2026 Kentucky Derby Rankings – Week 1
CThis may have been the most challenging initial Derby Rankings we’ve ever done. Or have I said that before? Either way, what makes this group so difficult to figure, with the exception of Ted Noffey, who so far appears to have zero flaws, is the fact that many of the proven stakes horses still have question marks and the later developing colts, who have been brilliant in maiden and allowance races, have yet to prove themselves going two turns and against stakes-caliber horses. So rather than speculate due to the number of spectacular maiden horses who fail to duplicate that brilliance against winners, we are putting those horses on hold and giving them their own category in Knocking on the Door, knowing they could eventually wind up in the top five. (Before everyone freaks out after seeing the length of this, be assured it is only because it’s the initial Rankings and we wanted to introduce as many horses and provide as much information as possible. The text will be more manageable in the weeks to come) ~ Steve Haskin
Derby Rankings: January 21, 2026 – Week 1
By Steve Haskin
1. Ted Noffey (Todd Pletcher, Into Mischief — Streak of Luck, by OId Fashioned)
You can try to pick him apart, but there is no denying that he is strong in every category. Some may question his distance capabilies on his dam’s side, with close-up names like Old Fashioned, Elusive Quality, and Meadowlake, but there surely is enough stamina to complement his extraordinary talent. And Old Fashioned was able to win the 1 1/8-mile Remsen at 2, Elusive Quality sired a Kentucky Derby winner, and Meadowlake supplies a good deal of toughness. Looking at Ted’s speed ratings, when he made a huge early leap (often too fast too early) on Thoro-Graph from a solid “7 1/2” debut to a blistering “1,” he had “bounce” written all over him stretching out to two turns, and he did bounce, but only regressed 2 1/2 points, and then in his next start, which was key, he paired up his “3 1/2″ and now is expected to keep improving and head back to that”1” when it really counts. His Brisnet figures are equally as impressive, with his last three starts, all Grade 1 victories, getting triple-digit late pace figures. And he not only can come home fast, but off strong middle pace figures. Some doubters also felt his Breeders’ Cup Juvenile score was just workmanlike and he seemed to loaf a bit in the stretch until he was challenged. And many feel the quality of the Juvenile field is questionable at this point. But the bottom line is he’s done nothing wrong, has all the physical tools, and he has won Grade 1 races in New York, Kentucky, and California. He had his first three-furlong breeze, a bullet :37 flat, so he appears to be right on schedule. We probably won’t see him in action until the February 28 Fountain of Youth, so we’ll keep him up top until someone tells us otherwise.
2. Paladin (Chad Brown, Gun Runner — Secret Sigh, by Tapit)
I have to admit, after Ted Noffey I can make some kind of case for a number of horses, all of whom still have a lot to prove. The one race that stood out, perhaps with memories of Sierra Leone and Dornoch in 2023 still fresh in my mind, was the Remsen Stakes, with Paladin and Renegade finishing first and second, as they did in their previous start. And with Paladin having the same connections as Sierra Leone and making his second career start going 1 1/8 miles. Unlike Sierra Leone, who was beaten a nose after lugging in, Paladin was much more professional. I liked the way he sat patiently in third along the inside, and even when Renegade made an early move and went by him he didn’t get headstrong and just waited for Flavien Prat to give him the ‘go’ sign. When he did, he swung wide at the quarter pole and outran Renegade down the stretch, finally pulling away in the last 30 yards to win by two lengths, with a solid enough :12 3/5 final eighth. His Equibase middle and late pace figures and final speed figures have been good enough considering he’s run a mile and 1 1/8 miles already. I also like that he earned a strong Thoro-Graph number first out and pretty much paired up that number in the Remsen. I would like to have seen the third-place Remsen finisher Balboa, who hung tough until the sixteenth pole, close stronger in his subsequent second in the Jerome Stakes. But all in all, Paladin looks like classic material and is likely to keep improving. His :48 3/5 half-mile work at Payson Park was very strong over that deep track. The February 14 Risen Star looks like his likely target, so not much should change with him, and in the meantime we’ll see if he can hold on to the second-place slot.
3. Incredibolt (Riley Mott, Bolt d’Oro — Sapphire Spitfire, by Awesome Again)
Back-to-back (father and son) Motts win back-to-back Kentucky Derbys with back-to-back Street Sense winners? Now that’s the kind of story we need on the first Saturday in May. And as many are aware having learned of the depths from which he and his family have risen, Riley Mott would be an amazing story by itself. But we have to take an unbiased look at Incredibolt, and regardless of the back story, it is difficult to find any flaws in him. Speed-wise, his Thoro-Graph pattern has been near-perfect, with jumps of six points and five points in his three starts to get down to a respectable “6,” with plenty of room for improvement. As for his Brisnet figures, his late pace figures have climbed from an 88 to a 91 to a 99 and his final speed figures from 73 to 85 to 93, again with plenty of room and time to get that higher. And he’s won his last two starts off a fast pace and a slow pace. In the Street Sense he was last behind a very slow pace, but when he was asked going into the far turn his move was quick and smooth, but he still had three lengths to make up on the three horses in front of him turning for home. He swung out about five paths wide and despite taking a slight bump from the inside horse he closed relentlessly, pulling away from the eventual Kentucky Jockey Club runner-up Universe to win by almost two lengths. He is a beautiful mover and runs perfectly straight down the stretch. Of course you would like to have seen Universe run a decent race in the Smarty Jones, but he never looked like his mind was into it, as it was in the Street Sense and Kentucky Jockey Club, so we won’t jump to any conclusions just yet. Incredibolt has already had five works at Palm Meadows, including a bullet half-mile in :48 2/5, and we should know in the January 31 Holy Bull Stakes if he’s ready to take another jump forward.
4. Litmus Test (Bob Baffert, Nyquist — Study Hard, by Malibu Moon)
The way it stands now, but is always subject to change with Baffert and his brigade of 3-year-olds, Litmus Test, who we featured last week, is his reliable commodity, having already proven himself in four major stakes at three different tracks from California to Kentucky. In addition to winning the Grade 2 Los Alamitos Futurity (remember Journalism), he has been on the board in three consecutive Grade 1 races and was beaten only 1 3/4 lengths by Ted Noffey in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Not as reliable so far, but immensely talented, is Kristofferson (see Knocking on the Door), who returned recently with a sensational :46 2/5 half-mile work and is now right up there with Litmus Test on Baffert’s list of Derby contenders. But it is Litmus Test who Baffert said he is keeping in bubble wrap and he will give him only two starts, likely the San Felipe and Santa Anita Derby. But always remember that the winds in Baffert’s barn never blow in one direction and can shift at any time. This colt is not going to dazzle you with his brilliance. He’s going to be in the top four, either setting or stalking the pace, throughout the race and just keep going at a steady pace, finishing on the board and giving 100 percent each time. As we’ve seen several times in this year’s crop, he defeated his stablemate Blacksmith by 1 1/4 lengths in the Los Al Futurity and Blacksmith came back and was beaten in a maiden race, so as we have seen and will see below with others, a good deal of the 2-year-old form has not held up so far this year. So we just have to plunge ahead and see where we go. All we can do with him is wait and keep watching his works and see if any of the other Baffert horses move up the ranks and take over as head honcho.
5. Strategic Risk (Mark Casse, Noble Bird — Strategize, by Afleet Alex)
We wrote a feature on him recently as a horse to watch based on several factors. To rehash, in Strategic Risk’s second, third, and fourth generations are the winners of four Belmont Stakes, three Kentucky Derbys, two Preaknesses, four Breeders’ Cup Classics, and two Travers, as well as six champions. His two grandsires are Birdstone, winner of the Belmont and Travers, and Afleet Alex, winner of the Belmont and Preakness. Three of his four great-grandsires are Grindstone (Kentucky Derby), Tiznow (two Breeders’ Cup Classics), and A.P. Indy (Belmont and Breeders’ Cup Classic). So much for pedigreee. He was so impressive early on, those close to him convinced owner and breeder John Oxley to withdraw him from the sale and keep him. It looked to be a wise move when romped by 8 1/4 lengths in his career debut. But for some reason he didn’t do well at Saratoga and wouldn’t train the way he had early on. After two disapointing performances at the Spa he’s been back to his old self, and after crushing his opponents by nine lengths in the 1 1/16-mile In Reality at Gulfstream he went to Oaklawn and easily won the Smarty Jones by 4 1/2 lengths, flying home in :24 flat and :06 flat. What I like about this colt is, despite rallying off a snail-like pace in the Smarty Jones and a solid pace in the In Reality he earned a swift Brisnet late pace figure of 105 in the latter and a 106 in the Smarty Jones, so it looks as if he can close off any kind of pace. I also like that he made a big 6 1/2-point jump on Thoro-Graph to a solid “6” in the In Reality and then paired up that “6” in the Smarty Jones. Now it’s time to take it up another notch in the Southwest Stakes on January 31.
6. Commandment (Brad Cox, Into Mischief — Sippican Harbor, by Orb)
I have no idea what he beat in the Mucho Man Stakes, and we know the competition is going to get tougher from now on. But there is one quality he has shown that has been extremely impressive, and that is the ability to get stronger in the final furlong and keep increasing his lead with every stride, and then galloping out like a powerhouse. He can also rate patiently behind horses down on the rail. In the Mucho Macho Man, he had a four-horse wall in front of him, slipped through and quickly separated himself from the field, drawing off to a 6 3/4-length victory. His rider couldn’t slow him down after the wire and he left the others virtually out of sight on the gallop-out. In his previous start going seven furlongs at Churchill Downs, he was trapped with nowhere to run at the top of the stretch, but bulled his way through despite getting bumped from both sides, and drew off under a hand ride, again increasing his lead with every stride to win by 5 1/4 lengths. His Thoro-Graph numbers show big improvement with every race, increasing by four points each time. One more similar forward move and he’s right in line with the serious contenders. Also his Brisnet figures have improved with every race, and his 96 in the Mucho Macho Man was an increase of 10 points from his previous start, with a career-high late pace figure of 98. From a pedigree standpoint, in addition to being by Into Mischief, his dam won the Grade 1 Spinaway Stakes and is by Kentucky Derby winner Orb. He also is a complete outcross through five generations.
7. Renegade (Todd Pletcher, Into Mischief — Spice is Nice, by Curlin)
Well, if Paladin is No. 2, this colt can’t be too far behind, as he did finish ahead of Paladin by a head in a one-mile maiden race at Aqueduct only to be disqualified. He then came back and finished two lengths behind his rival in the Remsen Stakes and simply got outrun when he was unable to accelerate at the five-sixteenths pole and finally found his best stride in the stretch, as many Pletcher horses do. However, it is interesting to note that Renegade, who had a wider trip, actually received a faster Thoro-Graph number than Paladin, but like the winner, received a slower Equibase late pace number than middle pace number, which you always like to see reversed. Add to that, as mentioned earlier, the Remsen third-place finisher Balboa putting up a fight until the sixteenth pole, then getting run by in the strtetch in the Jerome at 3-5, and the fact that his Brisnet late pace figures have been bogged down in the 70’s and 80’s, at this point we just have no idea how good the Remsen really was. But going 1 1/8 miles late in the year at Aqueduct can be tricky over a surface that can get very deep and tiring. Right now we’re all just speculating, and Renegade’s Thoro-Graph pattern of “14…7…and 5” show a horse steadily improving and that’s all you can ask for at this early stage. And we do know his pedigree suggests that distance will not be an issue. What I would like to see is a little quicker acceleration on the turn so he doesn’t get caught flat-footed as he did in the Remsen. He will have a chance to show that in the Sam F. Davis Stakes on February 7.
