2025 Kentucky Derby Rankings – Week 5
There were 26 horses entered in the Rebel Stakes and John Battaglia Memorial last weekend. Two were scratched, one from each race. Both were in the Top 12, throwing an unsuspected curve into the proceedings. But that’s history and now the real preps begin this weekend, which should give us a definitive Rankings for the first time with no more guesswork. ~ Steve Haskin
Derby Rankings: February 25, 2025 – Week 5
By Steve Haskin
1—Sovereignty (Bill Mott, Into Mischief – Crowned, by Bernardini)
The truth is no one has stepped up yet this year to be considered a true No. 1. So being unable to separate Sovereignty and Journalism I am giving the former a shot at it this week and let them earn the spot in their respective 3-year-old debuts this weekend. Sovereignty finally stretched out to five furlongs for the final work before Saturday’s Fountain of Youth Stakes, working the distance in 1:02 1/5. As much as I have loved this horse from day one, I have no idea how sharp and fit he will be coming off a four-month layoff and just a handful of :49 and change half-mile breezes along with this latest move. I have full confidence Mott has him where he wants him in regard to the Kentucky Derby, but still not sure what his intent is going into Saturday’s race as far as going all in or just giving him a solid prep, which he could win anyway on class with only a pair of sharp two-turn horses – Burnham Square and River Thames, making his stakes debut – in the short field of eight. The other two serious threats are the stretching out sprinters Keep it Easy, making his first start in three months, and Gate to Wire, coming off a monster Thoro-Graph jump in the Swale Stakes.
2—Journalism (Mike McCarthy, Curlin – Mopotism, by Uncle Mo)
Watching his victory in the Los Alamitos Futurity, it seems like a logical deduction that outclosing Getaway Car and Gaming down that long Los Alamitos stretch is a lot different than outclosing Barnes and Rodriguez down a shorter Santa Anita stretch. And knowing Baffert for 30 years, when he is as confident in his horses as he is with these two in the San Felipe it pays to listen. I don’t believe we will see the best of Journalism until they go longer. But if he can shoo away the swarm of killer B’s that will be buzzing all around him on Saturday he could emerge as the favorite for the Kentucky Derby. McCarthy, who worked Journalism five furlongs in 1:01 in company, knows the importance of this race after having to scratch his other Derby hopeful Bullard from Sunday’s Rebel Stakes due to a fever. He would love nothing more than to halt Baffert’s planned massive invasion of Churchill Downs, at least for the time being. With a small field likely, he no doubt will be closer to the pace, and if he can get those big strides going he is still a formidable presence who is capable of asserting his authority when the real running begins.
3—Citizen Bull (Bob Baffert, Into Mischief – No Joke, by Distorted Humor)
Having already made his impact as a 3-year-old and holding the belt as defending champion, he still must be the target everyone is aiming at with the serious Derby preps approaching. With him having already dominated his opponents in front-running fashion and showing no inclination so far to rate off the pace, Baffert is going to have to figure out how to avoid a conflict of running styles within the ranks. So far it doesn’t look as if anyone dares challenge him, so we’ll see what Baffert has in mind for his strategy in the San Felipe without taking away the strengths of his other horses. The Bull will go into the Santa Anita Derby a relatively fresh horse, which likely will deter anyone from trying to take him on early,
4—Barnes (Bob Baffert, Into Mischief – All American Dream, by American Pharoah)
The main focus in the San Felipe will be Baffert’s strategy. By having Barnes break off six lengths behind a workmate in his February 17 six-furlong work, then quickly heading him on the turn and pulling away in the stretch to finish six lengths in front in a sharp 1:12, Baffert at least got a look at what he is capable of doing in the morning with a target to run at. That doesn’t mean we saw the strategy he will employ on Saturday, especially with the probability that the horse he would have to catch will be one of his own stablemates. However the race plays out, the key may very well be the pace more than who is setting it. There is no reason to believe Barnes isn’t capable of utilizing any running style. You just want to see him settle into a good stride without getting caught up in a battle and a blazing pace, especially making his two-turn debut. With him being the 8-1 favorite in the latest Future Wager off only two sprints, this should tell us if he was worth being shorter odds than stablemate Citizen Bull.
5—Burnham Square (Ian Wilkes, Liam’s Map – Linda, by Scat Daddy)
He worked five furlongs in 1:01 in preparation for Saturday’s Fountain of Youth. He has two main objectives, and they are to continue improving his speed figures and to out-close Sovereignty. We have no idea what Keep it Easy and Gate to Wire are going to do coming off sprints and if River Thames is as good as he looked in his first two starts and gets an easy lead and keeps going down that short stretch, then a fast-closing second would solidify Burnham Square’s position as one of the leading Derby contenders. Let’s not forget that he not only beat a brilliant horse in the Holy Bull by 1 ¾ lengths, but that horse, Tappan Street, finished 9 ¼ lengths ahead of the third horse, so we really don’t know how good this horse is. But we definitely should after Saturday.
6—Captain Cook (Rick Dutrow, Practical Joke – Pow Wow Wow, by Indian Charlie)
If you’re downplaying all the positives we have mentioned because of who he beat in the Withers, first off, who has anyone beaten this year? Second, the runner-up Surfside Moon has made six career starts at five different distances on fast, good, and muddy dirt tracks and on grass, while being ridden by six different jockeys. In the Withers, Surfside Moon’s Beyer number leaped 27 points from his previous high, and his Thoro-Graph number exploded from a “17 ½” to a “4.” And he finished 6 ½ lengths ahead of the stretch-running Omaha Omaha, who was coming off a fast-closing second in the Jerome and a seven-length romp in an allowance race. Despite being beaten almost 10 lengths by Captain Cook he still ran the highest Beyer of his career. Add all that to Captain Cook’s sensational “2” Thoro-Graph number and the Withers could very well be more legitimate than people think. Getting two months off after that big an effort and going in another 1 1/8-mile race should be perfect for him.
7—Coal Battle (Lonnie Briley, Coal Front – Wolfblade, by Midshipman)
How can you not be happy for 72-year-old Lonnie Briley and his one little unassuming Delta Downs horse who not only just keeps winning, but finding new ways to win every race. Raise your hand if you didn’t think Madaket Road, even after outunning all the speed and setting a rapid pace in the Rebel Stakes, wasn’t going to blow this race open after pulling away from the field nearing the quarter pole in typical Bob Baffert fashion. And on a speed-favoring track with a shortened stretch. Just as we were prepared for yet another front-running victory on the Derby trail, this time by a Baffert fourth or fifth stringer, here came Coal Battle, blasting out of the pack like he was shot out of the proverbial cannon. In a flash, he was all over Madaket Road, who gamely fought back, but Coal Battle wasn’t going to be denied, winning by a comfortable 1 ¼ lengths. It’s not every day you see a colt plucked out of a Texas yearling sale for $70,000 knock off a $650,000 Baffert colt with a clear lead? The bottom line is that Coal Battle is now five-for-five on dirt and has won four straight stakes. In two of his wins he rallied from fifth and sixth to have a clear lead at the eighth pole and drew clear, one time he rallied from eighth and just got up in the final strides, once he led every step of the way, and in the Rebel he rallied from eight lengths back to take the lead at the eighth pole. Oh, yes, he’s won on fast, muddy, and sloppy tracks at Evangeline Downs, Delta Downs, Remington Park, and Oaklawn. If John Henry can rise to fame from Evangeline Downs why can’t he? There is no denying this a fun horse to have on the Derby trail, which from now on will be known as “The Life of Briley.”
8—Rodriguez (Bob Baffert, Authentic – Cayala, by Cherokee Run)
With Madaket Road running as big a race as he did in the Rebel, you have to wonder what Rodriguez, who Baffert holds in higher regard, would have done, considering it was he who Baffert had planned on running there, but changed his mind after hearing about the freezing temperatures in Arkansas and the postponement of the race. So not wanting to take the risk with one of his main Derby hopes, he decided to send Madaket Road instead and he nearly pulled it off. Now poor Rodriguez has to go against Barnes instead, who Baffert has sitting on a powder keg and is extremely confident in going into the race. But he no doubt will be happy with a strong second-place finish by Rodriguez, knowing he is a very late May 20 foal and the best is yet to come. He couldn’t be any sharper with a six-furlong work in 1:11 4/5 followed by a five-furlong drill in :59 3/5 the day he was supposed to be running at Oaklawn.
9—Keep it Easy (Dale Romans, Hard Spun – Boxwood, by English Channel)
It is finally time to see if he is going to have that two-turn breakout race I’ve been expecting since Week 1. The Fountain of Youth sure isn’t the easiest spot to attempt it, but Dale Romans has never been afraid of any horse or horses, and no race is ever too big. I have no idea where he’ll be in the race or how he’ll stack up against several proven two-turn horses, but I do know Romans has him razor sharp with some blistering works and a solid half-mile maintenance move in :48 3/5 last Saturday. Even though he got a strong “3 ¾” Thoro-Graph number in his last race, the Ed Brown Stakes, I still feel he has been crying out for two turns. Having only two Derby preps and no distance foundation last year, and no starts in three months, he doesn’t have to win, but he has to be right there and show us he will be very live for his big 100-point prep. It wouldn’t even shock me if he’s very live in this race.
10—Sandman (Mark Casse, Tapit – Distorted Music, by Distorted Humor)
Although many jumped on his bandwagon after his horrible start, I wasn’t sure how good that field was and if Sandman’s big finish was more of a case of no one in front of him finishing. And now many probably will jump off the bandwagon because he couldn’t get closer than third off that fast pace set by Madaket Road. We’ll I’m being contrary again. His third, beaten 1 ¾ lengths, actually convinced me his last race was legitimate. I was impressed how much ground he made up coming from a long way back. After hitting traffic approaching the top of the stretch he had to swing six-wide and was gobbling up ground in the final furlong, gaining with every stride. Yes, Madaket Road set a very fast pace, but Baffert’s horses are so fit and fast they often set a pace like that and keep going, which is why his record is so good at Oakawn, where they rarely encounter California speed. It’s not as if they were backing up, as Sandman was closing into a strong :06 2/5 final sixteenth. So the bottom line is I believe Sandman is for real and will be a serious stretch threat in all his races.
11—Chancer McPatrick (Chad Brown, Mckinzie – Bernardreamy, by Bernardini)
He has had to make up a lot of time and quickly, and probably still won’t be 100 percent fit for the Tampa Derby March 8, but it was encouraging to see him throw down a :48 4/5 half-mile work over the deepish Payson Park surface, second fastest of 42 works at the distance. By the time they run the race we will have a pretty good idea who the major players really are and he should get a good test from Patch Adams and whoever is left in Florida. Watch for several recent maiden winners to show up. After undergoing surgery for an ankle chip after the Breeders’ Cup it would be a big accomplishment just make it to the Kentucky Derby, and it would be great to have the Hopeful and Champagne winner there just like old times. When you can close the final quarter in a one-turn mile in :24 4/5 as he did in the Champagne it shows he is a quality horse.
12—Patch Adams (Brad Cox, Into Mischief – Well Humored, by Distorted Humor)
My biggest take on the Future Wager is that Patch Adams could be the best bet as he heads to the March 8 Tampa Bay Derby, having fallen from a very live 12-1 second choice in Pool 3 to a virtually forgotten horse at 37-1 in Pool 4, based on a very explainable fourth in the Southwest Stakes. First off, he was coming off only his second career start, a seven-furlong maiden race, in which he ran what is believed to be the fastest seven-furlongs ever run by a 2-year-old, romping by 10 ½ lengths. After making a gigantic leap from a “9 ½” Thoro-Gaph number to a brilliant “1 ½,” a regression was inevitable even following a two-month layoff. But when he stumbled at the start and fell back to seventh, some eight lengths off the pace, instead of being right up with the leader who would wire the field, he put himself at an even bigger disadvantage, especially for a lightly raced maiden winner making his two-turn and stakes debut. He still put in a good run between horses while being crowded in the stretch to move into second at the eighth pole, but was passed first by Sandman, with five starts under him, including an allowance victory and a third to Sovereignty in the Street Sense Stakes, and then was nipped on the wire for third by Tiztastic, who had already won or placed in three stakes against the likes of Sovereignty, First Resort, Jonathan’s Way, and Sandman. He still was beaten only 2 ½ lengths. He’s come back with two half-mile works and a five-furlong drill, and if he gets his kind of trip at Tampa, and should that monster we saw in his maiden race return, that 37-1 could be the steal of the year.
KNOCKING ON THE DOOR
In Friday’s Al Bastakiya, the second leg of the UAE Triple Crown, GALACTIC STAR, by Improbable, took the lead in mid-stretch and looked to be home free, but wound up barely hanging on to withstand the furious late charge of HEART OF HONOR, a son of Honor A.P. who was coming off a second in the UAE 2,000 Guineas, the first leg of the Triple Crown. Both will try to earn their way into the Kentucky Derby with a big effort in the UAE Derby.
In Japan, LUXOR CAFÉ, a son of American Pharoah, established himself as the frontrunner for a Kentucky Derby berth by winning the one-mile Hyacinth Stakes, his third career victory in five starts. The favorite in the 10-horse field, who had already won a 1 1/8-mile stakes, raced wide throughout and swept by the leaders in the stretch before drawing clear and then holding on to win by three-quarters of a length.
Staying on the international scene, Japan’s GOLDEN VEKOMA, winner of the UAE 2,000 Guineas, traveled to Saudi Arabia for the Saudi Derby instead of staying in Dubai for the longer Al Bastakiya and took that big prize as well. We’ll see if they return him to Dubai and stretch him out in the UAE Derby.
The importance of the Battaglia Memorial was greatly reduced with the scratch of FIRST RESORT. As a result we had another inconclusive front-running victory, this time by CALIFORNIA BURRITO, who dug in gamely to defeat BABY MAX by a half-length, with the late-running MAXIMUM PROMISE finishing third. You may remember the winning trainer, Tom Drury Jr., who back in the Covid year 2020 inherited a colt named Art Collector and saddled him to victory in the Blue Grass Stakes and Ellis Park Derby. But a minor injury kept him out of the Kentucky Derby, run that year in September.
Speaking of front-running victories, Todd Pletcher sent out the Good Magic colt SKATE AWAY for 2 ¾-length maiden score in 1:51 1/5 for the 1 1/8 miles at Oaklawn Park. He did come home his final three-eighths in a solid :37 4/5.
A tip of the hat to Steve Asmussen. He lost Magnitude, but he does have the best maiden on the Derby trail in PUBLISHER. Despite being winless in five starts and coming off a seventh in the Southwest Stakes at 53-1, Asmussen ran him back in the Rebel and he came flying from 16 lengths back to finish fourh, beaten 3 3/4 lengths. Forget maiden races.
Saturday’s Gotham Stakes could be a battle of New York-breds with SAND DEVIL, who we featured last week and who closed at 85-1 in last week’s Future Wager, and SACROSANCT trying to make a name for themselves on the Derby trail. Don’t let New York-bred give you the wrong impression. These are both very talented horses. Combined, they are undefeated in seven starts and if one of them should win, especially Sand Devil, who looks more like a distance horse, do not take them lightly in the Wo9d Memorial.
Despite his inexplicably poor performance in the Risen Star Stakes, EAST AVENUE will remain on the Derby trail according to trainer Brendon Walsh. Following his better-than-it-looked second in the Risen Star, CHUNK OF GOLD, sent off a 43-1, is back home at Turfway Park, and will point for the Louisiana Derby.
It was easy to predict that Sunland Derby runner-up CALDERA would make a big move forward on Thoro-Graph, likely getting a stronger number than the winner due to his wide trip throughout. After getting a “14 ½” and a “12 ¾” to start his career, blinkers and Lasix were added and he improved to an “8 ¾” in his third start. The question was how would he react coming off Lasix in the Sunland Derby? He answered that important question by jumping way up to a “3 ½.” which was 1 ½ points better than the winner Getaway Car.
Now the question is whether he will react to the big jump and regress, pair it up, or actually move forward again. We’ll see how much time Lukas gives him. He’s a big strong horse, so if he can take even a small step forward or just pair up that 3 ½ after a tough race like that it would put him in excellent position to peak on the first Saturday in May. Wherever he runs next, whether the Louisiana Derby or a later race, expect to see him in the Top 12 as the race gets closer.
Racing historian, author, and award-winning retired journalist for the Daily Racing Form and The Blood-Horse, Steve Haskin was inducted into the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame’s Media Roll of Honor in 2016. Known for his racing knowledge and insightful prose, he has been an exclusive contributor to Secretariat.com since 2020.
Take it for what it’s worth.
It was reported that Barnes lost a shoe at the start in the San Felipe.
There were a total of 3 graded route winners, of which 2 (Burnham Square & Sovereignty) contested the FOY, and Journalism in the San Felipe, in this past weekends 3 Derby preps.
Sovereignty’s victory was the band aid to stop the bleeding of the Godolphin Stable after their lost of First Resort to stress fracture, East Avenue 10th place finish in the Risen Star, and Poster getting 3rd in the Sam F Davis.
