Breeders’ Cup Classic Just a Guessing Game
As you get closer to delving into the Breeders’ Cup Classic past performances be prepared for so many questions it will send you into a state of total confusion.~ Steve Haskin
Breeders’ Cup Classic Just a Guessing Game
By Steve Haskin
Between now and the Breeders’ Cup Classic you’re going to hear more than once that there are no standouts, but it’s a good betting race. Wrong. In actuality it’s a terrible betting race. Yes it’s an interesting wide-open race, but in order for it to be a good betting race you have to have a fairly strong conviction based on your handicapping tools, having some idea who these horses are, how they are coming up to the race, and who stands out on the speed figures.
Do you use the Beyer, Brisnet or Equibase figures or Ragozin or Thoro-Graph? How are they going to help you when the two favorites are coming off 13-week and 10-week layoffs and the third and fourth choices are both coming off nine-week layoffs, as are the first two finishers of The Jockey Club Gold Cup?
Do you really have any idea what to make of the leading older horse, White Abarrio, who had been a nice solid up and down horse for Saffie Joseph Jr. his entire career and surely was not known for his brilliance and explosive victories? Two races after being turned over to Rick Dutrow, who is trying to restart his career following a 10-year suspension, White Abarrio looked like Flightline, crushing his field in the Whitney Stakes by more than six lengths at odds of 10-1. That was back on August 5, and instead of building on his brilliant form and being given a prep for the Classic, he wasn’t heard from until he shipped to Santa Anita in September to train for the Classic.
Could it be it was because a horse who was running between a “2” and “16” on Thoro-Graph the first two years of his career now winds up running a “negative-6” in the Whitney and Dutrow was forced to give him time off? To add to the confusion, after shipping to California, White Abarrio missed a scheduled workout. He has since worked.
As for the possible favorite Arcangelo there is no doubting his talent and the fantastic job his trainer Jena Antonucci has done with him, getting the lightly raced colt to win the Belmont Stakes and then defying the doubters by winning the Travers Stakes off an 11-week layoff. Now she will try to add the Breeders’ Cup Classic coming off a 10-week layoff. The question is can she continue to race her colt so sparingly and keep the magic going against a whole new group of opponents, several racing over their home track across the country? No one would be surprised if he kept his winning streak going, but is he worth the odds he’s going to be? After all, his two main opponents in the Travers, the favorite Forte and Kentucky Derby winner Mage, did virtually no running , as if they weren’t handling the track, and were uncharacteristically beaten eight and 13 lengths, respectively. And Arcangelo was being hard-ridden to hold off 12-1 shot Disarm by one length after opening a three-length lead at the eighth pole.
Arcangelo could very well be on the verge of stardom and a Horse of the Year title, but once again we are looking at this strictly from a betting standpoint and there seems to be enough questions regarding the two favorites. So how high would your confidence level be betting both at short odds in a big field?
Then we have 3-year-olds Arabian Knight and Geaux Rocket Ride, the one-two finishers of the Pacific Classic. Beating a weak group of California older horses is not the accomplishment one would normally think. That is reflected in the modest 101 Beyer figure by both horses to go along with the pedestrian final quarter of :26 1/5. When you go an opening half in :46 3/5 and wind up with a final time of 2:03 you have to have some doubts about the quality of the race and whether these are true mile and a quarter horses. Their “3” on Thoro-Graph didn’t flatter them either. Again, both horses no doubt are talented and will win their share of stakes, but are you confident betting them in the Breeders’ Cup Classic based on the Pacific Classic? The third-place finisher Slow Down Andy came back to beat another weak field in the Awesome Again Stakes, going wire to wire on a speed favoring track, and like the first two finishers of the Pacific Classic he earned only a 101 Beyer figure.
Now let’s go back east and take a look at Forte, who has had a star-crossed year. The favorite for the Kentucky Derby was a vet scratch the morning of the race due to a foot bruise, was then forced to miss the Preakness, but came back to run a strong second in the Belmont and win the Jim Dandy before running by far the worst race of his career in the Travers. Now he reportedly is dealing with a quarter crack. Good luck figuring out what to with him in the Classic if he even makes it.
