Breeders’ Cup Classic: Three Potential Live Overlays
There so many questions surrounding the Breeders’ Cup Classic it’s difficult deciding whether to lean toward the top U.S. 3-year-olds, the U.S. older horses, the Japanese, or the pride of Europe – City of Troy. We’re not here to guide you or pick a winner, but to pass on some theories and stats that could reveal three classy horses who can compete with anyone and should go off at odds much higher than they should be. On Thursday, we’ll be posting our select handicapping analysis with more longshots to keep an eye on. ~ Steve Haskin
Breeders’ Cup Classic: Three Potential Live Overlays
By Steve Haskin
If you are willing to look past the favorites and try to find serious contenders for the Breeders’ Cup Classic at attractive odds, then here are three of them and the reasons why they should not be ignored.
NEWGATE
You don’t often get Bob Baffert overlays, but this colt surely will be overlooked in the betting. He has had an unusual career, coming along in arguably the deepest crop of Baffert’s career, with eight solid stakes winners and two-stakes placed horses. In fact, in Newgate’s first six starts of his career he ran against eight stablemates, finishing first, second, and third twice, first and second twice, and first, second, and fourth once. Two of the horses he faced were Cave Rock, winner of the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity and American Pharoah Stakes and runner-up in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile; and Havnameltdown, winner of the Bob Hope and San Vicente Stakes, both considered among the fastest horses of their generation. He also finished ahead of National Treasure, eventual winner of the Preakness, Met Mile, and Pegasus World Cup.
Other Baffert horses from that crop include Mr Fisk, winner of the Hollywood Gold Cup, Californian Stakes, and Native Diver Stakes; Reincarnate, winner of the Sham Stakes and Los Alamitos Derby; Arabian Lion winner of the Sir Barton Stakes, and three-time stakes winner Speed Boat Beach, another of that crop’s fastest horses.
Newgate’s early races included a victory in the Robert Lewis Stakes, second-place finishes in the Sham and Bob Hope Stakes, and a fourth behind Cave Rock in the Del Mar Futurity, in which he chased blazing fractions of :21 2/5 and :43 3/5. He also battled for the lead with Havnameltdown in :44 1/5 in the Bob Hope Stakes, finishing second, beaten 1 ¼ lengths; and won his career debut by 3 ½ lengths going 5 ½ furlongs in 1:03 4/5, pressing fractions of :21 3/5 and :44 4/5.
So we know he gained his early education battling an army of fast, top-class stablemates, and we know he has sprinting speed at short distances, yet was able to win the mile and a quarter Santa Anita Handicap against the formidable South American invader Subsanador, as well as Jockey Club Gold Cup winner Highland Falls and Pacific Classic winner Mixto, both of whom were also pre-entered in the Breeders’ Cup Classic.
Newgate, left, defeats Subsanador by a head in the March 3, 2024 Santa Anita Handicap.
Some questioned the time of 2:03 2/3 in the Big Cap, but it was over a deep track. In the San Felipe Stakes two races earlier they ran the 1 1/16 miles in 1:44 2/5, which was the slowest time for the race in the past 30 years.
After the Big Cap, Baffert sent him to Dubai for the Dubai World Cup, which not only was a fluky run race won wire-to-wire by 8 ¾ lengths over BC Classic starters Ushba Tesoro, winner of the previous year’s World Cup, and Saudi Cup winner Senor Buscador, but Newgate never ran a lick. Baffert said he just didn’t fire and was not the same horse after the race. “He never picked up the bit and wasn’t a happy horse afterward, so I decided to give him some time off.”
Newgate returned after a six-month layoff and ran a sensational race in the Grade 1 California Crown, beaten a head by Subsanador and National Treasure in a three-horse blanket finish. He had to cover so much more ground than the winner he earned a negative-2 ¼ Thoro-Graph number, more than a full point faster Subsanador, and equaled fastest final Classic prep of all the other pre-entered horses.
He had been on a terrific Thoro-Graph pattern before Dubai, running three consecutive “3’s” before pairing up “2’s” and then running a career-best “1” in the Big Cap followed by that huge number in the California Crown.
In his most recent work he just toyed with San Felipe winner Imagination, going five furlongs in a swift :59 1/5 and then drawing well clear on the gallop-out.
So we know he has natural sprint speed. We know he likes a fight, winning two stakes by a neck and a head and losing three stakes by a head, a neck, and a half-length. We know he has a perfect stalking style of running. We know he is in the best form of his life, coming off a career-best Thoro-Graph and Beyer figure. We know he’s been razor sharp in his works. And we know he will relish a mile and a quarter, having won the Big Cap and having a pedigree with four Triple Crown winners (Secretariat, Seattle Slew, and Affirmed in the U.S, and Nijinsky in England), and with both his maternal great-grandsires having won the Belmont Stakes.
He also is stakes-placed at Del Mar and gets Frankie Dettori back, who has been on him for both his stakes wins and his two close second-place finishes.
Newgate has impressed everyone who has ever been around him. Baffert said, “He is so beautiful, just a grand-looking horse.” Eddie Woods, who broke and trained him, called him a “Big beautiful classy-acting colt who was always a beautiful mover. The riders loved him. We wish they were all like him.”
Is he good enough to win the Classic? He certainly has the credentials and the trainer and jockey, and will likely be ignored in the betting. But there are so many question marks in this year’s race, who really knows what’s going to happen. And with a full field of 14 we have to wait for the post positions. We’re just getting a head start in mentioning potential overlays you can play in the exotics or even to win. And what better way to start than with a horse trained by Bob Baffert. That’s one store where you rarely will find any bargains, so this is your one shot to grab one while you can.
ARTHUR’S RIDE
This is a horse who went from the dashing white wonder of the Whitney to a gray ghostly figure fading in the distance in The Jockey Club Gold Cup. How can a horse who ran a 110 Beyer come back a month later with a 91? How can his Thoro-Graph number go from a “negative-2 ¾” to a plus “4?” Did he simply lose his form for no reason?
When contacted about this sudden reversal of form, his trainer Bill Mott, who can say a lot in few words if you know how to interpret them, responded, “All good here.” Breaking that down, you have to pay close attention to the words all and good. When Mott says all good, it means all good, with the key word being good. So let’s break that statement down — the horse is doing good and Mott is good about running him in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, and that is good enough for me.
But we’ll go even deeper than that. How can you forgive a 4-5 shot who went into reverse through a final quarter in a sloth-like 27 1/5? Actually, it is because of that trotting horse final quarter and the fact that both the big favorite and the 2-1 second choice Tapit Trice both ran flat races, finishing out of the money, that I am willing to toss that race, especially since the convincing winner Highland Falls was soundly beaten by Tapit Trice in his previous start and the third-place finisher Disarm was soundly beaten by Arthur’s Ride in his previous start. All that adds up to is a race I am willing to dismiss and look at what I know Arthur’s Ride is capable of.
