2026 Kentucky Derby Handicapping Analysis
Well, you have come this far after three months, so you might as well stick around and endure the torture you are about to encounter, as we throw more curveballs at you, and even a knuckleball or two. But first we offer a rather unique interview to set the stage for what is to come. If this were a Broadway play it would be “It’s a Mad, Mad, Mad. Mad World.” ~ Steve Haskin
The Shot Heard Round the World
By Steve Haskin
We are going to start with a Q & A between me and myself. I have always wanted to know what I have to say.
Me: So after all these months, it’s crunch time. Who do ya like?
Myself: Well, I still have Renegade, who remains flawless, on top despite the post. And I still have great respect for No. 2 The Puma and his trainer. And No. 3 Further Ado’s energy level every day is just what I wanted to see.
Me: That’s fine, but I need to know who to bet and make some money, so, again, who do ya like?
Myself: Well, Chief Wallabee and Potente are looking powerful out there in the morning and really moving beautifully over the track, and Commandment is still galloping out like he doesn’t want to stop. The Puma is all class and is a must play in all bets. Oh, yes, So Happy might be faster and have more stamina than many people think.
Me: Indecisive as usual. Just tell me who ya like and stop the waffling.
Myself: Well, after digging deeper and analyzing every aspect of the field, I have decided I have no clue who is going to win. Therefore, it is time to take a wild shot and look at what might be rather than what is, which likely will be wrong anyway. My radar has been honed in on Danon Bourbon, that’s right, Danon Bourbon, since I first wrote about him in detail back on March 2 when no one heard of him. And although we still know little about him and how he will stack up against our best horses, I am going with what I have seen visually, in his races and even in his training at Churchill Downs. So, just on the possibility that this American-bred clone of his sire Maxfield is a budding superstar, I have decided not to subject myself to mental anguish any longer and take the proverbial stab. And if he’s not who he pretends to be, then let the best horse win.
Me: But you realize he has never raced on a left-handed track, hasn’t won a graded stakes, and he worked a half-mile Tuesday in a sluggish :52 4/5.
Myself: I am well aware of all three. In case you weren’t aware of it, the Japanese horses train on left- and right-handed tracks, and you can be sure he has had numerous works on a left-handed tracks. And he sure has gone around the Churchill oval like he’s been on it all his life. Forget graded stakes, he is a Japanese horse coming from the other side of the world where all the big races are on grass. It’s not about grade, it’s about getting to the Kentucky Derby with the best dirt horse possible. And as far as that :52 4/5 work, pay no attention to training methods in other countries. There has been only one foreign-trained horse to win the Kentucky Derby, and that was the Venezuelan-trained Canonero II. He also worked a half-mile at Churchill Downs…in :53 4/5. He then worked even slower at Pimlico and went on to break the track record in the Preakness. And Danon Bourbon’s races in Japan have been extremely fast, with final fractions that are faster than our Derby horses have run. His time of 1:50.9 in the Fukuryu Stakes was the fastest running in the 25-year history of the race. Also, his sire Maxfield was five-for-five at Churchill Downs and Maxfield’s sire Street Sense won the Kentucky Derby and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Churchill Downs.
And while I am taking shots in the dark, why not back Danon Bourbon up with a horse who has run only two times in his life and has convinced me that just maybe all these historical roadblocks are just hogwash in this day of less is better, and getting lesser each year. Yes. I have convinced myself through hours of intense scrutiny of visuals and facts and figures that Emerging Market indeed is a major player and potential star, even if I am once again delving deep into the unknown, well aware that logic tells me he shouldn’t win, or even be in the race with two starts. But as I mentioned last week and in previous weeks, this horse has been through a lot and overcome a lot, having been ready to debut twice last last year, so he was race primed well before he ran. And most important, he acts like a seasoned veteran out there, whose mind and class erase any concerns of him having only two starts. This horse just doesn’t seem like other horses and is doing things he’s not supposed to do. Like Danon Bourbon, he just may be special.
So, there you have two horses to bet to win, who should both be a fairly big price, around the 15-1 range.
Me: Well, all that threw me for a loop. I’m sorry I asked. At least you used the word “deranged” in there somewhere. Dare I ask if you have a potential bomb, considering all three of those could very well get bet down to under 20-1?
Myself: Well, being you asked, I am turning to a horse who most people have forgotten about following two defeats. And that is Golden Tempo, who I can see, with the right ride, closing late to pick up enough pieces to at least be competitive in the final sixteenth. But he, like Renegade, has had foot issues, so keep an eye on that. I think Jose Ortiz knows the horse a lot better now, and I love second race blinkers on and the fact that he did win his career debut going six furlongs and then stretched out to two turns and won a Grade 3 Stakes. Look, with him we’re talking 30-1.
Me: OK, I’m done and most likely have learned nothing. You haven’t mentioned a single horse among the half-dozen who have a big shot to win.
Myself: You don’t need me for that. Everyone knows pretty much who they like already. I’m just here to break up the tension while we wait for this race to be run already.
And now for the column. Before we continue, all rational, as well as irrational, reasons for the madness you have just read can be found in my previous column, where I go over all these horses in great detail. I realize everyone has come here for my “expert” selections, but I tend to frown on the mundane if at all possiible, especially when the mundane has me totally befuddled. But rest assure, there will be some pertinent information that follows.
In addition, in my last column I did go over every horse’s pros and cons, focusing a bit more on the expected leading contenders. Add that to my weekly Rankings since January, and you should have an idea how I feel about each horse.
With that said, I will return to Earth and begin my prospective wagers with my main win bet selection Danon Bourbon. With the chance that will prove a fruitless endeavor, I will check the odds on Emerging Market, Chief Wallabee, and Golden Tempo, with the thought of using them in the exotics if need be. But with who? And that brings us back to the reason for this unconventional column.
I realize playing Renegade, Further Ado, and Commandment will result in low payouts, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see The Puma get bet down and even Chief Wallabee after the way he has been training. So betting the top five horses is a crapshoot in itself and not worth betting with a payroll as small as mine. The main reason Renegade has remained atop the Rankings is I have not found a single flaw in him or a single reason to question anything about him, from his record to his pedigree to his speed figure patterns to his mental fortitude, all the way to his strong closing fractions. But I have to add, it did take him 19 days following the Arkansas Derby before he worked, and it is now known he has had foot issues and wears a special shoe, but he had them in the Arkansas Derby, so no use jumping to any conclusions right now. But it is still something to consider.
And if anyone is owed a victory by the Derby gods it is Mike Repole, who had two strong favorites scratched, one, Uncle Mo, the day before the race and the other. Forte, the morning of the race, and he also sent out another horse who had a disastrous trip from post 1, the same post from which Renegade will break. And that horse, Mo Donegal, would go on to win the Belmont Stakes.
As for the other top five, Further Ado simply is the fastest horse in the race, and if he can just pair up his “negative-2” Thoro-Graph number from the Blue Grass or even regress slightly, I don’t see anyone fast enough to match that. And remember, if you feel he is going to “bounce” after jumping seven points from a “5,” he already has run a negative-1 last year, so that negative-2 is only one point faster than what he ran in a maiden race at 2. He is just plain fast, and his energy level suggests the Blue Grass took nothing out of him. But I am projecting at this time he will wind up as the favorite, which makes him only an exotics play, but one who must be used in all of them.
Commandment is probably the most solid and depenable horse in the field, taking all factors into consideration. His dogged determination always makes him a major threat, and he is one horse who truly loves what he’s doing and finds a way to beat you, whether running inside you, outside you, or through you. We have seen examples of all three.
The two potential bet-down horses I mentioned, The Puma and Chief Wallabee, are to me two of the most enticing bets, but both still could be too short for me. We’ll see. Chief Wallabee has been the “Wow” horse in the mornings, the blinkers seem to have him more foscused, and he has been pure poetry in motion. And if you are a Ragozin follower, his pattern of 8 – 6 – 6 make him a major win candidate, with a big forward move expected off that “6” pairing. I would be very surrprised if he didn’t run a huge race.
Finally, there is no way not to love The Puma. He hasn’t been flashy, but that’s not his style. He is that unassuming kid on the block who you don’t want to mess with because even if you beat him you’re going to have bust a gut to do it. He spits in the face of adversity and bad trips and just keeps coming at you, even if he has to lose a ton of ground. Unfortunately, I think he and Chief Wallabee are both going to be your typical wise-guy horses, so watch the board and decide what you’re willing to take. But you will get a thrill from both of them.
If by now, you feel as if there are a dozen horses who can win, you’re right. With so little separating these horses, and so much odds-watching in search of value, we are just presenting them to you to use in any way you choose.
The Sheets Numbers
Before we go any further, I have to say for those who use the Thoro-Graph and Ragozin numbers, you must know that they have a huge disagreement with the Santa Anita Derby figures, and most of all, the figures of the winner So Happy. Without confusing you even more by comparing them, let’s just say that Thoro-Graph, which as you know we have been using all year, has him with a very strong pattern and the second-fastest figure all year. Ragozin, however, has him and runner-up Potente running significantly slower numbers. with seven horses in the field running faster in their final prep than So Happy ran in the Santa Anita Derby. So there you have even more confusion. And I do like what I’ve seen from Potente, who has quietly been a huge presence out there, and who I believe will improve greatly off the Santa Anita Derby, when he wound up on the lead, which is not where he wanted to be He then battled every step of the way with Robusta, who tired badly and finished last. They also disagree on the UAE Derby, which Thoro-Graph has as a much more impressive race than Ragozin. So, with the way Potente has looked training and his Thoro-Graph numbers, I will have to give him a second look.
For those who have interest in So Happy, if you take the four major speed ratings (not sheets figs) — Beyer, Brisnet, Equibase, and TimeformUS — and take all the winners of the major preps, only four of them have gotten triple-digit figures from all four of the speed ratings — Further Ado and So Happy, who got a 100 on Beyer, 103 Brisnet, 100 Equibase, and 121 TimeformUS for the Santa Anita Derby. And that Timeform number is only one point below Further Ado’s lofty 122 and three points higher than Renegade’s Arkansas Derby. Also, So Happy has the second-fastest Thoro-Graph number (“0-plus or “1/4”) behind Further Ado’s “negative-2” in the Blue Grass. Just something to ponder. The main reason I haven’t included him in my bets is the fact that, as of late Thursday, he is the 6-1 second choice, and that is way way too low. But if the odds don’t matter to you, keep those stats in mind.
In some cases Thoro-Graph and Ragozin are close and other cases far apart. For instance, Ragozin has Commandment sitting closer to a winning number than Thoro-Graph does. The latter has him coming off a “4” pairing, which means he has to make a bigger move forward than Ragozin projects, coming off an “8” and “6.” (Remember, Rags numbers are higher). If you are looking for horses with whom they totally agree in a very positive way, which to me moves them way up, I am giving you two who look like smart wagers based on their almost identical patterns by both Speed Sheets in their last three or four starts.
1 — The Puma (4 – 8 – 4 – 2 1/2 on Thoro-Graph and 9 – 13 – 8 – 5 on Ragozin, whose numbers are higher). He now gets five weeks to the Derby. Those patterns are as close to each other as you can get, with both projecting a potential winning number coming up. And in both cases The Puma received a faster number than Commandment, who beat him by a nose. That makes him extremely dangerous and a must play if the price is right.
2 — Emerging Market (5 1/2 – 2 on Thoro-Graph and 12 – 8 on Ragozin). With only two starts, he had a solid career debut number (Somewhat faster on Thoro-Graph), then improved basically the same in the Louisiana Derby and should benefit with six weeks off after such a big stretch-out in distance to a Grade 2 race by a horse with only one start. Nothing this horse does as far as accomplishments would surprise me, because he just may be that special. These two numbers back that up.
Now back to the bets. You have our main win bets, assuming the price is right, and our potential longshot overlay.
The Bets
Forget everything I said. $100 to win on Danon Bourbon and go home. Yes, I’m kidding, just procrastinating before having to put this mess together. No pressure, just displaying my spirit of adventure.
I am writing this on Wednesday evening so updates in the comments can come at any time. Yes, I will stick with my plunge into the unknown and bet Danon Bourbon to win, as well as Emerging Market. That is my dynamic duo at double-digit odds. As indicated, the two smartest bets for those who don’t mind the shorter odds are The Puma and Chief Wallabee, with the latter a bit more of a risk because of the blinkers-on question mark. That could go either way, but with Mott you have to think positive. For a definite bomb, Golden Tempo, even with his foot question mark, is enticing at 30-1, at least in the exotics.
