Black-Eyed Preakness
Before getting into handicapping and analysis let’s first look at the cheery side of this year’s Preakness. You have a chance to win some terrific prizes by entering the “Steve Cannon” Preakness Contest that is now UP AND READY. And it’s free of charge. So make sure you check it out and put in your entry. Even if you don’t hit the Grand Prize, which I have to say is pretty awesome, there are three additional prizes that would be Grand Prizes themselves in most contests, especially if you are a Secretariat fan. I am particularly drawn to the third prize, which I am sure Secretariat fans would fight to the death to obtain. Thirty lashes for all those who don’t enter and miss all the fun. ~ Steve Haskin
Black-Eyed Preakness
By Steve Haskin
Before we get into the trivial part of this column, which is handicapping the Preakness, or what is left of it from a quality and public relations standpoint, I have to begin by sadly saying that his year’s second leg of the Triple Crown is a microcosm of what Thoroughbred racing has become – a total mess. You can also call it a PR nightmare, but the truth is it is a residue of racing’s grand scheme to clean up the sport without having a clear vision of what it is doing. One can only hope that the decisions made by racing’s so-called “leaders” result from carefully thought out plans rather than simply appeasing the mistrusting public led by some of the more radical animal activist groups that want to see racing abolished.
I feel this goes deeper in the long run than what anyone chooses to believe about Bob Baffert or whether or not one feels that Medina Spirit was an undeserving winner of the Kentucky Derby. To believe that you would have to be convinced that the miniscule amount of the anti-inflammatory drug involved helped propel him to victory, which I doubt any reasonable thinking person would believe. The bottom line is that the horse will be allowed to run, which he most certainly deserves to do.
It would take an entire column to discuss racing’s woes and the morass of ongoing questions regarding this case, and this is meant to be a handicapping and analysis column. Because of that we have to first address Medina Spirit and the distinct possibility of him being stripped of his Derby victory, a move that no doubt will be forthcoming with a split sample positive and then the appeals that likely will follow. This would be another mess and unfair to the horse and the small-time breeder and pinhooker who wrote the Cinderella story that warmed the hearts of so many people following the Derby.
“The whole thing is just awful,” said Christy Whitman, who purchased the colt for a meager $1,000 and who was featured in my post-Derby column. “People don’t realize that this affects more than just Baffert. It takes away from the horse, who won because he’s simply a good horse and not for any other reason. It has been established that this is not a performance enhancing drug. Human athletes take the same types of medications all the time to stay healthy, not to cheat. I hate it when people say that the horses are being drugged and abused. This is insanity pointing fingers and calling names when we don’t even understand the terminology or have the facts. Just like everything in America, keep us divided, don’t let people unite in something positive. No, let’s crash it all down and bury racing with it.”
Just a point of interest, Medina Spirit tested positive with a level of 21 picograms per milliliter of blood or plasma (a picogram is one-trillionth of a gram). The U.S. Trotting Association and the Harness Racing Medication Collaborative have done extensive studies on the threshold level of betamethasone. When their panel of eminent veterinarians recommended to the ACRI, as well as 16 state Thoroughbred racing commissions, including Kentucky, that the appropriate threshold should be set at 100 picograms and recommended a withdrawal guideline of 6 ½ days instead if 14 days no action was taken. Curiously, Kentucky last August lowered the betamethasone threshold level from 10 picograms to zero. Their study also found that among the biggest environmental substance offenders are dexamethasone and betamethasone. Dr. Andy Roberts, a director of the USTA and member of the HRMC and the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission’s Equine Drug Research Council, said, “Betamethasone does not mask pain and does not improve performance when administered by a veterinarian at HRMC recommended levels. It acts to prevent cellular destruction.”
In other words, Medina Spirit won the Kentucky Derby on his own with no help at all from betamethasone. But to show the thinking of some members of the media, Medina Spirit in the weekly NTRA poll was ranked fourth behind the three horses he defeated in the Derby. And what is even more glaring is that he received 18 first-place votes compared to six for No. 1-ranked Mandaloun and eight for No. 2-ranked Essential Quality. That means that a good number of voters likely eliminated Medina Spirit from their Top 10 altogether, as if the horse not only didn’t deserve the victory, but is now a nonentity in the 3-year-old division.
Let’s just look at what we are dealing with regarding this year’s Preakness. You had the delay of the post position draw a full day to determine whether Medina Spirit would be allowed to run in the race. You had the (for now) Derby-winning trainer not showing up for the race, and wisely so, to avoid the media frenzy, which no doubt would detract from the actual race. You had the possible new Derby winner Mandaloun not running back in the Preakness despite having only one race in the past eight weeks and running basically half a race in his start before that. If a horse who had a six-week vacation prior to the Derby is not running back because it is too quick, it would be a sad state of affairs. You also had the Derby third-place finisher Hot Rod Charlie high-tailing back to California immediately after the race and the fourth-place finisher Essential Quality, who had a wide trip and likely would have been favored in the Preakness, joining stablemate Mandaloun in the barn.
Brad Cox, trainer of Mandaloun and Essential Quality, no doubt is doing what he feels is best for his two horses, but it is still sad that neither horse will be participating when history has shown that the Derby is far and away the most successful prep for the Preakness.
In any event we only have three horses from the 19 who started in the Kentucky Derby. I had been hoping to land a nice price on the Derby sixth-place finisher Midnight Bourbon, who I thought would be fifth choice behind Medina Spirit, Mandaloun, Essential quality, and Concert Tour. But he now looks to be a bet-down third choice, maybe even second choice. But even as third choice, Betonline has him at 6-1, which I will take. His morning line odds are 5-1.
Here are the boxes that MIDNIGHT BOURBON checks off:
Bad start (check) – His hind end slipped coming out of the gate causing him to break slowly, and he was bumped pretty hard a few strides later. He wasn’t ridden that aggressively to try to move up into a contending position near the lead. Instead he dropped as far back as 14th, and this is a horse who has never been worse than third at the half or three-quarters in any race, with his only stakes victory being wire-to-wire.
Ground loss (check) – He ran 56 feet farther than Medina Spirit, which pretty much makes up the eight lengths he was beaten.
Jockey (check) – Certainly nothing wrong with Mike Smith, but as mentioned he wasn’t very aggressive with him and he now gets the red-hot Irad Ortiz.
Thoro-Graph pattern (check) – After pairing up “8s” he moved forward and then paired up “5s.” Once again he moved forward pairing up “3s.” With three straight pair-ups he should follow the same pattern and move forward several points once again. That should put him right up there with anyone, including Medina Spirit, who ran a “1 ½” in the Derby following four straight “3s.”
Gameness (check) – We saw what he could do when in front in the LeComte Stakes, turning back the challenges of Mandaloun and Proxy. Even in the Derby he dug in and wouldn’t let Keepmeinmind get by him, and Keepmeinmind was rallying strongly from 19th.
History (check) – If you’re leery about betting horses in the Preakness who finished out of the money in the Derby, just remember these names – Little Current, Snow Chief, Hansel, Point Given, Louis Quatorze, Pine Bluff, Tank’s Prospect, Tabasco Cat, Personality, Shackleford, Oxbow, and War of Will. All won the Preakness after finishing out of the money in the Derby. In fact, Tank’s Prospect, who finished seventh, beaten 11 lengths, and Louis Quatorze, who finished 16th, beaten 24 lengths, both came back to set Preakness records before Secretariat’s time was revised years later.
Because this is such a mixed bag of horses I am going to rely again on the old Derby Rankings and bet a $1 trifecta box with the five horses in the field who have been ranked in the Top 12 – MEDINA SPIRIT, MIDNIGHT BOURBON, RISK TAKING, KEEPMEINMIND, and CONCERT TOUR. If Risk Taking and/or Keepmeinmind can sneak in there we’re looking at a good score, and both should be closing late.
I have always been a fan of RISK TAKING because he reminds me of the horses they used to refer to as hickory – tough, sound, hard-knocking horses. You just have to throw out his Wood Memorial, which I am doing, blaming it on the extremely slow and heavy surface with a nasty kickback. Pimlico should be a welcome change, especially breaking from post 9 where he shouldn’t get any kickback. He looks like an interesting mid-pack threat with Jose Ortiz replacing Irad. And if the Wood Memorial was an anomaly and he returns to his Withers Stakes form then he could wind up as a big overlay with morning line odds of 15-1.
As I did in the Derby I am looking for KEEPMEINMIND to be closing late and hopefully pick up a piece of it. He also is 15-1 on the morning line, but could be higher than that.
As for the Baffert pair, Medina Spirit again will be the inside speed breaking from post 3. Concert Tour will have to bust out of there from the 10 post, so we could have those two vying for the early lead, which is not what you want to see from entrymates. Midnight Bourbon will be ridden more aggressively by Ortiz and he will be in the fray as well. I don’t know if he can outrun the two Baffert colts, but he will pressing them throughout. The unknown factor will be the Japanese invader France Go d Ina. I have no clue where he will be. The Chad Brown pair of Risk Taking and Crowded Trade and the Wayne Lukas-trained Ram should be in mid-pack with Keepmeinmind, Rombauer, and Unbridled Honor launching their runs from the back of the pack.
Two big “ifs” are Crowded Trade, with only three career starts, and Unbridled Honor, who is improving with every race. Both are certainly capable of running big races, but the jury is still out how good they are. I do like the jockey changes, with Javier Castellano replacing Eric Cancel on Crowded Trade and Luis Saez replacing Julien Leparoux on Unbridled Honor. And remember, Mike Smith will replace Joel Rosario on Concert Tour.
So, we’re keeping it simple this time by going with the aforementioned trifecta box of 2,3,5,9,10. A win bet on Risk Taking (9) for an overlay. And exactas of 3,4,5, 6, 8, 9, 10 with the 2 (Keepmeinmind) hoping we don’t need a telescope to find him early this time.
So as Aldonza said to Don Quixote in Man of La Mancha, “Remove the clouds from your eyes and see me as I really am.” For a little while at least let’s remove the black clouds from our eyes and see what is still a classic race that we hope will be an entertaining and competitive event.
Congratulations to all the prize winners. I’m a newby at amateur handicapping and am in awe of the talented people who won the grand prizes. I can see I’ve got lots to learn.
Rombauer first horse to win the Preakness having never won a dirt race since 1888….
Rombauer FIFTH El Camino Real Stakes to win Preakness since yhe 1980’s….Gate Dancer, Tanks Prospect, Tabasco Cat, Snow Chief, Rombauer….
Hey, congrats on Rombauer. Keepmeinmind didn’t do to bad either, he was making up ground but not like Rombauer. Freight train move should get him some attention at Belmont.
Looking for Get Her Number to run back. He and Rombauer ran one-two in the Norfolk.
Great info; I believe all became Champions…didn’t know that race was significant though changing from Dirt to Synthetic has changed it’s status.
i don’t think Tabasco Cat became a champion, he won the Preakness, Belmont…and was beaten a nose in the Breeders Cup Classic—and only was able to finish 3rd in the 3yo Eclipse balloting—behind Holy Bull and Concern, tough year!
Very good weekend for me Matthew, to tune of 6k.
Davids—SMB did you proud. Congrats!
Yes sceptre, St Mark’s Basilica showed the progression you hope for with that brilliant turn of foot to put them away. The Prix du Jockey Club is probably the extent he wants to go, at three anyway but you never know. The ground was obviously is an advantage.
Philomene was disappointing but you felt Fabre was a little ambitious cutting back in distance and expecting same. You would expect Philomene to bounce back in the Prix de Diane she is too good.
Rombauer will be going to the Belmont, and I’m glad to hear it. Turf can wait. Not only did Rombauer win going away, he did it in one of the fastest final times ever in the Preakness. He certainly gave the impression that 12 furlongs isn’t out of his reach.
Reminded me of Little Current in ’74 Preakness
Des,
El Kabong is running in the 9th at Churchill today. He’s the chalk so he is doing something right in the mornings.
Thanks, should still be decent odds. I’ll key him in the P-3 and P-4
Nice second against tough field. Winner next time!
I think so, that was a tough adversary, and he didn’t get the best ride either. He looks fit, and ran well.
He has chance for sure.
I thought I would put this out there: See what happens when Medina is Off the Juice!!!!!
Seriously? Nothing was wrong in the Derby or here. The winner today was a fresh horse coming off a layoff.
I am just thrilled for Rombauer since he won this year’s El Camino Real Derby at my “local” track, Golden Gate Fields!
