2026 Kentucky Derby Rankings – Week 6
We are making some changes in the format this week, and likely in future weeks. It is apparent that so far there has been little spark on the Derby trail, on and off the track, as indicated by certain factors. Therefore, to make it easier and quicker to read, I am shortening the comments a bit on the ranked horses and just supply the pertinent information, such as speed figures, occasional pedigree notes, and a brief visual interpretation of stakes performances. We also will analyze upcoming stakes and providie potential angles, news, and points of interest in Knocking on the Door, where I explain why we’re doing only a Derby Dozen this week. The result should be a quicker and easier read and not as laborious as past Rankings. We will save the back stories for future feature columns. ~ Steve Haskin
Derby Rankings: February 23, 2026 – Week 6
By Steve Haskin
1. Paladin (Chad Brown, Gun Runner — Secret Sigh, by Tapit)
His “3 3/4” Thoro-Graph number in the Risen Star Stakes and 93 Beyer figure indicate he is moving forward with each race, and by following the same race schedule as his predecessor Sierra Leone, who also went into the Derby with only four career starts, he has a path to follow. Sierra Leone, however, went into the Blue Grass Stakes off a “4 1/2” in the Risen Star and jumped to a “1 1/2,” putting him on a great pattern going into the Derby. Off that “3 3/4,” Paladin doesn’t have to improve quite that much, but that “1 1/2” should be his approximate target number at Keeneland. Visually, he has all the tools, a strong foundation, and knows how to win. And he is tactical and more professional than Sierra Leone. He’s not flashy, but there is no one more solid and dependable.
2. Renegade (Todd Pletcher, Into Mischief — Spice is Nice, by Curlin)
He seems to stack up well with Paladin and is equally as professional with a similar powerful stretch punch. They have been hard to separate in one-on-one competition and are both royally bred with top-class trainers. Their budding rivalry could be the most intriguing aspect of the Derby trail so far. From a speed-ratings standpoint, Paladin seems a bit faster of the two, having progressed a little more in his 3-year-old debut. Renegade pretty much paired up his Remsen Thoro-Graph number, going from a “5” to a “5 1/2” in the Sam F. Davis Stakes against lesser competion and improved his Beyer figure to a 92. So he still has a bit of work to do in his final prep, likely the Arkansas Derby, to put himself in a good position to win on the first Saturday in May. He also is more pace dependent than Paladin, but his closing fractions of :23 3/5, :24 1/5, and :06 in the Sam Davis were as good as it gets. So, again, we’re talking about a consistent colt who can sustain his closing speed and is always going to give you confidence when they turn for home.
3. Nearly (Todd Pletcher, Not This Time — Ib Prospector, by Mineshaft)
Although his Thoro-Graph and Beyer figures make him the fastest 3-year-old on the Derby trail, and if there is one horse who looks capable of supplying that much-needed spark it is him. First off he is the only horse to have back-to-back Beyers as high as 97 and 98, both this year, and his “1” Thoro-Graph number is the fastest by far by any 3-year-old. Only Further Ado ran a faster number last year in his freakish maiden romp. However, there is a “but” attached. He regressed to a “5” in the Holy Bull Stakes and he has only the Florida Derby to get back close enough to that “1” and put himself within striking range of a Derby-winning number. So far, nothing has come close to a typical Derby-winning number, so we really don’t know yet what it’s going to take to win it. You also want to see him save some of that speed for the end, as he needs to improve big-time off the 78 Brisnet late-closing figure that followed blazing early and middle numbers. Everything else about him is a no-brainer and he is star material for sure.
4. Further Ado (Brad Cox, Gun Runner — Sky Dreamer, by Sky Mesa)
With so many Derby contenders running this weekend, by the time we finally get to his 3-year-old debut in the March 7 Tampa Bay Derby, it is possible that a number of them may have gotten exposed, and there may not be much left for him to beat. So he can actually move up the Rankings without doing anything. But what has moved him up this week are his series of bullet works at Payson Park, which has always had a reputation for being a deeper surface that gets horses fit. But you couldn’t tell that from his works. His two most recent works, a half in :48 3/5 and five-eighths in 1:01 flat, might not seem like anything to get excited about, but at Payson Park those are brilliant works, especially going five furlongs. His last work on a very foggy morning was nothing short of spectacular. Taken wide coming off the turn, he was flawless, moving with good power, but doing it effortlessly with long fluid strides and topping it off with one of the strongest gallop-out we’ve seen all year. Of course, waiting that late to debut will leave him no room for error or even the slightest setback. And you have to hope he handles the sometimes quirky Tampa Bay surface. But looking back to his maiden romp and then winning the Kentucky Jockey Club, and watching his recent works, I’m starting to feel he might be a more special than many people think.
5. Blackout Time (Kenny McPeek, Not This Time — Beauty Parlor, by Elusive Quality)
No. 5, 6, and 7 are going to slug it out in the Rebel and they are extremely difficult to separate, so I’m just going by potential talent and brilliance based on what I’ve seen, even though he is more of a question mark. This is such a deep field I wouldn’t be shocked if they all get beat. It’s been a long wait since his vet scratch the morning of the Breeders’ Cup, but he is finally ready to get back in action. Southwest winner Silent Tactic is coming into the race off only 23 days, but there are several others shipping in from out of town and are fresh. McPeek has given him three straight five-furlong works, the last two at Oaklawn after having trained at Fair Grounds. Following a bullet five-furlong work in 1:00, he had his final drill Saturday, going an easier 1:01 4/5. He is one of those horses from last year who looked to be on the verge of stardom after his impressive maiden romp and a huge effort finishing second to Ted Noffey in the Breeders’ Futurity. But we’ll never know what he could have done in the Breeders’ Cup. Now, he gets his chance to move up the Rankings with an impressive score on Saturday. But more important than that, he just needs a strong race to help get him to a peak performance on the first Saturday in May.
6. Litmus Test (Bob Baffert, Nyquist — Study Hard, by Malibu Moon)
Yes, he had been pointing to the San Felipe, but Baffert, as is his custom, runs whoever is doing great at the time, and that often results in late switches. That is the case here. He had planned on running Brant in Saturday’s Rebel, but off the colt’s most recent work, he felt he wasn’t ready for that race. With Litmus Test working a half in a sharp :47 4/5, it was decided to make the last-minute change. This looks like a tougher spot than the San Felipe, but Baffert said, “He’s doing great and this will be a good test for him,” If there was one positive note this week for Litmus Test, it was Blacksmith, runner-up to him in the Los Alamitos Futurity, finally breaking his maiden by almost four lengths last week. Litmus Test only beat him by 1 1/2 lengths, but we know Blacksmith has ability and brilliance by running a spectacular “2” Thoro-Graph number in his career debut. So as is the case with a number of 3-year-olds this year, we really don’t know how good Litmus Test is, but he has always been Baffert’s main Derby hope, so that at least is a ringing endorsement. But for now Baffert is just looking to win a big pot and let his horses sort themselves out.
7. Silent Tactic (Mark Casse, Tacitus — Magical Sign, by Gun Runner)
He should be sharp for Sunday’s Rebel Stakes after working a half in :47 2/5, second-fastest of 43 works at the distance. Remember, though, he is coming into this race off a shorter rest (23 days) due to the week delay of the Southwest Stakes. As a horse who comes from far back, he likely will need to be sharp with not a lot of early speed in the projected field, especially with Brant a late withdawal. There are several stalkers like Soldier N Diplomat, Class President, Bravaro, who also is entered in the Fountain of Youth, and the Kenny McPeek-trained allowance winner Honey’s to Blame who have tactical speed. Blackout Time also should be sharp coming off a layoff and Class President is coming off a fast sprint, so perhaps the pace will be contentious enough to set it up for his powerful late charge. Silent Tactic has shown he can handle different surfaces, so I wouldn’t think track condition will play a major role. Remember, this is still a prep for the major prep, so what is important is to see him coming fast at the end. Whether he gets up is basically immaterial if you look at this in the scope of the Kentucky Derby.
8. Commandment (Brad Cox, Into Mischief — Sippican Harbor, by Orb)
All the speed figures have him as the horse with the steadiest improvement, and after two months since his victory in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes against questionable opponents, he finally will try to take another step forward, this time against better competition. But the field did not come up particularly strong, although we don’t know for certain where Napoleon Solo will run and how he will come back off an injury. Commandment’s Beyers have jumped nine points and then 10 points to a 91 and his Brisnet speed figure also jumped 10 points from an 86 to a 96 in the Mucho Macho Man, with his late pace figure going from a 75 to a 98. Finally, his Thoro-Graph numbers have gone from a “12” to an “8” to a “5 1/2.” So you can see that same steady improvement in all three speed figures. But what I want to see most of all is that same explosion in the final furlong he has shown in his last two races, where he lengthens his stride and quickly pulls away from his opponents. He isn’t pace dependent and can stalk any kind of pace and still have a lot left at the end. But again, he has to show it against better horses and having been away for a while.
9. Napoleon Solo (Chad Summers, Liam’s Map — Atomic Blonde, by Scat Daddy)
He’s going all in on the Fountain of Youth and did not enter in the Gotham as originally planned. The Fountain of Youth field is a bit up in the air even after entries were drawn, with several of the horses possibly being scratched. The main threat looks to be Commandment, with Jackson Hole, who we have been high on, also a threat, along with the speedy Swale winner Solitude Dude, who is fast enough to test Napoleon Solo early. But as I’ve been saying, if Napoleon Solo is as good as he looked last year, especially in that freaky Champagne romp, and he wins impressively going two turns, he could be a potential superstar and no doubt will land in the Top 3. But he will first have to show he has returned as healthy as ever after his injury last year, can either rate for the first time or withstand pace pressure from Solitude Dude, Jackson Hole, and Rockies Balboa, and have enough left to hold off the expected closing charge of Commandment. And who knows what to expect from Chief Wallabee if Bill Mott decides to run him off one start. The bottom line is, if we see the same horse we saw in the Champagne, there is no reason to think he won’t run this field into the ground the same way. But, thinking Kentucky Derby. I still would love to see him save some of that speed for the end.
10. Plutarch (Bob Baffert, Into Mischief — Stellar Wind, by Curlin)
With Litmus Test now heading for the Rebel and Brant’s immediate future still in question, that could leave the door open for Plutarch to jump into the San Felipe picture. As Baffert said, right now he is still sorting out his potential Derby horses and it is all about winning big races. And what is left for the San Felipe at this point is only a small handful of proven 3-year-olds worthy of Derby consideration. And if Litmus Test should under-perform on Sunday, Plutarch would move to the head of the Baffert class. He is just now coming into his own and figuring out who he is, despite having six starts already, all at a mile or longer, and leaping back and forth from grass to dirt. The San Felipe likely would pit him against Intrepido for the fourth time, as well as Secured Freedom and So Happy, who is looking to stretch out his speed to two turns following two sprints. Also, Brant, as well as Boyd, might be ready by then, and Baffert also mentioned the maiden winner Potente, who has been working brilliantly, as a possibility. But as far as versatility, toughness, and getting good at the right time, Plutarch is the most fascinating of Baffert’s horses.
11. Reagan’s Honor (Cherie DeVaux, Honor A. P. — Rutile, by Medaglia d’Oro)
How’s this for a surprise? I said I’ve been looking for something exciting, and he may be it. I admit he is a pure guess considering he hasn’t faced any proven horses and has only one race, likely the Blue Grass Stakes, to get points. But the reason I am taking a shot with him is because the horse I watched crush older horses in a 1 1/16-mile allowance race at Fair Grounds last week was not the horse I watched break his maiden under a hard drive in the stretch after setting fractions of :47 4/5 and 1:13 2/5. This time he was forced to face older horses when a 3-year-old allowance race failed to fill and just floated over the ground with effortless strides while tearing off testing quarters of :22 4/5, :23 1/5, :24 3/5, :and 24, and then cruising home in :06 1/5 to win by 6 3/4 lengths in 1:42 flat, faster than the Risen Star and Mineshaft Stakes five days earlier. His mechanics were flawless and he simply demolished this field that was strung out 33 lengths .His majority owner, Terry Finley of West Point Racing, said, “It’s crazy how he’s matured in the last 90 days. He could be special and the Derby is in play for sure.” Even trainer Cherie DeVaux admitted, “My backup was the Southwest Stakes, and in hindsight that wouldn’t have been a bad spot.”
