2023 Derby Rankings – Week 9
We are in the mid-March eye of the storm where we have a brief lull before the second and more powerful blast hits us. Until then we take a deep breath, get through the eerie stillness, and prepare for the second wave, which will hit first in New Orleans. In addition to analyzing the Louisiana Derby we made a few changes in the Rankings order due to timing and added one new horse. ~ Steve Haskin
Derby Rankings: March 20, 2023 – Week 9
By Steve Haskin
1—Forte (Todd Pletcher, Violence – Queen Caroline, by Blame)
All we’re waiting for now is the Florida Derby to see if he is still the solid favorite for the Kentucky Derby after the race. To be frank, I don’t see anyone in Florida who looks good enough to beat him; certainly not the horses he handled so easily in the Fountain of Youth or anyone from the Holy Bull. In this game you hate to be so bold as to say he looks to have a free pass, as some young horses do make rapid improvement this time of year, but this has been a slow bunch and no one has given any indication that they are going to make such a sudden leap forward they can beat this colt, although the lightly raced Mage should improve big-time off his fourth in the Fountain of Youth. Granted, Forte’s speed figures have not exactly been though the roof and he’s been running the same Thoro-Graph numbers he ran last fall. But all he has to do is maintain those numbers to beat these horses. Then we’ll see how they stack up with the others in the Kentucky Derby. Perhaps an out-of-town horse needing points and wanting to avoid a large contentious field will ship in trying to at least pick up second-place points. Forte had an easy half-mile breeze in :50 3/5 on Sunday.
2—Practical Move (Tim Yakteen, Practical Joke – Ack Naughty, by Afleet Alex)
He remains sharp with a half-mile breeze in :47 3/5 for the Santa Anita Derby. Earlier in the year it looked as if the Southern California contingent was the thinnest, with Bob Baffert horses, many of whom wouldn’t be heading to the Derby, dominating the group. But they have sorted themselves out with several improving colts bursting on the scene. As a result, Practical Move, the clear-cut leader of the pack, looks to be facing stiffer competition in his final prep than Forte. Geaux Rocket Ride and Skinner should both improve off the San Felipe and National Treasure is back and working lights out. There is also the unknown factor, Mandarin Hero from Japan. And let’s not forget that Baffert is still around and dangerous with his non-Derby horse Cave Rock, who is training brilliantly. Yakteen has to decide the best way of getting Practical Move, his main priority, having developed the colt, to the Kentucky Derby while also doing what’s right for National Treasure and Reincarnate, who have been entrusted in his care. It’s a good problem to have, but it’s going to take good planning and some luck to not have any of these horses facing each other before the Derby. Practical Move has really found his niche and has developed into a sound, dependable, and professional racehorse who definitely should improve off the San Felipe.
3—Tapit Trice (Todd Pletcher, Tapit – Danzatrice, by Dunkirk)
The biggest action this week is still trying to figure out what we think of Tapit Trice after his polarizing victory in the Tampa Bay Derby. We’ve heard it all. He showed how special he is by coming from so far back and mowing down the field in the stretch…His slow start and lack of pushbutton acceleration are going to hurt him in a 20-horse field…Once he gets rolling he is a runaway bulldozer and you don’t want to get in his way…His Beyer regression to a mediocre 88 shows he is too slow to win the Derby…He finds a way to win, whether it’s a gut-wrenching stretch battle to the wire, an eight-length romp stalking the pace, or coming from dead-last to win going away…He still has a lot to learn and only one race to get his act together. All we can add this week is that his Thoro-Graph number, after improving two points in every race, only went from a 4 1/2 to a 4 1/4, and he would need a far bigger improvement than that in his next start. Fortunately, no one has run faster than a 2 this year, so he is not dealing with a particularly fast bunch of 3-year-olds up to this point. That could change after the final preps. Bottom line is I thought he was special when I ranked him No. 7 off a neck maiden win, which I never do, and my opinion of him hasn’t changed. He still has two months to smooth out any rough edges.
4—Hit Show (Brad Cox, Candy Ride – Actress, by Tapit)
Brad Cox’s “hit show” will be at Fair Grounds this weekend when he fires some of his heavy ammo in the Louisiana Derby and then sets off another round the following week in the Arkansas Derby. But his real hit show may turn out to be in the Wood Memorial on April 9 when he will run either this colt to try to duplicate his powerful victory in the Withers Stakes, which would send him into the Kentucky Derby off back-to-back mile and an eighth races, or Gotham runner-up Slip Mahoney or both. The latter is there and looks certain to run. Hit Show is back working steadily at Fair Grounds, so who knows if he’ll ship back up north or go to the Blue Grass Stakes. Just as a reminder he will not turn 3 until three days after the Kentucky Derby so he has been a late bloomer who has improved with every work and every race since he was a baby. And his speed figures have also improved with every race to the point where his Thoro-Graph number in the Withers has not been topped by any 3-year-old. Because of his May 9 foaling date, for him to break his maiden in a romp in his career debut in October of his 2-year-old campaign is impressive as is winning a 1 1/8-mile stakes on February 11 at 3. What will help him in the Derby is that he has always been very laid back and just a smart, straight-forward colt. He still has to face better quality horses, but other than that he has shown he has all the qualities to be a top Derby contender.
5—Reincarnate (Tim Yakteen, Good Magic – Allanah, by Scat Daddy)
He turned in a strong six-furlong work in 1:12 2/5 in company. As of now it looks like he will return to Oaklawn Park for the Arkansas Derby, with Yakteen having Practical Move as the top dog in Southern California. So, what do we know about this colt? We know he is a fighter and hard to get by in the stretch. We know he can battle through adversity and adapt to different situations, such as a breaking slowly and having to deviate from his normal running style and then overcoming a mugging in the stretch and still closing strongly to get third. It’s good to know you can be confident no matter where he is in the race and what problems he may face. We also know he is an imposing physical specimen with fluid action and he has as solid a foundation as any of them, having run six times, all at a mile or farther. He also has finished first or second on fast and sloppy tracks and on grass. So at this young stage of his life he boasts quite a resume. Now he just has to pick it up a notch and keep moving forward. If you look at his distinctive charcoal gray coat with the white splotches, there is a resemblance (with far fewer splotches) to the great Irish-bred stallion The Tetrarch, also known as “The Spotted Wonder,” to whom he traces back through grays Holy Bull, The Axe, and Mahmoud, who is a great-grandson of The Tetrarch.
6—Raise Cain (Ben Colebrook, Violence – Lemon Belle, by Lemon Drop Kid
Barry Eisaman, who broke him, said he was an ideal horse to be around who had no bad habits and took everything new in stride. No matter what he was introduced to he immediately handled it like a pro. As Eisaman put it he was like a college kid in high school. When looking at the early stages of a potential Derby horse this is what you want to see. Pedigree-wise, many have forgotten Lemon Drop Kid, who only won the Belmont, Travers, Whitney, Woodward, Suburban and Brooklyn. Raise Cain’s second dam is by Pacific Classic and Woodward winner and Breeders’ Cup Classic runner-up Bertando, who is by Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Skywalker. His tail-female family traces to Man o’ War through his son, Triple Crown winner War Admiral. His huge Thoro-Graph leap from a 12 1/4 to a 2 in the Gotham would suggest a possible regression in his next start, whether the Wood Memorial or Blue Grass, but if he doesn’t, watch out. I think the 2 is for real, as he has a 7 3/4 and a 6 1/4 to fall back on and a 2 would be a natural progression from those figures. The 12 1/4 I believe was an outlier as a result of it being his first start on a synthetic surface, which he apparently did not care for. So if you eliminate that race he is on a better pattern than his figures might suggest.
7—Instant Coffee (Brad Cox, Bolt d’Oro – Follow No One, by Uncle Mo)
With Angel of Fire, Confidence Game, and Red Route One all passing the Louisiana Derby, it does make his job a lot easier, as he is now by far the class of the race. In a 12-horse field devoid of speed he at least should have a ground-saving trip breaking from post 2. But with two months off he could be fresh enough to stay closer to the pace than usual. His big advantage now is that a number of his potential threats, such as Disarm, Kingsbarns, Shopper’s Revenge, and Cagliostro are all lightly raced horses with no stakes experience. And two of the proven stakes horses, Curly Jack and Jace’s Road, are coming off bad races. So, although he hasn’t run in a while, he should be able to handle these horses unless one of the lightly raced horses, especially Disarm and Kingsbarns, is a major star in the making, his stablemate Jace’s Road can steal the race as the only horse with speed, or he comes up short after the long layoff. He had his final work Saturday, breezing five furlongs in a solid 1:01. Instant Coffee really needs to run and get a 1 3/16-mile race under him because of the six-week gap to the Kentucky Derby. With the way this race came up, even if he beats these horses we still won’t know how good he really is. But he definitely has to be respected because he knows how to win and will have three graded stakes victories to his credit.
8—Skinner (John Shirreffs, Curlin – Winding Way, by Malibu Moon)
Some may feel he was hanging a bit through the stretch in the San Felipe, but he is still a work in progress and is just now figuring it all out. He runs like a horse who is going to keep improving as the distances stretch out, but from a pedigree standpoint he is still a bit of an enigma. Although Curlin and Malibu Moon are stamina influences hIs dam was a sprinter and a full-sister to a grade 2-winning sprinter and is second dam was a sprinter. So it’s hard to guess how far he wants to go. Right now we can only go by how he’s run in his two races this year and knowing he has a patient trainer who knows how to get into the mind of his horses and get the most out of them. And Shirreffs and the colt’s exercise rider have been working with him over the winter, and he sure looks like a different horse this year, as evidenced by his Brisnet figures climbing to a 96 and 98 and his Beyers from in the 60s and 70s to a 95 and 94. So whatever Shirreffs has done with him appears to be working.
9—National Treasure (Tim Yakteen, Quality Road – Treasure, by Medaglia d’Oro)
Although he’s lost his last three starts and hasn’t run since early January I am going to add him for his consistency in top-class company and for the way he returned to the work tab after not having worked for almost a month. Earlier this year he twice worked in company with Reincarnate and was put on the lead and refused to let Reincarnate get his head in front at the wire and in the gallop-out. He returned after being scratched in the San Felipe due to a foot bruise with a brilliant six-furlong work in 1:11 4/5, which is a heckuva first work back. He followed that up with a five-furlong drill in 1:00 flat so he should be ready for a big comeback effort. This colt has been second to Cave Rock in the grade 1 American Pharoah and third to Forte and Cave Rock in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He has run four times and has not gotten a Brisnet figure of under 90, with a 101 in the American Pharoah. And that 90 was in his career debut; he has not gotten under a 96 since. On Thoro-Graph his slowest number has been a 6 1/4 in his career debut and he got a 2 3/4 in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. So there is a lot to recommend him and now that he is back with a series of strong works and is with Yakteen he has to be considered a legitimate contender. While the Santa Anita Derby looks to be the most convenient spot for his return, it would make more sense to keep them all separated. He is nominated to the Florida Derby and the Blue Grass looks like a great spot for him unless he starts tearing the barn down before then.
10—Red Route One (Steve Asmussen, Gun Runner – Red House, by Tapit)
All systems are go for the Arkansas Derby. He worked five furlongs in 1:01 2/5 on March 13 and is scheduled to have one more work. You normally wouldn’t get overly excited about a horse who is one-for-seven, but I keep watching his races and I’m still impressed with what I see despite the record. In his seven starts, six of them have been at 1 1/16 miles and the other at one mile, so you can’t ask for a better foundation. He handles fast and sloppy tracks and grass and has run at five different racetracks. And in his last three races I still believe he would have won the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes had he not been completely shut off in the stretch while making what looked like a winning move; then he came from far back to finish second to the brilliant Arabian Knight in the Southwest Stakes; and in his last start he closed from almost 20 lengths back in the Rebel Stakes to finish second, beaten a length despite finishing on his wrong lead. And before that he rallied late to snatch third behind Forte in the Breeders’ Futurity, nipping Instant Coffee on the wire. Of course he is totally pace dependent and can’t afford to be as far back as he was in the Rebel, but let’s see what he does returning to a fast track.
