2025 Kentucky Derby Rankings – Week 11
UPDATED AFTER THE BLUE GRASS STAKES: I realize it is unorthodox to have co-top ranked horses, but this is not your typical Derby storyline. I have had both horses virtually equal since a November column on my Derby sleepers, and although Journalist is now the clear-cut favorite, and deservedly so, I can’t forget all the reasons I fell in love with Sovereignty while still a maiden, and I feel just as strongly about him despite his defeat. Right now it would feel forced having to separate the two. What is more important to me is promoting an East vs. West showdown between two classic, regally bred horses with a powerful stretch kick who just happened to come off the same farm as babies and broken and trained by the same person. Then, for them to wind up on opposite ends of the country and square off in the Kentucky Derby as the two favorites is right out of old-time Hollywood, beginning with the classic film “Kentucky,” with a talented young horsewoman named Joan Murphy replacing the crotchety Walter Brennan. I have been writing about their days at Bridlewood Farm all year and will continue to add to it, so consider it “Rankings-plus.” I feel that promoting this story and ranking both colts equal, as I did for several weeks, might help spark a deeper interest in the race, which I believe is far more important than joining the crowd and having the big favorite on top. ~ Steve Haskin
Derby Rankings: April 7, 2025 – Week 11
By Steve Haskin
1—Journalism (Mike McCarthy, Curlin – Mopotism, by Uncle Mo)
If McCarthy had any concerns about the potential problems of going from five-horse fields to a 20-horse field, I’m sure they had to be alleviated by the practice run provided by Barnes. Sometimes you can encounter more problems in a bunched up five-horse field than in a larger field and that was the case in the Santa Anita Derby when Barnes, who was throwing his head around early in an attempt to rate him, did his best under Juan Hernandez to keep Journalism pinned in for as long as he could. It would have worked on most horses, but Journalism showed he’s not most horses, as he was able to take several solid bumps from Barnes approaching the far turn that briefly knocked him off stride, then quickly recover and outrun a game and stubborn Baeza to win by three-quarters of a length. By solidifying his role as Derby favorite, Journalism has once again shown us he can be placed anywhere, overcome adversity, and still be able to come home his final eighth in :12 2/5. His form certainly was flattered when Rodriguez, who he beat by over 11 lengths in the San Felipe, came back to easily win the Wood Memorial. The question now is how much he’s saved for the Derby. His main threat looks to be Sovereignty, and although neither has shown that quick turn of foot, both are relentless stretch runners, with Journalism appearing to be more tactical. He has turned in faster speed figures, while Sovereignty has used his preps more methodically. The bottom line is that this Derby needs both colts to show up healthy and sound and on top of their game.
1—Sovereignty (Bill Mott, Into Mischief – Crowned, by Bernardini)
Although he has been at the top of the Rankings at No. 1 or 2 since day one, now that all the major preps are in the books and we have entered crunch time we have to start looking at the top ranked horses with a stronger lens to solidify our assessment of their strengths and weaknesses. In his case you have to ask, are you as confident in him after his defeat by a horse with only two lifetime starts and excellent tactical speed as you were after his victory over a horse with only two lifetime starts and excellent tactical speed? From a visual standpoint, he appeared to run pretty much the same race each time, and from a speed rating standpoint his Thoro-Graph number was a strong “1 ¾” for both races. But the big difference is that in his defeat he was unable to catch the leader in the final furlong, which some felt he should have done as one of the two Derby choices and with a race under him, while others felt he didn’t need to win this, so better to save your best race for the Derby. Pairing up that career top Thoro-Graph number after a four-point jump is just what you want to see and strongly suggests another move forward is expected, and there is no one better at getting a horse to peak in a big race than Bill Mott. So, although to some the Florida Derby took the proverbial bloom off the rose, that is one flower that only needs to bloom on the first Saturday in May.
3—Tappan Street (Brad Cox, Into Mischief – Virginia Key, by Distorted Humor)
The old me would be reluctant to rank a horse with only three lifetime starts this high, but I acknowledge that these are different times and after seeing what Mage did two years ago I have to alter my way of thinking, especially when I really have no idea who else to put here and this doesn’t appear to be a particularly deep group. As I mentioned last week, he has undergone a dramatic change in the past few months, becoming far more professional than the colt we saw in the Holy Bull, and his Thoro-Graph progression from a “7” to a “4 ½” to a “1 ½” suggests he is constantly improving and can compete with anyone. And looking at most of the leading contenders, you have to think his tactical speed puts him in an excellent position to stay close enough to the leader or leaders if he needs to be and get first jump on the closers. And remember, Sovereignty had dead aim on him at the top of the stretch in the Florida Derby, as he did on River Thames in the Fountain of Youth, but was unable to seriously threaten him. Yes, it should be a different story at Churchill Downs with a much longer stretch, and he does have a tough speed horse in Rodriguez to deal with first, but there is no reason to believe he will not keep on improving.
4—Burnham Square (Ian Wilkes, Liam’s Map – Linda, by Scat Daddy)
UPDATED AFTER THE BLUE GRASS STAKES: It was no surprise to see him bounce back with a Holy Bull-like performance in the Blue Grass Stakes, and with a victory over Tappan Street already, you have to consider him just a notch or two below the top 2 and on near equal terms with Tappan Street, who is a different horse now than the one Burnham Square beat in the Holy Bull. Having to quickly analyze this race, you obviously have to look at the very slow final time of 1:51 1/5 and equally slow final fractions. But they seemed to be coming come slow all day, so it’s too soon to make any evaluations or say anything definitive. One of the main reasons you had to give him another shot after his fourth in the Fountain of Youth and why he was still ranked 7th last week is that his Thoro-Graph pattern pointed to a big effort. After a “10” in his career debut, he jumped to a “7.” When he paired up the “7” it pointed to another forward move, which he made with a “4” in the Holy Bull. Then, despite his fourth in the Fountain of Youth, he still paired up that “4,” which again pointed to another jump forward in the Blue Grass. As soon as he got out of Florida, which Wilkes couldn’t wait to do, he worked five furlongs in a swift :59 3/5 at Churchill Downs. So it’s still too early to say how good or bad this race was over a track still drying out after days of torrential rains and flooding.
5—Rodriguez (Bob Baffert, Authentic – Cayala, by Cherokee Run)
Well, we need a speed horse and he’s the only true one until we see what happens in the Blue Grass. And we did think enough of him to rank him in the Top 10 for three straight weeks before Baffert tried to get him to rate off the pace, which he wanted no part of. One of the first things I learned about handicapping back in the ‘60s was speed on the rail at Aqueduct going 1 1/8 miles. And nothing has changed, especially if you add Baffert speed on the rail. Even with the Future Wager betting closing early, just on handicapping the Wood Memorial alone, how did he close at 62-1? It’s really difficult getting a handle on the Wood, which was the perfect spot for this horse, who now looks to be the last weapon left in Baffert’s once strong arsenal, just as his sire was in 2020. The big difference is that Authentic had until September to mature, while this guy is still a mere tot, being a very late May 20 foal. He won’t even turn 3 until after the Preakness. Back in the Week 3 Rankings I led off by saying, “I’m starting to get the feeling he may be Baffert’s secret weapon.” I wasn’t expecting him to be Baffert’s only weapon. And let’s not forget the last time he was allowed to use his speed was when he trounced Baeza by seven lengths. Now we just have to wait to find out how many, if any, pure speed horses will be in the Derby.
6—Grande (Todd Pletcher, Curlin, Journey Home, by War Front)
UPDATED: After running a “5 ½” Thoro-Graph number in his first two starts, a big move forward was expected for the Wood Memorial and it surpassed expectations. To show just how wide a trip Grande had in the race, Rodriguez got a “2 ¼” on Thoro-Graph while Grande got a “1/2,” and that’s getting beat 3 ½ lengths. As much as I hate having to rank horses high with only three lifetime starts going into the Derby, here I am forced to do it twice. But this colt did things in the Wood Memorial a horse with only two starts making his stakes debut is not supposed to do. He broke sharply, but with several horses spread across the track he was forced four-wide into the first turn and then had to veer out even farther, about six-wide, to avoid running up into Sand Devil. He turned into the backstretch still very wide and now back in seventh, some seven lengths off the pace set by Rodriguez. He then made a strong early move down the backstretch to pull to within two lengths of the leader and was still wide going into the far turn, where he now was a clear third behind the two favorites. Turning into the stretch he went way wide again, losing some momentum, but was still strong after he changed leads on cue and kicked for home. Despite losing so much ground and making a long sustained run through quarters in :23 3/5, :23 4/5, and :23 4/5, he kept coming, putting the favorite Captain Cook away. But Rodriguez was already long gone, opening a four-length lead at the eighth pole. Grande, after racing wide the entire race, still was able to close his final eighth in about :12 1/5, beaten 3 ½ lengths by a very fast Baffert colt who had the perfect trip from the perfect post. Yes, he’s had only three lifetime starts, but two have been at 1 1/8 miles and the other at one mile. And this was the second fastest Wood in the past 20 years. We know he has good tactical speed that he wasn’t able to use on Saturday and his pedigree in inundated with stamina top and bottom. I wouldn’t mind holding a Future Wager ticket on this guy at 46-1.
7—Sandman (Mark Casse, Tapit – Distorted Music, by Distorted Humor)
With these Rankings likely to change Tuesday evening after the Blue Grass Stakes, we will acknowledge he is the strongest of the deep closers, at least on dirt, and he is consistent, and he has a lot of miles under him, and most important he is improving. We have always stressed the importance of pairing up career tops on Thoro-Graph, as it proves the initial jump forward was legitimate, and another big move is then expected if we’re dealing with a top-class horse. So after Sandman paired up his “4 1/2” off a previous career high “7,” a significant jump forward was expected in the Arkansas Derby. Yes, there was a huge pace collapse after blazing early fractions that set it up for him, but from a speed ratings standpoint, his “1 ½” put him right up there with the leading contenders. When I heard one of his minority owners, who is new to racing, mention recently that he’s living a dream, I couldn’t help but think of the lyrics of an old song that goes, “Please turn on your magic beam, Mr. Sandman, bring me a dream.” What can I tell you, it’s Week 11 and I’m obviously getting punch drunk trying to sort these horses out. At least he’s made eight starts at five different distances and was able to break his maiden at Saratoga way before Journalism, Tappan Street, Rodriguez, and a number of others even saw a starting gate.
8—East Avenue (Brendan Walsh, Medaglia d’Oro – Dance Music, by Ghostzapper)
UPDATED AFTER THE BLUE GRASS STAKES: Remember when he was ranked No. 1 for the first several weeks? I guess we’ll never know what happened to him at Fair Grounds, but the way he has worked since that debacle, you knew at least he would be sharp and dead-fit and hopefully more focused with the addition of blinkers for his return to Keeneland, where he romped in last year’s Breeder’s Futurity. He is the one horse I am not going to equate with the slow time and closing fractions. After outrunning a speedster in Owen Almighty through testing fractions of :22 4/5 and :46 4/5, which did Owen Almighty in, I thought he was done when they engulfed him at the head of the stretch. But for him to kick in again and open up again and just get nailed on the wire, I thought he ran super on that dead track after having run a total of a half-mile all year. And this track might have been just what he needs to get fit enough to go a mile and a quarter. I’m really not sure where to rank him, but there is still time to make adjustments after all this sinks in. But the bottom line is it’s just great to have him back.
9—Chunk of Gold (Ethan West, Preservationist – Play For Gold, by Cairo Prince)
He’s still at Turfway Park, where he breezed a half in :49 1/5 followed by a :51 breeze. He’s not scheduled to van to Churchill Downs until Friday, April 25. I still believe there is a lot more to his last two races, and only two dirt races, than one might think. He showed me things in both races you won’t see in the past performances or in the speed ratings; things that suggest he is improving quickly and is capable of a breakout performance at any time, especially the farther they go. He shares the same breeder (Airdrie Stud’s Brereton Jones) as Publisher, so this historic farm has bred the runners-up of the Louisiana and Arkansas Derbys. I still love the story of trainer Ethan West and, like Lonnie Briley, his ascent into the Kentucky Derby spotlight. It all started when jockey Victor Lebron, who had been galloping him regularly, surprised West by telling him, “This is the best 2-year-old you’ve got. He moves so much more fluidly on dirt than synthetic.” West said he’s never missed an oat and is always “calm, cool, and collected.” And this is a family affair, with his wife Paige and their three sons all heavily involved. “I can honestly say we’re living on cloud nine,” Paige said. “I know he hasn’t won either of the preps, but it’s truly been amazing watching him gradually progress and meet the task that’s been asked of him each race, and giving us this incredible opportunity to be a starter in the Kentucky Derby. This is what everyone in horse racing dreams of. I said to Ethan, you obviously need to be all business, but try to enjoy this rare air as well.”
10—Final Gambit (Brad Cox, Not This Time – Pachinko, by Tapit)
He had his much anticipated first work on the dirt at Churchill Downs and all signs were positive as he breezed a half by himself in :48 4/5. Cox, who was able to get the work in before rains came, got him in :49, out in 1:01 3/5, and pulling up six furlongs in 1:14 4/5, With so many questions still to be answered and so much guessing still to be done, rather than focus on the horses who looked good, it might be time to focus on a horse who looked outstanding, even if he’s a guess regarding surface. I wrote after the Jeff Ruby how I was blown away by his performance even with the pace collapse. But what was so impressive was that he blew by all the closers as well, and synthetic or not when you come home your final three-eighths in :36 flat I don’t care what you’re running on. So, yes, he could hate the dirt, especially not working well over it as a 2-year-old, but what if he’s a different horse now and takes to it the way Animal Kingdom did in 2011? So, even though going all in on a horse like this can blow up in your face, you don’t want to realize after it’s too late that there was a good-looking, vastly improved, beautifully bred colt with a powerhouse of a closing kick and you ignored him. it’s worth just ranking him in the top 12 and see how he continues to work over the dirt.
11—Tiztastic (Steve Asmussen, Tiz the Law – Keesha, by Tapit)
To be honest, I’m not sure who is more talented, him or his stablemate Publisher, who is a maiden, but no longer regarded as one and could even wind up the wise guy horse on Derby Day. They both likely will be ranked if we add more horses. But until then we have to lean toward the horse who actually has won a 100-point race, or any race for that matter. Because of all the torrential rains and flooding in Kentucky they have not been able to work him, but hope to by the end of the week.
12—Coal Battle (Lonnie Briley, Coal Front – Wolfblade, by Midshipman
UPDATED: He finally was able to work a half in :47 2/5, out five furlongs in 1:02 2/5. Briley said he was too fresh in the Arkansas Derby. He had to saddle him on the walk and he’s never had to do that before. He added that he does have a plan going foward. This is a laid-back colt who is always relaxing in his stall, but as Briley said, “He knows when it’s game time.” Like all the horses stabled in Kentucky, he also has not worked since his last race. I still feel he took the worst of it in the Arkansas Derby of the horses who closed into that suicidal pace. It’s usually the horse who makes the first move that puts himself in the most disadvantageous position, and he just wasn’t able to out-close the deep closers, one of whom, eventual winner Sandman, was all over him as soon as they turned into the stretch. He just doesn’t seem fast enough to beat the more brilliant horses, but you can be sure he will make his presence felt at some point, whether he’s close up or coming from mid-pack.
13—Baeza (John Shirreffs, Mckinzie – Puca, by Big Brown)
UPDATED: We have to make it a baker’s dozen and put him here until we hear for sure that they will wait to see if they get in, which at this point looks as if he will. Once that is confirmed he obviously will move way up near the top. We all could see just watching the race how great he ran in the Santa Anita Derby coming off a maiden race and pushing Journalism, but the Thoro-Graph numbers, which just came in, made that an understatement, as he got a big fat “zero.” But that wasn’t all. Journalism, who had run a “negative-1/2” in the San Felipe, regressed to a “1 ½,” which of course is 1 ½ points slower than Baeza, no doubt because of his rail-skimming trip. I can’t imagine they won’t give Baeza a chance to at least get in the Derby, but all we can do for now is wait.
KNOCKING ON THE DOOR
The latest from John Shirreffs is that BAEZA’S owner wants to wait until after the Blue Grass Stakes to make a decision on whether to see if he can get in the Derby or just point for the Preakess. If they wait he will ranked, and high, and then just hope. So here’s the story in a nutshell. Rodriguez crushes Baeza in a maiden race. Baeza crushes his field in a maiden race, making Rodriguez look even better. Rodriguez gets crushed by Citizen Bull and then gets crushed by Barnes in his second-place finish to Journalism, making Baeza look not quite as good as before. Rodriguez then crushes his field in the Wood Memorial, making Baeza look good again. Baeza then crushes Citizen Bull and Barnes in his second-place finish to Journalism. So Journalism and Rodriguez go to the Kentucky Derby and Baeza gets left out in the cold. I feel he still has a decent shot of getting in, but Shirreffs originally was more inclined to just go for the Preakness rather than wait aound. So we’ll see what they decide. It is hoped that one of the most talented and improving 3-year-olds in the country, who gave Derby favorite Journalism all he could handle coming off a maiden win, will not be deprived of his big chance because his race fell one horse short of maintaining its designated points.
Some may be critical of having one of our best horses kept out by two Japanese runners, but this is the new Derby and you knew this was bound to happen, as freakish as it may be. I will leave you with this little tidbit. Only seven horses before Saturday had run a Brisnet triple-digit late pace figure coming of a middle pace figure in the 90s. Of those seven horses, which include Journalism and Sovereignty, only one has done it with an early pace figure in the 90s as well, and that is Baeza, proving him to be the only horse who has run extremely fast from start to finish and be stronger at the end. Perhaps it is fate that is now putting him on a path to the Preakness to complete the most amazing Triple Crown sweep in history – his dam Puca producing the Kentucky Derby winner, Preakness winner, and Belmont winner in successive years. But if you firmly believe he won’t run in the Derby would you be willing to sell your Future Wager ticket at 53-1? That will be either the hottest ticket or the most upsetting ticket to have.
With the owner of LUXOR CAFÉ reportedly leaning toward running, there are other factors that still need to be taken care of before it becomes official, so we might as well hold off another few days before finding a spot for him in the Rankings. As for ADMIRE DAYTONA, who ran such a gutsy race to win the UAE Derby, it looks as if his owner wants to run, but we’ll see. That race had to take a lot out of him.
AMERICAN PROMISE will now skip the Lexington and go straight to the Derby off a seven-week layoff. I’m still trying to figure him out and how legitimate that Virginia Derby was. And the seven weeks certainly is a concern from a historical standpoint, but not so much fom a logical standpoint.
Obviously, CITIZEN BULL and BARNES both were huge disappointments. Was the champ exposed after finally not having things his own way? Barnes looked to be in trouble going into the first turn fighting his jockey, and then became too preoccupied in keeping Journalism pinned him before calling it a day.
A horse to definitely keep an eye on down the road is PASSION RULES, a fast-closing third in the Wood Memorial. This colt was very green in his early races, making a number of mistakes, but still winning. He was much more professional moving way up in class in the Wood and was closing strongly along the rail.
Racing historian, author, and award-winning retired journalist for the Daily Racing Form and The Blood-Horse, Steve Haskin was inducted into the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame’s Media Roll of Honor in 2016. Known for his racing knowledge and insightful prose, he has been an exclusive contributor to Secretariat.com since 2020.
Zarigana, wins the Prix de la Grotte Group 3 on return at ParisLongchamp the most exciting 3 year old in Europe and the best pedigree- priceless.
Nitoi just misses winning the Prix Niaollis to the more experienced Uther in the final 100 yards, next time. Some may remember Nitoi’s dam Lady Zuzu.
Both Zarigana and Nitoi are sired by the elite sire, Siyouni.
Anyone here have concerns with Sovereignty have 8 1/2 weeks between races?
Um, disregard that comment. I’m living in an alternate universe.
Exciting finish coming up in the Masters. Rose and Mcilroy in playoff.
Joe—you really “went for it”, on Journalism…and Discopartner did, on Grande—both are nice plays!…
Thanks Matthew. Grande is very good and IMO is a contender. I hope Journalism draws well because as you said In a previous post, if he gets a clean trip, there all running for second. Baeza is very good and is IMO a major contender also. I read in DRF that the 3 horses above Baeza are likely to skip the KY Derby. This means Baeza only needs 1 more defection to get in. Seems very possible to me.
With the recent announcement that Irad Ortiz Jr. will ride Publisher in the Derby, I suspect Pletcher will turn to Flavien Prat to ride River Thames. Evidently, Irad thinks more of the maiden, (Publisher) than he does of River Thames, who he rode to a 3rd place finish in the Blue Grass, within a length of the winner. Presumably, Johnny V had his choice to ride either River Thames or Grande. The fact that he chose Grande, speaks volumes.
Hopefully, Prat does in fact pick up the mount aboard River Thames, which certainly would not be considered a step down. Prat is all class, and one of the top riders in the country.
