Belmont Stakes Handicapping Analysis
If you love someone in the Belmont Stakes, run at Saratoga, more power to you. There are just so many questions surrounding the third leg of the Triple Crown there is not a great deal on which to base your selections other than perhaps who you believe is the best horse. Even that is pure speculation and open to debate. ~ Steve Haskin
Shroud of Uncertainty Hangs over Belmont Stakes
By Steve Haskin
As we head into the final leg of the Triple Crown we do so with a sense of trepidation brought on by the perplexity of a Triple Crown season filled with more questions than answers.
Will the track be fast, good, sloppy? Will the favorite run straight with a new bit and new jockey? Will a horse no one ever heard of as late as March 29 make history by winning a classic off just two lifetime starts against maidens and non-winners of two races and racing without Lasix for the first time? Is the Kentucky Derby winner going forward or backwards? Can the Derby or Preakness winner break the dubious streak of 17 consecutive classics won by 17 individual horses? Can the Preakness winner steal another race with no one ignoring him this time? Can a maiden win the Belmont? Finally, will the 2024 Belmont be considered a true classic being run at Saratoga at a mile and a quarter or an early peek at the Travers?
So, you’ve come here for an analysis of the Belmont Stakes, have you? That’s like asking a bacteriologist to analyze a strain of bacteria without a microscope. Like asking a meteorologist to analyze a weather pattern by looking out the window,
But we’ll at least give it a shot. First let’s look at how the race is shaping up. You would think Seize the Grey, breaking from the rail, will be forced to try for the lead and use the weapon that won him the Preakness. But we have learned that attempts to rate Dornoch off the pace failed, once in the Blue Grass when it was intentional and once in the Derby when Mystik Dan outran him to rail, cut him off, and forced him to drop out of it and never be a factor. He has had two sharp half-mile breezes over the Oklahoma training track and Luis Saez is still as good as there is getting a horse to the lead. And what are we to expect from The Wine Steward, whose plans after the Peter Pan have been like a multiple choice quiz: a) Belmont Stakes, b) Woody Stephens Stakes. c) Ohio Derby, d) None of the above. Who do you think came up with the answer?
And then we come to the mystery that can make history, the tantalizing Mindframe. Regardless of what you might think, this horse is actually a 50/50 partnership between Mike Repole and Vinnie Viola’s St. Elias Stables. One owner likes to remain behind the scenes and not make waves and the other doesn’t and does. One can only speculate who made this call, Pletcher or Repole. Or was it both? In any case we have no idea if it was the right call or not, and judging from the number of experts picking him and the NYRA oddsmaker making him second choice over the Derby and Preakness winner, we have to surmise it was either a smart, no, make that brilliant, call or it succeeded in making people believe it was. So we have a horse who wouldn’t surprise anyone if he won by daylight. But others wouldn’t be surprised if he proved to be in over his head.
As for me, nothing in racing surprises me anymore, even if it should. Therefore, with all that said I have analyzed it as best as I can and have come to the conclusion I have no idea what Mindframe is going to do, especially considering that I don’t know how good he really is, only that he ran fast and beat up on lesser horses. But he does have a big fluid stride and all the mechanics and gives the impression of being special. In addition, after five months I still don’t know how good the rest of them are. So if you came here for sage advice and words of wisdom you are excused. I, however, will continue.
Getting back to the dynamics of the race, we have two potential speed horses and two or three consistent stalkers. And then we have Mindframe. Can he outrun everyone from the far outside post? Will he try to? Will he be as effective taking back off the pace and stretching out from 1 1/16 miles to 1 ¼ miles? Can a horse with only 15 ½ furlongs under him beat the favorite with 45 furlongs under him and the Kentucky Derby winner with 64 furlongs under him? Will racing without Lasix for the first time have any effect on him? I believe he has more natural speed than the others and can outrun them, but from post 10, at what cost? This isn’t the long run to the first turn we have in the Derby. As of this writing I still don’t know how to bet him, if at all. For the big bettors it may be all about watching the odds.
So with all that said, how do you bet this race? We still have no idea what he track condition will be, and a sloppy tack could very well change the entire course of the race. Sierra Leone obviously needs a contentious pace and to be more professional to give himself a chance to optimize his powerful closing punch. If he gets both I believe he can outclose anyone, and we have seen how relentless he is and how he steamrolls his opponents in the final furlong. With the assumption he gets what he needs he is a must play in all bets and is likely the most logical win candidate. He has paired up a career-high “1 ½” Thoro-Graph number in his last two starts, making him eligible to take another step forward.
As much as I loved Mystik Dan in the Derby I am not sure what to expect after two hard Triple Crown races. Many feel once he caught Seize the Grey at the top of the top of the stretch in the Preakness he should have passed him. Did the two weeks have any effect on him or is the winner a better horse than we thought? Can Mystik Dan bounce back and move forward or have we seen his best? After running a brilliant “1/4” on Thoro-Graph in the Southwest Stakes he has been locked in to a 3 ½, 3, and 3. He could head back to that career high or those 3’s, considering there are three of them, are where he is right now. He is still a definite play in the exotics.
Seize the Grey is on an excellent pattern and looks like he just is peaking now in his ninth and 10th career starts. But it is doubtful he will have things and easy as he did in the Preakness.
There was little separating Antiquarian and The Wine Steward in the Peter Pan, which is not as definitive a Belmont prep as it usually is with the final jewel being run at Saratoga. But I did like the way Antiquarian was getting stronger in the closing strides and looked as if he would relish the extra eighth of a mile. As for The Wine Steward I’m not sure he would be running if this was still a mile and a half.
I am intrigued by Resilience based on his big sweeping early move in the Kentucky Derby and the fact that Bill Mott added him to the field late after seeing him turn in a near-bullet half mile work over the training track. At a decent price he is worth a win bet. Mott is always dangerous at Saratoga, and I believe the shorter distance helped influence his decision. But even at 1 ¼ miles I’m not positive he is as effective going that far. He needs to be a value play, so he is another whose odds you have to keep an eye on. If you feel he is an overlay this is still a very talented horse, but he needs to make a forward move after pairing up “4’s” on Thoro-Graph.
There isn’t much to say about Dornoch. He has been on a downward trajectory and needs a dramatic turnaround to be competitive. His main shot would be to get to the lead and hope everyone ignores him as they did Seize the Grey in the Preakness. He does have speed and he is tough as nails. He just hasn’t been allowed to use either.
