2026 Kentucky Derby Rankings – Week 10
The Rankings this week will be different, as we were in Kentucky most of the week and didn’t return until Sunday. Therefore we are going to expand the Rankings to 25 with short comments on each horse and do without a detailed Knocking on the Door, as in my mind everyone is knocking on the door. Next week we will whittle the number of ranked horses back down and go into a deeper analysis of each horse, as well as races recently run (including the Louisiana Derby and Jeff Ruby, which didn’t tell us much) and the final preps coming up. ~ Steve Haskin
Derby Rankings: March 23, 2026 – Week 10
By Steve Haskin
1. Paladin (Chad Brown, Gun Runner — Secret Sigh, by Tapit)
Well, we still have two weeks to dwell on whether Chip Honcho’s disappointing effort in the Louisiana Derby detracts from Paladin’s performance in the Risen Star Stakes and his reputation as the early Kentucky Derby favorite. But all year, and even last year, we have seen horses running big races in defeat and then turning in clunkers to diminish the stature of the horse who beat him. We have gone too far now to back off on this guy’s No. 1 ranking and then have to backtrack and reinstate him if he runs lights out in the Blue Grass. Each Rankings brings a new flavor of the week, so we’ll stick with vanilla for another couple of weeks.
2. Renegade (Todd Pletcher, Into Mischief — Spice is Nice, by Curlin)
So is Irad Ortiz just being loyal to Todd Pletcher, giving up all those juicy mounts on the Florida Derby card, including the mount on the highly regarded Commandment in the big race, or does he really believe this is his best shot to win the Kentucky Derby? My guess is that he reads these Rankings religiously and sees that Renegade has been ranked No. 2 every week ahead of Commandment. What else does he need to know? Yes, the Florida Derby does look like a tougher spot, but the Arkansas Derby isn’t all that soft with a number of proven Grade 1 and 2 horses. He should be sharp and ready to unleash a big run. But he has been away for a while, so as long as he’s not out-closed, a good second should set him up perfectly for the first Saturday in May.
3. Chief Wallabee (Bill Mott, Constitution — A la Lucie, by Medaglia d’Oro)
The Florida Derby will be the moment of truth for him and the other two late blossoming stars, Nearly and The Puma, as well Commandment, who gets Flavien Prat after losing regular rider Irad Ortiz. His five-furlong work in 1:02 1/5 doesn’t sound all that exciting, but at Payson Park that was a bullet work, fastest of 11 works at the distance. If you look at running style, he, Nearly, and The Puma should by locking horns at the quarter pole with Commandment sitting right behind. Whoever comes out on top could very well be the hot horse on Derby Day. So will we have a Mott vs. Mott Kentucky Derby this year. That kind of publicity, especially with Riley’s story, is just what this year’s Derby needs.
4. Commandment (Brad Cox, Into Mischief — Sippican Harbor, by Orb)
When you lose a jockey like Irad Ortiz and can pick up Flavien Prat, you really don’t give it a second thought. We should all suffer such indignities. Prat should fit this colt’s running style perfectly. And coming off a bullet five-furlong work in 1:01 4/5 at Payson Park, fastest of 17 works at the distance, he should be ready for any challenge. And he is after all coming off three straight victories and a super Brisnet line in the Fountain of Youth, with early, middle, and late pace figures of 92, 98, and 104 and a 103 speed figure. A lot will depend on the pace setup and if any of the three main contenders are as special as they looked in their last race.
5. Nearly (Todd Pletcher, Not This Time — Ib Prospector, by Mineshaft)
A good deal of what was said in the earlier comments on Chief Wallabee and Commandment, and The Puma below, can apply to Nearly. It’s not every year you have four of the top seven ranked horses in the same race. That could very well turn out to be a blunder on our part unless three of the four all finish in the money and run big races. But there are other horses in the field who have turned in big performances in major stakes at huge prices. Speaking of bullet works, Nearly showed just how sharp he is with a half-mile work in :49 at Palm Beach Downs, fastest of 16 works at the distance. He actually could wind up as a bit of an overlay in the Florida Derby, because of his absence since January 31. Let’s not forget just how dominant he’s been in his last three starts, which he’s won by an average margin of seven lengths.
6. Silent Tactic (Mark Casse, Tacitus — Magical Sign, by Gun Runner)
If you had known the starting field for the Arkansas Derby a month ago, you might say that Silent Tactic looked to be overmatched going up against the likes Renegade, Napoleon Solo, Litmus Test, and Blackout Time, all proven Grade 1 and 2 horses. But things have changed since then, and the connections of the last three named are now wondering if they can beat Silent Tactic, who loves this track and will be flying late. The question with him is that, even having to give away weight in the Rebel Stakes, should he have been able to get by the lightly raced and umproven Class President with virtually the entire stretch to do so. But these are preps and he still had another one to go, and I’m not sure just how cranked up he was for a prep for a prep. And he did finish 5 ¼ lengths ahead of Litmus Test in third. The key here will be the pace, as he will have several talented horses to pass this time.
7. The Puma (Gustavo Delgado, Essential Quality — Eve of War, by Declaration of War)
Coming off the Tampa Bay Bay Derby, he needed another start, and they could have chosen any spot, but elected to stay home and run against these hotshots in the Florida Derby rather than go for possibly a less competitive Blue Grass Stakes and an extra week between races. I don’t question anything Gustavo Delgado does, and if he stays put and runs in Florida I wouldn’t underestimate this colt’s chances, as he, like his predecessor Mage, has improved in leaps and bounds with every start. They can still change course due to bad weather, but let’s hope this race goes off with no hitches and we see what is shaping up as the race of the year.
8. Class President (Todd Pletcher, Uncle Mo — Top Quality, by Quality Road)
Now that he will have a final prep in the Blue Grass Stakes, and has returned to the work tab, we can move him back up several spots. Any horse with his kind of tactical speed and grit has to be considered dangerous regardless of who he is running against. If he can knock off Paladin, he will emulate another WinStar colt from last year, Tappan Street, a lightly raced horse who upset the leading Derby contender Sovereignty in their final Derby prep. Now that he’s had a tough race in his two-turn debut, out-gaming a very good horse in Silent Tactic, he should be ready for anything with a lot more bottom under him. If Pletcher can win the Blue Grass, Arkansas Derby, and Florida Derby, which is certainly possible, he will have the most formidable three-horse Derby contingent in memory.
9. Cherokee Nation (Bob Baffert, Not This Time — Believe in Charlie, by Indian Charlie)
Until he runs in the Santa Anita Derby we can only speculate whether that monster maiden romp was legitimate or just a freakishly good race on that day against that competition. He had a nice :48 half-mile sharpener and will now face some classy colts going 1 1/8 miles to see if he comes out of the race as a one-hit wonder or a red-hot Derby contender who has developed virtually overnight into a major star. Baffert hasn’t exactly set the Derby world afire with his arsenal of weapons, whether staying home or shipping all over the country. But he still has this guy, along with the one-time leading Derby contender Litmus Test and the lightly raced and undefeated Potente, winner of the San Felipe Stakes, so don’t count him out just yet. There is still a lot of fire power left in his remaining weapons. He could easily finish one-two in the Santa Anita Derby, and Litmus Test is a forgotten horse who needed his last race.
10. Further Ado (Brad Cox, Gun Runner — Sky Dreamer, by Sky Mesa)
He is another potential overlay who has been sort of forgotten after finishing a close second in the Tampa Bay Derby, but if any horse can claim using his 3-year-old debut as a prep it is him. That is because he has that sensational “negative-1” Thoro-Graph number from last year to fall back on. And after “bouncing” to a “5” in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes and still winning and then pairing up that “5” at Tampa, he is ready to take a big step forward toward that negative number, which could easily win the Kentucky Derby, especially this year. No one other than Nearly has that deadly a bullet in his chamber. One more race for Further Ado and he’ll be ready to load and fire it.
11. Reagan’s Honor (Cherie DeVaux, Honor A. P. — Rutile, by Medaglia d’Oro)
He is another moment of truth horse who has zero stakes experience and must now face stiff competition and run a big enough race to earn a spot in the Derby. There is no doubting he will be sharp after some brilliant works, especially his latest half-mile drill in :47 4/5. But the obvious question is whether he can take that big step and finish ahead of the likes of Paladin, Class President, and Further Ado or at least two of those three major stakes winners. After his stunning victory last out against older horses, in which his Thoro-Graph numbers jumped from a “10 1/2” to a “3 1/2,” if he can actually maintain or even better that last number and not “bounce” off it, he should be competitive enough to at least give him a shot of getting the necessary points to make it into the Derby field.