11—Angel of Empire (Brad Cox, Classic Empire – Armony’s Empire, by To Honor and Serve)
Even though he won the Risen Star it makes sense that Cox doesn’t want to pit his two most accomplished colts against each other at Fair Grounds, so he will wait for the following week’s Arkansas Derby. I really have no idea how good this colt is, and in many ways neither do is connections, who are excited to see him go 1 1/4 miles. Despite coming off a win and a second in stakes he still has not reached a 90 Beyer figure. But his Brisnet figures have shown a big jump every race ending with an excellent 97 in the Risen Star, while his Thoro-Graph numbers leaped from a 9 1/4 to a 2 1/2, so he can probably use the extra week. He has fallen through the cracks since he was a baby, partly because he is a Pennsylvania-bred and was by a freshman sire. His dam is by Honor and Serve, his second dam is by Carson City, his third dam is by Metfield, and his fourth dam is by Whitesburg, so there aren’t any real glamour names there. First he was a $32,000 RNA as a weanling at the Keeneland November mixed sale and then the following year the Albaugh family snatched him out of the depths of the Keeneland September yearling sale for a meager $70,000. According to the Albaughs’ racing manager Jason Loutsch, “He went through all our hoops.” Now that he has turned into a tiger he has one more hoop to go through before he takes his “no one wanted me” story to Churchill Downs.
12—Geaux Rocket Ride (Dick Mandella, Candy Ride – Beyond Grace, by Uncle Mo)
I have to admit I have no idea where to rank this horse, so I will keep him down here until the Louisiana, Florida, and Arkansas Derby horses sort themselves out. The more I watch the San Felipe Stakes the more impressed I am, especially the professionalism he showed with only one sprint under him and how strongly he was striding out in the stretch, pulling clear of Hejazi and holding Skinner at bay after cutting to the inside turning for home. If he had one more start and didn’t have to go into the Kentucky Derby off only three lifetime starts and none at 2 I would have him ranked in the top six. He is such a beautiful mover and has such a strong pedigree I believe he has stardom written all over him. But I just can’t get past his lack of racing, as crazy as that may seem in this new era of lightly raced horses. He’ll have his work cut out for him in the Santa Anita Derby, but he has as much right to improve big-time as anyone. And if he should beat Practical Move and the others then I’m going to have to start thinking less about the three starts and more about how gifted he is. I learned that lesson the hard way with Justify. In the meantime, as far as being ranked No. 12, think of him being in a holding pattern until some of the smoke clears over the next two weeks.
13—Rocket Can (Bill Mott, Into Mischief – Tension, by Tapit)
Although he still has many question marks I can’t get him out of my mind because every time I think of him I start hearing Elton John and substituting his name. That nonsense aside there is really nothing to add about him other than he is improving, but it seems too slowly to be considered a major threat to Forte in the Florida Derby if that is where Mott winds up running him. While he could easily get second again he might seem more suited to a race like the Blue Grass even though that likely will have a larger and much deeper field. But by then he may have improved even more, and if so could even have a shot to win. If points were still an issue then going for second again in the Florida Derby might be the smart way to go, but it is not an issue so Mott will just have to decide the best way of getting to the Kentucky Derby and being competitive. This colt does have a bright future; I’m just not sure if it’s going to be on the first Saturday in May. If you are looking for a bright spot he did turn in a bullet half-mile work in :48 3/5, fastest of 19 works at the distance. That is a very quick work at Payson Park, so maybe he is sharper and closer to peaking than one might think.
14—Slip Mahoney (Brad Cox, Arrogate – Get Lucky, by A.P. Indy)
He breezed a half in :49 at Belmont. By him remaining in New York all winter he no doubt is headed for the Wood Memorial. Whether Hit Show returns and joins him is still up in the air. It’s just too bad no one got an opportunity to bet on him in the latest Kentucky Derby Future Wager despite a number of horses with far less credentials being put in the field of 39. I still believe this is a legitimate Derby contender, and like Geaux Rocket Ride, he has only been lowered until we get some clarity over the next three weeks. Last week I said this was my Derby sleeper and based on the lack of respect he received from Churchill Downs I still believe that. He is a proven fighter, made Tapit Trice run is guts out to beat him a neck, and, like Reincarnate, showed he can shrug off a slow start, adjust to having to come from far back for the first time, and still rally to finish in the money. In his case he had to go nine to 10-wide at the top of the stretch to do it. To say he has a strong pedigree would be a gross understatement. We’ll go into that in detail next week. Until he proves otherwise, I believe he is a serious horse.
15—Verifying (Brad Cox, Justify – Diva Delite, by Repent)
He breezed a strong five furlongs in 1:01 1/5 for the Arkansas Derby, where I am looking for a huge move forward off his troubled fourth in the Rebel Stakes. He is one of many Derby prospects who have had their progress stopped or slowed down abruptly either by bad trips, track condition, or other reasons not reported by their connections, such as bleeding, lung infections or whatever. His progress was only slightly hampered because we all saw the traffic problems he had, and there is no reason why he shouldn’t get back on track with a clean trip in the Arkansas Derby. Let’s not forget this is a horse who was able to finish second in the Champagne Stakes off one six-furlong maiden race. He just has to show some consistency and prove that race was for real, even if it was on a sloppy track. We also have to remember that two races back he finished eight lengths ahead of Two Eagles River, who came back to win an allowance race by four lengths over Disarm.
KNOCKING ON THE DOOR
Although we mentioned some of them already, several Louisiana Derby horses were out for their final works at Fair Grounds on Saturday, including INSTANT COFFEE (5f in 1:01), SUN THUNDER (1:01 1/5), and TAPIT’S CONQUEST (1:02 1/5), along with Arkansas Derby hopefuls VERIFYING (1:01 1/5) and CONFIDENCE GAIN (:50). We’re putting Confidence Game on hold for now until we see how he’s doing over the next week or so.
At Palm Beach Downs, KINGSBARNS, who is making quite a leap to 1 3/16 miles in the Louisiana Derby, breezed a half in :49 3/5. Todd Pletcher must think a lot of this colt to run him in this spot off only two lifetime races. But both were extremely impressive, and he got so much schooling in his troubled career debut that his lack of racing might be deceptive. I think he could be a very special horse. Spendthrift Farm surely thought a lot of him when they paid $800,000 for him at the Fasig-Tipton July yearling sale. They and Pletcher both feel it’s worth the shot to find out just what they have before the Kentucky Derby, especially considering what they have could be a lot.
DISARM, who will also be trying to pick up enough points to get into the Kentucky Derby in the Louisiana Derby, despite having only one mile allowance race in almost eight months, turned in a solid six-furlong work in 1:13. There is no question this colt has the talent and has always been highly thought of. It’s just a question of whether he is ready to take on 11 opponents, including several experienced stakes horses off that one second place allowance finish. But that was actually a stronger race than you might think with the front-running winner coming home so fast and him matching strides with him in the final furlong. He also was caught looking around at the start and broke a few steps slowly, but they have been working on that. Now he gets Joel Rosario. I happen to think he and Kingsbarns are very serious horses who should run big despite their inexperience.
While on the subject of lightly raced, but talented horses, SHOPPER’S REVENGE is another to keep an eye on after an impressive 5 1/4-length maiden win at Oaklawn and a strong second in an allowance race rallying on the far outside after having to go six-wide at the head of the stretch. He is one who definitely will appreciate the extra distance and I know Steve Asmussen is very high on him.
The big question with all these horses will be the pace, as there looks to be only one serious speed horse and that is the Gun Runner Stakes winner JACE’S ROAD, who has to bounce back off his dismal showing in the Southwest Stakes. But his only two poor races have come in the slop so it will be interesting to see how far he will take them on a fast track. If he gets loose on the lead watch out. This horse on his best day is more than capable of wiring this field. On a fast track he has a 6 1/4-length maiden win and a 5 1/2-length wire-to-wire score in the Gun Runner Stakes over eventual runaway Gotham winner Raise Cain. And his other race on a fast track was a close third, beaten 1 1/2 lengths by Curly Jack, in the Iroquois Stakes coming off his maiden win.
The horse that beat Shopper’s Revenge, AIRTIME, who got through along the rail, had been claimed the race before for $50,000 by Robertino Diodoro while winning by 10 1/4 lengths, something we’ve been seeing a lot in the past few years. He worked five furlongs in 1:01 3/5 Saturday at Oaklawn and could run back in the Arkansas Derby, which is now shaping up as a very strong race.
Not too many are paying much attention to Saturday’s Jeff Ruby Steaks, despite its 100 points, but it is shaping up as an excellent race with several promising horses who will still have to make the transition to dirt. The main contenders are the Battaglia winner CONGRUENT and the Leonatus winner FUNTASTIC AGAIN, who has back-to-back runaway victories at Turfway Park. One horse to keep an eye on at a price is SCOOBIE QUANDO, who has a win and two seconds at Turfway, has a good turn of foot, and ran a big race rallying for second in the Battaglia. The son of Uncle Mo has the same connections as Gotham winner Raise Cain.
Because he was spread real thin, Doug O’Neill decided to send his recent maiden winner HENRY Q, a son of Blame, to Todd Fincher at Sunland Park to run in the Mine That Bird Derby and Sunland Derby, after which he would be returned to him. Although he didn’t beat much in the former, Henry Q suddenly found himself on the Derby trail by scoring a 14 3/4-length victory in a snappy 1:41 2/5 for the 1 1/16 miles and at this point looks to be the horse to beat in the Sunland Derby. Another O’Neill 3-year-old who found himself on the Derby trail out of nowhere was last weekend’s maiden winner I DON’T GET IT, whose three-quarter-length victory may have propelled him into the big Derby preps, with his next target possibly the Wood Memorial or Santa Anita Derby, according to O’Neill. He and the colt’s owner Paul Reddam are fearless when it comes to running horses in races that seem to be way over their head. But they have won two Kentucky Derbys together, so they have earned free passes to do whatever they want.
Also in Sunday’s Sunland Derby, Bob Baffert has entered HARD TO FIGURE, who is coming off a second, beaten a neck, in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes and has turned in two sensational works since, going six furlongs in 1:12 flat and then working five furlongs in a bullet :58 4/5, fastest of 69 works at the distance, in company with Arabian Lion.
With two horses in both the Louisiana and Arkansas Derbys, Kenny McPeek was able to send HAYES STRIKE to Laurel for this past Saturday’s Private Terms Stakes, and the son of Connect drew off to a 1 3/4-length victory at 8-1 over 8-5 favorite Coffeewithchris. Although he had only one victory, a second and a third in eight career starts, he was a fast-closing third, beaten 1 1/2 lengths, in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes and was second to Two Phil’s in the Street Sense Stakes and fourth in the Iroquois Stakes, all at Churchill Downs. From a Kentucky historic standpoint he is owned and bred by Dixiana Farms, which has been around since 1877.
A sleeper to watch in the Arkansas Derby is TWO EAGLES RIVER, who really seems to be coming into his own for trainer Chris Hartman with an impressive front-running victory over Disarm in a one-mile allowance race and then turning in brilliant works of :47 flat for a half and :59 flat for five-furlongs. What I loved most about his allowance score was his action in the stretch and the way he was striding out, as well as his fast closing fractions. I’m not sure how far he wants to go, as there is a lot of speed in the bottom of his pedigree, but the way he won that allowance race it looks like he should be dangerous up to at least 1 1/8 miles and we’ll take it from there after that.
Looking ahead to the Santa Anita Derby, trainer Terunobu Fujita is excited about running MANDARIN HERO, who is coming off a fast-closing second in a 1 1/8-mile stakes on February 23. Fujita has always dreamed of running a horse in the Santa Anita Derby, having visited the track. He says the colt’s big weapon is his acceleration in the stretch and how he loves to “chase down other horses.” He is scheduled to arrive at LAX on March 29.
But if Baffert is planning on running CAVE ROCK for his first start of the year, the trainers with Derby horses better beware. Last year’s California sensation, who I believe has more natural talent than any of them, has been tearing up the track in the morning with a pair of :58 and change works and now an outstanding seven-furlong drill in 1:25 1/5. Layoff or no layoff, if he runs in the Santa Anita Derby he could dash a lot of Derby hopes. And no matter who wins the Kentucky Derby I wouldn’t want to face him in the Preakness.
