2025 Kentucky Derby Rankings – Week 6
Welcome to a historic “first” in the Derby Rankings , where we have broken new ground with a dead heat for the top spot, much to the dismay of some I am sure. How about if all the posters weigh in and try to break the tie and we’ll see who the Rankings Residents rate as the true No. 1, not that I will listen to you. However I did have a true No. 1… for about an hour…! ~ Steve Haskin
Derby Rankings: March 3, 2025 – Week 6
By Steve Haskin
1—Sovereignty (Bill Mott, Into Mischief – Crowned, by Bernardini)
1—Journalism (Mike McCarthy, Curlin – Mopotism, by Uncle Mo)
I have been publishing a Kentucky Derby rankings, whether under the name Derby Watch for DRF, Derby Dozen for Blood-Horse, or Derby Rankings for Secretariat.com for the past 33 years and I have never been unable to separate the top two horses competing for the No. 1 spot…until now. And I will explain why. It goes back to last November when I wrote a column on my five under-the-radar horses to watch for the Kentucky Derby, two of whom were Sovereignty and Journalism, both big powerful, long-striding stretch runners. With neither having run this year and debuting on the same day I thought if I alternated giving the top spot to each of them the past two weeks they would sort things out in their respective stakes. Figuring that neither would be 100 percent after missing training, especially Sovereignty off a four-month layoff, I would have been happy with a strong second place finish, especially with each race having a brilliant horse awho would control the pace and be difficult to catch, especially in a small field. And I still felt that as they turned into the stretch of the Fountain of Youth and San Felipe Stakes. But both races turned into a virtual replay of each other, with first Sovereignty and then Journalism an hour later running down the leader with a strong final sixteenth in about :06 flat. Journalism looks to be the handier of the two, but both are relentless when they hone in on a target. Beyer figs going 1 1/16 miles on March 1 don’t phase me at all, All I know is that we had finally found not one, but two, true No. 1’s, who even graduated from the same school.
Not only are they similar on the track, both colts were broken and received their early training at Bridlewood Farm in Ocala, Florida. “When both colts were yearlings and early 2-year-olds they were very different and needed to take different paths to get to where they are now,” said Bridlewood’s trainer Joan Murphy, who had previously trained Horses of the Year Cody’s Wish and Gun Runner at the farm. “Journalism was mature mentally and balanced from day one and more advanced. He wanted to keep going forward and it would have been easy to just let him, but I don’t like to keep pounding on them so we took pauses, letting him go and then backing him down a little. Even when he breezed with others he did it like an older horse. With Sovereignty he was a top tier horse physically and mentally. He always had a great mind and the frame was there, but he had to come into himself, and we develop them in paths tailored for what is best for each individual. He just needed me to respect him and let him blossom in his own time” Murphy ranked Journalism so high on her report for that Bridlewood partnership they bought back into him after he sold. If both colts continue their winning ways in their final prep they would come to Kentucky as great East vs West Derby rivals right up there with Sunday Silence and Easy Goer and Swaps and Nashua. And so we now have powerhouses with impeccable pedigrees and dynamite closing kicks on both coasts, with Citizen Bull looking to remind everyone who the champ is. The Derby trail has begun.
3—Citizen Bull (Bob Baffert, Into Mischief – No Joke, by Distorted Humor)
Before we neatly line up all the pieces in the china shop, let’s not forget there is still a Bull out there just waiting to run wild and make a mess of things. And with three consecutive stakes victories around two turns he shouldn’t be quite as easy to catch as Barnes who was coming off only two sprints. Even with all the hype surrounding Barnes, Baffert has always considered Citizen Bull the top dog, and with Barnes, Rodriguez, and Madaket Road all getting beat the past two weeks it may be up to the champ to get Baffert back to Churchill Downs following his three-year exile, unless Barnes especially can bounce back with a two-turn race under his belt. Citizen Bull hasn’t gotten much respect for a two-time Grade 1 winner with an Eclipse Award trophy on the mantle, but the truth is no one has been able to get even close to him, and with the Southern California 3-year-olds barely able to fill a race it is all Baffert and Journalism, and the smaller field the better for Citizen Bull when he assumedly clashes with Journalism in the Santa Anita Derby. His big question will come in Kentucky when that five-horse field with no challengers on a speed-conducive track turns into a 20-horse field of graded stakes horses. But for now who really wants any part of him other than Journalism, who looks to be versatile enough to at least keep him occupied early.
4—Coal Battle (Lonnie Briley, Coal Front – Wolfblade, by Midshipman)
I am going to share a little personal story, but it does lead somewhere, and there is more info on him in KOTD. On June 17, 1956, I was 9 years old when my father took me to Ebbetts Field to see my beloved Brooklyn Dodgers play a doubleheader with the Milwaukee Braves. We sat in the grandstand behind third base and all I can remember is this one Braves player constantly rounding third after hitting one home run after another, one of which I later learned was the only ball ever hit over the left field roof at Ebbetts Field. That player, with his three homers, left such an indelible impression on me and had such a great name he became my childhood hero, right up there with Gil Hodges. I just loved seeing and saying his name – Joe Adcock. Many years later I learned he was a prominent Thoroughbred breeder in Louisiana. Fast forward nearly 70 years from that day at Ebbetts Field and here I am writing about a little rags to riches colt from the Louisiana bush tracks with four straight stakes wins on the road to the Kentucky Derby named Coal Battle, who was bred by Joe Adcock’s son Jay. “My dad was an all-star, hit four home runs in one game, and won the World Series,” Jay said. “But he would always say to me, ‘Son, except for family, the best times of my life and my biggest thrills have been watching our horses run; you just can’t beat it.’ He was right, and here we are hopefully heading to the Kentucky Derby with this little colt who just keeps winning. Nothing like this has ever happened to me. I think my dad would be so ecstatic and so proud. It shows the little guy still has a chance. All I and my good buddy (co-breeder Hume Wornall) can do now is keep our fingers crossed.”
5—Captain Cook (Rick Dutrow, Practical Joke – Pow Wow Wow, by Indian Charlie)
Judging from his absence on most everyone’s podcast rankings it would seem I may be overhyping this horse, so I am going to resort solely on stats to show why I just can’t find any flaws in him, other than the usual who did he beat and no horse from the New York winter circuit ever wins the Derby. I did address the former last week. First off, we should remember that while many of these horses were already well established or preparing for the Derby trail last November he was a one-start maiden going through the sales ring. But since being turned over to Dutrow he improved his Beyer figure 12 points going from six to seven furlongs, then improved it 11 points going from seven furlongs to 1 1/8 miles in his stakes debut to reach a solid 94. His Brisnet figures climbed from an 83 to a 93 to a 100, one of only a few triple-digit speed figures. And most impressive has been his Thoro-Graph progression from a “9 to 6 ¾ to 2,” with that most recent figure being the fastest this year going two turns. After pressing a blazing :45 1/5 half going seven furlongs and winning off by 9 ¼ lengths he then pressed a sluggish :49 half going nine furlongs and drawing off to a 2 ¼-length victory over a track so slow the DRF track variant was a 36, which is as slow as it gets, and he still came home his final eighth in :12 3/5 after going four-wide on the first turn and remaining wide every step of the way. In the old DRF past performances if a horse’s speed rating, which has since been slighty adjusted, and track variant added up to 100 it was considered an excellent race. Captain Cook’s Withers added up to 116. If all this doesn’t point to him being an improving serious horse he’s doing an awfully good job impersonating one.
6—Barnes (Bob Baffert, Into Mischief – All American Dream , by American Pharoah)
He did lose a shoe at the start and definitely needed the race, so you can’t get too down on him. But I still have no idea what to do with him. He ran pretty much the same kind of race as River Thames and Tappan Street and any other lightly raced horse trying to stretch out his speed for the first time. Normally a horse like that wouldn’t make the Top 12 after losing a clear lead. But he has never been like any other horse, having gotten way too much support in the futures and having that big glitzy price tag and appealing name. But is he simply a brilliant, talented horse, of which too much was expected too soon? Yes he got a 105 Beyer in defeat, but we already knew he was fast. A 105 isn’t bad for a horse with three shoes. But this is about the Kentucky Derby. We just have to accept the fact he’s not some mythical steed or the next Pegasus and look at him as you would any lightly raced unproven horse who needed a two-turn race, lost a shoe, and was beaten by an exceptional horse who has stardom written all over him. I thought the way he was being trained he would take back and let one of his stablemates set the pace and learn how to close. But he went to the front, which would have told us nothing about him we didn’t already know, and as it turned out left him a sitting duck for Journalism’s powerful kick. But to his credit he still kept running hard after being passed. With Citizen Bull heading to the Santa Anita Derby we will see what Baffert decides to do. He would seem very live in the Arkansas Derby; that’s where his broodmare sire learned how to rate off the pace. For now there is just enough of that hype still left, as well as talent, to consider him one race away from being a legitimate Derby horse.
7—Flood Zone (Brad Cox, Frosted – Curls For Girls , by Curlin)
This looks like the pick-up of the year and it would be something if this Florida-bred maiden winner who once RNA’d for $24,000 as a yearling turns out to be the one who buys Cox’s ticket to the Derby, with all the talented 3-year-olds he has. He went into the Gotham with some fascinating possibilities. Racing twice at Gulfstream against Florida-breds for trainer Victor Barboza, Jr., he finished a solid second at 11-1 before getting Lasix. He proceeded to romp by 5 ¼ lengths going 6 ½ furlongs at 16-1 and his Thoro-Graph number went haywire, skyrocketing from a “15 ½” to a “3 ½,” with his Equibase speed figure going from a 64 to a 95. The morning after the race his jockey Reylu Gutierrez went to the barn to see him and was told by Barboza that the colt had been sold. He said it was as if he had lost part of his soul. “I just had to reach out to whoever bought him and do whatever I could to stay on him, he’s such an amazing horse,” Gutierrez said. He obviously did a good job because he was back aboard when Cox sent him up to New York for the one-mile Gotham Stakes two months later. The questions were was that enough time to prevent huge bounce after such a dramatic improvement on his speed figures and how will he run coming off Lasix? The colt was emphatic with his answer, outdueling two horses from the start, including the highly regarded undefeated Sand Devil, and dawing away in the stretch to score by 3 ¼ lengths at a generous 17-1. Although the final time was a slow 1:39 3/5 over a dead track, it was significanty faster than the Busher Stakes and Stymie for older horses right before. So what exactly are we dealing with? He has classic horses throughout his pedigree, which we will discuss next week, and he is improving at an alarming rate. You just never know where they’re going to come from and when.
8—Burnham Square (Ian Wilkes, Liam’s Map – Linda, by Scat Daddy)
I have to give him another chance after his fourth-place finish in the Fountain of Youth. Although he won the Holy Bull he looked to be struggling over this track and had no acceleration on the turn when he was asked to keep up with the winner who blew by him. This wasn’t the same horse we saw last time, and it wasn’t until the final sixteenth that he finally found his best stride and was reaching out with good extension to be beaten only three lengths and was a tiger galloping out. Too little too late. That is it for him at Gulfstream and Wilkes now will point him for the Blue Grass Stakes. He can use the time after running in both the Holy Bull and Fountain of Youth, something trainers rarely do. Give Wilkes credit for stepping out of the box when most trainers would have gone straight to the Florida Derby. Of the Holy Bull winners since Go For Gin who went on to run well in the Kentucky Derby, Barbaro (first) and Audible (third) skipped the Fountain of Youth to wait for the Florida Derby, and Kentucky Derby runner-up Closing Argument didn’t run again until the Blue Grass. Wilkes felt Burnham Square needed to run back, but that was the fastest pace he’s encountered and being fairly close up it might have taken something away from his closing kick. Whatever the reason, the track or the pace, it didn’t work, but Wilkes did get more bottom under him and will have a fresher horse and a longer stretch at Keeneland.
9—Poster (Eoin Harty, Munnings – Pin Up, by Tapit)
He returned to the worktab with a five-furlong breeze in 1:02 2/5 at Turfway Park. Harty said he’s been gaining weight and with First Resort sidelined he now likely will point for the Jeff Ruby Steaks at his home track, which has produced some big Derby performances the past few years. He hasn’t been talked about much and was dismissed at 70-1 in the latest Future Wager, but, Munnings or no Munnings, he has never run shorter than a mile, his four starts have been at four different tracks from Kentucky to New York to Florida, and he’s already won the Remsen Stakes at 1 1/8 miles over a slow track. I thought his third-place finish in the Sam F. Davis Stakes at quirky Tampa Bay was a huge effort, as he rallied from 10th to finish a fast-closing third, beaten only 2 ¾ lengths over a speed biased track. He has also won twice on the grass, once battling head and head on the lead. So he has proven to be extremely versatile when it comes to track surface and running style. And he does have enough stamina in his female family to neutralize the speed of Munnings, while using both to his advantage. He just has the look of a stayer and being a very late May 20 foal he is only going to keep maturing and improving.
10—Chancer McPatrick (Chad Brown, Mckinzie – Bernardreamy, by Bernardini)
It’s time to look ahead to Saturday’s Tampa Bay Derby, which has been his long term target. The good news is that he turned in another strong half-mile work at Payson Park, this time going in :48 4/5, fourth fastest of 55 works at the distance. But having four half-mile works in the last month and coming back after having an ankle chip removed will he be fully cranked or at least cranked enough to get a lot out of the race? Wait, didn’t we all ask the same thing about Sovereignty and Journalism? I’m sure Brown has him where he wants him, and what is most important is that we see that same explosive closing kick we saw in the Grade 1 Hopeful and Champagne. After coming up flat in the Breeders’ Cup, he should finally answer the questions, was it the two turns or Del Mar or the ankle chip? If he comes up big in this race and on this track those questions won’t mean a thing.
11—Patch Adams (Brad Cox, Into Mischief – Well Humored, by Distorted Humor)
I still have that gut feeling he is a live Derby contender, who also is pointing for Saturday’s Tampa Bay Derby. And his last work on Saturday, in which he drilled five furlongs in a bullet 1:01 2/5, indicates he is sharp and fit and sitting on a huge race. I mentioned last week he could be the steal of the Future Wager at 37-1 after being the 12-1 second choice before his fourth-place finish in the Southwest Stakes took a lot of the shine off, But I believe that was a far better performance than it looked. And while we are excusing defeats in two-turn debuts coming off a spectacular sprint victory, no 2-year-old had ever run a faster seven furlongs than he did, getting a 98 Beyer and “1 ½” Thoro-Graph number. Then he stumbles coming out of the gate in the Southwest Stakes, gets caught in tight quarters between two horses while rallying down the stretch and is beaten 2 ½ lengths. I certainly will give him another shot on Saturday to see what he can do with a good trip and that last race under his belt.
12—Sandman (Mark Casse, Tapit – Distorted Music, by Distorted Humor)
There isn’t much more to say about him. I could have put one of a dozen horses in the final spot, and he does have to show he can win one of these. But it’s only going to get harder from here. However, he is improving and is starting to patent that big late run and he at least has proven to be a hard-knocking horse who always tries. And that is the type who is capable of picking up a piece of it in the Derby. I actually was impressed how much ground he closed from a long way back in the Rebel and how he swung out wide after running into traffic approaching the top of the stretch. And he did close into a :06 2/5 final sixteenth. Even if he proves to be a cut below the top tier horses, he does look like a money maker and there is nothing wrong with that.
