Bad Hare Day for Classic and Overlays to Watch
There are so many elements to this year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic that we felt it was best to address them now, as well as several of the participants to watch not named Sovereignty to demonstrate just what a compelling race this is. But first let’s take a look at one horse who has become a controversial figure and who all eyes will be on as soon as the gates open. ~ Steve Haskin
Bad Hare Day for Classic and Overlays to Watch
By Steve Haskin
It seems the way many are talking, racing fans and bettors have as much disdain for “rabbits” as Elmer Fudd has for Bugs Bunny.
Oh, those poor underappreciated sacrificial lambs who are deemed incapable of performing at high levels and have been relegated to assisting others more talented.
We are of course referring to racing’s most infamous “rabbit” Contrary Thinking, who once again will attempt to prevent his far more illustrious stablemate Sierra Leone from falling victim to a classy lone speed horse and/or a lethargic pace that could compromise his chances in the Breeders’ Cup Classic.
But that begs the question, is running Contrary Thinking really necessary? And while we are asking questions, what exactly is a rabbit and how do you differentiate rabbits from pacesetters, who are an integral part of the Ballydoyle/ Coolmore operation. Are they two separate entities or is pacesetter merely a euphemism for rabbit, which is usually construed as using one inferior horse to target another horse who is dangerous on the lead. Pacesetter sounds more benign and denotes a horse who is entered to simply assure a legitimate pace for their late-closing stablemate.
To put it in simpler terms, let’s just say that in the 1967 Woodward Stakes, called the Race of the Century at the time, you could call Hedevar and Great Power, two fast horses, rabbits who were put in the race strictly to force Dr. Fager into suicidal fractions because The Doc on an uncontested lead was as close to being unbeatable as any horse in history. When Dr. Fager’s trainer John Nerud was on the opposite end and ran Bold Nero in the 1957 Belmont Stakes to soften up the brilliant Preakness winner Bold Ruler for Gallant Man it resulted in a stakes and track record for Gallant Man that lasted until Secretariat shattered it in 1973. Those were two examples of a rabbit.
However, when trainer Eddie Neloy ran several fast sprinters as entrymates with the late-closing Buckpasser 13 times he was merely assuring an honest pace for his champion, who was known for his close finishes. Neloy was not targeting any one horse. They would be considered more as pacesetters. And by the way, Buckpasser won 10 of those 13 races, and in two of his defeats he was beaten by his own pacesetter, once going seven furlongs on dirt and once going 1 5/8 miles on grass. So was Buckpasser so dependent on a pacesetter or was his trainer the dependent one, feeling compelled to help his horse regardless of the distance, surface, and competition?
When it comes to the term rabbit or pacesetter, are we dealing in a case of semantics? Before we consider Contrary Thinking a pariah, heed the words of Richard Adams, author of Watership Down: “Rabbits need dignity and above all the will to accept their fate.”
In the case of Contrary Thinking, a regally bred son of Into Mischief, out of a Curlin mare, he was minding his own business and appeared to be an improving colt for Chad Brown and Klaravich Stable this year, easily winning an allowance race wire-to-wire at Aqueduct on June 29 by almost four lengths after stretching out from sprints to a mile, while covering the distance in a sharp 1:35 1/5. Unfortunately for him, the day before his race, Sierra Leone was beaten in the Stephen Foster Stakes by Mindframe, who stalked a moderate pace in second, forcing Sierra Leone to race closer to the pace than he likes. He made his usual late run, but fell a length short of catching Mindframe.
That pretty much changed the entire course of Contrary Thinking’s career and he now had to accept his new fate, even at the cost of his dignity. Not wanting Sierra Leone to continue being so pace dependent, which compromised his chances in several important stakes, Brown and Peter Brant, who is a partner in Sierra Leone, saw a way out of this dilemma and the next thing you knew, Contrary Thinking was owned by Brant and destined for a new role in life.
Instead of moving up in class gradually following his impressive allowance score he was thrown into the Whitney Stakes, where everyone knew what his purpose was. But no one told him. Despite being hustled out of the gate, he was outrun and dropped back to sixth before having to go five-wide into the first turn. That’s when he was asked to do his impersonation of Secretariat on the first turn of the Preakness. In the blink of an eye he was battling for the lead and no doubt wondering what was going on.
As for the rest of the field, especially Sierra Leone’s longtime adversary Fierceness, no one paid attention to these 70-1 and 53-1 shots eyeballing each other some seven lengths ahead of Fierceness and Highland Falls. But at least it allowed Sierra Leone to lumber along at the back of the pack and then use his explosive turn of foot. Contrary Thinking called it a day on the far turn and was already being eased by the time they turned for home. Sierra Leone, as we know, came rolling along in the stretch to beat Highland Falls by a length. Fierceness inexplicably faded in the stretch, but did Contrary Thinking really play any role in the outcome of this race or was Fierceness just having one of his head-scratching days (more on that later)?
The next collaboration between Sierra Leone and Contrary Thinking was in The Jockey Club Gold Cup, with Mindframe now the horse to beat. But as we all know, that race was a disaster from the start. Many blame Contrary Thinking for coming in and causing the wild and frightening incident involving Mindframe, who unseated rider Irad Ortiz and ran loose the rest of the way. But it was actually Phileas Fogg who came darting in from the far outside and intimidated Contrary Thinking and his jockey, who tried to avoid getting running into. Sierra Leone had to swerve sharply and leap over Ortiz to avoid stepping on him. This time Contrary Thinking did open a big lead before his retreat, but again no one paid any atention to him. Sierra Leone ran a huge race under the circumstances to finish second to Mindframe’s stablemate Antiquarian.
