2025 Kentucky Derby Rankings – Week 4
With another unexpected result in the books and the shocking no-show of the No. 1-ranked East Avenue we’re still taking potshots at targets that are moving too fast to hit. But one of these days in the next two weeks one of the top-ranked horses who is supposed to win will win and we can get some idea who these 3-year-olds really are and which ones are true Derby horses. ~ Steve Haskin
Derby Rankings: February 17, 2025 – Week 4
By Steve Haskin
1—Journalism (Mike McCarthy, Curlin – Mopotism, by Uncle Mo)
He looks as solid a No. 1 candidate as we can find, at least until we see what he does against Barnes and Rodriguez in the San Felipe. In his last work in 1:00 4/5 it was interesting to see him working inside a tough older horse. Perhaps McCarthy wants to get him more aggressive and competitive against a fast horse like Barnes and not let him get too big an advantage. Looking at his Brisnet figures, they tell us a lot about him. With three career starts he has had a total of nine pace figures (early, middle, and late).What I like most about them is the range between his low, an early pace figure of 84, and his high, a strong late pace figure of 104 to go along with a 101. What all that means is that he doesn’t run slow at any point in a race and still closes well. Also, his speed figures show a steady improvement with each race, from an 84 to 95 to 99, which is similar to the improvement he’s shown on Thoro-Graph. He likely will have to improve again to handle Barnes and whoever else Baffert puts in there, but he’s a big long-striding horse and doesn’t need to win this, just come home strong and pick up points. But a win would solidify his No. 1 ranking.
2—Sovereignty (Bill Mott, Into Mischief – Crowned, by Bernardini)
As we mentioned last week his last work apparently was missed, but Mott told Godolphin he worked a half in :49 3/5 February 7 and went well. This week he did show up on the tab, working a half in :49 2/5. With his scheduled 3-year-old debut set for the March 1 Fountain of Youth, he’s had four works in the last five weeks, which is a good sign after all his missed works, but they have all been :49 and change, so with one work left, you have to wonder how sharp he’ll be off a four-month layoff. That may be the result of Mott having enough confidence in him that he just needs to get a good prep in him, pick up a few points, and then lay it all on the line in his final 100-point prep. Remember, he’s still only won one race so what is most important is how he makes the transition fom 2 to 3 off a long layoff.
3—Citizen Bull (Bob Baffert, Into Mischief – No Joke, by Distorted Humor)
He’ll leave the San Felipe to his stablemates and go straight to the Santa Anita Derby off a two-month layoff. He is such a tank of a horse who packs a lot of power, so you know Baffert is going to let him roll in the mornings, as he does anyway, and he will be plenty fit. When does Baffert not send out a dead-fit horse? He started by working him five furlongs in 1:00 3/5 on Monday.He really had an easy go of it in the Robert Lewis, with his two stablemates just chasing him the entire way, which may account for his Thoro-Graph and Brisnet figures being slower than the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. So we just sit back for a while and watch Baffert rev up the engine. Meanwhile there are two questions everyone will be asking. Can he rate off the pace and, like several of Baffert’s Derby winners, does he have to?
4—Barnes (Bob Baffert, Into Mischief – All American Dream, by American Pharoah)
Baffert put some good bottom into him for the San Felipe with a six furlong drill in 1:12. When you look at how high he is ranked on so many lists and how strong he gets bet in the Future Wager and in Las Vegas you have to wonder if it’s a combination of the trainer, his big pricetag, and his name. Will he live up to all the hype when he stretches out to two turns for the first time? Will Bullard, who he trounced in the San Vicente, make him look even better with a big race in Saturday’s Rebel Stakes or cast some doubt with a poor performance. The bottom line is it’s all a guessing game with him right now. From a visual standpoint and how quickly he matured and became so much more professional in his second start, he could very well be something special. But we won’t really know until he takes on Journalism and even his own stablemate Rodriguez going two turns.
5—First Resort (Eoin Harty, Uncle Mo – Fair Maiden, by Street Boss)
His schedule has him working Monday following his brilliant :59 2/5 drill last week, and we will update that as soon as we get it. He’s been entered in Saturday’s Battaglia at Turfway and we’ll see how he does on the synthetic surface and how much he gets out of the race. having already won the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs. Harty has a number of paths he can try knowing he handles Churchill Downs and has a Grade 2 stakes win at two turns under his belt.We were hoping to use Kentucky Jockey Club runner-up Jonathan’s Way as a good gauge but he was scratched from the Risen Star. Rehashing First Resort’s Thoro-Graph pattern, it is excellent showing constant improvement fom “11 ½ to 10 ½ to 9 then a good jump to a 4 ½ in his first real class test. Considering the possibilities he looks pretty attractive at 46-1 in the Future Wager.
6—Burnham Square (Ian Wilkes, Liam’s Map – Linda, by Scat Daddy)
We will see how legitimate the Holy Bull was when he takes on stiffer competition in the Fountain of Youth, such as Sovereignty, Burrnham Square, Gate to Wire, and Keep it Easy, as well as the undefeated River Thames. The facts are he is unbeaten in his two starts with blinkers, and you have to like his Brisnet pace figures in the Holy Bull of 87, 98, and 100. Again, you want to see a horse who can run a triple-digit late pace figure off a 98 middle pace figure, showing he can keep up a strong pace a long way. And in his Brisnet speed figures he’s made significant improvement with each race – 80, 87, 94, 101, so both his Brisnet and Thoro-Graph numbers are strong. He has a great owner in Janis Whitham, who, between her and her late husband Frank, had top-class stakes winners such as the great Bayakoa and Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Fort Larned. And remember, it was actually Wilkes who was the driving force behind Derby winner Street Sense and was given most of the credit by the then semi-retired Carl Nafzger, who was the trainer of record. Wilkes was also there for Unbridled.
7—Captain Cook (Rick Dutrow, Practical Joke – Pow Wow Wow, by Indian Charlie)
When you can stretch out from seven furlongs to 1 1/8 miles in your third career start and run the fastest Thoro-Graph number of the year, jumping from a “9” to a “6 ¾” to a “2,” there has to be something serious going on. Even his Brisnet progression of 83 to 93 to 100 is impressive. No 3-year-old competing in New York in January and February is going to take center stage, especially when facing questionable competition, so not many people are putting him up there with the top horses even though his speed figures are as good or better than any of them, he’s already proven at 1 1/8 miles, he has shown he can win pressing a :45 1/5 half or a :49 half, and he’s been dominant on fast and sloppy tracks. In short what’s not to like, especially at 31-1?
8—Magnitude (Steve Asmussen, Not This Time –Rockadelic , by Bernardini)
The Risen Star was just your typical 43-1 shots running one-two and the winner getting an insane 108 Beyer winning by 10 lengths kind of race. Oh, yes, that Beyer was 28 points higher than the fastest race he’s ever run. Now what? Going to several sources on the Magnitude team, all I learned was “You know how these horses change this time of year” and “he hated the slop last time out” and “other than East Avenue it was a fairly wide-open race” and “he’s put on weight recently” and “he has always shown a lot and we had a high opinion of him” and “being on the far outside dictated him getting pushed to go to the lead where we wanted him; sometimes a plan actually works.” I will say that he looked very strong and well within himself taking the lead from East Avenue nearing the first turn and seemed to be in complete control down the backstretch. What was also amazing was that this time with him on the lead and being chased by Built it was a 17-length reversal from their one-two finish in the Gun Runner Stakes. To learn why the above comments may help explain some of this, go to Knocking on the Door.
9—Rodriguez (Bob Baffert, Authentic – Cayala, by Cherokee Run)
With the possibility of a frozen track at Oaklawn for the Rebel Stakes, he has been re-routed to the San Felipe against stablemate Barnes and Journalism. He actually worked a tick faster than Barnes going his six furlongs in 1:11 4/5. It’s hard to tell if he’s ready to handle those two, but he looks a lot better this week after Baeza, a colt he trounced by seven lengths going a mile, came back to easily break his maiden under no urging by almost five lengths, also at a mile. I still think there is a lot of room for improvement with him being a very late May 20 foal. It’s just a question whether he can catch up in time for the Derby. If he can take a big step forward against these horses it wouldn’t shock me if he turned out to be Baffert’s sleeper. I am basing that on all the good signs I saw in his maiden romp over Baeza going two turns for the first time and the way he found another gear, going from reverse to drive in a flash, on the far turn in the Robert Lewis Stakes, finishing a credible second to a far more advanced and faster Citizen Bull. Right now all signs are go for a big effort in two weeks.
10—Keep it Easy (Dale Romans, Hard Spun – Boxwood, by English Channel)
What the heck, I’ve come this far with him feeling he was going to bust out going two turns, so I might as well keep with it two more weeks. Did I think he was going to have to bust out against horses like Sovereignty, Burnham Square and possibly the other potential break-out sprinter Gate to Wire? Probably not. But do I like the way he’s working, with a half in : 46 3/5, and five furlongs in :59 flat and 1:00 3/5? Absolutely. This colt is fit and razor sharp. Would I be satisfied with a second or third? If he does it the right way like a Derby horse, definitely. What I do believe is that this colt, as good a sprinter as he was , is crying out for more distance. Now that he will finally get it, let’s see what he does with it against some proven two-turn horses.
11—Bullard (Mike McCarthy, Gun Runner – Reve d’Amour, by Warrior’s Reward)
I could have put several of the potential Rebel Stakes starters in this spot, including Sandman, who is high up on many Derby lists, but I feel this is a better horse than most people think and will show it when he stretches out to two turns. But he’ll have to do it from post 10 in a 14-horse field. I admit he does have issues to work out, especially with his lead changes, but McCarthy has had time to work on that. He has also given him three straight five-furlong works in 1:00 and change, so he should be plenty fit. Following his sound defeat to Barnes in the San Vicente he became the forgotten horse, going off at 76-1 in the third Future Wager pool and being dropped completely from pool 4. Now we just have to hope for a good track because it’s getting late for plans to be interrupted, the price for having so many lightly raced horses who haven’t even been two turns yet.
12—Chancer McPatrick (Chad Brown, Mckinzie – Bernardreamy, by Bernardini)
He’s now had back-to-back half-mile breezes at Payson Park and obviously should appreciate the extra week to the Tampa Bay Derby. But when you go that route, especially following surgery, it is with the understanding that nothing can wrong and you have to hope he handles what can be a quirky track and gets enough out of the race. He is probably the horse with the best credentials who still has something to prove. You can’t fault his stirring come-from-behind victories in the Grade 1 Hopeful and Champagne, but when he failed to fire in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in his two-turn debut it raised the question of whether he is more of a one-turn closer. His Brisnet figures are pretty strong, and to show what a strange race the Breeders’ Cup was, even finishing a non-threatening sixth his 99 speed rating equaled his high in the Hopeful and his late pace figure of 109 was one point slower than the Hopeful and 15 points faster than the Champagne.
KNOCKING ON THE DOOR
Those comments from the MAGNITUDE team may actually make sense, although not to this extent, if you consider that after running dismal Thoro-Graph numbers of “16 ½, 13 ¾, 12 ¼, and 10 ½,” he leaped to a “5 ½” in the Gun Runner. There is your change in the horse they talked about. But he regressed to a “9 ¼” in the LeComte and there is your hated the slop. So off the “5 ½” jump and then a bounce, another improvement could have been expected. And boy did he improve. Probably the most accurate comment from the team was “guess what, he’s gotta do it again or it doesn’t matter.” I would think another bounce alert will be on. Or in this strange year maybe not.
The most shocking aspect of the Risen Star Stakes other than having 43-1 shots running one-two and the winner getting a 108 Beyer and winning by almost 10 lengths despite not even changing leads until the sixteenth pole, is the word from Godolphin’s Dan Pride that EAST AVENUE had no excuse for his dreadful and inexplicable performance. When they look so good early tracking the pace and run into the proverbial brick wall nearing the top of the stretch, retreating so quickly and so badly, you would think there might have been a breathing problem, but that apparently was not the case. So what we saw at the back of the pack and the front of the pack coming down to the wire will, for now at least, remain a mystery. With Barnes and Citizen Bull co-favored at 8-1 in the Future Wager, East Avenue is still getting bet at 13-1 at 3 p.m. Sunday.
As for runner-up CHUNK OF GOLD, second in the Leonatus Stakes in only his second career start, chalk up another one for horses coming off Turfway Park’s synthetic surface, and credit trainer Ethan West for taking a shot. Chunk of Gold quietly ran a sensational race. He made a strong and steady move along the inside and after moving off the rail he kept getting stronger until he ran smack into a traffic jam, including a rapidly retreating East Avenue. He had to cut sharply to the rail and closed strongly to nip Built at the wire for second and galloped out strongly. With his white and red colors and the trip he had he reminded me of another synthetic horse, Rich Strike in the Derby. You just had to take Magnitude out of the picture. Not bad for a $2,500 yearling purchase,
BUILT took his run at the winner, who he easily defeated in the Gun Runner, but was no match for him this time. The lightly raced VASSIMO, making his stakes debut, was in great position early, sitting third, gave up the rail and was between horses when he backed out of it and looked like he was going to finish last. But he finally got in gear, circled horses and finished with good energy to just get up for fourth to at least give his connections some hope after his recovery and the experience he got from this crazy race. I would definitely look for improvement next time.
In the Sunland Derby, stakes savvy GETAWAY CAR and recent maiden winner CALDERA put on quite show in the stretch duel of the year, with the far more battle-tested Getaway Car just getting the bob after what one would call a ding-dong slugfest the entire length of the stretch. Experience-wise and class-wise, this should have been man against boy. But it was Caldera who looked like the stronger of the two at the head of the stretch after making a powerful move on the turn. After exchanging blows the rest of the way against a proven gutsy horse, Caldera had his head in front one step before the wire and one step after the wire.
While the winner is not considered a Derby horse, Caldera, with his big turn of foot, losing a ton of ground the entire race, and his courage under fire against a seasoned Baffert brawler, looks like he could definitely get Wayne Lukas and My Racehorse to Churchill Downs. He has the looks, running stye, and pedigree of a Derby horse, especially having to go five-wide on the first turn and remaining very wide the whole way, which should assure him of a big Thoro-Graph number. For now you have to love his Beyers. After runnng a 63 and 64, blinkers were added and he’s run an 82 and 91. If it’s any consolation, to me this was the best losing effort of the year considering Getaway Car had already run six times and finished on the board in five graded stakes, three of them Grade I. Now Caldera just has to get back those crucial points he lost and more or it’s back to the Preakness for the team. But if he runs back to this race against a much deeper field we’re looking at a serious Derby horse.
Well, racing’s favorite mother is at it again. The amazing Puca, who produced 2023 Kentucky Derby winner Mage and 2024 Belmont and Haskell winner Dornoch, may have another Triple Crown candidate in BAEZA, who easily disposed of a maiden field at Santa Anita, winning as he pleased by 4 ¾ lengths going a mile. Trained by John Shirreffs, there is a good chance we will see him next in a major Derby prep.
After another pot hole on the Derby trail, trying to find a leader of the division, we shudder at what may lie ahead for this coming weekend after learning about the freezing temperatures that could hit Arkansas around mid-week, especially after the disruption of last year’s meet from a frozen track. But they still had 14 enter for the Rebel, including several serious contenders, such as SANDMAN, California shippers MADAKET ROAD, subbing for Rodriguez, and BULLARD, and stakes winners COAL BATTTLE and SPEED KING. Also stakes-placed TIZTASTIC and up-and-comer HYPNUS. And after turning in a sharp five-furlong work in 1:00 on Saturday, the connections of recent allowance winner ADMIRAL DENNIS entered as well.