12. Chip Honcho (Steve Asmussen, Connect — Miss My Rose, by Magician)
He has an interesting Thoro-Graph pattern, pairing “8’s” then “7’s” before running a career-best “4 1/2” in the Risen Star Stakes. After being bogged down in mediocre numbers, at least pairing up his new highs, he finally took that big jump forward to a good striking range when stretching out to 1 1/8 miles. He also made a similar leap in his Beyer figures. So, for a horse who many thought was too slow, going by his speed ratings, he showed in the Risen Star he is a serious horse who is dangerous on the lead, can fight when challenged, and showed he is better the farther he goes. He has an abundance of class and stamina in his male and female families, both through U.S. and European influences. His paternal grandsire Curlin won the Breeders’ Cup Classic and his maternal grandsire Magician won the Breeders’ Cup Turf. The more you look at him the better Paladin looks.
KNOCKING ON THE DOOR
With so much activity this weekend and the good chance of there being many changes, it would be futile to keep ranking horses like CLASS PRESIDENT, JACKSON HOLE, and SOLDIER N DIPLOMAT, who again drew the outside post, and stretch the Rankings to a Top 15 or 20 when they will be answering all the questions about them in a few days. They have all been ranked and any one of them are capable of winning, so it just doesn’t make sense to have eight of the top 15 ranked horses running in two races. That makes it nothing more than pot luck. All of them are worthy of a ranking and things obviously are going to change after next week. We have been high on all three of the above horses and have stated their attributes a number of time already. And the underlying question is can STRATEGIC RISK, once high on many Derby lists, rebound off that inexplicably poor effort in the Southwest Stakes?
But I have to single out Class President for one reason. Strictly from a wagering standpoint he would my bet at 10-1 on the morning line. While the shorter priced horses look stronger and are more accomplished, at this price, or possibly higher, I would take a shot with the unknown horse and the fact that he is coming off a drop back to a sprint, which has always been one of my favorite betting angles. If he gets beat here or proves he’s not ready to handle horses of this caliber, it certainly isn’t going to be a shock. But considering how much room there is for improvement and the sharpness angle, having to chase one of the fastest 3-year-olds in the country at a distance way too short for him, he just might be worth a bet, if not to win then to spruce up the exotics.
We stated in the intro that we haven’t seen that big spark yet. And we have been using Beyer figures more than usual this week because they were available on the past performances of the Future Wager horses. So for all the Beyer pundits I will use those figures to give some kind of overview of this crop of 3-year-olds. Let’s just say that if you’re going to get excited over a horse’s Beyers they would have to be 95 or higher.
First off, of the 37 U.S.-trained horses in the Future Wager pool, only one has run a triple-digit Beyer, and that was the 101 run by Brant in his career debut way back in July. Litmus Test ran a 95 or higher twice last year. Four other horses who have run a 95 or higher Beyer — Emerging Market, Powershift, Englishman, and Iron Honor — have made only one start in their career, and obviously are at a huge disadvantage if they are trying to make the Derby. Three of the horses who ran that fast a figure this year did it in sprints, That leaves only one horse of 37 who has run a 95 or higher Beyer in a two-turn race this year, and that is Nearly with a 98 in the Holy Bull..
In addition, 21 of the horses have never even gotten out of the 80’s, and that includes the winners of this year’s Southwest, LeComte, Jerome, and Withers, with the Robert B. Lewis winner getting a 90. And perhaps what is most important, in addition to losing the huge favorite Ted Noffey, is that a number of last year’s major stakes winners and potential stars, such as Napoleon Solo, Litmus Test, Brant, Further Ado, and Blackout Time have not yet started. And we only just saw Paladin for the first time last week.
So what does all that prove? It is hoped in the long run nothing, assuming all the fireworks are still to be lit. As we said, this weekend there are eight ranked horses running in the Fountain of Youth and Rebel Stakes, several of them capable of lighting that fuse and turning the Derby trail upside down.
If you’re looking for any other horses in the Fountain of Youth that might interest you and could have some impact on the race, Dale Romans has a fast colt with sprinter’s speed in ROCKIES BALBOA, who is coming off two dominating victories in a maiden and allowance race going 6 1/2 and seven furlongs. How long he can last with SOLITUDE DUDE and JACKSON HOLE in there we’ll see. And if Napoleon Solo again runs a hole in the wind, this should be a wicked pace. Saffie Joseph has Holy Bull runner-up BRAVARO entered in both the Fountain of Youth and Rebel, and it would seem the former is the more logical spot and would set up better for his tracking running style, but that $1 million purse is awfully attractive and Saffie Joseph already has two horses in the Fountain of Youth. I also have to mention CHIEF WALLABEE again. Running him here would not be your typical Bill Mott move, but this colt was so professional winning his career debut, he looked like a polished veteran. It was the classiest maiden win I had seen all year. If the speed develops as it suggests on paper he could very well be picking them off late. Again, coming off only one career start is asking a lot.
Saturday’s Gotham Stakes drew a field of nine, but doesn’t appear to have any proven two-turn Derby hopefuls. There is the hard-knocking BALBOA, second in the Jerome and third in the Remsen, as the potential horse to beat. Although he was caught in the stretch in both those those races, his pedigree is loaded with stamina top and bottom, so he is a bit of an enigma right now. One interesting colt is the Chad Brown-trained IRON HONOR, who was impressive breaking his maiden going six furlongs at Aqueduct, getting fast speed figures, but hasn’t run in two and a half months. He’s gotten a lot of attention off that win and could wind up as the Gotham favorite. Kenny McPeek, who seems to have a horse in every stakes, will send out the maiden winner RIGHT TO PARTY, who rallied from seventh to win by 1 1/2 lengths, running the mile in 1:40 2/5. He has promise, but obviously needs to get faster. Rudy Rodriguez, who sent out Talk to Me Jimmy to demolish his field in the Withers, will try for another upset with EXHIBITION ONLY, who beat up on a $75,000 maiden optional claimer field by 7 3/4 lengths with first-time Lasix last out.
It will be interesting to get a brief gauge on Class President when the Saffie Joseph-trained HAMMOND tries to improve off his third-place finish behind Solitude Dude and Class President in the Swale Stakes, which followed a victory in the Gulfstream Juvenile Sprint Stakes. I have no idea why FOURTH AND ONE finished so far up the track in the Withers after breaking his maiden by 7 1/4 lengths going a mile at Aqueduct, but he is back to show that was a fluke. We might as well throw in an Ohio-bred, and CROWN THE BUCKEYE did run a big race to finish third, beaten only three-quarters of a length, in the Gun Runner Stakes after destroying Ohio-breds in two stakes. But after setting the early pace in the LeComte Stakes, he tired to finish eighth. So he is another looking to rebound off a bad race. Shipping up from Oaklawn Park for the Gotham is the Peter Miller-trained DIRTY RICH, who won the 5 1/2-furlong Advent Stakes, but was third, beaten 10 lengths, in the Renaissance Stakes. Another in the field is CREOLE CHROME, a Louisiana-bred son of Volatile who is coming off a game head victory in a six-furlong allowance race at Fair Grounds.
With training styles very different now due to so few preps given the Derby hopefuls, it seems as if no one wants to try for points in a one-turn race when two-turn races are so important in giving horses enough bottom to be ready for the Derby. And the Gotham certainly is the race that has suffered the most, as one can see from this year’s field.
We threw a new face into the mix this week with Reagan’s Honor, but remember, not only does Cherie DeVaux have the LeComte winner GOLDEN TEMPO, who has been ranked for several weeks is a more physically robust colt than Reagan’s Honor, she also has a colt we touted last week as a horse to watch in AWESOME GUN, who looked sensational breaking his maiden on Risen Star day. “He certainly is exciting off that win,” DeVaux said. “He trained well, but took some time to connect the dots in his races. I wasn’t thinking Derby before that performance, but we’re now weighing our options with him.” DeVaux also has the aforementioned ENGLISHMAN, who has been working brilliantly, but looks to be way too far behind to be considered a Derby hopeful.
Looking ahead to the March 7 San Felipe, with Litmus Test not running, we are looking at a small field with no major standout, especially not knowing which Baffert horses are going to show up. Of course, if PLUTARCH and/or BRANT run they likely will be the favorite. INTREPIDO and SECURED FREEDOM, both ranked this past week, are listed as possible starters, and we will see if their status is dictated by how many Baffert horses show up or whether their connections would simply prefer to ship east. That leaves the San Vicente winner SO HAPPY as the only definite starter right now, and regardless of who runs they will have him to catch, as trainer Mark Glatt is anxious to stretch the son of Runhappy out. With speed on the top and bottom part of his pedigree, he will have to depend on broodmare sire Blame if he is going to be a Derby prospect. But if he has the class to go with his speed, he could be tough to catch in the 1 1/16-mile San Felipe, especially working a brilliant six-furlongs in a bullet 1:11 3/5 Sunday with Mike Smith aboard. Glatt said he is not a great work horse so he worked him in company with graded stakes winner Mi Hermano Ramon.
The question surrounding the Tampa Bay Derby, run the same day as the San Felipe, is who will challenge Further Ado? Danny Gargan is still looking to run TALKIN, and lilkely will scratch him in the Fountain of the Youth unless enough horses drop out and the temptation to run is strong enough. He basically entered in the Fountain of Youth to help fill out the number of horses entered. One of the more fascinating horses who could show up is CANALETTO, who was so impressive demolishing a strong maiden field. Another possibility is THE PUMA, who was an excellent second to Chief Wallabee in his career debut after getting left at the gate and then didn’t have the best of trips when finishing a well-beaten third to Renegade in the Sam F. Davis Stakes. Whit Beckman could run HULKAMANIA, an impressive four-length maiden winner at Tampa going seven furlongs in his career debut.
Saturday night’s John Battaglia Memorial on Turfway Park’s synthetic surface. elevated a couple of horses into the Derby spotlight. The desperate neck winner, GREAT WHITE, trained by John Ennis, bounced back from a fifth-place finish in the Leonatus Stakes after a terrible start, and this time had a good stalking trip, took over nearing the top of the stretch and just held off the late closing FULLEFFORT. The runner-up’s big late run has now come up just short in both the Leonatus and Battaglia, but he likely will be the one to beat in the Jeff Ruby Steaks at the longer 1 1/8-mile distance, especially trained by Brad Cox. Itr must be noted, however, that also closing fast and finishing third, beaten only 1 1/2 lengths, was the 88-1 MAXIMUS PRIME, who is still a maiden after eight starts.
If you’re wondering how fast a race AL HARAM ran in the Saudi Derby, he was given a “3” on Thoro-Graph, which is the fastest number by a 3-year-old in a stakes this year, and second only to Nearly’s allowance victory. One would hope that will change after next weekend’s stakes.
A few weeks ago we discussed the brief but frustrating career of the U.S.-bred SALLOOM, an impressive maiden winner in Saudi Arabia who has had constant gate issues. It was thought after his runaway victory they were behind him, but apparently they are not, as evidenced by his antics before the Dubai Road to the Kentucky Derby Stakes (formerly the Al Bastakiya Stakes), which resulted in his scratch. With Salloom out, it was anybody’s race and the late-closing BROTHERLY LOVE, who was a big disappointment in the UAE 2,000 Guineas, came flying late to win for the trainer-daughter team of Jamie and Saffie Osborne. By an Australian-bred sire, out of a Chilean-bred mare, Brotherly Love, a half-brother to Heart of Honor, runner-up in all three legs of the UAE Triple Crown last year, obviously is a colt who relishes the longer distances. Now he likely will take on Al Haram and UAE 2,000 Guineas winner SIX SPEED in the UAE Derby, along with whatever American horses show up.
I wouldn’t expect too much from the Hyacinth Stakes, run at Tokyo Race Course Sunday, in which the 22-1 shot LUCKY KID, owned and bred by Godolphin, held off the late run of DON ERECTUS to win by a neck. Both horses were coming off a weight-for-age race at Tokyo, finishing eighth and 13th, respectively. Much was expected of ARCADIA CAFE, coming off a solid third in the Cattleya Stakes on November 29, but the son of Into Mischief coujld do no better than sixth.
The Bob Baffert-trained BLACKSMITH, runner-up in the Los Alamitos Futurity, finally broke his maiden by defeating four rivals going a mile on February 20. The son of Liam’s Map, a $525,000 yearling purchase, had no trouble winning by 3 3/4 lengths at 3-5, but his :26 2/5 final quarter still leaves some doubts about whether he fits in the Derby picture, especially with Baffert well stocked with Derby horses.
For all those with a daughter who had PAVLOVIAN’S dam named after her, in his first six starts his Thoro-Graph numbers ranged from slow to slower, in others words from a “12” to a “21.” But after running a “17” he improved to a “9 1/2” in the Cal Cup Derby and then to an “8” in the Sunland Derby. So he’s finally moving in the right direction, but obviously still has a long way to go before his numbers are competitive with the leading 3-year-olds.
Racing historian, author, and award-winning retired journalist for the Daily Racing Form and The Blood-Horse, Steve Haskin was inducted into the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame’s Media Roll of Honor in 2016. Known for his racing knowledge and insightful prose, he has been an exclusive contributor to Secretariat.com since 2020.