12. Emerging Market (Chad Brown, Candy Ride — Wild Empress, by Empire Maker)
I am going to be very blunt about this horse. Those who have read my columns over the years should know that the Fappiano male line started by the great John Nerud, is my all-time favorite male line. Emerging Market has that line tracing to both his sire and dam. So that makes me a huge fan of his bloodlines. And there is no doubting he is an exceptionally talented horse. However, as a Kentucky Derby horse he could challenge the iconic status the race has had for the last century if he should win off only two lifetime starts. Yes, times have changed, and that may seem to be a bold statement to make, but in my mind, doing these rankings starting in January will become a useless endeavor as will the concept of the Future Wager. All you will have is a revolving door of hotshot maiden winners with virtually no racing experience coming and going without anyone knowing who they really are. I believe it would just add to the alarming trend of running inexperienced and ill-prepared horses in America’s greatest race against other inexperienced and ill-prepared horses. I no doubt am living in the past, but I don’t want to follow and analyze 2-year-olds in the summer and fall knowing that horses still on the farm for whatever reason are going to be replacing them the following winter and spring. With that said, I will go into whatever analysis of the Louisiana Derby there is next week.
13. Blackout Time (Kenny McPeek, Not This Time — Beauty Parlor, by Elusive Quality)
His ranking is based mostly on gut feeling that the race he ran in the Rebel Stakes was a race he needed coming off a five-month layoff and Breeders’ Cup morning scratch by veterinarians and we will see the horse we saw in the Breeders’ Futurity in Saturday’s Arkansas Derby. I have watched the way he’s been moving in the morning and see no reason why he can’t show dramatic improvement. As mentioned, he has to beat a number of very talented horses, but he has to show he is at least their equal to suggest he belongs in the Kentucky Derby.
14. Intrepido (Jeff Mullins, Maximus Mischief — Overly Indulgent, by Pleasantly Perfect)
Another of the horses who has never received the respect he deserves. Yes, he did have that one off day in Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, which has proven to be an inconsequential race, but he is still the same horse who knocked off four Bob Baffert horses in the Grade 1 American Pharoah Stakes and ran a huge race to be narrow beaten by the Baffert-trained Plutarch in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes this year. I was surprised to see him pass the San Felipe and wait for the Santa Anita Derby and he will have to improve big-time coming off the layoff. But he has the foundation and we know what he’s capable of on his best day. And we really don’t know how good Baffert’s pair of Cherokee Nation and Potente are. That should be answered in the Santa Anita Derby, which will finally clear up the muddled California Derby picture.
15. Golden Tempo (Cherie Devaux, Curlin — Carrumba, by Bernardini)
I know it looked as if he wasn’t gaining on the two leaders at the end of the Louisiana Derby, but I have to think the decision to alter course so dramatically, moving in six paths from the far outside to the rail, had to disrupt whatever momentum he had. it is understandable why Jose Ortiz made that move considering how Emerging Market was being forced out by Pavlovian, but it is still difficult for a closer to be moving sideways at a critical point of the stretch when he is trying to catch two battling leaders. So rather than be critical of his failure to be making up ground in the final 100 yards, we are going to look at the positive side and conclude that was an excellent prep in a race in which he was beaten only one length with the final three-sixteenths run in a sharp :18 3/5.
16. Potente (Bob Baffert, Into Mischief — Sweet Sting, by Awesome Again)
Here is another of those talented latecomers who will be coming into the Kentucky Derby off only three lifetime starts if he passes his big test in the Santa Anita Derby. There is no way to tell who he was beating in the San Felipe Stakes when he ran down the 67-1 Robusta in the final strides with the likely sprinter So Happy two lengths back in third. But with his Thoro-Graph numbers jumping from a “7” to a “2 1/4,” he either will “bounce” in the Santa Anita Derby or prove himself to be a constantly improving threat with a relentless stretch run that has to be considered a legitimate contender at Churchill Downs despite his lack of experience and questionable competition.
17. Incredibolt (Riley Mott, Bold d’Oro — Sapphire Spitfire, by Awesome Again)
As you know I was high enough on this colt to have ranked him No. 3 in Weeks 1 and 2, and he displayed the talent I saw last year when he won the Virginia Derby convincingly bouncing back from a dreadful performance in the Holy Bull Stakes. But he didn’t beat much in the way of well regarded Derby contenders and it is not going to be easy being competitive in the Kentucky Derby coming off a seven-week layoff. But the talent looks to be there and he is a stakes winner at Churchill Downs, so he certainly belongs in the race, and credit Riley Mott for getting him back in the Derby picture.
18. Pavlovian (Doug O’Neill, Pavel — Mandy’s Grace, by Bellamy Road)
Anyone who read my personal back story in Knocking on the Door regarding this colt after his Sunland Derby victory can understand how disappointing the outcome of this race was to me. But from strictly a racing standpoint, and now earning the points to get into the Kentucky Derby field, this was extremely exciting, especially with him turning in such an outstanding and gutsy performance in a $1 million race like the Louisiana Derby. And he did it coming from virtually nowhere, toiling in California-bred races before busting out in his eighth career start. He has now shown what a fighter he is in back-to-back stakes, even with the competition getting stronger each time. I am thrilled, yes, as a father, to have this colt in the Kentucky Derby as a tribute to my daughter, especially with him having closed at 210-1 in the last Future Wager. He will be a big longshot again on the first Saturday in May, but regardless of how he runs I will be telling his story for a long time.
19. Napoleon Solo (Chad Summers, Liam’s Map — Atomic Blonde, by Unbridled’s Song)
I was surprised, but in a way delighted, to see him entered in the Arkansas Derby and not waiting for the more logical spot in the Wood Memorial where he won the Champagne Stakes so impressively. That suggested extreme confidence in the colt that he could handle the top quality horses. With that said, Summers wasted no time in scratching him to wait for the Wood. I dont know why he entered him and then quickly scratched him, but it’s back to New York where we will see if he tries to outrun Talk to Me Jimmy and possibly Buetane and wire the field or sits back and rates off the pace. I can see him desperately needing his first start, as there was no way he was close to 100 percent coming off an injury and a layoff. With the Fountain of Youth under him it would not be surprising to see him try to take this field on a merry ride, but if he can win rating it would boost his chsnces on Derby Day.. I think the Derby needs a horse like this for the excitement factor so I hope he at least runs well enough to get in the race.
20. Secured Freedom (Practical Joke — Securely, by Uncle Mo)
Yakteen told DRF he is trying to figure out the situation with the colt after he came down with a fever. The Santa Anita Derby is looking unlikely and he probably will be dropped from the Rankings next week. The following comment was made before that became known, as we didnt get back from Kentucky until Sunday. I realize he has to improve his disappointing fourth-place finish in the San Felipe, but that race is not nearly as bad as it might seem. As I’ve been saying, this is a big long striding horse who had a terrible trip in the San Felipe stuck down on the rail with nowhere to go. And that is the last place you want him. We saw how he used those big strides closing in the Robert. B. Lewis Stakes when he was in the clear. Last year he jumped from from a “10 1/2” to a “2 3/4” on Thoro-Graph, easily winning a sprint in very fast time. As expected, he “bounced” to “5 3/4” in his two-turn debut in the Lewis, but was a solid third. By pairing up that number with a slightly improved “5 1/4” in the San Felipe, beaten only 3 1/2 lengths, he is now ready to return close to that “2 3/4.”
21. Litmus Test (Nyquist — Study Hard, by Malibu Moon)
I put him in the same category as Blackout Time and Napoleon Solo, being a successful 2-year-old looking to bounce back from a disappointing 3-year-old debut, even though I don’t consider his race in the Rebel Stakes to be be all that disappointing. He’s put on a lot of miles with two long trips back east; he’s never finished off the board in six lifetime starts that include three Grade 1 Stakes and two Grade 2 stakes; and I don’t believe he wants to be on the lead early, as he was in the Rebel Stakes. If gets a good stalking trip in the Arkansas Derby and runs his race he could return as Baffert’s leading Derby hopeful who you could have bet at odds of 45-1 in the last Future Wager. He looks like the perfect example of buying them when they’re down, but not too down, knowing they have the potential to zoom back up with just a little tweaking here and there.
22. Danon Bourbon (Ikezoe Manabu, Maxfield — Wild Ridge by Tapit)
It is short but sweet with him. I wrote him up pretty extensively after his second start and no need to repeat anything other than if he runs as brilliantly in Saturday’s Fukuryu Stakes as he did in his first two starts, in which he totally dominated his opponents with an explosive turn of foot, he would be a fascinating addition to the Kentucky Derby field, especially with his classy U.S. breeding. He is a powerful presence out there, but he will have to adapt to a left-handed track, as all three of his starts will have come at the right-handed Kyoto Race Course. From a visual standpoint, he is the most impressive Japanese horse I have seen who is coming directly from Japan, which excludes comparing him to Forever Young. All I know is that he has star potential and will make the Fukuryu Stakes a race to keep an eye on.
