Derby Rankings Handicapping & Analysis – “Law and Order…Finally”
This column marks the end of the wildest, wackiest, and most perplexing Triple Crown trail ever. Hopefully, next year we will return to a sense of normality. I want to take this time to thank all those who made the transition from Derby Dozen and Hangin’ With Haskin to Secretariat.com and have continued to provide their comments, opinions and in depth analysis. And I want to welcome all the Secretariat fans and followers and newcomers who have joined us in this new endeavor. We will see you again in January, when we will begin what we hope will be the beginning of the traditional Derby Trail. In the meantime, please stick around for the weekly Askin’ Haskin columns, where we will continue to talk racing, both past and present, and provide more behind the scenes back stories of racing’s greats.~ Steve Haskin
Look, it doesn’t take a genius or even a novice handicapper to realize that, from the standpoint of talent, pedigree, accomplishments, and running style, there is a wide chasm that separates Tiz the Law and Honor A. P. from the rest of the horses. And there very well may be a wide chasm that separates Tiz the Law from Honor A. P. Some might put Authentic close up there as well with Art Collector dropping out, but as I have been saying, he still has to show that his pedigree and running style can get the job done. No one is doubting his talent, and his chances definitely improve now that the classy and versatile Art Collector is no longer around to possibly look him in the eye early on.
So, where does that leave you when it comes to betting on this year’s Labor Day weekend Derby, especially when so many handicapping tools are not at your disposal as in past years? Remember, we are now dealing with far more mature and experienced Derby horses, yet so many are coming off long layoffs we have no way of assessing them.
Even the overwhelming favorite, Tiz the Law, will be attempting something that has never been attempted before – winning the Derby coming off a mile and a quarter race. Will that hurt him or help him or have no affect on him at all? Unlike with your typical Derby, Tiz the Law will looking for a peak effort after having remained in peak form for seven months, with Barclay Tagg doing an excellent job spacing his races and keeping him fresh. But can he keep it going and deliver yet another bravura performance, his first being back in February in the Holy Bull Stakes? I have always referred to him as “The Machine,” and now we will see if new threats like Honor A. P., Authentic, Ny Traffic, and King Guillermo can turn him off or at least slow him down. So far, no one has been able to do either.
And then there is Honor A. P., who had his schedule disrupted early in the year, yet still would have been a leading contender for the Derby after his impressive score in the Santa Anita Derby. Now, after being cloistered away in California since then, with not many opportunities to race, he will be going into the Derby off a defeat in the non-graded mile and a sixteenth Shared Belief Stakes, which will be his only start in 13 weeks. Hardly the way trainer John Shirreffs mapped it out. But his last three works indicate he is sharp, fit, and ready to fire his best shot. Forget the Shared Belief. He was nowhere near fully cranked for that race and he made a big premature move on the first turn that I believe cost him the race. With his humongous stride, the last thing you want to do is make two moves with him. Breaking from post 16, he better break sharply and stay well clear of traffic.
With all that said, both these horses seem to tower over the others, many of whom have numerous question marks themselves. And there is an excellent chance that Tiz the Law towers over them all. His fastest Brisnet and Beyer speed figures are much faster than anything else in the race and he is the only horse who has run three negative Thoro-graph figures. So not only is he fast, he is consistently fast. And he was in a common gallop the last sixteenth of a mile in the Travers and was still drawing away.
So if you’re a big fan of Tiz the Law, who I have had ranked No. 1 for 17 straight weeks, and feel he can’t lose, you don’t want to bet him straight at odds-on, so pick three or four bombs and play them underneath or back end them on the trifecta and superfecta if you want to put Honor A. P. second.
And now we come to the post position draw, which, of course, turned out as wacky as the rest of the year with the three favorites, Honor A.P., Tiz the Law, and Authentic, drawing posts 16, 17, and 18, respectively. And remember what happened to Authentic when he broke from the outside post in the Santa Anita Derby and ducked out badly at the break. If he does that in the Derby he is cooked. As it is he will have to break very sharply and gun for the lead, as he has not shown he can win from off the pace. He has to do all that and not take too much out of himself, which means he is going to have get very lucky and have everything break perfectly for him. Fortunately, he has John Velazquez on his back, and there is no one I would rather have more under these circumstances.
Tiz the Law, who could wind up as the shortest-priced Derby favorite ever or certainly close to it, drew post 17, the only post that has never produced a Kentucky Derby winner. I don’t see this post hurting him one bit and he should get a good outside stalking position. And how about Finnick the Fierce of all horses drawing the rail? He has 17 horses outside him and is blind in his right eye. To further demonstrate what a screwball race this is, 12 of the 18 starters are listed at 30-1 or higher on the morning line.
I believe, Storm the Court, breaking from post 4 with three closers inside him, will be the first to strike the front before Authentic comes charging up from the far outside along with Ny Traffic. A fresh and sharp King Guillermo and Thousand Words will also be right up there with Tiz the Law and Honor A. P. tracking them on the outside.
With Art Collector out, watch out for King Guillermo and Ny Traffic to become the two wise guy horses, which means horses who will take a great deal of money in the wagering and get bet way down from their 20-1 morning line odds. They also will benefit from Art Collector’s absence from a strategy standpoint, as they can now sit right off the pace without having to contend with him occupying the same space. And both horses drew well with King Guillermo breaking from post 6 and Ny Traffic from post 15, where he can show his customary early speed and try to keep at least two of the three favorites parked outside him going into the first turn. Ny Traffic is the one who could be the proverbial thorn in Authentic’s side, because of his stalking style and the fact that he never goes away. He is like the terrier who grabs your pant leg and doesn’t let go. Like Authentic, it’s just a question of how far his pedigree will carry him, but he is always running hard at the wire, and having Dr. Fager in his sire’s pedigree twice doesn’t hurt when it comes to carrying your speed. I just fear he is going to be overbet.
THE LONGSHOTS
I know none of the longshots can match the top choices in ability, and on paper should not beat them. But one thing I have learned about the Derby is that longshots have won on occasion and finished in the money on numerous occasions. Very few thought anyone could beat Bellamy Road, Afleet Alex, and Bandini, all spectacular winners of their final prep, in 2005, but somehow 50-1 shot Giacomo managed to run by them all.
That probably won’t happen this year, but in a field this large you never know. Trying to pick out longshots, with so many who look similar and are fairly slow on speed ratings, is not easy, so I am going to make it simple. I am sticking with the horses I have been high on all year and who have been prominent in previous columns.
With that said, the horse who ranks way at the top of that list is SOLE VOLANTE, who was ranked in the top six 16 times, and as high as No. 2 six times. I am not crazy about his lack of racing and not having run a meaningful race since June 10, but here is what I wrote about him on Feb. 11 when he made his debut at No. 2:
“The reason he debuts so high on the rankings is because this is what a Derby horse is supposed to look like. He has a devastating closing kick on dirt and grass, in the Sam F. Davis Stakes he blew right on by an undefeated dual stakes winner and one of the leading Derby contenders and won going away with his ears pricked, with a gap of 11 1/4 lengths to Remsen runner-up Ajaaweed in third. To show what a spectacular move he made, he ran his third quarter in an eye-catching :23.26, according to Trakus, making up 13 lengths, then just kept going, coming home the final sixteenth in :06 flat. What makes his story so great is that you had to go through 3,493 yearlings at the Keeneland September sale to get him for a paltry $6,000. He was pinhooked at the OBS April 2-year-old sale and went for only $20,000 to Biancone.”
He has run back-to-back 108 Brisnet late pace figures, which at the time was the fastest late pace figure by a 3-year-old, and I trust Patrick Biancone to put a lot of bottom in him with those two-minute licks on grass, his pair of mile works on grass, and a blazing five-furlong work in :57 4/5, also on grass. I feel he will appreciate going back to the dirt and Churchill Downs dirt has always been conducive to grass horses. Of all the closers, he has the quickest turn of foot and can get into the race in a flash, and I know he will relish every inch of the mile and a quarter.
The longshot who is starting to really intrigue me is ATTACHMENT RATE, who was ranked in the top 12 four times and was taken off mainly because he refused to change leads and was grossly underachieving. But there was always something about him I liked, including his pedigree, and I was very impressed with his maiden victory. Then came the Ellis Park Derby and it was like watching a totally different horse, who had suddenly come into his own, doing everything the right way, and wound up finishing a strong second Art Collector, with his Thoro-Graph number jumping from “4s” and “5s” to a “1/2,” which puts him right in the mix. This is now the horse I thought he’d be and why I catapulted him all the way up to No. 4. And remember, his trainer Dale Romans has already finished third in the Derby with a two longshot grass horses. Normally one to talk his horses up, he appears to be sneaking in this time holding his cards close to the vest. In short, I just feel this new, improved Attachment Rate could be sitting on a big race, especially with the turn of foot he displayed in the Ellis Park Derby and how strongly he galloped out past the wire. And wouldn’t this be a good time for the Derby gods to take over, with Romans having been born a just a few miles from Churchill Downs and in the same barn since he was a kid working for his father.
The final longshot with whom I have had a history this year is MAJOR FED, who I admit does not have the speed figures to compete with the top horses and is another who is coming into the Derby off a long layoff, but I feel he is going to love the mile and a quarter and has proven versatile enough to run well from mid-pack or from far back. But with a pair of fast bullet works at Churchill Downs recently and drawing post 5, I expect to see him closer to the pace, racing in mid-pack. But he needs to break cleanly.
Here is what I wrote about him on his in the March 24 Derby Dozen, one of his seven times ranked in the top 12: “I am looking for a horse who has the turn of foot, the pedigree, and the class to launch a bid from mid-pack. A bad start in the Louisiana Derby, in which he had his head turned at the break, cost him all position, but he still closed from 14th to finish fourth after being forced eight-wide turning for home. What I loved was the explosive move he made after being taken off the rail on the far turn, losing so much ground and shrugging off two solid bumps from Shake Some Action and then Enforceable in the stretch. The reason he couldn’t get closer than 4 3/4 lengths was because Wells Bayou was loose on an easy lead in :48 and 1:12.42 and came home his final three-sixteenths in a rapid :18.86. In his two races at two turns, Major Fed was two to three lengths off the lead and now he found himself a dozen lengths back in 14th and last. So this was a promising effort and he will be a lot more formidable when allowed to run his race, especially at 1 1/4 miles. He has a pedigree inundated with European staying power, he will run all day, and his last two races indicate there is a great deal of improvement still to come.”
So these are the three longshots I was originally going to be focusing on, considering the impression they made on me earlier in the year, with the hope they can move up and utilize their strengths going a mile and a quarter.
And then came the monkey wrench thrown into the mix at the last minute. I am referring to SOUTH BEND, who has a powerful late kick and whose pedigree has always had me drooling. Frankly, I couldn’t understand why he was not being considered for the Derby, as I have always felt he was a Derby horse, despite his disappointing fourth-place finish in the Travers Stakes, in which he was beaten over nine lengths, and according to Bill Mott had no excuses. He sure looked like Derby material when he won the Street Sense Stakes at Churchill Downs last year. But after a sixth-place finish in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes over a deep sloppy track, he went to the grass for six races, racing well on occasion but never winning. Finally he was returned to the dirt and was flying at the end of the Ohio Derby, finishing second, beaten three-quarters of a length. Then came the Travers, and if you’re willing to forgive that effort, even though he still finished on the board, then he could be an enticing prospect trying a mile and a quarter for the second time. Yes, his broodmare sire, Old Trieste, was a speedball, but you won’t find a stronger pedigree. In his first four generations he has seven different classic winners (Bernardini, A.P. Indy, St. Jovite, Seattle Slew, Avatar, Pleasant Colony, and Majestic Prince), two of them twice. So of the 15 sires in his first four generations, nine of them were classic winners. And if you go to his fifth generation, you can add Secretariat twice, Spectacular Bid, and Nashua. So now I have to throw another longshot in there.
