2025 Kentucky Derby Rankings – Week 7
With last week’s stakes extravaganza helping to clear up the Derby picture, at least at the top, we’ve had a little lull with the Tampa Bay Derby being inconclusive and this week’s Virginia Derby adding a new element to the Derby trail. Then the real fun begins with the 100-point make or break races and some important trainer decisions to be made. ~ Steve Haskin
Derby Rankings: March 10, 2025 – Week 7
By Steve Haskin
1—Journalism (Mike McCarthy, Curlin – Mopotism, by Uncle Mo)
1—Sovereignty (Bill Mott, Into Mischief – Crowned, by Bernardini)
The question now is who will step up and take on racing’s new dynamic duo? Everyone is excited over Journalism’s 108 Beyer figure, and while it is impressive, what bearing will it have on the Kentucky Derby two months away stretching out from 1 1/16 miles to 1 ¼ miles? We know he’ll get the distance with no problem, but ideally you want him to run that 108 the first week in May much more than the first week in March. To me, what made his San Felipe so impressive was the versatility he showed and the willingness to be placed wherever his rider wanted him. He showed he could break sharply and be close up early, then take back several lengths and settle beautifully on the inside behind Barnes, move to the outside and put it in high gear, powering past Barnes and drawing clear with a sharp :06 flat final sixteenth while Barnes is pulling 9 ½ lengths clear of Rodriquez in third. Now that is a Derby horse. To show the progress he’s made, his Thoro-Graph pattern has been “10 ½…7 ¾…5 ½…and a negative ½” in the San Felipe. It’s not how fast that number is as much as it is the way he got there and all the qualities he demonstrated. Now he just has to stay around there and repeat this type of performance in the Santa Anita Derby against Citizen Bull, the defending front-running champ with far more proven class and two-turn experience than Barnes, and leave enough to peak on Derby Day. But right now he looks like a superstar in the making.
As for Sovereignty, he has a different method of achieving the same result, and like Journalism, once he gets into that huge stride he is relentless, much like Sierra Leone was last year, but being much more professional. So far he hasn’t shown he’s as handy and maneuverable as Journalism, but consider that the Churchill Downs stretch is 1,234 feet and he just came from last and ran down a very good horse through a 690-foot shortened stretch when the entire world felt he needed the race. So imagine what he can do when he’s dead-fit at a more preferable distance and on a track over which he’s already won a stakes by open lengths. Although his 95 Beyer (reduced from 98?) is well below Journalism, his pattern of “9 ½…6…5 ¾…1 ¾.” is perfect and shows a horse who has made great progress from 2 to 3 while still leaving room for improvement. Both horses might be facing small fields again, and in the Florida Derby he also should be taking on a tougher foe to catch in Tappan Street, coming off a big effort in the Holy Bull off only one career start. But what makes both these horses so exceptional and with so much promise is the fact neither was even close to 100 percent in their debuts coming off layoffs, with Sovereignty having several interruptions in his work schedule and only a handful of mostly easy half-mile breezes. We can only imagine what they’ll be like fully cranked.
3—Citizen Bull (Bob Baffert, Into Mischief – No Joke, by Distorted Humor)
He had his second six-furlong work since the Robert B. Lewis, this time going the distance in a sharp 1:12 3/5 on Saturday, and did it on his own without company. This was one of the best works I’ve seen in a while. He broke off running and just kept getting stronger without any urging and was really reaching out with great extension. He finally was asked passing the wire and really began to motor, cutting the corner beautifully and continuing strong into the backstretch, galloping out seven furlongs in a super 1:25 4/5. Having given him time off after the Lewis, Baffert has really tightened the screws and should have a dead-fit horse when he faces Journalism in what will be the most widely anticipated showdown of the year and certainly one of the most strategic. With Baffert’s target being those once familiar Twin Spires that have been out of sight for three years, he has built a powerful army to attack on all fronts. But The Bull keeps sending out reminders, in the morning and afternoon, that among those troops he is still the general.
4—Coal Battle (Lonnie Briley, Coal Front – Wolfblade, by Midshipman)
His rise from the bush tracks to leading Kentucky Derby contender certainly has created a huge fan base who are rooting for him and his 72-year-old trainer, whose earnings have soared to nearly $2 million over the past two years thanks to Coal Battle’s four consecutive stakes victories. What is interesting is that the trainers of this colt’s sire and broodmare sire combined to win eight Kentucky Derbys and 23 classics. They are, of course, Todd Pletcher and Bob Baffert, who have multiple horses lined up to stop him. The big question is how this little colt, who came out of a Texas yearling sale, will fare when he faces the heavy hitters going a mile and a quarter. He could very well face one of them in the Arkansas Derby if Barnes, who only cost $3.13 million more than Coal Battle, shows up. So how good is Coal Battle, who has shown he can beat you from anywhere on the track, whether coming from the back of the pack, mid-pack, or on the lead every step of the way, from five furlongs to 1 1/16 miles, on fast, muddy, and sloppy tracks. For those who follow Beyer figures, his fastest number is only a 91 in the Rebel Stakes, but he is still on a solid Thoro-Graph pattern, improving from “13 ½ to 10 to 8 ¾ to 6 ¾ to 3,” which puts him only a couple of points from the top-ranked horses. No one knows where he’ll be in the Arkansas Derby but he’ll be coming.
5—Captain Cook (Rick Dutrow, Practical Joke – Pow Wow Wow, by Indian Charlie)
I think it has been established he has some powerful statistics and facts, which we have addressed over the past several weeks, to back up the belief he is a very serious horse. We are talking speed, versatility, a powerful Thoro-Graph pattern, ability to adjust to any pace from six furlongs to 1 1/8 miles, a renowned female family going back nine generations, a significant improvement with each start, and a Kentucky Derby-winning trainer. Of course we are going by only a three-race career with an owner and trainer change and not yet facing anything close to the competition he will be facing from now on. Some may question a son of Practical Joke going 1 ¼ miles, but as we mentioned he does have a strong and storied female family, and we have seen what a strong female family can do in the Derby with a sire who was a miler or sprinter. Dutrow actually has already trained one in dual Classic winner Big Brown, whose sire was a pure sprinter. And Captain Cook, stretching out from seven furlongs to 1 1/8 miles in only his third career start, came home his final eighth in :12 3/5 over a dead racetrack. He has shown he has all the elements needed to be a top horse, except one, and that is class, which is something he’ll have to prove in the Wood Memorial.
6—Barnes (Bob Baffert, Into Mischief – All American Dream , by American Pharoah)
This colt in many ways has become the face of horse racing, as odd as that may sound. He is a son of the “sire of the stars,” the hottest, most sought after stallion in many years. He sold as a yearling for an outrageous $3.2 million. He is trained by Bob Baffert. He was sent off at 1-5 in his career debut. He was made the 8-1 favorite in the Kentucky Derby Future Wager despite having run in only two sprint races. After getting beat in his first start around two turns his reputation skyrocketed back up when it was learned he had run a 105 Beyer speed figure. Even his Thoro-Graph pattern is ultra impressive (“ 7 ½…3…1 ½”). Welcome to Racing 2025. What a great story if he squares off against li’l ‘ol Coal Battle in the Arkansas Derby in the sport’s version of “When Worlds Collide.” But as we get deeper into the Derby grind there comes a time when the steak has to replace the sizzle, and that time has come for Barnes as he prepares to get down and dirty in the trenches of either the Arkansas Derby or whatever important battlefield he is sent to. In the Baffert barn there usually is someone more exciting moving up the ranks behind you, and now it is the latest missile named Cornucopian who is on everyone’s lips, leaving Barnes as another brilliant member of the Baffert Brigade looking to get to Churchill Downs, where his trainer can announce to everyone. “I have returned!” And with a horse whose owner was deprived of Derby glory, even if there was no other recourse.
7—Flood Zone (Brad Cox, Frosted – Curls For Girls , by Curlin)
He is another example of the unknown being more exhilarating and fascinating than the known. Is this horse as good as he looked in the Gotham? Can he duplicate that performance against more accomplished horses going two turns for the first time? How did his Beyer figures soar from a pathetic 48 to a stakes-caliber 85 with the addition of Lasix? How did he change barns, come off Lasix, and have his Beyer figure shoot up to a 98 in his stakes debut and first time not facing Florida-breds? When his Thoro-Graph number zoomed from a sluggish “15 ½” to a sensational “3 ½,” why didn’t he “bounce” off such a huge jump and instead paired up the “3 1/2,” putting himself in position to move forward and put himself right up there with the leading contenders? Remember the line Butch Cassidy kept repeating when he and Sundance couldn’t shake the posse chasing them – “Who are those guys?” Well, it’s time to ask, “Who is this guy?” Where did he come from and why is he doing things he’s not supposed to do, even though he keeps going off at higher odds each race, from 11-1 to 16-1 to 17-1? Did someone ask him why a son of a record-breaking Met Mile winner with Curlin and Tapit as grandparents sold at the Ocala June 2-year-old sale for a mere $45,000 after failing to meet his reserve in the January and March sales, once for $24,000? Hopefully we will find out just who this horse is in either the Florida Derby or Wood Memorial.
8—Burnham Square (Ian Wilkes, Liam’s Map – Linda, by Scat Daddy)
When it comes to the Derby we sometimes can be very unforgiving when it comes to losing. Some high-profile horses like Barnes can maintain their status with a defeat, while other horses like Burnham Square drop off everyone’s radar even though he was beaten only three lengths, matched his career-high Thoro-Graph number, and the horse he beat in the Holy Bull Stakes right now is considered the main threat to Sovereignty in the Florida Derby. We should keep reminding ourselves that the last five Kentucky Derby winners (excluding September winner Authentic) lost their final prep, and only two of the five had ever won a stakes. This is not to imply that Burnham Square should not lose some stature after failing to improve, or even duplicate, his performance in the Holy Bull. But if you felt that victory was legitimate and you were high on him, then it might be premature to dismiss him off a race in which he appeared to be struggling on the turn and then finally got in gear when it was too late and was trying to run on after the wire. Remember, running back in the Fountain Youth after winning the Holy Bull is something that is rarely attempted, and of the three horses in 34 years who won both races, only Mohaymen made it the Derby, and the three who won both never even threatened in the Florida Derby. So Ian Wilkes, feeling a defeat now was just a straw in his path, wisely has decided to skip the Florida Derby and start fresh at Keeneland.
9—Poster (Eoin Harty, Munnings – Pin Up, by Tapit)
He’s keeping sharp with a five-furlong work in 1:01 4/5 at Turfway Park in preparation for the Jeff Ruby Steaks. This follows a five-furlong work in 1:02, so Harty should have him plenty fit for his synthetic track debut. Remember, he is two-for two on grass and already has a Grade 2 victory at 1 1/8 miles under his belt. His fast-closing third in the Sam F. Davis Stakes, rallying from 10th over a speed-favoring track at Tampa Bay, looks a lot better after runner-up Owen Almighty came back to wire his field by 3 ½ lengths in Saturday’s Tampa Bay Derby. I always feel it’s necessary to point out that he is a very late May 20 foal and for a horse who won’t turn 3 until after the Preakness he has a lot of miles under him on all kinds of surfaces. But I also must point out he has yet to exceed an 83 Beyer figure for those who follow it. However, his Thoro-Graph pattern is more encouraging, going from a “13 ¼ and 12 on grass to a 6 ¾ and 4 ¼ on dirt. So even a slight forward move on synthetic puts him in good shape to peak going back on dirt on Derby Day.
10—Chancer McPatrick (Chad Brown, Mckinzie – Bernardreamy, by Bernardini)
His return in the Tampa Bay Derby had its plusses and minuses, but under the circumstances it was mostly plusses. Being a fresh horse coming off a layoff and getting blinkers for the first time it wasn’t a complete surprise to see him racing close up down on the rail, and actually was pretty encouraging considering Owen Almighty, with two big races over the track and being the only speed in the race was out there on an easy lead. It was just a question whether he would still have the big closing kick that won him two Grade 1 stakes last year. He looked to be in good striking position cutting the corner turning for home, but Owen Almighty kicked clear with a :23 4/5 quarter and opened a four-length lead at the eighth pole. But Chancer McPatrick kept running hard and was beaten 3 ½ lengths even with the winner storming home his final sixteenth in a rapid :05 4/5. This was a solid and much-needed first race back, in which he finished almost three lengths ahead of his stablemate Hill Road and seven lengths ahead of the favorite Patch Adams, who had every chance to be up on the pace early, but was taken back, lost ground on the first turn, and came up empty. So, all in all it was a good enough performance to at least keep him in the top 12 and set him up for his final prep either in the Blue Grass or Wood Memorial. As for Owen Almighty, his trainer Brian Lynch again stated his decision would be to keep him at shorter distances.
11—Sandman (Mark Casse, Tapit – Distorted Music, by Distorted Humor)
Just waiting for him to have his first work since the Rebel. Not much else left to say about him until he runs in the Arkansas Derby and tries again to get a good setup and show he can get to the winner’s circle with a favorable trip. But you know if he’s flying down the stretch again and comes up short he will still have his backers in the Kentucky Derby going that extra quarter of a mile. A lot of people don’t realize he cost $1.2 million at the Ocala 2-year-old sale, so he obviously showed he had speed, as well as looks and pedigree. And as far as the 3-year-olds he is a veteran with seven starts and three graded stakes placings, but he does need to get faster. His pedigree is a good combination of speed and stamina, with him being inbred to Mr. Prospector four times and also to Unbridled top and bottom. His third dam is a half-sister to Alabama winner It’s in the Air, by Sadler’s Wells.
12—Caldera (Wayne Lukas, Liam’s Map – Send Me On My Way, by Tiznow)
Why not? It’s pretty much a grab bag down here and I am simply grabbing a horse who made a big impression even in defeat against a foe so much more experienced than him with proven class in Grade 1 company, having already shown courage under fire, and coming from the powerful Bob Baffert barn. And Caldera, coming off a maiden victory in which he improved big-time with blinkers, eyeballed Getaway Car down the entire Sunland stretch and just lost the head bob after being in front one step before the wire and one step after the wire. We’ll see what Getaway Car does in Saturday’s Virginia Derby, which could give us a better gauge on Caldera for the following week’s stamina and class test in the 1 3/16-mile Louisiana Derby. Despite the hard race in the Sunland Derby, Caldera has come back with a sharp five-furlong work in :59 1/5 at Oaklawn Park, and you don’t see many Lukas horses work that fast. For those who use the Beyer figures he still needs a good deal of improvement, but that is far from the case on Thoro-Graph after a four-point improvement with blinkers from a “12 ¾” to “8 ¾” he took a huge move forward to a “3 ½” in the Sunland Derby, which was 1 ½ points faster than Getaway Car. So call it gut feeling or simply being impressed with what I’ve seen, but not being enamored with anyone in particular to fill out the dozen I’ll go with an intriguing horse who could have a pretty high ceiling.
KNOCKING AT THE DOOR
Let’s take an early look at how the remaining preps might be shaping up, which of course is always subject to change. And we must preface this by saying that Bob Baffert, who should be set with CITIZEN BULL in the Santa Anita Derby, stated he “has nominated them all everywhere and whoever is doing well that week jumps on a plane.” Does he send BARNES to the Arkansas Derby or wait a week for something else? You surely wouldn’t think the Santa Anita Derby is in play. Does he send MADAKET ROAD back to Oaklawn after his big effort in the Rebel? Does he give RODRIGUEZ another shot somewhere after he “lost his composure” going to the paddock before the San Felipe and will have “adjustments made.” He surely is a much better horse than he showed, finishing a well-beaten third. And what should we expect from the once highly regarded GAMING, who after a disastrous trip in the Southwest Stakes, returned to the worktab with a pair of bullet works – five furlongs in :59 2/5 and six furlongs in 1:11 4/5 followed by another sharp six furlongs in 1:12 3/5, so he could be back to the horse who won the Del Mar Futurity and finished second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He was all set to run in the Virginia Derby but spiked a fever over the weekend. And Baffert will now send the gutsy Sunland Derby winner GETAWAY CAR who dances every dance and runs hard each time; San Vicente runner-up ROMANESQUE; and the jaw-dropping maiden winner CORNUCOPIAN, who would be a stretch with only one six-furlong sprint. But he has been touted by those in the know as a potential freak. So Baffert has a lot of thinking to do.