8. Napoleon Solo (Chad Summers, Liam’s Map — Atomic Blonde, by Scat Daddy)
This is such a difficult crop of 3-year-olds to figure out and he’s right up there at the top. At this point we have no idea if this is just an extremely fast horse, even at a flat mile, who is unable to sustain his blistering early speed or if he is some freakish horse who doesn’t need to sustain it and can simply run his opponents into ground early, slow down considerably at the end, and still blow the doors off everyone in a sizzling final time. We haven’t seen anything quite like him in a while. How does a 2-year-old with one career start stretch out to a mile in the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes, run his opening six furlongs in a time (1:07 4/5) that is two-fifths off the track record, come home in a lethargic :26 3/5 and still run the second fastest Champagne in its 158-year history? His time of 1:34 2/5 was one-fifth off Devil’s Bag’s stakes record and equaled the second fastest time, which was run by Seattle Slew. If you want to see the most lop-sided Brisnet speed figures you’re ever likely to see how about an early pace figure in 107, which is what the fastest sprinters in the country will run, followed by an insane middle pace figure of 120, which is unheard of, and then a late pace figure in a sluggish 75. In his career debut he ran a 104 middle number and an 86 final number. So even with him slowing down significantly in both his races he still won his debut by 5 1/4 lengths and the Champagne by six lengths. Summers is an astute Speed Sheets handicapper and knew when he saw a monster jump in the Champagne it was time to put him away for the year and not use up the batteries shipping to Del Mar. He had his first three-furlong breeze in a bullet :36 2/5 at Palm Meadows on January 14, and Summers is planning on going the Sovereignty route and give him six works before his likely debut in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, where we should find out just what we’re dealing with.
9. Further Ado (Brad Cox, Gun Runner — Sky Dreamer, by Sky Mesa)
If you’re looking at critical next starts, his is right up there at the top, as his form is all over the place. We remember his devastating 20-length maiden romp, and some may have been a bit disappointed with his workmanlike 1 3/4-length score at 3-5 in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. He is another whose form is in question based on the subsequent clunker turned in by the fast-closing runner-up Universe. But it is Further Ado’s speed figures that we have to try to decipher. In his breathtaking maiden victory stretching out to two turns, his Thoro-Graph number jumped 11 points to an insane “negative-1,” which would win most Kentucky Derbys. To get that number in early October as a 2-year-old looks wildly impressive on paper, but like with Ted Noffey and several others, you have to ask where does he go from there? A number like that so early leaves you little margin for improvement. Ted Noffey, who like Further Ado is owned by Spendthrift Farm, was able to get himself back on track, but that was off a “1,” not a negative-1.” Further Ado as expected “bounced” to a “5 3/4” in the KJC, and now we wait to see where he goes from there. You want anything but another regression. Looking at his Brisnet pace figures, in his second career start his middle and late numbers were a 107 and 66, indicating he ran extremely fast in the middle part and extremely slow at the end. Then in his maiden score, he ran fast throughout the race with a 91 early number followed by a 96, and 98. But he reverted back to his earlier pattern in the Kentucky Jockey Club with a rapid 104 middle pace number and then crawling home with a 78 late pace number. So, once again, who is this horse? He no doubt is very talented, but he has to develop a steady pattern and start heading back toward that negative-1, which we hope to see in his 3-year-old debut.
10. Blackout Time (Kenny McPeek, Not This Time — Beauty Parlor, by Elusive Quality)
From a visual standpoint, I like everything I’ve seen from this colt, whose female family is inundated with European class and stamina, with his second dam being by Sadler’s Wells and his third dam being by English and Irish Derby winner Shirley Heights, who is a son of the legendary Mill Reef, winner of the English Derby, Arc de Triomphe, King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes, Eclipse Stakes, and Coronation Cup. In his career debut going six furlongs at Churchill Downs, he finished second in a blazing time of 1:08 3/5, finishing seven lengths ahead of the third horse. Stretching out to a mile at Ellis Park, he went head and head for the first three-quarters of a mile, but always on cruise control. Brian Hernandez never touched him with the whip as he quicky drew off and coasted to a 9 3/4-length victory while under wraps in the final strides. You could not ask for a horse to run straighter down the stretch or with more fluid strides. He then made his stakes debut in the Breeders’ Futurity and ran into Ted Noffey coming off his colossal victory in the Hopeful. Breaking from the rail, he sat in third with Ted Noffey outside him. By the time he was able to ease to the outside nearing the top of the stretch, Ted Noffey had taken over from the pace-setting Litmus Test and opened a clear lead. Blackout Time gave chase and was able to pull clear of Litmus Test, and although he couldn’t catch Ted Noffey he kept even with him from the eighth pole to the wire. He actually pulled up alongside a still strong Ted Noffey on the gallop-out and looked as if he still wanted to make a fight out it until he was pulled out to the middle track. Then as we all know he was a vet scratch the morning of the Breeders’ Cup. A bone scan later showed that the colt’s ankles were undergoing bone remodeling, which is not uncommon with 2-year-olds. McPeek said he is close to his first work and that he is in no hurry. If he returns as good as I think he is this is a very serious horse.
11. Nearly (Todd Pletcher, Not This Time — Ib Prospecting, by Mineshaft)
This colt has the talent, mechanics, and pedigree to be No. 1 material once he shows that same talent going two turns in stakes company that he did in his last two runaway victories going six and seven furlongs in a maiden and allowance race. That will come in the January 31 Holy Bull Stakes. I’ll throw out his career debut when he was knocked off stride on the far turn even though he was going nowhere at the time. But when put in Florida-bred company with John Velazquez getting the mount, he settled much better, made a bold move from fourth to first at the half-mile pole while not being asked and drew off under a hand ride in :12 1/5 for the final eighth to win by 9 1/4 lengths. In the seven-furlong allowance race at Gulfstream, with Lasix added, he was up against the 3-5 favorite Confessional, an impressive maiden winner first time out for Brad Cox. But despite getting bumped very hard at the start, knocking him off balance, he was able to rally with Confessional, headed him nearing the top of the stretch and pulled away with a :12 2/5 final eighth to again win under a hand ride by five lengths. What is most amazing from a speed figure standpoint is that his Brisnet late pace figures have gone from a 71 to a 94 to an outrageous 110, with his speed rating reaching a 97. Now here is the kicker for all you Thoro-Graph followers. After that dreadful “19 1/2” in his career debut, he made a huge leap to a “5 1/4” in his second start, strongly suggesting some kind of regression in his next start or at best a pairing. Not only did he not regress or pair up, he jumped forward again all the way to a “1,” which can be fast enough to win the Kentucky Derby. That brings us to his critical next start. He has nowhere to go but backwards, as you surely can’t expect him to get faster off that last race. But if he should pair up that monstrous figure or remain fairly close it stretching out to two turns in stakes company and coming off Lasix then we are dealing with a very serious horse, and there is a good chance a victory would catapult him all the way up to second.
12. Cannoneer (Brad Cox, Into Mischief — Catch the Moon, by Malibu Moon)
Here is yet another enigma, meaning a horse who could very well be special, but still is unproven in stakes or in two-turn races, hasn’t faced winners, and made a dramatic improvement in performance and in his speed figures. After a decent third in his career debut going 5 1/2 furlongs, in which he led until inside the eighth pole, he stretched out to seven furlongs and not only dusted his field by 7 1/4 lengths, again setting the pace and running seven furlongs in a swift 1:21 3/5, he improved his Thoro-Graph number 13 points to a “2.” His Brisnet speed figure also jumped from a 74 to a 100. His pace figures of 96, 100, and 96 indicate he is fast and can maintain that high cruising speed throughout the race, as indicated by his:12 2/5 final eighth. But he’s only done it in sprints against maidens and that once again brings up the question of what will we see next out when he takes on stakes company going two turns. His tail-female family has several sprinting influences and we’ll see how far he can carry his speed or even harness it and learn to settle behind horses.
13. Golden Tempo (Cherie DeVaux, Curlin — Carrumba, by Bernardini)
When a Derby hopeful has a top-class sire, broodmare sire, owner, breeder, jockey, and trainer, he’s off to a good start. But when that horse is able to fool all his human connections, especially his trainer, and far surpass their expectations by doing something he’s not supposed to do, then you really have to take him seriously. When Golden Tempo made his career debut going six furlongs at Fair Grounds on December 20, his trainer Cherie DeVaux knew six furlongs was too short him, as he was always thought of as a natural stayer. All she wanted was to get a race in him and just hope he was able to close ground at the end. Well, Golden Tempo not only closed ground, he came storming from last with a knockout :23 2/5 final quarter to win. DeVaux then finally got to stretch him out in the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes at 1 1/16 miles, but against some proven stakes horses. Undaunted by the big step up in class, Golden Tempo, again last at the top of the stretch, cut to the inside and came flying late to beat his stablemate Mesquite by three-quarters of a length. Granted, the final fractions of :26 1/5 and :06 3/5 were slow, but he did make up seven lengths, came home his final sixteenth in about :06 1/5, and we’re talking about a colt coming off only one six-furlong race. He has always been a laid-back colt with a great mind, and he’s showed that by doing everything asked of him. As part of a breeding and foal sharing agreement between St. Elias Stable and the Phipps family (both Kentucky Derby winners), he was considered the best of the three horses they bred in 2023, but needed to get longer in his body, which he has. So it is now full speed ahead, and we all know never to underestimate this horse, who has all the tools you want in a Derby horse.
14. Plutarch (Bob Baffert, Into Mischief — Stellar Wind, by Curlin)
This colt is a total enigma, not just to me but Baffert, who scratched him out of the Eddie Logan Stakes on grass to run in the February 7 Robert B. Lewis and finally find out once and for all if he is better on grass or dirt. So far he’s been pretty good on both, and with his illustrious pedigree, if he can show the same devastating turn of foot in the Lewis that he showed on the grass, this is a horse you want to get on now. It’s just too bad that his second in the Del Mar Juvenile Turf and third in the Thoroughbred Aftercare Stakes on grass and his third in a three-horse photo in the Grade 1 American Pharoah Stakes weren’t good enough to put him in the Future Wager field over all those one-start maiden winners they have on there. This is a colt Baffert last month called his “sneaky Derby horse,” and if you watch his races and see that push-button acceleration he has you might want to sneak in with him as well. That is why the Robert Lewis is going to be such an important race. He doesn’t need to win, just show that same explosive kick he’s shown on grass and the dogged determination he showed in the American Pharoah and be closing ground in the stretch. For a closer in-depth look at him he is featured in my December 15 column. He has already run five times, all at a mile or longer, so he has plenty of foundation under him and Baffert hasn’t given him any long fast works, just solid half-mile drills and one five-furlong work in :59 3/5. It’s tough ranking him over other Baffert horses such as Brant, Boyd, Desert Gate, Cherokee Nation, and Blacksmith, but the upside this colt has intrigues me and we’ll soon find out in which direction he’s going.
15. Silent Tactic (Mark Casse, Tacitus — Magical Sign, by Gun Runner)
Talk about sneaky horses who are under the radar, it’s hard to like Strategic Risk and not like Silent Tactic, who not only ran second to his stablemate in the Smarty Jones, he closed from last despite a dawdling pace and a speed-favoring track, and making making his dirt debut. And on top of that he didn’t have the best of trips, having to steady on the backstretch and then fan six-wide at the top of the stretch. But he kept coming to get second without threatening Strategic Risk, who was virtually uncatchable closing as fast as he did off that pace. Casse had sent him to Woodbine to run on the Tapeta track because he hadn’t shown much speed and that surface seemed more conducive to his running style. He found a 1 1/16-mile maiden race on October 10, and Silent Tactic had no trouble charging home in the final sixteenth to win by two lengths. Casse ran him right back only three weeks later in the Grade 3 Grey Stakes, also at 1 1/16 miles, and he again closed strongly, but came up short by three-quarters of a length. Speed figures tend to be slower over the synthetic tracks, but his Thoro-Graph pattern of “11 1/2…10 1/2…8” is still good enough to project continued improvement, and with the “Southwest, Rebel Stakes, and Arkansas Derby potentially all on his schedule at this point, he has plenty of time to keep improving those figures.
