2026 Kentucky Derby Rankings – Week 3
The loss of 2-year-old champion and Kentucky Derby favorite Ted Noffey to bone bruising was a major blow and left a gaping hole in the No. 1 spot, with few if any having the credentials to fill it, at least for now. But with the Derby trail life goes on and new stars likely will emerge. Did we see one in the Holy Bull winner Nearly? That is still to be determined, and we may find another one in this weekend’s three graded stakes. ~ Steve Haskin
Derby Rankings: February 2, 2026 – Week 3
By Steve Haskin
1. Paladin (Chad Brown, Gun Runner — Secret Sigh, by Tapit)
Pardon the football analogy, but when your starting quarterback gets hurt and is going to be out for a prolonged period of time you go to your No. 2 quarterback and you make him No. 1 until one of two things happen. You either go out and find a new proven starting quarterback or you see if No. 2 proves worthy of the top spot. Well, we thought we had found a new No. 1 around 6 p.m. on Saturday, but there were a few complications, as we discuss directly below, so we had no choice, at least for now, to move No. 2 to No. 1. Has Paladin done enough to be ranked on top? Frankly, no, but who has? Someone has to fill the spot and we have no choice but to let him bask in the spotlight. For how long is up to him. This is based on the fact that he technically is undefeated, he’s won a major race at 1 1/8 miles; he has a champion, trainer, jockey, owner, sire, and broodmare sire; he has a perfect running style for the Derby; and perhaps most important he is the only horse who has beaten an opponent who appears to be worthy of a top 10 ranking himself. He is starting to pick up his works with a half in :49 4/5, which over the deeper Payson Park surface is better than one might think. It actually was the ninth fastest of 60 works at the distance. With his debut in the Risen Star Stakes two weeks away, it will take a huge performance next Saturday to knock him back down, so we likely will keep him. at No. 1 until he gets the opportunity to show whether or not he belongs there.
2. Nearly (Todd Pletcher, Not This Time — Ib Prospector, by Mineshaft)
As they passed the finish line in Saturday’s Holy Bull Stakes, there looked to be a good chance that the victorious Nearly would catapult all the way from No. 11 to No. 1 to occupy the space left vacant by Ted Noffey. After all, he did everything expected of him, and did it with authority, just as he had done in his two previous starts. That gave him three consecutive victories by an average margin of almost seven lengths. You had to love the way he and John Velazquez prevented the favorite Cannoneer from controlling the pace by dogging him through quick fractions in the colt’s two-turn debut and coming off Lasix. After he ran Cannoneer into the ground he pulled away and won comfortably by 5 3/4 lengths while racing well off the rail. He has a smooth fluid stride, carries his legs under him beautifully, and keeps a perfectly straight path down the stretch. Even as a yearling he was a considered “a bull of a horse with wonderful substance and strength to him,” according to Conrad Banderoff, who sold him as agent. So why is he not No. 1? In the immediate aftermath of the race I can’t help but take into account how dramatically he slowed down at the end. After strong quarters in :22 4/5, :23, and :24 1/5, he came home his last two fractions in a sluggish :27 and :07. You could understand a deceleration, but those are beyond slow. Also remember that his Thoro-Graph number had jumped from a “5 3/4” to a “1” in his last start and we needed to see where he would go from there stretching out to two turns in a stakes, and sure enough he “bounced” to a “5” and now has to make a u-turn and head back toward that “1” with only one start left. This still was a very impressive performance visually, and perhaps those fractions can be excused with further thought, but for right now they were slow enough to move him to No. 2 instead of on top. In addition, of his two main rivals, one tired badly and the other did no running at all, so we still don’t know the true quality of the field.
3. Renegade (Todd Pletcher, Into Mischief — Spice is Nice, by Curlin)
With previous No. 3 Incredibolt out of the picture, at least for now, and Renegade making his 3-year-old debut in Saturday’s Sam F. Davis Stakes, which should be a good spot for his return, we might as well move him up considering Paladin was promoted to No. 1. He did actually finish in front of Paladin in their first meeting, in which he was disqualified in a decision that could have gone either way, and then ran a good second to him in the Remsen. That might have been closer had he changed leads a bit earlier. He seems to take a while to get in high gear and that also likely cost him. But he does get stronger and keeps coming at you, so we’ll see if the time off will help him step on the throttle earlier. With Renegade and Paladin, it’s like the 2023 Remsen, after which you had to like both the one-two finishers Dornoch and Sierra Leone. He had a good sharpener, working a half in :48 4/5, and there is no reason watching his earlier races why he shouldn’t win or at least run a big race in the Davis as long as he handles the sometimes quirky Tampa Bay Downs surface.
4. Litmus Test (Bob Baffert, Nyquist — Study Hard, by Malibu Moon)
After 30 years, we understand and can appreciate Baffert’s reluctance to commit to any races and his willingness to call audibles, as he puts it. So we never state emphatically where his horses are being targeted. Although it apeared Litmus Test was removed from the bubble wrap in which Baffert said he was placing him when he was entered in the Southwest Stakes, that was more of a look and see than an actual target. As we speak, it looks more like we won’t see him until the March 7 San Felipe Stakes. As we’ve been saying, this colt has plenty of foundation under him and Baffert can afford to play it week by week. He toyed with the idea of running in Saturday’s Robert Lewis, but said he doesn’t want to drop him back to a mile. It appears right now as if his possible starters in the Lewis, with the emphasis on possible, are Plutarch, Cherokee Nation, and Desert Gate, who at one time was being considered for the Saudi Derby, as was Buetane, who runs in Friday’s rescheduled Southwest Stakes. As for Litmus Test, he’s not exactly loafing around the barn, working five furlongs in 1:00 3/5 Saturday in company with Desert Gate. Litmus Test tracked him from the outside the whole way, but could never get on even terms with Desert Gate, who seemed to be going the easier of the two. Although Baffert is loaded with Derby hopefuls, Litmus Test still looks to be his best shot at 1 1/4 miles.
5. Strategic Risk (Mark Casse, Noble Bird — Strategize, by Afleet Alex)
We were hoping to get true line on him this week, but we’ll just have to wait until Friday when he faces a full field in the rescheduled Southwest Stakes, including several strong closers in Silent Tactic and Liberty National and a pair of dangerous speed horses in Buetane and the exciting first-out maiden winner D’Code, both stretching out to two turns. I have always felt Buetane will carry his speed longer distances, so this will be a strong test for Strategic Risk, who has excellent tactical speed and a powerful stretch run that can blow a race open, as indicated by his 106 and 105 Brisnet late pace figures in his Smarty Jones and In Reality blowouts. One thing is certain, he is not going to get the dawdling pace he got in the Smarty Jones, so it will be interesting to see where Javier Castellano places him. Remember, this colt has as strong a pedigree as you’re ever going to see on the Derby trail, one that is inundated with class and stamina. If he can get the right trip and continues to show improvement he should be a major force when the distances stretch out to 1 1/8 and 1 1/4 miles. After making a big jump from a “12 1/2” on Thoro-Graph to a “6” and then pairing up that “6” in the Smarty Jones, there is no reason to think he won’t take another step forward. But if one of the speedsters runs a monster number then a good placing will have to suffice.
6. Commandment (Brad Cox, Into Mischief — Sippican Harbor, by Orb)
He had a solid enough half-mile breeze in :50 at Payson Park as he points for the Fountain of Youth Stakes on February 28. There isn’t much new to say about him other than to reiterate how impressive this colt is finishing his races as if he’s just getting started to run. And you can see that in his gallop-outs where he just keeps going at a strong clip, often leaving his opponents far behind. You also have to love his Thoro-Graph pattern, which shows a steady improvement while making big forward leaps with each start, jumping five points and then three points to put him at “5 1/2.” One more similar move and he’s right there in striking position for the Derby. Although the Fountain of Youth is always a tough spot and a big jump from the Mucho Macho Man Stakes, he won’t have Ted Noffey to contend with and there shouldn’t be too much separating him from the others pointing for the race. At this point there doesn’t appear to be any standouts anywhere and you can bet Derby fever is going to become contagious, resulting in wide-open races with large fields.
7. Napoleon Solo (Chad Summers, Liam’s Map — Atomic Blonde, by Scat Daddy)
After two three-eighths breezes he moved up to a half-mile and turned in a solid work in :49 flat. The plans for the colt are uncertain, with several options being considered. He could return in the Fountain of Youth for his two-turn debut, have another one-turn race in the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct, where he won the Champagne, or try the tricky Tampa Bay Downs surface in the Tampa Bay Derby. Wherever he shows up he will attract a good deal of attention due to the mystique that surrounds him. That’s because, as we have explained, his Champagne victory was so freaky we can’t get a real handle on it. Like Nearly in the Holy Bull, we have to figure out how to interpret his sluggish closing fractions. But in his case his earlier fractions of :44 1/5 and 1:07 4/5 were so outrageous following a fast, but respectable :22 2/5 opening quarter, you have to question whether his :21 4/5 second quarter was accurate. But so far it hasn’t been challenged. What makes this performance even more amazing is that he was never asked for speed and was doing it all on his own. It was quite a sight seeing the 2-5 favorite It’s Our Time, coming off a 17 3/4-length career debut, in a full-out drive behind him from the three-eighths pole to the quarter pole, while Joel Rosario was sitting motionless on Napoleon Solo, not even moving his hands. Then when he asked him he was gone, finishing up under wraps. As I said, it was a freaky performance, on paper and visually.
