A New Set of Foes for Mage
If you’re looking to hit a big score in the Preakness this probably isn’t the race for you with the short field, a big favorite, and several interesting horses who probably will take a lot of money. I will be putting some minimal wagers on the race, but petty much watching it to see if the Mage Cinderella story can continue and we can look forward to seeing him try for the Triple Crown in three weeks. ~ Steve Haskin
A New Set of Foes for Mage
By Steve Haskin
A great deal of the talk surrounding the Preakness Stakes has been the reluctance of every trainer with a horse in the Kentucky Derby to come back in two weeks to face the victorious Mage. This is not about the Preakness as much as it is the mentality of trainers today. Todd Pletcher and Brad Cox are not going to run back in two weeks, especially with the latter having a shiny new weapon in his arsenal to run against Mage, and the two Japanese horses as expected have headed back home. That is half the Derby field right there.
Confidence Game and Disarm, two horses who would have been serious contenders, were originally on the list of possible Preakness horses, but Confidence Game backed out as usual for whatever reason and it was decided to give Disarm more time after the rush job to get him in the Derby, especially with his connections having Red Route One in the Preakness. So now we’re down to only six horses who backed out and they were all at the back of the pack in the Derby. So that’s just how it worked out this year.
Now let’s get to who is running and if there is anyone who can beat Mage. This is far from a strong field for a classic and it would seem that Mage only has to run back to his Derby, or even regress a little, to capture the second leg of the Triple Crown.
The overwhelming second choice and the horse given the best chance to upset the favorite is Lexington Stakes winner First Mission, trained by Brad Cox. It certainly wouldn’t come as a surprise if he were to win, as he looks like a talented and improving colt. But the fact is, for a horse likely to go off at 5-2 or 3-1, he beat Arabian Lion by a half-length in the Lexington and Arabian Lion, once highly regarded, has been a big disappointment this year, finishing out of the money in his only two stakes appearances before the Lexington. And third-place finisher Disarm was thrown into the race only to pick up points to get into the Derby.
Needing only to finish third, he was not cranked up for this and got what he needed without being ridden hard. So now we will see just how good First Mission really is.
So, is there any way to make money on this Preakness? The answer to that question could very well lie in the start. With only eight horses, you don’t want to see Mage drop to the rear of the field this time. We know he has early speed and this is the race for him to use it. The reason is the presence of the Bob Baffert-trained National Treasure, a colt with speed who hasn’t shown it since his career debut when he blazed an opening half in :44 1/5. He is now back with Baffert after his brief stay with Tim Yakteen; he drew the rail; and he gets blinkers on. And the only horse in the field who consistently runs on or near the pace, Coffeewithchris, doesn’t have the pure speed of National Treasure. That spells potential trouble for the closers, as there is nothing more dangerous than a Bob Baffert horse loose on the lead. And his jockey, John Velazquez, has already stolen two Kentucky Derbys for Baffert with Authentic and Medina Spirit.
Looking at National Treasure’s past performances, he has come from off the pace in all his stakes races, but twice he had to chase his stablemate Cave Rock, arguably the fastest 2-year-old in the country last year. What you won’t find in the past performances is the fact that on three occasions this year National Treasure worked in company with the speedy Reincarnate. All three times he was put on the lead and all three times he finished ahead of his stablemate, even refusing to let him go by on the gallop-out. And his last two works by himself were sensational, especially his six furlong drill in 1:11 1/5. So now with the rail and blinkers on and Baffert wanting nothing more than to knock off the Derby winner, you can be sure we will see a big effort from National Treasure. And Mage sure does not want to let him get too far in front.
As for the closers they most likely are running to pick up a piece of it unless something wild happens up front or we get an off track. All the experts I’ve seen have latched on to the Shug McGaughey-trained Perform based on his electrifying stretch run in the Federico Tesio Stakes, and all have dismissed Blazing Sevens because he could not sustain his run in the Blue Grass Stakes, finishing a well-beaten third. But looking deeper into that performance, he was coming off one race and that was an inexplicably bad effort in the Fountain of Youth Stakes in which he did no running at all at any point in the race. So basically he hadn’t had a race in five months, made a big move around the far turn and simply got tired in the stretch. Even with that he ran a “3” Thoro-Graph number, which equaled his career best number in his Champagne victory. Because of his drastic leap from a “15” in the Fountain of Youth to a “3,” trainer Chad Brown decided to skip the Derby and give him an extra two weeks. He’s been working lights out and I see no reason why he shouldn’t move forward offf that race and run well enough to finish in the first three.
So how about a shout out for Blazing Sevens and National Treasure; the two horses with back class at 2 who made it here from the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.
