2026 Kentucky Derby Rankings – Week 9
Well, the last slow weekend has passed, and now it is all about 100-point preps and sorting everything out. Please note that due to travel, next week’s Rankings will be late and with just brief comments, as we will not even begin writing them and analyzing the Louisiana Derby and Jeff Ruby Steaks until late Sunday. ~ Steve Haskin
Derby Rankings: March 16, 2026 – Week 9
By Steve Haskin
1. Paladin (Chad Brown, Gun Runner — Secret Sigh, by Tapit)
The big news this week concerning this horse is, thanks to Jon Stettin from Past The Wire who spoke to co-owner Peter Brant at Tampa Bay Downs, it is official: Paladin the horse is indeed named after the TV Western character played by Richard Boone in “Have Gun Will Travel.” You oldtimers remember, “Paladin, Paladin, where do you roam? Paladin, Paladin, far far from home.” If you haven’t guessed by now, there isn’t too much to report other than his latest work in the usual :49 4/5. Let’s then look ahead to his final prep, the Blue Grass Stakes on April 4. By nailing down those 50 points from the Risen Star Stakes added to the 10 points from his Remsen victory, he is already in the Derby and, unlike many others having only two starts this year, he doesn’t need to run his eyeballs out, as they say, in a must-win race. That gives Brown the luxury of using the race as a prep, which is what it is, and just make sure it sets him up for a peak performance in the Derby. It was similar last year when Sovereignty won the Fountain of Youth and didn’t need to win the Florida Derby. By finishing a fast-closing second to a horse that did need to win, it served as a perfect prep without taking too much out of him. So, hopefully Paladin won’t be blowing as hard after the Blue Grass as I will be when I blow out my birthday candles a few hours later.
2. Renegade (Todd Pletcher, Into Mischief — Spice is Nice, by Curlin)
If you missed last week’s Rankings, I don’t believe I’ll be making a better case than that for him being a serious Derby cointender until he proves it himself in the Arkansas Derby. Pletcher, as usual, gave him plenty of time after his impressive victory in the Sam F. Davis Stakes over The Puma. As we mentioned, he has done something positive in each of his last three races — finishing ahead of Paladin in one race, getting a faster Thoro-Graph number than Paladin in another race, and being the last horse to win a Derby prep by more than one length in his last race, while easily defeating the subsquent winner of the Tampa Bay Derby. With 25 points, all he has to do in the Arkansas Derby is finish third to pretty much assure a starting berth in the Derby or finish second or better to become one of the favorites. To accomplish that he will have to beat several classy horses with a race over the track and would need a solid enough pace to duplicate the powerful run he made in the Sam F. Davis. What is most encouraging about him is that he seemed to have a much quicker turn of foot at Tampa than he did in the Remsen when it took him a little too long to get in full gear and let Paladin get the jump on him. From a speed ratings standout, he should make a good forward move after pairing up career-best “5’s,” but it will have to be a move of several points to show that he has the speed to win the Derby and that he is improving at the rate he needs to be.
3. Chief Wallabee (Bill Mott, Constitution – A la Lucie, by Medaglia d’Oro)
The Florida Derby could be a doozy if Nearly, Commandment, and The Puma all go, but that is in question. Chief Wallabee’s “3” Thoro-Graph number in the Fountain of Youth is actually faster than the number of all three of those horses in their last start. Looking at his other speed ratings, they are pretty much flawless. Yes, he boasts a 103 Beyer and a 104 Brisnet figure in the Fountain of Youth, but what is most impressive is that the 104 came off a 91 early pace figure and a 98 middle pace figure. Add that to his 88-91-100 early, middle, and late figures in his career debut and it is seems obvious that this colt can maintain a high cruising speed throughout the entire race and still finish strongly. That makes him an extremely tough opponent who is not pace dependent and can run you off your feet every step of the way. And he is only going to keep improving. If you’re looking for a good side story, he is closely inbred 3 x 4 to Distorted Humor, who was WinStar Farm’s very first stallion. Kenny Trout and Bill Casner had purchased the 450-acre Prestonwood Farm in 2000, naming it WinStar Farm. Included with the purchase was Prestonwood’s young stallion Distorted Humor, who put the new farm on the map in 2003 when his son Funny Cide won the Kentucky and Preakness. Distorted Humor, who would go on to sire 174 black-type winners and 76 graded stakes winners, died this past January at the age of 33. He could leave one heckuva legacy this year.
4. Commandment (Brad Cox, Into Mischief — Sippican Harbor, by Orb)
Considering his Brisnet figures in the Fountain of Youth are the same as Chief Wallabee’s other than a faster early pace figure of 92, as are his last two Beyers, I have to keep them just as close in the Rankings. He does need to get a bit faster in the Thoro-Graph numbers, receiving a slower number than Chief Wallabee despite beating him, but a good part of that is the fact that he had a ground-saving trip in which the rail opened wide for him. But there are so many elements to this colt that you won’t find in the past performances and speed ratings. First off, good luck trying to run with him on the gallop-out after a race. We saw how he re-engaged while galloping out together with Chief Wallabee, pinning his ears and pulling away. And this was after he had the audacity to throw his ears up right before the wire as Chief Wallabee was struggling to pass him, as if saying, “You’re gonna have to do better than that to get by me.” In the Mucho Man Stakes, he might very well have lapped the field had they not pulled him up. Coming back, he was just bouncing along like he was returning from a gallop. In his maiden victory he really showed what he’s made of by not only going through a hole that wasn’t there, he bounced off the two horses on either side of him like a three-cushion billiard shot, shoving each horse out of his way and knocking them a good foot to the inside and outside. How can you not love a colt who loves being a racehorse as much as he obviously does?
5. Nearly (Todd Pletcher, Not This Time — Ib Prospector, by Mineshaft)
Unlike Chief Wallabee, his inner speed figures are a bit all over the place, as he can run the proverbial hole in the wind at different times during the race, depending on how fast or slow the pace is. We really don’t have a large enough body of work yet to define him, so we’ll go by his last two races, in which he ran blazing Brisnet early and middle speed figures of 109 and 117, but crawled home with a 78 late pace figure. In his brilliant allowance victory that preceded it, he ran 83 early and middle pace figures, which allowed him to fly home with a 110 late pace figure. That inconsistency within the running of those races may have contributed to his Thoro-Graph numbers going from spectacular “negative-1” in the allowance race to a “5,” in the Holy Bull. So he is going to have to put all his strengths together in one race if he is going to beat Chief Wallabee and other good horses the Florida Derby off a two-month layoff. With that said, the mechanics of his stride are flawless and there is no wasted action. In his allowance win he had only three opponents, but you cannot ask a horse to run any smoother and straighter down the stretch. He did take the turn into the stretch of the Holy Bull wider than you’d like to see, and I would want him to cut the corner a lot tighter in the Florida Derby. With his combination of speed and efficiency, if he can put everything together into one package he could be something very special.
6. The Puma (Gustavo Delgado, Essential Quality — Eve of War, by Declaration of War)
I have a homework assignment for everyone. Watch the replay of the Tampa Bay Derby and remember where The Puma is down the backstretch, then watch him circle the field on the far turn, about five-wide, and blow by horses to reach the leaders turning for home on the far outside and keep the lead all the way to the wire. Once you have that race ingrained in your brain, go to YouTube or wherever you view old races and watch the 2023 Florida Derby. The owners and trainer of The Puma had a horse in that race named Mage. Now watch where Mage is down the backstretch and what he does on the far turn, and where he is turning for home and down the stretch. Other than Mage just getting nipped on the wire by Forte, the similarities between both these race are uncanny. While you’re at it, watch the head-ons of their races and notice how both colts have the same tendency to kick out their left leg; The Puma a bit more noticeable than Mage. I realize this has nothing to do with handicapping, so I will leave you some semblance of useful information. The Puma, after starting his career with a sharp “4 1/2” Thoro-Graph number, “bounced” to an “8” in the Sam F. Davis Stakes with a traffic-filled trip. But he was able to rebound to a “4” over a track that likely had been slowed down by a heavy downpour right before the race. And now he should improve at least two points in his final prep. But even if you don’t think that’s fast enough to put him in position to win the Derby, just remember that Mage won the Derby off a “3 3/4” in his final prep, with fewer number of starts under him and no stakes victories. Could Delgado and his son Gustavo Jr. be the next great father and son training team?
