2023 Derby Rankings – Week 8
In addition to our take on the Tampa Bay Derby we have a number of changes to the rankings order with a focus this week on the various speed ratings to get an idea of how fast…or slow these horses are. Next week we will have to somehow plow though the annual dead March weekend with no stakes before the main attractions begin with the Louisiana Derby, the first of the 100-point races. In the meantime enjoy “Big Red’s March to the Derby,” my column on Secretariat’s winter and early spring races of 1973, and my first of several columns to celebrate the 50th anniversary of Big Red’s Triple Crown campaign. ~ Steve Haskin
Derby Rankings: March 13, 2023 – Week 8
By Steve Haskin
1—Forte (Todd Pletcher, Violence – Queen Caroline, by Blame)
Let’s start as always start with the Thoro-Graph figures, and Forte’s numbers may be very revealing in their lack of movement. In his final three races last year he got in order a 3 3/4, 2 3/4, and 2 1/2, which for a 2-year-old are consistently fast. Having only two starts before the Derby, there isn’t much time to get into the Derby-winning numbers you want to see. So Forte in the Fountain of Youth got another 2 1/2, which indicates he hasn’t shown any improvement numbers-wise from 2 to 3. While that may be true, let’s first take into account that we haven’t had any fast numbers from this crop and all Forte has to do is improve about a point in his final prep to put him in a good position to win the Derby, maybe not even that much. The same goes for his Beyer figs, which went from a 100 in the Breeders’ Cup to a 98, which doesn’t make him any faster than many of the others. However, his Brisnet figure for the Fountain of Youth improved from a 100 to a 103. He is the only 3-year-old to post three triple-digit Brisnet figures and his 103 is the fastest this year by a 3-year-old. If you are looking to beat him, the second and third-place finishers of the Fountain of Youth had slow Thoro-Graph numbers going into the race. All you want to see in his final prep is improve his speed figures just a bit and beat faster horses than he beat in the Fountain of Youth.
2—Practical Move (Tim Yakteen, Practical Joke – Ack Naughty, by Afleet Alex)
This colt’s big strength as a Derby horse is his mind. Barry Eisaman, who broke him and prepared him for the sale, said he never once made a mistake and was always a “quiet, sensible horse with a wonderful stride.” As for the chaos of the Derby, Eisaman said, “He couldn’t care less. You could drop him in the crowded paddock from a helicopter and he wouldn’t turn a hair.” So that’s one thing his connections won’t have to worry about. Like Forte, we have a top horse pairing up his career-high Thoro-Graph number in his first start at 3. Practical Move’s number was not as fast as Forte with a 3 3/4, which was his number in the Los Alamitos Futurity in his final start at 2. His improvement has been gradual with an 8 1/2 being the slowest he has ever run. He was far more advanced and battle-tested than the horses who finished second, third, and fourth in the San Felipe, so like Forte he should face tougher opponents in his final prep, likely the Santa Anita Derby. But are there tougher opponents in Southern California? He is the only 3-year-old with triple-digit numbers last out in both Beyer and Brisnet and also the only 3-year-old along with Forte with back-to-back triple-digit figures in his last two starts. In the San Felipe he was able to increase his Brisnet late pace figure from a career-high 94 to a lofty 107. So he does have a strong closing kick.
3—Tapit Trice (Todd Pletcher, Tapit – Danzatrice, by Dunkirk)
There certainly will be mixed feelings about his two-length victory in the Tampa Bay Derby as the 1-2 favorite, with most everyone expecting a blowout score over what looked to be a pretty weak field. And his 88 Beyer figure will surely be frowned upon by many. What he showed is that he is extremely talented and a powerhouse of a horse who still hasn’t figured it all out. He has a powerful engine, but it needs more torque to accelerate quicker from the start. He kept looking back and forth in the gate and when they broke he really did nothing wrong, breaking cleanly, but he lacked that pushbutton acceleration and before he and Luis Saez knew it they were dead last in the 12-horse field and dropping far back. Down the backstretch he was still last and you had to wonder if he was handling the track, which some horses don’t. He started to make a move between horses but then actually lost a little ground and his backers had to be in panic mode. He finally was able to find his best stride on the turn and began closing the gap, but still had a lot of ground to make up. He swung eight or nine wide and with his engine now fully revved up you knew there was no stopping him now. He came charging down the middle of the track picking off horses one by one and quickly drew clear. He has now won three straight, all in completely different ways. I still believe he is special, but he is fortunate there weren’t any top horses in this race. He still has a lot to learn and has one more race to be Derby ready.
4—Hit Show (Brad Cox, Candy Ride – Actress, by Tapit)
Nothing to do now but wait for the Wood Memorial on April 9 where he will try to win back-to-back 1 1/8-mile stakes. His Beyer and Brisnet speed figures are not going to blow you away with a career-high 91 Beyer and a solid career-high 96 Brisnet, but is Thoro-Graph pattern is arguably the strongest of any 3-year-old, going from a 12 3/4 to a 4 3/4 to a 2. Any expected “bounce” after such a gigantic jump not only didn’t happen he moved forward again with the 2, which is still the fastest number this year. While he is on a strong upward trajectory it does tell you something about this year’s crop of 3-year-olds when not a single colt has run faster than a 2 in the middle of March. With him, though, it is just where you want him, and he should appreciate the two-month layoff after running such a good number going a mile and an eighth. He has plenty of foundation and has proven he can run well at any distance and on any racetrack, having competed at Keeneland, Churchill Downs, Oaklawn Park, and Aqueduct. As for his stamina, he sure gets that from his sire and broodmare sire; his second dam is by two-time Santa Anita Handicap winner Milwaukee Brew; and of his dam’s four third generation sires, three of them won the Breeders’ Cup Classic.
5—Reincarnate (Tim Yakteen, Good Magic – Allanah, by Scat Daddy)
We have a tale of two horses with this colt or two tales of a horse, however you want to look at it. The first tale is about his speed figures, which may turn some people off, as they regressed all around in the Rebel Stakes. His Thoro-Graph number regressed from a 2 3/4 to a 4, his Beyer from a 95 to a 90, and his Brisnet from a 98 to a 92. The other tale is all about visuals and no horse has impressed me more visually than this colt. First let’s remember that he had no business finishing third in the Rebel considering to horrible trip he had and all he had to overcome. That he was able to shrug it all off and was running powerfully at the end says a lot about him. Remember that Verifying, the other horse who had trouble in the Rebel, also saw his speed figures regress. When Reincarnate had a good trip in the Sham his speed figures were as fast as any of them. Getting back to the visuals, this colt has such powerful strides, yet is so smooth he is a pleasure to watch. I loved his last work, a half in :47 4/5, and that Yakteen had him work by himself. The rider, not wanting to go too fast, kept looking down at his watch and was practically standing up in the saddle. He displayed that beautiful action in the final furlong and was really reaching out at the end. So forget the Rebel figures; this colt has all the tools.
6—Raise Cain (Ben Colebrook, Violence – Lemon Belle, by Lemon Drop Kid
I’ve gotten to really like this colt. He is an enigma considering how dominant he was in the Gotham Stakes at odds of 23-1 and having an up and down career before that race, but as we explained last week his races from a visual standpoint were much better than they looked in his past performances and his so-called downs were his career debut and two races on a synthetic track. To demonstrate those up and downs, on Thoro-Graph he jumped from a 21 to 7 3/4, then regressed badly to an 11 1/2, then jumped again to a 6 1/4, then regressed badly again to 12 1/4. So you would naturally expect another jump in the Gotham, despite the size of the field and facing much better horses. But his 7 1/2-length romp rallying from 11th far exceeded expectations with a monstrous jump to a 2, faster than Forte and Practical Joke and as fast as any 3-year-old this year. His Brisnet Late Pace figure also skyrocketed from an 86 to a 106. And he did that having a loose horse on his outside down the backstretch, having to check hard nearing the quarter pole, not changing leads until the sixteenth pole, and having the loose horse on his inside, running with him in the final furlong. His Beyer and Brisnet speed figures show the same extreme up and down pattern, and while his 90 in the Gotham on both figures is nowhere near as fast as his Thoro-Graph number he did jump 20 and 10 points, respectively, from his previous race.
7—Skinner (John Shirreffs, Curlin – Winding Way, by Malibu Moon)
Although he basically paired up his career-high Thoro-Graph number with a 4 1/2 in his maiden win and a 4 1/4 in the San Felipe, he had made an enormous leap from a 17 in his final start at 2, so pairing up such a huge jump was good. But with only one more start he would probably need about a two-point improvement to put himself in a position to have a legitimate shot at winning the Derby. Shirreffs said one of the major factors in the colt’s improvement was his new exercise rider’s ability to develop gears in the horse, which takes good hands; also to change his habit of grabbing the bit and pulling , which they are taught early, to not pulling and keeping his head down. His new rider also was able to keep his hands down on the colt and be able to hold him from running off. So it seems obvious that Skinner has passed Shirreffs 101 and has developed into a more tractable, professional horse over the winter, as we’ve seen in his two races this year.