The Tampa Bay Derby is shaping up to be a beauty this year. Did I just say that?
Canaletto, Powershift, The Puma and Further Ado are expected to be entered on Wednesday. Must be a long time since the race had four with that much talent.
Bill Mott might just have a Derby horse, Chief Wallabee.
Yes Lynda. Chief Wallabee is the only Mott’s horse with real chance to make it to the Derby. Steel is another good prospect but is way behind…
I was just thinking about how atypical has been the handling of the Chief by Mott. The son of Constitution would be the first one with NO 2-year-old campaign running in the Derby for the Hall of Fame trainer.
Remember how unexpected it was when Mott decided to run Hofburg in the Derby with only 3 starts… it would be the same for the Chief.
Maybe they are waiting for the Floridad Derby for a final decision.
5 lbs more than CP and maybe 2more lbs of mud
I wonder if I am prejudiced against Renegade because he ran in the Sam F Davis at Tampa. Probably.
Hopefully, Todd P runs him somewhere else in his last prep. The Arkansas Derby, Bluegrass, or even Louisiana could give us a better reading on him.
Paladin was moving away from him in New York.
One thing to keep in mind about Renegade is Ted Noffey. The latter was intended for the Fountain Of Youth. Horses are on a schedule and when a defection occurs just four weeks from a target, it’s not so easy to replace.
Pletcher confirmed that Renegade’s next start will be the Arkansas Derby.
I don’t really understand all the love for Silent Tactic. He had all the momentum but couldn’t get past Class President. I see that as a negative.
Silent Tactic looks like the type that could run up into the tri or super on Derby Day though.
I feel pretty good about those 2 Florida horses moving forward. And you know that Chad Brown will have Paladin ready to run his best race on the first Saturday in May.
Silent Tactic had 5more lbs and probaly 2lbs of mud.
Plus he came flying 5 wide off the turn he just couldn’t the head bob on the wire or this isn’t a conversation. Class President got the jump on him but Silent Tactic ran a winning race. With Tacitus his Sire & Tapit Grand Sire he’s gonna love the long Churchill Downs stretch going 1 1/4 when the rest throw up their Donuts….
For what it’s worth, Silent Tactic was wheeled back in 3 weeks. Also, he went 4 wide turning for the home stretch and the margin was a nose…..not to mention the 3rd place horse Litmus Test was 5.5 lengths back.
Some of these 3 year olds will improve a great deal between now the First Saturday In May. Silent Tactic could very well finish in the top three. I will not give up on him.
No doubt Silent Tactic has something to build on.
Silent Tactic ran well.
Waiting on the entries for the Tampa Bay Derby next Saturday.
It’s been 19 years since Street Sense ran in the Tampa Bay Derby. While there have been some decent winners since, the Tampa Bay Derby is not really the winning route to the Kentucky Derby. But they give you 50 qualifying points if you win the Tampa prep.
I’ll let others argue about that.
Sure, the Tampa main track is usually described as “quirky”. But it seems to me that it would be a great spot to get a sure entry into the Kentucky Derby. 50 points usually does that.
I like the Tampa turf course just fine. Tons better that anything at Gulfstream IMO.
Churchill doesn’t use common sense on point races they had a race in England last week only 4 horses entered in it to be eligible for Euro Ky Derby. Hell they give 100 points for winning the race at Turfway Park run on a rubber track lol….
The Beyers are up for the Rebel. Only a 91 for both Class President and Silent Tactics — 10 points less than the figs for the FOY. Wish the ThoroGraph figs came out as soon as the BFS.
Black type, not that you use BSF as religion, this is just an overall point. If horse racing is still around in 10-20 years, people will be dumbfounded as to why handicappers still used or gave credence to Beyer Speed Figures in 2026.
As I have learned on this blog, they are an instant snapshot of speed. Even Steve uses them. As I said, I’d like to know what the ThoroGraph figs say when they come out.
I understand…I simply cringe when I see anyone using them. It’s my issue!!
Apparently you are not alone!
Beyer numbers are useless.
Ms Blacktype when you look at the Beyers I am going to go back to my old Forrest Gump analogy and that is ” It like a box of chocolates you never know what your going to get ” take them with a grain of salt.
Especially with this year’s Derby horses. They are literally all over the place. I have a theory that the BSF given are higher at some tracks than others. Also, that they’re really based on what the horse that finished third or fourth got in the previous race.
Silent Tactic now 18-1 in futures and CP now 20-1…
Secured Freedom now 40-1, was 80-1
So Happy also adjusted: now 35-1, was 50-1
That’s more like it Biggy, the 2 well behind CP and ST were very highly regarded.
I agree, Joe; yesterday’s post-race odds didn’t make sense…
The Fountain of Youth and Rebel looked pretty similar…looking at it a second time—Class President and Silent Tactic were moving well! Coming away late…..Class President is in, now, on his first two turn race….
Silent Tactic carried 5lbs more, than Class President….
Somebody alluded to it earlier that Tactics’ Thoro-Graph number might be better than Class Presidents.
Astonishing that more attention is not paid to this within American racing – 5lbs would equate to around 3.5 lengths in conventional handicapping terms so it was a serious performance by Silent Tactics in the circumstances. Beyer ratings also have no regard to the weight carried by a horse which is yet another abnegation of basic physics !
First of all congrats to all who Class President and Silent Tactic as both ran super races and are sitting pretty. As for Litmus Test if you read my previous post this week I did not want him on the frontend and what happens he ends up on the front end. Prat ( he is no Bill Shoemaker ) had to control the pace which he was not able to do. When I saw 23.06 for the first qtr and 46.62 for the half I pretty much knew then it would be pretty hard for him to win. Got to hand it to Johnny V as he was holding CP back at the beginning of race sort of forcing Prat’s hand to go to the lead Baffert did not have him fit enough to run 1 1/16. I am not sure why he did not get a race in him between now and last race as he did work him out steady from then. He will benefit from the race but so will Class President and Blackout Time. who ran a credible race for being away so long but time is sort of against him.
As for Litmus Test and were and what Baffert does with him I am sure it is up in the air. I have always been on the fence with him. He is a real puzzle for me now.
In next week’s San Felipe Baffert will be running one horse (Brant) that hasn’t run in 4 months and only 2 solid works and another who just broke his maiden and that was only a 6 furlong race. Now if he adds Buetane he might have a chance but how will Baffert run him??? Bob best horse Plutarch is off the KD trail. He has horses but nothing to show for it. A lot of questions for him but no answers
Did you see the first turn? Most of the field fanned out, there was no way they could take him back!
It takes a certain horse to wire a field, two turns, I agree about LT….he wants a target…Class President was close to the pace but he got the target, I’m not getting off the LT wagon, not just yet….looks wise he is magnificent….at this point if he gets in he will fetch a good price–he
And Blackout Time had been away, for months, it is still early …
One other thing about LT. and maybe it just might be me but when he got the lead after the first turn his ears were flickering and did that from I could see most of the back stretch its almost like he is saying were did everybody go???. Another thing it seemed like he was running with his head lifted higher than horses like CP , Blackout Time , Strategic Risk and Silent Tactic, I don’t like that from a horse. Again maybe it just me but that is what it looks like. I would like to hear what Prat had to say after the race. But again I did not want him on the lead. I have since listened to others on Youtube who reviewed the race and thought like you he needs to run at a target , but I will say it again Johnny V ran a smart and tactical race.
With that said I would think that would give him a better opportunity to pull him back.
It’s tough when you train 2yr olds and young 3yr olds so hard. It sure seems that Baffert has lost his touch after Gamine and Medina (RIP).
Matthew R
I tend you agree with you about Baffert especially when it comes to his 3 year olds the last 2 years. Baffert alluded to something a few weeks back and that is he doesn’t have the flexibility of flying his horses out like he used to with demise of Tex Sutton losing his lease on his airplane and have to rely on FEDX. What I don’t understand if that is the case and he has billionaire owners why don’t they buy/lease a plane to have at their disposal. They have got to find a way for it to work. Another things is because he has been successful in the past he has a lot more high end clientele he is trying to keep happy. And I know all trainers have to deal with injuries but he has been hit with some lately that have come at inopportune times. He training pattern has also become inconsistent at time and has basically given up using the 7 furlong and 1 mile workouts. which I always thought were his bread and butter works. But definitely has lost some of his magic.
Matthew, some gloat each year how ‘loaded’ his barn is. However, some trainers have caught up to him. Most likely, Derby winner isn’t from his barn this year.
Watch out for Boyd he may enter him also from long layoff. I know he liked him at one point when he shipped him from California to Churchill last fall for a listed stakes after only a maiden race prior & he won. He has shown he can ship & likes C Downs
That was a great stretch dual between Class President and Silent Tactic. Kudos to both horses.
A major reshuffle of the top ten is on the horizon.
Thank you, Steve, for your wisdom in evaluating the performance of Class President in the Swale. You said that running in the the Swale was an “old school” move by Pletcher, moving CP back in distance to sharpen him up for speed in a subsequent longer race. You liked that even though he was beaten 3 and 3/4 lengths by Solitude Dude, he strided out beautifully after the finish. You even had enough faith in Class President to rank him 10th in Week 3. Well, this is one reader who paid attention (and Joe P.). I bet Class President @ 75-1 in Pool 4. When he went off @ 8.50-1 in the Rebel, I bet #20 to win and had a $3 exacta ticket on CP and Silent Tactic. I was lucky to collect $330 on the race.
Class President was indeed sharp today, as expected. He kept tract of Litmus Test and made his move around the turn when Johnny V. asked for it. The stretch duel with Silent Tactic was thrilling as ST put his head in front, but Class President would not be denied. He showed a lot of heart in a well-deserved victory. Me thinks the best is yet to come as CP has both speed and stamina. I’m anxiously awaiting the speed numbers for the Rebel.
Thanks again, Steve, you’re the best!
Dewey , we are so proud of Class President. Congrats on your win wager and EX hit. I only used CP and ST in the Rebel in my P5. I won the first 4 legs and was alive in the final leg with a 5-2 and 3-1 shot on my tickets . A 49-1 horse killed my likely 2K pick5 ticket. I was very upset after coming so close, yet I realize that I have Paladin at 22-1 in KDFW2 and Class President at 50–1 in KDFW3. I bet both of those to win as well as boxing them with each other and All Others. So happy that I could have 2 live shots to win in the KY Derby. Your 75-1 on CP in the KDFW is awesome Dewey. Let’s keep him happy and healthy because he’s in now with the 50 points. I hope he retains John Velasquez who also rides Nearly. Pletcher hinted that he could train CP up to the Derby which I would find hard to believe. He needs another race IMO, the next one would be at 1 1/8, which he will definitely handle. Also liked that CP galloped out with Silent Tactic who has a big stamina pedigree.
Thank you Dewey. Makes me very happy you made .money on him and bethim at 75-1. Well done and good luck
Strange: WH just updated odds:
ST 30-1
CP 35-1
Much higher than Commandment and Chief Wallabee
Blackout Time now 65-1!
Steve:
One of the reasons that I keyed CP today (had $15 on winner, hit exacta and $1.50 version of the trifecta) is the ‘old-school’ Swale prep; nice to see it worked out!
Also must be maturing because I am on CP in futures (at 125-1) and am excited to be on a Pletcher horse for the first time! He is worth $4,800 if he wins Derby
My apologies, biggy. I wrote the above comment before seeing your post. Glad that you were also paying attention when Steve alluded to the ‘old school’ move by Pletcher. Happy to see that you were able to grab a more generous price than I got. Cha ching! Good luck to us! After what we saw today, I like our chances.
Hi Dewey!
No apologies necessary; very happy to see old-school prep work!
I like our chances too!!
Congrats on your win on CP Biggy! And that 125-1 on CP is very live for you. That 35-1 in Vegas is nuts, he should be 10-1 IMO after he beat that loaded field today. My 2 KDFW hopes are Paladin at 22-1 and CP at 50-1, very happy about their Chances as win contenders.
Hi Joe!
Thanks very much!
Really excited to see next round of prep races…I agree that the 35-1 odds on CP are too high…Good luck in your futures bets!
2 years in a row, we are on the same horse!
Beautiful!….
John Velazquez performed a Hall of Fame ride on Class President in the Rebel. Silent Tactic ran great again this time running closer to the pace. Both horses will climb in the rankings specially after the remarkable 6.22 for the final 1/16. Thoro-Graph should be better for Silent Tactic though as he was 4 wide in the last turn.
Congrats to Steve who recommended Class President for every bet.
Litmus Test and Blackout Point needed the race but they need to improve a lot in the next two months to keep their Derby aspirations alive.