Kentucky Derby winner Mage looked as if he was reaching his peak form with a strong second in the Haskell, but who knows what happened in the Travers when he was a no-show? The questions keep piling up.
Do you want even more confusion? You may have to deal with two Japanese invaders, the Dubai World Cup winner Ushba Tesoro and UAE Derby winner Derma Sotogake. As we know it’s always dangerous betting against Japanese horses these days. Could we also get the Saudi-trained Emblem Road, winner of last year’s Saudi Cup and third in this year’s Dubai World Cup?
OK, so far are you truly confident in any of the horses we’ve mentioned? Let’s go to The Jockey Club Gold Cup and the two horses separated by a nose, Bright Future, who two races back was beaten 43 lengths in the Brooklyn in his only other stakes appearance, and Proxy, a tough, hard-knocking 5-year-old who has won six of his 19 career starts, but only three of his last 11. The JC Gold Cup was just another on the list of weak fields for older horses this year, so it’s difficult to know what to make of it. The 103 Beyer was well below par for older Breeders’ Cup Classic horses in a Grade 1 race.
Now I’m going to surprise you. It would sound foolish to say a horse who lost eight straight races has no question marks. But Zandon has none, or very few. He may not be talented enough to win the Classic, but at least you know what you’re going to get, and with an impressive confidence builder in the Woodward Stakes to snap his losing streak it is safe to say that based on his overall resume he is the sturdiest, most consistent, and in many ways the classiest horse in the race over a period of time. This is a horse who looked like a major Derby contender winning the Blue Grass Stakes by daylight. He then went into a rut when it came to finding the winner’s circle. But his eight-race losing streak consisted of five seconds, two thirds, and a fourth, with six of those races Grade 1, including the Kentucky Derby, Travers, Met Mile, and Whitney. In addition, during his losing streak he finished ahead of White Abarrio, Cody’s Wish, Mo Donegal, and Cyberknife.
Looking at the Classic’s leading contenders, White Abarrio has three triple-digit Beyer figures in his career, Arcangelo and Geaux Rocket Ride have two, and Arabian Knight has one, as does Mage. The hard-knocking Proxy, with 19 career starts, has four in his last eight races. Zandon has seven triple-digit Beyers in his last eight starts and is the only horse coming off four straight negative Thoro-Graph numbers. The one race he didn’t reach a triple Beyer, the Cigar Mile, was the only time he ran on a sloppy track. His 106 in finishing second to Cody’s Wish in the Met Mile was the second fastest Beyer of all the Classic horses behind White Abarrio’s 110 in his freakish performance in the Whitney. The main reason I’m going into such detail about him is that he has proven his class over a period of time, is coming off a powerful victory, and he will be higher odds than just about every horse mentioned above.
From a non-handicapping standpoint, Zandon’s breeder, Airdrie Stud, is celebrating its 50th anniversary this year. Airdrie’s founder Brereton Jones, one of Kentucky’s most beloved figures, passed away last month at age 84. In 2010, Claiborne Farm won the BC Classic with Blame on its 100th anniversary.
So the bottom line is this year’s Classic could turn out to be an entertaining race, but from a handicapping standpoint it is a pure guessing game because of all the questions surrounding the participants.
Racing historian, author, and award-winning retired journalist for the Daily Racing Form and The Blood-Horse, Steve Haskin was inducted into the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame’s Media Roll of Honor in 2016. Known for his racing knowledge and insightful prose, he has been an exclusive contributor to Secretariat.com since 2020.
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This is the heartbreaking story of what happened to Ruffian after she fractured her sesamoids.
I couldn’t read that site, but I can tell you Ruffian was her own worst enemy. She thrashed about so much that her brace to stabilize her leg came off in recovery. Mr. Jenney then decided on euthanization. I was there.
Ooops. Mr. Janney.
That must have been an awful thing to witness.
I swore to myself that I would never watch another video or relive that tragic day. I have never forgotten that horrible day, nor will I ever.
She is my all time favorite filly. As a male I have cried much in my life, but I cried fateful day in 1975.
48 years ago, I remember it as yesterday.
Many blessings Lynda go to you for your tireless activity in the protection of horses.
