Risen Star Stakes, and having only one race in 14 weeks going into the Kentucky Derby. It’s just that I can’t think of anyone else to put here who is as proven as he is and who has two graded stakes victories to his credit. As I mentioned before, he was once considered slow, but his huge Thoro-Graph leap in the LeComte may have necessitated a change of plans to give him more time rather than risk a “bounce.” He also beat Confidence Game by almost eight lengths in the LeComte and that colt came back to win the Rebel Stakes at odds of 18-1. He hasn’t shown that wow factor yet, but he has a strong sustained stretch kick and knows how to win.
7—Rocket Can (Bill Mott, Into Mischief – Tension, by Tapit)
He is another I have not ranked high despite being a graded stakes winner because he has been too slow, beat a poor field in the Holy Bull Stakes, and hasn’t done anything to get you excited. But I have to admit he did show big improvement running second in the Fountain of Youth Stakes to Forte, and was beaten only a half-length by Confidence Game in an allowance race two starts back. So he definitely appears to be moving forward, and with Bill Mott you often have to have patience and expect his horses to keep improving. He is a complete outcross though five generations, his second dam Tough Tiz’s Sis, a daughter of Tiznow, was a multiple grade 1 winner, he has all three Triple Crown winners from the ‘70s – Secretariat, Seattle Slew, and Affirmed — in his pedigree, in his dam’s second and third generations are the winners of four Breeders’ Cup Classics, and his fifth dam is inbred to Man o’ War. He is an attractive son of Into Mischief and you can expect another move forward in his speed figures.
8—Skinner (John Shirreffs, Curlin – Winding Way, by Malibu Moon)
At first glance you would have expected him to go on with his run in the stretch after making a big move instead of appearing to be hanging just a bit and content with finishing fourth. But there was more to take out of his performance, such as coming back in only 20 days since breaking his maiden where he ran career high speed figures and then not being able to train up to this race as he normally would have because of the bad weather and having his final work nine days before the race. The track was, as Shirreffs put it, very unforgiving, and he did put in a powerful five-wide move on the far turn, running a swift :23 1/5 quarter before evening out in the stretch, perhaps due to the missed training and coming back off a big effort in only three weeks. Give him credit for continuing to persevere in the final furlong to get up for third though a fast final sixteenth. With it all he was beaten 3 3/4 lengths by one of the most accomplished 3-year-olds in the country. He no doubt has made big improvement from 2 to 3 and has finally figured how to be a professional racehorse. If you’re looking for classic bloodlines, his sire sired a Belmont winner and his two grandsires sired a Kentucky Derby winner and a Preakness winner.
9—Confidence Game (Keith Desormeaux, Candy Ride – Eblouissante, by Bernardini)
As you can see from previous comments he has been running big races against some pretty good horses and seems to be improving to where he has to be considered a legitimate Derby contender. And he’s been consistent, having finished in the money in six of his seven starts. He has the pedigree and the running style and Desormeaux knows what to do with a good horse. With a career-high Beyer figure of only 83 he jumped to a 94 in the Rebel Stakes and did it running on his wrong lead in the stretch. Also his Thoro-Graph number catapulted from a 7 to a 2, which puts him right up there among the fastest 3-year-olds. So either he freaked in the slop or he has emerged as a horse to watch from now on. As you are well aware by now he is going to have a huge fan base with his dam being a half-sister to Zenyatta,
10—Red Route One (Steve Asmussen, Gun Runner – Red House, by Tapit)
He is another who ran a monster race in the Rebel Stakes coming from more than 19 lengths back to finish a strong second. Although he has won only one of his seven starts he has turned in strong stretch runs in six of them. He is the type of horse who is going to need racing luck, and I am still convinced he would have won the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes had he not gotten stopped in the stretch. And you sure can’t fault him for his second to Arabian Knight in the Southwest Stakes and third to Forte in the Breeders’ Futurity. In the Rebel his Thoro-Graph number improved from a 6 1/2 to a 3 3/4, so he is moving up the proverbial ladder to where he should be competitive against anybody. Being by Gun Runner, out of a Tapit mare, is pedigree is made up of two of the hottest sires in the country. I don’t think we have seen him anywhere near his best.
11—Geaux Rocket Ride (Dick Mandella, Candy Ride – Beyond Grace, by Uncle Mo)
As you may know by now I don’t like horses going into the Kentucky Derby with only three career starts, but it is becoming more and more of a reality with horses jumping into graded starts off one maiden sprint and running big. We saw it with Arabian Knight in the Southwest Stakes, we saw it in the Fountain of Youth Stakes with Mage, who had a troubled trip, and we saw it with this guy, who ran like a seasoned pro to finish second to Practical Move in the San Felipe Stakes. Coming off a six-furlong maiden score in 1:09 2/5, he tracked the pace, was floated a bit wide by Hejazi turning for home, cut back to the inside, and finished strongly, striding out beautifully in the final furlong. He certainly has thee pedigree to keep stretching out, and the only reason I am putting him ahead of Arabian Knight is that he is on a better schedule with better spacing between races. I don’t know whether they will face each other in the Santa Anita Derby, but I would expect another big move forward from Geaux Rocket Ride. After that he has to contend with history.
12—Arabian Knight (Tim Yakteen, Uncle Mo – Borealis Night, by Astrology)
At least we finally saw him back on the work tab, as he turned in a strong five-furlong drill in :59 1/5. As I mentioned I am still concerned about his unexplained break and lack of works and now having to wait a long time to have his final prep before going into the Kentucky Derby with one race in 14 weeks. With Practical Move winning the San Felipe impressively and likely headed to the Santa Anita Derby I’m not sure if Yakteen wants to run both colts against each other when Arabian Knight has already won impressively at Oaklawn Park and could return there for the Arkansas Derby where he might have a better shot at picking up much needed Derby points. Yes, he no doubt is a very talented colt, but he has a long road ahead to get to the Kentucky Derby with a legitimate shot to win. What he needs now is more sharp works like the one he just had.
13—Raise Cain (Ben Colebrook, Violence – Lemon Belle, by Lemon Drop Kid
I know the Gotham Stakes was set up for him with the fast early pace and the first three finishers coming from 11th, 13th, and 12th, respectively, but looking back at this colt’s races trying to figure out how he could not only win this race at 23-1, but crush his field by 7 1/2 lengths despite having to check while making a big run nearing the top of the stretch, I came to the conclusion he is a better horse than his record might indicate. First, throw out his first and last starts, both on a synthetic surface. He was brilliant breaking his maiden by 5 1/4 lengths going seven furlongs at Keeneland. Dropping back to six furlongs in the Bowmans Mill Stakes at Keeneland, he pressed the pace, then for no apparent reason he quickly dropped back to last and appeared to be out of the race completely. But he regrouped and came on again to finish third. He then finally stretched out to 1 1/16 miles in the Gun Runner Stakes at Fair Grounds, something he’d been crying out for with his stamina-laden pedigree. He showed good tactical speed, and despite racing a bit greenly in the stretch, shying from the whip, he still kept coming and was able to nose out a good horse in Determinedly for second behind the promising Jace’s Road, while boosting his Beyer figure from a 60 to an 81. Put back on a synthetic surface in the Leonatus Stakes, he was four to five wide on the first turn and was wide throughout before dropping back to fifth. Coming off the synthetic surface, he was a tiger in the Gotham, just as he was coming off the synthetic and romping in his maiden race.
14—Slip Mahoney (Brad Cox, Arrogate – Get Lucky, by A.P. Indy)
This is my big monster longshot Derby sleeper who I feel is going to be extremely tough in his next race. I have always been a big fan of this colt watching his back-to-back gutsy stretch battles, the first one a neck defeat to Tapit Trice. In both races he was battling for the lead throughout and would not back down. This was a fighter in the true sense of the word. But in the Gotham Stakes, his first race against winners, he was looking around at the break, getting off slowly, and quickly found himself dead-last in the 13-horse field, more than a dozen lengths off the lead and well behind the next to last horse. When he was asked for his run, he took off and was flying by horses out in the middle of the track. While the winner was able to save ground rallying along the inside, he was forced nine, possibly 10-wide turning for home. Never asked to do anything like this before, he still came charging down the middle of the track to get second, while the winner got through in the upper stretch and was long gone. I am still convinced this is a very good horse who will be heard from.
15—Angel of Empire (Brad Cox, Classic Empire – Armony’s Empire, by To Honor and Serve)
The quality of the Risen Star field is still in question, but he did win it and the runner-up Sun Thunder could turn out to be a nice horse who was ranked last week. Cox, despite some of is Derby horses running poorly, still has a boatload of them all over the place. This colt has won two one-mile races and a 1 1/8-mile race and was second in the one-mile Smarty Jones Stakes, so he has a lot of mileage under him and is as dead-fit as any of them. He just needs to get faster according to his 89 career-high Beyer figure. But his 2 1/2 Thoro-Graph number in the Risen Star was pretty fast and a huge jump from his previous race, so maybe he’s not as slow as some of his other figures might indicate. He did turn in a sharp half-mile drill in :48 3/5 over the weekend. Like many of the Fair Grounds horses he still has a lot to prove in his next start, likely the Louisiana Derby, against better quality horses.