Virginia Derby (March 15) – This is a great opportunity for horses considered second tier to find a spot in the Derby field, but hopefully it produces a horse who belongs. It is also a good spot for trainers with multiple Derby horses to keep them separated. Bob Baffert has decided to send GETAWAY CAR here for a shot at back-to-back stakes wins. WinStar Farm will be represented by their runaway maiden winner RAPTURE, with Flavien Prat coming in to ride, and Sam F. Davis winner JOHN HANCOCK, who got a reputation boost when Sam Davis runner-up Owen Almighty came back to win Saturday’s Tampa Bay Derby. But with Prat on Rapture we’ll see if he actually runs. Wayne Lukas will run AMERICAN PROMISE, a well-beaten fifth in the Risen Star. Finally, you have horses stabled at Laurel who for the first time have a nearby race with big points. One such horse is Virginia-bred OMAHA OMAHA, a consistently strong closer, who has back-to-back victories at Delaware and Laurel before finishing second in the Jerome and third in the Withers. Another training at Laurel is last year’s Nashua Stakes winner STUDLYDORIGHT, who hasn’t finished better than fourth in three subsequent stakes.
Louisiana Derby (March 22) – This could be a very wide-open race with Magnitude having made a mess of the 3-year-old division at Fair Grounds. Some of the possible and probable stakes horses are BUILT, CALDERA, VASSIMO, HYPNUS, CHUNK OF GOLD, YINZER, and TIZTASTIC, as well as INSTANT REPLAY, a former high-priced claimer for Brad Cox who was spectacular winning an allowance race at Fair Grounds with first time Lasix. JOHN HANCOCK likely will run here if he scratches from the Virginia Derby. If BABY MAX, a game second in the John Battaglia, doesn’t run back in the Jeff Ruby he will run here. Other longshot possibilities are DAPPER MOON and GOLDEN AFTERNOON. Several of these can emerge as a serious Derby horse with a big effort. Caldera turned in the best losing performance we have seen this year in the Sunland Derby that already stamps him as a legitimate threat who has a bright future, while Vassimo and Chunk of Gold are lesser known horses who are coming off well-beaten, but sneaky-good performances behind Magnitude in the Risen Star and can take a big step forward here. The steady late-closer Tiztastic, who has been running at Oaklawn, could appreciate the long Fair Grounds stretch and added distance. Kenny McPeek still is very high on Hypnus following a troubled trip in the Risen Star, and never count out the impressive Gun Runner Stakes winner Built, who made a bold, but futile move to collar Magnitude at the head of the stretch, but couldn’t keep up with the winner’s freakish performance and just got nailed for second on the wire.
Jeff Ruby Steaks (March 22) – With the new respect this race has gained recently you have to take it seriously, and this year we could have the first three finishers of the John Battaglia Memorial, winner CALIFORNIA BURRITO and the Leonatus Stakes winner BABY MAX who gutted it out down gamely the stretch, and the fast-closing MAXIMUM PROMISE, who Kenny McPeek has nominated to the English Derby. But the horse they have to beat is Godolphin’s POSTER, winner of last fall’s Remsen Stakes who is stabled at Turfway Park and working brilliantly over the synthetic surface for Eoin Harty. Also stabled at Turfway is the Wesley Ward-trained CLOCK TOWER, winner of the Cecille B. DeMille on grass at Del Mar and a well-beaten fourth to Citizen Bull in the Robert B. Lewis at Santa Anita. Because HE’S NOT JOKING was so impressive winning the Grey Stakes on Woodbine’s synthetic surface last year and has run poorly in his two subsequent stakes on dirt, trainer Josie Carroll might consider going back to synthetic. Whit Beckman has an improving colt in FLYING MOHAWK, who has won two straight on grass and is coming off an impressive allowance score at Fair Grounds. Another promising, but lightly raced grass horse is the Kitten’s Joy winner CHARLIE’S TO BLAME, a son of Blame trained by Peter Eurton.
Florida Derby (March 29) – As of now this looks like a small field with all eyes on Fountain of Youth winner SOVEREIGNTY, our co-No.1-ranked horse, who this time, as we mentioned earlier, will have WinStar’s top Derby hopeful TAPPAN STREET to run down, as he did WinStar’s River Thames in the Fountain of Youth, and once again should get some help from the speedy NEOQUOS, who hung on gamely to finish third. Todd Pletcher has a pair of promising, but lightly raced colts owned or co-owned by Mike Repole, GRANDE and DISRUPTOR, but hasn’t decided yet who he will run. Grande is coming of an impressive allowance win going 1 1/8 miles, while Disruptor was brilliant romping in a seven-furlong maiden race. It is interesting to note that in his allowance win Grande defeated a horse named Jimmy’s Daily, who was coming off a victory over Disruptor. There probably will be a few more, but right now it’s too early to know who. There also is a possibility that Gotham winner FLOOD ZONE could run here instead of the Wood Memorial.
Arkansas Derby (March 29) – Will BARNES run? Will America’s favorite Cinderella horse COAL BATTLE run or try to buck history by going straight to the Derby? Those are the big questions. If Barnes doesn’t run, who will Baffert send instead? As of now we have no idea what the alternatives are for Barnes. Baffert is still in the thought process. After that we have a real mixed bag. Coal Battle would be looking for his fifth consecutive stakes victory. The always dangerous closer SANDMAN will be trying to lose the bridesmaid role and get his first stakes victory. If the aforementioned INSTANT REPLAY doesn’t run in the Louisiana Derby he likely would run here. Other possibilities are ADMIRAL DENNIS, with disastrous starts in both his stakes appearances, PUBLISHER, SPEED KING, who worked a bullet half in :47 flat, possibly INNOVATOR and MONET’S MAGIC. A decision on the once-promising Admiral Dennis will be made after he works this week.
Blue Grass Stakes (April 5) – It’s too early to get a feel for this race, but we do have EAST AVENUE, who has been working super, and BURNHAM SQUARE both looking to bounce back from defeats as the favorite, as well as the Fountain of Youth runner-up RIVER THAMES, and likely a horse or two coming out of the Tampa Bay Derby needing another start, probaably CHANCER McPATRICK if he doesn’t run in the Wood Memorial, or stablemate HILL ROAD, who finished a respectable third in the Tampa Derby despite being a short horse and had a strong gallop-out. Chad Brown said he will separate them and also is considering the Blue Grass for Sunday’s impressive allowance winner PRAETOR, with the Lexington Stakes the other option. As for GRANDE and DISRUPTOR, whoever Todd Pletcher doesn’t run in the Florida Derby likely will run here, with the Wood Memorial also in play.
Wood Memorial (April 5) – This is shaping up as one of my favorite preps with several fascinating horses, such as the highly ranked Withers winner CAPTAIN COOK and the newest star, Gotham winner FLOOD ZONE, unless he goes for the Florida Derby. And don’t get down on Gotham runner-up SAND DEVIL , who just needs to settle off the pace and not get hooked up in these speed duels. He has all the tools and a ton of stamina and has to start using them instead of running like a sprinter. I believe we’ll see a different horse going two turns. And then we have the improving Shug McGaughey-trained STATESMAN coming off two impressive victories at Tampa Bay. He has been visually impressive with a big turn of foot, but has to come off Lasix and face far better competition. We’ll see if Chad Brown runs CHANCER McPATRICK or HILL ROAD here. He is already pointing GARAMOND to the Wood after his solid third in the Gotham off only one career start. And if RIVER THAMES doesn’t run in the Blue Grass he likely will run here.
Santa Anita Derby (April 5) – Last but not least, despite Santa Anita’s depleted 3-year-old population outside the Bob Baffert barn, we have the showdown of the year between JOURNALISM and CITIZEN BULL, with BULLARD and BAEZA hoping two turns will help them sneak in there for some much-needed points. Baffert likely will have one or two others in there who will not compromise Citizen Bull’s chances, whether or not they try to rate him.
UAE Derby (April 5) – There doesn’t look to be any Forever Youngs this year and we have no word yet on any American horses going there. The way the race shapes up right now we have the 1-2 finishers of the Al Bastakiya, GALACTIC STAR and the fast-closing HEART OF HONOR and several possible from Japan, headed by Saudi Derby runner-up SHIN FOREVER. Also from Japan, with Hyacinth Stakes winner Luxor Cafe taking the Derby prep points route, we can expect the third, fourth, and fifth-place finishers in the Hyacinth – DON IN THE MOOD, who has won two races and was beaten a nose by Luxor Café in a maiden race; ADMIRE DAYTONA, a son of Drefong, who had broken his maiden by four lengths; and DRAGON, a son of Mind Your Biscuits, out of a Deep Impact mare, who had broken his maiden by nine lengths.
Racing historian, author, and award-winning retired journalist for the Daily Racing Form and The Blood-Horse, Steve Haskin was inducted into the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame’s Media Roll of Honor in 2016. Known for his racing knowledge and insightful prose, he has been an exclusive contributor to Secretariat.com since 2020.
I really, really like Owen Almighty. The plan to stay on the Derby Trail is not the path I would take with him.
Totally agree.
Rumor is CORNUCOPIAN will run in the Arkansas Derby .
Baffert very happy with his work this morning.
Maybe Steve H will confirm this RUMOR today???
I dont know when the Rankings will be posted, but lets just say it’s a very live rumor, with a few more surprises possible.
Thank you for the update Steve !
Actually, I saw this on another website….the Arkansas Derby was ‘reslisted’ for Cornucopian as a tentative goal for this horse.
The only comments have can gather is that trainers at Oaklawn Park called “C” Baffert’s freak horse coming in from California….and that was before his first race. The connections of that race in Oaklawn….Zero Sugar and Staton Flurry, were estatic after receiving an 89 second place Beyer.
The only other news I can offer is that Cornucopian was scheduled to run a race in Del Mar’s summer meet (probably a four furlong race) but was set back because of other issues. And that this colt, raced ahead of Citizen Bull, in a workout a while back, but cannot confirm.
Mark-interesting stuff, thanks. Especially if Baffert goes ahead with this plan.
Next.
Just read Cornucopian ran the fastest 6f 3 year old maiden race in Oakland History. 6f and MSW doesn’t mean much but u can drea. He worked in pair with Barnes, identical times. Wonder who went easier?
RE: Florida’s “Decoupling” Bills pending (House Bill 105) and (Senate Bill 408).
I’m puzzled why Belinda Stronach is supporting these bills which would have a devasting impact on the horse racing industry in Florida.
Is there anyone out there that can provide an insight on what this “Decoupling” is all about? I don’t get it.
Thanks.
See “Expanded decoupling bill goes to Florida committee hearing” at BloodHorse.
RE: Louisiana Derby
After reviewing Instant Replay’s five career starts, it appears he’s better suited at rating off the pace, rather than dueling for the lead, as he did two races back.
At Churchill, on Nov. 24th, he rated off the pace, and closed impressively, going a mile in 1:36.26, drawing off by 8 3/4 lengths. In his next start, he dueled for the lead, and tired late, to finish 4th. In his last race, at the Fair Grounds, on Feb. 17th, once again Geroux rated IR off the pace, to win going away by 5 open lengths. Instant Replay finished in 1:43.25, for that 1 1/16 race, earning an Equibase Speed figure of 100 in the process.
More than likely, Brad Cox’s other colt in the Louisiana Derby, John Hancock, will be listed as the morning line favorite, but I look for Florent Geroux to rate Instant Replay off the pace and run down the leader approaching the wire. The long Fair Grounds stretch should enhance Instant Replay’s closing style.
That said, I’ll key IR on top, with John Hancock, Yinzer, Caldera and Built underneath in the 2nd, 3rd and 4th slots. That is: 9/ 1,4,5,6/ 1,4,5,6/ 1,4,5,6. ($2.00 super p/w)
Yinzer looked impressive, last out, in his maiden win at the Fair Grounds, and he’s been working lights out for trainer Steve Asmussen. He fired two bullet works leading up to this race, which is the reason I added him in my superfecta wager.
Safe trips to all.
Hi Bill, I wouldn’t sleep on Tiztastic. Asmussen sent him down to the Fairgrounds soon after the Rebel to get a couple works in there. He wants more track and I expect Tiz to run a big race. He should be dead fit.
The late pick-4 at Fair Grounds on Saturday has a couple of heavy favorites in Sierra Leone and Good Cheer. The Louisiana Derby has kind of a wide-open feel to it. The Morning Lines aren’t out yet and I’m having a difficult time figuring which horse will go favored. The 2 for 2 John Hancock? He drew the rail and both wins were at Tampa. Flavien Prat and Brad C will draw attention. Chunk of Gold, Built, and Instant Replay all earned 92 BSFs in their last races. Highest in the field. I can see Built as a lukewarm favorite with Jose Ortiz and blinkers for the first time. But he has been beaten in his last 2 at Fair Grounds. Vassimo is trending upward for Todd Pletcher and Irad Ortiz. Built, Chunk of Gold, and Vassimo are all coming out of what is starting to feel like a very weird race won by Magnitude.
Bottom line: I have no idea which horse goes favored. Best to get a fair price.
Good Cheer has won her first 5 races very easily. Always at low odds. A nickel on the dollar last time. She closed as the favorite in the Oaks Future Wager and as an April foal should keep improving. I was surprised that Kenny McPeek skipped the Virginia Oaks with Gowells Delight to try Good Cheer again after getting thumped last time.
Sierra Leone stands real tall on numbers in the New Orleans Classic. He still has a beautiful rising numbers pattern. But I suspect that he will be coming from far back which could make him vulnerable. On the other hand, it looks like there is plenty of pace to set the table for him. Low odds for sure.
Tommy, I agree that the Louisiana Derby is a wide open race. It could also turn into a stagger-fest, since it’s 1 3/16 miles, not a mile and an eighth. Despite the stoutness in John Hancock’s pedigree (Seattle Slew on the sire line, Northern Dancer on the bottom, plus he’s a half to Kentucky Oaks winner Speech), he strikes me as a miler type. (I would love to be proven wrong, of course.) For less than obvious reasons, I like Vassimo. He’s a Nyquist out of the Pulpit mare Bsharpsonata, winner of a Grade 2 stakes at a mile. He’s yet to break out of the high 80s in Beyer figs, there’s no time like the present to do it.
Chunk of Gold…in my ( and many others) opinion—benefitted from a rail trip, in the Risen Star….inside was dominant that day—Render Judgement had a wide trip, came back and got a nice 2nd. …I thought Hall Of Fame made a nice showing that day—he might prove a toufhcustoner, for Sierra Leone….
BARNES and CORNUCOPIAN had a nice work this morning at SANTA ANITA
6f 1.11:80h
I still like Barnes a lot….
Mark, did they work together? If I remember correctly didn’t Cornucopian actually came out ahead of Citizen Bull in a workout a while back. Can’t confirm though. I noticed on another website that Barnes is listed for both the Arkansas and SA Derbies while the Arkansas Derby has been taken down as a ‘tentative goal’ for Cornucopian.
John, I’m guessing ,Yes. We have to wait for XBTV to release the video
Hi Davids… regarding your reference to Steve’s “In the Shadow of Giants” I did not understand we you said that “nothing comes up” after clicking BH link…
I googled the title and Steve Haskin and it came up in its entirity… the article was written on February 27 2014 with 34 comments including your brilliant one about the “lesser” stars and complimenting the photo of the horses marching under thd Spanish moss…
Hi Nelson, the title comes up on the search through the Blood- Horse but when I click on the link all I get is cs dot Bloodhorse dot com and on other previous columns I get other variations on a similar theme. Crazy.
PS: I even tried it with a VPN- no difference. I’ll try all my other devices when I get home and see what happens. Just using an iPad here today.
Nelson, it’s my security that won’t allow the page to come through. “This connection is not private. This website has an outdated security configuration, which may allow an attacker to steal personal or financial information entered into…
That’s the Blood-Horse website it is describing. You have been advised.
I had the same troubles with google chrome .those messages blocking access to some url’s were very annoying… I had to use other browsers …
Thanks for the help, Nelson. Obviously, there are certain parts of the blood-horse website are more secure than others.
Hopefully, Steve reissues “In the Shadow of Giants” on the Secretariat website I’m sure many would appreciate it’s quality.
I don’t see any change in Steve’s dozen for week 8.
Unless he reinstates Bullard at 11 or 12 spots after his workout today (4f in 48.60) after exactly a month after his previous breeze…
It is not easy to forget Bullard’s 82 2/5 in the Bob Hope Stakes… We need a Gun Runner in the Derby…
Nelson
Keep an eye on Disruptor, by Gun Runner, out of a Speightstown mare. On March 1st, he broke his maiden at GP, going 7 furlongs in 1:22.94, drawing off by 9 1/4 lengths.
He could be headed to the Florida Derby.
He sold for $1.15 million at auction, so you would think there was high expectations from the get-go. I’m sure Mike Repole placed a big wager on him in KD Futures Pool 5.
He opened at 80-1, but I’m certain he didn’t close at those odds.
That reminds me, Pool 5 closed today at 6:00 Eastern, so just out of curiosity, I’ll check the final odds on all the horses listed.
Edit: Nelson, Disruptor closed at 39-1.
