2025 Kentucky Derby Recap

It’s been a long road to the Kentucky Derby with so many questions along the way, perplexing performances both good and bad, exciting newcomers who failed to move forward off their brilliant victories, and several feel-good rags to riches stories. But in the end it was all so simple, as the cream rose to the top and despite the ugly weather, gave us a great Derby that no true racing fan can complain about. ~ Steve Haskin

Blue Moon of Kentucky Finally Shinin’

By Steve Haskin

Sovereignty carries the distinctive blue colors of Godolphin Stable to victory in the 2025 Kentucky Derby.

 

As the field turned for home in the 1999 Kentucky Derby, most everyone was waiting for the three-horse onslaught from the Bob Baffert trio of Prime Timber, the filly Excellent Meeting, and most of all from his Santa Anita Derby winner and race favorite General Challenge. Racing’s newest rock star, Baffert was attempting to win his third consecutive Derby following Silver Charm and Real Quiet,

But when a 14-1 shot named Worldly Manner, wearing unfamiliar all blue silks, came charging up on the outside to pull on even terms with the leader Cat Thief, trained by D. Wayne Lukas, it looked as if the relatively new operation called Godolphin, founded by Sheikh Mohammed of Dubai in 1992, was about to win the Kentucky Derby in its very first try.

Baffert couldn’t believe it. This was the horse he had trained the year before, winning the Best Pal Stakes and Del Mar Futurity for Golden Eagle Farm, who then sold him for big bucks to Sheikh Mohammed, who was trying to make a big splash in America by winning the Kentucky Derby. At that time, it looked as if the quickest way to go about it was to purchase a proven stakes winner and prepare him in Dubai with their young trainer Saeed bin Suroor, a former policeman.

Unfortunately, Worldly Manner couldn’t sustain his apparent winning move and tired to finish seventh behind the Lukas-trained longshot Charismatic, but beaten only 4 ½ lengths. What surprised Baffert the most was the fact that Worldly Manner was making his first start of the year and was coming off an eight-month layoff after being sent to Dubai. For him to run such a big race was very encouraging for the new Godolphin team.

Sheikh Mohammed and his brothers, Sheikh Hamdan and Maktoum, had joined forces to establish an elite stable of equine stars on a worldwide scale that they named Godolphin after the Godolphin Arabian, one of the three stallions that founded the Thoroughbred. For a new operation they had to have felt confident after Worldly Manner that it would not take long for them to conquer America’s greatest race.

But that confidence likely dimmed slightly when they returned to Churchill Downs in 2000, 2001, and 2002 with little success. They tried hard to make their presence felt in 2001 by coming to Churchill Downs with boxloads of Godolphin jackets, shirts, and caps that they gave away. But that didn’t bring them the karma they hoped for when their big horse Street Cry suffered an ankle injury before the race and had to be scratched.

In fact, it would take them 26 years since Worldly Manner and growing into a global dynasty before a big strapping colt aptly named Sovereignty came along and powered his way through a sea of slop to give Godolphin its long-awaited Kentucky Derby victory.

And in doing so, Sovereignty defeated the favorite Journalism, with whom he grew up at Bridlewood Farm in Ocala, Florida, receiving their early training together (read their full story here).

For winning trainer Bill Mott and Sovereignty’s sire Into Mischief, they share a unique connection, having won the Kentucky Derby together after previously winning the race individually by disqualification. Mott’s Country House, a 65-1 shot, was placed first on the steward’s historic disqualification of Maximum Security in 2019, and Into Mischief’s son Mandaloun, a 26-1 shot, was placed first two years later on the disqualification of Medina Spirit following a positive drug test.

Perhaps the good karma Godolphin had been hoping for all these years occurred in 2022 and 2023 when the heartwarming story of their homebred Cody’s Wish, also trained by Bill Mott, and his relationship with a handicapped young man named Cody Dorman, for whom the colt was named, touched people all over the world. The colt would win back-to-back Breeders’ Cup Miles and Vox Populi Awards as the most popular horse in America, and be named Horse of the Year in 2023.

Godolphin was no longer just a powerful machine, winning major races all over the world. They now had a heart, helping to orchestrate one of the sport’s most inspirational stories. That apparently was enough for the Derby gods to reward them two years later with their long sought after Kentucky Derby victory.

And how appropriate to win it with a grandson of Bernardini, who was another major player in the growth of Godolphin in the United States.

Sheikh Mohammed had raced under the name of Darley Stable, winning the 1990 Breeders’ Cup Turf with In the Wings, trained in France by Andre Fabre. After he formed Godolphin with his brothers, he still continued to race several horses in his Darley colors who had no connection to Godolphin and its separate braintrust.

When Tom Albertrani, who had left his job as assistant trainer for Bill Mott during the reign of Cigar to work for Sheikh Mohammed and Saeed bin Suroor in Dubai, decided to return to America and open a public stable, he was given several of Sheikh Mohammed’s Darley horses to train, One of them was a homebred son of A.P. Indy, out of Grade 1 winner Cara Rafaela named Bernardini, who exploded on the scene in 2006, winning the Preakness, Travers, Jockey Club Gold Cup, and two other stakes en route to an Eclipse Award as Champion 3-year-old.

Although Bernardini had given Sheikh Mohammed his first U.S. classic victory and was a sure thing to be named champion 3-year-old, the Sheikh, feeling Albertrani deserved to keep training him, decided to continue racing the colt in his Darley colors rather than move him to their New York-based trainer at the Godolphin stable, which typically received the operation’s best horses and higher profile yearling purchases. After he suffered his first defeat in the Breeders’ Cup Classic at the hands of Sheikh Hamdan’s Invasor it was decided to retire Bernardini to Jonabell Farm in Lexington, Kentucky, which Sheikh Mohammed had purchased in 2001. In 2005, the Maktoum family consolidated its stallion operations to this location and began building an elite stallion roster, and Bernardini was the perfect stallion to help boost it.

He had good success as a stallion, siring 18 Grade or Group 1 winners, including back-to-back Travers winners Stay Thirsty and Alpha early in his career, but recently has become extremely productive as a broodmare sire. In 2012, he was bred to the Grade 1 winner and million-dollar earner Mushka, who was trained by none other than Bill Mott. Her second foal, a filly named Crowned, was purchased by Godolphin at the Keeneland September yearling sale for $1.2 million, but never made it to the races.

Crowned’s first two foals, both fillies by Into Mischief, named Jane Grey and Misintention, would win a combined one race in 15 starts for, you guessed it, Bill Mott. In 2021, Godolphin, believing third time’s a charm, bred her to Into Mischief again, and this time she produced a big good-looking colt, later to be named Sovereignty. His childhood and early training can be read in the story linked above.

When Sovereignty arrived at Mott’s barn, he had been well prepared by Joan Murphy and her team at Bridlewood Farm and Mott realized it wouldn’t take long to get him ready for racing. As Mott put it, “There was nothing not to like about him.”

Sadly, around that time, Crowned developed laminitis and had to be euthanized at the age of 11. But as Dan Pride, Godolphin’s chief operating officer in the U.S., said following the Derby, “We still have two full-sisters to the Derby winner to carry on her legacy.”

Sovereignty made his debut on August 24 at Saratoga going six furlongs, a distance way too short for such a big long-striding colt who was bred to go long. He broke well but dropped back to 10th and was still a dozen lengths back turning for home, giving himself too much to do in the stretch. He closed relentlessly but couldn’t catch the three battling leaders over a fast, speed-favoring track, but still was beaten only 3 ¼ lengths and blew by all three past the wire. The winner, Tip Top Thomas, came back to finish second in the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes.

Stretching out to a flat mile at Aqueduct, he broke sharply and was able sit right off the pace in third. In the stretch, the highly regarded Praetor, trained by Chad Brown, quickly drew off after turning for home to open up by four lengths. Sovereignty finally kicked into gear in the final furlong and was gobbling up the ground with a :12 flat final eighth, just missing by a neck, then galloping out 10 lengths in front.

The normally conservative Mott thought so highly of him after his two learning experiences and was so anxious to try him around two turns he ran him next in the Grade 3 Street Sense Stakes at 1 1/16 miles at Churchill Downs even though he was still a maiden. Sent off at odds of 7-5, he dropped back after breaking from post 9 and was last down the backstretch. Then came the explosion Mott was hoping to see. Swinging seven-wide, he went from 9th to first from the quarter pole to the eighth pole, inhaling the field with one powerful swoop under a hand ride from Junior Alvarado and then drawing off to a five-length victory geared down, while coming home in :24 flat and :06 1/5 for the final sixteenth. He again kept going past the wire and galloped out a long way as if he were just getting warmed up.

What turned out months later to be a significant part of this victory was that the second- and third-place finishers — Tiztastic and Sandman — would go on to win the Louisiana Derby and Arkansas Derby, respectively.

Up to this point, Sovereignty had done everything right regarding his lead changes, keeping a straight course, and using those long sweeping strides to blow by his opponents. Mott was looking ahead to the longer races, and with the colt having already won impressively going two turns at Churchill Downs he decided to put him away for the year and have a fresh horse for what he hoped would be a three-race Florida campaign. But he soon realized that those plans would have to be altered after the colt’s training was interrupted by a fever.

When he finally made his 3-year-old debut in the Fountain of Youth Stakes after having missed his scheduled debut and with only a few slow works under him, everyone, including Mott, felt he would not even be close to 100 percent and would need the race. But when he came charging down that shortened stretch at Gulfstream to run down the undefeated WinStar Farm colt River Thames and leaving the Holy Bull Stakes winner Burnham Square back in fourth it raised him way up to the top of the class, at least until later that afternoon when his former classmate Journalism blew by the undefeated Barnes to win the San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita, earning huge speed figures.

Again, his beaten foes, Burnham Square and River Thames would go on to finish first and third, respectively, in their next race, the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland. So Sovereignty had already beaten the Louisiana Derby, Arkansas Derby, and Blue Grass winner and had a big victory at Churchill Downs.

Although Sovereignty was then beaten by a much-improved Tappan Street in the Florida Derby, it did not diminish his stature at all. Tappan Street was a gifted horse with excellent tactical speed who just got first jump on him and might have been second choice in the Kentucky Derby if he hadn’t been injured before the race. And Sovereignty had already scored his big win when most people didn’t expect him to and he really didn’t need to win this race. Also, his regular rider Junior Alvarado had suffered a fractured shoulder and was replaced in the Florida Derby by Manny Franco, who had never ridden the colt. Mott felt it was a good prep race and very similar to his Fountain of Youth victory and would set him up to peak at Churchill Downs. Both the major speed Sheets, Thoro-Graph and Ragozin, projected a big forward move in the Kentucky Derby despite the defeat.

Mott shipped Sovereignty to Churchill Downs early to give him two works over the track, and he showed right away he was still loving the surface, breezing five furlongs in a sharp 1:00 3/5, out seven furlongs in 1:25, which was a stark contrast from his works over the deep Payson Park surface in Florida.  Not only did Mott want to win the Derby outright without any help from the stewards this time, it was just as important to give Godolphin its first Derby victory.

“It would be a real feather in my cap to give them their first win in the Kentucky Derby,” he said. “I take a lot of pride in training for them, and it’s been a privilege to be a small part of the team. We go way back training for Sheikh Mohammed when he was racing under Darley Stable before he even began Godolphin. I also take great pride in winning the first Dubai World Cup with Cigar at a time when he was just starting to build Godolphin and racing in Dubai. He has really changed the sport and has provided so many jobs all over the world.”

For his final work, which was just a maintenance drill, Mott purposely had him go slower this time and he still looked fantastic, breezing the five furlongs in an easy 1:01 4/5, but still striding out beautifully and galloping out strong. You could hear the confidence in Mott’s voice. He even was unfazed when Sovereignty drew way on the outside in post 18. “I think it’s fine,” he said. “Anything outside post 1 and 2 is fine. We have no choice in the matter and I don’t know if I would have chosen anything different.”

Derby Day, as it has been on several occasions over the last decade, was wet and miserable with the track sealed and sloppy.

All of it meant little, as Sovereignty had a dream trip despite getting clipped by the heels of Chunk of Gold right out of the gate, dropping far back under Alvarado, who was able to recover quickly from his injury after believing he had blown his chance to ride in the Derby. They got the fast pace they wanted, as well as a traffic-free trip that kept them out of trouble and in great position to follow Journalism once the favorite made his move.

On the far turn, Journalism, began passing horses on the outside and quickly closed in on the leaders. But Sovereignty had swung out and was right behind him, ready to pounce, just as he done in his previous races. Although he is a big long-striding colt who comes from the back of the track, he always turns in that same move and is always in the exact same spot turning for home. He collared Journalism after turning for home and the battle was on.

Down the stretch, the two highest graded Bridlewood Farm students  hooked up in a battle to the wire as many had hoped they would  since their big victories on March 1 on opposite coasts. Behind them and closing fast was Santa Anita Derby runner-up Baeza, who didn’t get in the field until two days before the race. But nearing the finish Sovereignty began to pull away, winning by 1 1/4 lengths, with Journalism holding off Baeza by a neck.

Despite the slop, making a long sustained run, and battling with Journalism, Sovereignty returned to his stall and cleaned out his feed tub in 20 minutes and was bright and chipper the following morning.

Watching both her star pupils, Murphy, despite Bridlewood owning part of Journalism, was just as thrilled seeing Sovereignty win. “They are the same in my heart,” she said.

But this was all about Godolphin. Their crowning achievement came two continents and an ocean apart this past weekend — on a rainy day in Kentucky and a perfectly clear day in England — winning the Kentucky Derby and the Kentucky Oaks (with the brilliant undefeated filly Good Cheer) at Churchill Downs, and the 2,000 Guineas and 1,000 Guineas at Newmarket.

Many of those connected with Godolphin over the years, had the same reaction. “It was well worth the wait,” said Jimmy Bell, former president and racing manager for Godolphin USA, who retired in 2021. “I’m so very happy for the boss, His patience, passion, and perseverance have been richly rewarded.

Eoin Harty, who was Godolphin’s first U.S. trainer and saddled their first Breeders’ Cup winner in 2001, capturing the Juvenile Fillies with Tempera, echoed Bell’s comment. “I’m so delighted,” he said. “No one deserves it more than the boss.” Harty is still winning races for Godolphin 25 years later, taking last November’s Remsen Stakes with Poster.

And then there is super stud Into Mischief, who was siring his third Kentucky Derby winner, along with Authentic and Mandaloun, as well as being the sire of Goldencents, who sired last year’s Derby winner Mystik Dan. Ned Toffey, general manager of Spendthrift Farm, where Into Mischief stands, has run out of superlatives when it comes to the stallion, and simply said, “He is incredible!”

For Godolphin, gone are the Derby failures of the past, such as losing Street Cry to injury in 2001; having their 1,2 finishers of the UAE Derby, Regal Ransom and Desert Party, floundering in the slop in 2009, finishing eighth and 14th behind 50-1 shot Mine That Bird; having to watch Thunder Snow come out of the gate like a bucking bronco and putting on an embarrassing show in front of millions of people in 2017; and seeing their one and only favorite Essential Quality come up a length short after looking like a sure winner midstretch in 2021.

What started as a dream for Sheikh Mohammed in the early ’90s has grown into an equine empire spanning across four continents, from Dubai to Europe, Australia, Japan and America, with winner’s circles all over the world drenched in Godolphin blue.

Their goal in the beginning, and even more so now, is to “do everything in our power to discover, nurture, and train the perfect horse and share that one global passion for the speed and beauty of these magnificent animals.”