KNOCKING ON THE DOOR
Because of all the activity this weekend had to put some former ranked horses like VERIFYING and SUN THUNDER on hold for now. But I don’t think any the less of them and expect both of them to be right back in the picture in their next start. The latter turned in a sharp half-mile work in :48 2/5.
With FUNTASTIC AGAIN skipping the John Battaglia Memorial, the race was won in explosive fashion by the 16-1 shot CONGRUENT, who came from dead-last in the 12-horse field to blow the race open in the stretch, winning by 3 1/2 lengths. The son of Tapit had done little in his previous four starts, the last three on the grass. That makes two impressive longshot stakes winners this past weekend who came off grass or synthetic. His biggest effort had been a 2 1/4-length victory in the off-the-grass Laurel Futurity run on a sloppy track.
Earlier in the week we had a monster performance from HENRY Q, who was coming off a three-quarters of a length maiden victory for Doug O’Neill and then was turned over to Todd Fincher, who saddled him to a 14 3/4-length romp in the Mine That Bird Derby at Sunland Park. We’ll see what they do next with the son of Blame.
Earlier I mentioned the fast early pace of the Gotham Stakes, in which they went in :22 2/5 and :45 2/5. That scorching pace took its toll on RECRUITER, CARMEL ROAD, and RADIO RED, who were battling up front before fading badly, beaten from 18 to 24 lengths, So what does that make the undefeated EYEING CLOVER, coming off two six-furlong races who was right in the thick of that battle and wound up finishing fourth? Yes, he was beaten nine lengths when the winner drew off to his big score, but Eyeing Clover was only a length back at the eighth pole and was beaten a nose for third by the late-running GENERAL BANKER and 1 1/2 lengths by Slip Mahoney for second. Yet another Brad Cox colt, keep an eye out for this son of Lookin At Lucky. He is another who is going to be extremely dangerous in his next start.
Earlier I mentioned MAGE, who was thrown into the Fountain of Youth Stakes against Forte and company off one seven-furlong maiden victory, which he won by almost four lengths in a sharp 1:22 2/5. The son of Good Magic ran a huge race on Saturday after a troubled trip to finish fourth and was right there with Forte turning for home. He never gave an inch and was battling to the end, beaten 2 1/4 lengths for second. We also have to acknowledge the big bounce-back performance by CYCLONE MISCHIEF following his dismal effort in the Holy Bull Stakes as the 6-5 favorite. The son of Into Mischief set all the pace and hung in there gamely to finish third at odds of 15-1.
The big disappointment over the weekend was the surprising no-show performance by BLAZING SEVENS, who never ran a lick.
It was good to see VICTORY FORMATION back on the work tab, going a half in :48 following his disappointing performance in the Risen Star Stakes. Also on the wok tab this week was the unbeaten KINGSBARNS, who went a half in :49 1/5 for the Louisiana Derby, where he will be joined by stablemate LITIGATE, winner of the Sam F. Davis Stakes. Both colts are trained by Todd Pletcher, who sent out maiden winner CLASSIC CATCH to score a workmanlike victory in a 1 1/8-mile allowance race at Gulfstream Park.
Racing historian, author, and award-winning retired journalist for the Daily Racing Form and The Blood-Horse, Steve Haskin was inducted into the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame’s Media Roll of Honor in 2016. Known for his racing knowledge and insightful prose, he has been an exclusive contributor to Secretariat.com since 2020.
Hey Steve,
Any word on Blazing Sevens? Where he might run next, etc?
David
I sure do need the bye week. I’m exhausted! Tapit Trice, on the other hand, looked anything but exhausted jogging back to the winner’s circle. He was energetic, full of himself, and taking in his surroundings. I love him!
Roberta, well done. Tapit Trice is a gorgeous racehorse and 10f is exactly what he needs to exploit his stamina, determination, and stride. If Tapit Trice actually makes it to the Derby, anything can happen, has a decent trip, then watch him mow down the opposition in the long straight at Churchill Downs.
Here in Australia next Saturday, around 5 pm, the Golden Slipper Stakes will be run at Rosehill, in Sydney. $5 million prize money for 2 year olds is nothing to sneeze at, $2.5 million for the winner. It’s on around 1am your time. The first race of the Sydney Triple Crown races for 2 year olds is followed by the ATC Sires Produce Stakes, then the Champagne Stakes.
The Australian Triple Crown races for 3 year olds are the Randwick Guineas, Rosehill Guineas, and the Australian Derby. The first leg Randwick Guineas was run March 4, won by Communist, the Rosehill Guineas is run this Saturday, March 18, and the Australian Derby is run in April, 2023. The 3 year old Triple Crown races are not in the same league in prize money as the 2 year old Triple Crown races. Odd, I know.
Anyway, Roberta, if you have nothing to do late Friday night, early Saturday morning, your time, here’s something to watch. Ha ha
Thank you, Davids. Tapit Trice is a gorgeous animal. I am so happy that I’ve been able to see him twice. Tapit Trice twice!
I will do my best to watch as much as I can of the Australian races. Thanks for the head’s up. That is certainly odd about the purses of the 2 year old races. I’m glad it’s not that way in the United States. So you have a horse there named Communist. Does he share the winnings with his losing opponents? Ha ha!
Roberta, did you check out the pedigree of Communist? You’ll smile. The breeding in Australia was always an oddity to me you had lightning fast 2 year olds running 6f for a massive purse or plodding geldings running 2 miles for a massive prize in the Melbourne Cup. The Classic 3 year old races were never in the same league of importance.
The 2 year old prep races for the Golden Slipper are run very similarly as the prep races for the Kentucky Derby with various states having major prep races leading up to the Golden Slipper.
Communist by Russian Revolution. Very cute. That name wouldn’t go over well in the US of A, though. Ha ha.
You have me researching the Australian races. Thanks!
So Arabian Knight goes back to Baffert, won’t be in the Derby, and has been taken out of the KDFW5 pool. Yet the DRF reports today, “Arabian Lion and Hejazi, two other horses recently transferred from Baffert to Yakteen, were returned to Baffert’s stable in recent days and therefore are no longer candidates for the Kentucky Derby.” Those two horses are still in the futures pool. What’s going on with that?
My Week 8 Derby Rankings, (March 13th)
1) Hit Show
2) Forte
3) Practical Move
4) Tapit Trice
5) Confidence Game
6) Angel of Empire
7) Reincarnate
8) Geaux Rocket Ride
9) Red Route One
10) Instant Coffee
11) Raise Cain
12) Two Eagles River
13) Litigate
14) National Treasure
15) Rocket Can
When a horse runs a fast debut race, and then in his first two turn effort runs a 96 Beyer….. you’d expect more fanfare, than Geaux Rocket Ride has received..but Mr Mandella likes his peace and quiet…..
If the fanfare includes the future wager, I would agree. I would have expected GRR to be closer to his 20-1 morning line. I guess Mandella and no stakes win just aren’t very [yxes*].
*I inverted the last word because, when I sent the reply a few moments ago, it went into “moderation.”
After my initial ‘garbage’ and ‘disrespectful’ thoughts about Tapit Trice’s win in the Tampa Derby Derby-it looks like I’m not the only one with the same thoughts…
David Aragona @HorseToWatch put out a poll…”Did today’s performance by Tapit Trice make you more or less likely to support him in the Kentucky Derby?”
871 votes
26.5% more likely
39.6 % no change
33.9% less likely
Where’s the analysis? It’s all just your opinion, based on who you like and want to win the Derby, and in this case, don’t like and don’t want to win.
How come if somebody isn’t that impressed with a horse you read into it they don’t want the horse to win?
It was hard not to notice the heavy sarcasm in those comments. Usually, that’s a sign the person doing the commenting is not the no. 1 fan of the horse/person/team they’re criticizing. I think his comments are over the top.
Again, Discopartner after giving congrats not once but twice to Tapit Trice, saying he earned the purse money and points given to this three year old and then saying he was a nice horse with a nice win….how in the world do you say I’d over the top….please get a grip on yourself….just read Andy Serling’s take on take on the race….I’m quite mello with my comments as just an opinion here on a blog rather than a national horseracing person.
Here’s a query? How many of these voters picked Rich Strike as the winner of the 2022 Kentucky Derby in March, 2022. I’d say about 0, people have opinions and that’s about it. Lol.
After being a G2 for 11 years, the Tampa Bay Derby was downgraded this year to a G3. I hadn’t noticed. In those 11 years, 20 TBD runners were in the Kentucky Derby. One hit the board: Tacitus.
The UAE Derby has been a G2 since 2002. Not one OTB finish in the Kentucky Derby in all those years.
I guess Tapit Trice has no chance, but if he moves to Keeneland and wins, then he will?
My comments were about the grading of races, not about TT. I like TT, for now. See previous comments. Or not.
So you were just providing information, not trying to make a point with that TBD stat?
I’m going to call the derby exacta on March 12.
Exacta Box – Forte & Raise Cain
Forte and Raise Cain share the same sire, (Violence), and their dam sides reflect a ton of stamina influence.
Yesterday, just for the hell of it, I placed a $40.00 win wager on Raise Cain, in Derby Futures Pool 5. Currently, he’s listed at 62-1, but those could change at the close of betting later today.
