2026 Kentucky Derby Rankings – Week 11
Well, we have one more weekend to go and all the preps other than the Lexington Stakes will be in the book, and then comes the waiting and hoping, all the while with thoughts of Paladin in everyone’s head. This was a productive weekend with formful stakes and top-class performances. We have ranked 20 horses with some of the comments longer than others, depending on how much there is to say on each horse. ~ Steve Haskin
Derby Rankings: March 30, 2026 – Week 11
By Steve Haskin
1. Renegade (Todd Pletcher, Into Mischief — Spice is Nice, by Curlin)
You hate to keep taking down No. 1 and replacing them with No. 2, especially because of injury, but you sure can’t say that Renegade didn’t earn the No. 1 spot and wouldn’t have taken it away from Paladin anyway after that bravura performance in the Arkansas Derby. Finally, after 11 weeks on the Derby trail, we saw a horse put on a show worthy of proclaiming him the definitive Kentucky Derby favorite. This was a race you can look at visually or statistically and come up with the same “Wow” reaction. You don’t often see horses stay within four lengths of the lead and rattle off fractions of :24, :24 2/5, :24 3/5. :24 2/5, circle the field, and then blow by a top-class closer in the stretch with an :11 4/5 final eighth to win going away by four wideneing lengths. From a speed figures standpoint, he needed a big move forward coming off a pair of “5’s” on Thoro-Graph and you can be sure he made that move. We won’t know the number for several days, but let’s hope he’s left himself room to keep moving forward in the Derby. It certainly looked by the effortless way he did it that there is plenty left in the tank. Keeping him out for seven weeks after his powerful Sam F. Davis victory proved to be a smart move by Pletcher, as he now has the proverbial express train roaring towards Louisville.
2. The Puma (Gustavo Delgado, Essential Quality — Eve of War, by Declaration of War)
Talk about following a winning formula. Picture a lightly raced horse making his final start before the Kentucky Derby in the Florida Derby and circling the field with a big four-wide run on the turn to challenge for the lead turning for home, take the lead inside the eighth pole, and just get nipped in the final stride. Now, was I describing The Puma’s Florida Derby or his trainer’s other big 3-year-old Mage’s Florida Derby? We all saw what Mage did five weeks later at Churchill Downs coming off an identical race, and can anyone not feel the same could happen this year? The Puma is more experienced than Mage and has faced bad starts, premature moves, traffic problems, and very wide trips, yet just keeps getting better and more professional with every race. And after squeezing all that into a narrow time frame he went into the Florida Derby only three weeks later after a tough race against top-class horses. Now he gets five weeks to regroup and freshen up for the big one. I have to admit, I thought he had gotten his nose down to win the Florida Derby, and would be very surprised if he doesn’t get a faster Thoro-Graph number than Commandment. He actually had to do all the dirty work, racing four or five-wide every step of the way, putting away two brilliant colts in Nearly and Chief Wallabee, and never seeing Commandment charging up on the outside. I originally had Commandment at No. 2 and actually switched while writing this.
3. Commandment (Brad Cox, Into Mischief — Sippican Harbor, by Orb)
All year we have had love affairs with the exciting and vibrant new stars who instantly command the stage with their looks and talent. But as so often happens, in the end it is the “lunch pail” performer, who goes out and does his job every time and delivers with mainly hard work and diligence. It is these blue-collar stars that often define what a true Thoroughbred is, and that is Commandment. All he does is come out race after race and win, with the margin of victory and final time inconsequential. He can run off from inferior opponents, as he did in his maiden and Mucho Macho Man victories, or he can use his grit and will to win to scrape out a victory by the slimmest of margins against top-class foes, as he did in the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby. The bottom line is that he has won four straight races, three of them stakes, with his speed figures increasing with every start. Yes, the fractions of the Florida Derby were slow, but so was the track, and he still was able to come from last in the bunched up field and catch two exceptional colts in The Puma and Chief Wallabee with a super final three-eighths in :36 2/5 (:24 1/5 and :12 1/5) to just stick his nose in front at the wire. He’s not going to dazzle you, but don’t ever count him out no matter where he is in the stretch — inside, outside, or bulling his way through horses.
4. Further Ado (Brad Cox, Gun Runner — Sky Dreamer, by Sky Mesa)
We need to look ahead to the Paladin-less Blue Grass Stakes. Why do I keep feeling that no one is paying as much attention to this colt as they should be? The Tampa Bay Derby form sure held up after the Florida Derby, where he was able to finish a game second to The Puma coming off a 3 1/2-month layoff. He also will be coming of a “5” pairing on Thoro-Graph, as was Renegade in the Arkansas Derby, and has that monster 20-length maiden romp and a sensational “negative-1” Thoro-Graph number to now target. We already know he can run that fast. Where does that speed come from? He is the only horse in memory who has the three fastest Kentucky Derby winners in history in his pedigree — Secretariat (three times 1:59 2/5), Monarchos (1:59 4/5), and Northern Dancer (2:00). He also has the world record holder for a mile Dr. Fager four times; of course the fastest Preakness and Belmont winner in history in Secretariat, as well as the fastest Flamingo (Honest Pleasure) winner in history. And at one point he had the fastest ever Travers, Haskell Invitational, Santa Anita Handicap, Pacific Classic, Suburban Handicap, and Champagne winner. Also in his pedigree is the only horse in history (Affirmed) to run under 1:59 for a 1 1/4 miles twice, as well as the horse who ran the fastest six furlongs ever at Gulfstream Park and Garden State Park (Mr. Prospector) and the horses who at the time ran the fastest ever seven furlongs in New York (Dr. Fager) and the fastest ever seven furlongs (Hoist the Flag) and one mile (Dr. Fager) in New York by a 3-year-old. He even has the horse (Roberto) who broke the 1 1/4-mile course record at York in England. And finally his sire won four 1 1/8-mile Grade 1 stakes in 1:47 3/5 or faster, including the second-fastest Pegasus World Cup ever behind Arrogate. Now he just has to use all that speed in the Blue Grass.
5. Class President (Todd Pletcher, Uncle Mo — Top Quality, by Quality Road)
With Silent Tactic again failing to sustain his drive after a premature move in the Arkansas Derby and with the disappointing efforts in that race by Litmus Test and Blackout Time, his Rebel victory does have a few question marks. But I am going to overlook them because I believe the Class President who ran such a gutsy race to win the Rebel was still a lightly raced improving horse with not a lot of mileage under him who had to drop back to a sprint in his second start. With that two-turn debut under him, it is difficult to think he is not going to improve off that, especially with his tactical speed. He began his career with a strong “6 3/4” Thoro-Graph number, and it was not surprising to see him regress a bit to an “8 3/4” going from a mile to seven furlongs because a longer race failed to fill. But stretching out to two turns against seasoned stakes horses in the Rebel, he jumped to a “3 1/2,” and I can see him moving forward off that rather than regressing. Yes, Silent Tactic might have hung in the Rebel, but there is no doubting the fact that, after pressing a strong pace, Class President had every right to relinquish the lead in the closing yards, but refused to be beaten. Although Silent Tactic was unable to handle Renegade in the Arkansas Derby, he did finish a clear-cut second, so he still is considered a darn good horse.
6. Chief Wallabee (Bill Mott, Constitution — A la Lucie, by Medaglia d’Oro)
He still has to be highly regarded after another hard-fought defeat, again at the hands of Commandment. But he also still has questions to answer. We all know the talent is there, but what I’d like to see from him is a quicker turn of foot and getting a bit more push after turning for home, as he does keep his head a little high and has a tendency to cock it to the right. When he finally straightens it out and get into a rhythm he digs in and runs hard. And he was battling back at the end of the Florida Derby. But against top-class horses he has to show he can win one of these, and now has to do it in a 20-horse Kentucky Derby field off only three career starts, of which I am still not a fan. There is no doubt he is immensely talented and has a bright future, but the big question is can he come off two tough losses and defeat what promises to be a very talented field with several unknown horses who could be any kind. We’ll just have to see how Mott goes about training him leading up to the Derby.
7. Reagan’s Honor (Cherie DeVaux, Honor A. P. — Rutile, by Medaglia d’Oro)
With the Blue Grass coming up and him needing a first or second to assure a spot in the Derby field, I am taking a shot here based on how visually impressive his allowance victory was against older horses. But with a horse as fast as Brant considered a probable starter, he is likely going to have to rate off the pace this time and show enough of a closing kick to outrun classy horses like Further Ado and Class President. I do like the way he is coming up to the race with a series of quick half-mile works. There is also the question, after making a huge Thoro-Graph jump from “10 1/2” to a “3 1/2,” in which direction is he going to go. His ranking is based on whether he responds with a forward move, which I feel he can. If the horse we saw in the allowance win, especially from a mechanics standpoint, is the horse we’re going to see in the Blue Grass, and if he rates well and doesn’t get hooked up in any speed duels, then we could be looking at a serious Derby contender who I believe is capable of winning the Blue Grass or at least finishing second. But as of now, it is all speculation. He has to go out and prove it.
8. Danon Bourbon (Ikezoe Manabu, Maxfield — Wild Ridge by Tapit)
If you want to read all about this new exciting star who just keeps mowing them down in Japan, he is featured in depth in the March 3 Knocking on the Door. In the meantime he is looking more and more like a horse who has all the tools, mainly a high cruising speed, push-button acceleration, and tons of stamina, to give Japan it’s first Derby winner. No one there has been able to get anywhere near him at the finish in three long distance races. This is not your typical Japanese invader. He was bred, born, and raised on the family-owned Blue Heaven Farm outside Versailles, Kentucky. Owner and general manager Adam Corndorf, whose mother and grandfather founded the farm in the 1990’s, had suffered the disappointment of seeing their homebred Tappan Street drop off the Derby trail last year with an injury after beating Sovereignty in the Florida Derby. Who could have imagined they would be back on the Derby trail the following year with a homebred son of Maxfield that they sold as a yearling for $450,000 at Keeneland September. Corndorf was thrilled with the price, but being sold to Japanese interests he didn’t know if he’d ever hear anything about him again. But here he is back with a running machine who just romped in the Fukuryu Stakes for his third straight dominating victory, and this time Corndorf hopes to share all the thrills they missed out on last year with his mom, now 77, and his wife and two children. Just watch this colt’s three races and you will see just what all the excitement is about.
9. Wonder Dean (Daisuke Takayanagi, Dee Majesty — Wonder Sian Prtaw, by Wonder Acute)
Yes, we have another Japanese horse ranked, and for good reason, This colt, like Danon Bourbon, has excellent tactical speed and a pedigree inundated with stamina, perhaps even more than Danon Bourbon. There was absolutely nothing not to like about his UAE Derby victory, in which he chased the UAE 2,000 Guineas winner Six Speed and was relentless in the stretch wearing him down while pulling away from the rest of the field. Wonder Dean came into the race off a fourth in the Saudi Derby, cutting back to a mile, which his pedigree suggests is way too short for him. Although you probably never heard of anyone in his immediate family, his sire is a son of champion Deep Impact, who is by Sunday Silence. In addition to Sunday Silence he has other Kentucky Derby and Preakness winners Charismatic, Pleasant Colony, and Northern Dancer in his pedigree, along with Preakness winners Summer Squall and Master Derby. On the European side, he has Epsom Derby, 2,000 Guineas, and King Geoge VI and Queen Elizabeth winner Nashwan; Breeders’ Cup Turf and Japan Cup winner Pilsudski; Arc de Triomphe, 2,000 Guineas, and King George winner Dancing Brave; and Epsom Derby winner Roberto; and is inbred to classic influence Hail to Reason and has full-brothers Graustark and His Majesty, by Ribot on top and bottom. Watch out America, the Japanese are coming with two loaded weapons.
10. Cherokee Nation (Bob Baffert, Not This Time — Believe in Charlie, by Indian Charlie)
Talk about question marks, this enigmatic horse is capable of doing anything in the Santa Anita Derby, based on that off-the-charts performance last out in a maiden, yes, maiden, race, in which he blew apart his Thoro-Graph numbers by zooming from an “8 3/4,” and five races without a victory, to an insane “negative-1,” making him by far the fastest 3-year-old in the country. He did run a sneaky “7” and 99 Brisnet speed figure in his second career start, in which he was beaten a nose, but has been all over the place since. Ironically, his only two placings since that nose defeat came the only two times he ran with Lasix, which adds even more mystery surrounding this colt. Baffert, of course, feels coming off Lasix in the Santa Anita Derby will have no effect on him, and says he finally figured him out, tweaking his training, and called him a “big boy.” I admit I have no idea what any of that means, especially the “figured him out” and “tweaking his training.” All I know is what he did and what I saw on February 27, which is a spectacular horse who looks like a potential overnight sensation. In his five-furlong work in 1:00 4/5 on Friday he was on the inside of his workmate, eased clear in stretch while seemingly in a gallop, and when asked past the wire, quickly put eight lengths between him and the workmate. If he repeats what we’ve seen from him lately, good luck trying to figure out just how high to rank him.
