Derby 2021 Handicapping Analysis
This column likely will confuse you even more than you already are, but I will try to break down the race in as many ways as I can and throw some possible wagers at you. But things change quickly and there are some bets on which I am noncommittal at this point, so I likely will be posting updates in the comments section through Saturday. My Rankings tell you who I believe are the best overall horses based on talent, pedigree, eye test, and rate of improvement. This column will focus more on wagering and finding value. Of course, in many instances they are one and the same. ~ Steve Haskin
Derby Dilemma is Here, 2021 Handicapping Analysis
By Steve Haskin
Let’s get one wager out of the way that I have to seriously consider. With this Derby being so confusing in so many ways, how can I not box the four horses from the Week 1 Rankings who made it to the Derby – Essential Quality, Known Agenda, Medina Spirit, and Keepmeinmind. It could be a trifecta or exacta box, but an exacta will pay nothing if it’s Essential Quality and Known Agenda. These are four solid horses with a lot of back class and a strong foundation and two will be good prices, so why not? It would have been a five-horse box had Caddo River not dropped out at the last minute, but now I can save money with one less horse. More on this later.
OK, now that we got that out of the way, let’s try to unravel this puzzle. First off, how can you truly handicap this Derby when you have three horses who have made only one start this year and four horses who have made only three lifetime starts, including one horse who is going to be no worse than second choice. And you have four horses coming off 6- and 8-week layoffs. So do we really know who many of these horses are? You also have half the field trained by four trainers, three of them Hall of Famers and one potential future Hall of Famer. Add Hall of Famer Bob Baffert and future Hall of Famers Chad Brown and Doug O’Neill and you have 13 of the 20 horses trained by Hall of Fame trainers. So, good luck to Greg Foley, Robertino Diodoro, Danny Velazquez, and Vickie Oliver.
What we’re going to do is break down the race into categories. The first will be speed figures. You have seen many references to Thoro-Graph figures and some of you are still bit confused by them. So I will sort them out and list the horses I feel are on the best pattern, which is more important in many ways than how fast their numbers are. The pattern is what gives you a clue who is going to peak on Derby Day.
Another category will be works, gallops, and overall appearance. Most of these horses look great and are training great, but I will point out the ones I feel are standouts and thriving at Churchill Downs.
And finally we come to handicapping and betting, focusing on potential overlays and longshots that can possibly pull off an upset or be part of the exotics.
SPEED FIGURES
There are three standouts for me on Thoro-Graph. Yes, Essential Quality has the two fastest figures, but there is a question, as slight as it may be, whether he has reached his peak. His numbers last year were strong and he began this year improving to a “negative-1/2,” which is still the only negative number run this year. Remember, the lower the number the better. In the Blue Grass he ran the second fastest number, a “0,” which was a slight regression. So, can he maintain those fast numbers or was the ½-point regression a sign that he peaked early and has already reached his level? Either number is fast enough to win the Derby, so we will just have to see if he regresses slightly again, stays around those numbers, or if another horse or horses who are on an improving pattern and projected to run a career-high number can match Essential Quality’s numbers or surpass them in the Derby.
The horse I believe is on the best pattern and sitting on a peak performance is DYNAMIC ONE, who I called my “hidden gem” and “Derby sleeper” after he finished fourth in a maiden race back in January. Although four horses have run faster than him in their last race, his pattern is stronger because he ran an excellent “5” in his second career start and it is that number that provided him with a foundation to fall back on in case he made a big jump this year and you weren’t sure if he was going to regress off it. Well, he started the year off running an “8 ¾” in the aforementioned maiden race and then improved to a “5” breaking his maiden. Having already run that “5” as a 2-year-old it was pretty certain he was going to improve off it, and he did, running a “2” in the Wood Memorial thanks to a very wide trip, running 43 feet farther than the winner. With his rate of improvement, his maturing mentally, and turning in one of the strongest works we saw all week, I am projecting that he has another significant move forward in him that will put him in a position to either win at a big price or finish in the money and be part of the exacta or trifecta. On Brisnet he has run two triple-digit late pace figures, and despite his very wide trip in the Wood Memorial he still ran a solid 96 late pace figure.
The second best pattern belongs to his stablemate KNOWN AGENDA, another horse who caught my eye early, despite having won only a maiden race by head and being beaten nine lengths in the Remsen Stakes in the slop. I thought so highly of him I ranked him No. 8 in the first Derby Rankings in January. He looked to be going nowhere, running back-to-back “11” Thoro-Graph numbers and having mental lapses where he just wasn’t focused on running. Then a frustrated and desperate Todd Pletcher put blinkers on him and he romped by 11 lengths in a mile and an eighth allowance race, with his Thoro-Graph jumping from an “11” to a “3.” The question was, would he “bounce” or regress off such a big leap? Not only did he not regress he improved to a “1 ½” in the Florida Derby, which he won going away. With five weeks to the Derby and an extra furlong that he should relish, there is no reason why he shouldn’t make another move forward. He has the strongest foundation of all the starters, having already run in four mile and an eighth races.
Even looking at his Brisnet figures, he is one of only four horses to run a triple-digit number last out, along with Essential Quality, Rock Your World, and Highly Motivated. But his late pace figure of 112 in the Florida Derby is the fastest in the field, so he does have a very strong closing kick.
The third horse is HIGHLY MOTIVATED. The reason his Thoro-Graph pattern is so strong is that having started off his career running an “8 ¼” and then a “10 ¾” he jumped all the way to a “3” in the 6 1/2-furlong Nyquist Stakes on Breeders’ Cup day. Making his 3-year-old debut in the one-mile Gotham Stakes he was able to maintain that “3” with a troubled trip, which gave him a launching pad to move forward in the Blue Grass, which he did running a “1 ¼,” second-fastest in the field. Although he should improve a bit off that in this third start of the year and having gone two turns, his pedigree for a mile and a quarter is more questionable than those of Dynamic One and Known Agenda, who are bred to run all day. So he still has to prove he can stretch out in distance and maintain his fast figures, while with the two Pletcher horses there is no doubt they will appreciate the longer distance. However, he has the fastest Brisnet figures on a consistent basis, having run three consecutive 102 figures. And to show how high his cruising speed is, he ran three triple-digit middle pace figures in his first four starts, and then in the Blue Grass ran a 105 late pace figure, indicating a horse who can maintain his speed for a long period of time.
There are several horses who have made big jumps in their Thoro-Graph numbers, such as Rock Your World, O Besos, Soup and Sandwich, Bourbonic, Helium, and King Fury, but they were all in their last start, so we really don’t know in which direction they are going to go, because unlike Dynamic One they don’t have that fast number last year to fall back on. And then we have Hot Rod Charlie and Medina Spirit, whose numbers are OK, but they have not improved at all in their last three starts, remaining stagnant (3 ¾, 3 ¾, 3 ¾ for Hot Rod Charlie and 3 ½, 3 ¼, and 3 for Medina Spirit). Those numbers should not be good enough to win the Derby, so they will have to improve them several points. They both are talented enough to do it, but we’re going by pattern, so it’s pure speculation that they will make that jump after three even performances.
HOT ROD CHARLIE is the biggest enigma. I love so many things about him, including his versatility, his courage under fire, how well he closed in the Louisiana Derby on the lead, and the way he’s been training. And his last Beyer figure of 99 is the second fastest in the field. But it all depends how you interpret his Thoro-Graph numbers. Even on Brisnet, his late pace figures have been significantly slower than his early and middle pace figures. So is he a strong closer or not? Those numbers say no, but the eye test says yes. So I am going to hold off on him until I see how he’s being bet and if there is value.
There is no sense even looking at Beyer figures. All you need to know about this year’s field is that Rock Your World has the highest Beyer at 100. In the past 30 years, only once was the highest Beyer in the field as low as 100 and that was in 2010 when Super Saver beat a mediocre field at best. If you want an alarming statistic how Beyer figures or horses have gotten slower, in 13 years between 1994 and 2006 the average number of triple-digit Beyer figures in the Derby field each year was 24.4. In 13 years between 2009 and 2021, the average is 5.2. To give you another example of the contrast, this year we have one triple-digit Beyer. When Fusaichi Pegasus won in 2000 there were 33. Of the 19 starters, 16 of them had at least one triple-digit Beyer and two of the ones who didn’t were coming from Dubai. So do we really care if one horse has 100 Beyer and the others have in the mid-to-high 90s?
TRAINING
Well, we’re back to DYNAMIC ONE, who along with KING FURY, made the biggest impression in their final work, as described in this week’s Derby Rankings. Both works were highlighted by sensational gallop-outs, especially King Fury with the rider up in the saddle and not asking him in the slightest. He has such a smooth, fluid stride, and the way he hugs the rail on the turns you realize how athletic he is and have to consider him in your exotics despite having only one start this year. His work, without company, was one of the best I’ve seen in my 30 years covering the Derby. Dynamic One has been doing everything right since he arrived at Churchill Downs and definitely looks like a horse sitting on a peak effort.
There were a number of other terrific works; way too many to detail. ROCK YOUR WORLD turned in three powerful and identical works in California, with huge gallop-outs and has been an imposing figure on the track at Churchill Downs. And you can’t fault HOT ROD CHARLIE’S Santa Anita works as well, as he’s been his usual steady self, and his back-to-back six furlong works, in which he galloped out strongly, gave him a lot of bottom since the Louisiana Derby. He was particularly strong in his Wednesday gallop, which is typical Doug O’Neill. So he is dead-fit and has a mile and three-sixteenths race under him already.
Some of the other works at Churchill Downs that caught the eye were by O BESOS, who was extremely powerful past the wire going out a strong seven furlongs; MANDALOUN, who has been gliding over the track; and SOUP AND SANDWICH’S first work. He no doubt is maturing quickly. And no horse has made a better physical impression than MIDNIGHT BOURBON, who is flourishing at Churchill Downs and growing into a magnificent-looking horse. His coat is radiant, he’s muscled out and carrying great flesh. And in his five-furlong work in :59 4/5 it didn’t look as if he was going that fast, which is what you want to see. So if you combine physical presence and works he looks like he’s sitting on a big race.
This is not to say that others have not looked terrific working. I’m just trying to pick out a few that stood out. A quick mention must also be made that Pletcher’s longshots, SAINTHOOD and BOURBONIC have been very strong and fluid in their gallops and both are feeling good.
One final work I have to mention because no one else has was the bullet half-mile work in a sizzling :46 1/5 by (the plodder?) KEEPMEINMIND. Churchill finally showed the work several days later and you would never think he was going that fast. I mentioned in the last Derby Rankings why this horse could be a live exotics play at a monster price with the blinkers off.
FINAL ANALYSIS AND WAGERING
OK, we’re finished with the window dressing. Now it is time to try to make some sense of this baffling Derby. With the exception of maybe three or four horses, it would not be a shock to see any one of these horses win, that’s how little we really know about most of them and what their ceiling is. There simply are too many questions and too few starts to get a good grasp of this field.
If you’re leaning toward one of the horses with good tactical speed or one of the deep closers, remember this: in 27 of the last 30 Derbys the winner was either first or second at the eighth pole. The only three that weren’t were Animal Kingdom (3rd), Grindstone (4th), and Giacomo (6th). With the last two, the pace was :46 flat and 1:10 flat for Grindstone and :45 1/5 and 1:09 2/5 for Giacomo. So assuming we’re not going to get a pace that fast you better have a horse who has a move explosive enough to pass 18 of the 20 horse by the time they get to the eighth pole. But then again, this 2021 and I must interject the lyrics of a song from the musical The King and I:
“There are times I almost think
I am not sure of what I absolutely know
Very often find confusion
In conclusion I concluded long ago
In my head are many facts
That, as a student, I have studied to procure
In my head are many facts
Of which I wish I was more certain I was sure!
Is a puzzlement”
So, now that I have eliminated the word expert from this year’s Derby vernacular, we can proceed.
Although I can make a case for so many of them, especially to fill out the exotics, I will just try to make it as simple as possible. With that said, let’s go right to my two early Pletcher pet projects, KNOWN AGENDA and DYNAMIC ONE, who seem like old friends by now having been very high on them since January. Pletcher has started 28 horses in the Derby who were coming off victories in major Derby preps, all graded stakes. He won one, with Always Dreaming, coming off a victory in the Florida Derby. Well, Known Agenda is not only coming off a victory in the Florida Derby, he has the same owner as Always Dreaming. And as for Dynamic One, he finished second by a head in his previous start. Pletcher’s other winner, Super Saver, finished second by a neck in his previous start. So both horses fit the profile of a Todd Pletcher Derby winner. Exacta box anyone?