There’s a good follow story on Echo Zulu on the drf website. According to Scott Blasi, Steve Asmussen’s top assistant, she’s resting comfortably in her stall at Santa Anita, has been sleeping a lot, and is able to get up and down with no problem. She’ll be transferred to Chino Valley Equine Clinic later this week to continue her recovery.
That is encouraging. How she handles this mentally will help her recovery.
White Abarrio works tomorrow….Ill be watching—Emily Ellingwood has had trouble pulling him up—thats a real good sign ….
Over 40 international entrants are expected this year …
Vegas Showgirl passed away this morning …dam of the great racemare Winx …
Thoroughbred Daily news now has reported on Echo Zulu’s operation. It went as well as could be expected, according to the owner’s spokesman. She will still not be out of the woods for the next four to six weeks, according to the surgeon. See article for details. Best of luck to her, always liked her a lot.
Echo Zulu came through the fetlock arthodesis surgery and is now officially retired.
Now she faces a long road to recovery.
This surgery was pioneered by Dr Larry Bramlage.
It is the same surgery that The Player had. This same surgery is done on horses with severe crippling arthritis.
Fractures of the sesamoid(s) is the most common fracture in Thoroughbred race horses. It is thought to be the result of tendon breakdown on the back of the leg.
Prayers that she fully recovers with no complications such as laminitis or an infection or restricted blood flow to the ankle.
Thanks for the update, Lynda. I’m glad she came through the surgery okay. But as you say, it’s a long road from here. Fingers crossed that she makes it all the way through.
Where did you read that she came through it fine, haven’t found anything online?
Did not say she came through it fine, only came through surgery. Saw X post about 5 hours ago from Valerie Embry, not sure who she is. In the last hour or so several X posts from TDN and other sites. She was headed back to the barn and came through as expected and in one comment as well as expected.
She does have a long recovery road ahead of her. One positive was the fractures did not break the skin so that does not rule out an infection but does make the outcome a little more favorable.
I think The Player had about 6 months recovery period before he returned to his farm.
I am sure she is getting the very best possible care.
Do not know the severity of the fractures as compared to Barbaro and The Player. If you recall Barbaro shattered the sesamoids in his hind leg.
So relieved that she made it through the first step OK. Prayers that she makes a full recovery and lives a long, happy life. Thanks for pursuing this, Lynda.
Has anyone heard how Echo Zulu is after surgery?
Looked all over and nothing.
Concerned!
The Bloodhorse says surgery was to be today. It may be too soon to tell. As I’m sure you know, she has a biaxial sesamoid fracture on her left front fetlock — meaning both sesamoids were broken.
Looks like Justify has produced a nice one…. City of Troy wins Dewhurst Stakes !!!
That’s right, they’ve been waxing lyrically about City of Troy for months and he has delivered every time, comparisons with Frankel already. Wait and see. Too exciting!!
Aidan O’brien very excited about this horse. He is very special, they don’t know were his bottom is… he never gets tired.
Yes, Downthestretch, the ‘lads’ would dearly like to win the English Triple Crown which was last won in 1970 by Nijinsky. Not to forget that Nijinsky won the Dewhurst in 1969. These are the things that keep you interested in horse racing. Champion racehorses.
After watching the replays of his 2 races he definitely has the mindset of his daddy. Wants to in front. He definitely could be something special !!! He has world class owners, trainer and jockey. They just have to keep him happy and healthy.
Presuming everything goes well over winter, I do hope they change their mind and give City of Troy a prep race before the 2,000 Guineas which Aidan O’Brien said they probably wouldn’t. The 2,000 Guineas is a very tough race, arguably, the toughest part of the Triple Crown and if you lose that race the dream hasn’t even started.
From what I have seen of this colt, he takes more after his dam than Justify.
Justify has conformation issues that in all probability contributed to his early retirement. He was very heavy on the forehand with a less than stellar shoulder. While his first racing crops are doing well, only time will tell if they will have sustainable careers.
This colt is very light on his feet and unlike Justify, his center of balance seems to be more in the center or barrel of the body.
