2026 Kentucky Derby Rankings – Week 7
So, you think this weekend’s stakes helped clear up the Derby picture, right? Definitely wrong. What we have now is a virtual eight-horse tie for the top ranking. That’s one way of saying these horses are so interchangeable, you can rank them anywhere and make a case for it. None of them stand out and all of them have given reasons why they can win the Derby. So if you feel the No. 7 ranked horse should be No. 4 or the No. 5 ranked horse should be No. 3, or the No. 8 ranked horse should be No. 6, I agree with you. No need to plead your case. You’ll just have to read the comments to get some idea what my impressions are of each horse, realizing that where they are ranked is based on where my brain waves were at the time I sent them in. Before that, they were changed several times. ~ Steve Haskin
Derby Rankings: March 2, 2026 – Week 7
By Steve Haskin
1. Paladin (Chad Brown, Gun Runner — Secret Sigh, by Tapit)
Although there were some terrific performances over the weekend, none seemed to warrant any changes at the top. He certainly isn’t what you would call a clear-cut No. 1, but having held that position since Ted Noffey’s departure, he seems fairly secure in maintaining it for now. He had his first work since the Risen Star and has continued his machine-like drills. His last four works, all at four furlongs, have been :49 3/5, :49 4/5, :49 3/5, and :49 4/5. Anyone want to bet what the time of his next work will be? Like with Brown and Coolmore’s last big Derby horse, Sierra Leone, he is taking the same route — two starts at 2 concluding with the Remsen, then the Risen Star and Blue Grass Stakes. Could Sierra Leone have used one more start to make up that nose difference? Obviously there is no way to know. What Paladin has going for him is that he has far more tactical speed than the late-running Sierra Leone and had a much harder race in the Risen Star, which no doubt helped toughen him up coming off only two starts and a 2 1/2-month layoff. It also may have given him a stronger foundation and some breathing room in his final start. So, like with Sierra Leone, we just continue to wait the seven weeks between races to see what he gets out of the Blue Grass. After next week’s races, everything will be re-evaluated.
2. Renegade (Todd Pletcher, Into Mischief — Spice is Nice, by Curlin)
If you look up the meaning of the word untraditional, it says, “Describes things, practices, or ideas that do not conform to established customs, conventions, or standard, long-held methods.” If you want to boil it down and look for a one-word definition of the word untraditional, that one word on Thesaurus.com is “Renegade.” Now, ask yourself if there is any horse owned by Mike Repole that is more aptly named. Could it be, after Uncle Mo and Forte and Fierceness, and all the forces than conspired against those horses on the first Saturday in May, the Derby gods have been waiting for a horse called Renegade to finally give Repole his trophy and his much sought after soapbox? Heck, the mare, Spice is Nice, is a pretty fitting name as well. I know this offers nothing informative, but we still have a month to wait before this colt shows up in the starting gate again, so why not look to the stars for a reason to like him. We have already gone over all his attributes. And with Paladin still No. 1, he will continue to ride on his coattails, again for the time being. He certainly has shown enough to suggest he can one day get the better of his nemesis.
3. Chief Wallabee (Bill Mott, Constitution — A la Lucie, by Medaglia d’Oro)
That traditionalist voice inside my head keeps whispering in my ear, “I wish he had one more start.” The worst part is that I had just heard it 50 minutes earlier when Iron Honor won the Gotham in his second career start. I answered back, “Look, it’s a new game played with new players and new ideas.” All I know is that this colt may have only two starts but he runs and fights like a seasoned veteran. And by racing four-wide into the first turn and on the second turn don’t be surprised to see him get a faster Thoro-Graph number than the winner. His 100 Beyer in defeat was awfully strong for such an inexperienced colt. But not a surprise considering he ran a “4” Thoro-‘Graph number in his debut and a 100 Brisnet late pace figure off a 91 middle pace figure. I wrote about him in Week 1 after his maiden win, saying, “There are brilliant and spectacular maiden winners and there are maiden winners who look and run like Derby horses, exhibiting all the traits you look for in a classic horse.” That was him then and it is him now, even in defeat. After the Fountain of Youth had sunk in it hit me where I’ve seen this horse before, It was in 2023 and his name was Mage. Both horses won their career debut at Gulfstream in January going seven furlongs and then ran promising races in defeat in the Fountain of Youth, one in 1:43 and the other in 1:43 1/5. As of now it looks like Chief Wallabee will follow Mage’s path to Kentucky with his final prep in the Florida Derby. If that doesn’t get that voice out of my head nothing will.
4. Class President (Todd Pletcher, Uncle Mo — Top Quality, by Quality Road)
So, Class President dropped back in distance into a sprint and came out of it a sharper and tougher horse who was ready to to outrun and outfight more seasoned two-turn horses. OK, I can get off the soapbox I’ve been on for years about class horses dropping back to a sprint early on the Derby trail. I’ve given all the stats and all the great champions that used to do that all the time. What Pletcher and WinStar have now is a horse who is ready for pretty much anything and is only going to keep improving. What made his sprint performance all the more important and revealing was the fact that the fast sprinter who he chased home so determinedly in the Swale came back the day before and stretched out to two turns in the Fountain of Youth Stakes and ran a game third, beaten only 2 1/4 lengths, behind two of the leading Derby hopefuls. So all the peices were in place for a big race in the Rebel. What made this race stand out was watching the late-closing Southwest winner Silent Tactic, pull away from the 3-2 favorite Litmus Test by 5 1/4 lengths and have a deep talented field strung out 40 lengths, and still unable to pass Class President the entire length of the stretch. And Class President had pressed a stiff :23 and :46 3/5 pace and had no business out-battling such a powerful and accomplished closer. But he dug in and would not let Silent Tactic get by through a swift :06 1/5 final sixteenth. And this is a horse with only two lifetime starts and never having been two turns. I was torn between No. 3 and 4, and that could be reversed with further thought.
5. Nearly (Todd Pletcher, Not This Time — Ib Prospector, by Mineshaft)
With a month to the Florida Derby there certainly is no rush with him, so there isn’t much to make of his easy :50 half-mile breeze at Palm Meadows on Friday. If you need some sense of competition attached to the work, he did go 12/100ths of a second faster than his stablemate Renegade. Don’t overthink that last sentence, as it was just a moment of jocularity to enliven the inactivity of one of the top-ranked horses. It is that inactivity that has made him out of sight, out of mind, which resulted in his slight drop in the Rankings. But we have plenty of time to re-evaluate him before the Florida Derby. There was a connection over the weekend if you want to search for something negative, and that was the poor showing of Holy Bull runner-up Bravaro in the Fountain of Youth Stakes. I wouldn’t make too much of that, as the overall form this year has been spotty in general. We will just have to wait and see how Nearly does coming off an eight-week layoff since his impressive stakes and two-turn debut in the Holy Bull. For those old timers who remember Leon Rasmussen from the Dosage Days and his own Rasmussen Factor (RF) of inbreeding to top-class mares, it is interesting to again note Nearly’s inbreediing to Secretariat’s ubiquitous daughter Weekend Surprise. And this is not just having her twice through the inbreeding of her son A.P. Indy; this is real inbreeding through A.P. Indy and his half-brother Summer Squall, both classic winners.
6. Commandment (Brad Cox, Into Mischief — Sippican Harbor, by Orb)
The main question with him was who did he beat in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes? Well, the Fountain of Youth wasn’t the greatest field, but it was a huge step up and he showed a new dimension by out-battling a top-class horse. He did get a dream ground-saving trip and gaping hole along the inside to come through, but the true test of who this colt really is came when he hooked Chief Wallabee, who despite having only one start, was by far the most talented horse he has faced and appeared to be running a winning race approaching the top of the stretch. That was until Commandment came charging through on the inside to engage him. What I loved about this colt going back to Week 1, and still love, is how he keeps getting stronger the farther he goes and how powerful his gallop-outs are. Despite being in a hot battle to the finish he threw his ears up just before the wire. And when he and Chief Walabee galloped out together he got competitive again, as he’s done in the past, and actually kicked into another gear, pinned his ears, and pulled well clear of Chief Wallabee. The last I saw was the outrider starting to go after him. What we also know from this race and his other races is that he doesn’t mind being in traffic and that always helps. He just sits tight and waits for daylight. I wasn’t sure how fast he was, but his 101 Beyer says a lot. What I do know is that he keeps improving and is all racehorse.
7. Cherokee Nation (Bob Baffert, Not This Time — Believe in Charlie, by Indian Charlie)
It has taken six races but Baffert said he finally has figured him out, tweaking his training a bit. He added that “the light went on; he’s a serious horse.” And in his one-mile maiden race on Friday he finally got a clean break after some issues coming out of the gate in his previous three starts, including getting cut off badly by Intrepido in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes and dropping back to last. This time, he broke like a rocket and was taken back to second and let stablemate Winston Ave set the pace while he was tugging at the reins wanting to go. When he finally was given his head he just took off, drawing away to a stunning 10-length victory, coming home his final two eighths in :12 1/5 and completing the mile in a swift 1:34 2/5, earning a 100 Beyer figure. When a horse can rattle off quarters in :22 3/5, :23 2/5, :23 3/5, and close in :24 2/5, there is no reason to think this is not a different horse. He is a beautiful mover and so light on his feet. As a point oif interest, Winston Ave used to be Plutarch’s workmate and twice pushed him to six-furlong works in 1:12 1/5 and 1:12 2/5. Baffert considered Cherokee Nation one of his serious Derby hopefuls back in January even though he was still a maiden. There is the question of him running his two best races with Lasix, but Baffert said going back on Lasix will make no difference. Remember, he thought so highly of him he sent him to Churchill Downs for the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Stakes off a nose defeat in a maiden race. Cherokee Nation finally is justifying that confidence, and now the sky’s the limit.
