2026 Kentucky Derby Rankings – Fappiano Feature
There are two parts to this column. One is about a dominating force not only in this year’s Kentucky Derby, but in the entire racing and breeding industry, and the story and the genius behind that force. The second part is simply a partial update of the Derby Rankings based on new information gathered since last week’s rankings. Stay tuned next week for an in depth look at the two Japanese horses in this year’s Derby. Could this finally be their year? We also will have any additional updates to the Derby picture and several early upset and overlay possibilities. Then the serious analysis begins. ~ Steve Haskin
Fappiano: The Derby is In His Blood
By Steve Haskin
Every year for the last dozen or so years of John Nerud’s life, my wife and I would drive to his estate in Old Brookville, Long Island to celebrate his birthday with him. When he died in 2015 at age 102, he left a legacy that will remain a major part of racing for all time. Most of us are aware that Nerud gave us legends from Dr. Fager and Ta Wee to Wayne Lukas, who he mentored and to whom he gave his first classic winner Codex. He also built a breeding empire in Florida and helped found the Breeders’ Cup, behind which he was a driving force, heading the marketing committee and making the event a national spectacle. No one could discover talent and create legends like Nerud, who built Tartan Stable and Tartan Farms into the first Florida-based racing and breeding powerhouse. Whether as a trainer, owner, breeder, marketer, or executive, Nerud could do it all and changed the face of racing in America.
But not many realize that arguably the biggest impact he had on racing and breeding was creating a horse not everyone is familiar with. Whenever the subject of his beautiful home came up, Nerud’s response was always the same: “Fappiano paid for it.”
The records show that Fappiano, a late May foal born in 1977, ran 17 times and won 10 races, including the Metropolitan and Forego Handicaps, and earned $370,213. So, why three weeks before the Kentucky Derby are we writing about him? At this time, of the 20 leading point earners, make it 21, with Chief Wallabee likely to get in, 17 trace to Fappiano through his sons and sire line.
But this is the farthest thing from an anomaly. Among the major stars who come from Fappiano and his sire line are: American Pharoah, Arrogate, Tapit, Gun Runner, Flightline, Unbridled, Empire Maker, Cody’s Wish, Saint Liam, White Abarrio, Constitution, Unbridled’s Song, Essential Quality, Candy Ride, Pioneerof the Nile, Real Quiet, Always Dreaming, Orb. Grindstone, Birdstone, Classic Empire, Bodemeister, Tiz the Law, Epicenter, Two Phil’s, and in the past couple of years alone, Sovereignty, Journalism, Sierra Lerone, Fierceness, Magnitude, Nysos, Arcangelo, Mindframe, Seize the Grey, and last year’s 2-year-old champion Ted Noffey. In case you missed it, seven of the horses mentioned above won the Kentucky Derby and seven finished second.
Although it is difiicult to imagine him making a bigger impact than that on the breed, what if he hadn’t died at the young age of 13 from laminitis?
But before we break down this year’s Derby horses who trace to Fappiano, let’s go back 50 years to the spring of 1976. Nerud had been looking for the right stallion to breed to his young broodmare Killaloe, a daughter of Dr. Fager who had recently given birth to her first foal, a filly by What a Pleasure. Nerud was particularly fond of one young, but unheralded, Florida stallion named Mr. Prospector, an extremely fast sprinter by Raise a Native who was owned by A.I. “Butch” Savin, and was standing for a stud fee of $7,500 at Savin’s Aisco Farm in Ocala.
Nerud loved speed and knew what kind of mares to cross it with. It was no accident that he had bred brother and sister Dr. Fager and Ta Wee, who combined to win four consecutive Sprint championships (two apiece) and are both in the Hall of Fame. Their dam Aspidistra had won two races in 14 starts for meager earnings of $5,115 and was so slow her two victories, both at Fair Grounds going six furlongs, were run in a pedestrian 1:14 3/5 and 1:14 4/5. But Nerud made her one of the great producers of all time, breeding her to his stallions Rough’n Tumble, who was hampered by a plastic foot, and Intentionally, who he had fallen in love with and purchased for $750,000 as a racehorse.
Nerud was detemined to breed Killaloe to Mr. Prospector even though she had produced a very late foal that year. He knew Mr. Prospector had set a new six-furlong track record of 1:07 4/5 at Gulfstream and had the breeding in his female family, with his dam being by Nashua and second dam by Count Fleet, to sire fast horses who could carry their speed a distance of ground. He also knew how tough Mr. Prospector was, having withstood Jimmy Croll’s hard training.
But there was a problem. Because Killaloe had given birth so late in the year, Savin did not want Mr. Prospector having any May foals, so he turned Nerud down. He apparently didn’t know John Nerud, who usually got what he wanted.
In typical Nerud fashion, he told Savin, “Butch, you’re so rich you don’t want to take my money? Look out the window and tell me what the hell Mr. Prospector is doing now.” Savin told him, “Nothing,” to which Nerud replied, “Well, neither is my mare. Let me worry about having a May foal.” Savin finally agreed, and Nerud bred Killaloe to Mr. Prospector. As expected, the resulting foal was born very late on May 19, and Nerud named him after the well-respected New York Times sports writer and columnist Joe Nichols, whose birth name was Giuseppe Fappiano.
Nerud would have only one regret. “I should have bought half-interest in Mr. Prospector and kept him in Florida,” he said. One year after Fappiano was born, Mr. Prospector became the nations’s leading freshman sire of 1978, and in 1980 he was relocated to Claiborne Farm in Paris, Kentucky where he would become one of the most influential stallions in history.
But Nerud was about to start a breeding dynasty of his own after retiring Fappiano to Tartan Farm and syndicating him for $300,000 a share. One of the first people to greet the new stallion was Kim Heath, who, along with her husband Bonnie Heath III, own the famed Bonnie Heath Farm in Ocala that was founded by Heath’s father Bonnie M. Heath. Along with his business partner Jack Dudley, the elder Heath purchased a 2-year-old colt named Needles just as they had been contemplating getting out of the game. Needles would go on to not only become the first Florida-bred to win the Kentucky Derby, he was the first Florida-bred to ever run in it. This year will be the 70th anniversary of that historic victory.
Kim had fallen in love with Fappiano as a racehorse and couldn’t wait to see him. “I was at the Tartan Stud barn right after he arrived,” she said. “It seems like yesterday. He was just turned out in his paddock, jogging around and checking out his new territory. He radiated his majestic presence. I took a deep breath and smiled.”
Sadly, Fappiano’s premature death in 1990 was a crushing blow to Nerud, Tartan Farms, and the entire breeding industry. To accomplish what he has done in such a short period of time as a stallion is nothing short of amazing, as one can see from the aforementioned Who’s Who list of superstars.
It has been 36 years since Fappiano’s death, and his influence on the breeding industry continues to grow each year, either through his sons or his sire lines. His most influential son has been Kentucky Derby and Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Unbridled, who Nerud bred, but had to sell when Tartan Farms’ owner James Binger, son-in-law of Tartan’s founder William McKnight, decided in 1987 to disperse 90 percent of the farm’s breeding stock. Nerud had built Tartan for McKnight, who died in 1978, and had full say in all racing and breeding decisions before eventually owning and breeding in his own name.
It took Nerud 10 years of meticulous breeding, combining the perfect blend of speed and stamina, to get Unbridled, who was a foal when the Tartan breeding stock was dispersed. “I really wanted to keep him, but I had given my word I was going to sell all the babies and all the horses in training, and I had to keep my word,” he said. So he did the next best thing by selling the weanling to his longtime client and friend Bentley Smith, representing Mrs. Frances Genter for $70,000. Nerud always had a close relationship with Mrs. Genter, whose first big horse, In Reality, by Nerud’s stallion Intentionally, was born and raised at Tartan Farms in the same crop as Dr. Fager, who would become his nemesis on the racetrack.
Nerud began his quest to breed the perfect racehorse by breeding Aspidistra, dam of Dr. Fager and Ta Wee, to Buckpasser, giving him the best of speed and stamina, as well as inbreeding to two of his favorite lines, Man o’ War through War Admiral and the great producer La Troienne. He then bred the resulting foal, named Magic, to In Reality, who was inbred to Man o’War’s son War Relic. Magic’s foal, named Charedi wasn’t a top-class racehorse but had plenty of speed, so Nerud bred her to one of the most stamina-oriented stallions in the world, Le Fabuleux, and got a filly named Gana Facil, who was a decent racehorse at a mile to 1 1/16 miles. With speed and stamina in her pedigree, Nerud had the kind of mare who he felt would be perfect for Fappiano, who could sire horses at any distance.
