Breeders’ Cup Analysis: So Much to Sort Out
Will Fierceness or Thorpedo Anna emerge as the leading Horse of the Year candidate? Will Aidan O’Brien finally win his first Classic after 17 tries with superstar City of Troy? Will the Japanese become a major Breeders’ Cup force with their largest contingent by far? Stay tuned as we try to put all the pieces together. ~ Steve Haskin
Breeders’ Cup Analysis: So Much to Sort Out
By Steve Haskin
Let’s be honest, a good deal of handicapping is guesswork and times that by 10 when handicapping the Breeders’ Cup, especially this year with so much foreign participation and not really knowing what to expect from the Japanese horses who get stronger every year. Look how much closer they have gotten to winning the Kentucky Derby and Breeders’ Cup Classic the past two years.
In analyzing all these races, let’s start with the big one.
CLASSIC
I have already devoted an entire column to three potential live overlays – Newgate, Arthur’s Ride, and Sierra Leone — and just have to figure out how to apply that analysis when it comes to betting them, especially with the first two drawing posts 13 and 12, respectively.
To me, the first chore is separating the 3-year-olds from the older horses. How good are our 3-year-olds and City of Troy and Forever Young and how do they stack up against the older horses, who are not an exceptional bunch, but are dangerous nonetheless, with horses like Grade 1 winners Newgate, Arthur’s Ride, Highland Falls, and Tapit Trice just getting good now at age 4 and should only keep getting better. Then you have the warriors like Ushba Tesoro, Derma Sotogake, and the enigmatic Next, who we know so little about and have no idea what to expect against this caliber of competition and keeping up with a pace three to five seconds faster than what he’s been running. But he surely can be a horse of destiny. I just have no idea how heavily he will be bet. If he wins it is the story of the year,
There is one statistic we have to get out of the way when it comes to the 3-year-olds taking on the older horses. In the past 15 Classics only four have been won by 3-year-olds and all of them were trained by Bob Baffert, whose strength has always been his ability to get his hoses dead-fit for big races. Two of those horses – American Pharoah and Arrogate – ae in the Hall of Fame and another, Authentic, was a Kentucky Derby winner. The last trainer not named Baffert to win the Classic with a 3-year-old was none other than John Gosden, who won with a foreign shipper on a synthetic surface. So our trainers as a whole have not fared well in the Classic with 3-year-olds. So, that why, as you will read, I am starting to look at the older horses in a brighter light.
OK, now we can focus on this year’s running. As I mentioned last week, Fierceness, who I have never lost faith in, and Sierra Leone, who I defended for his three straight defeats, were Ranked first in all 14 weeks of this year’s Derby Rankings, with Fierceness on top eight weeks and Sierra Leone six weeks. Also, Forever Young was ranked as high as No. 5 without ever having raced in the United States, so this is all about our classic horses and how good they are. That is for each of us to determine.
Next we have to decide how they match up against European superstar City of Troy who has been targeting the Classic since he was a 2-year-old, being by Triple Crown winner Justify, but whose female family is all grass. I’m already confusing myself more just writing this.
As anyone knows who has been following my Breeders’ Cup picks over the years I am always looking for value and use favorites only in the exotics. I am still uncertain about City of Troy, with him breaking from an inside post, the kickback he could encounter, and the short Del Mar stretch. I have always rooted for Aidan O’Brien ever since spending a morning with him at Ballydoyle back in 2002, driving around with him and seeing what an amazing operation he runs and the extraordinary relationship he has with his horses and his exercise riders and grooms. No one in my opinion deserves to win the Classic more than O’Brien, who has supported the race for so many years, suffering two gut-wrenching defeats by Giant’s Causeway and Declaration of War and the tragic death of one of his all-time favorite horses George Washington in the slop at Monmouth Park, So I would be thrilled to see him win, and with a son of Justify.
But from strictly a monetary standpoint I have to focus on horses with more value and less question marks, I will say that if City of Troy can get the lead in the stretch he will be very hard to catch. That has been his m.o. in all his victories – get to the front and keep finding more gears, defying anyone to catch him.
So with all those short-priced 3-year-olds accounted for, I have already made my case last week for longshots Newgate and Arthur’s Ride as win bets. Watching all of Highland Falls’ races since then, studying his pedigree in depth, looking at his Thoro-Graph pattern, and talking to those close to him early on in his life and seeing how he has developed, I have to add him as a live longshot, who is one of the true mile and a quarter horses in the field, with numerous connections to the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, and who looks like he is ready to peak.
In each one of his races he has gotten more aggressive early and been closer to the pace, and in his last race, The Jockey Club Gold Cup over a dead racetrack, I loved the way he bulled his way between horses after the break, getting bounced around, and took it to Arthur’s Ride. He dogged him the entire way before putting him away and drawing off to a four-length victory, earning a career-best Beyer and Thoro-Graph number. At 20-1 I can’t pass him up for a win bet.
The reason I am throwing Tapit Trice into my all older horse exacta box mentioned below is that I was so impressed with him early last year I actually ranked him No. 2 9n the Derby Rankings in only Week 3 behind Forte even though he had never even run in a stakes and was coming off an allowance win. He had aleady been ranked No. 7 in Week 2 off a neck maiden score, something I normally never do.I wrote: “When this horse fully matures he is going to be a beast.” Well, he’s fully matured so we’ll see. He’s even higher odds at 30-1
So finally putting all that together I will bet Newgate and Highland Falls, both having run in the Santa Anita Handicap, to win, as well as Arthur’s Ride, a speed horse who can close. He will be much sharper and fresher and could get an uncontested lead this time, and he has shown he is capable of setting sharp fractions and still come home in :24 and change. As for my other overlay special fom last week, Sierra Leone, I feel he may be too short to bet to win and make big money. But I am expecting the same big closing punch from him that we saw earlier in the year, feeling he is much more mature now and finally going into a race fresh.
The more I look at the Thoro-Graph numbers the more I feel the older horses are faster in general and hold more value than the 3-year-olds, so this is where I will splurge. I will keep my original trifecta box of Fierceness, Sierra Leone, Forever Young, Newgate, and Arthur’s Ride, but I will go for a killing and make an all older horse exacta box of Newgate, Arthur’s Ride, Highland Falls, and Tapit Trice, and I’ll box each one with Fierceness and Sierra Leone, wth Forever Young a possibility. Don’t ask about City of Troy because it will only make for more confusion. If he wins and I lose I’ll still be happy, but just too may question marks. And I just don’t know what to expect from Next.
And finally in keeping with my payback for the money he has made me so far I will make my $50 minimum win bet on Fierceness, who I must say has really muscled out and looks fantastic. But I do wonder after watching the Travers over and over if he could have held off top-class older horses with the way he was striding out in the stretch. However, because of him and the money he has made me I can make some decent sized bets on both Friday and Saturday without having to deposit any money in my account.
Briefly, here are my thoughts on the other races:
JUVENILE TURF SPRINT
There isn’t a lot of pure five-furlong speed in here and do we really know how fast those first three finishers of the Flying Childers Stakes are? I am hearing the Japanese horse Ecoro Sieg is an absolute rocket who has set records, so let’s see what his odds are and what kind of value there is. Frankly, this would have been a much better race at 5 ½ or six furlongs. Then we would have a better idea what to do with Aidan O’Brien’s horses and Ecoro Sieg, as well as many of our horses. I will go with the speed of the speed, Governor Sam, who has run six times at six different racetracks, The favorite in this race might have been Mentee, but Todd Pletcher decided to stretch him out in the Juvenile Turf, so I’ll also put a few bucks to win and place on the horse who chased him in second in the Futurity Stakes, his stablemate Gate to Wire, whose Thoro-Graph numbers are right up thee with the favorites. But the key is how they bet Ecoro Sieg.
JUVENILE FILLIES
This race took a major hit with the defection of Non Compliant. Runaway Frizette winner Scottish Lassie should be very tough, but she’s a short price now along with Immersive and I love what I’ve seen of the Japanese filly American Bikini, who moves beautifully over the track and has been impressive in her two victories. She just has to break well from post 9,, with Scottish Lassie busting out of there from post 10. I have two price horses I like. One is the improving and very versatile La Cara from the Mark Casse barn and the Alcibiades runner-up Quickick, who ran a strong second despite not changing leads. If she runs back to her maiden win, in which she defeated Scottish Lassie, and even her Alcbiades, she has a big shot at a good price. And I see no reason why she won’t.
JUVENILE FILLIES TURF
This looks like a showdown between the undefeated Ballydoyle filly Lake Victoria, winner of two Grade 1 stakes who the Euros are gushing over and could be special, and the fleet California filly Thought Process, who has destroyed everything out there and has two wins over the Del Mar track. Is there anyone who can threaten these two brilliant fillies? Two to consider are the powerful closer May Day Ready, a back-to-back stakes winner in Kentucky with Frankie Dettori up, and the impressive Miss Grillo winner Scythian. While Thought Process’ Thoro-Graph numbers have remained steady with three straight 8 1/2’s, Scythian has improved with each race from a 16 to 14 3/4 to 10 3/4 and another similar move foward puts her right in contention, but she needs a big jump too match the 6 by Lake Victoria. But I have no strong feelings past the two favorites, who should be very tough. If Supa Speed gets in from the also-eligibles I would give her a shot. Why she is on the AE and at 30-1 coming off a stong second to Thought Process I have no idea.
