2026 Kentucky Derby Rankings – Week 2
We are going with a Derby Dozen this week, as we have a lot of questions to be answered in this weekend’s stakes. Because potential stars Nearly and Cannoneer are two of those horses, with both entered in the Holy Bull Stakes, we have kept them ranked No. 11 and 12 until they tell us where they should be ranked, which could be way up near the top. The same applies to Litmus Test, who Baffert has apparently taken out of bubble wrap before he even went in, and we will see if he can make it to Oaklawn Saturday for the Southwest Stakes. ~ Steve Haskin
PLEASE NOTE: MINUTES AFTER THE RANKINGS WERE POSTED, THIS WEEKEND’S UPCOMING SOUTHWEST STAKES HAS BEEN POSTPONED. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES…
Derby Rankings: January 27, 2026 – Week 2
By Steve Haskin
1. Ted Noffey (Todd Pletcher, Into Mischief — Streak of Luck, by OId Fashioned)
He is one of those No. 1 ranked horses that we’re going to have to sit on for a while, waiting for his 3-year-old debut, which likely won’t be until the February 28 Fountain of Youth Stakes, the same race in which Sovereignty debuted last year. Race record and pedigree aside, he passed all the visuals last year, especially the class he displayed in everything he did and and power he generated in his races, whether going one turn or two turns. There are some who feel his female family may be suspect going 1 1/4 miles, perhaps based on some of the names in his dam’s second and third generations. So let’s take a closer look at his female family. His dam’s grandsires, Unbridled’s Song and Elusive Quality, sired Travers, Breeders’ Cup Classic, and Dubai World Cup winner Arrogate and Kentucky winner Smarty Jones, respectively, both Hall of Famers. Ted Noffey’s third dam is by Saint Ballado, sire of Breeders’ Cup Classic winner and Horse of the Year Saint Liam and Hall of Fame filly Ashado, winner of the Kentucky Oaks and Coaching Club American Oaks. And his fourth dam is by Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner Pleasant Colony, sire of Belmont and Jockey Club Gold Cup winner Colonial Affair; Breeders’ Cup Classic and Dubai World Cup winner Pleasantly Perfect; Irish Derby and King George VI and Queen Elizabeth winner St. Jovite, and Jockey Club Gold Cup winner Pleasant Tap. So it would seem that if Ted Noffey is as talented at 3 as he was at 2, there should be enough stamina throughout his female family to enable him to get a mile and a quarter. We just have to keep finding things to say about him for the next five weeks, such as he had his second work back, breezing a half in :50 4/5.
2. Paladin (Chad Brown, Gun Runner — Secret Sigh, by Tapit)
He’s progressing nicely in his training, with his most recent work a solid half-mile breeze in :49 3/5 over the deep Payson Park training track. With only two lifetime starts, it’s still early to get a firm grasp of his preferred running style, but so far it looks to be just what you like to see in a Derby horse, which is the ability to sit right behind a pace, whether they’re going in :46 and change or :47 and change. Next you want to see if he can put in a strong run off either pace and then be able to pull away from his opponents, or if need be put up a fight if threatened. So far he has demonstrated he can do all three. When you embark on the Derby trail with only two starts it is preferable to have a solid foundation, and his two starts have been at a mile and 1 1/8 miles, so he not only has a lot of bottom under him, he is battle-tested as well. Can he run fast early if need be? He has a 98 Brisnet early pace figure. Can he keep up that speed during the race? He has a 100 middle pace figure. Does he have the ability to come home fast? He has a 100 late pace figure. So we know he has natural speed, tactical speed, and closing speed. If he returns and demonstrates the ability to utilize all three in the same race he will be a force to reckon with. Assuming he takes the same path to Louisville as fellow Chad Brown/Coolmore colt Sierra Leone, and with him apparently not having any of Sierra Leone’s idiosyncrasies, we should expect big things from him. Of course, he has to show he has his predecessor’s talent and ability to run big every race and at the highest level of competition. Judging from his first two races, we will just quote comedian Steven Wright, who said about his intent to live forever, “So far, so good.”
3. Incredibolt (Riley Mott, Bolt d’Oro — Sapphire Spitfire, by Awesome Again)
He turned in his second straight five-furlong work with an easy breeze in 1:02 1/5 at Palm Meadows. It will be interesting to see how he comes back in the Holy Bull Stakes in his first start since winning the Street Sense Stakes on October 26. He should be plenty fit after six works since mid-December, and we’ll see how he stacks up against the highly touted Nearly and Cannoneer, making their two-turn debuts following impressive sprint victories. We gave Incredibolt’s speed figures last week, including his Brisnet late pace numbers, and he has shown steady progress in every start. Although he displayed tactical speed in his maiden score, he most likely is more comfortable taking back and making a late run. So if he runs into a speed horse who runs a big race with that short stretch run and comes up short we would have no concern as long as he is closing at the end. This race is just to see how he made the transition from 2 to 3. As for his pedigree, there is a lot to like and the farther he goes the better. He is inbred 3 x 4 to A.P. Indy, inbred three times to Seattle Slew, and has A.P.’s Indy’s granddam Lassie Dear three times in his pedigree, giving him an extended version of the Rasmussen Factor (RF), being inbred to a top-class broodmare. The progression in his female family is extraordinary. His dam is by Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Awesome Again; his second dam is by Horse of the Year and Jockey Club Gold Cup winner Mineshaft; his third dam is by Kentucky Derby and Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Unbridled; and his fourth dam is by Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew.
4. Litmus Test (Bob Baffert, Nyquist — Study Hard, by Malibu Moon)
When Baffert said he was putting him in bubble wrap several weeks ago and planning on running him only twice, he firmly believed he was his best shot at having a true Derby horse. But he has entered him in Saturday’s 14-horse Southwest Stakes — so much for bubble wrap. He has been on s steady diet of half-mile works, and perhaps Baffert feels he is sharp enough right now to hit the Derby trail. But first, let’s see if they can get all the snow off the Oaklawn track and if he can get there, as Oaklawn isn’t the easiest destination to get to. He already has plenty of bottom, having run five times from 5 1/2 furlongs to 1 1/16 miles, three of them in Grade 1 stakes and one in a Grade 2 stakes, and never finishing off the board. He had already proved he could compete with the best 2-year-olds in the country when he was beaten only 1 3/4 lengths by the eventual champion Ted Noffey in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at odds of 21-1 after traveling cross-country and finishing third to him in the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland. And he was a horse who everyone loved from the time he was born to the Keeneland yearling sale, where there were two powerful parties battling over him in the ring. While he hasn’t blown the doors off anyone with his blazing speed or his explosive stretch runs, it is often the warriors who give 100 percent every race and keep improving that shine the brightest on the first Saturday in May. He does need to get faster, with his Brisnet speed ratings hovering in the low 90s, but when he was up against the likes of Ted Noffey and Brant in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, he did run a 102, with a 104 late pace figure and a career best “3 3/4” Thoro-Graph number, suggesting he will run as fast as he needs to depending on the competition.
5. Strategic Risk (Mark Casse, Noble Bird — Strategize, by Afleet Alex)
We have already established that this colt will run all day, and he complements that stamina with the ability to run on or just off the pace, winning on the lead going five furlongs and twice pressing the pace at 1 1/16 miles. We have also explained his only two poor efforts, according to Casse, both at Saratoga on dirt and grass. So just going by his last two races, in which he won stakes at Gulfstream and Oaklawn by a combined 13 1/2 lengths and running triple-digit Brisnet late pace figures each time, you have to consider him a serious contender who has found a top-class jockey in Javier Castellano after being ridden by four different jockeys in his first four starts. Castellano, who won the Derby aboard Mage in 2023, seems to fit him perfectly, giving him flawless rides in both his stakes victories. Also when you consider he won his career debut by 8 1/4 lengths, his average margin of victory is over seven lengths, so he has the ability to blow a race wide open at any distance. In the Smarty Jones, they crawled the first three-quarters and Castallano had to take a strong hold of him to prevent him from going after a 50-1 too early. All he did was loosen the reins a bit and Strategic Risk had no problem taking over the lead nearing the quarter pole and then opening up in the stretch when asked for his run. By coming home in :24 flat and :06 flat, he was virtually impossible to catch. He no doubt will face stronger competition in Saturday’s Southwest Stakes, and most likely a faster pace. and we should find out then just where he fits.