Thanks for the reminder Bill… I had forgotten to include Disruptor in my virtual stable after his romp at Gulfstream… I had dismissed him following his disappointing debut… it is nice to see Alydar in his female family!
I would either leave it the same or flip Caldera with American Promise. Would leave Bullard off for now.
What kind of story is likely to emerge from KD 2025?
Since Lasix was disallowed in 2021, no favorite has emerged the victor.
2021 – Essential Quality champion 2YO and undefeated post time favorite – 4th
2022- Epicenter eventual Champion 3YO -2nd
2023 – Angel of Empire -3rd
2024 – Fierceness Champion 2YO and recipient of the highest Pre KD Beyer -15th
All were considered to be deserving pot time favorites.
If this trend continues the like of Journalism and Sovereignty will be features in the story associates with KD 2025.
An intriguing story would undoubtedly be about a disqualified KD winner and the trainer who befitted form its DQ.
.
EDIT
If this trend continues, the likes of Journalism and Sovereignty will not be featured in the story associated with KD 2025.
Essential Quality was the Champion 2 year old and Champion 3 year old. Moreover, Essential Quality is the only horse to win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Stakes and the Belmont Stakes.
Believe it or not, the derby was without a winning post-time favorite from 1980 through 1999.
Epicenter ran a winning effort, there was a pace collapse–its never easy to win in a 20-horse cavalry charge, on dirt….I’m going for a 3-bagger, having picked Mage and Mystik Dan—I love Journalism, I like everything except his price! Usually I play a big wager and a smaller bet, on a second horse—but Mage and Mystik Dan were the only ones I had win money on—and Big J —if all goes well—would be my only gut this year, except for a couple of $5 Futures wagers….I’m “all in”, as they say—all in, on this beautiful bay….
Essential Quality ran an extra 100 yards than Medina Spirit.
You can replace Journalism with Citizen Bull as Journalism is likely not going all out in the SA Derby. Citizen Bull should go off at 5/2 in Kent Derby.
65-1 on River Thames …that’s too good to pass on….I took a small stab…
Does anyone else liken the look of American Promise to that of Charismatic?
The Derby champion had four white socks but their similarities in color and physique are noticeable …
Yes indeed! But I needed to look back to video and photos of Charismatic. Unfortunately, I was reminded that I bet Menifee in the derby. Aarrgghh
Yes Nelson, and also his daddy…. I would not be surprised is Lukas runs him in the Lexington (ala Charismatic). He is a big horse. This horse has a big base/bottom on him and looked like he could have won by more yesterday if the jock had not started his celebration early (Not a fan of jockeys doing that before or after a race). The more I look at that race yesterday the more I like him.
I am with You DTS… The Lexington might be in the mind of the Coach for a final prep for the herculean American Promise… the son of Justify will be taking a lot of betting in the Derby just by his looks…
My Current Top Twelve Derby Prospects, in preferential order:
1) Journalism
2) Sovereignty
3) Citizen Bull
4) Barnes
5) Coal Battle
6) Captain Cook
7) John Hancock
8) American Promise
9) River Thames
10) Disruptor
11) Caldera
12) Grande
Excellent top 6 in your list Bill.
Thanks, Joe.
I know you have a KD Futures wager on Journalism, at big odds.
Needless to say, I’m sure you’re looking forward to the Santa Anita Derby coming up in three weeks.
Best of luck with that Futures bet.
Thanks Bill !
Mine are the following:
1)JOURNALISM
2)Sovereignty
3)Citizen Bull
4)Barnes
5)Chancer McPatrick
6)Captain Cook
7)Coal Battle
8)Burnham Square
9)Poster
10)Sandman
11)Caldera
12)Hypnus
It is notable that there are only four deep closers among the top Derby eligibles so far: Sovereignty, Tiztastic, Hill Road and Chunk of Gold… Chancer McPatrick used to be a closer but with the addition of blinkers he is a stalker now…!
Nice list, Nelson
I see you haven’t given up on Burnham Road. I’m still awaiting a definitive decision on Owen Almighty’s path forward. The last I heard, Bryan Lynch and the owners have yet to decide if he’ll point to the Pat Day Mile, or the Derby.
Owen Almighty has the points to make the Derby starting gate, so if the connections decide to run him in the Derby, I’ll include him somewhere in my top 12.
He looked super impressive in the Tampa Bay Derby, finishing 3 1/2 lengths ahead of Chancer McPatrick. His final sixteenth, in 5.84, is the fastest yet recorded from this year’s crop of 3yr. olds.
Obviously, I’m looking forward to that decision.
Owen Almighty is a very good horse that should go to the Pat Day instead of being subjected to the crushing Derby stampede… I support his trainer Brian Lynch in taking the more conservative route and then try the Preakness.
The son of Speightstown will better off on the long run … and who knows … he could grow enough to be successful at 10 furlongs at the end of the season like his grandsire Bayern did back in 2014 …
Nelson your comments are on point.
Thanks Mike … Now we have to convince Bill … LOL
Will let you do that.
BTW Bill … what is your take about Vassimo’s chaotic run in the Risen Star?
Do you think the blinkers will improve his focus and determination?
The fact that he came on again (from 4th to 7th and back to 4th) could be the reason Pletcher will go with blinkers in the La. Derby.
However, from my perspective, it’s going to take more than adding blinkers for Vassimo to be competitive against the likes of John Hancock, Built, Caldera and Instant Replay, IMO.
But you never know, with Irad in the saddle, anything is possible.
The horse that could pull off the upset is Chunk of Gold, IMO.
I am just recalling what Steve wrote about Irad saying “I go where Vassimo goes” which says a lot a about his confidence in the son of Nyquist…
Anyway, Pletcher is running out of options but he can pull a rabbit out of hat… i.e. Kinbarnds, Noble Indy…
Excellent list, Bill. We agree on the top four, no surprise there. I’m now so undecided about so many horses I have a Top 20 this week.
1 Journalism
2 Sovereignty
3 Citizen Bull
4 Barnes
5 Coal Battle
6 Burnham Square
7 Flood Zone
8 Tappan Street
9 Chancer McPatrick
10 East Avenue (if he springs back to life in the Blue Grass)
11 American Promise
12 River Thames
13 Caldera
14 Madaket Road
15 Sandman
16 Captain Cook (it’s been a long time since January)
17 John Hancock
18 Sand Devil
19 California Burrito
20 Baeza
Thanks for the reply Ms Blacktype
It appears you have all the bases covered with your list. I can’t argue with any of your selections.
Best of luck moving forward.
Good to see Journalism back on the worktab SUN Morning at SA after his impressive win in the San Felipe. He came out of the race well and is primed for yet another strong performance in the SA Derby.
Big bettor here—I put fivers on “all others”, in The Oaks…..Barnes (15-1)and Sandman (18-1)…Barnes at 15-1….has improved every start—is over 1200 lbs,and Bob knows how to do this—they all are going to have Journalism to contend with—Umberto—always the life of thejockeys room—can talk up a storm….in several languages!
1:08 1/5 and 1:33 flat—how do you make speed ratings out of that track surface—still, he won by 7 1/4—if Churchill is super fast I guess you cannot leave him off your tickets, because he loved that paved highway, and looked good winning..
Yes Matthew…this highway will be a great test for the track bias they use…BTW I need to commend you for seeing Render Judgement finishing in the money and also on your acute analysis of Getaway Car looking eroded in training…keep it up…
I disagree with both (Mike and Nelson) of your assessments of Getaway Car. First I don’t think if Baffert had worked him “faster” in his previous 2 works it would have made any difference in yesterday’s outcome. This horse is fast but has show previous distance limitations. He did not get embarrassed yesterday in that race by any means he was leading or 2nd for 4/5’s of the race and just got passed up for 3rd. Also he was a last minute replacement for Gaming in this race. He was fit for this race but he cannot carry his speed for a distance of more than a mile to a mile and a 1/16th. He to me is not a KD horse unless Baffert can make a last to first race horse like Sovereignty.
GC will win races,however not at 10f. Suspected for awhile to be the case. Remember some boasted here and another site BB has at least four, five horses for Derby. Not going to work out. Talk is cheap.
Getaway Car is not a Derby horse … he is a sprinter/miler indeed. However, I also believe that his tough battle with Caldera at Sunland Park left him completely drained … otherwise I can not explain how Render Judgment (proven to have been way slower than GC) was always controling the californian at striking distance.
I never expected Getaway Car to be already dead at the 5.5 furlong post…
Anyway, we all might be rigth about what happened to the 4/5 favorite in the Virginia Derby…
I’m not saying the work times mattered….I’m saying a :50 2/5 followed by a 3 furlong work—are not what Bob usually does—suggesting Hetaway Car might have had a lot taken out of him, at Sunland….Bob usually works them faster…and typically when he works them FIVE furlongs…they go SIX furlongs, an extra furlong AFTER the finish—I stayed away from the horse, yesterday—got lucky with a win/place wafer on Tender Judgement—and it WAS luck, he barely lasted, for 2nd….
(Poor eyesight, pardon the misspelling!) ..
With the poor performance of Getaway Car yesterday, do we downgrade Caldera? I say: No. Because I believe that Caldera would have won that race in New Mexico rather easily if not caught wide on the turns. Though I would be more interested in him for the Derby Tri & Super that the Derby Exacta.
I wouldn’t downgrade Caldera because Getaway Car floundered… Getaway had two very unlikely Bob B works, he must’ve been gassed, from that Sunland race—where Caldera ran better…
Agreed!
You are right Tommy… Caldera should have won the Sunland Derby with only one yard of ground saving in the last turn … besides, Caldera was comming off a maiden win against a Stakes veteran in the West … the bobbling lottery could have been avoided…!
Caldera with Tyler Gaffalione in the irons for Lukas will be puhsing John Hancock to his limits in the Louisiana Derby especially if the track becomes super fast…
I think Caldera is interesting. He should have gotten a lot out of the Sunland, including the idea that he has to make his lead change and keep running. When Getaway Car made his gutsy move after being passed, Caldera looked like it almost surprised the momentum out of him. Then he got it together to run with GC down to the wire. He doesn’t know he missed the head bob, so the Sunland was not a demeaning loss – and for his brain, almost as good as a win. He’s another big, rangy colt in this crop who could come together and be good enough at the right time.
My take on best value at this moment in the KDFW (ML/current):
#7 Captain Cook (30/55)
#28 Poster (80/99)
#31 River Thames (30/79)
#37 Tappan Street (40/55)
RE: Louisiana Derby
Brad Cox could hit the exacta with John Hancock and Instant Replay, with John Hancock as the likely winner. Caldera and Built deserve respect in this race as well, and should finish somewhere in the superfecta, IMO.
Box those four in a superfecta wager might be the way to go in referenced race.
1,5,6,9 ($2.00 super box)
Bill, I would suggest adding Tiztastic to that box of 4. He may not win, but he is very consistent in his efforts. Also, he drew gate 3. I have a hunch that he will be second at worst.
Thanks for the reply, William D
In eight starts, Tiztastic has won two races, both on turf. His jockey, Joel Rosario is unpredictable, good at times, and bad at times.
I’ll stick with the four colts that I mentioned for my superfecta boxed wager, (John Hancock, Instant Replay, Built and Caldera).
Good luck with Tiztastic.
I am expecting Hypnus to improve enough to be in the exotics in the Louisiana Derby the same way McPeek made Render Judgment rebound yesterday at Colonial …
My planned Super wheels 1-John Hancock for 1st and 2nd with 5-Caldera, 6-Built, 7-Vassimo, 10-Hypnus
Hope all the horses reach the race in good order…
It will be interesting to see what Steve does with the results of this race. I had a suspicion that American Promise was sitting on a peak performance, and he delivered. Interestingly, 2nd and third place finishers Render Judgment (29) and Omaha Omaha (26)now have more Derby points than such highly regarded colts as Barnes (18.75) Eastern Avenue (10) and Captain Cook (20). Ironically, Getaway Car picked up a few more points by finishing fourth and stands at 46. Just being in the race is no guarantee of winning, but you have to get in first. Still plenty of racing to come, of course.
So, how did Lukas get AP to reverse form so quickly?
Class drop, like the winner.
Meant “like the second horse.”
His fifth in the Risen Star wasn’t as bad as it looked and his figs were trending the right way. In terms of Beyers at least, he had the highest (95 for a maiden win) of any of the contestants. And I agree, the field was soft.
Not sure it is a reversal of form but could be a fitness and maturity thing with him. He is a big (physically) horse. He was running 3rd in the stretch and running close to the pace in the Risen Star finished 5th but not very far behind for 2nd (nobody was going to deny Magnitude that day ) and before that in the Southwest Stakes was running 2nd in the stretch but tired and shortened stride near the end of that race. Speedking by far the best that day. For some reason I suspect Lukas will try and get another race into him before the Derby. I think it will be the Lexington.
Getaway Car ( GC ) looked like a shetland pony next to American Promise. American Promise might be something…. He is by Justify. Took him 6 races before he broke his maiden then lost to both Speed King and Magnitude when they both ran monster races. Maybe he is figuring it out or is he a flash in the pan ?!?!?!
Like I said before Baffert should be pointing GC for Pat Day mile. He will be getting a 50 day rest between now and then should be enough time to recoup. Saw one of the YOUTUBE pundits say that at COLON. Dwns. only 15% of the frontrunners win at 1 1/8 mile one turn race. Was true for GC but really couldn’t say that for AP who was there for every step of the way …. Take it for what its worth BTW did not bet this race.
Downthestretch, one of my first thoughts looking at American Promise was, “wow, that sure is a big, old-school looking D Wayne horse.”
My thoughts exactly…. just like his daddy with big hind quarters. Wonder if Lukas will stick with this jockey for the Derby.?
He seems to be supporting some of the younger riders, but I would like to see a more seasoned jockey on AP. I think American Promise might be nice! Long strides in the stretch.
I agree with your comment about disliking jockey celebrations in the stretch, too. If they want to point to the horse to acknowledge his effort or something after the wire, great. Flailing about and not riding would get a jock taken off of my horse. Too much risk!
As expected, speed was king again in the Virginia Derby and a new track record for the 1 1/8 mile was established by the winner American Promise (Justify-Tapella by Tapit) for D. Way Lukas.
The race was run in 23.12 45.20 1:08.39 1:33.02 finishing in 1:46.41 (NTR).
2nd Render Judgement
3rd Omaha Omaha
4th Getaway Car
prompted very nice pay outs:
1$ Trifecta $700 and the 1$ Super $1430
Getaway Car looked like a very tired horse… needs a break!
A strong pace in the Derby is already ensured …
That’s a good thing, Nelson. And due to the results, I promoted the top three from my “just in case” list to my “contenders” list. Derby hope springs eternal in March.
Just was not big on Getaway Car winning this race.
Congratulations to American Promose and D Wayne Lucas and Omaha Omaha for 3rd. He may not be Derby material but did think we will see him later in the year.
More later if the wind does not blow me away. Few more things to do to prepare for potential severe weather in the overnight hours.
Prayers for the communities that have been hit by this monster storm.
Our farm manager (and cousin) in Missouri reports the worst of the storm missed them. I heard 21 people elsewhere in the state died (!) Stay safe!
Oklahoma got worse. Fires and wind. They probably needed more Bibles in the schools? 😉
What the _____ ?
Stay safe, Lynda! I absolutely hate when these things arrive at night.
Ms Blacktype, I am so glad things are OK at your place!
I saw that Purina’s headquarters sustained major damage in St Louis, but the staff and animals are all accounted for and safe. There are so many photos of shredded trees wrapped in metal.
I will be driving to an all-day training first thing in the morning, as the storm arrives in SC. Hoping that it will lose punch as things cool overnight. Tornado (and straight line) strength winds terrify me.
I hope so too, Katy. Don’t take any unnecessary chances.
Nelson, it’s interesting that this big exacta came from the only two horses dropping in class from the last race. American Promise’s final furlong was borderline: 13 2/5 sec. What does DWL do with a colt that has raced once a month since July? I can’t imagine he would give AP 7 weeks without a race.
Good observation Tony…I would not be surprised if AP runs an Allowance well located in April…or any other Stakes…interesting to see old school ways in this case…
Tony and Nelson good views. AP might just be coming into his own Mentally and Physically. Agree that another race before the Derby is in his future.
D. Wayne’s going back to the Show! American Promise shows his actual promise.
Yes, Ms Blacktype, I was hoping American Promise would do it for DWL. The racing gods are with us.
It is amazing how far has the “Quarter Horse” speed has gone in the Thoroughbred world…LOL
Put me in Coach, I’m ready to play. Dominating performance. You get him will All Others currently at 12-1 in the future wager.
I’d wait for day of race odds, Justin. They will be longer. That said, anything can happen, and most likely will.
