2026 Kentucky Derby Rankings – Week 12
It seems as if we were just welcoming everyone to Week 1 of the Derby Rankings. A great deal has happened since, and here we are welcoming you to the final Rankings list. Right now it looks as if the top 5 or 6 have separated themselves from the others. We could have juggled around the top 4 after the Blue Grass, but they are so close we just decided to leave the order the way it was and let them settle it. Also, because it is the final Rankings we have reverted back to our long-winded comments, at least on the top-ranked horses. And we have focused on the Thoro-Graph numbers from the previous week because they were quite revealing, and added a major part of Knocking on the Door to the Brisnet pace figures. We also felt a lot of readers would be interested in getting a closer and more personal look at No. 1 Renegade, so we have devoted the whole opening of Knocking on the Door to discussing his background. Finally, remember, we will have a Pros and Cons on each horse column on April 27 of Derby Week. In the meantime stay tuned for our bonus Derby Rankings-related columns in the next two weeks that will combine this year’s Derby horses with some historical perspective, as well as bloodlines. ~ Steve Haskin
Derby Rankings: April 6, 2026 – Week 12
By Steve Haskin
1. Renegade (Todd Pletcher, Into Mischief — Spice is Nice, by Curlin)
Everything about this horse is now bordering on flawless. Some have mentioned him ducking out after turning for home in in the Arkansas Derby. I don’t know for sure why he did it, but after staightening out into the stretch, you can see Ortiz pull hard on the right rein and the colt jerk his head to the right and duck out. After that he ran straight the rest of the way. If you’re looking for a Thoro-Graph pattern that is as close to perfect as you’re going to find, you just might have found it. Following his maiden victory and huge jump from a “14” to a “7,” which is always what you want to see coming off a maiden race, his numbers have gone forward by two points in every race, which again is what you want to see rather take huge leaps and then possibly “bouncing” off them. You want that steady progression that mirrors his actual improvement. So when you see him go from a “7” to a “5” to a “3” to a “1,” it is not only how you would design a perfect pattern, it puts him in position to run a potential “negative-1” in the Derby, and so far I’m not sure anyone is capable of matching that. Again, this is just an analytical prediction of what he looks to be capable of based on his pattern. Add that to his pedigree, running style, powerful closing kick, visual and statistical improvement, and his easy-going temperament, and it strongly suggests we’re looking at the quintessential Derby horse. We now have an idea of what this horse is, but being the logical Derby favorite, it is also good to know who he is, especially how he will stand up to the pressures of the Derby. And for that you only have to go down below to Knocking on the Door, where we delve into his background and take a look at him through the eyes of those who have been close to him.
2. The Puma (Gustavo Delgado, Essential Quality — Eve of War, by Declaration of War)
As expected he did receive a faster Thoro-Graph number than the winner in the Florida Derby, and it was a full 1 1/2 points faster, obviously due to his wide trip throughout. We have all seen what this colt is capable of and how tough and resilient he is, having crammed in four starts, three stakes, and two gut-wrenching finishes in about 2 1/2 months, and with no 2-year-old foundation. And he has never had anything even close to a perfect trip. In his debut going seven furlongs at Gulfstream, he broke slowly and was rushed up to take the lead on the turn, and finished a game second to none other than Chief Wallabee, finishing 9 1/4 lengths ahead of the third horse. That effort earned him a strong “4 1/4” Thoro-Graph number. Stretching out to two turns in the Sam Davis at Tampa Bay, he was stuck in traffic in the stretch, and by the time he broke free, Renegade was gone. He regressed to an “8” in that race, but rebounded with a “4” winning the Tampa Bay Derby and jumped to a “2 1/2” in his nose defeat in the Florida Derby. So, even including his maiden race, he has faced Chief Wallabee in his first start, Renegade in his second start, Further Ado and Canaletto in his third start, and Commandment, Chief Wallabee, and Nearly in his fourth start, the last off only three weeks. And he keeps improving. It is the competition he has faced that squeezes him into the No. 2 slot. Now he gets five weeks to the Derby in the more than capable hands of Gustavo Delgado, who worked wonders with Mage, who also had no 2-year-old foundation. Bet against Delgado and The Puma at your own risk.
3. Commandment (Brad Cox, Into Mischief — Sippican Harbor, by Orb)
No one fits the bill as a true Thoroughbred more than this colt. It is intimidating before a race to know that, no matter who is in the field, your main priority is trying to figure out a way to beat him. From a pure handicapping standpoint he has a very ambiguous Thoro-Graph pattern. He was steadily moving forward with every race before pairing up “4’s” in the Florida Derby. On one hand, you like to see a horse pair up a career-best number, signifying a new top number is coming up. In his case, his “4” was a full point and a half slower than the horse he defeated (The Puma), who earned a “2 1/2,” and he will have to make a significant move forward to get within range of a typical Derby-winning number. With that said, it has to be remembered that speed ratings are merely handicapping tools and do not always predict how far a top-class horse is capable of moving forward on the first Saturday in May. Although nine Derby winners since 2009 have won with a “zero” or negative number, we have had five win with a “1 1/2” or “1 1/4.” But in those years, only two horses — 80-1 Rich Strike and 50-1 Mine That Bird — have won coming off a number as slow as a “4.” Again, these are just statistics from a Thoro-Graph viewpoint, and being we have used those numbers every year, we would be remiss not mentioning them with a horse who will be one of the favorites and is atop many lists. The bottom line is, he is a proven winner and surely would be deserving of wearing the blanket of roses. We have been writing about his many strengths since Week 1 and they still apply.
4. Further Ado (Brad Cox, Gun Runner — Sky Dreamer, by Sky Mesa)
The difference between No. 1 and 4 is minuscule. After Saturday, the good news is that the Breeders’ Cup is at Keeneland this year where he has won his last two starts by a combined 31 lengths. The bad news is that the Kentucky Derby is run at Churchill Downs. The good news is he won the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs. The bad news is that his victory in the Kentucky Jockey Club wasn’t nearly as impressive as his runaway victories at Keeneland. The good news is his jockey Irad Ortiz has three wins and a second aboard him. The bad news is that Ortiz also rides Renegade for Todd Pletcher, for whom he has been the go-to rider for several years. The good news is he has impeccable breeding, which we wrote about last week. The bad news for Spendthrift Farm is he isn’t by their phenom stallion Into Mischief. The good news is that Spendthrift wanted this victory badly to make him a Grade 1 winner. The bad news is the possibility his victory was too impressive and he ran his peak performance. Put all the good and the bad together and what you come up with is a horse who most likely doesn’t need Keeneland, doesn’t need to win his races by double-digit margins, doesn’t need Irad Ortiz, doesn’t need to be by Into Mischief, and did not run his peak performance in the Blue Grass. The truth is his Kentucky Jockey Club victory was a race in which he had to regress coming off that other-worldy maiden score and did and still won by open lengths. And his first start this year over a quirky Tampa surface and off a 3 1/2-month layoff was a perfect prep to get him fit and tough, leaving him plenty of room to demolish his opponents in the Blue Grass and still have plenty left for the Derby. So, in short, what we are saying is there is no bad news.
5. Chief Wallabee (Bill Mott, Constitution — A la Lucie, by Medaglia d’Oro)
Could it be the key to this horse is something so inconsequential, most people never saw it? Let me say that I have to give him and jockey Junior Alvarado credit for having the audacity to try to out-gallop Commandment after the wire, something no horse has ever done. Alvarado actually looked back at Flavien Prat on Commandment as if to offer a challenge and even came out and brushed with Commandment, which you never see during a gallop-out. Was that a sign that Mott wanted a strong, dare I say competitive, gallop-out because the colt still wasn’t quite primed for a peak effort. He still looked unsure of himself in the stretch, weaving in and out a bit as if he is still in the learning process. OK, now for a little levity, as it is the final Derby Rankings. We all know that Mott looks at prep races as appetizers and his mind is always on the main course. Since this colt burst on the scene I haven’t been able to get this song out of my head, and now that the lyrics have meaning I am going to put the song in your head as well, assuming you’re over 50. With apologies to Rolf Harris for changing his lyrics slightly, here goes: “Watch Chief Wallabee feed, mate; Watch Chief Wallabee feed; He’s a dangerous breed, mate; So watch Chief Wallabee feed…all together now.” Yes, the Derby is the main course for Chief Wallabee and by then he could be ready to feed. I still prefer more than three starts, but it sure would not surprise me if he steps up and turns into the “dangerous breed” we’ve always thought he was. Perhaps that challenge and brush after the Florida Derby was a bit more telling than it would seem. I have mentioned a few minor issues I have with him visually, but I did say after his maiden win he is everything I look for in a Derby horse, so I will have that in the back of my mind when I get down to serious handicapping. And if he gets beat, well, you can “Tan me hide when I’m dead, Fred.”
6. Emerging Market (Chad Brown, Candy Ride — Wild Empress, by Empire Maker)
As you will see in Knocking on the Door, it could be that he is not like other horses in that he could be capable of doing things that horses are not supposed to do. I guess it is time to open my eyes and see what is there right in front of me, whether it makes sense or not. Regarding having only two starts, we will just let history play itself out, as it did for Big Brown (winning with three starts) and Justify (winning with three starts and none at 2, ending the dreaded Apollo Curse). If he can win the Derby with two starts and none at 2, he will be the first horse in history to do so. Leonatus won with only two starts in 1883, but did have a race at 2. The history books obviously have more empty pages waiting to be filled than they used to. Also if he does win, we will have to decide whether he is some freakishly gifted horse, which is possible, or this crop of 3-year-olds is not as strong as we hoped. That is still to be decided. I don’t want to keep concentrating on what might be rather than what is, so I am going to say, based on his Thoro-Graph numbers he has a brief, but excellent pattern, and no reason why he shouldn’t keep moving forward. On the other hand, from a typical handicapping viewpoint, we have to remember that the horse he narrowly beat in his career debut came back and ran poorly and the horse he defeated by a head in the Louisiana Derby was 210-1 in the last Future Wager and likely will be a big longshot at Churchill Downs. So do the pluses outweigh the minuses? We just don’t have enough information yet to know. But he does look special. In the meantime, let’s hope if he wins the Derby he is another Leonatus, who would go on to win all 10 of his starts as a 3-year-old…in the span of 49 days. Yes, times do change.
7. Danon Bourbon (Ikezoe Manabu, Maxfield — Wild Ridge by Tapit)
Considering how high I was on him back in the March 3 Rankings, and how much I respect the Japanese horses, I sure am not going to miss the boat if he turns out to be the Queen Mary 2. If he intrigues you as much as he has intrigued me since I watched his first two races, the best thing about his Thoro-Graph numbers is that we don’t have any, at least not yet. The numbers in general of this year’s Derby horses are far from overwhelming, with most of the top horses still moving forward and others needing a fairly big jump to reach the typical Derby-winning number. So with this horse we can just pretend for now his numbers reflect the dominance of his performances and his other attributes, such as his rapid acceleration and the length and power of his stride. Sure you can question who he beat, but we do that every year with the Japanese runners. And you can say that his 3 1/2-length victory in the Fukuryu Stakes was a bit tougher than his first two races. But to address both those concerns, the horse he had to catch and eventually put away, Don Erectus, actually was good enough to tie him in overall points in the Japanese Road to the Derby Series, having already finished a good second in two of the stakes in the series, the Cattleya Stakes and Hyacinth Stakes, and was coming off an impressive victory in a weight-for-age race. Also, the third-place finisher in the Fukuryu, with the endearing name Charlie, was actually the overnight favorite, coming off a resounding 10-length victory over the Nakayama track. So this was the toughest field he’s faced and he still drew off to an emphatic score. This is a colt by a top-class American sire, out of a Tapit mare, and is inbred to A.P. Indy, Storm Cat, Mr. Prospector, and to Fappiano three times. He also has Triple Crown winners Secretariat, Seattle Slew, Affirmed, and the last British Triple Crown winner Nijinsky in his pedigree.
8. Fulleffort (Brad Cox, Liam’s Map — Callmethesqueeze, by Awesome Again)
I find this colt very intriguing and he keeps growing on me. I’ve said I want to see how he works at Churchill Downs and his first work, a half in :48 4/5, was well received. Cox said he handled the dirt fine. He was well in hand and did it easily; just what they were looking for. Works don’t necessarily tell you everything you want to know, but with him it can at least give you some indication of how he is handling the dirt, and so far, so good. The Churchill Downs strip has always been kind to grass horses and we have seen recently how well horses have run in the Derby coming off Turfway’s synthetic surface. I don’t know what he did or didn’t do to convince Cox to immediately put him on grass and then synthetic. He obviously wasn’t handling the dirt the way Cox would have liked. But that was way back early last summer and we all know how much young horses can change. If you look at his Thoro-Graph numbers, his last three are “10 1/2″…”7 3/4″…”3 1/2.” That indicates a horse simply improving three and four points each race, and his pedigree does suggest that should apply to dirt. So it’s just a question of whether he is a far better horse on dirt now than he was some nine months ago. It just may be worth it at the price to take a shot that he is. From a visual standpoint, I see a horse with beautiful action and a powerhouse stretch run who can put himself in striking position at the top of the stretch and kick home strongly. I just don’t think from what I’ve seen I can let him beat me at a big price.
9. Golden Tempo (Cherie Devaux, Curlin — Carrumba, by Bernardini)
Could it be this all but forgotten colt is actually sneaky good and has been playing possum in his last two defeats? Sometimes you have to look inside the crevices to find what you’re looking for. When DeVaux first got him he already had the reputation for being kind of slow and she knew she would have to give him time, and with his pedigree, wait for the distances to stretch out before we would see him at his best. So, going into his career debut going six furlongs, DeVaux was only hoping to see him close ground in the stretch. But he rallied from 10th and blew by the field in the stretch to win by 1 1/2 lengths in a solid 1:10 3/5. He then followed that up by stretching out to 1 1/16 miles and winning the LeComte Stakes. So far, everything was way ahead of schedule, but when put against better quality horses in the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby he failed to unleash that same powerful closing kick, but still finished third both times. Now, having dropped down everyone’s list, we take a closer look and see that his first three Thoro-Graph numbers were “7 3/4,” “7 3/4,” and “7.” Solid and consistent, but going nowhere. Then came the 1 3/16-mile Louisiana Derby with the addition of blinkers, and despite a very odd stretch run, in which he was abrupty steered to the inside some six paths while making his run and losing a good deal of momentum, he still was beaten only a length by the highly regarded Emerging Market. I don’t know if he could have won had he stayed on his path, but horses rarely win doing what he did to that extent. But the sneaky part is that his Thoro-Graph numbers shot from a “7” to a “2 1/2.” So is he actually right on schedule to peak on Derby Day, as I expect another move forward? He has six weeks now and the 1 1/4-mile distance he’s been wanting.
10. Silent Tactic (Mark Casse, Tacitus — Magical Sign, by Gun Runner)
I admit I might have sold him short in last week’s Rankings after he had no answer for Renegade’s powerrful stretch run, putting up no resistance. You don’t normally see a strong closer like him get passed that quickly. His job has always been to run horses down, and he looked more like a tiring speed horse when Renegade whizzed by him inside the eighth pole. The questions you have to ask are, did he simply regress the tougher the competition got? Is he one of those horses who always runs his race, but finds a way to come in second more often than find a way to win? I have watched his races again and in my opinion it is neither of those. I believe this is a horse whose big weapon is a strong quarter of a mile run, and that strong run has twice in a row now been used in the wrong quarter. Instead of using it in the final quarter mile, as he did in his Southwest victory and even in his second-place finish in the Smarty Jones, in which the absurdly slow pace did him in, he was asked for that big run the previous quarter, from the half-mile pole to the quarter pole. There is no way this horse should be challenging for the lead at the top of the stretch. This is where he should be unleashing his move. As a result, in the final, and most important, quarter he had already fired his best shot and we were watching what was left of it down the stretch. That may be the reason why he couldn’t put away Class President and why he had little left when Renegade made his big move. It surely can’t be stamina with his pedigree. I would really like to see him just take back and wait, move up gradually on the turn to put himself in a striking, not challenging, position and then let loose turning for home.
11. Pavlovian (Doug O’Neill, Pavel — Mandy’s Grace, by Bellamy Road)
Could he actually be the only speed in the Derby? The thought of him being a factor has never entered my mind. Then I keep watching the Louisiana Derby, and turning for home there was no reason to think he wasn’t going to get swallowed up by the closers, especially after he had just battled on the lead the whole way through testing fractions of :46 1/5 and 1:10 4/5 and the 2-1 favorite Emerging Market already collaring him. But he just wouldn’t go away, running eyeball to eyeball with Emerging Market the entire length of the stretch while holding off the late-running Golden Tempo. In the end he fell a head short, but galloped out stronger than anyone, and this after running hard for 1 3/16 miles. Am I trying to convince myself this horse has suddenly been transformed into a Kentucky Derby contender? I honestly have no idea where all this is coming from after a mediocre at best career against Cal-breds, running Thoro-Graph numbers between “12” and “17.” Now here he is going into the Derby off a “3 3/4.” How strange has this year’s Derby trail been? How often do you see two horses battling down the stretch to the wire in a Grade 1 Derby prep, one a 21-1 shot with nine career starts and the other the 2-1 favorite with only one career start? As far as getting the mile and a quarter, he’s already run huge at 1 3/16 miles, and how could he not handle 10 furlongs with a sire who traces to Colonel Of and a dam who traces to Bayou Bourg? Yes, I was being facetious. As we said, it’s been a strange Derby trail.