23. Iron Honor (Chad Brown, Nyquist — Orencia, by Blame)
He looks like a very classy hard-knocking horse with a lot of room for improverment, but I’m not sure yet if he is more of a Preakness horse than a Derby horse. He could easily win the Wood Memorial and earn a shot at the Kentucky Derby, but under normal circumstances he would seem to be the type Chad Brown points for the Preakness. The only difference this year is that Brown has Canaletto heading for the Preakness. But he also has Paladin and Emerging Market as major Derby contenders. So what to do with this colt? I would imagine it depends on how impressive he is in the Wood, as he doesnt seem to be the type that is going to electrify you. He has been very workmanlike in his two starts, but there is no doubt he is a winner. His pedigree indicates classic distances will not pose a problem, but we will know a lot more after the Wood.
24. Talk to Me Jimmy (Rudy Rodriguez, Modernuist — Prairie Trip, by Trippi)
After his last two blowout victories, could it be that this colt is a more serious Derby horse than one might think? He hasn’t run since his romp in the Withers Stakes, but that race was at 1 1/8 miles, so he has the bottom, and we now know he has the ability to decimate his opponents by running them off their feet on the lead and just keep opening up. It would be interesting to see if he tries those same tactics in the Wood only to find Iron Honor breathing down his neck turning for home, Rodriguez is a sneaky-good trainer who knows what to do with a good horse, and he obviously has one in Talk to Me Jimmy. How far Jimmy and Rudy can go on the Derby trail will be decided in the Wood.
25. Robusta (Doug O’Neill, Accelerate — UIrbane Legend, by Into Mischief)
O’Neill has quietly built himself an interersting one-two punch on the Derby trail, with this colt and Pavlovian emerging as contenders despite their Future Wager odds of 174-1 and 210-1, respectively. And both are coming off head defeats to lightly raced horses in Grade 2 stakes. This colt has been up and down in his four lifetime starts, with O’Neill trying Lasix one race and blinkers another race. And both those were by far the two best races he has ever run. He was 67-1 in the San Felipe and was beaten only in the final jump by Potente. Like so many others, we will find out just how good he is in the Santa Anita Derby.
KNOCKING ON THE DOOR
Late Update: With time to study all aspects of the Jeff Ruby, FULLEFFORT definitely will be ranked next week. In fact, he very well could be a horse to watch in the Derby at a big price.
There are several others we could have added, but this week is more of a bridge linking everything to the final two weekends of major preps. And horses like Jeff Ruby Steaks winner FULLEFFORT, who has no dirt experience; BRAVARO, BUETANE, EXPRESS KID, and RIGHT TO PARTY, all headed to the Wood Memorial, and a number of UAE Derby bound horses, all are possibilities to jump into the fray, as well as BRANT, GREAT WHITE, WAYNE’S LAW, and REDLAND REBELS, who with the scratch of Napoleon Solo from the Arkansas Derby, becomes a dangerous lone speed horse breaking from the rail.
Racing historian, author, and award-winning retired journalist for the Daily Racing Form and The Blood-Horse, Steve Haskin was inducted into the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame’s Media Roll of Honor in 2016. Known for his racing knowledge and insightful prose, he has been an exclusive contributor to Secretariat.com since 2020.
For many people the times for last quarter and last furlong in final preps are relevant for handicapping the Derby. The following are those sectionals for salient prospects:
In the Florida Derby:
Commandment: 24.39 12.32
The Puma: ……………24.84 12.68
Chief Wallabee:…..24.82 12.57
Ark Derby:
Renegade:……………. 24.02 11.84
Just for reference, this is the data for Danon Bourbone in the Fukuryu Stakes: 24 4/5 12 2/5
The Nakayama track was labeled: “Dirty Muddy” and it looked more like a beach sand in the videos…
The track biases and quality of the fields is factored in in some speed figures but the sectional times are interestingly very close ….
Thank you.
The final split times for Silent Tactic: 24.93 12.52
Depending on Steve’s next post will probably have my top 5 tomorrow or Wednesday.
I know everyone is looking forward to it, LOL.
Happy Birthday Secretariat!
Three starts ago Pavlonian was well beaten, in The Cal Cup Derby,science then he has battled his way into The Kentucky Derby, also—the 2026 preps have been dominated by closers, are there any real front running contenders this year…..EXCEPT for Pavlonian?..
E type runners….Napoleon Solo (if he gets in) & Japan colt Six Speed who i think will be the prevailing speed of the Derby. Check out the UAE Derby on YouTube. The winner Wonder Dean will be overlooked by the bettors…IMO
Curious: I just saw that Secured Freedom is back on the WH futures (at 40-1). He was pulled from the pool after the news of the fever. I haven’t seen any news re whether he is going to attempt the SA Derby…
Also, I agree with folks here re The Puma; would not be surprised to see peak effort in the Derby…
I agree!
Civil Liberty wasn’t entered in the Wood…maybe Doug will look at the Pat Day Mile….or maybe a maiden race, for a good horse that’s been asked a lot….
Mewonders if Great White can dirt, and win The Bluegrass, he’s a big strong boy!..
1,350lbs
Thinking he can adapt to dirt without problem.
No excuse for my guy Nearly. Most likely distance limited. Plus, the use of Lasix in the N1X may have been a clue. Might have a slight bleeding issue. Either way, had nothing in the lane when the real running started. Pat Day Mile is probably next.
Nearly… didn’t look good down the backstretch, Johnny V was moving his hands on him early—Id give him another chance, in The Preakness .
I’m glad Courting gets another shot.
Fanduel said today was their last ever on site coverage at Gulfstream. They wont have anybody on site at GP next winter.
Is anyone who uses Equibase for PP’s getting this message, “Historical charts are temporarily unavailable”? Been going on for better than a day. It really puts a damper on doing homework.
Looks as though it’s a Microsoft Windows issue. They pull up fine on iPadOS.
Your diatribe under #12 Emerging Market was painful to read. Understanding your take, it seems as if him being an exception to historical Kentucky Derby preparedness is a lawful violation and his winning the longest stateside Derby prep should be invalidated because he did so with only one start under his belt. Not your finest analysis over all of the years you’ve committed and toiled re the Sport of Kings. In a word, #STARTLING
You should limit your vocabulary to words of which you know the meaning. “Diatribe” is obviously not one of them. As for Emerging Market, Steve ranked him #12, not #112.
Although I disagree with Blaine, I think diatribe is an ok use here. A “bitter piece of writing that criticizes something or someone. It fits ok. It seems everyone is a little upset after this weekend’s preps. I’m sure there are other issues going on outside the horse racing world that contributes to these comments but, hey, it’s spring and we have a great Derby coming up with several viable candidates to win. Cheer up everyone.
One area that I do agree with Blaine- how is a horse with a great maiden win and then a win at 1 3/16 vs other stakes winners rated below Cherokee Nation? Is that a Steve and “Bob” thing? That’s a serious question. Can anyone offer another reason of how EM woujd be below CN at this stage? That seems off…
I would not place Cherokee Nation that high. But the ranking is for the Kentucky Derby. It’s not a ranking based solely on past performances. We all have our opinions. Steve must believe that Cherokee Nation has slightly greater potential than Emerging Market for the first Saturday in May.
Matthew, it looks like you found the most benign definition of the word “diatribe.” No matter. I don’t believe that “everyone is a little upset.” The vast majority of horse racing fans were impressed with the Florida and Arkansas derbies.
Perhaps some people’s favorite horses didn’t run well on Saturday or were taken off the trail. That happens every year along the road to the Derby.
I’m not “ a little upset”. However,if you elect to paint with a broad brush…so be it.
Yes, Blaine, this is the juxtaposition of modern horseracing. We don’t want to see a slew of these horses every year; however Emerging Market is an exceptional horse. Kudos to Chad Brown for getting this horse qualified with only two starts and winning a 9.5-furlong stakes race to boot. So far, he has outdone Justify in two starts. The Japanese qualified T. O. Password a few years back with only two starts and he represented himself very well and none of us knew what to do with him unable to read their past performances. Emerging Market deserves to be in the top twelve. Only one will wear the roses and the rest will make that long trip back to the barn. Each horse has their own story and perhaps his will be legendary.
It appears a certain regular on this site is suffering from a serious case of sour grapes, downgrading Renegade and Commandment. I’ve heard parrots like grapes as long as they are not sour. I would recommend one tablespoon of Pepto-Bismol to this individual. I hope it makes you feel better. 🙂
My recommendation is you practice what preached in the past,regarding being an open blog. My opinion is as good as yours- easily!