The Derby panorama remains wide open as there have not been any earth-shattering performance so far. As per usual, we will have to wait for the 200-point preps to get better picture of the contenders.
Nelson, didn’t see that coming! Congrats on at breaking even as indicated.
Thanks Mike… my Rebel tri was nothing to brag about: $60 cost for the combinations and payoff of only $142.
The one I would love to get was the Trifecta of the next race _with a $9,000 payout… But all my “smart” combinations did not work there…
Hi Steve
I just finished re-reading your take on Class President, in the KOTD segment, which was spot on. Usually, I read your top contenders quite thoroughly, but kind of skim over those that are mentioned in the KOTD segment. That will no longer be the case. I intend to pay as much attention to those horses in the KOTD as well as those in your Derby Dozen.
You’re the man, Steve.
Hi Bill… Please, scan through Steve posts below and you will find he recommended Class President for all purposes…!
I hit a trifecta combination with Litmus Test in third and five horses for first and second… not a big payoff but enough to break even today.
Hey Nelson
I didn’t bet the race, but I would have used Silent Tactic as my top pick. His stretch duel with Class President was epic. I suspect we’ll see a rematch in the Arkansas Derby coming up on March 28th. In the meantime, we have the Tampa Derby Derby and San Felipe coming up next Saturday. We could see Bob Baffert’s top Derby prospect coming out of the San Felipe. Stay tuned.
In closing, I’ll just say that Steve Haskin has forgotten more than I’ll ever know about the sport of Horse Racing.
Yes Bill… the Tampa Bay Derby and the San Felipe look to be very intesting contests. They will be tough tests for The Puma and So Happy looking to climb the ranks.
I’m in total agreement. I’ve been touting So Happy since his impressive win in the San Vincente. Money Mike rated So Happy off fast fractions (22.03, 43.56, 1:08.41) before drawing off by 2 lengths, for the win in 1:21.12. Not too shabby for a colt coming off a maiden win. His pedigree reflects speed on top (Runhappy) with class and stamina on the bottom (Blame).
I’m not sure how you feel about the X-Factor Large Heart gene, but there’s a good possibility that So Happy “could” be a carrier of the gene. His dam, So Cunning, “could” have inherited the gene from her sire, Blame, who follows the zig-zag pattern back to Liable/Seeking the Gold/Con Game/Buckpasser/Busanda/War Admiral.
There are a lot of skeptics out there that dismiss the large heart gene concept, but I’ve noticed that Pedigree Analyst, Laurie Ross, mentions it from time to time, when she feels it applies to any given colt. So, I’m not alone when I give some degree of credence to the large heart gene concept.
Bottom line, from my perspective, So Happy has bright future moving forward.
BTW, I’ve got a $20.00 win wager on So Happy, at 53-1 in Derby Futures Pool 4.
Bill, I have not paid great attention to the theory of “X Factor”. I only know that it all started after Secretariat’s necropsy found his heart to be twice the normal size.
I have not read Marianna Haun’s controversial book “The X Factor” but surprises me that she was a turf writer; not a geneticist.
Anyway, the theory was intended as a breedin tool and I know that some people have tested it with mixed results.
Also confusing is that it was proposed that Secretariat could pass the X factor only through his daughters’ progeny; but how they explain the exploits of Secretariat’s sons and daughters in the track. i.e. Kingston Rule won the Melbourne Cup (2 miles) in record time. Risen Star, Lady’s Secret and General Assembly could not have had a big heart according to the theory but they were clear exceptional runners.
Obviously, there is a gene responsible for big hearts. However, not all horses with that advantage are good runners; and there are numerous great runners with normal hearts. So, there are many other factors determining superior horses.
In mapping out the families of Deputy Minister and Bernardini some can find the X Factor while others just resort to dosage theories to explain their propensity to transmit stamina through their daugthers.
Labeling historic sires as X factor carriers really require a lot of studies…
In the case of So Happy a simple scan can measure the size of his heart; but at this juncture a gritty attitude to win tough fights is the real heart I would like to see in him.
We shall see.
Thanks Bill. I find my live price horses are mentioned .more in KOTD in m.ore detail..
You’re welcome, Steve.
As I mentioned, I’ll be paying closer attention to the horses you mention in your KOTD segment. I’ll be looking forward to your take on the San Felipe, coming up next Saturday. So Happy could give the Baffert colts all they can handle. We’ll see.
Today, he worked 4 furlongs in 46.80 (3/78). It appears the Mark Glatt has his colt in fine form.
I’ll be so happy if So Happy wins the San Felipe. 🙂
Although I want to hear Steve’s analysis, I thought the Rebel was impressive for both the winner, Class President, and runner-up, Silent Tactics. I was disappointed that Litmus Test went with the fast pace; at least he held on for third. It was a good first out for Blackout Time, who is still in the mix for the Derby off that performance. I don’t see any excuse for the rest of them. I’ve become ruthless in my old age about potential Derby horses.
Agree 100% Ms Blacktype;
Will be interesting to see speed figs from Rebel vs FOY
Looking forward to Blackout Time’s next race also…today was fine for first race of the year…
I share your ruthlessness, in my older-age too!!
LOL, Biggy!
Great call on Class President.
Oaklawn track is playing very fast today. This could favor Litmus Test in the Rebel. One of the salient traits of Flavien Prat is his ability to effectively handicap races. The only strong closer is Silent Tactic and the other rivals are front runners or stalkers, so, it seems obvious that Litmus Test will be rocketing from the gate to ensure a rail trip. His natural speed would let him open up enough lengths to fend off Silent Tactic’s powerful final kick.
Litmus Test’s trio of recent 4-furlong drills indicate he is sitting on a sharp effort today.
I will be trusting Flavien Prat in my bets by keying Litmus Test in the exotics.
2-Litmus Test
7-Silent Tactic/4-Blackout Time/6-Strategic Risk/8-Rancho Santa Fe/
Safe trips and good luck to all.
Nelson ,
From what I have seen you are correct about Oaklawn playing fast so far. And as far as Prat he is holding all the cards. Let’s hope he plays them right.
Good Luck today !!!
I was really impressed by Prat’s rides on Tejano Twist and Explora.
The time for the Rebel must be around 1:42 going by the clocking times of the previous races….
Good luck in all your bets DTS.
Nelson, as with FOY, down to two horses for me- Silent Tactic and SR. Taking Tactic. Good Luck to you!
Good choices Mike… If three or more jockeys become agressive and force a fast face then Silent Tactic inhales the field in the homestretch. The son of Tacitus is the most exciting deep closer in the Derby trail since the exploits of his uncle Sierra Leone.
The inbreeding to A.P. Indy is certainly showing in Silent Tactic’s talent.
Strategic Risk could surprise everyone by replicating his Smarty Jones performance.
Good luck to you as well!
Thanks, good points! Feeling the race possibly sets up for Tactic.
I like Litmus Test for the win, today, am using both of Mark Casse’s horses, Strategic Risk at 12-1….he might have tired, from a lack of conditioning, during the cold spell…he also had a wide trip that day…..I thought it was too bad to be “real”, unless he went off form, we shall see….
Currently, Commandment is listed at #8 on Derby Rankings – Week 6.
Pending today’s running of the Rebel Stakes, I would think Commandment will move up several notches, possibly at #4, in Derby Rankings – Week 7.
With respect to the Rebel, I’m hoping Rancho Santa Fe can pull off an upset, at 12-1.
In Pool 2, I’ve got a $20.00 win bet on RSF, at 83-1. In addition, I keyed him on top, with Boyd (22-1), Renegade (63-1) Into the Beast (213-1) and Rebel Instinct (34-1) in a $4.00 exacta wager. Rebel Instinct hasn’t worked since his maiden win, so he’s probably a toss.
Rancho Santa Fe, by Tapit, out of Family Tree (G2 winning router) by Smart Strike is a Gary and Mary West homebred colt, in the capable hands of Brad Cox and will have Irad Ortiz Jr. in the saddle. Tapit has yet to sire a KD winner, will this be the year? Maybe.
My take on the Rebel Stakes
After handicapping the Rebel Stakes I feel it is Litmus Test (LT) race to lose. In order for him to win though I feel Flavien Prat will have give him best imitation of a Bill Shoemaker ride. Bill was the master at judging pace and many said what made Bill so great is that he had a clock built into his head and he had great patience in his rides. Prat will need to resist getting sucked into a fast pace. When I looked at LT’s workout pattern for this race if someone was to ask me who was training this horse ( I know it is Baffert ) I would have said Todd Pletcher. These are not typical Baffert workouts. I have to hope Baffert has been giving him strong 1 1/2 to 2 mile gallops between works.
When Baffert was asked were he expects LT to be in the race all he answered was he expects him to be forwardly placed I hope not the frontend unless Prat can really control the pace.
The mystery in this race is Strategic Risk (SR). Why did he run so poorly in his last race. Nobody knows and even the trainer had no answer and I am just going to draw a line thru his last race and will be expecting better.
How do I expect this race to shape up. I am expecting at the start of the race to see the following…. Coming out of the gate I expect Soldier N Diplomat , Rancho Santa Fe and Class President to be going for the lead with LT and SR tucked in right behind them. The rest will trailing behind those two with Silent Tactic (ST) pretty close to last.
LT I expect to start making his move on the far turn getting to the lead at the top of the stretch with SR in hot pursuit (unless he gets the jump on him in the far turn. I expect LT be in the lead about mid stretch and holding off SR and ST at the end.
This will be a real test to see what LT is made up of… Is he a contender or pretender?
On other news … Brant and Potente to be entered into San Felipe with Boyd and Buetane possible but no definitives given for sure. Intrepido is out as trainer said Robert Lewis stakes run took too much out of him and will be pointed for the Santa Anita Derby. So Happy and Secured Freedom also expected to enter and both had nice works recently for the race.
Not sure if anybody noticed yesterday but Burnham Square ran yesterday in his first start of the year in a turf race at Gulfstream and was a fast closing 2nd. Was good to see that.
Good luck to everyone in the Rebel Stakes as it looking to be a good one.
One other thing with Bravaro scratching from the 1 post in this race will stewards move LT from the 2 slot to # 1 and make him start from the rail or will that 1 stall remain empty and LT start from the actual # 2 stall?
They have the rail, if he breaks on top I think he will go…. doesn’t appear to be that much early speed, in the race, Prat is pretty good at getting early position, he may opt to sit back and then come up alongside, but with that rail draw…they could find themselves on the lead, I like his chances today ..
Yes Matthew, that is the way I saw it not a “true” front runner in the race. One horse I forgot to mention was Blackout Time. He also should have been put under mystery horse. I wish he had a race under his belt this year as I was very high on him before the Breeder’s Cup. His works are ok but nothing special. I don’t expect him to win but if he does he will be coming out of the clouds to do it. He should get a lot out of this race and be ready for the Ark Derby. If he does win he is a BEAST !!!!
As of Litmus Test post I was hoping he would keep the 2 hole. I don’t want Prat to use too much horse to get positioning . Wish he had Honey’s to Blame and Time for Music to his outside instead of Class President but that is the luck of the draw.
With the Tampa Bay Derby on the horizon next Saturday, I looked back at last year’s TBD. Just 7 starters. But 4 of them were thought of as pretty good horses at the time.
1st- Owen Almighty, 2nd-Chancer McPatrick, 3rd-Hill Road, and 4th-Patch Adams.
Some disappoint among those horses since then.
Hopefully, they get more than 7 starters this year.
While a large hotel was destroyed, by a missle strike…Dubai raced on, real life and a great horse, Dubai announced their meet will continue as planned …
Commandment and Chief Wallabee did run faster than any other 3YO in a stakes this year: 101 Beyer for the winner and 100 for Chief Wallabee. As Tim reported below, Solitude Dude got a 97. These are fast figs for the end of February, and all three are quality horses.
The FOY definitely gave us good data on a lot of horses, but I’m curious to see what Steve thinks of SOLITUDE DUDE’s third place – he was there with the CHIEF and COMMANDMENT at the wire. Saffie said in Jan that despite coming from a champion miler, he thought this horse’s “good” mind “will help him get further”. Also, “I don’t know how far he can stretch out. By Yaupon you’re obviously going to question it… But he’s out of an Into Mischief mare, and they can do anything.”
Yaupon was neither a champion (no Eclipse awards) nor a miler (he ran as far as 7 furlongs). Saffie had suggested after the Swale that Solitude Dude would be a one turn miler type and IIRC was reluctant to go 2 turns but understood why his connections wanted to try. He got a 97 Beyer yesterday and is going to be a very interesting customer in the sprint division this year.