I’m not going to get fancy with the exotics. Again, as of this writing on Wednesday, I would put Renegade, even with his minor foot issues and the vets’ approval (let’s not go through that again), and Further Ado, the fastest horse in the race and as classy as anyone, on top in all bets. And add any of the previously mentioned horses who strike your fancy. If I did that I would wind up with a nine-horse trifecta box. And I don’t have even a tiny fraction of that in my betting account, or bank account. So I leave all the headaches to the big bettors out there. I could easily add Commandment, but that is really stretching it out. However, if you feel as if Further Ado has already peaked and will regress off the Blue Grass, then Commandment is more the horse for you. He certainly hasn’t peaked yet.
If you don’t believe in Danon Bourbon and want to keep it at home, which is understandable, I would have two five-horse trifecta boxes based on training and Speed Sheets patterns, one with Further Ado, The Puma, Chief Wallabee, Emerging Market, and Golden Tempo, and the other with Renegade and the same four horses. I could very well do that in addition to betting Danon Bourbon to win.
This paragraph is a late addition, added Friday afternoon.
OK, now that it’s crunch time, no more plunging into the unknown. Because of the high confusion level of this race, I have come up with the best handicapping angle that I will actually add to the column. Because today is confusing I am turning to yesterday, and I actually like how it turned out. I went back to Week 1 of the Rankings when everything was fresh and new. I took the 15 horses that were ranked. No. 1, 2, 14, and 15 departed the trail with an injury.. No 5, 8, 10, 11, and 12 simply didnt pan out and werent good enough to make the Derby. That leaves, No, 3, 4, 6. 7, 9, 13. Not bad after an arduous three-month journey. No. 4, Litmus Test, I dont believe is good enough. Now we are down to a five-horse trifecta box of the remaining five — Renegade, Commandment, Further Ado, Golden Tempo, and Incredibolt. I will take that any day. If I want to go one step further, I can go into Knocking on the Door and use the one first-start maiden winner who excited me, saying he “exhibited all the traits you want to see in a Derby horse.”. That was Chief Wallabee. So there is my (either 5 or 6-horse) trifecta box, decided 3 1/2 months ago. Oh yes, in that same Knocking on the Door I mentioned The Puma as a Derby-type horse from that Chief Wallabee race, but can’t go any deeper.
Finally, where is my beloved Pavlovian you ask? First off, I would never put the whammy on him by betting him, and second, my wife is betting $10 on him. Just so you know, that is the most money I’ve ever seen her bet on a horse. The pressure is on her now.
A quick look at the Oaks, which also is incredibly wide-open. I will make it very simple. In the hope that Zany doesn’t pull the same antics she did at Tampa and Keeneland and gets a clear run, I don’t believe, as good as these fillies are, there is one who can outclose her down that long stretch or can have a big enough lead to hold her off. She is a big long-striding powerhouse of a filly, who at one point was considered Derby material. She won’t be a price, so this is more of a selection than a bet, other than keying her on top in the exotics and playing her in the Oaks-Derby Double. Repole-Repole? You can also do an exacta box with Zany and the 10-1 Always a Runner, who could be any kind.
That’s it. Read everything carefully, process it, roll it around in your brain for a while, and then go by who you like and consider this merely an entertaining and often bizarre interlude to the difficult task of sorting all this confusion out. But, looking at the entirety of the three-month journey on the Derby trail, if you box the five or six top-ranked horses in the final Week 12 Rankings and you hit the trifecta or superfecta, then all bows and praises will be happily accepted.
Racing historian, author, and award-winning retired journalist for the Daily Racing Form and The Blood-Horse, Steve Haskin was inducted into the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame’s Media Roll of Honor in 2016. Known for his racing knowledge and insightful prose, he has been an exclusive contributor to Secretariat.com since 2020.
I have to agree. That was a poor trip by Irad. It probably was in the game plan, but you could see the plan was not working and he needed to adjust and take him back instead of looking to muscle through. That’s not a good call when you are on the inside and you have many other horses charging in, not to mention the safety aspect. I just keep thinking, ‘Ger him out of there. Get him out of there!”
Yet, it is easy to be a critic when you are on the outside looking in. Hopefully Irad will take the lesson and do better next year so he can join his brother as a Kentucky Derby winner. Nothing lost on the horse. He has no idea he was just in the biggest race of his life. Hopefully he will pass them all in the breeders cup, then we can all tout his resilience and massive effort.
I loved Golden Tempo for this race. You knew it was going to be a fast pace. The track was fast. One could not ignore the closers and it set up great for my boy, Golden Tempo. I will admit, after seeing the catastrophy Renegade had to endure throughout, I was surprised to see him charging in the frontline at the end and was rooting for him. Imagine the story Steve would be weaving if he had pulled it off.
I saw an article on DRF saying that the ratings for the Kentucky Oaks card broke the all-time record. I guess we can look forward to more nighttime telecasts of that race.
To me it was too quick of a turnaround to Derby Day. After the Derby I was exhausted and could barely stay awake for the final two races even though I had action on both.
It was still a lot of fun both days.
Looking forward to starting all over in the Spring, Actually, February.
The inevitable post-Derby doldrums have set in. Just like the end of the football season.
Next weekend I will start looking forward to the Preakness. I have a potential longshot that I hope runs in the race.
I admire the patience of Jose Ortiz to sit back there as long as he did before kicking into gear. He didn’t start running until on the final turn and had a lot of ground to make up. That was the winning move. Sure, Cherie Devaux had Golden Tempo ready to run. But I would rate Jose’s ride right up there with “The Shoe” on Ferdinand in 1986 and just under Sonny Leon’s miracle ride on Rich Strike a few years ago. I still haven’t figured where that ride came from.
Hi Steve,
I’m glad you are well and I still follow your Derby Dozen column and look forward to it every year. The Derby was a surprise and the winner Golden Tempo was amazing. I hope his feet hold up. Actually I wanted to make a comment about Great White and his upset. A horse not really a three yr. old, 1300 pounds, and 17 hands – what were his owners and trainer thinking of to enter him in the derby? Mucho Mucho Man was a May baby, but handled himself smartly and professionally. I understand the derby was not the first time Great White has behaved that way. Clearly he is still immature. Zenyatta was 17 hands and Sheriffs realized her body and mind needed more time. For whatever my 2 cents are worth, I think fame and money clouded the judgement of his team. I just had to get this off my chest, as he is a beautiful horse.
Here is my take on yesterday ‘s Kentucky Derby.
First, of all I underestimated Golden Tempo as I felt he was not as good several others in this 3 year old group. Yesterday he got the perfect scenario. Fast pace, pretty much a clean trip and an intelligent ride. The ride was much better than what Jose gave him in the Louisiana Derby when I think Jose made a tactical error when he took him to the inside. I agree with others on this site I think he would have won that race if just kept to the outside as he was gaining. But that is water under the bridge and he may have learned from it. Is GT the best 3 year old of the crop? That remains to be seen but I don’t think so. Just hope he doesn’t become another Giacomo and win one more time before he is retired.
2nd , If I hear one more internet pundit state that the one hole cost Renegade the race I will wish the the fleas from a thousand camels invade there bedroom tonight and give them misery. The one PP did not cost him , nor would the 2nd, 3rd , 4th etc…. what cost him was Irad charging him out of the gate and making a right hand turn into Albus it wasn’t necessary and the energy he used getting out of the gate and getting bounced around may have been enough to have cost him the race as he does his best running as a closer. He was on the rail and that is were you want to be with a closer at the beginning of this race if you are a closer I wish the horse would have broke flat footed when the gates opened. The winner , GT, was on the far outside and when the gates opened Jose just let him come out and then directly took the horse to the rail and galloped him comfortably up to the first turn. After the first turn when Jose saw Irad make his move with Renegade he took off after him. At one point just before the top of stretch Jose still had GT behind Renegade and looked like he was going to take him to the inside but wisely thought better and went to the outside and the rest is history.
Thought Danon Bourbon ran a bang up race those fast early fractions took there toll on him. Same could be said for So Happy. Commandment was in some trouble throughout the race but then again being by INTO MISCHIEF probably would have benefitted if he was a little farther off the pace. Same probably could be said for Potente. Maybe the light bulb will finally go off in Baffert’s head that Into Mischief runners in a distance race do there best running from way off the pace.
Chief Wallabee ran a decent race. Emerging Market and Further Ado could have ran better. EM maybe a little too close to the hot pace and FA got ping ponged in the stretch and gave up. Wonder Dean too close to the hot pace and faded ( I thought he was more of a closer ???).
It will be interesting to see who ends up being the best 3 year old of this bunch ? Will it be one of these horses in the KD? Could it possibly be Crude Velocity who won the Pat Day mile quite impressively. Or could it be one of the horse sitting on the sidelines right now like a Ted Noffey or Palladin? My crystal ball is still cloudy right now and not giving me much indication.
Steve, must say you did a great job this year as always on trying to keep us on top of things even with this lightly raced bunch. God, I hope this does not become the norm but it looks like it maybe the way of the future for most trainers.
Looking forward for your thoughts on this race. Have a Great Week !!!!
Nice analysis although I could tweak it a little, but it wont make a difference.
BUT I’m not sure if you are aware that the beyer speed figure for the race is 95. Not that I’m a beyer fan, but I tend to look into any info I can get.
Thanks Gary, As far as the Beyer figures I have given up on them as I find them very inconsistent. I will take a peak at them but don’t give them much mind.
I do too, but lets face the facts, when all other speed figures are LOW, we have to investigate if we have the capability, I can say 95%+ people don’t have the heart to pick up a pencil or pen and do their own handicapping.
I know of people who sewar that Beyers are the best then we also have some that say TG’s are the best.
The only way to find our is we put on our joc straps (old saying) and find the answer ourselves.
Gary, all that ever matters, in my point of view is who crosses the line first.
Wow! That’s low. 102 to 106 was expected for the Derby winner. That fast pace probably skewed the numbers.
That tells me that the next two legs are still wide-open.
I have to agree. That was a poor trip by Irad. It probably was in the game plan, but you could see the plan was not working and he needed to adjust and take him back instead of looking to muscle through. That’s not a good call when you are on the inside and you have many other horses charging in, not to mention the safety aspect. I just keep thinking, ‘Ger him out of there. Get him out of there!”
Yet, it is easy to be a critic when you are on the outside looking in. Hopefully Irad will take the lesson and do better next year so he can join his brother as a Kentucky Derby winner. Nothing lost on the horse. He has no idea he was just in the biggest race of his life. Hopefully he will pass them all in the breeders cup, then we can all tout his resilience and massive effort.
I loved Golden Tempo for this race. You knew it was going to be a fast pace. The track was fast. One could not ignore the closers and it set up great for my boy, Golden Tempo. I will admit, after seeing the catastrophy Renegade had to endure throughout, I was surprised to see him charging in the frontline at the end and was rooting for him. Imagine the story Steve would be weaving if he had pulled it off.
I promised the site “information administrator” I was done with this site, but I last mentioned on the site I would come back to eat crow and take a bow. I am hear mainly to eat crow because where it counts, where my money went, I was wrong. I bet Six Speed as I thought he checked most of the pedigree analysis boxes for me. He had same paternal grandpa as Medina’s Spirit and I envisioned a similar wire job. However, Medina’s Spirit ran the half in 47 and Six Speed in 46; I guess that is about 5 lengths quicker. I did not plan for this, a complete pace breakdown. Of the first 7 finishers, all were deep closers except the fifth place, Danon Boubon. What I learned is going forward, I will continue to pick my best pedigree horse and then have a Plan B and ask myself “What if there is a pace meltdown?” Unless my pedigree pick is also a deep closer and one of the DRF best closing pace figures, I will have 2 horses for the win.
What I also learned was the power of the Curlin sire. I was aware of the Gen 2 Curlin sire who gave us Mage and Rich Strike, but now we have the first Gen 1 Curlin sire son to with the Derby.
What I had right, which helped me narrow my choices for the win, was none of the Into Mischief sire sons would win. Despite an alternative fact thinker here, only TWO Gen 1 Into Mischief sire sons have crossed the finish line first, Authentic and Sovereignty. And they both have Gen 5 Secretariat factor. None of the three Into Mischiefs this year had this factor.
Also what I had right is you can toss all the Gen 1 or Gen 2 Tapits, Sire and Dam, not only on the Win but also on hitting the board. Chief Wallabee continues this trend as he came in 4th. Caleb Keller repeated this rather amazing fact this morning on Fanduel. Caleb is quite good with pedigrees.
That’s a wrap from me. I lost money this year, but at least I learned.
Now I can say I am done with this site. To the nice people here who supported my thinking earlier or did not attack me, I thank you and wish you many winners in the future.
Now I am done.