In the forgotten horse department, we have ARCTIC ARROGANCE, second in the Remsen, Jerome, and Withers, the last with blinkers added. This is one tough horse who has battled for the lead in his last five starts and already has two 1 1/8-mile races under his belt. Whether Linda Rice takes the blinkers off for the Wood Memorial we will see. Also forgotten is the horse who beat him in the Remsen, DUBYUHNELL, who ran terribly in the Sam F. Davis Stakes after steadying early. But he has been working at Palm Meadows, with a recent half-mile breeze in :48 2/5.
I haven’t been able to find out what happened to BLAZING SEVENS in the Fountain of Youth, but the good sign is that he returned to the work tab with a half-mile breeze in :49 1/5 at Payson Park. At Gulfstream Park, CYCLONE MISCHIEF, third in the Fountain of Youth, worked a half in :48 2/5 for a likely start in the Florida Derby.
I doubt that last Wednesday’s Road to the Kentucky Derby Condition Stakes at Kempton in England had any bearing on the Derby, as the winner, BRAVE EMPEROR, won by only a head, but it at least must be pointed out that the Irish-bred gelding by Scat Daddy’s son Sioux Nation has now won six straight and was coming off a listed victory in France.
Does Steve move Kingsbarns all the way up to #3? He just might.
Despite my not liking a 200 point designation of the Turfway prep I really liked Two Phils’s win….
Florida Derby, P/P and Odds
1) Jungfrau, 20-1
2) West Coast Cowboy, 20-1
3) Shaq Diesel, 30-1
4) Mage, 10-1
5) Mr. Peeks, 30-1
6) Nautical Star, 30-1
7) IL Miracolo, 30-1
8) Mr. Ripple
9) Cyclone Mischief, 8-1
10) Fort Bragg
11) Forte, 4/5
12) Dubyuhnell, 5-1
Can’t wait to dive into the PPs for this and the Arkansas. Any possible upsetters on your radar Bill?
Hi Demolition Derby
You would probably agree that the Arkansas Derby field is much tougher than the Florida Derby field. I don’t see any horse in the Florida Derby that has a chance in beating Forte. However, the morning line on Mage is 10-1, and with Luis Saez in the saddle, Mage might be worth a WPS bet.
Regarding the Arkansas Derby, I don’t believe the morning line odds have been posted, but I’m all in on Two Eagles River (regardless of his odds). I like the way he put away Disarm in that last out $100K AOC race, going one mile in 1:37.10, drawing off by 4 lengths. What really got my attention, he ran the last furlong in 12:16, which is the fastest yet run by any of the top contenders.
Good luck with your wagers.
I do agree. Wish the Florida looked more competitive.
About the Arkansas, thanks for pointing that out. Didn’t realize that horse was TER. That was definitely a strong race. Will have to dive deep into this race. Good luck to you as well.
Equinox, 132 Timeform for the Sheema.
And he wasn’t even asked.
Arkansas Derby (per DRF; odds not yet announced)
1 Bourbon Bash, Mickaelle Michel
2 Interlock Empire, David Cabrera
3 Harlocap, Ricardo Santana Jr.
4 Two Eagles River, Nik Juarez
5 Airtime, Cristian Torres
6 Angel of Empire, Flavien Prat
7 Rocket Can, Junior Alvarado
8 Reincarnate, John Velazquez
9 King Russell, Rafael Bejarano
10 Red Route One, Tyler Gaffalione
11 Kolomio, James Graham
Who are you liking Simon? Any good angles?
I was out of town (at Saratoga Springs, oddly enough) so I didn’t see the race live. Looked like the horses all ran together for most of the race. Then Wild on Ice (previous 3 Beyer figures : 60-32-74) pulled away from the elite speedballs. He does have a pretty good record (5/3-1-0) so maybe the owners will go for it and put up the $6K. I’m sure they’re very aware of what happened with Mine That Bird.
Hi Ms Blacktype
Prior to the race, I didn’t bother to check out Wild On Ice’s pedigree. There’s a significant amount of class and stamina reflected on his dam side, with inbreeding to Secretariat and El Gran Senor. Wild On Ice is certainly one to watch moving forward, possibly to the Preakness and/or the Belmont. We’ll see.
Wild on Ice is also inbreed to Wild Again … another older gelding who seems to be ready to face open company is the Louisiana-bred Touchuponastar (Star Guitar- Touch Magic by Lion Heart). He won the Star Guitar Stakes today at Fair Grounds logging an spectacular 1:42.76 only 3/5 seconds short of the Olympiad’s track record.
It would be great to have iron geldings emerging as future stars as a way to entice more people to follow horse racing and to bring back fond memories of bygone eras…
Bill, I checked out his dam side after I got back last night and his second dam is a full sister to Grade 1 (Florida Derby) winner Vicar and a half to Sheepscot, a stakes winner who produced French Guineas winner Astromer Royal. From the same family (23B) that produced champions Domino, Affirmed, Hamburg, and Twilight Tear. Not too shabby!
Wild on Ice was always right there, just off the speed–so he was running fast early, too..
My Derby Rankings for Week 10
1) Hit Show
2) Forte
3) Practical Move
4) Tapit Trice
5) Confidence Game
6) Raise Cain
7) Two Eagles River
8) Reincarnate
9) Kingsbarns
10) Red Route One
11) National Treasure
12) Geaux Rocket Ride
13) Rocket Can
14) Angel of Empire
15) Verifying
Sunland Derby Results
Wild on Ice
Low Expectations
Henry Q
Seems like BB’s ‘magic’ has vanished.
Guess all hopes now are on Reincarnate?
Still points to be earned though, so guess there is hope yet for the Baffert/Yakteen colts.
Just not a lucky year for Bob (so far).
Karma!
So Baffert’s Hard to Figure, a 1-2 favorite, faded to last. He came out of the 4-horse Baffert workout, disguised as the RB Lewis Stakes.
Do you think all those Derby wins were cheating? The Preakness and Belmont and Haskells ans Travers wins were cheating? The 36 graded NY ships were cheating? You really believe that?
I had “high expectations” for Henry Q, and “Low Expectations beat him. Go figure.
All in the name, LOL
Congrats Bill on Henry Q annihilating my favored Hard to Figure… It is hard to figure how Flavian Prat fell for a 20.4 … anyway, you were right about the son of Blame being more resilient …
I should double check but I believe that Wild on Ice will be the first Texan-bred horse in the Derby since Assault, Middleground and Sonic (1951). The first two took the Derby for Bob Kleberg’s King Ranch which was among the top breeding operations in USA …
it’s funny … if any horse player assumed a pace meltdown would have made $548 for an all exacta box costing only $30.. and $1,551.70 for a $120 trifecta with all six horses.
Sometimes the cost/benefit is so great that it makes all the risk worthwhile…
Hey Nelson
Boy, talk about a pace meltdown, this race sure qualifies for that designation.
According to the Derby media guide, there was Top Avenger in 1981, Groovy in 1986, and Jim’s Orbit in 1988.
Thanks Simon… I knew I had read it somewhere but could not remember the names…Groovy was so good that I completely forgot he was bred in Texas by Marshall T. Robinson in Fort Worth…
The 2023 Media Guide Info covers a lot of stats
You’re welcome, Nelson Maan. The media guide is indispensable.
I just realized that Wild On Ice is not nominated for Triple Crown so he is not getting the 50 points according to the CDC rules…
Till Dawn was the only Texan nominated but he is unsuccessfully running in Japan.
LOL. Well, the owner has until tomorrow to nominate Wild On Ice for just $6,000. After that, it’s $200,000. I’m assuming that the colt still earns the points even if not nominated at the time of the race.
BTW … Wild on Ice win is commendable as he really was very close to the hot pace but showed more endurance than the favorites.
New Mexico’s legendary trainer Joel Marr did a great job with the son of Tapizar… Marr is the trainer of the champion New Mexico mare Peppers Pride who was undefeated in 19 starts and shares the record of 16 consecutive wins with Citation, Mister Frisky, Cigar and Hallowed Dreams…
That field was fairly bunched, so I doubt that split was :20 4/5….
I’m sorry did they think that was a 7 furlong race? Lol
Thank you Fort Bragg for scratching and saving me money.
Just your usual upset in the 2023 Derby prep. Lol.
I smelled an upset in the NM wind (with 4 of the 6 being speed horses), but not from that one. Wild on Ice? How did he do that?
Academic! He did.
Elementary my dear Watson!
Guess I am going to eat popcorn as I watch the Derby this year.
Very, very interesting year to say the least!
How Did He Do That was the colt I thought would be the upsetter.
I was thinking One in Vermillion might just pull it off but those thoughts vanished just prior to the start. Who knows, Simon, just expect the unexpected and smile.
That was scary. I was surprised he wasn’t scratched.
Yes, so was I. Bad luck for those who had put money on him.
Sunland Derby coming, I expect Henry Q to wire the field.
San Diego State moves on to the Final Four with a match up against Florida Atlantic. A hard fought win to say the least.
The exciting Siyouni colt, Paddington, won the Madrid Handicap on Sunday at Naas for Aidan O’Brien in preparation for the upcoming English 2,000 Guineas and the Irish 2,000 Guineas.
I would have bet Henry Q if Fort Bragg didn’t scratch. His odds will be too low now. Curious to see if he puts in a Maximum Security type performance. That’s who he reminded me of in his last.
Maybe after it’s over you’ll say How Did He Do That. 😉
Yes, you’re right there, how did he do that? Must’ve have read the form guide. Lol.
Update on Country Grammer.
Frankie said he seemed tired in the DWC race.
After the race he was scoped and had lots of mucous in his airways.
No report so far of an infection…hopefully he does not have one which will delay his return home.
I would think Bob will give him a much needed rest when he is back in the US.
Perhaps he should’ve passed on race.
Guessing that the mucous and congestion had something to do with it. Possibly the beginnings of shipping fever though no reports of a temperature.
You may be right, he ran his heart out in the Saudi Cup. Perhaps for him it was too quick of a turn around.
Agreed! Now will need awhile for summer races.
Regarding today’s running of the Sunland Derby, Henry Q appears to be the colt to beat. He was super impressive in winning the Mine That Bird Stakes, going 8.5 furlongs in a swift 1:41.52, drawing off by 14 lengths. A win today, will put another Todd Pletcher colt in the Derby starting gate. Needless to say, Pletcher is loaded with Derby prospects.
Hi Bill … Henry Q is trained by Todd Fincher… not Todd Pletcher as you hints in your post. The son of Blame was really impressive winning the Mine that Bird Stakes at Sunland with a Classic 5.95 last 1/16 but I like Hard to Figure to win an impending tough speed duel …
BTW let’s have a side challenge with your super fast Henry Q against my favorite Hard to Figure… and let the best horse win.
You’re right Nelson, my bad.
Sounds good Nelson, I’ll take that challenge.
Actually Todd FINCHER is subbing for Doug O’Neill who is Henry Q’s trainer of record. I had to do a double take myself.
Love the side challenge! 🙂 I looked hard at both of these colts. Such a fun head to head, last out analysis, faster lone speed vs. slightly slower battling the whole way. The difference for me came down to that one tap of the whip on Henry Q where it looked like he put it into another great, coming home in under 6 seconds. That was impressive.
A belated Happy Birthday to Sunday Silence and his son, Deep Impact who were both born on March 25th. And congratulations to their Japanese connections who won on his birthday in Dubai. What an awesome birthday present. How can there not be Horse Racing Gods?
Saw SS son @ Gains.
The gate at Churchill Downs is starting to get pretty full. I count 12 horses with 40 points or more. Of course there will be defections and injuries and there are still seven more points races that can produce new shooters, but a surprisingly number of good ones are on the bubble or must place in the top three of their final prep to get in the Derby. (Yikes! That includes my #3 horse, Reincarnate and Bill Dawson’s pick to win it all, Hit Show.) Here’s the points list as I understand it:
In the Gate:
1. Two Phil’s 123
2. Derma Sotogake 100
3. Kingsbarns 100
4. Forte 90
5. Practical Move 60
6. Confidence Game 57
7. Angel of Empire 54
8. Raise Cain 54
9. Tapit Trice 50
10. Jace’s Road 45
11. Disarm 40
12. Dura Erede 40
Bubble Horses:
13. Sun Thunder 34
14. Red Route One 33
15. Continuar 30
Must Earn Points:
16. Classic Car Wash 26
17. Hit Show 20
18. Geaux Rocket Ride 20
19. Reincarnate 15
20. Skinner 15
Thanks Ms Blacktype for this excellent summary.