Congratulations to all who had Rombauer as the winner. I was very happy to see Mike McCarthy, a smaller trainer, win the Preakness. His comments after the race were very moving. You could see how much this meant to him. Both Medina Spirit and Midnight Bourbon ran really good races. No shame at all in their races. They just tired each other out and couldn’t hang on at the end. It was a fast Preakness. Flavien Pratt, one of the best jockeys out there, played it perfectly. Rombauer won convincingly. Looking forward to the Belmont. I would be surprised to see any of these horses there except Rombauer. The Belmont will be important in the male, 3 yr. old HOTY race. It could be we have different winners for all three TC races and the BCC.
I agree about McCarthy. Obviously this was his biggest win ever. So deserved, and Rombauer not only peaked at the right time, he was managed to peak in the Preakness.
The Belmont should be a humdinger. I think Medina Spirit was just too tired after his Derby effort.
Yes tired but horses are very intuitive creatures. They pick up quickly on the moods of the people around them. There was no way they could have kept that away from him. That being said those horses that didn’t win still have a lot of racing left in them. Some of them need a break others on to the next leg. This might also be another upset year as the winner of the Belmont might not win HOTY. See how the summer stakes play out and the BC.
That makes sense to me. Had to be a shock to his “people” the horse could feel.
Agreed!
Had the exacta a few times based on that workout I told everyone to watch
Congratulations! I know there a few posters who were touting Rombauer. I was really happy to see Midnight Bourbon hang in there.
Congrats, Steve. As soon as they crossed the wire, I was sure you had the exacta based on what you shared with us. Good job.
The Belmont will be VERY interesting. Mandaloun, Rombauer, Essential Quality, Rock Your World, Midnight Bourbon, Hot Rod Charlie, Known Agenda, Promise Keeper….
I agree. If Malathaat shows up, even more interesting.
Definitely!
Let’s not forget Rebel Romance (impressive UAE Derby winner) who, as far as I know, is still planning to run in the Belmont. Also, France Go de Ina, who needed his race in the Preakness, is pointed for the Belmont chasing a million dollar bonus if he wins. Based on today’s performance, he doesn’t look to have much of a chance.
Maybe the colt with the mysterious name just needs to get acclimated.
Yea, at least for the next three weeks, he won’t be using his frequent flyer miles. Maybe they’ll order out for sushi just to make him feel at home. lol
Owners are talking turf with Rombauer, the New York Turf Triple, horse has turfed well….Owners argued El Camino over Robert Lewis Stakes, Preakness over Derby….won arguments with trainer, refreshing to see knowledgeable owners make decisions that protect their horse—50-50 regarding the Belmont I think they go turfing….
UPDATE! I was wrong, they’re headed to Elmont, for the Belmont.
The curse continues……
Derby:
Bourbonic, Brooklyn Strong, Dynamic One
Pat Day:
Prevalence
Preakness:
Crowded Trade, Risk Taking
I think that we can close the book on the Wood Memorial. All of the above ran in the Wood and “shit the bed” in their next start.
If Aqueduct is incapable of converting their winter track for their signature race, then NYRA should move the race to the opening week of Belmont. This year’s running of the Wood over that deep heavy track was an embarrassment. As Steve mentioned the week after, you can potentially ruin a horse by running a race in those conditions.
Congrats to Rombauer. He was on his toes in the post parade signaling a big effort. Nice price for the win. Good call, Steve.
No top Derby contender will run in next year’s Wood.
I agree Eddie, unless they perform due diligence on their racing surface.
Glad to hear you made a profit betting Rombauer. Keep it rolling!
Thanks!
i feel good about my analysis…..really good………i feel a little bad about the 30 minutes looking at Rombauers replays…..almost……….i bet too big to guess………but pretty much right about the race…..very interesting race…
I’m conservative…..would normally skip belmont. But i probably would go, because the division right now is weak….
this race is worth millions to this horse if he wins….i think you gotta run…….if you wait, someone might get good….
Even though you said workouts mean nothing I told everyone to watch Rombauer’s last work and his gallop-out. I bet him strictly off that work. one of the best I’ve seen.
Had a win ticket on Rombauer for the Preakness Steve based on your workout information you gave to us. Thank you again Steve for all your hard work, and sharing the priceless info you give us.
My wife really loves you as well. haha
So ….his workout was why he won?…….nice……..
Congratulations to Rombauer and the connections. Just love when the homebreds and a less well known trainer and a closer wins the big races. No denying the potency of the Storm Cat line that cross with Candy Ride. Only thing I got right was Midnight Bourbon taking 2nd. That’s OK though…clean race, everyone looked OK on the gallop out.
MB is one tough colt. He’ll win some big races.
I think so. He certainly has the pedigree!
Hate to say I told you,so I won’t. Will say had $500 on winner.
Congratulations. I should have heeded Steve’s advice about Rombauer’s workout but I had already entered the contest and could not change it.
that was supposed to be a thumb’s up, lol.
Thank you.
5 horses in the Preakness had never run on lasix—finished one….two….three….four.
I think that is awesome!
Played two big bets this weekend—Army Wife yesterday and Rombauer today—and they both won for fun! Owners are standing there IN SHOCK!
Things fell into place for Rombauer….Beyers were lite, for sure…horse was peaking today!
Congratulations
congrats!,,,,,,on thurs i was liking him…..but in the end, decided to just watch
Had Rombauer also.
congrats you had him way more than I did, I liked him but was pleasantly surprised, did not “see” that coming!
A good weekend.
Congrats to all fellow Rombauer backers! I wasnt close with exactas, but at least I finally made a profit.
Congrats to you, EddieF! I got two out of four in my super . . . I don’t think that gets you much. Will be interested to see who wins the Steve Cannon contest and how close they came.
Thanks! LOL. I certainly won’t be in the running. My top 4 in the contest were Rombauer, Risk Taking, Midnight Bourbon, Medina Spirit.
To paraphrase Meat Loaf, three out of four ain’t bad.
Ha ha! Maybe I do have a chance! 🙂
Your top four is SOLID!
I got one in the Steve Cannon…Midnight Bourbon.
had Rombauer 1st, Keepmeinmind 2nd I think Medina 3rd not sure about that…had Ram 2nd to last and France go de Ina last….France beat a few today….
Had $500 on him.
Congratulations Mike!!
Good seeing u Paula!
Congratulations!
Thank you.
Has anyone thought about what will happen if Medina runs bad?……..how long you will hear the hate?…….it will be ugly
i FEEL LIKE joshua……..THE only way to win……is to not play the game………..
Greetings, Professor Falken. Shall we play a game?
I was wondering if anyone would “get” the reference………lol…….well done
Just because I am a fan of John Spencer.
Do you know how shocking these odds are?……medina was 12-1…..midnight was 13-1…….medinda surprises wins……midnight runs bad………now midnight is fav?
When have you ever seen this EVER?……………
I played Rombauer across the board…and ex/tri boxed Rombauer, Keepmeinmind, Crowded Trade NEDED PACE HELP!!!!!
Fist bump!
Bob has retained the services of Howard, Howard and Fine, attorneys at law…..spokesperson Curly Q Link released this statement: “Im a victim of soikenstance”!
Nyuk nyuk nyuk!
I’m gonna stay out……i literally cannot find a horse i think will run well…..the top 3 stick out…..i have all not peaking…i expect a large winning margin if one of them win…..
But, you’re an “expert” remember?
Good one.
Thanks! At least a few understand.
Can’t you just have some FUN!
Some on here take themselves way too seriously, case in point- scroll up.
Totally off topic but a California Chrome colt, Charles Chrome” held on for 3rd in race 8 (turf) today at Pamlico. It was his first stakes race and he was coming off a layoff since November. Thought he had the race won after leading from the start. At number of Chrome’s progeny that are racing are doing very good at the smaller tracks on dirt and turf. Yesterday Sunflower Road, Arlington, Race 3, took second in a photo finish.
My husband who does not follow horse racing told me this morning that the guys where he works all say that Ram is going to win. Maybe I should have waited until this morning I fill the form out, LOL.
No chance!
LOL, well his work friends do bet on horse racing and according to him they do win money. They asked him who I had (they know I follow horse racing) and he said heck if he knew.
Linda,alot of people say alot of things and this horse has no shot. He’s being thrown to the wolves.
Do they work at the U.S. Bureau of Engraving and Printing? A ton of money is being bet on Ram.
HA HA…no. If they did I would certainly take advantage of that. (just kidding).
For what it is worth this is my order of finish for Preakness as entered on “Steve Cannon”: Medina Spirit, Midnight Bourbon, Concert Tour, Unbridled Honor.
I’m banking on the three speedy favorites to do no better than third. I expect a speed duel. How can any of the three jockeys not know that their horses have won their route stakes on the front end? They will all be trying to get the lead. Exacta box with Crowded Trade (currently 8-1), Rombauer (12-1), and Risk Taking (12-1). I haven’t decided what my WIN bet will be. All three maybe! 😮
My juicy super from my Steve Cannon entry this morning:
Medina Spirit
Unbridled Honor
Rombauer
Crowded Trade
Be on the safe side. Don’t bet it.
The key to the 2021 Preakness is Irad, if he sends Midnight after Medina there can be closers….if he doesn’t…then Medina is going to be very tough, Irad is too good to sit back off the Bob duo….
THANK YOU, Irad!
Hello Steve, looks like a sunny day for the Preakness. The wise guy horse Midnight Bourbon is an underlay at 5-2. Medina Spirit is an overlay at 3-1. I will only use these 2 in my P5. I like Crowded Trade to finish as hi as 2nd. I like Concert Tour to finish as high as 3rd. I think the bomber France de Go could fill out the TRI or Super. I will use those 5 in my TRI and SF bets. Here’s my P5. 5,8/4,11,13/4,5,7,8/5,8/3,5. Safe trips to all. IMO Medina Spirit us the one to beat in the Preakness, and Concert Tour is overrated and might hang on for 3rd. Safe trips to all.
Another great column.
I am a big fan of Medina Spirit. When many jumped off of him because of his Santa Anita Derby performance, I told them he was still a very credible Kentucky Derby threat. And after this little horse that did won I was quite happy for his connections.
That said, former Kentucky Horse Racing Commission veterinarian Dr. Scollay has stated that it is impossible from a blood sample to determine whether the betamethasone in Medina Spirit had a performance enhancing impact because blood tests do not measure a drug’s saturation into muscle and tissue where it could provide the greatest benefit. Thus, it is possible that Medina Spirit’s performance was enhanced.
The reality is that performance enhancement is not necessary for disqualification. Overage regulations are there to not only ensure an even playing field, but to protect the horse and rider. Personally, I hope the split sample comes back negative and he stays up. However, if the two samples agree, fairness dictates disqualification.
Well stated, Pebbles. You’re probably aware that the KHRC places medications in four classes: Class A drugs/medications “have the highest potential to influence performance.” Class B drugs/medications “have a high potential to influence performance … but less potential than Class A drugs.” Class C and D drugs/medications “have a lesser potential to influence performance.” But a violation in any class is subject to disqualification. Betamethasone is in Class C. A split sample “negative” following a “positive” is rare, so we should all expect a DQ.
Great comments Peb!
It’s the Bad info….that drives me crazy…..Below, people said Medina looked sore…coming off track after going around .anyone ever has a swollen ankle?……you are sore BEFORE…..YOU move better after warmed up……you guys are seeing things
I heard that the amount of the drug in MS wouldn’t merit a DQ at his home track.
2012 seven horse deaths at Hollywood Park, no real reason ever was revealed….Santa Anita Derby, Arkansas Derby, Kentucky Oaks, Kentucky Derby positives……gets angry at the presser, says he’s being cancelled…..Jerry Hollendorfer was cancelled for a lot less….it’s not the dog keeps eating my homework its the dog ate my PROJECT, cuz these are Racings biggest days….this is the face of our sport now. I recall the Game on Dude Big Cap, where he bumps Seduko twice late, and Bob ran to the stewards phone and grabbed it and pleaded his case, perhaps telling them about Chantal being the first female jockey to win the race, WHO KNOWS WHAT HE SAID, OR WHY….as Mandella look at him, in shock—trainers don’t EVER do that, and I wonder, Steve, if Bob doesn’t have a ” gaming the system ” attitude?
TC winner Secretariat sired a Preakness winner with Risen Star. TC winner American Pharoah could do the same today with Ram.
Keepmeinmind, Medina Spirit, Midnight Bourbon, Rombauer have all never been treated with lasix….Ram will be coming off lasix, having run on it his last five races….also Risen Star was a real good horse!
D Wayne is The Man!
Rombauer-Ram box.
No.
Rom. is the winner.
Wish there were more reasoned takes like this in mainstream media Steve!
With that said, related or unrelated, Medina Spirit looks very sore to me this week. I have been meaning to go back to derby week videos to see if this is normal for the horse.
