Derby Rankings Week 1: Back on the Trail Again
Welcome to the 2021 Kentucky Derby trail and the start of our Derby Rankings. Unlike the Derby Dozen, the rankings will not be limited to 12 horses, but we will begin with a dozen in order to properly introduce each horse in detail. In future weeks, the comments will be shorter and we will provide more information in the Knocking on the Door section. All readers’ comments are welcome whether you agree or disagree. So please stop by every week, share your opinions, and hopefully we can create a much-needed diversion from these crazy and scary times. Let the fun begin. ~ Steve Haskin
Derby Rankings: Back on the Trail Again
By Steve Haskin
1. Essential Quality (Brad Cox, Tapit – Delightful Quality, by Elusive Quality)
No need for any brilliant insight here, although I’m still not sure how good he is because of his great setups. He gets the No. 1 ranking because he’s an undefeated champion with two Grade 1 victories already, he hasn’t shown any noticeable weaknesses, and he has the right running style. He also showed the ability to adapt to any kind of pace, battling for the lead off slow fractions in the Breeders Futurity and coming from farther back off a fast pace in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, while showing good acceleration on the turn. And most of all, no one else has done enough to merit the top spot, although that may change after a couple of jaw-dropping first time out maiden winners step up in their next start. If you want to pick away at him a little, his pedigree is just OK with way too much inbreeding for my liking and his dam and third dam being pure sprinters. He had a perfect setup in the Breeders’ Juvenile when Keepmeinmind’s rabbit set a fast pace, hurting the chances of favored Jackie’s Warrior and everyone else near the lead. And finally he does paddle very slightly with his left leg. But at this point he is the most accomplished of this group, but I’m still waiting for someone to blow me away.
2. Keepmeinmind (Robertino Diodoro, Laoban – Inclination, by Victory Gallop)
If there is one thing you want to see in a deep closer, it is consistency and the ability to rally off any kind of pace and not have to depend on perfect setups. This colt has run four times, three going 1 1/16 miles and once going a mile, and in each race he came home fast and was right there at the finish off fast half-mile fractions of :45 1/5 and :45 4/5 and slow half-mile fractions of :48 4/5 and :48 1/5. The farthest he’s been beaten was 3 1/4 lengths in the Breeders’ Futurity behind Essential Quality, who was right up on the lead through a slow three-quarters in 1:13 2/5. With blinkers added and help from a rabbit, he came from 18 lengths back in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile to be beaten two lengths by Essential Quality. In the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, he was last, but only six lengths behind a very slow pace, and rallied six-wide to win by three-quarters of a length with a rapid final sixteenth in :06 1/5. He has proven to be a relentless closer regardless of the pace and now has a victory and a second at Churchill Downs. From a visual standpoint, he keeps a straight course down the stretch and holds his legs under him perfectly. He looks to be the ultimate pro and there is nothing to dislike about him.
3. Senor Buscador (Todd Fincher, Mineshaft – Rose’s Desert, by Desert God)
This ranking is from the heart as well as the visuals and will be explained next week. It is based on two eye-popping performances at Remington Park, yes, Remington Park. People frown on horses who come from the clouds, but this horse doesn’t just rally from far back to win, he inhales his opponents and leaves them for dead. In both his starts he was never hustled out of the gate and immediately fell five lengths behind the next-to-last horse. In his debut going 5 1/2 furlongs, he took off around the turn, fanned seven-wide and flew by the leaders with only 50 yards to go and still won off by 2 1/2 lengths in a sprightly 1:03 3/5, earning a solid “7” Thoro-Graph figure. Stretching out to a mile in the Springboard Mile, he was 15 lengths back down the backstretch, but again kicked into high gear on the turn, fanned eight-wide, and blew by the leaders at the eighth pole like they were moving in slow motion. In a flash, he was three in front and just kept pouring it on to win by almost six lengths, coming home his last eighth in :12 flat and final three-eighths in a rapid :36 flat, this time earning a sensational “2 3/4″ Thoro-Graph figure, the same as Life is Good in the Sham Stakes. You rarely see such explosions and big winning margins from a deep closer. We should get a better line on him when runner-up Cowan runs in the Smarty Jones Stakes on Friday, but not sure he can beat Caddo River.
4. Life is Good (Bob Baffert, Into Mischief – Beachwalk, by Distorted Humor)
OK, put on the brakes if you were disappointed in seeing his four-length lead in the Sham Stakes evaporate into a frantic three-quarters of a length victory. You have to take into consideration that he had earned a “2 3/4″ Thoro-Graph number in his maiden romp, going four-wide on the first turn, and went into the Sham having worked a scorching six furlongs in 1:10 3/5 six days before the race. He was going two turns for the first time and Mike Smith had him geared down completely in the stretch. When he realized another (Baffert) horse was closing in quickly, he went from a pull to a drive in a matter of seconds, something the colt had never experienced before and he began to drift out. This will, in my opinion, help him, as you don’t want a young horse to think everything is easy and not know how to react when pressured for the first time. With all this, he still paired up his “2 3/4” Thoro-Graph number, which is just what you want to see. You don’t want him to regress too much off that first race, but more important, you don’t want a young inexperienced horse to run faster this early in the year. Also note that the second- and fourth-place finishers in his 9 1/2-length maiden victory both came back to win their next start impressively.
5. Greatest Honour (Shug McGaughey, Tapit – Tiffany’s Honour, by Street Cry)
He still needs to move up in class, but so far he looks like your quintessential Derby-type horse who is improving with every start, as indicated by his Thoro-Graph pattern, debuting with a “10” and three starts later running a “4 1/2.” In his first two starts sprinting he finished right behind a very fast and talented colt in Caddo River. Stretching out to 1 1/8 miles over a dead track at Aqueduct he hooked up in a gut-wrenching stretch duel with the highly regarded Pletcher horse Known Agenda after a long sustained run through dawdling fractions and was beaten a head with a gap of 21 lengths back to the third horse, another promising Pletcher horse. Then at Gulfstream going 1 1/16 miles, he dropped back to last early and was bothered by a horse who unseated his rider, but shrugged it off and moved up methodically going four-wide and ran down a $725,000 Pletcher horse under a hand ride to win by 1 1/2 lengths, coming home in a sharp :24 1/5 and :06 1/5. If you’re looking for a mouth-watering pedigree, his dam is a half-sister to Belmont winners Rags to Riches and Jazil, as well as Breeders’ Cup Marathon winner Man of Iron and Peter Pan winner Casino Drive. His second dam Better Than Honour is a half-sister to the dam of Irish Oaks and Yorkshire Oaks winner Peeping Fawn, and his third dam Blush With Pride won the Kentucky Oaks and Ashland Stakes and is a half-sister to Sex Appeal, the dam of Irish Derby and 2,000 Guineas winner El Gran Senor.
6. Medina Spirit (Bob Baffert, Protonico – Mongolian Changa, by Brilliant Speed)
Baffert ran this colt in the Sham Stakes against Life is Good with the thought of sending him to Saudi Arabia for their rich Derby, but he ran such a strong race he decided to keep him home and leave him on the Kentucky Derby trail. He showed good speed in his debut going 5 1/2 furlongs, winning off by three lengths. Stretching out to a two-turn mile in the Sham he put a scare into Life is Good, closing strongly to be beaten three-quarters of a length. What made this such a powerful race by the top two, it was 12 3/4 lengths back to the highly regarded Parnelli, who I had ranked in my Top 10 before this race. Medina Spirit’s Thoro-Graph number jumped from a “9 1/2″ to a “3 1/4.” I love the way this horse runs with his front legs perfectly aligned, while keeping a straight course. His breeding is not typical for a Baffert-trained horse but before you ask, “who are those horses?” Protonico is a son of Giant’s Causeway and was a graded stakes winner at 1 1/8 miles and placed in the 1 1/2-mile Jockey Club Gold Cup. Brilliant Speed is by Dynaformer and his second dam is a full-sister to Belmont winner Touch Gold. In fact, of Medina Spirit’s four great-grandsires, one won the Belmont, one won the Kentucky Derby, one sired a Kentucky Derby winner, and one sired a Preakness and Belmont winner. Distance will not be a problem.
7. Smiley Sobotka (Dale Romans, Brody’s Cause – Dance Thewayyouare, by Mineshaft)
Not sure yet how he stacks up against stablemate Sittin’ On Go, who outworked him on Jan. 16, but he did beat him fairly soundly in his game second-place finish in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes coming off a maiden score and making his two-turn debut. I’m also not sure if he was in there to assure a good pace, but he did go to the lead for the first time and just kept going despite constant pressure from two horses on his outside. He actually was headed by both horses at the top of the stretch and battled back to take the lead again. I loved how gutsy he was turning back all challenges and I don’t believe he ever saw the victorious Keepmeinmind on his far outside. His maiden victory at Keeneland was very impressive, and I love his professionalism and the way he moves with his head low and neck extended. Despite a series of left-handed whips in his maiden win he never moved off his path the length of the stretch. And he ran just as straight down the lane in the Kentucky Jockey Club. I don’t believe he wants to be on the lead and I would imagine we’ll see him take back off the pace again. He has plenty of stamina top and bottom, and his fourth dam, Sabin, was a top-class grass filly who won 12 graded stakes and placed in the Alabama.
8. Known Agenda (Todd Pletcher, Curlin – Byrama, by Byron)
This colt may have the best stamina breeding of any 3-year-old and he has already been a mile and an eighth twice. In his debut, he ran a strong second to the highly promising Highly Motivated going 6 1/2 furlongs and then stretched out to nine furlongs and outgamed Greatest Honour in a furious stretch dual, in which they finished 21 lengths ahead of the third horse. In the Remsen, although he was third, beaten nine lengths, he gets a pass, as it looked as if he detested the slop, having to be whipped three times down the backstretch. He still was trying in the stretch and never quit. He has one of the great European stamina lines. His maternal great-grandsire Darshaan won the French Derby and was a champion sire and broodmare sire in three countries: Darshaan’s sire Shirley Heights won the English Derby and Irish Derby and was a top-class stallion, siring a French Derby winner and English Derby winner in back-to-back years; and Shirley Heights’ sire Mill Reef was one of the greatest racehorses and sires of all time, winning the English Derby, Arc de Triomphe, King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes, and numerous other Group 1 races, and siring eight classic winners and a Breeders’ Cup Turf winner.