Not lately. 🙂
Perhaps you need to tap down the narcissism ‘Bill’ by staying in your lane. Thanks!
Question: When was the last time winners of the three major Derby prep races, (Florida Derby, Arkansas Derby and Santa Anita Derby) were sired by the same stallion?
I would venture to say that has never happened. If Potente wins the Santa Anita Derby, and I think he will, that will make three winners sired by Into Mischief.
At this juncture, my top 12 Derby prospects, listed in preferential order are as follows:
Renegade
Commandment
Potente
The Puma (based on the way he’s progressing, I’m finally convinced)
Emerging Market
Chief Wallabee
Silent Tactic
Further Ado
Fulleffort
Class President
Intrepido
Golden Tempo
Nice list, Bill. Much like my own — but I only feel confident about identifying the top six.
Congratulations on your win at Turfway yesterday. Did all the scratches derail your Florida Derby bets?
Thanks, Ms Blacktype
Since there were just six horses in the field, I wound up playing a big trifecta wager.
I keyed Commandment on top, with Chief Wallabee and Nearly underneath.
We all know how that race turned out. I should have paid more attention to Nelson Mann, who has been very high on The Puma. He’s progressing very nicely.
Interesting that while Oaklawn had 73,000 on track fans….the money wagered was down, by quite a lot….money was down at Gulfstream, too….a sign of the times?…
We’ve seen this movie before….Mott loses the Florida Derby and wins, at Churchill, Chief Wallabee was make ng his 3rd start and he galloped out with the winner, Mott knows how to win the big prize, as does Bob, and I just heard Potente looked awesome, in his recent drill vs a very good horse, JJ Hernandez may get his chance, on a very nice colt! Things are heating up! Takes the sting out of the recent news, about TVG going away …that’s a big hit, for Racing, I recall way back—when you didn’t get much news, about races, until the next day….TVG made a difference, I guess all of the hosts we got to know and love are soon to be gone, from us, and that’s tough to take .
Commandment and Renegade were both highly impressive winning yesterday. Of the two, I’ll giver the edge in the Derby to Renegade, who had that impressive sub 12-second closing eighth. Those two are the top of my Derby list.
Also liked Wonder Dean, the winner of the UAE Derby. The horse he beat, Six Speed, is very fast and vaccomplished ( Both qualified to come to Kentucky.
Still a lot to shake out in next week’s race, but right now these are my top 6 horses:
Renegade
Commandment
Chief Wallabee
The Puma
Silent Tactic
Emerging Market
Ms B, I too like Wonder Dean.
Pletcher will find a way to mess things up prior to starting gate in May.
Agree, Mike….he does very well in the preps it seems but come derby day seems his horses have already run their big race in their last prep…Renegade is his best shot in a few years.
Renegade is a very good horse. Most likely Baffert isn’t a factor this year.
Mike, last evening as I was looking over the points to date, I was thinking the same about Bob. N4ver know though!
I am thinking WonderDean will be a another good possible for Japan. He certainly has the pedigree!
Lynda, yes WonderDean!!!
Interesting quote by Junior Alvarado on Chief Wallabee after the Florida Derby: “I had a good trip. TBH, when I was turning for home, I was behind those two horses and felt like I was very loaded. Once I put him in the clear, he didn’t kick on. He just stayed the same speed. I was hoping the way I got to that point in the bridle, I figured when I ask him, he’d give me at least a mild kick- but he didn’t. He just kept the same pace.”
Concerning to say the least.
I’ve had questions all along about Commandment’s female side stamina, not saying its not enough to win at mile and 1/4, just that its a question in my mind. After the FOY I had zero questions that he could win at mile and 1/8. I finally made my FL Derby pick in the pre race, I went with Commandment (was rooting for CW). The only other prep I had a prediction on was the TB Derby when I picked the exacta correctly after seeing the horses pre race (went with the maiden on top). I thought I was wrong in the FL Derby watching LIVE, I thought The Puma won. The Puma surprised me in the FL Derby.
For the 1st time this season I have a Derby favorite in my mind, that being Renegade.
Emerging Market gave me goosebumps in the LA Derby. To win a mile and 3/16 100 Derby points race in your 2nd start is incredible. I saw his debut as well. Chad’s placement of EM vs Todd’s placement of Powershift, giving him 2 extra weeks is eye opening (6 weeks vs 4, plus who they were facing). Not saying EM matches up yet in the KY Derby, I have no idea yet. Just an impressive performance.
I want to say too that Commandment looks like a beast physically.
I shouldnt say this out loud but I think Commandment’s physical gives me Sovereignty vibes. Maybe I’m off. Maybe Sovereignty is taller or maybe way taller. But they both look like beasts physically, back ends are big. Maybe its the way they both close at GP.
I also had thoughts of Sovereignty vs Journalism after watching the 2 US preps yesterday, just in the back of my mind. Dannon Boubon and many others say hello though, including CW and TP.
100 Beyer for Commandment
98 Beyer for Renegade
Hi Digger
I’m somewhat surprised the Commandment received the higher Beyer.
When comparing Equibase Speed figures, Renegade received a 107 vs 97 for Commandment. Hopefully, Steve will provide their respective Thoro-Graph numbers in his Week 11 Derby Rankings. I suspect Renegade’s performance in the Arkansas Derby will be awarded the better TG number.
Yeah it surprised me too.
Renegade’s stretch runs in Tampa and Hot Springs were very, very impressive.
Why would anyone be surprised: Andy Beyer hasn’t been accurate for years..
Rich,when stating Zenyatta was ‘slow’.
Some people have doubts about Commandment’s ability to get a mile and a quarter. Probably because of his Dam, Sippican Harbor. I would argue that there isn’t enough data to be so sure. Sippican Harbor only raced 4 times during her very short career. She won at a mile and a sixteenth on turf but never got around to trying anything longer.
Sippican Harbor was sired by the Derby winning Orb. I do see Mt. Livermore a couple of generations back on her Dam side though. Sippican Harbor finished 6th in the 2018 Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies at a mile and a sixteenth on dirt. A race that apparently ended her career. Too much, too soon.
She looked great winning the Spinaway that year at SAR coming from waaay back….too bad hercareer was short lived…
Commandment 1:49.99 in Florida and Renegade 1:49.7 in Arkansas. Very close.
Apples & oranges. Different tracks. Good horses.
I still can’t believe that Nearly didn’t win that race after being on a pace with very slow fractions. Johnny V says that he was spinning his wheels. Nearly seemed to like that track before. I think that Nearly isn’t as good as I thought he was.
“The Chief” was right there even in defeat. I won’t give up on him yet.
The Puma continues to surprise me.
You can pick your horse now. But then he draws the rail, the #20 post, or worst of all, the #17 post which is 0 for forever. Whatcha gonna do then?
Now that the dust has settled, and in an attempt to remain objective moving forward, I would rate Renegade slightly above Commandment on the Derby trail. The way he drew off by 4 lengths, was something to behold. He earned an Equibase Speed figure of 107 vs 97 for Commandment in the Florida Derby. And, by the way, his speed figures have been ascending in every race, (66, 83,93,100,107). In addition, with respect to the class and stamina influence on the dam side, I would rate Renegade over Commandment. In addition, his connections are top notch, a Robert and Lawama Low homebred, in the capable hands of Todd Pletcher and with Irad Ortiz Jr. in the irons, what more could you ask for?
I’m looking forward to the Thoro-Graph number he will receive in the Ark. Derby.
At this point on the Derby trail, Renegade deserves to be ranked #1, IMO.
The Puma should be among the top three. To me, the son of Essential Quality had the best prep possible. He is bound to peak big time in the Derby.
The Puma certainly gave Commandment all he could handle in the Florida Derby.
It remains to be seen how these colts progress moving forward. First of all, we’ll have to see if they all come out in good order, and when they’ll return to their respective workout regimes. At this juncture, I remain convinced that Renegade is the top prospect on the Derby trail. I’m anxious to see the Thoro-Graph number that Renegade received in the Arkansas Derby. Hopefully, Steve will provide that number in his Week 11 Rankings.
Today is my lucky day, I just hit the Superfecta and Super Hi-5, in the 9th race at Turfway Park. The Hi-5 paid $666.95 and the Superfecta paid $205.50 ($872.45 total).
Maybe it was my lucky day because today is my son’s birthday. I’ll have to send him a nice gift.
Bill Dawson– Congratulations!!
Thanks, Terri
Awesome Bill !
Updated futures, no surprise:
Renegade 4-1
Commandment 6-1
The Puma, ST, CW 14-1
Class President 15-1
Danon Bourbon 18-1
Cherokee Nation 18-1
I’m surprised that they rate Silent Tactic as good as The Puma and “The Chief”. I don’t care for that Oaklawn bunch other than Renegade of course.