11. Fulleffort (Brad Cox, Liam’s Map — Callmethesqueeze, by Awesome Again)
This horse is one good work at Churchill Downs away from moving up several spots. That is how impressed I was with his Jeff Ruby victory, synthetic or no synthetic. I realize Cox put him on grass initially because he wasn’t taking to the dirt, but that was a long time ago, he has since trained on dirt, and his pedigree is all dirt breeding. But what attracted me most about him was how smooth and efficient his stride is and what a powerful move he has in the stretch. Many have compared him to last year’s Jeff Ruby winner Final Gambit, who also is a gray with a huge stretch kick, and he finished a fast-closing fourth in the Kentucky Derby. But there is a big difference in the two. Final Gambit was a typical plodder who still had a lot of gound to make up at the eighth pole. This colt was never more than six lengths off the pace in the Jeff Ruby, was challenging for the lead turning for home, and was in front at the eighth pole before drawing off to a 2 1/2-length victory. St. Elias Stable, who teamed up with Starlight Racing to buy him as a yearling for $425,000, was high on him from day one, especially with them being particularly fond of Liam’s Map as a sire and loving the physicality of Fulleffort and how well-made and balanced he was. So now we wait for some hint of how he handles the track at Churchill Downs. To me, that is the only missing part of the puzzle.
12. Emerging Market (Chad Brown, Candy Ride — Wild Empress, by Empire Maker)
From strictly an equine viewpoint, this has to be an extraordinarily talented colt to do what he did in his second career start going 1 3/16 miles and improving from a strong “5 1/2” Thoro-Graph number to a “2 1/2.” And he did it showing a lot of fight and tenacity and a powerful move on the far turn. In addition, having both parents come from the Fappiano line makes him an exciting horse with a good deal of versatility in his pedigree. With that said, if he wins the Kentucky Derby off two starts he could forever change the way we look at the race. But that is nothing new and I remember when they said that regarding a horse with four lifetime starts. The only difference is there isn’t much more to go after two. We know the Derby is always going to be the Derby, and if Emerging Market wins I will be happy to recount the history of his bloodlines and the legendary John Nerud who created it, and praise the horse for doing something us oldtimers could never imagine a horse even trying. Taiba attempted it in 2022 after winning the Santa Anita Derby in his second career start and went off at 5-1, but faded badly to finish 12th, almost 18 lengths behind 80-1 Rich Strike. We now return to our regularly scheduled programming.
13. Incredibolt (Riley Mott, Bold d’Oro — Sapphire Spitfire, by Awesome Again)
I was a big fan of this horse when he won the Street Sense Stakes; I was a fan when I ranked him No. 3 in Weeks 1 and 2, and I am a fan now after his big rebound effort in the Virginia Derby. But you have to take into consideration that was a one-turn race, the competition was mediocre at best, and he will be coming into the Derby off a seven-week layoff. With the talent he has shown, he could very well be competitive, but because of his lack of racing this year, the Derby to me looks more like a great prep for the Preakness. He is still training half-miles at Palm Meadows, the latest being in :49 2/5, and I would expect Mott to start picking up his works and stretching them out, perhaps even going to Churchiil Downs a little early. But I realize it’s tough leaving Florida, so we’ll see what kind of schedule he puts him on. I have no doubt this colt will keep improving, but he will have to improve a great deal in the Derby.
14. Potente (Bob Baffert, Into Mischief — Sweet Sting, by Awesome Again)
I am seeing him as a big bet-down horse, as his fan base continues to grow. He is not your typical Bob Baffert undefeated hotshot. He runs more like a seasoned veteran who knows what it’s all about. He is after all a $2.4 million yearling purchase, so he had all the attributes buyers look for. He no doubt is capable of winning the Santa Anita Derby in what looks to be a relatively small field with the main contenders all having early speed, either on or just off the pace. So he could very well get the pace setup he wants, as long they remain competitive throughout without any one of them breaking loose on a clear lead. What we don’t know is how good Robusta, the inconsistent horse he ran down by a head in the San Felipe Stakes, really is. Normally a young inexperienced horse who has done what Potente has done would be ranked higher, but he is another who will go into the Kentucky Derby with only three career starts, he hasn’t dominated his competition, and we really have no idea what he’s been running against. It is obvious to say the Santa Anita Derby will help define who he is. He has come along late for Baffert, but he’s caught up pretty quickly.
15. Silent Tactic (Mark Casse, Tacitus — Magical Sign, by Gun Runner)
I certainly am not giving up on him as a legitimate Derby horse based on his last two defeats, but as a potential winner you have to have some doubts, especially with the way he’s lost those races. Now if you want to try to convince me he can place in the Derby you won’t get any arguments. From strictly his stretch runs in the Rebel and Arkansas Derby, you see a horse who lost one race he should have won and was made to look non-competitive when Renegade just blew right past him in the latter race. What did those races have in common that was different from his previous two races, including an impressive victory in the Southwest Stakes? Simple, based on how he won the Southwest, you have to think he moved way too soon in the last two and just didn’t have his normal finishing kick. A horse like Silent Tactic should not be challenging for the lead turning for home. I don’t blame his jockey. It could be that he was a bit overconfident the horse could handle it in the Rebel and still have enough firepower in the final furlong. And it could be that he was trying to get the jump on Renegade in the Arkansas Derby, e not realizing just how strong a closer Renegade was. Another possibility is that by running in his fourth stakes at the meet, he might be tailing off a bit. His Thoro-Graph pattern doesn’t support that, so for now, I am looking for him to go back to his old running style of coming late with one big run, and that could get him at least a piece of it.
16. Intrepido (Jeff Mullins, Maximus Mischief — Overly Indulgent, by Pleasantly Perfect)
He is just another item in the Santa Anita Derby grab bag to pick a worthy representative to send to Churchill Downs. That is unless Cherokee Nation is the freak we saw in his last race. This colt has as much chance of winning as any of them, especially with the way he’s been training. Judging from what we’ve seen from him he is going to be well-placed, probably just off the lead, will be right there turning for home and down the stretch, and if he wins it probably won’t be by much. And because he has not gotten the respect he deserves, due mostly to one off day in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, a victory would be considered by many as an indictment on the California 3-year-olds, that they just keep beating each other, with no one stepping up to take full leadership and establish themselves as a serious threat at Churchill Downs. That could be a mistake, as these 3-year-olds are continuously developing and have proven they love making the experts look bad. Granted, several Baffert horses have shipped East and didn’t impress anyone, but Desert Gate, one of his less respected colts, despite finishing second in two Grade 1 stakes, just went to Oaklawn Park and crushed the hard-knocking Soldier N Diplomat by 9 3/4 lengths in the Hot Springs Stakes. So if Intrepido, or any of the others, should win on Saturday it would be wise to pay attention.
17. Pavlovian (Doug O’Neill, Pavel — Mandy’s Grace, by Bellamy Road)
I have no idea how this Pavlovian got here from where he came from, but I am so thrilled he is in the Kentucky Derby and has now won and placed in a $500,000 race and a $1 million race. This is a colt whose Thoro-Graph numbers started at a lowly “21” and five races later still was at “17.” Add to that, he was competing in Cal-bred races and had the indignity to stumble and lose his rider at the start of the Golden State Juvenile in front of a Breeders’ Cup Day national audience. With only a four-week break from 2 to 3, he closes from ninth to finish third in the Cal Cup Derby at 11-1, improving his Thoro-Graph number to a “9 1/2.” Then it’s off to New Mexico for the $500,000 Sunland Derby and he presses a quick pace the entire way and out-games the even-money favorite Express Kid, coming off a 6 1/4-length romp in the Springboard Mile, to win by a nose. He again improves his Thoro-Graph number to an “8,” which is still mediocre at best and not close to being Kentucky Derby material. He then moves into the big-time, the $1 million Lousiana Derby, and goes off at 21-1. He charges to the lead, sets all the pace, and gets hooked at the top of the stretch by the 2-1 favorite Emerging Market. Instead of folding, he digs in just as he did at Sunland and battles the favorite all the way to the wire, falling just a head short. Now, on another plane, his Thoro-Graph number shoots to a “3 3/4,” putting him in position to be considered at least an outside contender in the Kentucky Derby. So, he will now go into the Derby as the most experienced horse in the field with 10 starts. Hey, I’m just enjoying the ride.
18. Napoleon Solo (Chad Summers, Liam’s Map — Atomic Blonde, by Unbridled’s Song)
Speed from the rail going 1 1/8 miles at Aqueduct; just like my old handicapping days. Can I see him busting to the lead and wiring his field in the Wood Memorial? Sure, especially after drawing the rail and if that rocket we saw launched in the Champagne Stakes returns. Can I see him rating just off the pace and winning? Why not, if he is as naturally talented as he showed in the Champagne? Can I see him tiring as he did in the Fountain of Youth? Yes, only because he did it in his most recent race coming back off a significant injury and you never know how even a sound horse is going to make the transition from 2 to 3. So I find him extremely intriguing, and admit I expected so much more from him in his debut only because I know how gifted he is. I would love to see him return home to New York and put the Wood Memorial back on the Derby map and provide The Big A with a final moment of glory, especially if he, or anyone in the Wood, goes on to glory at Churchill Downs. His trainer is as New York as you can get, so this will be a huge moment for him and the horse. Do I see a Top 10 ranking next week? I sure ain’t gonna say “Fuhgeddaboudit.”
19. Iron Honor (Chad Brown, Nyquist — Orencia, by Blame)
He will have to overcome the 13 post in the Wood Memorial, but he is such a professional he might be able to do it. I saw Foolish Pleasure win the Wood from post 15. I have always looked at him more as a Preakness horse, especially having made only two starts, but with Brown losing his potential Derby favorite in Paladin I wouldn’t be surprised to see him head to Churchill Downs with a Wood Memorial victory or a second from that post. If Chief Wallabee and Potente, who would be just as lightly raced, are considered live Derby horses there is no reason why he can’t be, especially with his pedigree and his professionalism. I only have him ranked this low because there are too many proven horses ahead of him who have already earned their place in the Derby field. He definitely should be the horse to be beat if he doesn’t get hung too wide, and a victory obviously will shoot him way up. His problem has been that he is more of a quiet warrior, who barely beats you in battle and doesn’t show off. He makes you want to say after losing to him, “Give me another crack at him; I know I can beat him next time.” But the result is always going to be the same. If there is a way to beat him it is to sneak up behind him while he is busy taking care of another opponent or just stay as far away from him as possible in the stretch.
20. Golden Tempo (Cherie Devaux, Curlin — Carrumba, by Bernardini)
Let’s not forget that he is a proven strong closer and is still learning, having already experimented with blinkers. He has disappointed a bit in his last two races, and at first I attributed part of his third-place finish in the Louisiana Derby to the dramatic sideways, and seemingly inexplicable move Jose Ortiz made in the final furlong. But as it turned out, Ortiz did that because the horse just wasn’t gaining on the leaders and he thought he would be more competitive on the inside, which is the path he took to win the LeComte Stakes. He still shows up every time and he has proven to be a strong closer; just not as strong you’d want in his last two starts, especially going 1 3/16 miles, which you would think he’d appreciate with his pedigree. Like Silent Tactic, I don’t know if his closing kick going 1 1/4 miles will be strong enough to win, but we have seen horses like them rally for a piece of it in the Derby a number of times.
KNOCKING ON THE DOOR
My apologies to ROBUSTA, GREAT WHITE, TALK TO ME JIMMY, BRANT, BUETANE, BRAVARO, SO HAPPY, and all the others who didn’t quite make the Top 20, but have one more shot this weekend. One horse who doesn’t is NEARLY, and I hated to drop a No. 5 ranked horse off the list, but I still need to evaluate just where he is right now. Perhaps he didn’t like that slow track at Gulfstream and having to set the pace instead of stalking as he’s done so successfully. He could very well return to the Top 20 next week after I look at his race more closely. It’s just that he never really put up much of a fight when challenged and quickly dropped out of contention. Finishing fifth is far from a catastrophe, but that’s not how you want to go into the Kentucky Derby. Maybe he is more of a Pat Day Mile horse. We’ll see what Pletcher says and go from there. He is still a talented horse who has a lot of big wins ahead of him.
If you want to know who the real hero is so far on the Derby trail, it has to be the incomparable INTO MISCHIEF, who not only sired the winners of Saturday’s Florida Derby and Arkansas Derby, he could add the Santa Anita Derby if POTENTE wins. He also is the grandsire of Santa Anita Derby contenders INTREPIDO and ROBUSTA. And don’t forget he had CANNONEER return this past week with a sensational allowance victory. Just imagine if he didn’t lose CANALETTO, who right now would have been my Preakness horse.
