Kentucky Derby Rankings – Bridlewood Farm Feature
It is time to sit back in your favorite chair with a bowl of popcorn and enjoy the movie. You know, those old films from the 1930s, ‘40s, and ‘50s about the Sport of Kings that even with its predictable ending still tugs at the heart strings. One of those films, considered the blueprint for future racing movies, is the stage setter for the horse story from this year’s Derby that follows. ~ Steve Haskin
Is There a Bluegrass in the Kentucky Derby?
By Steve Haskin
In 1938, America watched the granddaddy of horse racing films when the movie “Kentucky,” co-produced by Calumet Farm owner Gene Markey, was released. The main plot was daughter returns to the family farm, which was suffering financially, and helps save it after her father’s death by winning the Kentucky Derby. Walter Brennan actually won an Oscar for Best Supporting Actor.
We saw life imitate art in 1972 and 1973 when Penny Tweedy returned to the family farm, which was suffering financially, and helped save it by winning, not one, but two Kentucky Derbys.
Well, we could see a similar story unfolding this year, but this time the script revolves around the horses. The equine stars in “Kentucky” named Postman and Bluegrass, grew up on the same farm, then went off in different directions with different owners and wound up facing each other in the Kentucky Derby, battling to the wire together in typical Hollywood fashion, with the heroine’s horse, Bluegrass, winning and saving the farm. Music builds to a glorious crescendo, curtains close, applause erupts, tissues appear, sniffles, exit rear.
Welcome to Kentucky Derby 151 and the impending showdown between the top two favorites Journalism and Sovereignty, who, yes, grew up on the same farm, were broke together and received their early training together, while rated at the very top of their class, then went off in different directions, one to the East Coast and one to the West Coast. And now, like Bluegrass and Postman, they are on a collision course to Churchill Downs and America’s greatest race to establish supremacy in the 3-year-old division.
There actually was one other colt ranked right up there with them on the farm, and to enhance the plot even further, he, too, will be in the Kentucky Derby. So, add the name East Avenue to the cast of leading characters.
But the focus will be on the two main protagonists, Journalism and Sovereignty.
Don’t worry, this isn’t another tear-jerking tale of the Turf, just the premise of a potentially feel-good story of two, possibly three horses, and one talented trainer who helped guide them to America’s biggest stage.
Every movie must have a script, even a partial one like this, and now that you know the plot, the setup, and what will be at stake on the first Saturday in May, here is the story so far from the beginning.
Bridlewood Farm, founded in 1976 by Arthur and Martha Appleton and now owned by John and Leslie Malone, encompasses more than 2,200 acres in Ocala, Florida, the horse capital of the Sunshine State. Among the illustrious horses who received their early training here were two of the most popular stars of the century, Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner Smarty Jones and Horse of the Year Cody’s Wish, as well as Horse of the Year and Hall of Famer Gun Runner, now one of the most successful stallions in the country. The stallions who have resided here include the sires of Hall of Famers Skip Away (Skip Trial) and Silver Charm (Silver Buck).
Bridlewood Farm located in Ocala, Florida.
In 2013, a 29-year-old Saratoga area native named Joan Murphy was hired by Bridlewood Farm as an exercise rider and to break all the yearlings. She had been working as an exercise rider for trainer Linda Rice for four years, but with a child on the way it was time to settle down in one place. She made such a strong impression on everyone, including longtime general manager George Isaacs, she took over the breaking and training of all the 2-year-olds in 2017, and in 2019 was given the title of resident farm trainer.
Murphy, who is called “Meda” by those who know her, trains about 115 2-years-old a day for various clients, with about 135 total in her care, including layups and horses there to rehab.
The process actually starts the previous year at the yearling sales. In 2023, she and George Isaacs, as usual, were working the Saratoga sale in August, where they were doing their usual groundwork for Eclipse Thoroughbreds, which had always been a big supporter of Bridlewood training, and they would compare their respective short lists for potential partnerships, with Bridlewood usually going in for 25 percent. On both their A-lists was a son of Curlin, out of the top-class mare Mopotism, who is by one of Isaacs’ favorite horses Uncle Mo.
“Being a son of Curlin with a lot of scope, he looked like he would have some speed,” Isaacs said. “And he was very correct with an athletic walk.”
So Bridlewood and Eclipse partnered up on him and got him for $825,000. When all the sales that year were done, Bridlewood had 30 horses in partnership with Eclipse.
In September it was time to begin the schooling and breaking process before they start training on the track, which entails building each horse’s confidence and help them understand what the bit is and teach them about steering and how to use themselves.
Among Murphy’s 100-plus babies in the 2024 2-year-old crop were 27 owned by Godolphin, looking for the next Cody’s Wish or their $2 million earner and multiple Grade 1 winner Maxfield, who also received his early training from Murphy.
This was right on the heels of Cody’s Wish, who Murphy broke and trained, being voted Horse of the Year in 2023 after winning his second consecutive Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile and second consecutive Vox Populi Award as the nation’s most popular horse, due in good part to his amazing relationship with a handicapped young man named Cody Dorman, for whom the colt was named.
So when it was time for Murphy to begin training the 2024 crop of 2-year-olds she was still riding high on the heroics of Cody’s Wish, and would again in April of that year when another of her star pupils, Gun Runner, was elected to the Racing Hall of Fame.
With the breaking process completed, it was time to start evaluating the newly turned 2-year-olds and look for the next Cody’s Wish or Gun Runner. No matter how long you’ve been working with young horses, every year you’re still a kid opening your Wonka bar hoping to see that golden ticket.
As the training progresses into the winter and early spring, “the cream starts to rise to the top,” as Isaacs put it, and Murphy starts rating the horses in each ownership group.
“It’s not hard to tell the strong ones from the just average ones,” Murphy said. “They are few and far between. I score them by ownership, but they all train together, with the sets determined by what I’m going to do with them. So in that respect they are one big family.”
Isaacs, who helped manage the early training and racing career of Smarty Jones for owners Roy and Pat Chapman and was advisor on the stallion deal with Three Chimneys Farm, has nothing but praise for Murphy and her eye for a top horse.
“She treats the clients the same and all horses are equal no matter who the owner is, and she gives them all the same chance to use the talents that God gave them,” he said. “Meda has never been wrong identifying the ones who were best. When she works them in company she never lets one come off the bridle, and she never uses time. So much of it is visual and interpreting body language and athleticism and how easily they do things. She puts her heart and soul into the training.”
But as Murphy added, “I have a crew that is full of amazing people. It’s easy to pick out the strong ones.”
Murphy’s highest rated horse from the Eclipse group was the aforementioned Curlin colt, who later would be named Journalism.
Journalism strides to the wire to win the San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita Park.
“He was very mature mentally and physically and well-balanced from day one, Murphy said. “You knew he was going to be an earlier horse. He was so advanced and always wanted to go. Even when he breezed he did it like an older horse. He was a natural at everything. You show him once, he came back a graduate. It would have been easy to just let him keep going, but I had to stand in his way. I would let him and then back him down and just keep taking pauses. There is a fine line between staying out of their way and pulling them back.”
The two Godolphin horses with the highest rating atop her A-list were a homebred Into Mischief colt, out of the Bernardini mare Crowned, later to be named Sovereignty, and a homebred colt by Medaglia d’Oro, out of the Ghostzapper mare Dance Music, to be named East Avenue.
“Sovereignty had all the physical and mental attributes for a yearling and early 2-year-old,” Murphy recalled, “He had the frame and a great mind, but he was different from Journalism in that you had to watch it and nurture it. He was a school boy with all the parts, but he needed time to mature mentally and physically. We develop them on paths tailored for each individual to do their very best. He definitely was a top tier horse; he just needed me to respect him and let him go at his own pace and blossom in his own time.
Sovereignty powers to victory in the Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park.
“Although Journalism and Sovereignty were different in many ways, their strengths were similar. They were both alpha horses and were strong physically and mentally and they both took their lessons and learned from them. And each time they came back better for it. They just were on different timetables in how they learned and developed, with Journalism wanting to go earlier and just keep going. So in that respect they were like apples to oranges.
“East Avenue was always a class act and did everything right, and was ranked right up there at the top along with Sovereignty. He had a great mind and was a terrific student. He was and still is the picture of class and strength. I don’t lay them down. That is for the trainers to find out. I just develop them and rate them from what they naturally are showing me, and one thing he did show me was that he had a turn of foot.”
When their training was complete, all three were sent to different trainers, with Journalism going to Mike McCarthy in California, Sovereignty to Bill Mott, who trained Cody’s Wish, in New York, and East Avenue to Brendon Walsh, who trained Maxfield, in Kentucky.
Mott said they liked Sovereignty very early on, and added, as only Mott could, “There was no reason not to like him.”
It is now mid-April and Journalism, following impressive victories in the Los Alamitos Futurity, San Felipe Stakes, and Santa Anita Derby is the clear-cut favorite for the Kentucky Derby, and Sovereignty, with his big wins in the Street Sense Stakes at Churchill Downs and Fountain of Youth Stakes and a fast-closing second in the Florida Derby from a bad post, is the consensus second favorite.
East Avenue wins the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland
East Avenue came storming out of the box with a spectacular maiden romp followed by an equally impressive victory in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland. But a bad stumble at the start of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile cost him all chance, and then came his inexplicably poor effort in the Risen Star. But he bounced back a with a series of sensational works and a gutsy second, beaten a nose right on the wire, in the Blue Grass Stakes over a tiring drying out track despite being ridden very hard out of the gate to get the lead. And by doing so little running in those two uncharacteristic defeats, he went into the Blue Grass basically having run only a half-mile in the past six months.
”Forgetting about the Juvenile, he had one bad race, which was very confusing, but he came back stronger for it and is still a very serious horse.” Murphy said.
And so the journey of these three gifted colts continues as the big day approaches. Considering how many dreams are played out each fall and winter in the minds of horsemen at racetracks, training centers, and breeding farms all over the country, to have three horses come off the same farm and make it to the Kentucky Derby, with two of them the favorite and second choice and the other with a big chance, has to be more than just coincidence and luck.
Murphy uses her adept skills in horsemanship and her ability to read horses as individuals even in large numbers, but once they arrive on the racetrack so many elements come into play that can dictate their future. That is when the learning foundation she provided and the interaction with the people around them can help guide a horse in the right direction. When Cody’s Wish left Bridlewood Farm as a 2-year-old, sure there were high hopes for him, but no one could have foreseen all the tears of joy that would be shed as the inspirational story of the colt and young Cody Dorman played out in front of millions of people.
Obviously we don’t know how this movie will end and what new chapters in the annals of the Kentucky Derby will be written. But as always it will be about the story and the horses; always about the horses and where they came from and how they made it to Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May. The perfect ending would be to have Journalism and Sovereignty battle down the stretch ahead of them all, just as Bluegrass and Postman did, and decide which one will emerge as the hero of this movie. Even though it was said 87 years ago, one of the closing lines in the movie “Kentucky” still holds true: “In this day of automobiles and airplanes and other modern conveniences, many of us have forgotten the horse and what he has meant to America.” No matter who wins, it is hoped America will be reminded of that on May 3.
(Next week we will review the workouts and overall observations of the Derby horses, along with a surprising new way to bet the Derby that readers on this site can appreciate and have fun with).
Photos courtesy of Bridlewood Farm, Benoit Photo, Adam Coglianese and Godolphin.
Racing historian, author, and award-winning retired journalist for the Daily Racing Form and The Blood-Horse, Steve Haskin was inducted into the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame’s Media Roll of Honor in 2016. Known for his racing knowledge and insightful prose, he has been an exclusive contributor to Secretariat.com since 2020.
I had to smile listening to the commentators on the Kentucky Derby and Oaks Works Show ‘contemplating’ the Japanese runners, they were worried that the Japanese runners might be overawed by the crowd size on Derby day. The Tokyo Racecourse has a capacity of 223,000 and the fans are extremely vocal. Ha ha
Sovereignty looks better and better every day, he really impressed today.
David, that’s hilarious. As for Luxor Cafe, I’m looking forward to seeing his planned breeze on Tuesday. I was a bit concerned about Sovereignty earlier in the wesk, but he has gotten better every day!
Yes, Tony, I’m waiting to see Luxor Cafe on Tuesday as well. Yes, agree, when Sovereignty was so washy there was reason for concern especially when Mike Welsch said Sovereignty wasn’t washy in the morning when he was In Florida.
He did. I thought he and Rodriguez and Journalism all looked great.
Burnham Square is another that captures your eye as well.
Agree! Really like Burnie’s way of going.
Yes Davids… I had the same reaction when recalling the huge crowds of Japan racetracks specially for the Stakes there…
but still Luxor Cafe was not that relaxed when schooling at the paddock… The crowd around the saddling area at the Derby will likely be very different from the one back in Japan.
Another factor that won’t faze the Japanese horses is the size of the field … Admire Daytona and Luxor Cafe have won against 15 horses and the average field size they faced in Japan is 14.
There is always miscues in horse racing telecasts. You can hear at Netflix “Race for the Crown” Dettori telling his wife that Baffert “has won eight (8) Derbies”, and Iavarone saying that the BC Juvenile is a source of a “lot of Derby horses”…. or Baffert calling Dettori directly to give him the mount of Imagination in the Santa Anita Derby… bypassing agent Anderson does not seem likely in those transactions…lol
Agree about how good Sovereignty looks at Churchilll… and there is no issue of lathering up anymore .
East Avenue and Burnham Square are showing great energy in their last breezes and gallops as well. I would also say that Final Gambit will be running very fast late on dirt given how good he is moving on the dirt of Churchill downs…
My top five horses drew very favorably … it is a good start
Nelson, the Japanese horses are wild cards for me it wouldn’t surprise me if they won but then again it wouldn’t surprise if they didn’t impact either. Luxor Cafe seems more liable than Admire Daytona but who knows really.
Journalism, Sandman, and Tiztastic are still the three I like with Coal Battle a ‘feel good’ hopeful. Sovereignty and Burnham Square are obviously dangers. Baeza at post 20, if he gets in, is less desirable now.
Best of luck, who are your Oaks horses?
I believe I’ve learned not to take pleasure in any horse losing or performing poorly, regardless of their connections or history., or my ego for selecting a different horse. All of these horses are subject to physical or mental limitations, and we ask everything of them. Sometimes it is hard to justify. If my horse gets up at the wire, I am gratified, but there is never reason to be disappointed in the horse. They owe us nothing. Being born a racehorse will not end well for most of them. Picking the derby winner is fun for us, but for the horses, it is just another day.
I’ll second that. Good comment.
Great comments!
Well-put!
Todd,
Very well said and something that I think we all need to keep in mind.
Thank you!
Excellent comment Todd
I’d like to think that only unstable individuals would want a horse to perform poorly, or worse. It seems to be the case among those who appear to despise certain owners and trainers. But it’s a small minority of people, I’m sure, and they have no effect on the horses or the sport.
On the other hand, whether or not we admit it, we do in some manner want horses to lose when we bet on a horse to win. Perhaps even more so when we’re just a big fan of a horse and make no bets.
No matter if certain barns aren’t in my favor, I want ALL horses to enjoy safe trips……..period!
It will probably change from now until next Saturday, but here is my first attempt at 3 trifectas, 2 of which have Journalism on top, and one with him in 2nd:
(8)
(3,7,9,18)
(3,4,7,9,10,14,17,18)
(3,7,9,18)
(8)
(3,4,7,9,10,14,17,18)
(8)
(3,4,7,9,10,14,17,18)
(3,7,9,18)
If I calculated correctly, each $1 trifecta is $24
Good luck everyone!!
If Journalism wins, have chance to hit trifecta twice
Good luck Biggy, I’ll post my picks on SAT.
Thanks a lot, Joe!! Was stressed until pp draw worried about bad post; not worried anymore! Looking forward to your wagers!
Good luck, biggy312, you always seem to have luck on your side.
Thanks very much, Davids.
The best of luck to you too!!
Each trifecta is $28
Really glad I organized the Derby starters by entry number, Biggy! Great strategic betting.
Thanks a bunch, Ms Blacktype!
Best of luck!
Steve, since I started following your Derby columns in 2012 I have found that with very few exceptions your number one is the winner. That says a lot I think for your experience, attention to detail and your love for these horses and the sport.
I have never watched “Bluegrass” but adding it to my watch list. Good movies are hard to find these days so often I look for old classics.
Walter Brennan was one of the most talented and well liked actors of the 20th century. He usually played in supporting roles and is still the only actor to receive the Oscar for 3 supporting roles, one of which was for “Blue Grass”.
Read that his “limp” was an improvisation he added to his characters.
Actually remember him more from the TV series “The Real McCoys”. It was one of the TV shows my late Father enjoyed.
Loretta Young had a TV show as well, titled the “Loretta Young Show”. My late Mom liked her show. I can remember Loretta opening her show by sweeping on stage in a beautiful, flowing, long white evening gown.
Really not much to watch these days on regular TV. I think the last TV series I watched was “Grimm” (based loosely on “Grimm’s Fairy Tales). I do watch murder mystery shows on PBS Masterpiece Mystery.
Weather forecast for Louisville has changed slightly. Chance of TS/ rain Tuesday through Friday. Derby Day high will be 72.