And I’m not even talking about his Whitney victory, in which he was able to wire his field and win comfortably after setting stiff fractions of :46 3/5 and 1:10 1/5. What makes him dangerous is that he is a frontrunner with good early speed who can also close.
Arthur’s Ride wins the Grade 1 Whitney Stakes at Saratoga Race Course.
So forget the Whitney for a second. If he runs back to his spectacular allowance victory at Saratoga on June 7 I don’t know f there is a horse who can catch him. Going 1 ¼ miles, he drew off to a 12 ¾-length victory eased up with a final quarter in an unreal :24 flat. And his time was an equally sensational 2:00 4/5. Only two Travers winners in the past 45 years have run a faster 10 furlongs, and both of them – Arrogate and Epicenter – were named Champion 3-Year-Old. In addition, his “negative-4 ¼” Thoro-Graph number has blown the proverbial doors off anything this field has run, with Fierceness and Next the only ones to come remotely close.
In his first start this year, he won a one-mile allowance race at Gulfstream Park by 7 ½ lengths in a sharp 1:35 3/5, and he did it coming off an 11-month layoff.
Frankly, I don’t know what this horse is capable of. But I do know he can easily carry his speed 1 ¼ miles, especially considering his sire Tapit has sired four Belmont winners and his broodmare sire Point Given won the Belmont by 12 ¼ lengths.
Because of hs last start, all those fast stalkers in the field might just leave him alone on the lead. Then we will know for sure if The Jockey Club Gold Cup was indeed a fluke. If it was, watch out.
SIERRA LEONE
The reason I believe he is going to go off at enticing odds after being the favorite in five of his last six starts is that a) many have finally given up on him after four straight defeats b) many now agree with a well-known trainer who called him a plodder c) many feel he is going to get lost in a 14-horse field on a mostly speed-favoring track d) almost everyone believes the short stretch at Del Mar is going to put him at a huge disadvantage e) and finally are we sure he has gotten over his tendency to lug in and cost himself races?
So with all that said, why should anyone bet him in what looks to be the most competitive Breeders’ Cup Classic in years with arguably the most formidable foreign contingent since we had Galileo and Sakhee in 2001?
The best reason I can give is that when they hit the top of the stretch he still is an explosion waiting to happen and one of these days he is going to blow everyone away in the final furlong.
But how is he going to get through a 14-horse field, you ask? Well, guess what? The 14-horse field actually moves him up in my opinion. It’s obvious he needs a contentious pace and you usually are always going to get that in a big field, especially one with as many stalkers as there are in this year’s Classic. The five best races Sierra Leone has ever run are the five races in which there was a field of 10 horses or more. He won two, the Risen Star and Blue Grass, with 12 and 10 horse fields; many believe he should have won the Kentucky Derby, getting beat a nose, in a 20-horse field; he ran a spectacular race to be beaten a nose in the Remsen in a 10-horse field; and he overcame a troubled start and getting slammed into turning for home to finish a fast-closing third, beaten 1 ½ lengths, in the Belmont Stakes at Saratoga in a 10-horse field.
3-year-old colt Sierra Leone captures the 2024 Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland.
His last two starts at Saratoga, in which he closed well but never looked like a winner, were in races with six and eight horse fields.
The key word there is Saratoga. That is the only track on which he has failed to win or be beaten a nose in his seven stakes appearances. I have seen a number of horses who didn’t handle the Saratoga track the way they handled other tracks.
Sierra Leone’s trainer Chad Brown said the colt ran three solid races there, but never ran quite the same over that track. He added that although his Beyer figures were his three fastest races he’s ever run, visually he just didn’t put in a big enough run to be a threat to win, and he is looking forward to getting him away from Saratoga. He realizes Del Mar can be a tricky surface that favors speed with that short stretch, but not having run there he may very well love the track, and if the pace sets for him as it should, he expects him to run his “A” race. He confirmed the colt is doing “super” right now working over the Belmont training track, and that is all you can ask, at least until we see the post positions.
Speaking of speed figures, in his seven stakes appearances his Beyer and Thoro-Graph numbers have never regressed. He has improved steadily every race, and although he needs to improve again by at least a point or two on Thoro-Graph, it is important to note that this is the first freshening he’s had all year, coming off a two-month layoff, and if any horse needed to refresh the batteries it was him. In the 10 months since his debut he has run in eight of those months, including April, May, June, July, and August, during which he has run in four Grade 1 stakes and one Grade 2. This is a horse who has never sprinted, starting his career at a testing flat mile, so who knows what a fresh Sierra Leone is capable of, especially if he’s used the time off to let his mind catch up to that big body of his . If you haven’t lost faith in him you could be rewarded generously.
CLASSIC TIDBITS
*Fierceness is the only horse to come into the Classic off two straight negative Thoro-Graph numbers…except one, who is coming into the race off five straight negative numbers. Can it be that the perceived “slow marathon horse” based on his time and fractions — the fascinating, captivating, and intriguing Next — is actually among the fastest horses in the race, despite running sloth-like six-furlong fractions between 1:13 2/5 and 1:16 3/5 in his last 10 starts and not having run shorter than 1 ½ miles since being switched to the dirt and turning into Superman? Not only has he run five straight negative Thoro-Graph numbers, they are negative-2 ½, 3, and 3, making him consistently the fastest horse in the field, which defies logic. And he’s done it winning his last nine races by an average margin of 13 lengths. If you can make sense out of any of that, let me know.
Long distance specialist Next victorious in the 1 3/4 mile Birdstone Stakes.
Oh, yes, Next’s maternal grandsire Awesome Again and great-grandsire Alphabet Soup both won the Breeders’ Cup Classic and in doing so defeated Hall of Famers Cigar, Skip Away, and Silver Charm. I admit I am clueless what to make of this “White Wonder,” whose home is Turfway Park and who trains over a synthetic surface, and what to expect from him in the Classic. However you feel about him, sit back, ogle over the 7-year-old gray gelding’s stunning looks, and just enjoy the show.
*One of my favorite aspects of this year’s Classic is something you rarely see, if ever. In the 14 weeks of the Derby Rankings, only two horses — Fierceness and Sierra Leone — were ranked No. 1 and both of them made it to the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Fierceness was ranked on top eight weeks and Sierra Leone six weeks, and neither one was ranked worse than third at any time. Fierceness had one second-place ranking and five thirds, and Sierra Leone was ranked second five times and third three times. You have to be impressed with two horses who can hold that kind of form from the Derby trail starting in January to the Breeders’ Cup Classic, with each having a big chance to win. And speaking of the Derby Rankings, in Week 11 the top three were: 1–Fierceness, 2–Sierra Leoone, 3–Forever Young. That could easily be your trifecta box in the Classic.