So now we come to the Breeders’ Cup Classic, and once again Contrary Thinking is back in the picture, showing up in the pre-entries, with many actually wanting him banned from running, for which there is no basis. This is a strategic tactic that goes back many years and has always been part of the game. It just depends on how it affects you as a fan or a bettor. You may hate the stategy one day and love it the next day, depending on whether it helps or hurts your horse.
As a pure objective observer who just wants to see an exciting race, are you going to remember American Pharoah, Knicks Go, Authentic, Black Tie Affair, and Bayern waltzing around the track on the lead unchallenged at any point or are you more likely to remember Arrogate, Tiznow, Flightline, Cigar, Sunday Silence, and Alysheba sitting back off the pace and showing their versatility and even their greatness?
Now that we have discussed the terms rabbit and pacesetter, provided a brief history of their role in the sport, and given the background of the often maligned Contrary Thinking, who must be wondering what the heck happened to his once-promising career, let’s turn our attention to this year’s Classic. Sierra Leone should benefit from the strong pace that likely will be set by his stablemate, but it could also benefit the two Mike Repole colts, Fierceness and Mindframe, who would have an easy target and be the ones to catch in the stretch, making both all the more dangerous, especially on their best day.
And remember, Sierra Leone, no matter what the pace is, will still have the late-running 3-year-olds Sovereignty, Journalism, and Baeza to deal with, as they all will be coming at the same time and seeking the same path.
But next is our reasoning why Contrary Thinking’s presence will have little or no effect on Fierceness and Mindframe, and also why there will be some enticing overlays in the Classic.
Nothing Contrary about Fierceness and Mindframe
The perfect trip for both Fierceness and Mindframe is to sit just off the pace and have a target. Both are fast with tremendous cruising speed and will go at their own comfortable speed regardless of how many lengths behind they are. That is why you have seen Fierceness one or two lengths off the lead and also seven lengths back. He just maintains that high cruising speed.
One point that might have been overlooked when studying his record is the fact that he has never been beaten when he’s had the lead at the eighth pole. He is seven-for-seven when he has the lead and 0-for six when he doesn’t. So if he’s on his game and he’s still in front with a furlong remaining, good luck trying to catch him. But how do we know when he’s on his game? Well, it might not be due to his temperament and unpredictability on any given day as many believe. Whether it’s a coincidence or not, but his inexplicable defeats have one thing in common. They were all on slow surfaces, which he apparently does not handle as well as he does a fast surface that he can skip over.
On Whitney day, the Grade 1 Test Stakes was run in 1:23. Only two runnings of the race have been run slower in the past 12 years. The same day, the Saratoga Special, with two fast juveniles coming off brilliant victories, was run in a pedestrian 1:18 for the 6 1/2 furlongs. Later in the day, Ted Noffey, now the big favorite for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, broke his maiden in 1:17 2/5. I doubt he’ll ever run that slow again.
In the Met Mile, in which Fierceness was a non threatening second over a sloppy sealed track, the race was run in 1:35 4/5, the slowest running since 2008 and the third slowest in 68 years. In the Holy Bull, in which he was upset by the unlikely Hades, the track variant that day was an extremely slow “19” after sloth-like fractions :50 2/5 and 1:14 1/5 and a final time of 1:46 for the 1 1/16 miles. The average time for this race is 1:42 and change. In his his next race, the Florida Derby, over the same Gulfstream track, he won by 13 1/2 lengths with Hades finishing far back, and the track variant that day was a “7” with his Beyer figure shooting up from an 84 to a 110. Finally, in the Champagne Stakes, he was going right from a spectacular maiden romp at six furlongs in his career debut to a Grade 1 mile race run over a sloppy track and he had a terrible start. As for his no show in the Kentucky Derby, I never hold that bad a race under those conditions against a horse I know is excepetional. I’ve seen too many top horses run up the track in the Derby. So when he runs a monster “negative 3 1/2” Thoro-Graph number in the race before, plummets to a “12 3/4” in the Derby, then needs almost three months off and returns with a “negative-1” I just toss the Derby completely.
So is it possible he’s not the occasional head case many believe him to be? We do know one thing, over that tight speed-favoring track at Del Mar he has run two of the best races of his career. So, don’t worry about about rabbits or track condition.
As for Mindframe, there is no way of knowing how he will handle not having a real race since June 28, but we also don’t know just how good this horse is as a mature 4-year-old compared to his 3-year-old campaign when he was thrown intro the Belmont Stakes off two career starts and looked like a winner at the head of the stretch before drifting way out to the middle of the track and losing all his momentum and still getting beat by only a half-length by a tough seasoned Dornoch. He again finished second to Dornoch over a very slow Monmouth Park surface that resulted in a “20” track variant, and he stumbled badly coming out of the gate and was also bumped hard by the outside horse. Despite racing greenly early through sluggish fractions of :48 and 1:12, going wide into and out of the turn, and ducking in from the crop in the stretch, he still was beaten only 1 1/2 lengths.