Regards,
Paul
Paul,
Everyone has opinions on this sight. Some are right and some are wrong but you have the right to say them. I did not have a winning day yesterday for the derby but will come back next year for more punishment and hopefully get lucky. It is all part of the game. Will see you next year !!!
It was a spectacular weekend, at Churchill Downs! So much happened….Irad and Flavien did well, but the weekend belonged to Jose Ortiz….I thought the two best three year olds were Cruel Velocity and Danon Bourbon, I thought DB ran lights out, pushing the fat fractions then opening up….It does seem like the Japanese colts like to set the early pace, as it’s happened before…
TO Elvis and Rhetorical ran huge races, but in my opinion the best race was from Baeza, who lost at least six lengths, out of the gate, he should have been declared a non-starter, mutually speaking, you could see he was being held a bit too long….
There are lots of good older horses, this crop of 3yos had better improve, to contend in The Classic….
If you asked me which Derby horses ran better than it looked on paper I would say that Chief Wallabee and Incredibolt will be the ones leaping forward the most in their next starts.
Chief Wallabee is still running greenly despite the blinkers and Incredibolt never had a clear path until the last 50 yards.
It was a wide open race alright with the first twelve separated by only 8 lenghts;
but the last quarters in 24 2/5 and 24 3/5 for Golden Tempo and Renegade respectively was too much to fend off.
That’s two-thirds of the field, then. Interesting, Nelson.
Yes Chief Wallabee ran well while being close to the pace.
However IMHO it was Danon Bourbon as he was pressing Six Speed all the way and lost the nod to Chief Wallabee.
Potente got bumped both turns ..Chief Wallabee had horse, and was clobbered…
I don’t think there was any horse who did not get bumped, if a horse enough class and speed they can overcome that unless the bumping was severe.
Matt W, Nelson and Gary you all have made valid points .
Here’s a question for everyone. My understanding is that generally, closers don’t do well in the Preakness, though obviously there are exceptions. Would the fact that the Preakness is being run at Laurel this year would have any impact on this trend? I’m not familiar with that track.
In other news, I’m happy to report that Great White’s trainer says he was “perfect” following his scary flip.
omit the second “would” in the question
First of all, its all about the pace of the race, a fast early pace, sets it up for closers (we saw that yesterday). A loose horse on the lead is very dangerous (Winning Colors).
Other than that, unless the track is like a bull ring (Los Al) only other type of horse I would look for is a horse who likes a certain track (we saw that yesterday too).
Good point, Gary. Much will depend on whether many speed horses enter and, of course, how the race itself develops.
We have several compelling arguments in support of Golden Tempo skipping the Preakness. I think they will go over him with a fine toothed comb and watch him closely with the intent to race in MD. Both his sire and damsire won the Preakness, and Curlin did it closing. They might like to chase that piece of history – even if it’s not at Pimlico.
If he was right as rain and you were a Phipps, what would you do?
It will be a shame if Derby winners regularly skip the Preakness. The Preakness, and the whole weekend, will be pretty light, since few who ran yesterday will run back in two weeks. Racing has become very corporate, IMO.
Most folks, I think, would agree that this is not your grandfather’s triple crown. It’s about time to expand the time between races. The trainers, themselves, are pleading for more time for their horses to recuperate. There’s your solution.
Expanding the time will do nothing, just like everyone were saying that there were not enough horses at SA, so they took in all the Nor Cal horses. The result, many SA trainers are sending horses east and some even moved there and guess what? SA now is running the bottom line claimers even on major days for example a 10 K claimer yesterday.
The major problem is that with the inflation going up in the last 3 or 4 decades, its becoming hard to run a business, trainers need money coming in to run their business, hence they will scratch when an opportunity rises to gain more money. Inflation is CA is the worst they have been paying over $5/Gal for gas for the last 3 or more decades and no one knows where all that money went.
I agree with the impact of the inflation factor on racing, Gary. You make some good points, but I do believe that the Triple Crown would be better served with an extra week between the three jewels. JMO
Dewey, stated for years TC requires changing. Horses no longer hold up as before.
Hindsight is 20/20, but I’m still kicking myself for not boxing the Ortiz Brothers, which I do 95 % of the time. Golden Tempo checked a lot of boxes, (homebred, X-Factor large heart gene, top jockey, sire line leading directly to Mr. Prospector, successful broodmare sire, (Bernardini) and a trainer that is having a lot of success lately).
Sometimes, it hard to see the forest for the trees.
Hopefully, Ms. DeVaux skips the Preakness and points to the Belmont Stakes. Just my opinion.
BTW, I’m still scratching my head trying to figure out how a maiden (Ocelli) can finish 3rd at 70-1 ahead of several graded stakes winners. He sold at auction for 12K, go figure.
I remember our exchanges touting Golden Tempo after Jose Ortiz blunder in the Louisiana Derby; saying that the son of Curlin would be the key horse in the trifectas.
We concluded that had Golden Tempo kept straigth line he would have won the LA Derby rather easily… Anyway, it was a great prep and Cheire knew it.
On top of that, Golden Tempo looked like a Hercules in the post parade yesterday …he has grown a lot the last seven weeks.
Golden Tempo is pace dependent but he still has a brilliant future at the Classic distances.
I know how you feel, Bill. The points system be damned. I don’t think that maidens should be allowed in America’s most prestigious race, period. I mean, it’s ridiculous that Grade 1 winners are finishing up the track and this maiden came within a length of almost winning the race. He was 0 for 6 coming into the Derby. The Derby is becoming a real crap shoot. Yes, it’s sour grapes for me as I would have had both the tri and super if Ocelli had not been in the picture. He costs me an estimated $15,000 – $20,000 in winnings.
That said, congrats to Golden Tempo. A well deserved win as he came the widest into the stretch for his rally. One of the most exciting Derbys that I’ve ever witnessed.
I disagree, on principle, on barring maidens. None of the horses had run enough to establish their quality and resiliency. If horses are going to run maybe twice before the derby, and maybe just a couple times after, were they really racehorses? Running a maiden is just an emblem of the current racing climate.
You hit the Bullseye with ” Were they really racehorses”
Danon ran too close to that hot pace. What a foolish mistake. It’s not like it was not expected. Had he relaxed and found comfortable position away from it, he may have had his usual gas in the tank finish. I was stunned to see him so close. He’s never raced against a pace like this and it’s not like his connections didn’t know it was going to happen. Strategery was all wrong. They should run him back in the Preakness or wait for the Belmont.
Agree, Mr. President!
I too agree.
I’m in agreement, El Kabong. I used Danon Bourbon as my key horse in the tri and super. My heart sank when I saw him chase that speedball, Six Speed, and witness those quick fractions for a 1 1/4 m. race. Not a formula for success. Lesson learned, hopefully.
I feel the same way about So Happy….. I said in the previous blog that if he was too close to the pace he would fade in the stretch. Mike Smith must have thought he was on Justify.
In the UAE derby Danon had the fastest closing times in 35.8 12.6 for the last 3/8 and last 1/8. From yesterdays result we can clearly see what speed can do. I think he ran the best comparing to the others and still hang on 5th just 3 length behind the winner and got nosed for 4th.
Two horses were being closely monitored….Golden Tempo and Renegade!…..I would skip The Preakness, with ‘Tempo, being such a deep closer…besides it’s not a “real” Triple Crown….
The great Curlin is having fertility problem but this Derby was certainly a triumph of his legacy. The Derby Trifecta got his imprint.
Golden Tempo is the first son of Curlin to win the Derby, Renegade is a maternal grandson of Curlin and Ocelli is a paternal grandson of Curlin.
If Golden Tempo runs in the Preakness he also will be the “uncle” of Chip Honcho and Talkin competing in the second leg of the Triple Crown.
Thanks as always to Mr. Haskin – the best to ever do it.
A little surprised at the lack of angst over the clearly undersized exacta payout. I realize it was the great Ortiz brothers, but I would think that’s for the most part a hunch play for the once a year gang, not the high rollers who would impact such a large pool in such a large field. A little suspect imo but that’s racing.
Anybody think that the AE’s should be scratched once betting has begun?
Lowest Beyer ever, for a Derby Winner…95…..TO Elvis got a 108…..
For you historians out there, is Golden Tempo the first Derby winner that used the Louisiana Derby as their final prep race? Or am I missing something?
Might’ve been Funny Cide too
Funny Cide’s last prep was in the Wood but his penultimate prep was in the Louisiana Deby at 1 1/16 miles.
2026. Golden Tempo
2021……Mandaloun 2019….. Country House
2003…. Funny Cide
1996…….Gringstone
Grindstone 1996
Country House 2019
Dominic, I did see that Grindstone ran in the Louisiana Derby in 1996 but then he ran in the Arkansas Derby which was run later in the year at that time….so maybe this is a case of the timing of the Fairgrounds prep races.
Yes, now that you mention it.
Funny Cide for ex prepped in both the LA Derby and the Bluegrass, I believe…Monarchos won the FL Derby then the Wood…those days are gone…
•Monarchos 2nd in the wood…
Bruce, bet someone quicker will have this for you by the time I post, but I like these rabbit holes.
Derby winners from the Louisiana Derby include Black Gold in 1924, and Grindstone in 1996. Both won the Louisiana Derby, and were not just bridesmaids. The race was run at 9F when Black Gold won it, at 8.5 when Grindstone prevailed in 1996.
The race has been run at 1&3/16 since 2020. Hot Rod Charlie and Epicenter both won the race at 9.5F, and both were 2nd in their respective Derbies. Golden Tempo is the only recent participant from the LA Derby to win the KY Derby.
I knew the hive mind would get it righter than I did! Forgot Mandaloun. He is the only other to run it at 9.5F. He was 7th in Louisiana.
6th. Nelson is right.
Hi Bruce.
The Lousiana Derby was Country House (4th) and Mandaloun (6th) last prep.
But both won by DQ …I you are asking for horses who actually crossed the wire first comming from the LA Derby then Golden Tempo was the first indeed.
The best placings (2nd or 3rd) for LA Derby / Kentucky Derby horses were Mucho Macho Man, Nehro, Commanding Curve, Revolutonary, Golden Soul, Commanding Curve, Gun Runner, Midnight Bourbon, Hot Rod Charlie, and Epicenter.
Thank you for the info Katy and Nelson! Not sure why but I find it interesting to see how the Derby winner faired in their final prep….and where that prep was.
The last prep is always key Bruce. So, your instinct is right there.
As Katy said, Black Gold, Grindstone, Funny Cide, Country House, Mandaloun, and Golden Tempo are the six LA/Derby dual winners.
Golden Tempo is the only one since the LA Derby distance was changed to 8.5 furlongs in 2020…
Cortect!
A car can be made, for Renegade being best yesterday…they got shuffled way further back than they wanted to be …and I wonder…WHY didn’t Churchill move the horses out one lane, with the scratch of Puma? Santa Anita ALWAYS does that, and in the Derby it’s problematic!
Case
That’s an excellent point, Matthew. I didn’t know SA did that. Makes sense to me!
Interesting point Mathew, and so practical from fairness and safety standpoints.
During the PP, I hypothetically asked my Dad what would happen with a gate scratch. Would they close the gap in the starting gate or leave the empty spot? They closed Great White’s gap, so I guess we know that one – for 2026, anyway.
Great race by Golden Tempo (shades of Silky Sullivan).
My “sweet six” as mentioned earlier was keyed by Danon Bourbon who gave me thrills with his effort leading into the stretch. I keyed him in every position for both the trifecta and superfecta with Renegade, Further Ado, Commandment, Chief Wallabee and my longshot special, Golden Tempo. The cost for $1 Trifecta was $60 and for $1 Superfecta was $240 maxing my race budget of $300. I wasn’t going to make any more bets but, my TwinSpires AWD account was offering a promotion for a bet $10 to win and get a refund if your horse finishes 2nd or 3rd. That proved to be a lifesaver as I chose Golden Tempo because I was confident that he would hit the board if not win. So, I collected $241 to recoup most of my $310 wagers. Thank you, Steve!
p.s. Ocelli, if I see you in any dark alleys, watch out! lol
I’m catching up on the 9 dirt races I wanted to watch yesterday at OP and AQU. omg Sterling and Wolf both picked So Happy. When they crossed the finish line in the Derby (and all week) my thought was, people this is a mile and 1/4 race, and also pedigree matters. And I’m not just talking about So Happy only.
After the SA Derby I said on here, man that was very impressive by So Happy, and I watched the whole race more than once. But thinking So Happy could win at a mile and 1/4? C’mon.
I like Serling. But the one thing I dont understand about him is he is all about the beyer. Many times he says after a race he cant comment on a winner much till he sees the speed figures.
