2025 Kentucky Derby Rankings – Week 2
It was a wild weekend with a number of new faces entering the Derby picture. As a result we had to do a lot of shuffling around and expand the Rankings to a Top 20. With only the Sam F. Davis at Tampa on tap for this weekend, the next Rankings will be a challenge trying to come up with fresh comments. It might be time to analyze more Thoro-Graph patterns and pedigrees. ~ Steve Haskin
Derby Rankings: February 3, 2025 – Week 2
By Steve Haskin
1—East Avenue (Brendon Walsh, Medaglia d‘Oro – Dance Music, by Ghoszapper)
He obviously won’t be able to wipe away the bad taste of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile until February 15 when he returns in the Risen Star Stakes. So right now you can only go by how he’s training and so far he hasn’t missed a beat with a series of strong works at Fair Grounds, including that five-furlong bullet work in :59 2/5, fastest of 44 works. This is a good week to look at pedigrees. First off he is a complete outcross (no inbreeding), which makes him desirable as a stallion prospect. On the surface, his sire is a Travers winner and Belmont and Breeders’ Cup Classic runner-up; his broodmare sire is a Breeders’ Cup Classic winner in record time; his four great-grandsires are Sadler’s Wells, sire of 27 classic winners, including the winners of 11 Derbys and six Breeders’ Cup races; Bailjumper, a son of Preakness and Belmont winner and Hall of Famer Damascus; Awesome Again, winner of the Breeders’ Cup Classic; and Tapit, sire of four Belmont winners. And his third dam is by Belmont winner Editor’s Note. And finally, his dam is a half-sister to 2023 Horse of the Year and two-time Breeders’ Cup winner Cody’s Wish. In short, he is bred like royalty and looks like royalty. I won’t move him until he tells me to.
2—Sovereignty (Bill Mott, Into Mischief – Crowned, by Bernardini)
He returned to the work tab with a half-mile breeze in :49 1/5 after missing some time with a fever. He hasn’t run since late October when he won the Street Sense Stakes as a maiden, easily defeating Tiztastic and Sandman, who last week finished a fast-closing third and second, respectively, in the Southwest Stakes. He blew them both away, winning by five widening lengths. Being we’re looking at some pedigrees this week, there isn’t much to say about the continuously growing clan of Into Mischief sons invading the Derby trail en masse this year. Sovereignty’s dam was a $1.2 million yearling purchase, but never got to the races. His second dam Mushka won the Spinster and Demoiselle and was second in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff, but her nine siblings won a total of two races. This family traces to Comely Nell, dam of Kentucky Derby and Belmont winner Bold Forbes. Sovereignty is inbred to Seattle Slew and Fappiano on the dam side and his broodmare sire Bernardini and two maternal great-grandsires, A.P. Indy and Empire Maker, were all classic winners, accounting for a Preakness and two Belmonts, and their sires both were Kentucky Derby winners. At this point, plans are still uncertain.
3—Journalism (Mike McCarthy, Curlin – Mopotism, by Uncle Mo)
Another of the top Derby contenders who have missed some training due to illness, but better early than late and he is fully back on schedule with another solid work, drilling a half in :48 4/5, which was the fastest of eight works at the distance. With Journalism and Bullard, McCarthy will have to come up with a schedule, but as of now it looks like he’ll be pointed for the San Felipe, where he will try to derail the Baffert juggernaut, especially if Barnes shows up. In my mind, there is no one sharper in this game than Eclipse Partners’ Aron Wellman, who bought this colt as a yearling for $825,000, feeling he was “athletic, strong, and well made.” The dam won or placed in 12 stakes and they’ve had good success with Curlin. And if you believe in karma, Eclipse Partners and co-owner Bob LaPenta both are owed a Derby win after their respective colts Danza and Ice Box had disastrous trips and still finished third and second, flying at the finish. This colt has a powerful closing punch, whether it’s Santa Anita, Del Mar, or Los Alamitos, has gotten more professional with each race, and still has a lot of room for improvement.
4—Citizen Bull (Bob Baffert, Into Mischief – No Joke, by Distorted Humor)
All I can think of is to compare Baffert and Aidan O’Brien in that O’Brien simulates races in his workouts and Baffert simulates workouts in his races. There is no denying that Citizen Bull is a fast and talented horse and certainly the most accomplished by far. But I’m still going to hold off putting him higher up until a horse that chases him home is not a stablemate, which the last three runners-up have been. He’s also had stablemates finish third and fourth. Yes, he defeated the East’s leading 2-year-olds in the Breeders’ Cup, but one stumbled badly and the others never picked their feet up over the Del Mar surface. And the second and third-place finishers in the Robert Lewis Stakes, both stablemates, were coming off maiden victories, but in his defense, Rodriguez looks like a talented colt with a bright future. Citizen Bull’s speed figures are excellent, as was his Thoro-Graph pattern going into the race. Maybe the skepticism toward him is more about monotony. It’s as if we have seen this horse a number of times before, whether his name was American Pharoah or Authentic or Corniche or Cave Rock or Medina Spirit or even War Emblem, and so on. When a Baffert horse wants the lead they usually get it, and there is no horse tougher to run down because of how fit he gets them. So for now we will expect a likely repeat performance in the Santa Anita Derby and then see if any horse at Churchill Downs is bold enough to try to outrun him or if he is just as effective coming from off the pace, as American Pharoah showed he was capable of doing if he had to.
5—Barnes (Bob Baffert, Into Mischief – All American Dream, by American Pharoah)
He turned in a sharp five-furlong work in :59 4/5 Saturday. The question is whether he should be the Derby favorite at an absurdly low 6-1 in the Future Wager with only two starts, both sprints. There is no denying he was spectacular winning the San Vicente Stakes, but we still don’t know good the runner-up, his stablemate Romanesque, is. Barnes has the looks, the pedigree, the pure speed, and the mental makeup to travel cross-country for his career debut and win, showing a lot of courage, despite making a number of mistakes. He obviously is a quick learner because he was a totally different horse in his next start, running like a seasoned pro. And you have to love his Thoro-Graph jump frpm a “7 ½” to a “3.” So, with all that talent, overwhelming public support in the Future Wager, being named for the well-liked and well-respected backbone of the Baffert operation, and a $3.2 million price tag, his two-turn debut either in the San Felipe or Rebel should be one of the most anticipated Derby preps of the year, especially with some major Derby contenders pointing for both races. One thing we know is that he and Citizen Bull will remain separated, and a trip to Oaklawn for him, whether for the Rebel or Arkansas Derby, is inevitable, as Baffert usually ships horses cross-country who he knows has the mental makeup for it.
6—First Resort (Eoin Harty, Uncle Mo – Fair Maiden, by Street Boss)
He continues to train well at Turfway Park for his 3-year-old debut in the John Battaglia Memorial on February 22. Harty raves about what a great mind he has, which is so important for a horse about to embark on the Derby trail. Harty calls him the complete package, “very laid back; a sweet gentle soul.” The reason he ran him in Canada on grass was because he drew post 1 in the Iroquois Stakes and he didn’t want him getting too revved up early going one turn. He actually ran a big race with a huge final quarter in :23 flat. The Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes was the next logical step being close to home and they knew he liked the dirt. If you are concerned about him wearing front bandages for the first time, don’t be. He was supposed to run in hind bandages only, but Harty sent four bandages with him just as a backup. When the assistant saw the four bandages he assumed they were all to be worn and put them on by mistake. At that point, as Harty said, “it’s not a good time to start messing with them with their motor running.” He then went out and drilled the Iroquois winner and 4-5 favorite Jonathan’s Way by 2 ¼ lengths. He should take to the synthetic surface, training over it every day, and Turfway has produced the Derby winner and runner-up in the past three years.
7—Captain Cook (Rick Dutrow, Practical Joke – Pow Wow Wow, by Indian Charlie)
The Withers has produced major stakes horses like Hit Show, Early Voting, Max Player, and Tax in recent years, and if you are turned off by Captain Cook’s time of 1:51 4/5, take note that the average time over the past five years has been 1:53 4/5. As for Captain Cook, this was only his fourth career start and he had never been farther than seven furlongs. In his previous start he looked spectacular skipping over the slop to romp by 9 ¼ lengths. In the Withers he had to go four-wide on the first turn and remained wide every step of the nine furlongs. After rating beautifully in third he cruised to the lead on the turn under no urging at all and then had Surfside Moon, coming off three grass races, two of them stakes, move right up to his flank. When Manny Franco asked him he drew off from Surfside Moon, who was drawing off from the rest of the field that contained several promising colts. At the wire, after a sharp :12 3/5 final eighth, it was Captain Cook by 2 ¼ lengths, with Surfside Moon 6 ½ lengths ahead of the third horse, who was 7 ½ lengths ahead of the fourth horse. This little colt is very athletic and light on his feet and runs perfectly straight down the stretch. But why I really love this horse is that you will never see a female family like his again. If you follow bloodlines and are into history, his first nine, I repeat, nine, generations are Whitney blood, including Kentucky Oaks and Acorn winner Bird Town, Belmont and Travers winner Birdstone, Ashland winner You All, and multiple major stakes winners Bird Song, Hush Dear, and Honey Dear. When the late Marylou Whitney’s husband John Hendrickson died last year, Keeneland held a dispersal of his horses in November and close friend Vinnie Viola bought all three of his 2-year-olds, including Captain Cook, who had raced once with trainer Norm Casse, for $410,000. What a legacy this would be for one of the great racing families in the history of the sport.
8—Burnham Square (Ian Wilkes, Liam’s Map – Linda, by Scat Daddy)
First off, you have to ignore that he is a gelding considering we’ve had two win the Derby, both longshots, in the past 95 years. I don’t pay any attention to it and all Wilkes knows is that he was a gelding when he got him. That is for the breeders to think about. The only important thing is that he is a talented, improving horse in good hands and he exhibits positive traits in every race he’s run. He just keeps improving, going from what Wilkes called “just a plain ‘ol horse” with little expectations to a flat-out runner, who will go anywhere in a race you ask him to go, whether it’s five or six wide, down on the rail, in traffic, or bulling his way into a clear path. He has several gears and can stop and go if you need him to, and in every case he comes flying with a relentless stretch run. After two close defeats in which he closed fast and just missed going six furlongs and 1 1/16 miles, he broke out big-time with the addition of blinkers and a rider change to Edgard Zayas, showing early speed, making an early bold move on the rail and just pouring it on to win by nine lengths. In the Holy Bull he confirmed that he can do anything you ask. Breaking from the far outside, he was wide going into the turn when Zayas took him right to the rail and made another early move to go from eight lengths back to right behind the leaders. Zayas seemed tempted to try to squeeze through on the inside, but wisely took a hold of him and moved out, bumping with another horse to get a clear lane. He then made his big move, going wide where he likes to unleash his run, and sweeping by a very talented Tappan Street to win by 1 ¾ lengths, with a gap of 9 ¼ lengths to the third horse. In summation, this horse always gives you confidence no matter where he is on the racetrack. That alone makes him a legitimate Derby contender.
9—Keep it Easy (Dale Romans, Hard Spun – Boxwood, by English Channel)
Well, if you’re looking for something positive, Sandman’s huge effort in the Southwest Stakes that had many people jumping on his bandwagon had to boost Keep it Easy’s reputation even a little after the 11-length drubbing he gave Sandman in his career debut. Yes, he hasn’t been farther than 6 ½ furlongs, but that was explained last week and everything about him suggests he is crying out for two turns. Hard Spun, runner-up in the Kentucky Derby and Breeders’ Cup Classic, has sired several Grade 1-winning milers and sprinters, but his son Two Phil’s turned in one of the greatest losing efforts ever finishing second in the Kentucky Derby. Looking at Keep it Easy’s female family it is dominated by stamina influences. His broodmare sire English Channel won the 1 ½-mile Joe Hirsch Turf Classic twice and crushed Arc de Triomphe and Irish Derby winner and European Horse of the Year Dylan Thomas by 8 1/2 lengths in the Breeders’ Cup Turf. English Channel’s sire Smart Strike sired the great Curlin and is the broodmare sire of the two biggest longshot Kentucky Derby winners of modern times, Mine That Bird and Rich Strike. And Keep it Easy’s second dam is by Horse of the Year Mineshaft, a son of A.P. Indy. I still believe this is a very live Derby horse.
10—Ferocious (Gustavo Delgado, Flatter – Napier, by Midnight Lute)
There is no doubt that most of his followers will finally desert him after another sound defeat, and it is understandable. But I am still going to make a case for hanging around at least for another race, and I will make it in only two words: Gustavo Delgado. You have to remember he is not like the trainers we are used to, but more like the trainers we either used to know or are not familiar with. He actually believes in two words that have been for the most part forgotten on the Derby trail, and they are “prep” and “peak.” He is not afraid to lose in the first in order to reach the second. I don’t know for sure how good this horse is and what makes him tick, but what I do know is that he went into the Holy Bull with only three works in the last 90 days. There is no way a horse can be anywhere near 100 percent averaging one work a month. What I will take out of this race is that he definitely was more focused with the blinkers, did not run only in spots this time, and responded with a strong early move to challenge for the lead, hooking a recent stakes winner who still had some run left in him. Simply put, he just got tired, which is understandable. For the first time in his career he came out of a race “very tired,” as indicated by his failure to change leads. We’re talking about a trainer who two years ago took an unraced 2-year-old named Mage who like Ferocious tired to finish a well-beaten fourth in a stakes at Gulfstream, then lost another race before peaking on Derby Day, coming from 16th to win in only his third career start. So for now I will trust Delgado, who was mentored by Juan Arias, the trainer of ’71 Derby winner Canonero II, to get this colt to peak on the first Saturday in May.
11—Tappan Street (Brad Cox, Into Mischief – Virginia Key, by Distorted Humor
Burnham Square belongs ahead of him after beating him fair and square in the Holy Bull Stakes and doing it the right way, but this colt left just as big an impression on me even though I’m not sure just yet if he is a better Derby prospect because he doesn’t have as strong a foundation. You have to take into account that he did most of the dirty work moving early right behind Ferocious and engaging the leaders under a vigorous hand ride, then quickly putting them away and finding himself on the lead turning for home, with Burnham Square moving up behind him in excellent position to pick up the pieces in the final furlong. That’s all fine, and take nothing away from the winner, but the fact is we’re talking about a horse with three lifetime starts who was coming off two races at 1 1/16 miles and a rousing nine-length victory compared to a horse coming off only one seven-furlong race, who as I mentioned was under pressure a long way out to keep up with the far more experienced and accomplished Ferocious and then quickly disposed of him and the Mucho Macho Man Stakes winner Guns Loaded. When Burnham Square charged up alongside him in midstretch, Tappan Street was still stuck on his left lead and didn’t switch to is right lead until winner was by him. Again, I am not saying Tappan Street looks more like a Derby horse, but with only one sprint under him he took as big a step forward, maybe bigger, and given himself a lot of room for improvement. But when they get caught down a shortened stretch after having a clear lead, you want to see them pass that next important test.
12—Poster (Eoin Harty, Munnings – Pin Up, by Tapit)
Unlike his stablemate First Resort, he can get a bit wound up, so Harty has him at his other barn at Tampa Bay Downs to school him in the paddock for his 3-year-old debut in Saturday’s Sam F. Davis Stakes. It’s not every day you see a son of the brilliant Munnings winning a Grade 2 stakes at 1 1/8 miles, but Harty said this is a powerfully built beautiful colt with a big frame to fill into, so perhaps we haven’t seen anywhere near the best of him, especially with him being a very late May 20 foal and won’t even turn 3 until after the Preakness. Flavien Prat admitted he moved too soon on him in the Remsen because he felt the pace was very slow and they were going too easy. As a result, he made an early move, opening a two-length lead at the eighth and then holding on to win by a nose. But he still came home his final three-eighths in a strong :37 flat. Not bad for his dirt debut. So with two impressive wins on grass at a mile and a victory at 1 1/8 miles on dirt, with a fast-closing time, he has a good foundation under him and is still a big baby physically and in age. Now we’ll see how he handles that quirky surface at Tampa Bay. Harty, who was Bob Baffert’s main assistant in those glory years in the late ‘90s, is thrilled to have two big guns for Godolphin, for whom he provided their first major wins from their first stable based in the United States back in 2001.