The result of that mating was Unbridled, who was everything Nerud had been attempting to get during those 10 years. Not only did Unbridled win the Kentucky Derby and the Breeders’ Cup Classic, he also had the speed to run seven furlongs in a blazing 1:21 flat at Arlington Park, winning by 6 1/2 lengths; 1:21 4/5 at Gulfstream, winning by three lengths; and a mile in 1:34 2/5 at Arlington, winning by 11 1/2 lengths.
Unbridled would begin an amazing sire line, along with a few special daughters, that resulted in many of the great horses mentioned earlier, through stallions such as Unbridled’s Song, Liam’s Map, Empire Maker, and Broken Vow. From those stallions alone have come 2026 Derby horses The Puma, Emerging Market, So Happy, and Fulleffort. From Unbridled’s daughter Tap Your Heels and her son Tapit have come Chief Wallabee, The Puma, Silent Tactic, Danon Bourbon, and Right to Party. From Unbridled’s daughter Lady Liberty and her son Orb comes Commandment; from his daughter Turbo Dream comes Albus; and from his daughter Unbridled Lassie comes Incredibolt. So from Unbridled alone has come the winners of this year’s Florida Derby, Santa Anita Derby, Louisiana Derby, Tampa Bay Derby. Virginia Derby, Wood Memorial, Jeff Ruby Steaks, and the runners-up in the Florida Derby, Wood Memorial, and Rebel Stakes. No. 23 on the earnings list is Grade 1 winner Intrepido, who likely will run if he gets is. He traces to Unbridled through Unbridled’s Song and his son Songandaprayer. Unfortunately, one who won’t make the Derby is last year’s 2-year-old champion Ted Noffey, who traces to Unbridled’s Song through his son Old Fashioned.
Perhaps the most prolific of Fappiano’s sire lines over the years has to be from his son Cryptoclearance all the way through Ride the Rails, Candy Ride, and Gun Runner. This year, that line has produced Blue Grass Stakes winner Further Ado, Louisiana Derby winner Emerging Market, and Silent Tactic, who won or placed in all four of Oaklawn Park’s major 3-year-old stakes. And we’ll add the currently injured Paladin, winner of the Risen Star Stakes.
Another major influence bred by Nerud is Fappiano’s son Quiet American. To get Quiet American, Nerud took inbreeding to another level when he mated Fappiano, a grandson of Dr. Fager, to Demure, a daughter of Dr. Fager and sold their yearling colt to Sheikh Mohammed for $300,000. As one would expect, Quiet American, who stood at Gainesborough Farm and then Darley at Jonabell Farm, would become a top-class miler, winning the NYRA Mile (now the Cigar Mile) in a blazing 1:32 4/5, and San Diego Handicap, defeating the great mare Bayakoa. From his family this year have come Arkansas Derby winner and new Kentucky Derby favorite Renegade; Blue Grass winner Further Ado; LeComte Stakes winner Golden Tempo, undefeated Japanese horse Danon Bourbon, Blue Grass runner-up Ottinho; Jeff Ruby runner-up Stark Contrast, and Rebel Stakes winner Class President, who will miss the Derby due to bone bruising. Several of these are from Quiet American’s daughter Cara Rafaela and her son Bernardini.
As you can also deduce, a number of these Derby horses are also inbred to Fappiano. Of the few Derby prospects who do not trace to Fappiano, it must be noted that San Felipe winner Potente’s female family does trace directly to Dr. Fager; Sunland Derby winner Pavlovian’s broodmare sire Bellamy Road traces to the Nerud-owned and bred Cozzene; and UAE 2,000 Guineas winner and UAE Derby runner-up Six Speed traces top Nerud-breds Great Above, Minnesota Mac, and twice to Ta Wee. One horse who is hovering above the Top 20 whose status is unceretain is Iron Honor, who traces to Dr. Fager. So the only horse in this year’s Kentucky Derby picture who has no connection to Nerud is the Japanese-bred Wonder Dean, as well as Risen Star runner-up Chip Honcho if he runs.
Looking at this year’s Kentucky Oaks, of the top 20 point getters, 16 trace to Fappiano, including eight of the top 10, with all of them tracing to either Unbridled, Quiet American, or Tapit.
And to top everything off, in Saturday’s Lexington Stakes, the 32-1 winner Trendsetter is inbred top and bottom to Quiet American and the runner-up The Hell We Did’s broodmare sire is by Fappiano.
It is safe to say that Fappiano has accomplished through his sons what Secretariat has accomplished through his daughters, mainly Weekend Surprise, Terlingua, and Secrettame.
It would be a gross understatement to say that John Nerud has left a lasting legacy on just about every aspect of the racing and breeding industry. Even death had a tough time beating him. Several days before he finally left us at 102, he was pronounced dead. His son Jan called his father’s longtime publicist Lance Bell and simply said, “He’s gone.” A few minutes later, Jan called him back and said, “You’re not going to believe this…he’s back.”
That was 11 years ago, and if you look at the breeding of this year’s Kentucky Derby horses, and all the great champions of the past 15 years, you will come to the realization that he never left.
Derby Rankings Updates
Opinions and conclusions can change quickly on the Derby trail as one keeps processing new information and reacting to gut feelings. Last week, we didn’t have Thoro-Graph numbers, enough pedigree and video information, and, yes, jockey information. So there are several updates with additional comments.
RENEGADE’S spot at No. 1 is more than secure, especially with his regular rider Irad Ortiz having given up the mount on Commandment and then Further Ado in order to stay with Renegade. Whether that decision is based on the horse or the trainer, Ortiz and his agent are well aware he is giving up two potential Derby winners.
I believe THE PUMA is going to get a bit lost in all the talk about Renegade, Further Ado, and Commandment, and perthaps even Chief Wallabee, who still has a strong following. But he still is the only horse to have run against all four. And he has run against at least one of them in all four of his career starts and has finished first, second twice, and third, despite not having a clean trip in any of them. I just have no idea how high this colt’s ceiling is, and his Thoro-Graph pattern suggests a solid move forward in the Derby.
Even with FURTHER ADO coming off an 11-length romp in the Blue Grass Stakes and a 106 Beyer figure, many are still looking for chinks in his armor. Of course you can say his two best races by a mile have been at Keeneland, and that is true. And you can say he didn’t beat much in the Blue Grass, and that is also true. And you can say that his huge jump on Thoro-Graph from a “5 1/2” to a “negative-2” has “bounce” written all over it. And that may appear to be true, but the way I look at it, Keeneland or no Keeneland, he is by far the fastest horse in the race, and here is the reason why he may not bounce at all, or if he does regress a little it will still be fast enough to win the Derby. If any horse in the race were to leap 7 1/2 points well into negative territory I would say that should definitely result in a bounce. But he has such a strong foundation behind him, having already run a “negative-1” as a 2-year-old, that this was really only one point faster than he ran last year. And you could look at it that his “5 1/4” in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes was his expected “bounce,” coming off a career-best number and that the Tampa Bay Derby was nothing more than a prep off a 3 1/2-month layoff to set him up for his Grade 1 shot in the Blue Grass. So having already built such a solid foundation of speed at 2, this “negative-2” was right in his wheelhouse and he can easily pair that up, give or take a point, in the Derby.
Now there is one point I must bring up because there is no way to know if it will have any bearing on the Derby or not. I did not like the way Irad Ortiz pushed him all the way to wire, while waving the stick at him, even though he already had the race easily won at the eighth pole. While he was waving the stick at him, the colt jumped to his left lead going over some tire tracks. It was as if there was no thought at all of saving something for the Derby, considering I can’t think of a Derby winner coming off a double-digit margin victory in his final prep. The closest was Spend A Buck’s 9 1/2-length romp over a blazing track at Garden State that followed a 10 1/2-length victory also over another juiced-up Garden State surface. He opened a six-length lead in the Derby and stayed there the entire race. Ortiz then takes off Further Ado to ride Renegade in the Derby. The good news is that he will be replaced by the veteran John Velazquez, who should fit a tactical speed horse like Further Ado perfectly. He has soft hands, is very patient, and is a strong finisher.
I have to mention COMMANDMENT because I guarantee you no horse has won the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby and had his jockey after each race take off him to ride another horse. So he loses Ortiz and Flavien Prat and gets Luis Saez. If horses were NFL players who held a grudge and had a chip on their shoulder due to a lack of respect, you can be sure he would be running even harder than he usually does to win the Derby, especially if he hooks up in the stretch with Ortiz on Renegade or Flavien Prat on Emerging Market. The way he bulled his way through two horses, shoving them aside, in his maiden win, and how aggressively he gallops out after his races, I wouldn’t want to get on his bad side. And how badly does Saez want this, being the only jockey in the history of the Derby to be disqualified from first by the stewards for interference.
