2025 Kentucky Derby Rankings – Week 10
With so many questions still to be answered, we had to do some restructuring this week, which means less activity in Knocking on the Door. Just think, the final week of preps is upon us, and after that we hope to have clear sailing to the first Saturday in May. Oh, wait, I just realized I have little left to say about these horses over the next several weeks. I guess we’ll have to tread down some untraveled highways to find some new entertaining and enlightening angles to make the time fly by. ~ Steve Haskin
Derby Rankings: March 31, 2025 – Week 10
By Steve Haskin
1—Journalism (Mike McCarthy, Curlin – Mopotism, by Uncle Mo)
1—Sovereignty (Bill Mott, Into Mischief – Crowned, by Bernardini)
I will wait until next week before separating the two of them, as Sovereignty’s second-place finish in the Florida Derby in no way detracts from my assessment of him before the race, and in fact it did not come as a surprise. When a horse wins a race after a layoff he wasn’t supposed to win they often then get beat in the next race they are supposed to win. But by post time I did not even consider this a race he was supposed to win. Coming back off a Thoro-Graph jump from a “5 ¾” to a “ 1 ¾” despite being a short horse, there could be a slight regression, especially drawing the disadvantageous 10-post and losing the only jockey who had ever ridden him due to injury. Although Manny Franco is an excellent rider I had my concerns if he fit this horse. Although I had no issues with the way he rode him I feel the change in riding style still could have made a difference. People seem to look at this horse as a deep closer who will have problems in a 20-horse field when in reality he is always no more than five or six lengths off the lead, and was only two lengths behind Tappan Street throughout the race. Both actually were forced wide into the first turn, but the bottom line is that the winner simply got that two-length jump on him when Franco said the colt seemed to lose his momentum slightly in a couple of spots on the far the far turn. And most important, Tappan Street ran a terrific race and came home so fast, not even Sovereignty shading :37 for the final three-eighths was enough to catch him. Remember, the last five Derby winners (excluding the September winner Authentic) lost their final prep. This race should move him forward and to me he is still as formidable a Derby horse as he was before.
All I can say about Journalism is hold on to your hats; the real fun is about to start. If he proves as adaptable as we’ve seen in past races and can prevent Citizen Bull, who will be wound tighter than the proverbial drum, from winning this race either on the lead or sitting off the pace for the first time, then he no doubt will be atop everyone’s list. He’s pretty much there already. He and Citizen Bull will be balancing on a potentially precarious wire in that you want to assert your superiority, but you don’t want to leave too much on the track four weeks before you have to go 1 ¼ miles against 19 horses instead of four. And on top of that, does anyone know how Barnes, who many now seem skeptical of based mainly on his works and not going to Oaklawn for what seemed a tailor-made Arkansas Derby, is going to run? But in the end it’s all about Journalism and how he deals with Citizen Bull without it taking too much of a toll.
3—Citizen Bull (Bob Baffert, Into Mischief – No Joke, by Distorted Humor)
You can’t say Baffert hasn’t been turning the screws. How do you make them even tighter after three powerful six-furlong works and a sharp five-furlong work? You work him five furlongs in a bullet :58 2/5, fastest of 38 works at the distance. If you read the above comments on Journalism you can probably use most of them to describe his situation. But remember, he likely will be the one calling the shots and dictating strategy, waiting to see how Journalism reacts. He knows one way of running, but we have also seen some interesting tactics in the morning to at least plant a seed that some experimenting is possible. And having a second weapon might be useful if John Shirreffs runs the maiden Westwood, who hasn’t shown any front-running speed, but has been a length or two behind a :45 3/5 and 1:09 4/5 pace going a mile. And Shirreffs’ big horse Baeza, although fast, can use some help up front, especially moving way up in class. Baffert has sent several advance scouts east to size up the competition and perhaps earn their own way into the Derby, but none have been successful. And if Barnes is indeed starting to back off a bit after knocking heads with Journalism, and Rodriguez also comes up empty back east on Saturday, then all the pressure will be on Citizen Bull to get Baffert back to the Derby in the one year he really wants to go and turn back the clock, seeing them bring out the blanket of roses for him once again.
4—Tappan Street (Brad Cox, Into Mischief – Virginia Key, by Distorted Humor)
I can’t remember the last time I saw a horse on the Derby trail undergo a change quite as dramatic as the one we saw from Tappan Street in the Florida Derby. It seemed a bit peculiar after the Holy Bull to give him two months off with only two career starts and some issues to work out. But credit to Brad Cox for knowing his horse and what he had and ignoring the fact that he would have to run big and then go into the Kentucky Derby off only three career starts, which used to be an insurmountable task, but has now become more fashionable. The last time we saw Tappan Street he had run a big race to finish second in the Holy Bull in his two-turn debut, but had to be ridden very hard on the turn in both his races, took a long time to pick up momentum, and wouldn’t change leads until the sixteenth pole. He spent the next eight weeks maturing, learning, and getting stronger and sharper in his works. What we saw on Saturday was a horse with a very high cruising speed who could now launch a bold bid with no urging at all, could change leads on cue, was much more fluid in the stretch with great extension to his stride. And he could come home the last three-eighths in :37 flat, which was too fast for even Sovereignty to overcome. WinStar’s Elliott Walden has been very high on him from the beginning and rated him their best colt over a month ago despite his Holy Bull defeat. “He is training awesome and we’re putting all our eggs in one basket,” he said. “He should move way forward off his last race. He looks the part, he’s doing great, and it’s in God’s hands from here.” Even the Derby gods are starting to pay attention. More on Tappan Street in Knocking on the Door.
5—Captain Cook (Rick Dutrow, Practical Joke – Pow Wow Wow, by Indian Charlie)
After what seems like an interminable wait, we are finally ready to see who and what this colt is. We haven’t heard a peep out of Dutrow and even those close to the horse have no idea what to expect in the Wood Memorial. Every week since the Withers we have stockpiled all the ammo we can, from his pedigree to his Thoro-Graph numbers to his competition, and now it’s time for him to fire away and establish himself as a serious Derby contender. What I have liked about him most is his adaptability, with distance, surface, and pace. It shows he has a good mind, which is so important. As for distance, his Thoro-Graph and Beyer figures have improved significantly the farther he’s gone. From six furlongs to seven furlongs to 1 1/8 miles his Thoro-Graph numbers have shot up from a “9 to 6 ¾ to 2,” and from a 71 to 83 to 94 on Beyer. As for surface, he’s done it on a normal fast track with a 13 DRF Track Variant, a sloppy sealed track with a 12 Track Variant, and a very deep, slow track with a beach-like 36 Track Variant. To run a “2” Thoro-Graph number stretching out from a sprint to 1 1/8 miles on that dead a surface is impressive. And finally, he has pressed a :45 1/5 and 1:10 3/5 pace before drawing off to a 9 ¼-length victory and then was able to press a :49 and 1:13 3/5 pace before drawing off to a 2 ¼-length victory, with 6 ½-lengths back to the third horse. Maybe it’s all smoke and mirrors and his true identity won’t be revealed until he meets much classier competition on Saturday.
6—Sandman (Mark Casse, Tapit – Distorted Music, by Distorted Humor)
I honestly don’t know what to make of the Arkansas Derby, which had a lot of similarities to Tiztastic’s Louisiana Derby. Sandman also was a deserving winner and it was good to see him finally find the winner’s circle in a stakes, but I didn’t think it was a deep field as far as talent with only four horses who looked like they could be Derby horses and the favorite having only one six-furlong race and being hyped as a superhorse. He may be one someday, but we’re talking strictly Derby. And again, Sandman did what he had to and pretty much dominated this race, but can a late closer ask for a more perfect setup and pace collapse. Poor Cornucopian didn’t know what hit him as Speed King tried everything possible to live up to his name by battling head and head with him in :22 2/5 and :45 1/5 before retreating to sixth, beaten 25 lengths. Cornucopian tried to hang in there and actually did well to finish fourth, beaten 9 ¾ lengths. Sandman, meanwhile, was relishing this dream setup, in which they ran the first half in :45 1/5 and the next half when he made his move from 13 lengths back to the lead at the eighth pole in :52. After outrunning Coal Battle, he did close his final furlong in a solid enough :12.97, despite doing some weird stutter step for no apparent reason. So although I admire this colt’s consistency and always putting in that big stretch run, I just have no way of determining how good a race this was, how good he really is, where his head is at, and where to rank him. We put him up this high because we know there is more to come. We also know he has the pedigree to handle the 1 ¼ miles and a big closing kick, so we’ll just keep him here for now and figure it all out after the final preps.
7—Burnham Square (Ian Wilkes, Liam’s Map – Linda, by Scat Daddy)
I have had him ranked high for the most part since the Holy Bull and attempted to explain his defeat in the Fountain of Youth, and after seeing what Tappan Street did in the Florida Derby I would think his stock had to rise a bit, especially after he shipped to Churchill Downs and worked five furlongs in a swift :59 3/5, setting him up for a potential bounce back performance in what looks to be a solid wide-open Blue Grass Stakes that has a number of horses attempting to rebound off a defeat in a race in which they were either the favorite or close to It. The truth is you really don’t know where to rank most of these horses, especially after the top four, and with so many inconclusive results each weekend at every track not named Gulfstream or Santa Anita. With this colt all I can go by is his best race and his most recent work, and this year especially if you like both of those you can’t let a three-length defeat get you off him, especially when he did get his act together late and was closing ground at the end. And I know that Wilkes, who was a driving force behind Street Sense’s Derby win, will get him to the race the right way.
8—Chancer McPatrick (Chad Brown, Mckinzie – Bernardreamy, by Bernardini)
I feel the Blue Grass Stakes could be a powder keg, just waiting to explode with the next major contender, and who that will be is up for grabs, depending on how the race plays out and what the track is like. One thing he has going for him is back class with a pair of Grade 1 victories in New York, and in its two most prestigious races for 2-year-olds. This colt has received mixed reviews even before his disappointing effort in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and even with him having a bone chip removed after the race. He certainly received them after his second-place finish in the Tampa Bay Derby off a four-month layoff, with first-time blinkers, and being behind in his training. His critics said he was too one-paced and lost his big closing kick from last year, and questioned whether he wanted to go 1 ¼ miles and might even be a one-turn horse. My response would be simple: let’s see what he does on a track not as quirky as Tampa and with that race under his belt, and with a more contentious pace likely. He’s still been working at Payson Park, with its deeper surface that helps get a horse fit. Like with most of the other 3-year-olds this year, everything is pure speculation, which is just a fancier way of saying we’re all guessing. But at least with him we have background data and visuals. Having already worn blinkers, it is hoped he can now settle into a comfortable position and demonstrate the late kick that defined him last year. Of course hoping is pretty much the same as guessing.
9—Chunk of Gold (Ethan West, Preservationist – Play For Gold, by Cairo Prince)
I was particularly interested to see how he would react on Thoro-Graph after jumping from an “11 ½” in the Leonatus Stakes on synthetic to a “5” in the Risen Star in his dirt debut. A “bounce” or regression could be expected with that big a move, but when he paired up that “5” in the Louisiana Derby stretching out to 1 3/16 miles, it showed he is a legitimate contender who is now expected to take another forward move. Whether he can improve another four or five points we have no way of knowing. Remember, as we stated last week, the pace collapse in the Louisiana Derby resulted in first- and third-place finishes by two horses who came from last and next to last, but he was the only horse who was close to the pace who was right there at the finish. Yes, he did get a little tired in the final sixteenth, but it was understandable considering it was only his fourth career start and every other horse within three lengths of that : 22 4/5 and :46 4/5 pace finished well behind him, including the four shortest-priced horses in the field. He needed to get a little tired with six weeks to the Derby, but West said he cleaned up his dinner that night and cooled out beautifully. And remember, in his last two races he had to van 12 hours to Fair Grounds. As for getting the Derby distance, in his first four generations he has nine horses who won major stakes at 1 ¼ miles or longer, including four classic winners and a Kentucky Derby runner-up, as well as five others who won stakes a 1 1/8 miles. And his third dam was second in the 1 ¼-mile Coaching Club American Oaks and Delaware Handicap. This is a tough, hard-knocking colt with vintage Airdrie Stud (Brereton Jones) breeding who continues to improve with every race.
10—River Thames (Todd Pletcher, Maclean’s Music – Proportionality, by Discreet Cat)
Why would I add a horse with his perceived speed-oriented pedigree and already having several horses in the Rankings who are running in the Blue Grass? I actually watched all his races again. In his debut, he easily put the 4-5 favorite away and drew off, winning by almost five lengths with his ears back. In his next start going a mile he drew off to win by 6 ½ lengths and again came to the wire with his ears back, throwing them up passing the finish line. In the Fountain of Youth, Sovereignty looked to have no chance of catching him inside the eighth pole and then suddenly found that big surge right before the wire. But what if there was more to it than that? Watching the final sixteenth again I noticed that River Thames, unlike his first two races when he drew off to win big, threw is ears straight up about 20 to 30 yards from the wire, and that was the exact moment when Sovereignty made that late surge. When he saw him he pinned them back but the race was over. Did that make any difference in him getting caught in the final strides or did it mean absolutely nothing? Being a big fan of Sovereignty I would say the latter. But watching it several times it does give you something to think about if you’re looking for a reason to bet River Thames with the hope he goes back to running hard to the wire. As for his so-called speed pedigree, Maclean’s Music has sired a Preakness winner, and his sire Distorted Humor sired a Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner. River Thames’ broodmare sire Discreet Cat defeated Hall of Famer Invasor in the UAE Derby; the only race Invasor ever lost, and his second dam is by Belmont winner Touch Gold, out of a mare by Kentucky Derby winner Grindstone. River Thames also is inbred to Kentucky Derby winner Unbridled and Hall of Famer Damascus, with that inbreeding both from daughters of Buckpasser. So his pedigree is a lot stronger than it may appear.
11—Tiztastic (Steve Asmussen, Tiz the Law – Keesha, by Tapit)
I’m not sure how he stacks up even in Asmussen’s barn, with the progress Publisher has made in major stakes despite still being a maiden. Both horses have the same running style with that big late move, but Publisher seems more the “now” horse with the way he gets bet. There was always hope in the barn for Tiztastic as they waited for the distances to stretch out, knowing he could eventually turn all those defeats into victories the farther he went, And the 1 3/16-mile Louisiana Derby was right up his alley. Just a side note, however, if you want to know who Asmussen’s best 3-year-old really may be, keep an eye on Sunday’s Hot Springs Stakes winner Clever Again, especially if he should show up in the Preakness. This looks like a flat-out runner the way he easily handled Gaming. But for now it is all about Tiztastic, and with these 3-year-olds eligible to make big strides at any time you have to respect a colt like this, who, with the exception of the Rebel, is always closing ground at the end and showed huge improvement after moving to Fair Grounds with its long stretch, much like Churchill Downs, and the extra distance of the Louisiana Derby.
12—Coal Battle (Lonnie Briley, Coal Front – Wolfblade, by Midshipman
Sometimes as the Derby trail becomes more arduous and competitive the Cinderella stories that captured everyone’s heart begin to fade and reality takes over. We’re not quite ready to put an ending to this fairy tale even though we finally saw a vulnerability in this little colt we didn’t see in his earlier, less competitive races at shorter distances. The question is did reality actually take over at the head of the stretch in the Arkansas Derby when Sandman went by him, followed by Publisher? I can’t say for sure due to the nature of this race, in which the brutal pace set by Cornucopian and Speed King set it up for the deep closers. Coal Battle usually is somewhere in between, not being a true speed horse and not being a horse who comes from the back of the pack, but being a horse who so far has been able to adapt to any scenario. He just wasn’t ready for something like this, with a blistering opening quarter, which he was too close to going into the first turn before the two leaders sprinted away from him. But that may have proven costly when he had to make a long sustained run to reach the tiring leaders as he did in the Rebel. Only this time he had Sandman, who was rolling from 13 lengths back, already breathing down his neck and he is not going to out-close a powerful stretch runner like Sandman with a quarter mile still to run. He stayed with him until the eighth pole before tiring to finish third, beaten seven lengths. Briley said he missed a work, so that didn’t help either. I don’t know if he is capable of winning the Derby with a more legitimate pace, but after four consecutive stakes victories he is entitled to get beat once and continue having his story told.
DERBY RANKINGS DILEMMAS
These can be considered potential ranked horses, and several will be, as soon as we get certain questions answered.
Luxor Café – He was going to be ranked, but his connections said they would make a decision on his Derby status on Wednesday, so better to wait and be sure. There is no way to assess the strength of the competition the Japanese horses are facing, so we can only go by what is right there for us to see with our own eyes. In the about one-mile Hyacinth Stakes, the third leg of the Japanese Road to the Kentucky Derby, worth 30 points to the winner, and run over the left-handed track at Tokyo Race Course, Luxor Café, a son of American Pharoah, made a big sweeping move under Australian jockey Rachel King to storm to the front and pull away from the field, only to have the undefeated filly Promised Gene come charging from the back of the pack and get to within a half-length of Luxor Café at the wire. Was Luxor Café getting a bit tired going a mile? Did he move too soon? Was King, an excellent rider, unable to hold this big long-striding colt together in the final yards? They still won the race, but not too much to get excited about.
Whatever the reason, King was replaced by Brazilian-born Joao Moreira in the about 1 1/8-mile Fukuryu Stakes back at the right-handed Nakayama Race Course where Luxor Café had romped two races back. As usual, he raced wide the entire race, and as they turned for home in the 15-horse field, Luxor Café cruised to the lead without Moreira moving a muscle on him and when he finally asked him, the result was devastating as he burst clear of the big field in the blink of an eye and was long gone in a matter of seconds. He won as he pleased becoming the first horse to win both the 30- and 40-point Derby preps. If he comes to Kentucky as expected, be prepared for anything. Imagine if Bob Baffert gets beat in the Derby on his long-awaited return by a Japanese-trained son of American Pharoah. The plot thickens. See you Wednesday.
Barnes – As of this initial writing, Baffert said he would have a better assessment of where the colt is at after he worked on Monday, but he did admit what everyone has been saying, which is his works have been “subpar.” That could very well be the result of his gut buster in the San Felipe. Having had only two sprints and already traveling to Churchill Downs for his career debut, he probably was not ready to run the kind of speed figures he ran against Journalism. As it turned out, his work Monday was a strong half-mile breeze in :48 that Baffert said he loved, especially the way he rated behind horses. Now comes the dilemma. Will he get in the Derby, likely needing a first or second in the Santa Anita Derby? The bottom line is he will run in the Kentucky Derby if he earns enough points, which would be reduced if they only get five starters. After three years of barn shuttling and frustration, his owner finally has another shot at it with Baffert following the 2021 disqualification of Medina Spirit. And with a $3.2 million price tag on this colt he is not about to let this opportunity slip by if Barnes is healthy and gets in. If he does he will shoot back up high in the Rankings, where he had reached No. 4.
East Avenue – Is there a bigger dilemma than how he is going to run in the Blue Grass Stakes after his inexplicable performance in the Risen Star, especially after a string of brilliant works since that race. This colt looked like a potential world beater before two eventful races turned him into a forgotten horse. Will he duplicate his impressive romp in the Breeders’ Futurity over this same Keeneland track and storm back into the Derby picture or continue his ignominious run of bizarre performances?
Admiral Dennis –Talk about bizarre performances, this colt was one of my five under-the-radar Derby horses back in a November column, but two terrible starts in the Gun Runner and Rebel Stakes, and having to come from 25 lengths out of it in the latter, sandwiched around an allowance victory at Fair Grounds make him a complete dilemma. He did manage to make up 18 of those 25 lengths, but how he will run in the Blue Grass is anybody’s guess. I know his connections were once high on him and excited to get him on the Derby trail. Now he has one last shot to stay there.
Rodriguez — Another former ranked horse, his big question is whether he can keep his composure before a race, having lost it before the San Felipe. He drew the rail in the Wood Memorial, which means he’ll have to be sent. Baffert feels he doesn’t want to be rated and needs to use his speed, which he demonstrated in his recent five-furlong work in :59 3/5. If he gets an uncontested lead he should be very hard to catch. The last time he set the pace he crushed Santa Anita Derby starter Baeza by seven lengths. So his dilemma is behavior related as well as performance.
American Promise – He was dropped to this section after it was announced he will run in the Lexington Stakes instead of having to go into the Derby off a seven-week layoff. The decision is understandable, but we now have to wait and see if he gets his projected “bounce” off the Virginia Derby demolition out of the way and can come back in three weeks. He is still an enigma, having run so brilliantly at Colonial Downs, which was not expected. So we will wait on him as well until we have a better idea who he is.
In the Wood Memorial we have three noticeable dilemmas: Will Hill Road finally learn how to change leads, will Sand Devil learn how to rate, and will Grande, wih only two career starts, be the one who gets Todd Pletcher into the Derby. I really like the first two of these colts, who have totally different running styles, and if the answer is yes they have an excellent chance to win and establish themselves as serious Derby contenders. If there is a strong pace watch for Hill Road to be flying late. There are several others in the field who are inexperienced and untested in stakes who are looking for a breakout performance, so if Rodriguez falters this race looks to be up for grabs.
KNOCKING ON THE DOOR
On January 7, 2000, Kenny Troutt and Bill Casner purchased Prestonwood Farm outside Lexington from the Preston brothers, who had had recent success with Victory Gallop, trained by Elliott Walden, and Da Hoss, trained by Michael Dickinson, and renamed it WinStar Farm. Several broodmares and stallions came with it in a package deal. One of the stallions in the package was the Walden-trained Distorted Humor, who had won five stakes in his career from six furlongs to a mile and set a seven-furlong track record of 1:21 at Churchill Downs. He stood for a meager $12,000 stud fee shuttling to Australia for two years, which WinStar put an end to after the purchase. Distorted Humor was unproven as a sire, but with speed and limited distance ability, he was never considered a stallion who would sire classic-type horses.
The same year of the purchase, a son of Distorted Humor was born after WinStar sent his dam to New York to foal and be bred to Personal Flag. After he sold as a yearling for $22,000 at the Fasig-Tipton New York-bred sale, he was named Funny Cide and would become a legend and a folk hero in New York after winning the Kentucky Derby and Preakness. Distorted Humor was off and running. By 2008, his stud fee had skyocketed to $300,000 and in 2010 his son Drosselmeyer won the Belmont Stakes for WinStar, and the Breeders’ Cup Classic the following year. In all he has been the leading sire, broodmare sire, and freshman sire in America.
Even as Distorted Humor slows down at the ripe old age of 32, WinStar Farm is still reaping the rewards from the gift that keeps on giving. Now, 25 years after he and Winstar helped each other get off the ground and form one of the great marriages in the sport, Distorted Humor’s grandsons TAPPAN STREET (on the dam’s side) and RIVER THAMES (on the sire’s side) are on the verge of representing WinStar in the Kentucky Derby if the latter can finish first or second or even possibly third in Saturday’s Blue Grass Stakes. As a side note, Distorted Humor also is the broodmare sire of Arkansas Derby winner Sandman and 2-year-old champion Citizen Bull, who runs in the Santa Anita Derby. Elliott Walden said the old warrior is beginning to show his age these days and had a tough night on Saturday and had trouble getting up. He has always been a fighter and has passed that on to his offspring. No matter what happens, at least he has four grandsons who are making sure he goes out with a bang.
FINAL GAMBIT went into the Jeff Ruby off poor speed figures, which have always been generally slower on synthetic than dirt for whatever reason. For example, his Thoro-Graph numbers were “12 ½, 12 ½, and 12 ¾,” which on dirt would make him a toss. But the majority of the numbers going into the race were very slow. His Beyers were just as slow, with a 60, 66, and 64. So how do you explain the Jeff Ruby, in which his Thoro-Graph number shot up to a “5 ¾” and his Beyer to a 90; a 26-point improvement? All I know is that his last two races, despite the huge point differential, were almost identical in that his stretch runs were as explosive as we have seen in a long time, even with a pace meltdown, and he just keeps getting stronger the farther he goes. In the Jeff Ruby his jockey could hardly slow him down after the finish, pulling back hard on the reins.
No one has a clue how he’s going to handle the dirt, not even his connections. His sire’s family is all dirt with the exception of Giant’s Causeway, who certainly handled it in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, and his female family is all dirt breeding in the first three generations, although his first three dams all started out racing in Europe mainly because his third dam is a half-sister to European champion and 2,00O Guineas winner Zafonic and to Zamindar, the sire of the great undefeated filly Zarkava, winner of the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, French Oaks, French 2,000 Guineas, and Prix Vermeille. And his fourth dam is by English and Irish Derby winner The Minstrel.
Garrett O’Rourke, Juddmonte’s U.S. general manager, explained that Turfway Park’s attractive prize money motivated trainer Brad Cox to winter there and they have had several horses that fit their program who started at Turfway, including champion Idiomatic, who raced there five times in her first six starts. He added that Final Gambit’s lack of speed on dirt in his early works was the reason they started him out on the grass at Churchill Downs last November and then sent him to Turfway. As for how he will handle the dirt six months later, we’ll let O’Rourke provide the answer: “Who knows?”