KNOCKING ON THE DOOR
Dale Romans said KEEP IT EASY, who was eased in the Fountain of Youth, came out of the race with a “small problem,” but will be OK.
It’s been a hard luck year for OWEN ALMIGHTY, who finished first in the Pasco Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs only to be disqualified to fifth and then was out-dueled by JOHN HANCOCK in the Sam F. Davis Stakes, losing by a half-length. He likely will try to change his luck in the Tampa Bay Derby Saturday and turned in a sharp five=furlong work in 1:00 3/5.
Todd Pletcher has been nibbling his way back into the Derby picture with several late developers and we saw one last Thursday when Mike Repole’s GRANDE scored his second career victory in as many starts, winning a 1 1/8-mile allowance race at Gulfstream by 2 ½ lengths after stalking the early pace and drawing clear in the upper stretch. The son of Curlin covered the distance in 1:50 flat and with his pedigree should have no problem stretching out to classic distances. He has 10 classic winners who won 19 classics in his first five generations, and his third dam is by Derby and Preakness winner Pleasant Colony (by His Majesty), out of a daughter of Belmont winner Stage Door Johnny. This is the same cross that produced Kentucky Derby winner Go For Gin, who is by His Majesty’s son Cormorant, out of a Stage Door Johnny mare.
If they are thinking Derby he will have to finish first or second in a 100-point stakes and then go into the big race with only three career starts, but at least he’ll have two nine-furlong races under him and a ton of stamina in his pedigree.
Pletcher also has VASSIMO, who we featured in detail a few weeks ago. Don’t be fooled by his fourth-place finish in that Risen Star freak show engineered by Magnitude. No one had a prayer in that race and he actually re-broke, turning what looked like a last-finish into a big late rally to hit the board. This was a huge step up in class and he got a lot out of it. Pletcher has given him a few extra days to bounce back and will add blinkers in his next work to help keep him focused, as Irad Ortiz said he can be like a big kid out there in the morning. The Florida Derby likely will be next, but Pletcher obviously is now leaving all options open.
A couple of trips to Tampa Bay and the addition of Lasix seem to have done wonders for the Shug McGaughey-trained STATESMAN, who has won two in a row and now could be ready to hit the Derby trail. The question is how will he handle far better competiton and coming off Lasix. I would imagine the Wood Memorial or Blue Grass Stakes are the likely options.
Before Saturday’s big races I actually did see the kind of Derby horse I look for, who has that push-button acceleration and ability to quickly distance himself from his opposition. Unfortunately it was in England and that horse, OPERA BALLO, is not, at least yet, Triple Crown nominated. But he did win the one-mile Road to the Kentucky Derby condition race on Kempton’s synthetic surface, is owned by Godolphin, is bred to go 1 ¼ miles, and displayed an electrifying turn of foot to surge clear and draw off to a four-length victory to remain undefeated. Now we’ll just have to see if they take advantage of the Derby points he earned or go for the 2,000 Guineas. But this looks like an exciting horse.
It was good to see EAST AVENUE back on the worktab after his shocking and puzzling performance in the Risen Star. With no excuse given for his sudden shift into reverse, Brendon Walsh and Godophin are going ahead with him for the simple reason, why not? He not only looks fine he turned in a strong half-mile work in :48 1/5 at Fair Grounds. The logical target would be the Blue Grass Stakes over the same track on which he romped in last year’s Breeders’ Futurity.
No one thinks out of the box more than Kenny McPeek, as we have seen with Swiss Skydiver in the Preakness, Thorpedo Anna in the Travers, and taking home $1 million for finishing fifth in the Saudi Cup with Rattle n Roll. After finishing a fast-closing third in last week’s Battaglia Memorial, MAXIMUM PROMISE will run next in the Jeff Ruby Steaks, and after that McPeek, who believes he has a future on grass, has him nominated not only for the Kentucky Derby, but the English Derby. And if anyone is going to tackle the tricky Tattenham Corner and Epsom’s uphills and downhills it is McPeek. He also still feels HYPNUS, a troubled seventh in the Rebel Stakes in only his second career start, is a talented colt and will point him for either the Louisiana Derby or Blue Grass Stakes.
Getting back to COAL BATTLE, he continues to impress on his Thoro-Graph pattern. After starting his career with three straight figs of “13 ½,” he’s gone from a “10 to 8 ¾, to 6 ¾, to a 3” in the Rebel. At this point Lonnie Briley is undecided if he will run in the Arkansas Derby or go straight to the Kentucky Derby. While his Thoro-Graph numbers say another two-to-three point improvement off that “3” can win the Derby, doing it off that long a layoff and not having run farther than 1 1/16 miles is something that hasn’t been done in modern times.
The latest on FEROCIOUS is that several days after the Holy Bull when he had his first gallop, the rider felt he wasn’t moving 100 percent up front. When his right leg swelled up he was diagnosed with a cellulitis infection. After being treated it was revealed he had suffered a unique muscle tear of the triceps of that right leg. Having discovered the cause of his problem and treating it, there is a good chance he will be fine in 60 to 90 days. He should be released from the clinic sometime later in the week. This colt, who needed to mature mentally and get more focused last year, took a great deal of criticism after his performance in the Holy Bull and deserves the chance to get the opportunity to show he is the horse many people were so high on early in his career.
Racing historian, author, and award-winning retired journalist for the Daily Racing Form and The Blood-Horse, Steve Haskin was inducted into the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame’s Media Roll of Honor in 2016. Known for his racing knowledge and insightful prose, he has been an exclusive contributor to Secretariat.com since 2020.
Hi Mr. Steve,
What do you think about Coal Battle today after his third place in the Arkansas Derby?
Where’s Rodriguez?
My top Six….
Journalism—-Two turn dynamo that reaches..
Sovereignty—Deep closer with huge kick..
Barnes—-Big colt, with speed and can carry it…
Sandman—Another deep closer—who always shows up, and still has upside..
Burnham Road—-I just think this guy will relish the tenth furlong!..
Coal Battle—-Keepds on improving….while winning …the kind of horse you cannot dismiss..
Interesting Matthew, that you don’t have Citizen Bull in your top 6. I wouldn’t either, which I find interesting. I like too many to have a top 6.
If forced to come up with three I’d probably have, in any order – Coal Battle, Journalism, Sandman- gritty determined types in a 20 horse rodeo.
Mr. Haskin. Best Wishes for speedy recovery!
Hill Road finished a credible 3rd in the TBD. A positive performance was all I wanted to see, and he delivered.
It is obvious he will be better for the run. I hope the connections will continue their quest for the roses. One of the 9F prep on closer friendly surface should see him adding to his 16 points and get into the KD.
It is clear the colt hasn’t inherited Quality Road’s tactical speed. However, he might have inherited the stamina of his dm sire Lemon Drop Kid. He passed the winner and 2nd place finishers in the TBD rather quickly in the gallop out whilst appearing to be full of energy.
He doesn’t push horses.
Comment intended for below regarding Mott.
Here’s hoping your eye surgery goes well, Steve, while your recovery time is swift. Rest.
I agree. My prayers and best wishes to you, Steve.
Thank you David.
With Praetor winning so impressively today, I’ll revise my top Derby Dozen by dropping Bullard and adding Praetor. My revised top twelve are as follows, (in preferential order)
1) Journalism
2) Sovereignty
3) Citizen Bull
4) Barnes
5) Coal Battle
6) Praetor
7)Baeza
8) River Thames
9) Getaway Car
10) Captain Cook
11) John Hancock
12) Grande
I like your top 6 Bill. You would think Praetor might try a 100 point prep in APR after that effort to try to qualify for the KY Derby. A second , with 50 points , would get him in.
Hello Joe! Horse who prevailed in Tampa Derby is talented, in my opinion is better placed for Pat Day Mile. Lynch is a good trainer-obviously knowing the horse better than the average fan.
Agree Mike. Owen Almighty most likely tops out at 1 1/8. The Pat Day Mile would be in his wheelhouse.
Agreed.
It is very likely that John Hancock will be scratched from the Virginia Derby and point to the Louisiana Derby the following Saturday instead…
That would greatly benefit Getaway Car against the other 8 in the field. The son of Curlin will be the odds-favourite on the merits of his battles against Citizen Bull and Journalism in California… His Sunland Derby was encouraging as well…
Rapture (Uncle Mo-Positively by Bernardini) is an intriguing one in the Virginia Derby with Flavien Prat in the irons for Brad Cox… I really don’t see him winning but he could collect some Derby points there against viable long shots like Authentic Gallop, American Promise and Omaha Omaha.
If John Hancock does scratch, I think Rapture has a real shot to place or show. I like Getaway Car to collect more cash and Derby points over this field, which is loaded with horses who’ve finished out of the money in more prestigious stakes.
After reviewing the GPS data for the Tampa Bay Derby I realize that Chancer McPatrick’s (3-y-o) debut was actually pretty good.
Of Course one can see that Irad Ortiz Jr. and Owen Almighty had already won the race at the start taking full advantage of the PP1 and dashing to an uncontested lead.
Chancer McPatrick was not as fast at the first furlong but he certainly was moving faster than the front runner from the 1.5 furlongs to the 3.5 furlong mark; but OA enjoyed a breather from that point to the mile post and had so much in reserve that finished in 5.841; an important note, however, is that Chancer McPatrick was even faster in that final 1/16 with a scintillating 5.692 seconds.
Considering that Chancer McPatrick was coming off a 4-month hiatus, this performance puts him in a great position to move forward perhaps in the Blue Grass Stakes on April 5…
I don’t know if Chad Brown will keep the blinkers as it met its goal of making him closer to the pace and still let Chancer to finish with great energy…
So, I see Chancer McPatrick being elevated by Steve in his upcoming ranking… his numbers yesterday against very disadvantage settings are pretty encouraging.
This confidence is letting me preserve my reverence to the Champagne Stakes…
Nelson, thanks for sharing this spicy bit of information. I haven’t given up on Chancer as yet, just want to see him show real improvement from two to three.
Praetor, by Into Mischief, out of a Curlin mare, is entered in the 9th race, at GP today.
Having not raced in five months, it remains to be seen if Chad Brown has Praetor fully cranked for this $75K AOC one mile race. In the event Praetor has an impressive winning performance, the Florida Derby might be an option moving forward.
He closed at 171-1 in Derby Futures Pool 4, so I would think those that have him at those odds will be anxiously awaiting the outcome of this race. Currently, he’s listed at 4/5 in today’s 9th race. The race goes off at 5:08 Eastern.
Safe trips to all.
Praetor is paying 2 to 5 right now…with Kinetic Control at 7/2…
Praetor was really impressive winning after more than 5 months on the bench.
The son of Into Mischief was always in control clocking 23.42, 45.84, 1:10.72, 1:23.29 and completing the mile in a respectable 1:36.59 in hand.
Praetor used Lasix for the first time for this easy win ….let’s see what Chad Brown decide to do with this talented runner…
This crop is turning to be a really good one collectively…!
With Praetor’s impressive win today, I can picture Andre Linoge jumping with joy clutching his Pool 4 wager, at 171-1.
Good luck in the Florida Derby, Andre.
I am not following … is Andre one of the owners of Praetor?
and what is that 171 to 1 ?
Seems like your post was directed to another blog … Ha ha!
On March 6th, I posted a comment about Praetor running in the 9th race, today. On March 7th, Andre Linoge posted a comment to me stating he had a wager on Praetor, in Pool 4, at 171-1. He asked me if I wanted a piece of the action, I replied, most definitely, just let me know where to send the money.
I’m sure he was just joking, although I wish he was serious.
And no, he’s not one of the owners.
Thanks for the reply Bill … all makes sense now!
I was down with the flu and missed your enticing exchanges on March 6 and 7…
Good luck with Praetor down the road…
Thanks, Nelson
Hopefully, you’ve recovered from the flu.
I was very happy with Praetor today and hopefully he will get his shot. Thanks for the well wishes Bill, although I believe it will be The Blue Grass or Wood Memorial.
You’re welcome, Andre
Wherever the connections decide to point Praetor for his next outing, I ‘m
hopeful he earns enough points to make the Derby starting gate.
At last count, there are eight Into Mischief prospects on the Derby trail, including Praetor. The other seven are, Sovereignty, Citizen Bull, Barnes, Hypnus, Tappan Street, Cornucopian and Patch Adams.
However, it appears Patch Adams could be better suited for sprints and middle-distance type races, IMO.
Good luck with Praetor moving forward.
RE: Owen Almighty
Payton Boersma, Chief Operating Officer at Flying Dutchmen, stated the following, “He’s going to be really tough going into that Derby. The Kentucky Derby of course”.
It appears there’s already some serious arm twisting going on to convince Brian Lynch to take a shot in the KD. Irad Ortiz Jr. was very high on Owen Almighty’s performance in the Tampa Bay Derby, with a few positive comments following the race.
OA has the points, why not take a shot?
The owners of Endlessly said the same thing last year after he won the Jeff Ruby. He’d never run on the dirt before, just turf and synthetic. But they opted to run in the Derby instead of the American Turf despite the trainer saying he didn’t take to the dirt. Because they had the points and why not take a shot?
He didn’t run well, then came back in June in the G1 Belmont Derby and ran last. He hasn’t run since. Sometimes horses can run up the track and be no worse for wear, and sometimes asking a horse to do something like that completely derails them and wrecks their year or career. And you give up the chance to run in a race you have a good shot in like the Pat Day Mile.
Your points are well taken, MaiyaDay. However, drawing an analogy between Endlessly and Praetor may be somewhat premature. I’m confident that Praetor’s connections will make the right decision moving forward.
edit: drawing an analogy between Endlessly and Owen Almighty may be somewhat premature. I’m confident Owen Almighty’s connections will make the right decision moving forward.
Note: I had Praetor on the brain.
Wishing you all the best tomorrow, Steve!
Flightline’s half by Curlin, Eagles Flight, was a winner yesterday in a 1 mile AOC. He was the class of the field, no contest. He sure looks like a Curlin – he stamps them. Wonder if they will try deeper waters now?
Hope no one minds posts about the older horses on the Dozen! Seems like Derby news coming from the weekend was light.
I previously stated that I give Sovereignty the edge over Journalism as I am of the opinion he is the classier of the two colts. Assuming that all things are equal. When two closely aligned horses, match strides the one with the class advantage/edge is likely to prevail.
There is more than a class edge which should ranks Sovereignty ahead of Journalism. Even if both are perceived to be equal in ever y respect. The tie breaker has to be their respective trainers.
Cody’s Wish and Elite Power were back-to-back winners of the BC Dirt Mile and BC Sprint. Both won in combination, 17 of their last 19 starts. No two stallion from the same stable has simultaneously entered the breeding with such resumes.
2019 –
In a quest for Country House to secure enough points to make the final 20 in the KD. Mott subjected the colt to 3 KD Preps in 56 days. That’s an average of one prep every 18.66 days. The colt finished 2nd, 3rd & 4th.
In those preps he was defeated by KD entrants War of Will, Spinoff, By My Standard, Omaha Beach and Improbable. All of whom had a less strenuous a path to the KD.
With only a MSW victory in the win column, and 3 KD prep in 56 days. Country House contested the KD 21 day later. Dismissed at 65/1, he found only an enhanced Maximum Security better. All the entrants that finished ahead of him in the KD preps failed to make the frame. Omaha Beach was a late scratch.