8. Silent Tactic (Mark Casse, Tacitus — Magical Sign, by Gun Runner)
Pay no attention to the fact that he was beaten a nose, As mentioned, he crushed the rest of the field, and if not for a razor-sharp Class President he might very well be sitting at the top of this, and I’m sure other, Derby Rankings lists. And let’s not forget that he was taken completely out of his comfort zone by staying closer to the pace and making a big early move between horses on the backstretch to get to within four lengths of the lead and still between horses on the far turn before easing out for his stretch run. With no one to catch but Class President, he looked like a sure winner as he pulled on even terms in the upper stretch. But no matter how deep he dug and how hard he tried he could not get past Class President, while finishing well clear of the 3-2 favorite Litmus Test. Looking at all those proven stakes horses spread out down the stretch behind him, there is no doubt he ran a winning race that he probably would have won 99 out of 100 times with that exact same scenario. He just ran into a sharper horse, and was running in his third two-turn stakes at Oaklawn this year. Yes, the Arkansas Derby is a rich race, but he has now earned the right to basically use it pretty much as a Kentucky Derby prep. If he can win it making a big late run, as he did in the Southwest, that’s fine. But he had his sharpener and his gut check and you want him to get him to peak on Derby Day.
9. Further Ado (Brad Cox, Gun Runner — Sky Dreamer, by Sky Mesa)
Now the stage gets turned over to him in Saturday’s Tampa Bay Derby to see if can upstage some of those topnotch performances we saw this past weekend. This colt wowed everyone with his sppectacular 20-length maiden romp, but he does have some things to prove at Tampa. That is because we have seen too many of last year’s top juveniles fail to duplicate their form this year. Blackout Time and Litmus Test, the 2,3 finishers of the Breeders’ Futurity, both disappointed in the Rebel Stakes; Champagne winner Napoleon Solo, Street Sense winner Incredibolt, and Remsen third-place finisher Balboa, all have disappointed as well. And then we have Universe and Soldier N Diplomat, who finished second and third, respectively, to Further Ado in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. Universe has showed nothing this year and Soldier N Diplomat was never a threat in the Rebel Stakes. So will Further Ado follow that road or follow Paladin and Renegade and move on from last year’s results and establish himself as a serious Derby contender. Remember, he still has the fastest Thoro-Graph number with that insane “negative-1” in his maiden victory. That is the horse we want to see in the Tampa Derby.
10. Reagan’s Honor (Cherie DeVaux, Honor A. P. — Rutile, by Medaglia d’Oro)
Last week we quoted co-owner Terry Finley of West Point Thoroughbreds, saying, “It’s crazy how he’s matured in the last 90 days.” Well, his Thoro-Graph numbers appear to back that comment up. After debuting with an uninspiring “18 1/4,” finishing fourth going six furlongs, he stretched out to two turns and jumped to a “10 1/2” winning wire-to-wire by 1 1/4 lengths. Then came that apparent “crazy maturing,” as he soared to a “3 1/4” in his recent 6 3/4-length romp against older horses, rattling off those previously mentioned quarters of :22 4/5, :23 1/5, :24 3/5, :and 24, and coming home his final sixteenth in :06 1/5. Not only was his final time of 1:42 flat for the 1 1/16 miles faster than the Risen Star and Mineshaft Stakes five days earlier, that “3 1/4” number was faster than the career-best numbers of the No. 1 and 2 ranked horses Paladin and Renegade. But let’s remember, there usually are always going to be questions on the Derby trail, and when he moves up to Grade 1 competition in the Blue Grass Stakes he will be racing without Lasix for the first time in his career. That could mean nothing, but still needs to be mentioned.
11. Secured Freedom (Tim Yakteen, Practical Joke — Securely, by Uncle Mo)
He worked a bullet five furlongs in :59 3/5 for Saturday’s San Felipe Stakes, fastest of 24 works at the distance. But that is not why I like this colt. Sure it was a brilliant work, but he cranks out :59 and change works like a machine. So, I’m not going to say that work will be the reason he wins the San Felipe. It sure can’t hurt, and it’s good to know he can work that fast so regularly. What I do like most is that he can press a torrid :21 1/5 and :43 2/5 pace going 6 1/2 furlongs and draw off to a 4 1/2-length victory and then stretch out to two turns in his stakes debut and take back to seventh behind a :23 2/5 and :47 3/5 pace and close fast to finish third behind a Grade 1 winner and a Grade 1-placed horse. Also, the horse who finished fifth, almost three lengths behind him, came back to win his next start by 10 lengths, earning a 100 Beyer figure. What first caught my eye was the way he drops his shoulder in the stretch and starts to extend his stride. The San Felipe should be tougher than the Robert Lewis, with Intrepido returning, Baffert sending out anywhere from two to four starters, and possibly the 1-2 finishers of the San Vicente Stakes. But there should be a ton of speed and I just want to see him come charging late again.
12. Chip Honcho (Steve Asmussen, Connect — Miss My Rose, by Magician)
He continued his lengthy string of five-furlong works with a 1:02 1/5 drill on Monday. There is no questioning this colt’s toughness, consistency, and resiliency. He has never finished off the board in his five lifetime starts and in his worst defeat he was beaten only 1 3/4 lengths after a less than ideal trip. He can press or set the pace and we saw his grit in the Risen Star when he had Paladin life and death to nail him on the wire. With five tough races under him and all those five-furlong works, he has a rock-solid foundation and should once again be tough to beat stretching out to 1 3/16 miles in the Louisiana Derby, especially with the distance-loving Curlin and Magician as his two grandsires and a strong tail-female family that traces to Affirmed and Vigors. Many questioned the strength of the early Fair Grounnds Derby preps. That all changed in the Risen Star, especially with Chip Honcho’s Thoro-Graph numbers jumping from a pair of “7 1/2s” to a “4 1/2.” Another move forward would put him in an excellent position to peak on Derby Day.
13. Iron Honor (Chad Brown, Nyquist — Orencia, by Blame)
As good and tough a horse as he obviously is, there is a reason why I can’t rank him as high as the other horse with two lifetime starts, Chief Wallabee, even though Iron Honor won the Gotham. I know racing has changed and history has changed, but until it happens I have to take into account that no horse has ever won the Kentucky Derby with three lifetime starts and only one two-turn race. I realize anything is possible now, but at this point I would look at Iron Honor as more of a Preakness-type horse from a timing standpoint. His Gotham was an excellent performance and I can see him getting even better in the Wood Memorial, but he did come home his final quarter in the Gotham in :26 2/5, and I need to see a faster closing fraction if I’m going to consider a horse with so little experience a serious Kentucky Derby horse. So for now I am going to appreciate him for what he’s done and for what he should be capable of doing and wait to see how what he does going two turns for the first time in April. He is a powerful colt who runs hard and fights, and he has plenty of stamina in his pedigree, so he does have physicality and bloodlines going for him.
14. Golden Tempo (Cherie Devaux, Curlin — Carrumba, by Bernardini)
The good news is that he turned in a sharp half-mile work in :47 4/5 on Friday and should relish the 1 3/16 miles of the Louisiana Derby with his stamina-laden pedigree top and bottom. The bad news, if it is bad news, could be from a timing and a speed rating point of view. His Thoro-Graph pattern of debuting with a “10” and then running a “7 3/4” and a “7” suggests a move forward of several points, but it would have to be a pretty substantial move to put him in range for a typical Derby-winning number. From a timing standpoint, he probably could use two more races before the Kentucky Derby in order to peak on that day, which obviously he won’t get, so one would hope to see at least a five-point jump to about a “2.” Again, we’re talking strictly speed figures and has nothing to do with his talent. We know he has the closing punch and the pedigree to make him dangerous at Churchill Downs, but his Beyer figures still haven’t been out of the 80s, and he does have to make a huge improvement there, as well as on Thoro-Graph, and only one race in which to do it. What he has going for him is that so far the speed-figure standard this year might be lower than usual. We’ll know more when this past weekend’s Thoro-Graph numbers come out.
15. Litmus Test (Bob Baffert, Nyquist — Study Hard, by Malibu Moon)
He has a number of attributes that will always make him a big money maker, but what he doesn’t have is a true identity. He doesn’t seem fast enough to be a frontrunner and I believe breaking from post 1 hurt him in the Rebel, as he seems more effective as a stalker. But he was almost forced to go to the front, with six horses across the track right alongside him. He finally was able to clear the field on the backstretch after brisk factations of :23 and :46 3/5, but soon was challenged by Class President and then Blackout Time. He held on doggedly until the three-sixteenths pole, but I don’t know if he was ready to wire this field. He does have speed, having won his career debut going five furlongs pressing fractions on :21 2/5 and :44 4/5. But that kind of speed is in the past after four straight 1 1/16-mile races. At one point Baffert was going to put him bubble wrap, then he surprisingly was entered in the Southwest Stakes and scratched, then was possible for the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, then possible for the San Felipe, but wound up in the Rebel. He’s made trips to Keeneland and Oaklawn, and since January 31 he’s had only three half-mile works. And you have to remember he has never had the same jockey two races in a row, going from Hernandez to Gaffalione to Prat to Jose Ortiz back to Hernandez and back to Prat. So he gets an incomplete on his report card and can’t be truly evaluated until he gets into some kind of groove and gives us a better idea of just who he is.
KNOCKING ON THE DOOR
Continuing on the beaten horses in the Rebel. BLACKOUT TIME was in excellent position, but just came up empty. It’s too early to dismiss him as just another failure from last year. He’s shown he has a lot of talent, so we’ll give him another chance if McPeek decides to continue on the Derby trail. He did finish fourth even though he was well beaten. SOLDIER N DIPLOMAT definitely deserves another chance after a disastrous trip in which he ducked out badly from the far outside post, was awkward being pushed to get back in the race, and was forced to go seven-wide into the turn with six horses actually inside him. He was probably eight-wide at one point on the turn and found himself alone in last as they headed down the backstretch. That basically was it for him. This is a horse who is always right on or near the pace, so his fate was sealed no matter what he did. He was able to move up along the inside, then moved out and made a brief bid, but as expected had nothing for the stretch run, finishing a well-beaten fifth. Just totally throw this one out.
Looking at the Fountain of Youth, another colt who ran big in defeat was the aformentioned SOLITUDE DUDE, who probably wants to stick to sprints and mile races, but he ran hard in the Fountain of Youth and was still running hard at the wire to be finish third, beaten only 2 1/4 lengths, while finishing 8 3/4 lengths ahead of fourth-place finisher BRAVARO, who was coming off a second-place finish to Nearly in the Holy Bull Stakes.