This year, coming off a 7 1/2-length layoff, he demonstrated his remarkable versatility by tracking the pace in the Gulfstream Mile and drawing off to a comfortable score, then rallying from eighth way out in the middle of the track to win the seven-furlong Churchill Downs Stakes in the slop, defeating the brilliant Nysos, likely favorite for the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile; Book’em Danno, arguably the top sprinter in the country; Mullikin, winner of the Grade 1 Forego Stakes, second in the Cigar Mile, and third in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint; and the hard-knocking muiltiple stakes winner Banishing.
Then, stretching back out to 1 1/8 miles, he defeated Sierra Leone in the Grade 1 Stephen Foster, running his last three-eighths in a sensational :35 4/5 and last five-eighths in an equally brilliant :59 3/5, his Beyer figure jumping from a 99 to a 105. And for all intents and purposes, that’s the last we’ve seen of him.
If you watch some of the races of Fierceness and Mindframe when he’s wearing the Mike Repole silks, it’s difficult telling them apart. Same color, usually in the same spot. And one other note on the Pletcher trio, his third horse Antiquarian, who is just now finding his best stride and also has a victory over Sierra Leone, has pretty much the same running style as his two stablemates, so Pletcher should hardly have to move his binoculars following all three. He just has to hope they don’t get in each other’s way.
Still Young at Heart
As the song goes, “For as rich as you are it’s much better by far to be young at heart.” Forever Young, who seems like an old friend by now, is both rich and young at heart. You have to be to travel over 48,000 miles between the Far East, Middle East, and West as if on a whistle-stop tour. Having already finished in the money in the Kentucky Derby and Breeders’ Cup Classic, he is back again and could very well be more dangerous than ever if he can finally get the ideal trip, which means not get creamed coming out of the gate as in the Derby and not getting involved in a bumper car scuffle and shoving match with a big brute like Sierra Leone the entire length of the stretch, only to fall two noses short at the wire.
It also means not getting pinned down on the rail and pressing a brutal pace as he did in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic and then changing leads late and drifting out badly in midstretch. But it is those incidents that can win him this year’s Classic, if his connections learn from them. The Derby was a freak race for him and we will never see anything like we saw in the stretch. But he, or at least his jockey, should learn from last year’s Classic. This horse wants to be on the outside and sit in a comfortable position where he can adjust to any pace and place himself accordingly. Because he has shown a tendency to get out in the stretch it would be ideal if his rider can refrain from hitting him left-handed, as he has done, and instead try to focus on getting him to change leads earlier.
The reason I give him a big shot in the Classic is that despite all the things that went against him in last year’s Classic, from the trip, being no more than a length behind Fierceness through that insane (if true) :44 4/5 half, changing leads way too late, and drifting out at a critical time and losing valuable momentum, he still was able to level off late and close with good energy to finish third, beaten less than three lengths and 1 1/2 lengths behind Fierceness. Running that fast early and having so many things go wrong, he shouldn’t have been able to muster up a late closing punch. But the fact that he did, along with his gutsy performance in the Kentucky Derby, shows he is more than capable of beating these horses if he is allowed to run to the best of his ability.
We have seen what a powerful and determined stretch runner he is and we have seen his tenacity when he gets in a fight. And if you have any concerns about his lackluster third in the Dubai World Cup, he wasn’t himself mentally that day according to reports and even though he was making up some ground late he had his ears up, and when he digs down to catch another horse, as he did with Book’em Danno and River Warrior, he is on a mission and those ears are back.
I have no idea how he stacks up against the 3-year-olds, but from everything I’ve seen he will always be a force to deal with regarless of who he is running against. Oh, yes, guess who has the fastest Thoro-Graph number in the Classic field? Yep, good old reliable Forever Young with a monster negative-5 1/2 in the Saudi Cup. Just keep a close eye on his odds to see where the value is. He is the one horse you don’t want to beat you.
A potential 3-Year-Old Overlay? Think “B” as in Beware
We could be looking at a potential huge overlay with Baeza. Sure he hasn’t been able to beat Sovereignty and Journalism, but that was then and this is now, and that means that Baeza, being a very late May 13 foal, was thrown into the fire against Journalism off a maiden win and then right into the Kentucky Derby at the last minute and had to break from the far outside 19 post. Considering he was still a baby, physically and mentally, and still came flying late to finish third, just missing by a neck of catching Journalism for second, everyone around him felt it was just a matter of time before he caught up to the others.
In the Belmont, he encountered severe kickback and returned covered head to toe with dirt, but still managed to finish third again behind Sovereignty and Journalism. The time off following the Belmont allowed him to mature and he returned with a terrific performance to finish second, beaten only a length by Sovereignty, who did have to work a bit to shake free from him in the final sixteenth.
Trainer John John Shirreffs said the goal was to get him to make the last move, and we saw what he could do with that strategy in the Pennsylvania Derby when he made a powerful move from seventh to first and drew off with ease to win by 2 1/2 lengths in 1:48 for the 1 1/8 miles, fastest time in the past 10 years. Far behind him in sixth was Gosger, who had been beaten a half-length by Journalism in the Preakness and Haskell.
To demonstrate the progress Baeza has made, his Thoro-Graph numbers were fast and steady from the Santa Anita Derby to the Belmont. He then came back from his mini vacation to equal his career best number of “zero” in the Jim Dandy before jumping to a negative-2 in the Pennsylvania Derby. One more forward move and he is right there with the fastest horses. And for the Beyer pundits, with the exception of the Belmont when he went from a 102 to 100, his Beyer figs have improved every race of his career, and his 105 at Parx equaled the career highs of Journalism and Mindframe.