6. Commandment (Brad Cox, Into Mischief — Sippican Harbor, by Orb)
It took 20 days, but he had his first work back since his impressive victory in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes, breezing a half in :50 3/5 at Payson Park. He will now point for the Fountain of Youth Stakes on February 28, where he will get to prove himself against the likes of Ted Noffey and other seasoned stakes horses. Last week we emphasized what a strong finisher he is and how he keeps building up momentum in the final furlong and just keeps going at a strong clip on the gallop-out, distancing himself from the others. This week we will look at his pedigree. Of course there is little left to say about Into Mischief, but does Commandment have the female family to push him a little farther? Well, with his broodmare sire Orb having won the Kentucky Derby for the Phipps family, that is a good beginning. His dam Sippican Harbor won the Spinaway Stakes, but an injury cut her career short. Although his tail-female line is geared more for speed it does trace to stamina influence Herbager and deeper down to Calumet’s great sire Bull Lea. So even though it is not the pedigree of a true stayer I doubt it will prevent him from getting the mile and a quarter, as Into Mischief crossed with Orb and Malibu Moon should be enough, combined with all the stamina farther back.
7. Renegade (Todd Pletcher, Into Mischief — Spice is Nice, by Curlin)
Considering there is still a big discrepency in the Future Wager odds between him and his main rival Paladin, there is reason to believe that at 37-1 in pool 3, compared to 14-1 on Paladin, he could be a big ovderlay. But nothing compared to his 63-1 odds in pool 2, compared to 22-1 on Paladin. The latter may have a bit more upside at this point, but when he was put up on Renegade’s disqualification in their maiden race on October 17, that could have gone either way even if Renegade did come out and make contact just before the wire. So in my mind, Renegade is still a maiden on paper only. I will throw out his debut when he ran into that freakish 17-length demolition by It’s Our Time. But his two races stretching out to a mile and 1 1/16 miles were both excellent efforts, and the Remsen might have been closer if Renegade hadn’t been still stuck on his left lead when Paladin came up on his outside and was able to get an important advantage. Renegade did switch to his right lead at around the three-saixteenth pole, but Paladin had the momentum and simply outran him the rest of the way. I believe Renegade is going to keep improving, as his Thoro-Graph pattern suggests. His broodmare sire is Curlin and his maternal grandsire is Bernardini, so there is all the stamina you need right there. But his third dam is by Woodman, sire of Preakness and Belmont winner Hansel, and his female family traces to Mrs. Penney, winner of the French Oaks and Prix Vermeille and runner-up in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes. I think we’re going to see a lot more of this colt, starting with the February 7 Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs. That looks to be an excellent spot for him to get rid of the “maiden” tag.
8. Napoleon Solo (Chad Summers, Liam’s Map — Atomic Blonde, by Scat Daddy)
As we alluded to last week, this colt is an enigma. The blistering pace he set in the Champagne has been questioned by some, which means his slow closing fractions would also be in question. But the fact remains that his mile time was only a fifth of a second off the stakes record, and even with the track playing fast, that was flying, especially for a 2-year-old making his second career start. Some still question the early fractions of the Champage, but whether they were legitimate or not he did run fast. He looks to have recovered from a physical issue that sidelined him after the Champagne, and because of all the questions surrounding him I will not even attempt to predict what we’re going to see when he returns. Is he a remarkably fast horse who can carry his speed a distance or is will he prove to be too fast early and unable to sustain that speed two turns? And then there is a third question. Is he some freak with an amazing engine who can run his opposition into the ground regardless of the pace and distance. He did after all press the pace in his career debut so he is not totally speed crazy. I don’t like comparing American horses to European horses, but his first two races, especially the Champagne, remind me of what Frankel did to his opponents in most of his races, which is simply run fast from the start and keep going. He no doubt is not Frankel, but we are still intrigued by the way he wins in unconventional fashion.
9. Further Ado (Brad Cox, Gun Runner — Sky Dreamer, by Sky Mesa)
As much promise as he’s shown, I have to take a wait-and-see approach until he returns to the work tab after two months. We saw him skyrocket from a “10” Thoro-Graph number to a spectacular “negative-1.” While that is a monumental leap, there is also the possibility it was too big a leap and too fast a number for a 2-year-old in a maiden race. Although some were disappointed that his next start was more workmanlike and not as spectacular as his jaw-dropping 20-length victory, and the fact that he regressed six points on Thoro-Graph and Brisnet, I give him credit for jumping into the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes and winning (by 1 3/4 lengths) despite the regression. Looking at his four lifetime starts I’m not quite sure where that monster performance came from, but if he can get back in serious training and then start working his way forward from a speed-rating standpoint, he does that have that negative number to fall back on, considering they don’t run many Kentucky Derbys faster than that. And speaking of the Derby, the three fastest winners in the history of the race are all in his pedigree — Secretariat, Monarchos, and Northern Dancer. He also has all three Triple Crown winners of the ’70s in his pedigree, as well as the world record holder for a mile Dr. Fager three times. Who knows, maybe all that combined is where that negative Thoro-Graph number came from.
10. Blackout Time (Kenny McPeek, Not This Time — Beauty Parlor, by Elusive Quality)
He would be a lot higher if he wasn’t so far from a race, having just had his first work, a three-furlong breeeze in :37 1/5 at Fair Grounds on January 23, since being a vet scratch the morning of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Just to repeat, he’s been out due to bone remodeling in his ankles. With all that behind him he is back working and we can start looking at him as a serious Derby contender. But for now we have to keep him down here, especially with some big races coming up next week. Just to quickly go over his pedigree again, what is most appealing are the number of European stamina influences, mainly in his female family, including four English Derby winners and the sires of three English Derby winners. He has the look of a stayer and has a fluid, efficient stride, and you can barely see him change leads, he does it so smoothly. So far he has checked off all the boxes as they say, and it’s hard to find any flaws in him. Although I don’t use Dosage any longer, it is interesting to point out that he is a rare individual with points in all five categories, which includes both stamina categories, with a heavy dose of Classic influences.
11. Nearly (Todd Pletcher, Not This Time — Ib Prospecting, by Mineshaft)
His big test is coming up Saturday in the Holy Bull Stakes, as he goes two turns and faces stakes company for the first time. If he should run huge he will zoom up everyone’s list. He has already shown he has the takent, the mechanics, and the pedigree to become one of the Derby favorites. His attributes and his previous starts were discussed in depth last week, so all we can say now is just watch the Holy Bull and see if he displays all the same qualities he has in his maiden and allowance victories and can come close to duplicating that huge 110 Brisnet late pace figure in his last start. But perhaps most important is to see where his Thoro-Graph number goes after that jump from a “5 3/4” to a “1” last out. He surely can regress a little and still win or he can pair up the number, which makes him a major force in the races ahead. If he should improve off that “1,” then he either has peaked too soon or we are looking at a bona fide superstar. From a pedigree standpoint, he has an excellent blend of speed and stamina, and he is inbred three times to Secretariat, and has the aforementioned Rasmussen Factor, being inbred to Big Red’s daughter Weekend Surprise through her classic-winning sons A. P. Indy and Summer Squall.