As for NAPOLEON SOLO, it was going to be either feast or famine with him. If he wasn’t the potential superstar we saw in the Champagne, then who exactly is he? He was either going to emerge from the Fountain of Youth as one of the Derby favorites, maybe even the favorite, or a big disappointment. He was, after all, coming off an injury and you just never know how they are going to return, especially going two turns for the first time. He was training well, so he was fit. Breaking last and then rushing up in tight quarters to third and going wide into the turn certainly didn’t help. Coming off a layoff and stretching out, that was enough to do him in right there. He did try to make a run at the leaders and moved with Solitude Dude, but Chief Wallabee ran right by him and he just backed up from there. He was narrowly beaten for fourth by Bravaro, but they both were far behind the first three. Forgetting about the Derby, I’m not going to give up on this horse until I see him break well and run the kind of race he wants to run, especially with a two-turn race under his belt.
You have to admire a horse like Gotham runner-up CROWN THE BUCKEYE, an Ohio-bred who is one tough hard-running horse with only a single blemish on his six-race record. He battled head and head every step of the way and continued to fight when challlenged by Iron Honor. He gave way grudgingly to be beaten only a length, with a gap of 6 1/2 lengths back to the third horse, the late-closing RIGHT TO PARTY, who rallied with a big run after being far back early. Making only his third career start and coming off a maiden victory, we could be hearing from this colt later on.
Changing pace, if you watched the Japanese prep races and the races from Saudi Arabia and Dubai and have come away with the impression that the Japanese do not have a 3-year-old worth getting excited about, with the possible exception of the undefeated workmanlike colt Pyromancer, hold off on that assumption until the March 28 Fukuryu Stakes at Nakayama Race Course. That is where we could see a serious Kentucky Derby horse emerge if DANON BOURBON is as spectacular as he has been in his first two starts. This powerful son of Maxfield devastated his opponents in his 10-length maiden romp and easy five-length score in a weight-for-age race, run at 1 1/8 miles and 1 3/16 miles, respectively, at Kyoto Race Course. But more importantly, it was how he did it. Whether it was winning wire-to-wire in his debut or tracking the leaders in his second start, he was on cruise control both times, and in the latter, once his jockey moved his hands on him after entering the stretch he flew by the two leaders and drew several lengths clear in a matter of a few strides. In both races he just kept extending his lead with every stride and won with his ears pricked, as his rider gave him a couple of pats on the neck crossing the finish line. What makes these races even more impressive is that he came home his final three-eighths in a sensational :36 1/5 and :36 3/5, respectively.
And before you ask who he beat, in his last race he crushed a 9-5 Gun Runner colt named American Style, who had won his only race in style going 1 1/8 miles, and the 7-2 Allen Star, who had won his only race going nine furlongs by eight lengths. Danon Bourbon left them in the proverbial dust with one big burst of speed. He reminds me a good deal of Maxfield, who also was a grand-looking horse, and if you want to know how brilliant a pedigree Danon Bourbon has, consider that if you took a poll to name the three most brilliant horses of the modern era, a great many people would say Dr. Fager, Secretariat, and Seattle Slew. Well, Danon Bourbon has Dr. Fager in his pedigree five times, Secretariat four times, and Seattle Slew twice. And just for good measure, if you want to switch sexes, he also has Reviewer, the sire of Ruffian, arguably the most brilliant filly of all time.
Adam Corndorf, owner and general manager of Blue Heaven Farm in Versailles, Kentucky, who bred, raised, and sold the colt, called him “a big strapping powerful dude with an easy-going personality who never had a bad day.” Judging from his first two starts, he still hasn’t had a bad day.
Now there is a bit of a question, even if he wins the Fukuryu Stakes. All three of his races will have come on a right-handed track, so he will be running left-handed for the first time in the Derby, and we won’t know how he’ll handle that and his lead changes. You can be sure he will get plenty of schooling at home and at Churchill Downs, but let’s not get too far ahead ourselves. He still has to earn those 40 win points and have the most total points in the four-race Japanese Road to the Derby series to earn an automatic berth in the Derby field, as others with points already can overtake him with a placing even if he wins. But I just wanted to make everyone aware of this colt. He might have been the horse to beat in the UAE Derby the same day and on a left-handed track, but this is the schedule they chose.
While we’re on the subject of the Japanese, let’s look at how the Japanese Road to the Derby is shaping up. As we noted, even if Danon Bourbon wins, it is possible the 40 points won’t be enough if the Hyacinth winner LUCKY KID finishes second or third. With 30 points already, a second would give the colt 50 total points and a third would give him 42 points. As a Godolphin homebred, will he take on Danon Bourbon or head for the UAE Derby? Another colt, the undefeated PYROMANCER, earned 20 points for winning the Zen Nippon Nisai Yushun, but he had been targeting the UAE Derby, so we have to wait to see if they change course.
An interesting horse is SATONO VOYAGE, who was not among the early Derby nominations even though he won the first leg of the series, the Cattleya Stakes, back in November, earning 10 points. He then went for the Saudi Derby, where he finished a solid third, picking up nine Derby points on its own and not part of the Japanese Series. He actually looked like a winner in the stretch and his jockey seemed to be riding him with extreme confidence. By the time he asked him, the American horse Obliteration, who he appeared to have put away, came back and beat him for second, as Al Haram rallied late to beat both of them. We have no idea if Satono Voyage is even considering the Kentucky Derby route, as he would have to be a late nominee. Another colt who was not an early nominee is DON ERECTUS, but he has accumulated 20 points with second-place finishes in the Cattleya and Hyacinth Stakes, so a second-place finish to Danon Bourbon in the Fukuryu Stakes would tie him with 40 points and it would go to lifetime earnings. But he has been extremely inconsistent, throwing in clunkers every other race. The last horse to mention, who is Derby nominated, is ITTERASSHAI, who has nine points and would need a win in the Fukuryu .
With Santa Anita entries due to be drawn shortly after this is being written, it looks as if BRANT and POTENTE will be Bob Baffert’s representatives in the San Felipe Stakes. It seems like we’ve been waiting for ages for Brant to return following some setbacks after his third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He was supposed to be headed to the Rebel Stakes, but Baffert felt he wasn’t ready. After working five furlongs in :59 4/5 he obviously is finally ready to hit the Derby trail. Potente, like others we have mentioned, has had only one career start, but Baffert has always been high on him, and his :47 2/5 work convinced him he was ready for his stakes and two-turn debut. One horse to watch is the impressive San Vicente Stakes winner SO HAPPY, especially after what we saw this past weekend from Class President and Solitude Dude coming off the seven-furlong Swale. This is a dangerous speed horse, who showed off some of that speed working a half in :46 4/5. His trainer Mark Glatt said he has never been a flashy work horse and in fact was a bit lazy in his works. But he noted this latest work was “dynamite,” as he was just cruising. As for stretching out to two turns, Glatt said he has given him every indication in his sprints that he can handle it.
Looking at the Tampa Bay Derby, Further Ado should get tested by yet another brilliant career-debut maiden winner in CANALETTO, a Chad Brown-trained son of Into Mischief who romped by eight lengths in a sharp 1:36 1/5 for the mile. But for whatever it’s worth, it should be pointed out that the runner-up in that race, Lost Money, was ambitiously placed in the Fountain of Youth Stakes and was beaten 25 lengths. Another interesting horse to watch is THE PUMA, who despite getting left at the gate in his career debut and making a premature move to get the lead, still finished a strong second to Chief Wallabee. He then came back in the Sam F. Davis Stakes as a maiden and overcame traffic to finish a respectable third to Renegade, So he has already held his own against two highly ranked Derby horses, and his trainer Gustavo Delgado has a Kentucky Derby victory with Mage. One horse we have written about extensively as an under-the-radar horse to watch is the Champagne runner-up TALKIN, who is looking to rebound from a disappointing effort in the Remsen Stakes. Another one-race wonder is HULKAMANIA, who won his career debut by four lengths going seven furlongs at Tampa. The cagey Patrick Biancone may try to pull a fast one by running REDLAND REBELS, who is coming off two big races on grass, a dominating 6 3/4-length maiden win and a neck defeat in the Kitten’s Joy Stakes.
Let’s catch up a little on the much talked about EMERGING MARKET, who staged that sensational stretch battle with the highly touted POWERSHIFT, as the pair of first-time starters finished 13 1/2 lengths ahead of the third horse, with both horses getting lively Beyer figures of 96 and 95, respectively. Emerging Market kept the spotlight on him by working a half in a bullet :48 3/5 at Payson Park Friday, fastest of 70 works at the distance. He is scheduled to make a big jump up in class and distance in the 1 3/16-mile Louisiana Derby. Interestingly, Powershift was given a slightly faster Thoro-Graph number, “5 1/4,” with Emerging Market getting a “5 1/2,” and he may also show up in Saturday’s Tampa Bay Derby, which would make that race even more intriguing.
Talk about naming horses after yourself in sort of a frolicsome way, how about Mike Repole’s best 3-year-old filly ZANY, a name he admits reflects her owner. Originally, Repole said the undefeated and untested filly, who ran a bit zany winning the Suncoast Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs on February 6, was possibly heading to either the Ashland Stakes as her prep for the Kentucky Oaks or the Wood Memorial as her prep for the Kentucky Derby. In the end it was decided to take the conservative route and point her to the Ashland.
If you were a big fan of INCREDIBOLT, as I was, and you are willing to forgive his inexplicable 25-length drubbing in the Holy Bull Stakes as just a very bad day, he still has a chance for some redemption when he would take on what promises to be a less competitive field in the March 14 Virginia Derby at Colonial Downs. Since the Holy Bull he has worked half-miles in :48 4/5 then :48 3/5 and most recently :48 2/5. You have to look for some progression wherever you can find it. The down part, timing-wise, is the Holy Bull was a non-race and the Virginia Derby would be his only real race unless he comes back in three weeks or tries for the Lexington Stakes on April 11. It is also possible a good race in the Virginia Derby would help propel him to the Preakness.