In addition, I boxed Raise Cain with Two Eagles River (99-1) in a $20.00 exacta wager. I hoping Two Eagles River shows up in the Arkansas Derby, and secures enough points to make the Derby starting gate. We’ll see.
Two Eagles River is listed a “possible” for the Arkansas Derby.
That’s the kind of odds you want in futures. Best of luck Bill.
For some reason, Raise Cain reminds me of Aptitude, who was my derby horse in 2000. Also finished second in the Belmont.
Thanks Demolition Derby
Good luck to you as well.
Arabian Knight off Derby Trail. Tim Yakteen did not like his last work and the connections feel he is a superior talent who needs more time to develop.
There goes the speed of the speed for the Derby. Now there’s a chance for a reasonable pace.
Yep, that 1.13.60 workout last week raised some eyebrows…it was good to hear Mr. Yakteem reach this decision and apparently stood his ground-reading between the lines.
And is going back to the Baffert barn this afternoon. Let’s hope Bob can sort him out. Very sorry we won’t see him in the Derby, but I am glad for the horse’s sake owners opted to take it slow.
Top 10*
1. Forte
2. Practical Move
3. Reincarnate
4. Angel of Empire
5. Hit Show
6. Tapit Trice
7. Instant Coffee
8. Rocket Can
9. Arabian Knight
10. Red Route One
*Subject to change … hourly
Red Route One – #9
Confidence Game – #10
LOL
Steve did you see the 6th race at Santa Anita today? First thing is I hadn’t noticed the great switch move to the rail, by Prat on Yellow Brick, but I was rewatching the very nice win by O Neil’s I Don’t Get It, 1:43 3/5 and it looked good, something tells me he’s going east for a prep….
Prepping for the Kentucky Derby??
It’s O’Neill and Reddam they’re going for the Derby! O’Neill has been quoted saying he avoids Bob, by racing on turf— he didn’t avoid anyone today, and his horse looked good.
1. The horse broke his maiden yesterday. March 11!!!
2. Nyquist and I’ll Have Another didn’t avoid anyone.
3. There was no colt to avoid yesterday. The ML favorite trained by Mandella had raced three times. The Baffert horse was not very promising.
4. This was IDGI’s third start. Nyquist and I’ll Have Another won their debuts.
Reddam has had others….I’m only saying he looked good, and they go for it….they won the Bluegrass with a maiden, if I’m not mistaken…..
Any other operation it wouldn’t be worth noting….but this is Reddam, the horse encountered much early trouble in his previous race and the bettors took note— he went off heavily favored, yesterday, over a good Mandella colt, and down the stretch he was looking like a nice three year old, and being out west any two year old not in Bob’s barn is noteworthy, especially a Reddam three year old…Reddam runs his horses….all I said was he looked good to me….
Are you thinking of Irap? He had raced seven times before his Blue Grass win. Not comparable. If you can come up with a similar circumstance for any previous Reddam/O’Neill horse to what you are suggesting for this one, I’d be happy to reconsider my opinion.
I re-read my post about yesterday’s 6th race, I can’t find what set you off, this is a Derby watch, Reddam has a nice three year old and BECAUSE it’s Reddam I thought it pertinent, is ALL I Am SAYING!
You can’t find what set me off because I wasn’t set off. I thought we were having a civil discussion. Shall we all just agree with everything that everyone says?
First, congrats to Tapit Trice for winning the Tampa Bay Derby….a win is a win, and purse money won is purse money won, and points earnerd is points earned….but I cannot believe this horse is a serious contender for the Kentucky Derby.
A 88 Beyer is circulated now for the TT’s win in the TBD….which is about 6 points more than I would give the the horse (in the low 80’s).
Others may think differently-which is their absolute right but this horse reminds me of Judger….a horse in 1971 that came from the clouds to finish in his races….looked like the perfect horse to win the KD….broke almost last in the Derby and was at least 20 lengths behind the leaders going into the first turn….finished 8th but a dozen or so lengths behind the winner.
Again, a nice horse with a nice win but didn’t….nah, I’ll leave that out….congrats to Tapit Trice.
I don’t think Forte is having nightmares tonight.
What a piece of garbage, shows total disrespect for the horse.
Take it easy this isn’t Twitter!
Tapit Trice looked great, watch out Kentucky Derby, TP could finish 1-2, with Forte first I profer. Skippy Longstocking is a splendid looking horse, is so proud, like Life Is Good was. Glad to see Shantisara win. Keep the wind and the rain at bay when you have these horses with the right stuff for smooth wins.
Tapit Trice was really slow in beating a bad field. 88 Beyer for those that follow that metric. He is not a major Derby contender in my opinion.
You toss a horse based on one “metric”? And BSF of all things? Why not wait until more reliable figures are reported–Thoro-Graph, Brisnet. Were you aware that his final 1/16th was 5 sec, or maybe 5 1/5?
That’s it Simon, the Churchill straight, the 10f Derby, all play into Tapit Trice’s advantage and his best weapon.
Tapir Trice is in trouble for the KD. Looks more like a Belmont horse if that. Pletcher put him in a wesk heat
Making predictions 2 months out from the Kentucky Derby are a guess really, the Blue Grass Stakes will provide much more clarity. Let’s wait until the major preps have been run before dismissing colts. Even then, the post positions are often impactful.
Well Andy Serkin did not like the way Tapit Trice broke on FS1, but he looked like the second coming of Native Dancer when he blew by the field in the stretch. I’m convinced he’s a wonderful horse.
Yes, Ms Blacktype, but Andy Serling hasn’t had a good word to say about any horse in forty years. Lol.
That’s true, Davids — he never speaks in positive terms! What did you think of Native D— er, Tapit Trice?
Ms Blacktype, Tapit Trice is still a work in progress. I watched his concentration at the start, he was focused then a horse nearby played up a bit, so he started looking left. Mandy Pope, when interviewed, said that when the bell goes off instead of blasting out Tapit Trice waits a step which is a habit that needs improving upon/rectifying. Nonetheless, the win didn’t disappoint me as you had an inexperienced colt in a new environment, off lasix, but had a good learning experience coming through the field then engulfing to win going away.
I wasn’t expecting a 10 length demolition – Tampa Bay is not Gulfstream Park – what I have always liked about Tapit Trice is the determination to win, no matter what. Not sure if Keeneland will be his friend but Churchill Downs should enable Tapit Trice to extend and extend down the stretch while the 10f is a plus***
Overall, Tapit Trice is now in the Kentucky Derby. Mission accomplished.
Well said, Davids. I saw the Mandy Pope interview also and took heart from it. And thanks for correcting Andy Serling’s name — I think I conflated it with the actor who plays Gollum in the Lord of the Rings movies. My early newspaper training — no misspelled names on pain of death — must be fading.
Ha ha Yes, misspellings are a sin but with Apple autocorrecting at will you are often caught out and you cringe. What impressed me most about Tapit Trice’s win was how he overcame the hiccups with grim determination to win.
Turn in your guild card. The actor is Andy Serkis! LOL
Congratulations to Kathleen O’Connell who just became the all-time winningest female trainer in North America with a win in race 6 at Tampa. I’ve been watching her horses run for decades now. She’s a superb trainer.
Yes, Roberta, and congratulations to Windy Hill Farm with Tapit Trice in the Tampa Bay Derby.
What a beautiful day in Oldsmar. In the 70°s, no clouds, and a light breeze. What a great crowd! Just now in the second race, a lot of money came down late for Shug’s Perform in a maiden route. My brother bet big, but that was before the late money. It’s going to be a great day!
Good luck Roberta!
Thanks, Bill. I’m hoping that Tapit Trice wins. But I’m suggesting to my brother to consider Classic Legacy to win and/or in an exacta with TT.
Roberta, Tampa Bay looks picture perfect. Enjoy the day, and win. Exciting day.
Thank you, Davids. It’s absolutely gorgeous here.
Trying to find value in this KDFW pool is difficult. They really screwed up in selecting entries. So many in there have almost no chance of getting to the Derby. Others that have a shot, like Slip Mahoney, weren’t selected. Twenty-three individual entries worked just fine. Now there are 39!!
I really like Angel of Empire, but not sure if he’s fair value at the current 31-1. Plenty of time to decide, though. The two 9f winners, AoE and Hit Show, were 30-1 in the ML. Hit Show is now at 24-1, which is too low for my taste. Reincarnate at 29-1 is tempting.
The Rodney Dangerfield of the crop continues to be Practical Move. After two straight G2 wins and an 8-1 ML, he’s at 18-1. His Pool 4 odds of 83-1 are looking might juicy!
Simon, do you have any ideas why Practical Move is 18 -1? Is it that the horse was rejected by Bob Baffert that plays into the odds?
I really don’t know, Davids. He’s 16-1 now. Tapit Trice, who has just a NW1x win, is 11-1. I didn’t know that PM was rejected by Baffert. True that PM hasn’t beaten any horses of proven quality, but he’s won two stakes races with authority. He has no control over which horses are entered. I expect that his odds will move closer to his ML by closing tomorrow. The SoCal scene is tough to figure.
Thanks Simon, in all seriousness has any colt really beaten another colt of merit to be a shoe-in. I always wait for the major preps before judging.