I see today’s Sunland Park Derby as non relevant as Baffert’s Hard to Figure is the most likely winner of it…
We should include the honest Stakes runner National Treasure (0 points) and Slip Mahoney (20 points) in the “must earn points” group. They might be getting the required points in the Blue Grass/SA Derby and Wood Memorial respectively.
Artic Arrogance and Hit Show are aiming for a minimum third place and fourth place respectively in the Wood Memorial to get a Derby spot.
Reincarnate needs at least an ensuring placing in the Arkansas Derby and so does Fort Bragg in the Florida Derby.
Verifying requires a huge comeback for a showing in the Blue Grass … and Geaux Rocket Ride should get his Derby ticket in the Santa Anita Derby…
the nine new entrants could be:
Reincarnate,
HIt Show,
Geaux Rocket Ride,
Fort Bragg,
Slip Mahoney,
National Treasure
Artic Arrogance
Red Route One
Classic Car Wash or Skinner
We make a good tag team!, Nelson! I think good horses like Reincarnation and Hit Show —and probably National Treasure — will step up to the plate. There will undoubtedly be a couple of surprises as well.
And I’ll be really disappointed if Red Route One doesn’t make the field. He always finishes well.
It is interesting that there are not real speedsters/ proven front runners in the first 12 … Kingsbarns has the huge advantage of being very quick at the break but he can also rate… Not surprising If you remember that he had worked 2 furlongs in a scintillating 20.3 seconds for the Fasig-Tipton under track show at Gulfstream.
The beautiful son of Uncle Mo was the fourth most expensive ($800K) in that 2-year-old in training auction. The most expensive horses were the filly Ruby Nell (Bold d’Oro-Rich Love by Not for Love, $ 1.2M), the colts Illustrated (Justify – Appealing Sophie by Successful Appeal, $1.1M) and Juan Valdez (Medaglia d’Oro – Baffled by Distorted Humor, $900K).
None of those expensive horses has won yet… so Spendthrift Farm is very fortunate to have procured such a special horse among so many sparkling young horses in that auction…
Derma Sotogake is a similar type of runner… he is not inherently a pacemaker but he felt so good in Dubai that ended up winning gate to wire… one of the only “need-to-lead” type in Arctic Arrogance and Reincarnate is also more than able to be a strong pacemaker.
I am curious to find if the Florida Derby could unfold a real pacemaker for the Derby.
The early speed could come from the foreign invaders as it did last year. And you know the result of that!
Thanks Ms Blacktype and Nelson, for your tag-teaming effort in providing various scenarios in the upcoming preps. With the continuing upsets in the Derby preps it’s playing havoc in predicting the final field for the Kentucky Derby. Good luck.
I look for a big performance by Two Eagles River in the Arkansas Derby. He beat Disarm last out by 4 open lengths, who came back to finish 2nd in the Louisiana Derby. I believe Two Eagles River will make the Derby starting gate with a win or 2nd place finish in the Arkansas Derby.
Hi, Ms. Blacktype. Thanks for the rundown. Another way of looking at the points leaderboard is seeing where past derby winners found themselves when the dust cleared (i.e., after the preps).
2013 Orb ranked 1st with 150 points
2014 California Chrome ranked 1st with 150 points
2015 American Pharoah ranked 4th with 160 points
2016 Nyquist ranked 2nd with 130 points
2017 Always Dreaming ranked 7th with 100 points
2018 Justify ranked 9th with 100 points
2019 Maximum Security ranked 6th with 100 points (Country House, 15th, 50 pts)
2021 Medina Spirit ranked 8th with 74 points (Mandaloun, 10th, 52 pts)
2022 Rich Strike ranked 20th with 21 points
Nice analysis, Nelson. The data suggests that in most years horse with around 100 points wil win the race. That narrows it down— a little. Another reason to like Two Phil’s (a synthetic/mud specialist). His trainer said yesterday he liked to run while covered up by other horses. He’s likely to experience that at Churchill.
Oops, I meant Simon!
Good point Ms Blacktype… nothing better than a horse who enjoys “playing” with surrounding horses and then try to separate himself at the end for the fun of it… Two Phil’s is the type of horse who could greatly benefit from good luck in a race like the Derby.
Rich Strike after the preps was 21st – and qualified as an “Also Eligible”….
After the scratch, he was 20th. That’s how he got in the gate.
You wrote – ” dust cleared (i.e., after the preps)” not “after the scratch”.
There is some time between the last prep – The Lexington Stakes and the scratching after the field is announced.
I don’t see much early speed. ..both wire to wire (yesterday) prep winners are stalkers….
They both WERE early speed in those races. What’s your point?
That isn’t Derby speed! Trainer of the Dubai winner said they want him to stalk, and Kingsbarns walked the dog I do not see a lot of early speed this year, was and is my point….
Continuar (JPN) is no more on the “Bubble” His connections have accepted the qualification via the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby. His 3rd in the UAE Derby was enough to get him through as the first two placegetters are in the main stream for qualification.
It was a successful experiment by Turfway in getting the 100 point prep., producing a worthy winner in Two Phil’s, who got a good Beyer for what it’s worth. I think Todd P. will send Major Dude back to turf and stay at a mile though I’d like to see him try the max. distance and work his way back down if necessary. I’m a fan, but the race showed he is better on turf, the post was a bit of a problem and he was nearer the front than usual, but he lost ground in the stretch where he would normally make it up. Two Phil’s ran a pretty good time, I don’t know if AW is faster or slower than real dirt.
Agreed!
What experiment?
Well….congrats to the winners of Saturday’s prep races…Two Phil’s (101 Beyer), Kingsbarns (95 B) and of course Derma Sotogate.
As I gather Derma Sotogate will be heading straight to Kentucky from Dubai after leaving Japan to run in the UAE Derby or a trip of about 13,000 total miles. This horse has earned it but I still remember Mendelssohn winning the same UAE Derby by 18 lengths in track record time after making a trip from Ireland and then finishing last in the KD Derby.
Mandarin Hero, which needs to finish in the top three of the Santa Anita Derby (a race in this hemisphere) and will be going straight to Los Angeles from Japan and then perhaps to Kentucky or several thousand miles less than either DS or M did.
Again, DS deserves it and earned it but wouldn’t the Preakness might make more sense considering the travel miles?
John, I have read that the Japanese horses travel very well.
I was heartbroken over what happened to Mendy in the Derby and many of the other colts as well.
CHD should have postponed that race. Very fortunate that there were not more serious injuries.
Aiden took full responsibility for not having Mendy prepared for the conditions. Ryan Moore, arguably one of the top jockeys in the
world was absolutely disgusted and rightfully so in my opinion. That start was horrendous, several colts almost went down. Ryan made the right decision to ease the colt.
You might recall the article Steve wrote for BH after the race and the amount of mud in these colts eyes, mouth and throats.
What did you mean in saying “CHD should have postponed that race”?
Exactly what I said. Had friends at the race and they posted live videos of the horrible conditions on the track that day.
It was dangerous and only by the grace of God that no horse or jockey was injured.
Okay. Thanks. I don’t think God’s grace had anything to do with no horse or jockey being injured. Regardless, the fact is that no horse or jockey was injured. Twenty-horse fields in any conditions can produce disastrous or near disastrous results. CD is not going to “postpone” a Derby just for inclement weather. Attending were 157,000 fans, with no debate that I can recall about delaying or postponing the event.
Here’s why Dubai and Turfway shouldn’t get 200 point races: 20% of this year’s Derby field will come out of those races …..
The Dubai Derby winner WAS impressive….he SHOULD go to Kentucky….buy not the 2nd place horse, we’re talking about a race that has had 18 runners go in the Derby and the best finish has been fifth..
Forte will be a huge favorite in the Florida Derby. But what about the other final preps? The Ark Derby could have three graded stakes winners. Angel of Empire, I think, would be the only last-out graded stakes winner. So he will probably be a slight favorite. Hit Show will be favored in the Wood, and Tapit Trice in the Blue Grass. You’d think that Practical Move, with two straight graded wins, would be the choice in the SA Derby. But it’s California, so nothing would surprise me.
Simon, favoritism has been a poison challis in the Derby preps thus far. Are you hoping to bet against the ‘presumed favorites’ in the upcoming preps with good odds on alternate runners? Ha ha Seriously, though, nothing would surprise me in the results of the upcoming preps. Makes for fun, if nothing else.
Well, 7 of 16 preps this year have been won by favorites. I’m pretty sure that I haven’t bet on a winning OR losing favorite all year. Closest I came was probably yesterday with the second favorite in New Orleans. It’s always fun. But isn’t it more fun when you can beat the favorite with a 9-2 shot or better?
Simon, the Sunland Derby’s another one to mark down. So that’s 7 out of 17. Lol.
LOL. And yet another prep in which I didn’t bet the favorite. Or the second favorite!
Hi Steve – I’m over the moon on the performance of KingsBarns and Disarm in the LA Derby. I am so glad to have bet both of them in previous KDFW at big odds. They both finished the 1 3/16 well, so the Derby Distance should be no problem. I’m hoping Rosario stays on Disarm. Prat surely will stick with the undefeated KingsBarns. These are 2 colts which will certainly fly quickly up your Derby rankings Steve. We have both been high on Disarm from the get go, and KingsBarns proved that he is the real deal. Exciting times ahead for Disarm and KingsBarns. Looks like Forte has some company at the top after all. I’m so glad I boxed KB and Disarm with each other, the field and with Forte.
1JoeP, It’s always exciting to be alive with a good-priced future wager going into the Derby. Good going!
Hi Simon – agree and am very excited about my KDFW wagers on Disarm and KingsBarns. I have hit in the past with California Chrome and Always Dreaming at a price.
Saw Chrome prevail.
For all you basketball fans out there, the San Diego State Aztecs are on a roll, and have an excellent chance to win the NCAA Basketball Tournament. They take on Creighton next, the team that knocked the Aztecs out of last year’s tournament in the first round. This current Aztecs team is much improved over last year, with a nine man rotation that are about as physical as you can get. Don’t bet the farm like I said about the Eagles winning the Super Bowl, but the Aztecs might be worth a reasonable wager to win it all.
GO AZTECS!
The Cinderella story of the tournament: the Florida Atlantic University Owls. Give a hoot!
I expect San Diego St. to beat Creighton tomorrow, in which case they’ll play Florida Atlantic next.
It’s too early to say that Florida Atlantic is the “Cinderella Story” of the tournament. When the San Diego St. Aztecs take down Florida Atlantic, in the semi-final, it’s the Aztecs that should be referred to as the “Cinderella Story”, not Florida Atlantic.
I agree about SD State beating Creighton, but have you see the way UConn is dismantling Gonzaga?!
Thanks for the input Ms Blacktype.
Yes, I watched the UCONN vs Gonzaga game, and was blown away by UCONN’s impressive performance.
I’d love to see SDSU matched up against UCONN in the final game. However, first things first, SDSU has to get by Creighton today, and then Florida Atlantic. And, UCONN will have to get by the winner of the Miami/Texas game.
I like Texas in that game.
Enjoy the games, they should be great.
SDSU pulled it out late for a 57-56 win over Creighton.
As a side note, Creighton beat UCONN twice this season, so I’d be glad to see SDSU match up against UCONN in the Finals.
I believe UCONN will beat the winner of the Texas/Maimi game.
Bill, in the preseason poll, SDSU was in the Top 20. FAU wasn’t even an afterthought. Had you even HEARD of FAU before the tournament?
Creighton will win
Get ready for a rude awakening. 🙂
Scoreboard baby,
San Diego St. 57, Creighton 56
Fort Bragg was a double digit longshot 5th, in the San Felipe …now he’s 5-1 second choice in a 12 horse Florida Derby….
You never know, Matthew, the way this year’s Derby prep races are becoming so unpredictable Fort Bragg might just win the Florida Derby. Who knows?
Worst Fla Derby field in a long time! Forte will be at least 3-5.