9. Prime Factor (Todd Pletcher, Quality Road – Haylie Brae, by Bernardini)
I normally would never rank a maiden winner with one career start, but I’m getting bolder in my old age and this colt not only was super impressive in his debut, he did everything like a seasoned pro. He broke perfectly straight and rated kindly off the leader while just flicking his ears back and forth through testing fractions of :22 1/5 and :45 1/5 like it was nothing. At no point was he put to pressure, just coasting to the lead nearing the head of the stretch, still flicking his ears around. After switching leads on cue, Irad Ortiz gave him a couple of short crosses and he was gone, running straight as a proverbial arrow down the stretch, his legs perfectly aligned. And he was eased the last sixteenth, winning by nearly nine lengths with his ears pricked. This was as perfect a debut as you could ask for. His sire was brilliant and could carry his speed and his dam is by Bernardini, out of a full-sister to Canadian Triple Crown winner and Hall of Famer Dance Smartly and a half-sister to Smart Strike, sire of classic winners Curlin and Lookin At Lucky. He is coming off a pair of sharp five-furlong works and his next start against winners will tell us if he’s just a flashy maiden winner or a leading Derby contender.
10. Capo Kane (Harold Wyner, Street Sense – Twirl Me, by Hard Spun)
For every Bob Baffert and Todd Pletcher there has to be a Todd Fincher and a Harold Wyner to assure some semblance of balance and give hope to the “little guy.” Wyner, who showed he knows how to develop a good young horse with his early work last year with Ny Traffic, now has a chance to take one all the way. Capo Kane has been in the auction ring four times, selling for $35,000 and then $75,000 as a yearling. He RNA’d for $87,000 as a 2-year-old before taking a major nosedive at the Timonium sale, selling for a paltry $26,000. Training at Parx, he was sent off at odds of nearly 7-1 in the one-mile Jerome Stakes at Aqueduct, despite coming off an impressive romp in a mile and 70-yard maiden race. In the Jerome he went right to the lead from the rail and just kept pouring it on, winning by 6 1/2 lengths. What I love about this horse is his ability to repulse challenges while still on cruise control and then bound away from his rivals despite being green with a tendency to wander in the stretch. He is a very efficient mover with an effortless stride and is light on his feet. By a Kentucky Derby winner, his female family is loaded with European stamina with two English Derby winners and an Arc de Triomphe winner, and his third dam, French-bred Tuzla, earned $1.3 million, most of it in the United States.
11. Roman Centurian (Simon Callaghan, Empire Maker – Spare Change, by Bernardini)
Because a precedent has been set regarding first-out maiden winners and to keep things lively on here rather than list only the obvious horses, I am including another maiden winner who really caught the eye. After chasing Life is Good in his debut he stretched out to 1 1/16 miles facing two more promising Baffert colts. He settled near the back of the pack, but always in sight of the leaders. When asked for his run on the turn he demonstrated an excellent turn of foot and quickly reached contention nearing the top of the stretch while going five-wide. He charged to the lead leaving the eighth pole and quickly drew off with a final sixteenth in :06 1/5 to win by almost four lengths, running perfectly straight down the stretch, and was a dozen lengths clear on the gallop-out. His Thoro-Graph number jumped from a “13” to a “6.” If you’re looking for a pedigree loaded with class, The Phippses bred his first four dams, his second and third dams were Grade 1 winners, his fourth dam was a Grade 2 winner and the dam of three Grade 1 winners, and his fifth dam, Lady Pitt, won the CCA Oaks, Mother Goose, and Delaware Handicap.
12. Caddo River (Brad Cox, Hard Spun – Pangburn, by Congrats)
I don’t know how far this colt can carry his speed, but he is extremely fast and we know he can carry it a flat mile. There is no reason why he shouldn’t win Friday’s Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn, so we’ll keep him ranked for now and see how he fares. He has shown he can rattle off :44 and change and :45 and change half-miles and keep going, but can he rate when he goes two turns? His breeding says he should, so Friday’s race could be a good spot to teach him to harness some of that speed if he is to be considered a Derby horse. What I liked most about his nine-length maiden romp last time out was the way he hugged the rail every step of the way, cut the corner sharply, and was never touched with the whip. That to me showed how athletic he is. And his jump from a pair of “9 1/2″ Thoro-Graph numbers to a “4 1/4″ was a good step forward. If he shows all the right signs in the Smarty Jones he likely will move up several places.
KNOCKING ON THE DOOR
It’s tough separating the first three finishers of the Lecomte, as MIDNIGHT BOURBON, PROXY, and MANDALOUN ran 1-2-3 the whole way around, so we’re going give that race a week to sink in and go more in depth next week. All three at this point look to be legitimate Derby contenders, but still are knocking on the door. Two other visually impressive maiden winners we’re watching closely are AMOUNT, who looks to have all the tools and certainly the pedigree, but needs to improve off his “9 1/2″ Thoro-Graph number, and PRATE, another Into Mischief who looked great visually but has some distance questions. The horse he beat handily, BLAMEWORTHY, came back and broke his maiden in game fashion Saturday. First-out winner WOLFIE’S DYNAGHOST, a beautifully bred half-brother to Sadler’s Joy, hasn’t worked since Nov. 14. Also WIPE THE SLATE was an impressive winner coming off his second to Life is Good, but with his questionable female family I need to see him go two turns. The same goes for first-out winner DEFEATER. Finally, the improving WEYBURN is working lights out at Belmont and bears watching when he stretches out to two turns.
Some of the more accomplished horses right on the edge of the Rankings who will be discussed in detail in the next couple of weeks are the immensely talented JACKIE’S WARRIOR, who has to show he wasn’t exposed in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile as a need-the-lead type of horse; BC Juvenile runner-up HOT ROD CHARLIE, who is a half-brother to a Sprint champion and the great-grandson of a Sprint champion; SPIELBERG, who no doubt is a talented horse and worked a strong six furlongs Saturday, but not sure where he ranks in the Baffert barn; MUTASAABEQ, who beat a questionable field in workmanlike fashion in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes and may be a better grass horse; the John Shirreffs-trained RED FLAG and PARNELLI, both of whom I was very high on before their most recent disappointing performances; SITTIN ON GO, who has regressed speed-wise since his impressive Iroquois Stakes score, but deserves one more shot, especially with the way he’s been working; BROOKLYN STRONG, who hasn’t worked since his Remsen Stakes victory; ROMBAUER, who is classy and has a good closing kick, but needs to show a quicker turn of foot in the stretch; Nyquist Stakes winner HIGHLY MOTIVATED, who had his first work back on Saturday and if he can handle two turns, watch out; and we’re still waiting for major stakes horses REINVESTMENT RISK, DR. SCHIVEL, and GET HER NUMBER to return to the work tab, as well as the highly promising maiden winner SPEAKER’S CORNER.
Shug McGaughey has stopped on Remsen and Nashua runner-up TEN FOR TEN, and the horse who beat him in the Nashua, PICKIN TIME, ran poorly in his two subsequent starts. Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf winner FIRE AT WILL is bred for turf but has begun breezing on dirt at Gulfstream and is expected to try the Derby trail.
So far, the claim of the year goes to RIGHTANDJUST, who was claimed for $50,000 in a race he won wire to wire by 5 1/2 lengths and then came back Saturday to wire his field again in a competitive 1 1/16-mile allowance race at Fair Grounds at 22-1. And how about this: his sire Awesome Again and broodmare sire Tiznow have three Breeders’ Cup Classic wins between them. One horse who has me stumped is Saturday’s Pasco Stakes winner NOVA RAGS. There is a lot about him I love, but I still haven’t decided if he’s better sprinting. More on him next week.
Hey, welcome back to the Web! Just heard about you setting up here & continuing the Derby Rankings!
“…I’m still not sure how good he is because of his great setups.” Andy Serling said something similar last weekend on tv. I feel for EQ – has everyone forgotten his MSW win by 4 lengths after all the trouble he had in the stretch?! It got my attention! Not saying he’s a lock for the Derby – it’s only Jan.; nobody, imo, is yet.
Glad to see you back! Hope you’re enjoying retirement!
Wishing all runners good luck & safe trips!!
Where do you seek Senor Buscador going forward? Do you envision him getting bought on the trail and shifted to a new barn a la War Emblem?
The good Senor Buscador was indeed impressive. Anxious to see if he keeps moving forward or is another Sol Volente.
I bet the wrong horse (Full Court Press) yesterday as that Prevalence monster mowed them down. Prevalence, Essential Quality and the good Senior for me.
I just made small KDFW bets on Steve’s #2 Keepmeinmind (25-1) and Mandaloun (42-1). You all would do well to scratch those two off your lists because I don’t recall ever cashing a January KDFW ticket. But both have already shown toughness and a flexible running style.
Canceled bet on Keepmeinmind, as he dropped to 19-1. Replaced with Steve’s #5, Greatest Honour, currently at 43-1. Anybody else have FW action?
Well, Keepmeinmind is no longer No. 2 and Greatest Honour has a new ranking as well
Very interesting! Looking forward to the new rankings.
How do you cancel? I thought they didn’t let you cancel on the futures wagers….
Matthew, as long as the race or in this case the FW hasn’t closed, you can delete a bet. I use TwinSpires, but I would guess the option is available no matter which online betting site that you use.
Not for me they didn’t–not on TVG, and they tell you that…also not at the track–I bet at the track when it’s open, and as soon as the ticket pops out–you cannot cancel it–they just pop it back to you…
I put a fiver on Wipe the Slate (90-1 when I bet him)
Ended up 80-1…gosh, 9/5 on all others is a great price—and the exacta all others/Wipe the Slate is big, too….
Actually ended up at 87-1, easily the longest shot on the board. I don’t think I’d survive watching my 87-1 shot crossing the finish line first. Good luck!
Nyquist—which is good…but Zensational underneath–a sprinter, and a knowledgeable person told me he has a sprinter’s stride—but it’s only five bucks!
The upcoming Holy Bull Stakes marks the start of Gulftream’s road to the Derby and will likely pit horses that Steve has ranked high (Known Agenda, Prime Factor, Smiley Sobotka, Greatest Honour). Also nominated are some “KNOCKING ON THE DOOR” horses (Mutasaabeq, Sittin on Go, Amount)… Pletcher has also nominated Donegal Bay but he may instead send someone to Tampa’s Sam F. Davis as usual.
Dale Romans may wait on Smiley Sobotka and rely on a big rebound from Sittin on Go.
I don’t know why I had this sneaky feeling about the Holy Bull not being one credible avenue to the Derby. After reviewing its history I found that in 22 of the last 24 years at least one horse who ran in the Holy Bull reached the Derby starting gate.