8—Instant Coffee (Brad Cox, Bolt d’Oro – Follow No One, by Uncle Mo)
I know all horses are individuals and each one has their strengths and weaknesses, but looking at the Fair Grounds-based horses, most of them residing in the barn of Brad Cox, and the races they have run, I have to admit I find it difficult telling them apart. It seems as if Instant Coffee, Angel of Empire, Sun Thunder, Confidence Game, Tapit’s Conquest, and several others have become interchangeable. I won’t go so far as to use the word boring, but I’m waiting for some of these horses to do something exciting. As far as Instant Coffee in concerned, to be honest I can’t remember that much about him, not having seen him for so long. I know he is a closer and has run some big races following a cavalry charge of horses down the stretch, but he certainly is not considered brilliant by any means. When I see him I kinda see Angel of Empire, although he is a bit more accomplished. Don’t get me wrong, I am not saying this colt can’t win the Derby, even with his lack of racing in February and March; I just can’t get a feel for who he is and how good he is. It’s just been too long. He did work a solid five furlongs in 1:01, so at least he is progressing nicely for the Louisiana Derby, where hopefully he will tell us more about himself.
9—Geaux Rocket Ride (Dick Mandella, Candy Ride – Beyond Grace, by Uncle Mo)
As I have said many times I don’t like horses going into the Derby with only three lifetime starts, but in a year like this there is no reason not to move him up considering how strong he was in the San Felipe Stakes against the No. 2 ranked horse. That race wasn’t extremely fast on Thoro-Graph, but he at least improved from a 6 1/2 in his career debut to a 4 1/2, and he now has only one more race to take another step forward. However, his Beyer went from a 92 to a very respectable 96 and his Brisnet from a 97 to a 99, putting him right up there with the leaders. What I loved the most was that his Brisnet late pace figure went from a 93 to a 100 and his middle pace figures remained strong at 100 and 95, indicating he has a very high cruising speed and can maintain it throughout the race. Any horse can close fast running middle pace figures in the 70s, but when you’re putting in triple-digit closing figures off equally fast middle figs it means we’re talking about a serious horse who should keep improving as the distances stretch out. Mandella said he’s a very smart horse and that should help him overcome his lack of experience. You could see the maturity in the San Felipe when he ran like a seasoned pro in his first two-turn race.
10—Red Route One (Steve Asmussen, Gun Runner – Red House, by Tapit)
He breezed an easy half in :51 for the Louisiana Derby, which should draw a large field of horses whose trainers believe they are geared toward stamina and will appreciate the 1 3/16-mile distance. This colt definitely is one of those with his strong pedigree and powerful late kick. Of course a horse like him who comes from way out of it will need a lot of luck. His Thoro-Graph numbers improved from a 6 1/2 to a 3 3/4 in the Rebel and he just looks like a horse who is now coming into his own. Being by Gun Runner you would think he’d have more early speed, but he just is more comfortable laying back and making that one big run. I like that his Brisnet speed figures have progressed from a 72 to 82 to 90 to 94, and now he needs another move forward. What is interesting is that his best late pace figure of 104 came in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, the race I have been saying he would have won had he not gotten stopped in the stretch making a big run. With it all he still only got beat 1 1/2 lengths. If he can get a decent trip in the Louisiana Derby not be almost 20 lengths back as he was in the Rebel, I believe he will be charging down that long stretch.
11—Slip Mahoney (Brad Cox, Arrogate – Get Lucky, by A.P. Indy)
So let’s get this straight, Churchill Downs puts the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 6th, and 9th-place finishers of the Fountain of Youth and the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th-place finishers of the San Felipe in the Future Wager field, but leaves out the 2nd-place finisher of the Gotham, despite being a speed-type horse who broke slowly, dropped back to last of 13, a dozen lengths off the lead, and then rallied 10-wide to get second. What their reasoning was to leave him off a list that contains a number of highly questionable horses who have done nothing in stakes races is beyond me. What makes this all the more confusing is that not only did they leave him off they actually took him off after having him in the previous Future Wager despite having only a head maiden victory to his credit. Granted his Beyer speed figure was nothing to rave about in the Gotham, but because he was that far back and had to rally so far out in the middle of the track I wouldn’t take his slow Beyer figure too seriously. He did after all get a strong 3 on Thoro-Gaph when he broke his maiden in his previous start and made Tapit Trice run his guts out the race before, and his 5 Thoro-Graph number in the Gotham was actually pretty solid considering the horrible trip he had. It makes sense to expect a significant improvement in his next start with a decent trip and stretching out to two turns, which he should relish.
12—Confidence Game (Keith Desormeaux, Candy Ride – Eblouissante, by Bernardini)
I’m still waiting for him to work, as he hasn’t been seen since the Rebel Stakes. Like many of the Fair Grounds and Oaklawn 3-year-olds I simply can’t separate them because they haven’t stood out in any way and haven’t left much of an impression so far. He won the Rebel despite not changing leads, and what was the most impressive aspect of his race was that after five slow races on Thoro-Graph he improved to a 7 and then catapulted all the way to a 2. No 3-year-old has run faster this year, so maybe he is improving rapidly. Like with Instant Coffee he could be a very nice colt who is just coming into his own, but I need to see him again in one of the big preps and we’ll see if he can duplicate his Rebel victory on a fast track or even move forward off it. I actually was more impressed with the runner-up and third-place finisher, but I am keeping an open mind with him because he does have several things going for him. Right now I just want to see him work so we can at least tell how he came out of the Rebel.
13—Rocket Can (Bill Mott, Into Mischief – Tension, by Tapit)
One of the reasons I felt this colt was too slow to be considered a major Derby contender were his three straight Thoro-Graph numbers of 8, so not only wasn’t he improving he wasn’t improving off slow numbers. But his 4 in the Fountain of Youth brought a ray of hope that perhaps he has turned the corner and finally is getting within striking distance of the top horses. This was backed up by his Beyer and Thoro-Graph figures improving as well. Now the question is can he take another step forward in his final Derby prep. Yes, he was second to Forte in the Fountain of Youth, but there were no heavy hitters behind him. In fact, the third-place finisher was coming off a dreadful performance and the fourth-place finisher was coming off only one seven-furlong maiden race. So while he is moving in the right direction we will see if he has made enough progress to make an impact on his next race against a field that likely will be much deeper in talent.
14—Angel of Empire (Brad Cox, Classic Empire – Armony’s Empire, by To Honor and Serve)
Yes, I know I probably have him way too low, but after the top five horses I admit I don’t have a clue where to rank these horses, so I keep shuffling them around depending on where my mindset is at the time and who has impressed me. I’m just looking for horses that excite me, and while you can’t knock his victory in the Risen Star Stakes, this was another five-horse cavalry charge to the wire, in which he emerged at the end to win by a length. I could have just as easily put the runner-up Sun Thunder on here. The Thoro-Graph numbers for that race were more impressive than the race looked visually. Anyway, all these horses will sort themselves out in the Louisiana Derby and we’ll know a lot more about them. He did have an easy half-mile breeze in :50 1/5.
15—Verifying (Brad Cox, Justify – Diva Delite, by Repent)
This was a colt who looked to be on his way to big things until he was stopped, or at least slowed down, by a traffic jam in the upper stretch of the Rebel Stakes after tracking a very fast pace in the slop that killed off the speed and set it up for horses coming from the back of the pack. So while the first three finishers were storming home he was weaving inside and outside looking for an opening that came way too late. What was interesting was that despite his fourth-place finish as the 3-2 favorite, his 5 1/2 Thoro-Graph number was the same as he got winning a strong allowance race by 5 1/4 lengths the race before. He has now become a forgotten horse, even in his own barn, and you could have gotten him at an enticing 50-1 in the Future Wager. All we can do now is wait to see if he can get back on track in the Arkansas Derby.
KNOCKING ON THE DOOR
It came as no surprise to hear ARABIAN KNIGHT is off the Derby trail. Things never felt right with him getting to the Derby with a big shot to win off only three spread out races. His campaign had too many holes in it and periods of inactivity when he should have been running or at least in serious training. As everyone knows by now he has been taken off the Derby trail by Tim Yakteen, who wasn’t happy with his last work. With some time off to regroup he hopefully will be back again and ready to resume what has been a very brief, but brilliant career.