12. Cannoneer (Brad Cox, Into Mischief — Catch to Moon, by Malibu Moon)
Take a look at what we said about Nearly and just use most of that to assess this colt, with the main difference being Cannoneer has yet to face winners, coming off a stunning seven-furlong maiden victory, in which he ran his seven furlongs in as blazing 1:21 3/5 and the runner-up finishing eight lengths ahead of the third horse. He was so highly touted in his career debut at Churchill Downs on June 1, he was sent off at an amazing 2-5. When he finished third after setting the pace under Florent Geroux, his connections admittedly were “shocked” that he got beat. But he did break slowly and was rushed to the lead, and when second choice Comport came alongside him after turning for him he simply was unable to match strides with him. It could mean nothing, but he did seem to react a bit after being hit left-handed, shying from the crop just before Comport took over the lead. Perhaps what was most disappointing was losing second to Password, who was well behind him at the eighth pole. But the horse everyone expected to see did show up big-time in his second start with a jockey change to Irad Ortiz. Despite having a clear lead in the stretch and running straight, Ortiz did hit him once right-handed and he didn’t seem to like that either. The Holy Bull will tell us a lot about him. We will see if they use his speed again going two turns or try rating him, or even if there is anyone capable of outrunning him early. This should be a fascinating race.
KNOCKING ON THE DOOR
Seeing INTREPIDO’S five-furlong work in a bullet :59 2/5, fastest of 21 works at the distance, I still can’t fathom how he was allowed to go off at 87-1 in the pool 3 Future Wager. I can understand why he wasn’t bet heavily coming off a pretty dull fifth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile over his home track, but he did break in the air at the start and dropped back to last, which is not where he wants to be, and just did little running after that. You can forgive that one bad race or you can believe he’s just not as good as the top-rated colts. But letting a Grade 1 winner who has the pedigree and running style of a Derby horse get away at those odds, it’s apparent no one is forgiving that last race. It’s also possible that all California horses not trained by Bob Baffert get a bit lost and he sure looks like one who has been totally forgotten. He’s not quite in my Top 12 yet, but he is ready to step right in at any time if he keeps working like that. To those not familiar with his trainer Jeff Mullins, remember he had the Derby favorite, I Want Revenge, in 2009 after sending him east to win the Gotham and Wood Memorial, only to be scratched the morning of the race.
Another horse entered on Saturday who is in the same situation as Nearly and Cannonner, but even more so, is D’CODE, who is trying to stretch out from one six-furlong maiden romp in blazing time to two turns in the Southwest Stakes. The son of sprint champion Speightstown wired his field by 8 1/4 lengths in 1:09 3/5 at Oaklawn. Needless to say, this will be a huge step up for him and we’ll see just how far he can carry his speed. Another speedster entered this weekend is BUETANE, who I have always felt could handle longer distances. Bob Baffert has been up and down for months with his colt and instead of waiting for the Robert B. Lewis Stakes on February 7 for his two-turn debut he entered him in both the Holy Bull and Southwest Stakes. He couldn’t make it to Gulfstream and might have trouble getting to Oaklawn, in which case it could be back to the Lewis, and who knows how many he will have to run there.
If it’s possible to have a sleeper for the Derby who cost $5 million as a yearling and broke his maiden at odds of 1-10, then Todd Pletcher may have one in COURTING, a son of Curlin, out of $2 million earner Cavorting, who is under the radar, not only on the Derby trail but in Pletcher’s barn. But this is a horse who is still learning and hasn’t had the best of trips, especially in the Remsen, when he got crunched hard from both sides coming out of the gate, got shuffled to the back of the pack, and was bumped going into the first turn. He did make a good run around the turn, but was very wide and simply had done too much to keeep up with the top three finishers. In his three races, including his maiden victory, he has raced greenly, being a big long-striding colt, and really hasn’t put it all together yet. He has had a number of half-mile works this year and should appreciate returning at 1 1/8 miles in the February 14 Risen Star Stakes. If he has matured over the winter, keep an eye on him as the distances stretch out. Another Pletcher colt under the radar, who we mentioned last week, is CLASS PRESIDENT, but with only one start, a victory at one mile, Pletcher will have to find a race for him.
Back on the subject of Baffert, his star 2-year-old BRANT, third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, had his first work following a slight setback, breezing an easy three-eighths in :37 2/5 on January 22. Kenny McPeek, worked stakes placed LIBERTY NATIONAL and UNIVERSE a half in :49 at Fair Grounds on January 23. McPeek still is high on both colts despite their recent defeats. Universe is a total enigma, running so poorly in the Smarty Jones following several big efforts in stakes against major Derby contenders.
If you’re looking for a real under the radar horse, TALKIN had his first work back since a dreadful ninth-place finish in the Remsen Stakes at 4-1. His :37 2/5 three-furlong breeze at Palm Meadows was a first step back to respectability after his thrilling victory in his career debut and a second-place finish in the near stakes-record Champagne Stakes. Trainer Danny Gargan was refreshingly honest when he blamed himself for the Remsen debacle, saying it was the worst training job of his career. Leery about the track at Aqueduct, he said he babied the colt and almost scratched him, especially coming off that brutally fast mile in 1:34 2/5 in the Champagne. In short, he simply wasn’t prepared for the Remsen and got sick after the race and was sent to the farm for a while. But he has always been highly regarded and Gargan expected him to win first time out at Saratoga.
He showed a lot in that seven-furlong debut, being pushed all the way to keep up with a torrid :22 1/5 and :44 3/5 pace set by 6-5 favorite Stradale. Fourth turning for home, he was a bit green having to be forced to change leads and cocking his head to the inside, with three lengths to make up on Stradale on at the eighth pole. But he kept coming under a vigorous hand ride by Kendrick Carmouche, switched back to his left lead, but quickly jumped back to his right lead and just got up by a neck to nail the favorite, who finished six lengths a head of Further Ado, who would come back to break his maiden by 20 lengths before winning the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. Thrown right into the Champagne, he just wasn’t ready to outrun a bullet like Napoleon Solo, who set insane early fractions (whether they were accurate or not), and he hung tough in the stretch to finish second. He just needs to show he can come home faster, but I don’t believe we’ve seen anything close to his best.
With nothing doing in the U.S. this past week, we have to go to Dubai where they ran the UAE 2,000 Guineas, and we did see a fast and talented colt, SIX SPEED, put himself in the Derby picture with an impressive dominating victory pressing the early pace and taking over under no urging and then drawing well clear of the 16-horse field. While his connections did not appear to be bursting with confidence that he was a mile and a quarter horse, his trainer did acknowledge that he now has American ownership and that there is a good chance they have the Derby in mind. His big test will come when he stretches out in distance in the UAE Derby. His pedigree indicates that distance should not be a concern, with him being by Not This Time, out of eight generations of Phipps family mares that trace to the great La Troienne. His dam is by Medaglia d’Oro and he is inbred to the likes of Damascus and Secretariat and Northern Dancer three times. He does wear front bandages for whatever reason, but he looks to be very professional and never deviated off his path down that long Meydan stretch while staying on his right lead the whole way. So we’ll keep an eye on him and see how far he can carry his speed.
All the talk this week has been about the first-out maiden winner for trainer Chad Brown, CANALETTO, a half brother to Arkansas Derby winner Sandman and a son of, guess who, Into Mischief, who demolished a highly touted field by eight lengths. And he did it while still green down the stretch. It was quite a sight seeing the horses around him on the turn being urged, while his rider, Flavien Prat, was barely moving his hands. With his high leg action, he was a bit late changing leads and then ran most of the way at an angle and steadily drifting out. But despite it all he drew off under a hand ride, coming home his final eighth in a sharp :12 1/5/ to cover the mile in 1:36 1/5. His female family is exceptionally strong, with his second dam Music Room being a half-sister to French 1,000 Guineas winner Musical Chimes and Coaching Club American Oaks and Mother Goose winner Music Note, the dam of Dubai World Cup winner Mystic Guide. It’s pretty late to consider him a Derby horse, but nowadays you never know, and he is one to remember later on.
Catching up on last week’s races, Cherie DeVaux, who has two live ones in Golden Tempo, ranked in the top 15 last week, and MESQUITE, the one-two finishers in the LeComte Stakes, sent out a promising maiden winner in REAGAN’S HONOR, a son of Honor A.P., who wired his field at Fair Grounds in his second career start, winning by 1 1/4 lengths with first-time Lasix. Also, a big question is whether San Vicente winner SO HAPPY will stretch out to two turns. He is by top sprinter Runhappy, but is out of a Blame mare, and looked the part the way he sat off the pace and outran 1-2 favorite Buetane, who is entered in Saturday’s Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn.