Staying on the subject of Brad Cox’s Derby horses, it looks like FULLEFFORT is going to be a definite play for me at a fairly big price and he could very well have moved up a notch or two in the Rankings if there were any more Rankings. That is based on his two works on the dirt at Churchill Downs. In Friday’s work, a half in :48 2/5, he went solo and was strong throughout, especially on the gallop-out, as he just kept going the length of the backstretch. He went in :24 2/5, home in :24 flat, before galloping out five-eighths in 1:01 3/5 and continuing six furlongs in 1:14. He also loses Prat and gets Tyle Gaffalione, who also had his share of controversy in the Derby two years ago, getting beat a nose on Sierra Leone to Mystik Dan and then fined by the stewards for making contact with third-place finisher Forever Young.
Moving up into the Top 10 would have been Santa Anita Derby winner SO HAPPY, who certainly fooled me and I’m sure others with his third-place finish in the San Felipe Stakes. My low ranking last week was not, as one would think, based on him being by Runhappy as much as his effort in the San Felipe, in which he simply didn’t run like a horse who was going to get stronger stretching out in distance. I had always been intrigued by his pedigree because all through it there were conflicting links between speed and stamina.
For example, So Happy’s sire Runhappy and dam So Cunning combined to win nine races, all sprints between six and seven furflongs. Yet their respective sires won the Kentucky Derby and Breeders’ Cup Classic. Runhappy’s paternal grandsire Maria’s Mon and So Cunning’s maternal grandsire Gilded Time both were 2-year-old champions. Gilded Time returned off a one-year layoff to finish third, beaten three-quarters of a length, in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint, and his sire Timeless Moment was a pure sprinter who won or placed in seven sprint stakes. Yet Timeless Moment’s sire Damascus won the 1 1/4-mile Travers, Woodward, and Brooklyn, the 1 1/2-mile Belmont, and the two-mile Jockey Club Gold Cup, but was fast enough to win the seven-furlong Malibu Stakes in 1:21 1/5. So Happy also is inbred to the last British Triple Crown winner Nijinsky, winner of the 2,000 Guineas, Epsom Derby, and the about 1 3/4-mile St. Leger. What I love most is that So Happy’s breeder Leverett S. Miller, also bred his dam, his second dam, his third dam, and his fourth dam. It is a family that traces to Man o’ War and La Troienne, the same cross Nerud used to get Unbridled.
So despite being by Runhappy, no one has any idea how far So Happy will run. You couldn’t ask for a better Thoro-Graph pattern, with him running a “5 1/4” first time out and then moving forward and pairing up “3 1/2s.” That set him up for a new career-best number in the Santa Anita Derby and he more than delivered, running a huge “zero-plus (1/4),” second-fastest number behind Further Ado. There is no reason why he can’t improve once again. So this is one you’re going to have to figure out.
Speaking of the Santa Anita Derby, the runner-up Potente went off at 16-1 in the final Future Wager. The well-regarded Cherokee Nation, who finished sixth, beaten almost 12 lengths, went off at 18-1. The decisive winner, So Happy, went off at 93-1. Huh?
And go figure this one. The first and second-place finishers of the Wood Memorial, Albus and Right to Party, went off at 173-1 and 317-1. Not only is that unheard of for the one-two finishers of a major 100-point Derby prep, it’s the same three numbers in a different order. If they both happen to draw the post of 1, 3, or 7, every numerologist in the country is going to box them in the trifecta with whichever horse that draws the remaining number. Crazy year indeed.
Racing historian, author, and award-winning retired journalist for the Daily Racing Form and The Blood-Horse, Steve Haskin was inducted into the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame’s Media Roll of Honor in 2016. Known for his racing knowledge and insightful prose, he has been an exclusive contributor to Secretariat.com since 2020.
I worked at Tartan Farms in ’72, during my summer and winter breaks from college. It was there that I met my best friend, who was a full time worker there, and we are still best friends, even though we have always lived about 2000 miles apart.
I remember how excited I was to find Magic there, as Buckpasser is my all time favorite racehorse, and I had read an article about his breeding with Aspidistra, but I never heard anything more about the resulting foal(I still have that newspaper article, in my vast scrapbook of everything about Buckpasser).
There was another special aspect of Tartan at that time, it was a sort of apprenticeship program, and I’m guessing it was Nerud’s brainchild. People came from all over the world to work there and learn. The summer I was there, there was a young man from Ireland, and the brother of the manager of Daniel Wildenstein’s operation in France. My friend was part of that program, as were 2 others who were there. One went on to be the farm manager(Brian Howland) after Jim Hartigan–who was something of a legend, too.
But I never fully knew or appreciated Nerud’s impact on the racing and breeding industry until reading your articles about him and Tartan, so thank you.
“The eyes of the beholder.”
I know that Steve Haskin likes Fulleffort. Calling him “a definite play for me”. I’ve seen others that were impressed by his latest workout.
Even though Fulleffort ran slightly faster(59.4), I liked the looks of Commandment.
I’d rate the latest workouts of the 3 Brad C runners this way: Commandment, Further Ado, and Fulleffort. That’s how it looked to my old eyes.
They were just workouts. Nothing to get too excited about. We just want to see that they are doing good and getting ready to run a big one on the first Saturday in May.
Looking forward to “The Chief’s” next workout. That’s the way I WANT to go. His next workout is key.
I made a small post on your old site, about hip #1056…..he sold today, for over $10 million…a 2yo in 🚂 ng ….
Just read a Flightline 2YO out of an Into Mischief mare sold for $10.5 million to Zedan Stables at the Ocala 2YO sales. Ran an furlong in 9 3/5 seconds. Hope he stays sound.
Crazy! At that price…if/when he wins a gr1—his insurance will be high enough to warrant early retirement…and the sport keeps “devouring” it’s top talent….in THAT respect he would be just like his daddy …
I agree — it IS Crazy.
Let’s hope Ms. Blacktype, he/she races more than six times.
Amr Zedan likely sends him to BB.
We’ve seen that a big purchase price doesn’t always guarantee a successful career on the track.
I wish I could express as well as you do just how much I appreciate your own contribution to the history of horse racing in America. You have done so much to preserve the memories of our history that might otherwise have been lost. You have written so much about John Nerud that it looks like with a little editing and enhancing, you would have a book about him almost written! I’d be your first buyer.
Thank you so much Pam. That is very kind of you to say. It means a great deal to me. There is a lot about John Nerud and his life and career in my book on Dr. Fager. But of course there is still so much to tell about this amazing person and his extraordinary career.
Commandment, Further Ado and Fulleffort worked early this morning for Brad Cox, over the Churchill track.
Commandment, 5 furlongs in 59.60
Further Ado, 4 furlongs in 48.60
Fulleffort, 5 furlongs in 59.20
Cox was especially pleased with Fulleffort, who recorded splits of 12.40, 24.20, 35.60, 47.20, 59.20/ 1:11.60, 1:25.40-1:40.20. Judging by his recent works, at Churchill, I would think that he’ll handle the transition from AWT/Turf to dirt quite well. Currently, he’s listed at 30-1 in Vegas. I will certainly include Fulleffort in some of exotic wagers.
As I mentioned in a previous comment, Fulleffort is the only Derby contender that was bred from the Mr. Prospector/Northern Dancer cross. His sire line leads directly to Mr. Prospector, and his broodmare sire line leads directly to Norther Dancer. His dam’s sire, Awesome Again, won the BC Classic, and sired four Breeders Cup winners. His 2nd dam’s sire, Roanoke won the G1 California Stakes. His sire, Pleasant Colony, won the KD.
Bottom line, Fulleffort has a ton of class and stamina reflected on both sides of his pedigree.
I’ve looked at the pedigree of Danon Bourbon on Equibase several times over the past few days and it’s mind boggling in the 5th-6th generations. After watching his race replays I’ll be keying him in my wagers. He looked really good to me.
You can read .my column on him tomorrow.
Thanks Steve, looking forward to reading it. The derby field ls pretty solid this year – could be the Japaneses’ year.
This Morning – Further Ado CD 4 furlongs 48.60 Looked Great!
Equibase has the “time from gate” when viewing their full PDF charts. It appears to be for stakes and handicap races only? Maybe? I did notice when researching the Derbies run the week prior to the Lexington. The Wood and Florida Derby for example were run 4 and 3 seconds slower than gate time for SA Derby. I’m not sure if this is factor in measuring 3yo’s against each other or not. Any input would be welcomed. Thanks.
For timing reasons regarding the subject matter, the next column will be posted tomorrow (Saturday) morning.
24.13/ 48.52/1:12.49/1:44.40
24.22/48.80/1:13.00/1:49.99
The pace of the first race was faster and was an 8.5-furlong contest. The winner received a 94 from Equibase. The winner of the second race received a 97 for 9 furlongs. Both races occurred at the same track on the same day.