Godolphin finally had made it to the Kentucky Derby winner’s circle. But for the first time the color blue was overshadowed by another color – the blanket of red roses draped over the back of Sovereignty.

 

Photo courtesy of Churchill Downs.

Racing historian, author, and award-winning retired journalist for the Daily Racing Form and The Blood-Horse, Steve Haskin was inducted into the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame’s Media Roll of Honor in 2016. Known for his racing knowledge and insightful prose, he has been an exclusive contributor to Secretariat.com since 2020.

317 Comments

  1. Michelle H on May 17, 2025 at 12:04 pm

    For those who plan to bet on Heart of Honor in the Preakness, Carlos Morales of Agentes305 got some good info from the trainer yesterday (Friday) that might be worth noting. What I took away is that this horse is not a good gate horse and can be tricky to saddle, historically. This, on top of the fact that he’s had a long journey from overseas and while he has looked good and seemed to travel ok, these little things could be the diff between him contending in the race, or being left behind. Osborne said, “Arguably he chucked a couple of races away by being the last to leave the gate [in Meydan]… He can be a bit of child in there.” When schooling in the gate Friday, “He went up on his hind legs and he had a little wrestle around. But we have to accept now that it’s probable with him. What’s important is the jump. If he reverts to the old Heart of Honor, he’s going to be left. So, hopefully he’ll jump somewhere with them and hopefully he’ll behave ok.”

    As for the saddling process, Osborne laughed when he said he’s hoping for “Calm and without incident.” He also said, “He’s one of those horses and I think that a lot of good horses are like this, you can light the fuse. And once the fuse is lit, they become wild animals. Yeah, he can be tricky enough to get the saddle on… He can misbehave and not completely throw his race away because he’s a tough character. He’s his own man.”

  2. Matthew W on May 12, 2025 at 8:22 pm

    8/5 ml…..he is going to be 4/5—

    • Davids on May 12, 2025 at 9:29 pm

      How many times does a Bob Baffert horse get post 1? It’s uncanny, I kind of expect it now, worse though, so does he no doubt.

      • Troller on May 12, 2025 at 11:18 pm

        Karma for the stunt Garcia pulled with Citizen Bull in the Derby?

        • Mike Relva on May 12, 2025 at 11:26 pm

          You bet.

  3. TommyMcD on May 12, 2025 at 6:21 pm

    Just 9 entered in the Preakness. Post positions to be drawn at 7 o’clock. If anybody is interested, it can be streamed at Preakness.com.

    Four of the nine ran on Derby weekend. Three in the Derby and Goal Oriented in another race.

    • TommyMcD on May 12, 2025 at 6:30 pm

      With them keeping Umberto Rispoli on Journalism, Johnny V will be taking the mount on the Sandman. Jose Ortiz rode Sandman in the Derby but will ride Clever Again for Steve Asmussen on Saturday.

      Possible rain in the forecast. 50/50 five days out.

  4. Matthew W on May 12, 2025 at 2:25 pm

    The Preakness matters! I’ll give you two examples….National Treasure—won The Pegasus and nearly beat Cody’s Wish—but will always be known as a Preakness Winner…..Snow Chief—the nearly black Cal bred with the ant-eatwr stride—won big races back east like Florida Derby and Oaklawn Handicap—but his Preakness victory is probably why he made the Hall of Fame, The Preakness is still important because it’s a classic—the 1989 Preakness is the best horse race I ever saw, and the 1997 Preakness is in my top five….along with the 1978 Belmont are the three best Triple Crown races (in my opinion)…

    • arlingtonfan on May 12, 2025 at 4:00 pm

      My favorite Preakness was Afleet Alex’s in 2005. It was incredible how he went to his knees late in the race (interference from Scrappy T, if I recall the horse’s name aright), then bounced up as if nothing had happened and went on to win.

      • arlingtonfan on May 12, 2025 at 4:05 pm

        By 4 3/4 lengths, no less!

      • Todd Vaughn on May 12, 2025 at 4:14 pm

        And Tim Ritchie trained Alex to run a full Triple Crown series where he showed what he was made of.

        • arlingtonfan on May 12, 2025 at 5:14 pm

          He did indeed!

    • Katy on May 12, 2025 at 7:42 pm

      Agree with your assessment and favorite races, Matthew W! It’s still a Grade 1 Classic with a $2 million purse. I really do want it to be a success, especially when they fully get this track renovated and run by MD.

      Sunday Silence and Easy Goer WERE the real life Black and Sagr for me. (“The Black Stallion Returns”)

      I also agree with arlingtonfan, and consider Afleet Alex’s Preakness win as the most terrifyingly exhilarating feat of athleticism I’ve ever seen in horse racing. I can’t believe that it was 20 years ago! It was a reminder that these horses and jockeys are the last of the gladiators, for better or worse. On that day and again in 3 weeks, Alex was much the best.

      PS – A friend and mentor had Scrappy T before his infamous role in that Preakness. We were sad for the horse.

    • Davids on May 12, 2025 at 9:32 pm

      Bernardini won the Preakness Stakes, one of the best 5 horses this century.

      • Betsy on May 12, 2025 at 10:00 pm

        His Preakness was incredible – but overshadowed by the tragic Barbara

        • Lynda King on May 13, 2025 at 10:48 am

          There were threats made against Bernardini’s life.

          Some twisted individuals blamed Bernardini for Barbaro’s breakdown and eventually succumbing to laminitis.

  5. charles reddell on May 12, 2025 at 1:21 pm

    Steve, nice job as always.

    Will you be publishing a Preakness piece?

    • Steve Haskin on May 12, 2025 at 2:08 pm

      I will have a recap. Nothing before. We have a special column for tonight.

  6. Joe P on May 12, 2025 at 12:49 pm

    You have to wonder if Journalism will scratch from the Preakness and target the Bekmont if the track comes up sloppy like the KY Derby . Rispoli said the mud kick back bothered Journalism. He ran good on the sloppy track, but seems to have better explosion and staying power on a dry track.

    • Matthew W on May 12, 2025 at 1:58 pm

      He didn’t settle for a quarter mile, then he ran a good race—I think he liked the offhping….at least as goodan anyone else…Curlin/Uncle MO that’s two solid wet track horses! Let’s win The Preakness!..

      • Matthew W on May 12, 2025 at 2:10 pm

        Looks like a $3.40 horse—when you string good races—the pattern is set he lays over them….

  7. Betsy on May 12, 2025 at 10:49 am

    David, Heart looks good! He’s shipping to Pimlico today!

    I really hope it’s not a sloppy track – he already has to deal with so much

    • Davids on May 12, 2025 at 9:16 pm

      Betsy, on the Preakness post draw show they mentioned that rain was expected. I hope not but Heart of Honor should be ok on wet track. I think there was rain about at Southwell in October last year in his first race. E got post 4 by the way which is ok.

      • Betsy on May 12, 2025 at 10:02 pm

        But Southwell is all-weather, right? So those tracks never get sloppy

        Nothing to be done about it, but it sucks

        4 is good

        I’ll be thrilled if he runs well

        • Davids on May 13, 2025 at 12:17 am

          Yes, Betsy, but I think it was raining all day at Southwell. I’m trying to find positives here. Ha ha I just don’t want it to rain at all. We had all that build up for the Kentucky Derby, for months, then, on the day, it was just an ugly mess of water and mud splashing everywhere.

          Pedigree wise, Heart of Honor should be ok on wet, sloppy track.

  8. TommyMcD on May 12, 2025 at 9:24 am

    Without seeing the Form yet, it seems like we have a “single” for Preakness Day.

  9. Matthew Rosato on May 12, 2025 at 6:57 am

    A big thank you to Eclipse. Horse racing needs a colt running in all 3 TC races successfully and then to continue on in the big summer races…again successfully. The sport also needs rivalries…so hopefully both the Derby winner, Baeza, and Journalism run in the third jewel.

    • Davids on May 12, 2025 at 9:23 pm

      Actually it’s Sandman that has a mass following. Racing needs connections like Sandman to interest young people.

      In reality, what has two Triple Crown winners in 10 years done to increase fans to the sport?

      • Matthew Rosato on May 14, 2025 at 3:21 pm

        One horse or one issue won’t change it all but the sport needs its stars to run more than a few times each year. I don’t think that can be argued. I welcome, with open arms, the young crowd. Can’t we have both?

  10. Gary on May 12, 2025 at 1:09 am

    Mark my words, Journalism towers over this field, only unknown is the BB horse.
    However, like I said, its all about money, further if he loses the Preakness badly, he will not run in the Belmont. Which will prove that this decision was all based on his chance of winning and MONEY.

    • Matthew W on May 12, 2025 at 1:36 am

      I think this horse was primed for the Triple Crown…

      • Gary on May 12, 2025 at 11:50 am

        All of the derby horses were primed for the derby, after there is no time for anything else, only the fastest horse who can carry his speed over the distance wins.

      • Dominic J Dinatale on May 13, 2025 at 6:04 am

        Journalisn ran great…his best race ever…but there is one jhorse bettrr than him…Sovereignty!

    • Mike Relva on May 12, 2025 at 8:15 am

      At least he’s running,right?

    • Mike Relva on May 12, 2025 at 3:50 pm

      Gary the ‘BB horse’ is the least of my concern.

      • Gary on May 12, 2025 at 6:44 pm

        You a mental block. That’s why real pros depend on (hopefully many) so that the odds get better.

        • Gary on May 12, 2025 at 6:50 pm

          *have

        • Mike Relva on May 12, 2025 at 6:52 pm

          Sure. Whatever you say. We’ll know Sat.

  11. Davids on May 11, 2025 at 8:40 pm

    They’re now predicting thunderstorms for Saturday and Friday. How miserable.

    • Nelson Maan on May 11, 2025 at 10:00 pm

      I only trust metereologist when they forecast the day before … it is 50/50 right now.

      They are a lot of jokes about them!

      • Davids on May 12, 2025 at 12:00 am

        Nelson, i just loath sloppy dirt tracks. It’s not the sport of Kings throwing mud pies at each other. Fingers crossed the rain stays away.

    • Lynda King on May 12, 2025 at 8:55 am

      Davids, it appears that the system that has been producing heavy rain here since Saturday with more to come today and tonight is headed northeast.

      The latest forecast has rain starting tonight in Baltimore through Friday including scattered thunderstorms. As of this morning no thunderstorms forecast for Saturday. Doubtful at this point if the horses will get much time on the track this week if the forecast holds.

      I read somewhere (hopefully someone can confirm) that Pimlico has a new surface.

      Just my opinion but I think Journalism wins but hoping for a good result by Sandman. He is a fan favorite.

      • Davids on May 12, 2025 at 6:23 pm

        Thanks Lynda, I hope the rain goes away in time. The Kentucky Derby was a huge letdown, especially from afar, hopefully the Preakness gets a dry track.

        Journalism should be tough but the Preakness has had some odd results over the years. It would be something if Heart of Honor were to win. Even so, I’m very happy Johnny Velasquez has the mount on Sandman.

        • Lynda King on May 13, 2025 at 10:50 am

          I wish Heart of Honor had arrived earlier. Not much time to become acclimated to the track and the surroundings.

          • Davids on May 13, 2025 at 9:19 pm

            Yes, with all the rain around before the Preakness it’s not the best preparation either. I can’t truly gauge Heart of Honor’s chances in the Preakness but the horse is extremely consistent.

            Hopefully, Heart of Honor runs positively enough to go forward to the Belmont Stakes.

  12. Davids on May 11, 2025 at 8:20 pm

    What a fabulous day of racing at ParisLongchamp on Sunday, the first Classic races have been run and won with extraordinary close results. Breathtaking finishes as the 3 year accelerated to the finish line.

    Henri Mattisse won the Poule d’Essai des Poulains (2,000 Guineas) from Jonquil by a head with Camille Pissarro a length back in third. Zarigana won her first Group 1,
    Poule d’Essai des Poulains (1,000 Guineas) via disqualification of Shes Perfect with Mandanaba third. Watch the races if you haven’t already they are what the sport is all about.

    Next we move on to the jewel of European racing, Chantilly, for the Prix du Jockey Club (Derby) and the Prix du Diane (Oaks) in early June. Yes, the racing gets even better.

    Betsy, Ms Blacktype did you get to see the races live? Watching replays, which I’m reduced to, looses a lot of the anticipation, excitement, build up to the races. Nonetheless, still wonderful especially if the ones you want triumph. Ha ha

    • Betsy on May 11, 2025 at 8:58 pm

      David, I just saw the ending of the 2000 Guineas on Twitter -wow! Henri Matisse was very game – love Wootton Bassetts! He had a promising winner today as well in Albert Einstein – saw that on Twitter as well

      I hate to see big races decided by DQ- do you think it was justified?

      I’m now in Wales!

      • Davids on May 11, 2025 at 11:45 pm

        Betsy, the French stewards are deadly for any infractions in a race. I actually prefer their rulings and the jockeys know the consequences. If Zarigana wasn’t bumped she wins, easy to adjudicate. In France the rules are clear.

        Yes, Wootton Bassett is becoming a great sire, gorgeous horse and his progeny are often stunning individuals. Siyouni, is the same stunning individual and progeny.

        Wootton Bassett is going to stand for AUD 385,000 this year starting September.

        Wales is incredibly green or it was the last time I was there.

        • Betsy on May 12, 2025 at 4:37 am

          Totally unlike racing in the U.S., which is arbitrary & inconsistent

          He is stunning – I happen to prefer plain, dark horses, and he looks almost black

          Some dude on Twitter was saying yesterday that WB isn’t that good !

          So far from what I’ve seen, it still is very green!

          • Davids on May 12, 2025 at 8:23 pm

            Betsy, I’m the same really dark horses with a little star, liver chestnuts, and greys.

            Lol. Wootton Bassett isn’t that good. Tell that to the breeders who are paying the exorbitant stud fees. Coolmore are many things but wrong in selecting stallions they are not.

            Are you going to the Cotswolds, they are truly unique and not that far from where you are. There are day bus tours around your area.

            • Lynda King on May 13, 2025 at 10:53 am

              Davids, IMHO the acquisition of WB was one of the best decisions Coolmore has made.

              • Davids on May 13, 2025 at 9:43 pm

                Lynda, all the signs were there prior to Coolmore’s acquisition but the results are even better than expected. Wootton Bassett has been phenomenal.

                The progeny of St Mark’s Basilica are highly anticipated this year as 2 year olds in Europe. St Mark’s Basilica is standing in Australia in 2025 as well as Wootton Bassett but for about the 10th of the stud fee – AUD$38,000.

                Paddington, Coolmore’s other hopeful son of Siyouni, is starting in New Zealand at Windsor Park for NZD$35.000. August Rodin is also standing at Windsor Park for NZD$30,000.

                New Zealand breeds for Classic runners, Australia is infatuated with sprint runners rather than Classic performers, unfortunately.



    • Ms Blacktype on May 11, 2025 at 11:13 pm

      Davids, I watched both on replay, but I thought both finishes were thrilling. I didn’t see how Zarigana could have won, but a disqualification (unexplained on Fanduel, or at least not obviously so, since I tend to fast forward) makes sense. All superb horses in the top three for each race. Fascinating how it comes down to less than 10 seconds in the stretch run in these mile classics.

