2025 Kentucky Derby Rankings – Week 3
Two announcements: Due to pending cataract surgeries, beginning next week the Derby Rankings columns will be shorter and Knocking on the Door more condensed than usual. Also, with all the new faces popping up each week and an abundance of Derby hopefuls, with no standouts at present, we are going back to a traditional Derby Dozen format this week to keep it elite. So if your horse isn’t mentioned a particular week, rest assured they haven’t been forgotten. The Rankings could very well go back to 15 or 20 as we get closer to Derby. Thank you for your patience and consideration in the interim. ~ Steve Haskin
Derby Rankings: February 10, 2025 – Week 3
By Steve Haskin
1—East Avenue (Brendon Walsh, Medaglia d‘Oro – Dance Music, by Ghoszapper)
We are finalIy about to find out in Saturday’s Risen Star Stakes if he is a worthy No. 1, especially considering he has to be the least experienced and least accomplished horse ever to be ranked No. 1 as late as mid-February. It will be three and a half months since he had a legitimate race, so as it is with other top 2-year-olds such as Journalism, Sovereignty, First Resort and Chancer McPatrick, who are also awaiting their 3-year-old debut, there is nothing else to do but rely mainly on speculation. As I have stated before, East Avenue’s lofty ranking is based, not only on his two brilliant victories, but the visual impact he has made before, during, and after his races, mainly his classy demeanor and the ease with which he has dominated his opponents. Now we just have to confirm that he has made the kind of transition from 2 to 3 you want to see. He’ll be facing a large field and drew well, so if he runs back to his exceptional works we should see the real East Avenue.
2—Sovereignty (Bill Mott, Into Mischief – Crowned, by Bernardini)
Despite his sporadic work pattern, with 22-day and 16-day gaps between works, it looked as if he was finally back on track until he had still failed to show up on the work tab nine days after his last work. Still, the word from the Godolphin camp was that he definitely is still on the Derby trail. As it turned out, according to Mott he breezed a half-mile on February 7, and went well in :49 3/5, out 1:02 4/5 and was back on the track Sunday. So obviously that work was missed, and it is important he continues to work steadily up to his return in the Fountain of Youth. So all is good on the Sovereignty front. I still believe he could be special, with his pedigree and explosive closing punch, and I was extremely impressed with all three of his races last year, especially crushing his field in the Street Sense Stakes as a maiden. Remember, he and East Avenue were the two top-rated Godolphin colts in their early training.
3—Journalism (Mike McCarthy, Curlin – Mopotism, by Uncle Mo)
He’s getting sharp right now as evidenced by his :59 4/5 work on Sunday. You never know how things are going to pan out in a 3-year-old’s schedule, but it is possible we could have a Derby favorite emerge from the March 1 San Felipe Stakes if Journalism and Barnes both show up, as well as the ever-improving Rodriguez. You knew this colt could be a major force on the Derby trail when more people were talking about his impressive allowance victory the same day his stablemate Bullard dominated his field in the Bob Hope. He came back and used the long Los Alamitos stretch to his advantage by putting away two top-class Baffert stakes horses, Gaming and Getaway Car, and drawing off to a 3 ½-length victory, getting stronger the farther he went. He is more of a power driver than a quick-footed agile horse, so it took a while to build up top speed in a five-horse field with a game Getaway Car loose on the lead turning for home. But I loved the tactical speed he showed, his smooth lead change, and the long sustained run he put in. With a “5 ½” Thoro-Graph number he is going to have to improve off that against two fast, top-tier Baffert colts in what promises to be another short field.
4—Citizen Bull (Bob Baffert, Into Mischief – No Joke, by Distorted Humor)
For a champion, there are so many questions surrounding this horse and none of them have anything to do with him or who he is. He just goes out there and wins decisively every race beating whoever shows up, whether it’s his own stablemates or a deep, talented Breeders’ Cup field. The questions are created by us. Despite him boasting excellent speed figures and winning all his races by open lengths, we still want him to show us more. Perhaps we’re tired of seeing Baffert horses having uncontested leads in moderate fractions and wiring the field or beating up on other Baffert horses. But we could all be overlooking one thing – he may simply be a gifted horse who is faster, stronger, and classier than anyone else. It is ironic that we want him to show us more when he is the one who was raised on his breeder’s farm in Missouri, which if you weren’t aware is known as the “Show Me State.” It was here at Robert and Lowana Low’s Primatara Farm outside Springfield, Missouri that a young Citizen Bull was indeed the bull, who was, “the leader of the paddock; a big strong, classy colt with a powerful shoulder and neck and just a fun horse to prep and be around,” according to farm manager Denny Wilson. His groom, Karri Elia, said he “took a lot of attention and was all man.” Well he is still all man and THE man until someone faster, stronger, and classier comes along.
5—Barnes (Bob Baffert, Into Mischief – All American Dream, by American Pharoah)
With only two career sprints, there is little to analyze or report other than the San Felipe or Rebel will be his next start, but Baffert said he is reluctant to ship him twice. I can’t see him making the Derby the fourth cross-county trip of is brief career. So let’s change course this week and talk about the colt’s namesake just to add a little human interest to his story. Baffert and Jimmy Barnes’ relationship is so much more than a trainer and his assistant. Baffert had just burst on the national scene when he hired Jimmy in 1998. After working for Charlie Whittingham and Jerry Hollendorfer, Jimmy grabbed hold of the Baffert comet, in good part because his wife Dana was Baffert’s top exercise rider. Their working relationship and friendship has been based on trust and grew to the point that when Baffert suffered a heart attack in Dubai in 2012 and didn’t know of he was going to make it he told his wife Jill if anything happened to him to turn all the tack and equipment over to Jimmy. Since then, Baffert’s stress level has been minimal due to Jimmy traveling all over the country and the world overseeing the daily training, and saddling the horses. In the paddock before the 2020 Derby, Baffert’s entrant Thousand Words reared on the walking ring and flipped over backwards, sending Jimmy tumbling to the ground. Fortunately, the horse was unhurt, but Jimmy had to be taken to the hospital with a broken wrist, and on the advice of the veterinarian, Thousand Words was scratched. When Jill asked Jimmy if he wanted her to go with him he said, “Of course not, stay and go win the race.” And that they did with their other horse Authentic. So if Barnes should win the Derby expect a flood of emotions from the entire Baffert family.
6—First Resort (Eoin Harty, Uncle Mo – Fair Maiden, by Street Boss)
He’s up to six furlongs in his works, with a solid 1:14 drill at Turfway Park for his 3-year-old debut in the Battaglia on February 22. Did a Derby horse actually work six furlongs? That’s always refreshing to hear instead of the more common galloped out six furlongs. He then shortened up and worked a sharp five furlongs in a bullet :59 2/5. Of course we don’t know how he will handle the synthetic track in a race. We can only go by the number of exccllent works he’s had over it and the good race he ran on grass in the Summer Stakes at Woodbine, getting beat three lengths in a 1:32 4/5 mile. As for how good this horse is, let’s remember he defeated a very good horse in Jonathan’s Way in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes and beat him by 2 ¼ lengths in excellent time. And Jonathan’s Way is sitting on a big debut in Saturday’s Risen Star against East Avenue. First Resort has shown he can handle any kind of surface, so synthetic should not be a problem. You might get a pretty good price on him in the Future Wager.
7—Burnham Square (Ian Wilkes, Liam’s Map – Linda, by Scat Daddy)
I moved him up a spot after hearing that he will have two more preps. Let’s start with his Thoro-Graph pattern because it shows he is on the right path to the Derby. After debuting with a “10,” he improved to a “7 ¾,” and then basically paired that up with a slight improvement to a “7, which is what you want to see with a new top. When they pair up like that, what you’re hoping for next is a significant forward move, but not drastic enough that you have to worry about a bounce afterward. He delivered with a jump to a “4,” which puts him on the fringe of the big-time numbers. And another forward move in his final prep, if that is what Wilkes is planning, would put him in a perfect position to peak on Derby day. His sire was a top-class colt at a mile and 1 1/8 miles from a family with a number of speed horses, but his female family should provide enough stamina, with broodmare sire Scat Daddy siring Triple Crown winner Justify. His great-grandsire Sunny’s Halo won the Kentucky Derby and is by Halo, who also sired Derby winner and Horse of the Year Sunday Silence. And Burnham Square’s third dam Listen Well is by Secretariat. And remember, it was Wilkes who was a driving force behind Derby winner Street Sense and was given all the credit by the then semi-retired Carl Nafzger, who was the trainer of record. And Wilkes was also there for Unbridled and won the Breeders’ Cup Classic with Fort Larned, so big races are nothing new to him.
8—Captain Cook (Rick Dutrow, Practical Joke – Pow Wow Wow, by Indian Charlie)
The way his Thoro-Graph pattern is going, if he makes the same move forward, presumably in the Wood Memorial, that he’s done in his other races he could be sitting on a huge number on the first Saturday in May. He started his career at six furlongs with a “9.” Moving up to seven furlongs, he improved to a “6 ¾.” Then stretching way out to 1 1/8 miles, he took a big step forward running a “2.” That already puts him up there with the fastest 3-year-olds in the country. Dutrow, who is as savvy as they come in bringing a horse up to a race dead-fit, now has two months to the Wood, so I wouldn’t worry about a regression and wouldn’t be surprised at all to see another forward move or pairing up that “2.” Either one would make him very live for the Derby, especially with two 1 1/8-miles under him. And don’t glide over that info we gave out last week about him going back nine generations of Whitney (mostly C.V.) blood. That is what Thoroughbred racing used to be about and what it is about now, likely for the very last time.
9—Keep it Easy (Dale Romans, Hard Spun – Boxwood, by English Channel)
To be honest I’m going to have to go back to Week 1 to remember what I like about him and why I ranked him No. 8 when he had never been farther than 6 ½ furlongs. I have never done that before. Going from four short sprints to the 1 1/16-mile Fountain of Youth off a three-month layoff against seasoned two-turn horses seems like a tough task and he doesn’t have any room for mistakes having only two preps. And his four Thoro-Graph numbers form a regular graph that alternates going from Mt. Everest to Death Valley — “21 ½ to 7 to 23 ½ to 3 ¾.” He had three straight half-mile works in :48 1/5 before turning in a sizzling :46 3/5 drill, third fastest of 104 works at the distance, so he still seems to be focusing on speed. So I am torn between what I’m seeing and what he has facing him and my belief that he is a very talented horse who is crying out for more distance. It’s still three more weeks to the Fountain of Youth, so as you can see there is nothing more to say that is relevant in determining who this horse is and what he is capable of. He likely will fluctuate in the Rankings as new races are run, but I would still take a shot in the upcoming Future Wager at what promises to be a huge price. He still intrigues me that much.
10—Rodriguez (Bob Baffert, Authentic – Cayala, by Cherokee Run)
I’m starting to get the feeling he may be Baffert’s secret weapon. Right now he can’t handle Citizen Bull and he’s surely not as fast as Barnes, who he could face in the San Felipe. But he is showing signs of a horse who is improving at the right time, and he did display several positive signs in the Robert Lewis, a race he had no shot of winning against a seasoned powerhouse like Citizen Bull who controlled the pace. But he tried awful hard and showed us he had a second gear when it looked like he was done. And I was quite impressed with his maiden victory the race before and the way he moved over the ground. Turning once again to Thoro-Graph, you have to love his pattern so far. He started off with an “8” going 6 ½ furlongs. Then, stretching out to a two-turn mile he jumped to a “4 ¾.” In the Robert Lewis he paired that up with a slight improvement to a “4 ¼.” When they pair up a top number like that you can expect a good move forward, which would put him right on course for his final Derby prep. His pedigree is a good mixture of speed and stamina and we’ll see what he’s really made of if he goes in the San Felipe. The important thing to remember is that he is a May 20 foal so he’s just a baby and has so much room for improvement.
11—Bullard (Mike McCarthy, Gun Runner – Reve d’Amour, by Warrior’s Reward)
He worked five furlongs in 1:00 4/5 in preparation for the February 22 Rebel Stakes, where most people will bet the other West Point Racing co-owned entrant Sandman, who already has a big effort over the track. But Bullard might be a bit sharper coming off the seven-furlong San Vicente against Barnes in what was designed strictly as a prep for his two-turn debut. Remember, he is the 76-1 Future Wager horse, whose odds were baffling considering how many people raved about him after he won the seven-furlong Bob Hope Stakes by almost five lengths in 1:22 2/5, even though the runner-up Madaket Road was making his first career start. But it was the way he did it that was impressive. If he handles the two turns and can repeat that big closing punch he showed in the Bob Hope he should be pretty tough in here.
12—Chancer McPatrick (Chad Brown, Mckinzie – Bernardreamy, by Bernardini)
I could have put anyone at No. 12, but he is a dual Grade 1 winner, and even if you felt the Champagne Stakes field was suspect he did come home his final quarter in : 24 flat and was undefeated going into the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, in which he came up empty. Was it the two turns or was he simply overmatched by Citizen Bull and company or was it Del Mar? Considering how all the Eastern shippers fared I will give him the benefit of the doubt and just say he didn’t handle Del Mar and its short stretch. He also came out of the race with an ankle chip that had to be removed, which is why he got such a late start. Even with that his “4 ¾” Thoro-Graph number was the second fastest he’s ever run. He’s had three works now and is up to a half-mile and should fit enough by the time he debuts in the March 8 Tampa Bay Derby.