Among notable names who competed in that early Stakes are Harlan’s Holiday, FUNNY CIDE, Closing Argument, BARBARO (his first dirt race), Scat Daddy, Nobiz Like Showbiz, Dialed In, Upstart, Frosted, Mucho Macho Man, Mohaymen, Gunnevera, Classic Empire, Audible and no other than Tiz the Law last year.
This time Prime Factor looks ready to deliver a nice spectacle given the way he is training. As Steve noted, his resounding debut makes him a leading prospect in Pletcher’s band. Prime Factor worked 5F in 59.85 and the Mucho Macho Man winner Mutasaabeq worked 4F in 47.37 yesterday at Palm Beach Downs. Both horses are primed to get Derby qualifying points rather early.
Greatest Honour worked 50.80 at Payson Park today. The son of Tapit is progressing steadily but surely in form and will be a strong contender in the Holy Bull. One has to be impressed by his win at Gulfstream Park after being awfully bothered by falling horse. Despite those hiccups Greatest Honor registered a tremendous speed figure.
It is curious that Olympiad and Speaker’s Corner both graduated by defeating Caddo River and Greatest Honour who came 2nd and 3rd in those two Maiden races in New York.
Both Caddo River and Greatest Honour have evolved to be very capable runners which makes us wonder what could be happening with Olympiad and Speaker’s Corner if they return in good order… but there is no linearity in horse racing and every horse is subjected to its own circumstances.
The next SHDR will be very interesting…
Exciting times ahead indeed!
Nevertheless, the HB pales in comparison to the FOY and the Fla Derby as a significant Derby prep. But Florida-raced horses have had an advantage over the past 20 years of the Ky Derby. Greatest Honour will be tough to beat in the HB.
Nelson, the Holy Bull has always been one of my must-watch races. As the long skein of winners you list atests, this is a break-out race for promising young 3YOs (and future sires). Looking forward to seeing some real racing in February!
I am of the opinion the #5 ranking assigned to Greatest Honour is extremely generous.
A grinder usually has long strides with a slow turn over rate. Such horses have to be put to a full drive a long way from the finish line. Such a strategy results in early demands on the energy systems of a horse. Early demands results in early depletion of said energy systems. This usually results with a compromised stretch run that is usually lacking in the acceleration sufficient to overhaul classy opponents.
Greatest Honour has the running profile of a grinder. Even if he doesn’t accurately fix into this category he isn’t outside same. The fractions recorded in his maiden breaker were modest at best. He was under a full drive a long way from home. At the end of the race he appeared an extremely tired running that had very little gallop out.
It is unlikely Greatest Honour will do well against classy high cruisers that can accelerate out of cruising speed and sustain gallops to the line. Only a pace meltdown or stamina deficient opponents will provide a planform for a victory by Greatest Honour against the upper echelon of the division..
I could be doing a disservice to this colt and if I am proven wrong, I will be happy to man up and declare I was wrong.
Tourist’s Cristiano’s Dream and Wentru made very good, though different, first impressions last weekend.
(To counterbalance Traveller’s disappointing run yesterday.)
(Repeated because I intended this to start a new topic.)
The Lewis next week—-Roman Centurian, Speilberg, Wipe the Slate and another good one whose name escapes me—I only want to see Roman Centurian finishing, is all…I think he’s going to be a ten furlong type…..Speilberg was flattered by yesterday’s The Great One’s 14 length win….Wipe the Slate has trained well….game on! the 2018 crop might be something special….we can use that.
The fourth good one running in the Lewis is Hot Rod Charlie…
Of the horses in the last 10 years that contested the Kentucky Derby after making their debuts as 3YOs. Three recorded top 3 finishes:
CURLIN
02/03/2007 – MSW- 7F
03/17/2007 – Rebel Stakes 8 1/2F
04/14/2007 – AK Derby 9F
05/05/2007 – Kentucky Derby 10F (Finished 3rd; 2 week later won the Preakness)
BODEMEISTER
01/01/2012 – MSWt – 5 1/2F
02/11/2012 – MSW 8F
03/10/2012 – San Felipe 81/2F
04/14/2012 – AK Derby 9F
05/05/2007 – Kentucky Derby 10F (Finished 2nd; 2 week later again 2nd in the Preakness)
JUSTIFY
02/18/2018 – Debut – 7f MSW
03/13/2018 – Allowance 8 1/2F
04/07/2018 – SA Derby 9F
05/05/2018 – Kentucky Derby 10F (Won TC)
If the connections of the impressive MSW winner Prevalence are targeting the KD. The colt is likely to make either 2 or 3 additional starts ahead of the big race. Both Curlin and Justify made 3 starts before their KD effort. Bodemeister made 4 starts ahead of his.
The big question regarding Prevalence has to be. Should the connections of the colt target the KD given that Essential Quality and the improving Proxy belong to the same ownership? I contend Godolphin should if colt is providing indications he is they type of a horse.
Not all horses that make their debut as a 3YO should de directed to the KD. Only the exceptional ones should. Prevalence’s debut win was just as impressive as those recorded by Curlin and Justify. Bodemiester was ultra impressive when breaking his maiden in his 2nd start..
The ease with which the 3 horses above won their races heading into the Derby, suggested they were capable of more. None of the above three were truly fully extended ahead of the KD. Assuming Prevalence in like Ciurlin and not like Hidden Scroll. The ease with which he covered 7F in 1:23 whilst eased a long way from the finish line. Suggests he has a lot more to offer. Further, has a pedigree that features a serious combination of speed and stamina..
When Maxfield won the Keeneland Breeders Futurity with a breathtaking last to first explosion. His trainer Brendon Walsh, in a post race interview, stated that “some horse breath a different type of air” If Prevalence is not flattering to deceive. He might be just one of these horses.
Hey, Coldfacts. Between 1937 and 2019, only one of 63 starters won the Derby after debuting at 3 years of age. Only nine were in the money. That’s enough for me to be highly skeptical of this type unless the colt’s numbers were astounding. Regarding your facts, Coldfacts, Curlin was a 3yo twelve years ago, he doesn’t qualify under your “last 10 years” calculation. You also left out Battle of Midway, who finished second in the 2017 Derby. So, yes, three horses finished in the money in the last 10 years. 🙂 Keep ’em coming!
Well…you really cannot go by that because it’s a different era…..Horses ran a lot at two back then, and horses carried 130 back then….and you could watch two movies and have a cheeseburger and a Nesbitts soda for a quarter back then (my dad used to tell me) and if you were lucky they threw in a Three Stooges short in between movies—the ones with Curly!
(nyuk nyuk!)
Soitenly, Matthew! Nyuck, nyuck, nyuck! But regardless of the era, we’re still talking about very young and very inexperienced horses running 10 furlongs in May against top company. Can you guess what decade saw the most Derby runners that were unraced at 2? Answer: the 1970s, which had 16 Derby runners that debuted as 3yos.
That’s a surprising fact. Where do you find them?
That decade also saw Affirmed run 9 times as a two year old, winning 7 and placing twice.
Slew “only” went 3 for 3 as a two year old.
Yup, Derby hopefuls raced much more frequently in the old days. I find the Derby facts in the dumpster behind my neighborhood’s Waffle House. I don’t know why someone is always throwing out Derby Media Guides. Only problem is that they’re sticky with syrup and attract ants.
I believe you are a CIA agent !
No Waffle House. I’ll have to try the iHop.
I would guess it was the 1971 or 1974 Derby with that many “rookies”… I am looking at all the dumpsters behind the Casinos here to let you know my final answer…
I am finding a lot of disposed face masks only so far…
Great! Just spray them with hydroxychloroquine and they’ll be as good as new.
Actually they were spread out over the decade. Only 1973 had more than 2 of them (there were 3 that year). Bit of advice: Use a step ladder for the dumpsters.
I find that throwing my cap into the dumpster is sufficient to get me over the side and into the dumpster. Once I am in, throwing the cap over the side usually works to get me out.
A few times, I didn’t keep the number of dives equal to the number of exits. P.U.
I think maybe Forego was unraced at two–but not certain…I do remember Forego worked :57 flat the week before the (1973) Derby…
Matthew:
Yes, Forego’s debut was January 17, and he had 6 more races before the Derby. Can’t remember who won the Derby that year. 🙂 🙂 🙂
Perimeister:
That must be a valuable cap.
Correction for both of us: Curlin was almost 14 years ago!
Well, Godolphin has had numerous runners in the Epsom Derby on numerous occasions. If Prevalence has enough points, he’ll make the field. You may want to check on how many Medaglia d’Oro colts have actually made it to the Derby and how ‘he’ faired in the race. I wouldn’t be getting too excited on Prevalence’s chances.
Well Steve, The Great One might just be aptly named and, moreover, the best 3 year old colt in California might not be trained by Bob Baffert after all. How quickly things can change in the blink of an eye on the Derby Trail?
How do you reconcile your comment with the fact that the BB trained Spielberg has defeated The Great One twice. Isn’t it a case of when the cats away the mice will play.
On a more serious note. Are you of the opinion that The great One has supersede Life Is Goo? Spielberg struggled to get by TGO in Los Al Futurity. It is therefore likely he has surpassed Spielberg. But Life Is Good is a totally different animal.
Any horse that covers ground so effortlessly is an energy saving machine. What it lacks in stamina is compensated for by energy efficiency.
Horses get better….92 Beyer….still, it was a very fast pace, and he drew away from 3 horses….I like Prevalence better…good race coming up, The Lewis….I don’t need to see Roman Centurian win, just want to see him finish….I like many three year olds, this year inspires, there’s nothing in sports that can get my blood going quite like Spring in Thoroughbred racing….and no better blog than Steve Haskin’s….and no more interesting poster than Coldfacts!
It was more a humorous comment than being a ‘true believer.’ Often, you see quite a few remarkable performances in January that are never replicated come April/May. Stakes races are when it counts, wait and see.
How do you reconcile your comment with the fact that the BB trained Spielberg has defeated The Great One twice. Is it not a case of when the cats away the mice will play.
On a more serious note. Are you of the opinion that The great One has superseded Life Is Goo? Spielberg struggled to get by TGO in Los Al Futurity. It is therefore likely that he has surpassed Spielberg. But Life Is Good is a totally different animal.
Any horse that covers ground so effortlessly as LIG, is an energy saving machine. What he might lacks in stamina is compensated for by energy efficiency.
Steve – a wow performance from Prevalence today at GP in a MSW. Prevalence is a Godolphin colt by Medaglio’Doro. What do you think of Prevalence moving forward as a KY Derby horse?