The first of the 100-point stakes, the 1 3/16-mile Louisiana Derby on March 25 is shaping up as the deepest, most wide-open race of the year with the likes of Instant Coffee, Angel of Empire, Litigate, Red Route One, Kingsbarns, Sun Thunder, Curly Jack, Shopper’s Revenge, Tapit’s Conquest, and Denington among others heading in that direction. Brad Cox has an amazing six possible starters, but two of them, Jace’s Road and Victory Formation, both looking to bounce back from poor efforts, could join stablemate Verifying in the Arkansas Derby. One thing is for sure, this race will eliminate a lot of pretenders. Right now we really can’t tell the pretenders from the contenders. Any one of the above horses could win and it wouldn’t be a surprise.
The same day, the UAE Derby could have two or three foreign entrants with designs on the Kentucky Derby. DERMA SOTOGAKE, who has defeated Perriere and was a fast-closing third in the Saudi Derby, and Hyacinth Stakes winner PERRIERE, both from Japan, are very dangerous considering how successful the Japanese horses have been worldwide. Another strong Japanese colt, MANDARIN HERO, winner of four of his five career starts is pointing to the Santa Anita Derby, where he could really upset the proverbial apple cart in California with a victory. I’m wondering how Churchill Downs will really embrace a Japanese horse coming here and possibly embarrassing the best 3-year-olds in America. It’s probably going to happen one year.
While on the subject of foreign horses, Aidan O’Brien could have a live one in CAIRO, a son of Quality Road, who won the one-mile Patton Stakes over the all-weather track at Dundalk by two lengths, following up his equally impressive victory in a group 3 race at Leopardstown on the grass. Stay tuned on Wednesday for the Road to the Kentucky Derby Condition Stakes at Kempton in England where the first five finishers will be awarded Derby points with 20 points to the winner.
Although CAVE ROCK is not Derby bound and is remaining with Baffert to point for the Preakness, he could be a major thorn in the side of the Derby horses he meets along the way, as indicated by the blistering works he’s been turning in, the latest being a bullet :58 2/5 drill, which followed a :58 4/5 work the week before. Hell hath no fury like a Baffert scorned.
TWO PHIL’S, second in the LeComte Stakes and third in the Risen Star Stakes, will bid farewell to New Orleans and head to the synthetic surface in the Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Park.
There is still a slim chance for a two-turn maiden winner to bounce back with a big effort in a major prep, and we had a parade of maiden races on Saturday. At Tampa Bay, the Shug McGaughey-trained PERFORM, a son of Good Magic, put in a powerful run to win going away by 2 1/2 lengths under a hand ride, covering the mile and 40 yards in a solid 1:40 1/5, with Todd Pletcher horses finishing second and third. At Gulfstream Park the 23-1 first-time starter EMPIRESTRIKESFAST, trained by Bill Mott, came again at the head of the stretch to upset the 1-5 favorite DREAMLIKE by three-quarters of a length in 1:44 flat for the 1 1/16 miles. Dreamlike, trained by Pletcher, finished 8 1/4 lengths ahead of the third horse.
At Oaklawn, in the first division going a mile, Wayne Lukas sent out MAJOR BLUE to a wire-to-wire victory leading every step of the way to win by three-quarters of a length in 1:39 as the 2-1 favorite. But if you were looking for something explosive I doubt you’ve seen a more explosive victory than the one turned in by 12-1 shot INTERLOCK EMPIRE, a gray son of Classic Empire who came from 10th, 13 lengths back, and unleashed a devastating turn of foot, blowing by horses on the turn to be right up with the leaders at the head of the stretch. He quickly drew off to five-length victory for Kenny McPeek without changing leads until midstretch. McPeek isn’t wasting any time with this colt and will run him next in the Arkansas Derby, where he will join stablemate MENDELSSOHN MARCH, one of the more fascinating prospects we’ve seen this year. In his debut at Fair Grounds over the grass he led most of the race and then dug deep when several horses came charging up to him in the stretch. He battled one of them to the wire, and although he fell a nose short, the winner came in on him sharply and he was put up on a disqualification. He then went to Oaklawn for a 1 1/16-mile allowance race in the slop. Trapped behind horses the whole way he finally got though along the rail in midstretch when the leader came in on him, causing him to either brush the rail or come close to it. That really set him off and he squeezed through, surging to the front, and then drew clear to win by 1 1/2-lengths while drifting as far away from the rail as he could get. This colt is bred to run all day and if he handles a fast track like he did the grass and slop who knows what he’s capable of.
Finally, at Santa Anita, Doug O’Neill sent out I DON’T GET IT to score a three-quarters of a length victory as the even-money favorite in a game performance. He has improved with every race and in his previous start he ran a decent fourth behind Skinner after stumbling very badly at the start. Give him credit for rebounding off that and breaking cleanly before going on to victory.
At Fair Grounds, SUN THUNDER, who we had ranked two weeks ago, turned in a five-furlong work in 1:01 1/5 for the Louisiana Derby. He is one horse I regret having dropped from the rankings, but I am still hopeful he will run a strong race and take another big step forward, as he did in the Risen Star. I just wish he could have sustained his run a little farther, but was just one-paced in the final furlong after a ground-saving trip. At 92-1 in the Future Wager I would take a shot and put a few bucks on him because I have no idea what is ceiling is, but I feel there is more improvement in him.
Also at Fair Grounds, the promising DISARM turned in a sharp five-furlong work in 1:01 in preparation for the Arkansas Derby, unless he gets re-routed to the Blue Grass Stakes. I still really like this colt and he should move way forward off his return race following a long layoff. It’s just a question of whether he has enough time to be a force in the Derby. If he had one more race he definitely would be a horse to watch on the first Saturday in May. We’ll just have to see how much progress he makes in his next start against more seasoned and quality horses. He did take some late money in the Future Wager, going from 99-1 to 79-1; still a potential overlay if he is the horse we always thought he was.
The steady NATIONAL TREASURE has returned to light training after missing the San Felipe with a foot bruise. He does have a good foundation under him and the hope is they can get a final prep in him before the Derby. Tim Yakteen said he won’t commit to any plans until the colt works.
Shug McGaughy said Swale Stakes winner GENERAL JIM will return to the track Monday after being scratched from the Fountain of Youth Stakes with a cough and will now be kept at one turn with the Pat Day Mile a possible target.
Remember the highly promising Godolphin colt BANISHING, who fired a dud at even money in a February 18 allowance race following a stunning 8 1/2-length maiden victory? Well, he has finally returned to the work tab, and in a big way, drilling a half in :47 4/5. The Derby obviously is out, so we’ll see where he winds up.
Racing historian, author, and award-winning retired journalist for the Daily Racing Form and The Blood-Horse, Steve Haskin was inducted into the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame’s Media Roll of Honor in 2016. Known for his racing knowledge and insightful prose, he has been an exclusive contributor to Secretariat.com since 2020.
Mandarin Star arrives at Santa Anita Mar 29th…..is 4 for 5, with a fast closing 2nd, in his 3yo debut….will be utilizing a local rider…. if he qualifies he will be legit, Santa Anita Derby will have the one/two/three from the San Felipe, which was run in 1:42 flat…..
Update! I think I am wrong, about that time —that was the Los Al Futurity time, that track is faster.
Hi Matthew W — I think you mean Mandarin HERO. Good to know he’s on his way.
Mandarin Hero, is from Shangai Bobby, another American racehorse that has sired to multiple stakes winnners ala Sunday Silence….will probably need to finish in the top three of the SA Derby to qualify for the KD Derby.
Mandarin Hero’s trainer Terunobo Fujitia would be the first Japanese trainer from the Japan’s National Association of Racing to start a horse in the Kentucky Derby….was at Santa Anita recently to get an ‘understanding’ of the track.
Mandarin Hero could conceivably finish 4th by 20 lengths in a 5-horse field and still have enough points to get in the Derby. That doesn’t make him legit; that is, if legit means he’s a reasonable contender for a Derby win.
I think he would need a 2nd place finish
National Treasure has been working well, per Ron Anderson this AM they are looking at The Bluegrass…
Regarding the upcoming Louisiana Derby, the only horse that has a chance of beating Instant Coffee is Kingsbarns, IMO.
Disarm was no match for Two Eagles River, last out, in a one mile 100K OC at Oaklawn Park. I couldn’t pass up laying down a $40.00 win bet on Two Eagles River, in Futures Pool 5, at 270-1. In addition, I boxed TER with Raise Cain (66-1), in a $20.00 exacta wager. Two Eagles River is set to run in the Arkansas Derby, on April 1st. Fingers crossed.
C’mon, Bill. The other 10 horses don’t have a chance?