As Porky Pig used to say “That’s All Folks”, (for now at least).
Been hooked on “Murdoch Mysteries” lately.
I think you just put the whammy on me. Btw the movie is “Kentucky.” Bluegrass is the name of the horse in the movie
I apologize for the error on the name of the movie.
Why all the scratches simply because of one unproven horse? I’m referring to the 7th race at Aqueduct today, where Cornucopian went off at 1-9 in a 3-horse field (5 scratched). Congratulations to Garamond, another up and comer, who won the race.
Ms B, I watched replay of the race.
Cornucopian had nothing in the stretch and appeared to struggle to hold onto to second.
Like you I questioned the scratches. SMH, just do not get it.
Cannot see him running in the Preakness.
In my travels (reading) recently I read something interesting that usually a horse that does not travel has a better chance of winning (if he or she stays in their region. Maybe Cornucopian is one of those horses that simply does not travel well.
He won at Oaklawn Park…. but maybe farther east is not better for some as tracks are sandier.
At least it wasn’t the size of the field, LOL.
Lynda, interesting regarding travel. It makes sense. Guess that’s why we consider the ones who “don’t need to take their racetrack with them” so special. There have always been standout travel horses, but Blind Luck (RIP) remains a favorite of mine.
Interestingly, in an interview on BH with Garrett O’Rourke, they brought up the fact that Final Gambit has never even left the state of Kentucky! I imagine that’s pretty rare for one that makes it to the track, since so many go south for early training.
Cornucopian was BB’s mystery KD horse…until he wasn’t.
His fans automatically assume that every $1,000,000 plus auction horse in his barn is a superstar. Beating Cali competition is one thing, winning outside of the friendly SA confines is another thing.
For the ownerships sake, hopefully he’ll have a bright future.
Zany, some honestly talk until their heads rattle regarding “the next big thing” from that barn.
Too much is made of ‘purchase price’ this and that. If Sandman’s owner/breeder wouldn’t have passed away Sandman would be a homebred and there wouldn’t be be this underdog vs millionaire kind of thing. Get past it. He was bought at auction where he only galloped- no breeze, the potential of the horse was plainly evident hence the resulting and justified sale price.
What happened to Cavalieri? Wasn’t she supposed to make an appearance at Churchill next weekend? Probably best for BB to keep her home after his Cornucopian went down today in New York at 1-9.
Big disappointment….Richi could have given Anna a race—something must’ve happened, a friend told me they were sending her..
Some talked this horse up months ago like he was unbeatable. Lol
Hey Mike,
Even the great Secretariat lost a race and some people thought he was unbeatable !!! LOL
You have me there.
What’s Chad Brown up to in the La Troienne? We have seen this movie before. The “Grizzly Bear” is coming back in just 3 weeks after her easy win in the Apple Blossum and will surely be odds-on. Way odds-on! But it was just last August at Saratoga that Brown sent out Randomized to battle Idiomatic on the lead setting it up for Raging Sea to pick up the pieces. Well, the tag-team of Randomized and Raging Sea are back to challenge the Grizzly Bear. If Brian Hernandez lets Randomized go, she can take them all the way. If he falls into Brown’s trap, Raging Sea will be coming late. Don’t get me started on “Anna’s” declining numbers pattern.
Raging Sea and Randomized have been training together in Florida before Brown snuck them into Louisville to get a feel for the track. Can they do it again? The Grizzly Bear will be meeting older.
I think it should be a good race on Friday! I’m not sure about current form of any of these mares, but Raging Sea looked perfectly placed to pick off Thorpedo Anna at Del Mar, and couldn’t stay with her when that one moved. Having Randomized in it too might give us a little satisfaction after not getting the chance to see Idiomatic try for her double. You know that Chad Brown is always in it to win. Free As a Girl was second in this race last year, and also still looks pretty dang good as of 3 weeks ago. Good day for racing on Oaks Day!
Oaks fillies: I’m high on Quietside (tough, and looking great in the mornings) and Good Cheer in the Oaks. I do love to see yet another nice Medaglia D’Oro filly lighting things up: Chad’s 3 y/o filly Ballerina D’Oro looked good this morning, too!
Well, I waited until today to chime in briefly about the Kentucky Derby and the post position draw.
Let me say, and it’s just me, that this field is rather ordinary with one exception….Journalism.
With all due respect to Michael McCarthy, whom I believe is an excellent trainer, if Charlie Whittingham with his public persona was the trainer of Journalism you might be hearing of words like ‘super horse’ or the next ‘superstar’ especially if Willie Shoemaker was aboard. But Mr. McCarthy does things his way and it has served him well with this horse. To me Journalism is the standout with the rest a level below. At least up to now.
Now to the pps. Sure, being assigned #1 is undersirable but it is not impossible. More winners came from the one hole than from #2-#4 holes with the same numbers of starters. Heck, Citation and War Admiral won from the one hole….WA beat 19 other horses, and no, I’m not picking Citizen Bull.
But as of right now, if the KD was run in the next hour or so, I would choose Sandman. I believe in the odds. Sandman, a $1.2 million purchase, came away with a 99 Beyer while winning the Arkansas Derby. He is a very good horse. The odds I’m talking about is that Sandman’s trainer, Mark Casse, has everything major race in Canada and several in the states but never the Kentucky Derby. Sandman’s jockey, Irad Ortiz, has never won this race (0 for 9).
And did I mention the #17 post position. Again, never.
Again, I like the odds. But this is just today. A lot can happen in the next few days.
Jose is on Sandman. But no matter. I think Sandman is a natural and very likely will finish in the trifecta.
Yes, thanks for the correction. I didn’t want to list ‘junior’ but forgot the first name.
John,
You and I in the past have agreed more than disagreed on things but I think this years group for the most part is better than an “ordinary” group. There are some horses here with some exceptional talent. Unfortunately we lost one yesterday in Tappan Street. I know Journalism is going to be the favorite and I like him alot but he is not a sure thing and I feel he can be beaten. What l think is different in this crop is lack of racing some of the horses some of the horses have had and Baffert and Pletcher not having a real standout. But in the end we will see how things play out. Who knows you may change my mind. BTW Sandman is not one of my favorites.
With all the love generated by Coal Battle, it seems that Chunk of Gold has been lost in the shuffle. Chunk of Gold was sold as a yearling for $2,500. That’s two thousand and five hundred dollars! His owner, Terry Stephens, has never had a horse win a stakes race (including CoG). His trainer, Ethan West, has had just one graded stakes winner: Runaway Storm in a 2023 G3 turf stakes at Keeneland. This is jockey Jareth Loveberry’s second Kentucky Derby. His first was in 2023 with Two Phil’s, a great second to Mage.
That’s a colt for fans to cheer.
I went out to Los Al to get an up close look at Jour…zI could still see some….and this colt just had “the look”….Aaron Wellman was standing there and I said he looked like a mature horse–he is giving off an aire of confidence, at Churchill—-I haven’t pucked a favorite in the Derby in close to ten years, when Chrome stood out—he was medium framed, this guy has a long frame—not the largest horse in the field but he carries himself like he means business! I’ve picked the last two Derby Winners—and got a price—I’m going for the turkey, with this beautiful bay….
Hi Matt
In today’s edition of the San Diego Union, Jay Posner provided an interesting back story on Aron Wellman. He started off his racing career as an 8-year-old boy, mucking stalls, at Del Mar, for $2.00 each. Years later, he founded Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners.
He’s been friends with Journalism’s trainer Mike McCarthy since they were kids, and when McCarthy went out on his own, Eclipse provided him with his first horses.
If you get a chance, check out the article. It makes for interesting reading.
Thanks Bill…also—Mike McCarthy is no stranger to Churchill Downs—he knows everyone and they all know him, he was Todd’s Kentucky trainer and he keeps20 there now….
Matt – Journalism exudes confidence and looking healthy and training well. Love his PP8 draw Matt. I’ve won KDFW bets before at big odds on California Chrome and Always Dreaming. Feeling good to get my Turkey as well as yours with Journalism.
Joe my $10 bet on Journalism is small potatoes, compared to your wagers…I hope you win! We got the 52-1 because we saw how he looked at Del Mar going two turns—I hoped he would continue progressing—I never thought I would see his two races at Santa Anita—I thought he would round into top form—Joe….there’s more coming!
If Baeza gets in…and statistics show there is usually a Derby Week defection…despite the 20-post he will go of third choice—his Beyers and Thirograph #s …and getting Prat—Baeza will get a lot of mutual backing….
People talk about how Bob chases away competition, out west—-we’ll today in New York the 8-horse field has scratched down to THREE, for Cornucopian..
Free square in the Cross Country P5.
Did you notice the height, of Cornucopian? He was standing in front of My Mitole, and looked shorter—horses usually appear taller when they are standing in front…Corny is a shorty—and his work oattern….some fast…a :49? … that’s not Bob….
Did anyone else notice the Quietside typo last night? On the first graphic for PP draw and odds posted by @KentuckyDerby on Twitterpated, they had her at 84-1. She’s actually 8-1… and they fixed it this morning. Ooooops.
I failed to mention to my fellow workout watchers that the FanDuel programs called Breakfast at the Kentucky Derby have been amazing. Something to pull up on YouTube and so worth it. Enjoy workout junkies!
Does not matter now because he is not running in the Derby but one of Render Judgement’s owners is Dream Walkin Farm.
The farm belonged to the late Country Music star, Toby Keith.
Toby always dreamed of running a horse in the Derby.
Wait… they changed their minds again? Last I saw, he drew PP 15 and will start.
Honestly cannot keep up. Trying to catch up on all the latest this morning.
Read this morning Baeza is in, assumed perhaps mistakenly, that RJ was out.
You may have the inside track, since you have Twitter! This would be big for the Baeza camp.
Trying to find confirmation.
Katy, 45 minutes ago Byron York posted that Baeza is AE, next in line.
Guess the post about RJ was the first decision to not run.
Toby will be at the Derby in spirit. If Render Judgement wins i’ll consider it divine intervention!!
If i’m not mistaken his last horse was Cactus Ridge.
It would really be something!
CC, my reply to your question is below.
I think that the Pat Day Mile has come up pretty disappointing this year. A couple of weeks ago, it looked like the Pat Day Mile would be loaded. We’re left with Built, Gaming, and Madaket Road. I like the looks of Gaming best.
Just like Steve Haskin had said weeks ago, this Derby is not a deep field. Journalism, Sovereignty, and East Avenue look best to me. I’ve never liked Sandman. But he might be better than I give him credit for.
I won’t be completely surprised if the $2,500 Chunk of Gold outruns both of the million dollar horses, Baeza($1.2million) and Sandman($1.2million)
Whatever chance that Owen Almighty and Citizen Bull might have had, they lost with their poor post position draws. Owen Almighty should have gone to the Pat Day Mile. He would have a good chance there. Both horses will have to be used hard going to the first turn. I’ve decided to throw out Citizen Bull’s Santa Anita Derby run. I think he got a bad ride that day. BB has him primed to run big in the Derby. If not for that rail draw. Maybe Martin Garcia can find a way to hit the board.
Journalism has 5 races. Four of them were 5-horse fields. He did win his Maiden race in a 10-horse field. BB never had any problem getting his best horses ready in 5-horse fields. Let’s see if Michael McCarthy can do it. His horse looks good.
The cream of this years crop…Journalism
Wide open field after that. Forgotten horses in this field i believe are Tiztastic, Flying Mohawk & Grande. The more i look at Grande w/Johnny V the more i’m leaning towards him.
Lot of Toby Keith fans just now realizing that RJ was Toby’s horse (under Dream Walkin Ranch).
As word gets out would not be surprised to see money being bet on RJ.
Think he had several horses that have done well.
I had a wager with a friend that Sovereignty would be the ML favorite. Well, I owe him a 6PK. What did I get wrong?
Sovereignty has defeated the following likely KD starters –
Sandman – Ak Derby winner -100 points prep
Tiztastic – LA Derby winner -100 points prep
Burnham Square – Blue Grass winner – 100 points Prep
He broke his maiden against winners in a graded stake by 5L under a hand ride as the 1/2 favorite.
His best performance ahead of the KD was recorded at CD ala Street Sense /Rich Strike
He looks like a monster in the mornings.
The likely starter that was assigned the ML favorite designation broke his maiden in a MSW as the 3rd choice in the wagering. In his final KD prep he defeats a last out MSW by 3/4L whilst fully extended and required every inch of the stretch to do so. The other graded stakes winners in race finished behind a fellow last out MSW winner
I guess this another decision that is above my pay grade. But then I do not earn much which reflects my academic deficiency.
You need to put your $ where your mouth is. Put 2k across the board on Sovereignty!
You have SIX more days to keep taking swipes at Journalism. Yet, you don’t have the intrepidity to post your top 3 list.
Hi Steve, It’s been another terrific prep season following along with you articles! Thanks so much for all you do!! I’ve got a question. Ian Wilkes and Brian Hernandez have both said that Burnham Square was “quartered up” after the Blue Grass Stakes. What does “quartered up” mean? I googled it and got info on quarter cracks, but I’m pretty sure that Ian and Brian are referring to something else.
I was re-reading last year’s final bets article and accidentally posted this question over there, so you might want to delete that one… or just ignore it altogether 🙂
I don’t believe that post positions are nearly as important as breaking from the gate quickly and without incident. A horse can be flatfooted when the bell rings whether he’s in Post 1, 5, 10, 15, or 20. The same goes for stumbling, breaking in or out, and being pummeled by the horse to the inside or to the outside (or both). If rider and horse can avoid those calamities, the post won’t matter.
With a clean break for all. Which post in a field of 20 affords the shortest route to the winning post?
Absurd hypothetical. There will be a clean break for all when blue whales fly.
The Saturday Derby Day card is loaded. Only one of the 14 races has less than 10 horses entered. That is the Pat Day Mile with just 9 entrants. The stars will be coming out.
Nysos and Mindframe are entered on the card. I’m not saying that they will win, but they are entered. A super card besides the Derby. Plenty of chances to make a score.
50 pages to print the Saturday Form and another 34 pages for the Friday edition. What else do I have to do at 3:45am on a Sunday morning? I don’t have to be at Mass until 7am.
Quick glance, does Locked bounce to the moon off of that big number that he ran in The Big Cap? He looked like he did it pretty easily. But the numbers don’t lie. It could be his stablemate that he will have to beat. A fresh new face named Fierceness. Is he any good?
I really miss the not so old days of buying an actual Racing Form, opening it up to read the articles, then marking up the pages. There was a camaraderie of waiting the form to come in and running into other like minded people. I’m sure Steve and a few others know what I’m talking about. A little more of the magic lost.
Our local store used to order a Racing Form for me every year at Derby time and I loved getting it. Now the store has changed hands and the current owner doesn’t deal with newspapers. So I have to live without the Racing Form and I do miss it. Your post sounds as if it is no longer published. Is that true? If so, it’s a loss for everyone.
BTW the last place finisher of the San Felipe by some 16L to journalism came back today at Anita and beat salty older horses today in OC/alw race. Winner of KD if trip isn’t a formula one race is coming from a Cali horse. Obviously Journalism is one of the ones, but Baeza or Rodriguez just might have that winners shot.
Smooth Crusein was today’s winner
Great draw for Journalism from PP8. A lot of speed to his inside. Journalism breaks well and should sit a good spot behind all of that speed saving ground going into the first turn. I really like Journalism’s chance to Win. So glad I bet him at 52-1 in KDFW 2 and boxed him with the field. Hopefully the weather cooperates and a safe trip for all.
Agreed Joe! Also, Luxor Cafe.
Agree Mike, Luxor also drew well!
Mike….Thoughts on using Grande? Definately the forgotten horse in this race. Thinking about using him in a tr/box.
My wife’s playing an exacta box of Journalism / Publisher
Hello Chief. Grande is capable to hit the board. Best of luck to you!
Great job Joe. He is drawn absolutely perfect, only chance is any horse outside of him buzzsaws him, but don’t forget what Bayern did in BCC from inside. He slammed multiple horses out of gate and impacted multiple horses. Tatics will be out there with a bull eyes on Journalism, who looks to be a clear cut monster.
Good points Jeff.
I actually for the most part is a very good for most of the horses in the race. Early speed on the inside and most of the closers to the outside and stalkers in between.
Should make for a great race.
What do you all think about post 16 for Coal Battle? The commentators on the PP draw show didn’t seem too concerned because of his tactical speed. Thoughts?
arlingtonfan, I’ve learnt that the post positions are found out to be good, or bad, just after the start.
Good comment, the outside posts may be a bit better this year, with most front oriented horses on the inside. I wonder what East Avenue will do.
Interestingly, with the new gate introduced in 2020 Post 18, and Post 20 have been successful in the five runnings.
I like Grande’s post, if he breaks fast and moves up, instead of staying behind in the second tier. I think that’s important for him. Do his connections care? Have heard nothing from him. In a way the closers have a slight edge, with being able to draw in, some not so far back. It could get crowded in the middle!
I will definitely use Grande In my exotics. He drew very well and has Johnny V.
Davids, loss of Liberty Island so tragic.
Condolences to the connections.
Yes, Lynda, just horrible news Liberty Island she was such a brave filly/mare. Life is never safe on the racetrack. Your enthusiasm just wanes and it’s so hard to build it up again, and again.
