2026 Kentucky Derby Rankings – Week 5
With so little separating most of the 3-year-olds this year and no big standouts, we are increasing the number of ranked horses to 20 this week, especially with a slow weekend coming up before the make-or-break last weekend in February, with the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream and Gotham at Aqueduct on Saturday the 28th and the Rebel at Oaklawn on Sunday March 1. ~ Steve Haskin
Derby Rankings: February 16, 2026 – Week 5
By Steve Haskin
1. Paladin (Chad Brown, Gun Runner — Secret Sigh, by Tapit)
Whew! That got a little hairy for a while. At the eighth pole of the Risen Star Stakes, it was “Now who am I gonna put No. 1?” At the sixteenth pole, it was, “Wait, he’s got a shot.” And then came that moment about 20 yards from the wire when it was, “He’s got it!” So, now that he secured his place on top and even raised the status of last year’s adversary Renegade, it’s time to take a closer look at what we saw, especially since some will question his close finish against an opponent who really wasn’t high on anyone’s list of contenders. Chip Honcho had scored a so-so victory in the Gun Runner Stakes before finishing third in the LeComte Stakes, in which he had a wide trip. His speed figures had been slow, but in a year that hasn’t seen many fast speed figures, Chip Honcho has proven to be a solid performer and had a pair of two-turn stakes over the track with every chance to steal the Risen Star by getting an uncontested lead on a speed-favoring track. And he did finish 5 1/2 lengths in front of his LeComte conqueror Golden Tempo in third. So he was a legitimate threat under the circumstances, especially considering Paladin hadn’t run in 2 1/2 months and went right into a 1 1/8-mile race. Paladin again showed his grit and will to win, by running his third quarter in a strong :23 3/5 to keep pace with the leader and then was relentless in the stretch, running him down with a swift :12 1/5 final eighth. He obviously appreciated Fair Grounds’ long stretch, which he will get again at Churchill Downs. So all in all this was an excellent comeback effort, and having only two preps this year after only two starts last year this was the kind of tough race he needed. We already know he loves a good battle, there is no pressure to get points, and now he can use his next race to keep moving forward toward a peak performance on the first Saturday in May.
2. Renegade (Todd Pletcher, Into Mischief — Spice is Nice, by Curlin)
Well, Renegade boosted the reputation of Paladin with his emphatic victory in the Sam F. Davis Stakes and helped elevate his rival to the top of the Rankings. And now it was Paladin who returned the favor by winning the Risen Star Stakes and in this case moving his rival up to No 2. I’m not sure Todd Pletcher would agree with moving Renegade ahead of his impressive Holy Bull winner Nearly, who zoomed to the top of many lists. But for now it’s nice to have a potential rivalry, with Renegade still out to prove he deserved that maiden victory in which he was disqualified. At this point I am going to lean ever so slightly toward Renegade for No. 2, as he has been the stronger closer. While Nearly got a slow 78 Brisnet late pace figure in the Holy Bull with those :27 and :07 closing fractions, Renegade got an outstanding 111 late pace figure on Brisnet, making a big sweeping move from eighth with a brilliant :23 3/5 third quarter, followed by a :24 1/5 quarter, and coming home a shade under :06. Nearly looks like he could be the more talented of the two and definitely is a major Derby contender who could wind up No. 1 after the Florida Derby, but for now we’re going to keep Paladin and Renegade as close together as possible to enhance the storyline and hope they can keep their rivalry going into the Derby.
3. Nearly (Todd Pletcher, Not This Time — Ib Prospector, by Mineshaft)
He’s back working, breezing a sharp half in :48 3/5. Warning, you are about to be bombarded with speed ratings. As we mentioned, he could easily be No. 1. With no electrifying performances by anyone in the major preps and no one scaling the speed ratings ladder, it’s been about who has been seen last in the winner’s circle. With Nearly, there are still a few questions despite his winning his last three starts all by big margins and passing his first two-turn test in the Holy Bull with flying colors. We turn to Thoro-Graph and after running a spectacular “1” in his allowance romp, he figured to regress in the Holy Bull and did, to a “5.” So does he regress again in the Florida Derby after two months off or does he start moving far enough forward to get back close to that “1?” His Brisnet figures are even more perplexing in a way. His speed figures show an excellent pattern, climbing from a 91 to a 97 to a 99, and his early and middle pace figures of 109 and 117 in the Holy Bull were sensational. But then there was the eyesore that was his late pace figure of 78, which obviously indicates a horse slowing down considerably, as his closing fractions indicate. No horse can be expected to run a fast closing figure after such a blazing middle figure, and he really wasn’t being asked in the stretch, but if he is going to be the favorite or one of the favorites for the Derby, you don’t want his speed and pace figures to be all over the place. In short, his speed, talent, running style, and pedigree make him a major force. We just have to wait to see whether or not the Florida Derby solidifies his status as one of the Kentucky Derby favorites.
4. Litmus Test (Bob Baffert, Nyquist — Study Hard, by Malibu Moon)
Could it be this colt is starting to get bored after two months of waiting for some action? He had the dubious distinction of being entered for the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn for two solid weeks and then finding out he wasn’t really intended to run. Then there were thoughts of running him in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, but those thoughts didn’t last long, and he was back to the original plan of sitting around until the March 7 San Felipe Stakes. In the meantime, he relieved some of the boredom by working a bullet half-mile in :47 2/5 last week, fastest of 33 works at the distance. While he’s been away, one of his stablemates, Plutarch, won the Lewis and moved closer to the top of the Baffert Brigade, while several others moved farther down the ranks, and the other vacationers, like Brant and Boyd, continued on their road back. How many will collide head-on with Litmus Test and how many will skip town? Those are all the questions that are still to be answered in the Baffert barn. We have to keep reminding ourselves that, in a year of very thin resumes, this colt has run five times, has never been off the board, was beaten only 1 3/4 lengths by 2-year-old champion Ted Noffey, has been ridden by four different jockeys, and has three 1 1/16-mile races, all Grade 1 or 2 stakes, under his belt. Oh, yes, his sire won the Kentucky Derby and his dam’s sire sired a Kentucky Derby winner. With all those credentials, better to keep him in bubble wrap than risk having the bubble burst early.
5. Silent Tactic (Mark Casse, Tacitus — Magical Sign, by Gun Runner)
For a horse who is only going to get better the farther he runs, you have to love his Thoro-Graph pattern. You can’t put too much stock in speed figures on a synthetic surface, so his pairing up “10’s” in his first two starts over Woodbine’s Tapeta track was acceptable. Then came an “8” in his dirt debut in the Smarty Jones Stakes followed by another move forward, this time by 3 1/2 points in the Southwest Stakes. That “4 1/2” puts him in a good position to be right in the Derby wheelhouse on the first Saturday in May, especially considering Casse is convinced he will relish the longer distances. His pedigree certainly suggests that with his grandsires being Tapit and Gun Runner and his inbreeding to A.P. Indy and Unbridled, and Seattle Slew three times. You love to see those steady three- to four-point Thoro-Graph jumps while looking stronger visually each time. And that, along with his pedigree and running style, makes him a horse that should be peaking at the right time. For the Beyer followers, however, I’m sure they want to see his speed ratings get out of the 70s and 80s, with a career-best 88 in the Southwest.
6. Commandment (Brad Cox, Into Mischief — Sippican Harbor, by Orb)
The running style is there, the pedigree is there, and his closing punch packs quite a wallop. Visually, he is one the exciting horses to watch, as he keeps building up momentum and lengthening his stride the farther he runs. He worked five furlongs in 1:02 3/5 at Payson Park and is right on schedule for the February 28 Fountain of Youth Stakes, which at this point is not looking like a strong or a large field, with the one-two finishers of the Holy Bull, Nearly and Wayne’s Law, waiting for the Florida Derby. A lot will depend on where Napoleon Solo goes. Remember, Commandment has not beaten any proven horses yet, so even though he has the look of a top-class colt and certainly could be a major force on the Derby trail, he still hasn’t shown how he stacks up against quality stakes horses. What he does have in his favor is a solid Thoro-Graph pattern, going from a “12” to an “8 1/4” to a “5 1/2,” and his 91 Beyer figure in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes was a 10-point jump from his maiden victory, as was his 86 to 96 jump on Brisnet. So all the signs are positive, but he still has to pass that all-important class test.
7. Plutarch (Bob Baffert, Into Mischief — Stellar Wind, by Curlin)
Looking at Baffert’s Derby contenders and their intended targets, it appears right now that all the big races are accounted for except the Wood Memorial, and although Baffert hasn’t committed to anything he says that could be a good spot for him. This is a colt who looks like he would handle the deeper surface at Aqueduct. He has been a fascinating horse to follow, going back and forth from grass to dirt, as Baffert has been struggling for a while to find distance races for him. In six career starts, he has four races at a mile, one at 1 1/16 miles, and one at 1 1/8 miles. After running in two grass stakes and a Grade 1 dirt stakes, and never finishing out of the money, it took at 1 1/8-mile race on grass to get him to finally break his maiden., But here is the key to this colt and his speed ratings. In his three grass starts his Beyers were a pedestrian 75, 75, and 78. But in his three dirt starts, he’s run a 79, 86, and 90. Now this isn’t earth-shattering, and he still does need to get faster there and on Thoro-Graph, but his 98 Brisnet figure in the American Pharoah and 94 in the Robert Lewis, shows he does have speed. He just has to come home faster. With his explosive turn of foot from well off the pace combined with his ability to beat top-class horses battling on the lead, I’m seeing a very versatile and adaptable colt with a number of ways to beat you. If he is only a fraction as talented as his dam and grandsire he should only keep getting better.
8. Napoleon Solo (Chad Summers, Liam’s Map — Atomic Blonde, by Scat Daddy)
He is the most difficult horse to rank because his ceiling is so high and he hasn’t begun climbing yet. He’s progressing quickly, working five furlongs in a solid 1:01 2/5. Because of the possibility of him having superstar potential I was seriously considering moving him way up this week. But I decided to wait until Summers decides where to run him, and that has to come shortly. The choices are the one-mile Gotham and 1 1/16-mile Fountain of Youth, both on Feb. 28. The Gotham is a good spot for him to display his sensational speed and he would seem near unbeatable if he’s the same horse we saw last year, but it won’t tell us any more about him than we already know. The Fountain of Youth at two turns would likely tell us if he is a true Derby contender and not a one-turn dynamo. As we’ve mentioned, his time in the one-mile Champagne was the second fastest in the 158-year history of the race, one-fifth off Devil’s Bag’s stakes record, and equaled the time of Seattle Slew. In fact, his time was faster than three of the last five runnings of the Met Mile and faster than both of Forego’s Met Mile victories and the victories of Kelso, Buckpasser, Native Dancer, Tom Fool, and Gallant Man. Not bad for a 2-year-old. And let’s not forget the foundation he has despite running only twice. He was turning in huge works on a regular basis two months before he even started. He worked a half in :47 3/5 from the gate over the deep Belmont training track, second-fastest of 100 works at the distance. A week later he worked a bullet half at Saratoga in :48 flat, fastest of 31 works, and then followed that a week later with a :47 4/5 work from the gate. So it shouldn’t have been a surprise when he won his debut by 5 1/4 lengths. Now all he has to do is tell us who he is. I know I’m excited to find out.