Photos courtesy of Benoit Photo, Adam Coglianese, Grace Clark Sweet, and New York Racing Association.
Racing historian, author, and award-winning retired journalist for the Daily Racing Form and The Blood-Horse, Steve Haskin was inducted into the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame’s Media Roll of Honor in 2016. Known for his racing knowledge and insightful prose, he has been an exclusive contributor to Secretariat.com since 2020.
Right again, sir, with Sierra Leone!
I am still puzzled as to why a disclosure of what one considered to be negatives regarding particular horses, is considered engaging in deliberate disagreement and an act of ill will.
Below a supporter in a cat out of the bag disclosure, specified that Derma follows closely behind Forever Young his first choice to win the BCC.
I always view entrants in major races from a historic perspective where such information is available. It’s an approach used to determine if certain entrants can defy historic trends.
Derma finished 2nd in the 2023 renewal of the BCC. Very few on the board finisher in the BCC in one year return to win the race the next. Stating that fact doesn’t amount to ill will.
Subject to correction Alysheba is the only 2nd place finisher in the BCC that returned to win it in the succeeding year. Would it be reasonable to compare the record of 2nd place finishers in a BCC attempting to win the following year? To some this might be meaningless, as the horses are different. That’s a reasonable assertion. But to some the comparison could be used as a guide and be informative to the supporters of Derma.
In the 12 months leading up to his 2nd BCC, Alysheba won 6 of 8 start with a 4th place finish being his worst. In the 12 months between the 2023 and 2024 BCC, Derma has made 3 starts and has finished 5th, 6th & 5th. His record compared to that of Alysheba suggests, he isn’t a win candidate for his category of a previous starter in the BCC.
Can Derma win with his unimpressive form? To determine same, I would compare his form to that of BCC winners who entered with losses in their 3 starts leading up to the BCC.
Arcangues the longest shot winner of the BCC entered with a last 3 race record of 1st ,6th & 4th
Concern the 1994 BCC winner entered the race with 3 consecutive losses as follows – 2nd, 3rd & 2nd
Cat Thief the 1999 BCC winner entered with a last 3 race record of 2nd, 7th & 3rd
Drosselmeyer the 2011 BCC winner entered with a last 3 race record of 2nd, 7th & 2nd
No entrant with a last 3 race record as dismal as Derma’s has ever won the BCC. The Japanese invader has a lot of historic hurdles to overcome to emerge the winner.
Highlighting the above cannot be viewed as some form of deliberate disagreement. But rather the disclosure of information either previously not known or considered.
Further, this cannot be viewed as an act of ill will. If reveling information that might be viewed as negative is an act of ill will. Then all who support this space would be guilty of same.
Posting caricature that characterizes one in a grotesque manner, based on misguided and ill-conceived conclusions exposes the evil within.
I have never been a fan of Fierceness, and I am no expert on horses’ appearance, but I happened to see him galloping this morning, and he looks freakishly good.
Interesting! I’ve always thought Fiefceness was good looking, but neither he nor Sierra ever truly won me over. His form of late has been way more convincing!
I have watched some of the videos of the BC workouts and a few likely starters have captured my attention.
Emily Upjhon has the physical appearance of a male. She looked physically imposing an if she runs to her looks a victory is assured.
Next is a very good-looking horse. He appears fit and well and I can understand the reason he is getting quiet support. Is he fast enough?
If there is such a thing as a winning coat, it is what Highland Falls coat portrays. his coat was glistening chestnut.
Federal Judge has the hind end of a Clydesdale. The power that said hind must generate makes him a live Cox entrant.
Saudi Crown appears a bit heavy. But it was the same impression I had of Knicks Go who wired the BCC field. That Cox entrant will be tough should break running.
I like that Emily Upjohn gets Frankie Dettori, who knew her way back when, for the ride.
I have been watching Breakfast at the Breeders Cup all week and to be honest with everybody here I haven’t seen a horse I didn’t look good. With that said Fierceness does look well muscled and City of Troy looks sleek and smooth. Forever Young cool as a cucumber. “All horses” look to be taking to the racing surface well except for one filly and her name is “Believing” very hesitant on the track only wanted to go backwards and not forward. All I can say ( other than a dead heat ) there can only be one winner in a race.
Greetings from Solana Beach! Spent the last 3 days hitting the breweries in San Diego and hitting the Bris even harder but I can tell you that this place is so beautiful and so much fun I highly recommend it to anyone.
I’ll let my first cat out of the bag and say that I believe Japan will win the Classic with either Forever Young, my first choice or Derma. Both are Shin Believe in the
Juvenile and Ecoro Sieg in the Juv Turf Sprint.
Well that didn’t come our right. Both are primed for this race is what I tried to say and believe two others from Japan will run well. Shin Believe and Ecoro Sieg. Check back later.
Greetings to you El Kabong from the Southern Ocean or there abouts. Best of luck, am you may be right. Shin Believe could be a surprise, gorgeous horse.
Like the way he responded at first ask in deep water against proven. Failed to mention American Bikini who should do well also. Japan is going to be carrying off some hardware this year.
Agree and I think Awesome Result might be a Polar Bear to face the Grizzly.
Just sent in my final analysis of both days, so keep an eye out later today.
Can’t wait to read it!
Can’t wait to see it Steve and glad to be back here for some great conversation about ponies. Took the week off, flew down to Del Mar to get away and focus on racing for a while. It has been a while for me but it’s good to be back with this community for a fun event.
Missed you. Welcome back.
Winners of the BCC that made either their last start or 2nd to last at Saratoga.
2023 -White Abarrio – Last out start 1st Whitney
2021 – Knicks Go – 2nd to last start 1st Whitney
2019 – Vino Roso – 2nd to last start 3rd Whitney
2017 – Gun Runner – Last 2 starts 1st Whitney & Woodward
2016 – Arrogate – Last out start – 1st Travers
2015 – American Pharaoh – Last out start – 2nd Travers
2014 – Bayern – 2nd to last start – 10th Travers
2013 – Mucho Macho Man – 2ndto last start -3rd Whitney
2012 – Fort Larned – 2nd to last start – 1st Wintney
2011 – Drosselmeyer – 2nd to last -7th Sword Dancer
2010 – Blame – 2nd to last start – 1st Whitney
2006 – Invasor – last out start – 1st Whitney
2005 – Saint Liam – 2nd to last start – 2nd Whitney
A whapping 13 of the last 20 BCC winners made either their last or 2nd to last start ahead of the BCC at Saratoga. Would it be reasonable to state that success in the BCC is enhanced with a stop Saratoga?
Well, the above might just be another of my engagement in highlighting meaningless bit of information. But for what it’s worth, two overlays featured in this blog made their last two start at Saratoga. Further, 3 not featured as overlays also made either 1 or 2 of their last start at Saratoga.