The winner of a race at 8.5 furlongs run in the pace of 1:15+ receives a 96. The winner of an 8.5-furlong contest run in 1:13+ receives a 99. Another in 1:12+ a 94. And another in 1:11+ a 91. It appears as though the slower the pace, the higher number achieved and the faster the slower. Huh? Who is faster so far?
The first two pace numbers belong to Prom Queen the winner of the Gulfstream Oaks and the second to Commandment.
In the second paragraph, the first to Percy’s Bar winner of the Ashland, the second to Counting Stars, winner of the Fantasy and the third to Prom Queen, winner of the Gulfstream Oaks and the last to Meaning, winner of the Santa Anita Oaks. Who is the better filly at 8.5 furlongs? Who will be better at 9 furlongs? And will anyone from the Florida Derby finish in the trifecta in the Derby?
I came to know John Nerud in all his dimensions after reading Steve’s tribute entitled “The Legacy of John Nerud” published the day the legendary horseman passed away.
That homage was so thorough that when I watched the documentary “Born to Rein” some years later I already new in advance its script about Nerud; I even realized that some details of his early life were omitted.
Steve has been tracing the presence of Fappiano in the families of the best runners over the years as a way to keep the memory and feats of John Nerud alive.
Since Unbridled’s Derby the following Fappiano’s descendants have won the run for the roses:
Grindstone, Real Quiet, Mine that Bird (by Birdstone by Grindstone), Orb, American Pharoah, Always Dreaming, Mandaloun, (and Medina Spirit had Unbridled as his second damsire), and Sovereignty.
Nerud’s imprint is also noticeable in the families of two beloved champions: California Chrome (with Cozzene) and Smarty Jones (with Smile).
Great Above the sire of the great Holy Bull is also a product of Nerud’s vision. So, Giacomo is another Derby victor credited to Tartan Farm’s program; and Justify got Ogygian in his male family and In Reality in his female line. Same for Mystik Dan female tree through Colonel John and Tiznow.
That tally amounts to 14 wins in 40 years for Nerud’s breeding influence on the Kentucky Derby -an impressive mark for a man who once sagely said, “Too early in the season. You ruin more horses going to the Derby than any other race in America.”
As Steve described, Fappiano appears 21 times in the pedigrees of the 2026 Derby entries with his strongest concentration in the families of The Puma -showing 5Sx5Sx5D inbreeding-, Emerging Market (4Sx4D), Danon Bourbon (5Dx5D), and in Further Ado’s which carries a 5Sx5S inbreeding to him.
The winner of the 2026 Kentucky Derby will be carrying the legacy of John Nerud through his magnum opus Fappiano; and when you won’t see Fappiano or Quiet American in the 5th generation of future Stakes horses, then the likes of Empire Maker, Tiznow, Tapit, Ghostzapper, Unbridled’s Song, Bernardini, Liam’s Map, Gun Runner, Candy Ride, Not this Time, American Pharoah, and Justify, among a myriad of other brilliant Stallions, will continue to be hallmarks of the genius of Minatare, Nebraska.
Somebody far more wise, about the sport told me that dirt horses have 3/8 mile kicks, and turf kicks are much shorter, more like 3/16…..turf kicks being much faster—maybe that’s why I have noticed how wide trips on dirt—are less detrimental, than wide trips on turf, which usually are too much of an obstacle….Renegade looks like a horse that can get a wide journey and still win!…When I talk about wide trips, I mean both turns, on dirt I just do not care as much, as long as it’s on dirt….last year I thought Umberto Rispoli…a superior turf rider…kept getting Journalism bottled up inside, trying to settle inside, which is how you want to ride TURF, awaiting an inside hole to open, when they begin their sprints, at the quarter pole …but holes do not open, as well on DIRT….
Wide on both turns against top company? Yikes! It takes a special horse to overcome that IMO. The Puma was wide and got nailed on the money.
Wide both turns is an average Kentucky Derby trip ..
That said, I like The Puma, he made several moves…he looks like a ten furlong horse?
Mathew, I’ve thought for awhile The Puma can easily can get the required distance.
Renegade was the 4-1 favorite, in the final Futures wagering pool….and the morning line maker is saying he is going to put him at 9/2, so you’re getting a better price on the day of!….
I figured Renegade for 4-1 or 5-1.
I seem to remember that Todd Pletcher’s Always Dreaming was 5-2 in his Derby win. I could be wrong. I seem to remember Pletcher’s Super Saver at 7-1 or 8-1 in his Derby win.
I get your point though. It would be frustrating to bet a future at 4-1 and see 9-2 on Derby Day.
Which reminds me that if Coldfacts was still posting here, he would be reminding us of Todd Pletcher’s poor Derby record. 2 for 65(3%).
I figure that TP knows what to do with a good horse. The Derby is the hardest race is America to win. Especially with the huge fields these days.
People can criticize TP all they want. But he has 2 more Derby wins than most trainers.
1 horse, out of 20 is 5%….so 3% isn’t that far off, but it is a poor number …he gets lots of horses into the race….
Pletcher’s Super Saver paid $18.00 for the win @ 8-1 odds and Always Dreaming paid $11.40. I’m guessing 9-2 odds.
This years exotics should pay out nicely.
When I got really into Racing…around 1971-72…..the big tracks were in New York, California and Florida…Kentucky, Louisiana, Arkansas were all “lessor”, in class…Illinois, also …my brother and I always loved Oaklawn! Today—Oaklawn’s dirt oval is TOPS! Their backstretch accomodations are tops! Their track announcer is very good and very young! Oaklawn has become the nation’s top Winter track, in my opinion….and Saturday they drew a top cast, nevermind the size, in my lifetime and before….races with Citation, Swaps, Kelso, Buckpasser, Dr Fager, Secretariat, Seattle Slew, Bid, Alysheba…..tended to have limited starters, Saturday will have two three time gr1 winners…and Whitey, who has won more than that….
Yes, announcer Matt Dinerman is terrific! His enthusiasm for racing really comes through. I got to meet him when he was still at Golden Gate Fields, and he was super kind as well.
I enjoy the experience of playing Oaklawn.
I see plenty of people picking Journalism on Saturday. I don’t know if Journalism will go favored again. But I expect the odds to be pretty close.
From the overhead view, of the Florida Derby…Commandment looks to be five lengths back, at the quarter pole…and it wasn’t a fast pace…
Puma ran 17 feet more than Commandment, per the GPS chart
Those stats don’t mean much, to me…not on dirt…Renegade went 8-wide, doesn’t mean a thing it’s where he was comfortable….
Renegade worked this morning at Palm Beach Downs in 48 4/5 sec.
We were getting worried. One more work next week.
Steve – not sure if anyone has brought this salient fact up to explain your incredulity at the Derby Future wager prices on Potente and especially So Happy / the simple reason is Churchill closed the last Future Pool BEFORE the Santa Anita Derby was Even run‼️ Not sure about the Wood but I am in the process of sending your beautiful So Happy comments to my dear friend Maria Flora Millerfor – Lev Miller’s daughter to send to her 94 year old Dad – Lev is a special person – the family scion and not only a wonderful man but a true old school racing and breeding horseman. His uncle Sonny Whitney bequeathed him the famous Whitney Eton blue silks and for Lev to breed So Happy from a dam he owned and bred (plus the 2nd, 3rd & 4th dams to boot) is a crowning achievement. I am honored to know him and his own lovely family for over 45 years . Thanks again Steve as always –
Hi Ben thanks very much. I know the reason was timing based but that’s also what makes it incredible. What a way to back up your love of So Happy as a Derby horse.
Thank you for that for all info on Lev and for passing that on. What a great story. Now that is worthy of a featured column. The breeders often get overlooked.
Also please tell Maria to pass on my congratulations to her father for his success after 4 generations, his longevity in breeding and in life, and his perseverance Perfect match for Mike Smith. Lol. Good luck in the Derby
Thanks for the replies Steve – Miss our times on the backside be it with Bobby Frankel , Baffert etc. I passed along your comments to Maria who was so grateful and will certainly let her Dad know of your kind words and equally important your astute analysis of So Happy’s pattern and chances .
Also Maria said if you ever wish to do a column on Lev she will be SO HAPPY to put you in touch with him.
I had to chuckle at your Mike Smith reference – I turned 75 in November and you brought to mind that great Lil Feat song “Old Folks Boogie” ‼️ I’ve known Mike for years plus we did the Official Justify Triple Crown Print with Bob & Mike signing – Stay in touch Steve
Thanks Ben for passing that along. I definitely will stay in touch and let you know about doing a story on Lev. It sounds like a great story and people should know who he is. Its just a matter of timing as the race is coming up fast and I do one column a week. But we’ll see how it goes. Talk soon.
There is a bit of a discussion of the ThoroGraph numbers below.
I am no expert on the ThoroGraph numbers but I like hearing what they are. You can never have too much information.