Seems my semantics were off on Yaupon. He’s still regarded as one of the best sprinters in 2020 & 2021, won 6 of 8 starts and is the only son of Uncle Mo with 4 triple-digit Beyers on dirt (more than Nyquist & just as fast). I guess my point was Saffie did try him in out in the FOY for a reason (for the connections likely) but seemed to show up well going 8.5f (to these amateur eyes). In any event, I just read that Saffie is “leaning” towards pointing Dude back to G1 one-turners.
The Dude ran huge….Prat gave him a good ride, put him in position to win, his trainer suggested distance limits, he may not get Prat, next time, but he did run well….
Shelly, regarding comment, “ and they can do anything”- a lot of people say a lot of things.
With Bravaro running at Hallandale Beach yesterday, Litmus Test will break from the rail late this afternoon. Not BB’s favorite scenario ever under any circumstances. Still, I think that Flavien Prat is just the guy to pull it off.
I want to see Litmus Test finish off the race better. If he gets bottled up inside and doesn’t get out in time that’s fine. But I want to see him coming hard at the finish.
Commandment and “The Chief” look like they are on about the same level as Paladin. Let’s see how the numbers come back.
Commandment came inside which was “dead” all day. I’ll give him some props for that. But don’t sell “The Chief” short. He had to go wide around the turn. Both horses will remain on my Derby radar.
It can be argued that “Napoleon” was wide the whole way. But I didn’t like him going in and feel the same about him after the race. He should have stayed in New York for the Gotham.
The Tampa Bay Derby and the Virginia Derby the next 2 weeks. I’ll be a hero and predict that the Derby winner won’t come out of either of those races. No offense.
It would have been nice to see a new face in the Derby like Chad Summers. Maybe next year. Again, no offense.
My nice exacta hit was by two fillies that had inside trips, was the inside that bad?…I thought the FOY was a pretty solid prep, inside rally-ers always look better, to me, as horses just do not like to do that….I only saw the race one time, I noticed Prat’s colt somehow had got inside the other speed to his left…I thought Solitude Dude ran a good race, as did the place horse…Commandment impressed me, with his will to win the race,cand his going inside, as ‘Dude got tired and drifted out…
I noticed the jockeys riding way off the rail down the backstretch and into the stretch. But riding wide around the far turn can be bad as well. See Tyler Gaffalione on Royal Crescent in the 5th race. Got nailed on the money. That one hurt.
There always seems to be some sort of a bias at Gulfstream on all 3 of their tracks. Not my favorite venue.
Yes I noticed the wide paths….When it rains DURING the races …I have noticed they ramp down the inside lanes FIRST, and always have used this knowledge to great advantage, at the Los Al Quarter Horse meet, but that’s only if it STARTS RAINING, during the races, and I think that was the case yesterday at The Gulf—I use this angle at Oaklawn, as well ..if it beging pouring rain during mid card, I play the inside posts, where at Oaklawn the inside becomes the place to be, there’s only one tractor tamping down the surface, they begin on the inside, meaning it gets less water ..
As others have stated Good observation Tommy McD…. Saw that all day !!!
Irad must have saw it and thought himself if your going to give it to me I’m taking it…. not sure if he had much of a choice though from where he was at.
Good observations,Tommy! For me,going into the race, undecided between only two horses- CW, Commandment until going with the former. NS is a good horse, hopefully we see him other races in near future.
Well I didn’t break the bank in FOY but I did come out a winner. Played a $1 Trifecta (told you I was the last of the big time gamblers) by boxing Commandment and Chief Wallabee 1 & 2 and the rest of the field for 3rd … If only I had Bill Dawson’s bankroll !!! LOL
All I will say about Napoleon Solo is I wish he could have been run in the Gotham ( I think he would have made short order of that field … it would have been a confidence builder and he would have 50 pts towards the Derby ) but it didn’t happen. Were he goes from here is a good question. If his connection are still thinking KD I guess the Wood would be the next step otherwise I would be thinking Pat Day mile and then some other small derbies. Solitude Dude ran a very good race … in fact held on better than I thought he would but he just maybe a cut under the leaders in the rankings. Unless his trainer can make him into a mid pack stalker ( by this I mean a race like what Commandment did today) or a stone cold closer I don’t give him much of a chance in the Derby if he is on the front end. His connections have some pondering to do. Good luck to them.
I think Commandment and Chief Wallabee the difference today is that Commandment got the shorter trip on the inside. I think if you flip them Chief Wallabee would have been the winner. They are that close !!! Florida Derby is shaping up to be a real exciting race. Now to sort out tomorrow”s Rebel which will take a real litmus test to figure this race out !!!
On a another note Gotham was a nicely run race for Iron Honor and and another heart breaker for Crown the Buckeye. Connections need to just find an easy couple of races he can win…. He tries so hard !!!
I had CW. For Commandment, how’s that for “circling the drain”?
If you read my earlier post that this could be the race he breaks his losing streak…. Stevie Wonder
Yeah, saw it earlier. However, for weeks bashing Cox horses.
Solitude Dude gave it the good fight but failed to carry his speed the FOY distance.
Commandment has been high on my Derby Watch List ever since his maiden win back in in November. In Pool 3, I boxed Commandment (23-1) with Brant (23-1), Renegade (37-1) and today’s Gotham winner, Iron Honor, at 60-1.
In Pool 2, I’ve got a $20.00 win wager on Commandment, at 69-1.
Chief Wallabee knocked me out of my superfecta wager, finishing a close 2nd to Commandment. It appears that Napoleon Solo has not fully recovered from his tendon injury, which was the big question going to the FOY. I doubt if he’ll remain on the Derby trail,
I didn’t hit any of my exotic wagers today, so tomorrow, I’ll just set back and watch the Rebel, (no bets). However, I do feel that Silent Tactic is the horse to beat.
Safe trips to all.
Bill, I feel Solitude Dude is a very good horse — just not a Derby horse. I’d love to see him in a shorter race, like the Matt Winn. Goof luck on your futures with Commandment.
Thanks, and good luck to you as well.
I agree with your assessment of Solitude Dude. The Pat Day Mile might be another option moving forward.
Yes, the Pat Day is what I meant — the Winn comes later.
Finally! Two really good horses stepped up to the plate in the Fountain of Youth. I’ve been waiting to see something like that for months.
Yes !!! it been a while Ms Blacktype.
I didn’t hit my bets today, but my Derby futures horses won the Gotham and ran 1-2 in the FOY.
I have Iron Honor at 75-1; he is now 22-1; I have Commandment at 30-1, he is now 9-1 and I have Chief Wallabee at 50-1, he is now 10-1.. .really hoping I can cash something on Rebel tomorrow!
My Rebel futures horses are: Blackout Time, Silent Tactic, Class President, and Strategic Risk
On eve of Rebel, here are WH futures:
Paladin 8-1
Commandment 9-1
Chief Wallabee 10-1
Nearly 11-1
Renegade 12-1
Boyd, Silent Tactic 14-1
Canaletto 15-1
Blackout Time 18-1
And you have Reagan at 100-1….you’re in excellent shape !
Thanks, Betsy! I am feeling pretty good at the moment re my futures.
I wouldn’t have gotten the 100-1 on Reagan’s Honor if not fir you: so Thanks again!!
You’re welcome ! Good luck !
Nice win by Commandment! As for Napoleon Solo, the connections should focus on 8 furlongs or less.
Chief Wallabee showed he is really good. He was moving much better than Commandment in the last turn.
Interesting to see what Bill Mott has in mind for the son of Constitution moving forward.
Nelson, I agree. Chief Wallabee impressed me much more than Commandment because it was only his second race. Not to knock Commandment, who is a very good horse. I hope Bill is willing to try to Florida Derby with him. It might be a thrilling finish between the two.
Nelson, today was coin flip between CW and Commandment. Went with CW,he ran great considering lack of experience. Something to move forward with. Commandment, impressive as well.
Yes indeed Mike… the owners of Chief Wallabee were right to coax Mott to run in the FoY. Their angle must have been that the horses in the field having three starts would not make much difference to the one start of the Chief.-i.e. in terms of experience and foundation.
Have you seen the picture of the finish published in many sites … Commandment with his ears pricked up … I wonder what was in his mind at that very moment.
Astute,on your part regarding possibly reason to go ahead with CW for FOY. Yes, saw picture of finish as well. Value your opinions regarding knowledge of the game. What’s next for CW?
I would follow Commandment where ever he goes with the conviction that the next time my horse would be in better position to defeat the Cox horse. Commandment would likely be the favorite in the Florida Derby but Chief Wallabee will be more than ready to beat him and Pletcher’s Nearly as well.
Agreed! Honestly, like both horses. My instinct tells me CW is a little better.
Was hoping Solo would make it to Derby. Unlikely!
I see Napoleon Solo doing really well on turf.
Perhaps better suited.
People come and go, understandable.
Sure miss Davids.
Hope all is OK.
I miss him too, Lynda. Davids contributed a lot to this blog. I wish he’d check in to let us know that all is well. Please reply, my friend.
I agree; really enjoyed his comments and insights
In this weekend’s three major stakes, I like Commandment Balboa, and Silent Tactic. But maybe even more important than who wins is what we learn from these races. I think we’re going to learn a lot.
My Gotham $24 Superfecta play:
1-Balboa (for the win!)
2-Hammond/3-Crown the Buckeye/6-Iron Honor/9-Dirty Rich
Safe trips and good luck to all.
Good Luck Nelson… I like your picks!!!
Expected better than that from Balboa…. maybe he doesn’t like cold weather? Hardly effort in this race.
Rigth at the start I knew he had no chance today.
My thoughts on Napoleon Solo is that I am a doubting Thomas on this horse.but believe you me I will be a BELIEVER !!! if he win the FOY in wire to wire fashion and if they change tactics and comes from behind I will be a BIGGER BELIEVER. My doubts come from the big time difference with “Talkin” in his performance in the Champagne and Remsen for the first 6 furlongs, I could see 10 to possibly 15 but 20 to 25 lengths just seems to me out of the question. Paladin and Balboa ran great races in that race along with Renegade ( I thought the jockey had him just a little to close to the front early in the race.) The frontrunners did not die in that race.
Right now as I type this they are in the 9th race and weather is still clear and track is fast. Times on the dirt seem a little slow and as Nelson pointed out Mott had a winner with a horse name Steel who the race caller said came from a different zip code to win the race.
If between now and FOY race if surface conditions change to SLOPPY it may help Napoleon Solo as he may like it and be like a duck who takes to the water but as of now I will stick with my choices of Commandment and Chief Wallabee. But if Napoleon Solo does win as I said…… I will be a BELIEVER and be Happy!!!
On another thought I wonder what Baffert figured out about Cherokee Nation? That was quite a turn around race for him.
Good Luck everyone on your bets today. Just a few more race before the FOY
One other thing I noticed at Gulfstream today and that is there are no 2 turn “dirt” races before the FOY. I wonder why that maybe ?!?!
Just as I got done with my post Mott send Knightsbridge out in the Gulfstream mile and he runs it in 1:35.58 and the horse was under wraps last 100 yds….. tractors are doing their job !!!
Bill Mott got another good prospect in Steel (Tapit-Snuggs and Kisses by Soto). The gray made up more than 15 lengths to win his debut at a mile in the 6th at Gulfstream today. It seems like Mott is now winning more with debutants. Steel was 18 to 1 as there were a couple of good horses for good connections in that race.
If the Belmont Stakes was at 12 furlongs, Steel, could have been trying to extend the record of his sire in the test of the champions.
I would like a horse with P:aladin’s running style than one with Steel running style at the 12 furlong Belmont . JMHO . Steel might better at the 10 furlong Saratoga Belmont Different race strategies for both.
Rebels Romance just won Dubai Gold Cup
Oh, darn. I knew I should have taped the international feed.
Short posts, long story on computer issues.
Frankel son won.Maktoum Challenge.
Maybey Diva dead from colic
Makybe Diva the only three-time winner of the Melbourne Cup was 27.
As it usually happens with great mares her progeny has not inherited a modicum fraction of her running prowess. We will have to wait for her next generations to see a good descendant.
RIP brave one.
Correction
Maybey Diva
Sorry
Makybe Dive
Appleby was tearful after this win… It was Rebel’s Romance’s 21th win in 31 starts. The son of Dubawi looks good and still running well at 9 but if you go by the post race interview, his trainer is fearful of any mishaps happening to Godolphin’s treasure.
I was surprised to see Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum in attendance for the big horse. Perhaps, he is giving solace to his people to fend off anxiety over there.
Tks for additional info Nelson.
Restricted to using this tiny cell phone I can barely see
LOL
Tried to figure out the likely winner of the FOY this morning and landed on Solitude Dude, despite having a brilliant sprinter for a sire. Also noticed his fourth dam, Supercharger, is the mother of 2010 Derby winner Super Saver. I also figure Napoleon Solo and Commandment will make up the trifecta, although I’d be thrilled to see Chief Wallabee break up that lock.