7. Silent Tactic (Mark Casse, Tacitus — Magical Sign, by Gun Runner)
The biggest reevaluation we did during this final slow weekend concerned this colt. First, we’re really not used to looking at weights in Derby preps, as almost every track has equal-weight stakes. But Oaklawn does not, and considering that Silent Tactic was beaten a nose in the Rebel, the five pounds he was giving Class President could very well have meant the difference between winning and losing. Second, if you break down his schedule, he has been at a huge disadvantage. He worked five furlongs in 1:01 3/5 on January 21 for the January 31 Southwest Stakes. But with the postponent of the race to February 6 and the track closed for training for nine consecutive days from January 24 to February 1 due to a severe winter storm, Silent Tactic went into the Southwest and won despite not having worked for 16 days leading up to the race. Because of the postponement, it was only 23 days to the Rebel Stakes on March 1. Silent Tactic worked a half in a sharp :47 2/5 on February 20, so he went into the Rebel with only one work in 23 days and having to give weight to not only Class President, but the accomplished Grade 1 horses Litmus Test and Blackout Time, who he finished ahead of by five and eight lengths, respectively. Finally, looking over his Thoro-Graph numbers of “10 1/2 – 10 1/2 – 8 – 4 1/2 – 2 1/2,” you can’t ask for a better pattern. If he continues this same trend it definitely puts him in position to win most Derbys. However, there is a “but” attached. He also hasn’t worked since the Rebel as of Sunday morning, and when asked when he is likely to work, Casse replied, “Not sure.” After two weeks, “not sure” is a bit puzzling, but I don’t want to make too much out of this; just mentioning it after playing him up and ranking him higher.
8. Cherokee Nation (Bob Baffert, Not This Time — Believe in Charlie, by Indian Charlie)
I honestly have no idea what to do with him. On one hand, he could be the sucker bet of the year, and on the other hand, you could be saying after the Santa Anita Derby, “Thank goodness I got down on him now,” or you could be lamenting, “I shoulda bet him back when there were enough doubters to jack up his odds.” So, what is it going to be? Do the numbers of his last race make the mostly mediocre numbers of his first five races seem irrelevant? Does his “negative-1” Thoro-Graph number in his spectacular maiden win coming off a mudane “8 3/4” mean he is going to “bounce to the moon,” as they say in speed sheets vernacular, or has the transformed, revitalized Cherokee Nation actually become the proverbial overnight sensation? Also is it a coincidence that his two best races by far have been the only races he’s run with Lasix?. Those are the questions we have to answer before reality takes over in the Santa Anita Derby. We have seen him close like a rocket in the final furlong, blow the doors off his field on the front end, and in other races show little interest in running. So just who is this horse now and in the future? Looking back at the Robert Lewis Stakes, it looked as if he wanted to go as soon as he broke out of the gate, but jockey Antonio Fresu pulled back hard on the reins. He didn’t seem comfortable being rated and getting stuck in traffic. When Fresu got him in the clear and asked him for his run he had nothing, and by the time they turned for home he had called it a day, paying no attention to being hit several times. Then three weeks later he looks like Seattle Slew. Well, we still have three more weeks to figure him out. Good luck.
9. Further Ado (Brad Cox, Gun Runner — Sky Dreamer, by Sky Mesa)
Back in January when Further Ado was just beginning serious training, Spendthrift Farm COO and general manager Ned Toffey, when discussing the colt’s current status, said the seemingly mundane words, “He’s on track for the Tampa Bay Derby on March 7, but I can see him needing that race.” Almost two months later, those words had more meaning than I thought, and I can say unequivocally that in finishing a strong second, Further Ado definitely needed that race. How do I know that? Thoro-Graph sort of told me so. Here is a horse who started his career running an “8” and a “10.” Nothing special. Then shipping to Keeneland and stretching out to two turns for the first time, it was as if he was propelled out of the gate by some super force, winning by a staggering 20 lengths and earning an outrageous “negative-1.” He obviously had to “bounce” off that and did to a “5 1/4” in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Stakes, but won anyway. So after a 3 1/2-month layoff it was extremely important that he start to head back toward that monster number, which definitely is a number that can, and often does, win the Kentucky Derby. And he’d already run it. I was hoping to see a slightly bigger forward move, but his “5 1/2” at least gave him pretty much a pairing, and he now should make that big forward move. It is just a question of whether it will be big enough to put him in position to get back close to that negative number in the Derby. But least he has a target that he has already hit.
10. Class President (Todd Pletcher, Uncle Mo — Top Quality, by Quality Road)
As if we don’t have enough challenges trying to rank these horses, I was forced to lower his rankings, at least temporarily, after finding out that Pletcher told Churchill Downs he was trying to decide whether or not to train him up to the Derby or use another prep. Pletcher knows his horses a lot better than I do, but from our perspective it’s one thing to be forced into running in the Derby with only three lifetime starts and another to do it willingly for whatever reason, especially with a horse who didn’t debut until late December, has never gone 1 1/8 miles, and would into the Derby off a nine-week layoff. Because he also hasn’t worked since the Rebel as of Sunday morning, I am just going to put him on hold for now and see if Pletcher’s comment to Churchill has anything to do with the colt not working in two weeks. I am just going to leave this alone for now. After losing Tappan Street last year following his victory in the Florida Derby, it is hoped for WinStar’s sake and for the Derby picture in general that Class President works soon and is on schedule for a final prep. For now, not knowing anything concrete, we’ll just keep him around here until we learn the reason behind Pletcher’s indecision what to do next with him. If he works and Pletcher confirms he will have a prep after this goes to post, then, as Emily Litella would say, “Never mind.”
11. Reagan’s Honor (Cherie DeVaux, Honor A. P. — Rutile, by Medaglia d’Oro)
I’m not seeing many potential bargains among the ranked horses in the latest Future Wager. But one who very well could be is this guy, who closed at 38-1. Yes, the pressure will be on him in the Blue Grass Stakes, making his stakes debut against Paladin and Further Ado, and perhaps Commandment or The Puma. That is not an easy task. But based on his last race against older horses, we really can’t say that for certain, as we have no idea just how good he is. We should have a better idea after we see how he reacts to that monster Thoro-Graph jump from a “10 1/2” to a “3 1/2.” If that is his natural progression, the others could have their work cut out for them at Keeneland. We know he will be sharp and fit coming off a pair of stiff works in company with LeComte winner Golden Tempo, in which both colts looked super coming down the stretch and galloping out. After their latest work, a half in :48 4/5, we will get to see how Golden Tempo does in Saturday’s Loiuisiana Derby. What I like about Reagan’s Honor is how polished he looks, carrying his legs under him beautifully, switching leads smoothly, and running perfectly straight down the stretch while hugging the rail. I would like to see him drop his head just a little more after turning for home to give him a bit more push and extension, not that he needed it in this race. He began to do it inside the eighth pole and increased his lead over an impressive last-out maiden winner for Kenny McPeek, pulling farther ahead in the final 100 yards and galloping out strong.
12. Chip Honcho (Steve Asmussen, Connect — Miss My Rose, by Magician)
The five-furlong work machine was at it again last week with his second straight 1:02 1/5 drill following back-to-back works of 1:01 4/5 and a 1:01 3/5 drill. Asmussen has this colt dead-fit to go 1 3/16 miles on Saturday in the Louisiana Derby, in which he looks to be the only speed again, and we saw how hard Paladin had to work to beat him in the Risen Star when he got loose on the lead. That does make him enticing as well in the Future Wager at 45-1. With the exception of Golden Tempo, he’ll be going against new faces this time, including Sunland Derby winner Pavlovian, the impressive first-out maiden winner Emerging Market, and a pair of WinStar Farm maiden winners. But all those horses want to come from off the pace, so we’ll see if this race develops the same way as the Risen Star, in which he finished 5 1/2 lengths ahead of third-place finisher Golden Tempo. Remember, this colt has an abundance of stamina in both his male and female families. Although his Brisnet speed figures are improving with every start, his late pace figures have ranged from 68 to 88, so if he can slow down his early and middle pace figures of high-90s and low 100s just a little it should enable him to be stronger in the stretch and not blow a clear lead late as he did against Paladin. But I feel he could keep getting better the farther he goes when he is able to slow the pace down a little and use all that European and U.S. stamina in the final furlong.