KNOCKING ON THE DOOR
My take on the Sam F. Davis is I have no take. There is no doubt JOHN HANCOCK is a fast and game horse who has a very bright future, and he fought back gallantly against a seasoned stakes horse in OWEN ALMIGHTY and also defeated Remsen winner POSTER. But we’re talking about a horse who has only two starts, both at Tampa Bay, and again won on the lead over a fast, speed-favoring track. I won’t get a true handle on him until after the Tampa Bay Derby and he runs over a different surface. What I loved to see is the way he didn’t want to be pulled up after the wire and was fighting the rider. I have no doubt this is a flat-out runner.
I do, however, believe Poster is a live Derby contender now after a very encouraging performance rallying wide from last on that track after some traffic early and dropping back in distance from the Remsen. He also demonstrated a good turn of foot passing horses on the far turn. He may be by Munnings, but he sure runs like a horse who wants more distance and should make his presence felt wherever he runs.
In addition to JONATHAN’S WAY, a classy colt who should test East Avenue Saturday the way he’s been working, I will be paying close attention to VASSIMO, who we featured in depth last week and are excited to see step up to stakes company. He just needs to be competitive against these horses to move to the next level. And another threat is BUILT, who is featured lower down.
Regardless of how disappointing FEROCIOUS was in his defeats last year, he still maintained fairly solid Thoro-Graph numbers ranging from “6 ¼” to “5 ½,” which put him in line to start the year with a decent number in the Holy Bull despite the lack of works and no doubt being short for the race. But by getting a “10,” it was a much bigger regression than what you’d expect to see. I still believe there is a very good horse in there somewhere waiting to bust out and he is going to put it all together one day. But if he is going to have only one more prep eight weeks later in the Florida Derby, as was originally planned, I don’t know if he can make that big of an improvement numbers-wise to put him in position to win the Derby. And if he does make a big move off a “10” will it be too big a jump to expect him to move forward again in the Kentucky Derby. The bottom line is I can’t use up a precious spot for eight more weeks with so much uncertainty surrounding the horse. If he starts turning in some big works and they decide to give him an extra race to get back on track, he could very well return to the Rankings.
Chad Brown reports that Remsen runner-up AVIATOR GUI is off the Derby trail. Brown has a pair of possibles for the Gotham Stakes in Juddmonte’s GARAMOND, a maiden winner at Tampa going 6 ½ furlongs in his career debut, and Klaravich Stable’s INCENTIVE PAY, who hasn’t run since finishing third in the Hopeful Stakes.
With the next Future Wager coming up, I am giving out two stocks, you might say, that were once hot commodities that have deceased in value, but are now worth investing in because of potential rebounds coming up. Both BUILT and PATCH ADAMS looked like exciting Derby prospects before they had the audacity to lose a race. Built’s Thoro-Graph numbers had jumped from an “8 ¾” to a “2 ¾” in his romp in the Gun Runner Stakes, and then on a sloppy track he didn’t seem to be handling and being stuck down on the inside, he still rallied to be beaten a neck. As a result, his number regressed big time back to an “8,” and he was pretty much a forgotten horse.
Patch Adams jumped from a “7” to a “1 ½” in his jaw-dropping maiden romp, in which he is believed to have run the fastest seven furlongs ever by a 2-year-old,” and then after stumbling at the start of the Southwest Stakes and dropping way back in the pack for the first time, he still rallied through traffic to be beaten in a photo for third. As a result his number also regressed big time to a “9 ½,” and he also was a forgotten horse. It should have been no surprise that both colts “bounced to the moon,” as they say, off their spectacular victories and huge forward jump on Thoro-Graph.
Forgetting about speed figures, both races were a huge learning experience and should toughen them and get them battle-tested for the more difficult tests coming up. We know what both colts are capable of and how brilliant and explosive they are, and now that they got that inevitable “bounce” out of the way who knows what to expect in their next race. What we do know is that Patch Adams should be nowhere near the 12-1 odds he was in the last Future Wager pool. All we’re saying is if you thought highly of them before their last race stick with them one more time. We’ll know a lot more about Built in the Risen Star if the track is fast this time. If his sharp :47 4/5 work is any indication, he could very well give East Avenue all he can handle at a petty good price. Patch Adams is back working at Payson Park and targeting either the Fountain of Youth or Tampa Bay Derby.
Undefeated RIVER THAMES will also be pointed for either the Fountain of Youth or Tampa Bay Derby. In his recent allowance victory he paired up his “5” Thoro-Graph number from his career debut. It’s just a question of how far he wants to go. I thought TAPPAN STREET ran a terrific race in the Holy Bull, but his next start will be the Florida Derby, which means he would have only three lifetime starts before the Derby. Yes, we have seen it successful recently but it is still a tough ask.
Earlier, I mentioned how confused I am about Keep it Easy, a sprinter who doesn’t want to be a sprinter. Well, meet our featured horse this week GATE TO WIRE, whose career has been even more unusual in a way, so we’ll give him more space just in case that rocket he launched in the Swale Stakes will be headed toward Louisville. A son of the speed-oriented Munnings, he started off at 5 ½ furlongs on grass and pressed a :21 3/5 and :45 1/5 pace and went on to win by 1 ¾ lengths. In the six-furlong Futurity Stakes on grass he ran well to finish second to stablemate Mentee, a full brother to Fierceness. So it looked like Todd Pletcher has a nice grass sprinter. But in the five-furlong Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, he got pushed out a bit down the backstretch and never did much running after that, finishing 10th.
Pletcher gave him two months off and tried him on the all-weather track at Gulfstream in an allowance race, but still going only five furlongs, and he just loped around the track in last before passing a few horses late to finish fifth. So it was interesting to see him show up in the seven- furlong Swale Stakes on dirt for the first time against the fastest 3-year-old sprinters in the country. And from out of nowhere he blows the field away in the stretch and draws off to a five-length victory in 1:22 2/5. After running uninspiring Thoro-Graph numbers of “12 ¾, 9 ¾, 14, and 14,” he turns into Superman and runs a “2.”
So now with a potential huge “bounce” awaiting him they have to figure out if he goes for the Fountain of Youth or the one-turn mile Gotham Stakes the same day. But the best is yet to come. If you look at his female family it is safe to say there has never been a horse in this country who had more European class and stamina in his pedigree than this horse, and that is not hyperbole, and is why he is being featured. Remember, we are talking about a horse who had been a five- and 5 ½-furlong sprinter.
First off, his dam is a half-sister to Royal Diamond, winner of the Irish St. Leger at 1 ¾ miles and the British Champions Long Distance Cup at two miles, as well as two other stakes at 1 ¾ miles. His second dam won the 1 3/8-mile Ribblesdale Stakes at Royal Ascot. His broodmare sire Street Cry won the 1 ¼-mile Dubai World Cup and sired Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Zenyatta. Street Cry’s dam, Helen Street, won the Irish Oaks, and her sire Troy won the English Derby by seven lengths and the Irish Derby by five lengths. Gate to Wire’s dam is “inbred” to full-brothers His Majesty and Graustark, both by the legendary Ribot, two-time winner of the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. The two brothers combined to sire the winners of all three Triple Crown races. Gate to Wire’s dam also is also inbred four times to Natalma, dam of one of the most influential sires in history, two-time classic winner Northern Dancer. And finally, Gate to Wire’s second dam is by Danehill and her third dam is by Sadler’s Wells. These two stallions built the foundation of the Coolmore dynasty. Together they sired over 670 stakes winners, mainly in Europe and Australia, and close to 60 classic winners. So, good luck trying to figure out what Gate to Wire is going to do when he keeps stretching out. Munnings didn’t do much for him sprinting. What is his dam going to do?
A lot of people are taking about the spectacular maiden victory by COLLOQUIAL and his outrageous speed figures. He can be addressed more at a future date, but for now he’s only been 6 ½ furlongs, is by Vekoma, and he had an eight-month layoff between his two starts. He certainly is exciting, but I doubt they are thinking Derby, as the Gotham, the logical next step, is only three weeks away.
A long-range look at the February 22 Rebel Stakes, we could get BULLARD, SANDMAN, PATCH ADAMS, SPEED KING, TIZTASTIC, and COAL BATTLE, who has moved from Delta Downs and has begun working at Oaklawn.
GETAWAY CAR should be favored in the Sunland Derby after Baffert decided to keep him home instead of going to the Saudi Derby. There are several interesting horses in there and Wayne Lukas could have another good one for My Racehorse in CALDERA, who was very impresive last out with first time blinkers and Lasix.
Racing historian, author, and award-winning retired journalist for the Daily Racing Form and The Blood-Horse, Steve Haskin was inducted into the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame’s Media Roll of Honor in 2016. Known for his racing knowledge and insightful prose, he has been an exclusive contributor to Secretariat.com since 2020.
Oddly, East Avenue closed at just 18-1 in the Kentucky Derby Future Wager that closed on Sunday at 6pm ET. Somebody still likes him.
While the Rebel Stakes is offering 50 points to the victor on Saturday at Oaklawn, I find it interesting that Baffert has another unraced three year old horse, Cornucopian ($1.1 million/Into Mischief) entered in the 5th race there.
Some of his works include a 47.2, a 59.2, a 47 flat, a 46.3 among his fastest. The tentative plan, as I understand, is run this race and then point to the Arkansas Derby at the end of March.
Hey John
Yes indeed, another Into Mischief colt that could be a prospect on this year’s Derby trail. I’ve been following his work regime for some time and anxiously awaiting his debut race. He’ll be shipping in with Baffert’s other Derby prospect, Madaket Road, entered in the Rebel Stakes. Cornucopian’s tail-female side is loaded with class and stamina influence, IMO. His 2nd dam, Pleasant Home, earned around $1.0 Million in career earnings, including the BC Distaff. In addition, there’s Seeking the Gold, Pleasant Colony, Maplejinsky, Con Game, Buckpasser, His Majesty and Nijinsky on that tail-female side.
BTW, both colts (Cornucopian and Madaket Road) will be ridden by Irad Ortiz Jr., which adds to their winning potential, IMO.
My current top Derby Dozen, listed in preferential order.
1) River Thames
2) Sovereignty
3) Citizen Bull
4) Barnes
5) John Hancock
6) Journalism
7) Getaway Car
8) Magnitude
9) Disco Time
10) First Resort
11) Captain Cook
12) Bullard
KOTD
Speed King, Sandman, Coal Battle, Caldera, Tappan Street, Hypnus and Rodriguez.
Note: The upcoming Rebel Stakes appears to be one of the most competitive Derby prep races yet to be run.
That was a nice solid comeback win for Getaway Car and a nice fight by Caldera.
Pace was solid (about 5 L fast and the final was much more than that.
I was hoping Caldera would win like his dam sire Tiznow when he beat Giant’s Causeway.
Have a small piece in Caldera . so proud of the way he ran and still a bit green. I think now with that fight both horses will move forward big time.
Congratulations, Mark! Caldera ran quite a race. I was impressed and look forward to seeing where he goes from here.
Updated Wm Hill odds:
1. Barnes 6.5-1
2. Citizen Bull 8-1
3. Patch Adams, Rodriguez 15-1
4. Sovereignty, Disco Time 22-1
5. Burnham Road, Getaway Car 25-1
6. Journalism, Magnitude, Cancer 30-1
Edit: Burnham Square, and Chancer!
Thanks, Biggy. No accounting for intelligence in these odds, is there? Barnes is lower than Citizen Bull and Patch is half the price of Journalism, Burnham Road and Magnitude, who have both won graded stakes. Who is Chancer? Has he even raced?
Hi Ms Blacktype:
Chancer is Chancer McPatrick…
I like to follow the futures movement: Wm Hill is quick to adjust based on race results and wagering $$$
I agree Barnes is too low here, would definitely press Journalism at 30-1…
D’oh! I’m clearly getting forgetful!
Me as well!!!😊
For me, happens all the time now!
Yes, I’m well past senior “moments.” More like 24/7.
Caldera got b eat a nostril….thought he ran best…Getaway Car a solid ride a ND hard fought victory–
That was a good race! Getaway Car is very game and gutted out the win, but I don’t see him winning the Derby (oops, I’ve just made sure he will!). Caldera could be any kind. I would guess Lucas will try him in the Arkansas Derby next.
Gutsy win by Getaway Car to win the Sunland Derby in a photo finish against Caldera. These 2 were 9 lengths clear of the third place finisher. The win by Getaway Car flatters Journalism, who beat Getaway Car by 3 1/2 lengths going away in the Los Al Futurity.
KDFW4 just closed. Glad to get Keep It Easy at 69-1 in KDFW4. I bet him to win and boxed him with the Field and with Journalism. IMO Keep it Easy has a big upset chance in the MAR 1 FOY. Journalism is my other KDFW horse at 52-1 in KDFW2. I like Journalism’s chances to upset Barnes in the MAR 1 San Felipe.
