2025 Kentucky Derby Rankings – Week 12
With this being the final Derby Rankings and expanding to the potentially full field of 20, get your reading glasses because this is a long one. We have gone over the horses for 11 weeks and now we can start looking at them, not so much in strengths and weaknesses or positives and negatives, but more appropriately, questions and answers. And we can finally get the complete picture of their Thoro-Graph patterns for those who rely on other important factors than just speed to determine how a horse is coming up to a race. Final evaluations will be done after watching the horses train and observing their overall appearance and demeanor in the days leading up to the race and put together in our final Derby analysis and handicapping column. ~ Steve Haskin
Derby Rankings: April 14, 2025 – Week 12
By Steve Haskin
1—Journalism (Mike McCarthy, Curlin – Mopotism, by Uncle Mo)
He is now the clear-cut favorite and must be looked at through that lens. Last week we discussed all his attributes in overcoming adversity, such as being pinned down on the rail and bumped repeatedly over a looser and more tiring track than we normally see at Santa Anita. This no doubt was a great learning experience for what he could very well encounter at Churchill Downs. Many have brought up his Beyer regression from a 108 to a 102. And we also saw a similar regression on Thoro-Graph from a “negative-1/2” to a plus “1 ½.” You can look at that two ways – that he peaked too early and could now be going in the wrong direction or more likely he did way too much in the San Felipe, a race that no doubt gutted the inexperienced runner-up Barnes, and he was fortunate that happened two races before the Derby and not the race before. Now that he got his “bounce” out of the way he can shift gears and go forward again. We won’t know for sure, so we’ll just see how he trains and what his energy level is. He is a powerful, determined runner down the stretch, but he’s always had just one horse to catch, and there should be several fast top-class horses in front of him as he turns for home in the Derby. If the Journalism we’ve seen in five-horse fields proves to be the same Journalism in a 20-horse field we could be witnessing the start of something special.
1—Sovereignty (Bill Mott, Into Mischief – Crowned, by Bernardini)
In many ways, his Thoro-Graph numbers, although not as fast as some of the others we’ve seen, form a pattern that is more conducive to producing a peak performance in the Derby. One of the patterns I always look for and which very often proves successful is pairing up a career top after a big move forward. By pairing up instead of regressing, it shows that the big forward move was legitimate and another one is forthcoming. What follows may scramble your brain a little, but here goes. As examples, Sandman improved from a “7” to a career high “4 ½.” He then paired up that “4 ½” and jumped to a “1 ½” in the Arkansas Derby. Burnham Square improved fom a “7” to a “4,” then paired up the “4” and jumped to a “1 ½“ in the Blue Grass. Grande began his career with a strong “5 ½” and paired that up in his second start, then jumped to a “1/2” in the Wood Memorial. We saw the same improvement after a career-high pairing from River Thames in the Fountain of Youth and Final Chapter in the Jeff Ruby. The one thing they all have in common is that they made their big improvement off the pairing in the race “before” the Kentucky Derby. Sovereignty, by jumping from a “5 ¾” to a career-high “1 ¾,” then pairing that up with another “1 ¾” in the Florida Derby is now expected to make his big forward move “in” the Kentucky Derby. Based on all that, Sovereignty is the one horse who is on schedule to run the best race of his life in the Kentucky Derby.
3—Tappan Street (Brad Cox, Into Mischief – Virginia Key, by Distorted Humor)
WinStar president and CEO Elliott Walden said the week WinStar bought him, their longtime partner and friend Anthony Manganaro of Siena Farm died. Walden tried to name the colt Manganaro, but it was not available, so he was named for the street in Boston where he grew up. Although I’m still a bit wary when it comes to horses with only three starts I do like his steady Thoro-Graph progression of “7…4 ½…1 ½“ showing significant improvement with each race, but nothing dramatic to suggest a possible “bounce.” We really don’t know what his ceiling is, but another three-point jump, or even a little less, which he very well may be capable of judging from his first three races, can easily win the Derby. We saw how much he improved from his second start in the Holy Bull to his third start in the Florida Derby with a little break between races to give him sufficient time to mature. The fact that he was so professional defeating such a top-class colt as Sovereignty helps alleviate whatever concern there may be about having only three starts. And by outrunning a horse who is a relentless stretch runner he showed how dangerous his tactical speed is. He has the perfect running style, sitting comfortably behind the speed and getting first jump on the closers. A horse’s mind can be his biggest weapon in the Derby and Cox said this colt’s mind is one of his best attributes and he handles everything that’s asked of him. He is confident he will be both mentally and physically prepared for the Derby. His female family is not going to blow you away with big-name class and stamina influences and he doesn’t have a lot of miles under him, but he has gotten better the farther he’s gone, while facing stronger opponents each time.
4—Grande (Todd Pletcher, Curlin, Journey Home, by War Front)
I can’t believe I’m ranking another horse with three career starts this high. But in this new less-is-better racing world I can’t fight it any longer. Let’s start by saying he had no shot to beat Rodriguez in the Wood Memorial, with the winner rattling off :23 and change and :24 and change quarters and flying home his last three-eighths in :36 4/5. On top of that, Grande lost a ton of ground the entire race, getting forced five-wide on the first turn and taking the turn into the stretch wide. As a result, he received a huge Thoro-Graph number of “1/2,” while Rodriguez got a “2 ¼” despite beating Grande by 3 ½ lengths. Rodriguez had opened a four-length lead at the eighth and even though closed is final eighth in a swift :12 2/5, Grande was able to slightly whittle away at that lead. The most important thing to remember is that Rodriguez had been running in graded stakes against Journalism, Citizen Bull, and Barnes all winter and had easily beaten Baeza, while Grande was coming off only a maiden and an allowance race in his career; was running without Lasix for the first time; lost his regular rider John Velazquez, who was in Dubai; was taken completely out of his comfort zone by getting forced wide and dropping back to seventh after stalking the pace in his first two starts; and had to make a premature move to reach contention. And it’s not like he was your typical Pletcher hotshot. How often do you see a Pletcher first-time starter by Curlin and owned by Mike Repole go off at 9-1 at Gulfstream Park? Yet he was brilliant enough to easily defeat a 1-2 favorite. Again, I prefer him having more than three career starts, but at least they were at 1 1/8 miles twice and one-mile once, so he has plenty of bottom, he gets Velazquez back, and he certainly has proven he’s gritty and a flat-out runner.
5—Rodriguez (Bob Baffert, Authentic – Cayala, by Cherokee Run)
Yes, there is speed in the Derby, and then there is Baffert speed, and with bad starts and traffic problems always a possibility in a 20-horse field, often when the smoke clears there is one horse in front. And if that’s a Baffert horse watch out; we’ve seen it before. His horses are fast and dead-fit and they can settle going in :46 and change and keep going, as his last three Derby winners have done. Baffert was thrilled with how easily Rodriguez won the Wood Memorial “When I saw him cruising out there with his ears up I thought, ‘They’re not gonna touch him.’ He wasn’t tired or blowing after the race.” To show how confident Baffert was going into the Wood, a week before, he had Mike Smith go to Gulfstream to ride Madaket Road in the Florida Derby and after the colt tired to finish fourth, he told Smith, “Don’t worry, next week will make up for it. I got a perfect horse for you.“ Next week, of course, was the Wood, and before the race he told Smith that this was a horse who needed “soft hands,” which Smith is known for. As Baffert put it, “You need to give him love and affection.” One of the reasons he lost so badly in the San Felipe was that he lost his composure before the race, and Flavien Prat didn’t push him once he saw he was empty. Baffert has helped alleviate that problem by using ear plugs on the colt. As we have mentioned several times, but is worth repeating, he is a May 20 foal, so he is still learning to be a racehorse. But he is a fast, talented colt, and when you can settle on the lead and run quarters in :23, :24, :23 4/5, :24 2/5, and come home in :12 2/5 (that’s a :36 4/5 final three-eighths) it’s going to take an exceptional performance to beat you. Also remember, the last time he was allowed to go to the front he crushed Baeza by seven lengths. So, like with most of Baffert’s top horses, run with him at your own peril; leave him alone at your own peril.
6—East Avenue (Brendan Walsh, Medaglia d’Oro – DanceMusic, by Ghostzapper)
Because of the dramatic peaks and valley in his short, but tumultuous career, he is difficult to evaluate following a resurgent second-place finish, beaten a nose, in the Blue Grass Stakes with the addition of blinkers. With his apparent penchant for the lead and the presence of two fast, classy Baffert bullets, maybe three, can he actually win the Kentucky Derby on the lead, or from off it for that matter? The East Avenue of last year I definitely believe could, even though I felt he was classy enough to win from off the pace and still feel that way. What I find most interesting is that in his impressive Breeders’ Futurity romp at Keeneland last year he received a strong “3” Thoro-Graph number. Then came those two debacles when he ran a “10 ½” and “11 ½. Now back at Keeneland following a series of sensational works since his baffling Risen Star performance, he runs another “3.” It is important to remember that he ran that big number and turned back the entire field only to nipped on the wire with this virtually being his first real race since October, as he did no running at Del Mar and only ran about a half-mile at Fair Grounds. The fact that he ran so big over a deep tiring track bodes well for the future. So was this nothing more than a joyous homecoming for him or the beginning of arguably the biggest comeback of the year? All I know is that when I first laid eyes on this colt I was convinced he could do anything and was destined to do great things. I still am. But he is at a major crossroad, and I don’t think there is any way to tell at this point what path he’s going to take until around the three-eighths pole of the Kentucky Derby.
7—Burnham Square (Ian Wilkes, Liam’s Map – Linda, by Scat Daddy)
I didn’t rank him and some of the other closers higher because I can’t picture them out-closing both Journalism and Sovereignty. My only question with him is, although the Blue Grass was deep in talent the entire field was separated by three-to-four lengths down the stretch and four lengths at the finish through a final three-eighths in a sluggish :39 2/5. But to his credit the track was slow, and by running 42 feet farther than runner-up East Avenue, which equates to about five lengths, which is why Burnham Square received a strong “1 ½” Thoro-Graph number compared to East Avenue’s “3,” even though they finished noses apart. Because of this field’s credentials going into the race, with four graded stakes winners and a horse who was beaten a neck by Sovereignty in the Fountain of Youth, it’s difficult to tell if the lack of separation in the stretch meant anything at all. One note of interest: as many know, Wilkes was a longtime assistant to Carl Nafzger, actually training the majority of their horses after Nafzger semi-retired. Wilkes was mentored by Nafzger, just as Nafzger was mentored by the legendary trainer, owner, and breeder John Nerud, who was the first person he called after Street Sense won the Kentucky Derby. The point of all this is that in Burnham Square’s pedigree there are an amazing 18 horses who were bred by John Nerud, including Unbridled, who won the Kentucky Derby for Nafzger; his sire Fappiano, the founder of one of the greatest sire lines in American breeding; the great Dr. Fager and his champion sister Ta Wee; and the brilliant Ogygian. Also in Burnham Square’s pedigree is the top-class sire In Reality, whose breeding was orchestrated by Nerud for his friend Frances Genter, and who raised him and stood him at Tartan Farm. And in the breeding world, the name Nerud means class, speed, stamina, and the ability to handle all surfaces. With Burnham Square’s strong Thoro-Graph pattern and his Beyer figures improving every race, all he needs now is for all 8those Nerud qualities to come out on Derby Day.
8—Luxor Café (Hori Nuriyuki, American Pharoah – Mary’s Follies, by More Than Ready)
His questions are loud, but his answers could be deafening if the horse we saw win the Fukuryu Stakes is the same horse we are going to see at Churchill Downs. Every year at the start of the Derby trail the first thing I look for is a horse that possesses that electrifying turn of foot that can blow a race wide open in the blink of an eye. Unfortunately, it is something you rarely see, so it is exciting when you do see it. You could sense it building up as the large field approached the top of the stretch and there was one horse still on cruise control merely coasting to the lead on the outside with his rider just waiting to step on the gas. Once he did, Luxor Café took off as if he had been given a hotfoot and was long gone in a matter of seconds. We have no idea what he beat or how fast or slow a race this was, but I timed the final eighth several times and got him between :11.88 and :12, and that is flying wherever it is. One thing to note, however, is that in his two victories over the right-handed course at Nakayama he blew the field away to win by five lengths, and his two victories over the left-handed Tokyo course he won by a nose and a diminishing half-length in the Hyacinth Stakes. But finishing fourth in the Hyacinth, beaten 3 ¼ lengths, was Admire Daytona, who won the UAE Derby in his next start. According to Kate Hunter, the Japanese representative for all the major U.S. races and Churchill’s Asia representative, the course direction is not a major factor, as many elements can come into play. What is more important is that Nakayama has a bit of a hill in the stretch, which can knock out some horses, but Luxor Café just “powers up the hill and off he goes.” Also there had been some rain before the two races that firmed up the track, indicating he will like the firmer tracks in America. Finally, in his six starts, his field sizes ranged from 10 to 16, so he’s used to large fields. He leaves Japan on April 21, quarantine’s in Chicago, and arrives in Kentucky on April 23.
9—Sandman (Mark Casse, Tapit – Distorted Music, by Distorted Humor)
As I alluded to earlier, I feel if Journalism and Sovereignty are both going to get beat it likely will be by a brilliant horse they can’t catch rather than being caught by one of the deep closers. I have to admit, I honestly have no idea where to rank him, how good he is, or who he beat in the Arkansas Derby, other than the runner-up was still a maiden making his seventh start, and the big favorite had only one six-furlong maiden win in his career and was part of a complete pace meltdown, in which the first two finishers came from last and next-to-last, closing through a sluggish :39 4/5 final three-eighths. Also, he still has some issues to work out after an atrocious start in the Southwest Stakes that cost him all chance and ducking out abruptly after getting hit left-handed in the Arkansas Derby with a two-length lead. And finally, the quality of the Oaklawn 3-year-olds is in question, with only longshots Coal Battle and Publisher making it to the Derby. But there are a lot of people who still love this horse, and after watching an interview on the “In the Owners Box” podcast with one of his minority partners, the young and engaging Griffen Johnson, who has almost 10 million Tik Tok followers, I wouldn’t expect any enticing odds on Sandman in the Derby. But I will say that, despite all this, the colt is definitely improving and even though the Arkansas Derby fell right into his lap, his Beyer figure shot up to a 99, and as we mentioned earlier, his Thoro-Graph numbers went from a “4 ½” pairing to a “1 ½.” He is a beautiful gray colt with an excellent demeanor who is in good hands, and he’s consistent, experienced, and battle-tested, unlike some of those ranked above him. Just be prepared to get lower odds than you want.
10—Baeza (John Shirreffs, Mckinzie – Puca, by Big Brown)
Although I have no doubt he will get in the Derby, until he does I can only rank him somewhere in the middle. But once he officially makes it into the field he no doubt would move up the Rankings. Of the four horses ahead of him on points, Madaket Road’s status won’t be decided until they see how he works in the next couple of weeks. There is no official decision yet on Built, but it looks as if he’s probably headed to the Pat Day Mile, according to owner Aron Wellman. Neoequos is scheduled to work on the grass and could point for the American Turf at Churchill Downs, and Render Judgment looks to be headed for an allowance race to help boost his confidence after getting beat in five straight stakes. Could it be his Kentucky Derby fate will be in the hands of Baffert and the owners of Madaket Road, who also own Citizen Bull, and Rodriguez? As for the Santa Anita Derby, as big a performance as that was, the bottom line is he had only one horse to beat, with Baffert’s pair in full retreat by the eighth pole, one of whom was too preoccupied with other matters like keeping the door shut on Journalism for as long as possible instead of trying to at least finish second. But even with second guaranteed, Baeza put up a heckuva fight, despite still being a bit green, gawking at the grandstand after turning for home. What was most interesting was him getting a “zero” Thoro-Graph number, a full 1 ½ points faster than Journalism. His pattern of “15 ½…6 ¾…4…and 0” suggests either a horse who is taking it too fast and flirting with a “bounce” or a horse on a rapid rise to stardom. Let’s hope we get to find out which one. But to me the important thing is that he makes the Preakness to try to complete the most amazing Triple Crown sweep ever for his mom, who will write her own chapter in the history books if he can pull that off.
11—Final Gambit (Brad Cox, Not This Time – Pachinko, by Tapit)
He may be ranked No. 11 because of his uncertainty on dirt, but he definitely is a horse I’m going to bet to win because that same uncerainty will jack up his price. If I’m going to take a stab on an unknown commodity, like a horse who has never run on dirt or even worked well on it, I want him to hand me the knife, and for now at least he did that with his last work. Could it be a late-blooming romance with the dirt, which he spurned as a youngster? Working five furlongs by himself he motored home his last quarter in :23 2/5 to complete the five panels in 1:00 4/5 before going out another eighth in :12 4/5 for a 1:13 3/5 six furlongs, and galloping out seven furlongs in 1:27. From what little I could tell, the rider had a ton of horse, leaning forward with his hands way down on the colt’s neck. There is no missing this horse, with his beautiful light gray coat and striking black mane and tale, especially when he’s storming down the stretch, passing horses with a fluid stride that makes him look like he’s just gliding over the track. Yes, he could be pulling a fast one and I’m falling for it, but his huge Thoro-Graph leap from a “12 ¼” to a “5 ¾” and Beyer jump from a 63 to a 90 indicates this colt has either busted out of his cocoon and is ready to fly or the Jeff Ruby was no more than one of those Let It Ride/Richard Dreyfuss “I’m having a very good day” races. I saw what I was looking for regarding times in his work, but still want to actually see him with my own eyes. Until then I’ll take a sip of the Kool-Aid and decide if I should drink up and keep overdoing the metaphors.
12—Chunk of Gold (Ethan West, Preservationist – Play For Gold, by Cairo Prince)
Don’t pay too much attention to him dropping a few spots. I still feel the same about him as I did when I kept ranking him in the top 10 every week, expecting a potential breakout performance good enough at least hit the board in the Kentucky Derby. But he, like fellow Louisiana Derby runner Tiztastic, has suffered from absenteeism. There has been too much activity and movement to expect him to maintain his position, even though he, unlike the others, has proven himself at 1 3/16 miles, pretty much eliminating any questions about staying the Derby distance. Just to rehash, this $2,500 bargain basement yearling turned in a performance in the Risen Star Stakes that went virtually unnoticed behind the freakish performance of Magnitude. Making only his third career start and first on dirt, he made a strong and steady move along the inside and kept building up momentum until he ran smack into a traffc jam and a rapidly retreating East Avenue backing up right in front of him. He had to alter course and cut sharply to the rail. After finally being able to level off he closed strongly along the inside to nip Built at the wire for second, with his Thoro-Graph number jumping from an “11 ½” to a “5.” Instead of “bouncing,” as one would expect, he paired up his “5” and remember what I wrote earlier about pairing up your career top number. Stretching out to 1 3/16 miles in the Louisiana Derby, he was the only horse within two or three lengths of a wicked pace to be anywhere at finish, and was still running hard to the wire to finish second, with the winner and third-place finisher coming from last and next to last and all the other horses close to the pace finishing at the back of the pack. He was a tired horse after the race and with a much-needed six weeks off, he could very well make that expected big move on Thoro-Graph and surprise a lot of people.