Just about everyone has dismissed the maiden Protective, but be aware that he has not had good trips and still managed to finish third in the Wood Memorial and Peter Pan. In the latter, a hole closed up on him in the stretch and he had to wait for Antiquarian to pass him in order to swing out and get a clear run. When he did he was on his wrong lead and switched back to his right lead before getting beat two lengths. In the Wood he found himself way too far back in 11th, made a good run around the turn, and then had his heels clipped in the stretch by Deposition, who fell. Even in a maiden race at Tampa he had to take up sharply on the first turn when being crowed along the rail. He should appreciate the 10 furlongs and despite being a maiden he’s been through the wars and I wouldn’t throw his colt out in the exotics as potentially the longest shot in the field. To take it one step further, how appropriate would it be to have a maiden upset the Belmont run at the Graveyard of Champions, which has also been known as Graveyard of Favorites.
In my Kentucky Derby analysis I listed my two top win bets, both at a price. No. 1 was Mystik Dan and No. 2 was Honor Marie. The latter was a buzz horse before the Derby, but has been near-invisible before the Belmont, with hardly a mention of his name. He has not had any race this year you can grasp onto other than his second in the Louisiana Derby and because of a sloppy track he didn’t handle in the Risen Star and a nightmare trip in the Kentucky Derby when he was bounced around like a three-cushion billiard shot ater the break, winding up at the very back of a 20-horse field, and then had to take up going into the first turn. Although he finished eighth with an 8 ½ Thoro-Graph number and still has never cracked a 5 ½, I have to believe that there is a huge race in this horse if all the pieces finally fall right for him. I feel that if you like Sierra Leone and he runs a big race from the back of the pack, this guy will be closing right there with him at a much bigger price.
I’m not going to get fancy with bets, still not knowing what I’m doing about Mindframe (would I rather feel foolish betting him or not betting him?) and not knowing the condition of the track or who is going to get the lead.
So for now I will shoot for the stars with my No. 2 Derby pick Honor Marie and the maiden everyone hates as wild win bets and play around with them along with Resilience if he’s a good price. All exotic bets have to go through Sierra Leone and perhaps Antiquarian. Mindframe will have to come from a gut feeling close to the race. That’s not much to go on, but this is more of an analysis than a handicapping column. I’m just not into guessing right now.
Racing historian, author, and award-winning retired journalist for the Daily Racing Form and The Blood-Horse, Steve Haskin was inducted into the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame’s Media Roll of Honor in 2016. Known for his racing knowledge and insightful prose, he has been an exclusive contributor to Secretariat.com since 2020.
Greg (Fan of Damascus) asked for opinions about who the best 3-year-old is at this juncture once the Triple Crown series is over.
As it has happened 8 times the last 10 years, there are three different winners of the TC Series. Triple Crown champions American Pharoah and Justify are the exceptional happenings the last decade.
The answer to Greg’s question depends on the angle one decides to follow.
If you are in favor of accounting for a whole body of work during the last 6 months you may deem Sierra Leone to be the most accomplished so far. So, by virtue of points accrued the son of Gun Runner is your leading 3-year-old.
On the other hand, if one appreciates that Dornoch has just defeated the Derby and Preakness winners and also beat Sierra Leone rather easily, then the son of Good Magic is the best 3-year-old.
However, for horse racing fans the name of the game is predicting the future. So, it is natural for us to just envision different scenarios to unfold in the next 3-year-old Stakes
It is difficult to overlook the “what if’s” … i.e. Is Mindframe the next Arrogate? What if Fierceness is able to recreate his BC and Florida Derby romps? Will Muth be ready to dominate the rest of the season? or is Parenting the chosen one?
Are General Partner or Prince of Monaco good enough to follow Mindframe’s hoof steps?
So, one can not help it to fancy the Jim Dandy, the Haskell, the Travers, the Penn Derby , perhaps the Pacific Classic, Jockey Club Gold Cup, the California Crown, and finally the Breeder’s Cup Classic as the venues to definitely know who the best 3-year-old is.
Dornoch (for many of us) is the best right now but we should wait for the Travers in order to know better gauge this crop… as it was the case the last 3 years…
One thing everyone might be agreeing on is that Honor Marie is the unluckiest 3-year-old so far after two terrible trips in the Derby and Belmont Stakes…
Totally agree at this stage of the game a particular filly might very well be HOY. Of course anything can happen between now and the Breeders Cup but she is the most impressive filly to come along in awhile to achieve that honor in my opinion.
Congratulations to Dornach, his owners, Danny Gargan, and all of the employees of Gargan’s stable.
And congratulations to the Blue Hen, Puca, the dam of Mage and Dornach. She had two classic winners in a row. And how about the sire of the dam, Big Brown!! Big Daddy is a proud grandpa!!And now Big Brown has a grand colt who won the Belmont. And of course, congrats to the baby’s daddy, Good Magic.
What a wonderful triple Crown series for the Sport of Queens and Kings.
And I wouldn’t be surprised at all if a filly is the top three year old this year.
P.S. Danny Gargan used to race only claimers, but Dean Reeves suggested he start to work with 2 year olds.
Absolutely wonderful that some of these lesser known trainers and some of the forgotten ones are getting their time in the sunshine.
If given the opportunities they can train and condition every bit as well as the Pletchers and Bob Bafferts.
So true Lynda King.
Hundred fold better.
Who takes out the Eclipse Award for the 3YOs?
I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s a filly.
A filly will win its own division that’s 4 sure!
But if the Eclipse Award was held tomorrow who would our revered journalists vote for. Yeah, I know – lucky they have over 5 months to the Breeders’ Cup to twiddle their thumbs and write impressive articles Yet after 5 months of following this forum we don’t have a clear cut leader!
Muth returned to the work tab this morning, :47 4/5….don’t forget him..two starts two easy wins this year….if he wins the Haskell over Fierceness–and that’s a big if— but we know he can travel and he’s never run poorly…
Let’s give another shoutout to Danny Gargan. As if winning the Belmont (Gr. I) wasn’t enough, Danny wins the Matt Winn (Gr. III) on Sunday with Society Man.
It was frosting on the cake as Society Man, under Corey Lanerie, won handily by
2 1/2 lengths.