JUVENILE
Again, there is not much to choose from on paper after East Avenue, Chancer McPatrick, Jonathan’s Way, and Gaming, all promising colts and potential Derby horses. You could take a shot that Japanese invader Shin Believe is a potential superstar after his five-length victory going 1 1/8 miles in his career debut. But for my overlay bet I will give Ferocious, who was considered superstar material after his dazzling maiden victory, another shot following two hard-luck defeats in the Hopeful and Breeders’ Futurity, in which he had terrible trips each time, once losing a shoe. His 7 ¾-length maiden romp in a brilliant 1:09 3/5 at Saratoga was something to see even if it was in the mud. So he’ll be a big price and is also worth boxing with the four favorites. I would go strong with East Avenue, who I have been very high on from day one and who exudes class even just jogging. I’m just not sure about drawing the rail and having a Baffert speedster Getaway Car right outside him, who could be in here to set it up for Gaming. But East Avenue could be special, so we’ll see how the race develops.
JUVENILE TURF
This race is totally wide-open, with your usual Europeans and a dangerous undefeated Japanese horse, Satono Carnival. Although Todd Pletcher has to be respected with Fierceness’ full-brother Mentee stretching out from six furlongs I give his other two horses Noble Confessor and Tenacious Leader a good shot at a big price. Tenacious Leader (SCRATCHED), who ran huge to be beaten a neck in the With Anticipation Stakes in his grass debut, is returning to the grass after a failed attempt at the Breeders’ Futurity. Unfortunately he drew post 14, but at least has Irad Ortiz in the saddle. Pletcher’s third horse Noble Confessor improved big time on the grass, finishing second by a neck in the Pilgrim Stakes. All three of his horses should be right with the pace and are very live. If youre looking for a closer to outclose the Euros, mainly New Century and Henri Matisse, consider Minaret Station, who is versatile and improving with every start and closed fast to win the Bourbon Stakes going away at 38-1. I think Mentee will be bet down because of his illustrious brother so I will play Minaret Station and Noble Confessor to win, and also throw in Tenacious Leader despite his bad post. All are good exotics plays with New Century, Henri Matisse, and Satono Carnival. Watch the odds on Satono Carnival, who has looked really good in the morning. He now looks like my main bet.
FILLY AND MARE SPRINT
This is another race where the main contenders are difficult to separate, Although, Ways and Means, Society, Vahva, Zeitlos, Scylla, and Soul of an Angel are all fast and classy, one would think Ways and Means could be on the verge of stardom, even though her last two races, both impressive stakes scores, were in the mud. She does have an impressive allowance victory before that, but she is only 3 and has never faced talented, hard-hitting older fillies like the ones she’ll be facing here. Rather than attempt to ty to sort these fillies out, I am going to mention one who is way under the radar, is undefeated in her two starts at Del Mar, and is coming off a strong Grade 3 victory going 6 ½ furlongs at Santa Anita. That is the lightly raced and improving One Magic Philly, who also at age 3 probably is not yet up to the task of beating all these fillies, but might be one to sneak into the exotics if several of the others aren’t as effective at a new track like Del Mar that can be a bit tricky. Also, do we know how good Bob Baffert’s lightly raced 4-year-old Pleasant really after blowing an allowance field away at Los Alamitos in 1:15 flat for 6 ½ furlongs coming off a 13-month layoff? I will box Vahva with several fillies in the exactas and bet he to win. The daughter of Gun Runner is a true seven-furlong specialist who is fast, classy, consistent and fresh off a layoff, has been tearing up the track in the morning, and is trained by red-hot Cherie DeVaux and ridden by Irad Ortiz.
TURF SPRINT
Most believe this race is about Cogburn, dubbed the fastest horse in the world. And they may be right. But the Euros are coming with several bullets of their own. However, their main hope, Bradsell, coming off four sensational races, drew the far outside in post 12, while their fast, but temperamental filly Believing drew the rail, and last year’s Juvenile Turf Sprint winner Big Evs breaks from post 11, putting all three Euros at a disadvantage, and no one wants to tackle Cogburn with even a slight disadvantage. Then you have the South African sprint machine Isivungovungo, who has already run here, winning the Da Hoss Stakes at Colonial Downs in very fast time. But he drew post 10. It was as if the draw was scripted by Cogbun’s connections. So I will just play good old Big Invasion in the exactas with these horses, hoping he turns in his patented big late run that he showed us in last year’s Turf Sprint, getting beat a neck by Nobals. One horse who is gettiing a lot of buzz is Star of Mystery, who has never run a bad race and ran a strong third to Cogburn in his record Jaipur win in her U.S. debut. She also is proven at five furlongs. If you think Cogburn is a lock she s a must play in the exotics. If youre looking to beat him she also is a must play. Now, if you are looking for a real bomb, consider that Frost At Dawn in Europe was a horse who was always on the pace and inconsistent, but did beat Star of Mystery handily in Dubai earlier this year. Sent to America, blinkers were added in the Grade 2 Fanklin Sakes at Keeneland and she came from dead-last in a 12 horse field to finish fifth, beaten only 1 1/2 lengths, and three-quarters of a length behind Star of Mystery.
DISTAFF
This is going to be very short. Although I am rooting hard for Thorpedo Anna like most people, I can either simply not bet and just cheer her on or I can figure the Travers gut-wrencher and then dropping back to 1 1/16 miles in the Cotillion and barely winning might be a sign she is starting to back off a bit after those two hard races. Normally I would say even backing off she can beat this field minus Idiomatic, but I just have the feeling watching her in the morning that the 7-for-7 Japanese star Awesome Result may be awesome herself. I just love the way she moves, with those long efficient strides and low action There is no way I am going to bet a penny on this race unless Anna is so overbet it makes Awesome Result an attractive proposition. So most likely I will just watch and hope Thorpedo Anna can put the pressure on Fierceness for Horse of the Year honors.
TURF
There surely are no big-name classic type horses like August Rodin or Enable in this field and only five U.S.-trained horses in the 13-horse field that lacks real star power other than the 2022 winner Rebel’s Romance , who has had a resurgence this year at age 6. If he wins the race again it will be his sixth victory in six different countries in the past year. Once again, that is countries, not racetracks, and it would push his career earnings over the $10 million mark. So what we have is a wide-open race with Aidan O’Brien trying to win with a pair of 12-1 morning line horses, one of whom is the up and down Luxembourg, who quietly has won Group 1 races at ages 2, 3, 4, and 5 and can surely win this on one of his up days. He is comng off two sixth-place finishes carrying 135 pounds, but was beaten only two lengths in his last start after setting the pace for Auguste Rodin and gets reunited with Ryan Moore. One interesting storyline is Frankie Dettori being reunited with John Gosden aboard the hard-knocking 5-year-old mare Emily Upjohn, who Gosden decided to run against the boys instead going in the Filly and Mare Turf, despite the daughter of Sea the Stars not having won a race in 17 months. The last time Dettori rode her she was beaten 27 lengths in last year’s King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes. She has run well this year, but has been unable to find the winner’s Circle. The top American horse probably is Far Bridge, winner of the Grade 1 Sword Dancer and Joe Hirsch Turf Classic. But he has had perfect trips in both races with everything go his way.
The horse I will be betting at 15-1 despite drawing post 12, and who no one is mentioning, is Gold Phoenix, despite the terrible record of California-based horses in the Turf. If you want a horse for course he has won three straight Del Mar Handicaps and his last start in the John Henry Turf Classic was a toss, as it was a totally paceless race and he still was beaten only three lengths while closing his last quarter in :22 1/5. In last year’s Breeders’ Cup Turf he closed from 10th to finish fourth, beaten 2 ½ lengths by Auguste Rodin and America’s top grass horse Up to the Mark, both of whom I believe would be favorite this year. The horse I bet in last year’s Turf at 25-1 was the Japanese invade Shahryar, who finished a fast-closing third along the inside, 1 ½ lengths ahead of Gold Phoenix, and I will be betting him again, as he is coming off the same two races he did last year.and is 10-1 on the morning line. Japan will also be represented this year by 20-1 shot Rousham Park, a winner of six of his 14 starts, but has been disappointing in his last two starts. However, I love the way he’s been training with such determination and the way he moves over the turf course. He might be worth a small bet at big odds. But my main bet will stay right in America for a change with Gold Phoenix over his home track.