13—Tiztastic (Steve Asmussen, Tiz the Law – Keesha, by Tapit)
I could go over the same points I’ve gone over every week since the Louisiana Derby, but let’s go a completely different route and make a rather long-winded case for this handsome colt with a history lesson. There haven’t been many trainers that have had more Derby disappointments and ‘what ifs’ than Asmussen, and the same can be said for Tiztastic’s family. Asmussen has been trying for years to fill in the missing piece of his Derby record of finishing second (three times), third, fourth, fifth, sixth, and was beaten a nose for seventh. In 2011, it looked like he had the race won when 8-1 Nehro put away pace-setting Shackleford in the stretch, but he was run down by 20-1 Animal Kingdom, who became the only horse in history to win the Derby in his first ever start on dirt. In 2022, he surely looked to have it won when 4-1 favorite Epicenter held off his only threat Zandon, but out of nowhere came 80-1 Rich Strike to sneak up the inside and beat him in the final strides, becoming the second biggest longshot winner in Derby history. And in 2016 there was Creator, who according to the chart footnotes “checked sharply” and then was “bumped soundly” making his big move, costing him all chance. He would come back to win the Belmont Stakes. This year, he looked to have a live Derby horse when Magnitude demolished his field in the Risen Star Stakes only to suffer a chip fracture three days later. Moving to Tiztastic, most everyone believes his sire Tiz the Law would have been in a cinch in the Derby had it not been moved to September because of Covid. By then he had already peaked in the Travers and couldn’t prevent the late-developing Authentic from wiring the field, finishing a clear second. Tiztastic’s broodmare sire Tapit was bet down to 6-1 in the Derby after winning the Wood Memorial, but floundered in the slop and never ran a lick. Tapit’s sire Pulpit was one of the favorites in the Derby, but suffered a career ending injury during the race. As for Pulpit’s sire A.P. Indy, is there anyone who doesn’t believe he would have won the Derby if he hadn’t suffered a quarter crack Derby week that forced him to miss the race? So is it time for this trainer and this family to finally get those elusive roses? Hey, there are all kinds of betting angles.
14—Citizen Bull (Bob Baffert, Into Mischief – No Joke, by Distorted Humor)
I would say “how quickly the mighty have fallen,” but for some reason many people never considered him mighty, at least not for a champion 2-year-old and a two-time Grade 1 winner who easily won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. What contributed mostly to the skepticism was the fact that he had never been challenged and had won his races with an uncontested lead. But his speed figures were fast, and the Santa Anita Derby was his big opportunity to silence the doubters. So exactly what happened in his much-anticipated showdown with Journalism to cause him to fold under the pressure from the highly regarded Baeza’s so-called rabbit Westwood, who was entered not only to prevent Citizen Bull or even Bob Baffert’s other horse Barnes from stealing the race, but also to help fill the field to avoid a major point reduction? What happened may have been nothing more than sending out a short horse who hadn’t run in two months following an easy victory in the Robert Lewis Stakes. Baffert, who wants very badly to get back to the Derby with a big shot to win after his three-year suspension, admitted he under-trained Citizen Bull to keep him safe and sound until it was time to tighten the screws and make sure he gets to Churchill Downs 100-percent fit. But the colt, who packs a good deal of flesh, gained a lot of weight during his two months off and just wasn’t ready to be put under that kind of pressure for the first time in his career. With this race under his belt, we should see a much tighter and more competitive horse at Churchill Downs. But now it is up to Baffert and his jockeys to make sure Citizen Bull and Rodriguez don’t cross paths too early in the Derby.
15—Coal Battle (Lonnie Briley, Coal Front – Wolfblade, by Midshipman
I hate to rank him this far down, but this is such a mixed bag of Derby horses you really don’t know who fits where. I do question how good the Oaklawn 3-year-olds were this year, but I do have a great deal of respect for this tough little colt, and admit the separation between him and Sandman probably is too big, but unavoidable considering the horses in between all look to be sitting on a potential winning effort with a career peak performance, while his numbers, which were never very strong, regressed in the Arkansas Derby, suggesting we may have seen the best of him after four consecutive stakes performances. But as I have mentioned, I think he may have been at a disadvantage the way the race unfolded with the suicidal pace into which he moved earliest of all. With his versatility and will to win, I certainly wouldn’t be surprised if he turned the tables on Sandman and Publisher, but the way the Derby is shaping up, the situation may be pretty much the same as it was at Oaklawn and he will be facing a number of horses who appear to be more brilliant and talented than the ones he’s been facing. As a racing fan and journalist you have to root for him and Lonnie Briley, but when compiling rankings, rooting shouldn’t come into play. I just want to see him with a chance to win turning for home and still be in the hunt down the stretch and let the Derby gods take it from there.
16—River Thames (Todd Pletcher, Maclean’s Music – Proportionality, by Discreet Cat)
The talent is there, but there has always been the question of stamina, with the abundance of speed in his pedigree. He has shown his brilliance, his excellent tactical speed, and his consistency with four solid races; the last two against top-class stakes horses, including Sovereignty, who only beat him by a neck. He was beaten three-quarters of a length, finishing third behind two talented horses in the Blue Grass, but he did have every chance to win in the final furlong, as did every horse in the bunched-up field, but he couldn’t get by East Avenue and couldn’t hold off Burnham Square, so you have to wonder if he can improve stretching out to a mile and a quarter. If he can it likely will be due to his second dam, who is by Belmont winner Touch Gold, out of a mare by Kentucky Derby winner Grindstone. He has a solid Thoro-Graph pattern of “5…5… 3…2 ½,” which shows a nice steady improvement, but he likely would have to make bigger jump forward to win the Derby.
17—American Promise (Wayne Lukas, Justify – Tapella, by Tapit)
This horse can drive you crazy trying to figure out who he is, how good he is, and if he can actually win the Kentucky Derby. Although I have him ranked down here, if you told me you had him ranked in the top 5 I would have no problem with it. I would normally dismiss him coming into the Kentucky Derby off an unprecedented (in over a century) seven-week layoff, but if any horse needed the time it’s him. First off, he has raced every four weeks like clockwork, with the exception of one three-week span, since July. His nine starts are double and triple the careers of most of these horses. But from a handicapping standpoint, the main reason he would need the time off can be seen in his Thoro-Graph numbers. After still running an “8 ½” and “7” after eight career starts, he launched a “1” rocket from out of nowhere in the Virginia Derby over that souped up track and one-turn mile and an eighth, winning by almost eight lengths. This is a horse who had one victory in eight starts, and that was by 1 ½ lengths on a muddy sealed track and ridden by a five-pound bug boy. And who do you think finished second? None other than America’s iron maiden Publisher, who keeps improving and gaining support despite never having won a race in seven career starts. So where did this freaky Virginia Derby performance come from? Will we see it again? Based on my expertise I will say, beats me.
18—Publisher (Steve Asmussen, American Pharoah – Indian Pride, by Proud Citizen)
In 2017, Asmussen ran second in the Kentucky Derby with 33-1 shot Lookin At Lee, coming off a six-race losing streak, who rallied from 17th after finishing a fast-closing third in the Arkansas Derby. This year, Asmussen is sending out the 2025 version of Lookin At Lee who is still a maiden after seven starts, but is coming off a fast-closing second in the Arkansas Derby. That’s the best we can do with what we’ve got and what he has given us. Can this horse finish in the money at Churchill Downs? If he gets another pace meltdown, any of the proven late closers who get a perfect trip are capable of it. But for a horse trying to become the first maiden to win the Derby since 1933, that’s about as far as we’ll go. The best betting advice I can give you is he will take money in the trifectas and superfectas. Oh, and one more. Some day he will win a race.
19—Flying Mohawk (Whit Beckman, Karakontie – Bonbons Fleur, by Twirling Candy)
I would love to see this $72,000 purchase put up a good showing for his trainer, who I believe is one of the best young conditioners in the country, and for his co-owner and World Series champion Jayson Werth, who showed last year with Dornoch he one of racing’s great ambassadors. But never having run on dirt, having a career-high 84 Beyer and “8 ½” Thoro-Graph number, and unable to match strides with Final Gambit in the Jeff Ruby, there aren’t any of the above horses I can rank him over. But if he should handle the dirt, he has proven to be a very versatile colt who is effective setting the pace or coming from far back, as he did in the Jeff Ruby after getting bumped around at the start. He did work in company at Churchill with Beckman’s Derby starter from last year Honor Marie, going a half in :50 4/5. It’s better to have a horse who has never run on dirt and not knowing how he’ll handle it than having a proven dirt horse who you believe deep down inside is just not good enough. You never know what is lurking in the unknown.
20—Admire Daytona (Kato Yukihiro, Drefong – Ice Pastel, by Shackleford)
I do admire this colt after his gutsy victory in the UAE Derby going 1 3/16 miles and I respect any horse coming from Japan, especially after the amazing race T.O. Password ran to finish fifth at odds of 48-1 in last year’s Kentucky Derby when all eyes were on Forever Young. I have no idea how this horse wants to run. He set a contentious pace in the UAE Derby being pressed every step of the way, and the pace in the Kentucky Derby likely is going to be faster than any he’s ever seen. And with that gut-wrenching stretch duel and then traveling here and coming back in four weeks it has to be a tough asssignment. But in the Hyacinth Stakes he came from well off pace and rallied to finish fourth behind Luxor Café, beaten only 3 ¼ lengths. We saw how versatile T.O. Password was last year, so who knows? No. 20 or not, I’m sure not going to say he has no chance.
EARLY ACTION ON AND OFF THE TRACK
Tappan Street turned in a solid half-mile work in :48 2/5, out in 1:01 2/5 in company with Rapture at Payson Park.
Sovereignty also worked a half in :48 2/5 at Payson Park, and that is an excellent work for him.
Chunk of Gold, still at Turfway Park, opened a few eyes with a five-furlong work in :59 3/5 after a :47 and change half, and then went out six furlongs in a dazzling 1:12 flat.
Tiztastic and Publisher worked five furlongs in company, finishing on the line together in 1:00 4/5.
Admire Daytona arrived at Churchill Downs on Thursday and was scheduled to train on Sunday.
Citizen Bull was back on the work tab Sunday going an easy five furlongs in 1:01, as Baffert is wasting no time cranking him back up.
Very early 20-1 or higher overlays — Grande, Final Gambit, Chunk of Gold.
Racing historian, author, and award-winning retired journalist for the Daily Racing Form and The Blood-Horse, Steve Haskin was inducted into the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame’s Media Roll of Honor in 2016. Known for his racing knowledge and insightful prose, he has been an exclusive contributor to Secretariat.com since 2020.
Steve, your analysis is much appreciated. You are, in my view, The Oracle of the Adelphi Hotel. (My apologies to any mythologists out there.) I cannot recall a year when so many contenders fit the Derby winner’s contemporary historical profile. Complicating these considerations is the unprecedented relative inexperience of this probable field.
The top horses that I can’t separate are your Top 5 plus possibly So Happy (pending further review, including Brisnet figs). For wagering, it’s looking like The Puma will be the value bet. Potente and Fulleffort are longshot possibilities, along with the biggest question mark horse of all, Danon Bourbon.
Sorry, wrong year!
The #1 & #20 will gun outta there—Mike could get a great position settling behind them….Rodriguez—also Anerican Promise and for that matter Prat on #2—I would’ve preferred more outside, for Journalism—but he’s a good gate horse that could sit a good trip—he breaks between two slow breakers….
Don’t know if anyone saw Simply Joking work the other day, I think it was Saturday actually, but she had the best work of the day. She is without a doubt my pick in the oaks. She looked so strong and moved so well it was a breath taking workout and she did it under restraint the whole way. It is a must watch. She is a beauty.
Just for fun I gave ChatGPT some information on the Kentucky Derby field then asked the question who is liable to win.
Answer: Journalism, Sandman, and Sovereignty have the best chances to win with Luxor Cafe the best of the outsiders to upset the above three.
Quite shrewd, ChatGPT!!
If Baffert can get Barnes to rate and possibly become a closer I think he could run with the best of them.. the likes of Sierra Leone!!! JMO.
I don’t expect Rod to be fighting for the lead—they drew the rail, and sent–in New York—I expect Mike will have Rod 4 lengths off—sweeping to the front, on the far turn and catch if you can….I just think this horse is all that…Sovereignty and Journalism closing on!
One slot ahead of the other. The horror! You must have missed Steve’s explanation for the ranking. Your last sentence is an insult.
If handicapping were as rudimentary as many of your statistics and comparisons, there would be no need to run the races. At that point in his career, Fierceness had already proven himself less than dependable under adversity. The same could be said this year of East Avenue. Journalism is the one horse who has shown no flaws up to this point.
East Avenue is just getting started. Ran well last race.
American Promise has arrivred at CHD.
He looks fit and he is a big boy, WOW.
Looks a little like a mature Secretariat.
Isn’t he !!! I like the comparison!!!
Wow is right. Arnold Schwarzenegger-esque physique.
Easy to knock someone else’s picks. Yet, you have not posted a list of your own top picks.
I have come to the realization, you have mastered hypocrisy.
You saw what I told him. If he doesn’t make a definitive selection none of his post Derby comments will be accepted.
I watched a replay of the Fukuryu where Luxor Cafe passed the field like they were standing still. Honestly, it looked like the field was waiting for Luxor Cafe to pass them. Like a training race. Luxor Cafe looked terrific. But that field didn’t look like much. Hard to get a read on how good Luxor Cafe really is. I will rely on Steve Haskin to give us his opinion of the horse.
Steve Haskin has him ranked 8th. So, he must like him a bit. Steve Haskin also points out the quick turn of foot. And actually timed the finish himself. The negative that Steve Haskin points out is that Luxor Cafe has been dominate in right hand turn races and less so in left hand turn races. Could be a key observation. I never would have noticed that.
LC is an enormous talent.
Top 3 BSF horses this year will be tough to beat:
Journalism 108
Rodriguez 102
Baeza 101
Both Rodriguez (best KD trainer by far) and Baeza are developing extremely fast.
Those two I will be keying with Journalism
Ben Jones was the best.
Ben isn’t in this years field
You didn’t specify that.
What about the Japanese duo? They look formidable to me.
1948 Derby six horses… small Derby fields were common….try 7 wins I n 20-horse fields and a nose loss with a Cal bred–you dont have to like the guy—-he has done well, in the 20-horse era. ..
Looks like you cherry-picked, Matthew. Ben Jones won the derby with fields of 10, 11, 16, 6, 14, and 16. You picked the outlier.
And I might add that multiple runners trained by Baffert in numerous derbies level out your distinctions.
No cheery picking necessary—you just listed a batch of non-20-horse fields….
It’s OK to disagree–were talking horses! I just think Ben Jones had it easier, the mutual prices were less—Im not at all upset that you think Jones was tops….I only think 20 horse fields ate more difficult—
Matthew you’re on point.
I’ve got no problem with disagreements. They keep the mind sharp. I thought your comment was misleading, by saying derby fields were smaller during Ben’s time and by giving the 6-horse field as the lone example.
Also, I think it was important for me to note Baffert’s multiple entries. Three times he had three entries. Seven times he had two entries. He totaled 6 winners (plus one DQ) from 34 starters. Ben Jones had 6 wins from 11 starters. Only once did he enter more than one. That was when his runners finished 1-2 in the aforementioned 1948 derby.
You said Baffert has the edge due to having to compete in modern-day 20-horse fields. Well, not every derby has 20 entries. Baffert’s 1997 win had 13. His 1998 win had 15. The September 2020 derby had 15 runners. Fact is only one of his winning derbies had 20; that was 2018.
Therefore, I’ll stick with Ben Jones as the best of all time.
Mike Relva says “on point” to a contention that BOB BAFFERT is the best derby trainer of all time. Looks like we won’t be seeing Mike bash Baffert ever again.
I think Citation and Whirlaway would have croaked American Pharoah and Justify. How’s that for an opinion?
Only agreed it’s fine to have different opinions. Sorry to disappoint you.
You embarrass yourself each time you attempt to rule this blog. Just a troll living in your private Idaho. Say hello to Barbara.
How many triple crowns did ole Ben have?
Cue the reinforcements.
TC is a different debate. This is about the Derby.
Sure, buddy.
What was Fierceness BSF number. He won his final KD prep by 14L pulling a bus. He faded to 15th; He wasn’t hard to beat if 14 of his opponents finished ahead of him.
Fierceness ran a dud—Fierceness tan some terrific races! I thought he ran the best race of the Breeders Cup….
It was Sierra Leone who ran the best race….HE WON!
I was ultra impressed with the Admire Daytona’s physical appearance. He is a well-made colt. I previously had no interest in the UAE Derby winner. But any thoroughbred with his physical attributes and achievements merits attention.
His sire Drefong excelled at sprint distances at the top level. The BC Sprint, Kings Bishop and Forego account for his trifecta of G1 wins. He was sired by Gio Ponti who a top-class turf router. But it appears he inherited his exceptional speed from dam sire Ghostzapper. Admire Daytona’s dam was sired by Preakness winner Shackleford who was also a speedster in his own right but over the longer distances.
Further research uncovered that Drefong sired Warp Speed who finished 2nd by a nose in the 2024 Melbourn Cup. It gets better. Warp Speed’s dam was sired by Japanese mega router and son of Sunday Silence, Deep impact. why is this significant? Admire Daytona’s Shackleford dam was out of a Sunday Silence mare.
Given that Admire Daytona led the UAE Derby under immense pressure and when headed in the lane and expected to decline. He surprisingly found extra to regain the lead and stubbornly kept his nose Infront at the wire. It could be concluded that he came out on the favorable side of a head bob, but he was the deserving of the victory for his share tenacity.
Folks, secretariat sired Melbourn cup winner Kingston Rule who was the fastest ever winner of the race. He came up short in the KD with Risen Star. Dynaformer sired 2010 Melbourne Cup winner Americain and KD winner Barbaro.
Drefong was a nose away from being the sire of Melbourne Cup winer. He will be represented in the 2025 KD by a colt with tactical speed and proven tenacity, in a field in which the significant entrants fall into the category of either mid-pack or closer. Could Drefong flip the Secretariat switch by finishing 2nd in the Melbourne Cup and win the KD? It’s the KD a race renown for strange results
Admiral Daytona is ideal for my longshot wager, to go along with many others. Is he good enough? TBD! His sire belongs to a bit of history that makes him worthy of attention.