So, we have gone from Sierra Leone and his so-called rabbit to the strategies and similar running styles of the Pletcher trio to a couple of potential overlays who could be sitting on a huge race. It all may be moot if Sovereignty is the super horse many are making him out to be. I have always maintained that if you have an exceptional crop of older horses they have an advantage over the 3-year-olds, except, as we said, if there is a 3-year-old who is a generational talent.
Almost half of the 3-year-olds who have won the Classic are in the Hall of Fame — Arrogate, American Pharoah, Curlin, Tiznow, A.P. Indy, and Sunday Silence. The others, including Sierra Leone, Authentic, Bayern, Cat Thief, Unbridled, and Concern, won when there was a mediocre group of older horses. And Raven’s Pass won on a synthetic track. Many felt Bernardini was a sure thing in 2006, but he ran into the 5-year-old future Hall of Famer Invasor. Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner Alysheba looked ready to put a stamp on a great 3-year-old campaign in 1987, but couldn’t catch the previous year’s Derby winner Ferdinand. He had to wait until the following year’s Classic when he clinched Horse of the Year by knocking off the top 3-year-olds Forty Niner and Seeking the Gold.
This year we have can exceptional group of older horses, including the first three finishers from last year’s Classic, as well as the brilliant Mindframe and the improving Jockey Club Gold Cup winner Antiquarian. Will Sovereignty put himself on the above list of future Hall of Famers? Journalism and Baeza are not that far behind him and we’ll see where the lightly raced Nevada Beach fits and how bright a future he may have.
Until then, we return to poor old Contrary Thinking and try to predict what, if any, impact he will have on the Classic. If he could talk he probably would be uttering those famous lines from an another rabbit: “I’m late, I’m late for a very important date…I run and then I hop, hop, hop, I wish that I could fly.” Sierra Leone wishes so too.
Racing historian, author, and award-winning retired journalist for the Daily Racing Form and The Blood-Horse, Steve Haskin was inducted into the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame’s Media Roll of Honor in 2016. Known for his racing knowledge and insightful prose, he has been an exclusive contributor to Secretariat.com since 2020.
Hypothetical: What if, just what if Contrary Thinking turns out to love De Mar and is still with them at the end, with a real chance to win? Will he truly be ridden accordingly, especially if the preferred gladiator is coming out of the clouds? And what if SL is not making his run? I hope I just have my tinfoil hat on, but this looks dirty and stands to look dirtier depending on how it plays. My interest in the main event is waning significantly.
Boo, and not the fun Halloween kind.
I don’t like the use of rabbits in general because you are conceding that you could not beat your competition one on one. The speed horse is inherently better if you can’t beat him straight up. What troubles me about this case is that a decent horse like Contrary Thinking is being abused. What will Brant and Brown do with him when he is no longer useful? Probably drop him down the claiming ladder into oblivion.
.That’s my attitude as well, Todd. I don’t mind pacemakers in Europe, ie. providing a target/pace for the superior runner to run into, as long as they don’t interfere in other horses’ chance of success by getting in the way when falling back etc.
Rabbits in the US inevitably are used as weapons to spoil/ruin, yes ruin, the chances of the more brilliant runners while helping the closers to get ‘closer’ to the speed horses. Always looks like cheating to me.
Imagine being at Wimbledon and having someone in the crowd deliberately upsetting one of the players, by making a noise etc, every time the same player was about to serve. That person making the noise would quickly be ejected from the stand. Isn’t it about time rabbits were ejected from US racing.
Bingo. I hate this.
Todd, you’re the only individual making case regarding placing CT in the race is abusive. Bravo!!
Thanks Steve. Will you be posting picks for the entire card. We need another Valponi !
Bless you Scott for remembering my shining moment. No Volponis this year but something coming shortly.
With my plans changed for the evening and having a little time thought I would give my evaluation of the Juvenile Dirt race this Friday. The two favorites , Brant and Ted Noffey , both look daunting with there undefeated records on the line. I was glad to see Civil Liberty (scratched) and Desert Gate (not entered) as I think both need time to mature more.
After reviewing all the races that I could and looking at the workouts of each of the horses in this race I am going to give the edge to Brant even though he has not raced around two turns yet and not raced in 2 months.
I have come to this conclusion based on the times of his races , his workouts and comments Flavien Prat made to Baffert after his win in the Del Mar Futurity when he said he saw no problem this horse going a distances I just think he is faster than all the other horses in the race and has 2 wins at the track.
My next two horse are really close and they are Ted Noffey (TN) and Blackout Time (BT). Now I know TN just beat BT in the Kentucky Breeders Futurity ( I did not think fractions or time of the race was anything exceptional) but if you look at the stretch run of that race BT was matching TN stride for stride TN just got the jump on him just before the stretch. Torres on BT gave him sort of a strange ride. Now he get a new jockey in Irad Ortiz Jr. I wish it was J Ortiz as Irad rides for Pletcher…. get my drift ( grassy knoll conspiracy theory )
I saw Blackout Time on the track this morning at Del Mar and he looked absolutely stunning and has a very fluid stride….. Mc Peek is very high on him.
Next and also a very good horse is Intrepido who I rate just under the top 3..
From a betting angle I am looking to play a trifecta key
# 1 … Brant
# 2 … Ted Noffey , Blackout Time, Intrepido
# 3 … All horses except Brant
One other thing that is interesting is the training methods for the 2 hall of famer’s Baffert and Pletcher with their horse. Brant last 3 works all 6 furlongs in 1:12 or better.