I Use the BSFs because they are right there in the Form. But mostly, I watch replays. Commandment went from a 101 BSF to a 100 BSF in the Florida Derby. We’ll call it a wash. Same for “Wallabee”. “The Chief” went from a 100 BSF to a 99 BSF in the Florida Derby. Again, we’ll say even. Stuck in neutral? Both horses? Not so fast.
As I have pointed out before, the Florida Derby was run at a very slow pace: 24.2, 48.4, and 113.0. These are Stakes horses. They were walking on the lead.
I will argue that the Florida Derby was Commandment’s most impressive win. He was dead last and had to pass them all. He did. To win by a whisker.
I would also give The Puma some props for making his move very wide around the turn. And “The Chief” because he was blocked for a bit.
I believe that the BSFs are tied into the final times. At least to some extent. I don’t know about the ThoroGraphs.
I say that if the Florida Derby was run at a legitimate pace, the numbers for the “Big-3” in that race would have been higher. That Commandment wouldn’t need such a big jump to be considered a factor on Derby Day. If he would have got a 102 BSF or even a 104 BSF he would be looking real good for another jump forward.
I still like all 3 horses. Renegade too. If he does get that Thursday work in.
My question: does ThoroGraph take into consideration the slow pace situation of the Florida Derby? Tell me, I’ve got to know(a stolen line from sportscaster Jim Healy in Los Angeles about 40 or so years ago).
They take everything into account especially ground loss. Beyers are all about final time compared to the rest of the card and past figures ofvthe starters. Ground loss to me is extremely important.
Hi Steve,
I could be wrong as there could be updates that I’m not aware of, but I’m pretty sure that TG Figs are NOT adjusted for pace. I read a long discussion on “Ask the Experts” as to why they prefer their performance figs to be unaltered by pace, and it made a lot of sense. Also, if you go to Thor-Graph and scroll down you’ll find this…
“What do the figures mean?
Each figure (a.k.a. number) represents a performance rating calculated by using the time of the race, beaten lengths (a proprietary formula different than generally used), ground lost or saved, weight carried, and the effect wind may or may not have had on the time of the race. The final figure is manually adjusted with a carefully crafted track variant. The lower the number the better the race. With few exceptions, there will be a figure for every race a horse has run the past for years.”
As you can see there is no mention of an adjustment for pace. Interestingly though, the reasoning pointed out in the “Ask the Experts” thread pretty much highlighted that users wanted an accurate raw “Fig” that they could apply their own individual pace handicapping methods to. In other words give us good figs and we’ll do the handicapping… sort of like what Tommy was doing in the above post.
Meant to say if you go to Thoro-Graph FAQ’s and scroll down….
Thanks Jim for the detailed explanation. Pace can be tricky based on several factors such as wind as you mentioned. These are all just tools with each helping in their own way.
Respectfully, I like Steve use the ThoroGraph numbers. I am not a fan of Beyer.
Never been fan of Beyer.
Commandment’s demeanor fits the description of an “Alpha Male”, IMO. I suspect if he was born in the wild, he would have been the herd leader. This colt is as brave as they come, with a strong will to win. He has demonstrated the ability to rate off the pace and kick it into overdrive during the stretch run. His brisnet Late Pace figure of 121 in the Florida Derby is telling. His pedigree is super impressive, top and bottom and his connections are top notch as well.
It appears there are three main players in this year’s Derby, Commandment, Renegade and Further, IMO. The Puma has big following on this site, but I’m not convinced he’s on par with the afore mentioned three.
Now watch The Puma with the Derby and make me look like a fool.
Breaking News: Racehorse, Frosted passes away at 14.
Saw that … Sad News
Euthanized, acute case of laminitis.
Horrible. What a talented horse he was.
And he was absolute stunning looking!
So very sad, thanks Mike for letting us know.
No prob, Deacon.
NOOOOOO. Such a game horse. Thanks for posting, Mike.
My understanding is that there was clearly a speed bias at Fair Grounds Risen Star day.
Does anyone know if there was a speed bias Louisiana Derby day?
I’m not able to access the full race charts from that day. And couldn’t find any mention of it online.
Knowing this would really help clarify how I feel about the top 3 finishers going into the Derby.
I absolutely believe that there was a speed bias on Risen Star Day. More fair on Louisiana Derby Day IMO.
Thanks Tommy
Hi Steve
One of the contributors on this site, mentioned the clockwise direction that horses run in Japan, versus the counterclockwise direction that horses run in this country. I’d appreciate any thoughts you might have regarding this issue.
Forever Young handled the direction switch quite nicely. I’m hopeful Danon Bourbon will do the same.
Thanks, Steve.
I really have no thoughts other than what i have already said regarding Danon Bourbon. Basically there is no way to know how a horse will make the transition.. You just have to watch him train at Churchill and see how he looks. I would think they are training him going left handed if possible.
Thanks for the reply, Steve
I’ll be looking forward to his upcoming works over the Churchill track. It will be interesting to see if he’ll handle the transition was well as Forever Young did.
edit: as well as
Just recently saw a video of Danon Bourbon and was totally impressed!!! Physically he looks more mature than a 3 year old and runs smoothly and powerful with his stride. Unless he looks totally washed out in the post parade he definitely will be on my ticket come the first Saturday of May.
My horse-racing social media name is
FAT PIANO…….LOL
ONE OF MY FAVORITE HORSES
Lol. That is great.
Digging through the numbers here…and I know that Commandment’s Thoro of “4” is historically low for a winner.
BUT from what I can tell, he is the only runner that enters the race coming off the direct pairing of a career top? It looks like all the others are either coming off of jumps to a career top following paired tops, or regressed in their final prep.
Further Ado 5 to 5 to -2
So Happy 3.5 to 3.5 to 0.25
Renegade 5 to 5 to 1
The Puma 4 to 2.5
Emerging Market 5.5 to 2.5
Fulleffort 7.75 to 3.5
Potente 2.25 to higher than 2.25
Still can’t find the numbers for Chief Wallabee but assume they are similar to Commandment over the last two, so perhaps he fits this mold as well…
Aren’t these the two that Thoro players will be targeting for big steps forward based on pairing career tops last two? I don’t see any others.
MMatt: If you look through Steve’s posts, you will find the TGs for Chief Wallabee. To help you out, I have the last two figs as 4 and 3.
Not necessarily. The pairing of a career top is what you want but how much will he improve?;I would think it will take at least a 4 pt jump to get to a zero and he has never made that big a jump before. Not saying he cant but it may take a negative number to win and now we’re talking a 5 point jump. We’ll see.
Chief Wallabee’s run a 3, 4, 3.
So because Commandment has shown the ability to run inside and even bully his way through tight quarters, in the eyes of Thorograph that’s viewed less favorable than a horse who prefers to take an overland trip around the track? The wide trip runner is deemed to have run a better race and thus usually is assigned a better number? Of course there’s more that goes into their calculations but isn’t that one of the more heavily weighed factors?
Thanks Steve!
Longtime no conversation. Usually when they pair up the good ones improve.
Potente falls in the Improve category for the Derby.
I loved this article Steve. Fappiano was always a favorite of mine and every Maiden race if I saw him in the breeding it was a leg up. Thank you for quantifying my anecdotal reasoning.
Thanks Eric.
If memory serves…Flying Paster, a good horse that never beat Bid…had been working for his return so well ..and looked so good….they made him under 2-1…in The Malibu, Bid won by five,c track record that should he there still, but that’s another story …
Well, Journalism LOOKS great …big rear, heavily muscled ..he filled out …I thought Sov looked OK, not great—(I’m the guy that kept thinking Paster was going to get Bid..)..
I always wanted Paster. He just was not as good as Bid. That did not make him a bad horse. Bid was an all time great.
As for Journalism and Sovereignty, that is not settled. We shall see.
Other then Dr. Fager & Secretariat, no horse was as good as Spectacular Bid IMO.
Bid was a special horse, and owners and trainers were different then. More of a gunslinger mentality. Which certainly made things more fun. Last year, Journalism knew he couldn’t beat Sovereignty. Maybe that could change.
Me too ..I only saw Bid once, my brother and I walked up the trail…to catch the horses come by out of the receiving barn, on their way to the saddling barn, and we caught the Strub foursome! I thought Relaunch, Valdez and Flying Paster were all better looking than the gangling Bid…and I said as much…Bud Delp was walking next to Bid, and he told us to get ready to see greatness, he was right! Bid was one of those horses, who if you saw them you thought he was the best….like Man O War..Citation …Swaps….Secretariat….Flightline—-horses that made a lasting impact, to those who saw them…
I got to see Spectacular Bid at Claiborne in 1984. That was a thrill. (Admittedly, not as big a thrill as meeting Secretariat, but still a thrill!)