13. Golden Tempo (Cherie Devaux, Curlin — Carrumba, by Bernardini)
It will be interesting to see what version of Golden Tempo we get in Saturday’s Louisiana Derby. We all know the Golden Tempo who comes from far back and makes a big a late run. But following two sharp works in blinkers with stablemate Reagan’s Honor, and wearing them for the first time in the Louisiana Derby, are we about to see a more aggressive colt who will be closer to the pace? Following the latest drill, a half in :48 4/5, Devaux said, “I hope it translates in the race without changing his running style.” We have often seen late closers get blinkers to keep them from falling too far back, as Golden Tempo did in the Risen Star, and lose some of their closing kick. But this is the time to try and at least give him a chance to win rather than just pass horses late to pick up a piece of it. Sometimes it is second race blinkers on that winds up getting the desired results. We have to remember that when Golden Tempo made his career debut at six furlongs, DeVaux knew he lacked speed, and going that short, she was just hoping to see him close ground. As expected he dropped back to 10th, but when he came charging down the stretch to actually win, it was much more than she hoped for. So he has won at six furlongs, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him closer and still pack that same punch in the stretch, But you never know until they do it.
14. Potente (Bob Baffert, Into Mischief — Sweet Sting, by Awesome Again)
What was surprising watching the San Felipe was not that he won, but that his Thoro-Graph numbers jumped from a “7” to a “2 1/4.” That is one of the faster numbers run this year. Well, if you think that was surprising, and you want to be confused even more, the horse he ran down at the wire, the 67-1 Robusta, coming off a sixth-place finish in the Robert B. Lewis stakes, went from an “8” to an insane “1 1/4.” And he didn’t even change leads in the stretch. Could it have been the addition of blinkers? If so, that had to be the most impactful equipment change we’ve seen in a long time. So did Potente run a much better race and beat a better horse than one might think? Just what we need, more questions. Robusta did beat the old version of Cherokee Nation two races back with the addition of Lasix, so who knows, right? We only keep referring to Robusta because Potente has only two lifetime starts and two narrow victories, so who he beat takes on greater importance in trying to figure out if he is a legitimate Derby contender or just part of a California jigsaw puzzle where none of the pieces seem to fit. Having only two starts doesn’t help, but it’s getting tiresome saying that. It is what it is and once again we’ll see if the Santa Anita Derby helps in clearing up what has been a muddled Derby picture that is still far from coming into focus.
15. Incredibolt (Riley Mott, Bold d’Oro — Sapphire Spitfire, by Awesome Again)
This is the the first time in memory that a horse is ranked No. 3 on the Derby Rankings in Weeks 1 and 2 and then disappears completely from the Rankings because of a dreadful and inexplicable performance in his 3-year-old debut only to resurface in Week 9 after six weeks of total seclusion from the Derby picture. Not only did he resurface, he went from a virtual non entity to the 16-1 sixth choice in the Future Wager. But what else do you expect in a wacky year like this. So now we have to determine just where he fits after returning to his old self in the 1 1/8-mile Virginia Derby and doing it with a dominating performance. It would be easy to get excited by his auspicious return, in which he won by four lengths, running the nine furlongs in a sharp 1:47 3/5 with a :12 flat final eighth, and shoot him back up near the top of the Rankings, But we have to take a deep breath and realize that this was not a strong field of Derby contenders and the runner-up was a maiden, albeit one who had finished second in two straight stakes. Also, the track was very fast, with the 1 1/16-mile Virginia Oaks run in 1:41 2/5. Now Riley Mott and Pin Oak Stud have to decide whether to run him back in another prep or wait seven weeks to the Derby off a one-turn race. The bottom line is that it’s good to have Incredibolt and young Mott back, bringing some great backstrories with them. If you want some in-depth background on this colt he was featured in our December 15 column as one of the live Derby hopefuls to watch. We’re looking forward to moving him higher at some point, but just being ranked after such a long absence is a big step back for now.
KNOCKING ON THE DOOR
As if we haven’t thrown enough questions out there, here are some others.
The once highly regarded Derby contender LITMUS TEST has seen his Thoro-Graph numbers go from a “7 1/4 to a 3 3/4 to a 4 1/2 to a 7.” So is he going backwards and is back where he started from last year? I still say he deserves another chance, considering the odd path he took to the Rebel, which we discussed last week, and the tactics used in the race. I don’t know that he can make that big a move forward in the Arkansas Derby to be a major contender again, but I believe he has too much talent and competitiveness to totally give up on him, as many have, judging by his 45-1 odds in the Future Wager. He is still at Oaklawn and worked a half in :48 4/5, so he should be going into his final prep in a much more conventional way than he did in the Rebel.
We saw Incredibolt bounce back big-time from a disappointing 3-year-old debut, and now, after turning in a blazing :47 flat work at Oaklawn Saturday, fastest of 78 works at the distance, will we also see BLACKOUT TIME storm back into the Derby picture? Like Incredibolt and Litmus Test, he was also ranked in the Top 10 in week 1. I have always felt this was a top-class colt and off that work alone there is a decent chance that his performance in the Rebel was a false indicator of how good this colt really is. If you offered me the 41-1 he closed at in the Future Wager before the Rebel I would have thought you were insane. I can’t think of a reason not to take it now and forget that last race. After all, he did finish fourth off a layoff, so it’s not like he did no running and won’t be able to improve significantly off that performance. Some apparently did notice him in the Future Wager, as he was bet down from 54-1 at 2 o’clock Sunday.
While on the subject of disappointing races by top-class proven Grade 1 horses who are still potential overlays, can we also throw out NAPOLEON SOLO’S performance in the Fountain of Youth after a terrible beginning and not being 100 percent for this race? With a sharp five-furlong work in 1:00 2/5 at Palm Meadows and now likely heading back to New York for the Wood Memorial, I can certainly see him showing us that eye-catching brilliance he displayed in the Champagne Stakes. I thought he could be a potential freak after that race, and there is still a chance to continue thinking that with a similar performance in the Wood. At 57-1 in the Future Wager, that could be a risk worth taking.
So we have three horses who were once highly regarded and now mouth-watering prices in the Future Wager. Just go back several weeks ago and try to to imagine that these three colts would go off the odds mentioned above. Just keep thinking of the term, low risk, high return.
But there is a potential high-return investment out there with possibly a much lower risk. If I was betting the Future Wager just to get a live horse in the Kentucky Derby at big odds with no strikes against him, I would bet one horse who basically has been forgotten, and that is INTREPIDO, a Grade 1 winner who has never gotten any respect and still doesn’t at 69-1 in the Future Wager, despite coming off a gutsy second in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes. He worked five furlongs in a brisk 1:00 2/5 Sunday, second fastest of 14 works at the distance, and by passing the San Felipe he should be sharp for the Santa Anita Derby. This could be the Derby’s big overlay people are looking for at this late date. Many feel he might be distance limited because he got caught at the wire in the Lewis, but his pedigree doesn’t back that up at all and I don’t believe he wants to be on the lead. Some also still hold his Breeders’ Cup Juvenile against him, but he has at least put that race behind him by running huge in the Lewis. Of course we don’t know if the Clark Kent Cherokee Nation or the Superman Cherokee Nation is going to show up in the Santa Anita Derby. That is still to be determined.
And if you really want to make a killing, I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see SECURED FREEDOM, who has also been totally forgotten at 160-1 in the Future Wager, bounce back with a big performance in the Santa Anita Derby if he can get a better trip than he had in the San Felipe, bogged down in traffic for most of the race. A big long-striding horse like him who has a strong closing punch could very well be dangerous with a clean trip. At that monster price, I am willing to toss that race and see only his stretch run in the Bob Lewis. What is crazy is that after his third-place finish in the Lewis, he closed in the Pool 4 Future Wager ar 61-1. Now in Pool 5, following a fourth-place finish in the San Felipe he is 160-1. And guess what? He was beaten four lengths in the Lewis and 3 1/2 lengths in the San Felipe.