If you’re looking for a dark horse, watch out for MAXIMUM PROMISE in the Battaglia if he handles the synthetic.
Here is a brief look at the possible targets for WinStar’s cavalcade of stars: It looks as if RIVER THAMES is heading for the Fountain of Youth Stakes, PATCH ADAMS for the Tampa Bay Derby, and TAPPAN STREET for the Florida Derby. No decision has been made yet on JOHN HANCOCK and RAPTURE.
At this early date is looks as if the Fountain of Youth is going to be the big game changer if we get Sovereignty, Burnham Square, River Thames, Gate to Wire, and Keep it Easy. And we also have the return of FILOSO, the third-place finisher in the Breeders’ Futurity who worked a sharp five furlongs in :59 flat for Chad Summers
New York-bred or not, few horses this year have displayed as many qualities as SAND DEVIL has in his first three starts. In his career debut in December going six furlongs, he sat third and showed a quick turn of foot to cruise to the lead on the far turn with jockey Jose Lezcano barely moving his hands. In the stretch, he drew off under a hand ride to win by four lengths, running a perfectly straight course and closing each of his final two eighths in :12 1/5. In his “gallop-out” he kept going at such a fast clip it looked more like a continuation of the actual race. Covering the six furlongs in a sharp 1:10 2/5, he earned a sensational “3” Thoro-Gaph number. That is the same number Citizen Bull got in the Robert Lewis Stakes and was faster than Burnham Square in the Holy Bull. And this is a New York-bred first-time starter.
Stretching out to a mile in an allowance race in January, it was nothing more than a workout. Even with Lezcano looking back twice in the stretch and practically standing up in the irons the final sixteenth he still won by 12 ½ lengths in a canter and again kept going strong after the wire.
In his stakes debut in the February 8 Damon Runyon Stakes, he had to drop back to seven furlongs, and for the first time he was hooked by a very talented horse in NATIONAL IDENTITY, who had broken his maiden by 3 ¾ lengths and then was beaten a head in the New York Stallion Stakes by an undefeated Into Mischief horse trained by Brad Cox named SACROSANCT, who was coming off back-to-back stakes victories, including a 12-length romp in the Bertram Bongard Stakes. National Identity actually stuck his head in front in the Damon Runyon, but Sand Devil, despite a sharp :23 4/5 quarter and never having been set down before, battled back to get a narrow lead. National Identity kept coming at him, but Sand Devil dug in and refused to let him get his head in front, winning by a neck, with National Identity finishing 8 ½ lengths ahead of the third horse. What is noteworthy is that his Brisnet late pace figure of 111 is the fastest of any horse in the Future Wager pool.
Trainer Linda Rice said he will be pointed for the Gotham and Wood Memorial. His pedigree is all class and indicates the farther the better, so we’ll see where he fits in open stakes company. But he has shown all the signs of being a serious horse, as suggested by his most recent “4 ½” Thoro-Graph number and an expected forward move. In fact, keep an eye on all three of these talented New York-breds.
It came as no surprise that POSTER earned a faster Thoro-Graph number in the Sam F. Davis Stakes than the winner and runner-up because of his wider trip. In fact you have to love the progression of his numbers, going from a “13 ¼ to 12 to 6 ¾ to 4 ¼.” It’s still hard to believe he is a son of Munnings with his running style and late kick. And remember he was running on a speed-favoring track and rallied from last to finish third. Eoin Harty said the Jeff Ruby is possible, but we’ll see what he does with First Resort after the Battaglia. Harty said all options are open.
HILL ROAD, a fast-closing third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, is up to four furlongs in his works at Payson Park. At this point he’s looking like a Belmont horse.
Racing historian, author, and award-winning retired journalist for the Daily Racing Form and The Blood-Horse, Steve Haskin was inducted into the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame’s Media Roll of Honor in 2016. Known for his racing knowledge and insightful prose, he has been an exclusive contributor to Secretariat.com since 2020.
Saturday’s Derby Prep Races.
G2 San Felipe Stakes: Barnes for the win. Key Barnes on top, in the first slot, with Journalism and Rodriguez underneath in the 2nd and 3rd slots in a $40.00 tri p/w.
3/ 2,4/ 2,4
G2 Fountain of Youth: River Thames for the win. Key River Thames and Sovereignty on top, in the first two slots, with Gate to Wire, Burnham Square, McKellen, Neoequos and Keep It Easy underneath in the 3rd and 4th slots, in a $1.00 super p/w wager.
That is: 2,6/ 2,6/ 1,3,4,7,8/ 1,3,4,7,8
Flip that over and play another $1.00 super p/w as follows.
1,3,4,7,8/ 2,6/ 2,6/ 1,3,4,7,8
G3 Gotham: Sand Devil for the win. $40.00 straight exacta (Sand Devil/ Sacrosanct)
That is: 5/4.
Safe trips to all.
Only 6 entered in the San Felipe. Journalism from PP2 is surrounded by 3 BB horses. I’ll be cheering for Journalism to pull the mild upset.
Rodriguez looks tough…I hope Journalism finishes, but if Rodriguez gets an early lead none of Bob’s will press him…
I’m more worried about Barnes than Rodriguez. Rodriguez will go for the lead most likely , but Barnes does need Derby points , so I don’t see him conceding the win to Rodriguez without some point in the race going after him. Journalism breaks well from the gate and Rispoli should be able to track , stalk , and pounce whichever BB horse goes to the lead. IMO if anyone beats Journalism it will be Barnes and not Rodriguez. Journalism needs to run at least second here to get those Derby points because we know he wants 1 1/4. I’m sure McCarthy has him ready for this and he does have two turn experience over Barnes. Rodriguez regressed last out and IMO he will have to bring his A game to beat Journalism. I’m singling Journalism in my P5. Barnes will probably be 6-5. Journalism likely 5-2 or higher.
Solid Left is going to scratch from the FOY reducing the field to seven. I like Keep It Easy’s chance to pull the upset. I like his outside post in this small field. He is coming out of sprints and will be forwardly placed. Veteran jockey Corey Lanerie retains the mount. Hopefully for my 69-1 Bomb 💣 from KDFW4.
Todd Pletcher looks loaded for Saturday. Plenty of big favorites.
Mindframe’s return is the highlight.
Arlington fan I could not find FY’s Jockey Cam on YouTube.
I couldn’t either, Lynda. But thank you for looking!
You are welcome.
Kudos to Cornucopian for beating a very suspect field of also rans. The track bias was favoring speed all day…..except for Coal Battle making up about 8 lengths in the Rebel Stakes and Justique in the Carousel Stakes.
Is he just another flash in the pan like we have witnessed hundreds of times? Only time will tell.
The ones he beat are the flash in the pan, Coal Battle is for real.
Final 1/8 in 11 seconds and change is NOT a flash in a pan. With his breeding, his bar is set very high.
Well said, Jeff.
One race does NOT make a career.
Your ability to state the obvious is amazing, Zany.
Yet, you toot your horn at every opportunity.
You stated facts as if none of us have never seen before with other well bred horses.
Let’s see what he does in a few more races before anointing him as the next Justify.
I was referring to Cornucopian.
Zany, to some every horse from that barn is the next Secretariat. Lol
Every year it’s the same drum beat.
They will receive a personal thank you note from their idol. Keep in mind these are grown adults….🤦♂️
You can’t make this stuff up.
Beyers for the three year olds that just ran….
Coal Battle…. 91 (to be fair this horse has made steady improvement from a 55 in his maiden win to a 75 in the Jean Laffite to an 84 in the Springboard Mile then another 84 in the Smarty Jones)
Tiz Secure….nothing posted yet
Cornucopian….101 in his maiden win-the Arkansas Derby is listed as his next goal.
Interesting follow-up. Not to make comparisons but some here have wondered if this colt (Cornucopian) could be another Justify. Justify started his first race on February 18, 2018 and won by 9 and half lengths and garnered a 104 Beyer. C won Sunday, February 23 and by at least a half of dozen lengths and earned his 101 Beyer. Again, interesting.
I really liked Tiz Secure’s race. He was striding out well past the wire. Both he and Cornucopian could end up near the top of the crop, if they stay healthy. I love Coal Battle, but a 91 Beyer in a fast paced race is just ok. His move was impressive, though.
Two debut MSW winners and you are forecasting both could end up near the top of the crop.
Cox had some impressive MSW debut winner. Did you make the same forecast?
How many KDs has Cox won on the racetrack?
OK!
In some instances, a question can answer question. However, the question in your response bears no relation to the question posed.
I fail to see the correlation between a debut MSW winner and a KD winner
Sorry. I was mistaken. One contibutor often discards 3YOs from one prominent trainer from his derby consideration based on the trainer’s dismal record in that race. I was visually impressed by two colts from a trainer with a fairly successful history in the KD. They broke well, ran straight, and powered past the wire. They seem to have potential. Full disclosure, i was less impressed by the well regarded Barnes’ debut race.
Justify was an outlier—rushing Cornucopian….I wouldn’t do it….
Agreed! Wouldn’t be first time with this trainer and many others.
Please…stop it. He has a better chance of being nysos….
Hi all:
Tiz Secure got an 84 Beyer. For those with a DRF Plus account, there’s a little known tab called “Winners’ Book”. If you go to the top right of the home page (next to your initials), there are three horizontal lines.
Click on the lines, then look for the DRF Plus link and click on it. A page will (slowly) open with a scroll bar near the top third of the page.
Click on THAT and scroll down a list of race tracks. Click on the track you want. You’ll get a queue of recent race results by day WITH the winner’s winning Beyer. Winners’ Book usually posts two days after the Saturday races for big tracks. Except Oaklawn; Saturday hasn’t posted yet.
Cornucopian close out was absolutely beast mode; wonder if Bob could pull off another justify? Is it too late in the game?
Hey, don’t leave out Tiz Secure
Lol.
Was John Handcock beast like when set a SR in the Sam Davis?
Was Magnitude beast like when he won the Risen Star.?
The above performances were against winners.
Bob…how quaint
While we wait for Steve’s column, there is a very interesting conversation going on between John Stewart of Resolute Racing and Kenny McPeak on X.
John asked the question as to why American horses race so infrequently as compared to other countries.
Kenny’s response was that the racing secretaries at the track set the rules in the conditio8ng book. The Thoroughbred is as strong as ever and that the time between races for a horse has lengthened a lot across his years as a trainer.
Did anyone on this forum know this?
It is an explanation that I have never heard before.
Lynda, that sounds a little weird to me. I do know that tracks card races based on the horses they have on the grounds (and knowing how often trainers like to race them). Steve, I’d like to see your take on this, but I know you are hard at work on this weeks’ column.
Evidently the software that is used is out of date for one thing.
Kenny suggested someone buy a race track, update the software.. May have been in jest bit he sounded serious.
I had no idea that the track secretary made the decision on how often a horse could race.
On track and do not recall where does not allow claimed to race back in less than two weeks. New York maybe?
That’s nuts. Still doesn’t explain why trainers wait four or even more weeks between races for stakes-caliber horses. I’d like to see figures for horses in the maiden and claiming ranks.
Me as well…what “rules”? That you cannot run back soon?
Lynda, go to the westpointtb dot com website. They have a an informative video 38 minutes as well as written explanation on the: “Thoroughbred Condition Book: How it Works and Race Types”
Thanks David.
I ended up having do a search for West Point Thoroughbreds Conditions Book because I do not have a member login.
Watch part of the introductory episode (there are several). I got the gist of what the condition book is. However the discussion between Stewart and McPeak just did not jive with the explanation.
I will plead ignorance here that perhaps S&M were talking about graded stakes races and the video was about smaller tracks, MSW, Allowance and Claiming races.
Sorry Lynda, I haven’t heard the discussion between John Stewart and Kenny McPeak but it sounds like how horses progress from maidens etc but it could also be about medications.
There is the The Jockey Club – The Role of the Steward in Thoroughbred Racing. Very dry. Ha ha
Ten horses are listed as possible for the San Felipe. Would love to see ten run. Liking Journalism’s chance to shine and get the win.
No worries David!
What I gathered from the conversation it had to to with the track secretary’s condition book and that it was the track secretary making the decision on when a horse could be entered in a race.
This is new territory for me.
One thing that the President of WPT said was the that the shrinking foal crop was having an impact on number of entries.
Stands to reason that a shortage of horses leads to higher prices at auction. This of course benefits the stud farm.
Then there is the flip side that hundreds and hundreds of Thoroughbreds end up in bad circumstances or in the pipeline to Mexico.
Now that the Rebel Stakes is in the record books, the Fountain of Youth is next up on the Derby trail. It’s interesting to note that seven of the eight entrants in the FOY, are last out winners. Sovereignty hasn’t raced in four months, so his soundness entering a G2 stakes race could be something to consider relative to wagering. Bill Mott might be using the FOY as a tune up for the Florida Derby. Many on this site have jumped aboard the Burnham Road bandwagon. As a gelding, I’m reluctant to endorse him as a legitimate Derby prospect. From my perspective, River Thames checks the most boxes as the likely FOY winner. More than likely, he inherited his impressive tactical speed from his sire, Maclean’s Music, and the class/stamina reflected on his dam side, is top tier. He’s bred from the Mr. Prospector/Northern Dancer cross, which has produced a significant number of Triple Crown winners.
River Thames could be Todd Pletcher’s best Derby prospect since Always Dreaming’s win in the 2017 Kentucky Derby. John Velazquez was aboard Always Dreaming in that race, eight years ago, and will be aboard River Thames in the FOY.
Over the years, the Pletcher/Velazquez connection has produced countless stakes winning results.
River Thames could be a monster in the making, IMO.
My top 15 Derby prospects are as follows:
1)River Thames
2) Sovereignty
3) Citizen Bull
4) Barnes
5) Getaway Car
6) Cornucopian
7) Coal Battle
8) Baeza
9) John Hancock
10) Captain Cook
11) First Resort
12) Journalism
13) Disco Time
14) Rodriquez
15) Sandman
Hey Bill: My Top 12 looks a little like yours — only inverted! I’m holding off on River Thames until the Fountain of Youth. I’ve no doubt he will be a player but my mother in law was from Missouri.
1 Citizen Bull (he’s shown more and been more dominant than any of the others so far)
2 Burnham Square (exudes class)
3 Coal Battle (had him second, but Burnham got the nod because he’s a home bred)
4 Tappan Street (has lightly raced Derby winner written all over him, another recent trend)
5 Journalism (San Felipe will be key)
6 Sandman (disappointed his Beyer for the Rebel dropped from the Southwest, but still like him)
7 Madaket Road (he could surprise, just like Medina Spirit)
8 Barnes (waiting on his 2-turn debut, but he has all the tools)
9 Chancer McPatrick (ditto, plus he’s already a Grade 1 winner)
10 Sovereignty (with two top prospects scratching out of their respective races, he’s got to hurry)
11 Caldera (more upside for 10 f. than Getaway Car to me)
12 Getaway Car (but he deserves to be on this list because of his Sunland performance)
It will be fun to see what Steve has to say this week.