Concluding with Baffert, he is in the unusual situation of having a decent 3-year-old grass horse on his hands in GREENWICH VILLAGE, winner of the 6 1/2-furlong Baffle Stakes and one-mile Pasadena Stakes, both in photos. Because the son of Quality Road was beaten 15 lengths on the dirt in the San Vicente Stakes, Baffert is looking at the Jeff Ruby Steaks on Turfway Park’s synthetic surface for his next start.
Racing historian, author, and award-winning retired journalist for the Daily Racing Form and The Blood-Horse, Steve Haskin was inducted into the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame’s Media Roll of Honor in 2016. Known for his racing knowledge and insightful prose, he has been an exclusive contributor to Secretariat.com since 2020.
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The Virginia Derby field next Saturday:
1-Buetane Prat/Baffert 5/2
2-Grittiness Maragh/Pletcher 12-1
3-Epic Desire Russell/Pletcher 15-1
4-Work Sanchez/O’Neill 20-1
5-High Camp Velazquez/Walden 9/2
6-Lockstocknpharoah Morales/Drury Jr. 5-1
7-Incredibolt Torres/Riley Mott 10-1
8-Confessional Ortiz Jr./Cox 4-1
9-Ocelli Ramos/Beckman 15-1
10-Clocker Special Torres/Brisset 8-1
The only Derby prep next week is a one-turn nine furlong race offering 50 points to the winner. You may remember American Promise romp last year in track record time (1:46.41).
The only horses in the field even mentioned in the rankings are Incredibolt (3rd the first two weeks), Buetane, and Grittiness (in the KotD segment).
Buetane with his natural speed starting from the rail in a speed favoring track is the 5-to-2 morning line favorite.
Incredibolt is looking to rebound after finishing last in the Holy Bull as the third betting choice. He seems to be training very well at Palm Meadows after that blunder.
Surprised to see High Camp at 9/2 and Lockstocknpharoah at 5/1 whilst Incredibolt was rated at 10-1…
Anyway, the Virginia Derby might not be that relevant to Derby glory but seems to be a good betting race regardless.
Currently, my top twelve prospects on the Derby trail, (listed in preferential order), are as follows:
1) Renegade
2) Potente
3) Nearly
4) Commandment
5) Paladin
6) Silent Tactic
7) Further Ado
8) Chief Wallabee
9) Chip Honcho
10) Golden Tempo
11) So Happy
12) The Puma
Crude Velocity had been entered as the ml favorite, in January ..was scratched and debuted yesterday—-broke last, moved into contention then was steadied…and mowed down a good horse, 1:15 1/5–$23 payout…..Bob has some late bloomers,, if I had that colt I would be getting Derby Fever, BUT—Id wait! The eastern horses look strong, this year, and it’s late….but Crude Velocity looked good…
Happy International women’s day to all women and especially to the distinguished ladies participating in this forum as commenters and readers.
Before Potente….no horse had won the San Felipe, in their 2nd start …
Beyer’s for top 3 finishers in TB Derby:
95
93
93
DRF lowered the Beyer today for the Tampa Bay Derby. It is now 89, down from the initial 95.
“The Chief”, Commandment, and Paladin still stand tall for me. Not necessarily in that order. But maybe.
Not feeling it with any horse like I did last year with Sovereignty.
BTW, Junior Alvarado and Bill Mott still seem to have their mojo working. A very professional pairing.
Tommy, I agree with that assessment. The horses in the Tampa Bay Derby seemed very evenly matched, and they finished like that. Potente’s win in only his second start told a lot about the horses behind him. I’m starting to wonder if ANY of them will be ready by the first Saturday in May.
I can’t use any of the Tampa Bay Derby horses in the Kentucky Derby. I’m taking a strong stand against Further Ado. He was right there with The Puma and Canaletto which is probably a bad sign for all of them.
Canaletto was wide all the way and in the middle of that 3-horse finish. I still think that Canaletto will be the best of those three, but not in the Kentucky Derby. Maybe a Preakness type horse if he wants to go that far.
BTW, what will the distance of the Preakness be at Laurel? We’ll see.
Not too impressed with the San Felipe either. Potente getting to a horse that seemed to be waiting for him.
The Virginia Derby next Saturday before getting back to the real Derby Trail the following Saturday with the Louisiana Derby.
Another round of Derby futures next weekend. This one will include some Oaks wagering.
In the interest of good taste, I won’t comment on the Big Cap.
Tommy, I don’t subscribe to theory “one strike and you’re out”. The Cox horse did enough yesterday to move forward.
I think so, too. I was disappointed because I thought Further Ado could blow away those horses and he didn’t. But he hadn’t run in three months, he may have needed the race, he certainly didn’t disgrace himself, and he might improve off his effort. I’ll be happy to give him more chances.
He ran below expectations, however as you stated hadn’t ran in awhile.
I am not a bettor. I did pick the 1-2 finishers correctly in the TB Derby after watching the horses pre race. After studying the race all week I didnt have a feel on who would win till I saw the horses pre races. Many times I dont make a pick.
Nice win by Potente at 8 to 1 in the San Felipe Stakes clocking a respectable 1:42.92. The way he did it suggest the 1 1/4 would not be that difficult for him.
J.J. Hernandez tracked a hot pace and closed strongly to put a neck ahead of the 67- to-1 longshot Calumet’s Robusta with Emisael Jaramillo who brought off a fine ride. Into Mischief gets first with his son Potente and second with maternal grandson Robusta. Robusta should be now considered to the Santa Anita Derby after this heartbreaking defeat.
So Happy ran very well after a slow start and attending a demanding pace. Interesting to see where the son of Runhappy goes next. I would still go to the Santa Anita Derby pending what Mike Smith has to say about his gallant run today.
Hi Nelson
On March 5th, I posted a comment to you stating the following, “Potente could wind up being the best 3yr. old colt in the Baffert barn. Originally, I wasn’t going to bet the race, but I couldn’t resist those 8-1 odds. I placed a $30.00 win wager on him, which got me pretty much even for the day. In the Tampa Bay Derby, I wheeled Further Ado and Canaletto on top, in several superfecta wagers. The Puma knocked me out of my supers.
At last count, there were three legitimate Into Mischief prospects on the Derby trail, now there are four (Commandment, Renegade, Canaletto and Potente).
Bill, so glad you cashed on Potente. Congratulations!
Thanks, Ms Blacktype.
In one of my previous posts, I mentioned the Baffert was going with his go to rider, aboard Potente, which was telling, IMO.
Yes Bill … I remember your prognostication. Now Into Mischief got nice representation in the West as well. BTW Renegade’s credentials improved after The Puma’s excellent win today.
I believe Chad Brown will reserve Canaletto for the Preakness now… we’ll see.
Thanks for the reply, Nelson
Yes indeed, a very impressive win by The Puma. He wasn’t on my radar.
It will be interesting where Chad Brown will point Canaletto for his next start.
Well, you certainly got lucky there when his nose bobbed just in front of the 60-1 longshot. Congrats on the win!
No offence, but if that is the best 3 yr old colt in Baffert’s barn, I don’t see another Derby win in his future this year.
I thought Mike Smith gave So Happy the kind of ride that would cost him… see my previous post. He’s not not the brightest bulb in the house.
Thanks for the comedy!
Potente really came with a strong rally—he galloped out way in front—Robusta was always wide, he ran quite well, but Potente in his two turn debut acquitted himself well, 1:42 4/5, waited….and came and got the money….
The gallop out caught my attention too. I didn’t see that he cost $2.4 till after I looked up his pedigree after winning. Maybe you saw this also, Crude Velocity for Baffert in the 6th had a most eventful trip. Broke slow, rushed up, got caught inside where you’d think most would cave in but came running again and galloped out by a pole after the finish. He obviously got a late start but appears to be another one to follow from that powerful barn.
I had win money on Civil Liberty, thought I was home free but Crude Velocity got me…Bob at 10-1, and later with 8-1, on Potente it’s not often you get two nice payouts, on Bob’s three year olds….
“That powerful barn”, Robert? Several.
Another KDFW All Others Horse punches his ticket to the KY Derby from KDFW2 and KDFW3, Potente. Potente and The Puma are in the Derby and this enhances my Paladin and Class President KDFW horses in that All Others EX bet.
Leaving aside whether The Puma should have been a dq, i believe Canaletto is the best horse coming out of the TB Derby. He was incredibly wide into the first turn and throughout, then The Puma pushed him all over the track. And Canaletto kept running in the gallop out. I don’t think early bets are generally good value, but this one could be.
Javier Castellano gave The Puma a Hall of Fame ride against two future Hall of Fame jockeys.
Irad Ortiz Jr. and Flavien Prat were all in on Further Ado and Canaletto coming to finish line; but Castellano was very confident bidding his time at the back and running widest of all in both turns. I have never seen Castellano smiling that much after winning a race…
The Puma is the best son of champion Essential Quality’s first crop so far, and I am glad he is in the capable hands of Gustavo Delgado.
Let’s see how Brant and So Happy run in the San Felipe in 30 minutes from now.
Was watching Racing Dudes this morning and some guy on the show was really touting The Puma and said he along with Chief Wallabee were his Derby horses
Nelson, hope you’re having luck today. Cashed on The Puma.
Hi Mike… Congrats on your win.
I hit the trifecta but had I played a super I would have cashed way better payout as I had Redland Rebels for the minors…!
It is always good idea to go for Supers as any longshot sneaking into it would trigger nice returns.
Glad you hit tri. $1400 win for me.
Mike, you’re a plunger. Congratulations!
Thanks Ms. Blacktype.
Impressive win by The Puma in the TB Derby. He’s an All Others horse From KDFW2 and KDFW3 which benefits my 2 KDFW horses, Paladin and Class President. I boxed those 2 with All Others from both pools. Paladin worked 49.6 for 4F at Payson today in preparation for the Bluegrass. Class President is possible for the Bluegrass and would tangle with Paladin and Reagan’s Honor if he shows up there.
How impressive could The Puma’s win be when there were 3 horses on the money?
No offense. Your Future Wager on Paladin still looks good though.
Hard not to root for So Happy today….
Absolutely Matthew, if SH wins today it’ll be a tear jerker moment for sure!
Agreed!
Matthew, he’s my choice to win.
The Puma takes this. Training like a dynamo!