I saw a video of him coming off the track after work-out and multiple people commented he was sore on the back end. Others said that he always walks that way. Only thing I noticed was it did appear he dropped his head when he stepped out on front end which can be indicative of soreness etc. However, the video was in my opinion too short to make an “armchair vet” decision that he is sore on the front or the back.
The similarities between Crowded Trade and 2017 Preakness winner Cloud Computing are numerous and astounding. I’ll have to throw him in the mix with Rombauer and Risk Taking.
Jay Hovdey ended his BH column, dated yesterday, ” Welcome to the Black Eyed Preakness.”
Brilliant people think alike. Lol
“Good writers borrow from other writers. Great writers steal from them outright.”
Rombauer is a homebred from a 2-mare breeding program that rarely keeps their babies. Won first start on turf….won on Tapeta…2nd by 3/4 on dirt in the American Pharoah…..3rd Bluegrass….not too shabby for the owners, who decided to overrule the trainer and skip the Lewis, waiting 2 weeks for the El Camino—which was the right move, he won …..paid for The Preakness, another good move was skipping the Derby….if he wins, I sense another Haskin story coming! Mehopes.
We could get a Rombauer story even if he loses.
The picture of them with their big horse….sort of looks a bit like Dr J Trotter and his wife, from the “Let it Ride” movie!
With you Steve that starkly minute traces – picograms – of a non-performance enhancing substance found in an ointment applied to treat hind end dermatitis had no effect on Medina Spirit’s Derby performance. However, in gauging opinion from what I’ve read on racing websites, we are in a minority. I’m sure Baffert is an incredibly busy man and I don’t blame him for not reading the label but rather lay fault on his vet who he was relying on for professional expertise and oversight of the care of one of his Derby horses. Besides his vet think Barnes or other of his staff to whom Baffert delegated authority should have been the ones to pick up on the problem with the ointment’s contents.
Baffert complained about the very fine precision of today’s testing which leaves horses so prone for positives for picograms of substances acquired from environmental contamination. That seems to be what happened to Charlatan at Oaklawn as he picked up lidocaine in the test barn and the Arkansas Racing Commission seem to have concluded likewise in reversing the DQ as another horse in the race also tested positive for lidocaine though under the regulatory limit. How do you feel about the validity of Baffert’s complaint ?
As for the Preakness, would agree with you that Midnight Bourbon’s Derby 6th place finish was not all that bad considering the slow break and the bumping that caused him to be shuffled back to 14th. Ortiz likely will ride him more aggressively than Smith to assure he’s near the pace stalking the Baffert duo without having to face all the traffic problems Smith faced in the bloated Derby field. Have to believe the race is between these three horses. Think with Irad aboard MB has a solid shot but after reading your back story on Medina Spirit and because Johnny V’s on his back the Baffert horse is my sentimental favorite. I’d love to see Johnny, who Jerry Bailey called the best position rider he’s ever seen and a great tactician, finally win a Triple Crown.
Finally, if MS wins the Preakness but the split sample results rob him of the Derby, do you think Baffert will run him back in the Belmont ?
Hi William, I think the vet is mostly to blame, but considering Bob’s vow to tighten his barn, he should look at the ingredients of everything he gives his horses or at least ask the vet what he’s giving, especially if its a Derby horse where the rules are very strict. Seems odd to give an ointment for s skin disorder for an month. And it should have been submitted to the Ky. regulatory board as are all prescribed medications that were given to a Derby horse after April 28. This whole mess has me totally confused.
Midnight Bourbon is the favorite after Friday, so no value at all. But I do like him.
Steve, I share your confusion. So does Baffert advise Mr. Zedan to run MS back in the Belmont if he wins the Preakness but is stripped of the Derby victory because the split sample comes back positive ? A de facto TC is better than no TC in my thinking. Your back story on the no longer the favorite MS has made me a fan just like your “Derby Deprived of One of its Greatest Stories” turned me into a diehard Maximum Security follower.
My guess is that iff he loses he skips the Belmont, only because he might not think he’s a mile and a half horse. If he wins the Preakness then comes the cloud of having the Derby taken away. I dont know when the split sample comes back. I’m really not sure what Bob will do. Hard to pass the Belmont after winning the first two, but if he’s stripped before the race I would say he’ll pass the race.
I read it was submitted, 2 dates of when they used it…but i read alot……can’t remember where…..vets DO use this product…. but i agree it doesn’t make sense…….and people don’t seem to have any sense…..not sure which one is more non sensical….
Bit surprising to see so much insightful commentary on the Preakness this year. Thank you to Steve and Secretariat for enabling this to happen. Best wishes to all. May horses and riders all come home safely, and find their best chance. May all of us betting feel we had our best chance, too. And other than that, looking forward to the race. 🙂
Rombauer for win.
Good luck, Mike!
Thanks!
I went bombs away on your contest! Rombauer….Keepmeinmind one/two need a pace collapse!
If one runs big the other should run big as well
Steve….I got lucky and hit the $1.00 superfecta box in the Kentucky Derby using Medina Spirit. Just after the race Churchill Downs claimed it official, and I cashed the ticket.
$9456.00 = before taxes
$6815.00 = after taxes
$1000.00 = after wife.
Do you have any idea if I will have to pay it back? I sure hope not!!
I’ll give you the address….
Hahaha…. good one Matthew. I needed that!
Thats a good comedy routine,, but whatever I make betting goes to the wife, so I hear ya. Better go spend it before the Churchill Downs gestapo comes knocking on your door demanding it back.
I read about the class action lawsuit against Medina’s owner and trainer, by a group of bettors….I would be shocked if doesn’t get tossed ….recall 1973 I think horse name was Knightlander, won on Sat by a nostril…photo was misread by Santa Anita, and on Sunday they announced their error…owner got paid, but bettors lost, because official is official, it’s in the tiny print!
Back at Saratoga in early 80’s they DQ the wrong horse and they corrected it after payouts and class action suit after some time if you had your ticket they paid you but most threw them away.Does anybody remember this.
It was in 1986. But it wasn’t a class-action suit. I couldn’t find anything about an appeal.
ORIGINAL INCIDENT
nytimes[DOT]com/1986/08/09/sports/sports-of-the-times-bad-business-at-saratoga.html
COURT DECISION
nytimes[DOT]com/1986/11/16/sports/sports-people-bettors-get-2d-chance.html
Replace “[DOT]” with a dot.
Could not bring article up but headline is court decision and people get second chance and I think if you had ticket you got paid.Will ask a friend.
The court story says the suit was brought by 11 bettors. It doesn’t mention class action or that all bettors were entitled to the payout.
I guess you have to be registered at NYT site to see the articles. 🙁
Just spoke to my friend who still has ticket,court ruled no payout,would not be fair to players who discarded tickets.
A $1 dollar super box would be a 24 dollar bet at a minimum. For it to be a signer, you would have to have profited over 600 dollars per 1 dollar bet. So any payout under 14400 should not have been a signer that needed to be taxed or reported. But as you say you were taxed, and your winnings were reported, you will have to claim your earnings on your return. The good news is that you can also claims loses up to your winnings. So if you were to claim loses of up to 9456 for the year, then the amount of taxes you already paid 2,641 would then be deducted from the amount you owe, but you must be able to document the loses you claim. The 9456 may or may not push you into a higher tax bracket, but the bottom line is you were taxed at 28 %. If your tax bracket is below that then the taxes you paid on those earnings will help you regardless of the losses you claim but do claim loses.
Brody, My bad. That ratio is 300 to 1, not 600 to 1 as I noted so you were taxed correctly for profiting over 7,200 on a 24 dollar bet.
Thanks El Kabong… I didn’t realize you could still claim your losses. Holy cow I have plenty…lol
Good Luck today everyone, and I hope you all cash in winning tickets. Also hoping for a safe trip for all the jockey’s and horses!!
Hard to believe the longest sot on the board in the Preakness is only 18-1 and Ram is 12-1
Highest odds EVER for a Preakness winner: 23-1 on Master Derby in 1975.
In 2013, when Orb was the 3-5 favorite in a 9-horse field, the highest odds were 22-1. Second highest was 15-1 on the winner Oxbow. All of the other runners were between 8-1 and 11-1.
Steve, you mentioned earlier that this is a somewhat slow bunch in this year’s Preakness. One of the slowest from what I understand is the Japanese horse, France Go De Ina. He intrigues me in that he was beaten by Rebel Romance in the UAE Derby. If Rebel Romance were in the Preakness, I think he’d have this group for lunch. Now, France Go De Ina has his sights set on running in the Belmont where he’s eligible to receive a $1,000,000 bonus if he wins. He will be hard pressed to earn that bonus as he faces a rematch with Rebel Romance who is also expected to run in the Belmont. The Japanese connections of FGDI appear confident and he did give a good appearance on the track with a fluid stride in his 4f work (of course the rider falls off immediately after). Joel Rosario, who rode him in Dubai, has the call back in the Preakness. Do his people know something we don’t? Are they using the Preakness as a warm up for the Belmont? He has stamina in his breeding but will, in all likely hood, face a tougher bunch in New York. The mystery deepens…. I’m beginning to feel like Mr. Moto with so many questions needing answers. Please provide your take on FGDI’s chances in the Preakness Haskin san.
I think you hit it at the end about a prep for the Belmont. BTW he broke horribly in the UAE Derby. Thats why he didnt show his customary early speed
Thanks Steve. I forgot to mention his bad break in the UAE Derby. Rosario had mentioned that in an article I read and I think that’s why he wants another shot with this horse. I’ll put a modest WPS on him in the Preakness and then look forward to the Belmont.
I find France Go de Ina intriguing as well, and just for the hell of it, I’ll key him on top with a mix of longshots and favorites in the 2nd, 3rd and 4th slots, in one of my super wagers. Something like; 7/ 1-3-6-10.
Maybe Mr. Rosario will pay me back for the bath I took with RYW, in the Derby. 🙂
I hear ya, Bill. I was counting on RTW and Midnight Bourbon to attend the Derby pace, but with bad starts, Medina Spirit was left with a comfortable lead sans pressure. One thing about Rosario, he’s very good at payback. He’s one of two jocks (L Saez, the other) who keep my bottom line from being in the tank. Good luck with your bets.
p.s. One thing that I’ve been unable to come up with is where does France Go de Ina’s name come from? Just curious.
I was wondering about his name as well. If there’s anyone out there that might know how France Go de Ina got his name, please let Dewey Hebert and I know.
Thanks.
There is a good chance we see a big winning margin……….this field is bad…….and to me, they look to run even worse…….i dont like CT much, but if he bounces back?…..could win by 10…..or if medina fires?…..he could win by 10…….im pretty suse 1 or those will not fire….i have both not running best…
Concert Tour could win…or he could lose. Medina Spirit could win…or he could lose. Ditto for all others.
There will be mostly losers,and just one winner. Unless there’s a dead heat. Then there could be two winners, unless it’s a three way dead heat.
Thanks Prof and Eddie for such insightful predictions. Are you going to lay money on you prognostications? LOL!
I’m definitely going with my predictions. Unless I don’t.
Ever been wrong on a horse?…..if im wrong on medina. he wins…..if i’m wrong on CT …..he could win…..those 2 on paper are much the best……
Spendthrift farm………is having a bad year…………bough 50% of keepmeinmind…..the horse has run shockingly bad……and Rock your world………….you cannot hav worst results after huge money than this……
you should save those comments until Rock Your world runs in the Belmont. Bad move by Spendthrift because RYW lost all chance at the start? When you have Into Mischief in the stallion barn you dont have a bad year.
That is why IS ……..IS the word i chose………….If can always happen……..If they could get the money back…..they would…..it has to be alot…..i’m not as high on him as you…….yes…..if he wins 20 in a row…….it was good…..IT hasnt happened yet…..
As for Keepmeinmind…….i dont understand how he can run 3 horrid races, and they can’t find out why…..he was really good…..if i owned him, i wouldve stopped after the first bad one….he now runs him back in 2 weeks……very odd how bad he is running….he was my fav 2 yr old……what the heck is wrong?
He was never fast on the speed ratings. But in his defense his whole year was messed up by the closing of Oaklawn, He didnt run badly in the Derby and could finally be rounding back in form.
Have you looked at Spendthrift’s entire record? Cherry-picking two of their horses isn’t much of an argument.
Current odds
Midnight Bourbon 5-2
Medina Spirit 7-2
Concert Tour 4-1
I knew he was going to be bet down
i told you…….i frequent alot of sites…..it is crazy…..everyone picks him……i have all horses running bad…..still looking…i cannot explain his race……he showed nothing……no move at any point…..i dont even think the trouble was that bad……i thought i would be picking him, but dont know…..why is medina not 3-5?…..on paper he looks like cinch….i may skip race
No move, really? He came from 14th after a horrible start to finish 6th. Thats no move?