Nice bets, JoeP; Hope you cash on Derby day!
Looking forward to San Felipe and Journalism finishing in front of a few Bafferts!
“All Others” has the Risen Star winner—and some other recent winners…
Thanks Biggy. Barnes is getting all of the press but Journalism is no slouch. He should run well in the San Felipe and IMO has a big upset chance against the Bafferts.
Journalism is the real deal.
Agree Mike. Can’t wait till he runs in two weeks.
Joe, yesterday mentioned that a nut on another site makes a career of slamming both Mandella and Shirreffs and earlier this week indicating Mandella “is a blight on racing”. Amazing!
Good bets in Pool 4, Joe P. I agree with you on Journalism and Keep It Easy. I also bet the “usual suspects”, Burnham Square, Sandman and Sovereignty. So glad to get Keep It Easy at 69-1. IMO, he’s flying under the radar with the pedigree to run all day.
Good Luck!
Thanks Dewey. Good luck on your KDFW picks. Steve opened my eyes to Keep It Easy. He looks like the real deal.
I have Journalism in my futures as well as CALDERA ( had to we own a small piece of him ) and Getaway car. I think sometimes folks don’t look at bloodlines and are quick to write off young horses if they dont win everything at 2. Regression is what will take me off a colt but it has to be at 3 and Getaway car has improved as well as Journalism and both have the breeding to only get better as the yr goes. It was Calderas 4th career start and 1st Stakes race and boy what an improvement. still green but he fought back as well. Those two should for sure move forward. Hoping on Journalism next week as i think he could be a monster.
It was probably inevitable at some point on the trail, but I have 6 of 14 in my futures running in the Rebel:
Coal Battle, Bullard, Speed King, Hypnus, Admiral Dennis, and Madaket Road…Probably going to have mixed feelings after the race! Very much looking forward
Representing (Behold the King … my name for him …. For Bill Dawson ….Curl and Hold ) had his best work yet for Baffert today…. 4 furlongs in 47:40. Maybe he can run.!?1? .. at least for 4 furlongs … to be continued.
RE: G2 Rebel Stakes, Saturday, 2-22, Oaklawn Park, R11.
1) Coal Battle
2) Admiral Dennis
3) Sandman
4) Hypnus
5) Madaket Road
6) Publisher
7) Dreaminblue
8) Innovator
9) Smoken Wicked
10) Bullard
11) Speed King
12) Brereton’s Baytown
13) Tiztastic
14) Hot Gunner
Good luck trying to handicap this race.
Smoken Wicked and Coal Battle will be going for their fourth straight win. Sandman was closing strongly on Speed King in the Southwest, and Bullard certainly deserves consideration for win honors,
Safe trips to all.
Forgot that they may ship Barnes
Tha Oaklawn late pick four next Sat—full fields of horses coming from all over! A handicapped dream!
Maybe a Dart Board Bill ????
Not a bad idea, Downthestretch.
Looks like a 4-1 favorite! I’m going to take an in-depth look at Sandman!..
That’s an interesting field, Bill. Lots of speed, so it could set up for a closer like Coal Battle — although he’s in the one hole.
i’m sticking with Coal Battle. I think he is an iron horse.
To my kind fellow contributors who get worried about sudden absences, I report that I will be flying tonight to the island of Bohol (Philippines) for the wedding of my son.
The next two weeks I expect to read Steve’s rankings but I won’t be commenting …
I was appointed to deliver the wedding speech as no one else was bold enough to do it… wish me luck!
Keep the fun going on here…
Hasta la vista colegas!
Hi Nelson
Congratulations on the upcoming wedding of your son.
Your wedding speech will go much easier if you have a couple glasses of champagne, prior to the speech. 🙂
Stay safe.
Thanks Bill… at least I will be familiar with half of the audience…
Take care!
Have fun, Nelson. I thought you would be off to the Saudi Cup. James McDonald at Flemington on Saturday said that the connections are very confident Romantic Warrior will handle the dirt perfectly. Training on it is one thing though.
Thanks Davids… I will try to watch the Saudi Cup but the Rebel will be run very early at Bohol time zone… the replays will do everything considered …
I know the feeling, Nelson. Sometimes you’re lucky on YouTube they have the race without the result attached to the video.
The Blood-Horse will have a reply of the Rebel Stakes in their Recent Stakes Results just ignore all the writing and head for the Stakes Results and touch fast. Ha ha
Nelson , a man of your qualities for you it is probably 2nd nature. Congrats on the son’s wedding.
Thanks Downstretch…your kind words are really encouraging…!
Congratulations! Safe travels. Your speech will be awesome!
Nelson, have a safe trip. Flown to Manila several times. Also,island of Boracay is great!
Barnes is not entered in the Rebel , so likely he will target the San Felipe along with possibly Rodriguez. Journalism worked today 5F at SA in his preparation to run in the San Felipe. I like Journalism’s chances to upset Barnes. Journalism has 2 turn route experience and he will be rolling in the SA stretch and finishing strong in a bid to punch his ticket to the KY Derby.
Joe—Mandella sent Omaha Beach to Arkansas…mewishes McCarthy would avoid Bob! Journalism will love the ten furlong of the Derby—I want him on there! I’m not sure about Bob’s Brigade! That is a tough road to hoe….
Steve, I would suggest adding a category called something like “Ladies in Waiting” for those three year olds that have not yet run in 2025. They can easily get back on the list once they prove that they have transitioned from 2 to 3 year olds. That would open the top 12 to 3 year olds that have a real chance to get to the KD. East Avenue being the prime candidate for such a grouping.
Yes, William, like having a Real Derby Dozen for those who have actually completed as 3 year olds and a Phantom Derby Dozen for those that impressed as 2 year olds but yet haven’t completed as a 3 year old yet.
It makes way for a more plausible, objective approach than wishfully hoping that a top 2 year old is automatically going to be as good as a three year old.
Godolphin has another shot at winning the long coveted Kentucky Derby in First Resort.
Will be watching how First Resort progresses.
Fun pondering pedigrees from the Fairgrounds results yesterday.
East Avenue definitely disappointed, but Good Cheer looked the part in her short field. Medaglia D’Oro’s forte remains siring females (bonus points for unique facial markings and wall eyes if you want to run them). Wedding Toast was a worthy match. Took ‘em long enough to pair those two.
Magnitude was still full of it during the Risen Star gallop out, but was blowing hard by the time he got to the winner’s circle. I hope he didn’t leave everything in that race. Either way, what a fabulous female family to pair with Not This Time! Octave (second dam) never finished off the board in 13 races, with 2 G1 wins. She was 2nd to Rags to Riches in the ‘07 KY Oaks. (2004 foal crop, showing up strong again: I believe they were the best collective group so far in my lifetime.) Rockadelic wasn’t a racing success, but may just be one of those Bernardini daughters who produce instead of winning races. I’ll be watching Magnitude closely, despite the bum Derby record for the Asmussen barn. (Fun fact: the last KY Derby winner with 4 white feet was Authentic.)
The Risen Star was bookended by Not This Time sons, with Giocoso finishing last. Sometimes it takes a while to find the ideal surface or distance for Not This Time horses. Giocoso seems to have declared, “Turf, please!”
Near the other LA, Puca has another winner in Baeza. I’ll watch that colt with interest. He may be light on stamina, but I trust John Shirreffs to find good spots for him. Puca, a modern blue hen? Whodathunkit. They can come from anywhere.
Good post on Magnitude, Katy. He’s definitely a Derby contender for sure, even if he bombs in his next race. I’ve learned my lesson from discounting Mystic Dan last year.
Is East Avenue still on the Derby trail? He is still taking action in the current Kentucky Derby Future Wager.
I had projected Magnitude to run around an 86 BSF. It would take the greatest trainer in American history to get improvement like that. Not to be Captain Obvious, but a “bounce” is quite probable in his next.
Brad C is likely to win the Kentucky Oaks. But, with which horse? One of his best won’t be back until summer.
Turn the page and we move on to the Rebel at Oaklawn and the Battaglia at Turfway next Saturday. The forecast looks good for Hot Springs. The Battaglia will be a night game.
Congratulations Rebel’s Romance!
What a horse!
Walsh, I’m sure a nice person, has no business having a 3 year old colt heading to the KD. It is just not his strength as a trainer. There is reason Baffert has the most KD wins ever, his focus is developing strongest young colts. He is head and shoulders above all else hands down for this category.
Nicer than your hero. You and some take exception with EVERY barn but a couple.
“Holy Bouncy Boiler Plate!”
“Holy Hole In A Doughnut!”
“Holy Understatements, Batman1!”
With apologies to Robin, I, like others, wonder where in the world did this horse (Magnitude) come from?
He won the Risen Star like, well, like Risen Star might have won the race named after him. The seismic waves were off the charts. Richter and his scale gave up about 100 yards from the finish line. It was a quake with after shocks felt even today. It was a 10 magnitude.
With this earth shattering performance by Magnitude I conclude to what Robin would say…
“Holy Fruit Salad Batman!”
Magnitude sure has a good name! And his other two wins were also on the front end….So—NOW, the Derby trail has TWO confirmed front runners! Could be a big Derby pace! The big question is—WHAT happened with East Avenue? He was cruising, and….NOTHING!—Was it a bleed? Breathing issue?He looked like he was in the cat bird seat….
(From 80…..to 109, on the Beyer Scale……)..
That quit really did look like entrapment or hemorrhage, didn’t it? I’m sure they had ye olde endoscope out right quick.
He looked so good…was sitting beautifully….then backed out of it—something happened..
Similar thing happened to Tux at Gulfstream Park a few weeks back but no explanation given.
Impressive front running win by Magnitude in the Risen Star ⭐️. He set solid fractions and kept going. A definite pace factor in the KY Derby. No easy uncontested lead for Citizen Bull.
Steve,
I felt and heard your heart hit you toes when East Avenue back up on the turn coming into the stretch, just like mine hit my toes when seeing Chuck of Gold pass Built in the last 2 steps at the finish line screwing up my exacta with Magnitude . I ended up playing an exact box of American Prom, East Ave, Septarian, Built , Vam Carli and Magnitude. I looked at Chuck of Gold last night and in the end just did not think he was in the same class as the rest. The only thing that gave him any semblance with me was that he was bred by Brereton C Jones. Such is horse racing and all I can say is ……. BUILT SUCKS !!! ( ok I got that out of my system. )
Where does East Avenue go from here well definitely out of the top 12 ranking. If there was a race that was set for him it was the Risen Star. Clear weather , fast track and an inside bias. He showed nothing in this race except he ran 2/3’s of a race and stopped. Why he stopped we may never get a true answer. This does not seem to be a very transparent industry unless it happens (breakdowns) right in front of our eyes. My initial thoughts he was vastly undertrained. If that is the case does he have enough time to get fit enough. Only race I see he would have time for and get enough points is the Blue Grass Stakes and the positive there he would be running on a track he has won a race over. So all hope may not be lost for him. If he bled or suffered an injury then he is off the trail of this Kentucky Derby. But another question is he really that good??? Again I questioned earlier who did he really beat in Breeders Futurity?
Where does Steve go from here with his top 12. Some say Sovereignty steps up to #1 but Mott seems to hedging a little on the FOY track configuration and short stretch… this horse right now is in catch up mode for his first race He will need to get the right pace as he is a closer , but in the long run for the Derby that is a positive. Steve is friends with Mott so that is the way I think he will go and it is his column. In the FOY right now my $$$ will be with Burnham Square. He and Magnitude have been the most impressive so far to me followed closely by John Hancock.
Tomorrow we find out were Barnes and Rodriquez next race will be. Is it the Rebel or the San Felipe. Did Baffert lose any training time with either this past week with the So Cal.rains? Again we will know more tomorrow when the Rebel entries are posted and post positions are drawn.
Will be looking forward to next week’s rating. Who will be the new # 1? Where does Magnitude end up after his impressive win? Does John Hancock get a nod?
Who knows…. Only Steve (The Shadow ) Haskin knows !!!!
Have a good one !!!
Wouldn’t it be his choice to move East Ave up or down in Derby Dozen?
Magnitude: 109 Beyer (from another site)
I have been partial to Citizen Bull as the legitimate leader of this crop; but seeing East Avenue fading badly today sparked my yearning for the Golden Age of racing.
The great horses of the past are like items we see in a museum, shown in taxidermy displays to be admired as things never to be seen again…
Suddenly I start resenting the signs of the modern times in racing. Unreliable 2-year-old champions, your favorite horse running every 5 to 8 weeks, horses looking like the second coming of Secreatariat in one race and turning into ordinary runners the next. Derby winners who never won another race becoming unworthy holders of the Garland of Roses, top 3-year-olds who don’t run at 4, and the fragility of the Thoroughbres nowadays…
It is too easy to be unimpressed by present-day racehorses… Perhaps I should stop chasing the ghost of Secrertariat !
Cheer up Nelson,
Sure East Avenue fell flat on his face today but we saw a real barn burner today in Magnitude and in the last few weeks in Burnham Square and John Hancock and who knows what Mr Baffert might pull out of his hat.