SILENT TACTIC, last weeks No. 15 ranked horse, worked five furlongs in a solid 1:01 3/5 for Saturday’s Southwest Stakes. That is four-fifth faster than stablemate Strategic Risk worked. Another ranked horse, PLUTARCH, worked six furfongs in 1:12 2/5 for the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, KRISTOFFERSON, Baffert’s loaded gun he’s hiding in his holster, turned in a bullet six-furlong work in 1:12 2/5, fastest of 63 works at the distance. It will be interesting to see where he shows up after a much-needed freshening.
Racing historian, author, and award-winning retired journalist for the Daily Racing Form and The Blood-Horse, Steve Haskin was inducted into the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame’s Media Roll of Honor in 2016. Known for his racing knowledge and insightful prose, he has been an exclusive contributor to Secretariat.com since 2020.
RE: G3, Southwest Stakes, Oaklawn Park, Friday, 2-6 (R11)
A very competitive field has been assembled for this Derby prep race, with 20 points going to the winner. The morning line favorite, Litmus Test, is listed at 5/2, with D’Code listed at 3-1, as the 2nd favorite. In his first out maiden win, D’Code could not have been more impressive, going 6 furlongs, in 1:09.57, drawing off by 8 1/4 lengths. His sire, Speightstown, was sprinter/middle distance type, but his dam side reflects plenty of stamina influence which should make D’Code competitive around two turns, IMO.
D’Code earned the highest Equibase Speed Figure in the field, at 107. The fact that he’s a Tom Durant homebred adds to his allure.
With respect to Bob Baffert’s two hopefuls, Buetane and Litmus Test, there’s always a question of how they will handle shipping in from the West coast.
That said, I’ll go with D’Code as the likely winner of the Southwest. My longshot pick will be Liberty National, at 10-1.
I’ll Wheel D’Code on top, with Buetane, Litmus Test, Liberty National and Strategic Risk underneath, in my superfecta wager. 2/3-5-7-9/ 3-5-7-9/ 3-5-7-9.
Safe Trips to all.
BTW, Litmus Test and Buetane have been cross nominated for the Robert B. Lewis, so it remains to be seen where these two Baffert colts will show up.
Bill,
Nice analysis of the Southwest Stakes.. D’Code definitely has the early speed and he seems to like this track we will if he has the stamina to go along with that speed. I expect both Baffert horses to make the trip if the plane can take off. Can’t see why he would keep them both at SA if they can make the flight. I am still on the fence with Litmus Test and Buetane has speed but still would like to see him come from off the pace. Strategic Risk should have a good bottom and will see what he is made of in this race. Silent Tatic I expect to see him coming strong at the end. Liberty National has a nice pedigree and should improve off his last race.
Good Luck Bill and nice job here.
Bill,
In my previous post i meant to ask you if you saw Cornucopia comeback race last Saturday at SA. You can see it at DRF click on the results tab and go to Sat 1/31 Santa Anita. It was the 8th race. He was AMAZING !!! I don’t know were Baffert go with him from here but if he can stay healthy there maybe endless possibilities!!
DTS
Yeah, a very impressive comeback win for Cornucopian. He was very high on my 2025 Derby Watch list, but in the Arkansas Derby, he went way too fast early on and faded late to finish 4th. After that race he dropped off the Derby trail. He’s probably best suited for sprint/middle distance type races.
Thanks, DTS
With several entries on this year’s Derby trail, the Southwest should be an interesting race, not only from a betting standpoint, but just to watch.
Good luck to you as well, DTS.
Riley Mott confirmed that Incredibolt did not take to the Gulfstream. Did not say were horse will race again. Magnitude will not make the trip to Saudi Arabia for the Saudi Cup as he has spiked a fever.
Congrats to Nearly and his connections on a very admirable effort against quality competition. The only question mark was the closing split of 34.20
If his preferred style is to press the leader(s), that approach may prove more challenging over longer distances against the cream of the crop.
Love Nearly’s pedigree!
The East coast weather reminds of 2014.
Shug commented that Honor Code could not get in training because of the frozen ground.
If this weather pattern continues, possible advantage for the West Coast horses?
Even Florida has had some below normal temperatures.
You will love Nearly even more if you watch him playing football in his breeder’s farm… !
Hey, Nelson. Would love to see Nearly playing football. What site did you see that on?
Nelson, I found it. BloodHorse has the story of Nearly’s breeder, Kristi Gibson with a brief video of Nearly kicking a beach ball. He even looks like a soccer player with the high socks, ha, ha! I recommend reading the article. There’s good background of his breeding; something like Steve would address in his rankings.
Kris Gibbons, according to the article.
I stand corrected. Thanks.
Nelson and Dewey that was some pretty fancy footwork don’t you think?
I’d put Nearly at #1 right now…
Matthew W, I would think he will move up.
IMHO, yes number one.
Been looking for a favorite since Ted Noffey was taken off the Derby Trail and Nearly stands out for me.
Consulting is also on my watch list.
Lynda, I loved seeing Nearly’s agility in moving the ball. It will be to his advantage in maneuvering a trip through a huge field in the Derby.
Me too
Interesting too that these small breeding farms that are very hands on produce some of the best horses!
There is now a bit of separation with the top three horses in WH futures:
Paladin 8-1
Nearly 10-1
Boyd 12-1
Further Ado 15-1
Canaletto 18-1
Napoleon Solo, Chief Wallabee 22-1
If you don’t like top 4 or so, good odds are definitely available.
I am liking Blackout Time and Strategic Risk currently both are still 40-1
Golden Tempo and Commandment are 25-1 and probably worth a few wagers at those odds…
Potente just added at 40-1
thanks for your updates biggy!
You are welcome!
Ok Nearly won nicely…..
But watching the highlights of the race I would of liked to have seen where Project Ace (40/1) would have finished if they were running the 10 furlongs which is all import in May 😉
The video of the Holy Bull (at least whats on UTube) – 90% doesn’t even show him in the frame.
A pity the Belmont Stakes will still be at the shrunken distance this year….
Brudder_A go to Bloodhorse website and they will show you the entire Holy Bull Stakes race. Nearly won the battle in the stretch run between he and Cannoneer; that was a great race within the race.
For those who care, Nearly got a 98 for the Holy Bull (number is in the DRF wrap-up story). That may be the fasted for any 3YO going a distance on dirt so far this year. It certainly is for a stakes race.
It will be interesting to see where Steve places him.
Hi Steve – Just watched the replay of the Swale and I’m not giving up on Class Oresident. He was well beaten by a sprinter/Miler going 7F in the Swale. Saffie after the race was non commital about sending Solitude Dude to the FOY realizing that he could be a sprinter and may not stretch out with his pedigree. Larry Colmus believes that Class President ran well to get second and that he is a horse who wants to go longer. Both commentators believed that being stuck on the rail did CP no favors and by the time JV wheeled him out, it was too late to make ground up on the winner. Congrats to the winner, however I’m looking forward to CP next race stretching out to 2 turns in hopefully a KY Derby points race next.
Ms Blacktype I loved the battle in the stretch between Nearly and Cannoneer. He has a lot of fight and maturity for a 3 year old. And he has the genes too.
Terri, Cannoneer should do better next time. He’s still very inexperienced.
Brad Cox said yesterday that we think we found out how far he wants to go. Not exactly a comment that sounds like he will be testing farther distances as the Trail moves on….
Thanks for humoring me with the Beyer figure Ms Blacktype. 🤣
I’m impressed you got an emoji to work here!