Here is something to ponder as meaningless as it may be. In 1997, Gary Stevens was elected to the Hall of Fame the same year he won the Kentucky Derby on Silver Charm. In 1999, D. Wayne Lukas was elected to the Hall of Fame the same year he won the Kentucky Derby with Charismatic. In 2000, Neil Drysdale was elected to the Hall of Fame the same year he won the Kentucky Derby with Fusaichi Pegasus. Well, as we all know, Todd Pletcher will be elected to the Hall of Fame next week. Just passing that along.
As I said, I can make this complicated by spewing out a whole bunch of exotic bet combinations, but I am going to start off by looking for value win bets. Although ROCK YOUR WORLD is still my No. 1-ranked horse I feel his odds will be too low to bet him to win, unless you’ve got a big bundle of money to spend, so I will save him for the exotics. Remember, this is about wagering picks and finding value more than who is the most talented horse. I still believe Rock Your World is the most talented with the higher ceiling, even though I am still against horses in the Derby with only three lifetime starts. In short, Essential Quality, Known Agenda, and Hot Rod Charlie are your AT&T, the safer and more reliable stock with a longer and solid history behind it. Rock your World is the exciting new company that is just getting started whose stock can take off at any time. But there is also the risk factor due to its lack of experience.
My main win bet has been on KNOWN AGENDA for a while for reasons I have been explaining since January and I was hoping he would be a good value bet. Before the Florida Derby Churchill Downs refused to include him in any of its Derby Future Wager fields, so I was unable to get him at a big price. Now that big price is long gone. With Rock Your World at 5-1 on the morning line and Known Agenda at only 6-1 I’m not sure where the value is with my meager means. Drawing the rail is never what you want and maybe that will push his odds up a little, along with Jim McIngvale’s $2 million win bet on Essential Quality. Maybe enough people will remember his $3.4 million bet on the Tampa Bay Bucs in the Super Bowl and figure he doesn’t lose bets like this. If Known Agenda’s odds are that low on Derby Day I will have to key him and Rock Your World in the exactas with about a dozen horses and use them prominently in trifectas, but more on that later.
As for Known Agenda’s inside post, it’s never ideal in a 20-horse field, but he did win the Florida Derby racing on the rail most of the way and easing out approaching the head of the stretch, so he’s at least shown he doesn’t mind being down on the inside and can negotiate a good trip. And it is still the quickest way around there. This is not like drawing the rail in past years. With the new single gate he will have more room to his inside and the five horses directly outside him have little or no speed, so he should not encounter any traffic problems early on as long as he breaks well. If you like him you don’t want to back off now and have him get a dream trip, so stick with him and let it play out.
I do know that I am making a pretty significant (for me) win bet on my longshot special DYNAMIC ONE and a slightly lesser bet on O BESOS. Those are my two main win bets at a big price. As of right now I likely will also put a win bet on MIDNIGHT BOURBON based on his work and how good he looks physically, and just hoping he gets the perfect trip and has used these six weeks to move forward. I just keep seeing flashes of Tiznow from a physical sense and not knowing when he is going to have that breakout performance. He is going to be much higher odds than his Louisiana Derby conqueror Hot Rod Charlie, but he needs the perfect pace scenario. I’m still trying to make up my mind whether to make a win bet on KING FURY based on his sensational work and gallops. It all depends on the price. I’d love to get at least 25-1 but preferably 30-1 or higher. He’s only had that one start, which I don’t like, and may be a bet-down horse with the buzz growing, so I will have to see how he’s being bet and will just hope for a big price. Worst case scenario is to play him underneath in the exotics, which is more logical.
Just a quick note on pace scenario: with Caddo River out there is no true speed horse, and none of the trainers of horses who do have early speed are planning on their horse being on the lead even though Rock Your World does have the early lick and the ability to run his opponents off their feet. Sadler, however, says he is looking for him to sit just off the pace. That leaves none other than Bob Baffert, who loves to use his horses’ speed and put them right in the mix up. If everyone hesitates he is more than happy to take the initiative. Even though Medina Spirit drew post 8 he is the inside speed and has to go from the start with so much tactical speed outside him. Medina Spirit’s main strength seems to be his willingness to battle in the stretch and not let horses get by him, so if he is going to win his best chance would seem to be to go to the front and try to hold off everyone.
As I said in the intro, I will be making updates through Saturday in the comments section depending on late observations and revelations over the next few days.
Those updates will include final thoughts on exotic bets because it is too early to commit to those. But in the exactas, using the safe horses Essential Quality, Rock Your World, Known Agenda, and Hot Rod Charlie on top, the horses to back them up at a good payoff will be, in addition to Dynamic One, O Besos, and Midnight Bourbon, the real bombs Keepmeinmind, King Fury, Bourbonic, Brooklyn Strong, Sainthood, Soup and Sandwich, and Super Stock. I need to see the odds on Medina Spirit to decide if it’s worth it. These are just $2 exactas for $20 or $1 exactas for $10, so you have to look for a monster payoff.
Just getting back to that Week 1 trifecta or exacta box of Essential Quality, Known Agenda, Medina Spirit, and Keepmeinmind, it’s not just a gimmick play based on the initial Derby Rankings. I think this is a pretty interesting combination of favorites, a mid-priced horse, and a huge bomb, all of whom have won Grade 1 or 2 stakes, with the shortest and longest priced horses having finished first and third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. You also have one horse who will be on or close to the pace, two horses probably around midpack, and one coming from far back. So we’ll give it a wild shot for a $1 trifecta box for $24. The key will be how Known Agenda beaks from post 1 and if he can settle into a good position without running into traffic down on the rail. I normally hate equipment changes for the Derby, especially with blinkers, but Keepmeinmind is sharp and sneaky and blinkers off isn’t as bad as blinkers on.
So I hope you’ve been able to digest all this. Right now the keys are my win bets on Dynamic One, O Besos, and Midnight Bourbon and possibly a small bet on King Fury and how much I want to bet on Known Agenda. I won’t know that until Saturday when I see his odds. And there are the four exactas with the bombs underneath, and of course the Week 1 trifecta box just for the heck of it. I am also looking at a Pletcher Oaks/Derby double of Malathaat with Dynamic One and Known Agenda. The rest will have to be sorted out, as I am totally baffled when it comes to the trifectas and may lay low on them. It could deprive me of a lifetime score, but more likely would cost me a month’s paycheck.
Good luck to everyone. It’s been quite a ride.
This is my wrap Steve:
1) The best horse won. He didn’t set easy fractions. It was the fastest half (46.70) around 2 turns for the 2 day period and the final 1/2 in 25 is why they couldn’t pass him. In the Alysheba, Maxfield was a comfortable 3 lengths off a 47.48 pace. (By the way Maxfield has finally arrived)
2) The interviews before and after the Derby complete the picture of what we cant see reading the PPs. After winning with Gamine, Johnny V essentially confirmed that he was going to try for the lead. How could that be a bad thing after Jackie’s Warrior and Dream Shake dueled one two in a 21.75, 43.68 and nobody closed? Future Hall of Famer Chad Brown was concerned about HM’s ability to get the 10 furlongs in another interview
3)It’s always amazing to me how many handicappers complain about how wide trips and ground loss. Brad Cox had more to say about EQ trying to bear out in the stretch than anything else. They don’t run horse racing in staggered lanes like the Olympics. Furthermore even though the track was playing relatively fairly note how Johnny V didn’t hesitate to do what he had to do with Malathaat in the Oaks.
4)Going forward, I will not hesitate to bet a horse in the one hole who has positional speed. The new gate has helped tremendously
5) If you have to take anything with you going forward is Brad Cox’s answer to can you imagine winning 7? He answered without thinking an emphatic “YES” I will definitely be back
6) Like has happened very often in the past Pletcher will be a factor in the Belmont.
A few more trends continued still after this KD:
*Tapit sire still doesn’t have a winner in the KD;
*Blue Grass Stakes still is struggling as a KD prep an not attracting top class quality (not good enough to win the KD);
*Pletcher horses running 9th place or worse continuous…
Any other?
*most drugged horse won
What happened with innocent until proven guilty? Sounds like a complete set up by someone outside the horse industry. MS has never used that drug which may be cause for severe legal action from the baffert team…
Yes he’s always being set up, poor guy
I have dealt with labs (non-horse)all the time. It’s unbelievable how inaccurate a lot of the test are; and the quality of some of the personnel who collect the samples need to be questioned. Happens all the time.
Time to change the triple crown…….no good horseman should run in 2 weeks……only the winner……….if you ran bad?…..ok….because this race didnt take alot out of you………..the preakness is always weak . Time to change the triple crown……..it is too easy to win the crown today…….
Yes, I am disappointed. Several days before the Derby I found myself becoming more and more endeared to Hot Rod Charlie. Have to hand it to Johnny V and Medina Spirit. When is the last time a thousand dollar colt won the Derby? Gotta love this colt’s backstory! It brings to mind California Chrome. Johnny V gave Medina Spirit the perfect ride.
A 20 horse field or in this case a 19 horse field is a challenge to these young, lightly raced colts. Every Derby I have watched more than one gets bumped, squeezed or is forced to run three or four wide to get into a good position.
There is no shame at all in the way Essential Quality and Hot Rod Charlie ran, they threw down their best effort and it just was not quite good enough on this particular day. Looking forward to a match-up of these 3 again.
Per Doug O’Neil, Hot Rod Charlie is skipping the Preakness and will pointed to the Belmont.
The big winner was that as far as we know, all came out of the race in good order including Soup & Sandwich (there were concerns when he was eased).
Don’t forget Mandaloun, whose rebound from the dismal Louisiana Derby was astounding. The Risen Star winner showed up yesterday and nearly won the race.
He must have found his favorite pair of mandalouns because he certainly did dance at this party.
LOL. And he had no need for a manzier.
His loss recently-always an aberration in my opinion. Knew horse had talent.
One note about handicapping the trainer. I have been friends with Baffert for 25 years and wrote his autobiography. I have been texting back and forth with him all year and he never once sounded excited about Medina’s chances of winning he Derby. It was always Life is Good then Concert Tour and then oh well weve got one left lets just give it a shot. Believe me he was not expecting this.
Thanks for all you do… I listened to your information on MS on 2 things; missing workout prior to SA Derby and your analysis of his gameness in his genes…I figured that MS would try hard for the lead.
Thanks Steve. I am a writer not an racing analysist so no surprise that I was surprised. But that’s good to know. I really expected that MS would be overtaken at the end. From a fan of racing, and writer’s, perspective, I thought Mr Baffert did the best he could to draw a connection to Seabisquit. And strictly from a fan of racing’s perspective, I was not disappointed that Medina held on at the end.
Steve, I hope we see your analysis of the race, and your thoughts on Known Agenda. I was very disappointed in his draw and his race. A bright spot for me on Derby Day was Jackie’s Warrior , an El Paso horse, who ran a great race in the Pat Day Mile, and we’re so proud of him.
There will be a column today but no analysis. You cant analyze what makes no sense
Lol. What a wacky Derby, but your thoughtful remarks on the Dervy trail were a pleasure to ponder.
As always, Steve, the prep races are the enjoyment. The Kentucky Derby, apart from the spectacle, is inevitably a let down. On to the next one…
Would you like my thoughts on Known Agenda? You can get 100 of them for one Haskin Thought at the currency exchange. As KA was the main focus of my Derby wagering yesterday, you can rest assured that my thoughts are unbiased and honest. 😉 He broke from the gate in good order and seemed to settle in a nice position, which appeared to be a midpack position as expected. Then Like the King on his outside seemed to intimidate him (“him” could be the horse or rider, or both). Regardless, he then had no excuse to not move forwardly. When asked entering the final turn, KA had no response. He just wasn’t good enough.
Was it not his day or is he the rare disappointing Florida Derby graduate? Like many of yesterday’s runners, there just wasn’t a lot to go on. He had one impressive stakes performance. His workouts prior to the Derby didn’t impress anyone, though it was said that he has never been an inspiring worker. I hope he comes out of the race in good shape so that we can see what kind of runner he really is.
Thanks for the pearls of wisdom, EddieF. I agree, tho I was grasping at straws there for a while to excuse his lackluster performance. Hopefully he’ll rebound. What a wacky Derby!