8. Further Ado (Brad Cox, Gun Runner — Sky Dreamer, by Sky Mesa)
He has now had two works, breezing three-eighths in :37 and a half in :49 2/5, both excellent times at Payson Park, and is targeting the March 7 Tampa Bay Derby. With Ted Noffey gone, he now becomes Spendthrift Farm’s Derby hope, and you can’t ask for a better stand-in than a horse who broke his maiden by 20 lengths going 1 1/16 miles at Keeneland and then won the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. No, he didn’t dominate his opponents as he did at Keeneland, but it is important to note that after running a “10,” his Thoro-Graph number zoomed into orbit with a “negative-1” in that maiden romp. And you just don’t see 2-year-olds running that kind of number with such a huge jump. That put him in a situation where he had to regress or peak way too soon. We saw what happened to It’s Our Time in the Champagne, but Further Ado was able to cool off the engine, regress five points, and still win a major Grade 2 stakes, doing it in more of a professional manner by only 1 3/4 lengths. Let’s remember, however, that the runner-up in the Kentucky Jockey Club, Universe, didn’t flatter the form of that race by running up the track in the Smarty Jones Stakes. Universe also had finished second to Incredibolt in the Street Sense Stakes and the latter ran dead last in the Holy Bull Stakes. That could all mean nothing, but it still needs to be mentioned if you’re trying to judge the competition a horse has been running against. But he has done things so far that only top-class horses do.
9. Plutarch (Bob Baffert, Into Mischief — Stellar Wind, by Curlin)
Baffert still calls him his sneaky horse, and sneaky is a perfect word for him, as few people pay attention to him because of his jumbled career so far going back and forth from the dirt to the grass trying to find out just where he belongs. But judging from his last two works, six furlongs in 1:12 2/5 and 1:12 1/5, there is no reason to believe he is not a legitimate dirt horse, Baffert has even jumbled his works, putting him on the outside twice and inside twice, in company with his regular workmate Winston Ave in three of those works. In their most recent drill there was a pair working several lengths ahead of them and being hard ridden, but they just blew by them without being asked. Baffert thought so highly of him, he ran him in the Grade 1 American Pharoah Stakes despite him still being a maiden, and he finished third, beaten only three-quarters of a length, coming off a second in the Del Mar Juvenile Turf, in which he rallied from 13th. What I love most about him is his explosive turn of foot and ability to make up a lot of ground quickly, and then keep coming down the stretch. In several of his races on dirt and grass he has made a huge move on the far turn, just flying by horses. If he can show all those attributes in the Lewis and run to his works we could be looking a very serious Derby horse.
10. Class President (Todd Pletcher, Uncle Mo — TopQuality, by Quality Road)
This may seem like an odd move ranking a horse this high who is coming off a second-place finish going seven furlongs after dropping back from a mile. But to me this looks like an old school move, dropping a distance horse back to a sprint to sharpen him up for longer races. The fact is they wanted to run him in a mile allowance race, but the race didn’t fill, so they opted for the Swale rather than put him in the Holy Bull off one start, especially considering Pletcher had Nearly in that race. I love the way he chased a very fast horse in the favorite Solitude Dude. He wasn’t going to catch him going seven furlongs, but he kept up the chase and was striding out beautifully in the final furlong. Yes. he was beaten 3 3/4 lengths, but Solitude Dude was two-for-two, romping by nine lengths in his career debut and then winning the six-furlong Inaugrual Stakes at Tampa by 8 1/2 lengths in 1:09 flat. Now that he has that mile debut victory under him and should be razor-sharp coming off the Swale, I feel he is going to be very dangerous stretching out to two turns. He likely will go out of town for that, and it could come in the Tampa Bay Derby or the Risen Star, but that is just speculation. All in all, I just find this colt interesting and a potential overlay in the next Future Wager if he’s in the field. But if you follow Thoro-Graph you have to figure out what to make of his Thoro-Graph numbers, which started out great with a “6 3/4” but regressed to an “8 3/4.” I am going to chalk that up to dropping back in a sprint and simply playing catch-up. That first number was more indicative of who he is, and I expect a forward move from that number as the distances increase.
11. Golden Tempo (Cherie Devaux, Curlin — Carrumba, by Bernardini)
He looks to have come out of his LeComte Stakes victory in good shape, breezing a half in :49 3/5. He still will have only four starts before the Derby and has to make big strides from a speed-rating standoint, having run a “10” and “7 3/4” on Thoro-Graph, but with his classic pedigree top and bottom and his powerful stretch kick he could get significantly faster when the distances stretch out to 1 1/8 miles in the Risen Star and then 1 3/16 miles in the Lousiana Derby. And of course, the 1 1/4 miles of the Kentucky Derby should be right up his alley. He is in good hands with Cherie DeVaux, who also has the LeComte runner-up Mesquite, a potential Derby contender in his own right. What I like about Golden Tempo is that both his races on paper were very similar even though one was at six furlongs and the other at 1 1/16 miles, so he does his thing regardless of the distance and whether it’s off a :45 4/5 half or a :47 half. But in his first race, he walked out of the gate, circled the field five-wide at the top of the stretch, and exploded in the final sixteenth to win going away by 1 1/2 lengths. In the LeComte, he made his move between horses, cut to the rail in mid-stretch and again turned on the afterburners in the final sixteenth, winning by three-quarters of a length and was five lengths in front past the wire.
12. Blackout Time (Kenny McPeek, Not This Time — Beauty Parlor, by Elusive Quality)
For a horse who looked so good destroying his field in a one-mile maiden race and then running a powerful second to Ted Noffey in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity, this colt is rarely mentioned when the leading Derby horses are discussed. He does need to take bigger steps forward in his Thoro-Graph and Brisnet numbers than he has been, but he is going in the right direction and just has to show that he’s made a good transition from 2 to 3 after dealing with some physical issues. That will come in the March 1 Rebel Stakes. He breezed a half in :49 2/5 so he’s at least made a good start in his training. So far his biggest strength looks to be his tactical speed and his ability to use it in any kind of pace. He has sat off a :21 1/5 and :44 2/5 pace and finished a good second; he has battled on the lead through fractions of :24 and :47 4/5 and romped; and he has pressed Ted Noffey for second just off a :23 4/5 and :48 1/5 pace. As mentioned, he has the look of a stayer and moves like one, doing everything professionally and effortlessly. If he resembles the colt we saw last year he is capable of anything.
13. Jackson Hole (Todd Pletcher, Nyquist – Spa Treatment, by Bernardini)
I am moving him into the top 15 for several reasons. He is undefeated in two starts at Gulfstream and Fair Grounds. coming from four lengths back going seven furlongs in his debut and then winning on the lead the whole way stretching out to 1 1/16 miles. Visually, he does everything right, has a look of class about him, and I like the way he cut the corner turning for home in his last race, hugging the rail, which shows some athleticism when many young inexperienced horses will take that turn a bit wide. He also has a smooth fluid stride and never deviated off his path the entire length of the stretch, galloping out far ahead of the field. And his jockey Flavien Prat never once went to the crop, just throwing a couple of crosses on him and hand riding him to the wire. So what I’m seeing is a professional colt who is versatile, athletic, looks like he wants longer distances, and whose champion jockey rides him with great confidence. The huge smile on Prat’s face coming into the winner’s circle said it all. I am also intrigued by the fact that he has Dr. Fager four times in his pedigree. And talk about a great pinhook, he sold as a weanling for $385,000 and was bought as a yearling by WinStar Farm for $1.3 million. He is a stablemate of WinStar homebred Class President, and he will run next in the Fountain of Youth, while Class President will ship out of town, perhaps for the Risen Star or Tampa Bay Derby. What he has to do and fast is improve his Thoro-Graph numbers, which have gone from a “13” to a “10,” so he obviously needs to get faster.
14. Silent Tactic (Mark Casse, Tacitus — Magical Sign, by Gun Runner)
With him running in Friday’s Southwest Stakes and coming off a strong second in the Smarty Jones, in which he was able to close from eighth to second despite an agonizingly slow pace, he has to be given a legitimate shot to establish himself as a Derby contender. The big difference this time is that there is no way, with D’code and Buetane in the field, the pace will be anywhere near what he faced in the Smarty Jones. He did rally up the rail in that race and will be breaking from post 11 this time in the 14-horse field, so he could have his work cut out for him trying to save as much ground as possible early and then finding a clear path late. Because of the slow pace in the Smarty Jones, we still can’t be sure about the quality of the race, but that was his first start on dirt, having run twice at Woodbine over the synthetic surface. His Thoro-Graph pattern has shown improvement with each start, but he needs to take a much bigger jump forward this time to compete with the likes of Buetane and D’code. To demonstrate his rapid growth, he sold as a yearling for $60,000 and then was pinhooked at 2 for $500,000. With Strategic Risk, the horse who beat him in the Smarty Jones, he gives trainer Mark Casse a strong one-two punch from close to the pace and from far back.
15. Intrepido (Jeff Mullins, Maximus Mischief — Overly Indulgent, by Pleasantly Perfect)
Assuming he will be running in Saturday’s Robert B. Lewis Stakes, we have to put him in the Rankings in case he runs back to his victory in the American Pharoah Stakes and makes us forget his uninspiring fifth-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, which has already lost its one-two finishers. He is also looking to make a mockery of his 74-1 odds and 87-1 odds in pools 2 and 3 of the Derby Future Wager. I admit I have no idea how good he is, but he did beat two Baffert horses, Desert Gate and Plutarch, in the American Pharoah and did break his maiden going a mile at Del Mar by 3 1/4 lengths in 1:35 3/5, also beating two Baffert horses, Plutarch and the regally bred Provenance. So considering we have Plutarch ranked above him it only makes sense to excuse the Breeders’ Cup and give him another chance, and also to make those who bet him at those ridiculous odds very happy. He has a fascinating pedigree, with his sire Maximus Mischief, a son of Into Mischief, having won the Remsen but being retired early with an injury. His only inbreeding is to Affirmed, which is something you don’t see too often. His broodmare sire, Pleasantly Perfect has the distinction of winning the Breeders’ Cup Classic at age 5 and the Dubai World Cup at age 6, yet his dam traces to the Allen Jerkens-trained Duck Dance, one of the fastest sprinters I have ever seen.