12. Potente (Bob Baffert, Into Mischief — Sweet Sting, by Awesome Again)
It’s still too early for me to digest just what we are dealing with in regard to these topsy-turvy California 3-year-olds who just keep beating each other. You never know if one is going to finish first or last. I have no idea how good or bad the Santa Anita Derby was, but I am leaving the door wide open to study this colt and the so-called sprinter So Happy. What I do like about Potente other than his $2.4 million price tag, is that I don’t think for a second he wanted to be on the lead, and certainly not battling head and head with an up-and-down horse he barely caught in the final stride of the San Felipe Stakes. Then again I didn’t think Medina Spirit was capable of wiring the field in the 2021 Kentucky Derby. When Baffert wants the lead he usually gets it. I doubt he wanted it on Saturday, but when his stablemate Cherokee Nation again blew a race coming out of the gate, he wound up there and in a dogfight the entire way through some testing fractions. I realize the horse who outran him in the stretch has always been regarded mistakenly as a sprinter, but I can see Potente taking back in the Kentucky Derby and being a factor with three strong races under him. But to repeat, with Cherokee Nation self destructing again, Intrepido coming up empty, and Robusta running another of his clunkers, I just cannot tell how strong the first two finishers are. But Potente stretching out to 1 1/4 miles after taking all the worst it on Saturday, and needing the race, gets a slight advantage moving forward.
13. So Happy (Mark Glatt, Runhappy — So Cunning, by Blame)
If you are not aware of the emotional story behind Glatt this year, you will by the time we get to the Kentucky Derby. As I mentioned with Potente, I am clueless what to do with the California horses, especially this colt, who admittedly looked awfully good in the Santa Anita Derby, which was a big improvement from his solid, but nothing special, third-place finish in the San Felipe Stakes. I put him just behind Potente because he had a much better, near perfect, trip in the Santa Anita Derby. But he did take advantage of it. I guess the thought of a son of Runhappy winning the Derby needs a while to sink in, especially since the one-time Claiborne Farm stallion who resided in Secretariat’s stall is now in South Korea. As far as So Happy’s pedigree, it’s not every day you see a horse by a Breeders’ Cup Sprint winner, out of a mare by a Breeders’ Cup Classic winner. As of this writing I have not seen any speed figures, so I am just going by the visuals and the fractions and final time, which are inconclusive at this point.
14. Incredibolt (Riley Mott, Bold d’Oro — Sapphire Spitfire, by Awesome Again)
This is hardly the way I pictured him getting to the Derby when everything looked so neat and tidy following his victory in the Street Sense Stakes. But since he decided for some unknown reason to take the day off in the Holy Bull Stakes, his first start in three months, it put him in a precarious position trying to make the Derby. Was this lackluster non-performance some weird aberration or did he still think he was on vacation? Whatever the answer, Mott had no choice but to bring him back in the least competitive Derby prep, the Virginia Derby around one turn at Colonial Downs. At first, you couldn’t tell what he was going to do, but the light went on and he charged to the lead in the upper stretch and drew off to win by four lengths, with a huge 115 Brisnet late pace figure and a 100 speed figure. He did equal his top Thoro-Graph number of “6” in the Street Sense, but Mott decided to skip a final prep and go straight to the Kentucky Derby off a seven-week layoff. Good luck finding a horse who won the Derby off that long a layoff. So he will have to overcome that, get enough bottom and sharpness in his works, and make a huge forward move off that “6.” He took a big step in the right direction working a half in a sharp :47 3/5 at Palm Meadows, second fastest of 69 works at the distance. I keep reminding myself that I thought enough of him to rank him No. 3 in Weeks 1 and 2, and that basically is what gives me a small ray of hope he can overcome everything against him and make his presence felt in the Derby.
15. Wonder Dean (Daisuke Takayanagi, Dee Majesty — Wonder Sian Prtaw, by Wonder Acute)
Although he was very impressive winning the UAE Derby, he likely will not get the hype that Danon Bourbon will get and therefore could very well turn out to be an enticing overlay. Not only was he relentless in the stretch, having to run down the UAE 2,000 Guineas winner Six Speed, who had separated himself from the field, he also was pulling far away from the others as he kept closing the gap. We don’t know if it was a matter of Six Speed not staying the 1 3/16 miles or Wonder Dean just putting in a powerful stretch run to draw away and win by 2 1/2 lengths. The fact that Six Speed finished six lengths ahead of Godolphin’s undefeated Pyromancer suggests that was a sensational performance by Wonder Dean. As mentioned last week, many are going to look at his immediate pedigree and see names they never heard, but this is a predominantly American pedigree inundated with stamina and classic winners, including four horses — Sunday Silence, Charismatic, Pleasant Colony, and Northern Dancer — who won the first two legs of the Triple Crown. Add to that, Preakness winners Summer Squall and Master Derby, and Belmont winner Stage Door Johnny. And you can add European supertstars and classic winners Nashwan, Dancing Brave, Pilsudski, and Roberto. So getting the mile and a quarter of the Kentucky Derby should not be a problem in the slightest, especially with the closing punch he displayed at Meydan, getting stronger with every stride down that long stretch. So even if you are more enamored with the more brilliant Danon Bourbon, don’t ignore this guy, who has twice as many starts, far more mileage, and has run at six different tracks in three countries, never finishing off the board.
16. Albus (Riley Mott, Yaupon — Adream, by Bernardini)
How can the Wood Memorial winner and the Santa Anita Derby winner be ranked so far down? I beat you to it. You don’t often see both races won by sons of pure sprinters. I have four weeks to look at both more closely and change my mind, but the truth is, the Wood was not a strong race and the favorite was at a huge disadvantage breaking from post 12. On top of that, the battle on the front end between two fast graded stakes winners was brutal and did both of them in, setting it up for a cavalry charge of longshot closers to pick up the pieces. And even then they walked home the last three-eighths in :39 2/5 to complete the 1 1/8 miles in 1:51 3/5, which was almost a full second slower than the fillies ran the race before in the Gazelle Stakes, and they came home the last three-eighths in :37 4/5. Look, I don’t want to knock Albus, who always looked as if he had a bright future and a big closing kick. I just didn’t think that future was now. And it likely wasn’t, as I feel he will keep improving, but he doesn’t look ready even with his Wood victory to be a serious Derby contender against far better horses than he beat on Saturday. The good news is that Riley Mott, of course the son of Bill Mott, and Pin Oak Stud have two colts in the Kentucky Derby, and Mott, like Mark Glatt, has an emotion-charged story that will make you want to root both trainers.
17. Six Speed (Seemar Bhupat, Not This Time — Browse, by Medaglia d’Oro)
This is another talented colt, but at worst he could provide enough early speed to set it up for his compatriots. He ran a bang-up race in the UAE Derby and hung tough for quite a long way before relinquishing the lead to Wonder Dean, while finishing well clear of the rest of the field. He did win the UAE Derby, and although distance was a queestion, he is inbred to three sires who won a total of seven Triple Crown races. And he is by Not This Time, out of a Medaglia d’Oro mare who traces to champion filly Numbered Account. So, the pedigree is there. It’s just a matter of how the pace sets up and where he is placed, whether on or just off the lead.
18. Right to Party (Kenny McPeek, Constitution — Havin’ a Party, by Emcee)
After the Sweet Sixteen, we have to start reaching to fill the 20-horse field based on current points. Just when you thought Kenny McPeek had run out of bullets, here comes this guy, who like Albus is a strong and consistent closer who is still learning and improving. And his late charge in the Wood Memorial to get second in the final jumps earned him a spot at Churchill Downs. McPeek has no delusions about running in the Derby. He wasn’t expecting to and he’s thrilled to be back, but he realizes you never know when a late-developing closer like him is going to take a big step forward and possibly pick up a piece of it, especially if the pace is hot. I have to admit he is the only Derby horse I have ever seen who is inbred 3 x 3 to Surf Club. But he also is inbred 4 x 4 to Unbridled and his dam traces to Round Table, so he does have some classic bloodlines.
19 – 20. At this time, the status of Class President, Ottinho, and Stark Contrast are unknown and because of that we’re not going to waste time writing comments on each one. Of those, only Class President has been ranked and there is nothing they can do at this late stage to keep him a serious Derby contender, whether it is going into the Derby off the 1 1/16-mile Lexington Stakes and no 1 1/8-mile race or training up tp the race, which would seem highly doubtful with a horse with such a bright future. Ottinho ran well with blinkers added and looks to be a nice horse for down the road, And Stark Contrast could be interesting coming off a second to Fulleffort in the Jeff Ruby Steaks, but it looks like they are taking the train-and-see approach.
KNOCKING ON THE DOOR
With RENEGADE’S Thoro-Graph numbers now in the book, we know pretty much all we need to know from a racing standpoint, but who exactly is Renegade? Simply put, he is a horse you can easily fall in love with. First, go to YouTube and watch Fanduel’s Andie Biancone reporting from Renegade’s stall as she sits next to him while he is sprawled out in the straw, cradling his head against her as she reports. She had just galloped, yes, galloped, the colt. Because of his laid-back personality she was allowed to take him out for a little spin around the Palm Beach Downs track. Assistant trainer Sophie Green just said to just go out and give him an easy gallop, adding. “He’s very easy to be around.” All Renegade’s regular exercise rider Nora McCormack said to her was, “You’re going to fall in love with this horse.” She was right. When Biancone came back, she told them, “I should be paying you guys for letting me gallop this horse.” She added, “I honestly got chills when I was galloping him. He is so efficient, it’s like driving a car. He listens to your every cue and is very in tuned to his rider. He is such a classy individual. There was a lot going on out there and nothing bothers him.”
“That’s him,” said Gerard Butler, the day-to-day trainer at Payton Training Center in Ocala where the colt was broken and received his early training. “He’s always been a very laid-back, easy-going guy. His big concern every day was when is feed time? Because he was so laid-back it took a while for everything to fall in place. We gave him a chance to develop and get stronger. When you watch him now he accelerates like a turf horse. Because of his professionalism, straightforwardness, and self confidence, he can take you from point A to point B and back to point A again if you ask him to.”
Jacob West, the bloodstock agent and racing manager for breeders and part-owners Robert and Lawana Low, and part of the Mike Repole sales team, has been familiar with Renegade, as he puts it, since his conception. “He was foaled at Taylor Made Farm and raised at the Lows’ farm in Missouri before returning to Taylor Made to be prepped for the sale,” he said. “From day one he had good size, strength, good bone, always moved well, and had a great mind.”
That great mind helps make him the classy individual who does everything right. Now you at least know who the Derby favorite is and how all his early traits manifested into the talented, professional you see now. This is the kind of horse you know is going to be unfazed by the chaos of Derby Day and can adapt to any situation during the race.
Pace Makes the Race
I tried a new handicapping angle after getting the latest Brisnet past performances. I took each horse’s last two races and individually added up their early, middle, and late pace figures and added the total to their final speed rating for that race. By doing that I can get an idea who the fastest horses are from start to finish. You see lots of slow early and middle figures and then very fast late figure and vice versa. But who can maintain high speed throughout the race?
Despite making only his second career start in the Louisiana Derby, Emerging Market, with 100, 101, and 96 pace figures and 102 speed rating gets a huge 399 points. For such an inexperienced horse to maintain that kind of speed for 1 3/16 miles is pretty amazing.
In Commandment’s Fountain of Youth, his pace figures were 91 98, and 104. You cant get much better than that from a progression standpoint. Add his 294 points to his excellent 103 speed rating and you come up with 397 points. As a point of reference his Florida Derby totaled 361 points based on the extremely slow early and middle figures and monster 121 late pace figure.
Chief Wallabee’s Fountain of Youth was almost identical to Commandment’s with 396 points and also a much lower Florida Derby. So they are very close in how they run throughout the race and how fast they are.
In further comparison, Renegade’s highest total surprisingly was the Remsen with 379 points, with his Arkansas Derby only 367. But I have to add that in his four career starts he has had very fast late pace figures of 104, 111, and 109. These are off 70-80 early and middle pace figures. In his one race with only an 85 late pace figure, which happened to be the Remsen, he ran his early and middle figures in 95 and 103, which is way too fast for a horse with his closing kick. He sure doesn’t want to do that in the Derby.
Just to add The Puma to the mix, his Florida Derby was almost identical to Commandment’s, but three points higher with a 364.
So the assumption I am sure is that Emerging Market is the fastest horse from start to finish based on his race in the Louisiana Derby. That assumption is incorrect. The fastest horse from the start to finish in any race is — hold on to your hats — the one and only Pavlovian. Yes, Pavlovian, the 210-1 Pool 5 Future Wager horse, and believe me I was as shocked as you no doubt are. But in his Louisiana Derby, he rocketed through early and middle pace figures of 107 and 106, which usually adds up to certain collapse. But he was able to close with a 91 late pace figure to get beat a head. You will rarely see a horse go that fast early and still put in a late pace figure over 90. Add his 304 pace points to his 101 final speed figure and you have 405 points, six more than Emerging Market. That is 25 points higher than Renegade’s fastest race.
No, that does not mean that Pavlovian is better than Renegade or that he has a chance to beat any of the favorites. It does, however, mean that this horse is a lot faster and a lot better right now than most people think. He definitely could get burned out in pace battle in a 20-horse Derby field, but with his ability to carry his speed a long distance, don’t be too shocked if he’s still in there battling through the stretch.
While on the subject of the Louisiana Derby, let’s not forget the strong pace figures throughout by longshot Golden Tempo, who got a 90, 95, and 100, and a 100 speed figure to give him an excellent total number of 385.
Jockey Shorts
To show what an odd road this has been to the Derby, Brad Cox has won three 100-point stakes with Commandment, Further Ado, and Fulleffort, and at this writing none of them have a jockey firmed up, and it’s possible all three will lose the jockey who has been riding them.
Flavien Prat rode Commandment to win the Florida Derby replacing Irad Ortiz, who went off Commandment to ride Renegade in the Arkansas Derby. Now if Prat chooses to stick with his main client Chad Brown and ride Emerging Market in the Kentucky Derby, could we see John Velazquez wind up on Commandment? If Prat does switch, I can’t remember a horse as highly regarded as Commandment, with three consecutive stakes victories, having that many jockey changes in such a short period of time and this close to the Derby. Turning to Ortiz, if he stays with Renegade then both Further Ado and Fulleffort will need a new rider. Turning back to Velazquez, he could wind up on Commandment, but after the Blue Grass it would be tough for him not to go to Further Ado with that 106 Beyer in the Blue Grass. That would lead top riders such as Luis Saez and Tyler Gaffalione to get the mount on the two other Cox horses. You got all that? I’m not quite sure I do.
Back to the sanity of writing regular columns.
Racing historian, author, and award-winning retired journalist for the Daily Racing Form and The Blood-Horse, Steve Haskin was inducted into the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame’s Media Roll of Honor in 2016. Known for his racing knowledge and insightful prose, he has been an exclusive contributor to Secretariat.com since 2020.
Awesome information. I have liked Danon Bourbon for a bit but Wonder Dean is on my radar as well. That track in the desert was slow and tiring. Both those horses got a lot out of it. Thank you Mr Haskin
Steve will you be making a final ranking with comments, or put out your final thoughts and selections after the post draw on Saturday?
I appreciate the work you do. Thank you, John.
I was wondering about Constitution as a potential Derby sire.
His son, Tiz the Law, won the 2020 Belmont at the shortened distance of a mile and an eighth. Covid. He won the Travers at a mile and a quarter against a less than stellar field before getting beat in both the Kentucky Derby and Breeders Cup at that same distance. 1 for 3 at a mile and a quarter.
Yep! Don’t forget that the 2020 Derby was run in early September. Strange days.
Bottom line: I think “The Chief” will be just fine at a mile and a quarter. And he may be primed for the race of his life in just under 3 weeks.
Bill Mott usually has his horses ready to run on the big days. With Renegade, Commandment, and The Puma taking most of the money, could “The Chief” go off at about 15-1? He’ll have his regular jockey. Further Ado will also take action after that big number at Keeneland. Flavien Prat and Chad Brown always take money. Even with a 3rd time starter? IDK. 11-1 or 12-1 would be enough to sway me to “The Chief”.
Tommy, my opinion since Jan.is he won’t encounter any problem getting 10f.
I don’t think the horse that won over Tia The Law was running just on oats hay and water … not authentic
Does Luis Saez fit Commandment? Terrific jockey. A speed or stalker type of jockey.
While Commandment isn’t what I would call a stone-cold closer, I see him as a little further back than a stalker.
Luis Saez’ best chance since the Maximum Security debacle? Maybe the Racing-Gods owe him one.
Fifty years ago…The Kentucky Derby had less than 10 starters, with a 2/5 favorite….today—its a 20-horse field, every year….
Mathew W
Yesterday, you posted a comment regarding Medina Spirit’s disqualification in the 2021 Kentucky Derby. Granted, it was not a banned substance, but the fact that a prescribed medication was in his system during the race lead to his disqualification. You inferred that I was calling Bob Baffert a cheat for stating this. Nothing could further from the truth. I’m one of Baffert’s biggest fans. It was an oversight on his part that medication would not clear his system prior to the race.
Bottom line, the history books will show that Into Mischief has sired three (3) Kentucky Derby winners.
In closing, I wish Bob Baffert the best of luck with his Into Mischief colt, Potente.
Peace, Mathew W.
Hi Steve. I love Renegade since his explode at Tampa, even over Paladin.
1. Renegade
2. Further Ado
3. Commandment
4. Emerging Market
5. So Happy (God works in mysterious ways)
6. Danon Bourbon
7. The Puma
8. Chief Wallabee
9. Potente
10. Fulleffort
From that list…So Happy, Further Ado, Chief Wallabee and Potente are stalkers….I think stalkers have the advantage, this year…usually I look for a closer type….The Derby is a unique race….Renegade—whim I believe is the top horse—willl have to work a trip…lots of “filler” types …
Emerging Market would also be considered a stalker…only two races, sheesh…
Like the Puma to win the Kentucky derby he has enough speed to secure a good position in the 20 horse field and has shown he can pounce on them at the right time
G2, Oaklawn Handicap, Saturday, 4-18, Race #11
1) White Abarrio
2) Liberal Arts
3) Sovereignty
4) Duke of Duval
5) Journalism
6) Publisher
Should be a walk in the park for Sovereignty.
A walk in the park? He’s unlikely to be fully cranked for a G2 race that’s 7 1/2 months after the Travers win.
A walk in the park seems like an appropriate description. Sovereignty could be half cracked and still put this field away. Just out of curiosity, which horse do you feel has the best chance of beating the 2025 Kentucky Derby winner?