FILLY AND MARE TURF
Yes we have Charrlie Appleby’s hot Godolphin gals Cinderella’s Dream and Beautiful Love, who have combined to sweep all three of our Oaks this year, and Aidan O’Brien’s Yorskshire Oaks winner and Irish Oaks runner-up Content, and John Gosden’s Pix de l’Opera runner-up Running Lion, a Group 2 winner at Royal Ascot this year. And O’Brien also has Ylang Ylang, who was beaten only 1 ½ lengths by the top-class Porta Fortuna in the Group 1 Matron Stakes two races back and was a Group 1 winner at Newmarket last year. It is interesting to note that Ryan Moore will be on her instead of Content. But my heart is with the 7-year-old wonder mare War Like Goddess, who has had nothing but bad luck and ill-timed moves this year and should have won this race back in 2021, and was a fast-closing third to Rebel’s Romance in the 2022 Turf. A premature move in the Turf Classic last out when Junior Alvaarado moved early to keep up with Silver Knott’s early move no doub cost he that race when Far Bridge nailed her with an inside move. She will be too short to bet to win, so it’s all about the exotics with her. The one ose I will bet to win is the ultra consistent Moira, who always packs a late wallop and finished third in this race last year, beaten only 1 ¼ lengths after a horrendous trip. She also gets Flavien Prat back and looks enticing at 8-1.
SPRINT
This race is all about speed and more speed, so we will look for someone who can come late and pick up the pieces. And the two I am playing are Nakatomi and for a real big price Gun Pilot at 20-1, who has come into his own this year for Steve Asmussen and won the Grade 1 Churchill Downs Stakes at seven furlongs. Alhough he couldn’t catch Mullikin in the Forego I like the way he pulled away from the rest of the field in the final furlong. You also might want to keep an eye on the odds on the Japanese horse Remake, a four-time Group winner who like many others from Japan has been training well at Del Mar. As for Nakatomi he has never finished off the board in 18 starts in the U.S. for Wesley Ward. His only poor finish came at Royal Ascot when he dwelt at the start of the Group 2 Norfolk Stakes at 2 and still was beaten only 5 ½ lengths He will be closing in the stretch assuming most of the chalk should be backing up after a likely brutal pace.
MILE
This is a four-horse box for me with Notable Speech, the 2,000 Guineas and Sussex winner who will relish the firm going, the brilliant filly Porta Fortuna, winner of three straight Goup 1 races in England and Ireland and a close second in last year’s Juvenile Fillies Turf, Ramatuelle, (SCRATCHED) coming off a three-length score in the Group 1 Prix de la Foret, the seven-furlong race at Longchamp that Goldikova used as her final prep for her three BC Mile victories, and my longshot special More Than Looks, whose explosive late run is going to nail Carl Spackler one of these days. This time his nemesis breaks from post 12 and will have to be used more early than he has been. I also hate leaving Johannes out after four straight graded stakes victories, one at Del Mar, and Aidan O’Brien’s Diego Velazquez, coming off two Group victories in Ireland, but this race is so competitive, as most BC Miles are, it’s going to be all about who gets the best trip, especially Carl Spackler, I will say whoever wins this race will deserve it. This is a tough one.
DIRT MILE
I can look at this race over and ove and see live horses such as Mufasa, Seize the Grey, Saudi Crown, Muth, and Skippylongstocking, and no matter how many times I look at it I keep coming back to Domestic Product, who has really found his niche, and although I would prefer to see him at one turn, like a true mile should be, he is such a relentless closer who really wants to win and right now I just can’t pick or consider anyone to beat him. He looks awesome physically and is coming into this race exactlly how you want him to, if you can forgive his Pegasus Stakes at Monmouth when he was drubbed by Tuscan Sky. He will be short odds so if you want some action it will have to be in the exotics with whoever you like (Mufasa and Post Time look most appealing to me). I’m not sure if Seize the Grey can get the clear lead he apparently needs, but I have to say he has grown into a powerhouse physically and I like the way he’s been training. But in the end this race to me is all about Domestic Product.
Good luck to everyone and try to stay sane.
Racing historian, author, and award-winning retired journalist for the Daily Racing Form and The Blood-Horse, Steve Haskin was inducted into the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame’s Media Roll of Honor in 2016. Known for his racing knowledge and insightful prose, he has been an exclusive contributor to Secretariat.com since 2020.
Adare Manor sells for 2.8, million to Yoshida family in Japan.
Here’s a shock for those who believe the older dirt male division is so weak compared to the three year old division in the US.
In the latest Longines World Best Racehorse Rankings the only 3 year old that is ranked higher than National Treasure and Senor Buscador is Fierceness.
Dornoch is ranked the same as National Treasure and Senor Buscador.
Even so, National Treasure and Senor Buscador are ranked higher than Mystik Dan, Sierra Leone and Thorpedo Anna. Cogburn is rated the same as these 3 year olds.
The old boys aren’t doing so bad after all, are they? Ha ha
Davids, I was speaking “collectively”
My thoughts on the Older Male Dirt Division (and the Eclipse) is that it is the weakest in the last decade.
Really no surprise when you consider the mass exit of 3 year old colts off stud, many with deals in the works as youg as 2. And the injuries, do not think we can leave that out. Many 3 year olds are just not sustainable.
The fillies, mares, geldings and the turf colts are faring much better.
If I had a vote on the Eclipse of older Dirt Male it would be for
Kingsbarn
John Sadler for Hall of Fame….Melair….Accelerate…Higher Honor…Flightline….Full Serrano….many other sprinters,
I played #s 12 and 2 in tonight’s Melbourne Cup….so many in the race ran just days ago! They run every two weeks….one horse ran November 1st…..
That’s a shrewd wager, Mathew. You may not win, lol, but I can see the logic. Best of luck.
Can you have too much racing? Ha ha Tomorrow, around 3 PM, at beautiful Flemington racecourse in Melbourne they will be the running of the 164th Melbourne Cup.
There is no other racing nation that has this kind of atmosphere surrounding a horse race. You have to be here to appreciate the joy that surrounds this race.
I’m involved in three seperate Melbourne Cup sweeps, the University, the neighbourhood, and the local shops and this is happening all over Melbourne. Strangers in the street will nod hello and then “who’s going to win ‘the Cup’” with a smile on their face.
I’ll be watching ‘the Cup’ at home because it’s a public holiday here in Victoria; Oaks day on Thursday is the day I’ll be going. Racing purists prefer Oaks day, ‘the Cup’ Is a bit too rambunctious for many. lol.
If you want to catch the Melbourne Cup outside Australia the Racing.com app will be showing the whole card. I’m hoping the US bred,, Onesmoothoperator, lucky no. 13 wins.
Today was a gorgeous day and Cup day is even better – picture perfect. Good luck.
Nelson, William Buick and Hollie Doyle are here. Best of luck, who do you like?
That sounds fantastic. It’s hard even to imagine a public holiday in honor of a race and conversations with strangers about who is going to win. It sounds like my kind of place. For those who like to watch on TV, I read that FS2 will be showing the Melbourne Cup Monday night from 9:30 to 11:30. I wish you a very happy holiday and good luck with the race.
Thanks Jiffy, enjoy the Melbourne Cup festival it’s so much fun, truely. The famous Flemington yellow roses should be in full display as well.
The whole card is live on a major TV station here in Melbourne from 10:30 am to 6 pm. Since early August onwards they have been showing full cards of Melbourne and Sydney races every Saturday from 12 pm to 6 pm.
Most people know the names and form of the horses running in the Melbourne Cup. The gossip is ‘who’s going to win ‘the Cup’?’ It was the same when I first visited Melbourne in 1970.
It will be election day here, so the atmosphere will be a bit different. Melbourne Cup seems an event to experience,
Todd, no the race still scrapes in on Monday in the US both Atlantic and Pacific sides. Best of luck on election day, the atmosphere could be volatile and electrifying. The world holds its breath on this outcome.
I’m glad to be here. By the way, you couldn’t have a better day for racing than today. No rain, no wind, bright sunshine around 75 degrees. Gorgeous day.
Athabascan scratched.
Cardiac arrhythmia, high risk for cardiac arrest.
Thankfully the vet’s prevailed and pulled him.
Connections going to file objection.
Hope owners lost their appeal.
We will be watching the Melbourne Cup at 9 pm tonight (Mountain Daylight Time) …
Picture perfect day here, Nelson. Good luck. I have champagne chilling. Ha ha
Yes, Lynda, there is always someone willing to damage racing for their own self interest.
There is a an anti racing group in Australia called ‘Nup to the Cup’ – apparently for the past 10 years they have been seeking publicity to try and stop people from enjoying the Melbourne Cup.
The above connections you mention just feed fuel to this ‘ginger group.’ Frustrating. Glad you’re back here.
Hi Davids,
Glad to be back!
I will not get to watch the MC. Can only watch on Fox Sports and I do not have a subscription to live stream.
I did look at the entries.
Just going by odds and trainer I looked at Vauban, Kovalchuk, Just Fine and Land Legend.
Looked up the shipper from Japan, Warp Speed, by Defrong (goes back to Secretariat) out of Deep Love.
Good luck everyone and safe racing for all!
That’s a shame, Lynda. Good luck with your selections. It’s so wide open really with 24 horses and the lesser lights are carrying fly weights so you never know really.
It’s just such a fun day here, the whole city is alive with energy and anticipation. They love their racehorses here in Melbourne.
Hi Davids. With a big smile in my face I say 2-Buckaroo will win the Melbourne Cup.