River Thames’ dam line suggest he will be challenged at a distance of 10F.
Agreed Counter. Huge challenge for him mastering 10F.
Surely you jest, CP.
River Thames’ dam side is inundated with stamina and class, with likes of Unbridled, Grindstone, Buckpasser, Damascus, Pleasant Colony, Secretariat, Private Account, Forestry, Touch Gold, Numbered Account and Discreet Cat.
Dismiss River Thames at your own peril.
Just to be clear, I have RT listed at #7 on my most recent top 12 Derby prospects, right behind Grande, at #6. Frankly, I don’t expect RT will win the Derby but consider him a must include in the exotics.
You make a habit of taking issue with the Derby prospects pointed out by other regulars on this site, including mine. Is it fear of ridicule that you fail to post your top 12 Derby prospects? Now that the Derby field has been established, it’s time to step up to the plate and post your top 10 or 12 prospects so the rest of us can scrutinize your selections.
His pedigree might lean to shorter distances, but at this point with all preps done, performance says more than pedigree. RT could go off at anywhere from 25-1 to 45-1. I already have him at 65-1 in the KDFW, so I don’t need to bet him on Derby day. He fits the profile – well, MY profile – of a Derby winner with the exception of not winning a graded stakes or a second in a Grade 1. He did come very close, though, in the FOY and BG.
Jockeys, even the elite ones, often make the “wrong” decision about which horse has the best chance. There are also other factors, such as agreements with, or loyalty to, particular connections, that impact the decision-making process.
Cold facts
Certainly true. But in this case I think Irad would have more loyalty to Todd Pletcher than to Steve Asmussen. So more likely, it was the horse that made the difference. I was pleased when he chose Publisher, who has been my longshot pick for quite a while. Good luck to them.
Publisher is a top contender in my estimation.
Mine, too. I’m thinking he will be my Derby pick, especially if Baeza doesn’t get in. I’m down to those two, which may be the same as being down to one.
Not mine.
Irad on Publisher? That’s a toss from my tix construction. He’s never been ITM in a Kdby race. If that was Jose Ortiz…i’d have Publisher for exotics placing. At least he has a 2nd & 3rd in the derby to his credit.
Johnny V on Grande makes sense if he’s a forwardly placed runner.
He gets the lead he can slow the pace on the front end especially at a 1 1/4 mile event.
If Baffert had Velasquez on Rodriguez i would use the Rod in my tix…Better fit IMO!
Great points.
River should skip the Derby and maybe consider the Preakness where a one paced horse can fare better, granted Pletcher never seems to do well there. Publisher feels like the typical clunk up horse; Probably not good enough to win but good enough to spoil the gimmicks. I’m not convinced the Wood was as good as the figure makers made it out to be, but, if the figures are legit, then Grande has the prototype breeding to win this thing. Raise A Native via Mr. P on top, Buckpasser through AP Indy on the dam side, and female family 23b (I’ll Have Another, Mine That Bird, Lil E Tee, Winning Colors, Affirmed). There might not be a better Derby pilot than Johnny V.
1 Burnham Square 130
2 Sandman 129
3 Journalism 122.5
4 Rodriguez 121.25
5 Tiztastic 119
6 Tappan Street 110
7 Sovereignty 110
8 Final Gambit 100
9 Coal Battle 95
10 Chunk of Gold 75
11 Citizen Bull 71.25
12 East Avenue 60
13 Publisher 60
14 American Promise 55
15 River Thames 50
16 Flying Mohawk 50
17 Grande 50
18 Madaket Road 46
19 Luxor Cafe Japan Noriyuki Hori
20 Admire Daytona E/ME Yukihiro Kato
Neoequos 40
Render Judgment
Baeza 37.5
On the Derby points list that includes Admire Daytona and Luxor Cafe in slot 19 and 20, Baeza has two horses ahead of him (Neoquos and Render Judgement)
That means two more horses will need to defect before Baeza will get a gate.
Correction, 3 more Neoquous and Render Judgrment decide to run.
Free Like A Girl = unsung hero. Amazing she sold for $5500 and her level of accomplishment- racing forty plus times. Yesterday, predicted she would run well…. she did.
So you’re not concerned about her heavy workload?
Lol, that’s rich! Perhaps making the case she’s still competitive after racing that often,compared to some calling a career after six starts. Actually, no way would I race her fourteen times in a single year.
Total class mare….runs hard and runs often, I was pleased to see The Grizzly win and The Louisianna Girl follow her home….
I hope she gets her graded stakes win. She certainly deserves it. Nobody can accuse her of ducking tough competition.
Exactly!
Steve:
With all the closers signed on, and majority of them will be going wide.
A horse like East Avenue could steal this with the ground saving trip and an angle you like second time blinkers?
Regards
John
John, couple individuals are writing East Ave off. He’s a talented horse.
I have written that given the running style of the likely top entrants East Avenue will be a dangerous entrant. He needed the BG start.
Good points! He’s no pretender.
It’s 20 days out and I just heard Baeza is #22…
The two lists I just looked at had him at #23, but neither list had removed Flood Zone yet, so it looks like you’re correct, Matthew. That’s exciting news!
Baeza is #23 on the American List but add in Luxor Road (Japan) and Admire Daytona (European/Middle East) who are not on the American List he drops 2 spots further down.
Good point. I’d forgotten about that.
Baeza belongs, and he’s a great story—CDI tweaked their points and removed 20% from the SA Derby–which has been a Derby feeder race for decades–make it make sense…
25%
If Journalism runs like Bullard (same trainer) did in the Lexington, the East Coast horses and nothing to worry about.
Tell me, is that wishful thinking?
Well if ANYBODY runs like Bullard—who is small in size,nearly 200 lbs less than Journalism..
An irrelevant analogy.
Not irrelevant.
Brad C says that Muhimma will be skipping the Kentucky Oaks. No surprise there. She has been very dull in her last two races.
Speaking of Brad C, what happened to Eclatant?
Nysos, so brilliant in winning his first three races, is listed as a possible for the Alysheba on Derby weekend. The trouble is that he will not have raced in 15 months since the last of those 3 wins. He is mostly known for posting fast workouts these days. They have started and stopped on him a few times. BB is terrific at getting horses to win off layoffs. But Nysos will be a “bet against” for me. I’ll let him beat me.
If hemakes it back on Derby Day will be interesting….
Bill D,
I just didn’t see what you considered impressive about Preator return race for his long layoff. He faded badly in the lane to be beaten by 5 1/2L
A supporter below questioned my conclusion that American Promise is slow by KD standard. The VA Derby was very fast. How fast? Try 1:08 plus & 1:33 plus fast. It’s this ultra-fast colt was not included in Steve’s 13.
Any horse with a resume of 9 starts and 2 wins cannot be considered fast. But then I might be blinded by my refusal to see.
I will have a very expensive edible product all over my face if I am wrong about Journalism. The colt seems to be #1 everywhere. What did I miscalculate?
Fierceness won the FL Derby by 13L pulling a bus and he was propelled to #1 on every list despite his trainer’s KD record. His best opponent emerged as a last out AOC 2nd place finished making his graded stakes debut.
Journalism won by 3/4L over a last out MSW winner making his graded stakes debut and he is #1 on just about every list.
I have simulated the KD and see Journalism in mid-pack from a good draw and a good break. From that position when asked to go after the leaders he will as usual hard ridden. Sovereignty, Sandman and Final Gambit will be in hot pursuit. East Avenue will be in full flight and will not be the push overs Barnes or Baesa were. So, Journalism will have to work harder to get to him and also dispose of Tappan Street/American Promise. Given his workman like running style, he will have very little left to repel closers the kind he has never encountered in any of his races.
Steve cited the time for Final Gambit’s last 3F in the Jeff Ruby. I wonder if his supporters really understand what the colt did coming off Lasix, forced to stop abruptly after the break and piloted 8W.
Not This Time is the sire of the winner of 3 KD preps. The wins by his progenies should occupy the top 3 slots for KD preps. Only Final Gambit will represent the stallion in the KD. Magnitude is out of a Bernardini mare, and he would have been a major player if present.
Excellent analysis, which is why I believe that Sandman and Tiztastic will be on the KD board and only do better at Belmont. A 20 horse field is a huge amount of horse flesh to navigate. I don’t see any wire to wire winners.
I’ve been skeprical of Journalism right along. Seems he runs against the same 4 horses everytime and those horses for the most part are vastly sub par to be polite…BUT….those other horses are all trained by bb. So if a horse beats a bb horse he “MUST” be great. He’s more likely to be the beaten favorite than the winner comd May 3…
You’re absolutely right that J is more likely to be the beaten favorite than to be the winner. He’ll probably go off at 3-1, give or take. Therefore, 75% of the betting public feels the same.
As previously stated, I am of the opinion the KD winner will be associated with the A P Indy broodmare line. I have listed the four in the top 20 whose dams belong to the broodmare line.
Obviously, I will be viewed as crazy to approach the selection of the KD winner from such an angle. I was laughed at when I invited folks to join in using Rich Strike their wagers. But am I crazy?
The A P Indy Broodmare line has been associated with the following –
2024 KD – 2dn & 3rd
2024 BCC winner – NB: 1st, 2nd &3rd were from the A P INDY broodmare line
2025 Saudi Cup Winner
2025 Dubai WC winner
2024 Jim Dandy 1st & 2nd
2024 Travers 1st & 3rd
2025 FOY winner
2025 Risen Start winner
2025 LA Derby winner
2025 Jeff Ruby winner
2025 VA Derby winner
The AP Indy broodmare line has been on a roll since the 2024 KD. BCC, Saudi Cup and Dubai WC. Next up, the KD.
The above should eliminate cynicism and wipe away the quite laughter.
You are correct and I applaud you on this research. Counter Point, I think you are onto something here. There are many horses on Steve’s list and other people around the country that publish lists that we don’t agree on, but everyone has a unique perspective, and it seems easy to single out horses and trainers that we don’t agree on. I come here because Steve shares his knowledge of Thoro-Graph with us, and I appreciate it. I am in the camp that Journalism is deserving of being the favorite for the Derby, unless he draws the 1 hole or the dreaded 17. (ha ha) Most of us who are holding early futures on these runners are grateful for Baffert to be unlocked from his prison because his presence elevated our odds.
Following up on your line of reasoning: A grey/roan hasn’t won the derby in 20 years. Therefore, Final Gambit, along with Sandman and Chunk of Gold, should be dropped from Derby consideration.
Caton Bredar won the Charles W. Englehard Award, good on her, always an excellent commentator for horse racing.
Betsy, try to watch the card at ParisLongchamp on Sunday, April 13. Some important preps and horses for the upcoming French Classics.
Notes below under your previous post. Watch the replays if you can’t watch the races live.
That’s Engelhard not Englehard.
David, I’m traveling to Bath today, so even if I could find a place to watch, I won’t have the chance ….
I haven’t noticed any racing replay shows, unfortunately
Betsy, they’ll be on YouTube for sure. Have fun in Bath, beautiful architecture and the Roman baths.
Thanks!
I had to stand the entire ride from Paddington because the train was packed like a can of sardines in large part because there was a rugby match here, lol
It is absolutely from what I saw today. In fact, the one thing I did today was go the Thermae Baths – they actually have a rooftop pool where you can soak in hot water from the springs….
That’s correct Betsy, not that I’ve been in the spa. Bath Rugby is one of the top teams in the country lucky you didn’t have to catch the train back to Paddington with them. Lol!!
If you have time, it’s lovely going up to the hill tops and looking down on Bath – the mind wanders back in time.
Response here and below (the older posts)
I was really wrong about Hypnus. Coming back in just 21 days and with a blazing :47.1 workout 5 days before the race were bad signs. I saw it completely the wrong way.
I was way off yesterday. Just 1 for 11 at Keeneland.
Not the way to go into Oaks & Derby weekend. I’ll take the next two Saturdays off to get my head right. Get my strategies together for the first Friday and Saturday in May.
Speak Easy lost for the second straight time at very low odds on the comeback trail. He looked like a superstar in the making after his first two starts. He looked rather ordinary in both of the last two defeats.
Negative effects of TP’ s High Octane.
Where is the colt that finished 2nd in the Champagne?
Where is the colt that defeated First Resort with consummate ease at Saratoga?
We could do this all day. Where is chancer mcpatrick, winner of the same Champagne? Where is Poster? Do those failures not fit a narrative?
Was wondering about Chauncer McPatrick too. Has my eyes on him for weeks. Seems to have dropped off
Great race by Gosger today, one of the better Derby prep performances all season. His form looked good. He raced along the rail, then off it and between horses, then passed those horses, returned to the rail and accelerated down the stretch (drew off). Great ride by Irad Ortiz. It’s too bad his development was delayed. Now he’s pointed to the Preakness.
He did what Journalism’s been doing, from off the pace, but he had more horses to contend with and moved around them deftly. In his previous race he won from being close up to the leader. This was a slower race than most, but within reason. The lead horse stayed on for second, others like Hypnus disappointed.
What a nice way to end the day, watching Anna do her thing!
I took the 3-1 odds–on a straight exacta to Free Like A Girl . .turns out it paid 4.70-1….nothing fillies are “automatic”…..
(Meant THOSE fillies)…
Awesome!
No doubt who prevails in Apple Blossom. Anna takes it. Free Like A Girl runs well.
Prevalining shed did indeed Mike…!
I cannot wait to see Locked, Mindframe, Fierceness, Sierra Leone, Mixto, Hit Show, and White Abarrio sweating bullets trying to defeat Queen Anna…!
Nelson,sets up for an interesting summer with Anna. Also, Free Like A Girl did well. Proud of her. How’s it going for you?
All good here… movie night with the family after a day of snowing here in Calgary.
Thanks for asking Mike!
You bet!
Baeza is currently 4th on the Bubble list to get in and waiting for more defections. The good news for Baeza is that DRF is reporting that the 3 ahead of him on the bubble would likely skip the KY Derby. This means Baeza likely only needs 1 more defection to get in. IMO with 3 weeks to go, it’s highly likely he’s gonna get in. Acre finishing second to Journalism in the SA Derby, he deserves to be there. The field is taking its final shape and IMO Journalism is the one to beat.
Joe, hope Baeza goes on to Preakness.
Days gone by.
I’m watching the races from Keeneland on TVG/FanDuel today. They showed all the people at Keenland for the races. It looks packed. Standing room only. I can remember being at Santa Anita on many days like that. Specifically, I remember being at the Big Cap the year that Vigors beat Mr. Redoy. It was so crowded that my buddy and I couldn’t find a place to stand, let alone a seat. We ended up on the 2nd floor of the grandstand above Clocker’s Corner and had to stand in the aisle. Mr. Redoy took a good lead into the stretch, and I didn’t think that favored Vigors could catch him. Not that I cared too much. I was on Crystal Water who had won the race the year before, and he was hopelessly beaten at the top of the stretch. I couldn’t tell if Vigors got up to win or not from our position and we couldn’t hear the track announcer over the roar of the crowd. After the race, we went inside to watch the replay which confirmed that Vigors had indeed won the race. Darrel McHargue was top-jock in those days.
A great experience. Sure, it was very crowded. You had to stand in line for everything. You had to get in line early to make sure that you got your bets in on time to avoid getting “shut out”. But I still miss those days of actually being at the track. Watching at home is more comfortable, but I am unable to create the same ambience of being at the track. Even as I look at my BB bobblehead to the right of my 65-inch TV.
The Derby in just 3 weeks.
I totally relate to what you said about “miss[ing] those days of actually being at the track.” I still haven’t gotten over the closure of Golden Gate Fields and am heartsick that there will likely be no racing at all in northern CA this year. As someone once said, “A bad day at the races is better than a good day anywhere else.”
Great story. Thanks for sharing. SA’s grandstand is massive. By your description there must’ve been 60 to 70k in attendance. I watch races via the Twin Spires feed. Keenlands grandstand appears to be the same size as Pomona’s or even Los Alamitos.
I was at the 1978 Vigors Bih Cap—Darrell McHargue-s SIXTH winner of that day….cane from 22 lengths back….
Wonderful memories TommyMcD.
Your remembrance made me look for the video and found a very good one actually entitled 1978 Santa Anita Handicap Vigors win The RARE Full Version
The time of 2:01 1/5 was extraordinary as the track was labeled “Slow” …
Vigors is damsire of the brilliant but underrated Free House…
Vigors big cap 78 you tube video is one for the ages ! A must see the white tornado !
It’s hard to believe that the Derby is just three weeks away. Barring any further defections, the Derby field has pretty much been established.
Currently, my top twelve are listed in preferential order:
1) Sovereignty
2) Journalism
3) Final Gambit
4) Luxor Cafe
5) Tappan Street
6) Grande
7) River Thames
8) Rodriguez
9) Sandman
10) Tiztastic
11) Burnham Square
12) American Promise
I remain hopeful that Baeza makes the cut, but with just 37.5 points, it doesn’t look good. More than likely, the Preakness will be his next start.
Good list, Bill. I agree with your top five. My budget will force me to limit myself to using six horses to construct my Derby bets and I’ve yet to decide who my sixth horse will be. I’ll wait for the post position draw on the 26th to make my final decision.
Good luck, Bill. I hope all horses remain healthy for the Derby. Although, I’d like to see Baeza get in.
Thanks, Dewey
I’m hoping Baeza gets in as well, I’ve got a $50.00 win wager on him at 53-1, in KD Futures Pool 6.
Good luck, Dewey.
There is no such thing as weak crop. Each year features a different crop with different skills set. With all the new horse that are now in the top 20 because of defections. The top 20 is comprised of 10 last out winners and a total of 14 that won a 3yo KD prep.
Some continue the nonsense of referring to crops as weak. Just the nonsense referred to as a pace meltdown.
In the 2025 A K Deby the two horse on the lead were setting fast fractions. The commentor specify they would be unable keep up that pace.
It doesn’t take rocket scientist to know that if horses set extremely fast initial fractions in a route race. They are unlikely to sustain same and will invariably fade out of contention.
Palace Malice set fractions of 22+, 45+, 1:09+ in the 2013 KD. He paid the price for going too fast and faded to 12th. If he was joined by another entrant and both faded. It would have been considered a pace meltdown. Is there such a thing as solo pace meltdown?
Yes
The 2013 Triple Crown taught many lessons about handicapping. Orb was a good horse and ran his best race, but he never won again. People have gotten upset with me for minimizing Orb’s achievment, but the KD was just a race, and Orb got the set up and the trip. Oxbow chased Palace Malice’s too fast pace and both faded. Oxbow and Palace Malice subsequently won the rest of the Triple Crown by setting reasonable paces. The rules apply to most races, even the KD, unless the horse is exceptional. And no, not all crops are equal.
So Irad rides Publisher….Prat currently has no mount—no way he won’t get a mount….Johnny V on Grande….
Matthew, I’m guessing that Prat may well end up either on Final Gambit or East Avenue. He rides a lot for Brad Cox and if Tyler Gaffalione doesn’t return in time for the Derby, then Brendan Walsh may call on Flavien. Luan Machado has been on both horses in their last starts, but I don’t think that he has any Derby experience.
My current five horse box….Journalism, Sovereignty, Rodriguez, Grande, Tappan Street….
Matthew, I can usually narrow the field to the best four or five. Not this year. I’ve got eight probable starters that are extremely close. At the top are Journalism, Sovereignty, Sandman, and Burnham Square. Close behind are Rodriguez, Publisher, River Thames, and Tappan Street.
My gut feeling is that this group will turn out to be the strongest group of 3yos in recent years.
I think it’s a weak batch but it’s early…last year was a strong batch! Ran one/two/three in the Classic and had the filly entered would have been top four! I don’t see anything remotely close to that, thus year…
Mindfrane…who was behind Fierceness, Sierra Leone, Dornoch, Forever Young—might have been #1 THIS YEAR….
We’ll know in December! Maybe last year’s BCC was deficient in TOP quality olders. Next and Arthur’s Ride were the older favorites in post-time odds.
The 2024 KD was completed in 2:03 plus.
At your earliest convenience rewatch the Jeff Ruby.
Does CDI understand that its new “Euro/Mideast Road to the Derby” makes no sense? I’m not a fan of the alternate “roads,” but it’s clear that the Euro part of Euro/Mideast Road has been left almost completely irrelevant. The UAE Derby maintains its previous points distribution in the new configuration. That makes the runners in the Euro races (still at 10 points to the winner of the early races, then 20 points in later races) to have almost no chance to match the 100-pt total of the UAE Derby winner, or even to match the 50-pt second-place horse. The only chance for those Euro runners is for the first two UAE finishers (or even the third) to decline the invitation to Louisville.
Professor Gordon Jones—nicknamed “Prof Jones”—I heard he entered hospice care, age 95….I used to see him hustling alongside trainers for a quick interview, at Santa Anita—he developed pick six strategies, and such, and was featured on the onl news racks, for various newspapers–“Read Prof Jones Here”….by all accounts a very nice man….
