2026 Kentucky Derby Rankings – Week 4
With four stakes this past week, there naturally was a good deal of movement in the Rankings following several impressive performances, not only by the winners, but the beaten horses as well. We also have the first 50-point prep coming up this Saturday when the No. 1 ranked horse Paladin makes his 3-year-old debut. With the Derby picture becoming more and more wide-open, don’t discount some of the horses discussed in Knocking on the Door. There isn’t much separating those horses from the ones in the top 15. ~ Steve Haskin
Derby Rankings: February 9, 2026 – Week 4
By Steve Haskin
1. Paladin (Chad Brown, Gun Runner — Secret Sigh, by Tapit)
I am relaying a personal message from Paladin to his arch rival Renegade. “Thank you for justifying my No. 1 ranking by winning the Sam F. Davis Stakes in dominant fashion and proving that our battles last year were not a fluke and we are major Derby contenders. And now I have to go out next week and justify it myself by running a big race in the Risen Star Stakes, the first 50-point prep on the Derby trail.” Paladin will be facing the winners of the first two Fair Grounds preps, Gun Runner Stakes victor Chip Honcho and LeComte winner Golden Tempo, as well as Renegade’s wildly expensive stablemate Courting, a $5 milliion yearling purchase who is looking to improve on his fourth-place finish behind Paladin and Renegade in the Remsen Stakes. Paladin, as we know, inherited the top spot when Ted Noffey was sidelined with bone bruising, and now that the pressure has been ramped up with the recent victories by Renegade, Plutarch, and Silent Critic, it is up to Paladin to show that he belongs on top, as he follows the same path as his illustrious Chad Brown/Coolmore predecessor Sierra Leone. We already know he has all the tools, will run all day, has the right running style, and should appreciate the long Fair Grounds stretch. And we now know that his main competition from last year is worthy of a high ranking hinmself. A victory next week should keep him at No. 1 for a while. A defeat and we’re back to a crapshoot.
2. Nearly (Todd Pletcher, Not This Time — Ib Prospector, by Mineshaft)
He is approriately named, as he nearly reached No. 1, but we decided to give Paladin, a proven Grade 2 winner at 1 1/8 miles, first dibs at claiming that honor, due in part to his 3-year-old debut coming up this weekend and he has been first in line since Week 1. So although Nearly probably did enough in his Holy Bull victory to top most everyone’s list, let’s just give Paladin the opportunity to change people’s minds. Last week we stated that our only question with Nearly was his agonizingly slow closing fractions. Although I still have to take notice of that, I can overlook it for now and his Thoro-Graph regression from a “1” to a “5” and focus more on the positive visual aspects of the race. Centennial Farm has devoted a lot of time and money looking for top quality horses, and they have been involved in some historic races. When their Colonial Affair won the 1993 Belmont Stakes his rider Julie Krone became the first female jockey to win a Classic. In 2007, they won the first ever Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile with Corinthian. In 2014, their Wood Memorial and Jim Dandy winner Wicked Strong looked like a sure winner of the Travers as he drew away from the field inside the eighth pole only to be nosed out on the wire by his 19-1 stablemate V.E. Day. That also was a first. They have now found a home with Todd Pletcher, and after winning The Jockey Club Gold Cup last year with Antiquarian, who got lost in Pletcher’s loaded stable of older horses that included Fierceness, Mindframe, and Locked, they have the opportunity after Ted Noffey’s injury to give Pletcher his best shot at the Kentucky Derby if Nearly can continue his winning ways in the Florida Derby.
3. Renegade (Todd Pletcher, Into Mischief — Spice is Nice, by Curlin)
Speaking of Pletcher, he sure has rebounded since losing Ted Noffey, winning the Holy Bull Stakes and Sam F. Davis Stakes the following two weekends. As we mentioned earlier, Renegade’s emphatic victory in the Sam Davis solidifdied his and Paladin’s places on the list of leading Kentucky Derby contenders. And you could not have written a better script, as he made a big sweeping move from eighth with a scintillating :23 3/5 third quarter, followed by a :24 1/5 quarter, and then came home shading :06 (:05.97 to be exact) for the final sixteenth while drawing off to 3 3/4-length victory. Earlier on the card, his highly regarded stablemate, the undefeated filly Zany ran her mile in the mile and 40-yard Suncoast Stakes in 1:38 1/5, while he ran his mile in 1:37 2/5. And don’t be surprised to see Zany hit the Derby trail, as you will read down below. What I loved most about his race was the way he quickly picked off horses with a four-wide move on the turn, showing a much better turn of foot than he showed in the Remsen. And unlike that race he switched leads right on cue this time and just kept getting stronger with every stride. His action was flawless and he ran straight other than drifting out slightly after being hit left-handed while already well clear of the field, This was as professional an effort and as strong a transition from 2 to 3 as you could hope to see. His pedigree is loaded with stamina and his already improving Thoro-Graph pattern is likely to keep improving. Paladin has his work cut for him to top this, but we have to remember he will be facing a much more accomplished field and will be debuting at a longer and tougher distance. It should be interesting to see how both colts compare after Saturday.
4. Litmus Test (Bob Baffert, Nyquist — Study Hard, by Malibu Moon)
Bubble wrap horses always make things difficult when they have questions to answer but remain spectators until March while others keep rolling along. What makes his situation a bit more unusual is that Baffert entered him in the Southwest Stakes and kept him in the entries after the race was postponed a week, only scratching several days before the race. He even briefly toyed with running him in this past Saturday’s Robert Lewis Stakes, but decided to put him back in bubble wrap and wait for the March 7 San Felipe Stakes, which appeared to be his original target. I could easily have replaced him at No. 4 with several horses, including his own stablemate Plutarch, but I lean toward stability and try to avoid knee-jerk reactions, and he has always been Baffert’s main Derby hope. That’s not to say he is going to remain at No. 4 until March 7. I can easily make a case for those new shooters directly below him. He did work a half in :48 2/5 this week, the second fastest of 31 works at the distance. But what a wild work it was, as he had three workmates, one on the lead and the other two inside and outside him. He moved up between horses and they were four across the track turning for home. Then the lead horse got loose and Litmus Test was asked a little more and caught his workmate to finish a half-length in front before galloping out far alead of all of them. I have no idea where he is right now and am not even going to speculate. We’ll just sit tight for the next few weeks and see what other developments there are.
5. Silent Tactic (Mark Casse, Tacitus — Magical Sign, by Gun Runner)
This colt has so much going for him after his powerful Southwest Stakes victory, the sky’s the limit when in it comes to being a serious Derby contender. Rather than go over all his attributes and his background again, I will refer you to my January 11 column prior to the first Rankings, in which I featured him as one of three potential Derby horses to keep an eye on. All the background info on him is there. Why he wasn’t among the 39 horses listed in the Future Wager field is beyond me. But right now, everyone would love to have him. One of the three featured horses in the column was his stablemate Strategic Risk, who for some reason, came up empty in the Southwest and we have to drop him. Mark Casse attributed it to just a bad day. You never know what direction a horse will go on the Derby trail. But we sure know with Silent Tactic. He had shown in the Smarty Jones he had a bright future when he was the only horse closing at the end, finishing second to Strategic Risk despite an extremely slow pace. And he was making his first start on dirt. In the Southwest, the pace was much quicker, and he was able to sit at the back of field, but still in striking range. I like the way he started picking off horses on the turn on his own without being asked. Then it looked as if jockey Cristian Torres at first was going to try to weave his way through the field, but changed his mind when he saw the traffic jam in front of him and steered him to the outside, circling the field some seven-wide. In the stretch he just kept pouring it on and blew past the leaders inside the sixteenth pole before drawing clear to win by 3 1/4 lengths. I’m not sure how fast these horses are, but he was the best of what looked to be a solid field behind him. His grandsires are Tapit and Gun Runner and he is inbred to A.P. Indy and Unbridled, and Seattle Slew three times. Enough said there. What a fitting horse for owner John Oxley to have on the Derby trail on the 25th anniversary of his near-record victory with Monarchos.
6. Plutarch (Bob Baffert, Into Mischief — Stellar Wind, by Curlin)
I am unashamedly quoting myself, because what I wrote back on December 11 still applies: “This colt has seen it all. He can run close up or far back, he has a big turn of foot on grass or dirt, can make up a lot of ground quickly, and he has a powerful stretch run. And his pedigree is pure royalty. This could very well be Baffert’s big sleeper.” I mention this because he actually added another attribute in winning the Robert Lewis Stakes and has been hinting at what was to come with his versatility, his ability to adapt to any distance, running style, and competition. He is a perfect example of studying the visuals and not relying just on the fact that it took him five races to break his maiden, and on the grass. It’s as if you never see the same horse twice. By winning the Lewis the way he did, he has now won or finished in the money by sitting two lengths off the pace in the Grade 1 American Pharoah and finishing a game third, beaten only three-quarters of a length; making a spectacular seventh-to-first move to break his maiden; rallying from sixth at the eighth-pole to finish third in a listed stakes; closing from 13th at the head of the stretch to finish second in the Del Mar Juvenile Turf; and now battling for the lead between horses and then outrunning Grade 1 winner Intrepido to win the Lewis by three-quarters of a length. And he’s done it with five different jockeys in six starts. If you want to know where his toughness and fight comes from just watch his dam Stellar Wind outgame Hall of Famer Beholder in the Clement Hirsch Stakes and Zenyatta Stakes. I have no idea what his tactics will be the next time he runs, but wherever he is running — in front, just off the pace, or far back — I am confident he’s going to do whatever he has to in order to be right there at the finish.