Red Route One has always been a horse for whom I have had high regard, but he will need a pace collapse to win. However, he will be running at the end.
The bottom line is that Mage appears to outclass this field, but we will see how he bounces back in two weeks, how he breaks, and how far he lets National Treasure get ahead of him. This doesn’t look like a get rich quick race, with First Mission a solid second choice and National Treasure and Perform likely to get bet down, so I would look to box Mage, First Mission, National Treasure, and Blazing Sevens, hoping the last named can sneak in there at a price. Or you can box Mage in the exactas with Blazing Sevens, Perform, and Red Route One, again looking for a price. But all in all this is not a great betting race, so why not just root for Mage and have a horse trying for the Triple Crown.
Racing historian, author, and award-winning retired journalist for the Daily Racing Form and The Blood-Horse, Steve Haskin was inducted into the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame’s Media Roll of Honor in 2016. Known for his racing knowledge and insightful prose, he has been an exclusive contributor to Secretariat.com since 2020.
Hey STEVE I just read your report from Thu 5-18 just saw it Tuesday at 2:30 am you nailed it talking all that good stuff about NATIONAL TREASURE and BLAZING SEVENS So how bout a shout out for Blazing Sevens and National Treasure. Great stuff again Steve I Love rubbing that stuff in to the fellows at the OTB in SHORELINE,WA. To anybody that trying to say that you don’t know what your talking about. JOE DERBY OUT. Only 50 more weeks til the KENTUCKY DERBY
It wasn’t long ago we were forced inside by a virus…..children lost two school years, elderly lost their lives, and now people that took the booster shots are suffering all kinds or odd maladies, during the lock downs HORSE RACING came through! Society broke crazy but Horse Racing came through—We live in times where a typical Chicago day has ten shooting murders, but the front and center headline is “A Horse Dies…”…
Now, I understand!!! Thx for posting: maga idiot!
Thank YOU for showing your hand, your REAL hand…..
Chicago has not a thing to do with horseracing; that’s what this site is for.
I’m ashamed that I have an addiction to horseracing. I’ve “quit” many times and never does my absence last more than a few weeks. I’m leaving it once more. The deflection to the media’s reporting is laughable. The media are describing what’s happening. Everyone here is too invested in the game/industry to see that horseracing is cruel, or they know it but repress their feelings.
Agree 100% I have very conflicted feelings about the industry now and have also quit here and there in the past. I don’t know what will happen in the future for US horse racing, but, for the first time in my life, I would be more than ok if it were eliminated completely here…the horses welfare is much more important…
I attended the LA County Fair, at Pomona and the old half mile non banked track, around 1979, on closing day . ..very hot and they couldn’t keep the track adequately watered—in 12 races there were 13 horse fatalities—-this was ONE DAY…..if you think Horse Racing hasn’t gotten BETTER…..then that time, where there were far more horse fatalities and horses had whipping scars, on their hips….then you do need to go, because you are no longer part of any solution, you emphasize the cup being half empty…..there has recently been two Del Mar Summer meets with zero horse deaths on the track, because THEY ARE TRYING…..
The fact that the sport was more harmful in the past doesn’t have anything to do with the state of the sport today: whether I support or not doesn’t make me part of the problem or solution. I don’t think you are making the point you think you are! You can go ahead and support or not: I wouldn’t be so presumptuous as to tell you what to do, and, of course, you have no right to tell me whether to stay or go!
I donated $500 to an aftercare program, I’ve done it for more than ten years, what did you do? Besides whine? What did YOU DO?…
I have donated more than you: what’s with the attitude?
You mean the “I would be more than OK for Horse Racing to eliminated” attitude?
Roberta, I would say most racing enthusiasts are like you, they are conflicted that the sport they adore also has a dark, cruel edge to it. I financially support aftercare programs as a means of absolving my guilt while adding voice/strength to various statements etc that are intent on improving horse racing around the world. Moreover, I have friends/relatives who have more clout than I so I nudge them as well.
It’s better to be in a battle fighting for good than walking away in frustration. We’d have made all the giant whales extinct by now if all people did was walk away saying whaling is so cruel instead of battling the whaling nations. Roberta, fight for the improvements in the sport you love don’t leave.
The story is in the headlines:
CHD sees 8th horse death as Rio Moon euthanized at home of Kentucky Derby
Preakness 2023: Worry over deaths pervades as horse racing turns it eyes to Baltimore
Another horse dies from catastrophic injury at Churchill Downs
As 148th Preakness approaches, a grim trend greets Maryland
Mage wins star-crossed Kentucky Derby amid 7th death
Why are so many racehorses dying?