Sad to hear… I used to read his column in Herald Examiner when I lived in LA many years ago. He was one of the best !!!
I ran into the Professor often on trips to Las Vegas.
The horseracing page in the sports section of the old Herald Examiner was the best in California IMO.
Professor Gordon Jones is a big baseball fan.
The Professor always had a Racing Seminar at Sam’s Town in Las Vegas before the Kentucky Derby. It was always well attended. I loved listening to horse talk in Las Vegas.
I will 2nd that about th HE in LA.
There are many ways to narrow the 20 entrant Kentucky Derby field. Given the results of the last 4 years just about any approach can result in finding the winner.
One approach is to identify the category that has been pounding at the KD door and assess the category’s prospect of entering the door in 2025.
The category that has been pounding at the KD door is the AP Indy broodmare line. How was this determined? When one is frozen on the ladder of one’s life. Time is used to do things most wouldn’t consider.
In the last two KDs the post time favorite featured a dam from AP Indy broodmare line i.e., Angel of Empire and Fierceness. In the 2 renewals of the KD, the broodmare line was represented by several other talented entrants. See below
2023 –
Two Phil’s -2nd
Angel Of Empire – 3rd
Disarm – 4th
Hit Show – 5th
Rocket Can
Confidence Game
Kingsbarns
Cyclone Mischief
2024 –
Sieara Leone -2nd
Forever Young – 3rd
Just A Touch
Fierceness
In 2025 it will be represented by 4 likely starter 3 of which are ranked in the 13 above.
American promise
Final Gambit
Soveeignty
Tiztastic
Three are last out winners. No last out winner has emerged the winner of the KD in the last 4 renewals. That trend is likely to end in 2025 as 10 of the current 20 have won their last race.
I am of the opinion American Promise and Tiztastic are too slow to win. That leaves Final Gambit and Sovereignty. Since Final Gambit is amongst the last out winners and considering the trend is likely to change. He is the entrant from the A P Indy broodmare line that likely to enter the KD door.
There you have it is folks. How to identify a KD winner.
Folks, @30/1 the rest are running or 2nd.
Edit: for 2nd.
Grande has drawn into the top 20. With only three starts the TP trainee will attempt to emulate KD victories of Big Brown, Justify and Mage. How does Grande compare to the aforementioned three?
From a speed perspective he doesn’t compare. In fact, the Curlin has to be considered slow based on his PPs. He neither possesses notable tactical speed nor explosive late speed. He is a bit of a grinder whose only path to a KD win will be contingent on the top entrant proven to be ineffective over 10F.
TP has been reparented by 65 starters in possibly 23 KDs. A slow entrant with only 3 start is hardly a candidate to provide him with his 3rd win in the big race.
Whilst, that is your definition of a grinder, I kind of like this grinder. He ran widest of all around the first turn and settled in behind the early front runner, (who wired the field) and pace pressers and earned an Equibase number better than Mage in his 3rd start. He may not win the Derby but I’m not throwing him out of the exotics. As for your comment above, American Promise is too slow? 1:08 and change for 6 F is too slow? !;46 2 for 9 F is too slow? How so?
Subject to correction the colt has 2 wins from 9 starts. Which fast horse has such a resume?
Via Sistina with James McDonald wins the Queen Elizabeth Stakes to equal Winx’s record of 7, yes, 7 Group 1 wins in a season.
Star horse, star jockey, star trainer Chris Waller, best prize money, no wonder Australian racing is booming.
Saw that Davids!
Lynda, Via Sistina is in incredible form and has sustained her form all season.
Viva Via!..
Indeed, Matthew.
It might be a beautiful day here in Melbourne today but the racing is in Sydney, with rain of course, at Randwick. Four Group 1 races and three Group 2s but let’s concentrate on the Group 1s starting at 2:40 pm here, 4:40 am in New York. So wake up!! Ha HA
Race 6. Group 1 Australian Oaks 2,400m – 1 million
Race 7. Group 1 Sydney Cup 3,200m – 2 million
Race 8. Group 1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes 2,000m – 5 million
Race 9. TAB Queen of the Turf Stakes 1,600m – 1 million
The highlight is the Queen Elizabeth Stakes featuring the destined Horse of the Year Via Sistina only a few shackles short of 10,000,000 to be ridden by the golden lad James McDonald. If you like racing…
12:40 am New York that is for the Australian Oaks should be a great race
Davids, I really must start setting my recorder for these fabulous races. Thanks for keeping us up to date on Via Sistina, who has won Group 1s in Ireland as well as Australia. Who won the Oaks?
Ms Blacktype, Treasurethe Moment won the Australian Oaks yesterday, she has now won 8 in a row. Another star performer.
Remember with Via Sistina, she is beating male horses all the time she not racing against her on gender. It was a great day of racing.
Thanks, Davids. Both are exceptional fillies.
Flood Zone will not run in KY Derby.
Opens the door for Madakat Road.
Thanks Lynda, it will be interesting to see how many runners Bob Baffert actually ends up entering in the Kentucky Derby this year.
Might be 3, CB, Rodriguez and MR.
Doubt very seriously if Barnes will make the cut.
Wouldn’t it be cool to have 2 Curlins finish One and Two in the KY Derby. It seems very realistic to me . Journalism/Grande.
Over the past eight years, Kentucky Derby winners have either descended from the Mr. Prospector sire line or the Norther Dancer line, (four from each sire line).
With respect to Steve’s top six, three are from the Mr. P line and three from the ND line.
Digging a little deeper, I would add Luxor Cafe and River Thames to Mr. P sire line.
Additionally, I would add American Promise, Final Gambit and East Avenue to the ND sire line. So, there you have eleven Derby prospects, six from the ND line, and 5 from the Mr. P. line. With respect to which sire line is preferable in producing this year’s Derby winner, I’d say it’s pretty much a wash.
That said, the next thing I would look at, is the dam side of those eleven prospects, relative to class and stamina, and rate them accordingly.
#1) Sovereignty, clearly the leader, relative to class and stamina influence.
#2) Journalism, a close second.
#3) Grande, bred from the Mr. Prospector/Northern Dancer cross, with numerous past Derby winners appearing within five generations.
#4) River Thames, inundated with class and stamina influence, (Discreet Cat, Forestry, Touch Gold, Grindstone, Deputy Minister, Private Account, Storm Cat, Pleasant Colony, Damascus, Numbered Account, Buckpasser and Unbridled.
#5) Final Gambit, his dam’s sire, the highly regarded Tapit.
#6) American Promise, inbred to A.P. Indy, and Tapit as his broodmare sire.
#7) Luxor Cafe, Miswaki is his 2nd dam’s sire.
#8) East Avenue, Ghostzapper is his dam’s sire, and Tapit is his 2nd dam’s sire.
#9) Tappan Street, Distorted Humor, a very influential broodmare sire.
#10) Rodriguez, several classy horses in the 3rd, 4th and 5th generation.
#11) Burnham Square, I’m not overly impressed with this gelding’s dam side which is the reason I have him at the bottom.
Pending the post-position draw, I’m back aboard the Sovereignty bandwagon.
From my perspective, he checks the most boxes.
If Grande goes off at double digit odds, I’ll place a fairly large win wager on him and certainly include him in my exotic wagers. I’ve got a $25.00 win wager on Grande, at 46-1, in Pool 6.
Well, that’s enough for now.
Thanks for posting info like this. Looking at pedigree query’s is a ritual prior to horses running in the 3yo classics for me.
You’re welcome, Robert.
If you are looking for class and stamina, thinking that Tiztastic being a double Tapit fills that bill in spades.
After winning his 2nd and 3rd starts on turf, Asmussen switched Tiztastic to four straight dirt races, finishing 2nd, 3rd, 3rd and 5th, respectively.
He showed marked improvement with his Louisiana Derby win, closing from far back, drawing off by 2 1/4 lengths, in a good time of 1:56.20, for the 1 3/16 distance.
Despite the fact that Tapit has never sired a Kentucky Derby winner, his presence, close up in the 2nd and 3rd generations, is a major plus relative to class and stamina influence.
Good luck with Tiztastic, William D.
Good review Bill.
I agree with Sovereignty and Journalism having apt Classic pedigrees. It is interesting that both got Bernardini in their distaff family.
Sovereignty got a cross similar to that of Mandaloun (i.e. Into Mischief/Empire Maker nick). Journalism’s damsire Uncle Mo is in vogue thanks to HoY Thorpedo Anna.
Another descendant of the A.P. Indy sire line (via Tapit) and another maternal grandson of Distorted Humor worth mentioning is Sandman. His dam, Distorted Music, got Arrogate’s cross in reverse (Distorted Humor out of an Unbridled’s Song dam) … I would put Sandman above Rodriguez in the pedigree ranking…
Sandman and Tappan Street are the only million dollar babies who have justified their price tag on the track in this trail.
Final Gambit owns a dirt pedigree in my estimation… Not This Time has proven to produce Derby material and Tapit as a broodmare sire will eventually throw a Classic grandson.
I am also happy to see two sons of American Pharoah in the Derby.
If you allow me the audacity of mentioning some “least fashionable” pedigrees I would take Flying Mohawk, Coal Battle, and Chunk of Gold…
The good thing is that all the Derby prospects show some superior sires/runners in their family trees.
Thanks for the reply, Nelson.
As per usual, your points are spot on.
You mentioned Final Gambit’s dirt pedigree, by Not This Time, out of a Tapit mare, and their major dirt influence. I couldn’t agree more, and I’ll include Final Gambit as part of several exotic wagers. I have a $50.00 win wager on him, at 30-1, in Pool 6. I’m looking forward to seeing what odds he’ll open at on the morning line. We agree on the “least fashionable” pedigrees as well.
BTW, what’s your take on the Japanese invader, Luxor Cafe? He closed like a freight train in the Fukuryu Stakes, which certainly caught my eye. One of these years, a Japanese colt will win the Derby, this could be the year.
Good luck with your final Derby pick, Nelson.
Luxor Cafe is an exceptional runner. His Furkuryu win was the most impressive performance in its history.
If Luxor Cafe gets acclimated to Churchill he will be a prominent player in the latest stages of the Derby.
We will have the opportunity to assess just that after watching him training under the twin spires…
An additional attractive would be having Joao Moreira for the first time in America. The outstanding jockey had ridden Luxor Cafe full brother Cafe Pharoah including his best performance being third in the 2023 Saudi Cup.
Luxor Cafe is better than his older brother for sure and the comparisons to Forever Young will be the talk of the town in the coming weeks …
Thanks again, Nelson.
Regardless of the topic, I always appreciate your informative input.
Thanks for sharing your research with us about the presence of the Northern Dancer and Mr. Prospector line in quite a few horses running in the Kentucky Derby this year.
I was lucky enough to be trackside when Grande won his first race as a 3 year old. He is so mature and classy for a young horse. That would be a great win for you with those odds.
You’re welcome, Terri.
As I mentioned earlier, Grande’s sire line leads directly to Mr. Prospector and his broodmare sire line leads directly to Northern Dancer. That breeding cross has produced 20 winners of Triple Crown races, Grande could be the 21st.
Mage, the 2023 KD winner, was latest colt bred from that mating cross.
Terri
BTW, River Thames, Burnham Square and Baeza were bred from that same mating cross. It remains to be seen if Baeza will make the cut. At this point it doesn’t look too promising. Prior to the closing of Pool 6, I made a risking $50.00 win wager on Baeza, at 53-1, (in hopes he would pull off an upset in the SA Derby), which he damned near did.
Thanks for all the info about Northern Dance and Mr. Prospector cross found in those well regarded 4 stallions.
Regardless of the finish in the Derby, I would look for Grande to be the favorite in the Belmont.
It’s great to see Luis Saez with a couple of winners today after his terrible fall on Tuesday. With Brian Hernandez busy with Thorpedo Anna at Oaklawn tomorrow, Saez will take over on Hypnus. I don’t like that Hypnus is coming back on short rest(21 Days). But I do like that he cuts back from the mile and three sixteenths of the Louisianna Derby, that he will add blinkers, and that Hypnus worked a bullet four furlongs in the mud on Monday. Presumably, with his new blinkers. And you know that Luis Saez will put him into the game earlier. Hypnus might even be a decent price after his form has been dirtied up in his last 2 races. Troubled trips in both.
It’s supposed to be sunny at Keeneland tomorrow.
Grande is in the field because Heart of Honor’s trainer has declined to enter him. I hope he does well.
My Friday two cents …
I don’t want to sound like a broken record but relying solely on speed figures and final times in handicapping could be misleading specially when the track condition is unclear.
That is the case of the Blue Grass … think about it… how come a Stakes seen as being full of class with the most Stakes winners competing including two Grade One horses, suddenly (as I heard/read in the media) is the “worst prep” just because its final time was the “slowest this decade” for the Blue Grass.
How you explain that Owen Almighty, who ran near 1 1/16-mile record times at Tampa, and the super fast River Thames, with his gallant photo finish against Sovereignty, despite both running their heart out never looked able to pass East Avenue at any point in the race.
Moreover, when you see a dead heat of the last two finishers only 4 lengths behind the winner, you know that everyone was all out in the Blue Grass Stakes.
Coming back to final times, East Avenue was faster than Harlan’s Holidy and Peace Rules both were Grade One horses who ended earning more than 3 million dollars…. so, again times are not a big deal in my book.
Helping East Avenue case anyway is the fact that his prior race at Keeneland, over a true fast conditions, he won the Breeder’s Futuriy clocking the third faster time for 8.5 furlongs on dirt (1:43 1/5). Extrapolating to the 9 furlongs East Avenue would have logged about 1:49 3/5…. great feat for a 2-year-old. You would expect East Avenue to be faster now as he is stronger and bigger as a 3-year-old. It is not farfetched to believe he will be peaking in the Derby after not getting much work in the Risen Star and showing a solid recovery in the Blue Grass.
In summary, if you set aside times and speed figures you may very well find out that the Blue Grass was actually more sensible prep than the Wood Memorial and even better in quality than the Louisiana and Arkansas Derbies.
East Avenue will likely be the pace maker to help Sovereignty chance; but you may have seen a lot races won by a consigned rabbits… barring any unforeseen circumstances I am using Burnham Square, East Avenue, and even River Thames in my Derby exotics.
Heart won’t run in the Derby, per Jamie, as the timeframe is too tight. However, he’s being considered for Preakness/Belmont .
It’s the right thing to do. Heart should be taken seriously if he runs in either or both of those races
Per Jamie, they are seriously considering the Preakness &/or Belmont, and only reluctantly passes on the Derby…..that speaks volumes
Yes Betsy, I read it in The Independent a couple of days ago. The Belmont Stakes would be the most logical.
There are some nice races at Newbury and the Curragh on Saturday to whet your appetite for the Classics coming up three weeks time.
Well at that time it wasn’t definite that they were passing on the Derby….hopefully Heart will continue to do well post Dubai
The Classica just come up so quickly….are there any horses you’re keeping an eye on?
Betsy, you really have to see how they are coming out of the winter break now and quite often never raced 3 year olds often surprise in the Guineas races.
Twain has been the winter favourite for the English 2,000 Guineas but keep your eye on Hawkeye he won the other day. English 1,000 Guineas Desert Flower and Lake Victoria are fighting favouritism.
Nonetheless, Zarigana the Siyouni filly in France is the most exciting 2 year old from last year she looks to become outstanding as a 3 year old.
I know, it’s crazy, lol – that would snd could never happen here!
Just for name alone I might root for Twain!
I’ll keep an eye on all of these – Thanks!
Betsy, Zarigana is running Sunday at ParisLongchamp in the Group 3, Prix de La Grotte. The second favourite is Safia, who is by Sottsass the Arc winning son of Siyouni the sire of Zarigana.
There is another daughter of Siyouni in the race as well, the undefeated Tigress of Gaul. Who will win? Exciting + Hope you can see the race live.
PS: There is also the Prix de Fontanebleau and Prix de Noailles as preps for the colt’s Classics.
Nitoi, by Siyouni, in the Prix de Noailles is a hope for the Prix du Jockey Club (French Derby) later in the year.
Betsy, racing gets very hectic now in Europe, you are so lucky being there to watch the races live. Allez, mes beaux chevaux!!
I’m traveling to Bath today, David, so I won’t….but maybe I’ll see them in person in Paris in June (I think Longchamp will be running then)!
Replying to the below….Siyouni must be the French Frankel, lol
I’ll be busy, so I don’t think I’ll be watching many races live, lol- I didn’t even see a racing channel!
Betsy, I know Bath really well it’s a beautiful place. I lived there for over a year. Have fun.
Siyouni is one of the elite stallions of Europe standing in the Aga Khan Stud in Normandy.
Sally,
I do not recall his name but there was guy who always posted the most interesting fun facts about the Kentucky Derby.
As of 2024 the stats on the first letter of winner’s name are as follows:
S – 19 out of 213 starters, last year 2010 Super Saver
B & C – 13 each
A – 12
M – 11
G – 8
D F L P W – 7 each
R – 6
H J T – 5 each
O – 4
N – 3
E I K V – 2 each
U – 1
Z – 1
Q X Y – 0
2025 – Sovereignty, Sandman
I love this! All the betting angles that people share make the road to the roses that much more enjoyable each year!
So excited! I just ordered Derby Mint Julep Glasses from Fanatics! We’re having a derby party this year at home and I want to be ready! We won’t have mint juleps however. I will make a tequila concoction instead. I really am liking Final Gambit. I know I ask this every single year about the Jeff Ruby winner, but could Final Gambit be another Animal Kingdom?
Better
Animal KIngdom and Two Phils came up big for me but I didn’t decide on AK until the week of the Derby. He was hitting on all cylinders!
I got some cash on Two Phils also. That was a great horse.
Instead of Mint Juleps i find using a good Bourbon (Bulleit) and Simply Limeade, (found in the juice aisle at your local supermarket) and put a small amount of salt on the rim (keeps the sugar content down)…found it to work perfectly. Tequila idea is great also!!
Liking Tappan Street / Chunk of Gold / Tiztastic tri/box as one of my Kdby tix construction.
Hey CC, always enjoy reading your astute comments.
Thanks for the utmost resepectable comment i’ve gotten in years!!!….LOL
My MO is trying not to be rude on blogs. I’ve learned a ton of info from you and Steve.
Man i’d love to hit this race. Funny my wife hit the Exacta box a few years ago. Maybe this year?
Thanks CC ! Another racing site we both know is nothing more than a ‘wild west show’ with some individuals not fit to be commenting. Your posts always display class.
After his recent work, yes!
Godolphin entered the 2024 BCJ & BCJF with the ML favorites and an excellent chance of winning both. Th filly delivered and colt was no show. The Boys in Blue ae heading towards having an opportunity to secure an even more significant double i.e., Ther KY Oaks and KY Derby.
Should Sovereignty, East Avenue and Good Cheer face the stater and leave the gates in good order, the quest will be on for blue on blue.
Good Cheer has won all 6 career starts and is likely to be both the ML & post time favorite. Will she be a favorite in the category of Rachel A? Not likely! A win isn’t guaranteed for Good Cheer, and she will have to work for it.
East Avenue and Sovereignty, both previously ranked at #1 are a formidable duo with complimentary running styles. East Avenue could ensure a very fast pace to all Sovereignty to use his ground devouring strids to secure aa win.
If Godolphin has serious shot at the KY Oaks & KY Derby double, so does the stable
of Brad Cox that has been banging at the KD door with 3rd and 4th place finishes in 2023 & 2024.
Final Gambit, Tappan Street & Good Cheer could provide this double.
There is a KY Oaks/KY Derby double wager.
As if we aren’t excited enough about The Derby, Steve posts the Journalism/Sovereignty story. Good Lord. As of April 11 I want Journalism, boring
It is easy to hype up our favorite horses during the Derby trail as we tend to magnify their strengths and forgive their weaknesses.
I don’t know if this happens to you, but as the run for the Roses approaches any hype starts turning into fear and worry bit by bit.
Fear for defections and worry about all the uncertainties floating in a battleground with 20 horses experiencing too many things for the very first time.
Everyone is expecting a peak performance of their horse but the reality is that no fewer than 60% of the Derby runners end up showing an “all-time low performance” in the 10-furlong Classic. There is a half dozen reasons for this… but that is a disccusion for another day…
There are situations before the Derby and during its running producing accidental beneficiaries and losers.
The following are examples of those causal episodes starting in 2019.
Omaha Beach, who Steve called a horse with no flaws, was the Derby favorite after trouncing the two early Derby favorites Game Winner and Improbable in his last two preps. In a brutal punch of bad luck Richard Mandella had to scratch the son of War Front due to an entrapped epiglottis three days before the Derby.
Authentic was left as the leading 3-year-old at Baffert barn after the injuries of Nadal and Charlatan who were striking winners of the two editions of the 2020 Arkansas Derby. Authentic was no match for Honor A.P. in the Santa Anita Derby. However, the extemporal September Derby gave the son of Into Mischief (as a May foal) enough time to mature. He was plenty strong and big to repel a stout challenge by the 7/10-favorite Tiz the Law in midstretch.