7. Commandment (Brad Cox, Into Mischief — Sippican Harbor, by Orb)
He remains one of the most difficult horses on which to get a good line. From a visual standpoint, his stretch runs have been extremely impressive as he continues to build up speed and overpowers his oppontents in the final furloing. His stride lengthens the farther he goes and he has no trouble drawing off from his opponents with relative ease. The one question that still is unanswered is the quality of those opponents. Mucho Macho Man runner-up Roger that Dana had finished third, beaten 10 1/4 lengths by Strategic Risk, in the In Reality. Tagermeen, who he defeated by 5 1/4 lengths in a maiden race, had previously finished third, beaten 7 1/4 lengths by the brilliant first-time starter Englishman, and before that he finished fourth, beaten 4 1/2 lengths by Ted Noffey. So we really don’t know what Commandment has beaten. Those could be nice horses, but their resume is inconclusive. In addition, Commandment’s Thoro-Graph and Brisnet speed figures have shown good steady improvement, but we really don’t know yet how fast he actually is. His three- and four-point jumps to a “5 1/2” give him a good launch pad from which to keep moving up. He will get his chance to keep elevating his status when he faces far better horses in the Fountain of Youth Stakes. But with Ted Noffey gone, Nearly waiting for the Florida Derby, and Renegade having just run, we have no idea which serious Derby hopefuls will show up for that race. So far I’ve been impressed with what I’ve seen and we’ll just have to wait to see if he can duplicate those powerful stretch runs.
8. Napoleon Solo (Chad Summers, Liam’s Map — Atomic Blonde, by Scat Daddy)
I like the way his works are picking up, especially his recent half-mile drill in :48 flat. Until Summers decides where his first race will be, there is little left to be said about him that hasn’t been said. To sum up his status right now in four words — freak or no freak? There is no doubting his Champagne victory was freakish and if that was really him and he can come close to duplicating that race, especially going two turns, then we could be dealing with something special. It is difficult when you have a horse with that kind of speed going a flat mile at Aqueduct and the visuals to go along with it, and then have him sidelined, going on four months, and not knowing how he is going to come back. Also, Summers has mentioned the Gotham, another one-turn mile, and the Fountain of Youth, both on March 1, as potential targets. There are two ways of looking at that. We know the Gotham already is in his wheelhouse and he would be expected to again run his opponents into the ground, but still needing to prove he can handle two turns with the same brilliance. He would also have to travel up to New York and then likely go for his one make-or-break race in the Wood Memorial. The Fountain of Youth would no doubt favor his speed with that short stretch and provide that vital two-turn experience to decide whether he should continue on the Derby trail or look more toward the Pat Day Mile. Both races have their merits in their own way. In short, the question is whether or not he is a Derby horse. It will be up to Summers to figure out the best way to answer that.
9. Further Ado (Brad Cox, Gun Runner — Sky Dreamer, by Sky Mesa)
If his works at Payson Park are any indication of what we’re going to see in the Tampa Bay Derby, then we can expect him to make a major and immediate impact on the Derby trail. This colt has a great deal of upside based on his last two races, and the only reason he isn’t ranked higher is because we still have to wait a month before we see him run, and when they’re out for that long for whatever reason and don’t work for two months you never know how they will return and what the Derby trail is going to look like when they do. And there is only so much you can keep writing about him for that long, especially with so many others trying to claim those top slots. That is why he and Napoleon Solo are in a similar situation, but we’ll know more about the latter a week earlier. Further Ado has had three works now over the deeper Payson Park surface and his bullet :49 flat drill on February 7 was the fastest of 56 works at the distance. That strongly suggests he is coming around quickly and getting sharp. It also strongly suggests he is ready to make his presence felt first time out, and it is only a matter of time before he finds himself right up near the top of the list of Derby favorites. But just to repeat, his ninth-place ranking is not based on his talent. Like with his works, just take it slow for a while, keeping him sharp, and then make your big push by stepping up his training when his debut gets closer. So we also are just biding our time, as he is, and then start getting excited a week before the Tampa Derby.
10. Golden Tempo (Cherie DeVaux, Curlin — Carrumba, by Bernardini)
He had a solid :48 4/5 half-mile sharpener for Saturday’s important Risen Star Stakes, the first 50-point prep of the season. If one can really know anything after only two lifetime starts, we know this colt has a dynamite closing kick and can come from as far back as ninth and 10th at the head of the stretch and still mow you down. What makes the Risen Star so important is that unlike the LeComte, when he outran his stablemate Mesquite and Carson Street, he will be up against a $1.9 million yearling and a $5 million yearling, both from powerful barns and both with high expectations. We are talking about the No. 1-ranked horse Paladin, and Courting, who trainer Todd Pletcher feels is much better than his races might indicate, especially his fourth-place-finish in the Remsen behind Paladin. If Golden Tempo can be as competitive against those two and several others with ability then we can look at him as a horse to take seriously on the first Saturday in May, especially with his pedigree that is inundated with class and stamina influences. His sire and maternal grandsire were both Preakness and Jockey Club Gold Cup winners, with one winning the Breeders’ Cup Classic and the other finishing second in the Classic to a Hall of Famer. His dam traces to a line of Phipps family horses going back to the Riva Ridge filly Blitey, dam of three Grade 1 winners, and her dam, champion 3-year-old filly Lady Pitt, winner of the Coaching Club American Oaks, Mother Goose, and Delaware Oaks. He has all the qualifications needed to be a top-class colt, and this is the time to show it.
11. Soldier N Diplomat (Steve Asmussen, Army Mule — Diplomatic Miss, by Violence)
Sometimes you see a horse and even though he just got beat by 3 1/4 lengths and is by an unproven stallion you have enough admiration for him to consider him a serious Derby horse who is still improving. You believe he has shown you enough to be convinced he is always going to be in the fight regardless of the competition. In the Southwest Stakes, his first start in more than two months, he broke from the disadvantageous 11 post, was caught four wide into the first turn and raced wide every step of the race. He made his move, still widest of all, and engaged the two favorites, D’code and Buetane, in a three-horse battle. He put D’code away inside the eighth pole and then outgamed Buetane, on his inside, and Rancho Santa Fe, on his outside, to the wire in a three-horse photo. Unfortunately, Silent Tactic, coming off a big second in the Smarty Jones Stakes, rallied late to run by all of them. I couldn’t help but think back to the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, when Soldier N Diplomat pressed a fast early pace and then gave the 3-5 favorite Further Ado quite a scare, battling eyeball-to-eyeball with him from the quarter pole to inside the sixteenth pole before getting beat 1 3/4 lengths by a horse who had won his previous start by 20 lengths. Just so you don’t get the impression he’s only a gutsy fighter who keeps getting beat, he broke his maiden the race before the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes by nine lengths going a flat mile at Churchill Downs. After working in :10 flat at the Ocala 2-year-old, he impressed the St. Elias team so much they paid a whopping $950,000 for him. Monique Delk, who heads their search team, said he had such a great mind and regal air about him they felt he had a big chance to be special. Carrie Brogden of Machmer Hall, who bred the colt, as they did Litmus Test, said he always exuded class and received rave reviews from the moment he stepped on the track. Those words were echoed by trainer Steve Asmussen. That’s all good enough for me.
12. Blackout Time (Kenny McPeek, Not This Time — Beauty Parlor, by Elusive Quality)
He is another who is taking his time getting back to the races, and, like the others, all we can do is wait and speculate that he is as good as he looked at 2 and will return in top class form when he debuts in the March 1 Rebel Stakes. I do like that he is up to five-eighths in his works and his last work in 1:00 4/5 suggests he rounding into form quickly. You still have to wonder how he would have done had he not been a vet scratch prior to the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Going by last year’s form, you can say he was the next best thing to Ted Noffey. Although no match for the champ in the Breeders’ Futurity, he kept up with him every step of the way to finish a clear-cut second, beaten 2 3/4 lengths, while finishing two lengths ahead of Litmus Test in third. Once again, there won’t be too much to say about him over the next several weeks, but he made enough of an impression in his three starts to keep considering him an exciting horse to follow up to his debut, and of course beyond.. And as I have memtioned, I love the strong European classic influence in his dam’s family, with the likes of Sadler’s Wells, English and Irish Derby winner Shirley Heights, and Shirley Heights’ sire, the legendary Mill Reef. Between his mechanics, his tactical speed, his pedigree, and the competiton he’s already faced, there is no reason to believe we won’t be hearing a lot from him once he gets back.
13. Secured Freedom (Tim Yakteen, Practical Joke — Securely, by Uncle Mo)
Forget that he was beaten four lengths in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes. All that interests me is that he made the jump from a 6 1/2-furlong sprint with blazing fractions of :21 1/5 and :43 2/5 to two turns in his third career start against talented and battle-tested graded stakes horses and ran like a horse who will improve with more distance. I mentioned last week that I liked the way he drops his shoulder and reaches out with great extension while keeping a perfectly straight course. In the Lewis, he broke from the far outside post and got caught four-wide going into the first turn. Unlike his maiden race when he stalked that brutal pace, he was able to settle in last behind a bunched up field, while going more than four seconds, or 20 lengths, slower than he did in the sprint. That is adaptability. He tried to make his move going into the far turn, but the classy two turn horses in front of him were flying through a :23 3/5 quarter and he was unable to keep up. He swung five-wide turning for home, but was stuck on his left lead, going nowhere with seemingly no shot to even hit the board. He finally switched to his right lead at the sixteenth pole and when he did his stride lengthened noticably and he began to close ground. But by then, Plutarch and Intrepido, the 1-3 finishers in the Grade 1 American Pharoah Stakes, had separated themselves from the field. Secured Freedom kept coming, gobbling up ground with that humongous stride, and was able to nail the 6-5 favorite Desert Gate right on the wire for third. This was a big step forward for a colt coming off sizzling fractions in a sprint and not getting the best of trips, losing ground on the first turn, having to run four seconds slower than his previous race and still rating beautifully, and then failing to switch leads until it was too late. But with it all he still was able to get third. Now we’ll see if he can take that next step.
