2025 Kentucky Derby Rankings – Week 8
This is the final slow week on the Derby trail, which as of now is very top-heavy with the bottom half desperately needing a breakout horse. Did we just see one? Soon the list of hopefuls will begin to decrease dramatically, so let’s take care of a few odds and ends, and with the Thoro-Graph numbers and Beyers having been discussed each week let’s take a look at the Brisnet figures, especially the early, middle, and late pace figs to get an idea of what these horses’ strengths and weaknesses might be. ~ Steve Haskin
Derby Rankings: March 18, 2025 – Week 8
By Steve Haskin
1—Journalism (Mike McCarthy, Curlin – Mopotism, by Uncle Mo)
1—Sovereignty (Bill Mott, Into Mischief – Crowned, by Bernardini)
It is gratifying having two favorites with so many strengths and so few weaknesses as Journalism and Sovereignty. And what makes them such solid favorites is that they have already established who they are and how they will handle the stretch-out to a mile and a quarter. By doing so they get a free pass, at least to me, in their final preps as long as they run their race. We have to keep reminding ourselves in this win-only world that the last five Derby winners lost their final prep, with emphasis on the word prep. So did some of the most noted Derby winners, such as Silver Charm, Alysheba, Ferdinand, Thunder Gulch, Genuine Risk, Funny Cide, Street Sense, Monarchos and Real Quiet just to name a few. This is in no way meant to suggest either Journalism or Sovereignty are going to lose their next race, but there are many ways to lose and maintain your lofty reputation. Would anyone be surprised if Citizen Bull is out there alone and wires his field in a small field again? Would anyone be surprised if a fitter, more experienced Tappan Street did the same in the Florida Derby in what also could be a small field?
I am merely saying they don’t have to win; a luxury most of the others do not have, even those with enough points to get in. They still have to prove they are Derby caliber. Journalism and Sovereignty both did that by winning their 3-year-old debuts in a race most felt they needed and wouldn’t be at their best. But they won anyway, with both defeating fast undefeated horses. I remember when Monarchos was spectacular winning the Florida Derby and faced the brilliant Congaree in a small field in the Wood Memorial. Monarchos’ trainer John Ward told jockey Jorge Chavez if Congaree has a big lead don’t bottom out your horse trying to catch him. This was still a prep, and a good second is just fine. Congaree did open a five-length lead at the eighth pole and Monarchos did close some ground, but all on his own to be beaten 2 ¾ lengths in a sharp 1:47 4/5. He then went out and ran the second fastest Kentucky Derby (1:59 4/5) in history behind Secretariat.
Journalism and Sovereignty, like Monarchos, are on course to peak on Derby Day and just need to get through their final prep with a solid race. Journalism turned in a monster 113 Brisnet late pace figure off a 92 middle pace figure in the San Felipe to earn a 104 speed figure, fastest of the year. Sovereignty, who does things more deliberately and is working his way forward, ran a strong enough 103 late pace figure off a 92 middle pace figure for a career-high 99 speed figure in the Fountain of Youth. What is most important is that they both showed with those numbers they can close fast after running at a strong pace, and that is what wins the Kentucky Derby.
3—Citizen Bull (Bob Baffert, Into Mischief – No Joke, by Distorted Humor)
He continues to train brilliantly with three straight six-furlong works that should have him dead-fit for his much-anticipated showdown with Journalism. And what should we expect after seeing him break off eight lengths behind his workmate Monday morning and then pouring it on after the wire to complete six fulongs in 1:12 flat? As a side note, it feels so great to write the words “much-anticipated showdown” instead of “wide-open race with no standout.” The Santa Anita Derby also will have a couple of interesting horses in Bullard and Baeza looking to get into the Kentucky Derby by sneaking their way between Citizen Bull and Journalism. And after having to pass the Virginia Derby due to a fever, Gaming will also show up, which is a good move because he is one Baffert colt who is not a pace threat to Citizen Bull. But he did turn in another tremendous work Monday, going five fulongs in :59. If The Bull is going to have any pace pressure it would come from Baeza, the recent impressive maiden winner whose early, middle, and late Brisnet figures of 97, 94, and 101 and final speed figure of 98 indicates this is not a horse to be taken lightly and who can maintain a very strong pace throughout the entire race. By comparison, in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, Citizen Bull ran pace figures of 87, 96, and 94, with a final speed figure of 96. Before you feel Citizen Bull’s ownership of the lead might be in jeopardy, he did run 88, 100, and 109 in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and a late pace figure of 107 in the American Pharoah, and he was just coasting on an easy lead in the Lewis, so he obviously can run quite a bit faster. But it would be nice to see if he can rate off the pace before tackling the Kentucky Derby, and Baeza could be the one to give him the opportunity.
4—Barnes (Bob Baffert, Into Mischief – All American Dream, by American Pharoah)
If you judge this horse strictly on his speed figures it raises a very baffling question. How can a horse run a “1 ½” Thoro-Graph number off a “3,” a Beyer figure of 105, and Brisnet early, middle, and late pace figures of 87, 97, and 104 and a 102 final speed figure…and get beat? Either Journalism truly is a budding superstar or Barnes, coming off only two sprints in his life, is such a freak the San Felipe was merely a step up the ladder and no more than a preview of what is to come when he actually has some experience and a foundation under him. How many unraced horses travel across the country for a career debut in a 5 ½-furlong race, then do everything wrong that a green first-time starter can do and still win displaying rare courage and determination? Then in his second start he crushes Bullard by six lengths who was coming off a 4 ¾-length victory in a Grade 3 stakes and likely will be taking on Citizen Bull in the Santa Anita Derby. Because of the rain in Los Angeles that has disrupted the training schedule of many horses and setting them back, Baffert has been holding off on making definitive plans until Barnes and the others worked on Monday. Barnes again delivered with a strong six-furlong drill in 1:11 4/5 in company with the brilliant Cornucopian, who amazingly closed at 15-1 in the Future Wager off one six-furlong maiden victory, albeit a sensational one. As for Baffert’s dccision, nothing has been made definite, but it looks as if he could send Cornucopian to the Arkansas Derby and Madaket Road to the Florida Derby, with several options still open for Barnes. A final decision is expected this week.
5—Coal Battle (Lonnie Briley, Coal Front – Wolfblade, by Midshipman)
Briley appears to be sticking with what works. Two weeks before Coal Battle won the Rebel Stakes he worked five furlongs in 1:02 1/5. Now, two weeks before the Arkansas Derby he worked five furlongs in 1:02. Is there anything you ask this horse to do that he doesn’t do? You want him to take back eight lengths off the pace and make a big run, he does it. You want him on the lead the whole way, he does it. You want him to draw away in the stretch, he does it. You ask him to run down a horse in the final stride, he does it. He not only wins he’ll do it any way you want him to or any way he has to. The only thing he may not be able to do, or shouldn’t be able to do, is win the Kentucky Derby off an unprecedented 10-week layoff and never having been farther than 1 1/16 miles, which Briley has been considering doing, but is still undecided. Yes, he has run in every month since September and has competed in five stakes in four states on fast and muddy dirt tracks and grass, winning four consecutive stakes on dirt, but no horse in modern times has won the Derby off a layoff of more than six weeks. So this may be more important of a decision than Briley realizes.
6—Captain Cook (Rick Dutrow, Practical Joke – Pow Wow Wow, by Indian Charlie)
If there is one trainer who always tells it like it is and never throws any of the standard clichés at you it is Dutrow, so when he says Captain Cook came out of his Withers victory “better than he went in” and talked about what a “cool and calm” horse he is with “no wasted energy and always waits for his cue” that has to boost one’s confidence in him and his high ranking. Dutrow says he’s doing very well and that’s all we need to know right now. I have been around Dutrow long enough to know that he doesn’t spew out undeserved praise on a horse. There seems to be a gap between the top four or five ranked horses and the other Derby hopefuls. But he has checked off enough boxes in his brief career, including having already won a 1 1/8-mile stakes, to suggest he has bright future. Whether he can move forward enough in the Wood Memorial to become a serious threat in the Derby is something we’ll just have to wait to find out. His Brisnet pace figures of 89, 99, and 96 in the Withers and final speed figure of 100 indicates he is a horse with a high cruising speed who can maintain it throughout a nine-furlong race and over a deep track. What also is encouraging is the improvement and professionalism he showed stretching out from seven furlongs when he went too fast early in the mud with a 95 and 103 early and middle pace figures, and even slowing down to an 82 late pace figure he still won by 9 ¼ lengths. But to improve going 1 1/8 miles he needed to reverse those numbers and he pretty much did just that, especially boosting his late pace figure 14 points. So for now we will just heed Dutrow’s words and see where the colt goes from here.
7—Chancer McPatrick (Chad Brown, Mckinzie – Bernardreamy, by Bernardini)
He had an opportunity in the Tampa Bay Derby to emulate the performances of Journalism and Sovereignty by winning his comeback race in spite of not being 100-percent fit. He didn’t accomplish that and as a result many were not exactly enamored with his non-threatening second-place finish to wire-to-wire winner Owen Almighty. I, however, saw enough under the circumstances to actually move him up three spots, and for a number of other reasons. Let’s first look at the belief of many that he is a one-turn closer. I think it is way too early to form that conclusion, especially when it is mostly based on one freakish race at Del Mar prior to having ankle surgery. We are talking about a two-time Grade 1 winner at 2 who has closed like a bullet regardless of the distance — :12 1/5 final eighth in the seven-furlong Hopeful, :24 1/5 final quarter in the one-mile Champagne, and a :24 1/5 and :05 4/5 final quarter and sixteenth in the two-turn Tampa Derby, running close up for the first time with the addition of blinkers. This horse is bred to be anything you want him to be. His sire, who was a Grade 1 winner at 2, 3, and 4 and a Grade 2 winner at 5, won the Grade 1 Malibu Stakes at seven furlongs, was second in the Grade 1 Met Mile, won the Grade 1 Whitney and Pennsylvania Derby at 1 1/8 miles, and was second in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Classic and Santa Anita Handicap at 1 ¼ miles. His broodmare sire, who is red-hot, won the Preakness, Travers, and Jockey Club Gold Cup. His paternal grandsire won the Kentucky Derby and Travers and is by a Dubai World Cup winner, and his female family alone has all three Triple Crown winners of the ‘70s, as well as Spectacular Bid and English Triple Crown winner Nijinsky. If Brown believes he needs blinkers so be it, but his Brisnet late pace figures of 105, 109, and 110 at three different distances (one and two turns) make him the most consistently powerful closer of all the 3-year-olds and I will let his next race determine if he is a one-turn horse.
8—Poster (Eoin Harty, Munnings – Pin Up, by Tapit)
To be honest, there is a fairly significant drop from the top half of the Dozen to the bottom half, which is more about speculation than it is actual accomplishments. That certainly can change after the speculation becomes reality and one or two of these horses or someone knocking on the door steps up big-time in their final prep. We haven’t seen much of this colt since he won the Remsen, and his third in the Sam F. Davis seems like a long time ago, but getting more in focus lately with the huge performance by Owen Almighty in the Tampa Bay Derby. Yes, there is still speculation with him making his all-important final prep on a synthetic track, but he has shown on several occasions he possesses a big turn of foot, kicking into gear quickly, and can stretch out to 1 1/8 miles even after moving prematurely. If you’re still concerned about a son of Munnings staying 10 furlongs it’s understandable, but rest assure his female family is loaded with stamina, especially with his dam sired by Tapit and his inbreeding to Secretariat (and not through Terlingua or Weekend Surprise) and to Fappiano, through his sons Derby and Preakness winner Unbridled and Quiet American, sire of Derby and Preakness winner Real Quiet, and Cara Rafaela, dam of Bernardini. And I love that Harty worked him six furlongs (1:15 1/5). Once you start working that far on synthetic you are really building stamina. He followed that up with a solid five-furlong work in 1:01 3/5, so he is ready. If he runs big in the Jeff Ruby, just remember what Rich Strike and Two Phil’s did in the Derby coming off that race. He could start looking pretty appealing at 69-1 in the Future Wager.
9—American Promise (Wayne Lukas, Justify – Tapella, by Tapit)
You’re traveling through another dimension, a dimension not only of sight and sound but of mind. A journey into a wondrous land whose boundaries are that of imagination. That’s the signpost up ahead – your next stop, the Risen Star Stakes, also known as the Twilight Zone of 2025. With the mystery-shrouded Magnitude gone, so was the bewilderment of his other-worldly victory. Or so we thought. Now comes American Promise, who bounces out of his 13-length drubbing in the Risen Star and emulates the seemingly long-forgotten Magnitude with a Secretaiiat-like perfomance in the Virginia Derby, not only winning by 7 ½ lengths but running fractions (1:08 1/5 and 1:33) and a final time (1:46 2/5) that would make Big Red jealous. Don’t expect any normal analysis of the race or any logical reasons why a horse who took six races to break his maiden and then was out of the money in his two subsequent stakes appearances would demolish his field, running times we haven’t seen in over three decades other than he was drinking from the same trough as Magnitude. What is even more confusing is that this was a lightning fast track and his only career victory came on a deep muddy track. But as a professional I will try to make some sense out of it because in horse racing there is usually a reason for everything. First, his trainer has been pulling rabbits like this out of his cowboy hat since Jimmy Carter was President. He did show big improvement with the addition of blinkers in his fourth start and his best races have been when he has set or pressed the pace. In his one victory his speed figures skyrocketed to a 95 Beyer and a “5” Thoro-Graph number, so he did have that to fall back on. Also, he is a big burly horse who doesn’t have the smoothest action, so he just may have needed time for all the parts to come together. And lastly, he finally ran like a $750,000 yearling by Justify, out of a Tapit is expected to run and was facing a field far below the caliber of horses he had been facing. Did this help explain why he ran such a monster race? Not really. Now he is in no man’s land with seven weeks to the Derby. Does Lukas give him time to get over this race or squeeze in another one with “bounce” written all over it? The reason he wins races like this is because he believes in running them, and unlike other trainers isn’t afraid to lose.
10—Burnham Square (Ian Wilkes, Liam’s Map – Linda, by Scat Daddy)
Nothing to do but sit back and wait for the Blue Grass Stakes to see if he is the horse we saw in the Holy Bull or the one we saw in the Fountain of Youth. Perhaps we will get some idea when we see how Tappan Street, the horse he ran down in the Holy Bull, runs in the Florida Derby against Sovereignty. Tappan Street is the highest rated of all the WinStar 3-year-olds, so that at least could give us some idea. Checking Burnham Square’s Brisnet numbers, they don’t really tell us more than what we’ve already seen. In the Fountain of Youth he ran a slower early pace figure (87 to 81), slower middle pace figure (98 to 94), slower late pace figure (100 to 95), and slower speed figure (101 to 96). The good news is that the Holy Bull figs are so strong we know what he is capable of and the drop-off in the Fountain of Youth was not significant enough to be overly concerned about, and would be solid numbers on their own if we weren’t comparing them to the Holy Bull. The fact that the astute Wilkes can’t wait to get him away from Gulfstream and on a track with a normal stretch says something and gives us reason to believe we could once again see the best version of Burnham Square in the Blue Grass.