Saturday’s Louisiana Derby drew a field of nine, with two ranked horses, Chip Honcho and Golden Tempo entered. Breaking from the rail will be the Sunland Derby winner PAVLOVIAN, trained by Doug O’Neill. Brad Cox will try to get two promising WinStar Farm maiden winners, AUTOBAHN and EASTERLY into the Derby picture, as will Bob Baffert with the recent impressive maiden winner and Los Alamitos Futurity runner-up BLACKSMITH. Kenny McPeek will keep trying to get the Kentucky Jockey Club and Street Sense runner-up UNIVERSE back in form following two disappointing efforts this year. His fourth in the Risen Star was at least a step in the right direction. Although he isn’t likely to run in the Kentucky Derby off two lifetime starts, there will be a lot of support for the much-hyped maiden winner EMERGING MARKET, trained by Chad Brown. And no race at Fair Grounds is complete without a Dallas Stewart bomb, and he will send out the one-for-seven SPIRIT OF ROYAL, coming off a ninth-place finish in the Southwest Stakes.
The Jeff Ruby Steaks has its usual stacked field of 12, made up mostly of horses not familiar with racing fans, many coming off the grass. The most accomplished horse in the field is the Eddie Logan and Zuma Beach winner STARK CONTRAST, trained by Mike McCarthy, who was second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. This will be his synthetic track debut and he will have to break from post 11. The John Battaglia and Leonatus Stakes runner-up FULLEFFORT looks strong in here, but his status is iffy right now. Dick Mandella will send the Into Mischief colt MEDICI, coming off a nose defeat in the Pasadena Stakes on grass. After winning the Virginia Derby, Pin Oak Stud will try for a double with CHAOS AGENT, winner of his only start at Gulfstream going 1 1/16 miles on dirt. An interesting horse is BAYTOWN DREAMER, who is one-for-11, but after racing on dirt and grass he made his synthetic debut in the Battaglia and finished fourth, beaten only 3 1/4 lengths, at 112-1.
STOP THE CAR, a horse I was high on last year following his maiden victory, will try synthetic for the first time following a seventh-place finish in the LeComte Stakes. He has not drawn good posts and didn’t again, breaking from the far outside 12 post. Calumet Farm’s BLACK HORNET is coming off a victory in the 1 1/16-mile Black Gold Stakes on grass at Fair Grounds and will be making his synthetic debut. Calumet also has TURF STAR, second in the Bourbon Stakes on grass last year, but is coming off a sixth-place finish in the Kitten’s Joy. MAXIMUS PRIME is still a maiden after eight starts, but is coming off a fast-closing third, beaten 1 1/2 lengths, in the Battaglia at 88-1. Another horse coming off the grass is ARGOS, winner of the Summer Stakes last year at Woodbine. Previously trained by Riley Mott, he is now trained by Brad Cox. One horse improving with every start since going to synthetic is BRAVE FORCE, who broke his maiden last out at Turfway going a mile.
Despite his poor performance in the San Felipe, it looks as if we could see BRANT give it one more try in the Blue Grass Stakes. One horse looking to bounce back from a disastrous trip in the Rebel Stakes is SOLDIER N DIPLOMAT, who worked five furlongs in 1:02 1/5. I still believe this is a very talented horse, but rather than stretch him out classic distances right now they are taking it one step at a time and will point him the one-mile Hot Springs Stakes on March 26.
CANALETTO, who ran such a big race to finish a close third in the Tampa Bay Derby, will now be pointed for the Preakness by Chad Brown rather than rush him unto the Derby. Brown, who still has Paladin for the Derby, will have to make a decision which road to take with the undefeated Gotham winner IRON HONOR, who runs in the Wood Memorial off only two lifetime starts. For those who have been waiting an eternity for the exciting maiden winner ENGLISHMAN to run again, he finally is back and has been entered in a six-furlong allowance at Fair Grounds on Thursday.
Several weeks ago, we introduced you in great detail to an undefeated Japanese horse to keep an eye on named DANON BOURBON. The good-looking son of Maxfield still has several obstacles to overcome to get into the Kentucky Derby, and will face the first and most important one when he runs in the March 28 Fukuryu Stakes, the final leg of the Japanese Road to the Derby. He will need to win and make sure two others don’t finish second. Although he’s had only two career starts, winning both with ease, they were at 1 1/8 miles and 1 3/16 miles. He was in the latest Derby Future Wager and closed at 58-1.
Racing historian, author, and award-winning retired journalist for the Daily Racing Form and The Blood-Horse, Steve Haskin was inducted into the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame’s Media Roll of Honor in 2016. Known for his racing knowledge and insightful prose, he has been an exclusive contributor to Secretariat.com since 2020.
The Fairgrounds announcer called him “Eldon Maldonado”, the rider of Pavlonian has made a living coaxing speed out of front runners, there’s none better at that! It’s Edwin Maldonado….
News Flash!
Napoleon Solo will scratch out of the Arkansas Derby and instead will run in the Wood Memorial.
Do the owners get their supplemental fee, $20k, back after deciding not to run their entrant?
Good question, Robert. Unfortunately, I’m not familiar with the rules that have been established on supplemental fees relative to scratches.
Possibly, someone else can step up and provide an answer to your question.
Thanks for the attempt nonetheless. I can see $20k a no big deal to ownership groups like the ones that call themselves “The Avengers” and if it’s not recouped by Solo’s then they’re in the same league.
After watching some replays, I think that Saturday could be Nearly’s day. The Holy Bull was run fast early and Nearly still finished after putting away the Brad C runner.
Todd Pletcher has given Nearly plenty of time to recover and look at those workouts.
Johnny V stays put on Nearly rather than going to Arkansas to ride the highly regarded Renegade. The Florida Derby sets up for one of those patented Johnny V stalking rides.
I wish that I wasn’t so invested in Commandment and “The Chief”. I suggest using all 3 horses in multi-race wagers if you can afford it.
The Puma has his fans but hasn’t cracked 90 on the BSF scale. In fact, watching the replay of his Tampa Bay Derby run, Canaletto was best on the day but got trapped wide all the way. Not Flavien Prat’s best ride. No offense.
Here’s the text I sent 2 of my buddies on 1/2/2026:
“I just saw the Derby Winner take N1X at Gulfstream.”
I still stand by that.
LMAO!
Give us a horsey visit story, Relva.
Too bad you possess a vile hatred for horses. Give us the story regarding that you would dine on horse meat! Won $1400 on The Puma. Go cash your $2 ticket!
My bet is that she has already ….
No doubt! She cares about nothing, other than for one barn.
I do seem to remember a photo of you with Midnight Lute, you know, in a horsey visit.
Thanks! She does nothing other than constant struggle to get attention.
Here’s the text I sent 2 of my buddies on 1/2/2026:
“I just saw the Derby Winner take N1X at Gulfstream.”
I still stand by that.
G1, Arkansas Derby, Saturday, 3-28
1) Redland Rebels, 15-1, (Keith Asmussen), (cross-entered in the Fla. Derby)
2) Silent Tactic, 5/2, (Cristian Torres)
3) Blackout Time, 6-1, (Brian Hernandez Jr.)
4) Bricklin, 20-1, (Jamie Torres)
5) Taptastic, 20-1, (Eric Asmussen)
6) Renegade, 3/2, (Irad Ortiz Jr.)
7) Napoleon Solo, 6-1, (Kendrick Carmouche)
8) Exosome, 20-1 (Adam Beschizza)
9) Litmus Test, 5-1 (Francisco Arrieta)
Currently, I have Renegade at the top of my Derby Watch listed, followed by Potente and Commandment. Coincidently, all three colts were sired by Into Mischief.
I expect a breakout performance by Renegade in the Arkansas Derby.
Safe trips to all.
BTW, Silent Tactic worked 5F, in 1:01.60, over the Oaklawn Park track, on 3-19. Steve mentioned he was concerned that he hadn’t worked since the Rebel, so it appears he’s well fit to take on Renegade. From my perspective, the Arkansas Derby is a two- horse race between Silent Tactic and Renegade. I’ll go with Renegade for the win.
A few line moves at William Hill this morning:
Reagan’s Honor now 20-1
Danon Bourbon is now 25-1; opened at 75-1, moved to 60-1; must have had some large bets recently?
Emerging Market, Pavlovian 90 bsf
Golden Tempo 88
Sorry if this has been addressed on this thread but has Cherie given her opinion on Ortiz ducking 6-7 paths inside in the Louisiana Derby. Ortiz said that the leaders were bearing out but the head on contradicts this statement. They bore out much much closer to the wire. Many will say that GT had no chance to pass the leaders but he was about 3-4 lengths behind before ducking in, moved 6 paths, lost momentum, regained momentum, and came again to lose by a length. I’m not the best mathematician but….