2024 –
It took Resilience 4 starts to break his maiden. In his stakes debut as a last out MSW winner he was no match for Sierra Leone in the Risen Star but finished a creditable 4th.He then won the Wood to secure a spot in the KD. His winning time of 1:50.28 was pedestrian to Fierceness’ 1:48+ in the FL Derby.
Sent off as the 12th betting choice (31/1) in the field of 20. He finished 6th by 7/4L. The likes of Dornoch and Fierceness were 10L & 14L behind. Both colts are more talented than Resilience. But he was better prepared on KD day.
Sovereignty appears to be Mott’s best KD prospect of his career. If he has achieved so much with lesser talented entrants. Imagine what kind of entrant Sovereignty will be on Derby day.
Nice post! Lots of good history, and Sovereignty truly looks strong.
Bill Mott is a Horseman, and that’s about the nicest thing I ever say about anyone.
Mott sure is a horseman, but not a chance his KD history is any good. I prefer others for sure in the training category for 3 year old colts on dirt.
Cigar,never on Derby trail,however he did ok with him and many. How about Art Sherman? Not buying it.
Art did more with less. Mott gets top dollar horses. He is patient with horses is fine. He’s better with late 3 year /and older horses
You said it he’s patient,unlike many.
Favorite Trick, at this point on the derby trail, was Mott’s career best derby prospect. Patrick Byrne trained FT to a juvenile championship, but Mott took over and brought him back in the Swale Stakes. Following his Swale win, FT went off as the 2-5 favorite in the Ark Derby. FT held the lead with a half furlong to go after dueling with 130-1 Battle Royale, but he gave it up to Victory Gallup and finished 3rd by a neck. Despite the loss, FT was the 4-1 second choice in the Ky Derby after Indian Charlie. He finished 8th.
If Sovereignty win his final prep, THEN he becomes Mott’s best derby prospect ever.
No disrespect to Sovereignty, who IMO is the clear #2 behind Journalism. Journalism handiness will serve him well in the KY Derby. He has won stalking the pace like he did in the Los Al Futurity or from off the pace like he did in his other wins. He has a definite tactical advantage over Sovereignty, who in a field of 20, may have to pass them all. I don’t see Sovereignty going by Journalism in the stretch when Journalism gets that motor running in high gear and is kicking for home. Running past River Thames IMO , is a big difference then reeling in Barnes. This could be your KY Derby EX. With IMO Journalism on top of all challengers. Can’t wait till he hooks horns with CB in the SA Derby.
Steve, hope your surgery goes smoothly tomorrow!
Yes, best of luck, Steve! ❤️
Mom said that they put bandage tape on her face and neck, and having that removed was the worst part of the surgery experience. After that, the lifting restrictions and drops were annoying, but you’re going to be so glad to SEE!
My husband had the surgery two years ago.
He did not have any bandages, did not need to wear sunglasses either.
He had the laser surgery with a lens implant. Actual procedure took about 15 minutes.
Was restricted from heavy lifting and driving until his follow-up, used the rest of his drops.
Ditto! I’m sure you’ll be happy when it’s over, no matter how you feel.
I think Steve H is going to have some interesting inside info in his KOTD section tomorrow about a horse that is currently 12-1 in the futures at William Hill
His gallop out was eye catching. He definitely needs longer and blinkers off.
I’ll follow my habit of taking the prep winners, not the non winners, to formulate a Kentucky Derby possible winner list. Owen Almighty belongs in the top ten, his finish was fast, even if the track was too. He’d been getting close. The trainer hasn’t had Derby entries before but had Shaman Ghost and Oscar Performance in years past, not sure why he doesn’t like Owen’s chances. I don’t think anybody can say for sure a modest early pace means the win was mediocre, I think that’s handicapper mythology. Especially as he was trying to wire it and did. Irad Ortiz, while the top jockey, hasn’t perfected setting the early pace, like Johnnie V. has; he goes too fast or too slow a lot. He probably could have gone a half second faster at the beginning and still won and got higher speed figures from Equibase, who scores some horses so low, and Beyer. I think it’s worth the gamble for Owen to get back on the Derby trail.
2016 – Destin 1st TDB – 1:42.82 (NTR) 6th KD
2017 -Tapwrit; 1st TDB – 1:42. 36 (NTR) 6th KD
2019 – Tacitus 1st TDB – 1:41.90 (NTR) 4th KD
Fast times in the TBD doesn’t reduce the major challenge which is the 10F KD.
Street sense set a NTR (1:43.11) in winning the 2007 TBD. He won the KG by less than 3L. He was a champion 2YO who won the BCJ by a record margin.
Those are actually pretty good results.
I had a giggle when reading the above. Counter Point, you do realize that Tapwrit won the 12f Belmont Stakes, both Destin and Tacitus missed on winning the Belmont Stakes by a whisker.
I think the three colts you mentioned didn’t have “the major challenge which is the 10f KD” more the ridiculous challenge of 20 horses being squashed in a tiny racetrack which is Churchill Downs.
The Kentucky Derby is a race where the luckiest colt/filly wins because they were less hampered in a race. Stamina is not the test, it’s the luck in competition.
Owen Almighty deja vu Classic Causeway?
Disco, Lynch had Classic Causeway in the 2022 Derby. CC’s past performances may be useful in understanding the thinking of his connections. CC was bred for classic distances, and he was more accomplished than OA by the time of the TB Derby, which he won gate to wire after a slow pace. In the Florida Derby, he finished 11th and last by 21 lengths at odds of 7-2. Inexplicably, he was sent to the Ky Derby and finished 11th again.
Classic Causeway was a turf horse, his trainer found out, he went to Ascot. Maybe the Flying Dutchmen need a new trainer, he can try the next 9 f. prep and then decide.
Steve:
Good luck tomorrow…
Even if he is pointing to Pat Day Mile, Owen Almighty is now 20-1 in futures. Interestingly enough, Hill Road’s futures odds went from 50-1 pre-race to 40-1 after. I am looking forward to his next race…maybe he gets a more favorable pace scenario…
Also, maybe some good news, or possibly just some betting, but Disco Time was 60-1 yesterday and is now 50-1.. I really hope to see him in a 100 points to the winner prep race; if in, he probably will need to finish first or second to make the Derby…
Cornucopian is 12-1(!)
I think that Hill Road is the only horse coming out of yesterday’s Tampa Bay Derby that I would be interested in going into the Derby. First race back, short on workouts, and compromised by pace. I might throw him into an exacta or two in next weekend’s Kentucky Derby Future Wager #5.
A decent 10-horse field for next Saturday’s Virginia Derby at New Kent. A half a million bucks will do that for you. It could be a good betting race. Deep down, I kind of hope that Getaway Car wins the race and goes into the Derby as one of the favorites. Because I KNOW he is one horse that has no shot in Louisville. Not in the Derby anyway. No offense.
Maybe I’m missing something with the Sunland Derby winner. BB manages him like a second or third stringer. Love him or hate him, BB is among the very best in the business at knowing where to place his horses. It’s too bad that the Zayats made him run Pharoah in the Travers. BB knew better. Ten years ago, I remember it like it was yesterday. That’s how it is with old people. I can remember things from ten and twenty years ago, but I don’t remember if I took my pill this morning.
TB derby is a grad 3 for a reason. None of those horses will do anything in KD.
Your assessment of the TBD requires review. Below are some cold facts to assist you.
Street Sense won the 2007 TBD and two race later won the KD
Super Saver finished 3rd in the 2010 TBD and two race later won the KD. he never won a KD prep as YO.
Tacitus won the 2019 TBD in a NTR and went on to finished 4th in the KD. He was promoted to 3rd with the DQ of Maximum Security
Musket Man won the 2009 TBD and finished 3rd in the KD.
The then ungraded Sunland Derby was the final prep for Mine That Bird one of the most scintillating KD winners in the last 50 year.
When was the last time either Wood or Gotham produced a KD winner?
My top 12 Derby prospects for Week 7, will be the same as Week 6.
In preferential order, they are as follows:
1) Journalism
2) Sovereignty
3) Citizen Bull
4) Barnes
5) Coal Battle
6) River Thames
7) Baeza
8) Bullard
9) Getaway Car
10) Captain Cook
11) John Hancock
12) Grande
I would love to add to add Owen Almighty, but it appears he’s off the Derby trail.
Baeza, Bullard and Grande will be in search of their first qualifying points next out.
Rodrequez defeated Baeza by 7L. He has been a grand disappointment in his subsequent starts. It is reasonable to use him as a measure for Baeza chances of gaining points in whichever prep he is directed?
I wouldn’t erase Owen Almighty just yet! I like my top 6 or 7, but beyond that, the horses who’ve performed the best seem interchangeable. I did swop out Chancer Mc Patrick and put in John Hancock. JH has an interesting pedigree, especially on the dam side. By Constitution, he’s a half brother to Ashland (G1) Stakes winner Speech and closely related to such talented horses as Rated R Superstar (a Grade 3 winner and super-stout horse) and Carson’s Run, a grade 1 winner on turf.
I’ve tweaked my Top 15 as follows:
1 Journalism (almost a tie with Sovereignty)
2 Sovereignty
3 Citizen Bull (I go back and forth between liking him better than Barnes, and vice versa)
4 Barnes
5 Burnham Square
6 Coal Battle
Below are pure speculation at this point:
7 Flood Zone (unless his connections opt for the UAE Derby)
8 Tappan Street
9 River Thames
10 Luxor Cafe
11 Madaket Road
12 John Hancock
13 Sand Devil
14 Caldera
15 Sandman
Good luck with your coming bets!
Nice list, Ms Blacktype
No love for Getaway Car, I take it.
Good luck to you as well.
Agree Ms. Blacktype. GC has almost no shot.
Nice win by Owen Almighty. Should the connections get Derby fever and decide to go that route, OA will be another pace setter hanging on for dear life turning for home. His configurations are ok for 9 panels (tops).
Lynch had the right idea about running him in the Pat Day Mile.
Such a good point, in the light of day, after the adrenaline. I agree with you, Zany (and Todd & Davids). The Pat Day Mile is usually a good race. If they thought Owen Almighty was good enough for a Classic, they could look at the Preakness after that.
Running in the Derby is not always worth it. It isn’t always a sire-making race, nor is it always a racehorse making race – even for the winners.
They know Owen A, and may think he’s too nice at other distances (or in more reasonable fields) to have his spirit broken in the Derby. Good enough for me if they want to take care of the horse!
Configurations? No one knows until he does it, he can try an upping 9 f. prep first, then go either way.
upcoming.
Agreed.
It is a good thing that Steve does not have to make big changes in his ranking the week of his cataract surgery… perhaps Getaway Car or John Hancock will take the spot of Patch Adams. Other than that there is no important movement w.r.t. to this week positions…
Get better soon, Nelson.
Going back to the Rebel Stakes, of the top nine finishers 8 came from behind.
The only horse who hung on was one who set the speed (Madaket Road) and he lost by 1-1/4L to Coal Battle.
Madaket Road first half mile was just over 5 lengths faster than the PAR for this class after all adjustments. So in his next race if there is no one else to push him that fast, he will be a major player for the win.
Todays race was just over PAR for the Gr III race. So Oven A will need to prove a bit more.
Just read below that OA might skip the road to the Derby.
Though I picked Owen Almighty to win the TB Derby today, i agree with Bryan Lynch’s plan to skip the KD, unless there is heavy attrition in the coming weeks. He got a soft pace today, and I would never consider horses like Chancer M serious KD contenders. OA has the potential to be a top 3yo at 7 or 8 furlongs and could pick up a lucrative 9 f race or two along the way. I don’t think he is quite good enough to handle the top 3 or 4 horses while dealing with quality speed at 10 f, and the KD could compromise his future.
Yes, Todd, I thought Owen Almighty had the Tampa Bay Derby in the bag. Owen Almighty has been so consistent on a track that is not easy for the inexperienced. Agree, John Hancock last out proved the distance limitations of Owen Almighty which is no disgrace. A good miler is worth their weight in the breeding shed.
You are right about the Tampa surface. I rarely play a horse there unless he has run over the track. Second time Tampa is often a winning angle.
I maintain a large chart on the horses that I consider Derby prospects, using various criterion depicted on that chart. In order to keep everything current, I use a pencil to make changes as necessary. When Brian Lynch announced that Owen Almighty would skip the Derby and point to the Pat Day Mile instead, I erased OA from my chart.
After Owen Almighty’s impressive win in the Tampa Bay Derby, I’m hopeful his connections will have a change of heart and reconsider the KD as an option moving forward, in which case I’ll be able to pencil OA back on my chart.
BTW, the criterion that I use on my chart, consists of 22 important aspects relating to each horse, such as breeding, speed, connections, running style, turn of foot, homebred (yes or no), etc., etc.
It’s probably a waste of time but it gives me something to do moving forward on the Derby trail.
I feel the same way about Owen Almighty and the Derby. Last year I picked four two-year-olds that I wanted to watch as three-year-olds–Mentee (not nominated), Ferocious (injured), Chancer McPatrick (unraced at three until today), and Owen Almighty (not planning to run in the Derby). Not an auspicious situation. But Owen Almighty has impressed me in all his races this year, and I really loved his performance today. He’s given his people reason to think Derby thoughts, and I hope they choose to compete. I remember many years ago hearing Leroy Jolley say on national television that Genuine Risk would not run in the Derby. Fortunately, Diana Firestone had other thoughts about the matter. I hope Owen Almighty has someone like her to speak for him.
Bill, you are not the only one on this blog who maintains a Derby database — I’m sure many of us do. I keep mine on my laptop, so I don’t have to worry about erasing information (except accidentally, which I’ve been known to do). I’ve got list of horses I consider to be in the running to make the Derby, a “just in case” list (which at this point is longer than the former), and a Top 12 or 15 or 20 list. Right now the latter is holding at 12.
I have the horse’s name, pedigree, birth month, stakes status, trainer (and sometimes owner), female family, auction price or a denotation of homebred, next race if known, race record, and Beyer figures for the last 2 races. Here’s how Sovereignty’s listing looks:
SOVEREIGNTY (2) c (Feb) Into Mischief—Crowned, by Bernardini. 9f. Bill Mott. NEXT: Florida Derby (1)
HB 4/2-1-0 BB: 98 LB: 98, 87, 89
At 3: Won Fountain of Youth S. (2)
At 2: Won Street Sense S. (3)
It’s a lot of information in a small package and easy to update each time the horse runs. In addition to my visual impression of each race, pedigree, graded stakes results, and the trending Beyer figures help me determine whether a horse appears on my Top 12/15/20 list. Soon I’ll be adding Derby points as well. I know a lot of people use the Brisnet and Equibase figures, but I began following the Beyer numbers back in the 90s and am used to them. Thanks to Steve, I have learned to respect ThoroGraph figures when they’re available.
Oops, I track figs for the last THREE races. And “BB” stands for best Beyer, not Bob Baffert. LOL.
Ms Blacktype
I’m sure there are many on this site that maintain a Derby Database, it would be impossible to keep up the pertinent information associated with any given horse on the Derby trail. Instead of setting up a database on my computer, I prefer the chart that I mentioned earlier. In addition, I have pedigree printouts on a vast array of this year’s crop, with printouts of the respective past performances attached to the pedigree printout. We all have our preferences regarding databases, I guess I’m just old school.
Bill: We all love our own systems. Who is to say one is better than the other? Not me. On the other hand, Steve seems to have the best “system” of all.