Easy $ lol
Big cap day 1972 was anyone else there ? It was a huge crowd and Santa Anita had a huge drawing I think for $5,000 for each horse in race you had to be on track and you picked a horse in the race they listed 10 people for each horse each of the lucky people got to stand in winners circle area to watch the thrilling 1972 big cap which Triple Bend won and Cougar was a fast closing second to the roar of what was a giant giant crowd I will cherish the Big Cap memories forever
I’m really looking forward to seeing Further Ado perform as a three-year-old. I think he has the potential to be at or near the top of the heap. When I start my list of possible Derby horses each year, I don’t begin with a number and fill in the blanks–I start with a blank slate and gradually put names on it. For most of last year my list had two names–Ted Noffey and Further Ado. After the Remsen I added all three of the top finishers and since then I’ve added several names, most notably Commandment. But Further Ado remains in a place of honor, and I’m anxious to see if he really is as good as I believe he can be.
It’s interesting to note that Irad rides three of the horses who are highest on my list, and of course, he’ll have to pick one. Maybe the next few weeks will sort things out, but I would hate to have to choose between Commandment, Further Ado, and Renegade. There’s a lot of ability there.
An interesting backstory on Canaletto (entered in the Tampa Bay Derby).
Giovannie Antonio Canal was an Italian painter (1697-1768) from the Republic of Venice, and the son of Bernardo Canal, also a painter. Giovannie was known as Canaletto, (“little Canal”). I suspect that one or more of the owners of Canaletto, admire the paintings of Giovannie and named Canaletto in his honor. I would not be surprised if one of his paintings is displayed in the home of one of his owners.
From my perspective, Canaletto is the only horse in the Tampa Bay Derby field that has a chance to upset Further Ado.
Edit; Just to be clear, the comment posted above, is pure speculation on my part. I have no way of knowing how or why the ownership group came up with the name Canaletto.
Hi Bill,
The Coolmore team have long named their horses after inspiring artists, world leaders, scientists, composers, etc. In general, I find European owners are more likely to name a horse after someone renowned. I greatly appreciate that and have looked up on Wikepedia the biographies behind horses’ names. I was a big fan of both Galileo and Mendelssohn.
greg (Fan of Damascus)
Hi greg in Winnipeg
Thanks for the reply, and input on Coolmore. This leads me to believe that Canaletto was indeed, named after Giovannie Antonio Canal (“little Canal”).
He displayed a valiant effort in the Tampa Bay Derby but came up a little short behind The Puma and Further Ado. Needless to say, we haven’t heard the last of Canaletto.
You CANNOT tell me Strategic Risk,who dispatched that horse by tacitus in their first hookup like he was nothing…isn’t injured or some other issue….clearly, some malady is happening. WTAF …why didn’t Casse keep him at Florida route? ….to getting in derby
You mean Silent Tactic, don’t you? Names are important” they show respect.
Do you remember Long Range Toddy?
Sov,doubtful.
Reagan’s Honor and Golden Tempo looked good working together – 100.40 for 5F
With the expected scratch of Westwood, the Santa Anita Handicap will be down to just five horses.
The 1978 Big Cap was one of the most exciting days of racing that I have ever experienced. Santa Anita was packed. My buddy and I were standing in the aisle on the 2nd floor just above Clockers Corner to see Vigors run down Mr. Redoy, who looked long gone when they ran by us. I didn’t even have the winner that day. I was on Crystal Water who had won the race the year before. Still, it was really fun. Racing at it’s best.
Holy Cow! That was 48 years ago.
Big Cap day was always a great day.
It would be great if it was brought back to it’s previous position in the Sport.
Huge vigors fan too. The white tornado !! Amazing memory thank u just rewatched on YouTube
I was there also
One of the biggest roars I’ve ever heard st SA when Vigors started to unwind his kick. It was a great day.
As expected, Brant opened as the morning line favorite, at even money, in the San Felipe Stakes. The 2nd favorite, So Happy is listed at 2-1, followed by Potente at 9/2.
A race not worth betting, IMO, but certainly a race to watch.
I’m hoping So Happy blows the field away, and moves on the Santa Anita Derby.
Bill,
I have to agree with you that the San Felipe is better to watch then bet. Too much uncertainty for me. By that on the horses running style.s Will both of Baffert’s horses go for the lead ? If only one which one? Steve said that So Happy latest works suggest to him he may go for the lead but you and I know he seems to do his best running from off the pace. His work to me are also great works for a closer. I prefer he be held back at the beginning of the race and come with a rush in the end. There does seem to be some early pace in the race from Flashy Fritz and Robusta and either one of the Bafferts. Hopefully Smith’s hand will not be forced by a horse loose on the frontend. Yep a lot of uncertainty too much for me to risk a bet. I like So Happy for this race though.
Thanks for the reply, Downthestretch.
I believe that “Money Mike” will rate So Happy off the pace, just as he did in his previous two races, and push the button coming out of the far turn. As I mentioned in a previous comment, Potente, by Into Mischief, is the colt that I fear the most. More so than Brant. Baffert went with his go to rider, Juan Hernandez aboard Potente, which is telling, IMO.
Back in October, a 2yr colt by the name of Stradale (by Yaupon, out of a Stormy Atlantic mare) looked very impressive in his maiden win, over the Churchill track, go 6 furlongs, in 1:10.22, drawing off by 5 1/2 lengths. In his next start, he finished 3rd behind the highly regarded Boyd, in the Ed Brown Stakes. Today, he looked very impressive in winning an AOC race, at Oaklawn Park, going 6 furlongs in 1:09.94, drawing off by 3 1/2 lengths. He probably will not have an impact on this year’s Derby trail, but certainly worth watch moving forward.
I was so impressed with Stradale’s maiden win, I placed a $40.00 win wager on him at 145-1, in Pool 1. That wager looks to be a toss, along with my Futures bets on Plutarch.
I’ve got a few other irons in the fire, so I remain hopeful that I still might cash in the KD.
I keyed Further Ado, at 13-1 on top of Commandment, at 69-1, in Pool 2.
In Pool 3, I boxed FA, at 26-1, with Nearly at 20-1 and Renegade at 37-1.
In addition, I boxed Commandment, at 23-1, with Brant at 23-1, Iron Honor at 60-1 and Renegade at 37-1.
In Pool 4, I keyed Paladin at 9-1, with ALL in a $2.00 exacta wager. Best case scenario, Paladin wins the Derby and Class President finishes 2nd, at 75-1. That combination would pay $1,775.00.
In addition, I placed $20.00 wagers on So Happy, at 53-1, Chip Honcho, at 65-1 and Intrepido, at 82-1.
As I mentioned, I still have a few irons in the fire.
I always liked Obliteration more than Stradale among the sprinters Asmussen had starting at Saratoga.
The son of Violence is pointed to the Pat Day Mile after an outstanding performance in the Saudi Derby.
Good luck with your irons … including Iron Honor in the futures.
Thanks, Nelson
A very clever response to the Iron Honor connection.
As I mentioned in an earlier comment, I believe this year’s Derby winner will emerge from one of the final 9-furlong Derby prep races. Either the Florida Derby, Santa Anita Derby, Arkansas Derby, Blue Grass or the Louisiana Derby at 1 3/16 miles. I do not believe the winner of the Wood Memorial will have an impact on the outcome of the KD. As it stands now, my top prospect on the Derby trail is Renegade, who’s probably headed to the Arkansas Derby. Not to put you on the spot, but would you care to reveal your top prospect (as it stands now)?
Thanks, Nelson.
Edit: Nelson, I neglected to mention that I boxed Renegade at 37-1 with Brand at 23-1, So Happy at 32-1, Further Ado at 26-1 and Commandment at 23-1, in a $2.00 exacta wager. Best case scenario, So Happy wins the Derby and Renegade comes in 2nd. The exacta would pay $4,458.00. Another lucrative payout would be Renegade finishing 1st and Brant finishing 2nd.
That exacta payout would be $4,308.00. Fingers crossed.
I posted my top five prospects in a response to Dewey at 5:54 pm below.
But I can iterate:
Paladin
Chief Wallabee
Commandment
Silent Tactic
Canaletto
I also mentioned the possible pacesetters for the Derby as their number and quality would be key for the stalkers and closers…
I apologize for missing your earlier comment.
I can’t argue with any of your top five.
Good luck, Nelson
No need to apologize. No one can go through all the comments all the time.
Bill,
I would not dismiss just yet on the winner of the Wood Memorial. There have 11 winners of the Wood who have gone on to win the KD but only 2 from the Louisiana Derby. Pletcher ,Baffert and Cox may have to divert one of there runners to the Wood. Stay tune….
DTS
Pegasus won the 2000 Wood Memorial and went on to win the Derby. That was 25 years ago. Since then, for whatever reason, the various Wood Memorial winners have failed to show up in the KD winner’s circle.
I suspect that trend will continue this year. That’s just my opinion, DTS.
Good luck if you bet this year’s Wood Memorial winner in the KD.
I made my very first futures wager in 2024. I liked Mystic Dan due to him looking so good winning in the mud and ripping through the rail in that race in Feb I believe. I followed him until pool 6 and noticed he had closing fractions under 13 seconds twice. I believe he was the only derby horse to do it that year. I ended up putting $150 on him to win and got 35-1 odds. What a thrill watching that race. This year I bet ten $6 exactas in the 3rd pool with Paladin first or second. Hopefully I’ll get lucky again
I did change my mind.
After watching some replays, I want some of Canaletto moving forward. Only one race, but it was a humdinger. Forget the other horses. Just watch Canaletto.
Canaletto will meet some toughies on Saturday. But I don’t want to bet against the $1million Chad Brown trainee.
Whatever, I want to see how he develops.
I just rewatched it too. Wow, that was pretty. Easy trip though. That said, I can see why he is Collmus Derby pick.
p.s. Burnham Square says hello. Burnham did have a tough trip in the Derby though.
Right now I will stick with Further Ado to win the Tampa Bay Derby.
Not sure why Canaletto is ranked 11 on DRF’s Derby top 20 and Emerging Market is not in the top 20.
I guess it may be because even if he wins the 1 3/16 LA Derby he may still skip the Ky Derby with only 2 starts under his belt?