Saw an interview of Mike McCarthy today. Didn’t know his house was in the middle of the Altadena Fire Storm. Sounded like his house was one of only a few that survived. There ur feel good story for the KD.
Good intel on the shoe; that does matter somewhat at greater distances. But nobody knows if it effected the race or horse?
So happy for Journalism and his connections. It’s not easy to take on Bafferts many challengers time after time and once again waking away the victor. Journalism is fresh and should run well 2nd race off the layoff in the SA Derby. I love his running style. He breaks great and is never to far off of the pace. You can tell that Rispoli loves Journalism with the hugs and kisses after the race. Rispoli fits him like a glove. The added distance of the SA Derby and the KY Derby will serve Journalism well.
Yes Joe… Rispoli could not hide his excitement and love for Journalism. The Italian rider must be dreaming of mending Rock Your World’s flop as the second choice in the 2023 Derby…
Also excited Joe, for Journalism and for his trainer.
Since a few respected commentators have given their top dozen I’ll add to the list….but short and simple.
1. Citizen Bull-the defending champ. Could change in a month in the SA Derby. But for now the champ and still the champ until beaten.
2. Journalism-what can you say. An astounding performance and kudos to his trainer.
3. Barnes-according Beyer this horse had a performance way, way better than the FOY or Gotham winner in a losing effort.
4. Sovereignty-won fair and square off a long lay off with a 98 Beyer.
5. Flood Zone-probably tied with about two horses here. A well deserved 98 Beyer.
Too much racing. Ha ha
In Australia James McDonald continues to dominate the Group races wherever he rides, it was in Sydney last weekend. As I wrote earlier, coming from the family of the blue hen mare Ride the Trails, there was hope that Flood Zone would do well in the Gotham Stakes. Thank you, racing gods.
Although he tired a little, the gorgeous Mindframe couldn’t have been more impressive on his return from a long layoff. Chosen the right spots he could remain undefeated for the year.
Steve, good on you rating the two most impressive 3 year old colts we have seen thus far this year 1. and 2. Mind you, those numbers could be reversed this week. Journalism’s performance was simply outstanding.
No doubt you’ll be shuffling your Derby Ratings quite a bit this week. It will be most interesting where you place the Baffert colts, as Todd mentioned earlier Barnes and Rodriguez look like milers.
Statesman and the upcoming Tap Into This are two colts that may still make some noise before the Derby field appears settled. Tap Into This coming from the family of Hellenic so 10f will be no problem.
No doubt, you’ll have too much to write about this week but hopefully, you’ll write something about Ride the Trails. Anyway, great stuff, Steve.
Hi Davids… Remember Signator the son of Tapit who was in our watch list for the 2023 Derby ….
He just won a Tampa Bay allowance on turf reappearing after more than 7 month-layoff. His time was a respectable 1:41 finishing in less than 6 seconds the last half furlong…!
Chug had him in top form for this race and I hope it could be a fresh start for Signatore to finally fulfill the promise he showed as a 2-year old…
Yes Nelson, I’ve been following Signator’s works it was pleasing to see him come back, positively. Did you just catch Race 11 at Gulfstream Park? The Tapit colt Fateful Lightning ran a very good second first time out. On turf and from post 11 so good signs – solid pedigree.
I hit the exacta with favorite Bulldoze in first… I thought the pay out would be better as Fateful Lightning was 16 to 1… Anyway, his dam Gamble’s Ghost (by Ghostzapper) was a superior Stakes runner at Woodbine… I would try Fateful Lighting on dirt though…
Well done, that’s odd, Fateful Lightning wasn’t taking any money. Yes, they’ll definitely try the dirt at some stage but he did impress on the turf.
General McCarthy was won the battles of Los Alamitos and of the San Felipe and is now in good position to win the Triple Crown war.
Thanks to his striking display yesterday, Journalism is now the fastest Derby hopeful and a leading contender to win the Roses. If the son of Curlin was able to run the last quarter in 24.68 seconds with the last 1 1/6-mile in 6.11 imagine what he can do when he is “fully cranked up”…
Borrowing Steve’s words, I would say that Journalism became a killer of killer bees and that Baffert won’t be simulating workouts in his races anymore…
Journalism will be the overwhelming favorite in the Santa Anita Derby where I can easily picture him rolling powerfully in the homestretch to overpower champion Citizen Bull.
Too many things can happen in the next two months, but what will still be true is that Journalism got the right running style and the genetic license to be a Classic winner.
Even Frank Mirahmadi should now conced that Journalism is the real beast of the West.
Journalism has beaten 5 baffert horses, exceptional.
Yes Jeff… Baffert must be planning an “exodus” for his prospects … specially under the risk of small fields in California wich cut the points by 75% and even 50%…
Barnes should go to the Arkansas Derby … the Wood, Blue Grass and even Louisiana Derby could be in the schedule for many of his other five or six Derby hopefuls.
I could see 5 horses again in SA Derby again; what a salty bunch would that be? Barnes should be heading out of town to Ark or Keen and if he doesn’t win or run well again move on from the KD
That was a huge Beyer boost, by both Journalism and Barnes—the question is—will they “pair up” again, or was it a one time number….if he can pair that performance with the SA Derby—then we have something special…..I was blown away, by Sovereignty’s closing kick—and Burnham Square got a 94 Beyer—improving 4 points, in his oddly run effort…..I thought HJ was spot on, in his assessment—Barnes ran huge—the other horse ran better, is all….you can say that again—rallying into an uncontested pace like that!..
(JJ)..
Sovereignty remainded me of Forever Young …
Matthew,
The SF kinda of reminded me of the chrome versus arrogate BCC. Chrome looked long gone but Arrogate reaped him in. JJ seemed surprised he wasn’t up a big margin with how great Barnes was running.
Hi Nelson, you have returned from the wedding feast just in time. Ha ha Did everything go well?
Hi Davids… my flight back to Canada was delayed a day … the wedding was fantastic … the 300-year-old church in Bohol is beautiful … the months of planning led to a great success…!
and my wedding speech turned out to be a very good stand up comedy with the topic of how one changes from the engagement and honeymoon times to now (after 37 years of marriage) …
Thaks for asking… I really appreciate it!
Sounds magnificent, Nelson. Good for you. Time is a strange sense, your mind can travel decades with a twinkle of an eye.
Likely starters in the Tampa Bay Derby (3-8)
Patch Adams
Hill Road
Praetor
Chancer McPatrick
Brodeur
Owen Almighty
I like Owen Almighty in this race. He finished first in the Pasco Stakes, at Tampa Bay, but after a steward’s inquiry, he was placed 5th for causing the jockey aboard Rookie Card to take up sharply. Just another example of Irad Ortiz Jr.’s aggressive riding style.
I’m wondering if Brian Lynch will retain the services of Irad aboard Owen Almighty in the TB Derby, or switch to another rider. We’ll see.
I believe the main focus in the TB Derby will be on Patch Adams, to see if he can replicate his maiden performance back in November, going 7 furlongs in 1:20.77.
Praetor beat the highly regarded Sovereignty back in September, so it will be interesting to see how he performs in the TB Derby.
At any rate, the Tampa Bay Derby should be quite a race on the Derby trail.
Irad Ortiz is at the top of the jockey leaderboard, way at the top.
BTW, I meant to list my current top twelve Derby prospects which are as follows:
1) Journalism
2) Sovereignty
3) Citizen Bull
4) Barnes
5) Coal Battle
6) River Thames
7) Baeza
8) Bullard
9) Getaway Car
10) Captain Cook
11) John Hancock
12) Grande
We are in agreement around the top four …
1-Journalism
2-Sovereignty
3-Citizen Bull
4-Barnes
5-Patch Adams
6-Captain Cook
7-Coal Battle
8-Burnham Square
9-Disco Time
10-Chancer McPatrick
11-Sandman
12-Caldera
Glad you had Baeza in your list. I would have Journalism and Bull 1 and two. Barnes has higher numbers than Sovereignty
Bill and Nelson,
I concur with both of you on the top four, just not in the same order. And I haven’t given up on Burnham Square at all; he was closing at the end of the FOY. I’m only confident that the top six are real contenders at this point.
1 Sovereignty
2 Journalism
3 Barnes
4 Citizen Bull
5 Burnham Square
6 Coal Battle
7 Flood Zone (he could be a freak)
8 Tappan Street
9 Luxor Cafe
10 River Thames
11 Chancer McPatrick
12 Madaket Road
Nice list Ms Blacktype … I see that you are going international with Luxor Cafe winner of the Hyacinth (30 points) … I hope to see the son of American Pharoah in the UAE Derby.
I also look forward to seeing Flood Zone in the Wood Memorial …
Thanks, Nelson. I like your list, too. When I drew this up, I realized my top six have already proven themselves, while we’re still waiting to see how others run next time out. I know very little about Luxor Cafe at this point (mostly that he’s won several graded races and sits atop the Japanese leaderboard for the Derby). He might not even contest the race. I thought it important to rank River Thames because he ran well but I want to see him run a mile and an eighth and show he wants more. As for Madaket Road, I’ve always liked him and he ran well last out. Not sure to do with all the other horses vying for Derby attention. It will be good to get Steve’s take tomorrow or Tuesday and where he sees things going from here.
Hi Ms Blacktype
Thanks for providing your top twelve prospects, it’s good to see we share positive thoughts on several of these colts, and their path forward.
Based on the lack of KD winners coming out of the Withers, Gotham and Wood Memorial, I’m somewhat skeptical that Flood Zone is a legitimate Derby prospect. But I respect your opinion that “he could be a freak”.
Time will tell.
Good luck, Ms Blacktype.
And to you, Bill. Unlike me, you actually risk hard cold cash!
Hi Bill, much respect, but Casse is bringing Sandman along using races to bring him to top form. Sandman can run all day and will not finish out of the top 5 in the Derby.
Jerry, that’s an interesting bit of information about Sandman. He’s definitely on my longer list.
Jerry, no doubt Sandman can get distance. He’s a very good horse.
Thanks for the information Bill…
Patch Adams has to win a record time to get into the same conversation with Journalism…
Washoping to see Filoso…
Bill, any word on the plans for John Hancock? I would have thought he’d be entered in the Tampa Bay Derby after his brilliant win in the Sam Davis. He’s had a couple of works since then so there doesn’t appear to be anything amiss with him. Curious????
New Kent, Virginia. Gateway to the Kentucky Derby? That doesn’t sound right.
Yeah. 🙁 From turf race to a derby points race, ungraded to boot. The winner gets 50 points and is practically assured entry in the derby. CD does it again.
Umberto Rispoli puts up some terrific rides sometimes. It looked to me like he thought he could take Barnes anytime he wanted.
River Thames looked like a winner in the stretch. I think Sovereignty wanted to win. He made up some serious ground on River Thames. The will to win is a great thing.
With the 100-pointers still to come, others will join Journalism and Sovereignty at the top of the class.
What’s up with Poster? Not going at Tampa next Saturday?
It’s easy to get excited about a couple of horses in March only to have them draw the #1 or #20 post at Churchill on the first Saturday in May. They would have to be another Ferdinand or Big Brown to overcome such adversity.
Worse yet, the #17 post. still 0 for forever.
Journalism, 108 Beyer, 110 Equibase Speed figure.
Sovereignty, 98 Beyer, 98 Equibase Speed figure.
Based on the fractional, split, finishing time and the speed figures that they earned in their respective races, it appears that Journalism deserves to be ranked number one.
Additional criterion to consider that favors Journalism, he’s bred from the Mr. Prospector sire line, vs Sovereignty being bred from the Northern Dancer sire line. Journalism’s speed figures have been consistently higher than Sovereignty in each of their career starts. Both colts are homebred, so that’s a wash.
Best in the West vs best in the East, which is usually the case every year.
BTW, I haven’t given up on River Thames. In his first test against winners, he was caught late by one of best deep closers on this year’s Derby trail. Will Pletcher decide to run him in the Florida Derby? I hope so.
Michael McCarthy pulled off an astounding win yesterday with Journalism…kudos to him. According to the DRF “McCarthy suggested before the San Felipe that Journalism was not totally cranked for his first start since winning the Los Al Futurity”. And his workouts bore that out. But give credit where credit is due. Journalism went from an 87 (LAF) to a 108 (SF).
Interesting take from Andy Serling….”If Journalism wasn’t in the San Felipe, Barnes would be the talk of the racing world, winning easily with a 105 Beyer. It’s one of the reasons it’s important to see figs before making final judgements. His statue (Barnes) actually grew after yesterday.”
When Serling spews his usual junk, always place him on mute.
Great day for McCarthy!
For sure.
Hey John
I completely agree with your take on Barnes, he has a bright future moving forward. I wouldn’t be surprised if Baffert ships him to OP for the Arkansas Derby on 3-29, to keep him separated from Citizen Bull running in the Santa Anita Derby.
I’m looking forward in seeing what plans Baffert has for Cornucopian and Representing moving forward.
Getaway Car, another Baffert colt, seems to have dropped off the radar, but looked very impressive beating Caldera, last out in the Sunland Derby on 2-16. He appears to have that street fighter demeanor, which was on full display in that race.
BTW, John, Getaway Car has not recorded an official work since his win in the Sunland Derby, so it appears he’s currently dealing with an issue. Hopefully, he’ll resume his training regime at some time in the near future.
My initial instinct was correct. SF top two threw the gauntlet down. Big time race and talent.
Did you single the winner? I did.
I don’t like to single; kudos to u! I had both horses in pick 4, which was a nice one.
Thanks! Single is usually the way I bet. Good look to you,also. Do concur with your comments that Barnes got alot from the race.
EDIT:
Luck
IF…..such a big word.
I see the bball bouncing high. LOL. 🤣
Freaking first time out, Umberto whipping hard top of stretch. 🤔
Journalism should be an easy pick for top ranking now. But remember that the top speed-figure horse rarely wins the derby. It’s more about progression. BTW, Journalism was an $825k yearling purchase.
Progression and peaking at the time the gates open. Now if Both journalism and Barnes progress, you might have an all time great KD
In a previous post I revealed that I am a 1+1=2 individual. That means things have to compute for me fully understand. This probably highlights just how limited I am. But despite my limitation, I am not oblivious to the fact that the understanding some issue go far beyond the aforementioned equation simple equation. Somethings requires critical thinking.
The recent deletion of part of one of my posts I left me to wonder going forwards as to what will viewed as inappropriate and/or offensive and what will not. If I am puzzled after reading the reviewed associated with a ranking. What are my options?
(a) Accept the rationale & ranking and move on
(b) Ask questions
(c) Provide pertinent facts that might have been either missed or not consider.
The above three options form the template I used after critiquing a KD list. I must concede many haven’t been receptive my critiques and as a result I have been banned, blocked and ostracized.
What exactly am I doing wrong? Maybe some types of written/spoken words do not fall under the constitutionally mandated free speech and thus censorship is wanted.
Like many I do not agree with all of Steve’s ranking irrespective of his supporting comments. Does he expect some of his rankings will be controversial? Certainly!
Is there a set template how to communicate disagreement? I doubt he has supplied one.
There is the universal template that common courtesy should be observed in submitted posts. I endeavored to carefully choose the word comprising my posts so as not to offend. But there is no way of knowing how either spoken or written words will be received, particularly if they represent dissenting views.
Three season back Smile Happy & Zandon, the #1 & #2 ranked horses were comprehensively beaten by Epicenter in the Risen Star. Both retained their ranking in the DR that followed. Epicenter was ranked at #4. The conclusion was there were no real #1.
After reading Steve rationale for Smile Happy retaining the #1 ranking, it didn’t compute and/or make sense. How could it?
Let’s assume Steve made a valid judgment regarding no real #1. The slot should have been left blank. The horse closet to the #1 ranking should then be #2. Given that Epicenter compressively defeated Smile Happy, he should have been considered to be the closest to the top ranking and ranked #2. But he was ranked #4.
Steve’s statement and ranking of Epicenter at #4 created the extreme confusion I was experiencing. I just couldn’t accept it and move on as it didn’t compute. My comments thereafter were viewed as challenging authority.
History will reflect Epicenter went on secure the Eclipse for Champion 3YO. I hold Steve to a very high standard. Ironically, he is that one set that high standard. I expect nothing less.
Coal Battle–was bred by Jay Adcock—-whose father Joe had 18 total bases in one game. 4 HRs and a double!
Shhh
What a team that was! Mates were Matthews, Aaron, and Spahn.
Just watched the replay of the Big ‘Cap. Great call by Frank Mirahmadi! I got a kick out of the fact that his namesake was in the race.
Journalism got a 108 Beyer…last time a horse did something like that was Chrome—a Derby winner…..Barnes got 105..
Wow.
Oops — my handle dropped off. Really impressive figures. Will be fascinated to see how other figs and the all important ThoroGraph numbers.
And Journalism is handier than Sovereignity, so probably would get first run. River Thames was not running well at the end, which helped Sovereignity. Barnes is good, but he’s always looked like a miler to me. I think Bob’s two best horses are the two maiden winners last week. Tiz Secure was not as fastas Cornucopian, but I liked his stride.
Sovereignty looked like he could go around again.