Racing historian, author, and award-winning retired journalist for the Daily Racing Form and The Blood-Horse, Steve Haskin was inducted into the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame’s Media Roll of Honor in 2016. Known for his racing knowledge and insightful prose, he has been an exclusive contributor to Secretariat.com since 2020.
Hi Steve
Really great articles appreciate all the effort you put forward to provide us with a good idea of the derby contenders we are. Trying to compare.Steve can you email me the thorograph numbers for silent tactic from 2yo all way through .
My email Robbyrob74@aol.com any help with this is greatly appreciated
5 horses from the top ten points accumalated raced at Tampa Bay Downs.Has to be a first!
Here’s something kind of weird. According to DRF’s entries and the Keeneland website itself, Keeneland will be offering a pick-6 starting in the 5th race on Saturday and another one starting on the 6th race.
I figure that it must be a mistake. I’ve never seen two pick-6s on the same card. Anywhere. Of course, I never heard of an “Octafecta” until recently.
If it is true and Churchill hears about it, they will probably start offering rolling pick-6s beginning on the first race each day.
No offense.
It took only four years for Riley Mott as an independent trainer to have not only one but two Derby entries. His famous father, Bill Mott, had to wait seven years for his first Derby participation and eleven years to have two Derby runners that included Favorite Trick, the third and last two-year-old to earn Horse of the Year honors.
When it comes to the new generations of trainers with “pedigree” Riley Mott has been the fastest in achieving success with two Grade 1, one Grade 2 and One Grade 3 winners so far in his short career.
You would think that Riley Mott is the only “rookie” in this Kentucky Derby but the Japanese trainer of Wonder Dean, Daisuke Takayanagi, has been in the profession for just seven years. He debuted in the 2024 Kentucky Derby with T O Password who finished 6th only 6 lengths behind Mystik Dan at 48/1. It was an excellent performance for T O Password considering he was bumped hard by Forever Young at the break leaving him at the tail end of the field. He passed 12 rivals in the last 4 furlong despite his jockey losing the crop in midstretch. T O Password had won the Fukuryu Stakes wire to wire, so, he had to change his best running style in the Derby. I hope Wonder Dean has better luck in this Derby.
Incredibolt, Albus, and Wonder Dean are the flagbearers of a new generation of trainers. It is the new blood carrying the sport of kings into the future and we wish them the greatest success in their professional journey.
Well said, Nelson. As a lifelong fan of Bill Mott, I’m thrilled to see Riley come into his own after growing up under the tutelage of his dad. The apple has not fallen far from the tree.
I’m hoping we learn more about Daisuke Takayanagi. He exhibits a lot of enthusiasm for the sport as he didn’t hesitate to say that he’s headed straight to Louisville after Wonder Dean’s triumph in the Dubai Derby. He did a phenomenal job with T O Password
I put down a couple of Hamiltons on Danon Bourbon and Wonder Dean in Futures Pool 6. This could well be the year for the Japanese as both of these horses have good credentials. Domo arrigato!
Did anyone catch what odds Emerging Market closed at in the recent pool?
Emerging Market closed as the 5th choice at 15-1 behind Renegade, Commandment,
The Puma, and Chief Wallabee.
Mine That Bird > Rich Strike > Grittiness?
Look at that breeding.
I see you in the Virginia Derby..
Pletcher barn bomba.
Like you would turn down chance to own either one during their racing careers. Lol
I don’t know what you mean by that Mike. I was saying Grittiness could be a shocker like those other two.
My error, sorry.
No problem. 🙂
Ten years have passed since Dr. Steven Roman has updated Chef configurations relating to pedigrees, he’s now in the process of updating the chef-de-race list which includes (Dosage Profile, Dosage Index and Center of Distribution). He has indicated that the CD number is more important than the Dosage Profile number.
I don’t pretend to fully understand how chef-de-race and conduit mares point to a potential Derby prospect. However, Dr. Roman pointed out that Emerging Market’s profile is closely related to Sovereignty.
Just something to think about.
I miss the old days with Dr. Roman. I exchanged many e-mails with him. While Dosage Profiles are similar, Emerging Market has only 2 starts and I will let the first Candy Ride sire offspring beat me.
Thanks for the reply, Paul.
Granted, Emerging Market’s foundation is rather weak, to say the least. However, Steve has this Candy Ride colt rated at #12 on this week’s Derby Rankings, which says a lot, IMO. He earned 100 Derby points for his Louisiana Derby Win, so why not take a shot at the Kentucky Derby?
Emerging Market is certainly a horse to consider in the exotic wagers, IMO.
Hello Steve – Hopefully you can get an update for us from Eliot Walden about the condition and statis of Class President on your next derby rankings. He’s got the points, he’s in. If it’s a minor issue, maybe he can get in 2 or 3 works before the Derby to give him a shot. I know he would be a longshot now, but he is talented and you never know even with the layoff.
Well Steve , do you still think that ‘So Happy ” is just a sprinter ??? Your lack of respect (you didn’t even mention him in your week 10 assessment) for him has been a disappointment and puzzlement for not only me but also few others on this blog. But that is ok as other pundits on the Derby trail avoided him too but I expected better from you. I think a lot of pundits out there when they saw his sire “Run Happy” in his pedigree they pigeon holed him as a sprinter only.
Can he win the KD and my answer to that is of course he can and so can about a dozen horses. We all know to win that race it take a healthy horse , a horse with a good foundation under him , a great trip and most of all a lot of luck !!!.
As far of my assessment for the SA Derby. I thought in the post parade before the race I thought 3 horses stood out and they were So Happy, Potente and surprisingly the horse that ran 3rd Vitruvian Man. I thought Cherokee Nation (CN)looked lackadaisical with ears just flopping and not very focused and his poor start probably cost Potente a chance of winning the race as it probably changed the strategy that Hernandez wanted to use with Potente in the race. In hindsight Baffert should have given him (CN) a sharp 3 furlong ( 34 to 35 second) blowout 2 to 3 days before the race to put him on his toes (gee I thought Baffert said he had finally figured out this horse???)
When the race started and I saw Smith putting So Happy (SH)near the front I thought to myself here we go again but was glad he backed off pace going into the first turn. I still thought he still a little to close to the pace on the backstretch but I saw that SH was running easy doing it. Going around the turn coming into the stretch SH was gaining on the leaders and I was screaming for him to keep going which he did.
Can he win the KD with the same kind of ride? Probably not as I would like to see him just a little further back off the pace (about 4 to 5 lengths more off the pace in the backstretch) as that CD stretch is a llloooonnnnggggg one. As for Potente I think he gains a lot out of this race and like his chances in the KD but only if he comes from off the pace (remember he is a Into Mischief sired horse). I like his chances !!!
My top 8 for the derby right now and in no particular order as they are all capable of beating each other on any given Saturday are:
Renegade , Commandment, Further Ado, So Happy , Potente, Chief Wallabee, The Puma, and Incredibolt
As for Mike Smith the “Bulb” burned brighter in his house last nigh !!!
BTW Steve a Happy “Belated” Birthday !!! Have a GREAT WEEK !!!
(well I was also wrong, I couldn’t figure him, after his San Felipe, but he only was beat a couple lengths, yesterday he got the same trip he won his other races on ..two lengths out and pounced to victory, NICE COLT! He belongs!…
(seems like you get chewed out, for being wrong on this site, “imagine that”!….everybody in Horse Racing is wrong most of the time, but you get a talking to, when you get it wrong!.)..
One other horse I will add to the list is… FULLEFFORT. His powerful late effort kick is made for CD stretch. Now if he can transition it from synthetic to dirt…. WATCH OUT AMERICA!!!
I have been tracking comments about So Happy here since Bill Dawson and I had a deep discussion about the presence of the X factor in the grandson of Blame.
If we go back to week 8 we can confirm that Steve was clear about the chances of So Happy in the SA Derby.
Steve wrote “It looks as though Potent, Robusta, So Happy, and Secured Freedom will all come back in the Santa Anita Derby. And why shouldn’t they? There is no one to be affraid of and any of these horses could WIN.” Then he described all the trip troubles of Secure Freedom in the San Felipe. Steve continued his argument for So Happy having the same troubles by writing: “The same with So Happy who ran well and could also improve with a two-turn race under him”.
On top of all that I always keep in mind Steve’s advocating the seven-furlong for sophomore debuts as an effective sharpener. So Happy validates that claim again as Nyquist and Exaggerator did back in 2016.
Yes, Steve referred to So Happy once as a “likely sprinter” but in the SA Derby the one running like a sprinter was Potente and not So Happy.
Perhaps many So Happy fans expected to see him in the ranking but placing Further Ado in 4th this week is a great call in my mind eyes… and So Happy has been a fixture in many KotD segments.
Anyway, it is extremely difficult to write about all the Derby hopefuls making head ways every single week and it is expected that some had to wait until they are relevant to be highlighted in any given week.
Hi Nelson
I was so locked in on Potente, that I completely forgot about the stamina influence reflected on So Happy’s dam side. However, just to be honest, I would have gone for Potente as my SA Derby pick anyway. I believe Potente will continue to improve moving forward and will make a strong showing in the KD. Currently, I have Further Ado and Renegade tied for first on my Derby Watch list, followed by Potente at #3 and Commandment at #4.
BTW, my condolences on missing that huge superfecta payout in the Wood Memorial.
A real gut punch to say the least.
Good luck moving forward, Nelson.
The San Felipe Stakes and the Santa Anita Derby were battles of Jockey tactics.
In the San Felipe Potente stalked the 4 frontrunners (Brant, So Happy, Secured Freedom, and Robusta) and finished like a rocket. Yesterday they made Potente carve the (hot) pace and So Happy was the one tracking the pace to draw away powerfully the last furlong.
Given that the Derby field likely got only two natural frontrunners in Pavlovian and Six Speed horses with tactical speed will have an advantage. So, the decision to test Potente’s early speed yesterday could be a good one and having So Happy as an effective stalker will play very well in the Derby too.
Regarding the Superfecta blunder I should have played the 20 cents version instead the $1 to include more horses. The good thing is we can spot vulnerable favorites and bet accordingly.
Good luck to you as well Bill especialy in picking a nice longshot for the Derby exotics…
Nelson, comment not directed to you, sorry.
Copy that Mike.
The hostage message is aligned to the reply margin of Dowthestretch. So, I never saw it as a reply to me.
Thanks.
You aren’t being held hostage here.
How does it feel to be ignored, Down?
Eleven horses entered for next Saturday’s Lexington at Keeneland. I doubt that any of them are looking for Derby points. Just a piece of the $400k purse.
Chief Wallabee and Potente lost their third starts .both ran well, for trainers that know how to get one ready, for the big prize …
The bounce factor was on full display, yesterday at Santa Anita….as Cherokee Nation not only stumbled, at the break—he never picked it up, at any point in the race, but that’s the bounce factor—Further Ado got a 106 Beyer, and mewonders if a bounce is in his cards?…
Hi Mathew
On March 30th, I posted the following comment, (regarding Cherokee Nation), “I have my doubts that he’ll replicate that form in the SA Derby. In other words, I expect a big, fat bounce.” He did just that.
As for Further Ado, his record in six career starts (6: 3-1-1) has provided a strong foundation moving forward on the Derby trail. I strongly suggest that a bounce is not in the cards. Currently, I believe that Further Ado, Renegade or Potente will win this year’s Kentucky Derby. Early on, Commandment was my Derby horse, and he didn’t disappoint in the Florida Derby. However, I beginning to have my doubts that he’s as good as three afore mentioned colts. Unless his Thoro-Graph number of “4” that he earned in the Florida Derby, improves significantly, in the Derby, I doubt that he’ll finish ahead of Further Ado, Renegade or Potente, IMO.
I am not much on the “bounce” factor as I think it was more of “poor” preparation on Baffert’s part. He certainly was not ready for Big Effort yesterday.. With as many races he had under his belt it certainly was not for lack of foundation.
Let me get this straight, Bill, on the sole basis of Commandment not running a Thorograph under “4” that disqualifies him from winning the Derby? Wow.
Billy
Yes, that is correct, I stand by that statement.
I predict he’ll hit the board to round out superfecta wagers, but not as the winner. Just my opinion.
WOW?
I thought that “The Chief” was safely into the Derby with his 50 points. Wrong. I forgot about the automatic qualifiers. “The Chief” needs some defections. HELP!!!!
Hi Tommy …. Following my quirky pedigree rules for handicapping the Derby , Gen 1 Curlin sire is a toss on the Win only bet for me until I can see one do it. May only translate to one length at the finish but it caught up with Journalism. Gen 2 Curlin sire is acceptable for me as Rich Strike and Mage made me change my rules there.