Ponder this: what if FLOOD ZONE romps in the UAE Derby? This is a horse who could have easily wound up ranked in the Top 5. We understand his new owner is Quatari and wants to see him race in Dubai. We know nothing about him, so we have no idea if he would want to bring him back here and try to make history becoming the first UAE Derby winner to win the Kentucky Derby or keep him there and try to make history by becoming the first 3-year-old to win the Dubai World Cup. History has shown us that it usually takes several months to get back to the races after traveling to Dubai and back to the U.S. Right now it looks as if he intends to keep him there, but it will be interesting nonetheless.
Racing historian, author, and award-winning retired journalist for the Daily Racing Form and The Blood-Horse, Steve Haskin was inducted into the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame’s Media Roll of Honor in 2016. Known for his racing knowledge and insightful prose, he has been an exclusive contributor to Secretariat.com since 2020.
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Sandman… weird stutter step for no apparent reason”. He shied at that bar of light on the track. Watch the tape again. I like this horse. He has a huge step. That may work for him or against him, since he’s big and young, and hasn’t really found his coordination. But if he finds it, well, I think he bears watching.
Any chance anyone has estimated final 3/8th mi. times for Tiztastic and Chunk of Gold for Louisiana Derby?
Tyvm
Just read that Ferocious has passed away due to laminitis. Too sad, just too sad.
I just read that Getaway Car is not going to run in the Derby. This may have been mentioned before, if so for being redundant
Per Ryan on X Getaway Car taking a couple of months off, will be back mid-summer.
The ranking for week 11 should only have Captain Cook out to give way to Rodriguez.
I don’t see Grande taking the places of Chancer McPatrick (35 points) or Burnham Square (30 points) as they need just to finish in third in Tuesday’s Blue Grass S. … they could very well get the needed points.
And both got better Stakes credentials than Grande…
So, it would be better to wait for the Blue Grass to round up the ranking as there is also a window of opportunity for River Thames (25 points) and/or Admiral Dennis (2 points) to enter the Derby starting gate.
Not sure what Steve would do with Citizen Bull though … everyone was covinced the champion was “as fit as a fiddle” … with all those 6 fulrong drills and sub-minute 5 furlongs… and now it turns out that “he needed the race”…
to me it was a case of stage one overtraining syndrome… perhaps some designed rest and reduction in training intensity would make the Bull regain form… but I see him as a toss !
Hey Nelson .. I can understand your disappointment with Citizen Bull, however I’m not going to be hasty in tossing him so soon.
I recall BB saying he only sends his charges if they run 1st, 2nd, or a troubled 3rd. Well the Bull didn’t have any trouble that I could see, he took 4th, and yet the Bull has been given the green light to go on to the Derby. Contradictory I would say. So why is the Bull going?
Now I’m 1 of those people that believe trainers USE races to train their horses. Keep in mind the KD is the GOAL. So that race coupled with all those great workouts equals fitness for the goal.
We will get to see a example of this in the Bluegrass with Godolphin’s East Avenue. He was stalking in good position then folded in his return race from a long break. Gets blinkers on top of great works. Let’s see how that plays out.
Still alot of variables to consider till KD day.
Not meaning to be contrary, but they had Journalism boxed in and no one but Baeza took advantage of it. Not only did Journalism show excellent character, but Baeza showed up with better training and skill. It is folly to think that somehow a 20 horse field is going to be a better opportunity than a 5 horse field. If Citizen Bull and Barnes needed training races with real competition, they should have already had then under their belts.
Totally agree! Bb has been scrambling….blinkrrs on, blinkers off…ship here n ship there….bb either didnt know what he had or knew exactly what he had and knew it wasn’t much….never have i seen bb or his horses “so behind” on the derby trail…..hes getting the karma he deserves….
Good point William. Coming into the race,reports indicated CB was training well.
I thought Citizen Bull looked “overconditioned” in the post parade. He looked ready for a halter class, not a race. American Promise syndrome? I wasn’t surprised that lankier Westwood outlasted him. Muscle is heavy, and toting it around can tire a pony out.
I am frequently wrong, but I feel like I am noticing a trend among the Into Mischief horses when going longer than a mile. If they get a significant challenge, they don’t seem as keen to fight on, and that may just be because of stamina limitations. Even though Authentic repelled Tiz the Law, he couldn’t out-do Swiss Skydiver when she just kept coming – with probably a hand on her, and the stride length that should come with it.
Y’all feel free to give me examples of times when Into Mischief’s get rose to the challenge/didn’t fold in stakes co going 8.5+. Authentic was the gamest one I could think of.
Katy, I agree with you and remember that those two races took place later in the year when the horses were older and yes, a lot of development can happen between early May and September and October.
They did indeed! What a weird thing we lived through.
And I will also admit, I forgot Tappan Street’s will to hold off Sovereignty (an out of the clouds Into Mischief). Jury’s out with these!
Mandaloun with his distaff side showing Empire Maker plus European stamina would not fold at longer distances.
Laurel River, Audible, Pretty Mischievous, Wonder Wheel, and Newgate were very game when challenged at 9 furlongs+… we have already seen that Into Mischief needs stamina ladden mares to produce more staying power in his progeny…
Tappan Street seems like one that could relish going longer…
And of course the imposing Sovereignty will be a big player at 10 furlongs…
At this point he’s going to leave the gate 15-1….
Bob said “he got tired, he’ll get a lot out of this race”—HUH? That was the final prep! I’d think entering Citizen Bull might hurt Rodriguez’s chances….THAT guy ran like a front runner! And he didn’t need blockers…
All the fast works WON’T onject stamina into a horse…Stamina—like speed—is a natural trair—you either have it or you don’t, it cannot be trained into an animal….
Matthew W, I agree.
Nelson, don’t count me as one of those ” everyone ” as I stated the horse needed stamina building workouts not bullet workouts.
Oh Yes DTS … I just remember your post about stamina building workouts …
I was refering to the main media which is of course driven by hyperbole and catchy headliners… in this case it was touting the theme of a Champion (in reported “peak form” ) against the most fascinating challenger ever in Journalism..
Training is a very complicated business…
Prior to winning the Jeff Ruby Steaks, the majority of Final Gambit’s works were over the AWT at Turfway Park. It was good to see his latest work was over the dirt track at Churchill Downs, going 4 furlongs in 48.80, on April 2nd. By Not This This Time, out of a Tapit mare, Final Gambit has an excellent turn of foot, similar to Sovereignty, if not better. For those that didn’t watch the Jeff Ruby Steaks live, I would strongly recommend watching the video replay. He was last in a field of 12 at the 1/2-mile pole, and proceeded to pass horses like they were setting still. His last furlong time was an impressive 12:19 seconds, finishing the 9-furlong distance in 1:50.10.
If he can transfer that performance over the dirt track at Churchill, he’ll a major player when the real racing begins in the Derby.
I was so impressed with his win in the Jeff Ruby Steaks, I placed a $50.00 win wager on him in Derby Futures Pool 6.
I like him too Bill. Looking forward to seeing more of his works but don’t expect fast numbers. He doesn’t get going till after 6F’s but I do want to see his stride, and his overall demeanor. This guy is just now finding himself and he just loves the stretch. I am keeping a sharp eye on him and I don’t think dirt will be an issue.
Joe P, he has a very good chance of following recent KD winners Orb, California Chrome, American Pharoah, Nyquist, and Maximum Security by coming into the KD with a win streak of four (or more) races. He got everything out of the SA Derby that he needed.
Agree Tony. In with a big chance.
Take a look at Santa Anita race six today–a big beautiful colt by Not This Time named Goal Oriented—settled in last—picked it up on the turn then wham-o! Big finish 1:10 flat—track has been a bit on the dull side this colt has big promise..
Thanks, Matthew W! I love these NTT horses. I’ll put Goal Oriented in the virtual stable!
Bloodhorse, Steve’s old stomping grounds, is reporting that Journalism came out of his win in the SA Derby in good order and will begin preparations for the KY Derby. 😃
Thanks Joe for the update.
Oops. See above.
Hope I am not double posting.
Tom Ryan of SF Racing and owner of Citizen Bull announced on X that the colt came out of the race fine, cleaned up his feed and will be running in the Derby. Admitted CB did tire a the end of the race. Said it ess because it was only his second race since winning the BCJ. BB would have him cranked for the KD.
Lynda, I was thinking along the lines that the jockey knew it wasn’t Citizen Bull’s day and decided to cut his losses and save any energy for another day….the Kentucky Derby.
No disrespect John, but if BB could choose any post(s) next month, not going to matter.
Don’t quite get your comment.
Sorry John, my mistake. Meaning whatever post won’t matter. However, winner of the Wood was impressive.
Read comments about the Beyer Speed Figures with some not particularly positive. That’s ok. But the solution if you don’t like them then don’t use them. Simple as that. There must be at least a half dozen or so past performance measurements out there. Beyer is just one. Some consider Beyer the gold standard. But for me, I just want a plain, straightforward and uncomplicated whole number. With all due respect to certain measurement that is quoted here I feel like I’m measuring something for my patio and deck.
But that’s just me.
As with the Daily Racing Form, there are called ‘Past Performances’ and not future guesses.
The entries are already out for the Lexington next Saturday. I’m surprised that a horse like Poster wasn’t entered to take a shot at getting into the Derby.
In fact, I’m not sure that any of the 9 entries can make the Derby with a win. Only 20-points to the winner. It looks like the Derby could be pretty well set after the BlueGrass.
I expect quite a few horses to drop out. We’ll see.
Will Citizen Bull go on to the Derby after yesterday? He was beaten pretty handily.
I liked the looks of Citizen Bull in a workout I saw when he was working alone. But in the Santa Anita Derby with other horses, he looked kind of small to me. Of course, I’m just watching on television.
His SAD effort (yes, double meaning) should give the connections cause for concern. Both visually and historically, CB did not look like a potential KD winner. I don’t recall Baffert saying that CB might not be in top form for the final prep. But that’s his excuse now.
Pending the outcome of the BG Stakes, I’d say the four horses currently without a significant flaw are Journalism, Sovereignty, Sandman, and Rodriguez. Just behind are Publisher and Tappan Street.
I’ve never had a day like yesterday, just $5 win/place wagers–with rolling doubles and pick threes—and every race a winner—my only big wager was $50 place on Rodriguez, I was way ahead and it was a saver bet—I also loved Grande, threw in Captain Cook (cuz everyone liked him) and MacAfee—whom I had noticed in his prior race–a race he had missed several works for—a half to our reigning HOY—and he ran huge, yesterday–likely would have been in my tri—Rodriguez, Grande, MacAdee would have paid handsomely, but yesterday was “one of those days”—I also like Grande, thought he came home like a good horse….
Congrats Matthew on your big day!! They don’t come often enough for us but when they do it’s such a rush!! I read your enthusiasm toward Rodriquez earlier in the week so I grabbed a little bit of the 60-1 on him in the KDFW. Thanks for the tip!
Wow! I tip my cap.
I was about to ask … has anyone had problems accessing this page earlier?
I tried to open secretariat page twice this morning could not be reached… I wonder if anyone else has experienced this glitch in their computers?
No, but continuing to be booted off every other day.
Slow to load a nd timing out. Thought it was my wi-fi.
Hacked by fans of Man O’War.
LOL!
Unfortunately for Zedan, he paid $3 million too much if he though he was getting a Classic distance horse.
Aqueduct was playing super fast yesterday. 6 of the 13 races were won wire to wire. Only one race was won by a deep closer. The remaining races were won by horses that were 2nd or 3rd at the second call (no further than 2.5 lengths).
Not a single dirt race at Santa Anita was won wire to wire. Making final time comparisons between tracks on opposite coasts is foolhardy.
Hi Zany… Amr Zedan started his ownership journey claiming inexpensive horses with Doug O’Neill for three years without success. Zedan’s luck changed when he acquired Princess Noor and employed Bob Baffer to train her and a $35K colt named Medina Spirit.
Zedan was so motivated by winning the Derby with the modest horse that he started to invest more heavily and very faithfully rely on Baffert to replicate that success.
With that new exhilarated energy Zedan bougth Taiba ($1.7 Million), Arabian Knight ($2.3 Million), Arabian Lion ($600K) and Hejazi ($3.55 Million), Muth ($2.0 Million), and Maymun ($900K) to name some better known colts… and he has been very active in most recent auctions as well…
Zedan has garnered six Grade 1, one Grade 2 and one Grade 3 winner and he is still investing heavily to acquire very expensive horses … not too shabby albeit the more than 50 million dollars he has invested buying horses so far…
I admire and respect his passion for Horse Racing…
After watching what Belinda Stronach, with her (purely) comercial & capitalistic mind, is doing to destroy the sports I really appreciate what Zedan and other horse loving people are investing to promote horse racing…!
Nelson, Mr Zedan currently has 14 horses in his stable.
Most every won was purchased based on how fast they ran at the auction exhibitions.
He has indeed spent a hefty amount of money and I too applaud his commitment to the sport.
However, I cannot help but think it must be somewhat discouraging to not have seen berrer
results or roi.
On another note, Governor Ron DeDantis has come out in support of horse racing in Florida. Time will tell I guess on how much influence he has in the matter. He is a very popular Governor and the Florida statehouse has a Republican majority.
Hi Lynda… when we embark in the journey of race horse ownership the ROI becomes ROE … Return of Enjoyment … as no one expect to make money in ownership alone… Zedan has sold some of his mares for millions for breeders interested in good pedigrees..
True enough Nelson regarding ROE.
That is why I often cheer for the lesser known owner, breeder or trainer and horse.
Amen! The best way to make $1 million dollars owning (race)horses is to start with $20 million.
Good one Katy!
I’m surprised more politicians haven’t supported racing, or at least, they can be considered against it if they vote for decoupling.
If racing is considered a bygone sport, aren’t casinos also? Slot machines seem to attract the elderly more than anyone. I guess they can stay open more hours than a racetrack.
They’ve failed to promote racing as a chance for families to get outside, see horses and socialize, as happens at Saratoga and Belmont. Maybe not being open at night is a limitation.
I believe Belinda Stronach wants to sell the land for its real estate value and it will be developed into housing/mixed use with no baccarat tables or slot machines in sight. She can do that now of course. If decoupling is passed, I guess she can sell part of the land for casino development, it will be more valuable without racing attached as I understand it.
Good points Discopartner… unfortunately some times politicians are more persuaded by the economic powers than by the voice of the people…
My problem with Belinda Stronach is that she would score more than 2 billion dollars selling the property and she has not hinted she wanted to help find a solution for all horsemen who would be left behind.
I will never understand how a person like her could be owning race tracks…
Her argument is that “race tracks in populated areas are a problem”… it is indeed a problem to people who does not understand the essence of horse racing and the organic nature of its economics.
Besides, every big city tend to grow horizontally so every race track, no matter how afar off it is, would eventually be surrounded by houses…
God … I deeply miss Queen Elizabeth II, and thank God for all the important and affluent people who love horses and what they mean for a lot of people…!
She inherited it, doesn’t have a feel for it and is absent a lot. I don’t like her managers much, their main accomplishment was to set up a betting app and embellish the website, calling that marketing. They messed with Gulfstream, the rainbow 6 used to be over $10 M. several times a year, now it’s $500 K., not sure what happened there. They also mandate the AW track to be used more than just on muddy track days, to replace dirt racing. To me that just cuts down the horse quality.
Nelson, the reality is that there are more people who “love horses” and oppose horse racing than who “love horses” and support horse racing. The industry, on its own, is slowly dying. That will not change, at least until it passes on.
Frank Stronsch penned a blistering editorial against decoupling.
In my opinion, which does not seem to mean much these says, Santa Anita will be next of Belinda gers her way in Florida.
That is the crude reality Lynda… the horsemen should be prepared to keep horse racing alive in Florida and the learning should be applied in California when Belinda get his billion dollars at the expense of Santa Anita history…
Lynda King– I wish that Frank Stronach would pair up with several wealthy horse owners, farms, and members of the Jockey Club to buy Gulfstream back from his greedy daughter. I hope he leaves her $1 in his will so that she cannot contest it.
Thank goodness most of the farms, trainers, and owners in Kentucky and Florida are opposed to decoupling.
The reason we don’t see sufficient political support for horse racing is that voters have little interest in supporting the sport and industry. What percentage of voters anywhere in the U.S. (other than Kentucky, perhaps) know anything about horse racing? I’d say it would be in the lower single-digit range, nowhere close to the issues that motivate voters of all persuasions in these difficult times.
Come on Lynda,
Mr. Zedan couldn’t get better results anywhere else. His current trainer is God’s gift to Thoroughbred Racing. He has the Midas Touch.
Agreed Zany.
Aqueduct was in fine form yesterday. It was not playing SUPER fast, the Beyer figures don’t back you up. There’s been more front runners winning everywhere, I guess except at Santa Anita. That’s not a gauge of how fast a track is.
Public handicappers make final fraction comparisons all the time, direct comparisons of raw final 3/8’s fractions run at different tracks. It seems to be accepted, despite overall time comparisons being frowned upon.
In my book, Beyer figures are the least reliable numbers. They only account for final time and distance. As we all know, racing has many more variables besides time and distance.
The “great” Andy Beyer has picked 3 KD winners from the past 20 editions using his proprietary formula.
As for “public handicappers”….how many do you know that are making a killing at the race track day in and day out? They are no better than you and me.
This is a very humbling game. Why would I trust my hard earned $$ with some “Public handicapper” touting odds choices every other race?
**Odds on choices.
I just meant you see articles on final 3/8ths along with other metrics so they have some credibility. Other handicappers use that also, I think it’s valid if you want to compare winners, especially if the early fractions were similar.
One of many variables….final 3/8s time, final 1/8 time. Sometimes these fractions can be misleading due to track variant.
As for Aqueduct, the track was sealed in anticipation of rain. Luckily it did not rain all that much, just a fine mist during the last few races. Hence, 6 wire to wire winners and 6 very close to pace winners.
As I have stated before, each race is a singular event contested at a particular time and place in specific circumstances which will never be duplicated again (if simulated multiple times).
Yesterday’s 101 BSF will not be 101 next time out. Same goes for Journalism. His last out 108 could not be duplicated yesterday. Different set of circumstance during the race.
One of many variables…final 3/8s times, final 1/8 time. Sometimes these fractions can be misleading due to track variant.
As for Aqueduct, the track was sealed in anticipation of rain. Luckily it did not rain much, just a fine mist during the last few races. Hence, 6 wire to wire winners and 6 very close to pace winners.
As I have stated before, each race is a singular event contested at a particular time, place and distance in specific circumstances which will never be duplicated again (if simulated multiple times).
Yesterday’s 101 BSF will not be 101 next time out. Same goes for Journalism. His last out 108 could not be duplicated yesterday. Different set of circumstances during the race.
The race results don’t say the AQU track was sealed, so I’m doubtful of that.
If the final 3/8’s is misleading, it’s more often due to what the early fractions were, slow early, fast late and vice versa.
Yes,Beyer numbers aren’t reliable.
Indeed Beyer is the least reliable… it is only used to publicize sires because it is an easy way to “measure” how fast that stallion was … and some handicappers use them as a lazy way to make a case in favor or against the horses.
In this case commercial success is not supported by reality…
Correct.
John Shirreffs just now on the Willman Show: “Were not going—don’t want to be on the also eligible list—Preakness for sure—he LOVES his horse… is giddy—says “look at his gallop out”—
Shirreffs: We couldn’t relax, because Jj kept moving Barnes out and in…”…
I think this is a really good plan for Baeza. John S (love him, but always misspell it) can put together a stakes campaign as well as any trainer when he has the horse. Cool to hear that he’s excited by this one – he doesn’t seem to be one to always tip his pitches. Beautiful gallop out! 1 & 3/16 shouldn’t be any problem.
Congrats to Baeza and John.
Baeza should do really well in the Preakness. I wouldn’t be opposed to making him my play that day.
Matthew W, good decision by John in my opinion.
Watching that head on….Barnes was used as a blocker—focused on Journalism….nasty business….Baeza galloping out back in front—J must’ve got tired some—Baeza needs to draw in, he’s a nice colt that should stay like a mother in law..
Yes Matthew … in the head on I could see clearly how Barnes bumped Journalism as many as three times at the end of the backstretch… Journalism was boxed until he could shift out in the last turn… It seemed like the other four horses (from two trainers) were “ganging up” against the favorite…
Anyway, as long as everyone is safe and sound, the skirmish yesterday was a good rehearsal for the bumping festival the first Saturday of May…
Horse was covered in kickback yesterday! His advantage? Training in better weather …and unlike a lot of entries—this colt does not need stamina works, he HAS stamina!
Demonstrates what a good horse Journalism is.
Of Tispoli can keep him on the clear—this horse goes and gets them! Umberto—fluent in several languages and the “life of the jockeys room”—won the SA Derby on Rock Your World but was replaced by Rosario….now gets his big career chance!
Makes me think of what McCarthy said yesterday – apparently Rispoli found it “a little tight down on the inside and [Journalism] is a horse that needs a little bit of room to kinda get going. Big horse with a long stride… Things kinda jammed up about the half mile pole and I think Umberto was a little bit anxious about when he would be able to get out. He and the horse together, obviously he’s very amenable to whatever Umberto asked of him, bided their time… Once he did swing out, you were able to see him get through his gears.” Sounds like post will be very important to J in the Derby and getting through the traffic. Obviously, he proved something yesterday, but still only 5 in the race… What post would be ideal for J with his running style in the Derby? (I’m becoming a fangirl of this horse.) 😉
Hi Michelle. Gotta love Journalism, I’m glad you’re becoming his fan. I’ve been his fan since I made a KDFW on him in DEC. IMO 5-12 would be a great PP for Journalism. Not too far in to avoid the Calvary charge going into the first turn, and not too far out to be hung Wide going into the first turn. Journalism always breaks great, which will serve him well in the KY Derby. I’m liking his chances to wear the roses 🌹. He’s battle tested and ready. You’ve picked a good horse to be a fan of Michelle.
Just saw a Twitter/X interview with Rispoli (J’s jock) & he was asked specifically about which KD post he preferred for Journalism. He said he really wants #20 (ofcourse) but “any outside post from 10-20” would work. He also remarked about the “Australian” designed gates used at the KD which he noted were kind of “tight” and since J is a big horse & doesn’t like to be in gates long, there’s some concern about that. But he also said the trainer always schools the colt before races so there’s that.
I am with Joe P about the best post positions in the 20-horse field.
And I am most worried about those jockeys “street fighters” who like to intimidate other jockeys … if they hapen to be close to Journalism Umberto Rispoli should be prepared to take some blows in the zones where the stewards don’t care to judge…
Yes indeed Lynda!!!
That’s why I love racing in France so much, the stewards give no mercy for those causing interference to an opponent and the jockeys know the score. No hesitation.
Looks to me like competition did what it needed to do to answer the questions about Citizen Bull and Barnes. The Blue Grass will answer more questions. Top 12 eliminated are Barnes, Citizen Bull and Captain Cook. Elevated up the list are Tiztastic and Coal Battle. New entry is Rodriquez at a lower level. Baeza unknown because of points and Luxor Cafe undecided. I would also add that winning in a field of 5 is not remarkable considering the field of 20 for the KD.
William, my view is that a perfect trip against four opponents may not be remarkable. But a win despite a difficult trip will be a benefit to Journalism as he faces certain obstacles in the KD.
I don’t disagree. It also may be a factor that Tiztastic and Sandman are going to have more time off before the KD. But then it may be some luck in turns of openings in the KD.
Yes, William, I’ve been skeptical of those three all year. Sandman, Tiztastic, Coal Battle would follow Journalism if I picked 4 of the best.
I put up a Rodriguez, Grande, McAfee trifecta box—rewatching that race–McAfee probably should’ve finished on that trifecta….
Well, I just got in.
I mentioned after Barnes’ win in the San Vicente that I considered him to be nothing special. I didn’t see the beast the commentor saw. I was accused of hating the colt and his trainer. I further stated that a KD win for Barnes didn’t fit into KD history
A$2.5M entrant was beaten by a nose in 2024. A $3.2M entrant winning he KD in 2025 was never on the docket. Barnes nose victory over a modest maiden was an indication that his ability and his purchase price were miles apart.
Sometime ago in my assessment of Journalism I specified he isn’t a genuine 10F colt. Why? He has to be had ridden to get on terms with those ahead. That kind of running style doesn’t win the KD as it is energy sapping and leaves him vulnerable to high cruiser that can accelerate out their cruising speed and remain resolute to the line. He will also be vulnerable classy deep closer as he will be in decline in the last furlong of the KD.
Journalism might not hit the board in the KD. He was fully extended to defeat a last out MSM winner. If Sandman gets the jump on him, he isn’t going to pass that colt. I have already stated he isn’t as good a Sovereignty. If Final Gambit can transfer his AW form to dirt Journalism will not be able withstand his explosive turn of foot as he doesn’t have a 3rd gear.