Subbing at Churchill for Danny was his friend and mentor, Nick Zito. Danny, a native of Louisville, is one of several distinguished trainers who grew up in neighborhoods surrounding Churchill Downs including Brad Cox, Mark Casse and Dale Romans to name a few.
Way to go, Danny!
What a great weekend for the Gargan barn! Congratulations!
I really like Society Man, and was excited by how handy he was in this race. As a gelding, hopefully he will stay healthy and we can enjoy his career for a long time!
Really cool that Nick Zito was heading things up in Louisville. Too bad there was hardly anyone there to watch.
Mike Reople is sending some horses to Nick.
Nick still has ability when having the right horses.
Way to go Danny Gargan!!
Steve, like yourself, I took a shot on Honor Marie Saturday. After the break it looked like I was watching a replay of the Derby, Honor Marie gets pinballed and six strides out of the gate his race is basically over. To his credit he gave us his run from the 3/8 pole to finish fourth in another gutsy effort. As in the Derby, Sierra Leone is putting in a big run on the far outside and lugging, saws off Protective, then bumps Mystik Dan who bumps Honor Marie, to add insult to injury. Next time this horse races, I hope he draws the widest post, I would like to see what he can do with a clean break. My comments are not to take away anything from the first and second finishers. both put in huge efforts. Dornoch showed again how good he is and Mindframe would have made it a very close finish but for his greeness. Hoping these horses stay healthy and sound for they are going to provide with some great racing the rest of the season. Thanks jomat.
Honor Marie is all heart. He will get there just like HRC did.
Lynda, it’s so frustrating, but Honor Marie has shown so much in defeat. The idea that he should look for easier spots makes no sense to me: he’s good enough to beat these with any kind of trip
White Abarrio going back to Joseph. Dutrow been on 10 day suspension.
He did not fire in race Saturday but came out in good shape.
Next race will be the Nerud about a month from now.
Mystik Dan came out of Belmont on good shape other thsn some mucous when scoped. Getting a rest and next races possibly Travers and Penn Derby.
Interesting news! Thanks, Lynda.
Sorry to hear Dutrow losing White Abarrio but this is horse racing…. what have you done for me lately attitude. As far as Mystik Dan I was hoping he would have been farther back in the race after having 2 tough races (KD and Preakness). Thought Hernandes was undecided what to do with him on the backstretch and I think MD got tired of it. He needs a break. Resilience biggest disappointment in this race no run at all. Needs to find easier company and I will say the same for Honor Marie. Nice horse but can’t run with the best and it won’t get easier going forward (BTW that bump in the stretch in my opinion did not cost him 3rd place. Mindframe (what was that in the stretch ???) Irad said he (the horse) lost focus… I think Irad lost focus. It cost him the race. Sierra Leone…. was surprised by the jockey change in the first place and it is now obvious Prat was not the answer. Was Tyler getting back with the bump of SL at the top of the stretch …. Sure looked like it to me … stay tune !!!
Going to be an interesting summer and fall and if what we saw today by Parenting … Baffert maybe playing a big part of it with his 3 year olds.
Thanks Lynda! So glad to see White Abarrio going back to Joseph!
Correction, not 10 day, should be 10 year.
Just noticed that typo.
Evidently White Abarrio did not fire when asked in the Met Mile.
Owner also said awaiting results of blood test.
Did see a very brief video of him at Saratoga and he seemed to be somewhat tender on his back legs, the right hind more so than left. I think this colt has had a shoe issue in the past. There is a difference between being tender footed and lame.
He comes across as being just the sweetest horse with a cute personality. I wish him well.
I was so disappointed in Rick Dutrow with the first post, so I’m glad to know he isn’t BACK in trouble. I am sure the rule breaker, brilliantly unstable rep will always follow him, but I want him to keep his nose clean after being out for that long. Glad this isn’t about jeopardizing a second chance. Not that he is a happy man today, because I think White Abarrio is near and dear to him.
Oh well….Mc Vay disappointed again….but wow did Bob’s new three year old Parenting impress! Had only the one 5 1/2 furlongs start…and huge win today…and fast time, winning under wraps JJ Hernandez eased him up.. ….Saratoga might have a new kid on the block…by Justify/Lemon Drop Kid so he’ll stay….
Saw your earlier post…. hope didn’t lose you A*% on McVay. Parenting looked scary good… he maybe something SPECIAL !!!! I wish Hernandes hadn’t wrapped him… probably could have won by a dozen lengths . He is by Justify
BTW… Those fractions were legit
We get it you don’t like John. McVay will come around.
Actually did not think he ran that bad , just did not have that kick he showed in his last race. Would like Sheriff’s to keep the “come from behind style” and workouts in the morning be sharp (below one minute) 5 furlong length.
Plus…he’s down inside…trailing by a half length thru a :46 4/5 half….he was impressive— JJ took care he didn’t squeeze the lemon, on a horse’s first try two turns, HOPE this one stays physically healthy, so many of Bob’s haven’t, this year….Nysos, Maymun…Muth got a fever so he’s fine now….have a feeling there will be an eastern trip or two, this Summer!..
Oh no I lost $10….actually won $100 on the day hitting the SA last race….I won on Thursday…Friday…Sunday….but Saturday was dismal, and on the weekend I lost….
Baffert may have his Travers horse in Parenting. That’s the best stride i’ve seen this year.
Todd and Matthew W – maybe Parenting is why BB stayed in Cali even though NT was going in the Met Mile. He has known a few good Travers horses.
Katy, I’d say Haskell Stakes rather than the Travers Stakes. Baffert has been much more successful in the former rather than the latter
I agree with Katy hope get a tape of Frank Sinatra also agree with her on SL. Steve thank you for all you due for us. ROGER
Oh man….I was on the phone with my brother, when she was singing….I used to sing…have sung the National Anthem at Oregon State basketball games….have sung NY, NY at Karaoke Bars— that song requires a big voice— and they picked a woman who doesn’t have a big voice—I agree, just play Frank’s version, that’s all they need— Big race/big voice…..
Regarding the song, she was a big zero! Terrible voice!
I am somewhat surprised y’all were with me on this! She is the voice of Elsa from Disney’s Frozen, and a big Broadway star besides! I guess just because a person is a Broadway/torch singer doesn’t mean a classic big band pop song – in a rowdy outdoor venue – is in the wheelhouse. Everyone has a bad day. Should we “let it go?”