Fingers crossed Tommy, but there likely will be at least two defections, with Stark Contrast likely for the American Turf on Derby Day and Class President iffy given how he trained this week. And there are still four weeks for more horses to drop out. Let’s hope the Chief stays sound.
I was right about the Wood Memorial producing a big priced winner. I didn’t like Napoleon Solo or Iron Honor. But I went with the wrong longshot. Frustrating.
I ended up on Courting. Threw out his previous race and remembered his long stride in defeat at the Remsen. I know that I should give up on that horse. But I can’t.
Courting was smashed out of the gate. I wasn’t too happy with Kendrick Carmouche’s ride after that. Courting got interfered with again in the stretch when trying to rally.
I still feel like there is some talent there. Maybe Todd Pletcher regroups and he shows up in the Peter Pan and then the Belmont.
My major weakness as a handicapper is chasing losers. I can’t help myself.
I feel you TommyMcD. I removed Ocelli from my Superfecta combinations at the last minute to make room for Courting… I am still beating my head on that decision…!
I saw $5 million horse for a poweful connection against a $12K horse still a maiden and thought Ocelli was no match … but horses don’t know about price tags or poweful people owning them. They just care about running as fast as long as they can and Ocelli proved to be faster than 10 of his rivals in the Wood Memorial.
This is a lesson I will never forget.
Don’t forget Six Speed who ran second in the UAE Derby. I can find pedigree knocks in all the US domiciled horses this year. Horses I liked on pedigree like Cherokee Nation and Reagan’s Honor did not qualify. Except for Six Speed which I hope he comes here, this would be a very unique Derby for me as I would sit out and not bet. The more I look into Six Speed, the more I love, love, love this horse, 4 races, all good. US born, Dubai domiciled. Indian trainer worked under Bob Baffert early in his career. Horse rated a little in early races so I disagree he is unrateable. I also love the 5th Generation Secretariat on both the sire and dam side. Even chatgpt thinks I am crazy, but as an example I will never bet an Into Mischief sire without that angle, only 2 have won the Derby, Authentic and Sovereignty.
I rewatched the Wood several times last night. Some very interesting trips in there. But that happens in a bigger field.
Albus didnt surprise me, I mentioned him this week on here. So Happy surprised me. But when I saw him in the post parade I was very impressed and was very interested to see him run this mile 1/8 race. Right after I saw him Kristina on FDTV said he is small. That wasnt my impression. But she is a terrific analyst and I really enjoy her work. So Happy was very impressive, I went back and watched it again, all I can say is man was that impressive. For Potente, not that this happened, but after hitting his mount when SH got beside and seeing SH was not going away, it appeared to me Juan didnt press the issue and wear out Potente anymore than he already had been. He wasnt going to beat SH.
I thought exactly that, Digger! Potente was not persevered with, they are in—and they will not find themselves on the lead, in The Derby….settle that horse, give him a target—Im still bullish, on Potente, I wanted him to run 2nd….and he ran a good 2nd….his price will be good, probably around 10-1….. he’s Bob’s only horse, in the 2026 Kentucky Derby..
Potente got very much the kind of trip Silver Charm got in the SA Derby. He’ll be stronger. I still like Renegade, but Potente is right there.
Hi Todd
I agree with your assessment, so much so, that I boxed Renegade with Potente, in a $50.00 exacta wager, (Pool 6).
BTW, do you have any thoughts on the Japanese colt, Danon Bourbon?
I boxed him with Potente in a $20.00 exacta wager, (Pool 6).
Danon Bourbon is undefeated in three starts, mostly recently winning the Fukuryu Stakes. Steve has him ranked at #8 and based on how he works over the Churchill track, prior to the Derby, he could move up on the late Derby Rankings. Stay tuned for that.
If the standings I’m seeing on twitter are right Intrepido is 4 spots out of the Derby with 38 points and Universe is 5 spots out with 38 also. So that means Intrepido getting passed at the wire for 3rd didnt cost him any position in the standings as Chip Honcho who is 1 spot ahead of him has 49. Intrepido would have 48 if he had finished 3rd.
Currently, Renegade is ranked #1, which is understandable. However, Further Ado’s win in the Blue Grass was just as impressive as Renegade’s Arkansas Derby win, IMO.
Renegade earned an Equibase Speed figure of 107, and Thoro-Graph number of “1”.
Further Ado earned an Equibase Speed figure of 107 as well, in the Blue Grass.
His TG number has yet to be determined, but you would think he made a major improvement in that regard.
So, will we see Renegade ranked at 1A, and Further Ado ranked at 1B, or vice versa?
Stay tuned for Derby Rankings Week 12.
The 2 runners mentioned in your summary look to be standouts. I’m interested to see Further Ado’s TG number also as I think he’s gonna pair up the already standout number produced. From a visual standpoint what Further Ado displayed was special.
+ He has already been tested on the Churchill strip winning last Fall the Ky Jockey Club Stakes to boot.
Six weeks ago I said that 2026 was going be a contest between Gun Runner, Into Mischief, and Not This Time. I was wrong about adding Not This Time to the equation. I was hoping that Further Ado and Paladin would be 1-2 in the KD, but I will have to settle for #1. FA could have run The Blue Grass even faster, but he was not pushed at all.
Let me add to the Happy Birthday wishes. You had an excellent day of racing to add to your celebration. I was blown away by Further Ado’s performance, and now I’m not sure who my Derby horse should be. I’m very anxious to see who you put at Number One this week, and I’m even more anxious to see who Irad puts there. This is a fascinating Derby.
Happy Birthday, Steve!!
And, many thanks for all you do: you add so much to the Derby trail!
Thanks very much.
93-1, final Futures, on So Happy …
He was 100-1 at WH prior to race; now 25-1…
Steve: Happy Birthday!
Thank you!
The dust is still settling, but at the moment, 50 points appears to be the cut-off to make the Derby field. While it’s likely there will be at least a coupler of defections (Stark Contrast and possibly Class President and Iron Honor) one of my favorites, Chief Wallabee, appears to be sitting at #21 if the tie-breaker is graded stakes earnings.
Ms. Blacktype, stated lately my opinion is CW gets in providing he stays sound.
Well I was wondering how a horse that did 1:21 flat could pack it in, like that, in the San Felipe….and today he runs a professional race, in 1:49.01,, that’s a fine time—So Happy has a look, at The Derby….and THERE’S your story….
WOW, Mike and Go Happy!
Congratulations!
No distance limitations on that son of Runhappy. And congratulations to Mike Smith AND Mark Glatt.
So Happy for Mark Glatt and Mike Smith!
So Happy So Good!
Very happy for horse, trainer, and connections!
Congrats to Albus! Had wrong horse today.
Tell me about the wrong horse MIke…Ocelli took me out of a 46K Superfecta. The Wood was a clear case of very vulnerable (top three) favorites and the chance for huge payouts.
I missed the exacta by a nose: I keyed the 5 and 7…looked great until the wire!
Nelson, sorry to hear about that. Tomorrow is a new day! Going tomorrow to Kentucky Downs for casino play.
They were crawling home in the Wood, but that sure was exciting. If the Derby pace is hot, will be fun to hold a ticket with Right to Party.
Happy Birthday, Steve!
I’m delighted for the connections of Albus. Way to go, Jaime Torres and Riley Mott!
Further Ado wins the Blue Grass stakes by a record margin of 11 lengths clocking an outstanding 1:49.58 finishing in 11.95… Irad Ortiz Jr. will have a tough decision to make between Further Ado and Renegade…
The son of Gun Runner is a very agile runner … great fit for the Derby complexion.
Hi Nelson
In Pool 2, I boxed Further Ado, (at 13-1) with Commandment, (at 69-1). in a $4.00 exacta.
Commandment 1st, Further Ado 2nd, = $5,672
Further Ado 1st, Commandment 2nd, = $4,446
Further Ado’s Blue Grass win was awesome, and he’s got the pedigree to get the Classic distance, IMO. His sire Gun Runner needs no introduction, and his dam side is inundated with class and stamina.
I’m looking forward to the Thoro-Graph number that he earned in the Blue Grass.
Now, the big question, which horse will Irad Ortiz Jr. choose, Renegade or Further Ado?
Stay tuned for that decision.
Hi Bill.
I am glad your futures are showing promise… you are on track to win some like last year you did…!
Given the level of commitment to Brad Cox barn lately I feel Irad would go with Further Ado… with Class President out I suspect Renegade would go to John Velazquez looking for his FOURTH Derby.
Thanks, Nelson
You could be right about Irad. Further Ado certainly proved he can carry his impressive speed over a distance of ground.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Further Ado jumps up to #1, on Steve’s Week 12 Derby Rankings. We’ll see.
Well … This week Steve went digging into Further Ado’s six generation to explain the source of his great speed. So, by placing him in 4th behind the big 3 Steve showed confidence that a big run was coming by the son of Gun Runner in the Blue Grass.
Now the discussions will be around which prep was stronger between the Blue Grass and the Santa Anita Derby… So far, at least for me, the Florida Derby is a key race to handicap the Derby.
This is an interesting discussion. I’ve been all over the place with Derby selections. Two weeks ago I was leaning toward Commandment. Then last week I thought Renegade was more impressive and I expected he would probably be my choice. But today I was blown away by Further Ado’s performance–maybe more than any I’ve seen this year–and I’m thinking maybe he’s the one. I too will be very interested to see which one Irad chooses. Right now I’m hoping it’s Further Ado. Whoever he doesn’t choose will have no problem finding a rider. They’ll be lined up all the way to the quarter pole.
Bill, I have to apologize for trying to talk you out of Albus when we thought he was going in the Florida Derby. He sure looked good picking up the pieces at Aqueduct.
Good luck in the Santa Anita Derby.
No problem, Ms Blacktype.
Albus win at Tampa was on par with that of Emerging Market… Tampa has been relevant this year.
Further Ado’s final furlong was 12.95, not 11.95
Going with Steel for the win in next few min.
I’ll join in the chorus of wishing you a happy birthday, Steve. As a fellow septuagenarian and Aries, my birthday is next week. Hope you are enjoying the races.
Thank you and early Happy Birthday
Happy Birthday MsB.
Won’t be far behind you!
Hope it’s wonderful, Lynda, whenever it comes!
Whenever it may be, I hope you have a very happy birthday, Ms. Blacktype.
2nd lifetime start Crude Velocity run 6 1/2 F in 1:14.82 for Baffert at SA.
He went 1:14.32…thats 1:14 1/5, for 6 1/2 furlongs, VERY FAST, coming from 4th, he opened up on them like any kind …
My eyesight isn’t what it used to be. Gracias for the correction. That’s blazing fast.
Happy Birthday Steve. Enjoy the show today I think we are in for some great racing.Maybe one day we’ll get to see a picture of you and the horse of your choice blowing out your birthday candles together in a barn somewhere. Just a suggestion.
Thanks very much. I’ll take any horse with lungs stronger than mine.
Happy Birthday to a racing extraordinaire.
We have the Derby workouts to look forward to watching. I love watching them blowing steam out of their nostrils like an angry dragon. Maybe you can find good candidate then.
In today’s races I like Further Ado, Potente, and Napoleon Solo. My best wishes to everyone for a safe and good trip.
The purchasers of Golden Gate Fields referred to Horse Racing as a “bygone era”, which stings ….they may be right—at the least, that is the way Racing is viewed, by California Politicos, mewonders how much longer Santa Anita will remain, something I would not have dreamed would happen….
Its so very sad to even think that Santa Anita’s days are numbered Mathew, but unfortunately you’re probably correct, it’s like a slow death. Purses are down, race entries are embarrassingly small, now baffert moves half his stable, is he preparing for the inevitable? what’s next? I’m sure developers are just drooling over the potential of the property SA sits on! We better enjoy SA while we can!!
Santa Anita is still the best place to prep your Derby hopefuls
…They are saying this year’s SA Derby won’t have an impact, on the Kentucky Derby….don’t sell Santa Anita short!..
It is really sad that the vision of some officials is to abolish dedicating any open space to what they perceive as mere “gambling venues”… they should understand that it is not about gambling but it is about sustaining an entertainment/sport industry that renders economic and social benefits.
Apparently the state regulators are promoting a single circuit model in South California so I want to believe that Del Mar would not be targeted for redevelopment. Who knows…
I tell you Matthew I am pretty sure that horse racing will never be erased in happy and properous countries.
Nelson, I read recently that the foal crop is decreasing in England.
That is somewhat sobering news.
Maybe if the higher ups had the brains to know how to market / broadcast horse racing to attract and nurture lifelong fans, it would stand a chance. But no, instead of focusing the cameras on the horses, and getting people to fall in love with the horses, for some insane reason, they are always on the owners, the trainers, the jockeys, and the analysts and their picks.
Sorry, had to get that off my chest.
Steve, Do any of the Derby horse(s) have a really good story this year?