Pletcher on the other hand all 4 furlongs 48 to 49 seconds…. which is his usual work pattern.
Well those are my thought for the Juvenile Dirt. Good luck to all out there.
Steve, thanks again for your coverage of the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Such a shame Sovereignty is out but he wasn’t my pick although I expected him to run well, nonetheless.
Chad Brown started musing about using a rabbit when Sierra Leone lost the New Orleans Classic in March this year. After all that happened in the Jockey Club Gold Cup I can’t believe ‘they’ are allowing him to run the rabbit in the Classic.
I am hoping that Scylla in the Distaff and Parchment Party in the Melbourne Cup can win for Bill Mott. The racing gods are pretty fickle though. Good luck everyone and safety being the ultimate prize.
Does anyone know if the Breeders’ Cup intend to release a printable card of both days on their website. They usually have them up by now. Thanks.
For me,undecided on FY and Baeza.
I think its. Baeza…great trainer and Baeza seems to be a late bloomer trending upward. Nice value too.
Forever Young? Despite the great race he ran in Ky derby, he seems to be just a notch below the others.
I like SL best of all.
Good insights Dominic!
Steve,
Great article on rabbit / pacesetter and explaining the use of each. I am glad you stayed neutral on the use of a “rabbit” and also pointing out in the Jockey Gold Cup it was Phileas Fogg who was the real culprit in that race and not Contrary Thinking.
With the unfortunate scratching of Sovereignty the Classic becomes a very interesting race possibly brings a few more horses into play.
I Will brake down my picks later in the week on some of the races mainly the Classic, Dirt Mile, and the Juvenile dirt.
Steve will you be giving some of your insight on other races on BC day?
Not a lot. Ill have something tomorrow but very condensed. To be honest these races are too wide open and confusing to offer a strong opinion on. I’ve barely handicapped them.
I concur!!! On Friday besides the Juv Dirt will probably do the Juv turf. Saturday will probably handicap 4 or 5. Only. Thanks for trying though.
My preferred non-favorites I will ve using:
Juvenile Turf: Outfielder; due to Gstaad in pp #14
Mile: Sahlan: comparable figs to Notable Speech
Filly Mare Turf: See the Fire, along with the other Euros Gezora, Cinderella’s Dream and Diamond Rain all have run faster than She Feels Pretty, the likely favorite…Gezora, See the Fire, and Cinderella’s Dream are all lower in odds in European pools than She Feels Pretty…
Just saw that Fierceness is now morning line favorite after scratch of Sovereignty.
At the moment my top 4 are Baeza, Fierceness, Forever Young and Mindframe in alphabetical order.
Sierra Leone will be in the mix, but if Fierceness with Johnny V up brings his game face, he will win.
Once again Sierra Leone is going to have to deal with a stronger Forever Young.
That’s my 4 as well, Lynda.
I know that I will be the bad guy for suggesting that I would prefer to see Kaz Kimura on Kopion as she tries to beat the boys from a rail draw in the Breeders Cup Sprint.
I hate myself for double disrespecting a jockey that has won 27 BC races and a trainer that once won 4 BC races in one day. ONE DAY!!!! Who the heck am I to question anything that those 2 legends do at a racetrack????
But the fact is that the 59 year-old Big Money Mike Smith hasn’t won a BC race since 2017. Maybe he has another one left in him. It won’t be easy with the super fast Bentoranato in the race. I hate myself again for saying that I would have preferred to see Kopion in the 7-furlong F&M Sprint. A distance that Kopion is 4 for 4 at. She has never raced as short as 6-furlongs. She is 1 for 2 at 6 1/2 furlongs. I do notice that the great Mandella gave Kopion a swift :33.1 3-furlong blowout on Sunday. Clearly trying to get her moving quicker and stay close to the fleet footed Bentoranato.
In the end I’ll take the coward’s way out and use both horses in multi-race wagers with a modest win bet on Kopion. With the rail draw, hoping that Kopion’s odds drift up a tick or three from the 7-2 ML.
The BC Sprint does have a $2million purse compared to the measly $1million of the
BC F&M Sprint. Which probably explains a lot.
Just watched Chad Brad making his justification for entering Contrary Thinking, a non-stakes winner, in the Classic. He may have a future in politics.
He’s no stranger to scandal so you may be right!
So would many trainers.
Lol!! Chad Brown actually said in an interview I saw that if they leave Contrary Thinking alone the horse has the ability to do extremely well. Snake oil salesman or politician. Ha ha
For sure a politician, LOL
It’s a sad thing that Sovereignty can’t run this Saturday. I find it hard not to get emotional about it — probably one reason I’m not a successful bettor. On that note, I’ve finished making my selections for the big races on Friday. Those who ARE expert may want to consider my top picks and a) either discard them or b) slot them in at second or third. I’m not bad at picking near misses.
Juv Turf Sprint: True Love, Brussels, Lennilu
Juv Fillies: Explora, La Wally, Percy’s Bar
Juv Fillies Turf: Precise, Switch in Love
Juv: Ted Noffey
Juv Turf: Gstaad, North Coast
Near-misses can be valuable, especially on BC days…
In Juvenile Turf Sprint, I like Havana Anna, but will need to include Brussels, due to your handicapping, along with the fact I lived in Brussels for 7 years…no way to lose now!