Medina Spirit — First winner since Super Saver (2010) to lose his last prep; first Florida-bred winner since Silver Charm (1997)
Mandaloun — First 2nd-place finisher since Bet Twice (1987) to have been off the board in his final prep.
It was the closest Derby finish since Giacomo (2005) won by the same ½-length margin over Closing Argument.
It was the third consecutive Derby in which the first-place finisher led gate to wire.
Eq might have been best……..HRC might have been best…..Mand might have been best……..it was CLOSE RACE!
The horse with the perfect trip won…….it doesnt matter who was best………bob won….
It was exciting. It may have been the closest 4-horse finish in Derby history. Certainly the closest in any of our lifetimes. The 1966 Derby had a 4-horse finish that was nearly as close.
Brad Cox had two who ran huge…BUT…stop complaining, Brad! Essential was sitting right off the pace, sure he was wide, but on dirt its nowhere near as important as turf, and I don’t know why that is, but MANY Derby winners came wide…and he was right there with 3/16 left in the race….better to just regroup, and come back and win….than to whine about losing ground, I thought Essentual was going to win, and he didn’t.
in the KD, i would think it would be expected to have a bit of trouble but champions do figure out how to win. Both Cox horses had all the chances to win, but were not good enough.
True, true, and true. 🙂 But all four top finishers have nothing to be ashamed about.
John Sadler is in shock—but I didn’t hear him whine….he just took off his suit and changed back into his “Revenge of the Nerds” tight fitting short sleeve button down shirt—and is going to try and win the Belmont–I think he can…
You know what they say about old age and cunning. But John Sadler will have a much better shot, I think, if he can get Rock Your World more race experience. Quickly.
So many times when BB “whines” about drawing post 1, or other dynamics-he gets a pass. Why? How exactly does that work?
Something has to be said about the Pletcher effect. His records is dismal at best. 4 more horses run 9th or worse making it a total of 33 horses he has ran that finished worse then 9th. He needs to re consider who he runs and change his program to not just run horses.
Pletcher would have run Caddo River in the Derby if he trained him. Meanwhile, Baffert brings one 3rd stringer and wins.
Yeah,he doesn’t place welfare of he horse first. Correct decision for CR skipping Derby.
I was SO disappointed in all his horses especially the two I liked.
Steve, in a race like the Kentucky Derby what percentage does luck play in winning? One colt wins and 19 or so don’t- the end. Lol.
Jeff, what trainer or owner wouldn’t have run any of these four colts in the Derby? It’s not like Pletcher knew they’d all finish poorly.
Chad Brown is a trainer who doesn’t just run horses. He understands that they aren’t good enough. Obviously he hasn’t won a KD but he eliminates unnecessary horses in the starting gate. Sainthood, any Wood Memorial horse? Just slow slow and more slow. KA was the only he horse he should’ve ran.
I’ll rephrase the question. What trainer, Chad Brown included, who has a healthy horse that won or ran a close second in a final DERBY PREP doesn’t run in the Ky Derby?
Five years ago, the aforementioned trainer brought two horses to the Derby: My Man Sam (second in the BG Stakes) and Shagaf (fifth in the WOOD MEMORIAL). Sam finished 11th and Shagaf didn’t finish.
Answer me this question: after pletcher results through the decades, do you think he’s in tune with his animals and the competition? I think he’s almost lost to be honest. Did he over evaluate the wood memorial when all so called experts said it was awful?
No even him for fact of 1 post.
If they decide to go in the Preakness…Essential Quality will be favored again….wide trip but they were lined up outside Medina, and like in the Lewis he turned them back….
Would you run RYW back in Preakness? Especially with CT on the engine…
I think they’re bringing him home…
no
No way
Top three finishers got dream trips but they earned them. Helium and Sainthood got dream trips too but were no match for these guys. O Besos had a great trip but again no match. Essential Quality ran furthest for sure and I have not looked at Trackus but I’m sure he did. Rough start and 4 wide left him a tad less to the wire, but more racing will decide. I question why Florent kept such a strong hold on Mandaloun, definitely lost some energy doing this. Looking at Johnny’s arms and Florent’s you see quite a different method employed. RYW’s gate maul was a terrible misfortune but I really thought Rosario would have better luck getting him going and I could not have been more wrong. Highly Motivated actually veered out into Super Stock who at the same time veered in towards Highly Motivate. Castellano reacted and yanked Highly Motivated hard left, right into RYW causing him to pinball with HQ and it kinda looked like Joel’s foot might have slipped out or nearly out of his stirrup. Anyway, it was game over. The conveyor belt of CD was unforgivable. I drizzled some tapatio sauce on my tickets as they went around the first turn knowing I would be eating them all. Gulp!
Lost it at your last line. Did they taste good?
Everything tastes good with Tapatio, and yet I really hope to avoid this indigestible hors d’oeuvre any time soon.
May you cash at Pimlico — from wherever you are.
Ironic that EQ from Post 14 and RYW from Post 15 had the kind of start that many were saying would be eliminated by not having a slanted auxiliary gate.
I’ve never felt it was the gate but rather the reactions that occur around you. In 2009, Friesan Fire who ironically had the chance to pick the 9 or 6 post chose 6. The 9 horse veered in drastically and driving the 8 and 7 into Friesan, stomping on his foot, tearing his hoof and scrapping his right front leg to pieces. Game over. Yesterday was the same. I noticed in the Blue Grass, EQ kind of veered out in his start so I was concerned about that but I did not expect to see what happened yesterday. I wonder if King Fury had not scratched if that would have made a difference to have him between RYW and Highly Motivated? Probably not but you never know.
Yeah…you just never know. Run the race again and different horses will have trouble.
“I never imagined last night I was going to be sitting here,” Baffert said at the media conference. “He’s a fighter, but the way he ran today, I didn’t know he had that in him.”
Neither did I.
Can’t help how the race was run….or wasn’t!…I think the top four 2021 Derby are going to make their mark….think the race will stand the test of time!
Rock’s sister She’s Our Charm is a favorite of mine, she also folds up in races sometimes…
The top 4 all ran well. It’ll be interesting to see if 2/3/4 come back in the Preakness.
Be interesting to see if Concert Tour does, too.
I’ll be surprised if he isn’t entered in the Preakness.
Just a prediction….that Essential will do the Preakness, not Hot Rod or Rock….O Besos ran HUGE…but he can’t get that last furlong, they need to keep him at 9 furlongs or less, but those four were BOOKING down the lane, one of the best Derbies I have seem (on TV), despite several bad trips there were four lined up down the lane! Do I think the best horse won? I think the best horse ran 17th.
Sheik Mo would never allow it. He nurtures his horses. Plus, as long as there are only two weeks between the Derby and Preakness, there will never be more than 3 or 4 horses from the Derby racing in the Preakness. In addition, there are usually enough fresh new hitters in the Preakness to scare off the tired runners from the Derby.
I’d take that bet on EQ running in the Preakness Matthew, but the Derby wiped me out. Sigh!
and run against Medina?
Owners are different.
keepmeinmind came from last…..to get 7th…..only closer that moved maybe hes returning to form
It was a mirage, PV. No horse made up ground on the winner. Some passed tired horses. Keepmeinmind was a perfect example. He was 13th after a mile, 6 1/4 lengths behind Medina. He finished 7th, 8 1/2 behind the winner.
Exactly!
Did anyone else think they were watching a replay of the War Emblem Derby? Soup and Sandwich couldn’t hold his position and faded badly, but the other top horses basically kept their order. O Besos was the only closer doing much in the stretch.
What happened to Midnight Bourbon? For a frontrunner who ended up toward the back of the pack, sixth place was not a bad result.
Similar to WE in that MS led gate to wire. That 2002 Derby was the only one in memory in which the 1/2/3 horses after a half mile finished in the same order. Yesterday, Mandaloun was third after a half mile, and HRC was fifth.
MB didn’t break well. Much like the expected co-pacesetter in 2002, Medaglia d’Oro. One thing I was right about…You can’t predict how horses come out of the gate. 🙁
Thanks Medina…..you made me steady…….darn it…….lost by 1……..
Personally, I simplified this race. Steve pointed out that MS missed workout(s) prior to the SA Derby, still ran a credible second. MS never been worse than second and lost to two monsters in LIG and RYW. MS came out of a key race in the Robert Lewis beating HRC, who came back and won the LD. Also, he was changing tracks which may have woken him up a bit. The race was similarly ran as the Robert Lewis. Also, you had the GOAT trainer, and an incredibly HOF jockey. 12-1 saved me for the day….
With one exception, the top eight finishers were ones that I had rather quickly eliminated. In a year when nothing has made sense, I probably should not be surprised. But one mistake I made with the runners-up was that I greatly underestimated the quality of the Louisiana horses. They fared very well with two in the top three and four in the top eight.
Steve, you were right about sire Protonico, as was the person who mentioned the new sire angle winning 5 times since the Newmannium.
Replay of many other Baffert derbies…..his hoss on lead before 1st turn, then merry-go -round. Ready to take my ball and go home
Me 2.
That was not the finish I was expecting, but what a race! I lost all of my Friday and Saturday live wagers (I should have saved my money!) but cashed for $4,857 in futures. If any of this awesome board comes to Las Vegas, dinner is on me!
Heat of the moment versus calculated risk? No future wagers for me — hey! maybe I should try it! — and Friday’s picks did dismally. Picks faired slightly better on Saturday, but the thing I still need to learn (if it can be learned) is when to go for the jugular and when and HOW to hedge my bets. Example: had a win bet on Col. Liam in the Turf Classic (race 11) and Domestic Spending in the exacta, but DIDN’t pair the two up. Duh.
As is always the case in the Derby, there were issues out of the gate. But after that it seemed like a cleanly run race. No horse seemed to have difficulty after the start.
After watching Rocks works,even in his races… he needs to be shook up and tapped a bit to get his attention like Umberto did … this jockey did nothing … the start was certainly not his fault … but … shake him up and get him back in it !
Thank you Steve for your column and all your hard work! I had fun following as I’m sure everyone else did. I followed you on Bloodhorse and found you here at Secretariat.com. Rocks start was the racing Gods I guess… you never know. I had $400 on him in Future Wager at 31/1. And I would have sent you a $10 ticket for dinner like I stated last week in your column! Good Night and God bless. I’ll tune in again next year early on !
Congrats to all of you winners out there !
Cheers!
EQ was clearly best. His performance in The Derby has sold me on this horse. A true class act.
Did you watch the race? EQ had all the chance but isn’t good enough. His figures showed that he didn’t improve from 2 to 3. HRC is better now..
I like EQ, he is a good horse, but he isn’t special. He will win some races but he is what he is. No excuses today though. RYW took the worst of the start, EQ came out ok.
raced wide both turns, check trakus
So a horse who wins 5 races and loses Derby-placing 4th isn’t “special”? Please!
No Excuses??? Are you blind? EQ got a bad start and bumped with RYW. he lost ground racing outside and came wide into the stretch rallying to finish just a length behind the winner. Despite his bad trip, he refused to give up and finished well.
Yes he did! EQ is a special horse.
I like EQ, but sorry, RYW got killed at the start by the 16 and EQ came out of that fine. RYW is the only one with an excuse out of that exchange. A “special” horse would have won this race. Arrogate was special and won in Dubai under much worse circumstances. That is the definition of “special”. Not being special doesn’t mean he isn’t a good horse. Like I said, he will win races but he doesn’t have the tactical speed to control a race and couldn’t run down a decent horse on the lead with reasonable fractions. Tell me what is special about him.
So it’s my imagination EQ ran WIDE FOR 2 TURNS?
Top 4 ran well. Rest of field, NOT well. End of story. Time to start watching the 2 year olds. 🙂
Had EQ enjoyed a clean trip, as well as not being so wide, he certainly would have been the winner- a 6/6 undefeated Ky Derby winner. Little else remains to be said.
RYW was the best animal in the race, but got buzz-sawed at the start. LIG is the best 3 year old by a long way…baffert might run 1st and 2nd in the Preakness. Belmont will be wide open…
Yes, sceptre, that’s how I saw it. Inevitably, an ugly race with luck crowning the winner.
Arrogate didn’t lose the ground that was EQ’s misfortune.
Lost to him by how much? Very little. Over the top statement. EQ was bumped in the beginning and travelled much further.
Yes sceptre, good performance, considering and the colt already has a future. Poetic Flare, winning the 2,000 Guineas for Jim Bolger was a wonderful moment. Mind you, the field for the 2,000 Guineas didn’t look that strong especially with St Mark’s Basilica heading for the Poule d’Essai des Poulains.