Baffert back from ban, wins Preakness with National Treasure after another horse euthanized
Baffert wins Preakness with National Treasure; Havenameltdown euthanized
National Treasure wins Preakness hours after other Baffert horse euthanized
Baffert’s National Treasure wins Preakness as another horse death mars the sport
“What are these dark days I see?
In this world so badly bent
I cannot redeem the time
The time so idly spent
How much longer can it last?
How long can it go on?”
Lyrics from Bob Dylan’s “Crossing The Rubicon”
Rough and Rowdy album, released in 2020
Has horse racing in the United States and the modern American Thoroughbred both crossed the Rubicon?
Is stretching out the Triple Crown races to as long as 4 weeks apart the only solution to accommodate horses that need weeks to recover from one race?
If the answer is yes, then the Rubicon has been crossed and there is no going back.
How long can racing go on in America at this rate?
Has the fate of horse racing in the United States finally been sealed with greed for both speed and dollars?
If the answer is yes, then there are only dark days ahead for both the sport and the horses.
Good post , Lynda. I won’t delve into my concerns for the fate of racing or many other things, because i end up in a diatribe, but you also may enjoy Dylan’s “Not Dark Yet.” A little more personal, but same idea.
I am not an expert Lynda but perhaps some of the answers are hiding in plain view.
Horses being bred for speed, not for endurance. The use of drugs & other types of medications.
Thoroughbreds have relatively thin walls & sole around their feet. Perhaps all of the inbreeding has caught up to the modern times.
Mostly I believe it is the human factor. Lets get these kids on the race track, win a few million & off to the breeding shed.
I didn’t agree with all of your post Lynda but I do believe it was well said.
I think it a bit unfair and thus unfortunate….about your bundling up what are separate instances, Havingameltdown stumbled at the same time he wah bumped hard in front, a very fast horse that got a very rough break….we don’t know this was anything more than tragically bad luck, and his handlers were sincere, in their grief….not all horse deaths can be prevented, THATS what made this so tough..
Matthew W, I think you missed the point I was making.
These headlines were taken directly from news sites.
I did not make them up nor did I bundle them as you suggest.
These headlines are what non racing fans see in their newsfeeds.
CNN, Washington Post, NBC, MSNBC, Fox, ESPN NPR
The narrative here is being controlled by the media that for the most part is against horse racing.
Several of these outlets included graphic photos with their headlines.
The non racing public is not going to take the time to go below the surface to learn that a horse was bumped hard, stumbled and fractured an ankle…just the same that can happen to a human athlete.The human can undergo surgery to repair the ankle, be put in a vast, heal in a few months, undergo rehab and be good as new. They interpret a horse in a race as being forced to run by being whipped and jacked with drugs.
What do CNN, Washigton Post, NBC, MSNBC, and NPR have in common?
They’re not BB sycophants, unlike the NBC telecast crew. BTW, you left out Fox, as Lynda pointed out. Hmmm.
Organizations that give credibility to PETA, Horse Racing Wrongs, American Humane Society and other animal rights extremist groups.
Yes I know, Linda, I pass people with signs outside Santa Anita, I even talked with one gut who had a “No way to treat animals” sign, as he was eating a 40-pack of chicken nuggets….
Lynda, I agree with you. Besides the Churchill Downs racehorse deaths there were three deaths at the Keeneland spring meet or the 13 deaths already this year at Laurel.
But according to the Jockey Club’s Equine Injury Database ‘2022 was the lowest for racehorse deaths since they began keeping these statistics years ago and the last six months of 2022 was the safest six months on record’.
Racehorse deaths are down 35% in the mid Atlantic region after a cluster of deaths happened at Aqueduct in 2011, deaths are down 79% in Santa Anita from 2019-2022 and Pimilico deaths are down 85%.
Perhaps horseracing hasn’t crossed that ‘point of no return’. Yet, at least.
Yes John, racehorse deaths as the result of catastrophic skeletal breakdowns are trending down.
The Jockey Club starting tracking these deaths as I recall in 2009 and through 2022 there has been an across the board decrease of 4% based on racing starts.
The JC credits these decreases to improved safety on the race tracks and enhanced drug testing and vets clearing horses to race.
Some of these stats that are being reported from other sources include deaths from other causes such as sudden cardiac arrest, colics, diseases, laminitis, ruptures of the aorta and kissing spine.
Steve’s post discussed the possibility of tweaking the schedule of the triple crown races, which is certainly of the moment as the last horse to run in all three races was Preakness winner War of Will in 2019.
Even though it’s been the standard for decades, the five-week schedule hasn’t always been fixed in history (the Preakness used to precede the Derby — by a week — for many years before the 1930s. I’ve heard various suggestions on having a month between all three races, but I think that’s too much.