Apparently some care, so I will ask y’all to help me remember: Did Tony Bennett ever sing at the Belmont? Or did he just sing at the Breeders’ Cup? I think he did at least one, and I loved the performance. He was an actual National Treasure.
I am sorry for my puns. I’m sure I will receive appropriate PUNishment in this life. Or more likely the next, because I’m clearly not sorry enough to stop.
No one sings it better than “Ole Blue Eyes”.
Very difficult for anyone to do a cover of a song that is better than the original.
Only one that comes to mind is Whitney Houston’s version of “I Will Always Love You” in the movie “The Body Guard” with Kevin Costner.
I love Dolly and she is an amazingly talented songwriter but Whitney knocked it out of the park just as she did when she sang the National Anthem before the Super Bowl some years back.
Matthew, a hidden talent, good for you. Are you Countertenor, Tenor, Baritone, or Bass?
David’s I’m a baritone….I no longer sing in public, like the old joke “I take requests, but I’ll sing ANYWAY!”……Nowadays I only sing to Mage, my cat…and Blues and Bisin my Great Dane and wifey’s Standard Poodle—and they love when I sing to them!..
Great stuff, Matthew, I know Blues is a blue what color are Bisin and Mage?
Tura Lura—- an Irish farewell— is 8-1 in the final race at Golden Gate—after an 84 year run….
I went there for the last time last Saturday. Debated whether to watch the final races there today but decided it would be too sad. I will always carry with me a host of wonderful GGF memories that no corporate decision can ever take away.
Mc Vay is Mc back today! Big and balanced frame….after betting him in graded stakes races…I got off him when they finally just put him against maidens, and wow! Horse had had big problems with kickback…so Mike took him 7-wide on the clubhouse turn and then four wide coming for home and he blitzed them, getting a good Beyer number.. if he wins today’s Affirmed…then Shirreffs will either point him to the Del Mar turf series—or else it’s Saratoga, vs the big three year olds, so I’m hoping he wins today— this is a big and beautifully balanced colt, that cost plenty….
Always liked this horse.
I liked Skinner, from same owner/trainer….he lacked the big frame….also Express Train…a beautiful horse…..Mc Vay— long frame and tons of upside—if they can figure out his aversion to the kickback…..they will have a real contender!..
Yes, Express Train was a beauty and well-named!
Agreed!
Not today, Matthew.
Fingers crossed with Mc Vay in the Affirmed Stakes, Matthew. Doesn’t look an easy race to win here, I’m nervous but hopeful.
Here’s something a little weird.
Derby: Mystik Dan 100 BSF
Preakness: Seize the Grey 100 BSF
Belmont: Dornoch 100 BSF
Last year 2023
Derby: Mage 105
Preakness: National Treasure 98
Belmont: Arcangelo 102
I know that it makes people crazy when we talk about speed figures, but where have all the fast horses gone? Japan? Australia? It’s been a 6 year dry spell since Justify.
Beyers are lower going further back than Justify. They were higher in the 2000’s decade and before.
Dornoch got a 101.
Justify: 103, 97, 101
American Pharoah: 105, 102, 105
I wonder if Beyers have changed the way they are computed. Best Pal ran a bunch over 110…and nobody thinks he was all that—if he were around today…according to the Beyers he’d dominate? Really?…
I was thinking of Beyers for Derby horses in the 2000’s when I wrote that, they were up around 110. I don’t have any specific horse’s numbers, just what I read was the average. I don’t know whether he changed the formula, but they seem to have gotten lower every decade since the 90’s. I don’t fully trust them because he prefers certain pace setups I believe.
How about this one, Tommy? Arthur’s Ride (briefly on the 2023 Triple Crown trail) got a 111 Beyer in an optional claimer on the Belmont undercard, nearly 20 points faster than Crupi in the Grade 2 Suburban.
Wow! Good on Arthur!
If there was a vote today for the best three-year-old colt or gelding in the US. who do you think win win the poll?
While I still love Sierra Leone, he doesn’t deserve the crown at this part of the season. Having said that, I don’t know who does.
When you give your thoughts, please base it on performance so far, not potential.
greg (Fan of Damascus)
Waiting for a hero to rise from these streets.
i hope they give dan some rest then come back. I think he is a better horse than he showed yesterday.
I hope that the NYRA takes the Metropolitan off of next year’s Belmont at Saratoga card. That wasn’t the Met Mile yesterday. That was the Met Mile with an asterisk. The Met Mile is one of the best races of the year and deserves NOT to be run out of that goofy Wilson chute.
I took a beating yesterday. I was right about playing against the top 3 finishers in the Preakness and right about BB’s horses all running well. A first, second, and a third in the 2 races in which they were entered.
I was wrong about Sierra Leone running first or second and about Dornocher. A horse that I’m not a fan of. He got his track yesterday and the extreme speed bias carried him home. Sure, the 2-start Mindframe would have won if he wasn’t zig-zagging down the stretch in the final furlong. And Sierra Leone got bumped around out of the gate and did his usual lugging in routine in the stretch(or as Chad calls it “leans a bit”). But Dornocher got there first with a 100BSF. A number that he hadn’t come close to previously. A speed bias can work wonders on a horse.
Sierra Leone has gotten a new bit, new blinkers, and a new jockey? What’s next? A new trainer? Forget about it. He’s a lugger. If I ever get ready to plunk down $2.3 million for a horse, I’m going to have a team of experts go over that animal with a fine toothed comb. I have to wonder if that happened with Sierra Leone.
Dornocher, I love the play on words, Tommy. He knocked and the door opened. lol
Yes, he did.
I cannot remember a better race day anywhere, and I’ve been around a while…I don’t think owners and trainers would have preferred running at Aqueduct, Saratoga knocked it out of the park…..
Tommy, the owners of Sierra Leone have a team of veterinarians, along with various experienced spotters, and their own excellent eye for a good horse. They monitor these type of sale toppers at a very early age. There is a huge difference watching a yearling walked by an expert handler who can ‘fudge’ certain things etc at a sale than watching full extension.
Buying a yearling in a confined ring is nothing like watching a 2 year old breeze sale under tack against the clock.
Did anybody notice Dornoch in the post parade. When I saw that bowed neck and he was all business I knew I was in trouble! Gargan had him primed! Congrats!