11—Sandman (Mark Casse, Tapit – Distorted Music, by Distorted Humor)
He finally returned to the worktab with a solid :49 2/5 half-mile breeze in preparation for the Arkansas Derby, where he hopes to get a clean break and a good pace setup. Since finishing fifth in last year’s Iroquois Stakes, in which he broke slowly, he has finished first, second, and third twice, with his Brisnet speed figures climbing from an 81 to 87 to back-to-back 91’s to 95 in the Rebel, so he is showing steady improvement, but needs to take another step forward. The same can be said about his Thoro-Graph numbers. After taking baby steps in his first five races from a “15” down to a “7,” he paired up a “4 ½” in his first two starts this year, which indicates a significant and much-needed forward move is expected. We know he has developed a powerful stretch kick and was able to recover from a disastrous start and finish a fast-closing second in the Southwest Stakes. And in the Rebel Stakes he was too far back off a fast pace and just had too much ground to make up, finishing third. Now that the prelims are over and the kinks are worked out it is time to prove he can put it all together and go into the Kentucky Derby as a serious threat.
12—Caldera (Wayne Lukas, Liam’s Map – Send Me On My Way, by Tiznow)
Is it unfounded and overthinking on my part to say Caldera didn’t have the best of days Saturday, even just standing in his stall all afternoon? My first illogical bit of thinking is that his trainer made his big splash on the Derby trail a week too soon with American Promise, who absolutely freaked in the Virginia Derby, securing Lukas a place in the Kentucky Derby. What can Caldera do to even come close to that? Can Lukas steal the show two weeks in a row? Of course one has nothing to do with the other, but warped minds think that way. On top of that, his stablemate just annihilated Getaway Car — the horse who beat Caldera a nose last time out. And finally, once an intriguing way under the radar horse who wasn’t even in the last Future Wager field, Caldera is suddenly all over the radar screen, plummeting from 50-1 morning line odds to fifth choice 13-1 and finally drifting up to 17-1. So, with the forces possibly working against him, is he still considered a live horse in the Louisiana Derby and potential Kentucky Derby contender? Of course, and that is why he’s still ranked in the top 12. Sure, you can use Getaway Car’s disappointing Virginia Derby performance as a handicapping gauge, but New Kent is a long way from New Mexico and we already know how formidable Getaway Car was in major races in California. And don’t forget it was Gaming who was being pointed for the Virginia Derby, but spiked a fever forcing Baffert to put Getaway Car on the plane at the last minute, not knowing what a freaky track and performance awaited him. So Caldera’s huge legion of backers and shareholders just have to hope he is ready to take that next big step, and that his trainer’s luck continues.
KNOCKING AT THE DOOR
Now that we have seen what the fifth-place finisher of the wild and wacky Risen Star Stakes, American Promise, did in his next start, which was just as wild and wacky, what can we expect to see from the second, third, and fourth-place finishers – CHUNK OF GOLD, BUILT, and VASSIMO — in Saturday’s Louisiana Derby? All American Promise did was turn a 13-length defeat into a 7 ½-length victory in track record time. I consider all three of these horses to not only be live on Saturday, but in the Kentucky Derby if they can pass this test against far better horses than American Promise crushed in the Virginia Derby.
There are three horses I have been considering for a while as way under the radar sleepers for the Derby, two of them potential breakout horses who could leap into the Top 5 with a huge performance in their next start. Unfortunately, they all are entered in the Louisiana Derby and one of them, thanks in part to the My Racehorse masses, is being bet way down in the Future Wager, and that of course is my No. 12 ranked horse CALDERA, so he certainly is no longer under the radar, which he was when I first featured him after the Sunland Park Derby.
The other horse who could be sitting on that breakout race and who I also have featured is the aforementioned VASSIMO, who gets blinkers and is coming off a terrific five-furlong work in 1:00 4/5 in company, in which he had a powerful gallop-out. He was so lowly regarded he was dropped from the Future Wager, but definitely could make his presence felt at Fair Grounds. The third horse to watch, who will be a big price, is CHUNK OF GOLD, who ran a sneaky-good second in the Risen Star Stakes, showing maneuverability, the willingness to come between horses, and a big closing punch, and could be overlooked. With Caldera likely to be bet down, I feel Vassimo and Chunk of Gold could be enticing win bets at a big price. Boxing the above three with BUILT, who did make a big run at Magnitude and I believe is a lot more talented than his last two races might indicate. He is another interesting bet and I can see him moving up big-time with blinkers. He has gone from 33-1 in pool #3 of the Future Wager to 43-1 to an enticing 56-1 in pool #5. If blinkers help, that will be a hot ticket.
This race looks so wide-open with a number of horses capable of at least picking up second, and we have to add that Kenny McPeek is still very high on HYPNUS after a troubled trip in the Rebel in only his second career start. And is it possible that INSTANT REPLAY can upstage his stablemate JOHN HANCOCK after his impressive allowance victory at Fair Grounds. Can he repeat that performance coming off Lasix?
It is obvious from comments made before and after the Tampa Bay Derby, Brian Lynch believes OWEN ALMIGHTY is more suited for the Pat Day Mile than the Derby and that was where he was being pointed. But we have seen many similar instances when Derby fever hits the owner or owners and they can’t resist reaching for the stars even knowing their horse has a much better chance of winning the Pat Day Mile. But when your horse wins a major prep as impressively as Owen Almighty did you really can’t blame them for chasing a dream that most likely will come only once in their life. I was holding off ranking him simply because of the uncertainty of where he will run and the fact that this year’s Derby field looks to be loaded with classy speed horses who want to be on or near the lead, and Owen Almighty’s stamina is suspect, even by his trainer and one of his owners. Now that he officially is on the trail he can be ranked, but when two of his three connections feel his best races will be around one turn I am not ready at this time to put him in the Top 12.
Although we attempted to make a good case for Chancer McPatrick as a Derby horse, we certainly are not forgetting about his stablemate HILL ROAD, third in the Tampa Derby, who may have needed the race even more than Chancer. I was encouraged by his performance, also with first-time blinkers and a running style that didn’t suit the pace of this race at all. The winner then came home so fast he didn’t stand a chance. My only problem with him is that he has not changed leads in his two starts in this country. That would make him a question mark in the Derby unless he corrects it in his final prep. So keep a close eye on that.
My other take on the race is that the stewards I remember from years ago who ruled with an iron fist would have at least questioned Jose Ortiz, who was riding a pure speed horse in Brodeur, who has shown :45 and change speed, and ask him to explain what his thinking was going into the first turn when instead of engaging his brother on Owen Almighty on the inside he kept his horse out in the four or five path and carried the favorite Patch Adams, who also has brilliant speed and was intending to use it, even wider. As a result, Owen Almighty was able to cut the corner with no one pressuring him and set a dawdling pace over a lightning-fast track. An explanation by Ortiz could have helped the situation and prevented it from becoming a controversial topic, which it was on many of the racing podcasts and social media.
FLOOD ZONE’S Gotham victory has turned into nothing more than a Derby trail tease. When the DRF reported the colt’s Quatari owner has his sights set on the UAE Derby, that likely eliminated him from having any chance of winning on the first Saturday in May. And the word is he may stay there and attempt to become the first 3-year-old to win the Dubai World Cup. As for the Kentucky Derby, it has been proven it takes months to get back to the races after a trip from the U.S. to Dubai for the Derby or World Cup and then back to the States. It’s unfortunate because he looked like a fascinating Derby prospect.
This is the perfect week before the real action starts to play Sherlock Holmes. When I saw EAST AVENUE’S recent bullet five-furlong works in :59 1/5 and 1:00 2/5 and thought of how brilliantly he worked before and after the Risen Star Stakes I just couldn’t accept the fact that he had no excuse for running that badly even though no one close to the horse could come up with one. It’s not as if he wasn’t himself that day for whatever reason and just didn’t run a step. He actually was looking good and running comfortably stalking a 1:10 4/5 three-quarters set by the eventual runaway winner and as soon as he was put under pressure he suddenly stopped running and retreated quickly to the back of the pack. Something had to have happened. So I contacted a noted veterinarian and asked him if a horse can flip his soft palate, blocking his airflow, which could happen under those circumstances, and then have it flip back to normal before it can be detected. His answer was, “Absolutely. They can flip and at some point swallow and put it back to normal just that quickly.”
I am not saying that is what happened. I am merely attempting to come up with a possible reason for such a shocking performance and why none could be found. I am also trying to prepare for anything we might see at Keeneland in the Blue Grass Stakes, right up to the kind of huge performance we saw twice from him last year, one being the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity at the same track. And taking it one step further, which is even farther out there, the stress of a stumble as severe as his at the start of the Breeders’ Cup can also cause that same affliction, and horses have good memories. Even with the stumble he never once attempted to run at any point in the race. But forget that, this is just me thinking out loud trying make some sense of that last race. If he does it again it could be something other than physical. If he doesn’t and runs back to his capabilities, who knows?
Judging by the 190-1 odds on Gotham runner-up SAND DEVIL in the Future Wager, most people feel he is not Derby material. But if this horse can learn to harness his speed and settle off the pace in the Wood Memorial, his distance-oriented pedigree and his Brisnet numbers suggest he could be a gigantic overlay. In the Gotham , his first career defeat, he went head and head on the lead with two other horses, running his early and middle pace figures in a rapid 95 and 101, coming home with a 92 late pace figure. But in his previous start he slowed it down running an early and middle figure of only 80, which enabled him to run a sensational 111 late pace figure. But it must be noted that he did stumble at the start of the Gotham and was rushed up to engage eventual winner Flood Zone and Normandy Coast, so it wasn’t as if he dragged Jose Lzcano to the lead. He worked a half in :49 in company Saturday and really picked it up after the wire by himself with :12 2/5 and :12 1/5 eighths to complete six furlongs in a sharp 1:13 3/5. The bettors may have underestimated this horse. How he controls his speed in the Wood will determine if he is a serious Derby horse.
Is Brad Cox about to unleash a Juddmonte horse no one knows about? It will be interesting to see what FINAL GAMBIT does in the Jeff Ruby coming off a one-mile maiden victory at Turfway, in which he came from the clouds with a powerful late charge to win going away by 2 1/4 lengths. This is a big step up in what has turned into a fascinating race with many possibilities. We’ll see what Battaglia runner-up BABY MAX does with blinkers added and the speedy CHARLIE’S TO BLAME coming off a victory in the Kiitten’s Joy Stakes on grass with Juan Hernandez taking the mount. And remember, Kenny McPeek has been thinking English Derby for the late-running MAXIMUM PROMISE.
With several speed horses apparently headed for the Florida Derby, one of them, NEOEQUOS, a game third in the Fountain of Youth, showed he could be tougher this time by working five furlongs in a blazing :58 4/5, out six furlongs in 1:11 4/5 at Gulfstream under jockey Tyler Gaffalione. In other Florida Derby works, SOVEREIGNTY, not normally a big work horse, went his five furlongs in 1:01 4/5, while the speedy TAPPAN STREET went in 1:00 4/5, both at Payson Park. Todd Pletcher will have to decide between GRANDE and DISRUPTOR , both owned by Mike Repole, wiith RIVER THAMES likely headed for the Blue Grass Stakes. MADAKET ROAD, who would add even more speed, worked a half in a bullet :46 2/5, fastest of 51 works at the distance.
Racing historian, author, and award-winning retired journalist for the Daily Racing Form and The Blood-Horse, Steve Haskin was inducted into the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame’s Media Roll of Honor in 2016. Known for his racing knowledge and insightful prose, he has been an exclusive contributor to Secretariat.com since 2020.
The Kentucky Derby is just around the corner. Don’t miss out on a great hotel room near the track offered by http://www.14sb.com. Let’s go!!!
There is a comment below about the Arkansas Derby field being light on talent. I agree. I also think the same thing about the Florida Derby. I think that there are only five of the ten entrants that could possibly win. And two of the ten entrants are truly embarrassing. I expect both to scratch. They are what I call “field fillers”.
Look what I just did! I have probably put Smoken Boy into the Winner’s Circle. Who????? Exactly.
TD,
The 2024 FL Derby was even more light on talent. But the presence of the Mighty Fierceness was the focus. This didn’t prevent impressive winner Fierceness from being assigned a 1 10 Beyer/Equibase 112 for running against trees. That propelled him to post time favorite in the KD.
KD Finishing positions for the top 3 finishers in the 2024 FL Derby:
Fierceness – 15th by 24L
Grand Mo The First 18th by 37L
Catalytic – 19th by 40 3/4L
What the prospect of the top 3 finishers in the 2025 Fl Derby performing so dismally in the KD?
What’s
When all is said and done, five Into Mischief colts could be the Kentucky Derby starting gate. Those five colts are: Sovereignty, Citizen Bull, Barnes, Cornucopian and Tappan Street. It remains unclear if Chad Brown will enter Praetor in a 100-point Derby race, but judging by his impressive win at GP, going a mile in 1:36.50 and drawing off by 7 1/2 lengths. I would think there’s a strong possibility that he will indeed take a shot with this Into Mischief colt. Stay tuned for Praetor’s next start.
Praetor turned in a bullet work 1/39 yesterday. Time to run.
Rob
Thanks for the update on Praetor’s latest work. I would think Chad Brown would seriously consider the Blue Grass as his next start, but the last I heard, no definitive decision has been made yet. We’ll see.
What you opinion od Praetor stride mechanics?
In his last out AOC win, on March 9th, his stride mechanics looked just fine, IMO. Do you have a different opinion on his stride mechanics?
He does not possess the stride mechanics of a genuine router. Revisit his Sept 27th win over Sovereignty. Focus on his strides in the final furlong and compare it to that of Sovereignty.
One colt has a lot more extension than the other.
Equibase only assigned him an 88 for his return win. They must have assessed it to be little above modest.
“Stride Mechanics”?…..
Not This Time –
Magnitude – Impressive winner of Risen Star 43/1 (Out of KD)
Final Gambit – Impressive winner of the Jeff ruby (in the KD)
It only takes one good one!
For those interested in the last Japanese prep race, the Fukuryu Stakes, search for the race at umanity dot jp or just search for Fukuryu Stakes 2025 being run on March 29 at Nakayama racecourse.
The above website has the race along with sire and dam and damsire of the runners.
Not sure if a Forever Young is within this group but one might decide to attempt the Kentucky Derby.
Hope all is well with you
Cornucopian is just 7-5 on the morning line at Oaklawn. That seems awfully short. Not the best Arkansas Derby field that I’ve ever seen. Steve Asmussen has a horse in there. He seems to have the touch at the moment. A wet track could upset the applecart.
Citizen Bull looked pretty serious in his workout. I wish that I had used him in some of my future exactas.
One horse I reluctantly left out of the last future pool play. So, I take the 7/5 and, if he looks good winning, parlay it into the final pool. Say he’s 6-1 there then it’s like getting 13-1 with the parlay which isn’t much of a discount without the risk from 15-1 in previous pool. It’s goofballs like this horse why I don’t put too much energy into capping the Derby until the finals preps are run.
Has there ever been a last out MSW debut winner of the A K Derby?
Probably not. I do recall Danza was a NW1x after hitting the show pool in two allowance races prior to bombing the tote for the Ark. Cornucopian reminds me a bit of Ark winner Nadal where Baffert ran him in a G2 right after a maiden win, granted that was a 7F affair. I won’t be shocked if the horse quickly dispatches Speed King who seems like quasi-cheap speed going this far, and is four lengths ahead of the rest at the 3/4 pole. Then it’s just a matter of what kind of staying power he has in the final 3/8th before Metallica plays Enter Sandman. This field doesn’t scream G1 class to me so I would not at all be shocked to see a well bred Baffert do it’s thing in second start. To be honest, I hope I either lose my bet or he crawls home. Then one less to deal with in Kentucky.