That was my point, mewonders is Forte will get the edge that he needs, beating up on overmetched foes….he did beat Blazing Sevens but that horse didn’t fire, now his main competition was well beaten in San Felipe at a big price…
Yeah. I knew what you meant, Matthew. But I’m sure if we looked back at previous derby winners, we’d find plenty that had an easy time in the last prep.
OK he was 7-1, in the gr2 San Felipe, running a well beaten fifth….by the way—two from Turfway are probably in—two closers, they went :49 3/5 yesterday at Fairgrounds, is there ANY pace this year?
Poor Steve, he has so many horses to change after the races today. It seems overwhelming to me.
I’m with you, Terri — there are suddenly a whole lot more horses with enough points to be in the gate while last week’s hotshots (Skinner, Geaux Rocket Ride) could be on the outside looking in if they don’t perform in their last preps.
Thank you Ms. Blacktype,
There goes Steve Haskin’s weekend.
I see Steve only replacing Instant Coffee with KINGSBARNS… Steve’s comments about the son of Uncle Mo are very convincing more like anticipating a breakthrough performance in the Louisiana Derby.
Disarm and Two Phil’s will be just adorning the Knocking on the Door section while waiting for the more relevant Florida and Arkansas Derbies next week…!
It would not surprise me were Steve to put Disarm above Kingsbarns—-no way will they run :49 3/5 in the Kentucky Derby..
Matthew, I would like to encourage you to watch Kingsbarns maiden and allowance races; he has a versatile running style. Obviously, the horse did only what he had to do to win the Louisiana Derby. He was having fun out there; just galloping along. I always throw speed figures out the window when the pacesetter is uncontested. The other horses had no interest in pressing him.
Kingsbarns has the pedigree to run all day long. The tail is inundated with stamina; there is a strong Princequillo influence past the 5x. Princequillo was one of the greatest long-distance runners of all time. He also was an influential broodmare sire; after all he was the broodmare sire of the greatest horse of all time, Secretariat.
In conclusion, he has the speed, stamina, and versality to be a major player in the derby.
Ok I realize I’m using a little imagination here, but if you look just above in the Knocking On The Door, paragraphs 2,3,4, and 5, Steve gave out the superfecta in the Louisiana Derby! Paid $350 for a dime!! (flip flop Jace’s Road and Shoppers Revenge).
We need to pay closer attention to Steves write up! Nice pick Steve!!
I was gonna write the same thing. Of course I didn’t bet it. Steve always gives out live horses.
ATTN: Simon
On Derby Rankings – Week 8, I posted a comment that the only horse that had a “chance” to beat Instant Coffee was
Kingsbarns.
You replied, “C’mon Bill. The other 10 horses don’t have a chance?
My simple one word reply was, “NOPE”.
Kingsbarns wired the field. I rest my case. 🙂
You’re right! LOL. I bet Kingsbarns at the last minute. I hadn’t settled on any horse until then.
But, seriously, lots of horses had a chance. That’s horse racing. I didn’t like the favorite and stated the case several times. That layoff was a concern.
No problem Simon, I hope you made some money today.
In Derby Futures Pool 3, I keyed Hit Show on top of Kingsbarns in a $2.00 exacta p/w, which would return, $4,891.
In Pool 5, I’ve got the same bet, Hit Show on top of Kingsbarns in a $2.00 exacta p/w, which would return, $3,076.
That works out to $7,967 plus $100 to win on Hit Show at 77-1 (7,874) = $15,841.
I can dream can’t I?
Ha! No. Kingsbarns got me even for the day. Good luck with your dreams!
Thanks Simon
Good luck to you as well
Disarm three steadies closes for 2nd I hope he makes the Derby..
Slow splits—nobody but Disarm closed the one/two/four horses were all up there early—Joel got caught in a closed pocket—but I think he gets into the Derby! IF….he is not bottled up he may have made that a close finish..
Matthew, the race was so slow. Nothing here to frighten the top three.
Today, 3-25, Hit Show breezed 6 furlongs in 1:12.60 (3/25) over the Fair Grounds track. It appears Brad Cox has this colt right on schedule for the upcoming Wood Momerial on April 8th.
Also today, Confidence Game breezed 5 furlongs in 1:01.60 (6/25) over the Fair Grounds track for trainer Keith Desormeaux.
He (CG), has enough points to make the Derby starting gate, so it will be interesting to see if Mr. Desormeaux points him to another Derby prep race, or just train up for the Kentucky Derby. His win in the Rebel Stakes was quite impressive, IMO.
Playing duck, duck, goose with horses.
The bet is in. Let the fun begin.
$100 Win/Place – Kingsbarns
I’m with you! But not as big a bet. 🙂
Right on Simon, congrats!!
I think you were a subliminal inspiration. Well, maybe not so subliminal. 😉
Congrats DD … you collected $870 out of your $200 bet…!
Disarm did well too…!
Thanks Nelson! I changed it to $125 Win, $75 Place at the last minute, so I got back a little more, $927.50. I’d post a screenshot of my TVG payout if I could. 🙂
Steve Two unrelated points:
Blood Horse just posted an article and interview with Keith Desormeaux about Confidence Game. He is deciding if he will have another prep race for CG as he has already raced 7 times. And the horse is a bit of a hot head, so he wants him to train and chill out for the Triple Crown races. And he’s thinking of all of the Triple Crown races and not just the Kentucky Derby.
I think it would be better if all of the publications would list the pedigree of the Japanese horses in their articles. So many of their horses are from American bred horses, it would be great for the sport if the horses’ pedigree would stimulate an interest from American and European horse players, breeders, and fan.
This publication has already done that in depth with Derma Sotogake after the Saudi Derby and will repeat it this week.
Has it been rather sudden, this dominance of Japan Racing?…Breeders Cup, Saudi Cup, Dubai Cup DOMINANCE……Good breeding I guess….I hope. …
Almost 50 years in the making Matthew.
They breed for speed and stamina as Nelson mentioned below and I would add, soundness and durability.
In my opinion they have turned the breeding of Thoroughbreds into an art. Their training centers, racetracks are state of the art.
They scoop up horses from rhe sales such as Mind Your Biscuits and breed their well bred mares to them.
They also love this sport with a passion we don’t see much of in the United States anymore.
One day they will win the Kentucky Derby and possibly the Triple Crown, maybe not in my lifetime, but one day.
You are so right Lynda King.
I just explained to Mathew that Japan’s dominance in the sport started the moment they purchased and exported Sunday Silence to Japan.
Sunday Silence had conformation issues, much like Storm Cat. However, Storm Cat’s owner had a great deal of wealth and could do complimentary breedings with him until he became popular.
Unlike American Breeders, Japanese breeders look beyond conformation, pedigree, and popularity. A horse who is a champion has to have a great deal of “heart” or will to fight and win in them.
Sunday Silence was in a serious trailer accident and had been critically ill when he was a young colt. He not only was a fighter on the track, but he fought for his own survival.
Thanks again for sharing your insights.
Hey Terri, Sunday Silence also survived a deadly virus as a weanling.
Mitono O won the Fukuryu [no offense intended] Stakes in gate to wire fashion, making him the leader on the Japan Road to the Derby. His connections are considering it. Mitono O’s dam is by Ky Derby winner Thunder Gulch.
Simon, does Mitono O have any Derby points from that race? I see it took place today. Only Japanese points race listed on drf is the Cattleya, won by Continuar who intriguingly finished a decent 3rd today in the UAE Derby.
Ms Blacktype, this was the final race of the Japan series and this colt leads in points. In other words, he goes to the Derby if the connections say yes.
Thanks, Simon — could be THREE Japanese horses in the gate in that case. Wild!
Mathew W: Japan’s dominance started when they first exported Sunday Silence to Japan. He is now in 70% of Japanese horses’ pedigrees.
In Japan, the breeders not only look at the conformation, but the “heart” of the horse. The “heart of the horse” does not refer to the size of the heart but the horse’s willingness to fight for the win.
Sunday Silence did not have a great conformation, but he was a fighter the moment he came out of his dam’s womb. He overcame a trailer accident and illness while he was a young horse.
Terri, totally agree!
Japan was not dominating the Breeders, Dubai, Saudi Cups twenty years ago or ten years ago it is phenomenal how Japan is kicking boots right now….but I don’t recall progeny of Sunday Silence dominating in the Breeders, Saidi, Dubai Cups….
Matthew, unless I misunderstood your question above (to which I responded “50 years in the making”), Terri and I both were answering your question.
Japan’s rise to being a force on the International scene has been a gradual one. They have building an impressive broodmare band for years drawing on European bloodlines. Sunday Silence resulted in the speed they wanted.
It can take years to develop a breeding line for any breed of horse not just Thoroughbreds.
Sunday Silence and the broodmares they acquired became their foundation bloodlines.
Equinox for example is one of the results of their careful breeding program.
Sunday Silence proved not only to be a sire of sires but a broodmare sire as well.
You are correct, however, Japan did not dominate 20 years ago.
The Dubai carnival isn’t the pinnacle of racing, have to see what happens in the summer/fall turf racing season.
Did you even watch Equinox’s race or read comments on Twitter from other trainers including Graham Motion and the other jockeys and sports commentators around the world. Several even commented that he was better than Flightline. Up to a point I somewhat agree with that. He is so fluid, so faultless, so effortless in his stride.
This horse is poetry in motion. Christophe did not sit chilly in that saddle, he was ice cold, never moved, never raised his crop or jiggle the reins.
That race was so remindful of Secretariat’s Belmont and his last race.
Watched a slow motion replay of Equinox, he puts his hind foot in the same spot as his front hoof. He was in control start to finish, winning that race on his own terms.
I simply do not understand why some on here cannot appreciate the performances of these Japanese race horses.
I thought he was impressive, but he still has to compete in the big races and face the best competition. The Dubai turf stakes are not that, but they had some very good UK horses in them, who didn’t do that well.
Arc winner Tony Bin was already at stud in Japan before Sunday Silence.
Ushba Tesaro…Congratulations!
Japan has struck gold with the Sunday Silence/Kingmambo cross!
Equinox, one of those horse that just takes my breath away. Congratulations Japan!
Japan ran 1-2-3 in the UAE Derby. No matter what your opinion of the winner or second and third place finishers, there’s a good chance that at least two of them will be in the gate at the Kentucky Derby. Just listened to the (translated) interview with Derma’s trainer, and he said the horse had never won going start to finish, or even run that way before. The preps will be coming fast and furious over the next three weeks, but don’t overlook these talented Japanese horses.
Yes, Ms Blacktype, with only the top three colts on Steve’s list looking dangerous, this year could be a good time for the Japanese to chance their arm at taking home some roses.
The final preps, which start today, have a way of changing our Derby perceptions. I can almost guarantee that our thoughts at this moment will change by the evening of April 8. As for the expected East-West showdown, don’t get your hopes up. This century, only one matchup featuring the first two favorites (one from east and one from west) produced an expected finish–that was in 2004. In the 1980s and 1990s, only the derby duels of ’89 and ’97 gave bettors a thrill.
Well Simon, the US preps this weekend, thus far anyway, have not been very inspiring. If nothing else, the results confirm that the top three are in those positions for good reason. Hopefully, the next two weekends will add some spice to a rather bland Derby Trail.
Perhaps, the racing gods are favorably looking over the land of the rising sun?
I’m an agnostic about racing gods.
The La Derby was the only weekend prep that I expected to be impactful for the Ky Derby. As much as I enjoyed Kingsbarns’ win, I’m not sure than he’s a major contender in May. With Jace’s Road in post 11, Flavien Prat was determined to get Kingsbarns to the lead right out of the gate. It worked. Pletcher has no problem bringing a 3-race horse to the Derby, but none of them has ever been close (0 for 6, never on the board). Kingsbarns is not Justify. Disarm is probably a more likely contender.
Epicenter won the Louisiana Derby in a time of 1:54.38; Kingsbarns ran the same course in 1:57.33. That’s about 15 lengths to the betterment of Epicenter. Not even the racing gods can help with that difference.
Derma Sotogake was pretty impressive in winning UAE Derby. Japan horses ran 1-4! Maybe he will be Derby speed? I put $10 (only) at 200-1 last week ay Circa, wish I were a bit more aggressive!
He was indeed …
Derma Sotogate’s time for the 1 3/16* mile was an outstanding 01:55:81 close to Mendelssohn’s track record of 01:55:18.