Time will tell.
In 2014 Santa Anita went back to dirt racing, and on opening day they had the track surface TOO FAST—The Factor went 1:06 4/5 breaking his maiden, then Twirling Candy beat Smiling Tiger by a nose, breaking Spectacular Bid’s 34 year old track record, which was a shame …a medium sized chestnut…very good looking—won the Cal Cup Derby by 9 lengths, his name was California Chrome….Steve wrote about him, he said he looked better than any other three year old, at that time…..he had run MANY races by that time, Steve saw what he saw, and he was correct, about what he saw—that said….Chrome won the Cal Cup Derby, I was there at the finish line…he looked great—but on that day, Chrome was not favored, there was a gr1 winner, who won his gr1 on the Del Mar synthetic surface (literally made of rubber bands stuck together, it fluctuated from tight in the mornings to loose in the afternoons). Trivia question is: WHO was that horse who was favored, over Chrome, the 2014 Horse of the Year?…
Thats a great trivia to jog the memory bank. My 1st guess was Shared Belief but he’s not a Cal Bred.
I’ll go ahead and say it was Tamarando, the gr1 Del Mar Futurity winner (synthetic)….a homebred who stands in Cali…not a bad horse, he was no Chrome…
Yes Mathew… Tamarando was favorite in the Cal Cup Derby on the merits of his Grade 1 victory (Del Mar Futurity) as you said; California Chrome had finished 6th in that Del Mar Futurity. Chrome was 6th again in the Golden State Juvenile Stakes for California breds before his breakthrough performances in the King Gloriuous and Cal Cup Derby…
Before winning the San Felipe easily, California Chrome was perceived as less dominant against open company.
I was at Golden Gate when Tamarando won the El Camino Real Derby. My friend had asked me to bet $5 on him to win for her because Russell Baze was riding him, and she was thrilled when he won. Nice horse, but as you say, not in Chrome’s league.
Tamarando was sired by one of my all-time favorites, Bertrando. Back to ‘Chrome, he won the final Stakes race run at Hollywood Park. To think that place is a Football venue, among other things, boggles my mind.
Yes, Bertrando did his daddy Skywalker proud! It is indeed depressing what became of Hollywood Park. Later, the Chicago Bears bought Arlington, which was torn down only to have the Bears now thinking of moving to Indiana. Arrggh!
There’s a common denominator there with what you mention….Churchill Downs. They sold off both properties.
A certain west coast trainer and his clients preferred a fast dirt track over the closer friendly synthetic
Trainer is pretty much one dimensional.
That track stank to high heaven, too!
If the $1million Canaletto were to make it to the Derby, he would be making only his 4th start on the first Saturday in May. Larry Colmus has been outspoken that Canaletto is his Derby horse. I haven’t watched a replay of his race yet.
On first look, I’m leaning towards another one-race wonder, the Maiden Powershift.
Irad Ortiz jumps ship to stay on Further Ado. But Johnny V should be just fine on Powershift.
Powershift has a recency advantage over a couple of the contenders in the race. I hope that Powershift doesn’t “bounce” off that big number in his first race.
I could change my mind by Saturday.
Aragona picked Brant 4th Saturday and Beer picked him 3rd in the DRF video preview of the race.
An opinion only, however,not expecting either to win.
In the San Felipe…. there’s a 12-1 Cal bred named Start the Ride—-had a troubled debut, then won the Cal Cup Derby impressively…homebred Harris Farms, Upstart/Tiznow, not a typical Cal bred…. did look good beating state bred winners, going two turns….
RE: G3, Tampa Bay Derby
1) Redland Rebels
2) Talkin
3) Roger That Dana
4) Hulkamania
5) Powershift
6) Further Ado
7) Thunder Buck
8) The Puma
9) Canaletto
Obviously, Further Ado is the class of the field and the one to beat. However, the colt that intrigues me the most is Canaletto, by Into Mischief out of a Distorted humor mare. His tail-female side reflects a considerable amount of class and stamina, IMO.
Canaletto could develop into a very special colt moving forward. Does he have what it takes to beat the highly regarded Further Ado? Probably not. But you never know for sure until the race is over.
Safe trips to all.
Thanks for the information Bill.
I like Canaletto with Flavien Pratt to win the Tampa Bay Derby.
The more I watch Canaletto’s debut the more convinced I am he will win this Saturday. He won with only two taps in the shoulder entering the homestretch and hand-riden to the wire. Had Prat used the crop just once his time would have likely matched Knigthsbridge’s spectacular 1:35 and change.
The 3-month layoff of Further Ado will play in favor of Canaletto’s chances. In this case of proven class vs. raw potential I will go with the latter.
You’re welcome, Nelson
Yeah, just to be safe, I’ll box those two in a big exacta wager.
BTW, who do you like in the San Felipe? I’m a big fan of Into Mischief colts on this year’s Derby trail, Potente is just another one to add to the list, (Renegade, Commandment and Canaletto. Unfortunately, Ted Noffey and Plutarch dropped off the Derby trail for various reasons. Potente could wind up being the best 3yr. old colt in the Baffert barn. We’ll see.
Good luck, Nelson.
In the San Felipe my brain says Brant but my heart is with So Happy. I would love to see Mark Glatt and Mike Smith in the Derby.
Good luck to you as well Bill.
Hi Nelson
That’s exactly the way I feel about the race. In the FOY, I went with my heart pick, (Solitude Dude) over my brain pick, (Commandment) and paid the price. It’s one of situations that comes under the heading of “damned if you do, or damned if you don’t”.
I’ve been aboard the So Happy bandwagon for several weeks, and don’t intend to jump off now. I’ll go with my heart again and use So Happy as my top pick in the San Felipe. With respect to the Baffert colts, Potente scares me more so than Brant. Gotta love these Into Mischief colts on this year’s trail.
My brain says that Brant is the horse to beat. More than likely the winner of the San Felipe will head into the Santa Anita Derby as the heavy favorite.
Safe trips to all.
Nine horses for the Tampa Bay Derby led by Canaletto, Further Ado, The Puma, and Talkin who scratched out of the Fountain of Youth.
The Puma sounds fast.
Information out of Tampa Bay comes slowly. Very slowly.
I don’t know what happened to my comment, Steve, but I will risk repeating that I think Silent Tactic has accomplished a lot more than Cherokee Nation, and should be ranked above that horse. Hope that isn’t viewed as some kind of incendiary statement because it is backed with simply the facts.
Thank you – no disrespect intended.
You should have said that the first time instead of getting personal and nasty. Disagreement is fine but I strongly suggest you keep it civil in the future.
I always strive for civility.
Again, no disrespect was intended at any time.
I am wonder ing if some outside influence caused your to consider my comment a personal attack? It certainly was not meant to be phrased with any venom. I have been told that someone responded to it stringently. Again,. I meant only to voice my opinion about the on-track results from Silent Tactic’s efforts in the prep races..
I find it interesting and possible telling, that Baffert will use his go to rider, Juan Hernandez aboard Potente, in the San Felipe. Does Baffert believe Potente is a better prospect on the Derby trail vs his other colt, Brant? Stay tuned.
Tuned in I was. Astute observation Mr Dawson. As a relative newcomer when was the last time Bob Baffert had an off the pace sort preparing for The First Saturday of May?
INTREPIDO !!!!!
Another reason to support So Happy in the San Felipe, if you like him: Mark Glatt’s wife, Dena, died three weeks ago after a short illness. There’s a story on the drf that will break your heart. Wishing him and his family all the best.
Thanks Ms Blacktype I saw that and was just about to post about it but you beat me to it. Yes,, I will be rooting for him either harder. He does have the ability to win this race.
should have been “even harder”
Hi Ms Blacktype
Thank you for bringing that article to our attention. After reading the article, I was deeply touched by the loyalty and closeness that Mark and Dena shared in their relationship. As a waitress early on, Dena stated to Mark, “my objective every day is to come here and make you smile”. I got a kick out of that. I would like to express my deepest condolences to Mark and his three children on Dena’s passing.
If So Happy should win the San Felipe Stakes, and I think he will, I suspect Mark will dedicate the win to Dena.
RIP, Dena Glatt.
So Happy should win, I think.
Training well. Good chance to win.
I’ll have to agree with Steve that we are witnessing a very balanced field of contenders for this year’s Derby. We could make a case (which Steve has done another fine job of) for at least 12 – 15 horses who belong in the mix. My biweekly updated Derby Dozen follows……
DERBY DEW’S DERBY DOZEN
– a/o 03/04/26 –
Paladin
Nearly
Class President
Commandment
Renegade
Silent Tactic
Chief Wallabee
Iron Honor
Further Ado
So Happy
Canaletto
Cherokee Nation
Hope they all stay healthy!
Good dozen Dewey.
At this stage my top five are:
Paladin
Chief Wallabee
Commandment
Silent Tactic
Canaletto
So far I cannot seem to picture the possible pace setters in the Derby. Perhaps proven frontrunners Brant, Talk to Me Jimmy, Reagan’s Honor, Buetane, Express Kid or Chip Honcho can make it. Silent Tactic would really appreciate a strong early pace there …
Thank you, Nelson. I’m honored that you have your top five among those horses I’ve listed as I highly respect your opinion. This Derby, so far, is shaping up as a wide-open affair which makes the event more appealing to this fan. Although, I must say the handicapping becomes more of a challenge, ha, ha!.
Like you, I’m not seeing a clear picture at this juncture of who will be on the early pace in the Derby. I’m going to wait until Super Saturday (April 4th) before I try to figure out who wants to be, or is able to be, up front early on. The excitement builds.
In this day and age when tracks get their entries out early for the big days, Tampa Bay Downs seemed to miss the boat. Here it is just after 4am on Wednesday morning and still no entries for the biggest day of the meet at Tampa Bay Downs.
I was thinking of playing Tampa on Saturday. Maybe they are having a tough time getting entrants. They should call in some favors like Gulfstream did last week.
Imagine what it was like when every track was 24 hour entries.