Thanks for the reply Ms Blacktype
Yes, we have similar top prospects which I find encouraging. I did notice you didn’t include Cornucopian in your top 12, but to each their own. I thought he looked super impressive in his maiden win on Saturday, earning an Equibase Speed figure of 107. I haven’t seen his Beyer number, but I would think it’s in the 90’s. He’s getting a late start on the Derby trail, but not too late, IMO.
Baffert has several options open for Cornucopian’s next start, possibly the Arkansas Derby on March 29th.
From my perspective, Cornucopian has one of the best pedigrees, relative to speed, class and stamina versus all others in this year’s crop of 3yr. olds.
Needless to say, I’m looking forward to his next start on the Derby trail.
Been traveling all weekend, so haven’t seen Cornucopian’s race yet. The way many of these one-hit wonders have performed in stakes so far this season, I’m taking a conservative approach. Looking forward to all the racing as the Trail heats up.
Bill,
Just watched the race now. He really put on the speed once he hit the stretch. Very impressive horse.
I still think Sandman is a Derby contender!..
I doubt Cornucopian goes in the Derby..
Hey Matthew W
I suspect Cornucopian’s connections will test him for class and distance in his next start, possibly the Arkansas Derby. In the event he passes that test, in impressive fashion, as he did in his maiden win, I would think the Derby will be serious consideration moving forward.
Bottom line, it’s too early to dismiss Cornucopian as a Derby prospect, IMO.
Hi Bill…yeah I stand corrected, he could certainly qualify for the Derby, by entering the Arkansas Derby, and doing well—I think rushing a horse into The Derby is a bad play—and that’s a very fine piece of horse flesh—I could see him even winning the Ark Derby….it just seems too much too soon….
Thanks for the reply, Matthew W.
This is standard operating procedure for Baffert to enter one of his top colts relatively late on the Derby trail. He’s followed this pattern year after year. Is Cornucopian the top colt in the Baffert barn? That remains to be seen. With respect to Barnes, Citizen Bull, Rodriguez and their respective maiden wins, for Bob Baffert, I’d venture to say that Cornucopian’s maiden was by far, the most impressive of the four. Just my opinion, Matthew.
Me also.
You lost me at Getaway Car.
No room for the gelding.
In Trouhbred Racing it is widely acknowledged that weight allowance can give horses with lesser talent a chance to win. However, allowing ground has never been an option considered for the difference in talent.
When a horse is slow out of the gates. Its chances of winning against good opponents is considerably reduce if not impossible.
Sandman broke a lot better today and Speed King finished behind
Admiral Dennis broke badly for the 2nd in his two graded stakes races. The colt was attired with a shadow roll and blinkers. What possible problems this colt could possess that all that headgear is necessary? Will he not beak into a gallop without them?
The top 3 finishers had no decorations on their heads.
Trainer Brad Cox is being irresponsible to dress up this colt like a clown.
El Caballo Payaso.
Your man Pletcher looks loaded for bear at Gulfstream on Saturday.
Go all in on all.
I have been on Coal Battle’s bandwagon for awhile, going back to at least Week One or Week Two of Steve’s list.
This colt, his connections and his pedigree, the price he brought at auction ($10, 500) are just my cup of tea.
His sire, Coal Front, was booted out of Spendthrift in 2024 and will stand at a small farm in Louisiana.
Guess what I am trying to say that the bright shiny objects do not necessarily catch my eye. Often it is thev diamond in the rough or the colt or filly from the wrong side of the tracks that catch my eye: Example California Chrome.
So yes, I am thrilled he won today. He is in the Derby. Does not matter who he did or did not beat.
On another note, Forever Young.
Some horses reach their peak at 3, others at 4. Some sustain their competive level to age 5, 6 or beyond.
If one has followed Forever Young they will know he is taller and carries more weight than at 3. He trained beautifully all week both in attitude and in movement before the Saudi Cup.
A note to Coldfacts, Forever Young did not beat some turf horse, it was Romantic Warrior. You might want to look him up.
Forever Young has won a free trip to the Breeders Cup and it is possible that he is going to Dubai for the Dubai World Cup in April.
Forever Young and Coal Front are horses that dreams are made of and I am happy that I am still very much the little girl who fell in love with horse racing because of a horse named Carry Back.
Very nicely written, Lynda. I feel the same way, but could not put so eloquently!
Thank you biggy.
Ms. King, exactly what I’ve stated for years. Purchased for 70k. Sometimes it doesn’t take a 3mil horse and high profile trainer to prevail. Many small barns,if they get the opportunity can win. Singled him. And…….. on another racing site, couple with cluster of user names are losing their mind. Lol
Wishing him the best of luck and that he goes all the way!
Mike, thank you for the correction on sales price.
I owe an apology to Counter Point. He did not make the remark about Forever Young.
It was Discopartner.
I was expressing my opinion, and not in response to your comment. Romantic Warrior is a turf horse, who has never raced in Europe or the UK, who has only beaten turf horses in Japan, Australia and the Middle East. That doesn’t make him the best turf horse. The other horses in the race were middling dirt and turf horses. The race lost all its American entrants and was not the best Saudi Cup.
Well said Lynda! We actually found FS2 on my friend’s Hulu/streaming feed, so I got to see the Honeybee, Razorback AND Rebel in real time. Was thrilled that Coal Battle won (my exacta was a total failure, but who cares?). He’s a really good horse — so much more so than many of the carefully managed million-dollar babies. I was so disappointed that both Bullard and First Resort scratched out of their races. Steve is not going to like that. Still a lover of Forever Young and the up and coming Japanese 3YOs too.
I have seen no post from Coldfact that specified that Forever Young defeated some horse.
That’s right Lynda, Coal Battle takes you back to early childhood when you watched the movie “Kentucky” and started dreaming of the Kentucky Derby. I hope the racing gods are in a sentimental mood this year because US racing needs a Coal Battle fairy tale to come true. Everyone, everywhere for that matter.
Lynda,
Although Coal Battle is a nice rags to riches story , and trying rain on you parade, but even if he should win the Kentucky Derby his fate and value as a stallion will probably follow the same road as Sunday Silence, California Chrome and Rich Strike and that is because his pedigree, like the others, is not fashionable to what the Breeders are looking for. His sire is a $2000 stallion out of Louisiana and rest is a hit and miss in the pedigree in other areas.
As far as his ride today the jockey did an exceptional job in getting him in a good position to make a great run into the stretch and his run was similar to Burnham Steel (BS) except he caught a tiring horse in the stretch were as BS caught a horse (Tappan Street) at the top of the stretch who was gaining momentum. I do feel he easily can get the 1 1/4 mile but I also feel there are others out there that can to Irad also did a great job on MR. but I think he is an iffy for the KD but there is always a possibility he may sneak in. I would not count him out if he gets in as he might be able to be rated from well off the pace. The front just happened to be the right place for him today and he will gain a ton of base from this race today but then again I don’t feel he is Baffert’s top horse. Coal Battle if he stays healthy and wins the AK Derby (which will not be an easy task as he will probably face and even stronger field ) he will definitely get my attention and consideration for the KD. If by chance he wins the TC he is a whole different story but that is a BIG IF ……Again this is JMO.
Right on about tge “bright shiny objects”….more like fool’s gold….last derby winner that cost a million or more was fusaichi pegasus 25 years ago….
Lynda King– Thanks for your insights. I am so happy for Coal Battle’s connections. He is the only trainee of his 72 year old trainer and horseman Lonnie Brilay. Coal Battle has a classic pedigree, with Bernadini (AP Indy) at the top and Midshipman at the bottom.
Forever Young is quite an appropriate name for a champion who only gets better with maturity. And his will to win and heart are a throwback to his great grand sire, Sunday Silence. But unlike SS, he appears to have a sweet temperament.
It’s also interesting at Coal Battle’s sire, Coal Front, was trained by Todd Pletcher.
I truly hope Coal Battle wins the KD, and his turn move was just the kind of move that wins the derby. I would not be excited about any of the other closers because the fast pace flatters them, bias or no. What we shouldn’t forget is that Madaket Road buried the other speed and kept running, while being maybe about the 5th most talented colt in his trainer’s barn. If a few horses stay healthy, the waters are about to get deeper.
Todd, Madaket Road’s impost was 5 Lbs less than Coal Battle had to carry and 2 Lbs less than Sandman had to carry on a track that was made for him. The Rebel was only a 1 1/16 mile race, at 10 furlongs Sandman and Coal Battle would have ‘buried’ Madaket Road.
I think Coal Battle is a very nice horse, better than Madaket Road, and could win the KD. I think Sandman will continue to find excuses and lose to horses who get the jump on him. As I said, I don’t consider MR among the top 3yos, but two pretty good speed horses who chased him were at the back of the field at the finish. Of course, we always have to allow for horses to develop and change. Gives us something to talk about for a few months.
Agree.
Todd, I don’t think Bob Baffert sends out stock to compete in million dollar races to lose. Some results in California, with fields mostly suppled by Baffert, seem a little suspect but that’s a part of training.
With Sandman he’s probably a lock for the Belmont Stakes and a major contender for the Kentucky Derby. Just playing around at this stage.
I must say, for a Kentucky Derby that looked so Ho hum in early January it could be one of the great Derby stories now. Enjoy the ride and the best of luck to everyone.
Davids, D Wayne Lucas who probably knows Bob as well as anyone, said that one of Bob’s talents is entering his trainees into races they will win (paraphrase).
I agree with you that Bob is not going to send a horse out to lose a million dollar race.
Racing to condition is just not in his wheelhouse in my opinion.
Basically Bob’s training regimine is to train hard, fast and to break fast and go to the lead right out of the gate. There are exceptions of course but this seems to be his recipe for success.
I believe MR was Baffert’s backup plan. As Steve pointed out he was going to send Rodriguez until the weather forecast soured. Didn’t want to risk Rodriguez on what looked to be a frozen track. While I like Coal Battle alot he barely beat Baffert’s 4th or 5th stringer. Will wait to see another race from Coal Battle against better. The water gets deeper going forward. It’s a great story but I’m also leery of a 70+ yr old Trainer with no experience in the training a KY Derby Horse when it comes to the big day. More go into that than almost any other race.
Be leery till the cows come home. This horse is for real!!!
That’s spot on Lynda, Bob Baffert is not shrinking violet, he takes no prisoners either. The logic that Bob Baffert would be sending one of his lesser runners to compete in a Grade 2 prep race with prize money exceeding 1 million dollars while securing the horse into the Kentucky Derby with a win is pure folly.
Meanwhile, the supposed ‘better Baffert runners’ at home can scramble against each other to get in the Derby while against, arguably, better external opposition defies ‘common sense.’
A bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush…Come on lads, give Coal Battle some respect he isn’t on top of the Point Standings for no reason.
Lots of hurt feelings,Davids.
Davids, not even close at 10f.
You said it, Davids.
I am not going to right off Madaket Road completely as he might be able to be rated he did come off the pace in his maiden win. He will also gain a ton of base from this race.
Agree; MD will definitely move forward with this effort; quality road might make distance a non issue; will Bob take him to KD? I don’t think so when he has 4 other highly rated colts.
As well as Publisher , he was closing like a freight train too.
Glad you mentioned him. He was almost ignored in the calls of the race, as well as in the comments, and I too liked his performance. Like most of these three-year-olds, he’s still a question mark but he’s one I’m going to keep an eye on. I thought all the top four finishers ran creditable races yesterday and I wouldn’t write off any of them.
Horses can allow weight but it’s not advisable to give up large chunks of ground. Large chunks of ground given is unlikely to be reigned.
Races are won and lost at the start.
Congrats to all who had the COAL, heck of a turn of foot. Baffert’s 3rd string carved out some hellacious fractions and held tough. I didnt expect him to be on the lead, but Irad did well.
Agree.
Does Madaket Road want any further than the distance of the Rebel Stakes? Even if the race was run at a more moderate tempo Coal Battle still beats him and Sandman flashes home late.
Like a drum.
I lost on Admiral Dennis, but I can take some solus from the fact that he would have won if not for his disastrous start.
The Equibase chart reflects the colt trialed by 23L was steered widest of all and was only 7L away at the finish.
What could have been was not meant to be.
Considering the track bias, Sandman ran a heck of a race. He should flourish going 9 to 10 furlongs.
Breaking well helped! Very nice horse, very much on the radar.
Sandman should find the Churchill Down stretch the perfect platform to fully extend with 10 f. the perfect distance. His prep couldn’t have more impressive and I believe in Coal Battle.
Sandman is Tapit Trice II. Coal Man has the Classic breeding. versatility and turn of foot you want in a Derby horse. Coal Man is magnficently linebred to Seattle Slew and Mr. Prospector who are closely related via their female lines. This pattern really magnifies the excellence of Frizette in this pedigree along with many other factors.
Coal Man’s trainer said they are going in the AK Derby.
God I feel like an idiot, I’ve called him Coal Man twice. Coal Battle. Duh. LOL
Arguably, I’d say Sandman has a few more gears than Tapit Trice but Tapit Trice no doubt will have a better race record going into the Kentucky Derby should Sandman make it into the final 20.
Interesting comparison. When I worked in KY, a word that got batted around for a horse like Tapit Trice was “counterfeit.” Sandman could be that kind, too, but he appears to have quite a bit of interest in the proceedings at this stage in his career. Got to see if that will translate to a desire to pass the front runners.
No more knocking on the door. Whoo hoo Coal Battle
Yes.
This coal is so versatile , and an iron horse . I think they will skip the Ar Derby like they did from the Southwest. Funny thing is iwatching so many folks now talking him up but very few prior to this race. I had him in my futures after the Southwest We have horse at Oaklawn so got to see him run
I posted about Coal Battle ahead of his Cpringboard Mile and Smarty Jones wins.
He would have been beaten if Admiral Dennis did not leave the gates so poorly. Admiral D trailed by 23L and was only 7L away at the end on a speed favoring surface.
I bet him to win, missed the exacta and tri, primed him in a KD contest. But someone was on him early, not me. I wish that person would comment.
Mark, he was my selection. One of a few from day one having my interest.
You have an excellent eye, Mike.
Many times interested in blue collar horses Ms. Blacktype, instead of the mil dollar horses.
Coal Man’s trainer said they are going in the AK Derby.
Coal Battle. Duh.
Whilst he didn’t beat anyone in the door. He certainly has enough point to be on the other side of the door.
Got to be in it, and even then don’t have to be the most talented colt overall to win it!
Admiral Dennis had no chance with that break. The colt’s trainer has become a blinkers advocate. The entrants that occupied the first 5 position upfront had nothing on their faces.
Straight No Chaser! Forever Young! Coal Battle! My neighbor must be wondering why I keep whooping and hollering.
What a weekend!
Yeeeessss! Everyone deserves a spree when the bays for days bring it!
Coal Battle was 45-1 before Rebel, now 20-1…
Which was so stupid because he beat Soeed king in the Springboard. Blew the field away in the smarty Jones . The crazy thing is Oaklawn has proven with huge purses that the good horses would prep there.
Agree: I pressed a bit in futures before the Rebel
Coal Battle is a serious Derby horse!!! Missed the trifecta, but did have the 1-5 exacta…
Yeah, had him.
Nice!
Thanks! Not too bad for a horse selling far below a mil.
Lots of heart…
No doubt.
Yep. Me too
Nice EX hit Biggy.
Thanks Joe!
First six races six different tracks–numbers kept on rising—they were able to get a Feb 17th work into him and now he’s in The Derby! Coal Battle!
Carrying 122 to boot! Heck yeah! Coal Battle train just keeps rolling. What fun this weekend!