In 2021 frontrunner Medina Spirit was favored by the injury of the more touted Life is Good, who was more “blue-blooded” and faster than the son of Protonico. Medina Spirit ended up being the sole Baffert rep when Concert Tour and Hozier ran subpar races in the Arkansas Derby.
You cannot find a more disruptive pre Derby and Derby events than those in 2022. You all know about the providential way Rich Strike entered the Derby. A reckless pace (21 3/5, 45 1/5, …) triggered by the foreign horses Summer Is Tomorrow and Crown Pride (JPN) dragged all the top contenders into tracking a prohibitive tempo. That compounded by a lucky rail trip made Rich Strike the second biggest upset winner in the history of the Kentucky Derby.
In 2023, many people believed that the scratch of Forte opened a winning path for Mage.
Last year a perfect rail trip by Brian Hernandez Jr. led Mystik Dan to save at least 8 lengths over the whole field and was able to prevail by a whisker over the two fabulous cousins and champions in two continents: Sierra Leone and Forever Young.
I don’t want to jinx anything but there has not been any pre-Derby telluric situation so far … unless some of you believe that Magnitude’s injury have changed the complexion of the Derby.
We always pray for the horses to remain healthy before, during and after the Derby; and hope that everyone is able to run his race the first Saturday in May; but history tells that those are wishes of the naive.
May your favorite horse make you smile on D day… and if you should shed a tear let it be one of joy!
An excellent post. As a fan of Forte and Fierceness in the last two Derbies, I’m ready for some tears of joy. But I haven’t decided yet who I want to provide them.
Thanks for your reply Jiffy….!
Somehow your reply made me remember the fallen warriors during this grinding journey to the Triple Crown.
I had a minute of silence in my heart for the beautiful Ferocious.
And we wish a speed and full recovery for Magnitude, First Resort, Disco Time, Jonathan’s Way, Aviator Gui, Tux, Burning Glory, Hill Road, Surfside Moon, Mo Quality, Burning Glory, Rated by Merit, Tux, and Very Bold among the most noteworthy talented 3-year-olds appearing at some point in the Derby trail…
Well said Nelson! I for one, experienced exactly what you described.
Thanks kmi … it is good to know I am not alone there…!
Well said Nelson.
Thanks Joe!
Nelson.
Your paragraph covering the 2022 KD captured my attention.
There was a providential way in which Rich Stike entered the KD. Was it more providential than the way Mine That Bird entered the 2009 KD? Both KD winers’ entry was made possible by defections for one reason or another.
The fractions for the first 6F of the 2022 KD have been used to justify what is widely viewed as a pace meltdown. There is no such thing as pace meltdown.
2022 KD- 21.78; 45.36; 1:10:34 – Rich Strike closed from 19L of the pace to win
2013 KD- 22.57; 45.33; 1:09.80 – Orb closed from 17L off the pace to win
The fraction for the 6F of the 2022 KD were not the fastest recorded in a KD. Was Orb the beneficiary of the 6F fractions recorded in 2013? To date, Orb hasn’t been cited as a lucky KD winner. Probably because he was the post time favorite. I have never seen any comments concluded that fist 6F of the 2013 KD was reckless. The fractions were triggered by the first-time blinkered Palace Malice an American based entrant.
Mine That Bird won the 2009 KD skimming the rail. In fact, he went through a gap so narrow, rail paint was deposited on his rider’s booth. Was Mine That Bird also lucky to win via on an opening against the rail?
Both Rich Strike and his rider have never been given the credit both deserved for an unlikely win. Numerous reasons have been advanced to discredit the team.
The colt left post #20 and lost ground crossing over to the rail. He had to be navigated through a litany of tiring entrants and had to sharply change course twice. Despite a less-than-ideal trip he found the requisite energy to keep motoring forwards to record a victory for the ages.
When will it resonate that Rich Strike was the best entrant on the day?
Your take on Rich Strike’s amazing win is bee-ess.
He’s a Kenticky Derby winner…forever n ever.
I know! The bee-ess was his view about RS’s win being discredited.
Agreed!
Agreed Dominic.
Best horse was Epicenter….he also won The Eclipse, over Taiba—Taiba won three gr1s that year sndvery nearly a fourth, in The Haskell….Epicenter ran lights out, I. THE derby—he also was incredible at Saratoga….
I thought Rich Dtrike ran big, in The Travers…he also ran very well vs Hot Rod Charlie–Ritchie only won that one big race but he ran well in others….
His performance in the Travers was unreal! Under cruise control the entire trip. Could’ve stunned the world in the Classic…not to be.
@Matthew W I’m referring to Epicenter btw
Matt,
You apparently missed my specification of ‘on the day’
Epicenter defeated Rich Strike in the Gun Runner by 14L. He was clearly the better horse entering the KD. But he wasn’t the better horse on the day.
Rich Strike covered more ground and had to check of several horses, changed course sharply twice and still ran by Epicenter, if only just.
Correct!
As per usual, I cannot grasp the main point of your replies or their pertinence to the ideas I intend to convey…
I never mentioned the word meltdown nor said Rich Strike was not the best horse on Derby day. Furthermore, the word “discredit” is not in my dictionary.
I never said that the sectional times of the 2022 Derby were the “fastest”…
The theme of the post is how I fear and worry about the unforeseen, risks and uncertainties of horse racing; and how they have changed the luck of many from good to bad and from bad to good depending on which side of the fence they are….
I am talking fortuitous events the last six (6) years… if you wanted to talk about other years and touch unrelated topics, please, feel free to write a dedicated post accordingly.
As for Sony Leon, if you’ve paid attention you would know by now that I was born and raised in Venezuela during the era when horse racing was the most important entertaiment of the massess.
So, you won’t find in this forum anyone with more pride and joy for Sony’s exploit that day.
BTW for a guy who presumes to be a “longshot hunter” you should know that luck is one of the key enablers of Horse Racing.
Wonderful look back, Nelson.
Thanks Tony … I am glad you like it.
Hi Nelson, another great post. Thank you!
It now becomes the waiting game with so many questions, at least for me.
Who will make the AE? Who defects and why?
How do the entries look as they arrive at CHD? What does their works and gallops look like? Their demeanor both on and off the track. Very much a visual interpretation by me.
My approach is and always been different from most.
Simply just love the sport and the horses.
Thanks Lynda… your words always motivate and enligthen me!
Nelson, your posts illustrate great racing knowledge.
Thank you Mike … I really appreciate your kind words.
Remembering Triple Crown episodes comes easy to many of us and as joyful as it is personally it is even more cheerful to share them with all of you in this distinguished forum.
What’s impressive regarding your perspective is you leading with dignity, as opposed to an ego on constant display.
Steve, you must have the patience of a saint to put up with our comments, some which are really good and some which make me grit my teeth. Thank you.
It is tradition in my family to pick five Derby hotses. I like Journalism, Tiztastic, Coal Battle, Tappan Street, and based on your profile, Final Gambit. Baeza would have been on that list simply because of his remarkable dam. Geez, I hope he makes it to the Preakness and wins.
Sharon
Why would any post cause you to grit your teeth?
A diverse group support this space. Consequently, there will be a divergence of views. There will always be what are perceived as informed and uniformed opinions/views.
This where this forum useful as it provides an opportunity for all to expand their knowledge based.
Once a post isn’t offensive and grossly of topic, I cannot envisage it being teeth gritting worthy.
None of us agree with anything that is written in this forum. But few of us would be so impacted by a post that it causes the gritting of teeth. There are no extremists here.
The great philosopher Galileo stated it best. ‘I have never met man so ignorant that I couldn’t learn something from him.’
EDIT: None of us agree with everything
But the typo gave me a laugh.
I don’t agree with that.
😉
Another laugh.
Lol
It should have.
I diminished brain
My brother and I used to clock–at Clockers Corner, at Santa Anita—and we also watched the afternoon races from there, with a clear look at the far turn, a furlong and half from the finish line…..we could tell who was running well and who was not–by the way they leaned into the turn—tiring horses would lose their lean, and drift out… Rodriguez hugged the rail, in the Wood Memorial, a sign of stamina! Mike said he was hard to pull up—I think this guy might have another big performance in him! Maybe this year the Wood will pan out a couple of Derby trifecta fillers! My brother texted me—he noticed Rod—a front runner who kept his lean, kept his stride—and he’s the youngest horse in the field….
Love you perspective on Rodriguez! I love Clockers Corner!
Matthew, I agree Rodriguez is one of the ones. However, will there be another heated pace with EA who is hell bent making the lead as well?
Rodriguez is developing FAST….
Please continue believing that Jeff. You’re down to one horse.
Owen Almighty off Derby trail. Shocker!
Nice work spotting Journalism and putting him at the top so long ago Steve. I thought he was a decent horse, but that race in the Santa Anita Derby was the real deal. Thanks for all the homework you do!
At William Hill odds have consolidated for the top horses and Rodriguez is getting bet:
Journalism 3-1
Sandman 5-1
Sovereignty 8-1
Burnham Square 9-1
Luxor Cafe 10-1
Rodriguez 12-1 (was 15-1)
Tappan Street 14-1
American Promise 15-1
Tiztastic, Citizen Bull and East Avenue are next at 25-1
Flying Gambit moved from 45-1 to 33-1 after his 2nd work at Churchill Downs
Thanks biggy312, I always feel the bookmaking chains give you the clearest eye on the abilities of the actual runners, after all, they have the most to lose in the long run. They can’t afford to have a jaundice perspective.
Was the Claiborne Futurity East Avenue on display in the Blue Grass? That would be a no.
In the Futurity East Avenue set strong factions for 6F and covered 8F in 1:36 plus. He was eased before the line and as per his rider he was extremely song in the gallop out necessitating some effort to pull him up.
In the Blue Grass he again set strong fractions for 6F but covered 8F in 1:37 plus. He didn’t display the same energy level after the mile marker, compared to the Futurity. His late lead change which was one of the factors that contributed to his loss, signified he was tiring. The absence of his Futurity gallops out suggest he is nowhere near maximum fitness.
East Avenue displayed the hallmark of a physically imposing horse, in need of a race. There is also another factor that was evident. His stride mechanics is that of a turf horse. He is more up and down and doesn’t fully extend his stride ala Barbaro.
This leads me to believe that if the CD surface is still friendly to Turf/AW type horses. It could be one East Avenue relishes. Keen attention should be paid of his works at CD. If there is noticeable stride extension, this will be a game changer.
A fully fit East Avenue with more stride extension and no stamina limitations will be the entrant to beat. Why? The top entrants are mostly mid-pack & deep closing types. The Godolphin colt possesses a high cruising speed and can take advantage of the long run up to the first turn, whilst the mid-pack and late closers battle for positions.
The 2025 KD is ripe to be won by a high cruiser that can accelerate out of cruising and has the class to remain resolute to the line.
East Avenue appears to have those credentials.
I don’t think his knee action is that high.
OK!
His stride is certainly not fully extended in the stretch.
I agree with your earlier comment that they should take those blinkers off.
Curious as to why DRF or Equibase can’t or don’t provide points of call in PP’s for horses on races run in Europe, Japan or anywhere overseas? Technology has got to be there, maybe? Sure would be nice to have in evaluating 1st time starters in the US.
Steve, about your “little tidbit” in KOTD – Now you can add these two runners to the pace-rating club with Baeza:
Journalism 96/102/109 SA Derby
Rodriguez 93/103/101 Wood
Also, Baeza not only repeated the feat in the SA Derby, he did better than the MSW effort: 97/107/102
Now all I need to do is look at previous derbies to see if this really matters. 🙂
Prior to Bob Baffert’s three-year ban from Churchill, he brought his “speed horses” to the Derby. In 2020, Authentic went gate to wire, in an excellent time of 2:00.61. In 2021, Medina Spirit went gate to wire, in a good time of 2:01.02. As we all know, Medina Spirit was ultimately disqualified. This year, he has another “speed horse” in Rodriguez, who went gate to wire in the Wood, earning an Equibase Speed figure of 111 in the process.
Can Rodriguez wire the field in this year’s Derby like his sire (Authentic) did in 2020?
I’m beginning to think he just might. My only question, will Mike Smith retain the mount, or will Baffert look elsewhere? At age 59, it appears that Money Mike still has what it takes to bring home a winner. That said, I strongly believe that Mr. Smith deserves to be aboard Rodriguez in the 2025 Kentucky Derby.
I believe it too, Bill, and not just because I’m a Mike Smith fan. In a piece on BH the day after the Wood, co-owner Tom Ryan said, “Mike got along well with Rodriguez yesterday, and that’s the key to it–understanding the horse’s mentality.” Based on that quote, I’d say Mike’s got a decent shot at keeping the mount for the Derby.
BTW, Mike noted that Rodriguez was hard to pull up after the wire–an encouraging sign! I’ve certainly added him to my list of Derby horses.
Thanks for the reply, arlington
Yes indeed, the classic distance should be no problem for Rodriguez moving forward. If he draws on the outside post positions, it could have a major impact on his ability to get to the front. Hopefully, he’ll draw closer to the inside, which would be more conducive to his front running style.
BTW, I was born in Arlington, California, just outside of Riverside.
Good luck with your final pick in the KD.
I didn’t realize there was a town named Arlington in CA! That’s neat.
Good luck with your pick(s) as well!
A story from my mutuel teller days. 2002 Derby race just finishes not official yet, a short Italian grandfather followed by about 15-20 family members comes to my window. He says “ I liked Perfect Drift” I noted he ran 3rd. He then said “I boxed him in a trifecta with the Baffert and Lukas horses” War Emblem 20/1 and Proud Citizen 23/1 (Perfect Drift 7/1). Price comes up, everyone goes crazy, $18,000+. He wanted cash. It’s a little nerve racking counting out over $13,000 in cash, did it twice – we were all pretty nervous, $100 tip was nice. I think the exacta was $1,300 for $2. So American Promise/Rodriguez box is on my wager list.
Addendum: Medaglia D’Oro ran fourth $91,000 for $1 super. Jockeys: Espinoza, Smith, Delahoussaye, and Pincay. All of the principle participants were at or near the top of their games. It’s a strange and wonderful adventure.
Jerry Flom–That’s an incredible story. Thanks for sharing it. Your wager might do well.
Thanks Steve, you deserve to have two co-favorites at #1. You have earned it. A great back story to these two and how they were raised and trained together.
With Journalism ‘regressing’ from a -1/2 to a 1 1/2, do you see any concern here?
Watching Rispoli begin to ease him a few yards before the wire after going by Baeza, gives me confidence that he was saving him for the next one at 10 furlongs.
Not being able to separate out some of the lesser but able talents, I’m inclined to use the alphabet method of Derby Horse selection this year, a method which netted me a nice take-home in the year American Pharoah won, seeing that Ph makes an F sound, and all the Fs were primed for a win. So for me it may be a G year, with Grande, Gambit and Gold in no particular order. If I decide to add in a bit of a rhyme scheme I’ll toss in Sand and get a foursome of Sand and Grande and Gambit and Gold. I think the top two picks of writer Steve Haskin will face a different game when in a 20 horse field, and so J and S are no’s for me this year I think. Anyone like the B method? You’ll package up Baeza, Battle and Burnham! Ha!
Sally, I believe you are playing fast and loose with the rules of the more traditional Derby Alphabet Method, what with the deviation related to sound and the use of the second name. But it’s your system, and who am I to be critical.
I offered a few name-based exactas the other day. Here’s one more. A very hot tri-box of BURNham Square, Caldera, COAL Battle, Dragon, and PASSION Rules. I know some of them are out of derby contention, but does it matter?
Steve–What about those girls? I think it will be a very good field for the Kentucky Oaks this year. There is lots of quality in the field. I wouldn’t be surprised if Darley buys into or looks to own La Cara who has a Darley bred Sire (street Sense) and Darley bred brood mare sire (Bernadini). Darley owns quite a few Bernadini mares.
And Bernadini is a terrific brood mare sire.
He’s a phenomenal BMS …god, I miss him.
I’ll never forgive Godolphin for not running him as a 4 year old
Hi Betsy–What a gorgeous stallion Bernardini was. He was the king of their farm in Kentucky and he knew it.
I don’t understand it either. Maybe he had a physical issue.
No physical issue. They just wanted to start breeding him. What an older horse he’d have been.
Did you get to see him in person? I never did, but he was magnificent
Betsy–I saw Bernardini at Darley. And he was a gorgeous horse. He was regally bred and regal in appearance.
Wow, Terri…..I can just imagine
He died way too young, just like Pulpit. Thankfully Indy lived N exceptionally long life
There is a reason they didnt run him at 4, but its too involved to go into right now. I was really upset they retired him. One of the most magnificent looking horses I have ever seen. No markings but you could spot him 100 yards away
Oh really, Steve? I just assumed it was the usual…
What a talent he was. I don’t recall being this upset when Indy was retired, mostly because I think I was grateful that he was going to stay in the US…
He had no markings but you could spot him 100 yards away. Absolutely magnificent looking horse
It’s funny, but I gravitate to plain, dark horses – plain in terms of no markings, but just stunning specimens. I honestly think Slew was magnificent even though most wouldn’t describe him that way. It must have to do with having read the Black Stallion books as a kid
**My favorite horse is Man o’War, the complete opposite of the above, lol- but Walter Farley can take responsibility for that, too, lol
Steve Haskin and Betsy–It was sad for racing that Bernardini and his great damsire, Secretariat, were retired so young. I’ll bet that Bernie could run on grass like Big Red. And Secretariat could have traveled to Royal Ascot and raced at Prix de l’Arc de Trimphe.
Bernie was really a dirt bred horse, so I’m skeptical of how he’d have done on turf…BUT, Pulpit never ran on turf, and he was a very good grass sire (and passed that down to Tapit), so you never know
Now Pulpit is underrated – talk about a brilliant horse
Thanks Betsy. Pulpit surely was overlooked.
I have long held the belief that Godolphin’s long quest to win the KD will not end with a post time favorite. The history of the operation can be used as guide.
Essential Quality belongs to a small group that have secured the Eclipse for Champion 2YO & 3YO. He was Godolphin’s only post time favorite and to date their best entrant n thee KD. He finished 4th. This reaffirmed by belief that the Boys in Blue will not win their first KD with a post time favorite.
It’s unlikely that either Sovereignty or East Avenue will leave the starting gates as the favorite. The leading contender; BB’s likely 3; Cox’s likely 3 and TP’s likely 2, should ensue even more widespread wagering.
From making the rounds. It appears the KD is for Journalism to lose. The bar for favoritism sems to have been lowered. A 1 1/4L win over foundationless opponent and a 3/4L win over a last out MDW winner, is good enough to be propelled to pre-KD favoritism. Maybe I am being a bit naughty. Journalism did win consecutive 3YO KD preps. But didn’t Coal Battle do the same? Oh! well, he isn’t by Curlin and out of an Uncle Mo mare.
So, which of the likely Godolphin two will be at the longest price? That is likely to be East Avenue the one with the most tactical speed. Could be in store for a repeat of the 2021 Epsom Derby?
Bolshoi Ballet (Journalism) was the favorite. Hurricane Lane (Sovereignty) a joint 2nd choice. It was the Godolphin longshot Adayar (East Avenue) who was knocked down from 40/1 to 16/1 that emerged the winner. It should be noted that Hurrican Lane finished 3rd. minus a shoe and race favorite Bolshoi Ballet finished off the board.
Only a person missing a few screws would visualize the outcome of the 2025 KD to be similar to that of 2021 Epsom Derby. Cray is what crazy does!
East Avenue has 2 wins, both wire to wire, in his first two efforts, so one of those was a Maiden race and off of that he was made the favorite for the Juvenile. He hasn’t won since. He is a money burner. I suggest you get crazier and put another $200 on him to win the Derby. Good Luck. Meanwhile, the tortoise, American Promise, made six starts last year looking to break his Maiden, he found it on a muddy track. This year in two stakes efforts he lost out to two horses that wired the field, Speed King in the Southwest and Magnitude in the Risen Star. He earned 5 points toward a gate in the Derby. In the Virginia Derby, it’s not his fault that John Hancock scratched out and Getaway Car with Irad aboard couldn’t keep up. Sometimes the tortoise beats the hare.
Rob,
I doubt we have ever shared an exchange under this name.
All the cold facts you highlighted regarding East Avenue ae accurate with the exception of the colt being a money burner. Two wins & 2 losses equate to a break even.
If you disagree with break even. here goes! If the profit made from East Avenue’s 2 wins was invested in his two losses. The gambler would not be in a loss position as the principle sum that was invented in the two wins would be intact. No money burnt.
THE FOLLOWING HORSES NEVER WON A 3YO RACE AHEAD OF THE KD:
2021 – Rich Strike
2010 -, Super Saver
2009 Mine That Bird
205 – Giacomo
Not winning as a 3YO ahead of the KD doesn’t preclude an entrant with that status from winning. I hope you find same educational.