9. Further Ado (Brad Cox, Gun Runner — Sky Dreamer, by Sky Mesa)
He is another with whom we’re really not that familiar if you go by his fluctuating speed figures. We have seen his two mediocre maiden sprint races followed by a monster 20-length romp going two turns, in which his Brisnet speed figures jumped 15 points and his Beyer figures jumped 29 points. But in his stakes debut in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, which he won by 1 3/4 lengths, his Beyer regressed 16 points, while his Brisnet number regressed only six points. Most glaring was his Brisnet late pace figure plummeting from a 98 to a 78. If you’re not totally confused by now, his brilliant “negative-1” Thoro-Graph number in his maiden race regressed to a “5 1/4” in the Kentucky Jockey Club. So, once again, who is the real Further Ado? The Kentucky Jockey Club runner-up, Universe has been a disapointment in his two starts this year, but I believe Soldier N Diplomat, the horse who battled with him down the stretch, is one of the dark horses to watch. So all that adds up to one big question, which will not be answered until the Tampa Bay Derby. He definitely deserves to be ranked and considered a serious Derby horse, but just how serious we’ll have to wait and see.
10. Blackout Time (Kenny McPeek, Not This Time — Beauty Parlor, by Elusive Quality)
A tongue-in-cheek message to Kenny McPeek: When you were asked on your podcast if Universe was your best 3-year-old, and you replied, “I think it’s Blackout Time,” you really didn’t mean to use the word “think” did you? It’s a no-brainer, right? OK, just having some fun there. I have liked everything I’ve seen from this classy-looking colt, and if wasn’t for a vet scratch the morning of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile he might very well be the 2-year-old champion. That is if he’s as talented as I think he is and was ready to turn the tables on Ted Noffey. He is back working steadily and I loved his five-furlong work last week, as he sat about a length off the New York-bred Gaming Wizard, on the outside. He easily collared the workmate nearing the top of the stretch and blew right by him to finish about four lengths in front in a bullet 1:00 flat. While Gaming Wizard is far from a world beater, he did break his maiden going a mile at Aqueduct last fall by 13 1/2 lengths. I would hope that get’s Blackout Time off the vet’s list. He has a beautiful way of moving and just has the look of a quality horse. He is going to get a big test in the Rebel Stakes March 1 against several top-quality horses. If he can beat or at least run huge against the likes of Silent Tactic, Brant, Class President, and several other proven colts, then he will launch himself right up near the top and even vie for favoritism. McPeek’s other top horses, Universe and Liberty National, have underachieved lately, so there is a lot riding on Blackout Time.
11. Brant (Bob Baffert, Gun Runner — Tynan, by Liam’s Map)
It seems as if he has come around a bit quicker than Baffert thought, and he obviously is now ready to hit the Derby trail big-time by traveling to Oaklawn for the Rebel Stakes against a stacked field. He worked six furlongs in 1:14, and although it looked good visually, and I loved the way he cut the corner and hugged the rail on the gallop-out, that is not your typical Baffert time, and not the kind of times he put up last year when he was working in 1:11 and change. But have no fear, as Baffert said he was just cruising and he didn’t want him working fast. I just have no idea how far he wants to go. I thought he ran great in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and gave Ted Noffey quite a fight in the stretch before giving way in the final sixteenth and just losing second by a half-length at the wire. His Brisnet speed figures of 96, 98, and 102 stack up against anyone. His Beyer numbers closely resemble his Thoro-Graph pattern. After a super 101 Beyer in his career debut, he’s been working back toward that number with a 91 and 95. On Thoro-Graph, he debuted with a monster “2 1/2” and has been working back toward that number with a “6” and a “5 1/2.” But once again he just has to show he can carry his speed classic distances, and we should get a good idea of what he’s capable of when he tries again for that important first two-turn victory,
12. Chip Honcho (Steve Asmussen, Connect — Miss My Rose, by Magician)
Many questioned the quality of his victory in the Gun Runner Stakes and the local horses in general. But his gallant second in the Risen Star Stakes to Paladin did prove a couple of things. It did demonstrate the importance of pairing up career-best numbers on Thoro-Graph, as he improved from a “10” to a “7 1/2” in the Gun Runner and then paired up that number in the LeComte with a less than ideal trip, suggesting that another forward move was expected in the Risen Star. His performance also demonstrated how brave horses can get when they are on an uncontested lead, as he was in the Risen Star. And he wasn’t even considered a frontrunner, as the only race in which he went to the front was his maiden victory in the mud at Churchill Downs. Now, he’s certainly not considered a fast horse by any means judging by all his speed figures, but he is a tough, honest colt who is always right there, and I would expect new career-best speed figures for the Risen Star in all the speed ratings. With Paladin running a 93 Beyer, his has to be right there, which would be a big improvement. It is also encouraging that he was able to sustain his speed stretching out to 1 1/8 miles, especially with the abundance of stamina in his male and female family. And the 5 1/2-length gap to Golden Tempo in third further suggests this was a legitimate race. Now we’ll see how he continues to progress going 1 3/16 miles in the Louisiana Derby.
13. Soldier N Diplomat (Steve Asmussen, Army Mule — Diplomatic Miss, by Violence)
To demonstrate how much better his Southwest was than it looked, despite getting beat 3 1/4 lengths, he got the same Thoro-Graph number as the victorious Silent Tactic. That was a jump of three points from the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. After some up and down numbers, what he needs to do now is at least pair up his “4 1/2,” or better still move forward off it. If he does then he should be off and running, but it won’t be easy facing what looks to be the deepest Derby prep yet in the Rebel Stakes March 1. As I alluded to last week, all those around this colt from the time he was a baby, through the sales, and after arriving at Asmussen’s barn, have felt he was something special. Who am I to argue? When he sold as a 2-year-old he attracted the St. Elias team with not only the time (:10) of his breeze, but how effortlessly he did it and what a beautiful mover he was. What still attracts everyone is his great mind and how honest he is, giving everything he has every race. The St. Elias team know a good horse, and they were, and still are, very excited about him. The unfortunate part is that his dam died from colic in 2025 in foal to Belmont and Travers winner Arcangelo. If you’re looking for something exciting in his pedigree, how about the fact that Secretarat appears five times through all four of his influential daughters — Weekend Surprise, Terlingua, Sister Dot, and Secrettame, who appears twice with the inbreeding of her son Gone West.
14. Class President (Todd Pletcher, Uncle Mo – Top Quality, by Quality Road)
I am returning him to the Rankings because he is running in the Rebel Stakes on March 1 and there are a number of ranked horses heading there as well, which means this race is going to play a major role in determining who the true Derby contenders are. If he can come off a sprint and only two lifetime starts and compete with the likes of Silent Tactic, Brant, Blackout Time, and perhaps a back-to-form Strategic Risk, then he has to be considered one of the Derby favorites. Also, imagine having him at 75-1 in the Future Wager. So, expect these ranked horses to either ascend or descend dramatically after this race. I saw enough in his two starts to rank him fairly high, despite having dropped back into a sprint, because I felt that his strength will be in the longer races, and running second to a classy undefeated speedball like Solitude Dude will only sharpen him up for his two-turn stakes debut. In addition, when he broke his maiden going a mile, he defeated his stablemate Easterly by 3 1/4 lengths, and Easterly came back to break his maiden by 2 3/4 lengths going 1 1/16 miles on February 7. And Easterly now heads for the Louisiana Derby, giving WinStar a three-headed monster competing on three fronts.
15. Jackson Hole (Todd Pletcher, Nyquist — Spa Treatment, by Bernardini)
If we’re putting Class President back on the Rankings we have to put Jackson Hole as well. The reason they are running him in the Fountain of Youth and not Class President is that he is coming off an allowance victory at Fair Grounds and they don’t want to ship him out of town again. As I said two weeks ago, this colt checks off all boxes visually and has a look of class about him. He combines athleticism with a smooth fluid stride and runs perfectly straight down the stretch. I don’t put him up there with Class President just yet because his Thoro-Graph numbers of “13 1/4” and “10” need a lot of improvement. But I do know that Flavien Prat seems to like this colt a lot and never went to the crop in his last race and just hand rode him to the wire before galloping out far ahead of the field. WinStar obviously likes him, having paid $1.3 million for him as a yearling, I am also intrigued by the fact that he has Dr. Fager four times in his pedigree.
16. Secured Freedom (Tim Yakteen, Practical Joke — Securely, by Uncle Mo)
Yakteen said he came out of the Robert Lewis Stakes in excellent shape and the San Felipe Stakes is on the table right now. He will work him next weekend and take it from there. You had to figure he was going to regress speed-wise going from a rapidly run sprint stakes, in which he leaped from “10 1/2” to a “2 3/4” on Thoro-Graph, to his first two-turn race against a field of proven Derby contenders, including three Baffert horses. And he did regress, but what is important is the fact that his “5 3/4” was not only a solid number, it pretty much equaled the number of the victorious Plutarch, who got a “5 1/4, which was a huge jump forward for him. And remember, Secured Freedom was beaten four lengths by two graded stakes winners with plenty of two-turn experience. For him to finish that far behind them and still get basicaly the same Thoro-Graph number coming off only two sprints shows just what a strong race he ran, and there is no reason to think he won’t keep improving with this race behind him. At 61-1 in the Future Wager, I find him very intriguing.
17. Golden Tempo (Cherie DeVaux, Curlin — Carrumba, by Bernardini)
You certainly can’t hold his third-place finish in the Risen Star Stakes against him. He was facing his best opponent by far in Paladin, and he had already beaten Chip Honcho in the LeComte Stakes. With his running style he is always going to be pace dependent, and having Chip Honcho out there on an uncontested lead put him at a big disadvantage. Also, this was only his third career start, so when Paladin and Chip Honcho pulled well clear of the field, he did all he could to get third. The problem with the Fair Grounds 3-year-olds this year is that none of them have run fast speed figures, so we really don’t know how good they are. I admit I was looking for bigger improvement stretching out to 1 1/8 miles, but he will have another chance in the 1 3/16-mile Louisiana Derby, and you know he is going to be closing. So we will keep him ranked and wait for the Thoro-Graph numbers to see just what kind of pattern he is on.