My suggestion: hold the Derby on the first Saturday in May, then hold the Preakness THREE weeks later, followed by the Belmont FOUR weeks later (late June). That places all three races in a seven-week period that could potentially be more rigorous than the current five-week span.
Commentator (s) on the the national broadcast suggested that the Derby held on the first Saturday in May, the Preakness the first Saturday in June and the Belmont the first Saturday in July yesterday.
Yes, whenever there is a classic race on NBC, that particular commentator finds it necessary to go on and on and on about his wish to reschedule the Triple Crown. Whether you agree or disagree, we’ve heard it many times before and it gets very tiresome. I’m glad Fox is doing the Belmont so hopefully we won’t have to put up with that again.
I see the tragic horse deaths and the Triple Crown as two totally different issues. Rescheduling the races wouldn’t have saved a single one of those horses. Only Wild on Ice was a classics contender, and he was preparing for the Derby, which nobody wants to move, anyway. Every effort must be made to find out why so many horses died and presumably there will be issues to address, but I don’t think the Triple Crown will be one of them.
As for the scheduling of the classics, I favor leaving things the way they are. A few years ago people were advocating change on the grounds that the Triple Crown had become impossible. Then American Pharoah and Justify proved them totally wrong. After that, COVID taught us what happens when you move races. The current schedule has served us well for many years, and I’d like it to continue for many more.
I personally disagree. They don’t race enough as it is. It is supposed to be hard for a reason. They would be better off in my opinion looking at the current point system. I think it could use some tweaking.
What is going to be of more concern right now is the number of horses that have died recently racing at these tracks. The Baffert colt yesterday was tragic, compounded by the jockey getting tossed and running loose. Haven’t heard how the jockey is. Not sure what else could have been done there. We are still waiting on results from Kentucky. This sport is in trouble.
Laura:
I wish there was something obvious to do to stop the deaths, but they are endemic in American racing. Two horses die every day at U.S. racetracks. That’s based on statistics from a report done several years ago. These recent deaths are on the radar because a couple of the horses were high-profile and the deaths occurred at high-profile tracks.
Plenty of horses are over raced (probably the majority of them), but not the elite ones. Where is the line between a truly competitive sport where the best of the best always step up to the plate and a sport where horse deaths are rare? I don’t have the answer.
You called it, Steve, just not in the order of finish: National Treasure, Blazing Sevens, Mage, and Red Route One.
I really like Blazing Sevens, he has a lot of tenacity.
I don’t know about the Derby winner, but the Preakness winner is heading for Elmont for The Belmont! Johnny V need outsider help to pull him up, yesterday…..
Outrider, my phone thinks it’s smart!..
Congrats to National Treasure, team Baffert and of course Johnny V. Actually, this now makes the second time that NT has finished ahead of Blazing Sevens…last November’s BC Juvenile…NT finished third while BS finished fourth.
Blazing Sevens was the better horse today, should have won. Going 2-3 paths wider all the way around was the difference.
He ran farther; therefore he ran faster. But with the outside post and the way the race shaped up, I don’t think it would have been feasible to go to the inside. I think he did what he had to do and did it well, but not quite well enough.
Thank the overrated IRAD!
I was cheering for Blazing Sevens, especially in the stretch, and I was proud of his performance. But I still was happy for Bob Baffert and John Velazquez. Velazquez deserves to have a Preakness in his resume, and there’s a certain poetic justice in Baffert’s winning the first Triple Crown race he was able to compete in after he was allowed to come back. My congratulations to both of them–and to National Treasure.
I for one am pleased to see Bob Baffert back where he belongs — back in the winner’s circle of a Triple Crown race. What a mix of emotions for him and his entire team today. To win one of the biggest races of the year and lose a Grade 2 stakes winner all on the same card.
Sorry Mage couldn’t repeat the magic, but I’m glad he won’t be under pressure to run again in three weeks in the Belmont.
Welcome back Bob! He’s the greatest modern trainer and not close to the 3 year old group. Last two years all other trainers had their chance. Good bye to them! Mr Baffert is unleashed,
I am also glad to see Baffert back. Next TC cycle will be very interesting with all the first rate young horses piling in his barn already.
The race unfolded as many of us expected and no one could do anything about it… JV had so much horse at the end that he was able to practically play with Irad in the final yard.
It seems like the two week lapse is indeed detrimental to the modern American Thoroughbreds… Mage lacked the final rush of before and looked like a very tired horse in the last furlong…
Velasquez was not “playing” at the end, he was all out to scratch out a win.