Counter Point, rare that we see eye to eye on things but regarding Admire Daytona, I concur.
Way down in the comments I made mention of his pedigree.
Been watching his gallops at CHD this past week and I watched a video of his arrival at CHD earlier.
He does not appear, at least to me, that his journey from Dubai has affected him.
The gallops, again in my opinion, are typical for Japanese horses, building stamina.
He may not win the Derby but I believe there is a good chance of him finishing in the top 5.
Admire Daytona’s 2nd Dam (Million Gift) is half sister to Alabama winner Sky Beauty and daughter of Maplejinsky, who also won the Alabama. Maplejinsky herself was the half sister of Champion Dayjur, and daughter of Gold Beauty (1982 Champion Sprinter)
Looks like a high class blend of speed and stamina at 40-1 +, could blow up the tri and super payouts
Saw an interesting interview with trainer Ian Wilkes on Horse Racing Nation’s YouTube channel yesterday (Sat). Wilkes seems convinced that Burnham Square is going to take another step forward by the way he came out of the Blue Grass and how he’s been in training. Said he never saw the horse “quarter up” before like he did coming out of that race. Wilkes went on to speak about the horse’s fitness and how it’s “on another level” now. Also: “He come out of it [Blue Grass] high as a kite and I seen him going to the pole today he was a little bit too high. I’m glad I worked him because it was only 11 days ago that he ran. But I’m glad I let him stretch his legs because he would have got frustrated. But I’m seeing a horse that’s thriving, he’s moving improving every time.”
Too slow by KD standard.
Maybe you should let Ian know so he doesn’t waste any more time fooling himself and his connections?
Exactly!! Tell’m all to go home, they have no chance. El Kabong, I miss your sense of humor too much, made me giggle for ages.
Stays like a mother in law….
“Two Slow” by K. D. Standard
Michelle, my opinion is he’s trending upward. His trainer is first class!
I saw it. Sounds like he knows what is going on with Burnham Square. He wanted a maintenance move to settle him down. Burnham was very eager at first but eventually settled and looked good. Ian was right about him needing to release some energy. Looking forward to his last work if weather holds. This guy is peaking.
El Kabong, I agree.
Concur.
Burnham Square was quite frisky starting his workout yesterday, but settled down beautifully and was all business for the move.
Ms B, saw the same yesterday.
Dittos on both your comments he wants to run !!!
Yes, I’ll join the cub, a noticed work.
Club that is.
Sovereignty looked like a monster in his work. Journalism and his workman like style of running will not know what pass him. Godolphin could account for the exacta.
Interestingly, “workmanlike” was the adjective my dear friend Lisa – a brilliant equine vet and a pretty good Derby horse picker – assigned to American Pharoah ten years ago. (I thought so, too – I had Firing Line.)
Both are coming into the race very well….
After watching some workouts tonight, I think that a 5-horse box of Sovereignty, Journalism, East Avenue, Tappan Street, and Publisher should cover it.
With two weeks to go, I doubt that I will stray too far from those five. In what Order? Now, there’s the question.
East Avenue continues to seduce with his looks. But he is not the only one. We will be watching some beautiful colts on the first Saturday in May.
A Maiden finishing somewhere on the board in the Derby would surely spice up the payoffs. It might blow some people’s minds though.
A well seasoned maiden….overdue for a clean break….
No reason to think of Publisher as a maiden, even though he is one. He’s improved with every start in graded stakes. His biggest challenge is his running style.
I’d be keeping my powder dry until the final field and posts are drawn. Good luck, nonetheless.
Nelson, did you see that Signator has finally won a stakes race? On turf, at Laurel Park, the Henry Clark Stakes. The Japanese would be clever picking him up to try at stud.
Parchment Party showed some sign of life at Keeneland, perhaps he’s turned the corner. Who are your top 5 at present for the Kentucky Derby?
Yes Davids… I was happy to see Signator finding his “niche” with his second win on the grass showing a powerful late kick. Among the horses he defeated was Neat, winner of the Hall of Fame Stakes (G2) and excellent miler on the turf. I hope he continues his winning ways towards Graded Stakes …
Parchment Party finally ran his race finishing second at 23 to 1 against a dominant Just a Touch. That Allowance featured very good runners indeed …
Patience is paying off for both horses after they showed great promise as 2-yer-olds…
The top five I will be playing in the Derby are:
Journalism
Sovereignty
East Avenue
Luxor Cafe
Final Gambit
Thanks for asking…
Thanks Nelson, interesting top five. Luxor Cafe intrigues me, can’t wait to see him at Churchill Downs. Hope your horses get good posts. Fingers crossed, the post draw for the Kentucky Derby worry more than most things in racing. Lol.
Davids, I wish they had brought him to CHD earlier.
Yes Lynda, I’m the same. Luxor Cafe has always impressed but from a distance. With Forever Young, you got to know the horse intimately. Still, there’s enough time to get an overall opinion.
Nice group. That would be mine as well + Publisher (who is catching my eye physically).
Watching the horses at Churchill….
Sovereignty looks like a powerhouse. Big standout physically imo.
My new #1.
Longshot Hunter, I agree!
Great to hear you confirm what I’m seeing Lynda!
12th race at Oaklawn. A story we see all too often. Into the gate at 4-1 and pays off at 5-2.
I’m very sick of it. There has to be a better way.
The LA Teiunne (misspelled) will be a battle…before they teu males again—Thorpedo will face a large framed filly! 1:34 4/5 is fast, at Santa Anita….
…
(Pardon my spelling My sight has failed me.)
Hey Matthew! Hope your weekend is going well.
Thank you Mike…I took three dogs to the dog park—it’s a sunny day and The Three Stooges are coming on later—I finally got the new serpentine belt installed, in my Sienns—a tough task for a guy with limited visio (my wife helped get it around the far pully)..! I call that A GREAT SATURDAY!..
Appreciate your reply. Sounds like busy weekend.
Been looking over the Derby 20 or 22. I’m inclined to say this years edition is evolving into the “07 version of Curlin, Hard Spun & Street Sense with a bomb for 4th.
That said it’ll be Journalism, Sovereignty & Tappan Street with a bomb to complete the super.
It could be the Chunk of Gold we’re looking for.
Hey Mike have a great Easter to you and your family buddie!!
Thanks CC! You also. Hope all is well.
Journalism fired a 47 flat bullet work today at SA in a 4F workout. Did it easy and strong gallop out. He’s ready !
And looked really, really good. He’s going to be tough to beat.
Joe, great! He’s sitting on go.
Attn: Lynda King
A couple of days ago, you listed your top six selections, Burnham Square, Journalism, Sovereignty, Coal Battle, East Avenue and Sandman.
My wife is not into horse racing like I am, but she tolerates my involvement, which I appreciate. Every year I ask her to pick out the names of horses she likes for a superfecta wager. Last year she picked two out of the top four finishers. Yesterday, I handed her a sheet of paper with the names of this year’s likely entrants. She picked three out of the six horses that you mentioned, which were Sandman, Coal Battle and East Avenue. Her fourth choice was Tappan Street.
I thought the similarity of your picks and her picks was quite amazing. Keep in mind that my wife does absolutely no research on the Derby, just goes by the names.
Best of luck with your picks, Lynda.
Hi Bill
Thanks! You too.
Guess picking by the name is as good a method as any!
Good luck to your wife on her selections.
All of the colts working at CHD look really good. Not seeing anything out of place so far.
East Avenue was certainly full of pep and Sovereignty put in a strong gallop, hugged the curve nicely.
Thanks for the reply, Lynda
Are you there at Churchill to witness those workouts? If so, lucky you.
No, wish I was. Watch the mornings on X.
Sounds like the same thing my wife does. She hit the Kdby exacta 2 years in a row a few years back Goes by name recognition.
Hey ChiefsCrown
Please let us know your wife’s exacta wager for this year. 🙂
Will do! I know of one she’s playing….Journalism / Publisher. U know where that one is going.
The other i don’t know of yet…I’ll divulge later.
Will do! I know of one she’s playing….Journalism / Publisher. U know where that one is going.
Oaks Day will have a Thorpedo Anna/Cavaliere showdown…. (LA Trionne)…
And Free Like a Girl is once again entered in a very tough race.
What race is she entered?
I read a couple days ago that she was going to Louisville for a rematch with Thorpedo Anna.
Wow! Thanks.
I’ll be very nervous. I love Free Like a Girl.
Have great respect for her. Hope will have soft landing after racing.
She is a wonderful mare! 2nd in the La Troienne last year. This should be a good one.
Am I correct in thinking Free Like a Girl is the leading LA-bred money earner? Feel like I read that, but cannot find it again.
Free Like A Girl is class personified! They’re asking too much, those two big gals are something else….
Cavaliere will make Anna earn it; Richi just flattered her form.
I failed to mention Sovereignty. Like with Mystic Dan, I think it was his effort in the Fountain of Yutes that was impressive. In the Florida Derby, I don’t think his team had him dialed and we know he had a new jock probably with instructions to keep him clear of trouble and bring him home safe. I think he’s a real threat with a good trip. He won’t be as far off as the the other closers and that bodes well if the pace is not as blistering as many are saying it is going to be.
Yutes! 😜 Yes, Sovereignty of course!
The casting of Pesci and Gwynn was a stroke of comedy genius.
Classic comedy. The kind that makes you laugh so hard you think you might die…or at least pass out.
Body function and pants funny
Yutes?
I haven’t heard that since “My Cousin Vinny”…
Joe Pesci…”two yutes”
Fred Gwynne….”did you say yutes?”
Pesci…”yeah, two yutes”
Gwynne…”what is a yute?”
Classic.
There’s selecting the horse you think is the most likely winner and there’s the horse on whom you would place a win bet on Derby day. It could be the same horse. The consensus choice is, of course, Journalism. He’s being given a 25% chance of winning, at least at Caesars. Here are the sportsbook’s odds (Thursday, reported by HRN) on Derby probables at 20-1 and lower:
Journalism 3-1
Sovereignty 7-1
Sandman 8-1
Burnham Square 11-1
Tappan Street 12-1
Luxor Cafe 12-1
Rodriguez 12-1
Grande 15-1
Citizen Bull 16-1
Tiztastic 20-1
Baeza 20-1
Maybe you don’t need to bet on Derby day because you have live future wagers. But which of the above 11 do you think offers the greatest value?
I think Baeza will be less than 20-1 if he gets into the Derby.
After post positions are drawn next Saturday, William Hill closes futures and opens fixed-odds wagering…
Until then, the more likely it is that he’ll get in, the lower his odds will be.
You would get more than 3-1 on the day of, for Journalism! Steer clear of two-week futures! Maybe Ridriguez will be lower but every other horse—wait till day of, you’ll get your price!
By the way—Journalism worked good this morning….galloping out strong..
Fierceness was 3-1 and he had two clunkers in his last four. Do you think J will be as high as 4-1 Angel of Empire, who had “only” a two-race win streak after a loss in an ungraded stakes? As high as the 4-1 Epicenter, who finished second in the G3 Lecomte prior to two wins?
Essential Quality is the best comparison to Journalism. He was 10 cents short of 3-1, and he didn’t show the figures that J shows.
I think J will be the 9/2 favorite….
J has Rispoli—heretofore a turf jockey….Essential Quality was the 2yo Ecliose Award winner—and he prepped well—I expect J will be a good price—I already have his (early) Futures price—I like him a lot….
I have him in the FW, too. I’d be shocked if he went off at 9-2, unless he looks lackluster in the mornings. That’s unlikely, though.
Oh, and J walloped last year’s juvenile champ, so there that, too.
Dream on
Luxor Cafe, followed by Rodriguez and Grande. If Baeza got in and you got 20-1, great, but I think he would become the ‘wise guy’ horse, so I guess you got value. Currently I think the ‘wise guy’ horse will be Tappan Street due to winning the Florida Derby and finishing ahead of Sovereignty.
I think the wise guys will be working overtime with this field.
i’ll take the West Coast Super. Journalism at 3-1 is a steal.
I don’t think Bob will have Rodriguez send with Citizen Bull—Rodriguez drew the rail for The Wood Memorial, they were sending all the way—I do not expect them to send, in two weeks….
Maybe he’ll tell the riders, “Whoever breaks the best, let him have it.”
Professor Gordon Jones…..has passed, 95 years….
Sorry to hear that….RIP !
Last year’s Derby Superfecta was 3–2–11–4…If memory serves—the one big gate is no longer bad for inside draws—they aren’t what I hope for—but they have a chance now….
Matthew, the 1 post is now in the 3 post of yesteryear so add 2 to the inner 4 posts. So post 3 starts the better posts while the outer posts are about 2 in from the older gate.
20 is 18, 19 is 17 and so ion.
Hey kids, get your coffee cup filled and head out to youtube and type in Kentucky Derby Workouts. Lots of great footage of Derby and Oaks runners available. Best time of year because of this type of coverage now. Take advantage of it. Sovereignty, Publisher, Sandman, Tiztastics. Lots of fun. And interviews of trainers as well. My heart really wants Steve Asmussen to break his Derby maiden and what a story if he does it with a maiden in Publisher. There is the story Steve that would be a blast to write about.
As for my picks right now, this field has several horses coming into this race off of improvements. Last year what convinced me was not the last prep race but Mystic Dan’s move in the Rebel. I was able to overlook his ARK derby knowing that if he ran back to the his Rebel, it was enough to win it. Journalism and Final Gambit have my attention as of now, and I really like Burnham Square’s effort in the Bluegrass. But this is a very competitive year, and as many have said, the guy who gets the best trip is going to win. I’m not ruling out American Promise either. Yes it was a one turn race, yes he beat nobody but he did what a superior horse should do in that situation, he demolished that field and ran with very good speed to the wire. Let’s watch him in the a.m. at Louisville and see how he looks. He’s a beast to look at and I will be looking at that coat as well. The Kentucky Derby workout show is also fun to get a peak at these guys in the A.M.
Nice post, El. All the colts (and gelding!) you mentioned have plenty of positives. Some more than others. 😉 Asmussen will eventually win a derby. He’s had 26 entries and only one was a favorite. That was Epicenter, who finished second to the surprising Rich Strike. One week to the draw, and the excitement builds!
I can’t imagine how Asmussen felt as his chance to win went up in smoke. IF Rich strike doesn’t get in that race, I hit the super. But I still think Asmussen felt that punch in the gut more than I did. Ugh!
It is certainly a special kind of feeling when your horse gets beat by one that you didn’t even know was in the race!
I laughed. Stated fifteen years ago he will never prevail in Derby.
Comment intended for El Kabong.
Obviously you don’t. But,then you’re only one on planet who never made an error. SMH
Mike, you need to make more sense in your retorts. Any sense, really.
Did Asmussen pass on?
Good one! So…did Asmussen pass on?
Thanks for the reminder, El Kabong. The Morning Works show is such fun.
I agree El Kabong, American Promise is a beautiful chestnut beast, out of Justify, our last Triple Crown hero, his works have been exceptional. Don’t forget about the gift that the Japanese are giving us this year in Luxor Cafe, out of another Triple Crown hero, American Pharoah.. He has won traveling left and right and in very large fields. This group is ripe for the picking.
Most years I have a naive sense that I just might have the winner. This year I am more prepared to lose than in most years. That said, I can’t wait for Post draws and more workouts.
El Kabong, no doubt you have watched the Bill Mott and Steve Asmussen interviews on YouTube. Bill Mott gave Sandman very high praise along with Journalism – especially the race before the Santa Anita Derby. Steve Asmussen stressed that Tiztastic has improved his speed dramatically over the past couple of months. I felt both interviews were quite telling.
Personally I think Journalism’s best effort was in the SA Derby. Better field, and better test, mostly because there was some sabotage going on to pin him on the rail and take him out of his game. It didn’t work. He showed real patience and professionalism in not wasting energy. Made his move when the opportunity came and finished well against better horses than those in the San Felipe. Baeza really tested him which is always good. I’m keeping an eye on Tiztastic. He didn’t like the surface at Oaklawn but obviously loved the conditions at FG. If he likes CD he may show up strong. Would love to know what tracks resemble Churchill? I know they recently changed, improved the surface at CD. More uniformity of depth and more bounce with the new mix.
Follow up on Tiz. He did not seem to care for something today in his work. If it’s the surface, he’s a toss. Publisher on the other hand looked very comfortable keeping Tiz in his hip pocket.
El Kabong, as you probably saw/heard on the Morning Works Show the Tiztastic- Publisher workout was a replica of their Fair Grounds works, according to an informed source. Asmussen is obviously trying to teach/improve Tiztastics style of running.
I never get too carried away with what some are saying- they are trying to provide entertainment more than anything else. Ha ha
What concerned me most in the Santa Anita Derby was that Umberto Rispoli had difficulty keeping out of trouble. In the Kentucky Derby he’s going to have 4 times the difficulty unless he gets an outside post.
Not sure about the surface now but last year in the Street Sense Stakes Sovereignty, Tiztastic, and Sandman all ran well on the surface at Churchill Downs.
For those interested, at Randwick today with glorious weather there is the running of the 1 million Group 1 Champagne Stakes, the last leg of the 2 year old Triple Crown, and the 1.5 million Group 1 All Aged Stakes.
The Champagne Stakes will be run at 1 am Saturday morning New York time and the All Aged Stakes will be run 1:40 am.
I like State Visit by Redoute’s Choice with J Mac aboard for the Champagne but does have the outside post which is not favourable here and we’re staying with J Mac on Broadsiding by Too Darn Hot for the All Aged Stakes.
If you watch all the races at Randwick you might just roll into the Kentucky Derby and Oaks Morning Works Show with the help of a few coffees or two. Ha Ha Enjoy the Easter racing and best of luck.
State Visit charged home but too late, coming 4th. By the way, the Australian Champagne Stakes was first run in 1861 compared to the US Champagne Stakes first run in 1867.
Oh, yes, by the way Nepotism won the Champagne Stakes.
Davids, thanks for the updates. Anything good coming up next weekend? I’ll set my recording, accordingly.
No, Ms Blacktype the flat racing season is coming to an end for Melbourne and Sydney now, the next Group 1 races are not until the end of July. There is the famous Warrnambool Steeplechase races, known as ‘the bool,’ in Victoria while in NSW there are various country meets.
However, don’t worry Group 1 races simply move to Queensland and South Australia so there is plenty of action to whet the appetite until the pendulum swings back to Melbourne and Sydney again.
Not to forget, the English 2,000 Guineas and 1,000 Guineas will be run the same weekend as the Kentucky Derby – Oaks. Saturday for the colts and Sunday for the fillies.
Nepotism should be disqualified for unethical behavior.
Ha ha it’s funny how the disease is in every sphere.
Davids, Caravel foaled a gorgeous colt by Frankel ( her first foal).