Those two works of Getaway Car—:50 2/5 and a 3 fur work—very “un-Bon-like”……
Matthew, have you noted that the three colts – Getaway Car, Gaming, Madaket Road – that Bob Baffert has sent East have lacked the Baffert punch to the wire.
I have….I wonder if that’s why Barnes is currently 15-1 on the Futures—a nice price, for a colt that has improved each start….
Matthew, we’ve sent Bob Baffert reverse the form/placings of runners in major races but Barnes doesn’t convince me that he’s going to better Journalism at 9f or beyond.
Nonetheless, 15 – 1 is a gift on Barnes and, should he win the Derby, you can take the laurels as being a genius. Ha ha
Seen not sent. I should check the posts before I send them, the A1 wants it say in everything. Lol.
Flood Zone winning the Gotham was a handicapping hit for Steve who kindly shared the fact that his ThoroGraph number had him on top of the competition. BTW this TG evaluation turned to be the most accurate among other popular speed figures (i.e. Brisnet and Equibase).
That very afternoon there were three other mile races at Aqueduct; two Stakes (Stymie for old horses and Busher) and one Allowance for older horses. Flood Zone’s time (1:39 3/5) over the super heavy track was the faster of all…
It is the general perception that most Florida bred horses are normally overcharged with early speed. Also, Frosted has been labelled as a sire of sprinters and milers as he himself was a brilliant miler (remembering his 1:32 3/5 in the Metropolitan). We tend to forget that Frosted was the runner up in the historic Belmont Stakes of American Pharoah… being a son of Tapit and maternal grandson of Deputy Minister should at least in theory provide a latent staying power …
But what grabbed my attention was the maternal family of Flood Zone. His broodmare sire, Curlin, does not need any introduction.
Flood Zone’s second dam, Montera, dam of Stakes winners Sue’s Good News and Easyfromthegitgo, is by the great Easy Goer out of Mochila by In Reality.
Mochila is half sister to Cozenne and is the third dam of Godolphin globetrotter and 4.4 million earner, Hawbill, and Free Drop Billy.
In Reality appears in the paternal side of American Pharoah and Always Dreaming; and is a maternal ancestor of Unbridled (sire of Gridnstone), Real Quiet, Smarty Jones, Orb, Authentic, Justify and Mandaloun.
So, ten Derby winners are related to In Reality (within their first 5 generations), in the kingdom of Mr. Prospector and Norther Dancer this tally is rather decent.
Perhaps Flood Zone’s good dosage of stamina and class in his overall pedigree will make him stay at longer distances… The Wood Memorial will answer the question about the quality of the Derby hopefuls taking the New York avenue!
Thanks Nelson, I like the pedigree and the majority of Curlin’s better performers have A. P. Indy line broodmares. Class on class.
Has Brad Cox changed his mind with Flood Zone? Flood Zone was supposed to be heading for the UAE Derby. I hope you’re right.
You are right Davids … I just forgot that Cox is still pointing Flood Zone to the UAE Derby … still, a good way to get the points … it makes sense as his new owner Wathan Stables is Qatari… after what Pandgate did in the dessert one can be optimistic about the chances of Flood Zone and Cyclone State against Heart of Honor, Golden Vekoma and the Japanse Shin Forever…
Nelson, I was so hoping you were right. The heart sunk when I read that Flood Zone was being sent to the UAE Derby. I guess he has a chance but if he fails will they still send him to the Kentucky Derby. Unfortunately, probably yes.
Davids and Nelson: Have you noticed that Citizen Bull and Barnes HAVE that punch to the wire?! LOL. They are good ‘uns BB doesn’t need five.
Yes, Ms Blacktype. Ha ha but have you noticed the three colts that Bob Baffert has sent East so far haven’t performed as expected. Just odd.
Nonetheless, you’re right Bob Baffert only needs the one runner.
Perhaps our expectations of the 3 that came east were a little overdone…i certainly expected more…of the 3 i think madaket road ran best and could be a legit pace factor….funy thing about bb horses …they dont seem to “rebreak” at the 8th pole anymore…
Dominic, each year by Dec. some already are predicting horse from that barn is already a lock for winning Derby. Becomes very old.
I tend to agree with you Dominic on all your assumptions. Madaket Road, I believe, can improve but I would like to see him sit just off the pace. I’d send him to the Wood Memorial.
You hope Ms. Blacktype.
Great post, Nelson. All that In Reality blood — I KNEW there was a reason I liked him (As a preteen, I wanted him to beat Damascus in the Preakness. Such a wonderful horse, born in an out of this world crop). I hope he wins the UAE Derby and survives to run the first Saturday in May.
Thanks Ms Blacktype…
I am sure there will be more In Reality beyond the 5th generations on some other Derby winners .. i.e. Mystik Dan got Relaunch in his 5th generation … And Tapit and Tiznow are good agents for In Reality who in turn is the only big carrier of Man O’War blood…
This year you see In Reality in Caldera, East Avenue, the exhausted Getaway Car, Rodriguez, Tiztastic, Luxor Cafe, Sandman, Yinzer, and California Burrito …
Nelson, I’ve always loved In Reality as his daddy, Intentionally, was the first thoroughbred that I became attached to when first introduced to the sport as a teenager in the 50’s. Glad to hear that this bloodline is well represented in many of this year’s Derby contenders.
Happy to bring fond memories of the “Black Bullet” Dewey…
Dewey, have you read Steve’s masterwork “In the Shadow of Giants” – Hangin’ with Haskin in “The Blood-Horse”? Unfortunately, you can’t get it up on their website anymore. It comes up but when you click on it nothing follows.
Anyway, there is a wonderful picture above the article of Dr. Fager leading In Reality and another group of young horses off to training under giant trees with Spanish moss hanging down.
The photo is so highly emotionally charged it takes your breath away, you stare and stare, thinking back of Dr. Fager and In Reality when they were nobodies before making immortal imprints on racing history.
I hope Steve brings the article here with the photo attached, I’ve gone back and read the article so many times on the website but now l’ll have to find it in my old “The Blood-Horse” collection stored away.
Not sure if I’ve read that article, Davids. I attempted to download it from Blood-Horse, but, was referred to Google and got the title to appear but wasn’t able to open it. Sigh! I do hope that Steve resurrects this piece as I would very much like to read it and view the photo.
Dewey, I had the same problem trying to download “In the Shadow of Giants” and, while chatting with Nelson on the same problem, we worked it out that the security on your computer picks up that where The Blood-Horse website is storing that file is not secure.
Thanks for pointing this out, Nelson. I should do a look for Damascus and Dr. Fager in Derby pedigrees. I’m sure there is some Damascus; probably not much chance of the Doctor. He died way too young.
Since 1970 Dr. Fager appears in the families of Unbridled/Grindstone, Real Quite (x2), Orb and Nyquist.
And Damascus in War Emblem, Big Brown (x2), Orb, Justify and Mage…
The Dr. is also in Bernardini who is in a bunch of contenders this year.
Render Judgement is currently 25-1 …..youza!..
“All Others” in the Oaks Futures ir currently 15-1—that looked good to me, as this crop. so far has not looked very strong to me….
In sense that people will be lining up to bet against Good Cheer.
She will be going for her sixth straight win next Saturday. But more importantly, she already has three wins at Churchill. Mixed feelings.
All Others rarely works in the Oaks pool. It’s had much success over the years over or under in the Derby pool however. Good Cheer is likely better than the figures indicate. Cox does a good job pacing his fillies. I like the current pool odds on Tenma. If that one dominates the SA Oaks then will be one of the chalks in Kentucky. I won’t underestimate Chad Brown and also threw a few bucks on Ballerina.
Ten Horses for next Saturday’s Louisiana Derby and a full field of 12 for the Jeff Ruby Steaks Stakes.
Big fields at both Fair Grounds and Turfway.
Looks like a terrific day of racing.
Hall of Fame and Sierra Leone. A couple of expensive race horses.
Thanks for the heads up Tommy … I was keen to see those key cards early on …
Hall Of Fame has developed into a good horse..
RE: Viriginia Derby
$1.00 superfecta p/w, Key Getaway Car and Rapture on top, in the first two slots, with ALL underneath in the 3rd and 4th slots. 6,7/ 6,7/ ALL/ All, (cost, $40.00)
Flip that over, using ALL/ All/ 6,7/ 6,7 (same cost)
Safe trips to ALL.
Very sensible formula as usual Bill…
I intend to go with 6-Getaway Car on top with 7- Rapture, 3-American Promise, 8-Authentic Gallop and 4-Omaha Omaha for a $24-Superfecta…
Good luck in all your bets Bill…
And of course may all horses and jockeys stay safe …!
Thanks for the reply, Nelson
Good luck to you as well.
Currently, my top Derby prospect is Journalism, he checks the most boxes, IMO.
I haven’t given up on River Thames and looking forward to his next start, more than likely the Blue Grass.
The more I watch Journalism’s three wins the more I get convinced he is the “real deal” … I hope he remains healthy through the whole Triple Crown battles…
I’ll be very surprised if anyone beats Getaway Car this afternoon.
I’m surprised.
He’s toast! Another over hyped horse from that barn.
As far as the Derby goes, I’m afraid that’s true. I liked the way he kept fighting back in his previous race, but he didn’t look like a ten-furlong horse today. I think he has a future but not in the classics.
Agreed!
…and lo and behold he went off the huge favorite.
Lol.
Enticing longshots in KD Futures Pool 5 (current odds, Saturday 3-15)
Baeza, 99-1 (worked 6 furlongs in 1:10.40, probably headed to the SA Derby)
Built, 88-1 (probably headed to the LA Derby)
River Thames, 73-1 (probably headed to the Blue Grass or Wood Memorial)
Praetor, 68-1 (Blue Grass next?)
Captain Cook, 48-1 (headed to the Wood Memorial.
John Hancock, 32-1 (headed to the Louisiana Derby)
Do we know what “small problem” Keep It Easy suffered and what is his future concerning the Derby Trail?
They seem reluctant to say. I will ask Terry finley again.
With the scratches of Calling Card, John Hancock and Georgia Magic in the Virginia Derby, Getaway Car has to contend with only 6 rivals who lack the speed of the Californian.
Interesting to see how all the jockeys navigate the one-turn 1 1/18 mile race.
After seeing what Book’em Danno did yesterday I would dare to say that the winner will clock a time close or faster than the track record (1:47. 36) … I will be watching the novelty with utmost attention …
Colonial Downs track is also playing super fast today… the last two MSW races for 3-year-olds were won by Lion of Justice (Into Mischief- Ever So Clever by Medaglia d’Oro) in 1:33 4/5 for the mile, and Verifire (Authentic-Ruby Trust by Smart Strike) in a superb 1:08 flat for the 6 furlongs….both speedsters were piloted by Flavien Prat for Brad Cox…
To those of you in the path of this severe weather system, please be safe.
For us the peak danger time is roughly 3 AM to 5 AM Sunday morning.
You too, Lynda.
Ms B,
As of 3:00 PM, Atlanta and Atlanta Metro is at the highest threat level, 5, for tornadoes.
The system is huge, biggest area I have ever seen.
A friend who lives in the Metro said she would rather go through a hurricane than what is coming tonight.
So many states are affected, Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia, Alabama, Arkansas, Virginia, Ohio, Missouri.
Will be holding a good thought for you and everyone in the area, Lynda!
Thank you.
Vibe is a heavy favorite, in a Gulfstream maiden race (race eight)….bred by Repole and he kept a piece—cost a bundle…..but I hear Here Comes Francis worked well vs the Gotham winner, and he’s 8-1….
Yes, Matthew. Vibe looks like a nice colt with a big number ($3M). The dam produced Wood winner Outwork. Shug McGaughey has first-timer Activity, whose dam has produced three graded-stakes winners. Activity did miss a workout last month, though.
You might want to take a look at the 5th race at Colonial. Brad Cox sends out firster Lion of Justice, with ML odds of 3-2…and he’s the second choice!
Those two Virginia races really fell apart. The Virginia Oaks down to just six and the Virginia Derby down to just seven. A half of a million bucks doesn’t draw what it used to.
Like I posted last week, is it just me or do most of these Derby preps have fewer runners that usual.
This Virginia Derby looks like easy pickin’s for a decent horse in need of Derby qualifying points.
If any of these Virginia Derby runners actually run in the Derby, I would look at them as “field fillers” and hope that they don’t get in the way of the real contenders.
As always, no offense.
VD
AP🔄GC
Hmm. So Arnold Palmer gave Gary Carter something he didn’t want, or vice versa?
But turning to today’s derby prep, I can’t get past Getaway Car for the win. Some horse has to come in second, so I might go with Studlydoright. Studly is coming back in 3 weeks after a 7-week layoff. The comeback was on synthetic.
James McDonald wins the Group 1, Coolmore Classic, on superstar 3 year old filly, Lady Shenandoah, trained by Chris Waller. She beats the older mares!!
Congratulations!
Love her name of course!
“Shenandoah” is derived from the Algonquin “schind-han-do-wi.”
Translates to Beautiful Daughter of the Stars or Shining River.
Runs almost the entire length of the valley between the Appalachian and Blue Ridge Mountains.
Thanks for that, Lynda. Sounds perfect for the filly as well.
You are welcome Davids.
You can take the girl out of the mountains but you cannot take the mountains of the girl.
Virginia will always and forever be home.
If you are ever in the US again try to take a trip on the Skyline Drive and the Blue Ridge Parkway and travel from Roanoke to Warrenton up the Shenandoah Valley.
Lynda
That is God’s Country! Almost moved there a few years ago then I became the proud Papa of my little Girlie Amelia . I can’t move away from her . So I am stuck in Connecticut. Going for a visit hopefully this fall .
Chris
Thanks Lynda, I have taken a note. So much history in that area.
The last three Derby winners (Rich Strike, Mage, and Mystik Dan) were long shots emerging from barns smaller than the mega racing operations of the top 10 trainers of the last decade. Reed, Delgado and McPeek are very capable trainers, as any Derby winner should be, but they were not deemed as “Derby regulars”.
You always expect the big wigs like Brad Cox, Chad Brown, Robert Baffert, Todd Pletcher, Steven Asmussen, and even Bill Mott to be consistently represented in the Derby. However, qualifying is way easier than winning the Roses.
Statistics suggest that eight (8) of the top 20 trainers (by earnings) of Last year will have runners in the Kentucky Derby this year. In fact, you can see that the top 6 trainers of 2024 got as many as 15 eligible horses for the Derby. Also, Baffert (9th) got 6 Derby hopefuls, Bill Mott (11th) got the powerful Sovereignty, Brendan Walsh (14th) is still counting on East Avenue and also has the newcomer Gosger. Finally, Linda Rice (17th) is priming Sand Devil to be a player in the Wood Memorial. So, it is again likely to get the magic 8 (top trainers) ready to smell the Roses in 2025.
Journalism with his tag price ($825K) and his superior quality is far from being an underdog but his top notch trainer Michael McCarthy, who has produced eleven Grade One winners including Preakness victor Rombauer, only debuted in the Derby last year after being coaxed by the owners to do it… This time is all different for the up-and-coming trainer.
If Journalism exits the Santa Anita Derby in good order the son of Curlin will be the favorite in the Derby and if he were to wear the Garland of Roses he also be the favorite to be the third Triple Crown champion of the Century.
Steve has shared the uplifting story of Coal Battle’s trainer, Lonnie Briley, making them the most loved underdogs in this Derby trail.
Flood Zone would have been another beloved little guy had he not been moved to the powerful barn of Brad Cox.
Built (Wayne Catalano), Burnham Square (Ian Wilkes), and Captain Cook (Rick Dutrow in renaissance mode) are also respectable hopefuls attempting to keep the streak of Derby long shots alive.
The Derby funnel is narrowing but the number of talented 3-year-olds this year is the greatest since 2007…
Are you suggesting that a trainer other than BB could possibly win horseracing’s Triple Crown? BB’s American Pharoah and Justify are the only Triple Crown winners in the last 47 years. BB won those two Triple Crowns just 3 years apart.
If you are suggesting that it would be quite an achievement.
Hi Nelson, I’m all for the little guy and the ‘little horses’ winning the Kentucky Derby, then reading Steve Haskin painting the picture in his words.
With respect to the best crops of three year old talent it is best judged after the evidence has been provided.
Sorry Nelson, I’m with David about this. I agree that 2007 was a strong year, but I thought 2015 (American Pharoah, Dortmund, Frosted, Keen Ice, Honor Code) was better — and more recent.
Ms Blacktype, I meant to write the same. I thought the 2015 was stronger as well.
Nice post Nelson. Thank you.
Thanks Lynda… From my stats regarding the strengths of the horses suppossed to be the “weaker links” at this stage of the game I concluded that the overall quality of the crop so far is one of the best in some time …
Did you notice that #9 in the KDFW, Chunk of Gold trained by Ethan West, was a $2,500 yearling purchase?