Citizen Bull was the 8th choice in the wagering in the BCJ. I advocated for East Avenue to be given the Eclipse. CB was never considered to be as good as many in the BCJ field. Several that were wagered ahead of him unperformed. BB did a good job of hiding him, but he was exposed on Saturday.
Madaket Road ran huge but may have run is Derby several weeks early. The KD distance appears beyond his scope.
Journalism is a force of nature.
You are more than rigth Mike Relva!
Thanks Nelson.
Have u even looked at his breeding and how they mature. Have you looked at his speed not to mention his last 1/8 times? Now you think he can’t get 10 furlongs when he just begins leveling off at 9. Sorry u are completely wrong about Journalism
Davids,
Calandagan owned by the late Aga Kahn took second in the Sherma Classic.
In case you did not know.
It does appear that his breeding operation is still intact for now. Saw some photos of new foals.
Lynda, Pierre Gasnier took over as the Director of the Stud in Normandy, from Georges Rimaud who held this position for 25 years, Nemone Routh is the Director and Racing Manager, Pat Downes is the Director of the Aga Khan Stud in Ireland.
The late Aga Khan had arranged many of the forthcoming matings prior to his death. Princess Zahra Aga Khan has been intensely involved with the studs for many years now. Nothing will change. Siyouni has been selected as the sire for 20 influential broodmares for next year selected by the late Aga Khan prior to his passing.
Thank you Davids.
Good to hear it will be continuing.
Rodriguez earned a 101 BSF for his Wood win. Journalism a 102 BSF for his win at Arcadia. Not bad. Not great. Journalism is trending downward after the 108 BSF he was assigned after his last win.
Sometimes they adjust the numbers a couple of days after the race.
His performance isn’t trending downward, all he does is win . One more to go for the roses 🌹.
Agree Joe, journalism did exactly what the doctored order it’s better the number did come down
…until he doesn’t!
Rodriguez was total gift at 7/2!
Seems like some of the horses he ran by are trending downward. In most cases numbers don’t concern me.
Only two races today around two turns on dirt, at SA…SA Oaks—1:46 (8.5 fur)…..SA Derby 1:49 2/5 (9 fur)…..that’s an extra 1/16 in 3 2/5—with trouble—J did just fine..
Thanks for the update Tommy…
It is worth mentioning that the three hard bumps that Barnes banged on Journalism made him lose 3 or 4 lengths against the front runners. So, I am in total agreement with Joe P and Jeff … speed figures don’t tell the whole picture. If there was a grit or determination index Journalism would be on top of it also.
Only great horses overcome adversity and garner an impossible win like the son of Curlin did yesterday. I know he should be at least 5 lenghts better than any runner in the Derby to win it … but he could be that good.
Journalism has consistently finished all his races at 37 miles per hour… so, if he is not a 1 1/4 mile horse who is? and one of his strengts is that is quick out of the block which is a great advantage in the Derby as well… he then settles and pounds like the good ones.
Journalism will be the only horse in America going to the Derby undefeated this year… that should count.
Lmao at trending downward. Did you watch the SA derby. The horse was basically stopped. Your view is completely wrong
Baeza may have “punched his ticket to Louisville”, as Frank Miramahdi said—but with 37.5 points he is probably shy enough—-two Japanese horses qualified—including that nose winner today—Baeza ran very well—wide and kept on….
Good tactics from John Sherriffs paid off. Whether Baeza makes the Derby or not, his good 2nd added to Puca’s legacy: he is G1 placed now. If he comes along more slowly than his brothers, we might be able to see what a Puca baby can do at 4.
Matthew, fingers crashed for Baeza to get in. Surely Flood Zone will be skipping the Kentucky Derby now.
Baeza is going to find himself right on the borderline and in need of several horses who have qualified to skip.
After Saturday, Baffert trained Getaway Car in 17th place with 46 points has been tagged as a possible omission.
Also after Saturday’s performance Citizen Bull would need to be highly questionable. Connections have Rodriguez qualified but Madekat Road also with 46 points is also right on the borderline.
Another query has to be made for the UAE Derby winner Admire Daytona. As of today he is not nominated for the Triple Crown. So connections need to make a serious decision if he is going to show up in 4 weeks time.
There are also two other horses who are in front of Baeza namely Built (45 points) and Florida Derby 3rd placed Neoequos (40 points) and connections are probably also going to wait out and see how things unfold in the next couple of weeks.
In hindsight Shirreffs needed a 3rd horse to be entered in the SA Derby and then Baeza would of picked up 50 points for his effort which might of made him also a certainty (except his graded stakes earned would have pulled him in last place of the 50 point qualifiers).
Sherries announced he is not going to Ky Derby
Thanks Mark.
Thanks for the info BrudderA but it’s all in vain. Probably the right decision.
Hi David’s, looks like Baeza could get in because several above him likely won’t be going. As far as Journalism goes, WOW!
No Baeza, Joe, but Journalism must be a red hot favorite at this stage.
Matthew it is a shame Baeza won’t get the points because some California trainers refuted to lend a hand and enter more horses in the Santa Anita Derby.
It is hard to accept than there was no 3-year-old out of the rest 220 in training in Santa Anita able or ready to be filling the marquee race…
Anyway, if that is the case then Santa Anita got bigger problems than being eventually sold …
Note to consider….if I remember correctly what Steve Haskins said, and I may get this wrong, and with all due respect to the impressive wins today by both Journalism and Rodriquez, the past four Kentucky Derby winners did not win their last prep race (going into the KD).
Interesting.
Going back 25 plus years its about 50/50 …those that won their last prep and those that didn’t….Monarchos, Super Saver, Funny Cide, Real Quiet and Grindsyone just to name a few….there’s more.
Rodriquez a 101 Beyer for his Wood win. Seems a bit low for me.
Hopefully, Luxor Cafe ships in for the Derby. I placed a $50.00 win wager on him in Pool 6, at 20-1. My other wagers in Pool 6 are as follows:
$50.00 to win on Final Gambit, closed at 30-1
$50.00 to win on River Thames, closed at 48-1
$50.00 to win on Owen Almighty, closed at 48-1
$50.00 exacta box on Journalism and Sovereignty, closed at 5-1 and 9-1, respectively.
I would have added Tappen Street with you box but good luck on what you have.
Hey Down
Tappan Street’s odds were too low for my taste (14-1). I was looking for horses that I’ve been following with big double-digit odds,
With respect to my $50.00 exacta box wager, it is my belief that Journalism and Sovereignty are the top contenders in this year’s Derby, and with that in mind, I made that exacta wager.
‘Amazing lack of comments regarding meltdown of Citizen Bull/ Barnes. How much did Coal Battle cost? $70k
Hi Mike. CB was overrated, Barnes appears to be a miler, Journalism is The real deal. I was skeptical of CB. He did win the BCJ, but he was a longshot. He definitely ran poorly in the SA Derby. He couldn’t even outfinish Westwood.
Joe, just an over extended amount of hype- less substance. Journalism looked like a man among boys.
Two horses today CB and the Captain had extended time off between races. Both tired and ran duds. Barnes eliminated himself with a really poor effort after poor works .
Par for the courde….you can here a pin drop!
Yes and heads exploded.
Bittersweet win today in the Grand National.
The winner, Nick Rockette, was purchased by Sadie Andrew, who was diagnosed with cancer in 2022. She got to see him race one time before she passed away in December 2022
Her husband Stewart said after the race “Out of such sadness, joy has been born”.
Per Racing Ireland
David, I responded to you below!
By the way, I’m in the UK now!
David, I’ve never seen anything like the embarrassing tweet by the Louisville Courier-Journal. They literally said imagine Baeza ir Grande not getting into the Derby because of Admiral Dakota & Heart
Heart isn’t going, but what an incredibly unprofessional thing to say. If either of the other two horses were not to make it (they will), that’s on them for not being ready
Betsy, just rise above it. I’ll be sad if Baeza doesn’t get in but it’s no one else’s fault but CDI makes the rules blame them.
I didn’t – I sent them a blistering response, lol
I have nothing against Baeza or Grande, but I’ve never seen such an unprofessional comment in my life…I had to say something, lol
Betsy, how is the weather and where are you now? North or south? Ha ha
South – Tunbridge Wells, about an hour outside London
It’s absolutely gorgeous – about 60 degrees F, sunny….and it’s going to be like this for the next 10 days (it will be near 70 degrees F at the end of the week)
You are in Kent, Betsy, so much history there soak it all in. Start reading the Racing Post the 2,000 Guineas is being run on May 3, 2025. Live on ITV. Ha ha
I plan on visiting several historic homes, gardens, etc…- there are SO many things to see and do!
Ha, I should ! Maybe I’ll even place a bet!
Betsy, guessing everyone is different. I’m flying to Maine in June and no time for posting while there.
I guess so, but I’ve traveled by myself for many years – I’m not missing out on anything by posting, lol
For one thing, it’s almost 6 pm here, and I’m back at my cottage. I’m not posting while I’m touring, lol
For another, I’m here for 3 months – I don’t have the pressure to do something everyday in a limited amount of time. Much of the time I’m just taking it easy – except for days when I’ll be out
Good luck on your travels.
Thank you!
Enjoy Maine – I’d love to go there one day!
Flown there several times, never been to the Portland area.
Is that where you’re going now? It supposed to be a terrific city ..
Going June and staying near there.
Does anyone know what happened between Journalism and Barnes down the backstretch? Jounalism turns his head towards Barnes and then breaks stride. An excellent response by Rispoli got him back focused on the race.
I believe Journalism was squeezed by Barnes on the outside and Baeza shifting slightly to the left… but I will have for the head on replay to be sure … the fact is that Journalism lost at least two lenghts in the hassle with Baeza getting a 4 length jump on him …
Hope the Derby favorite is OK …
Thanks, I’ll check out the head on replay.
Ultra impressive win by Journalism in the SA Derby. He had to steady during the race and dropped to last before swinging wide and closing down Baeza. The 1 1/4 will only make Journalism stronger. Happy to have the clear cut KY Derby FAV at 52-1 in KDFW2.
Very impressive and Journalism got some ‘tight quarters’ practice which should help him in the Derby. It is nice to have the Derby favorite at such nice odds! I checked my William Hill account, and my first futures bet was 11/17/24, at 100-1; if he prevails, we can feel great and have bragging rights for the next year!!!
Journalism now +350 favorite at William Hill…
Good luck to us Biggy!
Well Joe – I had the son of Curlin since day one not to mention all 3 Curlins in My futures and even though Getaway Car will get some time off for a summer campaign. All 3 are in the top 18. More than one Journalism fan from day 1
Your sitting pretty for the Kentucky Derby….Good Luck !!!
Thanks! You too!
Joe he just goes and gets them!
Yes he does Matthew. Hope he closes the deal in the KY Derby. You know he will love the long CD stretch and the 1 1/4 distance. Sovereignty will be coming, but Journalism is more tactical and will get a big jump on him .
Congratulations, Joe. Hope he justifies the investment.
And you too Biggy!
Congratulations to all the winners today and all the winners on this site with your bets.
Been a long time since I have watched this many races on the same day, even some of the Grand National
1:49.56 for the Santa Anita Derby and 1:48.15 for the Wood Memorial … Aqueduct was supposed to be the heavy track.
Journalism finished in 12.49 and Rodriguez in 12.47 … but is Journalism with all the looks of a true 1 1/4 mile horse…!
Nelson, Andy Serling predicted before the running of the Wood Memorial that Rodriguez would get an easy lead and win the race because the New York jockeys are too passive. Sometimes every blue moon Andy Serling is right on the money.
Randy Moss was also right about predicting Rodriguez winning the Wood … he made a good case about the “conflict of interest” when the son of Authentic had to face his also frontrunners team mates in California…
I thought he was very convincing in his analysis …
Andy Serling was also quite scathing on the quality of the New York horses in the Wood as well.
I really like Baeza’s performance, bound to improve by lengths after the Sanita Anita Derby.
Puca would make history if Baeza were to win the Preakness…
The Wood was the faster race and Grande kept pace with the winner for the most part, two horses got in. Faster finish in New York.
Serling is usually terrible, sometimes little respect regarding how he slams horses.
Amen Mike, I find him very abrasive and tune him out when I can.
Thanks big! He’s an angry little man.
I agree, I can’t think of a worse person being a face for racing. I usually just mute him. He’s even rude to his fellow commentators at times.
Also, Wofendale isn’t on my hit parade. Many time while speaking, her voice changes pitch. Very annoying!
EDIT-times
I agree. Mike (nails on blackboard sometimes), although she’s a real horsewoman and knows her stuff. She should be a LOT more selective about what she says and speak more s-l-o-w-ly.
Agreed Ms Blacktype.
Yes, agree, Maggie Wolfendale should follow Richard Migliore’s example.
Journalism beat Rodriguez by 11 lengths in the San Felipe Stakes.
Apparently Rodriguez wasn’t himself in the San Felipe… but it was Barnes’ time to shine in that race.
Yes, Nelson, reading between the lines that’s exactly what I’ve been seeing all year. You have to cater for your clients.
Mike Smith alluded to Rodriguez not being allowed to run his race in the previous races in California. He allowed him to do what he wants and didn’t fight the horse in the Wood.
Terri, do you think he prevail in Derby without being able to rate?
EDIT- prevails
Mike Relva– I agree. Rodriguez won’t be able to win the Derby.
That’s a fair point, Terri. Sometimes the races in California look contrived to me so that certain horses are allowed to win while others are held back.
Davids, ditto your comment regarding Wofendale.
Congrats to Journalism. Question…obviously he is the best in the west. I would put him all by himself on top the three year olds this year. Nothing even close.
Going forward……
1) Journalism
2) Rodriquez
3) All others
But that could change come Tuesday at Keeneland.
Not sure about that, think Sovereignty and Tappan Street are very good horses. Still like Coal Battle some depending on pace.
Journalism had a slow (or as tough guys like to say “soft”) final 3/8ths, the closers who won the last two weeks are faster.
As Jack Van Berg once stated “time only matters if you’re doing it”.
What a race! What a finish! Way to go, Journalism!
Journalism had what looked like a huge steady on the far turn….then he won……he’s just a good horse…
My brother told me years ago…small fields tend to have their fair share of trouble…..Journalism did seem to back up mid-turn…he righted himself then came and got Baeza—this horse has gears–(with an “s”….)…
I would agree with your brother.
Hey Davids…guess who is the happiest fool in Calgary rigth now?!
Journalism wins convincingly despite serious trafific troubles…what a horse!!!
Congratulations to you, Nelson, and to Journalism. He’s beaten two very fast Bafferts in three different races now. And one of the ones he just beat clobbered the field in the Wood Memorial. I don’t want to predict what Steve will do, but Journalism is clearly No. 1 in my book. And as much as I respect Sovereignty, I’ve put Luxor Cafe at No. 2.
Thanks Ms B … I am very happy to see Journalism taking a big step forward… he has gained weight and looks ready for the Derby … a bit of luck there is always needed … but he will be the overwhelming favorite there as I have predicted…
Baffert has driven a group of his best horses to exhaustion … this kind of exertion in training works for Rocky movies only … Ho ho!
Exactly Nelson, but as far back as Dec remember the same tune, “he’s loaded”. How’s that working out?
Sovereignty no worse than number 2.
Guessing Ms. Blacktype $3.2 mil doesn’t buy as much as it once did.
Hi Nelson, not quite sure about you being a fool. Ha ha I thought Journalism and Baeza would run 1, 2 the Baffert horses haven’t impressed me all year.
I was happy with Heart of Honor’s performance in the UAE Derby, I doubt Osborne will run him in the Kentucky Derby though. The rest of the other Dubai results were marked by the average performances of the Saudi star performers.
The Wood Memorial was a present given to Rodriguez but l’m happy he will run in the Kentucky Derby. Keeneland for the next three days. Fantastic.
Would not count out Admire Daytona. Have you looked at his pedigree?
Connections reported to be coming. Will have to pay $3,000 nomination fee by Monday afternoon.
Lemarie hinted at the same.
No Lynda, if Admire Daytona comes he will be closely watched but I prefer Luxor Cafe of the two at 10f.
The Maplejinsky on the bottom is the highlight. The only problem is he’s by a low start sprinter whose pedigree would have predicted him a long winded performer. Will be interesting what side he favors.
Rodriguez might be the best that BB has. Barnes was way back there and was eased to the wire. I’ll cut Citizen Bull some slack. He had to work hard to get to the lead. Not sure, but Westwood might have beat out Citizen Bull for 3rd.
The BlueGrass on Tuesday and the Lexington next Saturday.
Westwood took 3rd.
Grande accomplished what he needed to and got enough points to enter the Derby, barring an issue. I think he can get the distance but seems to lack speed and a kick. He made a move before the turn which is good, but didn’t have much acceleration. He didn’t have his regular jockey, Johnnie V., and he was taken kind of wide on both turns. The jockey may want to keep him a bit closer to the front if possible. He did ok for only having won two allowance level races at Gulfstream. His final time is pretty good.
No matter what happens in the Santa Anita, don’t overlook Rodriguez in Kentucky. He is the definition of a sleeper.
The time was consistent with how he’s been running in California, too — and 2 seconds faster than the Gazelle on the same card.
Rodriguez gets a clever ride by the wily veteran, Mike Smith. Way to go, Mikey!
Does Rodriquez remind one of Sunday Silence, or what? I seem to recall that Sunday Silence won the Derby on a cold, damp day just like today. Could it be an omen?
No Dewey, but Journalism does.
Mike, I was referring to the looks of the horse. Rodriguez and Sunday Silence are both blacks w/white marking on the forehead. Journalism is a bay.
Sorry.
Rodriguez was the best of that bunch by quite a bit. Easy win. 7-2 seems like a gift. I wish that I would have seen it that way.
Can’t say too much about any of the others.
Rodriguez wire to wire. Nice win shipping in from left coast and beating a Pletcher runner. On to Kentucky!
Grande had only run twice, in an optional claiming and maiden special weight. I think he’ll get the Derby distance, but he needs more pickup on the turn. He got 50 points so he’s in barring an issue.
No Speed King this time … only one speed horse!
Exactly; probably going to have company up front in the Derby….Still, O am glad he will be there; he is worth $6,400 if he wins, don’t think he will, but glad he got in
Good for you biggy … you are still alive … that is the most important thing.
Rodriguez could be the Real Quiet of this Derby… who knows!
Thanks, Nelson, I have $219 on Rodriguez, so at least it is alive and not dead money like a few too many horses for me this year…Good luck to you!
Wow. Very impressive win by Rodriquez. Completely dominant. So far, Baffert is 2 for 2 with a second. Is this going to be a Baffert day?
PS-Crazy Mason’s win earlier at Aqueduct reminded me somewhat of Silky Sullivan way back when….
Yes John … it was the most spectacular closing display this year … and on the wrong lead! Even his people were surprised with the stunning display today.
It was the third win in a row for Crazy Mason… another son of Coal Front doing really well this year …!
I was refering to Crazy Mason and his Silky Sullivan win in the Carter.
Rodriguez was just breaking free from his barn mates with equal dominant speed … Mike Smith was laughing from the get go…!
1;48 flat—a 60 year old rider….
Rodriguez now 18-1 in futures at William Hill
Was 50-1 prior to Wood
100
50-1 at William Hill, I think…prior to Wood…
Congratulations on your winning and cashing day!
My bad I have lost a lot of my vision…I thought you were saying he got 50 POINTS—I got him early this year at a nice price—onltly a fiver! Mike gave him a good ride—hand ridden home..
Glad you are on him!
Closed at 61-1 in pool 6.
Odds were lower at William Hill
Nice win Matthew W. with Rodriguez…. with the way you have been winning today you should go out and buy a Powerball ticket. I thought he would have gotten a lot more pressure on the frontend than he did. Nevertheless a very good win!!!
Rice has zero shot in Wood, she never has any chance Derbyrelated.Statesman for the win.
Wood Memorial
$1.00 super p/w wagers;
2,5,7/2,5,7/2,5,7/ ALL ($42.00)
All/ 2,5,7/2,5,7/2,5,7 ($42.00)
$20.00 Exacta Box, 3/8 ($40.00). Just for the hell of it.
Singling Journalism in my SA Pick5. GO JOURNALISM! Here’s my late P5 1,2,7,8/10/1/5,6,8,10,11/1,3,4,5,9,10.
2 out 2 so far. Following along. What did the ticket cost?
Congrats Joe.
I’m doing very well today at Aqueduct, and not betting a lot—jjust got a $2 pick three for $299 and ticket o ly cost $4…..am sitting on Ridrigue@, for a $1 pick three that pays $405—ticket cost $1—just three singles I have won all three of my Aqueduct plays today–Ridriguez would make four for four—it’s one of those days..
Congratulations Matthew! You’ve got skill AND luck today.
Thanks very much!
American Promise skipping Lexington, going to train up.
Can someone explain Dubai betting? Forever Young ran 3rd yet paid $2.10 to place. I’m confused.
Hi Robert … In Dubai the place entails 2nd and 3rd … you would see how the payouts are for first and then place payouts are for the three first horses….
After watching replays from Dubai, Forever Young and Straight No Chaser never looked like winners at any time during their races. Forever Young was bumped repeatedly by Wilson Tesoro. Or maybe it was the other way around. Forever Young has a history of bumping in the stretch in big races. Maybe he could have gotten up without the bumping. Maybe not. Maybe Forever Young and Straight No Chaser just had bad days after running so hard in their last ones. To use a cliche: “these horses are not machines”.
That’s twice now that Mixto has shocked me.
Rebel’s Romance did look like a winner. He just didn’t have it in crunch time. Again, he has run some very hard races lately.
Steward’s report on Straight No Chaser is that he was mildly lame on left fore and will need vet clearance to race again.
it’s 30 minutes to the close of KDFP #6
Barnes 16/1
East Avenue 43/1
Coal Battle 23/1
Final Gambit 30/1
captain Cook35/1
Sovereignty 10/1
Statesman 92/1
The track at Aqueduct looks “fast” to me. At least for the time being.
An “off” track is the great equalizer. I handicapped the Wood based on an “off” track. I just watched a horse go wire to wire at “The Big-A”. Maybe I’ve shortchanged Rodriguez.
I read in the foreign papers thar Hit Snow and Mixto were so outclassed…..kept thinking how hard that Saudi race was—-and noticed that Ushna Tesoro was not the horse he once was—USA is still #1 for dirt racing, we didn’t send our best, notby a long shot—they kept calling Forever Young “Worlds Best Dirt Horse”—I think they are wrong….
Are you telling me that Hit Show and Mixto are better than Forever Young? Rubbish!
I haven’t watched the races yet. There must be a story there. I think that Forever Young drew the rail, but I’m not sure. The rail is never a good thing in a big field.
I’ll watch the replays when I get a chance.
Not saying that—-but they kept referring FY as “World’s Best”… and I couldn’t figure why—Fierceness, Sierra Leone, White Abarrio, Mindframe and Locked—are right up there….
Tommy McD Forever Young had an off day–for whatever reason. He’s a champion no matter what.
Some are dismissive of my conclusion that Brad Cox represents the changing of the guards.
He has a lot of 3 yo’s, one at every major prep almost, he’s ambitious.
IMO, Brad C works very hard. He doesn’t seem to have a life away from the horses. The hard work pays off. Some are suspicious of him, but until he gets banned for 3 years or suspended for 10 years, I have no reason to doubt him.
Of course, I was a big fan of Steve Garvey, Pete Rose, Fran Tarkenton, Tiger Woods, and Jerry West. All but Jerry West disappointed me in the end. Despite how West was portrayed in that HBO series about the Lakers.
I have a lot of respect for Brad Cox. Elizabeth Merryman, Caravel’s breeder and first trainer, would sing his praises any time anyone asked. Caravel went to Graham Motion after she was sold and when Merryman was being treated for cancer. She never thrived in his barn. Merryman was always kept in the loop with Caravel even after selling her outright, and credited the filly’s return to form and subsequent improvement to Brad Cox. She cited the fact that he works hard to individualize care, training, and race plans for his horses. Not everyone creates a program for each horse; in fact, I think in a lot of barns, the horses have to fit into the program, or they flunk out of big kid school.
Agreed!
My 2023 Derby pick, Hit Show, pulls off the upset.
Nice prep in the Santa Anita Hcp…
5th in the 2023 KDerby to Mage
British Bookmakers had Hit Show @ 66/1, Mixto @ 40/1 and Forever Young who finished 4rd at 4/9 odds-on….
Bill,
I remembered you were high on this colt. and used him in a $0.20 tri with the runner up and FY.
Congratulations CP
It paid $300.00
Thanks.
if every time I spend $12 and make a $300 return, I could lift myself out of poverty.
Good bet. The $1 quinella paid more than the exacta, very odd.
Bill, I remember that you liked Hit Show for the ’23 Derby. He just seems to keep getting better with age. Impressive win.
