2025 Kentucky Derby Rankings – Week 9
The first weekend of 100-point races was supposed to start providing answers, but instead gave us only more questions. Let’s look ahead to the final two weeks of preps and analyze how these races might be run, so we can prepare ourselves for whatever they have in store. Remember, the goals of the major contenders may vary depending on what their trainers are looking for to assure their horses peak on Derby Day. ~ Steve Haskin
Derby Rankings: March 24, 2025 – Week 9
By Steve Haskin
1—Journalism (Mike McCarthy, Curlin – Mopotism, by Uncle Mo)
1—Sovereignty (Bill Mott, Into Mischief – Crowned, by Bernardini)
Assuming everyone has read the intro, let’s start with Sovereignty, with his race coming first. Remember, these final preps often wind up with larger fields than projected, as many enter in a final desperate attempt to make the Derby field or strictly as fillers. But it is the accomplished horses and talented late developers on which we are focusing. As of now, the Florida Derby should set up beautifully for him with a fast, contentious pace expected. Neoequos, Madaket Road, and Disruptor are all fast horses, with the last named having only sprinted, and Jimmy’s Daileys wants to be on or just off the pace. Sitting right behind the speed will be Tappan Street, who you know will make an early move to get as much separation from Sovereignty as he can. He will be making only his third career start, but should improve off the Holy Bull. As we mentioned last week, Sovereignty only needs another big stretch run and be charging late to set him up for a peak performance on Derby Day over a track much more conducive to his running style. You don’t want to bottom him out trying to catch some classy speedball down that short stretch. He just needs to keep away from the horses with no speed who don’t belong in the race.
The same goes for Journalism in the Santa Anita Derby, except that he is handier than Sovereignty and can adjust to the pace and allow himself to be placed in a striking position. Also, he’ll have to deal with Citizen Bull and Barnes. The negative obviously is that Journalism will have to deal with two brilliant horses, both on completely different timelines, but the positive is that he doesn’t have to worry about one stealing the race. We’ll see how aggressive they get with the speedy Baeza, but John Shirreffs I would think is looking, or hoping, for second to stamp his ticket to Kentucky and might not want to jeopardize that by getting too aggressive with an inexperienced colt. Another status that will be determined after this weekend’s work will be that of Journalism’s stablemate Bullard, so we could have a tag team match. Baffert also has Gaming and Rodriguez heading to stakes. The former, who has been working brilliantly, was supposed to have run in the Virginia Derby, but came down with a fever and now will run Sunday at Oaklawn in the one-mile Hot Spring Stakes. However the Santa Anita Derby plays out you can bet Journalism will be placed in a position to win or simply get what he needs from the race, which is more important right now. Taking on both Baffert horses makes this the race of the year.
3—Citizen Bull (Bob Baffert, Into Mischief – No Joke, by Distorted Humor)
Even having to face Journalism and Barnes in the Santa Anita Derby, the champ is so fit and so sharp after three six-furlong works and a five-furlong work he is sitting on a huge performance, whether it’s on the lead or experimenting by rating off the pace, something he has not really tried before, but hinting at by breaking off well behind his workmate. What he has going for him from a strategy standpoint is that he doesn’t drag his rider to the lead and get headstrong. Just the opposite in that he just winds up there, relaxes, and gallops his opponents into the ground, then comes home fast, as indicated by his strong late pace figures on Brisnet. Unlike Journalism, if he gets beat his stock likely will fall, as many are still skeptical of him being a true mile and a quarter horse, especially considering he has never been looked in the eye and has had things his own way. Perhaps he is such a big powerfully made colt he just makes everything look easy. The Santa Anita Derby should tell us a lot more about him and how formidable he will be on the first Saturday in May.
4—Barnes (Bob Baffert, Into Mischief – All American Dream, by American Pharoah)
Baffert simply has nowhere else to tun him other than the Santa Anita Derby, so by going against Journalism again and the in-house battle with Citizen Bull we should know all we need to know about him . He worked five furlongs in 1:00 Sunday, second fastest of 41 works at the distance, in company with Rodriguez, who worked an extra furlong. Baffert had been playing his cards so close to the vest with this colt we couldn’t tell if he was holding a full house or simply hadn’t decided how to play his hand, especially with the Santa Anita track being deep and loose and not having a good gauge on how to interpret te works First it looked, at least to most people, to be the Arkansas Derby, but he has handed that assignment over to the wing-footed Cornucopian with his one six-furlong maiden race. Then the Santa Anita Derby, Wood Memorial, and Lexington Stakes were mentioned, but staying home was the most feasible option even though it means aiming his two most potent weapons at each other. The Wood, with the uncertain weather and likely deep tiring track didn’t seem to fit Barnes’ m.o. The strategy for the Santa Anita Derby would seem simple: sit right off Citizen Bull. But when do you make your move? If too early in order to get the jump on Journalism, Citizen Bull will have a lot left and if too late then having to outclose Journalism, which he didn’t come close to doing in the San Felipe. The third option is to just let him run his race and hope he runs well enough to get him into the Kentucky Derby field and he peaks on that day.
5—Coal Battle (Lonnie Briley, Coal Front – Wolfblade, by Midshipman)
Briley finally made the decision we were all hoping for and Bob Baffert made the same decision concerning Cornucopian. As a result we are about to witness arguably the most unusual Derby trail showdown in memory, as the “little guy” from the “little stable” and “little racetrack” who races “everywhere, often, and at all distances” faces the “big guy” from the “big stable” and “big racetrack” who has raced “virtually nowhere, hardly ever, and at one distance.” We are talking seven starts compared to one; four stakes victories compared to none; a $70,000 price tag at a Texas yearling sale compared to a $1.1 million price tag at a Kentucky yearling sale; one owner compared to 10; a trainer who had never won a graded stakes compared to a trainer who has won six Kentucky Derbys and two Triple Crowns. One horse who went off at 88-1 in his second career start compared to a horse who went off at 3-5 in his career debut. It is safe to say we are more familiar with the blue-collar Coal Battle, considered the quintessential scrapper who will beat you any way he can, than we are the aristocratic Cornucopian, who took only one start at six furlongs to convince the racing world he is the next fleet-footed wonder horse. Who knows, maybe the Sandman will put them both to sleep. Stay tuned, you don’t want to miss this one.
6—Captain Cook (Rick Dutrow, Practical Joke – Pow Wow Wow, by Indian Charlie)
Each week I keep finding new nuggets of information that added up make me more and more confident the Withers was a legitimate race that revealed this colt’s true talents. We have discussed his amazing female family, his various speed ratings, his versatility and high cruising speed, and other pertinent pieces of information. I will throw in one more regarding his competition. Mo Quality went into the Withers coming off a second to Coal Battle in the Smarty Jones Stakes and Captain Cook, coming off a maiden sprint, beat him by 16 lengths. It’s just another small piece to a puzzle that keeps coming together and forming the image of a potential Derby horse. As for how he is training during his two-month hiatus, he most recently worked a half in a bullet :47 2/5, with the next fastest work :48 2/5 and eight of the 14 half-mile works over :50. But what will he be up against in the Wood Memorial? With only three career starts it’s difficult to get a good grasp of his preferred running style, but it looks as if he likes to use his tactical speed to sit behind the leaders and run his opponents off their feet with a powerful stretch run, which he has demonstrated by coming home his final eighth :12 3/5 going seven furlongs and 1 1/8 miles, so he can close equally as fast sprinting as he can going 1 1/8 miles. In the Wood, right now I don’t see any pure frontrunners unless they leave it open for Sand Devil, who could take advantage of it and be tougher to catch than he was in the Gotham, although I would prefer to see him rate and not get caught up in any speed duels. Another horse with speed is Grande, who is unbeaten in two starts and has a victory at 1 1/8 miles, but he also looks more like a stalker. The danger could come from directly behind in the form of the unproven Statesman, whose only two victories have been at Tampa Bay with Lasix, and farther back from the late-running Hill Road, who is sitting on a big race, but needs to learn how to change leads. The Wood seems pretty well scripted unless Dutrow has some surprises up his sleeve.
7—Chancer McPatrick (Chad Brown, Mckinzie – Bernardreamy, by Bernardini)
The more we have horses turning in performances they have never turned in before the more we have to revert back to last year and hope the horses with proven class confirm that class at 3 and keep moving forward. For horses like Chancer McPatrick there is little room for error, having only two starts, especially with a major equipment change. I’m not sure if the blinkers hurt or helped him by keeping him closer to the pace than he was when winning the Hopeful and Champagne, but considering how the Tampa Bay Derby played out, with the winner going very slow early and very fast late, I thought he showed enough by racing fairly evenly throughout and keeping pace with Owen Almighty through those fast late fractions. I just hope he hasn’t lost his identity, which was a big late closing kick. He was also running on that quirky Tampa Bay surface, so you really can’t make too many conclusions off his performance. It will all come down to the Blue Grass Stakes, which is usually a fair race. He did come out of the Tampa Derby in good shape, breezing a solid half in :49 2/5 at Payson Park. As for his staying ability we will repeat, his female family has all three Triple Crown winners of the ‘70s, as well as Spectacular Bid and English Triple Crown winner Nijinsky. His Brisnet late pace figures of 105, 109, and 110 at three different distances establish him as the most consistently powerful closer of all the 3-year-olds. So with all the unpredictable performances, both winning and losing, making it pretty much a crap shoot after the top five or six, we’ll stick with a classy, consistent horse who at this point seems more reliable than most of them.
8—Chunk of Gold (Ethan West, Preservationist – Play For Gold, by Cairo Prince)
I know he was beaten 2 ¼ lengths by Tiztastic in the Louisiana Derby, but I loved the way he ran and was the only one of the six horses racing within three lengths of that :22 4/5 and :46 4/5 pace who was doing any running at the end and was able to split the winner and the third-place finisher, both of whom took advantage of the pace collapse by rallying from last and next-to-last. And he even galloped out the strongest of all. I also like the way he kicked into gear and closed in quickly on the two leaders on the turn while several of the other pace horses were backing up or already out of it. The two classy horses still in front of him tuning for home – John Hancock and Built – would finish four and five lengths behind him. I also wrote in detail after the Risen Star what a huge race he ran to be second, and we haven’t seen any other horse turn in such strong back-to-back races in major preps this year. He has now run first or second in all four of his races at four different distances from six furlongs to 1 3/16 miles on dirt and synthetic. And on top of all that, how can you not root for a horse who sold as a yearling for $2,500, is by a stallion who stands for $5,000, and whose 32-year-old trainer has had mostly claimers and gallops his own horses. And don’t get too caught up on that price. He didn’t have a clean vet sheet, but his breeder Bret Jones of Airdrie Stud said he was a good strong colt, and their main vet assured him he was going to be fine. But it sure is a great story.
9—Tiztastic (Steve Asmussen, Tiz the Law – Keesha, by Tapit)
Asmussen’s adventures on the Derby trail this year have been a microcosm of what racing fans have experienced. First he has a speedball named Magnitude run the race of his life by demolishing a solid field in the Risen Star Stakes by 9 ¾ lengths at 43-1 and immediately losing him to a bone chip. Gone was the sure favorite for the Louisiana Derby. But enter Tiztastic, the complete opposite of Magnitude. He is a stone closer with no speed who comes from far out it, but doesn’t seem to know how to win, at least on dirt with a second, two thirds, and two fifth-place finishes. So with the loss of the brilliant Magnitude, Asmussen summons the steady, but far slower, Tiztastic, from Oaklawn Park to pinch hit in the Louisiana Derby. Sent off at 7-1, not very good odds for a horse who just closed at 119-1 in the Derby Future Wager, he lollygags as usual at the back of the pack, but takes advantage of fast fractions and a pace collapse and comes flying home to by 2 ¼ lengths. Was it the longer distance of the race, the pace meltdown, or a combination of both? Whatever the answer, Asmussen has pulled off the switcheroo of the year and once again has a serious Derby contender with the late kick and pedigree to be a legitimate contender. The reason he isn’t ranked higher up is that he’s never run this well before and his Thoro-Graph numbers going in gave no indication of it happening. When a horse pairs a new high, especially when it isn’t high enough, you want to see a big forward move. When you see the same number you start questioning if that’s how good he is. When you see it a fourth time you’re petty convinced that’s who he is. In Tiztastic’s last four starts his Thoro-Graph numbers were “7, 7 ¾, 7, and 7 ¼.” That’s not close to being a serious Derby contender. We’ll have a better idea if he is now when the numbers come out.
10—Burnham Square (Ian Wilkes, Liam’s Map – Linda, by Scat Daddy)
His stock dropped from 15-1 to 35-1 in the Future Wager, but if you thought so highly of him to bet him at 15-1, rather than abandon him because of one mediocre performance over a track on which he didn’t seem comfortable and was beaten only three lengths by the Derby second choice and many’s first choice, this would seem to be a good time to load up on more stock to try to double your money. In looking at his Thoro-Graph pattern, after pairing up “7’s” off a career debut “10” he improved big-time to a “4” in the Holy Bull. Contrary to what most feel about his Fountain of Youth performance, he did not regress at all. By pairing up that “4,” he should now once again improve several points, which would put him in a perfect position to peak on Derby Day. Although I don’t rely heavily on Beyer figures, he still ran a faster number in the Fountain of Youth than he did in the Holy Bull. He also has a huge effort at Keeneland, which was his home track last fall. In his last work, he drilled five furlongs in a sharp 1:00 3/5 at Palm Meadows, galloping out six furlongs in 1:13 1/5. Wilkes said he’s been a pleasant surprise and “just keeps improving.” It is possible he comes from a quirky family, as his dam Linda produced three colts, two of whom were gelded and the other never ran. Wilkes said if he wasn’t gelded he wouldn’t be where he is now, and added that he has a great mind. Also note that his dam and second dam were both Grade 2 winners and his third dam is by Secretariat, out of a multiple Grade 3 winner.
11—American Promise (Wayne Lukas, Justify — Tapella, by Tapit)
Lukas said he may have to run him once more before the Derby, possibly in the Lexington. The reason why could very well be explained by someone who admittedly has no interest in horse racing. One of the best racing podcasts on YouTube is the relatively new Talkin’ Track, with Ryan Stillman, with his infectious exuberance, and Aaron Halterman, who is quite the ubiquitous presence with a number of fast=paced shows under the umbrella of Racing Dudes. The most entertaining feature on Talkin’ Track is Stillman’s sister, a champion equestrian rider who has represented the United States in international competition, critiquing several horses running in that week’s stakes on the Derby trail based solely on a single random photo of each one. It’s all in fun, but, amazingly, she is often spot on. Before the Virginia Derby she was given a photo of American Promise, which was pretty unflattering, with his fully outstretched neck and low head carriage out of proportion with his stride. Although she seemed aghast looking at him and said he “needed to go back into his stall,” she did admit he was gorgeous, but added he looked to be “bigger and heavier than he should be.” She may have been dead wrong as a handicapper, but I believe she nailed it just from a physical sense, saying “I have never seen anything quite like this,” as if looking at some unfamiliar species. But even Lukas called him a “big growthy horse” who stands 17 hands, and pointed out he is a May foal, so he is still in the awkward stage, growing into that big body, which explains why he looked like a Sherman tank on four legs coming down the stretch. We have no idea how good he might be once all the pieces fit together and we see the final product. That could be why Lukas feels he needs to run him again to keep him fit while he is maturing physically and not let that massive body sit around for seven weeks. We saw him do that with another big muscular late-developing chestnut who he ran twice for a claiming tag and then ran in the Lexington in his 14th career start two weeks after the Santa Anita Derby. Charismatic won the Lexington and two weeks later captured the Kentucky Derby at 30-1.
12—Sandman (Mark Casse, Tapit – Distorted Music, by Distorted Humor)
Although he worked five furlongs in 1:03 1/5 for Saturday’s Arkansas Derby, he looked strong down the stretch and had a huge gallop-out and didn’t pull up until well down the backstretch. No one knows how Cornucopian is going to run or how fast he’ll go early, but for Sandman the key horse could be Speed King and whether he will be able to put enough pressure on this unknown phenom who people know little or nothing about, but still pour their money on him. And Wayne Lukas has a colt he recently received named Bestfriend Rocket who has stalking speed. The other big longshots have no speed, one of whom is the maiden Publisher who was fast-closing fourth in the Rebel Stakes for Steve Asmussen. For Sandman, all the excuses are behind him and he now has to step up and earn his way into the Derby. And he still has Coal Battle to get past as well. But if he gets a good pace setup and doesn’t lose it at the break, and Cornucopian is mortal, he has the talent and the closing punch to win or at least get second. You can’t put it any simpler than co-owner Terry Finley did: “He’s ready.”
KNOCKING AT THE DOOR
I admit I have no clue what to do about Jeff Ruby winner FINAL GAMBIT. I love everything I’ve seen and I feel he could be special, but he is such a complete unknown on dirt we have no idea if he’s even remotely the same horse we have seen blow his field away in the stretch in his last two starts, duplicating his jaw-dropping maiden score on Saturday. Even Juddmonte’s Garrett O’Rourke said after the race all they can do is send him to Keeneland and see how he handles the dirt. But even that is no guarantee he’ll have that same powerful punch in the Derby.
The last time we saw something like this was when Animal Kingdom won convincingly at Turfway and then made his dirt debut in the Derby. It wasn’t until he turned in a sensational work at Churchill Downs a week before the race that he became a serious contender. And of course he not only won he turned into a top-class horse on all surfaces on both coasts and in Dubai.
One reason I am so tempted to put Final Gambit in the top 12 is that his pedigree is almost all dirt, and you have to be impressed with the way he not only blew by the entire field in one fell swoop, one of the horses was also closing fast from the back of the back and finished second, and he swept right past him. But you also have to ask why Brad Cox stabled him at Turfway from the beginning and hasn’t tried him on dirt. I know he was immature and is just now finding himself and turning into an exciting racehorse, but it is still a dilemma and will be until he turns in an Animal Kingdom-like work and provides some hope for the Derby.
That strong closer he ran right by was runner-up FLYING MOHAWK, who presents the same dilemma as Final Gambit, making his dirt debut in the Kentucky. But so far he has run on the grass at Saratoga, Kentucky Downs, Aqueduct, Churchill Downs, and Fair Grounds, and now on the synthetic at Turfway, so he at least has acclimated to a new track every time he’s run. And it’s great to have Whit Beckman back on the Derby trail after Honor Marie last year.
But of course it will party time again for former baseball star Jason Werth, who became the sport’s greatest ambassador last year as part-owner of Dornoch. We got another taste of his exuberance after the Jeff Ruby when he and his partners erupted in celebration, knowing they were in the Derby. “They sure did celebrate,” said Beckman, who admitted the colt is probably a better turf course, but added he has worked on dirt and definitely will love the mile and a quarter. “Jason is very excited,” he continued, “and this could really help his new venture Icon Racing get off the ground. No better press for a new racing syndicate like Derby press.”
The most exciting news to come out of the Jeff Ruby is that MAXIMUM PROMISE, a fast-closing third, could very well make his next start in the English Derby. He has cleared the first payment stage and all trainer Kenny McPeek (who else?) has to do now is convince the owner to go. And remember, his jockey on Saturday was Frankie Dettori. What I find fascinating about this colt, who always puts in a big late run but also has tactical speed, is that he has five English Derby winners in his pedigree, one of whom has sired five English Derby winners. We’re talking of course about super stud Galileo, as well as Nijinsky, Troy, and Mill Reef and his son Shirley Heights. Not only were Mill Reef and Shirley Heights father and son Derby winners, but Shirley Heights’ son Darshaan won the French Derby and also is in Maximum Promise’s pedigree. So if an American horse was ever bred to run in the English Derby it is this guy.
But the best news to come out of the Jeff Ruby is that CALIFORNIA BURRITO, who looked like a winner making a bold move and gettiing a clear lead approaching the top of the stretch, is doing fine after appearing to take a bad step attempting to jump a shadow in the stretch. “Considering my initial fears in that fiasco we are just happy to have him home safe,” said trainer Tom Drury Jr.
POSTER closed some ground in the Jeff Ruby, but considering the swift opening quarter in :22 4/5 took its toll on the speed horses, he had every chance to be right there, but couldn‘t match the power of Final Gambit. I will say, however, Poster, could bounce back with a big race on dirt and might be one to watch in the Preakness. He just seemed duller on the synthetic even though he trained brilliantly over it. But his best races have been on dirt.
So the only Baffert 3-year-old not accounted for is RODRIGUEZ, who I used to have ranked pretty high. Watch out for him in either the Wood Memorial or Blue Grass Stakes. And the way GAMING has been working he no doubt will be tough at Oaklawn, which could serve as a good prep for the Preakness.
Time will tell what happened to CALDERA in the Louisiana Derby. He did stumble pretty badly at the break and had some traffic issues, but the way he stopped so suddenly, as we’ve seen several top horses do this year, and was virtually eased, it wouldn’t be a surprise to learn something happened that affected his breathing. For third-place finisher INSTANT REPLAY this was a big step in the right direction. He has looked great against lesser competition, but couldn’t get close to Sandman in an allowance race, so he proved he belongs in stakes and ran big coming off Lasix. Sixth-place finisher VASSIMO could point for the Peter Pan and possibly the Belmont. Although all horses are different, I believe if you feel compelled to put blinkers on a horse in his final prep he’s probably not ready mentally for the rigors of the Derby, especially the erratic way he ran in the Risen Star. And he wasn’t even tired after the Louisiana Derby. The blinkers certainly can help, but more so in a race like the Peter Pan under more suitable conditions. I still believe this colt has a bright future once he matures a little more and puts it all together..
If one can have a favorite dilemma, mine would be the one that faced the connections of ENTERDADRAGON, who had to decide whether to run in the Florida Derby or the Cutler Bay Stakes at 7 1/2 furlongs on turf. He’s actually not a bad horse and can close, so, even though he is a grass horse it’s no surprise to see him entered in the Florida Derby.
As the Derby gets closer and we attempt to ferret out the winner from a morass of speed figures and hours of studying videos of the leading candidates’ races, we ignore one important fact. We have no idea who these horses are. I’m not sure their trainers really know who they are. Steve Asmussen and Wayne Lukas are two of the greatest trainers of all time, who have trained thousands upon thousands of horses. Do you think they even remotely expected the jaw-dropping performances they saw from Magnitude and American Promise? At the other end of the scale, how surprised was Brendon Walsh, as well as Team Godolphin, by East Avenue’s baffling performance?
So as the week began here, we all were trying to make a case for John Hancock, Tappan Street, Disruptor, and Garamond winning the Kentucky Derby with only three lifetime starts and Cornucopian with only two lifetime starts. How about Barnes, River Thames, Captain Cook, Chunk of Gold, Baeza, Vassimo, and Praetor with only four lifetime starts? Several of those are already off the Derby trail.
TAPPAN STREET and DISRUPTOR, despite having only two lifetime starts, could be the biggest threats to Sovereignty in the Florida Derby. Both are brilliant colts with tactical speed, with the latter making his two-turn debut after a scintillating maiden romp, so we really don’t know enough about them to love them or dismiss them. Tappan Street not only has two career starts, he hasn’t run in two months, so he would go into the Kentucky Derby with three.starts in is life and only one in the last 13 weeks. And speaking of being a disruptor, wouldn’t it be typical of Bob Baffert to knock off one the big Derby favorites with MADAKET ROAD, who is considered no better than a fourth stringer in the Baffert barn.
This is today’s racing. Who knows, maybe not knowing these Derby hopefuls makes it more intriguing and challenging. Instead of merely following Secretariat or Affirmed or Spectacular Bid or any proven class horse with a number of starts at 2 and 3, it can fun in a different way trying to find the hidden gems like Justify or Big Brown or Mage, who no one even heard of going into their 3-year-old campaign. This year the two favorites, Journalism and Sovereignty, will be the experienced veterans with five lifetime starts. But it will be over the next two weeks that we find out who they really are,
Racing historian, author, and award-winning retired journalist for the Daily Racing Form and The Blood-Horse, Steve Haskin was inducted into the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame’s Media Roll of Honor in 2016. Known for his racing knowledge and insightful prose, he has been an exclusive contributor to Secretariat.com since 2020.
Like the Florida Derby, there appear to be some field-fillers entered in the Wood on Saturday at Aqueduct. But Captain Cook, Grande, and Hill Road aren’t bums. Rodriguez might not have such an easy time of it. Especially, if its wet. Those 3 horses train on off-tracks. Has Rodriguez ever set foot on anything other than fast? On the other hand, his speed could lead them on a merry chase.
Wood Memorial mud figs…. Captain Cook 92 / Omaha Omaha 83. The others….zero. If the Wood comes up wet those 2 are is “clear as mud” so to speak.
Was Sovereignty’s Florida Derby enough to sway Steve Haskin one way or the other in breaking the tie at the top?
Personally, I saw the Florida Derby as a positive for Sovereignty. Exactly what I hoped to see. Make a good run in the stretch without getting to the bottom of the horse. A perfect prep for a horse with plenty of points. Well, not perfect with Junior Alvarado watching from the sidelines.
I hope the top 3 in the SA Derby put on a show. In so doing the Godolphin colt will be 5/1 Derby Day.
I would like to see the exact same thing from Journalism on Saturday.
Steve Anderson at DRF is expecting just 5 horses for the Santa Anita Derby. Pretty standard out there. It happens way too often out there IMO. It’s not official yet. The entries haven’t been taken yet. Nobody wants to bet 5-horse fields.
Disappointing.
I see that New York, Aqueduct at least, has joined the bandwagon of offering a ridiculous amount of multi-race wagers. They have a pick-5, pick-4, or pick-6, starting in each of the first 10 races of their 13-race card.