13—Chancer McPatrick (Chad Brown, Mckinzie – Bernardreamy, by Bernardini)
After a horse finally works following surgery you always want to see a follow-up work a week later, and he did come back with another three-eighths breeze, blowing out in :37 4/5 at Payson Park. He has always been kind of a polarizing horse, with people who love him and others who doubt him, mainly because of his late stretch runs going one turn and the concern following his disappointing performance in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile that he may be a one-turn closer that you often see. Also, even though he came home fast in winning the Champagne Stakes, he was 1-2 in a very weak field and ran down a horse coming off one start, a head maiden victory. His Thoro-Graph numbers are solid and consistent, but he hasn’t made that big forward move yet. Strangely, his “4 ¾” in the Breeders’ Cup was the second fastest number he’s ever run, despite finishing sixth, beaten 6 ½ lengths. I see no reason to believe he’s a one-turn closer judging from the way he methodically picked off seven horses one by one in the Champagne, starting his run nearing the half-mile pole. He was only a length back at the quarter pole and came home in :24 3/5. I am not going to judge his performance at Del Mar as an indicator of whether he is a one- or two-turn horse. All I see is a dual Grade 1 winner who is headed for the Tampa Bay Derby. I don’t even care if he wins on that quirky surface as long as he puts in his run, gets a lot out of the race, and shows us he is back.
14—Bullard (Mike McCarthy, Gun Runner – Reve d’Amour, by Warrior’s Reward)
It looks like we’re going to have a battle of West Point horses when he heads east to take on Sandman in the Rebel Stakes, which could be quite a skirmish, especially if Barnes shows up, as well as several other hot prospects. He continued his string of sharp works on Saturday with a strong five-furlong drill in 1:00 1/5. I admit I don’t know how far he wants to go, but I am going to keep him up here until he shows us how he handles two turns at Oaklawn. As I mentioned last week I like that he ran in the seven-furlong San Vicente strictly as a prep and to keep him sharp instead of waiting for the Robert Lewis Stakes. We may not have learned anything more about him sprinting again, but we might have learned even less had he just run around there futilely chasing a loose on the lead Citizen Bull in the Lewis. When he does go two turns I want it be in a race with a contentious pace. Only then will we get a good idea where he’s at. I still find it hard to believe after the way he ran in the Bob Hope Stakes and being a son of Gun Runner that he was 76-1 in the latest Future Wager. Others have emerged this year, especially last weekend, but I am always reluctant to demote or remove a horse from my initial rankings unless someone really gets me excited, and so far the preps have been pretty workmanlike with a number of new faces stepping up and difficult to separate. So for now I’ll pretty much go with the cards I dealt myself and look at everything more closely over the next week.
15—Sandman (Mark Casse, Tapit – Distorted Music, by Distorted Humor)
A lot of people have jumped on his bandwagon after his huge runner-up effort in the Southwest Stakes following a disastrous start. He has shown steady improvement and obviously a whole new dimension by running such a big race after overcoming adversity. I’m just not sure how strong the opposition was after the troubled trips of Gaming and Patch Adams. But he did out-close a strong stretch runner in Tiztastic and was beaten by a proven stakes horse who was loose on an easy lead. Like many others we will learn a lot more about him when he runs back in the Rebel Stakes against what promises to be a strong, deep field. What really makes him a live contender is his Thoro-Graph pattern, which has him heading towards some serious numbers. In his last four races has gone from an “11 to 8 to 7 to 4 ½.” And with six lifetime starts, four of them at a mile or 1 1/16 miles he’s built a strong foundation.
16—Aviator Gui (Chad Brown, Uncle Mo – Paulistinha, by Tapit)
He’s heading to the Risen Star Stakes, and if there is one horse who should appreciate the 1 1/8-mile distance and the long stretch it is him with his running style and pedigree. Just as a reminder from last week, his sire and broodmare sire have combined to sire five Belmont Stakes winners. His dam is a half-sister to Horse of the Year and Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Gun Runner, his second dam is a half-sister to Horse of the Year and Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Saint Liam, and his female family traces back to the legendary Gallorette. He probably should be ranked higher, but this was a very active and confusing week, and I’m sure we will see him back to where he was ranked last week, or higher, very soon.
17—Coal Battle (Lonnie Briley, Coal Front – Wolfblade, by Midshipman)
He is another who got lost in the shuffle of a chaotic weekend, He has been a machine, winning all four of his starts on dirt, three of them stakes, on fast, muddy, and sloppy tracks. He also takes to any track, having won three straight stakes at Delta Downs, Remington Park, and Oaklawn Park. In fact he has made six starts at six different racetracks and has run well on grass at Kentucky Downs. You may not consider him a Derby horse but you have to admire him and where he came from. After working steadily at his home base at tiny Delta Downs he had his first work at Oaklawn Park, breezing five furlongs in 1:02 3/5 for the Rebel Stakes.
18—Rodriguez (Bob Baffert, Authentic – Cayala, by Cherokee Run)
He may be the sneaky Baffert horse, who showed me a lot in his second-place effort against Citizen Bull in the Robert Lewis Stakes, mainly that he has more than one gear. He no doubt didn’t like where he was, bottled up on the inside, and just backed right out of it as if he was finished, and then suddenly found that other gear and took off like a fresh horse. At one point it looked like he actually was going to test the free-running Citizen Bull cruising along on the lead and make a race out it, but he simply wasn’t ready to match strides with the champ and had to settle for second. So he picked up a few points and put himself in position to likely hit the road and earn his way into Derby. Remember, he is a May 20 foal, so he’s still pretty much a baby with a lot of room for improvement. He seems to have all the tools with a nice fluid stride and a strong enough pedigree for him to keep stretching out.
19—Built (Wayne Catalano, Hard Spun – Sea Garden, by Curlin)
Here we are again with him and Disco Time and still trying to figure out just where they fit. I actually have more of a feeling for Built and put him higher because Disco Time hasn’t worked since the LeComte, while Built turned in a huge work, zipping along in :47 4/5 for the half. Obviously the big test to separate them and see where they fit among the newcomers will come in the Risen Star. I am going to throw out the LeComte because of logistics and track condition, and not knowing where the best place to be was on that surface. I still believe he is a serious horse who looked awfully good winning the Gun Runner Stakes by almost seven lengths on a fast track. And his Thoro-Graph regression from a “2 ¾” to an “8 ¼” was too dramatic to believe.
20—Disco Time (Brad Cox, Not This Time – Disco Chick, by Jump Start)
The bottom line is that he is undefeated and he totally deviated from his previous up close running style to rallying from 10th and closing fastest of all after a very wide trip. I’ll have a better feel for him once he returns to the work tab. From strictly a visual standpoint you had to be impressed with his performance in the LeComte, and we’ll just wait and see if he can kick it up to the next level and remain undefeated. If he does he obviously will zoom up the ladder and become one of the favorites.
KNOCKING ON THE DOOR
After what can best be described as swinging door Saturday we had no choice but to kick a few out the door to make room for those coming in, which is not an easy thing to do especially this early. So, looking for any reasons we can find, we had to bump TREATY OF ROME after Guns Loaded, who beat him in the Mucho Man Man Stakes, stopped badly in the Holy Bull, finishing last beaten 30 lengths.
On Saturday we saw another newcomer named RIVER THAMES put on a show in a one-mile allowance race at Gulfstream for Todd Pletcher. Several weeks ago, WinStar’s Elliott Walden touted me on two horses they were high on. One was Tappan Street and the other was this colt, although Walden did add they weren’t sure how far he wanted to, being by Maclean’s Music and out of a Discreet Cat mare, and also pointed out he was a New York-bred. At the time he had won his debut by 4 ¾ lengths going six furlongs. Stretching out to a mile he was 3-5 and won off by 6 ½ lengths. He did come home his final quarter in just under :26, so it is still too early to know just where this colt fits and where he will show up next for his stakes debut. But he sure did everything the right way on Saturday.
You can say the same for another Pletcher colt GATE TO WIRE, who was extremely impressive beating a stellar field by five lengths in the seven-furlong Swale Stakes, run in a sharp 1:22 2/5. The Donegal Racing-owned son of Munnings sat right behind a blistering pace and just blew the field away in the stretch. Now is the question to stretch out or not to stretch out.
Last week we mentioned the Pletcher colt GRANDE, who won his career debut going a mile on January 11 , but it will be very tight making the Derby. And two other Pletcher colts who showed promise at 2, TIP TOP THOMAS and UNCAGED, both returned to the work tab after setbacks, breezing an easy three-furlongs, so obviously they are far from a race. But there is a Pletcher horse who bears watching.
This week I am featuring an under-the-radar horse that most people know little or nothing about and will be headed to the big-time when he makes his stakes debut in the Risen Star Stakes. I have been ranking the more proven horses this year, but VASSIMO has really caught my eye visually and I’m going to take a chance he is the real deal even though he still needs to get faster on his speed figures if he’s going to peak on Derby Day. But I believe we’re just seeing the tip of the iceberg.
What put me over the edge was watching WinStar’s Rapture demolish a maiden field so impressively last weekend by 6 ½ lengths. In his first start going a flat mile he was out-dueled in the stretch by Vassimo, a first-time starter who edged away late to win by a length with his ears pricked at the wire and Rapture finishing 13 lengths ahead of the third horse. And trainer Todd Pletcher didn’t even have Vassimo cranked up for the race.
He came back and showed a good turn of foot to win an allowance race by 2 ¾ lengths going a mile and 40 yards at Tampa Bay Downs, which Pletcher uses for many of his young horse. I love the little things I’ve seen from him, such as the way he throws his ears up when he hits the wire and how he comes back from his races bouncing on his toes. Galloping out after his allowance win two horses came up on his inside and he took off again and was quickly six lengths ahead of them. Even when working with tough older horses he won’t let them pass him, just as wouldn’t let Rapture in their gallop-out. He is a beautiful mover and switches leads right on cue. Before selling as a yearling at Keeneland for $120,000 the son of Nyquist never missed a day and never had a pimple on him, according to Mike Callanan, co-owner of Greenfield Farms, who sold him.
He’s always been a big brawny colt, who now stands 17 hands tall, and can take a lot of training. His rider Irad Ortiz told owner Shirl Penney, whose amazing Horatio Alger rags-to-riches story will be told at a later date, “Wherever you go with this horse I‘m going. He’s just playing; we have no idea how good he is.” So put all that together and you have a fascinating Derby prospect with a good deal of ability, a strong constitution, and a great mind who still has a lot of room for improvement. If he can be competitive against horses like East Avenue in the Risen Star, the sky’s the limit.
With te Sam F. Davis coming up, we’ll see if JOHN HANCOCK enters following a very impessive maiden victory in fast time going six furlongs at Tampa Bay.
Another horse that needs to be mentioned is the ultra consistent TIZTASTIC, who is a whisper away from being ranked after winning or placing in four stakes on dirt and grass, and most recently was flying at the end of the Southwest Stakes to finish third. After placing in three straight stakes, he’ll need to take it to the next step.
We also have to catch up on the Baffert-trained SAN SABA, the once highly touted Justify colt who was very game breaking his maiden by a half-length going 6 ½ furlongs after dueling through torrid fractions of :21 2/5 and :44 flat. After two similar races he needs to slow it down or learn how to take back off the pace.
Racing historian, author, and award-winning retired journalist for the Daily Racing Form and The Blood-Horse, Steve Haskin was inducted into the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame’s Media Roll of Honor in 2016. Known for his racing knowledge and insightful prose, he has been an exclusive contributor to Secretariat.com since 2020.
So grateful as always for your detailed and precise analysis of the contenders along the Derby Trail, Steve. You never fail to get us excited about the possibilities this time of year!
My wesr coast threesome continues to be Journalism, Barnes, Rodriguez—I like all three over Citizen Bull–for The Derby….
Bill, some good-bad news: Colloquial’s connections announced they will be targeting shorter races in a campaign that might include the Matt Winn on Derby day and the Woody Stephens on Belmont Day. They are pushing back against Derby fever, in other words.
Hi Ms Blacktype
Well, that does it. So much for Colloquial showing up on Steve’s Week Three Derby Rankings. To say that I’m disappointed would be an understatement.
Evidently, his connections must consider him a sprinter/miler type.
Anyway, thanks for passing on that bit of news. It’s not what I expected. 🙁
Maybe Steve will include River Thames in his top prospect list.
Very doubtful, Ms Blacktype. 🙂
Ms Blacktype
More “good-bad news. Owen Almighty, who gave John Hancock all he could handle in the Sam F. Davis is no longer pointed to the Derby. Per Brian Lynch, OA will be pointed to the Pat Day mile on the Derby undercard.
Also, per Brad Cox, John Hancock will bypass the Tampa Bay Derby, and point to either the Louisiana Derby, Florida Derby or the Arkansas Derby.
It’s getting hard to keep up with these recent announcements.
William Hill updates their odds early in the week where there is a CD futures, like this week:
Citizen Bull and Barnes now 9-1;
Sandman 11-1
Disco Time, Sovereignty, and East Ave 18-1
Journalism is pretty generous 30-1 now…
Scientists in Argentina have created the first genetically modified horse… they are avoiding the term “modified” though and using “edited” instead …
The genetecists edited the genes of the best polo mare in the history of Argentina’s sport named Polo Pureza by cutting some selected sectors of the DNA and replaced with improved genomes. In this case they claim that the speed of the new horses would be greater than that of their superior donor. They will have to wait and see if that holds true when their creations start competing though…
The CRISPER-Cas9 is the technique used to allegedly improve the qualities of the offspring … It is the same techinque used to accelerate the production of the COVID vaccines.
The genetic company claims that they are complying with Argentinian regulations and that “it is not considered doping or in the category of genetically modified organisms”… they claim they are just “acclerating” a natural process… they are “introducing a natural sequence into a another natural horse”…
They are currently working on modifying the genes of pigs to use their organs for human transplants…
In the world of Artificial Intelligence we are now having “artificial horses”…this could get out of control if the authorities don’t have a watchful eye on all those developments…
Nelson, scientists have created mice offspring from two male mice after making eggs from the skin cells from male mice. They believe that in the future human reproduction will be possible this way. Nothing surprises me anymore.
Wow Davids … I did not know about that experiment… truly astonishing! maybe stem cells at work there…
Reminded me of the female shark who gave birth without any male around at a Louisiana Aquarium … the act of surviving is full of mysteries
Nelson, they first mentioned it a couple of years ago but the ‘baby mice’ didn’t fully develop however, over the past week or so it was revealed that the scientists have ‘created’ a mouse from two male mice to reach full adulthood.
There are quite a few Science websites with the full story just search for: male mice can reproduce themselves via skin cells
I know Nelson, the first time I read/heard this it was quite shocking to contemplate how advanced we have become from being green slime in a pond. Ha ha
I guess because they can. You’d think they would have more useful problems to solve.
Just to see how my top 20 Derby prospects compare with Steve’s Week Three Rankings, I have the following ranked in preferential order:
1) River Thames
2) Sovereignty
3) Citizen Bull
4) Barnes
5) Journalism
6) Colloquial
7) East Avenue
8) John Hancock
9) Tappan Street
10) Gate to Wire
11) Speed King
12) Sandman
13) Hypnus
14) Coal Battle
15) Jonathan’s Way
16) Built
17) First Resort
18) Chancer McPatrick
19) Captain Cook
20) Sand Devil
Edit: Owen Almighty at 21
Is Burnham Square…. 22?
Here are the entries for the Grade 3 Sunland Park Derby Sunday, Feb. 16 (PP order):
Itsmybirthday
Remember Big Jim
Smash It
Getaway Car
Spenard
Take Charge Tom
McKinzie Street
Touchy
Caldera
Many new faces, but I prefer the ones I know: Getaway Car, McKinzie Street, and Smash It.
Lots of speed ….
I’m anxiously awaiting to see where Colloquial lands on Steve’s Week Three Rankings.
He could not have been more impressive breaking his maiden at Aqueduct, this past Friday, going 6 1/2 furlongs, in 1:16.89, drawing off by 7 open lengths. His Beyer number, at 106, and Equibase Speed figure of 119, are the top figures assigned to this year’s crop of 3 yr. olds. His sire line leads directly to Mr. Prospector, and his dam side reflects considerable class and stamina influence.
It will be interesting to see where Colloquial’s connections will point him for his next outing. possibly the Gotham, or the Tampa Bay Derby.
Colloquial will be in Knocking on the Door segment.
I am curious to see where Steve posts Poster… considering what happens with Ferocious I believe Steve will give Poster another chance especially because the other ranked horses did not run this week.
The question is if John Hancock makes the top 20 … and who could be knocked out if he enters the top 20 or 15…
Based on how John Hancock performed in the Sam F. Davis I would think he lands somewhere in Steve’s top 20. Additionally, the 106 Beyer, and 119 Equibase Speed figure that Colloquial received breaking his maiden at Aqueduct, this past Friday, certainly deserves consideration in Steve’s Week Three Rankings, IMO.
We’ll see in short order.
I would wait to see how Colloquial performs at two turns to place him above Burnham Square for instance…I don’s foresee much happening in this week in the rankings… in the following hours we will know.
Nelson
Based on the class and stamina influence reflected on his dam side, I would think Colloquial is well suited to go long. Bernardini, his dam’s sire, is one of the better broodmare sires out there, IMO. He’s the dam sire of Sovereignty and Chancer McPatrick, two colts on the Derby trail.