I agree completely about the difficulty in judging field quality at this point. I mentioned it to possibly explain PM’s lack of respect. Who knows? Anyway, he’s 10-1 now, the fourth choice.
I’ll try to answer that, Davids….people who liked Practical Move already got him at 89-1 already, 18-1 is chump change…..and there are reasons not to like him, by Practical Joke, the horse was tiring in his sprint races….on the other hand he has won all three route races, so he does much better running slower, he finishes really well, whdn he goes slower early…..he’s the type of horse that could get first run on the closers, and pose an elusive target! I don’t know who he has beaten but I saw them up close some real nice horse flesh—I wasn’t blown away by the Tampa field, the winner’s a nice colt but so far this year I’ve seen two or three nice ones, and two or three possible, very sparse—and it’s approaching the Ides of March…..
Thanks Matthew, you make some excellent points. True, the Practical Joke sire angle is a concern for Practical Move, just as Violence, as a sire of Forte, is a concern as well. The 4 Grade 1 winning sons of Violence in the US haven’t achieved this feat beyond 8.5 furlongs. The dams of Practical Move and Forte appear to offer an equal amount of stamina as each other. So it’s only a guess that these two colts will be formidable at 10f.
At least with Tapit Trice his sire has a gold standard for stamina as well as his dam sire so 10f doesn’t appear to hold any worries for Tapit Trice. Tapit Trice doesn’t have the experience of Forte or Practical Move. Let’s wait for the major preps before prejudgement and just enjoy the ride until then.
I love the Derby preps! Tapit Trice only got an 88 Beyer but deep closers are always at the mercy of pace, and he won! As long as he is finishing well he does not need another win, in the Bluegrass, he’s IN. …now its up to Todd, to keep the screws loose, until the big race! I heard Steve Byk was concerned with his deep closing efforts, saying how it may be too taxing—-I’m of the opposite of that spectrum, deep closers expend less energy because they are switched off most of the race!….
Yes, the Derby preps are an absolute joy. Win or lose. As you say, Tapit Trice isn’t as professional as Forte et al but Pletcher has 2 months to mold the obvious talent we’ll see how this is progressing in the Bluegrass Stakes or wherever the next start may be. I wouldn’t be concerned about Tapit Trice having taxing efforts in preps, it builds up stamina which the colt obviously thrives on and, as you say, closers switch off during a race. Nonetheless, if the colt starts appearing ‘thin’ in his next prep that would be a concern, too much stress, too soon. Pletcher is a master trainer so it’s his responsibility to keep a runner happy.
When you see a column posted in the next day or two on Secretariat’s early 1973 campaign as part of his 50th anniversary just know that there will be a Derby Rankings as well in its usual time slot.
Thanks Steve. Let’s hope that Tapit Trice cements his name as a real Derby threat by performing well in the Tampa Bay Derby.
If Arabian Knight makes the SA Derby and wins….as long as Practical Move runs well I still will like him….the SA Derby could become the prep with a punch!..
Matthew, how is the weather in Los Angeles? Heavy rain on Saturday? Best of luck.
It rained yesterday, clouds today with less rain, sunny tom and Monday—they may take off turf today….
Thanks Matthew, good luck.
Derby Futures Pool 5 opened today, with several horses listed at enticing odds.
Two Eagles River, never out of the money in 5 career (5: 2-2-1) opened at 80-1. On February 19th, he won a 100K AOC, going a mile in 1:37.10, blowing away Disarm by 4 open lengths, at Oaklawn Park. He recorded the last furlong in 12:16 seconds. I would think his connections will point him to the Arkansas Derby for his next start. His pedigree reflects speed on top with stamina on the bottom. Will Two Eagles River make the KD starting gate, he just might.
At 80-1 in Pool 5, a moderate win wager might be worth the risk. That’s why it’s called gambling.
Forte is a lock for the derby exacta, imo.
I’m looking forward to Raise Cain’s next start, possibly the Wood Memorial or the Blue Grass. He shares the same sire as Forte (Violence) and his dam side is inundated with stamina influence. He displayed an impressive turn of foot in his Gotham Stakes win, drawing off by 7 1/2 lengths, in the slop, no less. With 54 Derby points, he should make the Derby starting gate, if he stays healthy. Obviously, he hasn’t reached the level of Forte, but Raise Cain is certainly a colt to keep an eye on moving forward on the Derby trail. In addition to sharing the same sire as Forte, both colts could carry the large heart gene.
Forte’s broodmare sire, Blame was a likely carrier of the gene, who likely passed it on to Forte’s dam, Queen Carpline.
Raise Cain’s broodmare sire, Lemon Drop Kid was a likely carrier of the gene, who likely passed it on to Raise Cain’s dam, Lemon Belle. Just something to ponder regarding the X-Factor large-heart gene.
Now, for all you large heart disbelievers, this is your chance to hit me from all sides. 🙂
If…..the large heart gene is an X factor (your words)….and you can only say they “could” have the gene….why emphasize it at all, as a wagering angle? Can’t they test the horses, to see if they carry the gene? If Forte has this gene other horses do not….why was his auction price $110K, and not $3 million? I’m not “hitting you from all sides”, Bill, your post suggests there is zero room for discussion that’s not laced with malice aforthought—When I think of a horse’s heart I think about Medina Spirit, and his like who fended off challengers, I also think of Secretariat’s 22 lb actual heart organ, are they even weighing deceased Thoroughbred champion’s hearts? I’m asking you because I really don’t know….will the Racing Form start posting heart weights, if they could? Or perhaps the possibilities of the large heart gene, like a Tomlinson rating? Otherwise how can a player form an opinion, or as I like to say a wagering angle?..
Hi Mathew W
As a reminder, the X-Factor large-heart gene concept is a “theory”, no more, no less. You might consider reading the studies conducted by Dr. Frederic Fregin, an internationally renowned equine cardiologist. Marianna Haun conducted extensive studies on the large heart gene concept as well. Recently, Pedigree Analyst Laurie Ross posted extensive comments on Forte, stating, “Forte’s first four damsires are carriers of the large-heart gene and he colt’s performance suggests that he also does”.
You’re way off base by stating, “Bill, your post suggest there is zero room for discussion that’s not laced with malice aforthought”.
When I stated, “this is your chance to hit me from all sides” did you notice the happy face at the end of the sentence”.
I received a rather disparaging comment from one of the regulars on this site, for a past comment that I posted on the large-heart gene, and said that for his benefit.
Bottom line, feel free to dismiss the large-heart gene concept, that is certainly your right. However, for those of us that give the theory some degree of credence, give us that right as well.
BTW, when you suggest that the Racing Form should start posting heart weights, that would be next to impossible.
Have a good day Matthew W.
Bill I’m not dismissing your theory it’s unfortunate you took my post as dismissal! I am trying to understand it—a Dr says the four damsires carry the large heart gene…my question is if they can know who possesses the large heart gene why not tell us who those horses are….a general statement needs supporting details, I’m trying to figure out how the science can turn into wagering angles, I’m always looking for wagering angles!..
Matthew W
Pedigree Analyst, Laurie Ross, stated that Forte’s first four damsires carry the gene. Forte’s first four damsires are; Blame, Forestry, Seattle Slew and Fappiano. In theory, the large heart gene follows a zig-zag pattern, stallion to daughter, daughter to son, son to daughter, daughter to son and so on. In some cases, a double copy mare can pass the gene to her daughter, but in most cases the gene follows the son to daughter, daughter to son pattern.
As to the how the large heart gene impacts “wagering angles”, suffice to say, the jury is still out.
When I handicap a race, I factor in various criterion associated with each horse entered in any given race. If the large heart gene shows up on the dam side, I would factor it in as well.
Good luck Matthew W.
Bill, I have been studying pedigree for 17 years now. I do believe that the x-factor is an important tool, particularly in the classic races. The large heart gene does follow on a zig-zag pattern, but it is important to point out that the tail female line is very potent. Look at the pedigree of Weekend Surprise. There is absolutely no doubt that she is a double copy mare; all of her sons, including AP Indy, carry the gene. Double copy mares are extremely rare.
IMO Blame, Forestry, Seattle Slew and Fappiano may all carry the large heart gene; I’ll give them a 20 percent chance, which is not too bad. Now if you are looking for speed, Fappiano is a sire or sires.
Princequillo carries the largest heart gene, followed by War Admiral, Mahmoud, and Blue Larkspur.
The great foundation mares are LaTroienne, Plucky Liege, Selene, and Mahubah. La Troienne is the most famous and influential broodmare of the 20th Century and Mahubah produced the mighty Man O’War.
Go right to the source and ask the horse
He’ll give you the answer that you’ll endorse.
Matthew, just curious do you or any of the other handicappers on here factor in the speed gene?
In Derby Futures Pool 5, Raise Cain opened at 50-1.
I’ll play a $2.00 exacta box, using Raise Cain and Two Eagles River (80-1).
Don’t do it, Bill! Demolition Derby said that Forte is a lock for the exacta.
LOL
The term “lock” is taboo on this site. 🙂
FYI….Arabian Knight worked out today (five days after his last workout on Saturday)….1.13.2. On the face value it looks like the connections of this horse is getting him ready for a race soon….perhaps the SA or Arkansas Derby.