Not in the best interest of racing or the racing fans in particular IMO. I don’t like overlapping bets. One mistake can cost you 4 bets.
With only five entered in the Santa Anita Derby, the points have been reduced by 25 %.
75 points will be awarded to the winner, 37.5 for 2nd and 18.75 for 3rd.
In order to make the KD, Baeza will have to win the SA Derby and Barnes with only 18.75 points, will need a 2nd place finish to make the Derby starting gate.
Journalism, with 47.5 points, has already qualified for the Derby, in which case a win is not necessary. Will Mike McCarthy instruct Umberto Rispoli to go all out for the win?
I’m not so sure that he will.
I would never instruct a jockey not to try and win with a horse and that mean to go all out. He either on his game or he isn’t. If he isn’t don’t push the issue. If he is on you go all out.
Don’t kid yourself, it happens. In an attempt to build up the odds for a future race, and/or conserve their best effort for a future race, (in this case the Derby) trainers have been known to do just that, (not to go all out for the win).
He will be 5-1….trainer might not work them so tight….like Brad did, with Tappan Street—he put in solid works vs Saudi Crown cuz he needed a big showing—Mike has not fully cranked up Journalism…but he wants a win! He’s just not going to fret, should they fall short….but he wants a win, on Saturday..
( didn’t mean to say “he will be 5-1…that was meant for Sovodds…. I am blind as a bat!..
Sovereignty
Pending the outcome of the Blue Grass, Santa Anita Derby and the Wood, the following are my current top 15 prospects, in preferential order:
1) Journalism
2) Sovereignty
3) Citizen Bull
4) Barnes
5) Baeza
6) Tappan Street
7) Sandman
8) Owen Almighty
9) River Thames
10) Chancer McPatrick
11) Instant Replay
12) Final Gambit
13) American Promise
14) Flood Zone
15) Coal Battle
Hi Bill,
No Love for Hill Road. The colt finished 3rd in two graded stakes won by Citizen Bull and Owen Almighty.
Baeza has only MSW win like Hill Road. But Hill Road won his maiden race with 132lbs and no RDM. Baeza broke his maiden with 121lbs and Lasix.
CP
I would add Captain Cook at number 16, on my list. I have no love for Hill Road.
I expect a big effort from Grande in the Wood, in the capable hands of your favorite trainer, Todd Pletcher. Dylan Davis has replaced John Velazquez who is scheduled to ride in the Dubai Derby on Saturday.
Good luck with Hill Road.
Will Flood Zone find his way back from Dubai? I still don’t like that move.
Just checked forecast for Saturday. Neither Aqueduct or Keenland.
Neither looks very good weather wise, Keeneland more so than Aqueduct.
TS, rain day and night Thur through Sat at Keeneland.
That’s so discouraging.
One thing is certain about the next Derby Rankings. Sandman moves WAY up, possibly to #4. Tappan Street finds a nice spot in the middle, and I’m guessing Coal Battle drops near the bottom of the rankings. There’s no reason to separate the top two, as Journalism gets his final prep test on Saturday.
I have rewatched the race—Sandman was not “flying”—I Lije the horse—but am not in awe of him! He went past tiring horses! Watch him ALONE, and not the horses he passes. .he almost looks one-paced….I’ll bet Steve doesn’t have him as high as a lot on here think….in fact—the maiden ran at least as well….
You’re on!
I’ll second that Tony, and up the ante.
I tend to agree with you that Sandman was not finishing particularly fast. If I read it right his last 1/4 was a bit over 25.6 and his last 3f were right around 38.5. A tad on the slow side when looking for a Derby winner. He had the perfect set up to beat a maiden and 2nd out sprint winner. Coal Battle looked all in after the wire, Cornucopian actually passed him soon after the finish line.
His final eighth was in :13. Well within the range of previous derby winners.
Final 3/8 in ~38.5 is historically three lengths too slow in KY. Final panel just shy of 13 is more respectable. I’d prefer a sub 12.8 but a tenth or two is arguably hair splitting. If I was betting on the old dosage index theory then this guy is blessed, but that thing has been out the window for a decade or more. Seems like the type that will pass a bunch of tired horses and flatten out, maybe finishing 6th or something like that. Maybe a Belmont type in a normal year but the Belmont is not the Belmont this year.
Captain Cook seems immovable. A 9F win in 1:53 plus is hardly any reason to have the colt in the 12.
Factually incorrect.
For the sake of conversation, I have the top three in the KD as Sandman, Tiztastic, and Journalism. With Luxor Cafe as a wild card. All are bred for the distance, with only Journalism due to show his skill set soon. Seems to me that winning against stiff competition and maturity are good indicators in a very crowded race.
Those “good indicators” aren’t as reliable as they used to be.
William, we’re on a very similar plane here. How quickly the crowd has forgotten the incomparable Cornucopian. Cornuwho?
Curious if we’ve got Thoros on Publisher? Still a maiden, but looks like he’s in the Derby with 60 points overall & after a decent second place in AR Derby. Asmussen is shipping him to CD today and thinks he’s improving/had positive things to say about him after the AR Derby.
Another from the All Other FDFW pool and one I think has potential to be an exotics spoiler. I’d be surprised if a maiden won the renewal but not shocked. Seems like one that could clunk up at a healthy price for a piece of the pie like Commanding Curve or Golden Soul. The horse reminds me a bit of Rich Strike or Country House. Both had similar breeding on top with a late kick but just couldn’t find the winner’s circle in a prep. If Prat stays on, then that would be a big plus.
Overnight tidbits-
Post race interview with Lonnie Briley –
He needed 4 works, got 3. Spaced the timing of works out. Will not make that mistake again.
Mike Smith, Jockey on Madakaat Road –
Two or three in front of me were flying, I was running fast.
Midnight Olive – saw recent photos of her first foal by Not This Time. Have to say just about the prettiest foal I have ever seen.
Rattle and Roll – training video from Dubai. Looking sharp!
Forever Young – video. This colt loves the camera! He looks fabulous!
Have a great week everyone.
Lynda that’s a telling response, by Mike–those colts WERE flying past! Pace was solid but not crazy fast, Sovereignty and Tappan Street look like true Derby contenders!
MatthewW, I thought the same.
Just chilling until this weekend’s races are over to pick a top 5.
8 horse field – Dubai Derby
3 representing Japan – Admire Daytona, Dragon, Shin Forever
Draw –
1. Don In The Mood
2. Queen Azteca (filly)
3. Admire Daytona
4. Dragon
5. Flood Zone
6. Heart of Honor
7. Shin Forever
8. Rafid
And one gets to go in The Derby….I know Forever Young got in this way–the Saudi Derby winner isn’t even running…
European Road and UAE Road was combined, not sure what year.
Luxor Cafe won two legs of the Japan Road and has an automatic gate should the connections make that call.
The Saudi Derby winner, Golden Vekomma was supposed to run in UAE Derby, not sure why those plans changed.
Shin Forever took second in the Saudi Derby.
He didn’t come out of the Saudi Derby in good shape- he’s not expected to run again this year
Heart of Honor is very talented – hopefully the blinkers will help him show a bit more speed. I’d love to see him here – after this race, there’s nothing for him in Europe
Thank you for information on GV, I had not heard. That is unfortunate, hope he will recover.
You’re welcome !
I have not checked out all the entries for UAE Derby.
I did see your post about Heart of Honor to David’s
Do not follow odds, just check them from time to time.
Curently
HOH is 5/1
Shin Emperor 4/1
Flood Zone 9/4
Betsy, Jamie Osborne might follow the same path as he did with Toast of New York.
UAE Derby is a 100-pt. race so the runner up gets 50 pts. and could be in as well. It has happened before with Plus Que Parfait and Gray Magician not long ago.
Flood Zone already has 50 points.
David, Heart drew post 6 in the UAE Derby
I’m not thrilled that Jamie is pulling the nepotism bit and riding Saffie again; the previous jock had done nothing wrong
Bettors on Twitter were furious at Saffie for giving Heart a terrible ride. I can’t say if she did or didn’t, but they will be pissed off again
Betsy, to be truthful I wasn’t impressed with the ride last time and blaming the horse for not keeping position was a stretch. You put a horse in a stressful position they will inevitably back out of it.
Post 6 should be good for Heart of Honor just let the horse run, Saffie. Jamie will give good instructions.
Racing Post has Flood Zone 9/4, Shin Forever 4/1, Heart of Honor at 5/1 they are the three favorites. Fingers crossed.
Betsy, Bon voyage in a few days, is Kent your starting point or Yorkshire?
FUN FACTS!
The 2024 GODOLPHIN GANG TRAIN has come to an abrupt halt in 2025. The once feared marauders led by gunslinger EAST AVENUE, have been relegated to a bunch of ‘has beens’. East Avenue opened his 2025 season firing a ‘cork gun’ and devouring a healthy size bowl of ‘choco dust dirt’ for 10th place in the Risen Star as the favorite.
Sidekick POSTER galloped into the Sam F Davis and was immediately greeted with a
OWE-n ALMIGHTY HAN-COCK double slap till his jowls jiggled him into a 3rd place finish. He was down, but not out, till FINAL GAMBIT extinguished his hope to make the big dance.
The Gang looked to FIRST RESORT to assist in restoring their respective reputation, but he came up ‘gimpy’ after making a series of serious preparations for his showdown in the Battaglia.
Last but not least, the #1 leader SOVEREIGNTY was called upon to rectify the gangs downward slide. It was not to be! Low n behold, Sovereignty was mugged by unranked TAPPAN ‘I kicked your a** down the’ STREET. Bruised ego, but lives to fight another day in Louisville.
Word is, the Gang has been negotiating to possibly bring a little international renowned gunslinger who goes by the name of Opera Ballo by way of the UAE Derby, to resurrect the GODOLPHIN GANG back to it’s once respected status and representation in the ‘Showdown of all Gunfights’, the KD Derby. We’ll see how that unfolds.
This a very unfaltering post regarding the Godolphin contingent. Was this necessary?
I would never count out the Boys in Blue. The year is still young, and the game is one of ups and downs.
East Avenue will have a chance to redeem himself in the Blue Grass. Sovereignty is on course to win the KD based on the trend of the last 4 years.
2021 – Risch Strike – 3rd in Final prep.
2022 – Medina spirit 2nd final prep. Mandaloun off the board in his final prep
2023 – Mage 2nd final prep
2024 – Mystik Dan 3rd final prep
SWITCH YEARS ACCORDINGLY
Counter Point, while you and I often disagree, regarding the above post from 4:13 AM, we do.
I found comparing Godolphin to what amounts to the “Gunfight at the OK Corral” to be insulting and the descriptions abusive and brutal and borderline bullying.
The imagery of a 3 year old colt “firing a cork gun”, “devouring a healthy size bowl of choco dust dirt”; double slap until his jowls jiggled him into third place”; “coming up gimpy”; “mugged”; ” I kicked your a** DOWN the street” to be the most offensive commentary I have read in over 15 years of following racing blogs across multiple media sites.
I do not think Bill Mott was going to empty the tank to win the race.
Nobody kicked Sovereignty’s ass! I would love to book your derby wagers!
kmi. What’s wrong with you?
It’s premature to write an obituary this early, even in jest. Godolphin finally figured things out with their last KD runner, Essential Quality. Now they have a decent chance of crowding the winner’s circle on May 3 with Sovereignty.
EQ probably wins that Derby if it wasn’t postponed.
Shoulda, woukda, coulda…
Wrong derby. 😮
You are way off base. Sovereignty has a very good chance to win the Derby.
East Avenue will get a chance to join the Derby field on Saturday.
Sovereignty closed very well…that was not a torrid pace—and he was already in—right now he’s my #1….should Journalism close well this Sat he will probably be my #1—Sovereignty is sitting on s big performance ….
Rodriguez drew the rail, in a 12-horse Wood Memorial—once again Bob will send….if Rod can catch a breather, and not do a :45 1/5—-I’m looking forward to cashing on him—in a race like this…the stalkers will tire, from chasing—and closers will fill out the exacta/trifecta—Rod has looked good of late—
Matthew, good luck with Rodriguez but after his last performance I can’t see how flying to New York for a race with extra distance extra on a tiring track like Aqueduct is going to help his cause but stranger things have happened I guess.
Well if he runs like his San Felipe he’s in trouble….I think he’s better than that…
Matt
I think he will experience the same fate as Gaming and Cornucopia unless he proves to be a “mud” loving fool.
Rid is an underage colt with a 60 year old rider—has got to send from the rail post–Ican do noting about the weather, I just really like the horse….and just might get a good price—Bob hasn’t done very well with his shippers this Spring—we will know soon enough!
Matthew, I thought sending Madaket Road to the Florida Derby was a good try but the horse is definitely a miler; Cornucopian was simply a prayer from the racing gods; Gaming was simply bad luck; Getaway Car was a precocious 2 year old so I didn’t expect much.
Not your usual results from Bob Baffert shipping East.
50% chance rain Saturday staring around 1.
High 57.
Almost forgot.
Happy Birthday Secretariat
I almost forgot, too! Thanks for that reminder, Lynda!
Come on Lynda!
Lynda Man O War too …I think Saturday—108th birthday..I know it’s Sacretariat’s blog, but they really are historically related , they’re both Big Reds ….
MOW was 29th.
Final thought today.
Will be awaiting to see what our fearless leader does with Luxor Cafe.
Lynda have you heard any positive news about Luxor Cafe running in the Kentucky Derby? Racing Post wasn’t enthusiastic about the connections running him in Kentucky at all.
Nothing yet.
Thanks Lynda.
Lynda, I just noticed in a Coolmore promotion page for American Pharoah they have stated that Luxor Cafe is Derby bound. Not sure if that is just license or a true state of fact.
Davids, I saw that too.
Steve has a connection in Japan, Kate, an American.
She is the liason between Japan and the US.
Perhaps she has some insight he will share with us.
Watched the replay of the race again last night. Think he is a real contendor.
I agree with you, Lynda, Luxor Cafe has been impressive all along.
I still have “connections”…not like Steve …he’s CONNECTED—I heard Barnes will run at Santa Anita IF he runs at all….I heard Citizen Bull is READY…I heard Journalism looked better yesterday (than last work)….I am waiting to see where Rodriguez ships, and planning on performing a cashecktomy on him!!!…Rid may end up Bob’s best….
(Rod)..
First Division suffered a quarter crack that opened up and bled in the Arkansas Derby per Kenny McPeek.
Should be back racing soon.
When you see a son of Tapit winning his two first races logging 44 and 1:08 and annihiliating the competition you automatically think he is a special horse. That phonom was Flightline… with stamina pedigree that kind of speed it was clear he was destined to break track records going longer…!
I felt the same watching late bloomer 3-year-old Clever Again winning the mile of the Hot Spring Stakes 2 hours ago at Oaklawn.
If you see a son of American Pharoah out of a GALILEO mare (Flattering) who was a stayer winner at 12 furlongs, you would assume that the horse is a long distance specialist … and on the turf… but Clever Again is a very fast horse with very rich and resilient speed on dirt. Winning in 1:37 flat finishing in 12 3/5 is really outstanding for Oaklawn track.
I trust Steven Asmussen would plot a sensible schedule for this intriguing prospect as
Clever Again is in a ideal position to be a headliner the second half of the year for the winningest trainer in America…
Strangely enough Clever Again was an individual entry in pool 5 of the KY Derby Futures even though they had no intention of him making a run at the KY Derby. Just another indication of the greed that CD demonstrates to get your buck. I am hard pressed to believe that they didn’t know this when they set the field.
Three sire lines dominate my top 16 Derby prospects. Those sire lines are as follows:
Mr. Prosector:
Journalism
River Thames
Tappan Street
Chancer McPatrick
Instant Replay
Grande
Baeza
Burnham Square
Northern Dancer:
Sovereignty
Citizen Bull
Barnes
Tappan Street
Captain Cook
Bold Ruler/A.P. Indy:
Sandman
Tiztastic
Coal Battle
Question: Which sire line will the 2025 Kentucky Derby winner descend from?
You could make a case for Mr. Prospector, or Northern Dancer.
I don’t believe the three prospects from the Bold Ruler/A.P. Indy sire line will have an impact in the Derby, although you could make a case for Sandman.
Bottom line, there are currently eight Derby prospects on the Derby trail that are descendants from the Mr. Prospector sire line, vs five from the Northern Dancer sire line. I’ll go out on a limb and predict a descendant from the Mr. Prospector sire line will win this year’s Kentucky Derby.
The first Derby winner from Mr. Prospector sire line was Unbridled (1990) since then there have been 16 winners from that line (46%), seven (20%) KD winners came from Northern Dancer sire line, and only two descended from A.P. Indy (Bold Ruler) Orb and California Chrome.
The rest came from Buckpasser (2), Ribot (1), Raise a Native (3), Great Above (1), Caro(1), Blushing Groom (1), and Hail to Reason(1).
My bets are on Journalism, Chancer McPatrick and/or Burnham Square … all from the Mr. Prospector sire lines… it is to be expected as the family trees in America are ultrasaturated of Mr. Prospector blood…
Hi Nelson
Thanks for providing those interesting stats. I’m with you, Journalism is my current Derby prospect. The outcome of the upcoming 100-point prep races on April 5th, should provide a clearer picture on the top Derby prospects.
Since winning the Tampa Bay Derby, Owen Almighty has been flying under the radar. I expect to see him in the Blue Grass, and I’m hopeful he makes a good accounting of himself. Yesterday, he worked a bullet 5 furlongs in 1:00.75, (1/7).
The thing that impresses me most about Owen Almighty, he’s a fighter, always giving his all, never giving up. His fighting demeanor is a plus, and something you look for in the KD 20 horse field.
Hats off to the connections for taking a shot at the Derby, these opportunities are few and far between.
I totally justify your enthusiasm around Owen … he has been so consistent since his second in the Iroquous Stakes back in September where he left Sandman and Magnitude seven and nine lengths behind him … his running times at Tampa has been equally impressive.
However, I see Chancer McPatrick turning the tables in the Blue Grass especially because your other favorite horse, River Thames, will be bothering Owen Almighty with his natural speed.
But I am sure Owen Almighty will be fighting like hell in the 1 1/18 mile and migth very well fulfill your expectations… after all it is horse racing !
Thanks for the reply, Nelson
Yes indeed, the Blue Grass is shaping up to be a better Derby prep race than the Florida Derby, IMO. Obviously, the top finishers in the Santa Anita Derby should provide two or three Derby starters as well.
There haven’t been any major contenders exiting the Wood, in recent years, so unless Captain Cook or Grande make a big impression coming out of that race, I’ll look elsewhere.
BTW, I expect to see Sandman making a significant move up on Steve’s Derby Rankings, Week 10.
What if its Sand Devil wh makes an impression?
Nelson,
It seems hard to believe it has been 35years since Unbridled won the KD. I can remember that race as it was yesterday. Trainer Carl Nafzger telling the owner, Mrs Genter (who couldn’t see very well) he was going to win the Derby. Brings goosebumps to my skin just thinking about it. Thanks for the memory
Yes DTS … this macho man has to cry every time he watches the video of Mrs. Genter hearing Nafzger’s real time rendering of the race… it is beyond words!
Watching one interview of Pat Day I had to cry again when he described the moving scene of Mrs. Genter with her arms crossed by her chest. The legendary jockey explained why his mount Summer Squall lost momentum when the crowd reacted stridently as the race caller mentioned his name… but he conceded that God has a time and place for every one… and that was Mr. Genter time.
*Mrs. Genter time
Now you got my eyes welling up!!!
Thanks, incredible stats
Edit: I neglected to add Owen Almighty as a Derby prospect from the Mr. Prospector line. That would make it eight from his line.
Edit: Make that nine from the Mr. P line.
I must be losing it, I have Tappan Street listed with Mr. P and ND.
Please excuse.
Come on Bill,
How does Final Gambit not make your top 16?
Your Mr. P list is missing Publisher by American Pharoah. That one reminds me a bit of Country House and could be sitting on a big one. Raise A Native have been dominant in the Derby over the years and has even taken down a couple superfectas (2012, 2017). The impact value is something like 2 without doing any handicapping. They’re not always through Mr. P either. Super Saver, Monarchos, Strike the Gold, Alysheba, Genuine Risk, Affirmed, and Majestic Prince were Raise A Native winners not by my way of Mr. P. I’d put my money on RAN/Mr. P before Northern Dancer but sometimes a ND pulls it off like Dan last year.
I was surprised that Disruptor was taken back to last out of the gate in the Florida Derby. I couldn’t see any problems out of the gate. I think that it was the plan. Disruptor followed Sovereignty. But not moving as quickly. Disruptor got 5th and some Derby points. But not nearly enough to get in.
I think Disruptor broke slowly instead of being intentionally taken back.
The Santa Anita Derby will likely have two of the top three consensus Derby choices at this point. The anticipation is palpable in Derby world. But an expected short field may provide us with limited data to analyze for Derby handicapping. Citizen Bull has the most to lose. If he gives up the lead after moderate or slow fractions, he’ll drop far down the rankings. But Journalism will not be significantly downgraded if he’s a good second to CB.
The deepest of the final preps is the Blue Grass Stakes, with four graded stakes winners and a fifth who was second by a neck in a G2. I will not be surprised if the KD winner came from the BGS. The historical king of the final preps, however, is the Florida Derby. Tappan Street and Sovereignty are major players.
After riding Rock Your World to victory in the 2021 Santa Anita Derby, Umberto Rispoli was replaced by Joel Rosario in the Derby. I don’t remember the circumstances. Will they let Rispoli have the ride in the Derby this year?
Rock Your World finished 17th of 19 in that 2021 Derby. That was the infamous Mandaloun/Medina Spirit Derby. The one when BB set the all-time record for Kentucky Derby wins with seven. One more than Ben Jones. All that was before they gave BB a gut-punch to the stomach and took it away from him. He remains tied with Jones.
After being banned from Churchill and all their properties, BB is expected to be back at the Twin Spires for the 2025 Derby. I didn’t really like any of BB’s horses this year. Not for a mile and a quarter. But I’ve come around on Citizen Bull after watching a couple of his workouts. I’ll probably regret not using Citizen Bull in any of my Derby Future exactas. One more Future Pool to go. Keying Sovereignty and Journalism is some exactas with a few prospective longshots seems the best policy. Taking a chance on Rispoli. No offense.
They were making too much noise at the casino.
Looks like an irony that horse racing needs the casino to subsist and this time the casino is the reason to cancel races ! What happened at Aqueduct is odd … this kind of conflict is suppossed to be avoided by planning and coordination… who knows!
Sad
BSF for Florida Derby came up light. 94
KD winner should come out of the SA Derby or Bluegrass- most likely SA derby
I am with you there Jeff … The more I review the replays of the preps the more I am convinced that Journalism is the true leader of this crop… and I also expect a breaktrhrough performance from Chancer McPatrick in the Blue Grass…
But Journalism is a towering figure in my mind … and I hope the Santa Anita Derby will convince everyone about his Triple Crown prospects…
Nelson, I’d hold my tongue until the races have been run and won. Racing can make you feel quite foolish at times.
You are too serious Davids… We all have our favorite horses not only based on their perceived talent but also on what they might accomplish in our fancied future.
Horse players can not wait for races to be run and won … when I am betting I put my money where my tongue is … so how can I hold my tongue? … it would mean I would never bet again on horse racing… which would be good be good news to my wife …LOL
Agree! Journalism seems to be the one, but the Bull working out like a monster. Journalism still has to beat the champ, which won’t be easy.
You are rigth Jeff… the Bull has the upper hand … but what impresses me the most about Journalism is that he is pretty quick out of the block… then he settles and pounds like the great ones.
The only Baffert speedster that has not fallen under Journalism’s sword is Citizen Bull … but the champ better has his best running horseshoes this Saturday if they want to escape being another fallen gladiator in the arena of the West…!
Agree, especially in a small field where the pace scenario gets clouded. That said, his approximate six second final half in the San Felipe was numbing and I don’t think CB will hold him off if he runs that beautiful in the stretch again.
Nelson, who’s serious? Lol. Top line professional sports gamblers have a winning percentage of around 53 – 55 %. I have relatives who are on-course bookmaker in England and Australia so I know who wins at the races.
Here in Australia, there is a responsible gambling message attached to any mention of betting starting “Chances are you are about to lose…What’s gambling really costing you?
When watching the races this message must be blasted at you 100 times or more as the TAB advertises unmercifully during the races. Now that’s being serious. Lol.
24 canadian dollars
Nelson, it’s poker machine (slot machines)at RSL Clubs (Returned Services League) and Casinos (more slot machines) where the general public loose their money but racing has to take the medicine as well.
It’s hilarious you have guys giving you the odds etc then at the end they have to tell you “Chances you are about to lose… it’s absurd and the message is just simply ignored.
Like yourself most people have a small kitty to flutter with but at the slot machines the mind is ‘dead’ and the arm keeps pulling the lever. They won’t even leave to visit the toilet they use empty bottles. Unbelievable.
See that by every Dec. Some already know which horse has the Derby locked up.
What are you looking for in regard to a particular speed figure?
At this stage of game, BSF should have a range of 98-105
Okay. Is that in the last prep or any race?
The final 3/8th from the top two was about 1.3 seconds faster than in the Ark which had a goofy pace scenario. I’m skeptical of the DRF and Equibase figures from either race. Will see what the Rags has in a day or two. Kudos to Steve for not biting on all the Cornucopian hype and only giving the horse a brief mention.