I never said anything about what horse has the best chance. Sovereignty could very well be the most likely winner, but it probably won’t be an easy win (i.e., a walk in the park).
Agreed! Huge fan of Sov, however not racing since last Aug, most likely a highly competitively race.
Journalism will have a weight advantage, a short field, and Jose Ortiz. Maybe all of that will make a difference. Maybe not.
I’m just happy to see both of them back in action.
What do you think? Five races for each of them over the next 6 months?
Sovereignty is one of my all-time favorite horses. 7-1 was a blessing. Unless he loses a race or two, I will probably never be able to bet on him again.
I know it is not Gulfstream but White Abarrio may have a say in this contest if he is on his game.
Haven’t seen a workout from Renegade this weekend.
I know getting a little antsy. Not ready to delve just yet. Maybe he’s getting ready to ship. Ill give it a few more days. If anything, Grening will have it. He and Todd have been tight for a long time. I have a source as well . I dont break news anymore so I can wait.
👍
It shouldn’t be an issue. Based on Todd Pletcher’s recent history with horses having five or six weeks between the last prep and the Derby, Renegade should have a workout on April 16. I can supply supporting evidence if the subject comes up in Steve’s next posting. 🤓
Civil Liberty finally broke his maiden, today at Keeneland…1:22 2/5 is pretty fast…
If you are searching for a legitimate sleeper in the Derby, look no further than Incredibolt. Think about it… Steve had him ranked third the first two weeks of his ranking; and when you factor in that both (top horses) Ted Noffey and Paladin are currently on the sidelines, the son of Bolt d’Oro was effectively his top Derby horse in hindsight.
Incredibolt’s blunder in the Holy Bull cooled the early buzz around his potential, but the Virginia Derby made it clear he’s right back on track. Now one can easily forgive a bad day (in the Holy Bull) especially after coming of a 3-month layoff.
Incredibolt will likely be in the $15/1-$20/1 range on Derby day, just because many bettors are dismissing the Virginia Derby as a soft Stakes. That’s a flawed read.
Watch the replay and you’ll see the real feat: Incredibolt was hopelessly boxed in turning for home, waited for dayligth, and then exploded the instant a clear path opened. That move was not luck … it was a validation of everything Steve had been saying when he kept the Riley Mott trainee at the top of his rankings. The talent was (is) always there and the Virginia Derby simply reminded everyone about it.
As the 6,000 mg of Ginko Biloba pill I took this morning is kicking in, allow me to be philosophical and say: the harder Incredibolt trains, the better he runs. He won’t suffer from the “overtraining” fate waiting to happen to 80% of his Derby rivals.
Incredibolt thrives on strong workouts, and that makes him one of the few horses in this crop whose conditioning is still pointing upward.
The survivors of Steve’s first top 12 are Incredibolt, Commandment, Renegade, and Further Ado. The last three will likely be the top betting choices in the Derby but we should keep in mind that Incedibolt hasn’t come out of nowhere __ Steve’s clues were there from the start.
APharoah12 has a YouTube video on the Virginia Derby. He was on the grounds so you can see lots of footage of the horses before and after the race.
I noticed one thing…
Incredibolt and Renegade ran the same race in the stretch. Each got 2 cracks of the whip, and each responded with a tremendous burst of acceleration after each crack. It looked like they shifted into 4th gear, then 5th gear with each crack.
Incredibolt was running with max stride through the wire. The jockey said he had to pull him up immediately after the wire because he wanted to go.
Oh, and he’s 2 for 2 (wins) at Churchill.
So the only question in my mind is the 7 weeks. How big of an obstacle is that really? Just because it’s never been done before? I don’t take much stock in that because how big could the sample size be? I don’t know. Happy to hear thoughts from anyone on that.
Thanks for your reply Roan Boy… I will watch the video.
Regarding the 7 week-layoff I feel like his three strong 4-furlong workouts at Palm Meadows since the VA Derby and two more breezes to go, is putting him in a great position to peak on D day.
As you pointed out, the way Incredibolt pulls away from rivals in the stretch is what true Derby horses do.
Incredibolt will likely be a very plausible overlay in the Derby.
Incredibolt has one angle I like, 5th generation Secretariat which in a past post I showed that in the past 12 years is ssociated with 2/3 of KD horses that crossed the finish line first. Howvever, he has negatives that I can’t get past to allow me to entertain as a win candidate. Whenever something’s never been done before, it causes me pause., and I look for more evidence it can be done Like gelding angle. That was an angle for me, as weird as it was, until Funny Cide and then the angle went in the trash can. The unusual last prep and the time off causes me pause. I used to fade international horses but Forever Young changed that angle for me. Though not a winner in KD, he showed me enough to dismiss at my peril. By the way, he had 5th generation Secretatiat on sire and dam side. Finally I remember too much about Bolt D’Oro and money I lost on him in past. He was good early in his racing career but when he stretched out, not so much. For me, my KD horse is mostly all about pedrigee angles, unlike any other race. It is also about me evaluating the pros and cons and trying to skinny the field down on the win end. This year I will bet accross the board W,P,S. And an Exacta wheel one horse with all. I came close to not wanting to bet this year. But I managed to force out a selection on top. Going to go with the US bred, Dubai domicled Six Speed. Weird year for sure. Good luck with your bets.
Hi Nelson
Referring to Incredibolt as a “legitimate sleeper” is spot on, and may have opened a few eyes, including mine. If memory serves me correctly, you have a strong regard for Awesome Again, the sire of Incredibolt’s dam. Coincidently, Fulleffort’s dam was sired by Awesome Again. Currently, Fulleffort is my longshot Derby pick.
BTW, Potente’s dam was sired by Awesome Again.
So, there you have it, three legitimate prospects to consider for a trifecta wager, boxed of course. Should those three finish 1,2,3 the payout would be substantial.
Hi Bill.
Fulleffort, especially if Gaffalione is finally named to ride him, is a very reliable choice for the exotics (I am likening him with Final Gambit coming from the same “system”).
I also see Golden Tempo turning the tables against Emerging Market and Pavlovian… so, in the interest of saving betting money the son of Curlin will be replacing those two.
The majority of the betting public will be dismissing the Santa Anita Derby but I see it as a very strong prep. When you see what Pavlovian and Desert Gate have done lately elsewhere you can infer that the west coast contingent is in fact very strong. So, Potente and So Happy will be included in all my combinations.
The reports of the foreigners moving on Churchill grounds will be key to assess their chances.
In a wide open Derby it is very likely to get big (exotic) payoffs… I just hope we get lucky!
Thanks for the reply, Nelson
The class and stamina influence reflected on both sides of Golden Tempo’s pedigree is there for all to see. He should relish the Classic distance. The fact that he’s a Phipps Stable homebred adds to his allure.
That said, I’ve been meaning to ask you how you currently feel about The Puma. If I recall correctly, you were very on this Essential Quality colt from the get-go. Do you believe he’s still a major player in the Derby, and where would you rank him versus the other top Derby prospects.
Obviously, Steve is very high on The Puma to have him ranked at #2.
From my perspective, he hasn’t displayed a significant amount of early speed, which could work against him in a 20-horse field. He might find himself well back of the field, coming out of the first turn. His late pace figure of 117, in the Florida Derby, to finish a nose behind Commandment was remarkable. Will he be able to replicate that strong finish against 19 other horses? In my view, it all depends on the trip he gets in this 20-horse field.
I’d appreciate any thoughts you might have on The Puma.
Thanks, Nelson.
I am still very high on The Puma. To me, he got the right stuff to win the Derby and as for everyone else he will need a bit of good luck.
Being familiar with Gustavo Delgado’s ability to make his horses peak at the right time feeds my confidence in The Puma.
Gustavo Delgado’s body of work in Venezuela includes three Triple Crown champions, five Stakes equivalent to the Breeder’s Cup Classic and five Stakes similar to the BC Juvenile. His 245 Blacktype Stakes including 75 Grade 1 wins is an exceptional accomplishment considering that there are only 105 racing days per year in Venezuela. Delgado was inducted into the the Caribean and Central American Hall of Fame in 2010.
I share your worry about The Puma’s tardy breaks, He and Commandment were rather letargic at the start in the Florida Derby.
They will need a draw between pp 7 to 14 to mitigate the risks of being left too far early on; but Luis Saez and Javier Castellano have enough Derby experience to remain calm and steady and not rattled if they have to come from behind.
My current top 5 horses in order of preference are:
Commandment, The Puma, Further Ado, Renegade, and Incredibolt.
Of course, things could change in the next three weeks but I expect to keep at least two or three as my “top tier”.
Thanks for the reply, Nelson
My top five, in preferential order, are as follows:
Renegade
Further Ado
Commandment
Potente
Danon Bourbon
I will use two longshots in some of my exotic wagers, Silent Tactic and Fulleffort.
Hopefully, your top five and my top five stay healthy moving forward.
Correction: John Velazquez with Commandment
Nelson, Incredibolt is one of my top 5 horses. Never am I of the theory “one strike and you’re out” regarding a horse running a bad race.
Mike, after revisiting the Street Sense Stakes and Virginia Derby Incredibolt makes my top 5 as well.
I can picture him closing fast in the Derby like he did in those two excellent races.
Me 2.
Loved your comments about Incredibolt. And you had me asking Google about ginkgo biloba. I think the biggest problem for Incredibolt is that he’s really only had one true race since the layoff. The Holy Bull jog did nothing for him. No amount of workouts can be an adequate substitute for a good race.
No workout for Emerging Market this weekend?
Pickles … Emerging Markets worked his normal 4F today at PAY in 49.40.
Sorry, I watch too many investment shows. I meant the singular “Emerging Market”.
Oh, great! Thanks…I missed it
Judging by the demeanor that Commandment has displayed, he fits all the characteristics of an “Alpha Male”, IMO. Had he been born in the wild, I’m convinced he would have been the “Herd Leader”, as a young stallion.
I still believe that Renegade is the horse to beat, but Commandment will give him all he can handle in the Derby, IMO. Boxing those two in a fairly large exacta wager looks intriguing. I’ll key Renegade on top, with Commandment and Further Ado underneath, in a fairly large trifecta wager.
Fulleffort fits the bill as a live longshot, IMO. He was bred from the Mr. Prospector/Northern Dancer cross, which always gets my attention. I suspect his opening odds with be around 20-1.
Danon Bourbon, the undefeated Japanese colt, looks very intriguing as well. I’m looking forward to seeing how he works over the Churchill track.
The 2026 Kentucky Derby could be one of the most exciting Derby races that we’ve seen in recent years. The personification of a “Classic” horse race.
I can’t remember which of his earlier races it was, but the way Commandment bulled his way between two horses in the stretch when there really wasn’t enough room, basically saying “Get out of my way”, was very impressive. I think Steve called it out earlier.
Commandment is a fearless fighter who wants to win.
I finally got to see Danon Bourbon’s races on YouTube. He has an incredible stride and burst of speed. He’s very impressive when he runs and has a great stalking style. He might be a sneaky play because on film he looks like a monster and he definitely has the pedigree to get the distance. All I could say when I saw him run was WOW.
The last 2 Saturdays have been very frustrating to me. I didn’t like Napoleon Solo or Iron Honor in the Wood Memorial. But I couldn’t land on the winner.
Yesterday, I was totally against the two Brad C runners coming off races at Colonial. I couldn’t hit the winner of the Lexington either. My runner ran well after being bet down to 4-1 but was found wanting in the stretch. Settling for 2nd. No good for my win wager.
I would never have picked that winner. Apparently, Trendsetter calls Keeneland home even if it was only his second start there.
Turn the page, take a break, and come back strong on Oaks Night and Derby Day.
Oaks Night??? It’s going to be a pretty quick turnaround to Derby Morning.
I feel your pain, Tommy. I had worse experience the 2 Saturdays before yesterday. I bet the horses I thought had better breeding for the KD, hoping they would perform well. All of them, I mean all of them, laid an egg before Easter. Not even close to giving me a run for my money. None of them earned enough points to qualify for the KD. We can always hope the worm will turn.
Todd Pletcher could possibly have the favorites in both the Kentucky Oaks and the Kentucky Derby. I wondered how many times that the same trainer has won both races in the same year. So, I looked it up.
It has been done 3 times. Kenny McPeek pulled it off just 2 years ago with Thorpedo Anna and Mystik Dan. Before that it had been 71 years since Ben Jones did it in 1952. I couldn’t find out who or when it had been done before that.
Which of Pletcher’s horses is the most likely to win? Zany or Renegade?
I figure that Zany has about a 33% chance to win the Oaks if she starts. Percy’s Bar could have something to say about that.
Renegade looks more solid to me. But he will have to beat more contenders IMO.
19 Opponents. The Puma, Commandment, “The Chief”, and a couple of mysterious Japanese runners. I don’t know anything about either of them.
I’ll give Renegade about a 20% chance to win. I see him at about 4-1 or even 5-1.
Entries will be taken the Saturday night before the Derby. April the 25th.
The sooner the better. Lots of work to do.
Tommy, I love looking stuff like this up. I found the trainer in an unusual year: 1933. Herbert J Thompson (remember him? Me neither) won the Derby with longshot Broker’s Tip and the Oaks with Barn Swallow, who ended up champion filly of her year.
A top five ranked trifecta box is tempting. Sure looks to be top heavy as of now anyway.
I feel sad that some may ignore future comments that I post here. I simply pointed out that Into Mischief has sired three (3) Kentucky Derby winners, not just two as he insists on believing. Medina Spirit was disqualified for having a banned substance in his system, and as a result of that disqualification, Mandaloun was declared the winner in the 2021 KD. Rules are rules, and must be adhered to, especially in such prestigious events as the Kentucky Derby.
Hopefully, I won’t lose any sleep at night, lamenting the fact that someone will ignore my comments.
A long time ago, I came to the conclusion that you can please some of the people some of the time, but you can’t please all the people all of the time.
In closing, I predict that this year’s KD winner will be a colt sired by Into Mischief, which will be his fourth (4th) KD winner. A win by Renegade would seal the deal, but Commandment and Potente are major Derby contenders as well. It would come as no surprise if one of those two will wear the Roses on Derby Day.
Good luck to everyone.
If Renegade draws the rail, all the talent is inconsequential.
Mike the rail draw has a clear pathway now that they got the one gate ..
I agree. This is only the 7th year of the single gate. I can’t recall any horse in the first post that was compromised. Last year, in fact, Citizen Bull broke out and caused a chain reaction. That wasn’t because of being in post 1.
If Renegade draws the rail I do not see that as a negative for him as he is a closer. He will save ground going into the first turn. The real work for him will be the backstretch for him and having Irad weaving him thru the horses to get the best positioning for him getting into the stretch….. He has the quickest turn of foot of any the horses in the race. I like his chances from any post position he draws in this race.
Of course you wouldn’t.
I find it interesting that someone would completely ignore a sire who has sired more Official KY Derby Winners than any other in history. The history books will only list Mandaloun sired by Into Mischief as the winner. Long after we are gone there will be nobody that will dispute that. Rest assured he will read your blogs no matter what he says, in any case it matters none. You do you.
Nobody can reasonably dispute the official record of KDs that involved disqualification. But each person sees the result in different ways and for different reasons. When I study the historical record of the derby for logical angles, I can’t justify the consideration of a horse that wouldn’t have won if the DQ event had not occurred.
For example, when establishing a minimum Brisnet speed figure for a Derby winner, should I use Mandaloun’s 83? If I did, it would turn the angle upside down and render it useless. So I don’t dispute the record. I just use information that will help me establish a model of a Kentucky Derby winner. I certainly wish that he had crossed the finish line first because I had a future wager on him. Unfortunately, bettors cashed on Medina Spirit, not on Mandaloun.
I am not completely ignoring Into Mischief sire. I loved Sovereignty last year. I have certain rules for handicapping the KD. Until proven wrong, I am hanging on to this one. Only 2 Into Mischief offsprings have crossed the finish line first on race day, i.e., Authentic and Sovereignty, and they both had Secretariat in the 5th Generation of pedigree. I have passed on other Into Mischiefs in the past. If one of the Into Mischiefs crosses the finish line first this year, I will promptly toss this rule into the trash can. So far it has helped me shrink the KD field size for the win end.
Even if you believe “only 2” Into Mischiefs crossed the finish line first on race day, he still is tied for #1 in producing KY Derby winners all time. FYI no other horse in the 2026 projected field is sired by a horse who previously sired a KY Derby winner. Can’t rule all of them out.
One of the learning from phychology is that the only truth is your own truth. If someone thinks that a winner is the one who finished first on the day no one can change his own truth.
If in your mind Into Mischief is the winningest Derby sire and that will be the consensus (with an asterisk) you don’t have to convince anyone about that view.
In summary, we have to learn how to feel peace in front of different opinions and even while facing perceived attacks…
Rah for Kazushi Kimura in the Lexington!
Chief Wallabee is first in line for the inevitable withdrawals in the coming days. Second in line is INTREPIDO, last seen finishing 4th by 10 lengths in the SA Derby. Today, the DRF reported that Intrepido is in the “Derby hunt.” Trainer Jeff Mullins was reported to say that “he will adhere to the wishes of the colt’s owners and aim Intrepido to the Kentucky Derby notwithstanding his 10-length loss in the Santa Anita Derby….Mullins was reserved in his comments Saturday morning after Intrepido went to the track for the first time since the Santa Anita Derby. Horses typically return to the track sooner than one week after a race.” “Just gave him some time,” Mullins said Saturday at 6 a.m. “The horse has been a little bit light. He went today, he jogged today.”
It should be emphasized that Intrepido did not have a workout today. He jogged. Remember that Intrepido was withheld from San Felipe consideration because the colt was very tired after the RB Lewis Stakes. I don’t know who the individuals are behind the two LLCs listed as ownership. But I’m distressed by the apparent lack of consideration for the colt’s well being.
Consider the barn he’s in.
Thank you for reading my post and for replying. I tend to take the trainer’s comments at face value. It’s apparent that he did not agree with the owners about the Derby. What’s your take?