I Hope so.😊
The last of the big Derby prep races will be run today. The Blue Grass (6:22 p.m.) and Wood (6:34 p.m.) go off closely together. The Santa Anita Derby will be run an hour after the Wood, at 7:46 p.m. May every horse have a clean and safe trip.
My picks for each race:
Blue Grass: Reagan’s Honor, Further Ado, Creole Chrome
Wood: Iron Honor, Talk to Me Jimmy, Steel
Santa Anita Derby: Cherokee Nation, Intrepido, Potente
Bob puts Crude Velocity in against older, in April…I’m guessing he will try the Pat Day Mile with him, vs Englishman, Crude paid $23, winning his debut in spectacular fashion, he broke last—against a strong group ..
Happy Birthday Steve!
Thanks Lynda.
Mullins gave Intrepido an extra month, for this…good work progression, with a slow final work….a friend thinks he is going to run big, today, I exacta boxed him and Robusta, with Potente, who should be in the exacta
Last four SA Derby starters for Mullins—3 wins, 1 second….
Not sleeping on Great White. My selection.
Mine too, Mike! I think he is a tryer …I boxed an exacta with Reagan’s Honor, who has worked well, for this, and figures to be sent…
Good Luck to you, Mathew!
Mike, I too like Great White.
Jut something about him, maybe it is those loooong legs!
Thanks for reply Lynda!
Class President will scratch from the BlueGrass. Does Todd Pletcher run him in next week’s Lexington Stakes? Class President already has 50 points which should be plenty to get him into the Derby starting gate. It will be tough to win the Derby with such a long break between races if he doesn’t run in the Lexington. The last thing I read, Pletcher said that Class President is NOT off the Derby Trail.
I really don’t see him as a Derby contender after such a narrow win over the likes of Silent Tactic. No offense.
as Nick Tammaro and Chris Larmey said on the latter’s podcast this week, those 2 gentlemen have a better chance of making the Derby starting gate than Class President. Despite Pletcher’s comment, it’s just too late, and moreover, Pletcher horses who have setbacks like this usually end up being away for awhile rather than back racing quickly.
Agreed! As I’ve stated for years.
Right on…too late to change the game plan at this point. Amazing that TP scratched him and at the same time tellscusches not off the derbybtrail…what?
…tells us he’s…
To understand the excitement surrounding Cherokee Nation, one should start by revisiting his second start at a mile at Santa Anita on October 13. He rocketed to the lead from the get go carving out a scorching pace while under relentless pressure from Work and Mr. A. P. The latter put a half length in front of Cherokee Nation turning for home, but the son of Not This Time refused to fold surging back in the final furlong to miss only by a nose. The brilliant pair were in a race of their own, finishing 13 lengths clear of the third horse, while Work paid the price of engaging Cherokee Nation early and trailed by 37 lengths.
When Mr. A. P. cambe back just 18 days later to run a gallant second in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile, Cherokee Nation became a top-2-year-old by proxy in my book. HIs pedigree only reinforced that perception: Not This Time has been knocking on the Derby door for four years, and his damsire, Indian Charlie, evokes shades of the great Flightline; on top of that, Cherokee Nation’s imposing physical presence made him a rising star in my mind eyes.
With that promising second start as his calling card he was shipped to Churchill Downs to contest the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes but his three-race streak of bad luck started right there. Cherokee Nation was slammed hard entering the first turn, lost his action, and never recovered, finishing fifth, 9 lengths behind Further Ado.
Five weeks later, back at Santa Anita, he delivered another eye-opening mile. After spotting the field roughly 5 lenghts at the break, he unleashed a furious late run, covering the last 3/16-mile in a spectacular 17 2/5 seconds to finish just a half length behind the gritty Robusta. I cannot recall any faster final 3/16 on a two-turn DIRT mile race. Given the final time of 1:35 3/5, it’s fair to speculate that with a clean start Cherokee Nation might have stopped the clock in the 1:34-and-change range.
Cherokee Nation never threatened in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes after another weird start. But only 20 days later, thanks to the superb gate riding skills of Emisael Jaramillo, Cherokee Nation broke forward and reenacted the early speed he showed in his second start to crush the maiden field by 10 swelling lengths. His final quarter in 24 2/5 signals he will do as good at 9 furlongs.
His time of 1:34.50 is the third fastest for a mile in the history of Santa Anita. The track record is 1:33.40 (Ruhlman) in 1989; but since the track major rehabilitation in 2014 the record is 1:34.11 by the Brazilian horse Baccolo in 2016.
To give you an idea of how good Cherokee Nation’s mile was take note that the average time for all the Breeder’s Cup Mile dirt ran at Santa Anita is 1:35.63. The only other sub 1:35 I can recall is Cavalieris’ 1:34.96 in the Grade 1 Beholder Stakes in March last year.
To me, Cherokee Nation’s romp at a mile was more a confirmation of the inmense raw talent he showed against Mr. A. P. than just a mere maiden win.
If Florent Geroux manages a clean break for Cherokee Nation in the Santa Anita Derby they could very well start writing a new brilliant chapter in their athletic careers.
Steve, any chance you could share The Puma’s Thoro-Graph from the FL Derby?
2 1/2
Thank you so much. And thank you for all your incredible work on this blog. I’ve been reading it weekly every year leading up to the Derby since I found it on BH about 15 years ago.
Thanks Digger!
It has been TEN YEARS, since a horse ran a faster mile at Santa Anita than Cherokee Nation”s maiden win…
Hi Steve,
Have you ever displayed your rankings as tiers? This would give us a better sense of the separation between the horses, as you see it. I’m not thinking every week, but maybe one time just before the derby?
When I started Derby Watch in 1992 and we had 40 horses i did it in tiers. When you say tiers do you mean by category such as favorites, contenders, and longshots? Its harder to that if im ranking 12, possible with 15, and doable with 20..I think that could work. Something to think about. Maybe the commenters can chime in and give their opinion if they prefer category tiers.
You have already been providing distinctive separation via Thoro-Graph and other speed figures.
We just have to pay attention but if you want to make it more explicit you can display the best Thoro-Graph or the last 3 next to the trainer and pedigree header of your TOP horses . Those are hard cored metrics of ability…
Then your audience may apply their own adjectives to the ranked horses. After all, we all know that the best figures don’t warrant best performances in the Derby and there may be many interpretations of the same data.
And the KotD segment is a great category tier as is anyway.
I think Tiers is a little more specific than favorites, contenders, long shots (in my head).
For example, Renegade, The Puma, and Commandment may all be favorites. But maybe you feel Renegade is in a tier of his own (Tier 1). So The Puma and Commandment would be on Tier 2 (a cut below Renegade).
And maybe there are 9 total contenders and longshots, but you would break them out into three tiers (Tiers 3, 4, and 5). And maybe you have one of the longshots in Tier 3 because you feel he is stronger than the horses in tiers 4 and 5.
Anyways, don’t want to over complicate things or make a one-off request. Tiers is just another way to see how strongly you feel about each horse, where the separations are.
Way too many tiers. It will look like a total mess.
The Bluegrass is down to just 7 runners. Will we see more horses running in next week’s Lexington? Maybe.
Probably a few for sure but only one horse has won the Derby after running in the Lexington…if you’re running in the Lex you’re desparate and not likely to grt a sniff in the Derby…Renegade wont win either….derby horses in bad hands is usually end in failure…good luck to those backing Renegade ss their derby horse…you’re gonna need it…!.
Agree with your comment regarding the Lex.
Big purse too ..
The electrifying battles staged by the Eastern Derby hopefuls Commandment, The Puma, Chief Wallabee, Further Ado, and the imposing exploits of Renegade have kept me a bit forgetful of the Californians.
However, when I saw Desert Gate putting 10 lengths in front of Soldier N Diplomat at Oaklawn I felt that Santa Anita speed might have a say in the Derby. The Santa Anita Derby will give us a good idea of how strong would be the West against the stirring East on Derby day.
The San Felipe Stakes is the natural prep for the SA Derby. Since 2014 there have been seven editions when the top three finishers in the San Felipe Stakes also advanced to the Santa Anita Derby. Five horses have completed the San Felipe-Santa Anita Derby double in that span -California Chrome, Dortmund, Bold d’Oro (via DQ), Practical Move, and Journalism-
Honor A.P. won the SA Derby following a second place in the San Felipe, and Exaggerator did it after a third in the San Felipe Stakes.
So, knowing the predictive value of the San Felipe one can expect Potente to be in the money in the Santa Anita Derby.
Potente looked good in winning the San Felipe Stakes after tracking the frontrunners but even more impressive was his gallop out leaving the field about 10 lengths behind by the time he was pulled up. Theoretically, the son of Into Mischief should improve in his third start and he is a deserving ML 2/1 favorite.
Renegade, Commandment, and Potente are the three cards of Into Mischief to become the winningest Derby sire this year; and a win by Potente will make Bob Baffert the winningest trainer in the running for the Roses.
These will be storylines you will be hearing during the Derby broadcasts to build anticipation and spark excitement.
A fan of Honor AP.
Reagan’s Honor is ready to make him proud…
Thinking RH has a bright future.
I sure hope so – HAP has done very well with his limited opportunities at stud
He may run very well and still not make the Derby – wouldn’t be the end of the world
🤞🤞🤞🤞
Potente is my Derby Horse …
Good pick Mathew…He will likely be among the favorites
Mathew W
Currently, I have Potente and Renegade rated at the top of my Derby watch list.
In Pool 6, I boxed them in a $50.00 exacta wager. In Pool 5, I boxed those same two with $10.00 exacta wager. Fingers crossed.
After watching the video replay of Danon Bourbon’s Fukuryu Stakes win, I boxed him with Potente in a $40.00 exacta wager.
Needless to say, I’m very high on Potente.
edit: correction, I boxed Danon Bourbon with Potente in a $20.00 exacta wager (not $40.00)
Incredibolt’s older full brother, Dr. Saikali, runs in race 7 Saturday at Keeneland.
I think Robusta has a big chance, at getting into The Derby….he ran best in The Felipe, and by far, really…8-1 looking like a chicken dinner, to quote Los Al Gary….I’ll box with Potente and moonwalk all the way to the cashier’s window (us oldies know cashier’s window —where the winners separated briefly, from the last sets, because the cashier windows were on the other side!
He’s bred to run all day. I thought he had a big chance in the Bob Lewis and he was coming off a win over Cherokee Nation and Blacksmith. I wrote him off for the San Felipe after I went back and rewatched his win in that race I mentioned and I thought he ran about the worst race of any of the runners in that race even though he won it. But he showed up big in the SF and if he can switch leads and run straight in the stretch we’ll see what happens. Very interesting race.
Thanks, for the input….YES! Robusta has “room for improvement”, Doug loves him….Doug doesn’t run his maidens against Bob, as a rule—Homebred Robusta is an outlier, in that respect, he will be sitting just off Cherokee Nation, we will see if ‘Nation can repeat that monster win. .
I’d love to see Robusta run big and get into the Derby field. The dam, Urbane Legend whose mother is Urbane comes from the Jay Em Ess stable of many notable runners. They’re really good people in the sport. I’m rooting for them.
Yesterday I again watched Albus last race winning at a mile 40 yards. He looked terrific down the lane and galloping out. By Yaupon out of a Bernardini mare, Unbrideled the other grandsire on the bottom.
Here is what Riley Mott said “I think he’ll go a mile and a half frankly”.
Loved this post, as you always knock it out of the park, Steve… What stood out most in this one was Further Ado’s lineage. Having the fastest three Kentucky Derby winners in his pedigree blew my mind as well as the rest about his lineage- just wow. Coincidentally, I’ve been catching up with past Derbies for fun (TG for YouTube) and just saw Monarchos’s 2001 win. Fascinating how he rallied from third last with a massive stretch run behind a blistering pace (the pace setter set the fastest opening half mile in history) & ran the second fastest KD ever… I just ordered Tales from the TC – can’t wait to read it. Cheers.
Thank you very much Shelly. Im glad you enjoyed the stats on Further Ado. It was fun digging all that up. Hope you enjoy the book.
Further Ado earned a 106 Beyer in the Blue Grass. Whew! That fast lineage is holding up. Can’t wait to see his Thoro for this one.
Talk about short fields, only two horses entered in the 1st race today, at Aqueduct.
Match race?
Class President to scratch from the BG as Todd “didn’t like the way he went today”. He says he’s not necessarily off the Derby Trail
Seems off to me – it’s only one month to the Derby. Why not point him to the Preakness if he’s ok?
Yes, but it certainly improves the chances that Reagan’s Honor will run either first or second. I’m on his bandwagon now.