Sandman is going to get to the front at the wire one of these times.
First Mission -122
Banishing – 119
Alexander Helios 117
2lbs to 5lbs matters
Based on the previous 1 1/16 races at Oaklawn, speed has been holding up. Unfortunately, closers are at a disadvantage.
Since there are no “Arrogate” in the Rebel Stakes, changing betting strategy. Ortiz on the 5 is intriguing and the workout is telling. Several speedsters to choose from.
The pace horse in two turn races finishes top two…
Well, it papers I am totally wrong regarding my views that Admiral Dennis has a shot. With 18 minutes to post the colt is 27/1
I am interested in Publisher today and going forward. With the success of American Pharoah’s get in Japan, I took a look at this colt’s pedigree. He gets a TrueNicks D, but I really like the dam’s pedigree: her family tree is just full of broodmare sires. No inbreeding thru 5.
Not off of Coal Battle, just interested to see another Pharoah son on the trail.
I would be happy if American Pharoah could see more than modest success in the breeding shed. Sometimes, I think it takes a while to figure out what crosses work. Some were just made to be racehorses, not sires.
When I come back in from feeding my critters, the Rebel will be in the books – and we might know more than we knew!
For a TC winner his success is modest for sure.
Secretariat – Risen Star
Affirmed – Zero
Settle Slew – A P Indy; Swale
Yes, Counter correct! My point AP to date-limited success.
AP Indy has had some bad luck in the Derby but he’s had male line descendants represent like Chrome and Orb. As a sire he has a Preakness and Belmont winner. Seattle Slew and Indy are all over the pedigrees of numerous distance winners. Coal Battle has the most linebreeding to Seattle Slew that I’ve ever seen.
Katy an American Pharoah colt won the Hyacinth.
Yep, that was the one I saw, and apparently another ran. 30 points for KY-bred Luxor Cafe on the Japanese trail. That was what made me wonder if this might be a better crop for American Pharoah.
Publisher looked a little bit like a racehorse – he closed well on a track that did not favor closers for most of the day. I think my feelings about Coal Battle are pretty obvious, but I liked the top 4 finishers in the Rebel. I think they might all make legit racehorses, whether in the Derby or not!
The career of Forever Young to date seems to have exposed just how much medication has damaged the American thoroughbred breed.
That was a weak field of turf horses, still not convinced.
Promised Gene—a daughter of Nadal…appears to be the best Japanese 3yo of either sex….she was flying for 2nd, in the one mile Hyacinth…Ka Ying Rising won his 10th in a row at Hong Kong, beating twelve rivals….a turf sprinter extraordinaire….meanwhile at Oaklawn Jose Ortiz is ringing that bell time and again, three of the first six races….I like him on Skinner later on….
I saw that Matthew W. She was flying.
Limited research!
In the last 33 years there has only been 1 winner of the Rebel who was a last out debut winner.
That was the mighty Curlin. He probably is the only last out debut win of the Rebel.
Was Hypnus’ MSW debut win as impressive as that of Curlin?
How will Hypnus performed without Lasix given he made his debut with the RDM?
How will Hynus perform on a dry and fast surface?
I like Hypnus but I contend his use in the wagering must be approached with caution
Lasix isn’t a performance drug, the biggest worry is horsesneed a bit more recovery time…but Hypnus has several good works—and the stamina was there!
“Lasix isn’t a performance drug”
The blue pill was developed as a heart drug. During testing it was discovered it properties that could address erectile disfunction.
Lasix is diuretic and has never developed for horses that experience bleeding. Its wide use on horse isn’t for bleeding. Where permitted most if not all race entrants are administered the drug to level the playing field.
There have been no reported cases of bleeding since its used was prohibited in the TC series and Breeder Cup.
At your convenience, examine the races Smoken Wicked has contested with Lasix and those without.
Horses bleed naturally….you cannot “breed it out”—Lasix can help prevent a BAD bleed, a bad bleeding and does ruin a horse—I’m fine, with making it no Lasix but—don’t say it’s for cheating purposes, because it is not..
How did cheating get into this?
Lasix can be used to accelerate the exit of other drugs form the system due to the excessive urination its use causes. That’s the cheating related issue with Lasix.
That was never the focus of my post. Horses delivering dull performances, will suddenly show almost immediate form reverse when administered with Lasix.
The drug clearly has some enhancing prosperities.
How did cheating find its way get into this exchange?
Lasix can be used to accelerate the exit of other drugs form the system due to the excessive urination its use causes. That’s the cheating related issue with Lasix.
That was never the focus of my post. Horses delivering dull performances, will suddenly show almost immediate form reverse when administered with Lasix.
The drug clearly has some enhancing prosperities.
Sorry, gotta address a couple things here:
Lasix is a “heart drug” but mostly as a diuretic for heart failure. It does not address erectile dysfunction (in fact in a few studies data suggests it may worsen it).
The “blue pill” was/is Viagra, originally studied as a blood pressure medication/anti-anginal (reduction of chest pain) but then incidentally found to greatly help with erectile dysfunction.
Just don’t want people out there taking Lasix (furosemide) in the hopes it’ll help their sex life 😉 .
Cornucopian lived up to my expectations, showing his impressive speed going gate to wire. By Into Mischief, out of Magical World, by Distorted Humor, his tail-female side is all class and stamina to compliment the speed he possess. His 2nd dam, Pleasant Home, earned around $1.0 million in her career, including the BC Distaff. In addition, there’s Seeking the Gold, Mr. Prospector, Con Game, Pleasant Colony, Maplejinsky, Buckpasser, His Majesty and Nijinsky on his tail-female side.
Bottom line, Cornucopian has an excellent mix of speed and stamina which should make him a serious Derby prospect moving forward on the Derby trail.
Will Baffert ship Cornucopian back for the Arkansas Derby? He just might.
Needless to say, this year’s crop of 3yr. olds by Into Mischief are his best crop ever, IMO.
The performance delivered by horses that run with Lasix should always be viewed with caution.
Agreed.
Bill,
Guessing game were he will send him. But he has lots of options with several of his horses. Wood Memorial, Blue Grass, Arkansas Derby, Lexington. Tiz Secure looks like he can go a distance too. Yes, this does seem to be Into Mischief’s year.
Thanks for the reply, Downthestretch.
It blows my mind that Into Mischief has so many top prospects on the Derby trail.
Namely, Sovereignty, Citizen Bull, Barnes, Tappan Street, Patch Adams, Donut God, Cornucopian and possibly Hypnus (pending his performance in the Rebel).
Currently, I would rate Sovereignty as the top 3yr. old sired by Into Mischief.
He’ll be matched up against some solid contenders in the Fountain of Youth, such as River Thames, Gate to Wire, Burnham Square and Keep it Easy.
I’ll go with River Thames as my pick in the FOY.
River Thames checks a lot of boxes, IMO.
Bill,
Right now my money is with Burnham Square in the end though may the best horse win whoever that may be.
:23.5 last quarter!..Bob debuted another yesterday at Santa Anita….I hear Rodriguez looked awesome today—Barnes and Citizen Bull also worked—wow….
The last furlong in 11.61 while probably geared down…wow!
Cornucopian 1:09 flat Oaklawn…Bob/Irad….
The Factor recorded a time of 1 :06+ for 6F.
Well not really….The Factor debuted 1:06 4/5 on opening day Dec 26th—the first dirt race in several years, and track was way too fast….that Malibu—Twirling Candy beat Smiling Tiger a NOSE—1:19 4/5 which broke Spectacular Bid’s decades long 1:20, in the 1979 Malibu—but The Factor was pretty good—I’m just talking horses, you guys who don’t like Bob need to at least talk about the HORSES, because it’s Horse Racing!
You missed the context of my post.
Fast debut times are not unusual. Many that have recorded such time have not been players in the KD.
Ignore The Factor – Maclean’s Music recorded a time of 1:07.44
This has nothing to do with BB.
The mighty F’s full brother won on debut in a new TR.
101 Beyer debuts are unusual…at least nowadays..
Risen Star time for 1 1/2 mile race 2:26 2/5
Secretariat time for 1 1/2 mile race 2:24
In the end “Both” won the Belmont Stakes impressively !!!
Your point ????
Nice ride …. Irad didn’t even have to use the afterburners…. I liked from the beginning to the end the horses ears were pinned back. This is a serious horse. Matt did you see Tiz Secure’s race yesterday from SA 8 race..,,, Also impressive !!!!
It looked to me like he took a awkward step nearing the finish, sort of propped—track is fast but he looked good….I also notice shippers doing well, the Oaklawn horses were unable to do much training the last week….
Going to try to hit a trifecta in the Rebel; Going to key Coal Battle in trifecta wheel, with Admiral Dennis, Sandman, Hypnus, Publisher, Speed King, and Tiztastic…leaving Madaket Road out…
1 (2,3,4,6,11,13)(2,3,4,6,11,13)
(2,3,4,6,11,13) 2 (2,3,4,6,11,13)
(2,3,4,6,11,13)(2,3,4,6,11,13) 1
$0.50 trifecta $15 each way, so bet is $45
Good luck to everyone betting Rebel; good betting race…
Also, Disco Time now 60-1 in futures; maybe a good bet if he still is on Derby trail, not so good if he is not!
(2,3,4,6,11,13) 1 (2,3,4,6,11,13)
I am a big fan of Coal Battle. However, he has to allow between 3lbs to 5lbs to several talented opponents that have run significantly faster than he has.
What gives you the confidence to key him?
Like his versatility and will-to-win; has won on fast and off tracks, has won at multiple tracks also; can still improve and run faster
Has won leading and pressing
Good response, hope he wins.
Noted!
Biggy,
I don’t know your money situation but why would you leave a Baffert horse out of your trifecta in a big money 3 year old race especially with a front running favoring track? You were right on with you Coal Battle key.
True: I should have kept Madaket in my trifecta, at least trifecta didn’t pay too much and had exacta….
I do have Coal Battle at 55-1 in futures, and can win $7k should he win the Derby…
Also thought other speed would go with him
Yes, I thought there would be more pressure on the frontend but those were very fast fractions in the early part of the race. But good that you hit the exacta. Good luck on your future bet… You never know
Thanks! Best of luck to you too!
Rebel Stakes.
I’ll key Sandman and Hypnus on top in the first two slots, with Coal Battle, Admiral Dennis, Madaket Road, Innovator, Smoken Wicked, Speed King and Tiztastic underneath in the 3rd and 4th slots.
That is: 3,4/ 3,4/ 1,2,5,8,9,11,13/ 1,2,5,8,9,11,13 ($1.00 superfecta p/w)
I’ll flip that over and play another $1.00 super p/w wager.
That is: 1,2,5,8,9,11,13/ 3,4/3,4/1,2,5,8,9,11,13.
I’m looking forward to seeing how Cornucopian performs in race #5, on the Rebel undercard. With a win today, he could provide Bob Baffert three top colts on the Derby trail.
I can foresee five to six Into Mischief colts in the Kentucky Derby starting gate.
Like your wager, Bill: Good luck!
Would love to see Hypnus win…
Good luck to you as well, biggy312.
Lynda, I’m posting this at the top since your reference to the Jockey Cam for Forever Young is far down the thread now–I was just wondering, where did you see that? It sounded so neat.
I follow several racing groups on FB and X.
If you have FB go to the Racing World page and scroll down and you will see it the Jockey Cam video.
Make sure you have the sound turned on.
Hi Lynda,
Alas, I’m not on FB or X, but thank you for getting back to me about it!
It might be on You Tube.
If I find it will let you know.
Anybody impressed with Burrito Supreme — er, California Burrito (that name cracks me up!)? He won on the lead but had to duel with two different horses. Pretty nice Beyer (92) too.
Ms Blacktype, the original ‘California Burrito’ started in San Diego decades ago from the mobile ‘roach coaches’ that were parked up and down the coast. These later-to-be-known food trucks were a favorite food for the surfers and beach bonnies that frequented the coastline. I believe the name of the trucks were either called Alberto’s or Roberto’s….can’t remember. But the California Burrito became the Big Kaunas of Mexican food and people often went on ‘burrito runs’ at 2 or 3 am instead of the more popular ‘donut runs’.
I figured there had to be a delicious food history behind that name, John. Thanks.
Enchiladas are authentic Mexican and better!
John
My favorite is a machaca burrito, (a mixture of shredded beef, scrambled eggs, bell peppers, onions and salsa added to taste). A side of refried beans with jack cheese adds enjoyment to the meal. There are several Humberto’s Restaurants here in San Diego that are considered the best place to find a variety of burritos and other Mexican dishes. One thing about Mexican food, you know you’ve eating when you finish your meal.
Bill, you are making me hungry and I just finished a delicious dinner at a friend’s house! Great restaurants in San Diego. I’ve only visited one time and barely scratched the surface.
I love the history here, and I am salivating. I get that some are more authentic, but they all eat pretty good!
I hope this horse stays good enough to be bred. The foal name possibilities seem endless, and might even help business at any food trucks at or near the tracks! My favorite idea is bred to a Kitten’s Joy mare, with the resulting foal named Kitty Burrito (aka, a cat wrapped in a towel so it can be medicated).
Just 8 for the Fountain of Youth. Sovereignty is one of them.
Hello Steve – I’m looking forward to the FOY on 3-1 at GP. I like the 8 PP for Keep It Easy . Corey Lanerie can break and survey the situation. KIE is coming out of sprint races and is tactical, so he should be forwardly placed. This is his first time trying two turns and going long. As you said, he should handle the added distance with his pedigree. I really loved his Ed Brown Stakes win last out. He stalked the pace from An outside post and drew away in the stretch. I’m glad Corey Lanerie is back for the mount, he know KIE. I bet KIE at 69-1 In KDFW4 and I like his chances in the FOY.
Luxor Cafe (American Pharaoh x Mary’s Follies (More Than Ready) wins the Hyacinth.
I’m NC this weekend where it’s hard to catch races live, but that (and the Saudi Cup) are ones I will not miss. In fact I’m going to crack out the laptop and YouTube that epic Forever Young race..
Enjoy!
I’m going with a Sandman — Speed King boxed exacta in the Rebel.
Baffert’s Maximum Security 1st timer looked awfully good today. Looked like he wanted to go around again.
I agree…better yet he was able to rate and like you said had plenty in the tank at the end. Great time of 109.92 for 6f.
Two 3YO’s of note one ran yesterday and one today at SA.
Formula Rossa a filly ran a super race yesterday in fact much better than the colt that ran today who was Tiz Secure.
Keep an eye on Formula Rossa.
I did go check out her race and she did it nicely and very quick. in 108.73 for 6f. One to look out for. Both horses won their races easily
I just looked at the forecast for Florence, Kentucky. 34 degrees for a high with a low of 23 degrees tonight. Maybe scratching out of the Battaglia is a good thing for First Resort. Weather unfit for man or beast. It will be interesting to see how quick he comes back from “soreness”.
That’s called winter around here.
Things can change fast. How fast? Just last Saturday at about this time, Godolphin looked to have four solid shots going into the Kentucky Derby. East Avenue ran a clunker, or puzzler, if you prefer. First Resort scratches out of tonight’s Battaglia due to “soreness”. Bad signs, man. Still alive with Poster and maybe Sovereignty. If Sovereignty can string workouts together. I don’t like Gulfstream for Sovereignty. But who am I to question Bill Mott? One of our best IMO. Have to get a couple of races into the horse. Results won’t matter to me as long as Sovereignty puts in nice runs.