It was an amazing performance, but I cant see how he can have more than 3 career starts before the Derby unless they cram. They have Essential Quality and Proxy so I wouldnt push him
Prevalence (Medaglia D’Oro – Enrichment by Ghostzapper) an eye catching (debut) winner for Godolphin at Gulfstream (6th)… he won with mind-blowing ease logging 22.66 46.09 70″ 45 and finished in a very telling 83 flat for the 7F.
Toyed with the highly regarded debutante Stage Rider (Pioneerof the Nile – Stage Magic by Ghostzapper) half to Justify and by the sire of American Pharoah … no less!
Prevalence is another exciting prospect to keep an eye on…
Great minds think a like.
LOL … I was about to change eye catching by dazzling … but it is eye catching for both of us who are keeping track of the Royal Blue talents… keep it up!
…and then you watched The Great One win at Santa Anita.
And here comes Nyquist !
Perhaps, this crop of three year olds are above average.
It’s early but I think you may be right….everything about Prevalence impresses me, right down to his beautiful head, coming up the inside like that, and he did it so easily….I wouldn’t be playing him in KD futures, however, but Godolfin has always targeted The Kentucky Derby, they even created a “duplicate” track, trying to get a better Derby horse, so they will point him …..I hope they take care of that guy, I saw his string of 5 furlong works in December, each one faster and that is a sign of a horse that does what his trainer wants….I bet him yesterday but had no idea he was that good. …a debut race you don’t forget, one of the best I have seen. Time was good but it was how he did it…..
Nelson, did you notice at Gulfstream Park on Sunday that the 3 year old Malibu Moon filly, Slumber Party, ran an almost identical time as Prevalence and looked even better doing it. Slumber Party literally walked over line it was so easy.
Tourist’s Cristiano’s Dream and Wentru made very good, though different, first impressions last weekend.
(To counterbalance Traveller’s disappointing run yesterday.)
Let’s hope that you are not haunted by past misgivings…Hidden Scroll. Same time of the year, same racetrack but 14 lengths a winner on debut.
George Santayana – “Those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it” ha ha good luck!!
I suspect Prevalence will be the flavor of the weekend and rightfully so. I hope trainer Walsh has better luck with this colt than Maxfield.. That was an eye catching debut. Ease a furlong out and still recorded 1:23+ for 7F.
Mr. H,
Is he a top 12 candidate?
Not right now
He took as Romans horse over a Shug horse. A serious error was made.
Steve Haskin-
Recently in Las Vegas at a William Hill Sports Book, I made a few KD 2021 Future Book bets. Lemon Pop (Lemon Drop Kid- Unreachable by Giant’s Causeway) at 80-1, and Overtook (Curlin-Got Lucky by A.P. Indy at 150-1. Nice pedigrees but not sure how fast they can run this early in the year at intermediate distances.
Lemon Pop is an overseas colt, who last ran in November 2020 in the Cattleya Stakes at Tokyo Racecourse. Do you have any info on his next race. He is owned by Godolphin and do they have intentions to ride the Kentucky Derby Trail?
Overtook is trained by Todd Pletcher and I believe the colt is stabled in New York. Any info on his next race is appreciated. Thanks for your comments.
Does anyone know why JOHN R. VELAZQUEZ is not riding Code of Honor today in the Pegasus World Cup?
Surprising to see Johny V. taking Mr. Freeze while Code of Honor is piloted by Tyler Gaffalioni?????
Thanks in advance for any information on that “break”…
He took as Romans horse over a Shug horse. A serious error was made.
It might have been a decision of the owner and/or trainer instead… and JV had no other choice but to take whatever was available for the 3 million dollar race… the “intríngulis” of Horse Racing.
Sorry for this late explanation: Johnny V. was booked for Tiz the Law in the Pegasus a few days after the Breeders Cup. With Tiz’ sudden retirement at the end of December, JV had to go with what was available.
Many thanks perimeister… that makes perfect sense. I completely forgot about JV being named to pilot Tiz the Law.
really appreciate it.
Caddo River has just won the Smarty Jones Stakes very easily … he left Cowan about ten lengths behind. The son of Hard Spun was relaxed early and very imposing in the home stretch. Brad Cox should have him ready for better things ahead…
Pangburn, was a better racehorse than what’s on her record.
You mean the daughter of Congrats had excuses for not winning any graded Stakes…?
Yes, often finding one or two better on the day. A touch more luck would have reversed the order.
Given he was the overwhelming favorite; he enjoyed an uncontested lead and the internal fractions were modest, there isn’t a lot we have learned about his capacity to be competitive against the top dogs in the division..
You may not have learned anything but I did. When I look at his pedigree, his stride, the way he runs relaxed and previous speed exhibited I am seeing a Derby contender. Not to mention he has a top trainer that knows what he is doing. I saw the fractions before I saw the replay, and at first I thought it wasn’t that impressive until I saw the race. I haven’t compared times of the day for other races yet but this was a cakewalk by a talented horse who could have done much more and I suspect gone 10f yesterday. I don’t have a Derby list, I’ll just stick to letting Steve do all of the work but I would expect Caddo to move up quite a bit. Cox could have two in the top five. If not next week, then soon. I really can’t wait to see Caddo against stronger competition.
It should read- “I suspect could have gone 10f yesterday.” This could be a fast horse with strong natural stamina.
I consider my comments measured and in no way disparaging of the colt’s win. I am big fan Hard Spun the colt’s sire and would welcome KD win by one of his progenies.
I am also familiar with the long involvement of the colt’s owner in racing. He has certainly paid his dues and is the type of owner that deserves a KD winner.
Despite the above, I have to call it as I see it. When a quality horse in modest company is allowed to dictate its one fractions, it likely to decimate its opponents.. Substitute Caddo River with Essential Quality and/or Life Is Good and the result would have been the same i.e., an impressive wide margin win. The colt won like a 1/5 favorite should.
Caddo River’s win has to placed in context, irrespective of the emotions involved. When Tiz The Law was decimating opponents en-route to the KD. Many highlighted the quality of the opponents he was defeating. When met Authentic that was on his level, he could not get by him during their stretch duel. In fact, TTL’s previous races were so easy. He had difficulty recovering from the demanding stretch duel with Authentic.
Olympiad and Speaker’s Corner prevented Caddo River from breaking his maiden in his first 2 starts. The two colts have not been see since. If it is assumed that both are still on the KD trail. Caddo River’s performance in the Smarty Jones certainly flatters their ability.
He is nice colt that should be celebrated but not prematurely elevated. There is sufficient time for him to validate the confidence of his fans.
Good post but keep in mine it is Derby Dozen time which is automatically time for premature elevations, and excitement, especially when he is from Hard Spun, one of my all time favorites. Visually I thought he looked good. It can be detrimental for betting purposes to latch on to youngsters and be a fan but it also can be fun. I will be rooting for him that is for sure and he will also be on my ticket in his next race. The lad has potential.
I had a feeling that the Derby has never had two consecutive winners by the same sire. So I looked it up and it’s true! Into Mischief, the sire of Authentic, has FIVE entries in KDFW2 (representing 22% of the field). Steve mentioned the first three finishers of the Lecomte at the beginning of his Knocking on the Door section, and I look forward to his thoughts on that race. In the Lecomte, the winner Midnight Bourbon — not a frontrunner in his previous races — found himself in the early lead with a half in 48 4/5. Mandaloun, by Into Mischief, chased MB around the track and finished willingly. As a son of a Derby winner and a grandson of Empire Maker on the dam’s side, further distances should not be an obstacle.
Hoping for a dramatic Derby but not the kind of drama we’ve had the past couple of years with DQs and pandemic delays.
Authentic woud not have won the Derby if it was run on the first Saturday in May.
Agree, Steve. Would Honor A. P. have been able to overcome Tiz the Law? I think not but who knows?
I was both dreading and hoping for a clean Derby that would have answered the question about Tiz versus Honor AP at 10f. Alas, not to be. My best armchair assessment is that Tiz would, at some distance and time, have to bow to what I think is Honor AP’s superior physique – not a knock on Tiz at all. Would 10f have been that distance? In May? In September? Shrug.
It’s a forlorn hope. The Derby preps are the spectacle for me. As for the race, you just hope there are no catastrophic injuries during the running. It’s a shame the race is marred by oversized fields.
I have seen advertisements highlighting the achievements of the recently retired Maximum Security. I wonder how the DQ Kentucky Derby winner will be viewed by breeders.
The big questions regarding MS have to be. What was his true ceiling? To what extent did he exceed his ceiling given the charges of powerful performance enhancing concoctions being administered to him ahead of his races?
The performances of Maximum Security will always have an asterisk. Is it fair? He never returned a positive test. Irrespective, his performance will be forever be tainted and his true ability will never be truly known.
There are few performances which raised Red Flags and left me a skeptical.
Arrogate existed the Allowance level and in his first race beyond 8 1/2F destroyed a field of seasoned G1 winners en-route to obliterating the Travers & Track Record. Four races later the Big Grey was reduced to a plodder unable to muster the energy to finish his races.. Retired thereafter.
Frosted ran a hole through the wind in the Met Mile. The performance left all that witnessed same speechless. Three races later the big grey he faded to dismal 6th in the BCC beaten by a city block. Retired thereafter.
Lawyer Ron with an explosive final furlong destroyed the TR in the Whitney. Two races later he finished a dismal 7th in the BCC beaten by a city block. Retired thereafter.
Maximum Security finished a dismal 5th in the 2020 BCC. Retired thereafter.
Neither Arrogate not Lawyer Ron is with us anymore. But if one was in the market for a KD horse. Would one be attracted to the progenies of horses who delivered exceptional performances and then plodded home in the final races?
Do we really know the true ceilings of the horses that have delivered performances that are unlikely to be replicated anytime soon?
If we do not. Will there not be over-expectation regarding their progenies.
Annex is an interesting colt to follow, whether he is tried on dirt is debatable but that turn of foot is a dangerous weapon. Am looking forward to his next start.
His pedigree is strictly dirt. I watched the race last week and have texted Mott about his plans. Waiting for a reply.
Hello Steve – maybe you could text Bill Mott about the status of Spraker’s Corner. He hasn’t had a published work in quite some time. SC beat a very good Caddo River in his last race. I bet SC at 29-1 in KDFW. Hoping he can get back on the work tab soon and hop onto the KY Derby trail.
Sorry about the typo Steve, meant to say Speaker’s Corner who I bet in KDFW1.