Thoro Graph numbers from race should be interesting
The Hot Springs Stakes this Thursday at Oaklawn features a group horses that had been taken out of the Derby picture but still can vie for the Preakness.
Desert Gate with Flavien Prat starting from post position one is the odds on favorite as his was in all his five starts except for the Del Mar Futurity. Brant in this race and Intrepido in the American Pharoah Stakes put the one length ahead of Desert Gate preventing him to be a Grade 1 winner.
Soldier N Diplomat with Irad Ortiz Jr. and Strategic Risk are the other horses with Stakes credentials trying to defeat Desert Gate in the one mile of the Hot Springs Stakes.
Javier Castellano sticks with Strategic Risk in another attempt for vindication after two very disappointing performances in the Southwest and Rebel Stakes. Strategic Risk, the very one we had seen as having the best pedigree for the Classic distances is now a 20 to 1 longshot.
Soldier N Diplomat starting from the outside appears in disadvantage against Desert Gate running by the rail but he is faster than the three horses to his left. So, Irad Ortiz Jr. will likely secure a nice position early in the field of seven. You would think that Soldier N Diplomat is a solid second choice in the morning line but he is 8 to 1 …
The second, third and fourth ML choices are debut winner Lincoln’s Law at 7/2, Top Level at 4/1, and Bricklin at 9/2.
The Hot Springs Stakes is another clash of horses with Stakes experience and newcomers. Will we see another Nearly, Iron Honor, Potente or Emerging Market emerging from this $200K Stakes? I doubt it but the odds maker thinks Lincoln’s Law is the one.
Express Kid is running in the Santa Anita Derby. I enjoyed watching him run in the Remington Mile and Sunland Derby. I still cant believe he lost that head bob in the Sunland.
G1, Florida Derby, Saturday, 3-28
1) Albus, Tyler Gaffalione)
2) Chief Wallabee, (Junior Alavarado)
3) Wayne’s Law, (Marcos Meneses)
4) Commandment, (Flavien Prat)
5) Redland Rebels, (Joel Rosario)
6) Nearly, (John Velazquez)
7) Timeless Victory, (Jose Morelos)
8) The Puma, (Javier Castellano)
9) Gregarious, (Rajiv Maragh)
In my view, the Florida Derby appears to be a four-horse race, between Commandment, Nearly, Chief Wallabee and The Puma. I’ll wheel Commandment and Nearly on top, in the first two slots, with Chief Wallabee, The Puma, Timeless Victory, Redland Rebels and Albus underneath in the 3rd and 4th slots, in a $1.00 superfecta wager. That is: 4,6/4,6/ 1,2,3,5,7/ 1,2,3,5,7 (cost, $40.00)
I’ll flip that over, just in case a longshot steals the race.
That is: 1,2,3,5,7/ 4,6/ 4,6/ 1,2,3,5,7 (cost, $40.00)
Safe trips to all.
Chief Wallabee. The Puma and Nearly are mi picks.
Commandment beat Chief Wallabee, in the FOY, and his gallop out was by far the most impressive, IMO. Comparing their respective pedigrees, for the Classic distance, I would give the nod to Commandment. My only concern regarding Commandment, is the jockey switch. With Irad Ortiz Jr. riding Renegade in the Arkansas Derby, Brad Cox with go with Flavien Prat as his replacement, which is certainly not a step down, IMO. That said, I remain convinced the Nearly and Commandment are the top two colts in the Florida Derby.
Good luck with your picks, Lynda.
Edit: I’m convinced that Nearly and Commandment………
Linda, I like CW. For me, he’s the play.
Thanks for the update Bill.
The Florida Derby looks to have a hot pace with six horses doing their best as frontrunners.
With that assumption I feel like Commandment, Chief Wallabee and The Puma wil be the beneficiaries of the possible speed duels early.
Nearly and Chief Wallabee need the points so one would think they will be all out while Commandment and The Puma will be a proper prep.
A Super HI-5 could be the way to go in the Florida Derby. I am thinking something like:
2,4,6/2,4,6/6,8/7,8/1,7 for a $22-ticket
The Florida Derby might very well showcase the Derby winner… I am interested in seeing how Commandment continues building on his impressive 3-race streak .
I like Nearly….
Matthew: Ditto on Nearly
You’re welcome, Nelson
I plan on plan taking a shot at the Hi-5 as well. I’ll wheel Commandment and Nearly in the first two slots, with Chief Wallabee, The Puma and Albus underneath in the 3rd, 4th and 5th slots.
4,6/ 4,6/ 1,2,8/ 1,2,8/ 1,2,8. ($12.00)
Good luck, Nelson
Edit: A slight revision to my Superfecta wager.
Should be, 4,6/ 4,6/ 1,2,5,7,8/ 1,2,5,7,8. And, 1,2,5,7,8/ 4,6/ 4,6/ 1,2,5,7,8
It could be said that Robusto was best, in the San Felipe…and Pavlonian best, at Louisiana, he took pressure from many! O’Neill longshots are dangerous …
Being agressive to fully utilize the natural speeds of Robusta and Pavlovian has certainly paid out well for O’Neill.
There are people trying to teach very fast horses to rate and they just deprive them from their best weapon (advatage).
I understand Potente dusted Cherokee Nation today, in a half mile work….his first work back, after the San Felipe….
Yesterday—Skippylingstocking and Touchuponastar—both 7yo—won graded stakes, and Gold Phoenix–8yo—also won a graded stakes, fifth year in a row he has done that….
Touchuponastar has won more than 75% of his 27 starts, and Skippy has never been better …these two elderly guys are at the top of the older horse division….
It’s almost as if horses are at their best when fully developed… think of how better the sport would be if we had good to great horses running until they were 6-7 yrs old. The ability to attach oneself as a fan for 5 years to a horse would certainly increase popularity to the industry.
You’re right Matthew. We are left with little time to get attached to our favorites before they’re shipped off to the breeding shed. At least the geldings stick around for a while.
BTW, imo, the term “industry” has little to no appeal in and of itself. The “sport” of horse racing appeals to me, not so much the “industry”.
Congratulations Skippy!
Universe has 38 points. Ran in 6 points races. Last 3 starts finished 4th, 4th, 7th. Maybe he’ll run in the Lexington if he doesnt feel secure with 38 points, lol.
I asked on here a couple weeks ago why DRF had Canaletto #11 and Emerging Market unranked.
Its their opinion…there is no correct answer!!!
One horse got a 89 beyer going 1 turn in his debut and the other had a 96 going 2 turns and the 96 going 2 turns isnt even in the same ballpark of the 89 going 1 turn?
Not going to sweat it.
Jose won five races…but his trip on Golden Tenpo—upon re-watching –they finished closer, than I thought, what was the sudden duck inside for, was he not able to change leads? Did not look like he didn’t have a clear path down the outside…had they stayed outside might he even have won?
Jerry Bailey said Pavlonian was forcing Emerging Market wide and probaly would”ve been taken down if he had won.So,they would”ve ended up in Golden Tempo”s path.Kind of makes sense.
It looked like the top two were going straight ..
I could not understand Jose Ortiz “overcorrecting” Golden Tempo either.
Yes… Edwin Maldonado (Pavlovian) were pushing Prat (Emerging Market) out but Jose Ortiz could have just gone from 7 or 6 wide to 4 wide to avoid being blocked by the two fighting jockeys at the last 1/16 BUT Golden Tempo went to the rail.
If you consider that Golden Tempo ran the last furlong in 12.37 faster than the 12.51 for Emerging Market and even faster than Pavlovian (12.62) you can assume that running straight would have let the son of Curlin (at least) be involved in the photo finish.
I am sure Jose Ortiz will be taking in some valuable lesson there…
Anyway, I believe Golden Tempo will be the bet value and the key to get juicy exotics in the Kentucky Derby.
I agree.
I agree too
Thankfully, horses don’t know what BSF they ran. Powershift ran a pretty big number as well as have many a horse over the years that haven’t amounted to much.
The question will be can Fulleffort dirt, cuz he looked good today, a full second faster than the Kentucky Cup….that’s a finisher …
Yes Mathew the question about Fulleffort on dirt will be there even after seeing him galloping happily on Churchill Downs in the weeks before the Derby.