Hey Dewey.
Yes indeed, like fine wine, Hit Show has improved with age. 🙂
And remarkably Bill, it was his first Grade/Group 1 win. Like Vino Rosso, the best Derby trail horses get better with time.
Ms B, you had the answer. I thought that was his first G1! Candy Ride horses seem to improve with age and seasoning, too. Wonder what’s next for him?
It was a masterful ride. I didn’t think he had a chance at the top of the stretch! Isn’t this his first G1 win?
Bill Dawson–Congratulations!!
Japan once again….with the odds on Dubai Cup favorite co.ing up—Romantic Warriorlooked mortal tonight—likely the Saudi Cup took a lot out of him….still only beaten by a half inch….
Gee whiz, Admire Daytona winning the UAE Derby makes Luxor Cafe look like a serious threat now. Admire Daytona was 3 1/4 lengths away in 4th place in the Hyacinth Stakes….
Will be interesting if both accept coming over for the KDerby!
Prayers for howdeepisyourlove.
Dislocated fetlock.
Uggh. At least it isn’t a fracture.
Barnes is still taking money in the Derby Future @ 15-1.
I don’t like Sandman at all, but he is 8-1 right now. Lower than Sovereignty at 10-1.
Journalism favored at 6-1
Citizen Bull 9-1
Tappan 15-1
Tiztastic 18-1 (seems very low)
Chancer McPatrick 18-1
Coal Battle 21-1
Luxor Cafe 24-1
Just four weeks until the Derby. It will be on us quick.
So far I’m “perfect ” today at Dubai….had Raging Torrent and just hit the exacta withmy two in the Dubai Derby….played both to win and got the 10-1 winner…..Baeza will need a win today—five horses lower the points—Citizen Bull looks formidable, with that work pattern ….
Finally got beat! Had Najatomi win place at 21-1. thought was going to win—the place prices are small because they allow three to share in the poll….Straight Mo Chaser wants/needs time between races….Tuz probably was best….
Straight No Chaser appeared shocked by the kickback and finding himself caught in the pack.
I’ll just watch Romantic Warrior…then play a Forever Young/Mixto exacta….
Geezus, this horse keeps losing heartbreakers…
I don’t even know what to say
I’d feel better if he were not likely to go to the sidelines for the rest of the year
But he’s freaking game
No matter how many times you feel disappointed, he ran WELL.
I know, I’m disappointed for him & his connections – even Jamie said this stings
Betsy, I see what you mean about the jockey. She lost the race allowing Heart to drift just before the wire. Bad luck.
Dewey, several people on Twitter said the same thing …and many were furious at her after the Al Bastikaya.
She definitely was a factor. I wish he had a stronger rider that could get a lead change in the stretch and keep him straight, the daughter will eventually be an effective rider but asking her to ride at this level was something they privately likely regret.
He looks like his pop–Honor AP….
Really? I don’t see much of a resemblance – mostly because he lacks the bling HAP has
But he’s a stunning colt, with the most lovely heart on his forehead, and very elegant.
I’m sure he’ll get a break now, but I’m crossing my fingers hard that he’s sent to the U.S. – there’s just not much for him now.
Betsy, a step before and a step after the line Heart of Honor was in front. That’s racing, things will even out eventually – hopefully.
Be proud Heart of Honor ran so well.
David, I firmly believe there’s a big race with his name on it, but it’s crushing – you could see how devastated his connections were.
I am – he’s so talented, and GAME! He really wants to win – he surged late between horses, which is to his credit
The blinkers apparently really helped, too.
I hope he’ll run in in the US after a break – putting him on the bench the rest of the year makes no sense
We haven’t seen the best of him
Heart of Honor looks spectacular in the UAE Derby post parade … The son of A.P. Honor is second choice at 3 to 1… should run to that confidence…
The Japanese are good looking horses as well … best turned out horse is the Japanese Shin Forever…
I am hoping a good run from 2-Don in the Mood at 8 to 1.
Electrifying finish between Admire Daytona and Heart of Honor in the UAE Derby… as expected the added distance benefitted Admire Daytona who was close to Luxor Cafe in the Hyacinth closing really strongly.
The other longshot Don in the Mood was very game but was not part of the tight photo finish 2 length behind the thrilling pair… fantastic finish clocking 1:59.13 for the 1900 meters ( 1 3/16 mile)….
Glad I hit my $12 Trifecta box … hope someone followed my recommendation there … Ho ho!
And hope to see both Heart of Honor (who was better positioned early with blinkers today) and Admired Daytona with Christophe Lemaire … they would add excitement to the Derby.
Great opening to the rest of the Stakes today…!
I saw the last part – I just can’t believe the way he lost this race after the previous two. The way Heart never gave up, lunged at the last in between horses …so game
I missed most of the race – I’m glad blinkers helped
He’s got so much potential. I wish they’d consider sending him to the US (after a break) instead of possibly-probably giving him the rest of the year off. The owners wanted dirt horses – they now have a good one. To make him strictly a Dubai horse makes no sense
Nelson, great reminder that Admire Daytona was beaten by Luxor Cafe in the Hyacinth. If Admire Daytona was good enough to beat the excellent (and gorgeous) Heart of Honor, I can’t wait to see Luxor Cafe compete in the Kentucky Derby. I sincerely hope he comes over.
I was pleasantly surprised that Raging Torrent paid nearly 4-1, in Dubai—Doug O’Neill had said he ran his two year olds on turf because Bob ran his on dirt—when he debuted this guy at Del Mar on dirt vs two of Bob’s—I took notice, and despite his rider losing his crop he won easily—Raging ran in the race following last year’s Derby—in 1;21 1/5….Dog got him to win at a mile—we have become text buddies, I told him in January I was hoping they would not go to Dubai, and point to the Met Mile….he said they planned on BOTH..
Frankie Detorri returns to Dubai to win the Godolphin Mile for a record 8th time. Never can count him out as he still has game. Unfortunately, as of now, it appears that Frankie will be without a mount in the KD. The one race that eludes him.
The Dubai World Cup card is streaming live on You Tube.
Also being televised on FS1.
The G2 Wood, Manny Franco has pushed all the right buttons on CAPTAIN COOK.
Ditto that in the G1 Santa Anita Derby for Martin Garcia on CITIZEN BULL also.
I’ll take both to ‘Run n Gun it.’
How about “gunslingers” ?
Steve, love your Kentucky Derby Rankings and follow them every year. I really like Journalism and Publisher. I know that Publisher is still a maiden, but after reviewing his past races, he has legitimate excuses for a few of them. He seems to be getting good at the right time and he keeps coming. What are your thoughts on him? I see you don’t mention him in your “Dilemmas” section. Thanks.
Thanks very much. Most of the dilemmas are horses about to run. Not much of a dilemma on him anyway. We know what he is, maiden or not getting better each race. They were always high on him.
I just watched the Fukuryu Stakes. I should be joining the group wishing for connection of Luxor Cafe to make the trip to contest the KD. The colt is part of my All-Other Wager.
But as usual I have to call balls and strikes as I see them. A close examination of the colt’s stride mechanics reveals he has the action of turf horse. There is little or no extension his stride. He is more up and down. He will be a very tired entrant by the time the 9F maker is reached
He will be annihilated in the KD.
Luxor Cafe was 3-4 wide the entire time until turning for the stretch run where he was 5-6 wide, yet blew away the field in a mere two seconds. As for his “extension”… every horse has an inherit “flaw”. Luxor Cafe posses more talent than 98% of the American KD contingent. You should be super excited that he is in your All-Other pool.
Hoping that his connections finalize their decision and bring him Stateside.
You aren’t joking Zany. LC can blow away anything in BB’s barn.
Happy birthday Mr Haskin, just wanted to say I’ve been reading you for about 10 years and it’s absolutely been my pleasure, from your historical articles to the derby dozen,I don’t even remember how I stumbled onto Bloodhorse, but it’s one of the best things that could have happened to a lifelong horse racing fan, because of you’re brilliant and humorous writing. Wishing you and your family all the best.
Wow that is so kind of you Kevin. Thank you. That means a lot to me..
Why is Captain Cook held in such high regards? Steve has had him ranked for so long he has forgotten the rationale for his decision. The colt is currently 34/1 in the Future Pool. he is selling ahead of East Avenue and several other top-class horses.
The colt’s claim to fame is a win in the Wither by 2 1/2L. Who was his best opponent on the day? That would be Surfside Moon who exited his previous race with a 6th place finish. Additionally, the runner-up has one win from 6 starts and has finished off the board 3 times.
How many of the highly regarded colts on the KD Trail, as the 1/2 favorite, would have defeated last out 6th place finisher by 2 1/L? It doesn’t matter number the TG guys assigned. The glaring fact is The Captain defeated an extremely modest runner-up by 21/2L. How does that make him top 5?
If all the horses ranked below Captain Cook were in the Wood Memorial. What would be the ML for The Captain? I contend he wouldn’t even be 6th choice.
There must be something I am missing about this colt and that will likely be revealed later today. But I have serious doubts.
Cornucopian is likely to have exited the A K Derby as damaged goods. A last out 6F debut winner subjected to that kind of fractions over an extended distance. Is a formula for significant regression. The colt might not have gone near its feed tub after the race.
That’s the danger of being overly ambitious with talented horses.
I often read that BB has various strings. If indeed these strings exist. How do the fans of the barn know which horse fall into the various strings?
I recall reading somewhere that Madaket Road belongs to BB 4th string. How does this categorization reconcile with the fact Madaket Road was the only BB 2YO to make its debut in a graded stake? Which 4th stringer would be so ambitiously placed?
Final Gambit was administered Lasix for his two starts at Turfway Park preceding the Jeff Ruby. He was defeated in an 8F completed in 1:39+. He won an 8F in 1:40+ The mile split in the Jeff Ruby was 2.5 seconds faster than his two previous start and he won for fun.
The colt was significantly faster without Lasix. When will the owners and trainers in America emancipate themselves from the scourge of Rad Day Medication. The two groups in combination cannot go on thinking nothing is wrong.
If the owners and trainers were administered a Lasix shot every time it is administered to their horses, that have no option to object. I wonder how many needles marks would cover their arms and how would they endure repeated soreness at the puncture points.
With Keeneland being cancelled today, I’ve been trying to figure out the Wood Memorial. I wanted to play Hill Road, but he will apparently be scratched.
Rodriguez ships across the country and lures Big Money Mike to ride. I haven’t been all that impressed by Rodriguez even though he has been racing against the best in California. He will add the blinkers and surely try to wire the field from the rail. BB-mania will keep his odds low. A Breeders Cup Sprint winner on the dam side. But this Wood field isn’t so great.
Captain Cook is a son of Practical Joke that has already won at a mile and an eighth. He beat the underwhelming Omaha Omaha in the Withers. Omaha Omaha is back to try Captain Cook again and is 30-1 on the morning line. Steve Haskin has Captain Cook at #5 on his rankings. No offense, but I don’t like Captain Cook as much as Mr. Haskin. But Richard Dutrow has been working magic after getting back into the flow since his “time away”.
The New York-bred Sand Devil looks good on numbers, but his 3 wins were against State-bred company. I don’t like the looks of him as a “distance” horse. He’s no Mr. Buff, who looked like a million bucks, but had trouble against open company. New York does have the best State-bred program in the country IMO. If I had a million bucks to buy a horse, I would by ten NY-breds instead. Money to be made in the Empire State.
I wasn’t all that impressed by replays of Grande’s 2 wins, but I think he will improve in his second try at a mile and an eighth.
Passion Rules comes back pretty quick after his 3rd straight win. Brad C usually means business when he ships into town.
Bottom line: I don’t love this field. A small $5 exacta key-box Statesman(15-1) with Grande(5-1) & Captain Cook(7-2). Even with the 2 scratches, the odds could hold up if people go crazy with the BB horse on the rail.
Saving my bankroll for Tuesday at Keeneland.
“buy”
The 9-week layoff designed for Captain Cook left me wondering if the trainers of the Golden Age were overdoing it by running their horses frequently (meaning every 2, 3 or 4 weeks max.). The thrust of competition was deemed to be the most effective way to extend peak physical condition and mental fortitude.
Many of you may remember how handicappers were quick to diminish the chances of any horse going to a Stakes after a “lenghty” layoff of 5 weeks. Longer layoffs began to gain popularity after the 90’s.
We’ve had discussions about how frequent racing used to be a good way to sustain mental sharpness and keep the best level of physical and mental fitness in race horses.
As a believer of conditioning by running and training at equivalent intervals I was impressed by how Brad Cox engineered the significant transformation of Tappan Street over 8 weeks of training at Payson Park Training Center. The top trainer made Tappan Street not only fitter but also a professional runner… in a third career start!
The performance of Captain Cook tomorrow in the Wood Memorial will be another test for this new training philosophy entailing conditioning largely in the mornings as oppossed to following a steady schedule.
Asking for the rationale of this extended layoff would be a great question for Rick Dutrow Jr.
Skipping the mile of the Gotham after impressively winning the Withers at 9 furlongs seemed appropriate. Furthermore, after a topmost ThoroGraph of 2 Dutrow (knowing his horse very well) might have calculated the right time and regime for a peak performance when it counts most …
I would like to think that there are still “old school” trainers who keep abreast of advances in the sciences of veterinary and sports performance. They can prove that the “state of the art” in training is all about having the right horse and knowing how his natural maturity clock works…
I think that is Richard Dutrow’s M.O. More time between races. But Captain Cook has been working steadily since his big win in the Withers.
Come on TMcD,
The Captain’s best opponent was a last out 6th place finish who has won 1 time from starts. The 3rd place finisher is the exceptionally speed deprived Omaha Omaha who finished 6L behind the runner-up.
What part of defeating such a group can be classified as a big win?
Substitute The Captain with any other decent colt and the result would have been the same.
The last paragraph of you post should lead you to Statesman for a major wager.
Happy Birthday Steve! God bless you with good health and many more birthdays to come!
Thank you very much!
I didn’t want my birthday sneaking in here but someone spilled the beans. So thank you all for the birthday wishes and kind words. I really appreciate it.
I hope your birthday was great, and remember that you can celebrate birthday month all month long!
Thanks Sally
For those waiting for the Dubai World Cup card to begin, ‘Sunny’ Sydney has a brilliant day of Randwick racing to whet your appetite. There are 4 Group 1s plus a couple of other Group races as well. Caulfield races are good as well, with a couple of Group 3 races and it’s a perfect Autumn day here, beautiful sunshine and as ‘still as a bell.’
The Group 1s at Randwick start at 3:20 pm here, 20 minutes past midnight Saturday am, New York Time, with the 2nd leg of the 2 year old Triple Crown the Inglis Sires’ looks a battle between the Wootton Bassett colt, Wodeton, and the Too Darn Hot colt, Rivellino, at 7f.
Next up is the 3 million T J Smith Stakes, then the 4 million fabulous historic race The Doncaster Mile. Moira, Anisette are in a tough debut here to begin there Australian racing campaign. The Wooten Bassett horse Royal Patronage looks strong here along with Linebacker.
The final Group 1 race is the 2 million ATC Australian Derby the last leg of the Australian Triple Crown for 3 year olds with the American Pharoah colt, Goldrush Guru getting the nod. No J Mac though, he’s debuting in Dubai.
I’ll have to wait for the Dubai World Cup complete card comes up on Youtube to watch after the terrific cards at Aqueduct and Santa Anita are completed.
The Sunday, Monday, Tuesday cards at Keeneland keeps the happy medium of top class races going all the way to Wednesday morning for me. Five days of racing at it’s best – bliss.
Soft turf, right?
Just got a nice exacta, Vinrock and State Visit. Vinrock stayed on the rail and pushed forward at the end just enough to win, connections have been doing well today there. State Visit came through the middle. The turf courses are beautiful at Randwick, so manicured and green.
Did you see the Doncaster? What a race, what a finish, extraordinary?
I did, was looking at Moira, didn’t notice the horses in the crowded finish as much but won at the last bob it seems.
Discopartner, that’s a great result with Vinrock and State Visit, did it pay well?Sydney gets so much rain now, due to climate change, while in reverse, Melbourne hardly gets a drop in comparison.
Nonetheless, Randwick manages to maintain that track in magnificent order.
I picked them at the last minute, straight exacta, got $50. Also small win bet on Vinrock, he had a good ride along the rail.
Stellar racing round the clock, indeed! Thanks for the promo, Davids.
Ms Blacktype, try not to see who won just watch the races – it’s what racing is all about.
Cheers Steve!
Time to share an El Kabong Haskin connection. My better half got me a t-shirt. It read BROOKLYN, NY. Classic grey heather, worn out blue font. A guy came up to me and asked, why Brooklyn. I said, “Why not Brooklyn, you gotta problem with Brooklyn, you wanna talk about it? Totally caught him off guard. My best friend from college grew up in THE BRONX. Steph made a mistake. But then I realized, I have a connection to Brooklyn. So now I tell people, a very good man I know is from there. But I do love the first response I gave. WHY NOT BROOKLYN?
Incomprehensible!!!
Steve is from Brooklyn, does that help.
I want that shirt. Lol
I join everyone in wishing you a very happy birthday. I love to read your columns and everyone’s comments. There’s a lot there to think about, and I’m better informed than usual about these three-year-olds. Thank you.
Happy Birthday, Mr. Haskin!
Just for the hell of it, I’ll box Tiger Twenty Four (30-1) and Passion Rules (12-1) in a $20.00 exacta wager, (Wood Memorial).
On March 27th, TTF worked a bullet 4 furlongs in 47 flat, (1/19) for Bill Mott.
Wow Bill …. you will be racking a record payout of at least $10,000 if you hit that Exacta …
You made me remember a famous Italian handicapper in my hometown (El Tigre) in the 70’s and 80’s named Piccolino … When a race was wide open he would say “All of them got four legs so anyone can win” … it sounded funnier in Spanish with his thick Italian accent.. I would make impressions of him and make everyone laugh…!
But you will be laughing to the bank if your hedge bet materializes…!
Hi Nelson
I got a good laugh out of your post, and yes that would be a nice hit.
Possible, but not probable.
My superfecta p/w wager, which I posted on an earlier post, seems more plausible.
Good luck this weekend.
Happy Birthday Steve and many more visual years .
Thanks Chris.
Happy Birthday Steve. In honor, I listened to the classic Beatles 1968 song “Birthday”.
A true classic like you.
Lol. Thanks John.
Happy birthday, Steve. Your writing is a thing of beauty. Thanks for the gift you give us—your wonderful columns. Live long & prosper.
Thank you so much
Reports I’m getting fom Japan is that things ae looking positive, but still no official decision They must be hanging around American owners too much.
The tariffs implementation might be causing an issue with Japan and possibly the Euro/Middle East.
LOL.
LOL was reply to Steve.
Steve, you share a birthday with Serena’s Song.
She turns 33 today.
Wow, goid for her
Oops. good for her.
Happy Birthday Steve
like a fine Pine Ridge Hollow Mountain Cabernet you have aged wonderfully……..
Lol thank you Deacon
Thanks for that Lynda. I feel Serena Song never gets the full credit of what she achieved both on the track and as a broodmare.
Saw a video of her at Denali Stud today.
She looks absolutely amazing for her age.
Had private visit with SS over dozen years ago.
Best birthday wishes a perfect Santa Anita /wood /Dubai World Cup and blue grass Tuesday to all celebrate 🎉 we really appreciate u 🙏
Sounds great to me. Thank you
Luxor Cafe’s connections stated that there would be a decision made by “mid-week” as to whether they’ll ship their colt over for the Derby. Well, here it is Friday, and still no announcement. I wonder what the holdup is on that decision.
If there’s anyone out there that has heard the latest news relating to that decision, I would appreciate hearing from you.
Thanks.
Bill, I have antennas up all over.
Not heard a word.
Thanks for the reply, Lynda.
After watching his impressive win in the Fukuryu Stakes, closing like a freight train, I thought about placing a futures wager on him in Pool 6, currently at 20-1. Obviously, I will not place a wager on Luxor Cafe if that announcement is not made by tomorrow. Pool 6 closes at 4:00 eastern time.
Several Japanese sources are still on Twitter, mentioning they are monitoring how Luxor Cafe came out of the race. No decision has been made as of Noon today, but Churchill Downs did not cross them off their updated list.
Thanks.
Thanks, Derbyologist.
I’m wonder if that decision will be made prior to the close of Pool 6, or after it closes at 4:00 pm. The longer it takes for the connections take to make that decision, the more it appears they will not ship over. Just my opinion.
My source said no decision yet, but looking positive.
Thanks, Steve.
Thank you Steve.
I heard that Trump banned him from entering the country to ensure that an American horse wins the Derby.
LOL
OMG. Kinda sassy of you.
Luxor Cafe is as American as Apple pie. Well as Ametican as Apple pie used to be.
Check out his pedigree.
Hi Lynda
Luxor Cafe’s sire, American Pharoah needs no introduction, however, his dam side is what struck a chord with me. His 2nd dam’s sire, Miswaki, produced Black Tie Affair, with 18 wins, 9 places and 6 shows, earning $3.3 million in 45 career starts. In addition, Miswaki produced the great mare, Urban Sea, the dam of Galileo and Sea of Stars.
Suffice to say Luxor Cafe’s make up reflects a significant amount of speed, class and stamina, top and bottom.
If his connections decide to take a shot in the Derby, he’ll be a serious contender, IMO.
Hi Bill, potential is certainly there!
He didn’t ban him but he will have a “Tariff” put on him …. he has to run with 140 lbs !!!
LOL.
The horse is taking money in the Derby Future Pool#6. Odds pretty close to ML.
Happy Birthday Steve Haskin… How does if feel to have one eye 40 years younger than you …!?
I’m happy the races at Meydan have been pushed back an hour for two reasons. One, and most importantly, I’m glad the horses will (hopefully) have cooler temps to run in. Two, the later start time means I’ll be able to watch Straight No Chaser’s race live!
DWC Day and Derby preps–should be a terrific Saturday!
Happy BDay Mr Haskin’s !!! Hope it is a Great One !!!
Happy Birthday, Steve!
You are a treasure!
Being generally “out of it” in January and February and then on vacation for nearly the entire month of March, I am just now coming to the Secretariat website and Steve Haskin’s always informative and entertaining analysis of the prep races leading up to the Kentucky Derby. Shame on me for having missed so much great writing in the past 9 weeks, but here I am finally at Week Ten, better late that never as they say. I am just starting to sort out my top picks, and as I have always been predisposed to a big rolling closer ever since Victory Gallop those many years ago (how is the old boy anyway? still kicking around at age 30 I hope) I am really interested in the mid-rangers and closers this year who may be a good fit at 1 1/4 miles, Final Gambit, Sandman and Tappan Street. I will have to see how this coming weekend goes, and then how they all train up to the Derby to see how it all pans out. In all of it I’m really rooting for Elliot Walden and his crew of horsemen and women. I’d love to see another WinStar win for them. Thanks, Steve, for all the great writing!
Your homework is to read the previous nine and take a quiz on what you missed. :). Thanks for catching up to us.
Wow! That is some homework assignment!!!
Happy Birthday Steve!
Best wishes for many, many more trips around the sun.
A day to celebrate. May you remain “Forever Young”, Steve.
Thanks Lynda and Dewey.
All the best, Steve. It’s a fabulous weekend of racing and into next week.
He gets the rail at Meydan and will be tough to beat.
Tough to beat, indeed, Justin. Forever Young is all heart and gives his all each and every race. I so enjoy watching him run.
What about a happy birthday for Statesman?
We can all wish him one if he wins tomorrow. For now, let’s celebrate STEVE’s birthday. May you enjoy many more, Steve.
OK!
One of the most meticulous trainers in America is Claude McGaughey 111. After reviewing Stateman PPs I have decided to make him my Key horse in the Wood.
Stateman made 2 starts in August 2024, which included his debut. It is unusual to see a horse from McGaughey’ barn make 2 starts in the same month particularly a 2YO. The colt finished 3rd on debut and 7th on turf in his 2nd start off short rest. After one dirt/turf start, it appears it was back to drawing board.
The colt didn’t re-emerge until 11 weeks later in an 8F MSW in which he finished a badly beaten 4th by 11L. It appears 11 weeks between starts didn’t yield the desired result. As a result, an additional 7 weeks was given.
He showed up at Tampa Bay in a 1m 40yds MSW and won at the generous price of 7/1. He remained at the venue for his 4th start and won whilst displaying impassive turn of foot. The way he lowered his head whilst coming forwards is reminiscent of A P Indy.
With Empire Maker as dam sire and Lord At War and Secretariat as 2nd & 3rd dam sires. This constitution colt is sitting on go and will likely be the one closing best in the lane.
I’m also hoping that Statesman performs well in the Wood Memorial but the weather conditions are of concern.
David,
Stateman’s dam retired after winning the 10F Personal Ensign (G1) in 2:02.37. One has to search long and hard to find a mare with a 10F win in a G1 stakes with a progeny on many KD Trails
His 2nd dam La Geuriere who was produced from a Secretariat mare, was a G1 winner over 9F.