I knew I forgot to ask him about someone. I mentioned last week he hasnt worked. I will text Mott and let you know
No plans to run on dirt.
Thanks, Steve. Good news, ‘when you’re on a good thing, stick to it.’
Yes, Annex ran like he had wheels.
Reading carefully the ranking I was moved to revisit Smiley Sobotka’s performance in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. After also reviewing his two prior races one can easily assume that he was indeed given the role of a rabbit for the already Stakes winner Sittin on Go.
As Steve noted, the way he repelled the intense pressure from stubborn King Fury and Oncoming Train talks about his raw but enormous talent. More merits go to him as he was beaten (to less than a length) by the highly regarded closer and Stakes horse Keepmeinmind.
Only very good horses can do what Smiley Sobotka did despite running against his natural style…
The son of the promising sire Brody’s Cause looks like a big strong horse, very solid physically and also mentally as shown in his first Stakes experience. More racing will make him thrive more and reveal him as a true mile a quarter horse.
Seems ironic that in making Smiley Sobotka a rabbit he proved his mettle.
He is now in my list of horses to follow closely… especially after learning that Sobotka means Saturday in Polish… so a Smiley Saturday is a nice image to me…
An added bonus is that Smile Sobotka is way ahead of his Canadian peers to attempt the Canadian Triple Crown (Queen’s Plate, Prince of Wales Stakes and the Breeders’ Stakes).
Nice colt that is hardly fast enough to trouble those in the upper echelon of the division.
I revisited the KFC Stakes and focus on his stretch run. My assessment of same leads me to conclude he is a grinder. The was no noticeable stride extension when he was asked for his stretch effort. He kept the same stride turn over rate. By comparison, Keepmeinmind and Arabian Prince displayed far more stride extension and more power closing into modest fractions.
I am on the fence regrading the assertion that Smiley Sobotka was some kind of a rabbit for Sittin On Go. A rabbit is suppose to set a pressure pace. Fraction of 24 seconds per 1/4 is hardly a pressure pace. When Sittin On Go won the 8F Iroquois in a quick 1:35. The fraction were 23.04; 45.64; 1:10. He close powerfully from 3rd last to win. If Sittinn on Go is pace dependent, there was no pace for him to run at in the KJCS.
It appears Sittin On Go is another Dennis’ Moment. His impressive Iroquois win was followed by dull 6th & 9th place finished in the BCJ and KJCS. There has to be something amiss with trainer Dale Roman’s program. This cannot be attributed to coincidence .
You are right in that Smiley is not the fastest but you are wrong about the split times not being fast enough. You have to compare the split times of another race at THE SAME DISTANCE the same day.
The talented Hidden Stash won a 1 1/16-mile Allowance over a prospect named Scarred the very same afternoon.
Below are the split times for a nice two-year old race before the KJC Stakes.
Hidden Stash/Scarred (:25.05, :49.54, 1:14.06, 1:38.41, 1:44.67)
Smiley Sobotka (:24.11, :48.24, 1:12.81, 1:38.12, 1:44.52)
As you can see Smiley Sobotka was at least one second faster until the 8F post.
The point is that (in my opinion) Smiley ran against his best running style and defeated good horses like Arabian Prince, King Fury, Swill and Sittin on Go. Even if he was a grinder this type can run all day and win any race going longer as the others just fail to last.
I kind of liken Smiley Sobotka to Country House perhaps in physicality and in promise.
If you watch the first two races of Smiley you will change your interpretation about his strides. I still believe he got upside … again, as of this very point, there is a “wait and see” game and we can only speculate… nothing else nothing more.
Need to know the origin of the name Smiley Sobotka. Can’t just be about the Polish word for Saturday. Sobotka is a small town in Poland. A couple of lower-level players in the NHL and MLB were Sobotkas. I thought that maybe he was named for the character in “The Wire” who never smiled, Frank Sobotka.
Makes sense !
HARDLY SWAYED – ( Bernardini – I Like Whim by Medaglia D’ Oro)
How did the above Smarty Jones entrant ended up making its debut at Indian Downs and subsequent 3 starts at Mahoning Valley Race Track? Why did a colt with the above sire and dam sire, make its first two starts over 5 1/2F and subsequent 2 starts over 6F?
He appears to be grossly misplaced in the Smarty Jones. With an Equibase top speed figure of 73. He is likely to be competing against the Emergency Vehicle. So why ship a colt form a low level track with modest speed figures, to OK Park for a baptisms of fire? Does this action constitute taking a shot?
Based on the colt’s speed figures and the modest competition it has been facing. It shouldn’t have any chance of winning. But whereas it shouldn’t win on past performance it should have an excellent chance, if it runs to its pedigree.
The colt’s dam I Like Whim only made one start. Her dam Weekend Whim was purchased whilst in foal with her for $650K. Weekend Whim was a daughter of A P Indy & Weekend Indy the dam of Any Given Saturday.
Hardly Swayed is bred to be a major router. In fact, he has a KD pedigree. His 4 starts (two 5/12F;two 6F) are inconsistent with his pedigree. He will be stretching out in the Smarty Jones. Is he worth a wager from a pedigree perspective?
If he appeals in the post parade, I will certainly be inclined to place a small wager.
There are hundreds of horses every year with great pedigrees that cant run. This time of the year, everyone thinks he has a Derby horse.
“…competing against the emergency vehicle.” Good one!
Why jockeys bother ‘strangling’ their mounts when the horse is rank always puzzles me. Hardly Swayed should have been let go, at least his supporters would have had a bit of cheer for the money.
Despite Bob Baffert’s KD record in the last 6 years, the highly regarded Life Is Good was not assigned the #1 slot. None of Bob’s talented 3YOs were likewise not assigned the #1 slot in 2020.
The record will reflect that one of Bob Baffert’s charges emerged the winner of KD 2020. Does this mean, that in 2021 his 3YO assessed to be the most talented, should hav been assigned the #1 slot? Does it also mean that said horse should be the favorite in the Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 2? I suspect the answer to the two questions would be a majority YES.
Is there Bob Baffert mania in progress?
Certainly! How does one explain the unraced Bezos being a betting interest the KD Future Pool 2?
One supporter of this space stated BB is so far ahead of fellow trainers, its not even close. Given such profound assessment. The process of identifying the KD winner each should start with the elimination of those on the trail from BB’s barn.
I often wonder how BB is viewed by fellow trainer. Are the horses from BB’s barn viewed by fellow trainers as the ones to beat each year? If in fact, this is the widely held view by fellow trainer. They would be the most disturbing participants in the Bob Baffert Mania.
Thoroughbred Racing is a sport of glorious uncertainties. Despite the success experienced by one or two barns. Lady Luck doesn’t hover over them. Bob went a span of 11 to 12 year without winning a KD. That span occurred after he won 3 in 6 years. Did BB lose his perceived Midas Touch during his dry period? Was he relieved of his KD power? Obviously the answer to these absurd questions would be, No.
When the impressive MSW debut winner Classier was entered in the BCJ for his 2nd start. Many immediately viewed the colt as the likely winner. The Magic man wouldn’t enter a last out MSW winner in such a tough G1 race without a good reason. Arrogate left the Allowance level and destroyed the field in the G1 Travers. Classier had a lesser task.
The off the board finish recorded by Classier indicated BB is no Magic Man. Neither is Tood Pletcher whose last out MSW winner Likeable, likewise finished off the board. Both trainers took a shot and it didn’t bear fruits.
The slate is clean each year. Despite the success of a particular barn, the members of each new Derby class should be assessed based on merit and achievements. Not primarily on the past achievements of trainers
Despite Mr. Haskin’s respect for BB’s achievement’s and his recent successes. He didn’t assign the #1 slot to the highly regarded Life Is Good.
Fair & Measured!
I like Prime Factor and Roman Centurian for now. But all the good names are sitting in the knocking at the door section.. Mandaloun, Midnight Bourbon, Spielberg, Red Flag, Rombauer, Get Her Number, Fire At Will, Rightandjust, Ten For Ten, Nova Rags….I hope they are all in the Derby….LOL!
I wouldnt say they are ALL the good names. More than 12 next week and Mandaloun and Mightnight Bourbon are pn the list, and Spelberg may as well being he is running that Saturday.
Any word from Baffert on Classier and when he will be back on the work tab?
He had to back off him for 45 days, says it will be tight to make the Derby.
Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 2 sports Life is Good as the 6 to 1 favorite over Essential Quality at 8 to 1.
No one can deny that Life is Good, at this point, is the fastest horse of this crop and his uncanny similarities to Authentic is perhaps driving that favoritism.
His Sham win is seen by many as a sign of a limited ability to go long but, as Steve convincingly stated, he has not regressed and is passing a very intense training regime indeed. Baffert is pushing this early Derby favorite to the limit with three consecutive 6-furlong workouts 3 weeks before the Sham.
Also, Mike Smith pointed out that the son of Into Mischief was distracted by the infield big screen (watching himself) losing focus and that he “did not want to panic” coming to the finish line. Baffert seems to be reassured as he recognized that the fast-closing menacing Medina Spirit is “a very good horse” and that Life is Good had passed the two-turn test.
I share Steve’s thought about Life is Good having a big upside after a nice learning experience…
Being Life is Good a maternal grandson of Distorted Humor, like the champion Arrogate, could make him a bit more resilient going longer… also his maternal side shows the outstanding sires Mineshaft, Dixieland Band (broodmare sire of Monarchos and Street Sense) and Miswaki (remember Urban Sea!).
Who have thought that a maternal grandson of Mr. Greeley could win the Derby but also the BCC Classic to become most likely Horse of the Year…! So theoretically Life is Good looks like having more stamina than Authentic.
It is inevitable to start comparing Life is Good to Authentic as both got identical early campaign.
From what I’ve seen so far, this new potential star is as talented as Authentic and even be a bit faster. But we would need to wait and see how this son of the hottest stallion in America develops in route to the coveted Kentucky Derby.
It appears colt facts just do not matter.
Essential Quality was just as fast as Life is Good on debut given the he is by Tapit. He could have easily record 1:15+ for 6 1/2F if a proper exploration of his win over 6F in 1:09+ is undertaken.
In BCJ Essential Quality defeated the following:
Jackie’s Warrior – winner Champagne G1; Hopeful G2
Keepmeinmind – 2nd Keeneland Futurity G1; next out winner of the Kentucky Jockey Club G2
Dombauer – 2nd American Pharoah G1; Very close 6th in Del Mar Juvenile turf
Stiing On Go – winner Iroquois G3
Teinvestment Risk – 2nd Champagne G1; Hopeful G2
King Fury – winner Street Sense ungraded stakes.