I’m sure there’ll be plenty of entries. Tampa draws EVERY Saturday card on the Wednesday before. It’s stated clearly in their condition books. And I’m sure there is a reason for it. However, a DRF columnist recently complained about it on X, and a prominent Tampa employee responded to it with a post that said he has brought this up with management many times. But obviously nothing has been done, and I haven’t seen anyone from Tampa explain WHY they do this.
I prefer Wednesday entries, far less scratches ..
You are right about that Matthew. But I like to get busy watching replays.
A 1:34 2/5 two-turn mile, equates to a 1:41 flat mile and sixteenth, how many times has Mark Casse won The Kentucky Derby? It’s Steve’s list, he’s purty durn good, at this….
Im not stopping you Matthew but I prefer you dont answer him.
Possible DILEMNA ahead !?!?!?!?
For Johnny V and IRAD ….
Irad road Renegade in the Sam F Davis and won impressively with him
and this past weekend he rode Commandment in Rebel an also impressive win.
Renegade slated for Arkansas Derby March 28th and Commandment ( Cox after the race he said most likely Fl Dby but did mention Blue Grass ) slated for Florida Derby also on March 28th……. who does he choose????
Johnny V rode Nearly in Holy Bull to a win and rode Class President to a win in the Rebel. Does he choose Nearly in Florida Derby or Class President in Ark Derby or will Pletcher choose maybe another route for Class President to the Wood Memorial on Apr 4th or Blue Grass the same day. I think he will choose Wood Mem in New York as I think Blue Grass may be a harder race. If Pletcher does stay in Ark Derby with CP I think Johnny V will go with Nearly in Florida Derby but if he choose CP that will say a lot about what he thinks of CP.
Something to think about looking ahead
Interesting post. Johnny V seems to be riding first call for Todd Pletcher again. But Irad Ortiz has the mount on Zany. I see Zany as the Kentucky Oaks winner.
I think that Irad Ortiz will stick with Commandment. Just a guess.
I think that Johnny V will stay with Nearly. Again, just a guess.
Of course, they can pick the best horse and then draw the rail in the Derby and all their hopes and dreams go down the drain.
It was just 1986 when Bill Shoemaker won the Derby aboard Ferdinand from the #1 post. I remember it like it was yesterday. 40 years ago. Some would say that the rail post is due for a win. That new starting gate was supposed to help. Not yet.
Will I see a horse win the Derby from the rail in my lifetime? They better do it quick. I’m walking the last mile.
It does help, no longer is the rail post at peril with striking the rail, there’s room now ..
Wow!! Welcome to the Steve Haskin…2026 version. Commandment deserves to be higher on anyone’s list- not just Steve’s. This colt invites competition. I originally thought he drifted in the stretch because he was tried but he actually was trying to engage Wallenbee. And then he bolted by Chief on the gallop out and literally went into another gear. This Derby is wide open due to the lack of starts from so many horses who could turn out to be very good- but Commandment is now proven.
Yes, the move to rail was temporary as once Irad past Sol Dude he moved him more to the center were most of he jockeys wanted their horses that day. Saw a great overhead of the stretch run on that race on Youtube.
So if go to top of the list and read Steve ‘s lead in you will have your answer. BTW it is Steve ‘s list and he can smoke whatever he wants !!!
Yet you ‘scolded’ him last week regarding So Happy. Pot calling kettle. Lol
Agreed and Silent Tactic has put together 2 places and a win on the Derby trail, yet gets little credit here.
Sure! And how many races did Chief Wallenberg run prior to last weekend? He ran well,considering.
Wallenbee.
Steve, I would like to see Don Erectus (JPN) get the needed points to qualify. He has the rare sire side of Holy Bull, and his fifth dam is Dinner Party, the dam of your old friend, the warrior, Jim French.
Longshot to happen but possible
I’ll be making a So Happy/Secured Freedom exacta box, I’m wondering if Bob has Brant fully ready for Saturday ..Big Cap Day—Horae Racing’s first hundred grander that stuck…..huge field, for it’s first running, horses trained in from back east (too bad they cannot do THAT, again, with the plane issues)…Skippylongstoxking will be race favorite, IF he arrives—otherwise John Shirreiffs’s last winner looks very good, for the win…slim pickings, for the one-time great race….
Update! Well Skippy is out …
(I thought it was a plane issue, but it was a Skippy issue, he got antsy …)..
Good decision, he started kicking when plane was taxiing down runway.
Saffie said he had never done that before.
I really like Secured Freedom and might jump on that same exacta box. The Baffert’s and So Happy will all want to be forwardly placed and in the Robert B Lewis Secured Freedom was running outside the entire race and still closed strong to get up for 3rd. I would be very interested in Steve’s analysis of his pedigree…
How ironic it would be if Silent Tactic won the Ky Derby for owner John C Oxley 25 years after winning it with Monarchos. Add to the mix Further Ado who is also on the Ky Derby trail running in the Tampa Bay Derby on Saturday was a homebred out of his mare Sky Dreamer. Oxley then said Ado & sold him at auction to Spendthrift for 550k
Just jumping in this year kinda late. A lot going on for me.
Anyways, I always love Steve’s insights for the Derby. Here we go!
I’ll pipe in more after witnessing more preps.
Look forward to hearing from you.
UPDATE: Direct from owner SF Racing
Litmus Test going to Arkansas Derby
Cherokee Nation to Santa Anita Derby
Pretty much what was expected but as of now they have confirmed this is their plan
A simple and solemn prayer for this year’s Derby:
May they all run safely and soundly. And please don’t let Don Erectus make the starting gate.
Steve, I was delighted that you mentioned how Commandment pricked his ears just before the finish even though he and Chief Wallabee were battling head and head. I noticed that too! I love the confidence that implies. Thanks for your analysis. You observe the horses so closely; I always learn something from you.
Thank you. As I said he is all racehorse. Loves the game.
I real like how versatile Silent Tactic is. I could see him winning the derby
I LOVE Silent Tactic’s pedigree!
Hello Mark. ST is really good.
Steve,
Have to say I like your approach this week to the Derby ranking. This crop this year there certainly isn’t a distinct leader amongst them. Because of the different training techniques being employed by trainers and the spacing of races, setbacks , the weather and late starts of some of the top prospects it seems at times during weeks it been like watching paint dry or someone opening a wrapped present by taking off each piece of scotch tape one piece at a time instead of tearing into it. Now with the next 30 days we will start getting into the nitty gritty of the KD preps With that said this weeks San Felipe and Tampa Derby will again introduce some horses from last years 2 year old crop namely Further Ado and Brant making there 3 year old debut. In the San Felipe I will be really interested in the running style employed by Brant. Will he be running on the frontend pushing the pace or sitting off the pace and coming with one big run at the end. In the BC Juv he showed some fight in him at the end of the race coming back at Ted Noffey but then tired. I think he needs a race and best chance of him winning this race will be coming from way off the pace if he pushes the pace I think we will similar results like the BC Juv. As for Further Ado he just has to do what he did in the Kentucky Jockey Juv. I like his running style which is similar to Paladin.
I like So Happy for the San Felipe as long he is kept off the pace. Looks like there is some early speed in the race so he should be able to be taken back. Mike Smith has expressed a lot of confidence in him.
On another note I really liked the way Commandment galloped out after the FOY he was full of energy and looked like he could have run another race right then and there. Did not see Chief Wallabee after but really looked good before and in the race.
Good job this week Steve and have a Great Week !!!
Sorry Steve, I reread you comment on Commandment and you did mention that after race gallop out. It was impressive and when the outrider did catch him he had his ears pricked and was looking around as if he was ready to take on all challenger… missed seeing him and CW after the race. I will go to Youtube and see if they show the gallop out.
Just rewatched the race again on YOUTUBE via a Fanduel TV feed. Saw the ear flick at the finish line and then the re-engagement with CW . But also a little while after the outrider corralled him he was on his toes and ears pricked upward … he was rarin’ to go…. I really like that !!! Unfortunately did not see much of CW after the race other than the re-engagement.
Thanks for picking it up after the camera went off him. you gotta love him
Delighted to see Chief Wallabee at number 3. Is it known where is name came from?
Agree totally with your opening statement.
Steve, I had to laugh when I read your lede. You are absolutely right about the first eight horses — maybe more! —being interchangeable. I usually do my own top 12 or 15 list in anticipation of yours before you post the week’s column. This time I was so perplexed I deleted all the numbers and threw up my hands.
Keep up the good work!
RE: G2, San Felipe Stakes, post positions.
1) Flashy Fritz
2) Start the Ride
3) Secured Freedom
4) Brant
5) Potente
6) So Happy
7) Robusta
Without question, Brant will be the morning line favorite and the one to beat, IMO.
However, So Happy could give Brant all he can handle, IMO. Hall of Fame rider Mike Smith has expressed several positive comments, following his San Vincente win. Mike was in the saddle for his latest work on 3-1, going 4 furlongs in 46.80, and mentioned how easily he went that fast, without any urging on his part.
I’ll go with So Happy in the San Vincente Stakes.
Safe trips to all.
EDIT: I’ll go with So Happy in the San Felipe Stakes.
If Skippylongstocking is scratched, the Big Cap will be down to just 6 horses.
Full Serrano is a Grade 1 horse, but not at a mile and a quarter. The rest of them…….?????
Decades ago was a million dollar purse…
Yep it is a shame what has happen to the “Big Cap” . Middle East races have killed it !!! BTW …. Skippylongstocking is out of the race… Acted up on the plane that was to fly him to California and he had to be taken off the flight.
This year’s renewal will be the one that lowers it’s graded status…the 3/2 favorite has not won a stakes race….
Me picking a Derby horse is the kiss of death to their aspirations so I am holding out. However, reading this column is the highlight of my day. Thank you Steve for the hard work.
I appreciate it . Thank you
Seemed to me that Wallabee with a better trip, wins the FOY. Sort of glad for the 2nd place, should get some people off his wagon. My lingering thought is does a Constitution baby want the derby distance?
Most important, this article makes my early work week bearable.
Lol. You buried the lead as they say. He sure ran like the distance would be no problem. But you never know. Hes still getting a lot of hype. Thoro-Graph numbers should be interesting.
Hmmm. No mention of Six Speed? Is he still on the KD trail?
Have to see if he can stretch out.