Davids, I know the feeling.
Better draw than Citizen Bull.
Actually with the new starting gate the #1 is not the issue it used to be. He will have a straight shot down the rail. But the problem maybe if Bob was strategizing of keeping him off the pace that probably won’t be an option now. Otherwise he will probably get buried by the other front runners. He does have one of the best jockeys on getting a horse out of the gate.
They keep telling us that the #1 post isn’t that bad anymore with the new starting gate, but we still haven’t seen a winner come out of there since ’86.
Besides, I don’t think it was really the gate. It’s the crush of 19 other horses coming over on the rail horse that intimidates him. Scares him. Makes him run too fast. I especially wouldn’t want a speed horse in the #1. A horse like Sovereignty might be OK from the #1.
Right on, Tommy…its the horses coming over more than the gate itself….toss
Interesting that 3 of 5 horses from Post 1 since the new gate was introduced have come in fifth. That’s probably the best 5-year span for Post 1 since the 1980s.
Best of luck with your selections.
Post 16 worked for American Pharaoh….
Good point Dominic!
It was post 15.
arlingtonfan, watched interview with Mr Briley after the draw.
He would have preferred a post closer to the middle, like 12 but did not seem to be concerned about 16.
Had to laugh, he said Coal Battle might sit back after the break and have a cup of coffee before getting into the race.
Just love this man and Coal Battle, his exercise rider.
Cannot think of any win on Saturday that would be better than Coal Battle crossing first.
Sometimes we just need an “America’s Horse” like Chrome, Smarty Jones, Carry Back and Seabiscuit.
Yeah, I know, some on here will chastise me for being sentimental.
Chastise? I’m with you! My love for Coal Battle and his connections has increased exponentially since watching his YouTube features and he’s my sentimental favorite to win. This KD it’s all about sentiments for me.
Luxor Cafe or Publisher, because I want American Pharoah to get some respect as a sire.
Rodriquez because Mike Smith
Baeza because he’s gorgeous. And John Shireffs. And Puca.
and Journalism, who I think will win.
May it be a clean race and all finish safely. 🙏
AK, I can offer a sentiment for almost every horse to win!
Thanks!!!
You’re welcome. Linda. Same.
I am getting whiplash from the Render Judgment he’s in- he’s out-he’s in. I don’t wish injury on anyone but perhaps a mandated ptecautionary vet’s scratch or an owner/ group of owners listening to a trainer’s recommendation? I am so hoping Baeza gets in.
AK, I guess it is hard to fight Detby Fever once the bug bites you.
Same here on the whiplash.
I too think it is a mistake.
Still holding onto hope Baeza gets in.
Thanks for that, Lynda. I love Lonnie Briley, too. I’ll have my fingers crossed for him and CB.
Truly a good guy of the sport.
Mike R, indeed he is.
They had been saving that #1 post for BB for 3 years.
Journalism drew perfectly in #8.
Sovereignty way out there in #18.
Luxor Cafe also drew well in #7.
Steve Asmussen probably not too happy that his two runners drew next to each other in #13 & #14.
Sandman drew the 0 for forever #17. It’s overdue.
Don’t forget the Kentucky Derby gate was changed in 2020. With the new structure, post 1 is more like post 3 of the old gate while post 20 in the old gate is more like post 17 now.
In 2020 the winning post was 18, in 2021 the winning post was 7 or 8 if you count Medina Spirit, in 2022 the winning post was 20, in 2023 the winning post was 8, in 2024 the wining post was 3.
Anyone can romanticize until kingdom come,however, rail is deal breaker.
Agree. A great chance Bull gets the lead but will flameout from exerting too much energy
I doubt sees the lead at all….
He*
Yes.
IMO, it’s not just the gate. It’s 19 other horses coming over on the rail horse. A horse sees that and gets intimidated. Runs too fast early. He’d have to be one of BB’s super horses to withstand that and still have something left in the stretch.
Good point about the new alignment. So two of five winners came from Post 8. That should put a smile on the faces of Journalism backers.
Tony, as you would know, the structure of every race is formed after the break but it’s a small sample with the new gate but interesting nonetheless.
Agree, if Journalism doesn’t win they can’t blame the post position.
Yes, David. It will take some time before we can properly evaluate the new gate.
Excuses are as much a part of horse racing as they are in personal relationships!
A couple of familiar names are entered in a one mile, $100K AOC race in tomorrow’s 7th race at Aqueduct. Sand Devil, who finished 2nd in the Gotham, and 6th in the Wood, will have Jose Lezcano back aboard for Linda Rice. Cornucopian, the $1.1 million dollar colt, trained by Bob Baffert, who finished 4th in the Arkansas Derby, is entered as well. He’s listed at 3/5 on the morning line. Irad Ortiz Jr. is scheduled to ride Cornucopian for the 2nd time. In his initial start, Irad guided him to victory, going 6 furlongs, in 1:09.02, at OP, earning an Equibase Speed figure of 108, and a 102 Beyer.
I suspect Baffert will be using this race as a prep for the Preakness.
Journalism just looks so dang good. Like he belongs in a class by himself.
He does carry himself like the alpha! He likes a target to follow and he waits! He goes and gets them! Rispoli needs to get him to shut off…and wait outside of things—He has a good mind! Keep him out of trouble, and worry not, about losing ground—He will take you to the winners circle!..
He sure did. But I’m impressed by a bunch of Derby horses on the track at CD. I can’t wait to read Steve’s analysis of the morning works. His evaluations and insights are always useful.
Same. I have found Steve’s analysis of workouts to be most helpful.
Great draw at P/P #8 for Journalism.
Agree Bill.
Smooth Cruisen dwelt at the start of his October 27th debut race—then he beat a Bob colt and Journalism, paying $45.80….he just won an optional claimer against some fast older horses, handily by two lengths….a 3yo beating older in April….
Pool# 3
All Others – 4/1 -$200 – Includes Final Gambit & Render Judgment
Pool #6
East Avenue – 45/1 -$50
Render Judgment – 225-1 -$50
Final Gambit – 30/1 – $50
With East Avenue I have 1/2 the field. it is inconceivable that one of the 10 will not provide an ROI. But given my luck either Journalism or Sovereignty will win
Counter Point, in 2009, I did not like any of the horses along the trail, Pioneer oftheNile didn’t float my boat especially running on the fake dirt they had in Cali, so I plunged on the all-others at 17-1 in the last pool. Then I saw Summer Bird run third in the Arkansas Derby and close like a train, he was included in that all-others. He was my horse. Derby day he was 42-1. Every horse that went off at odds over 17-1, I put more money down on that day. I can still hear Dave Johnson trying to look at his cheat sheet for the name of that horse that had the 8 on his saddle cloth that snuck up the rail and made fools of them all. Mine that Bird at 50-1. I was happy I put more down. You never know.
You didn’t like I Want Revenge before the scratch?
I did like him, but he scratched. Already had the all-others. I lost on Summer Bird but got redemption five weeks later. I attended the Oaks Day and saw Rachel Alexandra. Weather was great and witnessed a great performance. Woke up the next day to find a sloppy track and not having tickets and not wanting to purchase general admission, we watched the day from afar in French Lick. Mine That Bird winning that Derby is still my favorite. Last year was fantastic, three horses at the wire. I’ll take another finish like that.
Okay. guess I misinterpreted when you said “along the trail.” My favorite finish in recent times was 2021, with four horses within a length at the wire.
David, I’m going to tear the hair out of my head
So I’m very high on AP Kid – he was nominated to the American on Derby Day. He worked today with Mindframe in 47 and change – and that’s a good sign that Todd thinks he could be competitive with such a good horse. Then he turns out to be the 3rd AE in the American, so he’s not going to run. Ugh!
Betsy, you never know A. P. Kid might still get drawn into the race. Have you been to Hampton Court yet? I’m anxiously waiting for the Kentucky Derby and Oaks draw today and the 2,000 & 1,000 Guineas later in the week.
How is the weather, are you going to Newmarket to witness the Rowley Mile Classics?
I’ll hope, but it’s a long shot …some of these horses haven’t ever even run on turf ! Grrr..
No – I was going to maybe go the day after I return to Tunbridge Wells – on Wednesday- but I have to go to the Dentist. I’m going to have to go on my one London day in June, the day before I leave to go home
The weather has been insanely good – it’s going to be in the upper 60’s, low 70’s for the next few days!
No, I’m in Arundel now – lovely little village. I’m going to do a day trip to the Isle of Wight today, & spend Monday in Portsmouth seeing the HMS Victoru, & the Mary Rose.
I’ll try to go to York in June – that would be so much fun!!
Betsy, apart from the teeth, you seem to be having a great time and the weather is playing its part as well. It you haven’t been to the Tower of London try and fit it in on your dentist day – so much history and historical things to see there along with the Ravens.
David, I am!!! And yes, the weather honestly has been a huge bonus – and has made everything better. It’s been a joy waking around on clean, cool air…perfect!
I love the Tower of London! A lot depends on what time I get to London from Paris on June 24 (I’m leaving for home on the 26th). If I get to London early enough, I could see the Tower!
By the way, APK’s work with Mindframe is up on XBTV!
Betsy, you won’t want to leave Paris. Ha ha The Eiffel Tower or the top of the Pompidou Centre gives you a wonderful view of old Paris, it is truly magical. The Pompidou Centre view is closer up.
David, Paris is my favorite older in the world !
Believe it or not, I’ve been to Paris st least 3 times, & have never been to the Eiffel Tower. This time I have tickets! I’m also going to the Arc de Triomphe – because I love it, but also for the view
Ah, cool, yes, Paris is such a beautiful city even the railway stations are architectural treasures. Yes, there have been so many famous and infamous people who have posed at the Arc de Triomphe.
It’s wonderful having lunch at the local parks and just admiring the Eiffel Tower away from the all the tourists.
Could Citizen Bull losing to Journalism in the Santa Anita Derby turn out like 2020 when Authentic lost to Honor A P in a June Santa Anita Derby and coming back to beat Honor A P and favored Tiz the Law in a September Kentucky Derby? I might be reaching. In 2020 there was a New Jersey Haskell in the mix between Arcadia and Louisville.
Obviously, BB trained Authentic and trains Citizen Bull. I’m not sure, but I think Honor A P was trained by John Shirreffs.
Huge difference between contesting the KD in May vs. September.
BB is on record stating that Authentic was very immature during the early stages of his 3 year old season. I would be shocked if CB hits the board next Saturday. Rodriguez on the other hand is a legitimate 10F horse.
With one win over 9F and Cherokee Run as dam sire, you have concluded that Rod is a legitimate 10F horses.
Luxor Cafe has 2 wins over 9F. Is more legitimate?
For the past few weeks you have concluded that Journalism is not worthy of favoritism.
How’s that any different than my opinion of Rodriguez staying 10F unless he gets involved in a suicidal pace.
I think I’d need to see a lot more before I’m certain that Rodriguez is a legit 10F horse
Also, about the 2020 comp, Honor AP was crushed at the start & forced back to last….if not for that, he might have won. So, I think that race is hard to draw conclusions from
Right now, I am looking at 6
American Promise if the pace is quick to moderate he may get a jump on all others
Journalism who stands the best chance of getting first jump in the race to the 1/8 pole.
Sovereignty who like Steve has pointed out, could be sitting on his best race. Loves CD.
Final Gambit will benefit the most, as will Sovereignty, from a fast pace.
Bernham Square who is training so well and will benefit from Borail 2.0 on his back.
Can’t wait for the draw.
You exclude the 6th.
When he gets in the race, I’ll add him in but He is an AE right now.
I like three of the five you mentioned. 🙂
Losing Tappan Street for Derby thru injury was a real gut punch for me as I really liked what he was bringing to the race. Horses are so fragile. Had the type of work I was looking for from him.
Yeah and they places their lives on the line for our entainment.
Edit- place
Tappan Street is another million dollar horse. He would have had only three starts going into the Derby.
Santa Anita has slashed their marketing budget, another sign of future plane, for this huge art deco racetrack….
I love Santa Anita. Both Kaufmann and Benny Priteca who designed Longacres, used art deco designs. My heart was filled with memories of Longacres the first time I visited Santa Anita back in 2012 with my brother for the Breeders Cup. The large checker board squares on the floor, muted tones of green and yellow, thick layered structures, man I could go on but alas I hope this place never goes away. A naive wish I know but this structure is simply artwork and a museum. It’s more than a racetrack.
So very well put! And it’s not far from The Huntingyon Library and Arboretum! Santa Anita IS more than a track–I believe its the reason Mike Repole runs a stable of horses here—Mike knows what the place means, to Horse Racing..-
My instinct says American Promise upsets this field and Lukas wins the Kentucky Derby. I also like Luxor Cafe cause he was breed in Kentucky and trained in Japan. Finally, Sandman looked awesome in the Arkansas Derby with that closing kick. Journalism will finish 3rd or nothing (IMO). So, I’m going to box American Promise/Luxor Cafe/Sandman in an Exacta. Good luck to all and a safe trip. Thanks to Mr. Haskin
It’s not out of the question. There is much to like about the Lukas beast. He will be close to the pace and if it is too hot I can’t see him pulling this off but if it is moderate, he may get first jump. With his frame, that would be deadly for his opponents. He is bred to enjoy more ground so distance won’t be an issue. Pace will be.
American Promise isn’t fast enough over 10F to win the KD. He crawled home in the VA Derby.
When you have posted a 1:33. mile and you’re out front by seven lengths you are afforded a stroll home, in fact most in the industry would highly recommend keeping that fuel in the tank for the next effort. He still managed a 105 Brisnet. Not a number given to 9F efforts that are associated with crawling. By all means, toss him from your wager.
Tru dat, El Kabong. AP also went 4f in 45 1/5 and 6f in 1:08 2/5, with a Late Pace figure of 93. But he’s up against it at this level.
I would box Sandman, Journalism, and Tiztastic. Thinking that they will be fighting for the wire on the last turn. Just a suggestion as all three have the breeding and experience to go the distance.
So two horses are in the derby after their trainers opposed entry. It should go without saying that owners have a right to decide, within reason, about where their horse runs. But why would an owner NOT take the advice of the professional conditioner in the room? Do they know more about the horse than trainers Brian Lynch (Owen Almighty) or Ken McPeek (Render Judgment)?
Render Judgment started the year with an 8th-place finish in the Risen Star, 19 lengths behind the winner. Then he was 2nd by nearly 8 lengths in the ungraded Va Derby, perhaps the weakest of the preps. That race was in mid-March, so several of the runners have returned to race (including RJ) without distinction. RJ was 5th by 4 in the Blue Grass, which did have a solid field albeit with a modest winning speed figure.
Owen Almighty, the Lynch colt, was a fading 6th in the Blue Grass. The last horse to finish first in the KD after finishing 5th or worse in the final prep was Iron Liege…in 1957! Steve Haskin has often said that historical angles don’t matter much unless they can be explained. I think the conclusion one might draw from this angle is that a horse needs to run well in the final prep, regardless of perceived excuses.
.
Hi Tony. For what it’s worth my Dad, who began as a jockey and ended as a racing secretary, also spent some time as a trainer. He always said that the hardest thing about training was dealing with owners who had unrealistic expectations with respect to their horses. Like you I think if you are going to pay a professional trainer, you should listen to them. But there will always be people who think they know more than the person with the expertise.
Thanks for the reply, Dawn. I’m not surprised by your dad’s experience. Trainers have a tough job. I suppose you’ll find that dynamic at play in many walks of life.
Thunder Gulch was 4th in the Blue Grass by 4 1/2L. He returned to win the KD.
Bluegrass Cat finished 4th in the Blue Grass by 21 1/2L. He returned to finish 2nd in the KD at 45/1
Nothing inhibits Render Judgment from running well in the KD.
Thanks for the counter, Point. You’re free to come up with your own angle, but mine concerns finishing fifth or worse in the last prep. Thunder Gulch’s race 30 years ago was indeed quite similar to Render Judgment’s. Let’s give TG a pass because it’s so close. Well, that gives you one such race since 1957. So it’s still a strong angle. But no single “angle” should disqualify a horse from consideration.
I would be remiss in not reminding you of TG’s record before the Blue Grass (3 graded stakes wins) compared to RJ’s (none). Also, Bluegrass Cat didn’t win the derby, so why mention his 6 1/2 length second-place finish?
Tony D, although Owen Almighty tied for 6th in the Blue Grass, he was beaten only 4 lengths and got a surprisingly good Thoro-Graph figure for the race, a 3 ¾. That said, he’s going to have a really hard time finding the lead from the 20-hole.
Hi, Ms B. It wasn’t a BAD race, per se. It just wasn’t good. And his Brisnet figures are declining since the Sam Davis Stakes. Now he has maybe five early-speed types to duel. As for Thoro-graph, I’ve spent hours over time trying to find a consistent pattern for derby winners. Still trying.
Shocked to see Tappan Street is injuried and out of the race. He was definitely a win candidate for me. I wish him a speedy recovery.
He sure did. But I’m impressed by a bunch of derby horses on the track at CD. I can’t wait to read Steve’s analysis of the morning works. His evaluations and insights are always useful.