BTW, all air space into and out of the UAE is closed because of today’s strikes against Iran. This may not be the year to take the middle east road to the Derby.
Hi Ms Blacktype
As expected, Talkin scratched out of the FOY, which has reduced the field to nine runners. I plan on taking a shot at the Rainbow Pick 6 and will single Solitude Dude in the final leg. Fingers crossed.
Good luck.
Good luck to you, Bill!
Thanks, Ms Blacktype.
At John Shirreffs’ memorial, Santa Anita’s Jay Cohen played “Amazing Grace,” followed by the “Call to the Post.” I love that.
Jay Hovdie wrote a beautiful piece on the service on Blood Horse. It brought tears to my eyes, especially his retelling of Shirreff’s last visit to see Bobby Frankel, who also died much, much too soon.
Cherokee Nation – 100 beyer , 103 E speed figure , 137 HRN speed figure.
1:34.50 for the mile,,,,,,,Plutarch was 1:37.02 in the Bob Lewis.
Something to think about.
Need to see another race without Lasix
Also , Cherokee Nation was 80-1 at William Hill yesterday.
This morning at 6:59am Vegas time he is now 50-1
I already asked Bob about Lasix and he says there wont be any difference without out. He has finally figured this horse out. More to come on Monday.
Thanx for the reply Steve
That 1:34 2/5 two turn mile….probably was better than a 100 Beyer, and they didn’t want to go too high—the horse looks at least 1200 lbs, he is a giant three year old…. there’s a new kid in town!…
Bob is late to the party again …(With Cherokee Nation)….however–Bob’s program is not one of “maintenance drills”, they are put thru paces….this horse looked good, yesterday….
He has run many times, sort of a rarity that it took six starts, to break his maiden….but he is a very large horse, is pointed to the SA Derby, and will likely be favored..
Hey Mathew:
Haven’t seen the video yet, but it sounds like Cherokee Nation just woke up. Seems true of a lot of these 3YOs this year. At least he has some bottom with all those races.
He ran in the Robert Lewis and basically showed nothing.
Glad to see Paladin back on the work tab at Payson. Looking forward to Class President in the Rebel. Those 2 are my KDFW hopes. 22-1 on Paladin. 50-1 on Class President.
The 1:07 4/5 clocked by Napoleon Solo for the 6 furlongs in the Champagne Stakes brought memories of my first equine hero. A striking son of Sadair out of C’esta Cela by Sword Dancer named Torrejon (VEN). He was the most powerful and beautiful chestnut my 15-year-old eyes had seen. His beautiful blaze and four stockings made his blazing speed look more poetic. Strides painted in light.
The race that came like a vivid movie to me was Torrejon’s fifth career start and his first Stakes against the best 3-year-olds at a mile in February 1978. Torrejon’s jockey jet-propelled him to stunning split times of 22 3/5, 44 3/5, 1:10 1/5. A slow 29 3/5 final quarter erased his 10-length lead, and slipped to close third.
Considering that the best sprinters of that period averaged 1:12 and change underscores how extraordinary that 6-furlong sectional time was in that super heavy track.
A change to a jockey famous for his flair to save speed and Torrejon learning to relax early in his races led him to win the first two legs of the Triple Crown easily. A coronation felt inevitable but in the last leg a rogue rider went in a Kamikaze mission literally knocking the star numerous times shattering the promise of a third Triple Crown champion in Venezuela.
Torrejon recovered well from the incident and went on to win the most pretigious Stakes at 10 and 12 furlongs ultimately earing Horse of the Year honors.
For the sake of brevity I am saving my remarks about the exploits of Sadair, Petare and Sword Dancer, but it is clear that my hero, Torrejon, had the genetic license to be one of the greates horses in Venezuelan history.
As a disclaimer, I am not suggesting that Napoleon Solo is destined to rule over his peers. I am only pointing out that a perceived mile, in the right hands and under right rides, can rise above expectations. Only time will tell.
If following horse racing for half a century teaches you anything, it is that greatness is a rare gem, but unfulfilled promise is everywhere.
Wonderful remembrance, Nelson. Your last sentence is beautifully put, and so true.
Thank you Ms Blacktype. I appreciate your reply… forgive my nostalgic notes as it seems like the seventies were Golden times every where … and the longing for yet another big star is never dying.
True enough Nelson (the last sentence).
Cherokee Nation Dramatically improved today with Jaramillo , Emisael aboard.
Santan Anita Derby next ?
Santa Anita Derby
I am happy for Emisael Jaramillo who decided to move from Florida to California and is doing really well. He is fighting hard with J.J. Hernandez and Kimura to be top rider this season at Santa Anita.
Jaramillo is one of the best jockeys in the history of Venezuelan horse racing with a knack for clean breaks and improving speed horses. This trait makes him a great fit for Baffert horses… I hope the rider keeps getting good opportunities.
Nelson – Jaramillo I believe, is gonna be huge out west. As evidence by the prominent barns riding him. With respect to Baffert horses, Baffert has a knack to subscribe to up and coming jocks relocating, Bejerano, Espinoza, Hernandez, Gonzalez to name a few.
William Hill has some odds adjustments just before big weekend:
Paladin 7-1
Nearly 10-1
Renegade, Chief Wallabee 12-1
Boyd, Silent Tactic 14-1
Commandment, Canaletto 15-1
Further Ado 18-1
Blackout Time, Napoleon Solo, Jackson Hole 20-1
I like Hammond in Gotham;
Bravaro in FOY;
Silent Tactic and Class President in Rebel
I have 7 horses in my futures stable running this weekend (4 in Rebel)…
Good Update, a few of these will be adjusted again after the weekend.
Thanks
Definitely should have some clarity after Rebel on Sunday
I like your picks Biggy. Bravaro has a big upset chance in the FOY and he drew well. I will only be using Silent Tactic and Class President in the Rebel. Rooting hard for Class President, I bet him at 50-1 in KDFW3.
Thanks Joe!
Good luck this weekend…with a bit of racing luck, hoping CP exits weekend in single digit odds in futures!
Hey JoeP
I hope you played an exacta wager on Class President and Silent Tactic, it paid $46.80 for a one-dollar wager. Your Pool 3 Futures bet on Class President, looks mighty good at 50-1.
Good luck.
Thanks Bill. I wish I did play the EX but swung for the fences and lost the P5 after winning the first 4 legs by a 49-1 shot in leg 5. Still feeling good about the Derby though Bill because I do have Paladin at 22-1 in KDFW2 and Class President at 50-1. I bet both to win In those pools as well as boxing them with each other and with All Others In an EX. Congrats on your KDFW EX last year of Sovereignty/Journalism. I needed Journalism to win or needed an All Others horse to finish ahead of him. Unfortunately for Journalism, Sovereignty is a beast. Hope you hit some of your KDFW bets this year Bill, fun times ahead.
One final look at the weekend.
FOY ‐- What interests me the most are the two questions, is Napoleon Solo the freak we saw in the Champagne and can Chief Wallabee look like the quintessential Derby horse I saw in his maiden win even though this is not where Mott wanted to run him? But either can shoot right up near the top with a big effort. Chief Wallabee still ran the .most impressive maiden race I’ve seen from a ky Derby standpoint and Napoleon Solo’s Champagne was unlike any race I ve ever seen from a 2yo.
REBEL — Stictly from a betting standpoint, two horses i have been high on, Class President and Soldier N Diplomat, look enticing at double digit odds and either would be tough to run down if they get the lead. I would include them in all bets.
GOTHAM — They all have to outrun Iron Honor. Lots of speed and Right to Party should be flying late.
Looks like having only one start this late means little these days. The game has changed but we just don’t know who the Derby horses really are anymore.
Steve, yes, many horses are going with basically -1 start or (1) test, they are taking the path of least resistance to get to March, the Oaks runners’ past performances are even worse, 89 nominations, 7 maidens, 25 horses are not even working out. So 60 days out, we have a pool of 50 Oaks horses.
My concern is that, from a historical perspective, half the horses will flop this weekend, and more will flop in the final round, then divert to a summer campaign. Too many horses are consolidated to a few barns, and they are hand-picking the ones to enter in selected races.
Very well said. No one keeps us updated on a daily basis as you do on your podcast, especially with all the video.
Watch him all the time!!!
Just play along.
Mr. Haskin, wish Chief Wallabee was starting earlier on the Derby trail.
My takes on a couple of races
The John Battaglia
Nice race by the Great White. Did not see him make that big of an approvement and with the price he paid shows it that a lot of others didn’t either. Not sure what happen to Street Beast as he was sitting pretty until he got midway thru the far turn and just quit and ended up last. Good trips by Fullefforts and Maximus Prime. If all 3 run in the Jeff Ruby Steaks would not be surprised if we see a repeat performance. Two Out Hero had a bad stumble out of the gate and as he looks to like to run near the front that took away any chance to get to the lead. Not sure if he will try the JRS but he looks like he might make a promising turf horse. I like his breeding and it sets up for it. Hope he came out of the race ok along with Street Beast. If Fullefforts makes to Derby I will definitely like his chances of making it into the exotics as CD stretch is almost 100yds longer than Turfway.
This weekends Fountain of Youth.
In this race I think everybody is waiting to see how Napoleon Solo runs. Although I expressed that I would have wanted him to run in the Gotham unfortunately the weather did not cooperate. So he is going to run in the FOY. At the beginning of the weekend it looked like Gulfstream was going to have a perfect day for the race but now it looks like 60% of rain on Friday and 97% chance on Saturday the day of the race with a high of 82 and the Gotham Stakes looks like clear skies with the temps about 45 degrees for the high. It was pointed out about Napoleon Solo on another YOUTUBE horse handicap site and that is…. who did he really beat in the Champagne.? Talkin, Universe and Not Our Time finished 2nd, 3rd and 4th in that race and none of them have done anything since that race. And I am now questioning his time for the CS. it was 1:07.88 for 6 furlongs and 1:34.57 for the mile with Talkin time for 3/4 listed at 1:09.10 and his mile listed at 1:35.68 basically a little over 1 second slower. Now the Remsen run at 1 1/8 mile and again at the same track but 2 months later and a track listed as “fast” the leader at 6 furlongs was Balboa in 1:12.53 and Talkin who was running 5th at the time his time was around 1:14 so almost a 5 second (slower) difference ….. Did Aqueduct turn into quicksand in December???? Something just doesn’t seem right !!!!
For the FOY if the track stays dry I am going to go as my top 2 horses as Commandment and Chief Wallabee. Can Cox finally get a winner??? …. stay tune !!!
If the weather turns the track to “sloppy” I will just sit back and watch the race as it could be anybodies race as none of these horses have run on an “off” track. It will probably favor frontrunners like Jackson Hole , Napoleon Solo and Solitude Dude.
Longshot pick for this race…… Rockies Balboa !!!
So you question the professionals and clockers at the Spa, now?
Like none of the pros would have raised questions? But only the amateur commenter on Sreve’s blog can see the truth. Of course.
Believe what you want to believe
Paper tiger…………not!!!
Sov, earlier comment intended for you.
Does it ever change?
To answer your question, even though it is on the same track, for the “winter” meet, they do add sand and other chemicals to the surface; it is a “different” surface, and it is usually about 3-4 seconds slower. If the weather cooperates, they remove all the extra stuff in April for the Wood Memorial, but one year with really bad weather, they left all the chemicals, and they ran the wood in 1:55.
I’m just referring to the surface, not the horses or the time. I did read that two people did a frame-by-frame of the Napoleon Solo race with another 1-mile race that day, which had the same starting gate, and the frames matched up. The horse that one that other 1-mile race hasn’t run since.
Yes, the surface is not the same in November, December, January, February, March, even though the same track
Do with this information what you will, I’m just a guy on the internet 🙂
Steve
In 3 career starts, Solitude Dude’s Thoro-Graph numbers have remained steady at 5-5-5.
Do you think that he will regress or improve on those numbers in the FOY?
Thanks, Steve.
I dont mean to avoid answering your question or Betsy’s or anyone else’s but I start working on my column well in advance, especially when there are several big races and it will require a lot of analysis and juggling the Rankings. What you both ask are going to be discussed next week and it seems counterproductive to discuss ahead of time what im writing about in a few days. Its like scooping yourself. If it is something you really need to know immediately rhat cant wait for the column you can email me at sehaskin@aol.com.
Thanks, Steve – that’s fair and understandable !
No problem, Steve.
I completely understand. It probably makes more sense to post those Thoro-Graph numbers after the FOY has been run, rather than taking an educated guess as to their progression, (regress, improve or remain steady at 5-5-5), before the race has been run.
Many thanks for the reply, Steve. I’ll be looking forward to your in-depth analysis on Derby Rankings – Week 7.