Many eyes will be following this baby for sure.
Unlike most of his progeny this baby does not have his blaze.
Caravel is one of my favorites, and my daughter just loved her. On Oaks Day in 2023, I made sure to be early to carpool so I could get my daughter. We drove just off of school grounds, then pulled over and watched Caravel win the Unbridled Sydney on my phone. That day, along with one other when I picked her up to see the partial eclipse while listening to Dark Side of the Moon, are our best ever carpool memories! Otherwise, the carpool experience gets 0 stars: do not recommend, Hell-adjacent.
Looks like Caravel is being a good momma! He looks like a pretty big colt, esp. out of a maiden mare.
I have enjoyed all the footage of Caravel in England. It’s so nice to be able to follow our favorite mares in their next careers. I read that Resolute Racing plans to breed her to Dubawi this year. Guess they’re getting in the best turf breedings they can think of while she’s abroad!
If she comes home, I would favor Not This Time (or even Cogburn) for the 2026 breeding. True Nicks gives those “C,” but I like no inbreeding through 5 a whole lot.
Smart decision to breed her to the best before she comes home.
So enjoy following the mares, sometimes as much as the stallions.
Cody’s Wish is throwing some really nice babies too.
Lynda, there is still Siyouni and Wootton Bassett, Caravel could be bred to and St Mark’s Basilica has his first foals running this year. Coolmore are hoping that St Mark’s Basilica will be there Galileo replacement- high hopes.
Absolutely!
Thanks Lynda, do you know if the colt will race in Europe or the US?
Hi Davids
John Stewart has not made any announcements to that effect that I zm aware of.
Personally would like to see him race in Europe.
Lynda, I think he might start in Europe and we’ll see what happens from there. John Stewart wants to be an international figure. Good luck to him.
I’m disappointed that Grande will only have one workout, 3 weeks after his last race, and at Keeneland. The connections probably still harbor resentment toward CD over Forte. But it’s still odd not to go to the Derby track when you’re almost there anyway, they probably got the stones out of the dirt later that year. Grande was gaining a substantial following. Maybe as Steve H. speculated, the race took a lot out of him.
Too slow by KD standard.
There are many forms of handicapping. It is expected that handicappers will stick with what works for them.
One form of handicapping that hasn’t been widely practices is trend handicapping. It probably isn’t a concept that is appealing to most. Trends can start and end without notice. This makes trend handicapping grossly a hit and miss and without a structure.
As previously highlighted, there are currently three noteworthy trends –
No post time favorite has emerged the winer of the last 6 KD
None of the last 5 KD winners won their last k prep
The A P Indy broodmare line has asserted its dominance in the major dirt races.
I have highlighted that the BCC. Saudi Cup and Dubai WC were won by an entrant whose dams was sired by an AP Indy line stallions. The next major dirt race on the calendar is the Kentucky Derby. The broodmare line is likely to be represented by 4 starters. How formidable are the four?
American promise – Only likely KD starter that set a NTR in a 9F pep.
Final Gambit – Only likely starer covered the last 3F of a 9F Prep in 36 plus.
Sovereignty – Only likely entrant to break its maiden in a graded stake.
Tiztastic – Only entrant with 2 win 10 days apart and a victory over 9 1/2F.
These four stand alone with their individual achievements. I content this is more than a formidable quartet and it appears the A P Indy broodmare line has an excellence chance of continuing the trend of being associated with the winner of a major dirt race.
Bob has a ginormous three year old named Goal Oriented—remember that name—he looked awesome, in a work with Privman….this is a seriously good horse….look for after the Triple Crown….
Thanks for the info. Gonna add him to my watch list. Looks as though he’s not the typical need the lead speed ball from that barn. Plus he ran a legit time on what I belive was a dull and tiring track at SA this meet.
In today’s work, at Oaklawn Park, American Promise went 7 furlongs, from the gate, in 1:25.20, with the following splits: 22.00, 45.80, 57.80 and six furlongs in 1:11. To say that D. Wayne Lukas is getting American Promise cranked for a big effort in the Derby would be an understatement. He broke the track record with his winning effort in the Virigina Derby, going 9 furlongs in 1:46.41, drawing off by 7 3/4 lengths. The fractional times in that race were a very impressive, 23.12, 45.20, 1:08.39 and “coasted home” in 1:46.41.
I’m not that familiar with the Colonial Downs track as to how fast it plays vs other dirt tracks, but for American Promise to break the track record speaks volumes, IMO.
I seriously doubt that there’s another horse in this year’s Derby with more foundation than American Promise, which is not to say if that is good or bad. If he can replicate his Virginia Derby performance, he should be right there when the real running begins. I’m not on record as saying he’ll win the Derby, but I consider him a must include in the exotics, especially the superfecta. Just something to ponder.
Hi Bill, remember Colonial was a one turn race. That said, American Promise is an impressive physical in the mold of Justify. Rodriguez and American Promise will probably be leading the parade. Both trainers recognize the advantages of being in the front of the pack. See 2002.
Hey Jerry
I agree, both colts will be on the engine early, and throughout. The big question is, will they be able to hold off the closers, approaching the wire? We’ll see.
Virginia Derby is a one-turn 9f race on a 1.5-mile dirt track.
Prior to this year, it was a turf stakes.
Colonial Downs primarily cards turf races, including the Arlington Million, Beverly D Stakes, and the Secretariat Stakes.
Very few 9f dirt races are run at Colonial, and fewer with quality runners.
American Promise ran a nice race in the Va Derby, against a relatively weak field. But Render Judgment came back in the Blue Grass Stakes and finish 5th of 7 by four lengths. AP will have a 7-week layoff to the Derby, a decision that is probably the result of an immense improvement (T-graph, Equibase, Brisnet) in the Va Derby and the fear of a bounce.
The Virginia Derby was run as a new race and as such was awarded no grading status – just a Black Type. According to Colonial Downs the grass version of the Virginia Derby will be renamed and continue to exist. We will need to wait until the condition book is released by their administration.
Thank you
edit: Mr. Lukas stated American Promise’s final work will be on April 26th, at Churchill, which will be “much easier”.
If American Promise were to win the 2025 KD, and that’s a mighty big if, the “Coach” could ride off into the sunset with his 5th Derby winner. That has all the makings of a great back story this 89 yr. old trainer.
That’s my boy, Bill. Lukas has gone old school with the training of AP. In the likes of Tesio-Whittingham-Delp. If you have/want a champion you train them like one.
Maybe I am a dreamer but I believe in this horse. If he can run like his sire he could be very special!!!
Thanks for the reply, Downthestretchpp 0.01o
I agree with you, 100%. I’m looking forward to his morning line odds, which could be in the double digits.
Baeza only needs one more defection to get into the KY Derby. Madaket Road smartly being pointed to the Pat Day Mile. With Neoeqous now in, the derby pace just got hotter. Journalism is licking his chops, a lot of targets to run at now.
Fingers crossed that Baeza makes the Derby starting gate.
He might get in Bill. I know you have a KDFW on Baeza, IMO he’s a win contender if he gets in . Good luck 🍀 Bill.
Thanks, Joe P.
Good luck with your KDFW wager on Journalism, at big odds. I suspect that Journalism will be the favorite when the gates open. I plan on keying Journalism on top in several superfecta wagers. I boxed him with Sovereignty in a $50.00 exacta wager, in Pool 6. On Derby Day, I’ll key those two on top, in the first two slots, with three or four underneath in the 3rd, 4th and 5th slots, in a Super Hi-5 wager. I’ll wait for the post-position draw to determine which horses I’ll use in the 3rd, 4th and 5th slots.
Thanks Bill , good luck, hope we cash on Derby Day.
Bill – I bet $40 W on Journalism as well as a $50 EX Box with the Field. The Field from KDFW2 gives me 14 horses. I’m hoping Journalism draws well and brings his A game.
Your Superfecta Box- Luxor Cafe, American Promise, Sandman, Chunk Of Gold and Sovereignty…Subject to change lol
Blinkers off, Citizen Bull in the Kentucky Derby. Madaket Road running in the Pat Day Mile.
In his latest work Baffert had him running at another horse versus side by side. He looked very good going after him and finished nicely powering by him. I liked the workout !!!
Kentucky Derby
Maximum Field – 20
Distance – 10F
Racing Surface – Dirt
Oval Configuration – Features 1Turn mile as part of 2Turns race
Average Attendances – Around 155, 0000
All the above will be a fist time experience for all likely starters in the subject derby. Each likely starter will have to adapt to the above variables that pose numerous challenges.
Given he numerous first times elements and the challenges they pose. Why has the selection of the likely winner of the KD, been narrowed to TG, Beyer, Brisnett Timeform and Equibase assigned numbers?
The winers of the KD in the last 6 years, whether by being first pass the post or promoted from second, were not recipients of the highest assigned numbers from the group above. Consequently, few if any of the 6 were viewed as emerging the fastest or second fastest over the distance on Derby Day.
Despite the unreliability of these cherished numbers. The handicappers that have allowed themselves to be wedded to them, have filed to course correct.
When the premise of your comment is a lie or said in ignorance you flirt with deletion in order to avoid a confontation from better informed people than yourself. Selections narrowed to just speed figures? Did you just come up with a ridiculous comment like that just to be heard ? Whatever your convoluted thinking may be, that is an insult to every person who has ever made a selection on here, something which you dont have the nerve to do. Following months of criticizing others and after this comment, if you dont provide an actual selection pre-Derby all your comments post Derby will not be accepted
Steve thanks for all you do I personally vote for getting rid of c p
I personally vote he remains.
Same here…
Pletcher says that Grande will have just one workout before the KD, on the 25th at Keeneland (20 days after his Wood Memorial effort). What’s up with that?
Hmmm…. It’s not a race he does well in…
Yeah, wasnt crazy about that, I was startiing to think that race may have taken a lot out of him.
Grande is so lightly race (and now lightly trained) that I think he will tire, especially if he hits any traffic.
Happy Birthday Cigar!
Obviously no one remembers!
I do
You are only one. Unreal!
Weird
What’s ‘weird’ is an attention seeking little troll.
Say hi to Barbara.
❤️ What a Racehorse, and ambassador for the sport – and horses in general! It was such an honor to visit him at the Horse Park.
Saw him many times,including exactly two weeks prior to his passing with private visit. Received text he died prior to news from media.
I knew THAT was coming.
And I knew ‘Tony’ you would be lurking around the corner. Sad!
Morning Works show starts today (Friday), I believe. Love to see how the horses are progressing physically.
Also on a side note, I rode a horse for the first time in my life while on vacation in Scottsdale, AZ this past Sunday. My horse was named Zorro. I enjoyed it so much more than I expected, turned out to be the highlight of our trip. 🙂
That’s so cool!
Thanks Longshot Hunter, I was going to ask if anyone knew.
I was referring to your horseback riding. But the morning show is also cool. Giddy up!
The Workouts Show is live from 6:45 – 7:45 am. You can catch it on YouTube and I’m sure a video will be available for later viewing.
Thanks all!
I really like Journalism, Coal Battle, Flying Mohawk, Burnham Square, and Publisher. Now that I’ve said so, all of them will finish 9th or worse.
Rodriguez is intriguing. Comparison’s to Real Quiet seem fairly valid.
Quite a diverse assortment
Playing Coal Battle? Seems to me he’ll be the “wise guy” horse. Reminds me of Jackson Bend, maybe cause smallish type.
Agreed CC. Jackson Bend, like Coal Battle was all heart. He gave all.
I see that similarity too. Loved Jackson Bend.
Arlingtonfan, for sure.
ChiefsCrown, you’re right! I also loved Jackson Bend, and may be guilty of having “a type.”
You got 4 tosses in there LOL
Steve, I meant to thank you earlier for your mammoth effort but with trying to finish up work for an extended long, long weekend holiday it’s been a hectic week.
The three/four horses I like are Journalist, Sandman, Tiztastic and Baeza if he gets in but it’s Coal Battle I truly want to win and I feel he has a chance should all things go well for him.
With all the ins and outs this week I wonder if you would be shuffling some of your horses around now? There are so many need the lead types in the race now that it looks a perfect setup for quite a few mid pack/closer types.
The post positions this year look more important than ever. All the speed inside with 8 – 12 for the ones I like is the perfect draw for me.
Thanks again, Steve. Happy reflections over the Easter break to all.
Davids, I also remain a fan of Coal Battle. The way he gallops when he trains, with a collected type frame and an engaged core/back, reminds me of Catching Freedom last year. He collected a check!
He too Katy.
EDIT- Me.
Katy, Coal Battle is such a push button colt and with his size might be able to avoid a lot of the pitfalls that destroy the opportunities of many runners in the Kentucky Derby.
Coal Battle may not be a true 10f runner but being covered up and allowed to run at the optimum time ‘the little engine that could’ might just pull it off and the grand stand would erupt with joy.
In the Arkansas Derby you could see Coal Battle was over aggressive prior to the start. The heart is with him.
Burnham Square
Journalism
Sovereignty
Coal Battle
East Avenue
Sandman
I feel that the winner will be of these 6.
Of the two entries from Japan I prefer Daytona over Luxor based on pedigree.
Steve, in the past you have mentioned the “look of eagles”.
There are two in group that I think qualify for that description,
Admire Daytona and Sandman.
What I have seen so far reminds me of the great Man O’War who had the same look. Visually they are both tall, long legged Thoroughbreds that are reminiscent of the paintings of great Thoroughbreds in oil paintings.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is fully supporting horse racing, owners and breeders and is against decoupling.
Happy Heavenly Birthday to the great filly Ruffian.
Lynda, I saw Sandman this morning on track and I must say he is an impressive looking specimen. He has good confirmation and a very regal bearing. Anxious to see him work and to see what he draws for post position.
I’m getting antsy…… just two more weeks until the bell rings.
Hi Dewey, I too can feel the excitement starting to build!
Trying to watch as many gallops etc as possible.
Yes Dewey and Lynda, Sandman is a gorgeous colt and Tiztastic is quite a specimen as well.
Am I to believe that all the riding assignments for Derby mounts are set and that Flavien Prat is without a mount? The 2024 Eclipse Award Jockey is not riding in the Derby. C’est difficile a croire.
Just read that CDI reports that all current Derby contestants except Madaket Road have riders. First on the AE list, Built, also has no rider named.
Apparently Flavien Prat has committed to Baeza, if he gets in. Baeza sits 24th on the list. Baeza needs four drop outs before he can draw in. We’ll see.
Thanks Dewey. Espérons que Baeza entre dans la course.
Read on another site Dettori might be on Madaket Road, not confirmed yet.
Steve,one of the older “rules” of handicapping the derby was that,for a horse to win at a mile and quarter,he would have needed to finish in the top three in a mile and an eighth race in one of his previous two races.Do you hold to this or is it another relic of the past?
I don’t hold to anything anymore that doesnt pertain to the horses in this years race unless someone can provide an explanation why a theory is relevant. The horse who is best, fastest, and luckiest on this day will win whether they ran 1,2,or 3 in a 9f race or not. Tell me the reasons why they can’t win if they haven’t and I’ll listen.
The historical angles can be useful. The “unraced at 2” angle held for 136 years. Horseplayers who paid attention to it saved a lot of money over the years by not betting on otherwise top contenders. Whether or not those contenders lost because of being unraced at 2 is something we cannot know for sure. Nevertheless, it was reasonable to think that a derby runner was at a disadvantage without a foundation of at least one or two juvenile races. Times change, and new angles and methods are introduced.
A updated profile can be created of what it takes to win the derby. I have my own, and it helps to whittle down the large field so that traditional handicapping can then take over. Then I lose and wait for next year.
Sea Hero the 1993 KD winner didn’t satisfy the handicapping rule cited.
Correct!
CP, after Sea Hero, Charismatic and Mine That Bird broke that “rule,” too. All of them were 4th in their only 9f race. Nevertheless, just 3 in the last 32 derbies make it something to think about. A derby horse shouldn’t run badly at that distance.
Wasn’t Giocomo 4th in SA Derby?…
He was….Thunder Gulch too.
*TG was 4th….
Thunder Gulch won the Florida Derby in the penultimate prep.
It was so dufferent in that era….not just in terms of the graded stakes earnings, it was the scheduling of the preps too….Monarchos/Congaree ran Fla derby and then the wood e.g. Funny Cide ran Fountain of Youth, Wood Mem’l and then LA derby..etc
Yes, Dominic. Times change, and not always for the better. The extension of time between races is as counterproductive as the coddling of modern-day starting pitchers.
TG i believe was Florida Derby…
Yes Thunder did not run in SA Derby—that was the year Larry the Legend-Illinois bred beat Afternoon Deelights and Jumron….Jumron—the Portland Meadows colt was 2nd choice, in The Derby! He was injured, ran 4th and was retired….
It was a hard to close on…..Ferdinand…Alysheba…Thunder Gulch…Giacomo—all did well, at Churchill—after not getting there at Santa Anita….I had $45 to wager—and played three $5 win/place/show wagers….one was Giocomo—paid an even $500, if I remember correctly….my brother touted me on those SA closers…..
Giacomo was 3rd in the 9f Sham Stakes.
The Sham was the third race back. So, yes, he broke the rule too. Four of 32. Thanks.
He looked great that day….but then in the Blue Grass, his last prep before the derby, he ran forth….
Meant for Tony…
Disarm is entered in Saturday’s Oaklawn Handicap when he will make his second start as a five year old. Disarm is coming off of a disappointing 4-year-old season when he went just 1 for 5. If you can call a winner of over $1.3 million disappointing. We were always told that Disarm would love a mile and a quarter. But is he 0 for 3 at a mile and a quarter. 0 for 4 if you count the mile and three sixteenths of the 2023 Louisiana Derby. To be fair, Disarm did run second to Arcangelo in the 2023 Travers over a muddy track.
Disarm is 10-1 on the ML and should go off at every bit of it. He has failed to earn a triple digit BSF in his last six races and will have one of the trainer’s sons in the saddle. Hardly the big name that usually wins a $1.25million race. But maybe Steve Asmussen has found a sneaky good spot for Disarm. Maybe.
First Mission with Flavien Prat is the 2-1 ML favorite and will be going second race off the layoff. He’s proven at the Grade 2 level after his easy win over a soft field in last year’s Alysheba. But I wonder if we’ve seen the best of him?
The very popular and now six-year-old Skippylongstocking is 5-2 on the ML and could vie for favoritism with Irad Ortiz aboard. “Skippy” won this race last year but is coming off a pretty big number when he won the Challenger at Tampa.
Banishing has turned into a dynamo after going from Brendan Walsh to David Jacobson. Banishing has won 3 of 4 at Oaklawn this season but enters the race on short rest. Distance is a question, but he’s sharp as a tack.
Alexander Helios upset both Banishing and First Mission in the Razorback. But distance could be a problem at this level.