The Arkansas Derby field doesn’t appear to be very competitive. It appears to be a three-horse race….. Coal Battle, Sandman and Cornucopian. My sleeper for this race, Admiral Dennis who had excuses his last two, did not enter despite having a bullet work this morning in 1:00.80 for 5f (1/22). I guess $1,500,000 isn’t what it used to be. Go figure.
Yeah, my thoughts exactly earlier when stating $3.2 mil isn’t what it once was.
At least it has two graded stakes winners. The Florida Derby has one. The SA Derby will have two. The Wood might not have any. But the Blue Grass….oh my! It could have five graded stakes winners.
Funny enough Dewey, but it’s races like this you sometimes get the most outrageous outcomes and it looks like precipitation is going to play it’s part in the drama.
I think Sovereignty has a good chance to win the Florida Derby but is far from a lock. I think the two closers who ran yesterday are legitimate, CD is good to turf/AW horses and it looks like there might be at least three dedicated front runners in the Kentucky Derby this year. Closers have been doing well in the Derby in recent years.
As for preps, when you already have enough points, I think you still want to win the race or at least perform well, no one is a lock and can’t afford to lose form when some are still trying to set their form, like Journalism for instance. He went back and forth on the track last time, still won by a lot but it was a very small field with no competition other than Barnes. That won’t be the case in the Derby.
Yes, Discopartner, of course they want to win especially as we’re talking about Grade 1 races, the seal of approval to have a chance at stud. As you say, no one is a lock in these races and some are improving faster than others.
Madaket Road looks a real danger to me in the Florida Derby but the interstate transportation from California to Florida is not without it’s negatives. Nonetheless, the surface at Gulfstream looks the perfect setup for Madaket Road.
Agree to that small fields making many look better than they are. None of these California runners are Flightline after all.
I hope Madaket Road runs better than Spielberg did … I believe this would be only the third time Baffert sends a horse to the Florida Derby…
Traveling coast to coast must be taxing as you said…
Nelson, that’s the big unknown here. I probably have a higher opinion of Madaket Road than most on this site but the coast to coast travel is a concern.
Nyquist managed to do it but as you say will lightning strike again from a different source.
Blinkers off!
There’s rarely a lock in horse racing. I’d venture 25% of the time I play a “lock” it gets beat. I won’t put Sovereignty in the lock category either but will probably play him close to it anyway. He looks like the only real late speed in a race full of E and EP types that haven’t shown much interest going 8.5 much less 9. It’s a dream setup on paper if the horse fires again. I expect Junior will have him a little closer than last at the 3/4 pole, assuming Disruptor will be at or very near the engine at that point. Pletcher is dangerous in this event having snagged 7 of the last 11 renewals.
In the Santa Anita Derby Journalism needs only a 4th place to get enough qualifying poinst (47.5+15). Bullard and Baeza have a tough challenge to be first or second in the SA Derby…
Barnes need to be in the Exacta for the Blue Grass (preferably) or SA Derby .
Citizen Bull with his 60 points is the one with the least pressure to win the last prep.
So far there are ten (10) horses already with 50 or more points (Tiztastic, Final Gambit, Chunk of Gold, Coal Battle, Owen Almighty, Citizen Bull, Sovereignty, American Promise, Flood Zone and Flying Mohawk). Flood Zone is doubtful to make it coming back from Dubai.
The following hopefuls are expected to get enough points in the Derby Championship Series: Chancer McPatrick, Captain Cook, Madaket Road, Tappan Street, Hill Road, Sandman, Sand Devil, and Cornucopian.
Burnham Square (30 points) need to finish 3rd or better in the Blue Grass Stakes; and East Avenue (10 points) need a big jump in form to fill the Exacta in that Keeneland marquee.
Built is borderline with 45 points and Getaway Car with 46 points is more a Pat Day type.
Pletcher got his final cards with Disruptor, Grande and River Thames but, as I have iterated, it is a tall order for him this year.
Any new name slamming the Derby doors would be a surprising additon in my view…
There 6 zero pointers in the FLA Derby and five zero pointers in the ARK Derby.
Easily a long a shot can run first or second and get across the 50 point barrier…
Yes Brudder … I will be daringly looking for those possible long shots sneaking into the Trifectas … there must be some runners making big jumps in form (ala Final Gambit) in the next two weeks of the Derby Championship Series…
Not so fast here, Nelson. Shug McGaughey is quietly confident in running Statesman in the Wood Memorial. Statesman comes from the family of Priceless Gem.
Statesman is by Constitution out of Icon Project by Empire Maker. Icon Project won the Grade 1, 10f Personal Ensign. You don’t much better pedigrees these days.
John Hancock was very disappointing for many us here.
When I saw Caldera stumbling at the start and being sandwiched by Built and Chunk of Gold going to the first turn, I was counting on John Hancock taking a comfortable lead; but Built agressive move at the mile pole leaving John H two lengths behind rendered the favorite with no hope to win at that very moment… however, it was good to see that John Hancock came back to pass Built at the end after shifting to the outside …
Anyway, as many had foreseen, the 1 3/16-mile and a long stretch were to benefit the closers this time so much that the only three late-running horses filled the Trifecta… they are the type that could schock the bettors with clean trips and hot paces in front of them… those conditons led to eight of them wining the Derby this Century …
The Turfway race looked like a pace collapse, The Fairgrounds race looked more legit—I think both Beyer’d out mid 90s….we didn’t see the Derby winner yesterday—I expect we will in the next two weeks, Sovereignty and River Thames and Sandman are three I like next week …Journalism after that—Mike McCarthy isn’t working him hard—methinks he might be worried about having run so well—yesterday worked with Endlessly, was not asked—they’re trying to get him to peak in early May—I remember Art Sherman telling me he thought Chrome had peaked “too early”—otherwise he thought he would have won the Triple Crown—preps are just that…preps..
Yes Matthew … the Jeff Ruby with Charlie’s to Blame dashing to the lead and overpowering Innovator early and then California Burrito forcing the pace at the 3/4 made it easier for the two deep closers (Final Gambit and Flying Mohawk).
And yes … the Louisiana Derby seems to be of higher class collectivelly.
I also expect to see the Derby winner next week … after all, 56 Derby winners have emerged from those upcoming five historic Stakes.
At any rate, the next two weeks will be thrilling for all the fans …!
Matthew, I felt sorry for the connections of California Burrito in the Jack Ruby Steaks. California Burrito appeared to be on the verge of setting sail to the line when something distracted the colt and the jockey wisely covered him up. Racing can be such a heartbreaking sport.
Davids he was reported to be jumping tractor tracks.
Read a little bit ago that he came out of the race in good order
Yes, Lynda, I read that as well but during the race my heart sunk in fear of the worst. As you would know, sometimes these brave thoroughbreds overextend to drastic ends. Such good news he is fine.
California Burrito was not going to win, he was part of a 3 way duel which ended predictably, Final Gambit is a closer who took advantage and won going away. There was nothing strange or illegitimate about it. The fact that CB shied at the tire track wasn’t important to the outcome of the race. But “handicappers” will try to argue it was, because they had CB to win. I thought Poster was going to do what FG did, but he was too late.
Matt,
Final Gambit closed from 9 3/4L last to break his maiden over 8F completed in a slow 1:40.80
He closed from 8 3/4L last to win the Jeff Ruby in 1:50.86 b 3 1/2L comfortably. The Mile split was 1:37.91. Equibase figured assigned 96
Final Gambit had to run the 8F of the 9F race approximately 3 or more seconds faster to win.
Rich Strike closed from 8 1/2L, 2nd last to finish 5 1/2L 3rd in the 2022 Ruby. Equibase figure assigned 99. He was considered to be too slow to win the KD, but he did.
Mind That Bird’s win suggest were should always endeavor keep an open mind.
Beyers are meaningless:
Bellamy Road – 120 – 7th
Fierceness – 110 -15th
iz The Law – 109 -2nd
I wouldn’t call Beyers meaningless…they are a measurement—like times…like margins of victory…like works…just measurements, you can use to figure out your picks….I made my opinion—I think we didn’t see the Derby winner on March 22—-not sure that means I have a closed mind—ya gotta boil things down, to come up with a pick—I was more impressed with Tiztastic—I think there are better horses in upcoming preps..
I share your disappointment, Nelson. I was hoping that Brad Cox would try to teach John Hancock to rate. As I feared, John Hancock received pressure before the far turn and could not sustain his lead. As you said, he did fight back to gain 4th place, yet Built may have been the more tired of the two.
John Hancock is one to keep an eye on. I still expect that he has a bright future and will be successfut in graded stakes down the road with more seasoning.
Yes Dewey … after comparing the split times for the first 6 furlongs of the New Orleans Classic and the Fair Grounds Oaks to those of the Louisiana Derby I can say that the early tempo marked by John Hancock was really fast. In fact the other horses attempting to challenge John till the first 3/4-mile pole could barely finish the race …
I agree John Hancock will mature into a great runner down the road…
Nelson, I wasn’t disappointed with John Hancock I felt the connections overstretched by asking too much going the distance of the Louisiana Derby. However, with that said, Elliott Walden indicated that, at the time, if John Hancock didn’t win either the Virginia Derby or the Louisiana Derby, whichever he went into, he didn’t deserve to be in the Kentucky Derby.
I was disappointed John Hancock didn’t run in the Virginia Derby instead of the Louisiana Derby but the connections thought the extra week would be more beneficial for John Hancock.
All things considered, it’s best for John Hancock that he’s not in the Kentucky Derby.
PS: “he didn’t deserve to be in the Kentucky Derby if he didn’t win his final prep.” Sometimes the mind, is going too fast for the fingers. Ha ha
I agree that the VA Derby was the better option.
China Horse Club, the owners, are in it to won it.
From what I have read the CHC had a racing manager who calls the shots
If true Walden was just parroting the race manager.
Lynda, I think you are exactly right. Elliott Walden in a subtle way was emphasizing the Virginia Derby in the discussion but may have been overruled. The prize money won over…
what if he had finished 2nd? Would he still be underserving?
Seeing him not making the grade is the disappointing part … I would have run him in the Tampa Bay Derby … He could have bested Owen Almighty again…
Anyway, I also think skipping the Derby would be better for him down the road …
Yes Nelson, skipping the Derby is the best result really. They may go for the Preakness Stakes as an alternative but there are other races down the track.
With five Championship series events that have 200 qualification points to offer its about time we look into what will be the cutoff in terms of qualifying for a start.
The cutoff seems to be very close this year to 50 points for the 18 US based horses.
This is without the withdrawals that almost certain to happen as we get to the date of the race.
Even if that is the case then Flood Zone (50 points), Flying Mohawk (50 points) may not be enough because their earnings may not be enough. Journalism (47.5) will hopefully pickup points in the Santa Anita Derby but Getaway Car (46) and Built (45) maybe looking on the outside.
Early On is entered in the Gulfstream Park Oaks next Saturday just 2 weeks after finishing second to a long gone Fondly at Colonial. It didn’t look like she had to run that hard in Virginia. Maybe she can pull it off. One of three for Saffie Joseph. The Queen’s MG and Paradise City being the others.
Just nine for the Arkansas Derby. BB sending only Cornucopian.
What an exciting win for Tiztastic in the Lousiana Derby!! What a great day for his sire Tiz The Law and his great grandsire, Tiznow!! Tiznow is a descendent of the beloved Man o’ War who comes from Goldolphin Arabian lineage. And I am pleased for the dam sire, Tapit, as well.
I am so happy for Team Tiztastic including jockey Joel Rosario and trainer Steve Asmussen.
This is going to be some Derby this year.
I agree 100%. I might add that experience matters. Tiztastic had a lots of races under his belt and ability only goes so far without learning how to run and win. The other clear issue is that a lot of hot runners do not have stamina bred into them. Many become flashes in the pan when it is clear that they cannot compete at longer distances. What is not to love about a double Tapit.
Thanks William D. Excuse me if I was unclear. Tapit is the broodmare sire of Tiztastic. And Seattle Slew is the broodmare sire of Tiznow. Plenty of stamina from both.
And I love it that Man ‘o War’s lineage is continuing.
It looks like it will be an exciting Kentucky Derby this year.
Exactly Terri, the ownership of Coolmore and Winchell almost ensures Tiztastic will get a chance at stud. Even better should Tiztastic garner a Grade 1 win.
Thanks Davids. It certainly makes sense.
Oops, The dam sire of Tiztastic is Tapit. And the dam sire of Tiznow is Seattle Slew.
Dam sire of Tiz the Law was Tiznow so he’s in Tiztastic’s bloodlines, just a generation back.
Terri I am equally pleased!
I had a friend who passed who loved Tiz The Law. I know she is smiling up in heaven.
CORUCOPIAN is running in the Arkansas Derby
ooops. CORNUCOPIAN
I know he’s a good horse—Taiba went from maiden to SA Derby win—so it can be done—I wouldn’t bet on it, though. Sandman will get my money…
Cornucopian was made the 7-5 ML favorite. Maybe it’s a good prediction of what the public will do, considering it’s BB. But 7-5 on a 6f debut maiden winner is ridiculously low for a 9f G1 final derby prep. Coal Battle justly deserves favoritism. He’s on a four-race win streak, and Tiztastic’s victory cannot be ignored.
A word to the wise: Rodriguez—who was beat more than ten lengths, in the San Felioe—is a horse not to be dismissed! Wherever he turns up—Rodriguez is a runner, a talented runner!..
They removed blinkers for his last two works and he has responded—I hear he outworked Barnes today.
Happy Sunday all.
Beautiful day here in Georgia.
Possible that Godolphin might win the double this year(Derby and Oaks).
Good Cheer (by MDO) continued her win streak at the Fairgrounds on Saturday.
Davids, saw a photo of the Equinox foal out of Midnight Bisou.
Not known of course how they will perform on the track but if these photos of his foals ate any indication, many will be successful.
Congratulations to all the winners yesterday.
I mistakenly thought John Hancock had the race in the bag. Not convinced at this point he wants the distance.
Hi Lynda, thanks for heads up on the Equinox – Midnight Bisou foal. Fingers crossed. Wootton Bassett, Too Darn Hot, Siyouni are really stamping themselves as major influences in Australia which is a positive. The Australian turf sprinters are unequal but the middle distance brigade is a bit patchy but Via Sistina is outstanding here with another Group 1 on the weekend.
I am so excited to get any news of Midnight Bisou! I loved her, and was so sad to see her sold overseas. Thanks, Lynda!
Did you see reports on the Oscar Performance twin fillies? Broodmare Kona Kai is taking care of them both! I was sure they’d need a nurse mare, if they both lived.
Yes!
It is very rare that twins survive and even more rare that the mare has enough milk for both.
Their barn names are Mary Kate and Ashley if you remember the TV series Full House.
They went home yesterday.
Just the cutest ever and seem to be so healthy.
Did you see the video of them playing in the stall?
Made my day.
Well a $2500 purchase is in The Derby! (Chunk of Gold)…Next week we’ll know a lot more–Gulfstream has some good horses—Gulfstream…where many Derby horses have emerged from—might be gone in a few years…Father was a Horse Racing magnate—Daughter wants to be a casino magnate….
Matthew, that’s why sometimes the eye roll from me when some gush over ‘blue blood’ purchases that sometimes doesn’t pan out.