Best of luck to you!
biggy312, best of luck but you always seem to do well. Brussels is a beautiful city but amazingly quiet which is actually what you hope for these days.
Davids
Thank you very much; Best of luck to you too!!
I hope for lots of quiet in my old age!
Thanks biggy312, I used to live in Amsterdam for a similar amount time when I was a young adult. Going by the present voting results it’s not the same city anymore which is very sad.
We lived in ‘s-Gravenhage for a similar time during infancy as well.
Thanks biggy 312!
Juvenile – Ted Noffey
Juvenile Turf – Gstaad, Hey Nay Nay. Both Carivaggio’s are long shots but will be cheering them on because O love Carrivaggio (now stands in Japan, Ashford sold him a few years ago)
Juvenile Fillies – going with 2 long shots, La Wally and Super Corredora
Juvenile Fillies Turf – that is a hard one to decide for me. Precise to win.
Turf Sprint – another hard one to decide…like several.
Lennilu for sure.
Good luck, Lynda. I can never handicap these races I just want my favourite to do well, yes win!! Ha ha
Ms Blacktype, after the Sovereignty disappointment I wouldn’t tempt fate by predicting too early. Good luck though.
There are massive races at Flemington and Randwick this Saturday you’ll have to squeeze in between the two days of the Breeders’ Cup races. Then there is Tuesday for the Melbourne Cup, Oaks Day Thursday, and Champions Day Saturday week.
I have the week off starting from today to enjoy both racing festivals. By the way, it’s supposed to rain for the Melbourne Cup, I’m hoping this is good news for Bill Mott, and Parchment Party.
Davids: I was thinking the Melbourne Cup was Saturday in AUS, but I’ll do blanket coverage over the weekend and into Tuesday and beyond, deleting as I watch. Discovered last week I could actually catch a feature race, provided I stay up until 2 a.m. my time to watch. Not happening. The next morning is plenty early enough for me.
Ms Blacktype, this Saturday at Flemington there is the 2 million Group 1 Victorian Derby, Group 1, 1 million Empire Rose Stakes(prep for the Melbourne Cup), and the Group 1 Coolmore Stud Stakes as well there is another Melbourne Cup prep in the Group 2 Wakeful Stakes.
At Rosehill on Saturday there is 10 million The Golden Eagle at 1,500 meters, the 3 million Russell Balding Stakes at 1,300 meters, and the 750,000 Rosehill Gold Cup, (possible prep for the Melbourne Cup) and 700,000 Four Pillars Midway at 1,500 meters. None of these races are graded as yet as they are only a few years old.
It’s great racing for me, I watch the first day of the Breeders’ Cup in the morning then the above races in the afternoon. Followed by Saturday’s Breeders’ Cup races early on Sunday morning. Nothing is better than that. Enjoy the racing.
Thanks for the concise list, Davids. I may be watching well into next week.
BTW, are there ANY major international cities where you haven’t lived?
Ha ha Too many Ms Blacktype. Having grandparents living in three different continents and parents whose work took them and their children to numerous places around the world frequently helped. Ha ha
There are major downsides as well though, to constant travel especially for children.
Remember, their Tuesday is our Monday. Spinnnnnnnnnnn!!!
Warning, Melbourne’s weather is going to change. Dry until Sunday then rain for a week. However, it doesn’t rain heavily in Melbourne around Flemington.
Parchment Party has the lightest weight in the field so even if he doesn’t like wet turf the weight differential puts him in a good spot. Post 5 – 9 is where you want to be.
There is also another US bred horse in ‘the Cup,’ Onesmoothoperator by Dialed In, but is not US owned. He won the Group 2, Moonee Valley Gold Cup a week ago so he has a good chance. Both worth a nod especially if they get good post positions.
Per the interview this morning with Mr Mott when the announcement was made that Sovereignty was being scratched because fever had returned, Sovereignty will be returning to Kentucky. Shiek Mo will make the final decision on his future.
Some on other social media sites are saying it will lower his value at stud. Ridiculous, Godolphin is right up there with Coolmore as the largest, worldwide racing organizations and has an equally strong broodmare band.
That’s correct, Lynda. Conversely, had Sovereignty run and flopped in the Breeders’ Cup Classic that would have had a much bigger impact than Sovereignty missing the race.
Lynda, some like to talk to hear their brains rattle.
Like they care if anyone else breeds to him anyway. They have the luxury of not needing to worry about making money. They have their heir to Bernardini, who was gone too soon for them. If he does well on Sheikh Mo’s own mares, they’ll laugh about it and say, “more for us. Now you have to buy them or beat them.”
When you stay home and just beat the same limited fields….there’s a question…just lije when you skip the middle jewell……he will get Horse of the Year, on four races, his Derby is his biggest triumph, by far….but there’s an asterisk, a “what if”, …I hope to see him next year, I doubt Dubai will come close to The 2025 Classic field, but its older horses….
Matthew, if Mindframe wins the Breeders’ Cup Classic his race record against open company and basically undefeated for the year looks a lot more impressive to me than a horse that has won and lost races against a restricted group of horses.
Nonetheless, you may be right for whatever reason.
I think Fierceness…if he can win twice, from the Del Mar rail…..I’d vote for him….I still wonder WHY Mindframe didn’t prep—he was jock-less, and corraled early….but he did not prep—makes me wonder.. but Fierceness might snag HOY, with a victory….(heck, take a look at Nevada Beach’s record)…in all likelihood…HOY is over….too bad..