If Paladin is Sierra Leone 2.0 then Fulleffort is Final Gambit 2.0… so far the plan has been successful for the gray let’s see how it goes for Paladin in the Blue Grass.
Nine horses entered for both the Florida Derby and the Arkansas Derby next Saturday.
Nearly, The Puma, Commandment, and “The Chief” at Gulfstream.
Napoleon Solo, Renegade, Litmus Test, Blackout Time, and Silent Tactic at Oaklawn.
Sounds like a fun day.
Didn’t Blacksmith run in the La Derby?
That is Blackout Time in the Arkansas Derby…
Got it! Sorry about the double post, Nelson. I was doing it from my phone during a break in a concert last night.
Didn’t Blacksmith run in the La Derby?
Do you think that Chad Brown is embarrassed by his embarrassment of riches with Paladin, Canaletto, and Emerging Market? I don’t either.
It’s nice that Emerging Market won the Louisiana Derby, but is it a negative that he only beat Pavlovian by a nose? Pavlovian coming off a nose win in New Mexico.
There was no way that Emerging Market was going off at 6-1. That was crazy talk.
Chip Honcho “bounced” to the moon.
Can’t wait to read what Steve Haskin has to say about the situation. My guess is that we won’t see Emerging Market again until the Peter Pan.
Has any trainer ever won the Triple Crown with 3 different horses? I would guess “no”.
Tommy, let’s not forget Iron Honor. He might not be on par with the three you mentioned but, he has a lot of upside potential and I’m anxious to see what he does in the Wood.
Is it me, or are the days flying by a bit quicker now as we get closer to the Derby?
I would have liked to see Emerging Market pull away in the long stretch. The raw clock was solid but Equibase scored it an 89, the worst since they’ve kept numbers in 1992. Still a gritty performance for only second start.
They first got to make it to the starting gate in May, Tommy.
Very impressive win by Emerging Market in the Louisiana Derby. His pedigree says it all. With Candy Ride on top, and Empire Maker as his dam’s sire, this colt was bred to run all day. As I mentioned in a previous comment, he “could” carry the X-Factor large heart gene. The future appears to be bright for Emerging Market.
Bill, I agree 100%. Candy Ride gets way too little appreciation and his stud fee is a lowly. $60,000. On top of that Emerging Market is out of an unproven mare. I have said before that breeders are going to regret not breeding mares to Candy Ride just to have mares out of him. His retirement is not far away.
Back to back wins for a Brad Cox trainee in the Jeff Ruby.
Bob Baffert is breaking a 20-year hiatus in the Louisiana Derby after his decision to establish a permanent division at Churchill Downs. Blacksmith is only his third horse in the Louisiana Derby. Baffert won with Wimbledon in 2004 and was second with Point Determined in 2006.
Who would have imagined this twist after CDI barred Baffert from its properties for three year. Moving to Churchill Downs is a sensible business decision more than a triumph of diplomacy. The sad part of the plot is the looming demise of Santa Anita Park. The billion-dollar logic of the real estate business will eventually sofocate any racetrack surrounded by premium areas.
But going back to the chances of Blacksmith, I would say that his 6-to-1 ML looks like an overlay. The son of Liam’s Map entered the watching list of a lot of people after his close second to the highly regarded Litmus Test in the Los Alamitos Futurity.
Blacksmith could not break his maiden in his sophomore debut on January 9 but you cannot blame him for that as he was defeated by Robusta and Cherokee Nation who will be among the favorites in the Santa Anita Derby.
Looking at Blacksmith’s maternal family one can easily conclude that he will appreciate the 1 3/16 mile of the Louisiana Derby. The staying power of Curlin, Bernardini, and Storm Cat is reinforced by his fourth dam, Better than Honour, who has the distinction of producing two Belmont Stakes winners.
Will Blacksmith stalk Chip Honcho closely and pass him at the finish line. We will find out in 30 minutes from now.
Correction: Point Determined did not run in the Louisiana Derby.
Kafwain finished second in the 2003 Louisiana Derby.
I agree with you Nelson on the likely demise of SA. Unfortunately this was put in motion when Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger granted “exclusive” slots gaming rights to Indian Tribes of California.
Thanks for the information Robert… I would be great if the Indigenous people invested in the industry of horse racing…
Nelson, in a way they do.
The purchase Thoroughbred sprinters to race in the Indian Relay Races.
Very exciting sport.
There was a special on CBS a few years ago that is still available on YouTube.
Just Google Indian Relay Races and it should come up.
Just rewatched last night.
Yes Lynda.
I remember watching that documentary before.
However, I am talking about building and managing racetracks to leverage their tax benefits.
Anyway, I am not expert in the types of incentives in American businesses but I feel there should be some for helping horse racing somewhere…
Ortiz has the hot hand today at Fair Grounds, with four winners so far. I already liked Golden Tempo and he should love that long stretch, so he’s my pick in the Lousiana Derby.
He unfortunately ran sideways more than he did straight. Probably should have won. Nice call, still.
Thanks, Roan Boy. He did enough to get into the Derby and I like his superfecta chances. Certainly better prepared than others, who are trying to win it off 2 or 3 lifetime starts.
Agree!
Hi Steve! I hope Golden Tempo runs well today in the Louisiana Derby! Not sure who my Derby horse will be yet. But I appreciate your analysis of the top contenders so far.
Not To Worry (Street Sense/Bernardini) was mighty impressive, in his debut at Fairgrounds just now …swept by them all, that track is fast—Not To Worry looks like any kind….
Reflecting on Snowdrop’s comment below about Chip Honcho, I also noticed how polarizing he is among analysts and handicappers. Some feel Chip Honcho is going to win rather easily the Lousiana Derby today while others don’t have him among their top three or even top four choices. It is a case of “all or nothing” for Chip Honcho.
Last week we were talking about not knowing little about horses with one or two starts. For Chip Honcho I would say we alredy know what he’s done and who he is. A consistent gritty runner who can stretch his natural speed to a 9 furlongs and perhaps longer. His only “bad” race was a fourth in the Lecomte Stakes only 1 3/4 lengths behind Golden Tempo. This was actually an excellent performance considering he broke last and was forced to go five wide to contest a hot early pace.
And the son of Connect validated that view with a gallant second behind the early Derby favorite, Paladin, in the Risen Star Stakes. Chip Honcho ran the final quarter mile in 25 seconds flat and the last furlong in 12 4/5 after clocking very fast early fractions. Paladin had to almost break the Stakes record time to defeat Chip Honcho.
Perhaps not having an elite pedigree like many of the Derby hopefuls and Asmussen discouraging record in the Derby make Chip Honcho less popular in the eyes of some people.
However, Connect is the sire of the $3.9-million earner and strong closer Rattle N Roll, and the brilliant stayer Forever Afer All, among other 19 black type winners.
Chip Honcho’s dam is by Magician who won the Breeder’s Cup Turf as a 3-year-old. His second dam is by millionaire Afternoon Deelites and his third dam is by Affirmed. These are not commercially appealing crosses but they are proving to be powerful in Chip Honcho regardless.
Is Golden Tempo, Emerging Market, or Blacksmith able to run quasi record time to defeat Chip Honcho today like Paladin did in the Risen Star?
They all had to be ridden hard not only at the end of their races but also early on to keep them in contention. They would be in disadvantage behind a Chip Honcho traveling relaxed and eay in pacesetting the Lousiana Derby.
At the list the odds maker agrees with that assessment… how the public bias finally plays out is another thing.
Nice commentary, Nelson.
Thanks Ms Blacktype.
Fairgrounds is playing very fast today. Touchuponastar established a new track record (9f in 1:46.84) in the New Orleans Classic Stakes.
I expect the fast track to benefit Chip Honcho with a final time around 1:55 for the 1 3/16 mile. Blacksmith could also do very well with his strong tactical speed.
The Louisiana Derby promises to be a very exciting race.
Nice call on the final time and being an exciting race. I had no live wagers but cheers to the rail horse. I thought he ran his eyeballs out
Honor Marie … a favorite of mine, on the 2024 Triple Crown Trail—now five, his latest race on the Turfway Tapeta was eye-catching, he runs his 16th career race today, maybe he has found his preferred surface?….