I’m going to take a shot with Disarm in a possibly sneaky good spot. He has a win over the track, 4 works since raced, and Keith James Asmussen is 2 for 2 on the horse. Hoping for 12-1 or 15-1.
I don’t know which of the two Asmussen sons is the better rider. Their stats are almost identical. Eric winning at 11% and Keith winning at 12%. They have almost the same number of mounts. Dad must deal the rides out fairly. But I notice that Steve Asmussen gives his best horses to bigger name riders. You have to appreciate the “family affair”.
I seem to recall when First Mission last ran—Oaklawn was favoring speed that day… the front runners finished in every exacta….the winner that day was half to Rombauer, Alexander Helios–he’s back, as well….
Manny Franco is at least a little bit interesting on East Avenue with Tyler Gaffalione recovering from injury. Franco may be owed a Derby after Covid ruined his best chance with Tiz the Law. I would argue that if that Derby was contested in the Spring as scheduled instead of the Fall, Tiz the Law would have won the race. I’m sure that the BB fanatics will disagree with my claim. But that’s the way I see it.
Let’s hope that Manny Franco can rate East Avenue off of Evan Almighty, American Promise, and possibly Baeza & Rodriguez. Those blinkers that they added were not needed. Maybe too much speed in this year’s Derby.
Unfortunately, when you miss your best chance in racing, it’s gone like a cool breeze. Never to come again. But Manny gets a shot on a speedy horse. Maybe he can seize the day. Possibly set it up for the closers. Post positions will tell a tale.
Totally in agreement with you on Tiz the Law. If not for the covid time frame he would have won the Kdby that year.
Finished my Derby analysis…
1) Journalism is the clear deserving favorite.
2) Final Gambit is the clear longshot play.
3) I can’t handicap international runners, but this is a really weak derby field imo, so I wouldn’t rule out Luxor Cafe and Admire Daytona.
Really weak? This might be one of the best crops I’ve seen since 2007 with the Street Sense, Hard Spun, and Curlin trifecta, amongst other memorable names like Scat Daddy, Tiago, and Nobiz Like Showbiz I’m sure some of them will prove to be stakes pretenders but I’m looking forward to what could be quite the competitive summer circuit. Time will tell.
This Baeza situation is a stain on the Derby. Really sad they reduced the point system after entries, yet the VA Derby gets full allotment going 1 turn with a field that lets face it, would have at best had a 25-1 shot in the SA Derby.
They started with published workouts with this horse way back in June 2024 and no apparent breaks in the pattern since. Obviously they did not feel he was ready to race until December and then it took 3 races to break his Maiden and really come around. Plenty of chances prior to the SA Derby to earn points but he just wasn’t up to it. How many points races did he skip? We will never know why that is, but it is what it is. Maybe credit the Trainer for getting him to where he is now but not pushing when he seemed to feel the horse wasn’t ready?
Scott, if Baeza doesn’t make the Derby,not the end of the world. Preakness maybe good fit.
Agree, just saying it doesn’t feel right finishing runner up in one of the 4 big preps races and not getting in.
If the Santa Anita Derby had run 4 horses instead of 5 Baeza would have lost another 20 or 25% of his points. He wouldn’t have been in the conversation, not even close to 4 out.
You’re right.
Read on TwinSpires site Flavian Prat is on Built. I’d say its a done deal. If so Catalano got an alpha rider and won the Kdby so to speak.
Baeza’s got to hope for 3 more to back out, i don’t see that happening.
They took points from the Santa Anita Derby….what were they thinking—they needed one filler colt….but even some eastern preps were lite—6 in Florida and 7 at Keeneland–5 at Santa Anita ….a race that produces Kentucky Derby winners….
always laugh at the complaining about comments on here…….its not the Magna Carta……RELAX
May I ask: Are you a war veteran or a veterenarian?
Neither. He’s pretending to be someone that used to frequent this site and HRN.
Why?
“Pro Vet” was a rude S – B. He thought he was a legend in his own mind. Did you forget the “bad signs” and the countless other idiotic comments he made? Not to mention he allegedly owned 10% of countless $5K claiming horses in Washington and No Cal.
His M.O. was easy to spot. This pretender is just that.
Sandman reminds me of Tapit Trice—he kicks….I don’t think he kicks well enough–some kicks ate better—-like Sierra Leone has a KICK! And he doesn’t always win….But if there’s a pace collapse we know Sandman will always have his kick! Somehorse is going to get a great trip….a great ride….Journalism is going to fetch around 9/2—with a good trip he could make that look like a gift..Rodrigue@ will fetch 10-1—-and Sovereignty 5-1…..one of those is going to get a good trip!
I like Sandman a lot. He’s one of my “finalists.” But I probably won’t have win action on him because DEEP closers in preps do not win Ky Derbies. And Sandman is a deep closer, as evidenced by being 13 lengths back after 4f in each of his last two races. Ky Derby winners that closed from very far back were not DEEP closers in their preps: Mage, Rich Strike, Orb, Mine That Bird, Street Sense, Giacomo, Monarchos, Grindstone. They were stalkers or within-eyesight closers in their last couple of preps.
Tony, I was revisiting Sandman’s races and Casse’s comments and basically, he said it wasn’t the intention for Sandman to be so far off the pace in the Rebel: “In my opinion, we lost the race, probably, in the first hundred yards. We got stuck behind McPeek’s horse (Hypnus) and made us farther back. We were hoping to be five or six lengths back. Instead we were 15. [Still] I think it was a great effort to only get beat by a couple of lengths.” In the AR Derby, it was obviously a freak pace set by Cornucopian & Speed King where they were in a world of their own & everyone else was just waiting for the pace to collapse. It became a “dream setup” for Sandman, as Steve said in his Week 10 notes. In the SW Stakes in Jan, Sandman had that terrible start out of the gate that sent him far back early. He still managed to work his way back into finishing second… Hopefully, the strategy is to keep him more forwardly placed in the Derby, he won’t encounter any big snafus and perhaps finally come into his own. Casse certainly seems to think so. He said, “I think you’re going to see a better horse in the Derby than you saw in the AR Derby. He’s been progressing every race, got very unlucky in a couple races, but you know what, that’s going to built character.” Crossing fingers!
Yes, Michelle, you keep reading that Sandman is supposed to be a late closer when in fact that has been caused by mishaps not design. Further to your comment above, Mark Casse also stated that Sandman has speed to get into good position and, moreover, Casse hopes that Sandman will be running mid pack in the Kentucky Derby.
Now that Owen Almighty has been re-entered in the Derby field, my $50.00 win wager on him, in Pool 6, at 48-1, is still alive. There’s been a lot of talk that he has distance limitations and has little chance of being competitive over 10 furlongs. One thing to keep in mind is his dam’s sire, Bayern, who wired the field in the 2014 BC Classic, going 10 furlongs in 1:59.88. With all due respect to Brian Lynch’s opinion that OA is distance limited, I don’t blame the owners for taking a shot at the Derby.
D. Wayne Lukas once stated, ” All horses can run a mile and a quarter, it’s just a question as to how fast they can get there”, or words to that effect.
If Prat is still looking for a mount in the Derby, he would certainly be a rider to consider.
I just heard that Javier Castellano will ride Owen Almighty in the Derby, and Manny Franco will ride East Avenue. Castellano was aboard Mage, the 2023 Derby winner.
True on Bayern but he destroyed Shared Belief out of the gate and that was definitely on purpose IMO.
The steward’s inquiry didn’t see it that way, no changes were made to the finishing order.
Because you couldn’t move the 4th place horse up. No chance that was coincidence and this is the same Bayern that finished DFL in the Travers and fell apart after 3/8 in the Met Mile 7 months later. Baffert special in the Classic for sure.
The same Bayern that ran dead last by 20 + lengths Travers Stakes, won the BCC by wiping out Shared Belief and lost 5 consecutive races to finish out his career.
15 race career with 6 **wins**, a 2nd and 3 thirds win 5 off the board finishes. As for his progeny, not much that would give anyone great confidence going into the KD.
Steve,
Curious to know your thoughts on owners strategies who have multiple horses in the race. Does East Ave get sent to speed up the pace which should help closers like Sovereignty? How does Baffert run his horses… individually with each horse given it’s best chance to win, or as a trio with one horse being advantaged?
Cheers!
I can’t understand why the same ownership would run 3 speed horses. East Avenue believe me is in it to win. It’s two different trainers and Godolphin dorsnt tell their trainers what strategy to use.
What joy. After examining all the ThoroGraph numbers and the Beyer trends, I have tossed exactly 5 horses from my projected Derby exactas and supers.
That said, I agree that the winner is most likely to come from Steve’s top three. Journalism is the best horse, Sovereignty has the strongest last-two TG pattern, and Tappan Street has the best last three progression for both TG and Beyer figs. While any of them can win, I’m not counting out Luxor Cafe, Sandman, Rodriguez, and even American Promise as win candidates. Perhaps the best bomb would be Final Gambit, but I would be shocked if he won.
I show disrespect by the volume of word in my posts. That’s a new one.
Steve,
I would appreciate your indulgence. Could you specify the number of words to which I am limited.
Fellow contributor Nelson might find same enlightening.
That is not what I said.
As long as you don’t keep writing the same thing ad nauseum I don’t care how much you write. But once you make your point, especially on your dislike of certain trainers and horses, leave it alone and go on to other things.it becomes stale and boring and all of your euphemisms for drugs and cheaters will result in deletions.
And I appreciate you always pointing out the Rankings that don’t pan out, even when due to injury like Keep it Easy. It makes me try harder the next time.
Steve, like the rest of us, you are entitled to be wrong occasionally. But you are so often dead on right!
Steve
The patience that you exhibit goes above and beyond the call of duty.
Occasionally, we contributors post comments that are off topic, irrelevant, inaccurate, or just downright boring. I’m certainly guilt of that from time to time. Frankly, it’s a mystery to me how you put up with our flaw’s week after week. The bulk of your regulars look to you for guidance on the Derby trail and sincerely appreciate your efforts going down that path.
Thank you, Steve.
Thanks Bill there are no flaws. I appreciate anyone who takes time to read my columns and comment. When first posted I prefer the comments to reflect the the subject matter but I don’t insist on it. In general if I can bring people from around the world to come together as s community they can talk about what they like, of course within reason
Thanks for the reply, Steve.
Your points are well taken.
I’d appreciate your thoughts on Owen Almighty re-entering the Derby, (Thoro-Graph pattern, distance limitations, replacement rider, running style, etc., etc.) and will he be listed somewhere in your Week 13 Derby Rankings?
Many thanks, Steve.
What I told him is that he’s disrespectful to readers because of the numerous ERRORS (e.g., typos, lack of clarity, fast and loose with facts) in his lengthy posts. Either he doesn’t understand English or he just wants to stir the pot. I think it may be both.
I wouldn’t try to analyze him. As long as he doesn’t insult anyone or get personal in any way he can do what wants. Its up to each individual to read it or ignore it. He’s been criticizing me for more years than you can imagine. If he gets his kicks criticizing other peoples selections and playing victim let him have his fun.
Anyone who dishes it out should also take it. It can be fun until it gets out of hand or goes on too long. But if someone posts something publicly, their comment is open for discussion, criticism, or even condemnation when warranted.
STEVE, you’ve fostered a very special community. Posts by the vast majority are interesting, informative, and in good humor. I hope it continues for a very long time.
I don’t mind that you stalk me on this forum. I’m waiting for you to post something, anything, that is reasonably intelligent. You can do it!
Lol. Stalking? Good one! Like when lurking around the corner when discussing Stein with another reader?
It was an actual discussion, Einstein. Maybe you should just give up. This is too easy.
Must be tough tripping over yourself attempting to be on point 24/7. You have as much tact as a sledge hammer. I’m well within my rights with reply regarding counter.
👍
Aren’t you due to write about the year Improbable, Game Winner and Roadster all ran out of the money? It’s been a few months….and they paid $3.2 million. for Barnes, and everybody except YOU thought he had talent….it’s been at least three weeks—time to remind everyone who might like Rodriguez! And Grande—for “The Enhancer”—I’ve a question …if you truly believe his horses are “enhanced”….why wouldn’t you bet them? They are “enhanced”….
Counter, Mr. Haskin is the ‘only straw that stirs the drink’ here. My advice, disregard others questioning your skill set.
Steve, thank you so much. It is exciting to see all 20 in the rankings, even as a fluid list at this point. This group is one of the most baffling I can remember, so I know that this has truly been a labor of love for you. I definitely appreciate it!
I can’t wait to see these colts work. Watching the morning show was when I really started to take both Mystik Dan and Forever Young seriously last year, and they did pretty well!
Do you think Junior Alvarado will make it back onto Sovereignty?
I believe he will be back
I revisited the videos of Final Gambit’s four career starts. In three of those starts he experienced an incident after the gates opened. Ironically those 3 raced resulted in his best performances. The sole race in which he broke with the field and with no gate incident, he was beaten by a 44/1 shot. Although being positioned in mid-pack, his signatory explosive late race burst was absent.
The more I review the current top 20. I am inclined to conclude that Final gambit will enter the best equipped to win the KD. Many might default to the usual conclusion regarding my opinions. No! have not reached a new level of craziness.
Many fancied KD entrants have been impacted my one of more incidents that significantly diminished their chance of wearing the rosses covered garland.
The winning chances of the likes of Essential Quality, Lookin At lucky, Classic Empire and Ice Box were severely compromised because of one or more incents either at the start or during the race.
Three of Final Gambit’s 4 races involved incidents that led to the giving up of ground at the start and significant ground loss on the final turn. Those are the kind of trip related information that is seen on the resumes of the defeated. In fact, a gate related incident contributed to the colt defeat on debut albeit on turf.
In the Nit This Time’s colt last two starts he gave up ground at the start. His rider seemed unperturbed and settled the colt at the rare of the field whilst surveying the pace upfront.
The rider knew very well that the best path to victory for ton of horse he was feeling in his reins, was as wide as necessary on the final, turn to ensure an unimpeded lane run. He just piloted the colt into the clear at the top of the lane and let colt use his big engine do the rest.
If Final Gambit faces the starter in the KD and there is an incident at the after the break. He is well rehearsed for that. If has to be piloted 8 to 9 wide for his lane run. He is also well rehearsed for that. If he is required to rev up his big engine to secure victory. He is also well rehearsed fir that.
It’s not often there is a likely KD starter that can claim – Been there overcome that relating to incidents
Final Gambit has a good jockey. The only known flaw he has shown is recognizing the whereabouts of the finish line at Churchill Downs.
Gambit, Gold and Grande, the 3 Gs will be on my ticket this year. I concur with the assessment that the big run down the stretch will be from an outside lane, and Gambit will run down all the late closers who will be to his left. They won’t notice him until it is too late. Remember the call of the stretch run of Animal Kingdom!
I am sometimes baffled by a few of Steve’s rankings. I know they are significantly influenced by TG Numbers. But sometime those number must be set aside as they are superseded by more pertinent factors.
I was baffle by the assignment of ranking to Captain Cook and Keep It Easy. IMO neither had merited inclusion. But there are things way above my pay grade.
Grande ranked at #4 is baffling. He finished 2nd by 3 1/2L in a swiftly run Wood. Immediately behind him 1 3/4L away was Passion Rules. If Passion Rules had finished 2nd, would he have been ranked at #4? I hardly thin so!
The TP trainee is getting a lot of support. But I cannot see in him what others do. I consider him a slow colt who take forever to complete a stride. His victory in the KD is contingent of those in front in the lane, decaling to walk. Even then he will likely be the fastest walker.
There are much faster likely entrants ranked below that also have more appealing resumes.
It’s horse race and on any given 1st Saturday in May any result is possible.
Your analysis Steve is always spot on. I can’t disagree with any of your points.
This is a very hard Derby for me to make sense of.
I never liked betting lightly raced gorses, especially in the Derby.
But here we are & this what we got. I believe it would be foolish to leave Journalism out of the exotics. He is just too good. If I can 7/2 or 4-1 on win then it is worth a sizable win bet. Plus put some win bet money on Sovereignty, Sandman, East Avenue & Rodriguez,
I will mix up the exotic selections which includes Baeza, Burnham Square & Rodriguez as well.
What the heck, its only money.
My feelings in a nutshell are simple, with a 20 horse field anything can happen. Plus its 10 furlongs. Its a good idea to bet the closers & a couple stayers.
Good luck to everyone………………
There is one likely starter that has on its resume information that reflect he is the most rehearsed for incents, which makes him a must use wager.
Your task is to find this likely entrant and be guided accordingly.
Speaking of lightly raced and questionable horses, Gosger seems like he could win the KD if he got in, with his 20 points. I thought the Lexington Stakes told a complete story, unlike some races which cry out for a sequel. He held position, changed lanes outward, passed horses and accelerated along the rail to top things off. If he goes in the Preakness, he may be one of the favorites.
Hey Steve:
Just catching up on recent comments and news. While taking a break on a recent road trip, I decided to add the most recent Thoro-Graph figs for the leading contenders to my personal Derby list. One I can’t find in this post (or the three previous ones) is TIZTASTIC’s Thoro-Graph figure for the Louisiana Derby. Could you post it here? Thanks (and many more) for such an brilliantly written Derby trail this year.
I’m almost sure that Tiztastic was awarded a 3.75 fig for his victory in the La. Derby.
Thank you, Jim.
Ms Blackmore, as posted below, on YouTube John Stettin from Past the Wire goes through the whole Kentucky Derby field with all their past Thoro-Graph speed ratings and pattern. He knows his stuff.
Search for “The Kentucky Derby by the Thorograph Numbers and Patterns”
Really great tip, Davids. I watched the entire show. That fellow Stettin looks like a classic wise-guy horse player (and also like Steven van Zandt in the Sopranos). I also bought Thorograph’s Derby/Oaks numbers package, so I’m wading through that right now. I see interesting correlations between TG patterns and Beyer patterns, so maybe by looking at both, I’ll be able to winnow my win candidates down from 6 or 7 to a mere 3 or 4.
Yes, Ms Blacktype, the lads on Past the Wire are pretty savvy and John Stettin is a colourful character, well known, and is a highly successful serious horse player.
13…12…9 1/2…7…7 3/4…7…7 1/4…3 3/4
Thanks Steve, Davids and Jim for all your insight. I’m thinking these numbers can help me expand the number of horses I can toss out of the running as potential winners (though not, obviously, from the exotics). In a “normal” race with 7 or 8 starters, I imagine they also help point to the most likely winner. That said, at least 6 or 7 of the entries have truly spectacular last-out T-G figures (2 or less). From what Steve has written, it sounds like the figure pattern of the last two or three starts can be just as important as the lowness of the last or best number. Now how to decide among the most promising six or seven? Much to munch on in the next two weeks.
In addition to my wager on All others, I have wagers on Est Avenue, Final Gambit and Render Judgment.
