2026 Kentucky Derby Rankings – Week 8
There was an old movie titled “Love With the Proper Stranger.” To me the title applies to this year’s Derby trail. I have never seen so many people falling in love with proper strangers. Having been compiling Derby Rankings, Derby Dozen, and Derby Watch for the past 34 years, I have always gotten to know all the pretty faces before falling in love. But enough metaphors. With so many exciting horses having only two or three lifetime starts, we are falling for virtual strangers. But in this day and age it has been known to work out, and so we look at horses like Paladin, Chief Wallabee, Emerging Market, The Puma, Canaletto, Potente, Iron Honor, Class President, Golden Tempo, and Reagan’s Honor and see them as Derby horses even though we know so little about them. With that said, here is the latest episode of “The Dating Game.” Sometimes you get lucky and find the right one. ~ Steve Haskin
Derby Rankings: March 9, 2026 – Week 8
By Steve Haskin
1. Paladin (Chad Brown, Gun Runner — Secret Sigh, by Tapit)
When Paladin acceeded to the throne of Derbyland following the abdication of Ted Noffey, not many thought his ascension would go unchallenged for so long. In other words, is there anyone out there who is willing or capable of dethroning the current king, albeit one who was proclaimed by yours truly? It’s hard to believe he has run only three times, and a number of his challengers have actually run fewer times than that. With just about everything to say about him having already been said, let’s compare his brief career via Thoro-Graph to the other Chad Brown/Coolmore horse whose path to the Derby he has been following. That of course is Sierra Leone. Both colts went from a maiden race right to the Remsen Stakes and then made their 3-year-old debuts in the Risen Star Stakes. Paladin, like Sierra Leone, is now targeting the Blue Grass Stakes for his final Derby prep. As for Thoro-Graph, Paladin started off with his career with a “5 3/4” compared to a “9” for Sierra Leone). While Sierra Leone jumped to a “4 3/4” in the Remsen, losing by a nose, Paladin actually regressed slightly to a “6” in his victory. The 3-year-old debut is always important, and in the Risen Star, Sierra Leone pretty much paired up his Remsen number with a “4 1/2,” which signified a big forward move to come in the Blue Grass, which it did with a “1 1/2.” He was now ready for a Derby-winning number. Paladin’s slight regression in the Remsen meant he needed to make a significant forward move in the Risen Star and his “3 3/4” was just what you needed to see. Now he has to improve once again to put him around Sierra Leone’s “1 1/2” in the Blue Grass and in position for a peak performance on Derby Day. What all that means is, so far, so good, but he needs to keep improving.
2. Renegade (Todd Pletcher, Into Mischief — Spice is Nice, by Curlin)
He seems to have gotten lost a bit in the Pletcher barn, with Nearly’s easy victory the Holy Bull Stakes and the gutsy score by Class President in the Rebel Stakes. Renegade still hasn’t dazzled anyone with his speed, as Nearly has, or come out on top in a dogfight, as Class President has. But actually he not only has come on top in a dogfight, it was against the No. 1 ranked horse Paladin. Although the stewards took that victory away from him, many felt his disqualification could have gone either way. In the Remsen, even in defeat he received a faster Thoro-Graph number than the victorious Paladin, so chalk up another positive. Also, take note that the last eight Derby preps have been won by one length or less, including five photos and the half-length win by Paladin. Care to guess the last 3-year-old to win a stakes by more than a length? Right, it was none other than Renegade with his 3 3/4-length score in the Sam F. Davis Stakes. But many paid little attention with him beating a 48-1 shot coming off a third at Delta Downs and a maiden with only one start. But that maiden was The Puma, who just won the Tampa Bay Derby. So what does all this add up to? Perhaps it is that Renegade is a lot more talented and exciting than most give him credit for. He has the pedigree and the running style of a Derby horse, and now we just wait for Arkansas Derby for him to finally bust out and make that big splash, even though he has quietly made three splashes in his last three starts. Perhaps this time people will take notice.
3. Chief Wallabee (Bill Mott, Constitution — A la Lucie, by Medaglia d’Oro)
A number of expert handicappers are so enamored with this colt’s race in the Fountain of Youth they elevated him to No. 1 on their Derby rankings. Yes, it is Bill Mott, and if any trainer can get him to win the Derby off only three lifetime starts and none at 2 it is Mott. He actually can thank Mage for boosting one’s confidence he can do it. When Justify became the first horse to accomplish it, his Thoro-Graph numbers were much faster than Chief Wallabee’s and he went into the Derby off a “negative-1” and swept the Triple Crown. Then along came Mage and did it coming off a pair of “5s” and a “3 3/4.” So Chief Wallabee, with a “4” and a “3” already, will definitely top those numbers. He ovbiously has left room for improvement and I like that he was able improve slightly rather than run a huge number and be in danger of peaking too early and facing a “bounce” in his final prep. As if he needed any further boosting, The Puma, who he defeated in his career debut, was impressive winning Saturday’s Tampa Bay Derby. But there is still a little bit of old school left in me, and these latecomers having only three career starts going into the Derby have to be very careful not to shoot any rockets into orbit before the big launch date on the first Saturday in May. He does have one habit in his races, and that is keeping his head cocked to the right until inside the sixteenth pole. I have no idea why he does it, and It apparently has no bearing on his performances, but because he is now one of the Derby favorites, we scrutinize over every little thing, as inconsequential as it may be.
4. Class President (Todd Pletcher, Uncle Mo — Top Quality, by Quality Road)
Some may look at his Thoro-Graph number for the Rebel Stakes and point out that the runner-up Silent Tactic got a faster number by a full point. I am paying no attention to that for several reasons. Silent Tactic actually saved ground along the rail for the first half of the race, while Class President was two-wide. The runner-up came out a couple of paths at the top of the of the stretch to launch his bid, but I just didn’t see their respective trips resulting in a one-point difference of affecting the finish in any way. But more important than that, even if you take the numbers into consideration, Silent Tactic was coming off a career-best “4 1/2” in his previous start, with four two-turn races under his belt, and took another step forward in the Rebel with a strong “2 1/2.” Class President was coming off an “8 3/4” regression dropping back into a sprint, with only two career starts under him, both in one-turn races. So his huge jump to a “3 1/2” against a far more seasoned opponent in his two-turn debut was exactly what he needed to put himself in great position for his final Derby prep. What I learned from the Rebel was that he adjusted beautifully to the two turns, showed excellent tactical speed while rating comfortably, and demonstrated his ability to dig in and fight and snatch the victory when he would have been praised for finishing second.
5. Nearly (Todd Pletcher, Not This Time — Ib Prospector, by Mineshaft)
He hasn’t been talked about much because of his inactivity, but he did turn in a strong five-furlong work in 1:00 3/5 Friday. Going back to his Holy Bull, which seems like a long time ago, he “bounced” from a “1” in his allowance sprint victory to a “5” on Thoro-Graph, so we really don’t know where he goes from there. We also have to remember he will be going into the Kentucky Derby off one race in 14 weeks and into that final race having to rebound off that four-point regression in the Holy Bull. We have ranked him as high as No. 2, so it is only fair to play devil’s advocate and see if the leading contenders might be vulnerable in any way. First off, the Holy Bull was only a six-horse field and the only other two horses who posed any threat, Cannoneer, the 3-2 favorite, and the 7-2 Incredibolt, were nowhere to be found from the top of the stretch to the wire. The pace-setting Cannoneer was done before they reached the quarter pole and Incredibolt was never in the race and was beaten off early. So all Nearly had to do after turning for home with a clear lead was outrun Bravaro, a New York-bred running in open company for the first time, who came back to finish a dull fourth, beaten 11 lengths, in the Fountain of Youth. Again, we’re just showing the cons as well as the pros, and he does have a number of pros, which we have already discussed. I still believe he is a very talented horse who is fast enough to have run that “1” and then come back and put a highly touted horse away through fractions of :45 4/5 and 1:10 2/5. It is hoped the Florida Derby will at least give us a better idea of who he is and in which dierection he is heading.
6. The Puma (Gustavo Delgado, Essential Quality — Eve of War, by Declaration of War)
It really doesn’t take a great deal to pop onto the Top 10 list this year, and this colt did enough in his Tampa Bay Derby victory, as well as his first two races, to suggest this may be just the tip of the iceberg. We now realize just what a strong debut race he ran finishing second to Chief Wallabee after breaking badly and being rushed up. Jumping into the Sam F. Davis Stakes as a maiden against Renegade, he again had a terrible trip trapped in traffic most of the race and not getting clear until it was way too late. He finally got a clear trip on Saturday, but seemingly at a cost, as he raced four-to-five-wide every step of the way, circled the field six-wide on the turn, and outran the two favorites, Further Ado and Caneletto, to win by three-quarters of a length. Losing that much ground, I pay no attention to his 89 Beyer. His Thoro-Graph number will tell us a lot more. All I know is, name a 3-year-old who has faced better horses than Chief Wallabee, Renegade, Further Ado, and Canaletto and run big races against all of them, despite less-than-ideal trips. And he is just now figuring all this out and adjusting to all kinds of obstacles, from bad starts, premature moves, traffic problems, to wide trips. By now, most everyone probably knows he’s not the prettiest mover, with his paddling action, and I wish he hadn’t been hit right-handed several times, causing him to lug in on Caneletto, but we’ve seen horses like Sierra Leone with paddling action that didn’t affect them, and Castellano is still getting to know him. He’s also bred to run all day and surely ran a lot farther than 1 1/16 miles on Saturday.
7. Commandment (Brad Cox, Into Mischief — Sippican Harbor, by Orb)
You wouldn’t think from all the superlatives being directed at Chief Wallabee and the latter’s No. 1 ranking on a number of the experts’ lists, that Commandment actually beat him in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, and did it by looking him right in the eye. But Commandment had the audacity to save ground and get a clear rail trip. It is understandable why those people feel Chief Wallabee has a higher ceiling and a lot more room improvement. But if want to boost Chief Wallabee to the heights he is being boosted, we have to acknowledge that the horse who just beat him is a very good horse. And Commandment is proving that by continuing to win at a higher level each time he runs — from a maiden win to a victory in the listed Mucho Macho Man Stakes to a victory in the Grade 2 Fouintain of Youth Stakes. So we know he is improving, but the question with him is, how much? His Thoro-Graph numbers have escalated from a “12” to an “8 1/4” to a “5 1/2” to a “4 1/4.” Each improvement has decreased, and you would think he will need another improvement of at least two points in his final prep to put him in position to win or be close in the Kentucky Derby. But right now the bottom line with him is that he is as honest and competitive as they come and he still loves to stay competitive and keep going out strong after the wire. No one has out-galloped him yet.