For the High 5 I am proposing 1-Vauban, 8-Land Legend, 14-Zardozi and the girl power of the mare 21-Positivity (79 to 1) and her female Jockey Winona Costin who has the family credentials to aspire winning the Cup… great storyline there….!
Hi Nelson, agree, Buckaroo should run well and best of luck with your High 5.
Of the the eight new apprentice jockeys for next year here in Melbourne, 7 are female to 1 male. That’s amazing really.
If Thorpedo Anna is HOY this year, why wasn’t Idiomatic last?
Because Cody’s wish was a horse of a lifetime they’ll be making a movie about Cody
She should have been…
So much to enjoy about the winners yesterday:
–Soul of an Angel winning her Grade 1 in her 41st start. Now that is old school!
–Thorpedo Anna making her case for HOTY.
–Moira getting her Grade 1. A mare people have enjoyed following.
–Rebel’s Romance, who doesn’t need to take his track, or even his country, with him.
–Sierra Leone not lugging in on Newgate, but keeping a straight line and winning his big race. Fierceness running well in defeat. Both of these colts seemed to have solved their problems from earlier in the year.
–The “I Stayed in My Stall and Won an Eclipse” award goes to National Treasure, as the East Coast older horses ran as poorly as some suspected they would.
Thanks for sharing the excitement of the cup ! Can u tell us a little about a few of your favorite horses to root for in it
Good news!
Plans were announced Sunday to bring back Anna, Forever Young, Fierceness, Full Serranno back in 2025 with the final decision on Sierra Leone to be made by the connections.
War Like Goddess is retiring.
Just want to comment briefly City of Troy.
Steve I recall you writing that he was an unknown in that which side of his pedigree was going to show up. You were right! Seems it was his dam.
It was my opinion all along that he was more his dam than his sire in every way.
Wishing his a bright future as a sire and a long, happy amd healthy life.
There are some harsh comments being made about Aiden which I think are very unfair (not on here).
I do not fault Aiden or Coolmore for one second trying him on dirt. In fact I wish more connections across all disciplines would think more out of the box.
It does bring one thought to mind as to why the shippers have limited success in our dirt races.
Preparing a horse in their home country for all the possible or as many as possible conditions and scenarios on American dirt tracks is a hard thing to do. I am confident however that Aiden and Japan will get their Derby and Classic.
The International flavor is good for our sport in my opinion.
All in all, other than Jayarebe, it was enjoyable and fun to watch.
Congratulations to all the winners and to all the horses who did their best.
Many new stars that I hope to follow.
Have a good week everyone!
The Japanese may not bring their two-year-olds next year as they were not up to their tasks on Friday. I feel like they lack maturity compared to their American peers…
The best performers among the 16 Japanese horses were Alice Verite (4th in the Distaff), Rousham Park and Shahryar(2nd and 3rd respectively in the Turf), Forever Young (3rd in the BCC), Ten Happy Rose and Geoglyph (4th and 5th respectively in the Mile)… No wins for Japan this time which confirms how hard it is, as you said, to travel thousand of miles to face the top American horses.
Seems Counter Point is missing lol. Shocker!
There’s a good article at HRN about future plans for yesterday’s winners and runners up. Great news is Fierceness is coming back pending a good check-up, but Sierra Leone’s future is undecided as yet. Many others intend to come back, including Forever Young, to next year’s BC. It would be great to see the rivalries continue.
I MEET TO SAY NO DOUBT ON TA ON HOY.
I’d love it if More Than Looks and Johannes come back for the 2025 Mile, Euros will have their hooves full….but THE HISA SCRATCHES! What will that do, to Foreign entrants in future running? Long way to get taken out of the race….
True enough, not much to pick from for Older Dirt Male Eclipse. Heck they all retire at 3.
If I could vote it would be for Kingsbarn.
Oops posted under wrong comment. Meant to comment under Davids.
After this long year and lots of doubters, Sierra Leone has shown that he’s grown up and he’s the real deal. I would second that for Fierceness too. But now that the dust has settled, I think the clear choice for Horse of the Year is Thorpedo Anna. I was so happy to hear that she’s coming back in 2025.
There should doubt about the horse of year 5 GR1 wins on the year. The horse ran 8 times this year 7wins 1 2nd in a GR1 race. This horse does not sit in barn go THORPEDO ANNA HOY.
Sometimes,when necessary, better to ” sit in barn”.
Fierceness and SL really proved themselves yesterday. They are just getting good, which is why we need them to come back. The older horses we saw yesterday were never the top of their crops, and performed abysmally. I enjoyed Chad Brown’s comments. He seems a straight shooter and a sportsman.
Todd, on reflection I disagree, when any of these 3 year olds win the Saudi Cup, come second or better in the Pegasus World Cup, come 1st, second, or even third in the Dubai World Cup as Senor Buscador has you may have an argument.
One race at Del Mar proves very little really.
In the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile two older horses thrashed the 3 year old Preakness Stakes winner, Grade 1 Pennsylvania Derby winner, Grade 1 Arkansas Derby winner, Grade 1 H. Allen Jerkins Memorial Stakes. Does that mean these 3 year olds are abysmal?
I just feel that the older horses this year were not a distinguished group, but someone had to win the races. So many promising horses from those crops were retired early for money or injury. I actually bet Full Serrano in the dirt mile. Seize the Grey had a nice year, but he is vulnerable to pace. I just think the development of Fierceness and SL eximplifies what the top horses can do if not rushed into retirement. I hope sportsmen can prevail and allow these horses to reach their potential.
Todd, I wasn’t actually defending the older horse division per ce but older horses did thrash the 3 year olds in the Dirt Mile. Three year olds that won 4 of the top 3 year old races no less.
Let’s see if Fierceness or Sera Leone can actually win a marquee International race in the future.
Davids the 2024 Eclipse winning older horse will be the worst ever Eclipse winner, including Points Off the Bench, the ill-fated Sprint Eclipse winner…
Matthew, there are so many weak Eclipse winners it’s endless but how many older US male horses or any other category for that matter have won around $13 million in prize money and faced world competition as has Senor Buscador? Answer – 5 others besides Senor Buscador.
Thorpedo Anna for horse of year bought for 40,000$ vs 2 million plus for sierra Kenny mc peek deserves the h o y award for his campaign of this horse and announcing he’s running her next year sierra /fierceness both deserving but blue blood connections have tons of awards let’s reward the mom nd pops of the industry
If we look at form and performances for the whole year, not just what have you done lately, Thorpedo Anna and Sierra Leone were the two most consistent for 2024. Neither have ever finished off of the board. Thorpedo Anna finished ahead of SL in the Travers. Fierceness has been fantastic in the 2nd half, but he came and went from that peak form.
Thorpedo Anna is deserving of HOTY, and she would get my vote.
I’m thrilled that it sounds like they will both be back next year! Gun Runner was better at 4, and a bunch of his offspring have been, too.
My sincere apology about the 3 year colt I thought was ridden by Frankie. I took that information off a racing group post and did not verify.
Jayarebe was the three year old European shipper and ridden by Sean Levey. Condolences to all of his connections.
Was good to see John Sadler dressed up, before the last race—he was outwardly confident in Full Serrano and the horse delivered a 1:35 2/5 off of a torrid pace he left them at the top of the stretch—Would have liked to hear from him but they must’ve not had time, Sadler has a serious horse….
I am really excited about Full Serrano! He is in capable hands. The Caro sire line LIVES!
Congratulations also to the Russells with “Posty,” who came on big when the seams opened up for him. They should be very proud of what they’ve done with that horse!
Katy I agree! I bet a big (for me) across-the-board wager on Full Serrano….then I noticed how low the Mire Than Looks/Post Time double was paying, and I put up an exacta, and it paid $100 for a buck! Posty was the character if the weekend, out there!
Congrats to More Than Looks and Cherie deVaux, who most definitely has arrived in the big leagues. And a big shout out to Donna Brothers of NBC/Peacock, who’s managed to ride horseback all day wearing white head to toe.
I hope Steve bet a couple of bucks on his longshot special More than Looks … the son of More than Ready was 20/1 in the ML and ended up at 6 to 1… the secret was out !
Steve also had Moira to win and Rousham Park place in his comments.
I did but what was with those odds? Got nipped for the exacta. I wish I made my 5 horse trifecta box on the Classic a superfecta finishing 1,2,3,4. I thought I had Newgate home free in third but Forever Young nailed him. What I was most proud of were my comments last week on Sierra Leone as a live overlay. All he reasons I gave he made happen. I thought Ferocious ran an amazing race.
Yes..Fierceness proved that he is an exceptional runner by goig 44.4 1:09 !:35 and still holding for second….Newgate will be tough in the Pegasus
I think Fierceness gets the Zenyatta award today: best performance in defeat.
I will 2nd that !!!
I know what you mean about Newgate, Steve. I wish Frankie had him a little further off that torrid pace. He still ran a fantastic race. Forever Young has Forever stamina !!!
