2025 Kentucky Derby Rankings – Week 1
As you will see I wrote fairly lengthy comments in Week 1 to provide as much information as possible in order to give a comprehensive overview of each horse. In future weeks, comments will be shorter, especially on previously ranked horses to avoid being too repetitious. The reader can always refer back to Week 1 to rehash stories, statistics, fun facts, and background about the original top ranked horses, which obviously will change most weeks. The object is to keep it fresh over 13 weeks. Here we go…! ~ Steve Haskin
Derby Rankings: January 27, 2025 – Week 1
By Steve Haskin
1—East Avenue (Brendon Walsh, Medaglia d‘Oro – Dance Music, by Ghostzapper)
The Breeders’ Cup fiasco does not diminish the visual impact this colt made, not only in his electrifying performances and his flawless mechanics, but just watching him warm up before a race with a regal bearing that makes it hard to take your eyes off him. It takes a special horse to come off a maiden romp going six furlongs and demolish his opponents in a Grade 1 race going 1 1/16 miles. There is no reason to back off your enthusiasm for him because of a disastrous stumble breaking from post 1 at Del Mar and never really being asked to run. He is working up a storm at Fair Grounds, with a bullet five furlong drill in :59 2/5, fastest of 44 works at the distance, for his debut in the Risen Star Stakes. Before his throw-out Thoro-Graph number in the Juvenile, his figures were just what you want to see with a “6” and then a “3” in his two-turn debut. His pedigree is a Who’s Who of horses who had exceptional speed combined with 1 ¼-mile and 1 ½-mile stamina. So if this colt has any flaws in any department I have yet to find them.
2—Sovereignty (Bill Mott, Into Mischief – Crowned, by Bernardini)
Yes, it is a Godolphin one-two punch to start off the year, and he and East Avenue were two of the 27 Godolphin horses broken and trained by Joan Murphy at Bridlewood Farm in Ocala.. And both were the top two colts in her “A” group. I like the way he has progressed in each of his first three starts. The normally conservative Mott thought so highly of him after two losing, but promising, learning experiences sprinting and was so anxious to try him around two turns he ran him next in the Grade 3 Street Sense Stakes at 1 1/16 miles at Churchill Downs even though he was still a maiden. The improvement was dramatic as he went from 9th to first from the quarter pole to the eighth pole, inhaling the field with one powerful move under a hand ride before drawing off to a five-length victory geared down, while coming home in :24 flat and :06 1/5 for the final sixteenth. This is another colt who does everything right regarding his lead changes, keeping a straight course, and striding out smoothly down the stretch. He also has a pedigree to run all day and his Thoro-Graph pattern is solid enough, going from a 9 ½ to a 6 to a 5 ¾, giving him a strong launching pad for this year. He has just begun working at Payson Park and his schedule has yet to be determined.
3—Journalism (Mike McCarthy, Curlin – Mopotism, by Uncle Mo)
What makes this Derby trail extraordinary so far is that Journalism, East Avenue, and Sovereignty all got their early training from Joan Murphy at Bridlewood Farm. The only difference is that Bridlewood is co-owner of this colt. Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners paid $825,000 for him as a yearling and Bridlewood bought in based on Murphy’s high ranking. And this is someone who broke and trained Horses of the Year Gun Runner and Cody’s Wish. It is extraordinary to have the top three ranked colts all come off the same farm. As impressive as he looked in his 2 ½-length maiden victory going a mile at Del Mar, he still had some rough edges to smooth out, as he did in his first start, mainly with his lead changes. He did finally change in midstretch after being hit once left-handed and did it smoothly. Murphy said he was a bit immature but “smart as a whip with class oozing out of him” and she expected big improvement in his next start and boy was she right. He did everything with complete perfection and professionalism in the Los Alamitos Futurity, and you couldn’t ask for a smoother lead change turning for home or for him to run straighter down the stretch as he blew away three Bob Baffert horses, including Del Mar Futurity winner and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile runner-up Gaming and American Pharoah runner-up Getaway Car. He has a fluid long stride and gets stronger the farther he goes with a big gallop-out. Although he has yet to crack an 87 Beyer, his Brisnet figures have jumped from an 84 to 95 to 99 and he has back-to-back strong late pace figures of 101 and 104. His Thoro-Graph numbers of “12, 7 ¾, and 5 ½” give him a lot of room for improvement. He had his first breeze since missing time with an illness, going a half in :49 4/5 in preparation for the San Felipe.
4—Citizen Bull (Bob Baffert, Into Mischief – No Joke, by Distorted Humor)
Even with all of Baffert’s brilliant maiden sprint winners, the champ is still his main Derby hope. The question with him is how far can he carry his speed? From a history standpoint, of Baffert’s five previous Juvenile winners, as well as his recent runner-up Cave Rock, only one, Game Winner, made it to the Derby. But Baffert has put a tremendous foundation under this colt and his Thoro-Graph pattern shows him making a big move in the Breeders’ Cup, going from a steady “6, 7, and 6” to a “2 ¾.” He has improved since stretching out to turns after getting beaten soundly by Gaming in the Del Mar Futurity. In both the American Pharoah and Juvenile he was loose on an uncontested lead through fractions of :47 and change and 1:12 and change, so we’ll see if he is confronted with a faster pace and a challenger in Saturday’s Robert Lewis Stakes and how he handles it. That race should give us a good idea what to expect from him moving forward. Baffert has nominated five to the Lewis, but plans on running only Citizen Bull and recent maiden winner Madaket Road. So until we see the 3-year-old version of Citizen Bull and how he responds if someone can test him we won’t know much more than we already do.
5—Ferocious (Gustavo Delgado, Flatter – Napier, by Midnight Lute)
I’m taking a big shot putting him this high a week before his 3-year-old debut in the Holy Bull Stakes, especially coming off three disappointing defeats. But I’m chalking that up to immaturity and believe he is going to show his real talents with the addition of blinkers. Javier Castellano has worked him three times and can see the difference. After his last three starts, many people no doubt find his record underwhelming following a sensational 7 ½-length romp in the slop in his career debut. But even though he was te beaten favorite in the Hopeful and Breeders’ Futurity his Thoro-Graph numbers of have never regressed, and here is why that fuse is still lit. The word is that this colt, who cost Derby winner Mage’s connections $1.3 million at the Ocala 2-year-old sale, has a lot more pure talent than Mage, but hasn’t quite figured it all out and has never “laid his belly down” and come back really tired from a race. Every jockey who has ridden him has said he needs blinkers, but Delgado, like the old-time trainers, doesn’t like to make that change with a 2-year-old during the season. You could see the need for them in the Breeders’ Cup when he ran like he was lost, dropping out of it as if he was going to finish last and then suddenly deciding to run in the stretch, going from 10th to 5th in the final furlong. His 111 Brisnet late pace figure was the fastest of any horse in the field. If blinkers, time off on the farm, and plain old maturity do the trick, who knows what we’re going to see if they do get to the bottom of this colt. His 46-1 odds in the latest Future Wager could be the overlay of the year. We’ll know soon enough.
6—Barnes (Bob Baffert, Into Mischief – All American Dream, by American Pharoah)
Well we know he cost $3.2 million as a yearling, he was named after Baffert’s longtime assistant Jimmy Barnes, and he is undefeated in two starts, having looked like a proverbial world beater in the seven-furlong San Vicente Stakes, defeating stablemate Romanesque and stakes winner Bullard in 1:22 flat, earning a “3” Thoro-Graph number. But what I find most fascinating about him is that he is the only horse I have ever seen who has four individual U.S. Triple Crown winners in his first five generations – American Pharoah, Secretariat, Seattle Slew, and Affirmed. And he has Secretariat in his pedigree four times. He also is the only horse I have seen who shipped all the way from California to Churchill Downs to make his career debut in a 5 1/2-furlong maiden race, in which he got bumped in tight quarters early, ducked out in the stretch after being hit twice left-handed, jumped to his left lead, drifted out late and still got up to win. The San Vicente was a totally different story as he was a powerhouse in the stretch crushing his field and doing it very professionally this time. So, as you can see there is a lot to digest with him. He’s a big muscular colt who packs a lot of weight with good length to his body. Is he a “beast,” as track announcer Frank Mirahmadi called him nearing the wire? We should find out in either the February 22 Rebel Stakes or in the San Felipe a week later.
7—First Resort (Eoin Harty, Uncle Mo – Fair Maiden, by Street Boss)
If he makes his 3-year-old debut in the John Battaglia at Turfway Park, which is his tentative target, he will have one of the most fascinating past performances of any Derby prospect in memory. So far, in his first four career starts he has run at four different distances at four different racetracks (in two countries) and was ridden by four different jockeys. And if he does debut in the Battaglia and performs well he will have run big on four different surfaces – a fast dirt track, a muddy dirt track, grass, and synthetic. His speed figures are not going to excite anyone just yet, but his Beyer, Brisnet, and Thoro-Graph numbers have never regressed so he is improving with every start and you have to like his Thoro-Graph pattern of “11 ½, 10 ½, 9, and 4 ½.” I also like the fact that in his second career start he finished second in the Saratoga Special to Showcase, who would have been my early Derby horse off his performance in that race. After then finishing a strong fourth, beaten three lengths, in his grass debut in the one-mile Summer Stakes at Woodbine, run in a scorching 1:32 4/5, he concluded the year by winning the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes by open lengths against the highly regarded Jonathan’s Way. So there is little not to like about him. It would be a great story to see Harty return to his glory days back in the earlier part of the century when he won such major races as the Travers, Dubai World Cup, and Santa Anita Derby. When Godolphin opened their first stable in the U.S. in 2000 and made their first major impact here by finishing first and second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies with Tempera and Imperial Gesture, it was Harty who trained them, as he did Street Sense. Now, 24 years later, he has a chance to give Godolphin its first Kentucky Derby victory even though they have two more highly regarded prospects.
8—Keep it Easy (Dale Romans, Hard Spun – Boxwood, by English Channel)
He hasn’t been farther than 6 ½ furlongs, but at 46-1 in the latest Future Wager I find him very live and believe he is crying out for longer distances. I feel we just may see a breakout performance in his first two-turn race, the March 1 Fountain of Youth Stakes. He first caught my eye in his second start going six-furlongs at Churchill l Downs. He was 23-1, with a horse named Sandman, who like him is co-owned by St. Elias Stable, the even-money favorite. They looked each other in the eye early until Keep it Easy blew the big favorite away under no urging, changed leads smoothly and drew off under a hand ride to win by four lengths in 1:09 4/5. Sandman, after his 11-length drubbing, went on to win two races, finish third to Sovereignty in the Street Sense, and then ran a sensational second in the Southwest Stakes after lurching badly at the start and dropping back to last. In Keep it Easy’s next start, the Saratoga Special, he was fortunate to escape in one piece after one of the scariest looking stumbles coming out of the gate I’ve ever seen, in which he broke and stumbled at an angle and actually bumped with the inside horse as he was going down, knocking that horse’s rider clear up off the saddle. I have no idea how Keep it Easy stayed on his feet, and his rider Martin Chuan just let him run around the track before easing him to the wire. He wound up wrenching his ankle in the race and was out almost four months, delaying his stretch-out to two turns, so Romans gave him one more sprint in the 6 ½-furlong Ed Brown Stakes at Churchill Downs and he looked awesome overpowering the favorite and quickly drawing off in 1:09 flat before cruising home to win by 5 ¼ lengths in a rapid 1:15 2/5. This colt is so professional and so proficient in everything he does, and Romans assures he will run all day, which his pedigree bears out. This could be a real sleeper.
9—Treaty of Rome (Chad Brown, Uncle Mo – Coin Broker, by Montjeu)
I don’t understand why this colt was not in the Future Wager field after his fast-closing neck defeat in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes to 6-5 favorite Guns Loaded, who was in the Future Wager field. This homebred colt, who broke his maiden going a flat mile at Aqueduct in 1:37 1/5 with a :24 3/5 closing quarter, was the “star of last year’s crop” of Coolmore 2-year-olds broken and trained by David Scanlon, whose star the year before was Sierra Leone. Both were Scanlon’s top physical specimens with “good bone and great walks.” Scanlon added that Treaty of Rome had more early speed and a more efficient way of moving. Coolmore’s Robyn Murray said he’s always been a classy colt who has moved forward with every race and will improve going two turns. But how does he fit as a top Derby contender? In the one-mile Mucho Macho Man, he settled in third while Guns Loaded strolled along on an uncontested lead and was able to open up on the turn and was still three lengths in front at the eighth pole. Treaty of Rome, changed leads beautifully at the top of the stretch and just kept coming, building up speed with every powerful stride and closing relentlessly on the leader. But he ran out of ground and had to settle for second, drawing almost four lengths clear of the third horse. I don’t know how strong this field was, but I like what I saw in his second straight one-turn mile following a maiden score in which he turned away several challenges and was game in the final furlong. His female family is inundated with class and stamina from the U.S. and Europe and his Thoro-Graph numbers jumped from a pair of “11’s” to a “6.” Who knows, maybe Coolmore is owed one this year.
10—Bullard (Mike McCarthy, Gun Runner – Reve d’Amour, by Warrior’s Reward)
Boy, has his stock plummeted, as his stablemate Journalism has leaped up near the top of everyone’s rankings. But be careful dumping once promising stocks too quickly. Most everyone was impressed with his strong stretch run to win the seven-furlong Bob Hope Stakes by nearly five lengths, but some felt the race set up for him with a scorching :43 4/5 half and were more impressed with Journalism’s victory earlier on the card. Then when he came up empty finishing a lackluster third behind Barnes in the seven-furlong San Vicente Stakes and failed to change leads there was a mass exit from his bandwagon. As a result, he closed at an outrageous 76-1 in the recent Future Wager. But no one is thinking old school and McCarthy trains old school. Most trainers would have run Bullard two turns in the Robert Lewis off the Bob Hope, but McCarthy said the heck with the points and sprinted him knowing he wasn’t fast enough to beat Barnes, especially in a five-horse field. Why waste a race, you ask? Because these are all preps and early points shouldn’t matter if you believe in your horse. McCarthy just felt this colt, although wanting two turns, needed another prep to keep him sharp before stretching him out in the San Felipe Stakes or Rebel. Yes he was beaten six lengths, but he still paired up his “5 ½” Thoro-Graph number in the Bob Hope. He is still highly regarded as a Derby contender by his connections, who have already won the Derby as partners, and I believe he should still be taken very seriously and could be the biggest oversight in this year’s Future Wager.
11—Aviator Gui (Chad Brown, Uncle Mo – Paulistinha, by Tapit)
Here is another colt shunned in the Future Wager. I would love to hear Churchill Downs’ logic in having six maiden winners, two maidens, and one unraced horse in the Future Wager field and not having a colt who most recently closed fast to finish second by a nose in the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes, duplicating the performance of Brown’s colt Sierra Leone, who was regarded as one of the leading Derby contenders off his nose defeat in the Remsen. In any event, he was left out and all you can do is look ahead and see if this colt turns out to be Derby material. At this point we know he’s consistent, has a strong closing punch, and has finished first going a mile, second, beaten a nose, going 1 1/8 miles, third going seven furlongs, and fourth going 1 1/16 miles on the grass. As for his breeding I will stack his pedigree against any other 3-year-old, with his female family going back a number of generations of Edward. P. (Ned) Evans’ Spring Hill Farm breeding. First off, Aviator Gui’s sire and broodmare sire have combined to sire five Belmont Stakes winners. His dam is a half-sister to Horse of the Year and Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Gun Runner, who stands at Aviator Gui’s owner and breeder’s Three Chimneys Farm; his second dam is a half-sister to Horse of the Year and Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Saint Liam, and his female family traces back to the legendary Gallorette, who raced against colts, including Hall of Famers Stymie, Assault, and Armed, an amazing 56 times, winning such big races as the Met Mile, Whitney, Brooklyn, and Carter Handicap. He just started back breezing at Payson Park and is pointing for the Risen Star Stakes.
12—Chancer McPatrick (Chad Brown, Mckinzie – Bernardreamy, by Bernardini)
I debated whether to rank him because he hadn’t worked since the Breeders’ Cup, after which he had an ankle chip removed. But lo and behold he finally showed up on the worktab, breezing three furlongs in :39 at Payson Park and is being pointed for the March 8 Tampa Bay Derby, so we put him in the top 15 and likely will move him up once his works get more serious. We still need to see another two-turn race before forming any opinions, as I don’t trust last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile as a good gauge, and who knows if the ankle chip had any bearing on his disappointing performance, in which he never showed his customary big late kick. But his running style never looked suited to Del Mar anyway. I figure he will have at least four more works, so he should be ready for the Tampa Derby. That is not the surface on which you want to send out a short horse, especially having only two preps this year and off a four-month layoff and surgery. You have to be pretty fit on a track that can get kind of deep and quirky. He no doubt is a very talented colt, but there are still question marks and we can’t even begin to get a feel for him until we see how he’s coming up to the race. But any Hopeful and Champagne winner has to be taken seriously.
13—Poster (Eoin Harty, Munnings – Pin Up, by Tapit)
I normally wouldn’t consider a son of the speed-oriented Munnings as a Derby contender, but this Godolphin homebred has a very strong female family, is undefeated on dirt and grass, rates beautifully off the pace, and has already won a Grade 2 stakes at 1 1/8 miles in his dirt debut. Yes, he almost blew a two-length lead in the Remsen, but I have runner-up Aviator Gui ranked fairly high, and Flavien Prat, riding him for the first time, may have gone to the lead too early. He posted a strong Brisnet late pace figure of 102, and while his speed figures need to get faster he has improved from a 77 to 81 to 92 and he made a huge leap on Thoro-Graph in his dirt debut from a “13 ¼” and “12” on grass to a “6 ¾.” Although grass figures by 2-year-olds tend to be on the slow side it is important to note that in his one-mile allowance victory at Keeneland he did close his final quarter in :23 flat. And ran his final three-eighths in the Remsen in a quick :36 3/5. We’ll just have to see where goes from here and how much farther he wants to run.