I agree Todd, Barnes has always looked like a miler to me as well. They can stretch them out for the Derby distance but it’s not their sweet spot.
There when Chrome prevailed in Derby.
Matthew, are you referring to BSFs in the next-to-last derby prep (e.g., Chrome)? Just last year, Fierceness had a 110 in the Florida Derby. And the year after Chrome, Materiality also had a 110 in the Florida Derby. Good thing that Journalism raced at SA and not at GP. Ha ha.
I said yesterday—if Journalism can beat Bob in his comeback he is some serious horse—Art told me Chrome was ready for The Derby after his San Felipe—he wished he could have skipped the SA Derby—mewonders how they will go,from here….I imaging his 1:42 1/5 is going to get a big number….
108 Beyer (Barnes 105)
Matthew, my comment intended for you above regarding Chrome.
Good insight Matthew!
I remember in 1972….the Strub Series—Autobiography, Triple Bend, Unconscious, His Majesty, Good Councel……well 2025 has Fierceness, Sierra Leone, Forever Young, Mindframe, Locked—I think it’s better!..
Most of the top 3YOs ran Beyer tops yesterday — even those who finished out of the money. Sovereignty, River Thames and Flood Zone all got 98s. Neoequos and Sand Devil got 92s, and Burnham Square either a 92 or 91.
The Beyers for the San Felipe have not been posted yet (they’re probably rejiggering them) but they’ll likely be similar if not higher. Locked recorded a 109 in the Big Cap.
The thing about Easy Avenue is that he is always such a standout on looks. I’d put Sovereignty as a very close second in a beauty pageant for horses.
I thought Burnham Square would be in the thick of things. Did he just have a bad day, or does he fail to class-up to the top 3-year-olds?
Tampa next Saturday and New Kent, Virginia the next.
I think I’ll treat myself to a $20 exacta box featuring Sovereignty and Journalism in the next round of Derby Futures.
Tommy, believing Burnham will continue on. He’s a good horse.
He won’t win the KD
I thought Burnham Square ran a sneaky good race—shuffled back and passed by the winner—he was trucking late…he will get the ten furlong, and will make the race….
Agreed.
Locked!
Pretty flashy win, indeed! Has me wondering if Gun Runner’s get will be like their Pop – best at 4. Some of his fillies seem to bear that out.
Does it pay to “pay” seven figures for a horse in the hopes of winning the KD.
History is not kind for such speculation.
Only Fusaichi Pegasus got to the wire carrying seven figures. But, adjusting for inflation, Majestic Prince, Alysheba, and Winning Colors were in that class.
Wonder where Kay from PA is?
Barnes ran huge today—first time two turns 1:42 3/5…..he got beat by a better horse—there aren’t many better…
He faced of the best in the West. Should he earn enough points, he will face a few others that might be better.
At this rate, BB’s best KD option seems to be CB.
Thinking you’re correct Zany. Interesting seeing how this plays out.
I think Barnes is pretty good….he’s over 1200 lbs—that was his first two turn race—but—methinks Barnes will ship—for his next prep….
He should ship and run against the Midwest horses. Clean it up or don’t deserve to go to KD.
AND Barnes will only improve. Scary thought.
A lot of times it pays more in the breeding room.
Journalism, WOW!
Watched a couple of videos of him the past few days and thought “this is the horse”!
Agree that race by both Journalism and Barnes was very strong. Plenty of time still to go for #1 and #2. Who will develop further and who won’t? Barnes will be strong in the KD as he will continue to move forward off this race. Long way to go for KD
Does Barnes have enough points to qualify for the KD?
No, but the winner does.
We have seen some dandy stalking trips in these preps. This is a heck of a nice colt!
I agree Katy!
Today’s races embody the reason we come here to read your Derby evaluations, Steve. Your #1 & #2 ranked Derby horses won…. Perfect evaluations. Thanks for sharing your wonderful wisdom. Cheers.
Well done Steve Haskin. You nailed it perfectly today…that noise you’re hearing is the crowd rushing to hear what next do you have to say next.
Again, congrats Steve.
LOL.
Great comment!
How exciting were those two big races? I am so happy for Sovereignty and Journalism and for their excellent trainers (HORSEMEN). I was just hoping for a good finish for both colts. Sovereignty went the final fraction in 31 2/5, and he wasn’t making up ground behind a fast pace! I’m waiting for the chart of the SF.
Looks like Journalism’s final fraction was about 30 2/5 or maybe 30 3/5.
The San Felipe was horse race time Those two will be tough in KD, Christina Black (who has a great eye), expects the San Felipe could very well be those two.
In the KD
Smoking: we will see how everyone bounces out of the SF for the SA derby
Hats off to Steve Haskin for having the FOY winner and San Felipe winner listed at number one and number two respectively. Now, the only question is, will Sovereignty remain at number one, or does Journalism take over the number one spot based on his impressive win in the San Felipe. I suspect Sovereignty will remain at number one.
The way he ran down River Thames was something to behold. Stay tuned for Derby Rankings Week #6.
Next up is the Tampa Bay Derby on 3-8.
Now wait—-a—-minute!!! Another 3-1 shot ran out of his shoes! As Barnes tended an uncontested pace—this Journalism…not fully cranked, according to McCarthy—made up three lengths and then won going away by two—WHEN do you see THAT, with BB horse to beat? All of a sudden there’s an easy–west battle that does not include Bob—and I have come down with a case of Derby Fever—and I’m not the only one—Aaron Wellman was shaking, afterwards!….
River Thames has distance problems for sure.
These days most journalists hide behind the word. Not this guy. He’s the real deal! The joy of Rispoli coming back to the winners circle was infectious. He sees the future!
Updated futures odds:
1. Citizen Bull 9-1
2. Sovereignty 11-1
3. Journalism 12-1
4. Barnes 14-1
5. Cornucopian 15-1
6. Sandman 17-1
7. Coal Battle 18-1
Rodriguez now 50-1
Rodriguez now a Preakness horse!
Bob still has three of top 5 favorites
Sure.
🐐🐐🐐🐐🐐
Jeff, realise Barnes will move forward. Called it and FOY today as well as Coal Battle last week.
Mike you’re on fire!….
Thanks for kind words Matthew.
Steve, your 1 & 2 road to the Derby picks put on great shows today. And a personal thanks for your pick in the Gotham. I played him on top in a 12$ .10cent super and banked 350! You’re on fire and I am paying special attention. Not sure what happened to Keep it Easy today. He spit the bit at the turn for home. Hope he’s ok. It was nice to see Dale looking so fit! I can’t call him big daddy anymore, and thank goodness for that.
Journalism really proved his mettle today. He’s a true Derby contender.
Way to go, Journalism!
I agree.
Awesome win by Journalism in the San Felipe. He blew them away. He’s your KY Derby FAV. Thrilled to have Journalism at 52-1 in KDFW2! Bring on Citizen Bull for the SA Derby! Go JOURNALISM!
Very happy now, Joe!!
With my added bets on Journalism, I have him at 51-1, and am looking forward to SA?Derby…!
And he did finish ahead of a few Bafferts!
We have a real chance to cash with Journalism Biggy. He’s the real deal!
Absolutely
Congrats to the both
Thanks, Jeff!
Keep him healthy and peak for the KD
Congrats Joe!
Thanks Mike. I’m confident Journalism can handle Citizen Bull in the SA Derby.
But u need the KD and not the SA? Dont peak too soon…
Yeah, but Bob’s loaded, right? Journalism wasn’t fully cranked today.
Bob isn’t going anywhere. Anyone will have to deal with his 4 horse brigade in KD. Wrote him off at ur peril… Barnes will only improve
Please quote me, wrote him off many months ago. The winner today won in a five horse field, three being Bob’s.
Agree Joe.
Wow! Who is more impressive Journalism, Sovereignty or STEVE! Great job sir!
Scroll down Jerry.
Hi Mike, I assume you are referring to Flood Zone who looked great running through sand up to his knees!
No, had both winners today for FOY/ SF.
Great comment, Jerry!
Barnes should be pretty good in the Pat Day Mile.
Journalism! Just WOW!!!
It appeared River Thames started to tire at the end, and Sovereignty nailed him at the wire. I’ve had both colts at the top of my Derby Watch List for several weeks.
I suspect both colts will point to the Florida Derby, which could result in the same outcome as the FOY. We’ll see.
BTW, I did hit the super for $269.00
Nice hit, Bill!
Thanks, biggy312
And congratulations on hitting the exacta and win wagers on Flood Zone in the Gotham.
Thanks, Bill!
Way to go Bill Dawson!
Steve, you’ve been proved right again with Sovereignty in the number 1 slot after his win in the Fountain of Youth. Although I don’t know if I can take it if he tries first to last in the Derby. Now everybody come back sound . . .
That looked like Zenyatta! Big frame….huge strides….gobbled up River Thames—going away—everything you like to see—and a burst like that doesn’t take as much out of a horse—he only “ran” for a quarter mile….
$8.40 for the #1 ranked horse! Nice handicapping!!
Sovereignty, hence at the top of Steve’s list!
Very generous Trifecta with Burnham Square running 4th. Had it 4 times 🙂
Congrats, Zany! I’m not ready to give up on Burnham Square yet myself.
Thanks Ms. B!
Me either!
Journalism prevails for the win later today.
Also, Mott for FOY!
Congrats
Thanks Zany!
Nice call, Mike!
Thanks Biggy! Will be lots of hand wringing tonight,especially with the loss at the SF.
Congratulations to Steve for picking Flood Zone, at 17-1, to win the Gotham.
Add my congrats too, Steve! I picked three of the top four, just not in the correct order. I almost get it right sometimes. LOL.
Thanks at least you got a thrill lol
Congratulations everyone!
Thanks even I bet him at that price. And he is bred to run all day.
Steve:
Thanks for Floodzone pick! Had win money and exacta…Thank you!
First thing I told my wife was I hope you bet him. Lol
Lol
Only because of your knack for coming up with horses that outrun their odds!
With scratch, San Felipe no longer a ‘win-and-you-are-in’ race; 37.5 points to the winner…
Why does SA Derby points prep race only have 6, now 5 starters?
It’s California racing.
Biggy, I think you mean, “no longer a VIRTUAL ‘win-and-you-are-in’ race.” Still, 37.5 points should be enough if the colt gets that far.
Agree
For Journalism 47.5 points gained should be enough to get a spot.
Imperial Emperor won the Grade 2 Maktoum Classic today in Meydan.
Second place was Artorious (ArrogatexPaulassivrrlining) bred and owned by Juddmonte.
American fan favorite Kirbarkhan finished 10th.
Valentinian was a very impressive winner of his debut at TB Downs…I’m so glad that Rachel’s Valentina has a nice one
It’s unusual, no, for Todd to debut a horse in blinkers?
Another one for Bernardini as BMS
Congratulations
Thank you ! I needs this one, lol
FOY: River Thames, (upset pick, Neoequos)
Gotham: Sand Devil, (upset pick, McAfee)
San Felipe: Barnes, (upset pick, Mellencamp)
On a side note, keep an eye on Valentine, by Into Mischief, out of Rachel’s Valentine, by Bernardini. Today, he’s set to debut in the 6th race, at Tampa Bay Downs. He opened at 9/5 on the morning line, but I expect those odds will drop to less than even money.
He sold for $1.5 million at auction, so there’s been high expectations from the get-go.
BTW, a special thanks to Matthew W for bringing clarification relating to the recent decision by the management team at GP, to move the starting gate back 53 feet in 8.5-furlong races, and 85 feet in 9.5-furlong races. I was confused as to what point the clock started. The “run-up” distance seems arbitrary, and not a true reflection of the fractions, split times and final time, IMO.
Valentinian rated off the pace, to win going away, by 3 lengths, in a final time of 1:44.16.
A very impressive performance by yet another Into Mischief colt.
So many good races today I’ll just concentrate on the biggest.
Gotham: Sand Devil, My Mitole, Flood Zone
Gulfstream Park Mile: Mindframe, Encino
Fountain of Youth: Burnham Square, River Thames, Sovereignty
San Felipe: Barnes, Rodriguez, Journalism
Santa Anita H’cap: Hit Show to upset Locked
Grande got an 87 Beyer for his allowance victory Thursday.
Shout out for Betsy —
Meritorious, an unraced son of Honor A.P. and a half-brother to Saratoga Special winner Rhyme Schemes, debuts today in a MSW at Gulfsteam. Juicy ML odds of 12-1. Post time is 2:02 for that one.
Hi Ms. Blacktype – thanks!
I’ve been following him for many months – he was close to a race late summer, but they gave him time off
Really rooting hard for this one !
Good luck to both of you!
The Fountain of Youth is down to just six horses.
I believe in the San Felipe that the two turn experience for Journalism will be the difference. I like Speak it Easy to upset in the FOY. Fun day of racing ahead.
Edit, Keep It Easy to upset in the FOY.
Journalism has filled out some! He’s not fully cranked, Barnes will be tough….today—
We have a lot to look forward to this afternoon. In a year when very little has made sense, today we should learn something.
In the Fountain of Youth I’m picking Sovereignty. I’m not on the bandwagon for River Thames or Burnham Square–not yet, anyway. I need to see more of them, but I like Sovereignty now.
I’ve liked Rodriguez ever since he broke his maiden, and the San Felipe is a chance for him to really prove himself. I’ll be cheering for him.
I don’t have strong feelings about the Gotham but I’m picking Sand Devil.
Good luck to everyone. We’re bound to have some really exciting races today. Enjoy them!
Journalism is a very impressive looking colt. Balanced, beautifully conditioned.
Just watched a you tube video of Zenyatta’s last foal, Nymeu (hope I spelled that correctly) at Mayberry’s Training Center.
I can see both Zenyatta and War Front in her.
She is lovely, moves nicely across the track, said to be very intelligent.
Always thought War Front was the sire should have been bred too.
Such a shame the colt by War Front did not make it and that the filly by him suffered a fatal accident at around 9 months.
I hope this one actually makes it to the starting gate. I know as fans we don’t get all the information but it was extremely disappointing as a fan to watch Zellda and Zilka train and breeze for years and never actually make a start.
They also seemed keen on the War Front pairing but after the first and second foals both passed away, it seemed cursed. I’m surprised they tried it again but hopefully third time’s the charm and this one proves why they kept trying. In the video they kept saying “maybe Zenyatta saved the best for last” – well that was always her running style, so it would certainly be on brand for her!
Many haven’t accomplished one per-cent as much in a lifetime as Shirreffs. A lot say alot of things,many instances without any merit.
Is she doesn’t, Rome won’t burn.
Someone is suing a jockey for a “poor ride”….I cannot believe the judge will let that proceed….
In 1973 at Del Mar they misjudged the win photo—gave it to the wrong horse and THAT was upheld!
But that rider has been cited twice for not riding his horse to the finish, inclucing this race. Doesn’t bode well for his career.
There’s more to the story than a brief sentence that a jockey is being sued by “someone” for a “poor ride”.
That someone is the ownership group. The jockey’s action cost them $47,460 of purse money plus $3,000 for state incentives for breeders.
Also, this the second time said jockey has been involved in a similar situation where he eased up his mount before the finish line and he was fined and suspended. Apparently, he did not learn from his first “mistake”.
It’s quite odd to see how certain people supported Bob Baffert’s many law suits when he caught caught redhanded, yet the same people criticize this owner for wanting justice.
Agree.
I hope they win… 2nd time he has done it
Well Steve the word is out on Ferocious …. He is off the KD Trail.. Torn muscle. Owner said it happened during the Holy Bull. Hope to be back racing late summer or early fall. Tough break.
I have been in contact with the owner the past week when they were running tests on him
Yep, remember your post saying something was up but you couldn’t say anything yet.
Representing, the $4.0 million dollar colt, by Curlin, out of Beholder, by Henny Hughes has been working steadily for Bob Baffert. However, he hasn’t worked since 2-16, going 4F in 47.40, so it appears he’s overdue for his next scheduled work. Needless to say, Representing is getting a late start for his debut race, and by not working since 2-16, it appears it will be sometime before we see him debut.
If there’s anyone out there that can provide information on his missed work, I’d appreciate hearing from you.
Thanks.
Saw that Bill, Missed work not a good sign but maybe he is sick ,…. Baffert’s barn is right next to Mandella’s who has had to take several of his horse out of training due to being sick. Hopefully nothing serious
Thanks for the reply, Downthestretch.
Yes, that could be the case. Now and then, Steve is in contact with Baffert, who might shed some light on Representing’s missed work.
Stay tuned.
NO, it is most certainly NOT the case.
Gotham – Sacrosanct and Garamond
FOY – Burnham Square and Sovereignty
San Felipe – I think Barnes will prevail
Santa Anita Handicap – Locked
Gulfstream Park Mile – Mindframe
Joseph Saffie seems to be on a roll. Think his entries will do well this weekend.
Secret Squirrel (By Simulation out of Trigger Point by Double Trigger) suffered a lumbar vertebra fracture when he he fell in a race in Newberry. At least six months stall rest to heal, future in racing is unknown. He is a fan favorite in England with his distinctive chestnut coat and flaxen mane and tail comes from Double Trigger and Trigger Point. Chestnut coat and flaxen mane and tail is rare among Thoroughbreds. Best wishes for a full recovery.