      • Davids on May 11, 2025 at 11:57 pm

        That’s right Ms Blacktype, they are rocketing home, especially in the mile races, and they fan out so your eyes are darting all over the place. The racing in Europe is much more strategic than US racing and the timing is everything. The jockeys are endeavouring to place their mounts on the finish line at ultimate speed.

        You get used to the rules in France the stewards are very strict on infractions, the stewards take no prisoners. Ha ha Which I prefer. In England, Ireland, Australia, US the winner of the race is given more license if they cause an infraction during the race.

    • Lynda King on May 12, 2025 at 9:05 am

      Davids I am hearing that connections of She’s Perfect are appealing the decision.
      Also read that Wootten Bassett will shuttle to Australia.

      • Davids on May 12, 2025 at 8:44 pm

        Yes, Lynda, I’ve actually watched some videos on YouTube pleading the case for Shes Perfect. The French stewards seldom reverse their decision, especially in Classic races.

        Perhaps the connections of Shes Perfect should grasp a better understanding of the French rules which differ to English rules.

        Yes, Wootton Bassett is shuttling down to Australia again with a stud fee of AUD $385,000. Hopefully, not for too many more years.

  13. Matthew W on May 11, 2025 at 6:00 pm

    Preakness has Journalism….

    • Joe P on May 11, 2025 at 6:31 pm

      An easy spot for Journalism Matt, looking at the field. He should win this at 4-5. If he runs in the Belmont I will be against Journalism for the win spot, too many fresh horses waiting for him. Baeza IMO is the most likely Bekmont winner. Rodriguez is interesting if he’s fully healed. I know you’ve been high on him Matt. Do you consider Rodriguez a win contender in the Belmont?

      • Matthew W on May 11, 2025 at 11:47 pm

        Joe I consider Sovereignty, Journalism, Baeza for The Belmont, by a wide margin..

    • Jeff on May 11, 2025 at 8:22 pm

      Great sportsmanship!

      • Todd Vaughn on May 11, 2025 at 9:41 pm

        Agreed. If the horse is fit and sound, run him. A lot can happen in that extra 3 weeks to the Belmont. Hoping he wins and sets up the showdown at Saratoga.

  14. Lynda King on May 11, 2025 at 4:05 pm

    White Abarrio has arrived at Saratoga to prep for the Met Mile.
    Honestly this horse gets more beautiful every time I see him.

    • Davids on May 11, 2025 at 8:25 pm

      Lynda, this Met Mile could be one for the ages if Mindframe and Fierceness also turn up.

      • Lynda King on May 12, 2025 at 9:24 am

        Davids I have a warm spot in my heart for White Abarrio.
        He turned 6 in March.

        To date his record is 21: 10-2-3 and
        $6,791,920 in earnings.

        There are rumbles that if he has a winning 6 year old campaign he would be in contention for HOY.

        CDI pulled a dirty stunt on Saffie which resulted in him going to Dutrow temporarily. Do not think CDI ever apologized and no chance they ever will.

        I think White Abarrio’s flexibility and adaptability to different trainers, tracks, distances is something to be admired and proof that yes, these Thoroughbreds can race beyond 3 if carefully managed.

        • Katy on May 12, 2025 at 1:12 pm

          White Abarrio looks like he’s cut from marble. Kudos to Mike Repole for bringing his guys back, but I’ll be pulling for Whitey all the way, too. He’s our current Casa Creed!

          Davids, I think you’ve got it: the Belmont looks like the undercard to the Metropolitan if they all make the gate. Hope it will run fairly and safely for all!

          • Lynda King on May 12, 2025 at 4:29 pm

            Katy, like your description, “cut from marble”.

          • Davids on May 12, 2025 at 8:58 pm

            Katy, the Belmont Stakes card is outstanding but I wish they could make two Saturdays out of the one. The Metropolitan should stand alone.

            Unfortunately, we’re old racing people, the one day extravaganza obviously works best for casual racing fan. That’s life, I guess.

        • Davids on May 12, 2025 at 8:52 pm

          Yes. Lynda, White Abarrio is a favorite of mine as well. I fear where he might end up at stud which is probably outside the US but you never know. Taylor Made tend to give them a go at least. Exquisite horse, beauty in motion.

          • Lynda King on May 13, 2025 at 11:21 am

            Davids, I was not aware TM had a stud deal for WA.

            Sadly what you say his true, they will give him chance but not a very long one.
            I personally have no use for TM.

            Duncan Taylor’s response to California Chrome fans about the sale of CC to Japan was very rude, condescending and very elitist.

            • Davids on May 13, 2025 at 9:56 pm

              No Lynda, I’m just hoping Taylor Made might stand White Abarrio. They often give good racehorses but with less prestigious pedigrees a chance.

  15. Downthestretch on May 11, 2025 at 12:46 pm

    After being out of town the past week finally had a chance to read Steve’s article here.
    Congrats to Bill Mott and Godolphin. Sovereignty was the best horse on Derby day.

    To say I was disappointed with the results would be an understatement. As from my previous post my wagers were surrounding the horse American Promise. His run turned him into American “COM” Promise. Some of it I feel was jockey caused and the rest by other horse/jockeys. Expecting better in the Preakness

    As far as Sovereignty skipping the Preakness and going for the Belmont instead. IMO this is a mistake as I feel he has a better chance of winning the Preakness (due to pace scenario) than the Belmont. Because of his running style I think the Preakness would set up better for him. In the Belmont early pace is usually slower and the end it is a calvary charge to the finish. We will see. If Journalism skips Preakness for Belmont I definitely like him over Sovereignty.

    For the Preakness I like American Promise, Journalism (if he runs) and Baffert’s horse Goal Oriented. Now that Sandman is entered in Preakness he should benefit from fast early pace.

    • Nelson Maan on May 11, 2025 at 2:53 pm

      Welcome back DTS … I missed your posts my fellow Murdoch Mystery enthusiast… but I am not fan of American Promise though …LOL

      It is amazing how polarizing the topic of changing the TC is … there is always a group of “experts” becoming very vociferous about the two-week turnaround every time there is no horse dominating the three jewels of the TC… it seems like the supporters of spacing it are the loudest in the main streaming media and no one is campaigning for keeping it as it is among the people who pop up in my YouTube menu (or so it seems in my computer)… every one is appealing to “common sense” and the “rigth thing to do” but still there is no agreement.

      For instance, I read that the TC is almost impossible now because we are breeding for speed and the spacing is wrong given the “current circumstances” however, no one talks about the two Triple Crown champions two years appart with two very fast horses trained by a quarter horse trainer only seven years ago.

      Looks to me like every one is blaming the horses just to excuse the trainers… but then again everything depends on the horses… there will in fact be genuine fake jewels and genuine genuine jewels eventually.

      Anyway, back to the Preakness I believe that entering Goal Oriented is a mistake … after what happened with Cornucopian this move looks more like desperation than a conviction that the son of Not this Time is equiped to defeat the most seasoned Stakes horses.

      I was happy for Sovereinty but I still think Journalism is the one best positioned to be the champion. Especially because I feel like he was not liking the footing in the Derby i.e. looked like he was extending with his two forelegs at the first time at some points…

      Let’s see what is decided about the Preakness…

    • Nelson Maan on May 11, 2025 at 4:20 pm

      Welcome back DTS … my first reply to you below is waiting moderation.

      I just wanted to say that we both are fans of Murdoch Myteries but I am not a fan of American Promise (at least for now)…. but the son of Justify will be running well in the Preakness for sure.

      As for Goal Oriented I believe he needs more seasoning before facing those peers with Stakes experience… running the Preakness seems like a mistake but he could also be another Taiba… who knows!

      Happy for Sovereignty but I still believe that Journalism did not like the sloppy track as I saw him at some points extending his forelegs together more like jumping than running smoothly; And the bumping at the start did not help him either… Anyway, I am still feeling Journalism is better positioned to be champion if he is not retired prematurely.

      Let’s see what they decide about the Preakness…

      • Downthestretchpp 0.01o on May 11, 2025 at 4:50 pm

        Thanks for the reply Nelson, I think AP could have gotten to the outside of Neoequous it would have been a different race for him., but Owen Almighty kept him boxed in. Then it looked like Juarez tried to go between Citizen Bull and NeoQ and decided to back off. Tried it again but Luis Saez on NeoQ was wise to it and squeezed him back. After that looked like AP quit. I hope in Preakness AP gets an outside post draw.

    • Davids on May 11, 2025 at 8:44 pm

      Downthestretch, if it’s going to rain as predicted on Saturday I hope they scratch Sandman. Might scratch from the race myself, can’t be bothered watching racing on sloppy dirt tracks.

      • Nelson Maan on May 11, 2025 at 10:06 pm

        I hope you don’t scare Journalism people …LOL

        • Davids on May 12, 2025 at 12:03 am

          If it rains too much I hope the ‘Journalist’ connections make the right decision.

          • Nelson Maan on May 12, 2025 at 3:41 pm

            You made me recall when McCarthy decided to postpone a workout on a Saturday with a sloppy track at Churchill to Sunday…. they must have felt that a guillotine fell close when Tappan Street who worked in that (Saturday) quagmire ended up with an injury ….

            That was a good decision … no one can predict injuries but prevention is always good…

            • Davids on May 12, 2025 at 9:01 pm

              Exactly Nelson, these are only young horses not fully developed yet.

  16. Matthew W on May 11, 2025 at 12:32 pm

    Hearing Aaron Wellman this morning say they owe it to Ashford, to build a resume—I am thinking they will enter Journalism in The Preakness…I was hoping they would wait….but hirse us doing fine–

  17. Matthew W on May 11, 2025 at 11:17 am

    It is a SHAME—that a GREAT DERBY gets marred, by these “animal cruelty” charges, labeled towards Sovereignty’s rider! TWo extra “strikes”……Horse Racing let in the crazies—and is paying the price, for that…..2025 Derby is the biggest viewed Derby since Sunday Silence/Easy Goer—Racing NEEDS to get out there and show how crops are nit what they used to be—we are READY for push back, so—-PUSH BACK!.

    • Gary on May 11, 2025 at 11:22 am

      I have said it long ago, that racing has to do that, especially on big days like the TC and the BC when they have a lot of time between races. I think it was Denman who had a nice video on this topic explaining the difference between the old whip and the crop.

    • Gloria on May 11, 2025 at 1:18 pm

      Alvarado is appealing, but admits he did it. And it is not the first time, which is why his fine is so big.

      • Matthew W on May 11, 2025 at 1:44 pm

        He “did it”….I got the exacta ten times and trifecta twice—I’m glad… he did it….

    • Jiffy on May 11, 2025 at 10:44 pm

      Matthew, I too was horrified to hear that Junior Alvarado was fined $62,000 for the unspeakable offense of winning a Kentucky Derby by concentrating on race riding instead of counting whip strokes. No one wants any animal to be abused, but in the winner’s circle Sovereignty did not look to me like a horse who had been subjected to $62,000 worth of abuse. I thought he looked pretty good. And Bill Mott, who takes such good care of his horses, did not seem upset. He looked thrilled. Yet, a black mark was placed on what was undoubtedly one of the happiest days of Junior Alvarado’s life just because of two strokes of a whip. That rule is ridiculous because abuse cannot be quantified. The whole idea that six strokes are fine but seven are so heinous that they demand a $31,000 penalty defies logic. Theoretically at least, depending on where they hit, one stroke could be abusive and eight could be quite acceptable. It’s also important to remember that Brian Hernandez got into a similar situation when he tried too hard to win the Travers on Thorpedo Anna and lost count of his whip strokes. If HISA is responsible for such an idiotic rule, they’ve lost my respect. It looks like a case of regulating for the sake of regulating–doing something stupid just so you can say you’ve done something. Penalizing a fine performance is not in the best interest of racing, and that rule needs to go.

      • Deacon on May 12, 2025 at 7:11 pm

        The fine was excessive but what do we expect, it is Churchill Downs.

  18. Lynda King on May 10, 2025 at 7:57 pm

    Sovereignty is tied for 8th place on the latest Longines World’s Best Racehorse ranking.
    White Abarrio is still in 5th place.
    Journalism is also on the list, lower down.
    Good to see so many dirt track horses in the top 20.
    You can view the latest ratings via a link in the Blood Horse article.

    • Jeff on May 11, 2025 at 11:27 am

      Sovereignty had the advantage of Mud and home track. We will see if he can follow up with anything remotely near his home track mud loving run. I doubt it.

      • Mike Relva on May 11, 2025 at 2:19 pm

        Jeff you always take digs at horses other than from your favorite barn. You seem bitter.

        • Jeff on May 11, 2025 at 8:24 pm

          Mike what are you speaking of? Is that not true?

          • Mike Relva on May 12, 2025 at 12:37 am

            Just admit it didn’t work out. Posted as far back as Jan. certain barn had no shot of winning Derby- even after reading continually how ‘loaded’ barn was. Guessing not loaded enough.

            • Jeff on May 12, 2025 at 12:42 pm

              Mike it did work out for me and brother. We both hit the trifecta, he talked me into including Sovereignty and I talked him into Baeza. So both were happy with result, even though we needed Baeza to win or come in second for a better payoff. Brother’s logic was the same Sovereignty is at home mud lover.

              • Mike Relva on May 12, 2025 at 3:57 pm

                Jeff, glad it worked out for you. However,you’re aware some here and other threads raved how the barn out West was stacked. My replies were no way! Seems someone correctly predicted this many months ago.



      • Dominic J Dinatale on May 12, 2025 at 11:16 am

        Advantage of MUD??? Sovereignty ran on the same track and he overcame the mud…he won despite tye mud not because of it…thats what the best horses do….

  19. Mike Relva on May 10, 2025 at 5:06 pm

    Anyone read article regarding McPeek agreeing with decision for Mott passing on Preakness? Also, stating he made mistake on M.D. racing in all three legs last year. My comments then was he’s stupid for emptying tank- pushing on with Belmont. This is what he does!

    • Lynda King on May 11, 2025 at 5:28 am

      Mike Relva, I read the article.
      He also regrets running Anna back in two weeks.

      • Mike Relva on May 11, 2025 at 2:50 pm

        Lynda, he made strategic mistakes with Swiss Skydiver.

  20. Lynda King on May 10, 2025 at 4:19 pm

    Update Sorcerers Silver.

    Surgical procedure to fuse the two fractured sesamoid bones was successful per Dr Bramalage at Rood and Riddle.
    While the colt is still listed in serious condition there is every indication so far that in a few months he will return to pasture and live a long life.
    Dr B had high praise for owners West Point Thoroughbreds and jockey Ortiz who pulled the colt up in the race.

    • Discopartner on May 10, 2025 at 4:29 pm

      I wonder what caused it in the race, a hidden hairline fracture or the track or handling during the race?

      • Lynda King on May 10, 2025 at 5:58 pm

        Discopartner, Dr Bramalage did not say.

        When the fractures happen in that area it does cut off the blood supply which is a concern.
        The sesomoids are fused with a plate and screws.

        Fractures of the sesamoids happen frequently in these young horses.
        The fusion technique has saved the lives of many horses from what I have read.

        I think The Player had the same surgery.

        Hopefully he will make a full recovery without complications.

        Sad in a way, he had a promising career ahead of him after winning several races. I think he was leading or close to the lead in this race when Irad eased him.

        • Discopartner on May 10, 2025 at 7:21 pm

          I remember The Player and the race it happened in. I wonder how he’s doing, a very popular horse who sat on his haunches like a human and whose trainer retired not long after that, he was also popular, a Will Rogers type of guy.