Matthew: If you saw Man O War & Citation run then I am impressed…………ha ha
Flying Paster ran his heart out. He just ran into a great horse. I would rank Spectacular Bid as the best horse that I ever saw in person. Right there at Santa Anita.
I second that Tommy D.
Hard to argue, he is definitely in my top 3
I always thought the same thing too. I’ll never forget the morning he worked a mile in 1:33 and his trainer Gordon Campbell said he could blow out a match!!
Renegade scheduled to work Thursday.
He’s a big framed horse, powerful effort, at Oaklawn, a track that’s not easy to ship in and win…he did that, and then some, I don’t think he will need much in the way of works….
Thanks, Mr. Haskin.
Whew. Hope all goes well.
Thanks for the info.
I am trying to decide on a trifecta strategy/format for the Derby and am weighing either a wheel with 2 key horses, or a large box instead. I think longshots could occupy all 3 itm spots so I want to spread as much as possible. The 2-key wheel with 7 additional horses for a $0.50 trifecta in the format (1,2)(1,2,3,4,5,6,7)(1,2,3,4,5,6,7) if my math is correct is $168. A 8 horse box for a $0.50 trifecta is also $168…..What do you all think would be a better way to go?
I think I probably will go with the wheel; if I get real lucky with my 2 key horses, can hit trifecta twice
Love talking trifecta strategy. This is mine…
I use 13 horses total, of which 5 I think can win.
I bet two .50 tickets, so I have a chance to hit both. Each costs $110.
5 x 5 x 13
5 x 13 x 5
I feel strong enough about my top 5, that I think two of them will be in the trifecta.
This year my top 5 are…
Renegade
Danon Bourbon
Potente
Chief Wallabee
Incredibolt
Nice format with lots of chances to cash…in 20 horse field, with 6,840 trifecta combinations, we need all the help we can get!
Best of luck!
My 2 key horses keep changing, but currently are The Puma and Golden Tactic…
With Golden Tactic, do you get both Golden Tempo and Silent Tactic? 🙂
Oops! I meant Golden Tempi, but new version of trifecta with Golden Tempo/Silent Tactic could work too!😊
I think I called Commandment Commitment below! Getting old and using cell phone is bad combination!
Note: $168 trifecta format referenced above should read:
(1,2)(1-9)(1-9)
(1-9)(1,2)(1-9)
(1-9)(1-9)(1,2)
I wonder if any owner/trainer has already decided if they’re victorious 1st Saturday in May they’ll skip the Preakness then point to the Belmont at Saratoga?
Without a doubt, I would.
You’d expect Bill Mott to take that route again. He’s probably not the only trainer who would find the Triple Tens–Derby, Belmont at Saratoga, and Travers–more appealing, especially with these lightly raced colts.
not to mention it will be at Laurel……
Love the article on Fappiano…. Unbridled was my all time favorite horse,and though I am not much of a gambler I would have bet my house on Unbridled on Derby Day….I have never been more sure of a horse race in my life.He left a lasting legacy on horse racing!
Thanks Jeff.
Sorry for the double post about the arrivals at CHD.
Not quite sure how that happened.
Crazy exacta box, Riley Mott’s entrants. I’m sure both will be a good price, and probably deservingly so, but I wouldn’t just toss the two of them yet. I like the pedigree of Albus, enough so that he was my play in The Wood. I liked his cross-duplicate cross of Seattle Slew, that gave us Vindication and A.P.Indy. Vindication being a BC Juv. winner and A.P. Indy being a Breeder’s Cup Classic, Belmont, and Santa Anita Derby winner.
Along the same idea, look at Incredibolt, also a cross-duplicate of Seattle Slew.
I think Riley is one of the best upcoming young trainers, could have a surprise pair, and I can’t see anything wrong with a $2 exacta box which would probably be a nice payout.
Fun little game…
If you could have any one of these horses., to own. It’s yours. Pick whichever one you want. Who would you choose?
My answer would be Emerging Market.
And maybe that’s your derby horse.
Pavlovian! The heck with the Derby. Dont even think about asking why.
Read about your connection, super cool. Would give him to you if I could.
My horse-racing social media name is
FAT PIANO…….LOL
ONE OF MY FAVORITE HORSES
I agree with Pavlovian! Not for the same reasons . Mine has to do with Bluey . An Australian Blue Heeler pup cartoon character my Granddaughter and I watch while we hang out M-F while her Parents work . Bluey and her sister Bingo serve pavlova at their mock cafe’ . So Mia wants Pavlovian but she wants a claiming horse in Florida named Amelia first . Mia said she doesn’t want to change the horses name to Amelia when there is one already . She is 4 ! So not much older than this years crop.
We’ve been through the Bluey stage with our 4yo granddaughter.
Then you know
Danon Bourbon for sure. I’d bring him back to the U.S. of A.
Like it. Might be the smartest answer. Could be a freak.
How much does it matter that he’s only run clockwise? I have no idea how much regression (if any) is likely when you have to run a race in the opposite direction for the first time. I know he can train for it, but still not the same as a race.
Off topic but been watching the arrival and a few on the track.
What a gorgeous group of 3 year old colts, each and everyone so far!
Chief Wallabee is very laid back!
Steve, I have UNBRDLD on my truck’s license plate, having attended that race with my wife. Bad thing about actually being there, it wasn’t until watching replays later in the day that I saw Mrs. Genter crying. She deserved her day.
One of the great moments in sports history I’ve ever seen. Whoever or whomever had the wherewithal to capture the moment live with Mrs. Genter with her trainer during the running of the race was an act of brilliance.
It was indeed a great moment. Even the opposition appreciated it. I read that Wayne Lukas said he wanted to win but after he saw that tape, he decided the best thing had happened. And Pat Day said he was moved to tears. It was certainly a race to remember.
Unbridled paid for my daughter’s trip to Disney World. Never throw that plate away.
I can see why Bill Mott thinks that “The Chief” isn’t as focused as he should be. But isn’t that the price of racing horses so few times these days? “The Chief” was only a half length behind Commandment and The Puma in the Florida Derby. An expert trainer like Bill Mott could make up that half-length. Maybe blinkers do the trick.
I figure that Commandment will be somewhere around 7-1. Which is exactly what Sovereignty went off at last year.
7-1 seemed like a gift on Sovereignty. 7-1 on Commandment seems a little too low to me.
The value should be “The Chief” or The Puma at possibly 10-1+.
Renegade would seem like good value at 4-1 or 5-1. Well, if Todd P ever gets him working again. Renegade has been winning his races easier. Albeit against softer.
5-2 would seem too low on Renegade.
One man’s opinion.
Tommy, the Crux of the matter lies in your second sentence about the number of races for Derby runners. Even the most experienced trainers are in uncommon territory in recent years, trying to bring inexperienced colts to big races at long distances.
This renewal must be on the verge of having the most inexperienced field …. I don’t know …. ever? It’s possible that only two horses in the derby will have more than 6 career races, with 9 or 10 having between 2 and 4 races. The two most experienced are longshots Pavlonian (10) and Fulleffort (7).
I’m leaning toward the most experienced in my top 10: Commandment, Further Ado, Renegade (but concerned about the workout situation), and Fulleffort.
Off topic but been watching the arrival and a few on the track.
What a gorgeous group of 3 year old colts, each and everyone so far!
Chief Wallabee is very laid back!
Just read he will be on blinkers.
lol sorry Lynda I have a weird sense of what makes me chuckle
LOL.
I meant to write in blinkers.
Using this cell phone to post and my eyes go catieompass.
That is a Southern English word for crooked.
Cattywampus (pronounced kat-ee-wom-puhs) is a chiefly Southern and Midland U.S. term meaning crooked, askew, diagonal, or misaligned. It is often used to describe objects that are not level, placed diagonally (catty-corner), or in total disarray. Originating around 1830, it is a variation of “catawampus,” likely derived from a mix of Scottish dialect and 19th-century American slang.
I would rather have Commandment 7-1 than Renegade 9-2. Renegade looked good visually but his 98 Neuer vs easy company not that good. I am not sure Commandment will be 7-1. 6-1 7-1 likely. I agree 10-1 on The Piluma and Wallabee might be best.
The Puma has only won 1 of his 4 races. He has beaten Canaletto and Further Ado, lost to Commandment, Renegade, and “The Chief”. But The Puma seems to be improving. Don’t forget that when he got nailed on the money by Commandment in the Florida Derby, The Puma was running just 3 weeks after breaking his Maiden in the Tampa Derby. Seems like a horse that will be pretty close at the finish one way or another. He was also wide around that far turn in the narrow loss to Commandment.
Commandment had to pass them all in the Florida Derby and did. A race that featured very slow fractions. 48.4 and 1:13.0. I still can’t believe Nearly didn’t win that race after stalking an over-matched pacesetter. Nearly is clearly not in the same league as the other three. Commandment, The Puma, and “The Chief”.