Given that Saratoga is featured in the PP of so many BCC winners, handicappers noting this connection find themselves in a dilemma. Six entrants in the BCC have a Saratoga race in the form line.
Fierceness – 1st Jim Dandy/ Travers (Equibase 110)
Sierra Leone – 2nd Belmont/Jim Dandy & 3rd Travers (Equibase 108)
Arthur’s Ride – 1st Allowance/Whitney & 5th JCGC (Equibase 115)
Pyrenees – 2nd JCGC ( Equibase (108)
Tapit Trice – 4th JCGC; 1st Woodward (Equibase 110)
Highland Falls – 1st JCGC (Equibase – 113)
Is it a coincidence that 5 of the 6 above occupy post positions 8 to 12. Highland Falls is separated from the contingent.
Given the historic trend highlighted above. The winner of the 2024 BCC is likely to emerge from one of the 6 above. Who will it be?
Could the member of the contingent with the best form over 7 starts, provide a SHOCKER! That would be nice for the payouts. I will be taking a plunge down the falls.
There have been six (6) BCC winners BASED in California in the last ten (10) years.
So, Mixto, Senor Buscador and Newgate are statistically 60% favored to win …
Sometimes playing with statistics is jus the certainty of uncertain outcomes.
The far east (Europe and Japan in this case) is more than able to open a new stats now…!
Undecided between FY, SL, or Next.
For the BC Classic, I like the “elder stateshorse ” Ushba Tesoro. At the age of 7, he still has that “run n gun” in him.
Seeing him with the outriders horses as the stirrup incident wrapped up really showed what a big, powerful, mature dude he is. Really good looking horse! He has a season to back up your pick, even if he’s been picked off at the wire.
Dodgers win the WS with all kinds of connections to Japan – maybe fate has Japan’s name written on the Breeders’ Cup, too.
For those who can’t stand racing withdrawal symptoms setting in after the November 1 Breeders’ Cup races conclude and the November 2 Breeders’ Cup races are too far away there are 3 Group 1 races at Flemington and Rosehill has the 10 million Golden Eagle Stakes among other races to fill the need. Great racing day, in Australia.
Steve, it was fun watching you on “The Owner’s Box Episode 150”. Your memory is as good as ever. Fun listening.
I was a great episode indeed…
As an avid reader of Steve’s articles for years I was really surprised that Michelle Yu and Billy Koch looked like they never heard the stories the master writer has covered over the years… It could be the hosts were trying to infuse some excitement for the benefit of the audience … so it was just an scripted zest by the interviewers…
We will have Steve if they actually did not know about any of the salient stories he recounted.
*It was a great episode of “The Owner’s Box” with Steve indeed… I loved the Steve’s intro about feeling like an Owner…!
I thought this was going to be audio only, but when my mug showed up on my laptop I was not happy. It was bette on my cell phone after my laptop shut off, but I am never comfortable going visual. But thanks fo everyone’s kind words.
Nelson, I tend to agree with your second assumption to add more excitement for the benefit of the listening audience.
Davids, thanks for the tip on the video! Will watch it tomorrow.
You’ll really enjoy the show, Ms Blacktype.
Hi Steve,
Great insight as always. I agree with Highland Falls. Will play a box with Forever Young and Fierceness. Long shot pick Derma Sogotake. He came through for me last year. Even though he has no form have the same hunch he might do something. Good Luck to all.
Best,
Hammer
Derma gets blinkers and looks good in the morning. You never know.
I’m looking closely at Arthur’s Ride, Remake and Full Serrano….just awful, that rain is coming! Del Mar? It has not rained here in six months, Breeders Cup likes it out here because they abhor rainy days—and THIS!
Matthew, I can’t remember a wet day at Del Mar. Do you know how the track surface drains etc? You would think it drains and dries fast. Perhaps, the rain is good for the turf?
Let’s hope the rain is just overnight/morning. Thanks.
I’ve enjoyed reading the comments by the regular contributors on this blog, regarding the Breeders’ Cup. Needless to say, handicapping the five races on Friday and the nine races on Saturday is quite a challenge to say the least.
There’s been scores of opinions on the horses running in the various BC races, but not a lot of comments on the jockeys.
Flavien Prat has four mounts on Friday’s card and eight mounts on Saturday’s card, which include a mix of favorites and longshots. I expect Prat to have two good days of racing, which would enhance his chances of winning the Eclipse Award as North America’s outstanding jockey of 2024.
Prat has won 15 more graded stakes then Irad, who has over 400 more mounts, and leads the country in wins/earnings, his usual terrific season—IF—Prat can ride Sierra Leone to Classic victory I think he wins the Eclipse, Irad has good mounts, too this weekend….an interesting “race within the races”….
Exactly.
Racing a lot more and maintaining a high win average is harder, not easier, than racing a lot less with a similar win average.
I enjoyed the Breakfast at the Breeders’ Cup a lot yesterday, albeit through an antihistamine haze. (Bronchitis. I was desperate to stop coughing, so I hit the albuterol inhaler and took some amazing cough syrup. It was gooood.)
I fell in love with Forever Young all over again, seeing his honest bay face, the ease with which he is ridden at all gaits, and his little pricked ears. Also enjoyed seeing Next trying to steal the girl-in-the-field’s ball cap.
I really liked the Japanese-owned/American bred filly, Otomena Shacho. So interesting to see those Japanese horses really putting in some stiff gallops right up to the race.
Last note: The Bloodhorse finally posted their pre-race write up for the Dirt Mile, which had been MIA. I thought that was weird, because it sure looks salty, even without National Treasure! I will go with Skippy – 2 turns and all.
I’m gonna back a few geldings this year. I would love to see connections rewarded for racing their horses with the intent to WIN, rather than campaigning stud prospects with an “afraid-to-lose” mindset. Also, I really like Next, Skippylongstocking, and Rebel’s Romance for the horses (and warriors) they are.
I am looking forward to this so much. Hopi no for safe training, sound ponies, and safe trips for all!
HOPING. I am hoping. No, I am not a Hopi, no. My regular autocorrect bot must be down for repairs.
As previously declared, I am 10 toes down with Highland Falls. As is my MO, I try to find all the meaningless facts to bolster my decision to make this 4YO my top choice.
The strong Breeder Cup pedigree, if there is such a pedigree, that Highland falls possesses has been previously highlighted. His sire, dam and dam sire won a Breeder Cup race with the BCC being the one captured by Curlin and Awesome Again.
Curlin and Awesome Again went on to become the sire of BCC winners (Vino Rosso/Ghostzapper). What was not previously mentioned is that Paynter the sire of the 2021 BCC winner Knicks Go is son of Awesome Again. Which makes Awesome again a sire and grandsire of a BCC winner. Surely, it is within the realm of possibility that he could emerge the dam sire of a BCC winner. That’s the only vacant slot on his BC resume.