Yes, David, you’re right as happily he already does have a future at stud, and the breed should benefit for it. Lackluster 2,000 g but I have to admit that winner looked best and carried himself best throughout the running. None of my favorite fillies are competing in the 1,000
Yes, the 1,000 Guineas is without Snow Lantern, Pretty Gorgious, among others. Sacred might have the momentum, seems wide open.
Just as was in our Derby, I’m higher on the 1000 g 4th than I was prior to the race.
Agree, good run by Santa Barbara especially for the Oaks. They didn’t really sparkle, apart from Frankie Dettori. Ha ha Mind you, I think his statement about the ‘oldies’ is fair. The younger jockeys are very conservative, not willing to make mistakes for a daring ride. Not a stupid ride but more aggressive. Easy to say, I guess, when it’s not your horse though.
I got paid cuz I kept Mandaloun in the bunch–Cox said he had two live ones and he did—Mandaloun nearly won.
It sucks to lose the Oaks and the Derby both by less than a length. I dont know any of the major so called experts that got this derby right. Very disappointing when your horses dont bother to show up.
VET was right—Rock walked out of there and got shut off trying to get going….
The experience factor. All of the 3-race horses ran poorly.
Never underestimate Baffert. I had Medina Spirit in a trifecta with Hot Rod Charlie, but NOT Mandaloun. Ditto super: EQ, MS, HRC — and Brooklyn Strong. Oops.
This is why I don’t bet real money!
Congrats to all who cashed a few today! And thanks, hugs and kisses to Steve Haskin, who brought us all along for this delightful, bumpy ride.
Mandaloun! The horse I bet in the January FW and gave up on him by March. At least he made it exciting for me. Coming out of the turn, I thought he’d win.
You barely missed on Mandaloun Eddie. None of my FW even made the gate. I noticed that this years derby the top 3 were all close to the pace. The closers did not factor. The derby certainly seems to favor horses near the pace. Medina was overlooked and wired the field.
Yeah. That’s the modern Derby. Speed, speed, and more speed. There weren’t a lot of knocks against Medina. He just didn’t seem like a Derby winner to me. The more I know, the less I know. 🙂
Me too. But I liked his color. 😉
It’s the Florida sunshine.
#7 got me too. Didn’t have him in anything. Hated it for RYW, but that is his inexperience. Great race and what a day for Baffert
Me too but I had….. HRC 2nd and Mandaloun 3rd. If only…..
Bob is playing chess while everyone else is playing checkers!
No.
Don’t be a hater, it’s not a good look on you.
Excuse me! I’m not a bandwagon chaser! Don’t care how many times he’s won.
Rock got rocked at start … and just after they said EQ tends to veer out at the start … havnt seen replay yet but he was rocked … no chance 1 second into the race 🙁
Just saw replay close up of Rocks start … I believe the bump was hard enough to knock the jockeys foot out of the stirrup !
Johnny V. ready to hang it up? Hardly, The Oaks yesterday and the Derby today were some of the best rides of his fabulous career. Well done, Johnny, well done!
Yet again nobody closed. no one did anything. Another boring speed Derby.
Yep, kind of disappointing. Looked like most were struggling. Or just didn’t fire. On to the Preakness.
You’re right Steve. Not the type of Derby that I would have liked to see. I mean the fractions were quick and honest….. why can’t they close against that pace?
How come BB is the only one that understands…Get my horse to the front near the rail and see if he is good enough! I had a feeling this was going to happen which is why I threw in a late tri wheel. If HRC comes in 2nd I win. But oh well.
It is a race to the lead at this point. It seems no one wants to challenge early, just settle in. That said, maybe this crop just isn’t that great and doesn’t have the speed. RYW was taken out early and his inexperience took him completely out. Or maybe he isn’t that fast either.
That said, great story on Medina Spirit and all props to him for taking his shot and it paying off!
I totally agree. You won’t necessarily agree with me, but I think it’s the Bob Baffert effect, he’s made racing boring but profitable for some. He has the setup and no other trainer can focus in on winning the Derby and Breeders’ Cup classic like he does. Everyone seems to play along.
I watch races back east, jockeys let the front runners walk the dog a LOT, they did today….out west a 5-horse field gets a pace battle!
Out west Medina Spirit let Rock Your World go to the front in that last prep.
I think MS would have let RYW have the lead today as well if it had presented itself. Of course, RYW was taken out at the start and never factored so Medina was sitting there the whole race wondering where everyone was. You could tell by all Bafferts interviews that he was genuinely shocked MS won the race like he did and none of the big horses truly challenged him.
My favorite horse, Dynamic One, didn’t show up, so that was a great disappointment. I did have a win ticket on the oaks/derby double. Of course I lost the trifecta; Mandaloun showed up instead of Dynamic One. Very few people agree with me, but I don’t like the points system; many horses are lightly raced and still get in with one hit the board race.
My $200 win wager on Rock–nada! My $2 tro Rock over five–nada! My 5-horse tri saver box—came one, two, three, four, five—$848 for $30…..
I know he didn’t have a clean break but that ride??????
Lost all hope at the break
I know I’m greedy but….COULDN’T Mandaloun get up!!!
The Exact-five $593,000
Just about all of my Derby money LOST, my 5-horse tri box was a SAVER, in case Rock didn’t fire, and in deep stretch I saw I was golden, I was wrong about my pick to win…but right about my others….today had some truly close finishes…even the great Gamine was close….one length for Gamine is an off race!
Wow! I didn’t expect how the race unfolded early. Finally we got an exciting 4-horse finish.
Good for the Florida breeding industry.
Baffert….my god!
Okay Eddie,wrong about my selection EQ.
I had him in exactas. At least he ran. Not my KA or your RTW. I have to watch the replays, probably more than a few times. Looked like KA had a good break but was then crowded by a horse outside. I don’t think RYW had a clean start. Another Baffert is really getting tiresome. LOL
Stated today on TRC my selection was EQ. Shocked!
good effort……..cant be mad……..bob is good
Thankfully, I played MS and RYW. Bob is the GOAT! Not even close…
And do not forget that LIG is the best of the 3 year old crop by a long way….
No goat! Just an aging one!
Funny. Old GOAT! Seriously though on the big stage nobody is even close. Pletcher-no show again; Asmussen?
Stated over ten yrs ago Steve A. wouldn’t win a derby. How am I doing?
Had chance 6 yrs ago to meet him,told my friend wasn’t interested.
I’m sure he was devastated. SMH
Not the point wise guy! He mismanaged RA.
Meaning SA mismanaged RA. As for BB,I’m well aware he didn’t lose any sleep over it.
Give me a break!
Ron MacAnally has the one season to Candy Ride, and he has the one broodmare….he keeps the fillies and he sells the colts and here he is. ..
Great trainer and even better individual. Unlike some trainers/owners he carries a moral compass.
Here are my expected Derby bets, pending any peculiar occurrences in the saddling area, post parade, or my brain. I said I’d keep it simple.
Major win bet: Known Agenda (currently 11-1)
Minor win bets: Super Stock (currently 33-1) and Bourbonic (currently 28-1)
Exactas: Essential Quality over Known Agenda, Super Stock, Bourbonic
Known Agenda over Essential Quality, Super Stock, Bourbonic
And last, but least, I have a surviving KDFW1 bet on Mandaloun at 42-1.
I wonder if there’ll be anything to comment on after the race. 😉
Riders up!
maybe the weakest derby ever?
Weak, but maybe real exciting
Not weak,hear same tune every Derby.
Stated for over a week-between RYW & EQ. Nod goes to EQ.
I’m boxing the three West Coast horses and throwing in Like The King
202.2
Is it OVER? 😮
My bet is in…
.50 Trifecta (5x11x11) = $225
9,10,14,15,17
1,5,6,8,9,10,12,14,15,17,18
1,5,6,8,9,10,12,14,15,17,18
Good luck to all!
Some big prices on some good horses with 4 hrs. to post. O Besos and Dynamic One at 38-1. Known Agenda at 11-1. I will use those 3 as well as EQ and RYW in my TRI and SF bets. I will use HRC defensively in my TRI and SF. I bet the P5 starting with R10. 2,3,4,5,9/1,3,6,7/1,11,15/4/1. I also bet the Pick4 starting with R11. 1,3,6,7/1,6,11/14,15/4,7,8/1,7,9. Safe trips to all. Thanks for all the info. and passion that you put into your Derby rankings Steve.
If Rock falters, I’ll be looking for a medium sized chestnut with a small rear—a little like Chrome! “O………BESOS! Where ARE you??!!…..”
Hi Steve,
Any updates to your picks at this point? You mentioned you would post something Sat morning? Thanks!
Normalcy returns to the tote board … before Mack’s next bet. EQ 5-2, RYW 9-2, HRC 6-1, KA 10-1, HM 11-1 etc
Wonder what the true odds would be without the gigantic bet?
At this point, probably not too much difference. “True” odds might be as much as a full point lower for all the major contenders. That $500k bet represents about 7% of the current win pool.
I recall The Big Cap many years ago….the owner of a gray horse whose name started with a “U”, I think….was 9-1 at the gate, he made a $900,000 wager and horse dropped to 3-1—and won!
I’m hearing from the Thorograph guy they aren’t moving Known Agena OUT, rather they are moving the outside horses IN one post, there will be no horse coming out of post 20
If true, that’s strange. They never did that with the old gate(s). Maybe they figure that the previous disadvantage with Post 1 has been NEGATED by the new gate and position. We’ll see.
Sounds strange to me as well….
Happy Derby Day 🙂
Good luck to all !
Same to you, JC. I wish that all fellow Haskinites cash tickets today. And safe trips for all runners.
Aunt Pearl (Brad Cox) and Kalypso (Bob Baffert) both bleed yesterday with no Lasix.
Good Luck to everyone playing Stakes races @ CD today with no Lasix, hopefully your horse don’t bleed.
Always a concern
This really is a joke……..your horse runs bad……and you wonder “did he bleed”…..you look for it……and guess what?….you find it…….excuse………if you scope all of them?…..do you know how many you would find?
Thanks for NEVER indicating concern for ANY horse. Classy!
Two megabombs I am gong to save on and put in the exactas are KEEPMEINMIND and BROOKLYN STRONG. Two grade 2 winners with back class who have had schedule setbacks but could be ready to pick up s piece of it at gigantic odds.
Your back-class reasoning is sound! Good luck, Steve.
Happy Derby Day, everyone! Thank you Steve and Secretariat.com for providing your wonderful insights and this forum. I’ve really enjoyed reading your column, and everyone’s comments as well. Good luck to all!
Thanks very much. Have a great day.
Hear, hear! Greatness
Barring any further scratches, I will make the following wagers on the Derby……
$5 EXACTA BOX: 1-9-11-14-15 ($100)
$0.50 TRIFECTA:
1st) 1-9-11-14-15
2nd) 1-9-11-14-15
3rd) 1-5-6-7-9-10-11-14-15-20
$50 WIN: Dynamic One
$30 WIN: Known Agenda
Currently, thanks to Mattress Mac, the odds are 53-1 on Dynamic One and 20-1 on Known Agenda. I hope this betting pattern continues up to post time. I mean, this is better than watching the stock market. Keep laying it on, Mac! You da man.
The cost for my TRIFECTA ticket is $80. Total wagers amount to $260.
I like that $50 on Dynamic as well as $30 on Known Agenda. Jose Ortiz had a good day; he rode a 16-1 longshot to victory. Dynamic One has a good shot with Jose aboard.
Thanks, Mary. Yes, both Ortiz brothers are riding to top form now and they are anxious to win their first Derby. I messed up with one wagering omission…… I forgot to play the Pletcher Oaks/Derby double. Argh!!!
I played the Oaks/Derby double. My Todd Pletcher horse won, so now I’m waiting for the derby. I almost forgot to place the bet; I did it 10 minutes before the race.
There’s only about $2 million in the win pool right now, and a quarter of it was ONE bet! If 2019 is a guide, we should see a final pool of more than $40 million. Craziest tote action I’ve ever seen in the Derby.
Yea, Eddie, I got the feeling that we’re in for a bumpy ride with the tote as Mattress Mac said that he will bet with both fists at spaced intervals during the day. Almost like watching election returns. LOL
Sorry if this already mentioned … getting caught up.. King Furry scratch ? A little more room for everyone …
FWIW, the CD main track was not speed friendly today, 9 dirt races and only one race, favorite Shesharesthedevil, went wire to wire. Most winners came from mid to back of the pack. We’ll see if that trend continues tomorrow.