Hi Steve – What’s your impression of Class President a after finishing 2nd in the Swale at 7F, beaten nearly 4 lengths by 1-5 FAV Solitude Dude. My read is that CP wants more distance And will do much better next out in a derby prep going 1 1/16, 2 turns, in MAR. The pace was soft for the winner, 23 for the 1/4 and 46.5 for the half. No one except CP put any pressure on SD except CP, who was in chase mode and was only 1 length off of the winner at the top of the stretch. SD had no problem. kicking away In the stretch off of those soft fractions in a sprint. I like that JV let CP gallop out past the winner. CP wants longer, he’s not a sprinter. I wouldn’t mind seeing CP going to the FOY to try to turn the tables on SD at a 2 turn longer distance of the FOY. I’m not giving up on CP as a derby contender and hope that you also still have faith in him going longer Steve, as well as TP still having faith in him. With Ted Noffey out and Nearly targeting the FLA Derby, I hope Pletcher targets CP for the FOY. If not that race then other options for points surely available. What’s your take on CP Steve? Am I being too optimistic. I a, glad that Paladin worked yesterday and is on track for the Risen Star. Paladin is my #1, my 22-1 KDFW2 hope as a derby contender.
When a horse goes :45/45 and wins by eight—-the closets get plum outwun- Nearly….well built…well balanced….nice horse, a contender…
My thoughts on the Holy Bull… Nearly won nicely as he repelled Cannoneer time was ok but again this is a Todd Pletcher horse going on the front end. If TP can get him to rate and get him to rate he might have contender for the. Was not happy with the ride Incredibolt got. Jockey out of the gate should have taken to the rail like Project Ace jockey did come with one big at the end. Project Ace closed very nicely in the end. Big Big question is what is going on in the COX barn. 3 races now the Lecomte, The Pegasus and now the Holy Bull his horses have come up empty … owners got to be wondering.
In 6th race at Santa Anita Potente came out of gate like a rocket and held off a big challenge by Captain Shreve. Time was ok and nothing write home about but Baffert I feel will need to get him to rate if he wants to be a KD contender. You know how I feel about Into Mischief colts going long on the frontend.
Newsflash: Regarding Cox horses coming up ’empty’, it happens, as you very well know. It’s early, Rome isn’t burning.
Mike
For the last 3 weekend Rome has burnt to the ground for Cox and is now ashes. But wait there is hope…. like The Phoenix rose from the ashes so will Cox as he has too many good horses in his barn and one will finally rise to the occasion the only question is…………….. when ???
You have a short memory. The barn you cherish has it’s share of under performing during Derby season.
Mike,
You always feel you got to get your BB dig in. My memory is just fine. My memory tells me that BB has produced 17 triple crown race winners which more than all the Triple Crown races combined than the trainers that you cherish. And he has 2 Triple Crown winners to boot. Maybe you are the one that has a short memory. Let’s revisit this conversation in a few weeks and see were everybody stands then
Just watched the Holy Bull again and I stand corrected as Torres did give a good ride to Incredbolt.. I guess he never grabbed the track. He looked very good before the race. Maybe Mott should look to another track to get points with him. Project ACE looked good in the stretch because he was passing tired horses.
Gulfstream base is 85% sand and 15% clay.
Lol. If you want to live in past tense be my guest. Fact is, last year ended in a whimper. Seems you took a dig at Cox,but let’s don’t confuse facts. BTW, can name dozens of barns not on my hit parade,so let’s stop with the illusion it’s just one barn drawing my disrespect.
Your the illusion.. no dig at Cox just stating fact something you can’t accept.
Remember this time last yr. your barn was LOADED. How did that work out?
BB has dug his own hole & it has been 5 years since he was knocked to the ground by his Derby “winner” who was anything but authentic. His poor horse was crawling out of its own skin with whatever he gave it, and even people watching the event at the Spa started voicing publicly why nothing was done about the obvious spectacle unfolding on national television.
But that was FIVE years ago. Right? Things have changed for the better in racing and in the Derby since Baffert was DQ’d in 2021. No more front end runners that never seem to get tired. Sierra Leone nearly got up and McPeek actually won one, as well as a trainer named Reed with a closer named Rich Strike. That is indicative of more HONEST racing. Having a stable full of, and buying the same type of speed horse that never gets tired, year after year is so blatantly obvious that something is artificial is going on became more and more evident to EVERYONE as time passed on…. only people like you still believe it wasn’t by artificial contrivance. You are in a minority, but alas, are the most vocal on racing sites. Even Haskin asked you to tone it down last year, so, please : tone it down!
Further Ado
Great potential.
You forgot Commandment
Exactly! Always the one pushing the same tired agenda year after year. By all intents and purpose- pretty much over.
Nearly was much the best today in the Holy Bull. Cannoneer forced him to be wide around the first turn, but Nearly was not deterred as he stalked Cannoneer and took command around the final turn and won with something left. He’s a serious player going forward. Pletcher has an able sub for Ted Noffey.
I couldn’t agree more. Cannoneer tired badly during the stretch run and could be restricted to middle distance type races moving forward.
Bob Baffert’s colt, Potente, looked very impressive breaking his maiden at SA today.
Even though he’s getting a late start, he could be Derby prospect moving forward.
Time will tell.
Any thoughts you might have on Solitude Dude, (Swale winner) would be greatly appreciated.
Thanks, Dewey
Bill, I was impressed with Solitude Dude. He definitely has a lot of speed. Irad gave him a clever ride on the front end, leaving something in the tank for the stretch run. He won with authority. However, I’ll have to see more from him at two turns. If he passes the next test, then I may be sold on him.
I was watching Class President (I have him in my Virtual Stable). He changed lanes in mid-stretch and kept within shouting distance of Solitude Dude. I would expect improvement at a longer distance. As with all these 3 yo. contenders, we have to keep evaluating them as they progress along the Derby Trail. Only time will tell us how good they are.
Good luck, moving forward, Bill. and thanks for all your helpful info. I always read your comments.
Thanks for the reply, Dewey
The FOY should be a good test going two turns. With Ted Noffey on the shelf, and Nearly pointed to the Florida Derby, the FOY appears to be wide open.
I love to see Cox enter first out maiden winner; Canaletto, entered in the FOY.
If Commandment goes, he’ll likely be the post time favorite, IMO.
Good luck to you as well, Dewey. I pay particular attention to thoughts and opinions on the Derby trail.
Edit: I would love to see Cox enter first out maiden winner……
Bill, like yourself and many others, I also am high on Canaletto. I see no reason why Chad would not enter him in the FOY. The excitement builds.
As expected, Solitude Dude won the Swale Stakes, and will point to the FOY (per owner, Chris Fountoukis), where the waters will definitely get deeper. He didn’t quite replicate the speed he showed in his first two outings, but a win is a win. He appears to have a bright future moving forward.
Interesting that Solitude Dude’s owner was ready to jump on the FOY bandwagon. When questioned after the race, Saffie sounded like he wasn’t ready to make that decision. But I guess the owner decided for him.
Baffert must be pretty confident in Potente as he has scratched his 2 other entrants in the 6th race at Santa Anita.
On another thought I was thinking about Brant and I was wondering if Baffert may do another Justify with him? Brant at least had the luxury of having already raced at 2. Justify was given his first start on Feb 18th of his 3 yr old year in a MSW. Then raced on 3/11 in a 1 mile allowance race and then contested his next race in SA Derby which qualified him for the KD. Do you suppose he may do the same with Brant and give him may just give a 1 mile allowance race in March and put him in the SA Derby to qualify him for the KD? Brant does have some KD points. Just my thinking.
I think I may have missed something. Can anybody tell me what’s going on with Oaklawn? They have entries listed for Friday the 6th, and Sunday the 8th but no card drawn for Saturday the 7th. The weather forecast calls for sunny skies in the 60’s all of next week. What gives with no Saturday card on the 7th?
Maybe a day off for the Sabbath?
See my post below.
They moved the races set for today to the 6th. I assume the races for Sunday were moved to the 8th
The track has been closed for days – no training at all.