14—Coal Battle (Lonnie Briley, Coal Front – Wolfblade, by Midshipman)
I originally had him just below the top 15 until his reputation was boosted when Speed King, who he ran down late to win the Springboard Mile, came back to wire his field in Saturday’s Southwest Stakes at 14-1, defeating heavy hitters Patch Adams and Gaming, who both were out of the money. He is four-for-four on dirt, including victories on fast, muddy, and sloppy tracks, and is coming off three straight stakes victories at Delta Downs, Remington Park, and Oaklawn Park. In fact he has made six starts at six different racetracks, He also has a fast-closing fourth in the Kentucky Downs Juvenile Mile on grass..He has shown how versatile he is by rallying from eighth and just getting up in the final jumps to win the Springboard Mile and then winning the Smarty Jones Stakes wire-to-wire by four lengths. So he has shown he can win from anywhere and on any kind of racetrack. He’s been working at Delta Downs, so right now he is a million miles from Churchill Downs, and having sold for $70,000 at a yeariing sale in Texas he also is a million miles from Keeneland September. I have no idea how good he is, but there is no ignoring his record, and, now, who he has beaten.
(tie) 15—Disco Time (Brad Cox, Not This Time – Disco Chick, by Jump Start)
(tie) 15—Built (Wayne Catalano, Hard Spun – Sea Garden, by Curlin)
Sorry, I tried but I cannot separate these two horses and I cannot get a read on the LeComte Stakes. Yes it was on a sloppy track , but the time was not only slow, a maiden race earlier on the card was run faster, and the Silverbulletday Stakes fo 3-year-old fillies was almost three full seconds laster, And on top of that, the first six finishers were separated by only 2 ¾ lengths and the pacesetter, who hung tough for third, beaten only three-quarters of a length, was coming off six-furlong and 5 ½-furlong races. But Disco Time and Built both looked like very promising horses going into the race and they deserve another shot on a fast track. OK, so why are they in a tie when the victorious Disco Time had a much wider trip than Built, as indicated by Disco Time’s “6 ¾” Thoro-Graph number compared to Built’s “8 ¼?” That’s because the winner was coming of an “8 ½” and a “7 ½” while Built was coming off a sensational “2 ¾” in the Gun Runner Stakes and looked magnificent doing it, winning by almost seven lengths over a fast Fair Grounds surface. And I can’t believe this horse simply regressed that much. I also can’t help but look back at last year’s Risen Star Stakes run over a similar sloppy track and compare the two. They were almost duplicate races with Disco Time and last year’s winner Sierra Leone having the exact same trip and swinging at least eight-wide turning for home and charging down the stretch out in the middle of the track in the 10-path before getting up in the final strides. I’m thinking, looking back at Fair Grounds preps in general, many are won from the far outside. Built had to be rushed up from post 11 and wound up down on the inside most of the way and rallied to finish second. I have no idea who ran the better race or who had the better trip and for now it’s just best to keep them tied at least for Week 1.
KNOCKING ON THE DOOR
With so many inexperienced horses in the Future Wager field and so many promising and impressive maiden winners I have decided at least for now to leave off all maiden winners until we see how they do against winners. We saw what happened to Patch Adams, one of the most spectacular maiden winners in recent memory. But most will be addressed in Knocking on the Door, and the Derby winner could certainly come from this group if they can catch up quickly enough.
There is a fine line between being ranked and knocking on the door and we can expect a number of changes after Saturday’ three big stakes, the Robert Lewis, Holy Bull, and Withers.
It is too soon after the Southwest Stakes to make any kind of judgment about this race, which no one expected, as SPEED KING set an uncontested pace and just kept going. Runner-up SANDMAN, who we mentioned earlier, probably was best after a terrible start and a big late run. But the big stories were the failure of PATCH ADAMS to finish better than fourth after a jaw-dropping maiden romp that may simply have been too fast and the hard-luck performance by GAMING, who got bounced off the rail nearing the first turn, dropped far back and never recovered.
Touching base on a couple of last year’s accomplished 2-year-olds, we have to put unbeaten Florida-bred sensation RATED BY MERIT on hold, as he has not worked since November after demolishing his opposition in all three legs of the Florida Stallion Stakes while earning monster Brisnet speed figures of 101, 1i06, and 109 and Thoro-Graph numbers of “3, 3, 2 ½, and 2,” which are freakishly fast and consistent numbers for a 2-year-old’s first four career starts.
JONATHAN’S WAY, another top-class 2-year-old who lost some of his luster in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, which proved to be a disaster for all the Eastern horses, did rebound in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, but couldn’t catch First Resort as the 4-5 favorite. By the brilliant Vekoma, we’ll have to wait to see how far he wants to go.
ADMIRAL DENNIS, who I wrote about in November as one of my five under the radar horses to watch after his maiden victory, got back on the winning track last week, winning a 1 1/16-mile allowance race at Fair Grounds in workmanlike fashion, scoring by three-quarters of a length as the 1-2 favorite. In his previous start, the Gun Runner Stakes, he stumbled at the break, made a brief bid, but wound up a well-beaten fourth. He earned a “7 ¾” Thoro-Graph number in his allowance win, so he will have to improve off that when he returns to stakes company.
There were several first-out maiden winners who appear to have a bright future, but I’m not sure if they have enough time to be major Derby contenders, especially those who will have to do a lot of cramming to get more than three lifetime starts before the first Saturday in May. One was the Ken McPeek-trained HYPNUS, who not only turned in powerful and near-flawless performance going 1 1/16 miles at Fair Grounds in the slop, he ran four-fifths of a second faster than the LeComte Stakes later on the card. He is a beautiful mover who weaved through traffic and powered his way to the lead before drawing away from the 5-2 favorite at 16-1. But this was on January 18, which is very late to make your career debut, and he still has never run on a fast track.
Th other January first timer was GRANDE from the Pletcher – Repole team, who was very professional putting away a 1-2 favorite in the stretch to win by 2 ½ lengths in 1:36 3/5 for the mile after pressing a :44 3/5 half. He also earned a “5 ½” Thoro-Graph number, which is strong for a first-time starter. By Curlin, out of a War Front mare, distance should not be a problem, but by making his career debut on January 11 he is another with an awful lot of catching up to do. The one horse did debut in December is GUNMETAL, even though it was December 26 and only six furlongs at Fair Grounds. He is another who was strong in the stretch, with the runner-up more than seven lengths ahead of the third horse. By running the six furlongs in 1:09 4/5 he earned a 96 Beyer and 99 Brisnet figure, but more important an outrageous “3/4” Thoro-Graph number, so where does he go from there with a number like that? We’ll find out soon enough in Saturday seven-furlong Swale Stakes if that was too fast too soon. His co-owner, WinStar Farm, is also high on first-out winner TAPPAN STREET, a $1 million 2-year-old purchase who runs in Saturday’s Holy Bull. They also sent out a very promising colt in RAPTURE at Oaklawn Saturday. The son of Uncle Mo looked like a powerhouse in his second career start, winning off by 6 ½ lengths going 1 1/16 miles. His time was only a fifth of a second slower than the Southwest Stakes later on the card. He did it the right way and looks to be a star in the making.
One colt who was very impressive winning his career debut in November is GRAYSCALE, a 4 ½-length wire-to-wire winner at Gulfstream, earning strong early, middle, and late-pace Brisnet figures, all in the 90s, and a solid 92 speed figure. But he will have to improve off his “9 ¼”Thoro-Graph number. The son of Frosted has been training brilliantly for Saffie Joseph Jr. with back-to-back bullet works after a fever set him back a little. Visually, you couldn’t ask a colt to look any better in his career debut. His mechanics are flawless and he does everything like a seasoned pro. He was entered in an allowance race last week but it didn’t fill. They will try again in Satturday’s Swale Stakes. Also, for future reference, watch out for his unraced stablemate by Gun Runner named THOUGHT CONTROL, who has turned in several dazzling works for his debut.
Even though we ranked three Bob Baffert horses, he still has quite a few serious back-ups, headed by RODRIGUEZ, who would have made the Top 15 if I were ranking maiden winners. I loved the way he broke his maiden going 1 1/16 miles and the way he just seemed to float over the ground. He definitely is one to watch next time out. He is nominated to Saturday’s Robert Lewis Stakes, but no word yet if he runs. One horse who Baffert said will take on Citizen Bull in the Lewis is MADAKET ROAD, who should improve off his maiden victory. Baffert also has ROMANESQUE, who defeated Rodriguez in a maiden race before chasing Barnes home in the San Vicente Stakes; SAN SABA, a horse Baffert touted heavily before he ran and then finished a good third to Madaket Road after pressing a blazing pace; and old reliable GETAWAY CAR, who has run six times and is a Grade 3 winner and runner-up in a Grade 1 and 2 and was beaten in a photo for third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.
If you are looking for a potential Baffert antagonist not trained by Mike McCarthy, keep an eye on FATHER TED, who roared by Baffert’s first timer San Saba in the stretch and just missed catching Madaket Road in a powerful career debut. But it was only six furlongs and he has a long way to go to catch up.
In addition to Ferocious and Tappan Street, the Holy Bull also drew the Mucho Macho Man winner GUNS LOADED; the Bill Mott-trained BURNING GLORY, a gutsy winner last out at Churchill Downs in a quick 1:35 2/5 fo the mile; and a very interesting colt in BURNHAM SQUARE, who is coming off a brilliant nine-length romp at Gulfstream with first time blinkers.
One horse with a good deal of experience who I find intriguing, even though he still needs to get faster is Jerome Stakes winner CYCLONE STATE. After four defeats, he has won his last three races all at a flat mile at Aqueduct, all wire-to-wire, and all by open lengths. In his last five starts his Brisnet figures have climbed from a 73 to a 93, improving with each race. He looks like a tough, hard-knocking colt who will make his presence felt wherever he runs. His Thoro-Graph numbers are going in the right direction; they just need to keep improving against what promises to be tougher competition.
Saturday’s Withers Sttakes at 1 1/8 miles showcases several unproven horses looking to take advantage of the longer distance and thrust themselves into the Derby picture. One horse who was impessive first out at Keeneland displaying a stong closing kick is UNCLE JIM, who was forced to chase Cyclone State early in a one-mile allowance race after breaking from the rail, There should be more speed this time for him to take back and use his late kick. If he can run back to his career debut he should be tough. But he will have to out-close a powerful stretch runeer in OMAHA OMAHA, who wss flying at the end of the Jerome Stakes to finish second following a pair of scintillating victories at Delaware Park and Laurel. This son of Audible is bred to run all day. Both will have to run down Smarty Jones Stakes runner-up MO QUALITY and a very intriguing CAPTAIN COOK, who blew away his field by 9 1/4 lengths going seven furlongs in the slop for Rick Dutrow..
Racing historian, author, and award-winning retired journalist for the Daily Racing Form and The Blood-Horse, Steve Haskin was inducted into the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame’s Media Roll of Honor in 2016. Known for his racing knowledge and insightful prose, he has been an exclusive contributor to Secretariat.com since 2020.
Hill Road?
The following information is for those fellow contributors who pay attention to how fast the prep winners ran the last furlong:
Captain Cook: 12.622 (won the 9 furlongs of the Whiters Stakes)
Burnham Square: 12.532 (1 1/16 mile of the Holy Bull)
Citizen Bull: 13.192 (Robert B. Lewis at a MILE)
River Thames: 13.252 (AOC at a mile)
It is really outstanding how fast Captain Cook ran at the end considering the distance … but Burnham Square stands out comparing all finishing furlongs last Saturday.
Tappan Street ran his last furlong in 12.954 … the son of Into Mischief is bound to improve after his only second start…
Very informative numbers Nelson. Citizen Bulls last furlong was pedestrian. Let’s see how CB does as the distances increase and he faces some real pace pressure. I can’t wait till Journalism locks horns with CB. My $ will be on Journalism. Journalism is prepping for the MAR 1 San Felipe which IMO will not include Barnes or CB. CB is in the KY Derby with 60 points. CB IMO will target the SA Derby next.
BARNES suppose to be in the San Felipe but i am all over Journalism as well.
Well done Nelson. I would like to point out that Citizen Bull was the only colt of the aforementioned winners that ran sub 24 splits until the last furlong.
I think Captain Cook had the best final furlong when you factor in the track variance
of 36, indicating how slow the track played for his race, and he ran 9 panels. Final times are important as you stated.
Praetor is an interesting one who is working again. He possesses good early speed and then another gear. The maiden race between Praetor and Sovereignty was a beaut. The manner in which he quickly opened up in the stretch after being pressed throughout was impressive. Only thing more impressive was Sovereignty gobbling him up with those long strides. Praetor could be Chad brown’s best three year old.
Considering Ferocious 4th place finish by 11 lengths in the Holy Bull, it is a given he will not retain his 5th place ranking on Steve’s list.
In retrospect of Citizen Bull’s performance in the RB Lewis, it would seem he would move up from 4th in place of Sovereignty at #2, but how bullish is Steve on East Avenue remaing at #1? We’ll have to see.
KOTD has a handful of eager prospects ready to elevate their position. There’s recent winners Burnham Square, Captain Cook, Speed King, Cyclone State in addition
to respectable place finishes by Sandman, Rodriguez, and Tappan Street. Should be
interesting in his minor adjustments for week 2. Looking forward to his assessments of Caldera and Owen Almighty. Still a ways to go but it’s slowly heating up.
Hey kmi
I’m somewhat surprised you failed to mention River Thames as a likely addition to Steve’s Week Two Rankings. I predict RT will land somewhere in Steve’s top 15.
We shall see in short order.
Hey Bill, I posted some stake winners from Steve’s KOTD list that I think are further along than River Thames. But not to take
anything away from him, I have a eye on him.
Saw 3 very good races this past Saturday. Steve, should be ranking now by the reality and not by the hope for the future. I would expect Citizen Bull (CB) to be ranked #1 and a BIG JUMP for Burnham Square (BS) who just blew by a full out Tappen Street at the top of the stretch. Trainer said BS is a changed horse since adding blinkers and doesn’t get tired and from I have seen in his last 2 race I have a hard time doubting him. Captain Cook (CC) is another horse who should move up the rank considerably. But I do think Duttrow is making a mistake by waiting 9 weeks for the Wood Memorial. I think the Gotham at 1 mile is perfect prep race for the Wood even if it is only a one turn race and the horse loves the track. And the same with Baffert with CB if he decides to wait until the Santa Anita. With Baffert it might be a matter of trying to get as many of his horses to get point for the KD. Apparently with CB this horse has “clinched” his spot for the KD. JMO
Steve waiting as is everyone else your next ranking.
that should have been ” wait until the Santa Anita Derby”
Masterclass Bob won’t wait for the SA derby for the Bull; he said the Bull needs to be racing to get into 100% fitness
I know this is Steve’s list but and again I am talking about the “now” horses I would again move Citizen Bull up to #1 based on his previous results and his authoritative win in the Robert Lewis. For #2 I would move (I can hear the gasp already) Burnham Square. I have watched his last 2 races and am totally impressed with him (His looks remind me of Real Quiet). He passed Tappan Street (who was not a tiring horse) like he was standing still. He ran like there was no tomorrow. I am not holding nothing against the other horses that are ranked 1-2-3 but until they run and show their true colors and abilities as a 3 year olds this is the way I feel. I would also put Captain Cook up to #3 who also ran a very good race but just not as impressive as the other 2. Again…. JMO
Maybe we should mention that Tiztastic is likely to run in the Rebel. Be a mistake to count him out of the running.
Interesting movement late Sunday in futures odds:
Barnes still 10-1
Citizen Bull 14-1
Sovereignty and Sandman next at 18-1; a lot of money must have been bet to get Sandman to 18-1
Disco Time 20-1
Burnham Road 22-1
Correction: Burnham Square
It is such a relief and privilege to join you again on this journey to the Roses Steve. Your detail is mind boggling. You must spend all of November, December and these last few weeks of January loading your cannon to produce so much information on these youngsters. As usual, I am here again and I really am thankful for your efforts. January will be an especially cold time of the year when you decide to hang up your pen for coffee cups and pastry. Until then giddy up my friend, the road is long and winding but one thing is for sure. We here at this site have the best guide and view of what is happening on the road to Louisville. Thanks for your monster effort on this opening week of Haskin’s Road to the Derby.
jaw dropping!
Twinspires has a great feature for those using their platform. You can add these horses to your stable and with a click of a button, you can then bring up video of their races or pp’s. Really see what Steve is talking about with each of these youngsters. Steve’s list is a great start but you have to be willing to spend a little time watching film and crunching numbers. But at this time of year, get out the coffee and watch some prime efforts from the warmth of your breakfast nook. Party on Wayne!