Mike C, thanks! My feeling is owners want to run him regardless. Thinking of their feelings first, when the should consider the horse.
Edit: they
Mullins doesn’t want to go. Last time he was there he was the morning line favorite and got scratched. He doesn’t want to go thre with a pretender. Not a contender. Ownership is trying to train the horse. Bad choice.
Spot on John.
Just looked back at my personal Derby rankings lists for the last 15 years. Generally, a horse must be really fast to win the Derby, but not always THE fastest. (For example, Sovereignty had lower speed figures than Journalist, and we know how that turned out.)
But a key reason to prefer Sovereignty was that he was a homebred; Journalism was not. Homebreds tend to win a remarkable percentage of Derbies. My thought is, when you like two horses equally, the homebred trumps the horse sold at the sales or privately. On that note, here are the five homebreds still in contention for the Derby. They’d make a juicy five-way super, trifecta or exacta bet:
Renegade
Chief Wallabee
Golden Tempo
Pavlovian
Ottinho
Hi Ms Blacktype
I would add Wonder Dean to your list of homebred colts. Yoshinari Yamamoto is the owner/breeder of Wonder Dean. He won the UAE Derby on March 28th.
Thanks, Bill. I didn’t realize he was or I would have included him.
Ms Blacktype …. Since I am interested in the horse who came in second in the UAE Derby, don’t necessarily be dissuaded by the slow time. I heard a youtuber claim the track was wet from rain. The UAE Derby was Race 4. The Dubai World Cup was Race 9. I don’t know when the rain came. But this guy claimed that Magnitude’s winning time over Forever Young in the 1 1/4 mile of the Dubai World Cup was 2 minutes 5 seconds which would be quite slow for us. I am unable to research this and try to confirm, but thought I would share if somebody had greater investigatory skills than me.
I just tried chatgpt and here is what it told me:
Winning Time: 2:04.38
Dirt Track Condition: Fast
While not the fastest renewal, well within typical range for a Meydan dirt World Cup.
I am blown away by AI. Recently it has educated me about RMDs and Quarterly Estimated Taxes. Pretty amazing development in last few years.
I’m less enthusiastic about AI. I asked my computer who Jose Ortiz was riding in the 2026 Kentucky Derby. I was told that “Jose Ortiz Jr.” would ride Renegade. So much for AI.
I personally refuse to use AI for anything I can use my own brain to analyze. But I’m one of those old school people 😂😂😂
I actually enjoy reading and analysis.
That’s an interesting observation, Ms Blacktype. I see that, in the last 22 years, there have been 13 homebred winners of the derby. I’m sure that non-homebreds represent the vast majoriry of derby runners.
Yes Mike, it’s a factor that was discussed a lot on last year’s Derby trail but hasn’t been mentioned a lot this year. Thanks for providing the actual stats.
Any one else feeling like Commandment was to regress big time in the Florida Derby but won it regardless?
Nelson, we’ll know he did if he wins the Derby on May 2. But I agree, it’s possible he was a little tired or less than fit in that race.
Thanks Ms Blacktype for your reply… I thought I was alone in the perception that Commandment was a bit different in his last prep…
That may be attributable to the very slow early pace of the Florida Derby. He had more Kentucky Derby-like fractions in the Fountain of Youth, yet his Fla Derby Brisnet speed figure was only 3 points lower than in the FOY. In addition, he had a Late Pace figure of 121 in the Fla Derby compared to his 104 in the FOY.
All good points Mike …
Numbers aside, I got the impression that Commandment was not “full of intent” or not fully interested or engaged early … and he had to be ridden hard at the end because of that lack of focus… who knows
My thoughts as well, Nelson.
I’m sure that you have a much better eye for the physical nature of the race than I do. But what I saw from Commandment impressed me. He made a strong move on the final turn and got up for an eyelash win.
We are on the same page Mike C.
It was the more impressive in my mind eyes because he was not supossed to win that race assuming my (again) perceived lack of interest when compared to his previous performances …
I just felt it was commandment’s superb class that let him overcome a “bad day” every athlete is fated to have in his career…
Zulu Kingdom won the grade one Makor’s Mark Mile yesterday…not because he was the best miler …he won because he was alone, on the front end….I remember Game On Dude could win, on the front end running 1:10 fraction, if he was alone ….but going 1:11 with company he lost, I believe Potente got gassed, with Robusta lapped on him, race fractions don’t necessarily cause a horse to spit out the bit….if So Happy ran well…and he did—Id take another look, at Potente, who is 100 lbs bigger….
Right now, I am thinking Six Speed on the front end wire to wire a la War Emblem. I think he has the breeding to do it. I find knocks in breeding of all the others this year. For me, the Kentucky Derby is not a normal handicapping race. If it were, last year I would have been all over Journalism instead of Sovereignty. It’s mostly all about breeding for me.
Edwin Maldonado is a front end specialist, he rides Pavlonian….horse and rider on the same page….
Re: Potente, I cannot break one of my rules with Into Mischief sire. Only 2 Into Mischief sires have won the Kentucky Derby, Authentic and Sovereignty, and both had Secretariat in Generation 5.
I to Mischief was a big colt, who could’ve been any kind, as a runner….same dam as the great Beholder, who beat males, at ten furlongs… there’s potential, for Potente!..
Mandaloun, by Into Mischief, won the 2021 Kentucky Derby, which makes a total of three, not just two. The three Into Mischief colts entered in this year’s Derby, (Commandment, Renegade and Potente) are serious Derby contenders, one of which could be wearing the roses in this year’s Derby.
In 2021 Medina Spirit crossed the finish line first. A couple of months later Mandaloun, who crossed the finish line second, was bumped up to the win. Sorry, in my mind, still only 2!
The fact that Medina Spirit was running with a banned substance in his system, gave him an advantage against the rest of the field. The time between his win and his ultimate disqualification, is immaterial.
Bottom line, three Into Mischief colts have won the Kentucky Derby.
Your attempt to spin it otherwise is questionable.
Medina Spirit was disqualified for a medication violation. There is no evidence that the substance in his system gave him an advantage in the race. Additionally, name one bettor who cashed a win ticket on Mandaloun.
At 27-1, I would think very few bettors had win wagers on Mandaloun. Whether or not the banned substance gave him an advantage over the rest of the field, is a moot point.
The fact that he was running on a banned substance was reason enough to take down his number.
Bill Dawson, your reply is very confusing. Let’s forget about it.
Thanks for the support Mike. Dawson’s comment to me was absurd and not sitting well with me. I will just ignore him from now on.
Bill …not a banned substance ..but it had not cleared his system, enough….prescribed overages happen, they were sloppy, for sure, but “banned” smacks of cheating, or “juicing”—which this was not …Medina Spirit was a good horse, I saw him beat older in the Awesome Again, by eight lengths …
Mathew, with all due respect, you’re splitting hairs on this issue.
The fact that the “prescribed medication” had not cleared his system was reason enough to disqualify Medina Spirit.
MS ran in the California Crown (not the Awesome Again, race name was changed) and while he was a very good horse that field was horrible.
Jenna…it was the Awesome Again, not California Crown, which was run only one time …and Bill….I’m not “splitting hairs”! I’ve no problem, with the disqualification, but you stated it was a banned substance, and that smacks of cheating—overages of prescribed meds happen to most barns, at one time or another, you use italics, (“prescribed”)—and that’s another sign of disrespect, if you want to call Bob a cheat, than do just that, NYRA and CDI made it clear–hia suspension was never about cheating, by “juicing”…
Into Mischief became a sire in 2009 so his first foals reached 3 in 2012. Since then he has sired 3 official ky derby winners, no other horse has sired more than one. Who do you think has a better percentage/chance of winners this day and age?
Good points, Paul. Enjoy your astute comments.
Notable Speech was even money in the Makers Mark. His “rabbit” broke bad and tried to hustle up. But couldn’t get to Zulu Kingdom. Notable Speech was blocked the entire length of the stretch. Rough trip. Draw a line through that race. Notable Speech should be tough if he shows up on Oaks or Derby day at Churchill.
I didn’t have any bets on the race. Just watched.
Tyler Gaffalione is off to a 1 for 33(3%) start at the current Keeneland meet. He has some quality mounts today at Keeneland including the red-hot Lush Lips. Maybe he gets back on track today.
The game of musical chairs for top jockeys in the Derby reminded me of elite riders of the past who had to decide between many live contenders to end up on the wrong one.
In 1942 the legendary Eddie Arcaro was asked to choose his Derby mount between Shut Out and Devil Diver. He chose Devil Diver who finished 6th and Shut Out won. To this day Eddie Arcaro and Bill Hartak are tied as the winningest jockeys in the Derby with five.
Perhaps the most famous case was Shoemaker’s decision to leave Northern Dancer (after winning the Flamingo Stakes and the Florida Derby together) for the bigger Hill Rise, winner of the San Felipe Stakes and the Santa Anita Derby. Shoemaker had not ridden Hill Rise but he thought the leading horse of the west coast was better than Northern Dancer. It was a “bonehead decision” as Shoemaker confided in his biography.
Bill Hartak guided Northern Dancer to win the Derby and became the regular rider of the famous Canadian champion. It was Hartak’s fourth Derby win with just his sixth starter.
In 1994 Jerry Bailey stepped off Go For Gin after riding him to a 2nd in the FoY, 4th as the favorite in the Florida Derby, and a second in the Wood Memorial. Despite these good prep outcomes, Jerry Bailey opted to ride Blumin Affair in the Derby. Bailey had ridden Blumin Affair to a runner-up effort in the BC Juvenile.
In 1995 Pat Day was the regular rider for Timber Country so it was natural he left Thunder Gulch after they finished 4th in the Wood Memorial. Thunder Gulch had won the Florida Derby under Mike Smith but the veteran jockey went for Talkin Man in the Derby. Gary Stevens was the beneficiary of tha void and won his second Kentucky Derby with Thunder Gulch.
In 1999 Jerry Bailey had felt Charismatic’s engine in winning the Lexington Stakes but the Hall of Fame jockey decided to ride Godolphin’s Worldly Manner in the Derby.
In 2013 John Velazquez had piloted Orb to convincing wins in the FoY and Florida Derby but he opted for Pletcher’s Verrazano then undefeated winner of the Tampa Derby and the Wood Memorial. Loyalty took precedence in this case. It was a reverse of luck for Johny V, as the previous year he had landed the mount of Animal Kingdom after the scratch of his horse Pletcher’s Uncle Mo.
Joel Rosario was reunited with Orb in the Derby.
In the 2019 Arkansas Derby, Joel Rosario guided Country House to a fast-closing third 7 lenghts behind Omaha Beach and Improbable. When Omaha Beach was scratched as the Derby favorite, Improbable inherited that role. Rosario understandably returned to his regular mount, the more highly regarded Game Winner. Bill Mott turned to Flavien Prat, who delivered the ride of Country House’s life. Since that breaktrhough, Prat has become one of the Derby’s most effective jockeys, with a record of one win, a second, three thirds, and a fourth from eight starters.
It is worth noting that we can only speculate about how the Derby might have unfolded if the jockeys who rode eventual winners in their prep races hadn’t switched to other, less successful contenders. For instance, in Shoemaker’s case, staying on Northern Dancer could have meant him devoting so much attention to (his much admired) Hill Rise that the Canadian colt didn’t receive the perfectly judged ride he ultimately enjoyed with Bill Hartak.
This year, Irad Ortiz Jr. had the rare luxury of being the regular rider for four Kentucky Derby contenders. For many handicappers, his decision to side with Renegade speaks volumes. Still, entering a horse in the Derby is far easier than actually winnning it… just ask Todd Pletcher.
The jockey’s decision may not be a strict handicapping-based decision. What trainer and ownership gives them more mounts can factor in.
Yes Paul.
Any given jockey can decide on partnering with the trainer or connections that could help him achieve his strategic goals. The Derby is big but some jockeys might be thinking about winning other important Stakes in their preferred circuit, win an eclipse or keep the loyalty alive for future strong Derby contenders.
Irad Ortiz Jr. and Brad Cox partnership has been very prolific for the past year and a half; but when the jockey decides to shift tack to Florida or New York he will be getting strong support from the best trainers and ride top horses in those circuits… he is impervious to what he decides to ride in the Derby.
That is the beauty of being an elite rider…
Man…what a terrific post!…Poor Don Pierce, who had been riding Hill Rise to victory, Pierce was a “Big Race Jockey”…
Hi Nelson
Your sense of recall is nothing short of amazing. Bill Hartack had an intense dislike of Bill (Willie) Shoemaker, and despised being called “Willie”.
When comparing the past great jockeys versus the current top jockeys, I would rate the past jockeys as the best. Just my opinion.
Comparing the elite jockeys from the Golden Era to modern ones is a very interesting exercise.
The ecosystem of the past is very different from today’s.
Jockeys from the past were more intuitive and modern jockeys are more analytical and able to plan strategy thanks to the video analysis and data availability.
In the past the jockeys were more fearless as the safety measures were not that good.
Modern jockeys enjoy the benefits of scientific training, sports medicine and nutrition science. They now participate in international competition and more turf races than the great jockeys of the golden era. You can say that they show more athleticism as well.
The Ortiz brothers., Flavien Prat, Joel Rosario, Luis Saez, or Tyler Gaffalione would be strugling in the chaotic environment that Longden, Arcaro, Shoemaker, Hartak, and Blum navigated masterfully.
This comparison would be a good question to ask to riders in the linking generation represented by Mike Smith, Gary Stevens, Angel Cordero Jr., Pincay, Jerry Bailey, and John Velazquez.
A fascinating history, Nelson Maan. Thanks!
My pleasure Mike C… I am glad you like it.
Sovereignty vs Journalism Oaklawn Hadicap Saturday April 18
That’s Handicap
Whitey, also…..those are nominatiobs….
Hi Steve,
I am most confused by your #12 and #13 rankings (Potente and So Happy). I know you said you don’t know what to make of the west coast horses. But I thought the SA Derby was the strongest prep race in terms of race run (second strongest to the Florida Derby if you considered the quality of horses that fired).
So I’m baffled that you have Fulleffort, Golden Tempo, and Pavlovian ranked above those two. Even Emerging Market who I feel is a superstar in this crop. Because the SA Derby was such a better race than the Jeff Ruby And Louisiana Derby. They came home slow in both those races.
It sounds like you just trust those horses more than Potente and So Happy. But I think these two are just flat out better horses, with the exception of Emerging Market who I like best.
So yeah, baffled by #12 and #13. Like you said, I think the SA Derby tightened the screws on Potente. If he was able to last that long after battling on the lead through those fractions. How powerful will he be in the Derby stretch if he sits off the pace and conserves that energy stored up in the SA Derby? That’s just the way I see it. I would have Potente no higher than #7.
He seems to base everything, or for the most part, off of thorograph numbers. Once So Happy’s number is confirmed, he will leapfrog a bunch of these. You’ll see when week 13’s rankings willl come out
I ranked So Happy too low pure and aimple. Im just so much more familiar with the other horses I didnt know who to lower, but with more time to look at him I realized his ranking was way off. Im still not sure what ro make of Potente. I did not want to see him on the lead.
Curious to see where they land in your rankings next week.
Additionally, I noticed you talk about gallop outs quite often. I found it interesting that Potente (being restrained) caught up to So Happy (loose reigns) by the first turn on the gallop out.
To me, Potente ran the better prep to set him up for next time.
Tyler?!!…..Good fit. I like Fulleffort as a longshot to make it ITM….Silent Tactic and Wonder Dean as well….WIDE open race IMO
I don’t understand this fascination with the Florida Derby runners. Of all of the major preps it had the smallest field size (6) and the slowest pace by far. Run in 24.22/48.80/1:13.00. Do you honestly think we will see that pace in the Derby? Arkansas Derby: 8 runners, 23.25/47.80/1:12.52, Blue Grass: 7 runners 23.60/47.71/1:1180, Santa Anita: 7 runners 23.03/46.79/1:11.11, Louisiana Derby: 9 runners 22.65/46.23/1:10.85 and I won’t even mention the Wood. Notice that the Louisiana, run at the longer distance had the fastest internal fractions.
You make a very good point. But Maximum Security and Orb won the Florida Derby with slow fractions, though with very different running styles. Also, Justify’s SA Derby had slow fractions. That said, I like to see fractions that are reasonable approximations of what the KD will produce.
Each race constitutes a distinct and singular event, conducted under specific conditions at a particular track, with variables that are unlikely to be replicated in exactly the manner. Factors such as environmental conditions, participants form, jockey strategy, gate position, clean break, track variant contribute to the uniqueness of each race. Even if the same participants were to compete again several weeks later, the circumstances would differ sufficiently to produce a different outcome. The results are not fixed but shaped by ever changing influences. Today’s 100 Beyer or Thoro-Graph 1, might be 95 or 4 next time out.
I always compare the fractional times of the Stakes ran the same afternoon.
If you take note of the times in the Ghostzapper Stakes won wire to wire by (4-year-old) Grande who is a very promising Stakes horse you can have an idea of the track bias:
Grande: 24.57 49.42 1:13.56 1:37.89 ….
Fla. Derby: 24.10 48.80 1:13.00 1:37.32 ….
If Nearly had run :45 and 1:10 going two furlongs (in the Holy Bull) and was all in the Florida Derby one can suspect that the track was not as fast…
*Edit: going two turns
Regarding your lofty ranking, of Emerging Market ..the guest of Ray Paulick ‘s show had him ranked far ahead, of everyone, in stamina….not sure how he could figure that, after only two starts…Heck…Chrome liked 10 furlongs just fine…I’ll bet he didn’t figure THAT ONE….
Fulleffort looked fantastic working at Churchill this AM.
Fulleffort has never raced on dirt but his last two works over the Churchill track were quite impressive. In an interview following his latest work, Brad Cox expressed confidence that Fulleffort will have no problem making the transition from an AWT/Turf to dirt. I consider Fulleffort as a live longshot in the Derby.