Chaos Agent is 10-1 ML in the Steaks Stakes …why do I think he may romp home, over these?..
Sounds like Reagan had a very solid work, just exactly what Cherie wanted …47.80, galloping out in 59 and change
Can’t wait for the Blue Grass!
Great analysis, I like what you wrote about Chip Honcho, I’m really hoping that he can improve with the extended distance. I’ve been very high on this horse since his victory in the Gun Runner S. (which I picked him for on a hunch), but I can’t seem to find much love for him in any of the commenting spaces I’ve visited though.
Steve ,your writing is extraordinary. Thanks.
Can one predict the demise of the Wood as an important 3yo prep because it becomes a one turn race at Belmont starting next year?
Breaking news: Class President worked this morning at Palm Beach Downs, 4f in :50 sec.
Thanks Mike C. I am waiting until the Florida Derby to see which horse Johnny V will ride in the Kentucky Derby; he has ridden Nearly and Class President.
Fair Grounds is playing lightning fast. I watched 4 dirt races yesterday. Vamos Carlitos ended his 6 race losing streak going a mile 1/16 in 142.18 and 4 year old Money Game advanced to 3-3 in his career in 142.35.
Money Game was off a 10 1/2 month layoff.
Another interesting update! Thank you.
. Yep I’m one of those folks that remembers Paladin. But I was a kid! My Mom was over the moon for Richard Boone. I didn’t see Intrepido knocking at the door this week. But. Maybe he’ll get back in. Glad to see Pavlovian in there too.
Wishing you a very Happy Birthday!
I too fondly remember the era of the TV westerns. That one was not one of my favorites, but they were all memorable. If Paladin ever goes to stud, they will provide some great names for his sons and daughters.
Intrepido is mentioned in para 6 of KOTD.
Thanks. Yep I’m one of those folks that remembers Paladin. But I was a kid! My MOTHER was over the moon for Richard Boone. I didn’t see Intrepido knocking at the door this week. But. Maybe he’ll get back in.
Wishing you a very Happy Birthday!
Englishman enters late, into the 3yo scene, and I’d like this to be a Preakness horse—Has the “J O Tobin Look” to him….sure is big by Maxfield, first crop getting runners …
Steve, Cherie has a hugely talented group of 3 year olds: Reagan. Golden Tempo, and Englishman
Based on what she’d said in the DRF, it looks like she thinks he’s a sprinter/miler
He certainly blew the doors off the track at Fair Grounds with his 1:08 and change six-furlong win, Betsy. Looked a little keen to me, but when a horse it that fast, the jock has to let him go.
I never like it when a jock fights a horse, Ms. B – if they want to run that day, even if the plan was to close, let the horse run -inevitably, if the jock strangles him back, the horse will not want to run
He got a 95 BSF (watch everyone be impressed with this now, lol, after not being do with Reagan’s 96, lol)
Cherie thinks he’s a sprinter/miler, so the Pat Day Mile is the goal – or was, before the race
I’ve never seen such a period of good weather at FG….and the track has been very fast
Thanks for the reply, Betsy. The Pat Day Mile is shaping up to be a great race, what with Obliteration and some other fast ones aiming for it.
You’re welcome !
With the recent announcement that Bob Baffert will move some of his horses to Churchill Downs, I’m wondering what overall impact this will have on California racing.
Not a good sign, that’s for sure.
California is that Land of What Was. Baffert is right to move some of his operation. The West Coast governments have all but killed the sport.
Thanks for the reply, Sally
Your comment is spot on. From my perspective, the powers that be at Santa Anita are lucky that Baffert will not empty his entire barn. His loyalty to Santa Anita is clearly evident. It could be just a matter of time before Santa Anita will shut down operations, just as Golden Gate did. Time will tell.
Sally, so it’s only West Coast gov involved?
I like the recent works, of Universe, we shall see if he’s Derby Timber, this Saturday—-
Irad Ortiz has committed to Renegade and Flavien Prat will ride Commandment in the Florida Derby. “Bad sign” for Commandment? Who knows?
Florida Derby is shaping up as a good race! Those two, and Nearly….
Either a bad sign or a big mistake. I was sorry to hear that. Both jockeys will give excellent rides–that will not be an issue. But I like Commandment and I liked having Irad on him. Of course, he knows a lot that I don’t know, but all along I’ve thought that Commandment was the better of the two horses. And as Steve pointed out, he’s also a very likeable colt. I’m sorry to see him and Irad parting company.
On the other side of the coin, has Chad Brown decided yet whether to go back to Prat on Paladin or to stay with Tyler Gafflione? If he picks Prat, Commandment might be available again. This is going to be a very interesting year for what used to be known as musical saddles. And we haven’t even got into John Velazquez’s choices. A lot of very good horses are going to be looking for riders for the Derby.
I’m certain Prat is riding Paladin…Irad had a decision to make and he choose Renegade….Prat made a decision to ride Galilean, instead of Omaha Beach for Mandella…the guy that put him up on horses, when he started riding, in the US—jockeys don’t always make the right choice, Horse Racing ain’t easy!…
Thank you for the information. I don’t envy anyone the decisions that will have to be made here. But it will be interesting to see how it all plays out.
TommyMcD: I think that one of the reasons that Irad Ortiz Jr. has chosen Renegade is because of his association with Todd Pletcher. Irad is one of Todd Pletcher two go to jockeys; Johnny V is the other jockey he can count on.
Happy birthday Steve and thank you for the great information. Like the shout out to John Stettin at Past the Wire. Enjoyed your comments on John’s show as well.
Thank you for recognising Silent Tactic as one of the best colts of this crop so far!
I am concerned with Casse’s comment, though: I hope hope hope that nothing is amiss. He DESERVES to win this Derby, being such tough competitor!
What comment?
Silent Tactic worked 5f at OP today
Thanks!
Hello Steve – I just finished watching DRF Derby watch video with David Aragona and David Grenig. I am relieved to hear that Grenig was told by Pletcher that Class President will run on APR 4 in one of the major preps, not sure which one yet. This would be the Bluegrass or the Wood Memorial. I know CP hasn’t worked in 17 days, but this tells me that after a tough gritty race in the Rebel that CP is doing fine and should presumably work this weekend. I think very highly of CP and bet him at 50-1 in KDFW3.
Just spoke to Elliott. He is working Friday. Happy to hear it. He will move back up. We’re in Kentucky now.
Thanks for the update Steve.
That’s good news, Steve. I’m one of Class President’s supporters (lucky to get him at 75-1).
Steve, I’m sorry to have missed your Tales of the Triple Crown lecture at the Keeneland Library yesterday. I’ve been in rehab after a fall last week and couldn’t make it to Keeneland, though I wanted to, despite my injury. Perhaps another time. The Keeneland Library is sending me a copy of your book.
Enjoy your visit to Kentucky and ‘happy birthday’.
Worked a half in company with Chess Match in 50:05.
The Wood could be a very interesting race. Not for Derby favorites but just a very interesting race.
I have always loved the Wood Memorial ( because of the tradition ), but I hope Beutane isn’t entered. He had a tough race in Virginia and really didn’t have the same talent as some of the other 3 year olds. I guess with that ridiculous purchase price, however, the connections want their “money’s worth”… uh, uh, uh.
Always. A shocker,right?
Beutane was comprimized from the start.
Poor post position, he got a wall of horses and could never make a move.
The inside post for young 3 olds is treacherous.
I am not paying too much into that race. At least he got a workout that he needed.
I’m still waiting for Rodriguez to return.
Who knows when that will be.
Why couldnt it pfoduce a derby favorite? Its not the race its the hotses in the race….Big Red put the Gotham stakes on the map, not the other way around…
I meant current Derby favorites. CP could enter though I guess.
Civil Liberty sold for $160K as a yearling, then as a 2yo he sold again, for $160K, which could be construed to be a bad sign…..the colt has a good sign—Doug O’Neill put him in, against The Bob Brigade, he usually will avoid Bob, entering into maiden turf sprints, he always has entered Civil Liberty against the best, I envision a stalking trip,vin The Wood Memorial, I think he could grab a check, in New York! I think Civil Liberty is a good horse!…
Just read on DRF that Incredibolt may go straight into the Derby without another start. He’ll be coming off a very strange ThoroGraph pattern.