Sorry. My post was meant for Longshot Hunter’s post further up…way up. Sometimes posting on my phone is challenging..
I was already getting the feeling that Journalism is going to go off at 5-2 or less. Even in a 20 horse field. The unfortunate scratch of Tappan Street only makes it more likely.
I check out a few different sites (none as good as this one) and Journalism is the overwhelming choice. Several times I have read that “Journalism is my surest Derby winner since California Chrome”. Or a variation of that. Well, I don’t know about that. What I do know is that I don’t want to take 5-2 or less on any horse in a 20 horse field.
I seem to remember that American Pharoah went off at 5-2. And didn’t Tiz the Law go off odds-on in that weird Fall Derby? I seem to remember that there were only 15 horses that left the gate in Authentic’s Derby win. I could be wrong.
You remember well about the AP and Tiz derbies. Since 2014, there have been five favorites at 5-2 or lower in May derbies:
California Chrome 2.50-1 (W)
American Pharoah 2.90-1 (W)
Nyquist 2.30-1 (W)
Justify 2.90-1 (W)
Essential Quality 2.90-1 (4th)
Maybe that says something about Journalism’s chances if he’s 5-2 or lower? 🙂
I thought that Tappan Street had a pretty good chance to hit the board. It sounds like he will be OK. Which is good news.
Tappan Street is #3 on Steve Haskin’s Derby rankings.
Maybe 3-1 now…Tappan was a contender….track was sealed today, they are waiting with Journalism, for an unsealed surface—works were fast this morning….I like to get a couple of two year old races—something to build on—they have had WINNERS, that did not run at two—but they don’t LAST—its a hard race, and horses train hard….
Curlin didn’t race at 2. Neither did Zenyatta.
Correct! Zenyatta almost four.
Well, my All Others is up to nine with the unfortunate injury to Tappan Street.
If there is another defection not involving pool #3 All Other betting interest. My $200 will be on half the field.
As a grown man I will be in tears if one cannot provide me with an ROI. But as a grown man I should know how to man up and take my licks.
Half the field – Crazy!
It sounds like you are in a great position. Good luck. I always like to hear about someone having a nice score.
Tappan Street is out of the Derby with an injury, according to DRF. Render Judgment is now in.
I was advised the RJ connections were focused elsewhere. If so Baeza is in.
Ownership changed their mind.
Julian Leparioux picks up Render Judgement.
Baeza is AE.
Thanks.
Derby Fever.
I am a big fan of Blame and a as result I placed a small future wager on RJ at gigantic odds.
Good call to check him out.
Will be going to R&R for surgery.
Wishing him the best and a speedy recovery.
Kentucky Derby Tidbit –
The KDFP #6 did not list the UAE Derby winner Admire Daytona as a betting Interest. he landed in All Other 3YOs.
Stallions that have contested the KD have an excellent record as KD winning sires but the same cannot be se about the actual KD winners. Nine of the last 16 KD winners were sired by KD participants
2024 – Goldncents (17th KD) Mystik Dan
2023 – Good Magic (2nd KD) -Mage
2022 – Keen Ice (7th KD) – Rich Strike
2019 – Lookin At Lucky (6th KD) – Country House via DQ
2018 – Scatt Daddy (18th KD) – Justify
2017 – Bodemeister (2n KD) -Always Dreaming
2015 – PioneerofThe Nile (2ndd KD) – American Pharoah
2012 – Flower Alley (9th KD)- I’II Have Another
2009 – Birdstone (8th KD)- Mine That Bird
NB: Of the likely 20 starters, 9 are sired by KD participants. The last 3 KD winners were sired by KD participants. Will this trend continue?
The last KD winner to sire a winner of the Churchill Down’s 10F challenge for 3YOs was Unbridled. That KD winner was Grindstone (1996) Three likely KD starrers were sired by KD winners – American Promise, Publisher and Luxor Cafe
The KD wins by Justify and American Pharoah brought to an end two significant droughts. Justify became the 2nd KD winner without a 2YO start. the first was Apollo 136 years earlier. American Pharoah became the 12thTC winner ending a span 36 year without one.
Both stallions will have an opportunity to end another drought. That drought is the 28 years since the last KD winner was sired by a KD winner. From my perspective Luxor Cafe is the entrant most likely on be the one.
Whereas KD participants have done well as KD winning sires. They have an abysmal record as KD winning broodmares sires. A KD participant as sire and one as broodmares sire should be producing many KD winners. But such combinations wee
rarely seen in the pedigree of KD winners, until the last two years.
Both the sire and dam sire of Mage and Mystik Dan were KD participants. Can American Pharoah and More Than Ready team up to make it 3 in a row? AP has been disappointing in the shed. But he can be carried by More Than Ready who was the youngest stallion in history to sire 100 stakes winners and 1,000 winners.
CP, would you please post the number of non-winning KD participants vs the number of KD winners. I’m guessing that the ratio is close to 20:1.
I don’t care if Baeza gets in or not, but his connections should hope that he gets in before tonight’s post position draw so that he can get a fair shot at a decent starting position. If he gets in after the draw, he will be an also-eligible and be stuck in the #20 post. He’s no Big Brown. Where’s Sonny Leon when you need him?
If I was a betting man, I’d bet he gets in today or later in the week.
Group 1 races in Australia turn to South Australia and Queensland during the Autumn/Winter months in the Southern Hemisphere.
Today, Saturday, in Adelaide at the Morphettville racetrack we have the Group 1 Robert Sangster Stakes and the Group 1 Australasian Oaks. There is racing at Randwick, Moonee Valley, and Eagle Farm (Queensland) as well.
In the Robert Sangster Stakes the Ciarn Maher mare Estriella by I am Invincible looks positive while in the Australasian Oaks, Too Darn Lizzie by the red hot sire Too Darn Hot trained by Waterhouse & Bott might be able to overcome the favorites.
It’s been the first day/night of wet weather all year here in Melbourne and finally the cool weather is blowing in during the upcoming week.. Good luck with the post position draw for the Kentucky Darby, early morning here around 9:25 am.
Benagil wins the Australasian Oaks…
Forgot to mention, at Ascot in Perth, Western Australia, they are running the 5 million The Kia Quokka at 6f, not a Group race yet. Yes, another Australian sprint race with massive prize money.
What? A major stakes in Australia that’s not yet graded? I thought all the stakes races in Oz were. Sure seems that way when I look at pedigrees, LOL.
Hi Ms Blacktype there are quite a few conditions to be completed before a race is actually graded. Quality of the field, conditions etc but with massive prize money it’s perhaps continuity of the race that counts the most.
You’re right though, the prize money in Australian racing is phenomenal- the rest of the world are poor cousins, even Saudi Arabia ha ha. I remember when major races in Australia were the worst in the world of the major countries.
In 1970 the Melbourne Cup was worth 60,000 this year it’s almost 9 million and now the Melbourne Cup is dwarfed by lots of other races these days.
Those are whopping big purses, Davids. How does the experience of being at the races at the big Australian tracks compare with big days at U.S. tracks? Are Aussies bigger fans, and are they louder a/o more emotional?
In the next day or two we will for the most part be getting the final works for the KD horses. I will be most interested in the following last works.
American Promise
Sovereignty
Final Gambit
Tappan Street
Burnham Square
Chunk of Gold (had his on Friday)
Luxor Cafe
Will comment on them after they are all done
That Coal Battle is a looker. Best looking horse in that race, beautiful face.
I totally agree!
Jay Hovdey article of the 50th anniversary of the 1975 season…the two California colts Avatar and Diabolo collided at the 1/8 pole, in The Derby—Foolish Pleasure went past both, Chic Anderson mistakenly calling him Prince Thou Art …later that year—Governor’s Cup at Belmont–three year olds ran one/two—Wajima by a head, carrying 115….Foolish Pleasure 2nd with 125….Ancient Title 3rd with 130 and Forego 4th with 134! 19 more than the winner! They gave weight in those days..
Well, it appears I have my final continent of ‘All Others’ likely starters –
Admire Daytona
Burnham Square
Chunk Of Gold
Final Gambit
Flying Mohawk
Luxor Cafe
Neoequos
Publisher
I am in a dilemma. I am now forced the select one from the 8 above as the likely winner of KD 2025. If I do otherwise it would equate to betting against my interest.
I never figured this wager would be like a form of harness
I have narrowed the list to 3. Final Gambit and the 2 from the Land of the Rising Sun. What’s my selection option?
How about putting the names in a bag, then make three drawings and hope one name is selected twice. I could then blame the luck of the draw if the one not selected emerges the winner.
The above is one option but I much prefer to use my limited analytic and handicapping skills, along with historic guidance to arrive at a selection.
I am of the opinion that the trend of last out losers winning the KD will come to an end in 2025. Happily, my final 3 are all last out winners. There is a tie between Final Gambit and Luxor Cafe for most impressive last out winner. What’s a possible tie breaker.
My wild imagination is leaning towards a post KD story that indirectly involves BB. TC winner Justify sired the 2024 Epsom Derby winner and American Pharoah sires the 2025 KD winner. BB will not win the 2025 KD, but he will certainly be the center of attention for training two historic stallions.
Luxor Cafe has in interesting dam line. His dam has produced to multi-millionaires. Not bad for a mare whose losing debut was in a maiden claimer. His dam sire More Than Ready was produced from a Woodman mare. Woodman’s dam was sired by Buckpasser. His 2nd dam was sired by Miswaki of Urban Sea fame. Miswaki’s dam was sired by Buckpasser. His 3rd dam was sired by Majestic Light, whose dam was sired by Buckpasser.
This Japanese invader possesses a serious dose of Buckpasser who can be found in the pedigree of several KD winners. Could Luxor Cafe emerge the winner of KD 2025?
He could very well be powered by Buckpasser. if so, I think yes.
What a heart-warming story about the Operation Open Arms kids visiting Coal Battle, Lonnie Briley, and Bethany Taylor. He is their Derby pick, and they brought hand-drawn pictures to present to the Team. Coal Battle and his people are certainly working overtime as racing ambassadors, no matter what he does on 5/3.
Katy, thank you sooo much for mentioning this! Just looked it up online. Heart-warming is the word. That was a perfect way to end my day.
arlingtonfan, Sovereignty looked better this morning, still washy but much less than the other day.
Davids I have noticed several looking “washy”, even track ponies.
Might be the humidity, been running high in Louisville.
Yes, I thought so too, Davids. It’s so interesting tracking these horses from day to day on the Morning Works Show. This is the first year I’ve watched it every single day. Love that the replay of each day’s show is available on YouTube.
Agreed Katy. A great story concerning a blue collar horse and humble connections. Whatever happens with CB in Derby, if remaining sound has a racing future.
A win by Coal Battle will take the sting out of betting losses on any other runner.
Thanks for sharing
Decoupling bill passed in Florida.
DeSantis can veto it..
Yes he can. And the legislature can override it. A two-thirds majority is needed in both houses, and the gov doesn’t have his troops in line for this issue.
Lynda – thanks for posting. I was unaware the bill was up for vote in the Fl. House today. Now it’s the State Senates turn. A version has passed in 2 Senate committees. A 3rd committee vote was shelved last week with no pending date to resume.
Lynda King–How sad for breeders and racing in Florida and the US.
So far, so good the weather looks pretty good for next Friday and Saturday.
Yes, so far.
Rain and TS Wednesday and Thursday.
Have to keep in mind though that Mother Nature can be very fickle when it comes to the weather in the Spring.
Just hoping it is not a mud fest like Justify’s Derby. That was awfu.
Fingers crossed, Lynda.
For Luxor Cafe backers… I noticed he has had a clear outside run in every one of his races. Wonder how he’ll handle running / navigating through traffic if he has to.
The exceptional ones always find ways to win amidst adversities.
The reason I want to see Baeza get in…notbecause I will bet him—but if he draws in he’s no worse than 5th choice….
Hi Matt
Just one more defection, and Baeza makes the starting gate. Fingers crossed.
Isn’t Render judgment next on the AE list?
Per his connections, Render Judgment will not enter the KD.
Instead, they’ll point him to an allowance race for his next start.
Baeza is next up.
Thanks.
He belongs, Bill…went off huge odds in last month Future pool….
Yes sir, Matt, I’ve got a $50.00 win wager on Baeza, at 53-1, in Pool 6.
I suspect we’ll see at least one more defection, which would put Baeza in starting gate.
Fingers crossed, indeed! I’d love to see him in there.
It’s a shame if he’s not in it.
There are two invites every year.
There should be one fans choice entry as well.
Built to Pat Day Mile. Next up is Neoequos.
I’m bullish on Neoequos if he goes for the Mile. I had forgotten what a gorgeous horse Neolithic is!
Sounds like Saffie Joseph wants the Derby.
Juan Moreira rides Luxor Cafe—he’s one of the best ever…not sure about dirt experience…
Is he the jock who was competing with Russell Baze for most wins world-wide? If he’s the one I’m thinking of, then he has extensive experience riding the dirt in Brazil.
Yes, from Brazil. First name is João.
It’s not the guy chasing Baze….
Yeah, Matthew, I was beginning to doubt my recollective aptitude. Baze retired some time ago and his Brazilian counterpart, I believe, was past 50 at the time. So, it can’t be him.
However, this guy Moreira is also from Brazil and they ride dirt and grass there. Also, the horse and jockey are used to competing in large field races, so that’s a plus.
Hi Dewey… Jorge Ricardo was the Brazilian Jockey who broke Rusell Baze’s world record of wins.
Ricardo won his 12,845 race on February 5, 2018 with Hope Glory at San Isidro, Argentina. The same year Jorge Ricardo rode the Brazilian horse Some in Tieme in the Dixiana Elkhorn Stakes at Keeneland. It was his first and only race in the US …
He is 63 now and still riding and has more than 13,300 wins so far…
Hi Nelson, the Australasian Oaks Group 1 is coming up soon if you want to have a look.
Thanks for setting the record straight, Nelson. At least I remembered that he was Brazilian ha, ha.
Still riding at 63???? It looks like he wants to make sure that his record is never broken.
Vai Ricardo!
I like Burnham Square more than Sandman….Sandman has punch—a kick—Burnham has stamina—he’ll stay….
Nickname is “Burnie”….
TOO SLOW
Don’t be so hard on yourself.
Hahaha Tony D!
Caution – The last laugh doesn’t belong to those who endorse ridicule.
kmic, so you’re answering to your own comment?
I much prefer an intellectual exchange. I find those who engage in ridicule to be misguided.
Hahahahahahahaha
Cut the charade ‘Tony’, you aren’t 88.
You’re a sad individual, “Mike.”
You reside in an ivory tower.
Sandman has stamina, not sure why you would imply he doesn’t. He showed no signs of slowing down after he won the Arkansas Derby (other than the fact that the race was over) and has a long stride. He won’t be one of my top picks because he’s green and not especially fast, but I think he has plenty of stamina.
I don’t buy Sandman as a deep closer. He gains all his ground on the turn. Years ago Steve pointed out a horse in the BC Classic, Mucho Macho Man, that if he had the lead at the top of the stretch no one could get past him. Gary Stevens acknowledged Steve Haskin post race for providing him with the key to victory. Sandman’s best shot is to get to the front at the head of the stretch like he did in the Arkansas Derby.
You are correct, Jerry, Mark Casse has, on numerous occasions, stated that Sandman has speed to get position early. Circumstances seem to be confusing some.
Thanks, moderator, another post under moderation. That’s the problem with AI once it makes an error it needs a human to correct the mistake otherwise the error is repeated ad nauseam.
Toss
Why aren’t the big filly races at distances longer than 9f?
The Alabama.
Yes…sorry. I meant the races that are the filly equivalents to the KD, Preakness, and Belmont.
Looking at the post times for races at Churchill on Saturday night, it looks to me like they are going to draw the post positions for the Oaks and Derby between the 5th and 6th races. There is an hour between those two races. Sometime between 7pm and 8pm Eastern. I’m guessing that they might show it on TVG/FanDuel.
Yeah, I’m that guy. The guy that enjoys watching the post-position draw. What else am I going to do at my age on a Saturday night? Play Bingo? Not my game.
I’m 88. My wife and I will be dining out at that time, but you can be sure I’ll be sneaking a few peaks at my phone for the draw.
Tommy you are not alone! Saturday is my playing day—the day I handicap and (try to) watch the races… Post draw for The Derby is must see TV!..
Journalism has really improved as the distances have increased. It should have been expected from a son of Curlin. I don’t hold the fact that he made a start and won at Los Alamitos against him. BB has started plenty of his good ones at Los Alamitos.
Many people will question if Journalism’s last 3 wins, all in 5-horse California fields, will be good enough preps to face 19 other horses in the Derby. Journalism did win his maiden race in a 10-horse field. Truth be told, we don’t know how any of the Derby starters are going to handle the atmosphere at Churchill on Derby Day. 20 horses and a huge crowd. Many in that crowd fueled by way too many Mint Juleps by the time that they get to the 12th race on the card. Even though Journalism has never raced outside the friendly confines of California, and despite those last 3 wins being in mini- 5-horse fields, I see the likely favorite as………………….. a contender.
“Friendly confines”, isn’t that what Vin Scully used to say about Wrigley Field?