8. Cherokee Nation (Bob Baffert, Not This Time — Believe in Charlie, by Indian Charlie)
I am keeping him in the Top 10 mainly because his ceiling is so high and no one has run as brilliant a race as he did last time out. Now that the proverbial dust has cleared from that one-horse stampede in which he sent all his speed figures spinning out of control, we have some to time to decipher what we saw and what we might expect in the Santa Anita Derby. First off, his form was boosted when Robusta, a horse who narrowly held on to beat him two races back, was beaten a head in Saturday’s San Felipe Stakes. If you believe in the “bounce” theory you have to wonder what lies in store for him coming off a maiden race in which his Thoro-Graph numbers went from an “8 3/4” to a freaky “negative-1.” Baffert said he finally figured it out. That’s like saying a student who was struggling with biology finally figured it out and immediately discovered the structure of DNA. Baffert added that he tweaked his training and the light went on. OK, in that case we should expect another monster performance in the Santa Anita Derby. Even a mini monster performance will do so he doesn’t detonate all that explosive power he now has in his arsenal and saves something for the first Saturday in May. He is now Baffert’s alpha Derby horse in the eyes of many following the third-place finish of Litmus Test in the Rebel Stakes. Looking at his pedigree, he is inbred to the sprinter End Sweep and the miler Valid Appeal, but he has a number of fast horses who could carry their speed a distance of ground, like Indian Charlie, In Excess, Forty Niner, and In Reality.
9. Silent Tactic (Mark Casse, Tacitus — Magical Sign, by Gun Runner)
There is no doubt that he is improving with every race and did get not the kind of trip he wants in the Rebel, moving into contention much earlier than he has in his previous races. That easily could have compromised his stretch run, as he likes to make that big late run. The main question is, should he have out-dueled a horse with only two career starts who had never been two turns after looking like he had him measured at the three-sixteenths pole? He surely had the experience and class edge, and if it weren’t for the winner he would have trounced what looked to be a deep talented field, from which he was pulling well clear in the final furlong. One explanation, other than his change in running style and Class President being a better horse than most people thought, is that he was forced to come back in only 23 days after the one-week postponement of the Southwest Stakes and this was his third 1 1/16-mile stakes of the year. As far a him being a major Derby contender, he is ultra consistent and packs a powerful late kick when used, If you follow Thoro-Graph, he keeps moving closer to Derby range . After pairing “10s,” he went to an “8” to a “4 1/2” to a “2 1/2” in the Rebel, a full point faster than the winner, He still has his big prep in the Arkansas Derby, and with that being his fourth two-turn race this year and sixth of his career, all you need to see is a slight forward move. Even a pairing of that 2 1/2 would put him in position to peak on Derby Day. Wait, did I say the Kentucky Derby will be his fifth two-turn stakes this year? I must have been dreaming of a time long, long ago.
10. Further Ado (Brad Cox, Gun Runner — Sky Dreamer, by Sky Mesa)
I admit I didn’t have the foggiest idea where to rank him. For a horse to run as well as he did coming off more than a three-month layoff, you have to consider it a successful return, finishing a game second, beaten three-quarters of a length. But on the other hand, with the trip he had compared to the first and third-place finishers, you can also ask yourself if a horse with his experience, a Grade 2 victory, and a 20-length maiden romp and “negative-1 Thoro-Graph number” behind him should have beaten a maiden with only two starts and barely finished ahead of a horse coming off only one career start? It all depends on how special you think The Puma and Caneletto are, as they probably ran a better race than he did. But he does have the foundation under him and should be at his very best on Derby Day. He did nothing wrong in the Tampa Derby and fought hard with two strong horses rallying outside him and a sneaky good grass-to-dirt horse named Redland Rebels from the barn of the always sneaky good Patrick Biancone inside him. If you’re lookling at this strictly as a good prep to prepare him for his final prep and the Kentucky Derby, then you have to come away feeling positive about his chances moving forward.
11. Canaletto (Chad Brown, Into Mischief — Distorted Music, by Distorted Humor)
Before anything, I am acklowedging the distinct possibility that I have him ranked too low, and because of Chief Wallabee’s No. 3 ranking I can’t even use my usual excuse of having only three lifetime starts and none at 2 going into the Kentucky Derby. But he and Chief Wallabee, and Potente, and Iron Honor are all strangers to me and I have no idea who they really are. I could say he was beaten by a horse who was beaten by Chief Wallabee, but won’t because The Puma is a much better horse now and Further Ado is probably at least as good as Commandment, who beat Chief Wallabee. It is still true that I’m not crazy about so many lightly raced horses going into the Derby and with no 2-year-old foundation, but it is also true I feel he ran a sensational race in the Tampa Bay Derby and if he improves off that it would not surprise me if he ran huge at Churchill Downs. First off, he was forced widest of all going into the first turn, and like The Puma remained wide every step of the way while moving into striking position down the backstretch. He made a big wide move around the far turn with only The Puma outside him and Further Ado rallying inside him. In the stretch, he was stuck on his left lead with his head cocked to the inside. Not the best scenario for a horse coming off one maiden race. He was still on his left lead when The Puma came in on him and put him in the big squeeze with Further Ado, causing him to carom off both horses. The Puma outran him, but he kept digging in and just missed second by a head, beaten only three-quarters of a length, while actually coming back at the end. The bottom line is, this year it is much more about the observations than the rankings, which are interchangeable and mean little. But, yes, this is one to watch, and who likely will move up.
12. Reagan’s Honor (Cherie DeVaux, Honor A. P. — Rutile, by Medaglia d’Oro)
He stretched out to five furlongs in his works and turned in a beauty in company with Golden Tempo, as the pair went head and head down the stretch in 1:00 2/5 and did it very smoothly. Golden Tempo will remain at home for the Louisian Derby, while Reagan’s Honor will head to Keeneland for the Blue Grass Stakes, where he will be facing the likes of Paladin and possibly Class President and the winner and/or runner-up of the Tampa Bay Derby. That will be a big step up off a maiden victory and he will need a huge performance to get into the Kentucky Derby. There also is the “bounce” question. As we mentioned last week, the strides he has made with every start have been extraordinary, going from an “18 1/4” Thoro-Graph number to a “10 1/2,” and then an enormous leap to a “3 1/2,” doing it flawlessly like a seasoned veteran. That brings us to the aforementioned bounce question. Will he regress after such a humongous jump or has he improved to such a degree that he can keep that upward spiral going? If it is the latter, I’m not sure anyone can beat him. But he will need the class to go wiith it, and we won’t know that until the Blue Grass.
13. Chip Honcho (Steve Asmussen, Connect — Miss My Rose, by Magician)
Talk about a horse getting lost in all the activity and all the new faces. It is easy to forget that the horse who just got up to beat him in the Risen Star Stakes is the No. 1-ranked horse. No it doesn’t make sense, but neither does anything else on this year’s bizarre Derby trail, in which new horses, especially those with the most limited experience possible, keep entering the picture. He has been working every Monday, so as of this writing I assume he will be working just after this gets published, and I will update it once I get the time of the work. With him pointing to the Louisiana Derby, and with his consistency, natural speed, and staying power, he could be a very enticing price in this week’s Pool 5 of the Future Wager, especially with many people putting their money on all these new exciting newcomers who are not nearly as proven and seasoned as he is. And with Asmussen giving him so many five-furlong works you can be sure he’ll more than capable of carrying his speed 1 3/16 miles down that long Fair Grounds stretch.
14. Golden Tempo (Cherie Devaux, Curlin — Carrumba, by Bernardini)
Here is another forgotten horse who also could be an interesting play at a monster price in the Future Wager. I say that because we have seen how strong a finisher he is and he will be getting blinkers in the Louisiana Derby. He worked with them in his five-furlong drill in a swift 1:00 2/5 in company swith Reagan’s Honor, and I like the fact that DeVaux had him on the inside and he was going toe to toe with his more brilliant workmate and was never being asked. He never let Reagan’s Honor get his head in front and maintained a half-lengh advantage on the gallop-out. DeVaux said she just wants him to get a more tactical position in the Louisiana Derby rather than be as far out of it as he was in the Risen Star, and she added he was much better with the blinkers. So will we see a more tactical and dangerous horse next time. We know he is going to love the added distance with his pedigree, so he is another worth taking a closer look at in the Future Wager for all the unknown factors that come with the addition of blinkers, the longer distance, and the fact that with only three lifetime starts he no doubt will keep improving with experience. And after pairing career-high “7 3/4” Thoro-Graph numbers, he should be ready for a solid forward move.
15. Potente (Bob Baffert, Into Mischief — Sweet Sting, by Awesome Again)
Here we go again, trying to figure out the two-race teasers that have infiltrated the Derby trail this year. And now we have a Baffert mystery horse to go along with those trained by Bill Mott and Chad Brown. I do know Baffert has always thought very highly of this colt and was certain he was going to get better the farther he goes. Like the Tampa Bay Derby winner he only got an 89 Beyer and beat a 67-1 shot by a head. But that horse did beat the old version of Cherokee Nation two races back. However, other than Cherokee Nation and his sudden improvement, I have not seen anything in California that has made much of an impression. We lost Plutarch and I would love to have seen Intrepido in the San Felipe to at least given this race some substance, considering Brant was unable to do that. All we can do with the San Felipe is acknowledge the fact that they went the fourth quarter in almost :26 seconds and a sprinter finished two lengths back in third. But that does not mean Potente is not a serious horse who no doubt is going to keep improving. We just don’t have his competition by which to gauge him, nor do we have any outstanding speed figures or dominating performances. So until he shows us more in the Santa Anita Derby, we’ll just keep him here for the time being.