I am glad to see Remsen winner Poster working at Tampa today the 5 furlongs in a notable 1:01.60 … the fastest time out of other 20 workouts. Looks like he will also like Tampa surface after training on the AW at Turfway Park…
The following are the workouts of Steve’s top 12 during January:
East Avenue: 49.2, 49.2, 59.40, 1:01.40, 48.80 all at FG
Sovereignty: 15Jan=>49.2, 49.2 [15 days apart at Payson]
Journalism: 23 Jan=> 49.80, 30 Jan=>48.80
Citizen Bull: Won the Lewis yesterday
Ferocious: ran 4th in the HM yesterday
Barnes: 48.60, 48.60, and 59.80 yesterday at SA
First Report: 26 Jan=> 48.80 (first breeze in a month) at TP
Keep it Easy: 48.71, 48.28, 48.37, 46.62 at GP
Treaty of Rome: 49.60, 50.40 at Payson
Bullard: 47.80, 48.60, 1:00.20 at SA
Aviator Gui: 49.60, 50.40 at Payson
Chancer McPatrick: Jan26=>39, 37.80 today at Payson
POSTER: 1:02.80, 1:03 flat, 1:02.60 at TP and 1:01.60 TODAY at Tampa.
East Avenue does not seem bothered by his blunder in the BCJ by the looks of his steadfast training.
It has been plain sailing for Bullard and Barnes after the San Vicente.
Keep it Easy’s fast breezes are validating his impressive win in the 6.5 furlongs of the Ed Brown Stakes at Churchill on November 30th…
Chad Brown needs a bit of catch up with Chancer and Aviator Gui … also First Resort seems to be lagging … I guess!
No rush with Journalism and I hope Sovereignty could train with regularity this month….!
With apologies to Steve and not to get political but did any else noticed Baffert and his entourage doing the “Trump Dance” after the Lewis?
Maybe he was casting his spell over helpless owners. If you believe his critics, how else would he have a barn full of the best horses?
He does have a barn full of the “best horses” if you consider high auction prices to mean they are the best.
We’ve all seen this movie play out year after year. He receives a barn full of young horses and most are never heard from again…. after a few races. People only remember the few that perform well.
Best horses?
Of the 15 horse ranked by Steve, only 2 are from BB’s barn.
Best horses?
Of the 15 horses ranked by Steve, only two are from BB’s barn.
On that note, did anyone notice a photo behind Trumps desk of a jockey along with another someone else? Wondering who that jockey is.
Saw that John… got a laugh on it.
With Saturday’s Derby prep races in the record books, it time to update my top 15 colts on the Derby trail. It appears that Donut God and Rated by Merit are off the Derby trail, so I’ll drop those two from my previous top prospects list.
My current top 15 prospects are as follows.
1) Sovereignty
2) Citizen Bull
3) Barnes
The remaining 12 are not necessarily in preferential order.
Journalism
East Avenue
Coal Battle
Hypnus (new)
Disco Time
River Thames (new)
Getaway Car
Speed King
Gate to Wire (new)
First Resort
Poster
Chancer McPatrick
I’m looking forward to Steve’s Kentucky Derby Rankings Week Two.
In Week One, Citizen Bull was ranked at #4. Based on his impressive performance in the RBL, I expect he’ll move up a notch or two, in Steve’s Week Two Rankings. Stay tuned.
The possible changes would be around moving Ferocious out or down and the Bull up… I guess.
I wonder what will Steve do with River Thames? ….
I expect to see River Thames somewhere in Steve’s top 15 prospects. His pedigree reflects speed on top (Macleans Music) with a ton of class and stamina influence on the bottom, IMO. His dam’s sire, Discreet Cat tracks back to Private Account, Numbered Account and Buckpasser. Renowned breeder, Ogden Phipps has his fingerprints all over River Thames’ dam side. From my perspective, the inbreeding of Numbered Account and Buckpasser was a major factor that led to California Chrome’s successful career.
BTW, Macleans Music had only one start in his very short career, but he made the most of it going 6 furlongs, in 1:07.44, earning a super impressive Equibase Speed figure of 115. I don’t know the exact number, but several Macleans Music colts have won at first asking. River Thames was one of those.
McLean’s Music has the reputation of producing sprinters and brilliant milers (i.e. Jackie’s Warrior, Drain the Clock, Complexity, Wayward Act, Share the Upside…) but he is also the sire of Preakness winner Cloud Computing who got a stamina laden female family. Also, a son McLean’s Music named Musical Heart (out of Lion Heart mare) was a stayer winner of the Flat Out Stakes at 1 3/8-mile on dirt.
It is encouraging to see Touch Gold, Grindstone and inbreeding to (5×5) Damascus and Unbridled (4×5) in River Thames’ pedigree.
Let’s see how Pletcher manages the beautiful son of McLean’s Music.
Nice list, Bill. I removed all the numbers from my top 12 (actually lucky 13). I like the following, but the order is in flux, to say the least.
East Avenue
Citizen Bull
Burnham Square
Tappan Street
Rodriguez
Barnes
Journalism
Coal Battle
Sandman
Sovereignity
Captain Cook
Patch Adams
Tiztastsic
I am keeping my original top 12 but swapping First Resort’ slot for Poster, replacing Madaket Road by Rodriguez:
Citizen Bull
East Avenue
Journalism
Barnes
Sovereignty
Poster
Rodriguez
Romanesque
Bullard
First Resort
Sandman
Coal Battle
Thanks, Ms Blacktype
Had I remembered Sandman’s impressive close in the Southwest, I would have used him in my top 15, but I’m not sure who I would drop.
Agreed! At this point, all these 3YOs are bursting with potential and it’s hard to know which one is going to progress the right way to Louisville.
Citizen Bull ran the race most handicappers expected. He beat two stablemates which were last out maiden winners. Upon further review, the final time will not make future competition duck him….unless BB decides to keep racing him against more stablemates.
1:36.71 for the mile with fractional times of 23:27, 47:06, 1:10.99 and 1:23.52
One race earlier (fillies and mares) Kopion ran 7 furlongs in 1:21.27
fractional times of 22:67, 45:04, and 1:08.75
He’s a nice horse and at this juncture he might be BB’s best derby hope.
98 BSF out of the gate for the Bull; a slight bump in his BSF will win him the KD if can get distance.
107 Equipbase Speed Figure as well B and almost matched Nysos’ time last year.
FYI…Kopian was the start yesterdy getting a 110 Beyer…an other wordly race.
Congrats to her.
Kopian appearance looks incredible and she ran to it. If stays healthy will be the FM sprint champion this year
Seems you have it all figured out, Jeff. Why even run the Derby at all? What if he draws the rail? Too many good horses, way too early yet.
Agree Mike! Way way too early; too many variables but I would rather be in the Bulls seat then not at this stage.
Okay, Jeff. Good luck with your selections this spring.
Good point-why run in the KD? Many don’t race again and many don’t win again!
“If” is a mighty big word.
With the Beyer logic, You’re discounting all the other hopefuls, including a couple of more from the BB barn.
I’ll be glad to see him fail this year!
And he will Michelle.
There are many different approaches to the handicapping and evaluation of young horses. I use historic information as a guide were relevant. But historic information isn’t what drives my final decision.
In a post ahead of the HB I used the final times of the Keeneland Breeder Futurity and BCJ to extrapolate a final time for Ferocious. Both extrapolations revealed that the colt has not broken 1:44 for 8 1/2F. Yet he was the ML for the HB.
Many concluded that he was the class of the field because of his placements and participation in 3 GI stakes. However, there is difference between class and graded stakes experience.
Further, Ferocious performance in the Futurity indicated to me he that he isn’t a genuine router. His stride mechanics in the closing stage of that race revealed same.
I landed on Gate to Wire in the Swale. Many are of the opinion I hate TP. How did I land on a race entrant trained by the Hall of Fame trainer that I hate? Because I do not hate the gentleman but rather what his program does to his horses.
I outline why I fancied the colt, and he proved my assessment correct with the handsome reward @13/1.and an exacta of $174
Those who chose to disparage one contributor’s approach must be mindful that their own hasn’t proven as successful. I have highlighted many winners at long and decent odds using my approach. This indicates there is no blueprint for handicapping and evaluation.
My advice to my fellow contributor is sticks to your opinions and what works for you. Do not be influenced snide remarks by people who think they witty.
I think Ferocious is a one turn horse—classy—but one turn..
Thinking you’re correct Matthew. Hope you cashed yesterday.
Congrats on picking Gate to Wire, Counter. There was little in his PPs to indicate he was sitting on a winning race but you saw something many others didn’t.
Congrats Counter!
Wow.
You HATE a HOF trainer?
That’s sick
The Citizen Bull race—was not a true race—Rodriguez outbroke the field—and was taken back—there was never a challenge to the winner—who is a good horse….but I am unable to decipher much, out of a “race” like that…..I’ll just say two good horses ran around the track—-two good horses ran at Gulfstream, too—lower Beyer than The Lewis (98 to 90) but it WAS a real horse race!
Agree Matthew W, but don’t forget that Citizen Bull bobbled at the start as well and his time was similiar to Nysos’ win last year-off by about .06 of a second.
No it was a good run….but until The Bull gets looked in the eye—I’ll wait, on the superlatives…he stumbled out of there but there was never going to be a battle, for the lead—
Masterclass Bob didn’t think the Bull was at his true fitness. Bulls six furlong split was horse race time. We will see but he has the right running style, enjoys racing, game as heck, and a champion.
I remember Game on Dude could run FAST—alone, and then re-brake, and win offby himself—-but when another horse challenged him he did not win off—I’m not going g to get impressed, by a lonely lead winner, in fact I thought Rodriguez was more impressive, I expect he will become the better horse…
Same with Authentic: got beat by a filly when challenged early. Same with AP: got beat by a closer when challenged early.
You wanna beat Bob’s frontrunners? Take it to them. They can’t handle it.
Correct Michelle. Same formula as always. He’s a factory trainer only.
Here’s some sobering thoughts. There have been 92 runnings of the Santa Catalina/Robert B. Lewis Stakes and of those 90 odd, two have gone on to win the Kentucky Derby – I’ll Have Another in 2012 and Ferdinand in 1986.
Bob Baffert has now won this race an amazing 13 times but is yet to win the Kentucky Derby through this prep race. Will 2025 be the year? The odds don’t look too convincing do they?
There have been some 37 runnings of the Preview/Holy Bull Stakes and guess how many of those37 have gone on to win the Kentucky Derby? One, just 1, Barbaro in 2006.
There’s a long, long way to wait until May, 3. As you can see above, sometimes what you are seeing is not exactly what you are seeing. Ha ha Good luck with your punting.
Good stats but that’s all it is in racing; a 2 year old champion with the masterclass trainer just cruised first out when not fully cranked! Follow the stats at ur peril.
Jeff, it was more for fun than consideration but I did think the Baffert, 13 wins in RobertB. Lewis/Santa Catalina but no Kentucky Derby follow through quite fascinating really.
Davids my friend I always stop to read your remarks but if you keep going down this cold facts trail I’m going to get my guitar out and that is not good news my friend.
Hi El Kabong, we’re actually in a horrendous heatwave at present – 104 max, 78 min – with rain at times, humidity is overbearing so I’m stuck inside twiddling my thumbs a bit.
Of course, I could mention how many times a Breeders’ Juvenile has gone on to win the Kentucky Derby but that may a statistic too far. Ha ha
Well stay cool and refreshed. Perhaps a nice chilled bottle of pinot grigio or sauv blanc. Shrimp and mussles or clams. Keep it simple and tasty in that kind of weather.
These horses mature so much between Feb-May and that is why you cannot put too much stock into the early success of so many unless they continue to mature and get better.
Cheers Mate
Thanks, mate but it’s my first day back at work. Haha Mind you, I work from home most of the time. We had a very nice bottle of Prosecco last night just the same.
Exactly right and some are returning from long layoffs while others have had a couple of races up their sleeves.
What impresses me most around this time is a colt that can handle poor starts, troubled trips and keep on fighting- Sandman is the colt that fits the bill. Coal Battle is a sentimental favorite for obvious reasons.
Cheers mate.
Some here seem to forget when mentioning that Citizen Bull beat two recent maiden winners.
Will lets investigate them:
Madaket Road:
His First race was a place in the Gr III Bob Hope, where he lost to Bullard and beat McKenzie Street. Bullard came back and ran 3rd to the current KD future leader Barnes
McKenzie Street (a need the lead speed horse) has so far placed 2nd in a Gr I race and showed in a Gr I race and showed in a Gr III race.
Rodriguez: Placed to Romanesque who in turn placed to the current KD future leader Barnes.
CB also beat a Gr III winner and Gr II place in Clock Tower a speed horse. Who was behind Madaket Road.
What speaks volumes is the current public betting.
Good investigative work. Doesn’t change the fact that they are recent maiden winners. You can make a case for dozens of recent maiden winners that blew away their competitors with lofty Beyer figures. Or, ran decently against graded foes.
But, you never know. They might put it together soon and score a few races down the road.
Yes Gary, good points, lightening seldom strikes twice in the same spot. I think I’ll pass on today’s efforts.
Great write up; I like trainers who know to develop and know how to prep a horse for the rigors of the KD. I would be shocked if any of the horses from the holy bull would perform well in the KD. Don’t know if the Bull can make a mile and quarter but his trainer is a masterclass versus his peers. Bull is big time and is still improving. Should he learn to rate or continue to take it to the field early and often?
The wheels came off on a couple of my picks. Congrats to those who had Burnham Square, Captain Cook, and Citizen Bull. Looks like Pletcher has a nice colt in River Thames also.
River Thames along with Emergence posted competitive times to keep an eye out for them in the future.
The Sam F Davis at Tampa Bay is up next.
That Holy Bull winner looks legit….deep close short stretch–easily….
The Bull keeps pulling out another gear every time he runs, no matter the size of the field.
I think I’m tossing Rodrigues out of the Derby, unless he shows me something different in his next race that he has not yet shown.
Rodriguez DOES NOT LIKE BEING INSIDE (sorry caps for highlighting only and NOT yelling).
The winner of the Withers Captain Cook (who I had picked today) may make it to the Derby, but finishing in the top Hi-5 is out.
The Holy Bull Winner, was good, but appears to be a late runner and that is out from the big Derby field, unless there is a suicide pace.
The champ, Citizen Bull, wins again. This horse is a winning machine. Beat very, very talented horses today in Rodriquez (a 101 Beyer last time out) and Madaket Road.
This horse is still number #1 until beaten. Just like boxing you have to beat the champion to be champion, as of today, Citizen Bull is still #1.
Sure! In a five horse field with three from one barn.
I’m not going to answer some particular Baffert hating troll…especially from the same person time and time again…
Time and time again is always your go-to -song. Same tune,different year. You do not have a monopoly on this blog, ‘John’. My opinion is every bit as good as yours.
It isn’t “Baffert hating troll ” to state FACTS
Thanks Michelle! BB doesn’t know this individual exists.
It doesn’t have to be 5 horses; why not anyone from the East coast show up?
Yawn.
Why doesn’t Bob ship to Aqueduct?
Martin Garcia reuniting with Baffert will be a good storyline if the son of Into Mischief remains at the top of the heap.
Kinda have a soft spot for him.
The two times that he got axed by BB was hen he got a call from Mex. that someone knew where his parents were. AND he took off immediately and BB does not like that.
Not sure if most here know his whole history. Like who is parents were and who brought him up etc.
typo * when
Bob used to call him, “Alvin”, as in the Chipmunks. Bob is rude like that.
Always!
Citizen Bull ran as expected. He was by far the class of the field.
However, I missed the very, very talented horses part. He beat two recent maiden winners. Double and triple checked….Yup, maiden winners.
Perhaps, I misunderstood. You meant future very, very talented horses.
The gelding and homebred Burnham Square validated his impressive maiden win in winning the Holy Bull defeating a very game very very hard to ride Tappan Street. Good performance for the son of Into Mischief in only his second start.
the times are better than standard: 23.42 47.60 1:11.69 1:37.19 1:43.60 finishing the last 1/16 in an excellent 6.41. The blinkers made him even better today…!
The Florida Derby will get harder but the son of Liam’s Map has shown a ton of raw talent already.
Hey Nelson:
Yes, he has. I loved the way he came up to and passed Tappan Street, who was running so well I thought he would win the race. He’s leaped into my personal top five. But there was another Cox runner who caught my eye earlier on the card. Did you notice FIRST TIME STARTER Emergence (Race 7), who won at the same distance four-fifths faster than Burnham Square? He was bumped and overcame trouble early in the race yet closed with alacrity. He may be overlooked in the River Thames—Swale—Holy Bull juggernaut, but he’s definitely one to watch. Could make some noise on the TT trail.
Emergence was impressive. Ms Blacktype, please note that the time of the son of Uncle Mo is not comparable to that of Burnham Square because it was on the All Weather synthetic track…
But you are right in highlighting his performance… his pedigree suggest he will be even better on dirt. His dam Belle Watling by Pulpit produced War Story and Land over Sea both excellent Stakes winners on dirt and she has 3 other good runners on dirt …
BTW I feel like the trainers are more prone now in using AW and Turf tracks to get their horses in solid shape…since Hill Road third in the BCJ you have horses like Poster, First Resort, Gate to Wire and Souper Times today transferring their form to dirt rather easily…
Thanks for the reminder… I will include Emergence in my virtual stable ipso facto
Nelson, thanks for pointing out Emergence ran on the all-weather track. I should have noticed that track looked grayer and sandier than the main course.
Nelson
I agree, Burnham Square’s win in the Hold Bull was quite impressive. However, the fact that he’s a gelding could work against him as a legitimate Kentucky Derby prospect.
In modern times, only two geldings have won the Derby, Funny Cide in 2003, and Mine That Bird in 2009. There were three geldings that won the Derby back in the 1800’s, and four in the early 1900’s. I doubt very seriously if Burnham Square will have an impact on this year’s Kentucky Derby. Just my opinion.