Kent just schooled them in the mile and a quarter turf feature at Santa Anita …I’d love to see him in the Derby, having won three— he is still a superior two-turn rider,,with a terrific sense of timing..
Say what you will about Kent Desormeaux but there are very few jockeys who have his touch of genius in major races nor the guile.
Xtra Heat passed, age 25….small filly who brought her speed wherever she ran….I did not know the 6 fur specialist was Eclipse Award winner, for 3yo fillies—she also won more black type stakes than any filly in the modern era–twenty five stakes! One more than Susan’s Girl, who was a few hundred lbs bigger….
That’s sad news, Matthew. Nearly every day now you read the passing of notable horses. If you know European and Australian horses from way back the sadness is somewhat magnified. Memories lost.
At least she lived a good long life! So many beautiful racehorses die young now, even when safely retired from the track. I love finding notes about horses on Pedigree Query who live to be 25 or 30 or even older.
Roberta, are all systems ‘go’ for Tampa Bay on Saturday? Perfect weather, full fields, excellent card, all that is missing is you and your girlfriends. Have a great time, the best of luck, and win!!
You betcha! It’ll be quite a relief to be out there in milder temps after suffering through record highs in the Miami/Ft Lauderdale area. I don’t think the Tampa area has been as bad. No girlfriends on my west coast excursions, just family if they chose to attend.
I am so excited about seeing Tapit Trice try stakes company for the first time. Looking over the PPs I see that 7 of the 12 entries are out of the maligned (ha ha) Sam Davis Stakes. That MUST be a record! Of those 7, the one I like the best is Classic Legacy. Maybe another longshot will do well after the failed blinkers experiment in the Holy Bull, that being Lord Miles. Saffie Joseph and Paco Lopez are doing very well at the meet.
Heading out tomorrow for the road trip! Enjoy the races, Davids, from the other side of the planet.
Yes, Roberta, you want Tapit Trice to perform well and throw his ‘hoof’ in the ring as a major contender. Thus far the impression is that he has the determination to overcome any obstacles that get in his way. Whisper Hill are playing things down so they must be confident.
Working out who Tapit Trice’s major danger is a guess, Classic Legacey and Groveland are more likely but Freedom Road is interesting at a price. Who knows? They’re either improving or retreating at this stage and the race is where you find out. Lol.
Summer may be finished here as the temperatures have dropped dramatically as we enter into Fall but often Melbourne has frequent Indian summers so it’s hard to tell. Still no rain which is a concern though, I’m hand watering every couple of days.
Have a great day at Tampa Bay and fingers crossed for Tapit Trice. Best of luck.
Thanks, Davids. Hope you get rain soon.
Japanese horse not going down “Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby” but coming to SoCal for the Santa Anita Derby.
Mandarin Hero, 4-for-5 on the NAR circuit in Japan….
Let’s see how many points he can gain.
I give them full marks for the ambition/trying but there are easier US Derby prep races to attempt than the Santa Anita Derby. Adds grist to the mill as well.
Maybe 10 points…if he lucks out with a five-horse field. The NAR is bush league. Santa Anita probably gave the connections an offer they couldn’t refuse.
It’s being reported Arabian Knight is breathing fire. He’s also is growing quite a bit apparently. He’s a legit beast and it will be interesting where he lands. Wonder if they will go for the Preakness and Met Mile double?
I think they’re still thinking Derby..
Arabian Knight worked 5 fur last Sat and 6 fur today…
Arabian Knight would be the favorite for the Arkansas Derby?
Last I read is that Bafteen is leaning toward the SA Derby for Arabian Knight and the Ark Derby for Reincarnate. AK wouldn’t have been moved if connections weren’t targeting the Ky Derby.
Simon,I fear there might be some very unhappy chappies when the dust settles in California.
Indeed. And soon to be a major motion picture.
Since we have some time until the longer distance prep races begin, which horse do you think will become the ‘Wise Guy’ horse this year? There seems to be one every year….For me, a wise guy horse is a horse that gets way over bet versus chances to win, not necessarily a bad horse or one that doesn’t belong, just too-liked and over bet…not sure there is one just yet…
Here is a possible one: Red Route One; currently 25-1 in futures, probably good to include in exacta/trifecta/superfectas, but not very likely to win? What will his odds likely be in Kentucky Derby?
My other possible is at too high odds currently, so does not qualify as ‘over bet’ but, Mage, maybe?
It’s misjudgement. Don’t blame the poor horse, it’s the bettors and handicappers who make a wiseguy horse. The hallmark is, they think only they see the particular appeal in a non favored horse, but many see the exact same thing.
Any answer is just a wild guess at this point. Remember Sweetnorthernsaint? He was somewhere around 10-1 in the ML and went off as the 5-1 favorite! Now that’s a wiseguy horse. Not too long ago we saw My Boy Jack bet down to 6-1 from a 30-1 ML. No way anyone could have predicted those two in early March.
Those are good ones! I remember Arazi..BC Juvenile was incredible.. .I think the surgery he had probably had something to do with Kentucky Detby performance.. I forgot about My Boy Jack!
Noble Causeway, Ten Most Wanted, and Saarland also come to mind as ‘wise guy’ horses.
The first two went off around their morning line, so I wouldn’t consider them as wise guy horses. To me, a wise guy horse is one that’s bet far beyond expectations. Saarland…definitely a WGH.
Simon, I just checked the 2005 chart for the Kentucky Derby and Noble Causeway was the 5th favorite and Ten Most Wanted was the third favorite in the 2003 Kentucky Derby chart.
Davids, Ten Most Wanted was the second favorite in the morning line. Noble Causeway was the fifth favorite in the ML. So you can’t say that “wise guys” moved the odds. They were bet as expected.
Simon, I was wrong the first time with Ten Most Wanted. Ten Most Wanted was actually the 4th favorite. Check out the Chart – odds to $1. Empire Maker – 2.50; Domestic Dispute – 4.00; Peace Rules – 6.30; Ten Most Wanted – 6.60.
I remember Empire Making and Peace Rules, both trained by Bobby Franklin, but Domestic Dispute I can’t remember.
You were correct the first time. Domestic Dispute was 44-1.
Yes, that’s what Wikipedia had, 44 -1, then I found this old greyed out chart from ‘somewhere in the musts of time’ website that had Domestic Dispute at 4.00. Lol. Laboring away on too much champagne. Ha ha
Good luck on Saturday.
Cheers, Davids!
Surgery and just one prep…in France.
Happy International Woman’s Day to all the women on the forum!
You are all awesome and never, ever let anyone tell you different.
Thanks Lynda and Happy International Women’s Day to you also.
Hear, hear! The men on the forum are pretty awesome too, but perhaps they already knew that.
Entries are in for the Tampa Bay Derby. A field of 12 with Tapit Trice breaking from the 6 stall. Don’t see anything in there that could pose a threat to Tapit Trice, but you never know in this game. I’m guessing TT will go off at even money.
Dewey, Tapit Trice has a good post in the Tampa Bay Derby and has looked impressive in all his starts thus far but Stakes races are something else altogether. I hope Tapit Trice romps it in because he appears to be a future star runner but the colt lacks experience and sometimes that catches up on then.
The weather forecast at Tampa Bay is for a beautiful day on Saturday so let’s hope no dark clouds ruin that perspective. Best of luck.
As this year is the 50th Anniversary of Secretariat’s Triple Crown victory, this year has the potential to be unique in the Run for The Roses (In the Oaks and in the Derby). This year, Claiborne’s Blame is the broodmare sire to both a young stallion (Forte) and a three year old filly (Wet Paint). Zenyatta’s nephew, Confidence Game, has enough points to gain entry to the Kentucky Derby. Dunkirk, is the broodmare sire to Tapit Trice. Rachel Alexandra’s grand daughter, Dreaming of Snow, has already beaten the 2 top 3 year old fillies Wonder Wheel and Julia Shining.
Oh my goodness. What is in store for everyone this year?
Indeed Terry…!
Some other interesting outcomes related to breeding and the Derby are:
Uncle Mo seeking his second Derby winner (with Arabian Knight, Kingbarns) or a win as broodmare sire with Instant Coffee or Geaux Rocket Ride.
Tapit attempting his first Derby as a sire (Tapit Trice, Kingbarns) or as broodmare sire (Hit Show, Red Route One, Disarm). Likewise Curlin with Skinner…
The incredible Afleet Alex looking to leave a legacy with his maternal grandson Practical Move… and don’t forget Candy Ride deserving a Derby champion as well.
It is also interesting seeing young stallions Gun Runner, Practical Joke, Bolt d’Oro, Justify, Good Magic and Arrogate* vying for supremacy this year.
Seems like a new generation of sires is ready to take the torch from Tapit, Into Mischief and Curlin…
Nelson, another interesting perspective is that, of the 15 that Steve Haskin has selected above, eight have the A. P. Indy line as their broodmare sire.
Thanks Nelson for your very informative pedigree analysis and insights.
I am not the best handicapper but I love the history and the pedigrees.
Oaks looks unusually weak this year…
Yes Matthew, the nomination of Hoosier Philly and Julia Shining for the Kentucky Derby looks extremely ambitious now.