Litmus Test looked lost in space out there. Whatever, I’ve seen enough of him.
Let’s hear for Renegade!
Commandment and Renegade will finish 1/2 in the KD.
Both colts sired by Into Mischief. Will we see back-to-back Into Mishchief colts win the Kentucky Derby? Yes, sir.
Renegade ran huge, looks like one of if not THE favorite ..
Hey, Mathew W
Reflecting on Renegade and Commandment’s respective pedigrees, I would give the edge to Renegade relative to stamina influence. However, Commandment proved that he’s a street fighter, which is something to consider in a 20-horse field. From a wagering standpoint, I’ll probably wheel those two on top in the first two slots, with several prospects underneath in my KD superfecta wager.
Renegade and Commandment made my day today. 🙂
I like Potente.
Thanks for the reply, Mathew W. I like Potente as well. Another Into Mischief colt on the Derby trail, that likely will be the favorite in the Santa Anita Derby.
In Pool 5, I boxed Potente, at 18-1 with Commandment, at 12-1, in a $10.00 exacta wager. In the event that Potente would win the KD, and Commandment would finish 2nd, I will cash for $4,260. In addition, I have Potente boxed with Renegade, at 13-1. If they finish in that order, I will cash for $3,380. If Renegade finishes 1st and Potent finishes 2nd, I will cash for $2,570.
As you probably know by now, I’m a big fan of Into Mischief colts.
I like Renegade, and that massive kick, , how can you not? Still…the Arkansas Derby has a history of huge winners that fail, at Churchill…and Todd is way better at winning preps but not winning the big prize ..still…Renegade blew ME AWAY—I mentioned Potente because Bob has him…Bob is better at winning the Derby—and he has two months to get him ready, also there are three major preps next week, you never know who is going to emerge….
I imagine Cherokee Nation will beat Potente…next week….as long as Potente finishes well I like him to win the big prize…but he had to beat Renegade!
I agree with you, Bill, about Commandment’s willingness to fight for the win being a particular asset in the Derby. He’s one of my favorite Derby prospects.
Yes indeed, arlingtonfan, Commandment will never back down from a fight.
He checks a lot of boxes, IMO.
Silent Tactic will prevail.
Commandment and Renegade currently 6-1; CW 11-1; Puma 14-1
Too bad about Paladin….Nearly isn’t going to The Derby, I thought Puma looked good—hes another one the Paulick guest liked ….Commandment made up five lengths, in the stretch….both looked good…
Mathew, Commandment and Renegade aren’t winning the Derby. The Puma will make a ton of noise.
The Puma ran his heart out. Tough beat.
I wouldn’t give up on “The Chief”. But there could be a points situation there.
Nearly disappointed me. He was in a great spot with moderate fractions.
Let’s see what happens in Hot Springs.
A shakeup at the top coming.
Was wrong regarding CW today,however NEVER was sold on Nearly. With 50 points, CW will have enough points,if they decide to go.
Mike:
Good call re Nearly
Boggy, thanks! You always illustrate class, while a few feel they wrote the book on racing.
Edit: Biggy
The Puma made several runs, and was nailed, he is a nice horse….
Commandment, takes the Florida Derby and will take the Kentucky Derby as well.
Bill;
I would be happy with that result!
Fingers crossed biggy312
Good luck Bill; really hope you cash the exactas!
Thanks, biggy312
With Commandment winning the Florida Derby and Renegade winning the Arkansas Derby, I could not be happier. My Futures wagers look encouraging.
With Paladin out Commandment will likely be the Derby favorite. The Puma will take a lot of support too…
I was impressed by Danon Bourbone as well.
Let’s see how Renegade and Silent Tactic do in 40 minutes ..
Nelson
Listed below are my Futures wagers on Commandment.
Pool 2, $20.00 to win on Commandment at 69-1
Pool 3, boxed Commandment, at 23-1, with Renegade at 37-1 in a $2.00 exacta.
Pool 5, boxed Commandment, at 12-1, with Renegade at 13-1 in a $20.00 exacta.
Pool 5, boxed Commandment, at 12-1, with Potente at 18-1 in a $10.00 exacta.
Hopefully, Renegade wins the Arkansas Derby, coming up in a few minutes.
BTW, Nelson
I keyed Renegade on top, with Silent Tactic and Litmus Test underneath in a $20.00 Trifecta wager. 6/ 2,9/ 2,9
The way LItmus Test ran at Oaklawn i’d say Baffert will use him in the Preakness. Whatever happened to Boyd and Englishman. My wife has both in the futures. Haven’t heard a peep about them.
Englishman to the Pat Day Mile.
I had him in futures also.
Renegade
Hope you’re right on the Kdby winner. Renegade ran huge yesterday at Oaklawn. Thinking he’ll be the ML favorite. Cannot look past The Puma either. Tough injury to Paladin, Chad has 2 other good ones though.
CW will take the FL Derby.
Very good horse but overrated.
The two horses that didn’t need to win trounced the two that needed points. Ratings here were a bit off. More emotional than anything else.
lol. 50 points will get CW in.
I agree he’s in…just a bit overrated. He had lower odds in the last future pool than Renegade- as did Nearly. Both made little sense. And every pundit and expert had CW over commandment and renegade in their rankings. Like I said, I think he’s a fine colt, just overrated.
Nearly is overrated. CW has run approximately three times.
Would you agree that having CW rated above Commandment and Renegade prior to yesterday was a stretch? I understand you’re emotionally attached to CW and that you’re digging in but CW hasn’t shown that he is better than either. Also, how do you run “approximately” 3 races?
He’s ran three times. Would you agree Nearly is overrated?
Looks like Nearly was ‘overrated’, as I predicted here.
Paladin and Canaletto both off the Triple Crown trail.
Canaletto possibly back in the Fall. Paladin more serious with an ankle injury and screws needing to be put in.
Paladin was one of my favorites to win.
Hopefully he will be OK.
Horrible, and so unexpected. Thanks for posting, Tommy McD.
Not a given but probably will be retired.
Condylar fracture. At Rood and Riddle.
Not good news, but thanks for the update, Linda.
I like Renegade and Commandment, and I wish them well today.
I notice that FanDuel no longer offers the $500 “No-Sweat Bet” to new users. They are now offering $50 in wagering credit when you bet $10. Which would be one of the lowest sign-up offers, if not the cheapest sign-up bonus.
The unsurmountable Magnitude of American Speed! …
Magnitude was terrific today. Sure, that main track at Meydan plays to speed. But Magnitude beat a very good horse who was stalking him all the way.
Maybe the two of them will meet up again in the Breeders Cup Classic.
That match on October 31 at Keeneland would be really great TommyMcD… However it was reported after the Saudi Cup that Forever Young would not contest the Breeder’s Cup this year and would give his farewell in Japan instead.
Forever Young has done so much so far that I am starting to believe he needs to take it easier from now on… it has been four years performing at the highest levels and at some point he will be slowing down… at any rate, the son of Real Steel is by far the greatest dirt runner in the racing history of Japan.
Thanks to Forever Young the Japanese will be aiming at the American Triple Crown more intently … and that will enrich the series for sure.
Well said
Stand corrected! Thought FY would prevail.
The Florida Derby is down to just 7 horses. Still waiting for Oaklawn.
I have to go with Commandment today. “The Chief” is now on the rail. Not sure that it matters much in a 7 horse field.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Nearly or “The Chief” wins though.
Down to 6 horses now.
Thanks for the update Tommy.
The Florida Derby will be a very tactical race; with 3 frontrunners and 3 stalkers handicapping should anticipate how Johny V, Pratt, Castellano, and Alvarado read the pace and how they feel an effective final prep should be to peak on D day.
Danon Bourbon (2/1-favorite) wins the Fukuryu Stakes by 3.5 easy lengths in an excellent time of 1:50 4/5 for the 1,800 meters. Don Erectus (8.8 to 1) finished second, with Charlie (3.1 to 1) in third.
Danon Bourbon is undefeated in 3 starts always winning very easily with a lot in reserve.
The son of Maxfield and maternal granson of Tapit got 40 qualifying points for the Kentucky Derby. Don Erectus with his second today also has 40 points. I am not sure if both leading horses would be invited to the Kentucky Derby. In 6 hours another Japanese in Pyromancer could be a third representative in the Derby for the Land of the Rising Sun…
Nelson:
Thanks for update!
Nelson, the Japan Road offers only one invitation. The Mideast/Euro road offers invites to the first two point leaders. In the Japan road, Danon Bourbon and Don Erectus are tied, and DE has the tiebreaker for lifetime earnings. Apparently, CD believes that DE’s connections won’t be supplementing the colt to the Derby.