CDI wants the Japanese and Middle Eastern Road to the Derby and award the points and automatic entries to them and then they show up and wreak havoc on the early pace. When I saw that 6-furlong time in 1:10 and change, it had to be the closers. I think it was Bill that commented on the home-breads in the race, weeks ago. Renegade, Chief Wallabee, Golden Tempo, Pavlovian and Wonder Dean. I hit the exacta because I thought: What if the brothers were to run 1-2? Never thought Ocelli would appear at the end, or heck, have the lead in the stretch. Happy for the connections of Golden Tempo and I remember every time I watched the replay of the Louisiana Derby and Golden Tempo reminding me of Lookin at Lee and his winding run in the Arkansas Derby. The mind is a terrible thing.
CDI is being taken to task, on national sports radio shows, about the TO Elvis odds debacle…loading is 15-1…leaving is 12-1….crossing the wire—-5-1. ….
Steve, how historic is it what Bernardini is doing as a broodmare sire?
What a race. This senior with a bad knee was jumping up and down and hollering like a banshee. Thrilled for the Phipps family, the Violas, and Cherie Devaux. I hope Golden Tempo has a solid career, retires healthy much later than 3, turns into the stallion the Phipps’ have bred in the past, and doesn’t get sold overseas. Especially now that Curlin has issues.
I haven’t bet on horses since 2003 but my final five finished 1, 2, 4, 5, and 7 so I did okay. ALL because of Steve and his superb research and knowledge. Thank you again Mr. Haskin.
Congratulations to big-hearted, tongue-chewing, my-heels-are-fine Golden Tempo, Cherie DeVaux, Jose Ortiz (and family), and The Phipps/St Elias! Congratulations to Renegade and his team: he may not have won, but he looked bravest and most resilient to me. Props to Ocelli, now a truly battle-tested maiden with “Grade-1 placed” in his resume, and Tyler G with a smart, clean Derby ride.
Long live Curlin! Get well soon.
If you’re like me and cannot get enough, Bloodhorse’s wrap-up of the race has Churchill Downs’ track footage of the race embedded (no overhead views). APharoah12 also has his race day video up and edited on YouTube. I wish he could livestream, because his paddock footage of the field was excellent. (Ocelli might have been less of a surprise – he looked great, as did all the top 5 finishers.)
Steve
Thank you for a great ride to start off the Spring of 26 . I did well with Golden Tempo . Caught Ocelli for 3rd . My other horses were up the track . The 2 horse with foot issues the Reg Vets didn’t scratch were 1 and 2 . Wish the exacta paid more for $1 . Thanks again Steve !
I am looking forward to your next story.
Chris
I caught the $1 ex/box as well as the show payoff on Ocelli. $140 and $36….no shame in that payoff for a 20 horse field. Actually up $50 on the day.
I was surprised that Further Ado, So Happy and Commandment all lost ground….
Good morning, Steve
Another great year in the books!
Thanks for all the info and background of the derby horses….it helped me stick to my guns re: Golden Tempo….liked him early on but had many doubtful moments. Exacta and Oaks/Derby Double paid well….Ocelli cost me though…needed the Chief to get up for third for TRI….on to the Preakness!
Dom, I think Ocelli upset the apple cart for more than a few of us. I would have had both the trifecta and superfecta if Ocelli hadn’t snuck in there. That’s happened to me a lot in the Derby over the years. That’s why this race remains the biggest handicap challenge in the sport. One of these years, I’m going to hit when I least expect it. lol
I hear that…surely im not the only one to get burnt by the point system …its the biggest challenge in all of handicappping…..the best part is you dont have to stray too far from the favorite to get into the big money….i dont mean to cry sour grapes but too many of these horses get into the derby on weak resumes….hang in there Dewey…one of these years….on to the Preakness… good luck w your wagers…
I feel exactly the same I had the first 6 across the line if you can take the maiden out. I was very high on GT and collected very well on the win and the exacta but no tri or super or high 5. Happens to the best of us. Thanks to Steve for the great work all spring. I thought GT would need a Calvin Borel ride to win and Ortiz almost succeeded in doing that.
I viewed So Happy as another Happy Jack all week. Ridiculous. I would have been very happy for Glatt if he had won.
I am not a bettor. I thought Golden Tempo had a shot. Certainly was watching to see him make his run from the back. Plus he was Caton’s paddock pick on FDTV.
Cherie is one of my favorite trainers.
Good call on Golden Tempo. I wish I had the confidence in him to play him to win. Pedigree wise he had it. I knew it, but so did a lot of others. I did use him in my trifecta and super boxes but the maiden ruined it for me and many others. I was so close. lol.
Bernardini is becoming quite the broodmare sire. It’s really no surprise considering his genetics. I knew it was a matter of time that one of his daughters would produce a Derby winner. Curlin over Bernardini has been a fantastic nick and the female family of Golden Tempo(Phipps breeding, Blitey)was my 2nd favorite in the field behind Incredibolt(Lassie Dear). I could still kick myself for not betting him to win but he was used in my boxed exotics. This, from a betting perspective reminds me so much of 2024 when I bet huge on the cousins exacta(Sierra Leone and Forever Young)only to have Mystic Dan sneak up and snatch it by the narrowest of margins.
Sigh, that’s horse racing, especially with a weak crop.
I am happy for the female trainer, it’s a great story.
Rewatching the Derby….all three trifecta horses came from fr back ..pace collapse ….
Mathew, absolutely! Six Speed was an instrument of chaos from the start. No walking the early fractions. Masterclass trips worked out by the Ortiz Brothers – and Tyler G.
They sure did Mathew….18th, 15th, 16th and 10th at the half…18, 16, 15, 10 at 3/4….I know you liked Renegade deepite the 1 hole but I must say he ran a hell of a race…the maiden cost me the trifecta…Inhad the exacta and the oaks/derby double but the maiden beat me…needed the Chief to get up for third….made money dspite that….Renegade will make some noise down the road for sure.
So happy for Golden Tempo, my fav this year.
Curlin was well represented in this year’s Derby: sire of Golden Tempo, broodmare sire of Renegade, and sire of Connect,(a son of Curlin) who sired Ocelli.
Over the moon for Cherie breaking that glass ceiling.
What an exciting race!
I think the closest to a Derby win before Cherie was Shelley Riley and Casual lies in 1992 when he finished 2nd to Lil Etee and also 3rd in the Preakness.
The first historic female Triple Crown race win was Jena Antonucci and Arcangelo in the 2023 Belmont. Another horse from a stellar female family BTW(Better Than Honour). Maybe Cherie can win the whole enchilada this year. That would be incredible.
SoloSolo, great comment! Curlin’s stock is high again! He may be on the shelf for the rest of the season, but anyone who has a mare checked in-foal to him has to be clicking their heels after today. I love it when the ones who thrilled us on the track also turn out to be breed-shapers as stallions.
Katy, I too love it when great racehorses become good sires—-somewhat rare, it seems.
Anyone who read an earlier comment from Pappa Steve Haskin, that wasnt me. it was a troller.
That’s all we need “a Troller” If we find him does 6 hits with the whip apply!
Yes indeed. There is a back aching for the lash.
Second offence, Gelding!
LOL !!!
No, have at it!
Dang an interloper. All of us having such a nice time, too. Anyway, superb job, Steve, aka Myself!!! (Yourself? ‘imself?) Another fantastic ride up to the big day with plenty of wisdom and more creativity than ever. Thanks to the real you for everything. ❤️
Whew, that was something! I feel bad for the connections of Great White. What a scary incident. I can’t recall ever seeing a horse flip over behind the gate like that. The jockey must have been so disappointed–but thank heavens that massive horse didn’t roll over on him.
Thrilled for Cherie DeVaux! Golden Tempo wasn’t one of my picks (none of mine came in), but it was exciting to see history being made. What a nice finale, too, for Donna Barton Brothers’ final broadcast.
I was so happy to see another female trainer get a Triple Crown race win. Historic.
Jena Antonucci won the Belmont with Archangelo(another horse from a great female family). Maybe someday a woman will win the Preakness and/or the Triple Crown. Heck, it could still happen this year. If he goes in the Preakness, I know who I’ll be rooting for.
Wow, Kudos to DeVaux and Phipps and St Elias. Thankfully I learned long ago for saver exacta bets go with the best jockeys! They have a better POV!
What a race! My top pick Renegade did a great job from the one hole to finish second by basically a head. I had a feeling Golden Tempo might close well at the end (wasn’t necessarily expecting the win!) so I did put a show bet on him and it won back all my losses, so I’ll take it!!
I generally like Mike Smith, but that left turn out of the gate was dangerous and caused all the trouble. He’s been there enough not to do that.
Glad it didn’t turn into a disaster.
What a satisfying victory! I bet my last $2 on a Commandment/Emerging Market exacta box, but I screamed with delight when Golden Tempo crossed the line first. Congratulations to everyone on his wonderful team, from St. Elias and the Phipps family to marvelous trainer Cherie DeVaux to Jose Ortiz to Golden Tempo himself. I hope he eats up every oat.
Further Ado ended up favored. No Idea where he finished. It wasn’t in the top 8.
He should be tough when he gets back to Keeneland.
Commandment finished 7th.
It was amazing how the odds changed in the last few minutes with so much money already in the pool.
BTW, that Ortiz brothers exacta paid $278 for a $2 wager. Not bad.
Everybody was talking Irad, Irad etc…and which horse he was going to ride…turns out they had the wrong Ortiz…in fairness to Irad, Renegade was the best of the horses he had to choose from…
Tommy, Further Ado checked in 11th.
This is 2 consecutive Derby winners for Bernardini as a BMS
Incredible
He’s an amazing broodmare sire and I was super happy for Curlin too. That’s a fantastic nick.
Had it wrong today,also wrong proclaiming Renegade wouldn’t hit the board. He ran well! Congrats to GT.
Congrats to Golden Tempo and Cherie DeVaux. Thought he was just a notch below the Renegade and Commandment. Everything just set up for him today and he had it in him to win it all. But no way did could I have picked Ocelli to finish in the money.
John Sherriff is smiling from above !!!
Correct.
Wow! Cashed for $6.5k in futures; where did Ocelli come from???
Nice call Steve!!!
Great job!!!
Thanks Tommy!
Congrats…
Same here Biggy
Cashed $13,800.00 at SUPERBOOK Westgate
Time to reset my Kentucky Derby countdown clock.
Congratulations, Mark!!!
Ocelli wouldnt have been in th starting gate without the help of the points system….if it was still graded stakes earnings hecwouldnt have been in….
Way to go, biggy!
Thanks Dewey!
Well at least two pts. I made came true.
1) The Puma not working for at least 2/3 weeks could be problematic.
2) F Ado is a one track race horse.
I really dont think Further Ado is a one track horse… his race at CD in the kentucky jockey club stakes at CD was his best race ever…a 20 length victory in a MSW is not the same as a hard fought G1 victory…hes won at two different tracks.
Its more likely that he bounced, had too much trouble to overcome, etc, etc….or it could be that handicappers like myself who liked him alot misjudged his ability and were wrong about him…
First lets start with Golden Tempo’s BSF for the Derby which is 95
As far as Further Ado goes, here are the beyer speed figures (I have at least 4 other speed figures, but not handy as we speak).
Excluding the derby BSR which i have not yet found, going from his blue Grass to his 1st race at the bottom.
Kee 106
Tam 92
CD 82
Kee 98
Sar 69
Sar 68
Its clear his numbers jump up at Kee. Even though he ran well at Tam that track numbers are always a bit higher than most others.
and here are his equibase and TG numbers, see the pattern
Kee 107 -2
Tam 94 5-1/2
CD 90 5-1/4
Kee 105 -1
Sar 70 10
Sar 79 8
It was just as easy as taking the Ortiz brothers in an exacta box.
Curlin finally got his Derby !
Congrats to Golden Tempo, Cherie DeVaux, the first female trainer to win the Kentucky Derby!! and Jose Ortiz. He knows now that the son of Curlin can also fly going wide… lol
The Phipps Stable got a well deserved Derby trophy…
Ocelli again killed all my trifecta combinations…
I was wrong about Golden Tempo. He came from last.
They got the pace. Golden Tempo, Renegade, Ocelli, and “The Chief” to a certain degree.
“The Chief” got battered in the lane and a rough trip overall. But he wasn’t going to beat Golden Tempo or Renegade. Maybe he could have beat Ocelli.
The Japanese horse Danon Bourbon ran very well. He was up on that fast pace and just got passed by “The Chief” late for 4th.
Not sure where So Happy, Commandment, and Further Ado ended up.
I’ll watch it again tomorrow.
Steve Haskin had the top two in his box. I hope he had an exacta box as well.