As to comparisons to Frankel, could be, however I think it is a little early. Question is, will City of Troy hold up past 3 and race at 4 as Frankel did? Something as of now is an unknown…will these Justify progeny hold up in the long run.
Wishing the very best for Aiden and Coolmore with City of Troy. Hope they develop him to his fullest potential and not rush him off to an early retirement and stud duties.
There’s something happening here,
What it is ain’t exactly Horse Racing,
I think it’s time we stop, children,
Everybody look what’s going down—-
We’ve become Horse Breeding …
Echo Zulu….who scratched out of last year’s Acorn because of lameness…broke down working in tandem this morning, at Santa Anita….prayers she makes it, will be a long time recovery if she does …
Biaxial sesamoid fracture is serious. Prayers she has successful surgery and recovers so she can retire.
Super bummed to hear. She has exceptional speed. Let’s hope for the best for her recovery
Read it was closed fracture meaning skin not broken thus less chance of infection. That is the one positive.
Thank God it didn’t break the skin. Still prayers for her recovery…Echo was a speedy fillie, she needs to have a speedy recovery.
Bad things always happen on Friday the 13th!
True…about Friday 13th. The surgery will involve a plate with screws to stabilize the back of the leg. Her ankle will be locked in one position. It is somewhat new but it saves lives. Also same surgery is performed on horses with crippling arthritis in ankles.
I will stay positive that she will heal without complications such as the dreaded laminitis since it is the left fore and weight bearing.
I think The Player had a similar surgery.
Looked The Player up. It was the same injury he had. Calvin Borel was on board, felt something funny, pulled the colt up and held the legs until the horse ambulance arrived.
Just some bad luck lately for Winchell Thoroughbreds
Awful news. I hope they can save her.
Damn. Wasn’t this basically the injury/break to the bone (s) tha felled Ruffian?
Yes John it was.
Ruffian’s was compound.
Ruffian’s breakdown was a series of misfortunes.
See above link to Sports Illustrated article from several years ago.
Ace Impact who just ran one of the greatest races of my lifetime…retires Alabama Flightline…they cannot see they are ruining Horse Racing..
(ala)..
On the day Ace Impact retires…the headline is ” Curlin price goes up”….two otherworldly race horses swept away like yesterday’s news…but Curlin price went up, it’ll cost more…front page news…
This is why I do not get excited over any 3 year old colts or colts that only have a half dozen races including Flightline.
As Duncan Taylor commented recently regarding the Beholder/Curlin colt that sold for 4 million: one grade one win with this pedigree equals a 75 million dollar stud contract.
Give me the hard knocking colt that races beyond age 3, 4 and sometimes at age 5.
One reason I will be mostly cheering for Zandon in the BCC.
I’m with you, Lynda. I’ve often thought that if I were wealthy enough to breed racehorses, I wouldn’t breed my mare to any stallion that didn’t have at least 20 starts under his belt.
I’m hoping Hoppertunity does well at stud, even though he’s in a minor market.
arlingtonfan, I so agree. If I were in the Thoroughbred breeding business I would be looking for successful stallions who had stamina, were sustainable and had more than a half dozen starts.
If you are looking for a ‘wow’ moment in racing don’t miss the Dewhurst Stakes at Newmarket on Saturday for 2 year olds. City of Troy, by Justify out of Together Forever, is written about, and has performed in such lofty tones, that even a demolition of his opponents will be regarded a disappointment. Ha ha
There are quite a few other extremely talented colts that appear top class, so, will City of Troy prevail as expected or will the bubble burst under extended pressure? Not to be missed!!
As expected, City of Troy cantered through an easy Dewhurst Stakes win. Now we’ll have to wait until May next year to see if the expectations are fore filled.