East Avenue continues to dominate my thoughts. The top likely starters fall into the categories of mid-pack and closers. Therefore, a classy high cruiser with a stamina pedigree could just freak on Derby Day and show the field a clean set of hooves.
Is Rodrigues a classy high cruiser capable of the above? Or does that distinction belong to East Avenue? Let’s examine which of two the possess more class.
Rodrigues is ranked at #5 just ahead of East Avenue. He led on debut and faded marginally to finish 2nd over 6 1/2F. He was a next out winner over 8F. His 3rd start was in the Bob Lewis (G3) where he finished 2nd. A 3rd and 1st place finishes would follow in his two subsequent graded stakes appearance. He represents a model of consistency.
East Avenue recorded an impassive wide margin victory on debut over 6F. He followed up with a similarly impressive win in his graded stakes debut in the Clairborne Breeders Futurity (G1) A 9th, 10th & 2nd place finish would be the results in his subsequent 3 graded stakes appearance. A troublesome decline from an impressive first two starts.
If the colts first two starts is used for comparison. East Avenue would emerge miles ahead in the class/potential category. There after Rodriguez is miles ahead.
The final 9F preps contested by both makes for interesting analysis. Up to the first 6F they are about even with times of 1:11 plus. There after Rodriguez 36.90 and East Avenue 38.37 for their respective final 3F, suggest East Avenue isn’t in the same class as Rodriguez. It merits nothing that the BG was contested on rain affected and drying out surface and its impact times is immeasurable.
Rodriquez appears to be the high cruiser that can slip the field. But the big question is. Will the East Avenue of distance past show up on Derby Day?
The 1:10 plus East Avenue recorded on debut is on par with the average 6F split of the KD. The 1:36 plus he recorded in the futurity is on par with the 8F average of the KD.
Given that he was a handful to pull up after the wire of the Futurity. The average final 2F split of the KD is 25 plus. This should be well within is grasp, to achieve the average winning time of 2:02 plus for the KD. If a bigger and stronger version the East Avenue of the Futurity shows up Derby Day. The closers better bring their A game as they will need it.
I am a big fan of unraced mares. They are amongst the biggest producers of exceptional champions. East Avenue is the product of an unraced mare. So too is Citizen Bull, Sovereignty and Tiztastic.
Is there any data to support your contention that unraced mares are “among the biggest producers of exceptional champions”?
Counter Point, I too am quite interested in East Avenue. Going into the Blue Grass, I was of the belief that it might well serve as a springboard race towards a Preakness win as I thought he was in desperate need of a tightener after throwing in the towel to Magnitude in the Risen Star. I’ve also had quite a bit of betting success with the 2nd-time Blinkers angle. My guess was that he would be a bit short for the Blue Grass and that a tiring 3rd or 4th would keep him out of the Derby on points, but set him up perfectly for the Preakness.
As it turns out, only the honest and well trained Burnham Square was able to wrangle him in at the wire. I’ll be following along closely what Mr. Haskin and others have to say about his works and appearance at Churchill as I am very intrigued by what should be a nice price. I’m already hearing buzz about a pace melt down which will likely present a zig while others zag opportunity.
I don’t know how others feel, but from my perspective, this is the most confusing Derby trail that I’ve witnessed in recent memory. Which colts have the necessary points, who is in, who is out, who is back in, etc., etc. There has to be a better alternative to the “point system”, IMO. What that is, I don’t know. From my understanding, the point system was initiated to allow more colts from Japan and Europe to qualify for the Derby.
So, unless some other plan is adopted, it appears we’re stuck with the point system.
With the recent announcement that Owen Almighty has reentered the Derby, it doesn’t appear that Baeza will make the Derby field.
A DD prospect has to be good enough to secure the requisite points to make the cut. There are plenty KD preps. Trainers and connections just have to determine which prep is most likely to secure entry points continent on potential level.
Bill, the point system was not created to allow for more foreign-raced horses. It was created to replace the unpopular system based on earnings in graded stakes races.
A nose winner at Meydan got in….
Meaning….?
Spot on Tony D. Prior to the points system, certain trainers would enter “sprinters” with enough graded stakes earnings to help their stablemate(s) wear down the “sacrificial lambs” and legitimate competition caught up in the frenzy.
Yes, Z, that “tactic” was common. But non-rabbit sprinters made the cut, too. The points system has flaws, but it’s much better than earlier qualifications.
…and this i think is worse! Graded earnings system was working fine…so, of course, they fixed it…thoughts?
I think that, if you liked having derby runners that amassed enough qualifying earnings in big-purse sprints and one-turn mile races at the risk of excluding 3yos that performed well in true derby preps, you might have a different notion of what the derby should be. We all have our preferences.
They could easily program the system to include only graded stakes at a mile or more…the point system to me has always been worse…
The point system was put in place to place more emphasis on 3 year old form and to keep out 2 year old’s that were better at sprinting and earning money and getting in that way. It also is used to help out certain tracks by giving them “Point Races”.
Ok…we can limit also to 3yo season only…the point system is a win and youre in…you only ever have to run in just 1 race to get in…and thats yhe biggest flaw….no japane, no uae etc…..come here, run in graded preps for 3yos only….solved…
BB doesn’t have any success with his Wood winners in the KD. See below:
2001 – Congaree – 3rd
2006 – Bob and John -17th
2025 – Rodriuez ??
What significance should be given to Rodriguez’s fast Wood time?
2022 –
Mo Donegal and Zandon battled in the Wood to final time of 1:47.96. They finished 3rd & 5th.
If the slow Grande emerged Rodriguea’s best opponent in the Wood. His prospect of winning the KD is remote at best. He is no Bodemiester and that very fast colt enjoyed an uncontested lead and was caught. There are several II Have Another in the field.
Congaree ran a good 3rd, In The Derby—he was better at 9 fur than ten,Bob and John wasn’t that good….a two-horse pattern is not very large….Rod looked pretty solid, so did Grande….With Owen back in I think they want the front–Rod can sit off.. ..the blinkerscgange made a big difference in his race—after making a big difference in his last couple of works…he came back looking strong….
Of the SA Derby…Wood Memorial…Arkansas Derby…Florida Derby…Louisiana Derby….and Bluegrass—the final six big preps—Rodriguez was the one who had “no opponents”—he ran his race by himself—this is the horse I fear the most..
I like his resume, but the fact that he faced a weak field and won gate to wire tells me he may not be a solid contender.
Except that he did it effortlessly. He is a late foal and has more room to improve going for him.
Late foal. Rod still developing mentally and physically. Beast mode at some point this year when it’s all put together. KD could be that day if learns to relax.
Going to tell you Jeff what you stated about Coal Battle.Rodriguez doesn’t have it, at least for the Derby.
Matthew, I’m with Tony, Rodriguez, if he actually gets the lead, will not be sailing solo around the Twin Towers he will be ‘hen pecked’ all the way for 9f then Journalism, Sandman et al will swallow him alive.
Congaree was my derby horse. Ran a mile that day in 1:35 flat….good enough to win any 1 mile race in north america that day….but thr stretch run staggered him as he came to the wire…nice horse…
I don’t see that Owen Almighty did any worse than Citizen Bull in his final prep and he had good races before that. Maybe that’s what the owners are thinking.
Owen Almighty has a good shot. He is a good horse that might have not liked Keeneland as a lot of horses do not. A lot of bloggers think he is a distanced limited horse. I don’t see him winning the Derby but if he did I would not be surprised. I would put him in the High teens to mid 20 range for odds.
That’s low odds for him. I’m also surprised to see you think this, I’ve always liked him and thought he showed stamina in his previous races, to keep going as fast as he did for the whole race.
Way back in the day if you like a horse that is capable of winning then bet him. Who cares what the odds are. A win is a win, regardless if its 10-1 or 20-1.
Heck, I would take 10-1 all day every day,
My dad & some of his buddies were great handicappers.
My dad on more longshots at Santa Anita, Hollywood Park & Del Mar then anyone I ever met.
Other than Journalism, I feel he is a top 7 horse. If he is higher odds than he will be thrown in on a few Supers and Trifectas for me.
I wonder how many were opining that Rich Strike et al didn’t deserve to be in the Kentucky Derby? It is, what it is. The horse with the best trip inevitably wins.
Owen Almighty might just get a golden trip along the fence then bursts through at the final furlong to use his speed and snatch the roses. 19 horses get beaten in the Kentucky Derby.
His trainer doesn’t think he’s a Derby horse.
Eric, I tend to agree with you. He wouldnt be the first horse to steal away on the front end. BUT,for me, I just can’t bet a horse who ran last in his final prep and I can’t stop hearing Brian Lynch tell us he’s too short…2 big strikes!
Neither should be in there….(in my opinion)…
Matthew, if CDI wanted a purist best 3 year olds race running in May they would limit the field accordingly. It’s a Wild West rodeo. Yahoo cowboy!!
The best horse usually wins, os is close–the tenth furlong is yhe great separation…-
Even better when it’s a 12 horse field max though, Matthew. If CDI wanted to maximize its profits on the Kentucky Derby and same with the punters for that matter, lol, then you can’t really complain. It is, what it is.
I hate being a killjoy but I’d rather see the obvious best 10 run, like a Cox Plate, than twice that for a bigger payout. To each his/her own.
It’s the one race where you could make a bundle if moolah! If they ever were to drop it to say…14—you’d be getting horses peaking too early—just to make the cut….there’s always an unintended consequence….
Davids, I agree. Twenty entries ensures that the luckiest horse usually wins. I think that 14 entries in the max for a fairly run race.
Tony, arguably, the Kentucky Derby has the most monumental enthralling build up to a race anywhere in the world but then the actual race descends in to a mass scramble in a chook pen, fetchers flying hither and thither. Shame really.
“Chook” is Australian slang for chicken.
Australians have the best slang.
The 20 horse field despite its flaws, presents the greatest wagering opportunity of the year…..w 20 horses and the fave gets beat you don’t have to get to deep “in the rough” to get into the big money…
Yes, the wagering opportunities are plentiful. But most of us here are fans, too. As a derby fanatic, I hold my breath every year when the bell rings.
Yes Dominic, that is the given – the punters have their best chance to make the most money – but the Kentucky Derby is not a great race to determine who is the best 3 year olds colt in May. The race is a farce in that respect.
Decades ago, the Cox Plate, in Australia, used to be merely a prep race for the Melbourne Cup, a handicap race with a 24 field where punters have their best chance to make a packet as the whole country bets on the one race.
Now the Cox Plate has been transformed into the most prestigious race in Australasia, in fact the world, worth 5 million in prize money.
CDI, on the other hand has, arguably, transformed the Kentucky Derby from a prestigious Classic race into a betting fest like the Melbourne Cup.
I miss the older times when the Kentucky Derby was more inclined to finding the best 3 year olds than maximizing profit.
Correct Matthew.
Caldera will be back in action on Saturday at Oaklawn to contest the un-graded Bath House Row. You will remember Caldera as the horse that pushed Getaway Car to the limit in the Sunland Derby. I’ve always said that Caldera would have won that day in New Mexico without the wide trip all the way around the track. Caldera went off at just 5-1 in the 10-horse Louisiana Derby where he finished 8th with a troubled trip. He cuts back slightly in the Bath House Row to a more comfortable mile and an eighth. He’ll have to beat the 4-5 ML Instant Replay who finished 3rd in that Louisiana Derby and another BB horse shipping in from Santa Anita named Tiz Secure. I doubt that the 15-1 ML will hold up on Caldera. Not with the “legion of owners” in My Racehorse as Steve Haskin puts it. I’m going to take a shot.
Just when I’m supposed to be taking the weekend off, they pull me right back in.
I’ve been looking forward to Tiz Secure’s next race after the turf experiment failed. His maiden win was visually impressive.
I’ll take a 2nd look at him. Maybe watch a replay of his first race.
Great Job as usual Steve.
After viewing all of the Derby Preps including overseas; I have concluded that Journalism is the most likely winner.
Rodriguez is the horse with a ton of upside as he is a late foal. I also do not see any true BB speed top go with him.
The Japanese import this year looks very formidable but I feel he is not the Caliber of Forever Young.
I agree with your statement that if Journalism improves at all, we will see something special.
I also see a few long shot odds making the Trifecta and Super pay a ton.
Good luck and I hope you have some Derby Work out talk.
Coal Battle owes his backers nothing—he has paid well all year! I’d want a big price on him, again, because he was sitting back there, in the Arkansas Derby—and offered no response to Sandman and Publisher—they went by quickly, and they weren’t exactly flying home….trainer said he should have given him another work? I dunno, he looked like a tired horse, to me….I’d want a big price–trainer offered his excuse immediatelyafter the race—too soon, in my opinion—symtom of Derby Fever?….That was not the kind of final prep you want to see..-
Son’t bet the farm! 😉
Don’t…
Agree, Matt….it would be much different for me had he been gaing ground in the last furlong instead of losing ground…..one ptep toi many? Has he peaked?
I don’t know…Ilike the coltvery much—I would have thought Preakness—easier race—I don’t like to see a horse like Coal Battle floundering, exhausted—he is all class—please take care of him HE HAS TAKEN CARE OF YOU….
I think the trainer knows what he’s doing though, he will take care of him. Running in the Derby shouldn’t burn him out, I think he bounces back pretty well. His final race at Oaklawn compares to Mystik Dan’s, wasn’t much worse, and look what happened. The early pace was very fast in this Ak Dby, probably more than the KD will be. I hope he doesn’t get excited and worked up, he has a tendency to do that even when working out.
Owen Almighty reentering the Derby.
Lynda, I dare say this was purely a decision of the owners wanting to run in the Derby. Brian Lynch knows his horse and he doesn’t want any part of it. If nothing else, he will help ensure a fast pace.
The downside is this doesn’t help Baeza’s chances of being in the starting gate.
In my opinion a very poor decision on the part of the owners. Old saying, be careful what you wish for.
Guess it is allowed however.
Kentucky Derby dot com has updated the points standings.
Might actually be a blessing that Baeza does not get in. Think his chances of winning the Preakness are excellent.
Agree on Baeza, Lynda. He should be primed and ready for a big effort in the Preakness.
Yes Dewey. Owners are not placing the horse first.
Seems like we have a more than usual number of potential runners who lost considerable ground in their last prep: Owen Almighty, Citizen Bull, Coal Battle, Madaket Road (?), Built (?). Can anyone remember a derby winner who ran this way leading into the big one?
No!
Possible candidates, Mine That Bird and Thunder Gulch, both ran fourth in prep but not sure if they were backing up.
Neither of those fit this current profile.
Rob, I’m not much for Q&A/ riddle me this, riddle me that like couple on here.
Who is Mandaloun? He finished 6th by 1 1/4L in the LA Derby
Thanks to Bob Baffert, none of Mandaloun’s backers collected their payoff. Shame.
It was 11 3/4 lengths behind. And he was already done by the stretch call, being 6 lengths back. All five horses mentioned above were within a length of the leader at the stretch call. Also, Mandaloun did not win the KD.
Why don’t you reply to questions?
I am aware that it was 11 3/4L. I have keyboard that should be dumped as its keys continues to stick. The 3 was not displayed and I was unaware.
I wouldn’t have referenced Mandaloun if he had only finished 6th by 1 1/4L.
“Mandaloun did win the KD”
I hope you do not normally take offense to being corrected.
You should have stated Mandaloun did not pass the post in front of all other opponents. That would be correct. Your statement above is incorrect.
There is a difference between first pass the post and the winner.
A11 KD records reflect Mandloun as he winner of the 2022 KD. The records are not exclusively for those that passed the post first. If so, Maximum Security and Medina Spirit names would appear with an asterisk instead of a footnote.
I do answer questions if seen.
Thank you, CP, for the reply. I understand that everyone makes typos. But you should take greater care considering the sheer volume of words you post to this site. You show disrespect to your fellow Haskin fans when you make lengthy posts that contain numerous and distracting errors. But on to the substance.
I can say factually that Medina Spirit won the Derby. He was DQed 9+ months AFTER his victory. The result chart showed his victory. Payouts on his victory were made, and not one Mandaloun bettor profited from the subsequent DQ. For the type of statistical and historical comparisons we discuss here, it’s necessary to look at Medina Spirit as the winner. But in the interest of fairness, I will henceforth refer to MS as a first-place finisher.
My heart just sank when I saw the news. No rider named yet. I hope it’ll be someone who will take care of him.
If anyone gives a lot of weight to the best last-race figure, whatever the figure may be, it’s not going to be very productive. They don’t win very often, but when they do they almost always are the favorite.
If East Avenue doesn’t run, I don’t see how they catch Rodriguez.
We’ll see…theres a lot more speed in this race than people think…ROD will surely get pace pressure….i hope everybody bets bb horses hand over fist….ROD not bad…he will be a pace factor…
Agreed Dominic.
How was Bodemiester caught?
He was caught in the Derby and Preakness by a better horse..
Bodemeister ran very fast fractions, and was game to the finish. It was one of the best losing efforts in the derby that I’ve ever seen.
IMO, I’ll Have Another would have won the Triple Crown if he had not gotten hurt.
I agree, Deacon. My heart sank when I heard the news. I loved I’ll Have Another and his jockey, Mario Guitierez was a perfect partner in their thrilling wins in the Derby and Preakness.
It’s a shame that Mario Guitierez’ career has dried up like it has. He’s moved his tack to Kentucky in an effort to revive his career, but Kentucky now has the toughest jockey colony in the country. Good luck to him.
Owen Almighty is back in….
Everybody seems to want Baeza to make the field. I think his chances took a huge hit not to get in since Owen Almighty re entered.
What’s the reason the connections second guessed their choice?
Derby Fever…..they want that experience, and are willing to put their horse in….he qualified at Tampa in a race where he was on an uncontested lead….he faded in The Bluegrass and now faces longer—and 19 others….
That was a good race, he WAS pressed, look at the race record, he finished the last furlong in under 12 seconds, fast final 3/8 and good final time.
You can blame CDI’s misguided requirement to penalize horses that ARE entered in a prep because other horses AREN’T entered.
Hope the decision doesn’t hurt the horse. What people will do for cash ! The trainer says the horse can’t run that far to be effective, so why go against him? He knows horses and you pay him to give you sound advice. Then you kick him in the ..lls and do what you want , at the horses expense.
In this country we need a license for most things we do when others are involved. Owning a horse is something that people are involved in even when they shouldn’t. Kinda like having babies , Something not everyone should do. Listen to your trainer knucklehead ! Hopefully the jockey will know to do the right thing.
Sorry I just get worked up when I see humans not doing the right thing by wildlife.
Chris, you’re preaching to the choir.
Mike
I know I am ! But I had to say something or I would have exploded. You can’t teach stupid!
Pick good horses !
Chris, you’re on point!