18. Intrepido (Jeff Mullins, Maximus Mischief — Overly Indulgent, by Pleasantly Perfect)
As if it wasn’t difficult enoufgh trying to figure out all the 3-year-olds back east, good luck with the California horses. We’re heading into late February and the consensus big horse out there has two wins in five starts and is still weeks away from his debut. Intrepido looks solid enough and does have a Grade 1 victory, but we’re still waiting for that big breakout race from him. His career can be assessed through his Thoro-Graph numbers, which are frustrating in a way. After moving forward from a “9” to a “6 1/4,” he’s run a “7 1/4” and a “6 1/4.” As we said, these are all solid numbers, but they’re not really going anywhere. It’s been the same with his Beyer figures, which began with a 78, and now after five races has reached an 89. As with his Thoro-Graph numbers you just want see that big jump forward to at least put him in position to be considered a major Derby contender, and he has only one more race to do that. This is isn’t about talent. For the most part he has shown he shown good tactical speed, whether on or just off the pace. We’ll just have to see if he can build on his game second in the Robert Lewis and show what he is capable of.
19. Bravaro (Saffie Joseph Jr., Upstart — Opera Star, by Tamarkuz)
Finishing second, even by 5 3/4 lengths, to Nearly in the Holy Bull Stakes, certainly qualifies him to be ranked in the top 20, probably even the top 15. Coming off two victories against New York-breds, including an impressive 2 1/2-length score in the one-mile Sleepy Hollow Stakes, you have to give him credit traveling down to Gulfstream against one of the hottest colts in the country and several other proven horses, and run as big a race as he did, tracking a fast pace in third and continuing strong through the stretch, finishing almost three length ahead of the third horse, with the highly regarded Cannoneer and Street Sense Stakes winner Incredibolt out of the money. His sire Upstart was best between a mile and 1 1/8 miles and broodmare sire Tamarkuz won the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile and Godolphin Mile. But it is important to note that both those horses have tons of stamina, especially in their female family. The question now is can he take it another step forward. If he runs in the Fountain oif Youth he won’t have Nearly to deal with this time.
20, Talk to Me Jimmy (Rudy Rodriguez, Modernist — Prairie Trip, by Trippi)
We obviously have idea how good this colt is or he beat in the Withers Stakes, but when you break your maiden by 5 1/2 lengths in a sharp 1:35 1/5 for the mile and then demolish open stakes company by 11 lengths going 1 1/8 miles on the lead the whole way you have to be taken seriously. With his Beyer figures increasing from 50 to 73 to 83 and with the addition of blinkers in his last two victories, it certainly looks like this is a vastly improving horse. Not bad for a $31,000 yearling that Rodrigues snatched out of the final lots of the Keeneland September as Hip#4231. This after failing to meet his $24,000 reserve as a weanling. Now we just wait for the Wood Memorial, where he tries to earn his way into the Kentucky Derby as one of the more interesting stories.
KNOCKING ON THE DOOR
If you think the Risen Star Stakes was the race of the week you couldn’t be more wrong. The race of the YEAR was the Sunland Derby won by Paul Reddam’s PAVLOVIAN, trained by Doug O’Neill. Yes, he was dead game and courageous running down the even-money favorite EXPRESS KID, impressive winner of the Springboard Mile, to win by a nose right on the wire. But the reason it was the race of the year to one person was because Pavlovian’s dam Mandy’s Grace was named after my daughter Mandy. Reddam wanted to name a horse after me, but I asked him to name one after my daughter, and because she was such a beautiful, graceful ballet dancer I suggested the name Mandy’s Grace. And if that wasn’t special enough, Mandy’s Grace broke her maiden at Oaklawn Park the same day Mandy gave birth to her first child, Theo. Now here was Mandy’s Grace’s son winning the $500,000 Sunland Derby exactly one week before Theo’s 8th birthday.
OK, now back to the real world. AL HARAM? Yes, this undefeated winner of the Saudi Derby is headed for the UAE Derby, where a big effort would likely send him to Kentucky. If this was a U.S.-trained colt we would have to consider him a legitimate Derby horse based on his big run from the back of the large field to win going away and getting stronger every step down that long stretch. Although you probably never heard of most of the horses in his first two generations, he does have a number of top-class U.S. influences in his pedigree. What is a bit ironic about his victory is that the runner-up OBLITERATION, is trained by Steve Asmussen, whose brother Cash rode Al Haram’s maternal great-great grandsire Suave Dancer to victory in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe.
With none of the Japanese horses in the Saudi Derby looking like potential Derby horses, we’ll see if the undefeated listed stakes winner PYROMANCER, who is 3-for-3, can earn his way with a big effort in the UAE Derby, coming off a layoff of over three months. And keep an eye out for potential Japanese Kentucky Derby horses in the February 22 Hyacinth Stakes at Tokyo Race Course, with 30 points to the winner.
In fact, there will be several other foreign Derby preps coming up, starting with the Dubai Road to the Kentucky Derby Stakes at Meydan on February 20. And five days later there is the Road to the Kentucky Derby Condition Stakes at Kempton Race Course in England. Both are worth 20 points to the winner.,
In the U.S. the only prep is the Battaglia Memorial at Turfway Park, where we’ll see horses trying to pick up points via the synthetic route, which actually has been pretty successful the last few years. Winstar, who already has three major preps covered, will be represented by the Brad Cox-trained KILO TANGO, who in three starts has run on a sloppy dirt track, the grass, and the synthetic surface at Turfway, where he came from 10th turning for home and five lengths back at the eighth pole to break his maiden by a half-length on January 3. Also in the field is STOP THE CAR, who we were pretty high on before he finished a disappointing seventh in the LeComte Stakes. I still believe he’s a good horse and we’ll see how he handles the Tapeta surface. One other we’ll mention is the Brad Cox-trained FULLEFFORT, owned by St. Elias Stables and Starlight Racing, who won an allowance race on the grass at Keeneland before finishing a fast-closing second to the frontrunning STEEET BEAST in the Leonatus Stakes at Turfway.
I don’t know what turned AWESOME GUN around after three poor showings, but the son of Gun Runner looked terrific breaking his maiden going 1 1/16 miles at Fair Grounds Saturday. He led all the way on the speed-favoring track, winning by 3 1/4 lengths, but his final time was right in line with the times of all the stakes that day and his :46 flat half-mile fraction was significantly faster than the Risen Star, the Mineshaft, and the Rachel Alexandra Stakes.
Although Mark Casse has no excuse for STRATEGIC RISK’S poor performance in the Southwest Stakes, he is encouraged that his rider Javier Castellano has asked to ride him back in the Rebel Stakes, and Casse emphasized the fact that he didn’t encourage Castellano in any way. So if a Kentucky Derby-winning jockey of that stature is already wanting to commit to him then that could be enough to give the colt another shot, especially how impressive he was in his two prior starts.
The undefeated BOYD turned in a sharp five-furlong in :59 4/5 on Sunday, but Bob Baffert said he has no plans for the son son Violence at this time. Boyd worked in company with the one start maiden winner POTENTE, who will make the big jump to stakes company in the San Felipe.
Several weeks ago we touted TALKIN as a very sneaky horse to keep an eye on after his disappointing race in the Remsen Stakes. The Champagne runner-up has been working steady half-miles at Prairie Meadows and will work again this week, after which trainer Danny Gargan will choose between the Fountain of Youth, Gotham, and Tampa Bay Derby for his first start back.
Another Oaklawn horse who has been inconsistent, but has displayed enough talent to keep an eye on is RANCHO SANTA FE, whose Thoro-Graph numbers have bounced up and up with each race like the proverbial Yo-Yo. He has alternated slow two-digit numbers with a “6 3/4” and “6 1/2,” and if he can pair up that last “6 1/2” he might be on to something.
Some of the one-race wonders who obviously are way behind were on the work tab, with ENGLISHMAN going a half in :48 4/5 at Fair Grounds, CHIEF WALLABEE working a solid five furlongs in 1:02 2/5 at Payson Park, and CANALETTO working a half in a sharp :49, also at Payson Park. Two others, EMERGING MARKET and POWERSHIFT, who put on quite a show in their one-two finish maiden finish, received a “5 1/2” and “5 1/4” Thoro-Graph number, respectively, with a slight edge to the runner-up. If you are inclined to bet on horses with one start going into March, Emerging Market was 42-1 in the Future Wager, while Powershift was 69-1.
Speaking of the Future Wager, there are two horses who closed at 30-1 and 32-1 and will be a great deal shorter with victories in their next start in two weeks, possibly even the favorite. They are Napoleon Solo and Blackout Time, the two horses I still feel have star potential. But both have to overcome issues at 2 and show the same brilliance they showed last year.
Racing historian, author, and award-winning retired journalist for the Daily Racing Form and The Blood-Horse, Steve Haskin was inducted into the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame’s Media Roll of Honor in 2016. Known for his racing knowledge and insightful prose, he has been an exclusive contributor to Secretariat.com since 2020.
In Derby Futures Pool 4, I wheeled Plutarch, with all, in a $2.00 exacta wager.
Best case scenario, Plutarch wins the Derby and Solitude Dude finishes 2nd.
My $2.00 exacta would pay $11,914.00. Pipe dream? Probably.
It may be a pipe dream Bill but it’s soooooo fun to have something like that to root for!!! Good luck!!
Thanks, Bruce
Another nice payout in my Pool 4 exacta wager, would be Soldier N Diplomat finishing 2nd to Plutarch, which would pay $11,648. Steve has Soldier N Diplomat ranked at #13 in Week 5. Fingers crossed. 🙂
Good luck to you as well.
Will Napoleon Solo be the morning line favorite in the FOY? Probably.
I suspect that Commandment will be the 2nd favorite, closely followed by Solitude Dude as the 3rd favorite. After reviewing the video replay of Commandment’s MMM win, and the way he galloped out, leads me to believe he’ll relish the Classic distance.
That said, I’m starting to have second thoughts on using Solitude Dude as my top choice. If Napoleon Solo were to scratch out of the FOY, and head north for the Gotham, it would make things a lot easier to handicap a superfecta wager.
I would key Commandment and Solitude Dude on top, in the first two slots, with Jackson Hole, Rockies Balboa, Bravaro and Chief Wallabee underneath in the 3rd and 4th slots. That is: 4,10/ 4,10/ 1,2,5,6/ 1,2,5,6
In addition, I would flip that over, just in case one of the underneath horses should spring an upset. That is: 1,2,5,6/ 4,10/ 4,10/ 1,2,5,6.