You can tell me that Nearly didn’t get beat too badly. But he had a dream trip off a slow pace. I doubt that he will ever get a better chance than that to beat the top 3.
Flavien Prat was riding Commandment like he knew he could take them any time he wanted. One cool customer. But he only beat The Puma by a whisker. Close, man. Close.
Agree with you on Nearly. He needs to be pointed to the BC Dirt Mile. He is the reason that Chief Wallabee may get in this Derby for tossing points his way. That race was run like a turf race with a slow pace and a cavalry-charging-blanket-toss finish. I don’t think that Six Speed should be running either. He led the UAE Derby on a day where the early speed was holding, and it turned out to be the third slowest run in the last fifteen years.
Tommy McD, what Colts outside of the Florida Derby do you fear?
Me thinks that The Puma is battle tested.
My concern is his stamia.
He is in my exotics…………
Does anyone have any thoughts on Golden Tempo. He had a good thorograph number, seems to be getting better, and has six weeks rest. I watched replays of the race, and to me, it looked like he was gaining on Emerging Market, possibly winning the race. ……until he made a left hand turn down the stretch. He still only finished a length behind. I think he’s a forgotten horse, yet if he wins that race, we would be talking about him much differently.
If I remember correctly, Golden Tempo will be going 2nd time blinkers in the Derby.
Golden Tempo has a jockey that likes to race wide. Which is sometimes the winning scenario in the Derby. Golden Tempo looks like he can run as far as any of them.
I see him as a horse with lower numbers that can surprise the top contenders.
The price should be right.
He reminds me of Mine That Bird in the KD, not fast on paper and Lookin at Lee weaving through the Arkansas Derby field. Definitely on my tickets.
Gotcha, inhaling comments 1st to last
Right now he is one of my longshot specials.
Mine also, Steve…Interestingly, GT is now 18-1 at William Hill; he is available at 50-1 at Westgate for some reason. I am going there tomorrow to press at bit at great odds…He also will be prominent in my Derby day trifecta box or wheel
I guided Jon’s nephew on a hunt probably twenty years ago. He was surprised a cowboy in Wyoming knew so much about Fappiano, Jon Nerud, the Breeders Cup, Tartan farms, Unbridled, etc. Wish I could have taken him up on his offer to go back East with him to meet Jon. Would have been thrilling, like the time I met Penny Chenery and visited with her for almost a half hour.
thanks Steve!
love your 137 strategy, not handicappingly sound but interesting nonetheless! HA HA!!
Yes!!! It’ll be interesting to see who which horses wind up in gates 1,3, and 7.
A resident malignant narcissist on another site predicts Sov won’t hit the board Saturday. Comedy is always “fun”…… until it’s not!!!
Saw Journalism stepping off the van, at Oaklawn, and WOW! That guy has filled out!
I had the exact same thought. He’s a man now. Let’s see what he can do!
Sov/Journalism exacta paid $24.80, for a buck …I imaging Renegade/Potente will pay $50…maybe more …
If in fact, Renegade and Potente were to finish 1st and 2nd in the Derby, I would cash two profitable exacta wagers. In Futures Pool 5, I boxed Potente, at 18-1, with Renegade, at 13-1, in a $10.00 exacta wager. In Futures Pool 6, I boxed Potente, at 16-1, with Renegade, at 4-1, in a $50.00 exacta wager.
If Renegade finishes 1st and Potente 2nd, the combined payout would be $6,370.
If Potente finishes 1st and Renegade finishes 2nd, the combined payout would be $7,905. Needless to say, I’m all in on these two very impressive Into Mischief colts.
On a hunch, I boxed Danon Bourbon, at 23-1 with Potente, at 16-1, in a $20.00 exacta wager, (Pool 6). The payout would be $9,240 or $8370 (depending on the finishing order).
BTW, last year I boxed Journalism with Sovereignty in a $50.00 exacta and cashed for over 4K.
Hopefully my luck will continue in this year’s Derby.
Fingers crossed.
Nice!..
Thanks so much Steve! As a guy who didn’t get into racing until American Pharoah, I cannot tell you how much I enjoy reading your stories behind just the handicapping. Makes them feel human to me, along with the great human connections too.
Thanks for making these columns so darn fun to read, and also inciteful for some like myself. I truly appreciate it.
Ryan
Thank you so much Ryan. That really means a lot to me.
There seems to be mixed feelings about Bill Mott saying that he will likely add blinkers to “The Chief” for the Derby.
I’m a little concerned myself. Even though I have complete trust in Bill Mott. One of America’s best trainers IMO.
I don’t like seeing an equipment change going into the biggest race of the horse’s career. But if Mott thinks it will help, who am I to question him?
I don’t know if Bill Mott said “likely” or if that was the turf writer’s take on it.
“The Chief” will probably have two more works before the Derby. Probably the next two Saturdays. The workout on the 18th will be key.
Bill Mott can still change his mind. Watching the last workout, “The Chief” clearly had his head turned to the right in the stretch. In fact, it looked to me like his workmate Batten Down did too. Makes me wonder what both of them were looking at.
Just when I settled on “The Chief”. I think his odds could be best of the contenders. Maybe The Puma who has picked up quite a following.
Horses that run without blinkers…often train in them ..if Mott is changing to wearing them in the race ..I would think it’s for the better ..
For sure!
Like giving Picasso advice on how to paint.
would love a deeper dive on the jockey moves. I understand ortiz on Renegade. But Pratt, i assume had his pick after that and chose EM. im very familiar w the Pratt/Brown relationship. i assume one could conclude he took EM and will be rewarded w a bunch of Brown stakes horses at Saratoga and other tracks. But this is the Derby and so I wonder if theres more to it. Jockey agents at the top are good handicappers and i would think Pratt would have taken one of the others if his agent thought they were better.
So, was just wondering if there was any additional thoughts on how good EM might be in light of Pratt choice.
My opinion is….he likes the horse…Chad rides him, in the turf races, and I doubt he would change riders, should Prat decide to ride another … I’ll be watching Emerging Market close as I can…
Here’s jockey changes for you. Ties into Tartan. Codex jockeys leading to the Preakness
Santa Anita Derby: Pat Valenzuela
Hollywood Derby: Eddie Delahoussaye
Preakness Stakes: Angel Cordero Jr.
Great stats.
All I can say Steve is WOW, another great piece! and you keep churning them out. There’s no other way to start a Tuesday morning.
Thanks very much Derek.
nothing more on emerging market?
For example?
Re: Chief Wallabee with blinkers in the Derby. I watched video of his Saturday work with blinkers. He had his head cocked to the right in the stretch with the workmate to his outside and slightly behind.
Sea Hero was the last horse to won the Derby with a blinker change. They were taken OFF for the Derby. Sea Hero ran without blinkers in his first 4 races. Since then, there have been 30 Derby runners with blinker changes. No winners. Oddly, two favorites had changes in the Derby: blinkers OFF for both Improbable and Lookin At Lucky. I think the best any of them did was 4th, and most had double-digit finishes.
It looked to me like both “The Chief” and workmate Batten Down were looking to their right going down the lane.
Your stats on blinker changes going into the Derby are cause for caution.
I do remember that Lookin’ At Lucky drew the rail in the Derby and had a horrible trip. I’d draw a line right through that race. Blinkers or not. The horse did come back to win the Preakness two weeks later.
Lookin’ At Lucky finished 6th.
Yeah. LAL had a rough start. But he lost by 7 lengths without a stretch gain. What was most unusual about taking the blinkers off for the Derby was that he had them on for just his last two races. In his first six races, he didn’t wear blinkers and won five times. The race he lost was the BCJ by just a head.
Always respected LAL.
If you recall they tried it on palace malice in the derby , that did t immediately go so
Well. Down the line….you never know. Either way , Bill is pretty smart , so he sees something.
Head locked to the right is what I assumed the blinkers were meant to correct.
It’s possible that Mott will change his mind about putting blinkers on. I remember Chad Brown saying he would put blinkers on Practical Joke, but then decided not to days before the Derby. Just seeing a trainer consider a change in the weeks before the Derby is enough to give me doubts about the horse’s chances.
Great reading
Thanks. Remember Dr. Patches? I cried when he beat Seattle Slew in the Meadowlands Cup. Another Tartan Farms horse.
John, in my opinion Slew’s owners didn’t know much regarding managing him. Running him only few weeks after TC was irresponsible,at best. Turner didn’t agree.
That was the Swap Stakes at Hollywood Park. I was there. I believe the race I’m thinking of was when he was a 4yo. He lost either the Patterson or Meadowlands Cup. It was in the fall of 78. The Slew was my favorite horse of all time. I had the HBPA board game for horse racing. That’s how I remember most of these horses.