KNOCKING ON THE DOOR
I really wanted to keep LITMUS TEST in the Rankings now that many have relegated him to No. 3 in the Baffert chain of command. But because I have too much to say to squeeze into a comment I am going to make a vow and say he will be my General MacArthur and shall return. The reason is so simple, as we will explain. Let’s take a look at this colt’s rather unusual (to say the least) career. First he gets thrown into a Grade 1 stakes off a fairly mundane three-quarters of a length maiden victory in his career debut. After finishing fourth behind two stablemates, he gets on a plane and flies to Keeneland for another Grade I stakes going two turns for the first time against Ted Noffey. Back in California, he runs a game fourth, beaten only 1 3/4 lengths by Ted Noffey again, in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He comes back for the Los Alamitos Futurity and wins at 3-5. By January, he is Baffert’s big Derby hope and is going to be put “in bubble wrap.”
But surprisingly he shows up in the entries for the Southwest Stakes and Oaklawn Park of all places and is scratched after the race is postponed a week. Then he is listed as possible for the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, but doesn’t run there either. Instead he is “on the fence,” as Baffert said, for the San Felipe, but isn’t even nominated and unexpectedly shows up in the entries for the Rebel Stakes after Baffert decides not to send Brant, who had been pointing for it. This time he gets on the plane and heads to Oaklawn coming off only three half-mile works, not exactly Baffert’s style pointing for a big race coming off a 2 1/2-month layoff. Being fresh and with only those three short works, he goes to the front, which is not his preferred style of running, sets as pretty stiff pace of :23 and :46 3/5, and tires in the stretch to finish a respectable third. With so many changes of plans and last-minute decisions, traveling to Arkansas, and no long stiff works, does it all simply come down to him being a short horse? Baffert normally doesn’t send out short horses, so who knows. What I do know is that he went from being put in bubble wrap because he was Baffert’s best Derby hope to one wild and crazy ride. I surely will give him another chance. Just don’t ask me where he’s running next.
NAPOLEON SOLO is another who needs to be mentioned and I’m pretty sure will be ranked again. The more I watch the Fountain of Youth the more I think he might have lulled everyone to sleep on his chances of being a serious Derby contender. It’s easy to say he doesn’t want to go a distance. This horse had his physical issues over the winter and it’s just great seeing him return. The last thing he needed in the Fountain of Youth was to break last and then rush up and wind up outside the horse (Solitary Dude) who broke three stalls outside him. He was forced to go four-wide into and around the turn, and that pretty much did him in right there, considering this was his first two-turn race. He did stalk the pace in third through some stiff fractions and did move up to challenge for the lead around the far turn, but as soon as Chief Wallabee went by him on the outside you knew he was done, and his jockey Kendrick Carmouche basically hand-rode him the rest of the way, no doubt saving something for his next race when he would be tighter and fitter, and it is hoped luckier.
I did not see a horse who was 100-percent for this race and that is understandable. He will be next time. That could very well be in the Wood Memorial over the track in which he demolished his field in the Champagne. If he breaks well this time it would be no surprise to see him outrun everyone early and just keep going, especially having this two-turn experience behind him. I’ll be watching his works to see how Chad Summers brings him up to the race. He has a lot of improving to do to be considered a Derby horse, but we have seen what he’s capable of, and that is something special.
As good and tough a horse as IRON HONOR is, he can’t go any higher than Knocking on the Door, especially with the emergence of Canaletto making him look more like a Preakness horse. His Gotham was an excellent performance and I can see him getting even better in the Wood Memorial, but he did come home his final quarter in the Gotham in :26 2/5, and I need to see a faster closing fraction if I’m going to consider a horse with so little experience a serious Kentucky Derby horse. So for now I am going to appreciate him for what he’s done and for what he should be capable of doing and wait to see how what he does going two turns for the first time in April. He is a powerful colt who runs hard and fights, and he has plenty of stamina in his pedigree, so he does have physicality and bloodlines going for him. In short, he looks like a live Preakness horse.
Speaking of Chad Brown, How will POWERSHIFT’S disappointing effort in the Tampa Bay Derby affect the glowing reputation of EMERGING MARKET, who narrowly beat him in a maiden race that got everyone excited? Each horse is diferent and you never know how he will perform when facing winners for the first time, especially in a stakes. If you believed in Emerging Market before, you have to stay positive, but by pointing for the Louisiana Derby, I doubt whether Brown and owner Seth Klarman will point for the Kentucky Derby off only two lifetime starts. So, like Iron Honor, he looks more like a Preakness horse. But Iron Honor can still earn his way to the Derby with a big race in the Wood Memorial, which would at least give him three starts. Emerging Market worked a half in :49 4/5 on Saturday.
It looks as though POTENTE, ROBUSTA, SO HAPPY, and SECURED FREEDOM will all come back in the Santa Anita Derby. And why shouldn’t they? There is no one to be afraid of and any of these horses could win. The big disappointment was Secured Freedom, but trainer Tim Yakteen said it might have been mostly about immaturity, as he was stuck down on the inside with nowhere to go when he looked as if he wanted to run. He really was trapped down in there and I can certainly see him improving big-time with a better trip. The same with So Happy, who ran well and could also improve with a two-turn race under him. Robusta certainly improved with the addition of blinkers for the San Felipe, and we have seen twice what he is capable of doing in the right spot. And the Santa Anita Derby looks like the right spot for all of them. Another who could show up is the Sunland Derby winner PAVLOVIAN, who worked five furlongs in 1:02 1/5 Sunday. But we’ll see if trainer Doug O’Neill wants to run him and Robusta or send Pavlovian out of town.
Being we have been so forgiving this week, let’s also give BLACKOUT TIME another shot with the Rebel Stakes behind him. McPeek’s Derby horses, including UNIVERSE and LIBERTY NATIONAL, have not performed up to expectations this year, but I believe Blackout Time is a far better horse than he showed in the Rebel. Again, he was coming back after some minor issues and being scratched by the veterinarians the morning of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Assuming he is well physically, he may have just needed this race and we will see if he is the same horse we saw last year in his next start. As a former Wall Street flunky, it is often wise to buy when a stock is down if you believe the company has the potential to grow. While we’re on the subject, definitely throw out SOLDIER N DIPLOMAT’S race in the Rebel Stakes after a terrible beginning that pretty much ended any chance he had.
Next week we take a breather with only the Virginia Derby slated. Run at 1 1/8 miles around one turn, it offers different things to different horses depending on what their aspirations are. Timing-wise it is not ideal as a Kentucky Derby prep unless a trainer is willing to run back in one of the final major preps in three weeks or use his final prep in the Lexington Stakes. Most trainers now won’t run back in three weeks and are more likely to use the Lexington as a prep for the Preakness. Some may even decide to wait seven weeks for the Derby. There are several interesting horses entered. If there is a Derby horse in here it is the once highly ranked INCREDIBOLT, who has already won the two-turn Street Sense Stakes, but for some inexplicable reason sauntered home beaten 25 lengths in the Holy Bull. He has been training beautifully and we’ll see if that last race was just one of those bad days and he can return to his old self. Bob Baffert is coming with the speedy BUETANE, who has placed in three stakes, and if the track is anything like last year you’re likely to see another wire-to-wire job in blazing time. The Brad Cox-trained CONFESSIONAL, second to Nearly in an allowance race, is trying to rebound off a poor effort in the Sam F Davis Stakes. One intriguing horse with good tactical speed and a distance pedigree is CLOCKER SPECIAL, a late May 9 foal who seems to be improving with every start for Rudy Brisset and is training well at Keeneland.
Despite two impressive victories in as many starts, both at Turfway Park, LOCKSTOCKNPHAROAH has been entered here by Tom Drury instead of waiting for ther Jeff Ruby Steaks. If he handles dirt like he does the synthetic surface, we could have an interesting horse to watch. Todd Pletcher has entered GRITTINESS and EPIC DESIRE, who have a combined record of one-for-11. The latter broke his maiden at Tampa and was fifth, beaten nine lengths, in the Sam F. Davis, while the winless Grittiness, has shown a good closing kick at times, is coming off a second, beaten 11 lengths, in the Withers Stakes. The Will Walden-trained HIGH CAMP has some upside with a good second and a one-length maiden score at Gulfstream going seven furlongs. Doug O’Neill is shipping WORK off a neck maiden victory going 6 1/2 furlongs on grass. Finally, another horse trying to rebound off a poor effort in the Sam F. Davis is the maiden OCELLI, who had previously finished in the money in his three previous starts.
Racing historian, author, and award-winning retired journalist for the Daily Racing Form and The Blood-Horse, Steve Haskin was inducted into the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame’s Media Roll of Honor in 2016. Known for his racing knowledge and insightful prose, he has been an exclusive contributor to Secretariat.com since 2020.
Steve, Just an FYI – Romeo worked today! Thank you for asking about him!
Incredibolt was 90-1 on the morning line for the Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool#5 and closed at 16-1.
Recency is still a thing in horse racing. I remember when American Pharoah was dominating the 2015 crop running 24/48 fractions and he was anointed by many as Man o War. Not saying incredibolt isn’t a nice horse… but 15-1 at this stage is a bit much.
You’re aware I’m certain, each year some horses are proclaimed the next Triple Crown Winner from a few overzealous ‘fans’.
I’m interested in seeing how Golden Tempo reacts, to the blinkers, if he settles….(Blinkers added van make a horse rank)…if he settles back and not as far back….I’m interested to see what happens I’m thinking perhaps a big performance….
I thought Great White would have been better served, going in the Jeff Ruby, having already won on the Tapeta…maybe he needs more time? Or…they want to see if he can dirt?….I don’t see any Paladins, in the ‘Ruby, though…
Watching Incredibolt’s browband in his head brings the imagery of all the great horses trained by Bill Mott wearing that distinctive striped facepiece.
Riley Mott use of similar designed browband in his horses intimates that he is carrying the legacy of his Hall of Fame father.