Cernor, distance shouldn’t be a problem.
I agree
Silent Tactic gave Class President 5 lbs….that may have been the difference in the race. Class President oozes class. Great runs by both horses.
With the war in the Middle East in progress it has affected UAE with travel and could also affect the rest of the racing season there.
You may need to revisit your thoughts Steve on who’s going to qualify from there.
I havent had many thoughts but they did race during their attacks so who knows. It’s a question who can get there and who can leave
The Dubai Racing Club has not mentioned canceling.
Forever Young was on main track this morning.
Emirates has canceled flight after attack on Dubai Airport.
Japan has said horses are fine and calm.
Some races on undercard postponed until March 15.
As you say will probably be a matter who can get in.
And 5lbs would equate to around 3.5 lengths in conventional handicapping analysis
But you also have figure in the vast difference in experience and foundation.
Garry, let’s not forget that Class President had to fly in from Florida while Silent Tactic didn’t have the upheaval of traveling.
That is true and there is no knocking CP on only his third career start but for me Silent Tactic’s performance ( with the weight differential ) is the best we have seen on the Derby trail to date
Hey Dewey, you had to be proud of Class President the way he ran and won the Rebel. He got into a match race in the stretch with Silent Tactic and prevailed. Excited to see where he goes next and hope that John Velasquez rides him in his final prep and in the KY Derby.
Proud indeed, Joe. I love CP’s grit and intelligence. He’s on the upside and will continue to improve. One thing, Joe, that has me a bit concerned is that Pletcher said that he might just work Class President up to the Kentucky Derby. Did you hear the same? With only three races under his belt, I think that would be a big mistake. In any case, Johnny V. really seems to like CP and in any conflict with Nearly, I believe he’ll stick with our boy. Fingers crossed.
This weekend, I’m looking forward to see Canaletto in the TB Derby. He was impressive in breaking his maiden and he appears to have a promising future. On the left coast, Baffert has entered his multi-million dollar mdn winner, Potente, in the San Felipe. Keep ’em coming.
Corr: He’s on the upside (s/be upswing).
Dewey – I did hear that CP might train up to the Derby like you said, but I doubt that will happen because that would be a big mistake. There are several preps in APR and Pletcher said there are several preps left and that all options are open. I believe and certainly hope CP will run again before the Derby. He is lightly raced and needs to stretch out to 1 1/8 before the Derby. Maybe the Wood Memorial is where CP might end up.
Silent Tactics is the Rodney Dangerfield horse! Keeps going off a good price .I know the Beyer was higher in Florida, it just looked (to me) that the Rebel battle was better, they were both impressive, Silent Tactic continues to run bang-up races, on dirt ..he is looking like a 10-1 Derby contender!…
Agree Matthew, I believe Silent Tactic and Class President are both very live KY Derby win contenders. They both can save that 100+ BSF at 1 1/4 in the KY Derby.
I think So Happy will sit a stalking trip just outside the front runner, and just draw away….just a gut feeling….
Horses coming off sprints did pretty well last weekend.
Good point… so Happy (so far) has been the 2026 Baffert-Buster, he drew well, I’m not sure they want Brant on the lead, it looks like they may have no choice…
Brant….reminds me a bit, like Silver Charm….medium sized…..Litmus Test and now Cherokee Nation….both are “big guns”, in frame size, I notice you are giving Cherokee his due, because 1:34 2/5 is PHENOMENAL, for a three year old at Santa Anita! He might be a horse that is trip-dependant, one that cannot create his own luck—a “win or run out” type…I can work out a wager like that, first things first, can he run another like THAT, if he does, if he runs big again, in the SA Derby—he will be Derby favorite….I have seen no other three year old, that can do 1:34 2/5, like Cherokee did…..that said…he is not my type of Derby play, I will put up a trifecta with him on top, but he won’t be my win wager….
Hopefully Canaletto can continue that trend. Yes a one turn 8 furlong race is a sprint. Ask Napoleon Solo.
Hi Steve
Your opening statement says it all, the top eight are interchangeable. From my perspective, the cream will raise to the top subsequent to the running of the Florida Derby, Santa Anita Derby, Arkansas Derby, Blue Grass and Louisiana Derby. I didn’t mention the Wood Memorial because that race has not produced a KD winner since Old Shep was a pup. In my view, this year’s Kentucky winner will emerge from one of the afore mentioned prep races. The Florida Derby field should be very competitive and the Arkansas Derby field as well, IMO. However, it remains to be seen how the Santa Anita Derby field will shake out. Indecision on Baffert’s part has kept a lot of people guessing as to which one of his colts is his top Derby prospect. Paladin and Chip Honcho appear to be the top two that will be competing in the Louisiana Derby.
That said, I’m hopeful that So Happy makes a good showing in the San Felipe and moves forward to compete in the SA Derby.
Thanks for all you do, Steve. Your hard work is much appreciated.
Thanks Bill.
You’re welcome, Steve.
Hi Bill – Paladin Is targetting the Bluegrass and not the LA Derby.
Thanks, Joe. It’s hard to keep up with which horse is running where.
BTW, good luck with your bets.
Thanks Bill.
Steve, Your comment about that voice in your head or going with that gut feeling is like the hair on the back of your neck rising is there to protect us and is usually correct. The trick is to listen and don’t try to shrug it off. Had that same feeling in 2005 when I saw Giacomo in the DRF Experimental Handicap. The hard part was to stay tuned in to that frequency! Another concise analysis this week . Thanks
I hope you listened to it.
I listened and heard but I didn’t hear that cry in the wilderness from Closing Argument!
The funny thing about that was that during that spring was that a women’s shoe company was doing an ad blitz in the NY Post and Daily news with half page adds for Giacomo shoes staring at me every day. Synchronicity or just Random Chaos Sometimes the stars align. The Wonder of it all!
The funny thing about that was that during that spring was that a women’s shoe company was doing an ad blitz in the NY Post and Daily news with half page adds for Giacomo shoes staring at me every day. Synchronicity or just Random Chaos Sometimes the stars align. The Wonder of it all!
Cherokee Nation is Baffert’s Finest!
Your assessment of the top 10 horses and their credentials as legitimate Derby horses is spot-on.
I do not recall any Derby trail with so many preps decided by such small margins between the first and runner-up horses.
The following are some results lately and their respective first to second margins :
Risen Star: 0.5 length
Sunland Derby: nose
John Battaglia: neck
Foutain of Youth: neck
Rebel: nose
Even Greenwich Village took the two last Stakes on turf by whiskers.
Six of the top 8 were involved in those (Stakes) closed calls. The only exception is Nearly winning the Holy Bull by almost 6 lengths.
Another outlier was Talk to Me Jimmy who dominated the Withers by 11 lenghts; but he needs to do it again in the Wood Memorial to enter the ranking.
It is not very likely to see more photo finishes but Brant and So Happy look so close on paper and Further Ado won’t have it so easy against Canaletto and The Puma at Tampa either.
With so little separating the top horses, the rankings become all the more thrilling!
Good stuff Nelson.
Disappointed Boyd was not entered in the San Felipe. Like Cherokee Nation Baffert shipped him to race in Ky & won for a listed stakes at Churchill after only a Maiden race in California prior. 2 races 2 wins not seen since just workout after workout. He was listed as probable so maybe he is shipping out of town who knows with Bob but it better be soon…..
He had a setback and baffert never really felt he was a 10f horse.
Saw this morning now listed as ”Possible” for Virginia Derby will know soon enough running out of options.. I know Zendan Racing has no love for Churchill Downs Inc would love to show up Derby week with a runner. Oddly Caesars Place lower their odds on Boyd this week maybe they know something we don’t lol….
Can’t understand the odds on WH for Boyd the last 5 weeks. Somebody lost their shirt or WH is so afraid of Bafferts horses they put the odds so low so nobody plays them.
Thanks Steve, for another great analysis. Of your top 8, “None of them stand out,” is right on. Maybe were setting up for a wide-open 1st. Saturday in May, a handicapper’s dream. But still some time to go. Looking forward to your continued comments.
Great analysis as usual Steve. I’m glad you’ve kept Paladin at #1 and skyrocketed Class President to almost the head of the Class at #4. These are my 2 KDFW horses at 22-1 and 50-1 from KDFW2 &KDFW3. I love how both of these colts are tactical and should be able to place themselves well in the KY Derby and both look like they have the stamina to get the distance. It’s remarkable to think that Paladin will have 3 1 1/8 races under his belt heading into the KY Derby. I believe the extra distance will only help him. I’m so proud of Class President taking on several heavy hitters and coming out on top and galloping out well. It will be interesting to see what his final prep will be. I love that John Velasquez has been his jockey in his last 2 starts and hope he rides him in the Derby. Steve – Do you believe that JV could ride him in the Derby, or is it more likely that he sticks with Nearly or do you believe with his impressive Rebel win, that CP is now in the running to keep JV on Derby Day?
Big decision. JV has been here before. He will discuss with Todd like the old days and figure it out. Many times Pletcher will make the final call.
Steve, did you think Alvarado didn’t push Chief Wallabee very hard in the final 1/16th? It seemed that way to me, and I wonder if Mott didn’t want to take too much out of him since he was concerned about this being only his second start and the need to keep him on an upward trajectory for the Derby.
I think he pushed him hard enough to try to win but I think Bill told him not to knock him out. A race like this in his second start is tough on a horse.
The way the horses had fanned out, in The Rebel….Litmus Test “had” to send—or else possibly shuffle back to fifth or sixth…a stalking trip will be to his advantage, he is such a good looking horse…I’m giving him another chance…
Everyone deserves another chance. Look how many horses have run terrible races and are kept on the Derby trail. Litmus Test definitely deserves another chance for all the reasons I mentioned.
Steve, great analysis….. just as I noted Saturday after the Rebel Stakes…..a major shake up in the rankings.
Looking forward to the San Felipe Stakes this Saturday. So Happy is working lights out and should run a great race.
Looking forward regarding how So Happy does.
Great job as usual, Steve!
Wow – that’s some TG number! The extra rest for the Blue Grass is a good thing coming off that huge number
Well now it’s just about how he classes up…and the lasix thing hopefully isn’t a big deal …