The only filly I really thought belonged in the Derby was Winning Colors, who beat the boys in the SA Derby by ten lengths, then beat the boys in the 88 Derby—one of the strongest ever Derby fields…..Genuine Risk was genuine, but she was not an Amazon, like Winning Colors was, and the field she beat in the 1980 Derby was not exactly talent laden, Cal-breds ran a close 2nd and 3rd..
I was at Santa Anita for the SA Derby that Winning Colors won: when I saw how much larger she was, I figured she was going to win….Awesome
Yes, biggy, Winning Colors was built like a battleship.
Absolutely, totally agree, the only filly I’ve seen able to dish out the rough and tumble of the modern era Kentucky Derby was Winning Colors. Rags to Riches probably as well but the Belmont Stakes was a perfect race for her.
Mathew W
Checking out Dreaming of Snow. She beat Wonder Wheel and Julia Shining, the top two rated fillies, at Tampa Bay Downs. And she is from Jess’s Dream who is from Curlin and Rachel Alexandra.
It’s a pretty crazy year. Rachel Alexandra has a grand daughter running and Zenyatta has a nephew racing both headed to the Classics. Along with Blame as the sire and dam sire of several horses. And don’t forget a horse we haven’t heard from some time, Dunkirk.
Great post Terri.
We never know who the racing gods will smile down on!
Thanks Lynda. I originally didn’t find my post, so I posted again.
The upcoming Louisiana Derby (3-25) has several quality colts listed as possible/probable, which should insure a very competitive field. Lecomte Stakes winner, Instant Coffee, could go off as the favorite, but I look for Angel of Empire to take a lot of money as well. Red Route One could finally put it all together, and use that long stretch at the Fair Grounds to make a sustained closing drive to be right there at the wire. However, the horse that intrigues me the most is Todd Pletcher’s Kingsbarns. He could pull off the upset, IMO.
I’ll box up Taput Trice and Prairie Hawk, who encountered trouble in the Sam Davis..
Thanks Steve for doing all the research and analysis (pedigree and speed figures) in coming up with your list of the top stallions. Sorry for repeating myself, but I feel that something special is going to happen this year: it’s the 50th Anniversary of Secretariat’s Triple Crown. It’s highly unusual that two horses going to Kentucky for the Oaks and Derby that both have Blame as the broodmare sire: Wet Paint (filly) and Forte (stallion). It’s also unique that a 3 year old stallion related to Zenyatta, Confidence Game, also is in contention for the Kentucky Derby and has enough points to get in. Also, Rachel Alexandra and Curlin are the parents of Jess’s Dream the sire for the filly Dreaming of Snow. Dreaming of Snow is aiming for the Kentucky Oaks and has beaten the two top three year old fillies in the Suncoast Stakes at Tampa: Wonder Wheel and Julia Shining. And, Dunkirk, the broodmare sire for Tapit Trice, has his first three year old racing in the Classics.
What the heck is going on up in heaven? Are Penny Chennery, Jess Jackson, Bill Nack, Eddie Sweat, and their associates having a big party up in heaven this year? We shall see what will happen. But it won’t be an ordinary year with the Triple Crown Races for both sexes this year.
Re: colts that Steve ranked 14th and 15th.
It’s a shame that Slip Mahoney isn’t in the FW as an individual entry. There are several entries that have almost no chance of getting to the derby gate.
I’ve been taking a closer look at Angel of Empire. In the Risen Star, he showed a great deal of professionalism getting through and around horses, was never far back, was five wide on the second turn, closed nicely against a fairly quick pace (his early pace rating was surprisingly good considering he was almost 6 lengths behind after 4f), and his Thoro-graph and Brisnet numbers were very good. Since the Risen Star Stakes became 9f in the crazy covid year, it has produced the 2nd- and 3rd-place finishers in the ’21 and ’22 Derbies. Not too shabby!
Attn: Ms Blacktype
You were the very few that picked Congruent in the John Battaglia, he’s listed at 80-1 in Derby Futures Pool 5.
Go for it. 🙂
Nah, he won on synthetic and isn’t that fast. Wish I’d plunged on Practical Move at 83-1, however. Hindsight is 20-20.
Any sheets figures for the top five or so? Anyone know their heights? Thanks.
You hear trainers say everything has to go right to make it to the derby, so I agree with Steve about Arabian night. No one at the other sites (or in vegas) seem too concerned about Arabian night missing works or 9 weeks between southwest and possible Arkansas derby.
More beer for us, if you get my drift.
Forte is the legitimate chalk but I’m surprised Slip Mahoney was left out of Future Pool 5. That stellar breeding should pop at 9+ panels. Those two share the same La Troienne tail female family.
Hi Justin
Kentucky Derby Futures Pool 5 is set to open on March 10th and close on March 12th (6:00 pm, eastern time).
Just out of curiosity, where were you able to see the horses listed on Pool 5?
Thanks.
HRN. It’s strange that HRN has the odds before they’re up at the CD/Derby site.
Thanks Simon,
Yes, that is strange.
After winning the Los Al race as 4th choice…then going off 83-1in futures ..then winning the other day as 4th choice—a 2nd place finish in his final prep would insure 10, 12-1 odds, for the Derby—for Practical Move…
Hi Matthew;
Given the way he has been dismissed in his prior races, that would not surprise me at all!
Nice horse- has done nothing really wrong but i’ll pass on him for the derby where the waters are much deeper and his pedigree comes into play.
I get ya…after watching him tire, in his one turn races I expected his pedigree went into play going two turns, but he has drawn away both times, around two turns….and in both wins he was comng away late—pedigrees are important till theyre not, I’ve seen millions dollar pedigrees — including a half, to Super Saver running in 1000 yard races, at Los Al….
The Santa Anita Derby should settle any concerns on distance limitations. They inevitably run fast and Santa Anita, correct if I’m wrong, is a deep tiring track now. Will Cave Rock make the Santa Anita Derby?
I’m thinking if Bob and Pegram run Cave Rock in the SA Derby there would be some bad blood, with other horsemen and owners..
One of the interesting subplots running up to the Kentucky Derby. Does Cave Rock play spoiler?
I’ll bet $100 that he isn’t entered.
That could be a safe bet, but Cave Rock has to run somewhere if he’s going to run in the Preakness Stakes.
He qualifies for NW3X. .but Bob would need to fill it
Maybe Bob would put him in a 7 fur stakes v older…
The Lafayette Stakes or Lexington Stakes at Keeneland could be used as preps for the Preakness Stakes, then on to Pimlico to train there for the Preakness Stakes.
Hey Steve
Did you by any chance see SCOTLAND.S maiden win SAT at Gulfstream against a super tough field including a million dollar 3 yr old. He is one to put on your watch. To win first out against that field , it was super impressive.
YES, Mark I did see that impressive gelding Scotland. He was my pick,and I was so thrilled he showed them all up. His trip was a very rough one also. How can you not root for a chestnut gelding?!!! Why are you against Practical Move’s sire Practical Joke?
Unless I was the breeder…if I had a good gelding I’d skip the Derby altogether! It’s such a hard race!
Completely AGREE with you Matthew. It’s the most rough and tumble race of all.
Yes, Bonnie. The Kentucky Derby prep races are an absolute thrill but the Kentucky Derby itself is usually a travesty of a Classic race which is a real pity. The English 2,000 Guineas usually runs the same day as the Kentucky Derby and that’s the Classic I really look forward to. With the Kentucky Derby you hope and pray that riders and horses will all return unscathed by the experience.
Dirt, TWENTY horse field,three yr old colts …what could go wrong . EXACTLY , Matthew. Too many factors, can go awry sadly. And, I always hate the rain sloppy derby’s. Don’t feel it’s a legit outcome.
Bonnie, don’t forget King Charles III’s coronation is taking place at Westminster Abby on May 6, 2023 as well as the 2,000 Guineas on the Rowley Mile at Newmarket, so instead of watching all the ‘mudsling’ going on at Churchill Downs you’ll be able to tune into another kind of pomp and circumstance over the other side of the pond. Bourbon on one side and Champagne on the other side.
I’m not saying it’s not a great race, nor am I saying the best horse does not usually win—am saying it’s a HARD race, on a three year old, and save for the purse there’s nothing for a gelding— better to run in the many rich purse races in the Summer, a geldings career is a long career..
BREAKING NEWS
Brisnet figures from Saturday: Practical Move 102, Forte 103
PM had a 105 in the Los Al Futurity in December. Forte had a 100 in the BCJ in November.
Thanks, Simon.
Today, I read an interesting comment posted by Pedigree Analyst, Laurie Ross, stating the following; “Forte’s first four damsires are carriers of the large-heart gene, and the colt’s performance suggects that he also does”.
Lynda King and I received several disparaging comments for the very mention of the large-heart gene by one of the regulars on this site, which is certainly his right to express his opinion. However, I was delighted to read that Ms. Ross continues to give credance to the large-heart gene concept. There’s a possibility that my current top contender on the Derby trail, Hit Show, is a carrier of the gene as well. There are a few others, on this year’s Derby trail, that might carry the large-heart gene. They are; Disarm, Echo Again, First Defender, Kingsbarns, Lugan Knight, Tapit Trice, Two Eagles River, Red Route One and Raise Cain. Just something to ponder.