I thought Tappan Street put up a gallant effort to finish 2nd, and I’ll continue to support him moving forward.
You are sounding now like your friend Coldfacts…LOL… too many exchanges perhaps…just kidding!!!
Yes… being a gelding could be easily consider a drawback … but, for example, if you take into account the number of geldings than ran in the Kentucky Derby this Century we can not dismiss them. For instance, 15 Geldings have competed for the Roses in 12 years. So, two (2) wins out of 12 opportunities to do is a good stats to me…9% strike rate is better than that of the best trainers, jockeys or owners for that matter.
As many of our fellow contributors have stated ad nauseam, every Derby trail is different. The right questions to answer are: Is this gelding better than other ones who made to the Derby? What is the quality/characteristics of the competitors of the coming Derby compared to the collective quality of the previous Derbies with gelgings this Century? Ultimately, has this gelding the fastest of all and in the best position to peak on Derby day?
Each horse has the right to write his/her own history as no one can confine them to what other horses have done in the past.
Again, when I say that any given horse is going to lose the Derby (full field) I have 96.7% probability of being right, but on the other hand, if that particular horse wins the Derby then I will be 19 times a fool.
The only thing we can do (and we are doing it every week) is to reassess the probability of each hopeful to first be reach the Derby and then to win it in view of their speed and grit shown in the preps.
***Correction: 2 wins out of 12 possible years for the geldings this Century yields a strike rate of 16.66% which is even more encouraging.
Anyway, Burnham Square did well in one important prep and he still has a tough road ahead regardless of the history of geldings and homebreds in the Derby.
Thank you Nelson.
I was going to jump into this conversation but saw your response.
Colts are gelded for different reasons. Sometimes because of having a nasty disposition and being unmanageable. Another reason is undeserved testicles or rupture or hernia in that area after a difficult birth.
Sometimes the breeder gelds a colt because they do not think the colt will be breeding quality. An example is two time HOY Wise Dan. Mr Fink, Dan’s owner/breeder did not think Dan’s pedigree was not a breeding stallion’s pedigree in that he was by Wiseman’ Ferry.
Sometime owners simply want a racehorse that will have a long career.
Usually geldings are less prone to fractures. Stallions produce tons of testosterone that builds muscle but not bone.
Hooray for the geldings I say!
Correction “undescended” not undeserved.
Darn that autocorrect! Every colt certainly deserves to START OUT with original equipment.
LOL
Thanks for the explanation Lynda. It is said that Forego was gelded as a 2-year-old due to his bad temper but another reason they allude is that it was “partly to keep his forehand from gaining extra weight that would have placed unacceptable strain on his fragile underpinnings”…is the latter reasonable ? I did not know that gelded won’t gain “extra weight” compared to colts and horses…
I don’t know the reason leading to castrate Burnham Square but might be some physical problem as he descends from broodmares selected and bred by Janis Whitham…
Nelson
With respect to “too many exchanges perhaps”, your point is well taken.
In the future, I will do my best to limit my postings.
DO NOT LIMIT your postings… just don’t get baited by CF provocations… by now you should know that CF takes any opportunity to let you know what he knows about figures and stats without really even trying to understand the points behind your posts or even accept that those “facts” are often irrelevant…
Anyway, I like the atmosphere you impress in this forum and follow your lead when posting your bets. Your approach is an honest way to express opinions as opossed to mentioning half a dozen horses and never stating the real bets but claiming winnings after the fact…!?
No worries, Nelson, I’ve never felt threatened by Counter Point’s (AKA Coldfacts) baiting, as you put it. I just accept the fact that he likes to ruffle a few feathers given the opportunity, which seems to be quite often
Best of luck moving forward, Nelson.
No worries at all Bill… the problem is that I can not trust a guy who repeatedly denied he is Coldfacts when everyone knew he just changed his alias…
Until he registers his specific bets as you do I won’t believe anything that he says about his “handicapping prowess”…
Everyone knows that horse players tend to exaggerate their wins and play down all his losses…
Let him play a game with $60 bets in the upcoming preps to see how effective his handicapping techniques are…
And how about the stats of homebreds in the Derby…
PLUS, he appears to be a late runner, with a big field in the derby, that is almost a toss (unless there is a suicide pace duel).
Apparently the faith in Burnham Square was not the that great as they debuted him in a $150K claiming race … that would be another good story line if he happens to outclass his peers in any of the TC jewels…!
Burning Glory for win.
He did well, finishing third behind two very nice colts and ahead of Ferocious, who seems to find trouble wherever he runs.
Impressive win by Citizen Bull in the Robert B. Lewis. Will he land at the top of Steve’s Derby Rankings Week Two? He just might.
I am glad to see Rajiv Maragh winning in great style … excellent ride on a 30-to-1 longshot Mutaawid in GP race 8.
Hope he receives better opportunities down the road..!
Nelson
Did you watch River Thames’ winning performance today? It appears he could be the best colt in the Todd Pletcher barn moving forward on the Derby trail. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Pletcher point River Thames to the FOY, on March 1st, with 50 Derby points going to the winner.
BTW, I noticed River Thames was not mentioned anywhere on Derby Rankings Week One, but I expect to see him ranked somewhere in Steve’s top 15, in Week Two.
Any thoughts on River Thames would be greatly appreciated.
Thanks, Nelson.
Hi Bill… I posted a comment about him right after he crossed the finish line… see below…
I just added that he got a god dosage of stamina in his female family …
Indeed, Seems like River and Grande are Pletcher best two hopefuls so far…
Yes Nelson, I was in the process of typing a comment to you, and missed your comment posted a few minutes earlier. Thanks for posting those fractional times.
it is good idea to refresh the page regularly if you keep it open for long… that is why you did not see my early comment of River Thames…!
Noted.
I guarantee you this: most race callers will mangle the pronunciation!
As expected, River Thames, made use of his superb speed to win the AOC wire to wire at Gulfstream.
All his fractional times were ran in hand: 23.89 46.32 1:10.44 1:23.09 and completing the mile in 1:36.34.
The turf-to-dirt angle continues to render good results with Souper Times running second albeit 5 lengths behind the beautiful son of McLeans Music.
It is encouraging to see Derby winner Grindstone and Belmont Stakes victor Touch Gold, and inbreeding to Unbridled and Damascus in River Thames’ pedigree… let’s see how far he can go…
Tux disappointed always trailing the field… I hope the son of Tapit is OK…
River Thames ran very well…took pressure and switched off—then came around and won like a nice thing—
Today, Barnes (by Into Mischief) worked 5 furlongs in 59.80, (4/58) for trainer Bob Baffert.
He could be pointed to the Rebel Stakes scheduled for February 22nd, with 50 points going to the winner. We’ll see.
Yep. Or perhaps the San Felipe a week later. Oh, the options Baffert has for his three year olds.
Oh! The options EVERY trainer in America have for three year olds..
Thanks for the update Bill. The video of this workout is not out yet…
It is remarkable how steady and consistent Barnes has been training. This was his 30th workouts since April 2024 and the second best 5-furlong breeze. [Barnes worked 5F in 58 flat on September 9th.]
Apparently everything is going as per plan for him… I hope he continues doing well in the mornings and health wise…!
You’re welcome, Nelson.
Where do you think Baffert will point Barnes for his next outing?
Thanks.
I believe Barnes will be running in the Rebel on February 22… as I said there is a ton of prep behind him getting ready for the closest prep…
Into Mischief progenies seem to have the 205KD in their clutches. how can one not emerge the winner. There are sufficient in numbers to form serval tag teams.
What is the stallion’s KD record per crop?
2024 – Resilience 6th (2021 live foals 172)
2023 – Rocket Can 9th; Sun Thunder 11th Cyclone Mischeif 18th (2020 live foals 191)
2022 – No starter (2019 live foals 204)
2021 – Mandaloun 2nd; Highly Motivated 9th; Soup & Sandwich 18th (2018 live foal 199)
2020- Authentic 1st (2017 live foals 201)
2019 – No Starter (2016 live foals 179)
2018 – Audible 3rd (2015 live foals 161)
2017 – Practical Joke 5th (2014 live foals 157)
2016 – No Starter (2013 live foals 168)
2015 – No starter (2012 live foals 35)
2014 – Vicar’s In Trouble 19th (2011 live foals 40)
From 11 starters 1 win; a 2nd & a 3rd.
His 2022 crop might just be his best. But the record of his starters isn’t stellar for 5 times leading sire.
EDIT- They are sufficient in numbers to form several tag teams.
Hi Counter:
Into Mischief has sired TWO official Derby winners — Authentic and Mandaloun, who was elevated to first after the DQ of Medina Spirit. Four of 11 starters in the top three of the Kentucky Derby is quite an achievement in my book. As always, it’s the quality of the horse and not the sire that matters in the end.
Authentic’s win was in September of 2020. That win should have an asterisk. Same with Mandaloun. He did not cross the finish line first. The DQ of Medina Spirit was overage related, not for interference.
Regardless, each crop is different including the path to the derby and the competition they face.
Steve’s observation/comments about the Thoro-graph numbers is very interesting. The combination of stamina and SPEED is the key to finding the hidden gems every year.
Bill Dawson,
You highlighted River Thames a colt unknown to me. I reviewed the video of his debut win and couldn’t find anything that I considered a negative. He is a very nice colt that is a bit on the small side.
His ML of 7/5 has scared me off as I am a longshot hunter. I have taken a fancy to another colt likewise previously unknown to me. That colt is the Mark Casse trained Souper Times.
I have nothing but maximum respect for the colt’s sire Not This Time who seems to be the Giant’s Causeway stallion that will carry on his legacy in the USA. His unraced Unbridled’s Song dam make him even more appealing to me as I am a big fan of unraced dams. They are amongst group of broodmares that have produced the exceptional champion of the past.
Souper Times won on debut like River Thames, but his win was record on turf over 8F, the distance of the AOC both are contesting. River Thames might have an advantage with his debut win being on dirt.
Can Souper Times successfully transition to dirt? His pedigree suggest he should. But one never knows. He therefore has two major challenges. A talented ML favorite and a new surface.
He is a big athletic looking with lots of legs under him. He appears physically up to the task. But then he might just get outclassed by the Pletcher pupil.
Good luck with River Thames
Counter Point (AKA Coldfacts)
You mentioned that you’re a “longshot hunter”. Souper Times is listed at 9/2 on the morning line. Do you believe a horse that’s listed at 9/2 is considered a “longshot”?
With respect to River Thames, his speed figures were quite impressive for his maiden win, which are as follows: Equibase 105, Beyer 94 and a Thoro-Graph number of “5”, which Steve Haskin pointed out as a “Big Number”.
Good luck with your “longshot”, Souper Times.
Hey Counter Point (AKA Coldfacts)
River Thames won by open lengths, under wraps. Your “longshot” Souper Times” closed at 5/2. He should probably stick to grass races. Just my opinion.
Well, I missed with Souper Times, but I connected with Gate to Wire 13/1.
See my post regarding Street Cry as a dam sire.
Yes, I remember that Steet Cry post. Congratulations on your selection of Gate to Wire, in the Swale Stakes. I hope you cashed a big ticket at those 13-1 odds.
“Our next TC winner”. Hardly Feb yet. Lol
let me guess. you have future wagers on ‘All Others’
Thank you for replying to yet another comment directed at me.
Unbelievable!
This message was meant for Mike.
My reply last week regarding Fort Marcy wasn’t directed your way. Switch off the narcissism for a bit…..if possible. MY COMMENT is directed at predict, NOT YOU!!!
Regarding Barnes and the question Is he a “beast”? I can understand this sentiment after the way he ran, but I would prefer to think of him as exuding class. I love the fact that Steve pointed out that he has four Triple Crown winners in his first five generations, just an amazing fact; and do you think that might be why he exudes so much class? And Bob Baffert had this to say about him, “I’m happy for Amr(Zedan), he had to really stretch to get this horse,” said Baffert. “When you have clientele like that it is everything. This horse looked like that as a yearling, he looks like (broodmare sire) American Pharoah body wise. He has a lot of American Pharoah in him, and it worked out.”
I just loved Barnes’ dam sire, American Pharoah, and after his last race and what Bob had to say, well I think I’ll just sit back and enjoy the ride he will take us on; Our next Triple Crown winner!
How did he run?
Did he exude more class than East Avenue?
Has he provided a Wow! moment similar to that which Sovereignty provided in his Street Sense win?
What exactly differentiates him from the rest of the crop?
I am my no means trying to be provocative. But I just cannot see what the colt has done that has been so exceptional.
He hasn’t.
kmi’s 10+1
JOKER’s WILD Triple Shots Delight
Withers Stakes- 1⅛ Mo Quality
Holy Bull G3- 1¹⁶ Guns Loaded
R.B. Lewis G3- 1m. Citizen Bull
Top 10 MOST WANTED Gun Slingers
1) Citizen Bull
2) East Avenue
3) Chancer McPatrick
4) First Resort
5) Poster
6) Ferocious
7) Journalism
8) Speed King
9) Sovereignty
10) Barnes
+1 Young Gun
Disco Time
*Gun Slingers Gazette*
MO QUALITY has mixed-it-up every tussle, proclaiming ‘I’m your huckleberry’ in the Withers.
The Holy Bull G3 presents the comeback of #6 FEROCIOUS sporting shades against the up n coming my GUNS r LOADED. This promises to be a Showdown!
Most Wanted gunfighter #1 CITIZEN BULL warms up for his title defense in the RB Lewis G3. It should set him up for the ‘Good, Bad, and Ugly’ gunfighters down the road.
**************
Ranking Update
Previously ranked #4 Gaming, finished 8th in the Southwest G3 and was denied entrance into the local saloon as he completely slid off kmi’s Top 10+1 Most Wanted! Talking bout fallin on hard times! When things go bad it’s tough all over! Gunrunner Speed King shot his way into a ‘Fistful of $$$’ and onto the #8 spot with his victory.
Rated By Merit was dropped from the +1 Young Gun due to inactivity, replaced by Lecomte G3 winner hootenanny Disco Time. Until then … bottoms up!
I enjoy you presentation.
Thanks, appreciate it.
Now that Donut God has scratched out of the Swale Stakes, Gunmetal and Grayscale will be fighting it out for the win, IMO. With field reduced to six entrants, I’ll key Gunmetal and Grayscale on top, in the first two slots, with the remaining four underneath in the 3rd and 4th slots, in superfecta p/w wager. That is: 6,7/ 6,7/ ALL/ All. Cost: $24.00
In addition, I’ll flip that over, and use All in the first two slots, with Gunmetal and Grayscale underneath, in the 3rd and 4th. That is: ALL/ ALL/ 6,7/ 6,7. Cost$24.00.
It’s unlikely that Gunmetal and Grayscale will finish 3rd and 4th, but you never know, anything can happen in a horse race. If a couple of bombers finish first and second and the two favorites finish 3rd and 4th, the payoff would be quite lucrative.
Safe trips to all.
My $24 goes to:
6-Gunmetal/ 1st
1-Macho Music/3-Maitre D/5-Gate to Wire/7-Grayscale
Good luck and safe trips to everyone!
Filoso another half mile work—and like Journalism his 2nd work is faster than his first….
It’s amazing how differently race performances are viewed.
Steve mentioned Treaty of Rome’s fast-closing NK defeat in the MMM.
In reviewing the video of the MMM I cannot concur with our gracious’ host take on Treaty of Rome.
Gulfstream Park features a 1Turn Mile. Usually, 1Turn miles are faster than 2Turn miles. Some of the fastest 1Turn mile times have been recorded at Belmont, Aqueduct and CD
The final time for the MMM was 1:38.87 on a surface listed as fast. That final time has to be considered pedestrian for a 1Turn mile.
Guns Loaded strides were shortening rapidly in the last 1/2F. Treaty of Rome who appears to have a turf action, wasn’t closing fast but was rather gaining steadily on the rapidly tiring Guns Loaded.
What was on display was a classic case of one race entrant tiring badly and an also tiring chaser with more energy, appearing be closing fast. The closure the gap was due primarily to the leader tiring faster than the chaser and not late closing speed.
The Equibase figure assigned to Treaty of Rome was 71. How fast was he closing in a race completed in a pedestrian time
Treaty Of Rome is ranked at #9 and undefeated Poster is ranked at #13. The 9F Remsen involves 2Turns and by extension involves a 2Turn mile. The split for 8F in the Remsen was 1:37.77 a full second faster than the 1Turn 8F MMM.
Poster was assigned an Equibase figure of 97 for his win. That’s 26 points above the 71 assigned to Treaty Of Roome for his MMM runner-up finish.
How can their rankings (#9 & #13) be so significantly different?
Counter Point, I am responding to your analysis of Golden Afternoon posted this morning. I also was intrigued by his somewhat “sneaky” good outing in the Lecomte.
I thought I was the only one, not seeing any comments on him by others.
Also agree on your analysis of the track condition/slow time. I enjoy your comments and tend to agree with a good share of them. Keep posting!
Your kind comments are appreciated.
Thank you Steve.
You mentioned two of my favorites,
Coal Battle at number 14 and Burnham Square, Knocking on the Door.
Good news, today, Sovereignty worked 4 furlongs, in 49.20, at PPTC for William Mott.
Currently, this Into Mischief colt is my top prospect on the Derby trail.
Yes Bill, especially since Rated By Merit (one I also think highly of) is off the Triple Crown trail with bone bruising. Yesterday I thought I read that Donut God was to be scratched from the Swale, probably on the drf. Now I can’t find it, and he’s still listed in the entries. I know he’s a key horse in one of your bets for that race.