You are correct regarding American Promise. I wish you the best of luck
Don’t forget Funny Cide…
Agreed Dominic.
Neither here nor there but Jesus I loved that horse. He’s not the best horse I’ve ever seen, but if you need a ride through the fires of Hell with a shot to come out alive on the other side?
Funny’s your guy.
What a great line. If youre on Facebook check out the story I posted last week
I beg to differ. Most people did not bet on East Avenue from the get-go to get those 2 wins and 2 losses. Most bettors didn’t have a clue who he was until the BC Juvenile. They did wager huge amounts on him in the BC Juvenile and this year in the Risen Star and enough to make him the favorite in both races. He ran out of the money. Everyone who bet on him lost money. He stopped exactas, tris and superfectas. He stopped daily doubles and pick 3’s, 4’s and 5’s and 6’s. Face it, he is a money burner. Those are the Coldfacts.
He’s no ‘money burner’.
Your reasoning is suspect. You make a hypothesis that Godolphin will not win a KD with a favorite. You offer as evidence 2021’s Essential Quality, Godolphin’s only favorite among their 12 KD entrants.
So first, your sample size is ONE. Second, Essential Quality is Godolphin’s best derby finisher. He was fourth by ONE LENGTH. Consequently, you seem to conclude that the Godolphin’s two likely runners (or one of them) in next month’s derby are solid win candidates, despite previous non-favorite Godolphin runners being 0 for 11 in the derby (best of those, Frosted, was 4th).
Care to reconsider your logic?
It’s called an OPINION, Tony. East Ave is plenty talented.
Once again, Mike, you misunderstand a posted comment. It’s getting tiresome.
Not as tiresome as someone gravitating to become the “loudest voice in the room”. Not impressed.
Steve, your analysis is always so insightful.
I remember seeing Charismatic in the paddock in SoCal as a claimer thinking what a strong-looking horse. I tossed him in the Lexington based off his PPs but he tipped his hand for the Derby and I had him. Wayne has pulled those rabbits out of that proverbial hat now and again like no other trainer.
In the guessing game of trying to figure American Promise, how fast was his number compared to that 5 he ran as a 2yo?
Thank you Marc. I watched Wayne graze Charismatic every afternoon and he couldn’t stop raving about great he looked. This is kind of similar. Both powerful .muscular colts I’m still trying to figure this colt out. I have no idea how legit that race was. AP got a “1” on Thoro-graph. Now 7 weeks . Hasn’t been done since 1915. Saw
Marc,
Your comments were directed Steve so I hope no offense will be taken for my unsolicited comments.
The trainer’ colony is much stronger since the days of Charismatic. If not for the VA Derby, American Promise wouldn’t be in the spotlight. Let’s take a deeper dive in the colt resume.
Before the VA Derby he had made 8 starts with one recorded victory. In that MSW victory he finished ahead of notable super maiden and KD qualifier Publisher. In his 7 defeats he finished off the board 5 times and record a best finish of 3rd. He was also unplaced in 2 KD preps. Outside the VA derby inaugural, American Promise had no path to winning a KD prep.
The field being assembled for KD 2025 is significantly stronger than the one Charismatic faced. The ever-celebrated BB had 3 entrants in the 1999 KD, that included the post time favorite General Challange. None hit the board. It is extremely difficult for a KD entrant with kind of resume that American Promise possess to emerge the winner of the KD in the current era. The talent pool is too deep.
I am a longshot hunter, and I do not find American Promise appealing for serval reasons. The chief being, I have been unable to find a KD winner who set a NTR in its start before the KD. Bellamy Road was far more impressive in his record run in the Wood. He finished off the board.
It’s a horse and on any given 1st Saturday in May any result is possible.
I found one. Spend a Buck in the Garden State Stakes ran a 1:45.80 for 9 furlongs.
My gratitude.
Anyone who missed the Bluegrass or likes extra coverage, from the paddock to the winners circle, enjoy this clip. Predict I know you’ll like it. On youtube type in ?v=UwJatx DwEt. Excellent camera work.
Interesting how all the talk is of how Journalism will handle a larger field but nobody is questioning the same about Baeza who seems to be the “it” horse right now. After rewatching the SA Derby a few times, I saw two Baffert horses that didn’t want the distance and Baeza getting a pretty decent trip albeit wide on the 1st turn. Journalism had zero business winning that race. I understand that Baeza is a May foal and has much room to improve but I see a lot of Journalism’s sire in the way he runs and development is almost guaranteed. Tactical speed, can overcome trouble while swallowing dirt, and finishes strong- this is a pretty good animal. Will be tough to beat with a good post.
Nasal Stripes help to open a horse’s airways and ease airflow through the nasal passages. I have noticed that Journalism runs with one.
Is this viewed as a RDM and not allowed in the KD? If so, will its absence impact Journalism performance?
Nasal strips are allowed. I remember most recently Mage wearing one.
Thanks.
California Chrome had nasal strips when he won the Derby in 2014
Fun fact, they used to not be allowed in New York and Chrome’s connections said they would seriously consider skipping the Belmont if he couldn’t run with one. After Art submitted an official request they were allowed at all NY tracks.
Any chance anyone has estimated final 3/8th mi. time for Tiz and Chunk of Gold in Louisiana Derby?
TYVM
Hi Shug … the last 3.5 furlongs was about 44 2/5 for Tiztastic and 45 flat for Chunk of Gold….
You may subtract 6 3/5 or 6 4/5 seconds from 44 2/5 to estimate Tiztastic time for his last 3/8-mile … that would yield 37 3/5 or 37 4/5 as your likely answer for the winner.
That’s great, Nelson. V much appreciated. Thank you.
Should Journalism win The Derby….Baeza could enter The Preakness as 2nd choice—he got carried wide, on the clubhouse turn and at top of stretch got to lugging in some—horse hasn’t yet run his bestrace–will have a big shot in Maryland..
He might get in yet. He did run a great race and he’s a youngster, May Foal. So, good chance he will improve next out.
John Shirreffs said they aren’t going…they don’t want to make the trip unless it looks like they will get in…
Makes sense.
Does it? Why do the connections of all previous AEs decide to compete?
Yes Tony it makes sense. Why ship if in doubt?
You didn’t answer the second question, which is the critical one.
Maybe they aren’t shipping from clear across the country to maybe not even get to run?
MaiyaDay, in the past three years there have been six AEs. Four of them, including Rich Strike, have gotten into the Derby gate.
Cause they do.
Looks like Prat will ride the maiden this year….hellhave a wee bit less pressure than, say—Rispoli and Franco—Prat has hit the board (top four) on most–if not all of his Derby mounts…..in Ark Derby—Publisher broke slow and got pinched back…came widest—Prat hmgets overbet–I’ll probably not include him—but what a story if hhe wins..
I can’t see the odds dropping significantly on Publisher because Of Prat. 20 horse field, a dozen or so more highly regarded, I would think the post time odds will be 20+/1. That said he will be used by a lot of bettors in exotics.
Burnham Square
Journalism
Sovereignty
Coal Battle
East Avenue
My top 5. Not in any order yet. That will come later.
Might possibly add Sandman.
Of the two entries from Japan I prefer Daytona over Luxor simple based on pedigree.
You all have fun working on all the betting angles.
Nice list Steve. Thank you for the updates after the Blue Grass.
Have enjoyed reading everyone’s comments.
The Lexington is the last Derby points race and will be run on Saturday. It drew nine entries, but I think that only seven will run at most since two of the entries ran on Monday. I would like Bullard if it were not for that 4 weeks that he missed after getting a fever. He shows four decent works since that break. Maybe they are enough to have him ready. I might give Hypnus another shot. He will be coming back quick in just 21 days after flattening in the stretch at FairGrounds in a race maybe a little longer than he wants. He also got cut off in the stretch by another horse. Trouble that is not mentioned in the trip notes. Hypnus will add blinkers and Luis Saez if he feels better after a fall yesterday. Hypnus had trouble in the Rebel as well. He meets easier competition on Saturday.
Praetor and Gosger both look good as they try Stakes competition for the first time.
There were four contributary factors to East Avenue’s defeat.
(1) improper analysis of his poor Risen Star performance
(2) Blinkers
(3) Inappropriate race strategy
(4) Late lead change
As specified previously. When a horse that assesses to be is fit and well, delivers a poor performance and post-race evaluation uncovers nothing internal or external contributed to same. The default has to be the venue and most likely the surface. I concluded the time frame in which East Avenue depleted his energy recourse was due running on surface that simply drained him. Like turf horse running on dirt. No changes to what worked in his 2 wins was necessary.
A horse with excellent tactical speed doesn’t need blinkers. the headgear has the effect of promoting focus and more forwardly placement. EA didn’t exhibit a lack of focus in his 2 wins. Blinkers would only serve to make him go faster in before switching thus burning valuable petrol where not need.
Why the plan to secure the lead at all costs? A colt as fast as AE can use his high cruising speed to find the lead without urging. The plan to aggressively put him on the led to a 22 plus first panel which he paid for later. Owen Almighty ‘s trainer alluded to the fact that he isn’t a router. Just track him and pass at will.
That late lead change was costly. When I saw 5/1, I jumped in, and that late lead change was the final negative of 4.
East Avenue need that stiff race to season him. He will be a dangerous horse at CD as I am of the opinion the surface at CD is one, he will enjoy immensely and suitable to the lead he craves.
EDIT
a more forward racing position.
They say Churchill Downs’ track is different than Keeneland, generally not as fast but also conducive to turf and AW horses.
I agree the tough race will help him. I think he has a bit of an aura, he had to find stamina to stay in front up until the end in a heart breaking loss. The big thing would be if he could wire the Derby, he would have to improve quite a bit, but after the slow start this year, that’s a possibility, however remote. If you want to gamble on him doing that, so be it.
I also think he’s fastest of all potential entries at the break, when not stumbling, and would be quickest to get up to the lead.
Below is the group from which the starters covered by my $200 KDFP wager on ‘All-Other’ will emerge. Currently the # stands at 10 with 2 on the bubble.
(01) Burnham Square – 130
(06) Tappan Street – 110
(08) Final Gambit – 100
(10) Chuck Of Gold – 75
(14) Publisher -60
(16) River Thames – 50
(17) Flood Zone – 50
(18) Lexor Cafe
(19) Admire Daytona
(20) Heart of Honor
Bubble-
(21) Flying Mohawk
(22) Grande
The All Other odd for Pool #3 is 4/1. Nothing to be excited about. However, I am using Poo #3 wager to determined which pool carries is lowest risk and highest prospect for reward when wagering the All Others betting interest.
If the 10 above fill their slots. I will have 10 entrant tag team defending my $200. Even if 2 drop out, the number will be restored if my favorably positioned bubble horses opt to run.
If this wager works out, I will likely increase the wager gong forwards, contingent on a review prevailing trend and their likely continuation.
You have some decent shots there.
Strike Grande as he was abetting interesting Pool#3. Render Judgment is his replacement.
Counter, I like reading your posts. I also have Pool 3 as I did last year where Dan saved me. We do not get Tappan Street, though.
Thanks.
You are correct regarding TS. I just revisited my spreadsheet, and he was not there.
Not knowing if Luxor Cafe would ship over for the Derby, I went out on a very shacky limb, placing a $50.00-win wager on him, at 19-1. The same can be said for Baez, not knowing if he will make the Derby starting gate, I placed another $50.00 win wager on him at 53-1.
Additional wagers that I placed in Pool 6 are as follows:
River Thames, $50.00 to win, at 49-1.
Final Gambit, $50.00 to win, at 30-1
Owen Almighty, $50.00 to win, at48-1 (faded in the Blue Grass, future undecided)
Grande, $25.00 to win, at 46-1.
$2.00 Exacta wagers:
Boxed Luxor Cafe, with 17 horses
Boxed Journalism, with 8 horses
Boxed Sovereignty, with 8 horses
Boxed Citizen Bull, with 8 horses
And last but not lease, I boxed Journalism with Sovereignty in a $50.00 wager.
Hi Bill,
Care to share the reason/s for your total dismissal of East Avenue in the BG.
CP
Based on East Avenue’s last two starts, finishing 10th in the Risen Star, and 9th in the BC Juvenile, I was reluctant to use him in the Blue Grass, not knowing if he regained the form he displayed in the Breeders’ Futurity. River Thames was my top choice in the BG, who finished a respectful 3rd, within a length of the winner.
I’m sure you’re aware that I’ve been very high on RT for several weeks and continue to believe he could be a legitimate contender in the Derby, if Pletcher decides to run him. He has the points, so why not?
Noted.
Burnham Square traveled 42 feet more than East Avenue, according to the Equibase GPS chart.
I noticed watching the head-on, he was basically four-wide around the first turn as well to stay out of the spray.
Very impressive!
If I was making the sheet number, it would be -2 or -3
If you figure a length is 8 feet, that’s 5 1/4 lengths.
I saw that which is why I figured he gets a big T-Graph. No. Not sure about -2 or -3. or if I want that good a number. dont want a bounce in Derby.
Just read the Blood Horse Derby Dozen. My goodness. Journalism 2nd and no Rodriquez and Citizen Bull included. Not sure what to say.
Do you honestly believe CB us a true Derby horse?
EDIT- is
Quite the opposite. I am not sure why an “expert” would make such a choice. Maybe there are other factors at play?
What choice?
After seeing his Santa Anita Derby run you still think that Citizen Bull has a chance in the Derby?
Hardly no chance to get 10f.
What do y’all make of the Oaks fillies?
Coal Battle has been getting some nice coverage at CD. He has a lovely, calm expression. I call it the look of an old soul. He’ll need to run faster, but maybe he can.
East Avenue was very impressive as a 2yo and maybe he’s rounding back to his dominant form. I always tell myself that when a 2yo flashes exceptional talent, never assume that it’s gone after a few disappointing races.
I want to see Journalism at CD, but I’m pretty sure he’s my #1 pick.
Some strong fillies at the top: Good Cheer, La Cara, Ballerina d’Oro, Tenma, and Simply Joking are all contenders. Take Charge Milady and a few others improving.
Derbyologist I like Good Cheer for the win.
Good Cheer looks very strong. She’s done nothing but win.
I don’t know much about most of the contenders but the few races that I’ve seen were won by front runners. If Take Charge Milady gets a fast pace with a bit more ground, she might make things interesting.
Don’t forget Quietside, she is maturing nicely and should be a contender
I really like Quietside. I hope she runs well.
Steve – Luxor Cafe is officially coming over for the KY Derby. IMO he is a serious threat based on talent, accomplishments and pedigree to handle the KY Derby Distance. IMO definitely a live longshot who deserves to be ranked in the top 10.
He always has been. Just some shipping red tape was holding it up
If ever a horse from Japan…to me—2025 seems soft batch—2024 was a strong batch….
I was accused of harboring Ill-will for a less than flattering critique of Chancer Mc Patrick ahead of the BCJ. Despite McPatrick’s two G1 wins, I didn’t consider the high regards in which he was held as deserving.
The colt’s resume reflected an average win margin of a little over 1L. He was always fully extended to defeat modest opposition that he trailed by 8L on average on the back stretch. His last win before the BCJ signified he was all hype.
In the G1 Champane he was fully extended in a workman style manner, to defeat a last out MSW winner, who was likewise fully extended to break his maiden by a nose. A colt with such a resume was not deserving of the accolades bestowed on him, driven by G1 wins and assigned Beyers and sheet numbers that so many think signifies real talent.
The opponents against which wins are recorded are just as important measures as the visuals of said wins. Chancer MacPatrick’s wins when not viewed through the lens of speed figures and numbers, were nowhere near appealing. His last place finish in the BG as the 2nd choice in the wagering only reaffirms that my less than stellar assessment of the colt ahead of the BCJ holds true.
Fierceness was an impressive winner of the 2024 FL Derby against a modest group. His performance was never viewed from the perspective of the opponents
assembled against him. But rather by his wide margin win and resulting Beyer and TG number. Those from the FL Derby that joined him in the KD, finished 18th & 19th by a combined 77L.
As we go forwards must endeavor to not make the mistakes of the past by relying on the same old formulas that fail to incorporate pertinent details that only the experienced eyes can discern
The last Blue Grass associated with a KD winner retuned a winning time of 1:51.33. It was the runner up that returned to win the KD. Margin that separated the winner and runner up was a nose.
The final time for the 2025 renewal of the Blye Grass was 1:51.33. The margin that separated. Burnham Square and East Avenue is a nose.
A Blue Grass assessed to be slow produced a KD winner from a field that featured three exceptionally talented colts from what can be considered a premium crop.
Do not for a moment write off the winning chances of East Avenue.
Point-Counterpoint. That race with Street Sense was run on a synthetic surface.
I am aware of same.
Are slow times record on AW and dirt?
Did he finish 2nd by a nose?
Did he return to win the KD?
Do dirt surfaces differ?
That is four questions and all yes. That 151.33 for Street Sense was the slowest finishing time during the synthetic movement 2007-2014 at Keeneland. Dullahan won in 1:47.94 on same surface. Didn’t win Derby. Sierra Leone won in 1:52.13 on dirt. Didn’t win Derby. So, times and performances don’t matter. Qualifying for a gate and surviving a 20-horse rodeo does. Counterpoint, I’m writing them off.
Say what you will Rob. I don’t lose my mind over times. Beyers are rubbish.
If I remember correctly, the Street Sense Blue Grass featured a glacially slow pace and involved an all out sprint the last 1/4 mile. It bore no resemblence to this edition of the Blue Grass. Final time can be meaningless without considering pace.
Counter, as usual no reply,but stated for two months EA should not be counted out.
EA has no chance
Lol A better chance than Citizen Bull.
As of this moment it looks like the same usual suspects…
Cox – 3 starters
Baffert – 2 starters
Pletcher- 1
Asmussen – 1
Lukas – 1
Casse -1
McCarthy – 1
Mott – 1
Outside looking in….
McPeek
AND Chad Brown
Do you consider McCarthy a usual suspect?
Satire.
John,back three months when some gushed how one barn was LOADED, my comments were a long time until May. Journalism is a man among boys!
Steve hates to rank 3-start colts high. It is a risky proposition to do so, but what isn’t risky when we’re talking about Derby prospects. Since 2000, there have been 20 such starters in 12 derbies. Three have won: Big Brown, Justify, and Mage. Todd Pletcher, the trainer of this year’s Grande, is the King of Three-Race Derby Runners with 7 of them. In chronological order, his 3-race derby runners have finished 11th, 6th, 14th, 13th, 11th, 17th, and 14th. Brad Cox, trainer of Tappan Street, has had two, and they finished 10th and 20th.
But 4-race runners do worse, so go figure. They are 2 for 36 since 2000. And one of the two was the DQed Maximum Security. The other was Animal Kingdom. Someone mentioned information overload. Sorry for contributing to it. Ha ha!
Steve my top five are in your top Six! I left out Burnham…he might hit the board–he keeps coming! Winning would surprise me—but we’re pretty close –we usually are….
Burnham reminds me of a VW Micro Bus….runs all day but takes a while to reach top speed! He even runs like a bus!
Matthew, I think you just gave Burnham Square a nickname — the Microbus!
I love the horse….I owned a couple of micro busses…..Burnham just keeps his head down plugging away…River Thames came out into him a couple times—he just moved aside and kept his head down–he keeps on trucking!
The 39 horse power ones? Top speed of 55 mph going down the hill. 😉
Luv it Ms Blacktype !!!
East Avenue ran his eyeballs out yesterday to get nailed on the money. I still think the best situation for him would be to sit just off of another horse and pounce in the stretch. But all the experts seem to feel that he is a need to lead type. That’s exactly what former jockey Joe Talamo said yesterday. Maybe. I just hope that I haven’t been seduced by his fantastic looks. One of the best-looking horses that I have ever seen.
Does East Avenue move forward after a race that he desperately needed or regress after such a hard try? I have no idea.
I think he has some big wins in his future. When or where? Again, no idea.
Nice to see the top two ranked even again. I see positives with both horses and even a few questions if I nit-pick.
Like Steve Haskin, I have to adjust to the new-age horses with so few starts. I don’t like it. I’m uncomfortable with it. But I believe that Tappan Street is legit.
Could Steve Haskin already have the Derby trifecta right there in the top three spots in his rankings? Maybe. In what order? Yet again, no idea.
East Avenue could not win at 1 1/8 as a speed horse. It is not likely that he can stretch it to 1 1/4 with a lot more competition coming from behind. Add Journalism, Sandman and Tiztastic to the mix and he is toast.
East Avenue and Rodriguez can ding dong each other for 8.5 f then it’s ‘good night, Vienna’ to both of them as the big guns start exploring down the stretch at Churchill Downs. I like Sandman better, and better, every day. Don’t underestimate Coal Battle either, these nifty little runners can weave through the traffic and he likes winning. Along with Journalism and Tiztastic as well as you mentioned above. Sovereignty doesn’t excite me too much but he should be there as well.