I thought so too, first race I watched didn’t seem fast up front and closers ran past. Interesting what that means for the Derby.
To give you an idea what derby odds will be……..EQ pays 14…..RYW 19…….KA and Charlie 31……
Looks like you were probably correct in assessing HR Chuckie Cheese as the 3rd choice in the wagering. What are you a pro? No, I’m an amateur. (Basic Instinct)
“You’re in this mess…..cause you’re in this mess”. Robert De Niro, ( Midnight Run)
“If there’s no BETTING….then there’s no RACING!”…..Dr J trotter, in “Let it Ride”…..
“Holler…but don’t hit.” — Mr. Ed
Funny movie!
HE may be 4th…..
My free roll weekend just got another free roll…….malathat 30 dollar double with charlie….
My head says Malathat is a cinch…..but went with Champangne……she steadied in a box 3 times, moved too fast….it was only after 2 races…..and her 1st route…….she almost beat her…..wps Pass the champangne
malathat, champagne / hot rod double
Congrats! I bet on Search Results because you said she had BAD SIGNS. 😉
she lost
Really? Good signs. $6.80 to place…losing by a neck as the third choice. I didn’t lose. You said ” ..dont think she is very sound……i expect her not to last.” The Bubbly, on the other hand, …. Thought you’d be happy that you’re alive in the KO/KD double.
continue to bet her then…….
Oh…you meant that you didn’t expect her “to last” in her CAREER. My bad. Ha! Anyway, I didn’t really bet on her because of what you said. It was solely based on handicapping.
I hit the Oaks Trifecta with a nice 11 to 1 ROI… the strategy of finding a long shot to third place worked… !✌
With Malathaat there it was an easy call though…
Great Sportsmanship shown by Irad Ortiz who effusively congratulated Johny V right after crossing the finish line…
Who you like in the Derby for that trifecta?
I am wheeling Essential Quality and Rock Your World with 7 other horses (including KA, SS and MS)
plan on adding the following super longshots for third slot:
Helium
Mandaloun
O Besos
and possibly Keepmeinmind ….
I might include a speed horse there depending on the Track Bias (favoring frontrunners) and on my budget swelling from any winning ticket in the undercard…
Just catching up before the race. Thanks so much, Nelson, for sharing your picks! I’m going with an accupunture trifecta — my accupunturist is from Brooklyn so she has $10 on Brooklyn Strong. I’ve boxed him with Hot Rod Charlie (my pick to win) and Medina Spirit, because, you know, Bob’s horses tend to run well.
Also have a 5-piece super with all the favorites and a bunch of other exotics as well.
Next time, don’t be surprised if Search Results takes revenge. Very unlucky for Pass the Champagne but that’s racing.
Nice bet, Nelson. I threw out the show horse early on. But I just had a W/P bet on SR. Crazy odds for the Derby. Only about $40 million more to be bet in the win pool. Ha!
NIce call, I did the same. Had 3,6,10,12 first and second with 11,14 third. Tri’s were paying well. Top two spots easy, but good guess work on 11,14.
For the love of God….First my top horse Life is Good gets hurt. Then my next horse draws the one hole and now my third horse gets scratched because of a fever! If I owned a funeral parlor nobody would die!
Blake, don’t worry about the post for Known Agenda. Assuming he breaks well (and that applies to the other 18 horses, too), he’ll be okay. If he’s good enough, he can win. I think you’ve already decided that he’s good enough to win. Good luck!
Perhaps you should relay your opinion Eddie to Pletcher cause he wasn’t exactly doing cart wheels after drawing the rail. If i’m incorrect,will own it.
You are not incorrect, Mike. Pletcher was definitely not doing cartwheels after the draw. 🙂 But he doesn’t need me to tell him that if KA is the best horse tomorrow, Post 1 won’t hurt him. How many Derby winners had some good fortune in getting to the finish line first? A lot, I’d say.
Obviously you have good knowledge of racing,but as you’re aware- 35 yrs since a horse from the rail prevailed.
That is true, Mike. But it’s a very different gate and position now. New ballgame.
In addition to the new gate, the scratch will move him out one spot, correct? I’m not worried about the post, with Irad and little to no speed to his outside, he should have room for a good position…..I hope.
You can have a good post and still get squeezed, so no one is promised a perfect start. (just ask Pass The Champagne!)
Correct…first stall will be left open. The one post still has its drawback, but it certainly isn’t the kiss of death that it was before last year.
Will come back here and own it,but my guess is he doesn’t hit the board.
We’re all guessing, Mike. And we’re all usually wrong. 🙂
Can’t argue your point Eddie.
Excellent point, Mike.
Pletcher mentioned he started weeping after Known Agenda drew the rail. Baffert’s horses usually draw, but not this time.
Known Agenda lacks early speed from the gate, in which case Irad Ortiz Jr. could be facing a wall of horses going into the first turn. A very troubled trip could be in the works for Known Agenda. Before the draw I considered KA as my 2nd top contender in the Derby, but not any more. I remained convinced that Rock Your World is the horse to beat. ROCK ON!
Good luck with your Derby pick Mike.
Appreciate it Bill. Stated for a week, between the champ and RYW. Both posts-14,15 aren’t bad.
Hello Steve, I decided to use HRC defensively in my TRI and SF bets. He drew well, has tactical speed and analysts and bettors seem to like his chances . Here’s my final Top6. #1 RYW #2 EQ #3 KA #4 Dynamic One #5 O Besos #6 HRC. I will use my top 5 in the P4. Safe trips to all.
Good luck, Joe! You have a couple in there that can make it very profitable for you.
Thanks Eddie. Good luck on your bets tomorrow. I will post my late P4 tomorrow before the Turf Classic.
Mattress …..or someone just bet half a million on EQ……from 5-1 to 3-5
Best stimulus payment yet. The odds are awesome now. Too bad we can’t lock them in. But no matter what it will help and we will get good odds.
The mattress guy just made his bet. KA now 3-5.
EQ, I mean.
yep
Odds on all others doubled. He said he might bet early AND late.
Known Agenda went from 11-1 to 22-1. I wish there were bookmakers
LOL. This is going to be a crazy 27 hours. I think the big bet was only (ONLY!) a half million. He’s holding so much more. Plus he said he may hedge his EQ bets with other wagers.
Me too Steve, our off-track betting Sports Bar just went silent. Our governor ordained that Oregon was at “extreme risk” and shut down all bars & restaurants. Restaurants are take out only.
No place to bet, oh well maybe I will save a couple bucks. As much as I like him I wouldn’t Essential Quality at 3-5.
I don’t however feel he will stay there at those odds.
All these longshots, betting combinations and hunches, I am becoming nuts by the minute. Although I can’t bet now I am sticking with what my gut says.
I’d doubt you’d get a bookmaker taking 22 -1 on Known Agenda. Lol. Amusing though.
King Fury spike a fever and is out of the KD.
really?
Yes and also has an elevated WBC.
Hate this. I really liked King Fury’s chances in this race. Hope he gets healthy.
You just can’t help yourself from trolling even here?
Never fails!
It’s 3:20 and you can still bet on him.
I believe King Fury ran 2 weeks ago, it is asking a lot to have a young inexperienced horse come back that quickly.
Talent or no talent a 20 horse field will spook many of these horses and perhaps throw them off of their game.
King Fury will have other fish to fry, don’t rush him. He could be a real good one.
Enjoy your comments,especially on the other racing site.
During my perusal of Formulator past performances, I noticed the Timeform pace figures for the first time. They give a number for early speed and one for late speed. Rock Your World has a whopping 132 early pace figure, but what most caught my eye was Keepmeinmind’s late pace figure of 114. If Rock can duplicate that number tomorrow, he’ll be hard to catch. By the same token, Keepmeinmind may be closing late (that is, if he isn’t 50 lengths behind after 6 furlongs).
Judging by how I’m doing today — not as bad as Edzo on the NBC Sports broadcast — but missing horses I liked while betting safer plays. I have Pauline’s Pearl in the Oaks if anyone wants to avoid her!
She’s 20-1 in the ML. Go for it!
Medina Spirit has a pretty good early pace rating, too. Keepmeinmind COULD be 50 lengths behind with that 66 early pace number.
Good luck!
Finally have a winner (Fast Boat). Unfortunately had him in the exacta with Fiya.
You had the winner! That’s what matters. Right? I came out about even for the day. It was fun. Texting with my horse-crazy cousin in Texas (he had 3 winners in 7 bets) and keeping tabs on the Haskin blog. Onward to tomorrow…
Thank You very much for your usual EXCELLENT analysis
Followed Steve H for quite some time now, I think he has this one nailed.
Dynamic One W/P, and keyed in the exotics.
Thanks for another year of your insight and commentary!
KING FURY SCRATCHED
official tomorrow
Question: How did Rock Your World get his name?
Answer: Mike Talia co-owns RYW with Kosta Hronis, explained how RYW’s name came about. In a conversation with Talia, trainer John Sadler stated, “I think he’s going to be the best horse you’ve ever owned. So come up with a big name. It has to be big, because this horse could be really special”. Talia said, “Ok John, you want a name that’s going to rock your world. right? Sadler replied, “yes”. Talia said, “well that’s it”. Sadler replied, “what is”? Talia replied, “Rock Your World”. True story.
That’s how Abbott & Costello would have come up with a name.
Don’t give up your day job EddieF, you’ll never make it as a “Stand Up Comic”.
Bill Dawson,
You take every joke as a personal affront even when it has absolutely nothing to do with you. You appear to have NO sense of humor. Won’t stop me from my appointed rounds, though.
BTW, who’s on first?
EddieF
Just for clarification, I don’t take your “jokes” personal. And, yes, I do have a sense of humor, but quite frankly, your jokes lack humor, IMO. By all means, please continue posting your alleged jokes. It’s very possible there are others on this blog that get an occasional laugh, but I just don’t see the humor. Sorry EddieF.
Have a nice day, and good luck with your Derby bets. 🙂
Same to you, Bill. No offense taken. Some people understand the joke and may laugh. Some may understand the joke and think it’s not so funny. Very few, though, have trouble understanding the joke but then behave like a heckler. It’s just impolite and makes you look bad. You might not have gotten the reference to Abbott and Costello (“Who’s on First?”) because by the 1940s you had given up on comedy.
If you recall, I posted a comment a week or so ago that you and pro vet would make a good team, in a comedy act, like Bud Abbott and Lou Costello. My only concern was who would be the straight man, and who would be the stooge. At first I thought pro vet could be the “Straight Man” and you could be the “Stooge”. But, on second thought I would think the reverse would work better. You could be “Straight Man”, because you’re not funny enough to be the “Stooge”.
BTW, growing up in the “50’s” I saw most of the Abbott and Costello movies, so I’m well aware of the “Who’s on First” routine. Another thing, it’s clear that you are the “Heckler”. Get real.
Despite his faults (and we all have them), PV at least has a sense of humor. To quote, uh….YOU: Don’t give up your day job. You’ll never make it as a casting director.
Hey!…..It’s Derby Day. Pick a winner!
I’ve already got the winner, Rock Your World, at 31-1, in Pool 5. In addition, I’ve got RYW boxed with ALL, in my $2.00 exacta wager, which will produce some pretty hefty payouts. If O Besos, at 50-1, were to win, and RYW finished 2nd, the payout for my exacta wager would be $7,959.00!
BTW, with respect to your “jokes”, try and be a little more original. Using punch lines from other comedians (who’s on first) just doesn’t cut it in the comedy business. Now I’m off to the OTB facility, with high hopes of having a great Derby Day.
So chin up EddieF, keep working on those jokes.
Thanks, Steve! I think this year I”m going completely on gut and making only token bets.
Hot Rod taking EARLY money….down to favorite at 4-1…
PV bet the farm!
Lol !
Is there that much money in beets?
LOL. Yes indeed, unless you gamble away the profits.
The odds keep changing, now at 9/2, wouldn’t count on it ending like this.
Too early, but not surprising.
WHAT DID THE PRO TELL YOU?
he will be 3rd fav…..6-1
I said it first. I can prove it. Every good point you ever made you got from me. 😉 🙂 😉 🙂
Two hypotheticals:
If you had not studied in great detail the performances of Derby runners for the past 4 months, and just today looked at the PPs for the first time, would you come to a different conclusion?
If the expected heavy favorite EQ were not in the race (due to illness, injury, or nonexistence), would the post-time favorite be a colt with just one dirt race in his résumé?