The Chief did indeed have a rough stretch run…I stuck to mynguns with GT….hsd the EX and the Oaks/Derby double so hsd a good day….but if the Chief had gotten up for 3rd I hadvthe TRI too….
You and Donna Brothers. That’s good company.
I thought JJ Hernandez had kept RT obusto inside and out of trouble while in tight quarters, but at the top of the stretch horses don’t run straight, he got banged around…Jerry Bailey said “save horse”, as they were loading …that was the exacta …
Meant Potente
Nice call.
Just as I suspected…
Are you referring to the Hall of Fame trainer of the rail horse?
Right before post time, I want to thank Steve for sharing his expertise and all his hard work in making sense of this derby. I also want to thank the folks who post here for sharing their expertise and opinions. I was all in for The Puma but we all know how that worked out. I included Golden Tempo, Chief Wallace, Commandment, Incredibolt, and Renegade in a variety of bets with my family.
Put $300 on CW for the win.
Ouch …. I got burned too !!! But fortunately not for that much. Oh Well there is always next year.
No problem. Flying to Indy in morn. Not concerned. Renegade is very good.
Was not happy with the start of race by Irad no reason to push the horse out of the gate….. He should watched his brother who was just jogging GT at the beginning of the race.
Agree with your take on that.
Good luck to everyone!!! Hope we cash big tickets!!!
How is Great White 23-1??
Just dropping by to check the chats.
So Happy getting a lot of love.
Good luck everyone!
Bets are down
7,15-1-7,8,14,15,18,19-6,7,8,12,14,15,18,19
7,15-7,8,14,15,18,19-1-6,7,8,12,14,15,18,19
1-7,15-7,8,14,15,18,19-6,7,8,12,14,15,18,19
1-8,14,18,19-7,15-6,7,8,12,14,15,18,19
The $$$$$$ Haymaker
7-14,16,19-1,6,8,12,15,18-1,6,8,12,15,16,18,19
Only bets on the day. Good luck everyone. Steve, thanks as usual for the best lead up to the Derby. Cheers. Time to light up the cigars and play “The Ghost of Stephen Foster” and other great music from the Squirrel Nut Zippers. Perfect for Derby Day esthetics.
Danon ran to close to that hot pace. I was stunned to see him there. What a mistake. Had he relaxed off the pace he might of had a closing run. 1:10 6F fried everyone near it except Danon. If he had won, my Haymaker would have paid nicely.
Churchill track is playing very fast today.
I foresee the Derby time to be faster than Monarchos’ 1:59.97.
My $48-bet is:
8-So Happy/18-Further Ado
8-So Happy/18-Further Ado
1-Renegade/6-Commandment/7-Danon Bourbon/11-Incredibolt/
1-Renegade/6-Commandment/7-Danon Bourbon/11-Incredibolt/14-Potente/15-Emerging Market/12-Chief Wallabee
Safe trips and Good luck to everyone!
Hearing possible sub 2:00 for Derby.
Just placed my bets. Good luck to all. 🍀
My derby horse this year is Wonder, the white-nosed racehorse.
And I keyed Further Ado, Emerging Market, Potente, Wonder Dean in exotics.
With the scratches over the last few days my exacta box now looks like this:
Renegade, Commandment, So Happy , Potente, Further Ado , Chief Wallabee, Danon Bourbon and Emerging Market.
But I woke up this morning with Potente on my mind so I will have a WIN bet on him and contemplating a “Key” Trifecta with him on top.
Good Luck to all
Will put a WIN bet on Cornucopian in the Churchill Stakes Race.
CD race 10, any thoughts on T O Elvis? This is a KY bred horse by Volatile out of Stopshoppingdebbie. His dam won her first 9 starts.
Wow, bet him at 11-1… closed at 5-1
Yikes!
Nice Picking !!!
Thanks
Congrats Zanytactics… maybe it is the flooding of Japanese betting money making the odds drop a lot from the morning line.
It is likely same will happen to Danon Bourbon and Wonder Dean.
Thanks
Congratulations
Nice going Zany!
Stopshoppingdebbie was unbeatable at Emerald Downs. Because Emerald is my local track, a put win down on T O Elvis. Too bad the odds dropped so much. Oh well, I still won.
Congratulations
The Pat Day Mile….The Shoemaker Mile….and not there’s The Laffit Pincay Stakes, which is great, the guy was still riding well, age 56…but was hurt, badly, when a rider crossed over on him, and he broke his neck …had finally got over his weight issues, just think, had he been riding today…with the 124 lb scale weight, when Pincay rode it was 118….
I’m shocked Renegade is currently co-third choice…6-1….
Potente high ML and not getting bet is the biggest head scratcher for me. How is he not 12-1?
Usually when I like a horse and he’s not getting bet though, he doesn’t run well. So I’m not too optimistic.
First five dirt races ..the horse on the inside, down the stretch is your winner…
The delay on Peacock is pretty bad. Race is off and they haven’t even loaded on Peacock.
Down to 19 with The Puma out. I have a top 4. 1- Chief Wallabee 2- Commandment 3- Danon Bourbon 🥃 4- Wonder Dean. I will box these 4 in my TRI, SF, and in EX Boxes. I’ll use these 4 + Golden Tempo in 8 $1 SH5 tickets with GT finishing 5th. I’ll also play a P5 anchoring the last leg with my top 4.
I have not seen outside closers blowing past, today…seems the inside is good ..
This column was so entertaining! I laughed out loud more than a few times. But I cried when the first thing I read this morning on Facebook and in the blood horse was the puma was scratched that’s a real heartbreaker. He put so much joy into this year’s derby group. I am sure he’ll recover and hopefully see him maybe in two weeks maybe in the Belmont, but certainly this summer. Good luck with all your bets at this point I’m so confused but my allegiance and maybe some of my money will go to so happy just for fun and you gotta love Pavlovian. I’m just always praying safe trips for all.
Another Exciting Derby!
Happy Derby Day, everyone! Wishing safe trips for all. Glad it apparently won’t rain.
Did maidens just run 1:41 and change, in race one?….
That winner of the CD first—Powershift—was Renegade ‘s workmate..
141.86. Thats who Emerging Market beat in his mile 40 yard debut.
I hope everyone caught the 2000 Guineas just now at Newmarket. Magnificent performances by the winner, the unbeaten Bow Echo, and runner up Gstaad, who won the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf last year. The two ran away from the rest of the field. A scintillating start to Derby Day.
It’s Derby Day, and…..SO HAPPY is the current favorite!..
The first two races at Churchill today will be shown on FanDuel TV. Also races 13 & 14.
From 12noon until 2:30pm I will have to stream the races on Peacock. NBC takes over from 2:30pm until 7:30pm. Which is right after the Derby.
I thought that The Puma was a sure thing to hit the tri and super-duper.
With all these scratches, I wonder what will happen when they hit the track and the Vets get a look at them?
Good luck today everybody.
Too bad they knew something was wrong as he has not trained for many days. If only they would have scratched earlier the Corona horse would be running and we could have some good pace.
He had not worked since the 18th.
Every year we talk about the pace of the Derby….this year, with the 3 AEs that drew in the pace should be even faster than first glance…
My guess is:
45 plus for the half
1:10 plus for 3/4
What say you? Over/under?
The Puma was scratched this morning due to some swelling in his leg from a skin infection.
WOW….does #24 draw in? If so I will pray for him…
Nope. Last chance to get in was Friday morning. With all these scratches, this is really a weird Derby. Contenders that were previously on the far outside will now break from substantially better posts: Further Ado will now break from the 15 hole.
No. It looks like the #24 scratched. I think there will be just 19 horses in the final field. Unless the on-track vets see something that they don’t like.
Wouldn’t it be great if NBC/Peacock would show all the post parades and the horses getting saddled. Not just for the Oaks and Derby. People are betting real money and should be able to see how their horses are acting and look before the race.
I’m with you on that Tommy….I’ve seen enough pretty hats to last a lifetime…I’d rather watch them saddle Robusta than see one more hat…
That is exactly how I feel about it.
I agree. Yesterday before the Oaks, Peacock showed a lot of the eventual winner, Always a Runner, and I realized she had a big shot. Hadn’t been impressed with her win in the Gazelle, but she’s really blossomed since and she showed it yesterday.
Agreed, BUT ….I have NEVER in my lifetime seen live network showing of ANY horse race, on Friday night….so if it’s HAT FASHION that helps ….I’ll take it, that was terrific last night, watching the Oaks on my television..
Will Chad Brown win the Derby with a third time starter like he won the Oaks with a third time starter?
Emerging Market was one of the best-looking horses that I saw over the last two weeks.
I was on him when he won the Louisiana Derby. But not today. Which is crazy.
Emerging Market drew what I think is a great post. I think that Flavien Prat will have a big day today after burning up lots of cash and getting schooled by the Ortiz brothers yesterday. Emerging Market screams “all systems go!” He might even be decent odds.
But I’m going to let him beat me.
It would be quite an accomplishment if Chad Brown can pull it off.
I just feel that it would be unlikely to happen twice in the same year. I know. A ridiculous reason. Especially since I don’t feel great about any of the other horses.
Emerging Market is the only horse there with no Secretariat blood, but ironically the most resemblance. He’s a stunner!
Bill Mott got “the monkey off his back” with Sovereignty winning the Derby. Before that brilliant victory everyone had tight lips mentioning Country House as his first Derby win. Mott’s second Derby is the one to brag about.
Brad Cox has the golden opportunity to do the same and win the Derby by actually finishing first and not by technicalities. Then Mandaloun’s win by Steward’s ruling would be seen as just a prelude of a real Derby conquest waiting to happen.
Also a curiosity is that a win of Cox’s Further Ado or Commandment would give Luis Saez or John Velazquez a karmic payback for the disqualifications of Maximum Security in 2019 and Medina Spirit in 2021. The beneficiaries of those verdicts were precisely Bill Mott and Brad Cox.
Further Ado and Commandment are currently tied as the third betting choice at 7 to 1 each behind Renegade (at 5/1) and So Happy at 6/1.
I expect Further Ado’s odds to come closer to Renegade’s by post time.
Steve, you’re killin’ me.
I made my decisions based on your prior columns.
Let’s get this race behind us and put your mind at ease!
I’m so happy Always A Runner won. Now if we can get Emerging Market home.
It’s after midnight, eastern time…it’s Derby Day—and So Happy is currently CO-FAVORITE! I don’t think this is all sentiment—-I think people in the know think this colt is for real .
Good luck Bill!
Do you know where we can see the will pays for that DD?
Thanks Roan Boy.
Unfortunately, I do not know where we can find those DD payouts. If Wonder Dean, at 30-1 or Potente at 20-1 would the Derby, your payout would be significant.
Good luck to you as well.
BTW, I’m very high on Potente, and almost used him in my DD.
I played a $20.00 Oaks/Derby Daily Double, using Always a Runner in the Oaks and Danon Bourbon in the Derby. Always a Runner paid $13.04 for her Oaks win, so if by chance Danon Bourbon wins the Derby, I would be well rewarded.
Wonder Dean pays $227 (for a $1 DD .)…Potente pays $117…..Danon Bourbon pays $74,which information he will get bet down, from his 20-1 ml….
10-1 or maybe 11-1. That would be significant.
I haven’t made my Derby bet yet. I can still get down on Danon Bourbon.
Danon Bourbon had been holding at 15-1 most of the day on Saturday.
Thanks Matthew!
Got the double going to Wonder Dean and Potente. Can’t take credit for the Oaks handicapping though, I hit the all button.
Although the winner went off at 5-1, there were 6 other horses with lower morning lines, so not a bad 1st leg.
Well there’s a Brown two-starter…..
Chad Brown takes the Kentucky Oaks with Always a Runner, in only her third start. Could it be an omen for tomorrow’s Derby?
OR could it be Gun Runner’s year? Fappiano again, just for Steve!
Emerging Market’s odds will likely drop after the convincing win of Always a Runner as they share the same story (reasons) for not running last year. His new PP 12 will help a lot; but Always a Runner’s uncle will have it more difficult than the Oaks winner.
Always a Runner was at least 4 lengths better in the Gazelle than Albus was in theWood Memorial and the daughter of Gun Runner had the best (Brisnet) last speed figure in the field. She was the deserving co-favorite with other three at 5 to 1.
The California girls did well though so it is good thing for So Happy and Potente….
Nelson, my heart says CW, however going with The Puma.
I’ve just finished hosting the annual Derby party at the senior living apartments where I reside. It really tired me out as I put a lot of work into it, but it was worth it as everybody had a great time which really made me feel good. I thought of you, Steve, and what you must go through to give us your highly anticipated weekly columns. As many have said, you have given us quite a ride this year on the Derby Trail and now, on the eve of the Derby, I’m somewhat sad that it’s ending. Thank you for all the hard work you have put in to give us a vivid look at these magnificent horses, one of whom will be crowned Derby champion tomorrow. What a gift you have.