Yes, it IS confirmed that Donut God will scratch. David Grening reported it yesterday in story on the Swale.
Thanks for the heads up Ms Blacktype.
Now, it’s back to the drawing board.
Ferocious – KEE futurity – 2nd by 5 1/2l – Final 1:43.17; Ferocious final time 1:44 plus.
Ferocious – BCJ – 5th by 61/2L – Final time 1:43.07′ Ferocious final time 1:44 plus
Ferocious appears to be a 1:44 plus entrant for 8 1/2F. But of interest, his opponents appear to be the same with a few at the 1:45 level. See below.
Kinetic Control -last out MSW winner 81/2F -1:44.08
Tappan Street -Last out MSW winner 7F -1:23. Extrapolated 8 1/2F time -low 1:44 plus
Guns Loaded – last out winner MMM 8F -1:38.87- Extrapolated final time 1:45 plus
He’s Not Joking – last out KJCS 8th by 10L- Final time 1:43.01 extrapolated time 1:45+
Burning Glory- MSW 8 1/2F; 2nd by 1 1/2L – Final time 1:43.92 Extrapolated time 1:44+
Burnham Square Last out MSW winner 8 1/2F – 144.31
Of the above, Tappan Street seems to be the most likely 1:43+ entrant.
He’s Not Joking was very fast over 81/2F on the AW at Woodbine. His first start on dirt was not preceded by any reported works on dirt. There are several reported works on dirt ahead of the HB. A top rider has been retained. He could run well 2nd time on dirt as he is better prepared.
If I was forced to choose the likely winner, I would select Kinetic Control. The Not This time colt has excellent tactical speed that is ideal for an entrant drawn at post #1. He will be able to use his natural speed to secure a good position heading into the first turn. I consider him resolute enough to lead from gate to wire.
The Holy Bull appears to be a good betting race with Ferocious trying to regain his Saratoga form now that he is free from the manacles of Chancer McPatrick, East Avenue and Citizen Bull.
Ferocious will be the odds on favorite on the power of his three respectable Grade One performances. The son of Flatter will be tough to beat sporting blinkers for the first time and will be a true barometer to the talents of Tappan Street, Burning Glory, Guns Loaded and Burnham Square.
The sons of Into Mischief, Tappan Street and Burning Glory (music to Bill’s ears), have shown credible raw talent but, curiously, both had problems changing leads in their last wins.
Tappan Street was really impressive winning on debut clocking 1:23 2/5 for 7 furlongs at Gulfstream. Just for reference, White Abarrio ran second in the 7-furlong Mr. Prospector Stakes (less than 3 hours later) in 1:22 3/5 (equivalent to about 4 lengths better than Tappan Street).
Luis Saez had to work hard to put Tappan Street into the race coming to the last turn. The Brad Cox trainee changed lead very late but when he did was quick to put up two lengths in front of very stubborn front runner. Luis Saez left the mount of Guns Loaded to ride Tappan Street in the Holy Bull Stakes; and I believe he will prove to be right this Saturday evening.
The other Into Mischief, Burning Glory, is also an imposing last-out winner. Bill Mott had the Juddmonte homebred running three times at Churchill last year showing steady and significant progress each time. Winning at a mile in 1:35 2/5 was very encouraging considering that he never went to his right lead in the homestretch; but still he was able to put his neck in front at the finish line. The rest of the field was left 11 lengths behind.
Burning Glory with Tyler Gafallione up at a ML of 8 to 1 is the best betting value in the Holy Bull.
Both Tappan Street and Burning Glory are well-balanced racers with powerful hindquarters as you would expect from their 6-time champion sire. If they are able to change leads on cue then their long and powerful strides will be way more efficient going forward.
Burnham Square is an intriguing homebred gelding who has run two-turn races twice looking very good both times. His maiden win at 1 1/16 mile by 9 lengths in 1:44 1/5 should not be overlooked as it proved his liking of Gulfstream while upholding a reassuring upswing trend in form.
Burnham Square and Tappan Street won the same day but the field that Burnham defeated was of better collective quality.
Burnham Square’s third dam is the Secretariat mare Listen Well who might not be in the same league as her more heralded sisters Secrettame, Terlingua and Weekend Surprise but she was a great producer nevertheless. Listen Well is the dam of two-time Grade 1 winner Listening, Grade 2 winner Beautiful Noise, and two-time Grade 2 placed Solar Echo among other 5 winners… Janis Whitham developed a body of good mares that have produced superior runners Afluent, Mea Domina, Fort Larned, McCraken and Grade 2 winner Linda (the dam of Burnham Square).
It is so heartening to see another Secretariat mare in the family of talented horses.
Going back to handicapping, I am considering playing the following $24-Superfecta box:
2-Ferocious/3-Tappan Street/6-Burning Glory/7-Burnham Square … expecting an ROI of at least 5 to 1…
Let’s hope every one runs his race this Saturday…
Hi Nelson
Thank you for posting such an insightful, thought-provoking comment on the Holy Bull Stakes. I was encouraged by your take on Tappan Street and Burning Glory, by hot sire Into Mischief, who as you well know, I’m very high on. I’m sure you noticed that Steve has three Into Mischief colts ranked at #2, #4 and #6 on his Week One List.
The fact that Luis Saez will remain aboard Tappan Street is encouraging, but with top rider, Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard Guns Loaded, that bodes well for his connections. However, I’m not convinced Guns Loaded wants more than a mile. In the MMM Stakes, he barely held off the fast-closing Treaty of Rome, who made it to #9 on Steve’s list.
From my perspective, Ferocious is quite obviously the class of the Holy Bull field, but coming off a three-month layoff, is he at the top of his game? I’m not so sure.
That said, I indeed to play two superfecta wagers, which are as follows:
I’ll key Tappan Street and Burning Glory on top, in the first two slots, with ALL underneath in the 3rd and 4th slots. Cost: $40.00
That is: 3,6/ 3,6/ ALL/ ALL
In addition, I’ll key the favorite, Ferocious on top, with Tappan Street, Guns Loaded, Burning Glory and Burnham Square underneath in the 2nd, 3rd and 4th slots.
That is: 2/ 3,4,6,7/ 3,4,6,7/3,4,6,7. Cost: $24.00
In the Swale, I’ll key Donut God on top, with Gunmetal and Grayscale underneath, in a fairly large trifecta wager.
In the Robert B. Lewis, Citizen Bull is clearly the horse to beat, IMO. No bets in that race.
The Withers is of no interest to me.
Please don’t forget the 7th race, on the Holy Bull undercard. River Thames could be a monster in the making.
Good luck, Nelson.
Your bets are very well thought covering the best horses on paper.
Again, Luis Saez’s choice of Tappan Street over Guns Loaded is very telling. After winning the Mucho Macho Man with Guns Loaded Luis Saez told trainer Jose D’Angelo that the son of Gun Runner was never letting the fast closing Treaty of Rome pass when he saw him eye to eye. The jockey praised Guns Loaded as a potential Classic horse. So, if Saez was so high on Guns Loaded imagine what his views are of Tappan Street’s talent. In theory the jockey should know better than any handicapper … but they are often wrong as well!
We shall see…
Yes Bill… I will be watching with great interest the performance of River Thames against Tux… Indeed Pletcher is in great need of a monster in his barn given his current drought of talented 3-year-olds.
Good luck to you as well!
Nelson
I agree, Saez must be very high on Tappan Street to choose him over Gun Loaded. As you mentioned, it is telling.
Tomorrow should be a great racing day and could provide a clearer picture on a few prospects moving forward on the Derby trail.
Nelson, Burnham Square is one of my favorites.
Yes Lynda… I remember your comment about a gelding winning the Derby this year.
The son of Liam’s Map is the one with the best progression in form for his Stakes debut…!
Stret Cry was a phenomenal sire. However, he isn’t seen in the same light as a broodmare sire. But some might differ that he isn’t as effective as a broodmare sire given, he is the dam sire of the brilliant Romantic Warrior (23-18-3-0)
Despite the presence of the mighty Godolphin breeding program in the US. There are not a lot of Street Cry mares feature in pedigrees.
The focus on the Lecomte was without a doubt the slow final time. There was no mention of the performance of the 4th place finisher Golen Afternoon who was making his dirt debut after his 3 previous career starts being on turf.
He was very close to the pace throughout and showed a lot of resolve in the lane to stay in touch with the top 3. To finish 2L off the winner in a dirt debut on a sloppy/sealed surface has to be considered encouraging going forwards.
Golden Afternoon is out of the Street Cry mare Afternoon whose dam Acoma was sired by Empire Maker and out of a Danzig mare. Both Street Cry and Empire Maker should be a serious source of stamina for Golden Afternoon. I consider him one to watch.
The Todd Pletcher trained Gate to Wire is an entrant in the Swale at a ML of 12/1. He is by the red-hot Munnings and out of a Street Cry mare. His 2nd and 3rd dam sire are the influential Northern Dander line stallions Danehill and Sadlers Wells.
This colt has made 4 starts to date including one on turf & AW but none have been beyond 6F. He won on debut over 5 1/2F in good time of 1:02 plus. But despite being restricted to sprints. I cannot see a colt out of a Street Cry mare being a genuine short sprinter.
Gate to Wire’s last out performance resulted is a 5th place finish by 4L in an All Weather 5F competed in 56.88. That 5th must be considered an excellent effort by a non-sprinter. He was closing in the stretch suggesting the need for more ground.
Munning has been a hot stallion with a lot of winners recently. Street Cry was such a phenomenal sire that a few of his mares should carry some of his brilliance.
Gate to Wire two best performances have been on dirt to which he will return for the Swale, I am making him my main entrant for the race as his price is right and with highest regards for his Street Cry dam.
I find it surprising that there was difficulty separating Built and Disco time.
Disco Time had a more unfavorable draw; lost and/or yielded ground when dropping in from post 10 and being 8W on the final turn. These trip negatives provide Built with a trip advantage.
Built merely had to navigate the open lane between tiring opponents. He had by far the better trip and couldn’t repel Disco Time close to the line.
When an entrant records a victory in spite of adversities. What is on display is a differentiation between the extraordinary and the ordinary.
The slow final time for the Lecomte has received a lot of attention. I contend this time shouldn’t have been the subject of any debate but rather dismissed.
It is obvious that when the gates opened for the Lecomte the Sloppy/Sealed surface was at its most demanding. No thoughts seem to have been given to the fact that the surface wasn’t same as when faster times were being recorded earlier.
Disco Time-
Won 7F at Ellis Park in 1:23.88
Won 8F at Cd in 1:34.98
Built –
Won 7f at KEE in 1:23.9
Won 8 1/2f at Fg in 1:43 .53. (8F split 1:37.27)
The 8F split in the Lecomte was 1:40.09
Let’s add 2 seconds to Disco Time’s 1Turn mile of 1:35 to make it 1:37. Is it to be assumed that the colt regressed by 3 seconds, to a 1:40 mile in the Lecomte? That is unthinkable!
The same equation can be used for Built whose mile split in the Gun Runner was 1:37. Did he regress 3 seconds to a 1:40 mile? That is likewise unthinkable I
The Lecomte time should be dismissed and shouldn’t be used in any evaluation for ranking or otherwise.
Time can be deceptive. Remember Always Dreaming?
Journalism worked:48.8 today—sane time as Nysos ( now five..)..
(I guess he’s only four..just seems older..)..
Matthew, Nysos had a work today at Santa Anita. Still no sign of Maymun though.
Yes, thanks Davids….Nysos has sporadically worked this year—his last work before today was in Octocer (just one work)…I know nada, about Maymum, whom I liked a lot…
Thanks Matthew, you live in hope these days.
Is there any report/information about the health issues that kept Nysos sidelined for so long?
Does Journalism remind you of Vino Rosso?
I’m going with Madaket Road to upset the other 2 more fancied horses in the R.Lewis. I am a bit biased because I bet MR at 47-1 in KDFW3. Would love to see MR in the winners circle with F.Dettori doing his famed flying dismount. He has been training lights out for this and he will be sitting off a likely fast pace with Rodriguez and CB and Clock Tower all going for the lead. MR should be flying in the stretch . Baffert believes he will like the 2 turns with the way he has been training. F.Dettori may have just found his KY Derby mount. I will single MR in my P4. On s side note, glad to see Journalism working a strong 4F in his preparation for the MAR. 1 San Felipe. Journalism is my 52-1 bomb 💣 from KDFW2 back In December.
Now the fun begins rreading yr colums and picks
I have a few first glass-of-wine picks for Saturday’s 3YO races.
.
Swale: I ought to pick Gunmetal, but for some reason I prefer Grayscale. Both colts on the black to white spectrum, so a toss-up. Neither is a homebred,
Holy Bull: Between Ferocious and Burnham Square, I’ll go with the homebred Burnham Square. Let’s see if the stats Davids et al quoted for homebred Derby winners and champions also applies to prep races.
Withers: No true preference. I’ll let the winner impress me, or not.
Robert Lewis: Likely to be a BB trifecta, but I would love to see either Madaket Road or Rodriquez upset champion Citizen Bull.
Ms Blacktype it’s only a few hours before Friday night’s fun with champagne here so, before getting on with the drudgery of domestic duties and exercise, a quick glance over the Derby prep races.
Swale – hoping for Greyscale to replicate or improve on his previous start; Holy Bull -hoping to see a more professional Ferocious for 2025; Robert B. Lewis – continuing improvement from Madaket Road a win is not the main objective here; Withers – pass, good luck whoever wins.
A dazzling performance by one or two of these colts would be fantastic. Here’s hoping and good luck to all.
All good thoughts! I hope you enjoyed AUSTRALIAN champagne Friday night. A brunch place I used to frequent in New York used it to make Aperol spritzes. It was delicious, but I never could find any in a store.
Ha ha Snap!! Ms Blacktype we make Aperol and Campari spritzes or Gin & tonics as aperitifs before the French champagne. Jazz until it’s time to drift off…
Good afternoon Steve,
Weeks before the calendar turns, I begin hoping that all is well with Steve Haskin. I ask myself, “How’s Steve’s health?”; “How’s his family’s health?”; “How’s his energy level?”; “He’s not going to retire the Derby Rankings is he?”. Then weeks of anticipation go by, and after day after day of clicking on Secretariat.com, the first rankings pop up. I want to thank you, thank you, thank you, on behalf of all fans of the sport for continuing with your weekly analysis on the road to the Derby.
That being said, I do not comment on a weekly basis, in fact, I probably post a comment once a year. However, I am a full participant and believer in the Church of Haskin. Each and every year, you always mention a horse that was way off my radar. This year, that horse is Treaty of Rome. I’m one to rely on pedigree a bit and when i look at this colt, I see an Uncle Mo colt that has more stamina breeding than other Uncle Mo’s. He has an unusual pedigree for sure.
Most will think this is creepy, but I am glued to every word you say on Byk’s show. One of my many goals is to get to meet you. Even speaking with you via phone would be a joy. Anyway, please continue to enhance the loyalists with your excellent writing and analysis. Just know you have thousands of fans everywhere.
Mr. K
Nice post, Mr. K. It hadn’t occurred to me before now, but yes we are on a sort of religious pilgrimage, aren’t we? The Church in Search of the Best Horse (on the first Saturday in May).
Hope I haven’t shocked or offended any one.
Wow! Mr K I don’t know where to begin. Your post blew me away. I can’t tell you how .much I appreciate it and to know you’re a member of my flock. Lol . I’m sure we can arrange to talk during the Derby trail.
Steve,
Just wanted to let you know that you acknowledging my post made my week. Have a wonderful weekend!
Mr. K
Counter Point (AKA Coldfacts)
This past Wednesday, I posted a comment on Curl and Hold, by Curlin, out of Beholder, by Henny Hughes in which I mentioned the following, “to state this colt is the personification of breeding at the highest order would be an understatement”.
You countered that with the following, “History reflects such matings rarely produce champions”.
I’m not sure who coined the phrase, “Breed the best with the best”, it may have been Penny Chenery, the gracious owner of Secretariat, but I would think the breeding of Curl and Hold reflects that belief.
Before you dismiss Curl and Hold, why not give him a chance to see what he can accomplish on the racetrack.
Have a great day Counter Point (AKA Coldfacts).
Didn’t you state that previously the other day?
Why do you feel this need to chime in on comments that are not directed at you?
In addition, you attempted to dictate policy on this site, scolding others for posting comments not related to the article at hand. Give it a rest Mike.
Thanks.
So the individual who told myself and Zany to leave wasn’t dictating policy? Other day you chided Counter regarding his handicapping skills. I’m only giving an opinion, which is my right to do such.
I appreciate your follow up as this provides an opportunity to expand on my response.
Subject to correction, I do believe it was the owner of the great Native Dancer that coined the phrase “Breed the best to the best and hope for the best”
I am a student of history and use it correctly or incorrectly as a guide. Based on history I harbor no optimism that any horse whose sire and dam was HOTY, is likely to emerge as a champion.
Can there be an exception? Certainly! However, this breeding model has been tried repeatedly with little to no success. If the this is model was either proven or even occasionally successful. There would be a litany of progenies with sires and dams whose resumes reflect multiple G1 wins.
When the like of Rachel and Zenyattta were retired I stated that neither was likely to foal a champion. I was attacked for my pessimism. Can a champion produced from any of the two mares be cited?
Mares with Beholder’s resume are not the kinds that have produced the champions of the past. This colt was bred for its potential sale’s ring appeal based on the achievement of its sire and dam. Knowledgeable buyers wouldn’t pay $4M for such yearling as the prospect of it being a champion is remote, based exclusively on history.