Although I likely will have no room for him unless I really stretch my bets, I will mention ENFORCEABLE, only because he has been the horse all along I was predicting could be the typical Derby longshot who rallies for second at a big price. But you can only play so many, and I have had closer ties to those mentioned above. But I know I’m going to pressure myself to add him to the exotics right before the race when I see his monster odds, which always costs me more money and adds to my losses. I could be successful if I only knew how to bet. So, let’s include him as one of the longshots, but a lesser one along with South Bend. Because of my previous comments I have to at least bet a Tiz the Law — Enforceable exacta.
I am going to mention one more horse, who, as I said earlier, likely will be lower odds than his 20-1 morning line, and about whom I am totally perplexed. I have no idea what I am going to do with him and probably will wait until race day to see what his odds are. That horse is KING GUILLERMO, who is attempting the unthinkable, which is coming into the Kentucky Derby off a four-month layoff. Normally, I would toss him, but I am a big fan of Venezuelan horsemen and there is that nagging feeling that his trainer Juan Avila might just be able to pull this off, as unlikely as it sounds. But the main reason I moved him up to No. 5 on my Derby Rankings this week is because I believe this horse is exceptionally gifted, he has that proverbial look of eagles, and his victory in the Tampa Bay Derby was too impressive to ignore.
He has already shown he can run huge (Tampa Bay Derby) off little racing, and as I wrote on my Derby Rankings, his :58 1/5 work at Churchill Downs last week may have been the best Derby work I have seen since Smarty Jones in 2004. Also, in his all-important tail-female family you will find Irish Derby winner El Gran Senor, who was beaten a nose in the English Derby, and Stage Door Johnny, winner of the Belmont Stakes and one of my favorite classic and stamina influences. I just don’t want a horse with his talent and sheer brilliance to beat me, so I likely will play him to win if his odds are enticing enough or throw him into a few exotics with the favorites. It’s just too soon to commit to anything with him.
So, as of this writing (and it could change on race day) I will be making win bets on longshots Sole Volante, Attachment Rate, and Major Fed, and lesser bets on Enforceable and South Bend, and will play them underneath Tiz the Law and Honor A.P. in the exactas and trifectas, and possibly underneath King Guillermo as well if he continues to look great in the morning. Check my Facebook page for any late changes and how I am keying the horses.
One thing I have to mention, if you are looking for the one horse who is as fast as Tiz the Law on Thoro-Graph it is Ny Traffic. So, excluding the longshots, he is the one horse at a half decent price who possibly could beat the three favorites on his best effort
So, the one bet I know I am making is a $1 trifecta box with Tiz the Law, Attachment Rate, Sole Volante, Major Fed, and Enforceable, as well as Tiz the Law, Honor A.P., Attachment Rate, Sole Volante, and Major Fed.
Last year, I had a big win bet on Country House and had him underneath Maximum Security in the exactas, so I was in good shape either way. I can’t imagine getting that lucky again, but it’s fun trying.
RED IN THE PED
With this column appearing on Secretariat.com, we must pay homage to our founding father by devoting some space to his influence on this year’s Kentucky Derby.
Of the 18 entrants, 13 have Secretariat in their pedigree, including the top three choices – Tiz the Law, Honor A. P., and Authentic. It would have been the top four choices had Art Collector not been withdrawn. Of course, 12 come from Secretariat’s Tremendous Trio — daughters Weekend Surprise, Terlingua, and Secrettame, with the other coming from his daughter Sister Dot, the dam of Dehere.
Weekend Surprise has been one of the most powerful female influences in the sport through her prolific son A.P. Indy, while Terlingua is pretty close through her son Storm Cat. And right behind those two is Secrettame through her son Gone West.
Here are the Derby entrants who trace to Secretariat at least once – Tiz the Law (Weekend Surprise—A.P. Indy), Ny Traffic (Sister Dot—Dehere), Sole Volante (Terlingua—Storm Cat), Enforceable (Weekend Surprise—A.P. Indy), Necker Island (Secrettame—Gone West), Money Moves (Secrettame—Gone West), Mr. Big News (Terlingua—Storm Cat).
Those with a double dose of Big Red include Honor A. P. (Weekend Surprise—A.P. Indy and Terlingua—Storm Cat), Authentic (Secrettame—Gone West and Terlingua—Storm Cat), Max Player (Weekend Surprise—A.P. Indy and Terlingua—Storm Cat), Finnick the Fierce (Weekend Surprise—A.P. Indy and Terlingua—Storm Cat), and South Bend (Weekend Surprise—A.P. Indy twice).
As for all the Meadow Stable fans, last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner and 2-year-old champion Storm the Court has both Secretariat (Weekend Surprise—A.P. Indy) and Riva Ridge, his Kentucky Derby winning barnmate in his fourth generation.
In looking at the chart, I see HAP made up seven lengths on Authentic from the half mile pole to the finish, this while going as far wide as the nine path. It’s a shame that whatever happened happened, but he is clearly a horse with a lot of talent who wasn’t bothered by the distance at all.
The Derby Trail is so enjoyable to follow, the pageantry surrounding the race is marvelous, but the Kentucky Derby itself is an ugly brawl with one colt having the best trip/luck that wins. Seldom does the best colt win.
In these small tracks you wish that would limit the number of runners.
This is to Peri’s post…
I’m not sure I believe a work over track would have made a difference, though I did at some point wish HAP had shipped earlier. I never thought John would do that, though.
I’m amazed Sherriffs agreed to ship at all (think Zenyatta). I think champions should race at several US elite tracks, not just be a hometown hero. Not a fan of this trainer.
Some horses do not handle shipping well. Zenyatta was one of them, I believe. Swiss Skydiver is, obviously, not. A ttrainer should be praised for avoiding that which harms the horse, don’t you think?
Agree, horse comes first. But the true greats, imo, compete at our best tracks and have earned their status. Those horses who can’t ship aren’t in that category. That aside, I just think Sherriffs himself is reluctant to compete at the major tracks. To me, he’s a Cali trainer. I know many may disagree, but that’s my opinion.
I’m not sure I believe a work over track would have made a difference, though I did at some point wish HAP had shipped earlier. I never thought John would do that, though.
For those wondering about my column, it actually is not much about the race. It is a personal column that I wrote to get out of my system. Stay tuned late morning.
My main take from the race is that I was shocked when I saw that Honor A.P. finished fourth. He showed me more in this race than any of his other races. I cant imagine where he wouldd have finished had he not gotten sawed off at the start and dropped back to last.
Steve, take a look at this…I’m not quite convinced that things would have been different, but it’s meaningful probably. HAP always goes wide, by choice apparently, so I don’t think going wide hurts him generally. Many are down on Mike – I mentioned this before the race – but I’m not.
* Who ran fastest in the Derby accounting for ground loss? Honor A. P. ran 49 more feet than Authentic. He traveled a total of 6712 feet in 121.16 seconds for an avg of 55.40 ft/sec. His adjusted time for 1 1/4 (6600 ft) is 1:59.14. Fastest in the race. Ground loss from Trakus.
https://twitter.com/truxtonstables/status/1302971486110732290?s=21
I think I would be unhappy – to say the least – as Honor APs trainer, if Mike misjudged and Honor AP finished the Derby with gas left in his tank. If he’d been able to start accelerating and picking off the others earlier in the backstretch, he wins. Amazing how he fast he ran, despite his usual gait being unavailing. On HRN, another commenter said they were expecting an Arrogate-at-Meydan move. “Why not?” is a reasonable question. It seems the horse has it in him.
Just to put it out there, and you can tell me I’m making excuses, but I really do think it was the track. I also think that Tiz wasn’t the only horse that was affected by it on Saturday. Thirteen out of 14 favorites didn’t come in, and many of those were prohibitive favorites. That’s less than 10%, kind of unusual.
Then we must keep an eye on the lone winning favorite, Essential Quality. Next year’s Derby winner? 🙂
Or a horse that will do well on the turf, lol.
Steve, since you are friendly with John, what do you make of his terseness, his almost abruptness in what little he’s had to say post-Derby? I know you’ve said he’s not a media guy, but still, usually trainers have something to offer about their horses when asked. He hasn’t offered his opinion on HAP’s race..He didn’t (nor did Mike) mention the start, didn’t say anything. It’s frustrating. He’s really said nothing. To me and to a few friends, he seems upset – or annoyed- in his response about future plans. What’s your opinion?
Also, if you speak to him anytime soon, can you please ask about the status of two horses? Thunder Code and Rampion? Thank you!
Havnt spoken to him yet bu I am hearing from someone who was next to him that he was not happy with Smith’s ride
Oh, interesting …my friend will be happy to hear that. Personally, I have my doubts – you can’t force a 1000 pound animal to do anything, and if it’s true that HAP wasn’t getting over the ground, I’m not sure Mike could have done anything else except do what he did. This bears watching, then.
Eddie – no, not at all. I think I misread your response. Sorry !
Count me in on that answer too regarding the disappointment and the status of Thunder Code and Rampion. It is good to see Express Train back in the mix for C R K Stable.
I’m telling you all right now……….HAP IS THE BEST …….i don’t understand why people don’t know how good he is……
He is the best horse in america if he stays sound………that is the only thing that will stop him……this is Lebron James…..the
talent is off the charts………..see what happens…….
You tried to make a 100 beyer horse an all time great……he ran good once……..you are going to see the difference soon…..
All of this whining, crying, is ridiculous…….watch and learn……….
And i won the derby……there is no way HAP is not better……..
Do you know what “best” means? How is HAP the best? He’s not the best because you say so. You say Tiz ran good once, which is ridiculous by itself, yet HAP actually did run good ONCE. Tiz is just “a 100 beyer horse”? His last three BSFs are 100, 109, and a likely 103 or 104. HAP’s last three BSFs are 102, 102, and — uh, what? — 98 maybe. BRIS numbers are even more in Tiz’s favor. And that’s leaving Authentic out of the discussion. LeBron James was a bad example. He’s ALWAYS been great. Nobody ever said, “That James fellow, he’s gonna be the best some day.”
dude…….he ran 4 100 beyers in a row, more or less…….then ran 109…….THAT was good…….people were going crazy……its sept……not may…….the 105 is NOT great for sept…….i won, and im saying this……..
This is a game you get paid for being right…….especially BEFORE it happens………there is no doubt in my mind who the best horse is……you can go ahead and bet TIZ……..that ship sailed………ALL ABOARD! sHIP hap IS ABOUT TO SAIL……
NO ONE NOTICES WHOS RIGHT ?……GO AHEAD DOUBT ME…..
I’m NOT doubting that HAP may become the best. I’m disagreeing with your contention that he IS the best. I bet on him in the Derby!
What might occur down the road is merely a possibility.
Obviously HAP isn’t the best right now, but I think you are being unfair saying he’s only run one good race. We’ll have to agree to disagree on his quality.
I wrote that comment in response to ProVet’s silly notion that Tiz “ran good once.” Are you defending HAP’s record and not defending Tiz’s record?
I’ve been using equibase figures all year, pretty much the same story though.
you may be right about HAP, but how could you have made money when your best horse in the country lock finished fourth?
because i bet both……the gave me 8-1 and 12-1 on the best horses…….i told you this how many times?….last .pool
David, I just disagree that he doesn’t have a turn of foot…
I’m not worried about HAP’s stud future – I don’t care about that right now; I’m more concerned with his on-track future.