Maybe – I was confident Reagan would run well regardless, even if he didn’t make the Derby…
I think he’s a genuinely good horse, but the class test is real. The horse he beat last time came back to win with a much improved BSF (per David Aragona), so that bolsters him
I’d like to see him stalking – because I do think there’s speed here. Then again, races always turn out differently than you expect, lol
Especially this year.
I just feel like whenever there’s expected speed, it turns out the jockeys all strangle the “speed” horses back, and one ends up on a lonely, glacially paced lead
Keeneland…for decades…was a speed favoring track, especially inside speed….the defection of CO also helps Great White…I intend to box those two….
(CP)
Correct, Betsy…leave it to TP to tell us that a horse who is scratched from his last prep is still on the derby trail…he must be smoking the good stuff…and if he does run hes a bet against at this point…
Class Prez will more than likely be a late entry in the Lexington Stakes. Last ditch attempt to get in if he’s on fringe. Might apply as well to Chief Wallabee. Both have 50 i believe….JMO
Hi Steve,
As a Fan of Damascus, I cheer for horses who have him in their pedigree. This includes any offspring of Mendelssohn. While looking at Minorinconvenience who will likely be one of the longer shots in the Wood Memorial (though I am not discounting him for third), I noticed he has Hold Your Peace in his forth generation which immediately brought a smile to my face.
Hold Your Peace would be considered one of the top three-year-olds of 1972 once you get past Riva Ridge and Key to the Mint. He was a classy colt who hung in there for much of Riva Ridge’s Derby before giving way to No Le Hace for the place showing.
During these long, cold Canadian winters, warmth comes from reflecting on the glorious days of thoroughbred racing that was the mid 60’s through the mid 70s (no disrespect intended to Kelso, Affirmed, Alydar, Seattle Slew, and Spectacular Bid.)
greg (in Winnipeg) Fan of Damascus . . . always
Hi Greg. Talking about Canadian long winters, here in Calgary we had a strong spring snowfall today. I had to shovel out 20 centimeters of snow from my driveway… so no gym for me today as that was enough workout for one day.
Hold Your Peace was the most improved Derby hopeful in Florida winning the 9 furlongs of the Flamingo Stakes defeating Florida Derby and Wood Memorial winner Upper Case by 10 lengths in 1:48 2/5 for 9 furlongs.
Hold Your Peace was the best horse in the Everglades Stakes but his jockey was so uptight about defeating Riva Ridge that they both were surprised by Head of the River (receiving 10-pound advantage). Hold your Peace finished second and Riva Ridge disappointed in fourth signaling his strong disliked of sloppy tracks.
New Prospect had to break the track record in the 7-furlong Bahamas Stakes to defeat Hold Your Peace by a head. Key to the Mint and Head of the River disppointed in the Bahamas.
The Saturday before the Derby Hold Your Peace won the Stepping Stone Purse at Churchill in 1:24 for 7 furlongs and extending his breeze to 9 furlongs cloking 1:52.
Imagine if the modern trainers used Allowance races as workouts. We would not have horses with 2 or 3 starts going for the Roses.
Regarding Damascus descendants you have some good ones to root for:
Fulleffort, Incredibolt, Chief Wallabee, Potente, Robusta, So Happy, Cherokee Nation, Napoleon Solo, Reagan’s Honor, Chip Honcho got Private Account in his 5th generation, and Steel got Damascus dam Sword Game in his 5th generation.
UAE Derby runner-up, Six Speed, exhibits an enticing 5Sx5D inbreed to Damascus.
The legacy of Damascus is ensured by the likes of outstanding Stallions like Not This Time, Medaglia d’Oro, Omaha Beach, Liam’s Map, Scat Daddy, Practical Joke, and Volatile. And not to forget that Big Brown was a freak with Damascus inbreeding and the sire of the infalible broodmare PUCA.
There you have it… I hope you have enjoyed the Hold your Peace and Damascus references in this post.
All the best!
Hi Nelson,
I always enjoy hearing from you.
Thanks for the pedigree information on Derby-contending horses with Damascus in their bloodlines.
I hope all is well with you in Calgary.
greg (Fan of Damascus)
Looking forward to Class President in the Bluegrass. He drew well from PP2 and being tactical can closely follow whoever goes to the lead and save ground with his inside draw. I’m glad John V is his jockey, he is familiar with CP and IMO he is the one to beat in the Bluegrass.
Bummer, Joe….
Hi Matt. Definitely not a good KDFW year for me. I had Paladin and CP in future wagers and now are both out. We certainly had a near miss last year with Journalism, but unfortunately Sovereignity was in the race.
Journalism at 52-1 was a great wager, I never have bet big–on futures—as a kid my dad bought me the yearly subscription of Sports Illustrated, you saved a lot that way….
The magazine always had an in-depth article…posted in the back of the mag, and going on for many pages…I remember they had one about a guy that made a large bet on The Boston Red Sox to win the AL pennant, in 1967….back then there were no divisions, you had to beat nine (I think) other teams, to win the pennant, and The Bosox were huge underdogs, and they won, I was only 8yo but was a big fan of The “Yazz-matazz” (Carl Yaztremski), who won the Triple Crown (HRs, RBIs, Batting Avg)…Jim Lonborg…Rico Petricelli…they took The Cardinals to seven games…
The poor guy bet big, with his bookie—but they paid him in LEAD, after he started make ng noise, about his failure to get paid for his longshot….and the Bosox were big longshots in 1967….
Better to be legally than with a bookie for sure Matt. Don’t cross the Mafia or Youll end up like sleeping with the fishes, to steal a line from the Godfather.
Joe, “life happens” as they say, but I will never get used to receiving these gut punches every year on the Derby trail. I, too, was a big fan of Paladin and Class President. Their loss puts a big damper on my enjoyment of the Derby this year. Anxious to hear the results of CP’s checkup.
You know, this just might be the year that the Japanese show up in the winner’s circle. I’ll place a $10 wager on Danon Bourbon and Wonder Dean in the Pool 6 futures. Sake, anyone?
Hi Dewey – losing Paladin and then CP was definitely a knockout punch for my 2 horses that I bet on the KDFW. I like playing the KDFW because I have won in the past on such horses as California Chrome at 30-1 and Always Dreaming at 42-1. It’s fun to play the KDFW because you know you will get big odds, but the horse has to stay healthy and get the points to get in. I agree that it will be interesting to see how CP recovers and what their plans are for him after the scratch. I agree with you on the 2 Japanese horses as both see, like legit contenders. I love playing P5’s and am sure I will play one for the KY Derby even though my 2 KDFW horses were knocked off of the trail. I guess Pletcher said that CP isn’t necessarily off the trail yet, but definitely not Looking good for his derby hopes after the scratch. Good luck to you Dewey and I hope you cash some winners. Happy Easter!
Patrick Valenzuela won a race today at Turf Paradise.
Did Vic Staufer say it was “a whacker”? Yikes….
John Hancock is an AE Saturday race 8 at Kenneland.
Its race 5, not race 8.
Thanks for the heads up, Digger. I was wondering whatever happened to him. He was my play in the Louisiana Derby last year.
Hi Steve
I just finished watching the video replay of Danon Bourbon’s impressive win in the Fukurya Stakes, going 1800 meters (about 1 1/8 miles) in 1:50.90, which was a new stakes record for that race. Did you notice the deep sandy surface that they ran on? It was so deep their hoofs sunk beneath the surface. So, I’m thinking if Danon Bourbon can run over a fast track like Churchill, as he did over a track that resembled a beach, he certainly will be one of the top Derby prospects.
Thanks for pointing him out, in this Week’s Derby Rankings.
I actually pointed him out over a .month ago. A lot more info there. I describe his first two races. I think the Fukuryu track was off.
Thanks for the reply, Steve
I must have missed that comment you posted over a month ago. I’ll go back to your Week 7 Rankings and read what you had to say in the KOTD segment.
Thanks.
Japanese racing is trending up. I am going to cash in on that.
Very hopeful news on drf about NYRA and Fox associated networks increasing racing coverage and covering more tracks. Maybe even a 24 hour channel.
I was hit over the head Fri.
Napoleon Solo didnt breeze last week. Last breeze was Thurs March 19.
All we can do is wait and see if he gets in the gate. Maybe he wants him sharp and to make sure he busts out of there from the rail and not get shoved back in traffic. Whether or not it will help him win the Derby, you want to use his strength to assure he gets there. And then you can train him accordingly. Perhaps he feels he might do too much in a work and it would take the edge off him. That is just supposition with hope that all is well with him. If it wasnt I would think we would have heard something by now. Summers of all people knows how dangerous speed on the rail is at Aqueduct going 1 1/8 miles and you dont want to blow that opportunity.
Very insightful Steve. Thank you.
As I was looking at Santa Anita’s Derby day card, I couldn’t help but feel a tinge of sadness at the decline in purses compared to the other major tracks in the U.S. Here is a look at the 100 point Derby prep race days at recently run and this Saturday’s card purse values.
Date Track Total Purses No. Races Average Purse
1) 04/04 Kee $3,870,000 11 $351,818
2) 03/28 Oak $3,349,000 14 $239,286
3) 03/21 FG $3,075,000 14 $219,643
4) 03/21 TP $2,833,000 13 $217,923
5) 03/28 GP $3,043,000 14 $217,357
6) 04/04 Aqu $2,056,000 12 $171,333
7) 04/04 SA $1,505,000 12 $125,417
Baffert’s move away from California to Kentucky is a “no brainer”. Follow the money.
Oaklawn, Turfway Park, and Aqueduct have other sources than handle!! California is a communist gutter. So goes racing in that state.
Predications on the three major Derby prep races scheduled for Saturday, 4-4.
Wood Memorial, Iron Honor, (Pool 6 odds, 25-1)
Bluegrass, Further Ado, (Pool 6 odds, 15-1)
Santa Anita Derby, Potente, (Pool 6 odds, 30-1)
As I mentioned in an earlier comment, the opening odds on a few horses in Futures Pool 6 look very enticing. I’ll key horses that I like, on top with 8 or 9 underneath in $4.00 exacta wagers. In addition, I’ll place a $40.00 win wager on Potente, at 30-1. Hopefully, those odds will be close to that when the betting closes on Saturday, at 4:00 pm Eastern Time. The Santa Anita Derby is set to go off at 7:30 Eastern Time, so I’m thinking those Pool 6 odds should remain close to the opening odds, unless bettors pound some big bets on horses such as Cherokee Nation, Intrepido, Robusta and Potente.
Good luck if you place a bet or two in Futures Pool 6.
I like Great White, but am not sure he will take to dirt—his main rival, in my opinion will be Reagan’s Honor, who has been working quite well, for this, and will likely go to the early lead….
I think the only reason RH has been on the lead is because his connections didn’t want to fool around on the best horse. He closed in his debut, but I imagine he’ll stalk – unless no one wants the lead. But I doubt that’s the case – Cajun Chrome has speed, and I imagine GW would show as well since it’s unknown if he’ll handle kickback
But usually races never turn out as expected, lol
I’ve never seen this many Derby preps won by deep closers ..
This is Steve’s site. Not yours!
There is a difference between questioning one of Steve’s thoughts and criticizing him.
Steve is nice enough to give us all his unbiased opinions every year, and it is people like you who try to ruin it for the rest of us.
Your last sentence is so rude, I am glad you are being removed from the site.
By the way – it is you who is insecure and defensive.
Good Bye!
Whoa, Matthew, PLEASE…. It’s Horse Racing, where everyone has an opinion, or twenty….you state “we all know why” Steve ranked CN? The horse went 1:34 2)5, winner ng by TEN, over another one from his barn’o’plenty…THATS reason enough, to rank the horse!
I never understand why a person will take personal affront, by another man’s opinion of a HORSE RACE—I think Robusta could (maybe) spring an upset, this Saturday, and no one of my friends agrees with me…. they’re all still my friends….
I’m on Danon Bourbon at this time. He looks like a physical freak to me.
Renegade would be the horse who scares me.
Let’s see how the rest of the preps shake out.
Analyzing Further Ado as you did with all the brilliance of related former fast runners, especially the 1 1/4-mile times of Affirmed then in another analysis of a contender you mention a factor, which I believe is so important this time of year, is development. Great stuff. Thank you Mr. Haskin
Chief Wallabee…is in the picture, of the Florida Derby finish, her a half length from the top two, who were practically dead heating…The Derby is a race where you handicap the horses, like you should …but it’s a trainer’s race! Nobody better this decade than Mott….and Bob has done this a couple times…
Bob, unfortunately, has nothing this year but a couple of decent milers….we cant even figure out his best derby horse is….
He doesn’t have the horses he once did. Potente is the best, however, probably won’t prevail in Derby.
If you’re unsure about dirt…and it’s quite different than Tapeta—-why not break running, and try to wire them? If Great White barrels out of there, and handles the surface….go for it on the lead!….
The Battaglia….was a very wide trip, he just held on but he never let them pass, on the gallop out, that “tells” you he tries…
i bet him. i never thought I had a chance with that trip. dead game.