If Napoleon Solo does not scratch out of the FOY, I’ll box those three in a fairly large trifecta wager.
Safe trips to all.
Very logic bet and good coverage as usual Bill… I would wait for the final field to prepare my combinations.
Regarding going to New York, considering the heavy winter storm coming tonight and tomorrow there [which took the weather forecaster by surprise] I would stay out of the North Eastern areas for the whole week at least…
Napoleon Solo should remain in the FoY if you go by Chad Summers saying earlier that running there would depend on the Post Position and the field size… and both are very favorable.
Not sure if there will be more scratches in the FoY but Talkin could go to the Gotham (with Kendrik Carmouche) or the Tampa Bay Derby. Bravaro was scratched from the Rebel and will contest the FoY.
Tinks are getting serious in the trail next week…
Thanks for the reply, Nelson
You’re absolutely right, based on the current weather conditions in the Northeast, it wouldn’t make a lot of sense to ship Napoleon Solo for the Gotham. As it stands now, I’ll just box NS, SD and Commandment in a fairly large trifecta wager.
Good luck with your wagers in the FOY.
Agree with you both looks more than likely weather will keep him in the FOY….Unless he can be flown in Friday morning….. time zones are the same.
You are right, Nelson. They just upgraded the winter storm warning to a blizzard warning deep into the Hudson Valley (I live in the Catskills). At least a foot of snow on top of the crusty 8″ on the ground.
Be safe.
The wind gusts are dangerous.
I loved the track announcers call when they went into the far turn, “it’s the big boy Great White”. Upon further review looking at him he sure is a “big boy”. Congrats to the connections and all who scored at a juicy 15-1.
I think he also referenced “Once Bitten…”….words from the rock band Great White’s biggest hit….
LOL. Despite the modest field (and the complete collapse of my pick, Street Beast), Great White has legitimate potential in this year of slow speed figures on the triple crown trail. His second and fourth dams both won the Argentine Oaks, which could balance out all that speed on the sire line (Volatile and Violence).
Great White’s second dam, Birkin Bag (Elusive Quality), and fourth dam, Sweet Eternity (Effervescing), won the Grande Premio Diana (2000 meters on Turf) the second leg of the Triple Crown for fillies in Brazil… it is called the Brazilian Oaks.
It is the same Stakes won by the Brazilian mare Riboletta in 1998 before … as you may remember Riboletta went on to be champion older female in America in 2000..
As you said, those South American mares are sure source of stamina in the American Pedigrees.
Blessed are the broodmares!
Where should NAPOLEON SOLO run? My feelings are the ……. Gotham !!!
I know many in this post want him to run in the FOY and for good reason to pit him against the best 3 yr olds. But this right now is why I feel he shouldn’t.
1. He has not run a race in 5 months.
2. I would keep him on a surface he knows and won on.
3. Winning the Gotham he gets the same amount a points as the FOY and will probably face a weaker field in the Gotham. In the FOY he will be pressured every inch of the way (unless he really is Pegasus). and for what just to run another 1/16 of a mile and 2 turns. I say go the easier route
4. I like Steve’s theory of the first race as a 3 year old of running 7 furlongs. Well the Gotham isn’t 7 furlongs and just 1 furlong longer but still one turn. He will still get a lot out of the race.
5. I think the old saying of, … Can he go two turns? , is a little over rated. He jogs and gallops everyday around 2 turns I don’t think it will be a new experience for him. When he does get to a two turn race do they think he will bolt to the outside ((what a dreaded thought) when he gets to 2nd turn? Chances are he won’t.
So again the Gotham is were I think he should run. I may find more reasons as the week goes on. We will see were Summers goes with him.
Even the great Secretariat ran in the Gotham (the 7 furlong Bayshore before that) both 1 turn. Didn’t he win a Triple Crown ?!?!?
In the end it may come down to the weather on where he runs.
New York . … Rain predicted on Wednesday (70% ), Thursday (75%), Friday (25%) and Saturday ((1%). With all days temperatures in the low 40’s for the highs and freezing at night. With Friday and Saturday partly sunny.
Gulfstream pretty much clear weather except for Friday (60%) of rain with Saturday at (2%) . Temperatures ranging from the mid 70’s to low 80’s.
RE: Fountain of Youth (G2), Race #14, at GP, 2-28
1) Jackson Hole
2) Rockies Balboa
3) Talkin
4) Commandment
5) Bravaro
6) Chief Wallabee
7) Napoleon Solo
8) Bull by the Horns
9) Global Aviator
10) Solitude Dude
11) Lost Money
A very competitive field has been assembled for this very important Derby prep race.
Commandment, Napoleon Solo and Solitude Dude appear to be the top three, IMO.
There could be several scratches.
I hope Napoleon Solo is cross entered in the Gotham. See my comments above.
I’m assuming Bravaro will scratch from the Rebel because he drew the rail and he’s cross entered in the FOY from PP5 which is a good draw. This would leave the Rebel with a field of 9. Litmus Test draws the rail. Class President with JV aboard breaks from PP2. IMO the most likely winners in the Rebel are Silent Tactic who will break from PP6 if Bravaro scratches or Class President who will save ground from PP2 for the upset. CP drew inside in his impressive MSW win going 1 mile when he was tipped out in the stretch and won going away by 3 lengths. He is more tactical than Silent Tactic and can get a jump on him in the stretch. I don’t like Litmus Test with the rail draw, IMO he’s overrated. Blackout Time is coming off of a long layoff and IMO is a vulnerable favorite. I hope your reading this Dewey, I have a lot of faith in JV and CP and I believe he can finish 1 or 2 in the Rebel. CP is my 50-1 bomb from KDFW3.
Hey Joe, Iike you, I’m feeling good about the Class President’s chances in the Rebel. Breaking from the 2 post is just fine, allowing CP to save ground going into the first turn. I’m glad that Johnny V is in the irons as he is adept about judging pace and will move CP accordingly. In any event, I’m just looking for a good effort from Class President. I’ve got a feeling that our boy will be the “wise guy” horse at the windows. It’ll be interesting watching the board.. Go CP!
It’s going to be a great weekend of preps. Let me give you a heads up on Iron Honor in the Gotham. This son of Nyquist o/o a Blame mare broke his maiden at first asking on Dec. 13th at Aqueduct. The Chad Brown charge has been working smartly since then and is coming up to the Gotham in good order. I bet a tepid five spot on him at 99-1 in Pool 4, so I’m anxious to see what I’ve got?
Keep the faith, Joe!
Just found out that the actual odds on Iron Honor are 122-1. I should have bet $10, ha, ha.
I got lucky in the Battaglia today…I liked Fulleffort, and my friend touted me on the other grey Great White–who had run twice, missing the break both times—and today was always right there, just holding on, at 15-1, beating my 2-1 shot….the $2 exacta paid an extra $50, with Great White on top, and for a dime…the super paid $4700, alas, I don’t play supers! I guess these two greys will be staying, for the Jeff Ruby—
Congradulations, Mathew W.
Nice handicapping.
Thanks, it wasn’t me! I just liked the 2-1 Fulleffort, my friend texted me about Great White, who put it together yesterday…I was finishing 3rd, all day….the Battaglia exacta pulled me out of a poor day…
I agree that those are the top three. They are all on my list of Horses of Interest, but I think we have a lot to learn about all of them, and I’m anxious to see how they do against each other. I’m picking Commandment, but I don’t think the other two will be easy to beat.
Jiffy
Initially, Commandment was going to be my pick as well. However, the undefeated colt, Solitude Dude checks a lot of boxes, IMO.
Top trainer: Joseph Saffie Jr. (check)
Top rider: Flavian Prat (check)
Race record: 3 for 3 (check)
Sire: Yaupon (hot sire), (check)
Dam’s sire: Into Mischief (check)
Prime Power Rating: Highest at 144 (check)
Late Pace Figure, 104, the highest in the field (check)
Speed Rating: Equibase, 96,101, 94/ brisnet, 99,96, 97 (highest in the field) check.
Granted, Solitude Dude has yet to race beyond 7 furlongs, so it remains to be seen if he’ll add another check mark to his resume’.
BTW, I placed a $20.00 win wager on Solitude Dude, at 83-1 in Futures Pool 4.
Hey Bill, nice to see someone else also likes Solitude Dude! I don’t believe anyone else has even mentioned him…..forgive me if I missed a prior post.
I went back and watched his 3 races, I thought he was impressive in each one. To your point he hasn’t run beyond 7 furlongs yet so we’ll see what happens on Saturday!
I’m in with you on Pool 4 Future wager on SD!
Welcome aboard the Solitude Dude bandwagon, Bruce.
Excellent points, Bill, and nothing there to disagree with. I do like Solitude Dude a lot, but I like Commandment even more, not so much because of statistics as because he just impressed me. But he does check off some of the boxes, too, and it’s possible that his trainer (Brad Cox), his jockey (Irad Ortiz), and his sire (Into Mischief) might outrank those of Solitude Dude. I also wonder if Irad chose Commandment over Solitude Dude out of loyalty to Brad Cox or because he believes Commandment is a better horse. I think he is.
Betting the latter.
Hey Jiffy
As you probably know by now, I’m a big fan of Into Mischief colts, Commandment is certainly one of his colts that I admire. He really captured my attention with his win in the MMM Stakes. However, I remain convinced that Solitude Dude is the one to beat in the FOY.
In regard to their respective riders, flip a coin as to which one is best.
Good luck with Commandment.
Hey Bill, an interesting FOY if the field stays intact. I hope that Joel will be able to take hold of Napoleon Solo and teach him to rate. I would hate to see NS engage in a speed duel with Solitude Dude. We’ll see how that plays out.
My futures bets are running in all three preps…..
Napoleon Solo, (30-1, P3/4), FOY
Chief Wallabee, (17-1, P3), FOY
Iron Honor, (122-1, P4), Gotham
Class President, (75-1, P4), Rebel
BTW, what’s up with Canaletto? I thought sure he’d be entered in the FOY. Chad must be thinking Tampa Bay Derby?
The REBEL STAKES field:
1)Bravaro (8/1)
2)Litmus Test (7/2)
3)Class President (10/1)
4)Blackout Time (8/5)
5)Honey’s to Blame (20/1)
6)Strategic Risk (12/1)
7)Silent Tactic (9/2)
8)Rancho Santa Fe (12/1)
9)Time for Music (30/1)
10)Solder N Diplomat (10/1)
Hey Nelson, thanks for posting the Rebel Stakes field. I’m somewhat surprised that Baffert decided to ship Litmus Test and not run him in the San Felipe Stakes on March 7th. Does this leave the door open for Plutarch to run in the San Felipe? Stay tuned.