In fact, you’re so good, that my “sweet six” are……
Danon Bourbon
Commandment
Renegade
Further Ado
Chief Wallabee
Golden Tempo
……. and I also have a future bet on Wonder Dean.
May the horse be with us!
Steve- NO torture required, pure pleasure as usual!! Thank you from the bottom of my heart for pouring your heart, soul and decades of observation into this analysis! Cheers!
I really appreciate that Deb. Thank you so much.
Did anyone see Jimmy Fallon’s Derby puppies last night? Every year he has puppies representing Derby horses lined up in a starting gate to run to a trough of food, and whoever gets there first is his prediction to win the Derby. The Puma got there first. My choice Renegade didn’t merely have a bad start–he didn’t break at all. He sat in the gate and watched the race. Hopefully his namesake will fare much better tomorrow.
Like everyone else, I want to say thank you for your Derby columns over the past several months. It was a rather rough winter in Vermont, and every week you reminded us that spring and the Derby were getting closer and closer. You also kept us well informed on the horses, and I learned things I otherwise would not have known. I appreciate all that. Now we’re actually here, and everything is going to come to a head tomorrow evening. I like Renegade first, Further Ado second, and Commandment third. My best wishes to everyone for a safe and happy Derby Day.
So great ro hear that Jiffy. Makes me feel good.
Which horse does everyone think has the best chance to hit the board. I think Commandment, but would love to hear other opinions.
Finally figured out HOW I’m going to bet, just not WHO yet lol
I would say either Commandment or The Puma.
OK, now that it’s crunch time, no more plunging into the unknown. Because of the high confusion level of this race, I have come up with the best handicapping angle that I will actually add to the column. Because today is confusing I am turning to yesterday, and I actually like how it turned out. I went back to Week 1 of the Rankings when everything was fresh and new. I took the 15 horses that were ranked. No. 1, 2, 14, and 15 departed the trail with an injury.. No 5, 8, 10, 11, and 12 simply didnt pan out and werent good enough to make the Derby. That leaves, No, 3, 4, 6. 7, 9, 13. Not bad after an arduous three-month journey. No. 4, Litmus Test, I dont believe is good enough. Now we are down to a five-horse trifecta box of the remaining five — Renegade, Commandment, Further Ado, Golden Tempo, and Incredibolt. I will take that any day. If I want to go one step further, I can go into Knocking on the Door and use the one first-start maiden winner who excited me, saying he “exhibited all the traits you want to see in a Derby horse.”. That was Chief Wallabee. So there is my (either 5 or 6-horse) trifecta box, decided 3 1/2 months ago.
I like that method, Steve! Glad for the mention of Incredibolt as he’s another on my list of horses I like.
My heat leaps every time Golden Tempo is mentioned favorably—- hope he pulls a Mine That Bird tomorrow! Thanks Steve!
SSHHHH! I’m with you on GT….lets keep it on the downlow while hes stol 30+ to 1
A Maxfield filly won 3rd race at Churchii loday.just sayi
This was so good. Thank you Steve.
I continue to have flashbacks to millionaire’s row at Belmont in the ‘70s, as I’m sure you do.
We were so lucky to experience that. And it’s one of the reasons you’re such an exceptional writer.
The best of times…
Thanks George. Great times and fun and camaraderie
Baffert said Litmus Test will not be on the lead, contrary to what most people think with his post position and blinkers on.
If Six Speed somehow misses the break / stumbles, and Pavlovian finds himself clear by a length…. I would be cheering for Steve and his family at that point. And think Pavlovian could most certainly hang on to get into the trifecta.
Just one interesting scenario that could unfold.
Further Ado will be my top pick. Emerging Market is my odds pick and those odds are lighter than advertised. I already have future wagers on those so will find one more to throw some money at. I’m struggling more than usual sorting out the rest. I watched the FL and AR Derby races again and see very little difference between Commandment and Renegade to explain the different TG figures. Commandment gets Saez and knowing Saez from that hole, that horse might very well be hanging out closer to the front than expected, and I think a good place to be this year. The early and pressing speed is quality and I’m not convinced a clouds horse can pull it off this year. Maybe I add Commandment as a slight overlay. FL Derby winners are historically extremely productive the the KY Derby. Agree on Steve’s Oaks exacta box with the caveat some of the speed scratched out but that many horses should still ensure an honest pace.
I forgot to mention that because of my previous column about plunging into the unknown I will put a saver win bet on Wonder Dean just in case his excellent Thoro-Graph numbers and pattern are correct.
This makes me feel more confident in my race pattern theory… sneaky good race > big race > another big race.
I also mentioned that he looks noticeably bigger, more filled out in the chest since the UAE. And gets the jockey that rode Forever Young in the Derby. Think he’s live for sure.
Thats a lot of black silks in the race now with Robusta in, though they should be fairly easy to tell apart. I always memorize all the silks. I saw Rich Strike coming way before Collmus did.
Just finished making picks for today’s (May 1) stakes races on Oaks day at Churchill Downs. As usual, squinting at stats for an hour or so gave me a headache, but here are my choices on a budget of less than $50:
Race 7 Unbridled Sydney (Grade 2T): Mae Town ($2 win); Mae Town/Shisospicy exacta box ($4)
Race 8 Eight Belles (Grade 2): Goodall ($5 win)
Race 9 Alysheba (Grade 2): Grande to win ($2 win); Grande, Skippy exacta box ($4)
Race 10 Modestry (Grade3T): Whiskey Decision ($2 win); Whiskey Decision, Gezora, Kathynmarissa exacta box (all three are Chad Brown horses)
Race 11 La Troienne (Grade1): Scalable ($2 win)
Race 12 Edgewood (2T): Just Aloof ($2 win)
Race 13 Kentucky Oaks (1): 11, 5, 4 Percy’s Bar, Counting Stars, Meaning Tri box ($12); 11,5,4 same horses exacta box ($6)
Tomorrow will be much tougher!
The longshot speed keeps pouring into the field.. and its all on the far inside and far outside. Weird race shaping up.
I just checked the FanDuel website. We can watch the first 7 races there today but not the last six races. No idea where we can watch the final six races.
This drives me crazy. Why can’t we have a place of our own? It should be the easiest thing in the world to watch the races. Instead, they keep us hopping around. FOX does the same thing.
Maybe it’s on NBC. Maybe not. I don’t really care for their coverage. Too much fluff IMO.
The Kentucky Oaks will be on NBC at 8pm EST tonight.
Still looking for the other 5 races. We might have to stream them.
Tommy, NBCSN will be carrying the races leading up to the Oaks.
Thanks, The Wiz!
I find it incredibly stupid that CDI does not put their track feed up on their YouTube channel, like Keeneland, and other tracks. Apparently, they want the least number of people to watch their races.
For me, the only way I can watch their races is via my ADW on my laptop, or on NBC.
Twinspires.com carries races at every track including CD of course. You can register and account free and no need to deposit any money, just log in and watch the races.
The Fan Duel SITE, maybe won’t carry them, but—id you can wager, then you can view the Churches track feed….
Churchill downs has an app
I don’t think Danon has a chance. Too many really good horses in here this year. Renegade, Commandment, The Puma, Chief Wallabee, Emerging Market, Further Ado. Who is the BEST horse? We will find that out as the year goes on. I think all six are sitting on top efforts. Who wins will depend on how the race unfolds, as always. And whether or not those quarter cracks and cracked heels are problematic tomorrow at 7pm. Shockingly, I have futures on Further Ado and Chief Wallabee. I think I am going to sit tight with those bets, and watch a cracking good race tomorrow.
Right to Party out….Robusta in.
Sorry to hear that — was hoping to see Right to Party’s hail Mary run to finish just out of the money!
Steve: I am overjoyed that I came across your story to kick off Oaks/Derby weekend. Your knowledge, creativity and enthusiasm for the game jumps off the pages. Best of luck today and tomorrow.
Thanks so much Jim.
Commandment? I noticed that you barely mentioned him in your final thoughts. Not doubting but would like to know your thoughts/ opinion on why leaving him ashore as the ship sails. Thanks as always
Read it again. Hes mentioned throughout the column
Just FYI, I have added several comments throughout the column on Commandment that I overlooked the first time.
It is great to be able to read any Steve Haskin article. I am hopelessly devoted.
On a more solemn note, am I the only person that thinks Todd Pletcher has a problem getting horses ready for Derby ? Look at the sheer volume of top 3yos he has had with talent match
Thank you Lawrence. It is food for thought. Todd is a great trainer but the fact is he has never won the Derby on a dry track and his two winners never won again.
Hi
I like Incredibolt to win; Right to Party to place.
It should be an exciting race.
I wish good luck to all of you who will be betting on the race.
greg (in Winnipeg)
Greg, if I hit the trifecta with Right to Party in it, I will have you to thank.
I had decided to leave him off. But after your comment, I looked again. $325K, improving, McPeek. Adding him back in.
I also remembered that I said the following in Steve’s week 11 column just after the Wood….
“If the Derby pace is hot, will be fun to hold a ticket with Right to Party.”
I love closers that are weaving in and out in the stretch, yet still gobbling up ground. Ala Code of Honor (2019 Florida Derby) and Lookin at Lee (2017 Arkansas Derby).
Hi Roan
I see that Right to Party was scratched due to lameness. I hope you didn’t bet too much on him. I hope the rest of your best come through.
greg (in Winnipeg)
Steve, always informative and entertaining. And like Arlingtonfan noted, you bring together a nice community of respectful fans. We all appreciate what you do and look forward each week. Good luck to you and everyone. I will be having a conversation with myself as to what the third horse in my tri will be!
Thank you very much Terry I appreciate it. Give my regards to myself.
Steve is the best and not many like him around anymore. Please don’t retire, Steeeeve!!!
I really think Renegade is by far the most likely winner….
Thanks for all the great work these last few months, Steve. Most of my wagers will focus on Commandment, but I’ll also have a few bucks on Pavlovian. His odds are way too high, and I would also love to read your column if Pavlovian could pull off the upset. Best of luck!
Renegade has that classic style…settles inside, way back and easily makes up ground, before blasting past like Unbridled! I just think he will be hard to hold back, big wide kick,..I see Potente and So Happy and Renegade, I THINK..western colts are for real…I KNOW Renegade is!..
Definitely good luck to you Dutch.
Danon Bourban-Chief Wallabe-Commandment is my Tri pick with Danon Bourban winning. Good luck
Completely agree Blake. Those are 3 that I will be using in my TRI. The 4th horse I’m using is Wonder Dean. Good luck !
With over one million in the win pool…Renegade is currently 5-1, and Potente is. currently 23-1…..both, in my opinion are great odds….
Ocelli who drew in after today’s scratch of Fulleffort I noticed is still a maiden. Does anyone know who is the last maiden to run in the Derby?
Publisher.
Thanks for that Digger.
One Eyed Tom?…(just a guess).…
Oh right…Publisher….
Steve, thanks for keeping it fun. While i’m not heavily invested in the derby, financially or emotionally, i do enjoy your setting the table for the various comments and opinions, for better or worse. Mostly better. Haven’t looked at the PPs yet, but planning to go with Renegade, Potente, and The Puma, in that order.
Kudos for your work this year. Although I have been a derby fan since the 1950’s, I did not start to learn handicapping and placing wagers in a serious way until 1999. Your analysis that year ( first time to read your work) led me to select Charismatic as my betting choice. I have won several derby bets since then, but that beautiful chestnut colt was my biggest score at 33/1. Your insightful derby diary blog is one my first stops on the derby trail every year since that first score in 99.. So Happy and Renegade are my picks this year.
Thsnk tou so much Griff. That was an eventful Triple Crown
Dear Steve,
Thanks again for your informative and entertaining KY Derby 152 analysis. I look forward to reading your column every year. I have been searching for signs from the Derby Gods all season.
I bet Maxfield Derby Sire in Future Pool 2. On April 7th, my husband who is usually a scotch drinker, brought home a bottle of Japanese “Bourbon” with a samurai on top. I told myself if Danon Bourbon draws post 7, that’s a sign.
Raising a glass to Steve Haskin and Danon Bourbon. The longshots and usual suspects are peppered throughout my future bets. I have cracked my eggs and whipped up my bets. May the stars align. Thanks for ALL the insight. Win or Lose, It’s been a heck of a ride.
Cheers- The Handicapping Housewife
Lol. Thank you Michie. That kind of handicapping is a lot better than all my stats. Hopefully he can handle all that traffic.