No, and no.
Davids, which horse do you think would be the favorite?
Hot Rod Charlie
Stradivarius. Just sayin’.
Good luck to everyone. Looks like perfect weather on both days. Steve, I think your Week 1 trifecta is the stronger. For what it’s worth, I like Search Results, Travel Column, Pauline’s Pearl, and Pass the Champagne in the Oaks while in the Kentucky Derby Essential Quality, O Besos, Midnight Bourbon, and Hidden Stash.
Bob Baffert has Triple Tap in race 13 on Saturday which I find interesting, hopefully, the colt runs well.
That allowance race is loaded.
Steve, do you find it odd that Baffert has TT in a 6.5f race following the 7f debut?
Actually, yes.
Exactly Steve, should Triple Tap win is the Woody Stephens Stakes the next step?
There’s a very good chance that Joel has Rock Your World in the clear and in 3rd place…..without urging circles top two on the 2nd turn, then wins by 7 eased up…
By 7 lengths???? Who do you think he is? Mine That Bird? 😉
My favorite scene from “50-1″….when Chip Wooley is leaving the banquet, and he hears Bob B telling everyone there’s horses from all over the world in the Derby that year….EVEN New Mexico—and the crowd breaks out into laughter, as Chip boards the elevator….
Mine That Bird is truly a Horse Racing treasure, at the front of his stall should be his Racing Form pps for his Derby—inviting everyone if they could “see” an 8-length winner!
That was a good one. I wonder if it really happened.
Well Steve, now comes the hard part, how to construct exotic wagers, (especially the superfecta).
I believe most of the regulars on your blog would agree on the top 5 Derby contenders, namely; Known Agenda, Hot Rod Charlie, Essential Quality, Rock Your World and Highly Motivated. Their respective odds reflect that contention. Obviously, there are several long shots that look enticing, such as Sainthood (50-1), O Besos (20-1), Mandaloun (15-1), Medina Spirit (15-1), Midnight Bourbon (20-1), Dynamic One (20-1), Helium (50-1), Super Stock (30-1) and Soup and Sandwich (30-1).
That said, I will sink or swim with Rock Your World. I plan on keying RYW on top, in most of my exotic wagers, with a combination of top contenders and long shots mixed in, underneath. I’m in full agreement with the top three you listed in Week 15, (RYW, Known Agenda and Essential Quality). In my main super, I’ll key those three on top, in the first three slots, with ALL underneath in the 4th slot, (cost: $102.00). In other supers, I plan on keying RYW on top with top contenders and long shots (in $24.00 wagers). In addition, I’m going to take shot at the Super Hi-5, keying RYW on top with contenders and long shots underneath in the 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th slots.
Good luck with your wagers.
Safe trips to ALL.
Bill:
Best of luck with your wagers: hope you nail the Super!
Thanks biggy312, good luck to you as well.
ROCK ON!
Man, I really like all of Brooklyn Strong’s races. Just keeps gets stronger and stronger in the lane every time. I know a win is unlikely and a rookie jockey isn’t ideal, but I have to include in my trifecta’s.
Great…..to be on a free roll this weekend….had a good hit…..Also had a bet on the last race at CT………i tried to beat the 2-5 fav……..the fav lost the jockey for a moment, he somehow got back on……..rushed up, checked behind a horse that stopped…..and almost beat me…..lost by a head…….it was impossible…..
I dont think ive seen a horse overcome that much…..and almost win…….i dont deserve this win……watch replay of last race tonight at CT
I’m only betting HRC w/p/s am i allowed to bet just one horse?
“am i allowed to bet just one horse?”
To offer informed legal advice, I would need to know the state in which you reside.
I believe the state is confusion, so it’s not legal advice that is needed here. Maybe a juice box?
I’ve been to that state often. It’s not as bad as it sounds.
Really appreciate your breaking down the Thorograph work patterns. Mandaloun looks the part of a Derby winner and has been working great. I’m throwing out his last race. Also love King Fury but question his foundation. I’m usually fairly confident (to a fault) with my Derby selections but this year I’ll be boxing and wheeling. Will also make a few win bets on some long shots.
Which horses have shown a quick turn of foot? Not early speed but shows they can quicken when asked?
Sainthood for sure. Watch his recovery in the Jeff Ruby.
Lots of you know what is hitting the wall about Sheikh Mo. All over the website. NY times, Yahoo, etc/ Old news but of course coming out now
If the best angle that the New York Times can come up with to tie into the Derby weekend or Derby fever is a piece about the shiek’s missing daughter then the New York Times is more pathetic than I thought. Please let’s keep the Derby Experience about the great horsemen and horsewomen who have trained and ridden these majestic creatures into the deserving champions that they are.
Shoot the messenger.
LOL!
Just another sign of this wacked out world we have to live with. Somebody on that morning work show didn’t want them singing My Old Kentucky Home as they considered it racist.
I’ll sing it and like every year I get that lump in my throat and then tears come streaming out.
If you don’t your just not human.
Somebody…somewhere…will say just about anything you can imagine. But that must have been a SLOW workout day. 🙂
The original lyrics could never be used, they would be entirely too offensive today. But it is interesting to note that at the time it was written, Frederick Douglas felt the song provided empathy for the toil and grief of slave life, and thus created a more sympathetic understanding of the conditions of slavery. He felt the song had it’s place. It conjures up duel imagery for different groups so I get the divide. The adjusted lyrics certainly help by making the losses and sentiments more universal, but as Mr. Douglas points out, it was never intended to be a racist song. Times change and so do the words with which we speak, but sad is the day when we are judged by that alone, and not our intent.
True. Just look at the 3-letter word in the second line, the meaning of which (unfortunately) has been rendered obsolete by modern usage.
Not that there’s anything wrong with that.
No. Not at all! 🙂
Thank you Steve for everything you do, it truly means a great deal! I’m partial to horses out of Smart Strike mares so I’m playing Dynamic One and Hidden Stash. Good luck and take care.
Thank you Kevin. Good luck to you
Yes! Thank you Steve for all of this. It makes the Kentucky Derby 1000x’s more fun for me.
I don’t know how many of these top choices can get 1 1/4 miles before the tank empties, so that’s my angle.
Known Agenda and Sainthood in .10 trifectas with all. Each ticket is $102.60. Chance for a big score. Never say never. Good luck everyone.
Known Agenda>All>All
All>Known Agenda>All
All>All>Known Agenda
Sainthood>All>All
All>Sainthood>All
All>All>Sainthood
Minimum on tri’s is $.50. I like the strategy.
there are no 10 cent trifectas . 50sent tri’s and $1 supers
Ah crud :/
You can learn something every day if you try. Look up the word “mandaloun” in Wikipedia.
Indeed. I just surmised Mandalouns were the masculine of Pantaloons. You know, MC Hammer, Vanilla Ice dance pants.
LOL. I like your idea better.
Steve,
Thanks for your insights. They are very helpful. Any thoughts on Mandaloun other than what you previously stated in your last ranking ?
Looking forward to your updates.
Good luck.
Physically and training he looks awesome. But how hes going to rebound off the La. Derby who can tell?
“It’s a chance worth taking if the price is right.” -Steve Haskin, April 18, 2011
So said you about Animal Kingdom and the price was right.
Steve, Thank you for continuing to expend so much energy and time for us horse lovers and fans.
This years thoughts:
I like the 15 and 17. I will not let the 6,7,8, or 16 beat me (Animal Kingdom was another 16, and so was Monarchos 20 years ago)
I like your Oaks/Derby Pletcher double but why not a Pletcher “Father/Son/Holy Ghost” Pick 3 with Col. Liam?
Thank you for doing that research. Seems like ages ago. Sure you can throw Col Liam in there too
Watching Hot Rod Charlies last two works and his stiff open gallops the past two mornings I think he’s coming into the race in great shape. I will have to put him on top of my exactas with a bunch of longshots.
I like to call that action “soldiering.” It’s sraight business time.
Straight…his jogs. Some of us used to call it that. Anyway, the colt has it between the ears. He does. He does. He about broke out into the hobby a few times. Sorry to mess up your wager post as I do my best Farley/McCartney bit.
I take it that in regard to gallops, “stiff” in this case is a rare but flattering use of the word. 🙂
Stiff is never flattering. Interesting interpretation. Lol
Thanks Steve. More to ponder. Watched the live Morning works show again this morning. Gate schooling for EQ and a bit restless. Then they took off the blinkers and went for his usual gallop. Big excitement was the mama possum that enjoys crossing the track in the morning.
They did announce Ava’s Grace scratched in the Oaks but no changes in the Derby. They gave their picks and some agree with you others don’t. I never bet until just before the race. Like you limited funds. Long as I break even I’m good.
Sealed and sloppy track this morning but it should dry out ok for tomorrow and Saturday.
EQ win puts him in elite company winning the Derby undefeated. None of these colts haver raced together in such a large group and never will again. Who ever does win will face fresh faces at the Preakness. May they all come home safe and sound.
Steve,
Always appreciate your insights and especially your observations on which horses look like standouts physically factoring in their Derby week appearance and development from the winter and 2yo year. Wondering if the horse that looks most dappled out should be my betting angle, lol! Would appreciate your thoughts there!
Secondly, hoping to get your take on Hot Rod Charlie’s TG sheet pattern? As soon as O’Neill took him off the turf and added blinkers, his pattern looks almost identical to Nyquist for me. HRC v Nyquist = similar 2yo top at Keeneland in the BC Juvenile, then essentially paired that top in his 2 starts this year. Nyquist followed that up with his best race and a new top (0 I believe) in the Derby. Seems like HRC is a bit of an enigma for a lot of handicappers, but O’Neill seems to have him gearing up for his biggest race, + I think Flavian Prat is perhaps the strongest and best rider HRC could have hoped for – arguably as Rosario and Irad are great too. At what I anticipate to be 8-1 – 12-1 odds range, I think HRC is a must use for me in all my verticals.
Hard to tell with dapples. To me they mean a lot if a horse is just now getting dapples. If he’s always had them or for a long time then I dont pay as much attention to them. I dont know what Nyquists T-Grapg numbers were. RC did improve but they havent improved since the Breeders’ Cup. I’m not sure what to make of that or what hes going to do. But I love the way he’s training
I think EQ probably finishes somewhere in the money but I’m leaving him off in hopes of a higher payout. I’m going to do a Tri box ..Known Agenda, RYW, O Besos, Hidden Stash and King Fury.
KA isn’t going very far from the #1 post. His chances are nil.
I remember when asked about his name, Paul Reddam said he used to say to his wife “I’ll Have Another” of her cookies…..I wonder what the owner of the #1 horse will say, if he wins ….” Well…..there have been many agendas in my time, but I KNEW one, it was my “Known Agenda”…..eh?
Mr. Reddam needs to leave the naming to someone else. 🙂
On the contrary, it is the best answer to your bartender joke posted earlier!
And at night……he says to his wife…………… “here comes Hot Rod charlie………………hey……you set that one up too well……..
We’re so brilliant!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
“O Besos! O Besos! O Besos!”….”HUH?”….MY name is CHARLIE!”
Essential Quality and Irad Ortiz…oh, I mean Known Agenda 🙂 I’ll fill the box with Keepinmind.
Steve,
First and foremost, I like so many others here, would like to thank you for arriving on our shores mid winter in your yellow submarine, and taking us all to Pepperland to shake off the winter blue meanies that plague us in January. It’s always a colorful adventure passing through all the regions(Stakes races) on our way to Pepperland(Louisville) where even the meanest of blue meanies will eventually bloom to roses. Don’t ask me who deserves the role of Jeremy Hillary Boob Ph.D. I’ll let everyone decide for themselves. All together now……
Time to throw down. I have one of my supers figured out and it’s all about history repeating. And if you have never seen Shirley Bassey performing with the Propellerheads singing this song(history repeating), do yourself a favor and youtube it now.
1st Super History Repeating
RYW with Highly Motivated with Known Agenda, Essential Quality, Medina Spirit with Soup, Saint, Helium, O’Besos, Dynamic One, King Fury, and Mandaloun. I will also flip the 3rd group with the last group for a total of $42.
History repeating because Chad is bringing in a very good horse primed to run a great race. He deserves a victory but I think a late blooming monster from SA is going to ruin the party again(see 2018). I will post more supers as I devise them but “I feel the need for greed” will be the biggest ticket. Good luck to all of you formulating your bets. Stay focused and listen to the little man inside.