Godolphin the owner/breeder of Highland Falls has never won the BCC. The operation’s best finish was in 2001 when Arc winner Sakhee was dined by Tiznow by a NS.
Interestingly, the 2001 BCC contained two European invaders making their dirt debut. Sakhee for Godolphin and Galileo for Coolmore. Galileo was the 2nd choice in the wagering and Sakhee the 3rd. The favorite was who? The regally bred Aptitude. Of note, Sakhee contested the BCC 20 days after winning the Arc. Sakhee finished ahead of Galileo. the two powerhouse operations will be represented in the 2024 BCC with COT significantly favored over Highland Falls.
Despite Godolphin being a global powerhouse in Thoroughbred Racing. The operation has an affinity for winning big races at a price. The operation’s first Epsom Derby winner Massar left the gates @12/1. Their 2nd Epsom Derby winner Adayar left the gates at 16/1. All two Epsom Oaks winner rat 9/ & 14 and recent 2000 British Guineas winner Noble Speech (16/1) and one should ignore Godolphin’s live entrants in big races at one’s own peril.
Highlands Falls trainer Brad Cox has only been represented by 3 staters in the BCC. Owendale (10th), Knicks Go – Favorite, (1st) and Essential Quality – Favorite (3rd). His only winner Knicks Go recorded 10 consecutive losses before being placed under his keep and care. He transformed Knicks Go into a BC Dirt Mile & BCC winner, HOTY and the world #1 USA based horse. This feat might just be the greatest transformation of thoroughbred in American history.
Given the magical hands of Brad Cox’s, Godolphin’s affinity to win big races at price and a draw with late closers on either side. The prospect of Godolphin winning its first BCC is real.
So, my friends with no ill will intended, I cannot focus on any other likely starter for the top spot. But there is a fallow longshot that is just as tempting.
transformation and magical hands, lol …. oh that went down well with my cup of joe
Hello Steve – going to call a few audibles for my picks in the BCC and make don’t changes based on the important PP Draw. I really like Newgate, but will toss him from his bad PP13. I’m also tossing City of Troy who will certainly get kickback from PP3. That top 4 I have settled on are Highland Falls, Fierceness, Forever Young, Sierra Leone. Great Draws from Highland Falls and Fierceness. Forever Young can save ground from PP1 and you know SL will be flying late. I will only use those 4 in my P5 and P6. I will put HF on top of a $6 TRI with the other three. Thanks for all you do Steve, should be a helluva BCC. Burning the midnight oil to make these changes . I like that the BCC anchors a P5 and starts the Late P5.
I agree with all of that. Moves Highland Falls up as a longshot pick and add to three you mentioned.
Steve Haskin, you are a very funny writer. You should be Bill Mott’s interpreter. I’m still chuckling and it will be difficult for me to sleep tonight!
I’ll send you a tape of my last interview with Bill. LOL Just kidding I love Bill. He’s proobably my favorite trainer. All class and no b.s. and totally humble.
Bill Mott is a true Horseman, no doubts in my mind about it.
Bill does it the right way.
Steve, did you catch Bill Mott being interviewed by Matt Chapman from Sky (UK) yesterday? Bill Mott had a stupefied look on his face, wearing sunglasses, while Chapman kept asking his opinion on every other horse bar the ones he trains.
Mott tried walking away a few times but Chapman kept on going.
Mott’s opinion on City of Troy was worth the interview, nonetheless.
Non Compliant and Out on Bail both out of the Breeders’Cup. There goes two horses I was looking forward to seeing run.
Both are sired by Tiz the Law who is the current first crop leading stallion over Vekoma ($205K-gap) and McKinzie ($388K shorter). With the scratches of Tiz the Law’s daughter and son his chances of keeping the top spot is greatly diminished. Tiz the Law is now counting on just Scythian (12/1) to win the $520K for the first place in the Juvenile Fillies Turf… but she will have to contend with Vekoma’s daughter Vixen (15/1) and McKinzie’s Quickick (10/1).
Vekoma also has Mi Bago vying for the Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance Stakes at 20/1 but the first place offers only $120K in that race.
The best card for Vekoma is Jonathan’s Way (9/2) in the BC Juvenile where McKinzie’s son Chancer McPatrick looks like a main contender at 3/1 for the $1.2MM prize for first place.
I believe McKinzie will be the champion first crop sire thanks to the expected performances of Scottish Lassie (5/2) in the BC Juvenile Fillies and Chancer McPatrick.
However, Tiz the Law would keep the mantle if any finishes out of placing (2nd as minimum)…
Nelson, Tiz the Law has 87 named foals compared to Vekoma’s 146 and McKinzie’s 138, yet Tiz the Law has more black type winners.
In %s, Tiz the Law gets 12.5% black type winners, Vekoma gets 6.3%, McKinzie gets 3.7%
The dye is cast. No one is fooled by massively sized crops with low percentages of black type winners.
Agree … Tiz the Law has an amazing first crop … his progeny is good on turf and dirt as well. His 2.05 AEI is really outstanding. Tiz the Law could have equaled the record of 6 BT horses for a first crop.
I see your point … Bold Ruler had 366 foals and “only” 285 starters with 83 BT winners (an astonishing 29%).
Breeders look for massification for the earnings which is dictating the stallion championship chances.
Gun Runner had 17.2 % of BT horses last year vs. 12.2% for Into Mischief who took the title.
Yes, Nelson. With Tiz the Law it’s actually Coolmore he has to impress, with black type 2 year olds. They are so ruthless if the sires don’t perform. This year Tiz the Law had 158 mares bred so he’s doing well. Next year they will be even higher due to this year’s success with his first crop on the track.
As you have pointed out above, today’s sires black type percentages are dwarfed by the Bold Rulers, Danzigs, Northern Dancers et al percentages.
I think Tiz the Law might actually be doing better with turf runners than dirt runners but it’s too early to presume anything really. I was really disappointed that he lost those two from the Breeders’ Cup as you wanted to see how they had progressed since their last wins.
I know, it’s frustrating seeing ‘so and so’ getting champion sire titles only because they are massively represented on the track. By the way, good post to cold facts.
If you want to become a great baseball player….drink alkaline water…(only an old timer would get that joke)..
I get it. I have always noticed that 🙂
The weather for Friday looks fine. Not so good for Saturday….70% chance of rain.
Let’s hope the main track does not turn into a muddy quagmire.
Are we talking about Del Mar USA where it never rains?
Literally, it is going to rain on our parades? Thanks a lot, Stepmother Nature! Who did their handicapping based on ability over an off track? And what is Del Mar’s track like when it rains? Time to scramble on that, for me at least.
Y’all already know what I think of Next. Outside post doesn’t bother me. AND if it rains, he has even more credibility in this field. After all, his abilities on dirt were discovered on a wet fast track when the Cape Henlopen was taken off the turf. He won the 2023 Greenwood by 25 lengths at 1.5miles on a track listed “sloppy.”