There have been two unraced Betting Interest in the 2025 KY Derby Future Pool. Both are from the Barn of BB. Curl And hold isn’t one of the two. What can be extrapolated from the aforementioned? He probably hasn’t been a standout during training.
I am by no means an incurable pessimist. But I assume the role of highlighting what I consider to be either pertinent or relevant to an issue.
In 2019 a record setting $3.6M Curlin colt was purchased by Coolmore and sent to BB. He was assigned the name Cezanne (French Post-Impressionist Painter). That is certainly a better name than Curl And Hold for an expensive purchase.
In a previous post I asserted that Mr. Zedan should secure the services of a new bloodstock agent. The $3.5M Bernardini colt Hejazi is even more expensive than the celebrated Barnes. Hejazi has won a MSW and an AOC to date.
The prospect of Mr. Zedan securing a champion via a muti million-dollar purchase is extremely remote.
I can only respond by saying, stay tuned for Curl and Hold’s debut race. You just might change your opinion.
BTW, Curl and Hold seems like a suitable name, which is a reflection of his sire and dam.
Something else to keep in mind, Beholder’s dam, Leslie’s Lady was the dam of Into Mischief and Mendelssohn.
Bottom line, dismiss Curl and Hold at your own peril.
STEVE This is a great read on your top picks and the also other ones. Steve I know its and outdated do your ever use romans dosage system any more. THANKS FOR ALL YOU DO. ROGER
Thank you Roger. No I don’t pay any attention since Steve Roman stopped adding chef de race sires and it became antiquated.
Thanks Steve. Good stuff. However, my list is short and sweet. And this is based upon today (1-30) and just today. Obviously, things could drastically change in the next few days…
1. Citizen Bull-still the champ and don’t see anything that has changed that as of now.
2. Barnes-already won at Churchill and a 94 Beyer in the San Vicente
3. Journalism-knows how to win but just in Southern California
4. Chancer McPatrick-two time Grade 1 winner apparently didn’t like Southern California
5. East Avenue-wins in Kentucky but also didn’t like Southern California
East Avenue almost fell on the break…it had nothing to do with california..
Remember this one – Opera Ballo
Do you mean Opera Ballo by Ghaiyyath? He’ll be pointed to the 2,000 Guineas if he keeps improving.
R.B. Lewis G3 1mi.
1)Madaket Road 120lbs 5/2
2)Citizen Bull 124lbs 6/5
3)Rodriguez 120lbs 7/5
4)Clock Tower 124lbs 10/1
5)Valentines Candy 120lbs 30/1
Mike Relva/ Matt W
There is a colt in the Holy Bull that was not highlighted but has captured my interest due to similarities to Mine That Bird.
I have provided the derails below and would appreciate your opinions regarding whether he is to be regarded as he is live longshot. This is assuming the wagering renders him as one
Mine That Bird –
Grey Stakes 8 1/2F (AW; Woodbine) 1st in 1:44.45
Breeder Cup Juvenile 8 1/2 (AL SA Park) last by 9 3/4L
Time between Grey Stakes and BCJ 20 days
Borderland Derby 8 1/2F (Dirt Debut) 2nd by NK in 1:43.96)
He’s Not Joking
Grey Stakes 8 1/2F (ALL Woodbine) 1st 1n 1:43.18 (Pending verification – NSR)
Kentucky Jockey Club (Dirt debut) 8 of 9 by 10 1/2L
Time between Grey Stakes and KJCS 24 days
Holy Bull – Pending
Both horses broke their maiden in their respective 2nd start. MTB in a maiden claimer and HNJ in a MSW.
Both horses’ pedigree reflects a strong leaning towards dirt
Mine That Bird was beaten by 9L in his first start in the USA, albeit on a surface which he recorded his then 4 career wins. He’s Not Joking was beaten 10 in his UAS debut. Both 2YO contested their USA debut off relatively sort rest i.e., 20 & 24 days.
The second USA start and dirt debut for MTB yielded a 2nd place finish by a NK in the Borderland Derby over 8 1/2F. HNJ’s 2nd USA start is pending in the 8 1/2F Holy Bull.
He’s Not Joking might not be a Canadian 2YO champion. However, his resume indicates he was a faster 2YO than MTB. His Grey Stakes win (1:43.18) is likely to be a NSR and very noteworthy. Neither Equibase nor any other source have reflected his final time as a NRS. However, the previous SR 1:43.20 was recorded by Black Cash (1997).
We may very well have the fastest 2YO over 8 1/2F on Canadian AL, contesting the Holy Bull, off full rest with several reported works on dirt. If this colt can replicate his Grey Stakes performance in his 2nd and better prepared start on dirt. He must have a shot to upset.
I’m not sure if the Santa Anita “Pro Ride” was similar to the Woodbine Tapeta—even of the surface was the same—weather temps could change the surface…..
As always Counter your research shines through. Great comparison between MTB and HNJ. Visited Mine That Bird six years ago at owner’s ranch in NM.
Hello Steve – I will be rooting for Madaket Riad to pull the upset in the R.Lewis. I bet MR at 47-1 in KDFW3. I bet MR because of his impressive MSW win coming off of the pace and because he’s by successful router Quality Road. I am a bit concerned because a DRF analyst said MR Dam side is sprinty and not sure how far he wants to go. Hearing this makes me worry that he may not want the 1 1/4 KY Distance. What’s your opinion of Madaket Road Steve, and his chances to do well as the distances increase based on his pedigree.
Rodriguez had Rank alongside…:46 1/5 an honest pace—he “floated” home by seven lengths, 1:35 4/5—that’s plenty fast—Not certain he’s going to run, Sat—I know Bob wants to run Madaket Road and Citizen Bull, he might have entered Rodriguez just to make the race fill…..I heard they may be fashioning a trip east, for Rodriguez….
If Rodriguez goes east…get ready for something big—Rodriguez is a good horse..
Rodriguez would be a great fit for Gulfstream configuration… I would like to see him in the Florida Derby…
Just for fun I went through the past 30 Eclipse Award winners in the Three Year Old Male Division category.
13 were homebreds and 17 were bought at the sales.
Incase you were wondering what the numbers were in just the past 21 years that Nelson was referring to.
10 were homebreds and 11 were bought at the sales.
How many Kentucky Derby winners went on to win the Eclipse Award that year in the past 21 year that Nelson has referred to?
The answer is 7. Twice has many didn’t win the Kentucky Derby but went on to win the Eclipse Award. Statistics, statistics. Ha ha
The figures for champion older dirt male are equally eye-catching.
Since 1970 (55 years) a homebred was named champion OLDER horse in 33 years (60% strike rate). If you discount the last 7 years you will see 32 out of 48 (67%).
We see memorable names in that illustrious list of (older) homebred stars (Fort Marcy, Ack Ack, Riva Ridge, Forego, Affirmed, Cigar, Skip Away, Tiznow, Ghostzapper, Wise Dan, California Chrome and Gun Runner).
There are other homebred older champions not in the Hall of Fame yet but still evoking great feats like Turkoman, Ferdinand, Criminal Type, Pleasant Tap, Mineshaft and Cody’s Wish.
Just wanted to make use of this excel table I have been updating in my computer…
Thanks Nelson, great work. It would be interesting to see how the withdrawal of high performing 3 year old colts to stud, early, impact the older champion division but I’m not encouraging you to delve into this. I know you have collected massives of data over the years.
Have you ever used ChatGPT or alike to analyze the data you have? I’ve found ChatGPT a wonderful tool.
I have not used ChatGPT for Horse Racing topics or to process figures. Some basic stats and math functions in excel are more than enough for that…
I found out that the AI(?) tool is just a glorified web browser when it comes to Horse Racing data/information…
To answer your question thoroughly I just placed some queries about Cigar…
For example, I just asked ChatGPT if Cigar was homebred and it threw the following:
“No. Cigar was not a hombebred horse. He was bred by Warren and Susan P. Williamson in Kentucky but he was not bred by the owners who raced him. Cigar was purchased as a yearling at the 1991 Keeneland July Select Sale for $50,000 by
Allen E. Paulson, who went on to race him under the colors of his stable, Allen’s Inc.”
This obviously contradicts horse racing databases like Equibase and reports in newspapers and specialized magazines. Furthermore, when I asked ChatGPT What are the best horses bred by Allen E. Paulson it gave this SELF-contradictory but true answer:
“Allen A. Paulson was a highly successful thoroughbred owner and breeder, and he was known for producing some of the most remarkable horses in racing history. Some of his best-bred and most famous horses include:
1. Cigar
Cigar is undoubtedly the crown jewel of Allen E. Paulson’s breeding and racing legacy. …
Also mentioned Saratoga Six, Sunshine Forever, Anjina, Reraise and Leaping Forward as his top five runners.
ChatGPT failed to mention Blushing John, Escena, and Eliza in that list though…
Anyway, the so called AI engines rely on people feeding it with the right answers for millions of possible prompts. It seems to me like not enough work has been done about Horse Racing topics…
I have not tried deepseek which might be worthwhile given all the fuzz about its capabilities. But I doubt that computers are able to replace the experience and knowledge of brilliant turf journalists and historians…
*Correction: Blushing John was bred by North Ridge Farm owned by Frank Groves in Kentucky…
but Fraise, Azeri and others escaping me should be mentioned by ChatGPT as superior horses bred by Paulson …
That’s right Nelson, with ChatGPT you really have to prompt it to exactly what you want. We’ve found it’s fairly good with updating policies and procedures, and some simplistic excel spreadsheets that took time but not complexity.
No, haven’t touched deepseek either yet.
Well Davids… It seems like the engine learns at speed light speed… I just posted the same question about Cigar being a homebred and this time ChatGPT gave the right answer…
Those technologies will eventually become almost perfect picking the collective intelligence of every single field …
Yes Nelson, that’s exactly what we’ve found. ChatGPT can ‘write’ ha ha very good essays with minimal amount of information but of course without references but you can see how students can ‘program’ ChatGPT to construct essays then they fill in the references. Those who mark papers/essays haven’t the time to confirm that the reference is correct or not.
Hello Steve: Excellent first list of Derby hopefuls. I haven’t been following this seasons horses but I plan to start paying more attentionn now.
I just love your comprehensive list of Derby contenders. You explain things so eloquently. You are the “master” of the pen. It is more likely then not, that the Derby winner will come from one of these equine beauties on your list.
One quick question, did you read the article posted on Google on Belinda Stronach;s comments about the future of horse racing in Florida. I am curious on what you thoughts are.
Thank you…………..
The performance of homebred runners in the Kentucky Derby has been outstanding the last 21 years.
One tends to think that the romantic era of the 60’s and 70’s when the figure of breeder/owner patricians was the norm, is all but gone. But since 1980 about half of the Derby winners are homebreds.
Since Smarty Jones 13 homebred horses (62%) have won the Kentucky Derby. What makes these figures look astonishing is the numerical disadvantage of the homebred against all the horses sold at public auctions.
The most popular Thoroughbreds this Century are homebreds (Smarty Jones, Barbaro, California Chrome and American Pharoah). An we are not talking about interntional mega operations like Godolphin, Juddmonte or Coolmore producing those heroes… yet.
Last year there were only 5 homebred runners in the Derby and guess who won it … that’s right … a homebred!
So, what is the magic about the homebred? Why are they so prominent in the Kentucky Derby?
Is it that you have the freedom to choose the right stallion for your mare? Is the substantial quality of your own horse nurtured by the unique passion, dedication and love he receive? Is the system supporting your own horse (farms, caretakers, trainer, etc.) better familiarized with his background? Is the potential quality latent in the body of mares you have built over time ready to explode anytime?
What is your take on the success of homemade recipes to win the Derby?
Just for the fun of it I am listing the homebred hopefuls in Steve’s first ranking:
Aviator Gui
East Avenue
Sovereignty
First Resort
Poster
Treaty of Rome
Disco Time
Patch Adams
Rated by Merit
Burning Glory
Burnham Square
Omaha Omaha
And I am adding TUX and a super promising New Yorker named SAND DEVIL in this selected list.
This is a wonderful post, Nelson and spot on. The reasons are those you mentioned. I always look for homebreds. To me being born, raised, broke, and trained on the same farm was the formula for all the legendary supestars of the past., as was the continuance of the bloodlines. I believe the growth of the 2 year old sales has contiibuted to the decline of the breed, asking young horses to do things their still fragile bones werent ready to withstand. Thanks for addressing the subject.
Thanks for your feedback Steve.
We are in agreement about the underlying reasons for the success of homebreds …
On the other hand, I always wonder if Perry Martin and Steve Coburn were just lucky in bringing California Chrome of if there is some mystic involved in that feat…
Also, if my memory serves well … was John Gunter very close to keep Justify to make the TC champion another superior homebred?
Nelson, the Gunters didn’t really want to sell either Vino Rosso or Justify. Tanya Gunter was in tears when Vino Rosso was sold.
That scene is what I remember reading somewhere… Thanks for the reminder Davids.
Nelson I’m acquainted with Steve Coburn. Interesting individual.
Mr. Haskin, do you think Sovereignty will work this week?
Great post, Nelson. Ever since Steve pointed out how successful homebreds are in the Derby I’ve been adding a notation to my personal lists. As for Tux (3rd in the Remsen) and Sand Devil, who’s unbeaten in two starts, they’re both worth watching. Tux is entered in an allowance Saturday at Gulfstream on the Holy Bull undercard, running against River Thames.
Thanks for your reply Ms Blacktype.
Sand Devil could be the next unforgettable New York bred … Linda Rice deserves to be recognized beyond the Big Apple boundaries…
Hey Nelson
Yes indeed, the success of homebred colts winning the Kentucky Derby is hard to ignore. Going back 20 years or so, roughly 60% of the Derby winners were homebred. Your outstanding post served as a reminder on the merits of paying particular attention to homebred colts on this year’s Derby trail.
That said, I would add two additional homebred colts that Steve has on his Week One List.
Journalism, listed at #3, is a Don Alberto homebred.
Bullard, listed at #10, is a Three Chimneys homebred.
It will be interesting to see how Burning Glory, a Juddmonte homebred, performs in the Holy Bull. He looks very enticing at 37-1, a WPS wager might be worth the risk. However, my top pick in the Holy Bull is the other Into Mischief colt, Tappan Street, listed at 2-1.
Good luck Nelson.
Thanks for your reply Bill…
I noticed that the breeders of Bullard and Journalism have kept ownership participation… I took them out since they got sold in public auctions ( $675 and $825K respectively)… however, you can say they are still homebred albeit not at full capacity…
You’re welcome, Nelson.
I can understand your thinking on Bullard and Journalism, relating to their sale at auction.
However, from my perspective, the fact that both colts were originally bred by their respective owners, would qualify Bullard and Journalism as “homebred”. Just my opinion Nelson.
Thanks for the reply.
They are homebreds with a full home behind them…Lol
I was told many decades ago—homered are treated more patiently…that auction bought horses have more “expectations “, with more pressure for early success….I always take note of a homered that wins their debut race—because of what I was told, way back when….
Homebred…..became “homered”….
Thanks for the reply Matthew … You are rigth about patience being key to develop a good race horse.
It seems like the commercial pressure to have a horse prepared in haste for a quick return is harming his longevity and quality as well.
I feel like there is a lot of makeup and cosmetics going on in public auctions whereas your own horse is being developed with real substance and care… who knows? what is clear to me is that is not pure luck driving the success of homebred runners in the Derby or in general for that matter…!
Sandmans’ breeder, Bob Lothenbach, bred to race and would surely still be the owner had he not passed away November 2023. His death was a big loss to Minnesota racing.
Thanks for the information Jerry… It reminds me about Spend a Buck having to be sold after his breeder/owner Row W. Harper went bankrupt… new owner Dennis Diaz paid $12,500 for the son of Buckaroo
Spend a Buck would have been another homebred winner of the Derby…!
Bill, River Thames got a “5” on Thoro-Graph. Big number
Hi Steve
Thank you for providing River Thames’ Thoro-Graph number, it was good to know that you consider it a “big number”. I’m looking forward to his upcoming race on Saturday to see if he can improve on that “5” number.
In addition, I want to thank you for bringing clarity on Grande’s speed figures. Initially, his numbers were a bit confusing, at least from my perspective.
Your hard work is much appreciated.
Bill, 1 more thing about Grande’s equibase 77 rating. The first 4 furlongs went in 46 flat. The second and final 4 furlongs went in at 52, a camel would’ve beat him!
3 additions to futures at Wm Hill:
Treaty of Rome 75-1
Grande 85-1
Tappan St. 100-1
I probably spend too much time reviewing futures odds! It does provide information on where money is going and it is easy to see horses moving up and down if you are looking at it constantly!
But seriously, a big part of my Derby futures is handicapping the prep races and betting the futures prior to the races (sometimes just after!) and hoping my horses outrun their odds…
Tappan Street getting bet, now 60-1
Tappan Street still getting bet; now 40-1
Sandman was 40-1, now 25-1, same as Rodriguez and East Avenue
Steve:
What do you think of the current futures odds with Sandman, East Avenue and Rodriguez the same now?
FYI, here is your top 15, with current futures odds.