BTW, Fulleffort’s sire line leads directly to Mr. Prospector and his broodmare sire line leads directly to Northern Dancer. The last time I checked, this mating cross has produced 19 winners of Triple Crown races. With respect to the current top prospects going into this year’s Derby, Fulleffort is the only horse that is bred from the Mr. Prospector/Northern Dancer cross. Just something to think about.
Hey Bill I got a couple questions, 1 – do you know who was the last of that cross to win a Triple Crown race and 2 – why do you think we’re not seeing as much of that cross going forward? Good look on your futures.
Robert
The last winner of a Triple Crown race, that was bred from the Mr. Prospector/Northern Dancer cross, was Mage, winner of the 2023 Kentucky Derby.
With respect to your 2nd question, beats the hell out of me.
Good luck to you as well.
lol on the 2nd. You’d think breeders would line up to get that cross given the proven success.
I totally agree with you, Robert.
Me too!
Working on my traditional “Red Flags” analysis, and only 3 colts as of now are showing zero red flags, pending Bris LP figs for the past weekend (92 and above is the “safe” zone):
Further Ado
Commandment
So Happy
Renegade has one red flag but just by a hair (Brisnet speed figure of 97, mean is 97.5 for a Derby winner).
I don’t have Thorograph data back far enough for statistical significance, but Steve mentioned above that Commandment’s low figure is a bit of a historical obstacle.
This is what makes the Kentucky Derby unique and a fun puzzle to try and solve. What other race can you apply your “Red Flags” analysis? Absolutely love this time of year and the build up to the big day.
For sure, it is the only race I spend over a month handicapping, ha. The two main factors of uniqueness in combination with one another: field size, and the universal distance stretch out attempt.
Ahahahaha … you got it Matt. For me, I plead the over on 1 month. Challenging and fun puzzle. Has certain constants: same location and time every year, always a cast of 3 year olds who have never run the distance and probably never will again and same pattern of prep races. Then add the variables and this year there are many. Stealing a descriptive I heard Andy Beyer use a few times, the word “inscrutable” comes to mind. Hope you find your Monarchos this year.
Thanks Paul! You as well… I am not sure I will ever enjoy being correct about a Derby pick than I did about Monarchos, but I can keep hoping.
Matt:
That is a great feeling: For me, it was $25 to win on Charismatic.
My likely starters with all boxes checked (20 boxes!) are Commandment, Renegade, So Happy, Chief Wallabee, and Potente. With 3+ weeks to go, that’s the most I’ve ever had. Plus, Further Ado and The Puma came up just one short. Great field.
I’ll give you a red flag for Further Ado. I didn’t like the lead swapping in the stretch. Yeah, you can do that with a 12 length lead (which makes me question his competition) but I don’t think you can get away with that against a Derby field.
LOl
Have you had this name since 2001? If so, I remember you!
Any word on Class President I have not seen anything about him since scratching Saturday….
60 days off for bone bruising.
Intrepido’s next up….1st of a few to defect before May 2.
I should have added that the list is of Derby winners.
Well, my long post is “awaiting moderation.” 🙁
So John Velazquez will ride Further Ado for the first time, Luis Saez will ride Commandment for the first time, and Tyler Gaffalione will ride Fulleffort for the first time. There’s an interesting history of the last 50 years for similar circumstances.
2020 *John Velasquez/Authentic (8-1)
2019 *Flavien Prat/Country House (65-1)
2011 John Velasquez/Animal Kingdom (20-1)
2009 Calvin Borel/Mine That Bird (50-1)
2002 Victor Espinoza/War Emblem (20-1)
1999 Chris Antley/Charismatic (31-1)
1994 Chris McCarron/Go For Gin (9-1)
1981 Jorge Velasquez/Pleasant Colony (7-2, individual betting choice)
The 2020 Derby gets an asterisk because it was run in September. The 2019 has an asterisk because Country House was named the winner many months later after a medication DQ of Medina Spirit. Therefore, the last “normal” Derby winner of this sort was in 2011. The most intriguing points are that (a) this has happened twice before with John Velasquez and (b) the only post-time favorite was in 1981; 5 of the 8 previous “first timers” were on horses between 20-1 and 65-1.
Do bettors shun this type of jockey change?
Great read down memory lane. Nice post. But Country House was awarded 1st the day of the race. Mandaloun was named the winner months later in Medina’s race.
Thanks, Robert. And thanks, too, for correcting my senior moment in confusing the 2019 DQ with the 2021 DQ. But it gets the asterisk regardless. 🙂
American Promise the Justify colt D Wayne Lukas trained for the KD last year running in 7th race today at Oaklawn.. Allowance race
Finished 6 of 7. Looked like the jockey just had him out there for a stroll. First time out since last spring.
Hi Everyone,
I am happy to say that I have been to the Kentucky Derby three times and I had the time of my life.
1999 Charismatic
2001 Monarchos
2003 Funny Cide
If you haven’t had the chance to go to the Derby, I highly recommend the experience – You will never forget it!
Good Luck To All on your Derby wagers this year.
David
Last time attended when Chrome prevailed.
If Alvarado had been a little more patient entering the stretch, he could have moved inside Nearly and probably won the race.
So if you like Chief Wallabee, you should thank Alvarado for elevating your Derby odds quite a bit. And hope he doesn’t over correct in the derby, go inside and get blocked (knowing going outside has cost him the win his last two).
There are very difficult split-second decisions, so I’m not criticizing Alvarado. Just pointing out how small the difference is between Wallabee being considered top 2-3 in the derby vs. now likely 6-7 best.
I actually like him a lot in this race. Looks like he had so much left in the tank after crossing the Florida wire.
Upon Dr. Steve Roman’s return to updating Chef-de-Race dosage profiles, it appears he has started with the current top prospects on this year’s Derby trail. Listed below are a few Dosage Index numbers that he changed.
Commandment, 7.00 changed to 3.44 (was speed oriented, now incorporates stamina)
Fullereffort, 7.00 changed to 4.09 (same as above)
Emerging Market, 3.00 changed to 1.81
Golden Tempo, 3.33 changed to 1.93
Further Ado, 1.86 changed to 2.08
Stark Contrast, 0.82 changed to 1.86
Chief Wallabee, 3.37 changed to 1.92
Silent Tactic, 3.44 changed to 2.20
Renegade, 3.00 changed to 2.20
Incredibolt, 3.33 changed to 2.40
Obviously, the most radical Dosage Index number changes were for Commandment and Fulleffort. However, the fact Dr. Roman made changes to several others is something to keep in mind.
Special thanks to Rob Austin for pointing out Commandment’s new Dosage Index number. This alerted me to check out possible Dosage Index number changes on several other top prospects. Hence, the list that I posted.
With respect to how these changes will have any impact on betting angles, it is up to the handicapper to decide.
From my perspective, Commandment, going from 7.00 to 3.44 was a real eye opener.
He checks a lot of boxes. He’s a must use in all exotic wagers, IMO.
Good luck to everyone.
Edit: Fulleffort (not Fulllereffort)
Maybe they’ll change the name to Monstereffort if he wins the Derby.
Bill:
Thanks very much for posting the updated dosage numbers; always has been a part of the handicapping process for an old-timer like me!
I corresponded by email with Steve Roman for many years: I learned a lot!
You’re welcome, biggy312.
Yes indeed, dosage numbers are certainly an important part of the handicapping process.
Mr Dawson, the chef de race listing of sires hadn’t been updated for about 10 years. It was defunct. So these aren’t changes that you posted. They’re fresh figures based on the inclusion of numerous sires. Where was the information posted? I’d be interested in seeing how many of the derby runners missed the 4.00 cut.
First off, thanks Bill for the heads up and Mike, you can find the numbers incorporated into pedigreequery.com. It was just a long overdue adding of chefs that no one had been updating due to Dr. Roman retiring. I highly doubt that Dr. Roman is the person who claimed that the derby winner had to be under 4.00 until Strike the Gold came along. It was due in large part to the pundits in the horseracing media and detractors ready to tear down the dosage theory. Over the last twenty years or more, breeders have bred the stamina out and it shows in how trainers run their steeds far less due to fragility and greed and less patience on the part of the owners to get that deal.
You’re welcome, Rob
You were the first to point out Commandment’s new Dosage Index number, and you certainly deserve credit in that regard. Fulleffort’s 7.00 number changed to 4.09 is something to consider as well, IMO.
Best of luck moving forward, Rob.
Thanks Bill, I will add that so far this century both Nyquist and Mine That Bird won the derby with a dosage over 4.00.
Spot on Rob.
Thank you very much, Rob austin. I remember knowing about the dosage Theory in the 1980s, and I was interested enough to refer to Dr Romans dosage website when it appeared later. I know that it wasn’t developed for the purpose of handicapping the Kentucky Derby, but Dr Roman certainly embraced it. He would have special posts every year that were very detailed about the Kentucky Derby contenders. We can now add one more thing to consider among a few thousand factors. Haha. Apologies for phone typos.
Hi, Mike C
I stand by my statement that Dr. Steve Roman has updated the Dosage Index numbers on the horses that I listed. Several months ago, I made printouts, (from Pedigree Online) on numerous horses that I thought were potential Derby prospects. The Dosage Index numbers have all been changed on the horses that I listed. At this time, I can’t prove Dr. Roman changed those numbers, but I suspect he’s the only person qualified to do so.
Hi, bill dawson. I didn’t mean to question the figures you presented. I was only trying to put it in the context of sires not being added for many years.
The guest on the Paulick Report…thinks Emerging Market is by far the most stamina-laden, when it came to his best distance ..he said 19 miles …
(he was exaggerating..,)…
That Paulick Report guest might get an argument from Robert and Lawana Low, the Owners and Breeders of Renegade. With Into Mischief on top, the dam side is inundated with stamina influence. His dam, Spice is Nice was a graded router, and her sire, Curlin should provide an abundance of stamina influence. His 2nd dam, Dame Dorothy was a Grade 1 winning sprinter, but her sire Bernardini should provide a ton of stamina influence. There’s also an abundance of stamina influence in Renegade’s 4th and 5th generation.
Renegade’s late pace figure of 109 in the Arkansas Derby, versus Emerging Market’s 96 in the Louisiana Derby is telling, IMO.
I ss there is a 6 year old by Run Happy who won two mile 1/8 races at Oaklawn this winter named Money Run. Last out he finished 4th in a Handicap behind Digital Ops going a mile 3/8 at Colonial.
Silver Charm…Real Quiet…..Medina Spirit….all ran 2nd, in The Santa Anita Derby…..
Gato Del So ran 4th!!
Ferdinand ran second to Snow Chief also.
Giacomo ran 4th
2 of them went on to win the Derby….2 for 3 good percentage…
(three I mention were trained by Bob, his left be 2026 starter Potente…ran 2nd, SA Derby..)..
Hi Steve,
I might have missed it, but do you have the TG number for Further Ado?
Thanks,
David
Negative-2
Steve;
Care to share So Happy’s number(s), or would that spoil your next column?
1/4
Thanks!
Wow! Thanks Steve
The Lexington is a puzzle. Maybe it’s as simple as the two Brad C entrants. Maybe not.
The numbers say that it is more wide open. The two Brad C runners are both coming out of races at Colonial Downs on the same day. But different races. I don’t like anything coming out of Colonial on the dirt. No offense.
The 2-1 ML favorite is Ezum, who romped by 19+ lengths. Confessional(7-2) has disappointed in his last two. Both Stakes races. Flavien Prat and Irad Ortiz guarantee low odds.
Call me crazy, but I’m looking at a horse that has never raced beyond 6-furlongs. Three races at three different tracks. One in Oklahoma, two in New Mexico. The H*** We Did looked great winning his last race at Sunland by 13 lengths. But he got a great setup by a horse that set crazy fractions before conking out on the turn. I like the trainer though. Todd Fincher usually means business when he ships into California. Sunland to Keeneland may be a bridge too far. 8-1 sounds pretty good.
The Lexington is the final Derby points race. Points that will surely go unused.
The Lexington this year is nothing more than a Preakness prep race. I’m playing a super/box in this one using the 4, 7, 9, 10.
Maybe in the future this race can upped to 30 pts to the winner, gets the needy a little closer to eeking in the Kdby field.
Best betting Derby….. EVER !!!!
It’s up there…..I thought 2012 was like this …but I agree with you, 2026 is a great wagering proposition!..
I wonder what the Thorograph pattern looks like for Chief Wallabee over this three career starts? I keep going back to the fact that after the Fountain of Youth, it seemed like all anyone wanted to talk about is how you obviously want Chief Wallabee over Commandment next time out with added distance. Then Commandment beats him again on the square and does it using a complete 180 from a tactical standpoint.
That Brisnet Late Pace figure of 121 makes total sense for Commandment based on how slow the opening fractions where that he ended up closing into. But I would imagine that Chief Wallabee’s number came back similarly strong given the fact that both were 2 lengths behind The Puma heading into the final 1/8, and Chief only finished 1/2 length behind the winner.
I’m intrigued by the Chief as a value play with upside, but wonder how much improvement we can expect for this lightly raced colt?
Monarchos! The most devastating mid race move in any derby prep, ever.
I recommend everyone watch the 2001 Florida Derby. Don’t blink on the far turn.
I agree and Monarchos repeated the same move in the derby for a nice score.
Congaree’s 3rd place finish in that Derby might be best 3rd ever! To contest that insane pace and finish was very impressive!
The race call said it all…
“The opening half mile was the fastest in Derby history”
“He ran as fast as Secretariat!”
Congaree was my Derby horse….he ran great just got beat by a better horse that day….ran the mile split in 1:35 flat which likely wouldve won any mile race in North America that day….unfortunately there was still a quarter o f a mile to go…alas, Monarchos came home like a runaway train…
Hi Monarchos Matt
Please keep in mind that I’m not questioning your sources regarding Commandment’s Brisnet Late Pace figure of 121, but the figure I came up with is 108.5, rounded off to 109.
Hopefully, when the Past Performance Sheets come out, just prior to the Derby, we’ll get clarification on Late Pace figures.
BTW, I have the highest regard for Commandment and have him at #3 on my list.
Renegade
Further Ado
Commandment
Potente
The Puma
Hi Bill! I haven’t been able to get my hands on the recent Brisnet PPs either, but I was just citing Mr. Haskin’s numbers above, where he states the monster figure of 121 for Commandment’s Brisnet Late Pace in the Florida Derby. This is a number that I pay a lot of attention to as it translates well to Derby aptitude, so I am eager to learn the number for The Puma, The Chief, Further Ado and So Happy.
I re-read Steve’s comments on Commandment in his Derby Rankings Week 12 and Week 11 and didn’t see any specific mention of Late Pace figures.
You might be referring to Thoro-Graph numbers.
The reason I’ve been so high on Renegade is the Late Pace figure he earned for his Sam Davis win, which was 111. Judging by the way he finished in the Arkansas Derby, I would think his Late Pace figure would be on par with 111, or higher.
Good luck Monarchos Matt.
It’s here in Week 12, underneath the individual horse profiles, called “Pace Makes The Race”. There is an entire discussion of adding the Brisnet pace figures together wherein many of these late pace numbers are given. See above, and good luck!
I stand corrected, Matt, my bad for not reading the “Pace Makes The Race” segment. Thanks for pointing that out. I should know by now that everything Steve has to say on his Weekly Rankings is certainly worth reading.
Dear Matt,
Your question about late pace may have been answered but…regarding late pace PP’s, Future Derby Pool 6 stats still on thefreepps.com (look under trainer, sire or however you choose) as of Thursday April 9th. Does not include stats from last Saturday. I am assuming this page will archive after today. Best of luck!
Please allow me to chime in for a moment, Michie Able.
I did as you suggested and printed out all 40 entries listed in Pool 6. I make a point of reviewing the ending segment, which lists Speed Last Race, Back Speed, Current Class, Average Current Class, Prime Power, Early Pace Last Race and Late Pace Last Race. I was somewhat shocked to see Fulleffort listed first, at 146.0 on the Prime Power segment.
Anyway, many thanks for the heads up on the availability of Past Performances. I used Brad Cox as a point of reference.
Thank you Michie! This is huge.
Sometimes that little number in upper left of DRF PPs, late closing speed, comes in handy,
Monarchos Matt, the Florida Derby had one of the most interesting Late Pace figures I’ve ever seen in a derby prep. The top four finishers had triple-digit numbers: Commandment 121, The Puma 117, Chief Wallabee 117, Nearly 108.
Maximum Security had a 123 in the 2019 Florida Derby, Bodexpress 118, Code of Honor 115. I don’t have the number for the 4th-place horse, Bourbon War, but I’m sure it was close to Code of Honor’s 115.
Renegade, The Puma, Commandment, Chief Wallabee, So Happy, Incedibolt, Pavlovian, Danon Bourbon, Albus, Golden Tempo, Wonder Dean.
And the answer is ???
Hi Paul,
If I had to pick one today it would probably be Renegade.
Hi Lynda
Just wondering why Further Ado didn’t make you list.
Thanks.
Hi Bill,
Was trying to keep the list at 10. As you can see I went 0ver by one with Wonder Dean.
It was a choice between Golden Tempo and Further Ado.
Rarely do I have a list of ten. So admire all of you that do!
Not my final 5. Want to see some works and how they all travel over CHD.
Been watching their arrivals at CHD as they come available.
Wonder Dean has the sweetest personality.
Thanks for the reply, Lynda
All of us have our favorite Derby prospects. Hopefully, all stay healthy.
I noticed that you have Renegade listed first. I have him listed first on my Derby Watch list as well.
Go Renegade!!!!
Remember Forever Young’s sweet personality. Cracked me up as jockey would let him come up to the fans and say Hi.
Does anyone know if Brad Cox has named a rider for Fulleffort?
There’s a couple of good jockeys still available. Universe not going to the Kdby, Brian Hernandez the jock.
Iron Honor is questionable per Chad Brown, Manny Franco usual jock. Talkin’s probably going to the Pat Day Mile, Joel Rosario’s available. If Chief Wallabee doesn’t make the gate, Junior Alvarado’s good to go. There’s a few good ones Fulleffort could get to ride him. I’d like to see Alvarado get it.