Nope. 🙂
Steve take a look at today’s Santa Anita 6th…. way too late for the Derby, but—Tahoe Sunrise refused to be passed by a good horse, even after the pull-up…..set all the fractions, but what I wanted you to see was his low action, which is lower than Snow Chief or A P Indy, I can’t recall a lower action!..
I noticed Forte keeps his head pretty low, is good at sticking out his neck at the end too.
I love a low action, on a two turn horse!
Congrats to Last Samurai winning The Essex Stakes at Oaklawn. Classic Causeway takes 2nd after long layoff since last October. So enjoy seeing these older horses racing.
It was great to see Confidence Game back working at the Fair Grounds, breezing 4 furlongs in 50.00 flat, 24/39.
Also, Hit Show breezed 5 furlongs in 1:01.00, 4/31, at the Fair Grounds. All systems on go for the Arkansas Derby or the Wood for Hit Show. It remains unclear where Desormeaux will point Confidence Game, but the Arkansas Derby seems most likely. We’ll see.
Hi Steve – Great draws for Disarm at PP5 and Kingsbarns at PP6 in the LA Derby. I love that Joel Rosario is on Disarm. We all know how well Rosario did on Epicenter last year. And Zandon’s old jockey Flavian Prat will ride Kingsbarns. These are two of my KDFW horses. Kingsbarns is tactical and should sit a good trip. Disarm should be midpack and save ground. Hoping those 2 fire a big shot to get points and get into the KY Derby. I really like both horses and really like both of their chances at a price in the LA Derby and got great odds on both in the KDFW.
Ca-ching!..
Roberta, the races at Rosehill racing will begin in about 30 minutes. Good luck. Sunny day in Sydney with a maximum of 86. Enjoy the races.
Thanks, Davids. I’m watching! In race 1, I like Rocstar Boy. I have no idea what I’m doing. Ha ha!
Ha ha Roberta, oh, well, it’s all good fun. Cylinder was a decent second to Shinzo. Hope you enjoyed the races. They race differently down here. I’m off to see “Don Quixote” which is quite appropriate really. Good night, sleep well.
In a race that will be early-speed challenged, perhaps Jace’s Road will steal the La Derby in the same way he won the Gun Runner Stakes at FG in December (when he beat Raise Cain by 5.5 lengths). His only bad races have been in the slop.
Looking at the Louisiana Derby field, it’s an absolute guess and nothing would surprise. Weather conditions might be the decider.
I despise off tracks on the Derby trail…and in the Derby.
We could be in luck, Friday and Sunday are predicted to be rainy but Saturday is supposed to be sunny. Fingers crossed.
Been watching videos of Japanese horses arriving in Dubai.
Just gorgeous creatures, all beautifully conditioned!
Airtime is a possible for Arkansas Derby. Bred by Gary and Mary West. Supposedly claimed and sent to a new trainer.
It was good to see National Treasure have an offical work on 3-14, going 6 furlongs in a swift 1:11.80, (1/4)
The big question, where will Tim Yakteen point NT for his next start? In an effort to avoid running NT against Practical Move in the Santa Anita Derby, I’m thinking he’ll ship NT to Oaklawn Park for the Arkansas Derby. Obviously, the owners will have their input on the decision, which will put a lot of pressure on Yaktenn Stay tuned.
Where does Reincarnate go?
Good question Steve, both colts, (Reincarnate and National Treasure) are owned by the same ownership group, Starlight Racing and all the rest that are listed as owners. Possibly, Reincarnate ships out, and National Treasure stays home for the SA Derby.
You’re much more informed on this type of issue, so what is your gut feeling here?
Thanks Steve.
National Treasure is listed as a “possible” for the Santa Anita Derby. Reincarnate is listed as a “probable” for the Arkansas Derby.
BTW, the Arkansas Derby appears to be one of the toughest fields for a Derby prep race we’ve seen so far on the Derby trail, IMO.
The $3.55 million dollar colt, Hejazi, is the latest to drop off the Derby Trail, no surprise there.
Still holding out hope that Confidence Game will overcome his latest setback, and move forward on the Derby trail.
Bill, no real surprise he has been returned to Baffert. Hejazi has not worked in a month. Like Steve said earlier, something is up when these horses are not working.
Yes indeed, not working is a red flag.
In an earlier comment, you mentioned Airtime is a possible for the Arkansas Derby, for new owner, Randy Howg.
Needless to say, Gary and Mary West probably regret entering Airtime in that 50K O/C on 1-29, going a mile in 1:38.02, drawing off by 10 1/4 lengths for the win, (when he was claimed by Howg).
Gary and Mary West still have a top colt in Hit Show, who is listed as a possible for the Arkansas Derby which could provide an interesting match up against Airtime, if both colts are entered.
Bill, I am guessing that Arabian Lion is no longer on the Derby Trail as well. It was reported on another site awhile back that he had a quarter crack. Equibase shows he is now on the work tab but Baffert is listed as trainer, maybe he was not transferred to Tim or if he was, he is now back with Bob. Has to be somewhat of a disappointment to Mr Zedan that with 3 very expensive colts, none of the three will make it to the Derby. Did not see any future races for Arabian Lion either.
Have not checked on Taiba.
The Wests have been very successful breeders and campaigned a number of successful, champion horses.
Not familiar with the new owner or trainer or owner for Airtime.
I just read an interesting fact about Todd Pletcher and the Derby. He’s had two winners in 22 runnings of the Derby, from a total of 62 runners. The interesting fact is that he’s had only one Derby favorite: Always Dreaming, the 9-2 winner of the 2017 Derby.
As I’m posting this, Smile Happy has won his comeback allowance race at Oaklawn.
Yes, Simon, it was pleasing to see Smile Happy come back winner.
Nice Dozen as usual with good analysis.
As of now, I see only 4 with a winning chance:
1. Forte
2. Practical Move
3. Reincarnate
4. Graux Rocket Ride.
Bingo- hit the nail on the head!
It’s getting hard keeping up with the horses dropping off the Derby trail, the latest being Litigate, General Jim, Arabian Knight and now Confidence Game may be dropping out. Stay tuned for more. 🙁
I’m disappointed that Confidence Game may be dropping out. He definitely has the right stuff, pedigree wise. Since his dam is a half-sister to Zenyatta, perhaps CG needs more time to develop.
Yesterdy, 3-18, Confidence Game breezed 4 Furlongs in 50:00, (24/30) at the Fair Grounds.
Evidently, he just had a minor issue, and is back working. Good to see that.
Edit to say, today 3-18
Hi Steve – The moment of truth is coming soon for Disarm. Steve A. is sending him to the LA Derby. Disarm recently had a 6F work in preparation for the LA Derby at 1 3/16. He will need an in the money effort to get in the KY Derby because he has no points. There are no world beaters in this race , so I believe Disarm should have a good chance to get those points. Instant Coffee will be the FAV, but he is coming off of a layoff and may not be sharp for this one. I’m hoping KingsBarns runs well along with Disarm because these are 2 of my KDFW horses. KingsBarns is tactical and should have a big win chance IMO. I like the move to run Disarm at the FG because he has been steadily training there. What’s your opinion of Disarm running in the LA Derby Steve? Maybe you can sneak him back in your rankings after the PP for the LA Derby come out Saturday. I know you have been very high on Disarm from the get go Steve, and I hope we see a big effort from him in the LA Derby.
I thought his Oaklawn race was real good, Oaklawn is not an easy track to ship in and win, and it was a two turn race where the speed finished up fast, which usually means the pace was soft— I like Disarm!
Thats going to be a tough race; very deep and a big field. Its going to be make or break for a lot of them. And the distance will be testing. The big question is whether hes ready to go that far in a big field off the one allowance race.I think talent-wise he’s good enough. I would hate to see him run a good fourth or fifth and have no more shots to make the Derby unless the Lexington can help.
More than any horse, Steve, Disarm will be primed for this race because he has zero points. Had he come back one turn I’d say no, but….he chased a fast horse home, shipping in and I agree with you Steve he is good enough…
Hi Matthew : I agree and believe Disarm will fire a big shot in the LA Derby. This will be an exciting race for me because I bet Disarm and the talented KingsBarns in the KDFW pools. I would love both of them to finish 3rd or better to get those derby points. I’m not sold on Instant Coffee , who will be the FAV, coming off of the layoff. Disarm is a heavy horse and it takes awhile to get his engine going. In the allowance at OP he tracked the loose on the lead leader from 3rd most of the way and briefly went to fifth. When Santana asked him to run he took a few strides then quickly gobbled up ground with his powerful stride to get 2nd going away. It will be interesting to see who rides him in the LA Derby. I’m sure Steve A will pick a good one because if Disarm shines then this could be that lucky jockeys derby mount. I like the stretch out in distance, the longer the better for Disarm.