1. East Avenue 25-1
2. Sovereignty 18-1
3. Journalism 22-1
4. Citizen Bull 22-1
5. Ferocious 45-1
6. Barnes 10-1
7. First Resort 45-1
8. Keep it Easy 45-1
9. Treaty of Rome 75-1
10. Bullard 33-1
11. Aviator Gui 55-1
12. Chancer 45-1
13. Poster 55-1
14. Coal Battle 55-1
15. Disco Time 22-1
15. Built 28-1
I think 8, 9, 11, 13, and 14 worth betting…
I don’t envy anyone making this list during a time when horses make so few starts.
We don’t really know who these colts and geldings are as three year olds.
With that said, superb job by you, Steve.
Sovereignty and East Avenue would have been my top two had i been forced to rank them. However, Sovereignty’s inactivity makes it hard for me to believe he will make the race.
The one that I wanted to discuss is Aviator Gui, who has been widely ignored, up until your rankings. His Remsen was impressive from my point of view. The colt got trapped behind horses entering the stretch and had to wait for an opening which never materialized. Aviator Gui swung out, setting his sights on Poster. Only to have that one continually bear out, crossing over The Brown charge’s path while clear of him. Get the feeling this is a very determined horse. Final time checked out making him a contender.
Aviator Gui will be taking on a tough group in the Risen Star where we will learn much more. His exclusion from the Futures Pool makes no sense. He travels the same road as Sierra Leone and Zandon, Remsen- Risen Star
PS- Have you seen the size of Treaty Of Rome’s hind quarters, massive.
Sovereignty got a little sick. If he doesnt work this week its time to reevaluate him.
Thank you for the information.
Steve you are simply the best. So many promising horses to follow. From my limited perspective it looks like Sandman might not be the strongest win
candidate for the Derby, but he looks like one of best bets to finish in the top 4 or 5. As always, hard to argue against any at the top of your list. Thanks so much for your analysis!
Thanks Jerry. You sure cant ignore Sandman’s effort last week
..
Bill, I think Steve posted the wrong fractions and final time for Grande probably resulting in a inaccurate T #.
Dealing with alot of numbers, one could easily misread a line while burning the midnight oil that I’m sure Steve does meeting deadlines.
Yes, kmi, that appears to be the problem.
We can’t fault Steve, he has a lot on his plate, to say the least.
Frankly, I’m at a loss on how Thoro-Graph numbers are complied, but you’ve got to hand it to Steve for pointing out the three colts with the best Thoro-Graph numbers in last year’s Derby. Those three, Mystik Dan, Sierra Leone and Forever Young finished 1,2,3.
I’m hopeful Steve will continue to post Thoro-Graph numbers on this year’s Derby prospects. He made a believer out of me on the importance of those numbers in the handicapping process.
Yep, the Thoro-Graph is a very helpful tool. I have no idea how it works too, but when Steve tells us this horse earned a low number, I’M ALL EARS 🙂
The fraction, final time and Thoro-graph number are all correct.
The fraction and final time I used were DRF. PPs. I see Equibase had different figures but their speed figure was still a 94. The Thoro-graph 5 1/2 is correct
Oh you used DRF PP’s. The DRF results and Equibase results match.
When the Drf pps were sent out before the Future Wager. They had a :44 3/5 and 1:36 4/5 final time . It’s possible they were later changed it but I used the PPs they sent out originally. Anyway the Thoro-graph number is more important and that is correct.
ah ok, conundrum solved, and thanks for addressing it.
Those excellent times were the ones I first posted just after the race was ran and I had to apologize for that … now I understand the whole situation!
correct, lead horse splits are:
23.61 46.02 1:11.00 1:24.14 and 1:37.89
Hi Steve
You mentioned Grande received a Thoro-Graph number of “5 1/2” in his first out outperformance for Todd Pletcher. His 77 Equibase Speed figure, and 83 Beyer number seems relatively low in comparison to his Thoro-Graph number or am I misinterpreting the correlation of those speed figures?
River Thames is another Pletcher colt that won at first asking, going 6 furlongs in 1:10.27, drawing off by 4 3/4 lengths. He received an impressive Equibase Speed figure of 105 and a 94 Beyer for his winning effort. When comparing these two Pletcher colts, I would venture to say River Thames stands head and shoulders above Grande, IMO.
In case you’re interested, River Thames is entered in a $75K, AOC race at GP on Saturday, Feb. 1st, (R7).
Any thoughts on how Grande’s speed figures compare with River Thames figures would be greatly appreciated.
Thanks, Steve.
BTW, Steve, do you have River Thames Thoro-Graph number for his maiden win?
Thanks.
See thread with Kmi And Equibase fig is 94. Haven’t gotten River Thames but I’ll ask for it.
Steve, what a valiant effort in preparing the Derby Rankings for 2025, I felt exhausted after finally reading the final paragraph. To be honest, I haven’t taken much notice of most of these colts previously.
I liked the performances of Coal Battle, Sandman and Tiztastic so far this year but it’s so early there is nothing much to gauge these performances on. Speed King appears more a miler type but this could be deceiving. The races this weekend will provide a better picture.
Ferocious in the Holy Bull, Greyscale in the Swale Stakes, and MadaketRoad in the Robert B. Lewis are the ones that intrigue me most in those races. There are quite a few Japanese runners that have piqued my interest but you have to wait for their point system to kick in to determine the true quality there.
My enthusiasm for this crop thus far makes me feel quite guilty considering the amount of work you have obviously put in thus far for the Derby Rankings. Hopefully, the preps this weekend contain some star studded performances to ignite the road to the Derby.
Hey Steve. Glad o see the Derby Rankings back and will have this opener to refer to as we go along.
Buzz
I was counting out Chancer McPatrick after he came out of the BCJ with a quarter crack in one of his hind foot and subsequent surgery to remove the chip in his front ankle.
But I see now that he has evolved according to Chad Brown’s expectations. The 5-time champion trainer said in November that Chancer would resume training by the end of January and the he would be ready for the Tampa Bay Derby. Everything seems to go according to plan for the son of McKinzie.
It would be nice to see a Champagne winner being a protagonist in the Derby again since Sea Hero (1993) and Tiz the Law (2020)…
Good list and terrific commentary as usual Steve. I am just now getting interested in the three year olds after last year’s performances. I must say I am a tad disappointed that another full sibling to Mage and Dornoch hasn’t cropped up. Throughly enjoyed those two. I am being facetious but wouldn’t THAT be something. Thanks as always, Steve.
Hi Sharon:
Baeza, a half to Mage and Dornoch by McKinzie, recently ran second to lights-out winner Rodriguez on Jan. 4 at Santa Anita in his first start. You might want to check out the video.
He caught my interest, too, because of his breeding and his name. I don’t think we can judge much by that race, although he did beat Rank for second place. Rodriguez’s performance that day may have impressed me the most of any three-year-old this year and nobody was going to get near him. But I’m very interested in seeing how Baeza fares in his future races. I too wish him well.
Hi Steve.
I made a about comment on the KD Media Board Bob Baffert’s-trained qualification point-earner (2) Emerald Bay that he is not ranked in the standings.
Do you or anyone on this list know anything about his status?
Cheers
Bernardini is definitely a tour de force on the damlines of many mentioned. Hmmm…..
Thanks Steve
Futures odds update: Madaket Road now 33-1, was 50-1 yesterday…CB and Rodriguez still the same odds…
CB 22-1
Rodriguez 25-1
Glad I pressed MR a bit at 50-1
Good luck on your Madaket Road bet at 50-1 Biggy, that’s a great price! I bet MR at 47-1 in KDFW3 to win and boxed him with the Field and with Journalism. IMO MR has a legit chance to pull the upset in the R.Lewis. Hopefully F.Dettori will do the flying dismount in the winners circle with MR. Maybe Dettori has found his KY Derby mount. If MR pulls the upset, Baffert may keep Dettori on MR as he tries to accumulate points to get into the KY Derby. By the way Biggy, I’m glad Steve has Journalism at #3 on his list, I bet Journalism at 52-1 in KDFW2 to win and boxed him with the field. The San Felipe is next for Journalism on MAR 1.
Good luck with Madaket Road Biggy, 50-1 is a great price. I bet MR at 47-1 in KDFW3. IMO he has a big upset chance in the R.Lewis . I Also have Journalism at 52-1 in KDFW2.
Good luck to you too! We both have contenders at pretty good odds. We definitely will know more on Saturday. Would be nice if Robert Lewis had a few more starters!
The Robert B. Lewis Stakes resembles a public workout with three Baffert horses (1-Madaket Road, 2-Citizen Bull and 3-Rodriguez) out of the five in the field.
I believe the newly minted champion Citizen Bull will be asserting his experience and credentials to overpower his two stable mates. He has been training like a champion alrigth. His January 18th workout (6 furlong in 1:12 with Imagination a length behind in a strong extra gallop out) was spectacular but his last workout (5 furlong in 59 flat) with Pilot Command was not as flashy. Anyway, I feel like Citizen Bull is in better form that Madaket Road and Rodriguez right now. Still, it would be a good barometer for them going forward… from there on Baffert will have a hard time allocating his Derby hopefuls for qualifying points … I see Rodriguez like a perfect candidate to attempt the Florida Derby…the son of Authentic will be doing better than Spielberg did back in 2021…
Coal Battle has an amazing sex balanced linebreeding pattern to Seattle Slew. Rated By Merit is also intriguing to me too.
Andrea, interesting comment — first time I’ve heard of sex balanced line breeding, but whatever it means, I see six crosses of Seattle Slew in the first six generations, through both male and female horses. I certainly like the horse!
Ms Blacktype;
I agree with you re Coal Battle. I like the horse and I think he is a nice value play at current 55-1 futures odds…
It’s a great pedigree pattern. I follow the Clive Harper, Alan Porter, Anne Peters and Les Brinsfield philosophy.
Yes Andrea, and the Rasmussen Factor in a pedigree has been highly successful over the years.
Grande had every reason to fade and he stayed! Bigtime upside!..
Grande definitely on my watch list.
Thank you Steve, I was happy to see Aviator Gui and Omaha Omaha mentioned – two second place finishers who caught my eye… It’s still early but never too early to enjoy your Derby Dozen! Thanks again!
Thank you Francine. Looking forward to seeing if Omaha is the real deal
lookout for Caldera!
Another My Racehorse person. He’s beensee mentioned and addressed already.
Got a small piece of him but staying quiet as I think he got going to late to be a threat for derby but maybe Preakness
Happy 2025 Steve! Truly overjoyed to be able to look forward to your insightful nuggets of wisdom again this winter/spring! I give you 100% credit for turning me on to using Mystic Dan in last years Derby. I was all in on Sierra Leone, but you saved me. Can’t thank you enough! I read every word, every week. Much appreciative of your time and effort. Sincerely.
I appreciate that John and so happy you had Mystik Dan
Thanks for your wonderful analysis.
Todd Pletcher has said that he is looking for a race that is long enough to suit Grande in order to train him for the next big race. Todd feels that he is a stayer; he is a stayer with speed, intelligence, and class.
The curse was broken with Justify.
Regardless of how well Grande does in the Derby and Preakness, he certainly is one to consider for the Belmont. And his dam, Journey Home from War Front, has won on the grass. Hopefully, Pletcher, Repole, and Johnny V might be headed to royal races on the grass with this one as well.
P.S. I forgot to mention that Grande has AP Indy in his dam’s family; hence, his being a stayer.
There is a lot of stamina influences all along his dam line.
Curlin – Ap line has been lethal producing multipl3 grade 1 winners and eclipse champions
I was very impressed with his professionalism and he looks like he wants more distance.
Great list Steve. A lot of Uncle MO’s on this list. They always seem to come up short. We shall see.
Cornucopian and Curl and Hold are two colts with impressive pedigrees that have yet to race but are working lights out for their respective trainers. A few thoughts on both.
Cornucopian, by Into Mischief, out of Magical World, by Distorted Humor was sold at auction for $1.1 million dollars. His 2nd dam, Pleasant Home, won the BC Distaff and tracks back to Seeking the Gold, Con Game and Buckpasser. In addition, he has Pleasant Colony, Maplejinsky, (winner of the G1 Alabama at 10 furlongs, and the G1 Monmouth Stakes) on his tail-female side as well. On Jan. 23rd, he fired a bullet 4 furlongs in 47:00 flat for trainer Bob Baffert. It might be a little late for Cornucopian to have an impact on this year’s trail, but if he debut’s soon, anything is possible.
Curl and Hold, by Curlin, out of Beholder, by Henny Hughes, sold at auction for a whopping $4.0 million dollars to Zedan Racing. To state that this colt is the personification of breeding at the highest order would be an understatement.
His dam, Beholder beat the boys in the 2015 G1 Pacific Classic, in 1:59.77, less than a second off the track record. His sire, Curlin needs no introduction, his record speaks for itself. On Jan. 25th, Curl and Hold worked 4 furlongs in 47.40 for Richard Mandell, who trained Beholder as well.
Keep a close eye on these two colts moving forward. Hopefully, they will debut in short order.
Personification of breeding at the highest order –
Take Control – A P Indy – Azeri ($7M refused subsequently sold $1.9M) Earning – $70K
Jess Dream – Rachel Alexandra – Made only one start.
The above two are just a few that represented the personification of breeding at the highest order.
History reflects such matings rarely produce champions.
Hey Counter Point (AKA Coldfacts)
I expected a negative response to my post, you didn’t disappoint.
Before you throw cold water on Curl and Hold, as it relates to his breeding, how about giving this colt a chance to see how he progresses moving forward.
BTW, I couldn’t help but notice that your latest picks in a few Derby prep races have left a lot to be desired. Are you losing your touch in picking live longshots?
It certainly appears that way.
Have a good day, Counter Point (AKA Coldfacts).
uh oh, here we go again! Shots fired! those 2 ace-high legends are warmin it up for this weekends brouhaha! CP pulled out those multi-barreled derringers with a hit n miss, and sharpshootin ‘Wild Bill’ retorted with a bullseye hit! CP may have had too much of that Pnutbutter Whiskey(44-1) to shoot straight. I’m sure CP gonna take it to heart to show that Wild Bill he just not yapping a bunch of flapdoodle.
Keep those Stetsons on boys, it’s just week 1.
Hi kmi
I was need of a good laugh today, and you provided that with your Stetsons comment. 🙂
Very clever take on your part, kmi.
Bill,
It’s unfortunate that you have viewed my response as negative. I provided a bit of history to temper your expectation.
How many champions in the USA have been the product of a sire and dam that were HOTY?
History is what it is. It’s neither negative nor positive.
Twilight Twar was an all-time great filly—she did OK as a broodmare …
Twilight Tear
Wow Matt!
That’s way back. First filly to be HOTY (1944)
Only lived to be 13….dropped three prom8nent horses—one won 20 times, including one stakes…..one was A Gleam, a top filly….other was Bardstown, a real nice horse….Twilight Tear was FAST—HOY as a three year old! Not long after came Busher, another 3yo filly HOY….Twilight Tear is a favorite of mine….
Twilight Tear and Busher were HOY age three…. had similar records and both lived 13 years. ..two fast filles two great fillies….
Astute comments,Counter. Take Control had no business racing,due to ill fated comeback from serious injury.
Thanks for the heads up Bill… I will include them in my virtual stable. I love seeing Pleasant Colony in the pedigrees of young horses…
When it comes to Derby chances, Justify established February 18th as the latest debuting date to get there. Maybe Baffert is able to do it again… who knows?
At any rate, those blue blood horses might be doing well in the Preakness or Belmont …
You’re welcome, Nelson
I’m anxious to how those two colts progress in the coming weeks.
BTW, River Thames, by Maclean’s Music, out of a Discreet mare, is entered in a $75K, AOC race, at GP (R7) on the Holy Bull undercard. He wired the field in his debut race at GP, going 6 furlongs, in 1:10.27, drawing off by 4 3/4 lengths, earning an impressive Equibase Speed figure of 105 for his winning effort. I suspect he received his speed from Maclean’s Music and should be able to carry that speed over a distance of ground with the class and stamina influence reflected on his dam side. His sire line leads directly to Mr. Prospector and his broodmare sire line leads directly to Northern Dancer, which has been a successful cross that has produced 19 winners in Triple Crown races.
I would think his trainer, Todd Pletcher, is prepping River Thames for the Fountain of Youth scheduled for March 1st, with 50 Derby points going to the winner.
With respect to the field that he’ll be facing in his upcoming race, Rolando appears to be his main competition.
Keep an eye on River Thames moving forward.
I agree River Thames is a very fast horse and one to watch, but I think his true calling may be at shorter distances than the classics. Too many good horses get chewed up on the triple crown trail, and I hope his connections don’t get Derby fever unless he really shows distance potential. Good luck to him, and you!
As I mentioned, River Thames reflects speed on top, with stamina and class on the bottom. Stretching him out to a mile, AOC race, seems to be the logical step moving forward. In the event he should win on Saturday, I suspect Pletcher will take the next step and enter him in the FOY.
Just my opinion Ms Blacktype.
Good luck to you as well.
I am glad you mentioned that 7th race this Saturday at Gulfstream. River Thames is an intriguing one as his sire is believed to produce excellent milers but Cloud Computing winning the Preakness tells that with stamina female contribution they can excel going longer.
River Thames got stamina dose thanks to Pleasant Colony, Damascus, Touch Gold (grandson of Buckpasser) and Grindstone (Unbridled) on the bottom.
The son of McLean’s Music will be very tough to beat at a mile with Johny V and Pletcher.
BTW it was an interesting to see Tux in that Allowance coming off a gallant third in the Remsen. Bill Mott must be looking for a confidence builder and/or testing how the son of Tapit has transitioned from that huge effort at 9 furlongs… River Thames will be testing the talent of Tux for sure as both got the same running style… exciting race indeed Bill.. You are certainly foretelling future headlines about this race and with the highly anticipated debuts of Cornucopian and Curl and Hold… keep the excellent scouting!