Those are all good riders on your list, CC. Then, there’s Brad’s former 1st call rider, Florent Geroux. You have to wonder what caused that relationship to sour?
Tyler Gaffalione’s agent, Matt Musikar, says that Tyler will ride Fulleffort in the Derby. A good fit in my opinion. I’ll use him in the exotics.
Tyler?!!…..Good fit. I like Fulleffort as a longshot to make it ITM….Silent Tactic and Wonder Dean as well….WIDE open race IMO
Yeah, I might have jumped to conclusions a bit as Tyler and Fulleffort have never met, but I think that Tyler’s skills are best exhibited when riding stalkers. He has a good clock in his head and can time his move to rally in the stretch which fits Fulleffort’s running style. Now, if we can just avoid those traffic jams, ha, ha.
Johnny V on Further Ado and Luis Saez on Commandment are more than capable replacements. Both have Derby pedigree. Well, sort of, in the case of Saez. Luis Saez gets a great chance to comeback from a heartbreaking situation. I wish him well.
Here’s one for all you Exacta Players in the Kentucky Derby. Going all the way back to 1991, I didn’t go back further than that (this includes a lot of smaller fields than 20), no Horses who ran first and second in their final prep have ever finished first and second in the same order in the KY Derby. Only once has the order been reversed. In 2003 Funny Cide after finishing second in the Wood turned the tables on Empire Maker who won that years addition of the Wood. That is an amazing stat not to take lightly. It would eliminate a Commandment over The Puma exacta to mention one.
Congoree/ Monarchos — wood— would have been the first except for Invisible Inks long neck in 2001; an exacta near miss for me.
Here are some of my all-time favorite Future Wager odds from pool 6.
The runner-up in the SA Derby is 16-1, the horse who finished up the track is 18-1, snd the decisive winner of the race is 93-1
When was the last time the first and second place finishers of the Wood Memorial went off at 173-1 and 317-1?
What if someone told you that you could hsve the Blue Grass Stakes runner-up at 208-1?
Weird year.
I second that. Just like #1 and #2 in week #12 rankings were maidens in February and March. A very weird year.
Indeed, based on my quirky pedigree angles where I only handicap for the winner, I’ve eliminated all the US domiciled horses. I have never had that happen before. This year I have to look international. I’ve eliminated Wonder Dean but Six Speed makes the cut. Six Speed is born in the US and domiciled in the UAE. Not sure who the third international horse will be so have to check him out later.
Breaking News!
Paulick Report has just confirmed that Irad Ortiz Jr. will ride Renegade in the Derby.,
Also, John Velazquez will ride Further Ado and Luis Saez will ride Commandment.
Thanks for the information Bill.
As I foresaw Luis Saez was chosen by Brad Cox to ride … the bold and resourceful jockey did a great job with Cox’s Tappan Street last year.
I am leaning toward using Commandment as my key horse in the Derby… Johny V is a great partner to the son of Into Mischief….
You’re welcome, Nelson
Yes indeed, Luis Saez is an excellent fit for Commandment. He knows the Gulfstream Park track like the back of his hand, winning riding titles on several occasions. Commandment has been in my Derby Watch since his maiden win back in November. After winning the MMM and FOY, I moved him way up on my Derby Watch list.
You can’t dismiss any of these Into Mischief colts, (Renegade, Commandment or Potente). Unfortunately, we lost three Into Mischief colts (Ted Noffey, Plutarch and Canaletto) for various reasons.
I plan on keying Renegade, Further Ado and Commandment on top, in the first three slots, with several underneath, (yet to be determined) in a superfecta wager. I plan on taking a shot at the Super Hi-5 as well.
Good luck, Nelson.
Remember L Saez was the jockey that got Maximum Security dq’d. A very dirty rider who could have gotten another jockey killed in that edition of the Ky Derby. There was a photograph taken where the horse behind MS, his front legs were in between the back legs of MS. It was devine intervention that something terrible didn’t happen.
Flavien Prat’s preakness ride was more dangerous than anything Saez ever did, IMO.
Yes, War of Will had to check sharply and could have been a disaster; but Luis Saez did nothing wrong … Maximum Security was spooked by a liverpool in the sloppy track. He tried to shy away from that puddle and the jockey could not do anything about it.
In the slow motion replay one can see the horse pricking his ears while trying to jump over the water pool and veering slightly to his right at the end of the last turn.
I agree. It was an iffy dq. Gafflione on war of will did not object. It was sour grapes Jon Court on an also ran who got things started with an objection.
Todd…Mr Sour Grapes as you call him had every right to object…Long Range Toddy was deprived of a legit chance to win the derby…he was making his move and picking up steam and would have made a legitamite run to the wire…mad max interfered and Jon Court objected…it should be obvious to you…
It appears you had it right all along, Bill; you were just a little early. I hope it turns out to be the right choice, but I’m still not sure. In the discussion about jockeys I haven’t heard anything about Irad’s fourth horse Fulleffort. Does he have a rider yet?
Hi Jiffy
As far as I know, Fulleffort’s rider has not been announced. Stay tuned.
Edit, now I’m hearing that Tyler Gaffalione will ride Fulleffort in the Derby.
Thank you. He’s a good choice.
In the Renegade-Further Ado debate, leaving numbers aside, i much prefer Renegade’s stride, which is what i look for at 10 furlongs. Renegade looks powerful; i did not like FA’s stride at all.
I thought it was Prat who objected. You mean I’ve been holding a grudge against the wrong jockey all these years? lol
They both claimed foul.
Doesn’t matter who objected…what mattrred most is that the stewards showed the guts to do the right thing and DQ max….its obvious!
For any Old Schoolers that still believe, Both Commandment and So Happy carry a Dosage Index of 7.00. Commandment only has a C+ True Nicks Rating and reportedly no inbreeding through the fifth cross. So Happy has no reported Nicks Rating at all.
You are correct with So Happy, however Commandment carries a dosage of 3.44.
I’m looking at equineline 5X pedigrees for thoroughbreds and it still shows a dosage index of 7.00 for Commandment. Please inform me of where it shows 3.44. Thank you.
Just to chime in for a moment, Pedigree Online Thoroughbred Database confirms Commandment’s 7.00 Dosage Index, (an indicator of speed).
pedigreequery.com 3.44
After a ten-year absence, Dr. Steven Roman has returned and is in the process of updating Chef-de-Race Dosage Profiles, Dosage Index, (DI) and Center of Distribution, (CD). Several months ago, I made a printout of Commandment’s pedigree, which goes back five generations. It clearly indicates, 7.00. Evidently, Dr. Roman has updated Commandment’s Dosage Index to 3.44.
Bottom line, you are correct. Maybe we can put this to rest now.
Bill
Thank you for the information. That’s good news to hear . Been following the Dr for a long time. Thought he left us .
Excellent column! Really enjoyed in depth look at Renegade, and the addition of the 1950’s song lyrics!
Thanks Judi
Great read
Thank you Vince
Evidently, Irad Ortiz Jr. has not been confirmed to ride Renegade. In a recent interview, when asked which horse he’ll ride in the Derby, Irad responded by saying, “ask my agent”, (Steve Rushing). The earlier report that I read, stating Irad was confirmed to ride Renegade in the Derby was inaccurate.
Stay tuned for an “official announcement” on his choice of mounts.
I still believe they would go for Further Ado…
You could be right Nelson, but one thing to keep in mind, Irad is Todd Pletcher’s go to rider. Out of loyalty to Pletcher, I would think Irad will go with Renegade to stay in good graces with Pletcher. Renegade’s late pace figure of 111 in his Sam Davis win, speaks volumes. His 11.84 last furlong time in the Arkansas Derby versus Further Ado’s last furlong in 12.95 is something to consider as well. I haven’t seen the brisnet late pace figures in their most resent wins, but based on their respective last furlong times, you would think Renegade will receive the higher late pace figure.
Stay tuned for the official announcement on Irad’s choice of mounts.
It seems pletcher needs irad more than irad needs him….Loyalty? That only goes so far….Javier and Johnny V were “married” to pletcher…then they split from the program and havent missed a beat….Irad would be just fine if TP kicks him to the curb…he wouldnt miss a beat….
“Irad would be just fine if TP kicks him to the curb”
Very doubtful that Todd Pletcher would ever kick his best rider to the curb. Why breakup a good “marriage”, between Irad and TP?
Your comment leaves a lot to be desired, IMO.
Dom, always amusing when a some in life view themselves as” that stirs the drink”.
Correction: straw that stirs the drink.
LOL, 🙂
Thanks for your intellectual reply, Dominic. 🙂
Agreed Dom. Pletcher isn’t “only ride in the park”.
So does that mean that you are considering Incredibolt’s final furlong in 12 flat, as well? Because you didn’t mention him.
Incredibolt is another horse I like.
Actually Nelson, Further Ado might be better served without Ortiz.
This is a good point Mike… On a deeper look I believe there are many other very very good riders not only available but even better suited to Further Ado running style.
Agreed. Ortiz is great,however not fan of his sometimes reckless riding style.
Right on, Mike….There’s several people on here who’s opinions I value in terms of there knowledge of handicapping and the info they provide…and then there are others!
Everybody uses their own angles to handicap….speed figs for ex…i learned beyers and readcto of beyers books….they work for me but most people badmouth Beyer every chance they get
On the other hand I know nothing about Thorographs…but instead of being critical, I paid attention to our host explaining how they work and feel as though I learned a lot.
It’s all about info!
Good luck with your Derby selections!
Dominic, always enjoy your comments. Agree in relation one should employ whatever handicapping tool which works best for individual. Good Luck to you!
Thank you for the information, Bill. I have to say I was pleased to read it because I still like Further Ado and I would be happy to see Irad on him in the Derby. I agree with everything you said about the rider in your post from yesterday afternoon, and I would even carry it one step further–I think he was robbed of the Eclipse award last year, Flavien Prat, also a great rider, earned and deserved the award in 2024 but not 2025. A rider of Irad’s stature deserves to have a Derby somewhere in his resume, and this is a good year to get it. I hope Further Ado can be the horse to provide it, but Irad and his agent know a lot about both horses that I don’t know and their choice, whoever it may be, has to be taken seriously. But regardless of how things may turn out, your post brought some cheers here.
Thank you for the kind words, Jiffy.
I’m hoping that Irad goes with Renegade, because I truly believe he’s the best horse on this year’s Derby trail.
You may be right. I think those two horses are really close and it’s hard to say who is best. Maybe it’s partly sentiment, but I like Further Ado and on Saturday he gave me the feeling that anybody that happened to be behind him would have been left in the dust. As for Irad’s choice, I hope he chooses the horse that’s going to win. But it would be especially pleasing if that was Further Ado.
I read your words every year about the Kentucky derby horse’s…and you are smart about Pavlovian… and Emerging Market and G.T …good luck Steve
Thanks for all your work on the trail so far this year, Steve. It’s almost definitely a personal problem, but I find this colt crop frustrating. No picks for me until we see the morning works shows, but I am very jealous of Andie Biancone. I hope they didn’t get in trouble with the big boss!
For those who followed The Player aka Angus, he is know living the good life at the Kentucky Horse Park!
Thanks Lynda!
Always loved him. He’s living his best life! Kudos to the owner for making the best decision for Angus. May he live long and happily.
Maybe a jockey musical chairs contest is the way to sort the jockey shorts out?
Those of you have ridden on a musical chairs class will get this.😂
Question, is Johnny V not a go to for Todd Pletcher?
He used to be.
I’m so happy to see Renegade in his well-deserved #1 spot. There is absolutely nothing not to love about a colt that has every appearance of being perfect.
I’m also so happy about So Happy. Particularly that you’ve acknowledged that he DOESN’T have a sprinter’s pedigree which seems to be his tagline. I have no idea why Runhappy was a sprinter; his pedigree doesn’t scream a distance limitation. With Blame on So Happy’s bottom line, he is bred on my favorite strategy of speed over stamina. Do I think he is within 10 lengths of Renegade? No. But, give him credit where credit is due.
And he was given credit.
Yes, Mike he was. It made me “so happy” that Steve Haskin did so.
I have found flaws with all US domiciled horses this year. Not like last year, when Sovereignty was perfect. Regarding Renegade, Into Mischief sire has only produced 2 Kentucky Derby winners, Authentic and Sovereignty, and both had Secretariat in their 5th Generation. Renegade does not. So Happy has a Brisnet sire AWD stat of 6.6. At least 7.0 is usually associated with the winner. So for me, not perfect. But somebody has to win.
Difficult for Renegade to prevail if drawing the rail, yes?
I prefer to look more at the dam sire AWD for this feature. The Puma 8.2, Chip Honcho 8.1 , Ottinho 8.0, Emerging Market 7.8, Chief Wallaby 7.7. A few of those names wouldn’t shock me if found in the winner’s circle. There’s not a ton of obvious early speed this year but the foreigners can shake it up a bit. Emerging Market and/or Pavlovian could attempt the Mystik Dan trip and hope the wire comes before the formidable closers. Shaping up to be a good race. As far as the rail comment goes, they have the new gate which makes it less dreadful. I also don’t think that impacts a closer so much who drops back anyway, and it might even be advantageous for a horse like Pavlovian who appears to like being at or near the front. The 14-15 post area scares me more these days as that’s where I see a lot of stuff happen out of the gate.
Bloodline trivia: So Happy has a tail female line that I find very interesting. You have to go back 9 generations to find a tail distaff mare that wasn’t a winner. The non-winner, Golden Haze (gen 9), was BT placed and someone liked her well enough to breed her to Man O’ War.
No idea where So Happy goes from here, but I’ll certainly be following So Cunning’s offspring.
Posts like this spark an interest so I looked it up. I noticed she was bred to Man O War 9 times! Nice find and thanks.
Robert, how cool! I’ll have to look up Big Beauty’s siblings now. I enjoy the bloodlines (and names!) of the past. It’s nice to know that someone else does, too.
Lets all remember California Chrome with Lucky Pulpit as his sire & Love the Chase as his dame. Chrome was inbred 4×3 to Mr. Prospector. I am sure everyone remembers him.
I am stuck on So Happy & The Puma.
I am most likely throwing up 40 footers & won’t hit the rim, but I believe a longshot will win the Derby.
Thank you Steve for all of your tireless work.
Hello Deacon. Stated for weeks The Puma is a major player for Derby. He’s progressing.
Tie me Kangaroo down, sports.” What a hilarious reference!
Without giving out Thoro-Graph numbers yet I will say Further Ado ran a monster number, the Wood came up very slow, and So Happy knocked it out of the park. Moves way up in my Rankings. Potente regressed from the San Felipe. So Happy’s pattern sets him up for a big effort, now right up there with the leaders based on his numbers.
Thank you for valuable and actionable update!
I wonder if Right To Party has the best Thoro-Graph number in the Wood, I would think he did. I thought Albus was 2nd or 3rd best in the Wood and I thought he had a real shot to win. Albus is a complete toss for the Derby but I wouldnt completely right off Right To Party chances to possibly hit the board. Sounds like Right To Party is a head case though.
I agree with So Happy. He improved like a good horse should second time two turns. His style is awesome for the Derby. I am also perplexed about Potente. I would not forget about him. Your top 5 seem to be the same. I mean they run differently but their speed is the same. No true favorite this year.
Intriguing. Looking forward to the numbers reveal.
Hi Steve,
Read somewhere that Further Ado was trying to jump the tractor markings.
Also someone said that he will skip the derby. Any info on that?
Regarding Danon Bourbons race, is there info on his last 3 Furlong time and also his last furlong time?
thanks.
He didnt jump the tracks just changed leads, hes not skipping the Derby, I haven’t seen hia last 3/8 time.
Thanks Steve.
From HRN Danon Bourbons numbers were 35.80 and 12.60 but they mention meters, don’t know why.
Hi Gary… I had posted Danon Bourbon’s time of his last quarter after the Fukuryu was run.
The following are the split times in 1/10 seconds for every 200 meters which are the units used in Japan.
12.30 11.10 12.20 12.70 12.50 12.50 12.60 12.50 12.50
The track was labeled as muddy but the dirt at Nakayama race track (from various videos I have watched) resembles beach sand and when it is wet feels actually faster than when it is completely dry. Regardless, Danon Bourbone time for the 1,800 meters was a full two seconds faster than the standard that very day at Nakayama.
The way Danon Bourbon moves and his powerful kick makes him an intriguing horse in the Derby. The son of Maxfield might cheerish coming back to his home Kentucky and run the race of his life the first Saturday of May.
Nelson, please allow me to chime in for a moment.
I agree with your assessment of Danon Bourbon, so much so, that I boxed him with Potente, in a $20.00 exacta wager, in Pool 6.
I probably should have boxed him with Renegade, as well, but his 4-1 odds offered little value, IMO.
A Potente/Danon Bourbon finish would pay $8,370
A Danon Bourbon/Potente finish would pay $9,240.
If I’m not mistaken I saw that on a video (don’t know the person who made the video).
But I’m disappointed that in the live video, they did not show any buy one split time and the next we saw is the finish time.
If only they did that, it would attract many new handicappers to bet on those races.
IMHO split times (especially the last part of the race) is very important and I don’t understand why other countries are not willing to incorporate them in their system.
In the Horse Racing Japan site under “Racing” tab you can go to “JRA Card & Results” and pick the date in the calendar to see the full results of the races per race track.
Beneath the table with the order of finish there are the sectional times and split times in 1/10 seconds.
For March 28, 2026 at Nakayama race track the 10th race (Fukuryu Stakes) we can see:
12.3 23.4 35.6 48.3 60.8 73.3 85.9 98.4 110.9
12.3 11.1 12.2 12.7 12.5 12.5 12.6 12.5 12.5
As you noticed, Japan Racing Association replays don’t show split times or cumulative times and distance traveled like they do at Meydan . JRA only showS the speed in Km/h and the slope of the track segment in percentage.
There is an article on DRF that Oaklawn is considering moving the Arkansas Derby back to 3 weeks before the Kentucky Derby. The story also mentions that they drew 72,000 people at this year’s Arkansas Derby. Huh???? That sounds like a very successful day to me. Why mess with success?