The Los Alamitos race replaced The Hollywood Futurity… Los Al is a proving ground, a long stretch.. good horses have run there, not just cheap ones….
Speaking of foaling dates, I notice that American Promise is a May foal. Maybe that Colonial Derby win and subsequent fast works are a sign that he is catching up.
He sure looked good at Colonial.
The 6F split was 1:08.39 and the final time 1:46.41. The math reflects the last3F were completed in 38.02. AP walked home. No part of that 3F split can be considered good.
How many of the top 3YOs of the past 10 years have covered the 8F of a 1Turn 9F race in 1:33.02?
The configuration and elevation of a part racing surface contributed the fractions and final time. AP isn’t a 1:46 plus colt under normal circumstances.
He was defeated in two starts over 8F completed in 1:39 plus
He was defeated in three 8 1/2 completed in 1:44 plus
He broke his maiden over 8 1/2F in 1:44 plus
In the 9F Risen Star completed in 1:48.85. AP was beaten by 13L.
Do not be misled by the VA Derby. AP isn’t as fast.
Steve, I am hoping you can send some light on how American Promise got his name. When I first saw his name under his picture, I thought there was a typo as he looked like a Justify. Did whoever name him get their Triple Crown winners mixed up and thought they were naming an American Pharoah?
I am waiting on the post positions to pick my favorites in the Derby. Sentimentally, I’d love Coal Battle to take the Roses, but boy, Journalism and Rodriguez are looking good!
Could Godolphin’s long quest for KD glory end with a 1-2 finish in the 2025 KD? But could Journalism be the likely entrant to prevent such an unlikely occurrence?
The 3 contenders profiled above all have February foaling dates with East Avenue being the eldest. There is also similarity in dam sire category. Bernardini was champion 3YO. Ghostzapper was a HOTY and Uncle Mo was a Champion 2YO.
In the dam category East Avenue and Sovereignty were produced from unraced mares. Journalism’s dam was an accomplished race mare at the graded stake level with 26 starts and earnings of $876K.
From a historic perspective, high earning mares are rarely associated with KD winners. However, unraced and lightly raced mares have far more success. But it’s not all negative for Journalism. Rich Strike’s dam was a $560K earner and possibly the highest earning mare not adjusted for time, to produce a KD winner.
From the sire’s perspective, both Journalism and Sovereignty have historic hurdles to cross. Curlin will be represented by 2 entrants and Into Mischief by 3. I haven’t done extensive research but rarely do sires with multiple entrants emerge the winning sire. But what has not occurred in many years can occur on any given 1st Saturday in May.
In the case of Sovereignty, there is an additional bit of history that makes him an unlikely winner. His sire Into Mischief sired back-to-back winers of the KD albeit one was via a DQ. Three years later his first son at stud sired the winner of the KD.
In a span of 5 years, Into Mischief along with one of his sons have been associated with 3 KD winers. Has a grandsire ever been the KD winning sire the year after his son did the honors?
Three of Mr. Prospector’s sons sired KD winners i.e., Fappiano, Gulch & Our Emblem. But his sole KD winner Fusaichi Pegasus was not the winner the year after any of his sons were the winning sire.
In the event neither Journalism nor Sovereignty can overcome historic hurdles. East Avenue who has the speed and class to go gate to wire, could emerge the winner and Sovereignty could pass journalism late to secure 2nd.
What a script! Written by some experiencing cognitive decline.
EDIT: Written by someone experiencing cognitive decline
Godolphin has a big shot! One will be sent after the lead and their bigger chance is their big closer—who already ran well there..
“Unraced and lightly raced mares have far more success” than “high earnings mares” in the KD? You said this before about unraced mares, and I questioned you on it. You didn’t reply. Now you’ve added “lightly raced mares” to your statement. Would you define these terms? As for derby winners (and DQed 1st-place finishers) from unraced mares, Mine That Bird was the last one.
I have had crushes on Final Gambit, Sovereignty, and Publisher. But they have faded after diving deeper.
I’m now infatuated with East Avenue.
1) Not sure there is a better pedigree (thank you Steve).
2) I see his Blue Grass the same as Steve does.
3) He is my favorite looking horse on the grounds with his deep V12 block engine chest.
Think people are writing this horse off because he is speed in a race that projects to have a fast pace. But I think he is a lot more dangerous than people think. He is the speed horse I would fear most.
Why feat the most instead of love the most?
fear
For those writing off the speed horses…
There’s always a chance that one speed horse will emerge from the chaos of the derby start to get a clear lead with a moderate pace. But it could be any of them. East Avenue finally was competitive in his last race. But since his big win in the Breeders Futurity last year, he hardly picked up his hooves in the BCJ. After a 3.5-month layoff, he ran barely 6f before packing it in at the Fairgrounds. That’s not the kind of preparation that you see in derby winners. He’ll be a big price in the derby, but so will several others with a better chance.
While not the typical preparation for sure, for this horse, I think his Blue Grass was exactly what he needed to get his mojo back. I think the fact that he battled back after losing the lead in the stretch showed this.
I had never seen the movie “Kentucky.” I watched it last night and I enjoyed it, especially the part with the Derby, “My Old Kentucky Home,” and Churchill Downs the way it used to be. Thank you for bringing it to my attention.
Jiffy, that’s exactly what I liked about the film when I first saw it when I was around 5 years old along with Loretta Young and the horses. Any film with horses in it…
Interesting that you would appreciate those aspects of the film when you were only five. You were a born racing fan–I didn’t get there until I was a teenager. Loretta Young was a favorite of my mother’s, partly because of her religious faith, and she was very good in that movie. Films with horses can indeed be beautiful. I recently rewatched “Thunderhead” and “My Friend Flicka,” and the scenery and the horses there were amazing.
Jiffy, I was riding Shetland ponies with my best friend Woody at age five, we were racing each other then. We fell off often too. Ha ha we watched every horse movie, tv show. Lots of Country and Western movies, we thought Paul Newman was the ‘ant’s pants.’
We were mustering cattle by eight. Ha ha
I’m certain that after the final Derby preps were done, most people had their selections of what horses they liked without regard to post positions or workouts that precede the Derby . I for one, know I did, and coming out of my 3 week hibernation, I haven’t seen anything that has changed my mind.
More often than not, when it comes to high level dirt races, Bob has to be dealt with one way or another when constructing a winning ticket.
Journalism is a nice colt, but I can’t imagine what will be going through Rispoli’s mind on Derby day. I think it will be a big learning experience for him.
Good point about Rispoli. He rode Rock Your World to a convincing win in the SA Derby yet the connections went with Rosario to ride in Derby.
Rispoli is a bit of a loose cannon. But Sonny Leon won the Derby. Why not Umberto?
TommyMcD… big difference from being the favorite (expected to win) and being the longshot (not a chance to win) by the betting public.
I’m not questioning Rispoli’s ability to win the Derby. I just pointed out what the connections decided in a previous instance.
BB has an excellent record in TC races for the better part of the last 10 years. However, in the Breeders Cup high level dirt races, he doesn’t possess a dominant status.
All those :59 5-furlong workouts take a toll come November. No offense.
Rispoli has had derby experience, in 2021 and 2024. He’s an excellent rider.
Favoritism of winning a major race carries more weight mentally than not being expected to win with no chance.
Maybe so. But buckling under the pressure isn’t a problem until it BECOMES a problem. Rispoli has won 12 G1s in the U.S. since 2021. Stewart Elliott had never raced in the Derby and had no G1 wins before Smarty Jones.
haha Tony D … ok … even if those big wins were on grass … the 20 horse KD field is a different animal when YOU are favored to win … Goodluck if he’s your guy.
He won’t be my derby day pick. I have him at a much better price in the KDFW, and I also have Sovereignty, Burnham Square, and Tappan Street. I’ll be looking for another one at nice odds on May 3. It could be [I can’t believe I’m about to type this] LUXOR CAFE.
hahaha … well Luxor is a unknown who could surprise… his last race was monstrous.
It’s PRESSURE to produce expectations for your connections.
Sovereignty has been washy in most of his appearances on the CD track. Does anyone know if that’s usual for him?
arlingtonfan, I listen to the DRF Clocker Reports with Mike Welsch and he stated that Sovereignty was NOT washy in Florida. I wouldn’t worry too much now but by early next week if this hasn’t stopped I would be very concerned.
Th colt is washy around the neck area. There is nothing to be alarmed about.
He has been o his toes and tugging his rider literally begging to be let off the bridle. He is bursting at the seams with fitness. He hasn’t been allowed to extend himself and that pent up energy has to find an outlet.
Counter, exactly! He’s sitting on go.
I am a little surprised that Citizen Bull is pressing on to the Derby after finishing 4th of 5 in the Santa Anita Derby. Beating only his stablemate Barnes. I wasn’t too impressed with the ride that Martin Garcia gave him that day with a kind of herky-jerky move to the outside on the backstretch. Losing to Journalism and Baeza isn’t so bad. But finishing behind Westwood is cause for concern. Besides all that, Citizen Bull looks smallish to me. He looks fine when working solo, but when running with other horses, he looks smaller than all of them. Of course, I’m watching on TV or my laptop screen. Not the same as seeing the horses up close and personal. BB’s preferred running style when he has two horses in a race is to have one on the lead and the other at his flank. I’m not sure that BB will get that scenario next week.
And I keep forgetting about the Lukas horse. The rousing winner of the Colonial Derby. He will be going for the lead as well.
An interesting race. Even if I think only six of them can win.
Who knows? Maybe BB will do a bait and switch with Citizen Bull. I watched six or eight of the most workouts by the various contenders today and found myself impressed with him; less so with Tiztastic, the perennial forgotten horse, who I like for the superfectas. Citizen Bull is a very good horse. Usually 2YO champions don’t do well in the Derby, but he may surprise, at least in the exotics. He’s a lot fitter than he was in the Santa Anita Derby.
I watched two works by Sovereignty today. One was from March 15, and the most recent one from a few days ago. He looked worlds better (as he should) in the April work.
I like Journalism for the win, but am up in the air about who to include in my exacta/superfecta calculations. There’s time.
Sovereignty looked like he was in a sauna this morning.
Brian Lynch says that he wants Owen Almighty to rate off the pace. Brendan Walsh has said that East Avenue will sit off the pace. The blinkers are possibly coming off of Citizen Bull. I’ll believe all of it when I see it. Maybe the trainers are playing mind games with each other. If all of this is true, Rodriguez could be on a lonely lead. Plans can change fast when 20 horses break from the gate on the first Saturday in May.
The trainers had better tell this to the jockeys. The horses may not understand verbal instructions.
Tommy, Owen is a nice horse,however not suited for 10f.
The results in the Kentucky Derby over the years, particularly the last five, has forced me to think way outside the box.
Many might be inclined question my mental acuity regarding the many angles fpm which I am approaching a possible ROI in the 2025 KD. The likely field 2025 KD field is ripe with intrigue.
TAPIT –
Belmont winners – Tonalist, Creator, Tapwrit.
To state that Tapit is synonymous with stamina would be gross understatement. He stands alone as the stallion that injected the most stamina in progenies. But inexplicably none of his progenies have passed the post in a top 3 slot in the KD.
The undefeated Essential Quality represented his best entrant in the KD to date, and he couldn’t get the job done. Sandman will be Tapit’s lone representative in the 2025 KD. But he is no part of Essential Quality, consequently he is unlikely to succeed where EQ failed.
Whereas Tapit is only represented by one progeny in the KD, mares sired by the Belmont King will be represented by 3 – Tiztastic, Final Gambit and American Promise.
Mares sired by Tapit have been associated with the Belmont winner Arcangelo and Dubai WC winner Hit Show.
It’s not often a dam sire is represented by so many entrants in the KD. Given Tapit’s stamina influence and success as a sire and dam sire, he could follow up being dam sire of the DWC winner with the KD winner.
Go Final Gambit!
The Kentucky Derby is a betting proposition where the favorites can run one/two—and you can win big!….I’m living g proof, 1989 I turned $153 I to $5100, just by putting Sunday Sikence over Easy Goer, and I always thought Easy was better—but not that day over that track surface….a $10 yrifecta using the two favorites one/two over Final Gambit costs $20—and would pay over $3000….
EDIT- He stands alone as the stallion that injects the most stamina in his progenies.
Have you forgotten who won the 2021 Belmont Stake?
Essential Quality, sired by Tapit. That’s 4 Belmont Stakes winners and this year might even be number 5 by the great sire.
Curlin, another noted sire of stamina has yet to sire a Kentucky Derby or a Belmont Stakes winner.
The Kentucky Derby is a 20 horse field with luck the winner, totally random choice by sire but it’s as good as using a pin or a hat. Ha ha
Curlin’s Palace Malice won the Belmont in 2013. Hoping his Journalism wins the Derby!
I always forget Palace Malice. Yes, SoloSolo, I know Counter Point has been merciless in bagging Journalism that’s mainly why I mentioned Curlin a slight dig back. Journalism looks mighty tough.
Tapit has as good a record as a sire of dams as he does as a sire. Zero for whatever. Better to handicap the derby based on the past performances of runners.
Referring to Derby winners’ pedigrees, of course.
Yes Tonalist, Creator and Tapwrit all won the Belmont at 12 furlongs. All three had Tapit sire. What those three horses have in common and bettors who blindly bet on Tapit in the Belmont or the other Classics is that all three had a non-Phalaris dam sire. Tonalist-Pleasant Colony, Creator-Damascus and Tapwrit-In Reality. I won on all three because that is what I look for. Mystik Dan-Relaunch, without a Tapit sire, also had a non-Phalaris dam sire. That is why I bet on him last year. This type of horse that used to be prevalent are not anymore because breeders have bred it all out of the racehorse. Getaway Car-Relaunch with a non-Phalaris dam sire was the only runner this year that even got a sniff of qualifying, but Baffert trained him like he trains all his horses, like a Ferrari. Ruined him. In the hands of a patient trainer like Drysdale or Shirreffs or Mott, we might have seen him in the gate. It is not just Tapit on top, it is the stamina mare, that matters. Before Mystik Dan it was Animal Kingdom, Giacomo, Smarty Jones, Real Quiet, Silver Charm, Gor for Gin, Sea Hero, Strike the Gold, Unbridled and Sunday Silence, all non-Phalaris. I won’t go further. These days you can barely find a mare with a non-Phalaris sire.
Excellent points, Rod, usually the progeny of Tapit who excel at a distance have dams who are ladened with stamina influences. As you wrote, just Tapit on top does not immediately = stamina.
Never thought I would live to see the day.
Congratulations to Hall Of Fame inductee Smarty Jones!!!!
Yes, Saw that ….FINALLY !!!!
DTS, certainly brought tears to my eyes.
Bless your heart, Lynda…. seems all those years the voters were wearing blinkers when it came to voting for him.
Lynda we too celebrate smarty jones 🐎❤️thanks Steve for all
Your help getting smarty in the hall
Of
Fame
Who
Will
Ever forget what smarty meant for so
Many in 2004!
Horses like Smarty are the heart of the sport!
I am so thilled. Had a great talk with Pat Chapman. today
Long overdue and deserving.
Thanks Steve, I am so pleased for Pat Chapman and for John Servis. It’s especially sweet for John Servis considering what his brother has done. Jason Servis destroyed his own career and sullied his family name. Chappy Chapman (Pat’s late husband) is passing out cigars up in heaven.
Lynda King–Thanks. I am so happy for all connected to Smarty Jones. I met Smarty Jones, his owner Pat Chapman, and trainer John Servis at Parx when there was a Smarty Party. Mrs. Chapman is such a lovely person.
Now the next horse and trainer to get in should be Seattle Slew and his late trainer, Billy Turner to be admitted to the Hall of Fame.
Terri that must have been wonderful!
Seattle Slew was inducted into the Hall of Fame in 1981.
Thanks. Oops it was Billy Turner and Jean Cruget who were passed over by the Hall of Fame.
Thanks Lynda. Smarty looked good enough to go for a run around the track.
Seattle Slew was inducted in 1981
Happy to hear this! Smarty deserves it on racing accomplishments and heart alone. He probably would have made it in sooner if he’d been a phenomenal stallion, not merely a good one.
Ms B, exactly!
Yes, Thank You Steve for supporting him all these years!
Yes, great news, Lynda.
The HOF Commitee finally came to their senses (thanks to the constant prodding by Steve). Smarty Jones was the People’s Horse as evidenced by the enormous support by his fans as we saw with the record setting crowd at Belmont Park for the Belmont. A collective 120,000 + hearts sank that day as Smarty tasted defeat at the hands of Birdstone. To my mind, that was Smarty Jones finest race as he was under pressure almost the entire race. He did himself proud in a splendid effort never giving up. He had tons of heart and this fan was so proud of him. Love you, Smarty.
Thank you Steve for the entire writings, all season long! Been a joy!
Everyone has left The Bull’s bandwagon; Bob said he was well short for the SA derby; and has put a lot of work into him since. Bull looks terrific and is no slouch. Don’t recall if a bad prep basically cancels out any chance of running well in the KD. I do know he has been training like a champ, looks to be in top top shape, which still may not be good enough. Seems like a flyer of a chance at big odds for a champion. Any perspective from you on the Bull would be appreciated….