This dam line is phenomenal and must have the prospect of producing a KD winner.
Thank you, Counter Point. If you go further back in the on the dam side you’ll spot Priceless Gem. Not only did Priceless Gem defeat Buckpasser in the Futurity Stakes but she is the dam of the immortal Allez France.
I’ve been hoping for Statesman to improve over the months, let’s hope things go his way in the Wood Memorial on Saturday.
Davids, off topic but Constitution Hill needs to be retired!!!
Wow, he has a perfect record, Lynda. For a hurdler, that’s amazing. Maybe this is the time to ask what the difference is between hurdle, steeplechase and timber races. I’ve only seen steeplechases, and that was long ago at Saratoga.
Ms B, he has fallen twice recently.
A couple of fans he fell and everyone thought he had broken his nrck.
Yikes. That’s always the danger with jumping. He’s more than earned a comfy retirement.
Think he is trying to tell his owner’s something.
I think definitions are somewhat different in England, maybe.
I know what the Grand National is, that is a steeplechase, I think, LOL
And I know what point to point is, at least in the United States.
Had an annual point to point every year in my hometown. Know someone who rode a POA in that event.
When I think cross country, I usually associate that with the Olympics, 3 day eventing which includes dressage, show ring jumping and cross country.
Cross country usually has manufactured jumps and water hazards.
Point to point in US, at least the ones I have attended do not. Lots of uphill and downhill over creeks and fallen trees, brush piles, rockpiles and board fences.
Point to point requires a lot of acerage, which is getting more amd more scarce in the US.
Will let David’s define for us.
Here’s a short answer, ha ha, with National Hunt or jumps racing. There are ‘hurdles’ and ‘steeplechase’ fences.
Hurdles are smaller and the intention is for less experienced jumpers while steeplechase fences are larger and more daunting.
Hence a natural progression like flat racing maiden etc.
Thank you!
Simple, easy to understand definitions.
Thanks, Davids and Lynda. My hunch was that steeplechase jumps were more challenging, and you confirmed it. Now if I can just figure out what a “bumper” is.
Thanks Lynda, hope you are ok with all that dangerous weather. I gave up with the steeplechase/hurdle races a long while back now. It’s thrilling to watch I know but the carnage on the track at some events just became too much. Just flat racing now, not that flat racing doesn’t have its negatives either.
I cannot watch it either Davids, just keep up with it.
Lossiemouth won that race. She is such a lovely grey mare.
The storms that are hitting Keeneland are not here.
Our area does have a chance of a severe weather outbreak on Sunday.
Just comes with living in the South. One tries to prepare as best we can, hope for the best and get weather alerts. The ones at night are the worst.
Thank you for caring!
The last time I followed the chasers was when Desert Orchard ruled, late 80s early 90s, beautiful grey gelding with amazing charisma. England adored him, “Dessie” was a rock star.
The Ortiz brothers have made a habit of filling out the exacta and could very well do it again in the Blue Grass Stakes. Irad was aboard Owen Almighty in five of his six starts but will jump aboard River Thames on this occasion. Jose will be his replacement aboard Owen Almighty. Both jockeys are excellent riders, but at this stage of their respective careers, I would rate Irad as the better of the two.
I was impressed with River Thames when he trounced the field in a 75K AOC race at GP, going a mile in 1:36.34, drawing off by 6 1/2 lengths. Subsequent to that race, I placed him at #1 on my top 12 Derby Rankings. In the following weeks, I dropped him down a few notches and replaced him with Journalism, Sovereignty, Citizen Bull, etc., etc. He looked like the winner in the FOY, but Sovereignty caught him at the wire.
Per Todd Pletcher, “River Thames lost focus” which could explain his 2nd place finish.
That said, I believe River Thames is the horse to beat in the Blue Grass and is the deserving favorite, at 5/2. With respect to Owen Almighty, the obvious question, can he carry his impressive speed over 9 furlongs?
I’ll play a $50.00 straight exacta, with River Thames over Owen Almighty.
Safe trips to all.
I will let you know my Blue Grass Super or Trifecta after watching the first days of racing there before the race… I need how the speed is faring the first two days ….
Bill,
Good Luck with your straight exacta.
I consider it a very risky wager. TP hasn’t won a KD prep and despite the BG attracting a small field it is very competitive.
East Avenue is returning to the scene of his most impressive win. He has been working lights out. If the delivers his A game, I hardly believe River Thames can defeat him.
Admiral Dennis won a 1turn mile at CD in 1:35+. River Thames won a 1Turn mile at GP in 1:36+ Admiral Dennis closed 17L of a 24L gap from last in the Rebel contested on a super-fast surface. If he breaks alertly, he must be formidable entrant.
Render Judgment finished 2nd in the VA Deby competed in a NTR. That fast surface took him out of his comfort zone, but he was seen fighting to hold 2nd after chasing wicked fractions. His best career performance was recoded at Keeneland.
The above 3 entrants are formidable with good credentials.
From my perspective the prospect of your exacta hitting is extremely remote. But it’s a horserace and on any given Tuesday any result is possible.
Jose Ortiz has done really well at Fair Grounds and when he rides at Oaklawn. He found a goldmine when hooking up with Cherie Devaux. Of course, he won at the BC on More Than Looks for her.
I heard a commentator call Cherie Devaux an “up and comer”. Man, she’s already here.
Hey Bill …. With the scratch of Hill Road I will replace him with 30/1 homebred Omaha Omaha …
We know that Captain Cook likes the sloppy track at Aqueduct and he excels at the distance …
So, I plan a ($36) Trifecta wheeling 2-Captain Cook for 1st, 2nd and 3rd in combination with 1-Rodriguez (5/2), 7-Grande (5/1), 8-Passion Rules (12/1) and 12-Omaha Omaha (30/1)…
If Passion Rules and Omaha Omaha get there it would be a five-figure payout …
In the UAE Derby I am leaning toward a $24-Trifecta Box with 1-Admire Daytona (12/1), 2-Don in the Mood (10/1), 4-Flood Zone (4/5), 6-Heart of Honor (4/1)
In the Santa Anita Derby I am daring to go for a $1 (straight) Trifecta: 1-Journalism, 4-Barnes, 2-Citizen Bull.
Good luck in all your forecasts this weekend Bill!
Hi Nelson
Thanks for providing your thoughts on the Wood, UAE Derby and the SA Derby.
With respect to the Wood, Sand Devil might blow up your trifecta, but please don’t let me influence your wager.
In the Wood, I plan on keying Captain Cook, Sand Devil and Grande on top, in the top three slots, with All underneath in the 4th slot (1,3,4,8,10,11,12), in a $1.00 super p/w.
That is: 2,5,7/ 2,5,7/2,5,7/ 1,3,4,8,10,11,12. I’ll flip that over, (All/ 2,5,7/ 2,5,7/ 2,5,7).
In the Blue Grass, I plan on playing a $50.00 straight exacta wager, using River Thames on top of Owen Almighty.
I don’t plan of betting the SA Derby or the UAE derby.
Good luck with your wagers, Nelson.
I understand your faith in Sand Devil as he is an excellent runner who could very well encroach into the Trifecta and even more likely in the Superfecta.
My assumption is that the son of Violence could get “discouraged” if he is not able to pass Rodriguez in a likely speed battle … and it would be harder to fight back at 9 furlongs… again Bill, is only an assumption but anything can happen including a bad break by Rodriguez or that the Californian despises the wet track…
and Sand Devil’s dilemma would be that if he tries to rate then Rodriguez could go with no pressure whatsoever from the only fast horse in the field…
Sorry to be skeptical but I have lost trust in speedballs lately … you may understand my feeling around possible suicidal paces… Ho Ho !
Hey Nelson, do they ALLOW trifecta betting on a 5-horse race in California? Whatever the answer is, I’m already laughing.
Yes Ms B… the race allows $1 Exacta and $1 Trifecta … no Superfecta !
Anyway, I am betting a straight Tri … it is 1 Dollar that could pay 5 or 6 to 1 if Barnes finishes second…
you know… the fun of watching the race supersedes any possible bet in the Santa Anita Derby… let me laugh with you!
Watching is always more fun when you have some money on the line, even if it’s just a token amount. I’m going to bet the race because I always bet the race. Probably a 1/4/2,5 trifecta for a couple bucks while singling the 1 in a few multi-race gimmicks.
That’s rigth Justin … it is always more fun when we put some money on our predictions … especially if there is a meager amount …after all, the feeling of just being right is priceless …
Besides the sport needs the wager to subsist … Even a dollar wager from as many fans as possible is more than welcome…
Good luck in your horizontals Justin …
Big barns 3YO KD Prep Update –
B Cox – 5
TP – Zero
BB – 2
What’s the over under that TP will win a KD prep?
No of BB shippers have emerge a winner. If Rodrique doesn’t win the Wood and Journalism wins the SA Derby. Bob will end with 2 KD Prep winners. The projected revenge on CD doesn’t appear to be on the docket. The bloom seems to off the rose for BB. He cannot afford any violations.
Brad Cox has clinically dethroned TP & BB. As specified previously. If the owners of Knicks Go showed up at either TP or BB barn after his 9 consecutive defeats. They would have been rejected. Under Cox kicks Go won s different BC race and HOTY and retired with earnings of $9.3M.
The resurrection of Knicks Go was warning to TP & BB that their dual coast dominance had come to an end.
I am of the mindset that most of the 3 year olds have little or no foundation. One, two or three races isn’t much of a solid foundation. Yeah, Justify won thje Triple Crown, he did something that was never done before with little foundation.
Horses are bred to run, not stand in the stall or graze in the fields. I like personally like a horse to have at least 2 races at age two. Back in the day Santa Anita used to have 3 furlong races & Hollywood Park had 5 furlong races.
I am not a genius at this but I have picked a few Derby winners in my time.
I also lost two Derby’s on Tiz the Law & Medina Spirit. I believe Medina Spirit was striped of his win after the fact.
I had liked Disco Time but he is no where to be found. I still like Citizen Bull & Sovereignty. I am going to try & find a couple of longshots to bet the trifecta & superfecta.
In closing, many horses win the Derby but never win another race. Lil E Tee, Monarchos,
Mine That Bird, Super Saver, Orb, Country House, & Rich Strike, Giacomo only won one other race his Derby win.
I am not saying anything that most of these bloggers don’t already know.
It is truly amazing how good a job Steve does at handicapping considering the craziness surrounding this years Run For The Roses.
Many thanks Steve, you’ve made this years journey a whole lotta fun..
The lack of foundation takes a toll. Justify never ran after the Triple Crown…Mage never won another race. Neither did the last 5 Derby winners. The goal has become to get to the Derby more than win the Derby.
It is striking how the number of starts before the Derby has been deminishing the last 50 years.
In the 70’s the average was 13, Average for Total career starts: 26
in the 80’s the average was 9.3, Average final Career Starts: 20.5
9.0 in the 90’s, Total career starts: 19.4
2000-2009: 6.0, Total career starts: 12.1
2010-2019: 5.8, Total career starts: 11.4
2020-2024: 5.2, Average career total starts: 10.2 (With Mystik Dan still counting 11+)
So far, the average starts before the Derby among the top 14 qualified horses is 6 … with the “veterans” being American Promise (10 starts if he runs in Lexington S.), Sandman, Tiztastic, and Coal Battle with 8 starts. Tappan Street would be the “rookie” with only 3.
Publisher (7), Citizen Bull, Flying Mohawk and Owen Almighty are above average with 6 pre-Derby starts.
It seems like the closers need more racing to fully develop but, of course, there are horses that mature faster than others.
So, there you have it … Stats don’t lie at least in this case!
It’s almost as though we should be looking for an elite runner who is peaking at the right time and who will never win another race. That’s nuts, but sadly, it’s also the pattern.
Big Brown (3 starts) and Animal Kingdom (4 starts) showed that just a few starts prior to a Derby win didn’t prevent post-Derby success.
If you take for example the 2018 Derby you will see that Justify and Good Magic were hastly moved to stud duties because of their credentials and comercial pedigrees.
All the other participants, except Bolt d’Oro, Enticed, and Magnum Moon could not run as a 4-year-olds due to injuries, went on to extend their campaigns.
Two were gelded (My Boy Jack and Noble Indy). If you discount those and champions Justify and Good Magic you will find that the average starts of their full campaigns is 17.3.
The longest careers were by Combatant (30 starts), Lone Sailor (27), and Bravazo (22). Audible had the least starts (11) his stud deal waited for him to run two times as a 4-year-old (Pegasus and Dubai World Cup) before retirement.
As you know, Vino Rosso went on to be champion older horse thanks to Repole’s joy for racing.
My take is that any horse can run as long as his health permits but if he is a Grade one winner early in his campaign the offers to be dragged to stud duties as soon as possible are just incontestable.
That is why the breeding deal for Journalism is good and bad… good because they need to garner a Grade One score so the fans can enjoy him doing just that; and bad because if they deem that a single nail in one of his horseshoes is not right he will be immediately retired…
Then the atypical races the comercial landscape would let us have is the one of who is having more babies and how they are selling at public auctions…
Bravo Nelson.
“a single nail in one of his horseshoes” You nailed it!
Let’s give a couple recent derby winners their due. Medina Spirit won the Shared Belief and G1 Awesome Again Stakes (and 2nd in the BC Classic) in 2021. In 2020, September Derby winner Authentic went on to a BC Classic win (and 2nd in the Preakness).
Hi Deacon, so good to see you posting! Hope all is well with you.
Totally in agreement with your post.
I think that is one reason I cheer for the underdogs like Coal Battle and for the horses that represent Japan.
Omega Omega is entered in the Wood on Saturday. If you recall he took 3rd in the Virginia Derby. Read a story about the owners last night. Just 3 guys who decided to get into the sport, bought a couple of broodmares and now have a horse on the Derby trail. Their name, On Your Left, comes from joggers and bike riders who say “on your left” when there is traffic approaching. Omaha Omaha got his name because he is by Audible and one of three owners is a big Payton Manning fan. These three are having the time of their lives enjoying where this colt is taking them.
Joy…the element that seems to be missing these days and fir a long time in this sport.
Journalism by the way already has a stud deal with Coolmore. Think we can guess where he will be going in December.
Thank you Lynda, I love reading your posts.
Yes, I haven’t been around as much.
I had a knee replacement recently & before that I had spinal fusion on my back. The old back was arthritic. I am on the mend & I can’t for the day where I can golf again.
Good luck to you & all your selections.
Great story about On Your Left stable, Lynda, which I didn’t know. Just to tweak your explanation, cyclists say “on your left” as they are passing slower movers on a bike or running path. As a (very slow) cyclist, I only occasionally get to use it, but I’ve been saying it for 40 years.
Sand Devil, my pick in the Wood Memorial, is listed at 8-1 on the morning line. He’s currently listed at 99-1 on Derby Futures Pool 6, which opened today. I’ll keep an eye on those Futures odds in the next couple of days and see if those enticing odds last through Saturday.
Grande, 7/2 on the morning line, 99-1 in Pool 6
Passion Rules, 8-1 on the morning line, 99-1 in Pool 6
Rodriguez, 4-1 on the morning line, 74-1 in Pool 6
Captain Cook, 4-1 on the morning line, 42-1 in Pool 6
Note, Pool 6 closes before the start of the Wood.
Hill Road spiked a fever and Bear Claw Necklace running in Gulfstream Allowance. Out of Wood Memorial. Field down to 10.
Thanks very much. I enjoy your podcast. You do a great job.
Thanks, I would like to get you on sometime this summer after the Triple Crown Season and talk about 70’s and 80’s racing.
Sure. Are you talking audio?
Those with Future Pool wagers must be cursing their luck.
Yes, indeed. I made a small wager on Hill Road just minutes before I got the news that he was out. Such is the risk of Future Pool wagering. Sigh!
Some are still betting money on him. Shame on CD for not suspending wagers on this horse.
Journalism seems to the firm #1 KD to emerge the winer of KD 2025. This is understandable as both Journalism and Barnes were assigned 100 plus Beyers.
In comparison, Sovereignty has not even cracked 100 for any of his starts on the Equibase platform. To detail just how slow Sovereignty is viewed. The slow Sandman whom he defeated by 5L in the Street Sense has been assigned 100 plus for his last 3 starts by Equibase.
The fans of Sovereignty should be lining up to wager him in the Future Pool.
Of the two John Shirreffs’ SA Derby entrants I prefer Westwood. It matters not that he was defeated by 4 1/2L by Baeza in their last meeting. His last out effort suggest he underwent significant improvements between starts.
A May 26th foal who is the progeny of an unproven stallion out of an unraced mare fetched$ 700,000 as a yearling. He wasn’t even a select yearling This colt must have checked a number of boxes.
Westwood has the stride mechanics of a router. He was defeated over 8F in his 2nd start. The final time for that MSW was 1:37.84 In his l last out 2nd place finish over 8 1/2F the mile split 1:36.75 and he was 2L off the leader. He closed willingly after that point but found the leader to be very resolute. Another 1 second improvement should make this expensive colt competitive.
Morning line odds and pps for SA Derby…
1.Journalism 6/5
2. Citizen Bull 9/5
3. Westwood 20-1
4. Barnes 3-1
5. Baeza 6-1
Citizen Bull will leave the gate favored..
A learning from Final Gambit is that speed ratings cannot substitute a good assessment of replays and that Brad Cox places his horses where they are most favored to win.
That is the case of Passion Rules (Friesan Fire) in the Wood Memorial. If you watch the replays of his 3 starts you find remarkable he is undefeated given his messy ways: very slow breaks in his last two despite showing some early speed in his debut, awful lead changes, erratic in the homestretch and sligth paddling of his right front leg.
But Passion Rules finds a way to win with powerful final rushes…
His past speed ratings (Brisnet and Equibase) are not among the top ten fastest in the Wood but again, if he becomes more professional (like Tappan Street finally did) he will be in the mix…
You may remember his sire Friesan Fire as the Derby favorite after winning all the Derby preps in Louisiana.
Damsire Touch Gold and second damsire Street Cry provide Passion Rules with enough stamina to prevail at 9 furlongs and longer… hence his 3 starts at two turns…no too shabby for a $40K Marlyland bred…!
Calumet Farm got good numbers with longshots and you may remember the good runs of Oxbow, Bravazo, Bourbonic, Hence, Patch, and Sonneteer at some point in the Derby trails..
Having said that, It is hard to overlook Captain Cook’s exceptional Thoro-Graph of 2 following a 9 and 6.75 as a 2-year-old…
The closest TG are for:
Rodriguez 4 3/4, 4 1/4, and 6.
Sand Devil 5, 4 2/4, 6
Hill Road 5, 6
Grande 5 2/4, 5 2/4
Omaha Omaha 9 2/4, 5 3/4
Passion Rules is bound to a jump after his 7 3/4, 7 3/4 and 7 in his last… we shall see.
My $24 Trifecta for the Wood would be 2-Captain Cook for 1st and 2nd with 1-Rodriguez, 6-Hill Road, 7-Grande, and 8-Passion Rules
The payout would be nice if Passion Rules were to win with Grande getting third…
Good luck and safe trips to all…
Passion Rules is blessed with stamina. His grandsires each won a Belmont. Friesan Fire received stamina on his dam side from Bint Marscay by way of Marscay and Passion Rules’ fourth dam, Run Columbia is all stamina. Sidenote: Run Columbia produced only three babies, who ran a total of 195 races with a record of (44-32-32), highlighted by Frugal Doc a Maryland Million winner.
Rob
Passion Rules looks enticing in KD Futures Pool 6, at 99-1.
Thank you so much Rob for your comprehensive information on the distaff family of Passion Rules…
Your comments greatly contribute to the unrivalled quality of this blog…
I always thought that Touch Gold, being a son and maternal grandson of two exceptional broodmare sires, Deputy Minister and Buckpasser respectivel, would eventually be a good Classic damsire…. the Belmont Stakes victor does not appear in the pedigree of any Derby winner but He’s not done that bad with his daughters producing 70 Black type horses including 6 champions. You may remember some Touch Gold maternal grandsons who were competing in the Derby trails… Upstart, Hofburg, Commissioner and Intrepid Hero; Touch Gold is also the second damsire of champion Vino Rosso…
Passion Rules is the first maternal grand son of Touch Gold vying for a Derby chance since 2015 …
Rob, Bint Marscay was a Golden Slipper winner at 6f and this distance was her best distance. Lightning fast sprinter. Her daughter, Bollinger, was best around 7f.
Baeza is a good horse, he will be behind three good horses! I have to think his stable mate will employ rabbit tactics, will that help Baeza enough? This is a huge step up—they’ve waited and planned fir this one chance–I think it’s a bridge too far, for a colt with promise….who might return in The Preakness..
My thoughts exactly regarding Baeza in Preakness, however thinking he has shot to prevail Saturday.
If he wins the Preakness, his mother will have produced winners of all three Triple Crown races, and that’s three different horses That would be amazing, and I would love to see it.
He may be a race or two away but his Thoro-graph pattern and Brisnet pace figures are amazingly strong . See see y 8 1 ju CD 6f
Don’t know where that garble came from and i.m too lazy to go get rid of it.
Steve
I thought it was code
Barnes will get first run at Citizen Bull Saturday, his three race career has shown improvement all along….watching just him, in the San Felioe—he never lost his stride, after being passed—it was his first two turn race….
I can “see” a slow pace…Barnes coming to Citizen Bull and winning—Journalism finishing well for 3rd—and all three coming to Churchill with big looks….
I’m glad Baeza is in the race. IMO this ensures an honest pace . Even though Journalism doesn’t need to win, I believe he will. He’s so adaptable that he doesn’t need a hot pace to close into to win the race. If the pace is slower, you can bet Journalism will be closer , like he was in the Los Al Futurity.
Joe, agreed.
The deep and contentious Blue Grass Stakes gets the morning line it deserves:
River Thames 5-2
Owen Almighty 3-1
East Avenue 3-1 (!?!?)
Chancer McPatrick 7-2
Burnham Square 9-2
Ouch!
Friesan Fire- Notable information
Was a RNA at $725,000 at a yearling Sale
Career earnings $679,356
Probably one of only two sons of A P Indy to win over 6F. (Debut winner over 6F)
won all 3 KD prep at the Fairground (Lecomte/Risen Star/LA Derby)
Was the Post time favorite in 2009 KD. (Finished 18 of 19)
Entered stud in 2012
Standing at Country Life Farm for $1,000
Covered 14 mares in 2021 with 10 reported live foals
The stallion business can brutal. Who could have imagined that an A P Indy stallion, who was out of 3times graded stakes winning mare, that swept the KD Preps at the FG and who was the post time favorite in a KD, would be standing for $1,000 at an obscure farm.
Brad Cox and Calumet Farms’ Wood Memorial entrant Passion Rules represents a rare citing of a Friesan Fire progeny in a KD Prep. The colt is out of mare sired by Belmont winner Touch Gold and is undefeated in its 3 career starts, all of which have been beyond a mile but less than 9F.
His career starts over theses extended distance suggest he is devoid of both tactical and late race speed. This translates to a grinder. But even grinders can make their way to the winner’s enclosures for which this colt has a perfect record.
The Surface at Aqueduct can be is deep and tiring. Given the final times returned in the Jerome, (1:40+) Wither (1:51+) and Gotham (1:39+), the surface seems to be at its slowest and tiring best. Sometimes what it takes to win at Aqueduct is either class or stamina. Passion Rues appears to be devoid of former but has the latter in abundance
It appears the 2025 renewal of the Wood will be a test of stamina on a slow surface that will be labeled either muddy or sloppy. From a genetic perspective these kinds of conditions might suite Passion Rules.
Friesan Fire most impressive win and the one that might have propelled him to DK favoritisms, was recorded in the LA Derby contested on a Sloppy/Sealed surface. His 71/2L win in 1:43 plus was breathtaking.
The Calumet Farms’ owned Bourbonic recorded an astronomical upset in the 2021 renewal of the Wood. The TP trained colt closed from last on very testing surface to win at 72/1. A top barn with a 72/1 winner. Only this longshot hunter had him.
Further, Calumet has been rather cavalier with what is often précised as the operations’ misplacement of its horses. As a result, many have been ignored only for them to deliver shocking performances. Given the farms recent racing history. I consider Passion Rules a must use in all wagers.
Just in case!
EDIT- perceived as the operation’s misplacement of its horses.
It’s amazing this horse is unbeaten considering how green he still is. He cant stay straight and his leads are all over the place and he still keeps winning. He’s run vs weak fields but once he gets his act together he has a lot of talent and a big turn of foot.
If Luan Machado can get East Avenue to stalk just a bit like the horse was doing when he ran into the “freakish” Magnitude in the Risen Star, I think he can get first run on
River Thames(Maclean’s Music) and Owen Almighty(Speightstown) who will both be testing their limits at a mile and an eighth.