John Shirreffs and Christophe Clement have both been nominated to the HOF. Fingers crossed.
Two worthy candidates.
John being such a history buff, it’s a shame they could not get him in while he was living! 39 grade one wins…a Derby….and an all-time mare, who was a project, to say the least— he was worthy…
Amazing how years passed over for HOF.
Global Aviator has scratched out of the FOY, and Talkin is expected to scratch as well.
That will reduce the field to nine entries. The official odds have been released and are as follows:
Jackson Hole, 8-1
Rockies Balboa, 20-1
Talkin, 15-1 (probable scratch)
Commandment, 2-1
Bravaro, 8-1
Chief Wallabee, 9/2
Napoleon Solo, 7/2
Bull by the Horns, 30-1
Solitude Dude, 5-1
Lost Money, 50-1
I remain convinced that Solitude Dude is the horse to beat, and his odds are more enticing than Commandment/Napoleon Solo.
Solitude Dude checks the most boxes, IMO.
Safe trips to all.
Agree.He’s the fastest!Distance?
Thanks for the reply, Gerrynole
Yes indeed, the FOY distance, at 8.5 furlongs, is lone check mark missing from Solitude Dude’s impressive resume’. I predict that he’ll receive that check mark subsequent to the running of the FOY.
Stay tuned.
Bill I like your writing these lineups, like you do, especially where you say “probable scratch”…it helps me out! I’m looking forward to seeing Napoleon As oli on Saturday, I think he might make them all cry “uncle” (hehe, that joke is for us older guys!…)..
Thanks, Mathew W
With respect to Napoleon Solo’s Thoro-Graph numbers, he went from 8 1/2 in his initial start, to a very impressive 2 1/4 in the Champagne Stakes. After suffering a “minor tendon injury” during the running of the Champagne, he was put on the shelf by Chad Summers for 4 months. Has he fully recovered from that injury, and can he replicate the form he displayed in the Champagne? These are the questions that should be answered, subsequent to the running of the FOY.
As Steve mentioned, Commandment’s Thoro-Graph numbers went from 12 to an 8 to 5 1/2 which shows he’s moving in the right direction. He opened at 5/2 on the morning line and is the deserving favorite.
That said, I remain aboard the Solitude Dude bandwagon, with steady Thoro-Graph numbers of 5-5-5. If he can maintain that TG pattern, or improve on those numbers, he’ll be hard to beat in the FOY, IMO.
I’ll key SD on top, with Commandment and NP underneath in a very large Trifecta wager. That is: 10/ 4,7/ 4,7
My superfecta wager will be as follows: 4,10/ 4,10/ 1,5,6,7/ 1,5,6,7.
In addition, I’ll flip that over, which will be as follows: 1,5,6,7/ 4,10/ 4,10/ 1,5,6,7.
Good luck, Mathew W.
Steve, you’d mentioned Reagan’s Honor’s Thoro-Graph jump
Do you know what it is?
Thanks!
What”s the boards opinion of Englishman’s chances of making it to the Derby?I’ve got some small future bets on him,$5 to win and $1 exacta box with Paladin,Silent Tactic and Potente.Thanks in advance.
He has 4 workouts all year, none at 5 furlongs. I think he is fast, but I don’t believe he was ever on the Derby Trail. He would have to go in off the layoff of 6 months straight into a 100-point prep.
Might do a 5 furlong workout 2/28(just wishing)Ant way,thanks for your reply.I watch your u tube.
So ..Blackout Time was held out of The Breeders Cup by regulatory vets…but he’s A-OK to run, this weekend?…I wonder just what was his problem THEN, that is not a problem NOW?…(Very confusing(…
It was discovered he had bone bruising after a check up for after the Breeders Cup.
Thank you! Bone bruising is serious! I like the colt, but will play against his winning, on Sunday…
It was bone remodeling, not bruising. On a scale of 1-10 with ten being the most serious, Mc Peek rated it a 1 or 2.
Thanks for the clarification
Not before?
Blackout Time is fine. He had a minor case of bone remodeling which is not a big deal. The long layoff will be his biggest challenge for the win on Sunday.
Thanks for the correction Andre…. knew it had something to do with the bones
Steve…. Never laborious, always so informative….
I have a lot of love for Paladin and the newest arrival to your list, Reagan’s Honor….. it’s wide open so far.
I did have a question for you. Do you ever do a piece on the fillies who will run in the Kentucky Oaks.
Thank you.
Good luck to all and safe racing
Delrene in California
I’ve never had the time trying to keep track of all the colts. I will see how the Oaks trail looks in a month. Right now im not seeing any standouts but I will have to look at them more closely.
Churchill Downs announced Plutarch off the Trail –
I just alluded to that below. Baffert said not to say anything until tomorrow. What else is new? Lol
Very disappointing news to say the least. Plutarch was my top Derby colt from the get-go. Now, it’s back to the drawing board. I’ll be giving the winner of the FOY, Rebel and/or the San Felipe a hard look as a replacement for Plutarch as my top colt moving forward. In addition, if Renegade hits the wire first in the Tampa Bay Derby, he will certainly deserve consideration as a top contender, IMO.
The last I checked Baffert could have five entries in the San Felipe. From my perspective Boyd and Brant appear to be the top two contenders in the race. We’ll see.
Bill I heard Renegade pointing to Arkansas Derby. Canaletto and Further Ado the Big 🐕 pointing to Tampa.
Thanks for the input, Derbyologist
Steve mentioned the Arkansas Derby, but I not sure if that’s definitive decision by Renegade’s connections. After winning the Sam F. Davis in such a convincing manner, I thought the Tampa Bay Derby would be the next target.
Bill, sorry to hear about Plutarch. I know you had a lot invested in him…literally !!! That is why I gave up on KDFW years ago . . Got burned a few times like this. Good luck on your next endeavor, hope it is a winning one !!!
Thanks for your concern DTS
I fully realize that Derby Futures bets are very risky, but sometimes the return can be quite profitable. Last year, I boxed Sovereignty and Journalism in a $50 exacta wager, in one of the early Derby Futures Pools (I can’t remember which one it was). In addition, I hit my superfectas for over $2K and cashed out for over $6K.
That’s way they call it gambling.
Nothing ventured, nothing gained, right?
Best of luck moving forward, DTS.
“What is it they say? Nothing venture, nothing…ventured.”
Too bad about those Derby investments on Plutarch, Bill. I always saw him as a Belmont horse, but then they don’t sell any enticing futures on the Belmont, do they?
No worries, Ms Blacktype, I’ve got a few other Futures wagers (at big odds) that are still alive.
Did anyone else catch the Kentucky Derby Conditions Stakes earlier this afternoon at a mile on synthetic at Kempton? Godolphin’s HIDDEN FORCE, trained by Charlie Appleby, made mincemeat of a short field. He only ran hard for about 20 yards, but what a move! As you would expect, he’s regally bred. The son of Frankel is out of UAE Guineas winner Winter Lightning (a half sister to double Dubai World Cup winner Thunder Snow). Could be a contender for the Derby, but his connections may prefer staying in the UK for the Guineas and Epsom Derby.
Before we publish next week keep an eye out for a leading Derby contender off the Derby trail. Maybe can make the Belmont. Not quite ready to go public.
Was also just a tick off the track record owned by Olympiad
DRF just reported Plutarch off Derby Watch due to body soreness-still in light training but won’t make the Derby. Is this who youmean?
Yep. Was told by Bob not to say anything until tomorrow. Typical.
Maybe he told you before CD?!
Maybe he just doesn’t tell the truth?
Steve, Reagan’s Honor received a 9- for the Ragozin sheets, so pretty significant, no? Nod he faces a class test in the Blue Grass
Wait until you see his Thoro-Graph jump.
Can’t wait!
He also got a 114 US Timeform. Craig said final time was 117, but the pace knocked it down. My friend explained that RH took a breather from 1/2 to 3/4 – which is encouraging because it shows that he’s amenable to his jockey, sbd not speed crazy
It will be interesting to see if they take him off the pace a bit in the Blue Grass …I don’t really see him as a true speed horse
In a year of unknown qualities ..a year where nobody has run fast…..I understand why Paladin is #1, it’s only a matter of time, for Chad to win a Derby, I thought Zandon was home free, but he didn’t want that tenth furlong, Sierra Leone was best, in my opinion, yet he caused his own Derby Demise……Paladin has done no wrong ….and yet I like Nearly more…..lots of horses can grind out a late finishing victory, like Paladin does…FEW horses can go “fast and last”, like Nearly did, Todd will give him one chance, at qualifying—a sign of confidence! I can “see” him opening up on them, and winning the Florida Derby, then repeating in The Derby—going up to Laurel and take ng The Preakness, in front of a sparse crowd…Nearly has a quality I like the most, in a race horse, he held sway, after pushing fast splits….a quality I admired about Skip Away, I saw a bit of that in Nearly—this is one of those years…reminds me of 2012, lots of nice three year olds, but nothing that stands out—For me…Nearly is the “outlier”, he paired up good races, went two turns, most of all he showed he could go fast and last—only good horses can do that..
Would you be offended if I said Nearly is more suited for 9 furlongs, but not for 10 furlongs?
Never offended, Zanytactics!—Horse Racing is the sport of many opinions, I say mine…and I welcome all others …
I think that you are correct that the Triple Crown will be a battle between Gun Runner and Not This Time progeny. The outcome might be complicated by the number of high quality colts GR has in the 2026 pipe line. Both lines are full of two turn genetics.
This weekend might offer some clarity.
I agree with what Mr. Haskins wrote.
Nobody has shown a winning #.
So far most look slow. Slow for the average Derby winner.
It could be one of those years.
Nearly has banged together a couple of nice Beyer’s,will have the one race, to qualify…I like his chances…
Nearly’s split time fro 6f to the mile was 27.10.
Paladin’s was 24.84.
In the past, rivalries were already established by this point. The connections place no value on these races, other than stepping stones to the big race and the big payday. I’ll admit my ignorance to these horses, and, yes, my interest is minimal. Actually my interest in racing in general has waned, possibly a reflection on me or the state of racing. Nothing wrong with Steve’s columns. I think the game has just changed too much.
Just curious, why is Napoleon Solo so hyped for the FOY this Saturday? Didn’t even crack Steve’s top 7. I realize he’s a fast horse and has done nothing wrong in his two prior races. Now he gets the acid test going around two turns.
He could very well win this race. IMO, he’s not a 10 furlong horse.
I constantly have called him a potential freak but he isn’t what I would call a hyped horse considering the questions still surrounding him.
We shall see this weekend. Kudos to the connections for finding out in the FOY, rather than the Gotham.
Uh …. look at his splits in the Champagne. Because if he can carry that speed, he is SOMETHING.
Not many two year olds shade 1:35, in August…(or was it September?)….looks like there will be other speed, on Saturday….but this guy looked like a rare breed, last year….
In principle I would consider any Champagne winner likely to become a sprinter or a miler given the careers of its many many winners this Century… Or it could be just cases of extreme precocity. However, even if Napoleon Solo has not changed much from last year still his performance in the Champagne is good enough as is to defeat many of his rivals today.
Anyway, it is not hard to be biased after watching a young horse blaze six furlongs in 1:07 4/5.
I agree with Sovereignty and Mathew in that Napoleon Solo feels different …
We shall see.
So, Nelson, do all the 9f Remsen winners win the Derby?
At two, you cannot pigeon-hole a horse because most of the races are not route races
Good point Sovereignty… at the end of the day everything depends on the talent/potential of the horses moving to the Derby.
You remind me that all the Triple Crown champions of the last Century started their careers running 4.5, 5, 5.5 furlongs and progressed steadily sometimes to the Champagne (1 mile) and and to the Laurel Futurity (1 1/16)… they never ran 9Furlongs as 2 year olds…
And the Garden States also at 1 1/16 which was the richest race of the world in the 60’s
I really like Silent Tactic but I am not giving up on Golden Tempo and I would love to see Plutarch take another step forward. While he has done nothing but win, I am not a fan of Pladian. Waiting for someone to wow me next round.
I like Silent Tactic, too and am not giving up on Strategic Risk
Silent Tactic has much upside. As for Strategic Risk, stated for couple months that I like him. Thinking both can get 10F.
Hope they both make the starting gate in early Mat..
Me too.
I’m still on Strategic Risk. Last race might just be a throw out race….its all about his next two starts at this point….I’d like to see him put 2 races together where he runs first/second and LOOKS GOOD doing it. Even Mystik Dan had a “head scratcher” on the way to Louisville….
You’re correct regarding next two starts are very important. Still like this horse and waiting for him to totally put it together.
This year’s Preakness will have 4800 in attendance. What? No infield party at Laurel? 1.000 general attendance tickets will be sold for $246 with the rest being sold as a two-day event ticket.