After all these years you would think I’d learn by now to never say a horse is running where he says he is.
LOL.
I know why the late chsnge now. Will go into it in the Rankings.
Thanks, Steve
I’ll be looking forward to your insights, in Derby Rankings – Week 6
Oaklawn hasn’t even posted Saturday’s entries yet..
Only Honeybee and Rebel were drawn today, Rest of card drawn Monday.
I actually like Litmus Test in the Rebel…. I hope it works out !!!
Quel suprise …
Lol
With the scratch of Stop the Car in the John Battaglia Stakes the pace will be even more favorable to frontrunners.
I am playing a trifecta to add excitement to the race:
12-Two Out Hero (on top)
1-Street Beast/2-Steel Imperium/5-Baytown Dreamer/6-Time of Money/7-Attfield/11-Fulleffort
Safe trips to all and good luck
Two Out Hero had a horrible start had no chance to get near the front. Maybe it took too much from him. He made a nice move but just flattened out. Wonder if they will run him in the JRS or keep him on the turf where he looks to have a bright future.
Said that it was a wide open race …. longshot wins it.
Hi Steve
I’d be very appreciative if you could provide So Happy’s Thoro-Graph numbers for his maiden win, and his San Vincente win, going 7 furlongs in 1:21.12.
He’ll be going two turns for the first time, in the San Felipe, which should answer the question on his ability to carry his impressive speed, over 8.5 furlongs.
By all indications, Litmus Test is the horse to beat. I’ll go with So Happy for the upset.
Many thanks for all you do, Steve, it’s much appreciated.
Love the works for Silent Tatic (so was Strategic Risk though would have like just a little faster) and So Happy. IMO these are perfect workouts for closers. In So Happy I hope Mike Smith (MS) is patient with him out of the gate and doesn’t push him to the front. I would like to see him near the back of the pack going to the first turn. About halfway down the backstretch I would to see him start moving him forward and start picking up the trailers and on the turn he should be full out coming into the stretch. He doesn’t necessarily have to win the race I just want to see quick turn of foot and driving home at the end. I think if MS engages him too early in the race by the time he gets to the stretch he will flatten out (if he does do this I hope he surprises me). It will be interesting to see who BB puts into this race as I expect there to be multiple horses. But we all know one thing is that one them will be going for the lead.
For today’s John Battaglia this seems to be a wide open race with a lot of unknowns. I expect the betting to be pretty well spread out. I will not be betting it but my choice for a horse to finish in the money is ….. TWO OUT HERO !!! Love the breeding on this horse.
In another note BLACKSMITH finally broke his maiden yesterday in a one mile MSW at Santa Anita yesterday under jockey F Geroux. He stalked the leader to the top of the stretch and then took off and won by over 3 lengths
Good luck to all in the JBS and have a great rest of the weekend !!!
Thanks for your input, DTS
In both career starts, So Happy showed the ability to rate off the pace setters, which was very fast, in both races. I would hope that Mike Smith will continue to use that same running style and not have him near the back of the pack as you suggested.
With respect to Silent Tactic, I believe he’s the horse to beat in the Rebel.
5 3/4 3 1/2
Many thanks for posting So Happy’s Thoro-Graph numbers, it appears they’re going in the right direction. Hopefully, that trend will continue in the San Felipe.
Now that Baffert has decided to ship Litmus Test for the Rebel Stakes, do you think there’s a possibility that Baffert will enter Plutarch in the San Felipe?
Thanks, Steve.
Baffert really doesn’t need to but there is that possibility. He maybe wants to give Brant a chance since his workouts have been at Santa Anita. We really don’t know what Brant can be and this way Baffert can keep an eye on him he pretty much know what Litmus Test can do. Again I like Liltmus Test at Oaklawn.
DTS
Plutarch has been working over the SA track as well, the last two were bullets. It appears Baffert is facing a dilemma, as to which of the two he enters. He has indicated that recent maiden winner, Potente will enter the San Felipe, which leads me to believe that Baffert might consider Potente the best 3 yr. colt in his barn. Keep in mind that Potente sold at auction for $2.4 million.
As for the Rebel Stakes, I’ll go with Silent Tactic for the win.
You have backed Baffert’s horses for many springs, now, yes?
Good luck on getting an answer.
Meanwhile….HISA is doing the “Kentucky Shakedown”, they want sillx million but will settle for two, as I heard it explained …a paltry sum, when you figure it’s the Derby—HUSA can shut down the simulcast feed, to out-of-state racetracks, and betting applications…..methinks Kentucky will acquiesce….
A couple of thoughts on Silent Tactic and So Happy.
Today, Silent Tactic worked 4 furlongs, in 47.40, 2nd fastest (2/43) over the Oaklawn Park track. He appears to be right on schedule for a big effort in the Rebel on March 1st.
So Happy continues to fly under the radar. On 2-15, he worked 5 furlongs in 59.80, (2/73) over the Santa Anita track. Mark Giatt has So Happy pointed to the San Felipe on 3-7.
In the San Vicente Stakes, So Happy rated off a torrid pace, (22.03, 43.56, 1:08.41) drawing off by 2 lengths for the win, in 1:21.12. He earned an impressive Equibase Speed figure of 100 for that effort. He’ll be going two turns for the first time but appears to have sufficient stamina influence on his dam side. His dam’s sire, Blame, won the 2010 BC Classic, handing the great mare, Zenyatta her only defeat.
I’m somewhat perplexed that So Happy has not been mentioned in Derby Rankings Week 4 or Week 5. If So Happy goes on to win the San Felipe, I suspect we’ll see him in future Derby Weekly Rankings. Stay turned.
I like So Happy too, should he win the San Felipe he would surely get more write-ups, but he needs to go two turns! Even Mark Glatt says that …but he is fast, and he put away a couple of Bob’s colts! He did that in both starts…both wins…he is fast!
Mathew, in your years of extensive experience, how many horses have you seen super fast- knocked off the Derby trail for one reason or another?
Different speed figures work in different ways. I learned Beyers. Others like other figs..brisnet, thorograph etc.
I use beyer figs to measure a horse gersus his past races. Arcangelo was a classic ex.. his beyers increased every time he ran… thats a good thing! Sierra Leone too. Up until the end of his c3yo season his beyers increased every time. Thats a positive progression. Its not a case of picking the best last out beyer or we would all be millionaires.
I’m learning about Thorographs by reading this column. Speaking of this column and not trying knock anybody, but I don’t think it matters who is number one etc as long as Steve provides all the important info on each horse…he can put them in any order for all it matters: its all about the info. Between Steve’s input and that of a few others on here, all the info you need is right here.
Not sure how this ended up as a reply to you, Mike. This whole interweb thing is beyong me.
Interesting insights Dominic. As you’re indicating, progression is paramount.
Dominic your points are well taken, it’s why I like Litmus Test so much, he faced the toughies, he travelled…and he competed! Being large framed, he has room for physical growth, it matters not (to me) that he didn’t clean house, on his opponents, he competed…he has a trainer who knows how to do this….I look forward to the San Felipe, while the east has been shaking things out—the West is still completely up for grabs!
West is wide open, for sure. Litmus Test certainly looks good on paper. Nice breeding too. Love the fact he ran 5 times as a 2yo…good foundation should serve him well when they get to the 8th pole.
Mike ESPECIALLY West coast sprinters….Santa Anita has always been kind to speed….I like So Happy…but I want to see him route! We KNOW he is talented, he has easily handled Bob’s Brigade…he will need to do that again, Bob wins West coast Derby preps, and his barn is loaded…
Mathew, thanks for your reply back. Time will tell,for sure.
Yes, I mentioned that So Happy will be going two turns for the first. Granted, his sire, Run Happy, was strictly a sprinter, a super-fast sprinter. He won the 2015 BC Sprint, going 6 furlongs, in 1:08.58, which was a new track record at Keeneland. I would venture to say that So Happy inherited his impressive speed from Run Happy. I maintain that his dam side will provide the stamina influence he will need going two turns. It remains to be seen if So Happy can carry his speed around two turns, but I would think Mark Giatt is confident that his colt will pass the two-turn test with flying colors, or he would not have entered him in the San Felipe.
So Happy will be my pick in the San Felipe.
Edit: My current top 12 Derby contenders, listed in preferential order are as follows:
1) Plutarch
2) Renegade
3) Silent Tactic
4) Paladin
5) So Happy
6) Further Ado
7) Nearly
8) Litmus Test
9) Intrepido
10) Commandment
11) Brant
12) Solitude Dude
I would add Awesome Gun to your list.
Thanks for the input, William D
I would point out that Awesome Gun didn’t break his maiden until his 4th start. However, I must say his maiden win was quite impressive, going 8.5 furlongs in 1:43.22, at the Fairgrounds.
He’s another colt in the Cherie DeVaux barn worth watching moving forward.
In his KOTD segment, Steve had a lot of positive comments on Awesome Gun’s maiden win.
Were are the two turns for Chief Wallabee and Napoleon Solo? I think Steve just likes controversy as it keeps everyone engaged here.
Controversy? I have no idea what you’re talking about but i doubt you make down the stretch. Youre back in the starting gate.
Well I got your attention !!! I was answering basically Matthew post that it would take So Happy to run around 2 turns to before he will be written up. And my answer to him was if that is the case then why are Chief Wallabee and Napoleon Sole getting print while they have only run around one turn. The controversy is for me and Bill Dawson as you have failed to mention So Happy in 3 out of 5 weeks in your Derby Rankings even though he has run one of the fastest 7 furlongs for a 3 year olds won a stakes race and unless something has changed he is being pointed for the San Felipe.
So what? It’s his blog.
The same reason that Forever Young gets print winning a one turn race twice? Could be!!!!!!
Life is full of choices. There are no shackles to keep anyone here. And that is the last of my attention you get.
Would really appreciate any information on Chad’s 2 horses Canaletto and Iron Honor. Weather in NY is terrible. Thanks. Really like this website.
Then you should start your own blog! With your own list!
Perhaps Steve doesnt think the horse walks on water like you do. I dont think Steve writes this column seeking approval. Seems he loves his job and emjoys passing valuable info to us “FOR FREE” …. about 90 percent of my derby research/handicapping is based on info I get from the Derby Dozen… its up to us to decide what info is relevant as opposed to info that is irrelevant…. Believe what you want and disregard the rest. To each his own!