He ran a pretty even race for the last half mile: 7 3/4 lengths back after 6f, 6 lengths back after 1m, 7 3/4 lengths back at the stretch call, and 8 1/4 behind at the finish. I guess it say he didn’t pack it in after the horrible start.
Usually …a horse with speed, will break slow, and at least make a move and maybe hang………..i dont call what he did a move….i dont even see alot of trouble…..he lost by many in a weak derby….this preakness is so weak, he better run well…..
Watch the first three jumps, he’s practically last…I’m glad he wasn’t ridden hard, save it for the Belmont, as for Keepmeinmind…I like him…
missed 23 days training at Oaklawn in Feb….last race was better than his other 2021 races…
13 days
I bet Midnight Bourbon in the derby. Like a sucker, I bought into Assmussen’s confidence and talks of him standing out physically over my analysis of his talent level, which going into the derby was slowly improving, but not yet. Not yet.
Sucker? Did you see the trip he had?
I guess we saw it different Steve. He got pinched pretty good at the start (maybe 5 bad on a scale of 10), but didn’t even come close to threatening the top 5. How does he not pass a single horse the entire backstretch??
He ran 56 feet farther than the winner. That is a lot
You lost a bet. That’s all. If you’re a typical bettor, you lose most of the time. If you’re like me, you lose nearly all of the time.
Eddie F you tell it well.
i expected he would be my pick, because i have the baffert 2 running just avg………but i agree with you……he really didnt have that much trouble….no move……not much……i cant see why he ran that bad…..
Thanks, Steve, for bringing some sanity to this whole mess. Not what any horse racing fan likes to see for the sport, but the distortions in the mainstream media would be laughable if they weren’t so destructive to the image of horse racing. I don’t know what Baffert did or did not know prior to administering the ointment, but I have to believe he isn’t stupid enough to deliberately try to “dope” a horse in the biggest race that he so clearly loves to win. Nonetheless, he is responsible for the condition of his horses and this all could have been avoided if he had simply READ THE LABEL. Your info on betamethasone from the USTA is new to me and quite informative; I wish this were more widely publicized.
Anyway, I’m going to be stubborn and go with Medina Spirit to take the second leg of the Triple Crown. This doesn’t look like an exceptionally strong field, and I don’t see any standout challengers, except maybe Midnight Bourbon and Crowded Trade. At this point, all I’m really hoping for is a cleanly run race, no interference or breakdowns, and no post-race positive test results.
I cannot understand how he didnt look at the label all the way up to the Derby and even more so why the vet didnt tell him there was a banned steroid in the ointment. Doesnt make sense. And why wasnt it submitted to the regulatory board? I thought all prescribed medications had to be submitted
Is it a substance banned from California or other venues like Kentucky has zero tolerance? Also, i thought i read that MS had a pre test that was negative on all accounts?
What did you just post?……do you think Ottomax is banned in cali?…….what is banned in cali?……..grrrr
Steve,
I do understand that there are certain groups out there trying to bring down the horse racing industry, but the above article is indefensible. You sound like a Baffert apologist.
I may not agree with the article (or I may–beside the point) but it is a well-supported argument with evidence, data and expert opinion from those in the industry. What you got?
Well only if we could use that argument every time a rule or law is broken.
You may disagree but his point is valid. It’s not a performance enhancing drug and no one would use it as such. It’s the equivalent of a a roach in your ashtray vs. a kilo of coke in your trunk.
Doesn’t matter – the rules are the rules. Don’t like them — don’t play or work to change them.
Remember this was found in his system at the time of testing which Baffert(30 years of competing in big races) knows when the tests are exactly done and how much time a horse needs to clean his system. One can only imagine what’s being thru Medina’s system when he’s not subject to testing or is given time to clean his system.
rules are rules?……..
I thought there was test prior to the KD that cleared MS…i guess that doesnt count….
seems they only test for the things that matter on the pre test……..which is pretty ironic………the after is alot of things also ….that dont matter………
Rules aren’t rules?
Carole, good remark!
Nice! Best 80’s idiom I’ve heard in a long time. Wait a sec, are you speaking from experience and if so, was it the early 80’s or late 70’s?
Its about the horse, not the trainer. Where is the defense of Baffert or apologizing? You read into something what you want to. This is all about Medina Spirit being the best horse. If you believe he won because of that ointment then there is nothing to discuss with you. Hate Baffert hate the horse. I acknowledged he likely will be disqualified if the split sample comes back positive. Not arguing with that. Its just a shame the best horse will be deprived of a well earned victory.
Steve, thank you for the reply. I have been reading your articles for over a decade now. Nothing but love and respect! I’m from Canada and we learned the harsh realities of cheating via Ben Johnson and losing the gold medal in the 100 metres in Seoul…so I’m a little bitter lol.
Thanks, Nick. These are volatile times. Now Baffert’s first tested horse gets beats 21 length in the Black Eyed Susan as the 2-1 favorite adding to the suspense tomorrow.
Me too……they label me a Bobblehead……..if it was Cox……i would have same view.
And trolls on other sites , after being told to come here and read Steves Opinion…….were trolled…..they say Steve is in Bafferts circle….that he wrote the book about Baffert………this is where we are in 2021…….truth doesnt matter, everything is slanted, into conspiracy……Everyone is just a label……Bafferts a CROOK……i’M A TROLL……..sTEVE is a bob lover…………we live in a crazy world…..
So true. I couldnt care what those people say.
Wow this Preakness field is BAD. Like allowance level bad except for the Bafferts.
The lack of Derby runners is baffling. Like what are they waiting for? There are only 3 triple crown events a year. You can run your horse you know.
Anyhow, my pick is Medina because the rest of the field is nowhere near the level of a Derby winning horse.
Sad state of affairs that this is the Preakness field this year. Is it the crop? I just can’t figure it out.
It’s not a very good field, but it’s not “bad.” Disappointing as it is, is it really “baffling” that only 3 horses from the Derby are entered? There were only 3 entered in the 2014 and 2016 Preakness. Is 4 that much better? Four Derby runners were entered in 2020, 2019, and 2018. Five of the 10 horses entered for Saturday are graded stakes winners, plus two that came close to winning.
The trend of Derby runners skipping the Preakness has been going on for some time….but it was only 24 years ago when Silver Charm, Captain Bodget and Free House came back from their great Derby run, and they ran a great Preakness, one of the best—and I recall they were standing in the gate forever, as they tried to get the outside horse in there.
Just wanna make a point……..people read this……AND think “man….see?…..they CAN run after 2 weeks”………but guess what?………where was Capt bodgit later? Free House?……follow the bread crumbs…….look at many of the years…..see how many
A scientific study may surprise you. Or not.
it is shockingly bad
running back a grade 1 horse in 2 weeks is very dumb……
Was Baffert dumb when he did it five times and won all five? I guess Lucien Laurin, Billy Turner, and Laz Barrera were dumb, too. Forget the Triple Crown just keep him in the barn.
You can say it…….as much as you want…..it IS bad, and a risk you should never do……how many ran worse in belmont?…..how many went off form…….Justify retired after belmont…..
To cherry pick that they can win, is not the point…..they can……the reason you shouldnt is down the line….no trainer would pick 2 weeks……because they have to, or only did was for big money does not change it is bad……there is a reason they would rather have a month…..to say some have, has nothing to do with this reason…
I am old school, horses are built to run not stay in the barn and race only 4 or 5 times a year.
Horses are Built?……..they are BUILT with skinny legs……they are built to die of accident……nature built them this way. Maybe to feed the other animals . That is more accurate than what you said.
Everyone is wrong?…..that runs once a month?…….
“Maybe to feed the other animals.” LOL. Is that your EXPERT opinion?
And he calls himself a “pro”. Unreal!
Change sports then.
Midnight Bourbon was my Derby horse. No reason to bail now. Time to get back my money and then some.
Thank you for hosting the contest. If I were to be betting the race, I would pick or wheel around the 3 horses that ran in the Derby.
Hey Steve, just posted my entry in the contest. I do pretty well in picking the top four but it is a stretch for me to decide the other 5 entries. Anyway it was fun! Thank you!
Everyone s in the same boat. you just have to get lucky. But just try to get close so you can win one of those other super prizes. Good luck.
If you get a chance go to XBTV and watch Rombauer’s last work especially the gallop-out. It’s pretty spectacular.
A day or two ago I said I was leaning toward Risk Taking and Rombauer. It’s looking more like a couple of definite win bets. Rombauer was sensational in the May 8 work. Whether he’s classy enough at this level, we won’t know until Saturday. But the price is right!
Glad to hear that! Rombauer is lite on numbers, but things have worked out for his connections this year—free pass into the Preakness, easy field—and horse looking good….Steve, his breeding is kind of lite on the female side—he might be one of those deep closers who cannot get more than 9 panels—-but full speed ahead–with Prat and price!
Had this been a one off for the trainer, I would say nothing nefarious is at hand, however, we have seen and heard this song and dance of “contamination” from one “premier” barn for too many times, now. Enough already.
And the picogram argument is not valid: the substance leaves the body quickly, and that is WHY the racing commission used the science and facts to set their level of acceptance. Please acknowledge this fact.
I understand all your points and cant argue with anyone who feels that way. I tried to make this more about the horse and whether h won on his own merit. I dont know enough to determine what goes goes on in a barn and who is at fault. The rules are the rules whether you agree with them or not and I’m just sad that this horse likely is going to stripped of a well-earned victory. hats two Ky. Derby disqualifications in three years. This is where we are now in racing.
I understand that the Kentucky medication rules are in place with more than a single purpose. In addition to ensuring that runners in a race are not benefiting from performance-enhancing drugs, they are trying to keep horses that are being treated with medications for physical or medical issues from entering a race. My concern is that a horse can be disqualified from a win regardless of whether the drugs found in a test were Class A, B, C, or D medications. According to the KHRC, Class A drugs have the “highest potential” to influence performance. Class B drugs have a “high potential” to influence performance. Class C and D drugs, such as Betamethasone, have a “lesser potential” to influence performance. My question is, Is it fair to DQ a horse for Class C/D violations? In those cases, it would be reasonably sufficient to penalize (fine, suspension) the trainer who is responsible for the care of the horse.
You heard contamination……..because it WAS CONTAMINATION when Justify tested pos……….he was right…….so if he was right, why are you complaining?
In the Preakness Stakes Concert Tour, Midnight Bourbon, and Unbridled Honor appeal to me the most for me. As for the other ‘battle,’ the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission will investigate, that’s their job.
This Sunday, at ParisLongchamp, the Poule d’Essai des Poulains and Poule d’Essai des Pouliches will be run with the English 2000 Guineas and 1000 Guineas winners, Poetic Flare and Mother Earth, both in the entries. Both races should be fascinating with St Mark’s Basilica getting the nod over Poetic Flare in the former and Philomene overpowers Mother Earth in the latter. Possible upsetters could be Silvestri in the Poule d’Essai des Pouliches and Policy of Truth in the Poule d’Essai des Poulains.
Moments heureux!!
C’est si bon!
Oui, vos choix?
Je n’ai pas de cheval dans cette course. Bon chance, Davids.
St Mark’s Basilica peut bénéficier d’une piste lourde. Doigts croisés.
Davids, bon appel sur votre choix, St Mark’s Basilica, dans le Poule D’Essai des Poulains.
Merci, une victoire élégante sur le Prix du Jockey Club.
You called it: St. Mark’s Basilica looked to be skimming over the top of the turf, by comparison. Bravo!
Oh yes, the memories of Nureyev flashed by as St Mark’s Basilica accelerated with that turn of foot.
Allow me a moment to indulge in envy of your having such memories.
Noyer le poisson.
Ha ha I followed the Aga Khan’s dispute whose Alissa won the 1989 Oaks but was disqualified for testing positive for hydroxycamphor, a metabolite of the the banned substance camphor. Nothing changed after major attempts by the owner.
Aliysa not Alissa. Autocorrected. Lol. A real bugbear.
itsallgreektome
Yes, very much rooting for Philomene, a real beauty.
Yes, magnifique. Hope the expected rain is only light showers. Really looking forward to both races.
Il pleut, il mouille, C’est la fête à la grenouille…
Thanks for the reminder – both of the races and of the language.
Ha Ha heureusement, ParisLongchamp se draine beaucoup mieux maintenant. Bonne course.
Allons-y!