Glad Thousand Words seems to be
fine and uninjured per the vet. today.
Wishing Mr. Barnes a speedy recovery.
That was a dangerous situation for horse
and people.
Well, as it turns out, I will have a column on Monday morning, as offbeat as it may be, and another post Derby column later in the week with a different twist.
Excellent!
A Monday piece? Best Labor Day surprise ever! Looking forward to reading.
Dont be so sure about that 🙂
Thanks! Wonderful!!!!
That will be lovely and no doubt quieting. Thank you.
wanna bet?
You’re on.
The 50% drop in handle for the Oaks and Derby. That’s a real worry.
Ah, so finally some good news from this lousy weekend, lol. Can’t wait to read them, Steve!
Good news indeed!
Yay!
It’s not going to be what you think.
An offbeat column, you say? Perhaps…
“Why I’m Joining PETA”
or
“If Maxfield, Nadal, Charlatan, Art Collector, and King Guillermo Had Competed in the Derby”
or
“Sole Volante Will Win the Preakness”
or
“Is a 2-Minute Race Worth 8 Months of My Life?
LOL. Good ones Eddie. Actually the column has little to do with the race. It is a personal column that I wrote to get out of my system.
Someone on a message board I post on posted this, and honestly, I think it’s perfect.
“The Awesome Again might be a good option and then go from there. If he were to win it, and comes out of it well, the BCC could be the next goal. If he runs well but the BCC looks to be too much for him this year, I think it would be fun to see him try the Hollywood Derby. They can have lots of fun with him but I think he does need to work on getting some quicks.”
Good idea-Awesome Again. Probably wants to see how he is doing.
Paula, the whole thing is odd to me. John has been so terse and quiet about HAP’s race, and while I don’t want to read too much into it, he sounded almost annoyed in saying that they have no plans for HAP yet. He didn’t say anything about how he thought HAP ran, didn’t make any excuses or give any explanations. I feel like he was very disappointed – but I wanted to hear from him.
I really wanted HAP to run in the JCGC, but now I think I’d rather them skip the BC. I don’t think the colt is ready for the big show yet.
When asked what might be next for Honor A.P., Shirreffs said: “I haven’t even thought about that. He’ll head back to California Monday, and we’ll see.”
I think my gut feeling might be correct.
HAP is flying back to CA tomorrow, so obviously no Preakness. Since he doesn’t have the points for the BC Classic, I suspect that he may either skip it in favor of, say, the Clark or just get a break and point for 2021
Eddie, he was last because he wasn’t handling the track. NY Traffic cutting HAP off was bad, but he could have overcome a lost length or two had he gotten into the race himself and allowed Mike to place him where he wanted.
Betsy, I’ve previously expressed a disdain for race excuses, and I feel the same way now. Excuses most likely had been offered on 12 horses in the Derby for their last-race losses. And where did they finish? The two last-out winners finished first and second. If HAP wasn’t handling the track early, why did he seem to handle the track for the final 4f? HAP was able to pass 10 horses after 3/4 of a mile, and he finished fourth.
I’m sorry but it’s not an excuse – it’s an explanation. I don’t buy the “no excuses” thing anyway. In any case, I don’t see any reason why a horse can’t struggle with a surface initially and then figure it out – if you don’t agree, that’s fine, but it explains why HAP lagged behind in last place…which is not his style at all. I believe Mike, also…and many people noticed this. What is your explanation for HAP being dead last?
I don’t have an explanation. He finished fourth. He’s now 1 for 4 in stakes races. Perhaps he’ll mature like Gun Runner did. I hope so.
I think he could mature, Eddie. He has so much potential.
I had these two as my top two horses, but in reverse order. If TTL doesn’t run the 1 1/4 Travers I think he wins going away. Didn’t like that race for him at that time. Authentic was the fresher horse.
My grandpa was always saying at the track that his most confident bets were on the classiest front runner in a field. It didn’t matter if there were other speed horses if they didn’t have the class. Grandpa would have been all over Authentic.
Listen to your elders. 😉
How did your grandpa say you would know class when you saw it?
Their hats are less flamboyant.
Upvote!
Grade 1 animals operate on a different level. When TTL looked Authentic in the eye,TTL received a knock to his chin ( using boxing term) that really he hasn’t received this year from a lower level horses he has been facing all year.
It was more about pace. Yes, Authentic had class, but so did 4-time G1 winner Tiz the Law. If your argument was that Authentic had beaten better horses, the only race that applies is the San Felipe. In that race, he beat Honor AP, who next out beat Authentic in the G1 SA Derby. He also beat BCJ winner Storm the Court in the San Felipe; StC didn’t show much as a 3yo.
Authentic had class, but the pace advantage was the deciding factor.
I agree Eddie on a lot if not all your points. Pace is so significant when you have a talented grade 1 animal like Authentic dictating the race. Once King G, Blue Grass Winner, and Thousand Words left the field, in my view, the race was all but over except the racing. Once Smith blew the start and dropped HAP that far back, I was 100% confident it was completely over. Also, with the Derby Point system, the sprinter types no longer compete in the KD which makes speed or tactical racing more significant in the running of the KD.
Yup. Seven straight winners having been on or near the early lead (including MaxSec as a winner).
I just watched the race replay keying on Max Player …boy, he ran well. He’s so talented and consistent – such a cool little horse.
I’m not as frustrated anymore…well, yes I am, but I’m back to being happy with HAP again. I know I sounded disappointed …and I was. That’s racing, I suppose.
He as too far back!
Yes he was, Blake, but he wouldn’t have been had he been handling the track. H
Was this a dream?……..11-1?……….2,2k………again……he never quits…….he idles on lead if he doesnt SEE ANOTHER,,…..ears didnt go up once………..
And the best horse in the crop is HAP……..please run him in preakness……….i will bet the most ive ever bet
I keep reading that HAP is a grinder – but is that true? I look at that as a big negative…like being a plodder, which he isn’t
Betsy, I’ve read in more than one article that Curlin was described as a grinder, and he didn’t do so bad…lol. As I understand it, a grinder just keeps coming, wears down their opponents. The articles pointed out that Curlin had a high cruising speed, which could wear down opponents who just couldn’t keep up with him. It doesn’t sound like a compliment, I know, but I believe it refers to a strong, steady, hopefully fast, horse who does not tire easily. I too was rooting for HAP, but he’ll be back to conquer another day.
Solo, I love that description – thanks! Curlin was awesome !
Betsy, people can use the term pejoratively or not, in accordance with their intentions. Without knowing what they mean by using the word — what real world events they intend it to denote — you can’t hardly decide whether to agree or disagree, much less evaluate it as good or bad.
Regardless, you know that Honor AP is strategically and tactically versatile, certainly not one-paced and willing to come from the clouds to try to win, if needed. If someone pejoratively labels him a grinder, you can always give ’em the one fingered salute.()
Or I can block them, Peri, lol. Then they can talk down to me and be rude, thinking they’re hurting me when actually I have no idea that they’re even talking to me!
Betsy, a plodder is a horse that keeps the same pace all the way. A slow, methodical gainer. Honor A. P. doesn’t not have an electric turn of foot either. Neither of the above describe Honor A. P.’s style of running, he is more a grinder with a high cruising speed.
Honor A. P. has already won a Grade 1 race, his future is secure.
The only number missing on my tickets was 18. At the top of the stretch I thought Tiz the Law had it. Then Authentic found another gear. It reminded me of Swaps beating Nashua.
I thought of Onion beating Secretariat in the Whitney and Keen Ice beating American Pharoah in the Travers. Seeing those great horses in second place unable to get to the winner made me question my vision. But it happened–then and now.
I felt the same, Jiffy
In case anyone is interested, I got nothin.’ Didnt see that coming at all. Another pedigree theory down the drain. I have nothing to say about the race.
Well, if you ever do have anything to say, I am interested! And you were right, Steve. I didn’t have to worry about Secretariat’s record.
I was absolutely convinced that Authentic couldn’t go a mile and a quarter. I never even considered him, but I have to say he ran a good race. I was disappointed because I love Tiz the Law and his people, I really wanted them to win, and I thought they would. This afternoon I was trying to remember if I ever felt emotionally involved with a Derby horse who looked lso likely to win. The only one I could think of was Honest Pleasure. Not an auspicious parallel, but they turned out to have more in common than I realized.
I think two 1 1/4 mile races 4 weeks apart was more than Tiz could
pull off. No other horse had that asked of him. Authentic had 7 weeks
off. So, Tiz’s second place finish was actually pretty good. If he had the mojo
he had in the Travers where Manny was winding him down at the end, he
might have won the Derby. So, was the Travers a mistake in hindsight?
Hard to know.
What I didn’t see coming was Authentic liking the distance. Like many, I thought
it would be HAP that ran him down if anyone did. I still think Tiz is the best 3 year old.
The next big question is where do they go next with Tiz? I think Baffert will
go to the Preakness with Authentic. Tiz is only one race up on Authentic for
3 year old honors. So, does Tagg skip the Preakness and go for the BCC where Max
awaits him? Lots of food for thought. Glad I am not making the decision.
Good analysis Paula. Moreover, Tiz the Law has been in training 2 months longer than Authentic this year. It’s been a long year for Tiz the Law. The connections of Tiz the Law will have to decide on the best way to reach the Breeders’ Cup Classic.
Davids, so good to see you here. Thank you. I would expect
them to point for the BCC and skip the Preakness. I think Tiz
needs a break. I know people think I am wrong and it could
cost him 3 year old honors if he doesn’t win the BCC. He would
be facing Max and Improbable. I just think another race so soon,
even thought it is shorter, is not a great idea. He is still one up on
Authentic.
Paula, I think the connections of Tiz the Law are between a rock and a hard place, as you suggested above. The Preakness Stakes is not ideally placed for Tiz the Law, and others, who ran in the Kentucky Derby but the Preakness does appear perfect for Art Collector. Danger.
Conversely, skipping the the Preakness means forfeiting the chance to cement the 3 year old championship, having to find an alternative prep for the Breeders’ Cup Classic or, taking a chance of a long lay-off between the Kentucky Derby and the Breeders’ Cup Classic.
Exactly! Running the Travers at that time was a head scratcher for me. I even asked Steve a few weeks ago if he thought that would be an issue. I have no doubt he wins if he is fresher. Even with that said he ran decent but Authentic had just a little more juice at the end!
I agree Blake. I think Barclay Tagg desperately wanted the
Travers and that was a deciding factor. It is a NY race
after all and has a lot of meaning. I do think it may have cost
him the Derby but of course, no way to know that for sure. If
this was a horse from the old days, I wouldn’t be saying that but
horses just need 5-6-7 weeks between races now. Both races were
1 1/4. I also do not think he liked the track. I didn’t love the way he
was moving in comparison to Authentic. Plus, Authentic ran closer to the
rail. Great job by Johnny Velazquez. I felt bad for Manny. I felt bad for
all of Tiz’s connections.
Yes Paula, agree on all points. Johnny Velasquez had the right plan. Moreover, Tiz the Law was negatively affected by the scratching of Art Collector.
I think all Tiz the Law’s people wanted the Travers very badly. Jack Knowlton is from Saratoga, and I read that the original goal when Sackatoga Stable was formed was to stand in the winner’s circle at Saratoga, regardless of how minor the race was. Imagine what it would be like for them to be there after winning the track’s biggest race. Also, they had already won the Derby and Preakness with Funny Cide. The Travers and the Belmont were the two that he didn’t get, and Tiz the Law took care of that. Of course, they would have liked another Derby–who wouldn’t?–but I don’t think they have any regrets about the Travers.