Face it MOST don’t pan out! Look at the size of the books, for Into Mischief—a small percentage become graded stakes winners, fewer become gr1 winners and even fewer become Classic winners—Bob ended up with Barnes, but there were others that were bidding for him—and it is interesting…..I also love the Chromes, “diamonds in the rough”, so to speak—tiny “chunks of gold”….
I just checked, Poster is 18th on the Kentucky Derby points standings with 31. Precarious to say the least. The only way he makes it is if some horses drop out. Maybe trying the synthetic track wasn’t the right move. The Preakness isn’t so bad. The connections can get some crabcakes and catch an Orioles game at Camben yards while they are in town.
Florida and Arkansas next week. Maybe we’ll get to see some actual Derby contenders.
I’m angry at myself for going down with Built. A horse that I have never liked. I’ve definitely seen enough of him. During the week I was all over the place but never considered Tiztastic after losing on him in the Rebel. It goes that way sometimes.
Poster ran a strange race at Turfway. Moved up on the backstretch, fell back on the far turn, and came on again in the stretch to get 4th. Enough points? IDK.
Did Sierra Leone “bounce” off of that 112 BSF that he posted in the Breeders Cup almost 5 months ago? Obviously, I’m joking. But I wouldn’t be surprised if he never runs a number like that again. They might have gotten to the bottom of him at Del Mar. He needs more pace. The top 2 runners ran that way all the way around the track.
Good Cheer made it to 6 for 6. But she doesn’t “WOW” me. Maybe it’s her grinding style. Not a quick turn of foot. I can see why people are already lining up to bet against her in the Kentucky Oaks. It could be a weak year for that division.
Agree, none of the horses yesterday are a serious threat for the KD!
I wouldn’t discount Tiztastic, he’s a deep closer and the pace was hot and likely will be in the Derby. He can get the distance and there’s only Sovereignty and Final Gambit in the deep closer lane, and Sovereignty still has to prove his distance ability as do most of the others. So for now, he and Final Gambit are contenders, in my book.
Forgot closer Sandman who will be tested next Saturday.
The Louisiana contingent has been excellent at spoiling vertical gimmicks in the Derby over the last 15 years. Perhaps they won’t win, but I wouldn’t toss them from a trifecta play.
Final Gambit reminded me of Animal Kingdom when he won the Spiral. He was flying down the stretch and he’s bred to go a mile and a quarter. To go seven wide and close so much ground takes a special horse. To me, that was the most impressive Derby prep so far.
And they say that turf and AW horses do well at Churchill Downs.
Bill,
Should I be excited? Final Gambit and Chunk Of Gold are in my All-Others wager. Both have enough points to make the cut.
Add Flood Zone and I have 3 entrants. There is there is the prospect of more.
I am just having some fun with my first wager on All Others.
Congrats to those who had Tiztaztic. Does his win elevate Coal Battle to #4?
Hi steve
Go Gun Runner Colt Disruptive !
Solid work prior to Fla Derby… lightly raced I know your thoughts .. have been following your expertise for years. He’s in Derby with a secound … let’s see what he can do.
“Disruptor”😰…
Have a 40/1 future bet on him in pool 5… $200 bet👍
Poster and Caldera will be displaced from the ranking by Tiztastic and Juddmonte’s Final Gambit… but they will likely be in the “second tier”…
Final Gambit was an example of assigned past speed figures being rather misleading…!
Nelson, both Poster and Caldera may be on the outside looking in, points-wise. But as we all know, last minute additions DO happen.
Caldera with a mere 10 points will not make the KY Derby Field. He did however give a thrill for a moment to a few here who own shares. Always exciting to have those Derby dreams.
Entering Poster on the AW track will likely be seen as a big mistake.
I get what you’re saying Nelson, but that speed figure was representative of that slow mile maiden breaker he ran too.
David, AP Kid – who I’ve mentioned before- is definitely a turf horse! He was very impressive breaking his maiden today ..fast time, too
He’s a gorgeous horse!
Yes, Betsy, I watched the win. Gorgeous colt, they paid quite a bit for him. His initial race was very disappointing but today, all smiles. A good omen for the UAE Derby?
Are you getting nervous, excited?
Looking forward to seeing where he goes next! 12-1 ML bet down to 5-2, so they knew…
I hope so! At least it won’t be a monster sized field, lol
Both! Incredibly excited – and I’m adding days in Edinburgh, so I’m thrilled about that
I’m a bit nervous because 3 months is a long time….but that’s natural
Time really flies..
That’s wonderful, Betsy. Edinburgh is quite centralized so you can walk around the historic area relatively quickly, it is just magnificently beautiful.
David, it’s a beautiful city. When I was there, it was for a brief time after a few days in Glasgow and a 5 day Highlands tour, so I was tired, and wasn’t at my best in Edinburgh. This time, that won’t be an issue – I’m so excited!
Betsy, when I first visited Edinburgh with friends we traced all the parts of the film “The Prime of Miss Jean Brodie” had been set. It was magical.
Don’t want to be an “I told you so”, but I gently suggested that Tiztastic was going to be in the top 2 or 3. Would have made some money for ya. 😉 Thinking that he has the most points now at 119. Big field today was kinda like the KD. Now all he has to do is to take on the top two on the list. Thinking that he should be #3 on this list next week. Down the road we can talk about who can use his inbreeding for out crosses. He is also going to make Tiz The Law look like a real good sire. Bet ya down the road they put him back on grass.
I get why they felt they had to try the Derby trail with him, but I would like to see him back on grass eventually.
Tiz the Law has so many of his better runners from last year still missing in action. Tiz the Law has a gelding in the UK – Micheal Schofield, unbeaten twice.
Yeah, no works yet for Scythian or Non-Compliant. Out on Bail has been working steadily so should see him soon.
Yes, Janis, I’ve been waiting on Out on Bail to make a start this year.
Cloe just won a turf sprint stakes at Gulfstream, 5f in 54.83 so that’s something.
Yes, Janis, another stakes win for Tiz the Law, he is siring of good turf runners. I’m hoping Coolmore gives him a chance with some of their top line European broodmares.
Tiz the Law should go from strength to strength as the crop size has doubled from his initial crop. They always try which is all you can hope for.
Great call, William D.
I recall your post to me stating, “don’t sleep on Tiztastic”.
It appears Steve Asmussen has his Derby horse.
Welcome for sure. I am not 100% confident about his winning the KD, but the Belmont for sure. His double on Tapit should get the distance and more. Nice mix with Tiznow. How funny would it be for him to win the Breeders Cup Turf race.
What sloppy breaks in both points races today!
Two really enjoyable races for the Kentucky Derby prospects (and a nice upset in the N.O. Classic; congratulations to Bill Dawson on his pick of Touchuponastar). I have liked Tiztastic all year, but have to admit I didn’t see that coming. Thrilled that he won, and thrilled that he sends Steve Asmussen back to the Derby with a real shot if he gets the expected hot pace.
And talk about longshots! Steve tipped Final Gambit (who was knocked off his feet by one of the favorites in the Ruby, California Burrito, breaking from the gate) and then came from the clouds to win. Now we have to take newcomers like Final Gambit, Flying Mohawk and Chunk of Gold seriously — because they’re all probably going to the Derby.
That WAS fun, especially considering that I was wrong repeatedly!
I thought Final Gambit’s chances were nil after California Burrito veered and checked him at the start! I was wrong. He has my attention. As a Not This Time son, I don’t need a lot of convincing to get behind this horse. Twenty years on, could he be the Giacomo to my Afleet Alex (aka, Coal Battle)?
California Burrito appeared to shy at a shadow in the stretch. He had a flaky day. Hope he is OK.
I also really liked Tiztastic, but kept thinking they ought to go back to the turf. WRONG! For a big colt, he looks light over the track – easy on himself. My husband picked him today, and was thrilled!
By comparison, Chunk of Gold has more of that pounding, get into the track, downhill type action, but how cool is his story?! I’m so happy for the horse and connections. I also like his unfashionable pedigree: a real Holy Bull connection on the damside, and I love Arch!
I know! But wrong in such a good way.
Yes Ms. Blacktype, guessing 3.2 mil for a horse doesn’t buy as much as before.
Yeah, how about that Chunk of Gold. With three consecutive seconds, he should be Chunk of Silver!
LOL. Maybe that’s a good tip to bet him to place in the Derby.
Happy to see Asmussen/Rosario partnership being successful in the Derby trail… Joel Rosario might have found his Derby ticket with the son of Tiz the Law… Good day for the closers today…
Tiz who? Tiztastic won the Louisiana Derby with authority by 2 1/4 lengths. “Sleepy Joel” Rosario waited for his Derby mount and the wait paid off today riding Tiztastic for Steve Asmussen. His odds today were 7.50 – 1. Tiztastic’s odds in Pool 5 of the KDFW are 119.20 – 1. Woo hoo!
Dewey, I am so bug eyed from watching all the races at Rosehill and Moonee Valley yesterday – absolutely outstanding racing – and the US this morning. Watching Tiztastic take command just topped off a great weekend of racing. Woo hoo, indeed!!
Davids, how do you find time to sleep, ha, ha! Please clarify a question I have on time zones. When you watch a 6:00 pm. EST race in the U.S., is it 4:00 am. your time? I seem to remember you once said there’s a 14 hour difference between EST and Australia.
To clarify…. 4:00 pm. the same day?
er, 4:00 am.
Dewey, this is probably the easiest time comparison.
6 pm New York time Saturday night would be 9 am Sunday morning Melbourne time. Times change with daylight savings. I use the DRF as they have all races at EST.
US racing is fine with me as I get up relatively early in the morning. European racing is hard though as the major races usually start around 1 am in the morning.
Thanks for the time zone clarification, Davids. Your time is 13 – 14 hrs forward, not backward. I seem to always get things backwards, ha, ha!
Looking forward to the Arkansas Derby. It could potentially be the best prep of the year so far. A good field is anticipated and I’m hoping Sandman is ready for a big effort. My sleeper is Admiral Dennis. He’s had excuses and with a clean trip he should be in the picture.
Have a good day, mate!
Dewey, with the time zones be careful because they vary throughout the year with daylight savings being introduced and taken away.
Taking the New York 6pm on a Saturday as an example. It could be 9 am in Melbourne as of now. However, it could be 10 am as it was a few weeks back or 8 am or 7 am. Sounds funny, but it happens.
Yes, I’m hoping Sandman and Coal Battle perform well in the Arkansas Derby but Admiral Dennis will need time, he was so promising early on.
Congratulations Dewey. His great grandsire, Tiznow, is a descendent of the great Man ‘o War.
Tiztastic wins the Louisiana Derby. Dewey, we waited and he wins. Ha ha
We waited, Davids. But it’s not me who waited for Tiztastic. I’m waiting for Sandman like yourself.
Sorry Dewey, it was Jerry, now Sandman has to come to the fore in the Arkansas Derby.
Separating pretenders from contenders. Keep your impressive maiden winners and give me a horse that has been around the track multiple times – and advancing at the end of those races, because it’s a tough mile and a quarter in the Derby. Rosario did a nice job.
Joel Rosario is one of my favorite filly riders because of his ability to finesse rides. Great trip today!
Yes, Jerry, Tiztastic has had some difficult trips to contend with previously but Joel Rosario gave him a beautiful smooth trip, none of the stop start, in out type of rides given by previous jockeys.
No way he prevails in Derby.
Did you read that in your tea leaves or through a crystal ball? Ha ha
Anything can happen in racing but predicting the future of a race a month and a few weeks out is simply absurd but good luck with whatever horse is your favourite.
Hope he wins for you whoever you like.
Sorry, Jerry, I meant you not Dewey. As I wrote earlier, the addition of a top line jockey would make all the difference for Tiztastic, Joel Rosario take a bow.
Davids, stated fifteen yrs ago Asmussen will never prevail for 1st Saturday in May. How am I doing so far?
Mike, I’m curious why you think Asmussen will never win one. Could you explain?
Have no issue with the horse or ANY horse. My issue is with the trainer and his side kick.Not on my hit parade. There’s my answer, you’re welcome!
His less than stellar reputation and his record-breaking career performance are very different things. A trainer could be the most dishonest trainer in the history of the world yet be successful with his runners.
Point is I do not like him……period.
Good to know, Mike.
The Jeff Ruby Steaks could yield nice payouts if my longshot Charlie’s to Blame lives up to his excellent turf performances from coast to coast… The son of Blame was 15/1 in the ML but he is currently at 8/1… so, the public is showing confidence in his proven speed …
My $40- Superfecta reads as follows:
2-Charlie’s to Blame/9-Poster
2-Charlie’s to Blame/9-Poster
5-Flying Mohawk 8-Innovator 10-Maximum Promise 12-He’s Not Jocking
5-Flying Mohawk 8-Innovator 10-Maximum Promise 12-He’s Not Jocking/4-Final Gambit/3-California Burrito
Congratulations are in order to Bill Dawson for his confidence in Touchuponastar to dominate the New Orleans field gate to wire…!
I hope you keep hot for the rest of the card…!
Thanks for the shoutout, Nelson
Unfortunately, I didn’t use Touchuponastar in my Pick 4 wager.
As I mentioned in an earlier post, Sierra Leone’s current form could be suspect, and sure enough he failed to fire. Had I keyed Touchuponastar with Sierra Leone in the first leg of the PK 4, I would have nailed it. I hit the last three legs of the PK 4 by using ALL in the 10th race, singled Good Cheer in the 11th race and used ALL in the 12th race.
9th) Sierra Leone
10th) ALL
11th) Good Cheer
12th) ALL
That ticket cost $60.00 dollars. Had I included Touch, it would have jumped to $120.00 which was beyond my budget for that race.
The Pick 4 paid $8,100.00.
Yes, I know, Coulda, Woulda, Shoulda.
It will be another chance dow the road..my superfectas were all upside down…my pacesetters all failed …speed ratings were deceiving this time..
The New Orleans Classic lost half of its field but the Louisiana Derby, on the other hand, keeps its field of 10 and its betting appeal.
As we get closer to the one-million-dollar Derby prep I realize I was overthinking how to approach its handicapping…
I’m trying to make it simpler by assuming that when there is a bunch of horses that like to run with (in) the pack I’s d rather go for the ones that thrive and love to lead the charge.
I believe that John Hancock and Caldera best fit that view.
John Hancock proved at Tampa that he not only owns superior speed but also he is a very tough fighter. Winnining gamely against two very good horses (Owen Almighty and Remsen victor Poster) coming off a 6-furlong maiden win and going two turns for the first time is nothing short of exceptional.
The well-made son of Constitution will be again enjoying a rail trip with Flavien Prat who is at a peak in his career.
I trust John Hancock will be able to navigate the extra furlong successfuly … You may think his maternal family is speed ladden by seing Freud as his damsire. However, if you see in his 4th generation With Approval (a brilliant Stayer at the highest levels) and Lord at War , Grade 1 winner at 10-furlongs; and Halo in his 5th generation, you may agree that there is some staying power there…
As for Caldera, he also got a good stamina dosage in his female family (Tiznow, Bernardini)… Caldera and the incredible Flightline share Finder’s Fee as their third dam … that might be something down the road!
I am going for a Superfecta using Bill Dawson’s favorite formula:
1-John Hancock/5-Caldera
1-John Hancock/5-Caldera
6-Built/7-Vassimo/9-Instant Reply/10-Hypnus
6-Built/7-Vassimo/9-Instant Reply/10-Hypnus/2-Chunk of Gold/3-Tiztastic
Good luck and safe trip to all.