This blog is heating up as is the KY Derby Trail. Looking forward to Journalism’s run in the SA Derby. A lot of quality closers in the Derby Field that Journalism can use his tactical ability to get first jump on when the real running starts.
Sovereignty and Journalism are the two quality closers this year…Ark Derby had a pace collapse—Tappan Street LOOKS like a ten furlong horse—I strongly believe Tappan Street and Sovereignty would have finished well clear, in the Ark Derby—they finished very well against much softer splits—over a track that does not favor closers…
Well, here it is the next day. It’s a reason I wait till the next day to comment and not get all lathered up with knee-jerk remarks or engage in gloating about a certain horse(s) nor their trainer.
It is what it is. Twice I mentioned last week that I would not predict the outcomes but just to watch. And what I saw was a Florida Derby that was uninspiring and had all the looks of the first two finishers passing a couple of tired horses. But a win is a win and Derby points are still rewarded.
The Arkansas Derby was a different story. The winner, Sandman, has all the looks of a Kentucky Derby winner. In spite of drifting out this horse powered down the stretch for the victory. Impressed.
Now for Cornucopian. Wasn’t impressed that this horse was taken into a suicidal pace with Speed King. I kept hearing the announcer naming off the splint times and thought…no, no, no. It’s easy to sit back and discharge disparaging cheap shots but I’m not going to question a successful trainer such as Baffert. He has his own reasons.
I decided not to predict because I have my own reasons. That said, Cornucopian lost. Period. End of the race. However, I read today, in another website, that if Cornucopian would have won he (C) wasn’t going to the KD but the Preakness. That’s from another website. Again, Baffert has his reasons.
Which leads up to next weekend. The Santa Anita Derby, as of now, appears to be the premier KD prep race of the year. With Sovereignty giving a respectable but moderate finish look for Journalism to jump to the head of the class all by himself for some. And going against the champ, Citizen Bull, might produce to top two favorites for KD.
Well see.
If your racing knowledge is what you advertise, then it’s evident one can ruin a good horse by throwing him into a race well over his experience. Agree?
No. What Baffert sees in horse nobody else sees. Again, he had his reasons. If you don’t agree then don’t bet the horse. I was more concerned about shipping the horse a second time (3400 round trip miles the first time and 1700 on a one way trip the second). It’s quite a difference of a horse like Taiba that stayed home for his first two races and this situation. But A lot of betters did bet on C since he closed at 4-5.
John, thanks for your reply. We’ll have to agree to disagree.
John,
Sandman won an A K Kerby in which the 8F slit was 1:37.11 with a final time of 1:50+.
Tappan Street won A F L Derby in which the 8F split was 1:36+ with a final time of 1:49+
The average 8F split for the last 21 KD is 1:36.+. The 9F split is 1:49 +
The F L Derby is one of the major preps associated with KD winners. Far more than the A K Derby. I wouldn’t be so dismissive of the top 2 in the FL Derby.
NB: Sovereignty’s best performance was delivered at CD. The surface at the location appears to stride mechanics. Surface does matter.
Not dismissive, but not impressed as well.
Last five furlongs was 1:04.83….of course Sandman shaded that by around 1.5 seconds—but that’s still slower that the 1:02.5 last five furlongs at Gulfstream–and the one/two shaded THAT too…..-I like Sandman, I bet on him and also have Futures on him….but Sovereignty looked better (to me)and so did Tappan Street….Mr Beyer disagrees—Sandman got a 99 and Tappan a 94—I’ve done better in The Derby than Beyer!..
(1:02.05)….fla derby
Publisher had a randy start and got pinched…he is a legit contender AND—has seasoning….
(Tardy not randy! I’m blind!)…
Thank gawd…I thought I had missed an epic beginning to the Ark Derby.
Agree. Raw final 3/8th in Ark was 39.71. Adjusting for position at the 3/4 pole makes an adjusted ~38.5 for the top two in the Ark. Raw final 3/8th in FL was 37.66. Adjusting for position yields ~37.2 for the top two. That’s 6-7 lengths faster than the Ark horses. Even if OP was a litter slower, I doubt it was that much slower. Those ascribing to the final fractions theory would move up the top two in FL and toss the entire Ark. Mystik Dan did run a sub 38 (~37.9) in last years Ark but I prefer a horse run a sub 37.8 and not lose much ground to the winner. Dan was -3 lengths which is historically not indicative of a horse that’s going to carry them home at a mile and a quarter. Nothing works 100% of the time.
Yes, John, I agree with your summation of the Florida Derby. I was underwhelmed with the Florida Derby but it’s a prep so things can improve for both the winner and the runner up. Hopefully, Junior Alvarado is back to ride Sovereignty in the Kentucky Derby.
Sandman still has quite a few warts to iron out, I love mixed metaphors ha ha, but Jose Ortiz is a large part of the puzzle that’s coming together. Nonetheless, no one could not be but impressed by the win in the Arkansas Derby.
As for Cornucopian, it baffled me why Bob Baffert sent him to the Arkansas Derby. Physically the colt looks a miler/sprinter and action but that doesn’t mean the whole story all the time but a one race ‘seasoning’ seemed utter folly to me.
As for Johnny Velasquez’s ride what else could he have done? Cornucopian was hell bent on running as fast as he could for as long as he could. The colt gets a tick for lasting as long as he did,
Agree with you David’s on Cornucopian.
David,
What exactly were your expectations for the 2025 FL Derby?
The Mighty Fierceness won gate to wire in a geared down 1:48 plus. He finished 15th by 25L in the KD.
Empire Maker won the FL Derby by possibly the largest margin for the stakes. He was beaten in the KD.
Nyquist FL Derby – 23.60; 47.09; 1:11.39; 1:36.38; 1:49.11
Tappan Street – —-23.37; 47.72; 1:11.61; 1:36.59; 1:49.27
The fractions and final time for the 2016 & 2025 FL Derby are marginally different. Were you underwhelmed by Nyquist ‘s FL Derby?
The 8F & 9F times recorded in the 2025 FL Derby are with the margin of error of the average times for the distance in last 21 KDs.
Good news regarding The Queens MG.
Just saw a photo of her at Gulfstream. It is the right fore. Heavily bandaged but very bright and alert. She is officially retired.
Excellent news. Hope her recovery continues to go well.
Yes, I quadruple those thoughts, great news.
Since 1945 there have been 12 maidens in The Derby–none have hit the board….Publisher has seasoning and he fits….
Mathew W, I’m inclined to believe this. After watching his last two efforts, I came away impressed, thinking he looks better in defeat in both the Rebel and the Arkansas Derby than Sandman did in running third in the Rebel and winning the Arkansas. He shadowed Sandman in both runs and in the Rebel, he got bumped and squeezed in the stretch and did not quit. He might be the gamest maiden that I’ve seen. I’m rooting for this horse.
He needs to keep Prat….
“Maiden” is the key word…0 for 12 since 1945
Given what has unfolded in the KD since 2018. The colt must have a shot at repeating history.
Tappen Street flatters Burnham Square, who ran him down in the Holy Bull. Burnham Square breezed five-eighths in :59 3/5 at Churchill Saturday.
I gotta think The White Haired Wizard wasn’t rilled with that ride on Cornucopian yesterday—horse did well to get 4th….that was their one shot to get in, and while I bet on the winner—and would’ve bet against Cornucopian had he got in The Derby—I think that’s a good horse…he was rushed to get in and rushed in the race….
Agree…any knowledgeable trainer would never have entered him in AK derby…good way to ruin a horse…
Exactly.
Isn’t BB the speed king?
The colt doesn’t possess the stride overreach in its walk consistent with that of genuine routers. He is a miler a best.
Won’t argue with your premise on that.
Right on! HAHA…7 to 5
I just checked the KD Leaderboard; to get an update on my ‘All Others’ category and it makes for interesting reading.
Todd Pletcher has zero in the top 20. His best positioned horse is River Thames on 25 points. A good performance in the Blue Grass is required to ensure my good friend Bill Dawson is justified in ranking him #1 after his MSW win. If his Wood and Bluegrass entrant fail to secure 2nd place finish he could be without a starter.
BB has 3 in the top 20. However, that will change after the SA Derby. Barnes is at 34th with 18.75 points. A 2nd place finish should see him enter the top 20.
Brad Cox has 3 in the top 20.
I have 7 ‘All Other’ in the top 20. That could change after the final 4 preps. Final Gambit and Publisher appear to be my best likely entrants.
As of this morning BB has 3 colts that can be assured of a gate in the Derby, Citizen Bull, Madakaat Road and Getaway Car.
As of this morning there are only 4 entries in the Santa Anita Derby. 8 were nominated.
The 4 entries as of this morning are Citizen Bull, Barnes, Journalism and Baeza. Wildwood is a potential entry to make the field size 5.
If there are fewer than 6 entries, the points awarded will be reduced to 75 for winner, 37.5 for second and 18.75 for 3rd.
If there are only 4 entries only 50% of points will be awarded is my understanding.
Barnes currently has 18.75 points and is 36th on the leaderboard if you take the gates for the UAE and European and Japan Roads to the Derby into consideration.
Barnes has to finish at least 2nd to have any hope of a gate and even that might not be enough depending on the outcome of the other races this coming weekend, the Blue Grass and the Wood.
Noted.
It’s honesty painful to see the SA Derby field fail to fill this way. I hate the way California racing dwindling.
This is a special race, and I have loved it since I started paying any attention to racing in the 80s. Such a long list of excellent winners! Just since the millenium, I have had only 3 “can’t lose” Derby picks – horses I was completely confident in – and two of them won the Santa Anita Derby. They were I’ll Have Another and California Chrome.
I hope that the few running can do this race proud.
Counter Point
One thing for sure, your recall is amazing. And yes, I did have River Thames ranked at #1 on Week 4, followed by Sovereignty. Since his impressive maiden win, he finished 1st in an AOC race at GP, going a mile in 1:36.34, drawing off by 6 1/2 lengths. In his 3rd career start, (FOY), he was caught by Sovereignty approaching the wire.
By all indications, Bill Mott will enter River Thames in the Blue Grass, coming up next Saturday. There are those that feel 9 furlongs is beyond his scope, I feel otherwise.
Granted, his sire, Maclean’s Music was a sprinter, a very fast sprinter I might add, going 6 furlongs in 1:07.44 in his only career start, (115 Equibase Speed figure).
The dam side of his pedigree reflects major class and stamina influence with the likes of Discreet Cat, Touch Gold, Forestry, Grindstone, Deputy Minister, Private Account, Unbridled, Storm Cat, Buckpasser, Pleasant Colony, Damascus and Numbered Account.
River Thames was bred from the Mr. Prospector/Northern Dancer cross, which always gets my attention. That breeding cross and produced 19 winners of Triple Crown races, which you pointed out to me several years ago. With your amazing recall, I’m sure you remember that.
Bottom line, I’m hoping RT runs impressively in the Blue Grass, and secures enough points to make the Derby starting gate.
Edit, River Thames is trained by Todd Pletcher, not Bill Mott. My bad.
I’ve been waiting for Sandman to get the trip he deserves. Great job by Jose – broke clean, kept closer to the pace and let him use that rhythmic stride to gobble up ground to the wire – which he would have reached to win his earlier starts had it been placed further out 🙂 Also Jose quickly regained Sandman’s focus without impeding his stride when he did his usual goofball move at the top of the stretch
Tripe he deserves or trip most suited to his running style. A Tapit has never won the KD. The stallion has been represented by much faster progenies that have failed to deliver.
Is Sandman better than Essential Quality?
CP, we wont know until May 3rd but i suspect so.
Yes, Francine, Sandman is still a puzzle in progress but the pieces are coming together fast now. Jose Ortiz appears the right jockey for this unwieldy juggernaut. Ha ha Mark Casse has quire a bit of self assurance with Sandman as well. Cool, calm, collected.
The trip to Churchill Downs could be a day of celebration if Sandman can get a clean enough journey for the first mile then set sail home down the stretch. It will be ‘goodnight Vienna’ to the rest of them.
OK! I just got in.
The first thing I did was check my account. My Sandman / Publisher exacta paid $22. I rarely play exacta straight, but I did on this occasion. My $50 was well spent on that wager but the others were too ambitious.
I mentioned in a post that I wanted the colts sired by the KD/BCC winer to finish 2nd. Well one did.
So Cornucopian got eyeballed and had nothing left to repel the late challenge of 3 opponents. When I write about the worshiping of BB. I am castigated. But what must a brother conclude from the insanity that surrounds his horses.
How irresponsible was the OK Park ML personnel to assign the ML favoritism to a last out MSW debut winner against quality opponents. It’s the BB effect. So many have consumed so much of the Kool Aid critical thinking has been eroded.
Barnes wins a 51/2F MSW by a nose and he is labeled the early favorite to win the KD
Cornucopian wins a MSW and he is viewed as the best entrant in the A K Derby.
Madaket Road with one win by 1/2L from 4 starts was expected to win the FL Derby.
When will this insanity end.
Hey Counter Pount…
Absolutely right on! …and they just cant help themselves betting hand over fist….corn was an easy throwoit…
Bias over objectivity. The echo chamber continues.
Tony, some are losing their mind on another site. Their ‘sure thing’ was anything but that.
Once again, Mike, that’s not the point.
Once again Tony, here’s the point an inexperienced horse over his head before having time to develop thrown to the wolves.
CORRECT….its a shame but peop I e adore him…
You wouldnt know about either. Sandman like taking candy from a baby!….Corn ran off the board EXACTLY as expected…HAHA!! 7 to 5? HAHA…WHAT COULD POSSIBLY GO WRONG?
Once again, Dom, that’s not the point.
It sure is the poijtvto most of us….alright we give up…please tell us what your point is…please translate…
Dominic
Just to be clear, a 4th place finished is considered “hitting the board”, which rounds out the superfecta wager.
Thank yoy but ive been aware of that fact since 1973…
CP speaks the truth! Who in his right mind would bet a maiden winner with only one start, in the AK Derby at 7 to 5? HAHA!!! MUST BE MARCH MADNESS!
Counter, what’s insane is that it won’t.
It’s kool-ade induced insanity!
Absolutely.
The horses in the ranking needing points to secure a Derby place are:
Journalism (47.5 points), Barnes (18.75 points), Captain Cook (20 points), Chancer McPatrick (35 points), and Burnham Square (30 points).
Barnes needs first or second in the Santa Anita Derby … it will be tough against Journalism and Citizen Bull.
Chancer and Burnham could stay alive with a 3rd in the Blue Grass … but a first or second is possible for any of them.
I wonder where Steve is placing Tappan Street and who is out to make room for the son of Into Mischief… Barnes, American Promise or Chunk of Gold?
There are 5 prep races left, all 100-50-25-15-10 except for Lexington, 20-10-6-4-2.
In looking at the current points standings we have to keep in mind the international road to the Derby races. I do not think the winners of those races are included in the points totals until they commit.
With 18.75 points Barnes must place 4th to have any hopes to be in and even with 33.75 total points, that is cutting it close in my opinion.
Queen Azteca is running in the UAE Derby. She is already qualified for the Kentucky Oaks.
By Sharp Azteca out of Princesa Helena (Palace Malice) she sold for $39,466 and races for Scandinavia.
Would that not be something if she wins the UAE Derby and runs in the Kentucky Derby.
(Sharp Azteca was sold to Japan in 2023 to stand there for 2024.)
Lynda, by my account there are four races left on the US Road to the derby. The UAE Derby is no longer in that mix. It’s a part of the European / Middle East road to the derby.
Your are correct, 4 races on the US Road and the UAE is as of this year part of the European Road.
However the point spread is 100-50-25-15-10 and winner , should the connections decide to race in Derby, will have an automatic gate in the Derby.
Potentially 2 gates, one each for European Road and Japan Road will be in the Kentucky Derby.
Right! Before this year, there could potentially be four foreig- raced horses entered in the KD (Japan, Europe, and the first two in the UAE), which would leave only 16 gates for U.S.-based runner.
Should Queen Asteca win the UAE Derby, she will earn a gate.
I loved Sharp Azteca, and was gutted that they gave up on him. He will do well in Japan, I bet.
Speaking of Sharp Azteca, Matthew W and I liked his sprinting daughter, Sweet Azteca a whole lot. Any word on her? Last I checked, she had not worked since the disappointing last place finish that knocked her out of BC consideration last Fall.
It was odd seeing two veteran jockeys like Johnny Velazquez and Rafael Bejarano run each other into the ground in the Arkansas Derby. At least Cornucopian held on for 4th. They set crazy fractions. You would expect to see that from a couple of rookies. No way their horses were going to last. Juan Vargas on Coal Battle may have moved a little too soon. Who knows?
You’re aware CD didn’t need the points,if he finished third or last. He ran well.
CB.
I’m aware. I saw an interview of his trainer Lonnie Briley after the race. Seems like a real genuine guy. The kind of guy that it’s easy to root for. Not like some of these other slickster trainers. No offense to slickster trainers.
You nailed it Tommy, “the kind of guy that it’s easy to root for”.
Watching the gallop out I believe Cornucopian who you said “was gassed” went by Coal Battle who had nothing left and did not gallop out at all. He all but stopped after the finish line. Please watch it again and tell me what you think.
Does he get qualifying points for passing horses during the gallop out? Cornucopian ran his race as he is trained to do. Nothing more, nothing less.
When his trainer schools him to rate, then he’ll have a better chance against better competition.
Bingo!
Hey Big, which one is going to the big dance?
Yes Tommy…
I don’t remember seeing that kind of insane fray between two sole frontrunners in the history of the Derby trails…
The pace of 2001 Derby was grueling but there were as many as five super fast horses prompting that …
But, as you said, in this case there were only two speedsters and they decided to destroy themselves instead of moving at more sensible speed…
Anyway, perhaps it was a case of not letting the other “steal the race” … Who knows? indeed
I looked back through the past six or so Derby trails and could find only one final 9f prep that had crazy fast early fractions. In the G3 Sunland Derby of 2019, the fractions were 45 3/5 and 1:09 3/5. Cutting Humor rallied to earn a ticket to Louisville.
“Suicidal” is an apt description of the battle on the front end.
Fastest Ark Derby half mile this century..
Thanks for the reminder Tony D … you are a living Encyclopedia… Those ChatGPT, Copilot, and other AI gizmos should ask for your help to be more accurate when it comes to horse racing information… it amazing how ridiculous their answer to Horse Racing questions are … LOL
Anyway, the 2019 Sunland Park Derby was different in my eye memory as the separation between the dueling pair Mucho Gusto and Hustle Up and the other four stalking them was only 3,5 lengths by the half mile … yesterday the distance between the head to head Cornucopian and Speed King was more than 10 lengths to the second fligth of horses…
I guess the 45 seconds at Sunland is not as dramatic as a 45 at Oaklawn … but interesting was that John Velasquez was the beneficiary of that duel at Sunland with Cutting Humor’s neck in front of Anothertwistafate in record time of 1:46.94 … this time the HoF Jockey was the victim …
Good points about Sunland vs Oaklawn, Nelson. As for AI, by the time it’s developed to the point it can tell me how to operate my new microwave, I’ll be long gone.
How could I forget to mention the interesting similarity between the 2019 Sunland Derby and yesterday’s Ark Derby? Dueling for the lead at Sunland were Baffert’s RL Lewis winner Mucho Gusto (0.90-1) and a 15-1 runner.
Or, Nelson, neither is good enoigh…
I wonder what was going through Bejarano’s mind when he realized Velazquez wasn’t going to let up. It’s likely he thought about taking back in the hope that Cornucopian would burn out on his own.
Coal Battle was in the catbird seat. I see no excuse for losing so much ground in the stretch.
Cool Battle will move on to fight another day, the other two won’t.
This time you might be right…i didnt liie how much ground CB lost in the stretch either…..38 of the last 40 derby winners were 1st or 2nd in their last prep…
To Tony…
Actually, 31 of the last 40 KD winners (it would be 29 of 40 if you use Mandaloun and Country House as winners) were first or second in their final prep. What’s important to me is that CB lost 6 lengths AND position in the stretch, and he went the last furlong in :14 1/5. It was not a performance, regardless of the crazy fractions, that translates historically to a Derby win.
Right….thats 3 strikes…might be he had one prep too many..
Final Gambit closed faster than Sandman and Tappan Street in their respective races. He may be a turf horse but they say the track at Churchill Downs is kind to turf and A/W horses!
“kmi” nailed the Ark and Fla derbies…at 12:01 a.m. today, March 29. Congrats to kmi.
Thanks Tony D for the congrats!
Congrats to all winners today.
Just my opinion but I think the races for Coal Battle and Sovereignty sets them both up nicely for the Derby,
Very happy for Publisher taking 2nd.
He was bred Brereton Jones and raced by Mr Jones’ estate
Congrats as well to White Abarrio and Saffie. CHD treated Saffie horribly.
Not sure what to think about the BB entries.
Remember Linda, “he’s loaded”. Begins every Dec regarding how many power horses in the barn and some already anointing certain horse the Derby winner.
Yes Lynda, White Abarrio was impressive again today. Something Lonnie Briley said in an interview just prior to the Arkansas Derby was that Coal Battle seemed overly aggressive today than normal and he hoped it wouldn’t impact on his performance. Possibly it did.
I haven’t been overly impressed with the Bob Baffert runners either.
Davids, I too heard Lonnie’s comment. Just my opinion but Coal Battle needed the race and sets him up for the Derby.
Saffie was treated so badly by CHD and accused of things he did not do and lost White Abarrio to Dutrow. Did CHD apologize?
Just been thrilled for Saffie and White Abarrio since they got back together and that is no knocking Mr Dutrow.
Totally agree, Lynda. Trainers get besmirched due to circumstances beyond their control but the stain remains on their character and no apologies if they are cleared of the supposed wrongdoing.
CDI are a law among themselves.
I agree, Lynda. Forget innocent until proven guilty! The reality of horses is sometimes just that they are horses, and born looking for trouble. The people who made the Saffie decisions must not have lived with horses or cared for them on a daily basis. They may be 1000 pounds, but they’re entirely fragile! Lightning can and does strike more than once. (In fact, sometimes, it kills all 3 of your yearlings at once.)
I felt for Saffie. That could have entirely ruined his career. I look at how he has maintained Skippy and kept him healthy for his whole running life. With White Abarrio back, Saffie has a modern anomaly: he is campaigning two MGSWs successfully into their 6 year old years, and only one is a gelding. Longevity like that might stand for something, and it could even be an indication of good care.
We may have seen The 2025 Derby winner at Gulfstream…not at Oaklawn or Fairgrounds or Turfway—Next week will show us Santa Anita, Aqueduct and Keeneland—still lots to sort out—Florida looked strong..
That’s funny, the Florida Derby didn’t impress me a great deal. That’s horse racing though.
It impressed me.
I liked the Fla. Derby top 2 better than Sandman who finished rather slow off the torrid pace. Sandman always puts in a run but will face much better than a maiden and 2nd out 6f horse in the Derby. Coal Battle sat well of the same pace but lost a lot of ground in the stretch. He made more of a middle into a slower part of the race then totally flattened out.
I thought they passed tired horses…thought Tappan Street kicked clear more impressively–and Sovereignty came with his run…:45 1/5…1:10 1/5….1:50 atOaklawn….much softer splits at Gulfstream yet they finished 1:49 1/5….
I expect a great final prep for Journalism …
I dont….Mike has worked him sparingly—I expect he will qualify and then look out! The prize is First Saturday, As of right now I like Sovereignty a lot! Mott knew he was IN—Brad HAD to run big yesterday—Sovereignty is locked and loaded, now I’m looking for Journalism to finish—not necessarily win…I’ve already got my Derby
win wager, at 52-1, I’m not itching to take 2-1 next Sat….
Queens MG vanned off in GS Oaks after being pulled up at Quarter pole.
Knee injury, surgery planned for tomorrow, expected to survive.
Dad gum it! I liked her to win that race, and now she faces surgery. Thanks for the update, Lynda.
Thanks for the info, Lynda.
Fingers crossed and prayers.
You are all welcome.
Hopefully the surgery will be sucessful.
No word so far if it is career ending.
Just in passing Lynda, Fairy Godmother has been retired due to a a training accident. Fairy Godmother was one of the favorites for the 1,000 Guineas both English and Irish.
I saw that Davids. Sad.
I was watching that race on the Gulfstream site and cheering for Queen’s MG. I saw that she was dropping back and I thought I caught a glimpse of Irad moving her to the far outside–away from the race. I was waiting for someone to say something but as far as I know no one did. (I could have missed something because I was trying to correct a computer problem.) I get very annoyed at the media coverage whenever something unfortunate happens. They say as little as possible, keep the camera somewhere else, and leave the viewers worrying about the horses and riders while they try to pretend that nothing ever goes wrong. This is terrible reporting, and it shows a paranoia that is not helpful to the sport.
Yes, Jiffy, I was watching the same coverage and there was no indication that The Queens M G was in trouble after the race all you saw was her dropping back during the race.
The announcer said she dropped back and was moving off to the side. He didn’t say why, but I understand why he didn’t, first he didn’t know what went wrong or how bad it was, second he had to follow the rest of the race. They try to avoid upsetting people and don’t usually say much but they do sometimes announce bad news about breakdowns later.
Hey Counter Pount…
Absolutely right on! …and they just cant help themselves betting hand over fist….corn was an easy throwoit…
This is done out of respect for the horse, the connections and the jockey and I for one applaud the tracks for this.
Live graphic footage of an injured horse or jockey is fuel for PETA.
I think your second sentence gives the real reason, not the first. Of course, there are some things that shouldn’t be shown, but the question is where to draw the line. I believe the broadcasters err far too much on the side of suppression, while I prefer a much more open approach to all reporting, not just this.