The son of the two-time New York Horse of the Year and world class sprinter, Mind your Biscuits, will be one of the main pacesetters in the Kentucky Derby.
Interesting cross of speed over stamina …
3rd time’s the charm through the PPs?
I think I found my fave 3yo of this crop. I just watched every race Tapit’s Conquest has run. This horse has guts! My kinda horse.
Gotta take a flyer on him in the Louisiana. Hopefully he’s on a pop cycle 3rd off the layoff.
SoCal 3yos this year are strong—maiden races have been strong…there’s Forte and Tapit Trice but there are several this year in the west! I can usually judge a good racehorse, there are many out here…
I agree. Heavier hitters on the West Coast.
it is funny how I was just reviewing how the West has been doing in the Derby against the East since 1952…
A new cycle started with I’Ll Have Another; there have been 7 California based horses winning the Derby (taking Medina Spirit as the real time winner) and 4 “Eastern representatives”…for the last 11 years the tally is 64% for the West and 34% for the East.
It is marked contrast to the 70% wins for the East from 1952 to 2011…seems like it was East horses exclusively winning the Derby before that period (at least since 1923).
AS Steve alluded to last week, there could be another spirited East-West rivalry this year courtesy of Forte and Practical Move. Also, Reincarnate, Skinner, National Treasure and Geaux Rocket Ride could be stepping up as prominent west flag bearers…
Nice work, Nelson Maan. In comparing east and west, we must also consider the proportion of west-based horses and east-based horses entered in the Derby. My guess is that the east has a substantial edge. So the numbers you present are stronger than at first glance. I don’t believe that Authentic’s September Derby should be included in your analysis. It simply wasn’t a real Derby. As for Medina Spirit’s “win,” well, we won’t go there. 🙂 Eventual winner Mandaloun was not west-based.
One other thing to consider. In the time span you presented, a couple of horses based in California qualified for the Derby by winning big preps at GP and CD (i.e., Nyquist and American Pharoah).
Sorry, meant Oaklawn, not CD.
Thanks for your reply Simon. You are right about the numeric advantage of the East based horses against the Western hopefuls.
This fact makes the accomplishment of the West since 2012 more impressive.
There are also horses who started their(2-y-old) careers in the East and then moved to train in California like Hill Gail, Affirmed
and Bold Forbes…
I guess the point is the seductive aspect of the East-West rivalry that also exists in other sports…
Lakers vs Celtics!
Bold Forbes began in Puerto Rico…
Yes Matthew… Bold Forbes won five races in Puerto Rico to be named Puerto Rican champion 2-year-old male in 1975. Then moved to the USA starting at Belmont and Saratoga where he won the Tremont and the Saratoga Special respectively… spent the winter at Santa Anita and came back to Aqueduct for the Bay Shore and Wood Memorial.
His Bay Shore and Wood Memorial wins in Stakes record (7 furlongs in 1:20 4/5 and 9 furlongs in 1:47.40 respectively) made him a solid Derby contender.
The son of Irish Castle brought the same exhilaration to the Latin American fans as Canonero II did 5 years earlier…
Hi Steve – I just watched the UAE Derby and the Japanese horses dominated finishing 1-4. The winner won easily from a forward position and he is coming to the KY Derby. The runner up also ran well and has the points to get in if they choose to come over. At least the winner and maybe 2 Japanese horses coming to Louisville. I’m sticking with my 2 KDFW Horses in the LA Derby, Disarm and KingsBarns. I will be playing the 5,6/2,5,6/2,5,6 TRI. I will only use those two in my P5. Going with 1,3,6,8,9/2,3/1,5,6/3,4,5/5,6. Looks like some of the pace in the Derby will be coming from Japan. This UAE Derby winner looked impressive to me.
A hotmrse that gets beat 5 lengths in Dubai is coming to Louisville? Mehopes not! I do hope the winner comes, he will get bet down….
Just don’t like TWO Dubai horses coming…remember only a year ago an also eligible WON….
Rich Strike, brought to you by the 1-2 finishers of the UAE Derby, both setting blazing early fractions.
Simon that’s a nice winner, and Mendelssohn was nice, and the Thunder horse …but the Dubai Derby should not yield TWO Derby starters, I’m sorry! Especially the one that finished 5 increasing lengths behind the winner, it’s NOT a major prep!
At the most, it should be a 50-20-15-10-5 race. And I’m not convinced it deserves THAT!
What makes you so sure that both horses are coming? CD wants to make sure that at least one Japanese horse is there on the first Saturday in May.
The UAE Derby is also an event not just for Japanese horses. Previously many US horses came over and obtained qualification into the KD. So its just happens to be time that the Japanese bred horses start strutting there stuff. They’ve done it in Australia and the Breeders’ Cup events and now its time to see them perform in the US Classic events. Good luck to them!
There is a possibility that a third Japanese horse qualifies as the leading pointgetter from the “Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby”.
Not to mention the fourth horse, who gets 20 points.
Fourth horse in the UAE Derby, that is. The third horse can go if they want to go. He gets 30 points!
I don’t think twenty points will be enough to qualify….
It’s extremely difficult to predict. Here are the number of points earned by the last horse to qualify in the points era:
2022 (21)
2021 (10)
2019 (40)
2018 (29)
2017 (30)
2016 (32)
2015 (20)
2014 (20)
2013 (10)
This year each event has extra points after expansion from 4 places to 5 places.
That will skew your standings.
Looks like Tapits Conquest is running in KA Derby. I will change my TRI in LA Derby to 5,6/2,5,6,9/2,5,6,9.
Matthew, and others, there is an excellent article on The Owner Breeder website:
Japanese Revolution by Nancy Sexton. The article gives you a fuller explanation on how the Japanese improved their bloodlines.
Tim Yakteen must have read Steve’s comments about an out-of-town coming to the Florida Derby fishing for easier 40 points… the trainer has confirmed to various horse racing sites that he is taking Fort Bragg to face champion Forte on April 1st.
Yakteen is scratching Fort Bragg from the Sunland Park Derby leaving a clear path for Baffert’s Hard to Figure to win as the 2-1 favorite in the 600K-prep.
Joel Rosario will guide the son of TAPIT in Florida… his performance against Forte would be a good gauge for Practical Move and Reincarnate and a bonus for us who are attending the Florida Derby.
Why would you go across country to face Forte? Maybe Hard to Figure is doing that good, and 2nd place at Sunland is only half as much as 2nd place in Florida?
Fort Bragg’s camp must have calculated that the son of Tapit is more than able to defeat Mage, Cyclone Mischief and Dubyuhnell for an easy placing.
Your horse gets more credits for a placing or showing in the Florida Derby than a win in the Sunland Derby… also, challenging the champion will be a better barometer for Fort Bragg’s Derby aspirations.
I will be very glad to see the Californian invader in person qualifying himself in the million dollar prep.
All I know is I was there, at the San Felipe walking ring— I did not like Chase the Chaos every other horse looked really nice….
Not to forget the difference in prize money, Grade 1 to Grade 3, etc. Moreover, One in Vermillion has won at Sundered Park while Hard to Figure, Henry Q, How Did He Do That could nose him out. Probably, quite a clever move on the owners part.
Fort Bragg WAS my pick, at Sunland he ran better than looks on paper in his last wide all the way was still in the hunt down the lane..
Same. I fancy One in Vermillion now for an upset.
Ha ha That’s it Nelson, they read that you and Roberta would be present for the Florida Derby so they obliged to make the race more interesting for you. Seriously, thought, the nominations for the Florida Derby aren’t that strong so why not have a go – everything to win.
Louisiana Derby
First time through the PPs I landed on Disarm. But after a double check, I’m moving to Jace’s Road.
Why?
* Willing to toss his last. Not sure if it was a bounce, but that’s my guess.
* Two back… I like his second quarter in 23.7. And I like that the rider didn’t even shake the reigns until very deep stretch. Only one tap with the whip, to which he responded by extending his lead.
* 2nd most expensive horse in the race ($510k)
* Steve’s analysis above on Jace and the pace.
* 12-1 morning line
Good luck to all.
Only one USA horse in the Dubai Cup which is fine by me! It IS a terrific field, though, and the card is thd best non-Breeders Cup card I have seen in many years …..but the highlight of the 2023 Dubai World Cup is Equinox, in the big 12 furlong turf feature, and since this IS a Derby site—I expect to see Worcester overcome his wide draw and win tomorrow..
One US horse but four US breds in the Cup….and look at the number of Irish breds, in the Turf races shades of Phil D’Amato, who stables many Irish bred turf runners. As Kentucky is to US dirt racing…Ireland is to European racing…
FS2 will offer live coverage of Dubai World Cup races starting around 8:AM Saturday in case anyone is interested.
Thanks, Lynda. I’ll set up to tape that since I am not a morning person.
You are welcome.
I am up early every morning..around 4:30 AM. Plan to watch as much as I can in between critter feeding.
So beautiful here today. High of 80. Plentiful sunshine. My tulips gorgeous this year. The survived the 3 freeze warnings we had z week ago (they were just starting to bud). Looks like my apple tree buds survived the freeze as well. Not sure about my blueberry bushes. They were in full bloom. Horses finally starting to shed out. I love Spring other than the nasty tornadic thunderstorms. Spring arrives earlier here than in Virginia Blue Ridge Mountains where I am from. Friends shared photos of the auroras from Wednesday night. They are rare in Virginia. The farm next to me was just to a family from North Carolina. They planting most of the average in strawberries. They have a few chickens too, hear the rooster. Oh the joys of living in the country. You could not pay me enough to live in a city!
Sounds like a beautiful place you have, Lynda! I live two miles from the center of a small, cool town in the Catskills of New York and can’t see a single neighboring house. (But I have the coolest neighbors, too!) It’s a great antidote for having lived in NYC for 14 years. I am from piedmont NC, so this suits me a lot better. Our spring is not as far along as yours and we’ve yet to have a bear siting, but the daffodil fronds are up and I’ve seen snow berries. Typing this in 55 degree weather on my screened porch. I never had one of these when I lived in the south, but they are perfect for the (usually) cooler summers and falls we get here.
To keep on topic, my longshot pick in the Louisiana Derby is Cagliostro. On figures, this seems like an evenly matched field, and despite all the chatter about Disarm, he’s like a lot of others in this field on form. And I believe Instant Coffee is vulnerable after his long layoff.
MsB, I agree about the Louisiana Derby being almost evenly matched and high expectations for Instant Coffee.
Really do not have a favorite in the race.
Disarm, Jace’s Road and Kingsbarn getting a lot of attention in other groups I follow.
Guess the colt I do like is Curly Jack, trained by Tom Amoss. Just like him as a trainer.
Have a friend who lives outside of Albany and she always goes to the meet at Saratoga. Very pretty where she lives, somewhat rural.
It is pretty here, lots of farms, two big lakes (hydroelectric dams), very wooded. Not far from the Savannah River. Just not as pretty as the Blue Ridge Mountains back home.
Good luck tomorrow with your bets!
Nothing is quite as pretty as the Blue Ridge! There are so many open vistas. (Especially the one from the sunset porch of the Grove Park Inn, where I worked a conference in February.) Our mountains here seem very similar, but we do not have the open views.
I live near the center of a very small town in Vermont. We had a pretty easy winter by Vermont standards, and now the snow is melting, snowdrops are beginning to blossom, and it’s maple sugaring time. As for the Louisiana Derby, I’m not going to be original–I like Instant Coffee.
We need like buttons on this page!
Jiffy, did you get snow today? We got a mint-frosty coating before it turned to icy rain. And it’s technically spring here. Not only that, I did a short bike ride late yesterday afternoon. Nuts.
It’s been mostly a rainy day and it’s raining tonight. There was a little snow mixed in at some point–I could see it on the walk–but it’s gone now. Tonight’s rain isn’t freezing–not yet–but it’s close.
Steve I’m in agreement with you about I Don’t Get It, they are going for a big prep, abd mehopes ins the Wood as I think the SA Derby will be tougher to win….I Don’t Get It looked very good, to me winning his maiden, this season maiden races at SA have been strong, he actually has run two turns twice, each race he showed talent, I don’t think they are out of their league I think this horse can run….