BTW, regarding Lugan Knight’s performance in the Gotham, just when he was making his move in the backstretch, his rider had to take up sharply to avoid contact, and lost all momentum from that point on. I’ll draw a line through that race, and will not give up on Lugan Knight moving forward on the Derby trail.
Hello Bill. Relative to your list of horses that may carry the large heart gene, Lugan Knight and Raise Cain have the best chance of carrying the gene. Raise Cain’s broodmare sire, Lemon Drop Kid may be a carrier. His 2nd dam, Lassie Dear is likely a double copy mare. The tail of Lugan Knight’s pedigree is inundated with stamina.
Of course, I haven’t looked at the pedigrees of all the horses in Steve’s list.
Thank you for supporting the large heart gene concept, you’re not alone.
I’ll stand by my post which listed the current 3 yr. olds that could carry the large heart gene.
Bill Dawson, Thanks for the supportive and positive comments about the pedigree analysis done of Forte by Laurie Ross.
Other horses also have the large heart gene including horses related to Secretariat and Kris S. Princequillo cared that gene.
And don’t forget that Blame and Ebby are also related to Kris S.
And Ebby’s son, Confidence Game, won in the slop.
You’re welcome Terri Z.
Confidence Game was my top choice going into the Rebel, because I was so impresssed with his pedigree, expecially on the dam side. His dam, Eblouissante (Ebby), is a half sister to Zenyatta, and Confidence Game’s 2nd dam, Vertigelux, could be a double carrier of the gene, in which case she could have passed it along to Ebby, and then on to Confidence Game.
Derby Futures Pool 5 is due to open this weekend, I plan on making a few $2.00 exacta p/w wagers. Using seperate tickets, I’ll key a few of my top contenders on top, with several bombers from the Mr. Prospector sire line underneath.
BTW, Hit Show remains my top choice on the Derby trail. However, he still needs more points to make the Derby starting gate.
Hopefully, he’ll secure the needed points in the Wood Memorial or the Blue Grass.
Good luck Terri Z.
Bill Dawson, I rarely make Derby Future Pool bets. I made that mistake with Quality Road who could not make the Derby due to quarter cracks.
The best of luck to you with the Futures.
Thanks Terri Z
It’s been said that Futures bets are for suckers, they may be right. But, I couldn’t resist placing a few bets in Pool 3 and 4 because of the hugh odds on Hit Show and Practical Move. In Pool 5 (on Saturday), I decided to place one bet.
I’ll box the two Candy Ride colts, Hit Show and Confidence Game, in a $50.00 exacta wager. The opening odds in Pool 5 are 30-1 on both colts. If Forte wins the Derby, so be it.
Good luck Terri Z.
Thanking you and wishing you the best of luck.
If it rains, Confidence Game will do well.
Great update, Steve….Getting interesting now with the longer distance races coming up. The following are your top 15, along with best odds at either Circa or Caesars. I think there are a few overlays: Hit Show and maybe Reincarnate. I think Practical Move at 18-1 is nice now that we saw what he did in the San Felipe. As we get closer to the Kentucky Derby, I am now trying to estimate what the horse’s odds will be in the Derby, versus what is available now. I remember I had much worse odds on my Country House futures than what he went off at in the Derby.
1. Forte 4-1 Underlay this far from Derby
2. Practical Move 18-1 will be much lower in Derby, in all likelyhood.
3. Tapit Trice 15-1
4. Hit Show. 60-1 I am planning on opening position this week.
5. Reincarnate 30-1 Overlay?
6. Instant Coffee 15-1
7. Rocket Can 40-1
8. Skinner 60-1
9. Confidence Game 35-1
10. Red Route One 25-1
11. Geaux Rocket Ride 30-1
12.Arabian Knight 9-1
13. Raise Caun 50-1
14. Slip Mahoney 75-1
15. Angel of Empire 50-1
Country House was never 83-1 like Practical Move was in the last Derby Futures pool?
I like your report here and agree with your overlays and your underlay.
Biggy, I have a difficult enough time estimating the odds the day before the Derby. But with two months left and the TB Derby Saturday, followed by all 6(?) of the major final preps, there are hundreds of scenarios to consider. I’ll guess this, though: If Forte wins the Florida Derby, he’ll be the favorite. Is that astute or what? 😉
Hi Simon;
You are really going out in a limb there, with that prediction!
I agree 100%….I will go out on a limb As well: I predict that if PM wins SA Derby, and Forte wins Florida Derby, Forte will be favored, and PM will be second choice!
Best of luck the rest if the way!
We’re both on target!
Simon, I’d put a caveat on Forte’s ‘win’ in the Florida Derby. As long as Forte wins the ‘right way’ in the Florida Derby he’ll be the favorite for the Kentucky Derby.
True that the kind of win will have an impact on his odds. But I think it’ll affect only the odds, not favoritism. Juvenile champ Essential Quality won the Blue Grass by a neck and went off as the 2.90-1 favorite.
Yes, agreed. Forte might not be as impressive in the Florida Derby as he was in the Fountain of Youth for various reasons but if Forte performs just as credibly in Florida Derby as he was in the Fountain of Youth, he’ll be ludicrous odds. Deserving but…
Hi Davids
If the Kentucky Derby was a typical race, I would agree with you that Forte would need to win the Florida Derby” the “right way” to remain the Kentucky Derby favorite.
Given that there are so many big-rollers who will be at Churchill Downs who will / do know little about horse racing – people who will only know which horse to bet by the media attention given a horse – I feel any victory by Forte will be enough to have his name on everyone’s lips prompting him to go off as favorite . . . whether deserved or not.
I hope you are having a good week.
greg (Fan of Damascus)
Hi Greg, you make an excellent point re: Forte, Kentucky Derby favoritism. You forget that correspondence within ‘Steve’s community’ is generally between seasoned handicappers or longtime racing fans. ‘We’ innately recognise when a horse has won within themselves, as opposed to a horse that just gets over the line, and that more distance only detracts from that horse’s future prospects. Sorry, about the long-windedness.
You’re right, any type of win by Forte in the Florida Derby will ensure his favoritism for the Kentucky Derby, deserved or not.
Hope you have good week as well, the weather here has fluctuated from 92 degrees on Saturday to a chilly, windy 52 today. I’m really looking forward to the Tampa Bay Derby as it has always been a favorite prep race but often the results can be quite perplexing finish. Tapit Trice should further stamp his credentials as a major threat but seeing is believing. Fingers crossed.
Thank you, Steve, for another great week of analysis. I watched all the replays, having missed the live races due to some time constraints, but even in the replays I found a few newbies to add to my watch list. Skinner is at the top of that list for me, along with your top three. And I also add Geau Rocket. I’m ready for some real Dreby Fever now!
Boy that was some good action, except as you noted for Blazing Sevens. I hope he’s alright, because that was such an unusual effort from him. On a good note I was really happy with Geaux Rocket Rides effort. He looked so little compared to the Muscle Beach bully Practical Move. Jeeppers PM looked huge and on the muscle. What is Yakteen putting in his feed bag? It looked like a homerun swing off between Sammy Sosa and Martin Short. Geaux RR needs to really hit the feed bag between now and the SA Derby.
Glad to see you back here again. You’re right about Practical Move he does look enormous and your analogy made me giggle. They all need feeding up io face PM in the Santa Anita Derby.
I got an up close look at all of them Hejazi looked biggest
That’s really interesting Matthew, from what I’d seen, internet, Hejazi didn’t come across as particularly large in proportion while Practical Move, as El Kabobg mentioned, came across as a man among boys. Color hue and various camera angles can distort things quit a bit on the internet. Thanks for the information.
I could be wrong, Practical Move did look good, he had popping out veins in the walking ring….Mr Fisk and Geaux Rocket Ride had dapples, which people like to say are a sign of fitness, Geaux had dapples all over his coat—the rail horse of Moger’s Chaos–something was scrawny up close—and the horse I looked at the most Skinner–was a but shorter to the withers, than most of them, with a muscled rear—I also noted Shirreffs employed four handlers, all around the horse, perhaps to keep him calm, which he was…Skinner also has an “intelligent eye”, when he stands he holds his head high, a famous Quarter Horse trainer told me he likes that as a sign of intelligence….
Speaking of horse size…I have not seen him up close, but I did get a good look at Rocket Can, on the video moniter— I wonder how heavy he is, he looked very scrawny to me….
Popping out veins??? That’s steroids. LOL
Needing four handlers would be a worry when it comes to the crazy crowds at Churchill Downs. Skinner reminds me of another horse but I can’t place that horse, Northern Dancer line I think. Sir Ivor, Bates Motel in a pedigree always brings a smile.
Glad you’re still here too. I’m always popping in and sometimes I only have time to read and not prognosticate on these precocious athletes. I’m trying to not formulate deep rooted opinions too soon. Great way to miss out on developing talent. The heart has no business clouding good judgement and honest handicapping.
That is too true. In my younger years the mind ruled so I was reasonably good at the art, now the heart controls so I bet on what I can lose. Ha ha Still ahead though. Good luck.