Take a look at the horses in this coming Saturday’s Lexington. The final Derby points race. Sure, it drew 11 entries. But not a single one of them is likely to end up in this year’s Kentucky Derby. Is that the kind of horses they want to make up the field for their Arkansas Derby? The trainers don’t like coming back in just 3 weeks. Not these days. Oaklawn can wave goodbye to horses like Renegade and the seemingly popular Silent Tactic.
Will they draw 72,000 people to watch The H*** We Did, Ezum, Confessional, and
I Did I Did? Second raters IMO. No offense. Those are the kind of horses that are entered in this year’s Lexington 3 weeks before the Derby. A good betting race? Probably. If you can figure it out. Which I haven’t yet. It’s giving me a headache.
I heard the per capital wagering amount was quite low, and there were many children, in that 72,000 crowd ..
(capita)
Per recent announcement, Irad Ortiz Jr. will ride Renegade in the Kentucky Derby.
Over the years, Irad as acquired a reputation as an “aggressive rider” and has been suspended on a number of occasions for just that. However, from my perspective, it goes with the territory. The one thing that you can never question is his courage.
After been thrown from his mounts, on several occasions, he has never shown a reluctance to keep riding. I consider Irad as the best rider in this country and possibly, the entire world. His decision to ride Renegade speaks volumes, and a clear indication that Renegade is the horse to beat in the 2026 Kentucky Derby, IMO.
Thanks for the update Bill.
To me, Further Ado is better suited for a likely moderate pace in the Derby; but Irad and his agent have solved their “quality problem” by choosing the favorite to win the Derby.
Irad Ortiz Jr. and Flavien Prat are exactly the same age (the former DOB being Aug 11 1992 and Aug 4 1992 for the latter). The french rider is working really hard to dethrone Irad and he is making headways toward that purpose… but Prat, in my view, made a mistake choosing Emerging Market … many see the son of Candy Ride as a top tier option to win the Derby but I would have picked Commandment easily; however, it might be the best decision from business perspective for Prat and his agent.
Luis Saez could get Commandment or Further Ado; the great Johny V is available though…and I would also like to see Tyler Gaffalione getting a good one for the Derby like Fulleffort; but the gray could go to Vincent Cheminaud.
Jaime Torres has to decide between Albus and Incredibolt. He would go for the latter most likely.
Anyway, there is some lesson to be learnt by Brad Cox who relied too much on one jockey to help get his horses into the Derby and ends up without one for his three hopefuls. Diversifying is a good idea especially with the abundance of very good jockeys out there…
You’re welcome, Nelson
All your points are well taken and certainly agree that Luis Saez would be a good fit aboard Commandment. Since Johny V is still available, I’m wondering if Bob Baffert will opt for him, rather than sticking with Juan Hernandez aboard Potente. Hernandez would probably be crushed if he lost the mount.
Also, Johny V could opt for Further Ado. It’s hard to believe that his Hall of Fame rider has not secured a mount in this year’s Derby, (at this point on the Derby trail).
Good luck, Nelson.
Question, is Johnny V not a go to got Todd Pletcher?
Hi Lynda
The last I heard, John Velazquez has yet to secure a mount in the Derby.
It’s still early, so you would think he’ll get a mount sooner or later. Cox needs a rider for Further Ado, so why not use Johny V?
I don’t understand the big delay on this issue.
What recent announcement did you see Irad O Jr riding Renegade?
He didn’t
Irad would have made a fine fighter pilot!
Because he has the reputation of being an “aggressive” rider?
Forget looking for value from a wagering standpoint — Commandment is the most versatile horse in the Derby. Prat would be making a mistake opting for Emerging Market. Give me the horse who can navigate through tight windows and gobble up ground at the end regardless of pace. He’s a big bully who seems to know where the wire is and he doesn’t let horses by him. Sure, the derby is a different beast and he might not be bred for 1 1/4 compared to others in here BUT he had plenty of horse in the FL Derby and has already enjoyed winning at Churchill very early on. Now, the post draw can always screw things up but we shall see!
You gotta love a horse who is a fighter, wants to win, and isn’t afraid to bull his way through horses.
We know the Derby is as much about eliminations as it is selections. I do not share the love for Emerging Market & Chief Walabee.
The best Candy Ride Derby finish was Gun Runner for the Show ticket. I’m not so sure Brown might again shoot for Baltimore.
I think the Chief Walabee hype has more to do with Florida Derby recency for Mage & Mott.
Could we have another Hoffburg?
lol CW is far more than hype. If we want to talk about hype, don’t get me started on some horses out west.
I, too, like FA more….it it was me I would choose FA.mostly because his trainer isnt batting 3 percent….just saying…
*3 % in the Derby…
Hi Mike…response meant for Andy….
Hello Dom. FA, no doubt is major talented. His stride is impressive.
Mott had nothing to do with Mage
Mage won after 2nd place Florida derby
Mott’s horse won after 2nd place Florida derby.
Thus. The recency interest in non winners of the Florida derby like chief wallabee
What exactly is the connection between Mott and Mage? …and the answer is”. Nothing
lol.
Hey, mark … glad to see you back
Last year I thought it was a two horse race, I already had futures money on Journalism, so only bet on Sov, on Derby Day, and the $10 ex box paid $248—this year ain’t like that!
Been on The Puma – Golden Tempo bandwagon from the get go , so I will stick with them for sure. I do think Renegades breeding is off the charts and could likely be a horse to use for sure. You can’t ignore Further Ado’s performance and he seems to never have a bad trip , so we don’t know how he will act faced with adversity . I just don’t see him winning the derby so I’ll pass but he has huge talent. Silent Tactic I have loved but I am just wondering if he now has seconditis . He seems to be full of run to get to the leaders but no kick to go by anymore. Really Liked so Happy in Santa Anita Derby and he answered the distance test but , I’m wondering if that is just because the rest of the field is just not that good. I just feel in The Derby with 20 horses and traffic that his breeding may catch up to him. So for right now I’m loving The Puma as my Top choice Renegade to be one I have to use. Golden Tempo as my sleeper.
That Renegade thorograph progression is incredible to see. If it continues he is definitely the winner.
In my family, we pick five horses for the Derby. I have had good years and bad years but I usually end up with one good horse in the top five. That said, my top five are Renegade, Further Ado, Golden Tempo, The Puma, and Commandment. Chief Wallabee is sixth by a very, narrow margin solely because your view of him had me laughing out loud at 07:30 without having had my coffee. Thanks Steve, I needed that.
Steve, Happy Birthday I’m sorry it’s belated. Today is my 70th. Never thought I’d make it this far. This is my 62nd Derby, Dad started me young and it’s the gift that keeps on giving. Derby Fever or some have diagnosed me with TDS ( Total Derby Syndrome) and The symptoms are a crazy like a fox smile and looking forward yet remembering the past and wonderful memories.. I held off on reading this post just to start the day off with a bigger smile. Are there any speed figures on the UAE Derby because like the song says “I think I’m turning Japanese I’m turning Japanese I really think so!” Thanks you give us a lot to think about Steve!
Thanks Derek. Wonder Dean actually got 1 1/2 Thoro-Graph number. And his pattern is excellent.. i had him high then lowered him to move up the California horses but I lowered him way too far. That will be corrected. I think he’s live.
Happy Birthday, belated Mr. Haskin! Thanks as always for captivating information.
Thanks Mike
Thanks Steve for the T Graph number. I heard Randy Moss say the UAE Derby was fast race and that confirms it. Wonder Dean shares a commonality with Forever Young with Deep Impact showing up on Gen 2 sire side. However, according to my quirky pedigree analysis Forever Young has Gen 5 Secretariat on both sire and dam side whereas Wonder Dean has neither. That is why I am fading Wonder Dean and picking Six Speed who also has Gen 5 Secretariat on both sire and dam side. For context, of the last 12 Kentucky Derbies, here are the winners with Gen 5 Secretariat:
’14 California Chrome
’15 American Pharoah
’16 Nyquist
’17 Always Dreaming
’19 * I count Maximum Security because his victory was stolen.
’20 Authentic
’21 Medina Spirt
’25 Sovereignty
So using my math, the Gen 5 Secretariat angle is associated with 67% of the last 12 winners.
I want to get more information on Delgado the trainer of The Puma. If I’m correct this is the second time in 3 years he’s taken a colt whi never started as a 2yo. Furthermore when they debuted they seed like speedster whom you’d never consider to be Derby material. Then he squeezes 2-3 races in between the Drrby and makes his horses seem like incredible stayers. What does this trainer Delgadio do? Is the the way forward from now on. He’s in a better position than Baffert, Brown, etc. Maybe you can do a deep dive into his wy of training
these young horses now adays. Baffert, Brown, get much better stock but Delgadi has somehow found the magic bullet per say on how to develop a horse in so little time. Thank you very much for another great Derby Doings column. Another question is when dothese foreign horses ship? Thanks again. I have Renegade on futures for the Derby but I’ll be rooting for Pavlovian because of your relationship with the name. I hope to see you and your daughter in the winners circle on May 2nd.
The Puma had actually started working in July but had to stop after three works so it’s not like he hadn’t had some foundation put into him as a two year old. It’s not that uncommon if you look for these horses to have shown some precocity prior to actually seeing them run at three. Mage is obviously his top success.
Of course they trained as 2yos. But The Puma and Mage appear to come from the same recipe of success. What is his training style. What does he have that Baffert doesn’t. Baffert just trains the sh##t out of his horses for as long as they can take it. He has a barn full of expensive 2yos in May. He just grinds through all of them. That regimine might be over now!! What Delgado has done with Mage and The Puma is unprecedented. I just want to know is how does he get to this place? Back in the day 2yo champions could go on and win the Triple Crown. Now the 2yo champions barely make it to run at 3. Times have changed and Delgado has proved that.
John, I’ve stated this for several years regarding his taxing training style. Like assembly line……next!
Mike. Isn’t it amazing that #1 and 2 were maidens until February and March. I know Renegade finished 1st and was dq’d but he was still considered a maiden!! Man times have changed.
Baffert also got caught too many times trying to keep those over-worked hurting horses of his going with therapeutics …. his day is done, thankfully!
Disgrace!
And also Vic. Is it not true the last Baffert standing and only one to make it yo the gate (maybe) is Potente. Unraced as a 2yo!! And yes I’m sure he trained as a 2yo. Jus food for thought. Vic.
But, as some say each yr. “He’s loaded”. Lol
They truly love their boy b b….if one of his horses shows up on May 2nd with only 3 legs his groupies will still bet him no end….love is a beautiful thing!
62 derbies is incredible!
Do you have a most memorable derby or favorite derby horse?
Dad started me young, I was enthralled with the spectacle of it. I didn’t really grasp the nuances of the sport till around 72. Of course Big Red, then the Affirmed/ Alydar rivalry. Genuine Risk my 1st in person Derby. Fell in love with Alysheba when he was 2. If he was running east of the Mississippi I was there till he retired. many during the 90’s, I really stuck my neck out on Giacomo early, to bad Afleet Alex didn’t get up for place but no complaints. The Derby keeps me young at heart. I remember an interview with Woody Stephens and was asked why he kept on training at his age and he said he just got a 2yo Danzig colt in the barn and that’s reason enough. that might of been Danzig Connection. Winning the Derby is an fantastic feeling, but if you lose your sort of reincarnated by just saying HI HO PIMLICO but I guess we can’t say that this year. HAPPY DERBY!
Now that all the preps are said & done, I’ll be rooting for Danon Bourbon. Was a big Maxfield fan, & ever since the first time I saw him run ( on video), I just love the way he glides down the track. This is going to be Japan’s year!!
Wishing all good luck & safe trips!!
Hi Jbumi
I agree with your assessment of Danon Bourbon, so much so, that I boxed him with Potente in a $20.00 exacta wager, in Derby Futures Pool 6. His win in the Fukuryu Stakes, at 1800 meters, was very impressive. One of these years, a Japanese colt will win the Kentucky Derby. Will this be the year? It could happen.
That would make me sad for the American horses, but it would be fitting for all the people who kept hyping Forever Young for so long.
I’m done analyzing all the final preps. My Derby horse is Pavlovian.
I can’t ignore battling head-to-head from start to finish for 1 3/16 miles, opening with 22.65 > 46.23 > 1:10.85.
Staying eye to eye with Emerging Market the entire stretch.
And still leading the gallop out somehow.
He’s run two solid races back to back, and this Lousiana effort signals a big jump coming, in my opinion. He has Giant’s Causeway in his corner. And Reddam Racing has Derby pelts on the wall.
Then I read what Steve had to say about him above, and he basically noticed everything I did as well. So, I think Pavlovian is the play this Derby. Win, Place, Show.. And key him in exactas and trifectas.
Good luck to everyone. Looking forward to reading how all of you see this race leading up to the first Saturday in May.
…..”and Reddam Racing has Derby pelts on the wall”. I love it, Kemo Sabe. I’ll Have Another was one of my best Derby scores. I cried when he got injured just before the Belmont. Good luck with Pavlovian, Roan Boy.
I’ll Have Another was going to win the Triple Crown…. his Preakness .. making ng up six lengths ha, in the last half mile against Bideneister—few horses could do that, only four races, as a three year old, he paid 42-1…4-1…15-1…7/2….today IHA rules the pastures of Old Friends, he’s the alpha!…
I’ll second that, Matthew. IHA could have been one of the greats as I feel he was just getting warmed up and the sky was the limit for him down the road.
It was bad enough that he was retired, but then Reddam sold him to Japan.
Uggh! At least we can now visit him at Old Friends and I plan to do that this summer. Good luck with your Derby picks.
That’s one of my favorite races! Seeing him somehow beat Bodemeister!
I totally agree Mathew, my son & I bet him in the Derby.
And Bodemeister was going away! It wasn’t like I’ll Have Another passed a tired horse…
I’ll Have Another is a great call! Congrats. And yes, it’s so devastating when the unthinkable happens. Hoping we don’t see that again anytime soon.
Pavlovian is definitely one I will be wagering on. I agree – dismiss him at your peril!
The Chief Wallabee’s comment made me look up the original “Tie me Kangaroo Down, Sport” song.
I also found the version with the Beatles making the choir. Memorable to say the least.
The song that sometimes plays in my head when it comes to horse racing is Rod Stewart’s “Lady Luck”; its verse 5 is pertinent:
“Lady Luck ….
So why don’t you give us all a break
Make us all rich and healthy and fine
Five months holidays and a four hour week
And a horse that wins all the time”
Horses like California Chrome, American Pharoah, Nyquist, Justify, and even Always Dreaming made their own (Derby) luck as they were at least five lengths faster than their peers throughout the trail.
Then you have Lady Luck smiling on Country House to make Maximum Security spook and trigger the first Derby disqualification in situ.
Lady Luck flirted with Mandaloun for nine months to finally make him the Derby victor.
Rich Strike was unbelievable lucky to enter the Derby at the last minute and Lady Luck remained on his side when the foreigners Summer is Tomorrow and Crown Pride tugged half of the field into suicidal pace.
Many people believe that Lady Luck smiled on Mage by the scratch of Forte.
Mystik Dan was very lucky to run by the rail the whole race and then Lady Luck made the two cousins, Sierra Leone and Forever Young, engage in a Jiu Jitsu brawl the last furlong and miss by a miraculous nose.
This year Commandment, Further Ado, Renegade, The Puma, So Happy, and Potente are so close in talent and promise that it won’t be a smile or a wink from Lady Luck that decides things… It will take her full-ethereal hug and a her magic kiss to tip the scales in the Derby.
I just hope that Lady Luck is not too busy on Derby day to offer me at least a pity nod …
Loved this!!!
I’ll take an exacta box with the author of this site to your comment(s).
Me too. Steve and Nelson….. two peas in a pod.
Mage was the only horse I bet win money on, and same goes for Mystik Dan….’Dan was LUCK, I bet him because of his inside post, I knew he liked inside seams, having won the Southwest, in that fashion….Mage was an overlay! I won $2200 on his beautiful win, a few days later I bought Mage, our three year old cat …if not for the right handed whip of Tyler G…Mystik Dan runs 3rd….Sierra Leone was a hard horse to ride, I think he should’ve won that Derby….
I had him too, Mathew and like you his win in the SW really caught my eye….
Hi Steve, do you put any stock in Danon Bourbon’s time in the Fukuryu being a stakes record and fastest in the 27 years of the race itself? The 1:50.9 was 1.2 seconds faster than Luxor and much faster than most years where it is run in ~1:53 – 1:54.
Its obviously very impressive and you have to put some stoxk in it but it has nothing to do with why i like him.
“So we tanned his hide when he died, Clyde, and that’s it hangin’ on the shed, All together now . . . .” Love that song. That makes my day, Steve.
I hope Silent Tactic isn’t taking after his sire, Tacitus, who had opportunities for wins–short fields of not too distinguished horses–but often settled for second.
Per Chad Brown, Prat will ride Emerging Market in the Derby. Now, the big question is, which horse will Irad Ortiz Jr. choose to ride, Renegade or Further Ado? I predict he’ll go with Renegade. There’s an outside chance he might go with Commandment, but I doubt that will happen. Stay tuned for the announcement.
I too don’t think he’ll choose Commandment–or Fulleffort. As for the other two, I just don’t know. Right now I’m hoping he takes Further Ado, but I could be wrong–they’re so chose. I wonder if any other jockey has ever had the mount on four of the top five horses on the Derby points list. I can’t remember it happening before. I love all four of those horses, and I can’t imagine having to reject three of them. But I will indeed stay tuned for the announcement.
Thank you, Steve, for your excellent writing and analysis. You are a treasure!
Thanks so much Lou.
Appreciate the rankings and well thought out takes as always. Was wondering if you had heard anything about Reagan’s Honor’s poor performance? With him basically just stopping and being off lasix, was wondering if he bled. Appreciate any insight you may have on him, was hoping Honor A.P would have someone in the derby this year, but alas…
Thank you. I will try to find out about Reagan’s Honor. Visually it would not surprise me if he bled but Im not sure what happened and if coming off Lasix had any effect on his performance.