KNOCKING ON THE DOOR
First off, let me start by saying that there are so many horses who could be considered serious Derby hopefuls we obviously can’t touch on all of them in Week 1, so if you don’t see a horse mentioned that you like he could very well be featured next week. It’s best to split things up rather than lump so many horses together they get short-changed and lost in the crowd.
Let’s begin this week with some obvious horses not ranked, such as BRANT, one of the great pinhooks of all time who was bought as a yearling for $200,000 and sold as a 2-year-old for $3 million. He has proven to be a very talented and accomplished horse, but there is still the questioin of how far he wants to go, and although Baffert said he is coming back off a little freshening he still hasn’t worked since the Breeders’ Cup, so we’ll just wait for that first work before deciding where he belongs. This colt has always had the right temperament even as a young horse; very laid-back and classy, but quick on his feet. Many have knocked the way he moves, paddling his left leg, but that doesn’t affect a good horse’s performance, although for some it could affect longevity. Right now we just need to get him back on the work tab.
I still can’t get a strong feel for what Baffert thinks of DESERT GATE, even though he has a Grade 3 win and second-place finishes in two Grade 1 races, and he’s been a machine in his seven works since the Breeders’ Cup. After originally planning on sending BUETANE to the Saudi Derby, he now plans on sending Desert Gate instead. Buetane, who worked super last week and seems to be improving rapidly, will now possibly join Plutarch in the Robert Lewis Stakes among others from the Baffert barn who could show up there. Baffert said the Southwest Stakes is also a possible target for Buetane. I always felt this was a Kentucky Derby horse, and now that Baffert has changed plans and is looking for a two-turn race for him I believe he will be ranked very soon, as early as next week. I learned of the change too late to rank him this week. The speedy BOYD, on whom Baffert also backed off, is back in training, working a half in :48 3/5 and he will at some point be stretched out to two turns. Could he join the Lewis parade as well? While on the subject of California horses, is there a more disrespected horse than INTREPIDO, who despite beating a brigade of Baffert horses in the Grade 1 American Pharoah Stakes, closed at an outrageous 87-1 in the lastest Future Wager. Even with his fifth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, he has shown enough against top-class horses to get a lot more play than that.
OK, it’s time we look at all those unproven, inexperienced maiden winners who are way behind, but still with a chance to make the Derby in this age of running horses with as few as two or three lifetime starts on the first Saturday in May. I have to begin with one horse who I wish had more than one start because I believe from his first race he definitely could be Derby material. And that horse is the Bill Mott-trained CHIEF WALLABEE, who made quite an impression in his career debut going seven furlongs at Gulfstream on January 10. There are brilliant and spectacular maiden winners and there are maidens who look like Derby horses, exhibitng all the traits you look for in a classic horse, and that is this guy. I loved the way he just bided his time under a confident Junior Alvarado sitting chilly on him nearing the quarter pole even though the favorite, THE PUMA, also one to watch as a potential Derby horse after a bad start and early move, looked ready to blow the race open after taking the lead after an impressive first to last move. Alvarado obviously knew what he had under him and when finally asked Chief Wallabee, he pounced on The Puma with a quick burst of speed and eased clear to win by 1 1/4 lengths, with The Puma finishing nine lengths ahead of the third horse. That is the sign of two quality horses with bright futures. If you could have picked the perfect Thoro-Graph number for Chief Wallabee, his “4” was that number. And his 100 Brisnet late pace figure off a 91 middle pace figure again was just what you want to see. Visually, he did everything perfectly and he has the smooth fluid kind of stride you look for. This was the perfect career debut in every way. If you think I’m high on this colt you are correct. But again, he has to do it against winners before you can proclaim him a Derby horse. But from what I saw, this is one you need to keep a close eye on. And the horse he beat, The Puma, also looks to have a bright future. I can’t wait to see what he does with a better trip.
There are other maiden winners we have to discuss and some will be this week and others next week. I do know that Baffert is very high on KRISTOFFERSON, who we mentioned earlier, despite his poor effort in the American Pharoah. He also has worked brilliantly and no doubt will also show up in a two-turn stakes somewhere. The exciting 7 1/4-length maiden wiinner ENGLISHMAN, who ran his seven furlongs in 1:21 3/5, has not been on the work tab since October, so we’ll put him on hold for now. It is interesting that he is in the Future Wager field, but Kristofferson is not. Speaking of fast times, there is D’CODE, who romped by 8 1/4 lengths at Oaklawn in 1:09 2/5 for the six furlongs, earning a 98 Brisnet speed figure and another outrageous Thoro-Graph number of “1 1/2.” He is by Speightstown, out of a Twirling Candy mare, so we’ll see how far he wants to go. The Chad Brown-trained IRON HONOR, is back on the work tab at Payson Park after his sharp six-furlong maiden score at Aqueduct on December 13. He is another of the talented St. Elias Stable-owned 3-year-olds this year.
Another promising Mott colt, THUNDEROUSLY, was impressive winning a 1 1/16 mile maiden race at Gulfstream the same day his stablemate Chief Wallabee broke his maiden sprinting. His “7” Thoro-Graph number was strong enough for a career debut, as was his 102 Brisnet late pace figure. And he did it the right way, sitting four lengths back in fourth, and in traffic. He lost some ground after possibly getting a lot of kickback, but began closing in fast once clear and just blew by the leaders and quickly distanced himself from the strung-out field, winning by five widening lengths. It will be interesting to see the paths he and Chief Wallabee take from here.
Nyquist has been red-hot this year, and he had another winner in the undefeated JACKSON HOLE, a $1.3 million yearling purchase who wired his field in a 1 1/16-mile allowance race at Fair Grrounds this past Saturday, winning by 5 1/2 lengths. This followed an off-the pace maiden victory going seven furlongs at Gulfstream. His connections, Todd Pletcher and co-owner WinStar Farm, have another runner to definitely keep an eye on. That is CLASS PRESIDENT, who won first-time out going a mile at Gulfstream by 3 1/4 lengths. A son of Uncle Mo, out of a Quality Road mare, he looked to be boxed in and it took a while to find room. But he showed a lot of patience, and once he did, moving out three-wide, he accelerated quickly and drew clear while just being shown the crop. He is very professional, running straight down the stretch, and has an elegant look about him. If he moves forward off that race his 50-1 odds in the Future Wager may be an overlay. WinStar could have quite a one-two punch, and maybe they’ll get lucky this year after losing Florida Derby winner Tappan Street last year, who, by the way, should be tough to beat in Saturday’s Pegasus World Cup.
Looking ahead, we have quite a matchup at Gulfstream next Sunday when highly regarded first-time starters owned by Coolmore clash in a one-mile maiden race, one trained by Todd Pletcher and the other trained by Chad Brown. The Pletcher colt, named SPARTACUS, is by Curlin, out of Marion Ravenwood, by A.P. Indy, making him a full-brother to champion filly Nest. The Chad Brown colt, named CANALETTO, is by Into Mischief, out of Distorted Music, by Distorted Humor, making him a half-brother to Arkansas Derby winner Sandman. Not to be outdone, Juddmonte Farm has a homebred trained by Brad Cox named HICKMAN CREEK, who is by Constitution, out of Calm Water, by Empire Maker, making him a half-brother to Dubai World Cup winner Laurel River, earner of over $7.5 million.
Getting back to last week’s Future Wager, there are a few horses we have mentioned who could be huge overlays in addition to Intrepido’s ridiculous 87-1. I like Blackout Time at 43-1 and Buetane at 78-1. Although MY WORLD has yet to reach a 90 Equibase speed figure, he has won three in a row, including the Jerome Stakes, is by Essential Quality, out of an Into Mischief mare, and is an enticing 81-1. I know LIBERTY NATIONAL was upset at 6-5 in the Gun Runner Stakes, which does not look like a strong race in general, Kenny McPeek is still very high on him. He was closing fast in that race and was impressive breaking his maiden by 4 1/4 lengths going 1 1/16 miles at Churchill Downs, getting a 100 Equibase late pace figure. Despite that, he was totally ignored at 95-1.
As I said, there are others we haven’t mentioned this week, but this is a lot of words for Week 1 and there is always next week when we’ll be focusing more on pedigrees and maybe a few more back stories and other angles.
Racing historian, author, and award-winning retired journalist for the Daily Racing Form and The Blood-Horse, Steve Haskin was inducted into the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame’s Media Roll of Honor in 2016. Known for his racing knowledge and insightful prose, he has been an exclusive contributor to Secretariat.com since 2020.
Commandment gained over two lengths on The Puma before he passed him in a photo. He had a new jockey whom I believe kept him too far back and moved a little too late, yet Prat seemed to blame the horse while interviewed by the press. But I still wish he’d chosen to stay on Commandment rather than Emerging Market, given how effective he was on Sierra Leone in the Breeders’ Cups.
RED ALERT
Oaklawn is postponing races carded for the weekend, including the Grade 3 Southwest S. It will move to FRIDAY, Feb. 6.
I seriously doubt if the Withers will come off on Saturday as scheduled. Expected to be bitter cold for the next week, and Long Island got more than a foot of snow.
Last I heard Florida escaped the wicked weather. Stay warm everybody! My furnace is now working and my brain is beginning to thaw.
Ms Blacktype seems like it is almost a repeat of last year except worse.
RE: G3, Holy Bull Stakes, Saturday, Jan. 31st, (R12)
With scratches of Buetane and Game for It, the field has been reduced to seven. Nearly, at 9/5, is the morning line favorite.
1) Incredibolt, 3-1
2) Roger That Dana, (20-1)
3) Project, (15-1)
4) Global Aviator, (12-1)
5) Cannoneer, (2-1)
6) Buetane, (scratch)
7) Nearly, (9/5)
8) Bravaro, (8-1)
9) Game for It, (scratch)
Cannoneer will be my pick in the Holy Bull. I’ll key him on top, with Nearly and Incredibolt underneath, in fairly large trifecta wager.
Just for the hell of it, I’ll place a small win wager on Bravaro, trained by Saffie Joseph Jr., the leading trainer at GP.
Safe trips to all.
Thanks for the update Bill…I believe those morning lines are not the official ones (i.e. from HRN staff)… right?
My early thought about betting is a $4-superfecta ten times:
7-Nearly
1-Incredibolt / 5-Cannoneer
1-Incredibolt / 5-Cannoneer
4-Global Aviator / 8-Bravaro
There will very likely be low payouts but the betting money is also modicum … just to make the race more interesting for handicapping…
Thanks for the update Bill… My previous reply to you is waiting moderation… perhaps mentioning other site is filtered… I mentioned that the odds you posted are not official ones but ones estimated by another website…
and posted my tentative superfecta as well
Hi Nelson
You’re correct, the morning line has yet to be released on Equibase, but I would think those odds will be very similar to the odds that were posted on another web site. Stay tuned.
Hello Nelson. Incredibolt is the play. He’s already had a win, training well.
Hi Mike… Incredibolt got the best Stakes credential and the PP1 will benefit him a lot … However, I feel like Gulfstream will benefit high speed in the Holy Bull …
I like Nearly to win after watching many times the replay of his last win. It takes an outstanding and gritty runner to overcome that hard bump at the start to win so easily over a very good horse in Confessional. His last furlong and final time are superb.
Thanks for reply. Should prove an interesting race.
Hello everyone.
So far so good here. Did not lose power thankfully. Frigid temps though.
The Budweiser Super Bowl commercial is a must see! Been released in advanced.
Hoping to get caught up soon on this week’s Derby Rankings.
See ya’ll later.
PS, thanks Steve and Leonard for getting me back posting.
Way too early for me to pick my Derby favorites but being the Phipps-fanatic that I am, Golden Tempo is on my initial list. Along with Ted Noffey, Napoleon Solo, Liberty National, Spartacus, Thunderously, Plutarch, Strategic Risk, Blackout Time, Palladin, and Renegade.