For the Florida Derby, Sovereignty gets the outside (#10) post as the 8-5 ML favorite. Baffert sends Madaket Road (#8), the 7-2 second choice. Disruptor (#4) is 4-1 and Tappan Street (#9) is 5-1.
Built, JH 1,2.
Agree about Built. He’s the closest one in this field to being a graded stakes winner. I got him at 56-1 in the last KDFW, so I’m hoping for a big effort. I won’t be disappointed with a good second.
With all the scratches in the New Orleans Classic, can Touchuponastar get loose on the lead? Chad Brown doesn’t have a “rabbit” in the race to set things up for Sierra Leone, but the owners might with Hall of Fame.
Five scratches leave just a field of five.
It’s a bummer to see the race lose so many. Seems like today would have been the day to take SL on, off of his break. (But I don’t know the circumstances of the the scratches.)
Sierra Leone is 1 to 9 right now… In theory the champion will have a clean path to exercise his patented mighty rally in the homestretch … As you said, it would be interesting to see if Hall of Fame is able to steal SL thunder in 15 minutes from now…
INNOVATOR in the Jeff Ruby.
In the Louisiana Derby, going with BUILT.
Innovator is interesting. His sire’s best surface so far is AW, with a 13% win percentage.
In all honesty, I for sure thought he would inherit a lonely lead to control the pace. Wasn’t happening evidently, yep, Charlie is
To Blame.
Ha! Yes, that was it!
Godolphin has potentially 6 starters at Turfway Park. It could be a good day for the boys in blue.
I particularly like Golden Sunshine a Medaglia D’ Oro filly out of a Dubawi mare.
RIP George Foreman.
Yes. A fine person who will certainly be missed.
George Foreman, Ali and Joe Frasier, the greatest boxers of my generation (in my opinion).
Actually met George Foreman at an Eat, Meet and Greet at the food company I eas working for years ago. In addition to being a great athlete, he was a very honorable man.
Those were the best of times in sports…horse racing, baseball, boxing and the early days of Pro Football (Broadway Joe and the Jets).
My how times have changed.
Maybe Kohn Jancock will get his signature win….(I know, but it was there…)..
John Hancock! Leave it to a half blind guy to ruin the joke!
Good one, nevertheless.
It was still funny, and we all knew who you meant.
You got a smile out of me, Matthew. God bless you!
If John Hancock wins the LA Derby, it would make my day. It all depends on how the pace unfolds and whether Flavien Prat is able to give him a breather on the backstretch.
Matthew
It’s actually funnier to me this way .
Chris
ChrisL and Matthew, me too!
My Dad likes to watch old episodes of Perry Mason, and they often feature budget actors who sort of looked like big movie stars. I’ll walk in and see what’s on, and Dad will say “Stick around, this one has Bumphrey Hogart!” Or I’ll say, “Wow, it’s Saul Shuman!” or “Maudey Pepburn!” So it made me think of our running gag, and was even funnier.
Too funny!
Tee hee!
Futures update at William Hill:
Journalism +650
Citizen Bull +750
Sovereignty +800
Barnes, Cornucopian +1200
Journalism now +550
TIZTASTIC –
MSW (Chancer McPatrick #7) 5th by 53/4L
Street Sense (Sovereignty J#1) 2ndby 5L (Sandman #11 – 3rd)
Kentucky Jockey Club (First Mission OKDT) 3rd by 4L
Southwest (Speed King) 3rd by 2 1/2L
Rebel (Coal Battle #5) 5th by 6 1/2L
NB: Defeated Coal Battle by 6L in the $1M Kentucky Downs Juvenile. (Turf)
No other entrant in the LA Derby field has race against the caliber of opponents that Tiztastic has matched strides against.
He is inbred 2×3 to stamina powerhouse Tapit. That should make the distance of 91/2F well within his competitive capability.
Tiztastic appears to be the entrant to beat?
My concern about Tiz is that, in the closer’s second race after a layoff, he finally got the advantage of a quick early pace and didn’t improve. Still a contender, though.
I certainly hope that you put your $ down. Nice call.
I had a wager on the colt.
He sure looked good today, Counter Point! Nice one!
One other Thoro-graph item. Hypnus has only run twice but his 5 1/2 in his career debut was huge for a first time starter and in the slop. Forget his 10 last out. He was eligible to regress and had a horrible trip. He should bounce back with a top effort. Several of these horses who aren’t among the contenders are capable of a breakout race. Makes for an Intriguing race.
The La Derby is a wonderful and challenging betting race. I’ve narrowed the field to 7 contenders. :))
But, a race without any in the money finishers in May, right?
Different propositions, Mike.
I’m betting Hypnus …also like Hall of Fame….
Per trainer, Coal Battle 99% will start in Arkansas Derby (just posted on other site)… Good news that he will have 1 1/8 mile race before Derby.
biggy312, this news made my day!
Mine too Katy!
I always thought he would, he raced 3-4 weeks apart in the fall.
Indeed, and that has been working well.
What an excruciating balancing act: managing a colt’s mind and energy level, and not wearing him out or peaking too early. Not a task for the faint of heart!
Agreed.
RE: New Orleans Classic Stakes
All eyes will be on Sierra Leone, the heavy favorite in referenced race. However, having not raced in over four months, his current form could be suspect. In twenty career starts, Touchuponastar has never finished out of the money, (20: 14-4-2). By Star Guitar, out of a Lion Heart mare, he could give Sierra Leone all he can handle.
That said, I’ll key Sierra Leone and Touchuponastar in the first two slots, with Hall of Fame, Tarantino, Komorebino Omoide underneath in the 3rd and 4th slots.
That is: 5,7/ 5,7/ 2,8,9,10/ 2,8,9,10
Safe trips to all.
Edit, #10 is Bishops Bay
The only grade 1 winner in the field is Sierra Leone. The others a re way outclassed. If he fails to win, it shows that the choice for 3 year old champ was false.
Why?
Agreed…WHY? I’ve seen many horses lose their seasonal debut races, Sierra had a terrific year, blasted home at Del Mar and ran lights out in the Derby….
Not to mention that the 3-Year-Old Award is for the race record as a THREE-year-old with no consideration of 2yo performance or future performance.
In case you didn’t notice, he’s not 3 anymore. The Eclipse for 3YO male champion only includes what they did as a 3YO. Not at 2, and not at 4. He was the most accomplished 3YO and got the award. Hope this helps.
Burden must be huge ‘Maiya’ being smartest human on the planet.
I stand to be corrected of course but as of today Bob Baffert only has 2 colts of the 4, possibly 5 trainees being pointed to the Derby being reasonably assured of a gate in the Kentucky Derby.
Guess I am just not understanding why he is holding back for the 100 point races to qualify3.
I am not questioning his program but am curious as to why he does this.
Maybe I have missed something along the way either in your columns Steve or on other racing sites.
It just seems like he is taking a big gamble or am I wrong?
I don’t know why you think he’s taking a gamble. He has his prospects nominated to multiple races. He’ll enter them where he thinks they are most suited. If they don’t earn enough points for the derby, then so be it. They’ll get the opportunity. And BB does not need to tell us or anyone else anything. As to why he’s not forthcoming to the racing press or the public…who knows? Why has he been so sloppy in his care of horses? All that matters for the Ky Derby is where the horses are entered for the preps, and we’ll know that within a week of the race dates.
Looking at the Thoro-graph numbers for the Louisiana Derby the horse who stands out to me based on his pattern is Built. After a 12 3/4 and an 8 he made a monster jump to a 2 3/4 romping in the Gun Runner. That is a huge number for that early. A combination of a heavy sloppy track and being stuck down on the inside and a bounce off that big race resulted in a regression to a 8 1/4. With him then jumping back to a 3 1/2 in the Risen Star on a fast track and having that 2 3/4 to fall back on he should make another jump forward. If he does it will take a big effort to beat him. The only horse who has run close to his numbers is Caldera and it’s just a question if he will bounce off the Sunland slugfest and his big jump as Getaway Car did last week.
Chunk of Gold also is a question mark after his big .move from an 11 1/2 on synthetic to a 5 on dirt. If he should move forward off that big move he is a serious horse. But he is still a guess which direction he will go.
Good observations Steve, will definitely take this into consideration when doing my handicapping on this race. You have given me more reinforcement for Built.
Hi Steve
Thank you for providing those Thoro-Graph numbers on Built, who looked super impressive in his Gun Runner Stakes win. The horse that I landed on, in the Louisiana Derby, is Instant Replay. If you could provide his Thoro-Graph numbers, it would be much appreciated. His 95 late pace figure is the highest in the field, and the long stretch at the Fair Grounds should be of benefit to his closing style.
Thanks, Steve.
15…17 3/4…9….11 1/2…5 1/4. That big jump the Sheets guys would call a Lasix top. It was first time Lasix and now he comes off it. Sometimes it’s more about improvement but most time the Sheets guys will stay away until he duplicates it without Lasix. So he’s a guess and it’s up to you whether to back him or not.
It wasn’t the improvement that makes them back off it was the dramatic improvement. That’s a huge jump and even if it wast Lasix Induced there is also the fear of a bounce. You’ll have to decide. I watched the race and it was pretty spectacular so who knows.
Thanks for the reply, Steve.
Instant Replay’s Thoro-Graph numbers are certainly moving in the right direction. He ran without Lasix, three races back, going a mile in 1:36.26, drawing off by 8 3/4 lengths for the win, so it remains to be seen how he’ll perform without this time.
I like Chunk of Gold and also Vassimo for a price. I gave my 4 horse box. In KOTD. CHUnk of gold Intriguies me
Nice, Steve! 2nd twice to the Asmussen Army ought to get him the points he needs!
Not trying to sway anybodies thoughts here but someone pointed out to me that there may be a sleeper in the Jeff Ruby Stakes…. Of his $120k of earning $110k has come from running on “all weather” surfaces 4 races 2w 1p & 1s. His name is ….
He’s Not Joking…. 15 /1 ML won’t bet the house on him but will take a flyer on him.
Will be rooting for him and Maximum Promise !!!!
On another thought…. for Owen Almighty the Blue Grass Stakes will be a great prep race for him regardless if he runs in the KD or the Pat Day Mile.
Charlie’s to Blame if your selections are beaten.
I noticed Charlie’s to Blame in January—really liked his work one morning, over the synthetic at Santa Anita—he’s a big colt that moves nicely….I notice there is other speed in the race—race flow may not favor him, and I don’t think he has actually raced on synthetic—-I like the colt! Playing him across the board—he is one who I have kept an eye on….
Taking a flyer on Flying Mohawk / He’s Not Joking & Charlies to Blame…tri box all 15/1 ml.
Only 5 to 7 horses of the ten that are entered are expected to start in Saturday’s $500k New Orleans Classic featuring Sierra Leone. He is 7-5 on the morning line but looks odds-on to me.
Good Cheer in the Fair Grounds Oaks is 4-5 on the morning line and looks certain to go off lower than that. Noted horseracing personality and handicapper Ed DeRosa is on record as saying that he would like to book all bets on Good Cheer in the Kentucky Oaks. 5 for 5 apparently hasn’t impressed him. One of our very best posters says that it’s a weak division. Maybe. But I think that if Good Cheer wins again on Saturday to go six for six, she could go off as the lowest priced favorite in the Kentucky Oaks since Rachel Alexandra in 2009. Only six showed up to face “Rachel” in that 2009 Kentucky Oaks when she paid $2.60 to win. I just watched a replay of that race, and it is still as exciting as the day it was run. Rachel Alexandra was electrifying that day. So good that jockey Calvin Borel jumped off of his Derby Winner to ride her in the next race. A good move as it turned out. I’m not saying that Good Cheer is another Rachel Alexandra. “Rachel” has her beat on looks alone. But I do wonder how many of 8 other entrants actually show up to test her in the Fair Grounds Oaks.
My point in all of this is that there are going to be two very short-priced favorites in the late multi-race wagers on Saturday. If both win, it will take an imaginative strategy to turn a decent profit on the late pick-4, pick-5, or even pick-6.
I like Hall of Fame Sat
Hey TommyMcD
Good Cheer certainly appears to be single in the Pick-4 sequence, and I will use her accordingly. In addition, I’ll single Sierra Leone in the 9th (the first leg of the PK 4)
My $.50 cent PK 4 wager will be as follows:
R9) Sierra Leone
R10) ALL
R11) Good Cheer
R12) ALL
Hopefully, a longshot will win race #10, and another longshot will win the #12 (the Louisiana Derby), in which case the PK 4 payout could be decent.
Cost of my PK 4 ticket: $60.00
How often is DeRosa ever on point?
Would the $2,500 Chunk of Gold rival Coal Battle’s story on Derby Day?
Chunk of Gold has already banked over $148k for that $2,500 investment.
Vassimo’s rising numbers pattern is easy to like and he comes out of that mysterious Risen Star. He shows a smart 5-furlong workout last Friday. He adds blinkers and Irad Ortiz stays. Irad wants his record back. That’s the good stuff.
The bad news is that trainer Todd Pletcher is 15% with the blinkers added. Which is below his overall win percentage for the year(18%). Vassimo cost less than his sire’s(Nyquist) stud fee. Which sometimes screams “Claimer”. Those blinkers can many/most times enhance a horse’s speed. Which could be a bad thing with Furio, Yinzer, and John Hancock signed up for the race. I doubt that Vassimo can out gun any of those three. If he does, he might be vulnerable to the late runners.
Let’s see if all 10 start. The Virginia Derby started out with 10 before scratching down to just seven. If the field stays intact, I’ll want a late runner. Hypnus, anyone? Anyone?
The percentage difference regarding blinkers on doesn’t seem large enough to drop Vassimo from consideration. Besides, the numbers I see on the Brisnet PPs show Pletcher with 19% winners with the blinkers added. His total win percentage for 2024-25 is 18%.
The 18% is the same as I see. But the DRF shows 15% with both 1st time blinkers and blinkers on. Maybe DRF and Brisnet use different time frames for their stats. All of TP’s stats used to be much higher just a few years ago. But you are right, the difference isn’t big enough to worry about.
Good luck this weekend. I do see Vassimo as a contender.
I really like this one, Steve! Some days, It feels like we are living in The Twilight Zone, and I really liked the American Promise write up. The more I look at his performance in VA, the more I like the horse. What a pretty, fluid stride!
Coal Battle is still my favorite colt in this group. Sentimentality is playing in heavily, but it is hard to argue with results. However, I’m really worried about the noncommittal plans for him. Mr Briley has so many years of horsemanship under his belt, but I can’t help but wonder if the pressure of this opportunity is making him change what he was doing to get the results. I know he is the one who truly knows the colt, but I’d like to see him find a race for CB. I’m not to the point of saying “I just don’t get it,” but it’s making me nervous, if that makes sense.
I do not like the PLAN for Owen Almighty, because it goes against what his trainer initially said he wanted. That was a bad move for Michael McCarthy’s colt last year. However, I still really like the horse, and don’t want out on this pretty colt until we see what he looks like in the Bluegrass. We expect distance limitations, but we don’t know until he tries. That’s why they run the horse race, as they say.
It looks like quite a few of my favorites might head to Keeneland to try to prove themselves, and that still includes East Avenue. I – like you – thought displacement or entrapment when he quit last out. Who knows: maybe he isn’t a mentally competitive horse. I like his Daddy (and my former teachers, the Prides) too much to totally give up on him.
I am fascinated by how much you like Captain Cook. I’m interested to see him in action. It’s always a ride if you’ve got Rick Dutrow in the mix!