On his tail-female side, I noticed that his 3rd dam, Gal in a Ruckus, won the Kentucky Oaks. I would also like to point out two of Secretariat’s daughters, Weekend Surprise and Terlingua, most assuredly passed on his influential stamina genes to their respective sons, A.P. Indy, and Storm Cat, who appear in Colloquial’s 3rd generation.
Bottom line, from a pedigree standpoint, he should be very competitive stretching out, IMO.
Here is my take on the Sam F Davis Stakes. It was a very good race for 2 horses, John Hancock (JH) and Owen Almighty (OA). It was the type of race you wish there wasn’t a loser and that they both would have deadheated. I was very impressed with JH comeback at the end of the race when OA passed him up and he fought back to get the win. JH should move up nicely this week in Steve’s ranking and OA holding his own. JMO but was not impressed with Poster as I just don’t think he is fast enough. Looked like he a clean trip and the early fractions were legit. I would take him back to turf.
Glad Cox will be skipping the Tampa Bay Derby with JH. With only 2 races under his belt and he set all the early fast fractions in the SFD would give him a little more time. In most cases I don’t object to fast turn around but this is one of those times. Also I too think his Beyer was a little low, But then again not a big speed figure guy.
On another thought is Barnes still going to race in the Rebel??? Was expecting a work this past weekend at SA but did not see one. Is he already at OAKLAWN already? Maybe Baffert will wait for the San Felipe with him?!?!?!
East Avenue at Fair Grounds for the Risen Star will have his work cut out for him with all those horses entered in that race. What I like is that Brendan Walsh has been working him behind other horses and Walsh said he doesn’t seem to mind it. If he can be rated it is a big plus for him. Would have liked to have seen a shorter prep race for him before this race. Should be an interesting race.
Getaway Car in the Sunland Derby is a good move but not sure if he is a shoe in for that race. I like him but would not bet the house on him.
Another question is whether Baffert will be sending any horses to Florida and New York for any of those Derby prep races. No word on that that I have seen.
Nice to see Nysos and the Curlin/ Beholder colt have another work. Both a work in progress but a good sign for both.
Have a Great Week everyone !!!
I noticed that Fierceness’ brother Mentee is not nominated to the Triple Crown races. I’m aware that he was moved to the turf for the Breeders Cup, but I wondered if Pletcher was doing that to avoid the top two-year-olds who would all be running in the dirt race. I also know that he ran very badly that day, but one bad performance by an otherwise capable relative of Fierceness can almost be disregarded. So I was surprised that he was not nominated. Does anyone know if he is injured or if his management just decided he is not a classics horse?
Steve:
Just noticed Myriad Love is listed in upcoming 2/22/25 Saudi Derby. If owners were pointing to Kentucky Oaks, would she be in this race?
Thanks…
Getaway Car will be an overwhelming favorite in the Sunland Derby on Sunday February 16.
McKinzie Street will tray to redeem himself after his last place in the San Vicente … the son of McKinzie is now in the barn of Justin Evans.
The undefeated Take Charge Tom (Orlando Mojica/Diodoro Robertino) and Touchy (Joel Rosario/Wesley Ward) are the fastest horses after Getaway Car.
The Coach is attempting a shocker with Caldera … but the 20 points seem to be at Getaway Car hooves in theory.
*try
I thought they were going to Saudi Arabia, with Getaway Car….
Cyclone State was the one confirmed for the Saudi Cup and the UAE Derby.
Cyclone State is confirmed as a starter in the LIsted Saudi Derby – NOT the G1 Saudi Cup.
Yes it is the Saudi Derby which is for 3-year-olds with $1.5million in purse…
The Saudi Cup is a $20million race for four year olds and older…
Thanks for the correction…
David, I meant to say that a better name for John Hancock would have been James Madison !
Betsy, I’ve seen the musical “Hamilton” four times now the sons of Construction can go through the cast for names. Ha ha
It warms the heart though when people say ‘put your John Hancock here’ – trust.
It’s true, lol
John Hancock’s signature on the Declaration of Independence is like 10x bigger than anyone else’s. He probably never thought he’d have a horse named after him 🤣
Matthew, I know that about Hamilton – I was just joking (but I loathe Aaron Burr …Hamilton likely threw away his shot)
I don’t know if you saw, but Rank is entered on Friday …Not thrilled with how he’s being handled
Yes and I think Varney will be Rank’s toughest foe….it’s either turf….ship….or run against Bob—out here….I got a good look at Rank, when he ran at Los Al—good looking horse—I still think he has talent–he keeps running against horses that cost a lot more than he did—he holds hid ground! His recent run…stalking honest fractions then hooking Baeza–who is out of Puca—and Rank ran very well, I am rooting for him–he doesn’t run in “typical” maiden races, he faces off against the “Bob Brigade”..
I thought Doug could have shipped him with Ruben M, and then left the horse in a trusted trainer’s hands so he could run more than a mile
He ran hard and fast last time …my biggest worry is the rail. He’s going to have to gun it …now maybe he can do that, and the jock avoid dueling with Mellencamp …but it’s going to be difficult
He deserves a win – he’s a very sturdy, tough colt
Betsy, Rank has been nominated for the John Battaglia Memorial at Turfway so they might skip Friday…
Oh that’s interesting, David….of course that’s on All-weather, so a total unknown
When is that race? Thanks!
FYI, Jamie tweeted that Heart was invited to the UAE Derby. If you can have your friend show you the tweet, try and do so – the colt looks absolutely gorgeous, with his neck bowed. He’s clearly thriving…
Thanks Betsy I will, the John Battaglia Memorial is on February 22. I remember as a kid Melbourne’s summers used to be dry heat with freezing cold changes. Now is hot with high humidity and literally no change, back in New York or Florida again. Ha ha Can’t wait for summer to end here. You just sweat watering the garden, with a breeze blowing.
Thanks, David!
Hot with high humidity – not a happy combination, lol. Take care of yourself – drink lots of water, wear a hat…
It’s only like that in Florida during the summer – it’s really nice now.
Thanks Betsy, when my father was working for Shell in Colombia S.A. for a couple of years we used to spend the Christmas – New Year Holidays with friends in Florida. Very fond memories.
85 Beyer for John Hancock, which is good considering his second start but it also seems a bit low for me….
Thanks for the information John… the track was playing very fast yesterday at Tampa.
Do you happen to know his debut beyer?
Anyway, he improved 2 points in the Equibase scale to 96… which makes sense to me. I am waiting to see his Brisnet figures
Nelson, a 81 Beyer for John Hancock’s first win.
Thanks John…
I just heard that Sand Devil got a Beyer of 93 yesterday at Aqueduct… it’s an excellent result given it was a tune-up race for the son of Violence…
I wonder what Hymn got, for his debut—ran around 1:10 2/5…was green but has a nice stride—and galloped out far ahead..
Hymn ran 1:10 flat….
Glad and relieved that Journalism worked 5F at SA today in his preparation for the San Felipe. His last work was ten days ago which had me concerned. Obviously he’s doing great and M. Mcarthy should have him ready to roll in 3 weeks. On a side note, I bet $100 on the Chiefs – 1.5 to win the Super Bowl against the Eagles. Mahomes IMO is the much better quarterback.
Super Bowl prediction.
As much as I dislike the KC Chiefs, and the favorable officiating calls the receive game after game, I’ll go with the Chiefs to make it three wins in a row. A three-peat if you will.
I hope that I’m wrong, in my prediction, but this Chiefs team checks a lot of boxes.
How Travis Kelse manages to get wide open so frequently, is a mystery to me. If the Eagles can contain Mahomes with their impressive pass rush and not allow him to escape with his running ability, the Eagles have a good shot to spring the upset.
The Chiefs are listed as the favorite by 1.5 points, with the O/U at 48.5. From my perspective, the Chiefs should be favored by more than 1.5 points, and the O/U is way too low at 48.5.
That said, I’ll go with the Chiefs, -1.5 and take the over at 48.5.
Final score prediction: Chiefs 34, Eagles 24.
Enjoy the Super Bowl, everyone.
I have a gut feeling Phily will dominate on the ground, an old fashioned ground attack–Barkley and Hurts—if they get an early lead I think Phily will be double tough….but only if they grab the early lead….
Well, the Eagles got that early lead, now they’ve a chance to make it 24-0 as the first half ends.
Yeah it’s halftime and Phily looks tough….I don’t watch much pro football anymore—WHEN did they change it to—after kicking it out of the endzone—they get the ball pn the THIRTY? and not the TWENTY? Wha—happened?….
Yes, the NFL has made several rule changes in recent years, none for the betterment of the game, IMO.
The way they line up on kickoffs is down right ridiculous. They (NFL) say the rule changes are intended to make the game safer for the players.
I guess I’m just old school in thinking.
Edit: I guess I’m just old school in my thinking.
Colloquial is the horse that ran so well in the Mentee maiden win, at Saratoga, where everybody was talking about the horse that ran 2nd—comes back and does THAT? Steve has some writing to do!….
Yet another out of a Bernardini mare…
Yes, Betsy if it wasn’t for the A. P. Indy line as broodmare sires Churchill Downs would have reduced the Kentucky Derby to 6 furlongs by now. Ha ha ha
🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
The Derby would have to be run in 3 divisions, lol
You have the Japanese expanding their bloodlines by getting stock from Australia, Europe, and the USA. Europe is bringing in blood from Australia and Japan. Meanwhile, the US is doubling down with what they have with the exception of Peter Brant, Mike Rapole et al.
As much as I like the sons of Tapit as sires and broodmares, for obvious reasons, in most respects it more of the same blood in the US.
Davids, Resolute Racing (John Stewart) has a gelding running in the Risen Star with very interesting pedigree.
Septarian by Prontonico out of Amadeus Melody and trained by Chad Brown.
Yes, Lynda, you wouldn’t get too many runners in the US with so much stamina in the pedigree.
You probably know this but John Stewart has been buying horses of all ages at all the prominent racing nations just recently.
At the January Magic Million Sales on the Gold Coast in Queensland (Australia) he spent $6 million on nine yearlings.
Fascinating to see how things work out. He’s certainly shaking up the orthodoxy. Best of luck to him.
Davids, Mike Repole is also made a number of purchases in Japan.
Yes Lynda, with Mike Repole you sense he may start expanding into competition with major European races as well as in the US turf circuits. Hope so. Repole bought similar lines as what Coolmore are dabbing with, good luck to him.
I am surprised Colloquial is not nominated to the TRiple Crown series… they should do it ipso facto…
Flavian Prat was right in jumping back from Poster to John Hancock… at least this time. Brad Cox has been successful in his unusual tour in South Florida and his chances for the Tampa Bay and Florida Derbies are pretty good.
Today speed was king but Poster did well considering the 2-month+ layoff and coming off a 9F effort. The son of Munnings was running hard at the end but John Hancock and Owen Almighty had already asserted their authority in front of the field. Poster made up only two lengths against the leaders and his gallop out was not that inspiring… but, again this was his first prep and he will be improving next time.
The following are the split times clocked for POSTER today:
23.77 46.87 71.33, 83.82 for 7 furlongs and completed the 1 1/16 in 102.79 seconds finishing the last furlong in 12.73.
He looked a bit tired at the end but his time is a good baseline for the year …
Cox must’ve said a lot, about John Hancock–to get Prat to jump ship—and the colt was all that!….-
Yes Matthew… The same should have happened with Patch Adams in the Southwest… but this time it was a bit more difficult decision between Poster and John Hancock… again he was rigth in handicapping the Sam Davis.
I assume that the agent decided the chances of eventually riding a viable Derby horse from Cox barn are better than that in Harty’s case.
Prat has been the regular rider of Chancer McPatrick, so, he and his agent will be jumping ship again in John Hancock continues his derby journey via the Tampa Bay Derby.
Brown got the services of Prat for Praetor and Rapture who might ascend in the ranks in the coming three months… nice problems to have though for the champion jockey
*Correction: Cox’s Rapture was ridden by Prat in his two starts and Brown had Prat’s services as regular for Praetor.
Matthew, it can’t be underlined enough that John Hancock was running in only his second race and in his first stakes race. Yet the colt was ice cold under severe pressure and wins.
And John was the strongest in the gallop out as well…!
Nelson, as much as I like John Hancock, in his next two races I hope he is taken back or runs into some mishaps so we can see how the horse responds under unfavorable conditions.
There is quite a few Steve has in his top echelon who have had reputations built on relatively golden trips.
Prat is back at The Great Race Place, has won two so far—including the Sweet Life Stakes, down the hill….Prat and Irad were battling in deep stretch all day, at Tampa yesterday–a sight to see! Two fabulous jockeys—world class—James Mcdonald would make a threesome of talented riders, there are many good ones, those being my top three….
What we saw yesterday between the two superior jockeys is a preamble of how close the championship will be this year …
Agree! Saratoga 2025! Prat had a terrific 2024, criss-crossing the country winning stakes races—Irad is the standard of greatness, and Prat has never beat him, for a jockey meet title…Saratoga is the place to see the two doing battle, I can’t wait!..
Matthew, I’ve been following Fabian Prat’s career from the start but now he is at a higher plane now, oozes confidence.
I would add Oisin Murphy and Ryan Moore to your list.
Sorry, Flavien.
A full field of thirteen have been entered in the G2 Risen Star Stakes, at the Fair Grounds, on Saturday, Feb. 15th.
1) American Promise
2) Jonathan’s Way (probable 3rd favorite, 3-1 range)
3) Vassimo (undefeated in two starts, could surprise with Irad Ortiz Jr. in the saddle)
4) East Avenue (probable favorite, 3/5 range)
5) Chuck of Gold
6) Seatle Road
7) Septarian (with Prat in the saddle, anything is possible)
8) Giocoso
9) Built (probable 2nd favorite, 5/2 range)
10) Render Judgment (longshot?)
11) Jolly Samuri
12) Vamos Carlitos
13) Magnitude
50 Derby points will be awarded to the winner.
On a side note, per Todd Pletcher, River Thames came out of his impressive one-mile AOC win in good order and will point to the Fountain of Youth on March 1st. For a number of reasons, I’ve moved River Thames to #1 on my top 10 Derby prospects list.
1) River Thames
2) Sovereignty
3) Citizen Bull
4) Barnes
5) East Avenue
6) Journalism
7) John Hancock
8) Colloquial
9) Tappan Street
10) Gate to Wire
My current list of Derby eligibles are:
Citizen Bull, Baffert
East Avenue, Walsh
Burnham Square, Wilkes
Journalism, McCarthy
Barnes, Baffert
Sovereignty, Mott
Tappan Street, Cox
Disco Time, Cox
First Resort, Harty
Rodriguez, Baffert
Filling the starting gate:
Chancer McPatrick, Brown
Poster, Harty
Bullard, McCarthy
Captain Cook, Dutrow
Sandman, Casse
Aviator Gui, Brown
Built, Catalano
Jonathan’s Way, Bauer
Coal Battle, Briley
There could very well be two Japanese and the winner of the UAE Derby making up the Derby field.
Hey Bill and Nelson:
My top prospects list is overflowing. I have 16 on my list, which doesn’t even include River Thames. I found John Hancock more impressively yesterday than Sand Devil, but the latter got a much higher Beyer number (93 compared to 85). Numbers aren’t everything, as Steve says.
Here goes:
East Avenue
Citizen Bull
Tappan Street
Burnham Square
John Hancock
Barnes
Coal Battle
Rodriguez
Journalism
Sandman
Sovereignty
Captain Cook
Sand Devil
Colloquial
Tiztastic
Patch Adams
Nice list, Ms Blacktype
Excluding River Thames just might come back to bite you down the Derby trail. I noticed that Nelson excluded River Thames on his list as well. Let’s see how he performs in the Fountain of Youth and go from there. I love River Thames’ pedigree, with speed on top and a ton of class/stamina influence on the bottom. His dam side reflects some of the past greats, too numerous to mention.
Good luck, Ms. Blacktype
HI Bill… I see Pletcher chances greatly diminished this year following my comparative analysis based on the list on Triple Crown nominations as I posted earlier…. I hope you had read it… I don’t see the probabilities on Pltecher side this time…for instance, in my estimation he got only 10 to 17% probability of getting the points with horses who have not run last year (like Grande and River Thames). His best horses are lagging and Showcase is still sidelined… his New York breds are facing Linda Rice and Dutrow in the big apple… maybe any of those two fastest milers (Grande and River) go and win the Gotham but Captain Cook, Sand Devil and Sacrosanct migth be big hurdles to overcome…
I feel like there is a situation of “a new sheriff in town” with Cox taking over the East with his Florida contingent and Sacrosanct in New York. Grande or/and River Thames will have to face Burnham Square, Sovereignty and Tappan Street among other good ones in the FoY and Florida Derby…
Until I see Grande and River Thames running against the myriad of good horses of top barns I won’t judge their chances of even getting the points… i.e. Vassimo is vying for 50 points in the Risen Star but he has to contend with East Avenue, Built, and Jonathan’s Way no less… this is the kind of situations Pletcher will have hard time navigating especially given his relatively depleted stock so far…we shall see.