It helps that Steve has the Thoro-Graph numbers readily available, which were spot on in last year’s Derby.
Anna Rocks!
We got to see a HOY back for another season, and she looked every bit the part! Woohoo! It’s been a while!
Such a lovely filly. I hope she excels all year and retires sound.
Hope you are feeling better soon, Ms Blacktype. We are in another heat wave here for the next week or so.
Thanks, Davids. The flu going around here is a bit of a roller coaster. Sorry it’s so hot down under; maybe a nice dip in the ocean or nearby pool? We have lovely swimming holes here in the Catskills.
Thanks Ms Blacktype, it actually rained on me this morning while I was watering the garden. Singing and dancing in the rain.
I always imagine how beautiful it must be where you live looking out into forests atop those beautiful ranges.
I live in Fitzroy, the Fitzroy Swimming Pool is a famous icon. Many of Helen Garner’s books are set in the area. If you haven’t seen the movie or read the book “Monkey Grip” the famous swimming pool is a central character.
Owen Almighty had a big burst at the end, like last week’s prep winners. He finished under 6 seconds. He can also go fast from the break, if he can put opening and closing together, he’d be something. I hope they think about going. A strong front runner is an asset in the Derby.
Congratulations to Bill and kmi on Owen Almight’s win in the Tampa Bay Derby. Bill, you had him days ago!
Many thanks, Ms Blacktype
I’m very disappointed that Owen Almighty will skip the KD and point to the Pat Day Mile. Hopefully, after he went gate to wire, in 1:42.30, drawing off by 3 1/2 Lengths, his connections just might change their minds.
He was impressive, Bill, but given the way so many horses are chewed up simply running in the Derby, I’m with Brian Lynch. Owen Almighty could have a long and lucrative career racing in shorter graded stakes. Put him in the Derby and he might not run again this year. That said, he DOES look like the sturdy type. (He’s also inbred to Secretariat through his sire, Speightstown.)
Yes, great pick, y’all! Bill, I’m disappointed to see that, too. The efficiency of Owen Almighty’s stride makes me think he could excel on any surface or distance, and the lead change off the final turn was smooth.
On top of liking the horse himself, what an interesting pedigree! Speightstown x Tempers Rising looks like an inspired match to me: she gives his speed all kinds of stamina! I’ll be following Owen Almighty.
Thanks for the reply, Katy
When researching pedigrees, the first thing I look for is speed on the top and stamina on the bottom. Owen Almighty certainly appears to have that breeding in his genes.
Good luck, Katy.
Thanks Ms B …. great race by Owen.
I’m starting to think that Patch Adams is another “head-case”. Like Ferocious. No offense.
Patch Adams had that one good race….no mas..
Yes, Matthew, the Tampa Bay Derby complemented John Hancock and that’s about all there is to say. Bad luck with Filoso, he looked menacing for a few strides.
Filoso looked like he was eased….
Patch Adams had no excuse today …. he should have contested the slow pace but had nothing in his body/mind to do it… I hope he is OK.
Another mystery of horse racing like Hidden Scroll, Dennis’ Moment and Mystik Dan…
As I suspected the Tampa Bay Derby does not seem to have Derby relevance again…
Nelson, sometimes they are just precious 2 year olds. I was fairly happy with the return of Tap Into This, not sure what the jockey was doing but the future looks promising. Tap Into This should appreciate the Belmont distance.
Precocity is a good explanation for all those 2-year-olds of Stakes calibre early and then go off form in their 3-year-old campaigns… Including what happens with many BC Juvenile winners…
I have already labelled Sandman as my Belmont horse…
Yes Nelson, I also like Sandman for the Belmont Stakes but he’s also a top contender for the Kentucky Derby. The Churchill Downs straight just looks perfect to launch his onslaught.
Ten entries will race one mile and eighth for the $500,000 purse in the Virginia Derby next Saturday (50 point race).
I am partial of course because Virginia is my home state and I lived for many years less than 30 miles away in Colonial Williamsburg.
The race is one turn and has a long backstretch and long stretch.
Just delighted there is the much interest in the race. The seats are already sold out.
Thanks Lynda, I hope John Hancock runs here instead of the Louisiana Derby the connections were being interviewed at Tampa Bay today and Elliott Walden said they will decide between the Virginia Derby and the Louisiana Derby later in the week.
I see that John Hancock is likely for the LA Derby.
Would like to see these big ownerships support the Virginia Derby.
According to Elliott Walden, it all depends on whether they think John Hancock needs the extra time the Louisiana Derby offers. Wait and see I guess but you make a good point, Lynda.
Clearly, John Hancock and Getaway Car are the class of the Virginia Derby. I would think one of those two will win the race, the only question, which colt will hit the wire first?
I would give Getaway Car a slight edge, with Irad Ortiz Jr. in the saddle.
Rapture, with Flavien Prat could spring the upset.
Bill I am liking Virginia bred Omaha Omaha.
Hi Lynda
Omaha Omaha has displayed an impressive closing kick, which could be of benefit in a 9-furlong race. Aside from his debut start on turf, he would think having Kitten’s Joy as his broodmare sire, his connections might have tried him a few more times on turf, but it’s been all dirt races since.
Good luck with Omaha Omaha, Lynda.
Thanks Bill.
Congratulations to Skippylongstocking and the connections!
Thrilled!
Owen Almighty for the win in the Tampa Bay Derby.
Congrats kmi … you were very clear about the pace of the race and Owen Almighty’s edge at Tampa…
Thanks Nelson, appreciate it.
Today, Playa Del Mar, by Into Mischief, out of a Tiznow mare, is set to debut in the 6th race at Tampa Bay Downs, coming up at 2:55 Eastern time. He’s a Godolphin homebred, listed at 9/2 on the morning line. Will he be another Into Mischief colt that winds up on the Derby trail? Stay tuned.
Playa Del Mar’s current odds are 10-1.
Accelerize (Omaha Beach-Motion Emotion by Take Charge Indy) wins the 6th at Tampa very easy clocking a superb 1:21.20 for the 7 furlongs finishing in 12.09 seconds.
Accelerize looked still full of running after the race… another promising 3-year-old in a crop that looks to be the best in some time…
Playa del Mar closed to finish 3rd after a troublesome trip…
Two more prospects to register in our virtual stables…
Thanks, Nelson. That was a really impressive performance. He broke from the 12 hole and quickly made his way to the rail. Leading all the way he accelerated away from the field in the stretch. It’s a little late for the Derby, but I expect he’ll run in a stakes next.
Thanks for the reply Ms Blacktype … I hope you are getting better from the flu… I am also recovering from a cold I got after my travel to the Philippines.
As I’ve been iterating, Pletcher’s best 3-year-olds are very late to the party but he can still get some qualifying points for a couple of them…
At any rate, I see this crop as one of the best in the last decade of Derby trails…
Those dad-gum planes! You get well, too.
The Tampa Bay Derby feels like a dull intermission in the Derby trail after the thrilling editions of the San Felipe, the Fountain of Youth and the Gotham last week.
The pre-race headline is the 3-year-old debut of Champagne victor Chancer McPatrick … this is a very rare occurrence; I do not recall any other Champagne winner running in the Tampa Derby before (pending a deeper search into their historical charts).
Perhaps Chad Brown was looking of an easier race for the debut of the son of McKinzie whose (Grade 1) credentials make him a deserving 8/5 ML favorite.
However, it won’t be that easy of a task as Patch Adams will be most likely rebounding from his disappointing performance as the 5/8 favourite in the Southwest Stakes on January 25.
Brad Cox has been in this situation before… You may very well remember Mandaloun bouncing back from 8th as the odds-on favorite in the Louisiana Derby to win the 2021 Kentucky Derby. The same year Brad Cox had Caddo River failing as a the first choice in the Rebel and then run second in the Arkansas Derby.
In 2022 Ciberknife wins an Allowance and the Arkansas Derby following a discouraging 6th place 10 lengths behind longshot Call Me Midnight in the Lecomte.
So, you may expect a similar jump in form from one race to the next by the super fast Patch Adams.
When Patch Adams crushed a maiden field running 7 furlongs in 1:20 and change I just thought “typical Into Mischief” remembering the sprinting exploits of Life is Good, Gamine and Covfefe … Patch Adams looked even faster in promise since he did it as a 2-year-old…
But the name that popped out of the page was Distorted Humor. The son of Forty NIner came to prominence as a sire after the feats of Funny Cide, Drosselmeyer, Flower Alley, Any Given Saturday, Regal Ransom, and Consolidator among his 170 stakes winners.
But I would say that Distorted Humor has been a greater broodmare sire so far. He was leading broodmare sire, with his daughters producing 159 black-type winners so far, including 9 champions led by the great Arrogate. This year the most prominent maternal grandsons of Distorted Humor in the Derby grind are champion Citizen Bull, Patch Adams, Tappan Street, Sandman, Ashely’s Archer, Incentive Pay, Natural Rise (Cattleya winner in Japan), and the very promising Cornucopian is also a maternal grandson of Distorted Humor.
I expect Patch Adams to show the same blast he displayed at Churchill downs … whether he will be as impressive as Journalism or Sovereignty remains to be seen.
My kid is wearing her Thorpedo Anna tee, and we are eager to see the Champion this year.
I would love to see Anna as dominant this year as she was last, believe me. I’m holding out for a hero! (The kid wanted me to include that. We love Shrek.) But I would love it if someone could explain how weight assignments for the Azeri Stakes were made. TA is to carry 119, and three other (less accomplished) runners have 121, 121, and 124. Is it because this is TA’s first start in 2025? Many aspects of handicapping make very little sense to me.
As always, I hope all the runners and riders come home safely, and that those of you who are wagering are happily successful!
Best of luck to Anna!
Yes, safe races for all!
All of the trainers and gate workers are to be commended for the horsemanship that went into keeping all those ponies and jockeys safe when “Hilary” got herself into trouble. Today, we saw the value of gate schooling! Glad they were all OK.
Thorpedo Anna gave the kiddo quite a thrill!
A few questions should be answered in today’s Tampa Bay Derby. Will Patch Adams break through and start fulfilling his early potential? Will Chancer McPatrick prove he can win a graded stakes at two turns? Or will Owen Almighty steal the race on the front end? Hill Road and Filoso are intriguing wild cards here. Should be a good one.
Also of note: Race 8 at Oaklawn, a MSW, offers up promising 3YOs Tap Into This and Oy Gevald (most recently third to Cormupian). My day on the couch recovering from the virus that’s been going around is set!
Feel better, Ms Blacktype!
I was not unhappy to see February finally go, after a my first experience with trigeminal neuralgia, followed by laryngitis.
We are finally planting potatoes today, and I’m looking forward to some racing this afternoon.
Thanks Katy and Lynda. Planting anything up here any time soon seems a bit premature. Haven’t even seen crocus yet. The unwanted crab grass is getting started on the patio, but that’s about it.
Feel better soon and take care of yourself. It is a nasty bug!
Hi Ms Blacktype
The maiden race that you referenced at Oaklawn Park, has an interesting longshot set to debut for Steve Asmussen. Titanium Man, by Curlin, out of a Bernardini mare is listed at 20-1 on the morning line, with Erik Asmussen in the saddle. Curlin needs no introduction, and his broodmare sire, Bernardini has proven to be one of the best out there with likes of Sovereignty, Chancer McPatrick and Valentinian showing Bernardini as their broodmare sire. Titanium Man is a Hill ‘n’ Dale homebred that should relish the 8.5-furlong distance, IMO. A $10.00 WPS wager on this Curlin colt might prove to be profitable.
Should be a good race!
Ms Blacktype, it’s a pity Tap Into This had Keith Asmussen as his pilot today. Whenever, I I’ve seen the lad ride he seems totally indecisive which transfers into the horse’s confidence ending up confusing or frustrating the horse.
I understand what the lad was trying to do today and it almost worked but he would have been better biding his time and taken Tap Into This out with one solid run.
Nonetheless, Tap Into This’ return shows promise to come with a more experienced jockey aboard, hopefully. The pedigree is wonderful.
Whoever is interested, today in Australia at Flemington and Randwick there are a glut of Group races on offer.
In Melbourne, at Flemington, we have the 3.6 million Group 1 All Star Mile + the prestigious 1.5 million Group 1 Newmarket Handicap along with two Group 2 and three Group 3 races. We’ve had no rain here for over 2 weeks so the track will be lightning fast.
At ‘Soggy Sydney,’ Randwick has an equally impressive card with the Group 1 Randwick Guineas worth 1 million + the 600,000 Group 1 Canterbury Stakes along with three Group 2 races and two Group 3 races. It’s forever raining in Sydney so expect a slog.
There are three important prep races today for the 5 million Golden Slipper Stakes run on March 22 at Rosehill. At Randwick, the Todman Stakes and Reisling Stakes while at Flemington we have the VRC Sires Produce Stakes all three are Group 2 races.
Just to shock the US fans and trainers, in Australia they even have major prep races for the Golden Slipper next weekend, only a week out from the major event. Lol. Impossible but true!!
Davids, outstanding stuff. I love it, as major horseplayer should have, but the time difference handicaps, pardon the pun, us inte states here. My guess is that the major races start about the time people on East Coast being to wind downon their night and the West Coast just beginning.
That said, I read that this “Racing Spectacular” is going to have the ‘Best Dressed’ and ‘Best Suited’ contest.
Keep us informed….and let us know if you won either contests.
John, it’s been a wonderful day of racing with quite a few upsets but the main race the Newmarket Handicap is just about to come – historic race. In Melbourne, we’re in another heat wave so watching the racing at home has been the go. You do miss the exhilaration of the crowd roaring though.
They’re flying in the Newmarket, Jolliestar simply outclasses them, another superstar filly/mare in Australia. The owners are thinking about Royal Ascot…
Hi Davids, saw the race results late night.
2 of the Godolphin winners go back to Street Cry. His influence continues.
And a Wootten Bassett won.
Thank you for the heads up on these races.
Hope the cyclone is not having a serious impact and that everyone is safe.
Hi Lynda, there is a Coolmore Wootton Bassett colt, Wodeton, who has lost two major Golden Slipper Stakes’ preps the Silver Slipper Stakes and the Todman Stakes, yesterday, through inexperience who may or may not get into the Golden Slipper Stakes in a fortnight time depending on points. There are more preps this Saturday so who knows until then?
Anyway, should Wodeton get into the Golden Slipper it might be a third time lucky. He’s a gorgeous colt, Coolmore paid A$1.6 million for him. You can catch the Todman Stakes on YouTube search under “Tentyris wins the Todman Stakes.
Hi Davids, guess I should have included the horse’s name, Royal Patronage. I think he is 6?
All good Lynda, I knew who you meant. Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott train him. Very classy individual who won the influential Royal Lodge Stakes at a mile for 2 year olds in Newmarket.
If Poster is directed to the Jeff Ruby, it will represent the 3rd different surface on which he will contest a race and 5th different venue.
I consider the Triple Crown series the ultimate test for 3YOs. It appears Poster is being subjected to his ultimate test ahead of the real one. If he accumulates sufficient points to make the KD final 20. Churchill Downs will be the 6th racing venue for his 6 career races.