Four last out MSW winners.
Life Is Good best opponent emerged as a last out NSW winner. He won the sham with an uncontested lead.
One colt has defeated modest opponents and the other has defeated graded and ungraded stakes winners. The last 4 MSW winners in the BCJ were all defeated by EQ.
Is it Bob Baffert that is driving the support for LIG?
Did Game Winner. Improbable & Roadster finished off the board in the KD?
Were Point Given, Lookin At Lucky pioneerofthe Nile & Bodemiester defeated as the favorite in their respective KD?
Did BB go 12 years between winning the KD after winning 3 in a 6 year span?
The colt facts suggest LIG shouldn’t be ahead of EQ in the wagering. Well, some folks believed Mexico would have paid for a wall constructed by the US.
I also believe that Essential Quality is better equipped to handle the Classic distances. However, we should be clear that those odds are just Mike Battaglia’s appraisals.
Perhaps he believes that if Life is Good “survives” his super intense training regime he will get a solid foundation going forward. He might likewise think that if the Authentic pathway worked rather well (Sham, San Felipe and Santa Anita Derby) it could also work for his equally talented brother. Maybe Battaglia is betting on experience vs. a Derby novice in Cox… who knows!
Many people surmise that Baffert got the “magic recipe” to win the Derby specially with fast horses … Speed has always been a great asset after all.
Facts are one thing and their implications and interpretations another. We have seen KD victors who had debuted in February and other who emerged from a 16K Claiming race.
Again, it is too early to try predicting what is laying ahead for these prospects as suggested by the 9/5 odds for “All Other 3-Year-Olds” in Battaglia’s odd-making work …
It appears the jury is still out as to just how good is Essential Quality. Like all on the KD trail, the only talent measure available is the races they have contested.
I labeled the EQ as exceptionally good after witnessing his Debut win. It’s not often a Tapit progeny, particularly a colts make its debut over 6F. Despite Hansen’s win on debut over 5 1/2F, Tapit progenies are not known for their proficiency at sprint distances.
The 6F debut for EQ though surprising was far more noteworthy for how the race unfolded. The colt travelled in mid-pack and caught up with the leaders effortlessly. A the point he was being set down for his stretch run, he was trapped behind and in-between tiring opponents.
Given the distance of the race; the size of the herd in which EQ was trapped and the internal fractions i.e., 21.48; 45.41; 57.74. It didn’t appear EQ could have been extricated in time to get by the leader. However, as soon a room became available he lengthened his stride ran by the leader as if glued to the ground. The speed explosion at a distance appearing to be not his best was ultra impressive.
If EQ’s debut is properly assess, it would fit into the category of a WOW! moment. It was the type of performance that has in the past blown away those that witnessed same. However, the reviews were nothing near to the aforementioned. If EQ emerged from the barn of either Bob Baffert or Todd Pletcher, he would have been immediately labeled a superstar in the realm of the badly beaten Bob Baffert’s BCJ entrant Classier.
EQ won a fast 6F sprint race (1:09+)) after being trapped late in the stretch. He prompted the pace in his graded stakes debut and ran way from opponents to win by a wide margin. He closed off fast fractions and ran by seemingly unyielding leaders to win the signature race for 2YO males.
In three races EQ has displayed the speed, class and versatility of a truly top class colt.. The colt appears to be the total package.
What would it take for him to blow away racing enthusiasts?
I guess to blow them away in a race other than a 6f maiden race. As I said, he is a worthy No. 1 and is extremely versatile, His last two were perfect setup races, but at least he was versatile enough to take advantage of the pace scenarios.
Agreed…he won those races….the Breeders Cup race had a very fast pace, and they were very spread out down the backside….he got first run, and was good enough to stave off the deeper closers…
Steve, an interesting dozen to start off the Derby Trail. Selecting the colts with the most potential, as opposed to just listing the most accomplished thus far, gives you more scope to determine the rise or decline of each competitor on a weekly basis. Moreover, sometimes, you can get bogged down with the same dozen colts, due to inaction etc, which must be stultifying for you to write. Subsequently, expanding on a dozen makes for more fun and excitement for everyone.
Greatest Honour, Likeable, Essential Quality, Proxy intrigue me the most at this stage but it’s way to early to decide. Glad to read that Ten for Ten is not on the hunt, save that brilliance for a mile. So glad the Derby Rankings are back for another year. Thanks, Steve.
It is tough, David when you have to come up with comments during inactive times and find something different and interesting to say. I was told from one of the connections that Likeable is probably a horse who wants shorter distances. That doesnt mean theyre right but it had to come from Pletcher
From what you’ve seen thus far, the Frosted have a lot of brilliance. There are other races besides the Derby.
Likeable
What do you find intriguing about the above colt?
His winning time in his maiden breaker was 1:37+ for Belmont’s 1turn mile. Of the 14 entrants in the BCJ he finished ahead of 1.
Is your intrigue fueled by the fact that Sea Hero (7th BCJ) and Mine That Bird (last in BCJ), returned to win the KD?
Sea Hero won the G1 Champagne ahead of his BCJ. Mine That Bird won 2 ungraded stakes and the G3 Grey Stakes ahead of the BCJ. Despite the dismal performance of Sea Hero and Mine That Bird in the BCJ. Both were more accomplished than Likeable heading into the BCJ.
I thought sending Likeable to the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile was way too ambitious but in racing, you never know. As for the ‘intrigue,’ that was more concerning Frosted’s attributes as a young sire. Will he through speed that can carry etc? In Australia, there are quite a few precocious, speedy 2 year olds that show promise. Early days.
Yes to Essential Quality and my favorite right now, Senor Buscador (how could you not love a name like that?). Life Is Good’s
win was certainly not super convincing but too soon to say if that was just not his best winning performance. Keepmeinmind going to be very interesting and deserves #2 spot. Please let this be a good year for man and horse in every possible way.
Steve , I need Jackie’s warrior to come through, I am breeding my mare to Macleans Music. A couple years back I wrote about Marconi and my two-year old name Galerio, from my mare Congaree Princess, I saved her life, article in mid-altantic, Jan edition, great reading if you have time. Well take a look at what Galerio did 2020, named after my father, also take a look at his race last Saturday in the Jennings. Question can Jackie’s Warrior go 1 1/4 , here is hoping!!! So glad to see you back !!!
If you send me a link to the story I’d love to read it. I wrote about Marconi several times. He was a true distance horse. I will check out Galerio. I see nothing in Jackie’s Warrior’s pedigree that suggests he cant go a distance, but he has to be able to settle and close. Considering the hot pace of the BC he actually ran quite well.
Steve , you always continue to impress, just well done with your follow up !!!!
Greetings Steve!!
So glad to begin the Derby journey with you again this year. I feel more confused than ever re: the potential top choices — no real standouts to me thus far. Do you think Bob Baffert or other big name trainers have horses that have yet to run who be prominent down the road? Who could be this year’s Justify? Also wondering if you might point readers towards any really good “underdog” stories? I’m sucker for a good emotion-based rooting interest…
Thanks so much for all you do to support the sports and fans!!
Baffert has a unraced colt named Bezos that is supposed to be special. They even listed him in the 23 horse Derby Future Wager field so the word obviously is out there.
Bezos
Sired by a Belmont winner and dam likewise sire by a Belmont winner. Not the pedigree profile of a likely KD winner. Not a great mix of speed and stamina.
Bezos (Empire Maker – A P Mink by A.P. Indy) was ready to an auspicious debut in August after two final workouts at Del Mar (4F in 46 and 5F 60 seconds) but was idle for 4 months after that… I wonder what was wrong with him prompting that hiatus.
Way to go Steve. So ready to get the ball rolling.
Congrats on a new site but a long standing tradition .
Thank you very much. Welcome aboard.
consarn-it! Roman Centurian is part of the 9/5 all others for the futures pool 2..
Hard to believe there were 23 more impressive horses than Roman Canturian…
Not only that, one of the horses on there has never started. I talk about that next week.
Roman Centurian
The dam of the above colt was purchased her current owner at the KEENOV13 sale for $625,000 I/F Distorted Humor. There are not a lot of well bred expensive mares associated with KD winners.
Bernardiniis emerging as an excellent broodmare sire. Spare Change the dam of Roman Centurian is a daughter of multiple G1 winner Finders Fee.
There is just too much blue blood in this colt. KD winner are rarely so well bred.
well, his Jan 3rd winning maiden race really caught my eye, and while I’m usually not concerned with Gallup outs, his big striding finish made him look pretty lonely at the clubhouse bend….Phipps broodmare down his lineage only make me giddy-er, if there’s such a word….and his win was at Santa Anita, where maiden races in January can have some nice horses, I was really wishing to get a futures wager down, because by the next KD futures pool he might not be 25, 30-1, after he runs in a stakes race….
So happy to see the return of the Derby Rankings! A welcome diversion and a harbinger of spring. Thanks, Steve! I especially appreciate that you include lesser-known horses, not just the accomplished stakes horses. The pedigree analysis and assessment of “way of moving” are also quite valuable, particularly for someone like me who is ignorant in these aspects.
I’m throwing my early support behind Life is Good and hoping that the diminishing margin at the end of the Sham is not an indication of distance limitations, although you explained the probable reasons for that quite well. Although I always root for the Baffert trainees, I also am an unabashed “homer” and am excited to see both Capo Kane and Brooklyn Strong on the Derby trail. We’ll have to wait and see how the latter comes back from his illness-induced layoff; hopefully it’s just a temporary setback.
He better get started soon, but at least he has a mile and and eighth win under him, so he has the bottom.
I saw Buscador with my own eyes, and immediately added him to my watch list. I hate to see the attention you gave him here, but this horse appears to be a runner. Interested to see how he performs next out without Lasix. I’m expecting the same
Whilst Lasix is viewed as having enhancing prosperities. The full extent is unknown. Buscador should be just fine without it.
PROXY is an interesting colt. A Tapit progeny with tactical speed must be considered dangerous. It’s not very often the resume of a dam with a Derby Trail horse reflects a win over 10F.
Panty Raid the dam of Proxy won American Oaks Invitational S. (G1,10FT). Add her win in the Spinster S. (G1,9F), Black-Eyed Susan S. (G2,Pim,9F) and she appears to be an ideal broodmare for a Derby Trail candidate.
If over the over the next 3 months Proxy can improve in the speed department. He will certainly be a formidable Derby Trail opponent.