14. Intrepido (Jeff Mullins, Maximus Mischief — Overly Indulgent, by Pleasantly Perfect)
The big question going into the Robert B. Lewis Stakes was which Intrepido would we see, the Baffert basher of the American Pharoah Stakes or the dud from the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. The answer in a way was neither. He couldn’t bash all the Baffert horses this time, wound up fighting for the lead for the first time since his maiden victory back in August, and was outgunned by Plutarch, who he had defeated in the American Pharoah. But more importantly, he surely was no dud this time, and in fact ran as good a race under the circumstances as he did in the American Pharoah. We basically saw the same determined fighter we saw in his big victory, and it appears as if he wants to be on or just off the pace. He did break his maiden by 3 1/4 lengths in 1:35 3/5 for the mile after battling head and head on the lead. He has both middle distance speed and stamina in his pedigree and his dam’s sire line traces to Ribot through His Majesty, leading sire in America in 1982; Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner Pleasant Colony; and Intrepido’s broodmare sire Pleasantly Perfect, winner of the Breeders’ Cup Classic, Dubai World Cup, and Pacific Classic. So, for now it seems safe to assume that his Breeders’ Cup Juvenile was an anomaly and it is time to put that race behind him and focus of his performances before and after that race.
15. Courting (Todd Pletcher, Curlin — Cavorting, by Bernardini)
I decided at the last minute to rank him, because I feel he is a much better horse than he’s showed and I love the way he’s been working. I feel he has a good shot to finish in the money in Saturday’s Risen Star Stakes, with a chance to be right there at the finish if he has matured from the big long-striding 2-year-old who ran well, but needed a bit of of a jump start, which I feel he may have gotten over the winter. Look, even a $5 million yearling needs some love. Because of the possibilities coming up this weekend, I am ranking him over previously ranked Pletcher horses Class President and Jackson Hole, who still have a lot to prove, while he can prove he belongs on Saturday. This is a horse who is still learning and hasn’t had the cleanest of trips, especially in the Remsen, when he got slammed hard from both sides coming out of the gate, got shuffled to the back of the pack, and was bumped going into the first turn. He did make a good run around the turn, but was very wide and simply had done too much to keep up with Paladin and Renegade, finishing fourth. In his three starts he raced greenly and never really put it all together. But he did show speed winning wire-to-wire in his maiden victory, so we know he is capable of running on or off the pace. If he has indeed matured and has put a little more gas in the tank, there is no reason why we can’t see a more polished version on this colt, and that could be enough to put him square in the Derby picture.
KNOCKING ON THE DOOR
No we haven’t forgotten about CLASS PRESIDENT and JACKSON HOLE, who were ranked last week. There simply was too much activity this weekend and we have plenty of time until their next start to put them back in the top 15. Both need to get faster and we want to see where they decide to run Class President and who shows up to face Jackson Hole in the Fountain of Youth Stakes. Both are still major players, but the Derby trail is an ever changing cycle of ups and downs and ins and outs. What is important is being up and in come mid-March and April. Catching up on their recent Thoro-Graph numbers, Class President regressed from a “6 3/4” to an “8 3/4” in the Swale, but we expect a solid move forward stretching back out in distance. Jackson Hole has run a “13 1/4” and then a “10” in his allowance victory. It was good to see improvement, but he’ll need to make a fairly big move forward off that. We still have a lot to learn about both these colts, and even with the loss of Ted Noffey, there are only so many Pletcher horses we can put in the top 15.
Could it be that the most dynamic and talented Kentucky Derby hopeful is a filly? Anyone who watched the undefeated and untested Demoiselle winner ZANY basically toy with her field in the Suncoast Stakes and win despite her mind seeming to wander, perhaps because things come so easily for her. The daughter of American Pharoah pulled one stunt after another as if showing everyone how she got her name, even though her owner Mike Repole admits naming her after himself. Trapped behind and between horses for most of the run down the backstretch, she finally got clear sailing four-wide and took the lead at the head of the stretch while still on cruise control. But when she straightened out in the stretch that’s when the fun began, as she refused to change leads and kept drifting in the entire stretch run while cocking her head to the right. She finally switched leads inside the sixteenth and drew clear to win by 2 3/4 lengths with her ears straight up. She continued strong past the wire, pulling well clear of everyone while hugging the rail as if she was just starting to get interested in running.
In the 1 1/8-mile Demoiselle, which she won by 8 1/2 lengths, she was a bit green, but nothing like she was in the Suncoast. And in that race she again won with her ears straight up and galloped out far ahead of the others, once again hugging the rail as if she wanted to go around again. I am mentioning all this because her owner Repole said her next target likely will be either the Ashland Stakes or the Wood Memorial. I believe that’s the first time I’ve heard that choice of races. If the Derby winds up as her ultimate goal I hope she learns how to focus and get down to serious business. We know she has the raw talent, and if she can put it all together in one complete package, there is no doubt she is destined to do great things.
Perhaps the most frustrating aspect of this year’s Derby trail, as we have mentioned before, has been the number of “if onlys.” If only CHIEF WALLABEE and CANALETTO and several other exciting late developers had gotten started earlier. Well, now we can add two horses from the same race, who put on such a spectacular show in a mile and 40-yard maiden race at Tampa Bay Saturday, you can be sure the money is going to come pouring in on both of them. Just imagine if the Chad Brown-trained EMERGING MARKET and the Pletcher/Repole colt POWERSHIFT had debuted in separate races. They might have both lapped their field. As it is, when they hooked up at the top of the stretch, you could tell this was going to be a battle to the wire with the remainder of the field already waving a white flag. Powershift, who got first run, came out into Emerging Market turning for home and again down the stretch, but neither colt would give an inch, as they kept pulling farther and farther away from the field. Finally, it was Emerging Market who had that little bit extra to win by three-quarters of a length, with Powershift finishing 13 1/2 lengths ahead of the third horse Make My Day, another highly touted first-timer who actually was a very slight second choice at 3-1 over the winner. It wasn’t just the domination and fast time of the two colts, it was the way they did it in their career debuts. They both displayed all the tools you want to see in a young horse, combining brilliance with fortitude and professionalism. And both have fascinating pedigrees, which I will get into next week. I don’t know what the plans are, and even though it seems pretty late to think Derby, both colts need to be mentioned as a reminder of what we have to look forward to.
And just as a point of interest, Emerging Market and Powershift ran the mile and 40 yards in 1:39.11 compared to the 1:40.56 time run by Zany in the Suncoast Stakes. Of course, she won her race far more easily, but it is still quite a difference and could say a great deal about the quality of both colts.
Yes, I know it’s New York, and Derby horses aren’t supposed to come out of the 1 1/8-mile Withers Stakes on a sub-freezing day in early February with snow still on the ground. And Derby horses are not supposed to be named TALK TO ME JIMMY and have half brothers named God Still Loves Me and Senor Pickles. And you are not supposed to find Derby horses at the Keeneland yearling sale having to wait for 4,230 horses to sell before buying one. Now, you may think Rudy Rodriguez got Talk to Me Jimmy dirt cheap, waiting that long and paying only $31,000 for him, but to show you what was left at the sale when he finally got around to buying him, the horse before him sold for $4,200 and the horse after him for $6,500. And the next Modernist yearling sold four hip numbers later for $2,700. This is a sale that sees a procession of million-dollar yearlings early on. But his patience and eye for a horse paid off, as Talk to Me Jimmy was determined to take the lead from the start of the Withers and just kept going, running a promising field of 3-year-olds into the ground and coasting to a stunning 11-length victory. You never know what kind of track you’re getting at Aqueduct in the winter, so I won’t get into time, only to say he did break his maiden at Aqueduct last November by 5 1/2 lengths in a sharp 1:35 1/5 for the mile. Because we haven’t seen any world beaters so far on the Derby trail, I am going to consider a horse who wins his two starts at a mile and 1 1/8 miles by a combined 16 1/2 lengths legitimate until he proves otherwise. I actually had planned on ranking him No. 15, but decided to let this sink in a little longer.
Of the beaten horses in the Southwest, the well-bred RANCHO SANTA FE rebounded from his wide trip in the Smarty Jones Stakes, in which he was beaten 10 lengths, and ran a solid fourth. He tracked the pace, and while he never looked like a threat to win, he kept digging in, beaten only 3 1/2 lengths this time and finishing in the three-horse photo for second. BUETANE (third), raced evenly throughout and was beaten a head for second, and at this point looks as if he prefers the shorter distances. Baffert originally had him targeted for the Saudi Derby and he likely would have had a big chance there. The other horse who obviously wants shorter distance is the speedy D’CODE, who was stretching out off one runaway sprint victory and faded to eighth. The big disappointment was STRATEGIC RISK, who tried to make up ground on the turn, but it didn’t take long to see that the tank was empty and he staggered home in 10th with no apparent excuse according to trainer Mark Casse. Also coming up empty was the late-closing Gun Runner Stakes runner-up LIBERTY NATIONAL, who didn’t run well and didn’t run horribly, finishing sixth, beaten 5 1/2 lengths. This is a horse trainer Kenny McPeek had been very high on and he will have to improve considerably to get back in the Derby picture. Perhaps a return to Fair Grounds can do the trick.
The biggest surprise of the weekend had to be the second-place finish of WAYNE’S LAW in the Sam F. Davis Stakes at odds of 48-1. On the surface that may not bode well for Renegade, but Wayne’s Law had never finished out of the money, broke his maiden at Gulfstream by 6 3/4 lengths and then romped by 7 1/4 lengths in the one-mile Aventura Stakes at Gulfstream. His odds no doubt were reflected by his third-place finish in the Jean Laffitte Stakes at Delta Downs, dropping back to 7 1/2 furlongs. Now he was stretching out to two turns, and being by Tiz the Law, out of a Harlan’s Holiday mare, this shouldn’t have been that big a shock. In fact, he finished well clear of a some talented colts who were highly regarded, such as THE PUMA, coming off a second to Chief Wallabee, CONFESSIONAL, coming off a second to Nearly, and DR. KAPUR, an impressive maiden winner at Keeneland who set the pace in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. So this obviously was a much better colt than his odds would indicate.