Hi Nelson
Many thanks for your informative post.
Just out of curiosity, where did you get your information that Sovereignty is pointed to the Fountain of Youth?
Thanks, Nelson.
Bill…Horseracingnation is showing Sovereignty as “possible” for the FoY …it could very well happen as the son of Into Mischief has two consecutive workouts since January 31 …
Good selections Ms Blacktype… I am glad that you are also optimist about Tappan Street and Burnham Square… I see both doing really well in the Florida road to the Derby…!
and Sand Devil looked really good yesterday….!
In only his second start, John Hancock not only won the Sam Davis (previously a Grade 3 race), he set a new stakes record doing so. He’s clearly a very nice colt.
Yesterday, I had the feeling a really good 3YO might race so I combed entries, but I never thought it would be at Aqueduct. It turned out I was right — Colloquial broke his maiden there with an astounding 106 Beyer. His only previous race was a second to Mentee last June (with an 88 Beyer). That said, he’s a son of Blue Grass Stakes winner Vekoma (one of those horses on a previous Triple Crown trail who “paddled”) out of a Bernardini mare. Looks like a really good colt, if he’s not too fast for his own good. BTW, he’s inbred to Storm Cat (3×5), Fappiano (5×5) and our beloved Secretariat (also 5×5).
I was also pleased to see Sand Devil won the Damon Runyon by a neck over a pretty good horse, National Identity.
From charts on his 1st race:
was urged along off the pace, raced inside most of the turn, climbed some behind horses near the five sixteenths pole then angled to the three path, turned into upper stretch under a drive, found his best strides in the final furlong, closed fast on the winner late and just missed while clear for the place.
That was a 5 F race.
David, AP Kid is entered next Sat at GP – 1 mile! I think he’s very talented …I hope so, as HAP needs good performers, especially good colts here
Matt, Rank is entered next Friday at 1 mile. I don’t get why Doug won’t ship him to run longer….sigh
I’m not very confident. Although I think he ran a better race than Baeza against Rodriguez, Rank has drawn the rail – so he’ll be forced to go to the lead and duel with Mellencamp. I think Baeza will be a heavy fave, so at least Rank will be a good price. I do think he’s looking like a horse who will always find someone or two better…but I’d still like to see him stretch out
Betsy, if A. P. Kid could’ve the one you’ve been waiting for going by the pedigree and sales tag of $275, 000 at the Keeneland September Sales. The dam, Lady Mamba, went for $1,000,000 at the Keeneland September Sales. Fingers crossed.
lol it’s meant to say, A. P. Kid could be the one…
I hope so!
Congrats on one of your faves winning – as a history buff, I love the name John Hancock!
Thanks Betsy, yes, clever naming being a son of Constitution. Many connections with history.
I shouldn’t at this because i love Alexander Hamilton – but no horse should be named Alexander Hamilton because he’ll always lose a duel …too soon? 🤣
Well Hamilton had other duels, he only lost his last one!…
Heart looks like a really good one, but we don’t know if he’ll ever run here…Only 2 more weeks until the Al Bastikaya!
So, yeah – I have high hopes. The extra time no doubt did him good – he’s a beautiful colt, dark bay and solid, with a big blaze
🤞🤞🤞🤞🤞🤞
Yes, Betsy, Heart of Honor is a beautiful colt and, fingers crossed, he takes another step forward.
I just discovered a video at The Blood-Horse website: “Osborne Highlights Team for Dubai Racing” November 27, 2024. It goes for almost 12 minutes. There is a little segment on Heart of Honor which starts about 1 minute 50 seconds in .Enjoy.
I saw that awhile ago, David….thanks…but if you search Heart of Honor Osborne on Twitter, you’ll see a recent interview with Jamie….good stuff! He says, among other things, that Heart isn’t a finished project
HAP filly Margie’s Intention backed up her soppy track big score maiden win with a hard fought win against NW1….defeating a much more experienced SP filly. Margie galloped out way, WAY in front – this pretty filly really wants to run long
Thanks Betsy, I’m not on Twitter(X) or Facebook but have friends who are so I will check it out.
I’m really looking forward to A. P. Kid’s race at Gulfstream Park.
It’s a cool interview …my friend is so impressed with British trainers and foreign racing writers compared to those here, lol
Betsy, I can appreciate that. When you go for a tour to the National Horse Racing Museum at Newmarket in Suffolk they will show you basically the differences between the US method and European method of training horses. You’ll love Newmarket Training Grounds.
I like a Rank and Varney exactly box….
Hooray for John Hancock! He certainly did himself proud with the brilliant performance that he gave in the Sam F. Davis today at Tampa. His stretch duel with Owen Almighty was a thriller and John Hancock was very game to prevail for the win. Next logical step would be the Tampa Bay Derby, I would imagine.
Poster also put in a good effort, coming on late. He’s a player, for sure. The Derby Trail is starting to get interesting. Bring it on!
Exactly, Dewey, the Derby Trial is starting to heat up dramatically and those still adorned with last year’s laurels need to prove that last year’s achievements are not just simply ancient history. Haha
Well put Davids. Eastern Avenue gets tested for his return to action in next Saturday’s Risen Star Stakes. Looking forward to seeing how he looks.
Yes, Dewey, I was trying to gauge who might be running in the Risen Star but those who are Early Bird nominations for the Louisiana Derby are also automatically eligible for the Risen Star so who knows really.
The Derby Trail has transformed from Sleeping Hollow to Coney Island within just a few days. Ha ha
The entries are out for the Risen Star, Davids. I believe there are 13 entries.
Thanks Dewey, it should be an interesting race especially to see how East Avenue has progressed or not over winter.
Owen Almighty gave it his all but came up a little short in the Sam F. Davis. John Hancock, the WinStar Farm homebred, prevailed by a 1/2 length to remain undefeated.
Flavien Prat was not intimidated by Irad Ortiz Jr. and continues to stamp himself as the best rider in the country. Flavien Prat is the man!
I’ll be paying particular attention on which colt Prat rides in the Derby.
Under pressure almost all the way, OA led in deep stretch and JH still came back and beat him.
Impressive run by John Hancock—took pressure and staved off his rival—first time two turns first time winners—he did what Citizen Bull did not—took pressure….
Yes Matthew, not bad for his second race John Hancock signed his name as one to follow. I hope they take him back at some stage to see if John Hancock is more than one dimensional which I believe he is but you want to see it.
“John Hancock signed his name as one to follow”. Good one, Davids. Looks like Steve might have some competition when it comes to headlines, ha, ha! I love it.
Dewey, I have a fairly impressive movie poster collection so you learn from the experts on how to catch the eye.
David’s do you have “Fallen Angel”? They filmed it at a house down the street from me–Dana Andrews and Linda Darnell, in all of her beauty!….
Rah for John Hancock! I’d never seen him run before, but I sure was impressed by the way he battled back against Owen Almighty in the stretch. He set a stakes record, too!
Yes, arlingtonfan, one to add to your list. Not sure if 10f would be ideal but they all have to prove that anyway. Poster ran a pleasing race as well, all things considered.
Very nice race by John Hancock, was pressured most of the way under fast fractions.
This should move him up on Steve’s next week ranking.
Good race by Owen Almighty too.
Yes, Gary, a courageous win by John Hancock and well handled by Prat. Hopefully, they give him some more scope next time to see what they have.
Poster ran on reasonably well so will be better prepared next time out.
Late runners most of the times hit the underneath of the exotics. I was concerned about that, although I was concerned about JH, but per my calc. (I do my own) this was very impressive(a big step forward).
FYI look up that winner of Aquaducts MSW race yesterday, that is also one to watch.
Thanks Gary, will do. Yes, it was a big step for John Hancock but it just gets tougher from now on. I’m a believer.
Hymn—by McKinzie/Paynter—looked awesome, breaking his maiden in debut run….green but the kick was in full display—I was impressed….
Oaklawn….
Race #8, at GP is coming up in a few. I’ll box Harbe, Crudo, Summer Vibes and X Y Prime in a $1.00 superfecta bet.
safe trips to all.
Just a quick prediction, not done handicapping.
Poster with Treaty of Rome and O A for exacta and trifecta, with 8/3 for superfecta and Hi-5 if that bet is allowed on this race
I can’t stop asking myself if Poster would get a bit more respect after the Sam F. Davis.
His trainer has sited Poster under the shadow of First Resort, top jockey Flavian Prat left him to ride a debut winner and he is the third choice in the morning line.
Brisnet has Poster below Owen Almighty, Camp Hale, Naughty Rascal and Dr Ruben M in its Prime Power table. Stakes experience is registered in its “Current Class” and Poster and Treaty of Rome are the top two there though…they are also top two in the “Last Pace Last Race” list.
Even Equibase is placing Poster below John Hancock, Owen Almighty and Naughty Rascal in its projected class ranking.
Will the Remsen victor be overwhelmed by the speed of Owen Almighty and John Hancock or be favored by it?
Antonio Gallardo will be piloting Poster. The Spanish rider might not have the stature of Preat but he knows very well when and how to move over the Tampa track. This familiarity will be helpful to successfuly navigate the expected searing pace in the Sam F Davis.
Anyway, I am proposing a $24 Superfecta with Poster on top as follows:
7-Poster
2-Treaty of Rome/3-John Hancock/6-Owen Almighty/9-Smoken Boy
Good luck and safe trips to everyone!
Hey Nelson
I’ll key Owen Almighty on top, with Treaty of Rome, John Hancock, Poster and Naughty Rascal underneath.
That is: 6/2,3,7,8/ 2,3,7,8/2,3,7,8, in my $2.00 superfecta p/w wager. Cost: $48.00
Good luck Nelson.
Good thinking Bill… very logic recipe there indeed.
Irad Ortiz Jr. will be madly looking for redemption riding Owen Almighty…
Good luck Bill.
In any given year, the top Derby prospects are usually the winners of the 100-point, 9-furlong races coming up in about two months. At this juncture on the Derby trail, we can only go by what we’ve seen so far from this year’s crop of 3yr. olds. Steve’s Derby Weekly Rankings is certainly a great source to find those early prospects.
In my last rankings, I had Sovereignty at the top, followed by Citizen Bull and Barnes as my top three prospects. After watching the video replays of River Thames’ two career wins, I’m convinced he’s a serious Derby prospect moving forward. His sire line leads directly to Mr. Prospector, and his broodmare sire line leads directly to Norther Dancer.
This mating cross has produced 19 winners of Triple Crown races.
He probably inherited his impressive speed from his sire Macleans Music, and the class and stamina influence on his dam’s side is hard to ignore. Past greats, such as Grindstone, Touch Gold, Buckpasser, Unbridled, Pleasant Colony and Ogden Phips great mare, Numbered Account are there for all to see.
As Steve mentioned in his KOTD segment, WinStar Farm President, Elliott Walden said he was very high on two horses, Tappan Street and River Thames.
It remains unclear where Todd Pletcher will test RT for class and distance, but I suspect it will be the Fountain of Youth (Mar. 1st) or the Tampa Bay Derby (Mar. 8th).
That said, I will move River Thames to the top of my Derby prospect list, followed by Sovereignty, Citizen Bull, Barnes and Journalism as my top five.
BTW, for those of you folks out there that give some degree of credence to the X-Factor, large heart gene, River Thames’ dam Proportionality, follows the zig-zag pattern back to War Admiral. He, along with Blue Larkspur, Princequillo and Mahmond were noted carriers of the Large Heart gene. I realize there are many skeptics of the so called LHG, but based on the studies of Dr. Fredrick Fregin, an internationally renowned equine cardiologist, there just might be something to the LHG concept.
Obviously, we don’t know if River Thames has a larger heart than his peers, but he just might. Just something to ponder.
TP 65 and 2.
Had the favorite in 2024
Best opponent last out a turf dirt transferee
Nice post Bill. I really enjoyed your research…
On my side I can tell you that I foresee Tappan Street being the top Derby hopeful for Brad Cox. I strongly believe that he will be way more competitive if change leads in timely manner.
His damsire, Distorted Humor, came to prominence thanks to the exploits of Funny Cide, Drosselmeyer, Flower Alley, Any Given Saturdy, Regal Ransom, and Consolidator among many other Stakes winners.
But Distorted Humor has been a greater broodmare sire. He’s been leading broodmare sire, with his daughters producing 157 black-type winners, including 9 champions led by the great Arrogate. This year the most prominent maternal grandsons of Distorted Humore are Citizen Bull, Patch Adams, Sandmand, Ashley’s Archer, Incentive Pay, Natural Rise (the Japanese winner of the Cattleya Stakes); and there are a couple of prospects ready for a promising debut: Cornucopian (Into Mischief) for Baffert and Meritorious (Honor A.P. – Katherine by Distorted Humor) for Riley Mott.
Tappan Street’s second dam is half to Bullsbay winner of the Whitney Handicap. The sire of his second dam is Newfoundland… not known in the pedigrees of Derby runners but he is $3.3 million son of Storm Cat who had a decent campaign for Todd Pletcher. Newfoundland won the Canadian Turf Handicap on the slop, and the Skip Away Handicap. He was second in the Suburban and Jockey Gold Club just missing by a neck and a head against Peace Rules and Funny Cide respectively.
Newfoundland was sold for stud duties to Chile in 2008 where he sired 28 Stakes winners out of 128 winners from his first 9 crops there.
Tappan Street descends from family 13c, the same as Mr. Prospector and Seattle Slew.
Again, what he did in the Holy Bull in his 2nd start and with less than perfect lead work sets him for better and bigger things in the coming weeks…
Thanks for the reply, Nelson
As you well know, I’m a big fan of the numerous Into Mischief colts on this year’s Derby trail, Tappan Street is certainly one of those colts. I have him listed in my top ten Derby prospects.
I noticed that Bob Baffert has kicked up Cornucopian’s last two workouts to 5 furlongs, so it appears he’s getting close to his debut race.
The Sam F. Davis is coming up in a few. Enjoy the race.
An Into Mischief Quarter horse, 3yo filly debuts from the rail, with a fast horseddrawn in the two….Los Al race eight tonight..
Hi Matt… you are luring Bill Dawson to also look at Quarter Horses now …LOL
No thanks, Nelson. 🙂
Not often I add a Derby futures horse this late, but the Japanese filly that beat the boys in the December 11th Japan Derby points race, the same race Forever Young and Derma Sotogake won prior 2 years, was just added at 300-1…definitely worth a few $$$ at those odds!
Other betters must have been waiting too: She’s now 100-1
90-1!
Forgot to name the horse: Myriad Love.
Steve, do you have any thoughts re this horse?
Thsnks!
She’s pointing for the Oaks if you want
to bet on her
Thanks for reply!
Thoughts on COLLOQUIAL ???
106 beyer
119 ESF
Very impressive.
Won by 7 lengths, geared down. I’m wondering if Colloquial paddles, like his sire Vekoma. At any rate, Colloquial has stamped himself as a serious Derby contender.
It will be interesting to see if George Weaver points him straight to the Gotham, on March 1st (with three weeks rest) or elsewhere.
Not only geared down, that track is playing very slow, so if you did pace figures, he was 5 lengths faster in the pace and he exploded in the final time.
Dr Ruben M beat Rank three quarters, good recent works, for O’Neill…he got outta dodge, so to speak, an eastern expedition for a decent three year old….I always have thought Rank was a good horse, maybe this barnmate is capable here….
Hi Bill… I welcome your scouting maiden races to spot any potential Triple Crown protagonist.
You also set the handicapping wheel on motion by stating your bets; which I also appreciate.
Regarding the 8th race at Gulfstream tomorrow I see that you picked four debutants (Harbe, Crudo, Summer Vibes and X Y Prime) for a Superfecta box. Typicaly when first starters are prominent in the morning line it means that they have shown talent in the mornings.
However, unless any of the 6 debutants are unstoppable forces there, this time, I will trust the angles of experience, turf-to-dirt and great early speed to try resolving the race.
Sometimes the notes you take after any given race are useful for future handicapping.
In the Coaching Club undercard at Saratoga last year there was a MSW where as many as three 2-year old were edgy and jumpy. The worst behaved was Ranger Battalion who got lose in the post parade and went almost 2 furlongs in open gallop. The son of Omaha Beach and maternal grandson of Into Mischief was not scratched and ran a very credible race pressing the tempo and fading to 5th only 4 lengts behind the winner. In that race two other first starters, Dapper Moon and Filoso finished 2nd and 4th respectively. Subsequently, Filoso was third behind East Avenue and Ferocious in the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity with Dapper Moon finishing 4th.
I was expecting to see Ranger Battalion reappearing sprinting but Bill Mott decided to use a Gulfstream turf race at a mile to break a 6-month layoff. The quality of the field Ranger Battalion had faced in his Saratoga debut (back on July 20th) led to him being the 3-to-1 choice in that turf race two weeks ago.