Ms Blacktype – American Promise took that path last year, then finished 16th as the 5th betting choice in the wagering. I noticed also American Promise looks close to making his 1st start since the Derby.
I personally don’t think he’ll perform much better in Louisville than American Promise, although both are nice horses.
I personally think that Riley Mott has more finesse than D Wayne did, and I think Incredibolt will fare way better than American Promise did last year.
Incredibolt is a serious player, pedigree to get classic distance.
Love his breeding….Gold Medal ( thats English for Medalia d’Oro) was one of my favorites….he was a great racehorse and an outstanding sire, for sure….Incredibolt has a chance to be a big factor at a good price in Louisville….
Incredibolt is s much bettrr horse than American Promise….no horse is the same as another….Incredibolt’s performance in the Derby will have ansolutely no connection to Amer Promise or any other horse…
Correct! As mentioned, Incredibolt will make some noise if remaining sound.
Great column as usual and Happy Birthday Steve!
Ditto!
Chad has a 2nd time starter, in the LA Derby, I steer clear of such horses, Potente and Chief Wallabee are outliers, whom I take seriously…as a rule the maiden-to-graded stake route does not work well, I like Golden Tempo and I also think Universal has worked well, of late, it’s not exactly a stellar group, McPeek may get into the Derby yet—I see Liberty National has not worked in 4 weeks, maybe Universe will wake up, for McPeek….
Liberty National was euthanized after a workout on February 21st. It was reported in DRF, it was at the bottom of an article about a different topic, but I can’t find the article right now.
it was in the March 6 DRF article by Hersh titled “Asmussen readies deep stable for springtime stakes”
Thanks for posting this, Tim. Just awful for the horse, the trainer, and all the connections.
Terrible.
Grittiness appeared to me to have run well and had a somewhat troubled trip, went wide and came home running. Any thoughts on him?
He really turned on the afterburners when he got into the clear, didn’t he? Maybe he is peaking at the right time, unlike the early winners.
Trying to get my head around Mandella shipping Medici… it’s surprising. The Calif plane gets in tonight…will he be on it? I really, really like his races. He’s had the far outside post in all three of his last races and is clearly a very good gate horse as he’s established great position in all three. At 5-1 or better, he’s as good as any other in this race.
Well, it’s not that much of a reach, Matthew. Synthetic is similar to turf. And owners get Derby fever..
The REAL crazy move is Baffert thinking that Greenwich Village needs to contest the Epsom Derby. I think it means he is our of his mind …
Incredibolt runs a bang-up race, over a one-turn glib surface, and that’s all folks!…
Wow. Negative about him, huh? I guess we shall see and have to wait until the first Saturday in May.
Nothing “negative” intended! I posted what IS….they are going straight into the two-turn, 10 furlong Derby…off a one-turn 9 furlong prep race, is what I posted, I do like the horse—
Good luck to Pavlovian!
yes!
Another great column packed with useful information and some astute potential betting angles. Though I’m not much of a bettor, I’m learning a lot about betting strategies of the past through my research on the Hildreth book (on chapter 6!). In gambling, big rewards don’t come unless you a willing to take a big risk.
Great info Steve. I feel the same way about Secured Freedom. His last 2 races were very odd. One race wide all the way around but not pulling. In the second down on the rail pulling. Do blinkers come off? I’m hoping for a second so he makes the Derby. I made a bet at 80/1 on WH and sometime before the SA Derby I’ll go to the Westgate and wager more at 100/1. I look always forward to the Derby Doings. Thanks again.
Hi Steve – just making a small correction about Class President. He did have 1 start as a 2 yr. old on 12-27 at GP. I agree with you that he really needs another prep to be ranked highly and to seriously consider him as a win contender in the KY Derby. Maybe the Rebel knocked him out a bit and he needs an extra week to post his first work back after his impressive Rebel win. Hoping he works this weekend to put all fears aside and certainly hope he targets an APR prep, or even run him in the Lexington 3 weeks out From the Derby.
Thanks. I fixed that.
Hello Steve – keep us updated on Class President. I also hope he runs soon and targets a final prep in APR. My other KDFW horse is Paladin. He is so consistent and I love the way he has been handled. He should put up a strong performance in the Bluegrass which would set him up for the KY Derby at a distance which he likely will relish.
No offense, but the word must be out that the 3-year-olds at Fair Grounds are softies.
Horses will be coming from Santa Anita, Oaklawn, Gulfstream, Tampa, and Sunland to take on local heroes Chip Honcho and Golden Tempo in the Louisiana Derby.
Where to begin? Chip Honcho is a “bounce” candidate. But I did point out that the horse got a bad ride from the extreme outside post in his previous race, the Lecomte. Luis Saez will certainly try to steal it unless Pavlovian gives him some trouble. Pavlovian, a “bounce” possibility himself after a big number in New Mexico.
Golden Tempo will add blinkers to try and get him into the race earlier. Maybe. Maybe not. Sometimes, a closer is a closer is a closer.
The horse that jumps off the page is the #9 Emerging Market. Because we just saw this movie 2 weeks ago. Another Chad Brown one-race wonder that beat a horse(Powershift) who “bounced to the moon” in the Tampa Bay Derby. In fact, if I remember correctly, Brown’s one-race wonder at Tampa, Canaletto, was also the #9 when he got caught wide all the way around the track that day. Canaletto showed his class by being close at the finish and is now being pointed to the Preakness at Laurel.
If I also remember correctly, Canaletto is a $1million horse.
By today’s standards, Emerging Market is a much more moderately priced horse($185k). Has Seth Klarman found himself a bargain-basement Triple Crown runner? Too soon to say. Emerging Market could “bounce” off that 97 BSF earned on debut. But I see a couple of reasons to hope that he won’t. #1-Chad Brown gives him 2 more weeks than Powershift to recover. #2-Four works since that race. Three of the usual Chad Brown :49+change type works and one work that catches the eye. A bullet :48.3 at Payson. Best of 27 on the day. Very unlike Chad brown. I’ve been reading for quite awhile how deep and tiring that Payson track is. How it really gets the horses fit.
I also like that Emerging Market can sit a trip and close quickly when asked.
The highest last race BSF will surely draw plenty of attention to Emerging Market. But maybe only one race, a Maiden race at that, and the memories of Canaletto and Powershift at Tampa will keep the price square. Maybe not. The replay of that Maiden race looks spectacular. And I’m not in love with this field. On the other hand, Emerging Market will meet up with 3 proven Stakes performers. Golden Tempo was 6 lengths behind Brown’s Paladin. Chip Honcho rode what I believe was a speed biased track in the Risen Star and could “bounce”. Pavlovian……….well, this ain’t New Mexico.
My projected play almost a week early: an exacta key box Emerging Market to Universe and Blacksmith. Universe gets off the rail at last and Florent Geroux is hitting at 38% on BB runners. And Geroux knows Fair Grounds.
Doug O’Neill usually ships his 3yo stock, watch out when he doesn’t (I’ll Have Another), but there’s one track out here, and Bob B….you ship…
I threw a fiver on Secured Freedom, he is probably the largest horse on the 2026 Derby Trail, and he did get stopped inside, in the San Felipe…he hung in the stretch, Potente put him away—perhaps they will try sending him, hes’s not slow, and Brant won’t be there…maybe he will be more towards the lead, where he cannot get stopped….
Interesting Thorograph numbers on The San Felipe….I think Beyer’s judge their #s by horses past records, and Thorograph goes by “what is”….it’s Springtime, of their developing abilities, Wayne Lukas used to talk about this….good horses were beaten by the top two, in the Felipe….the SA Derby awaits, I recall a very talented behemoth named Indian Charlie, beating a skinny colt named Real Quiet, whose jockey—a guy named Kent—said to watch our, in Louisville, for Real Quiet—I can see a large colt named Cherokee Nation beating Potente, at Santa Anita….but Potente coming to Louisville to turn the tables, ala Real Quiet—its still a long way, but those numbers do make me wonder …
Steve, I meant to add that Romeo worked today at the FG! Thank you for asking about him !!
Great stuff, Steve – thank you!
Cherie did the right thing by giving RH extra time after his last, fast race …the BG will be a test, but it’s exciting !
I didn’t see his last work, but I’m glad he remains sharp. I’m interested to see how GT runs in the LA Derby – and if blinkers will make a difference