Steve, Thanks for this early analogy of the Breeders Cup Classic (BCC). Yes, this years BCC is right now a Guessing Game on who will be ready for the classic. With many of the favorites skipping the usual BCC preps it will make it a little more difficult trying to sort out who will be ready for the big race. Jena has so far did everything right with Arcangelo an I was one of the skeptics for the way she brought him up for the Travers but she proved me wrong. Arabian Knight I was not sure he could go 1 1/4 miles but he did and GRR ran a credible 2nd. I know you were critical of the time but they left the rest of the field in their dust. White Abarrio, well you just don’t know which horse will show up when he runs. I actually thought Proxy ran a strong race in the JGC and ran a little closer to the front than normal and still finished strong. As far Forte he as far as I am concerned receive 2 of the worst rides this year in the Belmont and Travers as those 2 races brought back memories of Donald Pierce on Flying Paster especially in the Travers. were it seems like Irad did not know were to put him in the race. As far a Zandon he ran very good race in the Woodward and finished strong. Again like you pointed not a strong field but finished strong with a respectable time. But again he did not face likes of the previously mentioned. Big question has he finally figured it out?
Who do I like ? Well right now I like Arcangelo who has done nothing wrong and Jena seems to get the best out of him. His running style fits the race. Next would be AK and GRR. Both have great trainers and are working nicely up to the race. My next 4 are Defunded, Proxy , White Abarrio, and Zandon in no particular order. The race has to set up just right for each to have a chance. As far as the rest of the field the Japanese horses could be interesting but like in the past ….will they really be a factor ??? Previously they showed high hopes but did not fire. They are the big puzzle in this race.
One big thing though Steve you neglected to point out in your article is what will Santa Anita do with their racing surface??? Will they leave it the way it is running now fast and predictable or will they soften it up on the big day? Matthew W has previously stated there is 2 big sand piles now sitting in the parking lot. Will that be incorporated into the main track to slow it down which can change the complexion of this whole race. Which horse can handle the track best than??? Stay Tune !!! And Matthew W please keep us informed on those sand piles.
Steve, Love articles like this and keep them coming. As always nothing but the best for you !!! Have a Great Week.
There is one certainty – the weather is predicted to be picture perfect. Yes, the piles of sand is a concern. Matthew, you are our eyes on this matter.
Unfortunately not, I rarely get out to Santa Anita anymore..
Even so, Matthew, you are much closer to Santa Anita than I am, and no doubt Downthestretch is as well. Ha ha Do you think Santa Anita will use the sand as a safety precaution? The last thing racing in the USA needs now are catastrophic injuries during the running of the Breeders’ Cup races which are viewed around the world.
I saw the sand a year ago …
Am looking at three: Arabian Knight…Zandon…Ushba Tesoro….I’m not impressed with this 3yo crop….’Tesoro is 6 for 6 at10 furlongs on dirt …
Same, moreover, I prefer the Californian 3 year olds over the East coast 3 year olds as well. White Abarrio is the mystery though, if he replicates the ‘Whitney wipeout’ they are all running for place.
Yes, ant that’s why I think White Abarrio will be the ML favorite…he ran that race….for me he’s “all or nothing”, I’m not using him….
My top 2yr. olds in preferential order:
1) Prince of Monaco, 1st, G1, Del Mar Futurity
2) Muth, 1st, G1, American Pharoah Stakes
3) Timberlake, 1st, G1, Champagne Stakes
4) Locked, 1st, G1, Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity
5) The Wine Steward, 2nd, G1, Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity
6) Nutella Fella, 1st, G1 Hopeful Stakes (beat Timberlake, sold for $12,000 at auction)
7) Bentornato, 1st, Dr. Fager Stakes
8) Pirate, 3rd, G1 Hopeful Stakes
9) Endlessly, G3, Zuma Beach Stakes (Turf), could try dirt down the road.
10) General Partner, 2nd, Champagne Stakes, (set fast fractions, tired late)
Thanks for dissipating some of the fog surrounding the race. It’s a crap shoot like the Derby is developing into. Like your thoughts !
I am sorry to change the subject, but I am most looking forward to seeing Yuugiri in the Breeders Cup. She will be her trainer’s, Rodolphe Brisset, first horse eligible to run in the Breeders Cup. Yuugiri was bred in Kentucky by her Japanese owners, Sekie and Tsunebumi Yoshihara. She and her dam were bred in Kentucky by her owners. Her sire is Shackleford and her dam, Yuzuru, is by Medaglia d’ Oro. In her previous race she learned to rate. under jockey Flavien Pratt.
I am so happy for Rodolphe Brisset, who is an excellent horseman. I wonder if his mother, who was severely injured in the Lilac fire in California, is working for her son now. Steve Haskin, this would be a wonderful story for someone to cover.