One must trust Bill Mott making the rigth move using the mile on turf for conditioning and equiping Ranger Battalion with blinkers for his 6-furlong task tomorrow. The jockey Emisael Jaramillo has a knack for breaking swiftly from the gate which is a plus at 6 furlongs.
In my Trifecta I will be keying Ranger Battalion (#3) for 1st and 2nd with 1-Multiverse(9/2), 6-Summer Vibes (6/1), 11-Captain Eddie (8/1), and 12-Share the Ludt (10/1) … and see what happens.
Harbe or X Y Prime could be included at the bottom upon watching them in the post parade though…
Good luck Bill with your planned Superfecta…
Thanks, Nelson.
One of the reasons that I picked the first-time starters that you referenced, is their respective riders. Hot jockey Luis Saez will ride Harbe, Johnny V. aboard Crudo, Joel Rosario on Summer Vibes and Javier Castello on X Y Prime.
In addition to their riders, I like their pedigree’s, their latest workouts and a gut feeling about these four colts moving forward.
Good luck with your trifecta, Nelson.
Continuing with my appraisal of the collective talent in the barns of the top 5 trainers featured in the list of Triple Crown nominations I am reporting the numbers of Brad Cox.
The up-and-coming trainer, who has trained 16 Grade One winners, had the most promising debut in the Derby in 2021 with the favorite Essential Quality but he won the roses with Mandaloun. Brad Cox’s Derby business has been growing ever since with 3 representatives in 2022, 4 in 2023 and 2 in 2024.
This year Brad Cox again looks in good position to send multiple trainees to the Derby gate. He got 14 nominees with excellent collective quality.
You see 10 winners out of those 14 (71%) with 7 having Stakes experience already. Only 4 are still maiden with only one sidelined (Rothko). Cox has 2 nominees ready to debut (Weaponized and Shangrala Road) and one about to win in his 3rd start (Final Gambit)…
Disco Time and Sacrosanct are the only Stakes winners for Cox so far. His other horses with Stakes experience are Tappan Street, Patch Adams, Admiral Dennis, Uncle Jim and Gunmetal. All of them could very well grab enough Derby points over the next 3 months. John Hancock is running in the Sam Davis tomorrow…
I am particulary interested in Tappan Street as the one I trust to be progressing the most among all Cox’s Derby hopefuls. Patch Adams may have a valid excuse for this lackluster 4th in the Southwest but I need to wait and see how he fares next time on a fast track…
Brad Cox looks in far better situation than Todd Pletcher in terms of (posible) Derby participation this year… especially because Essential Quality’s trainer is assaulting Florida with some of his best talents.
If you ask me, I would say that Brad Cox and Chad Brown hold the best hands in the East.
The trainer of Sierra Leone will be looking to strike back with Chancer McPatrick, Aviator Gui, Treaty of Rome, Hill Road, Praetor and perhaps Septarian. Hill Road now in the barn of the 5-time champion trainer will be likely making headlines whenever he runs.
Davids inquired about McCarthy and Harty. They might not have the stockpile of the top guns but Bullard, Journalism, Poster, and First Resort are seriously putting both trainers in the Derby map this year.
Nelson, Pletcher and Asmussen never were on my dance card. Over fifteen-years ago,stated on several sites,the Derby is the one race he never wins. How am I doing so far?
You are doing great Mike… Asmussen won’t have any Epicenter this year as Tiztastic is his only hope …
Not sure if Tiztastic will be in the Rebel or not. If so, it should be a very competitive race.
Tomorrow’s Sam F. Davis Stakes is an intriguing race. My attention will be on John Hancock who won his debut at Tampa on January 8th, going 6f in 109:45 (94E). He’s a Constitution colt with an abundance of speed. Not sure how far he wants to go but he looked comfortable drawing off in the end. Flavien Prat comes in to ride for Brad Cox. ML 3-1.
This is a sentimental choice for me as I retired from John Hancock Financial Services in Boston after 30 years’ service. Go Big John!
I’m riding on John Hancock as well Dewey, along with Poster. I’m not truly convinced either on how far they want to go really but you never know. The stamina test is the Belmont Stakes however. There have been many winners of the Kentucky Derby who weren’t best suited at 10f. Fingers crossed.
John Hancock Financial Services has a fine signature, I always liked the brand.
John Hancock was a great place to work when it was a Mutual insurance company. Prior to 2000, it de-mutualized and concentrated on the bottom line under pressure of the stock market. Then, the layoffs came to trim expenses (not quite as bad as what our Federal government is experiencing under Field Marshall Musk).
I was one of the few remaining in our Group Life Division before it was sold to Met Life. Rather than move to New Jersey, I took my retirement and moved to Lexington (I’m 4 miles from Keeneland).
p.s. Yes, that John Hancock really had a fine signature. I’m sure that he got an A in penmanship. lol
Dewey, John Hancock provided a very nice win and was not at all intimidated by Otis Jr’s tactics. We may have a serous contender with John Hancock, Poster ran on well which was pleasing.
Sad to read about what happened at your work just a sign of the times and couldn’t agree more with you on Musk.
Friends in the Science and Health sector have told me of the distressing happenings to them by the Federal Government.
You are so lucky living so close to Keeneland, a wonderful track and the sales, just perfect. The wind at times can take your breath away though. Haha You can’t have everything.
Ah yes, that Keeneland wind. That’s proof that you’ve been there. lol.
A few days too often, Dewey. Ha ha Never forgotten.
With only one major Derby prep this weekend, be sure not to miss Sand Devil in the Damon Runyon Stakes tomorrow at Aqueduct (post time is a very early 1:10 p.m.). The son of Violence is an unbeaten New York-bred who won an allowance for statebreds by 12 lengths in his last start. Owner Chuck Broman and trainer Linda Rice are using the Runyon as a prep for the Gotham and Wood — and a possible trip to Kentucky. His female family, which descends from the Group 1 Argentinian winner Auxey, includes major winners Antespend, Friends Lake, and Seeking the Ante.
Thanks for the reminder and your information about Sand Devil’s ffemale family Ms Blacktype. I received the alert by my virtual stable yesterday. Sand Devil should win the 7-furlong prep as the 2/5 ML favorite.
Sand Devil and Sacrosanct are the New York breds with the best chances to make it to the Derby.
Hi Ms Blacktype
Thank you for pointing out the Chester R. Broman Sr./Mary R. Brown homebred, Sand Devil. Based on the success of homebred colts that have won the KD, Sand Devil is certainly a colt to keep an eye on moving forward. As you mentioned, his tail-female side is very impressive. He appears to stand head and shoulders above the rest of the Damon Runyon field. Listed at 2/5 on the morning line, in a field of five, it’s probably a race worth watching, but there’s no value betting Sand Devil at those odds.
Thanks to you, I’ll add Sand Devil to my Derby watch list.
BTW, I expect to see Sand Devil on Steve’s Week 3 Rankings or at least mentioned in his KOTD segment.
Good luck, Ms Blacktype
Thanks Bill and Nelson. I hope Sand Devil does well and progresses on to open stakes.
Curl and Hold, by Curlin, out of Beholder, by Henny Hughes sold at auction for a cool $4.0 million, to Amr Zedan (Zaden Racing), in August of 2023. Zedan assigned Bob Baffert as his trainer. For whatever reason, Curl and Hold does not show up in the Equibase database, so it’s unclear how he is progressing with his workout regimen.
If there’s anyone out there that can provide any information on how Curl and Hold is progressing, I would appreciate a reply.
Thanks.
I could not copy/paste the video/link here but the horse you mentioned, still unnamed as far as I know, has had some workouts in recent weeks.
If you search Curlin Beholder on Twitter (or “X”) the video should come up in the results (posted by several people in mid-January).
Many thanks, AC
I’ll check out the link that you referenced.
.
Playa Del Mar, by Into Mischief, out of Flor De La Mar, by Tiznow is set to debut at Tampa Bay Downs, on Saturday, Feb. 8th. He’s fired a couple of bullet works for Bill Mott and appears ready for this 5 1/2-furlong race. He’s listed as the 2nd favorite on the morning line, at 3-1. His outside post, (p/p 11) could work against him, so hopefully he breaks well.
On a side note, it’s not that often you see a filly trying to break her maiden against the boys, but that’s what My Little Wildcat will attempt to do in this race.
BTW, Over the Mark, by Army Mule, out of She Beast, by The Factor is the m/l favorite at 5/2. Brad Cox is the trainer for Over the Mark.
Referenced race is the 6th, on the Sam F. Davis undercard.
Thanks for the reminder about the Godolphin’s debutant… Playa del Mar is debuting on February 9th in race 6 at Tampa Bay … please, note that it is Sunday and not Saturday.
I was wondering why Bill Mott chose a 5.5-race for Playa del Mar first start instead of a Saturday MSW at 1 mile 40 yards also at Tampa but then I realized that the brilliant trainer has a million-dollar prospect McCorvey a son of Curlin out of the great Songbird in that race…so there you have another exciting blue blood horse debuting before the Sam Davis so we can draw useful comparisons.
Anyway, a Godolphin debutant by Into Mischief out of Stakes female family can not be overlooked… but seeing Tiznow as a grandsire makes you think about longer distances…!
BTW McCorvey is nominated to the Triple Crown whereas Playa del Mar is not … that could be the reason of their allocations for their respective debuts…
Noted.
Nelson
Thanks for pointing out that Playa Del Mar will debut on Sunday, the 9th and not the 8th. I’m not sure how I missed that. And thanks for the heads up on McCorvey.
I’ll be paying particular attention to that 7th race, that includes a couple of Todd Pletcher hopefuls, Candytown and Weekendsandwhiskey.
Good luck if you bet the race, Nelson.
Another salient detail I draw from the list of Triple Crown nominations is the falling of Todd Pletcher’s nominees and winners at this point.
Last year Pletcher nominated 46 trainees with 21 winners (46%) led by champion Fierceness, Locked, Noted, Tuscan Sky, Agate Road and Speak Easy. This year he has 9 winners out of 30 nominees (30%). The other Pletcher horses are lagging behind with 9 nominees yet to make their first starts.
The history of Pletcher in the Derby started with the Century. His debut at the run for the roses involving 4 runners in 2000 propelled him as the go-to trainer for owners thirsty of Derby glory.
Pletcher’s tally in the Derby is far from stelar but I just wanted to highlight that 83% of his entries had 2-year-old campaigns.
So far the only ones fitting this profile are Gate to Wire, Tenacious Leader, Tip Top Thomas, Uncaged, and Showcase who is sidelined since August and has not worked since. The former looked good in the Swale and the other 3 are getting ready to run in the coming weeks.
The undefeated River Thames, Vassimo, Grande, and even Disruptor seem to have the raw talent to reach the Derby.
Crudo (Justify-Blossomed, by Deputy Minister) is debuting for Pletcher and Boby Flay this Saturday at Gulfstream (8th) as the 4-1 ML favorite. Crudo is full brother to Awesome Result, a big and strong filly undefeated in 7 starts in Japan including 3 Stakes and $913K in her bankroll.
Crudo has 9 breezes with 5 bullets at Palm Beach Downs since November 30. As Bill Dawson has stated in two posts, there are a couple of other nice debutants …
It is difficult to picture Pletcher not having a runner in the Derby(it has happened only once back in 2003) but this latent risk makes watching his 3-yer-olds running more interesting … at least in the eyes of this fan and many people in the media for that matter…
Nelson, on a different tack but probably just as interesting is how many times has Eoin Harty and Mike McCarthy had 2 runners each in Steve Haskin’s Derby Ratings top 20?
I believe is the first time both trainers have such a presence in the rankings..
Harty had Street Cry among the top Derby eligibles back in 2001, Colonel John in 2008, Mr Hot Stuff in 2009 and American Lion in 2010 all making it to the starting gate… so they must have been in the rankings at some point.
McCarthy debuted in the Derby with Endlessly last year… I don’t remember him having even one Derby prospect in the honor roll. Independence Hall was 6th in the first ranking of 2020 the year when Steve transitioned to Secretariat site.
McCarthy had Rombauer in 2021 with Steve making him 6th in the ranking of week 13.
The both are having their best ever Derby trail…!
Thanks Nelson, I thought you may have all of Steve’s Derby Dozen/Ratings stored in the cloud. I remembered Street Cry , Colonel John and American Lion for Harty but had forgotten Endlessly for McCarthy.
Best of luck to them and thanks again, Nelson.
Subject to correction TP has been represented by 65 KD starters the most on any trainer. He has two KD winners whose came as a result of the misfortune of the best entrant in the respective KDs.
Both Super Saver and Always Dreaming finished 8th in the Preakness beaten a combined 25 1/4L. Unfortunate KD losers Lucky and Classic Empire returned in the Preakness to filmish miles ahead of their respective KD victors, whilst finishing 1st and 2nd. Neither Super Saver nor Always Dreaming won another race.
Given TP’s abysmal KD record. It boggles the mind that he has ardent fans prepared to invest time in tracking his KD prospects. Each new year and each new crop haven’t changed the results.
When a trainer’s record reflects who he is, it should be acknowledged. No amount of SPIN can change what has been written into history.
Agree 100% CP: I have saved a bunch of money over the years by ignoring TP horses in my futures bets. I have been betting futures since the late 1980’s…
UNION RAGS
The subject stallion won its first three starts as a 2YO. His victories included the Saratoga Special (G2) and Champane (G1). He finished ahead away in the BCJ from being Champion 2YO.
As a 3YO he won the FOY and finished 3rd in the FL Derby. That was good enough for him to emerge as the 2nd choice in the wagering for 2012 KD. He finished 7th by 7 1/2lL. He skipped the Preakness and won the Belmont and retirement.
Winners of only the Belmont leg of the TC are rarely seen as sires of KD winner. The last Belmont only winner to sire a KD winer was Birdstone 2009. A long and extensive search is required to identify his predecessor. Empire Maker was close with Pioneerof The Nile and Bodemeister.
The Deby Ranking Week 2 has a progeny a KD winner (Authentic) and a Preakness winner (Curlin) Progenies of Belmont only winners in KD list is a rarity.
Union Rags bred 164 mares in 2021 that yielded 119 live foals. One of those foals in Very Bold an entrant in the Sam Davis. He is out of a Candy Ride mare. Union Rags hasn’t been great sire as denoted by his $10,00 fee. Candy Ride hasn’t been an influential broodmare sire.
In Mathematics when two negative numbers are multiplied the result is a positive. Can an underperforming sire and a mare from an underperforming broodmare sire combine for a KD winner? Who is California Chrome?
Very Bold ran a sneakily good 3rd in the Pasco contested over a distance way too short for his skills set. He wants Pasco but over 8F and longer. i am of the opinion this colt could surprise. Both his sire and dam sire epitomized excellence on the track. Both in combination should be able to produce a Sam Davis winner of runner-up
Sire of my favorite Thoroughbred the 8yo Express Train….
I’m a fan as well.
RE: Oaklawn Park, Saturday, Feb. 8th, $110K maiden race for 3yr. olds, at 6 furlongs (R8).
Iron Dome, by Into Mischief, out of Speightful Affair, by Speightstown is set to debut in referenced race, for Steve Asmussen. His son, Eric Asmussen, recent Eclipse winner of the top apprentice jockey for 2024, will be in the irons.
Iron Dome is listed at 10-1 on the morning line, but I doubt he’ll be at those double-digit odds at post time.
The success of numerous Into Mischief colts on this year’s Derby trail has been nothing short of amazing. It’s probably too late for Iron Dome to have any impact of the Derby trail, but first things first.
BTW, keep an on the 8th race, at GP on Saturday Feb. 8th. It’s a $94K maiden race for 3 yr. olds set for 6 furlongs. Several well-bred colts, such as Harbe, Crudo, Summer Vibes and X Y Prime are set to debut. Based on the success of Macleans Music producing first out winners, I’ll go with Harbe as the likely winner.
Safe trips to all.
Bill,
You deserve immense credit for highlighting each new Into Mischief prospects. The stallion seems to have sired a phenomenal 2022 crop. But even with their talent and popularity I am prepared to oppose them.
Dawn At Normandy is the entrant that has captured my attention. His sire Omaha Beach is no Into Mischief in the breeding shed but he exhibited far more talent as a racer than the 5 times leading sire. My expectation for Omaha Beach is High.
The dam of Dawn At Normandy finished 2nd in the Fairground Oaks and 3rd in the Kentucky Oaks. She is by Giant’s Causeway and out of Seattle Slew mare. The colt’s pedigree suggest 6F might be too short for him to be seen at his best. This is assuming he has graded stake’s ability.
I am prepared to roll the dice an assume he is as classy as his pedigree. Consequently, his class will allow him to win over a less-than-ideal distance.
Many in the field are debutants so it’s really a guessing game based on trainers, works and pedigree.
I wish you the best of luck with your selection. But I also hopeful that my guess will deliver a ROI.