Shocked me because I never thought Authentic would get the distance, yet I feared him on an easy lead. Also, I’m not sure what to think about HAP, while I’m very happy with Max
Don’t be too hard on yourself, Steve. When Art Collector and King Guillermo came out of the race it became much less combative for the eventual winner. Moreover, I remember you were concerned that Tiz the Law was running in, and winning, a 10f race prior to the Kentucky Derby.
Hopefully, Art Collector makes it to the Preakness Stakes along with Tiz the Law and Authentic. Don’t miss the Prix du Moulin de Longchamp on Sunday. Should be an absolute cracker of a race.
I doubt he’ll run, but HAP belongs up there…
Tagg doesn’t want to run in the Preakness.
Steve, a friend in another board told me that HAP is not likely to make the BC Classic on points – unless he wins his next start, which could pretty much only be the JCGC, Awesome Again or Preakness. Do you think there’s any chance they don’t bother attempting to make the BC?
The Prix du Moulin was indeed a good race. Did it play out as you expected?
Well, I thought Persian King would be tough to beat but was hoping Pinatubo may be returning to his form of last year. Siskin, had an outside hope. When Pinatubo started to fly the heart started pumping but Persian King is top class and had the advantage. Fantastic race.
Please overlook my understated comments. I think I’m experiencing sensory overload. Way too much time spent on HRN in the past 30hrs.
I too was stunned, Steve. Between Thousand Words flipping and breaking Jimmy Barnes’s arm, and being scratched, and Authentic raising a ruckus in the winner’s circle, knocking Bob Baffert to the ground, to the empty stands at Churchill—what a wacky Derby season this has been. It’s hard not to be deflated now that the Derby is finally over…..On to the Preakness. And don’t you think the Breeder’s Cup is going to be juicy with the good young guns taking on some darned good elders?
PS I’m still bummed that my beloved Curlin didn’t have any progeny that have panned out on the Derby trail.
I didn’t know about Authentic’s shenanigans in the winner’s circle. Just saw a video. Crazy! Baffert starts the year with his two best being Authentic and Thousand Words. Then Nadal and Charlatan get all the attention, then Uncle Chuck. Next comes the suspension, then Thousand Words has his paddock moment…and Baffert wins the Derby with Authentic. Who needs to write a script?
Thought that the Curlin 2yo Pico d’Oro might do well yesterday, but no. Fifth place in the Iroquois.
Yeah, you just can’t make this stuff up regarding yesterday’s Derby, or the whole darn trail in this Year of Pandemic. Saw Pico’s race and was disappointed. So to cheer myself up, I’ve been following Curlin’s 2yo’s, and there seems to be some good ones. Say hello to Nick Carraway for me, if you happen to bump into him…lol.
Authentic ran huge and proved that an Into Mischief can get 1 1/4. I also didn’t see that coming Steve. Looking forward to the Preakness and Art Collector in the winners circle.
Interesting……..John had nothing to say and Mike didn’t mention being cut off……
John Shirreffs, trainer, Honor A. P., fourth
“(Jockey) Mike (Smith) said he was laboring at the beginning, that he just wasn’t getting a hold of the track.”
Mike Smith, jockey, Honor A. P.
“I was proud that he still put in an effort and ran OK. It wasn’t his best race by no means. I never dreamed he would struggle with the track. When we saw him train over the track this week, he was bouncing over it, but it was sloppy. He seemed to like that. His deepier, cuppier track – he has a big ‘ol flat foot. He just couldn’t get a hold out of it.”
That was indeed a gutsy race, if he wasn’t getting a grip on the track. After he hit 42mph in his debut race at Del Mar, the fact that he didn’t even approach that maximum speed a year later, when he made his move on the far turn, I think lends credence to the theory that he wasn’t relating well to the Churchill Downs track today.
Peri, the problem with that is that HAP did get to running, so it was only early on that he was having trouble…
I’m not sure what to think about him. People on Twitter made it sound like HAP was smashed by NYT, but really he was just cut off – badly, but not catastrophic. The biggest issue was that it took him awhile to get a feel for the track, and by then it was too late. He did make a long, sustained run, but seemed to run out of gas.
Mike’s comments make me think HAP needs hard, WC tracks…and I’m not quite sure if he really proved he loves 1 1/4
Since we (and a few others) have beat this topic senseless over on Honor AP’s page at HRN, let me refer people there if they want to read knowledgeable opinions and reasoned discussion, rather than summarize or rehash it here. I am pleased to say we pretty much all came around to the same understanding.
That was pretty much what I thought would happen. I actually tripled my bet once Thousand Word scratched. People forgot that Authentic is a May foal and was mentally childish several prior races. Baffert even said he was a goof ball in the Haskel. Racing luck was needed as HAP probably was second best with a cleaner break. TLL finally left NY and he got beat again.
BTW no way Authentic should have been 8/1. I pegged him at 3-1/7-2. Has Tiz the Law beaten a Grade 1 horse when winning a race?
Gouverneur Morris, twice G1-placed, is the best horse Tiz the Law has beaten, on the assumption that winning a G1 race is a valid, useful standard. Given how races for two and three year olds obtain the G1 classification – based on criteria or purse size and prior years conditions and outcomes – the grade status of a race doesn’t tell us anything about the quality of a three year old horse in relation to the qualities of other three year olds.
Tiz beat TWO grade 1 winners yesterday. 🙂 🙂
By some logic, he actually beat three. While Storm the Court has never beaten Honor AP or Authentic, Honor AP and Authentic beat each other, and now Tiz the Law beats Honor AP. Plainly, Tiz the Law beats Authentic too!
Good call, Geoff. Even though I defended his much criticized win in the Haskell (final eighth of 13 1/5 and Late Pace fig of 98 aren’t disqualifying for the Derby; had never lost when he got the early lead), I talked myself out of using him. His workouts were telling, particularly the 1m work.
I have not seen a high quality horse take less apparent pride in his winnings than Authentic. Am I the only one?
Don’t miss the Prix du Moulin de Longchamp. Should be one of the highlights of the year and drug free.
I didn’t, and it was. Pinatubo made a good and redemptive run for it, but not good enough.
Tiz didn’t do anything wrong in my opinion, Authentic just would not let him go by. Authentic deserves the credit for the heart of a champion. I know it was a fast track but I think this was the 6th fastest Derby ever, so it isn’t like Tiz ran slow or just didn’t fire.
I am still in shock that Authentic did what he did in the stretch. Furthermore, he did not start well either. I actually thought he was done at the start because we all knew they wanted the lead and his start wasn’t optimal, but he still came on. You just have to give the horse credit, it was an amazing run.
Hats off to ProVet for his bet on Authentic in the final Future Wager. And to anyone else who had him.
thanks……i still dont get it…….8-1 and 11-1 in a 3 horse race?…….too high……..i pounced
The post-time odds were unbelievable, too. The last time the odds on a 2nd choice were as high (against a favorite at 6-5 or lower) was in 1943. Do you remember that one? 🙂
No excuse for Tiz. I think he ran his race. Just that Authentic ran his biggest race ever.
Definitely Authentic’s biggest race ever. No complaints about the trip. Maybe without the Travers behind him, Tiz may have had more speed in the stretch. We’ll never know. It’ll be interesting to see who goes to the Preakness out of this race.
According to Trakus:
Tiz the Law in the Travers ran the final quarter in 24.53 secs, averaging 37.0 mpg, after running the mile in 1:36:30, crossing the wire in 2:00.83 for 6701 feet.
In the Kentucky Derby, he ran the final quarter in 26.01 secs, averaging 34.8 mpg, after running the mile in 1:34:72, crossing the wire in 2:00.73 for 6686 feet.
Tiz ran the final Derby quarter in 25 3/5, same as Authentic but for the 1/4 length he lost in the stretch.
‘Tiz true. Those extra 23 feet he ran were the difference between placing and winning by a couple of lengths —though I suspect had he more time to recover from the Travers, or hadn’t run it, that would have been enough too.
no,,,,,,,he regressed………like i thought………i expect a 103 or so beyer….
He averaged 101 in his previous four races. Not really much of a regression.
Totally off topic, but I thought you might know: why was Cezanne scratched, and your thought on this horse?
I was also curious about Cezenne’s scratch
OK. Who had Mr. Big News in the trifecta?
I did but with 16 and 17.
Ouch!
Steve, I know that lots of us are hoping you will give a break-down of the race. Who would have believed this scenario, right up until the final minute! If this doesn’t encapsulate the highs and lows of racing, I don’t know what does!
It went like i thought…….i said Tiz would hang……..hap lost all chance
I thought you said he’d lug in. 🙂
What can I say? HAP had a terrible start and ran a big race. Kudos to Authentic.
I was wrong. Authentic can win the Derby.
Honor AP and Max Player both ran with honor, even if HAP ran about twice as far as all the others. Max I thought in particular made great progress. The switch to SA seems to have been the right thing for him. If they both come out well, I’m sure they will go on to greater accomplishments.
HAP will win more big races – He lost nothing in defeat. I didn’t even pay attention to Max, I admit – where did he finish?
Fifth!
Not bad for Max!
HAP will pretty much always cover more ground because he usually goes wide…..but the problem this time was that he also was pinched back at the start and completely lost position. Mike’s other option would have been to rush the colt, and that would have been a huge mistake. He did the right thing and let HAP settle down.
I’ve seen people say that HAP wasn’t handling the track, that he was climbing……did you see that?
Anyway, I would love it if HAP were to run in the JCGC – rather than the Preakness or the other option someone mentioned – the Awesome Again.
The Trakus charts are interesting, assuming they are accurate.
Honor AP (35.9 mph) and Max Player (36.1 mph) ran the fastest final quarters (25.31 and 25.13 secs, respectively. Mr Big News (35.2 mph/25.77 sec), Authentic (35.0 mph/25.91 sec), Enforceable (34.9 moh/25.93 sec) and Tiz the Law (34.8 mph/26.01 sec) followed.
Honor AP ran the farthest of all, 85 feet more than Enforceable, 57 feet more than Max Player, 26 more than Tiz the Law and 49 feet more than Authentic.
I watched the start repeatedly just now -I think HAP was really cut off, but he wasn’t slammed into like in the SB. About climbing – I wonder if it’s more that HAP didn’t break great, got cut off and then needed to settle down…… Climbing would have been Max Player in his debut, lol.
Races like this are why Andy Serling often says that win/loss records are overrated. I’ve seen on HRN people saying how HAP is now 2/6 in his career, etc……as if that’s a bad thing. You have to look at races in context, something some people don’t know how to do.
Many people don’t like to do anything resembling reasoning from evidence and disagreeing with the majority — or a vocal minority. I find it helpful to continually remind myself that racehorses’ accomplishments are a team effort, where most members of the team are human.
Honor AP broke equally as fast as NY Traffic, and they took their first few jumps with the same quickness, but when NY Traffic veered out with the third jump, it was telegraphed by his posture on the second jump. So to me it looked like Honor AP had anticipated contact, because he wasn’t as far forward on the third and fourth jumps as NY Traffic and was aimed slightly toward the fence. The SB experience may have made him leery about breaking fast, or he just saw the crash coming – maybe even on the initial jump – and shortened up (again) to avoid catastrophe.
Maybe questions about the starts could be posed to Mike, to hear what his sense to them is?
I thought Max Player may have been described as climbing early on, given his high knee action visible in the first quarter. But he had a more difficult trip than Chickalicious – though shorter – and finished VERY well. It looked like maybe Honor AP didn’t like the dust heading into the first turn and maybe ran with his head higher than usual, at least until he made his move on the far turn, but I wouldn’t swear to it. The camera angles don’t make it easy to compare with his workouts.