Thanks for the clarification Mike… it would be great if Danon Bourbon could run in the Derby as he has proven to be the best against a nice field today. His final time was two full seconds faster than the Standard on that muddy track …
The other Japanese winner of the UAE Derby, Wonder Dean, is nominated to the Triple Crown; but Danon Bourbon looks to me to be the better runner.
Wonder Dean certainly has the pedigree!
Thoughts on WAYNE’S LAW in the Florida Derby? I’m just learning to handicap, but I like that this should be another pacesetting rail ride for him and on a speed favoring track; finished in front of The Puma by 2+L in the Sam Davis; 2-3 at Gulfstream… But, do we think he’ll fade down the stretch? Would luv his Thoros if someone cares to share. Thanks.
WL’s is a longshot to watch.
The Puma had a bad trip in the SfD and he was a bit green. Some dont think he had a bad trip but I certainly do.
I feel a little bit better about WL’s chances now that the field is down to 6. Albus & Gregarious SCR. Redland to the Arkansas.
As a young man sharing an apartment, in Oregon with my brother…I supported my half of the rent by buying things at the farm auction, then selling it over the weekend …in the back they auctioned broken down race horses, unable to run any ore….
I knew a family that owned an orchard, they supplied the broken down horses with broken down apples, and I cut them up and fed those happy critters every Wednesday—they were at their days end, I tried to give them one last happy time—I succeeded! Those horses loved the apples they perked right up!
While living there, did you happen to attend Portland Meadows? I’d always look for it when taking off or landing at PDX.
I like that story. Sometimes we can’t do everything we’d like to do solve a problem, but we can provide some comfort along the way. I can understand how providing those horses some pleasure when their futures were bleak has stayed with you for a lifetimel
Absolutely!
LOL. I just went back and watched Commandment’s gallop out after the FOY. Boy he did take off again.
Sure! And it was only CW 2nd race.
hey I’ve been team CW since his 1st race. was rooting for him in the FOY and rooting for him in the FL Derby.
Ditto!
There is a story on both DRF and HRN that FanDuel will be phasing out their TV coverage. It’s a bit confusing. But whatever is going on doesn’t sound good.
Cannoneer, the $1.75 million dollar colt, that looked very impressive in his maiden win early on, is entered in the 7th race today at GP. Currently, he’s 1/5.
Cannoneer wired the field, going a mile in 1:36.23, drawing off by 9 1/4 lengths.
It will be interesting to see where Brad Cox will point this Into Mischief colt for his next start. Could we see him in the Preakness? Maybe.
Cannoneer ran the second quarter in a staggering 22.08 and his final time was on par to Commandment’s time in the FoY…
Another salient point is that the 3rd and 4th horses were left 28 and 34 lengths behind.
Cannoneer answered why he was the odds-on favorite in the Holy Bull Stakes against Nearly.
Oh Boy… Seems like they will have a tough time trying to catch Nearly and Johnny V tomorrow in the Florida Derby.
Note aside: Cannoneer’s dam Catch the Moon must be one of the best broodmares in America.
My opinion is Nearly will disappoint.
Thanks for the reply, Nelson
Per Brad Cox, Cannoneer will point to the Woody Stephens, on the Belmont Stakes undercard, at Saratoga, on June 6th. It appears Cannoneer has finally put it all together and could show up in some major races during the summer and fall.
I gotta think Litmus Test and Blackout Time will run improved races, but will it be enough to beat Renegade, and Todd, “King of the Preps”?..
Starting next year will the Wood still be on Dirt? What about the Remsen? Will they race on all 3 surfaces in the spring and fall? If it rains they wouldnt move the Wood to the synthetic would they?
Nope
Desert Gate won the Hot Springs Stakes at Oaklawn by 9 3/4 lengths in an excellent time of 1:37.03 for the two-turn mile.
Last year Steve Asmussen won the Hot Springs with Clever Again defeating Baffert’s Gaming by 4 lengths in 1:37.13. Today it was Baffert defeating Asmussen’s Soldier N Diplomat.
Considering that Soldier N Diplomat was 3rd only 2 lengths behind Further Ado (in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes) , and a runner-up to Silent Tactic in the Southwest Stakes (both ranked in the top 10) then Desert Gate’s performance today was really outstanding.
The field was reduced to only four horses after the scratch of Licoln’s Law (7/2), Strategic Risk (20/1) and Bricklin(9/2)… but still the way Desert Gate handled the 950K-purchase, Soldier N Diplomat, was encouraging.
I always felt that Desert Gate would be apt to the Classic distance just because his dam, Theogony by Curlin, was an excellent stayer whose last won was a romp in the 12 furlongs of the Rags to Riches Invitational Stakes at Belmont Park. However, it seems Desert Gate runs best when able to dictate the pace; and looks to be an excellent miler so far.
Anyway, It is very likely the son of Omaha Beach will be entered in the Preakness Stakes at Laurel.
An interesting stats is that it would be Baffert’s debut at Laurel Park.
The speed bias there for two turn races is similar or higher than that of Pimlico. That could help California speed (i.e. Pavlovian, Desert Gate, Robusta, So Happy, Litmus Test, Intrepido) specially if the eventual Derby winner bypasses the second leg of the Triple Crown…
Ray Paulick had an interesting guest, who predicts the likely “best distance”, for the Derby points leaders….
The two I like most….Potente got a good rating, 10 furlongs being his best distance….but Nearly only got an 8 1/2 fur rating….
The LA Derby winner scored highest, Blackout Time also scored well, Paladin scored well…Commandment did not—he sure looked good but he only got an 8 1/2 fur rating…
His outlier…the horse that surprised him the most, is Pavlonian, who turned back everyone, running fast splits and almost winning…..hrle rates him 9 1/2 furlongs …
Interesting information Mathew… it looks to me like the precision of ratings of 10, 9.5 and 8.5 furlongs comes from a mathematical formula or it could be more subjective as well.
It should be assumed that the person takes pedigree and late pace for the estimates. For instance, Pavlovian got 9.5 furlong-rating just because he did very well at that distance. But, Potente’s San Felipe was not faster than Commandment’s FoY at the distance of 8.5 furlong. So, Commandment is better at 8.5 but not at 10 furlongs…
Perhaps the fact that Potente’s dam sire, Awesome Again, won four important 10-furlong Stakes gives him better mark than Commandment at precisely 10 furlongs. Just assuming here…
Also I don’t see Blackout Time better suited for long distances than Renegade or even Golden Tempo.
Anyway, the rating by furlongs looks to be innovative but not the most convincing to me.
Blackout Time’s dam and his dam’s dam both had unbelievable stamina. You talk about a horse bred for distance.
Yes Digger, you are rigth… Beauty Parlor, Moon Queen and also his 3rd dam Infamy are all 10 and 12 furlong Stakes runners on turf.
I should have said that from what I have seen at the track Golden Tempo and Renegade (with the American dirt stamina influence of Curlin) look better suited to the Classic distances.
However it is too early to make a definitive assessment and Blackout Time might end up being a great stayer on turf… who knows.
or on dirt as well like the last big marathoner also by Not this Time, Next …
I think it was Blackout Time who I had that thought earlier this week about possibly being a marathon dirt horse if things dont work out in getting to or running in the classics. But maybe it was another horse, I look at so many pedigrees in the winter. I know his female side was turf, hope he can be a dirt horse. I only watch dirt racing outside a few turfway 3 year old races.
I don’t have the list in front of me, but I believe he had Blackout ‘s best distance at 12 furlongs….he made a funny, regarding (I think) the LA Derby winner’s optimum distance at….19 miles!..
Greetings. I’m also a fan of Pavlovian! Just a casual fan, not one with the COOL
backstory like you and your family! Could you enlighten me with his Thoro-Graph
pattern? Would love to see him light up the board on May 2!
21….15 1/2 ..12 1/2….15 3/4…12 1/2…17…9 1/2…8…3 3/4
Quick tangent…sorry. Does anyone know the status of Representing? Curlin/Beholder. $4MM. Seemed to be working regularly and just stopped in late December.
Email Zedan Racing Stables. Maybe they can forward info on Representing.
Hey Chief! Good seeing you here.
emerging market caught my eye too, pedigree wise, always a fan of the Fappiano line and not because I’m from florida “wink wink”
So am I.
Awesome Steve !
Saw you guys hanging out with Tiznow, age 29 and still big and muscled! Midway thru that 2001 Classic stretch, on a dark cloudy day in Oregon I watched what looked like another middle eastern owned horse winning another Breeders Cup race, a few weeks after 9/11…..and that horse…..that horse said “nah”….—thanks, for that picture!