The Puma is my derby horse unless Reagan’s Honor gets in . I would love to use Cherie in the winners circle.
I think shes a great trainer…but my choice from her barn would be Golden Tempo….it seems closeres have done well on the road to the derby…rootin for her.
So Stark Contrast isnt running the the KY Derby right?
No word. He is at Churchill Downs and they likely will train him as a Derby horse and then make a decision.
Just read that the Golden Gate Fields site will be turned into a public park, a far happier fate than being transformed into a mall or a stadium for another sport. I will never stop missing that track, but I’m glad that the land will be preserved in this way.
Hi arlingtonfan
I agree, thanks for posting that information. Frankly, I somewhat surprised that the politicians in that area got it right for a change.
I just finished checking the odds in Derby Futures Pool 6, which is scheduled to open on April 2nd and close on April 4th, at 4:00 pm Eastern Time. The Wood Memorial and Bluegrass are set to go off at 3:34 and 3:22 respectively, which means the odds on the top finishers in those two races will drop significantly prior to the close of betting.
However, the Santa Anita Derby is set to go off at 7:30 Eastern Time, which is after the betting has closed in Pool 6. With that said, there are a few entrants in the SA Derby with enticing odds, IMO. Namely, Intrepido at 50-1, Robusta at 80-1, So Happy at 90-1, Cherokee Nation at 30-1 and last but not least, Potente at 30-1.
Bottom line, you’ll probably get those same odds, or close to those odds, if you bet the afore mentioned horses. I’ll box those five in a $4.00 exacta wager in Pool 6. In addition, I’ll place a $40.00 win wager on Potente, at 30-1.
Good luck if you bet horses in Pool 6.
Actually the Blue Grass and Wood go off after 6 pm Eastern Time so those results also will not impact the future pool. The 3 pm post times must be Pacific Time.
Todd, I stand corrected. You’re right, I was using Pacific Time.
In the past, the Futures Pools usually opened on Friday and closed on Sunday at 6:00 Eastern Time. I can’t remember if last year’s Pool 6 opened on Thursday and closed on Saturday, at 4:00 pm Est., which I thought was unusual.
Wow. How bad are the Cali horses. Robusta being on everyone’s ticket in the SAD pretty much sums it up.
According to the GPS chart, Puma ran 17 feet more than Commandment.
G1, Bluegrass Stakes, Post Positions.
1) Talkin, Joel Rosario
2) Class President, John Velazquez
3) Great White, Alex Achard
4) Reagan’s Honor, Jose Ortiz
5) Creole Chrome, Tyler Gaffalione
6) Further Ado, Irad Ortiz Jr.
7) Ocelli, Joseph Ramos
8) Moonstrocity, Jose Morelos
9) Ottinho, Flavien Prat
I’ll go with Further Ado for the win.
Thanks for posting this, Bill. I notice BRANT is not entered. Guess he’s not training well.
You’re welcome, Ms Blacktype
Yeah, Brant is off the Derby trail. He’s not even listed in Derby Futures Pool 6.
Baffert still has Cherokee Nation (30-1, Pool 6) and Potente (30-1, Pool 6)
…and their odds will plummet, should they run well on Sat….
Matthew W
Just to be clear, Pool 6 will close at 4:00 pm est. time, which is three and a half hours before the Santa Anita Derby is set to go off. How can you state, “their odds will plummet, should they run well on Sat.”?
I thought it closed on Sunday, my bad….we then that is a terrific price, he doesn’t have to win, THIS WEEK…I just want him to finish ..
No problem, Mathew W.
Do you know why Brant is off the derby trail? Is he injured or did Bob just decide he’s not a 1 1/4 mile horse?
I like Jhnny V on Class President.
Good luck to all
Great job with rankings as always Steve. Thank you for doing this weekly, a must read! I believe the Puma would benefit from a jockey change to Luis Saez as he is a much better finisher than JC and could be the difference when it s time to get the nose down. He’s definitely getting better at the right time and is going to be right there with a good trip.
Thanks Jay, they’re not going to take off a fellow Venezuelan who won the Derby for them.
So saddened to read of Paladin’s injury and wish him a complete recovery. Such an incredible horse. The highs and lows of this sport are unmatched.
Thanks for this analysis. Really getting down to the wire so to speak. Enjoyed every bit of info.
I have to say I thought The Puma was. Amazing in his near win and watching Renegade come down the stretch like a runaway train. What a thrill.
May they all be safe and healthy ! Still more to come this Saturday.
There are a couple of horses cross-entered in both the Wood Memorial and the Bluegrass. Ocelli & Ottinho. The Bluegrass looks like the easier spot IMO. I could be wrong.
Hi Steve
Just wondering if you will provide the Thoro-Graph numbers on Renegade’s Arkansas Derby win, and Commandment’s Florida Derby win, when they become available.
I suspect that Renegade will receive the better TG number.
Many thanks.
Renegade got a “1” and Commandment got a “4.”
Thanks for the reply, Steve
As I expected, Renegade received the better TG number.
Correct if I’m wrong, but it’s Renegade’s “1” 2nd only to Cherokee Nation’s “negative -1” ?
Thanks, Steve.
Edit: Correct me if I’m wrong but isn’t Renegade’s “1”……….
Correct.
Thanks, Steve.
OMG!! I’ve been reading your Derby Doings for the last 10 years. This was your best. Especially the info on Further Ado. Your knowledge of racing history is beyond greatness. Thank you very much.
Thank you very much John for saying that. I never know if stuff like that is appreciated. Its nice when someone acknowledges it. I thought it would be interesting. Sometimes one acknowledgement is enough.
Ottinho running in Blue Grass.
He’s cross entered in the Wood Memorial as well.
Still sticking with my 3 The Puma He looked awesome and another step forward next month and he could win it all- Golden Tempo I just still believe when he figure it all out he will be a force, don’t know if that will be at the derby but it will happen soon. Silent tactic , I still like this horse but I don’t know if he wants the to fight like I thought he did. Renegade was not on my list but you cant knock a horse that took a big step forward in the Arkansas derby.
oops sorry for the double
Mark, my opinion is The Puma is sitting on a big race.
Still sticking with my 3 The Puma He looked awesome and another step forward next month and he could win it all- Golden Tempo I just still believe when he figure it all out he will be a force, don’t know if that will be at the derby but it will happen soon. Silent tactic , I still like this horse but I don’t know if he wants the to fight like I thought he did. Renegade was not on my list but you cant knock a horse that took a big step forward in the Arkansas derby
Agree on Golden Tempo…there’s a lot to like about him….hoping he gets down to the 1st turn w/o much trouble as he needs to stay closer early on….i just feel that no matter what, he’ll be running harder than most in the final furlong….
I won’t be wagering on Cherokee Nation this Saturday, I may not bet the race…maybe a small wager on Robusta …I like Potente in the Kentucky Derby, and will be putting up a solid wager on him…
Cherokee Nation ran a 100 Beyer, for that 1:34 2/5 race, I think that number is too low, you aren’t going to see another 1:34 2/5 mile this or next year, at Santa Anita! I get why people don’t like his ranking being higher than stakes winners, but he ran a race that would best every horse on the list—but he only ran it once, his other races put him out of the exacta, nobody said Horse Racing is easy!..
Hopefully Incredibolt can do it, I am breeding my young filly to bolt this season, her sire is Omaha Beach, her name is Jemma G, comes from a very successfully dam that I bought for a dollar, Congaree Princess, died of a heart attack carrying a Jackie’s warrior foal in Nov. 2025, her progeny, GALERIO, BELLA BETTINA , JASIEL, JEMMA G, hurt her ankle as a two year!
Sorry about your mare, but good luck with the mating .
Renegade performance was a WOW just hope he didn’t run best race at Oaklawn. I will pass on him in the derby thinking he may bounce off that performance. My lean currently is Emerging Market, Potente and Napoleon Solo ( Still hopeful but Saturday put up or shut up.)
Apology accepted. Thinking just as Further Ado was flattered by The Puma’s performance so too was Great White after the Fulleffort Jeff Ruby win. Looks like Ennis has the Uncle Mo gelding acclimated to the Keeneland surface with a nice 47.60 work on Sunday.
Confident GH will acclimate to dirt.
Life Is Good, Corniche, and Hjghly Motivated have runners Friday in race 1 at Keeneland. Our first 2 year old race of the year. Corniche’s is a colt, the other 2 are fillies. Wesley Ward as the Life is Good and Corniche runners.
Surprised by many comments throughout this series. Any schmoe on the street corner can adequately rank horses based on past performance. This series is titled “2026 Kentucky Derby Rankings.” The writer is attempting to envision the running of the Kentucky Derby based on what he’s seen of the potential field and what their best efforts might be on May 2.
It’s not just a list, either. It helps to read all those words between the numerals. So it’s one long-time Derby historian and analyst’s opinion. That’s all….folks.
Well said, Mike!
I think Reagan’s Honor is going to run huge, and will shock everyone on this board except Steve, lol
I appreciate that.
Well said. There’s a difference between disagreeing and being disagreeable. Tone matters.
Todd, a few behave as if they have a monopoly here.
Steve, I love your work and you’ve given it your all, as usual, on the Derby trail this year. That said, I’m taking this week’s rankings with a grain of salt. Which of us knows who will step up to the plate in the coming last weekend of preps? In my personal list, I downgraded horses that HAVE to win points in favor of those already who are already in the race. I’d love for the lightly raced Reagan’s Honor or even Cherokee Nation to make the race, but I’m not confident they can win or show this weekend and THEN make noise on the first Saturday in May. Maybe this is the year the Japanese take home the roses.
Thanks from the bottom of my heart for all you do.
I have no set rules. Rich Strike, Mage, and .Mystik Dan all needed points, as did Justify, Always Dreaming, Nyquist etc. Before points it was earnings.
Mr. Haskin, appreciate the work regarding composing Derby lists- as well as year round. It doesn’t go unnoticed. Thanks!
Thanks very much Mike
Steve, I just discovered that Reagan’s Honor will have four starts going into the Derby, should he run first or second in Blue Grass — including one at 2. I think I’m beginning to understand your thinking in this column a little better now. It’s certainly a provocative list. As usual, you’ll face another challenging writeup next week. My bet is that there will still be more questions than answers about most of these horses.
Thanks again for all your hard work. I really appreciate it.
Santa Anita Derby
A relatively short field has entered the SA Derby, but it appears to be a very competitive race. Despite Cherokee Nation receiving a “negative -1” Thoro-Graph number for maiden win, I’m not sold on this Not This Time colt. I have my doubts that he’ll replicate that form in the Santa Anita Derby. In other words, I expect a big fat bounce.
I’ll go with the Into Mischief colt, Potente, to hit the wire first.
The post positions are as follows.
1) Cherokee Nation
2) Potente
3) Vitruvian Man
4) Robusta
5) So Happy
6) Start the Ride
7) Intrepido
The colt that I fear most is Intrepido.
Safe trips to all.
A few weeks back I posted the question: “Could Intrepido be the best CA horse?”
Well, now is his chance to step up..:that other trainer with all those expensive horses doesn’t seem to have much…
As I’ve stated for past two years.
You’ve been on it for sure, Mike…things have changed in that barn…..yet many bettors continue to pound his horses at the betting windows….if one of his horses shows up with only three legs they will bet him all the more…
Thanks Dom! Yes, as always wash/ rinse/ repeat. And we hear familiar phrase always, “ barn loaded”.
I apologize. Read article on this tiny cellphone.
Guess my eyes played a trick on me.
Lynda:
You definitely are not alone: with my advanced age and bad vision, sometimes it is impossible too see cell phone screen!
Thanks Biggy.
Lynda, have you considered getting one of those new cheapo Apple Neos? At least they don’t cost thousands like a MacBook Pro.
Lammtarra won the 1 mile and a half Epsom Derby in his 2nd career start coming off of a 10 month layoff. That didn’t change how people view England’s premiere 3yo classic event and If Emerging Market wins this year’s Kentucky Derby, it won’t change how we look at America’s most prestigious race either. We return to our regularly scheduled handicapping.
England isn’t America. Different game. Lamtarra then won the King George and the arc in his 3rd and 4th start. If you dont mind havicapping the Derby with horses having 2 starts thats fine. I like to know the horses a little more. If he wins everyone will do it. As I said, what you apparently missed is the Derby will always be the Derby. I can accept something without liking it. If that’s OK with you.
“If he wins everyone will do it.” This is where I disagree, Mr. Haskins. If you read Chad Brown’s comments after his La Derby win, you’ll see that him only having 2 starts at this juncture was not intentional. This is truly a one-off situation. He was being prepared as a 2yo and things kept coming up. Once he finally got going and was ready in February, the 97 Beyer, 5 1/2 Thorograph figure changed everything. I respect your wanting for a true historical foundation heading into the Kentucky Derby, but there are aberrations. We’ll see how it plays out. Appreciate your love of the sport.