Sharon, don’t miss out on Six Speed, the winner of the UAE Guineas. He’s from the family of La Troienne (1x) and is another product of Phipps breeding.
Into Mischief is well positioned this year to become the sire with the most Kentucky Derby winners. His three Derby winners keep him tied with olden sires Virgil (7 starters), Falsetto (10 starters), Sir Gallahad III (13 starters) and Bull Lea (5 starters).
The first Into Mischief’s progeny running in the Derby were Vyjack and Goldencents in 2013. In 2014 the champion sire was represented by Vicar’s in Trouble. All three finished at the tail end but the Into Mischief’s started to improve their performances with Practical Joke (5th) in 2017 and Audible (3rd) in 2018.
Then came Authentic’s commanding win in 2020.
In 2021 Into Mischief was represented by Highly Motivated, Soup and Sandwich, and Mandaloun who was declared winner by the Stewards.
In 2023 Into Mischief got Cyclone Mischief, Sun Thunder and Rocket Can making no impact whatsoever…
In 2024 Resilience finished 6th for Into Mischief but his paternal grandson, Mystik Dan, took the roses.
The 2025 Kentucky Derby was the stage for Into Mischief’s magnum opus in Sovereignty after his 2-year-old champion Citizen Bull led the field over the first 7 furlongs.
The tally of Into Mischief in the Kentucky Derby is 15 starters and 3 wins. I don’t know if it was easier or harder for the sires of the distant past to get Derby winners; but given that the previous record was achieved in 1945 one can surmise that Into Mischief achievement is truly remarkable.
This year the 21-year old Into Mischief got his best group of Derby hopefuls ever led by the champion 2-year-old and at least 10 other prospects with above average speed ratings and riveting presence.
However, we should stay tuned as Gun Runner and Not This Time are two formidable sires that could halt Into Mischief’s run for glory…
Nelson
I’m in complete agreement with your assessment of Into Mischief. Around late September of last year, I made a list of all the colts that Into Mischief sired in 2023, which was quite extensive. I made a point of following their progress as 2yr. olds, looking for potential Derby prospects. I was not disappointed, I found several, starting with Ted Noffey, and eleven others that appear to be potential prospects moving forward.
And yes, colts that were sired by Gun Runner and Not This Time, could present a challenge to Into Mischief having back-to-back Derby winners that he sired.
Things are starting to get interesting on this year’s Derby trail. Hold on, the ride could get bumpy.
Yes Bill, Into Mischief has been incredible this year … you may also remember the Japanese Satono Voyage who won the Catleya Stakes and is undefeated in 3 starts on dirt. He was making waves as a possible Japanese candidate for the Derby but he has not run since that important win in November.
Into Mischief is also shining as broodmare sire (My World) and sire of sires … Practical Joke got some prospects on his own as well: Secured Freedom, No Joke Joe and Schoolyardsuperman… and Intrepido is by Maximus Mischief….
Let’s see what happens… It would be great if Into Mischief becomes the winingest Derby sire before he begins loosing his vitality…
Yes Nelson, Into Mischief looks like a sir for the Ages if he keeps going the way he is so far. He is the Seattle Slew and Alydar of our time.
Yes Downthestretch … your comparison is valid… I would love to see a Triple Crown champion by Into Mischief so he can be place in the same pedestal as Bold Ruler…!
Nelson, thank you for the info. Excellent stuff. Got a question, does Gun Runner have any breeding mares to keep an eye on? I hope I asked that correctly but basically does Gun Runner have any mares that have produced well meant runners?
You are welcome Robert…
The oldest mares by Gun Runner are only 7 years old this year… so, there are only a few 3 year and 2 year olds produced by Gun Runner mares but I can not recall any memorable one at this stage… perhaps when the list of Triple Crown nominees is out we can identify some maternal grandsons with perceived quality…
Thanks for the reply Nelson. No sooner after asking I saw a Casse trained entrant for the Southwest out of a Gun Runner mare, Silent Tactic. I stumbled upon that doing a search of Cristian Torres mounts Saturday.
Oh… yes Robert …In my excel file with all the pedigrees of the Derby hopefuls I looked for Gun Runner but did not check the dam sides…
Silent Tactic is the first maternal grandson of Gun Runner with Derby aspirations indeed !
There are only two other maternal grandsons of Gun Runner that have run one Turf to Dirt (mediocre runner)…
It’s an amazing run, but the top sires have 5 times as many foals as they did in the 50’s; the percentage of foals still seems like a better metric. – Vyjack Goldencents were from early crops and the mares were not as good.
You bring a good point Derbyologist about the number of foals at different epochs… In fact I had compiled the number of foals born in America for some of the years when Virgil, Falsetto, Bull Lea and Sir Gallahad III were active to get their respective allocated percentage of foals. At any given year they produced from 0.3% to 0.5% of the total foals whereas Into Mischief foals represented up to 1.1% of the total yearly foals. His percentage of progeny to global yearly foals after his first 4 crops is 0.88% on average.
It is true that Into Mischief’s 1800 foals in 14 crops is 5 times greater than that for Bull Lea’s 24 crops; but the number of sires and foals are also greater now making the competition among sires way tougher…
Taking Bull Lea’s success rate in the Derby (3 Derby winners out of 5 starters),including one Triple Crown champion, one can assume that there was more about quality than numbers in those bygone days…
I will have to dig deeper to have better anwsers but the number of active sires per year in the early 20th century is a very difficult stats to get…
Anyway, it is maybe irrelevant to compare the sires of the distant past to modern ones but what Into Mischief has achieved so far is still spectacular and likely insuperable in the future.
Some good numbers, can’t really compare eras, today’s stallions just too many foals to really compare. He is outperforming his contemporaries per foal.
Complete stats from the ’50s and 60’s are hard to get. I went to the Keeneland Library a few times and looked at some Bloodhorse and Thoroughbred Times articles from years past. A completely different game.
It’s still a good list of runners for Into Mischief and he continus to crank them out.
Breaking News
Bob Baffert’s $2.4 million dollar colt, Potente, by Into Mischief, out of an Awesome Again mare, is set to debut in the 6th race, at Santa Anita, on Saturday, 1-31. Recently, it was mentioned that Potente was about 30 days from his first start, so I was somewhat surprised that he’s set to debut on Saturday. There’s still plenty of time to see if Potente can be a contender on this year’s Derby trail. Stay tuned.
A Maiden Special Weight race is hardly breaking news. Also, spending $2.4 million dollars at auction is pure speculation on the buyer’s part.
What’s really interesting is….why is Kimura assigned to ride the horse and no JJ?
Zanytactics
I used the term “Breaking News” just to get a little attention, and it certainly got your attention. Needless to say, buying a horse, at any price is “pure speculation”.
Juan Hernandez is scheduled to ride Crude Velocity, another Baffert colt that’s been working lights out recently. Just to be clear, Kimura is one of the top riders at Santa Anita, so dismiss him at your own peril.
Have a nice day Zanytactics.
Bill Dawson,
Last I checked, the horse does the running and the jockey does the steering. Needless to say, if a $2.4 million dollar horse that is allegedly training lights out…can’t beat this field, it will not matter who’s riding him.
As for the other BB horse Crude Velocity, he cost a fraction of what they paid for Potente. Would not be one bit surprised if the “cheaper” one wins.
Zanytactics
Your comments are too confrontational for my taste. If you’re looking for a fight, look elsewhere. We’re done. Out.
Good for you Bill and thanks for the info on Potente
You’re welcome Downthestretchpp.
I can’t understand why some people post inappropriate comments, rather than simply pointing out their opinion in a sane manner. There’s enough hate in this world, without bringing it on to this forum.
Good luck down the road Downthestretchpp.
Sure Down, he flew angry over nothing, “took his little red wagon”and stayed away for months until Derby season. Predictably, back again. Shocker! Lol
Here comes the cavalry to Bill’s rescue.
Bill Dawson…a fight? LOL!!
It’s called bantering….We can agree to disagree. It’s a forum about horse racing. Not about your sensitive feelings.
Yes, of course,cue the backup as usual. He scolded another reader recently proclaiming it’s an free opinion blog,yet attempts to direct what some should be saying.He ignores couple weeks ago my posting of a possible Derby horse who caught my attention,as well as my comments regarding horses who are “diamonds in the rough”.
Someone sure is triggered this year, yes? I guess some people just want a world where their opinion is fawned over and agreed with all the time … Planet Claire
Nice deflection Bill.
Hello Chief! Hope everything is going well.
ChiefsCrown
Please expand on your comment “Nice deflection”.
Thanks.
Each year some lose their minds over price.
My comment intended for Zany.
Year after year, the pattern remains the same. The BB fan club consistently touting his high priced horses, often framed as “Breaking News”….while equally expensive horses from other barns seem to be a blip on their radars.
Almost comical in the grand scheme of things.
Mike
I’ve purposely avoided replying to your indirect, snide comments pointed at me. However, I feel the time has come to clear the air, so to speak.
Over the years, the one thing that I’ve noticed about your comments, is that they are seriously lacking in originality. You simply agree or repeat what others have already stated, much like a parrot. Just as a suggestion, you might consider changing your username to Mike (The Parrot) Relva.
Try posting something original for a change, like your favorite horses on this year’s Derby trail.
I hesitate to say this, but I’ve wondered if you’re playing with a full deck.
Have a great evening, Mike.
Thinking you should ask yourself that question. You’re very defensive when someone doesn’t agree with your comments.
Well said Bill !!!
I have to say, you certainly seem a bit obsessed with Mike’s comments. I find him to be polite and knowledgeable
Steve the Southwest features several colts that I like! Strategic Risk will get better, so I’ll pass on him Saturday…Bob may not get Litmus Test there, I also like the beautiful Silent Tactic, but I am going to put up a solid across the board wager on Liberty National, and hope for a good trip! I hope you guys at least enjoyed your hotel stay, what a tough way to “get away”!….”Hang in there, Has n”..(Sounds like a name for a future column, haha…
(meant to say Strategic Risk will get BET (that darned spell check .)..
(also meant to say “Hang in there HASKIN”….I can’t even get the joke part right!..)..
Matthew, SR was a horse couple weeks ago I commented on that impressed me. He seems like he has an easy way of going.
And Ms Blacktype used “RED ALERT” … do you two think we don’t read all the racing websites like you do?
Steve, I’m late to the party but I enjoyed reading the first edition of the 2026 KD rankings.
It’s way too early, but I really like the following:
Paladin
Renegade
Further Ado
Thunderously
Ted Noffey
Cannoneer
Commandment
Just to let everyone know because we lost heat with temps down to zero at night and 20 inches of snow and no one can come until Wednesday we had to go to a hotel. With everything going on I had to limit the Rankings to top 10 this week. But with No. 11 and 12 running Saturday and also No. 15 there isn’t much to say about them anyway until they run. So a shortened Rankings this week. And a slightly less KOTD. Hopefully we’ll be back to normal on Wednesday.
I’m sorry you’ve been impacted by all that harsh weather, Steve. Take care, and I hope your heat is restored soon!
I checked in wondering how you were making out and enjoyed the 1/21 post to boot. Glad to hear you’ve a warm place to stay until folks can get your heat back. A big storm in many places, and hoping everyone two legged and four, is safe and warm tonight.
Hi Steve
You were fortunate that a hotel room was available, I’m sure there were others that wanted to book a room as well. I’ll be looking forward to you Week 2 Rankings and completely understand why you are limiting the list to 10.
Take care and stay safe.
Sorry to read about your house troubles…
I hope everything is solved as expected… meanwhile be safe and cozy in your enforced short vacation…
Dang, Steve, I was worried about you and Joan, and sure enough you lost power. We have a frozen fuel line to our furnace, but since we have a massive wood stove (with lots of wood on hand) plus some electric baseboards in strategic locations, we’re merely cold around the edges. Hope the hotel has been comfortable. Really impressed you are going to post in spite of the subzero weather.
Hope the best for you and your family Steve. May you get to get home soon.