I share yours and Steve’s enthusiasm for this horse! His numbers are on the lite side, all the more better for a price—We’ll be wagering on the come, as it were—I just think Disarm is packing a big effort! It seems to me homebreds ger a little more patience, they have been patient with this one! Now it’s put-up time, like you said no world beaters, I do like Instant Coffee but will probably put up a wps wager on Disarm!..
To Steve Haskin– I just heard on Fan Duel TV that Keith Desormeaux has temporarily put the brakes on works for Confidence Game; he didn’t like how he looked after he traveled back to his home barn. He is a rangy big colt who is still maturing, growing, and developing. I was unable to find any confirmation of this at this time. Thanks for your wonderful assessments of all of this wonderful colts.
DRF reported it a week ago. Definitely not a good sign for the Derby.
When Derby horses miss works there is a reason.
Is there anyone out there that can confirm Dubyuhnell is off the Derby trail?
Thanks.
All I could find is that he has works about every 7 days at Palm Meadows. Nothing showing for him as a probable or possible in any upcoming races.
Thanks Lynda,
Dubyuhnell finished 8th in the Sam Davis, as the favorite no less. There’s been little to no talk about him since that poor showing.
He is back working.
Thanks Steve.
If they ran the Kentucky Derby tomorrow Tapit Trice would be higher than 7-1..
Indeed. A grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby win doesn’t impress most bettors.
Well it sure did impress the futures bettors!
The future wager pool is VERY small. Also, FW bettors are factoring in the potential final prep result.
I doubt he will make the Derby field, I thought Prairie Hawk put up a good effort in the Tampa Derby—from the outside post he broke a half step slow, and was sent towards the front while dmsuffering a very wide journey, had ge broke better he might have been able to get to the eatly lead–he ran 4th….
Speaking of foreign horses, there’s an intriguing entry in the UAE Derby named
Go Soldier Go. Definitely worth a play after his last two efforts. Taking a shot for win/place.
Yes, Go Soldier Go is the colt that interests me more than most in the UAE Derby. There was a little snippet about Go Soldier Go in Monday’s European Section of the Thoroughbred Daily News where it was mentioned that they gave him lots of time to progress.
Steve,
I’m sure it’s going to be a challenge keeping things fresh for the next Derby Rankings. Have you thought about approaching it from the perspective of probables in each of the final preps and how things might play out?
I’ll take any suggestions I can get. This week will be brutal. Lol
Simon, you get the elephant stamp. That seems a prettier good angle to me. From the results of the major props you can draw a phantom field for the Kentucky Derby.
Thanks! Elephant stamp? Is that an Aussie thing.
Yes, Simon, for young children that did well at schoolwork the teachers would mark the work with an elephant stamp for excellent, a gold star for very good, and a silver star for good.
Yay!
Airtime colt anyone?
Thanks for the update Steve, no real changes for me this week. The top 2 are strong and I still like Red Route One. Yesterday when I clicked on Secretariat.com your name wasn’t on the task bar. I have to admit I had slight panic then relief when it came back up. We all appreciate your incites!
Two Eagles River appears to be an improving horse, certainly one to watch moving forward. He broke his maiden at Churchill over a sloppy track, going 5 furlongs in 57.87, earning a Brisnet Speed Figure of 104. On February 19th, he won a 100K AOC race at Oaklawn park, beating the highly regarded Disarm by 4 open lengths. The time for the one mile contest, was a snappy 1:37.10, and what was most impressive, he ran the last furlong in 12:16 seconds. He’s listed as a “possible” for the Arkansas Derby on April 1st. Today, he worked a bullet 5 furlongs in 59.00 flat, 1/17. His previous work on March 7th was equally impressive, going 4 furlongs in 47.00 flat.
In Pool 5, Two Eagles River closed at 270-1. Just for the hell of it, I boxed him with Raise Cain, (66-1) in a $20.00 Exacta wager. If those two finish 1st and 2nd, that wager would pay $114,500. A pipe dream? Without question.
The one thing that concerns me about Two Eagles River, he’s a gelding. Geldings have not had a lot of success in the KD.
Correction, a $20.00 exacta box, using Two Eagles River and Raise Cain would pay, $57,250.
Bill, if you had bet $20 to win on every gelding in the Derby for the past 20 years, you would have made an astonishing profit.
Bet – $280
Won – $1,308
I probably should have told you that 20 years ago.
Simon
In modern times, two geldings have won the Kentucky Derby, Funny Cide (2003) and Mine That Bird (2009).
Granted, it is rare for a gelding to win the Derby, let’s just say it’s possible but not probable, and let it go at that.
I was just having some fun, Bill. Have a good day.
No problem Simon, I knew you were just yanking my chain a little bit regarding geldings in the Derby.
I just have a gut feeling that Two Eagles River could be a special gelding moving forward on the Derby trail.
I’m hopeful he shows up in the Arkansas Derby, and secures enough points to make the Derby starting gate. As I mentioned, I boxed him with Raise Cain, who has enough points to make the Derby.
Good luck with you picks Simon.
Thanks, Bill. Two Eagles River has kept some pretty decent company, and he may be getting very good at just the right time. He needs to at least finish a good second in the Ark Derby to be considered a contender, but a 3rd-place finish should at least get him in the gate.
You’re welcome Simon
I was shocked to see Two Eagles River close at 270-1 in Derby Futures Pool 5. I could not resist laying down an exacta wager with another longshot, Raise Cain, at 66-1.
BTW, I just read Brad Cox is considering the Arkansas Derby as Hit Show’s next start, instead of the Wood.
Since all of Hit Show’s works have been over the Oaklawn Park track, you would think he would feel more at home at Oaklawn, versus the track at Aqueduct. I’m hoping Cox will point him to the Arkansas Derby.
It will be a tougher field in the Ark Derby.
Yes indeed, that tougher field (in the Ark. Derby) might include Two Eagles River who’s been flying under the radar. His trainer, Chris Hartman also mentioned the Sunland Derby as another option that he is considering for Two Eagles River’s next start. We’ll see.
Steve, as I look at your top 15 list here, the majority of them are off the pace types dependent on a favorable pace to close into. It’s not looking like it’s going to be a scorching pace like last years race. Very few prep races this year have been won by quality speed other than Cave Rock/Arabian Knight that are out. I look for a more reasonable pace this year and I want someone up on or close to it, as that has been the winning profile at CD most years since going to the points format. After the slow start and terrible trip in the Rebel, I look forward to Reincarnates’ next race, and hope he can get back to the forward style that gives him a better chance in the Derby.
Ever since Churchill in its divine wisdom decreed that sprints had no place on the Derby trail we have had mainly horses who run on or close to the pace winning the Derby. It used to be a rarity to see a speed horse win the Derby. Maybe we’ll see a Japanese horse go wire to wire this year.
Steve Haskin: If a relative of Sunday Silence who is from Japan wins, wouldn’t that be something. The progeny of Sunday Silence have the capability of doing something wonderful on Derby Day.
Hi, Steve. Great rundown. I remember last year when you bemoaned the lack of experience with many of the derby hopefuls. I think there were 7 derby runners that had four or fewer career races. This year there may be, at most, just a few. Of course, the final preps will weed out plenty of pretenders. For now there are the stakes colts Geaux Rocket Ride and Litigate who will have 3 and 4 races, respectively, before the derby, and the allowance runners Kingsbarns and Disarm with 3 and 4, respectively.
Do you think that a more experienced field should make handicapping easier this time?
Yes, but quantifying that answer by saying that the 20 horse field is total game changer, therefore the answer is totally unpredictable. Ha ha So, yes and no. Lol.
I agree.. and disagree. Ha ha!
Roberta, have you gone over the Golden Slipper field yet? The favorite, Cylinder, looks too strong to me and the colt has a good post which is important in “the Slipper, mate!”. It’s amazing here in Australia even the local corner store owner has an opinion on major races.
I have, Davids! I’ll put everything I’ve got (not counting actual cash) on Little Brose. He’s at the top of his form cycle, having just won a Gr1 at the same distance. And he beat Cylinder in November! I guess the trial race on January 31 doesn’t really count, so this is his third race after a 2 1/2 month layoff. How’s that? Ha ha!
Good for you, Roberta. Little Brose is equally 4th in the betting at present but there’s plenty of time for the big money to come in and change everything. The other two big races on Saturday are Race 4. Rosehill Guineas and Race 7. George Ryder Stakes both Group 1.
The weather in Sydney has been unseasonably hot and Saturday will be 86 so the track should be fast. Hope you have a great time watching.
Steve Haskin-
Hello. Thank you for posting the Derby Rankings Week 8. It’s a nice recap of where all the horses are positioned with seven weeks left before KD 2023. I like the new format offered for the Kentucky Derby Future Wager with almost 40 individual betting interests. Naturally, there are more options and higher odds.