By “playing” I meant JV knew he had a lot of horse who could very well respond to his urging right when Irad thought he had the race won… perhaps play is not a good translation from the word in Spanish which means outsmarting someone.
They were both going all out in the final 20 yards, to my eyes, no jockey tactics at that point, although there was just before that, when V. took Ortiz out wide on the turn, and then Ortiz squeezed him towards the rail.
Correction: Johnnie V. went wide after the turn, in the stretch.
I agree. I believe his emotions were totally genuine. Bob used to be easy to hate, he was too cool, everything was too easy. Years and adversity have a way of humanizing most of us. Individuals are often better or worse than they are seen. In my opinion, Bob is the former.
Well National Treasure got it done. Mage seemed to run out of gas but held on for third.
Mage suffered a superficial cut above his right eye which required four stitches … He seems to be fine but I am afraid that any medication he might be receiving would appear as a millionth picogram trace in his blood and he will be disqualified after the Preakness… it is unlikely that this minor cut would affect his performance in the Preakness … who knows?
For a strange reason the movie War Horse popped in my mind as a reminder of how resilient and strong a horse can be…
Nelson, per a report I read, the State vet has cleared him to race.
He got the cut in his stall.
As a rule beyond a small amount of sedative so the area can be shaved, flushed out and stitched and a preventative antibiotic and perhaps a tetanus booster are the only meds given for or this procedure. Pain meds are not given for a cut of this size. You can see the small area over his eye that was shaved before being stitched.
Luckily he did cut his eye.
I have had horses get as many as 15-20 stitches and no pain meds were given.
Main thing is to keep area clean and dry, just like humans are told to do.
Thanks for the information Lynda… from the close up it does not seem any shaving around the wound… my point is that Mage’s team should be fully aware of all the medicines that are prohibited so as to avoid any infringement … the tolerance is almost zero for anything in the blood stream…
Hi, they said and showed staples on the broadcast. In the ER on humans we don’t even use lidocaine on less then 7 staples. It honestly is more painful to inject the numbing medication than to just do it t that point. I would doubt they used any since it wouldn’t be medically necessary.
I’ve had stitches and they always shot me up with lidocaine, you really don’t for less than seven???….heck I’d want lidocaine for ONE stitch!
Nasty spill in the Chick Lang today with Havnameltdown being euthanized. Luis Saez thrown hard and was taken by ambulance to the hospital. Let’s pause and say a prayer for Luis and hope that he’ll pull through okay.
Saw it, it was horrible. Prayers for Luis. Someone in that race had a go-pro on. I feel like that might have been distracting?
Just watched that race on tape delay. It was horrific. I knew I’d find out if the horse could be saved here rather than on Fanduel. What a shame. I hope Saez comes through OK.
This is why I can no longer watch live horse racing anymore.
So very, very sorry this happened. Condolences to the connections.
Prayers for Luis. Being reported he was conscious and talking but could not stand, possible leg injury, taken to hospital.
What a horrible Triple Crown season this has been so far.
3 year old filly Swanson Lake euthanized at CHD this afternoon after breaking down in Race 6.
Luis Saez cleared to ride, no serious injuries.
Oh no, not another one! Sad that Swanson Lake had to be put down. The racing gods have been cruel during this month of May.
Very glad to hear that Luis is okay…. that was a close call.
Cinderella always was your favorite date. Well, 2nd favorite anyway.
I realize I’m showing my south Florida bias once again, but I’d be rooting for MAGE even if he wasn’t based at Gulfstream. He’s the de facto Florida Derby winner, with Forte out of the Ky Derby and the Preakness. I hope he’s much closer to the early pace than he was in the Derby. Then there’s PERFORM who is trained by my all-time fave Shug McGaughey. Shug hasn’t had a Preakness starter in 10 years, and, as Nelson Maan noted, he is showing a lot of confidence by supplementing Perform. If you haven’t seen the Tesio, do it! An amazing come from behind win after a bad start and all sorts of trouble in the stretch, he still was able to get the final eighth in 12 2/5. He’s come to life in two-turn races. Big upset chance.
Thank you, Steve, for this well-reasoned analysis of the Preakness field — although everything changed dramatically when First Mission dropped out! Have a lovely weekend.
Though Mage may be the most likely winner, i am not confident he will repeat his derby performance. National Treasure is a threat, but offers no value. I will bet Performer. Though he has not run fast, he is visually very impressive, with plenty of upside. Shug is patient, and easily could have run in the Peter Pan as a Belmont prep, but here he is. Good enough for me.
Agree completely, Todd (see above). Though the race comes up well short of what a Preakness should be, there’s always drama.