CB was ready for the SA derby, judging by his works and Baffert’s comments. What’s a bad race? He was finished before a mile in the SA derby. When has a horse lost by almost 10 lengths and then won the Ky derby? Ever?
Mandaloun finished 6th by 11 3/4L in the LA Derby and returned to finish 2nd in the KD by a 1/2L.
His reversal of form was good enough for him to be promoted to the winner after the post-race DQ of Medina Spirit.
Given the Mandaloun story, Citizen Bull isn’t without hope.
Mandaloun had stringhalt, in his final prep …I thought Citizen Bull had worked super, before the SA Derby—O was surprised! His performance was hard to believe, I was also surprised how quickly Bob brushed it off, I cannot get a “tead” on this colt—he is built more like a miler type, and he won’t get an easy early lead—I’m not using him..
ONCE AGAIN, Mandaloun was officially declared the winner 9 months after the race. Medina Spirit finished first and paid $26.20. Unless you shared in the newly distributed purse money, a Mandaloun win is meaningless for statistical/handicapping purposes. I’m not going to remind you about this again. And I never said CB is without hope. He’s just without a serious chance of winning.
Sure,something I’ve stated for months. His chances are almost nil.
Jeff, Im one of the few still interested in CB but I noticed his dosage is a 9…he has one of the highest in the field. Of all the angles, this one seems to remain relevant but is mostly considered antiquated. Im going to use him a bit and curious if Steve has any insight as well.
Please bet heavily on him: I will enjoy taking all your money and CDI is still going to need it for their upgrades.
Thanks Jeff. Bull looked great in his moat recent work. Just a question how far he’ll carry his speed. Can’t wait to see how the pace plays out.
Come on Jeff! Last race Baffert stated CB was ready.
Are there any negatives that can be referenced regarding Journalism? All that I have highlighted have either been removed or deleted.
Is the colt in the witness protection program?
In 2024 my final post regarding Fierceness as a bet against was deleted. Fierceness finished 15rth by 24L.It appears no lessons were learnt.
The section of my post regarding an assessed negative associated with Journalism was deleted. If I had posted glowing remarks about Journalism. Would they have been deleted? Absolutely not.
To the powers that be seems to have entered silly season. When Journalism finishes off the board. Your deletion and/or removal of posts highlighting the colt’s negatives will plaster eggs all over your face.
This is no way to operate a website that invites comments.
Did it occur to you that you keep repeating the same things over and over about Journalism? You’ve made it very clear that you’re not in love with said horse. Where I come from…that’s called OCD.
Perhaps, you should focus your energy on a horse you love and let us all know who that may be. Unless you’re sheepish with your pick(s).
He doesn’t listen to anyone. I told him all future references to Journalsim will be deleted and he keeps doing it anyway. Wait until all his post Derby comments are deleted if he doesnt make a definitive selection. I only let this one stay because of the responses.
Translation….Counter Point doesn’t like Journalism. Got it. Then don’t bet on the horse.
Simple as that. Now move on.
John, who are your top three currently?
Haven’t yet decided. Waiting on the pps. And of course, the weather.
No problem with waiting until Derby Week. That’s how it should be if you’re a serious bettor.
Thanks John for your reply.
You should move on! He put his opinion out there…if you disagree .MOVE ON. Who do you pick in the derby?
CP, colts who have run a 108 beyer (i understand beyers have little meaning to many) in March have not fared well. The same way any 2 yr old posting a triple digit beyer before the bc juvenile is a death knell, running a 108 before the derby has not helped the likes of fierceness, materiality, bodemeister, afleet alex, bellamy road…greelys galaxy ran close to that. Magnitude apparently came out of his 108 figure poorly. Chrome got it done but just putting this info out for consideration. I think there is a cause for concern with the small fields and regression in last. Hes a deserving favorite, but im not all in. Gotta use him obviously, but hes not an all in type for me like Justify was.
I’m not a fan of BSFs, but I keep track of them to understand the public betting. Here are a few Derby winners who had a 108 BSF in their penultimate preps: California Chrome (as you pointed out), new Hall of Famer Smarty Jones and Real Quiet. Close to that were Big Brown and Fusaichi Pegasus, both with a 106. I don’t think it’s a significant factor either way.
Then leave – we got it the first time you mentioned it. Hope he wins going away, like Barbara so you can eat your crow pie.
It gets old listening to you whine
If only.
I like to bet certain angles in my Derby wagers. Also use info from the posters on this site that I find knowledgeable in wagers. That said, here’s 1 gimmick wager I came up with. 1st crop 3yo’s in an exacta box – Rodriguez, Tiztastic, Baeza. Could very well be a 2 horse box should the latter not draw in.
Good one! Gimmick wager, yes. Angle? Not so much. Ha ha.
Saw 2 workouts today. One by Sandman 5 furlongs in 102.4 was not impressed. Would have preferred faster especially since there are still 10 days to go and he is a closer. I like fast workouts for closers especially as the race gets closer This supposedly is his last work before the big dance. The other work was done by Citizen Bull a 7 furlongs in 124.2 done very nicely and done alone but am a little bit puzzled in that he was “wearing blinkers”. In his previous work he was “not” wearing blinkers and was tracking another horse and promptly disposed of in the stretch and finished strong. I think Baffert is teetering on what he wants to do with this horse in the Derby.
Saw Journalism today at CD and he looks really nice and I just love the way he moves. Sovereignty looked really good and galloped nice and coat just glistened Saw a little bit of American Promise and he looks alert, very fit and muscled. Burnham Square looked good galloping and was more settled than the other day. … waiting to see his final work and hope it is a fast one. Saw Admire Daytona yesterday and he looked good. Did not go very fast but that is OK as he is a frontrunner and they also said his connections give a steady diet of 1 1/2 to 2 mile gallops … stamina builders !!!
DTS, Sandman worked 5f in 1:03 1/5, ten days before his Ark Derby win. This isn’t a problem. The problem is that he’s been an out of the clouds closer.
There will be several closers in the KD and I will be looking for one win a fast last work out
That should have been ” with ” not ” win”
On the morning KD workout show Mark Casse was interviewed about yesterday ‘s work for Sandman . He said Sandman didn’t realize he was in a work and they sort of had to wake him up at the top of stretch…. BTW it was pointed out Sandman is 0 for 3 at CDI. IN another note it is for now being reported that Citizen Bull will not be wearing blinkers for KD… stay tune for that one!!!!
Just read the Casse said the the horse did not even take a deep breath after that work….. Grandma wouldn’t have taken a deep breath after that work. But you know he said he was happy with that work and if he is happy with it he is happy with it !!!
Downthestretch, you can always tell when a trainer is unhappy with a work by their response to journalists questions. Mark Casse was as cool as a cucumber with Sandman and has been all year.
It’s post position that concerns me with Sandman, 6 or further in would be a real negative.
I have a comment waiting to be moderated on. The moderating A1 needs moderating, it’s flawed.
There are at least four confirmed need the lead type horses in this 20 horse field.
Rodriguez, both his wins are W2W.
Citizen Bull, all 4 wins are W2W.
American Promise, both his wins are W2W.
East Avenue, both his wins are W2W. Just missed going W2W in the Blue Grass Stakes.
Depending the PP draw, there might be one or two pressers that end up with extremely wide post positions. Horses and jockeys will get amped up and avoid being caught wide before reaching the clubhouse turn…. this could easily turn into a suicidal dual for the lead….. which bodes well for patient stalkers and closers.
I agree, Zany. But I’d add Owen Almighty to the list. His only two wins this year were gate to wire.
Seems like a lot of years, would be front runners have gate trouble and someone emerges with the lead
Pace setter will be Rodriguez or the Bull. Calif speed clears typically
Thanks for the list. Their wins are wire to wire, but none at 10F. I believe that they will all be passed by Journalism, Sandman, and Tiztastic and the winner will be the one with the most stamina and of course an opening. I think it is over due for Tapit DNA to win the Derby, but we will see.
Yes, William, the ‘perceived’ shape of the Kentucky Derby race appears in my mind, and yours, to favor these three horses in particular. Pre-post positions anyway. Sovereignty, I have a problem with, he just looks the type of large colt that could get stopped and that’s it for him.
Coal Battle, might just get the perfect trip and is able to use his burst of speed at the right time. The Arkansas Derby exposed Coal Battle’s limitations but the Kentucky Derby is a totally different race.
I think Baeza could be dangerous if he gets in. The rest I have no fear of.
Thanks, and I agree about Baeza, but he is shy on experience. Post position should not really matter to the closers, but will matter to the speed horses who are going to try to go wire to wire. I just don’t see any speed horses with the stamina to keep from being passed on the home stretch, especially after they have battled for the lead. Maybe there is a Secretariat in the bunch, but I don’t see any and surely not the Into Mischief lines.
Yes, William, it looks the ‘perfect storm’ for the closers to me it’s theirs for the taking. The speed horses can scatter the field as much as possible so the closers can take clear aim 2 furlongs out. If Sandman gets a clear run throughout it’s going to take a Secretariat to beat him. Sandman looks primed.
Two horses that do that well are Tappan Street and Journalism. My worry for Tappan Street is his jockey gets caught up in the excitement and engages the horses too early in the race and he has nothing left in the stretch.
On another thought …. much has been said about Coal Battle moving too early in the Arkansas Derby. I have watched that race several times and I feel nothing would have changed the results in the end. Sandman was the better horse that day. His jockey and Sandman’s jockey both made there move at the sametime and Sandman caught Coal Battle and passed him. Waiting a little longer might have made the finish a little closer but not by much and Publisher who finished 2nd was not gaining much on Sandman in the end.
One other thing and the big unknown is …. Will American Promise quit ?!?!?!
DTS, American Promise is one of the most mysterious entries, in my estimation. When Lukas said AP would start in the Lexington, I nodded and thought, “of course.” When he changed his mind, I took notice. There’s some kind of information in this very non-DWL decision, but I’m danged if I can figure out what it is! I like the May foal date angle, that they’re letting him grow. And trying to hold form. Also wonder if he thought about another Justify, Just Steel, and how he didn’t stand up to the normal DWayne training program last year.
Off the AP topic, Final Gambit is another horse with a superb prep that I find hard to peg. I just keep coming back and wondering.
With these two, I feel like that viral video guy re: preps and schedule: “Full on double rainbow! What does it mean?!”
Admire Daytona ran in fields of 16 in his first 4 starts. He might be the lone entrant with such a record.
He shipped from Japan to Dubai to win a 9 1/2F race under pressure from start to finish. He appears to be the only entrant with a dual country win.
He has carried the KD impost of 126lbs in his last 3 start that included the UAE Derby.
The colt appears to have useful exposure suited for the KD i.e., weight, field size, race distance and a win subsequent to lengthy plane ride.
He is certainly battle tested,
CP, I’m shocked that you wrote, “The ML KD favorite had to pass just one opponent 3 of his 4 wins” and expect the smart folks here to believe you.
November 17, passed 4 horses (field of 10, by the way)
December 14, passed 2 horses
March 1, passed 3 horses
April 5, passed 4 horses
There no data to support a contention that the horse that’s experienced the largest fields has an advantage. California-based derby hopefuls regularly face fewer opponents than runners from further east. We all know how well they’ve done in the derby.
Uhhh….How were you able to edit your post? Your sentence that I quoted accurately is gone. What the…?
Oh. It must have been the moderator (or Steve) who deleted portions of the CP post.
A grey explosion is pending for the 1st Saturday in May.
2000 Guineas – Field Of Gold -Juddmonte
Kentucky derby – Final Gambit – Juddmonte
Does anyone think that Publisher being a “maiden” is a problem? I think he has a very good chance to fill out the trifecta. Would it really matter that he finished 2nd rather than 1st in his last MSW? This horse has improved with each stakes race. In the Rebel, he finished just behind the next-out Arkansas Derby winner (Sandman) and just ahead of the next-out Louisiana Derby winner (Tiztastic). In the Arkansas Derby, he beat Rebel winner Coal Battle and the odds-on Cornucopian. He’s not a maiden in my view.
I knew Secretariat (the movie) was gonna blow when I read the director wanted to change the margin of victory of the Belmont to make it more dramatic.
As far as movies go, Seabiscuit > Secretariat by a furlong. Sorry, Secretariat.com
I didn’t mean this as a reply. Supposed to be a stand-alone post
The margin of victory was the whole story.
Director Randall Wallace says the distances are accurate to within 1/2 length in each re-creation.
Sorry Lynda, my comment intended for the clown ‘person’.
You’re always a charmer.
That’s OK.
Do the same sometimes.
The way I see it is , Publisher got the points needed to get in the gate . The rules don’t say the entrant has to win a race just has to have a points total within the top 20 . Which he has accomplished! Now should he be in the race ? YES !
Should he win good for the connections . Some forget every year it a stampede a horse wins and the rest don’t that’s the game they want . $$$$$
Less is more !
Will I have money on Publisher ? Yes he has as good of a chance as any horse in the gate .
Will he win ? If he gets a good run and not too much trouble, he has a chance . This is a 1-1/4 mile race only 2 have run close to this distance. Many are going to hit a wall and not win . Who ?? No one knows or are not saying. Does Owen Almighty belong ? Yes he has the points, should he? I think the horse is better off in a shorter race. I believe in listening to those I hire! Hopefully no horse or jockey are injured.That’s the game !
Should Beaza (sp) get in ? Absolutely not unless horses are injured or removed from the entry box . Legitimately! The rules is the rules!
Greed is ruining this sport.
Wow never wrote that much before I usually keep my opinions to myself.
Ha ha! I’m happy that my post inspired you to reply. I agree. You earn enough points to get in the gate, then you belong in the gate. But CD sure better change their rule that penalizes horses that are entered in a race that subsequently draws only 5 runners!
Tony D– I agree. That is a problem at Santa Anita. They get horses to fill the slots at Gulfstream even if they are unlikely to win. They tried to do the same at Santa Anita without success. Perhaps there is some lingering resentment as one person dominates as the trainer at Santa Anita.
It’s a self-fulfilling prophecy of sorts. Baffert wins a high percentage of races, so other trainers avoid him, which leads to an even higher percentage of winners for Baffert. You would think that trainers know when their horses are ready to fire their best races. Why not give a high-priced claimer or allowance runner a chance for a piece of a big purse?
If you havent seen the 6-part documetary “Race to the Crown” on Netflix it is a must-see. Its like a vitamin B shot for racing and spectacular to look at. And boy ddid they pick the right people to follow.
Thanks, Steve. I have it marked to watch.
If he misses The Derby—Baeza could be a good price, In the Preakness future wager, where he’s currently 12-1….most of the Derby horses skip the Preakness….should Baeza miss The Derby I think he will be one of the Preakness favorites—so you’re wagering on whether he gets into The Derby or not….it’s why Preakness Futures favor horses that did not run in the Derby—simply because so many from The Derby do not run….
I’m thinking of another way the Derby might be won. Mike McCarthy had the late Ben Cecil (the nephew of Sir Henry Cecil who trained Frankel) as his mentor. Not only does he have the favorite horse; but Journalism survived a difficult test in the Santa Anita Derby.
(Prior to the championship of the Miami Heat, the wife of one of the bosses had died of cancer. It was a close final game and the ball had stayed and lingered on the rim. Pat Riley said that he felt that her spirit helped them win the championship that year.)
Perhaps Journalism will have some angelic assistance in winning the Derby this year.
Thanks, Steve, for this piece on “the stuff that dreams are made of,” as only you can do.
Looking forward to next week’s edition.
Steve, I love the premise of a movie for this piece! I’m think it will go further to a Trilogy. The Derby- Game, Preakness- Set, Belmont – Match. Is it to early to say ” HAPPY DERBY”
I have a secret plan to score big in this derby. I will be doing a rain dance every day. And then bet… Publisher.
On the improve, last three Beyers 81 > 86 > 95.
Should get another nice pace setup.
Looking great physically at Churchill.
Ran great both times on a wet/muddy track, one of them at Churchill.
Daddy wants rain and 30-1. 🙂
Last time i checked the Louisville forecast for May 3….cloudy and 73.
Wondering if Publishers last 2 Beyer Speed figs from86 to 95 are a bit big? Bounce factor could enter the picture.
He went from a 93 to a 98 in Brisnet figs. Five points, nine points…Either way, a bounce shouldn’t be an issue. His running style could be a problem.
Yeah maybe? I’m not good at predicting bounces. I just think he’s looking really good physically and holds an advantage on a wet track. Pace set up and 25 to 30-1 make him worth a play across the board imo.
Why was my post removed?
David, I couldn’t reply to you below…
Yes, Hever is beautifully maintained….it has a fascinating history aside from Ann Boleyn, actually. It was restored & added to by William Astor
Rank won’t be given a break, sadly. I’m extremely disappointed by how Doug has handled him
I haven’t, TBH. Without a true rooting interest, I’m not motivated to do such a deep dive
Trip is going great! Too bad I now have to find a dentist, sigh
Betsy, check through the NHS for dentistry assistance, it can be used if you are visiting the UK. You call 111 or 111 dot nhs dot uk for information. Good luck, sorry to hear that.
David, thanks – I will!!!
When I get back home, my dentist is going to hear about it, lol – this is on them!
Thanks! I’m not going to let this ruin my fun !