I haven’t seen Nearly up close, but I can see he has a well-proportioned shape—and he has a well-balanced stride….. I’m not sure about distance, we shall see—I like him!…
Nearly’s beautiful pedigree showed up today. Relative to his conformation, he is well balanced.
Hello all.
Hope everyone is staying warm during this next polar vortex. Long term prognosticators are saying this deep freeze is going to be with us through the end of February. Of course we have to hear from Paxutaney Phil and General Beauregard Lee to know for sure!
The news about Ted Noffey is disappointing but confident after time off and turn out he will be back.
Still trying to play catch up on the Derby field.
The one that has caught my eye is Courting that Steve mentioned in Knocking On The Door.
He is full brother to Clairerie who had 3.2 million in earnings. Never know when the lights will come on for these colts and fillies.
In my opinion Courting by Curlin out of Cavorting by Bernardini has the right stuff to win the Derby and many would love to see Mandy standing in the winners circle
Wishing Mandy Pope the very best for her colt.
Agree with you about Courting & Mandy Pope——impeccable pedigree! I also love Golden Tempo—- I’m a sucker for Curlin progeny!
My picks for the Holy Bull will be 4-5-7-8 and will be playing an exacta box.
This based on their Beyer Speed figure #’s………………………………………………………. NOT !!!
After my analysis of this race I figured 2 of these horses should run 1 and 2. Which 2 remains to be seen.
I like Incredibolt but just not for this race. The stretch run at Gulfstream Park is over 100 yards shorter than Churchill Downs. But if he does pull off a win or a close 2nd then he is INCREDIBLE !!!! and he will be my # 1 pick for the time being
This is hilarious, Downy, and about where my thinking is on the Holy Bull. Most likely winner is Nearly, but almost any one else in the field could win.
Glad this brought a smile to your face Ms Blacktype….. I hope I will be smiling after the race.
I hope you will too.
TY
BTW did hit the exacta
At 8-1, Bravaro appears to be a live longshot in the Holy Bull. His sire, Upstart won the Holy Bull, in 2015, and was 2nd in the FOY and Florida Derby. His dam’s sire, Tamarkuz, was a middle-distance type (winner of the BC Dirt Mile) but tracks back to Lemon Drop Kid, winner of the Belmont, Travers and several other graded route races.
Bravaro appears to have good speed, with the ability to rate off the pace, accompanied by a nice closing kick. He hasn’t raced in 3 months, but Gulfstream Park’s leading trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. appears to have Bravaro well cranked for the Holy Bull Stakes.
Cannoneer remains my top pick, but I’ll certainly include Bravaro in a few exotic wagers.
Safe trips to all.
I just read that there is a “Winter Book Curse”. Since 2000, the winter book favorite has not made the Kentucky Derby 16 times, much less win it. Almost like playing the Stock Market. Stay healthy, Paladin.
I honestly don’t see how OP is going to run decent editions of the Southwest & Martha Washington stakes. The track has been closed for training for days, and it’s closed for today & tomorrow…and probably Sunday. It would be irresponsible to run horses on 2/6 with they haven’t been able to work or even gallop
I completely agree & add to the fact race will be run a week later now it changes the timing for some of these horses coming back to run again on shorter rest for Oaklawns other prep races as well
Yep…well there’s nothing they can do about that
I have a filly I love pointing for the MW, and I hope they considered shipping her to FG to work
Oaklawn Park is a difficult place to ship in & out horses to begin with not sure they will even attempt shipping her for a work unless they plan to run her elsewhere def won’t ship twice in that time frame. Good luck
Jerry, good point!
I guess we’ll see what happens, but what a mess!
Thank you!
The Southwest was canceled 3 days ago.
Oh really? Wow, that’s a shame …but not surprising
I kind of wish they’d cancel the MW – how can any filly run in that race next Friday without having been able to train at all?
Oh wait, I thought it was postponed to 2/6?
Love your Derby lists , particularly the Knocking on the Doors section . Someone mentioned that Aqueduct has cancelled all weekend races . I was looking forward to seeing Chad Brown’s Ottinho race in the Withers . I believe he is a half brother to Gunrunner . I have a small Futures bet on him in the 3rd pool , at 134-1 .
Talkin is winning The Run for the Roses. Book it.
Is that what your tea leaves indicate?
He better stop Talkin and start running faster, ha ha
Correct. We’ll see.
Holy Moly I hope you are correct I am sitting on some huge Futures & got more cash down after he floundered last out. Throw his last out Gargan said he wasn’t ready to run that day & was the worst training he had done in his career. Stay Tuned….
Racing at Aqueduct cancelled for the weekend .
Good. Subzero wind chills here in southern New York. Glad our furnace is repaired.
Too bad about Ted Noffey! I hope he recovers well from the bone bruising that took him off the trail.
God Speed recovery to Ted Noffey & sorry for his connections they had great expectations. Earlier in the post I commented he was a toss for me because of his high Dosage but sorry that he is off the trail because of injury he is an amazing talent & will be back in the summer well rested….
Updated odds at WH:
Paladin, Canaletto 9-1
Boyd 12-1
Chief Wallabee 14-1
Cannoneer 16-1
Golden Tempo 20-1
Slight movement in futures odds:
Paladin now 8-1 favorite;
Canaletto 9-1;
Boyd, Chief Wallabee 12-1;
Cannoneer 15-1;
Golden Tempo 20-1
I am not a big believer in Beyer #’s or some of the other handicap speed tools as much as I try to figure how they come to these #’s it is not cut and dry. An example of what I am talking about happened this past Sunday..
On Jan 25th at Gulfstream Park the 2 MSW the 3rd race and 7th race.
The 3rd race won by Code Review was a 6 furlong race. Code Review basically was on the lead for the most part of the whole race and won with a time of 1:10.25 with the jockey easing up on him just before the finish line.and beating his rivals by 1 1/2 lengths His fractions were : 21.8: 44.90: 57.19; and again final time of 110.25 for the 6 furlong. Given a Beyer of 78 and Equibase of 83.
3 races later in the 7th race a one mile one turn race and again same track and no change in track condition (fast) won by Canaletto. He also was on the lead for most of the race. His fractions were as follows : 23.88; 46.60; 1:11.22 ; 123.97 ; with a final time of 1:36.28 and he beat his rivals 8 lengths with jockey not easing up until he hit the wire. He was given a Beyer of 89 and Equibase of 94.. My big question is why such a big discrepancy in the Beyer and Equibase #.? Code review beat Canaletto in every early fraction # and was eased at the end. One other 1 mile race for the day to compare it to was for $6250 claimers for fillies and mares 4 years old or older not exactly the same class. won in 1:38.48
I say forget the #’s and visually look at the race. That is why I was impressed more with Code Review with the fractions he ran and still running strong at the end than I was with Canaletto who won convincingly but left you wondering who he running against. BTW… Code Review is a Full Brother to the ill fated Laoban.
If anyone here can clearly described to me the big differences between these Beyer and Equibase# I would appreciate it.
Thanks for info on Code Review being a full to Laoban. I was a fan of the latter who I thought was mismanaged by his trainer who I believe had a screw loose.
Disgrace how he died.
Beyer speed numbers are assigned strictly on final time and distance of the race, adjusted by the track variant which is a measure of the inherent speed of the surface.
Beyer does not consider many variables such as post position, weight carried, early pace, wind, or traffic problems. However, once they assign a “high number” they revisit the raw numbers and adjust accordingly based on the fields previous performances.
Equibase speed numbers are based on final time, run up distance, rail distance, track condition, wind, carried weight, and class level.
I hope this helps.
What are your thoughts on the case above and the wide discrepancy?
From my experience every race is a singular event contested under specific conditions at a particular time and place.
If you take 10 evenly matched horses and have them race each other every five or six weeks, chances are that you will see a different result each time. One bump, one missed break, one wrong jockey decision, etc., can have a profound difference is the outcome. Today’s 97 speed figure will most likely be a 90 next time out. Or, today’s 89 could be 99 next time out.