As a May 20th foal, Poster is at a physical maturity disadvantage. His sire was a sprinter and that makes his pedigree a bit suspect for 10F. Why add potential confusion to the colt’s list of challenges/
HRN has probable/possibles for the Wood Memorial that includes Poster. The list features what I consider to be slow prospects that Poster should be able handily defeat. A reproduction of his Remsen’s winning time of 1:50.37 will be more than sufficient for awin.
Based on his ranking overview, it appears he is being pointed to the Jeff Ruby. The Jeff Ruby will represent the 3rd different surface on which he will contest a race and 5th different racing venue.
I consider the TC Series the ultimate test for 3YOs. It appears Poste is being subject to a different ultimate test, before the real intimate test begins. Why subject the colt to this needless verity of surfaces and racing venues? Is there a quantifiable benefit? If he accumulates sufficient points to make the KD cut. CD will be the 6th venue at which he will making a start.
As a May 20th foal Poster is at a physical maturity disadvantage. His sprinting sire makes his pedigree a bit suspect for 10F. Why add confusion to his list of challenges?
Likely starters for the Arkansas Derby, with 100 Derby points on the line, (3-29).
Coal Battle, probable
Sandman, probable
John Hancock, possible
Barnes, possible
Disco Time, possible
Speed King, possible
Bullard, possible
Cornucopian, possible (my pick, if he enters)
Bill, both Coal Battle (49.4 @ Oaklawn) and Cornucopian (49.8 @ SA) had works on Wednesday.
Interesting twist…another Baffert colt, Tiz Secure, is entered in Sunday’s Pasadena Stakes….one mile but on the turf. Yep, on the turf.
Yes, I noticed those latest works by Cornucopian and Coal Battle. More than likely Coal Battle will be the morning line favorite, if he enters.
John Hancock certainly looked impressive in the Sam F. Davis, going 8.5 furlongs in 1:42.27. I was somewhat surprised Cox skipped the Tampa Bay Derby and appears to have JH pointed to the Arkansas Derby.
Any thoughts on Cornucopian would be appreciated.
Thanks, John.
Bill please don’t list any more prospective fields. I am listing all of them in KOTD. It has taken days of texting and research to put it together. Thanks
No problem, Steve, I’ll heed your request.
Bill, Disco Time hasn’t had a workout since he won the G3 Lecomte Jan. 18th. Seems something is amiss with him.
D.C. is fine.
The brisnet form says that Patch Adams “bobbled” at the start of the Southwest. It looked more like a stumble to me. Whatever, he made a big move to get back into contention before flattening in the stretch. That was his first try around 2-turns. Four works since raced. The last two at 5-furlongs. Patch Adams is just 2-1 on the morning line in the 7-horse field. Not much money to make there. Maybe the crowd goes crazy with Chancer McPatrick, Flavien Prat up.
Chad on Chancer: “He’s about 80 percent ready, that’s good enough to get him started. We’ll run him here and evaluate what we’re going to do after that” (DRF, March 6). I think that Chad is telling you to bet on Patch with confidence! On the other hand, there’s Hill Road. 💰
Changing the subject, Smarty Jones is being considered for the Hall of Fame this year. A well made (30 minute) documentary is on line named “Ride of A Lifetime”: The Smarty Jones Story is available on line. It’s a wonderful and informative documentary including members of Team Smarty: His trainer, vet, exercise rider, groom, owner, and jockey are included.
The reason I brought up Smarty Jones is because of Coal Battle. Coal Battle is a tough smaller horse, but he’s battle tested.
The Smarty Jones documentary is found on Ride of a Lifetime–The Smarty Jones Story. It will come come up if you goggle it.
PS, there are quite a few horses descended from Secretariat on the Derby Trail this year.
Hi Steve and fellow readers,
I am hoping Mount Kilimanjaro runs a huge race in the Patton Stakes at Dundalk today then goes to Dubai for the UAE Derby where he will hopefully secure enough points for a Kentucky Derby run.
Given that Ryan Moore is ending his winter hiatus to ride the Siyouni colt (out of a US stakes-placed Galileo mare), I expect Aidan O’Brien has him on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.
The competition seems light with two fillies, a maiden, and a first-time starter comprising the remainder of the five-horse field. That’s why more than a simple victory is needed.
I hope all of you are enjoying your late winter weather as Steve guides us to spring and the First Saturday in May.
greg (in Winnipeg)
Greg, Mount Kilimanjaro is also nominated for the English 2,000 Guineas on May 3, 2025. Considering, Aidan O’Brien has not done well with his tactics of not running his colts prior to the 2,000 Guineas perhaps he is trying a new tack this year.
Mount Kilimanjaro is nominated for the Kentucky Derby so we may be lucky but I’m happier if he runs for the 2,000 Guineas.
Mount Kilimanjaro, came in third at Dundalk. Perhaps he is best suited racing on French turf.
The Kentucky Derby has a fascinating history. Far too often the history of the race is ignored is our respective quest to identity the winner of the great race.
I keep tabs on historic tends that many will find meaningless. I also theorized a lot. One of my many theories is. Godolphin muti decade pursuit of KD glory will not be achieved with a fancied horse. As a result, I would wager Poster over Sovereignty in the KD Future Pool. But I could very well be on a fool’s errand with such a wager. But it’s an errand I am prepared to embark on.
Of all the KD prep YTD 2025, The Tampa Bay Derby is the one that will be the most reeling for me. Why?
Each year I compile a spreadsheet of the pedigree profile of the top prospects. As additional prospect emerge the spreadsheet is updated. Whilst compiling my initial list I highlighted 5 horses for special attention for various reasons. See below:
Hot Property – BC
Romanesque -BB
Calling Card – DS/MM
Hill Road -CB
Tiztastic -SA
The only one on my shortlist that hasn’t made a start in 2025 is Hill Road. The other 4 have proven to be modest. The more I review Hill Road the more a likely KD winner’s story emerges. But only a positive performance in the TBD will enhance the likelihood this of this story.
There is a lot of KD history that suggests Hill Rod might just have a place in the race’s history. See below:
BCJ –
Alysheba 3rd – KD winner
Spend A Buck 3rd – KD winner
Hill Road – 3rd- KD result Pending
Pedigree – Mr. Prospector over Mr. Propester
Mine that Bird – 2009 KD winner 50/1
Rich Strike – 2022 – KD winner 82/1
Hill Road – 2025 – KD result pending
Extremely close KD defeat –
1996 – Cavonnier defeated by a nose -BB
2024 – Sierra Leone defeated by a nose -CB
Response to narrow KD Loss
1997 – Silver Charm – KD winner -BB
2025 – Hill Road – KD results pending – CB
The blueprint is in place. Hill Road just needs to step up an make it happen.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Hill Road needs a race. I’m looking at brisnett PPs and I only see 5 works for Hill Road. Worse yet, two 3-furlong works followed by three of Chad Brown’s trademark 4-furlong works. And he hasn’t raced since Breeders Cup Friday on November 1st. Maybe Class alone can carry the day.
Chad Brown does hit at 25% with first time blinkers.
Quality Road with some Lemon Drop Kid says that he may want longer.
Rest in peace, beautiful Roses in May. One of my favorites, and another desert hero.
Happy retirement, Mr Denman and Master of the Seas!
Overall, bittersweet news this morning.
Trevor Denman’s call of the 2009 Breeders’ Cup Classic (Zenyatta’s win) still gives me chills.
Trevor Denman is my all-time favorite race caller. I will miss him, but I wish him a very happy retirement. I think Larry Collmus, another favorite of mine, is an excellent successor to Mr. Denman, and I wish him all the best in his new position.
Great analysis once again Steve! With you on six of your top seven. I’d move Flood Zone up to sixth, he should be undefeated. He looked like he got a little tired in his debut, and still might have won that race if he hadn’t been bothered/spooked a tiny bit late. What really jumped out at me on him though was the presence of high-class Deputy Minister (among other elites) in his pedigree. Not sure he’s ready for the top choices yet, but he certainly has some heart and wants to win. He needs to learn how to become a professional racehorse now — relax, wait, go — rather than go, go, go. Looks like he could have some upside too. Citizen Bull is still my top choice at this point. Agree with you about Sovereignty and Journalism, and kudos to Bridlewood trainer Joan Murphy for not only doing a great preparation job, but for her deep understanding of the mental and physical state of her horses early, knowing exactly what direction each needed to go, and what they needed to develop into good horses. Rare skill these days among trainers. Thanks for those notes! Not sure either of those two are ready for Citizen Bull level talent yet, but they may be on the first Saturday in May. Love Coal Battle, and have bet him in his last four races. He too, may not be at the level of Citizen Bull yet, and if he doesn’t go in the Arkansas Derby, that will cost him from a fitness perspective in the Derby. His trainer has done a stellar job with him — he certainly knows where the wire is — but he’ll need a Whittingham conditioning job to be as fit as the other top choices if he doesn’t run in the Arkansas Derby. Not sure Barnes is good enough, but great job on the shoe notes. The real sleeper may be Captain Cook. I don’t think you’re overhyping him at all. His races were good, but it was when I saw a photo of him in full flight that I began to think, ‘Hey, this horse looks like he has some substance to him.” Not quite sure he has enough pedigree, but… Looking forward to next week’s update! Thanks!
George,
If your post was broken out into several paragraphs for the different point contained therein, reading it would be much easier.
Good “point” Counter Point 🙂 I was going to do that but there was no way to edit it. Will edit on the fly next time.
Per Brian Lynch, Owen Almighty is off the Derby trail and will instead be pointed to the Pat Day Mile, on the Kentucky Derby undercard. Lynch considers the TB Derby as a prep race for the Pat Day. Could it be that Owen Almighty’s sire, Speightstown, was a sprinter and his dam side lacked sufficient stamina influence, that justified Lynch’s decision to avoid the 10-furlong Derby distance? I wonder how the ownership team feels about this decision.
Owen Almighty could meet Barnes in that Pat Day Mile.
Not likely. By all indications, Barnes will ship to Oaklawn Park, for the Arkansas Derby, on March 29th.
Agreed!
Barnes is pointed to The Derby….
The TBD entrant that will be carrying all my cash is Hill Road. Race entrants @4/1 rarely attract my attentions, as I am a longshot hunter. But I have this sneaky feeling that this entrant will be longer than its ML at post time.
I am surprised this colt was not highlighted in the KONT section, given he finished ahead of the ranked Chancer MacPatrick in the BCJ. This colt BCJ performance and the #3 ranking of BCJ winner Citizen Bull, makes him a major player and potential KD winner should there be positive progression since the BCJ.
This $350,000 Quality Road colt displayed class from his very first start. He won a maiden race on turf over a mile by 5L, in Ireland toting 131lbs. He was thrown in the deep end when directed to the Vinent O’brien G1 over 7F for his 2nd start. he finished 7 of 8 and off to Del Mar for the BCJ.
The 2024 BCJ feature the horrendous break for race favorite East Anue. But there was something far more noteworthy. All the chasers of race leader Citizen Bull were either running on the spot or fading from their cruising positions. Hill Road was the only entrant that displayed any forward progression. He closed from 10L last to finish 3rd by 4 3/4L.
Consider the following challenges for this colt- different time zone, first start on dirt, track configuration, faster pace, crow noise. All the aforementioned could have contributed to a foreign based entrant, running in last place remining there. But this colt class tripped in, and he motored from the back of the field to be travelling best at the finish line.
From a pedigree perspective Hill Road is bred along the same cross a BC Dirt Mill and Pegasus winner City of Lights. he is out of Paris Motion. Exotic Motion the dam of Hill Road is a daughter of Parris Motion by Lemon Drop Kid.
Belmont winner Lemon Drop Kid is somewhat of an unsung broodmare sire. The following G1 winners are out of Lemon Drop Kid mares -Tamarkuz, Finest City, Yellow Agate, Forever Unbridled, Divisidero, Unbridled Forever, Elusive Kate. Five of the cited 7 G1 winners were sired by Mr. Prospector line stallion.
Hill Road won on debut with 131lbs. He is handicapped to win the TDB with an import of 120lbs. Further, his pedigree and past performance suggest is the one.
CP:
I am hoping for higher than ml odds on Hill Road. BCJ effort plus 3 year old development makes him a good wager imo…
CP, you make a strong case for Hill Road, his dam side reflects a ton of class and stamina influence. I used him on top, along with four others in the first two slots of a $1.00 superfecta p/w wager. That is: 3,4,5,6,7/ 3,4,5,6,7/ 1,2/ 1,2. In addition, I flipped that over,
keyed Owen Almighty and Chancer McPatrick in the first two slots, with ALL/All underneath in the 3rd and 4th slots. That is: 1,2/ 1,2/ ALL/ ALL.
Good luck with Hill Road.
Welcome to the Hill Road Club, CP.
The breeding of a Lemon Drop Kid mare to Quality Road has been done at least a dozen times without a truly exceptional horse being produced. I think I will watch and see how this one does. Good luck!
3 probables for Virginia Derby March 15 at Colonial Downs:
Omaha Omaha – Gorham
American Promise – Lukas
Gaming – Baffert
Field will be announced Saturday
Purse – 500,000
Points – 50-25-15-10-5
Track owned by CHD
I am starting to agree with some who are thinking too many prep races and too many roads to the Derby.
I agree. Races which used to be events in their own rights are now small field auditions. And as foal crops rapidly shrink, the problem gets worse. On another note, I am glad Ian Wilkes is pointing Burnham Square to the Blue Grass. As a Carl Nafzger disciple, Wilkes is familiar with the Blue Grass as a final prep, though it is now much further out from the KD. I still think Burnham Square has the potential to challenge the big two.
Todd I have not yet given up on Burnham Square.
I like Burnham Square, too, and this schedule makes sense to me. I hope to follow his career for quite a while. Stay healthy, Burnham Square!
I’d axe all the points from the two year old races including the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile race. The Classics are for the top 3 year olds to clash in.
David’s I think the 2yo races should have MORE points, Kentucky Derbys are usually won by horses that have “bottom”, I still look for two year old talent, and at two turns—not necessarily WINS,I want a horse that at least ran against good horses, age two….of course it’s a race for three year olds—look at recent trends—horses that achieve success having not even started at age two…..are nowhere to be seen, after their three year old success, they get injured—and disappear…
Matthew, you have to go all the way back to Nyquist (2015-16) to find a derby winner that won a points stakes as a two-year-old, or even your stated qualifiers.
The one two in the 2024 Breeders Cup Classic—who both defeated Forever Young—had 2yo “bottom”….and they’re still racing…
My point being: Racing has been shooting itself in the foot, with the lightly raced three year olds RUSHING for points, so they can rush into a 20-horse ten furlong grueling race! My opinion is horses should have bottom, and they should be rewarded for getting bottom—because in the long run it is best, for the horse—and thus best for Horse Racing..
I was replying to your point about the kentucky Derby.
Although I appreciate you sentiment about ‘bottom,’ Matthew, if you gave the two year old races more points you would see even fewer three year olds running in preps because they’ve already made it to the big dance.
Conversely, if all the 3 year olds have blank slates starting in January then the race is on to get those desired points – excitement + – not like now, where you’ll be lucky to see them twice because they’ve already got 20 or so points asa 2 year old.
I’m not saying to make it big points, but races like The Remsen and Los Al Futurity (formerly Hollywood Futurity) get a pittance, for points—these races are horse builders! Tony says nobody since Nyquist has done it—well give those races some points! At least more than TEN POINTS! We are developing one year wonders—I still look for two year old bottom! There are a couple of nice ones, Sovereignty and Journalism, they had two year old two turn success—then a break—now watch out!