          • Lynda King on May 10, 2025 at 7:53 pm

            Discopartner, The Player is doing well the last I heard.
            He breds a few mares each season.
            You mentioned him sitting on his haunches.
            That is one of the reason he recovered so well. His habit of doing so took weight off the injured leg.

            • Discopartner on May 10, 2025 at 8:07 pm

              Glad to hear it, he was a nice looking horse, and a good racer, I had him in that race. It always hurts more when you pick someone and they falter.

            • Mike Relva on May 11, 2025 at 2:53 pm

              Visited Brass Hatt years ago at Buffs farm.

              • Mike Relva on May 11, 2025 at 2:54 pm

                Edit: Hat



              • CLOWNSKILL on May 12, 2025 at 12:43 pm

                Oooh, a horsey visit. How entitled.



              • Mike Relva on May 12, 2025 at 4:01 pm

                Clownshill, knew that would bring you out from your basement.Do you still maintain you would dine on horse meat?



    • Mike Relva on May 10, 2025 at 4:55 pm

      Thanks Lynda! Good news!

      • Lynda King on May 10, 2025 at 5:58 pm

        You are welcome Mike.

  21. TommyMcD on May 10, 2025 at 3:51 pm

    I wonder if Sandman will take the money that he did in the Derby?
    Well fancied to say the least.

  22. Gary on May 10, 2025 at 3:06 pm

    Hi Steve, any idea of what was Goal Oriented TG for his last race?

    • Gary on May 10, 2025 at 3:08 pm

      and also what was Journalism’s number in the Derby
      Thanks

      • Steve Haskin on May 10, 2025 at 10:36 pm

        Journalism 1 1/2

        • Gary on May 10, 2025 at 10:50 pm

          Great thanks, hope you have the other one maybe after the post draws

  23. Ms Blacktype on May 10, 2025 at 1:21 pm

    SANDMAN has entered the Preakness picture. Mark Casse says he’s fit enough to run, and I think he has a big shot. Curious what TG figure he got in the Derby.

    Steve or Nelson, do either of you have access to that fig?

    • Nelson Maan on May 10, 2025 at 2:03 pm

      Kudos to Mark Casse. The American and Canadian Hall of Fame trainer quoted Allen Jerkens when the giant killer said: “Run’ em when they are good”. Those are true great trainers …

      Steve will hopefuly share Sandman’s Derby TG or for any other Preakness runner at his convenience …

    • Steve Haskin on May 10, 2025 at 2:06 pm

      5 1/2

      • Ms Blacktype on May 11, 2025 at 11:04 pm

        Thanks, Steve. I expected a better number considering where he finished — but I guess he wasn’t as close to the top 4 as I thought.

    • Davids on May 10, 2025 at 9:50 pm

      At this stage it’s supposed to be 81 and sunny on Saturday but the humidity might be high. Lots of rain prior to Saturday.

  24. Matthew W on May 10, 2025 at 12:25 pm

    The idea…in The Kentucky Derby is you want to SETTLE your horse….the winner was settled very early in the race—Journalism was pinchfrom both sides around the fifth stride, then was hard used, to hold position, finally settling INSIDE, and that was where they did not want to be….I hope they also skip the Preakness, and have their 10 furlong rematch at Saratoga! I thought Journalism was best going in and I think he ran best….and will prove it in four weeks, IF they point directly to The Belmont—-if I own Journalism I think you only go in The Preakness if Sovereignty goes….

    • Joe P on May 10, 2025 at 12:48 pm

      Agree Matthew with everything you said. I also hope Journalism skips the Preakness and targets the Belmont for that rematch. IMO Baeza or Journalism wins the Bekmont if he skips the Preakness.

      • Matthew W on May 10, 2025 at 2:05 pm

        Joe if J skips Preakness (I expect they will)…I think The Belmont will be a battle royale—between Sovereignty and Journalism….not Baeza…..but you never know—Sovereignty is a good horse….I stoll like Journalism better..

      • Mike Relva on May 11, 2025 at 2:24 pm

        Joe, in agreement with Journalism waiting for Belmont.

    • Discopartner on May 10, 2025 at 1:20 pm

      Sovereignty impressed me and hadn’t since his first win, Journalism looked tired. The former is not going to get any weaker, he has a superior closing move.

      • Matthew W on May 10, 2025 at 1:59 pm

        Well he WAS tired…..but I need another look at them….a well known man touted Sovereignty—and won plenty—he said after the first quarter he gave J a 20-1 chance—he thought J ran the best race—I just need to see that again…..in The Belmont—hopefullyboth skip The Preakness—and with Baeza in the race—Sovereigntywill be 2-1 and Baeza oerhaps 3-1…..Journalismmight float up to 5-1— Ill back up the Brinks Truck…. —

        • Discopartner on May 10, 2025 at 2:26 pm

          I think he may have gotten tired from the distance, not the trip, which wasn’t as bad as you say. But yeah, he deserves another chance on a dry track, which would be the one thing I can see as a valid excuse, not taking to a muddy track.

          I think the public handicappers and fans got it wrong, Journalism wasn’t all that, as in, unbeatable. And most of them missed the closer advantage angle. But Sovereignty, who I didn’t pick either, wasn’t and am not a fan of, and thought might not get the distance, had a powerful close. That was a surprise to me. I put a bunch of closers including him, in some bets, so won some.

  25. Matthew W on May 9, 2025 at 6:56 pm

    $62,000 for hitting his Derby winning g mount two extra times, with a foam whip—trying to win The Derby, mane it make sense..

    • Jeff on May 10, 2025 at 1:24 am

      Alvarado came within 2 more strikes of having sovereignty disqualified. He said he took two extra whips when sovereignty was alongside journalism.

    • Counter Point on May 10, 2025 at 8:11 am

      $310,000-$62,0000= Affordable

    • Rob Austin on May 10, 2025 at 9:36 am

      This is still bothersome. He gets fined for the extra whip, but Martin Garcia and Brian Hernandez Jr. get no discipline for their reckless rides on a sloppy track. I don’t wish harm to the horses and jockeys but someday, if you keep looking the other way, there is going to be a cluster… and?

      • Todd Vaughn on May 10, 2025 at 11:53 am

        You’re right. Everyone was on Garcia for coming out, but Hernandez making a sharp left to the rail was really dangerous. Didn’t help Journalism any.

    • TommyMcD on May 10, 2025 at 10:48 am

      Seems like a lot of money for a ticky-tack violation to me. They also gave him 2 days off.

      Things happen fast in a race. I appreciate that they are trying to protect horses, and they do seem to be making an impact, but I think they should have let this one go.

  26. Nelson Maan on May 9, 2025 at 5:31 pm

    For the fans of Thoro-Graph I am listing the best figures of the Peter Pan Stakes tomorrow.

    Captain Cook: 9, 6.75 as a 2yo, 2 and 4.25 in his last two races
    Vassimo: 9.25, 6.5, and 5.5
    Hill Road: 5 (BCJ), 6 at Tampa
    McAfee: 9, 11 | 9, 6.5
    Happily Delusional: 12, 12, 8.25, 6.25
    Surfside Moon: 4, 7.5
    Uncaged: 12.5 7.5

    If Captain Cook goes back to the 2 TG in his Wihters win every one is running for second…

    Happily Delusional’s upward trend is very compelling. At 20 to 1 with the combative Paco Lopez piloting it is a great option for the bottom of the exotics.

    3-Surfside Moon and 5-McAfee offers the best value at 8 to 1 ML.

    I am proposing the following $24-Superfecta in the Peter Pan.

    8-Captain Cook/5-Hill Road
    8-Captain Cook/5-Hill Road
    1-Vassimo/2-Happily Delusional/3-Surfside Moon/5-McAfee
    1-Vassimo/2-Happily Delusional/3-Surfside Moon/5-McAfee

    I expect Hill Road to run well in the Belmont Stakes so this race would (should) confirm that he belongs at the top level for Chad Brown…

    Good luck to the bettors and safe trips to the athletes.

    • Matthew W on May 9, 2025 at 8:58 pm

      I read where Dutrow thinks McAfee is a one turn horse, that he’s running because the owners say so—I wonder……this is a cagey trainer, I think this horse has a big race in him…

      • Matthew W on May 9, 2025 at 9:00 pm

        McAfee…cost $40k—same as his half sister Thorpedo Anna…

      • Nelson Maan on May 10, 2025 at 11:29 am

        Thanks for the information Matthew… I have not seen that interview but it reminded me of Bryan Lynch being adamant about Owen Almighty NOT going to be good at running the 1 1/4 mile of the Derby and he ended up beating 14 of the best 3-year-olds in the world.

        Besides, McAfee’s best race so far has been the Wood Memorial and the fact that Dutrow is attempting another 9 furlong Stakes contradicts what he said about Thorpedo Anna’s half brother. Perhaps they are looking for a two-digit payoff there…who knows!

        Go figure!

        • Matthew W on May 10, 2025 at 12:03 pm

          It’s in today’s Racing Form…

          • Matthew W on May 10, 2025 at 12:08 pm

            Nelson….my sight is so poor…..and I could not find that article—-it’s possible Dutrow was talking about Captain Cook—but I was pretty sure he was talking about McAfee….

            • Nelson Maan on May 10, 2025 at 3:51 pm

              No problem Matthew … we just will let the horses speak on the track on behalf of their trainers!

  27. Bill Dawson on May 9, 2025 at 1:49 pm

    RE: Peter Pan Stakes
    It appears that Chad Brown will not run his impressive maiden winner, Lordship, in the Peter Pan, but will point him to the Long Branch Stakes, at Monmouth on Saturday.
    He’s listed at the 3rd choice on the morning line at 4-1. In which case, I’ll replace him with Surfside Moon, in my superfecta p/w wagers. KD winner, Junior Alvarado will be aboard SM in the Peter Pan.
    My adjusted superfecta p/w wagers will be as follows:
    8/ 1,3,4,5,6/ 1,3,4,5,6/ 1,3,4,5,6
    1,3,4,5,6/ 8/ 1,3,4,5,6/ 1,3,4,5,6
    Safe trips for all.

    • Bill Dawson on May 9, 2025 at 2:21 pm

      Edit: KD winning jockey, Junior Alvarado will be aboard Surfside Moon.

    • Ms Blacktype on May 9, 2025 at 3:46 pm

      I’m on Captain Cook and Hill Road for that one, but we know you are hot right now Bill. Good luck with your wagers.

      • Bill Dawson on May 9, 2025 at 5:14 pm

        Thanks, Ms Blacktype
        Good luck to you as well.

      • Bill Dawson on May 9, 2025 at 6:48 pm

        Ms Blacktype
        Keep an eye on Lordship, (entered in the Long Brach), he’s a full brother to Hall of Fame, winner of the G3 Mineshaft, 2nd in the G2 New Orleans Classic and 3rd in the G2 Alysheba this past Saturday.
        Lordship checks a lot of boxes and offers good value at 4-1, in the Long Branch.

  28. Gary on May 9, 2025 at 1:01 pm

    Rodriguez is our of the Preakness.

    • arlingtonfan on May 9, 2025 at 2:21 pm

      Rats! I was looking forward to seeing him run.

    • Ms Blacktype on May 9, 2025 at 3:47 pm

      Yep, the foot bruise hasn’t had time to heal. Let’s hope Journalism decides to enter so it will be a true classic, and not a Grade 3.

  29. TommyMcD on May 9, 2025 at 12:54 pm

    Rodriguez is out of the Preakness. Some people suspected as much when BB entered a second runner.

  30. TommyMcD on May 9, 2025 at 8:10 am

    I was looking back at the last five Preakness races starting with the Covid-delayed 2020 edition that was run on October 3rd of that year (strange days).

    The first thing that I noticed or was reminded of is that both Authentic and Epicenter were beaten in the Preakness. I can’t speak for everyone, but I would consider both of them superior horses.

    The other thing is the declining number of runners in the Preakness.
    2020: 11 runners
    2021: 10 runners
    2022: 9 runners
    2023: 7 runners
    2024: 8 runners

    Not enough years to draw a conclusion, but semi-interesting, nonetheless.

  31. Betsy on May 9, 2025 at 12:06 am

    Hey David

    Holiday is going great !

    Today I’m going to take a train ride on the Settle – Carlisle line, supposedly a gorgeous journey.

    I don’t know that the French Guineas will be aired here….

    Sunday, I’m off to North Wales for a few days

    Jamie is extremely stubborn……Saffie is not only too weak, she’s joint to have ZERO experience at Pimlico before the Preakness. It’s asinine

    • Davids on May 9, 2025 at 1:44 am

      Betsy, you’ll enjoy the Settle – Carlisle Line trip as apart from the landscape you’ll cross over the historic Ribblehead Viaduct. It’s over 100 feet above ground and around 440 yards long. I’ve only seen it on TV though.

      You can catch the races on YouTube anyway. Wales is incredibly green but I’m only familiar with Cardiff and Swansea.

      With the jockey situation, it is what it is. Fingers crossed.

      • Betsy on May 9, 2025 at 5:24 am

        David, I’m so excited…I may stop at Ribblehead actually – there’s apparently a great little pub there by the station. I’ll then spend time in Settle & then return home

        Where I’m headed, it’s supposed to be just gorgeous – lots of castles, too, so yay!

        That’s true. I keep forgetting YT!

        Yep, just going to think positive thoughts!

        • Davids on May 9, 2025 at 8:38 pm

          The Station Inn? I think? Are you visiting Castle Howard where they filmed the original “Brideshead Revisited” – stunning.

          Betsy, you seem to be having a great time, apart from the tooth, fantastic, there is so much to see. Patching history together from what you’ve learnt from childhood.

          • Betsy on May 9, 2025 at 10:56 pm

            David, yes!! And it was delicious! I had pasta with tomato sauce – sooo good! Even better, I got my Cranachan!

            I believe Castle Howard is closer to York …I have it on my list!

            The tooth was an annoyance, but I honestly haven’t thought much about it since.

            So much to see, almost too much to see!

            I love history, so it’s always present in my life, actually – not just since childhood. I’ll read about it, watch tv programs, etc….

            • Lynda King on May 10, 2025 at 2:43 pm

              Betsy my Daughter, youngest Granddaughter and SIL left on Tursday for their trip to Europe. My oldest Granddaughter is staying behind to hold down the fort and keep her schedule at the dog and cat rescue aand veternarian’s office where she works. My SIL will be traveling with them for two weeks. My Daughter and Granddaughter will not be returning until July 17.
              Their itinerary this go round includes Norway, Sweden, Finland and Denmark,and return visits to Italy, Scotland and England.

              I might have mentioned that my youngest Granddaughter graduated a couple of weeks ago with a double major, Psychology and Dance. She is taking a year off to pursue dance opportunities in New York and Chicago before continuing her education to obtain a masters in Psychology. She has been dancing since she was three years old.

              My other Granddaughter is headed off to Veternarin college in September. She recently obtained her Master’s in Veternarian Shelter Work.
              It would be nice if she was going to become a large animal vet, LOL.

              I do not know specifically where they are traveling in England other than Stonehenge. The younger GD has not been to Stonehenge.

              Before Covid my Daughter flew to Egypt by her herself for a ten day trip to visit the Great Pyramids, the Sphinx, the massive museum that Egypt has built and other sites.

              I have certainly enjoyed reading your posts about your travels in England.

            • Davids on May 10, 2025 at 9:22 pm

              Betsy, I hope you’re visiting York Minster (York Cathedral) while you’re in the north of England some of the stained glass dates back to the 12th Century. Moreover, it’s the largest Cathedral in England.