Good to know you’re safe and warm Steve, I’d been concerned with the winter storm reports.
I’ve no head for numbers, so I’ve never placed a physical bet. I like confirmation, movement/ stride and pedigree. My first Derby was Chateaugay in 1963 and mostly I quietly read and appreciate your writing wirhout commenting. Looking forward to Wednesday’s column and adding to my short list of favorite possible Derby winners by the end of the month.
My present short list
Paladin
Canaletto
Incredibolt
Ted Noffey
Bravaro
Golden Tempo
So Happy
Napoleon Solo
Renegade
Looking forward to the Holy Bull and Fountain of Youth.
Glad you’re set, Steve. Take care, everyone! They’re starting to beat the east coast snow drum again re: this weekend, and calling for extreme cold to follow. Of course my kid lost her good coat somewhere along the way last week, and I’m scrambling to get a replacement. (Original will turn up once we do.) In the South, retailers give up on Winter in mid-January, which is usually justifiable. This year, it’s very unhelpful.
Steve
Glad you were able to get out and to a local hotel . Going to be cold this week Stay warm !
Hey Steve, Incredibolt reminds me of Sovereignty for some reason.
Both ran in Street Sense snd trained by a Mott
Buetane was to race in the Holy Bull but his flight got cancelled. Baffert trying to send him to Oaklawn for Southwest but also having transportation issues. If he doesn’t go there may stay at SA for the Robert Lewis.
Downthestretch
Thanks for posting the latest news on Buetane, who would have been one of the top five players in the Holy Bull, IMO. The other four being Incredibolt, Cannoneer, Nearly and Bravaro. I’ll go with Cannoneer for the win. He checks the most boxes, IMO.
Nearly will be my 2nd choice. His late pace figure of 110 is through the roof.
It will be interesting to see the odds on Bravaro, who has nothing wrong in two starts for Saffie Joseph Jr., the leading trainer at GP.
The Holy Bull has come up fairly weak in comparison to the $1million Southwest.
Buetane really missed an opportunity to get some cheap qualification points in that event.
For what it’s worth, my Week 2 selections, in preferential order, are as follows.
1) Ted Noffey
2) Plutarch
3) Golden Tempo
4) Canaletto
5) Brant
6) Further Ado
7) Paladin
8) So Happy
9) Litmus Test
10) Nearly
11) Incredibolt
12) Cannoneer
13) Envision
14) Renegade
15) Commandment
The upcoming races this Saturday, (Holy Bull, Southwest and Withers) could shake things up significantly.
Hey Bill:
Looks like you were REALLY impressed with Canaletto. I like him too, just added him farther down my list, now with 15 entries. I debated whether to add D’Code, since he’s by Speightstown, but since Speightstown has sired horses able to go longer than he himself did, I put him in the mix.
1 Ted Noffey
2 Paladin
3 Litmus Test
4 Further Ado
5 Brant
6 Commandment
7 Strategic Risk
8 Golden Tempo
9 Blackout Time
10 Canaletto
11 Nearly
12 Cannoneer
13 Renegade
14 D’Code
15 Mesquite
Hi Ms Blacktype
Thank you for posting your top 15, we’re fairly close on our selections. I would like to see more of the regulars post their top 15. However, first and foremost, I would venture to say that all of us look to Steve’s Weekly Derby Rankings as a guide down the Derby trail. He’s been right there or there abouts, year after year.
Hi Bill… following your lead I am just listing my top 15 for the fun of it:
Paladin
Ted Noffey
Litmus Test
Brant
Napoleon Solo
Golden Tempo
Nearly
Cannoneer
Blackout Time
Liberty National
Strategic Risk
Further Ado
So Happy
Renegade
I am waiting to see how first-out-sensations like Canaletto, Thunderously, Chief Wallabee, The Puma, D’Code, Iron Honor, Mob, and Envision perform against higher caliber horses and after facing some of the top 15…
I missed Commandment to make 15 …
Nelson
Thanks for posting your top 15.
With the exception of Napoleon Solo, Blackout Time, Liberty National and Strategic Risk, we’re in lock step with the other eleven.
BTW, are your top 15 listed in preferential order? Just wondering.
It is in preferential order
Thanks for the reply, Nelson.
I thought they were in preferential order. Just wanted to make sure.
Good luck.
Canaletto opened at 60-1 yesterday; was 45-1 this morning; now 20-1 co-third choice at William Hill
three Gulfstream winners getting some play the last few weeks.
Absolutely
Must be large bets moving the lines, maybe from Florida!
Hey biggy312
I’m not surprised that Canaletto’s odds have dropped so dramatically. I can’t wait to see him in his next start, hopefully the FOY.
Bill:
I am very much looking forward to his next start too…
Steve, are you buried there in Connecticut? I hope you have a garage and a snow removal service!
Count me in as one of those impressed with Canaletto’s debut win. This handsome son of Into Mischief was well within himself in a very professional performance winning off by 8 lengths and wanting more. He has a beautiful stride and is a pleasure to watch. Let’s hope that Chad considers him for the Fountain of Youth next.
Dewey
Welcome aboard the Canaletto bandwagon, there’s plenty of room. I share your hope that Chad Brown points him to the FOY for his next outing. He appears to be well bred for the Classic distance, especially on his dam’s tail-female side.
Thanks, Bill. I mean, what’s not to like? Bred for distance and a pushbutton horse who runs straight with a beautiful stride and a strong finish. Hope his bandwagon doesn’t get too crowded as it’ll kill the odds, ha, ha!
Come on, Chad, you know you got a good one and if you’re seriously considering the Derby, you gotta start earning points. The FOY, just do it. Watch out Ted Noffey, the competition is getting tougher.
Dewey
It’s good to know we are in lock step with Canaletto moving forward.
I’m anxious to see where Steve will list him in his Derby Rankings Week 2.
BTW, who do you like in the Holy Bull? With the scratch of Buetane, I’ll go with Cannoneer for the win.
Bill, I’m going with Nearly in the Holy Bull. This son of Not This Time has a lot of upside and appears to be coming into this race in good order. Just a hunch. Good luck to you.
Dewey
Nearly is certainly one of the top three entered and deserves a lot of respect. I’m just partial to Into Mischief colts, which is the reason I’m going with Cannoneer.
BTW, keep an eye on Solitude Dude entered in the Swale Stakes (R8) on the Holy Bull undercard. By hot sire Yaupon, out of an Into Mischief mare, he’s undefeated in two starts, winning by wide margins. He’s in the capable hands of the leading trainer, at GP, Saffie Joseph Jr. A win in the Swale could propel Solitude Dude in a Derby prep race down the road.
Good luck to you as well, Dewey.
Bill, I’m going with Nearly in the Holy Bull. This son of Not This Time has a lot of upside and appears to be coming into this race in good order. Just a hunch. Good luck to you.
Canaletto…in a hand shove 1:36 1/5 at Gulfstream, today, 8 lengths, how’s that, for a debut race, Brown/Prat…
(I rewatched it that’s a serious talent..)…
Matthew W, Bill D and Nelson.. I too watched the race race and did not come away as impressed about him as you 3 did. I did not think the time of the race was that impressive especially the way the speed of the track was playing and it was a one turn mile and you have to wonder what or who did he really beat in here. And he is by Into Mischief running on near the front end and those type are about good for a mile to a 1 1/16 (IMO). I was more impressed with Code Review in race # 3. If Canaletto running style changes to a midpack to closer and he runs really well I might change my mind about him but for now congrats to him on his win but I will look for better.
Good luck “looking for better”. 🙂
Have been impressed with Chief Wallabee, So Happy, Commandment, Strategic Risk, Further Ado.
Your point about the quality of the fields is valid. That also rings true with the field Code Review defeated specially after the scratches of Juddmonte’s Deep Flame and Azam.
Being impressed by any given runner is mostly subjective but in my mind there are some metrics putting Canaletto above Code Review when it comes to being apt to Classic distances…
I said Canaletto was impressive in his gallop out and for winning very easily at a mile in his debut which is much better than doing it at 6 furlongs. Canaletto finished in 12 2/5 whereas Code Review did it in 13 1/5 … to me this makes Canaletto better suited (in theory) for the Classics.
The 1:36 1/5 is the best time for a mile at Gulfstream since Mindframe’s 1:36 1/5 in winning the Gulfstream Park Mile in March last year and Tappan Street’s 1:36 3/5 in December… I am pretty sure that the speed figures will confirm how good Canaletto was on debut… even Commandment logged 1:38 1/5 in winning the Mucho Macho Man Stakes by 7 lenghts… the same time Class President did for his winning debut back on December 27th.
What does not compute in my mind is that you are more impressed with Code Review who went 21 4/5 and 44 4/5 and then complain that Canaletto has to be a closer to be counting in your list of Derby prospects.
At this stage there are a dozen of hopefuls above Canaletto in the rankings but he is top three best debutant this year.
What I like about Canaletto is that is not as big as other Into Mischief progeny but very nimble and suited to longer distances.
Anyway, I always wait until the third start to better judge the real talent of youngsters… meanwhile, let’s enjoy the carnival of talented youngsters every weekend.
Well said, Nelson.
You’re absolutely right, “being impressed by any given runner is mostly subjective.” I try to remain objective in my approach to the handicapping process, but at the end of the day, I believe all of us are guilty of a having a subjective viewpoint to one degree or another.
BTW, at last count, there are twelve Into Mischief colts on this year’s Derby trail. That probably doesn’t set to well with Downthestretchpp. 🙂
I got eight (8) sons of Into Mischief in the trail:
Ted Noffey
Renegade
Cannoneer
Commandment
Plutarch
Provenance
Into the Beast
Canaletto (pending Brown’s roadmap for him)
Which ones am I missing ?
Hi Nelson
You missed Rebel Instinct, Envision and Gallivant. I probably jumped the gun by including Potente on my Derby trail list, but I would think that this Into Mischief colt, trained by Bob Baffert, is set to debut in short order. On Jan. 11th, he worked a bullet 4 furlongs in 46.40 (1/90) which should indicate is well cranked.
Steve mentioned that Potente is about 30 days away from his first race, and he’s getting a “late start”. I agree that he’s getting a late start, but it’s not “too” late, IMO.
BTW, if you get a chance, check out the video of Envision’s debut race at Turfway Park, on 12-26. He’s a big, long striding grey colt that can really eat up the ground. His pedigree reflects stamina and class on top, and on the bottom, IMO.
Bill, have nothing against Into Mischief ‘s. Just not front runner early in their early just would rather see them run as a mid pack to closer.
That should have read “early in their 3 year old career.
No problem Downthestretchpp. Running styles vary, and are certainly something to consider, but what matters most is how they finish. I’m a sucker for deep closers, that is way I’m so high on Golden Tempo, recent winner of the Lecomte Stakes. He checks a lot of boxes, IMO.
Hi Steve – I see that Class President drew PP1 with JV aboard in SAT Swale at 7F at GP park in a small field of 6 where he will likely be the FAV. What do you think of this race for CP in terms of continuing on his goal as a Derby horse? There’s plenty of time after the Swale for MAR and APR preps to get derby points and to stretch him out. What do you think of this move to run CP in the Swale.
A lot of commentators like Further Ado – he returned to the work tab today at Payson Park, should need 5-6 works, and they see where he goes. He won the Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs.
Pack a Lunch – 14 entered in Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn – Looks like a lot of early speed in this race. D’Code, Buetane, Strategic Risk, Soldier N Diplomat. I assume a few will scratch.
Reclamation
D’Code,
Buetane,
Rancho Santa Fe
Litmus Test
Circle Tap
Liberty National
Spirit of Royal
Strategic Risk
Bricklin
Silent Tactic
Baytown Dreamer
Soldier N Diplomat
Sleepingonfreedom
A very competitive field, to say the least. D’ Code looked very impressive wiring the field in his first out maiden win over the Oaklawn Park track. However, I would think that Strategic Risk will go off as the post time favorite.