Agree, Fierceness was best performance of the weekend, really….and what was Forever Young’s jockey thinking, the guy was riding him like a Quarter Horse, I guess they wanted to be up close—both of those horses ran lights out, in defeat—2021 crop is a good crop…
Your picks did very well. You handed out some great insight. I hope you did well. I just wish I had combined more of yours and mine on the exotics. Tough year though with as many surprises as there were on the totes. Anna looked spectacular.
This was first trip to Del Mar and San Diego and it did not disappoint Beautiful place and very friendly people in this town and up in Solana where I stayed. I’ll be back that’s for sure.
Congrats Steve and thanks for all your coverage.
LOL about DB.
Thrilled for Cherie, More Than Looks an entire team.
She is a class act!!!
I am so glad More Than Looks came through for Cherie! He really is a handsome son of More Than Ready. I’m glad to see some of his last babies getting it done! Jose Ortiz stands in his brother’s shadow so often, but I prefer his approach to riding, and was glad to see him show his skills. It all paid off!
Love your comment on Donna! Not only did she stay clean, she managed some decent Q&A’s while riding that jiggy palomino, who was FAR from mastering a smooth western pleasure jog. Two points for Donna B!
I am over the moon about Straight No Chaser’s win in the Sprint! Very happy for all his MyRacehorse connections. A thrilling race!
That was such a good ride and exciting finish, and yes – so happy for the connections!
Hey Counter Point! How did SL prevailing today work out for you?
Great race by Sierra Leone. He was a last minute add to my $1 exacta box and I ended up breaking even. Lost in the race when Newgate got past by FY in the last few strides. Right now my vote goes to Thorpedo Anna for HOY. She ran a lights out race. If Fierceness had won he would have got it hands down. COT bad start cost him but not sure he would have won. Fierceness, Forever Young and Newgate all ran super strong races with that scorching early pace….. Hats off to them !!! Arthur’s (who ) Rider and Highland (Where is he??? ) Falls never felt they were of the same class as horses above and in the case of Highland Falls Cox let everything the horse gained in the JGC go down the drain could have done better with a better training job… what a waste !!!
Good luck with the rest of the races.
But would not be surprised if Sierra Leone gets HOY. He didn’t run a bad race all year.
The girl takes it.
I think there is a case to be made for Anna, Fierceness, and SL. Tip o’ the cap to three different trainers who kept three very different horses in seriously good form for a long year!
None of the trainers are my favs. However, thinking Anna prevails.
So thrilled Sierra Leone broke through! Thought he had a good chance all summer. No I’m rolling in the virtual riches. Had both a tenner on Sierra Leone to win, and hit the exacta 4-horse exacta. Making more than $100 on a single race might lead me to actually start betting real money on the horses.
It has been fun being with all of you today.
Might be back later.
Congratulations to all the winners.
Thorpedo Anna should be HOY!!!
I agree with you about Anna!
Well Sierra got his pace! Fierceness ran lights out, he did the wet work! Prat…..is going to win The Eclipse, for that—Thorpedo Anna will get HOY, (just my musings)…..Owner said they would be back next year, with “Lefty”…..
The 3-year-olds are 1-2-3 in the Classic, and the cousins are 1-3. I think that mare-side bloodline still gets a gold star on the year. That was one of Fierceness’s best – gallant in defeat, with the half in :44. Why?!
Thankful that Sierra ran it honestly. He finally came into his own. Hope they don’t retire him yet!
I think Sierra Leone will be back next year.
Fierceness is a homebred for Repole, maybe he will be back.
Happy for Chad, Flavien etc all. SL finally got it all together.
Ashford bought into Fierceness, and will stand him at stud. Who knows if they’ll keep him running or require that he be shelved. In the winner’s circle, Sierra Leone’s owners all wanted to keep campaigning him. He will probably be a beast at 4!
Sierra Leone got his hot pace at last…great ride by Prat starting to drive hard in the last turn
Agree!
Spot on Nelson. I turned to my brother when they called out the half and said, “Here come the closers.” Not sure why Derma cooked his goose but he certainly stood no chance after that early pace of fire.
Oh well. My picks finished 2, 1. That is horse racing.
Congratulations to Sierra Leone!!!
Correction, 2, 3.
Congrats Rebels Romance.
Go Forever Young!
Running now with Heavenly Herd.
I think just 3 years old.
Heartbreaking
Condolences to all.
Just no good way to detect when those are going to happen. Joins Swale, likely Medina Spirit, and even the great Hickstead. So tremendously sad.
Thorpedo!
I know it was a weakened field, but that was Anna at her best, unlike in the Cotillion. She shouldn’t be penalized for it
She should be HOY now, with Fierceness not winning.
He ran 2nd, though, and he did beat her….I’m not sure how it will play out, TBH
Prayers Frankie ad Jayrbee
Oh, I know. My kid had Jayarbee, but went to play with her kittens, and didn’t see that part of the coverage. I hate to have to tell her bad news on this.
Didn’t see either. No word on Frankie.
Frankie up. Must be OK. He looks grim.
ANNA Yes,yes yes!!!
She will get a lot of votes for horse of the year honors…she got mine ..what about your vote?
Depends on Fierceness. If he loses, then yes Anna!!!
I feel the same way! Congratulations to Kenny McPeek and his team (it is his first Breeders Cup win in 37 tries), and especially to breeder Judy Hicks.
Love it! So cool to see Anna come to the winner’s circle, and the actual person who foaled her out and imprinted her as a foal was there waiting for her. How cool that they said “yeah, sure!” when Judy Hicks asked to stay in on Thorpedo Anna.
She is fantastic, and I think that was the HOTY performance. Hard to have a better body of work. Seeing her accelerating on the turn into the lead change is an absolute pleasure, and those pretty pricked ears on the way back to the winner’s circle make my heart so glad. What a treat for racing fans all year, and Kenny says we get her back next year, too! Woohoo!
Hip, hip, hooray for Thorpedo Anna! A dear friend of mine who loved racing but especially loved the great fillies and mares passed away in September, and I have to believe she was smiling down on Anna’s victory today.
Steve and all, while I do not necessarily need to explain my absence from the site, I want too.
My life has been a roller coaster ride since April.
My husband has had repeated bouts with bacterial pneumonia for years. It became critical back in April when he was rushed to the ER 3 times in one month. The third time he almost died before EMT could get him to Athens Regional.
He spent a week in Pulmonary Intensive Care then 3 days in step down intensive care. Upside is that we finally got a diagnosis. He has Stage 4 COPD (no, he does not smoke or vape). It has taken several months to get his inhalation meds adjusted and finally convincing his PCP that Prednisone prevents attacks.
In the middle of all this I fell and damaged the cartilage on the inside of my knee. I took care of myself like I was a horse. I could not have surgery, had to be here for my husband during that critical time. My knee did finally heal.
(My doctor laughed when I told him I treated my knee like a horse).
In addition we had a major waterpipe issue under our old farm house. Had to wait almost 4 weeks for a licensed plumber to replace it all.
Just as I was thinking everything was finally calming down we had Helene come through and no power for almost 36 hours. My husband had to go twice a day to the EMT office to use his nebulizer. Helene took out the power within a 50 mile radius when 2 main power transmission lines came down. Only two places had generators, the EMT office and our small hospital. Helene also destroyed our pecan crop. Poor squirrels!
Our daughter and her family live in Volusia County in Florida. Their power was out for 3 days including some cell phone service.
Just as I thought things were settling down, I developed vestibular neuritis in my left ear and had started in the right. It caused vertigo and has affected by balance. I will be
OK.
Then one of my mares got gas colic, she is OK thanks to vet who is also my friend. My husband’s nebulizer quit working, none in this little town, finally found one but now medical equipment requires a prescription! Now my tablet is going out. And my husband’s new cell phone is doing stupid things.
My sister-in-law in Virginia passed away after a long illness and we could not make it to funeral.
I feel truly blessed however. Compared to what everyone has gone through in Western North Carolina this is small stuff.
We only lost food in the fridge. The freezer held, did not lose any of that food. A dead tree fell during Helene and just scraped the side of my barn. Horses and donkey OK. We had 75 MPH wind gusts. Our daughter had minimal damage to her home. Both granddaughters are still in college in Florida and they were OK. Oldest is studying be a small animal vet.
Things have come in dozens, not in threes around here, LOL
Anyway now you know!
Will admit I am loving turf more and more.
Victoria Lake was the best race yesterday!
Will be interested to hear what you thought about her Steve.
Good luck everyone and safe racing to all!
Lynda, I am so sorry you and your family have been through so much recently. It sounds incredibly stressful. I hope that things will quiet down so you can have some uneventful–or at the very least, less eventful–days. You deserve them! I’m sending you good wishes.
Lynda, hang in there. 2024 is on the downhill slide now! I am so glad that you’re able to enjoy horses with all of us today! I hope you and your family have excellent days ahead.
Lynda, thank you for sharing what you’ve been going through. It can be numbing to have so many things going wrong over a long spell of time. As arlingtonfan said, here’s hoping for some uneventful days and a chance to regain your equilibrium — and I hope at least one of today’s races gives you joy.
Lynda, your resilience is admirable. Country people are survivors.
Thanks Lynda for sharing your experiences lately…
We all have had our stormy days. I see that overcoming all those vicissitudes made you stronger. I really admire your brave character and sensiblity.