Thanks for the reminder Tony D… I knew I was missing another nice “outsider” …
Imagine if Chunk of Gold goes on to win a Graded Stakes down the road… it will be another cry about sending his sire Perservationist to South Korea… The sire son of Arch (Suburban and Woodward victor for James Jerkens) produced a decent first crop on turf and dirt …
That would be something, Nelson. But those big longshots that finish in the money in a big stakes never seem to do well again at the level. CoG just ran the race of his life, where all the stars were aligned.
Fair point …
For those interested, this Saturday at Rosehill they are running the last 2 preps for the 5 million Golden Slipper Stakes for 2 year olds which will be run next Saturday.
Lynda, you will be particular interested in the Pago Pago Stakes for colts and geldings as there are 2 Wootton Bassett runners in the field. West of Swindon and Stat Visit. Pago Pago won the Golden Slipper in 1962 and was bought by Claiborne Farm. Pago Pago never raced in the US but stood at Claiborne from 1965 – 1979.
For the fillies, there is the Magic Night Stakes, no Wootton Bassetts here but there is a Frankal filly, Enviable, but this will be tough there are a host of Australian sires who specialise on siring speedy, precocious 2 year olds among others.
Besides the Slipper preps there are a handful of other Stakes races headed by the Group 1 Coolmore Classic where I’m hoping the smart Siyouni mare, Amelia’s Jewel, lands the prize. For a change it’s hot and sunny in Sydney so expect a fast track.
In Melbourne at Caulfield there are a handful of stakes races to follow. Literally no rain here for over a month but the Caulfied surface is always maintained immaculately. The 500,000 Platinum Guineas and 500,000 Peter Young Stakes are the highlights her.
Melbourne is also hosting the first Formula 1 Grand Prix for the year this weekend, broom, broom is in the background all the time. So enjoy the racing this weekend.
Thank you Davids.
Following results on X.
I wish it was all quiet on the South Eastern Front. But with Belinda Stronach in charge, it’s just not that way. I am so glad that the breeders, owners, and horsemen are apposing the decoupling of horse racing in Florida.
First in her new agenda is closing down Gulfstream to horse racing followed by Santa Anita.
Her father wrote a heartfelt editorial, opposing his daughter, who is stabbing Florida Racing in the heart! Not only Racing—Florida BREEDING—which has been #2 on the sport for many decades, Affirmed was bred in Florida, I imagine Precisionist, as well—giants of the sport! Those casinos needed the tracks, in order to exist—and now they dont…and seek more and more profits—by leaving the tracks behind….
Giants indeed. To name a few others….In Reality, Dr. Fager, Unbridled, Fappiano. If it wasn’t for Belinda’s silver spoon, she wouldn’t have crap.
Yes indeed, bigtime talent—IDr Fager was before my time, those who saw him would rave about his talent….Affirmed refused to lise–Precisionist–when he worked would draw a crowd, he never looked like he was going that fast—what a horse…
Susan’s Girl…..
Thanks Robert for your comments.
Thanks Matthew W. I had to address the elephant on the track this year.
Belinda could care less for horse racing, her parents, the interests of the horses, owners, or breeding farms. I hope that something could be done.
One thing that I don’t understand about this “decoupling” kerfuffle in Florida is that having a casino doesn’t appear to have helped the horseracing in Florida. Gulfstream doesn’t offer the huge purses like Oaklawn or even Belmont, when Belmont is in business. In fact, other than their Pegasus Day, I would classify purses at Gulfstream as kind of cheap compared to other tracks.
You have to consider that GP has races for at least 10 months of the year.
Thanks Tony D that is correct.
TommyMcD–True.
STEVE,
Good to see you are recovering nicely from your recent eye surgery. Keep up your great work here. Have a Great Weekend!!!
Thanks very much
Evidently, the word is out on Disruptor. By Gun Runner, out of a Speightstown mare, he broke his maiden at GP, going 7 furlongs in 1:22.94, drawing off by 9 1/4 lengths.
He’s taking a lot of action in KD Futures Pool 5, opening at 80-1 and is currently listed at 9/2. That’s an unbelievable odds swing.
As Steve mentioned in his KOTD segment, Disruptor is headed to the Florida Derby or the Wood Memorial.
BTW, Caldera is taking a lot of action in Pool 5 as well, (listed at #12 on Week 7 rankings.
Bottom line, nothing appeals to me in Pool 5.
Disruptor is a Todd Pletcher trainee that ran second on debut and won his second start on Fountain of Youth Day. I seem to remember that he is another $1million horse.
Looked pretty good in the win. Mike Repole probably got his Future bets in early.
With TP’s record in the Derby, I wouldn’t get too excited. YET!!! Let’s see where he stands on Sunday night. No offense to the Hall of Fame trainer.
Yeah, Ropole probably wagered a couple grand on Disruptor, chump change in his pocketbook. It appears his colt has a bright future moving forward. He’ll be tested for class and stamina in his next outing against winners. We’ll see if he’s a contender or a pretender. Stay tuned.
I have always regarded any wager in the Kentucky Derby Future Pool, as a sucker because of its non-refundable status and extremely high level of risk associated with betting Interest not making the starting gates.
There is a myriad of reasons a ‘Betting Interest’ doesn’t end up a being a starter. Some ae listed below but are by no means the limit.
Connections chose to go in a different direction – Pat Day Mile
Injury requiring long term recovery period.
Points required for qualification not attained – Higher than usual cut amount
Vet Scratch
For the above reasons I vowed never to indulge in the KDFP wagers. But I am ashamed to advised that my weakness as a man superseded my conviction and I started making serious KDFP wager in 2024.
I had a feeling I was painting wings on my dollars and watching them fly away with no return address. The closest I came to cashing in 2024 was TO Password who is usually forwardly placed but was inexplicably closer to last and finished with rush to claim 5th and the $150.000 it paid. But I was left out of pocket
Despite zero returns in 2024. I am back again int 2025 for more punishment. But one has to keep hope alive with positive thinking. Yes! The audacity of hope – being Bold Daring and often Reckless is the creed of gamblers.
Some of the MLs listed in KDFP #5 have to be considered major overlays. I cannot in good faith not try to cash in on some ‘Betting Interest’ reflecting stupendous MLs
A little nugget for to guide fellow gamblers –
Lasix was allowed/introduced in the Kentucky Derby in 1964. It was disallowed in 2021. Since he RDM has been disallowed the following have been the winners:
2021- Medina Spirit – 12/1
2021 – Mandaloun -26/1
2022 – Rich Strike -80/1
2023 – Mage 15/1
2024 – Mystik Dan 18/1
There hasn’t been a winning favorite since Lasix was disallowed. If neither Sierra Leaon (BCC winner) nor Forever Young (Saudi Cup winner) emerged the winner of the 2024 KD. Why should any gambler assume that what appears to be an open 2025 KD, will yield a winning favorite?
East Avenue -50/1 -$200
Poster – 80/1 – $100
Hill Road – 60/1 – $100
I do not take vacations. Consequently, the above equate to the daily rate for a decent All-inclusive in Jamaica for a 4 day stay.
I DO take vacations. Jamaica us one if many travels. Life too short to exclude travel.
EDIT: is / of
What is the most significant piece of information on the resume of a KD prospects?
Without much research, that would have to be speed figures and sheet numbers. What has become a fixation to these numbers has left very little room for what in many cases is equally or more pertinent information.
There is a piece of information on the resume of KD prospects that is not considered pertinent. This is due to the fact that there is no real way of quantifying its benefit and/or value. That would be out of state shipping.
Starts in several states and on differently configured and constituted racing surfaces, that produces positive results, has to be considered a pertinent piece of information on a thoroughbred’s resume.
Mystik Dan the 2024 KD winner made a start in 2 states and 3 different venues. Sierra Leone (2nd) made a start in 3 states and 3 tracks. Forever Young (3rd) made a start in 3 different countries and 5 different tracks
Mage the 2023 KD winner made all his starts ahead of the KD in Forida and at one venue. Two Phil’s(2nd) made a start in 4 states and 6 tacks. Angel of Empire (3rd) made a start in 4 states and 4 tack.
Triple Crown winer Justify made all his starts in CA. Good Magic(2nd) made a start in 4 states and 5 tracks. Audible (3rd) made a start in 2 states and 3 tracks.
In the above 3 cited KDs. Two of winners had zero out of state shipping experience. But prevailed against opponents that had plenty. Justify won by 21/2L as the best of his generation. Mage won as the best on the day and in the absence of Forte.
The #1 ranked Journalism will make all his starts in CA at 3 different tracks. Will he be at a disadvantage to joint #1 Sovereignty who has made a start in 3 states and at 4 tracks. he will have to be the best on the day or the best in the crop to emerge the winner.
I am of the opinion that shipping which involves different states, that yields positive results on differently configured and constituted racing surfaces. Is a significant piece of information on any thoroughbred’s resume. This is far too often overlooked as a potential tie breaker.
To answer your opening question: I always look first to a horse’s NOL*.
*number of legs”
Love that Tony D! 🤣
The distance for the Virginia Derby is one mile and an eighth, one turn.
As I see it this is an opportunity for one of the colts to win, receive 50 points which will guarantee a gate in the Derby and for the 2nd place colt to win points to add to existing points that might earn the colt a gate in the Derby after defections.
It seems that some are treating this race like a red haired step child.
The purse is 500,000 and the tickets are sold out.
There are a lot of racing fans in Virginia and the Colonial Downs meet has been successful in recent years.
It was a turf race until this year. The CD-owned track is gifted a Kentucky Derby prep with points awarded in the same numbers as the San Felipe and the Fountain of Youth (as well as several other long-running derby preps). Yes, the Va Derby was sold out: 8,000+.
TD,
CD was the subject of serve criticism when it made the Jeff Ruby at its Turfway owned racetrack, a 100 points KD prep.
The criticism has gone silent with the Jeff Ruby being the final Prep for 2022 KD winner Rich Strike and 2023 KD 2nd place finisher Two Phil’s.
Ther UAE Derby has been long criticize for being a 100 points prep. This due to the fact that no winner of the prep has hit the board in the KD. best finish before 2024 was 5th.
Forever Young’s narrow 3rd place finish might have put an end to the criticism.
The big question is. Which UAE Derby winner before Forever Young had a realistic chance of winning the KD?
Mendelssohn won the USE Deby by a record 18L in a NSR. He emerged as the 3rdd choice in the wagering in the KD at post time. He finished 73L last racing with Lasix a RMD that was not in his system when he won the UAE Derby by 18L.
Thunder Snow was another good UAE Derby winner regarded as good prospect to win the KD. He was administered Lasix and behaved like a bucking bronco after the gates opened.
CP, I’m stunned that you would compare the JRS stakes to the new Virginia Derby. The former has a long history of being a Derby prep at Turfway Park. It has undergone several name changes (i.e., Spiral, Jim Beam, Lane’s End), but the race has produced many notable runners, such as Broad Brush, Summer Squall, Hansel, Lil E. Tee, Prairie Bayou, Serena’s Song, Perfect Drift, Hard Spun, Animal Kingdom, etc. And those are just the WINNERS of the Turfway race.
I agree with you Lynda. For whatever reason, and perhaps it’s just my take on it, there seems some odd decisions being made to get the points, or, conversely, miss out on the needed points to get in the Derby this year.
Funny thing too, I thought it still was a turf race for a while because the image shown on the Kentucky Derby website of Colonial Downs is a turf course and, moreover, I wanted a turf runner to get in the Derby like they around 200 B.C.
Even so, I hope the fans have a great day.
LOL, 200 BC.
Those Bucephalus-bred horses were dual-surface phenoms!
Love it, Davids. 😂
Lynda and Katy, I wish you could follow the racing here in Australia, the races are inevitably heart pumping, thrilling finishes and the fans roar!! Even better you see the horses competing against each other frequently- two or three weeks apart or sometimes the next week.
The prize money is the best in the racing world. You see the best racing coverage, free.
Davids, I need to do a better job following racing down there. I did for a time, during Black Caviar’s reign. I really liked the race callers in Australia!
Katy, I’m not sure if you can but try to log in to 7+ app or their website 7plus dot com dot au
They show all the Melbourne and Sydney races every Saturday here. Sunday racing in Australia is only for small country town racing. They call it bush racing here.
The coverage on 7plus is premium and it’s free to join. Hope it works for you.
Lynda, I agree. I would like to see this race succeed for a few reasons.
It is unique in the timing, for the trainers with horses who need a race vs. more training.
It puts a marquee event at a nice venue with fans who want to support it. To my mind, excitement and enthusiasm from more fans is a good thing for racing. If Gulfstream is going to die in the next 5 years, with Santa Anita to follow, there won’t be enough points races. Might as well get something established elsewhere that could earn a graded rating after a few editions.
On the flip side, I really do think they should have made it its own thing and given it a different name, while keeping the Virginia Derby a turf event, as before.
Steve, we are somewhat in a liminal period on the road to the Kentucky Derby at present. We know which runners are good at a mile and a bit but are merely guessing which runners are going to improve over further ground.
Pedigree is the crystal ball by which many seek to find the answer on the above question. However, with US proclivity to breed speed to speed over the past 50 years or so where stamina lays dormant is a guessing game really. Will a Bernardini or Tapit broodmare provide that lost virtue? Many hope so.
I really enjoyed swatting over your column this week, will they race here or will they race there? Some decisions the connections have decided upon seem to make a hard task even harder on a young horse. If they miss out then they only have themselves to blame. It’s an odd year.
Here in Australia, it’s the final prep races for the Golden Slipper Stakes to be run next Saturday. Yes, they still manage to race thoroughbreds every fortnight or even a week apart from their last race.
The Golden Slipper Stakes is the first stage of the Triple Crown races for 2 year olds run in Sydney and worth 5 million.
Thanks again, Steve, you haven’t missed a beat all week the surgery was no doubt a great success. Good news.
East Avenue the former #1 ranked prospect is listed as a Betting Interest with a 50/1 ML in the KDFP #4. I guess that’s what two poor performances can result in.
Can East Avenue be trusted?
He had a horrendous start in the BCJ. But that was not enough of a setback for his poor performance. When a classy horse is beset by adversities. Its class trip in and it is able to sufficiently recover and deliver a performance that suggests, if not for misfortune it would have been the victor.
East Avenue did not deliver a performance consistent with that of a classy horse. He was only able to finish ahead of one of his 10 opponents and by a mare 1 1/2L. He gradual weaken and finished like an empty vessel. What inhibited him from passing opponents not as well regarded? Depleted energy!
The Europe based invader Hill Road had more challenges to overcome than East Avenue. He closed from 10th whilst passing 7 opponents enroute to 3rd. He showed the class that was absent form East Avenue.
When a horse is training well and giving all the indications that it will deliver a positive performance and shows up and flop. There is no guarantee that it will not flop again.
after likewise training well.
East Avenue’s poor performances could have been as a result of venue and surface. It
appears he didn’t relish the venue and surfaces at either Delmar or FG. His pedigree has a strong turf presence.
When a talented horse weakens rapidly on a particular dirt surface. It is a clear indication the surface has depleted its energy resources. To the impacted horse. It’s like moving its 800 -1000lbs body in quicksand. It will not take long for energy resource to be depleted.
Has there ever been a KD winner who was a last out winner of a G1 Stake and fancied in the BCJ, only to flopped and also flopped in its subsequent race? That would be yes!
Sea Hero broke his maiden won turf. He won the G1 Champagne ahead of the BCJ. He was made the second choice ($2.40) behind Gilded Time ($2.00). He finished a badly beaten 7th by 8 1/4L on the speed favoring surface at GP. In his subsequent start he finished 9 of 10. That was the 2nd of three consecutive starts at GP that all resulted in defeats. It wouldn’t be a stretch to conclude he hated GP. He was also defeated in two additional starts before the KD which he won at 12/1.
East Avenue should get the requisite additional points in the Blue Grass to make the KD cut. His best performance was delivered on the Keeneland surface. The surface at CD which is known to be friendly to horses with turf influence. The CD surface could be like Heaven for East Avenue.
Given all the above. I will have no alternative but to wager two Franklins and hope my assessment of the reason for his performed is correct. And he should the turf friendly surface at CD.
it’s not handicapping but rather hoping. Yes! Th audacity of hope.
This is being addressed in the next Knocking on the Door
Steve, I’m so glad to see that you seem to be on your way to full recovery from the cataract surgery. We treasure you and are relieved that everything went well.
This week’s column is the best of this year’s Derby Rankings. You give us a good picture of who among the contenders have the best chance of not only making it to the starting gate but also what potential they have to be in the picture at the finish. I’ll be referring back to this week when I make a couple of future bets this weekend.