Yes, I agree, I wish Mindframe had run another prep but that’s just my thinking and I don’t train racehorses. Fierceness has a very patchy record this year but I thought he was more than unlucky last year not to have been voted the best 3 year old.
Navada Beach scares me a lot, his achievements on paper don’t warrant the worry but Bob Baffert can pull lots of white rabbits out of the hat at the most unpredictable times.
He’s not winning Davids.
There’s only one horse I would confidently say is not going to win the Breeders’ Cup Classic and that’s the rabbit.
Looks like my post yesterday was on target. Sierra Leone and Forever Young will be 1 and 2, with the winner being Horse of the Year. Funny that they are cousins and only exist because of Debby Oxley.
Actually, if Mindframe wins the Breeders’ Cup Classic that would give him three Grade 1 wins + a Grade 2 win for the year while in the process defeating both the best sprinters and middle distance runners in the US.
Moreover, if Mindframe wins the Breeders’ Cup Classic he would be undefeated, losing a jockey in a race dismisses that run altogether, for the year in open company, not races restricted to an age group.
No other horse comes close to Mindframe should he win the Breeders’ Cup Classic
The only issue is that those wins were at 7,8, and 9 furlongs. This race is longer and the pace will be fast and furious. The winner will be the one with the most endurance at the end. Likely a crowd down the shorter home stretch. I still like SL and FY in that scenario. Both have great male and female lines. Might be too close to mix them later. Baeza in third.
Sovereignty has been scratched per the BH website.
More info from the DRF website–the scratch was made because his fever had returned. No decision yet on whether he’ll run next year.
I think he will run in Dubai…
It’s the Dubai World Cup’s 30th anniversary next year and Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum isn’t getting any younger so Matthew you are right on the money.
For those who may think Chad Brown will be using the rabbit, Contrary Thinking, in some benign manor to simply set a nice steady pace for the lumbering Sierra Leone to catch up late let’s go back to the 2016 Sword Dancer Stakes.
Brown employed Aaron Gryder to ride the 51 -1 Inordinate as a ‘pacemaker’ for Flintshire in the above race. Not only did Gryder contribute to the desired pace but also shifted same rabbit off the rail to impede a host of runners while at the same time opening up the Red Sea for Flintshire a clear run to the post.
Wouldn’t it be hilarious if the ‘Brown rabbit,’ Contrary Thinking, were to accidentally set up the Classic perfectly for the two Pletcher runners. Karma, sweet karma.
“Lumbering SL”. Good one!
Well, for a while there, I was afraid I would be the one scratching! My Internet was down all afternoon today, and all I could think of was, what if this can’t be fixed in time for the Breeders’ Cup and I have to miss the whole thing? I would not have been a happy camper! Thank heavens, it looks like we’re up and running again. Fingers crossed there are no more glitches! Hope all goes well for the horses too.
You have my sympathy. The day Flightline won the Classic my cable TV went out. At that time I didn’t know how to get the races online and I spent the afternoon on the phone with the cable company. I did get to see the Turf and Classic but that was all. I hope your Internet stays up and running without any problems, and I too hope everything goes well for all the horses and riders. Good luck!
Baeza cuz I like him….
Sovereignty, cuz I think he is best..
Forever Young cuz I think he will sit the best trip….ex/triboxrs….should Sov scratch I will fashion a big exacta box with Baeza and FY….
Journalism on Vet List.
Had hock injection.
Expectations will come off Vet List once 14 day waiting period is up and be cleared to race.
Do not known reason for injection.
Oh brother. If Sovereignty is forced to scratch, I was going to root for Journalism and now this! Hope there are no other potential defections.
Let’s wait for that to be official.
Agreed!
Steve, I accidently stepped on your comment.
I apologize.
What does that mean? I dont know what you did
I did not see that you had commented to wait until an official announcement.
Sometimes I have issues with my tablets screen freezing.
Oh to have a laptop again. Tablets can be so limiting.
Ms B, there is nothing to indicate that Journalism will not come off the Vets List.
Hopefully Sovereignty will not spike another fever or receive a concerning report on the blood work.
I know, I just don’t love hearing he needed an injection in his hock. You want every horse to come into his or her Breeders Cup race peaking and ready to perform. That said, all of the horses I’ve seen working or simply galloping this week looked amazing.
Ms B, I share your feelings.
Steve: With the possible? likely? scratch of Sovereignty throwing a monkey wrench into the race, I plan to reread your column — several times! — to seek out a new key to an alternate winner.
Loved your reference to Watership Down; in this context “rabbits need dignity and above all the will to accept their fate” is hysterically funny.
Update! No fever…good bloodw9rk….eating like a champ!
I like to go by body language, watching horses, but watching Mott….fever diwn, eating well, bloodwork good—but he looks like a trainer that is not expecting to run..
If Sovereignty does scratch, maybe there is a lesson. Run them when they are ready, not 6 times a year.
Todd, you will have e to start watching Australian racing they still run them the old way, every 3 weeks or so. In the Melbourne Cup week you may have a runner that races in the prestigious Victorian Derby on Saturday at 12f then 3 days later runs in the 2 mile Melbourne Cup.
Here’s the current Australian Horse of the Year, Via Sistina’s, races this season- August 23 wins G1 seven furlong Winx Stakes, September 13 third in the mile G1 Makybe Diva Stakes, won the prestigious 10f Cox Plate October 25. That’s three Group 1 races in 8 or so weeks. Tough as nails in Australia.