Talk about an international horse!! What a story!!
PS check out her last race at the Thorough Bred Club of America at Keeneland. She prevailed over Wicked Halo by a nose.
Rudy is a great guy. I’ve known him since he was assistant to Bill Mott. I wissh him well
Terri, I too love this filly. Wishing her, Rodolphe and the Yoshiharas the best of luck!!
Steve, for all the reasons you have mentioned above, along with a fillip for Upstart as a sire, let’s hope for a Zandon win in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. However, I fear there are three horses that could inevitably prevent this from happening: White Abarrio, if he can replicate the same brilliance over 10f as was seen in the Whitney Stakes; Proxy, should he replicate the same performances in the 10f Jockey Club Gold Cup but more so in the Santa Anita Handicap earlier this year; and Defunded, who appears to be be getting back into form with a decent performance in the Awesome Again Stakes. Noting that Defunded won the 10f Hollywood Gold Cup at Santa Anita.
Not knowing the full field or post positions you are only guessing but with Defunded and Proxy at least they have experience and consistency at the distance and the track which seems extremely desirable in a race that appears wide open.
Thanks again, Steve, for this intriguing article as the build up continues toward the Breeders’ Cup races at Santa Anita. Not to forget the QIPCO British Champions Day on Saturday 21st October 2023 at Ascot Racecourse. Many of the results here will impact on which runners will attend the Breeders’ Cup races. Not to be missed.
Surprised the Euros would come back in only 2 weeks.
Yes Steve, I was surprised but I guess if some underperform they have the option to try again in the Breeders’ Cup races. Noting that the ground would probably be quite soft at Ascot which will not be to the liking of some runners while the ground at Santa Anita will be good at least.
True and theyve done it before
Steve, the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes mile race is star studded with the best 3 year olds of both gender involved, Paddlington and Tahiyra, along with Inspiral and Nashwa the best older milers as well.
Should any of these stars falter at Ascot it wouldn’t be surprising to see them enter the Breeders’ Cup Mile or Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf. They may just come anyway!! Exciting +
If my memory serves Steve wasn’t Smile Happy & Zandon your 2 top Derby Trail horses last year. So you liked Zandon for awhile now. He was my Derby last year. Regardless, you make great sense with your analysis. Western based horses going east & eastern based horses coming west. It is an age old question, how will they perform on a different track surface.
Weathere is also a factor. November can be very warm in California having lived the first 40 years of my life there. Great thoroughbreds that have come west performed very well. Speaking of Spectacular Bid, Damascus, Dr. Fager & Buckpasser. Of course these horses were legends. Euro’s & eastern horses have performed well on the turf at Santa Anita through the years.
I wouldn’t touch the Japanese horses (here we go again). Not until horses from Japan shine on our soil I believe its best leave them alone. Maybe this is the year that we get another major longshot to win the Classic. It sure wouldn’t surprise me.
Right now I like Arcangelo. He proved he could win on a long layoff (Belmont Stakes) & I believe Jenna knows what she is doing. Zandon will definitely be in my exotics.
Great read Steve, thank you for posting.
Yees Deacon tose were my Derby horses. Zandon 1, Epicenter 2, Smile Happy 3 my final 1.2.3. Vino Rosso was my No. 1 so hoping for a repeat.
Vin Rosso did well later, especialy in the BC Classic. Great selection by you……… I remember it well!!
Even though they did not impress with a 101 in the Pacific Classic, shouldn’t Geaux Rocket Ride and Arabian Knight move forward? They are still lightly raced comparatively. AR also had a 101 on his debut right?
I’m with MS. Blacktype and ready to start hearing about the 2 year olds, too.
They better move forward. Thats wat theyre supposed to do this time of year, eespecially off ssuch a mediocre at best race. But everyone in the race should also move forward.