I would ramble on and on, but that’s where I should stop. Thank you for this week’s excellent read! We all just love you, and are so glad you feel like keeping your nose to the Grindstone!
Thank you Katy. To be honest I know i like Captain Cook for various reasons but I can’t remember his Withers it was so long ago.
It was easy to like his 51-1 future pool odds.
That helps, for those of you bold horseplayers!
I went back to watch the Withers, and can see what everyone likes. February was long and difficult, so I forgot many of the races early in the month! I have to stop ignoring the NY prep races. These are new horses, and the fact that their predecessors went down quietly has nothing to do with them.
Totally agree Kathy.
As previously mentioned, I have $200 on the ‘All Others’ betting interests in Pool #3. At the moment the cut is 24 with Hill Road being #20 with said amount of points.
I currently have 8 with more than 24 points including Chuck Of Gold below.
How many can get in to give my $200 wager a shot? By the end of the 100 points races I should have several. It would be nice to have half the field defending my wager.
I am having a lot of fun tracking the progress of my All Others.
The LA Derby contains 8 entrants from this category. There must be an outstanding chance to add to enhance my list
Caldera – 10
Chunk Of Gold – 25
Furio – 0
Hypnus -0
Instant Replay – 0
John Hancock -20
Vissimo – 10
Yinzer – 0
I have a big, formidable tag team to take down Built and Tiztastic
Hey Counter Point
In KD Futures Pool 3, the closing odds, on “All Others” was 4-1.
Why all the excitement on your $200.00 wager at those measly odds?
From my perspective, future bets are all about finding a legitimate Derby prospect, at big odds, and bet accordingly. Just my opinion.
Good luck with your Futures bet at 4-1.
Bill.
You question is valid. However, when I placed the wager the odds on All Other was closer to 10/1. I was very disaapointed with the final odds and concluded it wasn’t worth the wager. Unfortunately, I am stuck with the wager, and I am trying to make the most of it.
The excitement stems from the fact that I am likely to have $200 to win on either 1/4, 1/2 or 1/3 of the field @4/1. Should I get lucky and score. A profit of $800 from a $200 wager will be acceptable to most gamblers.
The odds on All Others will, never be as attractive as those the betting intertest. But it covers far more likely entrants and is less likely to be impacted by injuries, scratches, changes indirection by connections and race infractions.
I hope the above will make me less likely to be a victim of ridicule.
Will the key Risen Star shine on Saturday in New Orleans? How about an exacta box of Built (4-1), Chunk of Gold (8-1), and Vassimo (12-1)?
All threehad I side trips–on a track that was kind to inside trips…I like Lukas’s colt…and Hypnus—this year it “looks ” like Louisiana could be weak—I say “looks like”—the Risen Star winner looked pretty good. ..
Caldera – DOB 1/26/2022
Hypnus – DOB 1/26/2022
DOB exacta?
Bingo!
Sounds familiar. Lol
That’s okay, Steve. I’m not upset that you borrowed my thought before I had it. 😉
I get into a lot of trouble in this forum when I fail to understand why some KD prospects are so highly regarded. My comment and questions and viewed with are rarely viewed objectivity but are rather classified as being for a grossly disagreeable contributor.
Caldera is ranked I assumed based on his Sunland Deby performance. How does one properly assess his performance.
In the colt’s previous start, he broke his over 8 1/2F completed in 1:45.63 by 5L as the $1.70 post time favorite. He then contested the 8 1/2F Sunland Derby and was beaten by a nose in 1:42.64. Three seconds faster.
Is Caldera now a 1:42+ colt over 8 1/2F? Or was that final time a product of the venue?
John Hancock won the Davis in 1:42+ in his 2nd start. He isn’t ranked and he got an Equibase figure for his debut win over 6F of 93 compared to Caldera’s 67 for his weakening 6th place finish on debut over the same distance. The forementioned suggests John Hancock has a lot more quality and probably talent.
One can understand why things that do not compute for me it leads to comments and questions that are likely anger some folks.
Million Dollar KD entrants last 10 yeas –
2025 – Barnes – $3.2M (ranked #4)
2025- Sandman – $1.2M (ranked #11)
2024- Sierra Leone – $2.5M -2nd
2023 – Tapit Trice – $1.3m
2022 – Taiba – $1.7M -12th
2021 –
2020 –
2019 –
2018 – Mendelssohn – $3M – 20th
2017
2016 – Mohaymen- $.2.2m – 4th
2015
There are some gaps that can be filled in if necessary
Tapit Trice – 6th
What an excellent promotion for Tapit. If you are going to pay over a million dollars for a racehorse make sure he is by Tapit.
Tapit gets more million dollar runners into the Kentucky Derby than any other sire.
Well done, Counter Point, promoting sons of Tapit gets the thumbs up 👍
Carpe Diem, Tapwrit, Instilled Regard. Plus five others who were in the last KDFW.
What about the 100s of million dollar horses that never even made it to the Kentucky Derby? You seem to be attacking the wrong million dollar horses.
Steve, another enthralling read as usual, so much pleasure. Hopefully, your ‘new’ eyes are making everything less stressful to complete your copy by a certain deadline. Once a journalist, always a journalist.
Now is the time when things become really serious when winning or placing really counts. Past performances mean very little when you are trying to determine how a colt is finishing off in a 9f+ race while confronting tougher competition at the same time.
I’m not truly convinced that your top 6 colts have a stranglehold on the Kentucky Derby at this stage but time will tell. Unlike some, the Louisiana Derby for me has plenty of interest in its outcome. These colts are to be judged on their progression forward not what happened in September, October, November of 2024 or even January of 2025.
Here in Australia, this Saturday is one of the highlights of the year. At Rosehill in Sydney, with a break of Sunshine for a change, the card is sensational highlighted by the 5 million Golden Slipper Stakes along with the Group 1 Ranvet Stakes, Group 1 The Galaxy, Group 1 George Ryder Stakes all million dollar races, as well as the Group 1 Rosehill Guineas at 600,000 plus three other Group 3 races.
In Melbourne, at Moonee Valley, there is the 1 million Group 1 William Reid Stakes along with the Group 2 Alister Clark Stakes, Group 2 Sunline Stakes plus two Group 3 races to entertain the punters. It’s supposed to be sunny on Saturday but we are blessed with 2 days of rain beforehand. Everyone is over the heat here.
The Golden Slipper Stakes is the first race of the Triple Crown races for two year olds and is always a fabulous race to watch. Who is going to win? Well, the Wooten Bassett colt, Wodeton has caught the eye but the Too Darn Hot colt, Rivellino, might surprise.
Lynda, there is another Wootton Basset colt in the Golden Slipper named West of Swindon who is still improving so you have two hopes here. Anyway, there is a field of 18 and outside posts are distinctly disadvantaged.
Rivellino has post 3, Wodeton 2, and West of Swindon 4. Tempted, a very smart Street Boss filly, has post 1. Tempted might be too good for the colts – wait and see. Excitement +
Davids, thank you for keeping us apprised of these excellent races down under. All sound fascinating.
Thanks Ms Blacktype, the Group 1 races at Rosehill start around 11:50 pm Friday night, New York time. So if you want to follow the races live throughout the early morning you could try getting the 7plus app or the website 7plus dot com dot au
Otherwise, the races will no doubt be on YouTube. 7plus show both Melbourne and Sydney races live every Saturday and the coverage is perfect.
Enjoy the racing.
No one has a stranglehold on the Derby right now. I feel the top 6 have a stranglehold on the Dozen as we speak
but a lot can change in thext few weeks.
No, Steve, I think the top six look extremely vulnerable apart from Journalist. It will be interesting to see what Madaket Road does in the Florida Derby. Smart move by Baffert.
Tiztastic finally got a decent ride to show what potential he has and Asmussen always has them on a slow burn. Could it be his year with a surprise?
Ravet, Moonee, Wooten Bassett. I love it when you talk like that!
Jose Ortiz will be on Sandman in the Arkansas Derby. Christian Torres can ride with anyone and may well end up back on Sandman but it’s hard to argue that J. Ortiz isn’t, if only by a small margin, an upgrade.
I’d argue that if his brother has a mount in the race, an upgrade is then purely questionable.
We disagree on the riding proficiency of Christian Torres, Jerry. I’m sure that Mark Casse is making the change because he and/or the owners were not pleased by the way Torres handled Sandman in his last two races.
Sandman needs to be put in the race sooner in order to unleash a winning move in the stretch run. Jose Ortiz is a good judge of pace and I’m glad that he gets the mount on Sandman.
Regarding Cornucopian and his future pool price, I suppose 15-1 isn’t that crazy on a flyer play with some folks maybe seeing shades of Justify. I can’t pull the trigger on a one race at one turn demonstration with no assurance he even runs in a points race. I doubt he’s Hidden Scroll Junior but I’ve seen these types play out that way too many times. If the horse does win points in style then hits the gate in Kentucky, then he could end up being the chalk or close to it. I figure if he runs in the Ark then maybe I get 9/5 = $5.60 then could parlay it into, say, 7/2 in Kentucky = $19.60. Still about 8-1 combined without the risk of not knowing if he takes a shot. I’m inclined the think the Derby will not favor front running types this year since there seems to be a lot of speed signed on including the entire Baffert barn.
Any word from Terry Finley or Dale Romans about Keep It Easy?
Nothing yet. I will try Finley today.
I hate to criticize, but the DRF trip notes for Caldera in the Sunland Derby say “Dueled, just missed”. Well, that’s part of the story. Just not the best part. I’ve been watching replays again. Which usually gets me into trouble. Caldera broke bad that day and was hustled up to get within striking distance of perfect-tripper Getaway Car. Caldera was caught way wide on the first turn and raced wide the rest of the way. Around the far turn, Caldera ranged up and took the lead, looking like a certain winner. Even to the track announcer. But Getaway Car fought back and won a head-bob. I’m certain that Caldera was much the best that day if not for the wide trip. Two bullets since raced and Tyler G up make him my horse for the Louisiana Derby.
But wait a minute! As I’m re-reading Steve Haskin’s comments about Caldera, I’m reminded that Caldera is in the MyRacehorse stable with, as Steve Haskin puts it, “Caldera’s huge legion of backers and shareholders”, and later, “MyRacehorse masses”.
Bottom line: If Caldera wins, I’ll get paid about half of what I deserve. What kind of a deal is that? A dealbreaker is what that is. Back to the drawing board.
Watching the replay, I’d say that Caldera broke slow, not bad. The trip comment that you quoted is from the PPs. The result-chart trip notes are far more detailed. I’ve seen a few My Racehorse runners go off at big odds. Do you think the “owners” are tipped off that certain runners aren’t primed to run well? 😉
Horses that overcome bad trips tend to get overbet—Sandman was overbet.. but I do like Caldera. I might take the better price on Hypnus.
The La Derby may turn out to be a good horse race, but it’s pretty below par for the “new and improved” final KD prep at 9.5f. There’s not one graded-stakes winner among the 10 contestants. The tepid ML favorite is John Hancock, the last-out half-length winner of the non-graded SF Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs. Yet at least two horses will likely earn enough points to enter the KD.
Anything can happen, but I will wager that no horse from the La Derby will hit the board in the KD.
Since the change in distance to 1 3/16, three winners of the Louisiana Derby have finished on the board in the K. Derby,: Hot Rod Charlie, Epicenter and Catching Freedom. During this same time, Disarm who finished second to Kingsbarns and O’ Besos who ran third to Hot Rod Charlie have hit the board in fourth in the Derby. After changing the distance of the Risen Star to 1 1/8, past winners: Mandaloun, Epicenter, Angel of Empire and Sierra Leone have hit the board and third place finishers, Zandon, Two Phil’s and Catching Freedom have hit the board. The year before the change, Country House finished second in the Risen Star and fourth in the Louisiana Derby. This “new and improved” route is just fine.
My comment was about the quality of this year’s field in comparison to the better fields of the past several years. “Pretty below par” were my words.
You are right. It does seem below par, however American Promise and Render Judgement finished 5th and 8th in the Risen Star and just ran 1-2 in the Virginia Derby. Magnitude ran them all off their feet and earned a 108 Beyer. I’m interested in what Chunk of Gold, Built or Vassimo can accomplish running against John Hancock, Caldera, Instant Replay or Hypnus. I won’t say that the winner of the Derby is in this mix, but I will say I will look hard for a board finisher.
Thanks, Rob. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Risen Star becomes a key race in some manner. By the way, I have Built in the last KDFW at 56-1.
While I’m inclined to agree on the surface, the Louisiana Derby has a high impact value in Kentucky over the last 15 years and one must very tread lightly tossing chalks and bombers from that race from the vertical gimmicks: Epicenter, Mandaloun, Hot Rod Charlie, Gun Runner, Commanding Curve, Revolutionary, Golden Soul, Mucho Macho Man…
Tony, can we crown you with a dunce’s cap should one of the runners in the Louisiana Derby win or place in the Kentucky Derby in May?
I’m more interested in how these three year olds cope running 9.5 f than what a 2 year old did last year or even 3 year olds running 1 1/16 miles this year.
Good luck with your favorites who are obviously running in other preps.
If three readers misunderstand my comment, I accept the probability that I didn’t adequately convey my thoughts. You are free to crown me dunce about 75% of the time — in horse race betting or just about any other day-to-day activity.
As I replied to Rob, my original comment was about the lackluster La Derby field (i.e., no graded stakes winners) compared to the previous years’ editions at the new distance. I’m well aware that the race has produced quality KD runners. In fact, I’ve bet a few of them.
Davids, will you take the challenge and bet that any of Saturday’s 10 La Derby runners will hit the board in the KD? I said that I would wager they don’t.
Tony, I’m not the person disparaging the Louisiana Derby, you are. The onus is entirely on you. Whether any of the Louisiana Derby runners hit the board or not has no burden on me.
Whether you will be a dunce on the first Saturday in May depends entirely on how the racing gods wish to play their hand. Visiting a clairvoyant may help you ease the stress of the burden you are now carrying.
I usually enjoy reading your posts but something I really despise is people belittling horses who have barely begun their racing careers.
Obviously, now I have a particular interest in one or more runners in the Louisiana Derby hitting the board in the upcoming Kentucky Derby.
So no bet? I’m wondering why you’re overreacting (e.g., “disparaging the Louisiana Derby”) to my post. Similar types of comments have been written here countless times a day with no overwrought reply from you. Did you have a bad day? Do you find “below par” to be fighting words? Folks are always offering opinions on race quality, along with comparisons to other races. In fact, analysis of that kind is an everyday part of race handicapping.
Your posts are usually insightful, fair, and in good humor. You failed in this case.
Here’s food for thought Tony, alot of people say alot of things. That’s why I pay little attention to some here.
It was meant to be tongue in cheek Tony, you are taking yourself and my post way too seriously.
Tongue in cheek? You sure did fool me! 😮
Case in point: CA Chrome.
100%
The 1983 crop had Broag Brush, Ferdinand and Snow Chief…and they ran some four year old races together…2021 crop reminds me some—Fierceness, Sierra Leone, Forever Young, Locked AND perhaps Hall of Fame@—looks even better, I hope they all can find yhe sane starting gate!..
Mindframe looks the best of all of them, Matthew. We shall see by the end of the year.
Forgot about Mindframe!…it’s a good year of four year olds.
Should East Avenue be written off because of his back-to-back poor performances?
I will be the first to admit that his poor start in the BCJ was not totally responsible for his dull effort. Nether was it a lack of fitness that led to his flop in the Risen Star.