There are a couple of other interesting horses to watch in the Risen Star. One is the Kenny McPeek-trained UNIVERSE, who was a huge disappointment in the LeComte. After running several big races in major stakes last year he came up totally empty. McPeek has been sharpening him at the gate and said he was putting blinkers on him. But if you’re looking for a sneaky horse who could be live at a big price, keep an eye on QUALITY MISCHIEF, a son of Into Mischief, out of a Quality Road mare who was beaten only a length in the Gun Runner Stakes at 25-1 and then broke a step slow from post 1 in the LeComte Stakes at 29-1 and dropped back to last in the 10-horse field. Still some 10 lengths back on the far turn, he made his move along the inside, then eased out where he found himself caught in a traffic jam. He kept easing out looking for room and when he found it he got into a bit of shoving match with ther horse outside him, but kept coming, getting stronger with each stride. The winner Golden Tempo was able to make his move along the rail, but overlooked was Quality Mischief closing fast way out in the middle of the track to finish fifth, beaten only three lengths. Trained by Brad Cox and owned by Donegal Stable, this colt could be sitting on a big race at a big price.
America will be represented in the Saudi Derby by MY WORLD, a very promising colt by Essential Quality, out of an Into Mischief mare, who has won his last three starts, including impressive scores at a mile in the Nashua and Jerome Stakes. He is bred to go long, has excellent tactical speed, and is trained by Brad Cox. There will be large contingent from Japan coming over, and several other quality horses, but this colt should be tough if he can run the way he did in his two stakes victories at Aqueduct. The U.S, also will be represented by the Steve Assmusen-trained OBLITERATION, who looked like a world beater when he broke his maiden by 7 1/2 lengths and then romped by 10 1/2 lengths in the Sanford Stakes. But after four straight defeats, the last three on grass, he returned to the dirt and won the six-furlong Renaissance Stakes at Oaklawn by 7 1/2 lengths. Kenny McPeek has entered VERY CONNECTED, a late closer who is coming off a fifth, beaten 2 1/2 lengths, in the Gun Runner Stakes. Finally, there is the speedball ACKNOWLEDGEMEPLZ, trained by Doug O’Neill, who is coming off a third in the seven-furlong San Vicente Stakes after setting a torrid :43 2/5 half in a race run in 1:21 flat.
Also this weekend is the Sunland Derby, which did not draw a strong field by any means. The favorite should be EXPRESS KID, who is coming off a 6 1/4-length wire-to-wire victory in the Remington Springboard Mile in December. Another colt who should get bet is BRICKLIN, who was scratched out of the Southwest Strakes and also is coming off a wire-to-wire score, his a one-mile allowance race at Oaklawn Park. Steve Asmussen trains WAY BEYOND, beaten a nose in the Riley Allison Futurity at Sunland after getting crushed by 11 lengths in the Springboard Mile. The Riley Allison winner, DANEYKO, also is back and is one to watch coming from far back. Doug O’Neill is sending the Paul Reddam-owned PAVLOVIAN, who has had an up and down career. His biggest down was losing his rider at the start of the Golden State Juvenile Stakes on Breeders’ Cup Friday. His ups include a second to Desert Gate in the Best Pal Stakes and a fast-closing third in the California Chrome Cal Cup Derby last time out, in which he stretched out to two turns and rallied from ninth to be beaten 3 1/4 lengths. He also finished fourth in the King Glorious Stakes, so he’s been picking up checks.
It’s time to start thinking of ranking BRANT, even though he still is not close to a race. It is also time to stop looking at him as a $3 million 2-year-old purchase who could have distance limitations and has a paddling action and start looking at his attributes. First there is his speed. He has a triple-digit speed rating on both Brisnet and Beyer figure and his two other starts range from 96 to 98 on Brisnet and 91 to 95 on Bey, ander. He also is the best finisher of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile still around. In his career debut he ran a wickedly fast “2 1/2” Thoro-Graph number and as expected bounced to a “6” winning the Del Mar Futurity and then started moving forward sligfhtly to a “5 1/2.” So I would expect that forward move to continue when he returns. He did have a slight setback, but is back working steadily. Baffert said he is “coming back great,” and I like what I have seen in his works, which have been solo, especially his powerful gallop-out in his last work in 1:01 4/5 for five furlongs. To add to his pedigree from last week, his dam is a half sister to graded stakes winner Pappacap, who finished second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and American Pharoah Stakes. As someone who came up in racing during the days of Dr. Fager and Damascus, I find it exciting that he has Dr. Fager in his pedigree four times and Damascus three times, as well as having Dr. Fager’s two-time champion half-sister Ta Wee. And as a great admirer of Darby Dan Farm’s classic bloodlines, I am thrilled to see Epsom Derby winner Roberto in his pedigree three times and His Majesty (who I wrote about several weeks ago) twice.
In other Baffert news, BOYD and BLACKSMITH worked five furlongs in company in 1:00 2/5. There is a good chance we could see both of them ship out of town.
The exciting maiden winner ENGLISHMAN, another who is way behind, is getting sharper, working three-eighths in a snappy :35 flat at Fair Grounds
Racing historian, author, and award-winning retired journalist for the Daily Racing Form and The Blood-Horse, Steve Haskin was inducted into the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame’s Media Roll of Honor in 2016. Known for his racing knowledge and insightful prose, he has been an exclusive contributor to Secretariat.com since 2020.
Baeza going to Bill Mott!
Hello Steve,
Could you give us the Choreograph # for Paladan and Bottle Of Rouge? I like her comeback.
Thank you.
Thorograph #
My thought on the Risen Star .
As I posted before the running it I did not feel this was a strong field and Paladin was the stand out. He did not prove me wrong by winning it. I thought his ride by Tyler G was very good but I think Flavian Prat will get it back if he wants it. I think that will depend on how well Brant will do in his comeback (if he does make it to the derby trail). In the Risen Star I felt Courting was going to give him a run for his money but as it proved he is a puzzle of a horse (more on him later below). Chip Honcho proved to be quite a challenge and my heart was breaking for him as Paladin was closing in on him. If he could not hold the lead that he had in the stretch at a 1 1/8 what make you think he can do it for 1 1/4 mile? Watching his previous race it was clear he wanted to run in the beginning of the race and Paco Lopez had him in a stranglehold trying to rate him which he wanted no part of. Luis Saez let him go in the RS but I think a 1 1/8 mile is too much for him. If he was my horse I would forget about the KD and concentrate on smaller shorter races with good purses possibly looking at the end goal of being in the Pat Day mile. Same with Carson Street who also looks to have distance limitations again the goal being in the Pat Day mile. Golden Tempo came running at the end like I thought be was no threat to the winner. With Quality Mischief the Brad Cox mystery of his 3 year olds poor performances continues. With Further Ado and Commandment you got to think one of them will bring an end to it…… Stay tune.
Now back to Courting. I was looking at his past performances and 2 things ( possible 3 ) stand out. One, his training and races have been done on predominantly sand base surface and perhaps a change of racing surface (more clay base) might help him. 2nd, His workouts have been mostly 4 furlong workouts (none to write home about about). He had 2 slow 5 furlong works at the end of August and Sept of 2025 and before that 3 furlongs. This is a Todd Pletcher (MO) . It works for some of his horses but obviously not Courting, he has been babied too much. I would suggest a trainer change to either John Sadler or Richard Mandella who don’t seem to have a strong 3 year old in their barn this year and can be given a lot of attention They are not averse to throwing in a “strong” 6 , 7 or even an 8 furlong workout if needed This horse needs a wake up call !!! And this leads me to my 3rd suggestion and that is figuring what running style best fits this horse. In the RS it looks like they tried to engage him early in the race (some say he had a bad start and I saw a little dip in at the start but he was not going to beat CH or CS to the lead he is not that fast) and was sitting just behind the earlier leaders. He was sitting 4 or 5 position going on the backstretch and going into the far turn which I thought was pretty good spot but then he gets to the stretch and shows nothing . I think he is best suited as a closer after that performance and with that said sharp 5 (sub one minute )to 6 furlong (1:10 to 1:12) workouts is what I would give him. Pletcher would never do this.
I know some here would not agree with me but this horse needs a change and as right now the owners are sitting on an expensive dud for a runner. I would start with a surface change.and proceed from there. Zedan owns another “expensive” Curlin who cannot even make it to the track.
I think Paladin is the real thing and I like the path the trainer and owner have for him leading up to the Derby. He will improve greatly off of the Risen Star and should prove tough for the Derby if he comes out of the Blue Grass Stakes in good order whether he is good enough to win it all we shall see
Waiting for Steve weekly list either today or tomorrow. Shouldn’t see too many changes.
BTW… Baeza new trainer has been named and it is Bill Mott ….. Should be a good fit as I feel Mott’s training style will fit Baeza past running style. But got to say I was surprised he didn’t go to Cherie D.
Downy, I agree with you about Courting. He’s never shown much on the track. As for him needing those long, fast works, they definitely suggest he needs the hand of a more aggressive yet patient trainer.
I feel the two trainers I mentioned would be good change. Both are well respected.
One of the greatest actors of my generation, Robert Duvall, has passed away at his home in Virginia at age 95.
I enjoyed every role he played through years but several stand out: “Apocalypse Now”, “Tender Mercies” and “Lonesome Dove”.
95 yrs old. A great life. I especially enjoyed him in Open Range. “He never tasted chocolate before.”
One of last movies was on 2021, “12 Mighty Orphans”
Depression era, based on a true story about a football team.
He made a cameo appearance with his granddaughter.
Really good movie by the way.
Cannot think of a movie he played in that I did not enjoy.
He said in an interview one time that you cannot force an acting role.
He did his own singing in “Tender Mercies”.
Lynda – He was truly a great actor.
Have you seen The Great Santini? He was fantastic in that film!
Not yet.
Thanks for suggestion!
Sad news Lynda… Lonesome Dove was one of my dad’s favorite. He also was in Godfather’s 1 & 2. Great actor and agree of my generation.
Dts,
I really cannot think of a movie he was in that I did not enjoy.
“Lonesome Dove” was one of his best and one of husband’s favorites as well.
We have the DVD.
That was a great cast. Tommy Lee Jones is another one of my favorite actors.
Yes Tommy Lee Jones has played in some good ones.
I really liked Duvall in The Apostle, a sleeper of a movie.
He had a long, wonderful career. Did you know that he was in To Kill a Mockingbird?