              Yes, Betsy, history is so compelling. You should subscribe to BBC Sounds Podcasts there is a large variety of history programs to listen to. I could give you a list. Ha ha

              There is always so much to see, and too little time. It’s fascinating finding out where you are visiting next. Have fun!!

  32. Davids on May 8, 2025 at 9:10 pm

    For those interested in European Classic races we are lucky to visit Paris on Sunday for Group 1 Poule d’Essai des Pouliches (French 1,000 Guineas) and the Group 1 Poule d’Essai des Poulains (French 2,000 Guineas).

    Both races have superior fields than the English versions run last week with the highlight being, without a doubt, the late Aga Khan’s Siyouni filly, Zarigana. The expectations on Zarigana are extremely high but so is the talent.

    With the colts, the son of Wootton Bassett, Henri Matisse, seems liable to paint the town red with a burst of speed. However, do not disregard the other painter son of Wootton Bassett, Camille Pissarro, the spOILS could be a little murky as they flash past the finishing post.

    What an impression these two may leave is worth a look but Zarigana appears stardom bound. Will she denied, racing can be a taxing sport full of compromises. At there is one thing there is no sign of rain or mud to be splashed around as was displayed at Churchill Downs last Saturday.

    In Australia, we have the one Group 1 race being run this weekend, at Morphettville, in Adelaide, the 1 million dollar 6f ‘The Goodwood Handicap.’ Yes, they love their sprints in Australia along with the audacious prize money. The envy of the racing world.

    A horse to keep an eye on for the upcoming Epsom Derby at good odds could be the Siyouni colt, Mount Kilimanjaro, who rattled off a good win in the Boodles Raindance Dee Stakes at Chester overnight.

    Haven’t had time to read Steve’s recap of the Kentucky Derby as i’ve been in Darwin all week for a conference. Never again. lol.

    Enjoy the beautiful racing at ParisLongchamp on Sunday, the sun will be shinning.

    • Ms Blacktype on May 9, 2025 at 12:41 pm

      Davids, you make me want to run out and buy a plane ticket to DeGaulle. If you’re in Darwin, I assume you’ll be watching all the races down under. Oz to Paree must be a hellishly long flight.

      • Davids on May 9, 2025 at 6:54 pm

        Ms Blacktype, I’ve escaped Darwin, back home now. I always arrive in Rome when visiting Europe then take a train trip to wherever after a few dats in Rome. It’s just magic going through the Alps by train.

        The flight from Melbourne to Rome is an odd 20 hours but you prepare for it you can dehydrate quite markedly and you have to move around. lol.

        Betsy’s adventures are making me want to holiday in Europe again but with COVID etc the mood tempers a bit.

        • Ms Blacktype on May 10, 2025 at 10:56 am

          You can’t beat Rome. With the exception of the last one to Greece, all my recent European trips seem to at least touch Rome for a few days, and it never disappoints. I’d wait for cooler weather, though. Summers have been unusually hot there in recent years.

          Just discovered I’m a day ahead on the French classics, so I’ll set up the recorder once I make sure of the correct channel here in the US. Enjoy your weekend!

          • Davids on May 10, 2025 at 9:42 pm

            Yes, Ms Blacktype, as they say Rome is the eternal city. The summers in Europe are becoming quite dangerous through climate change. Amsterdam is wonderful in summer the heat isn’t as oppressive as other parts of Europe but it’s totally overcrowded by tourists now in summer they tell me. I lived there for quite a while when I was younger.

    • Counter Point on May 10, 2025 at 10:16 am

      Aomori City

      • Davids on May 10, 2025 at 9:34 pm

        Good luck with him, there are so many here and there doesn’t appear to be a standout – yet. Jonquil is another with strong credentials.

  33. El Kabong on May 8, 2025 at 8:53 pm

    Tradition be damned. Humans have always dictated the conditions and so they are responsible for creating the best racing conditions for the equines. Two weeks to the second leg of the triple crown is a tradition we should all let go. The change in distance and location is enough. I would also let go of two other major traditions. May is the wettest month in Kentucky. Push the race back two weeks, run it at 3pm eastern( National TV changed that to 6pm for viewer #’s) but we all know what a sloppy decision that has become. Preserving some old misguided notions so that we can measure deeds of the past with those of the present is irresponsible to the equine. Let’s enjoy better weather for the Kentucky Derby. Let’s enjoy more participation for the Preakness. Let’s make this about the equines as much as it is for us. If Secretariat could talk, I’m sure he would advise us to do what is best for his brothers and sisters. This is not about reducing the sport. On the contrary, we just might find that more people might enjoy a sunny derby, a full field at the Preakness and the Belmont, the grueling test, run in late June with a full field, and not just complimentary field. We need to evolve. The situation begs for common sense. Nothing more.

    • Davids on May 8, 2025 at 9:47 pm

      I agree, El Kabong. In brief, isn’t it better to save US racing wholesale, than saving a tradition of 3 races that doesn’t function particularly well anymore in the 21st Century?

      Godolphin aren’t interested in winning the English Triple Crown…

    • Dewey Hebert on May 9, 2025 at 7:20 am

      Well put, El Kabong. Comparing different generations is always difficult due to conditions, strength of competition etc. The champions of each era have their legacy and let’s leave it at that. We must adapt to today’s thoroughbred. It’s all about the horse after all.

      As for the weather in Kentucky, climate change has made weather patterns unreliable in recent years. The Derby has mostly been run under sunny skies when Mother Nature is in a good mood. She must have been having a bad day when she opened the skies and poured rain on the Derby this year. lol

    • Dominic J Dinatale on May 9, 2025 at 9:02 am

      Needs to be lef.t alone…the TC is perfect…the horses are inferior….time for breeders to wake up…how about we split the purse money evenly between all the runners…every horse gets a purse check all for the same amount?

    • Hammer on May 9, 2025 at 12:31 pm

      I agree with Secretariat and El Kabong.

    • Troller on May 9, 2025 at 3:22 pm

      Let me get this straight, NBC reported a television audience of 17.7 million viewers for the Derby, the largest since 1989. But, of course, that should be a secondary interest. With the ever increasing number of races run on sloppy tracks due to climate change, not only should we move the Derby back a couple weeks, it should be televised earlier in the day to further reduce the chance of a sloppier track. Do I have that right?
      Boy, that is common sense.

      You forgot one, though. That Derby field size. Way too big. Get rid of that new twenty-horse gate. Fourteen? Twelve is better.

      • Todd Vaughn on May 9, 2025 at 4:06 pm

        Are there statistics for climate change vis a vis sloppy tracks and time of day?

    • AK on May 10, 2025 at 10:24 am

      El Kabong: Well said. I agree@

  34. Greg V on May 8, 2025 at 3:17 pm

    Baffert is sending another to Preakness – Goal Oriented – 2/2 in budding career and ran a 109 Equibase Speed Figure at Churchill on Derby Day. For all of you pedigree experts (and I am not in that crowd) it seems very interesting to me that he has zero crosses in 5 generations. The list of sires in generation 5 is Northern Dancer, Secretariat, Blushing Groom, Roberto, Forty Niner, Valid Appeal, Minnesota Mac (?), Damascus, Mr. Prospector, Nureyev, Silver Hawk, Hawaii (great stamina influence), Hail to Reason, Herbager, Nijinski II, and Charlottesville (GB). Pretty much an all star lineup…. But when I searched for a TruNicks grade it came up with an “F”!

    • Davids on May 12, 2025 at 3:59 am

      Greg V, the reason why Goal Oriented gets an F is because the cross is so poor. There are no black type winners only one Graded placed result with Dancing Belle plus one stakes placed runner in Pop Keenan.

      The more black type winners especially Grade/Group 1 winners in the cross the higher the variant A+++ etc.

  35. Todd Vaughn on May 8, 2025 at 2:16 pm

    Bill Mott said Sovereignty came off the trailer at Saratoga “like a tiger.” Then shame on yoy, Bill. He should be in Baltimore.

    • Terri Zeitz on May 8, 2025 at 5:43 pm

      Todd Vaughn– Bill Mott is doing what is right for the horse, which is what he’s always done. He thinks about the horse above all else. And that’s what should matter. I am sure that is why he has been associated with Sheikh Mo and Godolphin.

      • Todd Vaughn on May 8, 2025 at 6:54 pm

        I disagree. He is doing what Godolphin wants him to do, which is his prerogative, but if the horse is feeling “like a tiger,” racing needs him in the Preakness.

        • Zanytactics on May 8, 2025 at 11:01 pm

          Todd, when you have an opportunity to own a horse such as Sovereignty, by all means…race the horse as you please. But don’t expect for other people to think and feel the same way as you do. Especially, owners of horses that are worth millions of dollars. It’s their horse, their decision and none of us are in position to dictate what they should be doing.

          I am huge TB racing fan. Once in while, common sense needs to prevail. I am disappointed that the connections decided to skip the Preakness. However, I will not lose sleep over that decision.

          • Mike Relva on May 9, 2025 at 12:41 am

            Totally understand why some aren’t in agreement,however if he ran and won all three races,some will say not a true Belmont. Connections owe no one. If he were mine, would skip and not look back.

        • Dominic J Dinatale on May 9, 2025 at 9:06 am

          Horse racing is not the responsability of godolphin/mott/sovereignty!

          Horse racing needs to breed better….in the 70s the TC wan’t that hard, was it….bb and pletcher nd 2 or 3 others have ruined the breed with their methods….

      • Gary on May 8, 2025 at 8:44 pm

        Is there any trainer that says that does not say that?

      • Matthew W on May 9, 2025 at 1:29 am

        What’s right for the horse? Run a just turned three year old in ten furlongs of slop against 18 others? Da horror! Put that tiger in bubblewrap……

    • Ms Blacktype on May 9, 2025 at 12:44 pm

      Bill’s not going to get much training time with him before next week at the earliest. Pouring here (as it has been all week), and I’m an hour and a half south of Saratoga.

  36. roger j johnson on May 8, 2025 at 2:04 pm

    leave tradition alone breeding for speed will just make four 1/4 6F 1MILE races fore the rich. We need to breed for SOUNDNESS NOT THE RICH. look at how money has done to college football and other sports. Change the tripe crown and lose me a 35 year race fan. ROGER

    • Nelson Maan on May 8, 2025 at 4:49 pm

      ROGER that!

  37. Matthew W on May 8, 2025 at 12:29 pm

    Baeza…….made up four lengths in the final 1/16……he hissed 2nd by a jump—one jump……

    • Discopartner on May 8, 2025 at 11:38 pm

      Second was well behind first and tiring fast.

      • Matthew W on May 9, 2025 at 1:31 am

        Mr Negative….

        • Discopartner on May 10, 2025 at 12:49 pm

          Positive about who I like.

  38. TommyMcD on May 8, 2025 at 10:52 am

    They won’t be drawing post positions for the Preakness until Monday at 6pm.
    Going against the recent trend of getting the races out there as early as possible.
    Handicappers appreciate getting the Form as early as possible to get busy on monster 14-race cards.
    Strike one on the new era at Pimlico.

  39. Nelson Maan on May 7, 2025 at 6:11 pm

    I am not sure if anyone shares this feeling … but it is sad to see how the Triple Crown has lost its charm.

    The Kentucky Derby being perceived as a pinnacle of American horse racing is offsetting the fact that it is the first leg of the TRIPLE CROWN. The Derby tradition is so rich that makes the Preakness look like the poor cousin in this day and age despite also having a rich tradition itself.

    Obviously, it does not help that the current general consensus is that the two-week break is killing the Preakness appeal.

    Of course, connections got all the rigth to set their priorities for their horses; but if you don’t give any weight to the Triple Crown and your first priority is the Derby then your message is very clear: “change the spacing between the Triple Crown jewels”. It seems that not many people are willing to go against tradition though.

    I am sure you agree that a Triple Crown champion is way more treasured than a horse that stops at winning the Derby… just ask what the legacy (on the track/or as sires) of these Derby winners is: Giacomo, Super Saver, Orb, Always Dreaming, and Country House to name just a few that are no so prominent in the history books.

    I respect Bill Mott saying that Sovereignty ran three hard races in 4 months and that he wants to win the Travers with the Godolphin ace. However, if you see that the average of sophomore starts including the Derby for all its winners this Century is four (4), you might wonder what makes the previous 21 Derby winners who also ran in the Preakness stronger than Sovereignty?

    Perhaps knowing about the nine who injured or never won again after winning the Derby drove Mott’s decision. The master trainer said that no one wants to have a horse for 5 weeks only…

    American Pharoah and Nyquist were the last who had 2 starts as 3-year-olds before the Derby as Sovereignty’s. Pharoah became a Triple Crown champion and Nyquist never won again before retiring before the BC Classic.

    The five-week TC series is nowadays “a very challenging ordeal” but it was the (usual) way to go for more than 100 years. The Derby winners of the seventies had an average of 26 starts in their careers and those of the 80’s got an average of 21 as their total starts.

    OK… yes… I know … you will tell me that the era of running every two weeks is just gone forever… Is it that those old-day horses got better food as the fanatics of organic and gluten free foods always claim? Are modern Thoroughbreds weaker? or the best ones are retired early depriving them to show their durability at the highest level?

    Anyway, the bright side of Sovereignty skipping the Preakness is that the championship race becomes more interesting now with fresh horses in the arena. Even if your goal is the 3-year-old championship and your horse wins the Derby and the Travers the title is not warranted (remember Street Sense).

    I wonder what trainers like Ken McPeek, D. Wayne Lukas, Brad Cox, Chad Brown, Bob Baffert, Steven Asmussen, Doug O’Neill and Shug McGaughey III would have done in this case.

    It is very likely they will say the usual “we let the horse tell us what to do” … but I reckon if a superior equine athlete could talk he would likely say: “Yes … I want to be a Triple Crown Champion”

    • Nelson Maan on May 7, 2025 at 6:33 pm

      Disclaimer: the post above assumes that Sovereignty is totally healthy and in peak form after the Derby and that he will very likely be retired after the Breeder’s Cup…

      • Jeff on May 8, 2025 at 6:25 am

        Thanks Nelson, if the horse is sound and they don’t run in American Classic, I just call this poor sportsmanship. Pathetic really….

        • Mike Relva on May 8, 2025 at 9:11 am

          Please.

        • Mike Relva on May 8, 2025 at 9:34 pm

          You’re feeling the sting,cause I stated four months ago your barn wouldn’t prevail.

      • Davids on May 8, 2025 at 9:35 pm

        Nelson, Godolphin (under Darley Stables) has already won the Preakness Stakes with Bernardini. If this had not happened they probably would have run Sovereignty in the Preakness Stakes.

        • Nelson Maan on May 9, 2025 at 12:41 am

          Yes David … Godolphin has won the three jewels of the American Triple Crown with Bernardini, Essential Quality and now Sovereignty.

          I have no problem with them preserving Sovereignty for next year’s DWC. Juddmonte did the same with Mandaloun skipping the Preakness to ensure being ready for the Saudi Cup.

          My real problem is the loud wave of “experts” swaying us think that the two-week break is a big problem. Why?

          Before Sovereignty only 6 out of the last 55 Derby winners skipped the Preakness.

          Gatp del Sol’s trainer, Eddie Gregson, convinced Arthur Hancock III that the short rest was not right at that time. Gato del Sol ran second in the Belmont 14 lengths behind Conquistador Cielo who BTW had won the Metropolitan Handicap only six (6) days before that romp.