Therefore, speed figures are a small part of the big puzzle. I rely on the eye test, watching replays and most importantly how consistent the horse(s) is.
Zany,,
Thanks for your explanation and handicapping angles but again I would like for the Racing Form employee from Gulfstream Park to give his reasoning for the Beyer #’s for those two races. And if not him from Andy Beyer himself. Does anyone here have connections in this area?
It just seems inconceivable to me for a horse who ran faster fractions for 6 furlongs on the same track on the same day about 1 hour difference between the starts down the same chute as the horse would end up with a lower Beyer figure. I know there is a a quarter mile difference between the 2 races but I don’t feel the discrepancy should be that great. My only reasoning is they were only comparing the one mile race against the other one mile race run earlier that day which would be a joke since the other one mile race was a $6250 claiming race which was run by fillies and mares 4 years old or older. If that is the case the Beyer system has huge flaw in it for the handicappers and should be taking the numbers “with a grain of salt” in other words …. skepticism, doubt, caution, distrust, exaggerated , or biased.
Let it be known you have been WARNED !!!
Andy Beyer’s speed figures have been tainted and inaccurate for decades
Yes. He thought Zenyatta was slow. Lol
Glad to hear that Ted Noffey will be ok even though he’s now off of the KY Derby Trail. Looking forward to Paladins run in a Couple of weeks in the win and your in Risen Star ⭐️. A win in the Risen Star could catapult Paladin to #1 on most derby lists. Hoping Class President runs well enough to hop on the derby trail after his race in the Swale. I want to see him finish no worse than a good second with a big gallop out. I watched the replay of when Easy Goer Won the Swale, he was well off the pace and rollled by to an easy victory. CP IMO is not a sprinter. He looked really good winning his MSW at 1M at GP with a strong gallop out. With Ted Noffey now off the derby trail, Todd Pletcher will now focus on his other runners to get them points and get them ready for the KY Derby.
DRF reporting Ted Noffey off the Triple Crown Trail – Bone Brusing 90 days off
Big development on the Trail!
This is a surprising development as I do not feel Pletcher is a trainer who works his horses hard. Also so early in his training for the Kentucky Derby. He wasn’t on the top of my list until I would see how Pletcher was going to run him style wise. It is a shame but that is how delicate these horses are. Hope he makes it back this year.
Yep. Been trying to think of a true No. 1. Can’t do it. Winner of Holy Bull?
Hi Steve,
Thoughts on Golden Tempo?
I saw an earlier comment just now…thank you
Devastating news, to say the least. My condolences to Ted Noffey’s connections.
This will certainly shake up the Derby Rankings. My pick in the Holy Bull will be the Into Mischief colt, Cannoneer. If in fact he should win the Holy Bull, he will replace Ted Noffey on my Derby Watch list, at #1.
The morning line odds on the Holy Bull and Swale Stakes have been released.
Holy Bull
1) Incredibolt, 9/2
2) Roger That Dana, 20-1
3) Project Ace, 20-1
4) Global Aviator, 5-1
5) Cannoneer, 2-1
6) Buetane, (scratch)
7) Nearly, 9/5
8) Bravaro, 8-1
9) Game for It, (scratch)
Swale
1) Class President, 5/2
2) Langvad, 20-1
3) Epic Summer, 5-1
4) Hammond, 8-1
5) Diciassette, 4-1
6) Solitude, 6/5
edit, #6, Solitude Dude
No love for Golden Tempo who was ranked #13 in last week’s list with the comment that he had the tools you want in a Derby hose, and who won the Grade III Lecompte stakes. I’m puzzled…….
As you said he was ranked 13. As you can see this week is a top 12 for reasons I explained in the comments. I dislike the expression “No love for?” Yes he still has the tools and yes I still have love for him. But I can’t squeeze 13 horses into a top 12. Im sure my love for the horse will be more visible next week.
Thanks for your comment, Steve.
Steve: Great column, especially considering the conditions under which you wrote it, and how early it is for the Derby Dozen. Hope your heat is back on by now and you are cozily settling back in at home.
And it IS early. I went back and looked at my personal Top 12 lists for the last week in January going back to 2018. Not surprisingly, only TWO Derby winners were represented anywhere on those lists at that early date. One of them (Medina Spirit) won but was later disqualified. Weirdly, I had the one-two finishers (Authentic and Tiz the Law) as my top two picks in January 2020 — the year the Derby was run in September.
I’m sure your track record is far better than mine on placing Derby winners in the Top 12 this early, but I found it an interesting exercise. I’ve always believed that February is the month to look for a Derby winner, so Oaklawn may have done us all a favor by moving the Southwest to Feb. 6.
Regarding the most reliable horse on the list, the unbeaten Ted Noffey, he’s following the same path as Forte in 2023. I personally think Ted’s a better horse, and that his female line (descending from Reine de Course mare South Ocean, who foaled Storm Bird) is superb. Unless he has unknown physical issues as Forte did, I think he has a decent chance at leading the rankings well into April.
That said, he’s not my pick to win. Despite all the hoopla over Into Mischief, I think it’s Nyquist’s year to sire a Derby winner. There are several promising candidates on my long watch list: Autobahn, Bricklin, Iron Honor, Jackson Hole, Kristofferson, and Litmus Test. Food for thought as we wait for the races this Saturday.
Just to follow up, Steve — you had the winners in your last-week-of-January Derby Rankings 3 out of 5 times.
2025 Sovereignty #2
2024 Mystic Dan KOTD
2023 Mage came a little later, in early March
2022 Rich Strike, not surprisingly, never earned a mention
2021 Medina Spirit #7; Mandaloun #9
I guess you know your stuff!
Thanks. Back home with heat.
Doesn’t it feel great?
Hello Steve – all systems go for Paladin as he targets the Risen Star in a couple of weeks. What do you think of Class President running in the Swale at 7F SAT Steve? Is this i sharpener for him before he stretches next out in a derby prep? I’m hoping with the talented sprinter Solitude Dude that CP can tip out in the stretch and get the win with a strong gallop out. CP is my 50-1 KDFW horse from pool 3.
Joe;
fyi, CP cut from 150-1 to 70-1 now at WH
Thanks Biggy, I’m happy to be locked in at 50-1 in KDFW3. He’s running in the Swale at 7F on SAT and I’m hoping he puts in a good effort with a strong gallop out so that Todd will get him in a 50 point MAR prep next out.
Another great article but just like last week count me as one of the ones very suspect of Ted Noffey stamina going 1 1/4, he may not end up being the best in Todds barn time will only tell when he starts running again. I completely tossed him while in Vegas making Futures early on & in all of the 3 Twin Spires Future Pools to date didn’t even use him for 2nd in the Exacta Plays. If he wins the Derby I will have egg on my face & empty pockets because he will have to win it with the highest Dosage Index 15.00 (I believe) since it’s been tracked. Mandaloun won with an 11.00 but that was through a DQ & Nyquist was a 7.00 & there have been a few here & there 4.33 – 5.00 most of which were races run in Muddy/Sloppy conditions even then. I am a huge believer of the Dosage Index angle in my handicapping & it’s been a great predictor over time for great payoffs & eliminating shorter priced horses completely. Holy Bull one of the greatest of all time was undefeated as a 2 yr old. His 3 yr old campaign he ran last in the Fountain of Youth bounced back to win the Fla Derby then raced with a Dosage Index of 5.00 in Ky Derby as the odds on favorite & running 12th. After the Derby he never lost another race rest of his career until his last where he was pulled up injured & did not finish. Beware of Ted Noffey’s female family which is why his Dosage is so high not from Into Mischief sire side. Since 1940 there have been 86 Derby winners & 88% of them had 4.00 or less index number & since 1980 46 winners with a 89.74% rate. Numbers don’t lie but there are exceptions you have Real Quiet & Nyquist that got the job done & several barely over the numbers like Mine That Bird, Always Dreaming & even Sovereignty last year 4.33 & all 3 of these of won the race in muddy/sloppy conditions. Since 2019 look at your winners & the generous payouts of each of the winners & dosage again numbers don’t lie.