Sandman had probably a worse start in the Southwest and showed his chops and rallied to finish 2nd.
Admiral Dennis trailed the Rebel field by 24L from a troubled start. He closed 17L of that ap to finished decent 6th y 7L.
Hil Road didn’t experience a poor start but had other factors that could have excused him if he delivered a poor performance. He shipped from across the pond; first start on dirt; track configuration and most importantly a race pace with which he wasn’t remotely accustomed. None of these factors inhibited him from closing from 10L last to spoil tri that was unfolding for BB’s barn.
East Avenue quit in both poor performances. His performances are reminiscent of a turf horse on a dirt surface it didn’t relish, and it quickly depleted it energy resources. Is there any merit to this conclusion reached by a process of elimination?
If East Avenue entered his last two starts mentally and physically fit, which appeared to have been the case. The opposition was not threatening as Citizen Bull the eventual winner of the BCJ left the gates at 16/1. Magnitude the winner of the Risen Star left the gates at 43/1. Therefore, the only logical conclusion for the colt’s poor performances is the surface.
City of Troy didn’t run a lick in his dirt debut. But he probably would have run a lot better if the 2024 BCC was contested at CD. Horses that excel Turf/Synthetic such as Barbaro. Mine That Bird, Pioneer of the Nile and Animal Kingdom to name a few, performed with distinction at CD.
In East Avenue we might just have another Sea Hero. Ahead of the 1992 BCJ Sea Hero was an impressive 5 3/4L winner of the Champagne (G1). East Avenue was an impressive 5L+ winner of the G1 Breeder Futurity at Keeneland. Sea Hero was the close 2nd choice in the BCJ and finished 7th by 8 3/4L. East Avenue as the overwhelming favorite finished 9th by 13 1/4L. Both the colt’s next out race was an unmitigated disaster. Sea Hero finished 9th by 12 1/2L whilst East Avenue finished 10th by 22 3/4L.
After Sea Hero’s BCJ and subsequent performance. It is unlikely he was viewed as the likely winer of the 1993 KD. A 4th place finish in the Blue Grass, his final KD prep might have restored some confidence as he won the KD with Jerry Bailey at 12/1. East Avenue next start and final KD prep will be in the Blue Grass.
If Sea Hero who didn’t exabit the early talent of East Avenue, could leave behind inexplicably poor results and emerge a KD winner. The is hope for Est Avenue.
I got a text from a friend, before the last Admiral Dennis race—he loved his work, and the horse broke terribly–over a track that favored speed all afternoon—Id keep an eye on him….
It’s like Steve says—there really isn’t very much to go on, anymore—too few starts/ not enough to look at—-look in the nooks, and crannies….I found Mage—15-1—he only had a few starts, but he ran well, vs Forte, who was the top guy…..I found Mystik Dan—because 1) Steve pointed out he had a good Thorofraph rating, despite being soundly beat…and mostly for 2) His inside rally, in the Southwezt was proof that he could and WOULD go thru an I side seam—and he did, once more….
Re: East Avenue/Sea Hero
History says that EA doesn’t have enough time to turn around from two bad races (for both, the BCJ and the 3yo comeback). Sea Hero had a second race and a third race following the comeback. The second race was a turf allowance in which he finished 3rd. The third race was the Blue Grass, in which he encountered traffic in the stretch and finished 4th by 2 3/4 lengths. EA has one race to get his stuff together for the KD. Good luck to him.
You wrote that Sea Hero did not exhibit the early talent of East Avenue. How so? Sea Hero won the Champagne with a 95 Brisnet. East Avenue won the Breeders Futurity with a 95 Brisnet. Both races were the duo’s only stakes races as 2yos.
The morning line odds have been posted for Saturday’s Louisiana Derby, and as expected, John Hancock is the morning line favorite.
1) John Hancock, 7/2
2) Chunk of Gold, 8-1
3) Tiztastic, 8-1
4) Yinzer, 12-1
5) Caldera, 5-1
6) Built, 4-1
7) Vassimo, 12-1
8) Furio, 12-1
9) Instant Replay, 6-1 (my pick)
10) Hypnus, 10-1
In my $2.00 superfecta p/w, I’ll key Instant Replay on top, with John Hancock, Yinzer, Caldera and Built underneath. in the 2nd, 3rd and 4th slots.
That is: 9/ 1,4,5,6/ 1,4,5,6/ 1,4,5,6
Safe trips to all.
Hello Bill,
I hope all is well.
Your abandonment of Hypnus is interesting. You called this colt ahead of its debut and it duly obliged in an impressive fashion. After a even performance in the Rebel, you have jumped ship to the extent that he is not even worthy of a underneath consideration. How so?
The 2025 renewal of the Rebel was extremely fast. How fast?
In the last 20 ruining of the Rebel, the final time for the 2025 renewal ranks as the 6th fastest. But a breakdown of the 5 previous faster times, suggests it probably the 4th fastest on a fast surface .The faster times recorded by Malagacy and Magnum Moon from TP’s barn should have an asterisk.
I know you are a speed figure individual. Hypnus was assigned an Equibase figure of 92 for his debut win. He was assigned a 93 for his 7th place finish in the Rebel. If you liked him on debut, he performed just about the same in the Rebel. That isn’t entirely accurate.
It has been previously mentioned that he experienced traffic issues in the lane. He displayed a lot of late race energy when he got clear sailing. Other pertinent factors are –
He was off Lasix.
It was his 2nd start and graded stake debut.
He was competing against graded/listed stake winners and graded place entrants.
The pace of the race was 3 seconds faster than which he encountered on debut.
It was a speed bias surface and unfavorable for deep closers.
To be only beaten by 7L has to be consider a major positive. The colt will be better for the experience. His resume reflects a significant bit of information that differentiates him from the rest of the field.
He made his debut over 8 1/2F and emerged a victor. Evey other entrant in the field made a debut at a lesser distance. He was subjected to the Lactic Acid test from day one and passed with flying colors.
I am prepared to take a shot with this colt as he is a genuine router with a touch of class.
Hey Counter Point
Your points are well taken, and I’m aware that Hypnus experienced traffic issues in the Rebel Stakes. He hasn’t shown a lot of early speed and being stuck in the outside post certainly doesn’t help matters.
Occasionally, you’ve been known to pick longshots in graded races, so based on your choice of Hypnus in the Louisiana Derby, I’ll play an additional superfecta p/w wager and use Hypnus underneath.
I’ll key John Hancock and Instant Replay on top, in the first two slots, with Yinzer, Caldera, Built and Hypnus in the 3rd and 4th slots.
That is: 1,9/ 1,9/ 4,5,6,10/ 4,5,6,10 ($1.00 super p/w)
Thanks for the reply, Counter Point, and good luck with Hypnus.
I thought that Sandman was moving better that Hypnus that day and that Hypnus wasn’t going to win even with a clear run. And I’m no fan of Sandman.
However, the change of tracks from Oaklawn to Fair Grounds could be key. As Tony D posts above, this Louisiana Derby field is below par. Hypnus may have found his friends. With my abandonment of the MyRacehorse entry, I might just land on Hypnus. The price should be right. With a couple of scratches, he might not even be breaking from the #10 post.
There is a 2-track pick-5 on Saturday featuring 2 races at Turfway and 3 races at Fair Grounds. The Jeff Ruby Steaks Stakes and the Louisiana Derby are among those five races.
It could be interesting.
I think it’s a $1 bet though. Which is a negative to me with so many other wagering temptations on the menu Saturday.
I don’t know if there is enough cash in my ADW account to get me through Saturday.
When I was a youngster, about sixty+ years ago, my brother and I would go on what we called “a bottle haul”. We would walk around the neighborhood to all the construction sites in the area and collect all the discarded soda bottles. Then take them back to the store to collect the bottle deposits. Money problems solved. We could raise $10 to $20, which was good money for 2 kids in those days. That was in the good old days in California.
I’ll just have to pick my spots on Saturday. Can’t play them all.
Doesn’t California still have the bottle deposit return scheme? You have a few days to grow your bankroll.
Cali charges a 5 cent bottle deposit….
Their return is figured by weight—your 5 cent deposit RETURN is less than a half cent—
Ouch!
According to Brad Free at DRF, Cornucopian looked best in a workout with Barnes. It’s just a workout. Probably nothing to get too excited about.
Barnes could still be a little stiff after that big try against Journalism.
why would a super colt be stiff after a defeat?
I have to agree with Brad ….. His previous workout looked better than his latest.
A few years back, D. Wayne Lukas was quoted as saying, “all horses can run a mile and a quarter, it’s just a question as to how fast they get there”, or words to that effect.
Owen Almighty has been labeled as a horse with “distance limitations” by several contributors on this site, and by his trainer, Bryan Lynch.
In winning the 8-furlong Tampa Derby, his final sixteenth of a mile was a very impressive 5.84 seconds, which would indicate he was getting faster at the end, drawing off by 3 1/2 lengths. I would say it’s a bit premature to label Owen Almighty as a horse with “distance limitations”. If he fails to run an impressive race in the 9-furlong Blue Grass, then by all means, run him in the Pat Day Mile. Conversely, if should win, or finish in the money, then the Kentucky Derby is certainly an option moving forward.
Just my opinion on Owen Almighty as a legitimate Derby prospect.
I’m with you. Why not? There’s enough time to space the races. I like the horse enough to stick around to see what happens.
Here’s just a weird coincidence, though. The back and forth plan for Owen A reminds me of the scenario last year re: whether Endlessly would start in the Derby. Endlessly is by Oscar Performance. Oscar Performance was trained by Brian Lynch, who also trains Owen Almighty. Maybe not Rod Serling weird, but I found it interesting.
At least this is not an 11th hour decision.
Charlie’s to Blame is a big colt…he likes to go out fast….I saw some of his works early this year and was impressed….
Watched a tape of the broadcast if the 1963 Whitney Stakes in color! Kelso giving big weight, and swooping by down the stretch….My first year watching Horse Racing was 1971—a smallish horse named Ack Ack beat a medium sized Cougar II in the Big Cap…both carrying weight—then Ack Ack packing the grandstand–134 lbs, of Shoe…(95lbs)…his tack .and a pile of lead!…watched Forego—Mighty Forego in the 1976 Marlboro Cup, this time carrying Shorle’s 95…his saddle…even more lead AND 10 extra pounds of mud! …..This Sat—Champion Sierra Leone totes 124..gives from 2-6 lbs—Days gone by—there’ll still be champions every year…maybe even a six race wonder horse—I think we’ll never again think of a horse as “Mighty”….
(shoe’s 95 lbs)
Steve, The perfect time to quote Rod Serling. Literally as I was reading it I heard Serling’s voice in my head! Your wayback machine brought back 65 years. As for American Promise WOW
I would love to see East Avenue find his form again and make it back into Derby contention. He seemed to have everything you’d want before the last two headscratching clunkers. Medaglia d’Oro’s sons have had a number of opportunities at Churchill Downs. I think it’s time one of them crosses the wire first and wears the blanket of roses. One can only hope it’s him, but his next race will likely tell us if he’s in or out.
Unlike some, I don’t give up on horses cause of a couple bad races. EA is talented.
Why run a horse just to run? EA hasn’t done a thing in six months. I could’ve ran faster than him last two races.
No you couldn’t. He’s going to bounce back.
Sorry , for me unless its first time out in their 3 yr old season then 2 regressions takes me off a colt to win The Derby.
Bad derby preps (i.e., off the board) and winning the KD don’t get along.
New Flash: Owen Almighty will indeed remain on the Derby trail and point to the Blue Grass for his next start.
I will drop Grande from my top 12 Derby prospects, and use Owen Almighty as his replacement at #12.
I’m keeping Grande in until after the Florida Derby.
Grande going to the Wood Memorial according to Repole.
It’s understandable to resist the temptation to run in the Ky Derby, but why not give the colt a chance to show what he’s got at 9f in a prep.
Tony, the horse has distance limitations, which will get exposed in Derby.
He shouldn’t be tried at 9f after winning at 8.5?
Sure, try him. However, betting Lynch knows the horse better than anyone, including the owner.
Tony, Owen Almighty is targeting the Blue Grass, which should tell us all something about his distance abilities.
That was my point, Ms B.
Actually Lynch is running him there because of the owners not because he thinks he has a chance.
Correct.
Barnes😒…whatever. Suspicious bob not running him much.
As previously specified. I am a1+1=2 individual. things have to compute for me to understand. Yes! I a man with a simple mind.
I continue to read and hear that a particular horse ran a particular Beyer. I contend horses run fractions and final times for particular distances. They do not run Beyers.
Beyers are often changed without any change to race charts
Bellamy Road – 120 for NSR in 2005 Wood Memorial. Highest Beyer ever assigned for the KD entrant. Fished 7th by 6 3/4L in KD,
Fierceness- 110 for 2024 FL Derby win. Finished 15th by 25L in KD
Tiz The Law – 109 for Travers win – Finished 2nd in KD
The KD entrant with the Highest Beyer in the last 4 KD didn’t emerge as the winner.
The attention paid that Beyer figures doesn’t compute for me
You know what they say: It’s not about the biggest number, it’s how the number is used.
I still can’t get over how good East Avenue looked stalking Magnitude in the Risen Star. Right up until they started around the far turn. Whatever happened, Tyler Gaffalione never persevered with the horse. I don’t doubt Steve Haskin’s possible reason for what may have happened(another nugget found in “Knocking at the Door”).
Chunk of Gold just got up to snatch second from a tiring Built.
Take a look at Vassimo. He was just off the pace of Magnitude and East Avenue. Then he faded, only to come on again to get fourth. Though far back from the freakish Magnitude.
Hey, look at that. Steve Asmussen has a million dollar speed ball named Yinzer ridden by Ben Curtis. Who road Magnitude in that strange Risen Star? I think it might have been Ben. Weird can’t strike twice. Can it?
I am like many others on these blogs, I do not follow Beyer times. Journalism received a 108 Beyer for the San Felipe. Albeit Santa Anita has proven to be an excellent place to prep for the Kentucky Derby, I am not sold on Journalism.
Let’s see if he can beat Citizen Bull in the Santa Anita Derby first.
My current choices are
Citizen Bull
Sovereignty
Coal Battle
Thank you Steve for taking the time to write this blog. I always appreciate your hard work.
Been on CB’s bandwagon for months. Sovereignty is super talented. However, Journalism, from my view point, towers over Citizen Bull.
Agree Mike. Journalism has all of the tools.
Thanks Joe! Earlier comment, when stating bandwagon, been fan of Coal Battle for awhile.
Coal Battle is intriguing and hopefully he runs in the ARK Derby and not train up to the derby instead off of what would be a long layoff as Steve points out. If he wins the ARK Derby or runs a strong second, he will stamp himself as a serious KY Derby contender. Good to see one of the not famous trainer names get a good one. Coal Battle is consistent and seems to be getting better at the right time.
Agree 100%. Nice to see a lesser known trainer have a really live horse. Joe, even if CB runs 3rd in AD, good enough for me. Wanting a full tank when running in Derby a month later.
All in on Journalism- Coal battle and hoping Caldera gets 1 or 2 in the LA DERBY and gets in.
Great synopsis as always. I’m separating Journalism and Sovereignty into 1 and 2 respectively based solely on stamina in the pedigree. We’ve not yet seen either sire produce a KY Derby winner but I’m betting on Curlin to reach that milestone first.