That said, I’m hoping Rancho Santa Fe can pull off the upset, probably at double digit odds. In Futures Pool 2, I have a $20.00 win bet oh RSF, at 83-1. In addition, I keyed him on top, with Renegade (63-1), Rebel Instinct (34-1), Into the Beast (213-1), Boyd (22-1) and Ted Noffey (7-1) underneath in a $4.00 exacta wager.
Safe trips to all.
Just a reminder of on the 7th race at GP today that Steve pointed out on his KOTD segment. With the scratch of Hickman Creek, it appears that Spartacus and Canaletto are the top two colts in the field. As a big fan of Into Mischief colts, I’ll go with Canaletto for the win.
The race goes off in about an hour.
Thanks for the reminder Bill… Canaletto looks like a million bucks with his classy bowed neck! I like the son of Into Mischief more than Spartacus … let’s just enjoy the race now and see who is best debuting at the mile …
You’re welcome, Nelson.
Canaletto looked very impressive drawing off for the win in 1:36.28, by open lengths. Gotta love these Into Mischief colts.
Impressive indeed ! Canaletto looks way faster and more reliable than Sandman… which is very telling about his future.
Based on the way Canaletto won today, drawing off by 8 lengths, under a hand ride, I would not be surprised to see Chad Brown point him to the Fountain of Youth. We’ll see.
Kudos to both you and Nelson, Bill, for picking the winner. I agree that Chad’s best option for Canaletto might be the Fountain of Youth, with one more prep before the Derby after that. I don’t see Chad skipping the Derby this time for the Preakness if he has the right horse.
Thanks, Ms Blacktype
It appears that Canaletto could be something special moving forward. Hopefully, he stays healthy and will make his connections proud of their Into Mischief colt.
Thanks Ms Blacktype… I would not pitch Canaletto against probably Ted Noffey in the FoY in just his second start… I would play conservatively with only one start and go to an Allowance first… who knows? It all depends on Chad Brown’s assessments of Canaletto’s readiness at Stakes level…
Six Speed wins UAE 2000 Guineas – sounds like the plan is to race next in the UAE Derby. He has shown speed in all his races.
Top three from the Pegasus are seven years old …winner Skipprlongstocking—cost $37K, as a 2yo….
Whitey cost $40k…..top three are all 7yo FULL HORSES ….
$37K..and $40k…..have earned $5.2 and $7.5 million …the $3 million yearlings aren’t the only stars …
Yes, and they’ve given their owners the very best. Time to send them off to stud — I for one like that neither of their pedigrees is fashionable. We need some new blood out there!
Hi Steve – very snowy here in ohio. Any word on where Class President may run next? After his bullet work on SAT and his impressive MSW at GP on 12-27, he looks ready to handle a derby prep. So glad to have bet him at 50-1 in KDFW3. Pletcher has several derby prep caliber horses and even though he tries to split them up, I would be glad to see CP in a FEB Derby prep. Also hoping Irad retains the mount. Thanks Steve.
I asked Elliott Walden and he said they havent figured it out yet.
Hi Joe;
Is there any way you could get a bet down on William Hill? Class President is currently 150-1; it would be nice if you could add at those odds. I never bet Pletcher horses in Derby futures, but am making an exception due to your insight.
Hi Biggy, that 150-1 is unbelievable. I’ll stand Pat on my wagers I have at 50-1 with CP. I bet him to win and boxed him with Paladin and All Others. The biggest win I ever had was a Pletcher horse. RIP Always Dreaming. I had AD at 42-1 in KDFW to win and $30 EX box with all others. Both of those bets hit for a Big Payoff. Good luck on your futures bet Biggy, definitely jump on CP at 150-1, he’s worth the risk. Big colt with a good pedigree.
Thanks Joe!
Best of luck to you too!
Hey Joe P,
Class President is entered in the Swale Stakes at Gulfstream this Saturday. Should be a salty race with Solitude Dude (my pick) and Epic Summer also entered.
Saffie, White Abarrio and Skippylongstocking are why I have loved this sport for so long.
Lynda:
Agree 100%
After he lost two, at Churchill on Derby week—they tried to ruin him, yesterday was a pressure situation, for the guy …had White Abarrio gone wrong they would have dropped an anvil on his career..
Ditto! Glad you were able to post something, Lynda. Hope the ice isn’t bad where you are. Very snowy here in 18″-24″ land.
With Skippylongstocking’s win today, I wonder why his record and consistency don’t boost Exaggerator’s popularity? (According to BH, the 2016 Preakness winner stands in LA for $5K.) Skippy has run in 36 races, has ~ $5 million in earnings, and has been a consistent force in graded stakes for years. Skippy’s second dam ran 38 races, so maybe it takes a distaff pedigree with proven durability to make one for yourself by the son of Curlin.
Holy cow! I’d picked Disco Time in the Pegasus; then, with literally 0 minutes to post, I thought, “Gee, Skippy looks so good, and he’s a good horse; what is he doing going off at such high odds?” So I put a small bet on him too, WPS. I would have so been kicking myself if I hadn’t done that!
Rah for Skippy and White Abarrio! Here’s to the veterans!
Congratulations, arlingtonfan, for going with your instincts.
Thanks, Ms Blacktype! That’s one thing picking horses teaches me over and over, the importance of trusting one’s gut.
Congrats arlingtonfan … I also hit a nice 2-dollar Trifecta with the angle of using only veteran Graded Stakes horses and keying Full Serrano.
Those top-notch older horses are true delights to the fans…!
Congrats to you too, Nelson! Isn’t that marvelous–the top three finishers all being 7-year-olds!
Yes arlingtonfan… apparently those marvelous runners don’t possess “fashionable pedigrees” but they have proven that Thoroughbreds need time to show their full potential; their owners are to be commended for respecting the true spirit of the sport…
The competition of sires on foals foaled is not that thrilling … is it?
Hi Nelson.
Your comment is spot on!
Hey Nelson — I hadn’t read your comment about neither Skippy nor Abarrio possessing fashionable pedigrees, but obviously I think the same.
I had the two “old gentlemen” as my 1-2s as well, purely because of sentimentality. But didn’t they just show up today? I think they both ran the races of their lives, and I couldn’t have been more pleased to see Full Serrano on the board! They can’t thrive in bubble wrap. I haven’t been that wild celebrating a victory since the Braves won the World Series. Thankfully, my family indulges me.
White Abarrio did not disappoint — but neither he nor I saw Skippylongstocking coming! Congratulations to the horse, Saffie Joseph Jr., and all the connections. Zowie!
Skippy’s Grade 1!
Im hoping someone at the KY Horse Park put in a call to ask if he’s coming to live with them after this year, although I’m sure he’d be welcome at Old Friends, too.
Yes! He’d be a big star in either place.
arlingtonfan, I have thought that Skippy was a gelding for years, but Matthew W is right: he’s listed as a horse. I thought this was why we never heard about retirement plans for him, but I guess it’s the out of style pedigree – and continued ability. I would breed to this horse, like I’d breed to Casa Creed. He’s just been such a consistent pony for all these years, and doesn’t get his feelings or try hurt when he doesn’t finish first.
Not to mention he’ll pass soundness on to his youngsters.
Amen to that. If I owned a mare, I’d choose to breed her to stallions who had made at least 20 career starts. Sadly, I wouldn’t have that many to choose from!
Glad to see Class President post a 1/25 bullet work. 48.6 at Palm Downs. Would love to see him run in the Sam Davis next on FEB7, he’s my 50-1 bomb 💣 from KDFW3. Paladin worked 4F at Payson today in preparation for his Risen Star race. I got Paladin at 22-1 in KDFW2.
I’m going with a horse-for-the-course boxed exacta in the Pegasus today: Tappan Street and White Abarrio. Abarrio is the most beautiful white horse I’ve ever seen.
Good luck to everyone in the path of the big winter storm. I hope no one looses power, and that the ice isn’t as bad as they’re predicting. Stay safe!
That’s the way I see Ms Blacktype… will be key ingredients those 2 on my Trifecta.
Darn spell checker
I knew what you meant. Just hope Abarrio isn’t a gate scratch again.
D’Code getting bet a bit at William Hill:
He was 35-1 this morning, now 25-1, same as Chief Wallabee and Napoleon Solo…
My comment is being held for moderation. Not sure why.
Congratulations to all Eclipse winners. Most of my selections won.
Hope all are prepared, will stay safe and warm in this monster storm that is about start.
One half to one ice accumulatio, power outages are headed my way.
Just dropping by to say Congratulations to all of the Exclipse Awards winners.
For the most part my selections won.
For all of you in the path of this winter storm that stretches from Texas to the southern Atlantic states, Tennessee, Kentucky, all the way to Maine, hope you stay safe and warm.
Expectations are that my area will get from .5 to 1.0 inch of sleet and freezing rain accumulation.
I am as prepared as I can be having been through this so many times in Virginia and a couple of times in Georgia.
Biggest threat is power outages. Since we heat our house with a woodstove and have a natural gas water heater, we are in better shape than people with total electric homes. Have several alternate sources for light, can charge my cell in my car and if the need arises I can cook on my woodstove (have cast iron skillets etc). Can also cook baked potatoes in the coals in the woodstove. Talk about roughing it, LOL.
Now if I could just figure out how to make coffee!
Wishing you the best, Lynda! Take care!
Blackout Time had his first work in a little over 3 months today: 3f 37.2
6/18 at FG…
He is currently 40-1 in futures, and probably worth adding some bets at current odds…
I know. Been waiting for this work. Heading upward. Now.
I sure do like this one.
Tappan Street is 6-1….?does anybody think he will go off 6-1?…..
Tappan Street is third choice does anybody think he will go off third choice?….
With Madaket out of race, Tappan Street probably will be lower than 6-1 ml…even with the Baffert horse, probably would have been lower…
If Disco Time remains as the odds-on favorite then White Abarrio and Tappan Street could end up 4 or 5 to 1.
However, given that the best peformances of Tappan Street have been at Gulfstream and the perception that White Abarrio is not precisely in peak form I would dare to say that Sovereignty’s conqueror will be the second choice.
With the scratch of Madaket Road I see Full Serrano taking more betting money now… and could be at 10 to 1 or a bit lower … with Joel Rosario up and in the Gulfstream configuration Full Serrano looks to be a strong contender in the 3-million contest. The Argentinian and soon-to-be millionaire would still be a good value bet for sure….
Nelson:
I agree re Full Serrano
Last night’s Eclipse Award show—could help cure insomnia- Speakers…one by one pulling out written speeches—and then having trouble READING……when they brought up the media award winners, Brittany Eurton had to say “C’MON, give a little more love……and they gave a tiny bit more applause —-horsemen, and women are tired, at that time, and it showed….the line of media award winners was lacking two of the 4-H Club members, Steve Haskin and Jay Hovdey, my two favorite Horse Race Writers….toward the end, they gave out a special achievement award, to Trevor Denman…..I was surprised that he had someone accept in his absence, quite long-winded, bilut he WAS heart-felr, in his honor of.a great person, for our sport, and I wonder….and hope Trevor is feeling well, I do know he was very appreciative of the award ….
I have never submitted anything for an Eclipse Award so Jay is alone in that club.
Your Derby Watch is tops….every year it gets better…..as the saying goes (sort of)…you’re getting older—-AND your Derby Watch keeps getting BETTER! Not a lot of people reply—but your work draws a lot of readers….your weekly Spring columns, you also draw some very good posts, from your regulars—I greatly appreciate your Derby Watch…..
I appreciate it Matthew. Thank you very much.
RE: Group 3, UAE, at Meydan, Friday, 1-23
Six Speed, by Not This Time, out of a Medaglia O’Oro mare, won referenced race earlier today. He covered the one-mile distance in 1:38, drawing off by 5 lengths. Judging by his short/choppy stride, he appears to be a sprinter/middle distance type. He earned 20 Derby points for his effort and could ship over for a Derby prep race down the road.