Regardless, Honor AP’s future is assured – and probably Max’s soon will be as well.
hap is the best…….trust the pro
Peri, Livewire is saying the same thing, that maybe HAP was affected by Cezanne slamming into him. It’s a shame John didn’t really have any comments as now we’ll never get anything from him. I’m not going to search for the start, but if I run into it, I’ll watch it again to see how HAP breaks.
I’m honestly not thinking about HAP’s post-racing future – I care more about his future on the track. I don’t think he’s as polished as I thought….he needs to grow up. Max…too bad he’s gotten no attention as it seems he ran really well. I wonder where he will go next.
he is the best……they will find out
Not convinced. Regardless of his start, why was he LAST after a half and 9th after a mile? My only concern with him was that he never left Cal until this week. HAP did not have the resume of a Justify or a Cal Chrome. He needed to get out of state and race more.
After looking at both NBC and TVG footage, I can’t see that Honor AP ever shifted into his distinctive extended running gait. So he ran the longest race, being cut off at the start, with one arm tied behind his back, and finished a good fourth. That’s pretty amazing, actually. I can’t think less of his talent after the race, but I can disparage his handling and/or the quarantine protocols that prevented him from having a fast work or prior race over the surface to give him a real chance to learn how to most effectively move over it.
Looking at the Trakus data. First time I had the gumption to do so since I knew it could be upsetting. So, HAP’s quarters were in succession, 24.2,23.55, 23.89, 24.21, 25.31. Obviously the first and last are the stretch which certainly adds credence to he was not getting hold of the track down the stretch. HAP is not a horse to run a final quarter in over 25 seconds if he is being asked. Also interesting is how many lengths he made up regardless. The what if is what makes this so bittersweet, had he been able to take hold of the track, one second off the final quarter has him winning this race.
The other thing of interest is that both Honor Code’s attained an average mph of nearly 36. HAP was 35.9 and Max Player was 36.1, no other horse even came close.
Just some food for thought. This horse ran 37 1/3 more yards than the winner.
THOUSAND WORD LATE SCRATCH! moderate pace most likely now!
Thousand Words Out
I just heard…poor horse! Thank goodness he looks like he’s ok…
Jim Barnes broke his arm in the incident
Well, HAP has been cold all day and he’s still cold. I’ll never understand the odds, but so be it.
Good luck!
Barring any unforeseen circumstances just before the Derby, these will be my bets:
Win bets: Honor AP, Major Fed, Attachment Rate
Exactas: Tiz the Law over the above three (Tiz/HAP is a saver bet)
And if all fail, I have my March KDFW on Max Player at 71-1.
Many thanks to Steve and “the community” for giving me added confidence for my Derby wagering. 🙂
My final list in order of finish:
Tiz the Law
Honor A. P.
Thousand Words
NY Traffic
Trying to make sense of the current tote board. No horse is over 51-1, even though several should be close to 100-1. There’s always a bias toward longshots in the Derby, but this is ridiculous. The exactas often tell a truer story. Right now, the Tiz/HAP $2 exacta would pay $19. If you can’t bring yourself to bet Tiz to win at less than even money, you get 8-1 on the Tiz/HAP exacta. That’s not so bad. I was wrong (so far anyway) about HAP’s win odds. He’s 8-1 currently. That seems like fair value if you believe he has better than an 11% chance of winning. Exactas with Tiz on Max Player ($44), Thousand Words ($37), Ny Traffic ($35), and Authentic ($28) all seem too low.
These odds are insane. HAP at 8-1, barely lower than Authentic and not far odd from Money Moves? MM lower than Max ?
I’m sorry, but these bettors are just out of their minds…
You should LOVE 8-1.
I love it for my father, if he did bet like he said he would, but I’m not betting – so this feels like real disrespect.
Someone I’m friendly with on HRN tried to make a case for MM, though not as a win candidate, but…although I know the race came up fast, I just can’t see it. I suppose he might be better than some in the field, but to win? He should be 40-1.
14-1 on Money Moves is insane. Cant believe HonorA.P. is still 8-1.
There’s been so much talk about his allowance race vs older horses. It’s still just an allowance race! Has there ever been, in modern times, an untested colt bet down this much?
When was the last time a horse won the Ky. Derby without ever having run in a stakes? And with 3 lifetime races. I guess this year anything is possible.
HAP is now 9-1…..wow. Do people really dislike this horse because of the Shared Belief that they’ve forgotten how good he was before?
MM at 16-1…Max at 20-1. Ridiculous.
Hi Eddie… I would wait until post time to see the real (definitive) odds… BTW did you watch the debut of Essential Quality in the 4th race at Churchill? He won despite all the hiccups in the homestretch… the son of Tapit seems to be a solid Derby prospect for Godolphin … his pedigree shows a lot of inbreeding (to Secretariat, Fappiano, In Reality, Northern Dancer) and is a descendant of La Troienne no less..
And trained by the inspired Brad Cox. Essential Quality looked like a very happy two year old today… 🙂
Yes I did, Nelson. A very impressive performance — a Tapit winning at 6f first time out! But it goes to show that a horse can get in trouble even when forwardly placed at the top of the stretch.
Re: the odds and bet timing. I won’t make my bets until at least 6 pm. I don’t think odds will change very much, though. There’s SO much money in the pools.
You are right … with more than $13.5 million in the winning pool already the odds won’t change much.
I thought Honor A.P. would be lower that the current 8 to 1 and Authentic greater than 9 to 1… same for Thousand Words … but the public know and bet Bob Baffert no matter what I guess…
Good luck today Steve. Let’s hope you and I and “big daddy” Dale have something to smile about when it’s all said and done. I really want Tiz to put on a show. He has to be one of the classiest, hardest working and flat out most beautiful looking colts I’ve seen. Looking forward to this, and I know you are as well. Enjoy it to most, I’ll be back for your recap.
I placed my bets yesterday before reading your final thoughts but came to much the same conclusions and strategy as you have laid out. We’ll see what happens! Who would have thought Gamine, Swiss Skydiver, Speech and Donna Veloce would be bested. I have a small amount of hope and money, that Storm the Court can last. Good luck Steve!
The 3rd of the 3 longshots referenced above is the one I think will emerge the winner. If expected favorite Tiz The Law emerges the winner. The ice cold exacta will be an all law enforcement affair (Tiz The Law/Major Fed)
Tiz The Law has an impressive resume. Major Fed has an equally impressive resume but not one reflecting multiple graded stakes wins. His resume is one that reflects an ability to perform creditably in spite of adversities. In just about every start, Major Fed has never had the luxury of a clean trip.
Debut – Unsuitable distance; Altered Out
Maiden Win – 3W1st turn/5W2nd turn/6W1/4 pole
Risen Star – 3W both turns/5W1/4 pole
LA Derby – Off slow;6W5 2nd turn/8W 1/4 pole
Matt Winn – Widest 1st; Pushed wider by impact heading into 1st turn
Indiana Derby – In Tight at start;4W 2nd turn; brushed
The prep comprising the most starters was the LA Derby. Of the 14 starters Major Fed ran by 10 to secure 4th by 4 3/4L. This is after being slowly out and having to go 6W for his stretch run. No other entrant in the KD field has passed 10 opponents in any race. Major Fed closed from 12L off the leaders on a speed bias surface in what was his 4th start and over a distance of 9 1/2F.
There is a small but significant bit of information that has been overlooked. Major Fed has never contested a route race in which the internal fractions went below 47 & 1:12. During his troubled trips, there was no pace for him run into. The KD is Likely to feature a 46 & 1:11 pace. I concur with Steve that with a good to decent break and a strong pace, Major Fed should be closing willingly from mid pack and could highlight what Tiz The law.
Hey, Crossfire. That’s an interesting point about MF never being in a race where the 1/2 and 3/4 were below 47 and 1:12. But guesses about what might be the early fractions in a Derby are always difficult. I do like the fact that MF was close to the leader at the stretch call in his final prep. That’s historically a MUST for a Derby win.
I do think he’s worth a shot in the exacta under Tiz. It’s currently paying $125!!
I’m going to go with Tiz the Law, NyTraffic, Sole Volante, South Bend, Honor AP. Not sure how I’ll bet these but that’s my plan. I also want to include Mr Big News. Anyway, it should be a good race. Hope for the chance to see each horse to show his best and I’m really hoping to see Tiz the Law win. On another note, the Oaks was a good race. I’m guessing that Swiss Skydiver’s schedule may have caught up with her. She’s really a nice horse to like. I wonder if the Preakness is still under consideration for her.
I forgot to include Attachment Rate in my list.
I thought that SS ran a pretty good race. Hope she goes in the Preakness.
Tiz The Law, HAP, Sole Volante, Attachment Rate
Nice super, JanBer. Good luck! I’ve not progressed much since early March in figuring out this Derby.
Hi, Steve. I just found you and a lot of friends over here. Glad to see everyone. I’ve liked Tiz the Law all along–I think he’s the best horse and I’ll be cheering for him. I suspect this may be an even better day for New York breeding than people expect–I like NY Traffic to be second. After that, I’ll say Honor A.P. and Thousand Words. I wish everyone a safe and beautiful Derby. And they better play “My Old Kentucky Home.”
Glad you found us, Jiffy. Hope you come back for all the upcoming columns, just like in the Bloodhorse days. And new Derby Rankings is just around the corner in Jan.
Wow! That puts a new perspective on the time frame. I never stopped to think that in four months we’ll be thinking about the next Derby.
I’m sorry, just venting. My friend is literally freaking out about Mike Smith and I’m trying to calm her down (on Twitter). She’s really a cool person, and I like her a lot, but she loathes Smith. Maybe she’s right, maybe he’s given many bad rides at Del Mar – I don’t know as I don’t follow DM. All I know is that she thinks he’s lazy, unmotivated and arrogant…and she’s already priming me for a nightmare tomorrow. She didn’t even see the Alysheba Stakes and she claims Mike blamed McKinzie – instead of himself. I mean, it’s ridiculous. How often have we heard a jockey say that they knew their horse didn’t have it? Most of the time it’s true. She claims he blamed HAP for the SB and wants a jock I’ve never heard of to ride him. I’m getting more than a little frustrated – I want to make her feel better, but it’s not working. I’m already going to be nervous tomorrow – I don’t want to think about this, sigh.
Xanax may help.
Or a Derby win tomorrow, lol.
I’m still confused about the posts, lol. What PP is HAP leaving from?
David, any reason for the Steve Byk/Gary Young reference? My friend might need a mint julep – actually I’m very calm. Tomorrow will be a different story, lol
McKinzie performance explained, ready for retirement.
Or at least a change of plans. He doesn’t seem to be up to the best Classic horses now, so maybe keep him sprinting…
Post 14, if no new scratches.
Thanks!!
Refer your friend to Steve Byk “At the Races,” in particular the interview with Gary Young. Alternatively, discussion on Mint Julep recipes may have a calming affect for both of you.
Betsy, she is totally wrong about
Mike Smith. He is a great rider and
In these big races he is in it to win
it.
You better stay away from that friend, Betsy. I think of Mike Smith as just the opposite of what she described, and I’ve always admired him because he does take responsibility. But if a horse doesn’t feel right to a rider, it’s simply being honest to say so.
Wow. The Great Haskin and the Great Secretariat both at the same site. Two GOATS for the price of one. Hopefully we get a normal racing season in 2021. If so Steve’s Derby Dozen here will be incredible. BH was a good run but this really feels like it is the best fit yet. I’m excited. Good to see familiar names and new people here already.
Hey, Dr. D. Great to have you back even with your shortened name. And thank you very much for the kind words. Its great to be here.
Good to see you here. Who wins the Kentucky Derby?
Glad you could join us Doc. Wouldn’t be the same watering hole without you and we did save you a seat.