          Spend a Buck did it for a millionaire bonus. Grindstone due to injury back in 1996. 32 years passed without any Derby winner dodging the Preakness until Country House suffered from a virus infection.

          Again, Mandaloun was in the same situation as Sovereignty being owned by an international powerhouse that aimed to the middle east rich stakes.

          You know well about Rich Strike case.

          Then you have Todd Pletcher with a dismal record in the Preakness but winning four Belmont Stakes making us believe that five-week between races is ideal. Why?

          Were is the scientific evidence that a two-week break impairs the performance of a true champion.

          Why the inhability of some trainers to restore a horse form in two weeks or a horse not responding to a push forward is now considered standard?

          If the answer is that modern Thoroughbreds are weaker then let’s wait for the strong ones to show their class. Are the Japanese horses considered weak now? If not… look how the “weak” Americans are defeating them on dirt.

          Can you imagine the trainers of Secretariat, Seattle Slew, Affirmed, Alydar, Spectacular Bid, Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Easy Goer, and American Pharoah believing that two-week break is a big hurdle to overcome and decided to skip the Preakness?

          They would have killed greatness right there.

          What some people in the media are proposing is like having some boxing analysts pushing to change the bouts to only 3 rounds just because some could not go longer than that.

          Weakness is no reason to change the rules of the sports.

          Who said that achieving Greatness is supossed to be easy or a Carte de Menu?

          Disclaimer: this is just my opinion

          • Davids on May 9, 2025 at 1:59 am

            Nelson, you make excellent points on keeping the status quo and historic record in tact.

            I’m more pragmatic, I feel shifting the Triple Crown races around to ‘create’ more Triple Crown races to save the sport in the US, then so be it.

            Nonetheless, I wouldn’t consider the winners of an altered Triple Crown structure to be in the same league as those of the past but that’s just me.

            • Nelson Maan on May 9, 2025 at 11:58 am

              I am with you in creation if you want real change… I once proposed the Western Triple Crown to rival the traditional one in the East… LOL.

              What bothers me is that many experts had me convinced that the reason horses needed 4 to 5 weeks rest is because the use of Lasix…

              But they keep saying the same for all these Derby prospects who run without Lasix.

              I really don’t think that running in two weeks just once in your horse career will damage his real potential to endure at Stakes levels … Curlin, Animal Kingdom, Mucho Macho Man, California Chrome, Goldencents, War of Will, Optimizer, Gunnevera, and National Treasure were let to prove that.

              Anyway, let’s see if Journalism enters the Preakness to have some anecdotal evidence down the road…

              • Davids on May 9, 2025 at 8:22 pm

                Yes, Nelson, I remember when there was a suggestion to move the Preakness to Santa Anita in the 90s.

                Ah, the removal of Lasix, that was supposed to result in horses bleeding to death on the racetrack. Mind you, in hot humid environments it should be an accepted prophylactic.

                I think it’s more of a case that trainers believe that running in the Preakness is a gross disadvantage in winning the Belmont Stakes.

                Moreover, losing in the Preakness to say a colt that couldn’t get in the Kentucky Derby field has somewhat dethroned the ‘king.’ Too much to lose rather than too much to gain, possibly?



    • Mike Relva on May 7, 2025 at 6:41 pm

      Nelson, your comments illustrate great interest of racing. I’m always about doing best for the horse, however if Sov. ran and won Preakness and again Belmont some will say not a true TC. Damned if you do, damned if you don’t. For myself, no problem skipping Preakness. M.D. never been right since pushed into Belmont after losing. McPeek isn’t my kind of trainer, Mott is.

      • Nelson Maan on May 7, 2025 at 11:05 pm

        Thanks for your reply Mike.

        It is not a sure thing that skipping the Preakness would extend the career of your horse.

        To your point, if your horse is a true champion who won the Derby then it would be easier for him (in theory) to win the Preakness. Your horse has just defeated the best nineteen 3-year-olds. The new shooters in the Preakness are generally horses that were not good enough to be in the Derby in the first place or more effective at 9 furlongs. So, for two weeks your trainer does not have to do anything with your horse… his winning form is there already! Again, the Preakness would be a good test to the real quality of the horse.

        Yes… no problem skipping the Preakness but how can anyone say that something is difficult if they don’t try it…

        • Mike Relva on May 8, 2025 at 12:36 am

          Again, good points as always. Will state usually part of the Preakness field are horses who didn’t run two weeks earlier.

          • ChiefsCrown on May 8, 2025 at 4:11 pm

            IN MOTT WE TRUST!….I think Bill is basically a savant about horse racing. He’s a
            brilliant horse trainer who knows when and where to place his runners.

            • Mike Relva on May 8, 2025 at 7:28 pm

              Correct Chief. Many other high profile trainers could learn from him.

        • Dominic J Dinatale on May 9, 2025 at 9:13 am

          Its not about winning the preakness…its about Belmont Stakes, Haskell/julim dsndy, travers, BC CLASSIC…yes soveriegnty would likely win the preakness but thays not guaranteed….how did Mystik Dan do last year after running 3x in 5 weeks?

    • Lynda King on May 7, 2025 at 6:44 pm

      Nelson, as I see it Godolphin is in it for the long game, as in coming back to race at 4 or travel to Dubai to compete in the Word Cup. Example: Thunder Snow

      Sovereignty will no doubt stand at Godolphin after his racing career. He doesn’t to build a “stallion resume”. In his favor as well is Bernadini being his dam sire.

      Journalism already has a stud deal. American Pharaoh had one as did Justify while still racing.

      I have no answers about the timing or spacing between the 3 TC races. Sometimes I think there should be 3 weeks between amd other times, I think “what about tradition”.

      If there is a change, it will not be the first time historically speaking. I do not, however, agree with Repole to move the Preakness to after the Belmont.

      3 different tracks, 3 different distances, 3 different layouts of the tracks is the challenge is it not?

      • William D on May 7, 2025 at 7:33 pm

        Folks, are we breeding fragile horses? Would anyone have ever said that Dr Fager was a wimp? It would be completely wrong to change the time sequence between the 3 Triple Crown races. It would make comparisons impossible. Let us keep the legend as it stands.

        • Mike Relva on May 7, 2025 at 8:53 pm

          Because of breeding for speed instead of soundness this is why fragile horses are the standard, instead of horses who like John Henry ran 83 races.

          • Terri Zeitz on May 8, 2025 at 5:48 pm

            Mike Relva–so true. These horses can not endure what thoroughbreds did years ago; one or two weeks rest was normal when horses were more sound.

            • William D on May 8, 2025 at 8:20 pm

              The other issue is the big money to be made via stallion services. Some show up as passers of good genetics and others are a wash. It seems to me that both McKinzie and Tiz the Law are passing on stamina and soundness. It will be interesting to find out which one of them comes out on the top in 2025 and then which of their progeny is sound and competing at age 4 and up. Maybe some of the 3 and 4 year old races should be more than 1 !/2 miles. MIght be an eye opener.

            • Mike Relva on May 9, 2025 at 12:43 am

              Thanks Terri! Enjoy your comments.

              • Terri Zeitz on May 9, 2025 at 4:38 am

                Thanks and you are welcome Mike Relva. I enjoy your comments as well.



        • Katy on May 8, 2025 at 8:26 pm

          Sports change. Sometimes it’s good, sometimes it isn’t.

          Baseball: when was the last time you saw a starter pitch a complete game? DH for everyone (ew!). No one bunts anymore (lame). The swings are designed for maximum lift to hit… dingers! Thought I would hate the pitch clock, but that’s been fine.

          Basketball: would you go back to no three-pointers? Not me, because I love a shooter!

          Football: tackles are nothing compared to what they were when I was a kid, and then we found out that all that fun violence was ruining people’s lives. Running backs are considered a dime a dozen – even when they are game changers. The draft is as big of a deal as anything. Who cares!? Seen thousands of boys flame out in the pros.

          For all of the above: the playoffs. They go on and on AND ON. Remember when you won the pennant by being the best team with the best record in your league? That was simple.

          I can’t say any of the changes are BETTER (except for the 3’s). The point is, rules and schedules and traditions evolve in sports. It seems to be OK. Although I like Max Scherzer, Verlander, Eovaldi, Sale, etc. and admire their bodies of work, they ain’t no Greg Maddux. Or Koufax. Or even Sutton! There’s a reason the award is named for Cy Young. He is what they should aspire to, and very few have been remotely close to equal.

          I don’t know what they should do about the Preakness, but I don’t think anyone should be afraid to change things. As it is, the race could be in danger of dying if they don’t. Things are different. Safety is different. Medication rules are different. Heck, y’all remember Rick Dutrow talking about giving Winstrol to Big Brown – and was it legal? Yes it was. Is it better for the horses to run WITHOUT performance enhancing meds, overly frequent joint injections, or other potential masking agents? I think so.

          I think if they decide they want to leave it as-is, they can entice a Derby winner’s connections by adding a large bonus for a Derby winner capturing a double crown, like the (never collected) $5 million bonus of the 90s for a TC.

          If they push the race to a later date, the horses will potentially have a new challenge not usually experienced to extremes on Preakness Day: heat. But would it be cool to have the Preakness around the 4th of July, in the birthplace of “The Star Spangled Banner?” Or shortly after, when baseball shuts down for a week for the All-Star game. They could work some angles… and it might not be the end of the world.

      • Nelson Maan on May 8, 2025 at 12:02 am

        Thanks for your reply Lynda.

        You are right in that Godolphin just needs to preserve his Derby winner as they can retire him anytime now.

        You bring a good point about aiming at the Dubai World Cup with Sovereignty. I can understand that they have already mapped out how to get there and the Preakness is an unecessary milestone for them…

        Again, it is about their priorities and how they assess risks; but on the other hand I see the American Triple Crown as the ultimate feat that sounds more compelling in any stallion resume … but again, you are porbably right in that Godolphin does not need “shining resumes” for its stallions as they don’t sell.

        Repole is proposing shifting the Preakness to the end because NYRA does not want to change the Belmont… he is just thinking “out of the box” to solve the conundrum.

        The debate between the traditionalists and the modernists does not seem to be resolved anytime soon…

    • Dewey Hebert on May 7, 2025 at 9:15 pm

      Nelson, you’ve covered the triple crown spacing and the impact that it has on the Preakness very well. I, too, am sad to see that the appeal of the triple crown is wanning. Yet, no one seems to want to pull the trigger and increase the spacing of the tc races. We have to at least give it a try. It can’t hurt, it can only help to restore the Preakness as the immediate goal after the Derby whether you’re going for the triple crown or not.

      If changes are made in spacing, I assume that the tracks involved (Pimlico and Belmont) would be the ones making that decision? Perhaps hearing from the fans on the subject would influence their decision. I think they should put out a poll to ascertain how many fans, trainers and owners are in favor of more spacing or not. Let’s get some feedback on the matter.

      • Rob Austin on May 7, 2025 at 10:12 pm

        If you change the timing you kill the tradition. The Triple Crown is supposed to be difficult. Pletcher never could capture that second leg. I love trainers like Drysdale and Mott, but they will never win a Triple Crown. Fusiachi Pegasus couldn’t get it done and Sovereignty will never be given the chance. If you want a warrior, make a sturdier horse, stop babying them.

        • Nelson Maan on May 7, 2025 at 11:31 pm

          You are right Rob.

          They are not giving good horses any chance to prove their full potential because the more talent they show the more OVERPROTECTED they are.

          The last warrior was California Chrome and he got his chances just because his unfashionable pedigree.

          As I said many times before, the breeder’s big bucks are changing horse racing to racing of sires (racing of number of babies) … durability and extended racing careers are substituted by finding the next Mr. Prospector as soon as possible.

          • Todd Vaughn on May 8, 2025 at 7:14 am

            Godolphin and Mott are seemingly bringing a bit of an elitist tone to this whole thing. Maybe both entities have banked some goodwill over the years, but not running Sovereignty deprives racing and fans of what should be reasonably expected of a Derby winner.

            • Sally E. on May 8, 2025 at 9:30 am

              I agree with the sentiment that the fans of racing deserve to see Sovereignty come back in the Preakness. A rematch between Journalism and Sovereignty would be the Affirmed versus Alydar for the new gen of fans. If you want to build up racing then you have to provide the fans with the true depth of the sport in a meaningful way. Mott sending Sovereignty to only the Belmont, and then perhaps the Travers means that the depth of racing just got a lot shallower. I am all for the dawn of a new triple by which to measure three year-olds’ racing greatness, and I call it the Triple Diadem. Derby, Belmont & Travers. If a horse can win all three of those they get a new type of crown that literally means “sovereignty.”

              • Dewey Hebert on May 8, 2025 at 10:30 am

                Sally, I’d be open to revising the Triple Crown to add the Travers and drop the Preakness. The Preakness is ill positioned for today’s 3 yos. thus diminishing the quality of the fields in recent years. In my mind, the Preakness is a weak link to the Triple Crown compared to the Derby and Belmont. Adding the Travers would ensure the best 3 yo. classics for a true and tougher test for a Triple Crown winner.

                The Preakness has had its day. It’s time for a new Triple Crown era. As for the traditionalists, I share your feelings about the accomplishments of former Triple Crown champions. Their records are part of horseracing’s history and their legacy endures forever. We must, however, turn the page and play the hand that’s dealt to us. This is not your grandfather’s game anymore.



        • Mike Relva on May 8, 2025 at 12:39 am

          And Asmussen has never won a Derby! My comments fifteen years ago was he never would.

          • Mike Relva on May 8, 2025 at 12:41 am

            Nelson the above comment intended for Rob.

            • Rob Austin on May 8, 2025 at 9:21 am

              You’re right, that streak continues too.

              • Mike Relva on May 8, 2025 at 7:31 pm

                Thanks Rob!



        • Dominic J Dinatale on May 8, 2025 at 8:51 am

          RIGHT ON!!! The Triple Crown is jus fine but caliber of horses in general has gone way downhill…breeders need to smarten up…

          • Mike Relva on May 8, 2025 at 9:12 am

            Dominic you’re spot on!

      • Nelson Maan on May 7, 2025 at 11:19 pm

        Thanks for your reply Dewey.

        I am affraid NYRA is the roadbloack to implement any change and that any poll would not be more important than their intended profits.

        Rob Austin is right saying that the modern attitude is overprotecting good horses because everyone is affraid of losing millions of dollars in stud fees.

        We have disccused this topic many times in this forum but I believe the real problem is that the modern Thoroughbred industry is gravitating around the big bucks of breeding… running became just an excuse to quickly make a potential good stallion.

        They should STOP keeping every Graded horse under “bubble wraps” for the sake of better possible stud deals.

        • Jiffy on May 8, 2025 at 12:35 am

          This is an excellent and important discussion. Thank you, Nelson, for starting it. I’m a traditionalist. I don’t want to tamper with the Triple Crown, and I don’t think there’s any reason to. The problem isn’t the races. It might be the horses–maybe they are not as strong as they used to be–but I think more likely it’s the people who make the decisions and too often, as you pointed out, those decisions are based on future stud deals. It’s interesting to note that the two geldings who won Derbies in this century, Funny Cide and Mine That Bird, ran in all three of the races and performed creditably in all of them. They did not retain that form, but I don’t believe that was because of the Triple Crown–I think they just peaked at the right time. Barclay Tagg, who trained Funny Cide, is very protective of his horses–he would never do anything that he thought would hurt them–but he went to the Preakness and Funny Cide won by ten lengths. With stud fees out of the picture, he and Jack Knowlton could concentrate on the sport and they chose to try for the Triple Crown. They didn’t get it but it was a memorable effort. I don’t know the motivation of Bill Mott and Godolphin–maybe they have a good reason–but I’m sorry they made the choice that they did, and I’m even sorrier that Baeza’s people made that choice. There’s no Triple Crown involved there, but I would love to have cheered for him in the Preakness.