I hope you can now enjoy “the calm after the storm” …
“Every day may not be good … but there is something good in every day”
Alice Morse Earle
Thank you all for the kind words.
Means a lot to me!
Here are my picks for today. Some races I will not make choice until I see the horse on the track and may even change my mind when I see them.
4th race F/M sprint
$2 win & place and $10 to show on Pleasant
7th $ 1 exacta box Shahryar, Luxemborg, , Far Bridge & Rebel Romance
$5 WPS on Shahryar
8th $1 box exact Forever Young (wish he had a better post), City of Troy (until he proves he can’t run on dirt I have to play him), Fierceness (just looks too good), Ushba Tesoro, Newgate.
$ $5 to WPS on Newgate.
That’s all for now.
Good luck to all !!!
BC Classic- Ubsha “refuse to lose” Tesoro
Rats. Awesome Result was scratched from the Distaff.
Just saw that. There goes my exacta, but I’m “plunging” $20 on Anna.
Who is left against Thorpedo. Anna?
What a disappointment! The Distaff looked like the marquee race 10 days ago.
All these horses, top horses….taken out by HISA—-were all going to go wrong?
My personal ability to tolerate breakdowns is not good, and getting worse. However, I don’t see where “scratched – reason unavailable” is going to get our sport.
I want to know exactly how they’re making these decisions, and then I’ll be happy to accept all the scratches they pass along.
Lynda you dont get YouTube on TV or your
Computer?
Yes I do and on my phone.
If I know the link to the live stream on you tube I can watch live racing.
That is how I watch the Royal Ascot usually and how I watch the Dubai World Cup.
Those options are getting fewer and fewer however.
I pay for live stream Peacock, $6.99 a month.
No longer have cable TV. Just way too expensive.
My husband has ROKU.
Diego Velazquez is out. O’Brien didn’t like how he looked on the track earlier, so they took him out. To quote Slim Pickens, “I am depressed.”
As usual, many of today’s races are extraordinarily difficult to handicap, especially for this punter. There are so many potential winners, even without considering longshots. Here goes:
Race 4 F&M Turf (possible boxed exacta)
Zeitlos
One Magic Philly
Race 5 Turf Sprint
Bradsell
Isvunguvungu (unbeated runner from S. Africa)
Race 6 Distaff (boxed exacta)
Thorpedo Anna
Awesome Result
Race 7 BC Turf
Wingspan
Jayarebe
Race 8 Classic
Sierra Leone
(Other choices: Fierceness, City of Troy, Forever Young)
Race 9 F&M Turf (boxed exacta)
Moira
Warlike Goddess
Race 10 Sprint
Federal Judge
Bentornato (longshot bet)
Race 11 BC Mile (turf)
Porta Fortuna
(Notable Speech, Carl Spackler, and Johannes won’t be a surprise)
Race 12 Dirt Mile
Domestic Product
Lynda you dont get YouTube on TV or your computer?
O’Brien won twice yesterday….D’amato had two nice 2nds….Bob ran one/two…..I played Chad twice and didn’t fare well, Ive hit big on Chad before, in the Breeders Cup….I did have a winning day, though—-today Japan will bring out their big horses….I like “Whitey” in the Classic—Arthur’s Ride, and “Lefty”—Sierra Leone! Safe trips to all …
Happy Breeders’ Cup Saturday, everyone! I am grateful for the presence of this group.
Wishing safe trips to all. Enjoy the day’s races!
Thank you af!
Pedigree Notes that may be relevant to Secretariat.com – Juvenile Winners:
Magnum Force: no inbreeding through 5x. No Secretariat; however, goes back to Bold Ruler and Princequillo. Hail To Reason line strongly represented among usual Euro suspects.
Immersive: no inbreeding through 5x. Weekend Surprise on her papers, with Seattle Slew. In 5th gen.: Terlingua, Secretariat, Alydar, and Spectacular Bid.
Lake Victoria: damsire (Showcasing) goes back to Gone West, therefore Secrettame; also goes back to Man O’ war via In Reality.
Citizen Bull: no inbreeding through 5x; Terlingua in 5th gen., Affirmed on his papers (4th).
Henri Matisse: Secrettame and Six Crowns 5th gen. sire-side; Mill Reef on his papers. Princequillo top and bottom 6th gen., independent of Secretariat.
Great info Katy. Thanks.
Why would anyone watch NBC if they can watch the FanDuel stream. So much better. No insane camera angles and just much much better coverage with so many more knowledgeable people. Great paddock interviews. And how did Larry Collmus miss East Avenues stumble?
Steve, to watch on Fan Duel, you have to set up a betting account.
Cannot, betting is not allowed in Georgia.
Lynda, I bet there’s a VPN work-around. You can set up a VPN in another state and do your FanDueling from it.
This is how we watched Braves games on MLB a few years back, because they black them out in SC because of our cable market. Gave up on that and just listen to the radio feed for free now.
Glad to see your posts! Hope all is well, or getting closer to it!
I tried that Katy.
If I get caught I could get into a.ot of trouble.
Georgia has really strict rules about sports gambling.
Would have to give my daughter’s address in Florida. Not sure she would agree to that.
She is against horse racing.
Shucks! That’s so weird about the gambling aversion in GA.
Have you looked at Del Mar’s website? I watched the entire 2015 BC using Keeneland’s live feed on their website.
Used to do same.
Yes. Thought they would do better.
Not sure if they sent all their turf stars.
Think there are some big races in that region this weekend.Been out of loop on all racing for weeks so I could be wrong about
I agree with Steve above. If anyone deserves the Classic it is Aiden!
Or you can pay through the nose and see it on cable. I suspect it’s not available in your state, however.
Depends on cable provider one uses.
Comcast is out of sight. Almost $150 a month and that is without HBO etc.
When we first moved here there was a horse racing channel. That was in the days of TVG.
Back home in Vifginia we could not get cable…too tar out in the boonies.
Cannot get AT&T satellite TV because of my pecan trees.
What I get for living in the boonies I guess.
Maybe Elon Musk will give me a Starlink. HA HA
He must have been watching the idiotic camera angle NBC had at the break. They were like, “we have time for one more artistic sunset shot!” And they didn’t. It made that race confusing to watch.
More Sat. Picks
FM Turf Cinderella’s Dream up top. Beautiful Love, War L Goddess, Ylang, Content, Moira under.
Sprint Don Frankie over Gun Pilot, Nakatomi, Remake, Mullikan, Fed J
Turf Mile Diego Velazquez up top. Porta, Notable, Ten Happy Rose, Johannes under.
Dirt Mile Mufasa up top. Domestic P, Port Time, Saudi Crown, Seize, Muth, Skippy all under.
Good luck to all.
Sat. PIcks
Classic I like Forever Young and Derma up top. Fierceness, Newgate, Sierra, Highland under in exotics.
FM Sprint I like Vahua over society, ways n means. Value added using Pandora’s Gift, One Magic Philly, Scylla.
Turf Sprint Cogburn and Bradsell up top. Using Believing Starlust and Big Evs under.
Distaff Love Thorpedo but Awesome Result looks like she will get the race. Using Candied, Batucada, Sugar Fish and Raging Sea under top two.
1.5 Turf. Rebel R and Shahryar up top. Lux, Emily, Rousham Park under
Short posts. Issues with tablet.
Thrilled for Aiden, Coolmore and Ryan on both Henry Matisse and as mentioned below, Victoria Lake.
Just personal opinion but I, along with couple of my friends, think Ryan and Victoria in the Filly Turf was the best race on Friday.
She was as impressive as the hype, and Ryan has to be the least demonstrative jockey I’ve ever watched – and horses of all ages love quiet confidence. Fantastic showing in a trip that could have been an excuse to throw that one out for years. I think she’s a budding superstar.
Rough start, got pushed to rail, first time at 2 turns and this distance and not bothered by turf conditions and she traveled great…and such a lovely mare.
A star in the making!!!
Lake Forest wins the 10 million Golden Eagle at Rosehill for William Haggis, Silver Racing.
The Breeders’ Cup should try to replicate how Australian racing is filmed, the Australian racing product is so superior.
Double protest here, it’s been going on for over 30 minutes…finally, no change.
Thanks for the update Davids… do you think William Buick will be on time to ride Vauban in the Melbourne Cup this Monday… it would be quite a trip from San Diego to Melbourne. I admire those European jockeys who have to travel a lot for their jobs
Hi Nelson, no problems with William Buick getting to the Melbourne Cup. Same with Hollie Doyle.
Hey Bill Dawson you seem to be unusually quite lately… specially in giving your picks. Anyway, I am sharing my pick 6 so as to try piquing your views for tomorrow.
7)2-Emily Upjohn, 10-Wingspan
8)1-Forever Young, 2-Highland Falls, 3-City of Troy, 11-Sierra Leone
9)3-Cinderella’s Dream, 4-War Like Goddess
10)10-Mullikin
11)6-Notable Speech, 7-Porta Fortuna
12)10-Muth
In the Goldikova Stakes a good trifecta would be:
10-Raqiya(6/1)
1-Aspen Groove(5/1)/ 2-Sacred Wish(4/1)/ 3-Fluffy Socks(10/1) / 4-Mouffy(10/1)/ 5-Fuente Ovejuna(20/1)/
Nelson, my selections are nearly identical to yours except for races 10 and 12!