Agree, EA has no chance. He will fold up like cheap paint.
Tell you who will fold- Citizen Bull.
Trying to figure out what makes Joe Talamo an expert on East Avenue. We haven’t seen anything close to what he’s capable of.
I agree with that, if you meant East Avenue and not the jockey. Which is why he has a real chance to win the Derby. I think need to lead types need to lead, and he will have to win it from there.
Agreed Mr. Haskin. He’s capable of running well next month.
Per Kevin Kirsten on X, Admire Daytona arriving at CHD today, Luxor Cafe on April 23.
Thanks Steve for running out past the wire with the revised update. We’ve all seen the preps, analyzed the numbers and seen something that gave you that gut feeling. Handicapping is a thinkers game and the pitfall is overthinking! The fog of April now is the dread of news of the horses popping a fever, taking a bad step, hoof issues, losing weight and not making it in the gate. Which starts the process of confusion in handicapping. If I can make through that minefield I just have one question left to answer the week of the Derby. Who’s on the Blossom! We all know April showers bring May Flowers. Hopefully ROSES!
My top pick is AMERICAN PROMISE. I waited patiently for William Hill to add him to the list. Finally on March 3rd they added him at 300-1. I tried to wager $200.00 but got a message saying exceeds limit , so I changed my wager to $100.00 and they accepted.
They then dropped the odds to 200-1 and I wagered another $100.00. I had $200.00 to win on him in the Virginia Derby. I posted on this site a while back that AMERICAN PROMISE might be the sleeper for the KD , one person responded “Very doubtful”
If AMERICAN PROMISE wins the Kentucky Derby I will collect $50,200.00 from William Hill ! My ticket is posted on X — LifeIsGood@LifeIsGoodKent1
Good luck to ALL with future wagers! Looking forward to the post draw
As usual we had great 3 months of in depth looks from Steve Haskin
Thank you Steve
PS..I have other future wagers that made it to the starting gate with great odds but AMERICAN PROMISE is my top pick
Again, Good LUCK to All !!!
Although he’s not yet in the Top 12, I would bet that horse at those odd on the chance the Virginia Derby was legitimate. He has it in him and ill keep re-evaliating him. Of course I wouldn’t, or couldnt, bet that much
American Promise turned in his 3rd straight workout of 59 and change. Anyone remembers if Lukas has had a charge working like this?
Too fast.
Mike, you have to remember he is big horse. He has a great foundation he is keeping him sharp. Would love to see works like this for all “closers” in the race. I wouldn’t be surprised if Lukas sneak’s in a one mile work before the KD.
Noted Down.
You haven’t a shot for AP to deliver.
Mark, you’re going to be disappointed.
Here’s another derby stat on which to chew. Since Mine That Bird’s Late Pace Rating of 79 in the 2009 Sunland Derby, only Medina Spirit (an 86) and Mystik Dan (a 91) had a LPR in their final prep of less than 95.
I haven’t seen the numbers for the last three preps (SA, Wood, BG), but these are the best LPRs of the others:
Sovereignty 97
Final Gambit 112
Tappan Street 96
Good info.
I have no issue with any of the foreign runners who want to come over & contest the Derby. I love how international many of the global big races have gotten. I could pick at least 10 US-based runners in the field who I think should bow out & give Baeza their spot.
Regardless, wishing all good luck & safe trips.
Why should they bow out? They’ve earned their spot fair n square.
How about the 3 horses who get a free pass stay home, problem solved. Why shoukd japan etc get a win and you’re in spot? Its a handout….they should have to come here and run in the same preps as the rest of them…its gloalism and its not good….that would free up 3 spots….bottom line is Baeza didnt run well enough or he would be in…if he won the SA Anita Derby he would be in…
I’ll start with a partial agreement. I’m not a big supporter of the two foreign roads to the derby. There’s nothing to stop any foreign-raced horse from competing in the U.S. road and earning points for the derby. But I also believe that having 17 or 18 slots available for U.S.-raced horses is more than sufficient.
But “gloBalism”? C’mon, man! Churchill Downs created the Japan/Europe (+ UAE now) roads to increase interest in the Derby among foreign owners, breeders, and bettors. In other words…$$$$$$$$$$$.
David, if I had unlimited time, I would probably spend all day watching, lol
But I will try to watch both Guineas live….i want to have a horse to root for, so I need to start reading about it now, lol
Betsy, don’t forget the Irish 2,000 and 1,000 Guineas as well as the French versions the Poule d’Essai des Poulains and the Poule d’Essai des Pouliches.
A calendar and red ink is a good idea ha ha it gets overloaded with English, Irish, French and German important races during the time you are on holidays.
The Racing Post is easily accessible. There are usually betting shops on every corner. Ha ha
$100 Win/Place – Final Gambit
$5 Exacta Box – Final Gambit with Journalism & Sovereignty
Bold but beautiful.
Fortune favors the bold. 😉
Well my top 10 (or whatever the count) looks a little different than yours Steve. After all these races and there is definitely nothing wrong with yours as it is actually quiet strong. But I am just basing mine I what I saw with all these races. I probably will receive criticism but I say…..to each his/her own.
My #1 pick is: (BTW this is based on fast track come May 3rd)
AMERICAN PROMISE
He is a big powerful horse who I feel is coming into his own. In that Virginia Derby although that track was a highway for him to run those fractions and still have something in the tank was impressive.
# 2 is
JOURNALISM
Don’t think any explanation is needed here
# 3 is
TAPPEN STREET
Very impressed with his tactical speed just don’t want him too close to pace in the KD
# 4 is a tie between Burnham Square and Sovereignty.
Both are big closer (glad to see BS redeem himself after the FOY … still puzzled why he did not fire that day) Sovereignty also very good but was a little disappointed in his Fla Derby but expect a better run in CD and that long stretch. He needs a clean trip and his regular jockey back on him.
Asl far as the rest ( Grande, Rodriguez, Coal Battle,, Tiztastic, Chuck of Gold, Final Gambit ) you can put them in what order you want.
Steve I am with you about Final Gambit .. His race was very impressive at Tampa Bay but will it transfer over to the dirt? Should get a nice price on him
In the disappointed department ….. wanted to see INSTANT REPLAY in the Lexington Stakes.
In the ” Boy did I screw up department… Why did owners ” The West’s” lose faith in Hit Show??? Hope they got several millions for him if not I would be losing sleep (and be sickened) over that sale.
Have a Great Week !!!
What Final Gambit did at Turfway Park (Jeff Ruby) was really striking… seeing him training at Churchill will be instrumental to assess his chances on dirt. At any rate, Final Gambit is the ideal horse for the exotics…!
It does not seem like the Derby will have a contentious pace which is favorable point for American Promise but I am sure East Avenue will have a big say in the tempo domain.
I give you credit for putting American Promise no. 1.. He is the one horse who could be who he was before Virginia or who he was in Virginia. So you have a 50-50 shot of being right because that was an amazing breakout race. I had no idea what to do with him. See
Ignore that ‘by’
I lije your top three plus Grande
and Rodriguez..
If Luxor Cafe, Admire Daytona, and Heart of Honor are entered in the Derby there would be 17 slots for the American horses.
Owen Almighty, Flood Zone will very likely leave two slots free for Flying Mohawk (50 points), and Built (45 points).
I truly believe that letting Citizen Bull in the Derby would be a mistake … It is not Baffert’s move to send a horse with the looks of a filler… unless the trainer assumes that the probable lack of pace in the Derby would somehow benefit the champion … but the dilemma is that Citizen Bull would bother Rodriguez chances as rating is not an option for them.
The worst figuration in a last prep for a Baffert horse was Liaison who finished 6th nine lengths behind I’ll Have Another in the Santa Anita Derby…. Liaison was stopped in midstretch .. so Liaison had a valid excuse. But Citizen Bull does not have any …
D. Wayne Lukas has publicly admitted that entering Capote in the Derby after two lackluster performances (4th in the Gotham and in the Wood) was a big mistake…
Anyway, if Citizen Bull skips the Derby then Neoequos (40 points) got a spot. In that case Chancer McPatrick and John Hancock (both with 35 points) would be Also Eligible.
Neoequos would be only the third natural frontrunner joining Rodriguez and East Avenue.
Nelson,
In some respect I agree with you on Citizen Bull but then again I did not think Medina Spirit had a chance in the KD
I hear you DTS … However, you may remember that Medina Spirit was not 100% going to the Santa Anita Derby… he had missed training … don’t remember the issues but I am certain he lost one or two weeks of training in March …
Someone may remember Medina Spirit hindrances better than I did …
Besides, Medina Spirit, despite being short in form was valiant enough to finish second of Rock Your World in 1:49 flat … it was very different from a deflated Citizen Bull…
Citizen Bull should take it easy until the Preakness … I understand Baffert being eager for a triumphant comeback but he should be realistic this time and focus on letting Rodriguez run his race (at peak form)… of course … it is just the views of humble fan and the trainer knows his business better than anyone.
Totally agree with you Nelson as this to me has been a strange year for Baffert training wise and in placing his horses in races. In hindsight ( always 20/20 )CB should have run in the San Felipe but now Baffert has to play catch up with him. If he fails in the KD Baffert should make him world class sprinter.
… and (a very fresh) American Promise will also be a key pace setter in the Derby…
I’m pretty sure Heart isn’t running in the Derby – Preakness, and especially Belmont, are more likely
Nelson, like you I’ve been trying to puzzle out who’s in and who is out in the 20 horse field. Madaket Road has one more point (46) than Built, and Baffert said after the Wood he planned to bring him and Citizen Bull as well as Rodriguez. As for Baeza, he’ll need quite a few defections. Render Judgement picked up 10 points yesterday and stands at 39, right behind Neoequos and a couple points ahead of Baeza. Bryan Lynch has already said Owen Almighty is out, and you would think Flood Zone would be too since he ran in Dubai. My guess is that at best, only two of the Baffert trainees (at most) actually run.
Congrats to Burnham Square and East Ave.
Thanks Mr. Haskin for all you do. You are the best!
I am a bit top-heavy with my futures bets this year:
1. Journalism $125 bet; can win $6,374 (51-1). I made my initial futures wager on Journalism the day be broke his maiden, last November. I bet him at 100-1 prior to the race and at 75-1 after…
2. Rodriguez $219; $6,435 (29-1) I bet a lot on Rodriguez early, when he was in the 25-1 to 30-1 range; wish I waited and bet when 50-1 and up!
3. Coal Battle $125: $6,920 (55-1)
4. Burnham Square $42; $1,650 (40-1)
This year, my sister made her first solo futures bet: $50 on Journalism at 25-1; I offered her a pro-rated share of all my horses, but she liked Big J! My friend here in Vegas also has the same horses I have, just a bit more on each. I am hopeful all 3 of us will be pretty happy on the 3rd!!
Good luck everyone! Now, we wait and hope our horses stay healthy and don’t get any of the poor post positions…
Found one additional bet: $12 on Tappan St. at 50-1….wish I had bet a bit more…
Good luck Biggy. Your Journalism bet is looking good.
Thanks, Joe: You too!
Good luck, biggy, especially with 1., 2., or 3.
Thanks, Davids: Good luck to you ad well!
as!
REVISED SURPRISE RANKINGS SHOULD BE POSTED VERY SHORTLY AS WELL AS THORO-GRAPH NUMBERS FOR SA DERBY AND WOOD AND YOU DON’T WANT TO MISS THAT.
Steve, you spoil us. Thank you.
I’m exhausted. All these changes and it looks like no one knows about it. Everyone’s gone to bed. Not a bad idea. Lol
Steve: I’m about to go to bed, but I read every word. I plan to sleep on your revised list, and see how things look in the morning.
As Davids said, you spoil us. I really appreciate it!
Even better. Steve, they will wake up with something to read at the breakfast table. Get the juices flowing early. Ha ha
Thanks again, Steve. All the best.
Thanks for the updates, Steve. I was cheering so hard for East Avenue to hold on. Glad to see him run a good race again. I wonder if they will keep the blinkers on for the Derby. Also wonder who will get the mount. Would love to see Baeza win the Preakness for Puca’s triple crown. Not sure if that will be an option if he runs in the Derby. Things are getting exciting now!
Looking forward to it. Thanks!
Thank you so much for all you do. You really make the road to the Derby an incredibly enjoyable experience and it is much appreciated!!
Thank you very much.
Steve,
From what I saw on HRN ….. 7 horses would need to drop out before Baeza could get in the KD… Am I wrong?!?!?
Just proves what I’ve always known- John can train. Baeza most likely going to Preakness.
I am not one to be left out of giving ‘special thanks’ and deep gratitude for our True Champion of Love for horse racing, Steve. Thanks for giving us a place to share our thoughts and opinions. That EXTRA you put into your work doesn’t go unnoticed. You’re a real gem we are blessed to have.
That is very kind of you and .much appreciated. Thank you!
Couldn’t agree with you more KMI !!!
If—Journalism is doing well—ie”peaking”—and gets a clean trip, and I do not mind a wide journey—if he’s fit and ready and gets clear running room then they are running for 2nd!….
Agree Matthew.
For certain.
Matthew, that’s 3 big ‘ifs’ but perhaps the biggest IF is a good post position.
Happy I have a Futures ticket 2nd pool of both Grande and Jounalism. Excited
Good going…I THOUGHR I had a fiver on Rodriguez but I do not—I have my $10 on Journalism at 52-1….and $5 on Sandman and River Thames….my $5 on Filoso and First Resort didn’t pan out—but its nice to have the Journalism tenner, saves me a lot—and he’s going to leave there 3 1/2 to 1…..
Good luck on your KDFW bet on Journalism Matthew. I’m glad to have bet $40W on Journalism at 52-1 in KDFW2. Also did a $50 EX box Journalism/All others. The all others looks at this point to be 14 horses. Feeling I have a good chance to win that bet.
Joe;
That is an awesome exacta box with lots of horses available to complete when Journalism wins the Derby!!!
Thanks Biggy, that one really has me excited.
Youza!
Grande wasn’t in KDFW2 Mark. He was all others, the field. Journalism was 52-1 in KDFW2, thrilled I got in on that for a win bet and boxed Journalism with the field. IMO , Journalism and Grande could be the EX.
He was in one of the futures as I bet $50 on him, might have been the 3rd one.
Make that $10 at 50/1 on Grande.
Interesting that all seven horses in the Blue Grass finished within six lengths of each other. My first thought is that it may indicate that the Derby is a wide-open race.
Feel free to swat that idea down, LOL.
East Avenue was tons best….
Why was he the best? He had an easy lead with moderate fractions and lost. Burnham Square was 9.5 lengths back after a moderate half mile, went five wide around the far turn, and won. Both ran well, but the best was the horse that won.
Have to agree with you Tony D.
Totally agree, Burnham Square was the best horse in the race!
Tony, no matter what you believe, East Ave is a talented horse.
You must have misread my post.
Yes Matthew, at 8.5 furlongs. Ha ha
Looks like Rodriguez won’t be able to walk the dog with East Ave in there. I can envision Journalism in the second flight and rolling home to victory in the long CD stretch. I believe the closers will be closing and the finish will be very exciting.
J won’t be far back….
Joe., East Avenue will be used as a pacemaker for Sovereignty, Godolphin only needs 1 horse to win the Kentucky Derby. Those tactics will benefit a lot of other runners as well, Sandman and Tiztastic in particular.
Agree the closers you mentioned will be closing David’s. I do prefer Journalism vs. those closers you mentioned, because Journalism will likely be mid pack or closer, whereas So Sovereignty,Sandman, and Tiztastic will have to pass most of the field because they are deep closers. Journalism should get the jump on all 3.
Joe, I watched an interview with Mark Casse on the bloodhorse website and he stated that Sandman has quite a lot of speed, he expected Sandman to be mid pack not near the end.
Sandman often breaks poorly, which could really cost him in the Derby. Journalism. Always breaks sharp, which Is one of his best attributes.
Joe, have a listen to BH Monday: Casse on Sandman, Decoupling video on The Blood-House website.
I’m not giving up on River Thames, who finished a respectful 3rd, within a length of the winner. With 50 points, he should make the Derby starting gate.
With respect to Owen Almighty, it certainly appears that Brian Lynch was right, he is distance limited. I wouldn’t be surprised if he points to the Pat Day, and not the Derby.
Or the Preakness. A fresh horse is always a live threat in that race, and River Thames is very, very good Bill.
Thanks for the reply, Ms B
All I wanted is for River Thames to make the Derby starting gate, and it appears he has done just that. In the KD, anything can happen, and as you well know, there’s no such thing as a lock.
Good luck moving forward.
Well, that was an exciting finish at Keeneland. I’m sorry I had to miss the race live.
FYI, if you had googled Keenland Live Racing you could have watched the race live at no cost. I have watched live races there for some time now.
arlingtonfan and biglemmer, Keeneland now has live racing on YouTube, it’s actually slightly better than the website version.
its like i never left………
Vet, how are you?
That’s an imposter.
Ok.
Admiral Dennis stumbled out of the gate, and on top of that, Saez sustained an injury in the 2nd race on the card. Unfortunately, the Admiral had yet another bad luck race.
Congratulations to Burnham Square and his connections.
I wouldn’t call it a stumble; he broke poorly. It’s his thing, not bad luck.
Congratulations to all.
Pleased with results.
Do wish Admiral Dennis had placed higher though.
Should be an interesting Derby, perhaps not to everyone’s liking though.
I always appreciate each and every horse for their efforts and that of their teams.
Burnham Square now 9-1 3rd choice behind Journalism (+350) and Sandman (+425)
Sovereignty next at +1000
Burnham was 38-1 prior to BG
I had exacta boxed Burnham Square and Chancer—but when I saw East Avenue on the track I made it a three horse box—he’s the best looking horse of this crop! Burnham Square is not anywhere the looker, and he has an odd running style….but he keeps going! He will go off 12-1 in the Derby—if that—I love this guy….East Avenue will get play now—
Precisely what I did with a saver Exacta bet … more convinced after hearing what Brendan Walsh said about East Avenue really liking Keeneland …
The chances of Sovereignty improved with East Avenue likely providing a sharper pace in the Derby …
Yes, Matthew, I can see Rodriguez, Citizen Bull and East Avenue setting it up perfectly for a fun stretch run in the Kentucky Derby. No rain thanks.
Yes! No rain!!!
Keep your hooves crossed on no rain Davids.
Very volatile spring weather wise so far.
We just got two days of a soaking rain, about 3 inches total.
Cold snap on the way.
Let’s hope not, Lynda. Everything is happening on May3, the Kentucky Derby, the English 2,000 Guineas and you won’t believe it in Australia there is a general Federal Election on May 3 as well.
Nothing spectacular here, racing wise on May 3, which is good sometimes there is too much of a good thing. Ha ha
Doing my best to keep up with International racing.
Looking forward to the Royal Ascot too.
Hoping for nice weather in May.
There is an old saying “No hay before Mother’s Day”.
Ha ha I’ll have that ditty going over and over until May 3.
Burnham Square from last to first … East Avenue second, River Thames rated to be third and Admiral Dennis in fourth…
The time of 1:51.33 was not as exciting as the finish … but a good pace would be warranted in the Derby if East Avenue gets to run…
Yes, Nelson, the weakest prep.
Track was nit that fast—1:23 & change, for the graded stakes…1:24 & change for the allowance race….
Not the weakest prep, the track was tiring, I thought East Avenue showed something. I just read he switched back to his left lead at the 1/16th pole. He’s the fastest starter and ran the way he trained.
Thanks, Nelson, for giving the fourth place finisher. FanDuel never did (at least until we switched to the news at 6:30).
My pleasure Ms B… I knew that you get your instant updates here … LOL
Wondering how slow the track may be rated. They finished awfully slow. Not much to compare the race to except a MDN SPWT at 1 1/16th earlier on the card that had similar closing fractions if not a bit quicker for the winner. That wouldn’t bode well for those who move on.
Burnham Square went the final furlong in 13 sec. That’s a tick faster than the last prep for 4 of the past 5 Derby winners. If he doesn’t run well in the KD, it won’t be the result of a 13-sec final eighth in the BGS.
Fast early, slow late. Congrats to the connections of Burnham Square.
Hmm…. did this race make enough of an impression to knock off any of the top 4?
Track was not very fast—7 furlong stakes were both well over 1:23….
No but I could see him as high as 5. Somewhere between 5-7 for sure.
Late nomination fees for Derby received this afternoon for Admire Daytona and Heart of Honor per BH.
Thought the entry fee for Luxor Cafe was due yesterday by 3:00 PM Monday.
They probably have it already.
Hopefully
Steve, any news on whether Flood Zone will take part in the Kentucky Derby? Thanks, if you hear anything.
Lynda, we now have the big wait for the final field so often there are late withdrawals.