Matthew, I think we are talking cross purposes here. I want 2 year olds getting plenty of experience but, so they race more times as three year olds, they should have to get all their points as 3 year olds.
The prize money is enough for owners to race 2 year olds in the Remsen, Los Al Futurity, BC Juvenile etc.
Hi Lynda
Just as a heads up, Steve Haskin posted a message to me today which reads as follows, “please don’t list any more prospective fields”. I replied that I would heed his request.
I would think he will send a similar message to you having listed the prospective field in the Virginia Derby. You have been forewarned. 🙂
Almost co-favorites at William Hill now:
1. Coal Battle +750
2. Journalism +800
3. Sovereignty +1100
Oops:
1. Citizen Bull!!!
Coal Battle is 16-1
I have often referred to the Kentucky Derby as an ultimate equalizer. It is a race in which exceptionally brilliant entrants are often made to look modest, whilst modest entrants are often made to look exceptionally brilliant, if only on the 1st Saturday in May.
There is an equalizer and there is a separator. I suspected that many analysts would be in dilemma regarding the ranking of Journalism and Sovereignty after their FOY and San Felip performance. I didn’t find myself in any such dilemma. Why?
The separator for me was class. I consider Sovereignty the classier of the two colts. How did I determine Sovereignty has the class edge? Their respective maiden breaker.
Journalism broke his maiden in a MSW by 2 1/2L as the 3rd choice ($4.90) and under serious urging. Notable defeated opponents – Rank and Mellencamp 1st & 2nd choice in the wagering. Subject to correction, one is still eligible for NW2 and the other still a maiden.
Sovereignty broke his maiden in the G3 Street Sense as the overwhelming favorite ($1.43) by 5L under a hand ride. Notable defeated opponents – Sandman (bean favorite in the Rebel; 2nd Southwest) Tiztastic (3rd Kentucky Jockey Club; 3rd Southwest)
The speed /performance figures assigned to the two colts on Saturday didn’t include two pertinent factors. There has to be doubts whether these factors could have been included in the computation of assigned numbers. Therefore, it was the burden of analysts to make an objective assessment of their worth for the ranking process.
The FOY is marginally longer than the San Felipe as result of the newly implemented run up to the first turn. Sovereignty had the longer layoff, and his preparation was spotty with Equibase reflecting an irregular work pattern. This brought into question his level of fitness ahead of the FOY.
The first 3 panels of the FOY were faster than the San Felipe which could have resulted in the slower final time. Chasing fast fractions from the back of the field, off long layoff and with suspect fitness, creates a major challenge at avenue with an extremely short stretch.
Sovereignty showed what a class act he is whilst breaking his maiden handily in a graded stake. The challenged he faced at in the FOY was neutralized by share class.
Class is like cream, it invariably rises to the top. Sovereignty has the class edge on Journalism and that should be the factor that separate the two colts, if only just.
Good day, Counter Point.
I agree with Steve Haskin that Sovereignty and Journalism are so evenly matched, it’s very difficult to objectively state which is the better of the two. IMO, the only way to determine which is the best prospect on the Derby trail is how they perform in a 9-furlong prep race down the road. More than likely, Sovereignty will contest the Florida Derby, and Journalism will be matched up against Citizen Bull in the Santa Anita Derby.
As much as I admire the Into Mischief colts on the Derby trail, Sovereignty being one, I would give a slight edge to Journalism as the better of the two. Just my opinion.
Regardless of how you split the “atom”….it’s too soon for determining who’s the more explosive fragment for the KD.
I’m looking forward to their 9 furlong races.
Longer run-up will result in faster early splits, because when the timer starts—they have had longer to gather their stride..watch the turf races, out of the Santa Anite turf chute-less run up, sliwer fractions… —
The morning line odds have been released on the Tampa Bay Derby.
1) Owen Almighty, 5-1
2) Chancer McPatrick, 8/5
3) Hill Road, 4-1
4) Brodeur, 15-1
5) Filoso, 15-1
6) Naughty Rascal, 20-1
7) Patch Adams, 2-1
Key Owen Almighty and Chancer McPatrick on top, with ALL underneath in a $1.00 superfecta p/w wager. That is: 1,2/ 1,2/ ALL/ ALL.
Flip that over, in another $1.00 super p/w wager, using ALL/ ALL/ 1,2/ 1,2
On a side note, there’s an interesting $53K Mdn race for 3yr. old colts on the Tampa Bay Derby undercard, (race #6). A full field of 12 are entered, including Playa Del Mar, by Into Mischief, out of a Tiznow mare. He’s been working steadily for William Mott and is listed at 9/2 on the morning line.
I find it amazing that Into Mischief has sired such a vast array of talented colts on this year’s Derby trail, which are listed as follows:
Citizen Bull, Sovereignty, Barnes, Cornucopian, Tappan Street, Valentinian, Hypnus, Praetor and Patch Adams.
Safe trips to all.
Keep an eye on Praetor, by Into Mischief, out of a Curlin mare, entered in a $96K, AOC race at GP, on Sunday, March 9th, race #9. He hasn’t race since breaking his maiden back in September but has been working steadily for Chad Brown leading up to referenced race.
edit, “he hasn’t raced”
Praetor is a very good horse and has proven he has class.
..
Agreed.
Are you stealing my horse, Dawson? Praetor showed a sharp turn of foot when he opened up in a blink of an eye in upper stretch. Then, the train took aim and ran out of ground, barely. Think he will prove best of the Brown contingent. Praetor appeared for the first time in the KDFWs in pool 4. While the odds are great that he will not win the KD, you should see the odds he went off in that pool. Ninety nine to one got me to dive in for the first time in 22 years. He wound up going off at the insane price of 179/ 1. Interested in a tiny piece, Bill? Maybe we can make it happen.
Praetor will get his one shot after he defeats a weak field on Sunday, He’s a couple of weeks behind in his training, we will not see his best on March 9.
My top three for the Derby and beyond:
1) Sovereignty — 2) Journalism — 3) Praetor
Hi, Andre
Yes, most definitely, I would love to have a piece of your wager on Praetor.
Just let me know where to send the money. 🙂
In the past few years, all my Derby Futures wagers have flopped.
In 2024, I had futures on Resilience and Catching Freedom (finished 4th & 6th)
In 2023, I had futures on Hit Show, finished 5th (won a few graded races since). The Super High Five paid $194K.
In 2022, I had futures on Simplification, finished 4th (superfecta paid, $321K)
In 2021, I had futures on Rock Your World, (finished 17th, bet two horses)
Needless to say, I’ve been reluctant to place additional Futures wagers.
However, I just might take a shot at two or three in Derby Futures Pool #5, set to open on March 14th.
Best of luck with your bet on Praetor, at 171-1
BTW, in 2017, I boxed the only colts whose sire line that led directly to Mr. Prospector, Lookin at Lee, finished 2nd at 33-1, Battle of Midway, finished 3rd at 40-1, Classic Empire, finished 4th at 7-1 and Irish War Cry, finished 10th (after making a left turn leaving the gate). All I had to do was to key Steve Haskin’s top pick, Always Dreaming on top, with the afore mentioned colts underneath in a $1.00 superfecta p/w, which returned $76K.
Yeah, I know Shoulda, Coulda, Woulda. 🙂
Yes, 171 /1 , good luck with your bets. Odds are greatly stacked against Praetor winning the KD but those are crazy odds on a colt that I like. Would need a top two finish in either The Wood or The Blue Grass and if he runs well Sunday, it’s doable,
I just re-watched the San Felipe, just for some happiness! From the 2/8 pole on—top two really drew out—Barnes wasn’t quitting—very much like Sham–the other guy just was better! But….Bob controlled the pace, and it was soft—Journalism came and got him anyway—this is a real nice colt—a beautiful bay—still growing, my eyesight is faltering but in early morning I see better, and am counting my blessings, one being te-watching this beautiful colt! Memories of the Los Al Futurity, seeing him up close and telling Mr Wellman to check his tattoo, I think he might be a three year old! Bob was there, saddling three….having won all but one of those Los Al Futurities…..well it’s all but two, now!
(3/8 pole)..
I have also re-watched multiple times since the race: always enjoyable!
Just seven for the Tampa Bay Derby. Is it just me or is there a trend of short fields for the Derby points races this year? Just 6 for last week’s Fountain of Youth and only 5 for the Derby prep at Santa Anita.
The last 2 years, the Tampa Bay Derby drew 11 & 12 runners. Both editions won by the favorites. Although wasn’t it last year that the tote blew up at Tampa making it impossible to bet on the race?
There will surely be some trainers hurting for points come Derby time. They can look back at all the chances they missed while crying in their beer. Make the fans happy. Run your horses.
There are too many points races, while trainers give their derby prospects fewer starts.
Tony D, there are others who agree with you, including me.
STATESMAN has a beautiful stride and action. Hope he gets a shot in the Wood.
Yes, Scott, and arguably the best pedigree.
Agree. Shug notorious for taking too long to test the waters. I think this guy can make some noise if given the opportunity.
I love the idea of having 2 at the top of the rankings and letting it all sort itself out as the upcoming preps are run!!
The G2 Fountain of Youth had 2 high weights of 123 lbs. Sovereignty and Burnham Square. Both had won G3 routing races of 1¹⁶. Also the presence of River Thames stretching his speed from 1 mile to 2 turns, along with an array of sprinters.
Sovereignty came in off a 4 month layoff to snatch victory away from a determined River Thames by a neck in a exciting finish.
I’m sure we haven’t seen the best of Sovereignty, as we got a glimpse of Journalism displaying his power. I find it remarkable that Sovereignty has closed on a speed favoring track. After breaking his maiden in the G3 Street Sense, he has taken the G2 FOY, and finalizes his KD prep in the G1 Florida Derby as he ascends the ladder.
Citizen Bull displayed a relatively relaxed comeback in the G3 RB Lewis at 1 mile albeit the 1st day of February.
I look forward to Citizen Bull and Sovereignty to be more engaged for their final preps.
RE: Tampa Bay Derby (post positions)
1) Owen Almighty
2) Chancer McPatrick
3) Hill Road
4) Brodeur
5) Filoso
6) Naughty Rascal
7) Patch Adams
I suspect that Chancer McPatrick will be the favorite on the morning line, with Flavien Prat in the irons. However, in my view, Owen Almighty, with Irad Ortiz Jr. in the saddle, is the horse to beat. It remains to be seen if Patch Adams can replicate the form he displayed in his maiden win. He could be a sprinter/miler type.
I like Brodeur to lead the way and stay in the top three with a fair chance at the win.
CMcP will definitely be the favorite. I’m hoping that a speed duel develops between Owen Almighty and Brodeur. Then Hill Road will come flying for the win. He came from Ireland to contest the BC Juvenile, where he finished with good energy for third. Now with Chad Brown, Hill Road is bred for the classics. His second dam produced City of Light.
Here are the current futures for the TB Derby horses:
1. Patch Adams 25-1
2. Chancer McPatrick 30-1
3. Owen Almighty 55-1
4. Brodeur 60-1
5. Hill Road 75-1
6. Filoso 95-1
7. Naughty Rascal 100-1
Hill Road now 50-1…
I don’t bet much on futures…the day of is pretty good, and you’re guaranteed a starter! I did get down a tenner on Journalism….at 52-1…..and $4 wagers on Filoso…Rodriguez…First Resort—only $22 total, big gambler! But I like to have money on a horse that’s actually IN the race—usually throw $200 on Derby Day—last two years I got the winner!
Nice! Good luck with your futures and Derby day wagers!
I like futures because I can usually get more than a few Derby horses into the starting gate at odds substantially higher than available on Derby day. Then, I can concentrate on horses I don’t have in futures with my Derby day wagers. I have cashed for around $13.5k over the past 6 Derbys, but there are a lot of horses that didn’t make the Derby, that have to be factored in re total return and roi….
Today, Caesars Sportsbook Nevada posted their current Kentucky Derby Futures odds.
It comes as no surprise that four out of five, listed with the lowest odds, are Into Mischief colts, (Citizen Bull, Sovereignty, Barnes and Cornucopian). Citizen Bull remains the favorite at 7.5 to 1. There are several enticing longshots that might be worth laying a few bucks on, which are as follows:
Getawat Car, 35-1
Grande, 40-1
Baeza, 45-1
Caldera, 45-1
Tappan Street, 45-1
John Hancock, 50-1
Flood Zone, 50-1
Owen Almighty, 55-1 (entered in the Tampa Bay Derby)
Praetor, 88-1 (By Into Mischief, entered in R9, at GP, on 3-9)
Kale’s Angel, 125-1
Myriad Love, 175-1
Get those while you can folks. 🙂
Great information, Bill.
I would add Hill Road at 90-1; if he does well in TB Derby, his post-race odds should be significantly lower…
Thanks for the reply, biggy312.
I like Owen Almighty in the TB Derby..
He’s been right there or thereabouts in all career starts. Should he a great race.
Hill Road getting bet a bit: now 75-1
Juicy!
Definitely!
Bill, how can non NV residents get wagers in now? The caesars racebook I use doesnt have the option. Im in Va and believe john hancock and patch adams might be brads legit derby starters. I also have been watching captain cook and steve only validated my thoughts in this week’s rankings. I want in on the action!
Hi Russ
You can open an online account with “www.twinspires.com.
Good luck.
I like Baeza—but that’s an awful price! 45-1 with only obe chance to get in…and Citizen Bull and Journalism are in there, maybe Barnes? Should get 150-1…..
The great minds at Beyer & Co appear to have lowered Sovereignty’s FOY figure from 98 to 95. Could they have mistakenly not accounted for the extended run-up in their original “calculation”? Or is it just another example of the unreliability of their figure making!
It was a slow race for the level.
How so?
It was not slow. It had a faster early pace than the “San Felipe”.
Stop it…they know what they are doing….i give them a lot of credit for adjusting their number if needed…
He looked pretty good to me—that’s not exactly a closers paradise, and he came and got’em….
Completely agree.
…and it wasn’t a slow pony Sovereignty was trying to catch.
Steve, no mention of Getaway Car for the past two weeks. Of all the BB charges, he is bred for excess stamina and the right balance of speed to carry him the KD distance.
After watching the Sunland Derby replay, he was passed by Caldera at the 1/4 pole but never gave up with his stamina influence. He’s definitely worth keeping an eye on.
All of Baffert’s are being discussed next week but if you want me to mention him now Baffert says he has no plans right now. Will think about all of them in the next week. I usually don’t mention a horse if I have nothing to say about him. Unfortunately you won’t know any more next week. Lol. It’s Baffert. You go at his pace.
Getaway Car is a very nice horse….he’s not at the top level….Bob has better and so do others—but placed properly —Getaway Car could make a lot of moolah!
Sovereignty is a horse that I wouldn’t mind seeing draw the #1 post. It could be just what the Doctor ordered for the Bill Mott closer.
I bet Churchill would love to see a winner from the notorious number one hole so that they could tout the “fairness” of their fairly new starting gate. It’s been 39 years since Bill Shoemaker guided Ferdinand to victory for Charlie Whittingham at 25-1 from the rail post. Statistically, there should have been two more winners from the #1 post in the last 39 years. Could 2025 be the year? I think it would take a closer in a 20-horse field.
Any horse drawing rail in Derby is toast.