I’ve been thinking about East Avenue and what could have gone wrong last weekend. Steve Haskin suspected a breathing problem and poster Matthew wondered if the horse bled. I thought the same things. However, after watching that race a few times, I’ll cut East Avenue some slack after coming off the layoff. He just ran into a horse that “freaked”. Magnitude’s previous best BSF was 80. A number that he ran twice. Magnitude earned a 108 BSF for his Risen Star win. Sadly, he is now injured. However, injured or not, I would wager that he never will or would have run a number like that again. Some will say that all he needed was that extra distance of the Risen Star. I’ll just say that he “freaked” and leave it at that. East Avenue had a perfect stalking position. Every time Tyler G tried to move on the leader, Magnitude let it out another notch. East Avenue might have had his spirit broken not being as fit at Magnitude off the layoff. Can East Avenue come back from that? We’ll see. He’ll need to run much better next time going second off the layoff to get me on him again. I like Brendan Walsh. Maybe he can do it.
I hope First Resort can come back soon. He looked promising.
Tommy, great comments! Several promising horses for Rebel,leaning toward Coal Battle. He’s an example of a talented horse without paying $3 mil.
Also Tommy—the one/two primarily ran on the inside—which was winning all day…they tooled that surface, and it played unfair to outside closers….(my opinion)….but that winner did look great, so there’s THAT!
Glad to see Journalism work today 5F at SA and Keep It Easy work 4F at GP in their preparation for next SAT San Felipe and FOY. I am confident both will run well and have big win chances. These are my two hopefuls in the KDFW.
Romantic Warrior going wide on the far turn could have cost him at crunch time. Forever Young is good and his win flatters Sierra Leone and Fierceness.
Speaking of Fierceness, will we see him race again?
JMac swung wide to avoid kickback—but that horse is a warrior, I don’t think he gave a rip about kickback he’s a win machine! Now they need to take care of him and bring him back home for turf success….
Wow! The Saudi Cup produced an epic horse race that will be remembered for years to come. Romantic Warrior -vs- Forever Young, “la creme de la creme”, battling down the stretch in a thriller. I’ve still got chills from watching this exciting finish.
Forever Young is a horse that I’ve loved following ever since Steve made mention of him in last year’s KD Rankings. His courageous effort in the 2024 Kentucky Derby made me admire him even more. Forever Young has a lot of heart and his consistency while accumulating all those frequent flyer miles is nothing short of amazing.
As for Romantic Warrior, he lived up to his phenomenal record and might well have won had he not been widest of all coming into the stretch. I’d love to see these two warriors hook up again in the Dubai Cup. YES!
An oldie but goody from the mid 50’s Mr. Sandman (before my time) inspires a look at Sandman in the Rebel Stakes. With all the speed signed up, his running style should bode well for a strong finish.
WP also exacta with 5-10
Correction – exacta with 4-11
I am over the moon about Forever Young–what a horse! What a race! And I’m thrilled about Straight No Chaser, too!
Glad for both.
Just watched the Jockey Cam for Forever Young in the stretch.
You can hear FY accelerating to go by Romantic Warrior.
Just an amazing race by both horses.
When the two of them took off together, I knew it was going to be good! They were as game as horses get. As good as Romantic Warrior is, every time I see Forever Young run, he moves up my list of favorites of all time.
Straight No Chaser and Shin Emperor didn’t disappoint, either.
Horse racing was alive and well today. What a thrill!
Very exciting day!
David’s that was a race for the ages, and the warrior who finished 2nd stole my heart! I bet on the winner, and was rooting for to lose my wager—very much like when Artogate beat Chrome I won but wanted to lose…..it’s 15 minutes after the race and I still am on cloud nine!..
Matthew, watching Shin Emperor winning from start to finish was the highlight for me. Ecstatic!! The Saudi Cup was a great race, I wasn’t sure how Romantic Warrior would turn on dirt but better than expected. I thought Forever Young would win he’s just looked better and better.
Reverse the surface to turf and Romantic Warrior would win easily. I wish the dirt horses would try turf like they used, last century. Ha ha
Run on dirt.
Like Round Table, Cougar, John Henry, Perrault….and the best of them all Secretariat!..
The Saudi Cup never seems to disappoint. I was a crazy person for an hour after Senor Buscador won last year. I didn’t get to watch this year’s race when it ran, and I knew the outcome – but it still gave me chills when I watched on YouTube later! Party in the desert!
WOW!
Forever Young nips Romantic Warrior at the wire!
I felt like it was come down to these two.
Congratulations Forever Young!!!!
Congratulations Azteca Queen (by Sharp Azteca) and Shin Emperor!
Correction Queen Azteca
Forgot Straight No Chaser
When they sold Sharp Azteca, I knew they had given up too soon! Bummer for us, stateside.
Our loss always seems to be Japan’s gain.
American racing seems to be all about short term, Japan the long game.
In addition to the Saudi Cup Japan won all three turf races yesterday.
$35 million in purse money—and you can only see the front runners, until the stretch???…
In Saturday’s 8th race at Santa Anita Baffert has two unraced three year olds entered…Tiz Secure and Voldemort. Voldemort’s ($700,000) dad is Good Magic (Curlin) and his mom is Beauty Buzz (Bernardini). Flavien has the mount.
Lead Pipe! Maldonado—wires them, pays good!…
Another doping scandal in PA, based mainly at Penn National. After seeing too many breakdowns at Parx, I stopped betting there years ago. Year around, casino fueled racing seems to breed this kind of behavior, and the growing horse shortage doesn’t help the situation. Hard to not be conflicted about the whole thing.
Todd. Horses treated ran all over, this is bad….THIS is why HISA is here, these guys need to go–for good.
David, Good luck to all your favored runners !!!
Betsy, Heart of Honor was flying home but just missed. Fantastic prep for the UAE Derby you should be thrilled.
David, not really, lol
I’m just kind of meh on him now because he’s really a deep closer/plodder – and those horses rarely win.
I think it’s ridiculous that people were ripping Saffie Osborne (for some reason, DeVries didn’t ride today) for keeping the horse far back. It’s not her – he was far back in the Guineas, and really in every race except his maiden breaker
I don’t know how long the UAE Derby is, but as long as Heart shows zero speed, and seemingly can’t keep up early, he’s not going to win no matter how long the race is
I’m not being pessimistic, just realistic
I’ll have literally just landed in the UK the day before, so I’ll honestly probably have forgotten all about it, lol
Betsy, enjoy your holiday it will be fabulous. I ment to mention to you earlier that Heart of Honor is being trained the way an European or Japanese horse is trained for a 9.5 furlong race re: UAE Derby.
Remember Forever Young from last year they don’t run races like your conventional US racehorse.
David, thank you ! It’s been a dream of mine, and now it’s just over a month away …wow!
If that’s the case, it’s stupid!
This horse is a dirt horse, not a turf horse – so Jamie training him like the latter would be ridiculous.
I’ve never seen one of FY’s races, but I do not think he is a deep closer…if he is, then he’s exceptional.
But… I don’t think that’s it. I read one article – don’t want to search for more- where Jamie talked about needing to sharpen him up, get him to hold his position better. He didn’t seem that confident in Heart for the UAE Derby – but I grant that maybe it’s just Brit talk
I imagine the UAE Derby will attract a big, competitive field. Heart may be a contender, or not – it’s too early to say. But he’s forever going to be at a disadvantage with his running style, so I’m just not expecting much
I guess we’ll see!
The 1.4 million 2 year old colt Devil Night wins the 2 million Blue Diamond Stakes. The racing at Caulfield is electrifying!!
Although it’s hot here in Melbourne the racing can’t be stopped with 3 Group 1 races. Headed by the 2 million Blue Diamond Stakes for 2 year olds, there is the Futurity Stakes and the Oakleigh Plate.
At Rosehill there is the Silver Slipper Stakes for 2 year olds.
Not much has been posted about the John Battaglia which appears to be an open race. In an open race just about any approach to handicapping can yield a dividend.
I came across an entrant that has a similar pedigree profile to that of the 2012 KD winner I’ll Have Another
I’ll Have Another –
Sire line – Flower Alley-Distorted Humor -Forty Niner – Mr. Prospector
Dam Line – Arch – Kris S – Roberto – Hail To Reason
King of Ashes –
Sire Line – Street Sense- Street Cry -Machiavellian- Mr. Prospector
Dam Line – Americain- Dynaformer- Roberto – Hail To Reason
Brandon Walsh in the trainer of King Of Ashes. Given the disappointing effort delivered by East Avenue in the Risen Star. The bran is in need a spirit lifter. Could King of Ashes be the one to deliver same?
He was a last out narrow winner of an 8 1/2F MSW at GP over the AW surface. His previous start was also over the AW where he finished a close 2nd.
The colt has exhibited ability. Although his pedigree profile is similar to that of I’ll Have Another. His sire and dam sire achieved far more than the sire and dam sire of the 2012 KD winner.
Further, King of Ashes appears to have a pedigree more suited to AW surfaces. Street Cry the grandsire of KOA, sired AW queen Zenyatta and Turf Queen Winx. His Dam sire American is a Melbourn Cup and turf specialist.
It’s not often a KD prep features an entrant sired by a KD winner with a dam sire who is a Melbourn Cup winner.
The share pedigree power this colt possesses and his excellent closing speed, makes his ML of 15/1 more than appealing.
I am all aboard. What’s the worst that can happen? After all my research he gets blown off the track. it’s the nature of the game.
I made a big score on a longshot at Turfway Park. As a result, I had a big bank roll to throw at Kentucky Derby Future Pool #3.
I Changed strategies and for the first time placed a wager ($200) on A11 Others. I was disappointed that the betting interest closed at $10+ for $2. Below are some comprising the All Others betting interest –
AMERICAN PROMISE – 5TH SOUTHWEST
BEAZA -1ST MSW
BURNHAM SQUARE – 1ST HOLY BULL
CALDERA – 1ST MSW
CAPTAIN COOK – 1ST WITHERS
CHUNK OF GOLD – 2ND RISEN STAR
GATE TO WIRE – 1ST SWALE
HYPNUS – 1ST MSW
JOHN HNADCOCK – 1ST SAM DAVIS
LITIGATE – 1ST MSW
MAXIMUM PROMISE – 5TH LECOMTE
NATIONAL IDENTITY
PRAETOR – (1ST MSW)
RAPTURE – (1ST MSW)
RIVER THAMES – (1ST AOC)
SACROSANCT – 1ST NY STALLION SERIES
ANDDEVIL – 1ST AOC
SMOKEN WICKED -1ST LA FUTURITY
SORCERER’S SILVER – 1ST MSW
SPEED KING – 1ST SOUTHWEST
TIP TOP THOMAS – 1ST HOPEFUL
VISSIMO – 4TH RISEN STAR
How many of the 20 above can make the KD cut?
What is my chance of making an ROI?
There is always hope. The audacity of hope.
Can the Japanese sent over another Forever Young to go one better?
You got Filoso…..
Staying on Coal Battle’s wagon in the Rebel.
Also like Admiral Dennis.
Yes Lynda, there would be nothing better than seeing Coal Battle win the Rebel Stakes. Great result for US racing all round. I also like Admiral Dennis, Sandman, and Tiztastic in the Rebel.
In the Saudi Derby, the Joseph O’Brien trained son of Wootton Bassett, Apples and Bananas, appears to have a strong case here. Shin Emperor in the Howden Neom Turf Cup looks too strong here while Forever Young and Ramjet might fight out the finish of the Saudi Cup and that’s only part of the card there. Can there be too much racing? Ha ha
Great weekend for racing!
The Saudi Cup especially.
How do you view the fact that he has to allow 2lbs to 5lbs to a fellow graded stakes winner and others?
I’m not sure how I view the extra impost that Coal Battle has to carry but I think it stinks. It’s a points race prep for the Kentucky Derby the weights should all be equal.
Agree Davids
First Resort has been scratched from the John Battaglia. According to E. Harty he was “stiff” after workouts Monday and Wednesday.
Not the type of news you like to hear at this period of time.
Grande, McKellen, Jimmy’s Daily, and Souper Times entered in 9-furlong allowance race at Gulfstream on Feb. 27 – The winner probably advances to the Florida Derby.
Souper Times owes me as he was my choice against River Thames their last out AOC.
Bullard out of Rebel Stakes. Spiked a fever.
unfortunate! however this means Admiral Dennis has one less to beat.
Thank you Steve for these Derby rankings! You are so right about getting to know these 3 YO’s. Right now I have my eye on Citizen Bull because I know him. Btw I read you are on the Hall of Fame Nominating Committee! I had a flashback of most of the horses nominated. Brings back so many memories! I have a special place in my heart ♥️ for Blind Luck who I simply adore, Smarty Jones, Game On Dude & Rags To Riches. I also like Kenny McPeek & John Sheriffs. I know the results will be very interesting. Thank you for all your excellent articles that I enjoy reading Steve! Have a good day! 🏇
Thank you Cara. Hall of Fame should be very Interesting this year.
Steve I am hoping this will be Smarty’s year!
Cara, I loved Blind Luck, too! Out of the clouds on any track with her broom tail flying! Her rivalry with Havre de Grace was one I feel lucky to have seen.
Admiral Dennis –
Debut – CD; 119lbs – Favorite $2.64
2nd Start – CD; 119lbs -Favorite $1.61
3rdStart – FG; 122lbs – Favorite $1.80
4th Start – OK;117lbs – ML 12/1
How does a colt that has been the favorite in all its career starte is listed at a ML of 12/1 with its lightest impost of 117lbs.?
Which notable horses has Admiral Dennis been favored against? Built winner of the Gun Runner & 3rd Risen Star and Magnitude winner of Risen Star & 2nd Gun Runner.
From a pedigree perspective Admiral Dennis should enjoy routing –
Sire – Tiz The Law
Dam sire – Union Rags
2nd dam sire – Cany Ride
3rd damsire – Seeking The gold
4th dam sire – Deputy Minister.
Performance profile –
Mid pack whilst cruising
Transition from cruising to faster immediate
Sustains stretch gallop with excellent stride mechanic.
At 117lbs, this Rebel entrant has the handicaps in his favor. He has the requisite mid race speed to stay close to the leaders and his explosive acceleration from mid pack should get him into contention early for his stretch kick.
He is my entrant to use in all positions.
Admiral Dennis’ sire is Constitution, not Tiz the Law.
My bad!
One generation off.
You ask how? My guess is the horses connections have wagered enough money to make him the favorite because his performances have hardly been of the standout variety that would warrant favorite status. Hence the 12/1 morning line. His last out was in pedestrian time, but you never know he could be ready to fire this time out.
I agree his last out winning time was pedestrian. However, there is a noteworthy contributary factor.
The colt switched back to is left led and that slowed him down considerably but not enough for him to be passed by the runner up.
If his stride mechanics is compared to those of Sandan, Tiztastic, M Road and Bullard, it would reveal he covers ground more efficiently.
This colt should never have 117lbs. But conditions dictate.
Steve thanks for all you do and how incredibly exciting you make the lead up for the Kentucky derby I just saw the Hall of Fame nomination list and that you’re one of the voters I’d love to see Smarty Jones in the hall of fame his popularity was Seabiscuit like he was the true Cinderella story of from no bloodlines to become the first undefeated horse going for the triple crown in 2004 since Seattle Slew in 1977 I know it’s a long shot but he has my vote if I could thanks again for all you do🙏
Thanks Nick, It was tough finally getting him on the ballot. But with a new committee member we did barely.