I callenge you to post your derby dozen for our perusal!
It’s better than ranking Plutarch second. 😉
Without a doubt!
Like I said before …. Its “your Column” …. and who said Plutarch for second.???.. I always said Renegade over Nearly !!!
Start your own blog. No one cares!
One of your good buddies – don’t be coy, now…
Napoleon Solo by Liam’s Map, a sire known for brilliant milers rather than classic distance dominance. His best performance came at a one turn mile in the Champagne Stakes. Did he beat anyone that is on the Derby trail?
He could very well impress in the prep races with his speed. However, that strategy hasn’t worked out for a while in the KD….especially if BB enters one or two speed demons.
Yes, well, milers is what everyone said Tapit could throw …
And how about Into Mischief … before Authentic, Mandaloun and Sovereignty he was supossed to sire only milers and high-calibre sprinter…
Exactly …. I think Liam’s Map could have given AP a run for his money in the Classic. It’s always struck me as rather odd that they entered the $500K Dirt Mile rather than the $4MM classic …
Yes, the mile was strange.
Brotherly Love, the half-brother to Heart of Honor, takes the 20 points of the Listed race named Dubai Road to the Kentucky Derby at Meydan. The son of Zoustar clocked 2:01.41 for the 1 3/16-mile avenging his brother’s second place last year when the race was the Al Bataskiya.
The favorite Salloom, an impressive debut winner, was scratched at the gate after breaking through it and dumping his jockey there.
Brotherly Love is a grinder like his brother and looks better suited to 1-1/2-mile races. The UAE Derby will be a much toughre race competing with the Japanese and the winner of the 2000 UAE Guineas, Six Speed.
Saffie Osborne became the first female Jockey to win in Dubai.
Another interesting note is the dominant performance of Labwah (Charlatan-War Tigress by War Chant) in the UAE Oaks. She won by almost 8 lenghts clocking an outstanding 2:00.57 for the 1 3/16-mile (about a second faster than Brotherly Love).
Labwah got 50 qualifying points to the Kentucky Oaks. Many analysts believe she would be a strong contender in the UAE Derby against the males … if she wins on March 28 they can decide to nominate her on April 6.
So it is not only Zany making Derby waves now… It would be great to see two fillies competing in the Kentucky Derby this year.
Napoleon Solo worked a sharp 4f in 48.45 (4/45) at Palm Meadows TC this morning. Looks like he’s ready to go, hopefully in the Fountain of Youth.
Let’ s get these horses racing. They need more than one prep race to have a realistic chance of winning the Derby. Can you tell that I’m getting antsy? lol
You are not the only one Dewey … this is the most awaited 3-year-old debut in my mind.
I really liked his previous workout (5f in 1:00.45) rating behind 4-year-old Ruleroftheword and leaving him 3 lengths behind at the finish line.
In fact, all his workouts at Palm Meadows are exceptional for that training center.
Solo looks really ready to start rolling indeed….!
When I read Chad Summers worrying about field size and post positions I start thinking we sort of have more confidence in the powerful gray than his own trainer.
BTW don’t Napoleon Solo’s knee action and reach remind you of Skip Away? it is at least encouraging that Solo looked more promising than Skippy in their 2-year-old seasons…
It will be a fascninating Fountain of Youth for sure!
Nelson, I just watched Skip Away win the Breeders Cup and Napoleon Solo win the Champagne. I must say it didn’t dawn on me before that they had similar knee action and reach, but, after looking at these videos, I see what you mean by the similarities in their action.
I loved Skippy. He and his trainer, Sonny Hine and owner Carolyn Hine were favorites of mine. I saw Skip Away live and in person twice when he won back-to-back Mass Caps in ’97 and ’98. If Napoleon Solo can come close to what Skip Away had, I’ll be a very happy fan.
Eight days and waiting………
Reagan’s Honor to Blue Grass …DRF will have an article up soon
I’m surprised, because it’s only a few weeks to the Derby – if he gets in. I’m guessing she likes the extra time from now to BG
Actually, no surprise – Cherie had recently said that she was spending time developing him physically & mentally as he’s a fairly light horse. So this extra time makes sense
BG Likely if he gets in. She wants to make sure it doesnt get oversubscribed.
You think the LA Derby will be oversubscribed ?and that the BG is a back up?
La Derby probably too soon. She said BG likely if he gets in.
Ah, Thanks!
that’s what I thought – the extra time for BG works much better
Looking at some PP’s of past Derby winners, I noticed Keeneland’s track surface was All Weather back in 2010. Does anyone know the reasoning behind converting back to dirt and in what year?
It was converted back in the summer of 2014 from a polytrack surface to dirt. In my opinion, which is as biased as any, it was to stay relevant A number of racetracks converted their surfaces either due to safety for the horses or the harsh weather, or both in their regions. Keeneland, along with Saratoga and Del Mar were the premier racetracks. We all hope that remains the case.
Chad Summers reported that he intends to run Napoleon Solo in the Fountain of Youth. However, depending on the field size and the post position they get at Gulfstream his back up is the Gotham.
I hope Napoleon Solo can run in the FoY … it is a tougher group but it would be great to see how he performs going two turns against nice up and coming prospects…
At least the weather forecast is favorable for Aqueduct and Gulfstream Park …
The comments on this week’s post are wonderful.
Over the next couple of weeks, the five scheduled Derby prep should provide a clearer picture on some of the top prospects moving forward on the Derby trail. I don’t have a lot of interest in the Gotham, but the FOY field should be very competitive. If Commandment passes the class test, he’ll be a force to be reckoned with, IMO.
If Silent Tactic can replicate his Southwest performance, he’ll be tough to beat in the Rebel. In the Tampa Bay Derby, I’ll go with Further Ado, another colt on this year’s Derby trail that “could” carry the X-Factor large heart gene.
In the San Felipe, it appears that Litmus Test is the colt to beat. I was very disappointed to read that Baffert is considering the Wood Memorial for Plutarch’s next outing.
I realize he wants to keep him separated from Litmus Test, but in the past, he’s been known to run horses in his barn against each other. Evidently, Plutarch was not nominated for the San Felipe, so we’ll just have to see where he will show up next.
Things are starting to get interesting.
The San Felipe noms are not out yet. I am sure Plutarch will be nominated.
From what I been reading, Baffert will point Plutarch to the Santa Anita Derby, on April 4th. Stay tuned.
edit: From what I’ve been reading,
I don’t believe Devils Bag and Napoleon Solo ran their editions of the Champagne at the same track.
I believe it. So? If you dont like the stats ignore them.
Reagan’s Honor’s fractions :
22.94
23.89
24.72
24.19
6.28
Betsy:
I want to thank you for your post; based on that, I put $25 on Reagan’s Honor at 100-1; just checked, and he is now 50-1 in futures…I wasn’t quick enough to jump on his opening odds of 150-1, but 100-1 works too!
Biggy, you’re welcome!
You got a great price. ..I hope you cash in
Thanks, Betsy!
On February 19th, the track bias at Fair Grounds favored speed. 4th race $30K claimers the winning time for a mile was 1:35.55
7th race, $50K AOC final time for 1 1/16 1:42.18 (22.86) (24.72) (25.62) (6.35)
4th race was on turf
Thanks, Tim’
Fair enough. Overall, claiming horses were running fast times.
Not that fast – otherwise why the 96 BSF?
It’s fine if you weren’t impressed, but it seems odd that you’re trying to find a way to diminish the effort
Are you impressed with subjective Beyer speed figures? They do not account for various variables.
The race is going to come up huge on all figure …he’s going to get close to 120 for US Timeform
BSF isn’t the only reason to be impressed, and he’s a huge buzz horse now not just for that
There were 2 2 turn dirt races that day, the other being a very good ALW for older horse…who RH ran faster than
But ok, 🤷♀️
Good point, Zany.
What’s that old saying….flavor of the week?
Amazing how certain people are enamored by a speedy horse this week, until another one amazes next week or the week after….and so on.
I too like a horse that impresses. However, tempering expectations until said horse strings together a decent resume. Oh well…..everyone is wired different.
This horse is not a speed demon – and I have to ask, have you said this everytime someone posts about a 3C who runs a big figure?
Not one person has gone overboard with praise – but the horse ran extremely well, and he looked like a horse who will stretch out.
If you want people to temper expectations anytime a promising 3C runs big, waiting for them to out together a string resume, then you can never get excited about any horse….until they’ve done multiple grades stakes
Well Andy Serling said it did not – there were 6 dirt races, and RH was the only one who went wire to wire
But it’s good if there are more out there that think this way – better price !
Cherie DeVaux has a very talented colt in Reagan’s Honor, who blew out older horses (3C ALW races never filled) in fast time. He went wire to wire again, but he’s no speed demon – he’s very tractable
Reagan’s Honor’s time of 1:42.02 was practically equalling the track record (1:42.01).
He was very impressive even with the very fast track today (older horses clocked 1:42.18) one race later…
This exploit of Reagan’s Honor today boosts the expectations for Jackson Hole who a month ago clocked very fast sectional times in a final time of 1:44.71. It was faster than Reagan’s Honor’s 1:45.03. The same afternoon Golden Tempo won the Lecomte Stakes in 1:44.98.
Trainers should use more Allowance races to prepare their hopefuls for big races…
I have been in contact with Terry Finley about him. Been waiting for him to run. 96 Beyer. Gorgeous mover.
Wow, Steve – 96 is huge!
I agree, he has a lovely way of going,
He’s not a big horse, and Cherie apparently said she’s been preparing him physically & mentally for the challenges to come
I love how he was fast early, middle, late …
That’s not easy
Thanks for the update Steve…
Equibase assigned 105 to Reagan’s Honor … the fastest speed rating on dirt among all the 3-year-olds this year.
His dam is half to Giacomo and Tiago but this one looks more promising by his tactical speed…!
Nelson, I don’t know what’s going on at FG, but 3 times Cherie entered for ALW against straight 3 year olds, and none filled. Another filly I follow didn’t run because her race didn’t fill.
I don’t know if all the promising colts who were eligible went in the stakes or what, but Cherie had to run against older horses just to get a race into him
Jackson Hole is very talented, but if I recall, he didn’t finish that strongly. …but I think he set fast fractions, so…
It will be interesting to see where RH goes next. LA Derby is logical, but she may want more time
You are rigth Betsy… I would not rush Reagan’s Honor into deep warers…
*deep waters just yet
I do think he’s going to a stakes …likely LA Derby, though I guess AK is possible. I’m fine with that – but he’ll need points very quickly
Cherie will do what’s right for him – o think we’ll know soon as West Point uploads videos of their horses, as well as a podcast
WOW!!! Very nice race by Reagan’s Honor !!! He definitely is one to keep an eye on especially if they can get him to rate.