“The Bond: Two Hearts—One Spirit” is a monument that celebrates the extraordinary connection between Cody Dorman and Cody’s Wish, a truly special racehorse. Sculptor Jocelyn Russell has been chosen to capture the remarkable bond they shared. The image of Cody’s Wish placing his head in Cody Dorman’s lap—not just once, but every time they met—ignited a spark in both of their hearts. This monument will allow everyone to be inspired and experience that same feeling of connection.
The monument will be designed to allow people in wheelchairs to roll up and place their hands on the horse’s nose, looking into the eyes of this remarkable animal and experiencing the same connection that Cody and Cody’s Wish shared.” (Taken from KHP website)
Jocelyn Russell is the sculptor who also sculpted “Secretariat- Racing Into History” and the “Sgt Reckless” monument.
Good luck everyone on your selections and safe racing for all.
Meanwhile…A guest essay today at the NY Times: “Dead Athletes. Empty Stands, Why Are We Paying Billions to Keep This Sport Alive?”
A sport that employs more people than the big three sports combined..
Not when you factor in the jobs at all the stadiums and the people making the logo materials…
Tony D, the NY Times stopped covering horse racing in a positive light a while ago and have since published only negative news on the industry led by Joe Drape.
The biggest days seem bigger than ever. With big crowds on those days.
Weekday racing isn’t as interesting. Still, a great sport searching for the right balance in an ever-changing world.
This author is a total hack, NYT is dead anyhow. But negativity will always be there, horse racing needs to have their own social media to defeat that…
You are the total hack: the reporter is telling you the truth about what is happening, and like a magat, you cling to your old worn-out lies…
I saw the NY Times story (and that it was a 17 minute read!) Newspapers have had it in for horse racing, almost from the inception of the sport in the 1860s. (Horace Greeley was an early opponent.) In the late 19th century, the concern was that the POOR would risk their paychecks to the lure of Demon Gambling. Very little of the opposition was concern for the horses, so you have to ask, what exactly about the sport makes do-gooders so angry?
Racing’s opponents almost got their way early in the history of the sport — first in the 1890s, when New Jersey banned racing at the first iteration of the beautiful and flourishing Monmouth Park, and in New York itself from 1908 to 1912. Betless racing actually survived at New York tracks, including Saratoga, between 1909 to 1910, then shut down for two years until Charles Evans Hughes (later a Supreme Court justice) left the governorship. One of the intriguing aspects of the reinstatement of racing in New York was that the bookie system endured under the stands at tracks like Belmont, old Aqueduct, Empire, and others until 1949. Hand to hand betting, with a real racing sharp. Them’s the good ol’ days.
I still think Smooth Cruisin is a nice horse…30-1 in San Felipe, two very nice one mile works…
Hey Matt,
Thanks for pointing the works out on Smooth Cruisin (SC). I have not seen a workout pattern like this since Charlie Whittingham. I went to XBTV to see his latest work and came away with mixed feelings about it. The work starts with him alone and he is moving really nice then he comes up next to another horse who joins his work. SC jock seems to put on the brakes on him so that they could work together then they get to the stretch were SC jockey starts getting into him and then both are working together and then the other Jockey lets up on his horse so that SC could pass him up. But strange thing is SC never was able to pass him. His previous races are nice. Just don’t know how good he really is.. With the works his trainer has been giving him he definitely should not be short but is he talented enough???? We will know after Saturday !!!
He’s going to be in the rear echelon…long works can take some of the speed out—I like him but the top three are very nice–probably way too tough…but if you want points out here you gotta go thru Bob!…
So True
One other thing Whittingham would have done is 3 or 4 days before the race would have given a 3 or 4 furlong blowout
I’m old enough to remember a 3fur blowout on the DAY OF the race!…
Hey, me too … Headley really is doing a good job with him. I would love to see that upset today!
Yes,he also for upset.
Crazy! Corucopian now 15-1 3rd choice in futures!
Biggy312, where are you seeing this line? I hear caesars vegas is the only place you can do future wagers oitside the big 6 pools. I have a friend in vegas next week and was hoping for 25-1 on cornucopian…may float up after the san felipe today.
Hi Russ:
I get the futures line from Caesar’s/William Hill app: I live in Las Vegas, and I can bet often, sometimes even before the lines adjust! I just don’t have access to the Churchill Downs futures pools here…
Thanks Biggy. Hmmm…so Bob nominated Gaming, Rodriguez, and Cornucopian for the Va derby. I think Bob decides between Rodriguez and Gaming and one of them goes with Cornucopian to Va. So if you get Cornucopian at say 20-1 prior to then, might be a good bet if he stretches out well. Do the odds change every day on the Caesars book?
Well i guess it coukd be gaming and cornucopian…..rodriguez on 2 weeks rest not likely
Betting strategy in the three Derby Prep races:
FOY, key River Thames and Sovereignty on top in the first two slots, with Gate to Wire, Burham Square, McKellen, Neoequos and Keep it Easy in the third and fourth slots.
That is: 2,6/2,6/ 1,3,4,7,8/ 1,3,4,7,8 ($1.00 Superfecta P/W wager)
In an additional $1.00 Superfecta P/W wager, I’ll flip that over. using 5 horses in the first slot.
That is: 1,3,4,7,8/ 2,6/ 2,6/ 1,3,4,7,8. Cost: $40.00 on each wager.
San Felipe Stakes: I’ll Key Barnes on top in the first slot, with Journalism and Rodriguez underneath in the 2nd and 3rd slots, in a $40.00 Trifecta P/W wager.
Gotham Stakes: I play a straight $50.00 Exacta, using Sand Devil on top of Sacrosanct.
Safe trips to all.
Watch out for Flood Zone. Coming off a monster race at GP and 3 1/2 Thoro-Graph number. No idea how good he is but bred to go long. If Sand Devil wins I think he is a legit Derby horse. Same goes for Flood Zone
Hi Steve
Thanks for the heads up on Flood Zone. His dam side reflects significant class and stamina influence and his late pace figure of 97 is second to Sand Devil’s 111.
I like the way Sand Devil fought back against National Identity in winning the Damon Runyon Stakes. I remain convinced that Sand Devil is the horse to beat in the Gotham. I would love to see Linda Rice have a horse in the Derby starting gate.
She’s certainly paid her dues, and one of the top trainers at Aqueduct year after year.
Would love to see Statesman show up in the Wood. Shug will never do it, but man that kick is something else.
The fractions were modest to slow. If he had to chase fast fractions, he would have used up a lot more energy earlier and that cold compromised his closing burst.
If he didn’t run with Lasix. He could have returned in the TBD off short rest. He is undefeated at the Track.
I’m anxious to seeing how Grande performs in the 8th race at GP, coming up in a few minutes.
Grande brought the Smoke Show defeating Jimmy’s Daily. 1 1/8 miles in 1:50.49
Hey Derbyologist
Did you notice the starting gate was moved back 53 feet from where it is normally positioned? In which case, the horses went further than 1 1/8 miles, and the finishing time could have been about one second faster. Possibly around 1:49 and change. Just something to ponder.
Bill, the drf just reported Gulfstream is going to position the staring gate further back for races at 1 ⅛ miles, to reduce the cavalry-charge effect of starting so close to the first turn.
Clock starts same place—there’s longer run up–that would make the time faster…
Seems rather confusing, IMO. If the finish line is in the same spot, and the horses start 53 ft further back than normal, when and where does the clock start?
I’d appreciate clarification, Matthew W.
Thanks.
Jockeys requested they move start back, for safety—so yes, Bill—they ARE running longer…but the timer starts at the same exact point where it did before they moved the gate back…(in Quarter Horse Racing the clock begins when gate opens…that’s why a :21 second quarter for a Quarter Horse is a lot faster than a :21 second Thoroughbred quarter…..but it IS confusing…
Thanks for the reply, Matthew W
You mentioned the clock begins when the gate opens in Quarter Horse racing. Correct me if I’m wrong, but the clock starts when the gate opens in Thoroughbred racing as well, does it not?
In addition, Gulfstream’s management team decided to move the starting gate back 85 feet for 8.5-furlong races.
If the finish line remains in the same position, and the horses are running further (53 ft. for 9 furlongs and 85 ft. for 8.5 furlongs) how does that not affect the final running time?
You mentioned, “the timer starts as the same exact point where it did before they moved the gate back”. I remain confused as to what point the timer starts.
Anyway, thanks for the input, Matthew W.
Well no, Bill— in Thoroughbred Racing there is a “run up”…I think around 30 yards—before the clock starts!
Bill, if you go back and watch a reply of the 2025 Pegasus World Cup, the starting gate is not at the 9f pole at the track. You can watch the start of the race, watch the gates open, and about 3 seconds later you see the furlong pole. That’s the run up. The starting gate is set some distance back from the actual start of the race distance. That pole is where the clock starts. Gulfstream is moving the gate farther back.
A very impressive win by Grande. Will Pletcher point him to the Florida Derby?
We’ll see.
Looks like the plan…Grande looked good..
Bill Dawson– Grande is a very smart horse. He does what he has to do to win. And he is a very cool, collected, and mature 3 year old. He’s my pick for the Florida Derby.
This my take on the San Felipe and the FOY.
First the San Felipe
When I looked at all the works and preparations to this race I am thinking (again this is JMO) that McCarthy is conceding this race to Baffert. He knows he lost some training time with Journalism and knows he can’t make it up and wants to get a race into his horse and just gets some points. His works have not been the quickest and he admits his horse is not all cranked up for this race.
Baffert on the other hand has all three of his horse razor sharp, especially Barnes and Rodriguez. When I look at those 2 they remind me of 2 basketball players I use to watch in the NBA. Scotty Pippen (Rodriguez ) and Charles Barkley ( Barnes) both were forwards , Scotty a small forward and Charles Barkley a power forward. Both got the job done. Scotty was more of a finesse player were Barkley was more brut force and powered his way to the basket. Rodriguez seems to me to just glide over the track were as Barnes powers his way down the stretch.
At this stage I do not see Journalism beating either one of these two ( Unless, the above two run each other into the ground but I don’t see that happening ) but if he does we are looking at the next Kentucky Derby winner (barring injury) as he will only improve off of this race. Again I don’t expect a win from him though. My winner’s pick is either Barnes or Rodriguez
The FOY,
Sovereignty is considered the class of this race but like McCarthy I think Mott just wants to get race into his horse with Florida Derby his real goal. He to is playing catch up with him. The real race looks to be between Burnham Square and River Thames. I think at the beginning of the race it will be Gate to Wire, Neoequos, and Keep it Easy vying for the lead with River Thames tracking right behind those 3 and a little farther back Burnham Square with Sovereignty trailing the pack. The real question will be who gets the jump on who. I expect Burnham Square to make his move just before the turn coming into the stretch. If he is able to get the jump on River Thames it maybe all over for RT, but if RT gets the jump on BS on the turn coming into the stretch I think it is game over for everyone else in the field. I think Sovereignty only wins is if there is a total meltdown on the frontend. I don’t see that happening. What I do want to see is a quick turn of foot (ala Sierra Leone) from him.
Winner: Either River Thames or Burnham Square based on the scenario I just laid out.
I will be a spectator for the San Felipe and just watch. I will be betting the FOY just have not figured out my betting strategy yet.
Gotham… no thoughts on that race other than I wish Baffert would have sent Rodriguez there for this one.
Hard to put money on a race where Bob’s horses are not going to duel—example: in The Lewis–Rodriguez out broke Citizen Bull but rider was instructed to sit off…
Exactly Matthew, you don’t know what the instructions are with these races and you don’t know exactly who actually was the best horse. You see this time and time again with a slew of Bob Baffert runners in a race.
Hello DTS – McCarthy mentally might be conceeding the race , but Journalism and Rispoli will be rolling in the stretch to real in the other 2. I’m only betting $30 in my P5, but I am singling Journalism. I have to support Journalism who is my 52-1 bomb from KDFW2. Barnes is trying 2 turns for the first time and Rodriguez regressed last out, they aren’t a shoo in to win . As for the FOY, IMO, the overlooked Keep It Easy has a big upset chance. He’s my other KDFW horse at 69-1 from pool 4. I would be happy with a strong second from Journalism and KIE. But a win by one or both would be so sweet.
Joe P
Thanks for reminding us that you have Journalism at 52-1 in Pool 2.
Without these constant reminders, we just might forget. 🙂
Glad to oblige Bill. I know you like River Thames in the FOY, surprised he is the 2-1 FAV. He could certainly win. I’ll go with Keep it Easy for the upset.
Joe P,
The horse is between a rock and a hard spot in this race. If he stays too close to the early pace in this race he will most likely will flatten out in the stretch because I don’t think he has enough base/bottom under him. If he stays too far off the pace and comes with a run at the end like you suggest is he sharp enough to sustain it From the works I have seen of him I say… no. He will gain a lot from this race though as will the others in this race. But like said if he beats the Baffert bunch in this race he will be the horse to beat for the Kentucky Derby…. but I don’t think he wins this race.
Interesting overviews.
Why can’t Berlin Wall Win? There has been an upset in the SA Derby in ages.
The dangerous entrant in the FOY is Gate to Wire. His modest Street Cry dam (6 starts; earnings $2550) is out of Irresistible who won at the Grades 2 & 3 level and was also G1 placed.
It is understandable why the colt was directed to turf. He has a significant number of turf performer on his dam side. But he could be a dirt horse with lots of stamina from his turf side of his ancestry.
The fractions in the Swal were wickedly fast, 21+; 43+;1:09+ He tracked the leaders from a reasonably close distance before making his wining move. The fractions in the FOY are likely to be 2 to 3 seconds slower.
Downthestretch, that’s what has puzzled me as well re: Baffert not sending more horses west for points.
East that is. lol
He said he didn’t feel comfortable sending him out of town.
Puzzles me as well.
I can understand not participating in the Saudi and UAE races.
Maybe Steve can shed some light.
Valentinian, by Into Mischief, out of Rachel’s Velentina, by Bernardini, is set to debut for Todd Pletcher in the 6th race, at Tampa Bay Downs, on Saturday, March 1st.
Judging by his $1.5 million dollar auction price, there’s be high expectations from the get-go. His sire needs no introduction, the number of Into Mischief colts on this year’s Derby trail is nothing short of amazing. His dam, Rachel’s Velentina, won the G1 Spinaway, and his 2nd dam, Rachel Alexandra, beat the boys in the 2009 Preakness, along with additional G1 wins, too numerous to mention. Bernadini, his dam’s sire, has proven to be one the best broodmare sires out there.
Valentinian and Sovereignty share the same sire and broodmare sire, so you would think they just might share the same running style as deep closers. Time will tell.
At any rate, keep an eye on Valentinian moving forward.
BTW, he’s listed at 9/5 on the morning line, which is a good indication he’s well respected by the Tampa Bay oddsmaker.
Thank you Bill for the heads up about Valentinian.
Would certainly like to see Rachel Alexandra’s legacy carried on through future generations.
You’re welcome, Lynda
Valentinian is getting a late start, so it remains unclear if he’ll have any impact on the Derby trail. He started his workout regime back in June, but I noticed there was a three-month gap between July and October, so it appears he had a setback for whatever reason. Pletcher must be satisfied with his current works, hence his decision to enter Valentinina in that $53K maiden race on Saturday.
I was just reading the Porter on Pedigrees column on Burnham Square and happened to notice both his sire and dam are greys. How did he turn out bay? Anyone want to enlighten me?
Linda cheated on Liam ?!?!
LOL
Ms B, I am going to take a stab at explaining how though I am far, far from being an expert on horse color genetics.
Liam’s Map was by Unbridled who was a bay and Linda was by Scat Daddy, also a bay.
For Burnham Square to be a bay, the grey color genes from Liam’s Map and Linda would have had to be recessive. Bay is a dominant gene.
Now there are grey’s who only throw greys. Liam’s Map throws both.
There may be someone on the forum who can go into further depth.
Thanks Downy and Linda. After I checked on whether grey is recessive and found that it was in fact dominant, I figured other forces must be at work. Coal Front is definitely not grey.
Mrs B, there are two genes that affect coat color in horses and each of these genes have an allele.
Yes, your research is correct, grey is the dominant color if homozygous. Homozygous greys only produce greys.
Heterozygous greys can have a recessive color gene.
For Burnham Square to be a bay means both Liam’s Map and Linda are heterozygous greys.
In human terms, here is an example. My daughter has bright blue eyes. Both her Dad and I have dark brown eyes. Her paternal grandfather had blonde hair and blue eyes. My Father had dark brown eyes and his paternal grandfather had blue eyes. There were 5 children in my Father’s family. They all had black hair and dark brown eyes but his youngest sister. She had blond hair and blue eyes. Our daughter had a one in four chance genetically of having blue eyes.
I think I got y’all on this!