Smarty made oaklawn what it is today of all the wonderful horses he’s the only one a movie could be made of thanks for all u do 🙏
Thank you!!!
I was unaware of Baeza until I saw Steve’s comments about the colt. I just reviewed the video of the maiden breaker because of comments below.
Before advancing an opinion regarding Baeza performance. I must revisit a statement I I posted regarding BB being worshipped. I was reprimanded by a regular supporter of this space.
the 3d KD Future pool ran from 01/17/2025 to 01/19/2025. Varney an unraced Vekoma colt trained by BB that was listed as abetting interest.
Brad cox barn has produced several impressive debut winners – Tappan Street, John Handcock, Gunmetal to cite a few. Why weren’t any of the aforementioned Cox colts listed as an unraced betting interest? Varney was the 2nd unraced betting listed for BB.
The colt made his debut on 1/25/2025 and finished 3rd. In the MSW won by Baeza he was pulled up and listed a DNF. Why are unraced horses from BB’s barn afforded this distinction. It’s called worshipping. Obviously, some of the bb worshippers place wager on the colt as he closed @80/1.
Back to Baeza.
I cannot understand why this colt was highlighted. He won a MSW in 1:37.84. In his previous start he finished 2nd to Rodrequez by 7L in and 8F MSW completed in 1:35.91.
Using formula 5L=1 second. Baeza winning time in his maiden breaker was approximately the same as his previous race. If there was any improvement it was minimal.
This was an average MSW race won by the best of a modest lot. The colt has excellent stride mechanics but cannot be considered fast enough to trouble the top dogs in CA.
1:37 4/5 over a slow (good) surface—older horses went a second slower….he’s out of Puca (why he is being talked about)….When Brad Cox starts winning Kentucky Derbie’s they will talk more about his three year olds..
I think what is missing in discussion is the west coast contingency has a stranglehold of the completions from my perspective. It’s really deep from several trainers. San Felipe is easily the best prep so far YTD. Then it will be the Santa Anita Derby.
Competition
More power to you Jeff, but I am not sure how you can support your claim. Citizen Bull has all the credentials to support your speculation but the other California contingent don’t have a similar regime.
The Triple Crown races are all in the East so travel is a major concern even for Citizen Bull. Good luck but I’m a skeptic until I see the evidence in horse racing.
Barnes has traveled to CD already; I think Barnes, Rodriguez, Journalism, the Bull, Baeza and others add depth. I would be surprised, god willing all remain healthy, if one of those don’t win. All of them should become excellent horses.
Yes Jeff, but none of them are a shadow of what Nysos appeared to be at this period of time as last year. Even with some excuses, Gaming didn’t show up in the Southwest Stakes. They can all improve of course and win the Derby but I don’t have the confidence I saw in Nysos.
Best of luck though, the Kentucky Derby is always 100 times better when there is a star West Coast runner the East has to contend with. Mind you, there isn’t an East Cost colt I’m over the moon about either.
Davids, I have often wondered about the reluctance of the California based trainers, Baffert especially, bringing horses to the East for prep races.
If I were an owner I think I would want my horse to be on the CHD track at least once before the Derby.
Horses of different disciplines travel to different countries all the time.
Lynda, I tend to agree with you especially when they have Bob Baffert’s team to contend with. After Doug O’Neill’s success with Nyquist, via the Florida Derby, and winning the Kentucky Derby you thought it would open the flood gates but not to be.
We’re back to another heatwave here, during the week the high was around the mid 60s, yesterday it was in the 90s and today it’s over 100. Just spent 2 hours watering the garden and trying to save giant old Dutch Elms who are taking a beating this summer. On and on. Meanwhile in Sydney it doesn’t stop raining.
Davids, both Paxatunay Phil and General Beauregard Lee predicted 6 more weeks of winter. And so far their predictions are accurate.
Spoke with a farmer friend a few days ago. The ground in this region of Georgia is frozen, making it nearly impossible to use the seed drills. (He is a hay farmer).
Virginia Beach, Virginia got 10 inches of snow a couple of days ago and Colonial Wiiliamsburg where I lived for ten years received 8 inches.
There has been flooding in Eastetn Tennessee and Kentucky, West Virginia and southwest Virginia and western North Carolina that is still recovering from Hurricane Helene.
This Winter for our region very much reminds me of the winters from my childhood.
We’ve had a cold winter in Vermont–lots of nights in the single digits and wind chills below zero. No major snowstorms yet but a few inches over and over and over and that piles up. We’re supposed to have a thaw for the next few days, and it will be very welcome. I’m ready for spring.
Winter has been the real deal for SC, too. 36 with rain, then lows in the high teens last week. My forsythias have even abstained from blooming, and they’re always jumping the gun. We plan to plant potatoes tomorrow.
Our days are noticeably longer. I am really looking forward to the Daylight Savings switch. The 26 and 28 year old horses are starting to shed, but my PA-bred QH knows better. He usually hangs on to his coat for at least another month before much shedding starts. At least it doesn’t look like I’ll need to test the old-oldsters for Cushing’s yet!
As a kid…. I idolized Jerry West as a professional basketball player.
I can not fathom how grown adults “worship” a horse trainer.
Unreal Zany.
There is an entrant in the Rebel for which an important question must be asked.
Will the absence of Lasix negatively impact his performance?
Somken Wicked enters the Rebel with the best record of all for last 3 starts. His last three starts resulted in wins. There are two significant bits of information to note.
His 8 starts to date have resulted in 4 wins and all were achieved when he raced with Lasix. He won on debut with the RDM. His next 4 starts involved a listed and 3 graded stakes where Lasix use is either not allowed or ill-advised due to zero KD point with its usage.
After four consecutive defeats, Smoken Wicked won the following 3 races –
AOC -CD; 7F – 1:22.22
LA Juvenile STK. – FG; 6F- 1:10.43
LA Futurity – FG ;6F – 1:09.58
His last victory in a brisk 1:09+ for 6F was labeled handily. This entrant might just be the fastest in the field. In his last 3 start the 1/2-mile splits were 45.74; 45.07; 46.04.
Can this entrant speed be effectively harnessed to allow him a winning chance in his 2Turn debut? Dose he possesses a 2Turn the pedigree? I would content the answer to both questions are yes.
Not knowing how good this entrant might be and the fact that he has suffered defeats in all, his races contested without Lasix, make him an extremely risky wager. However, if he is deemed to be good enough and the absence of Lasix will have no impact. His 8/1 ML is appealing.
Smoken Wicked’s sire, Bobby’s Wicked One, and his broodmare sire, Street Boss, were strictly sprinters. In eight career starts, Smoken Wicked has yet to race beyond 7 furlongs, so it remains to be seen if he can carry his speed around two turns.
Bottom line, I would question your assessment that Smoken Wicked has a “2 turn pedigree”.
Sire AWD: 5.9
Dam Sire’s AWD: 6.7
Sandman is my pick in the Rebel, and I’ll throw in Hypnus as my live longshot, at 10-1.
Good luck with SW, Counter Point.
I really like how professional Burnham Square ran and his trainer mentioned before the race that he never gets tired even though I heard someone recently challenge his chances to get 1 1/4. Didn’t see his fractions late in the race. Really enjoyed reading your comments, Steve, especially on Sand Devil. Were there any excuses given for Patch Adams performance? Great battle between Caldera and Getaway Car! Will American Pharoah be a great damsire like Big Red? Does anyone know Baffert’s plans for Nysos?
Patch Adams stumbled at the break, had some traffic and farther back than he wants to be in 8th. Did rally but the two who beat him out for 2nd and 3rd much more experienced. I still like him.
Plus it was a weird (slow) track….nothing like Churchill, which played fast all year….I could see him dominating, at Tampa….
I am still of the opinion he is a sprinter/miler
And you may be correct…
I am old enough to remember when Braulio Baeza rode horses. Jockeys like him were few and far between. If his namesake Baeza runs as well as BB rode, we might have something very special. And if Puca isn’t broodmare of the year, she should be. I hope she is being well treated.
I was at Hollywood Park in 1975 (or 1976)….track announcer Harry Henson said “Ladies and gentlemen, I’d like to draw your attention to the jockey on horse number four….”….then he went thru the history of Mr Baeza….then the big cheer, for the tall-statuesque rider—days long gone, the stoic class of a Baeza and a Shoemaker…..never glad-handing their rides, after a win….times before footfall players would take a victory dance, for a successful play (doing your job)…..days of ladies and gentlemen…..
Sharon
I share your enthusiasm for Baeza and agree he might be something very special.
A very classy pedigree, top and bottom with a ton of stamina influence. John Shirreffs stated, “distance seems to be what he loves”, and confirmed the Santa Anita Derby is where Baeza is scheduled for his next start.
He checks a lot of boxes.
1) Homebred: Grandview Equine
2) Bred from the Mr. Prospector/Northern Dancer cross.
3) Speed: 100 Equibase Speed, 93 Beyer (last out race)
4) Successful trainer/jockey connection.
I’m looking forward to seeing how he performs against the top colts on the west coast, in the Santa Anita Derby.
Good luck, Sharon.
I couldn’t agree more. Braulio Baeza was my all-time favorite jockey, and in all these years I haven’t seen the likes of him since. I still remember him so well that when I see the name Baeza, it seems odd to think that it’s referring to a horse. But I like this horse–for his name, for his relatives, and for his performances. In a year when nothing seems to make any sense, I’m looking beyond the top tier of contenders, and right now Baeza, Rodriguez, and Sandman are the ones that intrigue me the most. I wish Baeza well in all his races.
The Sunland Derby. Exciting run. Hope to see them both in the Ky Derby. Thanks for this great read Steve. Again , you are the best. I felt like I was there.
I am still trying to understand why Journalism was elevated above Sovereignty after East Avenue’s poor effort in the Risen Star.
Journalism is a nice colt, but I have reservation regarding his prospect of finishing on the board in the KD. Below are the drivers of my reservation –
(a) Doesn’t appear to be very athletic
(b) Stride turnover rate is slow.
(c) Transition from cruising speed to faster require extensive urging
(d) Stride mechanic and big frame inhibit explosive stretch run,
(e) Vulnerable to high cruisers that can accelerate out of cruising speed and remain resolute to the line.
Sovereignty is a much more athletic colt. His stride turnover rate is much faster. He doesn’t possess as big a frame Journalism and has better stride mechanics to more efficiently cover ground. His transition from cruising to faster is immediate which allows him to past opponents at a faster rate.
I cannot envisage a fit and well Journalism finishing ahead of a fit and well Sovereignty. Why?
In addition to the above. One colt broke his maiden in a MSW, whilst the other broke his maiden in a G3 stake against winner that included Sandman and Tiztastic One colt was under the whip to record at of 1:43+ for 8 1/2F, whereas the other was under a hand ride to record a similar time for distance.
He has two impressive 2-turn wins, easily handling THREE of Bob’s….is growing into a beautiful frame, this is a serious horse….athletic? They aren’t running a decathlon they’re running a (two turn) race….I guess the athletic ones are behind his behind!….
Noted!
Why is it so difficult to understand?
The list is based on Steve’s observations and opinions.
You stated your opinion.
In less than two weeks Journalism and a few others will contest the Robert B Lewis Stakes. Emphasize your opinion by wagering against Journalism…..there, see how easy that was?
I will explain to you ZT because he just looks at where thay are ranked and dorsnt read the comments. I switched them only because it looks as Journalism is wound tighter looking more for a win than Sovereignty who has had p more than easy half mile breezes. If Sovereignty turns in a sharper longer work this weekend he could go back. It’s that close. So right now it’s as if Mott is thinking more of a prep. But I am still a big Sovereignty supporter and easily see him as a long term No 1.
Really like Sovereignty.
LOL
Jeff, guessing the ‘lol’ is directed at downs comment regarding CB, or one of the other two moving to #1. Funny!!!
Ah c’mon Steve, We know you are just itchin’ to put either Citizen Bull, Barnes or Rodriguez first but we will bide our time as that day will be coming soon.
My sincere apology if my post created offense at your end. I reviewed Steve’s comments but after revisiting some cold facts still I was unable to understand his decision. That is always a possibility.
Obviously, Steve is at liberty to rank the KD prospect as he sees fit. I am also at liberty to do a critique his list and make comments.
This an opinion forum. I am sure Steve didn’t approach his evaluation of Journalism in the manner that I did. We therefore will arrive at the different conclusion.
I am in agreement that the colt is talented. But provided some observations that I think could inhibit a KD win.
Going forward, you do not have to come to Steve’s defense. Our gracious host is more than cable of responding to dissenting views. I previously questioned his raking of Treaty of Rome ahead of Poster given the cold facts indicated he wasn’t the better of the two. Both met in the Davis and the truth was revealed.
Steve’s opinions are no more meaningful or meaningless than those of his supporters in a sport of glorious uncertainties
Going forwards you are advised to view comments in their proper perspective it might enable you to be less confrontational.
Further, why are you of the opinion you ae qualified to provide me with wagering advise?
A fact is information without emotion.
An opinion is information shaped by experience.
Ignorance is an opinion without knowledge.
And….stupidity is an opinion that rejects facts.
I’d hate to wake you Rip Van Winkle’s up but the Robert B. Lewis Stakes has already been run and won on February one…you have all been given an F for forgetfulness.
Nikola Jokic doesn’t appear to be very athletic, yet somehow he managed to be the MVP in three of the past four seasons.
Great analogy! Jokic is the epitome of “non athletic”. Yet, he dominates the hardwood most nights.
Since Oaklawn is freezing—a couple of shippers with good works are Madaket Road and Hypnus, an interesting horse that debuted around two turns and showed stamina!
Matthew, are they really going to race at Oaklawn on Sunday it’s still ridiculously cold then. Surely no one will turn up.
It’s supposed 57 degrees on Sunday at Oaklawn Park. Not exactly ridiculously cold.
I hope you’re right, Jay. The weather forecasts I’ve checked on the internet are way below that number but if you live there. Good news.
Well yeah….they will race—because they’re ready—trained up to be ready–if they delayed it a week horses would be kicking the walls! Oaklawn sure has had weather!….
Yes Matthew, that’s true but Oaklawn usually has a decent crowd which makes the racing more exciting. I can’t imagine too many fans braving that kind of weather. The empty stands at Aqueduct during winter are pretty unedifying.
I understand Aqueduct also has a hard wind, I used to frequent Portland Meadows….a practically all-sand track, that was made for rain—and it was usually wet! The crowds came….
Nothing better than a happy crowd at the races, they seem to love their racing at Oaklawn Park. Never been there myself.
I believe Baeza has to be on any who’s who list. 50-1 seems to be a great bet if he can qualify off his SA derby run. Great pedigree will run all day and trainer has won the KD. Jockey states that his stride is one of the ones.
David, Nelson – two things about Heart:
His regular jockey isn’t riding the card for se reason, so his jockey will be Saffie Osborne, Jaimie’s daughter
He’s drawn the 1 hole in a – for me- surprisingly large field.
I’m not feeling optimistic – I’m nervous, yes, but I HATE that draw. Heart will break badly, most likely, and he’ll be shuffled back, forced to have a very side trip…
Betsy, much better inside than outside, Saffie Osborne has ridden Heart of Honor before so that’s fine. Relax, Betsy, it is what it is. Fingers crossed.
On The Way, who is also in the race, is by Honor A. P. so you have a two pronged attack.