I think Mage will break better and go just off the lead, maybe let National Treasure go ahead and then pass him on the turn. He seems like he’ll handle this field.
Steve, your analysis of the Preakness Stakes certainly makes the race more interesting than it appears to be. This is a Grade 3 race really which is very unfortunate for a Classic race. Hopefully, Mage wins the Preakness Stakes to make the Belmont Stakes twice as exciting in three weeks time.
The Irish 2,000 Guineas next Saturday at the Curragh looks a great race so that’s something to look forward to – Allez, Paddington. Meanwhile, Man City might just clinch their third Premiership in a row this weekend.
Good luck to all, especially Mage.
I really made it interesting? How did I do that? Lol.
Steve, perhaps you gave some colts a little more credence than I first considered so I’m actually looking forward to the race now with more interest.
Manchester City takes third English Premiership in a row without even playing; Arsenal lose at Nottingham Forest. City have won three Premierships in a row and five in the last 6 Premierships. Happy Days…
Rattle N Roll had to work hard to win the Pimlico Special over the very stubborn Speed Bias who attempted a wire to wire escapade over the 1 3/16 mile… the speed seems to be holding well at Pimlico today… at could be the same tomorrow.
As I look that replay over and over, I cannot but imagine National Treasure taking the role of Speed Bias and Mage in a vigorous final rush to pass the only solid speedster in the Preakness…
Yes, Nelson, but who ever heard of Speed Bias? I was just amazed Rattle N Roll held on to win the race. He was such a disappointment as a 3YO (not his fault, of course — he’s just a horse!). He reminds me of Red Route One, who is my longshot pick to win the Preakness. I was surprised and delighted that Taxed won the Black-Eyed Susan — my longshot picks don’t usually play out.
Good luck whom ever you pick, Nelson!
Thanks for your reply Ms Blacktype.
I had Taxed in my Tri but did not see the former 2-year-old prospect Hoosier Philly improving that much… that’s why I confirmed that the speed was holding. Just like Speed Bias the gray filly was close to win wire to wire the Black-Eyed Susan defeating the odds-on favorite Faiza in that attempt.
Good luck to you this weekend as well…!
I’ll never forget the 1973 Preakness, I was 14 and watched with my parents, and I also had received a tape recorder for my birthday, and taped the Belmont, and our comments throught the race— “C’mon out here, Pete!” (my brother)…”15 lengths, Pete!”…..Chic Anderson saying “Its almost a match race now” and my mother saying “A MATCH race!”….I knew this was something special, we saw Sham at Santa Anita, a New York horse that cleaned house, in the Santa Anita Derby, but Secretariat was a different animal…..when he lost badly, in the Wood Memorial, questions arose, about his breeding—by a miler—who KNEW that would soon become the common path to Triple Crown success! But what a Triple Crown! Nothing like it EVER…..Time, Newsweek, Sports Illustrated covers BEFORE that Belmont—“Superhorse”…..indeed.
Steve the No Alibi Preakness breakfast was half empty….
Yeah I read that. Very sad. They used to be fun. But no horses means no trainers
Some trainers could have shown up (or sent representatives) but couldn’t be bothered. Pathetic!
I’ll try to hit the Black-eyed Susan-Derby double with what’s turned into kind of a cheap ticket in this Year of the Strawberry — Taxed, whose job got easier with the scratch of the speedy Miracle, and Merlazza with Faiza along with a couple in the Derby, in which First Mission will not be participating. Hey, if we have any more scratches maybe they can run the Preakness as a walkover.
I like Red Route One as a horse with character and another yearling sales pick for me but the scratches do not necessarily benefit him.
Nice! Good luck!!
With the second choice First Mission now out you wonder what the ml odds will be on Mage.
I cant beelieve he’s 9-5 and Chase the Chaos is 7-1. ML 50-1 Longest price is 8-1. Crazy.
First Mission out of Preakness.
Hindquarters issue. Going to R&R for evaluation.
Hope it is nothing serious.
I would bet Mage to win the Preak, but I’m in Japan, can’t use my tvg account. Trying to squeeze Tokyo Racecourse into the itinerary. If anyone has been and has some tips for a visit there, please share.
First Mission, I believe Brad Cox lets you know if his horse is going to run big and I don’t see that in any of his interviews.
National Treasure, should try to wire this field but I think he needs to improve two fold to take them all the way, may be a race away from that kind of performance.
Mage, he went so wide coming into the stretch, was on the lead or very close to it at 1 3/16 and just kept increasing his power the next quarter, so I think he’s got a big gas tank right now. And his coat is absolutely brilliant post derby. Not the kind of favorite you want to bet against imo.