Thx. Appreciate it.
Cherie Deveaux was on Steve Byk this morning and mentioned he came out of the race in great order. No mention of an issue resulting from the race, she did say it was a bit of a head scratcher. They will regroup, in a couple of weeks decide what’s next. See what is out there for him but right now he may be a need the lead type. I’m sure given how good he was looking working with undefeated Remember Mamba, etc it was unexpected.
He regressed because he wasn’t put on the lead. Simple as that@!
thank you for info/update
Never thought I’d encounter lyrics from ” Tie me Kangaroo down” on a racing blog!
Absolutely delightful!
Thanks Joanne im glad someone mentioned it.
Steve, your writing is truly exceptional. Thanks for another great read.
I watched the Louisiana Derby again after reading this, and you’re right, Pavlovian did everything but win. He might be an interesting longshot in the Derby.
Thank you very much Dutch. There isn’t much speed in the Derby.
Pavlovian might not and probably won’t win the Derby, but he’s going to hurt the speed/stalker types. #GUARANTEED. Horse is g.a.m.e., GAME!!!!. Additionally he’s looking like the lone American speed right about now. Nobody else likes to be on the front end. The 2nd place finisher in Dubai is a frontrunner. Gonna be about who gets the best trip in 2025, not the most talented. I’m waiting for the workouts over the quirky CD strip to make more definitive positions.
Excellent read, as usual. I’d also make Renegade my #1 provided Repole doesn’t get scratched out AGAIN. As such, better have a Plan B ready. Would slot Further Ado at #2. I don’t believe that was a Bellamy Road prep impersonation. Those hard charging Raise A Native sire line horses have proven tough in the Derby. Perhaps his maiden breaker was figure inflated. Gets a pass for quirky Tampa and coming off the bench. Could be a horse for course but could be nice general figure progression. Not sure I want to bet Commandment coming off a TG 4 that he was all out to snare when the horses that did pull it off were much better prices than this guy will be. Emerging Market has both room to improve in third start or massively bounce against a much classier field than last out. He’s one of the few that posted 100 Brisnet E1/E2 and was the best of those few with LP 96. Those are historically winning Derby numbers if replicated. If Prat lands on him then I’m almost certain to throw something at it given the potential price. Further, the Louisiana Derby has produced more than its fair share of horses hitting the board in the last decade. The field has some very strong closers this year but will have to catch a horse like this that should be closer to the front at the 3/4 pole. Pavlovian will be a bomb on the tote but flashed good early speed the last two and didn’t fade much late. Has some potential to spice up deeper exotics, especially if some of the closers fair to close, and that is usually the case in this feature.
I should have put Further Ado No. 3 at worst. Just waiting to see his Thoro-Graph number and hope its not another big negative number especially with how wide he was. I just wish Ortiz wouldn’t have ridden that hard to the wire. I also leaned a bit toward the Florida horses based on overall competition faced his two stakes wins.
David Grening in a DRF article said that both trainer Chad Brown and agent Jim Pegram has Prat confirmed to be on Emerging Market for the Derby.
Figured as much. You dont go off Chad.
Looks like we will be seeing a lot of Prat/Brown in New York this summer. Lethal combo much like Buick/Appleby we will get to see at Keeneland this week. Loyalty (that I’m skeptical about when it comes to most pilot selections the Derby) or the one he thinks is the better horse? I have a token $5 future wager on it at 42-1 and will add something additional given the expected gate price. One of a few I think have big upside potential albeit with ample downside with only two starts, but, if there was ever a jockey Derby future wager in January, I’d blindly put my money on Prat and JV.
His winning the 2 races he’s ran in, is less impressive to me than 1. HOW he’s won(2 dogfights), and 2. WHAT he’s done re the tracks/distance progression. To go from just over a mile at Tampa to 9.5 furlongs at Fair Grounds while stepping up in class and overcome a wide(while being herded by a game Pavlovian) trip, deems him as potentially extraordinary. Not a mile and a sixteenth to a mile and an eighth, one mile and forty yards to a mile and three-sixteenths. History is definitely NOT on his side re his lack of experience, but I love his projected price, his connections, and most definitely his pedigree. Time to turn up the focus.
Not betting on that duo
Jockey decisions to be made on several of the top runners still to be determined but you still have to wait see the weather forecast & Post Positions draw those need to be considered as much as who rides who more anything IMO at this stage. Bad post position & a muddy track changes everything….Additionally 3 of the runners listed don’t qualify on Dosage Index 4.0 with 3 others right on the borderline with 1 California Bred to boot.
So Happy 7.0 Fulleffort 7.0 Right to Party 7.0 eliminated them already.
Silent Tactic 4.6 Albus 4.3 & Danon Bourbon 4.0 right on the edge.
Pavlovian is a toss for me as well California Breds don’t fair well Decidedly won in 1962 then 50 yrs later more recently California Chrome won in 2014. I’ll take my chances with jockeys, post positions & the weather but even with the recent changes to how we handicap the Ky Derby history sides with the Dosage Index Formula even tho some discount it these days it’s been a money maker for me for a very long time & included in all my Las Vegas & Ky Derby Future Wager Exactas as well. Good Luck to all it’s all up to The Derby Gods now…..
.
Thank you Jerry for the Dosage numbers. Are you saying that besides those 6 horses you mentioned the rest are all under the Dosage of 4.0 and therefore qualify on Dosage? Thanks again for your post. I’m an old school horse player and I’ll take all the help I can get! LOL
Yes they do & even a few outside of the top 20 fit too.
Jerry I went to “Thoroughbred Horse Pedigree Query” and with the exception of So Happy the dosage Index of the remaining five horses on your list was substantially lower than your number. For example Silent tactic was 2.2 rather than your 7.6 and Danon Bourbon was 2.00 vs your 4.0. Am I misreading these #’s? Although Dosage has fallen out of favor, I’d still like to hear your thoughts on the apparent disparity. thanks
I’m hoping that So Happy gets stamina on the Runhappy side from his grand sire Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver, and his great grandsires A.P. Indy and Unbridled, and of course, Blame on his damside. He and Renegade are my Pool 3 bets.
My ranking isn’t based on stamina. I just dont know how good the California horses are and won’t until they run the Derby. If either one of them wins it certainly won’t surprise me. I just have nothing to base them on.
Good points, Karen….theres too much focus on his dad being a sprinter mainly because he wasca GREAT sprinter….Runhappy is the exception….So Happy has a family tree loaded w stamina including a derby winner and a horse who sired 2 derby winners
His Dosage Index is a 7.0 no stamina there. Claiborne had him for a Stallion residing in Secretariats old stall then sold him to South Korea all I need to know….
Good Luck
I believe Mattress Mack was the majority owner of Runhappy. When he decided to leave the thoroughbred business he sold Runhappy to Korea. Not saying he was a great sire for Claiborne but I believe the decision to sell was Mattress Mack.
Claiborne sold him to Korea when Mack went Out of Business threw in the towel
Dosage is so 70’s..
Really marvelous analysis this week, Steve. Clearly you’ve built up a head full of knowledge this Derby prep season and it was all bursting to get out. I especially liked your analysis about Silent Tactic having one quarter mile run in each race, and how important it is that he uncork it at just the right time on May 2. And I copied down your figures from the little math exercise with Brisnet figs. It was really enlightening to see how the numbers worked out, with Pavlovian having the highest score in his last race, the Louisiana Derby. And Golden Tempo’s 2 ½ Thoro-Graph number in the same race is really eye opening. That Brisnet group plus Golden Tempo may be the making of some nice superfecta bets.
Thanks Ms. I am officially drained. My final analysis in 4 weeks will have nothing to do with these final rankings. Things and thoughts likely will change by then.
You are welcome. Take it easy this week, or for at least a day. You really have earned it!
Once again, Thank You for everything!
My but the time passed by in a blink of an eye this year!
I have come down with Derby Fever!
Still sorting out my selections.
Looking forward now to the workouts and how all adjust to Churchill Downs and your pedigree and backstories!
Pedigree analysis of the horses, correction.
Interesting info for those of us concerned about CHIEF WALLABEE on the bubble: It appears that IRON HONOR might not go to the Derby even if he gets in & may be pointed to the Preakness instead. To paraphrase Chad Brown (per TDN), Iron Honor experienced a “rough race” in the Wood due to the far outside post. He hit into Red Zone Runner who “absolutely knocked him off stride into the first turn” & he could just not relax after that. Brown said as a result, Iron Honor had some bumps & bruises that he’ll heal from but he’s mostly concerned about the horse stepping up into a harder race with 20 horses in just 4 weeks after such a rough experience. Brown said he may take the next 2 weeks to make a final decision, but he admitted he’s in the process of “reevaluating what [he’s] doing with this horse.”
Chief Wallabee sitting at 23. The bubble is 50 this year, most unusual. Never known it to be this high.
I am sure Chad will make the right decision for Iron Honor. Unfortunate he was roughed up.
Lynda, thinking CW will be in starting gate next month.
Mike R, I too think CW will run in Detby.
At least two possible defections being floated will move him up!
Just a flukey year in my opinion and certainly not the norm for the bubble.
It never has been that high and it won’t be that high this year. My guess is that the last horse in could have points in the high 30s.
Possibly. Always believed the fifty points will be enough for CW.
Heck 57 points this yr doesn’t make the Oaks cut so far which is crazy
Yes, very usual.
Hi Steve
It’s hard to believe that twelve weeks have passed since you posted Derby Rankings Week 1. Quite obviously, your final Derby Rankings, is the “creme de la creme”. You saved your best Derby Rankings analysis for last.
That said, I’m in complete agreement that Renegade deserves to be ranked at #1.
However, I was somewhat surprised to see The Puma ranked at #2. I would have bet my last dollar that Further Ado would be ranked at #2.
I have several exacta wagers in the various Derby Futures pools that are still alive.
In Pool 6, I boxed Renegade with Potente, in a $50.00 exacta wager.
Best case scenario, Potente wins and Renegade finishes 2nd, which would pay $46,600. The reverse would pay $6,600.
In addition, I boxed Danon Bourbon with Potente, in a $20.00 exacta wager.
If Danon Bourbon were to win and Potente finishes 2nd, I would cash for $18,480.
The reverse would pay $16,740.
Are my exacta wagers a pipe dream? Probably.
Many thanks for all your hard work, week after week, it’s much appreciated.
Thanks Bill my Rankings are based on today. If Further Ado’s Thoro-Graph number isn’t through the roof and gives him room to move forward consider him No. 2. As for The Puma I still havent seen what he can do with a good trip.
Steve
I’m looking forward to seeing Further Ado’s Thoro-Graph number that he received in the Blue Grass. In addition, if you could provide So Happy and Potente’s TG number in the Santa Anita Derby, it would be greatly appreciated.
Thank you.
Edit: I thought those payouts were too good to be true. I read the exacta payout chart wrong. The chart was very hard to read (very small figures).
Potente/Renegade would pay $4,535.
Renegade/Potente would pay $3,320.
Danon Bourbon/Potente would pay $9,240 in my $20.00 exacta wager (boxed)
Potente/Danon Bourbon would pay $8,370
Bottom line, I need have my eyes checked for better glasses or just chalk it up to old age.
Also it’s according to where you get your prices from too. Twin Spires price them for $2 wager payouts while Xpressbets & others are for $1 had to go back & reevaluate some of mine from first couple of Pools because they pay twice as much as originally thought. For me Commandment with Further Ado & Renegade are $4003 & $5445 first Pool alone. They are only 3 horses left from Pool 1 & my Field wagers are high as well. Further Ado with Renegade is 16,501 , Commandment 5130, Emerging Market 11,094, Incredibolt 10.845 & Silent Tactic 3,256. Renegade is even more because a lot of these in first couple of Pools are before Ned Toffey was injured & none of the others are left standing. I will take any of these & several other combos not even mentioned. Glad I went back & refigured some that I bet on Xpressbets for dollar combos but figured payout on Twin Spires that were quoted @ 2 buck payoffs. Big Difference
Good luck with your wagers, Jerry
With the exception of Pool 1, I’m still alive in Pool 2,3,4,5 and 6.
Best case scenario, Renegade and Potente finish 1st and 2nd. Since I boxed those two, in Pool 5 and 6, the finishing order is of no consequence. However, if Potente finishes 1st and Renegade finishes 2nd, the exacta payout will be much higher.
Fingers crossed.
Correction Incredibolt was first Pool not Commandment
Were I to toss one of the top 5, it would be Further Ado. One, I question what was behind him on Saturday and, two, his 2 best races came at Keeneland. He clearly has a fondness for Keeneland.
Could be true but his first race there was his first time going a route & stretching to 2 turns. Second trip was coming off a long winter layoff with a Tampa race he was competitive in while def needing a race. Now with that under his belt & fact he has already won a Stakes race at Churchill while lots of others have not he just might be the goods too.
Wonderful read again, Steve—chock full of facts and conjectures—-you’re the best in all turfdom!
I was happy to see ‘my’ horse, Golden Tempo, back on the radar. Here’s hoping he’s learned a thing or two and kicks in like a great closer. He’s a sleeper, but then so was Mine That Bird!
Thanks very much. I like forgotten horses.😊
The jockey musical chairs is interesting and post positions could be key with 6 horses rated so close together.
The horse with the cleanest trip should be the winner.
Some of the lower ranked horses could easily run up into the tri and super.
I do see a lack of pure speed in the projected lineup. Which makes Pavlovian interesting.
But, as poster Mathew W writes, a 20-horse field can’t help but have a decent pace.
We’ll see.
Under Further Ado, did you do a takeoff on the classic Gracie Allen riff from Your Hat? Great Burns and Allen film. “Bobby Jones shoots par”.
I wish I had. They were brilliant.
Hi Steve … I am glad to see Six Speed make your list, albeit clunking in at #17. You say he is part of Japanese contingent. I don’t see that. He is born in the USA and domiciled in Dubai. Regards … Paul
That shouldn’t have been there. Its gone now.
Thanks Steve. But the penultimate sentence still says “So, like the other two Japanese starters, …”. I just want to make sure my boy is described acurately. lol
I know, there is something wrong with the page and it wont let me update, and Leonard is away.
I wanted to say something about how cordial and respectful everyone’s comments are. That is not true of most horse racing columns on the Internet.
Thank you Steve for your excellent insights. It’s not derby time without you.
Steve, your analysis is much appreciated. You are, in my view, the Oracle of the Adelphi Hotel. (My apologies to any mythologists out there.) I cannot recall a year when so many contenders fit the Derby winners’ contemporary historical profile. Complicating these considerations is the unprecedented relative inexperience of this probable field.
The top horses that I can’t separate are your top five plus possibly So Happy (pending further review, including Brisnet figs). For wagering, it’s looking like the Puma will be the value bet of those top horses. Potente and Fulleffort are long shot possibilities, along with the biggest question mark horse of all, Danon Bourbon.
May 2 can’t get here soon enough.
Thanks. I stayed at the Adelphi for a Feaure I did for DRF and it was like going back to the 1930s.
I only saw the Further Ado performance once—-and I thought about how Victor Espinoza stopped riding Chrome, at the 1/8 pole of the SA Derby, he also stopped riding him at the 1/16 pole, of The Kentucky Derby…..Further Ado was not whipped, but he was ridden all the way home, and mewonders WHY? They were 15 lengths clear ….I recall all the criticism, about Smarty Jones’s Preakness ride, not whipped so much as ridden hard—he won by 13……watch the Bluegrass, he is way out in front, did they WANT to crush that field?….
I mentioned that to Ned Toffey at Spendthrift
Waving the whip at him the horse jumped to his left lead. I want to see Johnny V get the mount.
That doesn’t happen often, it may not have been the whip waving and it’s Irad Ortiz’ choice. Why not ask Brad Cox?
Yes I did notice he changed back to left lead, late …someone mentioned Irad looked upset, in his after race I terview…did Brad have words, with him? Or..did Brad tell him to make sure they went the full 9 furlongs under a drive?…Maybe Irad was wondering how he was going to beat him, with Renegade? I did not like the stiff drive, for a horse that was so far in front….(I’m “trying” to leave him off my trifecta box, grasping for reasons..)…
I dont know what the instructions were if any. I know Spendthrift wanted this to make him a grade 1 winner, but he was a grade 1 winner at the eighth pole. Derby winners dont win their final prep by double digit margins, but I would guess Cox is not going to push him too hard in the morning. Look, he just may be that good. I just didn’t understand why he kept riding him to the wire. The last time he showed him the stick they were goingvlnover some tire tracks so that may be why he changed leads. I didnt get into all that. Plenty of time ro analyze everything.
If Ado is favored, I’ll likely throw a fifty, on Renegade ‘s nose….I like Renegade, Potente, Chief Wallabee…..rooting for So Happy! And am also interested in Golden Tempo, seems like even when there’s little speed (like this year) ….a 20 horse field gets a fast pace…
Steve, I’m curious to as to how you think the pace in the Derby will play out, especially among your top five?
None of them want the lead and they will be scattered about. Right now it looks like Pavlovian is the only one comfortable on the lead.
Agree on pace….it is always fast in the derby…love Golden Tempo….great rider, great pedigree and in good hands…win, lose or draw, Goden Tempo will like the final furlong as much as ny of them….
So Happy? He has more stamina than it looks…other than his famous dad, his pedigree is loaded with stamina…not to be overlooked….
Smarty Jone’s three yr old crop he had to face was not much.
Bonnie, WRONG!
Thank You, Mr. Haskin AND Happy belated birthday.
Thank you!
Thanks Steve for another year of valuable information of these wonderful horses that we all follow leading up to the KY Derby. The Japanese horses definitely look intriguing and both will be good odds at post time. Several IMO could win the Derby. I love to play the Pick 5 and will likely use 4 or 5 in the Derby hoping to keep my ticket alive for a chance to hit the Pick5. PP draw is always intriguing and very important in the KY Derby.
I originally had Wonder Dean in the top 10 but moved him down to move the California horses up a few slots. But he will be in my bets.