There are only two base coat colors in horses – Black and Red (chestnut/sorrel). Black (E) is dominant to Red (e). All other coat colors are made by modifier genes that affect where, how, and whether pigment is made. Chestnut horses, by definition, are “ee” genotype, and cannot make any black pigment.
Bay (an agouti gene), only produces a visible effect in a black basecoat horse. It restricts black pigment to the “points.” Only one copy of bay (A) is needed in genotype to result in the phenotype (physical type) of Bay, so this a dominant gene. A chestnut horse can carry the bay gene – 1 or 2 copies – but will never express it because its action is on distribution of black pigment. Chestnut horses don’t make any black, so won’t express the gene. But they can pass it to offspring. Bay is expressed in coat color from birth, meaning that when a foal is born and dries off, you can almost always tell it is a bay.
Grey (G) is a different modifier, occurring at a different gene locus. The absence of the grey gene is denoted as “g” in a genotype. Grey is similar to Bay in that the gene is dominant; therefore, only one copy of the gene is needed for the coat color to be expressed. However, Grey works on EITHER basecoat and the result of the gene’s action is a progressive inability to produce hair pigmentation, which results in a white coat color. The skin is usually still pigmented (vitiligo is a more complex process). Foals are usually born dark coated, in the color of their true basecoat (+ action on that color by any other modifiers, like Bay or Cream). They progressively turn grey – with most having progressively more white hairs over time. It is thought that horses with two copies of the grey gene (GG genotype) turn grey more rapidly and earlier in their lives than those with only one Grey gene (Gg). Any horse that never turns grey/white has the genotype “gg.”
For Burnham Square, pedigree analysis tells us that both Liam’s Map and Linda had one grey parent and one dark bay parent each. Both could only have inherited one Grey gene each, so the genotype is Gg for both. Each of the two has a 50% chance of passing the dominant Grey gene G. When two Gg horses are bred together, they will produce a GG genotype (grey coat) 25% of the time, a Gg 50% (grey coat, heterozygous genotype), and gg (non-grey coat) 25% of the time. Add the heterozygous to homozygous dominant to produce a grey offspring 75% of the time.
He is unusual, but likely legitimate. 🤪
Let me just say that I don’t necessarily believe the dominant grey thing about GG horses turning grey earlier/faster than Gg horses. Both White Abarrio and Hansen could only have been Gg, and both were quite grey in their 2-3 year old years. I think there may be another gene that interacts to cause this, but we haven’t identified it/that function yet.
Than is Katy for the info.
EDIT: Thanks
Ms Blacktype, you might find the website: horse-genetics dot com informative there is a specific segment on gray horses.
Thanks, David. I think Lynda cleared it all up by explaining that a grey can be homozygous or heterozygous.
The Gotham has been useless for the Derby since Secretariat. It’s for wagering entertainment and will roll with the chalk, Sand Devil. The FOY has produced 13 Derby winners but only two since Thunder Gulch in 1995. I like the Pletcher/JV combo with River Thames. Horse should be quick out of the gate with ample sire side speed. He gets a double dose of Buckpasser on the dam side so don’t think he shrivels up in the stretch at this distance but 9 or 10F may be a bridge over Thames too far. The San Felipe, aka the 2025 Bob Baffert Invitational, has also produced 13 Derby winners, most recently Authentic and California Chrome. Leaning Barnes there but think Journalism will be the better classic distance runner out of the race.
Easy Goer’s Gotham gave me goosebumps…
I Want Revenge’s Gotham was pretty impressive as well. What might have been had he made to the Kentucky Derby starting gate.
Easy Goer was my favorite horse on the track for a few years. I should have stated, “useless for Derby winner”. The Gotham should be a 20 point race, not 50.
What has not occurred in decades can occur on any race day. The Gotham is contested during winter when most of the better KD ither skip the race or have been relocated to warmer weather.
Orb broke his maiden at Aqueduct in November at Aqueduct and was promptly relocate to Florida. He won the FOY on the same day the Gotham was contested. There is no doubt he would have won the Gotham given his FOY performance.
Steve, what a pleasure it is to see the Dozen again. Great insight as always.
Stay young my friend,
Thank you Mike. It never left. Been doing it on here the past 5 years
Speaking of monumental horse races….always remember that $2,000 winner take all 700 mile horse race in Bite The Bullet.
RIP Gene Hackman.
One of the greatest actors of our time.
Yep, Kevin Costner said Hackman was the greatest actor he ever worked with.
My favorite Gene Hackman movies are Bonnie and Clyde, Mississippi Burning, Unforgiven, The Quick and The Dead, Hoosiers and the Bird Cage.
I hope for the family’s sake that the investigation reveals what happened and gives them closure.
“The Conversation” — One of the greatest understated performances in film history. Directed by Francis Ford Coppola two years after “The Godfather.”
“I Never Sang For My Father” is another good performance by Gene Hackman along with all the above movies mentioned and even in “The Poseidon Adventure” the talent shines above the melodrama.
Hackman in “The Bird Cage” brings the house down by arguing that “No one will dance with me. I think it’s the dress. I told them white will make me look fat.” Too funny.
Davids – “Birdcage” won a Screen Actor’s Guild award for best motion picture cast.
It is one of my favorite movies that featured Robin Wlliams.
In addition to Gene Hackman the cast also included Diane Wiest and Nathan Lane.
In recent years I have not watched many Hollywood movies.
“Elvis”, “Top Gun: Maverick”, “Bohemian Rhapsody”, “The Green Book”, and “The King’s Speech” pretty much rounds out the list of movies I have watched.
Viggo Mortenson who starred in “Hidalgo” and the “Lord of the Rings” trilogy was nominated for Best Actor in “The Green Book”.
Just could not bring myself to watch “War Horse”.
As someone said on X, with the passing of Gene Hackman the well is almost dry of really great actors.
I had so many laughs with Birdcage, just a really fun movie… My favorite is Hoosiers and Unforgiven.
Lynda, that is so true about great actors. These days there are so many times when a story line sounds fascinating then you read the cast and think, perhaps not.
Even “War Horse” on stage was distressing with the use of puppets. I regret having watched the film, you can never remove images from your psyche once they’ve implanted there.
Have you ever seen “The Last Movie Stars” a documentary about Paul Newman and Joanne Woodward it is truly fascinating.
Lynda, I replied to you earlier this morning but the reply is waiting for ‘moderation’ for what reason is a mystery.
Highly underrated in comedy roles! I will always love him as the blind hermit who accidentally abused the poor Monster with hospitality in “Young Frankenstein.” I have heard that Gene Hackman ad libbed the line, “I was gonna make espresso,” and it killed so they left it in. Not many left who worked on that movie. What a great cast!
Hackman was phenomenal in Mississippi Burning.
John,
Never saw that one but will be on the look out for it. Loved Hidalgo though
Hackman was a great one !!!
Downthestretch, ditto my reply to Lynda.
Hackman’s death looks suspicious, in that his wife and dog were found dead as well.
There’s an ongoing investigation to determine what exactly happened.
I’m afraid the investigation will reveal a familiar outcome that happens all too often with older married couples. So sad.
But she wasn’t that old.
Big Cap Day was the day!….You’d get to Arcadia early, get a big early lunch…..before arriving at the Great Race Place….and the throng of 60,000! The place looked pristine, walking into the front—and the incredible view awaiting, as you got to your seat—with tickets bought beforehand, as the massive grandstand had no empties….going to the saddling barn and standing on the steps and watching Charlie Whittingham talking with the stoic Shoemaker…seeing the strong Pincay, and flamboyant Cordero—crod six deep at the walking ring, pressure…a good pressure so thick you could cut it with a knife…The team of eight Clydesdales, pulling the starting gate into position, then.Chic Anderson saying “The flag is up”—and a roar of anticipation, as horses break—and Chic’s voice swallowed up by the frenzied cheering! Days gone by—long gone—I was young then, young enough to take it all in—the seat I bought beforehand practically not used!…
Hemingwayesque!
Thanks for the memories; it was the golden age of Calif racing the 80’s…..
Thanks Matthew,
I remember those days. Brings tears to my eyes !!! It is now just a shadow of itself.
I started going to Santa Anita ein 1955, Santa Anita Derby day.
Way back then it was Joe Hernandez calling races.
When did Chic Anderson call the races at Santa Anita. I guess I am older then I thought.
The Event Horizon of The Singularity—will, for better or worse change the world as we know it in such a way—nobody alive knows what our world will look like, in ten years…..
…..Mewondrrs how Horse Breeding will evolve, now that an intelligence beyond imagination is employed, in the choosing of matings—right down to the cell structures…maybe it can help me pick a winner or three….Oops! It’s parimutual!
What’s the best approach to handicap the Gotham?
I have taken a likeness to the Chad brown trained Garamondl. There are many reasons to bypass this entrant.
He’s a last out debut winner; he’s a shipper; he will be off Lasix and the extended distance. But despite the aforementioned risk factors, I find the colt appealing. Why?
He displayed excellent tactical speed to be close to a 22+ first quarter and was on the lead in hand when 45+ was recorded for 4F. He also displayed excellent stride mechanics with a good stride turnover rate. Despite recording a fast 1:17.04 for 6 12F he was unwilling to pullup in the gallop out. I contend his positives superseded his negatives.
There is another appealing entrant that has recorded mixed results in his last
two starts. His last start with Frankie in the irons was particularly disappointing. But there is somewhat of a historic trend that could influence a wager on this entrant despite his 8t place finish last out.
2006 – Street Sense won the BCJ at CD by a record 10L
2007 – Upon his return to CD he won the KD.
2020 – Rich Strike broke his maiden at CD by 17 1/4L
2021 – Upon his retuned to Cd he won the KD
2024 – Calling Card broke his maiden at Aqueduct by 17 1/4L
2025 – The Gotham represents Calling Card’s return to Aqueduct.
Street Sense and Rich Strike returned to the scene of their most impressive win and emerged the KD winner. Could the Calling Card have an affinity for Aqueduct? The best finishes of his career have been recorded at the venue.
I will have no alternative but to use both entrants in my wagers.
Am rooting for the NY breds..
Matthew, there is a CA bred in the Gotham that could surprise.
The owner of Affirmed, the 11th Triple Crown winner, died yesterday. Sending my heartfelt condolences to Patrice Wolfson’s friends and family. She was a marvelous horse person like her late father, Hirsch Jacobs. She will have many greeting her in heaven especially her Harbour View Thoroughbreds and her late husband Louis..
She is one of the last grand dams of Thoroughbred Racing. Rest in peace and G-d bless.
Heartfelt condolences to Mrs Wolfson’s family and loved ones.
She was truly an admirable sportswoman.
Terri,
Patrice was the last of the grand ladies, of the game along with Mary Lou Whitney and Penny Chenery of the 70’s , 80’s and 90’s. She had a smile that could light of a room. Racing was better because of their love for the game. They are all missed
Thank you for mentioning Mary Lou Whitney. I somehow failed to include her when I listed some of racing’s great ladies who were contemporaries of Patrice Wolfson. Mrs. Whitney belongs near the top of anyone’s list, and I should also have included her relatives by marriage Joan Whitney Payson and Liz Whitney Tippett, all wonderful horse owners from a great generation.
Thanks for including all the great ladies of racing in that era.
Thanks, Steve, for your continued excellence in producing these thought provoking essays on the merits of our current crop of Derby contenders. I learn a lot from the detailed info that you provide.
Your ranking of Keep It Easy at No. 9 piqued my interest into placing a modest wager on him in the KDFB @ 69-1. I’ve always liked his sire, Hard Spun, and his trainer, Dale Romans. If any trainer deserves a Derby win, it’s Dale, one of the good guys in the sport. In the Fountain of Youth, I expect that KIE will be attending the early pace, keeping River Thames in his sights. The capable veteran, Corey Lanerie, will know when to ask for another gear from his mount. Fingers crossed!
I’m so looking forward to this weekend’s San Felipe and Fountain of Youth. These two preps promise to be the best to date.
Dewey Herbert– I have always been a fan of Dale Romans and wish him the best. He’s helped to organize horsemen, owners, and fans to keep Gulfstream going. He is so deserving of a big win.
I’m hoping the best for Keep It Easy in the Fountain of Youth. I hope he is tough enough to overcome the outside post in the race.
P.S. Note to Steve Haskin: I hope your cataract surgery went well. And thanks for research and knowledge you have shared with us in your assessment of horses for the Kentucky Derby.
Dewey I took send Dale and his team my very best wishes for a successful Derby.
I’ve always felt close to Dale as we share the same birthday, August 14. Us Leo’s lead the way, or so they tell me. Ha, ha!
My younger brother’s birthday is on August 14 as well. Ha ha small world!!
How about that! You’ve got good bloodlines in your family, Davids. LOL
Well, Dewey, you Leos are supposed to be Majestic. I’m a Sagittarius, a lot of my friends are Leos, we are supposed to be very good companions.
Well done with #1 and #2!
Terri, I agree that Dale Romans has worked hard to fight to keep Gulfstream alive. For that and his willingness to help other horsemen in need, he is well liked and respected.
With one scratch, there is now a field of seven for the Fountain of Youth. So, Keep It Easy should have no problem getting good position going into the first turn. His works have been sharp, so we should expect a good effort on Saturday.
Thanks very much Dewey.
Good luck on your KDFW4 bet on Keep it Easy at 69-1. I also bet on him in that pool and believe he could upset in the FOY.
Steve, this year’s Kentucky Derby has basically overnight transformed from rather steadily boring to a must watch daytime soap opera. Some may think the comparison slightly ridiculous but there is a lot over the top drama starting to unfold on the racetrack.
Who can forget Stephanie and Brooke’s battles royal in “The Bold and the Beautiful” over the affection of Ridge? Ha ha ha Watching this high drama soapie helped to relieve the stress involved in completing a thesis. Perhaps Todd and Bob and Michael and Mark and Brad should find a soapie to cling on to as things get closer and tenser coming up to the first Saturday in May. Bill is so laid back he just needs to watch some ‘reality tv’ for a few laughs.
I must admit last weekend was a great day of racing for me in three continents, no less. Coal Battle, Sandman, Tiztastic, Madaket Road, and even Admiral Dennis all ran well so I was jubilant in the Rebel Stakes.
The moment of truth has finally arrived for quite a few this weekend so some dreams will no doubt be shattered while for others things will be getting very serious. Two unmentioned colts in the Gotham Stakes, Flood Zone, from the family of Ride the Trails, and Pagoda have my interest. They may do nothing but then again it’s a funny year…
Thanks again, Steve. Good luck in sorting out the winners and losers after the weekend assortment of prep races have been completed.
Boy you lost me with the soaps but I’ll give you the elements of one. All I know is that 6 of the top 12 are running in two races Saturday. How did I paint myself into that corner?
Steve, you probably haven’t ever watched “The Bold and the Beautiful” but the passion and hatred was so over the top you became enthralled. Ha ha As blue larkspur mentioned below some of the comments below were getting into soap opera quality…way over the top.
Then I thought of the trainers in a soap opera of a horse racing drama, all fun plus as you say it’s high drama this weekend and many of the high profile colts might not be after a race or two.
Steve, about painting yourself into a corner, it’s the somewhat odd situation of the California trainers relying exclusively for points in Californian preps. ‘Something’s gotta give’ so to speak.
Mmmm … the only soap opera are the feuding commenters
That’s exactly what I was thinking of blue larkspur they reminded me of when I watched “The Bold And the Beautiful” for about 6 months it took your mind off the stress of writing. Then I started of the trainers as the characters…
Started ‘Imagining’ the trainers
Davids, certainly drama playing out worthy of a soap opera.
One horse I am following is Golden Vekoma (by Vekoma out of Sticks Wonder Girl) who is in Dubai to run in the UAE Derby. If he wins he will have punched his ticket to the Kentucky Derby.
To date Golden Vekoma has raced 4 times with 3 wins and 1 show.
Vekoma’s sire is Candy Ride.
Sticks Wonder Girl’s dam Y Country was by Quiet American, sire of Real Quiet who won two legs of the Triple Crown.
Y Country’s sire is StevieWonderBoy who won the BC Juvenile.
Sprinkled throughout Golden Vekoma’s pedigree are highly recognizable names like Seattle Slew and Summer Squall.
I think Forever Young’s third place in the 2024 KY certainly indicates that a UAE Derby winner can be highly competitive.
As to Baffert’s Best, only one so far, Citizen Bull, has a secure post with 60 points. Madaket Road and Getaway Car could make the cut with 31 and 36 points respectively. That leaves Barnes and Rodriguez to earn enough points to make the cut.
Just an interesting scenario I think that potentially Baffert could have 5 horses in the Derby. Barring setbacks, would he run all 5? Is the potential there to come in 1,2,3 in the Derby?
Another interesting consideration in my opinion is Romantic Warrior in his first race on dirt almost won over Forever Young. Steve has often mentioned colts first running on turf then switching to dirt. The one that comes to my mind is Barabaro. Could we see more of this in the future?
Coal Battle is by far the fan favorite for the Derby win. Support is overwhelming across all social network sites. Could this be the year that the fan favorite who goes back to my first favorite Carry Back rises to the occasion and wins the Derby like California Chrome?