That’s the way. I’d get some soothing gel from the Chemist in the meantime or perhaps they may have a better solution. Good luck. Nothing worse than teeth trouble.
Soups and soft foods for a while.
Oh it doesn’t hurt, fortunately – I just think my new crown is going to fall out at some point …..grrrr
But yeah, soups and soft foods indeed!
Thanks!
Will you be gone while you are gone?
Wonderful read Steve, thanks to you for making the Derby Trail a positive experience again.
Always, always such a good read. An exciting Derby for all of us in 2025. You never disappoint. Thank you
Im curious if anyone here puts much weight into Sovereignty’s last 2 beyers: 92 and 95. He is likely to become the 2nd derby choice with the lowest beyers in history. I understand the tg pattern is appealing, but just surprised at the lack of discussion on his beyers. We typically see a winner who has run above a 95…Mage, Richstrike and Animal Kingdom in recent years being the exceptions.
Amusing why people put so much stock into Beyer figures. They only account for final time and distance.
The esteemed Andy Beyer has picked only 3 KD winners from the past 20 editions using his “magic formula”. Very impressive 15% hit rate.
Good question Russ. Beyers are of little importance in my selections.
Ditto…………….Mike
Deacon, thanks.
Mystik Dan, Medina Spirit, and Nyquist can also be added to your list of winners in recent years below 96.
Journalism arrived at CD today. Bloodhorse showed him walking off his travel van. He looks absolutely stunning and ready to roll. IMO , if he gets even a fairly clean trip, he’s gonna win.
On the grounds at the Downs! Yes, he looks great. Looking forward to seeing him on the track.
He is all business every time I see him.
“Postman worked in 48, goin’ to the races, goin’ to the races!” I am old enough to remember it Steve!
Hi Steve
Over the past several weeks, Journalism and Sovereignty have shared the #1 ranking, which is understandable. Pending the post-position draw, will we see a separation, relative to their respective rankings, in your final Derby rankings, next week?
Please understand that I’m not trying to put you on the spot, but I’m just curious as to which colt you prefer, at this late juncture of the Derby trail.
I’ve been back and forth on these two colts, but as it stands now, I’m leaning on Journalism as the likely winner of the 2025 Derby. His speed figures are considerably higher than Sovereignty, and his stamina influence was on full display in the Santa Anita Derby, IMO. In addition, I prefer colts from the Mr. Prospector sire line, vs the Northern Dancer sire line. Sovereignty appears to have the stronger stamina influence on his dam side, but not by that much. Both colts are homebred, so that’s a wash.
BTW, there’s always a chance of rain on Derby Day, which could certainly have a major impact as to how the race plays out.
I anxiously await your final Derby Rankings, next week.
Thanks for all you do, Steve.
Sorry to say Bill the Derby Rankings are over. It really doesnt matter who is ranked where at this late date. Next week I’ll be evaluating the works and overall appearance of the horses and I’ll be writing something about some new Derby bets the on the following Thursday I’ll have my handicapping analysis.
Thanks for the reply, Steve.
I’ll be looking forward to your final thoughts and betting angles.
It’s been quite a journey down this year’s Derby trail, filled with a few positive surprises and a few disappoints along the way.
Good luck with your picks, Steve.
The longshot that I’m looking at…is Publisher—he looked good working with Tiztastic—he has Irad, and perhaps best of all—Publisher is the “no pressure horse”—a maiden who has been walking out of the gate….Irad is supremely talented, plus he won’t be saddled with pressure, on a maiden due for a little racing luck—and he looked good on that work….
I’m not tossing that one from the vertical gimmicks but have a hard time pinning on top. The Ark Derby got one of the worst sheets scores of all the preps. The horse seems to be improving with the class jump in each start but would need a monster jump in the Derby to knock out the top contenders. He’s also turning into a wise guy pick lately so he may go off as an underlay meaning you will not get the deserving price for a maiden. I think I put him underneath Journalism as one of my future wager goofball bets and certainly won’t complain if that works out.
I agree Justin…the Ark Derby was a pace collapse…my top three are Journalism, Sovereignty, Rodriguez…underneath are Tappan Street, Sandman, Publisher…Luxor Cafe may be good enough to contend—I do not think another Forever Young will be in this Derby! But Japan is knocking on the door!..
I agree with everything you said, Matthew. I’ll write down my thoughts when I get them all together, but I’m leaning toward Publisher, too, especially if Baeza doesn’t run.
Nice call Matthew, I’m with you. Noted my reasons above.
Admire Daytona is the best LS
As a novice, I am curious how other people use Steve’s top 12 to bet on trifectas and superfectas.??
A couple of weeks ago in The Gr1 Jenny Wiley a foul was claimed….last year inThe Kentucky Derby Sierra Leone bumped with Forever You g three times…..Maximum Security was dq’d, after a claim by a horse that was uninvolved…..what those three have in common is they all happened in Kentucky and all three had no stewards review…..forget inquiry—not even a review….
Matthew, your recollection is faulty. Two jockeys lodged objections against Saez and MS for interfering with their horses, directly or indirectly. There was no steward’s inquiry, but there didn’t need to be one. The stewards took over 20 minutes to review the running of the race, and they made the decision to disqualify MS.
If i recall, and i may be biased because i thought it was the wrong call, the initial objection was lodged by John Court, who finished far back, while Tyler Gafflione on War of Will did not object. I found it a small, sour grapes objection by Court and a classy move by Tyler., who was most impacted in the incident. The best horse finished first. Of course, subsequent revelations concerning the trainer were unknown at the time.
Todd, I made no comment on the merits of the steward’s decision. The post was intended to offer the facts surrounding the objection and review process. Please reread Matthew’s post and my reply. Thanks.
Sorry. I will endeavor to specifically refer to your points should i engage in a discussion in which you are involved. Which i am unlikely to do.
Todd, although we haven’t always agreed, enjoy your astute comments.
Probably for the best.
So the best horse did not really finish first, now that we know HOW his trainer found “success”. Talk about sour grapes?
Interesting.
Jon Court on Long Range Toddy and Flavien Prat on Country House protested.
My point being—Kentucky stewards …in three major races—were asleep at the wheel, they should have immediately called for a review—in my opinion an inquiry…..initially I was against the Max coming down decision—but he did cause a chain reaction, and was running on a mysters drug—plus the hirse he greatly impeded came right back and won The Preakness—but Max did mess up the race, fault or no fault the other horses stayed in their lanes…
IMO that DQ on Maximum Security was a mockery of a travesty of a sham………….
Deacon, I agree with you.
It was the right thing…surelt you’re kidding!
Agreed Deacon.
No: it was an egregious foul, and Saez admitted as much as soon as a microphone was shoved in his face.
Agreed Forte.
Agree Deacon it should have never happened !!!
Deacon–That was a disgrace. And given that his trainer was giving him illegal drugs he would have been disqualified eventually.
I saw Maximum Security run in the Florida Derby, I was amazed.
By the way, I am especially pleased that Smarty Jones is in Hall of Fame and am pleased for his people especially John Servis. What his brother did really messed up horse racing and his own reputation.
Matthew, with hand on the bible, I can honestly say some of the decisions, or lack of decisions, by stewards in numerous major races in various racetracks around the USA have been appalling. Shocking in fact.
I like the French stewards they are deadly 99.9% of the time on any infractions whether the runner is owned by a prince or a pauper- you stray, you pay. They all know where they stand owner, trainer, jockey, punter.
Hi Davids—I indrtstand Aussie rules …of your horse gets impeded and runs out of the top four—they don’t take the horse down, I understand that and yet I don’t quite agree….most of the time the winni g horse–even if they impeded another—is best—bit if they cause a horse to lose a placing they should come down….the one thing I so not like—is the phone that jockeys talk to stewards with—DON’T TALK WITH THEM! Stewards should watch the replay–including DRONE SHOT (no reason to not employ drones)—make the decision based on what you see, not what someone SAYS….
I agree, Matthew, the stewards have a rule book to guide them. The stewards don’t need jockeys persuading them they did no wrong or, conversely, should be given a better position at the end of a race because a jockey says so.
I’ve always felt adding another voice or two into a decision results in a mini soap opera. Perhaps that was the intent, ol’ school racing needed more drama to spice up the sport in the new modern era.
Davids, to this day one of the most controversial calls was the 2014 Breeders Cup Classic held at Santa Anita.
Out of the gate Bayern made a sharp left nearly knocking Shared Belief to his knees who in turn hit Moreno from which he (Moreno) never recovered. Toast of New York bumped into both Shared Belief and Moreno.
The stewards said something to the effect that per the CHRB Rule Book they were being asked to make a subjective decision as to whether or not the outcome of the race was affected.
Bayern won the race by a nose followed by TONY by a neck over Chrome. Shared Belief battled hard to get up for fourth.
The start of that race had Bayern looking like a bowling ball knocking down bowling pins as Martin Garcia tried to jockey him into position.
Yes, Lynda, that is the race, par excellence, of an appalling steward lack of decision. How one horse can knock so many other horse out of a race and not disqualified is beyond my understanding.
Just unbelievable!! You would expect that kind of rough riding in a picnic in mid NSW, say the Dubbo Gold Cup.
It just looked, crooked, but that’s all I’ll say. Shameful result.
Just the second time a Baffert horse had interfered with Shared Belief in two races, too.
Add the Justify scandal, & it all adds up to Baffert having an unfair advantage in CA races.
Last year I liked?ystik Dan….I wasn’t fully on board, till Steve posted his Thorograph number, for his Arkansas Derby—O had a lucky hit, everything fell into play—squeezed thru a small seam PLUS the two best that day had bumping difficulties….Steve is one I always read—some posters too….I take into consideration certain posters—I really think Journalism and Sovereignty are solid—people I respect think similar—those two plus Rodriguez, ate who I like themost—Rodriguez is the outlier—I think there’s more, more from this colt….
Superfecta $1.00……1,2 w1,2,3,4 w1,2,3,4,5,6 w1-10.
$168.00. Good luck
Tom Jones
Thanks for posting your Superfecta configuration, which covers ten horses.
I’ll be keying my top two colts, Journalism and Sovereignty in the first and second slots. I will add two more in the second slot (yet to be determined), six in the third slot (yet to be determined and ten in the 4th slot (yet to be determined).
Additionally, I’ll take a shot at the Super Hi-5. I’ll key Journalism and Sovereignty in the first two slots, with four underneath in the 3rd, 4th and 5th slots.
That is: 1,2/ 1,2/ 3,4,5,6/ 3,4,5,6/ 3,4,5,6.
Tom Jones, the singer?
Tom, Thank You for sharing that information. I will make a pot of coffee and try to understand it but i really do appreciate you sharing it.
Steve I look forward every week to read your articles and you never disappoint. Fascinating read as always, thanks for all you do for the sport.
Thank you very much Rich. I really appreciate it.
yes im a horse player…..going against the fav…..you somehow think favs always win…the favs are usually the best horse off their last race. yet they lose 66 % of the time….why? why do 2 yr old champs hardley ever win? because they are not good enough? yes, i know Journalism ran the best.. ….i like the horse that hasnt peaked…..this is why im a pro……
Twinspires.com just posted their odds about 8 minutes ago for the KD….
Journalism 3-1
Sovereignty 9/2
Sandman 5-1
Rodriguez 6-1
Burnham Square 8-1
Luxor Cafe 10-1
Tappan Street 10-1
Tiztastic 15-1
East Avenue 15-1
All others 20-1 or much, much higher
John:
Thanks for posting: Definitely not a 100% line as the above horses at stated odds totals 115.4% chance to win! Except for Journalism, they all seem a bit low…looking forward to Saturday and post position draw and ml odds…
Is that a pre-ML from Battaglia? I’d be surprised if we see four runners go off at 6-1 and lower. Since betting entries were eliminated after 2000, there have been just three fields with that many 6-1 and unders: 2004, 2017, and 2019. In all three years there was no solid favorite like Journalism.
Tony D, from what I gather Twinspires.com is a betting site that offers online wagering early on the KD, and according to websites it is owned and operated by CDI (Churchill Downs Incorporated).
Yes, of course. Battaglia has been doing the ML since Nixon was president. He was the CD race caller for a long time, too. Four days until entries and PP draw, I see it like this: Journalism 3-1, Sovereignty 5-1, Luxor Cafe and Tappan Street 7-1, Burnham Square and Sandman 10-1.
No more than three horses will be under 10/1.
Gentlemen’s bet IS ON!
Sandman won’t be that long. Lots of hype and Metallica…
Of course, to most that is common knowledge, but the newbies wouldn’t know.
Agreed.
No offense, but I don’t think that those odds can be correct in a 20-horse field.
We will find out on Saturday night.
Burnham Square ….I would LUV to see do it. It would at least be something good in this past year. If not him…Coal Battle. Two feel good winners.
Funniest horse-racing movie ever: “A Day at the Races.” Provides a valuable lesson in picking winners.
If you havent seen it, “It Aint Hay” starring Abbott and Costello. Great racing skits and an awesome shot of Broadway in Saratoga and the old Grand Union Hotel or United States Hotel
Thanks, Steve! This is another the kid and I need to watch together. We got most of our movies on VHS from our Library growing up, and I know I’ve seen “It Ain’t Hay” before, but I wouldn’t have noticed those landmarks.
Thanks, Steve. I’m sure I saw that 50 or 60 years ago! I’ll look for it now. Is the Adelphi still there? Haven’t been to the Spa since the mid-’90s.
Yes, its still there. Had a face lift a few years ago,
Glad to know it’s still there. Quite a step back in time.
My favorite Horse Race movie is The Sundowners, they only had the one big race at the end—but what a great movie—and of course Let It Ride—“You have a Panamanian jockey, on a horse with a large a$$—ya got yourself a winner!”…
Yes Matthew, “The Sundowners” is a beautiful film, Fred Zinnemann a favorite director of mine. “The Sundowners” was one of my father’s favorite films as well.
“I’m getting a nice tootsy-fruitsying right now!”
Seconded, Tony D. This has been a favorite since I was a child. And it was nominated for an Academy Award!
Really? It was nominated for an Oscar? Wow!
It was, and was the only Marx Bros. movie to ever be nominated. There was a short-lived award for best dance direction (3 years), and A Day at the Races was nominated in that category for the “All God’s Chillin got Rhythm” sequence. There’s some absolutely amazing singing and dancing in it! Wish I could swing like that!
I remember that sequence!
I see. So who are you high on, since your whole diatribe was about who wouldn’t win?
What is your obsession with Counter Point?
Listed below are the times recorded for the final 3F of the 9F preps. The times for the Japanese based likely entrants are projected.
Final Gambit ——– 36.21
Flying Mohawk ——37.22
Lexor Cafe ———– 36.51 (Projected)
Rodriguez ———– 36.90
Grande ————— 37.24
Tappan Street —— 37.06
Sovereignty ———- 37.12
Journalism———– 37.59
Baeza ——————38.15
American Promise – 38.02
Render Judgment– 39.63
Tiztastic ————— 38.43
Chunk Of Gold ——-39.10
Admire Daytona —- 38.61 (Projected)
Burnham Square — 38.77
East Avenue ———- 39.38
Sandman ————- 38.80
Publisher ————–38.93
It’s not surprising that Final Gambit’s explosion in the latter phase of the Jeff Ruby resulted in the leading final 3F split. Given the colt was stropped in its tracks after the break and had to be piloted 7W for his stretch run. The 36.21, if adjusted for those pertinent factors would be faster.
Given the above. Shouldn’t Final Gambit be the ML favorite?
Admire Daytona’s time should be adjusted for the configuration of the 9 1/2 circuit of the Mayden oval. The turns are unending and gives the impression the race is comprised of 3turns.
What can be extrapolated the above figured? The 2025 KD will likely be won by an entrant forwardly placed with the requisite stamina to cover 10F in 2:02 plus. In the absence of such an entrant the race will be decided by late runners. Final Gambit and Sovereignty are the best from that category. Their dams were sired by A P Indy line stallions.
As previously highlighted the A P Indy broodmare line is associated with the winner of the BCC, Saudi Cup and Dubai WC. A win in the KD is pending for the completion of a superfecta of wins in the world’s major dirt races.
Yes! Final Gambit should be the ML favorite. I’m assuming you mean the favorite derby horse of my massage therapist, Mary Lynn.
Final Gambit will not be the MLF. But I like his chances!
Next question?
Who shot JR?
Google is your friend!
Bingo!
Final Gambit’s fast final 3-furlongs were accomplished over a synthetic track. Which could be considered even more impressive. But who knows how he will do on the dirt at Churchill Downs?
Probably nobody. Anyway, Derby winners usually had a final 3f in 37.0 or slower in their final prep.
Steve, you forever amaze everyone who read your work. There is nothing better than reading how young racehorses develop into major athletes.
Even if none of the above colts figure in the final of the Kentucky Derby I know you’ll have a similar storyline on whoever wins. Your dedication to your craft is simply phenomenal, and, your work is even better now than ever before.
The storyline to the film “Kentucky” is a little more complex than the ‘daughter wins back the farm’ but that is true of the Golden Age of Hollywood compared to contemporary film.
Fortunately, in US horse racing, we still have your writing to appreciate an in depth story behind the development of a racehorse, not just speed figures to dictate who is the best colt on the first Saturday in May. Thanks, Steve.