If you saw my earlier post last night. Who did East Avenue really beat in the Breeder Futurity???
I too long for the yesteryear for the Wittingham’s, Stephan’s and Jenkins. Nobody today trains a horse like they did but we have to live with what we got and for the most part and that is not much.
So my question for you is …. Who do like in the Rebel?
Rome isn’t burning. East will be back.
Tiztastic in the Rebel. He has already proven himself and has won nearly 1 million. Part of the problem is hanging onto horses who haven’t really proven themselves and also can’t go the distance or whose training is not distance related. Too many of them are flashes in the pan as 2 year olds because that is what sells. It will be interesting in 2025 to see if Vekoma, McKenzie, or Tiz the Law produces 3 year old winners.
William, Tiztastic got a rotten post in the Rebel which was disheartening. With Tiz the Law wait until he gets the big crops to judge him. Coolmore is high on him thus far which is the best sign.
Four of the colts I like are all in the Rebel, regrettably, all with disappointing posts. You can’t win sometimes.
Maybe this was a omen that I should have paid more attention to …. kept hearing the the song played this past week by Neil Young called….. Heart of Gold!!
Now all I hear (and feel) is. HURTS SO BAD by Linda Ronstadt.
My wife read thsee 24that to me.Boy was that well said. Great job Nelson. Wish I had written it
Nelson, you have eloquently expressed what I have been feeling for sometime now.
Nelson, American Pharoah won the Triple Crown and was an excellent 2 year old. Essential Quality is the only 2 year old to win the Breeders’ Cup and the Belmont Stakes. History making colts who were excellent 2 year olds to go on to be great 3 year olds.
Citizen Bull might be better than you fear. All is not lost, my friend. Take heart.
The more I see, or don’t see, from this group, the more I like Burnham Square. And River Thames could be a big talent.
Magnitude ran them off their feet, in good fractions and final time, took a breather in a later quarter, maybe he’ll move ahead. The long shots pickers chose the wrong one. Others seemed like they need more training, could not take the early pace.
I feel bad for East Avenue, he was game and determined, hope they can do something.
I kept coming back to Magnitude.
Should have listened to my intuition!
I didn’t know anything about him, then saw he finished back in the Le Compte. I like the sire.
I like Not This Time as well.
Good looking stallion and seems to cross well with different mare lines.
Magnitude might very well go all the way and win the Derby.
The Albaugh family has always had a quality breeding program in my opinion.
Magnitude I can kinda see, but Chunk of Gold? That’s the Derby trail, I guess. I also hope East Avenue is all right. Look like he was uncomfortable (perhaps bothered) in the upper stretch. Still, he did not show up.
No idea who the No. 1 Derby horse is now.
Just noticed Magnitude is inbred to Secretariat top and bottom (5×5). Also inbred to Fappiano and Caro in the same generation. AND his second dam won the CCA Oaks at the Derby distance, 10 furlongs.
He’s yet another good one out of a Bernardini mare
Man, I miss my boy so much 🥺
No problem, Ms Blacktype
Just drop East Avenue off the Derby Rankings, in Week Four, and move Sovereignty up to #1. The question is, where will Steve place Magnitude in the Derby Dozen?
I would think somewhere mid-range.
Much as I respect your enthusiasm, Sovereignty has yet to make his first start this year, Bill. I gotta see it to believe in it.
Ms Blacktype
You’ll know soon enough when Sovereignty goes up against River Thames in the FOY Stakes.
Many don’t show up, Ms. Blacktype. Least when I’m wrong,which is often, don’t run for the hills like some who pine away for a certain barn when not working out.
And that is exactly why you don’t put money down on a horse in the KDFW if the horse you want to bet is running the same weekend! Over $10K bet on East Avenue who most likely won’t even make the Derby gate??
You don’t know that. Possible he still gets there and if not, other races for him.
Put a wrap on eastern for the KD. Cmon Mike u know better!
Magnitude wins the Risen Star Stakes in Stakes record time (1:48.85) at 43 to 1. Another 43-ro-1 horse came in second (Chunk of Gold). Triggering a $53K superfecta…!
I hope East Avenue is OK…
Magnitude had a troublesome trip in the Lecomte but today he was able to dictate the pace with no pressure whatsoever…
Another son of Not this Time and a Bernardini maternal grandson who is poised to be a player in route to the Triple Crown…
Hi Nelson
Yes indeed, a major upset by Magnitude. That’s why I usually flip my superfecta p/w wagers over as I did in the Risen Star. Built did his part by finishing 3rd, but East Avenue didn’t do his part, fading in the stretch run.
Magnitude and Disco Time share the same sire, Not This Time, and their broodmare sire line leads directly to A. P. Indy. Since Disco Time beat Magnitude quite handily in the Lecomte, you would think this flatter’s Disco Time quite significantly, moving forward. No doubt we’ll see a rematch of these two Not This Time colts in the Louisiana Derby on March 22nd.
Chin up Nelson, there’s plenty of big 100-point races coming up in the near future.
I reviewed the replay of the Lecomte last nigth and realized that Magnitude ran an outstanding race after a slow start and looking very uncomfortable behind horses … and in the homestretch he was bumped hard as well… I included him in my Super at the end but the Chunk of Gold took a huge chunk of my confidence today… Anyway, I had the gut feeling that there would be a longshot winning the Risen Star but did not foresee East Avenue deflating like that… I hope there is nothing amiss with him.. I still have Citizen Bull as the king of the heap so far …
And yes, the upcoming Derby preps promise to be even more exciting …
Nelson, the doubt came to fruition in the Risen Star Stakes.
Yes Davids… East Avenue finishing 10th 23 lengths behind Magnitude singnals something going awfully wrong with him… I hope he is not seriously injured or mentally unfit…
Godolphin’s main foes agains its Derby prospects have been illnesses and injuries… one thing I know they will take the best care of East Avenue…
Nelson, you’re forgetting Essential Quality who simply ran an extra 100 yards more than those in front of him. At least justice was served later in the Belmont Stakes the same year.
Nelson, Bernardini is such a phenomenal BMS
Yes Betsy… Bernardini is well represented this year by Sovereignty, Chancer McPatrick, Rapture and now Magnitude has stepped into the stage…
Never heard of Rapture….that’s amazing !
Those were fast fractions (for the distance) and EA was right behind the leader. Understatedly faded being his 1st race in months.
Fairgrounds late pick three $80…….pick four $367……hmmmm…….Oaklawn prep had a quicksand track—today had a paved highway track…..43-1 ten lengths…..
Put a wrap on Eastern Avenue, need to take another rest.
Seriously doubt that Jeff.
Gulp!
What a display. Congrats to Steve. He may have a say in Louisville. News at 11.
El Kabong, I’ve never been high on East Avenue. There’s been one Medaglia d’Oro colt to run in the Kentucky Derby and Bolt d’Oro ended up 12th in the race.
Perhaps some of the colts that have run this year and performed well in the prep races should in the ‘elite dozen’ while those that haven’t run this year should earn their way into the higher echelons.
Stated fifteen-years ago he’s not winning a Derby. Standing by that.
East Avenue oozing class during warm ups. Hoping he’s not short for this 1 1/8 race. Also, Vassimo is looking good.
Thank you for the great update (as always). Re: next week wishing you smooth runnings and an uneventful trip home.
East Ave. for the win.
Well Fairgrounds doing their best to ensure an East Avenue win. Clear weather, fast track, inside like a freeway now all that has to happen is for him to show up
I’m watching the weather at New Orleans closely. If there’s a downpour before the Risen Star, don’t count out American Promise. He ran that 95 Beyer on a muddy track.
Otherwise, I’ll go with an East Avenue—Vassimo boxed exacta.
The Fair Grounds track is playing fast… Yinzer won wire to wire a MSW in 1:44.49 for the 1 1/6 distance.
The Mineshaft Stakes at the same distance will be run in 10 minutes.
I expect the time for the Risen Star to be close or faster than 1:50 …
It’s a highway! Yinzer had no problem staying—he had been fading….
Hall of Fame’s time in the Mineshaft S. was 2/5 off the track record…
*correction: 1:42 vs 1:42 4/5 is 4/5 appart…!
At least Hall of Fame passed horses! THAT…on today’s track surface is a sign of quality!
Oaklawn Park, remainder of card cancelled.
And Aqueduct races for Sunday due to high winds.
I’ll fashion an exacta/tri wager in The Risen Star—a race named for the best three year old that I can remember, out of Louisiana—East Avenue—with Septarian, Giocoso, Vamos Carlitos, the big favorite with three longshots! East Avenue and Jonathan’s Way were heavily bet, at Del Mar vs Bob—and the west coast speed is just a faster brand, they train them to go fast right out of there….back East….western based horses usually break on top but get tired…I expect East Avenue to grab the early lead and win easily—looking for a longshot or three…to fill out the verticals! Safe trips to all..
East Avenue “stumbled badly at the start” when racing “at Del Mar vs Bob”.
Out west, horses run as fast as they can from the start and the race ends up with a slower final time than a similar race in New York.
Yes….I give East Avenue a mulligan, for the Breeders Cup…west coast is about speed, they don’t replicate it in Kentucky, as a rule…but–‘I look for western closers, that couldn’t get up out west—horses like Ferdinand, Alysheba, Giocomo—couldn’t beat the speed, in Santa Anita preps, but they won The Derby—today Fairgrounds looks speed favoring….
I haven’t seen western closers winning many Derbies in the last several years. Most Derbies have been won from nearer the front. I don’t think Fairgrounds was necessarily speed favoring, just that the best horses were front runners or near the front.
Other than East Avenue, the field is pretty unaccomplished. I think there are enough question marks to make Vamos Carlitos a decent win bet with a saver exacta EA over VC.
I’ve not dabbled in the first three futures, but I’m looking at as many as five potential bets tomorrow. Price, performance, pedigree, and pace probability are what I’m considering. It’s an alliterative analysis. 🙂 The five are Built, Burnham Square, Journalism, Poster, and Sovereignty.
If current betting holds at around 13-1, I’ll likely leave out Burnham Square. Poster is the big bomb. Considering that Poster began his career with two turf wins, I think the connections must be extremely confident about putting him on the Derby trail. As Mr Haskin wrote, he looks like a distance horse despite being by Munnings. His dam’s sire is Tapit (!!) and the second dam produced Bernardini.
When I look at the Risen Star and start evaluating this race it actually looks pretty wide open. I know East Avenue will probably be the overwhelming favorite but when I look at the Keeneland race the Breeders Futurity who did he really beat?!?!?! Except for Ferocious and he is questionable as a Derby horse but were is Dapper Moon, Ready for Peace, Big Boat , Tenacious Leader none of them are vying for the 3 year old leadership. EA got a really uncontested lead and was very much on the lead by himself with not much pressure. I just can’t see him going a mile and 1/8 on the lead were it looks like he will be getting some pressure on a 3 1/2 month layoff. I see him fading in the stretch. I got to believe Walsh will not be putting him on the lead (unless it is a sloppy track) and behind the leaders. He said this horse he feels does not need the lead. I have a hunch that is what we will be seeing tomorrow. With that said he still will be part of my exacta box but would not be shocked if he is upset tomorrow. If he does win wire to wire tomorrow (if the track is dry) we may be looking at a Super horse.
Some of you maybe saying well what about Citizen Bull and I say the same thing . Will he be able to sustain a lead on the front end when pressured. We may not know that until the day of the KD….. More tomorrow as the race gets closer
Downthestretch, I’m a doubting Thomas as well and go along with your basic premiss. The Risen Star should answer some questions but then again, it might open up quite a lot of other questions.
Maxfield was off for 7 months and returned a winner. East avenue is only 3 1/2 months. He is better than these.
True about Maxfield but one big difference…. he was a closer and East Avenue has shown us to now he likes the front end. If he can rate it will be a big positive for him. Again if he is more than one dimensional like Walsh thinks he is it is all to his favor. This isn’t a super strong field but to me looks to be a field that presents more challenges than he has faced before.
Again I am not saying he is not the best horse in this race but he does look vulnerable.
Well Downthestretch, I think we proved a point, no?
Yes we did Davids… But wish Built could have held on for 2nd !!!
A race entrant that is the subject of an announced post-race positive for a substance not allowed on race day, shouldn’t be allowed to run.
Vassimo must go!
“All Others” is currently 8-1……that’s a good price….
Baeza won nicely today—his time was a good one, track was “good”, older ran much slower in the next race—Varney went wrong—Rank had a hard take-up, on the clubhouse turn, then just did not fire….Baeza is out of Puca…..
Rank just isn’t good….they should try him on turf
Betsy, Race 4 at Gulfstream on Saturday – A. P. Kid and Summer Ridge.
David, I’ve been waiting on AP Kid for a long time…he was supposed to debut in November, but had a setback
He’s a striking, gorgeous, dark bay with a big big blaze …it’s tough to debut at a mile, but he’s ready
🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏
Betsy, I was surprised by the tactics chosen by the connections of A. P. Kid unless the colt was totally determined to lead and there was no point fighting it. Still, it seemed odd to me.