Obviously Gun Runner is 1 of the best Stallions in the world and he is a stud you always love to see in a pedigree. Does anyone have any of his results of his broodmare sons and daughters? I’ve been a big fan of Silent Tactic since studying for the Smarty Jones. Gun Runner is his broodmare sire.
I’ve been waiting to see the horse who beat Silent Tactic in the Grey Stakes race again in The Big Con (GB) but after 6 straight works he hasnt worked since March 7.
From BloodHorse. 57 dams. 39 named foals of racing age. 4 runners. 2 winners. Silent Tactic being the lone stakes winner.
Thank you sir. Excited to see GR as a broodmare sire for decades to come.
I’ve never seen this before. Aragona and Beer picked the top 4 exactly the same in their drf FL Derby preview video..
6,4,2,8.
I know Collmus has Commandment.
Hi Steve and all,
Actually like this list though a lot of work for Steve.
Somewhat envious of those of you who have a list of the top ten or twelve.
I struggle sometimes to list 5!
Good luck and safe racing for Dubai World Cup.
From what I read Forever Young drew gate 6.
He is looking as sharp and conditioned as I have ever seen him and relaxed.
Good luck everyone on your bets this weekend.
Safe racing all!
Still staying with Nearly, Chief Wallabee, Paladin, The Puma, Incredibolt.
Hi Lynda.
It was reported that Forever Young is in better form than he was for the Saudi Cup (as expected). On top of that he is facing one of the weakest Dubai World Cup fields in its history.
Brad Cox and Florent Geroux are looking to win back to back with Hit Show but this time Forever Young and Magnitude will be too strong for the gray.
Enjoy this very exciting weekend of racing…Including the Fukuryu at Kyoto. Danon Bourbon and/or Charlie might be something special. Anyone would be great addition to the Kentucky Derby indeed.
Regarding our top five Derby contenders I got Paladin, Commandment, Renegade, Silent Tactic, and The Puma.
Hi Nelson,
I think Hit Show drew gate 1.
Read too that FY will finish racing career in Japan and not be back for BCC. Of course plans could change.
Agree he is fabulous shape. Will miss him for sure.
Silent Tactic certainly looks promising. Orb is his damsire, not seen Orb in a pedigree before.
Think he is out of country now, not sure where.
Should be exciting racing this weekend!
The official declarations (UAE racing authority) shows Hit Show starting from gate 5. Magnitude drew post position one and Forever Young, as you said, starts from pp 6.
Silent Tactic’s damsire is Gun Runner. You are refering to Orb as the broodmare sire of Commandment. I like Deputy Minister as well as the sire of Commandment’s second dam…
Orb is in Uruguay since 2021. He is at Haras Cuatro Piedras alongside with Invasor, as their star sires. The same farm had at some points the services of Real Quiet and Smarty Jones.
FY all the way!!!
Forever Young by five, Forever Young by eight … and the champion of the world is gone .. The richest horse in history is giving a roaring Sayonara to this field!
I wish i was inclined to say something stupid so the new sniper could dazzle us with his cleverness.
‘New sniper’?
Just having some fun. Not you, Mike.
No problem.
Come on Todd…dazzle us. Be direct…not wishy washy.
I got a good laugh out of your comment that Irad reads this column religiously and chooses his Derby mounts based on the rankings. At first I was displeased with his choice for Saturday because I love Commandment but after thinking it over, I don’t think it’s going to make much difference in the big picture. I believe Chad Brown will keep Prat on Paladin if he chooses to ride him, and I think he will. If that happens, Commandment will be available again for Irad to choose or reject. So the rider will be right back where he started from with the same three choices (four if you want to include Fulleffort) and a lot more information from Saturday’s races to guide his final choice. He also will have a better chance of getting a Grade 1 victory this weekend because, while it’s by no means a slam-dunk, the Arkansas field is not nearly as strong as the Florida one. So for Saturday, Irad may be making a wise choice. For the Derby, we’ll have to wait and see.
Steve or anyone…have you watched the head on in the stretch of the Louisiana? Ortiz’s (who I like immensely) contention that the leaders were bearing out does not hold water. They did bear out – well after GT ducked inside- but wouldn’t it have been easier to hold your path or even force the leaders to push you a bit more into the center of the track instead of moving 6-7 paths inside. It remains an inexplicable move made by a terrific jockey. I wish I could post the video or even a screen shot showing just how far the leaders were to the inside of GT before Ortiz shifted inside. There’s no question it cost GT the race.
And, just for the record, I think I’ve questioned a jockey’s decision less times than the fingers on my right hand. It doesn’t behoove anyone to question 50/50 moves or simply question these great athletes in what happens in a split second…but this is different. Much different. What was described actually didn’t occur. Just strange.
Until Cherokee Nation wins a prep, he should be behind horses that have. It’s not like he won at first asking and blew everyone’s doors off.
Most likely not hitting the board on Derby day.
Some great comments going on. Thanks all. For my own reference I brought up the PDF result of Gin’s derby. 14 horse field. Never going to have only 14 entrants again. Unfortunately, Holy Bull broke slow. Those who’ve been mentioning the jockey carousel, Eddie D rode Irgun against Strodes Creek at SA then he picked up the mount for the Derby over Corey Black.
Corey Black … wow: haven’t heard that name for years.
The crazy thing about the race that Danon Bourbon runs in on Saturday is he shows as the second choice in the race to his competitor named Charlie. Charlie is a Japanese bred horse sired by the great Japanese racehorse Chrysoberyl. Maybe the odds maker is partial to Japanese bred horses, I just don’t know. The thing is I don’t have any information on Charlie’s past performances. Charlie looks to be bred to handle a classic distance and if he is good enough to beat Danon Bourbon, he must be a very good horse that would surely be an interesting addition to the Kentucky Derby field.
He has a record of 6(2-0-1). He had four starts last year with a maiden win, in his second start. This year a start in Jan at 1800 meters, ran third. In most recent start, finished first in an allowance at 1800 meters. Don Erectus is another threat; however, he just won two weeks ago. What? A two-week turnaround? That’s crazy talk.
Blackout Time’s WH futures odds finally lowered: now 35-1; was 60-1 earlier today.
I think he will run a big race Saturday. Hoping he finishes 1st or 2nd; he is worth $8,200, and would be great to have a chance in the Derby
Is worth $8,200 in futures
Per trainer Patrick Biancone, Redland Rebel’s will scratch out of the Florida Derby and run in the Arkansas Derby instead. This will narrow the Florida Derby field to eight horses, with the Big Three (Chief Wallabee, Commandment and Nearly), fighting it out for the win. I’m not convinced that The Puma is in the same league as the afore mentioned Big Three. However, I expect The Puma to hit the board and round out the superfecta. The longshot that I’ll use in my Hi-5 wager will be Albus, by hot sire Yaupon, out of a Bernardini mare.
Super Hi-5: 2,4,6/ 2,4,6/ 2,4,6/ 1,8/ 1,8. Cost: $12.00
Superfecta: 4,6/4,6/ 1,2,7,8/ 1,2,7,8
Superfecta: 1,2,7,8/4,6/4,6/ 1,2,7,8
In the Arkansas Derby, I’ll wheel Renegade and Silent Tactic, on top, with several combinations of Blackout time, Taptastic, Litmus Test and Redland Rebels underneath.
Good luck to everyone.
Hey Bill:
Another horse worth looking at for bomb in the Fla. Derby is Wayne’s Law, a minor stakes winner and the runner up in the Sam Davis. He has been prepping specifically for the race. He might be a better value, chance wise, than Albus, who has shown very little in three starts. Best of luck (which you have more of than me)!
Thanks for the reply, Ms Blacktype
Upon further review, I’ll add Wayne’s Law to my superfecta wagers, which will kick each ticket up to $40.00 dollars, no big deal.
Thanks for the input Ms Blacktype.
I like your Superfecta Bill.
My Hi-5 got Commandment on top. I feel like Flavien Prat will strive to win so he can keep the son of Into Mischief for the Derby… my assumption is that Paladin will remain with Gaffalione :
4/2,6,8/2,6,8/1,3,7,8/1,3,7 ($30)
BTW regarding The Puma, his debut hints he is in the same league as Chief Wallabee. The Puma had to be rushed early to attend the pace after a slow brake and he paid the price when Chief Wallabee passed him rather easily in the last furlong.
Knowing how Gustavo Delgado takes preps to peak route (paraphrasing Steve) I feel The Puma will be running without any pressure whatsoever. However, sometimes in sports playing for fun yields better results than expected…
Anyway, if Commandment overcomes the awesome power of Chief Wallabee and Nearly he will be the new Derby favorite.
We shall see.