I was thinking about one of my favorite racehorses and stallions, Gun Runner, and a thought came up that I’d like to ask the group here:
Of all the horses you picked/bet to win the Kentucky Derby and that lost, which one turned out to be the greatest?
For me, my thoughts went to Easy Goer and Holy Bull, but those were sentimental picks because I had seen them close up before the Derby. So the one for me is Gun Runner, who I didn’t see in person but believed him to be the likely winner of the Derby (over Nyquist, who I DID see in the Florida Derby). Gun Runner came in 3rd in the Kentucky Derby. He went on to have an outstanding career, which included being named Horse of the Year in 2017.
At stud, Tapit. On the racetrack, Arts and Letters.
I was going to say Tapit and his stud career as well but stuck to the script.
Tapit is worth going off script. But the term “greatest” could apply to any capacity so I covered both bases.
The common phrase ‘worth their weight in gold’ certainly applies to Tapit, again and again and again…
Interesting concept Roberta, I’ll have to say two though.
Easy Goer: Easy Goer went on to trounce Sunday Silence in the Belmont Stakes when lasix was not legal on race-day.
Frosted: Frosted’s performance in the Met Mile was a unique performance that will probably never be repeated.
I agree with David on Easy Goer. A truly great racehorse. He died too young, with only three or four crops to race, yet he is still influential in pedigrees today.
Oh, shoot. If we’re going that far back, I’d have to rate both Damascus and Native Dancer above Easy Goer. All are on my personal list of great ones, as is Alydar.
Great question. My answer: Curlin, two-time HOY.
Hi Roberta
Thanks for posing such a fun and intriguing question.
Though I love Damascus (and would vote for him as my second choice) my top pick – by far – is Native Dancer.
He was a truly brilliant racehorse and a breed-enhancing sire. Had he lived even a half-dozen years more (he died at age 17) he would have singlehandedly shaped the thoroughbred gene pool in perpetuity. Of course, many would already said he has.
I know Native Dancer has a very special place in Nelson Mann’s heart as well.
greg (Fan of Damascus . . . and admirer of Native Dancer)
Well done Greg, I was thinking more of horses I’d actually scene in person. Native Dancer is one of the immortal greats.
Hi Greg.
You are right about the reverence to “The Grey Ghost”… his memory will live on for ever …
I Always cherish and treasure the May 31, 1954 Time magazine issue you gave me featuring him in its cover…
Point Given an absolute beast i
My Derby bets consist of a slew of horses for the exotics but the first names popping in my head are Point Given, Afleet Alex, Lookin at Lucky and Essential Quality. All became 3-y-old champions but since they never run as 4-year-olds they could not met the label of great.
Will Take Charge could not match his 3-y-old achievements in his 6 races the next year.
Mucho Macho Man was way better horse after the TC races… and, of course, Gun Runner turned out to be a great older horse.
But to answer your specific question I will definitively place the mighty CURLIN above all the aforementioned brilliant champions.
STEVE That was a. Real good DERBY DOZEN and excellent KNOCKING on the door
Thank you Joe
Gotham winner, Raise Cain, is headed for the Blue Grass Stakes on April 8th, as is Blazing Sevens winner of the Champagne Stakes as a 2yr. old. Blazing Sevens will be equipped with blinkers, and have top rider Irad Ortiz Jr. in the irons.
Regarding Hit Show pointed to the Wood Memorial, I believe Cox made the right call there. He won the G3 Withers by 5 1/2 lengths with Manuel Franco in the irons, he’ll remain there in the Wood.
Per Brad Cox, Tapit’s Conquest may scratch out of the Louisiana Derby, and run in the Wood Momorial instead.
It’s been confirmed (DRF). Hit Show in the Wood Memorial.
Hoping to get 7-1 on Disarm in the Louisiana. None of the other horses scare me, so willing to take the risk on the step up in class. Win/Place bet.
His numbers are quite low I expect the entire 10-1
I think you might be right Matthew. Instant Coffee, Kingsbarns, Sun Thunder, and Jace’s Road should take some money.
Hey Steve have you spoken with Bob about Cave Rock (possibly going) in the SA Derby?
Have you ever asked Bob about where his horses are going? I stopped doing that.
Thanks for another great column. I really enjoy your Knocking at the Door section. I think some of the most interesting tidbits are written there.
To all the negative naysayers on the Jeff Ruby Steaks offering 100 points, it’s a 9 f. Derby prep disguised as an AW race. Not long ago some “bigger” tracks had their Derby preps on this kind of surface. Two Phil’s, Makers Candy and Point Proven are dirt horses who didn’t want to go all the way to New Orleans, so they’re going to Florence, KY and facing some locals with AW expertise and other shippers like turf winner Major Dude. It’s a little extravagaza with the different backgrounds these horses have. Most of them have raced more times than their fellow triple crown nominees. The track has a slick new clubhouse/grandstand that cost something, the place is expanding, not contracting. CDI is trying to promote it. It seems like a win for racing and maybe they’ll put in dirt and turf tracks some day.
I’m standing up for the Arkansas, Florida, New York and Louisiana preps! I’m saying Turfway shouldn’t be the same, should be 50 points no intention on being a negative naysayer—Horse Racing is supposed to be an opinionated sport, we all have ours—name calling is bad pool..
I stated many reasons for why the Turfway race should be a 100 pointer, you didn’t address any of them. Calling people negative naysayers is pretty mild, seemed to be ganging up on it.
Agreed. “Negative naysayers” is one of the mildest things I could be called. But the phrase is redundant. 🙂
Not exactly.
Okay. Then I’m a positive naysayer.
You should save your scintillating wit for someone else.
True. It obviously is wasted on you. Try lightening up. You may feel better.
You’re the one who’s sad.
That’s odd. I can’t seem to find a single reason in your post(s) for “why the Turfway race should be a 100 pointer.”
Ask Churchill Downs why they made it 100 points. Its al personal/business with them just like taking all points away from the Illinois Derby after they bought Arlington.
I thought CDI’s influence might be the cynical reason for the points, but there’s positives to it.
Anyway.., about the race, Steve, you brought attention to Funtastic Again (Ward) long ago and after watching the style and ease (hand ride) of his win in the Leonatus I think the shippers are up against a good one.
Your post is a nice promotion of Turfway and AW. But you don’t make a case for its lofty ranking in the derby point system. Saying that “bigger” tracks once had derby points on AW (Hollywood Park, Keeneland for a couple of years) doesn’t mean it’s the right thing to do. (See my reply to Roberta below.)
I just read that Two Phil’s trainer picked this race because he thinks it’s an easier spot, but he could be wrong. It’s odd he’s not the ML favorite. I’ll be looking forward to watching it. The horses in this prep have raced more than those in any other preps.
I’m surprised that horses accomplished on AW aren’t lower in the ML odds – particularly Congruent. Neither of the top two (Major Dude & Two Phil’s) has run on an AW track.
By the way, your statement that “The horses in this prep have raced more than those in any other preps” is factually incorrect. More important, it’s irrelevant.
“In the eye of a hurricane
There is quiet
For just a moment
A yellow sky” – “Hurricane” – from “Hamilton”
Let’s hope there are some fireworks in this weekend’s preps because, thus far, the Derby Trail has been somewhat uninspiring. Steve’s top three colts appear head and shoulders above the rest of the pack. Cave Rock’s none appearance is certainly a big loss to the thrill of it all. Hopefully, Cave Rock makes it to the Preakness Stakes, it could the most interesting Preakness in years but that’s getting too far ahead. Dream, dreamy, dream.
Steve, thanks again for your latest update and predictions. The Tapit colts interest me the most in the US preps and Go Soldier Go in the UAE Derby but without a great deal of conviction. Watching, hoping, and wishing for some dazzle.
Nelson, are you in Dubai this year?
Not mant two year olds run 7 furlongs under 1:21…..Bid did….Cave Rock and I think another one maybe two…
Matthew, a mature Cave Rock along with an exasperated Bob Baffert might just wreck havoc on return – where and when is the big question?
The way he’s being worked perhaps a week from Saturday, at Santa Anita?..
Matthew, April 8, might be very interesting at Santa Anita.
Speaking of Cave Rock his full brother goes to Japan, one of the last Arrogates..
Yes Matthew, I saw that. Those sales scare me a bit going that fast, so young.
Hi Davids.
No Dubai for me this year.
I will be at Gulfstream for the Florida Derby.
Bruce Springsteen’s Glory Days will be playing in my head while watching Forte soaring magnificently in the homestretch… I will also be watching a future star named Mage.
Should be some dazzle waiting to take place on April 1…
Best of luck to you Nelson and hopefully, a beautiful sunny day at Gulfstream Park. It’ll be interesting to see who lines up for the Florida Derby, you don’t just want one big fish in a small pond.
Gosh, I thought there’d be more comments and discussion.
I don’t have enough expertise to assign extra points for pedigree, but if I did these would be the recipients:
Confidence Game
Disarm
Hit Show
Kingsbarns
National Treasure
Red Route One
Skinner
I also have some gripes about how many derby points are being offered this weekend in stakes that don’t deserve the honor! But I’ll hold off on that. Ha ha!
I agree ! Shipping to Dubai and facing questionable talent, and running in the Turfway Steaks–against horses eschewing the dirt, while racing for equal points as offered in the traditional big dirt preps, head scratching….
Yes, Roberta. I wish CDI would rethink their points structure. 50 points for winning a prep race, which is a prep race for a major prep, is too generous as it’s an instant entry into the Kentucky Derby.
I’m with you, Roberta. The Ruby and the UAE races should not be on the same points level as the Fla/Ark/La derbies and others. True that the Ruby Steaks produced Rich Strike at 80-1, but what other runner from that race ran well in the Derby during the points era? And it’s NOT the same racing surface as the other preps. Would anyone be okay with a TURF race giving 200 points for the Derby? As for the UAE, the record of those runners in the Derby is abysmal. We can also throw in the effect on handicapping the Derby when there is no yardstick for comparison. There are reasons that CDI chose to create this mess, and none of those reasons has to do with fairness.
That’s a great post! Turfway puts out a terrific product, and it’s not synthetic surfaces, per se—CDI seems to be steering horses towards Turfway, with the 200 points….and lessor horses trying to qualify—Tiz the Bomb! Could not beat them on dirt but he trounced them on synthetic, got the pace set up in Kentucky Derby but it did not matter he doesn’t like dirt! And it’s not just Turfway, WHY does Dubai get 200 points? Why are these races considered equal to our traditional stalwarts?!..
Thanks, Matthew. Yes, it’s not a knock on Turfway. I enjoy the challenge of handicapping races there. But this Derby thing is crazy. Why don’t they listen to us? Haha
They SHOULD!…I mean…I was wrong once, but it turned out I was mistaken!..
The same thing happened to me. Many times!
I’m glad to see that others have taken the derby points ball and run with it. Ha ha!
Today, 3-21, Two Eagles River breezed 6 furlongs in 1:13 flat. His two previous works, subsequent to his winning performance last out, were equally as impressive. On 3-14, he fired a bullet 5 furlongs (1/17) in 59.00 flat. On 3-7, he worked 4 fulongs in 47.00 flat (2/58). It certainly appears that Chris Hartman has him fit as a fiddle, and ready to rock and roll in the Arkansas Derby.
It’s a mystery to me that Two Eagles River closed at 270-1, in Derby Futures Pool 5. Go figure.
Hi Bill…
You forgot to mention he beat a highly regarded Disarm last time out too
although I think you said that at the other place.
Good luck sir!
Gerard
Hi Gerard
You’re correct. On March 20th, I posted a comment to Steve expressing my positive outlook on Two Eagles River, and mentioned his gate to wire performance in that one mile, 100K AOC, on 2-19, at Oaklawn Park. What caught my eye was the final time of 1:37.10 and how he ran the final furlong in 12:16 seconds. And yes, I mentioned he beat the highly regarded Disarm by 4 open lengths.
Good luck to you as well.
Event Detail is well drawn for the Jeff Ruby Steaks Stakes Sat….20-1 …..I bet him big in the Rebel, and he didn’t run a jump, back on Tapeta and a big price I may bet him again..
Major Dude is favored in the Jeff Ruby Steaks but hasn’t had a workout since March 10, seems unusual for Todd P.
You’re right. That’s not a good sign it would be bad for any Derby horse.