Who and what determines having babies?
China
That’s absolutely funny.
Just stop Facts . Figure it out on your own . I will not debate with you .
Thank you
It may SEEM like it’s easy to predict the derby pace, but it’s NOT.
So what happens if Rodriguez draws the rail? Can you say deal breaker?
Post intended for Longshot Hunter.
The 1 post is not as difficult as before the change. It is still tougher than most posts, but not as difficult.
Really? How long since a horse prevailed? Thirty-nine yrs.
Would you bet on a derby runner from Posts 2, 9, 12, 14, 17, or 18?
9
Well, Mike, they all have worse records than Post 1. Your pick, Post 9, hasn’t had a winner since 1972. But as Eric said, the last five runnings have had the new single gate. Too soon to know for sure if it’s better, but after watching horses break from P1 since 2020, I’d say it’s not nearly as fatal.
Another look Baeza picks up Secretariat through Summer Squal
They all do!
I think it is appropriate to see how
many of these go back to Secretariat. To my knowledge, only Baeza does not.
Junior Alvarado is named on horses at Keenland on Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, and Saturday. Including Just FYI on Friday. He should be 100% for the Derby on May 3rd.
I’m glad to hear that.
That is great news.
Our next door neighbor attended the Derby one year and I gave him $10 to bet on the field. Canonero II, God bless him, made me enough money to pay for my college text books. I attended the Derby in 1981, sat in the infield, and marked down my 1-4 Derby choices in the program, with my friend signing as witness. I could either stand in line for the betting window or for the restroom. Since I was unable to bet, of course my picks finished 1-4 in order. I still have that program. At 72, I don’t bet but I do make a Derby list, below in no particular order. The list may change according to circumstances.
Journalism (my first career field)
Tiztastic
Coal Battle
Burnham Square
Tappan Street
Baeza (if he gets in). Puca, BTW was named broodmare of the year.
Tappan Street
I’m sticking with of Course Journalism and Grande been waiting a lot of years for a son of Curlin to get the first Derby win. To those I still have belief in my Ar trio of Coal battle – Sandman and Publisher Those are my 5 Until I see someone else make a big leap in the The works before the Derby
Like your thinking Mark. IMO a Journalism/Grande EX is very possible. Go Curlin!
Mark Kennedy–It might work out. The first year that the Florida Derby was presented by Curlin, a son of Curlin won it. Racing is really crazy sometimes. When White Abarrio won the Holy Bull, he was the only grey horse in the race.
Fool me 3, 4, or 5 times……. Baffert Derby Winners, Silver Charm 4/1, Real Quiet 8/1, War Emblem 20/1, Medina Spirit 12/1, Authentic 8/1. Yes Medina Spirit counts – I didn’t collect a nickel on my $5 Mandaloun win bet. Rodriguez is the shiny new horse but I’m not going to ignore Citizen Bull.
His feeding philosophies have undergone dramatic change…for some reason his horses dont “rebreak” at the 8th pole anymore
Dominic,seems no one wants to discuss that aspect, right?
Probably because most folks here don’t want to engage in endless conversations with the Baffert lovers and Baffert haters. It has been run into the ground.
Too bad another “wild west show” site won’t follow, right?
Rodriguez improved and might have another move forward as he is younger than the field. Citizen Bull ran top bad to believe. I expect a better run in the Derby.
Not saying either will win but I will not discount them. As of now, Journalism is my top spot unless something changes.
River Thames ran hard in the BlueGrass. The Derby is only 25 days after the delayed BlueGrass. Todd Pletcher prefers more time between races. River Thames, as a son of Maclean’s Music, doesn’t seem to be bothered by more distance. Not yet anyway. He could be a player in the Preakness if he can handle the mile and three sixteenths.
River Thames out of derby. Pointed towards Preakness Stakes per DRF
Thanks CC.
Exactly.
According to the Churchill website, they will draw both the Oaks and Derby on opening night Saturday, April 26, between races. Sometime around 8pm Eastern.
The earlier the better.
A brilliant marketing move. Get people that wouldn’t normally be watching those Saturday night races to watch and maybe get tempted to bet a race or ten.
Steve, I’m worn out just reading and re-reading your very thorough analysis this week. A marvelous tour de force which I will be referring to several times in the days ahead. You have done some of your best work this season and it is very much appreciated. Thank you, Steve, for making the road to the Derby so special. You’re the best!
I really appreciate that Dewey. Thanks so much. It was a lot of work but I enjoyed every minute of it.
Lonnie Briley had more to say this past weekend about how his colt ran in the AR Derby which I thought interesting: “[Coal Battle] has a quick turn of foot and we like to lay him back and make one run- it’s just you gotta push the button at the right time. In the AR Derby, [Juan] pulled the trigger a little early. If he had waited until the 5/16th pole, I think it would have been a little different. But the two horses in front of him were backing up and he got a little nervous and he went on.” This was in addition to Briley previously admitting CB was “too fresh”. Just my (amateur) take but it seems like they are still learning about this colt who has shown a lot of versatility and an ability to “adapt” as Steve has pointed out. So it seems like a good thing that Briley ran CB in the race and got this important feedback to help the team get CB ready for whatever comes.
I agree with him and I think I ranked him too low. I just don’t know how good the Oaklawn horses were. But I wrote how he took the worst of it in the Arkansas Derby moving too soon. Oh well, we’ll see.
I love how Grande, Gambit, Gold, the 3 Gs are Steve Haskin’s early 20-1 overlays. The 3 Gs are going to blast off in Derby 151! Ha!
its not hard to find out who ran the best never has….Journalism is best on paper….looks great on mesureables….best horse period……
This game is seeing the future….what and how the horses are going to be derby day….
physically, mentally,
Spot on.
Burnham square is a horse that runs when he wants….he wont go when you ask him like most horses….i bet him 3 back when he ran great..he was asked to run hard by jock, and he wouldnt go….then he all of a sudden ran on to win……i would bring him from way farther back…….goofy horse….not my pick but ive watched him …..this horse is good once he gets it
DRF is reporting that River Thames will bypass the KY Derby. Built is next on the list but is likely for the Pat Day Mile. Neoequos will run in the Derby if Built passes. Time is running out for Baeza to get in which is a shame. The 20 horses committed to going all want to run, which doesn’t bode well for Baeza ‘s chances.
Don’t want to see any injuries/illnesses but, as we’ve seen in the past, anything can happen in the last few days leading up to the Derby. Don’t give up on Baeza.
Dewey I agree with you.
In the coming days we might hear of a horse or two withdrawing because their trainers are not happy with their progress or for some other minor reason.
I still think Baeza has a good chance to get in.
Think Baeza is super talented, but too green to handle the derby.
Hi Steve
First off, many thanks for providing those Thoro-Graph numbers. I vividly remember your analysis of Mystik Dan having the best TG number of 0 1/4 in the 2024 Derby field.
Based on the top TG number, I suspect that had a lot to do with him being your final top selection in the 2024 Derby. You nailed the winner at 19-1, so hats off to you in that regard. Forever Young had the next best TG number at 1, (finished 3rd), and Sierra Leone had the next best, at 1 1/2, (finished 2nd).
Bottom line, Thoro-Graph numbers are certainly an important factor in the handicapping process. I hope you’re right that Baeza makes the Derby field, he has the best TG number at “0”, followed by Grande at “1/2”, American Promise at “1”, Burnham Square at “1 1/2”, Journalism at “1 1/2”, Tappan Street at “1 1/2”, Sandman at “1 1/2” and Sovereignty at “1 3/4”.
Those seven colts and one gelding certainly deserve serious consideration as the likely 2025 Kentucky Derby winner, IMO.
FYI, Journalism ran a -1/2 prior to his last race at 1 1/2 so he has the lowest Thor-Graph number not Baeza.
My post reflected the last out Thoro-Graph numbers, not prior races.
Therefore, Baeze does in fact have the best “current” TG number, at 0.
I rest my case.
You really have to go with pattern more than just the best last-out number. Mystik Dan did have more than a big number, which wasn’t his last race. There were other circumstances. But that big number did play a big part of it.
The first thing your post mentioned was Mystik Dan who did not have the best last out number last year. Sierra Leone, Forever Young, and Just A Touch all had better last out numbers than Mystik Dan going into the Derby therefore by your own definition your post did not reflect best “current” TG Numbers. Mystik Dan earned his best number back in February of 2024 prior to his Derby win. Journalism has the best number going in just like Mystik Dan did although neither number was the best last out…………….I rest my case.
biglemmer
Due to the ambiguous nature of the evidence presented, (Thoro-Graph numbers), the judge has decided to dismiss the case.
Case closed.
I’m fairly certain that Fierceness had the top TG fig…in his next-to-last prep.
LAST prep
However, you brought up Mystic Dan’s low Thoro #. That was not his last race before the Derby so the theory does not line up.
Hi Bill,
I always target you for my comments as I am aware that even when you harbor contempt for me. You will still give me a fair shake. I hope you do not mind.
The most impressive winner in the current top 20 has to be Final Gambit. Interestingly, he isn’t amongst the 7 cited with lowest TG Numbers.
I much prefer the eye test and other race related factors for my assessments. I quite frankly do not know how to use speed figures and sheet numbers in the decision-making process.
Of the 9F preps, the fastest final furlong was recorded in Jeff Ruby i.e.,12.19 with the 3rd longest run up of 80ft. Final Gambit must have recorded a faster final furlong than the official given where he was closing from.
The winner of the Jeff Ruby overcame negative trip related and other factors, that the winners of the other 9F preps were not subjected to.
(1) Graded stakes debut
(2) Racing without the RDM Lasix administered for his two previous starts
93) Stopped in his track after the break necessitating a restart.
(4) 8 to 9 wide on the final turn
To rise to the occasion after so many factors that could have contributed to defeat, in a graded stakes debut, reflects the kind of class rarely seen.
Final Gambit won his previous start in a MSW over 8F in 1:40 plus. The 8F split in the Jeff Ruby was 1:37 plus. The colt essentially came off Lasix and ran 3 seconds faster in its graded stakes debut.
I do not need TGN, Beyers, Brisnett and Equibase figures and number to indicate that Final Gambit could be a monster in the making. If he can replicate his Jeff Ruby performance on the dirt at CD, the rest will be running for second.
but it’s a big ‘IF’
Hey CP
“Contempt”: scorn, despised, worthless, etc., etc.
Just because we don’t always agree, how can you say that I “harbor contempt” towards you? I hold Final Gambit in high regard as well and have him at #3 on my latest Derby prospect list, which I posted in Week 11. They are as follows:
1) Sovereignty
2) Journalism
3) Final Gambit
4) Luxor Cafe
5) Tappan Street
6) Grande
7) River Thames (out of KD)
8) Rodriguez
9) Sandman
10) Tiztastic
11) Burnham Square
12) American Promise
On a couple occasions, I’ve requested your top 12 Derby prospects which I’ve yet to see posted. It certainly doesn’t mean that I “harbor contempt” for not doing so.
BTW, we all have our own method of handicapping, to each his own.
Most impressive winner was Journalism in the Santa Anita Derby.
Checked going into the first turn checked going into the final turn.
After that yes, Final Gambit and for what it matter he looked like he was just getting started in the final 1/8 mile.
CP, would you have the same view of Final Gambit if all his races have been on turf?
Bill, thanks for that excellent summary on this year’s ThoroGraph numbers. Since I have no clear personal favorite for this Derby, I have to say if Baeza gets in, he may be my pick. Still quite a few days to go until the race, with the usual twists and turns ahead.
BTW, in reference to your response to Counter Point below, I have to say, you are all class. I really appreciate your many contributions to this blog.
Thank you for the kind words, Ms Blacktype.
I’m hopeful that Baeza makes the Derby starting gate, I’ve got a $50.00 win wager on him in Pool 6, at 53-1.
Good luck, Ms B.
That’s what I call planning ahead!
There’s no one more than Junior Alvarado and Bill Mott (maybe just Frankie Dettori but I don’t think that will happen this year) I’d rather see in the winners circle after the Derby this year. So I”m all in for Sovereignty. That work you mentioned sounds like a very good work for him especially how Bill has said he is not a good work horse.
I would love to see Coal Battle hit the board for Lonnie and crew in the derby that would be wonderful. he might be slightly outclassed but I think that colt has nothing but heart.
Thanks for reminding me about Chunk of Gold – I definitely think he will be in the 20/1-30/1 ish odds for the derby nice price play there!
Thanks again Steve fantastic list as always!
Elliott Walden said he was mistaken. The colt’s correct ponunciation is t’PAN Street for those interested.
Let’s call the whole thing off.
I just saw that movie AGAIN. Love Astaire & Rogers.
I haven’t seen it in ages, but I’m sure it’s still immensely enjoyable.
I’ve been reading Steve’s stuff since the Blood Horse days and this might be his best Derby Dozen yet. I have the same top 4. After re-watching the preps, Journalism is my #1. Barnes crowded him at the 1/2 and he was only about 2 lengths from the leader when a bump just prior to the 3/4 pole lost a lot of momentum and at least two lengths. This gave Baeza the jump and made the finish a lot closer than it would have been had Juan/Baffert not been screwing around. As such, I see that race as progression and not regression for Journalism. Sad thing is, had Barnes just run his race, he potentially finishes third and with a decent shot at a Derby gate. It’s really tough to separate the next three. Tappan has room to improve and I think the figure makers underrated the FL Derby. Saez is a plus. The horse looks to be positioned better than others which may allow him to get an early jump. Sovereignty has stellar dam side breeding and could be sitting on a big one but can’t let others get too much of a head start. Grande fired a big TG and potentially has more to show. JV is a huge plus.
Justin – I agree on your take on Journalism. He ran lights out in the SA Derby to get the win the way he was bottled up and his momentum stopped and he still won. I agree with you that he did not Regress from his Los Al Futurity win. He still ran a strong figure and the traffic trouble and his momentum being stopped led to a lesser number than his previous race. IMO he is the clear horse to beat and he will relish the 1 1/4. He’s only raced 2 times in 2025. He’s coming in a fresh horse.
Thought I’d pass along a fascinating article I came across on BloodHorse. It’s titled, “Kumin on Verge of Achieving 100 Grade 1 Victories.” It delves far deeper into the business than what the headline describes.
Another great job Steve. Glad you can help reduce the field based on your expertise about American Promise, “beats me,” lol, and Publisher, “someday he will win a race”. Keep em coming!
Mineshaft was pensioned from stud duty at 26 – a ripe old age. He was a fantastic and very underrated racehorse, and a very fine sire.
Lanes End was patient with him, and it paid off
I root so hard for Honor Code & HAP because they are pretty much the last, “young” links to Indy
Steve, what are your memories of him?
I was around him a lot. Beautiful horse. Good story coming from England where he was just an ordinary horse. Physical problems prevented him from running the BC. His first crop was red hot at the yearling sales and then he went cold. Buyers very fickle who they like and for how long.
His pedigree was all-American, so not sure why they sent him to the UK – unless it’s because Will Farish was the Ambassador to St James
That’s the truth, but fortunately he had much success despite his not being commercially attractive
Betsy, agreed! Mineshaft truly was underrated.
I’m glad I’m not the only one who thinks so, Mike
I’m in the mood now to watch his NY races…
Indy was such a legend
Thanks Betsy!
Betsy, do you remember Tomisue’s Delite, Mineshaft’s full sister, she was a monster and gorgeous. Rock Slide was a full brother but lacked the qualities of Mineshaft.
I loved Tomisue! She was a big, blazed faced chestnut – such a beauty!
Rock Slide was a good horse – multiple SW, G2 placed…nothing to be ashamed of!
It rains; it snows; it’s 68 degrees and sunny. The snowdrops are blooming and the first daffodil. Just 3 weeks out from the best day of Spring, reading glasses on and as ever, looking forward to final comments. Thank you all!
Beautiful Angela. Thank you
Steve, do you have Coal Battle’s thorograph numbers?
Thanks for the helpful rankings, I have #2, 4, 6 and 15 in a Derby contest.
The Derby is starting to gel with this list, I feel, but it seems like the post position draw will be even more important this year than usual, but that may just be my outlook. If for instance East Avenue gets post 19, I think his chances are way lower if not nil, than if he gets post 3. I don’t like to see my picks get further out than post 12 or 13, I think it’s harder to be way outside and draw in, no matter what your running style is. Thanks.
13 1/2…13 1/2…13 1/2…10…8 3/4…6 3/4…3…5
Thanks for the whole list. That doesn’t seem like too bad a regression but I don’t know much about thorograph figures.
Discopartner, through Past the Wire available onYouTube, John Stettin goes through all the Derby runner’s Thoro-Graph speed ratings, patterns.
Thanks Davids, I watched it and it’s a great way to get all the Thoro-Graph numbers for each horse. But more is needed to separate each horse from the others. I can’t tell the difference between Burnham Square and Tappan Street, for instance. The names don’t help. Tappan may have gone faster but only has a few races.
I feel one of the best known horses is Coal Battle, maybe because I followed his races closely. The others, including Journalism, are still a bit of a mystery to me.
I’d like to pick Grande but with so few races will he hold up? And even if he does, and Johnnie V. can be trusted to put him in position, can he accelerate enough? I think he can get the distance and has one of the longest strides, but he doesn’t seem to go that fast.
Go with your instincts, Discopartner, and your heart. The best result for racing would be for Coal Battle to win. If truth be told, it’s the horse who has the best luck in the race that wins. Even Bob Baffert openly says that luck is a major part in winning races.
Best of luck.
Considering the dynamics of the race it wasnt too bad but with his career high ‘3’ he’d have to have improve some 3 points off that, but now he has to improve 6 points. He has never made that big a jump.
Thanks, that’s a good point. I may pick him because I like him anyway. He really skitters over the track with his fast moving feet, and has the best looking face, in my opinion. I thought he might be a bit of a keyed up horse too, not as laid back as they said, I hope I’m wrong. It’s a big challenge for these horses to deal with crowds and the competition, sometimes it doesn’t seem fair to them.
Disco, I can relate. I just love Coal Battle: his story, his personable trainer, his small-stable owners, and (not least of all) his daddy. I have been feeling just a little dejected and hoping that this race isn’t going to be too much for him. But I’m going to keep pulling for him, too. And if it rains? Put him up the list!
Like you, I think he is as pretty as can be! He has an intelligent and kind eye, and a good shoulder. Although Steve said it of Publisher winning a race, I think Coal Battle will win a G1 for Lonnie B, even if it doesn’t happen on 5/3.
I’m hoping for 5/3. He has beautiful eyes, inherits them from Seattle Slew perhaps. He has a chance, and I’m not too enamored with any one horse in the field.
He’s all heart Katy.
Coal Battle has the look of an old soul. That’s a compliment. I don’t know if this is the perfect race for him at this point in his career, but I hope he’s successful in whatever he does for many races to come..