Another thought is could this be the year of the gelding?
Yes, so much unfolding drama in this year’s Kentucky Derby though your soap analogy lost me, LOL.
Hi Lynda, Golden Vekoma has been extremely impressive in the UAE Guineas and Saudi Derby while the UAE Derby distance shouldn’t be a problem. As you say, there is a ton of stamina and brilliance in his pedigree which is what is needed for the Kentucky Derby. Heart of Honor looks very dangerous in the UAE Derby as well. The Vekoma progeny are progressing stoutly as three year olds so the future looks more than promising for Vekoma.
Yes, I take your meaning about the Baffert brigade. The points are given away on paper they have to be won. Moreover, despite his overzealous supporters here twice the Baffert colts have been beaten going East to get points which is some concern. Bob Baffert has quite a few clients to please and running them all in California is impossible. Over the years, you wonder sometimes about race results….
With Romantic Warrior, the dirt I believe stopped him form kicking home as he would have on turf and I love Forever Young. I’ve always liked the turf to dirt concept with 2 & 3 year olds in the US. As you’d know, turf is kinder and develops slightly different muscle tone than strictly running them on dirt. Bill Mott among others often start them on turf first, plus you also have the option of running long early instead just dirt sprints.
I agree, Coal Battle winning the Kentucky Derby would be the best thing for US racing right now – it just warms your heart just dreaming about it.
I was saddened to read of the passing of Patrice Jacobs Wolfson, who with her husband Louis Wolfson owned Affirmed. She was a lovely lady and certainly a credit to thoroughbred racing. I was amazed that her obituary on the Blood Horse site did not mention until paragraph 17 that she was also the owner of Hail to Reason, which in the big picture may be a greater achievement than owning Affirmed. Unfortunately, we no longer seem to have the outstanding female owner/breeders that we had during her era. In addition to Mrs. Wolfson, there was Penny Chenery, Allaire duPont, Gladys Phipps, Elizabeth Arden Graham, Marion duPont Scott, Mrs. Gene Markey, and others. The only lady I can think of today that might be in that category is Barbara Banke. Along with her memorable contemporaries, Mrs. Wolfson will be missed.
She raced Flawlessly who I admired; she was a big time turf mare.
It’s a shame that the legacies of many of the great thoroughbred breeding families are fading into history. Many of the elements that made racing so special are gone, but we’re still here. I wonder if racing can survive many generations on its current trajectory, but we’ve seen some of the best of it.
Well said Todd.
Yes Jiffy, so many of the great ladies of the sport are gone. So sorry to hear this.
Some amount of ridicule is being directed towards citing that I am providing excuses for the loser I selected in the Rebel. That is so unkind, but I am accustomed to unflattering comments. I am somewhat immune to them.
Sandman had a horrendous start in the Southwest that left him trailing the field by 9L. He erased the 8L of the deficit to fall short of winning by 1L. The unfortunate Sandman had 8 opponents to pass for an unlikely victory. He passed 7. The consensus is he would have been the winner with an even break.
Admiral Dennis had a similarly horrendous start in the Rebel, that left him trailing the field by 24L. He erased 17L of the deficit to finished 6th by 7L. He had 12 opponents to pass and was able to pass 7.
As one that wagered the colt, it’s only natural that I would lament his unfortunate loss. Some food for thought –
Biggest deficit for top 5 finishers that trailed the leader –
Coal Battle – 8L; erased all to win by 1 1/4L
Sandman – 13L; erased 11 1/4L to finish 3rd by 1 3/4L
Publisher – 15L; erased 11 1/4L to finish 4th by 3 3/4L
Tiztastic- 8; erased 1 1/2L to finish 5th by 61/2L
Admiral Dennis -24 erased 17L to finish 6th by 7L.
The Brad Cox colt has good tactical speed. From a good break he would have likely been much closer than 24L. Given the 17L he closed compared to the lesser number of lengths closed by the cited 4. It appears he would have been the strongest closer.
I did not wager on a loser but rather a potential winner that suffered a major misfortune on a speed biased surface from which there was no recovery. Not all also ran are losers. some are the unfortunate.
Speed bias or not, the Rebel had the fastest fractions in its History!; the race set up for closers Coal and Sandman. I’m not impressed with Sandman at all, easy throw away unless the KD has insanely fast fractions.
Jeff, I don’t know the entire Rebel history. But the 1997 Rebel had faster 2f, 4f, and 6f fractions. Direct Hit set those fractions, and though he couldn’t hold off Phantom on Tour, he held well for 2nd. Phantom, I think, was the only Rebel runner to enter the derby. He finished 6th, seven lengths behind Silver Charm.
If the derby has early fractions like in ’22 and ’23…watch out for Coal Battle or any other solid closer.
With a name like Coal Battle, in a state known for coal production, and a hard knocking trainer who keeps plugging away, fans will keep watching CB. Is there a better story this year? I do hope CB makes it through. Horse racing needs a horse like him.
I just finished reading an article about Burnham Square which explained the reason he was gelded. Per Clay Whitham, the owner breeder of Burnham Square, “he was not the best looking foul out of the crop and was difficult to work with”. Thus, the recommendation was made to geld him before he made it to the races.
If that is the reason to geld a horse, there probably would be a significant number of geldings running around various tracks.
Bill it is not uncommon in all horse breeds for a colt to be gelded if he is not future stallion quality.
Some colts, especially around two, develope obnoxious and sometimes dangerous dispositions.
If the goal is a performance horse these attitudes can interfere with training.
Mr Morton Fink gelded Wise Dan because he did not think his pedigree (by Wiseman’s Ferry) was not be attractive to the breeding farms. Mr Fink was also a true sportsman and was interested in racing not future stallion potential.
There are more geldings in England than here.
Geldings as a rule stay sound longer and have longer careers and once their racing career is over have a better chance at a second career.
Hi Lynda
Thanks for the reply, Lynda. I consider you as one of the more knowledgeable contributors on this site along with Nelson Mann.
Your points on why young colts are gelded makes sense. However, I would think there are countless young colts that fit the description that you outlined, but with maturity and the proper training, there are many that grow out of that “obnoxious” disposition. I’ve often wondered how a colt must feel losing his “manhood” so to speak. I guess I’m just another hopeless “romantic”, thinking the gelding procedure is completely unnatural. All animal species are born with the natural instinct to procreate. How does a gelded horse handle the absence of that instinct pray tell? Surely, it must affect him in one way or another.
Anyway, I’ll get off my soap box for now and move on to handicapping the big three Derby prep races coming up on Saturday.
Best of luck moving forward, Lynda.
BTW, Lynda, I meant to ask you, what sort of “second career” does a gelding have in store for him.?
Thanks
Hi Bill.
Track ponies, Endurance (long distance based on time and condition), Eventing, Hunter/Jumper just to name a few.
The Thoroughbred is a very versatile breed. Hunter/Jumpers and Cross Country find them to have a lot of scope snd intelligence.
They also make excellent riding horses (called hacks in England).
Thoroughbred mares, especially Secretariat line cross well with the American Quarter Horse and Arabians.
Thanks, Lynda.
Your points are well taken.
Always some suck-up name to tell yourself you are brilliant! Never fails!
You’re out of line, blue larkspur.
Colts don’t know they’ve lost their “manhood.” That’s ascribing a very human concept to an animal. The urge to procreate is due to evolution, in the wild that is how an animal ensures its genes are passed on. That is a non-factor when you talk about domesticated animals that are not free to breed at will. All that urge does in a stallion that isn’t breeding is stress them out and endanger them and the humans working with them.
There is a lot of conversation in the dog world about the pros and cons of neutering male dogs, but that is entirely based on physical changes as a result of the process and what effect that can have on the dog. It is now recommended that large-breed male dogs aren’t neutered until about 2 years old to ensure that growth plates close correctly. But as far as I know, there are no behavioral concerns, and none with horses either.
I seem to remember a story about the thoroughly ill-tempered Hastings almost being gelded because he was so dangerous. Had H undergone the procedure there would have been no Man O’War.
Wow! That’s an amazing story Sharon. Thanks for posting.
Imagine modern pedigrees without dangerous horses, Nasrullah, Ribot and Dynaformer. Also multiple downstream descendants of all three.
Bill sometimes colts are gelded because they are cryptorchoids. If both testicals fail to descend it can result in a dangerous and life threatening condition.
AP Indy had one undescended testicle but was still fertile.
Same with his son Honor Code who had surgery to remove the one that did not because it was causing him discomfort.
Stallions with this condition can be infertile.
In response to your question about how a colt feels after being gelded. Most colts are gelded before they realize they are a stallion which is anytime from 9 to 18 months. The younger the colt the traumatic the procedure is and with fewer complications.
You bring up a very good point about maturity and training to correct t bad behavior. That is true, often that works. However a lot of colts (fillies) are allowed to get away with bad behavior. They are like children, you can’t wait until the problem gets out of control to correct.
There have been several viscious Thoroughbred stallions in addition to Man O’War’s sire as mentioned by Sharon Brock. Halo had a nasty disposition as did Dynaformer and the stallion who almost killed D Wayne Lucas’ son.
Quick story. My Dad, a WW ll veteran, spent some time training at Ft Riley, KS which was rhe home of the US Calvary. There was a viscious stallion housed there. His caretaker, a soldier, was killed by this horse right in front of my Dad. Most of the horses in the US Calvary in that era were Thoroughbreds.
I personally have no problem with a gelding training and running up to the Kentucky Derby. There have been 9 geldings that have won the race since its inception, the most recent being Mine That Bird.
Correction, less traumatic.
Lynda
Thank you for providing additional information and reasoning relating to the gelding of a young colt. However, I remain skeptical that the procedure is in the best interest of any given colt. It has been said that horse racing is not for the thin skinned. I believe that comes into play here.
Thanks again for taking the time to express your feelings on the subject of gelding.
Your are most welcome Bill.
I am always open to listening to opinions that differ from mine.
The exciting Opera Ballo just won by open lengths the same race Noble Speech won a year ago ahead of the 2000 Guineas. He was probably more impressive than Noble Speech.
The Kempton ( AW) race is RTKD event. Given that Godolphin has the Champion 2YO ad another talented colt targeting the 2000 Guineas. What’s the prospect of Appleby targeting the KD with this colt via the USE Derby?
What happened to Ferocious? I expected to see him in the Fountain of Youth. Seems like a nice horse, but maybe a bit of a head-case.
I was told what’s happening with him but it was off the record. When I learn more and am able to I will have it in KOTD.
After all the above discussion, I hope he’s not being gelded.
The New York-bred River Thames will look to make it 3 for 3 in the Fountain of Youth on Saturday. He’s a son of Maclean’s Music which suggests that he might be better at six or seven furlongs. But he has already won at a mile and looked like another sixteenth would be no problem. He will be trying 2 turns for the first time though. Can Sovereignty or Burnham Square catch him?
Mindframe looks odds-on in the Gulfstream Mile if he is anywhere close to what he was last spring and summer. Seven months off is always a concern though.
TP will send out the $1.15million Disruptor for a second try on Saturday. These million- dollar horses seemingly show up every week now. And not just in BB’s barn.
Lots of what I call “grab bag” turf races at Gulfstream on Saturday. Trip is everything in these types of races. They make it hard to hit multi-race wagers.
would a more pertinent question be. Can river Thames repel the closing fury of Sovereignty, Burnham Square and Gate to Wire?
I watched Gate to Wire. He didn’t “wow” me. Watching replays isn’t a perfect science. But I’m doing my best.
The swale fractions were – 21+;43+1:09+. How much faster could they have gone?
Hey TommyMcD
I have River Thames at the top of my Derby Watch List, for a number of reasons.
At first glance, you would think he may be better suited for sprints and middle-distance races. His sire, Maclean’s Music raced only once, going 6 furlongs in 1:07.44, earning an Equibase Speed figure of 115 in the process. Look no further than his dam side that reveals considerable class and stamina influence, especially on his tail-female side that reflects some of the past greats too many to mention. Renown breeder, Ogden Phipps has his fingerprints all over River Thames’ dam side.
I always take notice of horses bred from the Mr. Prospector/Northern Dancer cross, which has produced 19 winners of Triple Crown races.
I predict River Thames will win the FOY, and move on to the Florida Derby, to secure a starting spot in the KD.
Thanks. I was on site that day at Santa Anita when Maclean’s Music ran that smoker of a race. Unfortunately, never to race again.
Like I posted the other day, did Johnny V choose to stay in Florida to ride River Thames instead of going out west to ride Locked in The Big Cap? BB probably could have put him on one of his monsters in the San Felipe as well. My point is that Johnny V must like River Thames. I’ll be watching
I completely agree with your take on John Velesquez remaining in Fla.
BTW, don’t forget he’s riding Grande, for Pletcher in Race #8 tomorrow at GP.
Great point….
Coal Battle’s story is remarkable, but maybe not as remarkable as a possible derby win by Lonnie Briley. I’m guessing that it’s been many decades since a trainer won the derby with his first derby starter and with no previous graded wins (other than the derby horse). Perhaps Cam Gambolati, who was a relative newcomer when he saddled Spend A Buck.
Yikes! How could I have forgotten Rich Strike and Eric Reed, and Mine That Bird and Bennie Woolley. So the lesson is…the horse had better be a big price!
I Posted the book chapter I wrote on Rich Strike on my Facebook page today. Still an amazing story..
Great! I have my bedtime reading for tonight.
On December 6, 2024, I posted the following to the blog titled ‘A Portrait of Charcoal’
[The Springboard Mile has a nice field.
I will be all over Coal Battle by Coal Front. I am sure Charcoal will approve.]
I must give a shout out to Bill Dawson whom I seem to have unknowingly offended, for being the only supporter to recall the post and offered congratulations after the colt’s victory.
In a post ahead of the Smarty Jones I got into more details about the colt pedigree, citing that 5 members of his first 5 generations were sired by TC winner Seatle Slew.
Why highlight the above?
I couldn’t have imagined that this little-known colt and a trainer with whom I am not familiar, would team up going forwards to win two additional KD preps and secure a spot in the KD.
It just goes to show. You never know!
Why highlight the above?
To pat yourself on the back! Way to go!
I like most is looking forwards to the San Felipe. But my reasons might be different from most.
I have made posts regarding my opinion of Journalism and Barnes which have not been well received as was expected. I will be viewing the performance of ech colt to determine if my assessment was either flawed or accurate. This will determine if I need to revisit my assessment criterion.
I classified journalism as nice colt that isn’t very athletic. His transition from cruising to faster lacks smoothness and as a result he requires extensive urging to get into contention. His less-than-ideal stride mechanics compromises his late race speed. he uses too much energy far too early in his races.
In summation, Journalism will be extremely vulnerable to classy high cruisers that can accelerate out of their cruising speed an remain resolute to the line. I would love to be wrong for the sake of CA Racing and the strangle hold BB has on stakes races and KD preps in CA.
I classified Barns as nothing special but rather an expensive colt with good ability. My assessment has nothing to do with a dislike of BB or for the horses he trains. Like most, I have an assessment criterion that is used for all KD prospects.
Barnes doesn’t have the physical appearance of a router. His stride turnover rate is consistent with that of sprinter/miler. His wide gait and the force with which he hits the ground isn’t ideal for extended distances particularly against opponents with equivalent ability. The colt will be vulnerable to classy closers with extreme late speed.
In the BC Juv, BB went first, second, and Fourth. With his stranglehold, I would not be surprised by similar result in KD. Not a popular opinion either but until I see someone who steps up significantly such as Sovereignty, I can see that result happening this year. BB has been waiting and preparing his charges just for his welcome back to the KD this year.
Journalism is a huge threat to win it all beside Sovereignty.
What’s your opinion of Berlin Wall?
Barnes hasn’t even gone beyond 7 furlongs, not time yet to award him the Kentucky Derby. And he’s the best he’s got.
Coal Battle’s dam, Wolfblade’s great great grandam, Palliser Bay, was by Frosty The Snowman who was out of Frosty Skater who was out of Skate Back.
Guess who Skate Back’s sire was (without looking).
Taking a stab…Carry Back?
Yes!
YAY!
The rankings will be totally changed after Caldera wins the Louisiana Derby ! Bet !
I HOPE YOU ARE RIGHT LOL Own a samll piece of him and would nothing more than to head to Churchill.
Wouldn’t that be thrilling! I’m following Caldera with interest and wish you all the best with him going forward.
Steve, I would be the happiest lady ever if Coal Battle stays healthy and wins the Kentucky Derby!!
It sure would be a great story. We have had several heartwarming human interest stories in the Derby recently.
Coal Battle at 11-1 when he should have been 7/2 in the Rebel? And Madaket Road at 5-1 when he should have been 5/2 or 3-1? This race was a complete gift, and probably the best overlay play of the year, win and exactor.
The race set up just as expected, with Madaket Road outclassing and negating the other speed. The only question was whether Coal Battle could run him down, but at 11-1 he was the bet of the Derby Prep season to date. A $217.70 exactor? Where’s the wheelbarrow!