Hard to disagree with your assessments. However, I can’t see Sole Volente hitting the board but you could be right, I am no genius at this.
Even if Tiz the Law wins, there are still 2nd, 3rd & 4th place to hit the exotics which should pay well.
Good luck everyone.
p.s. I do believe Attachment Rate has a shot and no one should sleep on N.Y. Traffic on hitting the board.
I think it is more likely that Honor AP is out of the money then it is that Tiz the Law loses.
We will find out soon enough… darn rains came in yesterday, that could change everything 🙁
There are no geniuses. You know the saying, it takes a horse to make a man feel like an ass.
My 3 longshots are Necker Island, Mr. Big News and Storm The Court.
Necker island –
It is my dream to make my home a tropical island just like Mr. Branson. The owner of King G reminded us that dreams are free. Palace Malice had the blinkers fitted for the KD. Necker Island will have them removed. Very often the removal of this equipment result in a form reversal.
Mr. Big News –
He is an example of an overbred colt. (Giants Causeway sire/Galileo dam sire) Bred too good to be so bad. Not as catchy a RED IN THE PED. In all seriousness, if this colt emerges the winner the reflection will not be on his PPs but rather his pedigree. In addition to having Secretariat in his pedigree. His pedigree also reflects inbreeding to full siblings -Glorious Song and Angelic Song. Who is Count Turf?
Storm The Court –
The 2YO champ that hasn’t won as 3YO. He hasn’t even been close. KD winners Sea Hero and Mine That Bird finished 7th and last in their BCJs and never won a 3YO race ahead of the KD. Storm The Court like Game Winner won the BCJ and hasn’t won as a 3YO race ahead of the KD. Game Winner finished off the board. Storm The Court should do likewise. There is the small matter of his sire Court Vision defeated the great Goldikova @67/1 and STC winning the BCJ @45/1. Tiz The Law is as big a favorite as Goldikova. Given the turf influence in STC pedigree the CD surface could transform him.
STC has allowed weight to Nadal, Honor A P and Authentic in defeats to them.
Storm the Court surprisingly got a “1” Thoro-Graph figure in the Ohio Dderby finoshing third. That is outrageously fast.
Great column Steve. Always a pleasure to listen to you on Steve Byk’s show.
Thanks very much, Jim.
Glad I found this site. Always followed Derby Dozen but never commented . Have always followed the Derby since the sixties.
G/ood to see you, Kenny, and thanks for following. Please feel free to comment and offer your opinions on here. No controversies and nastiness on this site.
HAP is absolutely blooming – he looks phenomenal again this morning.
Steve, is there any reason why they are leaving 3 PP empty? This means HAP will be in PP 17. I personally don’t think it will matter – if HAP loses, it won’t be because that post has a poor history (in a completely different gate). My friend is furious, though.
HAP’s post position number is determined by where he is in relation to the other horses, regardless of how many inside stalls are left empty. With the scratch of King Guillermo, HAP’s PP is 15.
They are tryng to keep the inside horsees, especially the No. 1 horse off the rail and give him a straight course out of the gate. Post 1 used to be deadly with the old start. This wont affect Honor A.P. at all. I just want to see him and Tiz hook up at the top of the stretch and see finally who is the better horse. Watching HAP in the morning, he has a stride on him that is awesome.
Steve, yeah, that was my thought also – after I posted my message. I suppose they also wanted to avoid the way outside. It makes sense, actually. Well, now Finnick is out, so I suppose HAP has 18. Musical posts, lol.
I hope we see that, too, Steve. There’s nothing like the most exciting two minutes in sports, and we’ve been waiting for this for months. We’ve got a fast track, a fairly small field considering…hopefully no excuses. One of these days, I hope to see that stride in person!
Not one expert, or fan…….brings up the fact TIZ the law tries to lug in every race……..not one person has said he gets rank behind horses………he’s just PERFECT?
THIS is who the horse IS………he runs his last race, he WINS………BUT lets know who the horse IS……..
Watch his races…..in traffic, he always has a strong strong hold…..this is because he is rank/wants to go……this is different from RELAXING…….in his only loss, he was trying to get in, jock steered his head out, causing him to change to wrong lead…….he lost…..
His head is always out, because he tries to lug in……
So, they know this right?……Do you ride him on rail? Behind horses?…..Heck no……you put him where he likes to be. OUTSIDE…….horses relax better on outside…..but if you do this, you can lose ground…….4 wide around both turns, can mean lengths….
Lets say authentic gets lead on rail…….he can run 6 lengths shorter right?……
It maybe worse…….what if field is bunched….like a slow pace, and horses in derby are usually asked early……how wide will TIZ go?……Holding a horse hard takes energy out of a horse……thats why RELAXING is so important……
Hap RELAXES well……huge stride……..mile and quarter big plus……What if TIZ lugs in stretch…..jockey correcting him, slows you down….
Win or lose, no one even bringing up TIZ’S faults…….is not knowing the horse…..
yes…his head is out because he is being steered out…………yes, he is held hard because he wants to go…….hard held takes energy away…….
But they know…..and i know……he wants to be wide, on outside……so how many lengths is 4 wide around both turns?……i’m saying he might lose more…….
If you read it, I said the only knock on the horse is his tendency to drift out and cock his head out. Once again, he drifts, not lugs. Lugging out suggests there is a physical problem and he sure hasnt exhibited any physical problems. I wouldnt want to see him drift or lug or cock his head in the Derby, but he always manages to straighten hinself out and run straight to the wire. And I doubt he’ll be inside horses and rank from post 17. He should get a clear trip and relax brhind the leaders.
You have it wrong……he is trying to lug in……his head is out because you have to hold that rein……..if he was drifting out, his head would be in…….i’m right
Once again….you’re looking for an excuse to put down TTL. He’s won his races by an average of 4 lengths. A “lugging” horse doesn’t win by wide margins every race.
Authentic will not see the lead from that post unless he’s gunned. He’ll fizzle out by the time they hit the homestretch. We know you have future bets on Authentic and HAP…….your assessment of TTL is way off.
I won’t be betting a lot on this year’s Derby, but I’ll take a flyer on the trifecta and superfecta.
1) TIZ THE LAW
2) HONOR A. P.
3) ENFORCEABLE / MAJOR FED / MONEY MOVES / SOLE VOLANTE / NY TRAFFIC
4) same group as No. 3
Oh yes, and a $2 exacta on TIZ THE LAW over STORM THE COURT. A throwaway bet, but I’d hate myself if that comes in and I didn’t play the hunch.
Good luck, y’all.
Well, Steve, the outcome is ‘in the lap of the gods’ now. I’m just hoping for a cleanly run race without some hideous bottleneck calamity on the first turn or during the race. Fingers crossed, the new starting gate will eliminate a lot of these problems.
Tiz the Law appears the logical winner, but it’s a horse race and anything can happen. For me, the A. P. Indy line colts appear to have a stranglehold here. We’ll see how that plays out.
Thanks again Steve, the excitement builds. Good luck to all.
Tiz the Law vs. Honor A.P.
“Oh, East is East, and West is West, and never the twain shall meet,
Till Earth and Sky stand presently at God’s great Judgment Seat;
But there is neither East nor West, Border, nor Breed, nor Birth,
When two strong men stand face to face, though they come from the ends of the earth!”
— Rudyard Kipling, from “The Ballad of East and West
“Those who believe in telekinetics, raise my hand.”
― Kurt Vonnegut
We all have that one track announcer that makes a race special, maybe even two or three of them. But there is only one voice that fosters the excitement for the Derby before they start running and that voice belongs to Steve Haskin. His analysis has always been the most thorough, but it is his blending of every detail with the personal insight he has with all the trainers, clockers and trackside community that makes you feel so a part of the run up to this great event. I was having a difficult time getting into this Derby but with two articles, I am healed. I can’t wait for this race.
I don’t see Tiz the Law getting beat and I hope the weather goes as predicted and we have a fair track for this incredible horse to unleash his greatness, because he is a very special talent. If one or two of the others run the race of their career we just might see Tiz the Law pushed to record time. I felt Art Collector would have given Tiz his best challenge but now we have to wait and see if the others are going to move forward enough to push this vastly over talented NY Bred beauty. And now for the wagering
Like Steve, I see real value in a few shots that could make a Tiz Super very nice to cash.
Tiz the Law with Attachment Rate/Sole Volante/Winning Impression with Ny Traffic/Honor AP/Attachment Rate/Sole Volante/Winning Impression with Attachment Rate/Sole Volante/Winning Impression/Honor AP/Ny Taffic/ Max Player/Major Fed/ Enforceable. $96. You could in my opinion, trim 3rd place and just put Ny Traffic and Honor AP and it costs 42. You could, I won’t.
10 Trifecta Tiz The Law with Attachment Rate with Honor AP/Ny Traffic/Sole Volante/Max Player/Winning Impression. $50. This ticket reflects my confidence in Attachment Rate. Like Steve, I think he is sitting on breakout race. We’ll see about that.
Good luck to you all, I’m going to start planning for a small gathering in my back yard to watch the race in perfect 80 degree weather. All the Georgetown Beer you could imagine on ice, and some tasty vittles from the grill. Cheers everyone and a special thanks to you Steve for getting me fired up about this exciting race. Let’s hope Tiz puts on a great show.
Is that an invitation?
Eddy, for you, anytime my good man, anytime.
🙂
I’m cracking up. I’m listening to DRF live with Jay Privman and Marty McGee, so I asked a long HAP question. Jay was like “Betsy must be the President of the HAP fan club, because she’s always tweeting me about him. Her fingers must be bleeding after typing that”.
Wow, very revealing quotes from John. It certainly explains the long, slow works. It sounds like HAP was really bursting to run, because generally John has always described him as a cool customer. It’s no surprise – I think the lack of racing hurt HAP. He loves to run – or work fast – and he’s very competitive. I think that’s why he was getting to be a bit high strung.
**“Going into the Shared Belief, we were working on other things other than cranking him up for the race. We were working on his attitude a little bit,” Shirreffs said. “Trying to get him to behave a little better. He was starting to feel good and was getting a little difficult to handle. So we wanted to do everything we could to do to quiet him, calm him down, get him to relax.
“After the Shared Belief,” Shirreffs said. “We knew now it’s time to get ready for the Kentucky Derby and we’d have to train him differently.***
Great analysis, Steve. So happy to have found where to read your excellent work.
Thrilled to find we are on many of the same longshots
Good luck!
Thanks so much. Great to see you here
This may not be May, but it’s Churchill Downs and it’s the Kentucky Derby. It does bother me that this Derby (and Triple Crown) will forever carry an asterisk – especially if Tiz wins out. Still, there are some great stories in this Derby. How can you not have a little hope for Will Harbut’s great (or is it great-great) grandson? How about the birthday present horse? How much fun are the Sackatoga folks? At this point, I’m really hoping for a well-run race.
Oh, and thanks for mentioning Wiley’s great grandam on his sire’s side (Weekend Surprise) and great-great grandam on his dam’s side (Terlingua). One of the things that drew Peg & me to him in the first place – his inbreeding to Secretariat.
As a big fan of the Arc I do hope Ghiayytha is pointed to the race. But this post is not about Ghiayytha. It’s about Patrick Biancone. The trainer of Sole Volante the first longshot highlighted.
Trainer Biancone won the 1983 Arc with the great All Along and followed up in 1984 with Sagace. He would have completed a three peat in 1985 if not for the disqualification of Sagace due to an objection lodged by runner-up Rainbow Quest.
In an interview 5 months ago trainer Biancone specified that he bought Sol Volant because he reminded him of Sagace his 1984 Arc winner and the best horse he ever trained. In said interview he also specified that Sole Volant is a mile and a half horse.