KNOCKING ON THE DOOR
Did you ever go to a party and all the exciting guests were late and you sat around sipping your drink and making small talk until they arrived, or wondering if they would even show up at all? When most everyone’s favorite guest, the charismatic Ted Noffey, had to leave early, all you could do was wait and see which, if any, of the latecomers arrived in time to liven up the party.
Enough of the analogies. We have had many exciting newcomers since last summer, from IT’S OUR TIME’S 17 3/4-length romp in his career debut, which turned out to be only a teaser, and EWING’S 12-length stroll in the park, which so far has led to only one sprint stakes score, to other monster debuts or maiden victories by the likes of ENGLISHMAN (by 7 1/4 lengths in a blazing 1:21 1/5), CANNONEER (by 7 1/4 lengths in 1:21 3/5), D’CODE (by 8 1/4 lengths in 1:09 2/5), CANALETTO (by eight lengths going a mile), SECURED FREEDOM (by 4 1/2 lengths in 1:15 4/5 for 6 1/2 furlongs), IRON HONOR (earning a 99 Brisnet speed figure), THUNDEROUSLY (by five lengths going 1 1/16 miles), CHIEF WALLABEE (who had people raving about his class and power), and the highly regarded POTENTE (the latest Baffert winner).
But the question has been, did they all come along too late to make the party on the first Saturday in May? We just saw Cannoneer take on stakes company unsuccessfully, and D’code will try to hit the Derby trail in Friday’s Southwest Stakes after running an outrageous “1 3/4” Thoro-Graph number in his career debut. Another maiden race that I believe unveiled two serious runners was the stretch battle between the narrow winner NOBLE AFFAIR and the rapidly improving CORONA de ORO, who finished 8 1/2 lengths ahead of the third horse, with the top two coming home in :11 3/5 and :12 1/5 in the six-furlong race at Fair Grounds.
BRANT continues to progress, working a half in :48 4/5. Considering he is just starting back in his training it’s possible he could point for the San Felipe Stakes. He has shown he has a high cruising speed and can maintain it through the entire race. With his running style so far and having Liam’s Map as a broodmare sire, there is still a question of how far he wants to go. But he is inbred three times to Fappiano, which is huge as seen below, and his dam is inbred to U.S. and European classic winners Damascus and Roberto. She also traces to His Majesty twice through Pleasant Colony and Andover Way, dam of Dynaformer. To those not familiar with Fappiano’s amazing dominance, major stars who trace to him include American Pharoah, Arrogate, Flightline, Gun Runner, Tapit, Unbridled, Sovereignty, Journalism, Sierra Leone, Fierceness, White Abarrio, Cody’s Wish, Empire Maker, Nysos, Arcangelo, Seize the Grey, and so many more. So being inbred three times to him is huge.
Baffert was very impressed with CHEROKEE NATION’S fast-closing second in a one-mile maiden race in 1:35 3/5 on January 9, and considers him a potential Derby horse despite his not having won a race yet. “He ran a big race and was flying at the end,” he said. Baffert thought so highly of him he sent him to Churchill Downs for the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes after getting beat a nose in a one-mile maiden race. The son of Not This Time finished fifth, beaten nine elghths, after having to steady going into the first turn. We’ll see if he shows up in the Robert Lewis Stakes, along with DESERT GATE, who as mentioned earlier was impressive working in company with Litmus Test. That work alone makes him very bettable in the Lewis. In Week 1 I wrote about BUETANE, who is pserceived by some as a sprinter right now, but watch him in the Southwest Stakes. If he can handle the two turns, which I feel he can, then he would be another serious Baffert horse to keep an eye on.
Although Kenny McPeek has entered LIBERTY NATIONAL in the Southwest Stakes, he has yet to make a decision whether he will run there or wait for the Risen Star. McPeek has always been extremely high on this colt and even more so after his fast closing second in the Gun Runner Stakes, in which he had trouble early in the race and galloped out strong, as if he was just beginning to run. Earlier, we mentioned the disappointing effort by UNIVERSE, but McPeek will put blinkers back on and has sharpened him from the gate. Next time in the Risen Star Stakes he no doubt will get a more aggressive ride and with a new rider, Chris Elliot.
Trainer Tim Yakteen said he plans on stretching SECURED FREEDOM out to two turns in Satuday’s Robert B. Lewis Stakes. The son of Practical Joke, out of an Uncle Mo mare, was impressive breaking his maiden on December 28, sitting just off a blistering :21 1/5 and :43 2/5 pace and then drawing off to a 4 1/2 length victory in a sharp 1:15 4/5 for the 6 1/2 furlongs. He was strong on the far turn and then finished it off with a monster gallop-out. One of those he left behind was the Baffert-trained Winston Ave, who is Plutarch’s regular workmate and always finishes on even terms with him in fast time, and I like the way he drops his shoulder and reaches out with great extension while keeping a perfectly straight course. With his Thoro-Graph numbers jumping from a “10 1/2” to a “2 3/4,” it will be interesting to see where he goes from there moving way up in company against seasoned two-turn horses, several of them trained by Bob Baffert. His female family has a number of class and stamina influences and if he can carry his speed and compete with the accomplished horses he’ll be facing in the Lewis, watch out, because he has all the tools to be a serious Derby horse.
Hopefully they will finally get to run the 1 1/8-mile Withers Stakes at Aqueduct on Friday. The likely favorite SCHOOLYARDSUPERMAN, trained by Chad Brown, has improved with every start and was very impressive breaking his maiden last out by 5 3/4 lengths going a flat mile and coming home his final quarter in a sharp :24 3/5 after leading most of the way. By Practical Joke, out of a Tiznow mare, this handsome gray has a very efficient way going and a good blend of mile speed on top and stamina on the bottom.
Brown also has a major player in OTTINHO, a son of Quality Road who has already won at 1 1/8 miles in his second career start, scoring a gutsy victory by a head after being engaged in an all-out battle every step of the race, first with a 29-1 shot, who seemed to have softened him up for the other Chad Brown horse, the favored Hadrian’s Wall, who appeared ready to go right by Ottinho in the stretch. But he somehow dug in and refused to be passed in one of the gamest performances we’ve seen in a while. He would’nt even let Hadrian’s Wall pass him on the gallop-out, conjuring up visions of his broodmare sire Giant’s Causeway, who was near impossible to pass. I don’t know good this colt is, but you don’t want to get in a fight with him. It is kind of ironic that Brown’s two horses are out of mares by Giant’s Causeway and Tiznow, who staged one of the great battles in Breeders’ Cup history in the 2000 Classic.
Although he is still a maiden and is coming off a well-beaten fifth in the Remsen Stakes at odds of 55-1, keep an eye on the Pletcher-Repole colt GRITTINESS, who previously had run a strong second to his stablemate Courting stretching out to a mile at Aqueduct and closing his final quarter in a stunning :24 flat. I liked the way he was striding out at the end, so there no doubt is some talent there, and he should appreciate trying 1 1/8 miles again. By Curlin, out of an Oxbow mare, he has a ton of European stamina in his female family. Another to watch in the Withers is MAILATA, who is a total unknown, but could be any kind judging by his three straight dominating victories at Parx, including a 3 1/2-length score in the Pennsylvania Futurity and most recently a 19-length demolition in the Parx Future Stars Stakes, both at seven furlongs. And we also have to mention TALK TO ME JIMMY, who broke his maiden by 5 1/2 lengths last out at Aqueduct, going wire-to-wire and running the mile in a sharp 1:35 flat. Brown looks to have a strong hand here, but watch for a big stretch run from Grittiness.
Speaking of COURTING, a whopping $5 million Keeneland yearling purchase, he also ran in the Remsen off that maiden race and finished fourth in an effort that was much better than it looks on paper. He looked to be a colt who was still learning last year and far from polished. But he is only going to improve with maturity and I am looking forward to seeing what he does when he returns, which should be soon judging by his series of solid half-mile works.
The exciting maiden winner ENGLISHMAN had his first work, three-eighths in :39 1/5 at Fair Grounds, since crushing a maiden field by 7 1/2 lengths in a blazing 1:21 1/5 for seven furlongs in his career debut.
Right up there with the most impressive horses we’ve seen so far is the Bill Mott-trained CHIEF WALLABEE, who was both brilliant and flawless winning his career debut on January 10. He finally returned to the work tab with a :50 2/5 half-mile breeze. But as of now, his stablemate THUNDEROUSLY, who was also impressing winning his debut going two turns the same day, has not returned to the work tab.
A look at the beaten horses in the Holy Bull. Runner-up BRAVARO, who is on the improve, tracked the two leaders in third and basically picked up half the pieces when Cannoneer folded. The late-closing PROJECT ACE ran to form, coming from 15 lengths back to finish third and proving he is capable of unleashing that big closing kick against any kind of competition. As for INCREDIBOLT, it would be an understatent to say his performance was a big disappointment, as he did absolutely no running and just kept falling farther and farther back from last, finishing 25 lengths behind the winner. It may sound strange, but his race was so bad I can consider throwing it out. Although I don’t completely buy the excuse he didn’t like the track as the sole reason for such a dismal showing, I do believe his mind was not on the race for whatever reason, and something was bugging him. He’s shown he’s too good a horse to think he wont bounce back.
TALKIN, who we featured last week as an under-the-radar horse to watch, breezed a half in :50 2/5 at Palm Meadows. We’ll keep monitoring him closely and see if he can bounce back to his earlier form.