You know I always love your in-depth analysis Steve. Here’s something to think about. Could all the romping bluebloods and Baffert trainees set the race up for a horse who knows where the wire is, like Coal Battle? Even if he wins his next start, he’ll probably still be an overlay in the Derby. Hoping he doesn’t peak before the first Saturday in May. Price memories of Dornoch in the Belmont last year 🙂
Still missing the 1970s at Belmont Park.
Hey George. Actually if he wins the Arkansas Derby all the features on Lonnie Briley and the horse could very well drive the odds down.
Coal Battle won the Springboard Mile in1:39.25 and the Smarty Jones in 1:46.43. On paper those are not very fast times.
To win the Rebel the colt to run considerably faster whilst allowing 2lbs to 5lbs to some opponents that had run faster. The betting public had to determine if he was good enough to run faster and also allow the weight. It was a not an easy decision.
Madaket Road weakened gradually in the 1/2F shorter Bob Lewis in his last out race. That was viewed as a modest effort and that could have contributed to his starting price.
The support for Sandman was probably the major contributor to the final odds of all other entrants in the race. I consider Sandman to be on the slow side for his level of support. But I might just be a lone wolf regarding the colt.
Finally, it’s not uncommon for young horses to improve significantly between starts. There is absolutely no way to assess the extent of their improvement. Consequently, the wagering public is left to speculate.
When a horse encounters major trouble like Sandman did in his previous race—they tend to get overbet, the next time—it happens time and again…I like Sandman, he keeps coming, and has been getting experience….
Yes George,singled him for $500.
Big spender.
Mine was was only for 50 on Coal Battle
How’s it going Mark?
That’s cold!
I have been ridiculed in many forums for the number paragraphs that comprise my posts.
My posts are most comprised of relatively short paragraphs. Why have I adopted this style? I am of the opinion it makes for easier reading and allows readers to better follow the sequence of the content, particularly where the font is small. This style of presentation makes my posts appear longer than they are.
Some supporters of this space chose to use one paragraph to cover all the points being made. Their posts will appear to be shorter. However, if one lengthy paragraph is broken into a paragraph that covers each different point being made, the post will appear longer.
I am a student of history and often include in my post the historic factors that contribute to my opinions. I am a different type of contributor.
There are some who chose not to acknowledge differences in presentation and approach. But instead, chose to ridicule style of writing they fail to understand.
Many instances my posts to you are complimentary,however you’re reluctant to reply.
Your post on Baffert not only was long it was repetitive and as usual you don’t know when enough is enough. We are well aware of your feelings for him and to be honest no one cares anymore and another long winded diatribe like that will be deleted. Stick to horses and knocking Todd Pletcher’s Derby record which also is getting tiresome.
Steve,
The information and writing style you give us is what we all appreciate.
You put in so much time and effort and every year after the Breeders Cup, we can’t wait until you start up again with your Derby rankings.
Steve – I am praying for a speedy recovery for your surgery. You know you have so many fans on this site that feel the same way.
David
THANK YOU, STEVE!!!!!!!!
ill will
About Bob…..I really have not seen him rush horses into The Derby too often…not very many—and I do understand that some do not like the man ..we are TALKING HORSES HERE! He has some good ones, and talking about them does not mean WORSHIPING BOB—please STOP SAYING THAT! Barnes gets talked about because the guy who has won a bunch of Kentucky Derbys likes him a lot—makes sense to me—and I do not worship the man, but I appreciate top level equine talent….there are posters who will not say one single good note about any of his horses, as if they are his spawn, or something….Mr Coldfacts writes 5000 word cases, for 40-1 shots, but cannot see how a horse like Barnes has a sliver of a chance at success—so much for “facts”, I guess….so go ahead and dislike a person but we’re talking horses here…
Always liked War Emblem and Midnight Lute. Saw WE many times at Old Friends.
Mike I loved Midnight Lute! Heck–I used to go to Oregon State basketball games, and yell “sit down, Lute”!…But I’ve always been a sucker for deep closing sprinters, like Swept Overboard…Midnight Lute…Lit de Justice…Elite Power….’Lute sired Midnight Bisou–one of my favorite all time fillies, who finally got her $10 million …from the Saudi Cup—only took five years!..
You said it Matthew with Elite Power. Hope you’re doing well.
Agree! I became a Midnight Bisou fan partially because of her family. I was surprised and saddened that they sold her to Japan, especially after the connections had said how much she meant to them.
War Emblem was one of my favorites. Disappointed when he lost Belmont.
Linda, also liked WE color.
Matt,
It appears some write in a language with which you are not familiar. I cannot recall seeing a post citing you as worshiping BB.
Why is the term worshiping use and is there any merit? If you find worshiping over the top, let’s substitute if with idolize. In the good book certain people worshiped idols.
IDOLIZE – Admire, revere, love greatly or excessively’
Is BB idolized? There can be no doubt he is idolize. The big question is. Why?
The dark side of his history is meaningless to those that idolize him. He is treated like he is God gift to Thoroughbred Racing. Is the aforementioned statement over the top? Let’s see –
After his suspension there were many predictions of the demise of CD and that the Kentucky Derby will never be the same without his horses. That’s asserting he is either bigger than the KD or he is one of the pillars on which the races is built. Can you think of any other trainer that is viewed in such a status?
The records reflect that during his suspension CD reported record handles for the KD. Attendance on average was the same if not greater. CD completed a $200M renovation to it racing complex
The KD Future Pool has featured 4 unraced betting interests. All have been from the barn of BB. There can be no doubt that many barns are associated with unraced youngsters that were burning up the track. Why weren’t said unraced horses listed as betting interest? Why are BB’s unraced horses affording this distinction? And how does this reflect on other trainers?
BB Horses-
You do a disservice to conclude that there is dislike for his horses. As I have stated before which you seem to have missed. It the hype surrounding his horses that is disliked.
Brad Cox’s John Hancock won on debut over 6F in 1:09+. He got some press, but nothing like the press BB debut winner that recorded a similar time at OK Park. Cox colt set a NSR next out and he isn’t on many Top 10 KD list including Steve’s 12. No one referred to John Hancock a beast after his NSR. But Barnes was referred to a beat after his San Vicente win.
I summation, BB is views as being superior to all other trainer and that is absurd. In the last 20 years BB has secured the Outstanding Trainer Award once. He merely has a better KD & Preakness record than most. There was a period of 12 year he didn’t win the KD. That not a sign of superiority.
At your convenience revisit Bayern. The colt was last by 20L in the Travers. Two races later he was wining the BCC in time 6 seconds faster than he recorded in the Travers. In the colt next 5 starts he was defeated by a combined 70L. In 2021 Bayern covered 10 mares. A stallion that has a time 1:46+ for 9F and 1:59+ for 10F.
There is training and there is something else.
Amen!
Well I did get testy, on my rant…I see Bob’s horses out here, it’s what I know—so I talk about them—I used to not like Bob, especially when he went after Janine Sahadi and her horse The Deputy—Bob reminded me of a guy I never liked name Jim Rome, who has a “catty” way of making fun of people for a living—but after Bob had his heart attack…he completely changed, I like the guy and I like his wife—the Medina Spirit dq was an overage, during Covid…and Bob displayed the event, and badly—by taking the victim role…I sure don’t feel sorry for the guy—but I greatly respect his ability to pick out equine talent and develop them into Derby winners—it’s a 29 horse cavalry charge, the guy has won six..had a seventh dq’d, and a Cal bred that got beat a nose, after a big steady, at the 3/8’s pole—and he might pull the 2025 trifecta, for his comeback, he just might…he has terrific stock—and they work against one another in mini “races”,and all that said—I’m rooting for Journalism, and loving Coal Battle!
*misplayed the event)
Pardon the mistakes I am lisibg my sight—had an optic stroke which is incurable..(no more rides out to Santa Anita)
Sorry about your eye condition. Your posts are fine. No problem at all. I agree with your comments, except for saying the Medina Spirit DQ was for an overage. Any amount of betamethasone is a violation.
MatthewW, I am so sorry to hear your eyesight is not improving.
Matthew W Sorry to hear about your problems with your eyesight. Please try to keep your blood pressure down. It’s difficult because so many foods are loaded with salt.
Matthew W, I love your Santa Anita stories. Please keep telling them, even if you do not make new memories there.
Here’s to hoping that there will be a therapy for you on the horizon. Heard a story last week about promising results of a gene therapy procedure for young kids with very little sight and progressive blindness. The injections helped preserve sight, and in many, led to visual improvements over several months. Disease processes once thought incurable are not always so in this time of medical discovery! Chin up, if you can manage it. You have my sincere best wishes, and I appreciate what you bring to this blog with each post.
Additionally, thanks for the reminder that we are talking about horses.
Hi Matthew W
I share your dislike of Jim Rome, who as you mentioned, made a living making fun of people. I recall an interview he had with Rams QB Jim Everett, about 30 years ago, questioning his toughness. During the interview, he compared Everett to tennis star, Cris Evert. Everett went over the top of the interview table, taking down Rome in the process. The whole altercation was caught on live TV. Due to his appeal to the younger crowd, which resulted in high ratings, he managed to continue ridiculing people at every opportunity for many years, subsequent to the interview incident.
What does this have to do with horse racing? Absolutely nothing, but I just thought I would throw that out there.
BTW Matt, I’m sorry about your failing eyesight. Hopefully, at some time in the future some sort of medical treatment will be discovered that will address the issues that you’re dealing with.
All the best, Matt.
Bill Dawson — Jim Rome does have something to do with horse racing as he had owned a wonderful thoroughbred named Shared Belief. Poor Shared Belief died much too young.
Jim Rome, in his broadcasts, acts like he is a king on his throne. Shared Belief was the true royalty associated with Jim Rome and not Rome himself.
Agree Terri.
Jim Rome owned Mizdirection, as well, winner of the 2012 and 2013 BC Turf Sprint.
Matthew, I am so sorry to read that your eyesight has not improved and you won’t be visiting Santa Anita again. Agree with everything you wrote about Bob Baffert, the personal attacks on Janine Sahadi were disgraceful and his persona improved after the heart attack.
The racing media wrote and photographed Bob Baffert with his white hair and dark sunglasses as if he was a rock star. Who wouldn’t get a little arrogant with that constant adoration?
He definitely has a litany of faults, who doesn’t, but he does know how to pick, and train racehorses to compete at the highest level and win at the big dances. His training regime is too tough for a lot of promising colts but his patrons are steadfast in backing him.
As many have written beforehand, there is not much new about Bob Baffert we don’t know but his stable changes regularly let’s just concentrate on the horses and leave the personal in private. All the best, Matthew.
David’s and everyone: many thanks! From what I understand I won’t go totally blind…and fir a brief time every morning I see a bit better….have rediscovered the CBS Mystery Theatre radio shows,all 1399 of them!
Matthew, that’s some positive news. Nowadays, as often as I can I listen to podcasts of news, racing etc and audiobooks instead of actually reading books to rest my eyes. It really works for me
Spot on!
Bayern came into the Classic having won three of his last four races, all graded stakes, in blowout fashion, and focus exclusively on the one bounce as if that leads to questioning the Classic. He had already proven he had talent. The only other bad race he’d run all year was the Preakness where he had an awful early trip after stumbling and getting slammed out of the gate.
He likely covered only 10 mares in 2021 because he seemed to have fertility problems, less than 50% live foals in both 2018 and 2019. And as we all know, there is only a small correlation between on-track success and a successful breeding career.
He really rushes horses into the Derby.
Glad to be of help ….
By stating I think it’s a bad play to rush Cornucopian into the Derby—I KNOW his debut was fantastic, I KNOW it was better than any of Bob’s others, and I KNOW he could win a big prep—I also know it is LATE—he has no BOTTOM—bottom is what a Derby horse has developed from having had some two year old two turn competition…Cornucopian will try two turns in March or April!…Just some racing..doesn’t need to be wins…some racing….Justify did it—Justify’s debut—a couple weeks earlier—remains the best debut performance I have ever seen, and the colt was built like Pegasus! He was the EXCEPTION….TAIBA was the rule—he recovered and had a good year—I do not like seeing a good horse rushed—Cornucopian is a good horse..
Let’s see where he takes us; I wouldn’t box in an an incredible talent like CORN; Bob will have it figured out.
He doesn’t need to be rushed.
Grande, by Curlin, out of Journey Home, by War Front, attracted early support with his maiden win back in January. Todd Pletcher has him entered in a 75K AOC race, at GP on Thursday, Feb. 27th (R8). Pletcher’s go to rider, John Velazquez, will be in the saddle.
The race will be contested at 9 furlongs, which will be a great stamina test for all the entrants. Grande is listed at 5/2, the 2nd favorite on the morning line, with Jimmy’s Dailys listed as the favorite at 2-1.
Solid Left and McKellen (both scratched out of the FOY) are entered in this AOC race, both listed at 6-1.
BTW, Grande’s last three works have been bullets, so it appears Pletcher has him ready for a big effort. It remains to be seen if the winner will move on to a Derby prep race, but anything is possible these days.
Safe trips to all.
Bill Dawson, Thanks for the info on Grande’s race at Gulfstream. I hope to get there in time or at least watch it on tv.
Maybe if he does well he will swing for the fences in a derby prep. have him in my futures.
Attn: Nelson Mann
Hurry back to the fold, we miss your input on these big Derby prep races.
Hopefully, your son’s wedding went well and your wedding speech as well.
If you make it back prior to Saturday’s big three prep races, please take the time to post your opinion on the FOY, Gotham and the San Felipe.
Thanks, Nelson.
I am a 1+1 = 2 individual. As a result, if something doesn’t compute for me. It’s extremely difficult for me to comprehend. I guess that makes me either extremely limited or unintelligent.
I was listening to two analysts critiquing a top 10 KD list. The BB trained Barnes was ranked #1. One of the analysts agreed with the ranking citing the following to be pertinent factors –
The purchase price
The hype
The undefeated record
The trainer
The above in combination do not compute for me. I am unable to determined how any of the above are contributes to ranking Barnes #1. Why?
Barnes – BB
Debut – MSW CD 5 1/2F – 1st by HD in 1:02.97 – Equibase 96
San Vicente SA 7F – 1st by 51/2L in 1:22.15 – Equibase – 97
John Hancock -BC
Debut – MSW TBD 6F – 1st by 3L in 1:09.45 -Equibase 96
Sam Davis TBD -8 1/2F – 1st by 1/2L in 1:42.27 (NSR) Equibase – 98
The only category in which the two colts cannot be compared is purchase price as John Hancock is homebred.
Both colts are undefeated, and both recorded fast times in each start. John Hancock recorded his fast time around one and two turns whereas Barnes has only raced around 1Turn.
From the trainer’s perspective, BB has the better KD record. However, over the last 5 years Brad Cox has proven to be the more successful trainer with is 2020 & 2021 Outstanding Trainer award.
What’s the significant difference between Barnes and John Hancock that resulted in one colt being ranked #1 and the other not considered for the top 10?
Nowhere in the above does 1+1=2. Those who consider me either controversial or disagreeable must recognize that the scenario above might be easy for most to understand but provides extreme difficulty for me to make sense.
I am probably lacking in intelligence or too analytical.
CORRECT…
Hi Mr Steve love yr article starting to get interesting, to me it has look of a california derby, and an Into Mischief offspring 4 of colts you hv are by him and the best Cornucopian is also one, will be interesting to watch jocks Ortiz doesn’t hv a solid derby horse, if he stays with this colt we will know he is a real top dog, a lot of late developing colts, two great stories this year return of Baffert and Coal Battle have to root a little for trainer and horse really neat.Enyot yr articles and always ready with my cup of coffee to read and enjoy thank you
Caldera will be an interesting prospect if he continues to improve.
I would have put Coal Battle higher based on his wins and performances. He may run in the Arkansas Derby and that will be interesting to see who he beats there. Sometimes all the money in the world can’t buy you the best talent. If he keeps on winning, we will see who wants him at stud?
Coal Battle is for real.
Ok
First Resort off the trail with stress fracture.
Just saw that, Tommy. I had a feeling it was bad news when he scratched out of the Battaglia. Fortunately, it’s not life threatening.
Unfortunate. Possibly was a good candidate for a Godolphin andtge Kentucky Derby.
Being reported that surgery is not required and should be back in summer or late fall.
Watching Coal Battle’s sweeping rally around horses reminded me of Monarchos Florida Derby win all those years ago back in 2001. That was an eye-catching move. Looking forward to seeing if he moves forward again when the water gets deeper.
Hi Steve
Thank you for providing another in-depth analysis on your top Derby Dozen moving forward on the 2025 Derby trail. I noticed four of your top twelve are Into Mischief colts which comes as no surprise to me. Currently, I have River Thames ranked at #1 and Sovereignty at #2, pending their match up in the FOY. I foresee a great battle between these two colts coming down the stretch to see who the top colt is moving forward.
That said, I was somewhat surprised that you made no mention of Cornucopian in your KOTD segment, who was very impressive in his maiden win this past Saturday at OP.
If you should happen to be in contact with Bob Baffert, I would appreciate knowing what his plans are for Cornucopian moving forward.
Thanks for all you do, Steve.