LOL. All together now…A most imaginative post, El Kabong!
That is quite an intro. Thank you for such great use of your brainpower. LOL Best of luck with all your bets
I’ve already made a slight revision in “history repeating” super. I have to add RHC. You and some others convinced me. In review of the LD, his stride does look comfortable through the wire. No evidence of shortening in the few yards to the wire. Speed figures say no but eyeball says he may just keep improving and even if he runs that last 1/16th in 7 seconds he is still hitting 2:02. That’s on the board for sure.
Adjustment to history repeating. Added RHC with KA, Essential Q, Medina Spirit, group. Added Bourbonic to other group so now it’s a $64 total when 3rd and 4th groups are flipped.
“FEEL THE NEED FOR GREED” superfecta $165
RYW with KA, Sainthood, O Besos, Medina, HRC, Helium, Essential Q, Soup and Sand with Highly Mo, Known Agenda with Known Agenda, Sainthood, O Besos, Mandaloun, Medina, HRC, Dynamic 1, Helium, Essential Q, King Fury, Highly Mo, Soup n sand, Bourbonic
Good luck to all.
Replaced King Fury with Super Stock.
I took a couple of days to clear my head, and I’m back in the game to find obscure angles for the Kentucky Derby. Years ago my grandpa would put me on his knee — it was embarrassing because I was 17 — and tell me about horses with a BIG WIN in their last race. His angle was mostly about claiming and allowance races. It went something like this…though I could be off in remembering the exact parameters:
1) Horse must be close to the early pace, but not on the lead or vying for the lead. Horse must also be ahead of at least half the field at that juncture, somewhere between 2 and 4 lengths behind.
2) Horse must have won the race by more than 2 lengths. Grandpa could have said more than 3 lengths, but I didn’t write anything down!
3) Horse must STEP UP in class and return within 2 weeks.
I thought I’d look back about 10 years in the Derby to see how these types fared. In regard to #3, I obviously did not consider the 2-week return for Derby runners. But they’re all stepping up in class in the Kentucky Derby!
What surprised me was that so few Derby runners had accomplished grandpa’s Big Win in their last prep. Those that did were Always Dreaming (2017),, Gun Runner (2016), American Pharoah (2015), Danza (2014), Orb (2013), and Went the Day Well (2012, on the Turfway synthetic track). So…six qualifiers, of which you have 3 Derby winners, and 2 that finished 3rd. Went the Day Well finished 4th in the Derby at odds of 30-1.
This year has TWO qualifiers: Known Agenda and Super Stock. KA is already my prime win bet, but I might be throwing a few bucks at SS because he could get a piece at a big price.
Somehow I can visualize that, LOL
When I was 10 my grandpa shared his cigars with me. Loved that guy.
You’re locked in on that now, as far as I can tell. Go get ‘em.
Its just TOO darn confusing this year so I will follow my initial gut – Elusive Quality/Known Agenda exacta and hope the odds are better than I think they will be.
Thanks for your hard work . Ilike your oats-derby pick. Thought you were coming with some thoughts on the oats. LOVE YOUR WORK SWEDE
Steve, I am still, to this day, an old-school DRF PPs kinda guy who uses but isn’t a slave to Beyers. I understand how they are cumputed and formulated. I also know they there is some subjectivity involved. In my opinion, they are as good as anything.
Can you explain how Thorograph numbers are computed? What is taken into account? A quick tutorial, please? I have never understood them.
Also, do you think the banning of Lasix for stakes races has resulted in lower Beyers all around due to the fact that the horses are carrying extra water weight on race day?
Thee only thing you have to know is that is combines the time and ground loss and other lesser factors. Or trip handicapping. The more ground loss the more it affects the number. I dont see any connection between time and Lasix
Thank you. Good luck with your wagers and thank you for your hard work. I have always felt that writing down thoughts and getting them out of one’s head and on paper is a big help to organizing one’s thoughts. I imagine you get as much out of writing about the Derby as you give us.
After 30 years of Derby Watch, Derby Dozen, Derby Doings, and writing the lead Story for DRF and Bloodhorse it’s still fun to start from scratch in Jan and try to discover new Derby horses and write your observations. This year has been the most fun because of so many great posters
You always make it fun too! Don’t discredit yourself.
Seems someone turned into the usual Pennywise on the other site tonight, yes?
Must kill you not to be able to post over there
JUST ANOTHER NOTE THAT I WILL BE MAKING UPDATES ON MY BETS AND OBSERVATIONS FRIDAY EVENING AFTER I SEE FIRST DAY CLOSING ODDS. NORMALLY THE DERBY ODDS DONT CHANGE THAT DRAMATICALLY SO WE SHOULD GET AN IDEA HOW THE HORSES ARE BEING BET. I WILL KEEP UPDATING ON SATURDAY IF THE ODDS DO CHANGE AND I HAVE ANY LATE REVELATIONS, WHICH I USUALLY DO
Well, it’s been blinkers off – taking everything in we can – but now it’s time to put the blinkers on! Narrow the focus!
Who are the most likely to end up in the front of the herd at the 10 furlong mark. Thanks Steve for all the great insights
And analysis. I’m liking Highly Motivated, Medina Spirit, and Essential Quality. By the way in Minnesota we say Medina
Meh-die-na. Good luck!
Well, its a city in Saudi Arabia, so I’m not sure about the Minnesota connection. Lol
LOL. I know of Edina, Minnesota, only because the name came up in the classic movie “Fargo.” I believe it was where the character Mike Yanagita said he was living.
Yes Edina is the wealthy suburb we Minnesotans love to hate. Cake eaters.
Flew to International Falls couple times in summer,not a fan of cold weather. MN-in summer,is great!
I’ve come a long way from the post-it note population of Cynthiana, too long probably. But, I have to say being back in Kentucky this week has been a blast and everything I’ve seen still leads me to king fury. RYW looks like a 4 or 5 year old, I’ll admit. I trust in known agenda and the jock to get up in the mix. Best of the others in order of appearance on the track are dynamic one, mandaloun, hot rod, o besos and midnight bourbon. So, I like the Louisiana derby to play heavy this year. These opinions have been formed with my eyes, my baggage, my skeletons and Steve’s wonderful words. Thank you so much everyone for all your insight and civility. Have fun.
My new strategy is a tweak on last weeks plan. I still will single king fury in all the horizontals, and if and when the ticket is alive going into the derby, i will hedge against him in the win and exacta pools (favorites on top) in order to break even or only lose half my lunch. I’ll need some ammo for Maryland.
One 50 cent trifecta I will play is reverse key midnight bourbon in third with all of the above adding sainthood and EQ. I will box the two kings in an exacta for the fun of the reference made above by our emcee. “Never dies the dream” works too. Thanks again Steve Haskin. Just awesome. Well done.
Thanks very much. It sounds like youre having a great time and making some keen observations. King Fury as you know had on of the best Derby works I’ve seen in 30 years and although I’m not crazy about only one 1 1/16 mile race this year you have to include him based on his work and and his gallops.
I have a customer in Cynthiana, E.D. Bullard. Been there a couple times. Funny, I always plan that trip in April and then head to Lexington for the weekend. I wonder why.:)
Yeah, I gotta find room for highly motivated. Duly noted. Lol. Clownskill, you just stoked a memory of a hard hat with a horse and pasture painted on it. Thanks.
It’s all in the odds board at this point. What a ride.
Buddy sainthood going to help known agenda get out of there on time. No worries. And after that, Corey on the rail and sainthood’s scrapping attitude, idk, Pletcher exacta all four is pretty easy.
Ken McPeek Oaks-Derby double, Crazy Beautiful and King Fury.
Oh yeah, don’t forget wills secret and starrininmydreams in pat day.
I see how that reads. Know the other two are stewart’s. Think they are live in exotics. Crazy is dappled.
Steve, that was the most thorough analysis of the Derby ever. There is something in there for everyone. You are like a Hubble telescope with a trackside lens. You have talked me onto the Rock Your World bandwagon. That along with his sharp workouts, 100 Beyer and Rosario riding. Rosario like the Ortiz brothers are hard to get, for him not to commit to Hot Rod Charlie means something I don’t like him not being on the lead. It could set the stage for opportunistic connections willing to take the gambit.
Mandaloun has looked and trained as well as anyone. You have always said the ones that blossomed in April are dangerous and this is going all the way back to the Sunday Silence days. I refuse to knock Essential Quality. Unbeaten multiple grade 1 winner by a 25% trainer. I always like the equipment change angle and even though it’s not a strong move for his trainer (10%) Keepmeinmind is still worth a whack.
I really appreciate that, Ian. Thank you very much. Remember thee one thing I said about Rock Your World. He is high risk and high reward. We really dont know much about him. I do believe he is the most gifted horse in the field and will be a major star, but its still asking a lot to go into the Derby with only 3 lifetime starts and one on dirt. And it is a must that he breaks well. With that said, if you told me the winner was going to win by 5 lengths I would immediately assume it is him. At his odds I’m just going to play it safe and not go overboard. I’ll just be happy if he wins.
I know all the pitfalls. This is a race to ” spread your risk”
Thanks Steve. Just found you here a couple of weeks ago, and am glad I did. I enjoy following along and the comments are pleasant to read as well. Good luck to all. I thought Sainthood looked great on the track and will be hoping he can hit the board. Have fun!
Thanks very much. I’m glad you found us, too, and hope you keep coming back to read my weekly columns, and we sill have two more Triple Crown races to go.
Your summation is as clear as this year’s field. Seems like you can make a case for practically any combo bet you land on. I think I’m going to look for a cold exacta and bet it heavily. If I’m winning heading into the Derby I’ll add an all bet for the third slot and hope for the longest shot in the field to fill it. Birthdays and anniversaries will have to do for supers. Thank you for sharing your insights and dumping them into an informative, inventive, and entertaining article week after week. You’ll always be ranked number one in my Derby authors dozen.
Thank you very much, Ginnie. I appreciate the kind words and good luck with your exacta and whatever trimmings you add to it.
I’ve always let my eyes inform me more than raw numbers, there are so many track variants, watching the LA Derby the field is fairly bunched down the backstretch, and quite spread out in deep stretch—O Besos took a big step up in the figs–but he also was able to accomplish that into a race flow that was not to his favor–I’ve settled on three from that race–Hot Rod Charlie, O Besos and Mandaloun, a large framed colt that oozes class—as well as Rock Your World, Medina Spirit and Essential Quality….since I think Rock Your World is going to win I played a $2 tri–Rock–over those five, followed by a tri box with those other five (without Rock, as I think Rock will either win BIG or not finish in the top three)–costing $60, with the Rock on top for $2 costing $40 that’s $100 in tri bets….$200 win Rock & $50 win/place o Besos and I’m down for $400 this year! Good luck, safe trips and safe home to all!
Thank you Steve, for sharing your wealth of knowledge. Great article, as always. Hopefully I can put it to good use on derby day. Good luck to all.
Thank you and good luck to you
Hello Steve, looks like a sunny Derby ahead and a full 20 horse field . Like you I believe Dynamic One and to a lesser extent O Besos could pull the big upset. Known Agenda should be fine on the rail and rally as he did in the FLA Derby. RYW will be hard to beat if he can break well and be in the first flight. Essential Quality is rock solid and is the deserving favorite. Those are my 5 that I will use in the Late P4 as well as boxing the 5 in a TRI and in a $1 SF Box. Safe trips to all, hope we cash Steve! Thanks for your hard work on the Derby trail Steve.
I too want to thank you, Steve, for continuing your Derby rankings. I always enjoy them. I haven’t commented before because I’ve been speechless. Nothing has made any sense, and I’ve been all over the place with my choices. Sometimes I got the feeling that every horse had one outstanding race in his repertoire and nothing to follow up. One thing I find interesting is that so many horses are by solid distance sires. Usually one of the big questions is who can handle the final furlong. This year the major contenders are all bred to do it.
Now that the time has come for a final pick, I too like Known Agenda. The two favorites are fine horses who have done everything right, but Essential Quality’s races didn’t exactly overwhelm me and I’m not sure whether Rock Your World can come back with another race like his Santa Anita Derby. I was very impressed by Bourbonic’s Wood Memorial, but I didn’t quite dare to pick him to win. Maybe second with Essential Quality third. I think this is a good year to be Todd Pletcher.