Maybe that is why Australian racing seems to be thriving. Much of the racing here seems like auditions for stud careers. They are afraid to soil the merchandise.
Whew, there’s a lot to digest there, Steve. Interestingly, I thought of the “Watership Down” reference myself as the chatter about Contrary Thinking got going. One of my favorite books. I’m in the Sovereignty camp, as I just think, as you said, a generational talent. If he scratches, I think Forever Young is dangerous.
I’ll make a comment about Minnie Hauk after seeing her on the track this morning. Minnie isn’t so “minnie”. She looks terrific. The question is whether or not she can come back so quickly after such a hard race over a soft turf in France.
She will have to beat that big fella on the rail and some fresh foes. But she gets 7 lbs from most of them.
Bill Mott says that Sovereignty had a fever and might miss the race. Being treated right now. Temperature back to normal. Mott will be watching closely the next couple of days.
Huge disappointment, if Sovereignty scratches, which is what Im hearing….
I’m all in on Fierceness. Weird thing is, I have never been a huge fan but I loved his Pacific Classic.
One, he had huge trouble and was forced to run behind and inside horses, something that until that race he was unwilling to do. So, they may have unlocked his ability to rate should he draw poorly.
Two, he’s certainly fast enough and versatile enough on his best.
Three, I remember the last time Todd sent a horse West to test out the Classic track and distance ahead of the big day–Vino Rosso. How’d he do?
So while other bettors have to wonder if their charge will take the track, Fierceness bettors already know.
UH OH…. Sovereignty had a fever this yesterday… Not scratched yet being monitored… good thing he is acting good and eating well … next 24 hours will tell thee story… waiting on blood work to come back… keep fingers crossed 🤞.
Chad was pleased with Sierra Leone’s work, it looked like Prat was asking him to keep pace, with his workmate…..I have not seen all the wirks—I did see Imagination’s :58 flat, with a mate—rider like a statue….
A very close 1, 2, 3. Sierra Leone, Forever Young and Baeza. A track record is likely.
The winner is going to have to leave it all on the track. SL is just the start of the Gun Runner/Candy Ride line.
Did Britney Eurton say this could be the greatest 3yo season EVER? Maybe greatest non- Triple Crown season ever….Derby, Belmont, JD, Travers…Classic—Sexretariat set track records in the Triple Crown….beat Riva Ridge and Cougar in world record time….then won two turf gr1s….
To name 2, 1987, with Alysheba, Bet Twice, Gulch, Cryptoclearance, Java Gold, Lost Code and a few others who would handle anything other than Sovereignty. Then 1988 with Winning Colors, Forty Niner, Seeking The Gold, Dynaformer, er al.
She meant greatest INDIVIDUAL season, by a 3yo—Sov is very good but….nope!
Ok. Gotcha. But i agree, several had bigger individual seasons. Affirmed for one. Triple crown over Alydar, dq in the Travers, taking the great and older Spectacular Bid to the limit in the fall.
Correction: affirmed battled Seatle Slew in the fall, Beat Spectacular Bid the next year. Also. The Bid’s 3 yo season was pretty dominate, despite losing the Belmont.
American Pharoah won The Razorback, Arkansas Derby. Triple Crown, Haskell, 2nd in Travers…and The Classic..
I think 2001 wss a great field too…Albert the Great, Galileo, sakhee etc…had Sakhee held on at the wire he would be to this day the only Arc/BCC winner in history…
I was really hopeful, that Baeza would have drawn an outside post—it can be hard to “switch off” when inside other horses….The way it may play out is—Fierceness and the rabbit going out, then Forever Young sitting a trip on 3rd, early!
I am very much looking forward to the BC, especially the Classic. I have FY at 12-1 and 11-1 in futures. I would not be surprised if any of 4 or 5 horses win, should be a terrific race.
It looks like the last race on Saturday, the Filly Mare Turf is a good betting race.
I am focussing on Saturdays all turf pick 4; my current $45 ticket has all Euros, except for one US based horse!
I am very much looking forward to your comprehensive analysis…
Knowing Bill Mott’s expertise at late season races, i don’t see Sovereignty losing at 10 furlongs. Fierceness or Mindframe would be a threat at 9 furlongs on this track, but that last furlong will make a difference. Trying a cold exacta, Sovereignty over up and comer Nevada Beach.
I doubt Authentic will make the Hall, but he was very good, his Classic was strong! Mike rode him wrong, in The Haskell…still won….not many horses would have beaten his Classic effort…..This year’s Classix is devoid of any REAL front runner! Pace might be far softer than last year, Fierceness LOVES Del Mar- His two hest performance were The Oacific Classic and last year’s Breeders Cup Classic! His best makes him MY Classic Horse to Beat—but my wps moolah will be on Baeza. ..just a gut feeling….
An excellent discussion of the Classic, and I’m glad you included my three favorites Fierceness, Mindframe, and Baeza. I wish them all well on Saturday. I find it interesting that the race includes the first three finishers in the Derby and Belmont as well as the first three finishers in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic. I didn’t research this, but I doubt that that has happened many times. And then throw in Mindframe along with the winner of the Jockey Club Gold Cup and you’ve got what I consider an amazing field. I’m really looking forward to that race.
Steve:Do Baeza and Journalism move up if only because they are at home after a long season of traveling?It seems they’ve been the “road team” ,all year.
They definitely move up.