Thanks Bill. Being so many people are in awe of him I can only say with Baffert having three top Derby contenders I can’t include a horse with only one 6f .maiden race heading into March. I’m not sure why so many people want him in the Derby with two career starts assuming he stretches out fron 6f to 1 1/8 miles and beats a field of graded stakes horses. To be honest I wouldn’t want to see him subjected to that and compromise or jeopardize his entire career, especially when you already have 3 serious Derby horses.
Thanks for the reply, Steve.
You bring up valid points. Baffert might point Cornucopian to an AOC race down the road, with the possibility of running him in the Preakness.
Totall agree…they tried it with Taiba and it didn’t go well.
Mr. Haskin, some disregard possibly horses like him maybe requires more time to grow up,etc. Almost a sense of entitlement.
Will someone please translate this gibberish for me? I forgot my Rosetta Stone at home.
Steve I tend to agree with you.
In my opinion just too big a leap in such a short period of time.
Thoroughly enjoyed your Derby Rankings, Steve, as always. “The Life of Briley”–I love it!
Thanks very much for commenting on that. I. Am Always glad when people notice little things like that.
Love it when David beats Goliath!
It appears Cornucopian is the new flavor of the week. Year after year we see outstanding performances by first time starters only to be let down after a few more races against better competition.
Into Mischief (20 years old) has sired many good horses. Authentic’s September KD win should come with an *, Mandaloun was promoted via a DQ of Medina Spirit.
This year he has several that could show their potential on the first Saturday in May. As we all know, the KD is a free for all the first 1/2 mile evident by the results from the past few years.
Personally, I prefer to see the smaller barns have good success….i,e. Coal Battle, Burnham Square, Journalism.
If they are good enough they will… if they are not then they are what they are. I just like too see great horses perform great feats whether they are from a $2k sire or $250k sire.
Good comment. Rooting for the underdog, or the good story, does not preclude us from hoping for a truly memorable racehorse. And often the limelight reveals some cracks in the feel good story. At least in my opinion, it’s been a few years since we’ve had a truly memorable KD winner, based on performance.
Agree Zany, many “flavors if the month”. Some over zealous fans pull for them until some crash and burn.
EDIT: of
Amen to that! I hope Baffert’s horses finish further up the track than they did in 2019, when Tacitus beat ALL 3 of them to the wire.
It’s really sad to see Bob’s PR enthusiasts all over social media hyping Cornucopian. Matthew is here asserting that Bob doesn’t rush them into the Derby … just poppycock!
And most of Bob’s faithful commenters have been very critical of Irad … watch that change should Bob rush Cornucopian into a prep
Agree with you Michelle regarding Cornucopian.
Steve,
Can you specify what exactly was offensive and/or inappropriate about section of my post that were deleted?
A critique of your 12 will be accompanied by some questions and highlights of some of your decisions that a difficult to understand.
It’s a derby 12 and there is unlikely to be consensus on every ranking and decision you made.
The entire post should have been removed as the deletions made it impossible understand.
What’s the point of highlighting Brad Cox KD prep winners and his place horse without a follow up statement.
I dont make decisions for no reason. Instead of asking why Poster was not ranked like most people would do you persist in harping on the same thing ad nauseam until it becomes an annoyance, while denegrating other horses to make your repetitious point. You obviously ignored all the praise I have given Poster and have already ranked him in the top 12. To anyone who is a fan of this horse I have been waiting to clear up several issues with him that I felt were inappropriate and unnnecessary to write about before ranking him again. I spoke to Eoin Harty this morning after finally seeing him back on the worktab and he cleared up all the issues, so the horse will be ranked again next week with a full pedigree analysis why he can overcome the speed influence of his sire. As fo CP, you will no doubt ignore all this as you always do, but I am commenting on it for those who like this horse, as I do, and dont demean other horses as you did over and over in the oiginal comment. In other words, all you had to do is ask why Poster wasnt ranked without bringing other horses into it and I would have told you.
Noted!
And Quoted!
Barnes at #1 next Tuesday. Steve I can forsee it!
Certainly possible. He is the Derby favorite
I’ll stick to seeing Journalism take that top spot after the weekend. lol
Agree Mark.
What if he doesn’t prevail?
im ok if he is second and then gets 2nd again in the SA then peaks for Curlin”s first derby winner to complete his sire resume.
He has a good chance.
With the #2, #4 and #8 horses listed by Steve it looks like the San Baffert Stakes is the KD prep race of the year. With or without Sitting Bull, or excuse me, Citizen Bull, who is sitting this race out, CB will take the slightly altered Monopoly version of ‘go directly to the Santa Anita Derby, do not pass go, and do not collect $200’.
I find it more interesting of reading your comments Steve about how confident Baffert is here with both Barnes and Rodriquez. He often telegraphs his thoughts and more often than not they do come to pass.
Perhaps the more intriguing race would be the FOY with Sovereignty returning to the races after taking four years, or pardon me, four months off. He faces a tough task.
Overall, racing cards at SA, Aqueduct and Gulfstream are excellent.
You baffert groupis kill me…question: can you name 3 trainers not named baffert or pletcher? I bet you cant!
I left this absurd comment up so people can remember you. At least he got you to comment for the first time.
Steve, I tip my hat off to you, that is, if I had a hat to tip. You are a man of incredible patience. It’s just so sad and pathetic that people can’t control themselves and troll everything that they don’t agree with. People have opinions, and rest assured I don’t agree with some of them here-but I let them be and don’t answer them.
And people are free to opine along as they are respectful. But to always answer with snide remarks is pitiful. I don’t answer these trolls but thanks for putting this person in their place. They either come from another website to infect this website or come here just to provoke or start fights.
What about ‘trolls’ ordering myself and Zany to leave as if they run this blog? Contrary to what you believe you, like myself,are only a reader here- nothing more.
Ernie Poulos, Christine Janks and Tommy Tomillo
Steve: great column, especially considering your keys were sticking! Interesting that you placed Sovereignty at number one, even though he’s yet to race this year. Given his late start, I like him for the Preakness. Haven’t most Derby winners raced at 3 by the end of February? I think the last one might have been American Pharoah, who was champion at 2 and had plenty of bottom.
Love Sovereignty’s pedigree, BTW. He’s a son of Into Mischief out of an unraced Bernardini mare. What’s much more, his 2nd dam Mushka (Gr. 2 Demoiselle) and 4th dam Lakeway (Grade 1 Mother Goose) won graded stakes at 1 ⅛ miles. He descends directly on the tail-female side from 3YO filly champion and Preakness/Pimlico Oaks winner Nellie Morse.
I do not believe Sovereignty has enough bottom to perform for the KD> good comment. He might be a freak, but I do not see it.
Hi, Ms Blacktype. I hope you don’t mind if I answer your question. Yes, AP didn’t run as a 3 until the Rebel on March 14. Even though he was the juvenile champ, he had just three races as a 2. Animal Kingdom had two races as a 2, then debuted in 2011 on March 3. Super Saver raced four times as a juvenile, and he debuted the next year on March 13. Then there was Big Brown, with one race as a 2 and a 3yo debut on March 5.
I’m sure that the list is longer if I continued checking.
I wouldn’t worry about Sovereignty (or Journalism) based on their schedule up to now. I’ll focus on how well they run on Saturday and in the final preps.
I’m glad you did (see my reply to Steve’s response below). I’m not worried about Sovereignty, just taking a conservative approach, as I’m sure Bill Mott will.
Bill Mott is one of the greatest horsemen of all time. It will be a special occasion when he wins a derby with a first-place finisher.
Ditto on Mott! His ego doesn’t require him to be ‘loudest in the room’.
Journalism hasnt raced this year either
Yes, but Journalism last raced in December, not October. To reply to Tony’s post (Yay! a discussion), I don’t see Sovereignty in the same category as AP, Big Brown, or even Animal Kingdom as of now, but he may already be better than Super Saver, who never won another race.
Much to unpack.
it appears I am the only one that is of the opinion that Admiral Dennis ‘ 5th place performance in the Rebel was noteworthy.
As per Equibase, he trailed by 24L as a result of his horrendous start. He erased 17L of the deficit to finish only 7L away at the end. It’s not outside the realm of possibility that he would have been the winner with even start.
Patch Adams finished 4th by 2 1/2L in the Southwest completed in a pedestrian time of 1:45.86. Sandman was 2nd in said KD prep. He returned in the Rebel to finished 3rd. The final time for the rebel on a superfast surface was 1:43.01.
Chancer McPatrick average win margin a little over 1L He is colt that has to hard ridden to get into contention and his stretch run is that of a grinder. Hiss graded stakes wins is noteworthy
Brad Cox –
John Handcock – winner of Sam Davis
Tappan Street – 2nd Holy Bull
Disco Time – winner of the Lecomte
Admiral Dennis is slow. His PPs at first glance indicate a stalker, but he was chasing slow paces. Then he got a fast pace in the Rebel. I do not see him as Derby material.
Hi Steve, Have you spoke to Bob about his plans with CORNUCOPIAN ?
Would be a bad decision to rush him.
Not yet. Right now I’m just focusing on his Derby horses.
Based on your comment, “just focusing on his Derby horses”, is it safe to say that you don’t consider Cornucopian a Derby horse?
Thanks Steve.
That’s what i’m thinking bill
Hey Mark
Hopefully, Baffert ships Cornucopian to Oaklawn to compete in the Arkansas Derby. Based on his performance (if he does enter) we’ll see if he is a major Derby prospect.
I for one believe Cornucopian could be a very special colt moving forward.
Let’s see how Corn has come out of his race, if well, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him show up in a mile allowance race, and then ship to a big race-Ark derby or Blue grass. Just a thought
Bill, On Feb. 17th Cornucopian was 55-1 at William Hill. Today he is 28-1 .
Mark
I’m not surprised to see the odds dropping that significantly.
why would he do that off of a maiden win when he has several others ready and fit for the derby? i don;t see him putting him any of the last big preps and holding him untill later classic runs.
Thank you Steve
Steve, great analysis. Looking forward to this Saturday with the San Felipe and the FOY.
I believe there are a couple of minor typos that were overlooked. Citizen Bull “made his impact as a two year old”. Burnham Square will be running in the FOY….not San Felipe.
Journalism should run a good race even though he will be facing two loaded BB charges. Curious to see what Sovereignty does in the FOY.
Thanks. Actually should be 3 year old. Having big trouble with stuck keys, Fixed both.
Steve – What happened to Disco Time?
Havent heard. I dont text with Cox
Hey STEVE did you make a typo with Burnham Square? He is running in the FOY not San Felipe.
sorry on the double post
Having had my own vision setback. I can assure you Steve knows where Burnham is running—it’s difficult at best, to type out posts!
Yes I fixed it. Thanks.
Hey STEVE did you make a typo with Burnham Square? He is running in the FOY not San Felipe
I don’t need to see wins by Journalism or Sovereignty on Saturday because I’m not sure that either one will be in the best spots for themselves this week. But good runs will keep me interested in both.
Good news that East Avenue is still on the trail. I look forward to seeing what he does next.
Good for Coal Battle at #7. He beat what was in front of him even if I see that million dollar plus field as suspect.
I come back several times each week to re-read Steve Haskin’s Derby Rankings.
Thank you, Mr. Haskin. I know you have a lot going on right now. Wishing you the best.
I will have the same procedure in my future according to my optometrist.
Thanks and good luck
I think one horse if you like Sandman from the rebel is Publisher He was gobbling up ground just like Sandman. When i saw Coal Battle make that sweeping turn, he was flying and i was so excited for Lonnie as well as my win ticket lol. The thing i love about this colt all along is Lonnie is old school and this horse is an iron horse. I was actually surprised he said he was going to run in the Ark Derby , seeing he ran him fresh from the Southwest and it being his first derby horse. Me personally if i had gone that many yrs and finally got one , i think i wouldn’t risk missing a derby start, but that is just who he is as it is a great story. Hoping Journalism takes another step forward this weekend , he is another i am most excited about. Thanks again for another great read.
Thanks . I wrote something on him but it didnt make it in, I have added it.
I thought Sandman was way overrated compared to Coal Battle and Madaket Road in the Rebel Mark. I did have Publisher in my superfectas though. Not only did he stumble/bobble at the start in the Southwest, he also had to wait for room numerous times before the turn and on the turn, and then when he did get some running room, he was shut off and checked inside in mid stretch, might have even clipped heels. He wouldn’t have won but… He was a deserving longshot in the Rebel, although I expected him to be more like 15 or 20-1 rather than 10-1. Not sure he’s a Derby horse, and he’s still a maiden, but he’s definitely worth watching as a potential longshot for superfectas. The road will get much tougher from here. He at least needs a clean trip so we can get some idea of how much talent he has.
I still think Sandman is Derby timber, he has been lightly worked and with the freezing g conditions–he may have been compromised some—he came running, is just a runner, and finishes….
Well Matt all of them have been compromised by the weather. I Had Coal Battle and Sandman and Publisher as my exacta box and both came flying so i dont think they were compromised by training, not to mention Coal Battle trains there. I think the thing about Sandman i fear, is not the talent but he is huge and does not manuever as easy and being a closer it compromising his chances if others get the jump or if a lead horse keeps going.
The big Derby field should benefit Sandman…pace is almost always truly fast—my point about Sandman is he hadfew works—Coal Battle had many–which is why I included him in my double (that paid well)…but even Coal Battle was compromised some–staying in the barn unable to train—you can expect both to even run better next time—most of the Sunday runners were locals and many of the races were won by shippers who hadn’t had training interruptions, so if you liked Sandman and Coal Battle…on Sunday—I think they will run even better next time…
loved them both as well as PUBLISHER
Hi Steve and all.
Mr Briley’s Grandson made the statement on social media that he broke Coal Battle to ride and that he has more gears that he has not used because he has not needed them.
I am sure you saw the filly that came flying and almost caught Luxor Cafe. We shall see but I am not convinced Luxor Cafe wants the Derby distance.
Vekoma is proving to be a good freshman sire. I am very interested in the UAE Derby.
Forever Young will probably go to Dubai to train up for the Dubai World Cup. On a side note that was one of the best races I have ever watched (Forever Young and Romantic Warrior).
Hoping that I can at least get a top 5 for the Derby after this weekend’s preps.
Have a great week everyone and I look forward as always reading everyone’s comments and opinions.
Of my top 6 at least 2 wil lose Saturday so a good chance Coal Battle will move up a couple of spots next week. Can you message me what his grandsons name is and where he posted that. I have my own personal interest in this horse which I will tell next week.
Yes I will.
Forever Young is piling up cash.
Yes Lynda, I wasn’t overwhelmed with the Hyacinth Stakes as a prep for the Kentucky Derby but the Fukuryu Stakes on March 29 at Nakayama racetrack over 9f should have more promise.
Just six for the San Felipe, three of them from the BB barn.
Jose Ortiz gets back on Locked in the Big Cap. Did Johnny V choose to stay at Gulfstream to ride River Thames? Always tough to judge jockey musical chairs without knowing what goes on behind the scenes.
Journalism will take on two of Bob’s top three—and both will likely not be dueling with each other—I envision Rodriguez getting to the front and then being very tough—I want to see Journalism finish—this is a small field–with some very nice horses..
Hi Steve – I would love to see Journalism Do no worse than 2nd in the San Felipe, because like everyone else, he needs points. He usually breaks well and I expect him to sit a good stalking trip . He will be rolling late and I like his experience he has at 2 turns. I saw an interview with Aaron Wellman and he said Journalism has filled out and has that Star ⭐️ Quality about him. In the FOY I’m with you on Keep It Easy. One of the longshot runners is expected to scratch leaving only a field of 7. I like KIE outside post where Cory Lanerie can get into a stalking position and survey the situation at the break. He’s coming out of sprints , so I expect him to be up close and get a jump on Burnham Square and Sovereignty. He needs points and am hoping for a second or an upset. Let’s hope he thrives at 2 turns and his pedigree can do the rest in the stretch. I’m high on him as well as Journalism. These are my 2 primary KDFW horses.
I saw that interview. Aron is one of my favorite people. Very sharp. Baffert is so high on Barnes in this race. If he’s right I do hope journalism can at least pick up the points because this race .might be too short for him. But he’s fresh and will be pretty close to the pace.
What happened to Bullard?
I wrote what happened to him. Fever.
Really nice analysis of derby contenders with loads of potential but little else to go on. I can’t argue the top two. They are solid. But it’s a sign of the times when the two best have raced only three times and have yet to make their 3 year old debuts as we head into the big March races. The talk of the town is Coal Battle, and his 98 Bris figure from a stunning effort in the Rebel sure deserves attention. I can’t find any news about Poster’s next race. I’m figuring the Tampa Bay Derby.
91 Beyer. Want to see Thoro-graph
Steve: Not that impressed by any of the contenders so far, but (as was already noted) very impressed by the Life Of Briley reference. Here’s hoping Chancer Mcpatrick shows up with a nice prep in the TBD.
Buzz
Where do we get the Thoro-graph figures? I’d be interested to see those for Coal Battle as well. I have a soft spot for the horses from more humble beginnings…