I thought they might withdraw him due to this, glad they haven’t so far. I wouldn’t be surprised if equibase missed reporting it. He’s one of my faves, discovered him before he won that first stake. He’s up against it a bit, there are some good horses in this field, My Two Phils could break out. Nice field, better than last several, a nice mix of backgrounds and AW seems to be “in” lately. Good card there also. Glad they’re racing in daylight. They should be commended for providing a stepping stone to dirt and the KD, for turf racers. I never thought that before but I do now with my fave racing!
Hey Steve
I’ve been watching a Brad Cox horse (Bishops Bay) that looks as if he may run in the Preakness. Ran very well in a 2 turn allowance at Fair Grounds after his first start win at Gulfstream. Could be “knocking on the door” in the next month.
He’s a nice one. The colt that nearly beat BB in the debut for both (First Mission) broke his maiden the day before at FG at 8.5f. His Brisnet figure was 93. BB earned an 85 in his win. BTW, the debut was at FG, not GP.
Since Lasix is not allowed in Derby prep races, it will be interesting to see if Two Eagles River and Disarm can replicate their last out performance in their upcoming Derby prep races. Both horses had Lasix added in that one mile, 100K OC, at Oaklawn Park on Feb. 19th. We shall see if they can run as well without Lasix added in the Louisiana Derby (Disarm) and the Arkansas Derby (Two Eagles River). Stay tuned for that outcome.
I wouldn’t be concerned, Bill. Both of them ran pretty well as 2-year-olds without lasix.
Good point Roberta.
Steve, I heard Rocket Can today…. “and all this science I don’t understand it’s just my job five days a week A Rocket Can, A Rocket Can” – Elton John-ish
I’m glad you mentioned Airtime… he’s late to the scene but he was 3rd in a race won by Angel of Empire last November. Maybe he has grown and can improve. Could he be the next Danza at ARK?
Thanks now you got it in my head again.
I think that fair odds for Instant Coffee on Saturday would be 3-2. For Kingsbarn, 9-2; Sun Thunder, 5-1. I think that leaves a 3-1 chance for the rest of the field. Shopper’s Revenge may get a lot of play. A popular longshot (oxymoron?) may be Jace’s Road, who could repeat his front-running Gun Runner Stakes win two back at the same track. Shopper’s Revenge could have something to say about that with a good break from post 1.
With only one stakes winner this year in the field, the La Derby isn’t a marquee event. But it could produce horses capable of winning the Ky Derby, like Epicenter, Mandaloun, Hot Rod Charlie, and Midnight Bourbon in the past couple of years. I like the results since the distance was changed to 1 3/16m.
Simon, the four major preps plus the minor one in Japan run this weekend could be analogised to the Pyramids of Giza and the Sphinx, full of mystery but not much treasure to be found. Any of the runners could win and none would surprise. Pull one out of a hat and hope.
That’s so true, Davids. Too bad there’s not a Derby hopeful named Pyramids of Giza…or The Sphinx.
True Simon, but we did have an American Pharoah. Hopefully, there will be some dominant performances that may rattle the self-confidence of Todd Pletcher. Pletcher must be feeling quite sanguine at this stage of the Derby trail.
Hi Steve
Your analysis is spot on. I would add Classic Car Wash into the Derby mix, he always tries and usually gets a placing. Forte
looks like the class of the 3 year olds.. I love the way Tapit Trice won, but just worried in a 20 horse field he’ll have to have a perfect trip.
Thanks Bill. I should have mentioned him but he got lost in all the other stuff. I will definitely mention him next week
Hi Steve
As per usual, an excellent analysis on your top 15 contenders moving forward to the First Saturday in May.
Regarding Hit Show’s next start, I’ve read the Arkansas Derby is under consideration, as well as the Blue Grass and Wood.
In your KOTD segment, I liked what you had to say about Two Eagles River. He caught my attention in his impressive win in that one mile 100K AOC race, beating Disarm by 4 open lengths, in 1:37.10. He ran the last furlong in 12:16, which is the fastest last furlong we’ve seen to date. I could be wrong on that, but if there is another horse out there that has run a faster last furlong than 12:16, I’d like to know who it was. Based on Two Eagles River’s performance last out, I placed a $40.00 win wager on in Derby Futures Pool 5, at 270-1. In addition, I boxed him with Raise Cain, (66-1) in a $20.00 exacta wager in Pool 5. Needless to say, that exacta payout would be through the roof.
The only draw back regarding Two Eagles River is the fact that he’s a gelding. As you well know geldings have not faired well in the KD, only two geldings have won the Derby in modern times, Funny Cide and Mine That Bird.
Regarding the Louisiana Derby, it’s Instant Coffee’s race to lose, the main contender, as I see it, is Kingsbarns.
He (Kingsbarns) could be very special Uncle Mo colt moving forward.
Thanks again for all the time and effort you put forth in your Derby Rankings, week after week.
I wouldnt dismiss a horse because hes a gelding considering how few geldings have run in the Derby. From a physical standpoint I dont see why being gelded would hamper a horse in the Derby.
Thanks for your take on geldings entering the Kentucky Derby. Maybe Two Eagles River will make history as the third gelding to win the Derby in the modern era. Your words offer encouragement to his connections and to those of us that placed a few coins on him moving forward to the Arkansas Derby, and hopefully, to the Kentucky Derby. 🙂
The following are my Week 9 Derby Rankings;
1) Hit Show
2) Forte
3) Practical Move
4) Confidence Game
5) Reincarnate
6) Tapit Trice
7) Two Eagles River (moved up 5 spots from my Week 8 Rankings)
8) Geaux Rocket Ride
9) Red Route One
10) Raise Cain
11) Instant Coffee
12) National Treasure
13) Rocket Can
14) Angel of Empire
15) Blazing Sevens ( back working, I drew a line though the FOY, where he was pin balled at the start)
A total of 13 geldings have run in the Kentucky Derby since 2000. Two have won during that time: Funny Cide and Mine That Bird. However, there have been several great geldings who have run well in the Derby since 1990, including:
Perfect Drift
Prairie Bayou
and one of my personal favorites, Best Pal.
I would never discount a horse in the Derby just because he is a gelding. Just my opinion.
DTG
I appreciate your input on geldings running in the Derby.
Any thoughts on Two Eagles River? I believe he has a bright future moving forward.
Thanks DTG
Hi Bill,
As far as Two Eagles River goes, getting the distance might be the only question. However, this horse is very talented and so far this Derby looks like it is lacking quality speed. I am very interested in the Arkansas Derby, where the field is shaping up very strong. I played three horses in the Derby futures:
Forte 8-1
Red Route One 58-1
Blazing Sevens 27-1
David
Thanks for the reply DTG
If Forte remains healthy, and wins the Florida Derby, he’ll be the post time Derby favorite when the gates open. Consider yourself lucky to have 8-1 odds on him in your Derby Futures wager. Red Route One checks a lot of boxes, and could be dangerous as a deep closer on Derby Day. At 58-1, you certainly have a good chance to make a bundle of money if there’s a pace meltdown in the Derby. I drew a line though Blazing Sevens last race (FOY) where he was pinballed between two horses, and never got involved after that incident. He’s back working, a could rebound in his next start. We’ll see.
I certainly agree that the Arkansas Derby is shaping up to be the most competitive field that we’ve seen in a Derby prep race. Hopefully, Two Eagles River will finish in the money, and secure enough points to make the Derby starting gate.
Brad Cox has yet to commit where Hit Show will make his next start. He’s mentioned the Wood, the Blue Grass and the Arkansas Derby. Stay tuned for the announcement.
BTW, I placed a “C” note on Hit Show to win the Derby, in Futures Pool 3, at 77-1. In addition, I keyed him on top with the entire Pool 3 field, underneath, in my $2.00 exacta wager. In Pool 5, I placed a $40.00 win wager on Two Eagles River, and boxed him with Raise Cain, in a $20.00 exacta wager, which would pay $57,250 if those two finish 1st and 2nd.
Good luck with your wagers.
I think General Challenge was a gelding….Bob entered him on an entry with a filly that finished 4th that year, but General Challenge never threatened, he sometimes did not fire, was sort of a head case but he ran some huge performances….
Instant Coffee is a really nice horse, but I’m curious about the January to late March layoff. It’s unusual for Cox to do that with Derby hopefuls. And when has a 3 year old ever run in January, not again until a final prep in late March or April, and then won the Kentucky Derby? Maybe never?
Thanks for the great update, Steve.
Hi Simon – I agree the layoff for Instant Coffee has to be a big concern. He will be the heavy FAV and I will try to beat him with my two bomber KDFW horses, KingsBarns and Disarm.
Good luck, 1JoeP. It will be the first time in history that a K horse and a D horse finish 1-2 in the KD.
I’m intrigued on whether Instant Coffee can run a strong 1 3⁄16 miles mind you that applies to the rest of the field as well. If they’re staggering home…
Yes, it’s similar to the step from a 9f prep to the 10f Derby – a full furlong further. We have several Risen Star runners that don’t need to take as big a step as Instant Coffee. The performance of those runners should tell us something about Angel of Empire.
Just a typo/autocorrect, Confidence GAME. In the Louisiana Derby I’ll be watching Single Ruler. (Empir Maker- Smara, StormCat) Desormeaux. His Risen Star effort looked decent, if he gets nearer the front early he may stay on.
I’ve been reading it over for typos and have fixed that. Thanks
Hi Steve – The LA Derby should be an exciting race and drew a bulky 12 horse field . Two of the possible upsetters of the race IMO are KingsBarns and Disarm. Fortunately I got both in KDFW at 43-1 and 60-1. I see you agree that both have a legit shot to contend and even upset IC. I like both of their PP. KingsBarns has broken sharply in both of his starts and I hope this trend continues in the LA Derby. He has tactical speed and I hope he is long gone in the stretch by the time IC kicks into gear. As for Disarm, hopefully Rosario gets him to break well and settle mid pack. Once Disarm gets rolling he is a handful. I’m hoping the 1 3/16 plays to both of these colts strengths. We will see how good Instant Coffee is. He will surely be a heavy FAV. He is coming off of a long layoff and has to reel in KB who may not stop, and Disarm who will be running for his Derby life with no points. Hopefully Disarm and KB will put in strong efforts Steve to shoot them onto and up your derby rankings next week.
I’m thinking Instant Coffee, Sun Thunder, Disarm ex/tri box with a wps wager on Disarm! Fort Bragg Sunday! Not sure about the Jeff Ruby maybe Major Dude! This weekend is looking good, the following weekend looks even good-er! I Don’t Get It would be better served trying for The Preakness, but if they try a Derby prep look out!
Hi Matthew – I’m with you and believe and hope that Disarm will fire big in the LA Derby. I like your TRI, but I will substitute KingsBarns and Tapit’s Conquest in Sun Thunder’s place.
Admittedly I know nothing about Kingsbarns, since will have to take a look at him….I like that they sent Disarm to Oaklawn, which is no easy task and he finished well…anytime the pace finishes fast like Two Eagles River did a closer is up against it, and Disarm ran pretty good considering the ship and the 3yo debut— put up time, Sat….I hope Joel doesn’t allow his mount to shuffle back to the rear, O wish him to rate mid-pack and we’ll see! I had a good Sunday at The Great Race Place am holding $552 in winning tickets, will likely throw $20 across, on Disarm! Fingers crossed!..
I don’t think Fort Bragg ran a bad 5th, in the San Felipe, and at 4-1 I would be making a win wager, at Sunland….maybe Henry Q is all that—he Varela beat Bluegrass Go Go on Feb 4th, Bluegrass Go Go was way up the track at a huge price, in the Felipe…. He looked great winning by 14….now he will be facing tougher..
Meant to say he BARELY beat Bluegrass Go Go, my cheap phone fails me when I type too fast!..
Yes, Matthew, I thought Fort Bragg ran a decent race as well. One in Vermillion is the other colt that interests me a little as well. Mind you, neither appeal as 10f Derby contenders but you never know these days.
The Sam Felipe came 3 weeks after Skinner’s comeback race, the field was always bunched until the stretch–a sign of soft pace and Skinner was alone in last, he made a nice move and hung some, and I allow for that, it’s put up time, on less than two weeks ..I hope he makes The Derby..