Sure liked your perspective on this. You always make good points when you analyze these big races. On paper, Mage looks like an easy winner. He is obviously coming into his own & will probably be even money or less. No sure thing in horse racing though. These other Preakness horses don’t compare to what ran in the Derby. Probably one reason why none of them ran in the Derby.
For me, Mage looks like a winner with First Mission second & Blazing Sevens third. I don’t like the fact that National Treasure has had little racing preparation.
It is a shame that the second jewel of the Triple Crown has such a mediocre field.
Echoing what other bloggers have said, such is racing these days.
Can you imagine if the past winners of the Masters golf at Augusta did not attend the championship dinner.
However the Belmont field should be formidable. Right now I really Tapit Trice.\
Good fortune for everyone.
Its even morre mediocre now.
Two Phil’s was, in theory, the best candidate to win the Preakness, but I suspect he was so worn out after his titanic effort in the Derby that coming back in two weeks was simply not reasonable. If that is the case, it is not likely to see Two Phil’s in the Belmont Stakes either. I just hope the son of Hard Spun is able to recover and be a factor in the Jim Dandy and/or Travers at Saratoga or in any other important Stakes by year end.
There is no Derby horse challenging Mage in the second leg of the TC series, but still there are some heavy hitters trying to prevent the Venezuelan flagbearer from seeking the glory of the Triple Crown. Gustavo Delgado will have to contend with Mr. Triple Crown Bob Baffert, two-time Preakness winner, Chad Brown, the powerhouse in Godolphin and its star trainer Brad Cox, the winningest trainer in Steven Asmussen; and, as if this formidable contingent is not enough, he has Shug McGaughey brimming with confidence with another new comer (also) son of Good Magic named Peformer.
The stats of Derby winners in the Preakness somehow favor Mage. Between 1980 and 2022 (43 years) 37 Derby winners ran in the Preakness. Their tally is 14 wins (38%), 10 placings (27%), 4 thirds (11%), 1 fourth (2.7%), 2 fifths (5.4%) and 6 sixths places (16%).
However, if you dig deeper, you can see that the Derby winners who won the Roses closing from far behind are not that favored in the Preakness.
The fourteen successful closers in the Derby show the following stats in the Preakness:
2 wins (14%), 6 seconds (43%), 1 third (7%), 1 fourth (7%), 2 fifths (14%) and 2 sixths (14%).
The only closers with Derby-Preakness double were Pleasant Colony and Alysheba. Disclaimer: the latter, despite making up 12 lengths in the first quarter of the Derby, is not considered a deep closer in the style of Monarchos or Giacomo for instance.
By the way Mage’s trip in the Derby is almost a carbon copy of that delivered by Chris Antley with Strike the Gold in 1991…
One fact in favor of Mage though is that 10 out of 12 Preakness with victorious Derby closers (again since 1980) were won by Derby favorites or Derby runners. The only two new shooters who defeated the Derby winner in the Preakness were Red Bullet (2000) and Rachel Alexandra (2009).
The lack of Derby horses in the Preakness may mean that Mage is facing a less strong field there.
But, what is the Preakness offering in terms of Stakes quality horses?
National Treasure, who arguably was the third best 2-year-old, is not only on top form but he will be advantageously running by the rail and with the artful Johnny V piloting he could very well get away with relatively soft fractions.
Blazing Sevens is responding beautifully to the training plan plotted by Chad Brown. As Steve reminded us, the Champagne winner and National Treasure are the two horses emerging from the BC Juvenile.
That should mean something specially if they are challenging two morning line favorites who did not run as 2-year-old … or may not?
Perform was defeated by Mage by 5 lengths three races back but the way he has improved in two-turn races, specially his Federico Tesio win, gave Shug McGaughey and owners the confidence to pay a $150,000-supplement to run this Saturday.
First Mission is, on paper, the most difficult hurdle for Mage who will need a perfectly timed ride by Javier Castellano to win at Pimlico. At least he can count on Mage’s inherent speed to handle the particular challenges of Pimlico’s layout… in my mind Mage is not a deep closer at all but if you let him relax too much early you might be left with too much to do in the homestretch.
The Preakness is indeed not a good betting race but a good story would be a Good Magic trifecta … not only a farfetched idea but one that could yield better payouts.
Imagine if the Delgados inspired by Canonero II let Mage engage in a match from the start with National Treasure just like the Venezuelan Cannonball did in 1971 in a historic fight with Eastern Fleet.
That 1971 Preakness was one of the most thrilling Preakness ever…!
Good work, Nelson. I hope Mage wins for Venezuela.
Thanks Davids. The sport needs Mage to go to Belmont in a historic bid for the Triple Crown…
The fun and enjoyment starts early tomorrow morning (8:35 am local time) with Modern Games trying to find his winning ways in the Al Shaqab Lockinge Stakes at Newbury.