That feeling led me to reflect on other great dynasties that made in American racing.
The most famous father and son trainers is Bejamin A. Jones and Horace A. “Jimmy” Jones bot inducted in the Hall of Fame. Ben holds the record of six Kentucky Derby wins and Jimmy won two Derbys and four Preakness. Their family resume will very likely remain insuperable for many generations if not forever.
Other prominent father and son trainers are Hirsh and John Jacobs, Farrell and Gary Jones, Max Hirsch and W.J. “Buddy” Hirsch, Dale and Bart Baird, Chris and Jeremiah Englehart, H. Allen “The Chief” Jerkens and Jimmy Jerkens, Richard and Gary Mandella.
I am sure all these names will evoke memories of legendary horses, epic races, and uforgettable stories.
Perhaps the most notable (3-generation) pedigree in the training craft is the Van Berg family.
Marion Van Berg was a Hall of Fame owner/trainer whose son Jack Van Berg is the Hall of Fame trainer of Gate Dancer and Alysheba. Jack was also the first trainer to reach 5,000 wins. Jack’s son Tom Van Berg is continuing the legacy of the family. Tim Van Berg also contributed to the dynasty working alongside his father Jack as an assistant trainer.
Jack Van Berg was the mentor of Bill Mott and many other trainers and jockeys.
The father-and-son team of D. Wayne Lukas and Jeff Lukas is iconic. Jeff never officially started a horse in his own name but was instrumental in the success of the Lukas operation for over a decade during the 80’s and 90’s.
I didn’t know that Todd Pletcher’s dad is also the veteran trainer, Jake Pletcher, who runs a training center in Florida.
Like the Motts, the other active father-and-son trainers presently are Mark Casse and Norm Casse. You can say that the kids have been very successful so far even becoming Stakes winners faster than their famous fathers did in their beginnings.
The enduring legacy of integrity, horsemanship, talent, and work ethic passed down through these second (and future) generations of horsemen remains one of the pillars that sustain the sport of kings.
That was a very nice read. 8 Derbies between father/son Jones!! I was unaware of that record. Thank you for sharing.
Well said, Nelson. I didn’t realize that there so many father/son trainers out there, but it really shouldn’t be surprising as dad would have rousted junior out of bed to help out at the stable. Sleep? You don’t need sleep, you need a good work ethic, ha, ha!
Oh, and lest we forget, there’s the father/son team of Christophe and Miguel Clement. Miguel, I feel, has a bright future in the sport.
Thank you Dewey. You are rigth about me missing some notable father-son duos.
In my intention of being as brief as possible I missed for instance: Art Sherman and his son, Gustavo Delgado and his son, the D’Angelo family, and Miguel Clement.
If Miguel Clement is blessed with kids who wanted to be trainers they might very well be the most beautiful ones in America.
Thank you Nelson, I enjoyed reading this!
My pleasure Lynda. I am glad you like it.
I was just looking at my Equibase Virtual Stable, where I keep the horses that I have made future Derby wagers on, and here is my list for the last three years:
2024 – Knightsbridge, Red Route One
2025 – Journalism, Patch Adams, Sovreignty
2026 – Englishman, Further Ado, Paladin, Renegade
It’s very interesting to see what these horses have turned out to be.
Note: Although Englishman will not be running in the Derby this year, I truly believe he is going to end up being a very nice racehorse.
David
DTG, I guess you know that Englishman is entered in race 10 at FG on Thursday, an optional allowance 6f race.
RE: G2, Louisiana Derby, 100 Derby points.
1) Pavlovian
2) Autobahn
3) Chip Honcho
4) Universe
5) Golden Tempo
6) Spirit of Royal
7) Blacksmith
8) Easterly
9) Emerging Market
Chip Honcho and Golden Tempo appear to be the top two entries in referenced race.
Emerging Market looked very impressive in his maiden win, and his pedigree is inundated with class and stamina, top and bottom. His brisnet late pace figure of 106 is by far the highest in the field. The long stretch at the Fair Grounds should be very beneficial for this Candy Ride closer.
That said, I’ll wheel Chip Honcho and Golden Tempo on top, in the first two slots, with Pavlovian, Universe, Blacksmith and Emerging Market underneath in the 3rd and 4th slots. That is: 3,5/ 3,5/ 1,4,7,9/ 1,4,7,9 ($2.00 superfecta wager). In addition, I’ll flip that over, using 1,4,7,9 on top, in the first slot, with Chip Honcho and Golden Tempo, in the 2nd and 3rd slots, with 1,4,7,9 in the 4th slot. That is: 1,4,7,9/ 3,5/ 3,5/ 1,4,7,9.
Safe trips to all.
Very good Super Bill. All the Hi-5 horses are contemplated there…
I will do the same combinations but with Blacksmith and Chip Honcho as the top placers.
#4-Universe could be following in the hoofsteps of Incredibolt and rebound big for good payouts in the Exotics.
The Jeff Ruby promises better payouts though …
Thanks, Nelson.
After four previous starts, Blacksmith finally broke his maiden on his fifth start which was quite impressive. I’ve always been somewhat concerned when a horse ships in for a stakes race, versus horses that will be racing on their home track.
As an example, Buetane shipped in for the Virgina Derby, and was the post time favorite. He finished 4th, over 6 lengths behind the winner.
From my perspective, Chip Honcho is clearly the horse to beat. Golden Tempo will be right at home, which is the reason I prefer him vs Blacksmith. The horse that just might upset the apple cart is Emerging Market, IMO. His late pace figure of 106 is scary.
BTW, I really enjoyed reading your comment on the prominent father and son trainers that were successful in the Derby.
The wealth of knowledge you bring to this site is unmatched vs other contributors. We are fortunate to have you as a regular.
Thanks Bill for your kind words. I really appreciate it.
It is just a matter of feeling we can speak our minds and share thoughts about horse racing history.
This forum encourages open and friendly discussions, handicapping comments, and sharing historical information. It is fun to connect past and present through historical recollections…
Leonard and Steve have done a monumental job in keeping the respectful and insightful tone here. It is not an easy task nowadays.
Well said, Nelson.
Good luck down the road on this year’s Derby trail.
Comparing the odds available today in the Twinspires/Public pool vs at William Hill, it looks like there are 2 horses with a difference:
Class President is currently 27-1 in public pool, and is 12-1 at WH;
Golden Tempo is 34-1, vs 20-1…
If I could bet the Twinspires pool, I would bet both of them at those odds…
Public likes Incredibolt more than book: 13-1 vs 25-1
Impressive the move he made. Not concerned regarding Beyer number.
Cherokee Nation is currently 15-1…..should he repeat his maiden win (best Ragozin # by far of this crop so far)…should he run another like that—15-1 would look pretty good…
I was quite taken, by Incredibolt yesterday, he remembers bed me of Chrome, the way he spurted clear then eased up late….that track was fast, so I’m not going to be swayed by that…also it’s one turn, so there’s questions still…but the way he cleared that field—did remind me of the way Chrome won….
Mathew W
I agree.
He’s definitely got the pedigree though. He’s now on my radar.
Have the beyer figs for the va derby been published?
Yep, not that they tell much.
Incredibolt 88
Grittiness 83
Confessional 82
Souped up tracks do not Beyer well …
They say that the races were not very good…the track was lightning yesterday, l
Thx…I thought they’d be higher….visually he looked good….at about the 8th pole, Incredibolt was boxed in between 4 horses and battled throught it…very impressive…
Next Saturday’s Louisiana Derby will be the 12th of 14 races on a monster card.
“Monster” because of the ridiculous 14 races. Not that the card is that great.
No offense.
I read somewhere that Golden Tempo would be adding blinkers. It could make a difference. But, many times, a closer is a closer and blinkers don’t make a difference. But Cherie Devaux knows what she is doing. We’ll see.
Chad Brown will be sending Emerging Market coming off a big number. The Todd Pletcher runner that he beat “bounced” out of that race in the Tampa Bay Derby.
I don’t remember a lot of Chad Brown horses bouncing. He gives his horses more time. In this case, an extra 2 weeks.
They need points….something to remember…it’s why I rank Potential at the top of Bob’s barn, he is IN….maybe his last prep won’t be as stressful?..
Well up to now, there hasn’t been that “wow!” performance, in the preps…today had that stylish dominance you like to see, he’s one to watch!…
His rider took care of him, he saved horse….I’ll be watching this colt …
That was Jaime Torres, who rode Seize the Grey to victory in the Preakness in 2024. Happy to see him with a potential live Derby mount.
Exactly!
My sentiments exactly!
Sorry I missed seeing the VA Derby live–Incredibolt’s run was exciting!
I should have seen Incredibolt coming. He was the only graded stakes winner in the Virginia Derby. Congratulations to the horse, jockey, and Riley Mott.
Incredibolt was pretty good today and looked magnificent on the track.
The trouble with the Virginia Derby is that it is 7 weeks to the Kentucky Derby(49 days).
Does Riley Mott go into the Derby off a 7 week layoff or run in another prep?
The Lexington could be just the ticket 3 weeks before the Derby.
Ocellil also looked magnificent on the track and was in the thick of things late before packing it in.
Incredible bounce back by Incredibolt. The son of Bolt d’Oro did not have the smoothest trip but was able to blast the last furlong in 12 flat finishing in 1:47 3/5 . Looks like he was asking for more distance indeed.
Longshot Grittiness managed to fetch second in a photo with Confessional. The Repole’s maiden is validating the Remsen as a strong key race so far in the Derby trail.
I am glad for Riley Mott and his chances to shine in the Derby like his father did last year.
So happy for Riley and Incredibolt!
Nelson, no problem getting the 10f.
Yep, with that pedigree, no doubt. Screams classic distance. He’s got the RF a lot like Chrome did.
Colonial Downs must definitely be the fastest racetrack in America.
Look at these times for the last four mile races today:
Ezum breaks his maiden in 1:34 1/5
Tour Player wins the Royal New Kent Stakes in 1:33 2/5
Chasten and Eunomia win the two divisions of the Fasig-Tipton Sandy Bottom Stakes in 1:33 2/5 and 1:34 1/5 respectively.