David’s huge move late—by the (longshot) winner, in the Black Caviar…
Matthew, Melbourne had heavy downpours the night before and early Saturday morning the track was a lot softer than it looked according to people who were at the track.
Yes, I was happy to hear that Baeza won. I haven’t seen the race yet, but I hope he turns out to be a good three-year-old. He certainly has the breeding, and I wish him well.
John Shirreffs brings them along slowly—and he doesn’t have “therapeutic overages”, a guy you can root for—he had a tough 2024…2025 now has two winners, and he has been in the money over 50%….
Good comments Matthew. Disgrace that a loon on another site takes constant shots at Shirreffs and Mandella. Individual this week posted Mandella is “a blight on racing”. Betting they never had even a percentage point as much success in their pathetic life as both these trainers.
I hardly direct compliments to Steve, as they are unlikely to be well received. But I must comment him for his measured approach to the compilation of his Derby Rankings in 2025.
He didn’t consume the Branes Kool-Aid and assign the BB trainer super horse the #1 ranking. Neither did he assign the #1 ranking to Citizen Bull the upset winner of the BCJ.
I can live with some of his rankings that I consider unworthy as I am not one that considered perfect the enemy of good.
EDIT
‘commend’
In reviewing the videos of First Resort races. The Saratoga Special provided revelation of just how powerful TP’s High Octane can impact performance.
Showcase was in hand begging for running room after fractions of 21.85; 44.87; 1:09.98 were recorded. He ran by First Resort as if he was tied to a pole and then was geared down in 1:16.40.
All other entrants in the race, including First Resort were fully extended. TP is such an exceptional trainer that his entrant was the only one that didn’t take a deep breath whilst covering 6 1/2FF in 1:16.40 geared down.
Showcase is unlikely to ever run again.
First Resort who fell the victim to loaded opponent. When up to Canada for his 3rd start and turf debut in the Summer Staks (G1. He finished a creditable 4th by 31/2L. When next seen he was demolishing opponents in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) in the 3rd fastest time recorded in the stakes.
I think Vamos Carlitos has a good shot at a piece, of The Risen Star! Ran lights out, finished fast—and came back with a good work—outside drawbut he will take way back….could grab a piece of this….nice clain!..there’s stamina here..
I will take all the wager on the referenced entrant
Sneaky good come home finish, in his last—first since claimed..
TOO SLOW
Favored East Avenue is by Medaglia d’Oro….Mama’s Carlitos dam sire is Medaglia d’Oro—and his sire is Catholic Boy—newly moved to California, and a very nice looking stallion! Vamos Carlitos is a $40k November claim—could be a diamond in the rough!..
The following tables are dedicated to some of you interested in the Average Winning Distance (AWD) of sires and maternal grandsires of some notable Derby prospects.
The top 10 by AWD of sires are:
Journalism, Grande, Sandman, Getaway Car, Rodriguez, First Resort, Hill Road, Built, Bullard and Madaket Road.
The top 10 by AWD of damsires are:
Gate to Wire, Hill Road, Built, East Avenue, Poster, Journalism, Grande, Chancer McPatrick and Barnes in dead heat with Sovereignty.
Hill Road (7.7 average) looks like an ideal Belmont Stakes horse at this point…
Burnham Square shows 7 and 7.2 average winning distance for sire and damsire respectively, placing him among the top 13 Derby eligibles.
Keep it Easy, ranked #9 on Steve’s Week Three Rankings, looks mighty enticing at 50-1 on KD Futures Pool #4.
Other Derby hopefuls, with enticing odds in Pool #4 are as follows.
Cyclone State: 50-1
Getaway Car: 80-1 (odds will drop significantly if he wins the Sunland Derby on Sunday).
Hypnus: 80-1
Praetor: 50-1
San Saba: 40-1
Sandman: 40-1
Futures Pool #4 closes on Sunday, 2-16.
Edit: I just noticed that the Sunland Derby is set to go off at 6:17 pm Eastern time, which is after Futures Pool #4 closes, at 6:00 Eastern. Getaway Car’s odds at 80-1, might not change that much. He certainly appears to be the one to beat in the Sunland Derby.
By Curlin, out of a Morning Line mare, Getaway Car has fallen off the radar of late, but looked very impressive in his maiden win, and the Best Pal as well. His latest works are solid and appears ready for a good performance in the Sunland Derby, IMO.
Bill,
Vekoma’s progenies are very competitive. He might just be the leading sire in his category if not close to same.
In the Sunland Derby trainer Diodoro has the Vekoma sired and undefeated in two starts, Itmybirthday. He appears to be very fast. He won over 51/2F in 1:03+ and 6F in 1:09+ albeit at Turf Paradice which could have a very speedy surface.
Form a pedigree perspective his dam, After The Rose was sired by TC winning sire Pioneerof The Nile and out of Tap Of The Day a full sister to mega stallion Tapit.
Given this colt’s dam line, he should be able to carry his speed over 9F. But does he have the class to defeat the ML favorite? That is unknown!
What is known is Gaming, BB first shipper to contest a KD prep didn’t rise a gallop. His last out race was the Los Al Futurity.
“What is known is Gaming”
I’m sure you meant Getaway Car.
Poor sentence construction.
What is known – Gaming was BB’s first shipper to contest a KD prep. He didn’t raise a gallop. He was a last out starter in the Los al Futurity the same last out race for Getaway Car.
Today, River Thames breezed 4 furlongs in 49.68, at Palm Beach Downs. It appears he’s right on schedule for his next outing in the Fountain of Youth Stakes on March 1st.
The FOY has all the makings of a great Derby prep race for the Florida Derby on 3-29.
Is River Thames still #1 on your list?
You bet your bippy, Counter Point.
First of all best of luck with your eye surgery Steve. I’ve had cataract surgery on both my eyes and thankfully it is a very common low risk deal. The only issue I dealt with was my eyes adjusting to the amount of light getting into my eyes after surgery. I live in the snow belt and the sunlight reflecting off the white snow forced me to wear very good sunglasses especially when driving until my eyes became accustomed to the difference in the before and after. Keep that in mind if you already haven’t prepared for it.
Thank you for continuing your Derby Rankings again this year. There is no place like this to get so much valuable insight.
With Pool #4 of the KY Derby Futures open for bets I find it perplexing that the PP’s
are not available. I have tried the Brisent site where they claim to have them but when clicking on get them here nothing happens. Has anybody here had success getting them?
Thanks for the tip. I agree about the PPs Usually a friend sends me the DRF PPs and of course nothing on the Derby website. CD wants you to bet. They just dont want you to win.
Jonathan’s Way is scratched from the Risen Star…
Bill we will have to reformulate our bets there…!
Yes, we will Nelson.
I’ll use a different format, keying Built and East Avenue on top, in the first two slots, with American Promise, Vassimo, Septarian, Render Judgment and Vamos Carlitos underneath in the 3rd and 4th slots.
That is: 4,9/ 4,9/ 1,3,7,10,12/ 1,3,7,10,12 ($1.00 superfecta p/w wager, cost: $40.00).
In addition, I’ll flip that over, which will be as follows.
1,3,7,10,12/ 4,9/ 4,9/ 1,3,7,10,12 (same cost, $40.00)
Good luck, Nelson.
I will do the same but instead of Vamos Carlitos I am betting on Giocoso.
The angle of turf-to-dirt has been panning out lately and Desormeaux has already caused an earthquake with (135-to-1) I’ve Struck a Nerve in 2013. On top of that, Not This Time has Epicenter as a winner of the Risen Star already… and the sire numbers on the mud are encouraging as well (20% winnings). I am excluding Magnitude due to his PP 13…
The flip is a great idea too…! If any of the longshots happens to win the pay out will be in the thousand…
Good luck in all your bets Bill!
Nelson
I noticed Giocoso worked 6 furlongs in 1:11.80, on dirt, on 2-1-25 and 4f in 49.00 flat on 2-8-25. As you mentioned, the turf-to-dirt panning out, could be up just what the doctor ordered for Giocoso. You just talked me into adding him to my superfecta p/w wager, which will kick it up to $60.00. My revised superfecta p/w will be as follows.
4,9/ 4,9/ 1,3,7,8,10,12/ 1,3,7,8,10,12.
In addition, I’ll flip that over, like I mentioned previously.
1,3,7,8,10,12/ 4,9/ 4,9/ 1,3,7,8,10,12. Same cost, $60.00.
I got a good feeling about your flipped super…!
I hope you’re right, Nelson.
Kevin Kerstein posted on X that Jonathan’S Way is being scratched because of an unsatisfactory blood count
The winner of the Risen Star Stakes/Louisiana Derby Trial Stakes has a very poor record of going on to win the Kentucky Derby..
Of the 50 odd runnings of this prep there has only been one winner to go on and take the roses but then only by disqualification of the horse that was first past the post. Mandaloun is the only colt to win the Risen Star and the Kentucky Derby.
Even before the race is run, one can be fairly confident in saying ‘I didn’t see the winner of the Kentucky Derby today’. Ha ha
Over the last four years only Mandaloun went on to win the Derby and others like Hot Rod Charlie, Epicenter, Angel of Empire, Sierra Leone and Catching Freedom has done pretty well though.
I just hope East Avenue breaks cleanly in the Risen Star… if a young horse ends up eating sand trying to fly out of the gate it is not farfetched imagining that he will be at least wary of the same thing happening under the same kind of pressure…
It is amazing how each and every horse has different questions to answer… for East Avenue the talent is there but I need to confirm he is the right mindset to be competitive again… we shall see!
Nelson, I was just wondering how important a win for East Avenue would be and then, after going through all the previous runnings of this race, perhaps not winning is a better result after all.
Nonetheless, I understand your train of thought.
Provocative information!
Those races have provided 2nd and 3rd place finishers. That’s flirting with a 1st place finish. Ease Avenue is considered a special colt.
Yes Counter Point, nothing is proven, until it’s proven.
David’s,
I have pointed this fact out in previous years that only 2 previous Louisiana Derby winners have gone on to be “TRUE” Kentucky Derby winners….. Grindstone and Black Gold. Several have finished 2nd and 3rd but only 2 have won. Will this year be the exception??? Only the first Saturday in May will give us that answer but I will probably bet against it.
Yes, Downthestretch, I know the Louisiana Derby hasn’t been a well of success forever really. I remember as a young kid being told that the Fair Grounds’ stretch was so long that it complimented Churchill Downs’ stretch thus providing the perfect prep to win the Kentucky Derby but it never happened.
This year I’ve been going over the history of each prep race before the race to see when, and if, there was a last time winner of that prep who went on to win the roses. I realize that many placed runners might have gone on to win the Derby but in this instance I’m just tracing the previous steps and where this year’s Derby winner trod, so to speak.
I use many approaches in my wagering decision. The upcoming Risen Star is likely to be won by East Avenue should the Godolphin colt bring his A Game. I am not concerned about the time between starts.
An exacta is where money could be made if the like of Built and Jonnatan Way can be bumped from 2nd.
The risen Star has been dominated by winner form the 3 major stallion lines i.e., Mr. Prospector, Norhtern Dancer &A P Indy. But occasionally one of the dormant stallion line gets in the Mix.
In 1998 the RS was won by Comic Strip. He was sired by Red Ransom who was a son of Roberto. That was the last time the Roberto stallion line provided a winner. there are 2 Risen Star entrants that trace back to Roberto. this line is overdue to be featured.
Render Judgement (Blame) and hunk of Gold (Preservationist). Neither is likely to defeat East Avenue, but 2nd is a possibility. If 2nd is a possibility first cannot be ruled out. Why? It’s t a horse race and event plagued with glorious uncertainties.
I will be using both colts with 3 others in my wager with hope that one can influence a lucrative ROI. Yes! The Audacity of Hope.
Matthew, and any others who are interested, James McDonald is going to ride Switzerland in the Group 1, Black Caviar Lightning Stakes at Flemington on Saturday. McDonald has bypassed a good card at Randwick because Chris Waller wants him in Melbourne.
If you want to see how fast the Australian turf sprints can travel the Lightning Stakes is usually electrifying speed.
The Black Caviar will be at 10:15 pm Friday in my time zone.
Switzerland seems to be in his best form ever after a scintillanting win in the Coolmore Stud Stakes (1200 meters).
Godolphin’s Traffic Warde could redeem himself after a disappointing run as the second choice (4/1) in that Stakes on November 1st with Growing Empire as the 2-to-1 favorite. The latter will have to set the tempo to turn the tables on Switzerland this time at 5 furlongs…
Interesting race that promises to present an electrifying finish …!
Nelson, we were lucky there was some good heavy rain here last night and rain today so the track should be good but not hard like cement which has often been the case around this time of year at Flemington.
The weather has dropped from over a parched 100 on Thursday to 60 maximum today, with rain.
I agree with you, Nelson. Switzerland looks the goods but I fancy Traffic Warden for an upset and Growing Empire as the one to fill third. Good luck. Enjoy the races. I was thinking of going but the winter weather and rain has stopped that idea. I can watch it live at home.
Nelson, Skybird flew home when it counted. Exciting plus+
Thanks, David’s I will be focused on Flemington, tonight—that’s a cool name, for a racehorse, “Focused On Flemington “!..