Just saw that myself, Rob. Not very sporting of them!
In a previous comment, I mentioned that I was having second thoughts about using Solitude Dude as my top selection in the FOY. However, upon further review, I’m back aboard the Solitude Dude bandwagon. As of now, the morning line odds have yet to be released, but I suspect Napoleon Solo will be the favorite at 8/5 (or in that vicinity).
If Solitude Dude can carry his impressive around two turns, and hit the wire first, he’ll give Nearly all he can handle in the Florida Derby, IMO.
I’ll key Solitude Dude on top, with Commandment and Napoleon Solo underneath, in a big Trifecta wager. That is: 10/ 4,7/ 4,7.
My superfecta wager will be as follows. 4,10/4,10 on top, in the first two slots, with 1,5,6,7 underneath in the 3rd and 4th slots. That is: 4,10/ 4,10/ 1,5,6,7/ 1,5,6,7.
I’ll flip that over and play an additional superfecta wager which will be as follows.
1,5,6,7/ 4,10/ 4,10/ 1,5,6,7. (just in case Napoleon Solo wins, or if Jackson Hole, Bravaro, Chief Wallabee can spring an upset).
Safe trips to all.
See, I think Nearly can rate and it was only because the horse to beat in the Holy Bull (Cannoneer) was lone speed that Johnny V dueled with him. No choice but to take it to him if he wanted to win. I think Nearly can sit as far off as Johnny wants. Also, he runs the turns as good as any horse I have seen.
First things first, let’s see how FOY plays out.
If Mike Relva gives you a hard time, just remind him how he’s been kicked off all the other sites that allow comments for being an a-hole.
Such a shame, everyone so loved his “horsey visit” stories.
Thanks for the reminder, Clownskill.
I’ve come to the conclusion that these heated exchanges between Mike Relva and myself, serve no useful purpose. Therefore, I’ve decided to refrain from posting any future comments to Mike and will no longer reply to his comments that are directly or indirectly directed to me.
Good luck, Clownskill.
I’ve had dinner with owner of a Derby winner while you prowl and troll boards deploying tons of user names. Your comments were low rent regarding racehorse, Justifreak after trailer accident -when showing no empathy for him or other horses who received injuries, deaths as a result. Also, going to an all time low stating you would eat horse meat. You’re a piece of work!
Oh, I think you need to take all the personal attacks over to that other site and let us have some peace here, if you don’t mind. I only see Relva responding to you, not attacking you, like you have done to him.
Can we please just discuss horse racing?
Thanks
Thanks! Some are self anointed “experts”, who in reality, are nothing more than malignant narcissists.
AMEN!
Youre from that other blog! You know, the one where theres s handful of loudmouth idiots making believe they know the slightest thing about horses. If my knowledge of horses and racing was as pitiful as yours I woild keep my mouth shut!!!
You said it Dom!
Says who?
You mention about playing with a full deck,must be difficult in juggling so many names. Your “friend”, for two weeks in a row,attempted to pull rank on Haskin much to his annoyance. You’re only a reader here ‘Bill’, nothing more.
Attn: Mike (The Parrot) Revla
Your comment makes no sense, which comes as no surprise. Now, I’m totally convinced that you’re not playing with a full deck. My advice to you is to seek professional help. The sooner the better.
Read between the lines genius.
Must be hitting the box wine, you can’t spell my name correctly lol.
In the future, when I post a comment to you, I’ll just use “THE PARROT”. Will that work for you. 🙂
Perhaps you should stick with what little you know and refrain from the personal insults, ‘Bill’.
HAHA….box wine…HAHA… loving it!
Tell ’em, Mike
Seen this ‘movie’ many times.
You commentary seems vaguely familiar.
Doesn’t it?
Steve your columns are the best please don’t feel the need to shorten them your thoughtful
Insights are always appreciated 🙏
I appreciate it Nick thank you. They were several factors that convinced me the shorter the bettor. One of them was a comparison between this year’s Rankings and last year’s.
.
What are you talking about?
Just so you know….from my point of view your commentary is never laborious! Informative, in-depth and interesting, yes…but not laborious.
🙂 Thank you very much Judi. I appreciate that.
Gulfstream has 14 races scheduled on Saturday with an 11:30am start. Did they recently install lights on that track?
The Fountain of Youth will run as the 14th and final race on the card. It could end up looking like the 1988 Breeders Cup at Churchill Downs when Alysheba beat Seeking the Gold in the gloaming.
Before they had the lights! A battle royale, in the near dark! Crossing the wire the light hit them, Alysheba (“America’s Horse”) held that half length the entire way….
I agree that there has been a lack of a spark so far on this year’s Derby Trail. But things could heat up a bit this weekend. I’m looking forward to seeing Commandment and Chief Wallabee run on Saturday and Litmus Test on Sunday.
I was a little surprised to see Blackout Time at just 8-5 in the Rebel. Those works must mean something. I was all set to support Blackout Time in the Breeders Cup Juvenile before the scratch.
Steve Haskin is right to point out that Paladin is more professional than Sierra Leone at this point. Remember that Sierra Leone was still lugging in at this time of his 3-year-old season. Did Chad Brown ever get the credit he deserved for getting that problem fixed?
Iron Honor could be worth watching in the Gotham.
Too bad he didn’t get that lugging in problem fixed before the derby. Horrible egregious foul. Sorry, haven’t forgotten. Forever Young was mugged and robbed.
NO HE WASN’T….its horse racing….SL was affected just as much…inknow FY was rhe “woke” horse but lets get real….
Hello Steve – Paladin sure looks like the goods after his win in the Risen Star. He has yet to run a bad race. I have a lot of respect for Renegade, but Paladin did beat him in the Remsen by 2 lengths going away. Reagan’s Honor certainly is interesting . We could see Reagan’s Honor and Paladin hook up in the Bluegrass. I bet Paladin at 22-1 in KDFW2 to win and boxed him with All Others which will include some very good horses such as Silent Tactic, Reagan’s Honor and Neariy to name a few. Looking forward to the Rebel where IMO the most likely winners are Silent Tactic or Class President. I bet CP at 50-1 in KDFW3 to win and boxed him with All Others. CP can save ground from PP2 with John Velasquez aboard and is tactical and will get the jump on Silent Tactic , who will be closing fast.
Before this weekend’s important races, here are the top futures horses at WH:
Paladin 6-1
Nearly,Renegade 10-1
Boyd, Silent Tactic 12-1
Chief Wallabee 15-1
Plutarch, Further Ado 18-1
Napoleon Solo, Canaletto 22-1
Here are the odds of the other horses in this weekend’s races:
Commandment, Blackout Time 30-1
Iron Honor 40-1;
Class President still 125-1(!)
Not racing this weekend, but Reagan’s Honor is now 35-1
If they ran it tomorrow…Palidin would be 6-1…
Did you happen to see what Litmus Test odds were?
Litmus Test is 28-1
Thanks biggy. I saw Litmus break maiden at Del Mar in August. The other time I was at Del Mar I saw Vindication break his maiden.
Vindication was 1000 times the horse Litmus Test is and I was there that day at Del Mar, too when Vindication broke from the 1 hole
Yes Sovereignty, not even close. Vin was special.
Guess Robert has a close buddy in Bill Dawson – they both like to make personal attacks, rather than discuss the topic. SMH
Are you 2 okay? Alls I referenced was that I witnessed them race. I never compared both against each other. You and the other cohort sit back and nit pick like a scorned prom queen with no meaningful contributions .
Seriously? Seems you’re silent when others “nit pick”. Shocker!
Little over the top regarding I don’t make contributions. Defensive much?
Hey Robert
Your take on those two is spot on. Both are cut from the same cloth, posting snide, rude comments that are quite juvenile in content. The “Parrot”, (Mike) simply agrees or repeats what someone else has already stated, hence the name “Parrot”
His comments are seriously lacking in originality.
I’ve often wondered if he’s playing with a full deck.
I am perfectly fine, thanks for asking.
And thanks for the personal insults – it really adds to the discussion of horse racing.
I got 38-1 on him..)…
Tampa Bay Derby Field – starting to assemble:
Hulkamania – 1 race
Canaletto – 1 race
The Puma – Still a Maiden
Further Ado – Layoff since KJC
Talkin – scratching from FOY
Probably 7 horse field
Those are the possibles I mentioned. Could be good race.Gargan only entered Talkin in FOY because GP asked him to
That’s interesting. I have long suspected that trainers have entered horses as favors to make fields look better than they do when then open the gates.
Gulfstream and Santa Anita would be my top suspects on that list of favor seekers. It probably happens at other tracks too.
Do they run at Aqueduct this weekend? Did Iron Honor ship yet?
Does anybody know the plan for Boyd all I see him do is workouts is Baffert planning on running him any time soon ?
Baffert doesn’t plan. He does when he does it.
He ‘s like a box of chocolates lately.. you never know what you’re gonna get.
It shows
Lol
I see that Boyd is now listed as possible for San Felipe but then Baffert would have several runners entered ?
I liked the approach you took in this column, Steve. The shorter and more succinct list told us exactly where we are now. You also pointed out how slow so many of the preps have been run; most of the big figures have been posted by first or second out winners. I have to say I like a few of those horses more than the ones who placed in stakes but consistently post Beyers in the low 80s. I hope this weekend’s races tell us more. Fingers crossed.
I just wish some of those fast horses had a few more starts and stayed fast. Too many one hit wonders. When they beat winners then you have an idea how good they are.
At least Reagan’s Honor has three starts. Good thing he’s in Florida —After seeing how bad the storm in the northeast is, kinda worried if New York will be ready for the Gotham. Planes will be backed up for days, which isn’t good for shippers (and pretty ugly for humans, too.)
He’s not – he’s at the FG with Cherie
Good observation. . And how true… how true!!!
Steve, awesome job!
I actually really liked RH’s maiden breaker – he got a very solid 81 BSF, running just a tick or two slower than Golden Tempo in the Risen Star. That was only his 2nd start, first going 2 turns
That said, 💯💯💯 on everything else. I’m not sure what many are missing, but this was a remarkably strong race…he didn’t slow down at all
I’m guessing Cherie doesn’t go overboard with praise unnecessarily, so that’s strong words. ..as are Terry’s
There’s a chance he runs big in the BG and misses out on the Derby …given that he’s light framed, it wouldn’t be the worst thing…but I do hope he gets the chance !
I didnt say I didnt like it. I went from like to love. Big difference.
I know, I realized that after I posted it – and by then, I was too busy to amend
It was a quantum leap, absolutely
Hi Steve
First and foremost, thank you for providing continued coverage of the top contenders on this year’s Derby trail. I especially like the changes you made in the format and agree it’s easier to read. On February 17th, I posted a comment on your Week 5 Rankings, regarding Bob Baffert’s intend on running Litmus Test in the San Felipe and possibly shipping Plutarch for the Wood Memorial. My comment read as follows: “why not ship Litmus Test and enter Plutarch in the San Felipe”? Evidently, Baffert heeded my advice and will do just that. 🙂
All kidding aside, it remains to be seen if in fact, Baffert will enter Plutarch in the San Felipe. He just might wait for the San Anita Derby on April 4th.
Many thanks for all you do, it’s much appreciated.
The key words when talking about Bob’s plans Are might, could, may, and possibly. Im done trying to predict where they go.
Fair enough, Steve.
Thanks for the reply.
No works for Plutarch since the Lewis. That tells me no San Felipe, he’s not keeping him on edge, which makes sense if they are waiting for Wood or SA Derby. He has a lot of races, the basic trend is a lot of these horses are basically gearing up for one race.
Baffert nominated six to the San Felipe, but Plutarch was NOT one of them.
.missing work is why I lowered him and said door was open to run in San Felipe. But didnt realize he didnt even nominate him. I guess he was serious about the Wood. I never know what to make of what he says. He hasn’t told me one thing this year that happened. But after 30 years that’s my fault
One of the elements I admire is your integrity.
Who are the six that were nominated?
Not sure. If Baffert has revealed a pattern, it’s that he doesn’t need to work horses who he feels have a foundation. Plutarch has that foundation. He has said as much in the past about his stock.
Because his training “program” is HARD on them!
Yes, at times brutal!
Chief Wallabee – There is an allowance for three year olds going nine furlongs at GP on Sunday. They didn’t cross enter him.
Makes one wonder who is calling the shots. Owner Katherine Ball is a trainer who at one time had her own stable.
I saw that as well, Ball used to be a trainer, I think Mott may not be calling the shots in this case, too many quotes about behind behind, and wait and see.
Mott said at DRF he was going to enter him in a 7f race that was on the March 1 card with the 9f race. But the 7f race did not fill.
CW will be ready to roll.
Don’t wonder…