My favorite role was Lonesome Dove (the Times obit said it was DuVall’s personal favorite as well). And he was a horse person in addition to an amazing actor in any role from Boo Radley in “To Kill a Mockingbird” to the consiglerie in “The Godfather.” What more could you ask of a great actor?
An exciting finish to the Sunland Derby! I’m sorry I missed seeing that one live.
Somewhat disappointed by Courting’s performance in the Risen Star.
me too!
I’m all in on Plutarch as my top Derby prospect. In Pool 1, I placed a $40.00 win wager on him at 76-1. Today, in Pool 4, I placed a $50.00 win wager on Plutarch, at 27-1.
In addition, I wheeled him on top, with ALL, in a $2.00 exacta wager.
BTW, I just heard that Thunderously is off the Derby trail.
I like Plutarch and I almost pulled the trigger on betting him, but my total future’s budget this year is only $50. You’ve got good value with your bets, Bill. Good luck!
As for Thunderously, he hasn’t had a workout since December, so I knew something was up with him. Which begs the question…. doesn’t Churchill communicate with the trainers of these Derby propects? I mean if the horse is inactive, what are they doing including him in Pool 4? Not fair to bettors who invested their money on Thunderously. Geesh!
Thanks for the reply, Dewey
In the past couple of weeks, I’ve hit a few big superfectas and have a lot of house money in my account to work with. I just checked the exacta payouts in Pool 4 and some are quite large. As I mentioned, I wheeled Plutarch on top, with ALL underneath in a $2.00 exacta wager (cost, $76.00).
Now, all I need is a win by Plutarch, to collect some serious money. 🙂
Good Luck Bill !!! More guts than I have for those kind of bets … but then again I did not hit those Superfectas like you did 11!
I am on him and Paladin so far. We shall see if one jumps up. Strange year so far.
Thunderously is off the Derby Trail with an injury, per trainer Bill Mott
It appears that we posted our comment on Thunderously at the same time.
That is too bad and sorry to hear that but was not impressed by him as I was with Chief Wallabee.
Futures Pool 4 is closed with all others favored at 9-2. Paladin is runner up at 7-1. I bet $25,,,,, $10 on Napoleon Solo @ 30-1; $10 on Class President @ 75-1 (oh boy) and $5 on Iron Honor @ 99-1 (my bomb). Y’all stay healthy, hear!
No winner of the Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs has ever won the Kentucky Derby.
Bluegrass Cat did run 2nd in the 2006 Derby though.
Renegade would be the first.
Frankly, I don’t like the route through Tampa Bay Downs at all. It just seems like if you run there you are looking for easier competition.
I agree, Tommy. If you really want to find out if you have a Derby horse, you avoid the soft fields in the Tampa Bay Derby. Besides, it’s a quirky surface and not a true test. JMO
There is nothing wrong with looking for easier competition in prep races. I fact, the old idiom is ” Find the best company for yourself, and the worst for your horse”
Agree as well. It’s a marathon not a sprint.
That’s a good one, Sov.
Totally agree… Pletcher sends his 3rd stringer to tampa which speaks volumes….but he was wrong about Super Saver….the biggest negative for Renegade is Pletcher himself…2 for 65 lifetime…TP is a bet against to me.
Dominic, my thoughts exactly. He usually finds a way to mess things up.
I would not dismiss Renagade just because he won at Tampa Downs. He dominated that race and this is not a TP front runner but a closer. Dismiss at your own risk !!!
Thanks! I will!
Street Sense and Super Saver say otherwise
I am looking forward to seeing a race that includes, Paladin, Further Ado and Brant. We can then all shout, “who’s ur daddy”?
Paladin was all out to beat Chip Honcho. Which makes me think that there are better 3-year-old colts out there. Of course, Chip Honcho was riding a severe speed bias with a hot jock. In don’t think that Paladin is that much better than Renegade who had to go to Tampa Bay Downs to win. Paladin’s next race should clear things up. Bluegrass???
Todd Pletcher’s $5million sensation broke bad again even with the addition of blinkers. The bad break cost Courting. No one was closing on that track. But I don’t think that Courting looked as good as he did when losing to Paladin at Aqueduct. $5million don’t buy what it used to.
Bella Ballerina in the Rachel Alexandra looked beaten by Luv Your Neighbor before rallying impressively to get the win. But was it really impressive? Luv Your Neighbor is a notorious hanger. She was hanging like a coat hanger in a closet on Saturday.
I doubt that we saw the Derby winner nor the Oaks winner at Fair Grounds on Saturday. No offense.
I’m going to focus on Commandment, Litmus Test, and Chief Wallabee for now.
Agree Tommy…Paladin is everybody’s darling because he was named after a TV character…HYPE! HYPE! HYPE! Not saying he couldnt win but like you I’m skeptical….there is a least a half dozen on my list just as good….in 75 days we’ll find out…
Nice win from Paladin in the Risen Star. He broke well and settled in 4th, a few lengths off of the leader. Chip Honcho ran valiantly in defeat, though it was Paladin who pressured him at the top of the stretch and tipped out, catching him near the wire with a strong gallop out. The long CD Stretch will benefit Paladin as well as extra 1/8 of a mile. Very happy to have bet Paladin at 22-1 in KDFW2.
Paladin sure busted the Risen Star open with that performance. Was impressed by Chip Honcho’s ability to hold on; I previously thought of him as a sprinter/miler but he showed he could run farther today.
The various figures should be excellent for Paladin — the fractional times for the Risen Star aligned closely with those for the (slightly shorter) Mineshaft won by Grade 1 winner Hit Show.
And while Golden Tempo got beat, he defeated everyone but the top two. He’s still a Top 10 Derby horse in my opinion.
Don’t care for connections, but he’s a serious racehorse.
Hi Mike,
Curious what connections you refer to?
Hello Dominic. Not crazy about Brown,although this horse is the real deal.
Very impressive win by Paladin, especially after the time-off. Deserving favorite now….interestingly enough, in the CD/Twinspires Derby future bet, Paladin and ‘All Others’ are co-favorites at 8-1….Golden Tempo will probably get a faster pace in the Derby, and so will the other closers…
Also was overjoyed to see Forever Young’s repeat victory in the Saudi Cup….really going to miss him when he retires…
A clone of the great Cigar. Leading up to race, training well. Not surprised of the result.
Paladin validated his place atop the Derby ranking with a superb 3-year-old debut in the Risen Star Stakes. His time of 1:49 flat was 1/5 of a second off the Stakes record time (1:48 4/5) finishing in 12 3/5 the last furlong… you could not ask for better performance after a 70 day-layoff.
Paladin was lugging out in the homestretch perhaps reacting to left hitting but his class prevailed to defeat a very stubborn Chip Honcho trying to win wire to wire.
I just hope Paladin comes out the race in good order and keeps moving forward with his plan. His 60 qualifying points certainly takes some pressure off Chad Brown.
In handicapping today’s Risen Star except for Paladin this is a so-so to weak field. Paladin has 3 things going against though. 1st, has never raced at the Fairgrounds.
2nd , He has a new jockey and 3rd he has not raced in over 2 months (though he did have just about 2 months off before his win in the Remsen) with that said though he still looks the best in this race. Courting looks like his main competition. If this horse with his pedigree can figure it out he could be a beast. I liked Carson Street last effort but we are adding on another 1/16th of a mile and he does have his nemesis Chief Honcho in the race here too. Golden Tempo who beat CS and CH last time out should be flying at the end but his time last time out was sorta on the slow side. Universe is an enigma and don’t know what to make of him. Colt Forty Seven doesn’t seem to be in the same league as these (which isn’t saying much).
Although I said I wasn’t going to bet this race I have decided to play a $.10 superfecta
with Paladin and Courting 1 and 2 (both ways) and everyone else 3 and 4 (except C 40 7 watch he will run the race of his life) .
This is going to cost me a whopping $4 ( I know the last of the bigtime bettors) just for fun.
Oh left out Quality Mischief . I am trying to find a race for Brad Cox to break his dismal under performances with his horses. Tried to like QM for this race. He has a nice pedigree but just could not find enough positives to finish better than 3rd or fourth. But who knows maybe the light bulb will go off. Jockey change might help
Flavien Prat may lose Paladin mount for the Derby but riding in Saudi Arabia was a very lucrative decision indeed… his earning the last two days mounted to 5.72 million dollars. Prat won with Imagination the Dirt Sprint ($1.2 Million for first) and the second place with Nysos paid $3.5 Million.
Not not too shabby for two days of work… specially if you note that the prize for the first place in the Kentucky Derby is “only” $3.1 M…
And?
Wow, the iron horse, Forever Young, does it again. Back to back Saudi Cup wins. Three years in a row Forever Young has given me more thrills in racing than any other horse that I’ve followed. Thank you, big guy! You made my day. Next stop, Dubai.
I agree, Dewey! He’s a super horse, which he’s proved over and over again — the best in the world in my opinion. And he beat a good one in Nysos, for whom the race set up perfectly (a one-turn race at 1 ⅛ miles). Forever Young’s best distance is probably a mile and quarter, but he seems to get it done no matter how far he runs.
Dewey, and all here that was a horse race.which gave me goosebumps just watching it. That is why I gave my nod for FY to be horse of the year last year. Nysos has nothing to hang his head down as he gave FY a battle all the down the stretch and matched him stride for stride the last hundred meters. FY got a little jump on him at the top of stretch but no doubt Forever Young was the best horse today. Sovereignty will have his hoofs full with the likes of Nysos, Cornucopia, Nevada Beach , Journalism, Baeza and of course Forever Young if his connections wish to continue running him. Hope they all stay healthy and may the best horse win !!!
I think Sovereignty beats them all on any given day!
I hope he gets to prove it. I don’t think he is a shoe in.
Me too! The older division will be better than it has been in ages….and while I think he can beat any of them it doesn’t mean he can’t be beat…
Yes Dewey … Like you I had not felt the elation Forever Young brings since the days of the unconquerable Cigar.