Yep, I meant to mention that she’d ridden him in his debut
I guess we’ll see if she can avoid a wide trip
Not really, lol – the other horse, like so many others, doesn’t belong
I care only for Heart, lol
There is quite a few in there coming from Seattle Slew sire line so there could be some comfort if Heart of Honor doesn’t win?
Not at all, lol….Slew’s legacy is forever. This is about HAP. HAP badly needs a good horse – he’s been poorly received at stud because of his sire, and his runners have been brutally bad lately. He’s not getting many more chances – even if Heart wins, even if he does other good things, it’s likely not going to be enough to keep him at Lanes End
Obviously it’s “just” a horse race….but even a good performance loss will be frustrating. I badly want Heart to win
Betsy, my ‘racing luck’ is spread very, very thinly this weekend. So many horses I want to see run well. I’m heavily reliant on the racing gods to do their bit as well. Fingers crossed 🤞
Hypnus has me intrigued for the Rebel. I really like the way he won his debut race in January going 2 turns on the slop and then hitting the jets to win by a couple lengths. Seemed to have decent late speed and McPeek referred to him as “a beast”. I wonder why the slow start on the Derby Trail. He’s the greenest of all other Rebel entrants.
A late debut doesn’t equate to greenness. There were no physical sings of greenness in the colt’s debut. On the contrary he appeared very professional and experienced.
From a DOB perspective, Hypnus’ foaling date of January 26, makes him the oldest entrant in the field. he is likely to have advantage in the physical development category.
My concern is he made his debut with Lasix. He will make his 2nd start without the RDM.
Real nice works since—he seems to be blessed with stamina!..
Here are the current futures, and ml odds for the Rebel horses:
1. Sandman 30-1 futures; 4-1 Rebel
2. Bullard 33-1/5-1
3. Madaket Road 35-1/9-2
4. Coal Battle 45-1/10-1
5. Speed King 45-1/6-1
6. Hypnus 60-1/10-1
7. Admiral Dennis 60-1/12-1
8. Smoken Wicked 75-1/8-1
9. Tiztastic 90-1/8-1
10. Innovator 125-1/15-1
For sure, futures odds will be adjusted based on Rebel results…
Sandman now 22-1 in futures…
Thanks biggy312, hopefully Sandman runs well in the Rebel Stakes. Good luck with Admiral Dennis as well, I believe you have some early money on him.
Davids:
Thank you very much, and best of luck to you too! I am not on Sandman in the futures, but have 6 futures horses in the Rebel, hoping one or more run well…Rebel also looks to be good betting race…trifecta could pay well, but not sure who to key yet
Best of luck, biggy312.
Godspeed on your surgery and recovery Steve. Also thanks for the tip on the Rebel.
Thank you
Rooting for Caldera, who got a Ragozin 6 to Getaway Car’s 8. Another great assessment of the bewildering array of Derby trail horses. East Avenue has whiffed again but all of the current horses at the top of the list have flashed brilliance to catch Haskins’ keen eye.
Consider Citizen Bull the one to beat at this stage but undoubtedly a few more surprising upstarts will loom ahead,
Caldera ran about a quarter mile farther than GC
An outrageous exaggeration! If you believe that, I’ve got some beach front property in Arizona that I’d like to sell you. Get real.
Michelle, rabid fans of only one or two barns hardly ever give other horses their due.
Troll-when are you ever going to give it up with you hatred of Baffert or Lukas?
When are you ever give it up clown with your hero worship of the two? Stay in your lane…..for once!
After two warnings you still don’t get it. You are a troll that trolls anything said by others on other sites that say anything positive about either Baffert or Lukas. Your name is on most on horseracing sites starting a fight with people that don’t agree with you. I’s surprised that Steve and this website still has the patience with you.
So the other site,which is a wild west show where insults fly at will is ok,right? Your memory must be failing from consuming box wine, seems others were warned as well. Which is it, your memory is failing or you’re ignoring the elephant in the room. My opinions are my right to express. You aren’t running this site. Get over it!
Looking at the temperatures for OAKLAWN AK for the next 3 days (day and night) it will be freezing or below and a high on Saturday in the low 40’s (night time below freezing) I will not even attempt to handicap or bet the Rebel. Horses can’t possibly get the proper training and it might even be dangerous for them to train in it. For me I am out. Race should be postponed. Waiting for San Felipe and FOY.
You must not be from Minnesota. The cold makes a body come alive. I live 150 feet from an elementary school, outdoor recess every day unless it’s less than 10 Fahrenheit. Just need to warm the horses up properly and they will get plenty out of their morning work.
I lived on a farm…we had a horse named Chico—whenever it snowed ..Chico would come alive and be galloping everywhere! I figured he had sore feet, and the cold helped….or maybe it was the high atmospheric pressure—
Again will pass. Track is closed for training possibly 2 to 3 days.
The morning line has been posted for the Rebel Stakes. The four top choices are Sandman at 4-1, Madaket Road at 9/2, Bullard at 5-1 and Speed King at 6-1.
This should be a very competitive race to say the least.
Sandman is my pick, and I’ll throw some money on Hypnus as my longshot at 10-1.
Tiztastic is at 8/1. Looks like a good exacta or trifecta bet to me. Add in Sandman and Bullard. Should be a very interesting race and I think some entrants are being too highly touted and don’t have the credentials to back it all up.
William, I’m looking forward to an ‘on the board’ performance in the Rebel Stakes that includes: Sandman, Tiztastic, Admiral Dennis, and Coal Battle in any order. It’s a prep race so just solid performances are all you need.
I wouldn’t worry too much by the ‘highly touted’ they’re just paper tigers.
I do not trust Sandman. He would have won handily last out if not for his horrendous break.
He reminds me of Enforceable another Tapit colt trained by Casse whom I consider to be a Chemical King. His horses have tendency to run big and then go MIA.
I considered Enforceable to be a slow colt. His explosive run from 11th some 9 1/2L off the leader, to win the 2020 Lecomte came as a surprise. I never tagged him as being able to cover 8 1/2F in 1:43+, But he did so whilst looking like beast.
That performance sparked serious interest in the colt as a KD prospect. Steve reported that Enforceable connections specified that they had gotten to bottom of him as yet.
His impressive Lecomte win made him the post time favorite for the Risen Star. He again closed from the back of the field to finish 2nd. As the 2nd choice in the LA Derby he finished 5th by 51/2L. That started a sequence of disappointing performances. His only win after his impressive Lecome victory was recorded in an AOC.
Aa yearling a bid of $775,000 was not enough to acquire Enforceable. His reserve must have been $1M, similar to the price range for Sandman. After Casse program left him damage goods, he was sold for $125,000 in a horse of racing age sale.
I request your pardon if I have no confidence in Mark Casse program.
The San Felipe could have Barnes, Rodriguez, Journalism, Baeza—I think Rodriguez might blast outta there and pose an elusive target..
Per DRF, Baeza is targeting SA Derby. Can’t wait to see how the 3 year old Journalism does in the San Felipe.
I also have a small piece of Caldrea and he ran a very good race and he can only learn from the race. I will cheer him on in the next race he will run in. “LET GO CALDREA”
I too also have a small piece in Caldera and am excited for the future, also there have been several comments on how this so far has been the best prep finish. I love the myracehorse.com program it gives me and others like me a feel for what it feels like to be in the game but I will say that this has been fun as hell.
Happy Birthday to one of my most beloved race horses, California Chrome.
He lived at Los Alamitos for a long time…WHERE did that come from, he has no siblings of any note….sire never won a two turn race and dam only won a $8k maiden claimer…and best horse in the world?….–he was mid-sized….but oozed class….some great days, at Los Al—the Sherman boys, in their silver Chrome jackets, watching the chestnut jog, on the deck of Schwanie’s, the track kitchen….
He didn’t become that good by accident.
Those were “happy days”.
I used to get up early to watch Chrome’s works on TVG.
He just seemed to do everything so easy and of course he had that wonderful personality.
I just do not think Chrome would have become the racehorse he did in the hands of anyone other than Art.
He was big enough when prancing back to the test barn on his toes after a win, I can assure you of that!
Correct!
Ms. King, saw him prevail in Derby, private visit at Taylor Made prior to Japan. Also, know the former owner.
Mike Relva, I was making plans with a dear friend to visit Chrome at TM when it was announced that he had been sold to Japan.
Lucky You!
Cannot say I am not envious because I am, LOL.
Thanks! Been rewarding seeing Chrome and knowing the former owner.
ooh, a horsey visit. How exciting!
Didn’t you threaten someone earlier this week on another site,Babs? Seems like it went something like you’re wishing a bus backs over individual- as well as indicating you will see them Tues. How are I doing?
I didn’t say I would drive over her with a bus, just that I wished someone would. She probably left out the part where she attacked me over and over for posting that I bet the Risen Star early before going out to dinner with my parents and then made fun of me and my parents.
You’re not doing well. Never were.
I happened to put win wagers on Steve’s top 4 along with a hedge on the All Others in the most recent Future pool. I guess we’re thinking alike for now. The Rebel is perhaps the most intriguing prep field so far. There’s ample room for an upset like what happened in the Risen Star and it’s hard to not like Flavian Prat aboard the Asmussen trained Publisher at a 20-1 ML who’s looking good in recent works. Put a line through the Southwest where he had a bad break and all sorts of other trouble. Getting thrown to the wolves in the Rebel with a top pilot suggests intent. Asmussen’s Tiztastic is another improver who had a less than perfect Southwest trip now sporting the services of Jose Ortiz. Horses coming out of the CD Jockey Club have a tendency to pop in spring preps. That would be a juicy exacta.
Has a maiden ever emerged the winner of the Rebel?
I cannot think of any and that’s what helps the odds. The J/T and pedigree too much to ignore at the price. I won’t be sad if I lose my $20 or whatever I play. Should be a good race with ample opportunity for big pay. The race has not been super productive for Derby winners, however. Sunny’s Halo, Smarty Jones, and American Pharoah are the trio.
BB’s last out race for Rebel winers
2025 – Madaket Road – 3rd Bob Lewis
2021 – Concert Tour – 1st San Vicente (G2)
2021 – Nadal – 1st San Vicente (G2)
2016 – Cupid – 1st MSW by 5 1/2L
2015 – American Pharaoh – 1st FrontRunner (G1)
2014 – Hoppertunity – 4th-Risen Star (G2)
2012 – Secret Circle – 1st Southwest (G3)
2011 – The Factor – 1st San Vicente (G2)
2010- Lookin At lucky – 1st Cash Call Futurity
I provided a similar summary ahead of the Southwest in a response to Bill Dawson and indicated he was brave man to use Gaming as his top choice. In Gaming last out race he weakened gradually to finish a dull 3rd in the Los Al Futurity.
I never got around to reading his reply or any of others associated with my response. But I can imagine that all were unflattering. Gaming finished a troubled 2nd to last.
Madaket Road was last seen weakening to finish 3rd by 6L in the Bob Lewis. Of BB’s Rebel winners, his last out effort matches that of Hoppertunity who was a weaking 4th by 7L in the Risen star. Hoppertunity squeezed home by a 1/2L in a field assessed to be not as completive as the 2025 renewal.
One could argue that Madaket Road had not persisted with as his 2 stable mates were 1st and 2nd heading for the line. That would be a plausible reason for his dull effort. But if his effort in the Bob Hope is revisited, it will reveal he was a weaking 2nd by 4 3/4L to Bullard.
Is Madaket Road a deserving 1st or 2nd choice in the ML for the 2025 renewal of the Rebel?
How much of a guide is the above information? I report you decide.
I am a fan of Coal Battle, but I am also a big fan of cold facts. His winning times have been very slow, and he is the joint high weight with Speed King. Both finished 1st and 2nd in the Springboard Mile.
Has there ever been a time when winner and runner-up in the Springboard Mile were the joint top weight in the Rebel? Without any research I can conclude it has never occurred.
Coal Battle and Speed King last out race was slow. They will now be allowing as much as 5lbs to some very talented opponents with a few being graded winners and graded stake placed. Of the two, Speed King is worst off. He won the SW with 117lbs and was in receipt of weight from Sandman and Tiztastic and others. He is now up 5lbs and is 7lbs worst off the aforementioned two opponents.
I cannot envisage either entrant winning the Rebel, particularly Spee King. But it’s a horse race involving rapidly improving youngsters.
Citizen Bull and Rodriguez might be able to win The Rebel….Madakat drew well, I consider him a contender…I like Sandman….
Admiral Dennis
Counter, not the least concerned about M. Road.
Concert Tour …. BUST!
Yes, one of many from that barn.
I wish that I hadn’t spent all day handicapping Saturday’s Oaklawn card. I play Saturdays, not Sundays.
I might still place a bet on Bullard.
There could be several jockey changes as riders already committed somewhere else on Sunday.
Good choice!
With Magnitude out with a chip, Caldera may have one of the best Ragozin numbers of any three year old with a six. Visually, he looks like a stayer with a long stride, and he
galloped out way past Getaway Car. He should get 10 or 12 furlongs this season.
Sure, if his trainer doesn’t break him.
What does that mean?
In my humble opinion, the trainer pushes horses too hard.
Steve,
Pretty much agree with you assessment as you are giving it a much wait and see approach. Was sort of surprised with Journalism’s latest workout as I would have liked a stiffer workout especially still 2 weeks away from the San Felipe , he pretty much did it on his own but again would have expected faster and more focused. Was much more impressed with Barnes and Rodriguez’s latest works Barnes was a powerhouse effort in the stretch and I liked that his ears were pinned back with determination. Rodriguez on the other hand looked effortless and smooth he was just gliding along….. too me both look like they are sitting on a big one. Can’t wait for the San Felipe. Sorry Journalism fans but he will have his hoofs full with those 2. Hopefully no hiccups between now and then. Also took a look at Representing (Behold the King) workout nothing special in the early part of the work but the last part he looked like a racehorse …. very determined before the jock shut him down.
I too have my skepticism about Citizen Bull to be able to go 1 1/4 miles on the frontend but I thought the same with Medina Spirit. Anxious to see the SA Derby with him.
Getaway Car had a nice win this past weekend but I too don’t think of him as a KD Derby horse. I think I would be grooming him for the Pat Day mile on KD Derby day. and if that goes well then the Met Mile. Now I know that is were Pletcher is pointing Fierceness. If Pletcher doesn’t get a race in him before that he (GC) may catch him at a weak point. But getting ahead of myself right now.
Glad to hear Varney was not injured in his last race (the one won by Baeza) Did not look good the way he was pulled up but Baffert said he was fine the next day.
Baeza looked very good in the win. Also glad to hear East Avenue came out of his race unscathed. Will have more on him in a later post.
No early thoughts on the Rebel Stakes other than like you said it looks wide open.
We know we will have one big change in the rankings next with with the injury to Magnitude. This is very unfortunate. Hope for him in the Travers.
Have a Great Week Steve and the rest of you all.
Wow, I ran out to do some errands and Magnitude is already off the TC Trail. I guess that happens more and more when they run that fast. Where is Dr. Fager when you need him?
Ms.Blacktype:
Sadly, we will never see the likes of a Dr. Fager again.
Horses today run one or two decent races & then they go on the shelf.
These blogs are fun & I appreciate all the hard work Steve puts into this each week.
Unless we can find another Fightline out there, horse racing has become nothing but a business.