Per dire il vero, non riesco più parlare il francese, dopo aver imparato l’italiano. Sono davvero infetta. Necessità immergermi nella coltura francese ancora un po’, per farmi ricordare. Non basta, mangiare i piatti ogni tanto.
Je connais le sentiment, j’ai totalement perdu ma maîtrise du néerlandais dans lequel je parlais couramment quand j’étais jeune enfant. Les Néerlandais ne vous parleront anglais que lorsque vous essaierez. ha ha C’est la vie.
La vie en rose, mon ami. What do you find is their motivation for switching from Dutch?
(Bravissimo, Rombauer!)
Mijn vader moest Spaans leren voor een nieuwe baan nadat hij meer dan tien jaar in Nederland had gewoond. Ha ha I had to use a translator for that.
Ha ha so did I. Though I would have had more of a chance if what you wrote was less of a non sequitur. The little time I spent in the Pays-Bas long ago, my professional training enabled me to capitalize on the close relationship between English and Dutch enough to get around in the middle of the night, when nothing was open. Did your mother speak English to you?
Some excellent information in this post after reading all these blogs, very passionate followers Steve. You have taught us a lot, kudos to you. I just hope the morons at Churchill don’t DQ Medina Spirit but but who knows.
My superfecta box is with 5 horses. Concert Tour, Medina Spirit, Midnight Bourbon & Crowded Trade.
Good luck to all.
The only way out of this mess is to come clean. Bob Baffert should have have the book thrown at him. Which means not only a long suspension but, especially, DQing Medina Spirit. Like it or not, Baffert is by far the most recognizable figure in horse racing. Rather than taking that responsibility with utmost seriousness, he (again) chose to take an idiotic risk, this time on the sport’s biggest stage, The Kentucky Derby. An utter and total embarrassment and black eye. One that, who knows, will take how long to heal?
You said you’re using 5 horses, Deacon, but I only count 4. Who’s the 5th horse?
Sorry, Unbridled’s Honor
I wouldn’t assume that all drugs effect all horses the same way, just like with humans.
Some people swear by Tylenol for headaches, other say only Advil helps them.
Why would horses be any different?
Maybe this stuff did wonders for MS, maybe it did nothing.
Problem is you can’t ask him…
I was just thinking, these horses know nothing of all the fuss swirling around them, thankfully! I’ll be making a very uneducated (and probably way off-base) guess for the winners of the race though, cause I love a good contest
There ya go. I hope others follow. We might as well have a little fun, and the prizes are great.
Steve, you already know how much I respect your opinion. Mary Scollay of the thoroughbreddailynews.com wrote a ‘must read article’ that gave a bit of a different take than yours – She said ” First of all, we’re not talking about the sum total of 21 picograms in the entire horse’s body, it’s 21 picograms per milliliter of blood. The horse has an awful amount of blood, probably in excess of 50,000 milliliters( 13 gallons). That also doesn’t measure the medication that has left the blood stream and entered the tissue. So, it’s not 21 picograms in the entire horse–it’s 21 picograms in one milliliter of blood. That’s a different math problem right there.
Secondly, picogram is a measurement of weight and not potency. And so, my best way to explain this is to compare a pound of celery to a pound of Godiva chocolate. They both weigh a pound, so they have the same weight measurement, but in terms of potency–and let’s say that’s caloric content–they are hugely different, right? So, when you talk about a picogram of something, all you’re really talking about is a measurement of weight.
Betamethasone is a potent corticosteroid administered at fairly low doses–nine milligrams or less in a single joint. Compare that to phenylbutazone which is a nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory. It’s not a particularly potent drug–it’s administered in gram doses. And so, we don’t worry about picogram doses of phenylbutazone. We regulate phenylbutazone at the microgram level, which is one-millionth of a gram, and that’s again because the drug disperses throughout the entire body.
So, you have to consider the potency of the drug, and because betamethasone is administered in low milligram doses, picogram concentrations are highly relevant.
Now, do I know what effect 21 picograms has on a horse? No, I do not. But I do know that, based on the administration studies that were funded by the RMTC, 21 picograms is consistent with the intra-articular administration of nine milligrams into a single fetlock joint at less than 72 hours prior to sampling.”
I strongly urge everyone to read the entire article as it is very UNBIASED.
I like Concert Tour with a longshot of Keepmeinmind. Concert Tour ran a 94 in the Rebel under wraps in his first try around 2 turns. He went a half in 47 whereas the older stakes horses in the ESSEX ran their half in 48.2 and the oaks in 48.3. So he set a genuine pace. He got cooked in the Ark. Derby as well as having too hard of a workout before the the race. The workout was officially timed in 1:12and 4 and he worked another 2 furlongs in 24 and change. If you like Midnight Bourbon then you have to like Keepmeinmind as he had a worse trip and got beaten a neck by MB. They way how I handicap I predict MS will bounce but I’m in his corner. Good luck to all !
It’s not my take. I was just quoting the USTA veterinary panel that did an extensive study of Betamethasone. I never even heard of it. I didnt go into the physics of the drug. It seems like everyone has a different opinion of what the drug is and what it does
Unbiased?……..why say the horse had more in body?….. 3785411.8. ml…..in a gallon…….times that by 13……a pico is a trillionth….
It still is 21 picos a ml…….
You are missing the point…….it has nothing to do with if it works……it is that the amount left is so tiny, it mattered not…..punishments need to fit crimes
YOU are missing the point: the zero tolerance allowed on race day is to prevent trainers from training a horse that probably needs time off. They don’t want betamethasone used to train a horse with an issue up to a race. It leaves the body quickly. The 14 day prohibitive period is extremely conservative, as the studies show that a seven day prohibitive period would probably suffice. Since you have the facts now, you can understand how egregious this overage is, and how they MUST enforce this rule! DQ the horse.
KHRC should be held accountable. Let’s get them in front of reporters and grill them for weeks on end about how they could consider to DQ a horse who had dermatitis with a zero tolerance treatment. If the dermatitis became uncontrollable and uncomfortable to the horse, PETA would scream and yell…I want all of those talking puppet bureaucrats accountable to severe questioning…in fact next time each trainer has an issue with a horse. Let’s get them in the barn for their expert advice on how to not get a trace of drug xyz…
except there is excellent evidence that this particular drug should not be used for a month for a skin issue that is likely fungal in nature. So your argument is moot.
Your point is ridiculous……..every horse or athlete has inflammation…….why allow ice?…….its like you dont even know athletics…….football players, if you saw their bodies……you would be in shock…….swollen joints, broken fingers, bruises…..your world doesnt exist……all athletes need therapeutics…….
youtube gary contessa drugs……he explains why all athletes need therapeutics……and he is not a big drug guy….
Stop comparing human athletes to thoroughbreds. Horses are at the mercy of humans and need to be protected from abuse. And in case you weren’t aware, human athletes must follow rules about drugs and medications.
I get ya–ZERO tolerance! But don’t tell me the betamethasone is not supposed to be used as a quick fix for a horse rash–because that’s what it’s for!
Yes, that’s the main point.
Pro Vet, On this topic most of us have to rely on what the experts in the field say. The article was careful to say why the picogram measurement was relevant with this drug as it is very potent. The contrast that she gave was bute which has a totally different measurement. The Jockey club lowered the threshold to zero for a reason not because they are guessing. The rule was written BEFORE the race. I thought the exact same thing that the amount was so small it couldn’t possibly have an effect, but the way it was explained in the article it should give anyone pause if you are willing to see the entire picture. The bottom line is that this was an inexcusable mistake b the vet as well as Baffert.
I AM an expert……..the drug is GREAT…….
You miss the entire point…….you can try to lie…..and say 21 picos is a big amount…..go ahead……keep posting this garbage…..keep calling a trillionth of a gram a big amount……you can say anything you want…….
Say “a rule is a rule” too THATS a great one!
The point is this tiny amount didnt help…….it isnt given to CHEAT………the punishment should fit the crime……
People think TOO much is better?….or having it still in horse close to race day is better?……Once we get the inflammation down …..youre good…….we can keep it down…..do you think a double dose is better?….it isnt…..there is no advantage…….no cheating……the horse isnt doing anything hard that will swell it up……races do that…….
Everyone with a brain knows there was no advantage………why does this not matter?…..its the one thing that should matter……
Hi Vet, since you are the “expert” is there a level that you would consider suspicious? I already know that the drug is not classified as a PED but would you not disqualify this horse with the rule written the way it is?
Glad you made the effort to post it. Dispels a lot of faulty assumptions.
It is embarrassing, that this sport is run by people that don’t know horses.
I took 15 minutes to FIX the drug issues facing the sport. 15 minutes…..details can be worked out later. But the main problems? It wasn’t that hard.
First, the most important drug that needs to be changed, is to BAN Belinda Stronach from having any more LIP injections……no brainer!.
Every sport has failed drug tests. For PERFORMANCE ENHANCING DRUGS. How can our sport not have the common sense, to know FAILED DRUG TEST means performance enhancing?……Everyone in america now thinks Bob Baffert gave his horse performance enhancing drugs…..this is insane…..its the sports leaders fault…
We need to re define all drugs…..it leads to confusion. We need to classify drugs better. We need to have the levels not so sensitive. To deal with false positives, contamination. We need to use Failed Drug test for performance enhancing drugs, and call therapeutic overs something else…..tHERAPEUTIC INFRACTION, OR WHATEVE YOU WANT. …..this solves the public perception. This is obviously what hurts the sport the most.
They actually made whip rule because of public perception. The day it came out, i said “you just made a rule where is pays to break the rule”……the geniuses were so ignorant they didnt understand this…….So yes, the jocks with a chance to win the richest race in the world ignored the rule, paid the small fine…..this shows the incompetence….
We now have med rules that make sense……PERFORMANCE ENHANCING?…..dq’D………drugs that are not enhancing?…….no DQ You need rules that fit the crime……to DQ a horse for dumb picos doesnt make sense, therapeutics? Why punish the OWNERS? nO IT IS THE TRAINERS THAT NEED TO BE PUNISHED
FIX?…….all other drugs? Fines to the trainer. Why do we have 1000 fines across the board?…..it makes zero sense to punish a small trainer at MNR, The same as SA…….how do we solve this?
Fines………big ones……..this is easily done fairly…….whatever the trainer’s share is, for the race he failed test…….you fine the trainer. Again, if you think this is too high, go 5% instead of 10%…….so, a trainer running at MNR for 10k winners payout, gets fined 1k…….trainers are not rich….if you are running in a 5 million race?…..500k fine…. this is the strong deterrent we need.
You better believe, this will be a deterrent….Again……you can go 5%……..
This is the punishment solution. Harsh? Yes……If the trainer is going for a million dollar payday, then he better be careful……..
Again. This puts punishment on the trainer……..stop punishing the horse and the owner for NON PERFORMANCE DRUGS…
USE THESE FINES…….for problems like AFTER CARE…….etc………makes sense huh?………..
These 15 minutes, taking off the top of my head just solved many problems. The people that deserve the punishment get punished pretty harshly……deterrent works…….also the horse and owner does not get unfairly treated…..
Any PERFORMANCE ENHANCING DRUG is dq for all……..just like every other sport……..
Did that particular admittedly small amount of steroid cause MS to win? Doubtful. However, the rules are the rules and other trainers manage to stay under the limits. These aren’t new rules, and they are there for good reasons. Bexamethasone is a corticosteroid. One of the biggest side effects of corticosteroids is they leech minerals from the bones. Considering the frailty of thoroughbred legs, is that really something we should be arguing for increased use? Furthermore, steroids actively cause worsening effects in fungal infections. There is some limited literature that argues Bexamethasone can help speed healing but that literature all agrees to limited usage, not an extended course. No matter how you slice it, that med should not have been in his bloodstream at that time.
I like Midnight Bourbon, he was training well before the derby and he looks good now. MS brought me some money in the derby, but unlike the derby, I don’t think I’ll get the same odds this week.
I think it’s hard to identify what drugs enhance performance. Removing pain or irritation can enhance performance, because it improves the”mood” of the recipient to not feel those anymore. But who really knows all the side effects the chemicals in drugs have, what they do to a horse mentally or physically? People are very sensitive to even small amounts of drugs. I think they ban drugs in European racing because their effects can’t be accounted for. I don’t think the horse in this case got enough to effect him racingwise, but the trainer should have long had someone flag for tested ingredients in things being applied to the horses in his care. Just do it automatically. This is a small technical matter that a well financed operation should be able to handle easily. The person doing it only needs to know how to read and write (and have a magnifying glass handy). Doesn’t society require diligence in many areas of life? Come on. Baffert owes an apology to horse racing, for being sloppy where some precision and care was called for. Everyone knows the tests are more stringent than ever. I don’t think Medina should be DQ’d but Baffert should be fined. It’s too late to change the amounts for this test, but they could try and do that in the near future. Baffert seems to want to do the right thing, he seems sorry but he needs to take care of this.