Actually, Matthew, that’s pretty good. I even checked to see if the name has been used before. No, you’re the first. You don’t need AI, after all. Ha ha Good luck.
Absolute boil over here in the Lightning Stakes, Skybird runs away with it…
Risen Star Stakes: I’ll key Built on top, with American Promise, Jonathan’s Way, Vassimo and East Avenue underneath in a $2.00 superfecta p/w wager.
That is: 9/ 1,2,3,4/ 1,2,3,4/ 1,2,3,4
Sunland Park Derby: I’ll key Getaway Car on top, with Take Charge Tom, McKinzie Street, Touchy and Caldera underneath in a $2.00 superfecta p/w wager.
That is: 4/ 6,7,8,9/ 6,7,8,9/ 6,7,8,9
On a side note, American Promise appears to be a live longshot at 12-1.
Just for the hell of it, I’ll place a $10.00 WPS wager on this Justify colt.
Safe trips to all.
I enquired if there was no love for Multiverse who was excluded from your planned wager for race #8 (MSW) at GP on Feb 8th.
You dismissed the colt because he is gelding. Not a good reason for dismissal. The colt resume reflected a 2nd place finish to Tappan Street who subsequently finished 2nd in the Holy Bull. Most handicappers would have considered that a valid reason to include him in their wagers. However, your decision to exclude has to be respected.
The longshot in your Risen Star wager is Vassimo, a last out AOC winner. From my perspective he isn’t fast enough to hit the board. But he could prove me wrong.
I like Render Judgement and Giocoso as longshots. Chunk Of Gold is also interesting.
Giocoso has the most appealing resume of the 3. He has finished ahead of the following:
Innovator – 3rd Lecomte
Sandman- 2nd Southwest
Magnitude- 2nd Gun Runner
Minaret Station -1st Bourbon G2 (turf)
He is a turf type but his action on dirt is not that of a turf horse. Revisit the 3 to see if there is anything you might have missed.
NB: never change an intended wager. Just make an additional wager as a backup. Obviously, funds permitting.
In the Holy Bull Stakes I cashed with my superfecta boxing with the four fastest horses … the ROI was a not to shabby 10.56 … it was an easy call in a field of seven.
We are in agreement about the chances of Built and American Promise. The latter will be favored if the track becomes sloppy (remember Innovator …) and Built has already run very well on the sloppy footing at Fair Grounds… which is a great advantage.
I was about to fix a super box in the Risen Star Stakes with the fastest horses (i.e. boxing East Avenue, Built, Jonathan’s Way and American Promise); however, in a field of 13 on a sloppy track (most likely) the probabilities of a longshot sneaking into the money is greater.
So, I will use the following superfecta formula:
4-East Avenue/9-Built
4-East Avenue/9-Built/2-Jonathan’s Way
9-Built/2-Jonthan’s way/3-Vassimo/7-Septarian/
2-Jonathan’s Way/3-Vassimo/7-Septarian/10-Render Judgement/13-Magnitude
BTW if Jonathan’s Way wins the Risen Star he would be the first Iroquous winner to do so in 41 years …
There might be one or two scratches so we will have to revisit our bets before the race…
McKinzie Street scratched.
Early sizing up the Risen Star and looking at an EXACTA BOX. In no particular order.
So far going with:
East Avenue, Built, and Vamos Carlitos.
Still may add to this or might just stay. Looking for a “lively pace”. Weather and track condition will dictate what I finally do.
I will not Render Judgement.
Hi Lynda
Thank you for providing your thoughts on a few of your top Derby prospects.
You and Steve are on the same page with East Avenue, which is understandable.
Obviously, you can draw a line though his BC Juvenile performance and refer back to his impressive win in the Breeders’ Futurity. If he can replicate that performance, in the Risen Star, he’ll be hard to beat. You mentioned Septarian, which got my attention. With Flavien Prat in the saddle, he appears to be a live longshot, at 12-1.
From my perspective, Built checks a lot of boxes, and with the chance of rain on Saturday, I like his chances to hit the wire first in the Risen Star.
Good luck, Lynda.
Thank you Bill and good luck to you as well!
What has attracted you to Septarian?
The MMM winner and runner up were last out MSW winners. Septarian undefeated record was better as he was last out AOC winner
My conclusion is as follows- If he was unable to get close to tiring last out MSW winner in the MMM. He has no chance of hitting the board against stakes winners and staked placed opponents?
But I am opened to be convinced otherwise
Sectarian has three progressively better works, which can (sometimes) suggest he is doing well….only cost $1700 as a yearling, and began at Charles Town and Laurel, bit something has attracted Prat, so maybe he IS doing well! Maybe an exact with East Avenue, I’m not overly excited about the rest of the field….
Good luck for successful surgery! You’re the best!
Thanks Judi.
I am puzzled by the retention of Keep it Easy in the rankings. What has he done to be deserving of a ranking?
Steve,
You are a historian, and you might find the cold facts below useful.
In 2018 the Dale Roman trained Dennis’ Moment won a 7F MSW in 1:21.95 by 19 1/4L. He followed up with an easy win in the Iroquois. The sky was the limit for the brilliant colt.
He emerged as the 1/5 favorite in the BCJ and finished last. In 11 subsequent starts he was only able to win an AOC by mere 3/4l.
in 2019 the dale Roman trainer Sitting On Go was an easy debut winner of a MSW at Ellis Park, He followed up with an explosive win in the Iroquois stopping the clock in a quick 1:35 flat.
In the colt’s next 7 starts, he finished 9th; 6th; 6th; 7th; 6th; 5th 7th. There is something seriously wrong with Roman’s program. His impressive winner seems to go MIA repeatedly have all flattered to deceive.
Poster has won a graded stake and finished a fast-closing 3rd in another. He has earned his place in the rankings. A MSW winner from the barn of Dale Roman is high risk for projection given the history provided above.
The Sam Davis and Tampa Bay Derby are two KD Preps that regularly produce fast times and stake records
SAM DAVIS
2025 – John Hancock —- 1:42.27 (NSR) Likely/Pending
2022 – Classic causeway – 1:42.80 – 11th KD
2020 – Sole Volante —— 1:42.60 – 11th KD
2019 – Well Defined ——- 1:42.70 – DNS
2018 – Flameaway ———-1:42.44 (NSR) – 13th KD
2017 – McCraken ————1:42.45 (NSR) – 8th KD
TAMPA BAY DERBY
2020- King Guillermo – 1:42.63 -DNS
2019 – Tacitus ————-1;41.90 – Promoted 3rd in KD
2017 – Tapwrit ———— 1:42.36 – 6th KD
2016 – Destine ———— 1:42.82 – 6th KD
Tacitus and Tapwrit were not particularly fast horses but both displayed speed at Tampa Bay.
Steve act not to rush John Hancock into the rankings despite his NSR is the Davis understandable given the history of fast time recorded by even slow horses.
Counter Point, what you seem to have missed is that Tapwrit won the Belmont Stakes, while Tacitus and Destin missed on winning the Belmont Stakes by a whisker. Tacitus should have won the Belmont apart from a poor ride.
John Hancock has a lot more speed than the above and zero chance of winning the Belmont Stakes with that pedigree.
Steve, thanks again for keeping the Derby Trail as fascinating as ever even when there isn’t a great deal of action going on. Funnily enough the colts I prefer at this stage are all in your “Knocking on the Door” section. Call me a doubting Thomas but until your ‘elite dozen’ do something special on the track there is nothing there to be fearful of.
John Hancock was extremely impressive in the Sam F. Davis Stakes but two more preps and an attempt at the Preakness Stakes, instead of the Kentucky Derby, seems a safer course of action. This won’t happen but everyone is entitled to their opinion.
The Hyacinth Stakes at the Tokyo racetrack on February 23 is worth having a look at to see if Japan has some viable contenders for the Derby this year. The Rebel Stakes on February 22 at Oaklawn Park is the prep that peaks my interest the most thus far so that is something to look forward to.
Tonight, here in Melbourne, we are finally expecting a cold front to thunder in and expel this debilitating heat wave which has encased the city for the past week. Last night the minimum temperature was 77 while we are expecting another over 100 maximum again today.
Alas, the fierce chill winds from Antarctica quite often instigate bushfires around the state in their wake. Nothing is gratis these days. Summer has become a word of regret and fear. Fingers crossed the damage and destruction is only minor.
Thanks Steve, your weekly missal helps you get through the week relatively unscathed.
“Vassimo tests positive for betamethasone”
Will run in the Risen Star
That’s funny
Per Bill Mott, Sovereignty has been confirmed for the Fountain of Youth, on March 1st.
He stated, “the timing is good, I’m not sure the configuration of that race is in his best interest, but we need to get a race in him”. He went on to state, “if you’re on the outside, you’re at a disadvantage, and the short stretch is a disadvantage with his running style”.
That said, I believe the River Thames’ presser running style bodes well for the FOY, his home track. Undefeated in two starts, he pressed the pace and drew off in the stretch with little effort. He could be the top 3yr. old in the Todd Pletcher barn, and his best hope of securing another Derby winner.
River Thames will be my top pick in the FOY.
Let me immediately state that this response is no way meant to offend you. Consequently, there is no need for you to default in that direction.
You made a great call on Hypnus ahead of his MSW win at FG over Sloppy (Sealed) and demanding surface. The Into Mischief colt not only had the demanding surface to deal with, but also the distance of 8 1/2F that is rare for a dirt debut in the USA. He won with the authority of a seasoned veteran and was full of energy on his way back to the winner’s enclosure.
I consider Hypnus’ debut to be significantly more impressive than that of River Thames.. What are the cold facts that have convinced you the TP colt is a better prospect?
On the subject of TP. His 64 and 2 record ahead of the 2024 KD didn’t stop Steve from assigning the mighty F the #1 ranking. I am some time disappointed that as a historian Steve fails to acknowledge that there is history and there are TG numbers that so significantly influences his ranking decisions. Which should be given more weight has to be considered.
You have no chosen to ignore TP’s 65 and 2 record and is now in support of one of his prospects in a Derby class loaded with more talent than has been seen in a very long time. When a trainer’s record which reflect who he is. As difficult as it might be. Your burden is to be guided by it
If you are of the opinion that I am too guided by history. Look no further than the 2024 KD. Bill Mott’s Resilience was not considered in the same league as the might F. And in fact, he isn’t in his league. However, he finished 6th by 7 3/4L, whereas the mighty F finished 15th by 24 1/2L. Trainers and their respective program matters.
On the back of Sovereignty’s Street Sense performance. The colt is probably one of Bill Mott’s best KD prospect ever. One has to question a decision to switch from an impressive, graded stakes winner to last our AOC winner whose best opponent was a turf to dirt entrant. If Sovereignty hasn’t been adversely impacted by his set back. He should be able to overcome the configuration of the GP oval.
A reproduction of his Street Sense performance should be good enough for Sovereignty to gather additional KD points. I cannot envisage River Thame and many others being able to repel Sovereignty’s burst when the real running commences on, the 1st Saturday in May.
Counter Point, do you ever have bad days?
Unless you are a perfect being….then consider that these TBs are not machines and they too have bad days. If the mighty F was as bad as you are trying to portray….well, his record after the KD speaks for itself.
Sometimes you try extremely hard to make a case, yet, you fail to look at the big bright portrait.
Come on!
I do have bad days!
His performance in the KD was consistent with that of his previous barn mates that contested the KD.
My focus wasn’t on the Mighty F but rather his trainers record with absolutely doesn’t inspire confidence. His program is responsible for his overall results in the big race.
You might not have noticed that some of TPs longtime client have given Cox horses that would have normally been given to him. John Hancock and Patch Adams are examples.
TP’s KD horses seem to choose the 1st Saturday in May to have their bad days.
What a coincidence!
Glad to know that you breath the same air as the rest of us mortals.
Regarding the Might F trainer’s KD record, it’s no secret that he has a abysmal record in said race.
I am not on the TP bandwagon for this year’s big dance. However, even a blind squirrel finds a nut every now and then.
Hey Counter Point
Just to be clear, Sovereignty is #2 on my Derby Watch List. I just have a gut feeling on River Thames being a major player in this year’s Derby. With both colts headed to the Fountain of Youth, the outcome should provide the answer as to which is the better colt moving forward to the Florida Derby. Several past Kentucky Derby winners have used the Florida Derby as their final prep for the KD, I’m sure you’re aware of that.
You mentioned Hypnus’ impressive maiden performance over the Fair Grounds track. The last time I checked. Hypnus was listed at 80-1 on the KD Futures Pool #4. Get those odds while you can Counter Point.
Steve, I really enjoy reading your horse Derby analysis, especially the Pedigree information. You are so thorough with your updated information. Thank you very much.
I appreciate it Eugene. Thank you very much
Steve, I’m with others here and wish you successful cataract surgeries. I remember another great sportwriter, Jim Murray, of the Los Angeles Times penning an article called “Losing An Old Friend” decades ago about Mr. Murray losing his much of his vision but still continued to write. His ‘Old Friend’ was his eye.