His tail-female side has the Ogden Phipps influence, tracking back to Dance Number and Numbered Account, so the class is there. I would think the main question is how far he wants to go. Time will tell.
Good call out, Bill. I just looked up his pedigree and he is inbred to Secretariat and Damascus, both 5×5. That’s quite unusual.
We Godolphin’s fams are surprised by the absence of any Derby prospect for the blue powerhouse at this stage. It is a stark contrast to the prominent standings of Sovereignty, East Avenue, First Resort, and Poster in Steve’s first Derby ranking last year.
Godolphin 2-year-old colts were disppointing last yea (on the dirt) with the exception of maidens Cornwall Boss (Street Boss-Carbis Bay, by Curlin) trained by Michael Stidham and Winter Holiday (Frosted-Takingtimeoff, by Curlin) trained by Eoin Harty. The former was runner-up in his second start behind the promising Cannoneer at Churchill and the latter debuted second after a troublesome trip at Turfway Park.
Winter Holiday is showing progress in his training at Turfway but Derby aspirations look remote for him. Cornwall Boss has not run or worked since that seven furlong race on November 29 at Churchill.
It seems like Godolphin will counting on the fillies and turf prospects to defend its American championships this year.
Devon Island (Practial Joke-Untraveled, by Canadian Frontier), a winner of 2 and a second in 3 starts, is the only dirt runner with Derby aspirations for the boys in blue. He will have the opportunity to get 20 qualifying points in Friday’s UAE 2000 Guineas at Meydan (post time 12:35 pm ET).
Devon Island is the 5/2-favorite but I see Six Speed (Not This Time-Browse, by Medaglia d’Oro) at 6 to 1 as a strong contender in the mile contest. Six Speed won the UAE 2000 Guineas TRIAL at 7 furlongs very easily 20 days ago defeating 6 of his rivals tomorrow.
Brotherly Love (Zoustar-Rubi Love(CHI), by Scat Daddy), the half brother fo the popular Heart of Honor, also for the Osborne family, looks to be a threat if he manages a good break.
Lino Padrino (NJ) (Uncle Lino-Padrinoneverquits, by El Padrino) was the odds-on favorite in the Guineas Trial won by Speed Six but could not finish better that 4th after a tardy start.
Completing a tentative Superfecta bet are two plausible longshots: Yamdeek (Yaupon-Stormin Hot, by Malibu Moon) at 52 to 1 and Duke of Immatin (Gun Runner-Boxwood, by English Channel) at 16 to 1.
Yamdeek debuted second to Brotherly Love closing strongly at a mile. Yamdeek is bound to improve in his second start especially if does not shy away from kickbacks.
There are three South American runners in the race who are 4-year-old for the Norther Hemisphere and will be carrying 133 Lb. None of them have been able to finish in front of Devon Island or Six Speed though…
Duke of Immatin was 7th in the Trial 12 lengths behind Six Speed but a saddle shifting backward at the start hampered his performance. Expect great improvement this time.
Meydan has not been relevant for the Derby but it could be producing Preakness or Belmont entries eventually… who knows? at least we will have fun handicapping those races with promising horses…
As expected, Speed Six wins the UAE 2000 Guineas wire to wire by 5 lengths in 1:38.02. The son of Not This Time got 20 points and is now pointing to the UAE Derby.
Speed Six’s second dam, Daydreaming, is full sister to Supercharger the dam of Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver. He hails from the prolific family 1-x … another good horse from Phipps family!
Completing the board were Devon Island, Union Security (Maximum Security) at 56 to 1, and Lino Padrino in 4th.
Speed Six with 3 wins in 4 starts and his versatility will make him one of the favorites for the UAE Derby but it will be Interesting to see what is Japan presenting at the Meydan marquee Stakes on March 28…
Hi Nelson
My apologies, I didn’t notice your comment on Six Speed until after I posted mine.
I would never have posted it had I seen yours first.
No need to apologize Bill… I am glad that the race was also highlighted and covered by you here as a Derby qualifying Stakes…!
I find interesting that Not This Time also got a nice 3-year-old at Meydan to join Nearly, Balboa, Cherokee Nation, Thailand, and Blackout Time in their rides to the Triple Crown…
Six Speed was bought by his trainer Bhupat Seemar for $304,000 at the Tatersalls Craven Breeze Up sales last year and was acquired from him by American owners. So, it is very likely they are targetting the Derby with their game runner…
Thanks for the reply, Nelson, your class is showing through.
In regard to the five additional Not This Time colts that you mentioned, Nearly is the one that interests me the most. I’m looking forward to the Holy Bull, where he’s pointed.
1:38 is fast, out there …I understand they employ no run-up, contrary to how we time races., more like the Quarter Hors races .
Yes Mathew … the track record for the mile at Meydan is 1:34.99. A time of 1:38 is equivalent to 1:35 and change at Gulfstream…
As a reference you can take Rammaas who ran 7 furlongs in 1:24 and 1:18 for 6.5 furlongs at Gulfstream Park ran today the mile of the UAE 2000 Guineas in 1:43.85 … even if you consider adaptation and climatization issues of running for the first time in Dubai the difference in track variant seems to be significant…
Nice post, Nelson! The UAE Derby should be an interesting race.
Thanks Ms Blacktype … the Japanese horses will make it even more interesting…
The horses with the best pedigrees out of the 15 horse rankings in week one.
Paladin
Incredibolt
Strategic Risk
Napoleon Solo
Nearly
Golden Tempo
Speed = sire
stamina = dam
This is just at a glance of the pedigrees, focusing on the tail of the pedigree. I have a lot of work to do.
Mestique was not in the top 15, but he is on my list. He has a beautiful pedigree.
100 days and counting….. Well, I’ve got it, you’ve got it, we’ve all got it….. DERBY FEVER. It’s the condition that there’s no vaccine for and no amount of bed rest will cure it. Ahh, but this fever feels good and it won’t be over til around 7:00 pm, May 2nd. In the meantime, Dr. Haskin will be attending to us making sure that our symptoms remain in check by providing us with his medicinal morsels of weekly diagnosis of the Derby contenders who would wish to wear the roses. Thanks, Doc! See ya next week.
Lol. Remember the old saying, “physician heal thyself.”
Heal thyself? No, not likely. Derby Fever helps me to get through the cold and dreary winter months and withstand the storms such as the one expected this weekend. They’re calling for as much as a foot of snow here in Lexington. The blue grass will be covered with snow for a good spell as we’ll remain below freezing for well over a week or more. Brr!
I just want to enjoy the ride and taste the excitement that builds week to week while following these three-year-olds as they get tested in the preps along the Derby trail. Heck, sometimes I feel as though the Derby itself is ALMOST anticlimactic. I forget where I read this, but it’s stayed with me forever…. “It’s the journey rich with experiences that color one’s life, not the destination”.
Good night all (and stay healthy, Paladin).
Good stuff Dewey. With you in Lexington, just to let you and those in KY know I will be giving a lecture at the Keeneland Library on March 18 on my book Tales From tbe Triple Crown re-released with three new chapters added. Reception, lecture, Q and A, and booksigning. you can contact the Keeneland Library about tickets.
Thanks for the heads up, Steve. I certainly will look into getting tickets. I’d love to meet you. I had your book, Tales From the Triple Crown, and donated it to our local library. Look forward to getting your updated version.
Hope to see you there.
Great post Dewey! LOL!! Yep we all get the same fever!! And thanks to Dr Haskin for getting us through it!!!
“Medicinal morsels of weekly diagnosis,”
I gotta file that one. That was brilliant. Thanks.
I always play a 5-horse trifecta box, on The Derby, and have done well in recent years…..as of right now…100 days out—my five are Silent Tactic, Strategic Risk, Ted Noffey, Palidin, Liberty National….with Litmus Test knocking at the door……I’ll post my actual tri box, on Derby Day, it probably will look a lot different!…..
Potente, by Into Mischief, out of an Awesome Again mare, sold at auction for $2.4 million. Obviously, there were high expectations from the get-go. He’s been working lights out for Bob Baffert in preparation for his initial start. On January 11th, he fired a bullet 4 furlongs in 46.40 (1/90), followed by 5 furlongs in 1:01.20, on 1-19 (2/21).
With respect to his impressive pedigree, his sire, Into Mischief, has more 2026 Derby prospects than you can shake a stick at. His dam’s sire, Awesome Again, won the BC Cassic, and is the sire of four BC Classic winners. His 2nd dam, Perfect Sting, won the BC Filly and Mare Turf. Bottom line, his pedigree reflects speed, class and stamina, up and down.
Potente could be Baffert’s ace in the hole, and it’s not too late for this Into Mischief colt to secure points down the road on the 2026 Derby trail, IMO.
I expect to see him entered in a MSW race in short order.
edit
Awesome Again did not sire four BC Classic winners, just one, Ghostzapper.
He’s just coming around now. Still 30 days from a race.
Thanks, Steve. I’ll be looking forward to his initial start.
Potente is the buzz colt, out here …but it’s late—or is it?
Yes it’s late. 30 days from a race.
I hope Bob doesn’t rush him….Travers is August..
Your last horse mentioned…..is my first horse, Liberty National, I was moved, by his maiden win, then his Gun Runner, he made his inside run late, I’m not sure he wanted to rally like that, but he did….in a large field like The Kentucky Derby, over a track he ran well at ….95-1 looks like a chicken dinner!
When I saw chief wallabee win for fun at gulfstream , I thought could lighting strike twice? Originally thought that about Incredibolt …….so is that 3 lighting strikes. Well i hope so.
Steve, A great 1st step on the 26 Derby trail. You seem to think that you gave us to much info. You gave is what’s on the radar screen and that’s what we needed at this time. The one time when I get to much info is on Derby week which leads to my over thinking. I wouldn’t want anyone else taking the “point” as me move forward. THANKS
Thanks Derek and I agree about Derby week. I’ve reached a point after all the months of studying PPs and videos etc where I dont want .my mind changed a week out.
It’s now officially Ky Derby Trail Time with your list of colts & expertise arriving, I think it to be wide open & took a stand against Ted Noffey before the 1st Wager Pool leaving him completely out. I believe he will end up being a miler/sprinter over time as he has very little Generational breeding only one 5×5 cross through Halo & an over the moon Dosage number. That’s a definite throw out for me the high index number & no Raise a Native bloodlines that is what I want breathing fire down the stretch at Churchill Downs on the First Saturday in May, training has changed over the last 10 years or so but history still shows the old ways continue to cash tickets & smell the Roses….
Good analysis Jerry. I agree there is a question mark with stamina . The points in his favor are that there is no one I like better who has shown me what he has on a top class level. That of course could change. I also like his only inbreeding to Halo and his tail female line tracing to Pleasant Colony/Ribot and Hail to Reason. Also his mechanics are that of a stayer. I will go more into that and his pedigree next week. But yes I can understand you wanting to look elsewhere.
Thank you, Steve. Excellent first “chapter” to the 2026 Derby Rankings. Looking forward to reading the next chapter. I placed a bet on Renegade in Pool 3. Figured he and Paladin were much closer than the odds disparity. I also put a bet on So Happy. I won on him in his last race, though I must admit that I bet on him solely based on how he looked before the race. I will be interested to see what your analysis is of him in a future chapter. I’m so happy the Derby Rankings are back!
It was the odds disparity in pool 2 that was crazy. But still too much in pool 3.
Nothing really to say except that reading this makes me happy. Thanks Steve.
Thank you Greg. Your happiness makes me happy. 🙂
Here is my prediction. 2026 will either lock Into Mischief into a sire of huge renown, or will be a break out year for Gun Runner or Not This Time. My hunch is that when the dust settles GR will be the break out, but nevertheless it will be a year to watch of dueling sires.
Nice job on this year’s Derby Rankings. I knew you would start struggling once you got passed the first 6. In the next 6 weeks we should have a better idea who are the contenders and who the pretenders are .