Yes, Derek, as I had a small win wager and exacta combos using Dornoch, I was pleased to see that he was all business in the post parade. Maggie Wolfendale also liked what she saw of him while he was warming up. All I needed was a good break, which I got, thankfully.
Mindframe was all good when turning for home，untill Irad used his left-hand whip，that caused Mindframe’s drift out,and finally cost Mindframe’s Belmont trophy.Irad Ortiz did a terrible ride.
In ways Honor Marie reminds me of Hot Rod Charlie.
Runs his heart out, gives all he has, takes a licking and keeps on ticking (that Timex commercial from many years ago).
I was totally wrong about the Belmont though Honor Marie did finish fourth.
White Abarrio did not have a good day either.
Thorpedo Anna might just be the best in this 3 year old crop.
If anyone remembers The Player? Two of his progeny won today.
Good Magic and Puca seem to be the perfect nicking. She has a 2024 Good Magic by her side, also a colt
John Stewart, owner of Resolute Far, wants to build the best broodmare band in the world. Looks like he is off to a good start. He has also jumped into the cause to stop the sale of horses to meet their horrendous end across the border.
I love the horse, he did well to get 4th….he HAS a big kick— I wonder….about the ten furlongs….he reminds me of Skinner, who had a terrific turn of foot but could not sustain it, but I’m not going to give up yet, on Honor Marie….they wanted to be 8 lengths behind but found themselves further back, because of bumping—he can’t be bumped because he’s not that big….
It’ll be interesting to see how the Stewart purchase of Tutta La Vitta endeavor turns out in the US. Stewart paid $Aus 3.2 million for the filly at the the Inglis Chairman’s Sale last month.
Have lots of respect for HM.
He’s a tough son of a gun. I’m glad Honor Code left a good one…he’s a good horse, and fun to watch
Good things are ahead for him.
Honor Code also left Medoro.. undefeated 3yo turf filly, look for her at Del Mar she’s nice….
Mindframe showed his inexperience and lack of seasoning but is definitely the colt on the rise. Well done to Honor Marie as well.
The Sierra Leone mantra that he is “the best 3 year old in the country” sounds and looks rather hollow now. Who’s fault is it now that he didn’t win? The ‘experts’ get it wrong, again. Ha ha Racing, the great leveller.
Yeah, especially the “experts” on tv. My tv on mute until seconds prior to race.
That’s right Mike, ‘expert’ at getting things wrong. The too Andys are the best in the business, all ‘mouth’ at missing the board.
Correct! Also, not a fan of Wofendale.
Thorpedo Anna may be the best 3 year old in the country. Congrats to Dornoch, but these guys are slow. Hard to deny the breed is in trouble.
Slow? Never fails with some lol. What counts is which horse gets there first.
You never fail to miss a point.
Sorry Todd, l don’t lose my mind on numbers.
I think Thorpedo Anna would’ve won, yesterday….
But Davids, don’t you think that the unfairly fast track, pointed out in pre-race whining, made it Saratoga’s fault? And that Tyler was definitely race riding and swerved on purpose, using Protective to get revenge. There’s a noise for the excuses for Sierra Leone, and it is “pish.”
Honor Marie should be taking home the show money, IMO. He reminds me of Senor Buscador, with the awful closer’s luck. Hopefully, patience and perseverance will pay off, and he will win his big one.
Mindframe looked like what I thought we were supposed to get from Fierceness. Nice colt, and hopefully will exit this ship-shape and get nicer. He wandered out, and it may have cost him the win, but he didn’t get crashed into, either.
Katy, I expected the Saratoga track to favor speed as it always does at the beginning of the Saratoga meeting then somewhat plateaus out by the time the Travers is run.
From what I listened to, none of the ‘experts’ conceded that Sierra Leone would find any difficulty winning the Belmont Stakes – he was supposed to be so superior to the rest of the field that he was going to win by 5 lengths or more. Apart from Jeff Siegel who was decidedly on Mindframe.
Honestly, I was surprised that Sierra Leone was not placed below Forever Young in the Kentucky Derby and behind Catching Freedom in the Risen Star due to interference but my eyes are so used to European racing that they may be too hypersensitive for some US racing.
I haven’t seen the Belmont Stakes more than once so I’m unaware of anything that Tyler Gaffalione mat have done but he seems a decent guy and extremely professional so it surprises me he would do such a thing but everyone has their bad days.
Mindframe, is a star on the rise, very classy horse, let’s hope he stays healthy.
Davids, i was actually being sarcastic about Sierra Leone. I am tired of the excuses made, and then hearing that he’s the best. He is a big horse who does the same dangerous thing every time out. Talent and potential does NOT a champion make. I thought he should have been taken down in KY, too. I was surprised that they didn’t see fit to do so yesterday. I think at least 3 horses had their chances blown, and there was some serious bumping – and a scary check behind it. It just so happened that Protective and Tyler G were in that mix.
I thought Saratoga did a good job hosting the Belmont, and the track was as expected. I hope they’ll just get a tape of Frank Sinatra next year, though. (No sarcasm.)
Katy, I agree that Saratoga put on an excellent weekend of racing, and also agree that the excuses for several horses have become tiresome. As I tried to state above, without being critical of the winners, the problems of the breeding industry are coming to a head with recent results of Triple Crown races. I don’t believe having 18 consecutive single TC race winners is an aberration. These horses just don’t have the constitution, at least at this point in their careers, to assert superiority. So we have a situation where trip, or pace, or luck are deciding the races. It’s really been building for 25 years, with just a few notable exceptions. I know Beyer figures are imperfect, but these horses are topping out around 100. Disregarding the champions of the 70s, even good horses from the 80s and 90s would absolutely smoke these horses. I can think of no other reason for this than the prevalent inbreeding for speed.
Mindframe has the Constitution, what are you talking about?
Hahaha. Half, at any rate!
I thought he was going to win…considering it was his first stakes race….and from the far outside post….running wide both turns…..he acquitted himself very nicely…..
I worry about the breed, too. I don’t know what is to be done about it, though. If you open the studbook, where is the new blood going to come from? And what about working on and embracing genetic testing? Pretty sure that because of the money in breeding and sales, any good or new ideas will just get tossed.
We play everything like poker, and then we cry when we realize that we should have chosen to play it like chess instead.
Haha …good one, on the “half”….Constitution is my favorite sire….