Dosage# Payoffs
Country House 2.69 $ 132.40
Authentic 3.00 $ 18.80
Mandaloun 11.00 (No win payoff won via Disqualification)
Rich Strike 3.36 $ 163.60
Mage 2.50 $ 32.40
Mystik Dan 3.00 $ 39.20
Sovereignty 4.33 $ 17.90
*Honorable Mentions Also With Nice Pays Since 2000 while the in betweens also qualified just not big payouts.
Animal Kingdom 1.66 $ 43.80 (2011)
Mine That Bird 4.33 $ 103.20 (2009)
Giacomo 4.33 $ 102.60 (2005) * Ironic Holy Bull was his Stallion
Funny Cide 1.53 $ 27.60 (2003)
War Emblem 3.40 $ 43.00 (2002)
Monarchos 1.40 $ 23.00 (2001) * Only he & Secretariat under 2:00
These are just some examples & while training & breeding has changed in recent years these numbers don’t lie & continue to hold for the Ky Derby. Further research will also show it works well in the Tri/Superfectas too. Maybe I am still old fashion but it helps me eliminate runners sometimes. Maybe Ted Noffey is a Super horse & will out run his breeding but he may be a Miler/Sprinter too & not on my Dime. There are some wonderful horses on this list that want the 1 1/4 on the First Saturday in May. Good Luck to All
Jerry,
I use dosage a lot. But the problem is that they have not updated the dosage sires. Into Miscief is not a B,I,C,S or P, he has to be something, he is a six time leading sire with multiple winners at 9 furlongs and ten furlongs. The haven’t added any sires to the the Dosage in over 6 years. I still use it, but more as a guide, I’m working on a new dosage system that incorporates for large foal crops and with the distance being shorter. Cash some futures.
I have been very lucky especially the last few years. Last year was a 7k cash & the year before had Mystik Dan for 4k additionally Sierra Leone as well as Forever Young the Japan colt I got really early on in futures but a head bob at the wire was a difference in another 3k. I should have played the tri & super lol…Country House was a disappointment as his Derby day payoff was much more than his initial Future offer price. Been a good run tho & most people don’t eliminate the ones I consider obvious toss outs.
Jerry
I share your interest in Dosage Profiling, especially the Dosage Index, more so than the Center of Distribution. As Derbyologist pointed out, the dosage sires have not been updated for six years, which leads many to dismiss their relevance as a handicapping tool. However, Equibase Company LLC, (the publisher of Pedigree Online, Thoroughbred Database) continues to list Dosage Profiles on any given horse, to this day.
This leads me to believe that Dosage Index figures are still in vogue.
BTW, the question on Ted Noffey’s ability to sustain is speed over a distance of ground, I would point to the stamina influence of the mares on his dam side to settle that question.
Thanks for providing this thought-provoking comment on Dosage Profiling, and good luck with your Futures wagers. I have a few in Pool 1,2 and 3 as well.
Thanks & I understand your views as for his female family that is the reason he a complete toss out for me. I don’t even think he’ll run in the Derby I believe him to be a miler type & Spendthrift has other potential runners I like Further Ado much better he fits ,they & Todd will do right by the horse for breeding in the end. Just my opinion.
Thanks for the reply, Jerry
Ted Noffey carried his impressive speed throughout the running of the BC Juvenile in a crisp 1:42.25, over the 8.5- furlong distance. I would wait to see if he can replicate his BC performance in the FOY and then point to the Florida Derby at 9 furlongs, before rendering judgment on stamina limitations.
BTW, I’m a big fan of Further Ado as well, and have him at #6 on my current
Week #2 Rankings.
Add to the fact he isn’t just a bit over the index he’s an unheard of over the moon 15.00
Jerry, thank you for your info on the Dosage Index, I remember it well, it just seems it’s been forgotten of late.
Now you need to give us an update as we get closer to Derby day! Thanks again for posting!
Steve will tell you I have posting Dosage info on this subject for many years dating back to his Bloodhorse days. He is all knowing & he will attest todays training/breeding is directed more towards speed but this edge has served me well over the years. You can go to Equineline.com & search through their 5x Cross it will give you all the Dosage numbers & cross breeding & family trees. Good Luck
Hi Steve
Another great analysis on your top 12 Derby prospects, and your KOTD segment provided valuable information on the ones you mentioned. I’m especially looking forward to the Holy Bull Stakes, with three of your top 12 Derby prospects entered.
I would think the winner will move on to the FOY and face the undefeated Ten Noffey.
I’ll go with the homebred, Into Mischief colt, Cannoneer, as the likely winner. He checks the most boxes, IMO.
I recall you mentioning Bob Baffert’s colt, Potente, is getting a late start, and I certainly agree with that, but I see that he’s entered in the 6th race at Santa Anita on
Saturday, 1-31. It will be interesting to see how he performs in his initial outing.
His pedigree reflects speed, class and stamina, IMO. He’s certainly a colt to keep an eye on moving forward.
Any additional thoughts on Potente would be greatly appreciated.
Thanks for all you do, week after week.
Steve, I meant to point out Solitude Dude. He’s entered in the Swale Stakes, on the Holy Bull undercard. By hot sire Yaupon, out of an Into Mischief mare, he’s undefeated in two starts, winning by wide margins. He’s in the capable hands of Saffie Joseph Jr, (leading trainer at GP) and with Irad Ortiz Jr. in the saddle, he’ll be tough to beat in the Swale.
If in fact he wins Swale, I suspect his connections will point him to a Derby prep race down the road. This colt is a real speed merchant in every sense of the word. The only question at this juncture, is how far he wants to go. We’ll see.
Bill, he’s my pick in the Swale on Saturday, which is also where CLASS PRESIDENT has been entered.
Hi Ms Blacktype
Yeah, Solitude Dude is faster than greased lightning. The rest of the field will have a good of his rear end, throughout the race.
BTW, I recall your interest in Japanese horses. I came across a filly by the name of Tamamo Freesia, by Le Vent Se Leve, out of a Gold Allure mare, that might be of interest to you. Gold Allure is the son of Sunday Silence, who needs no introduction. I’m not sure where her connections will point her next, but there’s a chance they might ship her over to our country for a big stakes race down the road. When you get a chance, check her out.
edit, ” a good view of his rear end”
I will look into Tamamo Freesia, Bill — thanks!
For those living in the weather impacted areas of the U.S, stay safe and good luck.
The grandsire of this horse was also the grandsire of a BCC winner.
This horse won a Gr.1 in only his second start as a two-year-old, closing like a Kmart shopper moving towards a blue light special.
This horse reminds me of the Derby winner Animal Kingdom, with whom he does share some breeding influences in the form of the German sire Acatenegro.
In that second start he ran 2000 meters which equates to 1.24 miles in 2.01.
I don’t know if he will be intended for the Kentuck Derby, but if he does go in that direction, he could become the first ever to win the Derby from this country.
This horse I am interested in watching is the Japanese Hopeful winner, Lovcen.
I hope they give him a chance on the dirt.
I’ve a gut feeling Bob’s Brigade is going to turn up the heat! I also think Mullins has a good one, in Inrepido, just a gut feeling….it’s wide open ..Ted Noffey is the leader, he has the talent, but but it’s quite wide open!
Riley Mott’s horse, also Strategic Risk are capable.
Both are high on my list, Mike. Well bred, good connections and both are good looking runners…tike will tell…
For sure Dominic. Good Luck!
You too, Mike
Hi Matthew…I’m not sold on Ted Noffey either. Several others are just as attractive at good odds.
Intrepido seems to be under the radar but has run well…could he be the best CA 3 yo?
Great points- as we know each year several horses who fly under radar prove themselves as season heats up.
Well Dominic….in the American Pharaoh he was several lengths behind Desert Gate and Plutarch ..and responded to a left handed whip with mucho gusto, he really closed ….and those were two of Bob’s better ones..