My reservation with Proxy after his previous two starts was his greenness when hit with the whip, ducking all over the place and he did it again in the Lecomte. There are many things to like about him, which wwill be discissed in detail next week but his riders have to stop hitting him left-handed.
Good point, Steve. You wince seeing a young talented colt hit like that.
I dont understand why the riders are not told to refrain from hitting him
I’ll second that. It’s unfortunate that most US jockeys are unable to spend some time in Europe. The better jockeys here always help the trainer by educating young horses. I remember listening to Richard Migliore explaining how Hansen would have been a much better racehorse had he been ridden more conservatively early on, with the rider using that phenomenal speed more judiciously.
It’s much harder to unlearn a ‘negative’ habit.
Much. One of life’s great truths, that.
Some on the trail didn’t make the cut because of no reported works over an extended period. The same doesn’t apply to ROMBAUER. The Equibase web site reflects 4 works for the colt since his 5th place finish in the BCJ. His last reported work was on the 1/16/2021.
ROMBAUER finished 5th by 6 1/4L in the BCJ. That was 4 1/4L behind Keepmeinind who is ranked at #2. The Twirling Candy colt finished ahead of 9 opponents in the signature G1 race for 2YO colts/gelding. Further, he finished a close 2nd to Get Her number in the G1 American Pharoah. It should be noted Hot Rod Charlie who finished 2nd in the BCJ was easily beaten by Get Her Number.
A win on debut over 8F on turf; a 2nd place finish in dirt debut in a G1 over 8F and a 5th place finish in the 8 1/2F BCJ. Has to represent better credential than most in the top 12. he has been competitive on dual surface which reflects versatility.
Mr. Haskin, I am of the opinion you have incorrectly excluded this colt from the top 12. He has the resume and has been working regularly.
He didnt make the Top 12 but he did make the Top 15, which will be reflected with additional placings (Top 15). I explained my concerns and why he didnt make the Top 12. He is a consistent steady closer but I need to see a more explosive move in his stretch runs. He needs to finish those runs.
I thought Rombauer really came home well in his Breeders Cup prep at Santa Anita, where there wasn’t much pace, and he had a wide trip…..but I was disappointed in his Breeders Cup race, he had plenty of speed to close into….perhaps the competition was too much for him but I will be watching for him, watching for his finish, as these are all preps…one of many closers I like….Senor Buscador, Keepmeinmind…Rombauer…and Roman Centurian, whom I like the most.
He did come home well in the American Pharoah, but the quality of that field is suspect at this time and he just didnt have that late burst needed the catch the winner. But he still is a legit contender. He just needs to find another gear.
Rombauer is a Winery located in St. Helena, California. It is near the Napa Valley gateway entering an area world wide famous for all wines.
Their Chardonnay & Zinfandel are legendary.
So in my mind any horse names Rombauer has to be considered. 🙂
Some twenty years ago my brother bought our dad a magnum of Rombauer Zin. Our father said it was the best wine he had ever had. He loved “Big” reds and Rombauer Zin certainly is. It’s a great wine, almost like an apertif. I am rooting for Rombauer.
Are you a wine connois·seur?
I probably shouldn’t have stated he was incorrectly excluded from the top 12. But rather was deserving of a spot.
I know what I like, that’s it
No one seems to recall him but I see Olympiad as an intriguing prospect. I was impressed by his 7F win at Saratoga on September 5 when he covered the last quarter mile in 24 seconds to log a respectable 82” 3/5.
Second and third were the big prospects Caddo River and Greatest Honour. The former earned a spectacular win next out at Churchill logging a very respectable 95” 2/5 dominating the field by 9 lengths. The latter went on to be second at Aqueduct in a 1 1/8 mile race distancing 21 lengths over the third place before winning at 1 1/6 mile at Gulfstream. Both Caddo River and Greatest Honour registered similar excellent speed figures while breaking their maiden and are ranked high by Steve.
Olympiad is by Speightstown who had already sired two G1 winners at 1 ¼ mile (Golden Ticket and Haynesfield) and like Essential Quality also descends from Secrettame, Terlingua and Weekend Surprise … (forgive my fixation but this is Secretariat site after all!)
The Bill Mott’s prospect is not blowing any hats in his current workouts at Payson Park but he should be ready by mid-February to attempt the Derby trial and see where he stands at that point.
He got relegated to the second week because its been so long since he’s run. Pay no attention to workout times at PP That track is always slow and works theere are always slow. But horses get fit there. As I said he will be in KOTD next week.
Well it seems I have missed a few promising three year olds. I’m going to have to go back and watch a few races.
I just watched Senor Buscador races and, as related by Steve, his rallies are really really impressive. His stunning late charge makes Senor Buscador a big player in the trail specially because he does not seem to be pace dependent.
His speed figure in the Remington Springboard Mile was very high despite having traveled much more distance than the rest. He annihilated a decent field that included two G1 (turf) competitors in Cowan and Outadore.
Great ride by Luis Quinonez who was the regular pilot of another very good deep closer and also son of Mineshaft named Suddenbreakingnews; who started his career at Remington Park as well and finished a very respectable close 5th to Nyquist in the 2016 Derby.
Senor Buscador is half to Runaway Ghost (also trained by Todd Fincher) a very courageous runner winner of the Sunland Derby who made some noise in the Derby trail until an injury sidelined him for 11 months.
The son of Mineshaft is a very exciting deep closer perhaps in the same league as Monarchos, Dullahan, Creator and Exaggerator…!
My question mark on Senor Buscador is around bleeding risks… his trainer said that he ran with Lasix as “a prevention measure” because he was stretching to a mile from 5 1/2 furlong.
Can not help it in thinking about horses like Catholic Boy who could not have made it without Lasix. Many may remember how bad he bled in the Florida Derby… that setback took him out of contention for the Derby. He recovered rather well to win the Belmont Derby and the Travers though… !
Anyways, Senor Buscador is a true eyecatcher and it would be very interesting to watch him going forward…!
No way to predict anything with Lasix but a number of horses have run with it so we’ll just have to see how it plays out,
Nelson, here is a an extract from: “EIPH – Bleeding In Performance Horses” from the website – horsemedcare.com
“How Common is EIPH?
To answer this question, we need to define what EIPH is. Once upon a time, before the advent of endoscopes, a horse was called a “bleeder” only when it shed blood from their nose after a race (epistaxis). However, research studies have shown that epistaxis occurs in only an extremely small percentage of racehorses that actually bleed (1-2%).”
Hopefully, this ease your concerns somewhat.
Many thanks Davids for the suggestion … I am ultimately confident about his trainer doing the right thing for his horse. Tod Fincher does not seem to be bothered about missing 10 Derby points and perhaps he is positive about Buscador being able to snatch enough points in bigger races…!
When a horse is required to do in a race what it hasn’t been required to do in training. It is likely be experience EIPH.
The trainer of Senor Buscador wasn’t confident he had done enough extensive 8F training with the colt ahead of the race. The administration of Lasix was to prevent any likely bleeding from any shortfall in the colt’s training.
I didn’t gather from his statement the colt had a bleeding issue.
Great analysis as usual Steve on your Dozen! I will check back with you next week when I put my bets in on KDFW2.
Thanks Joe, good luck with your bets
Happy new year, Steve! It’s great to see the return of your Derby Rankings. I’m looking forward to watching Greatest Honour against winners. I hope he doesn’t continue to run from the back of the pack. More to say when the KDFW PPs are posted. 🙂
Happy New Year Eddie. He’s run against Caddo River twice and he was pretty close up against Known Agenda in that great stretch duel.
Buon anno, Eddie. It’s been an age since I’ve seen your moniker. Hope you’ve been well.
Nice to see your Kentucky Derby 2021 contender list of three-year-olds to kickoff the year. Will follow your comments and monitor the Derby preps each week. The next three months will likely whiz by and before we know it, and it will be the two weeks leading up to KD 2021.
Traveled to Las Vegas weekend of January 9-10 and visited Circa Sports Book (Downtown Las Vegas) and William Hill Sports Book (well-off the Strip). Made three future book wagers (minor amounts). There is one horse that I have not heard about since a disappointing run in BC Juvenile (dirt). Name is Next, sired by Not This Time and trained by Wesley Ward. Do you have any info on this colt? Is he in current training and on the Derby Trail?
Thanks for your new Derby column and good luck this year.
He hasnt worked since the Breeders Cup and his race was so bad I’m sure something happened to him
Interesting overview regarding Essential Quality.
“his pedigree is just OK with way too much inbreeding for my liking and his dam and third dam being pure sprinters.”
I likewise do not like too much inbreeding. But given that Charismatic had just as much and emerged a KD winner. This feature of EQ’s pedigree can be overlooked.
I do not share the concerns regarding his dam and 3rd dam. The sire of his dam and 3rd dam ( Elusive Quality/Fappiano) both sired KD winners. (Unbridled/Smarty Jones) Further, both dam sires also sired BCC winners (Unbridled/ Raven’s Pass)
It must be assumed that both dams have sufficient stamina in their gene pool. Where they fall short Tapit should make up.
“He had a perfect setup in the Breeders’ Juvenile”
The above could be interpreted that EQ was the chief beneficiary of the quick internal fractions. I was surprised he was so far off the pace. EQ won on debut over 6F completed in 1:09+. He displayed tactical speed in his Breeder Futurity win. Given his two previous starts, his come from behind win in the BCJ indicated just how classy and versatile he is.
The only concern I have with EQ has to do with his size. He carries a big frame. He paddles and with his bulk that could eventually be a problem with soundness.
If he wasnt that far back he probably would have been hurt by the pace. He is versatile and I like that about him
Nice 1st list Steve. So much is up in the air this early in the campaign. I was kind of high on Jackie’s Warrior but not sure what to think now. I watched the Lecomte, it was a pretty slow race all the way around. I thought the favorite Mandaloun hung badly down the lane plus the fractions were kinda slow. Enforceable who won this race last year ran about 5 lengths faster then this year. At least it was a race for 3 year olds that is now in the books. Hopefully it won’t be long before we get to see many more notables.
Thank you Steve for our 1st edition of the 2021 Derby Dozen. It is a sight for sore eyes.
The surface at FG has been retuning slow times. Regular Guy finished second by 1 1/2L in a MSW over 8F at CD. The final time was completed in 1:35+. He broke his maiden at FG over 8 1/2F in 1:45+
I was a bit disappointed in Jackie’s Warrior’s run in the BC Juvenile until Steve wrote that his performance there was rather a good one… watching the race again made me realize just that.