Thanks Steve for your analysis for the upcoming BC Classic at Santa Anita. But I also heard similiar comments about the ‘weak’ group of California horses that ran in the PC Classic from Andy Sterling Saturday on Fox. I respectfully disagree…respectfully, that is. In the recent PC Classic race you had the Haskell Champion, a previous PC Classic winner, a Hollywood Gold Cup Champion, a Santa Anita Handicap Champion, two different Awesome Again Champions, two different Californian Stakes Champions, a San Diego Handicap winner, a Cougar II Stakes winner, the Los Alamitos Futurity winner, and the winner of the Sunland Park Derby and Del Mar Derby.
Be that as it may, I do agree with you on some questions regarding the participants.
With that in mind and if everything is almost equal I will defer to the home field advantage. In basketball and football this advantage is somewhere in the range of 3 points. I’m including the combination of not only the horse but the combination of jockey, trainer and even owner….which one I don’t know yet.
I know what the horses looked like going into the race. Someone had to win those races.They were all poor fields. I am going strictly by the race itself. It was just plain slow on all counts. And I loved GRR’s performance in thee Haskell and was expecting more from him. I favor him over Arabian Knight and still think he is going to be a major star asuming they keep him in training,
Steve, I love how you arrived at Zandon as your pick for the Classic. He is everything you say — a talented, hard-knocking and classy horse and he and Archangelo are the logical choices to win. That said, this may be the year a Japanese horse breaks through in America’s biggest race. Can’t wait to hear your thoughts on the two year olds, but maybe you are feeling meh about them?
No the 2 years olds I saw over the weekend looked very good. I,m looking forward to the Juvenile. Saw several Derby hoses for sure,
Glad to hear that. The one that most impressed me was Booth in the last race on Saturday at Keeneland. It was his first race and he closed from far back to win it. The Beyer (95) came back higher than that of any of the 2YO stakes that day. He’s trained by Steve Asmussen, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Steve threw him into the mix in the BC Juvenile.
Booth won wire to wire and he is a son of sprinter Mitole.
Great article Steve! Thanks for the info!
Is there any chance one day you could do a piece od the different types of Speed figures? Or am I just the only that doesn’t understand them.
Thanks Teri. I dont even understand them other than the basic concpt of Thoro Graph but it goes a lot deeper than that/
Practical Move is being pre-entered in the Classic and Dirt Mile….I think they may go for the Classic….
I’m with you on Zandon ….
One easy race in 7 months puts him on the question mark list
Arabian Knight ran a deceptively good PAC Classic….I was there, and Geaux Rocket Ride was dappled, and Sat a perfect trip— Arabian Knight turned back Slow Down Andy….fought off GRR and was pulling away on the gallop out he WANTS to beat you..
Zandon and Archangelo for me but cannot rule out the two Japanese colts.
This is all a learning experience for Japan. Eventually it will all come together for them and this may the race.
Forte is iffy, the quarter crack is troubling. Hope Pletcher does not push the colt to race on a patched up hoof.
Great analysis! Thank you.
Thanks. Pletcer has Bright Future for same owners so no reason to push Forte. I’d love to see him race at 4.
Same here for Forte. Let that quarter crack grow out and bring him back at 4.
Off topic side note, Chrome is now number 5 on Japan’s first racing crop sire’s list.
Thanks so much! I enjoyed the article. While I’m leaning in the direction of Arcangelo, it certainly appears to be wide-open this year. Zandon is one of those hard-triers you can’t help but root for and he definitely improved his stock in the Woodward, but Beyer rating or not that was barely a G3 field and until I see him beat better quality horses, I remain skeptical. The lack of a clear cut favorite makes it interesting and doesn’t put me off, but then I usually refrain from betting on the BC races and just enjoy watching so many talented horses compete.
How many of the fields for olderr horses ttis year were not grade 3 fields? Not many great 3yo fields either.
Zandon was my Derby pick last year. I didn’t realize how many triple-digit Beyers he had! Hmmm. I’ll have to keep him on my list of Classic contenders to consider.
Succinct and accurate analysis. The Classic is everybody’s to lose this year with its field of middling-good horses and no standouts. Sigh.
Makes you wonder if its better to have this or a Flighttline
I’ll answer that ….it’s better to have Flightline, the poster boy for the sport’s downfall…..
Not going to lie. I will only be watching, not betting, but will be hootin’ and hollerin’ for Arcangelo and Zandon.