I don’t disagree with anything you wrote.
Let me say, I appreciate that Cox and Juddmonte have been absent from all the noise surrounding this circus.
That is the wrong question. Does the amount of steroid that was tested prove that MORE substance was used before the test? Yes , it does. Therefore, Medina Spirit was afforded reduced inflammation in some area ( online photos indicate his left knew, but this is not substantiated ) and was therefore AIDED in order to train for the race and had enough of the substance post race to indicate that his inflammation could have been affected DURING the race. There are GOOD REASONS for these overage rules and toe focus on the “small amount” of the positive shows a lack of understanding of the topic.
Umm, are you directing this comment at me? Because no where in my comment did I argue that it should be allowed. In fact I gave an excellent reason why it should not be allowed and also a reason why it should not have been used for the stated amount of time in the stated application. I am aware that different drugs have different potencies and thus the clinical significance. No vet should suggest treatment with a topical steroid for a month from the SAD to the KD to treat a fungal infection. Steroids cause worsening in fungus, and while a very short course can be utilized if there is accompanying swelling, they should never be used for longer courses in fungal infections. “However, they should never be considered as a sole therapy to treat such disease. The presence of the glucocorticoid will delay healing and may affect resolution of bacterial infection by altering the local skin immune system. ” Can Vet J. 2019 Jul; 60(7): 785–788.
Thank you Steve for the clearest explanation I have read yet. How do you combat the ignorant mob mentality of the naysayers. It sort of reminds me of the French Revolution. If your accused your guilty, off with his head. the levels for testing are ridiculously low, I’m surprised they didn’t find cocaine in the sample since almost all our paper money is contaminated. 21 picograms didn’t move him up even a nose.
Thanks Derek, there are so many different avenues here. You have Baffert, you have the testing levels, you have racing’s decline, you have Medina Spirit being stripped of of the victory, the animal activists. and you have the Baffert haters wanting the guillotine. Its just a mess. Oh yes, you have the Preakness
To me the decline started with the owners and trainers not willing to race to train thus less starts and the proliferation of A D D in human species.
“Baffert haters”? Your pro Baffert stance is showing. Journalism is supposed to be about objectivity.
Testing levels are there for a reason. To protect the horses, the riders and the betting public
Your stance is showing or is that your slip showing!
Steve, THANK You as always for sharing your thoughts and expertise. Although i some what disagree with you on the drug not affecting Medina Spirits ability to run. I have bad joints and take anti inflamatoty shots and meds. This much i know, how ever fast i am before the meds, i am much faster after taking the meds. So i am just an old punter but my conclusion is Baffert cheats and its a bad mark on horse racing as a whole. But i am sure Baffert will get away with it.
Take Care and thanks again
you take the meds to win races? Or you take the meds so that you can get relief?
Help us……but not horses?…….is that not cruel?……….every athlete NEEDS therapeutics…..
If its available to all of the horses then i am absolutely fine with that.
Jim, try taking one one-trillionth of your prescribed dose and see how fast you can run. That is the minuscule amount found in Medina Spirit and it certainly did not enhance his performance. The biggest point to be made is that under the current guidelines the punishments don’t fit the crime. To label BB a cheater for this event is silly. Even in Sharia Law they have the intelligence to have some crimes with set punishments and others to be handled by the discretion of a judge who can mitigate the circumstances and apply the correct punishment. We can and should at least achieve this level of justice in this industry. Pain relievers allow you, or in this case a horse, to perform at your potential, not to enhance an ability or level you never had. Trainers at the top level don’t run their horses when they have fevers, why would they run them when they are sore? The answer is, at this level they don’t because it’s a failed endeavor. The strict laws pertaining to over use of pain killers does need to be enforced, but more so for horses running at lower levels to discourage trainers and owners from running a sore horse for a paycheck. It’s despicable and does need to be monitored. But to enforce punishments intended for one crime on an entirely different situation is just plain unjustified. It has painted a terrible picture of the industry to the general public and has done the sport no favors. I was only kidding about you taking less than your prescribed amount of pain killers. I take them too and just had surgery so that I can get off those things or at least reduce my level of dependence. Good health to you my good man.
Thank you!
Well said, El Kabong. Help is on the way!
Rock the Casbah!
Ok El Kabomg thank you for sharing and i stand corrected.
Any time Jim. Enjoy the race. One thing for sure, all these opinions are setting up a big plate of crow for someone. If Medina runs them off their feat then what? If he flounders the mob will be circling the BB barn with torches and pitch forks. Only in America.
Make that 31 lashes for all those who don’t enter the contest, Steve!
I’m not seeing any interest on here. No more lashes. If people are not interested in entering you cant force them. Several people are going to win great prizes.
It’s still early yet! If most are like me, they will be waiting until much closer to the deadline to enter. Keep the faith!
The lashes comment was a bit much. I for one am not excited about winning a horse halter, no matter who it belonged to, I’d rather get a framed photo.
Well, here’s your chance! Good luck if you choose to enter.
Well said Steve! Concert Tour will win BTW.
Thanks for this article Steve. I could not agree more with your comments about this latest issue which the industry has clumsily brought upon themselves and now seems to have no answer for the corner they have pinned themselves in to with poorly structured rules. Ugh! Good Grief! When will the leadership of our sport stop moving the football when the Charlie Browns of this game try to kick the ball? We are on our backs again and the Lucy Leadership is to blame, not Charlie.
I’m hoping Medina runs them off their feet and rubs some noses in the dirt along the way. I like Keepmeinmind to pick up the pieces if Medina shakes his company. Good luck and lets enjoy the race.
When’s your namesake running again?
I should know but I don’t. I should put him in a notification stable so I can be alerted. If he wins without me I will feel cheated.
Today, last race, 9th at CD.
I have been traveling and didn’t get a chance to read your column until this morning, Steve. Your post and the thoughtful comments posted here are cathartic. It’s great to have this place to come to to help me hash this thing out, emotionally and otherwise.
You are absolutely right when you say that if someone was going to cheat, they wouldn’t do it this way. That said, Bob (whom I love) has gotten a bit sloppy and will likely lose the Derby if the split sample comes back with even a single picogram of the banned substance.
But I’m still picking Medina Spirit to win the Preakness. I see Concert Tour and Midnight Bourbon going to the lead, with Medina laying 3rd or 4th. Concert Tour is going to tire, and Medina and Midnight will duke it out. Then someone — Rombauer? Keepmeinmind? — will close for second with Midnight Bourbon third. So there’s my 6-way superfecta!
Here’s the thing about this latest embarrassment: It’s not about whether anyone cheated. The rules established by the Ky racing authority have been broken (assuming another positive result). The absurdity of the rule and the action will hopefully be history once the new national standards are created and in operation next year.
According to the Thoro-Graph figures this is an extremely slow field of horses for classic race. Medina ran a 1 1/2 in the Derby and Midnight Bourbon ran a 3. No other horse ran faster than a 4 last out and that was Keepmeinmind with a 4 in the Derby. So the three Derby horses are the three fastest horses in the field and two of them finished 6th and 7th, beaten more than 8 lengths. Even big longshot Ram is right there with these horses coming off a 5 in his last race.
Thank you… Great info again. I figured this crop seemed slower a couple months back. If LIG stayed healthy, I honestly think he would’ve won the triple crown. Easier to speculate that with this information.
Could/would/should.
A Brief But Tragic History of the Kentucky Derby 2018-2021
2018
Future Triple Crown winner Justify tests positive for scopolamine following his victory in the Santa Anita Derby. If he had been disqualified, he would not have qualified for entry in the Kentucky Derby. Four months later, the California Racing Board disposed of the inquiry during a closed-door session.
2019
Maximum Security finishes first in the Kentucky Derby but is disqualified for interference and placed 17th. It was the first disqualification of an apparent winner for racing interference in the history of the Kentucky Derby. Country House, who finished 1 ¾ lengths behind Maximum Security and was not a victim of interference, is declared the winner. Maximum Security’s trainer is later indicted on federal race-doping charges unrelated to the first-place finisher of the Kentucky Derby.
2020
Churchill Downs moves the Kentucky Derby to the first Saturday in September due to COVID concerns. The Arkansas Derby is held on May 2 with no fans in attendance. The Kentucky Derby is held on September 5…with no fans in attendance.
2021
Medina Spirit wins the Kentucky Derby in the closest 4-horse finish in the race’s history. The next day, trainer Bob Baffert reveals that Medina Spirit tested positive for the corticosteroid betamethasone. Another positive test for a split sample will result in the disqualification of Medina Spirit, the second DQ in the history of the Derby and the first since 1968.
Would anyone like to bet on whether TV ratings decline for the 2022 Derby?
Well done, Eddie. Would anyone like to bet on whether the 2021 Preakness is going to have huge TV ratings?
I’d take the bet against huge ratings (if I hadn’t been wiped out in the Derby, ha). Some horseplayers, myself included, do not find this year’s Preakness to be very attractive and will pass to wait on the Belmont. Will the widespread coverage by the main stream media of Medina Spirit’s drug test peak the interest of the casual viewer? I think not. In racing, bad publicity is not better then no publicity because imo, it’s old news and the general public is just plain tired of it. Sad but true.
Like I said, horse racing industry is its own worst enemy. Making DQ’s off of technicalities so the media can trash the entire industry. Bad decisions have been made by Kentucky and Churchill Downs. If a drug isn’t performance enhancing, no way should that drug/cream be at ZERO tolerance. INSANE!
I agree. If I owned a business and some of these idiots worked for me, I’d be out of business, period.
Thats not why people will watch. They want see NBC’s coverage of the Baffert affair and all the dirt, and they want to see how Medina Spirit runs. The ratings should be huge with all the national coverage this has gotten
CNBC had the news next to the (very concerning) ticker tape.
I agree. I don’t like it but I agree. It, was fairly quiet today as some folks, were focused on the gas crisis, and similar hacks into other systems. Some people, will be likely be focused on the Preakness.
Big ratings if Essential Quality, Hot Rod Charlie and Mandaloun were running.
The race is not why the ratings will be big.
Higher than usual ratings, Bobby Frankel once said bad pub is good pub, as far as the ratings go…
Hi Steve. Avid reader of yours. Glad to see your continued stories and posts. Great stuff! Can you tell me Keepmeinminds thoro-graph pattern please?
Thanks John. From past to present — 14 1/4…8 1/2…5 1/4….6…6…8….4 (career best figure in the Derby)
Hi Steve,
I have enjoyed ready your articles for years and thank you for your impartial viewpoint and fair analysis of this whole messy situation. People are way too quick to pass judgment these days without logically assessing the facts. I feel very sorry for Medina Spirit and all of his connections. He’s a worthy Derby winner and doesn’t deserve all of the condemnation.
Also thank you for the time and effort that you put into these rankings and your other articles. I very much look forward to reading them each week!
I really appreciate it. Thank you very much.
I have had time to handicap the Preakness more closely and the more I look at Rombauer the more I think he at least can pick up a piece of it. I would hate to leave him out of the exotics, as I can see him rallying late. He’s run big on all three surfaces and his Blue Grass was actually a pretty strong effort considering the early speed he showed, which was totally uncharacteristic for him. And Mike McCarthy is a darn good trainer.
My horse to use with Medina Spirit.Horses coming from SA are running big when coming East maybe because they made the track deeper to prevent breakdowns.Also using Baffert’s horse Friday.NYRA has chance to have a triple crown winner at the Belmont.
Thanks a million for your column. My heart breaks when I see Medina Spirit now and ponder his fate because of this incident. He is a TRUE Champion ! I’ve owned OTTB’s all my life and have worked hard to do my part to save and rescue these horses from a horrendous cruel fate totally undeserved. This situation reminds me of the dark unconscionable way
these precious horses are treated as disposable hefty bag garbage. I think it also amplifies that the. stinky garbage in this situation iactually is human not equine. Greedy pathetic immoral unethical and more …the reason people are turning away from horseracing Simply divine justice I think.
It is very sad that he will be disqualified fom a race in which he was the best horse and ran his heart out. And I feel bad for the small-time horse people behind he scenes who helped write this rags to riches story and then see it stripped away. Kudos to you for your efforts in saving horses.
Brilliant title, Steve. The rest of your column follows suit. It should be mandatory reading for every commentator preparing to air their views this Saturday. Wow. Just wow.
Thank you very much, Cynthia. right now we have more questions than answers. There is plenty of blame to go around.
Thank you, Steve, for the nice summation of what has happened since the Derby.