And the Virginia Oaks was won by the very fast Bottle of Rouge in 1:41 2/5 for 1 1/6 mile (the 5th win of Flavien Prat today)…
Seems to me like the Virginia Derby will be run in 1:48 and change.
The top 3 morning-line favorites in the Virginia Derby (Buetane, Confessional, and High Camp) are fast horse that will benefit from the track bias.
Regardless, I am intrigued by the undefeated Lockstocknpharoah. His two performances show his grit and strong will to win. It would be his first time on dirt but his pedigree says he would cope
My Trifecta takes: 3-Epic Desire, 6-Lockstockpharoah, 7-Incredibolt, 8-Confessional, and 9-Ocelli
After the post parade I might be instead keying 6 or 8…
Safe trips and good luck to everybody!
Hopeful for Incredibolt or Ocellil in VA Derby.
Why, no reason other than both have young and upcoming trainers.
Wish I was there!
I like the far outside horse Clocker Special, in the Virginia Derby…he came back and ran huge, kept fighting …the ten post won’t be a problem, since it’s one turn ..he can sit and pounce, you never know if his comeback race took a lot out of him…but he is a fighter, he wants to win ..
As good a choice as mine. Good luck, Mathew.
The Virginia Derby has come up light, but I’ve decided to go with Confessional, a beautifully bred horse who has shown a little promise.
Good choice Ms Blacktype. I would say Confessional showed a lot of promise after winning his debut at Keeneland in 1:23 4/5 on October 16. So good was his debut that it made him the 3/4-favorite in his 3-year-old debut against Nearly.
I don’t know what happened to him in the Sam F. Davis but it is expected that the super fast track and bringing back the blinkers help him rebound.
BTW Confessional half sister, Eunomia, just won the Sandy Bottom Stakes at Colonial logging 1:33 4/5 for the mile. Good sign the family likes the track…
Thanks, Nelson. It seems like stakes horses come in bursts in families like this one.
Over analyzation???? Probably.
“The Chief” outworked Commandment 49.0 to 50.0 on Friday. At least timewise.
Do they meet up again in the Florida Derby in 2 weeks or go their separate ways?
I could very easily end up on “The Chief” come Derby Day. Two in a row for Mott/Alvarado? It could happen. They seem to have as good a chance as any in what I see as an 8-10 horse group of contenders.
Still waiting for a hero to rise from these streets. Hopefully, the 100-pointers will clear things up a bit.
I saw the video of Tiznow’s 29th birthday celebration, he looks fabulous! Still heavily muscled….moving well…
Ill be seeing him in 4 days.
Say hello for all of us!
Perhaps, Built who was on the Derby trail last year is going to be Whitmore2.0. He just broke the track record for six furlongs at the Fair Grounds which was set in 2002. He finished in 1:07.96.
So appreciative of all your research and commentary. Each time I watch the prep races I see one I just love! And I know they all can’t win. I was really impressed by The Puma and Caneletto. Last week. But them I’ve loved Paladin and Pavlovian from the get go.
I’m not a serious better just a lover of these beautiful horses. And I’ve learned so much from your articles. Glad you’ve kept Intrepido in the knocking at the door!
It’s really getting exciting now. Safe racing to all.
WH always is active during weeks with a Twinspires pool going on.
Here are the current top choices:
Paladin now 7-1
Chief W 8-1
Commandment 9-1
Renegade, Nearly, Silent Tactic 12-1
(I added a position in Renegade this week at 18-1; glad I did!)
Class President 14-1
Danon Bourbon added yesterday at 75-1; now 60-1
Isn’t ‘Danon’ a yogurt brand? Bourbon and yogurt doesn’t sound very appealing!😊
I don’t know, Biggy. I could learn to like it with the right flavorings.
ok, if you try, I will too! We could promote probiotic properties!
LOL.
Are you ready for this? In Derby Futures Pool 5, Cherokee Nation is listed as the favorite, at 9/5. What’s up with that?
Bill:
Interestingly enough, Cherokee Nation has moved all the way to 22-1 now at WH, from 9-1 a few days ago!
Thanks for that update, biggy312.
Obviously, it’s very early in the Pool 5 betting, and the odds reflected early on, will change significantly prior to the close of betting on Sunday, 3-15. I’ll be watching the odds on the four Into Mischief colts which have captured my interest, namely, Renegade, Commandment, Potente and Canaletto.
Good luck with your bets.
Thanks, Bill!
Good luck on your bets: hope you cash your Derby exactas!
If bb shows up with a horse thats only got 3 legs, he will be the favorite….his derby horses arent good enough this year…last his derby horses were better…
Every year you outdo yourself with the thoroughness of your research and analysis of the horses favored to run in the Kentucky Derby. I was quite impressed by Nearly in the Holy Bull as he was very professional, ran straight as an arrow, and was talented.
I am patiently waiting for the Florida Derby and looking forward to seeing Nearly run. After the Florida Derby, Johnny V will have to decide whether he rides Nearly or Class President in the Kentucky Derby. As he is a Hall of Fame jockey and knows both horses, we will see which horse he decides to ride in the Kentucky Derby; that horse will be my top pick.
I agree, Steve is in career-best form! With limited starts, we need this weekly listing more than ever—as well as concise comments, from Nelson and others….this is the best blog in the business ….
I’ll make a comment on the “Racing Nation” site, about a horse I like….and vultures pounce! Negative and nasty! THIS is the place, for intelligent discourse, winners are identified here…and much more ..
Right on, Mathew. That site has a low handicapping IQ all around…just a lot of trash talk and not much substance. The handicappers on this blog have far more knowledge than that one.
Agreed Dominic! The few brilliant individuals there often overshadowed by the village idiots.
Did you get kicked off because you were too brilliant or the other thing?
Thank you Terri
Does JV get to pick or does TP tell him who hes on?
It is understandable why assessing horses with one or two career starts feels like pure guesswork. They make handicapping difficult but it is more challenging writting about them every week.
You really want to know how they can navigate different adversities, how many gears they show while running by the rail, slipping between horses or going wide, how many high-caliber horses they have faced, how they handle different track conditions/biases, etc. You would certainly like to have enough information to draw reliable individual patterns or trends.
With those lightly raced horses you are basically predicting potential rather than measuring solid form cycles.
To me, a racehorse’s true identity as a Triple Crown contender begins to take shape during its 2-year-old season.
However, some horses I saw as promising 2-year-olds that, paraphrasing Steve, were the pretty faces I fell in love with, are not so charming now. A perceived familiarity has faded into disappointment.
For instance, the hope for the early dazzling speed of (Grade One winners) Brant and Napoleon Solo to enliven the Derby is now just wishful thinking.
Similarly, other early prospects last year like Talkin, Incredibolt, Cannoneer, Universe, Blackout Time, Litmus Test, and Liberty National have not been strong contenders at three.
It is simply a case of falling out of love with “familiar” faces and filling the void left by their letdown with the excitement of classy newcomers.
There are brilliant exceptions though.
So far, proven Stakes performers last year like Paladin, Renegade, Intrepido, Further Ado, Chip Honcho, and So Happy have continued to validate their top-class credentials.
Meanwhile, Chief Wallabee, The Puma, Canaletto, and Potente have shown that a missing 2-year-old foundation hasn’t affected their competitive edge. Whatever kept them off the track last year, it hasn’t stopped them from proving they can defeat any of the more experienced Derby hopefuls.
However, as we have repeated many times, winning the Derby with only three prior career starts is a tall order. Canaletto, Potente, Chief Wallabe, Iron Honor, and the fancied Emerging Market are all facing a monumental challenge.
Yes, Big Brown and Justify won the Derby with only 3 previous career starts but they were undefeated freaks, with speed not seen since and certainly not this year. Mage also did it after a masterful prep planning and training job by Gustavo Delgado.
We were spoiled by the reliability and consistency of Sovereignty, Journalism, and to some degree, by Baeza. They have also confirmed the new normal of 4 to 5 career starts pre-Derby.
On the other hand, there is an entire category of horses with no Stakes experience at two who went on to win eight consecutive Kentucky Derbies from 2017 to 2024.
Remarkably, five horses in this week’s ranking fall into that same profile -Class President, Nearly, Commandment, Reagan’s Honor, and Golden Tempo.
You can add to the list other ones named in various KotD segments: Fulleffort, Great White, Robusta, Talk to me Jimmy, Secured Freedom, Confessional, Lockstocknpharoah, and Clocker Special.
I hope we can get lucky and find the right one among those names.
Nelson:
Nice overview: lots of pertinent information…hoping to see at least one breakout performance in the upcoming 100 point to the winner preps
Thanks biggy.
I am curious about which truly frontrunners qualify. Currently I see Chip Honcho, Robusta, Buetane, Reagan’s Honor, and Talk to me Jimmy as some possible Derby pacesetters if they finally get enough points.
I don’t share the hype around Emerging Market making a breakthrough performance in the Louisiana Derby; but, as you said, there are many hopefuls training so well that a quantum leap would not be that shocking.
The Santa Anita Derby looks to feature some of those; and the Wood Memorial could bring some nice surprises as well.
As hinted by Steve, Chip Honcho worked his fifht consecutive 5 furlongs last Monday.
Chip Honcho logged the exact same time (1:02.20) as his previous breeze. The son of Connect (Curlin) looks ready to be the strongest fronrunner in the Louisiana Derby.
Talking about foundation, the hopefuls with the most career starts pre-Derby after adding their (likely) last preps, are:
Pavlovian (10) and Express Kid (7) both nominated to the Lousiana Derby where they will be behind Chip Honcho making the early pace.
Cherokee Nation (7),
Litmus Test (7),
Fulleffort (7),
Further Ado (6),
Chip Honcho (6)
It would be interesting to see how they do against less experienced runners in their last preps.
BTW the average career starts of the Derby winners since 2015 is 5.2 starts…
Great info, Nelson. We’ve come a long way since Real Quiet had 9 starts “as a 2 yo”. fir bb no less…9 starts is a career for two hotses in that barn…the derby was his 15th start…boy have things changed….
Thanks Dominic.