What happened to Todd’s hair? Did he ride his motorcycle over to the track today? Did he accidently stick his finger into a “live” electrical outlet?
Where did you see him? was it an interview in the live broadcasting?
WInd and too much styling Mousse. I went as Kramer one Halloween and a friend of mine worked on my hair to give it the Cosmo K look. She dyed it black, then used styling mousse and a blow dryer. Giddy Up! The K Man was ready to trick and treat.
That’s funny there. Nice one EK.
I paused the remote on a great shot of his “eletric socket” hair. Hilarious, and a great call-out, Tommy.
Funny
Luis Saez injured in race #2 at Keeneland. Taken off the track in a stretcher.
A replacement jockey will be needed for Admiral Dennis
Luis is being examined at UK Healthcare in stable condition. Pray that he will be okay.
Who will ride Admiral Dennis? Joel Rosario gets the mount.
Joel Rosario just won on Shangrala Road substituting Luis for Brad Cox…
Admiral Dennis will be running hard in the stretch under the strong hands of Joel Rosario…
Don’t know what happened, but they just made another change on the ride for Admiral Dennis. Joel Rosario is now changed to Manny Franco. Manny’s in the zone…. he’s getting a lot of attention this month.
Would have been happy to have Joel ride the Admiral, but Manny is red hot now.
Bill Dawson–I hope Luis Saez will be okay. He’s a wonderful jockey and a good person. I’ve been a fan since he first came to the US (Calder Race Course).
It is interesting that Journalism, well regarded from the beginning, stayed in California to race for the lowest purses of the 50 & 100 pointers. Not to mention taking the reduced points in both races because of the short 5-horse fields. Full disclosure: the Gotham also offered just a $300k purse. Why not ship out of town and run for some real dough when you have such a great horse? Those Arkansas horses didn’t turn out to be too much. The Rebel offered $1.25million and the Arkansas Derby $1.5million. That’s $2.75 million compared to the $800k that Journalism ran for. Did those 5-horse fields properly prepare Journalism to face 19 others in the Derby? I know that BB could always get his horses ready in short fields. But BB’s horses were always speedballs that went for the lead or very close to it. Not having to worry about getting through traffic. Journalism earned about a third of what he could have earned. Were they worried that Sandman might catch him? Not in this lifetime.
No offense. I might use Journalism with another horse in my Derby Day multi-race wagers. Though I might use another as my main play.
IMO Journalism will be able to fine in a 20 horse field. He took a lot of dirt on the inside and was boxed in and steadied before swinging in the clear to win the SA Derby. Journalism was impressive in a 10 horse field in his MSW win , where he also took dirt and had to negotiate thru traffic. He breaks well which could alleviate some of the traffic of the KY Derby Calvary charge. I will be singling my P5 with Journalism to spread deeper in the other 4 legs.
The End Game. To win the KD and secure lucrative breeding rights. Remember you don’t need to win every race just be at peak on the first Saturday in May. Same goes for the $$$ opportunities. None of the prep races get you coin like winning the KD does.
McCarthy doesn’t come across to me as a purse snatcher like Baffert. Horse was comfortable at home and presumably the right spacing of races. Like just about any horse behind the leaders, he’ll need to work out a trip in Kentucky. Fortunately for him, it looks like he can stay relatively close in a hot pace and may very well have dead aim coming down the stretch. He will be there if he runs his race but there’s certainly room for a few to improve at the right time.
TommyMcD– I’ve seen Mike McCarthy ship a horse from California to Gulfstream several times if he felt the horse would run better on the track at Gulfstream. Too many things can go wrong if you ship a horse.
Not to mention the possibility of bad weather which Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, and Florida all have had their share of.
Well, I have been awaiting the return of the Admiral for over a month to recoup losses and to restore my honor.
I was ridiculed or highlighting that given his poor start and the 17L of the 24L deficit he erased to finished 6th in the Rebel. He would have been the likely winner of the race at the juicy price of 18/1 if not for his mini disaster.
His four-work leading into the BG suggests he is fit and sitting on go. Will he leave the gates alertly? I was desperately hoping I would have seen blinker off for the BG. But alas Mr. Cox has retained the headgear which the colt has sported from its debut.
What part of if you do what you have aways done, you will get what you always got doesn’t trainer Cox does not understand? The colt has been breaking badly with blinkers. Why not remove the equipment and expand the colt’s angle of sight?
Despite my discomfort with the headgear, I have to make him a key part of every wager. His ML of 20/1 is ridiculous and too appealing to resist.
So, I will be using 3 entrants in my E & TRI – Admiral Dennis (20/1) Render Judgment (20/1) & East Avenue (3/1) Entrants do not know their odds. Sometimes one has to swing for the fences.
The only ridicule you receive on here is in your own mind . I think you like convincing yourself that you are.
Watching video of Coal Battle’s first work at CD gave me a wonderful sense of anticipation for the race to come. Ah…April is a good time to be a racing fan!
He possesses a choppy stride that isn’t suited for 10F whilst tooting 126lbs. But you never know!
What he toots is none of your business!
LOL, Tony, even if it was just a typo.
Counter Point,
I saw several horses on the track with a “choppy stride” this morning.
Thing is he settled down into a nice cruising stride and kicking up very little dirt.
Or did you miss that part?
Arlington fan, I just watched the video.
So pleased!
Seems to have settled in nicely at CHD and likes the track.
Yes, he looked like a happy guy out there.
Thank you, Steve, for making this my favorite time of the year! Your instincts are most enjoyable along with your data and expertise. Unlike the University of Houston, where you wonder how they made it that far with such an abysmal offense, these horses are full of star power which, as a whole, will be a very memorable Derby. What a matchup just between Sandman, Journalism, Grande, Tappan Street and American Promise (I think). I hope Rodriguez puts in an Authentic type of performance. On the first turn, I could tell Martin Garcia was screwing the pooch on Barnes. Should’ve just let him run and see where the chips fall. I could see a Curlin exacta this year. Will Baffert send Citizen Bull? Why let him get so heavy going into such an important race?
Why the exclusion of the likely winner Sovereignty?
It was oversight on my part but I don’t have him as winning KD.
Just saw that Journalism earned a 108 Brisnet figure, while Rodriguez got a 105, up from 104 and 91, respectively. An improvement of 14 points may signal a bounce.
Baeza is a paragon of progression in his 4-race career. (The 107 is estimated)
79>88>98>107
9 pts, 10 pt’s, 9 pts. That is consistency
NUMBERS, NMUMBER!
Whay have so many convinced that they are meaningful?
For religion to be relevant and meaningful it requires believers. The fact that no one has returned from their demise to tell the tale of their meeting with the Celestial Being pre-demise worship promises.
Fierceness was the leader in the speed figure category. The believers in speed figures couldn’t see any other opponents that was not close to his number, having a chance to defeat him.
The history of the barn to which he was connected, a more pertinent bit of information was ignored.
EDIT.
Why have so many been convinced that they are meaningful?
What is it that you think I wrote?
With apologies to Steve, I know this comment is not about the KD, but it could involve a race on K Oaks Friday-the one mile Alysheba at Churchill. This is a race that may have Nysos returning to the races.
This ‘lightning in a bottle’ racehorse has been working up to a return and just a couple of days ago blew past and drew away from Speed Boat Beach (1:11.1) at Santa Anita.
Will keep an eye on this return.
Back to the Blue Grass. Looking to give Chancer McPatrick Chad Brown’s chance in the Derby. He’s still looking for that first KD win.
No apologies necessary. This is an open forum.
Thanks John, I’ve been waiting on the return of both those horses. A boost for the Oaks card if all goes well.
Wow, we are so lucky to have Steve Haskin providing us this great platform. Your passion and knowledge of this sport are second to none.
Sometime about 6 years ago, I discovered your expertise on BH. Ever since then, my enjoyment of the sport has increased beyond comprehension. You and all of the commentators solidify this sport as one of the best
Thanks again to everyone and let’s not overlook what we have today. Too many people only miss things when they’re gone.
My first social post ever!
Your judgement serves you well Bob. As someone who has been following Steve’s insight before it was available on the internet, I could not agree with you more on your assessment. If the hay in every barn could talk how much more we would know. Well that’s not going to happen but as long as we have Steve Haskin backing up his hydraulic truck and dumping his volumes of insight and information about these 3 year old superstars we will all be that much smarter and more enthused about this great sport. Nice first social post and welcome to the herd of Haskin. New guy has to muck the stalls but I’m sure you know that, right?
Now that’s what I call a welcome. Lol
Thank you so much Bob. We are honored you debuted here. You are welcome anytime. Your closing line is so true. My wife’s sister’s name is Heile her late husband Ken is from Cincinnati.
Welcome to the Haskin/Secretariat cyber community Bob Heile.
Yor infectious optimism and passion is the type of attitude the sports need.
Your first social post has been a resounding hit… keep them coming!
OK! I just got in.
In a post close to the 2024 KD I specified that Fierceness was a major bet against. That post was deleted. What’s so wrong with a provocative prediction? It had absolutely no impact on the fans of the colt. Has it ever been considered that I might just be missing a few screws. Fierceness finished 15th by 25L. My post should have restored.
I am now predicting that Journalism will not hit the board in the KD. The knowledgeable and polite folks that support this space will invariably ask. What part of joint highest Beyer and lowest TG number is beyond your capacity to understand?
In anticipation of said question I prepared a question for my answer. Did Fierceness finish off the board with the identical credentials? That would be yes.
Has there been any focus on the entrants that emerged as Journalism’s best opponents in his last two wins?
Barnes’s resume reflected 2 starts with none being beyond 7F. His late race decline and inability to find extra indicated he is not effective at the distance at this phase of his career.
Baeza who finished 9 of 11 on debut and beaten 7L in his 2nd start had only 3 starts. He broke his maiden in modest 1:37 plus.
When Journalism met Barnes in the San Felipe, he was making his 4th start and 2nd over 8 1/2F He broke his maiden over 8F compared to the 5 1 /2F over which Barnes broke his maiden. When me met Baeza he was making his 5th and 3rd over 8 1/2F. Baeza had never made a start beyond 8F
Journalism was a more seasoned entrant at 8 1/2F than both Barnes and Baeza. That gave him a major advantage edge over both over the extended distance of 9F. Whom will he meet in the KD?
Sovereignty – 5 starts: 1 over 8F; two over 8 1/2 & one over 9F (raced in 3 states)
Sandman – 8 starts: two over 8f & 3 over 81/2 & 1 over 9F (raced in 3 states)
Tiztastic – 8 starts; 1 or 8f; 4 over 81/2F & 1 over 9 1/2F (raced in 4 states)
Coal Battle – 8 starts: 3ovr 8f ;2 over 8 1/2F & 1 over 9F (raced in 4 states)
American Promise – 9 starts; 2 over 8F; 4 over 8 1/2F & 2 over 9F
Final Gambit – 4 starts; 3 over 8F & 1 over F
The above have the points to make the cut. There are other talented horses in the BG with good credentials that are likely to get in.
Journalism defeated the foundation less Barned by 1 1/4L in the SF. He defeated the last out MSW winner Baeza by 3/4L. In the KD he will be facing more talented opponents who possess more foundation, have shipped to several stated to race and are classy deep closers with more explosive finishing speed.
Given the above. Journalism is going to be false favorite in the KD and will finish off the board.
It’s very easy to make a case against a horse. You are hyper focused on Journalism and you’ve stated multiple times as to why he will not win the KD. That’s the easy part.
Can you make a strong case on who’s going to win? You have a 5% chance of getting it correct.
And what’s worse is he will gloat about his negative posts after the race, not realizing that he didn’t have the winner, just one or two of the 19 others who lost. A true Naysayer if there ever was one. Don’t waste your time here Zany, you are to smart to go down his pointless rabbit holes drivel.
After two straight days of the same comment following others saying the same thing his point is made and he has used up his allotment of anti journalism Comments. Future ones will be deleted. I gave him a long rope and he wouldnt stop so he needs to find another horse ro knock….Once!
Zany the only thing you need to know about this guy (who lied writing he was not Coldfacts) is that he posted back in 2015 that he would never post again if American Pharoah won the Belmont Stakes.
The same tune he is using for Journalism now…
And the most shocking attitude is that he always plays being a victim when is an obssesive contrarian. He is now waiting for some compassive soul here to write that we are “ganging up against” this “poor guy”.
It only takes someone liking a horse to trigger his tirade.
This convoluted dark circle is getting very tiring and wasteful.
The sad part is he does not seem to have anything else to do …
Everyone has her/his own bizarre ways to get attention … I guess
Barry Irwin said it best when he addressed the “victim card” played by CF: “Martyrdom is so rare in America these days.” Took me weeks to stop laughing at that one.
Boy you nailed that!
Nelson, I’ve been reading his schtick for over a dozen years…. here and on BH, using a few nom de guerre.
My first instinct was to read his posts and move on. Then, another antagonizing poster (pro vet) came along and the verbal jabs between them became a daily occurrence. I made the mistake of sticking up for “Coldfacts” once. It was too late when I realized that was a mistake.
Once in while people will disagree about a horse’s capabilities. Not so with him. His OCD is off the charts.
Most posters here are very knowledgeable handicappers. However, this is a very humbling game.
Easy to toss a horse from a particular race, especially the KD. Much harder to single the winner. I am waiting for his KD pick….not holding my breath for too long.
Journalism is the deserving FAV for the KY Derby by his performance in his last 3 stakes wins. I hope you have the class to admit you were wrong after the KY Derby when Journalism hits the board , and quite possibly wins the KY Derby.
I think most observers would see that Journalism has proven himself a racehorse on several occasions, despite the circumstances, while at the same point last year Fierceness clearly had not shown the ability to perform in adverse circumstances.
It’s HARD to identify the Derby WINNER—out of 20 entrants…..it’s EASY–to puck out a horse to LOSE—out of 20 entrants…..much higher percentage that you will be correct—
Yes Matthew … he has received the very same message zillion of times … but he feels good about this “process of elimination”… I am not even interested in what he would he say if Journalism wins… I decided to avoid toxic material in my life.
I particularly liked your comments on Baeza. He’s a favorite of mine for many reasons, and I hope he gets into the Derby because he belongs there. But the Preakness is the one I most want him to win to give his mother that amazing triple. It’s also worth noting that the Preakness is one of the few major races that his namesake never won, and it would be nice if he could win it for him, too.
It seems to me, the Ortiz boys (Irad-River Thames; Jose-Owen Almighty) could cook up something right in the family.
Opening half in :49 4/5?
It’s possible.
Stone cold exacta!
The first day of racing (Yesterday) at Keeneland on a sloppy sealed track showed a speed bias with 4 races (at 9F, 8F, and 2 at 1 1/16 mile) won wire to wire. There 4 winners that ran a close 2nd and 3rd the first half (5.5F, two at 7F, and one at 1 1/16 mile) and the last race at 1 1/8 mile was won by a mid-pack runner when Deterministic tried to wire the field but was overpowered by the late runner Money Supply.
I believe the Blue Grass will be unfolding like this 1 1/8 mile last race yesterday.
Today the track went from good to fast after the 5th race. There were 2 wire to wire winners, 3 winners following the leader from 2nd and 3rd, one mid-pack winner, and only one winner at 7 furlongs.
I am dismissing the 4.5 F races for 2-year-olds…
The track will most likely be playing fast tomorrow. So, I am plotting the following $18-Trifecta:
3-Burnham Square/6-Chancer McPatrick/7-Admiral Dennis
3-Burnham Square/6-Chancer McPatrick/7-Admiral Dennis/1-River Thames
3-Burnham Square/6-Chancer McPatrick/7-Admiral Dennis/1-River Thames
Good luck and safe trips for every one,
Hi Nelson
I’ll key River Thames and Owen Almighty on top, in the first two slots, with ALL underneath, in a $1.00 superfecta p/w.
That is: 1,4/ 1,4/ 2,3,5,6,7/ 2,3,5,6,7.
I’ll flip that over, and play 2,3,5,6,7/ 1,4/ 1,4/ 2,3,5,6,7
In addition, I’ll play a straight $50.00 exacta, using River Thames on top of Owen Almighty.
Good coverage Bill in your Super…
I see that our main assumptions are different. You are expecting the speed to prevail whereas I am betting on the stalkers and closers in a very cheap bet …
The Ortiz brothers could be arranging a kind of armistice and dictate a mutually convenient pace for your two key horses … however, Luan Machado may have a more agressive tactic with East Avenue for the first fligth…
I thought that Owen Almighty being already in the Derby won’t be exerting himself unnecesarily in a sword fight with the other two speedsters…
Anyway, at least we both are relying on Admiral Dennis to spice up the pay outs…
I was trying to make sense of American Promise also, then I watched this YouTube video:
https://www.youtube.com/ watch?v=INEldzC85s0&t=18s
It has a very good prerace look at the participants in the Virginia Derby. It left me impressed by American Promise. He just looks like a special horse to me, at least that was my feeling after watching this video. It’s about 17.5 minutes long and it left me wishing we got more videos like this one. I really like the way it showed all the participants.
I couldn’t find this video but I did find good info on his pedigree. But I just can’t not look at his OP and FG performances and get on board. Colonial downs track record means nothing. It was a super fast track that day and there was only one race run by dirt horses on this track to compare it too, so that is why I hesitate to be impressed and it was not a two turn race. Out of a shoot with one turn. What about this video made you consider this colt?
I think I found it. Don’t type in watch, start with ?v= and you can find it. The walk over and the paddock scene?
Yes, that is the video. Can’t say I have ever seen a better video that shows the horses up close and personal. I think I might be a little biased by the fact he is by Justify, one of my all-time favorites, but he does look powerful to me, an all-business type of horse.
He’s a looker that’s for sure and I can’t say that if he rose to his pedigree on May 3rd that I would be to surprised. There’s always a story behind every race and every effort these horses make. It could be that he woke up that day put it all together, and he had no idea he was running against the b team at a b track. Horses don’t read the TPS reports with the cover sheets.
I wish that all of the final preps were as deep in quality runners as the BG Stakes. Though I have big-priced future wagers on two other entrants, I prefer Chancer McPatrick tomorrow. His trainer has won the BGS in 3 of the past 7 runnings, including Sierra Leone last year. This is Chancer’s second race after a 4-month layoff. The first race after the layoff was a good second in an even effort at TB to Owen Almighty, whose previous race was 4 weeks before.
Chancer is by McKinzie and Tiztastic is by Tiz the Law, 2nd and 3rd Freshman sires last year. (by a hair) 2025 should be an interesting year in regards to progeny of these two. Note that Vekoma is not in the mix. Also add Beaza to the McKinzie mix.
The DRF is reporting Ferocious, who had complications from a ligament tear earlier this year, developed laminitis and has been euthanized.
Just. Horrible. News.
Yes, it is horrible. He was one of the four two-year-olds who impressed me last year, and I hoped for big things from him as a three-year-old. Now we’ll never know. It’s so sad.
Feel really sorry for the horse.
As a member of the big group of Journalism fans I am glad to see him on the right track to attempt being the first Derby favorite to win it since Justify 7 years ago.
If you watch the replays of all his 5 starts you will agree that one Journalism strengths is being quick leaving the starting gate. He was even faster than Citizen Bull the first 100 yards of the Santa Anita Derby; then the son of Curlin was never farther than 2 lengths behind the champ and rabbit Westwood until Barnes slammed him three times coming to the last turn… What Journalism did after that serious hindrance was mind blowing indeed !
Just take note of Journalism split times in the Santa Anita Derby to confirm his tactical speed:
22 2/5, 47 1/5, 1: 11 4/5, 1:37 1/5, 1;49 2/5
Looking at Journalism times for his final one ant two furlongs of all his wins (12 2/5, 12 3/5, 6 2/5, 6 flat, and 12 1/5 last Saturday) you may agree that any (3-y-o ) frontrunner will have a very hard time trying to fend off his final rally.
Journalism tractability and his usual 37 mile per hour final speed make him a formidable foe in the Kentucky Derby.
I just hope Journalism remains healthy, that flying for the first time, and the defeaning Derby crowd will not deter his early flow and mighty finishing kick.
The sport needs a hero …!
Good points Nelson! Yes,indeed racing needs a hero and a horse racing more than six times,to call it a career- transferring to the breeding shed.
Good points Nelson. Journalism breaks like a rocket 🚀 which will serve him good in the KY Derby. I can envision Journalism breaking strong and Rispoli getting him good position into the first turn not getting hung wide. Journalism will likely be no worse than 8th after the first quarter where he can settle into a rythmn before unleashing his relentless move to get into a position to wear the roses 🌹.
Thanks for your replies Mike and Joe … I have not been that excited about a Derby hopeful since American Pharoah…
Agree with all you said, Nelson. Those are interesting split times for Journalism. He’s a beast. Maybe he’ll start a run of winning favorites like we saw from 2013 through 2018. Ha!