Due to the postponement of the Rebel to Sunday, if were lucky, and with me being tied up Monday next week’s Rankings will likely be posted late Tuesday with abbreviated comments
Yep We are bracing for snow tonight and tomorrow and temps as low as 10 and highs of the 20s for 3 days. Hoping this is the end of the bizarre weather.
Hey Mark – I remember you from another site long ago. Hope you are well!
Good luck Mr Haskins. Always a pleasure reading your posts and your articles and the few times we have met.
Looking forward to your future thoughts.
I love Poster. He’s by the ‘sound’ producer Munnings and from the same family of Bernardini whose presence as a BM sire this year is remarkable even though Magnitude is now off the trail. There are still a couple that are still in the race. The BIG race is this weekend. I can’t wait to see how the Seattle Slew infused Coal Battle does. Right now he’s at 24-1. I might just take a stab.
He was actually No. 13 on my list.
Who is your #13 ??? Poster or Coal Battle?
Love the connections and love the horse. Hoping he can go gate to wire Sunday.
“Caldera” so called jockey Bejarano did all he could to stop Csldera from winning. Putting him last & 5 wide on the first turn losing 70 yards ! Then racing him 3-4 wide the entire 1 1/16 miles losing another 100 yards !! Having to move 5 wide the entire last turn on a all day front speed track !! Still took the lead & Barjano decided to stop riding him through the end of the stretch !! Barjano blamed the horse , instead of not riding him well in any part of the long race. ! Barjano needs be fired & not allow him any rides for my racehorse group !
Any real jockey like Irad Ortiz or Mike smith would’ve won this race riding Caldera by at least 10 lengths in hand !! D Wayne Lukas had Caldera absolutely ready ! Thankyou coach ! 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸❤️❤️❤️👍👍👍💪💪💪🙏😇☀️🌺 also thankyou Caldera for such a resolute effort !! A jockey should know to finish riding throughout the stretch !! That’s why he’s on its back !! It’s not the horses fault !!
Not the best ride. That 5 wide was awful and avoidable.
Fire Bejarano immediately !! Horrible ride !! Very avoidable !!! Everyone knew front speed was holding all day !!!! Placing 5 wide the entire race & stop riding down the stretch was horrific & clear grounds for firing riding any horse of Myracehorse owners !! Coach d Wayne Lukas & Caldera were robbed in broad daylight !! Coach d Wayne Lukas did an exceptional fantastic job getting our horse ready !!! Definitely a hall of fame trainer everyone always loved !! Knew him at Arlington race track 40 years ago !! Well loved man !! Nicest you’ll ever meet !! ❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸👍👍👍👍👍💪💪💪😇😇🙏🙏☀️💕🌺
It’s so exciting to have Caldera in my stable! I watched that race from Momnouth Park NJ and i couldn’t have cheered him on any louder! He made his owners proud! Come to think of it, something didn’t sit right with me with Rafael’s post race interview,. Yes Mike, he did blame the horse, hmmm. Let’s hope that Lukas puts someone else atop of Caldera next time. I’m hoping we see Caldera right up in the ranks with ‘Big Red’!
Hey, same here watched the race from MTH Caldera looks good and reports came out of the race and trip back home fine. Looking forward to seeing what’s next and where. If all good expecting one of the 200pt (100 to the winner)preps.
Its funny at Oaklawn this yr he hasn’t been that successful. While i agree about the wide trip , just remember that was his second race with blinkers and i think he was instructed to just get a good trip and get some points and keep him out of trouble. I think once CALDERA got rolling , he may have thought he was going to just roll on by , like i did and he kind of idled once he got clear and then rebroke. Would have loved to see him win but i think that experience on still a green horse sets him up beautifully for his next race. I think he has a bright future.
As a part owner in My Racehorse Caldera seems to be a grand prospect for the Kentucky Derby. I have been with horses since I was three years old. I worked with thoroughbreds in many fields. Showing hunters galloping races, jogging standard breeds. Groomed many lovely horses. Now because of M/S and many cancer problems I now can stay in game. Thank you all
Good for you Marcia. That’s the best endorsement ive heard
Congrats MARCIA , We have some shares in him as well
I imagine you’re going to be hearing an awful lot for all of us who own whiskers of Caldera. Thanks for the strong mention. What stood out to me in “our” race was how gutsy he is and he’s still a little green. He’s got us all Derby dreaming. With that stride, if he puts it all together, he’s going to make a whole lot of people’s dreams come trud.
I can see him making the Top 12 soon. I can’t say enough good things about him. That race he ran made mzeee a hugaww zee c fte fan
What happened? A fan.
Rebel moved to Sunday due to cold.
Sunday’s forecast doesn’t look much better.
Hey Steve , have you heard any word from Pletcher on Grande, he looked good in January and has been working but no mention of a possible stakes race.
Nope. Way too far behind. Maybe the Gotham?
Nominated to Gotham and Fountain Of Youth, hoping he runs
Dang. Terrible news regarding Magnitude. Hope all goes well for this rising star. And then you have Magnitude’s trainer, Steve Asmussen, who is the all time leading trainer with wins and that has won just about every major race except the Kentucky Derby and may have had a horse to deliver him the coveted garland of roses. But not with Magnitude.
Asmussen was unlucky in the Rebel Stakes as well with Tiztastic getting post 13. Let’s hope it’s lucky 13 in the Rebel with a win.
I have a piece of Caldera through My Racehorse. After watching his exciting show against Getaway Car, I’m hopeful for something similar to last year, with my participation with Seize the Grey. Caldera looked pretty strong and imposing down the stretch. As to the others, I’m just sitting back and watching things play out, and reading with interest your assessments every week.
Beth
Best of luck with Caldera moving forward. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Coach changes riders in his next outing, possibly the Louisiana Derby on 3-22.
That’s what I’m hoping. I think Caldera showed his class in spite of that ride.
Terrible news about Magnitude. Let’s hope the surgery goes well and he makes a quick recovery.
Magnitude off the derby trail with a bone chip.
Just saw that.
Chip in ankle, Dr B at R&R to do surgery.
No ETA on when he will return.
Lynda, if you are interested the Hyacinth Stakes will be run this Sunday at Tokyo Racecourse. It’s a prep for the Kentucky Derby.
umanity dot jp has an excellent race card with sire, dam, broodmare sire listed with further information to click on.
I’d search under Hyacinth Stakes umanity dot jp to go straight to the page. Enjoy.
I appreciate that tip too, Davids. Will look for it.
Good luck, Ms Blacktype. I like On the Move for the mile Hyacinth Stakes but alas, not much further.
Dang – Just in Magnitude off the trail, with a bone chip
I was tempted to write a sort of screamy reply along the lines of, “I give up!” But every year, it’s something, and I actually just came right back to “Eh, we’re used to it” by the time I started typing. At least Magnitude has every chance to both live and come back to the track! I really like the horse and hope recovery goes well. (I trust LB with the surgery like no other.)
Thanks Steve on your insights on Caldera ( we have a small piece of him thru MY RACEHORSE) He really seems to be putting it all together while still a little green. I think he has a great future. Love seeing Journalism at the top. He has been my top pick for a while now. I looking forward to Rebel this week as i’m hoping that Coal Battle shows what old school iron horses and trainers are all about. Love this colt. Great column this week, hope your eyes are back on track from your surgery.
Thanks Mark it’s not until March 10.
Hello Steve – Really looking forward to MAR 1 for the FOY and the San Felipe. Journalism should be primed for a big effort with his two turn experience against Barnes and Rodriguez. Glad to have bet Journalism at 52-1 in KDFW2. Keep It Easy is training well and should be ready to fire in the Fountain of Youth against some really tough competition. His stakes win in the Ed Brown and his Maiden win against Sandman were very impressive. Very happy to have bet Keep It Easy at 69-1 in KDFW4. Derby Dreaming is in full gear now. I love Keep It Easy’s tactical speed and style. He should be able to get a jump on the closers with the short stretch at Gulfstream Park.
I have him in the futures too Joe at 52.1
Good luck to Mark.
I believe that the Rebel is going to be a defining moment in 2025, regardless of who wins. Tons of real competition and time to put on their big boy pants. I am going with two who have lots of experience and will go the distance, Tiztastic and Sandman in some kind of 1/2 order. Bullard by Gun Runner will be close, but needs more time to mature and get his stuff in a group. Steve is right when he talks about how experience matters. Not sure how it was decided that recent runners are too fragile to do the schedules of past times. Maybe breeding for stamina and durability is a thing of the past. Sometimes losing is a good way to figure out how to win.
I am going with Coal Battle I think he is going to shock a few folks . Iron horse, iron trainer.
I hope so. What a great story.
Agree! I think it’s going to be an important prep.
I like Coal Battle bestest, but so far there’s a lot of nostalgia pushing me on this pretty colt. I love the way Briley talks about CB, and think it would be cool for him to get his first graded stakes win with him.
The Asmussen barn always comes to play at Oaklawn, so your pick of Tiztastic is another I like. Speed King hails from my part of the world. Even if EA went flat, I still want to see more good colts from that sireline, and I remain encouraged by his last out. Finally, I think Michael McCarthy may have something to say about the Spring with Bullard, who may be a back pocket horse for him.
Looks like a nice field in this one. My convictions are shaky at best.
I’ve always been a bit jealous of you, Steve. Getting all the inside information and having a loyal fan club champing at the bit for your weekly Derby list. Not so sure I’m jealous this year as from my perspective, this is the toughest group of 3-yr old colts and geldings to rank in my memory. First, Patch Adams bombed, now East Avenue has bombed even more spectacularly.
On the exciting side, Magnitude’s Risen Star was definitely the most visually impressive with numbers to back up what we saw. I can’t wait to see if he’s for real.
Actually I need to use more inside information this year because I sure can’t figure it out.
I love the phrasing for the comments from the Asmussen camp. Reminded me of “Bull Durham.”
I’ve no idea how anyone can figure it out this year. Magnitude out is a blow. I’m hoping there is still a star out there that I can truly get behind.
No kidding! It’s been like whack a mole. Being on an upswing has seemed like a curse.
And don’t give up on Patch Adams. I can see a big effort in the Tampa Derby.
I’m hoping we simply didn’t see the “real” Patch Adams in his last out.
I would doubt it
That should be a creampuff for him. If he can’t blow a Tampa Derby field away, he’s just another brilliant first time starter. Do I sound bitter? LOL.
Hi Steve – Great list and synopsis of your dozen. The upcoming preps are huge for entrants to accumulate valuable experience and derby points. Glad to see you bumped up Journalism to #1. The San Felipe will be stacked with Rodriguez and Barnes knocking heads with Journalism. Journalism has valuable 2 turn experience and should be primed for a strong effort. I would love to see him win, but a strong finish , picking up points, should set him up for the SA Derby where 1 1/8 should be to Journalism’s liking. The longer the better for Journalism. Happy to have Journalism at 52-1 from KDFW2. The FOY is coming up loaded for my other KDFW horse Keep It Easy. I bet Keep It Easy at massive odds of 69-1 in KDFW4. He is sharp in his works and re watching the replay of his Ed Brown stakes win and his MSW win vs. Sandman was very impressive. Dale Romans may have found a good one in Keep It Easy. I love that he is tactical and should get the jump on Burnham Square and Sovereignty when the serious running starts. Dale Roman’s believes the short GP stretch will benefit Keep It Easy in his first race going 2 turns. Maybe after MAR 1 , my 2 KDFW horses will be ranked 1 & 2. Derby Dreaming is a wonderful thing.
Hi Steve
Many thanks for your in-depth analysis on your current prospects moving forward on the Derby trail. I’m especially looking forward to the Rebel Stakes, which appears to have a very competitive field assembled. Hypnus, by Into Mischief, could surprise coming off of his impressive maiden win. I like the way Sandman was closing on Speed King in the Southwest Stakes and consider him the one to beat in the Rebel.
I like what you had to say about Sand Devil, and the two other New York bred colts, National Identity and Sacrosanct. Sand Devil is certainly a colt to keep an eye on.
BTW, River Thames is New York bred.
On a side note, Cornucopian, by Into Mischief, is set to debut on Saturday, for Bob Baffert. He entered in the 5th race, at Oaklawn Park. These Into Mischief colts are turning up all over the country.
The Rebel looks totally wide open. Only Bullard is in the top 12 and even that’s a reach. But we’ll see if Sandman is for real. I’m still no t sure how strong a race the Southwest was. This will tell us.
Sandman missed a work before The Southwest ..I like his chances Sunday….
Pretty good column for someone who’s squinting at the screen, Steve! This certainly is balm for my soul today. I just finished the last major know-how feature of my career (I hope and think — not sure if the newbies esconced to “take over” will really get our magazine, but then that’s not my problem). In some ways, the KOTD section was juicier than the main list. Susceptible to big Beyer figures (I confess), I’m inclined to take Magnitude’s runaway performance at face value. Last year I discounted Mystic Dan’s breakout performance and paid the price — at least emotionally.
Still, who knows what the Triple Crown Trail holds? Journalism is flattered by Getaway Cars’ performance in the Sunland Park Derby, and clearly Burnham Square is right up there. As for the Baffert colts, it’s hard to figure out who is the best Derby candidate. Citizen Bull is best when he gets his own way, but that doesn’t happen often in the Derby. He’ll have Magnitude to contend with now, and Magnitude has proven that he is faster when loose on the lead.
My wife says I’m writing too much and I agree. I got carried away. Too much strain. I have lots of stuff next weekend so comments will be extremely brief. Pick up again the following week
You get carried away because you write with passion Steve. Your like the rest of us on here, you love ❤️ horse racing.
Thanks Joe.
Weird year to say the least Steve.
An improvement of that Magnitude by Magnitude is unprecedented.
I can not remember a horse that has run as much improve that much and continue to improve.
Looking forward to seeing if Barnes will run as good going two turns, I believe he will. But my belief is in a normal year. LOL.
Journalism ran the best going two turns so far, in my opinion, but missing time might have hurt him, again in a normal year.
The next round will be interesting.
Loving that big framed Filoso! Can’t wait to see him race! He did just enough, last year—and returns with progressively better works! I look for large framed two year olds, I thought his November race–his latest—was better than looked—I jumped onto Journalism’s wagon right away—Filoso has had my attention, as well—and things are looking up for both!….
Steve, your rankings seemed extra lively this week. Either you were in a good mood writing them, or I was in a good mood reading them.
Hopefully it was you.
Nice list Steve and hope everything went well for you, floaters can be taken care of later if they come back.
That was quite a stretch run yesterday.
IMHO I think in the later part of the final turn, Juan Hernandez conserved Getaway Car and he did not panic instead slowly got going after Getaway Car and they pulled it off.
There were 6 two turn races yesterday at Sunland which kind of like gave pace handicappers a bit of an idea how the pace and final times played out.
4 of those races which looked on PAR and the other two (one slower in pace and one the Sunland Derby faster in pace), averaging them out the pace was fast and the final time was much faster, this gives BOTH of the horses vast credit.
In the Risen Star, the pace was fast over 5L, and given that East Avenue right behind the leader, his pace was also above fast for the PAR. With the fast pace, East Avenue should have tired, but he quit too fast. I think he is out of the picture for now, unless he turns it around in a big way in his next race.
East Ave is still a player.
Why is he a player still? He has beaten no one? Fools gold
Your agenda never changes Jeff. A lot of people say alot if things. Not losing sleep if EA isn’t on your list. We know what barn you worship 24/7 without fail.
EDIT: alot of things.