I’ve never seen a broader more massive chest on a horse, like Practical Move has, and the thing is …PM is also a late foal. That chest of his,is indeed eye catching!
So many intriguing and perceptive insights in this 7th ranking that I may be venturing into information overload. I agree that there’s a significant gap between the top 6 or so and the rest. I’m not concerned about possible distance limitations of Forte’s sire. Newgrange did win a G2 at 9f. (I realize that’s not much to go on.) The Florida Derby will tell us. Interesting that the two fastest 8.5f points races (at Los Al and SA) were both won by Practical Move. Both Forte and Practical Move have the tactical speed and late kick that wins Kentucky derbies. They’ve both done enough to date that a slight regression in the final prep will not be a problem. I can’t say that for a colt I like a lot, Rocket Can. He needs to make another step forward to be in the conversation in May. I love Tapit Trice, too, but he needs a huge effort against what seems like a modest group on Saturday in the TB Derby. Hit Show and Reincarnate are also in my top half dozen.
A couple of talented colts not on my list are Instant Coffee and Arabian Knight. I can’t think of a Derby winner that had a 3year old debut in January and next raced in one of the final preps. As Steve alluded to in the Practical Move paragraph, it’s a lot to ask of young horses facing the toughest and biggest field of their lives.
In regard to a possible super showdown of East vs West, let’s hope it’s reminiscent of 1989 and 1978 rather than many other “showdowns” that disappointed.
Edit: in my next to last paragraph: “…alluded to in the Instant Coffee and Arabian Knight paragraphs.”
Simon, an astute assessment and your suggestion that Forte and Practical Move may regress slightly in their next starts has credence. Todd Pletcher offered the ‘second start after a long layoff’ as a plausible reason for Charge It’s somewhat sluggish performance last Saturday. Who knows?
Let’s hope Tapit Trice fore-fills his promise in the Tampa Bay Derby but the race has a ‘crooked history’ over the years. Lol.
Thank you, Davids. About Tapit Trice, I’m comforted by the fact that 4 of the last 10 TB Derby winners were favorites despite some bombers also winning. At odds-on, TT must fore-fill his promise. 🙂
That’s right Simon, if Tapit Trice has trouble in the Tampa Bay Derby it’s going to get any easier. I do expect Tapit Trice to win but sometimes you get the oddest results in the Tampa Bay Derby. Pletcher appears extremely confident which is a bonus.
Yes Davids, they may regress, they are in the Derby now, and you don’t want to peak in the final prep!
Matthew, with the weather in California, the shifting of barns etc some of the ex-Baffert runners may have performed below par but Practical Move couldn’t have been more impressive.
Jumping the gun a bit but it’ll be interesting to see where Cave Rock is placed in preparation for the Preakness Stakes, if he makes the race.
Steve, thanks once again for pulling everything together and making sense of it all. While we momentarily have some clarity on where the 3YO picture stands (my list looks a lot like yours, with a few of the horses after the top two in different spots), the rollercoaster isn’t over yet.
Question for you: have you had a chance to see the races of Cairo and Perriere, the non-North American prospects for the Triple Crown? If you have, what is your impression?
Steve,
It’s been a while since my last visit here. Great analysis as usual. Have a sneaky feeling that the “other” Pletcher might be the horse to beat in the KD this year.
Forte’s display this past Saturday was a thing of beauty. However, there’s a nagging feeling about his inbred ability to run past 10f with equal energy distribution.
Yes, I have that same ‘niggling feeling’ you have about Forte. I remember last year you suggested Zandon might find 10f a stretch too far, which seemed a reasonable assumption. Impressive win by Forte on Saturday, but Gulfstream Park at 1 1/16 miles is not the same as 10f at Churchill Downs.
As for Tapit Trice, you may well be right but the Kentucky Derby is always a ‘pig in a poke,’ anything is liable to happen and it does. I know I’m not telling you anything new of course. Ha ha We’ll see as the prep distances increase.
To be fair to the Z, he was lightly raced yet finished third in the Kentucky Derby by just a length and a half as the third choice. The favorite finished second, the second favorite finished 12th, and the fourth choice finished 15th. Z did better than the other faves in that respect.
Simon, with Zandon he loomed large as a real threat in the Kentucky Derby and the Travers Stakes but the threat appeared to peter out just when you felt he would go on with it. Hopefully, as a four year old Zandon may be able to provide a stronger finish at 10f. Mind you, there aren’t too many 10f races left to compete in anyway, apart from the Breeders’ Cup Classic.
Davids, only one horse wins the Derby. Are the runners just behind him unsuited to the distance? All I’m saying is that Zandon ran a fine race, all things considered. The winner was a huge longshot that benefitted from an insane early pace, and the second horse was the favorite just 3/4 length ahead of Z.
Simon, you may have mistaken my meaning. I wanted Zandon to win the Kentucky Derby, the Travers Stakes, Pennsylvania Derby etc, just that last 100 yards just seemed to be his Achilles hoof. Let’s hope Zandon has a better 2023.
I hope so, too. I did understand what you said. I just look at the question a bit differently.
All good.
The winner did take advantage of the pace meltdown. However, even with the effort put forth by Zandon, he was never going to pass Epicenter.
Well, being not quite as good as Epicenter is pretty good.
Agree! Zandon in midstretch looked the winner, in the Derby, and he got 3rd….in the Travers at the very least it looked like he would pass Cyberknife, but he did not—suggests TURF,,where the kicks are shorter but faster. ..
I always thought Zandon looked a bit light last year. That, again, could be the internet but I expect Zandon to have put on quite a bit of weight over winter. You could be right about the turf as well.
Steve, thank you one again for preparing the list. All the time and effort is greatly appreciated.
Forte and Practical Move are at the top of my list to win the Derby. Baring something unforseen I see no reason that either one can win the Derby, (knock on wood that my saying that does not either horse). Others on my list include those on your list: Rocket Can, Skinner, Confidence Game, Red Route One, Geaux Rocket Ride, Raide Cain, and Angel of Empire…all subject to change of course.
Have a great weekend. Beautiful weather here this week, tulips, wisteria in bloom and dogwood has buds ready to bloom soon.
Edit: Baring something unforseen I see no reason why either one cannot win the Derby.
Love Forte and he has done no wrong but if there was a glitch he could be his father’s pedigree. Violence has not produced much going long. I like him, I like him a lot but I don’t think he has the Derby sewn up just yet. Practical Move sure looked good but his Daddy , Practical Joke was better at one turns shorter distances. Both of the two deserve to be where they are but i am going to look at little bit more for one down the list . I am going to travel down the list a bit and land at REINCARNATE as by DERBY HOPEFUL . ALL YOUR PICKS ARE WELL DESERVED.
SKINNER WAS 3RD STEVE
MY BAD Didnt read all the way thru
Steve, thanks as always for your terrific insights. I was excited to see you speak so well of Slip Mahoney. I’d never seen him run before, but he caught my eye in the post parade, so when he ran second, I took note.
Howgreatisnate deserves an honorable mention. In the Gotham, he stumbled badly at the brake; with his front legs underneath him, his face in the mud and the loss of his jockey, the horse gained his composure and went on to run a professional race all alone. When Raise Cain joined him in the stretch, Nate dug in and ran with him.
Howgreatisnate has the pedigree to be a star one day. The tail is inundated with stamina; he is definitely a router. With wins in four 6 furlong races, I hope he goes to the Wood if all is well with him.
Without his jockey, he was carrying less weight than horses who kept their riders. No wonder he “won”! Of course, for that reason, his effort can’t count. At least neither jockey nor horse nor anyone else was hurt.
Sarah, I certainly realize that without a jockey aboard, his effort cannot count. I just think it is very unusual for a loose horse to stay in the game and not disturb other horses. I just wanted everyone to know that his pedigree is indicative of brilliance on the track.
Thank you for your comment.
60 days to go to D-Day and another 1,000 feet to run. Forte and Practical move certainly look the part. Can’t find fault either. I still like a couple of closers. Funny thing I always thought my passion for racing came from at early age of watching Ben Hur and definitely the 64 Derby, but with a little segway with Slip Mahoney maybe it was from watching the Bowery Boys in “Crazy for Horses” when My Girl beats Tarzana by a tongue.
Mu top three….
1) Practical Move….appears the sky is the limit with this horse…went from a 88 Beyer in the Los Al Futurity to an even 100 in the San Felipe…was working lights out leading up to the SF…has never been out of the money in sixth starts….has taken another big step up.
2) Forte…gives you an honest day’s work for an honest day’s pay…the returning champ…now has won stakes in three different stakes….however it seemed to me there was a look of relief from the owners of this champ after winning the FOY after some pedestrian like works…98 Beyer which was a little down from his BC Juvenile number and also seems to be stalled in the 98, 99, and 100 range…has Forte reached his ceiling and plateaued…with see, but for now the favoite for the KD…and I stress for now.
3) Reincarnate…had all kinds of trouble in the Rebel…has every right to move past that race
On the bubble…Arabian Knight…resumed training Saturday and is listed second choice behind Forte in most future book odds.
Good top 3 fine sir. Right now there is nobody else worthy, agreed.
I agree whole heartedly with those picks. Great comments from Steve with Reincarnate. He seems to be tough ole