Thanks Lynda … I see Mullikin as the best chances of Flavian Prat to win today…
and Muth was suppossed to be on top of his class until his last blunder
Worried that Forever Young is up against it. Japanese horses were nowhere to be seen yesterday, and the 1 spot failed under East Avenue’s break. Maybe FY is lighter on his feet, but I’m sort of pre-bummed.
Hey Nelson,
My Pick 6 for today are as follows:
7) Rebel’s Romance
8) Next
9) Full Court Felicia, Cinderella’s Dream, War Like Goddess, Moira
10) Raging Torrent, Federal Judge, Nakatomi, Mullikin
11) Diego Velazquez, Notable Speech, Porta Fortuna
12) Domestic Product
Good luck Nelson.
Thanks for your picks Bill… your pick 6 is cheaper now with Diego Velazquez scratched…
Good luck with marathoner Next in the BCC … he would be a great headliner if he makes it …
Welcome back Bob! Amazing almost 1,2,3 👏👏
Sure, all hail the king.
Yep Nick pretty amazing !!!
All I can say is “Praise the Lord ” . I made my bets before I left my house. I was able to make it to my brother’s house just before the post parade for the Juvenile.. What a beautiful race. John you couldn’t have said it any better… Masterful!!!!
BTW. EAST AVENUE shades of Dennis Moment. I hope he is OK.
Dennis Moment was never the same.
Oh, I hope not! The way the camera was at the start, I couldn’t see the bad break. I didn’t like it when announcer said EA looked “uncomfortable.” Glad he came
in on all 4 legs.
Hope East Avenue is OK after his blunder at the starting gate..
Happy fot Martin Garcia in this amazing come back to Baffert tutelage
East Avenue nearly went down, Nelson and Downy. His race was kaput instantly. I don’t know what happened to Chancer McPatrick; was really disappointed in the performance of both East Coast stars. I hoped Gaming would win, but of the Bafferts, Citizen Bull was the one that pulled it off (after all, they had the home track advantage), I see Bull as a sprinter/miler type, but since he’s now won two Grade 1s, he’s likely to be named 2YO champion.
I also thought that another son of Into Mischief trained by Baffert named Authentic was a miler at best but he proved to be more than that… Citizen Bull at least has more stamina in his female family side.
Anyway, let’s see how East Avenue comes out that brutal break … he was protected by Tyler and did not run much … Godolphin still has an exciting prospect in the son of Medaglia d’Oro… And Godolphin’s Sovereignty, on the other hand looks like a powerful closer … which is an uncommon running style for a son of Into Mischief. Sovereignty got Classic potential as well…
East Avenue is still my favorite of this year’s 2YOs, and I’ve been impressed with Sovereignty as well. Just hope I can spell his name correctly. For the record, Citizen Bull got a whopping big overnight Beyer, a 96. Will be interesting to hear from Steve (eventually) what the ThoroGraph number/pattern is.
I like East Avenue as well. That was a bad stumb.e. Hope he is OK.
Agree Nelson.
They need each other
Well put…!
Baffert just turned in a masterful performance with at least two of his babies and almost got the third in time. Well Citizen Bull and Gaming. Kudos to Baffert and his team….looking forward to them in the KD.
They have to stay in one piece first,right? With their trainer, coin toss…at best!
Congrats Coolmore
Lake Victoria (Frankel)
Juvenile Fillies Turf
Lovely, lovely filly!
Lynda, great to see you posting again! You spilled the beans (we stopped to eat dinner), but since Lake Victoria was my pick in that race, I am thrilled.
Oops…sorry!
Make sure you watch the replay. You will love it!!!
No worries. I was on “tape delay” as we used to call it. Now it’s being held in the Cloud.
Ms B, Arlington fan –
Victoria goes back to Secretariat via Gone West.
The Frankel babies are just about the prettiest colts and fillies I have seen in a long, long time.
I’m butting in – agree about the Frankel offspring!
If I was Juddmonte, I’d put Idiomatic on a plane and send her to Frankel. A++ True Nicks. Interestingly, she nicks A++ with none other than American Pharoah stateside. And for the Justify fans, that’s an A+.
Would like to see that mating!
Lynda, so happy you’re with us!
Thank you
I’m watching the Breeders Cup on USA. I just learned that they are not covering the Juvenile Turf, which might be the one I most want to see. I do not get Peacock or FanDuel. Is there any way I can watch the race live or do I need to wait for the replay?
I understand you can subscribe instantly to Peacock (just be sure to cancel later).
Thank you for the information. I decided not to get into a subscription because I always find it too difficult to get out, but I wanted to be sure that there wasn’t some easy option that I didn’t know about. You answered my question and later the broadcasters confirmed it. I can eventually watch a replay on the Blood Horse site. But I am extremely annoyed that NBC would buy up the TV rights to all fourteen races and then show only twelve of them. They aren’t showing much consideration for their viewers.
I agree, Jiffy — especially since there was a very long inquiry after the finish. One horse (probably the offender, since he tried to get through a closing hole) nearly went down.
That said, Fanduel immediately went to the Meadowlands after the race was official. LOL.
It’s was on YouTube today. Maybe tomorrow again LIVE.
My thanks to both of you. I looked up the video on YouTube, and I was happy to be able to watch it without first learning who had won. So it was almost like seeing it live. Unfortunately, I didn’t enjoy it much because Mentee, the horse I really wanted to win, stopped badly and was never a factor. The video I saw on YouTube didn’t discuss the inquiry or the incident that caused it, but the one on the Blood Horse site showed it many times from many angles so you could understand what happened. It was really scary , and both the horse and rider were very fortunate to avoid falling.
I have Peacock. Living in a no gambling state other than that hideous lottery that destroys people’s lives, I cannot watch most races.
Very easy to subscribe and then cancel Peacock.
Just have to be willing to put up with the commentary.
Jiffy, have they blocked the Breeders’ Cup app? I watched all races on the card with no interruptions. The FanDuel coverage on the app never left the racing but perhaps this is just for the international audience.
The Breeders’ Cup website usually shows all the races live as well.
The problem may be my computer illiteracy. I went to the Breeders Cup site but I couldn’t find any live races. I know I found some last year because Elite Power’s race was not televised on channels that I get. I wanted to see it and I did on some computer site. But I couldn’t find the races today, and I remember that I couldn’t the year Flightline won and my cable TV box was out. Maybe I’ll try again for the last race today.
Jiffy, the front page has WATCH in red on the left side in the middle. Click the red box, a box comes up in the middle where you have to put your email in. once you do this you go straight to the Breeders’ Cup races.
Good luck.
that’s front page of breederscup.com
Thank you. I watched the last race on the Breeders Cup site and I was able to find it easily. I also enjoyed the coverage there and the camera angles–close-ups of people being interviewed that you don’t get on NBC. I liked seeing Joel Rosario’s expression when Mr. Dorman was speaking about Cody. They also leave the prices and results up longer than NBC, which I appreciated. I’m glad I got to see all that.
Steve, what a labor of love! I’ve yet to even download the PPs for tomorrow’s races and just made a first pass on today’s card. So far I haven’t picked a winner, but I am hoping to have time to digest all your insights BEFORE the races begin tomorrow.
Today, I like the following horses:
Juv T Sprint — Aesterius and a hunch virtual bet on your suggestion, General Sam
Juv Filllies — La Cara or Vodka with a Twist in a mild upset of Immersive
Juv F Turf Mile — Lake Victoria
Juv — East Avenue, with a possible upset by Gaming (or maybe that’s a boxed exacta)
Juv Turf — New Century in a boxed exacta with Satono Carnaval
Caught the video of you on The Owner’s Box. It was really great to hear you TELL the stories you’ve written here on the blog. Good luck to you with your $4 bets.
Oops, I DID have Twirling Queen. I liked her a lot more before she closed at odds on.
Steve, I have enormous respect for your knowledge and analysis of races, but have to take issue with your comment that Seize the Grey “apparently needs the lead”. He won the Pat Day Mile with a stalking trip, and in fact retreated to 5th or so at one point before making his run to win the race. But thanks for acknowledging what a “powerhouse” specimen he’s become, and how great he’s been training, firing bullet after bullet!
Big difference between one turn and two turns. Has he ever run good going two turns when he wasnr on the lead? And even then I used the word apparently.
I find this a particularly interesting Breeders Cup because there are so many good horses and maybe evenly matched fields. In the Classic and the Juvenile you could make a case for almost anybody. I’ve been a fan of Fierceness ever since his first race, and any time he runs I’m picking him. If his odds go way down, they shouldn’t because there’s too much good competition here. But I’ll be cheering for him no matter what.
The horse that interests me most today is Fierceness’ brother Mentee. I liked his two wins, and he may have had an excuse in the Hopeful because he had been ill. He’s starting out with his brother’s pattern of good-bad-good, but hopefully that won’t carry over into today’s race. On this card he’s the one I most want to see win.