Matthew, wait till Constitution starts getting the elite broodmares. I’ve been following Constitution from day one.
He couldn’t be more than half or he’d be his own uncle.
Ha ha, that’s the trouble with the internet unless you you use emojis the sense can be misconstrued. lol. I agree with you, if Sierra Leone was owned by Mr & Mrs Unknown and trained by Chad Green would he have been taken down?
The Saratoga Belmont Stakes was a wonderful success, I always feel they should use Saratoga more often it’s never going to spoil their usual meet and it would allow more people to enjoy the historic setting.
New York, New York will forever be Frank Sinatra’s signature song why try to improve upon perfection.
Davids, maybe I’ll have to starting typing LOL… because Chad Green got me, LOL. Spot on!
I doubt the town would mind seeing the racing crowd even more. That track looks so good on TV, too.
Katy, I still have faint hope that Hialeah will be returned to its former beauty. I want to revisit the track but not as a decaying ruin of past glory, l have so many happy childhood memories from Hialeah.
Oh Happy Day! Patience is a virtue essential not only in our daily lives but in betting on horses, as well.
I was an immediate fan of both Dornoch and Sierra Leone when I watched the exciting rendition of the Remsen last year. This year while Sierra Leone continued to display his talent, Dornoch did not impress, seemed to regress and I fell off his bandwagon. As the Belmont approached, I read where Danny and Luis had not given up on him and said to expect his best effort of this year. I saw that he had a couple of good works and I knew the distance would be no problem with his pedigree. My only concern would be a killer pace. So, I bet $10 to win on Dornoch and Honor Marie ($20) and due to cashing on four races prior to the Belmont, I was able to bet a $4 exacta box on Seize the Grey, Honor Marie, Dornoch, Sierra Leone and Mindframe ($80). I cashed $189 for the win and $653 for the exacta. For the day, I was up $864 (it’s been a while).
PATIENCE. Perservere and they will come through. Congratulations to Dornoch who survived a quick pace and rose to the occasion. Also, I would be remiss if I didn’t thank Mindframe for bearing out in the stretch. Whew!
Good for you Dewey, congratulations. I was a little disappointed that Mindframe started to wander around instead of heading straight for the line but that’s racing, you take your chances.
Congratulations
I missed part of the race, sadly, but I read that Honor Marie got slammed again…that’s so frustrating. He never stops trying …just needs even a little luck
Betsy, bad luck seems to be following Honor Marie but he always tries his heart out. One day, soon, his luck will change.
David, he’s such a tough little horse – he’ll win one of these does the road, with even a little luck
I’m so proud of him
Concerned about Seize The Grey. Looks like he was eased.
Feel so bad for Honor Marie.
Congratulations to Dornach. Great run!
Sorry to rain on everyone’s parade here but that bump that Honor Marie took in the stretch did not cost him 3rd place in the Belmont… He is a nice horse but he just is not that fast. Sierra Leone will beat him 10 out 10 times without the bumping. Same for Catching Freedom who is also faster than Honor Maria but just under Sierra Leone. But Sierra Leone does have an issue with his lugging in there has got to be a fix for it.
I had no interest in Dornoch until I saw him warming up. Loved how he looked. Put down a $5 place and collected $44. Sierra Leone needs to race on the rail – no horses inside him. He’s going to cause a fall at some point. Talented horse, but dangerous.
Congratulations!
Way to go, Karren!
Anyone notice Sierra Leone took a bump fron the maiden, in the stretch? Ridden by Gafflione….one of the announcers said that was a coincidence….Migliore said as a jockey he disagreed….
The replay showed both horses guilty.
I am absolutely THRILLED for Dornach and all his peeps! They finally let the big goofy guy run his race, and he fulfilled his legacy by winning the Belmont, making Puca, his dam, a double classics producer at the age of 12.
The entire day was full of exceptional races. In future, I’m thinking of doing pedigree research on the big turf races the day before — not only is the winner of the Grade 1 Manhattan by Frankel, he’s a half brother to Breeders Cup Turf winner Rebel’s Romance. It’s been family day at Saratoga.
Been out all afternoon. Need to catch up on the other races.
I didn’t realize Puca was so young. What a remarkable achievement!
Ms Blacktype, were you at the track? Measured Time was a beast. I was shocked he had so much left in the tank, as warm as he got and as much as he was pulling on Buick early! His way of going reminds of Rebel’s Romance, with the long legs and reach of stride – it all makes sense now.
My kid finally got some satisfaction: Dornoch was her Derby horse. I thought she’d be chuffed, but instead she cried because she was worried about Mystik Dan. Yep, she climbed right onto that bandwagon, too. I said, “Babe, Brian put his whip away early in the stretch and kept him safe and out of all that bumping mess. He’s OK. He’s still a champion.”
Lynda, you’ll love the Jaipur! Although I think it may be time for Dancing Buck to retire (and come live with me!). And Irad and his whip are annoying.
Puca, Better Than Honour, Weekend Surprise. Who knew that a Big Brown daughter would get on that list?
Blessed are the broofmares!
Your daughter has a kind heart, worried about Mystik Dan.
Brian is a wonderful jockey, very much underrated.
I was home on my sofa, Katy, but I felt like I was a little farther upstate all afternoon — possibly because I didn’t “interrupt” myself with the usual Saturday chores.
It was a special day! Those chores will likely be waiting for you. Mine were!
He got a 104 Beyer…
Buck did?? That was one FAST race front to back, then.
Although I see my faves Caravel and Casa Creed both earned higher numbers in their several Jaipurs at 6-7F.
That race is shorter all the time.
Sierra Leone needs to be banned from racing.
There, I have said it.
I mean…if you’re drawn inside of him you’re screwed…
Tell that to the stewards, they seem to be blind on that. Twice he should have been taken down but not a whisper.
Gelding should suffice, although he’s too valuable at this point for that.
They are not going to geld a stallion that was purchased for all that money.
He has issues in his head and because of that paddling and or winging out.
Head issues can be inherited, the paddling is not usually genetic.
I know, Lynda, I know. He just makes me angry, despite how magnificent a horse he is.
Maybe a human or two instead.
I just hope he doesn’t cause a pileup one day
I QUIT!
I’ll stick to the Kentucky Derby but never, NEVER the next two evah! Paralysis should have been the warning.
I’m glad I preserved my earlier winnings and stopped betting. Made about $150.