Well I had the exacta and win on Sandman….hope he doesn’t prop like that at Churchill…might need ear muffs….A maiden in Tge Derby with an Eclipse Award rider—Johnny V had outside position and could not get him to sit off—or was that by choice?
Matthew, I don’t think Johnny V could have done anything else, Cornucopian was intent on one thing, sprint.
None of Bob Baffert’s horses have won a prep outside of California, the Santa Anita Derby should be a cracking race but does he have a horse to beat Journalism?
Was great to see Sandman finally get things together, that stretch at Churchill Downs is becoming Sandman. I’ve been lucky with Tiztastic and Sandman winning major preps and Quietside for the Oaks. Now if I can just get rid of this flu. lol
Oh no! Not you too, Davids. I’m on Week 4, but spent a whole day being active so I think I’m gaining on it.
Good luck, Ms Blacktype, I thought I was getting better yesterday but today it’s come back with a vengeance.
Ms. Blacktype, he hasn’t an answer for Journalism.
I was commenting on Davids’s flu, Mike.
Mrs Blacktype, the comment intended for someone else. Sorry.
‘beckoning’ not becoming Sandman
Get well soon both of you.
I am fighting this pollen. Non stop sneezing all day and feel like my brain is bubblewrap.
Thanks Lynda, bless you in anticipation of the pollen. Ha ha Being a lifelong sufferer of Hay Fever you have all my sympathy.
Ok, I liked the way THAT top 4 came home, too! I think Sandman, Publisher, and Coal Battle should be legit Classic distance horses. I wouldn’t expect a half in :45 in the Derby, so I’m still going to be on Coaly.
But for Cornucopian be part of that atomic, torrid pace and still finish in the points – and not a distant 4th either? That’s a real nice horse.
Come on, he was cooked.
If you mean Coal Battle, I still believe. He did not have to peak today. Furthermore, I still think he can win a G1, even if it isn’t in 5 weeks.
What are your thoughts? Would they give up their spot in the gate in Louisville after a G1 placing and additional points today? I wouldn’t call that “having his ears handed to him,” but I don’t think Lonnie Briley will stand for doing him dirty if he isn’t right in 4-5 weeks.
As to Cornucopian, I think rushing him to this distance in stakes company was deeply unfair to him. He had every right to be gassed, and he kept trying all the way. The plan was the problem. That horse is nice, and I hope he will be again.
My comment was directed to Cornucopian. From that barn, usually the game plan, go to the front and keep going. Thrown into the deep end.
Agree-the plan didn’t seem right only rushed. Very talented colt though Cooked on pace and still not far off of coal man at the line. Speed King sure did a favor for the local team.
Big mistake sending him there. He’s talented.
4th is 4th…nice horse in way over his head in his second career start….typical bb…hope he hasnt ruined this hirse yet like he has many others…
Agreed.
Sandman at last.
Yes, Davids, Sandman was splendid. A perfect setup with the speed duel. So much for the 6 fl wonder horse. He’s in the big dance.
Sandman, that is.
Yes Dewey, I was watching the race through America’s Day at the Races and there was no comment on Sandman apart from Maggie Wolfendale’s negative comment.
Made me laugh the whole Cornucopian hype, the horse looks like a sprinter but he ran well all things considered. Happy Coal Battle ran well again.
A bit green.
Came over in the break, drifted in the stretch.
He’s young.
Otherwise strong win!
My kid had Sovereignty and Sandman today, and there was no living with her all evening. Too much adrenaline!
Katy, I know your daughter was thrilled!
Arkansas Derby is two million—Prat is on a maiden….he won a lot of these types of races last year….
Green no more!
Finally Tappan Street changed lead perfectly and wins the Florida Derby in impressive fashion…
Sovereignty is in great position to peak in the Derby now…!
The two best looking horses came one two…
Neoequous (3rd) was a great flag bearer for Florida speed defeating California speed (Madaket Road in 4th)…
Nelson, I feel vindicated for liking Tappan Street all season. Excellent race, and Sovereignty looked magnificent in defeat. Counting the minutes until the Arkansas Derby.
Sob got enough from the race.
Intended to Sov.
Edit.
Congrats MB …my concern with him was his leads but he has become a professional runner now …bravo Brad Cox..
Into Mischief is magnificent inderd!
I thought 1-2 both looked fantastic coming home.
Tappan Street gets his G1 win, and what a good one to win! Success in the Florida Derby is almost always a good sign.
I have to think that effort by Sovereignty was exactly what Bill Mott was looking for.
I hope Madaket Road goes in the Pat Day Mile. That could be shaping up to be an exciting undercard race!
Katy, there are so many good candidates for the Pat Day Mile now, Madaket Road among them. He has 46 points — more than Neoequos (40). BB isn’t above entering horses in the Derby who qualify, then scratching them at the last minute (something he’s been flamed for before), but we’ll see what he does.. I’m glad the top four ran so well. All nice horses.
I was thinking that if all the three-year-olds that don’t appear to like distance go to the Pat Day Mile, they’ll have to run it in three or four divisions.
Madaket Road, Cornucopian and Getaway Car are suited for the mile of the Pat Day… the Derby is too big for them …
For 30 minutes Tappan Street was 3-1….and he wins—2-1. it’s why I don’t bet much anymore to win…sour taste…..
Exactly. It leaves a bad taste in your mouth. There is a simple fix, but racetracks won’t do it because so much money comes in during the last few minutes.
A very good chance of a wet track at Keenland next Saturday. Those that waited are out of options except for the Lexington with its measly 20 points.
The final Derby Future Pool is next weekend and those Devils at Churchill are going to close the pool on Saturday at 4pm so that players won’t know what happened in the last of the 100-pointers. They have done this before. I don’t know why I am always surprised by it. Why make things hard on your customers? I would say the same thing about any business. I recently changed my ADW from the last days of TVG to TwinSpires. There are certain things about TwinSpires that I also think make it hard on their customers. Happy customers are loyal customers.
There is a simple reason why CD does that. With 40 possible entries in Pool 6, too many choices would go by the wayside if they closed after the Big 3 races. Don’t complain too much, if you like a horse or 2 your odds will be better this way. Say you like Journalism, with Citizen Bull in the SA Derby if he blows the Bull away his odds would be next to nothing if the Pool ended a day after the race. The Bluegrass is wide open, the odds you will get on the winner will be much higher before the race is run than a day after it finishes. Both would be likely half of what you could get before the races are run. It makes perfect sense from their viewpoint as well.
I foresee the Arkansas Derby as a match race between the incredible Coal Battle and the aristocratic Cornucopian.
So, I am going for Bill Dawson’s formula as follows:
$32 Superfecta:
8-Coal Battle/10-Cornucopian
8-Coal Battle/10-Cornucopian
2-First Division 3-Publisher 4-Bestfriend Rocket 6-Sandman
2-First Division 3-Publisher 4-Bestfriend Rocket 5-Speed King 6-Sandman
Not expecting the Super to pay much unless First Division (20/1) and Bestfriend Rocket (20/1) both sneak into the it…but it is very affordable anyway…
Good luck in all your bets today and safe trips to everyone…
Every time I watch the Rebel Stakes I find it amazing how Madaket Road, after running an extreme fast tempo, was able to keep fighting till the end against a formidable Coal Battle and also hold the powerfull rally of Sandman.
Madaket Road ran the fastest 3 first quarters in the Rebel since 1997 and was faster that the older horses in the Razorback Stakes ran 40 minutes earlier. The older horses ran hard ending in a 3-horse photo finish involving Alexander Helios, Banishing and First Mission.
Below is the comparison of their respective fractional times:
Razorback Stakes: 23 4/5, 47 3/5, 1: 11 2/5, 1:35 3/5, and 1:41 4/5
Madaket Road: 22 2/5, 45 3/5, 1:10 4/5, 1:36 2/5, and 1:43 1/5
The 10 length difference at the 4 furlongs is remarkable to say the least …!
To have an idea of how fast Madaket Road was take note that the standard sectional times in the Rebel has been 23, 47, 1:12 and change…!
If Mike Smith is able to make Madaket Road relax the first half mile they can stay the distance … at least the track is playing very fast at Gulfstream park today.
I am plotting a $48 Superfecta as follows:
8-Madaket Road/10-Sovereignty
8-Madaket Road/10-Sovereignty/9-Tappan Street
4-Disruptor/8-Madaket Road/9-Tappan Street/6-Jimmy’s Dailys/7-Enterdadragon
1-Neoequos/4-Disruptor/6-Jimmy’s Dailys/7-Enterdadragon
Good luck and safe trips to all.
The track was extremely fast that Saturday. it is unwise to assume the colt is super-fast.
The undefeated Concert Tour won the 2021 Rebel gate to wire by 4 1/2L in 1:43.18 geared down.
He returned for the A K Derby’ he assumed the lead and weakened late to finish 3rd. The extra 1/2F is always a challenge for stamina deficient entrant.
You’ve done a great analysis that confirms my gut feeling about Madaket Road. Nelson. I also like all three of your picks.
Thank Ms Blacktype … the comparison to the Razorback (40 minutes earlier at Oaklawn) is definitely confirming that Madaket Road is a very fast horse … whether or not he is able to reproduce that blazing speed at Gulfstream remains to be seen .. but the talent is there nonetheless… we shall see…
HISA fees are costly–small tracks pay the same as larger tracks—I hear Emerald Downs was able to pay for this year—but won’t be able next year—Horse Racing is shrinking….
I see Honor Marie has been working with She’s Not Joking…..and heard Tappan Street has been working with Saudi Crown—I think Tappan will run well today….
Matthew W – you called it!
Bob Baffert must feel confident today with Hall of Famer Mike Smith, who guided Justify to win the Triple Crown wire to wire, in charge of piloting the speedball Madaket Road in Florida.
I will be wholeheartedly rooting for Mike Smith to win his fourth Florida Derby 29 years after his last with Unbridled’s Song. Mike “Money” Smith won the 2017 Pegasus with Arrogate in record time so he is not that outdated running 1 1/8 mile at Gulfstream.
Also, Hall of Famer John Velasquez, who won the Derby with Authentic and Medina Spirit both wire to wire, will try to harness the superb speed of Cornucopian leading him to stay the distance in Arkansas…
A winning team is in action today … a team that sees the Derby as its winning venture.
It is a good play for Baffert trying to keep his empire of speed alive one more day…
Nice perspective Nelson…I can see that happening.
Thanks for your reply kmi … I remember regretting doubting Justify labelled by me as a “glorified miler” and I put my faith and money on champion 2-year-old Good Magic … then I saw Authentic as a sprinter/miler that could not even keep a straight path in the homestretch… my faith and money in that outlying year 2020 was on Champagne victor Tiz the Law … and you know the story there…!
I justified the feats of those speedy horses by them being very big and muscular specimens…. but then it comes a “no body” named Medina Spirit seen like a second string behind early prospects Concert Tour, Hozier, Life is Good, and even Spielberg.
That year I put all my faith and money on champion Essential Quality … he was the second coming of Native Dancer in my eyes… but the plebeian not only defeated the champ on Derby day but also in the Breeder’s Cup Classic … the only two times they faced each other…
I was expecting Chad Brown and Brad Cox being the ones destined to be the new powerplayers in the Derby book… but Bob Baffert keeps making those “glorified sprinter/milers” excel at 1 1/4 mile… and this year his 6 prospects are all speedy horses with average speed ratings above 100 … and these are his top 6 earners among his 44 horses this year.
You see… This year I am placing my faith and money on Journalism with more confidence as the son of Curlin and McCarthy had already written the prelude of the Derby by defeating all the speedballs Baffert has pitted against him.
So when some says that Baffert is in the business of pure speed he/her is not far from reality…!
interesting!
it was bill Mott the retired the champion miler Cody’s Wish and Champion sprinter and repeat BC sprint winner Elite Power.
The last time BB had a print Champion was 2016 – Drefong
Sovereignty and Enterdadragon
Coal Battle and Publisher
Good luck to all and safe trips!
Impressive win by Luxor Cafe.
It was impressive, Lynda. At William Hill, Luxor Cafe was 45-1 before race, now 18-1
He might be a force to reckon with in the Derby.
Certainly has the pedigree.
His dam has produced 3 successful foals including Cafe Pharoah.
She was a champion on turf here in US.
Love your picks, and pretty much the same here.
Add Madaket Road to the Florida Derby for mine. He has a Dogwood dam side connection that I like, and I like seeing older athletes get it done.
American Pharoah could have himself a day…
Hope the rain that soaked Oaklawn makes it to you, and then to me!
Thanks Katy!
As of 8:40 am PST. MUDDY track at Oaklawn Park.
Argh! Is there any race course in the U.S. that has more wet-track days?
Oaklawn has a terrific dirt course, it should dry considerably…mehopes..
Could favor Coal Battle.
Katy,
Just about any surface favors Coal Battle!
LOL
Yeah, boy! (As my Texarkana family says as encouraging and excited acknowledgement.)
50% chance of thunderstorms 4-5.
Strong weather front headed our way.
Hope we get some good rain from it to wash away this pollen and put out the wildfires in upstate South Carolina and ease the drought.
Pollen counts in combination with the smoke from wildfires drifting our way are making for some poor air quality index.
There’s a lot of talk about Pletcher’s KD record, with folks noting his 2 wins with 65 starters. A more precise stat is that he’s won 2 of 24 derbies in which he has entered at least one horse. Considering that the Derby is the most contentious race by far for three-year-olds, that’s a pretty good record. And keep in mind that Pletcher has an enormous stable of well-bred runners, whose owners want to have action in the Derby even when they know their chances of winning or even hitting the board are slim.
Lots of great trainers have never won a single Derby. This year, Brad Cox and Bill Mott are hoping to have a runner cross the finish line in front for the first time in their great careers. Maybe there is too much emphasis on just winning the Derby. Finishing on the board is an achievement!
I provided a critique of Patch Adams after his impressive MSW win over 7F. I cited that his stride frequency and the share forcer with which he hit the surface denoted he is a sprinter/miler at best. The colt has failed to win any of its routing starts.
Ahead of the BCJ I question the hype of 2Times G1 winner Chancer McPatrick. The colt’s resume reflects he is a deep to mid pack closer who is constantly hard ridden to get on terms with leaders of the moderate variety.
His average 1L plus margin of victory of modest opponents signaled he would be vulnerable to high cruisers who can accelerate and remain resolute to the line. His performance in the BCJ didn’t come as a surprise as it was consistent with his profile.
I have seen glowing critiques of Disruptor and Cornucopian. What exactly did I miss regarding the two colts?
One defeated an overmatched field with 1i8lbs & Lasix. The other similarly defeated an overmatched field with 122lbs & Lasix. This makes these medicated horses’ potential superstars.
Both will be making their graded stakes debut over extended distances without the RDM. Their stride frequency suggests they are likely to deplete their emerge recourse at a faster rate than talented opponents that cover more ground per stride and capable of a 12 seconds per furlong pace.
Why sensationalizes these young horses who unproven?
Patch Adame got hung wide…I think he’s a one turn horse, and a good one..
Sometimes I offend supporter of this space because it appears I come across as a wise A$$. But I am by no means wise, but rather fact driven.
Disruptor was referred to as super impressive MSW winner that will give Sovereignty all he can handle in the FL Derby. Having seen that statement, I compare the maiden breakers for both entrants for which both were assigned an Equibase figure of 99. More on speed figures later.
Sovereignty broke his maiden with 122lbs in the 8 1/2F G3 Street Sense whilst defeating two notable colts on the KD Trail i.e., Sandman and Tiztastic. His 5L victory over both was achieved under a hand ride from the back of the field. At the time Sandman was a MSW winner and Tiztastic was MSW/Listed Stakes winner.
Disruptor broke his maiden with 118lbs & Lasix in a 7F MSW by 9 1/2L. There are no notable opponents that finished behind him.
The FL Derby is 9F. Disruptor hasn’t contested a race beyond 7F. Sovereignty has contested one 8F & two 8 1/2 races.
Sovereignty won the FOY with 123lbs and will carry 1lbs less in the FL Derby. Disruptor won his MSW with 118lbs and will carry 4lbs more and no Lasix in what will be his 2trun and stakes debut.
Given the colt facts detailed above. How can it be reasonably concluded that Disruptor is likely to give Sovereignty all he can handle in a truly run race with no additives involved? I mentioned additives due to the fact that one of TP’s FL Derby winners completed the race in 1:47+ and in so doing recorded the fastest time since Alydar 1:47 flat. His previous effort over 9F was 1:53+
I am of the opinion that many are not truly aware of what was on display when Sovereignty’s as maiden left the gates @ 1/2 in his graded stakes debut and won by 5L under a hand ride. The defeated Sandman must have a great shot to win the A K Deby. Tiztastic was last seen wining the L A Deby. Both were comprehensively defeated by Sovereignty.
I am not sure what drives certain opinions. But it is inconceivable that some opinions are fact based.
A MSW winner over 7F is assigned the same speed figure as maiden winner of a G3 Stakes under a hand ride against winners. This makes a mockery of speed figure and render them useless.
CP, I agree with you 95%. The only caveats I would suggest is maturity, and longer distances. Tiztastic won at 9 1/2 furlongs and I believe would have done even better at 10 furlongs. The KD will be interesting in regards to who can manage the crowded field and go wire to wire or pick through the pack at the end.
Counter Point, (AKA Coldfacts, AKA Pointofview)
In stating the obvious, your post consisted of approximately 350 words, which could have been condensed down to 6 words. Sovereignty is the horse to beat.
Have a nice day.
Luxor Cafe wins the Fukuryu Stakes in Japan at 1800 meters in 152.1., also taking 1st on the Japan leaderboard for the KD.
He was spectacular. He just inhaled that field.
Off that right handed turn he shot out of there like a rocket … really nice.
Gee, talking about a separation … he divorced himself from the field immediately.
New jockey and back on a right handed track. He has a tremendous turn of foot and is always on the far outside. Imagine if a aon of American Pharosh wins the Derby for Japan and beats Baffert. Will he make the Dozen? We’ll see.
Sure why not? Even if it’s the bottom dozen … hahaha
I already put him in mine. That was a really impressive performance, and he did it easily.
If I didn’t know any better, he was the 1st horse I ever seen MOONWALK to victory.
Ten Years After… Luxor Cafe said “I’m Going Home!”
Blinking away dirt. Behind horses? He don’t care.
And of course I had to look (again)… because this pedigree is too much fun! If you chase down the tail female line, Buckpasser and In Reality (with a few shots of Princequillo) start to stack up. Plenty of Mr Prospector gets female influence Man O’ War blood, both top and bottom, for a balance.
Whoa take it easy! This is a PG blog! (kidding of course)..
(Wolf whistle) 😂
Gonna be a fun day, racing peeps!
I’m really looking forward to Saturday’s races. I think Sovereignty has the Florida Derby pretty much wrapped up, but I’m cheering for Disruptor because I want him to get the Derby points. I consider the Arkansas Derby wide open. Three of my longshots-of-interest are in the race and I’m very anxious to see how they do and which ones get enough points to go to the Derby. Sandman could probably get in with a third-place finish, but Cornucopian and Publisher would have to finish second. I’m going with Publisher because he’s the one I most want to get those points and he might be vastly underrated. Good luck to everyone and enjoy the races.
In the Florida Derby, TAPPAN STREET. For the Arkansas Derby, I like SANDMAN to put it all together for the win.
Perfect! Congratulations!
Thanks Jiffy!
You are my favorite handicapper kmi … !
Congrats on your great calls today !
Thanks Nelson, much appreciated! Likewise I appreciate your in depth and informative commentary as well. Always a great read.
Coal Battle and Speed King, 1, 2.
The Arkansas Derby has six closers of varying degrees, a stalker (Bestfriend Rocket), and two early speed types (Speed King & Cornucopian).
As the ML favorite at 7-5, Cornucopian has a difficult challenge in breaking from the outside post, jumping from a maiden win to a field that includes two graded stakes winners at Oaklawn, and stretching out from 6f to 9f. He’s obviously talented, but this race is too soon and too long for him to shine.
Bestfriend Rocket has been consistent at Laurel and recently at Oaklawn in optional claimers. He seems too slow for this group.
Coal Battle should be and deserves to be the favorite. He’s as consistent as they come, and I expect a strong rally as usual.
Two races ago, Speed King won the Southwest Stakes gate to wire from Post 9, defeating Sandman, Tiztastic, Patch Adams, and Gaming. His last workout before the Southwest was a :47 bullet. Before the Rebel Stakes, he went 4f in :48 and, prior to that, he went 5f in 1:04. For whatever reason, he was not sharp at the start, breaking from Post 10 and going four wide on the first turn. Speed King came up empty and finished 10th.
For tomorrow’s race, Speed King worked 5f in a bullet 59 2/5 and finally a bullet 4f in 47 4/5. He breaks from Post 5 and should have no problem establishing a moderate early pace. I’ll bet SPEED KING (ML 15-1) to win and box him in an exacta with COAL BATTLE.
I might just take your tip on the Arkansas Derby. The price should be right. The exacta too. Good luck on Saturday.
Thanks, Tommy. Same to you! It looks like an exciting day.
There has been so much rain in Sydney all this week that a fabulous card of races at Rosehill has been cancelled for Saturday. Damn.
Cheer up, we still have the Flemington races today headed by the 1.5 million Group 1 Australian Cup. It’s been raining here overnight so expect the track to be soft initially but Flemington tends to dry fast and there isn’t expected to be any heavy downfalls during the day.
Racing starts to heat up with the Group 3 TBV Thoroughbred Breeders Stakes for 2 year old fillies at 1:20 pm here which is 10:20 pm Friday night in New York. The Australian Cup will be run at 4:15 pm here in Melbourne which is 1:15 am Saturday morning New York time.
Pride of Jenni looks very favorable here with Middle Earth and Zardozi the obvious threats. Light Infantry Man is in excellent form so he gets the nod. The track will be soft and no doubt will deteriorate throughout the day. Be wary.
Hopefully, the rain expected at Gulfstream Park and Oaklwan Park expected is only minimal- rain, rain, go away come again another day!! Good luck.
While watching the flurries and expecting snow tomorrow here in Calgary I wonder if there is Spring anywhere…
The TAB Australian Cup at Flemington will be at 11:15 pm tonight here…
Champion mare Pride of Jenny was the talking point by returning a winner (in Peter Young Stakes at Caufield 13 days ago) after failing as a favorite in the Champions Mile back in November. She looked really good winning wire to wire in 1:48 flat for 1 1/8 mile. Godolphin’s mare Zardozi rallied powerfully to make up about 4 lenghts to finish second. Some handicappers think Zardozi will be favored at 1 1/4 mile this time
Pride of Jenny is 27/10 in the morning line against Middle Earth at 5/1 and Zardozi at 15/2. Jenny should again dictate the pace starting from post position one and hold off all the brilliant closers in the race…
The younger Feroce , winner of the Australian Guineas, is 12 to 1 as it will be his first time running 1 1/4 mile.
But my longshot is Attrition (16/1) for the minors … he’s been getting sharp running 7 furlongs and a two mile races at Flemington but he is a winner at 1 1/4…
Nice spectacle at Flemington tonight with two races ran already …
Nelson, I think here in Melbourne we may have finally seen the last of summer. It was 90 yesterday but from now on the maximums are mid to low 70s. More rain the better.
Your summary of the Australian Cup field is spot on. Good luck with your longshot Attrition. Attrition has raced at Flemington 4 times with 2 seconds the result; he has a good record on soft and heavy ground. It could rain or stay dry here.
Evidence of the fabulous prize money available in Australia have a look at the prize money won by the runners in the Australian Cup.
Light Infantry Man – almost 2.5 million
Attrition – almost 2.5 million
Young Werther – over 2 million
Shaiyhar – almost 400,000
Middle Earth – almost 600,000
Pride of Jenni – almost 10.5 million
Atishu – almost 6 million
Zardozi – over 2 million
Deny Knowledge – almost 2 million
Feroce – almost 1.5 million
It shouldn’t rain before the 162 year old Australian Cup is run now, 45 minutes to go. Best of luck.
The French horse Light Infantry Man wins the Australian Cup in a close finish with Denny Knowledge in second and Zardosi in third, Athishu was fourth.
Pride of Jenny led the pack up to the mile but faded badly in the homestretch … I hope the 9-year-old mare is OK …She will have to wait for another chance to seek her fourth Group One win …
Light Infantry Man was running 1 1/4 mile for the first time and it was his thrid Stakes win so far …
Light Infantry Man – Yes!!
The French horse was 9 to 1 and the final odds for Denny Knowledge was 13 to 1 …
I’ve been keeping a close eye on him and thought everything fits today for Light Infantry Man. Good when it works.
Good luck on Saturday, Nelson. Exciting +
Another French horse Deakin wins the 1 5/9-mile of the Lexus Roy Higgins and earns an automatic place in the Melbourne Cup… The son of Australia out of Dealbata by Dubawi has won 5 times in 12 starts being this his second Stakes win .
His sensational prior win in the 1-9/16 mile of the Manhari Torney Night Cup at Mooney Valley made him the overwhelming favorite (4/5) today… Deakin is in a form upswing … good luck to him in the Melbourne Cup…
Nelson, make a note of the conditions today at Flemington and at Moonee Valley for that matter. Rain the night before after previous days of hot dry days.
They have to water the tracks extensively during the week but should it rain the night before, as happened today, the races the tracks will be inevitably soft going. The softer going no doubt suits the French bred runners.
With the Melbourne Cup the track is mostly, either as hard as cement due to the lack of rain with hot day & night temperatures or soft due to rain the night before.