As of now, the Japanese are planning to send five horses to the Saudi Derby, headed by SATONO VOYAGE, a winner of his last three starts, including a victory in the one-mile Cattleya Stakes, a Kentucky Derby points prep at Tokyo Race Course, in his last start. By Into Mischief, he out of Jolie Olimpica, a Grade 1 winner in Brazil at age 3; a Grade 2 winner and Grade 1 runner-up in the U.S. at age 4; and a Grade 2 winner in Canada at age 5. If you want stamina, his broodmare sire is Drosselmeyer, winner of the Belmont Stakes and Breeders’ Cup Classic, and his second dam is by Trempolino, winner of the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe and second in the Breeders’ Cup Turf. He also is inbred to Slew ‘o Gold, two-time Eclipse Award winner and Hall of Famer and the only horse to sweep the Fall Handicap Triple Crown consisting of the Woodward, Marlboro Cup, and Jockey Club Gold Cup.
WONDER DEAN is coming off two close seconds in stakes, and his sire and dam’s grandsires, Sunday Silence and Charismatic, both won the first two legs of the Triple Crown. BEST GREEN won his first four starts before finishing a close third in the listed Zen Nippon Nisai Yushun Stakes at one mile. TOKAI MA CHERIE is a daughter of Drefong who has two victories and two seconds in five starts, with her last start a victory in a listed stakes at a mile on November 27. The late addition is KEIAI AGITO, who has two wins and a second in his three starts, including a pair of head victories in his last two races, the last at odds of 39-1.
Carrie and Craig Brogden of Machmer Hall were excited to have two homebreds, Litmus Test and the hard-knocking and game SOLDIER N DIPLOMAT, who is entered in the Southwest Stakes, on the Derby trail. But they got a pleasant surprise when another homebred, SALLOOM, crushed a maiden field by almost seven lengths going a mile at Meydan and now could show up in the UAE Derby unless his connections want to give him more time to develop and mature. He has had major issues with the gate, and in fact flipped in the gate in late December and had to be scratched. But he was perfect this time. He is a big powerhouse of a colt who does wear front wraps and you could see that power as he charged down the stretch drawing away from his 14 opponents. As the track announcer said, “This is the horse we’ve been waiting to see.”
Racing historian, author, and award-winning retired journalist for the Daily Racing Form and The Blood-Horse, Steve Haskin was inducted into the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame’s Media Roll of Honor in 2016. Known for his racing knowledge and insightful prose, he has been an exclusive contributor to Secretariat.com since 2020.
A good weekend of preps – 17 left to give us a pool of 25 contenders.
Thunderously, no work since the race on January 10, which is a month, he is most likely targeting the Belmont Stakes.
If Plutarch runs in the Kentucky Derby he would be the subject of a curious story. The son of Into Mischief would be called “The Flagbearer of Records”.
Should Plutarch win the Derby his sire Into Mischief will be the sole record holder of Derby winners with four.
But Plutarch’s writing in the record book wouldn’t stop there…
A win would also place his trainer, Bob Baffert, alone atop of all-time Derby standings with seven victories, finally surpassing the legendary Ben A. Jones, whose mark of six wins stood intact for 68 years.
A third record would belong to Plutarch’s dam, Stellar Wind, as the only champion 3-year-old filly with six (6) grade one triumphs producing a Derby winner.
For historical context, only one Derby winner has come from a champion 3-year-old filly: Tim Tam, whose dam Two Lea was co-champion 3-year-old filly of 1949 (sharing the title with another Calumet’s filly named Wistful) and later Champion Handicap Mare of 1950. Two Lea captured three major races that would eventually become Grade 1 Stakes – The Santa Margarita, the Vanity, and the Hollywood Gold Cup- though grading did not yet exist in her era.
Plutarch, should he rise to the moment, would not simply win a Derby. He would rewrite three chapters of racing history in the two most glorious minutes of his young life.
I could read posts like this all day long. Great stuff. Thank you.
Thank you very much Robert… I really appreciate your comment… blog mates like you inspire us to keep chatting about the history of horse racing…!
Nelson, many thanks for providing such a thought-provoking post on Plutarch’s journey down this year’s Derby trail. As you probably know by now, I’m a big fan of several colts sired by Into Mischief. Currently, Plutarch is at the top of my Into Mischief watch list, closely followed by Renegade and Commandment. I would add a few others worth watching moving forward. They are, Canaletto, Potente, Cannoneer, Envision, Provenance, Into the Beast and Rebel Instinct.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see four or five Into Mischief colts make the Derby starting gate.
Best of luck, Nelson.
My pleasure Bill ! I am glad you liked this comment about Plutarch…
Another Into Mischief that could be surprising everyone in the Risen Star is Quality Mischief … his last two performances are better than they look on paper…!
I didn’t know Stellar Wind was 3yo Eclipse Winner….I remember her for her two great wins, over Beholder, they were more than ten lengths clear of third place, I thought their battle before the 2016 Breeders Cup might take the wind out of their sails, but Beholder won the Distaff….that year I had bet two huge doubles, with Arrogate to Stellar Wind and Beholder, figuring So bird hadn’t faced anything like those two….I nearly lost, Songbird was something else, trained by that guy Hollendorfer, the scapegoat……
Yes Mathew … Stellar Wind was awarded the 3-year-old title after a runner-up effort in the Breeder’s Cup Distaff behind older Stopchargingmaria…
Stellar Wind was even better at 4 and 5 but the titles of older mares went to Beholder and Forever Unbridled as they were Breeder’s Cup Distaff champions in those years.
Stellar Wind could not win any Breeder’s Cup Distaff but is so far easily winning the race in the breeding arena against its winners Beholder, Forever Unbridled and Stopshargingmaria…
Beholder has a gr1 winner and a gr3 turf Sprint winner, out of the few that have started….
I know QB One didn’t turn out very good, (I saw him in person he was gigantic)….but a gr1 and a gr3 winner ain’t too shabby, ….of the few that have started…..graded stakes for a filly is what they aim for, I’d consider Beholder a success, as a broodmares….
I saw her win the Beholder Mile at SA in 2017. She walked right past me on her way back to the barn, not six feet away. I could feel the energy she generated.
Good stuff Nelson !!! Even the host of this column should be impressed with this post.
Thanks DTS … I am glad you like it,
I’m on a roll, just hit the superfecta in race #2 at Oaklawn Park. I keyed the favorite, Brilliant Man, at 3/5, on top, with a few bombers underneath. The super paid $6,476.30.
Congrats Bill… you have become an expert Superfectology… you have gotten a nice bankroll for the whole year now!
Wowser Bill, your sitting under a lucky star !!!
“Catch a falling star, put in your pocket, never let it fade away”
Bill,
I can hear Jimney Cricket singing in the background.
DTS
Perry Como, 1957.
Thanks, Nelson
I certainly don’t proclaim to be a superfecta expert, I’ve just been plain lucky of late.
Beautiful ..
Bill
Out standing !
Super Bowl 60
The New England Patriots will surrender their muskets to the high-flying Seattle Seahawks in today’s game. The opening point spread has remained constant throughout the past two weeks, with Seattle favored by 4.5 points. I’m somewhat surprised that there’s been no movement on those odds. I expected the line to move up considerably. Seattle is the better team, and the better team usually wins the game. I’ll go with the Seahawks, -4.5. Take it to the bank.
Bill:
Good luck with your SB bets; you had a great day yesterday with the horses!
I am lucky that I have both sides covered today with SB exacta bets I made a few months ago. It will be the most stress-free SB I have had from a wagering standpoint!
Thanks for the reply, biggy312.
Just to be clear, I didn’t place a bet on the Super Bowl. I was just pointing out the way I would have bet the game.
I was impressed by Renegade, yesterday, (and great name!)….he sat behind slow fractions then exploded—he didn’t beat much, but he looked very strong ….I also liked Intrepido’s effort, staying down there and taking pressure from Plutarch, who…like his mama is a tough battler in a dog fight…but Intrepido hadn’t run in three months, and he never gave in….perhaps the three year old that ran yesterday that will turn out to be the most accomplished….is a maiden filly named Kokomotion, winner of the Tampa 9th….first time running…you just don’t see that too often, debut race…shuffled back to 12th and last …huge backstretch move (early move)….usually they falter, but Kokomotion kept on widening, I know she’s not a Derby horse…but by year’s end she might be well known…..
Intrepido ran arguably the best race, considering and Secured Freedom was making up ground on the 2 leaders with increasing speed, so I don’t think Plutarch’s “stretching” of his speed will last another furlong… 1:37 is not a fast time for a mile race. And :13.33 for the closing furlong? Mmm, mmm, mmm. Not gonna cut it on Derby Day
No, I agree we did not see the Derby Winner yesterday….Secured Freedom did run well, his first time around two turns….but I do think Plutarch is a nice colt, we saw some nice colts….but we didn’t see the Derby Winner….
My thoughts on the Robert Lewis. I was at SA yesterday and beautiful day for racing. First of all the race did not develop the way I envisioned. I expected Desert Gate (what a disappointment) and Robusta leading the race going into first turn followed by Intrepido, Secured Freedom Cherokee Nation, Briggs Army power and Plutarch bringing up the rear. I did not expect Intrepido to be leading and Plutarch be near the lead like he was. When the race was done I looked at the time and was disappointed that it was 1:37+ as visually it looked faster and I thought it might be low 1:36 to high 1:35. Desert Gate a big disappointment not sure were Baffert goes with him here. Unless he comes up with a legit excuse ( lost 2 shoes in the race, bled etc. ) he is not a Derby horse and finds softer spots. Secured Freedom came home the way I thought but definitely ran the longest race. (there is a way to figure that out)of all the horses and definitely will improve off of it. Intrepido ran a stronger race than I expected and should also improve off of it. Plutarch we learned has a ton of stamina and we know he is a versatile runner but with that said I don’t feel he can win the KD with the way he ran today. Now on to the Risen Star and a horse named Palladin and will he live up to his #1 ranking? I would leapfrog Renegade over Nearly this week.
I think Nearly looked better than anything we saw this week….also …eight horses in Risen Star a bit disappointing, I like Golden Tempo…..