I’ve no idea what to think of American Promise. How on earth does an “ordinary” runner jump up and do what we saw in the Virginia Derby? Well, he is a Wayne Lucas runner. That may be all we need to know.
I can’t express how disappointed I am in my initial #1 pick, Patch Adams. I guess I still want to believe in the horse and so am blaming the jockey for the way he’s been ridden in each of his last two races. If they are trying to teach him to rate, it isn’t working and taking away his strength (speed) has likely dropped him off of the trail. Hopefully, we’ll see him at his best in the future.
Robin, also haven’t thrown Patch out.
I am a bit confused with your statement below. Did I miss something
“We’ve not yet seen either sire produce a KD winner.”
Authentic – 2020 KD winner – Into Mischief
Mandaloun 2nd by 1/2L promoted to 1st – 2021 KD – Into Mischief
Curlin’s best Finish – Good Magic 2nd to Justify, 2018 KD
A “real” KD winner..
Not sure how I missed that.
Great read, Mr. Haskin!
Thanks Mike
Instant Replay AOC ———– 23.47; 46.66; 1:11.32; 1:36.76; 1:43.25 (Lasix)
HallOf Fame Mineshaft G3—24.46; 48.60; 1:12.63;1:36.59; 1:42.89 (Lasix)
Instant Replay went from 6th by 10L to first by 5L
HOF raced in 3rd and wore down leaders
Handicappers and the Betting Public can only speculate how horses will perform without RDM next out. Who cares about the wagering public when keep and care bills are not directed to those viewed as degenerate gamblers/ horse players.
Why do American trainers insist on using Lasix when it is allowed?
Why do owners sign off on the administration of the RDM?
Injecting horses with RDM must be viewed as abuse.
America! Oh, America where is thy moral compass
I just watched a replay of Instant Replay’s big win. He got a complete setup IMO. I’ll need to see him do it again against better horses. He could get pace again if Furio, Yinzer, and John Hancock all stay in the race.
Inside speed dominated the day Hall of Fame came down outside and won in mid Feb…I like him right back..
Steve
Thank you for providing another brilliant analysis on your top Derby prospects and it was good to see that my top six were in the same order as your top six. However, I have Journalism at #1 and Sovereignty at #2.
Yesterday, I posted a comment on the upcoming Louisiana Derby, pointing out Instant Replay as the likely winner. Instead of dueling for the lead, as he did two races back, Florent Geroux, rated Instant Replay off the pace, drawing off by 5 lengths for the win.
He earned an Equibase Speed figure of 100, for that race, over the Fair Grounds track.
It interesting to note that Geroux rated IR off the pace in his maiden win, going a mile in 1:36.26, drawing off by 8 3/4 lengths, at Churchill.
Bottom line, Instant Replay checks a lot of boxes coming into the Louisiana Derby, including the highest late pace figure in the field.
Your hard work, week after week, is much appreciated, Steve.
Instant Replay’s dam was sold the year after he was foaled for $5000 with the same Maximum-Security cover.
The purchaser seems to have stuck gold. There is always the prospect of the full sibling that follows could be better although very rarely.is that thecae,
Thanks for the reply, Counter Point
Yes indeed, Instant Replay could be a diamond in the rough.
When you mentioned, “the purchaser seems to have struck gold”, I’m hopeful it’s not “fool’s gold”.
BTW, who do you like in the Louisiana Derby?
I’m not quite sure why they ran him twice for a high priced claiming tag but his last was very impressive. It was obvious they wanted to take him back. You can see Geroux pulling back on the reins. When he got rolling there was no stopping him. He is very light on his feet and has a beautiful stride and a very smooth lead change. He may be vastly Improved.. definitely check the odds.
Thanks for the reply, Steve
Instant Replay is definitely stepping up in class and will travel an additional eighteenth of a mile. It will be interesting to see his morning line odds, which could be in the double digits. Your positive thoughts on this Maximum Security colt is well received on this end.
I fully concur that a strong race by either of the #1s can be as good as a win. Better yet, an impressive second instead of a win will offer bettors much improved odds on Derby day.
River Thames would be in my Top 12 if I had a Top 12. Maybe Tappan Street and Built, too. RT grudgingly lost by a neck to the co-#1. That by itself qualifies him in my view.
So when exactly did Knocking ON the Door become Knocking AT the Door? I prefer ON, but I’m hoping that the subheading doesn’t become Knocking IN the Door next week. Ha ha
Whether it’s on, at, or in I hope they start coming in.
Steve, for the final “slow week” you managed to hit a home run.
Regarding American Promise. I am not convinced that this horse belongs in the top ten. Besides his maiden breaker (gate to wire) all his other races are subpar at best. In the Virginia Derby, the track bias was beyond ridiculous. Below is the winning style of the previous 8 races prior to the Virginia Derby.
Race 1: 8F Gate to wire
Race 2: 6F A head in 2nd at the 2nd call
Race 3: 6F Gate to wire
Race 4: 6F Gate to wire
Race 5: 8F Gate to wire
Race 6: 6F 1st at the 2nd call
Race 7: 8F 2nd at the 2nd call
Race 8: 8.5F 2nd at the 2nd call
Virginia Derby: 8.5F 2nd at the 2nd call
What does D Wayne Lukas do with this horse between now and the first Saturday in May is anyone’s guess. If he waits until the KD, I envision him contributing more speed with other front runners.
Lol. He doesn’t belong in the Top 10 and I wouldn’t have have ranked him if it wasn’t such a struggle trying to find horses to put there. This is a Derby Half Dozen ,and just trying to fill the rest
Really really good thorough analysis. I put American Promise in the same sphere as Tiztastic and Sandman. They are the old school horses trained by old school trainers. I think Tiztastic will run big in the Louisiana Derby. And Sandman should run a solid race in the Arkansas Derby. They might not win , but should make the gate in Kentucky. Thanks Steve!
We are on the same train of thought, Jerry. Tiztastic should get an educated ride from Joel Rosario which will benefit him greatly. Sandman is just waiting on 10f to express his full potential. Same with American Promise.
As you mentioned above, it’s a slow burn to peak on the first Saturday in May that counts, not speed numbers in prep races two months early.
Everyone is so impatient these days, they want to crown the Kentucky Derby in March instead of May.
Your last sentence summed it perfectly. 🙂
Steve, Zany …. I hope American Promise proves you all wrong. Zany, by the way those 8 races run before AP”s Virg Derby none produced a track record. Steve, with your answer here why should we take your first 6 picks seriously.??? …. LOL
Yep, you struck a nerve here !!!
You need to look up two things. What Lol means and the word facetious.
DTS, the way I see it, the track bias produced insane results. Four races went gate to wire, and the rest were won from the second place horses.
There’s not much main/dirt track history at Colonial Downs. The track “record” should have an *.
I would have been really impressive if that record was set at Santa Anita, Churchill Downs, Belmont or Saratoga. Enjoy the memory from last Saturday.
Edit…It would
Agreed Zany.
Agree about the “track record.” It’s not really a meaningful news item.
Zany,
Although Colonial Downs does not have a cherished history of racing like Santa Anita, Churchill Downs , Belmont etc… American Promise still set a ” new track record ” But the way he did it was most impressive. Is he a one hit wonder like Patch Adams ( had to get a dig in here at Mike R. ) a flash in the pan!?!?! Or will he turn out to be another Charismatic (hopefully without a breakdown) ? But I will have a fond memory of his race and hopefully have the last laugh in the end.
But either way life will go on one way or another !!!
A lot of people say alot of things Down. AP looked great! Question is, which horse shows up Derby day?
Sorry Steve, At first, (your LOL must have thrown me off ) I did not take your answer here as facetious and a joke but more as flippant and disrespectful and to all horses below your top 6 in your Derby Dozen.
But now that I read it over a “few” time I see your facetiousness !!! …. you old jokester you !!!! BTW doesn’t LOL stand for “Lucky Old Loser” ??? (just KKKKIIIIDDDIIIINNNNGGG )
I never want to be disrespectful to any horse especially those I I rank among the top 12 horses.
Steve
Thanks for your clarification and sorry for my initial interpretation of the response.
Caldera shows a couple of bullets since raced.
Chunk of Gold only cost $2,500 and comes out of that weird Magnitude Risen Star. The question is whether Chunk of Gold is part of the weird.
Vassimo shows a nice rising numbers pattern and also exits that Risen Star.
Built adds blinkers and is another coming out of Magnitude’s freakshow.
Hypnus had a troubled trip in the Rebel. I’ll watch a replay when I get time to see how bad that trouble was.
John Hancock is 2 for 2 at Tampa and drew the rail. Should enjoy the distance. Yinzer and Furio could provide pace pressure.
The Louisiana is an interesting race with ten horses entered. Let’s see how many actually start.
There are a few gems in “Knocking on the Door” this week as usual. Including a suggested bet of an exacta using Built with, Chunk of Gold, Caldera, and Vassimo.
Thank you, Steve. Great writeup and info on Owen Almighty. Is Statesman still on track for the Wood or is that not happening?
He worked Sunday so I imagine he’s still heading there.
Thanks, Steve!
Steve, you’ve put out another good column which leaves me filled with anticipation for the eight remaining major preps. There are still questions to be answered among the supporting cast of Derby contenders.
Very surprised to hear that Flood Zone will try to win the Dubai World Cup instead of running in the UAE Derby. I suppose that he could ship back for the Kentucky Derby as he does have 50 points earned for his Gotham win. But, as you say, it’s asking a lot.
You didn’t mention John Hancock this week. Are you not giving him a chance in the Louisiana Derby? What’s your take on John Hancock’s pedigree? Does he not have enough stamina to go the Derby distance? Just asking…..
John Hancock is the favorite with only two starts. There is nothing to say about him that hasn t been said before. I wrote about Intriguing longshots.
Dewey, in all fairness, Steve DID mention John Hancock. The mention was in a comment about stablemate Instant Replay, but a mention nonetheless. 🙂
Picky, picky, picky. Tony, you should have been a lawyer, lol.
Another fabulous post, Steve, just packed with information and insights. I had not heard of Final Gambit, so I will watch his performance in the Jeff Ruby with interest. And to add one thing to your comments on Sovereignty, Bill Mott told the DRF that the horse “woke up” in his last workout — implying that Sovereignty was putting it all altogether in a way he hadn’t before. Looks like the Florida Derby will be a key race for him.
PS: Steve, I meant to praise you for your deft use of the opening lines from the Twilight Zone. Did you have to look them up, or did you remember them by heart like I did? LOL.
Thanks. I remembered most of it but looked it up to make sure I got it perfect.
As of now, I am down to four, but open to a breakout run from another hopeful.
The best I have seen is Journalism.
The most talented is definitely Barnes. From 7 f to 1 1/16. His next outing will be the tell.
The best style for winning, Citizen Bull.
The horse with the best heart, Coal Battle. Finally showed me that he was fast enough.
I know that most will feel I am crazy for leaving off Sovereignty, but i just don’t think he is top 4. I could be completely wrong but my gut say’s nope.
Great insights as always, Steve.
Interesting conclusion regarding Sovereignty.
Coal Battle is your #4. Neither he nor Sovereignty have ever met. But both have been in a race with the #11 ranked Sandman. Let’s use their respective race against the Casse colt as a measure to try to determine who is more deserving of atop 4 ranking.
As a maiden and the 1/2 favorite in the Street Sense G3, Sovereignty defeated Sandmand by 5L under a hand ride and was eased before the line.
As a 4 times winner, Coal Battle defeated Sandman in the Rebel by 1 3/4L at 11/1 and the 8th choice in the betting. Sovereignty as a maiden was the 1/2 favorite against Sandman who was a last out MSW winner.
Whilst Sovereignty was off from Oct to Feb. Coal Battle made 3 starts and was likely to be much more race fit than Sovereignty heading into the Rebel. Coal Battle won the 8 1/2F rebel in 1:43.01. Sovereignty won the FOY in 1:43.13 with suspect fitness.
Coal battle won Springboard Mile in 1:39 plus .and Smarty Jones in 1:46 plus. Sovereignty hasn’t been in any race remotely as slow.
I am of the opinion that if Coal Battle is top 4. Sovereignty must be a several levels above.
I have found Common Opponents Handicapping to have almost no value, generally or in the derby.
Sometimes it’s the only measure available.
If two horses defeat a highly regarded opponent. The manner of the defeated must have some significance.
Sandman was a winner that was defeated by Sovereignty maiden. That has to have more significant than Coal Battle defeating him when he had 2 wins and Coal Battle with 3. wins.
Maidens rarely win graded stakes. America Pharoah broke his maiden in a G1 stakes.
Eric – I don’t believe Citizen Bulls style is best to win the KY Derby. His last 3 wins , he has taken the lead in moderate half split and jogged around there for the win. The pace will be hot in the KY Derby, it always is. CB will have to run fast and work hard to get and keep the lead . Can he rate, I’m not sure he can . I prefer Journalism style much better. Journalism always breaks good and fast out of the gate and the jockey lets him get into his rhythm and settles off the pace, not too far off of the leader before making his devistating run. I’m glad CB and Journalism are meeting in the SA Derby. Like Steve said, Baeza May pressure CB or if he Doesn’t, look for Journalism to stay close then go after him in the stretch. IMO Journalism is #1 because he seems to want longer and he breaks sharp and his jockey keeps him in the race where he can make his big run for the win.
Steve,
I like your “Bold” move with American Promise. I hope he turns into the SUPERSTAR he looked like in the Virginia Derby. He has a Triple Crown sounding name!!! Now if he can run to it.
It’s not a bold move. No one else has done enough to be there. Someone had to be.
Not sure if I’m talking to Rod Haskins or Steve Serling, but you were right on point about the Coach ‘running his horses, and not afraid to lose.’
The jockey change, different venue, and drop from graded stakes all were contributing factors that vaulted AP into the Zone.
LOL
LOL
There you are, Lynda! Glad to see a post from you! All OK after the storms?
Steve, I apologize for the off-topic post but I just stumbled on your story from last September on Curlin. As the self-proclaimed number one Curlin fan in the industry, I read anecdotes that I never knew and, your writing, as always was superb. Some of my favorite moments in the sport surround Curlin from winning my first bet in a tiny Italian-American club outside Philadelphia on Preakness day to meeting The Mighty Curlin himself in 2019 in Lexington. As fate would have it, I was at Saratoga on Belmont Stakes day last year with friends in the Turf Terrace and there was only one table empty – directly behind us. After the 5th race, a familiar face sat down and occupied the table. I walked over and dropped my very rare Curlin hat worn by the owners after his Preakness win and asked Steve Asmussen when was the last time you saw this hat? My friend said to Asmussen- you’re meeting the number 1 Curlin fan in America…to which Steve replied, “he may be number 2, bet he’s sure not number 1”!! What a great day. To me, Curlin represents so much of what horse racing should be…a classic distance colt who danced every dance, beat older at 10F, went overseas, raced at 4, tried turf, and now throws off champion sprinters, distaff, and classic distance progeny. Here’s hoping that The Mighty Curlin gets his first Kentucky Derby with Journalism. Thanks Steve.
Glad it rekindled fond memories and you learned more about him. He was a superb physical specimen. .
I remember how Curlin was strutting around like a rock star prior to the 2008 Dubai World Cup. It was almost like he already knew he was going to win. He was one of the most magnificent looking horses I’ve ever seen.
Loved your comments—I too am a huge Curlin fan. This could be his year to get a Derby winner, and, dream big, Triple Crown winner! What article of Steve’s are you referring to (where did you read it).