Steve,thanks again for all your astute comments and thoughts on the Derby.Enjoy reading your articles,the passion comes through in your writing.I also like Emerging Market,he could be a star in the making.Good luck to all in your choices Saturday and most importantly,may they all come home safely!
Thanks so much Jeff.
Further Ado for the win and then neck and neck with Paladin in the Breeders Cup. Gonna be the year of Gun Runner. How do you not go with the fastest horse in the field and far enough off the rail to avoid the insanity. Interesting that neither Candy Ride or Into MIschief were highly touted. Just that IM needs the right mares with stamina and some Mr Prospector.
You do not bet the fastes horse in the race…unless hes trained by TP r b b….Renegade is trained by TP… he if course will be the favorite…Further Ado, on the other hand, is NOT trained by pletcher….if Renegade shows up tomorrow with a leg missing, trust me, the TP fandom will still bet him hand over fist…Renegade is in my TRI wager but never on top…they changed the starting gate rtc etc…but you know what? Its still the 1hole….I wouldnt bet Big Red from the 2 hole!…I’m with you on FA all day….for the prople betting Renegade I will pray for you…
Well stated!
Thank you for your prayers.
Thanks DJD. How about Emerging Market #2. The Puma #3.
The format of interviewing yourself is a great choice for this handicapping column. It feels natural and the conversational tone is really enjoyable.
In fact self-questioning is a (critical thinking) technique recommended by many experts in communication to prepare speeches, and even for negotiations, among other applications.
In your self-interview, you pushed yourself to land on a winner. You were tough on yourself there but a tougher quesion would have been like this:
Steve, in hindsight Incredibolt was your top Derby horse at your first two rankings. You touted his steady improvement, his pedigree, and more importantly his mechanics __something you have said over and over is the real marker of a Derby horse.
So, what made you dismiss Incredibolt in this final handicapping analysis? Especially knowing that his current odds are an incredibolt 37 to 1 ! Is him a plausible playable overlay?
Just too many other horses with a better 3yo season and faster speed ratings it wouldn’t be a shock if he won. Hes still a terrific horse, but that Holy Bull dud really messed up his schedule.
Steve, I wanted to thank you, not only for sharing your bottomless knowledge but also for creating a true community here. It’s such a gift, especially for those of us whose racing-fan friends have gone on to that great pasture in the sky. Throughout the arduous process of moving this spring, I’ve kept coming back to your columns and to everyone’s comments as a welcome change from cleaning the oven at my old apartment, etc :). Such a joy to connect with fellow fans and share the excitement of awaiting the big day.
I really appreciate that. Thank you. I’m so happy we were all there for you to help the move experience.
Lovely comment arlingtonfan.
Outstanding!!
Thanks Chris.
I think this could be a case of “the other”.
The “other” Japanese horse is faster on TG numbers than Danon Bourbon, has the trainer that got TO Password to outrun his odds in 2024 to finish 5th and picks up Forever Young’s jockey from that same race.
The “other” Brad Cox horse has an improving figure line and gets the best Derby jockey in the world (as far as ITM finishes go) in his career.
Also, I’m surprised at how cold people are being on Commandment. The horse bullies his way through non-existent holes and creates his own space in tight areas. He now picks up one of the biggest bully jockeys (remember Saez on Maximum Security?). Initially I was of the opinion that if I liked Commandment, why not bet on the other two from the Florida Derby at longer odds? Well, as of this post, Commandment is 7-1, The Puma is 8-1 and Chief Wallabee is 9-1. Since I’m not getting the big value difference I expected, I see no reason to jump off Commandment, like Flavien and Irad did.
Good luck to all!
If anyone likes word games, you might note that the initials of the first four horses spell RAIL, which hopefully is the post position of the winner. Also, all of John Velazquez’s Derby winners have had names beginning with A (the first word, not the second). None of that is intended to be serious handicapping, but I found it interesting.
Steve, do you think The Puma is a horse who needs to be kept wide or out of traffic? Thats my only concern.
I think The Puma will run wherever you ask him to and give 100 percent every time.
We need a like button.
Cant believe you have gravitated to the same 2 horses that I have bet on. When listening to Jon White on the racing dudes earlier this week, he turned me onto Dannon Bourbon. He kept explaining that DB’s times were significantly faster than Forever Youngs, the year he strongly touted Forever young in the derby. But he also liked Emerging Market for 2nd. Because the horse only raced twice might scare people but he explained that between hurting himself in his stall and from a sickness, he never was as active as a 2 year old. But, he did train and was ready to go before the mishaps. I believe that Chad indicated Emerging Market was only 70% going into the LA Derby. If that is true, he could be primed for greatness. So I have wagered on those 2 as my primary bets, but a ton of combinations in exacta’s with them. I am just excited not having to bet the favorites although several of my exacta’s with emerging market dont appear to pay as much as you might expect them to. I think he goes off at odds lower than most people think.
Again, Thank you Steve! Reading your derby columns with your insight has been super helpful. Good luck to Everyone.
Thanks Scott. Hard to compare DB’s times with Forever Young. Different years, different races.
I want to know who is in charge of the betting money. Is it me or myself?
Neither of us have any to be in charge of.
Obviously Steve’s Wife ! lol
Touche’
Y’all are all funny. This is always a pleasure.
In addition to the graph I added below, I am just now getting to the comments. Many are brilliant and clever and others much appreciated, I have responded to most of them
Steve, please keep talking to yourself and sharing those fascinating conversations in your head. Priceless! I’m still hanging with Golden Tempo, the forgotten horse.
Thank you Double S. The only problem is I do that when I’m not writing a column and often I am not crazy about the answers;
😆😂🤣
It’s really tough when we argue with ourselves, who wins ? Me myself or I? Oh the pain
Steve, it’s now crunch time! The pitfall now is overthinking it! I can’t stuff anymore in my head! Handicapping done , betting strategy done. The only thing left is the paddock picks as a saver. Thanks for all the help! Full Blinkers and cotton stuffed in my ears! HAPPY DERBY
I have added the following paragraph and stat to the column, which I forgot on the original.
For those who have interest in So Happy, if you take the four major speed ratings (not sheets figs) — Beyer, Brisnet, Equibase, and TimeformUS — and take all the winners of the major preps, only four of them have gotten triple-digit figures from all four of the speed ratings — Further Ado and So Happy, who got a 100 on Beyer, 103 Brisnet, 100 Equibase, and 121 TimeformUS for the Santa Anita Derby. And that Timeform number is only one point below Further Ado’s lofty 122 and three points higher than Renegade’s Arkansas Derby. Also, So Happy has the second-fastest Thoro-Graph number (“0-plus or “1/4”) behind Further Ado’s “negative-2” in the Blue Grass. Just something to ponder. The main reason I haven’t included him in my bets is the fact that, as of late Thursday, he is the 6-1 second choice, and that is way way too low. But if the odds don’t matter to you, keep those stats in mind.
I appreciate the work and time that goes into this project. I have been a faithful reader for many years and I think that it’s not a job to you it’s the love of the game and the challenge of this race.
I am betting on Golden Tempo because I’ve seen him run twice now and he closes like a freight train but I sure wish my old buddy Calvin Borel was on him. I think that is how he wins.
Thanks for making it more enjoyable!
You are so right about that, Randall. I havent had a job since I left Wall Street in early 1969. My passion and my hobby became my profession, Thank you very much. And good luck with Golden Tempo.
I agree with you on Danon Bourbon. The top contenders seem closely matched so if there’s a chance that he’s something truly special, now’s the time to cash in on him.
I wish his jockey had some Derby experience but if he’s used to navigating big fields, that’s a plus.
That is my main concern. And the kickback.
Hi Steve
Thank you for providing such a clever, humorous approach to a very challenging Handicapping Analysis. I’m encouraged that you have a high regard for Danon Bourbon, who I boxed (at 23-1) with Potente (at 16-1) in a $20.00 exacta wager, in Pool 6. In addition, I boxed Renegade with Potente in a $50.00 exacta, in Pool 6, and a $10.00 exacta box in Pool 5. I have several exacta wagers in Pools 2,3,4,5 that are still alive.
On Derby Day, I plan on taking several shots at the Super Hi-5, using three horses on top in the first three slots, with the longshots underneath in the 4th and 5th slots.
Currently, my top three are Renegade, Danon Bourbon and Further Ado.
Other horses that I’ll wheel on top, in the first three slots, are Potente, Emerging Market and So Happy. The Super Hi-5 payout is usually over the moon, so in an attempt to hit that jackpot, I’ll play several combinations.
With respect to betting the Kentucky Derby, an “educated guess” is what most of us rely on. Over the years, your vast knowledge of horse racing in general, and the Derby in particular, must be factored into the wagering process.
Thanks again, Steve. The fact that you provide your vast knowledge for free, is much appreciated by all your loyal followers.
Good luck with your wagers.
Thanks very much, Bill. If you look at the paragraph above that I added to the column, you will see that the consensus says the Santa Anita Derby was a very fast race. And no reason why Potente cant improve big-time off it, taking back this time. And he currently is 24-1.
You’re welcome, Steve
The reason I’m so high on Emerging Market and So Happy, is both colts “could” carry the X-Factor large heart gene. Emerging Market’s pedigree is the personification of class and stamina, top and bottom. If there’s a horse in this year’s Derby that is better suited for the Classic distance, I would like to know his name.
I can see that in both of them. Remember, Big Brown was by a pure sprinter, but had the X-factor large heart gene.
Thanks for giving credence to the X-Factor large heart gene concept. There are those that dismiss it as an unproven science.
Further Ado, Intrepido, Golden Tempo, Commandment and Albus “could” carry the large heart gene as well.
Just something to keep in mind.
Welp, after all the analysis, these are my strongest opinions…
* My Dynamic Duo for 2026 is Potente and Wonder Dean.
* I think Further Ado is the one other horse that can win.
Good luck to all!
How about The Churchill Downs, race #10 on Saturday? Disco Time, Cornucopian, Disruptor, Hall of Fame, Knightsbridge, Imagination, Crazy Mason, and Banishing. With a few others. I hope they all show up.
Looking forward to seeing Knightsbridge again after the way he has come back,
I thought last years Churchill Downs Stake could have qualified as race of year (if not at least one of the most exciting finishes) with Mindframe, Nysos, Bookem Danno, Banishing and many other good ones. This one looks very good too. Will be rooting for Cornicopian and Imagination as both are coming into the race in great shape, but they both will have their work cut out for them as Knightsbridge looks to be in top form.
There will be some real standouts and old friends on the Oaks and Derby undercards, and I’m excited about those races! In addition to the fantastic group in The Churchill Downs, I’m excited to see Shessospicy in the Unbridled Sidney, looking to follow in Caravel’s footsteps. I’m pulling for the old man, Skippylongstocking, and my old flame East Avenue in the Alysheba.
Bet with your brain or with your heart? That’s my dilemma this year.
Last year, I knew. I was only as certain of the winner a few times in all these years. Fusaichi Pegasus, Silver Charm, American Pharoah, and Sovereignty last year. Oh, I hit some other winners. But not with certainty. I just got lucky.
This year, my numbers say that all ten of the contenders are pretty close. Pretty much a grab bag. Then there are the two Japanese Horses.
My brain says that I have 3 future bet horses in the field but don’t feel all that great about them. Why not put my big Derby bet on another horse to give myself a fourth chance at a score? A horse like Renegade who I only have in future exactas or one of the Japanese runners. I prefer Danon Bourbon of the two.
That’s what I ought to do.
But my heart is with Bill Mott and Junior Alvarado who came through for me last year.
“The Chief” has only one win in his three starts. He’s been close in his last two. But he has finished behind Commandment and The Puma. Maybe the blinkers will move him up 2 lengths. Maybe not. “The Chief” has looked pretty good this week.
Sovereignty was best on looks last year. But there are others that look as good as
Chief Wallabee this year. Renegade, Emerging Market, and the now scratched Fulleffort to name a few. I didn’t like the way that Commandment looked yesterday over the wet track. Maybe it was the track. Whatever.
I’m going with my heart and hoping to get lucky. “The Chief” for me.
My philosophy being that there are 27 races over the two-day Oaks/Derby extravaganza. If not in the Derby, maybe I can make up for it in a few of the other 26 races. I will be betting every last one of them. A recipe for disaster in itself.
Me, myself and Steve.
“Kathy H. calls it a must read”
“Bill D says it’s almost of good as Casey’s Shadow”
“The Daily Planet says one of the years best”
“Michael Keaton the star of Gung Ho gives two really big Thumbs up”
LOL!