In his debut at 6F, he closed solidly…I think it’s really circumstance that has lead him to go wire to wire in the last two – especially today. He didn’t even break that well, but j think they didn’t want to mess around with what they saw as the best horse. He’s very tractable …
My response is waiting moderation, but I don’t see that as a problem. He closed solidly in his sprint debut, and I think he went gate to wire his last two in part because no one wanted the lead and/or jock didn’t want to mess around on the best horse. You can see he’s amendable, so he’s no speed demon
Bill Dawson and Ms Blacktype and Nelson I have read your replies below and and I have to say I have to agree with all of them. Bill I agree the JBS is not a strong and stellar field and only offering 20 points to the winner and especially when 1 week later you have 3 races offering 50 points to the winner. But then again Ms Blacktype points out that this race is a stepping stone race to the Jeff Ruby Stakes (JRS) which will be run on March 21 (also at Turfway Park) and offers 100 points to the winner , 50 to 2nd and 25 to 3rd. And Nelson stating that the race offers a possible betting bonanza. There are also 2 things I also like about this race is the spacing. Let say you have a lightly raced horse and you get 3rd in this race and you get 6pts. You go to JRS and get 3rd and show improvement in that race. So you are sitting with 31 pts and are on the borderline of getting into the KD. This still gives you the opportunity of running in the Lexington Stakes on April 11th which is held at Keeneland KY and just a stroll away from Churchill, and if you win you get 20pts and 2nd offers 10pts and you would have very good chance of getting in the KD and also have a very fit horse going to the derby. 2nd thing is I remember ,as that Turfway park being a synthetic surface, and many years ago when the California tracks were synthetic surface. Horse shipping from CA tracks to stakes races running back east and either winning or running very well in those races it and leaving handicapper shaking their head how could this be and Baffert offered a theory and that was horses that were training and running on synthetic tracks were fitter horses. I would not discount the horses coming out of the JBS and JRS lightly.
On another note, Steve , Like your switch of Renegade over Nearly in this weeks list right now to me he is right up there with Paladin.
Another thing is Brant. It looked like he was being pointed to Rebel but Oaklawn just released a list of who will possibly be entered for that race and he was not on that list. I looked at his last 3 works. First two were just easy light works the last 6 furlong work it looked like the jockey on the first part of the work was just cantering with him and then about the last 100 yards of the work the jockey got into him and he just took off and I agree with you Steve I liked the way he galloped out. I wonder if there is a change of plans on the Rebel? Steve anything you find out from Baffert on this?
Hopefully after the next 2 weeks we see who is for “real” and who is just a dream in their owners eyes.
Thanks for the input, Downthestretch.
You bring up interesting points on the likely path forward for the John Battaglia winner.
If in fact the winner moves on to the Jeff Ruby Steaks, he’ll be facing a much tougher field. That said, I’ll be looking at the upcoming dirt prep races for top prospects on the Derby trail.
BTW, after digging deeper into Silent Tactic’s pedigree, I noticed his dam, Magical Sign and his grand dam, Malvinia are double copy mares. Meaning both are likely carriers of the large heart gene, passed down from A. P. Indy, Weekend Surprise and Secretariat.
It would come as no surprise that Silent Tactic could carry the large heart gene, inherited from his dam, Magical Sign. The way he closed in the Southwest, from 11th at the 3/4 pole, and drawing off by 3 1/4 lengths was something to behold. He finished with a lot of energy, which leads me to believe that 10 furlongs is within his wheelhouse. Next up is the Rebel, with 50 Derby points going to the winner. If he should winner the Rebel, I suspect he’ll be moving up on Steve’s Derby Rankings.
Best of luck down the road, DTS.
Bill, his fourth dam is Maximova who produced Septieme Ciel and of course, his third dam Macoumba, that also produced Malibu Moon.
Yes indeed, Silent Tactic’s tail-female side reflects a considerable amount of stamina influence, IMO. Looking at the top side of his pedigree, his sire’s dam, Close Hatches, was one of my favorite mares, who won close to $3 million in earnings during her career.
Bottom line, it would appear that Silent Tactic has a bright future moving forward. Currently, I have him at #3 on my Derby Watch list, right behind Renegade (#2) and Plutarch at #1.
I agree with Steve in that Turfway Park’s preps (the Jeff Ruby Stakes) has been successful the last 5 years… Since Rich Strike that route has produced Two Phil’s (2nd), and Final Gambit who finished a very creditable 4th behind the monsters Sovereignty, Journalism and Baeza.
Your point of getting the qualifying points in both preps is very logic. I am also with Bill in the idea that the Jeff Ruby usually brings different (stronger) players like Two Phil’s, Seize the Grey, and Final Gambit.
Regarding Brant, Baffert nominated him with Buetane, Potente and Litmus Test to the Rebel but no one knows who ends up at Oaklawn …
The cases for the top five horses remain solid with Paladin keeping his promise intact after a sophomore debut that was even better than it appears on paper. It would be great if Paladin can keep his rivalry with Renegade across the Triple Crown series and beyond. It would be a nice treat for the fans.
I noticed Chip Honcho and Brant slipped into the rankings this week. Brant looks like he’ll end up the one to beat in the Rebel Stakes since he’s the only real speed in the possible field… a little pedigree nugget for you – Brant’s dam got the same nick as that of Napoleon Solo. She is by Liam’s Map out of a Scat Daddy mare, so Brant can Napoleon Solo his “uncle”… and both got their gray color to prove it.
They remind me of two cousins who were top players during the Derby trail and remained in the headlines over the next two years -Sierra Leone and Forever Young. This year the gray uncle and nephew will likely be chief agents of rich speed in the Derby trail.
Also, I am reading an interesting observation about Awesome Gun’s remarkable sectional and winning time at Fair Grounds. He was faster than Bella Ballerina in winning the Rachel Alexandra Stakes and only 73/100 slower than Dubai World Cup champion Hit Show in the Mineshaft Stakes.
This reminds me of another son of Gun Runner named Hall of Fame who was also faster breaking his maiden than his stable mate Track Phantom in winning the Lecomte Stakes the same afternoon. Hall of Fame was no match for Track Phantom’s speed in the Risen Star fading to 7th (behind Sierra Leone) and no factor in the Louisiana Derby before going sidelined for 9 months … I hope Awesome Gun has luckier 3-year-old campaign than Hall of Fame’s.
I also appreciate the information about Javier Castellano keeping faith on Strategic Risk. We may very well expect a rebound next time by the son of Noble Bird. Perhaps, the 9-day pause of training at Oaklawn affected Strategic Risk more than other horses stabled there… anyway, we have already established that he owns the best pedigree for the Classics.
Finally, I agree that Napoleon Solo and Blackout Time are training so well that they should climb the ranking after their 3-year-old debuts… They will be adding a lot of excitement to the Derby trail for sure.
Nelson, since last month SR is a horse who captured my interest. He deserves another shot,not ready to throw in the towel.
Same here Mike… I can’t overlook that Strategic Risk was the third choice in the Southwest and was supossed to be rigth there with Silent Tactic albeit the latter working better in the only (public) breeze they had this year (61 3/5 vs 62 2/5).
Anyway, I trust Castellano hinting a big rebound next time… Let’s wait and see!
Agreed!
I was thinking the same: I hope we hear from him again soon and hope he is ok also
This was supposed to be a reply to below post re Davids!
While we are caught up in Derby fever, it dawned on me that we haven’t heard from Davids for some time now. Has anybody had contact with Davids? It’s unusual that his comments are missing from this blog. I do hope that he’s okay.
I’ve thought that, too…hope he is ok….
Don’t worry Dewey, have a feeling he/she will show up in near future.
Mike, snide comments (“he/she”) are not appropriate.
Mike, snide comments (“he/she”) are not appropriate here.
A very weak field has been assembled for the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes, coming up on Saturday. Not one horse in the field appears in any of the Derby Futures Pools.
For a race that offers 20 Derby points to the winner, you would think the connections of a couple Derby prospects would enter their respective horses in the race, just to pick up those 20 points. Looking over the field, Two Out Hero appears to be the one to beat, but he’s stuck in p/p #12. If I were to bet the race, which I’m not, I’d go with Attfield.
Thankfully, the FOY and the Gotham will have some of the main prospects on this year’s Derby trail, competing for those 50 Derby points. The FOY is the race that I’m eagerly looking forward to.
This race has had zero impact on the Kentucky Derby, and zero points should be awarded. The Jeff Ruby has some gravitas.
I stand corrected. Rich Strike finished fourth in this race. Award the points! LOL
Sure Rob, you like many would do cartwheels to own RS.
Au contraire, Bill! There are several nice grass/synthetic types in the Battaglia, led by Street Beast, who has won two stakes and ran 4th in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf. Brad Cox has entered two horses — Kilo Tango and Fulleffort — and Brendan Walsh is seeking redemption for Stop the Car, who was seventh in the Lecomte. Granted, not one of the entries has run very fast, at least in terms of speed figures. But I learned my lesson to pay attention to these synthetic preps with Rich Strike. Whoever wins the Jeff Steaks will certainly be in the gate at Churchill, and this is a prep for that.
Thanks for the reply, Ms Blacktype
I stand by my original statement that field entered in the John Battaglia Stakes is very weak. With only 20 points going to the winner, how can you state that the winner “will certainly be in the gate at Churchill”? The winner will need at least 20 to 25 additional points to make the starting gate. Where will the winner go next?
The waters will get much deeper in the remaining Derby prep races down the road. Good luck with horses you pointed out.
I believe Blacktype said that the winner of the Ruby will be in the gate and that this is a prep for that race- so this race matters. But I agree, this group does nothing for me in terms of the Derby but I’d like to see how Street Beast does… interestingly enough, I unknowingly booked an Airbnb when at Keeneland this past fall on the farm where Ben Colebrook has his horses. So, I’m pulling for Street Beast who doesn’t necessarily need the lead.
Thanks, Matthew. I personally think Street Beast has the makings of a first class horse. Would love to see him blossom at Turfway.
As Matthew Rosato said, I was thinking of the Battaglia as a prep for the Ruby. And I also have a thing for Street Beast. Hope to see him on the Derby Watch list eventually.
Relative to the ranked dirt horses one can say that the John Battaglia Memorial is indeed a weak field. However, I see a good oportunity for good payoffs in the exotics.
There are some viable longshots like the impressive debut winner Steel Imperium (15/1), Baytown Dreamer (30/1) (if he can replicate his Smarty Jones run), and Time for Money (30/1) bound to improve after being gelded. Any of them sneaking into the Trifecta or Superfecta would trigger nice dividends.