Steve, you’ve been our friend and we sure don’t want to lose you.
Thanks John. I dont want to lose you either
Innovator – 3rd Lecomte
Maximum Promise – 5th Lecomte
Minaret Station – 1st Castle & Key Bourbon Stakes
Sandman – 3rd Street Sense; 2nd Southwest
Magnitude – 2nd Gun Runner
Giocoso has either defeated or finished ahead of the horses above. He made his debut in June 2024 and has recorded a start every month thereafter up to November.
He has been off for a little over 3 months and has been working steadily for his return. Both his wins have been on turf. His soul routing effort on dirt resulted in 3rd place finish in the Iroquois.
The 9F of the Risen Start shouldn’t be a challenge for this colt. If he can run back to his 6F in 1:11.80 breezing from the gate work. He must be a board contender despite not being highlighted in Week #3.
Good two-year-old foundation, but just a maiden and allowance win so far; hasn’t beat anyone of note. I think he is a stakes horse of maybe grade 3 abilities at best. Should be able to tell more after the Risen.
Counterpoint won the 1948 Belmont, is he your namesake?
So, his 3rd in the Iroquois doesn’t count.
Sandman is highly regarded in some quarters. Innovator game Barnes all he could handle at CD Minaret Station won the G2 Bourbon.
The Curlin-Beholder colt (mentioned below) has been named Representing.
Laurel River scratched from Saudi Cup. Slight injury during training, will target the Dubai Cup.
Davids, a Wooten Basett will now race in the Saudi Cup. Should be interesting to see how he does with his turf pedigree. Sorry, did not catch his name.
Representing?!?!? Really !!! Don’t like it …. As royally bred as this colt is and Zedan is from Saudi Arabia I would have named him……. “Behold the King” !!!
A bit unusual I think.
The Jockey Club announced yesterday that they have a new app that is AI driven to generate up to ten names. Purpose is to offer assistance in coming up with names based on the foal’s pedigree.
As I understand it the owner of Godolphin gives final approval on all the names of his horses.
Mr Ramsey used to ask fans to name the Kitten’s Joy foals. He would list the dam’s dam and ask for suggestions. Hevused many of them.
In some cultures it is not acceptable to give horses human names and it is considered to be bad luck to change a name.
Native Americans gave names based on some aspect of the horse like the color or how fast they were or what time of day the horse was born, moon phases etc.
I agree with not giving horses human names, as they do so much in the UK. I also think it shouldn’t be necessary to use AI to name horses and it’s not a requirement to name them based on names in their pedigree.
Just certain cultures DP.
I do not have a problem with human names, most of my menagerie have them.
I agree with you, Discopartner. Creativity is a muscle–use it or lose it. Why encourage people to mindlessly hand over a creative task to a machine?
I think many of us enjoy the good old days of owners slipping something risque through on the stodgy Jockey Club. Or creating something to torture race callers.
LOL
If I were an owner, I would consider naming horses one of the great joys of the sport. I know it can be difficult to get names approved, but thinking them up would be so much fun. There are lots of names that would have personal significance that computers could never come up with–local place names, unusual nicknames of people and pets, phrases from favorite poems, the list goes on and on. I’d like to see some of the computer-generated names–I bet they wouldn’t be good at all.
And, Steve, I join everyone else in wishing you a very successful surgery and a quick recovery. Best wishes.
I always enjoyed coming up with names for Ramsey Farm foals by Kitten’s Joy.
Also like the names Coolmore comes up with.
One of my Arabian mares is named Divine Easter Lily. Her sire was Divine Prophecy, she was born on Good Friday and is a gray. The name fits her!
That’s a lovely name, Lynda. I also like the short one-word names from Claiborne, and Darby Dan always had imaginative names. I don’t like the ones from Klaravich.
Or maybe, Baffeling. 🙂
Behold the King is a great name, Downthestretch. The colt could have been proud of that one.
Hi Lynda
Thank you for providing the name of the Curlin/Beholder colt.
Representing the royal bloodlines flowing in his veins, no doubt.
Now, that we can access his workouts, on the Equibase data base, it will be much easier to track his progress. I would think BB will point Representing to a MSW race in the near future.
Nice try Bill but I still think the name isssssssssssss…………..tooooooo……..Ordinary !!!!!
I agree, Downthestretch.
Based on his breeding, and as a reflection of sire and dam, I would think “Curl and Hold would have been a more suitable name, IMO.
Obviously, my opinion means nothing to the Zadan Racing Team, it’s their colt. They certainly have the right to choose whatever name the want.
I like that name Bill.
Thanks Lynda.
BTW, at this point on the Derby trail, any thoughts on your top Derby prospect would be greatly appreciated.
Thanks, Lynda.
Bill, I have a very short list so far.
East Avenue, Burnham Square, Coal Battle.
And I am interested in how Septarian does in the Risen Star.
Wait and see mode I guess.
Just does not seem to be a lot of excitement so far in the groups I am in or follow in for any particular horse. Now that the 50 point races have started I expect that change.
Have not really sorted out Baffert’s entries yet.
Lot of conversation out there about the decoupling bill in Florida which is worrisome to say the least.
And of course, the results of the Hyacinth next week.
I think a lot of us are somewhat anxiously awaiting his first race. I know I am.
Does Representing pre-race profile reminds you of a $3.6M Curlin colt out of a Bernardini mare?
Counter Point, if you referring to Cezanne, that was tragic.
As horses age, we can expect some infirmity that results in a sad end.
It is the young ones that hurt the most.
So no and hopefully Representing will not meet the same fate.
Lynda, I’d say it’s probably Wootton’sun. It’s a bit ambitious attempting the Saudi Cup but Wootton’sun did win on dirt at Riyadh on January 13, 2024 in the King Saudi Cup. He’s a gelding and runs very infrequently.
That is his name, Wootton’sun. Thanks
Lynda, speaking of Wootton Bassett, there is a very promising colt, Twain, who is one of the favorites for the 2,000 Guineas and Epsom Derby. Definitely, one to keep your eye on.
I know you like Wootton Bassett, as do I.
Thanks!
Did you see Sodashi’s foal by Equinox?
No, Lynda, how exciting. How striking is he or she? I searched but couldn’t find a single photo.
I saw the video on X.
World Horse Racing has it.
She is very striking in my opinion.
Those long legs and balanced conformation. Very spunky.
Same color as Equinox (very dark, almost black) and only white is a star).
Sodashi seems to be a loving Mom.
I so enjoy seeing photos and videos of the foal crops each year.
Thanks Lynda, The Blood-Horse website has a lovely photo and an article. The star on the foal is quite unique almost like a question mark.
Best of luck with the procedures, Steve! My mom had both eyes done last year, and it really improved her life. We are a lot less worried about her driving, too!
Thanks for your hard work on the ever-tricky Derby Dozen!
First off, Steve, having cataract surgery in 2016 was quite possibly the best thing ever for me. My vision went from not being able to see the Big E on the eye chart to 20/20. Dude, it was no biggie and I am the biggest weenie of all time when it comes to surgery. Praying for a great outcome.
Secondly, as I reside in Missouri, I love the Missouri connection to Citizen Bull. I think he just became my Derby horse. Thank you for the pedigree information. I am a nerd when it comes to that stuff.
Hi Steve,
Cataracts seem to be genetic in my Mom’s family.
So far I have not had a problem, knock on wood.
My husband had the surgery a couple of years ago. The technique they use now is far superior to the procedure my Mom had.
He sailed through it. Yes the drops are aggravating but necessary.
I actually like the Derby Dozan format better.
Thanks and I hope your surgery is a 100 percent success.
Steve
Have you heard any rumblings as to when Cornucopian will debut for Bob Baffert?
Also, there seems to be a lot of mystery surrounding the colt sired by Curlin, out of Beholder, by Henny Hughes. He sold for $4 million to Amr Zedan back in 2023 but has yet to be named, as far as I know. At the 2023 auction, he was listed as Hip 165.
Any information on this royally bred Curlin colt would be appreciated.
Thanks, Steve.
Hey Bill,
The Curlin / Beholder colt has been working out pretty regularly for Baffert at Santa Anita. His latest workout was this past Sunday 2/9/25. None of his workouts that I have seen been lights out (at least by Baffert standards). If you go to Santa Anita’s website at the top on the left side is a column titled “Racing” run your mouse over it until a drop down occurs. It will state ” Racing Information” one of the choices is “workouts”. Click on it and another screen opens and Workout Calendar opens. Click on February 9. Look at the 5 furlong works and he is identified as … %Beholder. You will also see under 4 furlongs “Nysos” had a work that day.
“Barnes” worked out today February 11 … 5 furlongs … 58.80.
Last I heard (couple of weeks ago) Baffert said it will be a while before he runs. What that means only he knows.
Hope this helps.
Yes, Downie, according to the work tab (NOW I know where to find those!) Barnes recorded a bullet work, the fastest of the day at the distance. Journalism, Rodriquez, Miramahdi, and Romanesque have also recorded excellent works in the last couple of days.
Glad to help.. It will be interesting to see what Baffert’s strategy will be with Barnes. Will he skip the Rebel and stay at SA for the San Felipe and then train CB to SA Derby and ship Barnes to Oaklawn for the Derby there and ship to Churchill from there if he qualifies. Maybe send Romanesques And Rodriguez to Rebel??? I am sure the wheels are turning
“Representing”….
(His name)..
Thanks for the reply, Downthestretch
Now that we know the name of the Curlin/Beholder colt, (Representing), it will be much easier to track his progress on the Equibase database.
Many thanks on your insightful posts.
Thanks to everyone for your well wishes. The first cataract surgery isn’t until March 10 so a few more Rankings before then and then a slow week after that.
Best Wishes, Mr. Haskin!
Three Risen Star entrants were mentioned in the KOTD. Vassimo is the one with which I am least familiar. After reviewing the videos of his two starts he appears to be a bit on the slow side.
When the 1Turn mile at GP is completed in 1:39+, it is hardly likely that the winner is a Derby prospect is in the making. The colt was assigned an Equibase figure of 67 for its debut win. That figure improved to 83 in his 1 mile 40 yards AOC win at Tampa Bay. His best opponent in that race emerged as the unknown Lastabitlonger.
TP is renowned for springing upsets with less than accomplished race entrants. But I cannot envisage that even with a ton TP’s High Octane, this colt can hit the board. But stranger things have occurred with his horses.
Kenneth Mc Peek won the 2024 KD with the stamina challenged Mystik Dan. His Reder Judgement whose sire Blame (BCC) and dam sire Commissioner (2nd Belmont) signals he is bed to run all day, has not been highlighted any of the three Derby Ranking.
On debut this colt finished 2nd by 21/2L to Built at Keeneland in a 7F MSW @40/1, closing from 9L off the pace. The internal fractions were 21.93; 45.26; 1:10.86. The fractions in Vissimo’s two races were nowhere near as fast. He was assigned an Equibase figure of 85 for his debut compared to 67 assigned to Vissimo for his debut.
He finished 5th in his stakes debut in the Kentucky Jockey Club. Ahead of him were the #6 ranked First Resort and KOTD mentions – Jonathan’s Way and Tiztaztic’
Render Judgement stumbled badly at the start of the Gun Runner similar to ML favorite East Avenue in the BCJ. After finishing 21/2L behind Built on debut over 7F. He was blown away by him over the more favorable 8 1/2F distance. That was some 6 weeks ago.
If slow Vissimo is considered to be in with a shot. Certainly, the McPeek entrant possess better credentials and equally or more worthy of a highlight.
The three upcoming Derby prep races should provide a clearer picture on several top prospects moving forward on the Derby trail.
Risen Star (Feb. 15th): East Avenue, Jonathan’s Way, Vassimo and Built appear to be the top four in a field of 13. East Avenue and Jonathan’s Way have not raced since last November and might need this race to set them up for the Louisiana Derby.
For that reason, I’ll go with Built as the likely winner of the Risen Star.
Rebel Stakes, (Feb. 22nd) If in fact Baffert ships Barnes to Oaklawn Park for the Rebel, he’ll likely be the morning line favorite. Speed King held off the fast-closing Sandman in the Southwest, so both should take a lot of money in the betting. From my perspective, Coal Battle has the best chance of upsetting Barnes.
That said, I’ll go with Baffert’s Into Mischief colt, Barnes as the likely winner of the Rebel.
Fountain of Youth Stakes, (March 1st). With Sovereignty listed as a “possible” in the FOY, I’m looking forward to seeing if he can replicate his Street Sense performance.
I’m a sucker for deep closers, Sovereignty certainly fits the description as a deep closer.
Sovereignty was at the top of my Derby Watch List for several months, but based on how River Thames performed last out, in that one-mile AOC race, at GP, on Feb. 1st, I moved him on top of Sovereignty. Obviously, Sovereignty checks a lot of boxes, but River Thames does as well. As much as I like the numerous Into Mischief colts on the Derby trail, the fact that their sire line tracks back to Northern Dancer is somewhat of a question mark. River Thames sire line leads directly to Mr. Prospector, which has produced more Derby winners than the Northern Dancer sire line.