Steve thanks for making the run
Up to the derby so incredibly exciting we appreciate u !
Thank you very much Nick. That means a lot.
D Wayne Lukas announced (per Bloodhorse) that American Promise will run in the Lexington and Caldera to run in the Bluegrass. I see no issue with either one of these entries. AP had a work of 5 furlongs o March 25th in 59 + sec.
Brad Cox and Gary and Mary West don’t miss this opportunity. You have a Kentucky Derby viable horse in Instant Replay but you need the points to get him qualified I feel he was running just as fast (if not faster) in the end as Tiztastic in the LA Derby. I would enter him in the Bluegrass Stakes ( preferred due to distance) or the Lexington . Since he was only running at the end LA Derby I would look at that race as a 5 to 5 1/2 fur workout. I can’t believe it took too much out of him. If you enter him the Blue Grass Stake just give him a 4 furlong workout on Monday in 47 and change. If you go to the Lexington 4 fur on Monday same time and following Monday 5 furlongs in 59 +.
Having not recorded an official work since winning the Lecomte, on January 18th, it appears that Disco Time is off the Derby trail. Too bad, this Not This Time colt was undefeated in three career starts, for trainer Brad Cox. By all indications, Tappan Street is the only colt left in the Cox barn that has a chance to make the Derby starting gate.
Edit: Instant Replay, who closed nicely, from 10th at the 3/4 pole, to finish 3rd in the Louisiana Derby could point to the Blue Grass. Pending the outcome, Cox could conceivably have two starters in the Derby starting gate.
Final Gambit is a Brad Cox trainee, also a son of Not This Time, also owned by Jiddmonte. I’m hoping Disco Time comes back in good shape this year, but am also very intrigued by Final Gambit. He could be a really good one.
Has Cornucopian’s stride frequency been noted? That type of stride frequency makes the colt vulnerable over a distance of ground.
I consider him a bet against.
amazing…coldcuts makes a smart comment?
Geez. Look who’s back after all these years lurking in the shadows.
If it is Pro-Vet, we can expect some disparaging comments hence forth. 🙂
Leonard will keep a close eye on him.
Hey vet.
That stride closes out final 1/8 in 11 seconds after blistering pace.
Let’s see how his stride is tomorrow,
Here, it’s the Friday before a big Saturday of racing. Again, no predictions. I’m going to sit, watch and enjoy.
My question is regarding Cornucopian. Is this now the norm. The rule instead of the exception. What looks to be a huge test was unheard of years and years ago. Wasn’t the usual protocol was to win a maiden race, then progress to an allowance race or two, and then onto a stakes race.
And meaning the norm, Cornucopian is not the only horse that has taken to a first win in maiden race at six furlongs and then skipping the allowance race and instead going straight to a stakes race. John Hancock won a six furlong race on January 8 then went to the Sam F. Davis Stakes where he faced four different stakes winning horses including a graded stakes winner, all in his second start, and won. And one of the horses he beat, Owen Almighty, came back to win the Tampa Bay Derby.
Obviously, it’s comparing oranges to apples but process is there and it looks like it might become the norm going forward.
Cornucopian is exactly the type of horse we all want to see. Frankly, I’ve grown tired of horses like American Promise, who take up our time wallowing in the world of MSW and need 6 efforts to graduate only to be beaten and battered some more in Graded Stakes and then run in some newly concocted Listed Stakes and run 9 furlongs faster than a horse like, oh like Spend a Buck in 1:46 and 2. It’s tiresome.
We see last out MSW winners in graded stakes regularly. What exactly is different about Corucopian?
Well said, Rob.
Disruptor is another super impressive maiden winner that we like to see moving forward on the Derby trail. From my perspective, Disruptor will give Sovereignty all he can handle in the Florida Derby. By Gun Runner, out of a Speightstown mare, the inbreeding to Mr. Prospector, top and bottom, should be beneficial.
His tail-female side is inundated with class and stamina influence, IMO.
When all is said and done, Disruptor could be Todd Pletcher’s best 3yr. old colt moving forward.
Good luck, Rob
“We all want to see”. Perhaps you do. From my view, he’s getting tossed into the deep end.
Yeah, well, why even waste your time running in a maiden race? If you’re an owner with a big shot trainer who paid a princely sum for a regally bred animal, why not go immediately into one of those 100-point preps. That’s what I want to see.
Yeah,well, let’s see what your opinion is after the race.
How did the race work out for you,Troller?
FYI, Mr. Relva, I’m no more of a fan of the kind of “getting tossed into the deep end” tactics than you are. The earlier comment on bypassing a maiden race was intended as sarcasm. Sorry it went over your head.
What didn’t go over my head-getting tossed into deep end. Cooked!
Its far from ther norm…its mostly 1 trainer….i think hes a bet against in AK Derby in my opinion…
“its mostly 1 trainer” LOL
Is there a problem? You think somethings funny?
Dominic, always enjoy your comments as well.
Correct.
When a person, or syndicate invests high six figures or seven figures by purchasing a TB, they want an immediate ROI.
Therefore, when a few show early promise in maiden wins….it’s an automatic decision to test the horse’s skill level by running in stakes or graded races.
Should the very few succeed, next stop the breeding shed. Stud fees is where the real money is.
Also, David – Jamie just killed me
He tweeted two videos this morning – the first showed his work.
So his second was all about how international Heart is – dam is all Chilean, conceived in KY, born in Gloucestershire, sold as a foal at Newmarket, and Ireland as a yearling…as a 2 year old in France. Etc…
I clicked on the video and I’m hit with the incredible theme from Champions, the movie about Bob Champion & Aldaniti
I believe that used to play that music before the Grand National
I’m a wreck, lol
Betsy, Jamie Osborne has always been an amusing chappy not like most of the European jockeys/trainers who are inevitably very stoic in temperament. Ha ha
He lacks that famous British stiff upper lip apparently, lol
Lol, Betsy, that stiff upper lip is past history ha ha , the lads are more liable to flood the eyes with tears these days and good on them!!
I was just joking – I love the British…and I agree, good on them!
David, 11 isn’t bad – I was afraid it would be 16-20 runners, lol
Excited to see Honor Marie ! I’m glad they gave him all this time off – he needed it
Yes, Betsy, but it’s going to rain. Why does it inevitably rain on the days you want it to be sunny. The Rosehill races have been washed out here today – gloom.
Excellent commentary and insights galore…many many thanks for sharing
Thank you very much Michael. Welcome aboard
Just Steel also back in a 1 mile G3, race 8 at Oaklawn on Saturday. Tough competition featuring several from the TC trail last year. JS has raced twice already since he came back from his fracture repair, and both times he finished off the board.
Honor Marie comes back Saturday….first start since the Travers—Oaklawn….
I am also interested to see former Derby prospect Knightsbridge in the Army Mule Stakes at Gulftream this Saturday.
And Nysos has 8 workouts this year getting ready to return to the races …
Hi Nelson
I plan on taking a shot at the $.20 cent Rainbow Pick 6 on the Florida Derby card.
Knightsbridge is entered in the 11th race, the 3rd leg of the Pick 6 sequence.
I used him, along with Inveigled, who beat Knightsbridge, by 1 1/2 lengths, last out, on Feb. 15th.
In the last leg, (R14), I played two, Disruptor and Sovereignty.
Good luck tomorrow, Nelson.
The following are some fun facts about the Florida Derby after scanning through its results since 1991.
In the last 34 editions no horse has won starting from post positions one (1) and nine (9).
Post position 9 got zero wins out of the 26 editions that featured nine or more runners in their fields.
So, if Neoequos wins the Florida Derby he would be the first one doing it from post position 1; and, providing no scratches, Tappan Street would be the first winner starting from PP9 since 1991.
Regarding running styles, there were eight (8) wire to wire winners with another 17 winning after stalking the frontrunner at striking distance.
Among the noteworthy wire to wire winners are Holy Bull, Big Brown, Nyquist, Maximum Security, and Fierceness.
Nine (9) closers have won the Florida Derby since 1991 being Monarchos, Orb, and Forte the most memorable ones.
Most career starts before the Florida Derby: 8 (Fly So Free, Captain Bodgit, Cape Town, and Harlan’s Holiday)
Least career starts before the Florida Derby: 2 (Big Brown, Constitution, and Materiality).
Unlike Disruptor, Constitution and Materiality were undefeated in 2 starts and were comming off impressive Allowance wins (1 1/16 in 1:42 flat) and in the 1 1/8-Islamorada Handicap (in 1:49 1/5) respectively.
Gen Duke is the fastest Florida Derby winner with 1:46.80 in 1957 and the second fasterst is Alydar with 1:47 flat.
The fastest time this Century was by Always Dreaming with 1:47.47.
The average time is 1:49.70.
Only one time the FlaDerby was run over a sloppy track (1993 with Bull in the Heather winning in 1:51.38).
Nyquist won over a track labelled good.
Finally, the largest winning margin is 13.5 lengths (Fierceness).
I could read stuff like that all day. Thanks for posting.
Thanks for your feedback Robert. I am glad you like it… it makes the effort worthwile …!
A lil tidbit I noticed about the Fl. Derby the other night was that Alydar was making his 13th start in the Fl. Derby then ran in Bluegrass after that!!
Thanks Nelson, only once was it a sloppy track was very interesting. Are going to do the same with the Arkansas Derby? No pressure. Ha ha
Thanks Davids… remember we have only charts available from 1991 onwards … so, researching how many times Gulftream came sloppy from 1952 to 1990 requires a deep meteorogical research…
I can tabulate some stats for the Arkansas Derby and Rebel Stakes but don’t want to give the impression I am “hijacking” the site here…!
The Florida Derby was sloppy in 1961 (Carry Back) and 1955 (Nashua). It was heavy (!!) in 1954 (Correlation).
Wow Tony … you must some wonderful newspaper clippings / horse racing scrapbook at home.
Great information… thanks!
*must have
I’m embarrassed by the amount of source material I’ve amassed. Ha ha!
“Deep meteorological research”. Lol
All good, Nelson. Whatever you provide here I’m sure it’s greatly appreciated.
Yeah good stuff Nelson, thanks!!
Thanks Bruce… your comment means a lot here…!
Nelson, those are fun facts indeed. I was most surprised about Post Position 1. I think that “record” is safe for this year. I was also amazed that the FD hasn’t had a sloppy track since 1993. But Florida is, after all, The Sunshine State.
Did you know that a Florida-bred hasn’t won the Florida Derby since Hal’s Hope in 2000? Since then, we’ve had winners bred in Ohio, Virginia, and New York! What makes it even stranger is that there were three Florida-bred winners in the 1990s (Unbridled, Holy Bull, and Captain Bodgit). On Saturday, the Florida-breds are Neoequos and Indecisiveness.
Todd Pletcher has won seven of the past 11 FDs, so watch out for the Gun Runner colt, Disrupter. Saturday can’t get here fast enough!
Thanks Tony …. Horses starting from post position one have not won since 1991 but there were many fast ones finishing second like High Yield, Noble Causeway, Notional, Trust N Luck, Wildcat Red and State of Honor…
PP9 has been way less luckier though with the best from that stall being Cyclone Mischief and Code of Honor (3rd)…
Disruptor has to be in the Exacta to qualify … it will be a tall order considering his lack of experience but not impossible.
I too can not wait for Saturday races … the weather forecast calls for some intermitent showers Saturday morning at Hallandale beach but it would be sunny with intermitent clouds the whole afternoon … so, it will very likely be a fast track again at the time of the Florida Derby.
I’m keeping fingers crossed that there’s not much precipitation. I hate off tracks for big races.
Neoequos is confirming that the Floridian Rated by Merit is a very good runner.
Sorcerer’s Silver (won today at GP) is another intriguing Florida-bred for Dale Romans … the undefeated son of Good Magic is very fast but looks like he can enjoy running longer …
Of course, the most exciting Florida-bred is non other than Flood Zone …
Ah…Flood Zone. What a shame.
Disruptor cannot repel the late challenge of Mott’s colt.
Interesting. Thanks for posting.
Curlin’s best progenies on the KD Tril are list below.
Journalism $825,000) – 2Time graded stake winer
Getaway Car ($700,000 – Graded/Listed stakes winner.
Grande ($300,00) – MSW/AOC winner
Whilst reviewing the entrants for the A K Derby I came across a Curlin colt that was purchased for $575,000 out of a 2YO in Training Sale. This colt by the name Bestfriend Rocket was nowhere near my radar.
He made his first start over 8 1/2F on turf under the keep and care of Bill Mott. He finished 9 of 10 by 51/2L. A start over 6 1/2F on dirt followed which resulted in 6 of 7 finish by 19L. With 2nd to last finishes in consecutive starts, the colt was switched Brittany Russell’s Laurel base.
His first for Russell resulted in a MSW win over 8 1/2F by 8 1/2L. He caught a sloppy track for his 4th and finished 3rd by 11 /4L. The colt’s 5th start was over 8 1/2F at the same venue and over a sloppy surface. He won by 5 1/4L. Three starts with Brittany Russell resulted in 2 wins and a 3rd.
The colt showed up at OK Park 2 months later for his 6th start under new trainer Wayne Lukas. He won an 81/2F AOC for the coach first out. Knowing Lukas, he wasn’t going to pass on the AK Derby with a $575,000 Curlin colt. But I concur with Lukas to give colt a shot.
His AOC race after being 2 months off shouldn’t have resulted in a win. Showing excellent gate speed, he chased the 9/5 favorite from the off and was nudged along to keep pace.
He was off the bridle and under strong urging form 4F out to reel in the leader that had found more approaching the lane. The 2nd choice, First Mission was closing like a freight train to his outside and eventually got his head in front. This is point at which where Bestfriend Rocket should have been tiring from a lack of race sharpness. But somehow found extra to forged between his joint 9/5 opponents to win by a nose.
if his win was considered noteworthy. His gallop out for another furlong plus was even more so. This colt will have no problems with 9F. If he can find the speed to hang with the top dogs. he will have an excellent chance to upset.
Curlin’s best KD finishers are Good Magic and Keen Ice. Both were produced with mares from the Northern Dancer line. Bestfriend Rocket’s dam was sired by Noble Causeway.
Actually Exagerator was 2 nd in the derby and then won the Preakness so u forgot about him
J expect Citizen Bull will have an easy lead….Bob isn’t going to challenge himself—if Journalism can do it afain…beat Bob on an easy lead—look out!
Hi Matthew , if Barnes runs, there will definitely be a challenge, he needs points. Imagine the owner of Barnes being told he’s not going to challenge CB because they share the same trainer. The RL was a joke because CB was allowed to lollygag along. CB better hope Barnes isn’t running because here comes the freight train 🚂 named Journalism. Remember CB Was a longshot who won the BC Juvenile.
They all have to prove they can get the distance, this one being 9 f.
Agree…in the Robert Lewis, CB got an “escort” around the track by his stablemates who chose not to challenge him…woild love to see what CB does when chllenged for real…way overrated.
Agree Dominic.
There is a popular quote uttered each year regarding KD prospect.
“TP and BB are loaded”
Why does is it significant that a trainer with 65 starters in 23 KDs with 2 wins has a loaded barn?
Why does it matter that a trainer with 5 KD wins with an average win margin of a little over 1L and who has been represent by 9 of 11 losing favorite, barn is loaded?
I suspect the barns of TP and BB are loaded in 2025. The score card for KD preps makes for interesting reading.
TP – zero
BB – 2
Brad Cox – 4
With 6 US base KD Preps remaining. Will the two Barnes that have dominated KD preps over the year improve their numbers.
Has Brad Cox operation revealed a changing of the guards.
It’s a 20 horse field….not easy to win….Pletcher has won two–I know Bob has some nice ones….I haven’t read that Todd is “loaded” this year….but you seem to make posts about how certain trainers are overrated—and then avoid saying any good points about their horses—HOW can you call that being OBJECTIVE? Barnes is 2 for 3 with a real good 2nd—readibg your postings. you’d think he was without any chance! Everyone knows Todd has a low winning percentage, in The Derby—you really don’t need to remind us ad nauseum—John Sadler had a tough time in the Breeders Cup—until he won the Classic, twice—if you’re going to accentuate the negative. ..at least include the FACT of his overall statistics….Pletcher’s are pretty good!…
Matthew…every year baffert/pletcher are overbet come derby time. For whatever reason people love to bet those horses….if any trainer was 2 for 65 at say 1st off the claim or blinkers on e.g. bettors would run the other way. Why does that change come derby time?
As for bb….he gets way overbet because people dont want to think or do research…so they bet bb no matter what, just because….this year is no different. I cant imagine any of bbs horses being the favorite this year but it certainly wouldnt surprise me…as Bill Parcells likes to say…you are what your record says you are. Really, how good is baffert? Does anybody know his record overall in the derby?
I’m pretty sure that everyone here knows what Baffert’s derby record is….except for you. But people on the extremes of the Baffert question cannot think rationally.
You got nothing right in your post, except that some Baffert derby runners have been overbet. That’s not breaking news! Pletcher has had just two derby favorites, and one of them won. And since you asked, Baffert has had six winners (7 if you count a horse that was DQed but paid off as the winner) in 21 derbies. You do the math on his win percentage. And you really don’t think that if Citizen Bull were to defeat Journalism at SA by, let’s say, a widening two lengths, he wouldn’t be the derby favorite?
If everything apart from who the trainer is says that a derby runner is the best bet, no experienced handicapper would say NO because of the trainer’s derby record — particularly one of the most successful trainers in history. You compared derby percentages to first off the claim. Really?
You didnt get it! I said if a trainer had any stat “SUCH AS 1ST OFF THE CLAIM, BLINKERS ON ETC” of 2 for 65 PEOPLECWOULD BET AGAINST…AND I GOT EVERYTHING RIGHT…CB IS WAY OVERRATED…IF HE WAS TRAINED BY LONNIE BRILEY HE WOULDnt EVEN BE IN THE TOP DOZEN IMO…baffert has nothing this year but sprinters and milers….Nelson Mann and Counterpoint provide some nice research…you ought to check it out!
The Bull crushed at the juvenile won 2 year old championship. He crushed opening race for his 3 year old season. He might crush again in the SA derby and people will say he won on a lonely lead or make up some other fantasy in their brain. If he loses, they can say I told ya so. Good lord.
Dominic, you’re on point.
Thx Mike, been reading your comments on a coiple of these blogs last 5 years or so….always good stuff!
Thanks Dominic.
And you get everything right in your posts, Tony?
Hmmm…Cavalier was around 10-1 (beat a nose)…Silver Charm around 9/2…Real Quiet 12-1…..War Emblem 20-1….Medina Spirit 12-1……American Pharoah 5/2….Justify 7/2?…..Betting Bob probably puts you in the positive side of the ledger..
Forgetting one…Pioneerof the Nile paid $8 to place.
Authentic 8-1….BB may get overbet in preps—he has paid quite well on First Saturday in May….
Exactamente! Then there was his newly acquired War Emblem at 20-1. The lightly raced Bodemeister was 4-1.
Here is an update i just recieved that for some part owners would make them happy but for me i dont like the decision . Lukas has decided to wheel Caldera back and run him in the Bluegrass. He said he feels Caldera deserves a change to try to get in the DERBY , after his horrible start and doesn’t feel he used up to much energy.
I consider Caldera to be a slow horse for the 10F KD. Acknowledge what you have and direct him where he can be competitive.
Hard to judge that from a colt that’s only raced 4 times and had a horrible trip in the La derby. He’s bred to go long all day long
Sounds like Wayne to me.
Yes, too bad.
Yep. I’d rather skip and let him mature for a big summer
Agreed Mark.
Eastern Avenue should have the same path. Wait for the summer before it’s too late
We’ll see.
Mark, do y’all have any say, or is it a this is how it is type situation?
Looking like everybody wants in off of the Bluegrass.
This coming August, Mike Smith will be 60 years old, which seems rather old for a jockey to remain competitive. Evidently, Bob Baffert must have full confidence in “Money Mike” or he would not have chosen him as Tyler Gaffalione’s replacement aboard Madakat Road. In four career starts, four different jockeys have ridden Madakat Road, Mike Smith will be the 5th different rider. With the availability of Dettori, who rode MR in the Robert B. Lewis, you would think he might have picked up the mount, instead of Mike Smith.
Bob Baffert has been known to make surprise announcements, but this one is a real head scratcher, IMO.
Hello Bill,
I hope all is well.
I noted your disclosure of Mike Smith’s pending 60th. My thoughts immediately defaulted to Cornucopian being a 4-prong walking stick, not yet broken in for the elderly jockey. The combination can in no way be an appealing wager. But I will never forget that age is just a number. My dad is on his other side of 95 and lives alone in England.
One a subject not ae related. Into Mischief has several progenies on the trail of which 3 ae in Steve’s top 4. Is it accurate to state that only two have won 3YO KD Preps i.e., Citizen Bull and Sovereignty. If so, that’s not what was anticipated with so many prospects.
Not This Time covered 160 mares in 2021 that yielded 130a reported live foals. Into Mischief covered 216 mares in 2021 that yielded a reported 172 live foals. Not This time has the Lecomte, Jeff Ruby and FOY winners.
If cornucopian win the AK Derby and Sovereignty wins the FL Derby. Not This Time will be ahead by 1 3YO KD Prep. Citizen Bull will have to win the SA Derby for a tie.
Two of the most impressive Prep winners have been via Not This Time i.e., Magnitude and Final Gambit.
It appears Into Mischief has a rival stallion.
Finally, the morning line odds on the Florida Derby have been posted:
1) Neoequos, 10-1
2) Cool Intentions, 20-1
3) Smoken Boy, 30-1
4) Disruptor, 4-1
5) Indecisiveness, 301
6) Jimmy’s Dailys, 12-1
7) Enterdadragon, 30-1
8) Madaket Road, 7/2
9) Tappan Street, 5-1
10) Sovereignty, 8/5
edit: Indecisiveness, 30-1
I’m just not sure about Indecisiveness.
😉
I would bet on Tappan Street at 5-1.
Bill, I admit I initially thought the same thing as you (especially as i’m aware you are quite a bit older than Mike!) My guess is that Mike is in pretty good shape for a 50 year old. Now when he hits 60, that’s another story.
Oops, 59 year old.
Hi Bill Dawson,
In response to your comment about Mike Smith being chosen to ride Madakat Road, maybe he was chosen as he has won quite a number of Florida Derbies. Mike Smith started his riding career on the East Coast.
Riding at the distance of 1 1/8 to 1 1/4 is unique at Gulfstream as one comes up to the turn quickly out of the gate.
I read about an interview with a jockey agent. The agent said that older riders do well because of their experience. That’s why they are selected for their mounts.
Madakat Road is the second choice in the Florida Derby due to post position, and I think because of him being a son of Quality Road (who favored Gulfstream and set track records there.
Hi Terri
Your points are well taken. However, at 59, I believe Mike Smith’s best years are behind him. Regardless of the sport, some athletes refuse to face the fact that it’s time to retire, not only for their own safety, but for wellbeing of their respective families.
From my perspective, for Mike to continue to ride, at his age, is a risky endeavor.
That said, I wish Mike the best of luck aboard Madakat Road.
With respect to the Florida Derby, I remain loyal to Sovereignty,
I’ll key Sovereignty on top, with Neoequos, Disruptor, Madaket Road and Tappan Street underneath in the 2nd, 3rd and 4th slots.
That is: 10/ 1,4,8,9/ 1,4,8,9/ 1,4,8,9 ($2.00 super p/w wager)
Good luck Terri
Thanks for your response Bill Dawson.
I agree with much you have said.
I am pulling for Sovereignty and Bill Mott to win. Bill Mott is a wonderful, honest, and ethical trainer. And Sovereignty is such a talented and fast stallion.
To be honest, I am not pleased that Bob Baffert entered Madakat Road in the Florida Derby. He would be better running in either Pat Day Mile or in the Preakness. I think he is trying to pull a fast one by running a fast one by running MR in the Florida Derby.
I agree that one has to retire at some point. I retired at age 69 and I am glad that I did.
I hope that Mike Smith continues in the sport in some other capacity either as an assistant trainer or advisor.
With the unfortunate injury to Tyler Gaffalione, the mount on East Avenue opens up in the Blue Grass. A must win situation, or at least a must run well situation, for the horse if he is going to make it into the Derby.
Irad Ortiz and Luis Saez both have terrific records when riding for Brendan Walsh. A couple of obvious A-list subs.
What’s Manny Franco doing on Bluegrass Day?
I think Manny has his Derby mount.
Tommy … I believe Manny Franco will pilot Captain Cook in the Wood …. the son of Practical Joke will likely be his Derby mount …
I think you are right.
Frankie will get the mount.
Good choice.
Saffie Joseph has horses entered in 12 of the 14 races at Gulfstream on Saturday. Multiple entries in many of those 12 races. He should have a big day on Saturday.
Bill Mott only has horses entered in four races. He could have a big day too with Knightsbridge and Sovereignty. Maybe one of the others as well.
Add in possible Bob Baffert and Nick Zito sightings and it could be a truly special day.
Bob won’t be at Gulfstream Sat…At least I don’t think so….probably Oaklawn….
You are probably right.
Not a positive report today on Barnes according to the DRF. Another ‘uninspiring’ workout yesterday for this horse. Perhaps losing a shoe during the San Felipe was more significant than originally thought.
Workout was on Sunday, and without blinkers. Blinkers will be going back on
I have heard about his bad works all year–maybe he’s not a good worker—we shall see soon enough….
Two wins, with one being by a nose from 3 starts isn’t deserving of the hype.