Flying to IN to see his last offspring, Maggie in few weeks. Saw her twice fifteen hrs ago.
I wasn’t really aware of the versatility of Unbridled. The great horses of the 60s and 70s regularly competed in the best races regardless of distance. By the 90s it was pretty rare. Now it almost never happens because of limited, proscribed “campaigns” to garner year end championship points. The big money arab races have also rendered races like the Carter and Metropolitan of little relevance.. i suggested in an earlier post that Sovereignty’s possible greatness could have been assured by completing a Carter-Met-Whitney-Woodward-BC Classic campaign, knowing it would never happen. And Steve, i appreciate how your continued enthusiasm for racing brings us these memories, even as my interest in racing flags.
Thanks Todd. I hope i can restore some of your waning interest.
Steve,
Always fascinated reading stories about Jon Nerud. I have your book about Dr Fager It is a great read and if you all out there have not read it you should get a copy and do so. I finished it the day I got it as I couldn’t put it down. One of my favorite horses a few years back was a horse called Millennium Wind ( half brother to Charismatic) whose sire was Cryptoclearance. He had great speed. He ran in the Kentucky Derby the year Monarchos won. He got caught up in those suicidal fraction at the beginning of the race along with Point Given and others which allowed Monarchos to come flying home in the 2nd fastest KD ever run. His trainer, David Hoffman , had a hard time keeping him healthy and unfortunately he also died at an early age (14) from complications from a surgery he had.
It is amazing how many horses in this year’s KD race that are tied to the Fappiano line and it is a shame that he also had to die so young.
Jon Nerud was definitely one of kind and a great influence on the breed. You are so lucky to have been a friend of his. Bet he had a lot of stories to tell you about the great ones back then.
As far as So Happy he definitely will be on my tickets come the first Saturday in May.
Thanks again for this column , Steve Have a great week.
BTW….. another great sire in So Happy background is the great ” Northern Dance” who also may have an influence on his stamina along with his sons , Nijinsky, Danzig and Staff Writer.
Thanks very much. I remember .Millennium Wind very well. Beautiful horse. I took a lot of video of him at Churchill Downs.
Yes , a very striking individual with an absolutely gorgeous head.
Millennium Wind came into the KY Derby off a monster win in the Blue Grass. In the time between he developed a skin rash that certainly did not help his effort in the Derby. They ran him anyway.
At the time it occurred was there any reason why the son in law dispersed Tartan Farm? Also, I love seeing info that Dr. Fager was Intentionally’s nemesis. Great stuff.
He was In Reality’s nemesis. One race Dr Fager tried to savage him. Binger really wasnt that devoted to racing.
Thank you for the correction. I had a hunch something was amiss after hitting the reply button.
Steve: Respectfully would you think that Damascus was more of a rival to Dr. Fager or more of a nemesis?
Thanks
Thank you, Steve. This brings back fond memories of Tartan Stable and Farm. But it makes me sad to think of how much the breeding industry in Florida has declined over the past couple of decades.
Meanwhile….Bill Mott, per DRF’s Dave Grening, says that Chief Wallabee will be racing with blinkers for the first time in the Derby. This will send me to the Derby records in search of similar late changes Will I find precedent?
Blinkers likely, that is.
I doubt it. He should watch Palace Malice in the Derby with blinkers on.But this is a double edge sword. I have written several times about a habit he has and blinkers should help that problem. I will dissect that further next week.
That move worked for him in the Breeders Cup Classic with Drosselmeyer.
Sorry, I’m mistaken. It was blinkers off Drosselmeyer.
Thanks for the Knowledge Steve. Wondering which of the 2 methods has the better track record in the KD, Ragozin or Thoroughraph?.
I dont follow Ragozin. Much more comfortable with Thoro-Graph.
Hi Steve. Love your work. And speaking of work, do you know why Renegade has not worked since his last race on 3/28? Seems like a long time to me. Thanks and keep up the great work!
Thank you Bob I contacted someone close to the horse about it and he said and I quote “He’s fine.” The fact is he hasnt worked but I’ll take his word for it.
I looked for all of Pletcher’s runners since 2015 whose final prep was five or six weeks from the Derby. Those with 19 or 20 days from prep to first workout were Fierceness, Pioneer of Medina, Cutting Humor, and Spinoff. All of them were awful in the Derby. Eleven had 13 or 14 days from prep to first workout. One was Derby winner Always Dreaming. Audible finished 3rd the following year. The rest were off the board.
Not necessarily a good sign for Renegade.
Excellent research.
Thanks, Steve.
This is a great comment, Mike C. It feels like most years at this time, people are inclined to overlook some of the negative trends associated with Todd in the derby (65-2-2-4). I was just discussing Uncle Mo and Forte with a friend this week and we joked that Todd will be lucky to get Renegade into the gate. We’re at 18 days right now — curious if his weight has gone up or down.
Thank you, Russ. Time will tell. I’m on hold about Renegade. You know, from all of those Derby starters, only two were post-time favorites. Always Dreaming and Fierceness.
You nailed it, Mike.
Hi Steve
You were fortunate to have had such a close relationship with your friend, John Nerud. I’m sure you cherish the memories of your visits to his estate in Old Brookville.
Thank you for pointing out the legacy that Fappiano established as a top sire, and the success of his descendants over the years. With respect to the inbreeding of Fappiano, Emerging Market stands out as the colt that should benefit from that inbreeding, IMO.
I like what you had to say about Fulleffort, one of my longshots that I’ll be using in some of my exotic wagers. Also, Danon Bourbon’s pedigree caught my attention, so much so, that I boxed him with Potent, in a $20.00 exacta wager, in Pool 6.
Thanks again for posting the “Fappiano Feature”, and the accompanying comments on Derby Rankings Updates.
His biggest influence does look like it is to Emerging Market.
Thanks for the quick reply, Steve.
If Emerging Market can replicate his Louisiana Derby win, he’ll be a major player in the Derby, IMO. BTW, his finishing time in that 1 3/16-mile race, was less than a second off the track record, set by Epicenter in 2022.
I’m starting to like Emerging Market more and more.
The Thoro-Graph numbers for the first 3 all were strong.
Thanks, Steve, that’s good to know.
Apparently the SA Derby did not rate highly, in The Ragozin Numbers….I’m still bullish on Potente…along with Renegade…
I saw The Rags numbers. They had the San Felipe much slower than Thoro-Graph and really much slower in the SA Derby.
Steve:
Thanks for the history lesson re Nerud/Fappiano: During the Derby trail, we all get the benefit of your vast knowledge: I know I have learned a great deal over the years.
Even though I have several horses covered in futures, including 2 of the top 3 (Renegade and Commitment) I would still not be surprised if a horse I am not on were to win. It definitely will be a great betting race: I would be very surprised if payouts are as low as last year!
Just read where Chief Wallabee will be ‘first time blinkers’ for the Derby: Is that a good angle?
Blinker change in the Derby is something I have never liked
I am still trying to figure out Chief Wallabee run in the Florida Derby… It is still a puzzler with me.
He’s still learning. He will mature.. has a few habits I dont like and although I dont like blinkers on in the Derby they would correct those habits.
What’s to puzzle? ALL horses progress at their own pace.
Hello Steve, you’re the BEST with Pedigree Analysis and you have convinced me that Fappiano will have the same Stallion Pedigree Influence as Phalaris!
Thank you very much . Haven’t heard that connection but Ill take it.
Love this piece about all the connections between Fappiano, Johnny Nerud, and all my other Florida favorites: Aspidistra, Ta Wee, In Reality, Unbridled, and Intentionally. I previously had only a vague notion of how dominant Fappiano is in modern classic pedigrees until I read this. Pretty amazing! I notice that of all the Fappiano connections in this year’s Derby horses, only two — Fulleffort and Emerging Market — are male tail-line descendants. Yet another intriguing betting angle on this hardest of hard to figure Derbies. To top it all off, you’ve made an excellent case for So Happy as a potential winner, with that negative ¼ ThoroGraph figure in the Santa Anita Derby. If he can pair that up, he’ll be right there at the end. Nice job!
Thanks Ms B
Hi Steve … Re: Thoro-Graph pattern for So Happy, are you concerned about a bounce in the Kentucky Derby? I get an interpretation of Ragozin on youtube from Jonathan Hardoun. Consistent with what you reported, last week he said Santa Anita Derby (and Wood for that matter) were weak this year and I assume he’s basing that on Ragozin data. Any idea how often these data sources contradict each other?
Thanks …. Paul
Paul, enjoy your comments.
These were really different. I was surprised when Hardoon and his co host gave those numbers.
Steve I too, was surprised…I respect Hardoon, he is usually correct….but I’m still bullish, on Potente, 3rd career race and a colt was lapped on him…. he’s going to be settled, in the big race….and Robusta finished last….