As for the Juvenile, I’m still up in the air. So many of them look good. For different reasons–some logical, some not–I’m debating between Chancer McPatrick, Gaming, and Ferocious. I’ve got a couple hours to make up my mind.
I hope everyone has a wonderful Breeders Cup weekend with safe and satisfying races. Go Fierceness and Mentee!
I am sill so up in the air about what to expect from Next. I have absolutely no idea how he fits against these horses. Add him to City of Troy and this race is a complete enigma. He could pull a Fierceness in the Ky. Derby or a Flightline in the Classic. Nothing would shock me with him.
Your appraisal conforms with the totally binary impressions about City of Troy .
Tell me about it … I first had the impression of City of Troy being an Alpha Male and that his leg extensions (i.e. no high-knee action), cadence and ruthless speed makes him suitable for the dirt… then I heard Jerry Bailey saying that City of Troy is too feminine and looking totally “turfy”. The same dichotomy exists about his pedigree… the general perception is he will be brilliant or a dud on dirt.
The issue of kickback is worrisome for City of Troy. It was reported that Galileo ended up his BCC run with swollen eyes from the kickback and sore pasterns from the Belmont dirt. However, City of Troy won’t take much kicback if he is able to break second or third… I know the plan is to send City of Troy to the lead from the getgo.
I believe we could see an Arazi moment in the Breeder’s Cup if City of Troy is able to grab the lead comming to the last turn… but then again, Amerian speed on dirt has proven again and again to be unassailabe to European (turf) horses based in Europe.
In a year without a clear American star we have to rely on the Japanese and European superstars to shine tomorrow under the beautiful weather along the ocean Pacific coastline.
I like Zulu Kingdom today…playing across the board and exacta box with New Century…..I’ll give Magnum Force and Quickick smaller wagers, they both have a chance at a price…..safe trips for the heroes, the horses and riders—and good luck to the players and punters!..
I’ll add my Saturday Plays later, I also like Star of Mystery the filly…
i have made several additions to my analysis of the Turf Sprint.
Good analysis Steve of the upcoming BC races. I will only be playing the Saturday card. Unfortunate scratch of Ramatuelle In the Mile. I like Porta Fortuna as well as Notable Speech and Diego Velasquez. My top 4 I. Order for BCC are Forever Young, Highland Falls, Sierra Leone, Fierceness. I will use those 4 in my P5 and P6. I’ll be playing a $6 TRI in BCC with HF on top. 2/1,9,11/1,9,11. Hopefully no more scratches coming , although with such big fields and tight Vet scrutiny, you know more scratches are inevitable.
Breeders Cup Juvenile I like Gaming. Rested, good works, 1st time routing. A 1:41 clocking should take this edition.
Fridayi6th. I will go with Escoro Sieg and Big Mojo to win. Under I like Shareholder, Arizona Blaze, Aesterius, Whistlejacket.
7thQLassie look best. Under, quickick, Nooni, immersive
8th
Lake Victoria gets the win. Under, Thought Process, Heavens Gate, Kilwin, Fiery Lucy
9th
Eastern Avenue and Shin Believe up top. Under, Chancer McPatrick, Ferocious, Citizen Bull, and Jonathans Way
10th
Wide OPEN. I will box Satono, Al Qudra, New Century, Henry Matisse. Seagulls and Amori City add value under.
Good luck to all today.
typo on 7th. I like American Bikini and Scottish Lassie for the win.
Thanks Steve, I’ve just read the Juvenile sections because everything is catching up too quickly after a lengthy luminal period. I agree with you that East Avenue isn’t the lock that many think, especially with all the Baffert colts to work against him. Like you, I like the chances of Ferocious, Gaming, and Shin Believe.
I like the chances of May Day Ready, Scythian, to upset the Juvenile Fillies Turf as you do and the Japanese filly American Bikini has impressive me as well in the Juvenile Fillies.
During the week I’ve heard so many contradictory comments about City of Troy from knowledge people some say he has turfy action others say he’s definitely more a dirt horse than turf. It’s what I always think, you see what you want to see.
Best of luck to all. So much fun to enjoy.
Thanks for this comprehensive assessment of all the 14 Breeder’s Cup races.
I agree with your comments about Highland Falls being bound to peak on Saturday. I was impressed by the energy he is showing in his gallops at Del Mar… He looks very happy to be in the place where the turf meets the surf… I believe Luis Saez’s vigorous style will bolster the chances of the son of Curlin specially by taking full advantage of the PP 2 at Del Mar configuration.
As it has been customary in the World Championship festival we are always curious to see the performances of Aidan O’Brien’s army and the exploits of Godolphin representatives.
Aidan O’Brien is represented by ten first-line runners led by City of Troy (BCC), Lake Victoria (Juvenile Fillies Turf). Then at higher odds he the master trainer got Whistlejacket, Ides of March (Juvenile Turf Sprint), Henry Matisse (Juvenile Turf), Content (Fillies & Mares turf), Luxembourg and Windspan (Turf) and Diego Velazquez (Mile).
From Godolphin I also like the chances of East Avenue in the Juvenile, Al Qudra (Juvenile Turf), Immersive (Juvenile Fillies), Notable Speech in the Mile, Rebel’s Romance (Turf), and Cinderella’s Dream in the Filly and Mares Turf.
Anyway, following Steve’s lead it is time to put our predictions to the test and present our selection …
My pick 6 for tomorrow reads as follows:
5) 3-R Heilsman, 4-I’am a Bad Boy
6)2-Aesterius, 3-Big Mojo, 7-Whistlejacket, 8-Ecoro Sig
7)3-Immersive, 8-Nooni
8)1-Lake Victoria
9)1-East Avenue
10)4-Al Qudra, 13-Henry Matisse
The Juvenile Turf Sprint is the race promising a very good payout for the exotics… 9-Shareholder and 10-Governor Sam at 12 to 1 are very plausible additions to juice up the Trifectas and Superfectas.
I wish all a very happy Breeder’s Cup, safe trips and good luck to all.
Steve,
Your comments regarding 4YOs that seems be getting good appears to focus on only those with G1 wins.
Pyrenees finished ahead of both Arthur’s Ride and Tapit Trice in the JCGC. He closed from several lengths behind the two for his 2nd place finish. Shouldn’t he be considered an improving 4YO, given he was absent for approximately a year?
Furthe on the subject of improving 4YOs. Cagliostro was defeated by Highland Falls by 1L in the 9F Blame Stakes completed in 1:48 plus. He was the next out winner of the 8F Hanshin listed Stake in 1:34 plus that featured a 1:22 plus 7F split.
Your favorable assessment of Highland Fall certainly flatters Cagliostro who was absent for 9 months and has returned a much-improved colt at 4. At 30/1 with one of the Ortiz brothers, he must have a shot in the BC Dirt Mile.
Pyrenees at a big price has merit and I wouldnt dispute anyone who likes him, but I have to stop somewhere or I’ll be touting everyone.This is the Breeders Cup and they all have earned their way here.
Steve ,
As always great analysis of the races. This year is very hard as you have stated with all those foreign entries that you can’t take likely (especially the Japanese horses) as was the case in the past. I will be only commenting on one race right now and that will be the Juvenile dirt.
I will be playing exacta keys with 2 horses, Gaming and Citizen Bull. I will have both on top and bottom along with on the bottom East Avenue, Chancer McPatrick, Jonathan’s Way and Getaway Car. I like Martin Garcia back on Citizen Bull as he is pretty good on getting a horse out of the gate and I really like his aggressive works in the morning. He is a true frontrunner and will fight to the end. Gaming with the time off has had time to recoup and mature a little. With no Pletcher horse in the field he get the services of Irad Ortiz who as most know is competing with Flavien Prat for jockey of the year honors. I am sure he will be trying hard in this race with him.
Will be on the road tomorrow to go visit my brother who one year ago (day after the Breeders Cup) suffered a catastrophic stroke and first 9 months has been in and out of the hospital but in the last few months has been responding better. We will be watching Saturday’s races together. Will give my Saturday picks either late Friday or early Saturday.
Good Luck to all !!!
Great call! Congrats
Thanks KMI, Got the rides I was hoping for.
Tenacious Leader scratched out of the Juvenile Turf, (fever).
Thanks for the update Bill… many things can happen in one day including the vet scrutiny finding the minimal “misalignment” in horses to scratch them … i.e. The Chosen Vron
Thanks for your thorough analysis and the stats on 3 yos winning the BCC. I’ve looked at the Day 1 Juvies, haven’t considered Day 2 yet. I looked at the pps and then videos and they matched up, and I too picked Governor Sam and like La Cara and Scythian. Can you comment on longshot Abientot’s pedigree, she’s in the Juv. Fillies Turf? I think it’s a strong one.
Times that by 10 when handicapping the BC has elevated your articles into a book! Nonetheless, it’s always great reading. Thanks for the thoughts and insights.
Good Luck to you Steve and Thanks for all your work for us. Their is one thing I always do win, lose or draw. I always bring home Chinese Food!