I am happy to eat crow on this experiment, but I love Next… and now I hope it rains.
City of Troy looked good on the main track today….he gets over it…..doesn’t look uncomfortable..
I have to admit, some of my skepticism was allayed by seeing that gallop. I still think their approach is madness – just remains to be seen if it is also genius. They’ll certainly find out if he can take kickback, based on the PP draw – unless he breaks like a scalded cat and takes them all the way (which I doubt).
Aiden’s Army was an impressive sight overall. I really liked Diego Velazquez! He is a horse who hasn’t been on my radar, but he is now (even if it’s for a short run).
Steve,
Thanks for your perspective on 3 possible overlays. You just never know when it comes to the Breeders Cup as your article on Arcangue can encompass. I am really liking the way Newgate is coming into this race. His works have been superb and although he drew an extreme outside post position it should hurt him that much. Dettorrie should be able to get him into a suitable position (6th or 7th) going into the first turn. I just hope he doesn’t think he has Pegasus under him and vie for the lead. I was at Del Mar when he broke his maiden and was very impressed of what I saw of him that day. I am not much on Arthur’s Ride expect him to fizzle about 3/4 thru the race if he runs his usual front running style. Sierra Leone just needs a clean trip to be there at the end.
Right now my money is still with City of Troy and Forever Young. I like what I see of Fierceness. He is reminding me a lot like Cody Wish looked last year … well muscled almost like sculptured marble. His being able to rate on the frontend of the Travers is really making it tough for me to dismiss him. Will have on this later.
I’ve been watching Fierceness . Looks like he’s really filled out. I wish Newgate wasnt out so far. Loving what I see from Forever Young. He is such a cool horse
Fierceness looks really good….three year olds can fill out and improve, as the year goes on…
Hi Steve – On “X”, the Breeders Cup posted a graphic yesterday that indicated the highest rate of winners came roughly in posts 1-6 (4 & 5 saw the most). Of course, anything can happen (as you say) but I wonder what your thoughts are about which horses seem to have favorable posts for their running style and whose chances could be hurt by their post, thx.
I;m OK with Sierra Leone, but Newgate and Arthur’s Ride are out a bit farther than I would like. Fierceness drew great. Highland Falls is very interesting breaking from the inside. He could be right up there with the pace. He will relish the 1 1/4 miles. Forever Young needs a sharp break,
This year’s BC Juvenile has every one of the big prep winners!
Morning all.
Let me declare that I harbor no unfriendly feelings, enmity, bitterness, antipathy, hostility, or any other negative feelings that would contribute to any ill will toward any in this forum.
Like all in this forum, I merely provide my perspective on thoroughbreds and thoroughbred related issues. Whilst I never expect my perspectives to be shared, it is my hope that they occasionally provide food for thought for those who chose to read them.
Going forward, I do not intend to post any comments on horses I do not fancy and restrict my post to those that have captured my interest.
This blog has influence me to identify my own potential overlays. But, given the ML listed below, and the fact that my fancy to win is listed @20/1. This suggests, there is no need to look elsewhere. But I cannot help taking a sneak peek on other likely starters.
Pyrenees has seriously captured by attention. Could this 4YO be the likely winner hiding in plain sight? Can he make up the 4L deficit and some on Highlands Falls?
One of the most significant bits of information I have uncovered since his runner up finish in the JCGC, is found in his reported works. His first 2 works after his 2nd in JCGC were a pair of 49 for 4F. Thereafter he worked 4F in 46.60; 5F in 59.60 and 4F in 47.20. This colt had never previously worked 4F in 46 and 5F in sub one minute.
The above works suggest this colt is coming into the BCC very sharp. With training trending toward tactical speed this 4YO should be forwardly placed and in a position to engage the leaders early in the stretch.
Pyrenees will be on all my tickets.
I enjoy your perspectives as well as everyone else’s. Different views and opinions are great, so keep it moving forward. Goodluck with Pyrenees.
I like your posts, but—the constant references to cheating trainers becomes tiresome and overstated, after the 15th post…Come with your longshots! Your reasons fir liking them….but less of the accusations, we all know by now who you don’t like..
Decent trainers deserve credit, dirty ones gets zero breaks in my book. Never do I stick my head in the sand.
The Breeder’s Cup Classic Post Positions and Moring Line odds:
1-Forever Young 6/1
2-Highland Falls 20/1
3-City of Troy 5/2
4-Mixto 30/1
5-Senor Buscador 30/1
6-Derma Sotogake 20/1
7-Ushba Tesoro 12/1
8-Pyreness 30/1
9-Fierceness 3/1
10-Tapit Trice 30/1
11-Sierra Leone 12/1
12-Arthur’s Ride 15/1
13-Newgate 20/1
14-Next 8/1
Arthur’s Ride and Newgate are plausible overlays indeed !
Steve’s overlays are 11, 12 and 13 … is that an augury?
Cool use of the word, augury, Nelson. I agree with you re: Arthur’s Ride and Newgate or we both agree with Steve. Ha ha
An augury of what? Good or bad? Does that mean they will finish 11th, 12th, and 13th? 🙂 Much rather have had them in 7, 8, and 9..
Yes, Steve, at Del Mar outside of post 9 does concern me. Arthur’s Ride’s and Newgate’s early speed might compensate with the posts.
City of Troy, IF, he gets away quick from the gate and IF the dirt is to his liking has every chance from that post.
Not sure if Fierceness got a good post or a bad post, could go either way but that’s racing.
I think post 9 is perfect for him
Steve, I fear that Arthur’s Ride and Newgate will, relentlessly, be intent to cross over fast which might intimidate Fierceness.
Alternately, Fierceness has slowish starters surrounding him so Ferocious may have a perfect situation in endeavoring to cross over near or on the lead.
Lol!! the iPad corrected Fierceness to Ferocious.
Second digits are 1, 2 and 3 … and they break together as they were featured in this piece …
I am tossing a pinch of salt over my left shoulder just in case…
Steve, thanks again for giving us your opinion on a topic that is fascinating many with the field for the Breeders’ Cup Classic.
I agree with you re: Arthur’s Ride and Newgate but I feel the track might be against Sierra Leone.
The favorable post positions this year could be vital for many to perform at their best. Coming up soon.
It could very well be, but this time of year who knows how the track will be playing
I have sit here quietly for months loving the remarks of most all the comments on this site.
Counter Point – You are the exception.
Not only do you purposely disagree with many on here, you do it with ill will.
You think you are smarter than everyone here, but your stats and predictions prove otherwise.
You even bash Steve, and I, for one, think he takes your antics better than I would in his position.
And to refer to Kingsbarns as Pyrenees “Chemical Opponent” is really over the top.
Steve, I have followed you, which seems like forever now, and I am truly thankful that you share all of your wonderful stories and KD rankings with us all.