SA yesterday ….looked pristine…..days gone by, for me, but the track looked great, and I played three races, hit on Yellow Card, win and exacta, he stormed home, and was twenty clear on the gallop out—hes a Breeders Cup Turf Sprint contender!….
Though I hadn’t been following Plutarch previously, I’ll be interested to see where he goes from here. I got to see Stellar Wind in person on my one and only visit to Santa Anita, so it’ll be fun to follow her son’s journey on the Derby trail.
Here is what impressed me so much with Renagade. He is running 2nd to last at the beginning of of race. The fractions in front of him are moderate not super fast not super slow than on the far turn Irad makes his move with him and he starts passing horses like they are standing still (similar to Arazi) these were not tiring horses and then gets to the stretch and blows the field away. No doubts about it !!! One of the most impressive performances this year so far for 3 year olds (IMO).
Some of them were tiring. Dr. Kapur and Confessional ended up near the back of the pack. Puma did quite well, wasn’t as close to the lead but maintained his energy and of course the place horse had been on the lead for the whole race.
Horses in any racing will be tiring in the stretch. Your point?
My point is pretty self-evident. The ones that don’t tire as much are the ones that win, whether this time or the next time.
I am glad to see Napoleon Solo training steadily with four solid workouts this year already at Palm Meadows training center. His last one was 4 furlongs in 48 flat being the fastest of 19 workouts at the distance. To just have an idea of how good his drill is take note that Talkin (runner-up in the Champagne) clocked 49.75 in his third workout of the year at Palm Meadows.
Napoleon Solo seems to have fully recovered from the health issue that Steve had reported earlier.
My first rush of excitement seeing Napoleon Solo crushing the field in the Champagne Stakes was understandable as the stout gray was the most impressive winner of the celebrated Stakes since Easy Goer and Sea Hero three decades ago.
How can one forget that the Champagne Stakes showcased greatness throughout the 60’s and 70’s, an era when New York reigned as the center of American racing? Champagne was synonym with Champ in the golden era of racing. So, it feels almost inevitable to keep searching for a horse capable of rekindling those indelible memories.
The powerful presence of Napoleon Solo brought flashbacks of other standout grays -Winning Colors powering home in her epic Derby win, and Knicks Go with Joel Rosario riding him in bold, front-running style all the way to a Horse of the Year title in 2021.
I’m just hoping my hype for Napoleon Solo sticks around once I see if he can keep his superb speed going -another eight of a mile, and then another- against truly top-class fields.
Guess we’ll find out soon enough…
RE: G2, Risen Star, Saturday, 2-14, Fair Grounds, R12
The official entries for referenced race have been released.
1) Universe
2) Golden Tempo
3) Carson Street
4) Paladin
5) Chip Honcho
6) Colt Forty Seven
7) Courting
8) Quality Mischief
More than likely, Paladin will be the post time favorite, but being a sucker for deep closers, I’ll go with Golden Tempo for the win. He checks a lot of boxes, IMO. He’s homebred from the Phipps/St. Elias Stables, excellent trainer/rider and his deep closing style is well suited for the long stretch at the Fair Grounds. By Curlin, out of a Bernardini mare, he’s bred to run all day, and then some. My betting strategy will take shape as we get closer to the race.
Probably not going to bet this race but anxious to see how Carson Street runs in it.
Bill: I’m thrilled that Paladin is making his 3YO debut. I’d like to see an exacta with Paladin and Golden Tempo myself.
My Derby Futures $40.00 win wager on Plutarch, at 76-1 (Pool 1), is starting to look pretty good. In addition, I keyed him on top, with Brant (14-1), Further Ado (21-1) and Intrepido (34-1), in a $4.00 dollar exacta wager. Hopefully, Bob Baffert will keep Plutarch on dirt and nix any plans to try him on turf again.
Two Into Mischief colts won their respective Derby prep races, Renegade in the Sam F Davis and Plutarch in the Robert B. Lewis. Commandment, by Into Mischief, is waiting in the wings for the FOY.
Will Into Mischief be the sire of back-to-back Kentucky Derby winners? Stay tuned.
Glad you have a live shot in the Big Show, Bill! Plutarch looked tough against Intrepido in the stretch. I was pleased my pick, Secured Freedom, got his legs under him and rallied to finish third.
Thanks, Ms Blacktype
I wasn’t as pleased as you were that Secured Freedom nosed out Desert Gate. It cost me a big return on my trifecta wager. However, as I mentioned, I did hit a $10.00 superfecta by Keying Plutarch on top with Intrepido, Desert Gate and Secured Freedom underneath, which returned $1,042.00. I’ll take that every time.
Both are by Curlin mares also. Nice job to have those futures. Best of luck.
Thanks, Robert.
With their respect to their Curlin mares, I would give the edge to Plutarch. His dam, Stellar Wind won six G1 races, with $3 million dollars in career earnings. However, Bernardini was the sire of Renegade’s 2nd dam, so there’s plenty of class and stamina there as well. When comparing the pedigrees of Plutarch and Renegade on their dam side, it’s hard to say which one is better, IMO.
Both of these Into Mischief colts have a bright future moving forward on the Derby trail.
1:37 for the mile and :13.33 for the last furlong?
By all means: double down on Plutarch and be sure to hand us a pile of money on SA Derby and KY Derby Days by betting him bigly!
Don’t necessarily think Plutarch will run his next race the same way he ran yesterday. He has run from way back and come flying home. Don’t know exactly were Baffert will point him and it may not necessarily be the Santa Anita derby.
Lol
Sovereignty, obvious your knowledge far outranks some attempting to pass themselves off as experts.
Renegade looked awfully good in the Sam F. Davis. Wayne’s Law was a real surprise, and I’m thrilled The Puma got the show.
Yes Ms Blacktype … Good race for The Puma despite running greenly in the homestretch … he is still learning and will be improving great deal next time
Ms Blacktype was very impressed with Renegade race and this is the type of horse that can win Pletcher a KD win. I also liked the time to on another thought though not sure what he beat but like I said he did it IMPRESSIVELY !!! Agree with you on Puma, Nelson… he still looked good.
Blackout Time to target the Rebel Stakes for 3YO debut: looking forward to see!
Confessional prevails. His workouts are impressive.
Did you bet the house on him???
Another Cox horse circling the drain !!!
Thanks for providing a good laugh, DTS.
Talking to yourself again. Lol
Always need a backup account or four … lol! Never fails, year after year after year: same song and dance routine.
Anything for attention.
Did you bet the house on Buetane?
Oh I forgot I was writing to Mike Relva……… A Nobody…. No did not bet the race with Buetane but did quite well with Plutarch at Santa Anita today!!!
You’re a card, Barbara! You have little to do other than post 24/7 using tons of names.
Not sure who this Barbara you are referring to Mike, but hope she is not a ” KAREN ” like you are !!! But then again if she is an annoyance to you the better!!!
So, you didn’t bet the loser, but did bet the winner?
How convenient, you know, since you don’t have any means of showing proof here. You sound exactly like another person who posts on that other racing site..
Wash,rinse,repeat!
No more than you, unfortunately didn’t bet your house on Buetane.
See how gloating is unattractive, Downer? Might wanna put some brakes on that for a while..
First of all did bet the Southwest Stakes because I driving nonstop from San Diego to Palmdale CA and did not make a bet ahead of time because I thought I would get there in time for the race. I don’t like to bet races ahead of time because I like to see the horses ahead of time. I gave up playing KDFW years ago. Due to heavy traffic (Friday afternoon) and an accident a trip that I have done before in 2 1/2 hrs took me 4+ hours. When I got to Palmdale the race was over. I don’t bet every Baffert horse in every race in fact passed on a couple yesterday and don’t arbitrarily dismiss them like you and your kissing cousin, Mike R. do because of your hatred for the man. You have lost a lot races because of this bigotry!!!
Making it personal cause everyone doesn’t worship your king. We can disagree without the low rent crap. I’m not a fan of Cox,as indicated.
Seems we’ve seen this movie many times.
Steve, I am with you on Incredibolt! I was going to ask you if he had an excuse, but I read your assessment and it seems there really isn’t much of one unfortunately
The Puma is running in the Sam F. Davis Stakes shelving an attempt to break his maiden at Gulfstream.
The son of champion Essential Quality will have a tough time trying to defeat Renegade and another son of Essential Quality in Confessional.
Mage’s team is clearly high on the raw talent of The Puma. Obviously, the goal is not winning the Sam F. Davis but to draw a base line to keep moving forward towards the Florida Derby… still, the race will be an exciting contest…
Hi Nelson
Keep an eye on Dr. Kapur in the SFD. Obviously, Renegade is the horse to beat, but I believe Dr. Kapur will finish somewhere in the superfecta. I’ll wheel Renegade on top, with Confessional, Epic Desire, The Puma and Dr. Kapur underneath, in my superfecta wager. That is: 6/ 1,23,9/ 1.2.3.9/1,2,39. I’ll play $1.00 Super Hi-5 as well, using that same configuration, 6/1,2,3,9/ 1,2,3,9/ 1,2,3,9/ 1,2,3,9.
Safe trips to all.
Hi Bill… Your Superfecta looks super logic and likely to pay… Dr. Kapur will be a player with Tampa’s leading Jockey up…
Good luck and enjoy all the beautiful horses this weekend!
Thanks for the reply, Nelson. I just hit a nice $10.00 dollar trifecta in race 10, at Tampa Bay. I keyed Irad Ortiz Jr.’s horse, Concrete Glory on top, with the two favorites underneath. My trifecta paid $640.00.
Now, it’s time for the Sam B. Davis.
Congrats on your Trifecta hit… I also got that Trifecta but I only bet $5 for a payout of $319.. I did not bet in the Samy F Davis as I never know how the horses would take it to the peculiarities of Tampa’s dirt…
Good for you, Nelson
The Robert B. Lewis is coming up in about a half hour. We could see an epic stretch duel between the two Baffert colts, Plutarch and Desert Gate. From my perspective, Plutarch checks the most boxes.