BTW not sure if I missed it does anybody know if So Happy still being considered for the KD?
All have a great week.
After So Happy’s impressive win in the San Vicente, I thought Steve might include him in his top 15. Not only was he not included, but he also didn’t appear in the KOTD segment.
So Happy was listed at 32-1 in Derby Futures Pool 3. His pedigree reflects speed, class and stamina. His next start should be telling.
Thanks Bill
So Happy will be discussed next week in my first out sprint start rant that I go thru every year.
I always look forward to this rant!
Steve
Pedigree Analyst, Laurie Ross, mentioned that Golden Tempo could carry the X-Factor large heart gene, inherited from his dam, Carrumba thru her sire, Bernardini. Carrumba was successful graded router, finishing on the board in 14 of 15 starts. Bottom line, this Curlin colt is bred to run all day. Clearly, stamina will not be an issue, and his running style as a deep closer should be just what the doctor ordered in the 20 horse KD field. Hopefully, he will secure enough points to make the Derby starting gate. By all indications, Ms. Devaux will point Golden Tempo to the Risen Star in hopes of securing those 50 points that will be awarded to the winner.
BTW, I don’t recall how you stand on the X-Factor large heart gene, there are many out there that rebuke it. However, I believe there just might be enough scientific evidence to give credence to the large heart theory.
I’ve been so impressed with GT, I placed him at #2 on my Derby watch list, just behind Ted Noffey.
I’ll be looking forward to your discussion on Golden Tempo.
Many thanks for all you do.
Steve, so sorry, I had Golden Tempo on my mind, which you already discussed at #13 on this Week’s Rankings.
I should have said that I’ll be looking forward to your discussion on So Happy.
They say that the mind is the first go, I’ll attest to that. I just turned 86 on the 7th of this month, and I can clearly see that I’m slipping.
You sure dont seem like youre slipping to me.
Steve
That’s very kind of you to state that. I wish that I could attend your upcoming lecture, but I live in San Diego, and I refuse to fly on commercial airlines. I hope your lecture is a great success.
Hear, hear! We should all be as sharp as Bill.
Happy Days Bill
You’re doing a bang up job for 86 , I am 20 years your junior and my mind is more than half gone .
Keep on doing what you’re doing it’s working
Hey ChrisL
Thank you for the kind words, they’re much appreciated.
I’ll continue to do my best moving forward.
In addition to Steve’s vast knowledge of the sport of horse racing, there are several regular contributors on this site, including yourself, that have a lot to offer with their informative posts. Today, I was very moved by Dewey Herbert’s comment when he stated the following, “It’s the journey rich with experiences that color one’s life, not the destination.”
That’s pretty heavy, and so true.
Good luck ChrisL.
Why on Earth would you rant about an old school tactic like that? It worked for Nyquist, as I recall, & Secretariat, too in the 7f Bay Shore …
Sovereighnty
One man’s “rant” is another man’s praise”, just like one man’s “junk is another man’s “treasure”.
Have a good day, Sovereignty.
Good points Sovereignty.
I like So Happy…there are stamina questions, Mark Glatt said as much, to Mike Willman…..he does have speed, and he carries it impressively, so far!…
I see no stamina issues as long as he is coming from behind. If he is pushed to the the front-end he will probably come up empty in the stretch. They would have to be crawling on the front end ( 25 for 1/4; 50 for 1/2.) forhim to last. IMO
Steve, no mention of Reagan’s Honor? 81 BSF going two turns off a 6F debut – that’s very solid. And, only a couple of ticks slower than Golden Tempo. He’s bred to run all day as his dam is a half to Giacamo
He’s very promising
You obviously failed to read what I wrote about not mentioning everybody and saving some for next week Sorry that is your only comment, that I didnt mention a maiden winner, (who just happens to be by Honor A P). I will mention him next week and I will even mention his sire.
Mr. Haskin,thanks for interesting insights as always.
There is no love here for the Union Rags colt, Mesquite. In the Lecomte, he went five wide at the top of the stretch, while Golden Tempo went to the rail. In my opinion, Mesquite ran an A+ race.
In a maiden race at Keeneland in early October, Commandment finished 4th, but Mesquite finished right behind him. Thereafter, Mesquite won a maiden race at Churchill Downs in early November. Unfortunately, he contracted a virus and was scratched from the Gun Runner in December.
Steve, hopefully you will talk about this wonderful Union Rags colt at some point in time. I love and always look forward to your Derby Rankings.
Yes I will. No mention in week 1 is not no love. As I explained many horses get lost in week 1 with over 6,500 words. Next week I will have more room to dissect races and mention some of the defeated horses who ran well.
Thank you so much for your response, Mr. Haskin.
Hi Mary, thanks for mentioning Mesquite! I wrote him down right after he won on 11-7, I thought that was a really nice race for him, then he followed that up with a very nice 2nd to Golden Tempo. His numbers haven’t been eye popping but I do like what I see.
We’ll be his two biggest fans! LOL!
Very comprehensive first week 1 of Derby Rankings as usual. The information and updates for 34 Triple Crown hopefuls are pretty much apreciated and enjoyed by a great number of fans.
The comment about Paladin resonates with me. It feels like his team is writing a chapter of Sierra Leone’s requital… their similarities are uncanny, even their pedigrees are very similar being both by Gun Runner out of mares descending from A.P. Indy and having Mr. Prospector and Northern Dancer at the bottom as well. Paladin shows potent inbreedings (4S x 4D) to Storm Cat and to Fappiano, Mr. Prospector and Nijinsky II in his fifth generation.
Napoleon Solo is one proven prospect that is indeed very intriguing. I was really impressed by how relaxed he looked in the Champagne while logging blazing early sectional times. Yes, the track was very speedy that afternoon with the undefeated sprint start Rated by Merit winning the Discovery Stakes in 1:33.45 but Napoleon Solo’s time (1:34.97) is still really outstanding for a two-year old…
Even if the son of Liam’s Map with his supreme speed wins convicingly the FoY and the Florida Derby there will still be doubts about him being able to stretch it to 10 furlongs. But as you said, the powerful youngster could very well be a freak that might be able to perform a rerun of Spend a Buck’s Derby feat…
Napoleon Solo’s breeder, John Gunter gave us Justify by Scat Daddy now he has this gray maternal grandon of Scat Daddy as another powerful speedster in the Derby trail.
Thanks Steve for reporting that Desert Gate and not Buetane is going to Saudi Arabia… a travel to the desert by Desert Gate will knock him out of the Derby in my view…
BTW I am a bit confused about the early pace and late pace speed figures being referred as Equibase’s. I see those speed ratings in my BRISnet past performances and not in the Equibase PPs… is there any agreement or deal between those two companies around the rights of those figures?
Looking forward to a happy and very entertaining Derby rankings to all !
Thanks Nelson, my handicapping vocabulary got stale over the long layoff. I changed them to Brisnet, 🙂
Hi Steve
Thank you for providing another year of Kentucky Derby Rankings. The time and effort that you must put into this, is much appreciated. On January 6th, I posted a comment of your “From His Majesty to Into Mischief” article, listing my top fifteen Derby prospects.
I was delighted to see that nine of those horses are listed in your top fifteen as well. Those nine horses are, Ted Noffey, Commandment, Further Ado, Plutarch, Nearly, Paladin, Incresibolt, Litmus Test and Cannoneer.
BTW, I went back to double check my post, and it has since been removed. I’m not sure way. No big deal.
I’ll be looking forward to your Derby Rankings in the coming weeks.
Many thanks for all you do.
Steve, just for clarification, you mentioned that Plutarch, “wasn’t good enough to put him in the Future Wager field”. He appeared in Derby Futures Pool 1. I keyed him on top at 76-1, with Brant (14-1), Further Ado (21-1), Ted Noffey (10-1) Intrepido (34-1) and Dr. Kapur (52-1) underneath, in a $4.00 exacta wager. But yes, you’re right, he didn’t appear in Pool 2 or Pool 3 (just Pool 1).
I was just referring to pool 3.
Got it. Thanks for providing clarification.
My present short list
Paladin
Canaletto
Incredibolt
Ted Noffey
Bravaro
Golden Tempo
So Happy
Napoleon Solo
Renegade
Looking forward to the Holy Bull and Fountain of Youth.
Bill, you should post your list again. I have all the ones you mentioned, except Incredibolt (can’t get over the name) in my list, which is a Baker’s Dozen.
Hi Ms Blacktype
No problem. I would be happy to re-post my top fifteen that were originally posted on January 6th (in preferential order)
1) Ted Noffey
2) Brant
3) Commandment
4) Further Ado
5) Plutarch
6) Paladin
7) D’Code
8) Nearly
9) Incredibolt
10) Rebel Instinct
11) Litmus Test
12) Boyd
13) Cannoneer
14) Invision
15) Stop the Car
Bill, here’s mine — although after reading Steve’s column I’m second guessing some of my placements. One horse I’m not familiar with is Invision — I’ll look him up.
1 Ted Noffey
2 Paladin
3 Litmus Test
4 Further Ado
5 Brant
6 Commandment
7 Strategic Risk
8 Golden Tempo
9 Cannoneer
10 Nearly
11 Renegade
12 Mesquite
13 Blackout Time
My bad, Ms Blacttype. His name is Envision (not Invision).
BTW, I intend to drop Envision and add Golden Tempo as his replacement in my next list of contenders.
I found him, Bill. So far he’s only won a race on synthetic, but I’m sure his connections have high hopes for Envision.
Week one, a Banger – so much information it may need an appendix and Table of Contents.
Thanks :). As long as it doesnt need a bibliography.
Thanks everyone. I appreciate it. I was afraid I got carried away and overdid it. Hard to expect people to read that much. But as I said , you want to get as much info in there in Week 1.
I thought it was a pretty quick read myself – a testament to your talent with words, Steve. I was pleased but not surprised that your top two are the same as mine, and I like your reasoning on why you included some horses and placed others in KOTD.
Having been working on my book (!) in the last few weeks, I admire anyone who can knock out 3,000 words with so much information so quickly. You are an inspiration to us all.
Thank you Ms B. How about knocking out 6,500 words?. 🙂
Even better! I bow down to you.
I kept reading and reading and reading and when I finally got to the end . I was disappointed , there wasn’t more to read . 6500 words ? That’s more words than I read in school
Wow, great job, Steve. The inaugural Derby Rankings have burst through the gate and the race is on as we eagerly peruse your excellent list and discuss the prep races to come. I must say, though it’s early, this crop of 3 yos. may be one of the best in recent years. That should make for some lively comments among our group. Thank you, Steve, for an excellent start on the Derby trail. Even though it’s a labor of love, you are to be commended for all the hard work you put into it.
Hi Steve – Your Derby rankings are the official signal that the preps will soon be kicking in high gear on the road to the first Saturday in May at CD. I’m feeling good about Paladin. He has raced twice and ran well both times. I’m sure Chad will have him ready to fire in the Risen Star ⭐️. Glad to have bet Paladin at 22-1 in KDFW2. A bomber that I bet at 50-1 in KDFW3 is Class President. I’m glad to read that you are also very high on him. I love his MSW win at 1 Mile at GP when Irad tipped him out and he gobbled up ground quickly with his big strides. I loved that he had a big gallop out and has AP Indy and Bernardini on his dam side as stamina influences. He’s already had 2 works since his last race, so a derby prep could be next on his agenda. There are so many derby preps available that I’m sure Todd P will find him a spot to get points while seperating his talented group. Thanks for all you do Steve. We all appreciate it.
Now, the Derby trail really starts!!
Thanks for all of your work: it really adds so much to the experience. I could not imagine a Derby trail without all of your comprehensive information and analysis…
I also like Tappan Street in the Pegasus; just not sure if he will be close to 6-1 ml…
Whoo-hoo! The Derby Rankings are back! It’s like hearing the first crack of the bat in spring training. Much to look forward to. Thanks for all your hard work, Steve!