Two problems with that scenario: #1-East Avenue will be adding blinkers for the first time which could enhance his speed, causing him to get into a Velazquez/Bejarano type throw-down with Owen Almighty & #2-Steve Haskin made a compelling argument that River Thames may not be distance limited. We’ll see on……………………..Tuesday!?!?!?
Is Keeneland going to be able to compete with Parx, Mahoning Valley, and Turf Paradise on Tuesday? Maybe they can come up with a special Coast to Coast pick-4 between those four tracks.
But seriously, it had to be done. I’m not 100% sure, but I think that the last time I played on a Tuesday Horseshoe Indianapolis was still called Indiana Grand. Rodney Prescott was my hero in those days.
I just needed to refute what Randy Moss said about Luxor Cafe “not being so impressive by the clock”… he said that there were seven (7) races at Nakayama ran at 1800 meters and four were faster than Luxor Cafe’s…. he mixed Turf races with Dirt races at Nakayama…of course the turf races are faster than dirt races.
There were only FOUR races ran at 1800 meter on the DIRT…And Luxor Cafe’s time was the second fastest behind an Allowance winner named Ideal Igossol (son of Thunder Snow) a 4 year old who has won 4 of this last 5 starts.
Luxor Cafe clocked 112.1 finishing in 12 flat and Ideal Igossol time was 111.7 finishing in 12.4… so the 3/10 second is about one length …
The other two 1800 meter races on DIRT were for maiden 3-year-olds won by Long Way Home in 115.2; and an MSW for older mares won by Aerial in 115.1…
So Luxor Cafe’s 112.1 (1:52) at Nakayama is equivalent to 1:49 at Gulfstream Park as we have discussed before… and at least 1.5 seconds faster than the standard there…
In all fairness Luxor Cafe was not only impressive visually but also very very fast for the superheavy track of Nakayama…
The same Randy Moss that has a Brinks truck follow him every time he goes to the track and wins boatloads of $$$$?
Yes Zany… What else can I say?
Fukuryu Randy!
It’s rare to see Miswaki show up in a horse’s chart. Add to that the presence of Ribot and Flower Bowl.
The above combination gives Luxor Cafe great stamina and most likely sheer determination. Should his connections decide to give the horse a chance to compete in the KD….I would take great notice. He is very talented, more so than about 95% of the American KD contingent.
Totally agree Zany … on top of that the cross is already proven with Cafe Pharoah who is a three-time Group One winner and 3rd in the Saudi Cup …
Miswaki acquired legendary stature thanks to the fabulous Urban Sea… a true pillar of the breeding landscape in Europe and Australia…
I also hope Luxor Cafe can compite in the Derby…
The decision was supposed to be made yesterday … but there is nothing reported in the main media…
Just adding to your thrust, Nelson. Luxor Cafe ran the Fukuryu Stakes 2 seconds or around 10 lengths faster than T O Password won the Fukuryu Stakes last year and he performed quite well in the Kentucky Derby last year – 5th.
That is a good point Davids …. T O Password was 5th in the Derby only 6 lengths behind Mystik Dan…. and his time in the Fukuryu was 114.1 (1:54.1).
Since then, the son of Copano Rickey finished 5th 2 lengths behind the winner on January 5 in the Shofuku Stakes at Nakayama with his time being 1:53 … slower than the 1:52 of Luxor Cafe at the very same track…
the other times for the same distance for the 1800 meters on DIRT that day were 1:56.1. 1:56.9 and 1:55… so, again the more I gather the times for that distance at Nakayama the more convinced I am that Luxor Cafe is really a very good runner…
Randy Moss is hung up on speed figs.
A result of being on the Beyer Speed Figure team since the last century, perhaps?
How clever. Point is he almost believes as if it’s the be all- end all.
You are rigth Mike … my problem is that he got to be more careful and just check which races are on dirt and which are on turf … many people rely on his observations and what he said about Luxor Cafe was simply unfair …
Nelson, your comments are always spot on. Frankly, I take very little he says seriously. Yes, agree with you regarding Luxor Cafe.
I’ll go with Baeza to spring an upset in the Santa Anita Derby. After he was trounced by Rodriguez, on Jan. 4th, he came back to show marked improvement, going a mile in 1:37.84, drawing off by 4 3/4 lengths. In three career starts, his Equibase Speed figures have increased significantly, (82, 94, 104) which is indicative of a horse that has yet to regress. His breeding is top notch, by McKinzie, out of a Big Brown mare, he should continue to improve as the distance increases, IMO.
On March 15th, he worked 6 furlongs in 1:10 and change, followed by his latest 6-furlong work in 1:12 flat, on March 29th. It appears John Shirreffs his colt well cranked for a big effort in the Santa Anita Derby.
BTW, Baeza is 60-1 in Derby Futures Pool 6.
Edit: John Shirreffs has his colt well cranked.
Nicely outlined case for supporting Breza in the SA Derby.
The results that Rodriquez recorded after he defeated Breza by 7L, for which he was assigned an Equibase 105, warrants review. This review can be used as somewhat of a measure of the chances of Breza against some of opponents Rodriquez failed to be competitive.
After Rodriquez impressive MSW win he contested the Bob Lewis. He was defeated by Citizen Bull by 3 3/4L in a time a full second slower than the 1:35 plus he recorded in his MSW win.
Rodriquez was beaten by 111/4L in the very fast San Vicente. The mile split in the race was 1:36.13. Surely, the 1:35 plus Rodriquez should have been more competitive in the San Vicente. But sometimes competition matters.
So, Rodriquez was no match for the top 3 in the SA Derby field. How is an opponent he defeated by 7L, can be remotely expected to be competitive?
For Baeza to be competitive, it will take significant improvement between starts. Add the 7L deficit to Rodriquez and the 11L defeat he suffered in the San Vicente and Baeza will have to improve 3 seconds or more to have a shot.
The above is one way of looking at the fortunes of the colt. But there is another. His trainer is better than BB. Shirreffs is accustomed to winning big races with entrants perceived as having very little chance. Giacomo 50/1 winner of the KD and Tiago 29/1 winner of the 2007 SA Derby, comes to mind. What has been done in the past can be done again. It just takes a horse with the right talent level.
I have but one reservation regarding Baeza. Both his previous half siblings were KD entrants. For a mare to produce 3 conductive foals to start in the KD is probably unprecedented. It isn’t a bit of history that I think is in the making.
But as I usually state. History choses its own for its writing.
CP
“For a mare to produce 3 conductive foals to start in the KD is probably unprecedented”.
For Puca to produce Mage, winner of the 2023 Kentucky Derby and Dornoch, winner of the 2024 Belmont Stakes, followed by Baeza as a possible KD entrant, that would indeed be unprecedented.
Obviously, Baeza needs to win the SA Derby to secure enough points to make the Derby starting gate. As I mentioned earlier, Baeza checks a lot of boxes and appears to be a colt that’s clearly improving relative to speed figures, and his workouts have been outstanding of late. I suspect John Shirreffs will instruct Berrios to go for the lead and play a “catch me if you can” strategy.
Safe trips to all.
BTW, would you care to share your selection in the SA Derby?
Happy to hear that the BGS will be postponed until Tuesday. Not happy to know that, as a result, we won’t be reading Rankings Week 11 until Wednesday or Thursday.
There’s something odd about the move of the UAE Derby from the U.S. Road to the Derby to the newly named European-Middle East Road to the Derby. It’s a long overdue change, but… the UAE Derby (100 points to winner) is preceded by four races that award 10 points to the winner followed by two races that award 20 points to the winner.
The tight scheduling of the first six races precludes a single horse from entering more than three of them. Therefore, if another horse wins the UAE Derby, it will be the Europe/MidEast entry in the Ky Derby if the owners accept the invitation. The current leaderboard after those first six races has two horses tied for the lead with 20 points each.
Am I wrong about this? It’s such a ridiculous setup that I must be wrong. But the mastermind is CDI, so I may be right.
AAs of now it looks as if we will post the Rankings as usual on Monday and update it after the Blue Grass with a revised Rankings on Wednesday.
Great idea!
Steve
Sorry for you , extra writing and yeah for us 2 blasts of your outlook in one week .
Stay safe all if you are in the path of these storms.
This system threatens a number of states.
Guess I will back after all 3 preps this weekend and next Tuesday and the Dubai Derby.
Good luck with your wagers and safe racing for all.
Part 2
Thanks everyone for your concerns (from below) I had totally unexpected company show up at my front door and spent the rest of the evening and early today with them.
Now back to were I was. On the Into Mischief young 3 year old ( They never seem to make it to 4 or 5 … breeding shed or injuries … the good ones that is) If you can get them to rate or come from behind I think you have a better chance of winning races at a distance like the Kentucky Derby then a frontrunner style. And this leads me back to Barnes and the SA Derby. He needs points to get to the Kentucky Derby. Citizen Bull and Journalism do not. Baffert has already stated the Citizen Bull wants the lead ( failed experiment with Mike Smith in the Del Mar Futy) and I fully expect him to let him do that on Saturday. So who is going to be the sacrificial lamb to go after him??? If Baffert sends Barnes after him I think he compromises both horses from winning the race but also Barnes chances of getting enough points because it will just make it easier for Journalism to cruise right by them in the stretch. I don’t expect Journalism to go after CB as it could take too much out of him. John Sherriffs Baeza needs points but I don’t expect him to go after CB so that leaves ….Westwood (Sherriffs other entry who has the same owner. ) to soften up CB. If I am Baffert I instruct J Hernandez out of the gate to take Barnes right to the back of he pack and have him sit about no more than 10 lengths off the lead going into the first turn, when he gets to part of the race were he is 5 furlongs from the finish he should just have the jockey just let him go. If Barnes is made of anything he should be flying down the stretch. If he doesn’t respond and sulks then you try and make him the best miler in the country. Met Mile anyone ?!?!?
Journalism totally surprised me with his performance in the San Felipe. Did not think he was ready enough to give the performance he did. If he repeats that same performance everyone in the SA Derby is running for 2nd. He could be a FREAK !!!!
Most anticipated races for me.
I would say the Lexington Stakes is my # 1. I want to see if American Promise is the real deal (is he a contender or pretender) If he repeats what he did in the VA Derby we may have another Justify in the making. If he flounders we probably have another flash in the pan.
Next, would be the SA Derby. Can CB get the distance? Can Journalism repeat what he did in the San Felipe? Will Baffert try and rate Barnes ?!?!?
Next the Bluegrass (now that it is moved to Tuesday) A lot of questions and hopefully we get some answers about East Avenue, Burnham Square, Chancer McPatrick and River Thames. Burnham Square not firing in his last race until near the end of the race is still a puzzle to me. Maybe the jockey change might make a diff. but who knows.
Steve , got to say, like someone else pointed out earlier, a very very good synopsis of contenders for the Kentucky Derby this week. With all the late starts by so many of the favorites this year it has to be one of your biggest challenges this year. You have been the Guiding Light for us.
Good luck to all this weekend and now next week !!!
Oh one other thing I think Cornucopian can make a “Great” Belmont horse if CB or Barnes is not running for the TC. Otherwise he needs to find easy spot for him. Peter Pan?
Don’t usually play the KDFW but will be putting a small wager on Barnes , Burnham Square and American Promise this weekend … just a hunch.
Downthestretch-regarding the SA Derby. I have three simple words for you and others….’expect the unexpected’.
Wouldn’t expect anything different. Thanks John
Thanks for your comments Down; if Barnes is 10 lengths of the lead at Anita he has no chance unless pace is 45 and change which I don’t expect. Barnes will be a couple lengths off the lead in front of Journalism. So he will have pass CB in the stretch and hold off Journalism. Won’t be an easy task
If he is too close and CB is running a 48 half and 1:12 3/4 then if that happens CB will probably win. If the pace is faster than Journalism will probably cruise by them both. I would rather see someone else push CB and and let Barnes shadow Journalism and hopefully get the jump on him. Barnes needs to get 2nd. Still like my first scenario better. But in all scenarios Journalism is sneaky good.
Baeza is very fast. It’s going to be what it’s going to be.
Downthestretch, you make some interesting observations. You made me do a double-take, though, when you said that if American Promise “repeats what he did in the VA Derby we may have another Justify in the making.” Say what? Can you expand on that thought?
He is sired by Justify… like father like son !!!
Just not undefeated.
Ha! 👍🏼
Thanks for your Part 2. Downthestretch. The Santa Anita Derby is a fascinating race to contemplate I’d be surprised if Journalism was beaten but Baffert never fails to keep you guessing.
What about Baeza?
Well bred working great… you never know!!!
Yes, agreed!
I do like Baeza a lot. It’s hard to determine what the tactics might be and whether Journalism is going to put in 100% to win.
A good 2nd will serve well for Journalism.
JJ Hernandez and Baffert seem real positive with Barnes. Similar to what I’ve commented, JJ SAID IN ONLY HIS THIRD START Barnes did quite well for his first go at a two turn race. Sounds like Barnes will rate in SA Derby
Forever Young will contine to race at age 5 per a post on X from his trainer.
Provided of course he stays healthy and sound.
Mr Y also said and I am paraphrasing that it is hoped FY’s success will translate to the breeding and racing of dirt track horses in Japan.
My thoughts and prayers are with everyone to be safe in Kentucky today and Thursday through Sunday.
It would be great if FY emerges as an elite sire of top-class dirt horses. An RDM free stallion bred to local RDM free mares hold the prospect of good results to come.
American thoroughbreds are inundated with RDM (Race Day Medication). Who knows what RDMs do to the gene pool?
That’s great news.. thanks for the update Lynda.
You may remember my old post comparing the lengths of the career of the top Japanese runners vs. that of the American Stakes horses.
I expected Forever Young to go for a 5-year-old season given the history of his predecessors with Stakes quality.
You are welcome Nelson.
Yes I do recall your post.
One more thing Nelson.
Kirbarkhan has been returned to his home country and his first trainer.
Been trying to remember for some time to post the update.
He had been supposedly training up for the Saudi Cup.
Thanks Lynda… I am not surprised Kabirkhan went back after two uninspiring races at Meydan this year… hope his original trainer Kappushev Myrzabek is able to make Kabirkhan a winner in Russia and abroad eventually…
Good to hear that, Lynda … Thanks for that update.
Thanks For the news, Lynda. I wonder if there is any possibility Forever Young could stand in the US, he has the race record to attract a large crop.
Hi Davids.
I doubt Firever Young will stand in US.
Japan does not, as far as I know, shuttle their stallions.
Agree that FY would attract a large crop.
Might see some of the forward thinking breeders like Resolute send mares to Japan if possible.
This horse is so beloved in Japan and around the we world that there would probably be an uprising if he was sold. LOL
Would love to have a plushie of him.
Been meaning to tell you that I watched some videos of Sandman on X.
He has the sweetest,most gentle and kind personality.
I am starting to warm up to him (in the Detby).
One can only hope so. Resolute’s maverick approach is fascinating to watch and see how it will turn out. Good on them. They (John Stewart) has spent a small fortune around the world buying stock.
Yes, Sandman has such a sweet nature you just want him to do well.
I see the Dubai World Cup will go off at 1:30 p.m. EDT because of an extreme heat forecast. Does anyone know the post time (US) for the UAE Derby?
UAE Derby is 1900 hours in Dubai, 11:AM DST
Thanks Lynda. A bit concerned that the 3YOs will be racing in peak heat, but I’ve got all the recording options covered. Saturday is going to be a busy day for me. Looking forward to a lull next week.
1900 hours in Dubai may not correspond to our peak heat times.
Honestly do not know.
I meant the 3YOs in Dubai. At least it’s a dry heat!
Ms Blacktype, they put the entire card on YouTube pretty quickly so if you are careful to ignore a few sites etc you can watch the races at your leisure.
That’s my intention, the races start around 9 pm here Saturday night and go through Sunday early morning.
With Randwick’s glittering card of 4 Group 1 races and 5 other Group races plus a couple of Group races in Caulfield I’d be watching horse racing 24/7 which would have been ok in your 20s but now you have to be sensible. I’ll have a 5 hour break in between countries. Ha ha
Are you feeling any better? I’m gradually getting over it, fingers crossed, but work have booked us in for flu injections tomorrow so things may regress a bit after that. Ha ha
11:00am est
State of Emergency declared by Governor of Kentucky.
Keeneland cards for Friday and Saturday moved to Monday and Tuesday.
That’s much better for the runners. And there are still three important races to watch on Saturday.
Have a friend (not horse racing) in Kentucky.
He just posted on his FB page that the first round is expected to come through around 10 tonight. Hopes he and his family, farm and horses are not going to be blown into Oz.
Lives close to Lexington.
Bluegrass will be run Tuesdat April 8th…
Great news.
Interesting that the seven runners have a combined 34 career starts, and all were on fast tracks.
West coast Horse Racing is tetering—theres zero political backing….there are no Senator Ken Maddy’s around anymore….As long as Bob is training—Santa Anita will be relivant, as far as the Kentucky Derby is concerned…I’ve seen two eastern based three year olds who impress me as possible Derby winners–Sovereignty and Tappan Street….I like River Thames some—and he just may get a dream trip this Sat—I dint think Jose will duel with his brother, should he break on top—he could also keep East Avenue wide—I think the west this year—with barely any three year olds—has a couple who could run big, in early May…..I just haven’t seen very many that have “wowed” me—and there might not be that much speed this year….of course—the Derby usually does have pace—but not always….
They are not alone. Racing at Aqueduct produces similiar purses as Santa Anita. Prat, Velaquez and the Ortiz brothers are often seen as other tracks that have the money. The NYRA, which is a non-profit organization, emerged from bankruptcy about 15 or so years ago and fought tooth and nail to get the funds to rebuild Belmont Park from the state. And as recently as a couple of months ago they were behind in payments to HISA to the tune of close to $4 million. I don’t have an update with that.
Irad Ortiz is based in Florida until the spring meet in Aqueduct, he travels for special days and stakes, as do the others you mentioned, not on a weekly basis. He and most jockeys ride the stock that is at the track they’re based at, day after day.
“Other tracks that have the money” is well stated and I agree. The elephant in the room for the industry that needs to be reported on is the potential creation of a major problem that didn’t exist, IMO, is the tariff war the US government has created and what the costs will be to ALL horse breeding operations.
This what occurs when one trainer services is targeted for retention my numerous owners.
Do these owners think BB will win the KD in dead heat with two or more of his entrants?
A big lawsuit was filed in a last-ditch effort to get Muth to run in the KD. With Mystik Dam whom Muth defeated easily in the AK Derby emerging the winner of the KD.
Muth should he been matching stride with the big boy’s Fierceness and Sierra Leone. He couldn’t answer the call.
He was retired 3 races after his A K Derby win. In his last 2 races he was beaten a combined 22L.
Is this what owners really wish pay for?
Steve
After reading your thoughts on Luxor Cafe, I watched the video replay of the Fukuryu Stakes and could not have been more impressed with his turn of foot coming out of the far turn. If his connections decide to ship over, can we expect a major shakeup at the top of your Week 11 Rankings? I would think he might land at #4.
In the meantime, all we can do wait to see if he’ll ship or not ship.
Please let us know if hear anything.
Thanks, Steve
According to an article by Marcus Hersh over at DRF, the weather forecast for Keeneland over the weekend looks “dire” and the possibility of cancellation or postponement is at least on the table. Maybe just the “media table”.
There is a possibility of 8 inches of rain over the weekend and “historic” flooding. Keeneland says that they are monitoring the situation.
I hope all the people and horses stay safe.
You need to get your points early. You never know what can happen.
I should have bought an Aqueduct Form instead.
They have four turf races scheduled on Saturday at Keeneland including the 5 1/2 furlong Shakertown which is guaranteed to tear up a wet turf course.
Aqueduct won’t be a Picnic in the park either. Rain heading there as well
I was at Keeneland on April 3, 2015 when racing was canceled mid-afternoon. It rained 5 inches that day, so a similar situation is not out of the question for this weekend.
I don’t see why they don’t postpone the meeting until Sunday or Monday…..
There will be more people around the country tuning in rather than watching a washout.
DTS, exactly. Which is why I continue to hang with Tapit and Curlin dna. If Journalism wins on Saturday, then top three in the KD, Sandman, Tiztastic, and Journalism. All would be winners with abilities to go 10 furlongs and more. It would also be interesting to watch for winners this year from last years top freshman sires, Vekoma, Tiz the Law, and McKinzie.
I was inspired by a previous post about a fun exacta of Journalism and Publisher. So I got to work on other possible fun exactas:
Admiral Dennis, Captain Cook
Baeza, Rodriguez
East Avenue, Tappan Street
Hill Road, Madaket Road
Dragon, Sandman
Sand Devil, Sandman
River Thames, Flood Zone
Grande, Luxor Cafe
Citizen Bull, Tiger Twenty Four
That is great. Lol. You put a lot of thought into that.
Not too much, Steve. LOL
Nifty work Tony D
Thanks, kmi. I had a few more, but they were too obscure.
Maverick was the better pilot. Sorry Iceman.
RIP Val Kilmer.
We know that the decoupling thing in Florida looks like momentum in a troubling trend for racing. I think it is also discouraging with regard to the manner in which politicians “represent” citizens all across this country.
The committee had 70+ people show up to oppose the bill. 30 people spoke, with only 1 in support of the legislation. They still passed it.
I see this as a prime (and oft repeated) example of elected officials prioritizing corporations, not citizens. You can show up, speak eloquently and rationally, bring up the economic impact, the environmental impact, make quality of life arguments, and make an impressive showing. And then, NOTHING changes. I have seen it here in SC. “Grassroots movements” – citizens speaking out and standing shoulder to shoulder – are received with initial radio silence, then the sounds of bulldozers. They do not care.
I am sad.
Donations to politicians work wonders. Those 70+ people probably didn’t pay up.
Yep, pretty sure this is how politics works.
Thanks Katy, i have not followed Florida decoupling issue. Any chance you can explain what that means and pro/cons of the decision? Thanks again
Jeff, this is how I understand it. In Florida, racetracks with casino licenses that host thoroughbred racing are required to offer live TB racing events to maintain the casino license. Decoupling would remove that requirement, clearing the way to keep the slot machines and off track gambling going without ever having racing events.
It is to that end that Belinda Stronach is pushing for decoupling. If the bill passes both houses and is signed by the Gov, she can close the racetrack, develop it ($$$), and continue to reap the profits from her casino ($). The horsemen are fighting decoupling because it has been the death knell for several other types of racing in Florida, including dogs, QHs, and harness racing.
While I think it’s a kind of pathetic way to try to save racing in Florida (i.e., save Gulfstream as a track), I see why the horsemen are protesting it. It just isn’t a particularly clean situation on any side, in my opinion.
They got quite a few people out to show that they do not support this bill, but didn’t manage to really change minds. They just got an extension.
You say “They still passed it” after the hearing was attended by an organized group of Florida racing people. Do you think that’s how legislation should be passed or rejected? If this issue was put to a statewide vote as a referendum, it would pass. But, honestly, horse racing in the state is not something that the vast majority of Floridians care about.
Tony, it was moved out of committee per the legislative process.
If the bill is out on the ballot as a referendum it would most likely be voted in.
That is how Greyhound racing in Florida ended, voter referendum, but not for the reason you state. PETA and animal rights activist groups spent millions and millions convincing the general public that Greyhound racing was cruel.
Lynda, I understand the process. You basically repeated what I posted. And by the way, greyhound racing in Florida WAS cruel.
All that accomplished was to move Greyhound Racing out in boonies somewhere and the euthanasia of hundreds of dogs that could not be adopted.
Greyhound racing was no more cruel than horse racing is.
That’s your understanding of what was accomplished? I suggest that you stop posting misinformation and do some research.
For your information my oldest Grandaughter is in Vet School in Florida and works in a rescue there.
She lives in Florida as does my daughter, her husband and my Granddaughter’s sister.
I have personal friends who live in Florida as well.
My information comes from them.
So I guess you ate calling my Grandaughter and my personal friends “liars”?
Tony D, I think it depends.
Personally, I guess I am a part of a “special interests group 🙄,” and I have written to my Senators and Rep asking them to protect access to a prescription sedative that has been used ILLEGALLY as a street drug and mixed with opioids. This has led to human deaths. This sedative greatly improves safety for people who work with large animals, it is mildly analgesic in horses, and is one of the few approved medications for sedating bovines. I consider myself an SME on this topic, and very likely to be negatively affected if we lose access to it. By negatively, I mean kicked by a horse or unable to restrain a cow to assist her during a dystocia (a difficult birth).
This may indeed be like apples to oranges; however, I think a good point well made by a smaller group that will suffer because of legislative decisions can have an important place in the process. If they aren’t told, they don’t know, right?
My sadness regarding the Florida situation probably stems from the way the Scout plant has been forced upon us in SC. I will let you read about just how much the public hates this project, the illegal work done without proper permitting, and the decline in quality of life for people in a formerly charming and thriving smaller community in this state.
Rural life and all aspects of agriculture in my area are suffering and appear to be under attack – not from citizens, but from various levels of government.