David
David,
This is an opinion forum. It is unfortunate that you have assessed that my opinions are grounded in ill will.
I absolutely do not purposely disagree with anyone. I merely provide my perspective, along with facts to indicate the basis of my opinion. My intent isn’t to be a provocateur. I just provide counter points.
I would greatly appreciate if you could provide an example of a post that supports your claim of ill will. If I am unknowingly guilty of ill will, which is an extremely serious claim, I am man enough to either apologize or provide further context for my perspective.
Regarding disagreement with Steve. I am not obliged to agree with every perspective provided the award-winning writer. I cannot recall any post in which I have definitively disagree with Steve. In fact, I am mindful so not do as this always anger his supporter.
I have nothing but absolute respective for Steve and his accomplishment. But I am by no mean a victim of blind love. Those I iconize are held to a higher level. Juss like all who supports of Thoroughbred Racing, Steve isn’t always right and consequently he is neither above nor beyond disagreement.
Regarding my comments on Kingsbarns. I have a chart of TP horses. I have been able to determine a pattern which I am of the opinion is associated with a High-Tech Program in operation. I was not surprised that Kingsbarns never made another start. He was not favored in his last start and his unexpected performance is consistent with pattern of that barn
The list of horse that deliver surprising performance form TP’s barn and then go MIA or never race again is extensive and exhaustive. I have track each. Some fans of certain trainer focus on their success, but the glaring other side of their operation doesn’t warrant a focus. I guess the end justify the means.
I have never harbored the opinion that I am smarter than anyone in this forum. in fact, in the intellectual department I am at the bottom in this forum. I try to stay within my intellectual lane. To associate me with smart does a disservice to those who are truly smart.
All It try to do here is provide a different perspective. I might be severely flawed in how I so do., but no ill will is ever intended. It indeed unfortunate that you have chosen not to engage me regarding you perception before your arrived at your verdict.
One Love!
Kingsbarns was retired after suffering a strained ligament in his left front leg after his workout on August 4. I do not consider him “missing in action” … if athletes with two legs get injured the ones weighing more than 1000 pounds with four legs are at least 20 times more prone to more serious injuries.
What is surprising about a horse that was undefeated going to the Derby after winning the noteworthy Louisiana Derby and evolved in form to win Stephen Foster last Summer?
Every long-standing Steve follower already knows your MO of cherry picking “facts” to satisfy your contrarian disposition. You never seem to change your tune…!
Have you ever taken off your dark glasses and counted the number of Grade 1, Grade 2 and Grade 3 winners by Todd Pletcher; or the number of champions developed by the Hall of Fame trainer and the amount of outstanding sires comming out of his barn?
Do you have any idea of how many of Pletcher horses have run for more than two years?
I you knew those numbers you would discover that the list of Pletcher accomplishments is at least 50 times larger than any of your bleak charts.
It is really tough to understand what your end game is. Your opinions can be easily confused with obsessions.
Everybody knows that the sport is a garner of peaks and valleys. The same way you accuse people of focusing on success you can be deemed as one who only sees the downsides of everything. You see the missfortune of some race horses under a “glaring” light of alleged trainer’s negligence.
That might not be ill opinion but it is a faulty opinion based on faulty reasoning.
From your reply to David, it seems like you are seeking the trust of people by using trustless means.
I am taking the time to refute your speculations just because I believe we should mitigate misinformation and disinformation where ever they surface.
Nelson, agree with almost everything you stated in last post,however never has Pletcher had my respect.
Thank you very much, David. I appreciate it. I hope you come back again and offer your comments.
Steve, I’ve always admired how you play ‘the bigger man’ with obvious recalcitrances in the past and the present.
If you haventt seen it the hero of the day is Ushba Tesoro’s exercise rider. Greatest bit of horsemanship Ive seen in a long time.. Saved a potential catastrophe.
Where did you see the video of that, Steve? I read about the incident just now. Sounded scary.
arlingtonfan, “Breakfast at the Breeders’ Cup” – you can catch it on YouTube. 25: 50 minutes into the 3 hour 10 minute show.
Thank you sooo much for this, Davids! My goodness, that rider was the very definition of coolness under pressure.
It was extraordinary, Steve. Great horsemanship, could have been an absolute disaster.
I wonder….will we ever again see a Horse of the Year full male horse race the following year, or does the breeding shed take that away in perpituity? Would it take another Lucky Pulpit?…Because we all need another son of Into Mischief!..
Steve,
If you had asked your supporters to guess your three potential live overlays. I would have wagered heavily that Pyrenees would have been one.
I like Highland Falls to win. But the runner up to him in the JCGC has to be considered one of the most dangerous longshots amongst those in the category.
Pyrenees entered the Steven Foster on a 4-race win streak. He ran into a chemical opponent whom he had previously defeated over a longer distance and although finishing 2nd he was really no match. That Chemical opponent blew few gaskets from his (E) and is retired. Ff not the aforementioned misfortune, he would have entered the JCGC with 5 consecutive wins.
But there is something more significant. Pyrenees entered the JCGC 63 days between start. It’s never easy to win a 10f race two months off the shelves. He was the only one that displayed any interest behind Highland Falls in the stretch. He finished ahead of Tapit Trice who previously defeated Highland Fals by 5L and Arthur’s Ride who was returning $0.85 on the dollar
With the JCGC run under his girth, he is likely to return a fitter animal for the BCC.
First off, the next time you say chemical opponent it will be deleted. And if you believe that then you shouldnt be ignorant about who is and isnt a chemical opponent.
Pyrenees sat back off of a pace battle, and came running for 2nd, beaten 4 lengths?…And steps way, way up now?…
Highest Equibase Figure for 10F
Highland Fall – Jockey club Gold Cup – 114
Fierceness – Travers – 110
Sierra Leone – Kentucky Derby – 110
forever Young – Kentucky Derby – 110
Arthurs Ride – Allowance -115
Next – Brooklyn/Birdstone (1 3/4M &1 3/8M) 110
New Gate – Big Cap – 111
Senor Buscador – BCC- 109
Mixto – Pacific Classic – 108
Pyrenees – Jocky Club Gold Cup – 108
Skippylongstocking Oaklawn Hdn/Charles Town Classic (9F) 114 (No 10F race)
Tapit Trice – Jockey Club Gold Cup – 104
Correction:-
Arthur’s Ride was given a 115 by Equibase in the Whitney Stakes as well as the allowance win at Saratoga.
Arthur’s Ride should be on top of your list.
Steve, thanks for making the case for these three horses in the Classic (especially since just about every horse in the race has a real chance to win). That said, I think you may have nailed the trifecta in your last sentence.
Who do you like in the Juvenile?
Noot cazy about his post but I’ve been on East Avenue fom day one. And he looks awesome on the track.