I’ll key Plutarch on top, with Desert Gate and Intrepido underneath in a $20.00 trifecta wager.
Safe trips to all.
I will play a $2-Trifecta 1/2,3,4,6,7 just for the fun of it …
I got nosed out for show, in my trifecta wager, but made up for it with superfecta wager. I keyed Plutarch on top, with Desert Gate, Intrepido and Secured Freedom underneath in a $10.00 super. I collected $1,042 dollars.
A nice profitable day. 🙂
Congrats on your wins today Bill… keep the good handicapping work on all the coming Derby preps …
Nice Superfecta Bill !!!
He was pretty game despite late trouble in the stretch and I will give him another opportunity to show himself. I haven’t drawn a line through “Puma” just yet…
Puma has potential.
fyi, here are current futures odds for Robert Lewis Stakes horses:
Desert Gate 33-1
Plutarch 30-1
Cherokee Nation 50-1
Intrepido 35-1
Briggs Army Power not listed
Robusta 125-1
Secured Freedom not listed
Will definitely be different odds after the race
thanks for the update biggy! can you please give us current odds on silent tactic?
Hi Bruce:
Silent Tactic was 100-1 prior to SW, 60-1, just after and is currently 40-1
thank you again biggy!
Any time!
Desert Gate is a quality colt, and I like Intrepido….but futures odds need to be higher, for my interest….
I agree
Just read Fan Duel TV shutting down this spring.
Just FYI for those of you who watch horse racing on that channel.
Wow, I hadn’t heard that. They must be losing a lot of money. Given how many folks here that watch racing on You Tube and other feeds, it makes a lot of sense.
Thanks for the heads-up, Lynda! I just read that it will sign off in mid-April. The times, they keep a-changin’…
Fanduel Sports is shutting down, but FanDuel TV where horse racing is shown is not. At least that is what I read.
What will Todd and Simon and the rest do?
I’m giving Intrepido another chance today…interesting breeding on the guy, he’s already beaten these….
At first glance the Robert Lewis Stakes looks like it could be the Bob Baffert show and it very well could be but there could be a couple of horses in there that could make it interesting. One horse Robusta could be pushing the pace and making Desert Gate work a little on the front end. But another horse that may be an up and comer and one that Steve pointed out in this article is Secured Freedom who won in a nice time last out has two good works and has the services of a hot jockey. He could be coming home strong at the end. Not sure sure if Intrepido is set up to run his best here.
This could be a very interesting race
Silent Tactic and 88 Beyer came from behind win from last place in the Southwest. Closed from 9 lengths out at the first call.
Talk to Me Jimmy and 83 for the front-running score in the Withers.
Complete opposite race shapes for the Withers and Southwest
I agree, Derbyologist. Have no idea what to make of Talk to Me Jimmy. It will be really interesting to see what Steve thinks of the race, and the horse.
Mighty impressive win, by Silent Tactic today….He’s a big beautiful colt….
Only his second dirt try ..
Nice win by Silent Tactic in the Southwest;
In futures after the race, interestingly enough, both Buetane and D’Code are currently lower odds (40-1) than Silent Tactic (100-1 pre-race; 60-1 current). I put $17 on ST prior to the race…
Also, not sure why, but Thunderously has moved from 40-1 to 25-1…looking forward to tomorrow’s races; I have Plutarch in my futures stable…
Makes more sense to me: Silent Tactic now 40-1 in futures; same as Buetane and D’Code…
This makes more sense to me: Silent Tactic now 40-1 in futures; same as Buetane and D’Code…
Sorry for (almost) duplicate post!
Silent Tactic wins the Southwest Stakes convincingly… this time the pace was more favorable to him than the one he braved in first dirt effort (in the Smarty Jones Stakes).
Interesting to see a 4Sx3D inbreed to A.P. Indy in his pedigree and having similar low-headed way of running with efficient strides in the stretch…
It is nice to see Gun Runner shining as a broodmare sire as well… the time is not that inspiring but the son of Tacitus is still improving…
What a winning move from Silent Tactic in the Southwest! Congratulations, Steve, you already had him in the top dozen. Much more impressive that Jimmy’s runaway performance in the Withers. If I was a young thoroughbred, I would not have wanted to run on that cold track today, but he won for fun. And there’s more fun TK tomorrow!
Impressive closing effort by Silent Tactic, to win the Southwest Stakes.
After setting the pace, D’Code ran out of gas. The super paid over 5K.
Back to the drawing board.
Bill, D’Code was very rank early and fighting his jockey, as most of the horses on the lead were. It was only his second state. I hope his connections regroup and point him for a first level allowance — or maybe a soft points race!
Start, dadgumit!
You got the right, Ms. Blacktype. He certainly needs to learn how to relax in the early going.
Hats off to Silent Tactic’s connections, they have an outstanding prospect on the Derby trail. Deep closers like Silent Tactic and Golden Tempo look very impressive moving forward.
edit….You got that right.
Butane ran a very good race but wish he could have been farther off the pace at the beginning. I think post position caused him to be more forwardly placed. He tried all the way to the end. Silent Tactic very nice race
Eh … he just got beaten by better horses.
From were he was positioned through out the race I was happy with it.
Those who live in the real world see it for what it is.
Talk to me Steve, about Talk to Me Jimmy!!!
In the I wonder whatever happened to that horse department…. just got a notice that American Promise had a 3 furlongs workout at the Fairgrounds.
RE: Southwest Stakes
Upon further review, I decided to reconfigure my superfecta wager.
I’ll wheel D’Code, (#2) and Buetane, (#3) on top, with Rancho Santa Fe, (#4), Liberty National, (#7), Strategic Risk, (#9), Silent Tactic, (#11) and Soldier N Diplomant, (#13) underneath in the 3rd and 4th slots.
That is: 2-3/ 2-3/ 4,7,9,11,13/ 4,7,9,11,13.
I’ll flip that over, and play an additional super wager, as follows.
4,7,9,11,13/ 2,3/ 2,3/ 4,7,9,11,13
Each $1.00 superfecta wager will cost $40.00.
Safe trips to all.
Condolences to the connections of Mor Spirit after succumbing to colic after leaving quarantine in Korea.
This is disturbing another US stallion dying in Korea.
So sorry to hear that. Thanks for posting, Lynda.
I just learned I could find you here Steve! I’m so glad, and my brother will be also. Thank, and keep up the great work.
Thanks so much JG. Been here 5 years, so happy you both found me.
When I first heard Matt Dinerman reporting that Oaklawn track was closed the last week of January for gallops and breezes I did not think much about it. However, now, I feel like that disruption affects the handicapping of the Southwest Stakes… 8 or 9 days without normal training could very well hinder the current form of Oaklawn-based horses.
My assumption that shippers who had uninterrupted training elsewhere (i.e. Fair Grounds, Santa Anita) have a real edge in tomorrow’s one-million Stakes does not seem far-fetched at all.
With that angle in mind I am leaning towards the following $40-Superfecta bet:
3-Buetane/13-Soldier N Diplomat
3-Buetane/13-Soldier N Diplomat
4-Rancho Santa Fe/7-Liberty National/9-Strategic Risk/11-Silent Tactic
2-D’code/4-Rancho Santa Fe/7-Liberty National/9-Strategic Risk/11-Silent Tactic
The track is fast today and I expect to be playing faster tomorrow benefitting the speedsters…
Good luck and safe trips to every one.
Hi Nelson
You’ve provided an interesting take on the interrupted gallops and breezes at Oaklawn last week. I’ll go with your initial reaction, when you stated that you didn’t think too much about it. Buetane’s last work was on Jan. 25th, and will be shipping across the country, which is a concern, IMO. D’Code’s last work was on Jan. 23rd, over the Oaklawn track. That’s just a two-day difference. Soldier N Diplomat’s last work was on Jan. 24th at the Fair Grounds. Strategic Risk’s last work was on Jan. 21st. over the Oaklawn track. That’s just a 3-day difference. From my perspective, D’Code and Strategic Risk have the advantage here, because their respective works were at Oaklawn Park. When comparing the dates of their last works, two or three days is no big deal, IMO. That said, I’ll stick with D’Code as the likely winner of the Southwest with Strategic Risk picking up place money.
My $1.00 superfecta wagers will be as follows.
2,9/2,9// 3,4,7,13/ 3,4,7,13
I’ll flip that over and play an additional super which will be as follows.
3,4,7,13/ 2,9/ 2,9/ 3,4,7,13
I have a $20.00 win ticket on Rancho Santa Fe in Futures Pool 2, so I wouldn’t mind if he managed to spring an upset in the Southwest Stakes.
Good luck, Nelson.
Safe trips to all.
Edit; I just had an idea, just for the hell of it, I’ll box your two picks with my two picks, in a $1.00 superfecta wager.
That is: 2-3-9-13. If Soldier N Diplomat pulls off the win, the super payout should be decent. What say you, Nelson?
Thanks for your reply Bill… Buetane’s last workout was on February 1st … 47.80 (8/87) at Santa Anita.
The concern is not about the last workouts but the fact that horses could not even go for gallops at Oaklawn afterwards… it is said that some used treadmills and gallop in the shed rows ? but that could be insufficient at the highest level of competition…
Anyway, I tried to test the assumption today in the Fifth Season S and the only Fair Grounds horse won over the OP based rivals with favorite Speed King finishing 4th of 5.
Perhaps I am overthinking the whole situation but being right could pay off sweetly…
Good luck in all your bets Bill !
Nelson
I stand corrected. The past performance sheet that I have does not list that latest work on Feb. 1st.
Best of luck to you as well, Nelson.
Nelson, I like your angle here. Would have liked the last workout by Buetane to have been more around Feb 3rd but couldn’t be done because of travel. Going around 1st turn hope he is not closer than 5 lengths from the leader.