California Chrome with 10 starts before the Derby is a living memento of the “Iron Horses” of the distant past.
But the 28 races that Carry Back ran before the Derby is simply otherworldly. Running racehorses every week as long as they can is close to sacrilege in modern times.
Yes… him too.
Nelson, as I’m sure you are aware, Chrome won the Derby only 12 years ago! It wouldn’t be a bad thing at all if a horse with a good foundation took the roses this year. Horses with very few starts have won in recent years, but only one or two had careers worth talking about after the first Saturday in May. Since Chrome, only Mystik Dan and Mandaloun won a graded stakes at 4.
Yes Ms Blacktype. It was 12 years ago and there was only four (4) Derby winners running at 4 during that period. Mystik Dan did well winning the Blame Stakes and the Lukas Classic in his last start. Mandaloun was pointed to the Saudi Cup after winning the Louisiana Stakes.
The other two (Always Dreaming and Rich Strike) ran two and just once respectively.
It will be very exciting to watch Sovereignty running this season.
Was there for Derby, Ms. Blacktype. Just illustrates what a small barn can do…… if given the chance.
I saw Serena’s Song on March 2, 1996, in the Santa Anita Handicap…I think she was #14…..she finished a distant 7th, after fighting for the early lead, that small filly would run in 12 more races, in 9 different tracks…that year,call against top level fillies…and males, Serena’s Song faced them all and was.right there most of the time …
…and then she would be a broodmares….for decades….
…and then a decade of retirement to her pasture …
Prior to Potente’s win in the Robert B. Lewis, I posted a comment stating that he could be the best 3yr. old colt in the Baffert barn. After receiving that 2 1/4 Thoro-Graph number for his winning effort in the RBL, I’m convinced more than ever that Potente is Baffert’s best prospect on the Derby trail. Next up is the Santa Anita Derby for this Into Mischief colt. Currently, Renegade is at the top of my Derby Watch list, followed by Potente, at #2. If in fact Potente goes on to win the SA Derby, I’ll probably flip flop those two and move Potente up to #1.
In Derby Futures Pool 5, I’ll key Potente on top, with ALL, underneath in a $4.00 exacta wager. In addition, I’ll key Renegade on top, with ALL, underneath in a $4.00 exacta wager.
EDIT: Prior to Potente’s win in the San Felipe.
Serena’s Song passed away of natural causes at the age of 34 yesterday. What a wonderful mare, both on the track and the breeding shed. My thanks and sympathy to all the folks at Denali Stud, who must be heart broken now that she is gone. May she rest in peace.
Sad day regarding her passing. Saw her several years ago.
Hi Steve. LONG time fan. Read and enjoy all your work. Very interested in
Potente so far this season. Would you kindly tell me his Thorograph pattern?
Thanks John. Its pretty darn good. 7…2 1/4
Thanks for posting that Steve. Some of us are making notes — although I intend to buy the Thorograph figs for the Derby field again if they don’t up the price from $25.
I respect the Thoro-Graph numbers and Steve Haskin’s point that while Commandment is improving with those numbers, the amount of improvement is decreasing. I am too cheap to buy the Thoro-Graphs and I appreciate when Mr. Haskin tells us what they are.
Commandment’s BSFs show a terrific rising pattern: 81, 91, & 101. That 101 puts him among the highest on the Trail. Win or lose, if Commandment improves even a little bit again in the Florida Derby, he will be primed to run what I see as a normal Derby year BSF on the first Saturday in May.
A few years ago, I got into a cyber-argument with The Kentucky Vet about what numbers you can expect in the KD. The Vet felt that my expectations were too low. But when I say a normal year, I mean a year without a super horse like Sovereignty. I don’t think that there are any horses like Sovereignty on this year’s Derby Trail. Maybe I’m wrong. Maybe not. A 102 or even a 103 BSF in Florida would get me excited.
I wouldn’t even mind if Commandment gets beat at Gulfstream as long as he improves. Don’t squeeze all the juice out of the lemon. He has his points. Just like Sovereignty last year. When he let Tapan Street have his fun in the Florida sun.
If I remember correctly, California Chrome only ran a 98 BSF in his Derby win.
A 104 to 106 might get the job done this year. Commandment could be in range.
Commandment got a lower Thoro-graph numbers because of hia ground saving trip. Chief Wallabee didnt show a lot of improvement off his maiden win.
I would not say I am “gaga”, over Potente…but there are reasons I like him as a wager. Angles…I don’t always wager on the horse that I think is going to win…I wager on the horse that I think gives me the most “bang for my buck”…that is…the horse with the best odds…
In the early 90s..I lived in Oregon….so
me Derbys were restricted to Oregon only pools, and the West coast horses got heavily bet down, so I would look for Eastern based contenders—at an off track site someone put a mic in my face, asking me to go through the Derby Field…I identified Strike the Gold as my pick to win, and he did win…but I BET on Devil His Due, for the better price …that was a mistake…but a couple years later I got 31-1 on Sea Hero (he was 12-1 at Churchill) and he paid $65 in Oregon, I look for things like this…and that’s what I like about Potente …there’s buzz, about Cherokee Nation, who ran a terrific race, after floundering, time and again, even getting beat by Robusta….IF Cherokee Nation runs the same dominant race, in his stakes debut—he will be the FAVORITE—perhaps he will be a good futures wager this weekend, in case he’s all that….I like several horses this year, it’s still early…Nearly and Potente are at the top of my wagering list, both are getting a bit lost, in the shuffle, that’s fine by me, actually preferred, by me….
I hope youre not going to be disappointed in his odds. Not sure what you’re expecting, but he may be shorter than you think. He has been getting some buzz and his Thoro-Graph number in the San Felipe was very fast.
I’m thinking if he doesn’t win his final prep…or he doesn’t win by much, with a lower Beyer than most … he’s 12-1, in a contentious field …
It reminds me of how simulcasting was early on…in 2000 I bet on Tiznow WP and keyed him in the tri…..in those days like in your example you could shop around….I bet Tiznow through the live feed from that track…trifectvpays over a grand…if yo bet through the Suffold Downs feed your trifecta only paid 700 n change due to the McCarron factor as he was born in Dorchester…the suffolk bettors were all in on McCarron again, and oncecagain the tri i hitbthrough the churchill pool paid almost 1100 dollars…SUF only 800 n change….its too bad they took that angle away….
So Happy Sat a garden trip…I think he won’t go on….but I’m not sure yet, about Secured Freedom, who took up on the inside, down the backstretch, then was one paced through the stretch—,Secured Freedom is enormous, in size, looks like an older horse that needs a diet! With Brant out of the SA Derby, and likely softer early fractions ….it wouldn’t surprise me if Team Yakteen seeks the early lead….
The Puma wins one prep – gets a higher ranking than Cherokee Nation, who just broke maiden.
Silent Tactic wins one prep, but places in two others, and gets less respect … I think that is incorrect.
ST is a very good horse.
I have already started with my slow week reevaluation and have already made changes with him based on certain factors. Not quite sure yet exactly where he will be ranked based on these factors but it will be substantially higher than he is now.
Really enjoyed your 2nd PTW discussion; lots of pertinent information on the Derby contenders.
Will you be doing more prior to the Derby
That was funny: barking dog definitely a Nearly fan!!
Thanks very much. Ill definitely do one during an/or after the big preps.
Unbelievable!
In race #8, at Tampa Bay Downs, I keyed the two favorites, on top, in the first two slots, with three longshots underneath in the 3rd, 4th and 5th slots in a Super Hi-5 wager. That wager cost $12.00. I hit the Super Hi-5 for $1392.27. NICE!
Now, I can place a few wagers in Derby Futures Pool 5, with house money.
Edit: Correction, that Hi-5 paid, $1384.30
Congrats Bill. You were one of the six (6) people hitting the Hi-5.
When you take into account that the first or second betting choices win from 55% to 60% of the time your betting strategy would become profitable on the long run.
In fact, today at Tampa the first or second choice won in all the nine races.
In race 3 with only 7 runners the 3/5-favorite wins and the Hi-5 paid $1,872.
in the fourth race the 8/5-favorite wins with the third betting choice in second and the Hi-5 paid $2,747.
Many handicappers reject to bet odds-on favorites but they should also recognize that the exotics become easier to hit with the right betting strategy.
Thanks, Nelson
Just dumb luck on my part. 🙂
I doubt that, Bill. You wouldn’t continue to hit these big pots if you hadn’t learned a thing or two over your betting career. Congratulations!
Thanks, Ms Blacktype.
I definitely good got lucky using those longshots in my Hi-5 wager.
Beautiful!….
There appears to be many evenly matched horses in this years Kentucky Derby.
We still have some prep races to watch.
At this juncture I like
Nearly
Commandment
Palladin
Chief Wallabee
It appears that lightly raced horses running in the Derby will be the norm going forward. This makes handicapping that much more difficult.
For me, the pageantry & nostalgia of the Derby has lost its luster.
It just feels like its all about the gambling side of horse racing.
The days of Northern Dancer vs Hill Rise, Secretariat vs Sham, Sunday Silence vs Easy Goer, Affirmed vs Alydar are over. There are many more examples of rivalries as well.
It is probably the best betting race of the year. Heck, the favorite in this years edition could be 6-1 or 7-1.
Great read Steve, I have been following every week . You provide so much provocative & insightful information every week.
Thank you for providing a forum for us readers & handicappers.
For me I feel the opposite the incredible story lines going into the Kentucky derby live on ! This has got to be one of the greatest years in recent memory with so many having a chance for greatness ! Thanks Steve for only making the march to the derby more fun !!🐎 just last year Steve’s co picks journalism and sovereignty running one two and then journalism’s Preakness and the two of them running one two again in the Belmont with Baeza 3rd was equal to some of the great rivalries in the past. Sadly the past is over but the future of the Kentucky derby is as exciting as ever !