In Pool 5, which closed March 12, I backed three horses: Geaux Rocket Ride, Raise Cain, and Litigate. I’m just hoping these three stay healthy, run fast, and make it to the starting gate. Will keep my fingers crossed.
As you mentioned in the blog, the Louisiana Derby on March 25 will help define the contenders and pretenders on the Derby Trail. Looking forward to that weekend. Keep up the good work.
7.5 Furlongs
Litigate hasn’t worked and Pletcher said today he is off the trail
Thanks for the update. Your source of info?
Smile Happy returns in a 9f allowance race at Oaklawn on Thursday, 10 months after finishing 8th in last year’s Derby. It’s great to see him back.
Commentators on the show I watched were extremely negative about Tapit Trice the instant he crossed the wire, but I take the opposite view. Bear in mind I’ve liked this horse since he was a yearling so I’m biased: but:
He’s looking at the horse inside of him at the break, maybe reacting to an inside runner, Groveland, who’s trying to charge the gate. Between the slow break and not being alert into stride he loses about two lengths there. Then he moves up between horses but appears to stall out, based on what Saez said maybe not liking kickback. Then he moves outside, at one point disappears from the camera. makes at least one more move, Saez (and I) becoming increasingly urgent that he needs to go now, starts to rocket past horses and comes on extremely wide. He’s maybe seven or eight wide around the far turn. He seems to steady briefly to go around Classic Legacy, but the momentum has built and he passes the leaders late with giant strides and is going away from the field past the wire.
This was a heck of an effort with a significant trip. Neither I nor anybody is disputing that he can’t break slow, he can’t just lollop along, he can’t be looking at everything and unfocused if he’s going to win the Derby. But I think this race was much more impressive, in his fourth career start, than he’s being given credit for.
Not too concerned about TT from way back, it happened last year. in 2014 Commanding Curve (50-1) flew in the stretch to get 2nd behind Chrome. 2017 Lookin at Lee huge rail 2nd at 20-1. 2013 Orb from the rear aided by pace meltdown. Be nice to get 6-1 , don’t see anyone stealing it on the lead
Pointing Tapit Trice for the Tampa Bay Derby always concerned me, unless horses are familiar with the track many don’t perform at their best. Considering Tapit Trice’s inexperience he performed reasonably well. There are the obvious negatives nonetheless. Had the Tampa Bay Derby been run at Gulfstream Park instead of Tampa Bay Tapit Trice probably would have performed considerably better. It’s a learning experience, on to the next prep, wait and see what happens.
Congratulations to Honeysuckle and Rachel Blackmore upon winning the Mares Hurdle today.
This is probably Honeysuckle’s final bow and she is going out on top.
Just an amazing mare and jockey combination.
The prices for the Pool 5 exacta payouts that were posted on Monday and Tuesday were wrong, way wrong.
Today, they have been corrected to reflect the prices that I expected to see at the closing of betting, on 3-12.
The problem was probably a computer glitch. It’s a mystery to me way it took so long to correct the problem.
Looking forward to reading about Tapit Trice’s Thoro-Graph number for the Tampa Bay Derby. He earned a 95 from Brisnet, down from a 99 in the one-turn allowance mile. A 95 isn’t necessarily bad in a penultimate prep, but he’ll need to pick it up in the Blue Grass. On the Atlantic side of the state, maiden winner Empirestrikesfast earned a 99 at the same 8.5f distance. Dreamlike probably got nothing worse than a 98 as they pretty much ran together around the track.
I would be concerned about TT’s slow starts. There have been a couple of Derby winners in the last 10 years that rallied from far back, but both of them benefited from extremely fast early fractions. Fractions that fast aren’t likely this year. Then think about the many good horses that had to close against moderate or slow early fractions and also encountered trouble along the way. Closing to win is one thing; closing from near the back of a 20-horse pack is a very different circumstance.
Simon, the winner of the Kentucky Derby usually is a horse that gets a perfect trip or an unexpected gift from the racing gods so, as much as we puzzle over, handicap the runners you just never know really. Imagine if Tapit Trice was asleep at the start, loses 8 lengths, then flounders at the back for most of the race then, all of a sudden, the whole 19 go wide at the top of the stretch enabling Tapit Trice to explode through the gap and win by 5 lengths going away. Uncanny, the racing gods, fate, who knows. You just pull your hair out, cursing, that’s racing.
Conversely, Tapit Trice rockets out of the gate and never looks back. It’s hard predicting what will happen in a 20 horse field but it’s fun trying. For me, I’ve forgotten the Tampa Bay Derby for now and am waiting to see what Tapit Trace does in the Blue Grass Stakes that picture will tell you more of the story.
Nothing would surprise me. But someone once said that all you need for handicapping the Derby are the PPs of the runners’ last two races and corresponding videos. I think it’s true.
Yes, I would agree as well. Two year old form is simply that.
Steve, thanks again for your dedication in making the Derby Rankings the most interesting, entertaining coverage of the Derby preps as we start getting into serious territory. The major concern I have with Tapit Trice is what Luis Saez said “When the dirt started hitting him in the face, he was a little green.” At Churchill Downs, with a 20 horse field, that sand will be flying thick and fast while trying to avoid all the kickback will cost so much ground it’s self defeating. When it all comes down to it, Tapit Trice shouldn’t have won the Tampa Bay Derby but he did, and convincingly.
Yes, at last, the Derby field is taking shape with at least three serious contenders at present – Forte, Practical Move, and Tapit Trice. No doubt others will throw their hats in the ring as each major prep reaches its climax but who will wear the laurel wreath on the day is anyone’s guess. They all seem evenly matched at this stage. Hopefully, out of the mist, a handful may surprise us all.
Steve, I doubt Cairo is coming for the Derby. He’s not entered for the Kentucky Derby’ Conditions Stakes at Kempton but is entered for the 2,000 Guineas on May 6, at Newmarket. The UAE Derby might be more interesting this year with the Japanese runners as well as the Tapiture colt Go Soldier Go. Clutching at straws, possibly.
What intrigues me than most, however, is when and where Bob Baffert intends to run Cave Rock. Cave Rock can’t get in the Kentucky Derby but he can certainly make havoc for those trying to get in. Such a pity it’s a quiet weekend on the Derby Trail this weekend, but the Golden Slipper Stakes will be run as well as an excellent racing card at Rosehill on Saturday in Sydney, Australia. $5 million prize money for 2 year olds running 6f, crazy. That’s racing.
I agree with you about TT. There is cause for concern. Have you heard any hints about Cave Rock’s next race? I can’t imagine he’d be entered in the SA Derby or similar after so much time off.
No Simon, no idea. All you can do is spot the Preakness Stakes and go backwards with various scenarios. Keeneland to Pimlico? Pure guesswork. As you’d know, Baffert’s record of producing outstanding performances from horses that have been out for lengthy periods is remarkable. The Santa Anita Derby 9f seems impossible but who knows?
Yes, Davids, I’m sure that Baffert has had many winning efforts from horses coming off very long layoffs. But I wonder what the historical record says about his work with horses having a long layoff between their 2- and 3-year-old seasons and returning in a big 9f race. My guess is that he is less inclined to do that.
I remember Cupid. His last race was September 24, 2016, Pennsylvania Derby, then came back on May 27, 2017 to win the 10f Hollywood Gold Cup. So there is precedence for Cave Rock. Now I’m getting more intrigued about Cave Rock. Ha ha
I remember Cupid. He let his arrow go WITHIN his 3-year-old season, not from 2 to 3 like Cave Rock. When Cupid returned, he was a seasoned 4 year old.
The European trainers do it all the time, often leaping from relatively early two year old starts straight into the 2,000 Guineas or Epsom Derby preps Derby Trial races around 11f. the following year.
It’s a very different game there. Not that there’s anything wrong with that. 😉
That’s true Simon. They ‘intuitively’ know the best distance for their horses early and train accordingly. Usually what separates the flock is the superior turn of foot, determination, and natural abilities as a racehorse.
Per tweet 21 hours ago by Dubai Racing, Japan has 5 entries in the UAE Derby including Perriere, Baffert has one, Worcester; O’Neil, Tall Boy and Ah Jeeze; Cairo, Ireland. Other entries include USA bred Shirl’s Bee racing for UAE and USA bred Go Soldier Go racing for UAE & Bahrain
Sooner or later a horse coming from another overseas country is going to win America’s race again-the Kentucky Derby (Tomy Lee/UK the last some six decades ago or so with apologies to Sunny’s Halo from neighboring Canada).
Forte can run his usual 98-100 Beyer and come away with a win and this has worked numerous times already for the the defending champ. Practical Move could reach for that unreachable star and be the star. Or it could come from horses that won or ran on surfaces recently that left you scratching your head….but I won’t rehash that.