LOL. Very good Mort. I respect all those reviews, even though there was a war movie in the ’50s called “Gung-Ho” and you know how that came out
Is it just me or are the FanDuel TV commentators making sly remarks about their pending unemployment?
I also want to say that I enjoyed the format of Steve Haskin interviewing himself about who he liked in the Derby. It worked.
I catch myself talking to myself all the time.
I’m gonna have to make a transcript of that interview
So Happy, The Puma, Commandment, Further Ado, Renegade and Potente
I do like Wonder Dean as well.
My top 6.
Will not jinx Pavlovian either.
Liked this format Steve and the me-vs-myself conversation! I have those all the time!
Best of luck everyone and may the racing gods shine down on all the horses and jockeys with safe returns after the race.
What Clever writing Steve!, answering all the questions that we, the readers may still have. Indeed, your love and fandom of horse racing, comes through, not only with your vast knowledge of the sport, but also with your palpable and contagious excitement of the upcoming main event!. Thank you sir, for giving us the proper tools, to learn and understand more, about the Best 2 minutes in sports!.
Thanks very much Soldes. I really appreciate that.
Thanks a million for the (as always) awesome Derby Rankings ride over the last 3 months! It’s been a real pleasure to read these columns every week. Last year Sovereignty was a relatively easy decision for me. This year has been (shall I say) a bit more of a crapshoot. Based on the Thorograph pattern you shared and final fractions, I like Renegade a lot, though I’m certainly not crazy about his post position. However, I have a big soft spot for Chief Wallabee (same connections as Sovereignty whom I adore), and have loved the way he’s trained with the blinkers the last couple of weeks. I’ll be putting money on both, and maybe throw a bit on a couple of longshots.
My 10 year old son (who loves the Charlton Heston movie “The 10 Commandments”) is going for…. Commandment. 🙂
Thanks Liz, at 10 years old, “Thou Shalt Not Wager on the Ponies”
What a great read!!
Steve, thank you so much for sharing your thoughts over the last 3 months, you are very much appreciated by all.
Good luck everyone!
I appreciate that Bruce, Thank you!
Thank you again for all of the great 2026 Kentucky Derby updates. No matter who wins, you’re always in the winner’s circle. Most Appreciative!
Thank you so much Bob.
Very good as always Steve! Good luck and I agree on Danon Bourbon, def worth a shot in this field.
Let met first say since I never comment that I have read and followed Steve since 2010, even going back to the days he wrote for the Bloodhorse. He gets all the credit when I cashed a ticket in 2011, when picking Animal Kingdom to win. I still recall how high he was on the horse just based off watching him on the track and workouts. Thank you for all you do and always appreciate your analysis. And thanks as well for posting the thorough graph figures for the horses, year after year for free.
After the Florida Derby, I was high on The Puma. But digging into the stats more, I am now tossing completely for 1st and 2nd. I’ll probably still include for 3rd in the Trifecta because it is hard to ignore that he has the highest rag number in the field. But I have every DRF Past Performances since 2000 and Rag Sheets since 2006 and I look for stats and patterns from previous Derbies to compare for future ones and rule out specific horses despite the figures and results to date. Here is a big negative stat on The Puma.
Since 2000(excluding the 2020 Derby since it was run in September)
Horses with 4+ starts and didn’t race as a two-year old(all were in 3-year old season leading up to the Derby.)
Record: 12 starts, 0 wins, 1 second and 1 third.
2000 – Wheelaway (5th), Curule (7th), and Trippi (11th)
2003 – Atswhatimtalkinabout (4th)
2005 – Greeley’s Galaxy (11th)
2011 – Midnight Interlude (16th)
2012 – Bodemeister (2nd)
2013 – Verranzano (14th)
2015 – MUBTAAHIJ-IR (8th)
2017 – Battle of Midway (3rd) **Sloppy Track**
2018 – Magnum Moon (19th)
2022 – Happy Jack (14th)
My guess would be the poor performances of these horses overall is due to rushing the horse into the Derby and perhaps tired or ran their top effort already. I know many say now that stats don’t matter any longer since a few have been broken in recent memory like not having run as a two-year old. Some of that I think is due to slower horses and weaker fields overall in the last 10 years. Like for example, Justify. If he ran in the 2007 derby with Street Sense, Hard Spun and Curlin, he would have likely finished off the board and that stat would have not happened.
I could now say the same for The Puma. Maybe this stat I posted won’t apply this year as the field overall is much weaker and he sports the highest Rag number. And half the field hasn’t even run in the single digits yet. It is hard to toss completely based on that. I don’t like though they haven’t worked the horse at Churchill.
Great stuff. Mark. Thanks for sharing. So happy to hear you had Animal Kingdom. I remember vividly watching his work.
Mark, it’s good to know there’s a statistical reason for not betting The Puma, although I like the horse a lot. I’ve been watching the Derby for more than 50 years, so stats like this one make sense to me. In a year like 2026 with so many win candidates, it’s one way of whittling down the list to arrive at a potential winner (always my goal since I’m not much of a gambler). One stat I especially like this year is the homebred rule — horses that are bred by their owners tend to win more than their share of Derbies. I’m including almost all of the six in this year’s field in my betting considerations. Good luck with your wagers!
Very interesting.
I could not agree more with your selections. We are as paired up as we have ever been over the last 25? years of reading your Derby Column. I don’t know whether to start tearing my tickets up now (like Sonny and his crew) or betting twice what I was going to bet. This is a first and I am grinning from ear to ear because there is no way Steve Haskin is going to turn into Eddie the Mush after all these years. Good luck and keep your Sake lightly chilled, KANPAI! Now comes the hard part. How to wager this group. One option I am considering is singling Renegade at all four levels of my Super and keying EM, DBourbon, on all four levels, placing Further ado, the Puma, Golden Tempo, So Happy, Fulleffort on the other levels. The reason I would single Renegade is simply because I believe the race is going set up best for him via a hot pace. I. have the most confidence in him hitting the board. Dbourbon and EM will hopefully not hug the front too close, it could melt more than just the leaders. Well thanks again for all the hard work on this year’s Derby. You always do the most thorough job on this event and I wouldn’t miss it for all the Sake in Tokyo. Domo Arigato.
Replacing Fulleffort with Chief Wallabee. Glad they caught this early. Best of recovery to Fulleffort.
Steve: I laughed when I saw you’d decided to do a pro and con with yourself. It hits the sweet spot for this last and most important column on the Derby trail. The internal dialog you had with yourself is exactly what’s been going on in my head these last few days. I was on a trip without my laptop, so going over the field in my head was all I could do, besides constantly check posts here on my phone.
I did spend a couple of minutes looking over stats last night and concluded Renegade is the most likely winner. When you came out with Danon Bourbon today, I thought: THERE’s my boxed exacta!
I can’t thank you enough for the brilliance of your writing, the magnificence of your insights, and the happy little racing community you’ve created here. Big air kiss.
Thank you Ms B. Right back at ya. Its a stab but what the heck
Any word on why they are keeping Fulleffort in the barn?
Bone chip on ankle.
Thanks, Lynda .
Steve you are the John Henry of Horse Racing Writers, that is to say: you’re work has become more thorough, as you age….thanks, for your effort, 2026 will be remembered for the wide open-ness, of the Derby Trail …
After his 2nd start win, in The San Felipe, I realized Bob had qualified Potente, and was wishing for a good 2nd, in The Santa Anita Derby, and I got my wish, so I’m on him, on Saturday, with a saver on So Happy…but it’s Renegade, that will have my attention and respect, I just think his kick trumps the entire field, when Oaklawn is dry and fast… it’s not easy to ship in and win, all Renegade did was look the best of this field!
So a big across the board wager on Potente….a small one on So Happy….with Renegade on top of both….I like others but my old friend Mel always said “whittle it down, that’s handicapping”….in honor of Ol Mel (I never knew his last name), I’ll stick with that, and if I don’t win ….mehopes the players on here take’em down!
Thank you very much Mathew especially since I wrote the book on John Henry.
And then there were… still 20.
Really, really bummed about Fulleffort. Messed up my top 5 a good bit. He was in draw reins – full Rollkur – this morning, and we watched him stumble near the start of his gallop. I was worried by that, and unsurprised about the scratch. Still very disappointed. Thought he had an Animal Kingdom-like chance.
I’m bummed about him too, Katy.
Great analysis as always Steve. I am also thinking of venturing into the unknown with Danon Bourbon. John White kind of convinced me with his comments about him on At the Races. Best of luck to all!
Nice work all year Steve. Many thanks !
Curious your omission of Commandment?
I mentioned him early on. I didnt want to start liking too many horses. Ragozin numbers very good but Thoro-Graph has him moving forward but he would have to improve more than he ever has. Of course he has a big chance to win but at his low odds I had to draw the line somewhere and his training although good was not as eye catching as some of the others
Thank you Steve for your great work all season! Wow! As evidenced by your column, trying to handicap this Rubik’s Cube of a race is daunting. With that said I am in total agreement with your analysis. Not sure if that’s good, scary or both. But based on past performance I’m going with good! I would only add that along with Golden Tempo to spice things up, adding Wonder Dean underneath in your exotics might be worth a few shekels as well. Good Luck to everyone!
Best,
Hammer
I totly agree Hammer. Mentioned him last week as one of the Unknown factors. I would definitely put a saver on him at big odds. Was afraid of mentioning too many horses.
Terrific analysis. Thanks.
With Fulleffort scratched, I have edited the column accordingly. And there were lots of mentions of him. I thought he was very live.
I feel bad because I know how much you liked Fulleffort. He looked really good in his run around the track yesterday. It just shows how these things can pop up overnight.
Hi Steve,
The Puma has not worked in 12 days, will be 14 days on race day.
Is there any reason for him not working?
That is Delgado’s style. He trains for stamina .ore than speed and he has put him through a lot this year. Wants hi. Fresh as possible.
Thanks. Yes, thought so, I looked at Puma’s PP and he had always trained a week before a race.
Steve
Putting in three months of solid Kentucky Derby research and analysis takes real commitment.You’ve done an awesome job (as usual) with it. Loved your take on Danon Bourbon . Great job !!!
Thank you very much Mark
Can Great White one Ocelli compete? I completely ignored Rich Strike and don’t want to make that mistake again.
I meant Great White or Ocelli. Watched Great white on Fan Duel Tv this morning and he looked great.
Fullefforrt scratched. Ocelli in?
Currently in live Derby wagering, 1/4 of the field is under 10-1 (Renegade, FA, SH, Commandment, The Puma).
Also, more than a few horses are significantly below morning line odds:
DB 20-1 ml currently 14-1
SH 15-1; 6-1
The Puma 10-1; 6-1
Wonder Dean 30-1; 20-1
It seems that the futures market has a productive way to bet this year’s Derby:
I have Renegade at 18-1;
Commandment at 30-1;
Danon Bourbon at 36-1;
So Happy at 31-1;
Chief Wallabee 50-1
Steve: best of luck on your bets; I am going to rely on my futures bets this year. Going to play a few ‘caveman’ trifectas.
‘has been a productive’
Biggy, talk about having all the bases covered! You look to be sitting pretty if any of those five win the race. Good luck to you. I’m not much of a gambler, but maybe I’ll take a shot at futures myself next year.
Ms Blacktype:
Thanks so much: I really hope you do futures bets next year: They are very enjoyable (sometimes lucrative) and keep me engaged from Breeders Cup until now!
I really enjoy and learn from your comments.
Thanks, Biggy! I learn so much from you and so many of the different commentators here. It makes the Derby trail so enjoyable.
In a year this wide open, most of them run the same speed with different styles, picking Dannon Bourbon is a good pick.
I might be a homer but I feel the two out of the Santa Anita Derby are the fastest of the home horses. So Happy improved 2nd time around two turns in only his 4th start. He can improve again and his stalking style is perfect for a 20 horse field.
Potente has only run 3 times and in the SA Derby he had to go to the lead and he did not fade he just got passed. He is big and strong and looks to have improved in his training. If he reverts back to stalking as he did in the San Felipe, watch out.
My two WPS wagers and my two in the exotics.
I also love Dannon Bourbon and he will be a small WPS and used in all the exotics.
For the Super I will mix in the usual suspects, Chief,Puma, Renegade, Emerging Market.
Hopefully I am up and playing with House money for the big race. If not small wagers .
Great Season of articles Steve!
Thank you for another season of analysis, and great information colorfully presented. I love Damon and Emerging but am also fond of Six Speed. This may be a good place to ask: any similarities to Big Red? At least to the extent of having speed and stamina breeding?
Thanks very much.
Omg…..my top 2 are So Happy ans Emerging Market. Im very much on Danon Bourbon, Fulleffort,Furthur Ado and Commandment…good luck my friend