My take on Barnes had absolutely nothing to do with hate of either horse or trainer. But rather the hype for an unknow, untested and unproven colt that was projected to emerge as the winner of KD 2025 because he is trained by BB.
The hype and projection constituted a slap in the face of other and trainers with talented horse.
You should be happy with the hype, as it gives you better odds on other runners.
I thought his first start was pretty good…he got stuck in an inside pocket…got out on wrong lead…drifted wide but he got there, in fast time–‘it’s not like you to just call it anose win…his only loss he beat Rodrigues more than 9 lengths, I really like Rod! You’re hung up on the purchase price—$$3.2 means there were OTHERS that wanted him….he’s built—in those three starts his owners probably recouped his purchase price, RELAX—enjoy the show, it’s the best time of the year—for Thoroughbred Racing….
Matthew W, like Steve mentioned yesterday…’don’t waste your time’.
The last Barnes’ two workouts in company with Cornucopian (on March 17) and Rodriguez (on March 23) saw him always behind the two and never able to pass them running on the outside…
Barnes looked better than Rodriguez when they worked together back in October and December … and Barnes looked good working with Getaway Car and Madaket Road in two workouts in November.
Cornucopian and Rodriguez are developing faster, are better morning horses or Barnes got some hoof issues as you suspect … Afernoons migth be very different … we shall see as Matthew said…
Subject to correction there have been 4 winners of the Kentucky Derby and Breeders Cup Classic in the same year-
1989 – Sunday silence
1990 – Unbridled
2015 – American Pharaoh
2020 – Authentic
The achievements of Sunday Silence and Unbridled as sires is legendary. They were trained and conditioned by old school trainers. I consider it safe to state that what both horses displayed on the racetrack was based on share ability, aided by no additives.
The last two horses to achieve the KD/BCC victories in the same year were AP and Authentic. Both were trained and conditioned by BB.
Will either Authentic or AP emerge as top-class sire in the category of Sundy silence and Unbridled? AP has had enough big books of mares and hasn’t been associated with a seriously outstanding racer. Authentic is relatively new to stallion duties and must be given additional time.
AP will be represented in the A K Deby by the maiden Publisher. Authentic will be represented by 2Times winner Cool Intention in the FL Derby. Can both combine to make history as unlikely winners of the respective KD Preps?
Publisher was last seen closing late to secure 4th in the Rebel after being slightly hindered in the lane. Blinkes have been added for the AK Deby. This could induce a forwardly placed cruising position and allowed for less ground to cover to hopefully reel in the leaders. He must have puncher’s a shot.
Cool Intention was last seen in the MMM, early off the bridle, which followed by a dull 5th place effort in the slowly run race. That was bout 12 weeks ago. In the colt’s race prior to the MMM. He won over 7F with fractions and a final time that indicate he ran way blow his best in the MMM. He was produced from an unraced Steet Cry mare whose dam earned $1.5M. A Street Cry mare mut be a big plus in any pedigree.
Whilst neither colt is expected to win. I am dreaming that both can finish 2nd. If the respective sires are worth their salt this should be achievable. Both stallions might not be in the category of Sundy Silence and Unbridled. But a cut below should get the job done.
Dreams are free but so too are nightmares.
Be thankful I kept the rest of this comment in. The next time it will all go. And I’m sure you are aware by now what actions will follow. Can I put it any more delicately than that? The rest is up to you
In 10 of the last 12 Florida derbies, the winner went off at odds of 3-1 or lower. The other two were 9-2 and 5-1. The only FD winners with odds of more than 7-1 in the past quarter century were Ice Box (20-1) in 2010 and Friends Lake (37-1) in 2004.
Are you suggesting a longshot is overdue? You have cool Intentions.
As always you entertain us all with your commentary and insight. I myself value your insight as much as or more than any handicapping tool.your love of the game shines through always. Thank you for YOU.
Thank you so much. That means a lot.
Im curious to see if Baffert actually does enter Barnes and runs him as he said. Hes been very non talkative about him and does it really make sense to run your two best horses with speed against each other? Well soon find out.
Well Barnes and Citizen Bull are both nominated to the Keeneland Bluegrass and Santa Anita Derby. Barnes is also nominated to the Wood.
I would think he splits them up, but like you said, we’ll soon know.
He told me Santa Anita Derby and Rodriguez possible for Blue Grass or Wood. But you never know.
Rodriguez looks like another horse with blinkers off in AM….
Churchill Downs Inc has been tweaking their points allocations for qualification and maybe they should half the points for entries of common trained and owned horses if there were was a scenario of 1 and 1 A. And if there were three entries 1, 1A, 1X then one third the points.
Hi Steve – IMO if Barnes runs in the SA Derby, this only enhances Journalism’s chances to win the race. He can let Barnes do all the dirty work keeping CB in his sights, while Journalism won’t be too far off of the pace and keep both of them in his sights before unleashing his relentless run to overtake them. With Barnes in the race, CB won’t be able to jog around there like he did in the R.Lewis and pick up a check .
My first thought was that California based horses invading Florida was a rarity; but searching the pertinent charts for the last 50 years I found as many as eight making the 2400-mile trip from California to Florida:
Badger Land was 2nd in the 1986 Florida Derby and stayed in Florida to win the Everglades and Flamingo Stakes at Hialeah Park.
Talinum wins the 1987 Flamingo Stakes with the other Californian invader, Rupperto, finishing 4th. Cryptoclearance was the runner-up.
Talinum stays for the Florida Derby to finish 3rd behind Cryptoclearance and No More Flowers in a 3-horse photo finish.
High Yield won the 2000 Fountain of Youth and was the runner up in the Florida Derby.
It was the era of D. Wayne Lukas shipping his horses all over America.
Empire Maker wins the 2023 Florida Derby by a record margin (9 3/4 lengths) for Robert Frankel.
A Californian sprinter named Stormello was 4th in the 2007 Florida Derby following a creditable runner-up effort in the Fountain of Youth.
Nyquist, Spielberg, and Fort Bragg were the latest California based horses to run in the Florida Derby. The former was a dazzling winner while Spielberg ran a subpar race finishing 8th 17 lengths behind Known Agenda. The son of Union Rags must have had physical troubles as he spent 9 months sidelined after that blunder.
Bob Baffert was deputized by Tim Yakteen in the 2023 Florida Derby with the speedball Fort Bragg (Tapit) who finished 5th nine lengths behind champion Forte after leading up to the 7-furlong pole.
After gathering this list I would say that the Californians invaders merit respect as they seem to run well when visiting Florida for the first time…
Bob Baffert is looking for vindication by winning the Florida Derby for the first time with another speedball in Madaket Road.
Gulfstream park is a speed favoring track and 18 horses with Madaket Road’s running style have won the last 34 editions of the Florida Derby… he should be able to run his race as long as there is no shipping issues risking his health…
Snow Chief won that 1986 Florida Derby, beating Badger Land….both shipped cross country..
Nelson, even if all west coast trainers shipped 10 or 12 in 50 years, it’s pretty close to rare. How many has Baffert sent to the Florida Derby?
Yes Tony … I did scan only 40 years (from 1986 to 2024) … the 50 years in the post was a typo…
Anyway, inprinciple I only had Nyquist, Spielberg and Fort Bragg in my memory as the invaders … but I had to browse the last 40 charts/results to learn about the other… so, only 3 was a rarity but, as you said, even 8 in 40 years is far from a common occurrence…
I an exchange I had with Davids we conceded that shipping coast-to-coast is a risky business …
Thanks again for your reply Tony… I really appreciate your enlingtening feedbacks …
Thanks, Nelson. I’m a KD fanatic, and your contributions here add to my knowledge base and pique my interest. 🙂
Thank you very much for the reminder Matthew … I knew I was missing one (Snow Chief) when I counted 8 Cal-horses invading the Florida Derby and I named 7…
The Florida Derby was held on March 1st and the Santa Anita Derby a month later… Snow Chief won both Derbies coast to coast…amazing!
It is really good to count on you all to complement and quality assure historical information… I really appreciate that!
I should stop posting so late at nights…LOL
I loved Snow Chief. A true black beauty, when the JC would register them as black. That was a good crop.
Thanks Nelson, for all your work, you made me go through all the Flamingo Stakes records as well.
There is another huge day of racing at Randwick on Saturday if your interested I will put the races in here later but it’s going to rain in Sydney- again- on Saturday.
At Flemington on Saturday it’s actually going to rain, perhaps even heavy, but we need it desperately here.
Today, Tyler Gaffalione suffered a broken ankle and will not ride Madaket Road in the Florida Derby. Mike Smith has been picked as the replacement rider aboard Madaket Road.
Now, it’s back to the drawing board on my superfecta bet.
I’m beginning to think the loss of two jockeys in the Fla. Derby could be a bad omen for the other riders.
Safe trips to all.
Black magic?
It would be nice if Mike Smith wins with Madaket Road and keep the mount in the Derby…!
👍
Yes, Nelson, keep those positive thoughts channeling through. All we need is Shug to get Statesman over the line in the Wood Memorial then we’ll have a “Back to the Future” 2025 Kentucky Derby.
Wayne and Bob and Shug and Lonnie, and Mike and even Frankie Ha ha the good ol’ boys ride again!!
Mike Smith won the Florida Derby from 1994 to 1996 with Holy Bull, Thunder Gulch, and Unbridled’s Song; and Manny Franco won the Florida Derby with Tiz The Law and hungry for more… so, Madaket Road and Sovereignty are in good hands.
Imagine the headlines if Mike Smith wins this 4th Florida Derby after 29 years since Unbridled’s Song….
Nelson Maan, That would be some win!!
I bet they’re both excited about the opportunities that have opened up, despite the circumstances. Fortunately, their friends and colleagues are here among the living.
You have to think Mike Smith has history on his mind. What a good pick for Madaket Road, who could be this week’s Tiztastic. He has never finished off the board. His sire won the Florida Derby, and the same family that produced his dam is responsible for the MGSW Smok’n Frolic (a millionaire stakes winner from 7-8.5F). He could spring a Real Quiet-esque surprise.
For Manny Franco, this could be the opportunity of a lifetime. I suspect that fact is not lost on him.
Best of luck, good breaks, and safe trips for all!
Oh no! They’ve got really bad juju going!
Shout out to the Racing Dudes ‘Talkin Track’ for recommending this site. This is good stuff!
Great to have you aboard.. please join in anytime.
Steve
Spendthrift Farm’s homebred colt, Accelerize, looked super impressive going 7 furlongs in 1:21.20, on March 8th. Setting torrid fractions of 21.87, 45.03, 1:09.11, he drew off by 7 3/4 lengths, with little urging.
I’m just wondering if you’ve heard where his connections will point him next. Obviously, it’s very late to consider a Derby prep race, but you never know. This colt could be a freak. His pedigree reflects impressive speed, class and stamina (top and bottom).
Any thoughts on Accelerize would be appreciated.
Thanks, Steve.
Hi everyone:
I just read a story on DRF that quoted the trainer of Bullard as saying he most likely will appear next in the Lexington, not the Santa Anita Derby as I thought. If there’s only a five-horse field, won’t CD cut the points again?
Sheriffs is entering an extra horse, so should be six
Thanks, Jeff.
Why did Cornucopion start his career so late?
According to Baffert they had scheduled Cornucopian in a four furlong race last year during the summer meet at Del Mar but came up with some issues that delayed his start. I heard that sometime prior that he actually beat Citizen Bull in a workout but can’t confirm.
As the old saying goes….’better late than never’.
A 4f race in the summer? When does Baffert debut a Derby prospect in a 4f race? If true, he must have thought “sprinter” and pointed Corny to 2yo sprint stakes.
Calif racing 2 year old season has 4f races to commence its season.
Sorry if I wasn’t clear. My point was that Baffert may not have viewed Corny as a Derby horse.
The four furlong races were earlier in the meeting…
We’re not on the same page. I’ll stop now.
Guess that doesn’t matter now; seems like he currently thinks he does
Sometimes thinking and actually being are a long way from reality.
By the sound of things, Barnes might just make it to the Pat Day Mile after all.
Steve we were told Monday that Caldera is fine and scoped and walked perfectly. Tyler said after the bad break and then being smashed by two horses he thought he would have folded earlier but he kept trying. He said at the turn he just came up empty so he moved him to the rail and eased him . No immediate plans for him to try and make the derby. Hoping its a blessing in disguise.
The way he stumbled I wouldn’t be surprised if he grabbed a quarter which is common when a horse stumbles like that out of the gate.
Steve we were told Monday that Caldera is fine and scoped and walked perfectly. Tyler said after the bad break and then being smashed by two horses he thought he would have folded earlier but he kept trying. He said at the turn he just came up empty so he moved him to the rail and eased him . No immediate plans for him to try and make the derby.
Great read as always. Last Saturdays racing was really exciting and full of surprises. I’m so glad California Burrito is safe. It was scary.
Some fabulous horses heading into the Ky Derby.
Can’t wait to watch the Ark Derby.
Safe racing to all.
Go Coal Battle!
Absolutely, Delrene! Burrito in the stretch made my blood pressure sky rocket, so I can’t imagine how scary it was for the connections. I am also pulling for Coal Battle all the way.
Ahead of the Los Al futurity I advised the fans of Journalism to bet the mortgage as BB’s horses shouldn’t be feared as the y are moderate. I was taken to task for having the audacity of refereeing to G1 winer Gaming as moderate.
Well, two have shipped and both have been beaten. Journalism has beaten either 5 or 6, including multi-million yearling Barnes. The new sensation is the impressive 6F MSW winner Cornucopian.
The Into Mischief colt who is the ML favorite for the AK Derby appears to be the new Barnes. The multi-million Barnes was favored to win the KD off a 5 1/2F MSW win by a nose. Something must be in the air that is allowing for these projections.
I once referred to trainer BB as being worshipped but that didn’t sit well with some. Consequently, I have replaced worshiped with iconized.
What differentiates Cornucopian from the following impressive MSW winners and were they being considered the next TC winner?
Patch Adams – 7F in 1:20+ by 10L
John Hancock – F in 1:09+ by 3L (debut)
Disruptor – 7F 1:22+ by 91/2F
Accelerize – 7Fin 1:21.20 by 71/2L
The BB effect knows no boundaries. Can a run of success in the TC series elevate a particular trainer to divine status? BB might have won 6 KD and is associated with two TC winners. But he isn’t capable of miracles and doesn’t perform magic.
BB didn’t win the KD for a span of 12 years despite having the post time favorite more than once.
The last time BB was voted Outstanding Trainer was in 2015 the AP year. Prior to 2015 it was 1999. So, in a span of 25-years, BB secured the Eclipse for Outstanding Trainer once. He was OT for 3 consecutive years 1997-1999. Chad Brown/TP/ Bobby Frankel 4 consecutive
He had the KD post time favorite 11 times and only secured 2 wins – AP/JUSTIFY
He has been represented by multiple entrants in the KD on several occasions and came away with Zero. The last being in 2019 – Game Winner/Roadster/Improbable
BB is as normal as night follows day. There is absolutely no need to view his race entrants differently from those of other accomplished trainer and even those not so accomplished. A KD winner can emerge from any barn. Such is the nature of the race.
The guy has won a bunch of big races, Derby is 20 horses, he got beat a nostril with a Cal bred…then won quite a few—you seem confused, by people’s interest in his horses, are you new at this? (hehe) look up the name, it’s Bob Baffert—whole bunch of Derby winners and couple of Triple Crowns—He also had three entrants one year, and all three didn’t hit the board—Game Winner, Road Trip, Improbable—why don’t you write about that!..
So, after all your jibble, BB is still near 20% win rate for KD favorites, which is great. Tell us what current trainer would you select to win the KD? Brown at 0%, Pletcher near 3%? Please advise.
The hand wringing will begin for some after Derby.
How about BILL MOTT.. CP is 100 pct right on
Hear you Dominic.
Thanks CounterPoint. I know exactly where to file this. Instead, I’ll just borrow a term from President Trump with his recent exchange with Ukraine President Zelenskyy…..but with opposite meaning. That it, Baffert always seems to have the ‘cards to play with’.
And more often than most trainers-they win. Just scoll down to a comment I made about Chad Brown still looking for his first KD, as with Steve Asmussen, as with Godolphin Stables etc….
You are all wasting your time.
Mr. Haskin, comment regarding JS intended for Goggin.
John Sherriffs won a Derby.
See Steve Haskins comments. I did. And so should you.
I think he struck out this year with sprinters and milers.
Agreed.
“BB didn’t win the KD for a span of 12 years despite having the post time favorite more than once.”
Right, twice. The first was Lookin At Lucky. From post 1, he had trouble from the start. Two weeks later, he won the Preakness. The second was Bodemeister, who set very fast fractions yet finished second by 1.5 lengths. It was perhaps the best losing Derby performance I’ve seen.
Two valid points
Two Phil’s ran better…
Maybe. But there were TWO of him. 😉
Right on!
Right on, Coldfacts!
Superb reading, Steve!
I wonder if Chunk Of Gold could be the Mystik Dan of 2025? He comes from some families that I like.
Apologies to Lonnie Briley for my lapse of faith. We just don’t know him yet! In fairness to the horse, Coal Battle himself was never in question for me. I think Mr. Briley tries not to say too much, because he does not want the spell to break. You can tell he doesn’t want to see Coal Battle, in his words, “get his feelings hurt.” He seems to know and love his horse, and has taken the time to figure out what makes him tick. The Arkansas Derby should be a serious challenge for the small barn, humble roots heroes. I really want this one for them!
American Promise the Sherman Tank! 😂 I literally laughed out loud.
Final Gambit’s last furlong sure looked like a Turf closing kick to me. I like that horse. I’m sure Brad Cox would like to get the Derby monkey off his back, so I bet he’s hoping for the Animal Kingdom sign, too.
I love the plan for Maximum Promise. I want to see them try!
Have they done your second eye yet, or did you need both? Or did you have both surgeries already? Best of luck! If anything, it has enhanced the Dozen!
Not yet. In june actually the first 6 or 7 Rankings I was half blind .
I know that it probably hasn’t been easy to manage the blog and take it easy so your implant lens can settle in. You’re knocking it out of the park, and with a quirky group of horses to evaluate, to boot! Take care of yourself, my friend!
How can Manuel Franco take off his nine scheduled mounts at Aqueduct on Saturday and ride Sovereignty at Gulfstream?
I thought there were Rules of Racing.
Happens all the time
I thought a “call” was a “call.” But like everything else nowadays…I guess not.
isn’t he the regular rider for the sidelined Immersive?
For a graded steak race anything’s possible
David, Heart worked in blinkers today – he’ll likely be wearing them in the UAE Derby
I think that tells you how concerned they are about his lack of speed – making such a huge change before a huge race. As you know, I’m somewhat down on him because of this lack of speed. The only time he’s shown any was in his maiden win, when the jock urged him on due to a wide post
So, I guess we’ll see how it all shakes out
Betsy, I wouldn’t be too concerned, Jamie Osborne said to At The Races in late February that “if we can sharpen him up a little bit, and he can hold position better in the UAE Derby” he’s a very live chance.
No point second guessing what a trainer is up to, Osborne has won the UAE Derby beforehand. Perhaps, you are transferring some of your anxiety/excitement of your upcoming holiday to the UK on to Heart Of Honor in the UAE Derby. Ha ha
You are even getting me anxious a bit now. Ha ha You are going to have a fabulous holiday in the UK, and Heart Of Honor is going to perform well in the UAE Derby. Positive, positive, positive!!
Oh I’m not concerned about the blinkers – I just find it interesting that they’re considering a big move before a big race
Jamie tweeted the work – it did look like it helped Heart jump out of the gate, so…we’ll see!
LOL poor horse – carrying his jock AND the burden of my nerves, lol
Heart has never run a bad race – I’m positive he’ll run another good one!
Betsy, the last thing we want is an outside post. That really is throwing in the towel before the race has started. Ha ha
Is the field going to be that big that an outside post would be that bad? Eek, lol
Betsy, a likely field for all the Dubai World Cup came out a few days ago. The UAE Derby ‘likely’ field consisted of 11 runners.
Betsy, don’t forget Honor Marie is entered Race 11 at Oaklawn Park the American Pharoah Stakes on Saturday.
Enterdadragon seems like a viable longshot for the exotics in the Florida Derby.
Sovereignty, Tappan Street, and Madaket Road will be the top guns but there is always a chance of a pace hot enough to allow a closer to sneak into the Trifectas and Superfectas.
Nine career starts (albeit 8 on turf) gives Enterdadragon a solid foundation. His last was his best performance looking really good closing against Mi Bago who flew in 1:32 2/5 for the mile of the Colonel Liam Stakes. This was the fastest mile on turf for 3-year-olds this year. Enterdadragon ran the last quarter mile in 23 2/5 signaling that the 1 1/8 mile will greatly favor him. The son of Outwork has become a closer in 2025 which is making him more effective…
The turf-to-dirt angle has been successful for many 3-year-olds with dirt-oriented pedigrees. Some examples are Hill Road, Coal Battle, Tiztastic, First Resort, Poster, and Kale’s Angel among the ones with Stakes experience.
Enterdadragon’s pedigree is for the dirt and his two other siblings are exclusively dirt runners
I only paid attention to him and his pedigree after reading Steve’s comments. I was glad to see that he descends from the finest Phipps family. His third dam is champion My Flag (EASY GOER – PRIVATE ENSIGN) … not bad for a $17K-horse.
Trainer Jose Francisco D’Angelo, who had No More Time in the Derby trail last year with 45 points, got good numbers when moving to dirt from the turf.
Enterdadragon at 30 to 1 is an enticing play in the Florida Derby…
Not bad for the third and fourth slots. Good luck!
Steve, what a day of racing last Saturday in both hemispheres. Dreams and schemes and circus crowds, the racing provided all that and more. High emotion, the roar and exhilaration as your favorites denied the other runners.
The racing at Rosehill for Golden Slipper day was sublime, with nearly every race won by a separation of bobbing heads. This Saturday is almost just as good with two Group 1s, two Group 2s and four Group 3s. More of that later in the week.
All the excitement but what have we learnt on the Derby Trail, don’t expect what you’ve been told to expect. I listened and read so many analysis of the upcoming Louisiana Derby but poor little Tiztastic was never mentioned as a possible winner. What fun it was to see Tiztastic take charge and run away with the prize.
Everything was going to plan for California Burrito in the Jack Ruby Steaks until that awkward step then all the adrenaline drained from your body as you watched in dread of what could have happened – sometimes the angels are on your side. God bless.
Steve, thanks again for your never ending story as we march to the beat that draws us closer and closer to Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May. The jigsaw puzzle is starting to solidify into a picture that will require more than a few glances to work out.
Who isn’t pumped for this Saturday’s rumble in the jungle? Good luck to those whose favorites make it into the Derby field this weekend but be always on your guard because success walks hand in hand with failure in the glittery world of horse racing.
Thanks again, Steve.
What happened in the Golden Slipper? Amazing how that race got so big. I guess if you offer the .money.
Steve, the Golden Slipper was a great race won by the filly Marhoona by a nose over the Wootton Bassett colt, Wodeton, ridden by the mercurial James McDonald a head away to another filly, Tempted, then a neck way from the Too Darn Hot colt, Rivellino in fourth. The latter two both had troubled trips but that’s the mo of the Golden Slipper – too many runners in the race.
For a change, the weather in Sydney was picture perfect for the Golden Slipper. There is so much history behind the Golden Slipper with all the preps well known to the racing public. It’s a perfect vehicle to introduce new runners to the racing fans every year. Their names are household names at 2 years so the public can follow their careers from their inception into racing.
The Triple Crown for two year olds will continue on with the Sires Produce Stakes at 7 furlongs at Randwick then the Champagne Stakes also at Randwick at 1 mile.
The second leg of the Australian Triple Crown for 3 year olds the Rosehill Guineas at 10f was run and won on Saturday by Broadsiding the first leg the Randwick Guineas at a mile was won by Linebacker the final leg the Australian Derby at 12f is also run at Randwick.
I had a great day Saturday and Sunday morning, watching the US races, then picked up a bug Sunday night and have been off all week so haven’t posted much. Fingers crossed things will be fine by Saturday. I tested my exercise regimen to see how things were but lasted only 30 minutes then gave it away. lol.
Sounds like a wonderful day of racing, Davids. I see that Marhoona’s dam, Salma, has already produced three other stakes winners in Australia and South Africa, including the Group 2 winner Hilal. Pretty good for an unraced 14-year-old broodmare.
Yes Ms Blacktype, precocious, sprinting bloodlines are highly desirable in Australia there are so many races with outrageous prize money for sprinters starting with 2 year olds.
It was like this way back in 1969 – 1970 when I first became fascinated with Australian bloodlines. I still remember about 20 or so two year olds from that year with fond memories.
That’s great. Sort ofike the All American Futurity in quarter horse racing here. What an exciting finish that must have been.
Steve, it was a magical day at Rosehill with nearly every Group 1 race resulting in a blanket finish apart from Via Sistina winning the Ranvet Stakes her 6th Group 1 for the season thus far.
Via Sistina will be Horse of the Year and is expected to top her performance for the 2024 – 25 season by winning the Group 1 5 Million Queen Elizabeth Stakes on April 12 at Royal Randwick. Randwick is a bit like Ascot it sometimes ‘Royal’ due to when the late Queen visited Randwick decades ago.
Steve, the prize money in Australia is astronomical, I remember when Australia was a total backwash and a dumping ground for potential sires with pedigree but lackluster race results.
Now horses like City of Troy, Justify, American Pharoah, Frosted et al are shuttled here in there first year at stud.
David,
Your post was directed to Steve so I hope no offense will be taken with my response to a comment in paragraph #3.