Thanks for the reply, Nelson
I’ve been on the Commandment bandwagon since his maiden win back in November. His Equibase and brisnet speed figures have increased with every race.
Equibase: 76, 80,93,99
brisnet: 84,86, 96,103
In addition, his pedigree is top notch. By Into Mischief, out of Sippican Harbor (G1 winner), by Orr, (KD winner). So, you could say, he’s got it all, (speed, class and stamina). That said, he barely beat Chief Wallabee in the FOY, and Nearly is well rested after his Holy Bull win. Their respective connections are top notch as well.
Chief Wallabee is a Mike and Katherine Ball homebred colt, so you would think he should get an extra check mark for that. I’m sure you’re well aware of past Derby winners that were homebred. So, from my perspective, it’s very hard to separate those three as to which one is clearly the best. The oddsmaker at GP will have a tough time in selecting the opening line favorite.
EDIT: By Into Mischief, out of Sippican Harbor, by Orb.
Nelson, CW is the most likely winner Saturday.
Whatever the outcome, Nelson I’m confident CW will exit Saturday with enough points to get into starting gate.
I agree Mike. Chief Wallabee gets 40 points with a fourth place.
However, Bill Mott may not take the Chief to the Derby with less than a resounding win…
At any rate, the Florida Derby will be a treat and no matter who wins it the fantastic four will be making a lot of headlines this season.
I’m guessing with a strong 2nd he’s a go. Although, expecting him to prevail.
Short fields make sit easier for you to include all the numbers
Steve very nice to the point while abbreviated assessment this weeks column. I absolutely loved your comment on Ortiz opting for Renegade the boys know What’s Under the Hood so to speak but do they ? maybe not always. As for Prat getting the pickup ride on Commandment he will be the rider for the Derby going forward if runs well on Saturday. Flavien had the mount on Palladin but went off to Saudi Arabia & did not ride him the weekend of when Tyler Gaffalione picked up that ride. Maybe Chad Brown calls an audible & puts Flavien back in the saddle of Palladin but doubt it these things usually have a way of working themselves out. History shows Jockeys & agents don’t always make the right call when it gets time to choose their best options to win the Ky Derby. In 1990 Pat Day gave up the mount on Unbridled to ride Summer Squall & lost out on a Derby winner. In 1994 I thought Go For Gin was going to win the Ky Derby had him in all kinds of Winter Book Futures in Vegas taking a stand against Holy Bull who everyone thought to be a super horse but his Dosage Index was a 5.0 & not worthy of his price. Jerry Bailey rode the heavily favorited 4-5 Go For Gin in the Wood Memorial while Gary Stevens flew in from California to ride Irgun & won the Wood & Go For Gin finished a close up 2nd place. Jockey version of musical chairs then ensued Gary Stevens tossed Irgun to the heap to keep his ride on Brocco back in California which opened up the ride on Irgun. Jerry Bailey then jumped at the chance to ride Irgun kicking Go For Gin to the curb. Nick Zito now needed a jockey & offered the mount to Hall of Fame rider Chris McCarron who available seized the opportunity. Irgun shortly after then comes up with an abscess foot injury was out of the running for Run the Roses for Bailey. Post Position were drawn & I couldn’t believe my eyes when saw Go For Gin listed at unheard of odds 30-1 which wagered $50 WPS on Oaks Day card the day before. Of course he was bet down by smart money to 9-1 but always remembered Charlie Whittingham saying he would never take a horse to the Ky Derby if he couldn’t win the race, They didn’t have Pick 3’s & Pick 4’s all the exotic’s wagers they have now back then so added $10 exacta Box Go For Gin/ Strodes Creek just in case Charlie the Bald Eagle won another Derby I didn’t listen to him on Sunday Silence victory. Gate open 1 1/4 miles later Go For Gin goes wire to wire wins the Derby for Zito/McCarron duo Charlie true to his word loped up for 2nd with long shot Strodes Creek for a $184.00 exacta for $2 to complete my $10 Box while cashing my across the board wagers too. I made more on these wagers than all of my Vegas Futures but it was a good day. Sometimes you have to go with your gut feelings when watching the jockey carousel go around they don’t always know when & where to jump off or when it’s going to stop either….. Holy Bull went off big favorite but did run a clunker in the Derby dosage of 5 or no dosage factor some believe some don’t finishing 13th but he showed was a Super Horse never losing another race till his last due to injury not finishing the race. You tend to remember things like these when you get paid. Good luck to everyone following the trail this winter were almost to the Finish Line hope we all get paid & thanks Steve for another fantastic read week after week top notch.
Steve, You have a way, with making a case for every ranked horse, no matter where you rank him, a skill most writers lack—is your forte!
Commandment picked up Prat, who currently leads in money earned, and that’s not counting the $4.5 million he earned in Saudi Arabia, he’ll have a decision to make, for his Derby mount.. and he’s not very good at that, having chosen Galilean over Omaha Beach, who was going to be the Derby Favorite….Irad chose Renegade, I don’t think it’s loyalty, The Derby Trump’s loyalty! Irad likes Renegade, and should he not progress into the Derby—the Commandment mount is still his, and if not….Fulleffort looked pretty solid!..
IMO Prat best option is Commandment running well think he lost Palladin can’t see Chad Brown kicking Tyler off after winning last race on him while in Saudi Arabia. If Renegade does not fire Pletcher is not giving Ortiz the mount on Commandment. Not sold that Fulleffort runs he may be pointed to Preakness those connections tend to think that way & have other runners on trail too. He does look like talent tho but has not run on dirt yet ? Good Luck
I cannot “see” Prat not retaining the ride on Paladin… he’s Chad’s first call….
If Renegade does not fire….why wouldn’t Irad get the mount on Commandment, if Prat rides Paladin?
That would be a possibility but Chad is not going to boot Tyler Gaffalione off Palladin if he runs 1st or 2nd in Bluegrass. Irad Flavien & Tyler all ride for Chad & Cox they are always mix & match ship in ship out riders on call.
Jerry—I don’t think Tyler will be on Paladin, for The Bluegrass, he got the mount for the Fairgrounds prep, Prat will be on him, in Kentucky—He had a $20 million dollar race, I’m sure they worked it out in advance, nobody is “getting the boot”….
I think Nearly will prove her what I think he is …it’s a good Florida Derby! Also…Potente doesn’t have to beat Cherokee Nation, next week—I want him to finish, he is IN—now he needs to peak, in 5 1/2 weeks!..
Secured Freedom will miss the SA Derby per Tim Yakteen. He came down with a tempature last weekend.
Yup he’s out
Oh, darn!
I will bet on Nearly getting the Always Dreaming trip in the Florida Derby. JV + Pletcher are lethal in Florida Derby.
Steve – Great analysis of the top 25. I like that you highlight the strengths of these colts and the reasons that makes all of them contenders in the KY Derby. I’m eager to watch the Bluegrass as my 2 KDFW horses are Paladin and Class President. I Would love to see these 2 run 1-2 in the Bluegrass, which should set both of them up beautifully for the KY Derby. Both colts are tactical which should serve them well in a 20 horse KY Derby field.
Great as usual Steve, Emerging Market may have the most appropriate name. Taptastic in the Arkansas Derby could end up in the same lightly raced boat with a top finish. His maiden race was pretty good. Around the turn and down the stretch looked like a hand ride, not even a vigorous one. Thanks Steve!
I feel like the Florida Derby sets up perfectly for Nearly and Johnny V. Don’t get me wrong. I still like Commandment and “The Chief”. But this Saturday could be Nearly’s day.
I think that Emerging Market would be better off going the Peter Pan and Belmont route.
Looking forward to seeing how Litmus Test does at Oaklawn on Saturday. I don’t remember seeing BB use Francisco Arrieta before. But Arrieta could be the perfect rider for this horse on that track. Could be a decent price.
You covered every horse that still has a shot at making the Derby, AND you made a case for why each of them has a shot to win the Derby. Magical writing, Steve. This is a column I’ll want to read again.
Just did my second read through and stopped to take a closer look at Emerging Market’s pedigree. It’s loaded with great Florida bloodlines: two crosses of Dr F (through Killaloe), three crosses of In Reality (one through Charedi, whose dam is Aspidistra), plus two crosses of Buckpasser through Con Game and Sex Appeal. It’s also a bit terrifying that there is so much Mr P — four in the first seven generations. Hope Emerging Market stays sound.
Great job, Steve – thank you!
Reagan looks like the real deal, but of course even if he runs big, he may not get into the Derby. I don’t think that would be the worst thing in the world, but it would be fun if he gets in
I wonder who will ride him in the BG as Ortiz may (or may not) stick with GT
My guess is that he will run from just off the pace unless no one wants the lead