Wow. I sure didn’t see that coming!
Poor Honor Marie got pinballed AGAIN! It looked like Sierra Leone came over and got him in the stretch, as well…..Sierra Leone made a left turf AGAIN….
1$ Super 9/3,8/1,3,5,8,10/1,2,3,5,7,8,10
.50 super 3/9/1,5,8,10/1,2,5,7,8,10
Good luck to all and home safe for each of them.
Going with HM.
Steve so far this is Horse Racing at it’s American best….I agree with you if Sierra Leone fires…and he never hasn’t….he’ll blow past them…..
FYI about Saratoga’s track: Indications are that it’s been “lightning fast” and favoring speed horses all week by quite a big margin. Chad Brown spoke earlier today about his concerns to FanDuel, “Horses really aren’t closing on it. I’m just hoping NYRA puts out a fair track. It’s getting a little crazy… I’m seeing tired horses hang on late that really aren’t that good. That’s a sign the track is too fast.”
Thanks Shelly, that’s what I expected the track to be Saratoga on the initial week or so is often “lightning fast.”
Of the 8 races I could rewatch of Seize the Grey’s 10 career starts, I’ve become super impressed with him. In almost every race, he was still trying hard in the end. While he finished best when more forwardly placed, whenever he was in the back or mid-pack, he still came running. I do wonder if all the racing will catch up to him today. But, one thing’s for sure- he’ll likely finish on the board.
No shot to prevail Shelly. He’s in a barn that treats horses like machines.
He’s carrying his weight well….
Agreed!
Yep, it’s a shame really. He’s a really nice horse. If Seize the Grey faded like he did in the Belmont (which he’d never done before when forwardly placed), he def was tired. Hope he gets a nice long rest now… Just a fun fact: Seize the Grey beat Dornoch as a 2yr old gate to wire when he broke his maiden (July 2023).
Lukas doesn’t believe in rest,rather running them in the ground.
Hey, nice going, Baby Yoda!
With alacrity!
I’m stoked to see Honor Marie finally get a chance to run, though the track being so biased makes me slightly concerned.
He wasn’t that far back in the KJC, so…9
Betsy, I hope Honor Marie fires thunderbolts down the straight and figures in the finish. Fingers crossed
Just getting caught up on Friday’s races on video — even though I was IN Saratoga yesterday. Had dinner reservations at Osteria Danny and a concert at Cafe Lena (which I mistakenly thought started at 7) so didn’t even make it to the track. Caught Thorpedo Anna’s brilliant win in the Acorn from the TV in the restaurant bar.
Was thrilled to see Arthur’s Ride win a mile and a quarter optional claimer in yesterday’s second race in a sprightly 2:00.99. Will be interesting to see if today’s Belmont horses run that fast.
Yes, Ms Blacktype, Arthur’s Ride convincing win sets him up for a stakes race down the line – Saratoga here we come, lol, we’re already there.
Davids, I hope to actually make it to the track in July or August. This trip, had to plan around my husband (a self-proclaimed hater of horse racing — who will watch a big race on occasion and marvel at a really great performance).
Good for you, Ms Blacktype. You have my sympathy re: your husband. lol. I have friends who think Dr. Fager is a new variety of Dr Pepper soft drink.
Hope you have a great time, which you will.
Happy Belmont morning, everyone! The forecast: just a 30% chance of showers, mostly in the morning. Less than 1/10 of an inch of rain expected, if that.
Belmont odds are crazy. No one higher than 17-1. If Mindframe is 7-1 then Sierra Leone should be 6-5 not 2-1. Unless Mindframe is a freak Sierra Leone should blow by everyone surprised to see Seize the Grey second choice at 4-1. And who would have thought the Derby winner would be 6-1?
Ice cold – Siarra Leaon- Resilience
Really? You liked Protective on Keeler’s sight. Throwing spaghetti on the wall again? Well you might be able to boast on one sight if you’re right.
For someone who had his finger on the bullseye in the Derby, this analysis seems paralyzed, but who isn’t at this point? I have to tell you I was chuckling the whole way as I read because I feel your pain. Thanks for taking a stab at it. I don’t have a strong feeling either but I am with you and the rest that it does seem to set up well for Sierra Leone. The pace should be good and he’ll have less obstacles to overcome. He’s fresh and he is a superb athlete. Is there hope for a surprise element here? Maybe. Antiquarian or Seize the Grey, or Mystik Dan, but I wouldn’t count on it. I’m hoping Mystik Dan does put in a good showing but he has to be ready for a break. Enjoy the race and thanks for sharing your valued opinion, even if it did just point to more questions. That does seem to be the feeling I have and I’m not chuckling anymore because we are running out of time and need to make a smart bet!
Speed is carrying at Saratoga so it could be a cavalry charge finish unless Mindframe is just too good.
Steve, in a perplexing way, this Belmont has developed into a most interesting contest We have the Derby and Preakness winners, the brilliant, yet quirky, favorite and a phenomenal new player that hasn’t been tested for class.
I’m going with my gut (ample) and will play an exacta box, keying Sierra Leone with Dornoch and Honor Marie. I’m glad that the weather is cooperating and the track will be fast. May they all come home safe.
Steve, did you notice that Ramjet won the Tokyo Derby (Dirt version Jpn G1) the other day? This was the colt that was originally going to come from the Japanese Triple Crown prep races until T O Password’s owners dec8ded to come.
What might have been?
Davids, I’ve read that Ramjet will next appear in the Japan Dirt Classic (Gr. I) on October 2nd to face Forever Young. Put that one on your calendar…. it should be a dandy.
If all goes well, the plan is to have Forever Young return to the States for the Breeders’ Cup Classic. I love this horse and can’t wait to see him back in action.
Thanks Dewey, I read that as well. Should be a very interesting race. I was so looking forward to Ramjet running in the Kentucky Derby then the owners of T O Password changed their minds and decided to run in the Kentucky Derby. T O Passward ran well, nonetheless, but Ramjet is 5 lengths better.
Thanks Steve, I always enjoy ‘reading’ your thoughts on major races even more so now living here in Melbourne where there aren’t too many racing fans aquatinted with US racing. The Kentucky Derby is the only race in North America – LOL!!
I tend to agree with Jeff Siegel, Mindframe is such a professional racehorse that, unless this is too early, with his talent and Ortiz Jr’s aboard he wins.