Yes Tony … favorites winning the Derby would mean that they have been consistent and reliable the first quarter of the year… from there on he must be something special to keep on top of the class…
The good thing is that even with the favorite winning there is a good chance that the exotics will pay good money …
You may remember that the $1-Superfecta in 2007 with Street Sense, Hard Spun and Curlin, with an 28/1 in 4th paid $14,500.
And Big Brown Superfecta yielded $29K, $28K for Orb, the one for Smarty Jones paid out $20,5K, $75.9K for Always Dreaming Superfecta, Justify/Good Magic yielded $19.6K…
you get the idea…
Those are some amazing payouts, Nelson. May I also add the prospect of cashing big future wagers on post-time favorites….if one has the foresight. I know that several folks here bet Big J earlier than I did and are looking at a huge pay day. But at least I got him before the San Felipe at 19-1. (I also have Sovereignty, Burnham Square, Tappan Street, and River Thames. I won’t mention a few that now have no chance or little chance. Yes, I went CRAZY this year!
Good luck Tony … your horses got very fast speed figures …
Hi Steve
Thank you for providing another thought-provoking article on your top prospects.
I’ve been very high on River Thames since his maiden win back in January. Currently, he’s short on points, and needs a 1st or 2nd place finish in the Blue Grass.
The fact that Irad Ortiz Jr. jumped off of Owen Almighty, and will ride River Thames, speaks volumes, IMO. I expect the Ortiz brothers to finish in the exacta, which they have been known to do quite often in various past races. I’ve got $50.00 win wagers on River Thames, at 49-1, and Owen Almighty, at 48-1 in Derby Futures Pool 6.
BTW, it was good to see Final Gambit ranked at #8. I’ve got a $50.00 win wager on him at 30-1.
My most conservative wager in Pool 6, I boxed Sovereignty, at 9-1 and Journalism, at 5-1 in a $50.00 exacta wager.
Bottom line, nothing ventured, nothing gained.
I would t make anything out of the jockey switch. No way Irad Ortiz is going to ride for Brian Lynch, who didn’t even want to run in the Derby, over Todd Pletcher.
You make a good point, Steve.
Is Admiral Dennis sitting on a big race tomorrow? 2nd generation Tapit.
He is being overlooked….with better racing luck, he could upset this field.
Tall order but I hope he is
I know I’m looking at this through rose colored glasses, many ways ha ha, but there appears like a lot of speed in the Blue Grass to give Admiral Dennis a good chance.
In the 3 races Admiral Dennis has lost he had terrible starts … being the Rebel the most dramatic one… he was 24 lengths behind Madaket Road the first quarter !
He passed 7 horses in the stretch and finished only 5 lengths behind Sandman, 3 lengths behind Publisher, and a meage half lengths behind Tiztastic …
After what those 3 have done afterwards, I would say that this performance makes him a big player tomorrow specially if he is able to break smartly under the energetic Luis Saez… I trust Brad Cox will continue his Stakes feats this time with the son of Constitution.
Nelson, you make very good points regarding Admiral Dennis. I’m going to use him in my exactas and trifectas today. I’ll include Chancer McPatrick, Burnham Square and River Thames.
The Admiral is due for some good luck and I believe the Blue Grass will be his breakthrough. Cha ching!
Thanks Dewey… we got the very same horses in the Blue Grass…
Admiral Dennis female family is really outstanding. Union Rags, Candy Ride, Seeking the Gold, and Deputy Minister; and the 5×5 of Nijinsky II and to the exceptional broodmare Weekend Surprise made me optimistic about Admiral Dennis potential…
Hopefully Admiral Dennis gets into the Trifecta … we will know by the first quarter if he is up to the task this afternoon…
I just want to remind everyone that these Rankings are temporary and a number of comments also will be updated with additions.. The order of the Rankings also will have a number of changes not only based on the Blue Grass but further evaluation from video and speed figures and gut feeling., as this will be THE definitive Rankings assuming all the horses stay healthy. If there is nothing new to report one week I may break it up with a column, likely a historic Derby related column with some commentary. But you still have the same comments section to talk about the Derby or anything you wish. So once again, you might want to re-read the comments wednesday because there will be new thoughts and conclusions.
Steve, a backstory or two would be appreciated regarding some of the top contenders. I recall you wrote about Journalism and Sovereignty.
Yes and I want to promote that even more now so I am going to do something that you will read about in the new intro on Wednesday.
Hey everyone it’s our birthday this week ! We get 2 rankings in one week. Now I have to learn to read . Thank you Steve and Mother Nature
Rodriguez is a serious threat, developing fast, and just won fast. Beautiful, grand looking horse.
Rodriguez was impressive. However, everyone knows he can’t rate.
Mike, please don’t place doubts into peoples minds.
I’m hoping Rodriguez and Citizen Bull take a lot of money……After all, the former just won impressively (101 Beyer), and the latter is last year’s champion 2 year old.
Good comment Zany!
I know that it’s only 3 days, but does three days of short rest have any effect on Derby horse/horses coming out of the BlueGrass? The postponement couldn’t have been helped. But, in my mind, any late blip is a big deal this late in the game.
They took the blinkers off of Rodriguez for the Wood and he behaved much better. But the Derby is an entirely different ballgame. There were few people outside watching the Wood Memorial. We know that there will be a screaming mob, some fueled by their favorite drink concoctions, on both the inside and outside of the track at Churchill. It will be a new experience for all of the Derby horses, but Rodriguez does have a history of acting up before the race. He looked like a million bucks on the track Saturday. Hoping for the best and a fairly run Derby.
The Blue Grass used to be run 9 days before the Derby. I dont think 25 days will hurt them.
Dear Steve, you are just amazing. You actually had to write an additional Derby Guide prior to the Blue Grass.
Regardless of how Grande runs in the Kentucky Derby, I would love to see him race on grass. His dam’s family are winners on grass; wouldn’t be terrific if Mike Repole and Todd Pletcher were able to take him to Royal Ascot.
He’s such an old soul and so mature for a young horse.
Thanks for your expert analysis of all of the contenders.
Thank you Terri. I think he will excel on any kind of track. Its great to see ‘ol War Front back in a pedigree.
Todd has nice grass colt in AP Kid who is out of a War Front mare
Steve: It reminds me of the effort to get Zenyatta to deliver a health War Front foal.
“that is one flower that only needs to bloom on the first Saturday in May”- Exactly!!!
I think that Sovereignty does have a fast turn of foot. He looks like he gets on them quick when he makes his move. I don’t fault him for not passing the very good Tappan Street. Manny Franco probably had explicit orders to make a good run without getting to the bottom of the horse in the Florida Derby.
While I understand and agree with Steve Haskin about giving Journalism a slight edge after his very fine win at Arcadia on Saturday, I think Mr. Haskin had it right when he had the top two in a deadheat. I think one of them wins the Derby. But it’s the Derby, and it could come down to which horse gets the best trip. Advantage Journalism, who can lay closer to the pace.
Post positions will be important. You can be certain about your horse and have him draw the rail, the #20 post, or worst of all, the #17 post(0 for forever). What are you going to do then? My advice: stick with your horse no matter what post he draws. You’ll be haunted for the rest of your life if he wins without you. Besides, the #1 has to win again one of these days and the #17 is WAY overdue.
One thing: Sovereignty will be at least twice the price of Journalism. Which is attractive to me. 5-1 /5-2, 6-1/3-1, 8-1/4-1. I will definitely have a $20 exacta box on those two. Hoping that Steve Haskin can suggest a couple of longshots to put in my trifecta. I have a feeling that Chunk of Gold could be a good price with a good shot to hit the board. Overlooked because of his cheap pricetag($2,500). I need 2 more longshots to throw in with those three. Getting excited.
Steve,
Thanks for the your updated ranking here. My top 10 is a little different than yours but like you said in the coming weeks things are likely to change.
My #1 is Journalism, but I would be flipping 2 and 3 as I think Tappen Street is a little bit more tactical then Sovereignty . I wouldn’t have ranked Rodriguez as high as you did as I feel he got away with moderate fractions in the beginning of the race and not too much pressure throughout the race. I would have ranked Tiztastic and Chunk of Gold in front of him. As always enjoy your column. Now we just have to wait for Bluegrass tomorrow and Lexington this weekend.
DTS, I agree with you and would have put Tiztastic #5 and Chunk of Gold #6. Not sure that Rodriquez has a fast 1 1/4 in him. But then, the KD with a field of 20 will be a bit of luck unless you are wire to wire. Would be fun to see Journalism, Sandman, and Tiztastic fight it out at the wire.
The Wood Memorial was a faster race, they didn’t slow down in the 4th quarter like the SA Derby did.
I see a tie breaker has been found. But is the right horse ranked #1?
From the perspective of the current trend the answer has to be no. See Below –
2024- Mystik Dan – 3rd in AK Derby
2023 -Mage -2nd FL Derby
2022 – Rich Strike – 3rd Jeff Ruby
2021 – Medina Spirit – 2nd SA derby
2021 – Mandloun 6h in LA derby
Last out effort –
Steve has alluded that Sovereignty was defeated by an opponent with only 2 previous
starts. Was Tappan Street a less formidable opponent because of two starts?
Certainly not! The colt won on debut which neither Sovereignty nor Journalism did. He was runner up in is graded stakes debut. Sovereignty defeated the colt the bested him in the Holy Bull. Sovereignty lost his regular rider and that cannot be dismissed.
Journalism defeated a last out MSW winner whilst fully extended. He never passed the runner up in the gallop out. This suggests the requirement to be hard ridden to get on terms with leaders, significantly depletes his energy resource. There can be no doubt that Tappan Street entered the FL Derby with better credentials than Baeza entered the SA Derby.
Class –
As specified before. As a maiden Sovereignty defeated Sandman and Tiztastic by 5L under hand ride without taking. Both colts were winner at the time. Both have won 100-points KD preps. No other likely KD starter has such a significant line item on their resume.
A maiden that wins a graded stake with such consume ease in no ordinary horse. He will return to the scene of his most impressive win bigger, stronger and fitter.
Trainer-
County House finished 3rd in AK Derby which was his final KD prep. he nas3 KD preps in a short window to ensure he secured the requisite points/earning to make the cut. He had the least rest between starts compared to the top entrants. He finishes 2nd at 65/1 to a horse running with powerful aids and was elevated to first with his DQ for a meaningful infraction.
The Lookin At Lucky colt had only a MSW victory in the win column. He never came close to winning any of the KD peps he contested.
If Bill Mott was capable of preparing a colt with a strenuous and crammed KD Pep schedule with less talent than Sovereignty to finish 2nd in KD. One can only imagine what is he capable of doing with the far superior in talent Sovereignty on full rest?
Mott trained and conditioned Cody’s Wish and Elite to back-to-back BC Mile & BC Sprit victories. In combination the two-horse won 17 of their last 19 starts. There is no ne to provide a detailed reminder of what he did with the incomparable Cigar.
The Current trend associated with the last 5 KD winners; Sovereignty’s Street Sense performance CD; The performance of two 100 points Prep winners he defeated handily and respect for trainer Bill Mott, should have made Sovereignty the #1 ranked horse.
EDIT
without taking a deep beath.
Cosumate ease
No offense…. but you just posted a several hundred word salad to tell us you don’t agree with Steve about Journalism ranked #1 and to win the KD.
You could have saved yourself all the trouble by just posting who you actually like to win the KD.
He made some good points and gave reasons for preferring Sovereignty. Regardless of what he wrote, you’re not the editor on here.
Neither are you!!
Zany, some horses I really like. The manner in which Journalism performed Saturday indicates he’s man among boys.
You tried to edit his “word salad” post and I called you on it.
Look in the mirror Mr. Hypocrite.
I will never forget that day when Country House won the derby due to the disqualification of Maximum Security. Country House was my mudder, so when it started to rain hard 15 or 20 minutes before the race, I placed a win wager on him. Of course, his pedigree also played a big part in my decision. I got lucky that day.
I’m hoping Admiral Dennis will beat the longshot odds and run his race tomorrow, like he did in his maiden win. He is a beautifully bred horse; he should relish the longer distance. If he doesn’t make the cut, then I hope to see him in the Belmont.
As always appreciate this .
Rodriguez really has me scratching my head.
May foal coming from what has been recently the weakest of the derby trails.
Smith on the lead is still a formidable jockey.
Baffert with Smith at double digit odds as possibly the only speed.
Hmmmm
If Journalism’s race was a movie and I was Roger Ebert I would definitely give him two thumbs up.
Citizen Bull’s connections still have confidence in the colt and that BB will have him cranked for the Derby. Just cannot put faith in that assessment. Watched replay 3 times. He tried to regain the lead but too fatigued, taking short strides.
BB can work magic of course but may have run out of time for CB.
Coal Battle arrived at CHD this morning. He looks fabulous. Took a jog around the track in the mud. He might not win the Derby but he has certainly won a lot of hearts including mine.
Thank you Steve as always for such a thorough analysis on the horses. Looking forward to the DD after the BGS.
I am a big fan of Coal Battle. His pedigree suggests he is a miler, but it is within the realms of possibility that he may outrun his pedigree.
Where would the photo or video of Coal Battle be? Thanks.
DP,
On X.
@Churchill Downs
@HorseRacingKK
@BH_SCollins
I understand that the rankings are “temporary,” but the analysis is anything but. Steve’s top 5 are the most solid contenders, pending the performances of the BGS runners. My head was swimming reading the first section of KOTD. LOL
I put Publisher up there, too, with the top 5. But I don’t know what to make of the big rallies by him and Sandman. They were far back from that crazy fast speed duel, but didn’t finish particularly fast despite appearances. Their E1 and E2 numbers were high, and the late pace numbers were low. Steve, you are well versed in these Brisnet pace ratings. What do you make of them?
I dont see them very often but I do like the pace figures as I’m sure you can tell.
Steve your top three look formidable….
I wish my top 10 did
Ferocious passed away with laminitis according to X.
RIP
Oh no …oh damn, that stupid, ugly disease
Poor baby, sigh
Heard from the owner earlier. Sick over it.
I loved his sire, Flatter; he was such a love bug and a gentle soul as a stallion. If he was anything like his sire, he must have been so loved. It’s ironic and sad that he and his great grandsire, Secretariat, both died of laminitis.
Heartbroken for the connections. Saw it earlier this morning.
The torn muscle injury progressed into cellulitis, then laminitis.
So tragic.
Terri, just too much to bear. Cellulitis is a very painful condition then the laminitis.
This is just sickening. I hate that laminitis it has taken away so many of our stars at too young of an age. Even our great Secretariat succumbed to it. I wish they can perfect amputation in horses. Condolences to the connections on this terrible loss.
That’s horrible news. Very sorry to hear that.
There never seems to be a week without one tragedy or another in racing. Ferocious was such a magnificent colt with everything to look forward to in the future. Too sad.
So sad ! He should have lived a long life
Oh man, poor Ferocious. This is devastating news. He was beautiful and talented, and I’m sure the connections are crushed.
Hi Steve – Journalism sure showed his talent in the SA Derby. He proved he can handle traffic and seal the deal. I can see a Journalism/Tappan street 1-2 finish as very possible. I hope this happens because I would win my KDFW win bet on Journalism and since TS was a field horse from KDFW2, I would win the EX also. I will take a longer look at Grande as a horse who could be dangerous.
Thanks for the commentary on Grande, that’s a good ranking for him. He may not be fast enough, but he has the biggest stride out there and keeps loping along. He was dropped too far back for one who was just off the pace previously, but he did show he could move up and be tractable. I expect him to get a top ranked jockey for the Derby, which hopefully he’ll get in with 50 points.
I’m more sure of his ability to get the Derby distance than most, if a few that seem able to start tiring at 9 f., he could win.
Nelson and David – very interesting update on Heart!
Someone on another board heard Jamie on a podcast (Nick Luck), & he said that H is back in England now. They’ll see how he came out of the race before deciding on Derby…they haven’t ruled out Preakness or Belmont (he’ll be nominated to TC this week)
If he hasn’t bounced back from Dubai sufficiently, he’ll get the Summer off and target the Saudi and Dubai Cups 2026
Wow! He’s thrived on his hard schedule, so hopefully he continues to do so – I’d give anything to see him in the States
If he hasn’t bounced back great, then giving him time off if the right thing to do
Fascinating !
I believe he’s definitely Derby caliber. But That was a hard race and he had to be tired to drift out as- badly as he did nearing the wire. Cost him the race.
Steve, either that or he’s still green? But he’s never done that before, so you could be right, although he still rallied between horses to make that last lunge….he’s a tough, talented colt
I don’t think he’ll go to KY even if he bounces back well – it’s asking a lot. Preakness makes more sense, Belmont even better
One theory is that he was fine with horses inside and outside, but as soon as the outside horse dropped back it suddenly left him exposed on the outside and he drifted to the open space.
Oh, that could be. He’s still got maturing to do – he just hasn’t completely figured out the game.
Steve, Heart of Honor has raced 5 times in 4 months at Meydan- time for a break is warranted.
I agree . He was a tired horse.
And factor in the heat.
Thanks for the update Betsy… I always saw Sandman with Belmont Stakes written on his forehead but now I believe Heart of Honor will be a big player if he is able to come to New York on June 7…
The son of A.P. Honor looked really good in the UAE Derby … he’s developed into a great specimen and I believe the trainer would greatly benefit from his experience with Toast of New York in America…
They would add excitement to the Triple Crown for sure !
But Heart will need a Jockey who is adept at Saratoga … a Joel Rosario type of Jockey…!
If he comes, I fear they’d still use Saffie
You’re welcome, Nelson !
I think he’d be incredibly intriguing if he came over, especially for the Belmont… !
Here’s hoping he continues to thrive -he seems to be a hardy colt
Betsy, Heart of Honor has raced 5 times in Meydan in about four months, since early December, 2024, time for a break.
Well if he shows that he needs it, he’ll get it…but I’d love it if he could come on over – especially for the Belmont. Heart continued to thrive despite all the racing he did, so…
We’ll see!
Betsy, have you been reading up in your Racing Post, Timeform, Sporting Life et al in preparation for the upcoming 2,000 and 1,000 Guineas? Haha
So much to do, so little time!!
I haven’t, David, lol…..I’ve been busy, and when back in my cottage, watching so much great British tv..
I will check to see if those papers are even available where I am, though I’m not sure I can justify spending an entire day just watching the races, lol
Betsy, you can read most of the information from the above’s websites. I know exactly what you mean, there is so much racing on TV in England you can trap yourself.
Especially when the Classics and other major races start rolling in from May onwards. Ha ha
You would think—running a strong 2nd in The Santa Anita Derby would get you in….and by Puca—it’s a shame..
It’s a shame they penalize the horses that run, and do well. Why not keep the points for the top three intact and eliminate the rest?
Steve, spot on with the top 4. There will be plenty of speed when the gates open for the KD. I am curious to know when Luxor Cafe will be brought stateside and compete with our best horses. He is well bred and very talented.
I. Not too certain this year won’t have a lone front runner…..like War Emblem—Im talking about Rodriguez….
Just read on another site, Rodriguez and Citizen Bull which are owned by a partnership group including SF Racing and a few others, they are aiming to run both horses in the KD.
Citizen Bull can not be rated, neither can Rodriguez….that’s two front runners plus at least a couple of more more….. Owen Almighty, East Avenue.
Steve, you’re on fire! Thanks for posting another good ‘un, with more to come Wednesday. I think most of us would agree with your top three, and the rest are an interesting selection in what looks to (otherwise) be a wide open Derby field. I’ve been spending time looking at the pedigrees for the prospective runners, and came to the conclusion that Chunk of Gold has sneaky good, under-the-radar bloodlines. I expect he will be a good choice for a super. Looking forward to the races at Keeneland today and tomorrow. The first classy 2YOs debut in about 20 minutes.
Yes, that Aidrie breeding is always under the radar and always sneaky strong.
Journalism will get his screws tightened now—stamina laded horse has not needed fast interim works—will get two works, possibly both at Santa Anita probably one at Churchill—I envision an impressive victory….
Hi Matthew , I share your confidence and optimism in Journalism. One more race to close the deal. Hope he gets a good PP. He breaks out of the gate well , which will serve him well in the KY Derby.
Joe yes he does break well!—He’s the whole package! I loved his mama, Doug pit her up against everybody, she was just not top tier but she competed—and Curlin got better with age! Others I like include Sovereignty, Tappan Street and Grande, will also use Rodriguez—he has thrived, with the blinkers removal—he does look like Sunday Sillence!
Steve, thanks for all your work in presenting for us your weekly research. It is very much appreciated. American Promise. If any horse needed a seven-week respite, it is him. He has the most foundation of any of the horses. Nine races, eight of them routes, but only three this year. A total of 74.5 furlongs of racing. Everyone is always dissing on Lukas for running his horses ragged, but here he is giving his horse rest and especially after running a fast race with internal splits that Secretariat would be envious of, and I might add Spend a Buck. He is a cruiser.
Thank you Rob, the AP comment was changed a bit.