Further, I must thank you for all the research you did to comprise the possible runners in the remaining major preps. Good stuff.
I was hoping to see John Hancock run in the Virginia Derby, but then he was scratched by Brad Cox in favor of running in the Louisiana Derby. Actually, I think I like this move as it will be a better test of John Hancock’s ability to get the distance as the Louisiana Derby is 1 3/16 mi. According to Brad Cox, the spacing of six weeks to the Derby is ideal for JH. We know he has speed but, the question of whether he has stamina will be answered on the 22nd.
Thank you so much Dewey. That is very kind of you. The only problem with last week is trying to find something to write about this week. Lol
Yes Dewey, Brad Cox gave me “two fat slaps,” that’s a quote from the hilarious movie “My Beautiful Launderette,” this week.
Clever Brad decides on banishing Flood Zone to the UAE Derby instead of waiting for the Wood Memorial then John Hancock is signed up for the Louisiana Derby instead of the Virginia Derby.
Both decisions appear fraught with failure as well as twice as difficult as the previous assignment. Thanks for that, just made my week.
If John Hancock isn’t good enough to finish in the money in a relatively weak La Derby, he shouldn’t be considered as a Ky Derby entrant.
I agree, Tony. That’s the reason they run in these preps to determine their fitness and potential to qualify for the Derby. I’m hoping that John Hancock passes the test, but, if not, then we can accept that he will be a better candidate for the Pat Day Mile.
Yes, Tony, that is the case but the Virginia Derby asks the same question. I’m not the type that prejudges a race for quality, especially when young/inexperienced horses are involved.
Hindsight, makes you look a much smarter lad. Ha ha
Ah, Davids, I love it when you quote those movie lines. That’s a good one. ha, ha.
Brad Cox is giving us “two fat slaps” as a wake up call. I trust Brad Cox and am confident that he has made these decisions after careful consideration. I’m excited with anticipation awaiting John Hancock running on 3/22 and Flood Zone running on 4/5.
Chadwick Boseman, the ‘Black Panther’ actor, during a commencement speech at Howard University said something to the effect that “choosing the harder path will make your victories much sweeter”. I believe that and always enjoy a win more when it’s accomplished against the odds.
Do not despair, Davids. Keep the faith, mon ami.
Thanks Dewey, I expected John Hancock would be scratched from the Virginia Derby because WinStar basically stated at Tampa Bay last Saturday that if John Hancock doesn’t win or come second in the Louisiana Derby he doesn’t deserve to be in the Derby in the first place. Fair enough. They thought the Virginia Derby was a dash too soon.
I just prefer a more gradual increase in distance and, yes, I thought John Hancock had the Virginia Derby.
With Flood Zone, the connections are obviously going for the cash there instead of possibly the Wood Memorial. Fair enough. However, with such an inexperienced horse the ask just seems too big at this stage. Will the connections still line up Flood Zone in the Kentucky Derby if he flops in the UAE Derby? Regrettably, yes, is probably the answer.
Fingers crossed, mon ami, we’re not beaten yet!!
If East Avenue waits for the Bluegrass, he could run into Disruptor and River Thames. Both expensive speed types in the Todd Pletcher barn.
I have been looking forward to seeing East Avenue in the Louisiana Derby on the 22nd.
Brendan Walsh knows best. Or maybe Godolphin know best.
If the Breeder Futurity East Avenue shows up. The Pletcher duo will be no match.
How long ago was that? EA ain’t happening. Been 6 months since he ran a productive race. Trainer should take him off the KD trail and regroup.
Lol.
Journalism ranked #10 on Longines World Rankings, only 3 y/0 on list. White Abarro #3, Locked #5.
Is journalism viewed to be so much better than Sovereignty? My evaluation criterion regarding the talent level of young thoroughbreds must be in need of an overhaul.
I have Journalism as not being able to sustain his gallop in the final furlong of the KD.
Isn’t this the Kentucky Derby rankings? Isn’t Sovereignty ranked 1A? What part of Steve’s observation mentions Journalism is “much better” than Sovereignty?
You are correct. I should specific the foreign community.
Journalism is part of the KY Derby rankings and discussions of observations about potential Derby horses, & I thought this bit of information interesting & not off topic—in fact it flatters Steve’s high opinion of Journalism (as well as Sovereignty). Guess I didn’t know there is a 1A 1B, thought he regards them as equal. Didn’t mean to offend.
SoloSolo, looks like he was commenting on CP’s reply.
Thanks for clarification, Tony D. Sometimes I can’t tell who’s responding to whom!
Forever Young is number one and Romantic Warrior is number two.
I would welcome an opportunity to recover my losses on Admiral Dennis. That opportunity doesn’t seem in the making as the colt isn’t listed amongst the probables/possibles for any of the 100 points preps.
I sincerely hope all is well with the colt. If he has been training forwardly, I further hope his connections haven’t lost faith as would be a live longshot if he makes the KD cut.
Admiral Denn has more tools to win the KD than many of the fancied prospects.
I am likely to be the only one in this forum with this perspective. However, diminished faculties might just be in operation.
2024 – Catching Freedom (7/1) 4th by 1 1/4L
2023 – Angel Of Empie (2/1 Favorite 3rd by 1 1/2L
The Albaugh Family Stable had the post time favorite and the 4th choice in the KD cited above. Their entrants came up short. If the stable’s Admiral Dennis can get in. History has a way of being kind when least expected.
Dreams are always free.
Counter Point, the nominations for the Arkansas Derby aren’t listed yet, but I see that
Admiral Dennis is nominated for both the Louisiana Derby and the Jeff Ruby Stakes.
He had a sharp 4f work at Oaklawn on March 8th in 48.20; 9/64. So, I don’t think the Albaugh family would give up on the Admiral just yet, considering his trouble leaving the starting gate. I’m sure Brad Cox can fix that and give him one more chance to get Derby points.
I also still believe that Admiral Dennis will be worthy of joining the “big dance”. Keep the faith.
Many thanks.
Dewey, I’m hoping they select the Jeff Ruby Steaks for Admiral Dennis. The surface and style of running should help Admiral Dennis.
You missed it. I wemention Admiral Dennis in the Arksnsas Derby with the possibility of the Louisiana Derby depending on how he worked this week. He was one of my 5 Derby horses to watch column back in Novem.ber.
Thanks.
Virginia Derby is a one turn 1 mile 1/8 race—long chute down backstretch. One Turn 1 1/8 mile races are different than two turn.
Do you care to highlight the difference beyond the one and two turns.
If you studied geometry in HS, then you should know the answer to your own question.
I didn’t make it to high school. My education stopped abruptly in primary school.
If one states that due to the configuration of the Colonial Downs Oval. The 9F Virginia Derby will be contested around 1Turn. There is no need to specify that a 1turn 9F is different from a 2Tirn 9F.
I assumed the referenced difference had to be something other than mere number of turns.
When handicapping a race, do you take into consideration if the race is a one or two turn event?
From my Primary School education, two turns is definitely different than one turn.
It’s pretty basic, a two turn race will require more stamina, oomph, than a one turn race.
In a one turn 9f race the horse that has more speed might have an advantage over the horse who has more stamina but less speed.
Conversely, in a two turn 9f race the horse who has more stamina might have an advantage over the horse.
However, some horses have a natural affinity two either way of going…handicapping a race.
Come on Counter, don’t be coy. Your education extends far beyond primary school.
The pp’s presents a 2 turn race.
The diagram is wrong. The dirt track is 10 furlongs. By necessity, the start is on the backstretch chute.
David, I’m all good – I’m excited and nervous, lol. I’ll likely forget all about the UAE Derby, but if Heart wins, I will freak out, lol
Sorry if I’m being so pessimistic – but I am a pessimist, lol
Betsy, in horse racing isn’t winning at 30% conceived as pretty good. That leaves a 70% of losing. Ha ha I can understand the pessimism. Lol. All you do is hope that luck is with you.
Can’t argue with that, David!
Hopefully his regular jock will be on board …
Looking forward to watching the Grand National ! Have you ever seen the movie Champions? About Aldaniti, who won the 1981 running?
Yes, Betsy, I’ve seen the movie “Champions” a wonderfully inspirational film. Are you going to Aintree?
It sure is……
No, but I’d love to watch it in a pub – must be fun!
I’m going to hopefully go to York racetrack in June !
Taking a trip in June, also.
Is there a chance that Journalism and/or Barnes “bounce” coming out of their match race in the stretch of the San Felipe? Journalism earned a 108 BSF for his win and Barnes a 105 for his losing effort. That 108 is a pretty big number for March and both horses looked fully extended. Magnitude earned a 108 BSF and it knocked him out of action. Though an injury could be to blame.
Some people say that really good horses don’t “bounce”. I can believe that to a certain degree. Wise Dan always seemed to fire. So did Zenyatta. From my California days, I remember there was a theory that Zenyatta didn’t like Del Mar. Even though she won all her starts there. No, I don’t recall how many times she ran there. But I remember watching one specific race at Del Mar when Zenyatta was all-out to just get up in time at very short odds.
Maybe the very best horses, the ones that don’t come along very often, just find a way to win on even their bad days.
I’ll be watching that Santa Anita Derby to see if Barnes and Journalism hook up again and what happens. Unless BB sends Barnes to Arkansas. BB is one of the very best in the business at knowing his horses. If he senses that Barnes isn’t himself or 100%, I wouldn’t be surprised if BB pulls the plug and trains Barnes up to the Derby. As Poster Matthew has pointed out, the San Felipe was Barnes’ first 2-turn try. He could improve second time. That would make him scary. Might even get him into a three-way tie at the top of Steve Haskin’s Derby Rankings. Another first?
For Barnes’s sake and for his fans, let’s hope that he regroups after that big effort and races one more to earn enough qualifying points. Otherwise, BB will not be able to train him up to the KD. Currently, he has 18.75 points. That’s not going to make the cut.
I don’t consider BSFs in derby handicapping, but I am aware of them. Numbers as high as 105 in the penultimate prep are rare. In fact, those two horses from the San Felipe have the highest next-to-last-race numbers in the past 10 years among Ky Derby runners.
The last horse to earn a 105+ was California Chrome, who had a 108 in his San Felipe win. He went on to win the SA Derby with a 107 and the Ky Derby with a 97.
I’m not concerned at this point about a “bounce” by Journalism in the SA Derby. He just needs to run well. We know what he’s capable of doing.
TD,
What is Journalism capable of, that others with his potential are not?
Did I say that others are not?
No, you didn’t.
I guess I was wondering the relevance of the statement. His PPs reflect what he is capable of doing. But his PPs might not be the limit of his capabilities. That is unknown.
Kindly disregard the response.
My comments were in reply to a post about bounces after high BSFs.
What is Admiral Dennis capable of doing that others are not? What other “tools” he possesses that the others do not?
Good question!
I did specify my diminished faculties
Journalism/Sovereignty are the top dogs at the moment.
Admiral Dennis has the edge in the following categories.:
Higher cruising speed that takes him to the leaders on his bridle.
Transition from cruising to faster much smoother and faster.
Better stride mechanics
Better trainer
Dam line contains superior stamina influence as denoted by first 4 dam sires.
Obviously, I do not expect agreement from anyone regarding the above.
Very valid points. However, there are several that have similar attributes.
Admiral Dennis has a great Rasmussen factor. He’s 5×5 to Weekend Surprise.
Steve: This is off topic but a couple days ago I was watching a program on You Tube about the greatest brood mares in racing history. I believe that the person who put the program together listed his top 20 all time brood mares.
I think that with your knowledge & writing expertise it would be fantastic if you would put together your top 20 brood mares of the 20th Century.
The sires much of the time get all the credit for their progeny but without the brood mares the whole landscape would look different.
Thank you in advance 🙂
I’ll keep that on the list of possible columns. thanks Deacon
Thank you Deacon and Steve! I saw the same YouTube video and wondered what Steve would say on the subject!
Deacon, I think that is a great idea!
Some of these mares also had sucessful racing careers.
Steve, I would love a combo of Deacon and Lynda’s ideas! You could profile your favorite fillies and mares, with regard to their entire careers; ones that you liked at the track that then went on to become good producers.
It does make it trickier that it sometimes takes longer to see the female impact on pedigrees! For example, Darling My Darling really just hit the map as a dam of dams last year. But sometimes, it’s relatively quick, and even prolific – as with Personal Ensign.
Might be something for September. I remember it being a slow month last year.
Katy: A column like you mentioned would get very involved. I was speaking of the 20th century. The dams of today are still making their mark.
It would be an arduous & daunting task to cover the whole spectrum.
I was a little perplexed because Secretariats dam, Somethingroyal was left off of his list.
That is 1000% true Lynda..
I think I saw the same youTube video. Not having LaTroienne on it was very offputting. She should have been #1 hands down.
Hey David!
I kind of am, and sadly spending much of my time at the dentists, lol
But mostly I’m not paying much attention to racing lately as it’s kind of hard when HAP is struggling so badly
I had hopes for Rank, but he’s just not very good. He didn’t really take to the turf, so whatever future he has, it’s not on that surface.
I really don’t see what else they can do with him…I keep saying to ship him and let him run long, but that’s not going to happen. So either Doug keeps running him at 1 mile in MSW – where he’ll always find one or two better- or they drop him into an MCL
Another option would be to geld him…but I don’t think that will help. Rank has a very funky, Skip Away – like stride, which can’t be helping him at all
Betsy, you have my sympathy with the visits to the dentist but better now than during your trip to the UK.
You just never know, Rank might surprise you one day. Heart of Honor will be one of the favorites in the UAE Derby and don’t forget Jamie Osborne has won the UAE Derby before so he has a good grip on what is needed to win this race.
How many sleeps left before you’re in England? Exciting, non? Ha ha
Yeah, and I still need more work – it’s costing me tens of thousands of dollars, sigh
At this point, I’d be shocked…but who knows,
Well, I’m kind of meh on Heart at this point, but we’ll see. I’m just kind of done with plodders – they rarely win, always come up short. But, I’ll be rooting hard for him!!
Betsy, Heart of Honor is not one passed – plodder – he accelerates rapidly on command.
You are forgiven for being so grumpy, ha ha There is nothing worse than having to visit the dentist then paying for an arm or leg for the privilege.
“No dentist was disrespected in the above comment”. Lol. Don’t you just hate those weaselly, worm messages after an ad?
One paced, not passed. Lol
David, he just has zero speed lately- in fact, only in his maiden breaker did he show any, and that’s why it’s my favorite of his races
You know that horses that lag behind by double digits are at huge disadvantages…so, yeah, I’ve lowered my expectations considerably.
I’m not sure why he should turn the tables on Golden Vekoma or the horse who beat him last time. I’m not being grumpy – I think I’m being objective. He’s going to face another huge field, with better opposition. He can win – but I’m not expecting it…
I’ve already given up many of my teeth, lol – why not an arm & a leg? LOL
Chin up, Betsy. You’ll be flying over, the white cliffs of Dover, in no time and all this will be forgotten.
Bless him. Just not there yet.
I meant to add – I’m leaving April 3, so 3 weeks!!!
By the way, have you been following the OBMAR 2 year olds in training sale. There was a gorgeous Army Mule colt Hip 81 and an Independence Hall colt Hip 404 equally as stunning that appear, stardom bound.
Matthew, the Independence Hall colt is going to be trained by Mark Glatt so watch out for him in the near future.
David, TBH, I don’t follow sales anymore as my favorites are poor sellers, lol
Rank…the big beautiful O’Neill maiden—enters a turf stakes….
Yes, Matthew, I was hoping Betsy was going to post this but she must be frantically getting prepared for her trip to the Uk. 🇬🇧 Let’s hope Rank can do the business.
Excellent! (drums fingers a la Mr Burns)
Steve
I hope all is going well after your surgery.
I was wondering what you could add about Chris’s Revenge . I thought I had the perfect exacta but my other half (Rated By Merit) was injured and removed from consideration for the derby.
Thanks
All the best for recovery !
Chris
After the performances delivered by sovereignty and Journalism last Saturday. My $200 wager on all others in Pool #3 is now on life support waiting for the dreaded decision to pull the plug.
I am an incurable optimist. But when my optimism is wavering, I do not delve into pessimism but rather realism.
The reality is Thoroughbred Racing is sport of glorious uncertainties and just about any result is possible on any given 1st Saturday in May.
I might just be in serious mental decline, a state in which one is capable of hearing the sounds of silence.
Can the joint stranglehold of Mr. P/ND sire lines on the KD be stopped in 2025?
Cold Battle – A P Indy
Never had to repel the challenge of an opponent with extreme late speed. The likes of Sovereignty and Journalism have a similar running style and appear to have the class edge. Tenacious and versatile but appears to be cut below the top dogs
Sandman – A P Indy
I once referred to him as $1M worth of slowness. As one of the winners in the Street Sense. he was demolished the maiden Sovereignty under a hand ride. Has only won a slow AOC since. Has done nothing to convince he is fast enough even over 10F.