Honor Marie is the other horse I like as well. Fabulous race card, the weather is looking ok too. Good luck and enjoy the races.
Thorpedo Anna and Leslie’s Rose, YES!
Rah for Thorpedo Anna! What a girl!
Thorpedo Anna doing it with her ears up the whole way home! She gets out of the gate like nobody’s business. No more $40K babies for Sataves.
Power Squeeze made a great move from last to pick up third, too.
Uncertainty makes this a good race! If Mindframe goes out and wires them it wouldn’t surprise…..if Sierra Leone blows by the field it wouldn’t surprise….but we’re dar from certain, and that invites a wager or three!..
Matthew, I haven’t had time to look at the races at Saratoga until this morning (morning here, Saturday). Have you noticed that Saratoga typically speed favoring?
David’s I haven’t noticed Saratoga being speed favoring…..my brother’s theory was— the higher level the track the better the horseflesh…and the better horses are faster….the 2yo Eclipse winning filly did not finish very well….I HAVE noticed the inside part of the dirt course is pretty good….
Thanks Matthew, speed tends to rule (particularly early) at Saratoga at the usual meet but I was wondering how the track was playing in early June.
I apologize for changing the subject. Fierceness will not be running in the 1 1/4 mile Belmont due to exhaustion. I wonder if this is due to his pedigree and if he is limited to 1 1/8 miles like his male family. Johnny V would be an excellent judge of this as he rode his grand sire, Quality Road.
Well OK…but don’t do it again! (I’m kidding)….Mewonders…..if they are waiting with Fierceness because Mindframe (same owner/trainer) is doing so well?….
Negative effects of trainer’s enhancement program
100% agreed Counter.
As usual, Steve, you’ve made a good case for nearly every horse in this difficult to handicap race. I’m going with your statement about halfway through, that Sierra Leone is the most likely winner. That he may be, but if any other horse jumps up and wins, I won’t be surprised.
Guess I am sticking with Mystik and Honor Marie.
Not convinced that the new bit contraption and new jockey will cure SL’s ills. Always a bit leery of a major equipment change before a big race. Somewhat disappointed in how Chad rolled over on the jockey in the Derby.
Thanks for all the insights Steve.
Safe racing for all and good luck everyone.
West Saratoga running in the Matt Winn. Will be cheering loud and proud for him to win.
Great stuff, Steve, thanks!
Several handicappers do like Honor Marie – I think the lack of buzz is due to the fact that he’s been at CD, with no work in NY.
He will be a huge overlay because of the Pletcher horses …..
Beckman thinks he’s doing even better than he was going into the Derby. He’s a good horse – I just want him to have the chance to show it
Betsy I bet on Marie….but the Racing Form comment said he hasn’t looked good at Saratoga this week…
I found the record time for the Belmont run at 10 furlongs on fan duel’s site. If correct, it is 2:06.60, and dates to 1904 – held by a horse called Delhi. The 2024 Kentucky Derby time was 2:03.34. So unless the track is very deep and sloppy or sloooooow, or these colts are really not that good… we may see a “record performance” on Saturday! Woohoo.
My heart wants a dual crown, and I’ll be pulling hard for Dan and Grey.
But the phrase “he’s been through the wars” caught my attention. It reminded me of my daughter’s good bay horse, who is an old saint that we got pretty recently, after his owner died and his future was tenuous. He has some old scars that could only have resulted from some really serious injuries, and there’s no one to ask about them. We were brushing him a few weeks back, and I told Dad, “I wish he could tell me his story. All I know is this horse is made of tough stuff. He has for sure been through the wars.” And today being D-Day and all… Steve, I am going with you on Protective.
This is probably proof of just how crazy I am, but I found a text I sent myself on 7/22/23 with the names Roses for Debra, Valentine Candy, and Protective. It would be cool for those 3 to come back and make good at this odd meet at Saratoga. The fact that they all made it back as entries seems sort of improbable in this day and age. I might go buy a lottery ticket!
May they have clear skies, comfortable temperatures, clean runnings, and EVERYONE come home safe. ❤️
Hi Katy,
The reason I am not pulling for a Dual Crown is because I feel Sierra Leone is the best three-year-old in the nation. I want to see him win, then take on City of Troy in the Travers. Two top Ballydoyle horses taking on each other in the Midsummer Derby. What a race that would be.
I hope you have a great weekend Katy.
greg (Fan of Damascus)
I already bet on Honor Marie…and he was 17-1 when I bet…..I don’t think my $10 across made him drop!..
I think that Steve Haskin’s analysis sums up this year’s Belmont perfectly. I won’t be betting with confidence even if I feel that Sierra Leone will run either first or second.
I like Sierra Leone, but……………………
The Maiden entrant has twice as many starts as the second ML favorite. I was encouraged by another poster to watch the Peter Pan. Protective was blocked in the stretch and lost momentum when having to go around horses. It looked to me like he was moving as well as Antiquarian and The Wine Steward at the end. You know that Tyler Gaffalione would love to win after getting booted off of the favorite.
The 3 horses that were coming back in two weeks ran 1, 2, & 3 in the Preakness. My strategy in the Belmont will be to leave all 3 of those horses out.
I’ll key Sierra Leone in exacta boxes with Antiquarian and Protective.
I’ll also key Sierra Leone in the first and second positions of trifectas with Antiquarian, Protective, and Resilience.
BTW, any column that features the line “the other doesn’t and does” becomes an instant classic. Steve Haskin always has a way with words.
I’m going to bet a trifecta box with Sierra Leone, Mystik Dan, Antiquarian and Mindframe. I typically don’t cheer for or bet on Kentucky and Louisiana based horses, but Mystik Dan is a trooper and I keep remembering Wise Dan every time I try to remember his name, and not the not so far away Mystic River. I don’t get the like for Honor Marie, I predict he’s not going to be with Sierra Leone once he gets going. Seize the Gray is to be respected, he could win again but I won’t be backing him.
I think the pace will be ok, and that this group is not as slow as has been claimed, they just haven’t been running them as fast or as often these days. That goes together.
Discopartner, I think backing Louisiana horses is about to get even more difficult and rare. What are they thinking?!?!?
They have lost their pea pickin little minds down there.
I don’t know, an honest mistake maybe? I’m not into drugs or drug accusations. I like Gulfstream vs Fairgrounds but they do have a long stretch and good grass.