I don’t know who’s best suited to win this year’s Kentucky Derby, but the race Canaletto ran in the Tampa Bay Derby has me thinking that when 2026 is all said and done for, he’s the one we’re all going to be talking about. His loss was 100% because of post position. I knew he was talented, but it was his gameness that impressed in defeat. I agree with you that Paladin is the pro-tem 3yo leader, but I love me some Canaletto. Great early March write-up, Mr. Haskin…
Thank you. As I said I feel I have him too low. But as Derby horses they are ao lightly raced. I just couldn’t decide where to rank him. He should be closer to Chief Wallabee. Its something I just have to reevaluate.
For a 50-point Derby prep race, the Virigina Derby field appears to be relatively weak vs other Derby prep races. At 5/2, Buetane is listed as the opening line favorite, followed by Confessional at 4-1 and High Court at 9/2. I’m giving Lockstocknpharoah a hard look, at 5-1. Undefeated in two career starts, his last out Equibase speed figure is the highest in the field. That said, I’ll wheel Buetane and Lockstocknpharoah on top, in the first two slots, with High Camp, Incredibolt, Confessional and Clocker Special underneath in the 3rd and 4th slots. That is: 1,6/ 1,6/ 5,7,8,10/ 5,7,8,10 ($1.00 superfecta).
In an additional super wager, I’ll flip that over, and use 5,7,8,10 on top, in the first slot, with 1,6 in the 2nd and 3rd slots, followed by 5,7,8,10 in the 4th slot.
That is: 5,7,8,10/ 1,6/ 1,6/ 5,7,8,10.
Safe trips to all.
I also see the Virginia Derby as weak. It should probably be a 20-pointer.
Now that I’ve had the chance to reread the Rankings while going over the future wager PPs, I can say that I’m in almost complete agreement about the Top 10 here with the final preps remaining. Almost. The one I don’t see in that group is Cherokee Nation. I kinda feel bad about adding to the comments just below, but not bad enough to stop myself.
There’s no doubt that CN put up big numbers in his last seemingly across the figure-making spectrum. But we have seen horses with big numbers against maidens disappoint when going against winners. And the group that CN beat was not much to write home about. His previous good maiden races were also at one mile. After each one, he was thrown into graded preps in November and February. He finished distant 5ths in both. Ranking him at this time ahead of accomplished runners Silent Tactic and Further Ado seems premature.
Thanks for all the great analysis every week. I learn a lot here.
I was going by what Baffert has been saying about him all year. Its all or nothing with him. It wouldn’t surprise me if turned into something special and it wouldn’t surprise ne if he was a sucker horse. Trying to keep him in the .middle of road for now but we’ll know if he belongs higher or lower. Whatever I decide it will be a guess
Yeah, I get it. I can imagine the difficulty when faced with no standouts. Lots of good ones for sure. As you said, there’s so little to evaluate it’s just educated guesswork.
Cherokee Nation must be getting bet at William Hill. He was 20-1, now 9-1, same as Commandment and Chief Wallabee…
Hi Biggy. I’m not sold on Cherokee National just yet. Too many handicappers look at his 100 BSF in his last race and are all over him. Let’s see how he does in a quality big SA Derby field where he will need a 1-2 finish to get into the Derby. I’m high on my 2 KDFW horses Palidan with his 93BSF and Class President with his 91 BSF. The 1 1/4 is the great seperator in the KD. Save the 100 point BSF For the KY Derby.
Hi Joe:
I agree I would not bet Cherokee at 9-1 current odds
Is SA Derby field going to be a big one?
I am high on your 2 futures horses too: I have CP in my futures and will definitely be hedging on Paladin on Derby day…
Steve, can you find out where Romeo is, if he’s even still alive? He’s had 3 works since the Hopeful, none since October…so he’s either injured, retired or dead
I don’t know if he’s still with Asmussen if he’s not dead or retired – there’s just been a black hole of information on him
Thank you!!!
I asked Scott Blasi the last time you asked me and he never answered.
Oh, thank you so much!!
😬😬😬
Thanks for asking. I think we know what silence might mean.
Sov, have you heard anything lately regarding him?
Today, horse racing analyst, Brian Zipse, posted several positive comments on Renegade’s path moving forward on this year’s Derby trail.
The opening odds in Derby Futures Pool 5 were released today, which included several bombers that look enticing, IMO.
So Happy, 90-1
Chip Honcho, 50-1
Robusta, 40-1
Golden Tempo, 30-1
Canaletto, 30-1
Class President, 20-1
Silent Tactic, 20-1
The Puma, 25-1
I’ll key Renegade, at 20-1, on top, with all of the above underneath in, in a $4.00 dollar Exacta wager.
Bill, I like to play some Kentucky Derby Futures, but you are willing to dive into every pool with Gusto.
So, are you saying this is bad, or this is good?
Keep in mind that it’s my money.
Have a good day, Derbyologist.
I think Derbyologist was admiring your bravado. As am I.
Chalton
Thanks for the input.
At first glance, I thought Derbyologist was getting on my case for having some many Futures wagers. I neglected to address the meaning of “with gusto”, (enthusiasm, energy and eagerness).
Many thanks for drawing that to my attention.
Good luck.
Derbyologist, enjoy your comments. Your knowledge shines through without being cavalier.
Derbyolgist
I owe you an apology for my curt reply to your message, that I posted yesterday.
I failed to address the meaning of “with Gusto”, (enthusiasm, energy and eagerness). Please excuse.
Thanks, Derbyologist.
Looks like Boyd is off the trail, no work since 2/28, and not listed in KDFW #5.
But anytime you can spend 1 million to win the Ed Brown Stakes, you have to do it.
That’s pretty funny!
I’m just curious why you chose to use that name.
That was great!!
Hilarious!
Really look forward to this article every week. I have a couple of questions. Do you put anything into that Cherokee Nation and Reagans Honor got their big number with Lasix. And I know Litmus Test last 3 workouts were half miles but how can he be a short horse after working 8 times after his last race? I know those half miles weren’t Baffert like but I doubt he was not fit enough. I know the race got him more fit I doubt Baffert would ship a short horse for a Derby prep. Thanks again for the Derby Doings.
Yes ive mentioned the Lasix question and it is a question. Baffert says it won’t.make a difference, but who really knows. Most good horses run just as well without it. I can only assume it won’t affect their performance until it does. It sure didnt affect Chief Wallabee and Canaletto. As for Litmus Test, all year he has been Bafferts big Derby horse and his “only” Derby horse. There were only two possibilities why he tired and didnt put up a fight. Either he was short and needed the race or he’s really not that good a horse. I decided to give both of them the benefit of the doubt and use the excuse rather than Baffert’s misjudgment of him.
Thanks for the reply. Love the wealth of information you put out.
Thank you John.
I’ve yet to come up with anyone I’ve liked from one race to the next. If I can paraphrase my favorite comment of yours regarding Litmus Test…I’ve got too many horses to put into a bet.
Hi everyone:
I’ve been reading Steve’s weekly Derby piece in Secretariat for a couple of weeks now, but haven’t had time to comment on the confusing situation this year until now. Every week I change my mind as to whom to put on top. Paladin looks like a winner for sure, but there are others I like better. I will try to wait until the last Derby prep to see the final furlong times as I always gravitate to the fastest late mover. Who is that going to be? Right now in my eye, if the trip is better than last out The Puma may get my vote.
Maybe this Derby trail should be called “Love With an IMproper Stranger” because there’s a different one every week. I haven’t revised my list for two weeks because nothing that has happened makes much sense and I wouldn’t know which ones to add. I don’t have any problem waiting, though. I’m not into early wagering, and I learned from Forte that even 24 hours before the race is too soon to be confident that you’ve got it all together. I’ll let time sort out some of the Derby picture, but right now I like Commandment and Further Ado, whom I forgive for finishing second in his first race since last year. I still think he has the ability, and I expect he’ll improve off that race.
I simply just prefer horses with real stakes experience and think that should be a criteria before being ranked.
While we have a bit of time before the 100 point to the winner races, here are the current top futures odds. There are 13 horses at 22-1 and under, including 5 horses at 20-1.
Paladin 8-1
Commandment, Chief W 9-1
Nearly 10-1
Silent Tactic 12-1
Class President 14-1
Renegade 18-1
Potente, The Puma, Golden Tempo, Cherokee Nation, Iron Honor 20-1
Boyd 22-1
All other individual horses are 28-1 or higher…
Here is what I currently have in futures:
Commandment can win $3,045 my odds 30-1
Chief Wallabee $1,250 (50-1)
Silent Tactic $2,600 (55-1)
Class President $5,260 (105-1)
Iron Honor $1,650 (75-1)
Golden Tempo $3,620 (33-1)
Reagan’s Honor $4,207 (55-1)
Blackout Time $7,220 (42-1) hoping he can finish in the money in Arkansas Derby
Total wagered: $951…probably close to done at this point….depending on how future prep races go, I might hedge with Paladin and Renegade…
Steve: thanks a lot for all of the comprehensive information: it adds so much to the Derby trail, especially your Thoro-Graph insights. Last year it led right to Sovereignty, and I am going to pay close attention to who should be peaking on May 2nd
This year’s derby field might turn out to be the most inexperienced ever by a mile…and a quarter. Correction: not “might.” WILL.
It is what it is.
Thanks for the overview of the Virginia Derby in the KOTD segment.
I am bullish on Potente….Bob liked him early on, he had “buzz”, about him, and it looks like he is “in” on points….
His debut performance was what they call “better than looked”, because he was always under pressure, and he turned back the pressure …Bob puts his trainers in “small races”, so to speak, by race #2…his first two-turn race—Potente overcame a crowded trip, vs winners…and he came with a strong kick….
My brother used his VCR to amp up the replay speed a notch, he liked how doing so would accentuate the strength of the kicks, and Potente really did kick strong, inside the final sixteenth, as well as the gallop out—
89 Beyer…after a not exactly earth-shaking debut…means Potente won’t be an overplayed/over bet horse, come Derby time… ESPECIALLY if he just finishes well, in his final prep, remember it’s NOT the big prize, YET—and the horse is already “in”….
Lots to like about Potente, odds wise…I did say his trainer liked him early on..
All good points, Mathew W
Currently, I have Potente 2nd on my Derby Watch List, right behind Renegade.
Both of these Into Mischief colts look very strong moving forward, IMO.