Flood Zone –
Slow times recorded on a slow Aqueduct surface equate to a toss in the KD.
Render Judgment- Roberto/Turn To
In search of additional points. Bred to run all day. But has underperformed badly and must be capable better. His sole career win was recorded at CD ala Rich Strike.
Tiztastic – A P Indy
Inbred 2×3 to mega stamina influence Tapit. He appears just as slow as his sire. Is there a Magnitude in in him from behind?
Admiral Dennis – A P Indy
Lots of talent that has not helped him with exiting the gates. His owners are overdue for a KD win. The gap he closed in the Rebel indicates he can be a serious threat if he gets his act together.
John Handcock – A P Indy
Talented, undefeated and very fast but only at TBD. His next start will shed light on whether he is the real deal. He will have to be to dethrone the joint venture’s dominance.
When all is said and done. There are more combined prospects on the trail from the joint venture lines. If the top dogs fail to deliver., Those a cut below are very capable of filling the void.
But it is hoped that the stranglehold will be broken in 2025. Yes! there is always hope. The audacity of hope.
Sorry, Counter Point! This was supposed to file under your Mr. Prospector/Northern Dancer sire lines post, which I found very interesting.
I got to Rapture before I found another offshoot of Nasrullah, by way of Caro.
I think it is time for me to get the newest prominent sire lines chart. Fappiano has his own big chunk of real estate under Mr P.
I am familiar with the male line connected to Fappiano particularly via Unbridled and his dynasty. However, I reference Mr. P as opposed to Fappiano because M. P had several sons that are just as influential.
Seeking The Gold was the sire of Dubi Millennium and that’s makes him the grand sire of mega stallion Dubawi
Smart Strike was the sire of mega stallion Curlin and grand sire of Rich Strike and Mage. Smart Strike is broodmare sire of two KD winners. He is also sire of two Preakness winner and grand sire of 2019 promoted KD winner Country House and current KD favorite Journalism.
Mr. Prospector and Northern Dancer still have huge headings, where the disappearing lines just can’t.
I think the families as you named them made sense. My out of order posts, on the other hand, did not! I hereby swear to stop insomnia posting.
Really interesting!
The Seattle Slew/Bold Ruler sireline has had a dry spell, but gave us two in a row with California Chrome and Orb. This line has a few live shots sitting in the dozen this year!
Katy, CC’s pedigree isn’t insignificant as a few stated over the years.
Mike, I agree! I always really liked Chrome’s pedigree – it’s possible to be well bred on a budget! I hope he will have the best advantages in Japan. I would love to see him flourish and excel there. I just love that horse, and hope he gets the hero treatment he deserves.
Was at Derby when CC prevailed.
What an incredible thrill, Mike!
I recently rewatched that Derby and some footage of the day. Chrome appeared to just skim over the track, almost deer-like. He never looked hard on himself, which must have helped his longevity and durability as a runner.
PS – Footage of the 2014 Derby yields quite a few sightings of our very own favorite, Steve Haskin!
Coal Battle is LOADED with Seattle Slew. I have never seen this much linebreeding to the great monster ever. In 6 generations he’s 5x5x5x5x6x6 to Slew in every quadrant with sex balance.
Magnificent!
He’s also 5x5x6x6x6 to Mr Prospector and also 5×5 to Roberto. It’s a masterclass in classic linebreeding.
Correct Andrea. Some tried to discredit him on the racetrack as well in the shed.
Sorry Andrea, my comment regarding Chrome being discredited.
I happen to agree with you regarding Chrome. His pedigree is loaded with La Troienne power and he also has Rasmussen facor duplications to Somethingroyal. I LOVE his pedigree and hope he explodes in Japan to pull a Sunday Silence middle finger to the snooty breeding industry that gave up on him so quickly.
Andrea, great points! Agree 100%. In contact with Steve Coburn for several years.
Coal Front was also bred and then sold on a budget! How did we get here?
Katy, always believed s good horse can come from anywhere. Many instances the million dollar horses bomb on track as well in the shed.
Half of Steve Haskin’s top six are Into Mischiefs.
I hope that I used Into Mischief in my exactas during the Sire Futures. It seems like a long time ago. To tell the truth, I forget what I played there.
The quintessential “crazy gambler”? I have to get ahold of myself sometimes. Save some cash for the big day.
With the lone Oaks Future coming up this weekend, I hope no one minds that I make a comment. To me, Brad C has a stranglehold on this year’s edition of the race. I expect Good Cheer to be a solid favorite on Oaks Friday. But I was impressed with Eclatant’s maiden win. She was even better in her second start before disappointing in the Golden Rod. Her first try around 2-turns. Eclatant won for a third time in the Forward Gal. There could be some distance limitations. But I’m looking forward to her next one.
Muhimma won her first three before disappointing as the favorite in the Honeybee at Oaklawn in her last. I thought she looked very dull that day. But she has already won at a mile and an eighth.
I will invest $30 on a $5 exacta box using these three Brad C trainees in the Future pool. And maybe again on Oaks Day. Fingers crossed.
12-1 “All others”…..looks like weak bunch….
Are you saying that at this late date the Oaks winner might not be included in the 39 single horses offered in the Oaks Future? It’s possible, I guess. That would signal a weak group.
I could add #40-All Others to my three. But that would double the cost of my ticket to $60.
Tommy, I agree that Cox has an excellent chance to win the Oaks with one of his many good fillies. Does it seem to you like the fillies are a little behind the colts in what they’ve shown so far this year? Other than Good Cheer, no one has really impressed me, other than the Queen’s M.G., who I think is best at a mile.
Yes, I can agree with that.
As impressive as Praetor’s 7 length victory Sunday was, he was assigned a 79 Beyer, an 11-point drop from his last race. I would take that “number” with a large grain of salt.
When asked by a reporter how we know his horse(s) is ready, Bob Baffert said, “When I put one on a plane.”
Such a smug n’er-do-well
Hey Steve
You must have more time on your hands these days. In all the years i have been reading your derby dozen thru all your forums , we have never seen the projection of colts in the last preps. Great article this week. You outdid yourself.
Thanks for moving Caldera as an up in comer, its exciting just to hope , even though we have a small piece of the colt we might have a chance to make the gate.
Great read
Thank you.
Thank you very much Mark. I appreciate the kind words. I said before the Rankings started I was writing too much and will write much less this year. I realize now I am more addicted to the Derby than ever before, now as an observer from afar. And yes I have too much time on .my hands.
I think Tony Bennet once said that if you are a creative, as you get older you get more productive. It’s my 64th birthday today, and I prefer to see your writing through that lens (not to mention always so happy to enjoy your view.)
Happy Birthday Angela. I think you are looking thru the right lens and Tony was correct I believe my best, at least most enjoyable work has come in the 5 years I’ve been with Secretariat. com
Glad to hear you are enjoying it. We sure are!
We are indeed!
Happy Birthday!
Angela, I just read your horoscope for today. ‘You might explore ways to share your creativity in a more public way, such as contributing your ideas and insight to a group’ and here you are doing exactly that.
Happy Birthday 🎉
KD Future Wager odds, in Pool #5, have been released.
Journalism opened at 3-1. closely followed by Sovereignty at 5-1.
There are several, at big odds, that look enticing, IMO.
Praetor, 80-1
Grande, 60-1
Cornucopian, 60-1
Baeza, 80-1
Getaway Car, 40-1 (odds will drop significantly if he wins the Virigina Derby)
Rapture, 80-1 (odds will drop if he wins the Virginia Derby)
John Hancock, 20-1
Pool #5 is scheduled to open on Friday, March 14th, and close on Sunday, March 16th
I have GRANDE at 80-1 i believe in pool 3 i forget now . Also have Getaway Car at 60 to one Coal battle at 80-1 and Journalism at 30 -1
Good luck with those futures bets, Mark.
You’re fortunate to have Journalism at 30-1.
KD Future Wager Pool#5
Journalism 3-1
Sovereignty 5-1
Barnes 6-1
Oaks Pool#1
Good Cheer 3-1
Tenma 7-2
I might put a few bucks on Eclatant at 12-1 or better. Brad C could sweep the Trifecta in this one.
After watching replays, Getaway Car looks best on paper. I think that Caldera would have beat him in New Mexico if Caldera wasn’t wide on both turns.
I might take a shot with Render Judgement.
I’m not really in love with any horses in the Virginia Derby.
It’s a shame that the field is so weak in a race with such a rich history of producing Derby runners. 😉
Now that John Hancock is not going to sign in, I’m hoping Wayne Lukas’ colt American Promise takes the Virginia Derby and sends DWL off to the Derby well for one more try.
More likely that Caldera is his ticket.
Speed figures –
Rich Strike’s final KD prep was a 3rd place finish in the Jeff Ruby. He was assigned an Equibase figure of 97.
Epicenter’s final KD prep was a victory in the LA Derby. He was assigned an Equibase figure of 102
Five-points separated the two. Starting price $80.80 & $4.10. I am not good at math, but it is hardly likely that a 5 points differential equates to the differential in the starting price.
Journalism broke his maiden by 21/2L in a MSW over 8F in 1:36.49. Notable opponents Rank & Mellencamp. he was assigned an Equibase figure of 105
Sovereignty broke his maiden by 5L in the 8 1/2F Street Sense (G3) against winners and under a hand ride. Notable opponents Sandman & Tiztastic. He was assigned an Equibase figure of 99.
One colt defeated maidens by 2 1/2L hard ridden and the other defeated winner in a graded stake by 5L under a hand ride and is assigned the lower figure.
How can speed figures be relevant when pertinent factors are ignored?
The master of numbers is undoubtedly Andy Beyer. he referred to Rebel’s Romance as a fraud ahead of the BC Turf Classic. The horse won is NRT. his recent achievements include 6 wins in 5 different countries and 2nd Eclipse for Champion older turf horse.
How can a man so immersed in numbers be so wrong? Number do lie.
The stallion lines associated with last 6 KD winners are shared equally. Mr. Prospector (3) and Northern Dancer (3) During the last 6-years there were 2 DQs with one from each line.
The rankings for Week 6 & 7 features jointed #1 i.e., Journalism and Sovereignty. Journalism’s sire Curlin is a Mr. Prospector line stallion. Sovereignty’s sire Into Mischief is a Nothern Dancer line stallion. Which of the two dominant stallion lines will emerge successful in 2025?
Into Mischief is the sire of Authentic (2020) and Mandaloun (2021). His son Goldencents is the sire of 2024 KD winner Mystik Dan. What’s the prospect of Into Mischief being a KD wining sire 3 times in 5 years?
The great Bull Lea (1935) sired 3 KD winners between 1945 and 1954. He was a phenomenal sire with 7 of his progenies inducted in the HOF. Is Into Mischief in the class of Bull Lea? Hardly likely! Three KD winners in a span of 5-year doesn’t appear to be a bit of history in the making for 2025. But history choses its own writing time.
Curlin has been knocking at the KD Door. His Good Magic finished 2nd to Justify in the 2018 KD. Curlin’s sons Keen Ice and Good Magic were the respective sires of 2022 KD winner (Rich Strike) & 2023 winer (Mage)
How does Journalism compare to Curlin’s best KD finisher Good Magic? Journalism has big booths to fill as Good Magic won the BCJ as a maiden. It took an eventual TC winner to deny him in the KD.
Both colts are very talented, and one will have to deliver an exceptional performance to overcome the historic hurdle that awaits both.
Nice post, Counter.
You forgot that EXXAGERATOR was also by CURLIN and was second in the KY derby not to mention his two grandsons MAGE by Good MAGIC and Rich Strike by Keen ice won the ky derby. He is due.
Into Mischief sired Authentic, the winner of the 2020 COVID September Ky Derby, and Mandaloun, who finished second in the following year’s derby. We need not delve into the sad details of the latter event. I wish Sovereignty well in becoming Into Mischief’s first TRUE derby winner.
Bull Lea had a total of 377 foals, Into Mischief has at present sired 2,010 foals and still counting…
Looks like an inbreeding freight train looming in the near future.
I gain so much from your analysis every week, Steve and I look forward to Tuesday. And I was thrilled to see Caldera on there, as like last year with Seize the Grey, I’m one of the many owners through My Racehorse.
Good luck with him!
Owen Almighty earned an in-the-ballpark 95 Brisnet for the TB Derby.
A runner out of the Florida or Santa Anita Derby has won 8 of the last 13 renewals of the Derby and the early chalks look to contend again. Battaglia has Journalism as the 3-1 favorite in Pool 5. That’s a tough play for the price considering a lot of Derby day chalks sit around 5/2 on race day. Maybe use the Oaks/Derby double pool instead. We may yet be in for a surprise or two as we get into the 9 panel races which would provide some value to the All Others option, at least underneath.
California Chrome was 3 for 3 in 2014…with an 8 length win in San Felipe—and an eased 4 3/4 length win in SA Derby…..and went off 5/2 on the 20 horse Derby—3-1 in March? No thank you, I imagine you can get 3-1 on the day of—and you are guaranteed to start….
Exactly. Justify got hammered down in final pool and left the gate at approximately the same price. He would need to blow the doors off Bull and Sovereignty would need to underwhelm in FL to see a tote short of 2-1. Any wagering value with him in the pool would be the Oaks double since money is spread across 40×40 versus a max field of 14×20…. and potentially the exacta combo. I liked boxing with the All Others before the number of wagering interests doubled in size. It wasn’t uncommon to get several starters out of it even this late in the game. Rich Strike was one. Battaglia does peg Citizen Bull at 8-1 which is probably about where the pool will close at. A fair price for the champ.
Bigtime gamble by the John Hancock team with only 20 KD points. In or out of KD depending on Louisiana Derby finish, after scratching out of the Virginia Derby.
Not really much of a gamble. The La Derby is coming up a bit light compared to other final preps. A second in the LD is as good as a win in the Virginia Derby. Getaway Car has a major class edge in the VD (ouch…that’s a bad abbreviation), and this will be his second start after a short layoff.
Well John Hancock had a good post (#2) in the Virginia Derby. Possibly could get a unfavorable post draw, on top of a additional ⅛ to contend with at the G2 level in the Louisiana Derby.
According to Steve’s KOTD Louisiana Derby segment, possible entrants of East Avenue, Built, Caldera, Tiztastic, Chunk of Gold, Instant Replay, and Yinzer, doesn’t seem like a crew to take too lightly at this elongated distance.
Typically, I think, it’s a good sign when the connections opt for the stronger race. They’re not looking for just any win. An on-the-board placing would satisfy them. Also, the Virginia Derby is not a graded stakes.
Even a 4th or 5th in Louisiana is potentially enough to secure a gate. And, if he can’t hit the Hi5 there, then he probably shouldn’t go longer. He’s #20 on the points list now and while a few are likely to leap, there’s usually defections and ailments that knock some out.
Thanks for the terrific insight Steve . There just isn’t anybody else doing this work covering horses with as much knowledge and your back stories on famous horses . We appreciate it .
Thanks Ted . Not many people in racing read it. But as long as everyone here enjoys it
Lots of people like me are reading every word and appreciate you so much. I comment from time to time and should more often, but you are appreciated well beyond the group that posts here regularly. I think you are the best sports writer of all time.
Steve
You’re the only writer I take the time every week to read multiple times. I always find something new that I either forgot or skimmed over . You have an insight like no other . Been a very long time reader and have enjoyed every minute. You have the history and have spent a lot of time gathering information for us . And for that I Thank you immensely
Thank you Steve
Chris
Steve: With respect & reverence for your writing skills this Derby post was your best work, IMO. I read every paragragh twice. You left no stone unturned. I hope you are on the mend with your eye surgery.
The top 2 will be tough to beat but for some reason I still favor Citizen Bull in the Derby.
Since only 2 horses have won the B.C. Juvenille & the Kentucky Derby, (Street Sense & Nyquist) the odds are not in Citizen Bulls favor.
Get well soon…………….
Thank you so much Deacon. I really appreciate it.
Ditto. this was awesome and gets me hyped for the big preps coming up. Thanks for everything and so glad to still have you writing these columns. Everyone feels your passion. You’re a National Treasure, Steve!
Thank you so much. Scott. That means a lot.
Hi Steve!
Good to see you commenting! Surgery went well I hope.
I lot to digest in Week 7. Thank you so much for the info on the upcoming races.
Would like to add one to the Dubai Derby, American bred Golden Vekoma. He certainly has the pedigree in my opinion to go the distance. It was a close race with Shin Forever. I do think Shin Forever is distance limited (based on his pedigree).
Thank you for mentioning Omaha Omaha. My thought is that he has a chance to do well in the Virginia Derby.