Katy,
Belinda Stronach is behind the decoupling. Frank Stronach, her Father, wrote an editorial against it.
The bill was moved out of committee with an Ammendment that the track owners cannot shut down racing without notice and a lengthy timeline to come up for racing to come up with a plan.
I reckon Belinda is technically entitled to do whatever she wants with her property, if she can obtain the permitting. It is obvious that she wants to keep doing the easy thing and make money with the casino, not the horses. And add a Starbucks or 5 and other cookie cutter stuff. Public sentiment probably isn’t on her side with racing. I still don’t like how she’s talking about it. If she was just honest, and said, “I want to cash out. I’m tired of fighting for this. I want to never have to worry about money or what people think of how I make it again.” As it is, she is so disingenuous that I don’t believe a thing she says.
Mandella, O’Neill, Callahan, Glatt, dramatic aren’t shipping their Derby horses east—they aren’t entering in local preps….because they have none….
(d’Amato)..
R.I.P. Val Kilmer .. Played Doc Holliday in Tombstone .. “I’m your huckleberry ” … thanks and God bless.
I hope Val is at peace. Not to be glib, but cancer just flat sucks. He had it tough. Tombstone is one of my favorite movies of all time. I also loved him in the ridiculous Top Secret! and as Captain Scull in the Comanche Moon miniseries. I wonder if his family will really use his plot at Boot Hill in Tombstone, AZ?
Steve, the metaphorical kaleidoscope of reflecting mirrors, prep races with all the colour and pageantry involved, is just about ready to be twisted thus revealing the secret we have been waiting to discover. However, as we know, the revelations from the metaphorical kaleidoscope will no doubt provide varying pictures to various racing fan.
What I see in my kaleidoscope I fear is somewhat different from yours Steve, but that’s the fun of racing ‘different things, for different people’ supposedly that’s what happiness is. If I could finally rid myself of this flu/virus I’d be happier too.
Nonetheless, the most happiness for me was watching Sandman gallop away with the Arkansas Derby even with a shying away from Jose Ortiz’s encouragement. Even Andy Beyer was impressed giving the stunning grey a 99 for the effort. Beating the Florida Derby mark by some margin but who’s counting? Ha ha
This weekend’s preps couldn’t be more fascinating. Will Bob Baffert remain winless outside California or even more concerning winless in his home state? Journalism does look the best colt in California but Baffert is forever dangerous.
In New York, can Statesman bring Shug to the big dance one more time while at Keeneland can Admiral Dennis make us smile through the gloomy haze of another grey countenance. Oceans away, Heart of Honor and Flood Zone will be leading a hopeful cheer for Betsy as she endures an English Spring. Ha ha
Steve, it’s close to the end now, thank you – ‘same time, next year’?
I’m not sure what the disagreement is. The pace collapse and slow final half is fact. But I still ranked him 6th which I believe is a fair ranking considering where he was and his unpredictability. He can’t pull those antics in the Derby see
And he did get a strong Thoro-graph number
Yes, Steve, it’s the Thoro-graph numbers, pattern, you want to see that is consistent. Sandman will be a magnificent 4 year old if he gets the chance. With luck on his side the Kentucky Derby looks possible but that’s the same for all of them.
Jose Ortiz seems a good fit, the post draw – mid pack – seems ideal but it’s a long way away to be thinking like this. Just hope it doesn’t rain.
Hope you are getting better !
Just wanted to mention that Baffert won in New Mexico with Getaway Car…
Anyway, when you say that you are seeing things different it does mean you are skeptical about Journalism, Sovereignty and/or Citizen Bull? just curious…
Thanks Nelson, I was getting better but I had a compulsory flu infection today. lol Isn’t that awful, you kind of just think California, at least I must, when you think the Sunland Derby because inevitably it’s a Californian colt who wins the race.
It just didn’t register until you mentioned it – New Mexico
Journalism looks rock solid, I’m not entirely convinced with Sovereignty, Citizen Bull, Barnes, Captain Cook, Tappan Street as major threats in the Kentucky Derby. I’d have Sandman and Tiztastic above most of these at present but it’s a long month away until the Kentucky Derby. Sandman and Tiztastic appear better 10f prospects to me.
This post I will typing about what I have observed and has been on my mind the last few months.
Bob Baffert
Anybody who has followed this column for any length of time knows I am a big Bob Baffert supporter and fan and very much still am but these last few months he has become Bob Baffler to me. He has baffled me on what he is doing and not doing with his horses. I have never seen him so indecisive about what to do or place his horses (except for one Citizen Bull) His workouts and training to me have become “Pletcheresk”. He basically abandoned the 7 furlong and one mile works he used years ago to just speedball 4 to 5 and occasional 6 furlong works. That 5 furlong work he gave Citizen Bull last week in 58+ does nothing for me as this horse needs stamina building works I already know he is fast!!! 3 previous 6 furlong works are good but I would have rather seen 3 S-L-O-W workouts of 1 1/4 in 2:15 with the emphasis of last 3/8 in around 35 to 36 second. another 1 1/8 in about 2:05 again with emphasis on last 3/8 and then a 1 mile work in 1:45 same 3/8 emphasis all spaced out 10 days apart, with a blowout of 3 furlongs of 35 to 36 sec the Wednesday before the SA Derby. I definitely know he is ready to run a 6 furlong race but is ready to run a 1 1/8 ??? Yes , if M Garcia can control the pace but if he can’t ?????? I think some of his workout techniques have made head cases out of Gaming , Rodriguez and possibly now Barnes. But I will say this last workout he gave Barnes was a good one. I liked that he had him running at another horse and then let him blow by that horse in the stretch to complete his workout. I hope this is a sign of things to come !!!
His entering and running Cornucopian in a 1 1/8 race after a just a 6 fur maiden win was a sign of desperation. (JMO). Earlier in the year when he had a chance to send his horses out of town for a race he decide to run against his own horses instead. Why was he so reluctant to send his horses out of California? He could have sent Rodriguez to the Gotham and then send him back for the Wood ( I don’t give him much of chance in the Wood unless the track comes up “sloppy” and he is a mud loving fool.) I just hope in the future he will go back to some of his old ways but if he doesn’t he maybe in for a lot more disappointment.
INTO MISCHIEF sired horses
Colts sired by Into Mischief seem to be born with an inherit amount of speed. He is so popular for that I just read somewhere a headline that quarter horse breeders are interested in him. But one problem I see is that early speed does not translate to staying power unless the front runner can control the pace … Case in point Citizen Bull who has had his way in most of his race. Case in point Barnes who at the top of stretch looked like a sure winner only to get passed in the stretch after fast early fractions. What I do see from Into Mischief colts for a distance is great mid pack to closers ala … Tappan Street and Sovereignty. (Excuse me but something has come up here at home and I must leave this post for now) to be cont’d >>>>
Downthestretch, I really enjoyed reading part 1. and am engrossed to read part 2. I agree with most if not all you have stated thus far. This year’s Bob Baffert has confused me with some of his decisions but this is your work, Downthestretch. Please continue.
Agree; BB seemed to have put his horses in a box, and a couple had later starts to their career which might have been due to health reasons?
Doenthestretch, thank you for this post.
You have said “outloud” what I have been thinking.
All good points. Those slow 1 1/4 mile works died with the great trainers who used them .Baffert has paved an unusual path to the Derby for him. We’ll just have to see if it leads him to the winner’s circle.
GOOD analysis!
Hope everything is OK there.
I have been wondering where ALL these Into Mischief sons can legitimately land at stud. The QH breeders might be part of that answer.
Downthestretch, hope all is OK.
Downthestretch, Quarter Horse Racing will allow Appendix Quarter Horses to race.
Not sure if the inspection rules still apply.
They cannot however be used for breeding.
Appendix QH are usually trained for reining, team penning, endurance etc.
My husband’s cousin had good success with a few of the Appendix QHs he bred in reining
The current Derby standing shows only three frontrunners with enough points: Owen Almighty , Citizen Bull, and American Promise. If this holds the deep closers won’t have the ideal setting favoring their final kicks in the Derby.
I am assuming that Madaket Road, Getaway Car (46 points each) and Neoquos (40) will (Should) not be in the Derby … so their slots (15, 16 and 18) will be available
Frontrunners that have the last chance to qualify this weekend are: River Thames (25), Sand Devil (25), Rodriguez (21.25), Barnes (18.75), and East Avenue (10).
River Thames and East Avenue have to contend with Owen Almighty … so they will have to fight hard for the 2nd and 3rd places using their usual frontrunning styles…
Similarly Sand Devil and Rodriguez could be canceling each other in an unrelentless speed duel in the Wood Memorial.
And Barnes will have to run the race of his life to try defeating Citizen Bull and the comanding Journalism…
As the Japanese/UAE hopefuls are midpack runners or closers the Derby could very well end with only three natural pacesetters … If so, it won’t be any Rich Strike this time…
No sure if Flood Zone will be able to get the points in the UAE Derby and then withstand the trek back within only four weeks … if he overcomes that he will likely be part of the Derby pace… we shall see…
Nelson, are you still high on Heart of Honor?
I’m disappointed that he’s being ridden by Saffie again. Jamie specifically messaged me to essentially blame the horse for not running up to par, not her. I don’t blame her for her last, per se, because HoH is a deep closer, but I really don’t understand why they removed his previous jock
I guess we’ll see if blinkers help
Yes Betsy… I trust his trainer has done a good job for his main goal … I am with you about Saffie…I did not like how Heart ran last time …stronger Jockey would be great…
As I wrote before the real challenge would come from the Japanese and now Flood Zone… but Heart”s powerful late rally is always dangerous for the competition…
Was it different than his other races, Nelson? In the 2000 Guineas, he was also well back…I don’t think DeVries did anything to lose the mount. Funny thing is that he worked Heart from the gate in blinkers
I really loved his 2nd start, because he was forwardly placed – I guess he’s regressed a bit since then. I agree that he’ll always out forth a good rally – he’s an honest colt
Hopefully blinkers will help him be more aggressive
Thank you Steve for these rankings on the Derby. I’ve been totally confused because there are so many good horses. The only thing I’m definite about is Sandman to win. I have a soft spot for the greys who all have been exceptional are Seize the Grey & White Abarrio. This is due to my own horse being a grey who has turned white as he has aged to a 23 YO Arabian gelding. Sandman followed by Citizen Bill & Coal Battle. Anyway I’ll be checking your updates! 🏇
Hi Steve,
Once again Thank You for the great insight. This weekend should help to clear things up a little better for the first Saturday in May. I will also be watching American Promise in Lexington to see he can possibly follow the footsteps of the great Charismatic. Looking forward to future and final rankings and analyses.
Best,
Hammer
Looks like two sloppy tracks to unclear everything. I’m afraid we won’t learn .much. good move going to Lexington
It’s amusing how much stock people put into Beyer speed figures. His so called “proprietary” formula is strictly based on speed and distance. Many other variables are not taken into consideration.
With this “proprietary” formula, Andy has picked 3 KD winners from the past 20 editions. That’s a whopping 15% hit rate.
The majority of speed figures are subjective. Any race result is the product of circumstances achieved at that particular time and place.
Example, take the top 10 listed horses and race them every 5-6 weeks. The results from each race will never be duplicated again. Last week’s 98 Beyer could be 88 next time from the same horse. I will stick to the eye test and draw from experience to make an educated assumption for a winner.
I’m giving Sand Devil a real hard look in the Wood Memorial. He finished 2nd to the highly regarded Flood Zone in the Gotham. He has three wins in four career starts, all at Aqueduct. He’s listed at 8-1 on the morning line, and 80-1 in Derby Futures Pool 6.
His pedigree reflects an impressive mix of speed, class and stamina. In addition, he’s a Chester Broman homebred colt, which is a plus, IMO.
I ve been Playing him up all year. Key is if he rates and is able to sit off Rodriguez. He’s a very good horse.
Thanks for the reply, Steve
Sounds encouraging, two thumbs up.
Will refrain from listing my top 5 to win which9 will include a longshot, sentimental, most likely, my number one pick and one other until after the races this weekend including the UAE Derby.
Wood Memorial – my thought is that race will be between Rodriguez and Captain Crook. Interesting entry is Virginia bred Omaha Omaha who placed 3rd in Virginia Derby.
Santa Anita Derby – my thought is a show down between Citizen Bull and Journalism for 1,2 and Barnes getting up for 3rd. $500,000 purse possibly part of reason for only 5 entries.
Bluegrass – no comment yet. Weather very iffy Thursday, Friday, Saturday. 70 to 90% chance of heavy rain and thunderstorms day and night.
Dubai Derby – Flood Zone, Shin Forever (2nd in Saudi Derby) or Heart of Honor most likely winner.
Would not rule out Dragon -Mind Your Biscuits X Noble Coronet (Deep Impact). MYB also sire of Derma Sotogake.
Deal announced yesterday to for Journalism to stand at Ashford (Coolmore) when retired. Coolmore also has racing rights under the contract.
Thank you so much for all the hard work, attention to detail and the Derby rankings each week.
RE: Kentucky Derby Futures Pool #6
The opening odds have been posted, with a few enticing longshots.
American Promise, winner of the Virginia Derby, 30-1
Final Gambit, winner of the Jeff Ruby Steaks, 40-1
Grande, AOC winner, last out, 60-1 (entered in the Wood)
Owen Almighty, winner of the Tampa Bay Derby, 30-1 (entered in the Blue Grass)
River Thames, 2nd in the FOY, 40-1 (entered in the Blue Grass)
Statesman, AOC winner, last out, 80-1 (entered in the Wood)
Chunk of Gold, 2nd in the Louisiana Derby, 30-1
Admiral Dennis, 80-1, (entered in the Blue Grass)
Obviously, the odds on the horses entered in the Wood and/or Blue Grass are subject to change, pending the outcome of those two Derby prep races.
The pool will close before those races are run. That’s the quirk of final pool hoping you capped the final big preps correctly if you’re using those horses. If someone thinks, say, Captain Cook is going to spank the Wood, then that person will get massive value in the pool relative to Derby day odds. Of course, if he tanks, that person threw away some money.
Pools 1,2,3,4,5 all opened on a Friday, and closed on Sunday. I didn’t bother to look at the opening and closing dates, which I thought would be the same.
Bottom line, you’re absolutely right, Pool 6 opens on Thursday and closes on Saturday, before the Wood and Blue Grass post times. My bad.
Please excuse.
These Futures are designed to do one thing and that’s to suck all the money they can out of bettors. Puzzling why Caldera is listed as an individual choice when he isn’t even entered in a race this weekend. Even if he runs and wins the Lexington, he will likely fall way short on points. I wonder how much will be bet on him with zero chance of cashing. Alot of sucker bets are made here. I shake my head at 15/1 on a 6f Maiden winner only in pool 5. Who in their right mind would bet a horse like that?
biglemmer
Is it your place to dictate betting strategies? I don’t think so.
If a person wants to place a wager in a Futures Pool, it’s their business, and their money, not yours.
Bill,
That was just my opinion which I am entitled to and in no way was intended to attempt to dictate how people bet. I’m sure I don’t have to power to influence or dictate anyway, how you figured my words are so powerful baffles me.
Ever since CD refused to refund any Futures Bets made before they postponed the KY Derby until September 2021, I have chosen to eschew betting the Futures. I had lengthy conversations with CD Officials about the language in their Kentucky Derby Futures Rules that stated the winner of each pool being determined by official results of the race being run on May,1 2021, no exceptions mentioned.
First they stated they had heard from many who had bet Authentic in pool 1 at 50/1 that didn’t want refunds. When I told them I had also bet Authentic in pool 1 but was still in favor or refunding all wagers they came up with another excuse. They claimed additional language in the rules stated no refunds would be offered. When I enlightened them that in contract language this would not apply because they ceded that clause by appointing a defined date of the race they had no response at that time. Further conversations didn’t change anything. Since then, they have introduced new language in their “Official Rules” that if the race is not run on its original date or (added wording) “rescheduled date” refunds would be issued. They clearly recognized I was right and changed the legal language to comply with their previous actions in the future. I have no respect to the way they have managed things in the past to line their pockets. That being said to each their own, if you want to play the futures by all means do so, I just don’t respect anybody who will change the rules mid-stream to benefit themselves and will be no part of it.
Then ignore them. I get a lot of enjoyment playing the KDFW. So do many others.
0Burnham Square, 40-1, Winner of the Holy Bull, (entered in the Blue Grass)
The weather forecast this week for Kentucky is quite ominous. Hopefully they don’t have to postpone. Per the NWS: “Rainfall and potential flooding of historic proportions”. I won’t bother capping the entire card until scratches are in. I’ll plan on off-turf slop. Relatively short but competitive field for the Blue Grass and I don’t think any of them have run on an off track. I might take a stab at the bomber Admiral Dennis who has improving figures, has Buckpasser in tail, and gets Saez. Certainly room for a big jump. Maybe Cox can pull off another upset like in the Ruby.
The tail of Admiral Dennis’ pedigree is replete with stamina; he has an amazing pedigree. Of course, I am a huge Union Rags fan, so the fact that he is Admiral Dennis’ broodmare sire is an added plus, along with the great Buckpasser’s dominance in the tail of his pedigree. I will definitely put a little money on him.
That makes three of us hoping for an Admiral Dennis ‘reversal of fortune’.
He was one of my 5 under the radar Derby sleepers back in November column Would love to see him bounce back
Same with me, Steve. I’ve been lucky this year with Sandman and Tiztastic getting in I would love to see Admiral Dennis and Statesmen get in as well. Flood Zone as well but a trip back to Churchill Downs seems foolhardy to say the least.
I am glad I am not alone . I see much in this horse’s pedigree to think he can win and do well in the derby.
Well, here’s my updated half dozen…
1) Citizen Bull-still the champ and has been getting in good works. Baffert has had this Saturday circled for a long, long time now. Showtime.
2) Journalism-has done everything right since November. Showtime.
3) Barnes (soft)-on paper this horse is a strong #3 and as Steve mentioned earlier…”don’t get caught up with the wins and losses (in these preps)”. Baffert seemed satisfied with his work with blinkers on yesterday.
4) Sandman-a very smart victory Saturday (99 Beyer)
5) Tappan Street-a win with a 95 Beyer
6) Sovereignty-from a 95 Beyer in the FOY to a 91 in the Derby which could indicate a regression. I also noticed that the NTRA lowered S from #3 to #5 in their standings.
I also noticed that the last two Florida preps went from 95 in FOY to 94 in Florida Derby. Could it be that horses, using the Florida route this year, have already plateaued?
Regarding the California route, it is shaping up at the ‘battle royale as the baseline of the San Gabriel Mountains’. I wouldn’t be surprised if three horses exit this race with triple Beyers.
I think you’ll get one at best from the Santa Anita Derby, finishing in the top five in the Kentucky Derby. Bob B’s seem like milers, but I think Barnes can win it on Saturday. In the end, the Florida Derby pair and a few from the Arkansas Derby will be very competitive in the Kentucky Derby. Journalism and Tappan Street look like the spitting image of each other, even though coming from different sirelines!
Steve, incredible read-Thanks!
Love the line that Baffert sent his scouts out in advancement to the east coast.
What do you think he has learned?
in my opinion MD was a 4th or 5th string horse, and Corn is a streaking star but didnt have the foundation, and only lost to the Coal by a length after a horrendeous ride by JV.
Just 7 for the BlueGrass. Another short field in a Derby points race.
All seven are good horses…..I’m leaning toward Chancer…has two solid works….
Matthew, have you ever looked back at who actually ran in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity, Grade 1 Champagne Stakes, Grade 1 Hopeful Stakes last year and what they have achieved since.
My goodness they were terrible races with such ordinary fields, the winner of the Breeders’ Futurity went on to run 9th in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and 10th in the Risen Star Stakes. The rest of the field have done about the same since.
The winner of the Hopeful and Champagne Stakes managed to come 6th in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and a distanced 2nd in the Tampa Bay Derby. The rest of the fields of both the Hopeful and Champagne are a who’s who of no achievers. Not one winner out of any of them since. Shockers.
It was just a lighter year for New York, that’s all. It’s an expensive place with cold weather. Yet they have the biggest field this weekend.
I was truly surprised going over the results and what the runners have achieved since, usually those races are star studded with future champions abound.
It varies a lot. Chancer McPatrick will likely be in the Derby. Didn’t Fierceness run in the ’23 Champagne? If you get one good one out of a race, that’s pretty good. The Champagne still provides 10 points on the Kentucky Derby trail. I think you could find many years in past decades, whether in the 80’s, before or after, that the fields were often unspectacular, but they yielded a few good ones.
It’s a bit like that but the Champagne usually coughs up a couple of good sprinters as well as a two turn horse or two. Last year was pretty barren.
I hit big on Sea Hero because I never forgot his Champagne….but yes, Davids—they do not assign points for these races–‘all the points are for races in March and April now—so you probably aren’t going to see the better ones in those two year old races—not like in the past….but you will still see them in the Saratoga and Del Mar maiden races—
But it’s the deepest field with regard to runners with proven stakes experience.
I was on Secretariat at age 13…from November on…same with Journalism….I always kept Sea Heroes Champagne in back of my mind, and was swayed by the 3q-1 odds he got in the Oregon pool…..I saw I’ll Have Another work, in Feb and was convinced he was for real–I watched his EARS, and rider’s HANDS—-Mage was a last minute play—I saw Mystik Dan come up the rail in the Southwest and within 3-draw I went with a hunch and got lucky—had Sierra Leone kept straight I finish 3rd….my brother talked me into putting Sunday Silence on yop…I turned $153 into $5100 that day—all in all I’ve bet around $7k on the Derby and cashed around $21k—Churchill being one of three tracks I profited ob…the others being the old Pomona Fair half mile no banked turns. …and eversince they made Los Al one mile—I’ve done well with that long stretch—all other tracks I’m on the red. All told—I’ve shown a profit three…maybe four years, it’s a tough game—but I have enjoyed Derby success…
(Sea Jero was 31-1 on Oregon…
Exacta in Kentucky paid $170…..in Oregon paid $$1034…..
Third straight west coast prep where Bobconteols the pace….I’m just looking for Journalism to finish—I think Rodriguez has a better chance at victory, but think J is the Derby winner….
Matthew I hope you’re correct on both counts!!
They got 5 for the Santa Anita Derby from only 3 different trainers. Two from the BB barn, two for John Shirreffs, and Journalism for Mike McCarthy. McCarthy may only need one.
But where are horses from Richard Mandella, Doug O’Neill, and Simon Callahan? Don’t those trainers have any quality 3-year-olds? If no, why not?
Owners ate becoming scarce in the west….
Don’t know about the other two but I’m assuming Doug O’Neill is in the middle east. He’s got a couple of horses entered for the Dubai World Cup, as well as Raging Torrent in the Godolphin Mile.
If Santa Anita had a forecast like Keeneland has for Saturday, they would have already cancelled the races on Saturday and rescheduled them for the following weekend. The controversy being to run the races as drawn or to redraw the races next week.
No offense to my former neighbors in the Golden State.
We’ll see if Keeneland takes any action.
One forecast I saw looked like a possible break on Saturday.
The forecast for Aqueduct looks slightly better. A 50/50 shot at rain.
SA couldn’t schedule the SA Derby 7 days late—no rain coming …but had they cancellwd they would have run it asap….
Steve thanks for another great year of insight. As we get this weekend behind us we will be closer to knowing the field for this years Ky Derby for sure. I still believe in Dosage Index & my Future Wagers in Vegas & Twin Spires Pools all use the equation. I was ready to throw in the towel on East Avenue after his last race came up empty after training so well up to that race & was a no show. But something tells me to throw that comeback race out because Brendan Walsh & even more Godolphin always do well by their horses they unlike other barns would ever enter him if didn’t think he was capable of winning this is the best owner stable worldwide for years they know they have a good one in Sovereignty already in the field so why chase if you weren’t thinking winning The Bluegrass ? If he comes back to form & returns to even this late in the game LOOKOUT this is not the connections that chase just to say we were there.
Additionally Baffert sending stock all over East coast looking for points & recently little even used on his mounts Mike Smith is suddenly his Uber rider. I don’t like Barnes, Rodrigez may win The Wood but don’t trust him either that leaves him with only Citizen Bull left so other than the Breeders Cup Juvenile he has only beaten up on Bafferts other runners to date with everything his own way & short fields. Baffert was loaded in everyone’s opinion 3 months ago he doesn’t have the bullets to go to this fight this year IMO. Journalism may be a Beast & will give him the excuses to throw in the towel come Saturday….
Steve,
Contrary to popular belief am not a disagreeable individual. As I have stated on several occasions, I am a 1+1=2 individual. Decisions that do not compute for me are difficult to understand.
I didn’t ignore your grossly favorable comments regarding Final Gambit. I just cannot understand the colt not being assigned a ranking. if you are so impressed with the colt. Why did 6 last out losers assigned rankings, and the impassive Jeff Ruby winner got only accolades that were superseded by your reservations and/or apprehension regarding his prospect of replicating his Ruby performance on dirt.