Yesterday, I posted a comment on Next, and his potential as a live contender in the Classic. It appears you like his chances as well. However, just to be clear, my top pick in the Classic is Highland Falls.
On a side note, I’ve been touting Sovereignty for some time and today he didn’t let me down. In today’s edition of the G3 Street Sense, he was dead last during the back stretch run but swung eight wide going around the far turn, drawing off by 5 lengths for the win. He finished the 1 1/16 Steet Sense in 1:43.86, earning an impressive Equibase Speed figure of 96 in the process. Prior to today’s win, he was still a maiden, finishing 2nd and 4th in two career starts. I believe the way he fought back to finish a neck behind the highly regarded Praetor (last out) probably convinced his connections to enter him in the Street Sense. He was 5-1 on the morning line but closed at 7/5 when the gates opened.
Sovereignty is a Godolphin homebred, by top sire Into Mischief, out of Crowned, by Bernardini. His 2nd dam, Mushka, was 1st in the G1 Spinster and 2nd in the BC Ladies’ Classic. Her sire, Empire Maker was 1st in the G1 Belmont, G1 Wood, G1 Florida Derby and 2nd in the Kentucky Derby.
Needless to say, Sovereignty has a ton of class and stamina on the top and bottom of his impressive pedigree.
Earning 10 points for his win in the Street Sense, Sovereignty is officially on the Kentucky Derby trail. Keep a close eye on this colt moving forward.
Bill, I agree with you that Sovereignty was very impressive. He set a new stakes record on a day when times weren’t particularly fast. I moved him all the way to #4 on my personal 2YO ranking. Looking forward Friday’s Juvenile — no matter who wins, I think East Avenue, Chancer McPatrick, and Gaming are the top three in that race.
Thanks for the reply, Ms Blacktype
From my perspective, there are seven colts in the Juvenile that look very competitive. In addition to my top pick, Chancer McPatrick, the other six are, Citizen Bull, East Avenue, Gaming, Ferocious, Jonathan’s Way and Getaway Car.
It would come as no surprise if one of those seven won the Juvenile.
In my Pick 5 wager, I’ll use all seven. I’m just might single Ecoro Sieg in the Juv. Turf Sprint to make the ticket more affordable. The other three races in the Pick 5 sequence are still up in the air.
Good luck in Breeders’ Cup.
They’ve all got ability, that’s for sure. I like East Avenue, Chancer, and Gaming, who I think might be the best of the Californians for the Triple Crown next year.
Hi Ms Blacktype
Sovereignty opened at 25-1 in the KD Futures Pool 1, which opens for betting on Oct. 30th. That Pool closes on Nov. 1st at 6:00 pm (eastern time) before the BC Juvenile goes off.
The odds on the main contenders in the Juvenile are ridiculously low which are as follows:
East Avenue, 10-1
Chancer McPatrick, 12-1
Jonathan’s Way, 12-1
Ferocious, 20-1
Citizen Bull, 25-1
Gaming, 30-1
Getaway Car, 30-1
Ecoro Azel looks enticing at 50-1. I intend to single him in my Pick 5 wager on Friday. He’s entered in the Juvenile Turf Sprint, but his pedigree reflects sufficient stamina as well and dirt influence.
If the time in his last race, at 6 furlongs (1:07.20) is accurate, this colt has all the makings of a “freak”. Hopefully, at some time in the future, his connections will try him in a dirt stakes race.
At 50-1, I might lay a few bucks on him this coming Friday, before the close of betting.
Great article Steve. The 4 I believe have the best chance of winning are Forever Young, Newgate,Fierceness, and City of Troy. I will use all 4 of those in my P6 and both P5’s. Newgate as you said will be overlooked and the TRI will pay if he wins. I will do a $6 TRI with Newgate on top and the other 3 that I mentioned filling out the other slots. Arthur’s ride is quickly becoming a wise guy horse. The jocks are smart, and in a 14 horse field I don’t see AR loping around the track with an uncontested lead. I’m sure Highland Falls and Fierceness won’t give him any breathers. Really looking forward to the BC Card on Saturday which is only 6 days away now.
My Classic strategy is: Arthur’s Ride will set a hard pace, and all of the stalkers will be defeated by the big grey—closers will be coming—Sierra Leone, Ushba Tesoro, Tapit Trice, Forever Young, even Mixto, who loves Del Mar (I was present for his Sept 3rd 2022 debut, a close 4th to National Treasure and Practical Move)….
Matthew, something that keeps ringing in my ear is a statement I heard on NYRA bets that ‘during the last two Del Mar Breeders’ Cup Carnivals’ not one closer managed to win. That knocks quite a few highly regarded runners in the Breeders’ Cup Classic out.
Tapit Trice I wouldn’t consider a true closer but the others you mentioned are in trouble due to the track’s surface and short straight. Arthur’s Ride looks a real danger to me and Bill Mott has plenty of grey matter up top besides his grey hair. Ha ha
City of Troy is a puzzle but the post position for some is extremely important – the poison challis’ are waiting to be delivered tomorrow.
Pace makes the race! I forgot to mention Next, who also will be closing, he might get far back, he runs slow early fractions…
Davids, everything will depend on Arthur’s Ride, and his early speed….if Arthur’s doesn’t set sail—there won’t be enough pace, but if he does—I think there will be early moves! And tiring stalkers! Arthur’s could very well WIN—I think the closers will fill out the trifecta…
I just cannot envision a :48 3/5 opening half! In Sierra Leone we have a big closer who has contended with soft fractions all year….I cannot recall a season of classics quite like this year….
Nor can I, Matthew, and if City of Troy is comfortable on the dirt don’t forget he basically lead start to finish in the 10f Juddmonte International.
In the process defeating the next up Arc winner, Bluestocking.
City of Troy’s win in the Juddmonte should be underlined.
I can see Arthur’s Ride and City of Troy sailing away from the rest, if they get the right post positions.
Yes, Davids…City of Troy defeated older horses, and the US three year olds still have not faced older—that is why he is favored….I cannot envision him favored, though—having never run over dirt—O’Brien says he’s better than Giant’s Causeway, which is saying a lot!
I remember closers winning….all speed? No way—Roy H was four off…CeCe was six off….Caledonia Road? Way back….Good Magic? Four off WHAT was the article writer talking about .
Matthew W., what about the scenario where Arthur’s Ride and FIERCENESS battle for the lead? Won’t that set it up for a closer?
Yes, if they battle….I have not yet seen Fierceness battle early, Fierceness gets into a rhythm and stalks, then pounces at the half mile pole….should Arthur’s set a :47 half—and Fierceness engages him in, say 1:11….maybe 1:10 and change….I predict Arthur’s will turn him back! I’m just trying to figure out a scenario, so to speak, where Arthur’s Ride takes them a long was, maybe the WHOLE WAY—with the closers flying late!..