Betsy, I contacted my friend who lives about 2.5 hours from York and another friend here in United States who travels frequently to England to watch the races.
The weather in England can be warm or chilly at that time of the year. It is very much like the weather in both southwest Virginia and Kentucky. York is north of London and the weather does trend to be cooler.
Musts include waterproof shoes, umbrella, rain coat or waterproof jacket with a hood. When I used to trail ride in Virginia I used to wear rain ponchos rather than rain coats. You can also buy a good rain poncho for around twenty dollars or disposable rain ponchos that very inexpensive and are usually durable enough for several days.
Dressing in layers is preferable. Undershirts, fleece lined vests and lightweight jacket and a hat snd scarf of some sort and lightweight, waterproof gloves. On really chilly days wearing panty hose under your slacks will keep your legs warm. That is an old trick I learned years ago when trail riding. It would be chilly in the mornings and by lunchtime it would be warm enough the take the pantyhose off.
Suggest to that you take a light weight throw if it is chilly and you are sitting in the stands.
If you take shorts, only take a couple of pair.
My friend here in the US said York is a fabulous city and the race course is amazing and you will love it. Lots of shops in York in case you forget something.
Some of the stud farms have tours. I will ask about ones that are closeby.
Both said to not overpack.
My friend in England will let me know the weather forecast as the date getsclosely. She has two horses and rides hunt seat.
My daughter loves tea time in England. It is her favorite time (meal) of the day! Have not spoken to her yet.
Hope this is helpful. I am so jealous (LOL). Would love to go to to England, Ireland, Scotland and Wales.
Linda, I’ll get respond about the other stuff I’m a moment – but thank you!!
I’ll actually be in Kent (southern England) in April…Yorkshire in May/June
Does the info still apply for May/June?
I lived on Long Island for most of my life, and April could be very iffy- so I get it.
My rainjacket with fleece is very comfy – and I believe it’s removable, which will be convenient later on
More…
Yes, the weather in April, May and June in England is very much like the weather in Eastern Kentucky and Western Virginia. The weather can be so unpredictable in the Spring months.
We had snow as late as early May in Virginia. Sometimes it would snow up on the Peaks of Otter and we would go sleigh riding.
I personally prefer the ponchos because they are longer than most raincoats.
If you have a Tractor Supply close by you can purchase the cutest weatherproof boots for about 25 dollars. Some styles cover the calf of your legs and others are like paddock boots and come up to the lower calf.
Kent would probably be warmer, but will check with my friend here in the Sates when I ask about the stud farms.
I am so excited for you!
Thanks!
I can always buy a poncho if I need – I want to be careful of packing too many “just in case” items, lol. Maybe if I can get a fairly light one…
I think there’s one about an hour away.
I want to do a lot more walking than I do here (I’m a lazy bum), so I’m going to start to do research on what kinds of shoes/boots I need. I tend to prefer ankle length, but I might need one pair that’s mid calf
I appreciate it! I DO hope that you’ll get to travel to the UK one day!
Kent is typically warmer than York. My friend has been to Kent in the Spring.
No stud farms close to York.
I think that in England and Ireland the horses are vanned to the racetracks for racing meets just like in Australia. Davids of course knows more about that than I do.
I follow several racing stables or yards as they are called in England on Facebook, one being Philip Kirby Racing.
Very few if any Thoroughbreds are housed at the race tracks.
Betsy, Lynda, there is famous Garrowby Stud in Yorkshire where you can actually stay there or set up camp if you are willing. Ha ha They have a website.
The famous Shirley Heights was bred there.
David, that’s so cool!
I’ll have to check that out!
Thank you Davids.
Lynda, I figured – that’s why I’m going there first
I’ll probably wear shirt sleeves most of the time, and layer them with a sweatshirt/sweater/light jacket as I can’t stand being warm (and so I generally dislike long sleeved shirts)
I’ve read about rain pants – those would go over shorts/pants? Or you wear them on their own?
Near the end of my stay, I’m taking a week to go to Paris. Before I decided to then spend a couple of days in Bayeux (to explore town, do a day tour of D-Day beaches), I was going to go to Chantilly – where they have an amazing Chateau. The famous racetrack is on the grounds, and I was going to visit…
As it stands, I can still visit Longchamp, I believe -I need to double check that
Thanks!
Betsy, I find rain pants to be very uncomfortable, especially if it is winter and ice water rain.
During those conditions I like to wear fkece lined sweats, sometimes two pairs depending on how cold it is.
They might work for you however on your trip.
Thanks, Lynda!
I’ll do some research – worst comes to worst, and it’s especially rainy, I can always hit them there …0
PS, you are most welcome!
Lynda,
Thanks again!
I wanted to add – when I went to Scotland in June, it was often in the 60’s, lol …but of bourse that’s North, so naturally cooler.
I think dressing in layers is almost always a good thing – although I do love cooler, almost autumn-like weather, lol
I don’t wear pantyhose, but leggings would work just as well…
I think 2-3 pairs of shorts will be enough as I can wash as needed
Waterproof shoes are a must – walking shoes for sure.
I’ll bring an umbrella – I may just buy scarf and gloves to save room…
Sheesh, the trip is really fast approaching – I’d better start thinking about a packing list, soon, lol
I’m not actually staying in York city, but I plan on taking a few day trips because it sounds amazing!!!!
Ooh, a tour of a stud would be awesome!
Thank you sooo much!!!
Betsy, check out Garrowby Estate they probably have tours and are in Yorkshire.
The morning line odds have been posted for the Sam F. Davis Stakes, and to my surprise, Owen Almighty is listed as the favorite at 2-1, instead of Poster, listed at 4-1.
In the Pasco Stakes, Owen Almighty hit the wire first, but after a steward’s inquiry, he was placed 5th for forcing Rookie Card’s jockey to take up sharply. Irad Ortiz Jr. (Owen Almighty’s rider) has the reputation of an “aggressive rider” which was on full display in the Pasco. Hopefully, Irad will learn from that disqualification, and use his exceptional riding skills to guide Owen Almighty to victory in the Sam F. Davis Stakes.
After seeing the morning line odds, I’ll key Owen Almighty on top, with Treaty of Rome, John Hancock, Poster and Naughty Rascal underneath, in the 2nd, 3rd and 4th slots in a $2.00 superfecta p/w wager.
That is: 6/ 2,3,7,8/ 2,3,7,8/2,3,7,8.
Safe trips to all.
Hi Bill,
Owen Almighty made his debut over 5 1/2F
Poster made his debut over 8F albeit on turf
Owen Almighty will be stepping up in distance off the last out 7F start to 8 1/2F.
Poster will be cutting back to 8 1/2F from 9F
Why are you of the opinion that Owen Almighty is a better entrant than Poster?
Counter Point (AKA Coldfacts)
Probably for the same reason the oddsmaker made Owen Almighty the morning line favorite. He checks a lot of boxes, and I just have a “gut feeling” about his colt moving forward.
For what it’s worth, I found OA’s Pasco visually impressive. He seems to have a lot of upside and natural speed. Poster owes me nothing. I did well on his Remsen win, but I’m not convinced he has a high cieling.
A May 20th foal’s ceiling is nowhere in sight. When a late May foal wins its first 3 starts as a 2YO over distances of 8F, 8F & 9F. That’s not an ordinary May foal colt.
The 2009 Champion 2YO Lookin at Lucky is a May 27 Foal. He made 6 starts as a 2YO with the first three being over 6F, 61/2F & 7F.
Rarely does one see a 2YO in the USA whose first 3 starts are over 8F and 9F. Champion 3YO Sierra Leone’s first 2 starts as a 2YO were over 8f &9F. He was classified as a router very early and there was no point directing him to sprint races.
Poster was labeled a router from day one. He should improve significantly his 2nd start on dirt with the benefit of two additional months of physical development.
He must be considered the entrant to beat.
Noted!
Poster’s highest Equibase figure surpasses the highest assigned to Owen Almighty. He was only the favorite once in his 3 starts.
Counter Point (AKA Coldfacts)
Owen Almighty received an Equibase Speed figure of 95, in the Pasco. Poster received a 97, in the Remsen. A 2-point difference in Equibase Speed figures, is not a lot to hang your hat on, IMO.
Anyway, good luck with Poster. I remain convinced that Owen Almighty is the horse to beat in the Sam F. Davis Stakes.
Poster and Rodrigeuz have the same foaling date o 05/20/2020.
I am of the opinion Poster deserved be to a ranked at #7 if Captain Cook was assigned the ranking.
The Munnings colt’s Remsen was more than it appeared if some pertinent facts are reviewed.
(a) Entered the Remsen off the AW surface on which he trains and turf on which he raced
(b) raced in last compared to his forwardly placed position in turf wins.
(c) Was unperturbed by the kick back that both he and his rider were covered with in the winner’s enclosure.
(d) Third different venue for his dirt and Stakes debut
(e) No recorded work at the tack
(f) Recoded a winning time that was .07 slower than the one recorded by Sierra Leone and Dornoch in the 2023 renewal of the Remsen.
(g) The youngest entrant in the field by some margin.
This colt won an 8F AOC at Keeneland in his 2nd start on turf win. His final furlong of 11.72 was the fastest of the 8. This sparked 21 points jump over his assigned Equibase figure from his debut of 73 to 94.
He improved significantly in his 2nd turf start. There is no reason he will not improve significantly in his 2nd start on dirt. It will be 2 months between starts and an equivalent period of additional development. He recorded a bullet work over the TB surface which was not the case ahead of the Remsen.
A performance that will influence a significant upgrade in his ranking is expected. But it will be a 4th different venue for his 4th start. An additional challenge for this late foal.
For Poster’s and Rodriquez’s sake, I hope they were not born in 2020. Otherwise, they will not be eligible for the TC races.
TO ERR IS HUMAN TO FORGIVE IS DEVINE
Obviously, the year that should have been cited is 2022. But many thanks for point out the error.
Betsy I posted a reply to your questions about your upcoming trip to England.
Steve, thank you for Week 2!
Way too early for me to have a list and at the moment Burnham Square and Coal Battle are my list.
I am always partial to the underdogs as you probably know about me now after all these years.
Hope everyone is having a great week. Beautiful Spring like weather this week which I am enjoying immensely.
HOLY BULL STAKES
Burnham Square who won 2025 renewal of the above stakes as a last out MSW winner, entered the Derby Rankings at #8. He is considered a legitimate KD contender. How does his profile match up to KD history.
In the last 35 years two winners of the Holy Bull went on to win the KD. They were Go For Gin and Barbaro. It should have been 3 but Tiz the Law fell victim to one of BB’s unlikely KD winners.
Between 1990 and 2024 there were 4 winner of the HB that were last out MSW winners. They were Greatest Honor, Harvey Wallbanger, Dialed In and Saratoga Sinner.
None of the 4 went on to win the KD. In fact, only Dialed In contested the KD and was surprisingly the beaten post time favorite.
How does Burnham Square compare to Dialed In?
Dialed in won on debut and his HB win was recorded in his 2nd start. He was assigned an Equibase figure of 98.
The top 2 finishers behind Dialed In included a two times listed stakes winner and a graded stakes winner.
Burnam Square broke his maiden in his 3rd start, won the HB in his 4th and was assigned an Equibase figure of 95
The top 2 finishers behind Burnham Square were likewise last out MSW winners. The 2025 renewal could be considered a NW2.
NB: The last 11 renewal of the Holy Bull was won by a different trainer. Tiz the Law recorded the best KD finish since Barbaro. Tiz the Law won the G1 Champagne ahead of his HB victory and was assigned an Equibase figure of 118.
Given the above. Should Burnham Square be considered a legitimate KD contender?
Counter Point I consider Burnham Square to be a legitimate contender for the Derby for a number of reasons.
For those who follow the NFL and would like to see the Melbourne Spring Racing Carnival – September to November – from 2026 and for the next 10 years some of the NFL regular season matches are going to be played at the Melbourne Cricket Ground (MCG).
No matches have been scheduled as yet but the Los Angeles Rams are the designated team to play.
By the way, the MCG capacity is 100,000 and they will fill it. Melbourne people are sports crazy.
Ideal venue as Australians paly a similar game. But it is more appropriately named Rugby.
No, no, Australian Rules is the most important football code followed by Rugby League, then Soccer and Rugby Union.
Rugby League and Rugby Union are somewhat similar to American Football to a degree.
Has the thorough graph. Number come out for the Bulls win?
3
Steve,
Thanks for the latest update here of your Derby 20. I was hoping for a change at the top especially at # 1 but I accept your top 3 based on your assessment. Glad to see the big jumps for Burnham Square and Captain Cook (both well deserved) but would have flipped flopped them but again it’s your ranking. We know were East Avenue and Journalism are pointed but do you know were Mott is pointing Sovereignty?
Liked that you did not hold Rodriguez’s race against him. It actually was a good learning lesson for him.
Anxious to see this weeks Sam F Davis from Tampa Bay. See if Poster continues his winning ways. Don’t know much about his competition. Maybe there is a jewel in the rough.
Have a good week Steve and everyone else also.
Your post was directed to Steve, but I hope no offense will be taken regarding a question.
Which on the KD Trail you anticipated would have been assigned the #1 ranking in week 2?
Citizen Bull
Thanks.
I am of the opinion East Avenue deserves a chance to justify his BCJ post time favoritism.
In the BCJ East Avenue was the first choice in the betting ($1.70). CB was the choice 6th choice ($15.90). The gap in the starting prices indicates the public assesses EA to a superior colt to CB.
There is a prevailing trend regarding KD winners. If it assumed that this trend is likely to extend to the 2025 KD. Several on the KD Trail that are well fancied trail can be safely eliminated from the top spot.
Seven of the last 10 KD winners were sired by a starter in the Kentucky Derby. See below –
2024 – Mystik Dan – Goldencents – 17th in KD
2023 – Mage – Good Magic – 2nd KD
2022 – Rich Strike – Keen Ice – 7th KD
2019 – Country House – Lookin at Lucky – 6th in KD
2018 – Justify – Scatt Daddy – 18th in KD
2017 – Always Dreaming – Bodemeister – 2nd in KD
2015 – American Pharaoh – Pioneerof The Nile – 2nd KD
NB: 17 of the last 50 KD winners were sired by a starter in the KD
Deby Rankings Week #2 has the following prospect that were sired by a starter in the KD –
East Avenue – Medaglia D’Oro -4th KD
Journalism – Curlin 3rd in KD
Captain Cook – Practical Joke – 5th in KD
Keep It Esay- Hard Spun – 2nd in KD
Bullard – Gun Runner -3rd in KD
Rodriguez – Authentic – 1st KD
Built – Hard Spun – 2nd KD
If you assume the trend will continue. The remaining 13 in the list of 20 can be safely eliminated from the top spot.
CP, it’s a different year and a different set of likely starters. Affirmative! But there are several very talented likely starers in the 7 above that could keep the trend going.
A KD winner with a live prospect is a rarity. Can Rodriguez break the 28 years drought in progress, relating to a KD winner siring a KD winner?
Can East Avenue become the 3rd off the board finisher in the BCJ to return and win the KD?
Just checked futures odds and only notable movement is with Speed King: was 50-1, now 33-1, same as Bullard…
Just for fun, I checked to see how many Baffert horses are on 102 horse futures list, and the number is 10! Numbers 1,2,6,7,9,11,13(3),14, maybe just a reflection of how many horses he has on Derby trail. My top futures horses are not trained by Baffert, except for Rodriguez, who I think might turn out to be his best Derby contender…
Sam F. Davis Stakes, Saturday Feb. 8th, at Tampa Bay Downs.
1) Camp Hale
2)Treaty of Rome
3) John Hancock
4) Dr. Ruben
5) Gateskeeper
6) Owen Almighty
7) Poster
8) Naughty Rascal
9) Smoken Boy
10) Very Bold
The morning line has yet to be posted.
Are you a very bold poster?
Poster appears to be the one to beat, but I’ll go with Owen Almighty for the win, with Irad Ortiz Jr. up. Naughty Rascal has shown good speed over the Tampa Bay track and could steal it. Cox brought in Flavien Prat to ride John Hancock who was very impressive breaking his maiden at first asking.
I’ll probably box John Hancock, Owen Almighty, Poster and Naughty Rascal in a $2.00 superfecta wager.
Just a minor correction…
#4 is Dr Rubin M
SOUPER TIMES –
Debut -GP-8F (Turf) 1st by 1/2L in 1:34.98 (Equibase – 92)
AOC – GP; 8F (Dirt) 2nd by 6 1/2L 1:36.34 (Equibase – 73)
RIVER THAMES
Debut – GP; 6F (Dirt) 1st by 4 3/4L in 1:10.27 (Equibase 105)
AOC – GP; 8F (Dirt) 6 1/2L in 1:36.34 (Equibase 84)
I expected a better performance from Souper Times. He breezed 5F in 58.71 on dirt ahead of his AOC. No genuine turf works that fast on dirt. His defeat by 61/2L suggest he didn’t run back to his work.