It is really amazing the ease of this win considering he ran without a prep since the Breeder’s Cup …
Forever Young has been so dominant that no one can even recall that Hit Show and Mixto were the only horses who could defeat him in 2025 …
It is said that Forever Young will run two or three more times this year with his last race in Japan in December (no Breeder’s Cup this year) … it would be a great national celebration of the greatest Japanese DIRT runner before heading to stud.
I hope Forever Young becomes the next Sunday Silence in the breeding arena…!
And, per reports, he was less than 90% and he won on Valentine’s Day no less.
Forever Young is now on my list of 10 favorite Thoroughbreds during my lifetime.
Now onto the Dubai World Cup!
Congratulations to all the connections!
Yes Lynda … he should be in many personal rolls of honor.
Reading the body language of Forever Young’s Jockey during the interview after the race one can infer he had the race in control from the get go… i.e. he was super confident despite not bringing their A game today…
It will be long time before seeing another international star like Forever Young… Forever Great!
Nelson, there had been talk about running Forever Young just once on the grass before retiring. If they do, would it be possible that the Arc de Triomphe is on their itinerary? That jewel in his crown would add to his legacy.
You are right Dewey … some are convinced he is would be even better running on turf … The Arc seems a tall order for first time on the turf besides there are a lot of very prestigious Turf Stakes in Japan to choose from…
Let’s see what Forever Young team has for us in his last season of racing…
Hope you’re well Nelson. Spent a lot of time with Cigar.
Hip, hip, hooray for Forever Young! I yelled myself hoarse during the stretch drive. What joy that horse brings!
Oh yes!
Gosh, I step away from racing news for a few days and come back to find we’ve lost two of my favorites. The weird thing is that just a few hours ago, I was looking at the photos of Afleet Alex I took when visiting him at Gainesway in 2019. I’ll never forget him.
Sometimes I get too caught up in the many replays that I watch. I can clearly see that Chip Honcho had a terrible trip in the Lecomte. Frankly, a horrible ride by Paco Lopez thrown in. Which is probably why Luis Saez takes over in the Risen Star. Chip Honcho broke bad from the extreme outside post, was rushed up to press the pace, and raced wide the whole way. Naturally, he conked out in the last 100 yards.
However, is Chip Honcho good enough to beat the visually impressive Paladin? I really don’t know. Blinkers come off on Saturday.
DRF handicapper Marcus Hersh is adamant that the addition of blinkers will make Courting a new horse. A horse worthy of the $5million price tag? We’ll see. Steve Haskin comments that he loves the way that Courting is working. Todd Pletcher seems loaded with talented 3-year-olds of both sexes. The price could be right and Johnny V sticks.
Golden Tempo comes from way back. Can he make up that much ground on Paladin?
If Courting gets involved early, there could be enough pace to help the undefeated Golden Tempo. Jose Ortiz seems the perfect rider for Golden Tempo. Ortiz has been dominant at Fair Grounds.
Only eight three year olds, but The Risen Star has an interesting field….I read where they asked Chad Brown if Palidin compares well, with Sierra Leone—Chad was reluctant to go that far, and so am I….I thought Sierra Leone was a very good horse….I thought he was unlucky to not win the Derby….and I thought he was best, in last year’s Classic….Paladin may be a good one, I’m trying to beat him, tomorrow….
RIP to John Sherrifs. A true gentleman and a classy knowledgeable trainer who did such a wonderful job with Zenyatta and Baeza, Giacomo , to name a few. Class President worked a solid 48.8 today at Palm Downs in preparation for his next race stretching out which will hopefully be a KY Derby points prep in Early MAR. I bet CP at 50-1 in KDFW3. I like his big stride and believe he will love 2 turns and stretching out being by Uncle Mo. Looking forward to a big race from Paladin in the Risen Star ⭐️.
I guess Baeza will be moved into Cherries Devaux’s barn…
Yeh, Matthew, I guess that would make sense as I just found out this morning that Cherie Devaux is married to John Sherriff’s son. She’s getting a good one.
John was “giddy” about Baeza….we shall see how he does, as a 4yo—we didn’t get to see Mage and Dornoch, but Baeza abides! I look forward to his battles, with Sov and Journalism….
Heartbroken to hear John Shirreffs is gone, especially for his family. He trained some wonderful horses and one truely great one, Zenyatta.
Steve,
I really enjoyed listening to you on past the wire with john s. It was such a treat to HEAR your analysis. Next time turn on your camera lol! I hope you will do this more often.
D
You should thank God for small favors.
Mesquite if off the Derby trail. He finished a close 2nd to Golden Tempo in the Lecomte.
Not many trainers have won a Kentucky Derby….John Shirreffs did it with a 50-1 shot…
The Hall of Fame is loaded with trainers who didn’t develop one, as good as Zenyatta…Zenyatta was a life work….she was good enough to be favored in two Classics…..
Truly a nice guy in racing…. and talented. Sorry to hear.
Race 7 at the Fairgrounds Saturday, The outside horse, Quality Spirits, ran against Dazzle D’Oro, who ran 108.65 for 6F in June then got dusted by Blackout Time going a mile at Ellis. He has a shot to spring the upset. I think there was a reference to Blackout Time here or in week 3 postings, I’ll have to dig for it. I love this time of year with those who aren’t chasing 1st Sat in May dreams but you never know in a wide open season.
Afleet Alex was a favorite. Tim Ritchey used an unorthodox training style, what runners would call interval training. Lots of various speeds and distances at various times of day. He had plenty of stamina, which he showed in his dominant Belmont. I always thought Jeremy Rose got a bad rap for his KD ride. He was close to a fast pace, but he was with the flow of race, got through smoothly, but just got outfinished. I’ve wondered if his miraculous recovery in the Preaknesx ultimately caused an injury that led to his retirement after the Belmont. He could have had a really great career.
In the KD, Jeremy Rose had Alex quite far back early in the race and took him forward gradually. The problem, I thought, was he took him in fits and starts with Alex having to gain momentum and then lose it multiple times. That takes a lot of energy out of a horse and by the time they got to the stretch Alex didn’t have much left. It would have been better probably to have him a little closer and then wait for one good run.
We lost two good ones today……
John Sherriffs was an astute trainer who was connected to his horses. His prize pupil, of course, was the great Zenyatta who stole every fans’ heart with her thrilling rallies down the stretch. Giacomo, Baeza and others also flourished under John’s care. Rest easy, Mr. Sherriffs. You did a fine job.
And then, there was one of my favorite thoroughbreds, Afleet Alex. He was my Derby horse and I think his massive performance in the Arkansas Derby used up too much gas and he just fell short of being a Triple Crown winner as he displayed his talent in his epic Preakness performance and his convincing victory in the Belmont. As if that wasn’t enough, Alex even had a side gig selling lemonade. lol.
Those two racing stars gave us a lot of thrills. Their legacy is intact and I will never forget them.
Dewey
You’re right we lost 2 good ones today.
John will always be remembered for Zenyatta .I will always remember Afleet Alex for his win in the Belmont Stakes and the Trifecta that got away from me for that day.
The irony in all this is John Sherriffs was the trainer of Giacomo the horse that beat Afleet Alex in the Kentucky Derby denying him the Triple Crown . RIP to both
Ah yes, the irony. Sherriffs beats Afleet Alex with Giacomo in the Derby and they both pass on the same day. Perhaps as it should be.
RIP John Shirreffs – what a shock; I just saw the news posted at HRN. I will always remember the stellar job he did with Zenyatta, one of my all-time faves. I’m happy he had a good one in Baeza last year.
Also sad to lose Afleet Alex. His Preakness win after going to his knees at the top of the stretch, as well as that Belmont domination, are among my favorite TC moments.
I hope Silent Tactic wins the Derby
RIP Afleet Alex!
Looking forward to see how Paladin runs. Still have not found my horse for the Derby this year. Plutarch is an interesting late developer. His next race will tell the tale for me. Most this year have run what I consider slow times. Slow come home times. It should be an interesting year.
Steve, I’ve been following this sport for a long time….although not nearly as long as you 🙂
Every now and then a horse comes along and gives off that unmistakable “wow” feeling. You mentioned Emerging Market in KOTD segment. Do you see a path where he could follow a similar trajectory as Justify debuting in February and carrying that momentum all the way to the first Saturday in May? Or, the landscape has shifted enough that such a campaign would be far more difficult to replicate in the present?
I dont think its more difficult now. It was difficult then and now. It is easier when the 3yo crop is mediocre, and we dont know that yet. Mage pulled it off as well but started a bit earlier. Remember however neither colt had a career after the Triple Crown. Not sure if Klarman wants to and let’s see what Paladin does Saturday. Also this race took a lot more out of him than Justify’s or Mage’s first start.
I didn’t see his MSW, but why to you see a “wow” with this horse?
Go you YouTube and type….Tampa Bay Downs 2-07-2026 race 6
to
Silent Tactic?? Instead of Silent Critic
Steve,I find Rancho Santa Fe intriguing because he ran so unevenly,and yet was in the photo for place.His Beyer took a big leap.How about Thoroughgraph?With a bit more maturity who knows?
10 1/4 to 6 1/2
Boy do I have a lot of catching up to do, but this is the place to do just that. Lots of choices this year with the heavy favorite unfortunately benched. I was hoping you would have some scoop on Strategic Risk. I was stunned by his performance. I was sure you would have a reason but I’m not giving up on him yet. I just hope he doesn’t have a problem yet to be discovered. I’ve been pleasantly distracted by our Seahawks so my attention has been elsewhere but I can now focus on what matters most. Nice to see some of the regulars posting as usual. I will do my best to catch up. Film, film and more film. The road to the roses is now the focus.
Good to have you back. See you at the combines. Its not that I didn’t have reason. Casse didnt have a reason. I also was hoping he would provide one. Like Incredibolt and Universe. Why all these terrible performances by good horses for no apparent reason.