Agree Mike
Not saying Game Winner was going to win the Ark race a few weeks back, but he broke bad from the one hole and that was the end when rushed up and the door got slammed.
Thanks!
Stop it…they know what they are doing….i give them a lot of credit for adjusting their number if needed…
Ferdinand. Whittingham. Shoemaker. One of the best conditioning jobs in Kentucky Derby history. Whittingham took fitness to a whole new level, and kept his horses sound at the same time. It wasn’t work-as-far-and-as-fast-as-you-can in the mornings, and I’ll run you if you don’t fall apart. It was an art form. Thanks for the memories Tommy 🙂
In 2022, Epicenter and Zandon were two of just 4 horses that went off at under 10-1 in the Kentucky Derby. Those two seemed head and shoulders above the rest even though Taiba(5-1) and Messier(7-1) somehow also went off under 10-1. Messier???? Anyway, Epicenter and Zandon looked certain to finish one-two in the stretch before a bolt of lightning wearing the #21 came knifing through traffic after breaking from the #20 post at 80-1 to shock the world(except for one of our sharpest posters).
Sovereignty and Journalism feel a little like Epicenter and Zandon. I seriously doubt that any horse will be able to out-finish them. But both could be vulnerable to a BB or Pletcher runaway speedball. Or even a Brendan Walsh trainee back from purgatory.
Rich Strike got through traffic with his miracle run in ’22. Closers aren’t always so fortunate.
Whatever, still 2 months out, Sovereignty and Journalism look like good horses to key in trifecta and superfecta bets. Epicenter went off as the 4-1 favorite and Zandon 6-1. The beauty of a big 20-horse field.
Steve, this year’s Derby Trail is getting better and more exciting every weekend with the first tie no less by the deft racing historian par excellence. Will the same two equine marvels still be the locked together in a battle royal cone the first Saturday in May? Only the racing gods know the answer to that riddle and that secret remains hidden until the first nose reaches the finishing line at Churchill Downs come rain or come shine.
For all the plaudits given out to Sovereignty and Journalism, I was equally impressed with Flood Zone and perhaps has a better pedigree as well. I’m looking forward to your history lesson next week Steve as we ‘ride the trails.’
With the success of Forever Young last year the UAE Derby should not be ignored and the Virginia Derby intrigues me along with the winner of the Fukuryu Stakes and Jeff Ruby Steaks. It’s not just US dirt you have to consider anymore.
I was a little surprised where Sandman was allotted as I consider him vastly superior to several runners above him at this stage but I’ve been wrong before as has everyone. Ha ha
Thanks again, Steve, you never fail to incentivize the Derby Trail with your rankings every year. Perhaps CDI should start paying you a commission.
Thanks so much David. I really appreciate it..it’s funny how people either love Sandman or feel he’s just a bridesmaid who is always going to make you believe the one he’ll win. I’m somewhere in the middle. I actually liked his last race when Ms y were down on him. So I’ll keep him in top 12 and see if he moves forward.
Oops…the next one he’ll win
Steve, with the preps, I’m not so much concerned who actually wins but which colt(s) appears as though an extra 2 furlongs would be of benefit or negatively, a handicap.
Sandman has always given the impression to me he is a genuine Classic distances runner and every race is an improvement on the last. Had the Rebel Stakes been 10 furlongs and not 1 1/16 mile who wins?
It will be interesting to see how Bob Baffert plays his next hand, often you believe his runners are one dimensional speed when it’s merely a tactic or the colt is too fast for the competition in that race.
David’s I like Sandman quite a bit—Im also a fan of Sovereignty..and am still on the Burnham Square band wagon…I’ve soured some, on Rodriguez…I still think Barnes is a Derby contender and am all in of Journalism!…..and there’sthat great big dark son of City of Light named Filoso, who caught my eye last Fall….about to hit the ground at Tampa—I cant exactly say WHAT it is about him I like—but I like him!..!
Matthew, good luck with Filoso in the Tampa Bay Derby. It’s an odd prep for the Kentucky Derby as it stands up best as an indicator for the Belmont Stakes. I’ve noted you like Filoso so I’ll have my fingers crossed he gets those points. Very balanced pedigree of speed and stamina.
I’m was never high on Rodriguez as a Derby horse. With Barnes, I hope they just let him settle up close and avoid the lead, there is no doubt he can rate. Journalism looks unbeatable in California. With Sovereignty, I’m not as convinced. Burnham Square is not for me but good luck with him in the future.
Keeping things clearly into PERSPECTIVE.
I’ve always kept Barnes ranked #9 or 10 on my kmi’s 10+1 Derby list since week 1, as he had only sprinted twice including his debut. It remained unforseen how he would handle a 2 turn route until his race in the G2 San Felipe.
Considering the ‘conditions’ of the race, all entrants would be weighted at 124 lbs., UNLESS they hadn’t won OVER a mile OR hadn’t won a grade 1 or grade 2 race. If the horse met those 2 conditions, an allowance to carry 4 lbs less than G2 winner Journalism (LosAlFuturity) would be allowed. The conditions are intended to balance out the playing field, sorta speak.
For most of the field, the G2 San Felipe route was a big step UP. The race turned out to be impressive for both Journalism and Barnes, with the former coming off a 2½ month break, to tie Magnitude as rated with the best performance routing so far this year. Then Barnes stretching out 1st time to take a respectful 2nd to Journalism, while earning the 2nd best performance of the year on his 1st routing attempt.
Alot to look forward to as the derby preps will be leveling up to 9 and 9½ furlongs. Also glad to see your rankings came through Steve, keep up the great work.
The trainer of Citizen Bull had five BCJ winners prior to CB. Only one, Game Winner, got to the derby, and he finished 6th.
+
The trainer of Citizen Bull has had seven previous derby winners, including Medina Spirit. None contested the BCJ.
=
???
Just read that Journalism carried 4 more pounds than Barnes in the San Felipe Derby. Putting another feather 🪶 in Journalism’s cap 🧢.
Correct. The rest of the field carried 120 lbs to his 124 lbs.
I wasn’t quite sure why Sovereignty was #1 on your list but man oh man was that impressive in the Fountain of Youth! I’m a huge Bill Mott fan and know that man will always do right by the horse so I’m excited he has top looking 3 year old for the Derby! Can’t wait to see him run again!
I am a fan of Journalism as well that was a very impressive run down of Barnes – who to me looks like a sprinter.
And Sandman is rounding out my top 3 – love the name and the horse!
Thanks Steve always enjoying reading these rankings!
p.s. think there’s any chance Dettori can find a live 3 year old for this derby ? I”m hoping he can get one of Bob’s but you never know.
Hi Steve – Glad to hear that Keep It Easy is going to be ok following having to be eased in the FOY. Did Dale Romans reveal what the ‘small problem that KIE had’? Is he off the derby trail now or is it possible he could get in one more prep in APR?
That’s all he said. I’m deducing from what Terry Dinley said he’s not on the Derby trail but he didn’t specifically say that.
Will Rodriguez now be off the Derby trail or will they draw a line through that race? I really thought he’d be in the mix at the finish.
Baffert said he lost his composure going to the paddock and they have to make some adjustments.
EXTRAORDINARIO
Gracias Eugenio
Steve, I have Journalism just a tick higher than Sovereignty only b/c of that 108 Beyer which I understand is only a (slight) diff between them. And, the last horse to win the San Felipe with a figure that high was California Chrome who earned a 108 in 2014. He then of course went on to win the Kentucky Derby & Preakness. I’m a bit of a Chromie, so I’m just bias. 😉
Hi Michelle… to each their very much their own and please don’t take this as a know it all comment…but using BSF for young 3yr olds…it’s just about useless. Journalism was much “slower” according to Beyer than the two Baffert horses and Getaway Car had the 10th best bsf in the field when he won last out. That isn’t to say journalism isn’t a beast- he most certainly is- but not because of his BSF. Just one person’s humble opinion.
Yup, the same Andy Beyer that has picked three KD winners from the last 17 editions…. based on his magical numbers.
Personally, I use a black marker over the BSFs in the Racing Form. Purely based on speed and final time. Does not take into consideration many other variables.
As Steve mentioned, Thoro-Graph is a good source, also Ragozin Sheets.
Yes Zany, the same Beyer who stated Zenyatta was ‘slow’. Lol How did that work out?
Yeah, he also said Seattle Slew was slow. lol
Lol Andrea! For myself, little he says do I pay attention to.
I can certainly see ranking Journalism a tick higher, but I would based on his versatilty and beiing handier of the two. But Beyers never influence me especialy going 1 1/16 miles on March 1. I’m more interested in a horse’s Thoro-Graph pattern to see how he is progressing and pojecting where he’ll be on Derby Day at 1 1/4 miles. Beyers only deal with speed and nothing more. It can be a useful tool, but I dont rank Derby horses based on it,
Ok, thx. I’m kind of new at this so feedback is helpful. I see a ton of emphasis on speed as a factor for Derby winners, so it’s hard to ignore the noise.. I do try to follow patterns but have not gotten into the nitty-gritty of Thoro-Graph. I’ll take another look. Last season I checked into the program but I was overwhelmed by the info. I plan to do more of a deep dive in the near future.
Speed has been a positive factor as long as there isn’t too much of i as we saw in 2022 and 23. Also you don’t want to set speed records too early. You have to peak on Derby day.
Me also Michelle.
Steve- this edition of the Derby Dozen should be framed. What great back stories on these colts! True fans of this sport more than appreciate your writing. What a joy to read.
Thank you.
Thank you very much , Matthew . I really appreciate that. I love finding the back stories and it’s always gratifying to know that people enjoy and appreciate them. I feel the back stories often go unnoticed and they are a major reason why this sport is so special.
Thanks Steve!
Super impressed y both of your #1s….they justified your having them 1/2 so far! My heart is with Coal Battle, so happy to see you moved him from 7 to 4. The other two seem so brilliant, and CB comes across as just a hard working guy doing his job.
I love Coal Battle as well as Journalism for me and of course i have to hope Caldera can get in next month as i have a small piece of him.
Caldera will be interesting to see if he further develops.
Journalism should be Number 1. You have a good list. Coal Battle is too high. Nothing mentioned on Cornucopian or Baeza. Both can win the Big One!
They might be good horses down the road but Cornucopian and Baeza have no chance. Google Taiba and you’ll see why!
Glen, CB isn’t too high. All he does is win.
Hi Steve, do you know when Romanesque is going to run? He worked 2/22 6F out of the gate in 1:11.80 and 3/1 5F in 1:01.40 out of the gate. He has multiple gate works so may have a problem breaking, but his first two races i didn’t notice any issues.
I believe Bob is thinking one turn with him where he needs to break sharply but I will ask next time I check in with him.
Have Steve have you asked when REPRESENTITIVE is going to making his debut, seems odd he has been working good for this long and still no race.
I don’t like overwhelming Bob with too many questions.. I pick and choose who is most important
Todd Pletcher will receive a seven-day suspension for his horse, (Vassimo) testing positive for Betamethasone. Rules are rules. It’s hard to understand why trainers continue to break medication rules, when they are clearly spelled out
After the Dodgers left NY, were you still a fan?
No.
No, but I loved watching the early 60s team with Maury wills , Jim Gilliam, Tommy and Willie Davis Frank Howard, Koufax an Drysdale. Most exciting team ever.
Steve, just received two cards I added to my collection and realized they happen to be Brooklyn Dodgers. 1953 Billy Loes and 1954 Johnny Podres. The old cards are like little time capsules.
I loved Johnny Podres. Won game 7. and my father caught a home run in center field upper deck he gave up to Frank Robinson.
In the mid sixties was living in Fallbrook, Californian when my dad ran into Duke Snyder at a grocery store. Found out he retired and bought an avocado farm and a bowling alley there. Actually graduated with one of his sons, Kurt, whom we all called Snydo.
Awesome!
Frank Robinson taught Pete Rose the ropes of MLB. Rose was internally grateful to Frank
To use a Lord of the Rings meme: One does not simply pass a Baffert loose on the lead. Between the raw clock, the figures, and the eye, I’ll put Journalism ahead of Sovereignty. Plus it’s hard to not like a Curlin. We shall see what they do at 9 panels but next week’s Derby future wager pool is the time to lock them in at what should still be a solid price.
Not impressed by numbers, but how Journalism and Sovereignty did it.
Barnes lost a shoe early in race. May have made a difference. Also his first 2 Turn Race.
He ran nice but got run down fair n square…Journalism is the best of the West!
Exactly!
Journalism was going off a 3 month layoff so no excuses
Journalism is so responsive to his rider. Rated inside and slid smoothy to the outside and did his job. Sovereignty is a train, but he had to be strongly encouraged to get going. I would rather own Journalism.
His jockey moved him up and back, up and back, that won’t work in the Derby, Rispoli is a liability.
Sovereignty had been off over 4 months, may be why he took a while to respond.
As a Lord of the Rings fan, I got a kick out of your opening line! Well said. Thanks, Justin!
Happy late Monday Steve.
I am not surprised that you had Jounalism & Sovereignty both ranked #1.
Both horses ran a great race. IMO, I would rank Sovereignty slightly ahead of Journalism.
The San Felipe Stakes had a short field & Jouralism had a wide open stretch to run in.
However, my Derby pick so far is Citizen Bull.
Thanks for your great work Steve, much appreciated.
American Promise had a beautiful work at Oaklawn Park today
6 furlong-1.11.80b
Wayne Lukas may have a sleeper here
Currently 300-1 at William Hill
Seriously doubt it.
Hoping is best sleeper wins the Louisanna derby next month. Caldera
Great column, as usual, Steve. Hard to separate Journalism and Sovereignty, both have returned in fine form on the road to Kentucky. East -vs- West, let’s hope this turns into a spirited rivalry… it would be great for the sport.
Enjoyed the story regarding Joe Adcock and his son Jim’s connection to Coal Front. I remember Joe Adcock when he was with the Milwaukee Braves. Him, Hank Aaron, Warren Spahn, et al, were a great team to follow while growing up. It’s funny, I still enjoy baseball today, but I’m hard pressed if I can name more than a few players on my favorite team, the Red Sox (sorry, Steve, I’m a New England boy from Maine). The roster is constantly changing from year to year and I need a scorecard just to get acquainted with all the new faces. Players, nowadays, just don’t stick with the same team like they used to in years past. Sort of like our favorite race horses, they just don’t stick around long enough to allow us to become attached to them.
BTW, I noticed that Showcase has showed up on the work tab yesterday. He breezed 3f at Payson Park. It seems too late to be ready for a start in the Derby, but if his issues are behind him, then I expect he’ll add some spice to this summer’s races.
Next stop, Tampa Bay.
Ted Wiliams, Jackie Jensen, Pete Runnels, Frank Malzone etc. Terrific team. I saw that Showcase worked. Too bad so late. He is a very talented horse. Youll hear from him soon.
Hi Steve, great list…as always! I am curious about a couple of horses not on the list…
First, did something happen to Disco Time or do you not think that he should not even be mentioned in the KOTD list? I’d be very surprised to hear if something happened to him (like an injury) because my Derby Fever starts with the BC Juvenile and I typically don’t miss any major news after that point.
Also, what are your thoughts on any Japan horses? You mentioned Opera Ballo from Europe, but they have never sent a horse from the European derby trail and the Japanese connections have sent one every year. I thought the one-two finishers from the Hyacinth looked really good….Luxor Cafe (by Am. Pharoah) who won that race, but also Promised Gene who was a rocket coming to the wire and was a very close second. Just curious…thanks!