Glad you decided to comment. Hope to see you here again. Goof luck with your bets. Hopefully we can get a good price on Known Agenda
I’m all about Rock Your World.. he is a stickout to me…and i was on Known Agenda, Steve, but i disagree with you about the post .. i think it is still deadly.. the issue is the number of horses outside of him moving to the inside, not just the first 4, and when they leave the chute, that rail is gone for a bit and nothing to prevent the 1 post horse from getting shoved way back–unless his jock is willing to commit to a lead run. I am not convinced the favorite will want 10 furlongs and i am grateful for the McIngvale wager.. price may not be as good as you want it but if he runs like i expect, you aren’t going to get this good a price on him again soon’.. I do think Agenda can roll up into the exotics with his turn of foot and Irad there.. mixing in Soup and Sandwich and Essential Quality underneath my choice.. its a 20 horse field.. the prices will be fine
As i recall the one killed Little Current, Risen Star and Point Given.. I don’t think either the new gate will save Agenda nor is Known Agenda is going to avoid losing precious lengths
All we can do is see how it plays out. Very hard to predict whats going to happen. Its not ideal but you just dont know
I hope its one of the two.. id like to see quality emerge on top as the winner if its there!
Good luck , Steve and thank you for all this work..
I hope its one of the two.. id like to see quality emerge on top as the winner if its there!
Good luck , Steve and thank you for all this work..
Thank you Steve for this and all of the Derby rankings 🙂
Cannot remember another year like this one where have found it hard to root for just one horse. Not one of them would surprise.
The greys Essential Quality (champ!) and Soup and Sandwich, King Fury (Rooted for King Fury from the start being a son of Curlin and Taris. Won the Street Sense Overnight Stakes and his maiden win at Churchill. Won the Lexington on a sloppy track), Hot Rod Charlie, Rock Your World, O Besos, Keepmeinmind, Brooklyn Strong, Bourbonic, Soup and Sandwich, Dynamic One (always root for Phipps Stable lines/horses), Super Stock (was second to King Fury in the Street Sense, third in the Iroquois), Midnight Bourbon (Huge fan of Tiznow!), Bourbonic…
Wouldn’t it be interesting if Medina Spirit and Midnight Bourbon ran 1-2, with Midnight Bourbon being sired by Tiznow and Medina Spirit is a Giant’s Causeway grandson (probably silly thinking, but oh well :)) and at Churchill.
Or if Lava Man accompanies another Derby winner to the gate. Have liked Hot Rod Charlie since his second in the Breeders Cup Juvenile. Or if Into Mischief sires back to back winners. He has three in the Derby.
Am wondering how much the Dosage Index/DI factors? Don’t really understand it fully, but had read somewhere, years back, that horses with a DI more than 4? had not won the Derby, however there have been horses that have; Real Quiet, Charismatic, Giacomo, Nyquist, Always Dreaming, Mine That Bird, American Pharoah went on to win the Triple Crown…
Most of the horses in the Derby this year have a DI around the 2s, 3s, etc. There was one, cannot recall which one, that had a DI of 11…
Just curious is Perfect Drift is still an active pony?
Safe race for all riders, horses. Best of luck to everyone on their wagers, picks.
Mandaloun has the Dosage Index of 11
Dosage no longer is relevant. The Chef de Race sires have not been updated in many years. I thought the same thing about Tiznow and Giants Causeway. That would be very cool. I will ask Murray Johnson is he knows about Perfect Drift.
Congratulations Steve for your fearless generosity and sharing your precious years of experience and wisdom with everyone here… That’s what fine older men with wisdom do for others seeking out similar interests in life. You’ve given us the best analysis available in real time during the events of the past weeks and months. We’ve all having the fuller 2021 Derby experience because of you. Thanks!
That’s very kind of you. Thank you so much. It makes me feel good knowing people had fun all winter. It’s ll about the journey.
Will be hard to finish ahead of both Essential Quality and Rock Your World. But Midnight Bourbon is my 3rd ranked horse and at 20-1 ml the obvious play for me. I’m sure he’ll be bet down to 15-1, hopefully not lower than that. I’ll have Win, Place, Exactas and Trifectas with MB as the key. Hey, my initials are MB. 🙂 Rooting for Asmussen to get his first, he’s due and deserving. #WinWin
And to Steve… wish I could shake your hand as I say thank you for another joyous ride.
Consider it a virtual shake. Thank you. Go Tiznow!
When you explain the race scenario like it makes a lot of sense. This was a brilliantly written and very informative assessment of the race. I notice that you didn’t put Highly Motivated in your current betting plans, exotics or otherwise. You spoke very highly of him. To me he sure looks the part of a winner. Beautiful horse and I think he will run big. Whether it is good enough we will soon see. I know that your handicapping skills are exceptional so I will ponder what I am going to do. The more I think about it the more confused I get.
I will say this, it is foolish (I believe) to leave Essential Quality out of the exotics. Highly Motivated ran 3 times as a 2 year old, to me that is a pretty good foundation. I would think that every trainer in this race believes their horse has a shot.
The payback/karma factor tells me that Saez deserves to win this race after that DQ with Maximum Security.
I am dropping Medina Spirit only because I believe I can’t bet all of them.
My win bets go on Essential Quality & Highly Motivated.
My exotics will have to include Rock Your World even though I do not think he will win.
Plus Dynamic One, Known Agenda , Essential Quality, and Highly Motivated.
I will bet the exacta & trifecta plus a couple superfecta’s.
I don’t believe Baffert will be relevant this year, his real good horses are either hurt or off form.
It is difficult to bet them all & this years edition is very confusing. No one knows how a 20 horse field will affect the minds of a young 3 year old.
Again many thanks Steve for a wild Derby Ranking ride, better then a roller coaster.
Thanks Deacon. I cant figure out yet what to do with Highly Motivated. He’ll be too short to bet win or back ending an exacta with the top choices. I havent decided yet on my trifectas until I see the early betting, but he will definitely be included in those. As I mentioned, updates to follow
I think we might 8 or 9-1 on Highly Motivated. That is pretty good payout on a $20 bet, at least to me.
It would cover my win bet on Essential Quality.
In a short synopsis what do you think of Super Stock. He worries me, not sure what to think of him.
I gotta stop I am getting more confused.
He is one of the horses that really has me baffled. People are discounting the Arkansas Derby and call it a perfect setup race, which it was, but he was close to that fast pace and we really have no idea how much he’s improved. He’s looked good in the morning. Nothing he does would surprise me, including a victory. He also may have the Derby gods on his side. All I know is that hes going to be a huge price for an Arkansas Derby winner
Many thanks, Steve, for your remarkable work on this blog. I truly hope you earn that “lifetime score.” I’m keeping it simple on Saturday, as I may have mentioned before. My brain can’t handle as many combinations as found on a Chinese restaurant menu. Anyway, as usual, my final decisions will be made when the horses come out for the post parade. P***ed off that Battaglia made KA 6-1 in the morning line. That can influence post-time odds. He would not be 6-1 at post-time with a reasonable ML…or no morning line at all. 🙂
You wrote that “27 of the last 30 Derbys the winner was either first or second at the eighth pole.” That’s a critical piece of information, and it can be predicted by where the 20 horses were positioned by the stretch call of their last prep. Since 1987, EVERY Derby winner was 1st or 2nd (or within 2 1/2 lengths of the leader) at the stretch call of the final prep. Those who weren’t in this year’s group are O Besos, Sainthood, Bourbonic, Mandaloun, Hidden Stash, Keepmeinmind, and Brooklyn Strong.
I’ll be following your comments for the final days, plus discussion of any late developments. My biggest hope for Saturday is that all 20 runners cross the finish line healthy and happy! A winning ticket would be icing on the cake.
Thanks Eddie. your final comment is the most important one. I think I kept it pretty simple myself by keeping away from trifectas…at least for now. I’m am focusing on my early “discoveries” and staying loyal to them. I cant fault them all these months later. Good luck with all your bets and thanks again for all your wonderful contributions.
Was Street Sense within 2 1/2 lengths at the 1/8 pole or stretch call. That was one great ride by Calvin Borel.
Loved that horse and that story. Carl Nafzger was a great trainer IMO.
Hey, Deacon! Nafzger wasn’t so great. Vicar came in 19th in 1999. 😉 Seriously, Nafzger has the second highest winning percentage of all trainers who’ve had two or more Derby winners. So he was 2 for 3. How many Derby losses had Pletcher
suffered by the time he won his second Derby? Answer: a lot!
Street Sense was fourth but just 3/4 length off the leader at the stretch call of the woefully slow-paced Blue Grass Stakes. What a dramatic fight in the stretch it was!
Maybe I got confused but I was speaking of the Derby as the rail opened up and Borel made his way through with a precise move. Street Sense was some 20 lengths behind but yes he made up a lot of ground on the far turn.
Oh yeah. When I referred to the 2 1/2 lengths back (or 1st or 2nd) at the stretch call, it was about the final prep and how that marker can predict success in the Derby. Yes, Borel was incredible. So was the horse. 🙂 They had just one horse beat at the start of the Derby (just like the BCJ at CD), but by the stretch call they were in the lead!
Now that you have eliminated the word expert from this years Derby you have painted a very concise assessment for us.
Now it’s crunch time, make your picks, go with your gut and stay true to yourself, remember the Derby Prayer” My Horse has a Chance.
Good Luck to everyone and enjoy the moment. HAPPY DERBY
Thank you, Steve, as always for your thoughts and insights. Sorting all of this out by 6:30 pm Saturday is going to make the last hours of April 2021 and the first hours of May 2021 fun, fun, fun!
Sally:
Best of luck with your wagers!
Back at you, Biggy!
Dang it Steve. You gave me more things to consider. I have my five nailed down: Dynamic One, Midnight Bourbon, Rock Your World, Known Agenda, and Essential Quality. Good luck to all and may they all cross the finish line safe.
We’re pretty much on the same wave length
That it has. And such very fine reading. Thank you. Best wishes to all of you with your bets.
Thank you Angela. Same to you
As always, appreciate your insight, Steve. I am a person that largely goes by looks, more in terms of condition than physical beauty, and sound, smooth movement. In this race, there are a few horses that definitely pass the “eyeball test” in both categories. As you mentioned, Midnight Bourbon is a standout physically and I’d rate him #1 in the condition test. King Fury is my pick in the way-of-going category. Both will pay well at the windows, but I think I’ll root for the little guy just a little harder, though I wouldn’t mind seeing Steve Asmussen get his Derby winner.
Cant argue with either of them. Good luck
I’m throwing some money at Hidden Stash. Not sure why, but my gut is telling me to. I do like Midnight Bourbon, simply because he looked like he had fun when he got loose. Hoping they all come back sound on Saturday!
Steve:
Thank you for this wagering strategy column. I am sure the trifecta will pay a fortune: best of luck, I hope you hit yours! My trifecta thoughts: I was looking for a horse to key that would not be too low odds (so no EQ or RYW) and that has high cruising speed (knocked out HRC for sane reasons as you). That led me to Highly Motivated: I like the three Bris 102 speed figures and I think his third race this year will be his fastest; maybe good enough first or second. In any case, the following is my trifecta:
(17)(1,14,9,15)(1,3,5,9,11,12,14,15,16,18,20) That one is $40 for a $1 trifecta.
(1,14,9,15)(17)(1,3,5,9,11,12,14,15,16,18,20) This one is $40 as well.
Last year, I cost myself $1,300 by only having Tiz on top of Authentic, not the other way around!
Best of luck with your wagers! Can’t wait for Saturday!
Wow thats a lot of numbers. I hope the winner is in there somewhere. Best of luck
Saturday, May 1, Churchill Downs. Pick 4 Races 9-12 $.50. 2 x 1 x 2 x 3= $6.00 .
Race 9 #2 (Winfromwithin) and #10 (Next)
Race 10 #5 (Tap It to Win)
Race 11 #3 (Colonel Liam) and #4 (Ivar)
Race 12 #1 (Know Agenda) and #5 (Sainthood) and #10 (Midnight Bourbon)
For Kentucky Derby 147, $10 WPS on #5 Sainthood. This horse has demonstrated mental toughness in his races. Maybe this translates into an ability to handle kickback from a stalking, inside position behind the speed. And of course, I’m counting on Lady Luck. Always good to have her by your side.
Cant win without her
So much food for thought, Steve. I want to read this particular column through again before making final decisions — even mental ones! — but to me it sounds like you are going with your gut, based on information that you trust: Thoro-graph patterns, latest works, and overall impressions of how these horses are doing. Makes me want to do the same! Good luck, everyone!
I am going with the horses I’ve been high on all year. No reason to desert them now