Instead, the winner just might a horse from an overseas country…. I’m starting to look at Mandarin Hero…. whom will is scheduled to run in the SA Derby….can’t wait.
If you rmember a horse came staight fom England in 1986 and ran a great second. As good as the Japanese have been, what will people say if a second tier Japanese horse comes here and beats our best 3-year-olds in our best and most historic race? I personally think it would be embarassing. I wouldnt want to spend months writing about the Derby and covering the race and have to quote an interpreter. Churchill Downs will pretend theyre happy because they make a ton of money getting Japanese horses, but I wouldnt believe them. The Derby is an American institution and I doubt the majority of bettors and fans would be too happy. And belive me I love intrnational competition. Th DC Internatioanal was my favorite race going back to the ’60s.
Nah, give them a chance. I maybe wrong-but didn’t this Japanese racehorse flurry begin with the Sunday Silence situation years ago? If so, emulation might become the sincerest form of flattery.
As ‘iron sharpens iron’ goes the Proverb….we shouldn’t be embarrassed but motivated….test our resolve and make us better.
Sunday Silence situation? What was that?
When he (SS) was exported to Japan for breeding at Shadai Stallion Station in Shiraoi…became the leading sire in Japan from 1995 to 2008-a record- and his descendents have won 20 of 22 JRA Grade 1 flat races as well as the Grade 1 International races like the Hong Kong Vase, Hong Kong Mile and the Dubai Sheema Classic.
He progeny is said to have won well over $700 million in purse money.
John it is my understanding that Santa Anita has had a 30 year relationship with the NAR league in Japan and has encouraged the leaque to send their horses here to race. Another reason for this relationship(s) with Japan is the betting handle. The Japanese racing fans as I understand it bet a lot more on horse racing than Americans do. Santa Anita would probably like to capture some of those monies.
Awhile back I spent some time researching the Kentucky Derby points system and what trainers, breeders, owners, fans and handicappers thought about the Road To The Kentucky Derby on its tenth anniversary (this year). There were some in the industry who did not care for saving a gate in the Derby for Japan, England/Ireland and Dubai. More often than not the winners of these races do not come to America for the Derby.
Japan has spent many millions of dollars buying champion stallions and mares for their breeding program. As I mentioned previously they for speed, stamina and durability and race their horses past their 3 year old careers. The country has spent millions on researching racetrack safety and their racing and training centers are state of the art. Jockeys are enrolled in a 3 year certification program and their training centers and tracks have on site vets who are employed by the racing association and have to abide by their rules. The tracks also have state of the art diagnostic and surgical and treatment hospitals on site. They also focus more heavily on containing contagious diseases such as EHV- neurological than we do here in America.
So I do agree with you that there is something our American Thoroughbred racing sport and industry can learn from Japan.
America takes great pride I think in breeding the fastest dirt horses in the world, but in my opinion some let that pride blind them from seeing that there are things they can learn from Japan and other countries.
The silver lining in all this (and I always look for a silver lining) is that if a colt from Japan, regardless of how he or if a filly, earned that gate in the Derby, chances are that colt or filly is result of a beautifully crafted breeding program that took advantage of our American bred horses.
Yep, couldn’t agree more. Thanks.
Steve, the colt that interests me in the UAE Derby, if he runs, is the son of Tapiture – Go Solder Go. His win in the Al Bastakiya was quite impressive.
Agree; Churchill does deserve this scenario. Karma would be fine with me.
I’ll look at Mandarin Hero if he runs well at SA. In the meantime, I just hope he stays out of Practical Move’s way.
Does Canonero count as a foreign horse or would he have to be born in another country?
Canonero II raced at Del Mar as a 2yo….
Another racing website states that Mark Casse said he was wowed by how Tapit Trice performed down the stretch. “That horse, to me, was very impressive”, he said. He is the trainer of Classic Carwash, who came in second. I was wowed too, so I’m in good professional company.
Casse didn’t use the word “wow” in what I assume is the article from which you quote. But he did say the rest of what you quoted. I’m still waiting for a trainer to say the horse that beat his horse in a big race WASN’T impressive. The vast majority of racing fans, handicappers, and analysts have been and continue to be impressed by Tapit Trice, myself included. Steve has him at #3, TDN has him at #3, Bloodhorse has him at #4. DRF had him #6, before the Tampa race. Lots of folks here like him. He’s been in my top 5 or 6 ever since his February allowance win. Did you notice that he closed yesterday as the second choice in the future wager? You should be happy that TT isn’t getting the near unanimous support you think he deserves. Do you want to cash an 8-5 (or worse) ticket?
Quote from the article:: “Mark Casse, the trainer of Classic Carwash, said he was wowed…”
You can argue with what Casse meant but to me it sounded like he really was wowed, as I was, with that race. I single out that race, without regard to how Tapit Trice performs next time, what his futures odds are, or what his chances are in the Derby, as a closer. I was surprised more people weren’t quite as enthusiastic, even if they thought it was pretty good. He ran the last 1/2 furlong in under 5.5 seconds, for a respectable final time, who does that on dirt?
Car Wash.
I wouldnt go by what Casse said. I have never seen the trainer of a runner-up who didnt praise the winner. The better he looks the better your horse looks.
Yes, I guess Casse may have been inclined to be impressed, because of his horse’s second place finish.
Most years it seems like the preps are mostly won on or near the front end. …but in 2023 it does seem like there aren’t all that many speed types—dies that bode well for Geaux Rocket Ride? 92 Beyer one turn race yhen 96 Beyer two turn race, one more race Santa Anita Derby, which could be a good race to temper his steel, as it were, and then on to Kentucky, Mandella and his Candy Ride colt, with their speed……
Shhhhh
Agree here; in a year with no available superstar yet, a horse with 3 starts with a HOF trainer and speed could win this year. I would be more comfortable if he had one more start.
Steve, the top three are formidable for now, but it’s too early to make picks. Of all the speed figures, I can not wrap my head around Beyer figures and the inconsistencies.
For example; Tapit Trice ran a credible 1:43.37 for a 1 1/6 race run over a deep track and he closed the final 1/16 in 6.14 seconds. His Beyer figure was a measly 88.
Arabian Knight’s final time in the Southwest run over a sealed track was 1:43.50 final 1/16 in 6.25 he gets a 98 Beyer. We all know these numbers can be subjective, but I do pay more attention to Thoro-Graph numbers.
TT gained a few lengths from the stretch call to the finish, so his final 1/16th was at least 5 2/5 sec.
Beyer does not take into consideration ground loss among other things. TT was wide the entire race and went at least 8 wide turning for home before he put in a sustained run down the stretch.
Yes, but I was just correcting the final half-furlong time.
Agree, I think the speed figure people make their own special “adjustments”. I wish they would simply provide the track variant for the race and people could do their own multiplication minus the additives, preservatives and special spices. You can see for yourself how the race was run and make your own adjustments for that, just roughly, doesn’t have to be fine tuned.
Yes they could Discopartner, but they like to make folks PAY for the figures.
I wonder whether the precision of these figures is a sign that they’re way off.
Totally agree. Beyer figures, like Dosage, have obvious flaws. Thro-Graph numbers are providing the most accurate performance figures and then it’s up to the handicapper to fill in the ‘blanks.’
I just mntion them because there are people who use them
Please keep mentioning them!
Did you see Henry Q at Sunland ?
There ar no stakes next weekend, so a dull weekend. I will be reviewing past stakes and saving the Sunland race so it doesnt get lost.
The exacta payouts in Derby Futures Pool 5 are minuscule compared to the payouts in the previous 4.
Is there anyone out there that might shed some light as to the giantic difference in the Pool 5 payout vs the payouts in the previous 4?
Thanks.
Bill Those are not correct – I noticed that as well. Somehow I think it’s the number of tickets they posted which would make sense –
Thanks for the reply Derbyologist
Yeah, there’s something real screwy going on here.
As an example, I’ll list the closing figures in the Win Pool and the Exacta Pool, in the last three Derby Futures Pools.
Pool 3, $244,699 in the win Pool, $68,206 in the Exacta Pool
Pool 4, $259,489 in the win Pool, $81,391 in the Exacta Pool
Pool 5, $250,906 in the win Pool, $90,731 in the Exacta Pool.
If anything, you would think the exacta payouts in Pool 5 would exceed the payouts in Pool 3 and 4. Go figure.
I’ll keep an eye on the Pool 5 figures moving forward. Hopefully, they’ll be more in line with the payouts in the previous Pools.
We’ll see.