I would mention Disco Time if he had done something but I don’t text Brad Cox so I just waited to see if he showed up. Not much yet from Japan.
Thanks Steve. I was wondering how you would rank these two and you split them. Good move.
I didn’t think Sovereignty was going to get there nor did I think Journalism would, but they both showed what they are made of. I especially liked your information on how they both were broken and had their early at Bridlewood Farm in Ocala. You can’t make this stuff up. If they continue down this Derby Road and end up i9n the starting gate together–my my–the stuff that dreams are made of.
At this point, I like Journalism on top. He breaks sharp and can then settle, staying closer, then go with a relentless yet smooth stride that, to my eye, was just starting to go full as he passed Barnes. He certainly wants more.
No way can I discount Sovereignty’s win, but he takes his time at the break and settles well back. This style, to me, sets up more for him to do.
Hope your cataracts are treating you well and all went ok.
Thanks. It’s next Monday. All good points.
I really like Flood Zone. People will look at his final time in the Gotham and think it was slow, but the Aqueduct track was like running in quicksand all day, and he ran almost a half second faster than older horses in the Stymie. I also like his breeding by Frosted out of a Curlin mare. Throw in his new trainer, Brad Cox, and you have a potent mix for a Derby longshot.
Both colts were impressive, but if I had to choose at this still-early point, I’d vote for Journalism at No. 1.
I just noticed that Praetor, who beat Sovereignty in his maiden win, is entered in the 9th race at GP, on March 9th. By Into Mischief, out of Curlin mare, Praetor hasn’t raced since his maiden win on Sept. 27th but has been working steadily for Chad Brown leading up to this race. In the event Praetor wins the race, Brown has several options moving forward on the Derby trail.
Bill, isn’t Praetor also a candidate for the Tampa Bay Derby? I haven’t seen entries for that race yet.
Actually, just checked and the entries are not yet up at DRF. Another horse of interest who might run is FILOSO.
Hi Ms Blacktype
Praetor was not mentioned as a candidate for the TB Derby. He’s officially entered in the race that I referenced, and the likely morning line favorite.
Wasn’t expecting a list this early on Monday. No issues with the top two, as they both performed to expectation. Journalism is a beast regardless of what BB or any other trainer out West decide to run against him.
As for Barnes, he ran his race and tried very hard until the last 1/16th. Unfortunately for him, Journalism was the better horse that day.
There was no denying Sovereignty in the FOY. Four months away from the races is a long time.
My only slight concern is….Journalism faced 4 horses and Sovereignty faced 5 horses. The KD is a free for all with a 20 horse field. Journalism might have a slight edge based on his gate speed and stalking preference. Sovereignty is a stone cold closer.
If the Derby gods are smiling down on Sovereignty it doesn’t matter, he’ll find a way home just like Mine that Bird, Rich Strike, Mage etc. If I had a stone closer the last thing I’d want is a 5 horse field.
Let’s hope the Derby gods are in a good mood this year….and these warriors stay healthy and ready for the big dance.
Agreed!
I second your comment. Also, Sovereignty didn’t mind going wide on the turn, both times.
I love how you think, Steve, as we are both on the same page, at this point, anyway. Who knows what the future races will change. I was so disappointed when it was discovered that Magnitude was injured and off the Triple Crown trail. But I have a question that you may already know the answer. How important is a race with a large field to a Derby contender? How many winners have there been in the recent past that have only had races with small fields? I wonder if stats had something to do with Churchill Downs giving less points to winners of prep races with 5 or less in the race.
You always would like a large prep field especially if you’re a closer. But with several speed horses winning the Derby it doesn’t matter how many are behind you if you’re good enough like justify. But in the end a lot of it is who gets lucky on Derby Day. The seas are going to part for the lucky ones and if its not your day they won’t. But in general 5 horse preps can leave you unprepared for what you’re going to see in the Derb.y
Things in Common: My father took me to my first Dodgers game in August 1956 when I was 5 1/2. Everybody was saying “today you will see the Man!” I had no idea they were referring to Stan Musial!
I woke up this morning thinking ‘would Steve have CO Number 1’s in this weeks Rankings?”
My first game was also against the Cardinals in 1955
Hi Steve
Thank you for providing yet another great analysis on your top Derby prospects. I fully understand the difficulty you faced in separating Journalism and Sovereignty as to which one deserves top ranking. In your Derby Rankings-Week 5, I posted a comment stating my reason for ranking Journalism at #1 and Sovereignty at #2, which was based on speed figures and pedigree preference.
I’m encouraged by the fact that we share the same six colts on your current top twelve rankings.
On a side note, I always admired Vin Scully who broadcast the Dodgers games for 67 years. His recall, brilliantly told during the course of any given game, was nothing short of amazing. In addition, he had the perfect tenor voice to keep listeners captivated.
I’m sure you have several stories that you could provide on Vin Scully’s brilliant career.
Bill, my family original came from New York (born in Buffalo, dad from Rochester, mother from Niagrara Falls). My dad was always a ‘Dem Bums’ fan listening to Vin Scully on WMGM-The Station of the Stars. He says Scully was a young red headed kid from Fordham University that followed the Dodgers out to LA.
I’ll give you a little known secret about the movement west of the Giants and Dodgers. The commissioner held a coin flip as to what the winning team would choose-LA or San Francisco. Horace Stoneham won the flip and choose SF. They struggled for years while the O’Malleys racked in the money.
Thanks for the reply, John
That’s a very interesting story, I never knew heard about that coin flip.
With a broader fan base, it’s not surprising that the Dodgers “racked in the money”.
When I was in the Air Force, stationed near San Franciso, I attended several Giants games just to see the “Say Kid”, Willie Mays. One of greatest baseball players of all time, IMO.
Edit: The Say Hey Kid
Vin Scully in all these years never said a word that wasn’t perfect or a sentence that wasn’t perfectly constructed. I have it in my mind that early on he would call home runs with the term Bye Bye Baby bur could be imagining it.
Burnham Square looked very dull in the paddock Saturday.
He did look to reengage after he was passed.
If he paired his Holy Bull number that’s a healthy pattern and would need a step forward in his next race.
Burnham Square—in his 3 length loss. ..uppedhis Beyer #from a 90 to a 94….
he looked totally beaten coming out of the turn, then found something and was coming. may have come back too soon, BG next, can’t wait
I was blown away by BOTH #1s….When I saw Journalism blow past Barnes—I knew it would Beyer high—Horse Racing is funny, that way—where a highly rated performance can precede a “dud”…but I am looking forward to seeing my boy chase Citizen Bull! You can call Journalism “The Bob-inator”, always beating Bob—Sovereignty remindedme of Zenyatta—big and datlrk and he came and got them! Horse Racing is in fora fantastic rivalry! And get ready to meet Umberto Rispoli,the “life of the jockey room”! A upbeat persona, of many words. And if several languages, and each one fluent.. .
Thanks Steve. Good stuff. Barnes losing a shoe is significant. But I don’t know how much. I do remember NY Traffic losing a shoe while one of the pacesetters in the 2020 Kentucky Derby only to fall back.
No problem with the deadheat at the top of the heap. The two horses will sort it out at some point. I can make cases for both. Still 2 months to go.
At this point, a Sovereignty-Journalism-Coal Battle trifecta box looks pretty good for the Derby. But it is not that easy in a 20-horse Derby.
I’m confident that Steve Haskin will come up with a bomber or two on Derby Day.
I’m not sure Barnes ran as poorly as people say—1200 lbs and acted up pre— race….l(accidently posted on Ron Turcotte’s page—I’m blind!!)..
i dont think anyone thinks he ran poorly , i think he just got beat by a better horse , even if he lost a shoe, journalism was coming off a layoff so they even out. I don’t think Barnes wants to go much further and there are plenty that do.
A few folks think that at 2/5on Barnes did not run well…..
Those folks probably will no come to this site and elegantly voice their opinion.
He ran awesome with a 105 BSF. 2nd best for this years crop. If he can develop by rating, he can be the undervalue horse on KD day. Journalism mentally looks stronger than Barnes at this time. Can Barnes relax and move forward? Bandwagon jumpers are in full force.
No argument about the co-favorites. Even if one of them has a whisker of an edge over the other, why split hairs. [Sorry!] Nice to see Poster working, gaining weight, and appearing (reappearing?) in the Dozen. Could we see a Godolphin exacta in the derby?
It would be reasonable to assume that the top two have a derby advantage by winning graded stakes at 2 and at 3. But I think that Nyquist, American Pharoah, and Street Sense are the only derby winners in the past 20 years to accomplish that feat. A number of well-bet double stakes winners have disappointed in the derby. I guess you could focus on 3 of 20 rather than 17 of 20.
As for Barnes, I tend to be skeptical (as Steve said) about a horse that has a clear lead at the top of the stretch and loses one of its last two preps. Who’s to say if the alleged lost shoe had an effect on Barnes performance? At what point in the race did he lose the shoe?
Just read your story about going to Ebbets Field You probably saw a friend of mine playing third base for the Dodgers. His name was Billy Cox. Billy was from Newport, Pennsylvania just seven miles from where I grew up. I used to play cards with him and shoot pool with him also. The great sportscaster Curt Gowdy said Billy was the best fielding third baseman he ever saw.
I remember him well. Back then the Dodgers were like gods.
Stave…I was introduced to Bob Welch, at Los Alamitos—and we hit it off like besties!—Bob had ADHD–when he asked a question and you were answering it—he would fire off another question! He showed me a baseball card that said as much–Bob would call me up and want to play catch—he’d measure off the distance between 2nd base and home plate—tell me to close my eyes—then yell “BASKET”—for his curve…and “glove up” for his fastball, which in his early 50s had softened to 79 mph….Bob was one of my best friends of my lifetine—we watched a lot of games together, he LOVED baseball…he also loved fishing, and he took me fishing on January 28, 2009—my 50th birthday….when the Dodgers were honoring their top 25 moments of the first 50 years in LA—Bob asked me to come and I was too busy—what was I thinking?….we would gpto the vatting cages, couple of 50 year olds–we spent a lot of money trying the 90mph pitches, eventually we got so we could hit them most of the time, and it would gather a crowd—one evening he picked up his friend, at a casino–‘he was sitting in a picnic chair in the back of his pickup truck–‘smoking a cigar….we went to the cages, three old men RAKING the 90mph pitches… afterwards getting a coffee drink I bragged about how Bob had the #4 all time moment, in LA Dodgers history, for striking out Reggie Jackson to win a World Series game, as a rookie in 1978—-Bob leans into me and mutters “that’s Kirk Gibson””!
…playing catch—he never missed my glove.
Steve: This was such a great column, so full of juicy nuggets of information. I especially loved the story tying Coal Battle to Joe Adcock, whose son Jay bred the horse. (That game was obviously magical for you — something that only happens when you see a knockout performance in temples of sport like the long-gone Ebbets Field, or today at Fenway Park or Saratoga.)
And you gave us a tie at the top of the leaderboard with the Big Two! I drifted off to sleep last night wondering if you’d do that (must have Derby fever). Also liked that you included some surprises in your top 12, such as Poster (looks like he has a bright future as a turf horse), a high placement for Flood Zone (ditto for me), Patch Adams (acid test in the Tampa Bay Derby Saturday) and Vassimo in KOTD. We’ve all smacked our heads watching horses that ran 4th (or worse) in a penultimate prep end up winning the Derby, so I’m not counting out either Vassimo or Burnham Square at this point.
Ms Blacktype, no horse that finished worse than fourth in either of the final two preps has won the derby in several decades. I’d stick with 4th-place finishers or better!
I was specifically thinking of Sea Hero who finished fourth in the Blue Grass in 1993, and Mage, who was fourth in the Fountain of Youth last year. And, in a minor quibble, Mandaloun won on the DQ of Medina Spirit in ’21 after running 6th in his last prep., the Louisiana Derby.
My point is, do not overlook horses that finish 4th in either of their last two preps. This year, that list will include Patch Adams, Vekoma, and Burnham Square.
Hi Steve – The Cream is beginning to rise to the top and Certainly Journalism and Sovereignty deserve top billing. I am partial to Journalism because I bet him back in DEC in the KDFW. You’ve got to love that Journalism always breaks great and gets into a rhythm not to far off of the pace before he launches his relentless run. This horse exudes class and with his pedigree and jockey , who fits him like a glove, and M Mcarthy and Aaron Welmann, he certainly is in good hands to make his presence felt in the KY Derby. With a 20 horse field , you would have to believe that he would be forward enough to be at least in front of half the field at the 1/4 mark. Whereas Sovereignty is a confirmed deep closer and might have to pass them all. The great thing is that Journalism doesn’t have to win the SA Derby to get in. With 47 points, he’s already in. With that said, I do believe he will beat Citizen Bull. IMO Barnes is better than CB. CB did win the Juvenile on a lone lead as a longshot. CB better bring his running shoes to beat Journalism.
Thanks Steve for a great analysis. Would love to see your thoughts on the following:
1) people may jump off Barnes bandwagon after first time route 105 BSF. Improvement comes from rating in my view; if Barnes learned to rate, would you consider him more?
2) Barnes breeding, what’s ur opinion on his to make the distance?
3) If he had a race as a two year old, I really like the San VIncent, San Felipe, and a derby prep to peak for the KD. Your take?
I would definitely like him more if he rated and was trained that way but he’s just too fast against those horses. I still think he will rate. There is nothing in his pedigree to suggest he won’t get 1 1/4 miles . Strong female family. not sure he’ll run against Bull in S A Derby but if he moves forward wherever he runs he definitely can peak on Derby day.
Joe, excited for the two winners.
Back to back weekend wins. Smoking hot
I think both number 1s are amazing but i do believe that when you see Journalism after he passed Barnes grabbing the bit and quicken told me they haven’t got anywhere near the bottom of him and the longer the better.. If that last 16th of 6 seconds without him being fully cranked( according to MM) was a sign ,he could be something special going longer. I don’t think anyone will lose any sleep of the two co’s. Actually the tie breaker could be as easy as something the 2 of you have in common, Journalism. lmao
Just hoping they all stay uninjured and would love to see Coal Battle win the Kentucky Derby!
Coal Battle is a’Rocky’ story, much like CA Chrome.
Nice list Steve.
Rumor on X that Barnes lost a shoe in the San Felipe.
Can anybody confirm this?
Thanx
I texted Baffert a while ago . Still waiting to hear. If so I may move him up a spot or two
Thank you Steve
Just heard, yes he did
Thanx again
U R THE BEST !!!
Mr. Haskin, your writing is extraordinary as always. You pegged it, both horses have the goods and can go long.
Baffert stated that Barnes lost a shoe coming out of the gate, but added that he was not using that as an excuse.
Excellent article as always. Spot on with Sovereignty and Journalism above the rest even before last week. Really enjoying this TC trail so far this year, hope everyone stays healthy the rest of the way.
I think Sovereighty had the slightly better gallop out but Journalism probably has the tactical advantage in a 20 horse field. I was personally predicting the dead heat at the top and 100% agree with our “steward” who made the call!
I agree Sovereignty surged at the end and kept going through the gallop out. He ran the last 1/16 in about the same time as Journalism.
Thanks Steve and everyone for all of the insight, etc. I’m embarassed to ask — but what is KOTD?
It’s Steve’s Knocking On The Door section.