This comment is for Discopartner(for some reason I cannot reply to their comment), re: Seattle Slew. This little fella is line bred Slew SIX times in every quadrant of his pedigree. Brilliant actually. My favorite horse of all time and my heart will be pulling for him hard.
East Avenue is bred for speed and stamina. This imposing colt promised so much, but his career has featured a disastrous start in the BCJ and an inexplicable no show in the Risen Star.
How many that delivered poor performances in the BCJ, returned to win the KD?
Sea Hero – After a win in the Champagne G1, he finished 7th in the BCJ as a close 2nd choice. He never won any of his subsequent 3 starts ahead of the KD.
Mine That Bird – After 4 consecutive wins with the last being the Grey Stakes G3 ahead of the BCJ, He finished last in his trip to SA Park. He likewise never won any of his subsequent 2 starts ahead of the KD.
Given the above there is hope for the speed son of Medaglia D’ Oro. Masa the first to win in the Epsom Derby in Godolphin’s blue colors previously finished 3rd in the 2000 Guineas.
Godolphin will never win their first KD with a short price entrant.
Masar put in such an extraordinary performance in the Cravan Stakes, the traditional prep for the 2,000 Guineas, that he went backwards in the 2,000 Guineas. Most went off Masar after the Guineas performance including me.
I was so high on Masar for the Epsom Derby but the 2,000 Guineas performance was such a shocker that everyone fled Masar.
Is there a “Mesar’ colt among this Kentucky Derby field?
Counter, EA is super talented.
There’s a lot to like about Sovereignty…he wasn’t fully cranked, did not have to be—and he ran well—his Churchill race he passed them all–pace was not fast but will be in a couple of weeks!
The top 20 contains 8 qualifiers that fall into the category of ‘All Other’ from Pool #3. They are covered above.
I would love for Baeza to make it 9 but as pr Equibase, he is he is behind the following horses –
21 – Built
22 – Neoequos – AO
23 -Render Judgment – AO
What has this All-Other wager in pool #3 revealed. As the middle pool of 6 the odd will not be appealing. But a base 4/1 on 8 to 9 horses in s 20 horse field provides a greater prospect of decent ROI as compared to the more lucrative odds offered on single betting interests.
Final Gambit is my only hope to cash.
The All Others in exacta boxes can provide the most bang for the buck. One of my oddball plays in Pool 3 was a $2 box Grande/All Others. I now have at least 16 combinations from that one $4 wager that would cost $32 on Derby Day.
Churchill Downs already has their race-day schedules up for Oaks and Derby days.
11am first posts each day. Ouch! That’s 8am for our friends on the West coast.
13 races on Friday and 14 on Saturday.
The Oaks and Derby are set, but other race order TBD.
As Roger Stein used to say: “27 equine puzzles to take your worries and troubles away”.
Tommy, Roger thought Beyer’s opinion if Zenyatta was rubbish. Especially her considered ‘slow’. Lol
EDIT- Of
Maybe you should read what Beyer ACTUALLY wrote about Zenyatta* rather than repeating this drivel ad nauseam (often in threads that have nothing to do with Zenyatta or Beyer).
You can agree or disagree with his OPINIONS, but you shouldn’t misrepresent them.
*”Zenyatta’s fast, but doesn’t belong in racing’s pantheon” by Andrew Beyer
Washington Post, September 29, 2010
Another reader couple weeks ago agreed,also indicating he stated the same about Seattle Slew. Roger Stein and I had couple of detailed discussions regarding Beyer and Zenyatta when she was racing.
You’re the one with the problem.
Beyer said Zenyatta had “lost a step”—right before start #14, her Classic win….at 5/2…..
Correct Matthew. He also said she was phony.
The best Phony I ever saw, Live or on tv.
Saw her three times live, Eric.
A ML and/or post time favorite winning the KD has not occurred in the last 6 years. Journalism appears to be the unofficial ML favorite for KD 2025. Is he a strong or lukewarm unofficial ML favorite?
From 2013 to 2018 there were 6 consecutive winning favorites. How do their last two starts ahead of the KD compare to that of Journalism? Let’s see.
Justify – SA Derby by 3L; AOC by 61/2L
Always Dreaming – FL Derby 5L; AOC by 4L
Nyquist -FL Derby by 3 1/2L; San Vicente by 1/2L
American Pharoah – Rebel by 61/2L; AK Derby by 8L
California Chrome – SA Derby 61/4L; San Felipe 7 1/4L
Orb – FL Derby by 2 3/4L; FOY by 1L
Journalism – SA Derby 3/4L; San Filipe 1 1/4L
The six winning favorites seem to have been more authoritative in their wins with the exception of Orb. But even Orb’s 2 3/4L win his final KD perp was by a margin of 2L greater than that recorded by Journalism in his final KD prep.
Can this bit of information be used as guide? Hardly! Each KD field is different. But it’s certainly food for thought.
That is interesting food for thought, CF. Maybe it says that a 3-1 Journalism may not be a good win bet. But he still is the most likely winner. Don’t you agree? If not, who do you think is the most likely winner?
I thought Chrime got eased and won SA Derby by 4 lengths..
Split the difference. It was 5 1/4.
I was surprised to see that Kenny McPeek is thinking of running Thorpedo Anna back on short rest(20 days) in the La Troienne. She won easy on Saturday and if any horse can do it, it’s her.
I think Bob is bringing his 4 for 4 big filly to Churchill, fot the same race!…By Nyquist, her name escapes me (begins with “C”) but she’s a nice filly…
Cavaliere Matt.
Steve, my heart is with Burnham Square this year. You have him ranked 7th, so that gives me some hope. I had the colt to win in both the Holy Bull and the Bluegrass (I also bet him to win in the FOY, and that didn’t turn out so good), but the point is that he still doesn’t owe me anything.
The other big reason I want this colt to win the Derby is that I’m such a big fan of the Whitham operation. I’ve been following Janis Whitham’s horses ever since Bayakoa back in the late 80’s (made a nice score on Fort Larned in the Classic a few years back). I’ve just been in love with the horses she sends out for the last nearly 40 years. Plus the fact that Ian Wilkes trains for her now is just sweet icing on the cake! He is one of those trainers out there that is awfully hard not to like!
I don’t know if Burnham Square is good enough, but he’ll carry a piece of my heart with him from flag fall to that’s all………not to mention a few bucks as well!
I actually had him ranked #5 but went speed at the last minute for the reasons I stated in his comment. But I have always ranked him high and predicted a. Big comeback in the Blue Grass. The number of the Rankings isn’t as Important as what I say in the comments. Rankings are splitting hairs. Interchangeable
“because this is a long one” Never too long when I’m reading about the horses and Steve Haskin’s take on things.
I think that a key factor will be how you look at Journalism and his regression from that whopping 108 BSF to a 102 BSF. Does he yo-yo back up or regress again to something like a 96 or 98. I seem to remember that California Chrome won his Derby with a 95 BSF. Too early to say that this is a great crop of 3-year-olds. But I think there are at least a few horses better than what “Chrome” faced. You want a horse that is ready to run his best race on Derby Day. Journalism is slightly more likely to regress again than equal his top IMO. I think we already saw his best. I wouldn’t be surprised if he runs third though. No offense.
Thank you. That was the question I posed. You don’t really know what direction he’s going
BSFs, to some extent, take into account the competition. The margin of error has to increase with smaller field size. Then throw Baeza underneath to complicate it some more, granted TG and Rags also support the slight decline. The 102 would still be plenty competitive at CD. Worth noting something happened with the horse just before the 3/4 pole. He was only about two lengths off the leader then his head turns sharply to the right. Not sure if the horse on outside distracted or he was resisting some pilot instructions. The horse lost a ton of momentum or probably wins that race by five lengths. Nutshell: take whatever the heck that was out and he pairs or exceeds the 108.
102 BSF will probably win the KD. Or come real close. So a so called regression to 102 is probably a KD winning BSF.
Steve, great analysis…..you’ve outdone yourself once again.
This year’s group has 7 or 8 horses that could win the KD. In no particular order, below is my top 7.
Journalism
Luxor Cafe
Sovereignty
Rodriguez
Final Gambit
Tiztastic
Publisher
Thanks very much. All lists are OK with me.
No love for the BCJ favorite that flopped.
Who’s your top 5?
Hey Zany! Mine are Journalism, Sov, East Ave, Coal Battle,Burnham Square, Sandman and Luxor.
Thanks Steve for all your work. I don’t know where else we could get the full panorama of the Derby picture in one fell swoop every week. You make Mondays or Tuesdays a day to look forward to. I have one question. Will we be able to hear you Brooklyn eloquence on ATR this year. You do the same for racing as Shelby Foote did for the Civil War!
Wow thank you!! That’s like comparing me to the voice of God…Southern style
Well I did watch the Ten Commandments for the 64 time on Saturday night!
That’s what Journalism and Sovereignty are going to need, the parting of the Red Sea. Btw that great voice was Cecil B. DeMille himself.
Barza and East Avenue both were worked extra hard–for peak performances….they needed points—unlike Sovereignty and Journalism….both train
ed to peak I. 19 days….
Earlier on, I thought I would be all over Journalism or Sovereignty for my Derby horse. And I definitely still think very highly of both and may end up going with one of them. Recently, however, I’ve been feeling drawn towards Final Gambit or Luxor Cafe. Wish there were less unknowns with regard to them, but they are intriguing. My 9 year old son is on Sovereignty.
Your 9 year old isn’t as bold and daring as his mom. If he’s Interested in the Derby you’re both winners
Apparently he likes Sovereignty because it’s the name of a sailing ship in a book he’s been reading.
And yes, I am lucky he is taking after me! We went to Santa Anita in late January while on vacation, and I told him he could pick which horse we bet on in the last race. His pick (Legitimate) absolutely spanked the field, so he was pretty ecstatic. 🙂
So many good horses. I’m no big better, I do it all from a gut feeling so I’m sometimes right and many times wrong I just want them all to have a safe trip. My sentimental is Coal Battle, my love of greys is Sandman, and the win that impressed me was Rodriguez. . But I wish them all a safe trip in the cavalry charge on Derby Day!
I don’t bet at all, I just love watching them run (first was the 1972 KD), and I’m rooting for the little guy, Coal Battle. But I like Sandman as well. May they all come back safe and sound after the Run for the Roses.
Both trainer and horse are a class act!
I can’t argue with any of your placings on this list, though, my heart belongs to Coal Battle. Sadly, while I don’t doubt his heart and try, I do doubt his ability to get the distance.
Robin, that can be said for several. Like Coal Battle alot.
Coal battle doesn’t have it. Run up the track is his destiny.
Like a couple of your favs?
I think Publisher is the sleeper for the derby based upon his pedigree and his great race in the Arkansas Derby. I would add Baeza here too. The big difference is that Publisher will be overlooked by the betting public. Baeza will get too much attention if he gets in.
As I mentioned Publisher looks like the typical al Derby longshot who rallies to hit the board.
Regarding Publisher, a win would be a shocker, but hitting the board would be less so. He’s got the connections, breeding, and improving numbers. That said, his Ark run maybe deceiving to the eye since the clock was slow on the closing fractions. Closing 7 lengths when the final 3/8 mile is 40 seconds is nothing special. Seems like more of a horse where the speed comes back to versus actually gaining momentum. Since I’m a skeptic with him, I almost have to be with Sandman as well. Interestingly, there are not many horses with 94+ Brisnet LP figures this year. There are a slug of them with 100+ Brisnet E2 figures and a handful with 100+ E1 numbers. On paper, this suggests a few horses could be loose early followed by a highly contentious battle beginning in the 1/2 to 3/4 before the closers do their thing.
My G picks, Gold, Grande, Gambit are looking better ever week. Ha!
Yikes my three longshot win bets.
Gosh Steve our top five are the same, if not in exact order, and my 6th would be Luzor Cafe! So we read the tea leaves in the sane fashion, and we usually do, sir!
Lol I almost made him #6. I started to remember all the things I loved about East Avenue and all the horses wth speed who had a terrible start or got squeezed back. You never if or what speed horse will benefit
Steve, thanks. Lots of great insights. I am guessing on three closers, fighting it out at the end. Sandman, Tiztastic, and Journalism. I just don’t see any speed horses making it for the distance. Definitely not the Into Mischief line.
BTW, Tappan is a Brit name that is part of my family. It was used as a surname and also as a first name on the maternal side of the family.
It’s the name of a street in East Boston, where one of the deceased connections grew up, they named him in this man’s honor. Eastie has a mixed immigrant base but at one time was English.
I thought Tappan st was in Brookline. Named after an abolishinist.
William, we are definitely on the same wave length – Sandman, Tiztastic and Journalism – plus Coal Battle from the heart. Yes, same with the Into Mischief line not for me. By the way, Mark Casse, thinks Sandman will be mid pack and, moreover, has the speed to get good position.
Not sure if you follow Past the Wire but John Stettin went through the Thoro-Graph speed ratings, patterns of every runner in the Kentucky Derby the other day it’s worth listening to. It’s on YouTube.
Thanks, will do.
Wow! I wasn’t expecting such detail about 20 runners. I can’t argue with the top three at all, particularly considering how strong the Florida Derby and Santa Anita Derby have been during the points era and before.
I would rank River Thames much higher, maybe as high as #7. He’s about one length from being undefeated in four races including the Fountain of Youth and the Bluegrass. He clearly fits the profile of a derby winner apart from not winning a graded stakes race or being second in a G1.
Remember when four starts as a 3yo before the Derby was the norm rather than the exception? RT and Rodriguez will probably be the only horses in the derby with four starts as 3yos. There hasn’t been a 4-race Derby winner since 2004 (when considering MaxSec as winner and not using the Sept winner). What RT lacks in 2yo seasoning, he makes up for in 3yo seasoning.
RT’s Brisnet figures are 96>99>99>96. The average winning figure for the Kentucky Derby is 102 since 2013. RT would only need to improve three points from his best figure.
All for now, but more to come. (Not a threat!)
RT can’t get distance. Said the same regarding Owen.
What kind of a finish in the KD will tell us that RT “can’t get the distance”? Does he need to win?
No,he doesn’t need to win. However, my guess is he fails to finish in the money. Weeks ago, someone was certain Owen could get distance, my posts reflected he’s distance challenged. Obviously not on Derby trail now.
Well Mike–River Thames began at one mile ..has never sprinted….I thought he ran pretty well, at Keenelabd and was surprised to learn Irad had moved to Publisher…
Steve you recommended a book many moons ago “A Sound of Horses” very hard to find cost me $80 when published cost $6.50. This is well worth it excellent read so much history and info I will read it again. Thanks for doing what you were put on this earth to do you are the best. Stay safe and healthy.
That’s very kind of you, Auggie. Thanks so much. So glad you enjoyed the book. I thought it would be hard to find.
Auggie, I love that book. Got it for Christmas when I was a horse-crazy 12 year old. Should take it out an read it again!
If…Rodriguez can get away with a :47 half—it’s a big if—I keep te-watching that Wood Nemorial–hand ridden and dominant..
Matthew, in the last 20 years, there have been five derbies with a half in :47 or slower (2015, 2014, 2011, 2009, 2008). All have been won by stalking or closing. War Emblem (Baffert!) was the last gate-to-wire winner with a :47 or slower half.
Yes I know—it’s rare….I’m bullish on this horse! He’s not going to be three, yet….is on the upswing—he really impressed, winning his maiden, and when they removed his blinkers he looked pretty good! He’s the type that will win or run out—but I think he could win..
When an artist who has been painting for 5 years or 50 years starts a new painting , he starts with a blank canvas. Once he makes that first stroke of the brush all previous paintings mean nothing.
It’s like you say Steve…Bob’s done this….War Emblem…Justify…..Medina Spirit…..wire to wire is rare—Bob’s done this…
Don’t forget Authentic
Oh yeah! Rod’s sire!..
Actually, Justify didn’t have the lead until after 6f. But he was very close.
He’s also done it pressing in back to back years with Silver Charm and Real Quiet but I suspect Rodriguez would need to do it on the engine. Tough task with some other speeds. There are a few Brisnet E1 100+ horses in last prep and Rodriguez is one. There are a pile of Brisnet E2 100+ horses suggesting traffic behind the front few could be worse than it already is in a field of 20. I won’t rule out Rodriguez with a nice draw and clean break. I’m just not convinced that golden rail trip with token pressure from Captain Cook at Aqueduct happens at CD where we have Citizen Bull, East Ave, American Promise, River Themes, perhaps Baeza, along with the chance of another trainer changing tactics, plus whatever the Japanese have in store. These are not cheap speed horses. Maybe they all start falling apart at the mile pole but they are proven to take the engine over a mile.
Matthew I’d be shocked if the Derby pace is not under 47 flat for a half . I don’t see it. Journalism blasts away at the start , and you can bet Rispoli will want good position going into the first turn. I expect Journalism to run a sub 47 half, and he’s not a speed horse and won’t be on or just off the leaders. Rodriguez is good but has his work cut out IMO. Nobody is gonna let him walk the dog. Running a sub 47 is not compromising your horses chances unless your a deep closer. Hoping Journalism draws well.
Undrrstood, Joe—and I share your enthusiasm with Journalism! Even if they shade 47—should Rodriguez get a lobely lead like in New Your he could win…I’m rooting for Journalism—the horse I fear the most is Rodriguez..
Having fully read your post—I HOPE J does not run a sub :47 first half!…He’s not an up front runner, and it’s ten furlongs..
Maybe I did get carried away with that comment. Actually , the faster they go, the better for Journalism. He likes a target to run at. I do expect a strong quarter for Journalism. He breaks well and Rispoli will do the best he can to not get hung wide going into the first turn and Will try to break well to avoid the early crush of the Calvary charge running into the first turn. He runs well on the inside, but I’m hoping in the KY Derby , he’s more on the outside, in the clear, before launching his run for home.
Thanks, Steve, for posting this bright and early on Monday morning. This is an unusual Derby trail for me in that I like so many of these horses, but without one or two I especially like, as in other years. On the same foot, I (like you) can see a potential win for six or eight of them, perhaps even more. Unless the field implodes between now and May 3, there are very few tosses as well. I may just go with a gut feeling this time. Or see who Matthew W.’s betting on. He seems to come up with winners no one else can.
Completely agree, Ms B! I really like a lot of these colts, and I’m having a tough time separating them!
Thank you Steve for this thought provoking article that provides insights not available anywhere else. I’ll study this and reread many times leading up to May. Animal Kingdom taught me not to make my mind up to quickly. Thank you again. The Derby would not be the same without your writing.
Thank you very much Kenny. I really appreciate it
Tappan Street secured a big promotion.
He might have more upside than most of these. I think most of the figure makers were too soft on the Florida Derby as well. He will probably be mildly overlooked on the tote as well.