Take care!
Thanks Lynda. My Japanese connection who does their PR at all the big events didn’t mention him. Maybe it was an oversight.
Steve, per Michael Adolphson on X Golden Vekoma is in Dubai training up for the UAE Derby.
Another colt he mentioned on a X post is Flood Zone.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see a couple more scratches from the Virginia Derby.
Calling Card is coming back in just 14 days and Studlydoright is coming back in 21 days.
I know that he is still regulated to “KNOCKING AT THE DOOR”, but I will be keeping an eye on Hill Road who ran pretty well at Tampa on Saturday. He needed that race and didn’t get a favorable pace scenario.
Hill Road could join Sovereignty, Sandman, and Journalism as horses who would be running late at Louisville. Although, as one poster put it, Journalism is “handier” than the other three.
Coal Battle doesn’t blow you away with numbers, but he has kind of an “it factor”. Sorry ladies, but you hear guys say “there is something about that chick”. Well, there is something about that horse. I just get the feeling that he will be somewhere close at the finish. Let’s see if he can keep it going in the Arkansas Derby.
With only 12 horses ranked, I wouldn’t consider being mentioned in KOTD being relegated. Lots of very good horses there
I’m not a very good writer. I was a laborer all my life. My comment wasn’t meant as a knock. You are correct. There are plenty of good horses on the list. I wouldn’t put Hill Road in the top 12 either. Not yet. A third place finish in the Tampa Bay Derby, and a distant third place finish at that, doesn’t get him a spot in the top-12.
I just like the looks of him. He caught my eye. Personally, I am more interested in him moving forward towards the Derby than I am his stablemate, Chancer McPatrick. He’ll have to do better in his next one.
I’m just looking for a “price” or two to put with Sovereignty and Journalism in a trifecta.
It has been confirmed that John Hancock will scratch from the Virginia Derby and enter the Louisiana Derby on March 22nd.
That is unfortunate.
Would like to have seen the bigger owners, trainers supporting the Virginia Derby.
I agree, Lynda
I was hoping to see John Hancock matched up against Getaway Car in the Virginia Derby. Now, it appears Getaway Car’s main competition will be your pick, Rapture.
Good luck, Lynda.
Thanks Bill.
I think the Lucas horse is a live play in VA Derby. He had a 1:11 6 furlong work a few weeks ago, really didn’t run poorly in his last (first stakes) race and had a very bad start, and we all know Lucas is gonna find a way to get someone in his barn to the first Sat in May…. With John Hancock out getting on or near lead will be more doable.
Lynda
Could it be that it is a 1 turn race at 11/8 miles ? Or that is too much of an unknown as it is new to the road ?
I was wondering also why ? Looking forward to your opinion.
Thanks
Chris
Hardly a ‘knock on the door’, more like a battering ram. Great job Steve.
Lol. Thanks
East Avenue continues to train super as Steve Haskin points out. John Hancock scratching from East Kent to run in the Louisiana Derby could be bad news for East Avenue if Brendan Walsh is planning to run him there. Although I think East Avenue looked pretty comfortable stalking Magnitude for a while in the race where Magnitude absolutely freaked to break his heart. East Avenue is training at Fair Grounds, but maybe he goes to Keeneland as Steve Haskin points out. I still have hope for East Avenue. One more chance.
Still believe EA can make some noise.
He worked awesome the other day
Yes he did.
Well folks better keep an eye on Caldera to upset both of them
For a guy undergoing eye surgery, Steve Haskin still provides outstanding content. Thank you, Sir.
Now comes news that Flood Zone will be going to the UAE Derby according to DRF. I don’t really like that move. Why go halfway around the world if your ultimate goal is to win/run in the Kentucky Derby? I don’t know who owns that horse. Maybe the owner has ties to Dubai. Maybe the UAE Derby has a huge purse. I seem to remember it as a million dollar race. They could get that at home. Maybe more at Oaklawn. But I could be wrong. Brad C is a sharp cookie. I’m sure they have their reasons. Maybe they see Dubai as an easier spot. Didn’t Pinehurst win that race a few years ago? He was what Steve Haskin might refer to as a second tier BB horse.
Tommy, the UAE Derby is worth 2 million. There’s your answer. Pity isn’t it, Flood Zone was an exciting prospect for the Wood Memorial.
Two million is the answer. Makes it worth the trip.
And, if the horse has an affinity for the track, can try the $12M World Cup next year.
Of the 25 runnings of the UAE Derby there has been 1 US success, Plus Que Parfait in 2019.
There have been a host of international runners preparing there all year. Besides Norther Hemisphere 3 year olds the race includes 4 year olds from the Southern Hemisphere.
Good luck to Flood Zone, he’ll need it.
$2.5 million, I believe. More than triple the $750k of the Wood Memorial.
Wow what a write up!, You outdid yourself! Thank you
Thank you Jeff. So glad you enjoyed it
Hi Steve
First off, I’m hopeful everything went well with your cataract surgery.
Your Derby Rankings-Week 7 is not only thought provoking but beautifully written to open up the “mind’s eye” on how these Derby prospects are progressing down the Derby trail. Thank you for providing those Thoro-Graph numbers on Journalism, Sovereignty and Barnes. You were spot on with your selection of Mystik Dan having the best Thoro-Graph number in the 2024 Derby field. Needless to say, I’ll be paying particular attention to Thoro-Graphs this year.
I understand your thinking on having Sovereignty and Journalism as co-number ones.
Based on the following reasons, I have Journalism rated at number one:
His sire line leads directly to Mr. Prospector, vs the ND sire line for Sovereignty.
His Equine Speed figure, last out, is higher, 110 vs 98 for Sovereignty
His Beyer number, last out, is higher, 108 vs 95 for Sovereignty.
Both are homebred, so that’s a wash.
Lastly, Journalism’s Thoro-Graph number, at -1/2, is better than Sovereignty’s at 1 3/4.
Just as it seems to be the case every year, it will be Best in the West, vs Best in the East.
If all goes well for these two impressive colts moving forward on the Derby trail, both will be in the Derby starting gate, on May 3rd. May the best horse win.
Thank you for providing your Derby Rankings, week after week. Your hard work is much appreciated.
I think somebody else is going to win, not sure who though.
It’s all too perfect to pick those two at this point. I think Steve had it right when he said you want them to peak at 1 1/4 miles, not 1 1/16.
Discopartner
To respond to a comment that is not directed at you, is not only out of line, but downright rude. My comment was posted to Steve Haskin, not you.
I seriously doubt that Steve is in need of someone like you to speak on his behalf.
Get a grip Discopartner.
Hey, captain obvious…..this is an OPEN forum. If you want to have a private chat with Steve, perhaps you should DM him.
Get a grip of your fragile emotions.
A perfect and concise response, Z.
Zany
Two things here. Based on your past comments stating the obvious, and/or parroting statements that other contributors have already mentioned, look in the mirror. You should be the one wearing the “captain obvious” hat.
Additionally, I’m in full control of my emotions. Your anger is on full display here, so it appears you’re the one that needs to get a grip on your emotions.
BTW, this back and forth serves no purpose. We done, over and out!
BD,
One thing here. You have a very THIN skin.
Have a pleasant….whatever it is you do to occupy yourself with.
Zany, full blown narcissism on display.
Mike, there are two types of “P”….. people.
Certain people fall into both categories.
You’ve probably read my comment on the other site.
Zany, your comments are well stated as usual. A few ACTUALLY believe they are the straw that stirs the drank. Over exaggerated sense of self importance.
She’s just emulating her hero.
For sure! EDIT: drink
“Bill Dawson”:
When someone disagrees to you, you fume. However, I don’t like being contradicted either.
Just to be clear, I was speaking on my behalf, I can refer to the article on here, especially as that is what you’re expected to do.
Discopartner
It’s not about fuming, it’s all about compiling with proper protocol
Nothing more, nothing less.
Have a good day, Discopartner.
What proper protocol, I responded to your comment, period, You are WAY out of line to complain about it.
Disco, always enjoy your comments. Your take regarding racing is interesting.
Wow.
Someone has too high of an opinion of her opinion. LOL! It must be a heavy load to take yourself so seriously.
Larkspur, always.
Thanks so much Bill. I really appreciate that.
You’re welcome, Steve.
All the best to you moving forward.
To totally overlook Owen Almighty when discussing the runner up’s effort is a kind of handicapping I disagree with. I now am cheering for Owen to win the Derby, assuming he continues on this path. Irad Ortiz let up on him before the finish line, the only reason McPatrick gained a half length in the late stretch.
You may have just looked at the ranking numbers and names. Steve wrote, “As for Owen Almighty, his trainer Brian Lynch again stated his decision would be to keep him at shorter distances.” Also, the rider of Chancer let up a bit nearing the wire, just like the winner.
Based on what I’ve been reading, a definitive decision has yet to be made on Owen Almighty’s future plans.
It’s not a good sign when the connections are on the fence less than eight weeks from the derby.
Not a good sign for sure.
Tony, Owen is talented, but short on distance. More than likely can’t get 10f.
I think you meant to reply to Disco’s post.
It’s been well publicized that the trainer is waiting to see how Owen trains this week because he came out of the race very well. He’s seriously thinking about putting him back on the trail. The owners are ready to do that now. You couldn’t even see McPatrick ‘til just before the line, Owen let up at least 50 yards before the line. Owen was tired, there’s no doubt, but he went the last 3/16ths very fast. I don’t like how commenters are trashing the Tampa Bay surface. The final round of preps will reveal who has a chance to win the Derby, I don’t think any of them have reached that level yet.
Every trainer of a serious derby prospect is waiting to see how his charge trains. But they don’t say beforehand that they may not go to the derby. Steve’s rankings aren’t for horses that are questionable for the derby.
You keep generalizing. Try reading the articles about Owen Almighty. I read a DRF article yesterday that said the trainer was pleased with how he ate up on Sunday and how he was acting energetic, so the trainer will see how he does light training this week before deciding. This horse won a major prep and ran well to win on the lead and has gotten a lot of unwarranted knocks by people who are guessing, this is a future event, not a bygone one.
Steve limits his rankings to 12 prospects that have the Ky Derby as a target. The trainer is inclined to skip the derby. That alone keeps FZ from a top 12 ranking. Considering what happened with Classic Causeway, I would not be surprised if the owners insist upon a derby run. Lynch had to enter CC in the Ky Derby because the owners wanted it, despite a horrible effort in the Florida Derby (coincidentally after a slow-paced gate-to-wire win in the TB Derby). This time, the horse in question WON the prep.
As for FZ’s feeding and his energy level, those evaluations help the trainer decide whether to race or not race anywhere…whether it be the derby or the mile.
You don’t have to explain to me how the rankings work, are you a spokesperson or blog monitor? I suggest you read the DRF article on Owen Almighty.
Owen Almighty should be treated as a possible Derby entry due to his undecided status and big win. As a result of his win, he has the second highest points on the leaderboard and has enough to get in the Derby if they decide to go.
There are at least a couple of folks here on short fuses. As the spokesperson AND blog monitor, I must be even-tempered.
Yes, the trainer has said many times that he wants to run in the Pat Day Mile. According to the Blood Horse, on Saturday the chief owner said he wanted to run in the Kentucky Derby. I guess it’s a matter of who prevails, who changes his mind, or how the other owners feel. As I mentioned on last week’s thread, back when the Wood Memorial was only two weeks before the Derby, Leroy Jolley announced after the Wood that Genuine Risk would not run in the Derby. Diana Firestone overruled him, and of course, the filly won. As for Owen Almighty, I guess we just have to wait and see. But for me, he’s not out until he’s out. He will be on my list until he’s formally declared from the race or until he fails to pass the entry box. I’m not giving up on him yet.
Any owner can brag about owning a horse that ran in the Kentucky Derby win or lose. Never heard one brag about running in the Pat Day mile. Derby fever hard to overcome
Are those bragging rights worth the $50k entry fee, potentially missing out on the $350k winner’s share of the Pat Day Mile purse, and potentially messing up your nice horse for the year if they don’t handle the 20-horse cavalry charge well?
We saw this just last year with Endlessly. A nice turf/synthetic horse, trainer didn’t like him on the dirt, didn’t want to go the Derby, he was overruled and the horse was nowhere near winning, ran last in his next race (G1 Belmont Derby), and hasn’t run since.
I agree with you that it may not be what’s right for the horse or financially for the owners, but some owners only get a shot at the Derby once in their lifetime
Sure,but pushing a horse where they don’t fit makes no sense.
Don’t see him getting that distance with his bloodlines
Correct Mark.
My gawd! This is FREE? Exceptional!
Tony D, bringing it with the best comment! We are so fortunate that Steve lets us in on this journey!
Lol. That is the best compliment ever. Thank you! And you’re right about owen almighty. I know Brian Lynch and if the does go for the Derby it will be the owners decision not his.
I hope you are doing well after your surgery, Steve, and I wish you a quick recovery.
This is one of my favorites of your Derby columns because I’ve been wondering who was going to run where. Those are going to be some very exciting races.
I appreciate it Jiffy. Thank you.
Steve, you’re a marvel, and a mensch. I was trying to place certain runners hither and thither in various preps but you’ve down it for me. Bless you and take care of yourself.
Can’t wait to the column in full detail.
read, that is.
Thanks very much, David. I really appreciate it
Looking forward to the SA Derby where Journalism will try to continue his 2 stakes wins win streak. The added distance to 1 1/8 should only benefit his kick in the stretch. Journalism is a fresh horse , having only rqn once as a 3 year old . He made a statement in his last win by rolling by Barnes, going away. Rispoli wanted to win this one, when the whip was out on Journalism in the stretch, he quickly caught and passed Barnes, with a strong gallop out. Journalism is in with the points. As long as he is strongly gaining on CB in the stretch , I will be happy. His connections want to win the KY Derby and not empty the tank in the SA Derby. With that said, I still believe Journalism will beat CB in the SA Derby. When that train gets rolling, there’s no stopping him. The long CD stretch will benefit Journalism who should relish 1 1/4. Only one more race to go , then run like the wind for the roses 🌹 Journalism.
Hoping we finally get to see Curlins first son win the Derby
Definitely a big shot Mark. Good luck with Journalism at 30-1, I was fortunate to grab him in KDFW2 at 52-1, now he’s the 3-1 KDFW FAV.
Thanks Steve. You’ve been working hard. I agree, the Wood may have some welcome relevance this year.
Yes, I have been. Todd. Lol
Sending good thoughts your way for a speedy recovery on today’s eye surgery, Steve. This is another great column, which had me adjusting my top 12 list as I read. News today is that Brad Cox is thinking of sending FLOOD ZONE to the UAE Derby. He has a great chance to win that race, but in my opinion the stress and travel will compromise any chance he has of also winning the Derby.
Thank you Ms. B. I agree with you about Flood Zone. Not the ogical wa\ay to get to the Derby
Ms Blacktype, let’s hope Brad Cox thinks again about sending Flood Zone to the UAE Derby this foolhardy experiment seldom if ever works by US trainers.
Brad Cox should have raced Flood Zone in Japan last year, and then sent him to the Saudi Derby prior to the UAE Derby.
Tony, Brad Cox only became Flood Zone’s trainer for the Gotham Stakes. Flood Zone was previously trained by Victor Barboza Jr.
Why the connections want to send Flood Zone to the UAE Derby seems a big ask to me.
Davids, my post was a feeble attempt to allude facetiously to Forever Young’s path to, and nose loss in, last year’s derby. My serious take is that the connections feel more confident their chances in winning a big foreign purse than in winning the Ky Derby.
All good, Tony, I picked up the facetiousness. I agree with your sentiments 100%.
Most winners of the UAE Derby have had plenty of experience on the track, moreover, there are a handful of very competitive runners well seasoned there all year.
I wish Flood Zone all the best but the Wood Memorial seemed ideal to me,
Steve:
I hope your recovery is already going well…
Thank you very much for the comprehensive overview of who will be where in the upcoming 100 point to the winner races; I am very much looking forward to all of them, especially the Santa Anita Derby and Arkansas Derby, if Coal Battle is entered.
Current futures:
1. Citizen Bull +750
2. Journalism +800
3. Sovereignty +1000
4. Barnes, Cornucopian +1200
5. Coal Battle, Sandman +1500
Barnes and Cornucopian at 12-1 is ridiculous. Maybe 25-1. Maybe.
Agree; too low
Barnes at 12-1 is good. TG at 1.5 with 105 BSF in 3rd start. Good chance he improves even further
Yep. Medina Spirit was the bride’s maid before crossing the Derby wire first. This troupe does look a bit deeper than the 2021 field but we shall see.
Thanks, Biggy.
Steve, Superlative Knocking at the door !
Thank you Mark! I hope everyone enjoys it