This weekend Nysos will be tested against one of the best horses in the world, Forever Young……Nysos is 7 for 8 career….his lone loss having come off of a 15-month layoff, by a neck to Mindframe…..his recent race did not look all that great, BUT—-Bob is a trainer that gets them ready to fire their best shot–in the big races—and this is the big race…..lots of trainers get good horses, that win big preps—-Bob gets good horses that win the big grade ONES—I used to see it with Whittingham, in the grade ones….. we’ll see how Nysos does, THIS weekend, Bob is over there, it’s fascinating to watch, they are facing the great world traveler Forever Young….
Ted Noffey and Napoleon Solo….two colts that one time would’ve been called “roan”…..are the two fastest horses of this crop, so far…..RARELY will you see a 1:34 3/5 mile…not by a two year old in August—–maybe Seattle Slew, but Nap Solo ran the fastest race of 2025, by a 3yo…..
Thanks for pointing that out! I like that horse.
Sorry for the typos. Stock, not stick. And when I say successful- I mean a successful, stakes winning 3 yr old Curlin. It just doesn’t seem as if Curlins survive his program. I’m beyond puzzled why owners cannot recognize this fact.
I’m always interested in Curlin…..which of his progeny have been sent to Baffert? Only one I could think of recently was Getaway Car. I could be wrong, but it seems Tod Pletcher gets quite a few…..surprised Steve Asmussen hasn’t had many since he was Curlin’s trainer.
I can’t tell if this is sarcastic? There have been a dozen in the past 5 years. Faustin, Cezanne, Curvette, western cape, Wesleyan, Solomini, Nelson, Firmus, Dagger Ranch, Grace Adler, Sonoran, Ultra Power…that’s off the top of my head. There are more…
Well, its might be sarcasm, but thats sure is a long list of horses he did not bring along well. I think your list emphasises the theory that Curlins need time and Bob doesn’t ever seem to have any to give to his young horses.
Valid point, patience is key in horse development despite what some believe.
Speaking of bob, has anybody seen Rodriguez? The scrap heap is the first place i would look…another victim!
No sarcasm intended. Thank you for the extensive answer. You have made an interesting point to me, at least.
Steve, just finished your sit down with Stettin. One discussion point was how Baffert, like many old school trainers, trains his stick hard and whoever survives, survives. First, this has obviously worked for Baffert but I don’t think it is all too healthy for a developing two yr old to go 46/58. Regardless, do you find interesting that Baffert has never had a successful Curlin- whose progeny certainly cannot be rushed. Fur some reason, owners continue sending Curlins to him and Baffert continues (stubbornly) to push them early. You would think that someone of Baffert’s advanced horsemanship would recognize this fact.
As to your first point, no one is suggesting other tainers train the way Baffert does. Just as no one would have suggested others train like Sunny Jim Fitzsimmons and Max Hirsch trained. Who knows whats healthy or isn’t. Hard to win six Kentucky Derbys and two Triple Crowns with unhealthy horses. Each trainer has their own methods. And I doubt Baffert is going to change his methods just so he gets Curlins. As to why owners send him Curlins you’ll have ask them. How many Curlins has he had that youre bringing that up and saying that owners shouldn’t send the most successful trainer in the country any Curlins?
Bob hasn’t had ONE successful 3 yr old Curlin. It’s simply a strange statistic. He has trained at least 20 in the past 5-7 years. I named 12 off the top of my head in a prior post. My point is not for him to change to get more Curlins…but to simply recognize that his methods w/ certain horses simply are not favorable. Full cards on the table, I equate his 6 Derby wins to Lance Armstrong’s 7 Tour De France wins. We obviously disagree there – which is fine.
And full cards on the table, his 6 Derby wins were probably obtained the same way Lance “won” 7 Tour De France’s ..just sayin’. I mean, YOU made the comparison.
I agree.
Mandella works his stock fast …Bob is not the only one…..
And Mandella gets plenty of setbacks….
They all do Matthew.
Baffert is a cookie-cutter trainer: all the horses have to “fit” his program, which to me, means he isn’t really a horse trainer.
Mott and Walsh are two trainers I greatly respect.
I guess you have watched his horses over the years. He is not Cookie Cutter. People say he can’t train grass horses, well he has and does train them. Few of them but they do very well. He has closers and he has stalkers and he has front runners. If you think he is a juicer and not a great trainer than that is your right. Good luck with your picks, I am sure you do very well.
He has had Du Jour as of late and that’s about it. He isn’t very good a training for turf because all he does is “stretch” speed and that doesn’t play well on grass. He is a proven cheater, due to his 5 positives in 2 years, in the Arkansas and Kentucky Derbies as well as the KY Oaks.
Stretching speed in many instances.
Some people do not consider Baffert to be an advanced horseman.
I’m going to apologize as I didn’t want this to become an anti/pro Baffert debate on Steve’s channel. Some ppl love Bob and others do not ..the info and data is out there for ppl to make their own decision. My point was that on the Stettin/Haskin podcast there was a brief discussion on his 2 yr old training methods/pushing fast/and whoever survives…survives…and I’ve always found it interesting how Baffert has never had a successful 3 yr old Curlin. For those who idolize Baffert, I’m sorry for bringing it up.
It’s not that we hate bob….we just dont like chronic cheaters…
Is it possible his so called horsemanship is overrated?
Thanks for that side trip down Memory Lane, Steve. I saw both Dr. Fager and Ta Wee run at Aqueduct several times. What I had forgotten, and recalled when looking at their histories again, was not only their speed and their records but the amount of weight they were forced to carry, from 139 to 142 pounds. I am just getting back to following the horses again regularly now and wondering when weights like that went out of fashion for handicapping.
Welcome back Tim. You should read my book on Dr. Fager. Lol. Btw in 1968 Dr Fager and Damascus ran in 1 1/4 mile stakes 16 days apart and each horse carried 130 lbs or more in both of them. Dr Fager won the first equaling the track record and Damascus won the 2nd breaking the track record…that still stands.
Dr. Fager was something special.
With the weights they carried and how fast they ran, I can only imagine the “Greats” assigned Thoro-Graph number would have looked like?
Agreed!
Attn: Nelson Maan
I know you’re very high on The Puma moving forward, possibly the Florida Derby.
Now is time to put a few dollars on him, in Derby Futures Pool 4. He opened at 90-1.
I liked what Steve had to say about Secured Freedom’s 3rd place finish in the Robert B. Lewis. He opened at 90-1 as well. He’s certainly worth a win wager at those odds, IMO.
Good luck, Nelson.
Thanks for the heads up Bill… I am more inclined to make my bets on race day despite the promise of way better pay offs playing the futures… that is my limitation of having a fixed betting budget per month.
Anyway, best of luck to you … I hope you have great outcomes in your Futures as you did last year…
You’re welcome, Nelson
I don’t blame you for not making futures bets. They’re very risky bets to say the least. Recently, I’ve hit a few superfecta wagers, with nice payouts, and accumulated a substantial bankroll in my account. So, the way I look at it, why not make a few futures win/exacta wagers with house money. As I mentioned Secured Freedom looks enticing at 90-1. I also intent to place an additional win bet on Plutarch, at 20-1 and key him on top, with a few bombers underneath in an exacta wager. In Pool 1, I placed a $40.00 win wager on Plutarch at 76-1 and keyed him on top, with Brant, Further Ado, Intrepido and Dr. Kapur underneath in a $4.00 exacta wager. Needless to say, I’m all in on Plutarch.
Best of luck moving forward, Nelson,
You’re welcome, Nelson
I don’t blame you for not making futures bets, they’re very risky to say the least.
Best of luck to you, moving forward.
For those who are interested in Gun Runner progeny, I would recommend reading the 2022 Gun Runner, Sire Phenom written by Anne Peters. It is available on her web site. It makes a lot of sense when you look at past winners and 2026 three year old colts and fillies who are trying to make themselves known. GR is beginning to make himself known as a broodmare sire as well with similar combos.
Wow Steve … I see you were just warming up the first three weeks of rankings after seeing 43 horses analyzed in this 4th week…!
Silent Tactic truly deserves his big jump into the top 5 after his powerful display defeating a very very good group of runners in the Southwest Stakes. What impressed me the most was his final 3/16 in 17.96 asking for more distance. Silent Tactic is the sort that could be peaking at the right time… The Rebel and Arkansas Derby will have one deserving favorite in the son of Tacitus.
As you said, Renegade’s electrifying win in the Sam F Davis was a preludo of what Paladin would be able to do in the upcoming Risen Star Stakes.
BTW I am glad Tyler Gaffalione was given the mount as it feels like a small measure of redemption after losing the rides on Sierra Leone following the Kentucky Derby. His Derby run brushing with Forever Young and the left-elbow contact with the Japanese jockey was undeniably controversial perhaps hampering a historic moment for Japan in the 2024 American Triple Crown.
As TommyMcD wrote below, I also hope Tyler rides a flawless race on Paladin and win even more impressively than Renegade did at Tampa and keeps the mount in the Derby … after all Prat got many other opportunities (i.e. Brandt, Boyd, Emerging Market, Canaletto, Jackson Hole)… Prat can even snatch Plutarch from Florent Geroux … they both can then bicker about that in French …
Steve, Your recollections of the days of the Dr. and Damascas betray your age, making you the Kelso of Derby prognosticators . Great company ! Btw, I saw the Dr. at Arlington as a 12yo, made me a lifetime fan. Keep doing what you do, excellent insights
Thank you Bill, but Kelso never sired a magnificent filly like I did.
Dr. Fager was the best horse that ever looked through a bridle.
Generally in agreement with the rankings. Thought Renegade flattered Paladin with his performance this weekend. Also agree that Wayne’s Law performed above expectations. He’d been winning by good margins in lesser races but had no idea how that would translate to this kind of company, thought he exceeded expectations.
Steve, I couldn’t agree with you more about Zany. Her win in the Demoiselle was a ‘wow’ moment for me, and I thought after the race that the connections should aim for the Kentucky Derby. They should still go that route, because when I see Zany winning with her ears pricked it reminds me of her brilliant sire. Go for it, Mike Repole!
Sometimes perception and actual reality are two different concepts.
All of this was interesting and informative, as always, but I was especially glad to see your comments on Secured Freedom. He looked like a bull being loaded into the gate, and then he ran like he looked toward the end of the race, galloping past the others. I don’t have a pick yet, but I think he’ll be interesting to watch.