The gelding Burnham Square, listed as a probable in the FOY, is from the Mr. Prospector line. Gate to Wire, listed as a possible, is from the Mr. Prospector line as well.
I’ll probably be making a big mistake by taking River Thames over Sovereignty in the FOY, but that’s the way I see it.
Might be making a bigger mistake by overlooking Burnham Square….. JMO !!!
Hi Downthestretch.
You could be right, he certainly looked impressive in the Holy Bull, chasing down Tappan Street for the win. He’s bred from the Mr. Prospector/Northern Dancer cross, which is a major plus, IMO.
If Burnham Square makes the Kentucky Derby gate, the fact that he’s a gelding could inhibit his chances of being a major contender in the race, IMO.
Good luck, Downthestretch.
Steve,
First of all like everyone else on this site I am a wishin’ and hopin’ for you too have a successful cataract eye surgery and no complications afterwards.
We are now in the waiting game phase for the next 3 weeks in which we hope after those races in the next 3 weeks will hopefully clear up the pre derby picture better. Hopefully it doesn’t leave us scratching our heads more. I see you are a little more optimistic about POSTER than I am. We will see how he progresses in the future. Looks like 70% chance of rain for the Risen Star. We will see if this will either Enhance or compromise East Avenue chances. Built may scratch if it rains. One other note I saw that “Just Steel” had a six furlong workout the other day. Glad he is back on the workout tab.
Again Good Luck Steve and have a GREAT week !!!
Steve, wishing you all the best on your cataract surgery. I was so tickled that you mentioned how John Hancock fought his rider after the wire as I noticed it too. I was quite impressed that he was so keen to keep going after just having set a stakes record!
On a different topic, I see that the Jockey Club is introducing some sort of AI tool that will generate possible horse names, with the goal being “to help owners find creative names for their horses.” Ugh. I will exercise my own creativity, thank you. I don’t need a machine to do it for me.
For the sake of precision, the exact quote was [to] “help owners find creative names to submit for their horses.”
Hear is to your health, Steve! Thank you for your write ups. Deeply appreciate each weeks writings. Crazy question, any chance to add the horses picture to their name? I do love your other pictures in other writings…
Two quick updates….
According to the DRF Colloquial is out of the Triple Crown races via his owners and will be pointed towards shorter races later this year.
According to another website Barnes worked this morning in a quick 58.4 at Santa Anita.
I have enjoyed reading your articles for many decades with your excellent story telling, pedigree analysis, and history of the sport. I played Romanesque fairly heavily in the January derby futures. I seem like the only person who likes him. Out of an Alphabet soup mare, 2nd dam out of Personal Flag with Sea-Bird, Arts and Letters, Private Account, Prince John sprinkled on the bottom of his pedigree, seems to scream long distance races.
I like him the best of the BB contingent.
Romanesque is the largest if the Bob Brigade…..
Good luck with the cataract surgery, Steve. I had it back in 2020 and I haven’t regretted it for a minute. I wore glasses since I was 9, and now because I had the laser procedure, I don’t need glasses anymore, except to read. The only thing I didn’t like was all the eyedrops, but that’s no big deal. Best wishes for a speedy recovery.
:49.70….:48.60…..:48.15 …lovely work pattern, for Filoso—-as he is prepared, for a return—I like a big frame, this guy has that!
Hi Steve… I join the chorus of voices wishing you the best for your upcoming eye correction.
If You are able to see (now) what we can not discern even with the biggest binoculars imagine how brighter and colorful your world and work would be afer the surgery.
You will be the Monet of the Turf Writers…!
Lol. Just remember you have to stand far back from a Monet to appreciate it. I might be more Inclined to resemble one of my 7 year old grandson’s watercolors
Even more so with Seurat, Steve. Ha ha Good luck with your eye surgery. Everyone says after they’ve had the surgery they wish they had down it years ago. Mind you, it’s always easy when you’re not the person having the surgery. You’ll be fine.
I like your list and there are a lot of colts out there. I am curious as to why folks are so quick to write off Getaway Car . The colts bloodline suggests he will be better this yr than last and was a game second in the Los Alamitos showing he has not regressed and has every opportunity to improve. I also can’t understand why Coal Battle isnt being given a little more credit, he ran lights out last month and The springboard mile is proving to have produced some nice colts from last yrs race.
His trainer is writing him off by running him in the Saudi Derby and saying he’s keeping him one turn for now. As for Coal Battle he was ranked last week and you apparently didn’t read the Intro about not seeing your horse mentioned a particular week. He’s running in 2 weeks in the Rebel and will be mentioned next week.
He is not running him in the Saudi Derby, he is running in the two turn Sunland derby.
I just saw that. Baffert changed his mind. originally said Saudi Derby
I was more curious why you didn’t keep him ranked then i was missing his name.
When you go from 20 to 12 you cant keep them all. He is mentioned this week at the end, I thought 5,000 words was sufficient for one week
Hello Mark. Coal Battle has alot of heart.
In week #1 when Treaty Of Rome was ranked at #9 and Poster at #13. I Couldn’t comprehend how he was assigned a raking higher than Poster.
TOR had no noticeable stride extension in the closing stage of the MMM. He was unable to get by a rapidly tiring leader in a 1Turn mile complete in a pedestrian 1:38+.
The 2Turn mile portion of the 9F Remsen was completed in 137+. That is a full second faster than the 1Turn MMM. Poster was resolute to the line.
I have been repeatedly admonished for comparing times at different tracks. The Sam Davis would reveal if Poster’s faster time for a 2Turn mile meant he should finish ahead of TOR.
Poster finished 3rd by 2 3/4L. TOR regressed to 9 of 10 by 36L after being forwardly placed. His stride patter in the closing stages of the MMM was that of turf horse and I am of the opinion that’s where he belongs.
I am of the same mindset regarding Captain Cook ranked at #8 and Poster not making the cut. The mile split in the Remsen was 137+ The miles split in the Whiters was 1:39+. I will again be told not to compare time on different days.
Poster first 2 starts were over 8F on turf. He recorded final times of 1:35+ for both. One of those races his final furlong time was 11.72. it was the fastest furlong of the race. In his dirt his mile split was 1:37+. Did that mean he is 2 seconds slower on dirt?
The mile split in the Sam Davis on a speed favoring surface was 1:35.65. That was 2 seconds faster than the Remsen. Poster should have been 10L away when that mile was completed. But he was not. He was making forward progress passing opponents whilst swinging 5W for a stretch run.
The Godolphin colt was beaten 2 3/4L closing from 9L last. It appears his pair of 1:35+ miles on turf, prepare him to be competitive in the record setting 205 renewal of the Sam Davis. The colt improvement between the Rensen and the Davis is or overshadowed by John Hancock performance. to close from last on that surface carries a significant that shouldn’t be ignored.
Captain Cook finished 6th on debut. Won a 7F MSW in a time that if extrapolated to determine an 8F time. It would be in the range of 1:37+ for a 1Turn mile. That’s the time Poster record for the 2turn mile portion of the Remsen. Captain Cook’s extrapolate time for a 1turn Mile time suggest he wouldn’t be faster than Poster over 9F. His final time in the Wither of 1:51.83 with 2lbs less bears testament to same.
One colt has 4 starts as follows – 8F, 8F, 9F & 8 1/2F. The other colt has 3 starts as follows – 6F, 7F & 9. He is deemed to be more progressive than one that is 2 1/2 months younger, with more accomplishments and whose 4 starts have been at 4 different tracks.
That doesn’t compute!
I have to disagree. A quality closer should run right by two horses who relentlessly duel for a mile. I believe if Poster has a future as a top horse, it will be on the turf. I’ve been wrong before, but time will tell.
Good points and presented well as only you could do. Personally, I prefer the trainer’s (Dutrow’s) approach to training a young horse by first running him in sprints to build his speed and then stretching him out, as opposed to the trainer’s (Harty’s) approach of not running any sprints. I think if Poster gets into the Kentucky Derby, he will find himself speed deprived and unable to match those with a good speed foundation. Just my preference, we will see what happens.
Rick stated last week he doesn’t pay attention to Beyers. Agree with him.
Hey Steve, first of all, let me wish you the best with your cataract surgery. I had it done eight years ago and everything went well. They have perfected the procedure and it’s pretty routine nowadays.
Regarding John Hancock, like many, I was impressed by his performance in the Sam
F. Davis, but, as you say, the track was conducive to speed that day and he had a good trip despite the pressure from Owen Almighty. Still, John Hancock’s heart is what caught my attention. Not sure whether he’ll make it to the Derby though with just one more race before the Derby. Is it me, or are these horses so fragile that they can’t race every four weeks anymore? This issue seems to be getting worse every year.
Thanks Dewey. Actually. My wife had two done recently. John Hancock was very game and he’s obviously a talented horse.
Hi Steve – Let me start by wishing you the best on your upcoming Cataract surgery. I’m looking forward to the San Felipe with Journalism vs. possibly Barnes. I doubt CB will run because he has the points to get in and they could train him up to the SA Derby. Barnes has never gone long and Journalism has, this gives a big advantage to Journalism IMO. Like you said Steve, the Derby FAV could emerge from this race. Excited that I bet Journalism at 52-1 in KDFW2. I’m sure McCarthy will have him primed to fire a big shot.
Thanks Joe. I believe the SA Derby is the plan.
Have Journalism in my futures as well.
Hi Steve,
Regarding the pending cataract surgery, I’ve been thru that even after mine was delayed a year (COVID), its not much of a problem these says. You will be fine.
Most important is the after care, use the eye drops and try to keep the eyes hydrated. Keeping eyes hydrated will help as if not you might see some floaters. Those floaters can be taken care of by laser, but sometimes it does not help. So its important to use the eye drops and like I said keep the eyes hydrated (even a warm damp towel will help a lot).
No worries of the surgery, but we all wish you the best.
Thanks Gary. I already have floaters on top of that. 🙂
Hi Steve,
I know every case is a bit different, but in my case, whenever my eyes are dry (dehydrated) the floaters start, when its well hydrated I don’t have them.
One eye drop my doc. once recommended for a month (2 vials) cost about a total of over $500. Guess what, the same eyedrop manufactured here and exported to Canada, cost $28 each there.
“A lot of people are taking about the spectacular maiden victory by COLLOQUIAL and his outrageous speed figures. He can be addressed more at a future date, but for now he’s only been 6 ½ furlongs, is by Vekoma, and he had an eight-month layoff between his two starts. H’
Well, then how did conclude right after Justify would be the next Derby winner and that not the only one I picked in the las decade or more.
e=mc2
Juatify was by a distance sire and his 2nd start was a 2 turn mile. With over 8 months between his two sprints it’s almost as if he’s had only one race
Thank you, Steve for this insightful article about all the incredible derby hopefuls Its getting really exciting again.
I’m sure your surgery will go very well and you will be back in action. Good luck and I hope the healing Goes well
Facing cataract surgery and you still manage to produce a brilliant Dozen! We are so lucky to have you, Steve. You take care of yourself. My thoughts and prayers go with you for a successful surgery, quick healing, and a return to excellent vision. You sure see the 3 year old picture pretty well.
Thanks Ms B. Yeah it was really getting hard putting all that strain on the eyes.
Steve
As always a really good read . I like Giocoso in the Rebel and Also Keep It Easy amongst a few others. Dale Romans is due and deserves a Derby win . Maybe the new Dale can get it done . He is looking good since he had his surgery.
Speaking of surgery, Good Luck with yours ! If you need any help I am a short ride up 91 to you . Would be more than happy to help you out.
Chris Lane
I appreciate that Chris. Thank you.
Hi Steve
It was good to see the return of the “Derby Dozen” which provides a clearer picture on the top Derby prospects. With respect to John Hancock, his trainer Brad Cox, stated that he will bypass the Tampa Bay Derby, a point to either the Louisiana Derby, Arkansas Derby or the Florida Derby.
You might be a little apprehensive about your upcoming cataract surgery, I know that I was when I went through it about twenty years ago. Before the surgery on my left eye, I would have to cover it up because I would see eight moons when I drove out night and the oncoming headlights were blinding. Then, about three years later, I had surgery on my right eye. With artificial lens implanted in both eyes, I continue to have 20/20 vision in both eyes, at 85 years old.
I’m sure everything will go smoothly for you, it did for me.
Thanks Bill
Steve’s Derby columns are more important than ever, because the horses never actually run. The only goal is to win the derby and get a stud deal. Which is why I am rooting for Burnham Square. He’s a gelding and is being allowed to be a racehorse. And Ian Wilkes seems like one of the good guys.
I agree with you re your ‘under-valued’ stocks; In fact Patch Adams started going down in odds from 33-1 after last race to 20-1 now. I think Built at current 28-1 is a good value, along with Journalism at 30-1. I have Patch at 60-1, but only $25…
Thank you, as usual, Steve, for producing the Derby Rankings. Even in (somewhat) abbreviated form, it’s still something to look forward to each week. Best of luck with your upcoming surgery.
At this early point, I like Barnes and Citizen Bull, but I’m admittedly biased.
Thanks Amy
Steve: Thanks for all you do and good luck with the cataract procedure.
Thank you