“I listened and read so many analysis of the upcoming Louisiana Derby but poor little Tiztastic was never mentioned as a possible winner.”
You might not be aware of this, but I consider myself a top-class analyst. Well, I hope my facetious declaration has elicited the laughter for which was intended.
It appears you missed my comments, regarding Tiztastic ahead of L A Derby. I hope I am not being presumptuous to assume attention is paid to any of my posts. But for what it’s worth, I have reposted my comments below. They were initially posted to Week #8 Derby Rankings blog.
TIZTASTIC-
MSW (Chancer Mc Patrick #7) 5th by 5 3/4L
Steet Sense (Sovereignty J#1) 2nd by 5L (Sandman #11 finished 3rd)
Kentucky Jockey Club (First Resort OKDT) 3rd by 4L
Southwest (Speed King) 3rd by 2 1/2L
Rebel (Coal Battle) 5th by 6 1/2L
NB: Defeated Coal Batte by 6L in the $1M Kentucky Downs Juvenile (Turf)
No other entrant in the L A Derby field has raced against the caliber of opponents Tiztastic has matched strides against.
He is inbred 2×3 to stamina powerhouse Tapit. That should make the distance of 9 1/2F well within his competitive capability
Tiztastic appears to be the entrant to beat.
Thanks for the commentary. To be specific, the Blood Horse, Derby Dozen put Tiztastic at #11 and Byron King basically suggests that it was an accident and the competition was below level. I guess we can wait until the Triple Crown races are finished and the results will be the results.
William, like in everything ‘racing opinion’ is often guarded by best agreeing with the majority. That’s why I’ve always enjoyed reading Steve’s opinion from way, way back. He’s never afraid of thinking outside the box so to speak.
As for the Kentucky Derby, it really is a battle to get the run of the race and luck is separating factor. Luck wins it every time.
Counter Point, I had noticed your post supporting Tiztastic but I was actually referring to numerous online racing preview chat shows that I listen to while cooking a meal or completing exercise regimen on a daily basis.
Steve’s weekly Derby Rankings I read so opinions are taken in with a lot more seriousness than the chat shows although there are a couple of chat shows that are worth the listen.
The best thing for me with Tiztastic’s win was watching Joel Rosario ride the colt to his abilities the sustained run from way back was a pleasure to watch. While the caller was warbling about John Hancock et al my eyes were glued on Rosario and thought – now – and there was the immediate response. Great ride, Rosario would’ve a top jockey in Europe.
I have to agree with you on some points. Cornucopian has had exactly one race. All of Baffert’s previous Derby winners had more racing experience than that… even Justify.
Suddenly every trainer with a promising maiden wants to copy the Justify routine, and to hell with making sure a colt’s ankles hold up for more than 3 months.
Bravo Cam!
Yes Cam, I miss the days when you spotted an exciting 2 year old who may win a stakes race or two or show promise then put away over winter to only reemerge in Spring fresh a raring to go.
Now, as you have written above, it’s as late as the end of March and recent maiden winners are possibly heading for a daunting 10f stamina test in 20 horse field in a racetrack that maxes a 14 horse field. Good luck with all that.
I’m sure everyone has seen that Manny Franco will ride Sovereignty in the Florida Derby. I don’t understand people’s complaints about Franco online. I don’t play New York that often lately with Belmont being remodeled. But I always had pretty good luck with Manny Franco when I do play New York. He will do fine. Like Steve Haskin wrote, they don’t need to win. Just keep moving forward with a good run down the stretch.
I just saw Steve Haskin’s comment below about Manny Franco being chosen to ride Sovereignty. EEK! Now I’m afraid. VERY afraid. Steve Haskin knows New York racing better than I do.
Franco is a good rider. I just don’t know if his style fits Sovereignty. He hasn’t done anything in classic type races other than Tiz the Law and he had tactical speed like .most of Franos big horses. He’s. Not the patient type.
Steve: Maybe Franco was chosen as Sovereignty is racing out of post 10 in the Florida Derby. I think Mott chose him just to get going right out of the gate. Now that the starting gate has been moved back so that the turn doesn’t come up as soon. I don’t think Mott would have chosen him to ride if it weren’t for Soverignty’s outside post position.
People are telling me that Franco will keep the mount for the KD if regular jockey hasn’t healed up enough for the ride, so might not just be the Florida Derby.
I find this group of three-year-olds almost impossible to evaluate, but trying is half the fun. I’ll probably change my mind many times in the next five weeks, but this is where I am now.
I tend to see the horses in tiers. I think most will agree that the top tier is made up of Sovereignty, Journalism, and Citizen Bull in no particular order. I don’t know which is best. That may come later, but right now I’m not looking to pick one of the favorites.
My second tier consists of horses who have shown substantial ability but not as much as the top three. This includes Barnes, Coal Battle, River Thames, Burnham Square, and Tiztastic. They are good, but right now I don’t think any of them are going to win.
My third tier is the one that interests me most at this time. These are horses that captured my attention but have big question marks:
Sandman. Can he get up to win or is he a late closer who never quite makes it?
Owen Almighty. Can he go ten furlongs?
Disruptor and Cornucopian. Very impressive in maiden events but can they handle the big boys?
Baeza. I really want this horse to be good, but I consider him unproven. To get enough Derby points, he would probably have to finish second in the Santa Anita Derby, which means beating either Journalism or Citizen Bull. That’s a tough order, but I wish him well.
Publisher. He may be the most overlooked horse in any of these fields. He doesn’t have big wins to his credit, but I particularly liked his finish in the Rebel, he figures to like distance, and Flavien Prat has chosen to ride him. Like Baeza, he doesn’t have Derby points but he might have a better chance of getting them. Good luck to him.
Four of these horses are running this weekend and I’ll be very interested to see how they do and who gets the points.
I’m not big on statistics, but my favorite one is that in the past 20 years 20% of the Derby winners have paid more than $100.00. If this is another year for longshots, even if they are not hundred dollar longshots, these are the horses I’m going to be watching. This is going to be a very exciting weekend.
Jiffy, I’m somewhat in the same boat as you in that it’s difficult to evaluate them. I distinctly don’t like front runners or, more specifically, those who are totally dependent on the lead to win.
They win the preps in style to get into the Kentucky Derby but what’s going to happen come the first Saturday in May when half a dozen of them want the lead?
In horse races that stop the nation, like the Melbourne Cup, Kentucky Derby, Grand National et al, it’s usually an underdog the nation want to win. If Coal Battle were to win the Kentucky Derby there wouldn’t be a dry eye in the house. Bring on the fairy tale…
Yes, Coal Battle would certainly be a popular winner, and I wish him well. But I’m going in a different direction. Some of the horses I mentioned are so lightly raced that we don’t really know whether they must be on the lead or whether they can take back if necessary. We also don’t know which ones will get enough points to run. But on my list of possible longshots, I’ve got at least two closers who would love to see the pacesetters run each other into the ground.
Yes, Jiffy, I have a couple myself but there’s still a long way to go yet. Not to mention the dreaded wait from last prep until they are in the gate. Good luck.
Yes, indeed. I learned from Forte that even the morning of the race is too soon to start counting roses.
Yes, Jiffy, there have been too many late withdrawals from the Kentucky Derby which have spoiled the day. A. P. Indy and I Want Revenge in particular were late withdrawals that ruined my Kentucky Derbys.
Jiffy,
You cited that Publisher doesn’t have a big win to his credit. Are you aware that the colt is still maiden?
Yes, I thought so but I didn’t have time to check it to be positive so I waffled by putting the word “big” in there. He doesn’t have any big wins because he doesn’t have any wins, but everything I said was said with that in mind. I still see him as a horse to watch.
Baeza will need a 2nd, in SA Derby—maybe a Belmont horse?….
Maybe. I don’t know about a mile and a half, but his brother Dornoch did it. If Baeza could win the Preakness, it would give his mother’s offspring wins in all three Triple Crown races. I’d like that.
For a broodmare to get a son to 3 straight Derbies would an incredible accomplishment. 2 in a row is remarkable in itself. I believe Mr. Haskin noted it in one of the columns.
I was sorry to read just now that Seeking the Soul has died of complications from colic at age 12. Gone too soon!
Arlington fan: Poor Seeking the Soul. He is surely gone too soon.
Yes Terri, my thought are with STS.
I looked at Cornucopian after his Oaklawn maiden win…look like he had a little “blip”, after his return work—alarge gap to his following work, then a seven day work—so his last two works were good, including one vs Barnes, where he looked good, but starting a career this late—he needs everything to go perfect, and there’s that blip—and zero two turns…and outside draw…not for me–even if he wins I don’t like him for The Derby….speaking of 6fur debut maiden winners—I wonder what happened to Hymn, who impressed me earlier at Oaklawn….
(Well OK I see he ran 2nd, a month later at Oaklawn…nice colt)..
Thanks for all the information you provide from California, Matthew. I wish trainers would give talented colts the time to develop the way Flightline was given time.
John Hancock probably would have won the Virginia Derby but the Louisiana Derby was a step too far, too soon. Perhaps that bad decision will have better consequences.
Now we have Bob Baffert sending Cornucopian to the Arkansas Derby after a minor sprint. The colt might win but how long will he last.
Wouldn’t it be amusing should Madaket Road end up as Baffert’s only Grade 1 winning male colt going into the Kentucky Derby in May.
Flightline had issues.
Flightlune had small issues…no tendons….I HAD ISSUES—with the six race career! All off layoffs and all tremendous performances….I wanted to see more!!!!!
The Bill is a grad 1 winner
The BULL is a grad 1 winner
I meant to say Grade 1 winners as a 3 year old. I have a rotten flu at present.
Yet you’re able to post.
Lol, so the flu stops you from posting. Lol.
Why are Coal Battle and Speed King carrying 124 and the rest 121? I don’t understand the weight assignments.
Allowances for nonstakes winners.
Andrea, I’ve always found it ridiculous as well. It should be weight for age as they are all competing for points to get in to the starting line up and the Arkansas Derby is a Grade 1 race.
Agree!..
The name Enterdadragon made me remember an uneasy moment in my high school life. It was my freshman year at a Catholic school. In my very first class of religion the priest teaching it asked about our role models. The ones who raised their hands wanted to be like some movie and TV heroes or even like some supermodels of the time.
I had just watched the movie “Enter the Dragon” and I said that I admired Bruce Lee. After all. the martial arts master portrayed a strong (very human) hero who fought the bad guys and their corrupted ways.
The teacher, after hearing the ones daring to speak, said that it was painful and sad that no one wanted to be like Jesus …. oops! We were taken aback and felt a gigantic slab of shame crushing us from the sky… the only pupils able to keep their heads lifted at that very moment were the ones that did not answer the question. Their facial expression saying “You should have kept quite … you fools!”. There is always people like that; but we all learned our lesson that day.
More about Enterdadragon later … after I wash my ageless embarrassment in front of padre Angel Cacheda with the waters of humility…
Nelson, I never went to Catholic school, but it sounds like the priest set the whole class up with that question. . It could have been a teaching moment, but he made it an embarrassing one for those brave enough to answer.
Indeed Ms Blacktype … He was right to make very clear what the religion class was about …
Anyway, my days at the San Antonio de Padua school were very gratiftying to say the least…
Hey Nelson
I can relate to your experience in your religion class, I had a similar one.
In my senior year, I attended an all-boys Catholic school in Los Angeles (St. John Vianney), class of 1957. Obviously, a class in religion was mandatory, and I recall one class in particular. The priest assigned the class to submit a typed manuscript detailing why the Catholic religion was the “True Religion”. I raised my hand and asked, “what if I’m not sure if the Catholic religion is the “True Religion”. Needless to say, I was racked over the coals for asking that question, and had to do some fast talking to avoid suspension.
On a side note, the senior class was composed of only 42 boys, one of which was the son of former heavyweight champion Primo Carnera. His name was Umberto (Mike) Carnera, who went to become the Kansas City Chiefs team doctor, several years ago.
Small world. I went to Daniel Murphy at 3rd St, a block west of La Brea. As I’m sure you know, St. John Vianney became Daniel Murphy. I’m a little younger than you. I left California in 2015. Five years in Nevada and now five years in Florida.
My memory of High School was the beatings. Father Keiffer had 2 belts that he liked to use. One thick and one very thin. I didn’t get hit as often as most, but I can testify that the thin belt stung like heck. It wasn’t the whacks that got you. It was the humiliation of being brought up in front of the class and being told to “assume the position”.
Yes indeed, TommyMcD, it is a small world. And yes, I’m aware of the name change. I don’t recall witnessing any beatings when I attended the school or seeing any belts. The “Prefect of Discipline” (Father Cavalli) kept all the boys in line just by looking at them.
Good luck down the road, Tommy.
Seems like we have a lot in common here … I wanted to tell the priest that “perhaps Jesus should make more movies” but I kept quiet avoiding admonishing and threatening eyes …
Nelson, I remember those days as a young teenager. The TV series “Kung Fu” with David Carradine and later the very cheesy disco song “Kung Fu Fighting.” All the young guys jumping in the air attacking each other. The old 60s Japanese TV series “The Samurai” was popular as well – jumping from large heights and pretending to spray sharp star like darts at each other or slicing each other with imaginary swords.
Bruce Lee movies were more believable than those Kung Fu movies with flying fighters, and fantastical choreography.
It seems like every teenager in the world has at some point “consumed” Kung Fu movies.
Nelson, both Bruce and his son Brandon are buried not more than 20 miles where I live….over looking Lake Washington. And Jimi Hendrix is buried not more than 12 miles from me.
And either have risen from the grave.
but “The Wind Cries Mary”…
Too funny and true. The guilt stick was always a favorite tool of too many teachers in the Catholic schools. Luckily for me, I ran into some pretty enlightened teachers at my Catholic high school who made us consider other points of view. Of course this was in our senior year when the grip of authority was beginning to erode. Existentialism was on the table and I read Viktor Frankl’s Man’s Search for Meaning. A great read for anyone especially for those trying to understand the suffering in this world. And for the record Nelson, your choice of Bruce Lee wasn’t so bad. Bruce’s grandfather was a Catholic but I’m sure your teacher had no idea of this.
Unless I missed something Instant Replay is not nominated to the Triple Crown races
You are right Instant Reply is not nominated to the TC series…
There are still late noms.
A measly $6k fee until April 7.
Thanks Steve. Yep, a lot of must-see tv this weekend. Not going to predict but sit back and enjoy. Gotta order more popcorn, though. As usual, there will be several human interest and heart-warming stories leading up to the Kentucky Derby. And of course, there will the ‘David versus Goliath’ narrative, the ‘close but no cigar’ tales, and then you have the person that ‘wins everything but this race’ story.
So speaking of cigar, you got Bill Mott wanting to win this race for the first time on the racetrack. He has a horse, Sovereignty, that perhaps has the points to get in now, but an owner, Godolphin (His Highness Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al Maktoum) who has won just about every major race outside the US but never the KD.
Of course, how can you forget Chad Brown, who was close last year with Sierra Leone, but no cigar. Still looking for #1.
Steve Asmussen, another who ‘wins everything but this race’ is still looking for his first win. Asmussen, who nearly has as many wins as Irad Ortiz, Jr. and John Velaquez have won races combined.
Least but not last is The Coach-D. Wayne Lukas-probably looking for that one last Derby win before he rides off in the sunset.
But opps, you now have Baffert, wo probably won’t be satisfied with just a win (sarcasm, of course) but looking for whole enchilada-a win, place and show-the entire trifecta to make up for the three years lost in one whole swope.
PS-welcome back baseball. Welcome back.
Having only one 6f race goes against all principals, but Cornucopiann is dead fit and looks to be much faster than all these horses so it wouldnt surprise me at all if he won, even in a romp. I just hope theyre not asking too much of him in the long run
I believe Taiba was put in a similar situation. He blasted a field of overmatched maidens….BB fans lost their minds :-)….followed that up with a convincing win in the SA Derby….then was thrown to the wolves in the KD and ran a very poor race.
His career lasted 8 races with a terrible showing in his final start.
Taiba was a good horse, he was up for 3 yo of the year, lost to Epicenter, some thought he should have won. You can’t judge a horse on how they did at the Saudi Cup. White Abarrio flubbed it and has come back to win. Taiba was sent to stud with a good fee due to his Gun Runner pedigree.
I like Cornucopian, hope he does well but Coal Battle to win.
Good points Zany. Viewed this movie before.
Dang, went from a non prediction to a Cornucopian bandwagon to possible be put into a BB fanbase that has lost their minds…did anyone actually read my comments? Even with the sarcasm?
Eek Manny Franco on Sovereignty
Steve
“Eek”?
Please clarify.
Thanks.
Not sure he fits this horse. Mainly a grass rider of .mostly grade 2 and 3 races and sprinter/miler types. Only top class dirt horse he’s won major stakes on was Tiz the Law, a horse with tactical speed, in the Travers and Florida Derby. Belmont was a one turn 1 1/8 mile race. I’m. not saying he can’t win just have never seen him win on a horse like this. He’s an aggressive rider
He won on Immersive, from midpack at the BC Juv. Fillies last year.
That really has nothing to do with my comment. It was about about winning with classic type colts not 2yo fillies
Thanks for the reply, Steve.
Your take on Franco, is interesting, to say the least. Evidently, Bill Mott must have confidence in his riding abilities, or he would have gone elsewhere with other available riders out there. Time will tell if Franco was the right choice.
Steve
With respect to Manny Franco’s statical record, over the past 2 1/2 years, it’s not that bad, IMO.
In 2025, he’s currently 6th in jockey standings, with 23% wins/64% in the money, and $3.5 million in purse money.
In 2024, he was ranked 7th, with 19% wins/52% in the money, and $18 million in purse money.
In 2023, he was ranked 9th, with 20% wins/50% in the money, and $17.7 million in purse money.
Based on Manny Franco’s stats over the past three years, it appears he can hold his own against some of the top Jockeys out there. Just my opinion.
You asked what my eek meant. It had nothing to do with his stats. I know hes a good rider, I just dont know if he fits this horse. Obviously I hope he does. Mott does and thats all that matters. I take back my eek. lol
Steve
No need to “take back eek”, I’m sure by now, I always respect your opinion. You’ve probably forgotten more than I’ll ever know about the sport of horse racing.
Peace, Steve.
Oh. I thought you were including “Eek” because it’s Manny’s given name. But seriously…Franco is competent enough to give Sovereignty a decent ride in the Florida Derby. A good effort will do. We’ve had four straight KD winners who lost their last prep.
Too late to take it back, I’ve already echoed it. He wouldn’t be my first pick for this assignment.
He did all he could with Hit Show two years ago who has similar running style. Would have preferred Dettori but they could have done far worse than Manny.
I just read that at the blood-horse website, it surprised me, Steve. Can we expect Sovereignty trying a new tack? Lol.
Will the Mott instruction be overriden by Manny’s proclivities. Ha ha
I sure hope not
Never do I question anything Bill does regarding racing.
Brad Cox trusted Franco to guide Hit Show in the Whiters, Wood Memorial, the Derby and the Belmont… that piece in his resume might have helped his case with Sovereignty…
Anyway, I trust Bill Mott on this one and Many Franco should be talking to Junior Alvarado on how to best ride the Godolphin ace…
Wonder if Mott can get Eddie Delahoussaye out of retirement???
How about Frankie Detori or Mike Smith?
Neoequos, by Neolithic, out of a Birdstone mare, appears to be a live longshot in the Florida Derby, Birdstone sired a couple of outstanding routers, in Mine That Bird and Summer Bird. On March 16th, Neoequos fired a bullet 5-furlong work, in 58.90 and followed that up with an easy 4-furlong work in 50.24. His trainer, Saffie Joseph Jr. is one of the leading trainers at GP, in which case, Neoequos should not be taken lightly, IMO.
Obviously, Sovereignty is the horse to beat, with serious consideration given to Disruptor. Madaket Road and Tappan Street.
Sovereignty has already earned enough points to secure a spot in the KD starting gate, so will Bill Mott instruct the rider (yet to be determined) to go all out for the win?
I suspect the powers that be at Godolphin would like to earn the winner’s share of that $1.0 million dollar purse, and prestige of having a Grade One winner, down the road, in the breeding shed.
That said, I’ll key Sovereignty on top, with Neoequos, Disruptor, Madaket Road and Tappan Street underneath in the 2nd, 3rd and 4th slots.
That is: 10/ 1,4,8,9/ 1,4,8,9/ 1,4,8,9. ($4.00 superfecta p/w)
Safe trips to all.
White Abarrio is entered in Saturday’s Ghostzapper at Gulfstream against what looks like an overmatched field. At least on paper. And from the looks of him lately. White Abarrio is 7 for 9 at Gulfstream and is coming off the second best BSF(109) of his career earned in his rather easy win in the Pegasus. He beat Locked by over six lengths in the Pegasus. Locked romped in the Big Cap at Santa Anita in his next start. I figure that Locked would be 2-5 against this Ghostzapper field. How low will White Abarrio go? 1-9?
White Abarrio IS a 6-year-old now and is coming back fairly quickly off that big number. Still, it’s hard to make a case for any of the others. The filly, Power Squeeze, is entered to try White Abarrio again after finishing 8th at 55-1 odds, eleven lengths behind White Abarrio in the Pegasus. Yeah, and I’m hoping to hit Powerball this week. Todd Pletcher will send out Tuscan Sky who can run a big one at times along with some clunkers at other times. In fact, he is coming off a couple of clunkers in his last 2 races. Counter Point might offer an explanation about that.
But it is a horse race and anything can happen. What are you going to do with 1-9?
If White Abarrio does find a way to lose, there should be some sort on an investigation.
Looks like a developing “bridge-jumper” situation. Somebody better call Belinda and advise her to cancel “Show-betting” for the 2025 Ghostzapper. If she doesn’t, that could be the bet. Bet $2 on each of the other six horses to show. A total of $12. The most you can lose is $8 and you could turn your $12 into about a $100.
I’ve seen things happen.
A lot of words about a bad race.
I find it rather strange that a racetrack names a race after a horse who never raced there.
Maybe he had a winter home in Palm Beach.
LOL. Good one.
Ghostzapper was bred and owned by Frank Stronach, The Stronach Group own Gulfstream Park.
Yep. And he owned bred Awesome Again. There’s the Awesome Again Stake at SA and he never raced in Arcadia.
I don’t understand why they are doing this to Power Squeeze, and I don’t like it. She is a really good filly who has potential for more, and I like her a lot. But she didn’t hold her own in the Pegasus! I am afraid that they’ll get her heart broken, or worse. (Watch me have to eat this comment… but I still won’t have liked the approach!)
Scenario SA Derby….
If Citizen Bull is headed off by Journalism in the straight run does M. Garcia ride out Citizen Bull to the finishing non exerted thereby allowing Barnes to finish second and qualify for a Derby start.
Really 1 and 1A don’t have those saddle clothes but I’m wondering how this race finishes…
If Journalism soundly beats CB and Barnes, then my opinion is that both of the latter are off of the top 12 or near the bottom. Seems to me that the Curlin influence is a much bigger predictor than Into Mischief. Never mind the messing with the order for the sake of KD points. Who in the world would throw a race?
I’m not saying that anyone throw a race – especially a G1 but if Citizen Bull is headed in the straight, knowing that he has qualified for the KDerby what incentive is there for Baffert’s team to kill him in the straight when there is anudder team member that may also have the possibility of starting in a Classic…
Not all G1s are the same 😉
LOL- CB and Barnes are legitimate top notch threats. 2 year old champ and a horse in 3rd career start a BSF of 105. That is crazy talk dropping them out of top 12
Barnes can’t get 10f.
Probably but let’s see what happens in 2 weeks. Uber talented colt but might have distance limitations, even though a 105 beyer fort time route of ground is impressive.
Let’s see how the come home. If any of them run a final 3/8th in around 37.6 or less or the final panel in 12.8 or less without losing much ground, then will be a Derby contender regardless of order. I won’t downgrade any hitting that mark provided they don’t give up a couple lengths or less to the winner. I tend to toss most horses that don’t meet that threshold. Baffert has had a few SA Derby horses wearing roses after defeat. I’m more curious to see how Bob paces those two out of the gate. One would assume he would want to rate one or the other yet they’re both looking like speedsters in the morning. I’ll speculate Barnes gets sent and Bull rates unless the other is slow out of the gate.
Steve, I’ll be shocked if you are correct that Barnes goes to SA Derby. Barnes needs point and he is most likely not going to finish better than 3rd in that race. Unless Baffert will use him to soften up Journalism I don’t see why he would pit Citizen Bull against him.
He told .me he was running so if he doesn’t there is nothing I can do about it. I only go by what they tell me.
Agreed.
Thanks you good info
Looks like we have the new Tiztastic stats from the Lousianna Derby. 99 Equibase and Beyer of 95 all from Blood Horse article. It surely looks to me like the increased distance made a big difference. All the more reason to assume that the KD will be the same or better. Mike Curry puts him in the top three for the KD. I would concur with that and then followup that he will win the Belmont if he stays healthy. He looks like a pretty tough horse given his history. Some trainers must belief that their horses are too fragile to duke it out with the competition.
I agree the distance was a factor for him in the Louisiana Derby and have been looking forward to him in the Belmont with all that Tapit.
If Journalism doesn’t bounce like I think he will, he will be considered a super horse. The SA Derby will easily be the best prep by competition. Surprised Barnes didn’t go to the wood finding easier competition.