          • Nelson Maan on May 8, 2025 at 1:05 am

            I second all your points Jiffy.

            As a fan I always yearn for another Shared Belief who can stay healthy as long as possible… Praying for Burnham Square to develop great form in the next months …

            Whitmore was the last gelding emerging from the Derby who became a fan’s favorite. Best Pal was one of a kind…

          • Rob Austin on May 8, 2025 at 9:28 am

            Thanks Jiffy, that is an interesting note about the geldings. Trainers are forced to turn them into warriors. The money ball of racing. I loved Whitmore. Who would have thought he would be a great sprinter?

            • Mike Relva on May 9, 2025 at 8:05 am

              Loved that horse!

    • TommyMcD on May 8, 2025 at 11:03 am

      I’ve been thinking about your post. I think that the Derby and the Belmont are bigger than ever. The Preakness? Not so much. Your point about the Triple Crown as a whole, the 3-race series, is lacking because of the Preakness. The weakest link in the chain.
      I hope we don’t get another 8-horse field this year.
      If Journalism runs, he will probably be 3-5 without Sovereignty and Baeza.
      It could actually be a better betting race if Journalism doesn’t run. Without the other two of the big-3, I hope he doesn’t run and that we get another showdown between them on Belmont Day at Saratoga.

      • Rob Austin on May 8, 2025 at 4:36 pm

        Yes, let’s kick the Preakness to the curb, and when we get our real Belmont back, we have the Kentucky Derby-Belmont-Travers(Triple Crown)-Breeder’s Cup Classic(Grand Slam). Three year-olds run for the Gand Slam and 4 and ups for Pride and Glory only.

  40. Jean Gladstone on May 7, 2025 at 2:39 pm

    Once again, Steve, you write the absolute best recap. Thank you for the background of Darley and Godolphin. I been confused over the years and now I understand.

  41. Michelle H on May 7, 2025 at 2:14 pm

    Thanks for another wonderful column, Steve. I enjoyed your breakdown of the field every week during the prep season and I already look forward to next year’s crop which will be emerging before we know it…

    It really did seem like the cream rose to the top, as you said. One of the more remarkable rides that stuck out to me in the Derby was the #3 Final Gambit. He not only was disrupted by the sharp move Citizen Bull made out of the gate but he also dealt with the track conditions valiantly despite never actually racing on dirt before, let alone on the extreme slop. And to come from desperately last place, take all the kickback, have such a sharp turn of foot, only to get bumped out way wide by Baeza down the stretch and end up fourth is amazing to me.. Not bad for only 4 lifetime starts before the Derby, too. This is one to watch going forward. And he’s another example of the versatility of Not This Time as a sire.

  42. Bill Dawson on May 7, 2025 at 12:42 pm

    RE: Peter Pan Stakes (Belmont Big A, Saturday, 5-10, R11)
    Chad Brown has an impressive first out winner in Lordship, by Gun Runner, entered in referenced race that could go off at double digit odds. Hill Road, Uncaged, McAfee and Captain Cook appear to be the top four entered in the race.
    Captain Cook won the Withers back in February but was soundly beaten by Rodrequez in the Wood, on April 5th. I’ll give him another shot as my top pick in the Peter Pan, and key him on top in my superfecta p/w wager, with Hill Road, Uncaged, McAfee and Lordship underneath in the 2nd, 3rd and 4th slots.
    That is: 8/ 4,5,6,10/ 4,5,6,10/ 4,5,6,10. In addition, I’ll flip that over, and use 4,5,6,10 on top with 8 in the 2nd, and 4,5,6,10 in the 3rd and 4th slots.
    That is: 4,5,6,10/ 8/ 4,5,6,10/ 4,5,6,10
    Safe trips to all.

    • Nelson Maan on May 8, 2025 at 1:12 am

      Thanks for the lead up Bill.

      I am using your same formula but substituting 6-Uncaged with 1-Vassimo and 10-Lordhisp with 3-Surfside Moon.

      I hope you keep your winning streak!
      Good luck

      • Bill Dawson on May 8, 2025 at 3:37 pm

        Thanks for the reply, Nelson
        Yeah, I was on the fence with Surfside Moon and Vassimo, with Irad riding.
        With respect to class, Lordship is probably up against it, but I love his pedigree with a ton of stamina on his dam’s side. He could be a special colt moving forward.
        I liked the way he rated off the pace and made a strong closing kick to win at first asking. As I expected, Captain Cook has been listed as the favorite at 2-1 on the morning line. He’s definitely the horse to beat in the Peter Pan, IMO.
        Good luck with your superfecta, Nelson.

        • Bill Dawson on May 8, 2025 at 5:01 pm

          Edit
          Nelson, after digging into Vassimo’s pedigree, past performances, connections and workout regime, I decided to add him underneath, in my superfecta p/w wager. I am concerned that he hasn’t worked since April 25th, which could be by design, or he had an issue following that last work.
          That said, my new supers will be as follows:
          8/ 1,4,5,6,10/ 1,4,5,6,10/ 1,4,5,6,10
          1,4,5,6,10/ 8/ 1,4,5,6,10/ 1,4,5,6,10
          Thanks for your input, Nelson.

  43. TommyMcD on May 7, 2025 at 3:52 am

    Some people are criticizing Bill Mott for skipping the Preakness with Sovereignty. It has been my observation that Godolphin makes the decisions regarding their horses. If Mott made the decision, I trust that it was in the best interest of the horse. Bill Mott had made the comment after the Derby that Sovereignty came out of the race with a cut or some other minor ailment on one of his legs. Better safe than sorry.
    If the end game is the Eclipse Award at the end of the season, Godolphin could be looking at the big picture. Sovereignty has the advantage now. But if he were to go and win the Preakness with Baeza and Journalism waiting for him at Saratoga with 5 weeks rest, things could change fast.

    • Mike Relva on May 7, 2025 at 9:32 am

      Agreed Tommy! Not a bad idea skipping Preakness, not only dance this summer.

    • Matthew W on May 7, 2025 at 12:32 pm

      I don’t know anybody who thinks it’s better to come back in two weeks than five weeks….so that point is moot—what is the best interest of the sport? The Triple Crown is the biggest event in Horse Racing—I haven’t seen break Downs, in The Preakness…I’ve seen grumpy owners, for having to face fresher horses, after winning the Derby and Preakness……to win the Triple Crown TIDAY—a horse needs to beat 19 in The Derby and then win two more times against fresher horses—instead of scheming the Crown…..I honor American Pharoah and Justify, for doing what no horses have done—it’s harder to do it today……but it can be done, and twice…..

      • Matthew W on May 7, 2025 at 1:26 pm

        Conclusion: Sovereignty is happy, healthy and back to work—Senator McCain said “Call it a banana, if you want”—I call it a Triple Crown snub….

  44. Amy Hurley on May 7, 2025 at 3:51 am

    Well, Steve, you got your storybook – er, movie-like, KY Derby finish. Congratulations on having identified the top 2 so long ago, and then sticking with them. And congrats also to Ms. Murphy for doing such a fine job breaking and schooling the young standouts.

    Any ideas on how to incentivize Derby horses – not just the winner – to run back in the Preakness. I’d be OK with a longer time between each of the 3 races, but I don’t like Repole’s idea of running the Belmont before the Preakness. I think that could result in even fewer participants from the first two legs running in the Preakness.

    • Steve Haskin on May 7, 2025 at 10:28 pm

      Thanks Amy. I have my thoughts on it but possibly in a column. I’ll see.

  45. Nelson Maan on May 7, 2025 at 12:59 am

    I am glad Steve’s recap of the 2025 Derby touched on Godolphin’s history in America.

    Godolphin’s strategy of seeking the coveted Kentucky Derby via UAE was not successful but also breeding and running in America had not rendered the desired results either.

    This past week Godolphin enjoyed its greatest achievements since its banner years of 2018 (Masar winning the Epsom Derby and Cross Counter the Melbourne Cup) and 2019 (with the exploits of Thunder Snow, Kiamichi and Pinatubo).

    A quadruple Classic win in two continents will probably never happen again.

    Godolphin’s best Derby peformances were a 4th with Frosted in 2015 and a 3rd with Essential Quality in 2021.

    Between those two years the royal blue was plagued with bad luck. Mishaps also happened with Midshipman and Vale of York in 2009 and 2010.

    Steve recalled the heartbreaking spectacle of Thunder Snow in 2017. In 2018 Avery Island looked like a sure Derby horse after winning the Nashua, finishing 2nd in the Remsen, and winning the Withers; but an injury in March practically ended his career. The same year Enticed got injured in the Derby.

    The promising Endorsed missed the 2019 trail by an injury in the Champagne Stakes.

    In 2020 Maxfield was one of the Derby favorites but suffered a condylar fracture while training for the Blue Grass. Also in 2020, the talented Mystic Guide debuted late and missed the Triple Crown (did not run in qualifying Stakes).

    After three years of Derby absence Godolphin had its strong lineup yet with Sovereignty, East Avenue, Poster and First Resort (now on the bench). The breeding and racing powerhouse finally got its first garland of roses after ten bids.

    Many of you may remember the scene of military helicopters hovering over Nad Al Sheba to dry the track so the 1997 Dubai World Cup could be run. That kind of commitment and passion for horse racing is really unmatched.

    Sheik Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum and his family deserve all the success in the world out of their operations spanning four continents… and who knows if the next Japanese Derby winner will be from Godolphin Japan…

    When the sunset of horse racing is hitting the helpless faces in Florida and California we should tell all those influential people who genuinely love horses and horse racing “thank you for all you do … we deeply apreciate it!”

    God bless the people who share their good fortune with the Thoroughbred industry.

    • Steve Haskin on May 7, 2025 at 7:52 am

      Great post Nelson. Thank you.

      • Nelson Maan on May 7, 2025 at 4:01 pm

        Thanks Steve… I always appreciate your feedback!

    • Jean Gladstone on May 7, 2025 at 2:47 pm

      Thank you, Nelson.

      • Nelson Maan on May 7, 2025 at 4:01 pm

        Thanks for your reply Jean.

  46. Todd Vaughn on May 6, 2025 at 9:36 pm

    I think Godolphin and Mott will get a pass for skipping the Preakness due to status/reputation. If he’s sound, i think he should run. The old time sportsmen would run, but everything now is about stud value. Can’t soil the franchise. My opinion will probably not be well received, but i have a hard time remembering that horse who ran a couple of times. Oh yeah, Flightline.

    • Mike Relva on May 6, 2025 at 9:46 pm

      Agree regarding Flightline. Connections needed to run him at five, providing sound.

  47. Matthew W on May 6, 2025 at 7:52 pm

    Maybe they would have run–had the Belmont been it’s traditional 12 panels—and I get that….I do believe in tradition,,, but right now it’s not the traditional Triple Crown..

  48. Bill Dawson on May 6, 2025 at 6:06 pm

    I thoroughly enjoyed your Derby Recap, and your thoughts on Sovereignty’s Godolphin connections. They are a class act as is Bill Mott and Junior Alvarado.
    I want to thank you for all your hard work on this year’s Derby trail. You were spot on having Sovereignty and Journalism ranked evenly for the past several weeks. In addition, I want to thank you for providing those Thoro-Graph numbers, and how we should interpret them, as they progress or in some cases, regress. That was the reason I was so high on Baeza coming out of the SA Derby with a “0”, and I loved his very impressive pedigree. I was fortunate to hit my Futures $50.00 exacta box with Journalism and Sovereignty was paid $2,825.00 and hit two superfectas that paid
    $1,682.00 each. My total winnings: $6,189.00.
    Based on all of your informative information, I feel that I owe you some of the winnings.
    Now, it’s on to the Preakness.
    Many thanks, Steve.

    • Steve Haskin on May 6, 2025 at 8:31 pm

      Thanks Bill. My consultants fee is 10 percent.

      • Bill Dawson on May 6, 2025 at 8:43 pm

        You’re welcome, Steve.
        I’ll discuss it with my account. 🙂

        • Bill Dawson on May 6, 2025 at 8:43 pm

          Edit: my accountant

      • Gary on May 8, 2025 at 8:37 pm

        OH no Steve please don’t go there.
        Only the Big Guy collects 10% (Just kidding).

        • Bill Dawson on May 9, 2025 at 12:51 pm

          Good one, Gary
          The “Big Guy” got caught with his hand in the cookie jar, but fortunately common sense prevailed this past November. 🙂

      • Ben Isaacs on May 12, 2025 at 11:57 pm

        Steve – I always enjoyed our times together be it with Bobby Frankel – Baffert – LeRoy NEIMAN – or just analyzing the Race on the Churchill backside – and I just wanted to say that for over 40 years your writing has inspired me & you actually are writing better than ever !

        That being said I reached out to Leonard last week – I must have missed the Derby resulting Thoro- graphs & inquiring minds depend on me to hopefully find – I’m sure you probably published but please kindly email or Reply my friend 🌹

  49. Mary on May 6, 2025 at 5:41 pm

    I hit the superfecta. I would like to thank the breeders for their thoughtful breeding of these horses. The bottom of their pedigrees is inundated with stamina. Pedigree analysis is challenging, but I enjoy every moment of delving into their ancestry.

    • Ms Blacktype on May 6, 2025 at 6:29 pm

      Congratulations, Mary! As I told my husband, I had the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th finishers correct. Just have to remember to take the horse I DIDN’T PICK and put him on top.

    • Roberta Greevey on May 6, 2025 at 7:34 pm

      You are so right, Mary. Wonderful pedigrees in this Derby. The dam side is often ignored. Congratulations on the superfecta! WOW

  50. Derek Manthey on May 6, 2025 at 5:21 pm

    Steve, your opening paragraph summed up the Derby perfectly. I’m happy that the Sheik finally got the prize after so much treasure and effort he has put into the sport we love . I didn’t see the Sheik there at Churchill. He deserved an ovation from the crowd for Sovereighnty’s win and everything else he has done for the sport! Thanks Steve

    • Jean Gladstone on May 7, 2025 at 2:50 pm

      As I understand it, the Sheik was in England for the 2000 and 1000 Guineas.

      • Jiffy on May 8, 2025 at 12:48 am

        Does he still come to races in this country? I remember when he used to be everywhere–yearling sales, draws for post positions, races, whatever. But after he became ruler of Dubai, I don’t recall seeing him much at all. It’s understandable that he wouldn’t have the time that he once did, but most world leaders get away once in a while, and this was the race that he has always wanted. But however he may have watched it, I hope it gave him the pleasure he was anticipating.

  51. Betsy on May 6, 2025 at 4:42 pm

    David and Nelson, Heart is on his way! Janie said he’s thriving – he’s had a tough schedule, so clearly he’s a hardy colt. I know Daytona finished last, but Heart hasn’t reached his peak – I think he’ll run well

    I hate that Saffie is riding – I just think am American jock familiar with Pimlico, also a stronger rider, would have been better

    • Steve Haskin on May 6, 2025 at 8:37 pm

      He’s got a good shot if he keeps a straight course. I think he may have just drifted to the open space .when the third horse dropped back. But that cost him the race IMO

      • Betsy on May 6, 2025 at 11:34 pm

        Steve, you’re probably right considering ke lost by barely a nose. He hasn’t put it all together just yet – I’m looking forward to seeing when he finally does!