I really appreciate that David. Thank you so much. Btw is the “s” actually part of your first name or the initial of your last name?
Steve, the ‘S’ is the first letter of my last name. I was in a class at school where there were 7 Davids in the class so the teacher would call – David- A, David – K etc with David – S it was just easier for him and classmates to scream, Davids rather than David- S.
Also if one of these horses win I blew my recap story. Lol
lol, I never thought of that. I’m sure you’ll manage no matter what circumstance. For your recap story, I would love Coal Battle to win the Derby. I get a little weepy just thinking of that result.
lol, Steve, I replied to you but the comment is awaiting moderation. I’m guessing l@ve is a naughty word now.
so ive seen coldcuts post for about 20 years……..ive never seen him have a horse in the top 3……in 20 years……..post if im wrong…..post it…………but he posts like he knows something……..its very very hard to not get a horse in the top 3 that long………
Off topic
As i said before…..journalism has ran the best , and i think hes best animal…..whos the best horse that hasnt FIRED? this is what you want…..the answer? SOVERIGNTY…..
going to go on him……..
Hey vet!
Obsequious much?
Control freak much?
Stop that NOW! And go to your ROOM!
Looks like you have an admirer, Mike.
Forte, some have too much time on their hands. We’ll see how it plays out.
Idle hands are the devil’s playground
What is your obsession with Mike?
That’s a very personal (and leading) question coming from someone who’s new to the comment section. Or aren’t you? 😮
To quote someone very similar to you, I have been reading Steve’s blog for years. But thanks for the warm welcome, Tony. HRN had a poster named Tony – any relation to you?
Can you say busted?
Plot twist.
Journalism ran best. Best animal. Duh! Sovereignty hasn’t “fired”? Say what?
i once was going to claim a cheap horse …..the horse came out with new equipment a blinker with a cup on one eye…front tape bulging on one leg….wow he lost an eye and bowed a tendon?….you must put in claim15 mins before race….my trainer laughed and said they were playing games…..they got to the paddock where they walked him around taking off wrap with bulge, the paddock judge had them take off one eyed blinker….lol….surprisingly the horse ran disappointing 4th …they really didnt want to lose it for all they did…..to cap it off we lost the shake to the trainers friend, who put in a “safety” claim….so they only lost it on paper……….funny game
The vet. Veterinarian or war veteran?
Hi Steve,
Great story! Looking forward to next week.
Best,
Hammer
David, I was unable to reply below..
Yes, I love the Tudors…I’m going to go to Hampton Court Palace either before I go up North, or before I leave home
Hever Castle has such a fascinating history. It’s restored and added to by William Astor – it really is stunning
Rank won’t be getting a break, that’s the thing – especially off this race. I’m shocked T Doug’s handling of him
I haven’t…honestly, without a horse to root for, I’m not overly invested in the race to that degree.
It’s been going great – except I’m pissed oh at my lousy dentist. I had 3 crowns put in literally the day before I left, and one of them chipped that night – when I ate mashed potatoes & roast chicken for dinner. So the crown itself was weak. I couldn’t do anything about it since I was leaving the next night, so I had up move on. Now that same crown is loose, and I’m going to have to see a dentist because I don’t want the crown to fall out. When I get home, my dentist is going to hear from me, lol
Well, I hope to get reservations for Notre Dame when I get to Paris, but that’s the only one, except for York Minster; I already visited Westminste
Betsy, when you go to Hampton Court make sure you see the “The Story of Abraham Tapestries” even if they don’t interest you a great deal. ‘They’ are the most expensive pieces of art in the world as they are priceless – no one has the knowledge to replicate these tapestries, the craftsmanship has been lost in time.
When they light the tapestries from behind you are awe struck!!
Betsy, O’Neill isn’t doing anything wrong. Rank is posting easy works and his races are almost all every 4 weeks spacing. It’s not Doug’s fault if Calumet doesn’t want to give the horse a break. Keyboard trainers like you should try to let the pros make the decisions, since your only acquaintance with the real horse is through a screen.
Too bad your trip to Europe doesn’t include a visit to Royal Ascot. It’s wonderful!
Thank you Steve
The behind the horse stories , Always a fantastic way to get to know the horses better.
I love reading about horses’ early training and how they begin to reveal their talent. Thanks, Steve! I also got a kick out of the line “every year you’re still a kid opening your Wonka bar hoping to see that golden ticket.”
Absolutely Brilliant, Thank You and God Bless
What a great story Steve, I so enjoyed this read. I remember the movie Kentucky,
I watched it with my dad the first time in 1958, if my memory is working. My dad always had a crush on Loretta Young. Walter Brennan was a great & versatle actor.
I really liked him in Rio Bravo & The Westerner with Gary Cooper.
For me personally, I want Bill Mott to win a Derby. He seems like such a nice guy & I know he is deserving.
I am rooting for Sovereignty but I will include him in several exotics.
Of course with Journalism. Sandman, East Avenue & Rodriguez. Heck, its the Derby I might as well go all in. I believe that this is a real good year for 3 year olds.
Thank you for all of your brilliant writing this season. Every year ytou top yourself.
Admire Daytona is worthy of inclusion.
Thank you Deacon. Hard to believe Walter Brennan was around 38 when he did that movie.
Some folks are old before their time – Walter Brennan, or forever young, like America’s oldest teenager Dick Clark. And of course with that sentence, I just revealed my age as older than dirt.
Just woke up to read that the brilliant Tiz the Law filly Non Compliant has suffered a fatal breakdown. I had been waiting for her return with high anticipation. Another sad day of racing.
This is terrible news. The article I read said she broke down at Los Alamitos Race Course. I wonder why she was training there instead of Santa Anita? I too was looking forward to her comeback.
Condolences to the connections
Yes, Downthestretch, why not Santa Anita? The Tiz the Laws have been getting a good reputation for soundness as well. Just awful.
Bob tends to work his horses at Los Al for a bit until it’s time for them to get more serious in their works
Hi Betsy, how is the holiday going? Have you been studying the fields for the 1,000 and 2,Guineas? I’ve been watching the UK weather pattern, it’s starting to warm up. Have fun.
Hey David!
It’s going great, thanks!
Sadly, no – I haven’t had the time. I returned from Bath on Friday, and spent the day at Hever Castle yesterday.
The only racing I’ve really focused on is Rank falling to 0-11, lol. I would have given him a break long before now, but he definitely won’t be getting one since he ran pretty well this time. Still, something needs to change because as is, he’s never going to sim one of these races,
If I’m Doug, I shorten him up to 7F – he’s not a router, & he has a lot more speed than he did as a baby.
Hever Castle is beautifully maintained no doubt you are interested in the history of the Tudors.
Are you watching the Kentucky Derby and Oaks Morning Works Show on YouTube?
Yes, agree, Rank needs a break he’s going from pillar to post.
Your holiday trip is sounding wonderful are you going to visit the Cathedrals?
My thoughts are with her.
Hi Steve
Another great backstory, one of your best ever. Your mention of the movie “Kentucky” brought back memories of Lorreta Young, who played the part of Sally Goodwin.
She had a child out of wedlock, by Clark Gable, and went into seclusion for quite some time. Later in life she became a devout Catholic and attended St. Victor’s Catholic Church in West Hollywood, the same church that my sister and I attended. We saw her on several Sunday’s, always wearing black, with a black vail covering her face.
No one would approach her, always giving her space to come and go as she pleased.
A fine lady, and great actress, IMO.
RIP, Pope Francis.
edit: Loretta Young
Bill,
Have you seen Admire Daytona at CD in the Morning Workout Show? There is something about that colt has me thinking about a likely longshot winner.
CP
With respect to the Japanese colts, I prefer Luxor Cafe over Admire Daytona.
I have four under 10-1—Journalism, Sovereignty, Tappan Street, Rodriguez—if he gets in I expect Baeza will be a fifth….a lot of 10-1 thru 15-1 shots this year….
Baeza—not yet in—would be close to/ if not—3rd choice….
Do not ignore the Japanese invaders.
I’ll put Luxor in my tri box….not the other one…
Talk about holding a grudge.
Step right up and claim your prize!
BOOM!
Matthew, if the four you mention are all under 10/1 (which they won’t be), than no other horse in the rest of the field will be under 20/1. Not my opinion, it’s the math.
Mr. Haskin, your work as always- routinely brilliant.
East Avenue sets the pace and hangs on for third while Journalism gets caught at the wire by Sovereignty.
Book it!
Steve,
Thanks for this article as it a nice prelude and segue to the Kentucky Derby.
Have a wonderful week.
I thought Publisher looked good in his work with Tiztastic….
I did as well. APharoah12 on YouTube had a great video of the two yesterday.
If Baeza draws in…with Prat—he’ll get pounded, at the windows–buyer beware! (Beyer beware)….John got him to run a peap performance, in SA Derby—bounce factor is in play!….
Pope Francis just died. Condolences to my Catholic friends.
I loved this piece, Steve. It’s fascinating to learn that Journalism, Sovereignty and East Avenue all showed promise from the beginning. Interesting, too, that Meda Murphy never timed the horses in their works or let them off the bridle — just watched and observed. Under her expert hands, the cream indeed rose to the top.
I’ll have to look for that movie. I’m sure it’ll be easy to find since it’s Derby season.
Ms Blacktype, in case you may be interested the filming location for “Kentucky” was the historic Castleton Farm now known as Castleton Lyons.
Apple TV, – $3.99 to rent or Amazon video -$3.79 to rent or both $9.99 to buy. Treat yourself, you’ll adore the film.
Steve, you had me…. “In 1938”. These are the back stories that give TB racing fans hope that this sport is worth following regardless if you’re in it as a betting fan, or just enjoy watching these majestic creature compete at every level of the sport.
Thank you! great way to start the week.
Thank you, Steve! This is such a nice breather from trying to pin down this group of horses.
I really appreciate the credit you give to Joan “Meda” Murphy, and the look inside her operation and philosophy. There are so many people behind the scenes whose fingerprints are on The Derby (and horse racing every day). Many never receive the credit they deserve, and that’s the way they happily operate, chopping wood and carrying water. I hope there are young people who can take inspiration from Meda Murphy and her success. You CAN make something that inspires you into a successful career.
I have never seen “Kentucky.” It’s obviously one my daughter and I should watch! If we make a movie of the 2025 Road to the Derby, we may need Cecil B. de Mille to direct from beyond the grave! Who else could handle the ensemble cast and 20+ storylines?
At least we have the right man for the screenplay: YOU!!
Funny you mention Cecil B. De Mille… I just watched the Ten Commandments this past Good Friday !!! Now all we need is for Steve to climb the mountain and comedown with the answers !!! (LOL) If anybody sees Steve with really white hair and a couple of tablets we know something is up.
Fantastic! Steve, Mede. Two of the best. Thanks Steve.
Oops Meda.
Wow! Great story. Hope they are fighting for the lead coming down to the wire.
That’s a really cool story. Thanks!
Thanks for a wonderful background story about three special horses and their
breeding, upbringing, and trainers: Journalism, Sovereignty, and East Avenue.
And no one else has reported about Joan Murphy and her horsemanship and knowledge in raising and developing them as young horses.
Changing the subject, the late pope, Pope Francis, was a fan of Bayakoa who was bred in Argentina. May his spirit rest in peace and watch over the horses and riders.
Thank you Terri for sharing that Pope Francis was a fan of Bayaoka.
Was indeed a shock to read early this morning that he had passed away.
Today is also Queen Elizabeth’s birthday.
I think a comparison can be made that both the Queen and the Pope remained loyal and committed to their call to service service to the end even while dealing with serious illness.
Watching the Pope ride through the crowd of people in St Peter’s Square in the Popemobile brought tears. He looked so frail yet so strong.
Such amazing strength they both must have had.
Condolences to all my Catholic friends.
Thank you. His last day on earth was Easter, and now he’s celebrating in Heaven. He would appreciate God’s timing.
You are welcome Lynda King. Thanks for informing us of the late Queen’s birthday. She was a great horsewoman and knew when a horse’s gait was off better than other professionals. She’s a huge loss to the Sport of Queens and Kings.
They were both amazing individuals. The Pope willed himself to live for his last Easter Service.
P.S. I hope that all of the Queens in horse racing, human and equine, are honored by using the term of Sport of Queens and Kings.
Terri, I too think Pope Francis willed himself to live through Easter.
It is as if he was thinking my work here on Earth is done and I am ready.
The power of the mind and the heart over the body is an amazing thing that medical science cannot begin to understand or explain.
Very touching scene during the ride through the crowd when he gently touched the cheek of the baby.
Queen Elizabeth was determined to fulfill her final duty to speak with the outgoing PM and with the incoming PM.
In his autobiography former PM Boris Johnson said the Queen had a stroke early that day she passed.
Terri, now that’s something I never would have guessed. I wonder if he went to the tracks to watch her run in person.
Davids–I wouldn’t know if that’s the case.
It reminds me of the school bus filled with nuns who were Smarty Jones fan and followed him to the Triple Crown races.
Terri I remember the Nuns following Smarty!!
Interesting early development stories.
East Avenue- Leader
Journalism – Mid Pack
Sovereignty – Deep closer
Of the 3 East Avenue will be up front. Journalism is likely to make the first move to reel in Est Avenue, but both will have to hold off Sovereignty. It has the making of a trifecta.
On the subject of trifecta. The same development fam possible trifecta will be competing against several others with some kind of linkage.
TC Winning Sires –
Justify – American Promise
American Pharaoh – Publisher
American Pharaoh – Lexor Cafe
AP Indy Dam Line –
Sovereignty
Final Gambit
Tiztastic
American promise
Unraced Dams –
Sovereignty
East Avenue
Citizen bull
Into Mischief Progenies
Sovereignty
Citizen Bull
Tappan Street
The 2025 KD promises to be intriguing
To date, Journalism has been more of a stalker, while Sovereignty has been more of a midpack horse.
A. P. Indy Sire Line:
Sandman
Tiztastic
Coal Battle
Final Gambit
No, forte, Final Gambit was sired by Not This Time, the dam is by Tapit though.
Yes, it is always about the horse. Easy to forget when racing is so intertwined with technology and all the wagering opportunities. I still remember horses from my early days in racing, but have trouble recalling the winners of the previous year’s major races.
Good Journalism Steve!
Clever pun.
Very nice. I enjoyed reading that.
I will buy a trifecta box with those 3 horses for sure. Maybe an exacta box too.
“a surprising new way to bet the Derby”- There’s a cliffhanger at the end of the story.
Didn’t Churchill Downs offer odd & even betting for a short time? It died out pretty quickly.
Speaking of horseracing related movies, I’ve always thought that the life and death of Ron Hansen would make for a pretty good film. Ron Hansen was the Northern California jockey that either fell off a bridge or was thrown off of a bridge. Rumors of race fixing followed. The Volponi Breeders Cup Pick-6 betting scandal could also make for a decent movie. There are probably a zillion stories around the track that would make great movies.
I’ve got a related story ….an accomplished Vay Area trainer–I met at an Albany Oregon bowling g alley that offered off track betting….this was during Hansen’s absence, and the trainer—who was pretty messed up…told me a story—he said Ron was dead—and this was before they found his body….I had a strong feeling the trainer (whose name escapes me) was on the run—he told me of a large group of horsemen who were throwing races, he said mud level tracks are where the cheating occurs, not the top level…tracks that have big enough handles, but small incomes, for the trainers… he named names—showed ne his trainers license, so I knew it was him….he was betting $200 per race and losing….drinking…and I thought he was on some kind of stimulant—he was involved in the same thing Hansen was cuz he knew so much….the next day he asked me for a ride and I didn’t feel good about it so I passed—his gal pal was scared of him and so was I….
His name escapes you?!?!?
I hate to inform you that cheating happens everywhere.
I’ll bet you can’t prove that.
Race fixing and cocaine….
Matthew, interesting story.
But he is incorrect about where cheating happens – it occurs everywhere
Agreed regarding cheating is everywhere.
I am a Bay Area race fan who watched Ron Hansen win so many races as he came closing down the stretch to win right at the wire. I often wondered how legit many of those wins were. I remember the day they found his body washed up on the shore on the Hayward side of the San Mateo- Hayward bridge. It occurred during one of the scheduled Bay Meadows racing periods. The local paper mentioned witnesses seeing a Cadilac stopped on the bridge and two men throwing something off the bridge. Because someone in my family was friends with the owners of the track at the time, I had little doubt that the track was questionably honest.
I recall Santa Anita rolling out a roulette type wager around 8 years ago where the expected chalk was part of red the next part of black and the bombers were green. It must not have worked out. Heard nothing about it in years.
After more than 20 years we just lost a Saturday morning horse racing radio show broadcasted in the LA area from 8-9AM due to the fact SA no longer is gonna be a sponsor. To me, it’s clear and obvious they, 1st Racing, want no part of the horse racing industry. Failing to market your own product is a red line.
A great story. In a year when I’m looking at longshots, it almost makes me want to cheer for the favorites. Almost.
A wonderful read, thank you so much!
What an awesome surprise for a Sunday evening! I really appreciate the various back-stories you so eloquently provide: it really enhances the overall Derby trail experience! Thank you!