Many believe that the Juddmonte’s filly Laurel [Kingman – Promising Lead by Danehill (USA), GB] with Dettori up is ready to defeat the Godolphin champion.
My Prospero and Mutasaabeq may have different ideas about who will be the best in that mile contest tomorrow…
Yes Nelson, the Lockinge Stakes is a fascinating race. The race does seem between Modern Games and Laurel but the mercurial Oisin Murphy could cause an upset with the recently gelded Berkshire Shadow. Murphy has been on fire since his return. Extremely gifted jockey.
Mind you, half a dozen wouldn’t surprise.
Fingers crossed for Mage, as you say, the sport needs him to win.
Nice tip on Berkshire Shadow who finished third at 40 to 1… the place of Chindit surprised me though.
Modern Games ought to be one of the best milers of the last decade…
Good win by Modern Games, did you catch the nip by Chindit? I think Oisin Murphy put 5 lengths on a mount so I thought Berkshire Shadow would place. It’s unfortunate for Modern Games that he’s in the shadow of Baaeed otherwise his reputation would be higher.
Great stuff, Nelson Maan.
Interesting opinion article on blood horse concerning the traditional Preakness Alibi Breakfast. Brad Cox, Steve Assmussen, and Chad Brown could not be bothered to attend this onced cherished part of Preakness week, nor did anyone associated with those stables. Shug McGaugey did attend; no mention of Baffert. This is just another nail in the coffin of racing’s traditions. To these huge conglomerate stables, the Preakness is just another chance to increase the stud value of just another of their cookie cutter horses. If they don’t care, why should we.
There might be a reason why Cox didn’t show up.
You are right. I guess a little case of late night shoot first, aim later on my part.
Yep there was a rumor and I knew it was true when he didnt show up.
Todd, rumors were out there but I did not say anything.
Joseph Saffie being asked to remove his horses from Belmont Park was not true but a certain horse racing site put the story out there based on “reliable sources”.
Don’t feel bad Todd. There are a lot of eyes and ears on the ground out there who put rumors put there. One “trainer” called it that Forte was going to be scratched and seemed to profess knowledge that ot was going to happen before Todd even knew supposedly.
I have done the same thing but every time read something now, I try to remind myself to just be quiet until an official source makes an announcement. That is what I did this morning about First Mission scratching. I kept quiet until the tweet came over early t hus morning from Blood Horse.
Also why I asked about National Treasure. Both Steve and Jeff answered with a perfectly logical explanation that I had not considered.
Thanks Steve for this outlook on the Preakness. Just looking backwards in time to others and his own pedigree I think with this smaller field Mage will win though it will be a tight finish with NT right there. If he doesn’t pull it off won’t be shocked either. We find out Saturday.
I’m thinking a Mage/National Treasure exacta box, and if NT stays 4-1 I’ll play a win bet….I agree Steve, looks like the speed….
But rooting for Mage!…..
National Treasure works recently…May 12th 47.40 (1/31)…May 6th 1.11.2 (1/4)
And he looked awesome in both of them.
Baffert having a horse like National Treasure in this race makes it untouchable for me. I am rooting for Mage so we have a chance at a Triple Crown, but this is the kind of race Baffert tends to win.
He won’t get the distance, my guess is he’s a miler.
Thank for the perspective on the Preakness. I will of course be cheering for Mage to win.
He looks really good physically, in my opinion.
Watched one work and that was National Treasure. Certainly not denying Baffert’s horses being prepared to run and run well. However I do have a question and an observation. Do you know why he did not put in a work for almost a month back in March (per Equibase). As to my observation and granted this was one brief gallop at Pimlico, he seemed off to me in the hindquarters. May be something, may be nothing, may just be his running style.
One more little mention and that is the story about Pimlico Barney. Read Steve Byk’s story about him on his webpage. Did you ever meet him?
Well, good luck everyone, safe races for all and hooves crossed for no drama. Doubt I will watch but will be following the race results on Saturday and of course replays.
Condolences to Godolphin for the loss of Creative Force.
Sore foot that kept him out of the San Felipe and bad tracks that canceled training several mornings?
Thank you. That would explain that long period between works.
So Cal was swamped with so much rain and snow. Historic rain levels. Conditioning for west coast horses would’ve been leaning towards being short for distance. I think NT can flat out win if in shape. And watching the workout video he will run strong. Is it good enough to beat Mage?
Also, NT in previous races seem to run in spots only in his races. Hopefully he’s matured and blinkers assist with him focusing.
Thank you Jeff.