Good Luck here. Should be a good race.
Enjoyed your your interview on Past The Wire on YouTube.
Thanks!
👍
Most fascinating decision of the week is whether ro run The Puma in maiden race at GP or the Sam. F Davis. This colt imo had the best loss of the year when 2nd to Chief Wallabee after getting left at the gate, rushed to the lead and got caught by a very talented colt, finishing 9 lengths ahead of the 3rd horse. And he is. Bred for stamina. Interesting to see where they run him. Looks very talented.
I would take the same route they took with Mage … i.e. breaking the maiden before running in the FoY and then the Florida Derby.
His trainer Gustavo Delgado has a knack to get Derby tickets via Florida Derby (Majesto, Bodexpress, Mage) … it his “home adavantage” of sort …
I am not sure what the idea is behind going to Tampa… perhaps they are assessing how easy getting it is to get those early 20 points against the likes of Confessional, Renegade, Ocelli and Dr. Kapur…
Checking for odds movements before Friday and Saturday’s Derby prep races.
So far, Plutarch moved from 45-1 to 30-1…
Finally, the official entries for the Sam F. Davis Stakes have been released.
1) Confessional
2) Epic Desire
3) The Puma
4) Game for It
5) Ocelli
6) Renegade
7) Wayne’s Law
8) Max Capacity
9) Dr. Kapur
Bill, do you an opinion yet? I had high hopes for Dr Kapur last year, but I think he’s a sprinter.
Hi Ms Blacktype
Looking at the Sam F. Davis field, it should be just a walk in the park for Renegade.
I had high hopes for Dr. Kapur early on and boxed him with Plutarch in Derby Futures Pool 1. Plutarch was listed at 76-1 and Dr. Kapur was listed at 52-1. So, I thought an exacta wager, ($8.00) was worth the risk.
Dr. Kapur looked impressive in his maiden win, but ran out of gas, at 3/4 pole, in the Kentucky Jockey Club, back in November. Further Ado was clearly the best in the KJC. Based on how Dr. Kapur ran in the KJC, you’re probably right, he appears to be a sprinter/middle distance type. As for Plutarch, he continues to be a major player on the Derby trail, IMO.
Getting back to Dr. Kapur for a moment, he does a few attributes going for him.
He’s homebred (The Ramseys), bred from the Mr. Prospector/Northern Dancer cross and he’s in the capable hands of trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. The fact that his connections decided to run him in the Sam Davis leads me to believe they expect more from their McKinzie colt. We’ll see.
Nice analysis, Bill. I plan to watch all of these preps without trying to figure out who’s going to win. Just hope someone wows me!
Thanks, Ms Blacktype
My picks in the upcoming Derby prep races.
Robert B. Lewis, Plutarch
Southwest, D’Code (upset pick, Rancho Santa Fe, at 15-1)
Sam F. Davis, Renegade, (upset pick, Dr. Kapur, odds unavailable)
BTW, I have no interest in the Weathers Stakes, at Aqueduct.
Enjoy watching the races.
You too!
Just went over the recently announced Triple Crown nominations. (It was a great way to cull my watch list.) Some surprising omissions: Satano Voyage, who is pointing to the Saudi Derby, is not Triple Crown nominated. Neither are Big Dom, It’s Our Time, Spice Runner, and Stradale. Late nominations (deadline is April 6) are always a possibility.
The Lewis came up interesting….Bob’s Brigade vs Secured Freedom (Yakteen) and Intrepido (Mullins), Bob put some nice horses, in there….I recall Intrepido getting a left hand whip and taking off, vs Desert Gate and Plutarch, so I will be focusing on him….
My Derby Dozen will be listed bi-weekly. I fully expect the usual dropouts and additions along the Derby Trail. That’s what makes doing a list so challenging, but fun.
Derby Dew’s Dozen
Paladin
Nearly
Napoleon Solo
Plutarch
Commandment
Class President
Renegade
Desert Gate
Canaletto
Strategic Risk
Blackout Time
Chief Wallabee
Dewey, we have similar lists, but my list will include Further Ado, Golden Tempo, So Happy, Potente and Solitude Dude. The upcoming Derby prep races should provide a clearer picture on top Derby prospects moving forward.
My current Derby Dozen are as follows.
Paladin
Further Ado
Plutarch
So Happy
Golden Tempo
Solitude Dude
Commandment
Renegade
Litmus Test
Potente
Brant
Nearly
Note: my list is not necessarily in preferential order.
Some interesting horses, a mix of recent winners and some stakes winners returning, they, 5 or 6 of them, will be in action in the next two weeks.
Excellent list Dewey. Excited to see Paladins upcoming race next weekend in the Risen Star. Nice to see that you have Class President rated highly on your list. Would love CP to run in the TB Derby to take a swing at one of those 50 point preps before the waters get deeper in the APR 100 point preps.
Thanks, Joe.
If Nearly skips the FOY and points to the Fla Derby, then I think Todd starts CP in the FOY. We’ll see how it plays out. Then, again, as you say, there’s always the TB Derby. Paladin is in prime condition for the Risen Star. Anxious to see him run again.
The official entries for the Sam F. Davis have yet to be posted. Why the delay? The weather could be the reason. Last I heard, Paladin is scheduled to run, but the other entries in the SFD remain unclear. If there’s anyone out there that can provide the current status of the race, I’d appreciate hearing from you.
Thanks.
Bill, I thought that Paladin was pointing toward the Risen Star?
Steve mentioned the Risen Star, but I’ve seen other reports stating he’s pointed to the SFD, at Tampa Bay. I guess we won’t know until the official SFD entries are posted on Equibase. Stay tuned.
I hope it’s the Risen Star. I don’t like the track at Tampa. Like Steve says, “it’s a quirky surface”. The entries for the Sam Davis should be out today. Weather for Saturday is calling for sunny skies and a high of 68.
That’s good news on the weather report. BTW, we have to suffer through 90-degree weather here in San Diego. 🙂
Whew, that becomes uncomfortable for both man and beast. It’s a chilly 27 degrees here in Lexington. BTW, what’ s the forecast for Super Bowl Sunday?
It should be around 65 degrees at the start of the game.
Speaking of the Super Bowl, I was shocked to see that the Seahawks are only favored by 4.5 points. I thought the odds would be around 7.5 to 8 points. Bet the farm on the Seahawks -4.5. Enjoy the Super Bowl.
Dewey, Patriots takes it Sunday.
Thats what I was told by the connections. . .maybe they want to keep chasing Renegade
Thanks for the input, Steve.
Speaking of Renegade, I’m sure you noticed how closely he’s related to Plutarch. Both were sired by Into Mischief and both of their dams were sired by Curlin. Looking at the sires of their respective 2nd dams, I would give the edge to Renegade (Bernardini) over Plutarch (Malibu Moon). However, Plutarch makes up for that with the better dam, Stellar Wind vs Spice Is Nice, IMO. Bottom line, with respect to class and stamina influence, I believe it’s a wash. Needless to say, both colts are well bred for the Classic distance.
Many thanks for all you do, week after week.
You’re right, Paladin was not entered in the Sam Davis Stakes. The entries were just posted.
Ragozin Figure is out for Nearly the Holy Bull
9+ for Nearly in Holy Bull versus 7+ in Allowance Win
The lower the number, the better. So they are saying the Holy Bull. Ragozin incorporates Pace and Ground Loss into their number. Overall, they are more accurate than Beyer and Brisnet.
Nearly received a Brisnet number of 99 and a Beyer of 98. Brisnet numbers are higher than Beyer numbers in 13 of 15 points races by an average of about 4. Overall, Beyer rates this race higher than Brisnet.
Beyer made some adjustments; Brisnet is more automated, but I find it more accurate when accounting for race shape.
Personally, I don’t like any 100-plus numbers until March and April; it’s too fast, too soon.
Steve will hopefully report the Thorograph for Nearly next week.
Beyer numbers are subjective. Brisnet is slightly better. Thorp graph and Ragozin account for more variables.
At major tracks…Beyer’s are pretty reliable….but I agree, Ragozin and Thoro graph account for more variables
Steve, all I can say is “WOW” on another in DEPTH analysis! Your top 15 and 40 in Knocking on the door. Your the best medicine for my TDS affliction. Total Derby Syndrome!
The come home time that Nearly gave us was slow and in a normal year it would be a detriment to his chances in the Derby. However, the horses do not run as much as in the past. This gives us, handicappers, less of a body of work to go by. I haven’t seen another horse do better yet. Not sure my Derby horse has even run yet this year. Time will tell.
Not the slightest concerned regarding his come home time. Knowing what my eyes tell me……… he’s impressive.
It bothers me. Ha.
Napoleon Solo is my guy for KY Derby 2026. When I saw how he absolutely dominated last year’s Champagne Stakes in front running fashion with the jockey wearing those black and yellowish silks, it reminded me of one of the greatest all-time nearly fifty years ago… Yep, Seattle Slew. Definitely looking forward to his 3YO/2-turn debut for sure.
Nearly is the other horse who intrigues me. With Ted Noffey out, this guy is Todd Pletcher’s top KY Derby prospect. Yeah, his final quarter in the Holy Bull was not the fastest, perhaps we haven’t seen his best yet. Let’s see how he does as the prep races get longer; Based on the bottom half of his pedigree with AP Indy and Summer Squall prominent well within the first five generations, Nearly Nearly should relish the mile and a quarter.
It’s way early, and I love talking horses going into the Triple Crown…..this site is #1 with a bullet, I appreciate all of the Nearly chatter, he really has no set style, he settled and closed, his first two wins, and Saturday he was right on the pace from the get-go…..what we DO know is: Nearly has an efficient, balanced way of going, and his rider knows the sort of trip a horse needs,, for victory….the kind of horse that makes his own luck…his own trip—like Chrome—-I remember people saying Chrome always got good trips—good ones can do that….
