Derby Rankings

Well, you have come this far after three months, so you might as well stick around and endure the torture you are about to encounter, as we throw more curveballs at you, and even a knuckleball or two. But first we off a rather unique interview to set the stage for what is to come. If this were a Broadway play it would be “It’s a Mad, Mad, Mad. Mad World.”…

If you want to test your passion level when it comes to the Kentucky Derby and how much you can absord at one time, just see if you can make it all the way through this column. We promise not to quiz you afterwards, so take your time and let it all soak in. And do not do a word count. Then after you are either enlightened or even more confused, come back on Thursday for our handicapping and wagering analysis, with the emphasis on overlays and longshots, many of whom are featured in this column in great detail to give you some advanced ammunition…

As we get ready for the Kentucky Derby and begin sorting through the past performances, videos, and speed figures, good luck trying to figure how all these lightly raced horses with two, three, and four lifetime starts are going to run at 1 1/4 miles in a 20-horse field. If that confuses you, then wait until you get to Danon Bourbon, the brilliant Japanese-trained colt who has decimated his opponents in all three of his career starts. We have absolutely no idea how good he is or how he will handle American racing, but we do know there is a story behind him that stretches all the way from Japan to a small farm in Versailles, Kentucky. So for a few minutes, forget the handicapping and enjoy the story of Danon Bourbon, while also touching on the other Japanese representative Wonder Dean…

There are two parts to this column. One is about a dominating force not only in this year’s Kentucky Derby, but in the entire racing and breeding industry, and the story and the genius behind that force. The second part is simply a partial update of the Derby Rankings based on new information gathered since last week’s rankings. Stay tuned next week for an in depth look at the two Japanese horses in this year’s Derby. Could this finally be their year? We also will have any additional updates to the Derby picture and several early upset and overlay possibilities. Then the serious analysis begins…

It seems as if we were just welcoming everyone to Week 1 of the Derby Rankings. A great deal has happened since, and here we are welcoming you to the final Rankings list. Right now it looks as if the top 5 or 6 have separated themselves from the others. We could have juggled around the top 4 after the Blue Grass, but they are so close we just decided to leave the order the way it was and let them settle it. Also, because it is the final Rankings we have reverted back to our long-winded comments, at least on the top-ranked horses. And we have focused on the Thoro-Graph numbers from the previous week because they were quite revealing, and added a major part of Knocking on the Door to the Brisnet pace figures. We also felt a lot of readers would be interested in getting a closer and more personal look at No. 1 Renegade, so we have devoted the whole opening of Knocking on the Door to discussing his background. Finally, remember, we will have a Pros and Cons on each horse column on April 27 of Derby Week. In the meantime stay tuned for our bonus Derby Rankings-related columns in the next two weeks that will combine this year’s Derby horses with some historical perspective, as well as bloodlines…

Well, we have one more weekend to go and all the preps other than the Lexington Stakes will be in the book, and then comes the waiting and hoping, all the while with thoughts of Paladin in everyone’s head. This was a productive weekend with formful stakes and top-class performances. We have ranked 20 horses with some of the comments longer than others, depending on how much there is to say on each horse…

The Rankings this week will be different, as we were in Kentucky most of the week and didn’t return until Sunday. Therefore we are going to expand the Rankings to 25 with short comments on each horse and do without a detailed Knocking on the Door, as in my mind everyone is knocking on the door. Next week we will whittle the number of ranked horses back down and go into a deeper analysis of each horse, as well as races recently run (including the Louisiana Derby and Jeff Ruby, which didn’t tell us much) and the final preps coming up…

Well, the last slow weekend has passed, and now it is all about 100-point preps and sorting everything out. Please note that due to travel, next week’s Rankings will be late and with just brief comments, as we will not even begin writing them and analyzing the Louisiana Derby and Jeff Ruby Steaks until late Sunday…

There was an old movie titled “Love With the Proper Stranger.” To me the title applies to this year’s Derby trail. I have never seen so many people falling in love with proper strangers. Having been compiling Derby Rankings, Derby Dozen, and Derby Watch for the past 34 years, I have always gotten to know all the pretty faces before falling in love. But enough metaphors. With so many exciting horses having only two or three lifetime starts, we are falling for virtual strangers. But in this day and age it has been known to work out, and so we look at horses like Paladin, Chief Wallabee, The Puma, Canaletto, Potente, Iron Honor, Class President, Golden Tempo, and Reagan’s Honor and see them as Derby horses even though we know so little about them. With that said, here is the latest episode of “The Dating Game.” Sometimes you get lucky and find the right one…

So, you think this weekend’s stakes helped clear up the Derby picture, right? Definitely wrong. What we have now is a virtual eight-horse tie for the top ranking. That’s one way of saying these horses are so interchangeable, you can rank them anywhere and make a case for it. None of them stand out and all of them have given reasons why they can win the Derby. You’ll just have to read the comments to get some idea what my impressions are of each horse, realizing that where they are ranked is based on where my brain waves were at the time I sent them in…