Trainer Biancone has recently undergone treatment for cancer. Whilst a Sole Volante victory might not be the story of a superstar in the making. It would represent one of a trainer who battled a life threatening illness and emerged to win the KD with a gelding that remined him of the best horse he trained.
When trainer won the Arc in 1984. The runner-up was Northern Trick who is the 3rd dam of Sole Volante. Go Figure!
Reply
I believe they are leaning to the champion stakes. Biancone would be a great story.l
As a big fan of the Arc I do hope Ghiayytha is pointed to the race. But this post is not about Ghiayytha. It’s about Patrick Biancone. The trainer of Sole Volante first longshot highlighted.
Trainer Biancone won the 1983 Arc with great All Along and followed up in 1984 with Sagace. He would have completed a three peat in 1958 if not for the disqualification of Sagace due to an objection lodged by runner-up Rainbow Quest.
In an interview 5 months ago trainer Biancone specified that he bought Sol Volant because he reminded him of Sagace the best horse he ever trained. In said interview he also specified that Sole Volant is a mile and a half horse.
Trainer Biancone has recently undergone treatment for cancer. Whilst a Sole Volante victory might not be the story of a superstar in the making. It would represent one of a trainer who battled a life threatening illness and emerged to win the KD with a gelding that remined him of the best horse he trained.
When trainer won the Are in 1984. The runner-up was Northern Trick who is the 3rd dam of Sole Volants. Go Figure!
Just read how tight security is at Churchill Downs now. One recent visitor described these measures: drop-off car searched, her bag searched and tagged, temp taken, wrist tagged, driver’s license scanned, driver of drop-off car had license scanned.
King Guillermo has minor problem, looks like he’s out of the Derby
Just heard he has a fever and decision will be made by 6 on being scratched. Shame, I like this colt and think he had a good chance to be in the money. Sure owners will do what is right by the colt though.
If King G has a fever, they wouldn’t be waiting to decide. Anyway, there’s no report that it is a fever.
No public report. Wait and see…
The report of a fever was posted on twitter as the explanation why he did not work this morning and that he was going to be examined by a vet later in the morning. Have not heard or seen anything since.
Yes, they have reported that he came down with a fever on Wednesday afternoon and he’s been scratched from the Derby. The question remains, Why wasn’t he scratched on Wednesday afternoon?
I think that with the new gate it will be interesting. Post 17 with only 1 horse to his right will be fine. All the extra time and races and with all the learning the horses have been exposed to will work in Tiz’s favor. Impeccable pedigree and talent. I will be shocked if Tiz doesn’t win. No matter what went on this year he is so much the better I just don’t see him losing . But it’s a horse race and anything could happen. I’m boxing AP and Tiz just to save the ticket lolol . Then I’ll bet Authentic ❤️
Thats how i see it…….top 3 you like….and thousand words……only possible winners…….bet 8-1 hap and 11 to 1 authentic…..i like my chances
No way youre getting 8-1 on Honor A.P. and even 11-1 is high on Authentic. I know you dont like Tiz the Law because he has drifted out (not lugged out) in some races. Watch for Ny Traffic and King Guillermo to get bet down.
I bet with an hour left in last pool……..i got 8-1? and 11-1?…………nice huh?……i knew odds would be much lower…….
Obviously everyone likes Tiz……including me…….if he runs that last race he wins………..
There are reasons he can regress……….
AND HE TRIES TO LUG IN……..not out……thats why his head is out……jock is stering him out…….come on….look……he ends up on rail…..
Odds in the past 50 years for second choices to an odds-on Derby favorite: 4-1 in 1992, 3-1 in 1989, 2-1 in 1979, 5-1 in 1977, and 3-1 in 1976.
Now Ny traffic will really get down.
Particularly on the bottom of exacta tickets, with three straight 2nd-place finishes!
Post 17 is alway dead. No winners EVER. the outside is very bad. I predict no trifecta horses for 16-18. Big Balloons based on that.
I don’t think so this time. Tiz has a lot of speed out of the gate. He will be right there.
Plus, the new gate will help I think.
For one thing not the first time they have said nobody ever wins from a certain post. Two a brand new gate system not an auxiliary gate added in. This has been a crazy year for everything. I expect Tiz the Law to win but I also expect them to make him work for it.
“Ever” equates to a grand total of 41 starters since a starting gate was introduced in 1930. If you can provide a logical explanation of the 0 for 41, I will be happy to consider it. Regardless, as Laura just stated, this year’s single gate with 20 stalls is new. So history begins THIS year for post positions!
I’ll Have Another won from post #19 relatively recently, I’m not all that worried about post 17. I’d be a lot more worried if it was pp #1 or #2
Now it’s Authentic’s problem. 🙂 🙂
This really is a “bonus” run-down! I read it several times, which I think it deserves. Such great stuff, Steve. You and Lauren Stich are my betting gurus for the day. I have a question. I know how unlikely it is that this will happen, but in this year of unparalleled weirdness, it is impossible to rule anything out. What would be the outcome if Secretariat’s record were to be broken in either the Derby or the Preakness? With the skewed schedule and the fact that the colts are four months older than usual (let alone the certainty that the track will be lightening fast) have any impact as to how they might equate the win? Would Big Red’s record still stand?
Thank you very much, Cynthia. That is a very good point, but if someone breaks Red’s record it will go down as any other track record. People may talk about the time difference but thats as far as it will go
Thank you very much for your response, Steve. I hope it will not happen!
I dpnt see an early pace fastest enough to set up a track record. Remember, only one horse has come within 3/5 of his record and that was on the fastest track in Derby history.
Like Steve said, I just don’t see the early pace allowing for the record to be approached. Furthermore, even though I think TTL is awesome, I am not sure he has that in him even on a perfect set up. I am really curious how the new gate and the maturity of the horses is going to affect the race though. Great points!
I will hold that thought! Thanks very much, Steve, and you also, Ethan.
Thanks for this comprehensive summary Steve. I wish your long shots show up with a peak performance this Saturday.
The new, compact, 20-horse starting gate resets all stats related to Post Positions 15 to 20 from past Derbies. Gates 1 and 20 will be empty for the debut of the single starting gate and I am not worried about Tiz the Law breaking from PP 17 as this is not strictly the PP 17 from the past…
Tiz the Law and Honor A.P. will be conceding ground but, on the bright side, instead of being the targets these top horses now can be the hunters…
So, which horse will be able to defeat Tiz the Law and Honor A.P. if they are giving away at least five lengths.
It seems to me that there are six horses capable of scaring the chiefs especially if they have a decent trip: Max Player, Thousand Words, Sole Volante, Attachment Rate and King Guillermo.
Max Player has finished 5 and 7 lengths behind Tiz the Law in the Belmont Stakes and Travers respectively. The son of Code Honor got the PP 2 for the Derby but the horses at his left and right are slower so he will be able to gain a good early position. Will Max Player be able to close the gap to Tiz the Law with a change of trainer?… Bob Baffert won the Derby with War Emblem as a newcomer to his barn.
The million Dollar Boy, Thousand Words, was very lucky in the draw and could get a dream trip… I don’t know why the son of Pioneerof the Nile has a “Real Quiet” ring to me.
If any horse can “devour” the home stretch of Churchill Downs it is Sole Volante. It is not far fetched to see him regaining his Tampa Bay form and sneaking into the trifecta.
King Guillermo’s team could not have asked for a better draw. His natural speed and stamina makes him a very solid candidate to hit the board of the 2020 Kentucky Derby. Authentic and NY Traffic will have to give up ground to join the speedy son of Uncle Mo in the early stages. Unless Authentic is able to pull a “Big Brown” type of performance it would be very difficult to envision him winning the Derby for Baffert.
Steve has already made a good case for Attachment Rate who is primed to peak this Saturday.
My betting strategy is to use the Law and HAP in tandem and wheel them with a bunch of credible longshots for better payouts… everything points towards another logic outcome in the Kentucky Derby but it is worth trying to inflate the exotics anyways… after all “anything can happen in horse racing”.
Good luck to everyone and above all Happy Oaks and Derby days!
Excellent rundown, Nelson. Thank you
NELSON, I commend you for being able to think so clearly as this long national horse racing nightmare comes to an end. Same accolades to STEVE. He’s helped to make sense of this bizarro Derby season.
Tiz has at least a 75% chance of winning, so I’m not betting any horse to win. Maybe if I had a few thousand to bet! I do have a March future bet on Max Player at 71-1. I’ll be looking at maybe three or four horses to put under Tiz in the exacta. No idea which ones yet, though I think the payouts will be decent except for the Tiz/HAP exacta and maybe the probably overbet Baffert duo.
Good luck to everyone, and may all runners cross the finish line safe.
Good luck to you, Eddie!
Thanks Eddie for your kind words. I also commend you for providing this community with a fresh and witty human dimension. I really appreciate you sharing your profound knowledge of the Derby history.
Your contributions make this forum a much better site to visit.
As for the Derby predictions, we all know who are the fastest horses but not who will be the luckiest ones on D day…
We are fortunate to have the opportunity to enjoy another Derby and, again, to witness greatness in the form of a flying horses.
Best of luck to you … and stay safe 🙂
Hi Nelson, I agree with you with regard to the new starting gate. Hopefully, the new gate will provide a fairer start for all. Is your ‘secret weapon’ being put into practice for the Derby? Good luck.
Hi Davids ! thanks for your reply… yes, I am using my secret horse (and Jockey) in a trifecta box … If King Guillermo is out or not 100% the chances of my stealthy bomb are greater…just not publicizing that very much for obvious reasons.
warmest regards
I ALWAYS read your Derby rankings and I ALWAYS print out the final one and then watch the race on TV with your article in my hot little hands. It is just delightful to re-read what you’ve written about the contenders before and right after the race. You see and notice things that most media types don’t touch. You are a treasure, Steve.
That is very kind of you, Wanda. Thank you so much. I’m afraid my column will not look as good after the race 🙂
I love how you included Secretariat influences in pedigrees. I love pedigrees and so appreciate how you write about them! Thanks Steve!
I second this! I love to read about the pedigrees of the horses as well. Really cool seeing a little Riva influence in the Derby as well!
Hi Judy and Ethan… same feelings here. I have been following Secretariat in Derby pedigrees since the times of General Assembly.
Regarding Secretariat’s influence in the Kentucky Derby, Charismatic was the first winner with the Big Red in his pedigree. Then came Smarty Jones, Super Saver, Orb, California Chrome, American Pharoah, Nyquist, Always Dreaming with Secretariat within their first five generations.
If you take Justify with Secretariat in his sixth generation and Maximum Security you can conclude that the son of Bold Ruler has been one of the three genetic Derby giants for the last seven years in a row.
As explained by Steve, 13 out of the 17 Derby horses got Secretariat within their first six generations. Tiz the Law got A.P. Indy in his fifth generation (sire line) hence Secretariat is in his sixth generation.
There are only 4 horses not showing Secretariat in their 5-gen pedigree: Winning Impression, Attachment Rate, Thousand Words, and Major Fed.
Great analysis as always. I agree with all. I think unless Tiz has a terrible trip and gets pinned
in or he is starting to get tired (he ran a month ago), I think he wins. HAP is going to be primed to
his very best and King Guillermo, likewise. I also think NY Traffic is a very good horse and he has
a chance to hit the board. Some people are saying Authentic is the “wise guy” horse and that Baffert
should not be underestimated. I do not think he is going to like the distance and a lot will have to
happen for him to win. So, I think Tiz wins it if all things are equal. My list 1st-4th is:
Tiz the Law
Honor A.P.