His extrapolated final time in the AOC would be about 1:37+. He was therefore 3 seconds slower on dirt albeit in a 1Turn mile.
Should the connections of this colt persist with him on dirt? I contend another try on dirt over a longer distance would be appropriate. His turf win over 8F was a 2turn race which he got up late to win by 1/2L. A 1Turn mile is like an extended sprint which often doesn’t suite 2Turn routers.
I am of the opinion he will be more formidable opponent for River Thames around 2Turns. I am surprised he wasn’t highlighted. But then only winners are. Are good losing efforts less significant than winning ones?
River Thames was assigned an Equibase 84 or his AOC win over a distance that was 2F longer than his 6F debut for which he was assigned a 105. How can his AOC performance be 21 points lower?
DRF is reporting that M.McCarthy said that Journalism is looking and doing fantastic. He is pointed to the San Felipe on MAR 1. The longer the better for Journalism. I’m glad his speed figures are gradually improving. I’m sure he will be primed for a big effort in the San Felipe. He can save his triple digit Beyer for the KY Derby. No need to pop big figures 3 months out. Peeking the first Saturday in May is the goal. Journalism is my #1 and thrilled to have gotten him at ballooned odds of 52-1 in KDFW2.
Nice colt! However, I have concerns regarding his transition from cruising to top gear. He is always hard ridden to get on term with the leaders.
In the 10F KD, entrants that require to be had ridden early, are unlikely have enough left in the tank for a resolute stretch run.
My observations and assessment might very well be severely flawed, and he could be a monster Curlin colt in the making.
Good points CP, time will tell with Journalism. I like how he was able to stay close to the pace and finish strong once he kicked it into first gear .
Hey Joe P
Please continue to remind us that you have Jounalism, at 52-1, in KDFW2, or we might forget. 🙂
Thanks Joe
Will do Bill!
Great price. Good luck
Thanks Jeff 👍
The same way we treasure the moment when a Hall of Famer pitcher achieve a no-hit,no-run game or we are left in awe of a breathtaking musical, we also cheerish reading the words of a Hall of Fame writer.
This week a token of Steve’s caliber as a writer was the comparison between O’Brien and Baffert methods: “… O’Brien simulates races in his workouts and Baffert simulates workouts in his races”.
Steve is not only a master in gleaning insights to make the horse dwelling in our hearts to run gleefully in the prairie of our imagination to embelish our lives; but he also owns the observational acumen of a brilliant historian.
I never cease to thank Steve for making us smarter…!
PS. Forgive my warmth today… it might have to do with the minus 23 Celcius (-9 Fahrenheit) outside.
RE: Gulfstream Park, $94K maiden, 8th race, (6 furlongs), Saturday, Feb. 8th
A full field of 13 three-year-olds have been entered in referenced race, six are first time starters. After reviewing the pedigrees and workout patterns of those six, I have narrowed my choices down to four colts. Those for colts are Harbe, Crudo, Summer Vibes and X Y Prime. I’ll box those four in a $2.00 superfecta wager.
For the win, I’ll go with Harbe, by Macleans Music, out of an Afleet Alex mare.
Macleans Music has a reputation of producing first out winners, the latest being River Thames. Luiz Saez, recently named “Rider of the Week”, from Jan. 27th thru Feb. 2nd, at GP, will be in the irons.
Afleet Alex is the dam sire of Harbe’s dam, Miss Ann Perry. Afleet Alex, won the Preakness, the Belmont, the Arkansas Derby and was 3rd in the Kentucky Derby.
With respect to Harbe’s tail-female side, there’s Dr. Fager, Nijinsky, Damascus and Northern Dancer.
Bottom line, with speed on top, and class/stamina on the bottom, I like Harbe’s chances of hitting the wire in referenced race.
Safe trips to all.
Edit: those four colts are
Bill
Is there no love for Multiverse?
He was 3rd in the MSW that Tappan Street won on debut. Tappan Street has since finished 2nd in the Holy Bull (G3) against seasoned winners.
Hey Counter Point (AKA Coldfacts)
I don’t consider a gelding, (Multiverse), as a legitimate Kentucky Derby prospect.
He may or may not be a serious contender in the maiden race that I referenced.
I’ll stay with Harbe, Crudo, Summer Vibes and X Y Prime.
Thanks Steve for your work here and respect your Derby Ranking but I’m more inclined to side with the NTRA and they’re ‘Top 3 Year Old Poll’, which, by the way, are two different things and stick with my post from last week with no changes other than Citizen Bull adding to his lead at #1 followed by Barnes at #2. I just can’t get excited by other three year olds that haven’t raced in over three months working out-just yet. I’ll take the actual races (the Lewis, Holy Bull and even the Withers) over the works right now and speaking of Citizen Bull noticed that CB has improved his Beyers from 89 in the American Pharoah to 96 in BC Juvenile to a 98 in the Lewis. That’s impressive.
Other than that-looking forward to this weekend’s preps.
Love reading what you write Steve, thank you for the insight.
I have not posted a KD list as I do not have one on paper. But I do enjoy critiquing the list posted by others
My comments and disagreements are never intended to offend but rather indicate that wouldn’t have ranked certain prospects ahead of others. I am of the opinion that ranking should be assigned after careful analysis of available cold facts.
Captain Cook made his entry into the rankings at #7. That is 7 spots above Poster who likewise won a 9F stakes at Aqueduct.
Fractions – Withers – 24.49; 49.13; 1:13.64; 1:39.22; 1:51.83
Fractions – Rensen – 23.48; 48.59; 1:13.32; 1:37.77; 1;50.37
Both colts were assigned an Equibase figure of 97
Why was Captain Cook ranked at #7 and Poster at #14
CP its unwise to compare fractions and final time for different days. OK! Let’s assume Captain Cook contested the Withers on a slower surface that led to his final time being 1+ seconds slower. Well, let’s use another measure.
Who was the runner up in the Withers? Surfside Moon finished 2nd by 2 1/4L. He entered the Wither off 6th & 5t place finished in his last two starts defeated by a combined 10 1/4l. He wasn’t ranked in the initial Derby Rankings.
Who was the runner up in the Remsen? Aviator Gui entered the Remsen off 4th & 1st place finished in his last two starts. He was 4th last out in the Awad Stakes (listed)
Aviator Gui was ranked higher than his victor Poset in the initial Raking’s.
The runner to Poster was ranked #9 ahead of Poster. The runner up to Captain Cook wasn’t included in the initial rankings.
Captain Cook is 80 days older than Poster. His Wither win was his 2ndat Aqueducts. Post made his dirt debut in the Remsen and fit first start at the Big A. He ran faster and defeated a better field.
How can Captain Cook be ranked 7 levels above Poster when Aviator Gui who was also assigned an Equibase figure of 97, is now ranked at 16?
The Rankings here are based on what Steve considers to be the Potential of each horse as to winning the KY Derby. Not so much as what they have accomplished up to now. SMH.
Glenn, never would I tell Picasso how to paint.
He actually had been moved to no. 12 assuming he will be entered in the Sam F. Davis Saturday. Just a suggestion for you. Comparing fractions and times of races run a .month apart , and basically comparing times at all that aren’t on the same day is a total waste of time. It means absolutely nothing. But if you enjoy it keep doing it, as long as you know it has no bearing on anything.
‘Not post cause you don’t have a list on paper’… people don’t USE paper ANYMORE! Enjoy critiquing others of their list? Who are you to judge? Man up! and don’t be afraid to show your vulnerability. Nobody’s gonna nail you to the cross.
Show us?! but more importantly show yourself HOW you would rank these ponies CP?
He says he “enjoys critiquing ” He’s been doing it for about 15 years under several names. If that’s what gives him joy just let him have his fun. Hes harmless.
Steve, one of the things I have always enjoyed about your columns is that that you are so gracious in allowing us to express our opinions as long as we do not make it “personal”.
Exactly Lynda. The key word is personal
I agree with Counter Point that it makes no sense to rank a horse who came in second, higher than the horse who won, the same race. I don’t agree with that kind of handicapping. The ability to win races is a valid handicapping angle for the Kentucky Derby. Making too many excuses for horses that lose doesn’t help, there are too many good horses to do that.
Some are inclined the ridicule others that take a non-convectional approach to eliminating certain KD prospect from the top spot. But let me hasten to remind that one man’s trash is another man’s treasure.
(a) Multimillion dollar yearlings and multimillion 2YOs in training purchases do not possess a particularly appealing record in the KD. Is this sufficient enough a reason to eliminate Barnes from the top spot in the KD? Yes! Further, the colt’s dam sire is a TC winner. How many of the last 3 TC winners (Seattle Slew/Secretariat/Affirmed) that preceded American Pharaoh emerge as the dam sire of a KD winner? None!
Individuals that take the above approach to eliminate certain horses from the top spot are by no means engaging in naivety. They are aware that all KD Prospects are different, and exceptions are likely.
Given the less than stellar history of KD starters with a particular price and pedigree profile. Their elimination from the top spot isn’t without merit. The dismissal of this approach on the basis that all horses are different doesn’t negate the fact that history has neither been made nor repeated by KD starter with this profile.
(b) Gedling do not possess a stellar record in the KD. This could be due to the relatively small number of geldings that contest the great race each year. Should there be reservations regarding gelding for the top KD slot?
The last two gelding to win the KD were Funny Cide and Mine That Bird. one was the 7th choice in the wearing and the other the 16th. Neither gelding won a KD prep.
Burnham Square the impressive winner of the Holy Bull is gelding. He has already superseded Funny Cide and MTB as neither won a KD Prep. If entered in the FOY he is likely to be one of the top contenders. His profile doesn’t match those of his referenced predecessors and might just be better at this stage of the KD Trail.
I wouldn’t eliminate him from the top spot because he is gelding but because of a prevailing trend which many in this frum have missed.
(c) January foals rarely emerge as winners of the KD. They are an automatic toss for me. Yes! I am aware that horses are different and what has not occurred in ages can occur in any given year. The most celebrated January foal to enter the KD since Grindstone win in 1996 was undefeated Verrazano. he meredthe3rd choice in the wagering and finished 17th. Gemologist another celebrated January foal entered the KD undefeated in 5 starts. He emerged the 3rd choice in the wearing and finished 16th.
The last January foal to win the KD was Grindstone 1996 Interestingly he was one of 3 starters that didn’t contest the race on Lasix.
The people that use history as a guide also incorporate other guides. But often history is so glaring, it’s very hard to ignore
Why should you like Burnham Square? The 2 Geldings to Win KY Derby Did Not Win a Derby Prep. Why mention January Foals? So few Colts are Fialed that early. As far a Price Tags, once again. 75 Percent of all Derby Starters less than 650K. So of course very few over 1 MIL even run in the race.
Burnham Square has a shot. Impressive win.
Since 1908 over 115 Geldings have run in KY Derby. 6 have won but 4 of them were before 1930. So let’s say 2 Winners of last 80 to run. That is worse than your Jan Foal Argument.
Do mares in countries that experience severe winters, foal in January? Once the days start shortens in Fall, mares in their natural habitat are not receptive to stallion as their gestation period will lead to them foaling in harsh winter months and conditions that can compromise the survival their foals.
Many mares are placed under light when the day shorten to make them receptive to stallions. A January foal is the products of this practice. They often have no major advantage of younger opponents.
Man’s intervention into what Mother Nature has in place must have some negatives.
David, there are forecasts for 2 months out?
Snow in Kent? Interesting, lol
Betsy, that’s the trouble with climate change you get more and unpredictable extreme weather patterns than before.
I went through April, 2024’s weather, the maximum temperature was 16 on a couple of days but most of the time the maximum was around 12 going down to 7 on a few days. They warn you to wear warm clothing. It rained on 20 of the 30 days.
That’s true!
I need to Google those temps as we use Fahrenheit, lol
Well I can’t afford to pack for cold weather – I’m going to have to stuff 3 months of clothes in one suitcase, lol. Of course I’ll take a sweater or two and a cardigan, but if it’s really cold, I’ll just buy gloves or a scarf. I’m certainly going to bring a rain jacket and umbrella.
I was told that April can be chilly still in Yorkshire, but I won’t be there until May/June…
When I lived in NY (Long Island), April was often not very nice – rainy, cold…and occasionally snow
By the way, I’m going to go to York Racetrack! They’re running while I’ll be there …any tips?
Thanks!
Haha I’m so used to converting now. Max high 50s, min mid 40s. Just buy a Tweed coat as a present and memory when you’re there, saves packing.
There’s a couple of Group 3s around that time but you’ll be able to watch the Grade 1s -Epsom and Royal Ascot on TV.
Look up York Racecourse for the actual dates for May/June.
LOL David – I actually like cool weather…but daytime temps possibly in the 40’s? I was not counting on that, lol
What a good excuse to buy a Tweed coat!
I did awhile ago -looks like either May 31 or June 13/14, when I’m in Knaresborough, which is a shortish train ride to York city
Yes Betsy, I like cool weather as well. Much easier warming yourself up than suffering from overheating. It’s been miserable stuck inside here over the past 5 days and watering for hours every day. First cool day today. Yay!!
That’s right there should be some nice prices on stylish Tweed coats as it’s Spring then. Win/win.
Betsy, I have a dear friend who lives in England and my daughter and her family are planning a trip to Europe which includes England about the same time you are going. The family trip will be a celebration of my Grandaughter’s graduation from the University of Florida.
I will be more than happy to ask both my friend about the weather and my Daughter about what she packs if you like. She is a world traveler and has visited England many times. My friend is from England and lived in the US for many years before returning to England.
Betsy, also have a FB friend who makes multiple trips to Engkand every year.
I will gladly ask her as well if you want.
Lynda, congrats on your granddaughter’s graduation!
That would be great – thank you!
I’ve been to England before, but not for nearly as long as I’m going now. I really need to be careful of what I’m taking as it’s one suitcase essentially.
It looks like April in Kent, as in many areas, can be hit or miss. I have a rain coat with fleece inside, so that should help.
May and June should be warmer…that’s why I don’t want to overpack heavy stuff
Thanks again!
Thank you. She has two majors, Psychology and Dance.
She has been dancing since she was 3 years old.
Not sure of her plans after graduation.
My daughter knows my good friend in England and plans to visit her when they travel to England.
My daughter and her husband and my youngest Grandaughter plan to spend time in Scotland and possibly Wales this time and Denmark.
Think they will be gone for 3 weeks.
My oldest Granddaughter works for a veterinarian and volunteers in a rescue. She is attending Vet School at UFLA. She will not be making this trip.
PS, my English friend lives about 2.5 hours from the York Race track.
Oh wow -does she live in Yorkshire? If so, I’ll bet she lives near where I’ll be for the first part of my Yorkshire stay ..
And that’s a great idea to check for a dress code!
Thanks!
Betsey she lives in Warrington.
Has a lovely little farm. She gardens, has chickens, raises Brittany Spaniel dogs and both of her horses are Cobbs.
She has a daughter who is a couple of years older than my youngest Grandaughter.
Her husband is in a similar profession as USDA inspectors in America.
Betsy, one more suggestion is to check for a dress code for the races at York.
Citizen Bull and Barnes are now co-favorites at 10-1
Davids, the Aga Kahn has passed away at age 88.
8 know how much you appreciated his contributions to sport of horse racing.
Yes Lynda, I just heard the news. One of the truly influential people in European racing. As a young child I was told the Aga Kahn has the best bloodstock in Europe. Even today those discarded from his herd are eagerly fought over at the sales.
A mighty figure in the European thoroughbred industry. Extremely sad news, today.
88 is long at bat. A strike out should bring sadness.
I just watched Shergar’s Epsom Derby win on Twitter …chills
Yes, Betsy, outstanding!!
Davids , the tributes to the Aga Kahn have been flooding X. He was deeply and widely respected.
Certainly left some very large shoes to fill.
He was a close personal friend to King Charles and the late Queen El8zabeth.
Yes, Lynda, widely respected, highly intelligent, and extremely amusing at times. His aptitude in selecting the right mare to the right sire was second to none.
Just as a racing fans his unique colors were so distinct that you always knew were his runners were in a race. Your world shrinks when those you have known all your life departs the stage.
‘Silks’ – emerald green and red epaulettes.
Hey Steve — I read your column late last night but haven’t had a chance to respond until now. I must congratulate you on including every last possible house that’s due for consideration at this early point. The Derby picture isn’t likely to be clear for another few weeks, and THEN it’ll just get more confusing the closer to the race we get, if history is any guide. Glad to have your considered wisdom to help guide my own Trail.
Horse, not house. LOL.
It’s only week 2 and there have been a few changes. Looking forward to seeing the top three race in a few weeks.
On a side note….did anyone have a chance to read the article in the LA times about the state of TB racing in California? Definitely an eye opener written by John Cherwa.