My first thought when the news broke about Medina Spirit tasing positive for a ‘banned’ substance was ‘1968, here we go again’. I ironically, I just finished reading the book about Dancer’s Image and Pete Fuller’s fight to clear his horse’s name.
I am hoping Medina Spirit runs on Saturday to show that he IS a good horse and worthy of a Triple Crown run.
The only difference between this and 1968 is that a certain well known veterinarian is no longer around. That was more of a farce than this was. People dont know the real story what went on at the Derby back in those days. I know for sure of one superstar and big Derby favorite who was “gotten to” and by who and finished up the track.
Like everyone, I have thoughts on this and some have been stated on another site. I have been attacked by pro-Baffert people and anti-Baffert people for my opinions. So, I am not a Baffert hater or apologist. Somewhere in the middle, still trying to figure out why would he do something like this deliberately. It isn’t logical. Then he has had 5 positives in a year. Someone suggested he was treating inflammation while training him and he misjudged the clearance time. The other possibility is that it is the corticosteroid topical cream.
I think Bob Baffert is a truly gifted trainer and he is the face of the sport. He is loyal and supportive to staff. He shares the glory with Jimmie Barnes and acknowledges his contributions. A nice thing to do. I believe he genuinely loves horses. It isn’t just a day job for him. He gets more out of a 3 year old horse than any other trainer.
Having said all that, he should know what his horse is being treated with. If this is due to a corticosteroid cream, it is especially sad because it was avoidable and not an attempt to treat a horse with soft tissue or joint issues. But, he knows what the rules are. We can debate the rules ad infinitum, but they are what they are. That is why we need a national governing authority. If the consensus is that there should be an allowable level, then a national governing body can determine that after listening to all the evidence for both sides of the argument.
He was going to have Dr. Hore develop a plan for his barn to prevent exactly this kind of event. It didn’t happen. Craig Robertson, Bob Baffert’s lawyer, is now working with Dr. Hore to set up a program.
Dr. Roberts states that betamethasone does not mask pain. What it does is decrease inflammation, which decreases pain. That is one of the reasons it is prescribed for both humans and horses and it is indisputable. It is also used for skin conditions. I have no idea if that is where the betamethasone came from or not and Bob Baffert made the same comment. It is not an anabolic steroid, which specifically increases performance. But it decreases inflammation/pain allowing the horse to race through soft tissue and joint problems.
They did the right thing by allowing Medina Spirit to run. They have not vacated the Derby win yet and the split sample is not back. I think that Medina Spirit, Concert Tour and Midnight Bourbon will be 1,2,3 in what order, I don’t know. Concert Tour has speed and so does Medina Spirit. I think a lot depends on how much the Derby did or did not take out of Medina Spirit. He had to hold off the other 3 and we will see if that made him even more competitive or tired him out for the Preakness two weeks later. He is a gutsy horse and that will help. I have always been a fan of Cocnert Tour and look forward to his return. People are very high on Midnight Bourbon now too. Most importantly, above all else, may they all come home safely, jockey and horse.
good post…..the dr Hore thing did not happen because of covid
Thank you Pro Vet. Yes, I think that is true about the Covid delaying everything with Dr. Hore.
Very well stated Paula. There are so many questions regarding this case and no one has asked them to the parties involved. All of this should have been avoided.
Thanks Steve. I hate it that this has happened. It was quite a Derby. Hoping he runs a great
race on Saturday, for the horse’s sake. My opinion evolved. It went from it defies logic that he
would deliberately do this in thie Derby, to I am so mad he did it, to he sounds like he really didn’t
know what happened, to I think all is true. I am really hoping that Dr. Hore can fix what is broke
and we can move on. If Bob Baffert can be a leader in fixing these issues, it would go a long
way to restoring his reputation. I have no idea what Churchill will do if the split remains positive, but they
are a tough bunch as we saw with Maximum Security.
FWIW, my take on Midnight Bourbon: He was taken out of his game at the start of the Derby, so I would put a line through the race. With good starts, he’s always competitive. The FG races are looking much better after the Ky Derby results. However….there are three speed horses in the Preakness that have never won a stakes route from off the pace. It’s just a guess which one gets the lead, but the pace should be quick and getting the lead in this race may not be the best strategy. As neither of the other two have won without getting the lead, I’ll look for a closer.
Also, Midnight Bourbon seems like a hanger. Take a look at his running lines from the stretch calls to the finishes of his six stakes races. He doesn’t pack it in, but he loses some ground in each loss. In his only win, his lead diminished by a length in the stretch.
I’m leaning toward Risk Taking (15-1) and Rombauer (12-1) to win.
Ive always said Midnight Bourbon needs to be in front. He hasnt been able to pass horses.. I even told his owner that he has to get the lead turning for home because he’s game when hes in front. But you also have to remember that the two horses he failed to pass at FG went on to finish 2nd and 3rd in the Ky. Derby. Thy were no slouches. He still might be able to pass these horses
I like him in the exacta. Only three horses from the Derby is a BIG disappointment.
Go time for Irad.
Thanks for the article and also for co-hosting the contest Steve. Those prizes are amazing and I’m off to enter shortly (to no avail I am sure–but can’t resist.) To anyone, more left brain than me (and I am sure everyone is) how many total possible choices would there be?
There are no experts in this contest. You have as much of a shot as anyone. And the other prizes are pretty good. ou just have to come close. Good luck
Have not handicapped yet……on paper bobs horses win……i have BOTH regressing a little………so im looking for another
Hard to believe that Concert Tour can regress off that last race. I would think he has to improve off that. If he does regress its time to put him way for a while
Agreed!
I mean’t off his best……i dont like a bad race……yes, the baffert horses on paper look the best…….i’m either gonna find a horse or stay out………
Concert ran the most impressive prep………have no idea why he stopped last…….if he bounces back he wins……but im taking negative…..he grabs bit way too hard…..doesnt relax well….
you can see the amount of saliva he works up grabbing the bit. His last race was a head scratcher. And it was a very slow race on all he speed figures. We saw what the winner did or didnt do in the Derby.
Whatever happened out there, btw, to innocent until proven guilty as far as Baffert is concerned? People just rush to judgement way too quickly! I think Medina Spirit will give a good account of himself. Good thing he can’t read though. BTW Mr. Haskin how would you play the contest?
I would put 10 numbers in a hat and pick. LOL. I wouldnt try to pick all 10 in order. just go with the horses you feel will run well and hope you come close.
People think im a BOB guy….im not….i would say the same it if was Brad Cox……..i feel LIFE IS NOT FAIR…..the rule is needed that the trainer is responsible…….it is not fair, but needed…..i think he will be dq’d……….
People miss my point………Its the lack of common sense, and stupidity, ignorance of thinking he is CHEATING……and the black and white rules, levels etc….
I couldnt agree more.
…nor I.
Again Steve well thought out. Still like Medina Spirit to win and think he drew well. Like Midnight Bourbon as well and like you no clue about the Japanese horse.
As for the rest of it? They have to staighten out what is and not allowed in a screen. If nothing else comes out of this it will be the lab results from Medina Spirit tracking from race to race. It has to be nationwide, not just state to state. If it is for the health of the horse and not pain masking or performance enhancing what is the problem? We are past the days when somebody trying to throw a race would deliberately make sure they got so thirsty they would drink too much!
One other thing you sadly reminded me of was the match race they set up with up with Ruffian decades ago when the Cali winner went scooting back. Not really the same thing but in some ways the power of the jockey club to influence does not always change for the better. We can only hope something good will come from this.
Thats all we can hope for. We need a commissioner or a governing body
Don’t you think that the HISA will be a significant improvement over what the industry has now?
Most definitely
Been off the site trying to conserve my data limits and have been reading through all the posts just now. They are going to kill this sport if they don’t get this fixed and soon concerning post screen testing and what is and what is not ok. Everybody is outraged this is happening for the Triple Crown but what about all the other races that go on everyday? Somebody has to take the first step. Owners, breeding operations, and trainers need to band together and ask for it. I do recall Bob saying with Gamine they followed the guidelines and gave it another 4 days and still came up with a positive after the race. No 2 indidual horses react to meds the same way just like no 2 humans do. These are not Nascar machines.
Steve,
Doctor No here….I completely agree with your assessment of Midnight Bourbon. Appeared to get pinballed at the start and instead of Smith rushing him up he laid back in the hopes of a hot pace. The one drawback on this horse is he tends to hang when behind another horse when pressing the pace. If MB is to win it is imperative he gets the lead because we have seen when he does its difficult to pass him.
With respect to Concert Tour that was a bad beat at Oaklawn although he was dueling w Caddo River but now has to go longer. The horse that beat him did get a perfect rail trip but was a no show in the Derby.
One more…With respect to Risk Taking. Yes the Wood probably is a throw out however horses that run at Aqueduct do not do very well at other tracks..Comments?
I’ve always said Midnight Bourbon needs to be in front. He hasnt been able to pass horses.
I predict a merry go round (boring). Medina, Concert and Bourbon. Would love to see the Japanese horse do well.
Did you see his rider fall off him after the wire in his work? That was pretty scary. Fortunately both are fine.
I did! Crazy neither were hurt.
Thank you as always Steve, always look forward to your articles! I am really high on Crowded Trade. Ran a very solid debut closing into a heavy gusting wind. Then, ran a monster 2nd in the Gotham, which I thought was an underrated race (I think Weyburn will be tough in the Belmont) where he got a 7 3/4 on the rag. Predictably bounced in that disgusting Wood, and coming off 3 races on the heavy Aqueduct track. He should be ready to run back to that 7 3/4 and could be sitting on a jump up from that which should get him the win. I like Midnight Bourbon to come in 2nd and Keepmeinmind to close into a nice 3rd. I’m with you on him, really like that horse. Don’t think Concert Tour wants the distance and he has a weird stride with some paddling. I like boxing CT, Midnight Bourbon, Keepmeinmind, and Medina Spirit.
First off, Brendan, thank you so much for actually talking about the Preakness. Great analysis. Crowded Trade could run big here and it wouldnt surprise me. Chad said his only question with him s whether he wants to go this far. He is concerned that he couldnt finish off his run going 1 1/8 miles. But I still respect him a lot. He’s accomplished quite a bit for a horse with only three starts and is always right there. He ran a 2 1/2 T-Graph in the Gotham which was excellent then regressed to a 5 in the Wood so he will have improve a lot off that.
Thank you, Steve. I agree, that is my big fear as well breeding is not for this distance. But at the price against this field I think that makes him the selection despite the distance worry. Keepmeinmind looked liked he got bumped solidly at the start of the Derby. And if he somehow found a rail trip instead of swinging 8 wide he could’ve been a lot closer. You were spot on calling out the 6 weeks he couldn’t get to the track to train. Completely messed him up. That 8 1/2 rag he ran in the Juvenile was very impressive (think thoro-graphs were light that race). Now that he settled back in a race again and got back to a 10 rag, he has ample room to improve as he is just getting going. I think the pace could end up being a little spicier than people think as MB should press off a good break. If the pace collapses he is the winner. But even with just a modest pace he should be a major player underneath.
And he improved from an 8 T-Graph to a 4 so he’s at least getting into the competitive numbers. He just cant be back that far. But I like the way he was finishing and I think he may be rounding back to his 2 year old form. All depends on the pace. I am curious to see what Baffert tells his riders. It looks as if both horses are better on the lead. Bob has always thought more highly of Concert Tour than Medina. He was his big Derby horse after Life is Good got hurt and even before he rated them pretty equal. Thats why the Arkansas Derby was such a head scratcher for him. Both horses have to break well from their post positions and go for it. I think Concert Tour is the faster horse but Medina will have the rail.
I am curious as well, he may be faster but I think Johnny V won’t yield easily if he breaks well regardless of what Baffert tells them. Would be funny if they ended up in a speed duel. I just don’t like Concert Tour’s pattern on the Ragozins with the declining figs as he stretches out. I know the breeding is there to get the distance, and his first 2 races were very impressive. But he has a little paddling motion and runs a bit crooked with his stride it looks like, which I think might be the reason he hasn’t been as impressive around two turns as he was one. Reminds me of Vekoma, should be a good miler. With his odds he doesn’t offer much value in my opinion but I will probably use him defensively. I don’t think Keepmeinmind will be nearly as far back, hopefully within 10 lengths or so unless the pace is super fast. I just really think he is sitting on a big race here. He ran his final 1/2 in 49 flat in the Derby which I thought was solid to finish off a 10 panel race. I think he is very likely to get at least 4th or 3rd if the rail opens up. I don’t buy its impossible for a closer to win here, with the right setup and against this field it is very possible.