I’ve no concern with the dramatic slow down, of Nearly…because he pushed rapid splits! Horses like Nearly are chased by horses who tire, from their efforts, a lot like Skip Away…1:09 3/5 fraction, clear win, with slower finishes….maybe Cougar or Forego could make a late run, but everyone else is chasing and tiring….a horse that can go fast and still hold a big lead—that is a good horse, RACE FLOW—favors closers and yet look who won for fun….a good horse runs against type, and Nearly is a good horse…..
Matthew W, am in agreement with you about Nearly
With the recent announcement that Litmus Test will not run in the Southwest, I would think that Strategic Risk, or Buetane will be the post time favorite. Strategic Risk looked mighty impressive in his Smarty Jones win over the Oaklawn Park track last out. If he can replicate that same performance in Southwest, he’ll be tough to beat. Buetane has yet to be tested around two turns, and shipping in from the West coast is always a concern. That said, I remain convinced that D’Code could be a monster in the making. Obviously, he’s yet to be tested for class and distance, but the way he won his first out maiden win was over the top. He probably inherited his impressive speed from his sire, Speightstown. His dam side reflects plenty of class and stamina influence with the likes of Candy Ride in his 3rd generation. For those of us that give credence to the X-Factor large heart gene concept, D’Code’s dam sire, Twirling Candy, tracks back to Chester House/El Gran Senor/Buckpasser and War Admiral, a noted carrier of the large heart gene. The fact that D’Code is a Tom Durant homebred adds to the luster of his impressive breeding, IMO.
That said, I’ll go with D’Code as the likely winner of the Southwest Stakes.
Well reasoned, Bill. Hope he isn’t the post time favorite for your sake. I don’t think Buetane will be favored, and others may have doubts about Strategic Risk, who I think is the best horse in the race. I hope D’Code runs to his potential.
Thanks for the reply, Ms Blacktype
Recently, I read an interesting article on the X-Factor large heart gene by renowned pedigree analyst Laurie Ross. She mentioned that Golden Tempo was a likely carrier of the gene, which could explain his powerful closing kick that he has exhibited in both career starts. As I mentioned earlier, I believe D’Code “could” be a carrier of the large heart gene as well. Needless to say, both of these are very high on my Derby Watch List.
BTW, there are several other colts on this year’s Derby trail that “could” be carriers of the large heart gene, namely, Commandment, So Happy, Further Ado, Paladin, Soldier N Diplomat, Englishman, Iron Honor, Courting, Into the Beast and Mr. A.P.
Good to see you again Bill….I always enjoy what you have to say. 🙂
Thanks, Gerard, I appreciate that.
Guess you can take Litmus Test off the list – no explanation as to his scratch (did Bob miss another flight?) Could it have been something that happened in the 5f work on the 31st, when he couldn’t get past Desert Gate as the both flattened out for the wire?
Inquiring minds want to know …
I believe its all in the column. Scratched from where, never intended to run at Oaklawn snd wasnt entered at SA so he couldn’t hsve been scratched.
Steve, your information is spot on. The horse was “entered” in the Southwest Stakes, but BB decided against it.
Oaklawn’s track announcer Matt Dinerman reported on X that the horse is scratched.
Not much separates Paladin and Renegade; we will see Renegade in the Sam F Davis and Paladin in the Risen Star.
The fast maidens are fun, but not sure if Englishman, Thunderously, or Chief Wallabee are even pointing to Derby preps in their next start.
Incredibolt ran a clunker, and you have to throw it out, but in recent years, not many horses have thrown in a complete clunker and rebounded back quickly. I’m wondering if he bled.🌹
All good points about the one start maiden winners. Can’t take them too seriously right now. I thought Incredibolt ran too badly ro just blame it on the track.
I get the reservations on Nearly because he came home slow. However, he ran to his race set up which took him out of his preferred style. If he doesn’t press the pace of the lone speed, Cannoneer, who else was gonna do it? Credit for doing the dirty job no other horse in the race could handle.
Now Todd has 2 months to put some stamina in him. He’ll be fine.
I agree – it took real class to hold off all comers after putting Cannoneer away and a half in :45
Sovereignty, he has alot of upside.
What is his preferred style? He had never been 2 turns so I don’t know yet what it is.
I definitely don’t think he really wants to battle on the lead based on Jonny V’s comments after the race:
“I thought it was going to be a two-horse race but I didn’t think my horse would be that close. He got a little aggressive today. He was never like that,” Velasquez said, “Normally, it takes him a bit to get his legs under him but today he was there right away. “
I think Universe will be a force to reckon with. Rosario’s ride on him could have been better last out, good rider change.
Hi Steve
Thank you for providing another thorough analysis on your Derby prospects. The time and effort you put into these Weekly Rankings is nothing short of amazing.
I’m looking forward to the Southwest Stakes, just to see if D’Code can carry his impressive speed, going 8.5 furlongs.
In Derby Futures Pool 1, I keyed Plutarch, (76-1), on top of Brant, (14-1), Further Ado, (21-1), Intrepido, (34-1) and Dr. Kapur, (52-1) in a $4.00 dollar Exacta wager. Needless to say, I’ll be watching the Robert B. Lewis with great interest and was delighted to see that you have Plutarch ranked at #9 on this Week’s Derby Rankings.
Thanks again, Steve, your hard work is much appreciated.
Steve
In addition to my exacta wager on Plutarch, I have a $40.00 win wager on him at 76-1, in Pool 1.
Thank you Bill. And good luck. You hsve plenty of action going.
Such a good column, Steve, especially after the week we just had. It’s ridiculously early, we lost Ted Noffey, and two graded stakes for 3YOs didn’t come off over the weekend. I went through my personal watch list and counted 25 horses that are expected to run this weekend or next. I think you touched on them all, adding depth and perspective that my cribbed notes barely reflect. I’ll have to look up Jackson Hole — I saw his last race but had no idea he had four crosses of Dr. Fager in his pedigree. He’s also by Nyquist, my hunch bet for this year’s sire of the Derby winner. His dam is by Bernardini as well, so that’s several extra dollops of gravy.
Thanks Ms B. These horses have a lot of sorting out to do.
They do. I must congratulate you on finding the four crosses of Dr. F. I had to hunt pretty hard for them but eventually found all four daughters six and seven generations back.
Steve,
Great job this week on your evaluation of the horses and have no qualms on your rankings. This is just a mystery bunch so far and it looks like a lot of trainers are just using 2 prep races for their horses before the KD than the usual 3 to 4. If your sources are correct and Litmus Test is skipping the Southwest Stakes I am sort of glad as I was not really crazy about his works. As I said earlier I am on the fence with him. Would love to see Buetane sit about midpack to last at the beginning of the SWS and come with a rush at the end. We’ll see what Joel R does with him. Cautious confidence with him. As far as Incredibolt ‘s run in the Holy Bull it truly was a head scratcher as he looked so good warming up and in the post parade. At first, I thought he was given a poor ride but changed my mind on that after watching the race again the next day. I am hoping he just did not like the track. GP surface is a lot different than CD. I would take him to Oaklawn and run him in the Rebel and if he doesn’t run well there he can always go to the Blue Grass at Keeneland. I just hope nothing is wrong with him
On another note I will be going to Los Angeles this Friday and going to Santa Anita on Saturday so I will get an on track look at the Robert Lewis and will give my take on that next week.
As always have a great week and if you haven’t had a chance take a look at Cornucopia comeback race last Saturday at Santa Anita it is a doozy !!!
Have a good time and enjoy the Lewis. It could help clear up the picture a little. I hope whoever wins is impressive.
Mr. Haskin, thanks! Among a couple horses I like so far, Chief Wallabee is intriguing. What race could he point to?
Bill not committing to anything. He is way behind and hes not going to rush him.
Thank You!
I love that horse, too! Steve’s reply is interesting … it’s only real early in February, so the Chief could still run in late March and make the Derby.
As we know Mott always does what’s best for the horse. Hopefully, CW will be up to the task.
Hello Steve – Glad you promoted Paladin to #1. He’s training well and should be sitting on go for the Risen Star ⭐️ In a couple of weeks. Glad to have bet him at 22-1 in KDFW2. Also glad that you vaulted Class President to #10. CP chased from the Rail and was second best and striding out beautifully to and past the wire with a good gallop out. I’d love to see him run next In the TB Derby to keep him In FLA. Very excited to have bet Class President at 50-1 in KDFW3.
Hey Joe, I also bet Paladin @ 22-1 in Pool 2. I was impressed with his mature run in the Remsen and he is my No. 1 choice at this point.
I have Class President in my stable mail and agree with Steve that he will relish the longer distances. I missed the opportunity to bet him @ 50-1 in Pool 3 as I was distracted by a social gathering. Uggh!!!! My bad. Good luck with your future bets.
Dewey:
If you can get to Las Vegas (or send someone there), Class President is currently 90-1 at William Hill. His odds increased after last race, but I agree with Steve that next start at a distance should be a good one…
Geez, biggy! Me, send someone to Vegas? What am I, the Godfather or what? lol. 90-1 is enticing, but I think I’ll wait for Pool 4 to get some action. I do think that CP’s odds will remain decent. Not many are giving him much credit for his Holy Bull effort, or so it seems.
Dewey Carleone Hebert…. Has a nice ring to it. I’m sure you can make a deal someone couldn’t resist!!! LOL
I was gonna have Fredo place the bet in Vegas, but he sleeps with the fishes.
Lol
Good luck on your KDFW2 bet with Paladin Dewey, he looks like a good one. Hopefully he fires a big shot in the Risen Star. I bet Paladin to win and boxed him with All Others which could easily reach 16 horses by derby day.
Smart bet with the exactas Joe. You could have many live tickets with Paladin in the mix. Good luck!