King Guillermo
NY Traffic
Thanks Paula. Authentic being third choice cant be a wise guy horse or buzz horse. THat is for longer priced horses who get bet way down.
O.k. got it.
With all due respect to Secretariat, the second “Big Red”, whose genes are in 13 of the 18 entrants, the original “Big Red”, Man o’ War, is in the pedigrees of ALL 18. In fact, Derby favorite Tiz the Law has a staggering 33 appearances of Man o’ War in his pedigree, while Honor A.P. has 15, Authentic 22, Enforceable 28, and Storm the Court 15. No other thoroughbred has such a continuing powerful and profound influence on modern pedigrees.
Great to know that! Amazing the impact these
two horses have had on horses down through
the decades.
MoW is my favorite horse ever (thank you, Walter Farley)…I don’t think there’s been a horse who could ever touch him.
Betsy, welcome to the Dave and Paula Man O’War fan club!
LOL or – Paula and Dave, welcome to Betsy’s Man o’War fan club! I’m glad to see there are others who love Red as much as I do!
Thanks for the info, I love learning stuff like that.
Hard to compare the two, considering Man o’ War was born 53 years before Secretariat, who produced two daughters who have dominated the Thoroughbred bloodlines. John Nerud always wanted to see Man ‘o War in a pedigree and rightly so, but remember, back then there were about 1,500 foals a year, so Man o’ War’s bloodlines were the most sought after and became a foundation for modern day breeding. Bottom line is, both Big Reds have left an indelible mark on the breeding industry, coming along in totally different times.
I’m not sure if you know this, Steve, but I just saw on DRF that one of Necker Island’s owners is Will Harbut Racing LLC, run by Will Harbut’s great-grandson, Greg. How cool is that?
Yes, I know. That is awesome.
That is great information Betsy! Glad to see that Will Harbut still has a presence, so to speak.
Paula, imagine all the stories he must have heard? Racing history !
hOW ABOUT red skelton?…..he has as much relevance as they do……
Is that in reference to my comment on Teddy and Phalaris? As far as bloodstock goes, they have much more relevance than Man O’ War. Since mid-way through the 20th century there is just a handful of stallions that don’t trace tail male to Phalaris. Teddy, great sire and broodmare sire that he was, is found many times over in nearly every horse’s pedigree here in the states. Both of those stallions can be found upwards of 100 times in Tiz the Law’s pedigree, and they are each just four years older than Man O’ War. So, yes, they are pretty far back in his pedigree, but so is Man O’ War.
I see you were replying to the original poster. My mistake.
I agree. I feel that the most influential sire of the 20th c has to be Phalaris! Without him, there’d be no Northern Dancer. Also, most North American thoroughbreds trace to Eclipse. (I’ve also named cats Phalaris, & Pharos-easier to say than Pharamond!) Unfortunately, the Matchem line is almost extinct, which is sad for Man o’War. But, I believe that the original Big Red was the #1 racehorse of the 20th c!!!
Teddy and Phalaris respectfully disagree!
If you watch the replay of Authentic when he lost. His head was thrown out to his right throwing him off stride and messing up his head. He has come a long way since that moment and we ill see a pretty good horse bring his best to the Derby.
No doubting his talent, Joe, but his pedigree is still a big question mark and his need the lead style of running. We’ll just have to see how he breaks and if he can get to the lead without taking too much out of himself. He had things his own way in the Haskell and almost gave it away. Dont get me wrong, I like the horse, but not quite sure about the Derby. I’d love for him to race next year. He will be awesome.
Excellent analysis as always, Steve. I too believe Tiz the Law is far and away the best 3YO in the race (if not the world). That said, I think Authentic could be an underlay. Not to win, but to survive to be second (I’m thinking a Tiz/Authentic exacta.)
Sure, the pace scenario doesn’t lend itself to that result. I’m considering Attachment Rate, King Guillermo, and Sole Volante in the exotics but I predict the best horses (Tiz the Law, Honor A.P., and Authentic) will all do well. Could be the superfecta WON’T be astronomical this year. Happy handicapping, every one!
Thanks, Mary Ellen. I have never seen a Derby with so few leading contenders. You have three contenders and 15 longshots you can pick out of a hat. Very weird Derby.
Especially since King G has scratched! He definitely was a wild card for me. I’m down to a very formful superfecta (Tiz, HAP, Authentic and NY Traffic). That won’t pay much! Maybe I’ll shake things up and throw in 1000 Words as a wild card. Since I’m a virtual bettor, it won’t cost me much. Thanks again, Steve, and enjoy the weekend (Oaks AND Derby and Jim Dandy — embarrassment of riches!)
Thanks Steve. I don’t know about the rest of you all but I am really excited. PR poll has majority of folks less interested in this year’s Derby. Not me. I believe we might have a superstar in the making with Tiz the Law. Being a maternal grandson of Tiznow, no matter where you placed him,he was going to be my horse, but this is assuring. Like many others I live in a non-betting state but this would have been fun race to figure out how to make some money.
We really need Tiz the Law to win this, or if not, Honor A.P. if he is destined to be a major star. After those two I dont think the public cares who wins and there no potential stars in the making, unless King Guillermo can pull off the improbable. Even if Tiz wins, the skeptics will say he beat a poor Derby field. The big race could be the Preakness if we get Tiz, Art Collecltor, and Swiss Skydiver (if she wins the Oaks)
And HAP . Actually, win or lose, I wonder if he would run in the Preakness. I guess there would be no reason not to, but I would prefer the JCGC…(not that that is likely to be an option, but what BC preps would there be on the WC?).
Steve, would you care to share some of John’s thoughts on HAP? Thanks !
My smiley emoji after the first HAP disappeared …boo!
He is made for Belmont Park and will love those big turns.
Steve, right? I’ve been saying that for months; it’s a huge part of why I wanted him to run in the Belmont. I don’t know how John thinks , but he is a NYer and he loves tradition. Granted, the Gold Cup is 1 1/4 and so is the BC Classic, so back to back 1 1/4 isn’t ideal, but the Preakness is not much shorter. It IS a Classic, so there is that…..well, I’m getting ahead of myself, lol. First things first!
Indeed, though he has no trouble hugging the rail around the turns at Santa Anita when it’s called for.
I would truly love to see him try 12f or more, but most opportunities require the evil of shipping. When I saw the San Jusn Capistrano this year, it suggested itself as a possibility — even if it doesn’t any longer hold the cachet it did of yore.
I agree! We need either Tiz or HAP to win it. Racing needs a little shot
of excitement right now. The Oaks will be exciting without any doubt.
I agree – they are both extremely charismatic, in addition to being so talented…
Peri, I don’t think shipping will be a real issue now that HAP has done it before. I think he might like the turf, but there’s no reason to try him on it…maybe near the end of his career.
My profile of a Derby winner won’t have to be adjusted if the winner is Tiz or HAP. But then again, it’s not a true Derby. 🙂
Yes, I too am excited. I was horrified when the race was moved and I didn’t think I could ever get excited about a Derby in September. But I am. I’m really looking forward to it.
Hello Steve – I completely agree with your 3 bombs. I will also be using Major Fed, Attatchment Rate and Sole Volante. I have to include TIZ and HAP in the exotic mix. My key trifecta horse with the other 5 will be King G. He is fresh, drew well, is tactical with a strong pedigree, runs well off of a layoff, and like you stated, his 2nd to last workout at CD was very impressive. He will be bet down but should still offer tremendous value likely being 10-1 or higher. Good luck in your bets Steve, I hope we both cash!
You, too, Joe. Those are all the horses I wrote about so we are on the same page. Not a lot of brilliance in this year’s Derby.
Hi Steve!
Well, the Draw yesterday once again showed the World is truly upside down. The 3 favorites side-by-side on the rail?!?!? If Tiz the Law wins, my brother-in-law will get to go to the Preakness in anticipation of a Triple Crown. Tiz the Law, Honor A.P., and Authentic are my favs, in that order. Since no spectators at the Derby, I will watch in NC, which does not allow wagering. Hope ALL stay healthy & happy, and that Tiz does it!!!! Glad you are on Secretariat.com: Welcome HOME!!!! xoxo, Mary in Boone
Wrong rail, Mary :). The outsife rail is usually called, well, the outside fence, because the word rail always signifies the inside.
Thanks for mentioning the “outside fence” versus “outside rail” usage. I wasn’t aware of that. I enjoy learning the fine points of word usage. That’s why I have always used The American Heritage Dictionary, because they have a Usage Panel and usage notes for words that warrant comment on proper usage.
HI Steve. Call me superstitious but I’m thinking we might be in for a third Triple Crown, as per the 70s. Of course, Tiz has to clear the Derby first I know. But even though I love Honor A.P. too and would love to see John grab another Derby win, I just have a feeling about it. Tiz has just looked SO dominant thus far, even though he hasn’t run against all the Derby entrants, that if he gets beaten it seems as though the colt that manages it will be in for the battle of his young life!
I think people will talk much more about him winning the Quintuple Crown than the bastardized Triple Crown, not to say it wasnt a great achievement, but the final leg of the TC is supposed to present a challenge never before faced and never face again. The Preakness doesnt offer that kind of challenge. Only a mile and a half Belmont does.
Agree, Steve. It’s a shame in so many ways that Tiz and the others showed up in COVID times. Sigh.
Last time I saw Mike on the clear speed in a big race from the far outside was when he took Game on Dude out in the Big Cap–there was another speed in the race–Mike got Dude out of there and made a startling move left across the path of the other speed (Bayern?) and it was the right move, Dude won by a big margin.
OK….forget what I just posted—Mike’s not riding Authentic–DUH!
More great stuff from Steve….thanks!
As you know, I have a great deal of faith in HAP. I won’t predict a win because I respect Tiz too much, but what I will say is that he’s enormously talented and we haven’t seen close to his full potential. He’s coming up to the race brilliantly, and he will devour the 1 1/4. He’s set for a huge race.
The other horse I personally love, Max Player, is a real threat to hit the board. He’s never been out of the money, and his last two races have been his best. I think his lack of stiff works coming into the Travers hurt him – that won’t be an issue here as he’s already had an excellent drill over the track.
I respect Authentic’s brilliance, but I’d be shocked if he really wants this distance. Also, he’d better not swerved right or left – aside from it hurting him, he could take Tiz and HAP out of the race.
We’ll see if Asmussen can get more out of him than Linda did. She is more conservative, so maybe a more aggressive trainer will help him.
I thought Linda got a lot out of Max, but it’s possible she might have reached as far as she could go with him. Steve, I don’t know if you ever saw Max’s first race, but if you did, you’d either laugh or be shocked or both that she was able to get him to be as good as he is. I mean, green doesn’t begin to describe him – I wasn’t sure he wanted to be a racehorse at all; lord, he was climbing all over the place; I didn’t know if he’d finish the race. Even in his second start, he was green as grass and climbing. I DO think you could be right in that Steve could be what Max needs now, when he’s a professional (even though he’s still a bit green and doesn’t like kickback). With his pedigree, he should improve as well……..I doubt at this point it’s good enough, but I’m not looking for him to win – with Max, I’d be thrilled with a good race.
Sorry about the duplicate paragraphs. Having trouble with submit button, working on resolving it.
Steve, any thoughts on the impact of Tiz the Law’s drawing the dreaded #17 post position? Do you think the new starting gate might make that curse irrelevant now?
Steve, what impact if any do you think there is from Tiz the Law’s drawing the dreaded #17 post position? Could it be that the new starting gate might make that curse irrelevant?
I really dont see the 17 post hurting him. I think he’ll let authentic go and Franco will follow Mike Smith and sit just off him
Thanks, Steve. Glad you see it that way.