Its not so much the intention, its actually doing it. Granted he won, but going into the 1 3/16 .mile Louisiana Derby off one maiden win shows they had the Derby in mind. Trainers and owners today think that way as opposed to years ago but I do admit years ago are gone. Does anyone really have any idea how this horse will run? As a handicapper you like to have more information and fewer questions.
I wonder how many horses that had as few as say….FOUR races, before The Derby….ran with success as four year olds?…Taiba got hurt in Saudi Arabia …Big Brown got hurt….Justify got hurt …it’s still a short list, but as you said it’s soon going to be something everyone does, I don’t think it’s the PLAN, per say…but owners/trainers are far more likely to run in the Derby off of four…three…TWO starts! Shirreffs had Derby success, he ran horses in The Derby, but that trainer was not going to rush one into the Kentucky Derby….
(somehow my “name” became “Wwayb”, and I haven’t figured out how to fix that back to “W”)..
Also I’ll Have Another got hurt….
(I fixed my name! Had to click off the “save my name” feature, then fix it and click it back on, my sight problems messed it up!..)…..
I understand your frustration with Emerging Market not having a more detailed report card to handicap as we head towards Churchill Downs, but ever so often this is the hand that we’re dealt. May the best horse with the 2026 Kentucky Derby.
Thats all that is important.
Trying to reconcile how a horse who has won a fast maiden race and a 1 3/16 stakes against multiple stakes winners is rated below Cherokee and Regan. As the kids say, make it make sense. If you’re using the old school argument of too few starts, etc than it doesn’t wash with the maiden winners being ahead of Emerging Market. At the end of the day it’s not a big deal and it’s Steve’s list …he can rate Cherokee Nation number 1 if he chooses. Just trying to understand the rationale and how he got there…?
Ok I-ll switch them next week. Reconcile?
Yes- reconcile works very well in this sentence. Great job dodging the issue.
Its your issue not mine.
I do appreciate all comments even disagreement. But we all have different criteria in ranking horses, which is and should be subjective.
Just to clarify, the Rankings aren’t based simply on what a horse has done. It is also about speculation. Without speculating once in a while the Rankgs would be quite boring. You cant be afraid to be wrong.
Steve
That’s what I like best about your rankings . You give your opinion on the 2 things that matter . How they are all doing as the preps get longer and your opinion on what they may do going 11/4 miles . I handicap each prep for what it is . Then I switch gears and handicap 11/4 miles for each entrant .
Thanks
Thanks Chris.
Got it. That’s an honest answer. Appreciate it.
If we weren’t willing to take a little risk — financially or emotionally — none of us would follow horse racing. That’s the whole point of the sport.
I’m glad that John Velasquez is retaining the mount on Class President. CP has speed and is tactical and will get the jump on the many quality closers in the KY Derby. The Swale seems to have sharpened CP, who is using that Uncle Mo speed to get forward and can stalk and is not a need to lead horse. He’s in good hands literally with JV guiding him. I’m expecting a strong performance from CP in the Bluegrass. Hopefully Class President will wear the garland of roses 🌹 after the running of the KY Derby. I’m glad that Paladin will be ok after his injury, but sad that he’s off of the derby trail. The fact that he beat Renegade by 2 lengths going away in the Remsen is a testament to his talent.
I feel the same way, Joe. Retaining Johnny V. in the irons gives me a sense of full confidence that I might not have had with another rider who doesn’t know Class President like Johnny does. I like that Todd has been “easy” on CP after his hard- fought win in the Rebel. He’s given him a couple of works to retain his fitness but didn’t overdo it. The Blue Grass is CP’s to lose but as long as he gives a good effort and gets something out of the race, that’s all I can ask for. After all, it’s that race at 6:30 pm. on May 1st, that we want him to be at his best, no?
It’s going to be a long 4 weeks from the Blue Grass to the Derby with fingers crossed and a few hail mary’s hoping that our boy stays healthy. Then, again, I guess that anxiety would be true for most punters, each with our favorites. Bubble wrap, please!
Well said Dewey. Looking forward to Class President on SAT, then onto the KY Derby with John Velasquez.
Steve, I want to thank you for all the hard work you put into doing your Ky. Derby reviews and rankings. Absolutely fantastic work! Your Ky. Derby rankings are the best around, and I sincerely mean that too. Nobody even comes close! Thank you Steve, great job.
I wouldn’t discount Bill Mott too much at having the knowledge to have his colt peak at just the right time, while coming out of the final turn and into the stretch of the Ky. Derby. Mott has never been the type of trainer who hurries his horse’s along, or let’s a owner with a bad case of Derby fever pressure him into enteribga horse in the 20 horse Calvary charge, just to get a box seat at Churchill Downs on Derby Day.
Chief Wallabee is a very serious Ky. Derby horse who the ultra sly trainer Bill Mott will have primed, locked, and loaded to run his best race on the first Saturday in May.
Thank you very much. I never discount. Mott. I couldn’t figure out who to put him ahead of.
Despite Iron Honor’s outside draw in the Wood Memorial, his impressive early speed should put him in contention going into the first turn. By Kentucky Derby winner, Nyquist, out of a Blame mare, Iron Honor’s pedigree reflects speed, class and stamina on top and on the bottom, IMO. He’s in the capable hands of Chad Brown and with Manny Franco in the irons, I like his chances to win the Wood Memorial.
In Pool 3, I keyed Commandment, (23-1) on top, with Iron Honor, 60-1 underneath in an exacta wager.
Safe trips to all.
after that move by Renegade , every trainer now realizes they need steal the derby! or so i think.
I also like Renegade, but, like with any other colt, he has his faults, imo, the one thing, a concern I guess, is his running style. A dead closer can be challenging in the 20 horse Calvary charge on Derby Day. He needs a little more luck, or, flip it around, and can’t be unlucky, by coming around 19 other horse’s. While not impossible, and it does happen, just that type of running style, a dead closer, does cause me some worries. There is no doubt though, Renegade is extremely talented and fast! The quick turn of foot he exhibited in the Arkansas Derby was one of the best we witnessed this year.
Express Kid is out of the SA Derby after spiking a fever. I’m disappointed.
I wouldn’t discount Bill Mott too much at having the knowledge to have his colt peak at just the right time, while coming out of the final turn and into the stretch of the Ky. Derby. Mott has never been the type of trainer who hurries his horse’s along, or let’s a owner with a bad case of Derby fever pressure him into enteribga horse in the 20 horse Calvary charge, just to get a box seat at Churchill Downs on Derby Day.
Chief Wallabee is a very serious Ky. Derby horse who the ultra sly trainer Bill Mott will have primed, locked, and loaded to run his best race on the first Saturday in May.
Agreed!
…and unlike some trainers, Bill Mott will not be in the starting gate come May 2 unless The Chief has an honest to God legit chance of winning.:..that you can count on!
Yes, he’s consistent year in and out with his approach.
The weather forecasts for both Aqueduct and Keeneland have improved for Saturday.
Call me crazy, but I’m actually thinking about playing Aqueduct on Saturday. Sure, the first half of the card has short 6 and 7horse fields. But the second half of the program looks pretty good with a big field lining up for the Wood Memorial. Two of the top contenders have drawn extreme inside and outside posts. Big price coming??? Could be.
I won’t have to worry about a soggy turf course at Aqueduct because they delayed the opening of their turf course this Spring. Like Oaklawn, all dirt racing.
Still, I better wait and see what The Bluegrass looks like when they draw entries tomorrow. Looking like another short field. Does Keeneland dig up field fillers like Gulfstream and Santa Anita? No offense with that last comment.
Commandment had to pass them all and he did it. He had kind of a weird trip himself. Seeming to back out of it for a while before kicking it into high gear. When some of his opponents were running fastest after setting slow fractions.
Do I continue to underestimate The Puma? Absolutely. I was wrong about him.
But I think I’m right about Silent Tactic. Renegade looked terrific winning the Arkansas Derby. But I don’t like what he left in his wake. I expected big things from Litmus Test. Wrong again. He looked lost in space on Saturday. I’ve seen enough of that guy. No offense, bet he better hightail it back to Los Alamitos.
I’m not giving up on “The Chief”. I love the looks of that guy. He was right there at the finish. Frankly, to me he looks more like a distance horse than Commandment.
Nearly was on a soft pace and couldn’t hold off Commandment, “The Chief”, and The Puma. Very disappointing to me.
BTW, I wouldn’t let a rail draw dissuade me from betting on Renegade in the Derby. He has the right running style to actually capitalize on the #1 post. And I think that he is better than Lookin’ at Lee. Who couldn’t quite get there.
I still think that this year’s Derby has the potential to produce a longshot winner and a big price. But maybe Renegade will have something to say about that.
Great stuff, Steve!
Reagan isn’t a speed horse despite his last two wins – I think his connections just didn’t want to mess around on the next horse
He’s very tractable, so I do think he’ll be in a stalking position unless no one wants the lead
I really think he’s a genuinely good horse…now here is his first big class test
Hi Steve
Thank you for providing another great in-depth analysis on your current top Derby prospects. I certainly agree with you on ranking Renegade at #1, he checks a lot of boxes moving forward to Derby Day. I like what you had to say about Into Mischief and his promising colts on the Derby trail. Yesterday, I posted my top 12 Derby prospects, and with the exception of Potente, I have 11 in your top 20.
Just for clarification, in your comment on Renegade, you stated, “but you sure can’t say that Renegade didn’t earn the No. 1 spot and wouldn’t have taken it away from Paladin anyway after that bravura performance in the Arkansas Derby”. Did you mean he “would” have taken it away anyway?
Thanks for all you do, Steve, it’s much appreciated.
No, wouldn’t is correct. Read it again and you’ll see.
Thanks for the reply, Steve
So, are you stating that if Paladin had not sustained his recent injury, he would have remained at #1, despite Renegade’s Arkansas Derby performance?
Thanks.
He beat him twice…
Renegade beat Paladin in their maiden race but was disqualified and placed 2nd. I continue to believe his disqualification was unwarranted.
That’s what he is saying.
Just wondering if you make a habit of answering questions that are directed to Steve Haskin? Has Steve appointed you to answer questions on his behalf? Doubtful.
Comment below meant for you.
It’s an open forum…talk about whatever you want…are you the moderator?
No .I will try to explain it to you. You sure CAN’T say he DIDNT deserve No. 1 and you CAN’T say he WOULDN’T have taken it away from Paladin anyway even if Paladin didnt get hurt. Say it out loud. You are just concentrating on the wouldn’t and ignoring the can’t before it. If Johnny hadnt hurt his arm pitching the ball I Can’t say Biilly wouldn’t have hit a home run anyway.
Thanks for the clarification, Steve.
I understand the meaning of your comment now.
This is why I read writers work and not try and get others to read my work .
Thanks Steve
Back to my teaching days (with a smile). Two negatives make a positive. Steve said, “You CAN’T say that Renegade DIDN’T earn” the Number 1 spot; therefore, you CAN say that he DID earn it. And if you CAN’T say that he WOULDN’T have taken it away from Paladin, anyway, then you CAN say that he WOULD have. So I believe what Steve said is that Renegade was going to move to Number 1 no matter what, even if Paladin had not been injured. I agree.
Apparently, we were both responding at the same time. I had not seen your post, and I apologize for saying the same thing.
Thanks Jiffy. I like your explanation better. Two negatives make a positive.
That’s the way I first interpreted Steve’s comment.
So we’ve all gor it right–at this point, Renegade CAN and WOULD and SHOULD be Number 1!
EXACTLY.
I have a nice Future on Renegade & some big exactas wagers as well. If he runs like he did Saturday in the Derby he’ll be tough to beat IMO. Like Steve I was high on Further Ado & Incredibolt early on & have no idea about which Cherokee Nation shows up now but have wagers on all of these generous pays. Several other runners on this list here as well but not confident they can cash me any tickets in the exactas will see at least they in the race. Sadly lost out with Palladin may he recover quickly.
Steve I thought about Mage and Puma, too! Puma did the wet work, in Florida, he put away Nearly….and he sits close to the pace….
You mentioned Taiba, who changed barns and was rushed into The Derby–and that year had a wicked fast pace, he split the field, I thought Taiba was a good horse, I think Potente has a similar pattern if not a bit easier…Bob puts them thru hard works, I’m not worried about fitness….
Robusta is interesting! Is he another O’Neill colt that has turned the corner, or was the San Felipe a one race wonder? I thought he ran best, that day….
Agree with you about Renegade, he looked like a Derby Favorite….
Steve I 5hink you meant Chief Wallabee not Chief Commander?
I dont know whst youre referring to
Where did he ever say Chief Commander?