I like Steve Haskin’s description of this week workout by Litmus Test in company with 3 other horses. It tells me that BB is working with Litmus Test. Getting him to finish his races better. Something that some of us have seen as the horse’s weakness.
I wouldn’t sleep on Litmus Test.
It can sometimes be a big mistake to get caught up in what I call “jockey musical chairs”. Does it bother anyone that Flavien Prat is off to Saudi Arabia to ride Nysos and passing up the ride on Paladin at Fair Grounds? Sure, maybe he committed to Nysos first. Yes, there is a huge pile of cash to be made at King Abdulaziz. Yes, Prat already has a Derby winner. Sort of. I’m sure that Chad Brown will give him back the ride on Paladin. Maybe. Probably. Maybe Paladin does something spectacular with Tyler Gaffalione on Saturday. And takes over on Paladin like Prat took over on Sierra Leone.
In a world where money carries the day, a possible Derby winner might not mean what it used to.
But I can’t help wondering if Prat doesn’t think Paladin is all that.
Paladin is the current Derby favorite. Not just here on Steve Haskin’s Derby rankings. But as the lowest single horse in this coming weekend’s Pool#4 Derby Future Wager.
I like Paladin. But no more than I like Commandment, Litmus Test, Nearly, or even Chief Wallabee at this point.
I wouldn’t take too low of odds on Paladin. Not yet.
Hey TommyMcD
Derby Futures Pool 4 is set to open of Friday, February 13th and close on Sunday, February 18th. Looking over the opening odds, I found a few that look enticing, at big odds.
Talk to me Jimmy, 80-1 (winner of the Withers, on 2-6)
Solitude Dude, 50-1 (winner of the Swale Stakes)
So Happy, 40-1 (looked very impressive in winning the San Vincente)
Soldier N Diplomat, 75-1 (finished 2nd in the Southwest)
Courting, 90-1 (entered in the Risen Star)
Chip Honcho, 90-1 (entered in the Risen Star)
If one of those last two go on to win the Risen Star (which is doubtful) those big odds will drop like a ton of bricks.
…..Prat likely agreed on the Saidi trip, earlier….it’s a huge money pot…..I think Brown and Prat are good, I’m not so certain about Nysos winning The Saudi Cup, but he is a good horse, only loss was by a neck, off a 13 minute nth layoff….it’s the Risen Star and Saudi Cup—-is that still a $20 million race? Plus there are other big purses out there, and the world’s best jockeys….I expect to see Prat, and Irad over there, in fact I like Irad’s mount Nevada Beach….
He most likely gets 2nd money in a $20 million race. If Paladin runs well, I don’t think Chad will not give him back. Pratt is his go to rider at the moment. If he does not give him back, I am pretty sure he finds a good horse for the Derby.
This is “one of those years”, I harken back to 2012, where you could make a case for many colts …your weekly column is of much value! I’m baffled! I’ve made three tiny futures wagers, (total of $9)……I’m not sure if one of them is on the trail, I’ve no confidence in ANY three year olds, this year! A “gut” feeling that Bob will be a player, this year—no idea with which colt—will be glued to your postings, and awaiting the PRO VET’s annual input—it’s “one of those years”, I did hit that 2012 Derby, after watching I’ll Have Another work….I’d love to have another like that!….
Hello Steve – The derby trail is really heating up now. The Risen Star ⭐️ is the begin of the win and your in derby trail preps with 50 going to the winner. I’m hopeful for a Star performance coming in the Risen Star ⭐️ by Paladin. Paladin drew perfectly from PP4 where he should get a sweet stalking trip until Tyler sends him for the lead at the top of the stretch . I respect Golden Tempo, but he is a deep closer and Paladin being tactical will be long gone to be able to reel him in the stretch. I will single Paladin in my P5 and will use him on top of my TRI bet that I will make. As I’m typing this I’m proud to say that the Cavs just beat Denver on the road as they look to make a serious run at the NBA title this year. I $50 at 25-1 on the Cavs to win the NBA Championship a couple of weeks ago when they demolished the Lakers and we’re on a 5 game winning streak. The Cavs are very dangerous with newly acquired James Harden who is fitting in perfectly with Donovan Mitchell and Jarret Allen. When Mobley comes back soon, the Cavs will be even better. I live in the CLE area, and am very proud of the Cavs. GO CAVS!
Last I saw they were favorite to win the East.
A legend passed ….as a younger man in the 70s…there were King Leatherbury and Dale Baird, winning so many races, on the smaller circuits …
Hi Steve
Thank you for providing another in-depth analysis on your top Derby prospects. I was delighted to see three Into Mischief colts in your top seven.
I’m looking forward to the Risen Star and the matchup between Paladine and Golden Tempo. I’ll go out on a very shacky limb and go with Golden Tempo for the win. I’ve got a gut feeling that this Curlin colt has all the makings of a serious contender on the Derby trail. Golden Tempo’s trainer, Cherie DeVaux, is highly regarded as an up-and-coming top trainer. With respect to the riders, I would give the edge to Jose Ortiz over Tyler Gaffalione.
May the best horse win the Risen Star.
Safe trips to all.
Edit: Steve, I meant to add a few words on So Happy, the winner of the G2 San Vincente. He rated beautifully off a torrid pace, (22:03, 43.56, 1:08.41) before drawing off by 2 lengths in an excellent time of 1:21.12. Yesterday, he worked 4 furlongs in 47.80 (2/56).
I noticed he didn’t appear in this week’s Derby Rankings. Just wondering if you’re waiting to see how he performs in his next start, before we see him again in your Derby Rankings?
Thanks, Steve.
Im waiting to see where they run him. Do they want to try the Derby trail or look to races like the Pat Day. Hard ro mention every horse every week.
Thanks for the reply, Steve
Word has it that So Happy’s connections will point him to the San Felipe, although that could change.
I completely agree that you can’t mention every horse every week.
Many thanks for all you do, it’s much appreciated.
Steve,
I wish I can forgive you so easily on this slip up and just chalk it up as a senior moment ( I’m sure Bill and I can attest to having a few of those ourselves) but this is the 2nd time it has happen this year and to the same horse.
Now I know he is on the West Coast and you live on the East Coast (out of sight out of mind) , and he is trained by a trainer whose last name does not begin with Baffert, Pletcher, Brown or Mott, and who is ridden by a jockey some feel has seen better days but he is one of 2 active jockeys that has ridden a horse to a triple crown in the last 50 years. And although he wasn’t thought of much when he broke his maiden race at odds 38 to 1 and then he went on to win a 7 furlong stakes race that was once regarded as a coveted West Coast prep race for the Kentucky Derby in a sub 1:22 time but again I just can’t dismiss your excuse of ….. “Hard to mention every horse every week”.
So Steve, if you are willing to give us a “Mea Culpa” here you will be forgiven but your penance will be severe as you will be forced to read the entire novel of the latest “Fifty shades of Grey” when it is finally published and released sometime in the future. It’s authors too numerous to mention them all but here is a sampling of some of them…. Native Dancer, Spectacular Bid, Winning Colors, Cozzene, Silver Charm, Tapit. I know this is a tough penance for redemption but I am sure you somehow will persevere.
Otherwise Steve, I don’t quite agree with your KD list this week as I would have Renegade ahead of Nearly and Plutarch ahead of Litmus Test but again it is “your” list.
Have great week and we’ll see if there is a surprise in the Risen Star this weekend.
Relax – it was a 7 furlong race.
Don’t sweat the small stuff, Downer.
Curios! Who is on your list?
Holy cow, Steve, you covered just about every horse on the Derby trail this week. So glad you included Emerging Market and Powershift right at the top of KOTD. I totally missed that race on the Tampa Bay card, but just watched the replay tonight.
Why shouldn’t a first out winner (or even a brilliantly fast maiden) debuting in February make an impact on the Derby, or even win it? As we know, It’s happened before. While some Derby-worthy horses have emerged this season, many more have made fitful progress, or are not making enough progress to really be in the conversation. I say, more power to the horses that can run.
A masterful column, as is your standard. Many thanks for taking the time to do this!
Thanks Ms B. It means squeezing in 3 races in a short period of time with no 2yo foundation. When these start so late it usually means they had to deal with a physical problem. Sure it can be done if youre Justify and at least get to debut in January but February 7 is getting late. And let’s not forget how many times Justify started after the Belmont. It takes a toll on a young horse to rush them like that. We’ll see what they do.
Completely agree Mr. Haskin regarding rushing young horses. As you mentioned Justify,when rushed, almost always has an effect.
Justify was lame at the walk the Sunday after the Derby & I didn’t buy the scratches excuse. Looks like after all was said and done I was wise not to..
Without a doubt he was lame. Pushed.
I know, I know. Read that Emerging Market had pneumonia last year, so it’s pretty remarkable he was able to run as fast as he did when he broke his maiden.
Steve:
I wanted to thank you for your initial write-up re Silent Tactic: Thay was why I added him at 100-1 to my Derby Futures stable. I only had $17 available at the time, but glad I have at least a small position. He went all the way down to 18-1 before I had more money available after the SB…I am very much looking forward to the Risen Star to see how Golden Tempo does, and also to see how Blackout Time fares in the Rebel…
Happy to hear it. Thats great. And good luck with all your wagers.
Thanks, Steve!
Steve, I much appreciated your insights re Secured Freedom as he intrigues me. Also got a good chuckle when I read your comment about Talk To Me Jimmy and his half brothers!
Steve, your thorough insights are top notch as always. As I see some promising horses finish in arrears in these prep races, I wonder about the Virginia Derby as a soft landing spot. Last year, American Promise and Render Judgment flew under the radar to earn Derby points when no one was looking. I wonder if horses like Cannoneer, Liberty National, and Desert Code might fit in that spot?
Also haven’t heard from the promising Mob, who I thought could be the next Owen Almighty for Lynch.
Thank you. Races like the Virginia Derby add a new element and a new opportunity.
Lol. Thanks . You gotta love it when horses like that come along.