Derby Futures Pool 5 opens up this week (March 13th) and closes on March 15th.
It will be interesting to see the opening odds. I’ll be looking for a few bombers to use in a few exacta wagers.
I am not. He barely got his nose down in front of a very long shot horse, and was in no way dominating in that prep. He shall have to show more ability for me to change my mind.
The Derby is 3/16 of a mile longer….but I am satisfied he will fetch a good price, based on his barely winning both races….he was three in front of So Happy and Secured Freedom, his time was pretty good…and he’s a big boy….Bob likes him and so do I….mostly I like his price….
Potente was starting his stretch drive, and Robusta bore out, and JJ briefly looked inside, before Robusta came in sharply….Potente took time, for his drive, but.he stormed home, and was 20 lengths clear at the clubhouse turn he was moving ..
They don’t give awards for the gallop out and it doesn’t win races, but okay. Maybe the jockey just wasn’t smart enough to save something for the target race? I think you are grasping for excuses regarding why Potente didn’t convincingly beat Robusto, rather than barely getting his nose down.
No I get ya—except I haven’t any excuses, he won both races…and he was booking, late, last Saturday…1:42 4/5 seems respectable, this is a contentious year but it does not look like a strong crop, to me…and Potente is “in”…with two months….and Bob …clear weather…likely decent odds, there are angles to like, about him….
I think the 10f capabilities of both Secured Freedom and So Happy are still very much questionable at this point, so I don’t think that proves a whole lot in regards to the Derby.
Interested if So Happy can get the distance.
It seems that one year we might have a fourth maiden winner of the Derby. Some colt could accumulate enough points from seconds and thirds to make the race, and surprise! Will need a “B” in his name though, as the only others to have done so are Buchanan in 1884, Sir Barton in 1919, and Broker’s Tip in 1933. Could even join Sir Barton as a Triple Crown winner . . .
It’s so weird.
Sometimes I think it would be quicker and simpler just to draw a name out of s box😆
I do like Chief Wallabee though.
What happened to Brant?
Was expecting a better performance.
He seems to be a miler at best.
Another great column, Steve. I too loved the line about Cherokee Nation going from a flunking biology student to the discover of DNA. And many thanks for posting so early today—I had an hour to kill at the airport and the rankings filled the time beautifully.
That is a funny line! All I can think is, ” Is that what they call it these days?”
Hi Steve
Thank you providing another in-depth analysis on your top Derby prospects.
It seems like it was just the other day that your Week 1 Derby Rankings was posted.
It was good to see four Into Mischief colts listed in your top 15, this week. Of the four, I believe Renegade has the best pedigree to excel at the Classic distance. His dam side is all class and stamina, with the likes of Curlin, as his dam’s sire, and Bernardini as the sire of his 2nd dam.
Potente looked super impressive, rating off a fast pace to run down longshot Robusta in the San Felipe. Hopefully, he can replicate that same performance in the Santa Anita Derby.
Commandment has a lot to like on the dam side of his pedigree as well. His dam, Sippican Harbor was a Grade 1 winner, and her sire, Orb, won the Derby. And, as you mentioned, his gallop out, is amazing.
Canaletto, coming off a maiden win, looked very impressive in the Tampa Bay Derby.
It will be interesting to see where Chad Brown will point Canaletto for his next start.
Thanks for all you do, it’s very much appreciated.
Nearly has a beautiful pedigree; that Rasmussen Factor on the tail of his pedigree puts him on the top of my list. I do glance at thorough graph numbers, but the Kentucky Derby is a new game at 10f. What we have here is speed on top (Not This Time) and the Rasmussen Factor on the bottom (Weekend Surprise by Secretariat out of Lassie Dear by Buckpasser). It doesn’t get any better than this combination of speed and stamina.
Thanks for the reply, Mary.
With all due respect, I’ll stand by my statement that Renegade has the best pedigree for the Classic distance, on this year’s Derby trail. From my perspective Renegade’s mares are much stronger on his dam side, vs those of Nearly. Bernardini has turned out to be one of the best broodmare sires out there, IMO.
With respect to class and stamina, on the dam side, I would rate Renegade’s dam sire, Curlin, much higher than Nearly’s dam sire, Mineshaft. Just my opinion, Mary.
I appreciate your perspective, Bill. I stand firm on my analysis of Nearly.
I remember when Bernardini won the Preakness Stakes in 2006. Barbaro was the favorite to win that race after winning the Kentucky Derby. Barbaro sustained a life-threatening injury shortly after coming out of the gate. Actually, he broke through the gate and had to be reloaded. Bernardini went on to win the race, but he didn’t receive the accolades he very much deserved. After a battle with laminitis, Barbaro was euthanized the following January.
I’ll never forget the battle of the sexes between Curlin and the filly, Rags to Riches in the 2007 Belmont Stakes. It was very close, but for the first time in over 100 years, the filly won by a nose.
Good luck on your wagers; I hope you make a lot of money.
Thanks for the reply, Mary
Good luck to you as well.
Mary, both Chief Wallabee and The Puma, which I cashed for $1400 will have no problem getting 10F.
Mike R,
I agree.
Good luck, Mike. All of the horses will get the 10f, but winning the race is another matter. I am just trying to be funny.
And pedigree alone does not guarantee success or stamina.
I spotted an article on both DRF and HRN that says they will be offering a new wager at Turfway called an “Octafecta”. It will be offered once a day in a race with at least 10 horses entered. That’s right. You have to pick the first 8 horses in order. Wait! It gets better. It will be a $1 bet. It will also be a “Jackpot Bet”. Of course it will.
The “Octafecta” will carry over to other Churchill tracks. You just know that they will offer it on the Derby. Oh, boy!
How much would a 10-horse $1 Octafecta box cost? Forget it. I don’t even want to know. You know the old saying: If you have to ask, you can’t afford it.
Cherokee Nation: ” Baffert said he finally figured it out. That’s like saying a student who was struggling with biology finally figured it out and immediately discovered the structure of DNA.”
Hilarious! Thanks for the big laugh.
Thank you Mike. So glad you liked it. I try to slip one of those in occasionally and hope someone notices and gets a kick out of it.
Litmus Test: “Just don’t ask me where he’s running next.”
I swear, that is exactly what I’ve been wondering. But I won’t ask. BB will let us know soon enough. Not that I love him that much for the Derby, but I think his run in The Rebel was a complete throw out. Other than giving him a great tightener.
I’m starting to warm up to Renegade. Especially, since he skipped the Tampa Bay Derby and is being pointed to face stiffer competition. I’ll add him to my list of horses that I’m keeping an eye on. Commandment, Litmus Test, Renegade, and “The Chief”.
Not in love with any of them. It could down to picking a horse just because I enjoy calling him “The Chief”.
I’ve been thinking that this year’s Derby could setup for one of BB’s quicksters that go to the lead and just keep going. Buetane is fast. But I don’t like him at all. Not for the Derby.
Another thing that I’ve been thinking about is that in a race where so many horses look pretty equal in talent, it could set up for a crazy longshot with a whopping payoff. I’m talking a Rich Strike kind of payout.
Better than calling him Wallabee.. im not sure there will be any crazy longshots in the Derby. There are too many that look good and not great.
Was Chief Wallabee in the Cherokee Nation..
I hear he is still at Oaklawn ..
Steve – Paladin has had a couple of works at Payson and seems to be progressing well in his next start the Bluegrass. He will be the only horse to have run in 3 1 1/8 Mile races leading up to the derby. My other KDFW horse is Class President , who also could be targetting the Bluegrass. I’m glad that Paladin and CP are likely in with points because the Bluegrass could be loaded with talent. I’d Love to see Paladin and CP finish 1-2 in the Bluegrass and 1-2 in the KY Derby. Great recap of the contenders Steve.
Mr. Haskin, thanks for the time you place into composing the lists,as well for year round. You’re the best!
Thank you Mike.
A nice little surprise with this early edition from you! Had to run out a get a fresh bagel so I can do my usual enjoying the read. The Derby is (like the framed cartoon from the 92 Derby DRF program on my wall) says. The sweetest 2 minutes in sports and your both chef and ingredients that make it that! Thanks Steve!
LOL Thanks Derek. Everything?
Yes , Everything with homemade Bacon, scallion, horseradish cream cheese!
Steve, great stuff.
Any plans of writing a couple of backstories about a few of the “top” contenders?
Yes after the final preps in April. If I write any backstories in the Rankings or KOTD not many seem that interested. Its more about Rankings and future odds and wagers. I can only do one column a week so the backstories have to wait until the Rankings are done.
Fair enough. Thanks for the reply.
Great stuff, Steve!!! Thanks!
I think Reagan should be fine given he’s going to have over a month between his last and the Blue Grass. As my friend and I have discussed, we love how Cherie is handling him – no dithering about where to run.
He could run extremely well in the BG and still not make the Derby, but we’ll see
Class is the big test, but I feel he’ll pass – and jr looked very good working with GT, as you said
I meant to ask – the work was very good for both, but do you take anything from the fact that RH didn’t pass? Of course he was on the outside, so he was wider….
I dont take anything from that. Golden Tempo worked super with blinkers and was doing it easily, but both horses looked great. And the inside horse has an advantage on the gallop out.
Thanks, Steve!
I like GT too as I love Bernardini – and he’s an awesome BMS
But, my heart is with Reagan’s Honor
I’m stoked about the BG!
It all depends on where the 3 Tampa horses go. Canaletto won’t run against Paladin but Further Ado and The Puma could go there. That would make it a tough race. If I was just looking for points to get in the Derby the Wood should be an easier spot.
A nice surprise waking up to the weekly update from you this AM Steve. Great job as always. Lots of horses to mention, so I can understand why Emerging Market was left off this week. Do you still expect him (and Brad Cox’s Easterly) to be in the LA derby in 2 weeks? Appreciate the insight as always.
I am going to be away for the Louisiana Derby and with nothing to write about next week I am planning to write a lot about the LA. Derby. I dont consider Emerging Market a Derby horse off only 2 lifetime starts. But he did work so I added a graph about him.
Sounds good. Thank you.