Google….. “Inside California horse racing’s complex problems that could hurt the sport nationwide”
Thanks Zannytactics.
Thanks for the heads up, Z. Indeed, the article just reinforces what we’ve all witnessed in the last few years on California racing. The product is dying on the vine and will be plowed under in 5 years or less.
As for the notion that successful circuits such as Kentucky, Arkansas, et al, should pitch in to save California is not viable in my opinion. If the politicians in Sacramento show no interest in helping the industry, then national efforts to lend a helping hand would be going against the wind. Physician heal thyself.
The better horses that race in California were purchased in Kentucky…and remain racing in California, so—when California goes under…Kentucky breeding will take a big hit…the loss will be felt in Horse Racing..
A lot of owners will pull out..
I’m not convinced that the demise of California racing will have a significant impact on horse racing nationwide. If only for the fact that the foal crop has diminished to around 18,000. Trust me, the sales will continue to flourish with many deep pocketed owners ready to step in to fill the void of Cali owners. I’d guess that there’s a segment of Cali owners with a passion for horse racing who would have no problem remaining in the game and racing outside of California. If there’s a loss in this scenario, it would be the breeding sheds of California, not Kentucky.
Count me as one of those who believe that diminished availability results in higher demand for both horsemen and fans.
Matthew, in any event, I suspect that we’ll see the effect that the disappearance of California racing will have on the national scene sooner rather than later. Sigh!
Dewey, I think you are forgetting that around 37,000 employees are connected to California racing with 25,000 directly involved that’s a lot of people out of work with a blink of an eye.
Moreover, the total economic impact of California racing is 2.5 Billion with a direct economic impact of 1.5 Billion. This is not chicken feed and once it’s gone it’s never coming back.
Losing that amount out of the annual entire racing pie would be significant and if Santa Anita goes how soon would Gulfstream close. It would be like dominoes falling.
There were around 2,000 California mares bred in 2024, if they go, there goes the farms as well.
With California racing gone the Triple Crown series would lack quite a lot of luster and would be much easier for the Eastern ‘big wig’ trainers to race their top 3 year colts even more infrequently to get the points needed to run in the Kentucky Derby.
No, I see the possible demise of California racing as having a catastrophic impact on the rest of US racing. Furthermore, frigid, wet tracks in the East for the Breeders’ Cup races will dampen the ardor of racing fans around the world when the sunshine of the Golden State racetracks have been taken away forever.
Ah, Davids, I was hoping you’d comment on my provocative opinion. You make some impressive points with the numbers you use to support the economic impact of the loss of California racing.
To clarify, are these numbers the impact nationwide or for California only?
As for the effect on the Triple Crown, I mentioned that I would expect that a significant number of Cali owners would be willing to move their operations east to continue to experience the enjoyment that horse racing gives them. And I’m sure that Churchill will continue to tweak the qualifying point system.
Now, with the Breeders’ Cup, I, for one, wouldn’t miss it. I’m still disappointed that the Breeders’ Cup has diminished the importance of traditionally big stakes races throughout the year.
Concerning Gulfstream, if that track should close, there’s some talk of resurrecting Hialeah. Don’t know if that’s feasible, but it’s worth considering.
Bottom line: We all recognize the decline of horse racing’s popularity. If we can save the core of horse racing with the stronger circuits, then so be it. Horseplayers will follow and support the action wherever the horses are running. Change is coming for the sport we love.
My apologies to you and Matthew for bluntly blurting out my feelings on this matter. I often speak from the gut without a lot of thought or research into the facts. You both made good points in defense of California racing. Too bad that the politicians in Sacramento don’t appear to see the “big picture”.
In any event, I think that the future of horse racing in the near future would make for a good column/forum that Steve could initiate (after the Triple Crown, of course).. I believe that such a column would produce a lot of feedback.
Good luck to us all.
Hi Dewey, yes all the numbers are for California. You can read the full “Economic Impact of the California Horse Industry” on the website: californiahorsecoalition dot com
There is a specific section on Horse Racing.
Yes, the State of California is a huge economy and the politicians in Sacramento can probably ‘safely’ ignore the plight of horse racing and not be stung at the next election.
Moreover, I get the impression that horse racing is perceived as cruel overall by a majority of the voters in California but I don’t have the numbers on this. Subsequently, If Santa Anita is sold for housing that would be a positive in the politicians eyes.
I have a similar love/hate relationship with the Breeders’ Cup races but it’s a rarity for racing to have the spotlight in the US anytime so racing’s future is somewhat dependent on the Breeders’ Cup races.
I think the ship has sailed in hoping for the resurrection of Hialeah. A decade ago a tech-millionaire wanted to buy it and return it to its former glory but the present owners turned it down. Why?
I used to work within the film industry when the invention of videos first started in the 1980s. Everyone was doom and gloom about the end of film as a major entertainment enterprise but eventually the big players realized it was their own product which was killing them at the box office.
The film industry took control of the video distribution of film and subsequently expanded the market of the product while controlling when and where film could be ‘released’ on video. Win, win.
Racetracks in the US instead of protecting their own little patch should join forces to promote Racing as a healthy, entertainment for everyone.
This is what Australia did, John Messara as Chairman of the Australian Racing Board instigated a modern approach to marketing racing and now Australia is the major hub for racing the world over.
Australia now has more million dollar races, 105, than both the United States, 69, and Europe, 29, combined. Yet in the 1980s Australia was a backwash in racing. Second rate behind the US and Europe.
The future of US horse racing can be saved. United we stand, divided we fall.
Thanks for reference and good read. It wild hit the Kentucky breeding system for sure if Calif racing folded.
Thanks for all the Derby info Steve! Appreciate it! Looking for more down the road!👍🐎
Steve, Thanks for including Tiztastic in your “knocking at the door” listings. It looks like he will run in the Rebel and when he beats Sandman, you can put him on the actual list. He has already earned far more than most on any of the lists.
William, those are fighting words. As long as Sandman and Tiztastic run 1, 2 either toss I’ll be happy.
David, not fighting words at all. Just want him to have him to have his due for running real races with real competition. As you know, the KD is a tough race with lots of competition that is going to take a horse that knows how to make it through the mess. It surely is not a race that is set up with stable mates so that you can look good and learn nothing about how to persevere.
Yes William, I take your meaning. Every year certain horses are overlooked even though they have solid credentials in having a good chance but are overlooked because the racing media can only concentrate on a certain group of horses.
In the Southwest, Tiztastic ran a bang up race but fore whatever reason was ignored. Fingers crossed for both Tiztastic and Sandman in the Rebel Stakes.
Davids, Thanks. If Tiztastic does well this year, it will be interesting to find out who wants a double Tapit at stud. Maybe he would be exactly what the Japanese would want to go with the Sunday Silence mares.
William, it kind of depends on what races Tiztastic wins on where he stands as the Coolmare lads and Winchell are the owners.
Prize Pick, a full brother to Tiztastic, who is a 2 year old this year also could influence where Tiztastic eventually stands. At the Keeneland September sale Prize Pick went for $330,000. Tiztastic went for $335,000
The Japanese horsemen are more serious than ever in trying to win the Kentucky Derby with a record of 69 nominated horses.
I noted that their undefeated 2-year-old champion Croix Du Nord is not nominated. His 3 starts were on turf … there are many Japanese turf runners nominated but the black son of Kitasan Black will attemp instead the Japanese Triple Crown starting with the Satsuki Sho on April 20.
Myriad Love who got 20 qualyfing points is not nominated but National Rise (holding 14 points) is.
Another salient observation is that Nadal is the sire of 8 nominees including two undefeated fillies. His progeny in the list have won a total of 13 races out of 25 starts, with 5 seconds and 2 thirds.
I will be watching closely two sons of Nadal, Melchior and Quantum Wave who finished 1, 2 in the Bluebird Cup (1800 meters on dirt) on January 22.
The Hyacinth on February 16 with 30 points for the winner and the Fukuryu Stakes offering 40 points to the winner on March 22 will be watched by many fans who were captivated by Forever Young last year.
Nelson, too bad that Croix du Nord won’t be contending for the Derby. I know he was being rested for bucked shins (the comment on Pedigree Query was “take care of yourself”) but I’d hope to see him invade and shake things up here.
Indigo wasn’t nominated either but there is always time to remedy that small problem if he’s good enough. Croix du Nord is a turf runner, the Japanese Triple Crown would always have been the major target.
I remember when you brought his winning debut to my attention… I also noted that Testimone was a second faster in the same card … neither are nominated… but there is no lack of eligibles Japanese anyway…
Yes, Nelson, wait and see I guess. There are quite a few with pedigrees that should be perfect on the US dirt tracks. Time is on our side at present.
Love your columns Steve. Always love seeing k forward to what you have to say. I have been following your Derby rankings for many years.
Thank you Suzie.
The upward move of Captain Cook and Burnham Square from the KOTD segment to the top 10 was expected. The winners of the Whiters and the Holy Bull were really impressive specially in the way they dashed through the last furlongs. They were the fastest closers among all the prep winners last Saturday. I look forward to their performances over the New York and Florida routes to the Triple Crown series.
Tappan Street and Rodriguez also deserved upgrades after their valiant efforts against rivals with more credentials and experience.
I also hope to see Poster moving upward in the table of Derby eligibles after the Sam F. Davis this Saturday.
I was quick to dismiss Ferocious but Steve pointing out the Holy Bull as being essentialy a (first) prep for the son of Flatter made me think twice. I am now expecting Ferocious to improve next out … whether or not he is able to boost his speed figures remains to be seen but I also trust the old school ways of Gustavo Delgado.
I have posted before about the accomplishments of Gustavo Delgado in Venezuela and the Caribbean stage; but few people know about him learning a great deal from Lazaro Barrera in 1980 in New York.
Ferocious is the most expensive horse ever trained by the silver-haired trainer and the only one of his barn nominated to the Derby … so, if Ferocious won’t rise to the challenge it would not be due to lack of dedicated talent around him…
Yes Nelson, I’m looking forward of Poster as well and with Ferocious, just wait and see. He did look tremendous in the mounting yard, as did Tux for that matter in another race, but something went awry for both during the races. Better luck next time and move on.
Yes Davids… Every one was in awe of their looks pre race.
It would be great if their trainers offer some update on their condition in the coming days…
That’s right Nelson, I remember Mark Casse trying to encourage other trainers to become more open about the health of their runners but I sense that ship has sailed now.
David, keep an eye on AP Kid -trained by Todd. He was supposed to debut in November, but got sick. He’s now very close to debuting – see his recent work on XBTV; he looks great!
I’m hoping that if Heart does well in Dubai, that he’ll be a late nominee to TC. I’d love to see him in the Belmont
Thanks Betsy, I spotted him in the Triple Crown Nominations there were a few more from Honor A. P. on the list as well. There is a long way until the Belmont Stakes so fingers crossed well here from those in the near future.
I suspected Heart of Honor wouldn’t be on the list. That’s probably a good thing really. There are so many other races.
Rank & one I like, Meritorious – owned by Pin Oak. He was working well on the spring, but gave him time off
Well honestly, I think the Belmont would be perfect for him if he’s good enough. He’s either going to come to the States, Japan or not run if they want to keep him on dirt, lol
First things first, though – and even if he does well in Dubai, no doubt he’ll get significant time off
Betsy, I’d have a stab that if Heart of Honor were to win the UAE Derby the connections would replicate what they have applied this year, next year, with the Dubai World Cup as the major target next year.
I mean, that would be fine….but he’s not run again the rest of the year? I can’t support that
Betsy, how long now until you depart for your trip to the UK? It must be only weeks away now.
April 3!
So yeah, not that long now!
Betsy, I just looked up the forecast for April. Some snow expected with an average of 57 – 43, temperature wise but it doesn’t look like too much rain so you’ll be fine.
HASKIN-ALERT!!!!
Gate to Wire and Vassimo! Pay attention when attention is due.
Love, Mr. K
Surprised #2 is that high. I don’t see it.
Thanks Steve appreciate the detail; you mentioned a couple pedigrees and when in depth about the lineage. What’s your opinion with distorted humor as the dam sire of several horses on your top 20 list? Appreciate ur feedback thanks!
Believe it or not I pay little attention to Distorted Humor because he neither adds anything particular or detracts anything. He can sire sprinters or distance horses.. we all thought the first until funny Cide came along. He himself was a sprinter/miler who could get 1 1/8 miles.
Steve, your analogy between Bob Baffert’s training regimen and Aidan O’Brien’s was perfect. Moreover, when either trainer dominate, numerically, in a race you are never quite sure what you are seeing. Skeptical, indeed!! Perhaps, being more prominent as the sad demise of opposing numbers in California.
I could say more about what you think you are seeing in California racing but it’s just hearsay and all trainers have their various methods of preparing horses for the big dance.
Your pep talk on Ferocious has saved baby Ferocious from the disposal of the bath water. Haha I should know better but Ferocious is a frustrating colt – talent is obvious there. You are so accustomed to the ‘modern’ method of training in the US you are forgetting the past. Thanks for that.
Sandman, Coal Battle, Tiztastic, Ferocious, Poster, I have an emotional attachment to but it’s early and I haven’t decided on my West Coast horses as yet. Of course, if Bill Mott wins I’d be overjoyed anyway.
Speaking of Bill Mott, does anyone know what happened to Tux in race 7 at Gulfstream on Saturday. First time lasix maybe have been the cause or an epiglottic entrapment but I’m just guessing. Thanks
Hi Steve
Thank you for providing an in-depth analysis on your top 20 colts moving forward on the Derby trail. I was delighted to see four Into Mischief colts, ranked in your top eleven.
Hypnus, by Into Mischief, out of an Uncle Mo mare, won at first asking for Ken McPeek, at the Fair Grounds, on Jan. 18th. His final time for the 8.5-furlong distance was not that impressive, (1:46.33) but the way closed from 6th, at the 3/4 pole, to finish 1st, drawing away by 2 1/2 lengths, is what caught my attention.
He breezed 5F, in 1:02.20 this past Saturday, at the Fair Grounds, so it appears he came out of his maiden win in good order. It might be too early to test him for class in a race such as the Risen Star, on Feb. 15th, but who knows, stranger things have happened.
At any rate, please keep an eye on Hypnus moving forward.
Thanks again for all the time and effort you into these weekly rankings. Frankly, I don’t know how you do it in such a masterful way, week after week.
Your efforts are much appreciated.
Thanks Bill. I wrote about Hypnus last week and how impressive he was.
Hi Steve, thanks for the reply.
Please excuse my oversight on you mentioning Hypnus in last week’s KOTD segment. It’s been said that the brain is the first to go.
Nelson Mann and I exchanged a few comments on River Thames, before and after his impressive win, at GP, this past Saturday. I predicted that RT would be placed somewhere in your Week Two Rankings. Obviously, I was wrong in that regard, but I was encouraged by the good things you had to say about him in your Week Two, KOTD segment. I suspect Pletcher will test RT for class in his next start, possibly the FOY, on March 1st, or the Tampa Bay Derby, on March 8th.
I love RT’s impressive pedigree, with speed on top, and a ton of class and stamina on the bottom.
Thanks again, for all you do, week after week.
I had to expand it to 20 just to cover the stakes horses. Nobody is wowing anyone yet and most of the top horses havent run yet, so its all a grab bag. I might consider River Thames more if he had a pedigree I was confident would get 10f.
Thanks for the reply, Steve
Yes I agree, it’s very early on this year’s journey down the Derby trail.
I’m anxiously awaiting the 100 point, 9 furlong races down the road.
Thank you for coming up with pertinent and interesting information re the contenders. I especially like to read about the pedigrees and Thoro-Graph numbers. I think their inclusion in your weekly rankings has added a great deal of useful information re who might be in a position to peak the first Saturday in May…
My top 4 currently are Journalism, Disco Time, Rodriguez and Coal Battle. I have all four at nicely overlaid odds.
Hi Steve – I agree with your assessment of Citizen Bull. His two stablemates in the Robert Lewis let him jog around the track for an easy win without being challenged for the lead. Journalism pressed the pace and stayed close to the pace before kicking clear and win the Los Al Futurity going away with a strong gallop out. I’m glad I bet Journalism at 52-1 in KDFW2 because he has the looks of a serious KY Derby contender. I believe since CB has 60 Derby points, he will train up to the SA Derby . Journalism is training for the San Felipe and should be ready to roll. Hopefully he runs up to expectations in the San Felipe with a likely matchup against either Barnes or CB. My faith and Money will be on Journalism.
Joe:
Good luck to you: We both will be pulling for Journalism, especially at our odds!
Thanks Biggy. Journalism has recovered from his brief illness and should be ready to fire in the San Felipe. The odds which we both got are excellent. Let’s keep Journalism happy and healthy. I like our chances.
I’m not sure if the Bull will train to the SA derby; because bob said he needed more racing to get into shape.
I think bob will run the Bull twice more before the KD.