Hi Derbyologist
Today, Tuesday, 3-14, the Pool 5 Exacta payouts have been corrected. These are the prices that I expected at the close of betting on Sunday, 3-12, but were much, much lower when they were initially posted on Monday, 3-13. I’m thinking a computer glitch caused the problem. I swung for the fences on a few exacta bets. As an example, I boxed Raise Cain (66-1) with Two Eagles River (270-1) in a $20.00 exacta box. Two Eagles River is listed as a “possible” in the Arkansas Derby.
BTW, that bet would pay $114,500.00 if those two finsih, first and second. Fingers crossed. 🙂
Empirestrikesfast, ANOTHER gutsy gelding, like Scotland, upsets the mega insane priced MSW’s (3yr olds). I LOVE these kinds of upsets! These two geldings showed me so much. Love a gutsy talented gelding. That was so impressive, please watch replay, if you didn’t see it.
I mentioned him.
I know you did Steve, I just had to gush about this gelding. That race was cool as hell. I’m fangirl of this gelding already… THAT was eye catching! Thanks Steve.
Hi Steve, thanks once again for all your efforts and time.
Congrats to Mandy and Todd for TT’s win. I am probably not as optimistic as some about his chances in the Derby. If his running style is deep closer (or so it seems), I see him as a better fit for the Belmont. I think it will take luck and some blessing from the racing gods to get around or through the wall of horses in front of him. Can it be done, of course! Rich Strike and Mine That Bird did so did Secretariat and my childhood favorite, Carry Back and of course Zenyatta. I personally like a runner like this colt and the others I mentioned, makes for thrilling races.
Thanks for mentioning Mandarin Hero. Some discount his chances because he has raced in the dirt track league. Just a reminder the Marche Lorraine shipped in from that league and won the BC Distaff. I think MH has the pedigree to run successfully in the SA Derby. Even if he accumulates only 30 points, conceivably he could still get in after defections. Wishing him and Japanese connections the Gary best of luck.
The Japanese have spent the last 50 years developing a program that puts an emphasis on speed, versatility and stamina. They race their horses beyond age 3 rather than retiring them off to stud or being broodmares.
Similarly as you stated..not a matter of if but of when Japan will win one of the 3 TC races. And yes it will not set well with some, but will not bother me one bit. They so love the sport and the horses and their enthusiasm is contagious.
Have a great week everyone. In for about a week of a return to winter temperatures here. Hopefully the freeze will not damage the fruit trees (my blueberry bushes are blooming) and stunt the growth of the spring hay crop.
Hopefully this one race wont label him as a deep closer. Hes still learning and his prior races didnt indicate he wants to drop that far back just as a slow start didnt stamp Reincarnate and Slip Mahoney. As for the Belmont that race has proven it is more geared to horses with speed than deep closers, who rarely win. Everyone thought Carry Back was a lock to win the Triple Crown with his running style and he bombed in the Belmont.
It is possible that Carry Back’s ankle injury was the reason he lost the Belmont Stakes. He was given three months off to heal and returned to the track later that year.
Just want to clarify that Tapit Trice does seem to have the speed to win the Derby but he will have to break quicker and get his momentum going faster in my opinion. He would, I think, relish the longer distance in the Belmont.
The big diference with him I believe will be going 1 1/4 miles compard to 1 1/16 miles. He will have a lot of time to get his engine going. I was impressed he got it going at this short distance.
Steve, you make a good point about the Belmont being more favorable to speed, but what about the 3 sons of Tapit who have won it? Tapwrit, Creator and Tonalist were hardly speedballs. As Laurie Ross of Pedigree Profiles has pointed out, the Tapits don’t do well in the Derby, with the inability of these long-striding colts to handle the turns.
But in the Belmont, with its sweeping turns, it’s been a different story. I think Tapit Trice may be the most talented Tapit colt yet, but he certainly fits the profile of losing the Derby (maybe after a rough trip), bypassing the Preakness (as Pletcher always does with his Derby losers), then winning the Belmont.
Steve, I love this column and appreciate so much all the effort and passion you put into this.
Hi Steve – I am really looking forward to the upcoming LA Derby in 2 weeks. I have 2 KDFW horses in that race, Tapits Conquest and KingsBarns. I was thrilled to get the u undefeated KingsBarns at 43-1 in KDFW5. I bet him to win and boxed him with Tapits Conquest, Disarm, Forte, and the field. I really like that he breaks well from the gate and has tactical speed. The late closing RedRoute One and Instant Coffee may not be able to reel him in the stretch at the FG. He needs points and I’m hoping he runs 1 or 2 to get him in. We are both high on Disarm Steve. I added to my KDFW bets by betting him at 60-1 in KDFW5 to win as well as boxing him with Forte, KingsBarns and the field. Disarm is flying way under the radar and could be sitting on a big one. He may go next in the APR Arkansas Derby. Disarm worked 6F today at the FG in preparation for his KY Derby prep start next out. Steve A wants to get him ready for the 1 1/8 prep in his next start. A good third would get him 30 points which may be enough to get him in. There will be no Forte or Practical Joke going in the ARK Derby, so Disarm should be very competitive and have a good chance to hit the board and try to punch his ticket to Louisville.
Hey 1JoeP
When Derby Futures Pool 5 closed (yesterday, 3-12) did you notice the minuscule exacta payouts compared to the previous 4?
Something strange is going on with those Pool 5 exacta payouts.
Hi Bill – I didn’t notice any reduction in the payouts at least for the bets that I made. The payouts were very high if you picked a horse that you liked and boxed them with the field. I did this with KingsBarns and Disarm. Only one more pool left to go. With the 100 point preps around the corner those in and out should become clearer sooner. The points bar may be lowered a bit with the defection of Arabian Knight. He likely would have won or placed in the SA Derby. His defection gives horses that have few or no points with one prep remaining a better chance of making the cut with Arabian Knight now out.
1JoeP
I have no problem with the odds and payout figures in the Win Pool, it’s the payouts in the Exacta Pool 5 that doesn’t make any sense. Did you look at the closing payouts in the Exacta Pool 5?
Hi again Bill – I just looked at the KY Derby website and those prices have to be wrong. Some of the payouts are for $2. I was looking at the odds and the payouts on Twinspires . Com during the pool. Those payouts were large. The KY Derby website definitely posted wrong payouts, go figure!
1JoeP
They better get those prices right before the next Futures Pool is scheduled to open, or they’ll come up empty in Exacta Futures wagers in Pool 6.
Hi 1JoeP
Today, 3-14, the Pool 5 Exacta payout prices have been corrected. That’s more like it.
That’s good to hear Bill. Thanks for the update.
Well, I think that covers everything, everywhere, all at once. Hard to argue the top few, but I believe that Angel of Empire deserves greater consideration. Last I heard, he isn’t being targeted for the La Derby. The Blue Grass is possible but the Ark Derby is more likely, according to Cox. That’s wise because AoE doesn’t need to prove himself at 1 3/16 when he’s already shown ability at 9f. He’s 3 for 4 in dirt races, with his only loss coming in the Smarty Jones because Victory Formation got away with an easy lead.
Let’s not forget that Risen Star runners finished 2nd and 3rd in both of the last two Ky derbies. That race at the new distance must be respected. I like the 37-1 odds that I got on AoE yesterday. With 83-1 Practical Move, I feel pretty good. But I am certainly not counting my winnings!
LOL. That made me and my wife laugh out loud. Well done, Simon.
Thanks, Steve. Glad you and your wife had a good laugh…and that you deftly avoided commenting about my overconfidence in Angel of Empire. 😉
Simon, your first line made me giggle as well and I was disappointed that Cate Blanchett didn’t win. Blanchett won the BAFTA and the New York Film Critics Circle Award so that’s plenty.
Blanchett continues to amaze. I didn’t see EEAAO, so I won’t compare movies or performances. I loved “The Banshees of Inisherin.”
Simon, here’s something you probably don’t know but Michelle Yeoh was actually the 1984 Melbourne, Victoria, Miss Moomba International. The Moomba Festival is the Labour Day Celebration public holiday, which was actually yesterday here. Michelle would have been wearing a crown sitting on a throne atop a large float.
“Everything Everywhere All at Once” indeed. Michelle was also Miss Malaysia, coming 17th in the 1984 Miss World competition in London.
How about that!
I think it’s interesting if you look at the leaderboard (and even potential horses), how there is an obvious lack of speed for the Derby. As of now, I would only consider Reincarnate and Geaux Rocket Ride early speed types, and even Reincarnate would need to show better early speed after his last race.
Cairo is an interesting horse, I believe they are actually going to run him in the UAE Derby, and potentially the Ky Derby depending on his performance. He’s certainly bred to go long, just a question of how he handles actual dirt.
Good point concerning the lack of true early speed. In last year’s Derby, the foreign invaders set up Rich Strike’s big rally.