I foresee Street Beast, Stop the Car and Attfield as the ones controlling the pace with any of them able to “steal” the race … we’ll have to watch the track bias as Turfway has seen a lot of speedsters winning lately…
Nelson, good article by Stettin on Twitter regarding track bias this week.
Thanks for the information Matthew … I will take a look at the post (despite me not being a Twitter fan but sometimes it is the only source of information and updates)…
Thanks again Matt
After Zany won the Demoiselle, I kind of hoped we’d see her on the Derby Trail, but after her goofy antics in winning last weekend… guess we’re stuck with the usual confusing group of evenly matched colts.
Thankfully, Baeza goes to Mott.
Correct! Baeza is with a proven winner, who does what’s best for the horse.
After the Risen Star, I must agree with Steve that Paladin continues to rule the roost in a wide-open race to the first Saturday in May. The following is my updated derby dozen…..
DERBY DEW’S DERBY DOZEN
– As of 02/18/26 –
Paladin
Nearly
Napoleon Solo
Class President
Renegade
Plutarch
Litmus Test
Silent Tactic
Blackout Time
Commandment
Canaletto
Further Ado
Stay healthy, Paladin!
Hi Dewey, love your confidence in Paladin. It’s well deserved. He’s in with the points and the Bluegrass will be his 3rd race at 1 1/8, he has a lot of fitness and foundation for the KY Derby. We both are on Class President who will be running in the Rebel. Excited to get to see him go 2 turns and 1 1/16. There will be several contenders in this race, but, like you, I like his chances.
Looks like we’re sitting in the same cheering section, Joe. I’m really high on Paladin, and anxious to see Class President in the Rebel and Napoleon Solo (hopefully) in the Fountain of Youth. It’s going to be a long 10 days before we see our colts run but it will be worth the wait, I’m sure.
In the meantime, it might be interesting to see who shows up in the Battaglia this weekend.
So Baffert ships Boyd across the country to run at Churchill Downs & he wins then notta hasn’t run since I have seen works but not any word where he may run next if even is tabbed to run anywhere. Time is ticking to get him started somewhere….
Al Haram, the Saudi Derby winner, is pointing to the UAE Derby, possibly the Kentucky Derby trip – but currently not Triple Crown Nominated.
I definitely agree this is a hard group to rank with no one standing heads and shoulders above the rest and no standouts by the numbers.
I am most interested in seeing if Napoleon Solo proves to have the speed needed to move him up.
Hi Steve. Great analysis, as usual.
Any word on Paladin’s Thoro-Graph figure yet?
Thanks so much – David
Waiting on it.
3 3/4
Thanks so much!
Palidin, Renegade and Nearly have shown good
, back east …the West is up in the air.….Steve I think you are onto the right west coast three year old, in Litmus Test, who continues a steady work pattern, for Bob….this colt has what my brother always says is important: he ran two turns vs good two year olds, he has a large frame, and Bob likes him, Bob missed three years …came back with a miler (Citizen Bull)….his 2nd year back in the Derby the race looks fairly wide open , for a guy who knows how to get one ready—–I like Nearly, and Paladin looks real good….but don’t count Bob out this year!…
Bob has a much better chance with Plutarch, Potente, and Brant than he does with Litmus Test. Imo, 10 furlongs might be borderline for LT.
Connect continues to be a bit underrated as a sire. I see some of his progeny doing well on grass as well. Ppl forget that he won 6 of 8 races (before an injury forced retirement) including a Gr 1 and Grade 2 and beating Gun Runner on the square when GR was in fine form. His Cigar Mile showed his toughness n grit in a fabulous stretch duel…recommend rewatching if you have not.
What a terrific story about Mandy’s Grace. You’ve given me an additional reason to root for Pavlovian!
Thank you!
I don’t think you should rank Litmus Test over Silent Tactic, who has run 2nd and 1st in two Derby preps, while as you mentioned, Litmus Test is languishing in his stall.
Another fascinating list, Steve. You do such a thorough job in your analysis that it’s sometimes difficult for me to sort it all out….. but, I’m getting there. lol.
Thanks for the encouragement regarding Naploleon Solo and Class President. I was fortunate to get them in Futures Pool #4 @ 30-1 and 75-1 respectively. One of these years I’m going to cash one. Please, racing gods, let this be the year, ha! ha!
The other bet I had in Pool #4 was Iron Honor (99-1). He broke his maiden first try at Aqueduct on Dec. 13th. This son of Nyquist o/o Orencia (by Blame) appears to be well bred and suited for the Derby distance. He hasn’t run at 3 yet, but is working smartly (5 works) and will likely be racing soon. Have you spoken with Chad Brown recently about his plans for Iron Honor? Thanks.
Dewey, Steve may know more, but I read he’s under consideration for the Gotham Stakes on Feb. 28.
Thanks, Ms. B. Iron Honor is definitely flying under the radar. I just hope that Chad gives him a chance to show what he’s got in a points race. The Gotham would seem to be a good fit. Thanks again, for the heads up.
Steve Haskin summed it up perfectly with his comment that very little separates the 3-year-olds this year. I’m still waiting for a hero to rise from these streets.
Last year we had a couple of obvious standouts with Sovereignty and Journalism. It looks to be much more wide open this year.
Steve
I neglected to mention how proud you must feel that Paul Reddam named Pavlovian’s dam, Mandy’s Grace, after your daughter. That got me to thinking on how he came up with the name, Pavlovian. I wonder if Pavlovian was given the Pavlovian-To-Instrumental Transfer test. The test is designed to evaluate horses with respect to their fearfulness, gregariousness, level of activity, sensory sensitivity and reactivity to humans. The designers of the PTI test got the idea from Ivan Pavlov, using his dog that led to Classical Conditioning.
Question: Did Paul Reddam’s team perform the PTI test on Pavlovian and did he (Pavlovian) score relatively high on the test. I’m suspect Mr. Reddam named his colt as a result of that test.
Maybe I’m way off base for even asking the question, but I couldn’t help wondering why the horse was named Pavlovian.
Thanks, Steve.
I dont know for sure but Anna Pavlova was the most famous ballerina of her time back in the early 1900s. Maybe between Pavel, Pavlova, and ballet it all fit.
Thanks for the reply, Steve
The ballerina connection provides a clearer picture as to why Mr. Reddam named him Pavlovian. I believe you nailed it.
#12? I just had to Steve (big smile) I love your body of work
Steve, what a fascinating analysis of so many horses who just raced or are soon to go to the post. Your top pairing of Paladin and Renegade makes so much sense, now that you’ve shown us so much information about their various speed figures. (Despite the flashy Beyer, Nearly’s closing quarter of 27 seconds in the Holy Bull is troubling.) Thanks, too, for going the extra mile (more like a marathon) to report on the projected next starts of so many horses.
You are also wise to keep Silent Tactic so high up. It’s worth mentioning that his third dam, Macoumba, is the mama of Malibu Moon. His fifth dam is Seximee, who produced Nonoalco and Stravinsky. That makes Silent Tactic a graded winner from a sire-making line on his female line. He’s also from the family of Cinq a Sept, one of my favorite foundation mare simply because of the lyricism of her name.
And of COURSE Pavlovian’s win in the Sunland Derby was the event of the year. Loved the tie-in to your daughter; I hope the horse proves worthy of her.
Oops, Seximee is Silent Tactics SIXTH dam.
I put up wagers on Litmus Test, at 38-1….and Intrepido, who went off much higher …
Boxed those two in exactas with “all others,”, 9)2 .,..
Hi Steve
Thank you for providing another in-depth analysis on your leading Derby prospects.
I was very disappointed to read that Baffert is considering the Wood Memorial for Plutarch’s next start. Is he hesitant to run him against Litmus Test and possibly Potente in the San Felipe? I wonder how Plutarch’s connections feel about this developing scenario. Not that it matters what I think, but I consider it a big mistake.
I liked what you had to say about Napoleon Solo, and feel fortunate to have wheeled him on top, with nine other colts underneath, in an exacta wager.
BTW, have you heard anything about So Happy’s future plans?
Thanks, Steve.
Edit: Napoleon Solo exacta wager (Pool 4)
Baffert has got to go and find place in the country as he’s got six horses who have qualification points but not enough to qualify….
He’s got place them so they don’t run against each other….
I understand that. My only concern is that Plutarch is the horse he’s shipping.
From my perspective, Plutarch is a better Derby prospect than Litmus Test.
Why not ship Litmus Test and enter Plutarch in the San Felipe. Obviously, my opinion doesn’t matter, but that’s the way I see it.
Hi Steve – Well it’s really heating up now. Paladin closing down Chip Honcho in the Risen Star looked like Journalism last year, the way he closed out the Preakness and the Haskell with that determined outside run in the stretch. I’m feeling really good about my 22-1 on Paladin from KDFW2. He did beat Renegade by 2 lengths going away in the Remsen, and I have a lot of respect for Renegade. I’m glad that you let us know that Class President will be running in the Rebel agsinst a solid field. I really believe that he can hold his own and hit the board to get valuable derby points and possibly can even be a win contender. If he runs well in the Rebel, then there’s a plethora of options for a final 100 point prep to seal the deal and punch 🥊 his ticket 🎫 to Louisville. Glad to have bet CP at 50-1 in KDFW3. I’m excited to see this talented son of Uncle Mo stretch his legs in the Rebel.
Joe, as you know, I’m also on Class President’s bandwagon. I was surprised and pleased to get him @ 75-1 in Pool 4. Like you, I’m very much looking forward to the Rebel.
A super look at SO many promising 3 year olds. Thank you! I think Intrepido (#19) deserves a ranking much closer to Plutarch (#7). They ran side-by-side the whole race, and Intrepido had a longer layoff than Plutarch. I don’t expect Intrepido to be on the early lead in the San Felipe; it should be more like his race in the American Pharoah.
Who is the mystery horse @#12?
I wondered about that, too. It may be just an error in numbering, but wouldn’t it be a great game to leave out one horse and let everybody guess who’s missing? If there is a # 12, I think it should be Wayne’s Law or maybe Solitude Dude. Balboa is my longshot pick, and Kristofferson to my knowledge has not surfaced yet. My World ran very badly on Saturday, but unless they move the Kentucky Derby to Riyadh, I’m not giving up on him yet. Those are my favorites among the missing.
I’ll go with So Happy, as the missing #12.
He’s been working lights out since his very impressive win in the San Vincente Stakes, going 7 furlongs in 1:21.12.
Another interesting possibility.