Thank you for the kind words, Nelson.
I always pay particular attention to the horses in the William Mott barn.
Tux’s sire, Tapit, has never produced a Kentucky Derby winner, this could be the year. We’ll see.
There are some many prospects on this year’s Derby trail, it’s hard to separate the contenders from the pretenders. The cream will rise to the top in the upcoming prep races, contested at 9 furlongs, later on this spring.
He’s been working very well. Excited for debut
Thank you Steve! I was so busy into the Eclipse Awards & Pegasus World Cup that I really didn’t have a chance to know these new babies. Right now in no special order I like Citizen Bull, East Avenue, Barnes & Coal Battle. I’ve got pay more attention to these youngsters! Very informative Steve! 🏇🏇🏇🌹🌹🌹
Great start of the 2025 Derby ranking! It is the most comprehensive and well written review of the most relevant Derby hopefuls of the day.
Godolphin looks to be in its best position ever to win its first Derby after a 3-year absence in the run for the roses. Godolphin toughest foes during those years have been illnesses and injuries…
For the first time the breeding and racing powerhouse got four hopefuls in Steve’s first ranking with East Avenue emulating Essential Quality as the top horse back in 2021. East Avenue, Sovereignty, First Resort and Poster form a strong, honest and gritty quartet… it is hard to overlook their genetic prowess.
Their sires (Medaglia d’Oro, Into Mischief, Uncle Mo and Munnings) and broodmare sires (Ghostzapper, Bernardini, Street Boss and Tapit) have long been mother lodes of Stakes winners (with the sires totalizing 544 Stakes winners and 290 for their broodmare sires).
It is interesting that Poster being perceived as having the least Classic pedigree (at the top) is the only one undefeated and winner at 9 furlongs… Eoin Harty has shown preference to First Resort as the most adept to the Classics but Poster migth end up surprising his trainer…
As for Sovereignty, one should expect the best running possible in the capable hands of Bill Mott.
Brendan Walsh is taking East Avenue through the same path he did with the brilliant Maxfield going staight from a maiden win to win the Breeder’s Futurity. East Avenue is as good looking as Maxfield but faster. I just hope East Avenue remains healty and does not go through the mental trauma Dennis’ Momment suffered after stumbling in the BC Juvenile like East Avenue did.
I will have a ton of fun following this amazing four in blue to see if finally Lady Luck decides that 25 years of wait is good enough for Godolphin to take the Garland of Roses home.
InshaAllah!
Nelson, don’t forget the Japanese runners. Indigo, (Tiz the Law – Some Kind of Blue by Union Rags) had an auspicious debut at Chukyo last Saturday from the family of Winning Colors. The dam is a half sister to Eskimo Kisses (Alabama Stakes winner).
Davids, I love the family, and the name!
Yes Katy, that’s what caught my attention as well in the first place then the win was very impressive. From small acorns…
Thanks for the information Davids. I thought you were talking about a Godolphin horse in Japan. Indeed, after the leaps shown by the Nippons last year
I watched the replay and Indigo looks like one with nice tactical speed. I also saw another 3-year-old winning the second race of the same card at Chukyo named Testimone (Drefong). The time of Testimone was a second faster (115.4 seconds) that that of Indigo (116.4). But Indigo was debuting whereas it was Testimone’s second start. Testimone seems to be a powerful closer…
Let’s see how these Japanese prospects move forward if their owners have the Derby in their sight…
Yes, Nelson, there have been quite a few Japanese colts with impressive pedigrees that ‘should’ find the US dirt tracks to their liking.
Indigo, as Katy mentioned above, has a lot of sentimental attraction as well as the impressive debut race to recommend him for better things in the future.
I thought your analogy of what happened to Dennis’ Moment with what happened to East Avenue is a valid point.
Thanks so much. Great stuff.
Thanks for the new list. No mention of Tiztastic at all? Looked to me like another 1/8 of a mile would have had a different outcome last Saturday. He is bred for distance unlike many others listed.
East Ave is bred for distance among several currently listed.
I have to save some for Week 2. I am well aware of Tiztastic as I am others I didn’t mention in week 1
Steve, many thanks for your reply and I look forward to your comments.
Yes William, I thought Tiztastic ran a good race as well. The commentators from where I heard the race had so much egg over their faces after their ‘wonder colt’ Patch Adams had literally laid an egg that Tiztastic never got a mention there either.
Tiztastic ran a sneaky good one in the Southwest. Talking about needing blinkers I feel like Tiztastic will be improving with those. In the Southwest he left the gate swiftly and settled in fourth only 2 lengths behind Speed King but dropped 8 lengths behind that frontrunner in the backstretch. The son of Tiz the Law then ran the final quarter mile in 25.64 (Sandman did it in 25.72) with the final furlong in 12.86 (Sandman closed in 12.93). Those were very solid times given the ultra heavy condition of the track.
Tiztastic is the type that could be improving steadily and surely until peaking the first Saturday in May. Another maternal grandson of Tapit with brilliant future…!
Yes Nelson, and that is usually the case with Steve Asmussen trained horses, a slow build up to peak performance on the big day. Having a regular rider would help as well.
Thanks for the commentary. I agree completely. Not sure why there is no mention of Tiztastic in the Derby Dozen. Would be interesting to compare winners in 2025 from sires, Vekoma, McKenzie and Tiz the Law. I am betting on Tiz the Law to get classic winners as opposed to sprinters. Maybe some don’t like Tiztastic cause of the inbreeding? The Bemont should be the big test.
Yes William, Tiz the Law is siring high class runners on dirt and Turf as well as in Japan. Indigo and Queen’s Chocolate are impressive winners in Japan just recently.
His 2nd and 3rd crops are twice the size of his first crop so things can only improve, numerically, for him in the near future. Hopefully, Non Compliant and Out on Bail will return soon as well.
Just wait until Caldera shocks all of you!
He is on the list to be discussed next week when there is more space, I’m sure you like him for unbiased reasons and not being part of My Racehorse
Mr. Haskin, your Derby lists are always thought provoking.
Thanks Mike. I try. Lol
Not holding my breath.
Not holding my breath regarding Caldera, Nick.
Well he broke his maiden convincingly and he’s bred to do well. To late for derby but he’s going to be a good one
Hey Mark! How are you?
Good Mike. Hope all is well
Doing well, thanks Mark.
Terrific rankings to start the year.
East Avenue catches the eye every time on looks alone.
I’m worried about Sovereignty with his spotty workout record. Still time, but not much.
Mr. Haskin’s comments about Ferocious are spot on. He ran a weird race on BC Day. He fell back on the far turn before coming on strong to finish midpack. There is talent there. I wonder if he is a “head case”? Immaturity could be it.
Journalism is exciting, but I haven’t given up on Bullard. I thought Rispoli wrapped up early on him in the latest race.
Steve, I just can’t tell you how excited I was to see your Derby Rankings. I really had not begun to follow the three year olds year since you had not put a list out, but now I see that this could be one of the best crops we’ve seen for a while. Several of the colts you talked about sounded so good that I went back to watch their races. Thank you so much for this column. For some reason I just cannot warm up to anyone else’s Derby analysis.
Thanks so much Pam. I’m glad you’re getting into it. Let hope it’s an exciting Derby trail.
As my favorite sire is Medaglia ‘d Oro, I’ve got to love East Avenue in the #1 spot. This colt is nearly as good a looker as his fabulous sire. It’s great to see another of my favorite sires, Hard Spun, with 2 sons on this list. I’ll definitely be rooting for Dale Romans and Keep it Easy to prove his early promise and make it into the Derby field.
My biggest disappointment thus far has been Patch Adams. I’m hoping he simply needed the race and will prove to be better than he showed in the Southwest.
Robin, what always impressed me regarding Hard Spun was his soundness.
Medallion d’oro is a nice sire but primarily produce top filly and mares so I’m not quite convinced yet on East Ave
Hey Steve – It’s been a cold 🥶 January in Ohio in 2025, but the return of your Derby Dozen sure warms the Heart ♥️. Im glad to see you have Journalism rated so highly at #3. He’s Back to the worktab and McCarthy should have him ready to fire a big shot in the MAR 1 San Felipe. I’m glad to have bet Journalism at 52-1 in KDFW2. I bet him to win and boxed him with the field. I bet Madaket Road at 47-1 in KDFW3. I bet him to win and boxed him with the Field and with Journalism. I’m glad to see MR entered in the R.Lewis this Saturday. His last race was very impressive as he blew by San Saba in the stretch and held of Fast closing Father Ted for the win and galloped out strong past him. MR drew the rail in the Robert Lewis with F.Dettori aboard. It’s a small field with only 5 horses entered. Citizen Bull and Rodriguez will certainly give a big test to MR. I like the way MR is tactical and can sit off of the pace and finish. I expect Rodriguez to go to the lead with CB not too far behind and MR tracking them to make a run at them in the stretch. I would be happy with a good second by MR and thrilled to see him pull the upset. CB is coming off of a layoff and maybe Rodriguez will bounce from his big effort last time out. I believe MR will run well and am excited to see how he stacks up against winners. I like his chances. Good job giving great analysis of all of the horses Steve.
Thank you Joe. Good luck with Madaket Road. I know Baffert was high on him before he started.
Steve:
At this early stage if the Derby trail, here are my current top 4, along with current higher-odds horses that might be worth a bet at current available odds.
1. Journalism (I have at 79-1, can win $4,520
2. Coal Battle (59-1; $5,525)
3 . Disco Time (62-1; $5,479)
4. Rodriguez (30-1; $5,455)
1. Madaket Road currently 50-1
2. Burning Glory 100-1
3. Guns Loaded 50-1
4. Coal Battle 55-1
I jumped on Speed King at 125-1, just after race but before Wm Hill adjusted: like him at those odds, not 50-1 current.
I am not quite sure why, but I have more money deployed earlier this year, but glad I started early because so many have odds much lower than earlier. At least we are only a few weeks away from the 50 point to the winner races…
Your signature overview and informative
information is always a welcomed treat to kick off the Derby Trail.
Great list and introduction to the players, now let the ‘squid games’ begin.
Steve, excellent analysis as usual! I have an intuition this year’s crop is going to be much talked about for years to come. Obviously, good health is the key.
The top 3 are going to be hard to surpass unless something drastic happens.
Here are my impressions so far: I’m going out on a limb and predicting Disco Time and Grande will both move up the list. Both have good pedigrees and good physiques, not too big, not too small. Disco Time is no closer, he should get faster when he runs his races near the front, he was running against type in the Lecompt. Getting a late start on the trail might hurt Grande, but he’s also the most prominent Todd Pletcher candidate, which suggests he’s got a chance to make it into the race. I still don’t think of Chad Brown as a dirt horse trainer and wish he’d get back to turf training so the US turf contingent could be stronger again. I’m pulling for Coal Battle to win it all, that would be GREAT. (hear Tony the Tiger GREAT). I think Patch Adams is also no closer but was kept too far back and didn’t have the kick at the end. He should improve and wasn’t that bad in the race, should get a jockey switch from Prat back to Geroux or someone ekse. Sandman is game but he doesn’t seem strong enough.
I hadn’t found a reason to be interested in this group of 3yos, but, well, now I am.
Great information and so fun to read! Thanks Steve! I really like Barnes, Coal Battle and Speed King right now, but it’s early in the race and so much can happen. Can’t wait to watch all the prep races!!
Thank you Kristen.
Thanks so much for introducing me to this year’s hopefuls. It’s good to hear all of your learned comments on pedigree, conformation, action, and what they’ve show on the track so far. A good, solid base for following the unfolding spring season. You are the ONE I count on for the most solid, informed updates as we head toward the first Saturday in May.
I appreciate that Gale. Thank you very much.
Steve,
I wonder if Sovereignty has an issue? His workout pattern has been odd to say the least, and becoming reminiscient of Knightsbridge for Mott last year. Sovereignty worked 12/24, then nothing till 1/15 (22 day gap), and now nothing since then (12 day gap and counting).
Sovereignty is fine.
I’m watching him closely. If he doesn’t work by Wednesday I will find out what’s going on.
I was looking forward to your 2025 Derby list—and was not disappointed!….I love three year olds with big frames, and Journalism is at the top of my list—I also like Sovereignty…First Resort…Barnes…East Avenue—and a giant, named Filoso! Filost had an eventful trip, in November—he recently started working again…this is a horse with some talent!
I know Filoso well. Kenny always liked him. I will write about him after Kenny answers .my texts.
Mr. Haskin, as much as I detest winter,always look forward to your Derby list each year. Agree regarding East Ave. – he checks all the boxes. Coal Battle is intriguing.
Great to hear this! And I see Joe Hardoon was the agent, his father is Jon Hardoon the Ragozin Man! He suffered a bad trip but was still running well, at Churchill….when I first saw Filosp O “thought” Derby, he’s big and dark like Forego!..
No speed, wont make and if somehow he gets in, he will need a suicide pace. Was beaten well by others while he did not make up any ground.
Thanks Steve, lots of info to a long road to the Derby.
Maybe some little things would help people.
Sire Line:
Raise A Native so far has 23 Derby Winners.
Northern Dancer has 7 Derby winner so far.
I expected East Avenue to be somewhere, but not right on the top as we need to see how he progresses as a 3YO, but his 2YO numbers were good but for the BC, where he stumbled badly, I had him on the top in that race.
add to that:
Doxa (going back to the early 1900’s has the most number of Derby winners in her line, followed by her grand daughter Helene de Troie and HdT’s daughter La Troie.
Typo: La Troienne
Always love your column and insight. We all don’t have to agree as this is just the beginning. At this point I still feel that regression takes me off a horse if the reason is lack of effort or they don’t at the very least are making up ground so it’s wait and see for me on Bullard My Horse that has peaked my interest is Jounalism as I have always loved this bloodline cross and this is where they begin to thrive. He just keeps taking a step forward so he is at the top of my list. Verdict is a wait and see with both East Ave and Citizen bull on their next races. Coal Battle I believe should be moved much higher , this colt really looks like the real deal and as u said was even more flattered when Speed King won the Southwest. Patch Adam’s was all over the place in the Southwest but did come running , so I’ll give him another shot. His prior race was visually impressive. One horse folks seem to be giving up on but not me is Getaway Car. We all know typically Curlins are not that precocious so for him to get the foundation he did last yr will only help. Had he been a has been he would have folded in the Los Alimitos but he didn’t while doing all the dirty work upfront so I think there is no reason he can’t improve given the blood line . Barnes I feel they are really selecting their races protecting him so I’m waiting to see what he has in deeper water. All in all my favorite time of the year and always big thanks Steve for taking the time over all these yrs for your valuable insight
Good comments and observations. Thanks.
I think Getaway Car might be headed to the middle east races…
Steve: Congratulations on a great start on the Derby rankings — you obviously spent weeks of research on this first list. I was pleased to see East Avenue at number 1 (where he also sits on my personal list), but found some of the more unexpected choices (like Keep It Easy and Treaty of Rome) intriguing. You make a convincing case for all your selections, deftly dropping in juicy tidbits from Thoro-Graph patterns and speed figures to expected next starts. And the background information on who bred and broke these horses adds real depth to the profiles. That said, after the disarray evident in the first few points races we’ve seen, I sincerely hope there’s at least one breakout performance in Saturday’s races, whether from horses on this first list, the KOTD section, or out of the blue.
Thanks Ms B. Glad Dryou were able to absorb it all.
Thank you for providing an outstanding analysis of your early Derby prospects.
I expected a few surprises, and you didn’t disappoint. I didn’t expect to see Keep It Easy, at #8, Treaty of Rome at #9 or Aviator Gui at #11.
I was delighted to see three Into Mischief colts listed at #2, #4 and #6. In addition, you listed four IM colts in your KOTD segment. I was somewhat surprised that the undefeated Into Mischief colt, Donut God, was not listed anywhere. In his last outing, he wired the Inaugural Stakes field, going 6 furlongs in 1:09.13, earning an Equibase Speed figure of 97. His Brisnet figure was an impressive 97 and late pace at 95. He’s entered in the Swale Stakes, so we’ll see if he can make it three wins in a row.
Granted, you can’t mention all the Derby prospects at this early stage, but I’m hopeful that you will keep an eye on Donut God moving forward.
Thanks again, Steve. Your Kentucky Derby Weekly Rankings are much appreciated.
I debated whether or not to include him. Normally the Inaugural is confined to sprinters so it was running so long I figured I’d wait for the Swale. I’ll need some new horses to write about next week.
Sounds good, Steve, and thanks for the reply.
BTW, any thoughts on the vast array of Into Mischief colts on this year’s Derby trail?
Thanks.
It’s like they’re multiplying and running amok lol
Yes indeed, Steve, “running amok” and winning races.
My brain is reeling from all the information. Starting my spreadsheet as the preps start heating up the standings.
YOUR brain is reeling?. Lol
Thank you so much for the first Derby Dozen! Now the Derby trail officially starts as far as I am concerned! Very much appreciate the Thoro-Graph numbers: they really help the handicapping process. We should have a bit of clarification this Saturday…
Steve,
Thanks for finally publishing your much anticipated KD list. Hard to say anything against “any” of the horses yet. I expect many changes to come in the next few week. Until then Good show my man !!!
“Tis the time of year for Steve’s Derby picks….yay! Being a huge Curlin fan, I’ll root for Journalism & Grande. Curlin’s due for a Derby winner. Thanks so much, Steve!
Excellent list.