    • Davids on May 8, 2025 at 9:20 pm

      Hi Betsy, how is the holiday? Where have you been this week? Don’t forget the French 2,000 Guineas and 1,000 Guineas this Sunday at ParisLongchamp.

      Yes, I’m not sure Saffie is the best choice for Heart of Honor in the Preakness Stakes but she does know the colt well and the colt is trained by a European.

      Fingers crossed.

  52. Karren on May 6, 2025 at 4:26 pm

    Great recap, Steve, especially with your prior Bridlewood story. When I saw Sovereignty in the post parade with Harley, I thought for sure he was going to win. Placed a win ticket on him, having forgotten that I had bet a win on him earlier in the day, so cashed 2 nice win tickets (and the exacta, tri, and oaks derby double). So thank you, Steve for the one two punch of Sovereignty and Journalism. Not surprised Sovereignty is skipping the Preakness. Winning the triple this year would probably come with an asterisk due to the shortened Belmont. Hopefully he will retain his form and win many more races, unlike some of the recent Derby winners. Will the boo birds be out in force like they were when Rich Strike skipped the Preakness? Who knows, all I can say is that it was a great Derby!

    • Roberta Greevey on May 6, 2025 at 7:38 pm

      Karren, it WAS a great Derby! With or without a Triple Crown, the Belmont Stakes had an asterisk last year, has one this year, and will probably have one next year. It’s a shame, but the good news is that Saratoga has a temporary big race and Belmont Park will be new and improved!

    • Steve Haskin on May 6, 2025 at 8:39 pm

      It was, Karren. Thank you.

  53. TommyMcD on May 6, 2025 at 3:56 pm

    With Sovereignty skipping the Preakness, will the race become a secondary Peter Pan as a prep for the Belmont at Saratoga? Only with a bigger purse.
    I wonder if any of the horses entered in Saturday’s Peter Pan will scratch and run in the Preakness instead? Baeza is already targeting the Belmont. If Journalism also passes the Preakness, and Michael McCarthy is talking about running Bullard, it could be a bigger field for the Preakness. A field with others like Bullard. Wait! That’s harsh. I figure that there will still be a few horses better than Bullard. Bullard might hit the board though.

    • Mary on May 6, 2025 at 5:54 pm

      It worked for Arcangelo. He won the Peter Pan and thereafter, the Belmont Stakes. I don’t think the horses entered in the Peter Pan will scratch, it’s a better step to the Belmont. I will forever love Arcangelo, the three-year old champion.

  54. Dewey Hebert on May 6, 2025 at 2:52 pm

    Great job on the wrap up Steve. I especially enjoyed your detailed back story on Godolphin and their history of trying to add the Derby to their list of Classic wins. They worked hard to build a world class operation and taking this year’s KD was richly deserved.

    Not surprised that Sovereignty is skipping the Preakness. I wish more Derby winners would do the same as I am a strong proponent of spacing out another week between the Derby, Preakness and Belmont. For today’s racehorses, who aren’t as durable as previous generations, 3 weeks and 4 weeks spacing between the triple crown races would make sense. JMO

    • Roberta Greevey on May 6, 2025 at 7:41 pm

      I agree, Dewey. The two week and three week spacing started when horses typically raced even more frequently than every two or three weeks. Times change, and smart people in professional sports make the needed adjustments.

    • Steve Haskin on May 6, 2025 at 8:41 pm

      Thank you Dewey.

  55. Bill Glavin on May 6, 2025 at 2:48 pm

    Steve, thanks so much for this article. As usual, all of your faithful readers learned something they didn’t know.. And major kudos to identifying Journalism and Sovereignty as the chart toppers every week leading up to the Derby. I’ m astounded Sovereignty was almost 8-1! Last year, you alerted all of us to Mystik Dan, and some of us (including me) didn’t listen. As I cashed my exacta, on Saturday, I give you a silent thanks. Now I’ll do it here..THANKS STEVE!

    • Steve Haskin on May 6, 2025 at 8:42 pm

      Thanks very much, Bill. I appreciate it.

  56. arlingtonfan on May 6, 2025 at 2:33 pm

    No Derby feels complete until we read your wrap-up, Steve. Thank you for providing the historical context to Sovereignty’s win. I’m actually kind of glad he’s skipping the Preakness, not because of any views on whether he would have won or lost but because I appreciate the team mulling over what path would be best for the horse. I’m sure it wasn’t an easy decision.

    • Steve Haskin on May 6, 2025 at 8:44 pm

      Thanks so much. The Triple Crown sure is changing.

  57. Gary Beck on May 6, 2025 at 2:12 pm

    Steve, thank you for all of insightful articles this spring. It is alwats a pleasure to soak up your insights and hear the back stories of everyone involved!

    • Steve Haskin on May 6, 2025 at 8:44 pm

      Thank you Gary.

  58. Jerry Lillard on May 6, 2025 at 2:08 pm

    Like I said last week Dosage Index still works all the non qualifying finished way behind the top 3. The tri way chalky but the Pick 3’s 4’s & 5’s were decent & add the fact I had a .20 Pick 6 payout of $2064 along with the Future Wagers & exacta pays a generous day of $7287.00 Yup Dosage Baby Still Lives just ask Citizen Bull & his 9.0 he’s still blowing bubbles. Congrats to Godolphin & Bill Mott for getting the just prize, Bill this win carry’s no asterisk *

    • Ms Blacktype on May 6, 2025 at 6:33 pm

      Congrats, Jerry! I dream of actually picking a combination like that. Given how rarely I bet, it would be sheer luck.

    • Roberta Greevey on May 6, 2025 at 7:30 pm

      Hi, Jerry. My late husband and I loved to follow the dosage. But it stopped being updated at some point. may have been picked up by someone else but I think they’ve mostly added European sires. I read that Sovereignty had a DI of 4.33. That wouldn’t qualify him according to the old rules, right?

  59. Hammer on May 6, 2025 at 2:05 pm

    Hi Steve,

    As usual the “BEST” Derby recap written. A great race and deserving winner too bad he’s not running in the Preakness but not surprising as Mott always puts the horse first. Baeza looks like he could along with Journalism and Sovereignty make for a memorable Belmont. Let’s hop they all stay healthy.

    Best,
    Hammer

    • Steve Haskin on May 6, 2025 at 2:11 pm

      Thank you Hammer.

  60. Marc Winston on May 6, 2025 at 1:39 pm

    Nice piece on Gofolphin and their quest to win the Derby and their contribution to racing worldwide. I’m curious about the sheets numbers which were so important in your analysis and your prophetic interpretation of Sovereignty’s likely peak performance. Can you share the numbers for the first four finishers?

  61. Steve Haskin on May 6, 2025 at 1:34 pm

    Thanks everyone for your kind words. I really appreciate it. Not to bury the lead but Sovereignty passing the Preakness.

    • Mary on May 6, 2025 at 6:07 pm

      I guess Sovereignty told Mr. Mott that he would like to take a long nap before the Belmont. I suspect that he was neighing, snorting and squealing today.

    • Troller on May 6, 2025 at 9:27 pm

      Mark this down as a red letter day for the beginning of the end of the Triple Crown format as we’ve all known.

      • Troller on May 6, 2025 at 9:38 pm

        Correction: Would have been more apt if I called it a black letter day.

  62. Roberta Greevey on May 6, 2025 at 1:30 pm

    No Preakness for Sovereignty! Boo hoo!

  63. Beth Koch on May 6, 2025 at 1:20 pm

    I thoroughly enjoyed this Derby and Steve, you’ve enhanced my experience with this great piece. All along, I’ve been torn between Sovereignty and Journalism, feeling that they were well-matched. I’m a big fan of Baeza also, and hope he goes on to carve out his own path as well. But, bottom line, I’m so happy for Bill Mott, as I respect him so much as a trainer – and Godolphin has more than paid their dues, so kudos to them.

    • Steve Haskin on May 6, 2025 at 2:12 pm

      Thank you Beth

  64. Ms Blacktype on May 6, 2025 at 12:17 pm

    A masterful telling of the story of Godolphin’s quest for that first elusive Kentucky Derby win, Steve. Not only was the race truly amazing (as were so many of the races Saturday), I was so thrilled for Bill Mott I nearly cried. I have never seen him look so genuinely happy. It will be interesting to see if the team takes Sovereignty to Baltimore. I hope they do for traditions’ sake, but I know they will do what’s right for the horse.

    Thanks again for your truly remarkable work on the entire Derby season. You’re still at the top of your game!

    • Steve Haskin on May 6, 2025 at 2:14 pm

      I really appreciaate it Ms B. Thank you!

  65. Liz on May 6, 2025 at 11:58 am

    My 9 year old son (who landed on Sovereignty as his choice several weeks before I did) and myself were screaming and cheering at the TV on Saturday afternoon as they came down the stretch. First time I picked the winner since California Chrome. And my son is thoroughly hooked at this point. What a great afternoon! Thanks a million for writing this lovely recap. I always enjoy reading them so much.

  66. biggy312 on May 6, 2025 at 11:23 am

    Steve;
    Great summary. Every year, your weekly columns add so much to the Derby trail: I am forever grateful as it adds a great deal of enrichment to this old retired guy!
    This Derby had extremely high ratings: Maybe a new, younger generation is happening: I sure hope so!
    Very much looking forward to Belmont at Saratoga: hoping to see rivalry on fast track…

  67. Roberta Greevey on May 6, 2025 at 10:33 am

    Oops! I posted a comment under the previous column. I hadn’t seen this one. so….

    As a nearly lifelong South Floridian and Gulfstream Park neighbor, I was overjoyed by Sovereignty’s win. It was so very disappointing, though, to see the scratch of Tappan Street. The Florida Derby continues to be THE Kentucky Derby prep race. For all you Cal fans, the Santa Anita Derby is not too far back in second — just like in Saturday’s race! I sure do hope that Sovereignty and Journalism meet again in Baltimore.

    Now I can read THIS column. Thank you!

    • Roberta Greevey on May 6, 2025 at 11:54 am

      So much I didn’t know, especially about Godolphin. Every time I see the name, all I can think of is Go Dolphins! Thank you, Mr. Steve Haskin, for a wonderful wrap-up of a super Derby.

  68. Betsy on May 6, 2025 at 10:03 am

    Great article, Steve!

    I’ll never quite forgive Godolphin for retiring Bernardini – what an older horse he’d have been

    What a legacy he’s leaving as a BMS – though Coal Front is doing him and Stay Thirstyo proud

    • Steve Haskin on May 6, 2025 at 10:14 am

      Thanks. I toned that down a little about why they retired him.

      • Betsy on May 6, 2025 at 12:33 pm

        Probably for the best – I think I’d have thrown something at the wall, lol

        What’s great about him as a BMS is that he matches well with so many stallions – Curlin, Nyquist, Into Mischief, Justify, etc…

        It’s nice to see Lakeway in a pedigree – she was an awesome filly

    • Katy on May 6, 2025 at 9:36 pm

      Think of the unmade horses for the gene pool if he had run another year, especially with such an untimely death.

  69. Judi Z on May 6, 2025 at 8:17 am

    You had the one-two finishers pegged all along, and Baeza did not disappoint! Thanks for the deep dive into Godolphin. The organization is a true ambassador for the Thoroughbred racehorse.

  70. TommyMcD on May 6, 2025 at 8:03 am

    It’s only been 3 days since the Derby. How could Steve Haskin have researched and written this fantastic column so quickly? Great job.

    Sovereignty will always hold a special place in my heart.$$$$$

    Now comes the tough question. And I mean no offense. Does Umberto Rispoli keep the ride on Journalism. He put in some nice rides over Friday and Saturday, but there were also the rides on AG Bullet and Journalism. It’s easy to make excuses in a 19-horse Derby. But others had trouble too. Including the winner.
    I know that Michael McCarthy has a relationship with Johnny V. But maybe Johnny V is committed to ride River Thames in the Preakness. Whatever, there are some other big name riders out there. If Journalism even comes back in the Preakness. There’s not much incentive for Derby horses other than the winner to run in the Preakness. If I owned Journalism, I’d wait for the Belmont at Saratoga. Five weeks rest and a track that would favor Journalism over Sovereignty unless they get a wicked pace again. But who’s to say? Sovereignty gets on them quick.

    BTW, aren’t they starting a new era with the Preakness at Pimlico? It will be interesting to see if it will be more of the same, move forward in a good way, or fizzle out completely. I’m a traditionalist. I don’t like change. I gave up a life-long love for baseball because they changed all the rules and my favorite team’s name. But the Preakness had gotten to the point where I wouldn’t mind seeing it moved to another venue. Maybe this new era will change my mind.
    But, if things go South, please don’t move it to Gulfstream. I dislike that track. In fact, all three of their tracks(dirt, turf, and synthetic).

    • Steve Haskin on May 6, 2025 at 9:25 am

      Thanks, Tommy. I remember when the Preakness was a race everyone wanted to win, and it certainly was the most fun race to cover and the favorite race of the vast majority of trainers. I miss the Preakness more than any of the Triple Crown races. It was a great event when the DeFrancis family ran the track.

    • Dominic J Dinatale on May 6, 2025 at 1:28 pm

      Rispoli is fine…why would you replace him.
      Journalism ran the best race of his career….2nd in the Kentucky Derby.

      He simply got beat by a superior foe…no more no less….

      • TommyMcD on May 6, 2025 at 4:03 pm

        He did get beat by the better horse on the day. But if you can get Flavien Prat, Johnny V, one of the Ortiz brothers, Luis Saez, Jose Lezcano, Flo Geroux, Manny Franco, Javier Castellano, or any of the other top riders, wouldn’t you do it? It’s not personal. It’s business. Is Frankie Dettori busy on Preakness Day?

        • Dominic J Dinatale on May 7, 2025 at 6:57 am

          I understand alk that…but you’re blaming the jockey….so what you’re saying is if one of those other jockeys had ridden him in the derby he would’ve won?

  71. Jiffy on May 6, 2025 at 2:14 am

    An excellent column. For the past several months, I’ve really enjoyed the road to the Kentucky Derby, especially the columns and comments here. Thanks to you, I feel that I really got to know the horses and their connections, and that added so much to the Derby experience. Even though I didn’t pick the winner, I was very happy for him and his people–Junior Alvarado, who was getting horseback hugs from his rivals; Bill Mott, who was winning a Derby in what was described as “the old-fashioned way”; and. of course, Sheikh Mohammed, who has given so much to racing for so many years and was finally getting what he wanted most. It was a wonderful event.

    This is a bit off-topic, but I have to share this story. Tonight I was watching a tape of a “Jeopardy” tournament from 2005. The Final Jeopardy question asked for the only word in the English language that has the letters GNT consecutively. Talk about timing! I’m sure I wouldn’t have come up with that twenty years ago, but I knew it tonight.

  72. Terri Zeitz on May 6, 2025 at 2:12 am

    BRAVO!! Thanks so much for such a comprehensive, well written, thoroughly researched article.
    Good karma came back to Bill Mott and Godolphin in spades.
    What a well deserved win in the Oaks/Derby Double.

  73. Nick on May 6, 2025 at 12:16 am

    Steve thanks so much for an incredibly enjoyable ride week by week with your amazing columns🙏🐎🐎

    • Steve Haskin on May 6, 2025 at 9:27 am

      I appreciate it Nick

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