Crowded trade is probably the ugliest running good horse ive seen…..his head carriage is so bad, the horse amazes me……go watch his first race….how can he win that?…..i have no idea what to do with him……if his head would get better, watch out……i dont know how he runs that well…….horses that run with their head like this usually cant run……interesting horse
That is funny I didn’t notice that before. He is green that is for sure, but if he matures maybe it will be a little better. He looked a little better in the Wood despite the predictable bounce. At least his leg action looks good. I am worried about the distance as well and this doesn’t help. But I think he is at least a very talented young miler. I think he is dangerous at a price. Chad’s not coming down here just to run him.
A doctor on another blog, says it is gone from your system in 24 hrs……7 days is the accepted time……14 days out is the rule……..so Gamine failed …..HOW?…..she was given it with days to spare…….this is cheating?…..Sadler went thru this with Masochistic…..steroids given at the correct time……it somehow was still in his system….unheard of that it was still there……so tiny of an amount, it really was ridiculous to DQ’d…….And we all knew it had no effect……
These levels they test are ridiculous……someone can touch a horse, and meth can show up…..do you realize how little that can be?…
How can a doctor swear that its 24 hours……yet Gamine failed 18 days?…..the window is 14 to be safe……..yet, these trainers get called cheats?…….for something that doesnt improve performance?……no trainer uses scope…..yet Justify cheated?….the drug is outdated, the presence of atopine proved it was from the weed…..yet people still think he cheated?
Lido is not used for racing…..it wouldnt help anything……THAT WAS CHEATING?…….now this?……………you dont look at intent?……a reason?……overs dont help……..too much doesnt make a difference…….yet no one has any common sense……….people just see FAILED TEST
Its ridiculous how people throw the word cheat around. I dont know who cheats and who doesnt, but in this case cheat is a strong word. If youre going to cheat this isnt how you do it. That’s like robbing a bank and demanding one dollar. If youre going to cheat then do it right.
Yet the national media used “doping”…..or FAILED TEST ….peoples minds go to track and field when its blood doping….or Anabolic steroids…….
There are so many things on our banned list…..
posters say he has been “doping”…….that is blood doping….
Ugh. Or when they use the word juiced
Ron Ellis?
yes of course…….i always get those 2 mixed up……….ron ellis…….they portrayed him being a cheater…..it was,nt right……
And the lady that he trained for all those years dumped him…..has not had it easy ever since losing his top client…was an 800 lb animal, ran fast but it took a lot out of him, and even though the track vet said he would likely clear of the steroid, which was applied to help his recovery, the horse still had residue amount…yeah, they ruined him, too.
I won’t be betting this weekend, but I’ll keep an eye on Ram. Maiden Claim winner for D. Wayne – could it happen again?
His last race was actually pretty good. But this is a huge step up
I got him finishing last in Steve’s handicapping contest…LOL
Everyone all over is picking Midnight Bourboun……its funny…..his odd will be lower than you think
That’s what I’m afraid of. May not be worth a win bet.
Per Steve Haskin: Dr. Andy Roberts …said “Betamethasone does not mask pain and does not improve performance when administered by a veterinarian at HRMC levels. It acts to prevent cellular destruction.” –Well, firstly Betamethasone a corticosteroid, is a potent anti-inflammatory, and inflammation, in and of itself, can, and often does produce pain especially in the joint of a performing racehorse. Inflammation can also, at times, cause cellular destruction, but to cite this property as its sole result, and as a refutation of its analgesic effect seems deliberately misleading. Fact is, Betamethasone can “mask” pain especially when administered into the joint of a racehorse. When administered properly- proper doses, and not chronically, it can help prevent articular tissue damage CAUSED BY INFLAMMATION. Given too often, etc, it can result in tissue damage/joint necrosis, etc.
Also, why not quote Mary Scollay d.v.m. ?
Great……the 2021 battle of the EXPERTS………we havent learned by now?…..your side calls expert, my side call expert……..
Good points, sceptre. One-sided arguments have never convinced me. You have to understand the pharmacological use and misuse of certain drugs to fully understand their ‘impact.’
MASK is a misleading word too…….what is pain?….inflamed nerves……….it lowers inflammation……period…..this is a good thing……each view is misleading……welcome to 2021……….these “you might hurt a horse” by making him feel better crap is so infuriating…..its stupid………they are going to run anyway………
Is this a pain killer?……really?………mask?
This is what people do today…….they take a word like MASK……..and go by THEIR DEF. of the word……”oh…it MASKS PAIN…..”….THEN YOU HAVE A DEF. of the word PAIN…….its 2021……….
No…inflammation compresses (impinges upon) the nerves causing them to fire—-result is pain. You aren’t informed enough to label it “crap”.
YES INFLAMMATION CAUSES PAIN……….thats what i said…………it is crap, because the whole reason for the rule, is ridiculous……….dont help the horse alot, because we might run them…….that is the whole reason for the rule……its dumb. We are going to run anyway…….oh….its ok to use ice , diet, compression etc…….but not ok to use what really works good?……All athletes need therapeutics……..ALL. but its wrong for horses?………this is dumb…..at its core……..inflammation damages…..so the answer is dont help?
i know way more than you sir………
corticosteroid, is a potent anti-inflammatory, and inflammation, in and of itself, can, and often does produce pain especially in the joint of a performing racehorse.
you know more than i do?………explain this stuff…….does this make sense?……where are the dots?……….
and inflammation?…..it causes pain?…i thought it masks it…….what does this even mean?….did you miss words?….add words?….what?…….its like a little mystery……it masks, but causes, but and inflammation got thrown in there for some reason…..i dunno……can i call a friend…..?
I tried to spell it out for you. Try to read slowly and carefully without pre-exisiting bias- if that’s possible. Don’t re-write, incorrectly, what I had written and then attempt to refute what was written incorrectly. That may pass/work with fools, but not others.
i copied and pasted it…….i still dont understand it…….who could?
Maybe I missed it, but is Caddo River injured? I’m surprised that he wasn’t entered in the Preakness.
I feel the reason HAS to be, he isnt doing great……..he wouldnt have worked if he wasn’t planning on running…….
Well said Steve, my sentiments exactly on this Derby witch hunt. I am slowly getting fed up with these idiots who run the sport. Maybe that is harsh but how ignorant can these so-called industry leaders be.
Like this wasn’t Lyle Alzado or John Matuszak taking steroids to enhance their playing ability.
I have found in life that the more that people get involved in trying to fix or legislate something the muddier the water gets.
By reading some of these responses in your last blog regarding this manner shows how much the “lynch mob mentality” is alive and well.
Thank you Steve for all of these incredibly informative blogs, they are all masterful.
I actually think Medina Spirit or Concert Tour will win the Preakness with Midnight Bourbon 3rd.
Stay safe …….
Hi Deacon. I am thinking along the same lines as you….Medina or Concert Tour to win and Midnight Bourbon 3rd.
Thanks very much Deacon. Big difference between corticosteroids and anabolic steroids.
Big time difference you are most correct. One of my best friends here in Oregon is a big animal vet. He works on race horses all the time. He and I spent time together talking about this. He is in agreement with what you articulated in your summation along with other folks as well. For me personally I am fed up with these racing so-called experts who only want to hammer a well respected trainer.
This is how the way of the world is trending.
Thank you again for a great article, well written.
Seven horses!
Redundant!!!
Sure and redundant for instances he’s been caught. Unlike some,not willing to look other way-pretending those seven horses didn’t die unnecessarily. Bottom line! Far too many enablers.
I have to disagree, I’m sorry, Steve. I have no idea if Medina Spirit was helped or not by the drug, but IMO, a positive test means he must be DQ’d from his victory in the Derby. It’s not unfair to him if he is – that’s on his trainer, I’m afraid.
Once again, I’m here for Unbridled Honor. I’m not picking him to win – I’m not picking anyone to win – but I think he’s been underestimated all along, from his TB Derby to the Lexington. He’s doing very well, and the jockey switch should help immensely. Julien Leparoux was simply too passive – this colt is not a natural deep closer, and I think Saez will be more aggressive. I am extremely confident that he will run a big race.
You are incorrect in your assessment, Steve has explained that these tests aren’t always accurate and who knows how many people handle the samples. Very unfair for someone as knowledgeable as you say this.
Nevertheless good luck
She’s knowledgeable?
If tom Brady was found to have a pain med……..do you take away the super bowl?…………..no……..because that would be stupid…….
Why not go back and learn about these violation you speak of………why does it not matter if they didnt make a horse run faster?…..how can that not MATTER ?…….say it…….you don’t really know huh?……name the violations……
I agree with you on Risk Taking. Unfortunately the more important story is medication and thoroughbred racing. The amount of a drug in a horses system that is over the legal limit and whether it effected it’s performance is not the primary issue. I received a speeding ticket for going 5 mph over the limit. The law is the law. The simple solution is ALL medications should be banned for racing horses. The rest of the world does this and so should we. All this medication has led to infirm horses being bred to infirm horses therefore weakening the breed. You have written innumerous stories about historic horses that ran on only oats and hay. Their campaigns were more arduous than current runners by eons. And they were sounder. Hopefully this fiasco will move us a step closer to drug free racing.
I don’t want to go as far as saying all medications should be banned, but I completely agree about the rest (except for Risk Taking in the sense that I don’t see any reason to throw out his race in the Wood; he’s talented, but that was a bad race). Baffert is a disgrace – this has happened to his horses way, WAY too many times. He’s losing and has lost some horses – and I’m glad of it. People that continue to send their horses to Bob knowing his methods will have to pay the price should he be caught……..that’s how it should be.
Disgrace……….yet when did he ever cheat?……..an over for ingesting a common weed? Lido? a therapeutic?…..be specific…….
If none help a horse run faster, why is he a disgrace?……..if this was from a vet recommended thing?……disgrace?…….
Did you read why Char and gamine got their purses?……The testing facility was a horror show…..they botched everything so bad, they had to pay them….it wouldnt stand up in court……
People put way, way, too much faith in experts……look at covid…..our lives were at stake……what a train wreck on both sides…….
Medina Spirit is going to lose his Derby—-even though 21 pico grams meant NADA to his performance, letter of the law is clear—too bad, cuz it’s common in racing that a horse might not get DQ’d, while the jockey gets days for a dangerous ride—they CAN punish Bob, and leave up Medina—but they won’t, certainly not in this climate….Steve if you like Bob, say a little prayer for the guy, who is losing his decades long reputation as we speak—he’s finding out who his friends are—and aren’t.
I disagree, I think that he will keep his win.
Midnight Bourbon and Medina Spirit.
Thank you for actually talking about the Preakness.
What’s your thoughts on Unbridled Honor? I’m using him in a trifecta. I feel the jockey change from Leparoux to Saez is an upgrade for this race. Saez to me is the more aggressive rider. Using UH w/Ct & CT.
This is a very slow field by Thoro-Graph figures so he could run a big race and it wouldnt surprise me. He is improving
Had Midnight Bourbon early in the year and I do believe he belongs near the top. As far as Keepmeinmind, is he just a 1-turn horse?
His three best races were around two turns and they two grade 1s and a grade 2.
Mulling over your post before entering the contest.
As to the latest drug scandal, I am staying out of it and will only say that “The Press Box” Opinion piece has some good advice that I think would serve anyone well who is in Mr. Baffert’s current situation.
Sometimes a change in jockey can make all the difference in a race and personally think that the change on Midnight Bourbon is a good one.
Really like the format you have used for this post, lays everything all very clearly for someone like me who does not follow these stats. Thank you!
Good luck everyone and safe races for all!
Thanks Lynda. I tried to lay it out clearly focusing on Medina Spirit rather than Bob Baffert.
Steve you made a good point about voters leaving Medina completely off their ballots, as if 21 pico grams propelled the horse to victory…..as for my pick, I’ve been a Rombauer gut since last September’s 2nd in the American Pharoah, and it looks like the decision to skip the Derby was a fortunate one, as there was a lone speed….Saturday may have more speed.
He is the one horse I’m afraid to break up a trifecta. I dont know how good he is, but he may be good enough to make his presence felt. And you have to respect any California horse
Rombauer— has low Beyer #’s, so he will fetch a good number….gets that man Prat, and after winning the 9 panel Tapeta race, they took him to Keeneland, where he had no pace to run at, and even found himself third….started falling back on the far turn, before re-rallying down the lane….the Preakness is his third race of the year….he is all paid up, by way of his Golden Gate victory….flying under the radar, IF…..they go fast up front—-Rombauer might just be the guy—not a strong Preakness field, and a great price!
This was a really insightful analysis. Rombauer with the 3 returning Derby horses made up the super.