No he wont….Chrome beat Bob by 8 length, in real fast time in San Felioe…hand ridden in SA Derby hand ridden in Kentucky Derby—and HE wasn’t a super horse! Journalism is very good! If Mike can keep him right I think he wins The Derby–“super” is reserved for another level….but J does inspire…
The ultimate goal is winning the KD. Bounce or no bounce, the SA Derby is a gateway to the big dance.
He needs a good effort, a top 3 finish and to come back healthy. McCarthy has done this a few times. I am certain he knows what Journalism is capable of.
That is my point, I don’t think Journalism is fully cranked for the SA derby. If he happens to win the SA derby not fully cranked, i believe he will win the KD as long as he gets a troubled free trip.
The 9 f. preps will help establish if these horses can get 10 f., but even then, there may be some doubt until the big day. I wouldn’t assume they can get it based on pedigree, because the way the dam’s genes mix with the sire’s is unique to each individual, even full siblings.
You should worry more about Barnes Jeff. Hate to break it to you, Journalism isn’t going to bounce. Wishful thinking, lol.
The race goes thru Journalism. The big question is if he will or will not bounce.
We’ll see.
Junior Alvarado is injured and is off his mounts for a few weeks. That leaves an open saddle for Sovereignty. I’m hoping Dettori gets the mount. The horse has one of the nicest late kicks in the crop and will be tough to hold off regardless of pilot. The only other horse that I’m eyeballing there is Disruptor, Pletcher’s version of Cornucopian. I like a Gun Runner colt but am a little skeptical of one going 9F out of a Speightstown mare. Pletcher has won 7 of the last 11 renewals and I wouldn’t be shocked if he pulls a theft here.
Frankie Dettori would be a terrific replacement rider for Sovereignty. Dettori will be in town and without a mount in the Florida Derby. A veteran presence would be best.
OK! I just got in.
I checked the KD Leaderboard, and there are 7 All Others from Pool#3 in the top 20. From 21 to 26 are also occupied by All Others from pool#3. My $200 could cover 1/2 the field.
Tracking All Other to determine how many are likely to be starters, is the fun associated with the wager. Fun is all I am likely to enjoy as none seem to be a likely KD winner and consequently, I will not enjoy a ROI.
It is prudent to maintain an open mind in a race of glorious uncertainties. But it is said that those that like in hope will die in despair.
American trainers have some tendencies that make them appear irresponsible an uninformed regarding the psychology of the equine athletes under their keep and care.
Arrogate and American Pharoah made their debut with blinkers. Arrogate finished 4th and AP 5th. The headgear was removed for their respective 2nd start and both won impressively. Neither sported the headgear for the remainder of their careers.
What exactly influenced HOF trainer BB to use the headgear for the colts’ debut remains unknown. But it appears no lesson were learnt from the use of the headgear on two horses that became household names for thoroughbred lovers.
A horse’s eye is equally important as its legs. A Horse is prey animal. Despite its size, it is constantly appealing to predators because of its body mass that can provide meals for several days, should it become a prized victim of the meat consuming hunters of the wild.
A horse eyes is equally important as its legs. The wide area a horse’s eyes cover allows it to see just about any angle from which predators are approaching. They act as an early warning mechanism.
Any decision to restrict a horse vision, irrespective how minute and even in a training and racing environment, must take into consideration the likely psychological impact. The number of horses seen in races in America sporting blinker indicates ignorance to the likely psychological impacts of the headgear. Blinkers in the solution to focus and gazing issues.
Built was seen weakening in the Risen Star. The colt chased fast internal fractions, and this depleted its energy resources leaving it one pace and tiring in the lane. How does adding blinkers address an issue that isn’t focus related? Blinkers has never been antidoting for stamina deficiency. The LA Derby being a 1/2F longer would suggest a strategy that conserve energy for later use as opposite being more forwardly. The colt weakened again, and this time finished off the board,
Vassimo a slow colt that seemed to have captured the attention of many. Any horse that wins GP’s 1turn mile in 1:39+, particularly with TP’s High-Octane, is slow and will not get faster. Moreover, the colt takes forever and day to complete a stride. hefinished a dijointed th by 12L in the RS. With blinkers added for the LA Derby he finished off the board.
Madaket Road made his debut in the G3 Bob Hope against winners and finished 2nd. Blinkers were added for his 2nd start in a MSW. He won by 1/2L returning $0.90. How much Did the blinkers help? They were retained for the Bob Lewis, and he weekend badly in the lane from a forwardly placed position. In the Rebel he enjoyed an uncontested lead and was unable to repel Coal battle in the lane. Three races with Blinkes 1/2 win and two defeats. Blinker off the FL Derby. Should be the winner.
Very interesting.
I was sorry to read about the passing of Phil Ernst. When Vermont had Green Mountain Park, he and Oliver Cutshaw were always the top two riders, and that news brings back memories of another era. My sympathy to his family and friends.
When I first engaged with horse racing as a teenager, Phil Ernst was a member of the jockey colony at Scarborough Downs in Maine, my home track. And, get this, Phil Ernst rode my first winner, a gray horse named Smokesignal. He was 8-1 and I was hooked for life. The mention of his name brings back so many fond memories of the “good old days”.
Rest in peace, Phil Ernst. You were a mainstay for New England racing in it’s heyday.
Thank you and the New England jockeys that shared your room…… Michel Lapensee,
the Spinale brothers, Joe and Vince, the Haire brothers Darrel and Tim, Carl Gambardella (Gamby), Mike Carrozella, Charles Maffeo, Rudy Baez, Joe Hampshire and so many other riders (including the ladies, Denise Boudrot, Diane Nelson Jill Jellison, Tammy Campbell, et al, that made their mark in New England.
Y’all made horseracing fun for this fan….. thank you!
A lovely post. The jockeys and other horsemen who made the lesser tracks worthwhile are so often forgotten, but they certainly shouldn’t be. I’m glad you still remember your first winner with Phil Ernst riding.
Thanks, Jiffy. Sadly, there are no thoroughbred tracks operating in New England anymore. All we have left are the memories. RIP Phil Ernst et al.
Great read Steve, again thank you for the hard work you put in each week.
I was hoping we could getperhaps a medium longshot in the Derby to win but it doesn’t look that way. The top 3 or 4 will be hard to beat.
You didn’t say much about Cornucopian, is he off the Derby trail. I know he is highly regarded but is pretty green on the race track.
What are your thoughts on him. He is so gorgeous in my eyes.
Thanks agin for your hard work & astute analysis.
Thanks Deacon. Read my com.ents on Coal Battle.
Hi Steve – Great info. and scoop that Barnes is likely to run in the SA Derby. IMO this is a mistake to run Barnes here. With only 18 points so far, Barnes will likely need a 1st or 2nd to get the points needed to get into the KY Derby. Citizen Bull and Journalism IMO will be a tall task for Barnes to beat. Im looking forward to Journalism running in the SA Derby. With Barnes and CB putting pressure on each other, this IMO sets up perfectly for Journalism, who will likely stalk from 3rd or 4th, not too far off of the pace before he makes his move. Like you said Steve, Journalism will be put in a position to win the race, even though he doesn’t need the points. I respect Sovereignty, but being a deep closer, I view Journalism as #1 because of his tactical advantage and he always seems to break great. Rooting for the winning machine Coal Battle in the ARK Derby.
I bet if Journalism was in the AK Derby he wouldn’t have such an easy time, he has no other off the pace competition in the SA Dby, so if they duel he has the advantage. That will not be true in the Kentucky Derby. And if there’s a fast pace, Sovereignty will be there, maybe with a couple other closers, they’ll find room as the front runners and non 10f. runners will fall back as has happened the last 3 years in some form or other.
Journalism breaks great and I can see him settling mid-pack in the 20 horse KY Derby. He will get the jump on the closers and will let his Pedigree do the rest. Once he gets rolling, I don’t see anyone reeling him in, he won’t be slowing down in the stretch. The longer the better for Journalism.
I don’t think any other three year old in the country could have reeled in Barnes like that, he had an easy lead, but that’s Horse Racing everyone has their opinions..
As much as I like Coal Battle, Journalism is the best three year old,in my opinion.
Agree Mike. Would absolutely love these 2 to run 1-2 in the KY Derby!
Yes.
Citizen Bull & Sovereignty are my 2 Derby picks. I also Cornucopian but I am not sure he has enough points to make the field.
Good assesments………
I wonder if the possible upside they see with Barnes is that if he runs competitively in the Santa Anita, they know he ran well already at Churchill. Also, I think Bob could be a little sentimental about this one: there’s the name, and he is out of an American Pharoah mare.
I do think Journalism is better. He certainly was a few weeks back. It will be very interesting to see what he makes of Citizen Bull, and where Barnes finds himself.
Steve, I heard back from Ali Finley regarding Keep It Easy. “He’s currently in light training at Gulfstream Park as Dale takes some time to assess the next steps. We’ll see how he progresses in the coming weeks before making any decisions on where he might run next.”
I’m sorry. Terry Finley filled me in and I forgot to I include it in KOTD. My apologies
Anything from Terry on Statesman? Still hoping we see him in the Wood. Saw he worked today, so Shug is keeping a regular schedule.
No apologies necessary my friend. It was nice of Ali to take time to respond to my inquiry. I know those guys have their hands full this time of year. It doesn’t sound like he will make any Derby Preps so I am going to assume he’s off the trail for now.
Final Gambit has become a very intriguing Derby hopeful after trouncing the Jeff Ruby field last Saturday. One thing going for him is his elite connection. They certainly chose the right race for Final Gambit to show all his potential.
It is rather exceptional for any horse to run the last 3/8’s in 36.21 with the last 1/16 in 5.98. You may say it is easier on the Tapeta; but Final Gambit’s last 3 furlongs were faster than those of other notable winners of the Jeff Ruby (i.e. Somelikeithotbrown, Tiz the Bomb and Two Phil’s).
What makes Final Gambit most fascinating is that his sire, Not This Time, has proven to be one of the most versatile sires in America. The son of Giant’s Causeway has sired exceptional speed horses on turf (Cogburn, Arzak) and dirt (Sibelius), the dirt marathorner Next, 10-furlong horses on dirt (i.e. champion Epicenter, Simplification), brilliant turf miler/stayers (like three-time Grade One winner Up To The Mark). Gigante is equally good on dirt and turf.
Also, in this crop there are Magnitude and Disco Time confirming that Not This Time is a very reliable producer of superior dirt runners.
Final Gambit might have benefitted from running in his home track but it could also possible he has matured into a wonder horse … on any surface. As Steve said, not even his trainer knows the answer to that conundrum.
Good info and insight, Nelson. I read today that FG’s Brisnet figure was 100. He cannot be ignored.
Thanks Tony … and Thanks for the information … I was curious to see his Brisnet SF … that is a 24 point jump w.r.t. to his last (76) at a mile at Turfway’s Tapeta.
That is why I said last week that the assigned speed ratings for his past performances were rather deceiving….
It comes to prove that nothing can substitute analyzing replays and workouts on top of recognizing the weight of racing powerhouses (e.g. Juddmonte and Brad Cox).
I believe Steve took those factors into account when he asked last week: “Is Brad Cox about to unleash a Juddmonte horse no one knows about?”
Yes indeed, Nelson. Notice that Juddmonte/Cox knew that points were needed, so they kept FG on synthetic. On the other hand, Godolphin/Harty knew that points were needed, yet put Poster on a surface he’d never raced on. BTW, the Brisnet figure for FG was 101. Tiztastic earned a 100.
East Avenue looks to have a very difficult task to make the Derby with Chancer McPatrick, Burnham Square, Owen Almighty, River Thames, and possibly Rodriguez
(a Steve Haskin scoop) lining up to face him.
If East Avenue doesn’t make it into the Derby, I’ll think of all the chances that he missed.
He continues to train well. Maybe he’s what we used to call “a morning glory”. Nah. I’m convinced that there is a very good horse there. Steve Haskin refers to his baffling loss in the Risen Star, but he just ran into a freakish performance by Magnitude IMO.
If he can beat the likely crew that he will face at Keeneland, he will put himself back in the Derby picture as a contender. A second-place finish in Lexington would get him into the Derby. I still have hope.
I’m looking forward to the Bluegrass more than any other race. If East Ave does his thing, we could be looking at the showdown in the KD that didn’t happen in the BCJ.
Is BB using Madaket Road to test the waters? First to Arkansas where he showed that those Hot Springs runners might not be all that. Now, to Florida to see how Sovereignty compares. I see Madaket Road as a BB third stringer. No offense. Steve Haskin refers to him as a fourth stringer. Ouch!
BB feels confident enough to send Cornucopian to Arkansas after seeing Madaket Road give Coal Battle a good test.
Absolutely….BB is doing that
If Cornucopian wins the Derby off of just two starts, I’ll probably quit the sport. Just kidding. I love playing the races too much. I’d write it off as just one of those things. Unexplainable thing that is.
Just don’t spend too much time analyzing the Derby until all the big preps are done. The 9+ panel events tend to separate the contenders from pretenders. And even then, don’t get tunnel vision. We’ve recently seen Forte get scratched late and Rich Strike draw in at the last second.
I’ve always believed that most of us would do just as well by waiting for the entries/post positions on Derby Week to commence serious handicapping. All we need are the PPs and video for the final two preps along with a grasp of Derby history. However, the various KDFWs are a whole other matter!
That is to say, “the PPs and video for each runner’s final two preps.”
The KDFW exacta pools are the way to go, at least with the early pools. Simply take a few horses you like over and under the All Others option. If your horse makes the gate, you often have 10-15 exacta combinations in the bank for the price of one, and your horse doesn’t even need to hit the board to collect; just be the top listed performer in that pool. I did that with Citizen Bull in the first few pools and there’s only going to be five or so names from Pool 1 in the gate, granted two of them are Sovereignty and Tiztasic. Pretty similar for Pool 2 but with the addition of Barnes and Journalism. If CB is in the gate, then I have a decent chance at hitting my Pool 1 play and still in the hunt for Pool 2. My only oops playing those this year was making win bets on Barnes, Citizen Bull, Journalism, Sovereignty, and All in Pool 4 but not using those horses over and under the All where it’s looking like 8 or more starters will come from the All in that pool. I played catch up in Pool 5 but likely get fewer “freebies”.
Too late. I have a bunch of win bets in the KDFW. 🤓
The comment for Coal Battle this week could be the theme for a great movie about the triumph of underdogs, especially if the son of Coal Front sustains his winning ways against the best runners this season. It would be a fine drama at the level of blockbusters like Cinderella Man, Rocky, Moneyball, and Karate Kid among other Sports related films with similar storylines.
The movie makers always like to feature a villain and could very well repeat the exaggerated way they characterized John Campo in Secretariat the movie, and a shaddy Bob Baffert in the Mine That Bird movie (50 to 1).
Baffert will be the bad guy again with his pompous army of aristocratic horses pitted against Coal Battle only to be crushed one by one by the little hero…
So, if Coal Battle beats Cornucopian soundly in winning the Arkansas Derby it would be the prelude of one of the finest underdog stories this Century.
Steve will have to hire an agent to negotiate the pay for the script of “The Cool Battle of Coal Battle” the movie…!
Bob Baffert made an astute move with Madaket Road racing in the Florida Derby. His sire, Quality Road, loved Gulfstream Park. QR’s other son, City of Light, did well at Gulfstream Park and won the Pegasus. Quality Road broke the track record at Gulfstream Park in the Donn Handicap which is now the Pegasus. That was after he lost it and was scratched in the 2009 Breeders Cup Classic (won by Zenyatta).
Couple interesting plays Terri for this race.
Yes Terri, not to forget that Madaket Road’s dam Frolic’s Dream was a Grade 2 winner at Gulfstream Park as well which supports your theory.
Wouldn’t that be a turn up for the books if Madaket Road was to become the only Group 1 winner for Bob Baffert prior to the Kentucky Derby. You just love horse racing there are no certainties.
That is, Grade 1 not Group 1 winner. Crossing continents all the time you translate various terms subconsciously. Ha ha
Hi Steve
Prior to the running of the Louisiana Derby, I thought the race would set up nicely for Instant Replay’s running style, rating off the pace. Unfortunately, he was dead last through 3/4’s of the race, with a ton of ground to make up to get into contention in the late going. However, I was encouraged by the way he closed for 3rd nearing the wire.
Hopefully, Cox will enter Instant Replay in the Lexington, with 20 points going to the winner. In the event he should win the Lexington, that would give him 45 points, and a likely spot in the Derby starting gate.
In any case, I believe Instant Replay has a bright future moving forward.
With respect to the Florida Derby, it will be interesting to see who Bill Mott will select to replace injured rider Junior Alvarado aboard Sovereignty. If Sovereignty runs his race, does it matter who the rider is?
Unless Cornucopian is a freak, the Arkansas Derby should be a cake walk for Coal Battle.
Thanks for another insightful analysis on your Derby prospects at this juncture on the Derby trail.
Want Coal Battle to prevail.
I was hoping to see River Thames in Fla Derby…..I think Cornucopian is a big “bet against”, on Sat! I am looking for a big effort from Sandman!..
Why is Coal Battle 3rd choice on the ML? Anyone have an opinion on that?
It doesn’t make much sense to me, but if he is 3rd choice at post time, would definitely be worth a bet imo…
Mental defect?
My first thought after the Jeff Ruby Steaks was also that Final Gambit reminded me of Animal Kingdom. I texted a friend a week before the 2011 Derby and said that I love Animal Kingdom. He texted back a one word reply, “Loser.” I’ve reminded him about that several times since then.
What a delightful surprise to find the Week 9 column up just after my rather frantic afternoon ended. Steve, you are aceing (acing?) part-time work! I like how selective you were with your Top 12, and the case you made for all these horses — even the one you didn’t rank, Final Gambit. Is Cox moving him to Lexington to TRAIN, or to run in the Lexington? He doesn’t need the points and I’m guessing the former. Ditto your inference that there’s nowhere else for Barnes to go but the Santa Anita Derby and his home track. I’ve been trying to figure that out myself using my crystal ball.
I just watched replays and think Final Gambit is the more impressive of the two winning closers, he had energy to spare at the end, it was a shorter race but still. He needs to mature to turn that talent into a winning career. Cox’ best male horses have been grey, so he’s in good company.
Barnes was outworked by Rodriguez yesterday. Also, I noticed a slight left foreleg paddling. BB must of called an audible after this work by sending Cornucopian to the Arkansas Derby.
Not only does he have to face Journalism again, now he has to contend with his stablemate who seems to relish beating up on the rest of the BB crew.
Not sure Barnes wants ten panels.
Barnes clocked five panels in a minute flat and was 6/92 on the day. Rodriguez clocked six panels in 1:13.2 being 1/2. Not sure how you can directly compare those. Barnes is still Baffert’s fastest 3YO around two turns until proven otherwise. It’s worth noting Baffert Derby winners/finish line cross firsters Silver Charm, Real Quiet, and Medina Spirit all lost final prep. The problem for Baffert this year is there appears to be no shortage of speed dialed up for the Derby and that includes his entire troupe of contenders. It shouldn’t be as easy to walk the dog like Justify did.
The only strategy he mostly employs is going to the front and hopefully keep going.
Yes. Real Quiet was one exception where the horse would stalk then start making the move around the 3/4 pole. Haskin seems to appreciate that style the most after reading him here and on Blood Horse for a very long time. That was the winning style outside of War Emblem in 2002, then many renewals have been glorified merry-go-rounds since 2015.
Will the injury to Junior Alvarado affect Sovereignty on Saturday? He’s one of my favorite riders and I love him on Sovereignty. But he will be out for 3 weeks. Does Bill Mott scratch Sovereignty? Probably not. He doesn’t need a win. Just a decent run.
Who do they get as a replacement rider? Paco Lopez is available. I don’t remember him ever riding for Mott. Good horse. The rider may not matter.
I’ve never heard if a trainer scratching a horse because of a jockey injury….if horse is ready he will go!
Actually, Paco Lopez is the last jockey that I want to see on Sovereignty. If Lopez gets mad at the horse, I’d hate to see him whip the daylights out of him like he did to the horse that got him suspended (he can apologize, but I’ll always remember. Just like Michael Vick).
No, I’ve never seen a horse scratched because of a jockey injury a week before the race. I was just talking crazy with the news of something amiss with my probable Derby horse.
Julien Leparoux might be a good replacement. I’ve seen him ride for Mott before. Leparoux is patient and likes to do his best running late. He’s probably tied up elsewhere on Saturday though.
Most of the top riders do have mounts in either the Florida Derby or the Arkansas Derby. Florent Geroux, Frankie Dettori, and Dylan Davis don’t but they too might have commitments elsewhere. It’s hard to believe that a horse like Sovereignty would have difficulty finding a rider, but the possibilities are somewhat limited.
Jose Ortiz might be available after the way Built ran…
Jose Ortiz would be a great choice. But he has some pretty good mounts at Oaklawn on Saturday. Quietside, Sandman, and quite a few others. Some people see Quietside as the horse that can take down Good Cheer in the Kentucky Oaks.
I forgot about Sandman…
Good point Tommy… I would use Joe Bravo if he is available on site…
Reylu Gutierrez has done an excellent job piloting of Flood Zone … not sure if he will be around this Saturday.
Bill Mott has given mounts to Miguel Angel Vasquez … albeit for maiden races.
Anyway, there could be a top jockey available even having to travel from another track that day… we shall see.
Hi Steve, Another fine grouping you have compiled for your fans! I am very pleased to read your nice comments about oner of my favorites, Chunk of Gold. Would be interested in knowing his Thorograph pattern when you get it. Also curious on your opinion of Instant Replays chances of making the Derby. I’m aware he on has 25 points
but I thought his move in the La. Derby was eye catching. Would his connections possibly try the Lexington? Is his Thorograph pattern anything to get excited about?
Appreciate your comments. Many thanks, JB.
Would the Lexington be enough? Maybe.
I reckon 45 points would be right on the border….
Maybe connections should plan for a race like the Belmont.
His numbers will be in next. Hope to get them Wednesday or Thursday
In a previous post I stated that I was in no dilemma regarding whether Sovereignty or Journalism should be ranked #1. I used several factors.
I consider the most significant of those factors to be the maiden breaker for both colts.
Journalism was under strong urging to defeat a modest group of opponents in a MSW. Whereas Sovereignty maiden breaker was in the Street Sense (G3). His victory was achieved over Sandman (MSW winner) and Tiztastic (MSW & listed Stakes winner)
The properly understand the significance of the two maiden breakers. The starting status of the two colt merits highlighting. Journalism was the 3rd choice in his MSW. As maiden Sovereignty was the 1/2 favorite against winner and won by 5L under a hand ride.
In week #9 Sandman graded stakes placed, is ranked at #12. Tiztastic now a graded stakes winner is ranked at #9. None of the maidens that Journalism defeated have ever been ranked. One colt easily defeated 2 quality opponents and the other defeated a modest group in a workman life fashion. Which of the two exhibited the superior talent? it is blatantly obvious.
Sovereignty has raced in 3 states and won in 2. He is therefore an experienced shipper. His high knee action isn’t so apparent at CD, the venue of his most impressive victory. This suggest the surface is accommodating his stride mechanics.
Tiztactic’s win in the LA Derby flatters Sovereignty. The dispels the notion that he and Journalism are on the same level.
Steve:
Great overview of where we are this far away from the Derby. The next 2 weekends should answer a lot of questions.
I am glad you mentioned Charismatic in your write-up of American Promise: He was my ‘gateway-drug’ into horse race handicapping and wagering. I had $50 on him to win the Derby after his Lexington performance, and all my in-the-know friends with much more experience than I had at the time, told me he was very unlikely to win! The only problem was my $50 win bet was placed with a bookie and win odds were capped, so I was ecstatic with the win, but let down at the payout! Who would have thought the exact same Charismatic-Menifee exacta would occur in the Preakeness too!
I watched Lukas graze Charismatic every afternoon and I had never heard him rave about how good a horse was doing and looking more than he raved about Charismatic. There also were so many great back stories with him and I was there and wrote about them in my lead story for Blood Horse. Still one of my favorite Derby stories
POSTER:
This hard tying Munnings colt was dropped from the 12. It is understandable as ranked horses have to perform at an acceptable level to retain their rankings.
I view Poster differently than most. The Jeff Ruby was Poster’s 5th start and a11 have been at a different venue over 3 different surfaces i.e., turf, dirt and AW. To be only beaten 4 1/2L at yet another venue and on new surface, must be considered an extremely favorable performance. Why? The colt’s pedigree, top and bottom is dirt to its 5th generation.
His two dirt races resulted in a win and 2 1/2L 3rd place finish in on a speed bias surface in which a NSR was established. Despite training on the AW surface. Racing on the surface is quite different as the demands are different. The colt won on turf twice largely due to his ability and the lack of router races on dirt at the time. Despite Curlin’s brilliance he could handle the AW surface, likewise turf.
The winner of the Jeff ruby was making his 3rd start at Turfway Park. In his first he was beaten by 44/1 shot in slow 1:39+ over a mile. His dam line from the 3rd generation has a strong turf influence. The 2nd and 3rd place finishers also have strong turf influence in their respective pedigree.
Is Poster still in consideration for the KD? Wiil, he run even run if he draws in as an alternate? That is unknow at the moment. But what is known is the time has come to stop the surface hoping and allow the colt to concentrate one surface. That should be the one best suited to its pedigree.
I have had Poster ranked higher than anyone even after his loss at Tampa, and I would have loved to see him in the Blue Grass or back at Aqueduct in the Wood instead of taking a chance on synthetic I would still give him a shot in the Derby coming .off a decent enough race, but it is way too risky to keep him ranked with only 31 points. If by some miracle he gets in the Derby with so few points then he can be re-evaluated..