Thus, I stated you could have rolled the dice despite your doubts. You have done it in the past.
The colt doesn’t have to be 100% proficient on dirt. If runs to either 70% or 80% of his Ruby performance on dirt, he wins the KD given the pertinent details of his performance you provided.
impressive Jeff Ruby winner
I thought it looked good and the Brisnet 101 would concur, yet Equibase gave the performance one its lowest figures for the prep in history (96) and Beyer was a ho-hum 90. Two of us are wrong. At least Two Phil’s last year had some decent prior dirt form to work with. This one is a shot in the dark but you would get paid well for the uncertainty.
Don’t get so caught up in wins and losses. The only time a win means anything is on the first Saturday in May.. they are not called preps for nothing. You obviously didn’t bet the last 5 Derby winners. If Final Gambit is not ranked in a few weeks and not among my Derby bets see me then. This is a time for watching and learning.
ill will
I can never understand Counter Points ill will towards most everyone on here, including Steve.
I don’t feel any ill will from anybody on here…not sure why he’s viewed that way…he has his opinion like every single one of us on here…either like it or not….seems he’s not a big fan of bb…neither am I…its our opinion…he does furnish some great research like several others including Steve himself!
…those that read his posts have to decide if the info is valid, pertinent etc just like every other comment on here…
Once again, Steve Haskin turns Monday from blah to boo-yah. I went over this edition late last night and lost an hour of sleep. Next, I’ll be checking video and PPs while mining the Rankings for gold.
What’s with California racing. Another five-horse field! You would think that the only significant racing state west of the Mississippi could do better than that. Journalism, who I love, will have faced four horses in four of his five races. Is that a suitable preparation to the 20-horse brawl on the first Saturday in May?
This has been a problem for quite a while, Tony. Cali short field syndrome is the reason that I don’t waste my wagering dollars on California racing. They really need to get their act together.
Dewey, I don’t follow Cal racing closely, but I know it’s had a problem with short fields in general for many years. But this year’s total number of runners in the San Felipe and Santa Anita Derby is easily the lowest since 2000. I didn’t look further.
I hear ya, Tony! I’ll watch big races like this, but, I won’t bet them.
Tony, the San Vicent, Robert B Lewis, San Felipe and Santa Anita Derby will have had 5 in each, this year. Throw in the Los Al Futurity with 5. Who is The Great Race Place again?
Saratoga
Well yeah….the Del Mar Futurity and Anerican Pharoah Stakes had small fields too……Breeders Cup ran one/two/four—-horses from those races….
Good point, speaking of CA racing… the more I see of horses not named Journalism, the more I wonder about him.
Sad what its come to in CA!
Other than the competition, or lack of it, I can’t find a flaw with Journalism. But he needs to be forwardly placed in the KD.
Journalism may not be flawed but we have very little to compare him to. Even after the SA Derby we don’t have much of a reference point…I’m skeptical!
We have heard that Journalism has a great mind. If he stays healthy and makes his start in the Derby (which I hope he does), he is going to need it. The cavalry charge could be very unnerving for him, after the small fields.
Some of my favorite horses have come out of the Santa Anita Derby, and they sometimes even made me look smart in May. Winning Colors and Sunday Silence back-to-back when I had just been bitten by the bug as a kid. I’ll Have Another and California Chrome were another two I had supreme confidence in “the teens.”
California racing as it is now makes me feel like I could cry.
Yes Katy, couldn’t agree more about California racing the Hollywood Futurity used to be my ‘go to’ race for a Derby horse.
Sovereignty comes from the female family of the ultra brilliant Californian runner, Lakeway. Until injury she displayed dazzling performance after dazzling performance. What memories she brings.
Sad situation for sure. I remember the SA Derby wjen it was a big deal. Now they got 5 horses…SAD
If the field was comprised on 1 0 entrants who are based in CA. The top 4 would have been the top in the 5-entrant field. The winner would likely emerge from said top 4.
The remaining 6 could be considered fillers.
Tony D – valid points. I agree. To sum it up with how I see it in Ca. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger granted “Exclusive” rights to slot machine operations for Indian Casinos and their properties only. If you compare the purse structure generated with racinos across the US then reference it to the purse structure in Ca. one can decipher why thoroughbred owners of Ca. want to race where the real money exists.
Thanks, Robert. In 2003, Cal produced 10.4% of the North American foal crop. It dropped to 6.4% in 2023.
Thank you very much Tony. Sorry I kept you up but sleep is overrated anyway. Owners don’t want send their 3yos to California to get ganged up on by .million dollar Baffert horses who all work bullets.
Sleep is overrated , you will get plenty when you’re dead !
I never thought about how much writers are like fishermen.
Well done, Steve. You hit the bullseye with week 10. I especially enjoyed reading about Winstar and it’s takeover of the Prestonwood Farm which included Distorted Humor. It brought back memories of one of my favorite Derby winners, Funny Cide. I’ve always loved DH partly because we have the same initials, ha, ha!
I also had win and exacta tickets on Tappan Street. I am impressed with the job that Brad Cox has done with him. He’s bringing TS along in good order to be at his best for the Derby.
Am so looking forward to this weekend, especially the Blue Grass Stakes which will be drawn this morning. I’m a big fan of Burnham Square. It looks like there will be a change in rider as Edgard Zayas has been named to ride most of the races at Gulfstream on Saturday. Curious to see who will replace him? Also am a follower of Admiral Dennis. His works say that he is primed for a big effort in the Blue Grass. With East Avenue expected to bounce back to his old form, it should be a very interesting race.
Thank you, Steve, for all the juicy tidbits that you dig up for us every week. I look forward to your column every week. You keep it fresh with new ideas and facts. Great stuff!
Thanks ao much Dewey. I never know if people enjoy the history so happy to year you did. Looks like we’ll have two sloppy tracks. Saturday.
The local forecaster here in Lexington expects 5-8″ of rain from Thursday through Sunday. Love to handicap dem mudders.
Dewey, wouldn’t it be fun if Admiral Dennis were to finally show all that early promise in the Blue Grass Stakes for a major upset?
Admiral Dennis is a beautifully bred horse. The tail of his pedigree is replete with stamina. I will definitely put a wager on him.
Fingers crossed, Mary. Good luck.
It sure would, Davids. Glad that Luis is back to ride him. The Blue Grass looks like it could be one of the better preps. Good field.
Must use The Admiral and Omaha Omaha in their respective races. I think both of these horses have a square chance of making the derby and running well. Hoping they fly under the radar on the first Saturday in May .
I have a few more possible longshots I will play along with these 2 . It’s all about the breeding for the derby .
These races are preps and always hoping my picks make points and stay healthy .
Dewey, even better on Tuesday.
Thank you Steve. Your writing has enhanced the derby trail and your knowledge and insights make it a must read for me every Tuesday morning. Hard to believe that we are at week ten.
Thank you very much Kenny. I agree, it’s flown by.
I’m not a disciple of Beyer Speed Figures but if Sandman gets a 99, Tappan Street gets 94 and Sovereignty gets 92 doesn’t that mean Sandman actually ran better in the Arkansas Derby? 🤣
I believe Beyer assigns a premium to when they run fast at the beginning as opposed to a modest pace.
I’m pretty sure that’s not accurate.
Another ‘doubting Thomas or Tony’ in the group. The more the merrier.
Huh?
It is accurate and I’m pretty sure you don’t know.
Thanks, Discopartner. Beyer Speed Figures don’t convince me a great deal, Thoro-Graph measures are more complete but the old fashioned ‘eye-test’ suits me best. Rather be wrong yourself than let others take you down the wrong path.
I thoroughly enjoy reading Steve Haskin’s opinion because he’s like your best pal at the races with you – you can agree or disagree on a horse but the main point is to enjoy the afternoon together.
Davids, you expressed how I feel about sharing opinions with Steve. I enjoy being in his company and would love to spend a day or two with him at the races. Same goes for you and Nelson.
Thanks Dewey, it would be fun ‘a day at the races’ together. Steve and Nelson, are great to banter with and you respect their opinions as I do yours.
I’ve been lucky here where I live my local baker is a racing fan and her kids work at Flemington so l’m getting a lot of the hot gossip straight from the horse’s mouth. Ha ha
Good luck on Saturday and Tuesday.
Davids, you bring to mind the time I went to my favorite bakery to pick up donuts and the owner noticed that I was wearing a Kentucky Derby hat and asked me who I liked for the win. I replied “I’ll Have Another”. He then said “another what?” I told him that was the name of the horse I liked and we both broke out laughing. Every year since, when the Derby approaches, he always mentions “I’ll Have Another”. I was so bummed out when IHA was scratched the morning before the race. I thought he had a real good chance to win the Triple Crown. C’est la vie!
Edit: scratched the morning before the Belmont.
Dewey, I think you would truly enjoy living in Melbourne. The people are friendly and community oriented especially where I live in Nth Fitzroy.
Anyway, they love their football, Aussie Rules, and racing especially around the Melbourne Cup. When I was a very young chappy in 1970, when we first lived in Melbourne, I had to pick a football team to support, Essendon for me, and who I thought was going to win the Melbourne Cup.
Your “I’ll Have Another” story made me chuckle. I’m always promoting racing whenever possible because it’s a great sport to follow and most people are totally down to earth and just want to chat about the horses. A universal language around the world.
I cannot complain Davids… they have Journalism at the top with 108 … being at least five lengths better than all the other hopefuls is what I need to boost my confidence in the son of Curlin going forward… go figure!
Good luck, Nelson. Journalism looks the horse to beat but there is a nagging little devil that keeps promoting: only won in California, only won in California, only won in California and…the Californian colts have lost outside California, the Californian colts have lost outside California.
I’m a shocking ‘doubting Thomas’ and until they start winning outside the Golden State my conviction is not fully satisfied.
Meanwhile, my Derby Trail has taken an upward swing of late both Tiztastic and Sandman have won major preps so I’m sweet. If only I could get over this flu completely.
Davids….it’s Horse Racing—where everybody has an opinion, or twenty…..you think Sandman ran best—I’m fine with that…..I think Tappan Street and Sove5ran best—Beyer agrees with you—I do not….I like Sandman, though….I net on him Sat—for the first time—and ex boxed with Publisher….I actually thought there might be an up front duel….Derby also usually has pace—I think there are better late finishers than Sandman, is all …
Matthew, everyone has an opinion but being in agreement with Andy Beyer isn’t a positive. Ha ha With Sandman it’s the future that looks rosy to me.
Just in passing, I was watching the Florida Derby from their website and two of the commentators expressed an opinion that the the track was very favorable to closers that day. Hence why Beyer didn’t give Tappan Street a higher number.
I know Gulfstream often makes an ordinary runner appear to be the latest Seattle Slew.
Beyers are usually pretty trustworthy on dirt and at the bigger tracks….Sandman 99 to Sovereignty 92—works for me! Sovereignty hasn’t nibbled at triple digits, works for me! I’d love a head to head wager, Sandman to Sovereignty or Tappan Street—I just hope the odds reflect that Beyer discrepancy—Tappan Street really burst past Madaket Road—who had something left—Sandman ran past horses who were gassed—I liken him to Tapit Trice—a big grey closer by Tapit —who ran some good races—but was well beaten in The Derby and The Classic—I like Sandman and will use him in my trifecta—buy if he wins I will be surprised—-when they went :45 1/5—SOMEBODY had to win The Arkansas Derby—had they gone :47 1/5 I don’t think he would’ve won..
Sandman has more agility, has more speed, will to win than Tapit Trice but less physical maturity than Tapit Trice at the same period of time.
I’m hoping Sandman really starts blossoming over the next 4 weeks or so.
Well Steve, your intro suggest ‘tread down some untraveled highways to make time fly. I did that with some “slapstick comedy” and got a TOSSED SALAD out the deal! ..many avenues available. Anyway gotta get back to my episode of 1 of my favorites ..’Quick Draw McDraw and his side kick Baba Looey’. This time I have a juicer available to make a V-8!
LOL
I loved this read. The dozen and dilemma profiles read so quickly, with a sense of urgency. Then, your pace slowed for knocking on the door, allowing us to fully appreciate Distorted Humor. Thank you for giving that grand old man such a wonderful mention.
So glad you liked it Katy. Thank you.
Steve
Thanks again for another amazing read . For not much to write about you certainly made this a very enjoyable read.
Thanks
Thanks very much Chris.
Journalism drew the rail in the Santa Anita Derby. Which should be no problem in just a 5-horse field.
The Santa Anita Oaks drew just six and I expect that Tenma will be a very heavy favorite.
Steve Haskin has left no stone unturned in this week’s rankings. He answered all my questions anyway. Including about Flood Zone.
I think I saw somewhere that they are drawing the BlueGrass field tomorrow.
Lexington is now 3 Weeks prior to KY Derby not 2 Weeks Prior. Luan Machado rode Final Gambit in Ruby. Reylu Gutierrez did not ride him.
Wonderful column, Steve, especially your insights on Sovereignty, Tappan Street, Burnham Square and River Thames. You seem to have an instinctive understanding about where these elite horses sit in time and place, and their potential to run well in the Derby in less than five weeks’ time. And you and I have the same top Four! Maybe it’s because I’ve been reading your columns for so many years, but I’m really starting to understand how you think, and as we all know, you’ve seen just about everything happen in the Derby and have years of knowledge and perspective to draw on. I feel honored that you share so much with us. On top of that, your writing is fresh and thought provoking!
At this point, I have no idea who will win the Derby or which horse I will support. You’ve made such a great case for all of the horses in your top 12, and I can envision almost any of them winning. Well, maybe not Chunk of Gold, but that’s because of his name — makes me think of that ’60s commercial, “open wide for Chunkie!”
That’s very kind of you, Ms B , thank you.. But if youre understanding how I think that could be dangerous.. I dont even understand it.
I am glad to see Tappan Street taking the 4th spot displacing Barnes who is facing an uphill task in the Santa Anita Derby.
The son of Into Mischief looked more professional in the Florida Derby…he has certainly developed into a very strong and athletic horse now.
Also, nice to see Captain Cook one-upping other good prospects for 5th …
I have this nagging feeling that Captain Cook could be the Mystik Dan of this year. Perhaps it is because they are sired by two sons of Into Mischief perceived to be milers… albeit another similarity is their stamina ladden female family.
You had Mystik Dan in the rankings for 13 weeks and in 4th place for 8 weeks on the merits of his Southwest romp. It was my regret to brush that win off with the excuse of being on a muddy sealed track; and being a son of a miler did not work in his favor either in my mind.
Similary, I am kind of overlooking Captain Cook’s compelling speed metrics and impressive visuals just because he is taking the assumed fruitless New York path to the Derby.
I wonder if the improvement experienced by Tappan Street with 8 weeks of workouts by design could be replicated by Captain Cook’s 10-week of training. I.e. will the son of Practical Joke be more mature and ready to pair or improve his top Thoro-Graph figure?
Both Tappan Street and Captain Cook had their prior start on February 1st … and both had 6 breezings before their last prep…
Before Davids tells me I am getting ahead of myself I need to say that we (of course) need to see him giving a good account of himself in the Wood Memorial…
But I just wanted to highlight that if you were able to hit the Derby Superfecta (with your top 6) paying $8.2K last year I cannot wait to see what you can foresee with a 20/20 vision this year…!
Nelson, you make a good point about Steve hitting the Derby super with his top 6 last year. At the same time, you’ve paired up an interesting exacta: Tappan Street and Captain Cook. Personally, I’d throw in a third horse as a sweetener. In my case, it should be a last-minute decision (perhaps while the horses are walking to the paddock). That’s usually the only way I stumble on a winner, especially for the Derby.
Thanks Ms Blacktype… the reason I am mentioning Captain Cook is that the last 3 Derby winners belonged to what you can call “second or third tiers” … and Captain Cook fits that category … at least before this Saturday…!
BTW I forgot to mention that your surgeon must be very proud knowing that you could describe the most imperceptible details of River Thames’ ear movements in his last two races… and he still has to work out the other eye … Amazing!
I may only have half the exacta. I have another cataract surgery for the other eye in June.
Per C2 Racing The Queen’s MG had successful surgery today, walked back to her stall and resting comfortably. Great news.
I hope she has a safe and uneventful recovery!
Thanks great news!
Thanks Steve.. I’ve been following Sandman since his allowance win in December. He runs the same race every time but with measured improvement each race. Citizen Bull, Sovereignty, and Journalism are the three that stand above him at this point, but I don’t think all of them will finish in front of Sandman at a mile and a quarter. Casse is doing a masterful job bringing him along by staying out of his way, just keeping him happy. Oh by the way, a natural exacta box for you Journalism, Publisher.
I was going to mention the Journalism – Publisher exacta but you beat me to it
You might want to consider a duel between Sandman and Tiztastic at the end. I am not seeing any wire to wire winners at the moment. The distance and speed is going to do a number on most of the highly rated ones. Maybe it will be a three way race at the end with a speed horse that doesn’t tire out at the final turn. Maybe Santa Anita will give us a clue to that?
I love it! I never even thought of that! All in good pun (eh, sorta kinda) and personalized for our intrepid Derby sherpa.
I really like some of the names for this crop. Some made me wonder “how is this name available after so many stakes races?”
Mike Repole gets my vote for best body of work 2020-2025 in the racehorse names category.
Another week, another great read. Thank you. What makes Tampa quirky? My assumption is the type of surface maybe? Also, Luan Machado rode Final Gambit in Jeff Ruby. The only reason I recall that is because the very next race at TP he rode the winner with an almost identical ride he gave on Gambit.
Yes, I changed that, thanks. TB has a sandy type surface that some horses dont handle. But its a safe surface that builds condition.
Right now, i see Journalism as a standout. I am not sold on Sovereignty. As Steve stated, River Thames was not finishing well in the FOY, flattering Sovereignty. I still like Burnham Square among the Florida horses. Lonnie Briley admitted Coal Battle was a short horse at Oaklawn, so he could rebound. And American Promise could be the developing horse.
Sovereignty is the same distance apart from Neoequos in the Florida Derby as he was in the Fountain of Youth.
RE: Santa Anita Derby
1) Journalism, (110 Equibase Speed figure, last out)
2) Citizen Bull, (107 Equibase Speed figure, last out, worked a bullet 5F 58:40, 1/42)
3) Westwood, (still a maiden, why is he entered in a Grade 1 race?)
4) Barnes, (107 Equibase Speed figure, last out)
5) Baeza, (104 Equibase Speed figure, last out)
I’ll go with Citizen Bull for the win, Journalism 2nd and Barnes 3rd.
Perhaps John Shirreffs is just “contributing” with the cause of having at least 5 horses for the 25% discount … Otherwise …. with four horses the deduction would be 50%… Besides $15,000 or $10,000 for the 5th place is not that bad for an easy canter …
Your points are spot on, Nelson.
Great stuff Steve, thanks. Your comments on WinStar and especially Distorted Humor hit home to me. I won the Roadtotheroses.com handicapping contest sponsored by CD in 2010. The prize was a trip to the 2011 KD, and I recall chatting with you in the Secretariat Room as we awaited the draw for that year’s Derby. Part of that prize package was a VIP tour of WinStar which we did in November of 2011 right after the Breeders Cup. We did see Drosselmeyer in the stables, but the highlight was the Stallion Tour.
Distorted Humor was the ‘boss’ of the group, calm, cool and looked me in the eye. It was an honor to be in his presence. Also saw Tiznow, Speightstown, Bellamy Road and Summer Bird among others. Your comments sparked those memories.
I’ve had my eye on Tappan Street since his maiden win and I sure hope he can carry on Distorted Humor’s legacy. Thanks again Steve, great stuff!
Hi Jack. Thanks for sharing those great memories.
You’re welcome. BTW I also had a nice Win wager on Tappan Street and the exacta with Sovereignty.
Hey Steve – Great synopsis as usual. The final preps are here indeed. Really looking forward to the SA Derby , as I believe that Journalism is special and will shine on SAT on his way to his Goal of winning the KY Derby .
What about Grande, who will be running near the front on Saturday, is undefeated, and has already won at 9 f. In a decent time? Any thoughts on him?
I think with Sandman, the fast pace even got to the closers, they all finished slower than they might have under a less intense pace. He seems to have one of the longest strides. I like Final Gambit though, as a wild long shot from out of the blue, I hope he works out on dirt and is ready for the Derby.
It was sad to read that Coal Battle was headstrong with his jockey on Saturday, after being so tractable in all his races. I noticed he was stressed before the post parade, maybe the crowd bothered him. His trainer said he only had 3 workouts, spaced at 10 days apart, instead of 4 at 7 days. I hope he’s relaxed and ready on Derby day.
It would be hard to imagine Todd Pletcher not in the Derby and depending on a horse with two career starts to get him there.
Is it River Thames or bust for him?
Pletcher has the touted Grande in the Wood, an event he’s won half the renewals since 2010.
After weeks of shuffling and re-shuffling…we are at the cusp of the final weekend of 100 points races which should cement the top 5 or 6.
As you stated last week and in this column, Sovereignty ran a good second and I hope Journalism does not fall into the BB all out speed trap. A good second will be fine. No need to gut it out.
As for “poor” Cornucopian, the horse is not to blame. His trainer knows only one way to train. “balls to the wall” speed regardless if the horses are bred for stamina or not. I am very aware of his winning ways. However, after the Medina Spirit fiasco….he’s much more cautious now.
He admits all his best 3yos are speed horses
Hi Steve, Thanks once again for this well written ranking of our Derby hopefuls!
I’m still hanging onto the slight possibility of Instant Replay maybe slipping into the Lexington and picking up the much needed points he would need to reach the starting gate May 3rd. I’m aware of this being a longshot, but lucky for me, I like long shots.
Would you kindly humor me with his Thoro-graph pattern? Thx. in advance from a big fan.
Thanks John. 15…12 1/4…9,…11 1/2….5 1/4….5. I like that pairing. Good forward move should be coming. Lexington could be a great spot for im.
For someone who had little to say you have nailed it again. Thanks for keeping us updated on all the happenings down the Derby trail. You nailed it!
Lol. Thank you Gary!
Of the 3 KD Preps scheduled for Saturday. The SA Derby will be the one with the most focus.
If East Avenue who is returning to the scene of his most impressive win, can perform to his works. He is likely to be the talk of the town after all three preps are contested.
For horse his size to be breezing 59 and 47 handily. He is likely to emerge an impressive gate to wire winner.
But I agree with the mystery surrounding his flops. I have concluded that his poor performances were surface related. He has no excuses now as he romped at Keeneland.
Brandon Walsh must be wondering what he has done to offend the Thoroughbred Racing Gods. His talented Maxfield was plagued with physical unsoundness. His equivalent to Maxfield seems to be plagues with mental unsoundness.
Animal Kingdom won the KD after an impressive win in the Spiral now the Jeff Ruby.
Went The Day Well won the Spiral and would likely to have been the KD winner if not for traffic problems. His fast-closing 4th bears testament to same.
Rich Strike made 3 starts at Turf way Park without a victory. He finished 3rd in the Jeff Ruby by 5 1/2L. He won the KD.
Two Phil’s was an impassive winner of the Jeff Ruby. He suffered a heartbreaking defeat in the KD. He did everything but win.
Pioneerof The Nile never race of dirt until the 2019 KD. His KD Preps were on AW. He finished 2nd.
Mine That Bird won all his career starts on AW prior to the KD. He won a KD that silenced CD.
Given the above. Why not roll the dice and include Final Gambit in the 12? Certainly, Captain Cook who has been in the rankings forever was not as impressive as Final Gambit.
Be patient. Rather than use up a spot on a guess I would rather wait for him to work on dirt. If he works great he likely will be ranked. And most of the horses you mentioned were already proven on dirt so not a good comparison. His early dirt works were so bad they had to send him to Turfway.
You obviously ignored how much I like this horse and what I said about him. You should look at more than just the Rankings order
Hi Steve
Thank you for providing another insightful analysis on your top Derby prospects.
I was delighted to see River Thames ranked at #10, I had him at #1, a few weeks ago.
In addition, I’ve been very high on Tappan Street from the get-go, and I’m encouraged by the fact that you have him at #4.
Thanks again for all you do, week after week.
Thank you very much Bill. I loved Tappan Street and had nice win and exacta bets on him
You’re welcome, Steve.
Nice hit on Tappan Street.
I have small amount bet in the 3rd and 5th Derby futures betting on Tappan Street @ 64-1 and 71-1. Hoping he has one more race like Saturday.
Nice plays. That’s one horse I don’t have covered yet aside from All Others exacta plays in first two pools but will get some action in the final pool if he’s getting ignored. Obviously won’t get those prices but 12-1 or so seems plausible. I already have Citizen Bull, Journalism, and Sovereignty fairly well covered plus a token $5 win bet on Captain Cook at 51-1 so can goof off a bit and cover a couple I don’t yet have a strong play in the final pool.