Being focused on Essential Quality live made me ignore the suicidal pace (i.e. 45 1/5 for the half mile) driven by no other than Dreamer’s Disease who, as hinted by Steve, had the mission to drain all the speedy horses to favor his stable mate Keepmeinmind.
It was mission accomplished given how the horses that contested the rabbit threw the towel in the stretch (Likeable and Classier) and how effectively Hot Rod Charlie and Keemmeinmind closed to finish second and third respectively. In light of that plot the fourth place by The Warrior (only 3 lengths behind the champ) is indeed better than I thought originally especially considering that it was actually his first two-turn test.
There are reservations about the ability of Jackie’s Warrior (as a son of Mclean’s Music) to excel at the Classic distance; but his sire has already given us Preakness winner, Cloud Computing who, like The Warrior, also got A.P. Indy in his maternal side as a sure source of stamina.
If Essential Quality and Jackie’s Warrior clash again in the February 15 Southwest Stakes without any rabbit pushing a lung-breaking tempo I can envision the Champagne winner turning the tables on the champ. My bet is that Asmussen would also somehow teach his first ever Champagne winner to relax so as to make stretching more suitable.
From that point on there still is a long road to the Roses…!
Trust me, Nelson, Jackies Warrior is an immesnely gifted horse. He ran great in the BC but thats a lot different than going 10f in the Derby. He was forced to come off the pace and couldnt do it, but I can definitely see him beating Essential Quality in the Southwest, but that wouldnt make him a Derby horse either. He has to adapt to different scenarios
The way you describe Keepmeinmind–relentless closer–strongly reminds me of Victory Gallop, his damsire. I remember especially Victory Gallop’s sweeping, relentless (good word for it!) run in the Stephen Foster.
Yes he does take after his grandsire
So nice to find this semblance of normalcy and the reminder that spring is coming. Thanks for all of the great info
Steve, I’m confused – in the discussion of Greatest Honour’s pedigree, you said his dam is half sister to Rags to Riches and Jazil, but if I understand this pedigree stuff, actually half sib to both of them, not his dam. Isn’t his dam a daughter of Street Cry and therefore half sib to Z and Winx? help!
Siblings only apply to the mother.
Thanks Steve, so Greatest Honor is half brother to Rags to Riches and Jazil. You said his dam was half sister to them. His dam is mother to them, right?
No, Linda. Rags to Riches is a half sister to Tiffany’s Honour. Tiffany’s Honour is the dam of Greatest Honour.
This is the family of the blue hen, Best in Show. Just search for ‘Best in Show, blue hen’ and numerous websites will show you the influence of this family around the world.
Very interesting read. I would love to see any Tapit win the Derby. He obviously has won the Belmont but I just want to see a Tapit win the derby
Great list in both categories. Let the fun begin
I always enjoy travelling the KYD trail with you Steve and we are honored to see our boy Senor Buscador ranked highly on your list. I look forward to following all of these great athletes all the way to May, and prayers that they all stay healthy!
Good luck with him Joe. It should be a fun ride for sure.
As a fervent fan of Secretariat and a follower of Godolphin I am delighted to see Essential Quality leading his class in route to the Run for the Roses.
We all know that the genetic legacy of Secretariat has been mostly carried by three of his daughters: Weekend Surprise, Secrettame and Terlingua… and guess what! Essential Quality flashes all these three genetic diamonds in his fourth generation; three beams of pure class converging in the build of the champion.
Essential Quality sets Godolphin closer than ever to get the very much sought for Derby Trophy. Their first American champion two-year old could be the breakthrough leading to perhaps their best Derby act ever as well.
Since 1999 Godolphin has partaken in nine Kentucky Derbies. The first five attempts involved a fruitless strategy of taking the Dubai route (via UAE Derby). From 2012 onwards some Royal Blue prospects started to purposely take the American Derby Trail. This approach was relatively more successful as Frosted came in 4th in 2015 and Maxfield last year was among the top three Winter Book favorites before a minor injury took him out of the BC Juvenile.
However, a globetrotter and UAE Derby winner named Thunder Snow brought renewed hopes to Godolphin in the 2017 Kentucky Derby. But the son of Helmet decided to go rodeo over ponds in the track and was just a great bucking colt for few seconds before being eased.
As it happens to every champion in any sport there are a lot of challengers trying to put Essential Quality down for the count; and there are a lot of very good horses primed to just do that during the months leading to the Derby… Steve’s Derby rankings will be steadily unveiling all of those plausible contenders.
You brought Maxfield to our attention after his last to first maiden win. I am firmly of the opinion he should a have been Champion 2YO.
Darley/ Godolphin was the owner of Midshipman when he won the BCJ. If my recollection is correct he was 2YO Champion.
Thanks for the reply… You are right about that. I was meaning to say homebred champion… but could not edit with the right adjective.
I remember when they constructed an exact duplicate track as Churchill Downs…I was impressed,, and made a big wager on Godolfin, I think it was in the Monarchos Derby, was it Essence if Dubai? Finished 6th I think, right alongside the big favorite whose name I cannot remember, one of Bob B’s best…..
Nelson, don’t forget Proxy, and possibly Lidstrom.
Yahooie!
Great list Steve. Really look forward to this every winter. Spring comes early for those of us who follow your Derby Dozen. Nice to see Hard Spun’s kids getting into the picture, as well as Curlin and Street Sense. That class 2007 was so talented. Giddy Up Y’all, Steve is back in the saddle and that alone makes this the beginning of Derby Season.
Do you recall that Scat Daddy was a member of the Derby class of 2007. He finished 18th. He sires a TC winner and the big 3 are yet to sire a KD winner.
Go figure!
its true, stamina laden horses don’t seem to sire as well as the middle distance ones, I couldn’t tell you why, I thought Authentic was an exceptional race horse, and this year am looking forward to a good crop…..not too many of the top three year olds from last year are still in training, Maxfield, Idol, Kiss Today Goodbye…not a lot…..looking forward to the new faces, 2021 Triple Crown Trail!
Great to see you back
At last we got the rankings again!!!…what a great way to start the week!!!!!..Thanks very much for all your hard work Steve, I really appreciate your insights…I am also a little concerned about EQ inbreeding but hoping for the best since I really like him and I think Tapit definitely deserves a Derby winner
Thanks Neo, welcome aboard
Happy to see Steve’s Derby ranking off to a great start in its new home Secretariat.com.
Steve’s assessments of Derby hopefuls for more than 20 years have confirmed him as a Master of his craft. To me the opportunity to participate in this wonderful Haskinian tour is a true privilege… !
The journey to “the most exciting two minutes in sports” is even more enlivening if we take the road together… it is perhaps more fun as most people realize that there is no wrong or right in horse racing. The staunchest egos crumble like a house of cards in a storm when it comes to foretelling outcomes in horse racing.
I am looking forward to the upcoming (15) enlightening weekly Haskin Derby rankings (HDR) and the accompanying sensible comments from Steve’s followers.
Let’s enjoy all the beautiful horses trying to make history with the thunder of their hooves…!
Hear, hear!
Happy New Year Eddie… looking forward to reading your witty and informative comments…!
Back at ya, Nelson!
Awesome seeing SteveO back in action!!!!
Always love the first rankings and seeing where everyone rises and falls as we go along. Last year at this time I had already made up my mind – Tiz the Law – but this year I have no strong choices, other than my own “tail hairs owned” (MRH)3yo, Solar Strike, who hasn’t even started yet but I can dream…..
The rankings are here! A treat to be savored with a cup of coffee on this holiday Monday. I love all the pedigree notes you include. Little pieces of the puzzle that help explain these lightly raced 3 year olds when there aren’t a lot of lines in the past performances. Some exciting prospects to watch as the road winds towards the first Saturday in May. Looking forward to travel that road with you, Steve.
Thank you Karren, keep those comments coming 🙂
Hey Steve, I’m just a truck driver that rides a percheron for pleasure lol. I’ve never hung at the track. Yet I’ve been hooked since I saw the big chestnut in 73. Thanks for your wealth of knowledge and staying faithful to the track.
Kudos for mentioning the inbred pedigree of #1 EQ. This has been a concern of mine for many years now. Now more than ever I think there may be an elephant in the room when I see the increasing # of breakdowns per capita. Is it possible that the hens are coming home to roost? I wonder if the black cloud hanging over Santa Anita has something to do with our apatite for taking short cuts. My opinion, at some point we need to clean the barn, I know that’s easier said than done. What are your thoughts on this matter of replicating the gene pool? Thank always
Hi there Steve this much inbreeding, especially so much to Mr. Prospector could be one of the causes of all the injuries at least in my opinion. There are some complete outcrosses which I will be mentioning because theey are so rare these days
Steve, it’s only a maiden race BUT….Roman Centurian passed eight in the last 1/2 mile, and poured it on late—Simon Callaghan knows how to handle a good horse–nearly winning the Roses with Firing Line, a horse who would have won many Kentucky Derbies with that run—also–Life Is Good–went :46 and change in the Sham, that track was very deep and slow that day—I think he is for real, has Precisionist-like easy moving SPEED—perhaps he will not like ten furlongs as much as he likes shorter trips—but back to Roman Centurian—I can’t wait to see him going longer, I KNOW it’s just a maiden race—but my eyes told me this is a serious race horse! One more thing Steve….your old employer reports Jerry Hollendorfer has several Frank Stronach owned horses in his barn, and that is all they said—do you think there is a rift in the Stronach family? Or…is this more of an olive branch to a man who has been uprooted from his home, and has lost so much of his stable?
There has always been a rift in the Stronach family, but I applaud them. He has paid his dues for sure. I dont know enough to condemn him, but I hope he does well for them
Steve, so happy your rankings are back! What a great way to start the week. This column lets me know whom to watch for in the upcoming preps. I really appreciate that you mention horses’ running styles; that way, if I’m watching a horse who is, say, a deep closer, I know not to worry if he’s far back early on.
Will be interested to see what you say about Midnight Bourbon next week.
I had just finished reading last week’s column on Baffert and Pletcher when the new Derby Rankings popped up. What a treat on cold January Monday morning! As usual, Steve, you’ve introduced me to several promising Derby trail horses that I hadn’t even heard of (and bear watching), notably Roman Centurion. An amazingly comprehensive overview, even at this early date when so many of these horses are, frankly, undeveloped. I hope all of the rankings will continue to be available after new ones are posted so we can continue to suck every bit of juice out of each one. Thanks, Steve!
They will all be there in the archives at the top of the main page. All my columns are there
It would be a great story if Senor Buscador if swept them from the clouds….